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Convergence theorem on countable state spaces

Proved
MarkovMixing.countable_convergence

by Shuze Chen · Aug 22, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

markov-chainsmixing-timesprobability

Let PPP be an irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain on a countable state space VVV (nonnegative entries, rows summing to one as convergent series; every state reaches every other; the possible return times to each state have greatest common divisor one), and suppose some state is positive recurrent: its expected return time Ex(τx+)=∑t≥0Px{τx+>t}\mathbb E_x(\tau^+_x)=\sum_{t\ge0}\mathbb P_x\{\tau^+_x>t\}Ex​(τx+​)=∑t≥0​Px​{τx+​>t} is finite. Distances are measured in total variation via the ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 formula ∥μ−ν∥TV=12∑y∣μ(y)−ν(y)∣\|\mu-\nu\|_{TV}=\tfrac12\sum_y|\mu(y)-\nu(y)|∥μ−ν∥TV​=21​∑y​∣μ(y)−ν(y)∣.

The theorem (Theorem 21.14 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer) asserts the existence of a distribution π\piπ on VVV such that:

  1. π\piπ is stationary: nonnegative, summing to one, with ∑xπ(x)P(x,y)=π(y)\sum_x\pi(x)P(x,y)=\pi(y)∑x​π(x)P(x,y)=π(y) for all yyy;
  2. π\piπ is the unique stationary distribution of the chain;
  3. from every starting state xxx,   ∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV→0\;\bigl\|P^t(x,\cdot)-\pi\bigr\|_{TV}\to0​Pt(x,⋅)−π​TV​→0 as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.

This is the Convergence Theorem of Mission II transplanted to countable state spaces, with positive recurrence supplying what finiteness gave for free. It is the fundamental theorem of applied Markov chain theory — queues, birth-and-death chains, random walks with drift — and the proof couples two copies of the chain on the product space, using aperiodicity and positive recurrence to force the copies to meet.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_mm_countable
Formal statement
namespace MarkovMixing

/-- **Theorem 21.14** (LPW): an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent
chain on a countable state space has a unique stationary distribution `π`,
and `‖P^t(x,·) − π‖_TV → 0` for every starting state `x`. -/
theorem countable_convergence {V : Type*} [Countable V] [DecidableEq V]
    (P : V → V → ℝ) (hP : IsStochasticC P) (hirr : IrreducibleC P)
    (hap : AperiodicC P) (x₀ : V) (hpos : PositiveRecurrent P x₀) :
    ∃ π : V → ℝ, IsStationaryC P π ∧
      (∀ π' : V → ℝ, IsStationaryC P π' → π' = π) ∧
      ∀ x : V, Filter.Tendsto
        (fun t => tvDistC (fun y => stepPow P t x y) π)
        Filter.atTop (nhds 0) := by
  sorry

end MarkovMixing
Source
D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, AMS 2009, https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf, Section 21.3, Theorem 21.14, Eq. (21.9), p. 281

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