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Expected Shortfall is decreasing in the depth

Proved
CoherentRisk.es_antitone

by viratkota · Sep 6, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

operations-researchprobability

Expected Shortfall is antitone in the depth: widening the tail reports less risk. Formally, if a≤ba \le ba≤b then ES(X,b)≤ES(X,a)\mathrm{ES}(X,b) \le \mathrm{ES}(X,a)ES(X,b)≤ES(X,a).

This is the monotonicity that the ExpectedShortfall definition asserts informally in its docstring. It is proved here by induction on the gap between the two depths, each single step being the un-normalised one-step inequality: dividing that inequality by the product of the two group sizes, both positive, turns it into the comparison of averages.

Combined with the fact that Expected Shortfall at depth 000 is the worst-case measure, it identifies depth 000 as the maximum of the entire family and recovers the earlier bound ES(X,m)≤worstCase(X)\mathrm{ES}(X,m) \le \mathrm{worstCase}(X)ES(X,m)≤worstCase(X) as the special case a=0a = 0a=0.

As throughout CoherentRisk, the development counts states and refers to no probability measure, so the depth is an integer count rather than a confidence level.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_ExpectedShortfall

open CoherentRisk
Formal statement
namespace CoherentRisk

theorem es_antitone {n : ℕ} (X : Fin (n+1) → ℝ) (a b : Fin (n+1))
    (hab : (a:ℕ) ≤ (b:ℕ)) : ES X b ≤ ES X a := by
  sorry

end CoherentRisk
Source
C. Acerbi and D. Tasche, On the coherence of expected shortfall, Journal of Banking and Finance 26 (2002) 1487-1503, Section 3, on expected shortfall as a decreasing function of the tail size

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