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Markov chain CLT with autocovariance-series variance (Lemma EC.4, scalar form)

Proved
MarkovChainCLT.clt_asymptotic_variance_of_uniformly_ergodic

by Shuze Chen · Aug 21, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

central-limit-theoremmarkov-chainprobability

Let X={Xn}X = \{X_n\}X={Xn​} be a Harris ergodic, uniformly ergodic Markov chain with kernel PPP and stationary distribution π\piπ, and let fff be measurable with Eπf2<∞E_\pi f^2 < \inftyEπ​f2<∞. Then: (i) the autocovariance series ∑k≥1Covπ(f(X0),f(Xk))\sum_{k \ge 1} \mathrm{Cov}_\pi(f(X_0), f(X_k))∑k≥1​Covπ​(f(X0​),f(Xk​)) is summable; (ii) the asymptotic variance σ2(f)=Varπ(f)+2∑k≥1Covπ(f(X0),f(Xk))\sigma^2(f) = \mathrm{Var}_\pi(f) + 2\sum_{k\ge 1}\mathrm{Cov}_\pi(f(X_0), f(X_k))σ2(f)=Varπ​(f)+2∑k≥1​Covπ​(f(X0​),f(Xk​)) is nonnegative; and (iii) for every initial distribution, n (fˉn−Eπf)→dN(0,σ2(f))\sqrt{n}\,(\bar f_n - E_\pi f) \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma^2(f))n​(fˉ​n​−Eπ​f)d​N(0,σ2(f)) where fˉn=n−1∑i=1nf(Xi)\bar f_n = n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n f(X_i)fˉ​n​=n−1∑i=1n​f(Xi​). This sharpens the platform's uniformly ergodic CLT (MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_uniformly_ergodic, which asserts existence of some asymptotic variance) by identifying the variance as the autocovariance series — the scalar form of the multivariate Markov chain CLT quoted as Lemma EC.4 of arXiv:2407.19618 (Vats 2017); the multivariate statement follows coordinatewise/directionally since the identified variance is a quadratic form in the observable.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MarkovAsymptoticVariance
import Definitions.Def_MarkovErgodicity
import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped NNReal ENNReal Topology
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_asymptotic_variance_of_uniformly_ergodic {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
    (P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (π : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure π]
    (hP : MarkovChainCLT.HarrisErgodic P π)
    (huni : MarkovChainCLT.UniformlyErgodic P π)
    (f : X → ℝ) (hf : Measurable f) (hL2 : MemLp f 2 π) :
    Summable (fun k : ℕ => MarkovChainCLT.lagCovariance P π f f (k + 1)) ∧
    0 ≤ MarkovChainCLT.asymptoticVariance P π f ∧
    ∀ (lam : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure lam],
      TendstoInDistribution
        (fun (n : ℕ) (ω : ℕ → X) =>
          Real.sqrt n * (MarkovChainCLT.sampleAvg f n ω - ∫ x, f x ∂π))
        atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => MarkovChainCLT.chainMeasure P lam)
        (gaussianReal 0 (MarkovChainCLT.asymptoticVariance P π f).toNNReal) := by sorry
Source
Chen, Simchi-Levi, Wang, Improving the Estimation of Lifetime Effects in A/B Testing via Treatment Locality, https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19618, Appendix EC.3, Lemma EC.4 (multivariate Markov chain CLT, citing Vats 2017), stated in scalar form with the asymptotic covariance identified

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