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§3, p. 5, example after (8) — the optimal policies are exactly π = (1, 0.7, s) with s ≤ 0.4, all stochastic, with utility 0.66

Proved
StrategicPolicy.StochasticOpt.section3_example

by mikedeng1 · Oct 16, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

counterexampledecision-policyp2o-batch-pfp2ap2o-gran-per-chapterp2o-plan-paperp2o-v1stochastic-policystrategic-classification

Consider the three-value instance of §3: x∈{1,2,3}x\in\{1,2,3\}x∈{1,2,3}, γ=0.1\gamma=0.1γ=0.1, P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5), P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1\mid x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4) and the cost matrix of p. 5, with individuals best responding by (5) and tie-break (ii). Let u(π,γ)u(\pi,\gamma)u(π,γ) be the strategic utility (7), and call a policy optimal if it maximizes uuu over all policies π\piπ with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

  1. A policy π\piπ is optimal if and only if
π(x=1)=1,π(x=2)=0.7,π(x=3)≤0.4.\pi(x=1)=1,\qquad \pi(x=2)=0.7,\qquad \pi(x=3)\le0.4 .π(x=1)=1,π(x=2)=0.7,π(x=3)≤0.4.
  1. No optimal policy is deterministic: every optimal policy takes some value outside {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}.
  2. The policy π∗=(1,0.7,0)\pi^*=(1,0.7,0)π∗=(1,0.7,0) has utility u(π∗,γ)=0.66u(\pi^*,\gamma)=0.66u(π∗,γ)=0.66.

In particular the policy printed in the paper, (1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0), is optimal, and in contrast with the non-strategic setting, where the deterministic threshold rule is optimal, every strategic optimum is stochastic, even though the cost is outcome monotonic.

Formalization Note The paper prints a single optimal policy; the optimum is not unique, and item 1 states the full set (at π(x=3)=0.4\pi(x=3)=0.4π(x=3)=0.4 the individuals at x=3x=3x=3 tie between staying and moving to x=2x=2x=2, and tie-break (ii) sends them to x=2x=2x=2). In Lean the feature values 1,2,31,2,31,2,3 are the indices 0,1,20,1,20,1,2. Optimality is IsMaxOn over the whole set [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3, not over a finite grid.

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_StrategicPolicy_StochasticOpt_Setting
import Definitions.Def_StrategicPolicy_StochasticOpt_Example
Formal statement
namespace StrategicPolicy.StochasticOpt

theorem section3_example :
    (∀ π ∈ Policies 3,
      IsMaxOn (u p0 q0 γ0 c0) (Policies 3) π ↔ (π 0 = 1 ∧ π 1 = 7 / 10 ∧ π 2 ≤ 2 / 5)) ∧
    (∀ π ∈ Policies 3, IsMaxOn (u p0 q0 γ0 c0) (Policies 3) π → ¬ IsDeterministic π) ∧
    u p0 q0 γ0 c0 ![1, 7 / 10, 0] = 33 / 50 := by sorry

end StrategicPolicy.StochasticOpt
Source
Tsirtsis et al., Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, arXiv:1905.09239v5, p. 5, §3, example after (8)
Human review
  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Oct 16, 2026

    Confirmed by the moderator at approval.

  • Endorsed by mikedeng1 · Oct 16, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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