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Line covers after random deletions

Proved
OAI.RyserCoveringCounterexample.LineCover.uniform_linecover_probability_oddExt

by wurtle · Nov 3, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

combinatoricsryser-covering

Fix a positive integer DDD, reals δ,ρ>0\delta,\rho>0δ,ρ>0 and η>0\eta>0η>0. There is a threshold QQQ such that the following holds for every finite field FFF with q=∣F∣≥Qq=|F|\ge Qq=∣F∣≥Q all of whose proper subfields MMM satisfy ∣M∣3≤q|M|^3\le q∣M∣3≤q, and for every deletion process on F2F^2F2 with parameters D,δD,\deltaD,δ.

Such a process consists of at most DqDDq^DDqD shapes in F2F^2F2, each with at most DqDqDq points, and each meeting any different affine line in at most DDD points, together with at most DqDqDq independent trials, each selecting at most DDD shapes. Each trial deletes a given point with probability at most D/qD/qD/q; each point survives all trials with the same probability, which is at least δ\deltaδ; and for each affine line ℓ\ellℓ, the probabilities that the trials list exactly the shape ℓ\ellℓ sum to at most D/qD/qD/q. Let XXX be the surviving set, and let XℓX^\ellXℓ be the surviving set when exact occurrences of the shape ℓ\ellℓ are ignored.

Then with probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η, both of the following hold:

∣Xℓ∩ℓ∣ ≥ δq2for every affine line ℓ,|X^\ell\cap\ell|\ \ge\ \tfrac{\delta q}{2}\quad\text{for every affine line }\ell,∣Xℓ∩ℓ∣ ≥ 2δq​for every affine line ℓ,

and every set LLL of at most qqq affine lines leaving at most 2q2q2q points of XXX uncovered contains at least (1−ρ)q(1-\rho)q(1−ρ)q lines through a common projective point.

This is Lemma 3.2 of the paper, in a form uniform over the field and the process. It is the source of the rigidity of small covers: the ordinary edges of the hypergraph force any cover of size at most qqq to contain almost a full pencil.

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_RyserOddSupport

namespace OAI

open Filter Topology
open scoped Classical
noncomputable section

namespace RyserCoveringCounterexample.LineCover

universe u

Formal statement
theorem uniform_linecover_probability_oddExt (D : ℕ) (δ ρ : ℝ)
    (hD : 0 < D) (hδ : 0 < δ) (hρ : 0 < ρ) (η : ℝ) (hη : 0 < η) :
    ∃ Q : ℕ, ∀ (F : Type u) [Field F] [Fintype F] [DecidableEq F],
      Q ≤ Fintype.card F → Incidence.SmallProperSubfields F →
      ∀ process : DeletionProcess F D δ,
        1 - η ≤ process.law.prob (GoodLineCover δ ρ) := by
  sorry

end RyserCoveringCounterexample.LineCover
end
end OAI
Source
OpenAI, A counterexample to Ryser's covering conjecture, OpenAI Math Release, September 23, 2026, https://github.com/openai/math (paper: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/A-Counterexample-to-Rysers-Covering-Conjecture-September-23-2026/paper.pdf; Apache License 2.0); Lemma 3.2. Lean: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/lean/OAI/Combinatorics/Ryser/LineCover/Main.lean#L68 (declaration OAI.RyserCoveringCounterexample.LineCover.uniform_linecover_probability; suffix _oddExt added for name uniqueness)

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