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Ibragimov's covariance inequality: ∣operatornamecov(U,V)∣le2sqrtvarphi(n),sigmaUsigmaV|\\operatorname{cov}(U,V)| \\le 2\\sqrt{\\varphi(n)}\\,\\sigma_U \\sigma_V∣operatornamecov(U,V)∣le2sqrtvarphi(n),sigmaU​sigmaV​

Proved
MarkovChainCLT.abs_covariance_le_two_mul_sqrt_phiMixingCoef

by Gabewhigham · Sep 4, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-chainsmixingprobability

Let (Yi)i≥0(Y_i)_{i \ge 0}(Yi​)i≥0​ be a sequence of random variables on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), let k,n≥0k, n \ge 0k,n≥0, and let

A=σ(Y0,…,Yk),B=σ(Yk+n,Yk+n+1,… )\mathcal A = \sigma(Y_0, \dots, Y_k), \qquad \mathcal B = \sigma(Y_{k+n}, Y_{k+n+1}, \dots)A=σ(Y0​,…,Yk​),B=σ(Yk+n​,Yk+n+1​,…)

be the corresponding past and future σ\sigmaσ-algebras. Let φ(n)\varphi(n)φ(n) denote the uniform (φ-) mixing coefficient of the sequence at lag nnn,

φ(n)=sup⁡k sup⁡{∣P(B∣A)−P(B)∣:A∈σ(Y0,…,Yk), P(A)≠0, B∈σ(Yk+n,… )}.\varphi(n) = \sup_{k}\ \sup\left\{ \left| P(B \mid A) - P(B) \right| : A \in \sigma(Y_0,\dots,Y_k),\ P(A) \neq 0,\ B \in \sigma(Y_{k+n}, \dots) \right\}.φ(n)=ksup​ sup{∣P(B∣A)−P(B)∣:A∈σ(Y0​,…,Yk​), P(A)=0, B∈σ(Yk+n​,…)}.

Then for all square-integrable UUU measurable with respect to A\mathcal AA and VVV measurable with respect to B\mathcal BB,

∣cov⁡(U,V)∣  ≤  2φ(n) Var⁡U Var⁡V.\bigl|\operatorname{cov}(U, V)\bigr| \;\le\; 2\sqrt{\varphi(n)}\,\sqrt{\operatorname{Var} U}\,\sqrt{\operatorname{Var} V}.​cov(U,V)​≤2φ(n)​VarU​VarV​.

This is Ibragimov's covariance inequality in the case p=q=2p = q = 2p=q=2: it is the pairwise form of the Cogburn–Ibragimov comparison ρ(n)≤2φ(n)\rho(n) \le 2\sqrt{\varphi(n)}ρ(n)≤2φ(n)​ between the maximal-correlation and uniform-mixing coefficients, and taking the supremum over all admissible pairs (U,V)(U,V)(U,V) turns this inequality into that comparison.

The classical argument interpolates between two endpoint estimates for the centered conditional-expectation operator Sg=E[g∣A]−EgS g = E[g \mid \mathcal A] - E gSg=E[g∣A]−Eg acting on B\mathcal BB-measurable variables, namely ∥S∥L∞→L∞≤2φ(A,B)\|S\|_{L^\infty \to L^\infty} \le 2\varphi(\mathcal A, \mathcal B)∥S∥L∞→L∞​≤2φ(A,B) and ∥S∥L1→L1≤2φ(B,A)≤2\|S\|_{L^1 \to L^1} \le 2\varphi(\mathcal B, \mathcal A) \le 2∥S∥L1→L1​≤2φ(B,A)≤2; the geometric mean of the two bounds gives ∥S∥L2→L2≤2φ(A,B)\|S\|_{L^2 \to L^2} \le 2\sqrt{\varphi(\mathcal A, \mathcal B)}∥S∥L2→L2​≤2φ(A,B)​, and Cauchy–Schwarz then yields the displayed covariance bound. An interpolation-free route to the same L2L^2L2 bound uses that T=S∗ST = S^{*}ST=S∗S is positive and self-adjoint, so that ⟨Tg,g⟩2m≤⟨T2mg,g⟩\langle T g, g\rangle^{2^m} \le \langle T^{2^m} g, g\rangle⟨Tg,g⟩2m≤⟨T2mg,g⟩ by iterated Cauchy–Schwarz, while ∥T2mg∥22≤∥T2mg∥∞∥T2mg∥1\|T^{2^m} g\|_2^2 \le \|T^{2^m} g\|_\infty \|T^{2^m} g\|_1∥T2mg∥22​≤∥T2mg∥∞​∥T2mg∥1​ controls the right-hand side by the endpoint norms; letting m→∞m \to \inftym→∞ gives ∥T∥≤4φ\|T\| \le 4\varphi∥T∥≤4φ.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory MarkovChainCLT
open scoped ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.abs_covariance_le_two_mul_sqrt_phiMixingCoef
    {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E]
    (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (n k : ℕ) (U V : Ω → ℝ)
    (hU : Measurable[processSigma Y (Set.Iic k)] U)
    (hV : Measurable[processSigma Y (Set.Ici (k + n))] V)
    (hU2 : MemLp U 2 P) (hV2 : MemLp V 2 P) :
    |cov[U, V; P]| ≤ 2 * Real.sqrt (phiMixingCoef P Y n) *
      (Real.sqrt (Var[U; P]) * Real.sqrt (Var[V; P])) := by sorry
Source
R. C. Bradley, "Basic Properties of Strong Mixing Conditions. A Survey and Some Open Questions", Probability Surveys 2 (2005) 107-144, arXiv:math/0511078v1, Section 1.1, eq. (1.13): rho(A,B) <= 2[phi(A,B)]^{1/2}[phi(B,A)]^{1/2}, attributed there to Cogburn (1960) and Ibragimov (1962); this problem is the pairwise (covariance) form of that inequality, i.e. Ibragimov's covariance inequality with p = q = 2; see also J. L. Doob, Stochastic Processes (1953), p. 222, Lemma 7.1.

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