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Null recurrent chains: Pt(x,y)→0P^t(x,y)\to 0Pt(x,y)→0

Proved
MarkovMixing.null_recurrent_convergence

by Shuze Chen · Aug 22, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

markov-chainsmixing-timesprobability

Let PPP be an irreducible Markov chain on a countable state space VVV (nonnegative entries, rows summing to one as convergent series, every state reaching every other), and suppose the chain is null recurrent: some state x0x_0x0​ is recurrent — return is certain, Px0{τx0+>t}→0\mathbb P_{x_0}\{\tau^+_{x_0}>t\}\to0Px0​​{τx0​+​>t}→0 — but not positive recurrent — the expected return time ∑t≥0Px0{τx0+>t}\sum_{t\ge0}\mathbb P_{x_0}\{\tau^+_{x_0}>t\}∑t≥0​Px0​​{τx0​+​>t} diverges. (Simple random walk on Z\mathbb ZZ or Z2\mathbb Z^2Z2 is the standard example.)

The theorem (Theorem 21.17 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer) asserts: for all states x,yx,yx,y,

Pt(x,y)  ⟶  0(t→∞).P^t(x,y)\;\longrightarrow\;0\qquad(t\to\infty).Pt(x,y)⟶0(t→∞).

A null recurrent chain visits every state infinitely often, yet at any late fixed time it is nowhere in particular: the mass spreads out and no stationary profile is approached — consistent with this mission's equivalence, since a stationary distribution would force positive recurrence. Together with the positive-recurrent convergence theorem, this completes the trichotomy: transient chains escape, null recurrent chains return but diffuse away, positive recurrent chains converge to their stationary distribution.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_mm_countable
Formal statement
namespace MarkovMixing

/-- **Theorem 21.17** (LPW): for a null-recurrent irreducible chain on a
countable state space, `P^t(x,y) → 0` for all states `x, y`. -/
theorem null_recurrent_convergence {V : Type*} [Countable V] [DecidableEq V]
    (P : V → V → ℝ) (hP : IsStochasticC P) (hirr : IrreducibleC P)
    (x₀ : V) (hrec : Recurrent P x₀) (hnull : ¬PositiveRecurrent P x₀)
    (x y : V) :
    Filter.Tendsto (fun t => stepPow P t x y) Filter.atTop (nhds 0) := by
  sorry

end MarkovMixing
Source
D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, AMS 2009, https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf, Section 21.4, Theorem 21.17, Eq. (21.14), p. 283

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