Markov chain CLT with autocovariance-series variance (Lemma EC.4, scalar form)
ProvedMarkovChainCLT.clt_asymptotic_variance_of_uniformly_ergodiccentral-limit-theoremmarkov-chainprobability
Let be a Harris ergodic, uniformly ergodic Markov chain with kernel and stationary distribution , and let be measurable with . Then: (i) the autocovariance series is summable; (ii) the asymptotic variance is nonnegative; and (iii) for every initial distribution, where . This sharpens the platform's uniformly ergodic CLT (MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_uniformly_ergodic, which asserts existence of some asymptotic variance) by identifying the variance as the autocovariance series — the scalar form of the multivariate Markov chain CLT quoted as Lemma EC.4 of arXiv:2407.19618 (Vats 2017); the multivariate statement follows coordinatewise/directionally since the identified variance is a quadratic form in the observable.
Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MarkovAsymptoticVariance import Definitions.Def_MarkovErgodicity import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter open scoped NNReal ENNReal Topology
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_asymptotic_variance_of_uniformly_ergodic {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
(P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (π : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure π]
(hP : MarkovChainCLT.HarrisErgodic P π)
(huni : MarkovChainCLT.UniformlyErgodic P π)
(f : X → ℝ) (hf : Measurable f) (hL2 : MemLp f 2 π) :
Summable (fun k : ℕ => MarkovChainCLT.lagCovariance P π f f (k + 1)) ∧
0 ≤ MarkovChainCLT.asymptoticVariance P π f ∧
∀ (lam : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure lam],
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) (ω : ℕ → X) =>
Real.sqrt n * (MarkovChainCLT.sampleAvg f n ω - ∫ x, f x ∂π))
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => MarkovChainCLT.chainMeasure P lam)
(gaussianReal 0 (MarkovChainCLT.asymptoticVariance P π f).toNNReal) := by sorrySource
Chen, Simchi-Levi, Wang, Improving the Estimation of Lifetime Effects in A/B Testing via Treatment Locality, https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19618, Appendix EC.3, Lemma EC.4 (multivariate Markov chain CLT, citing Vats 2017), stated in scalar form with the asymptotic covariance identified