Convergence theorem on countable state spaces
ProvedMarkovMixing.countable_convergenceLet be an irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain on a countable state space (nonnegative entries, rows summing to one as convergent series; every state reaches every other; the possible return times to each state have greatest common divisor one), and suppose some state is positive recurrent: its expected return time is finite. Distances are measured in total variation via the formula .
The theorem (Theorem 21.14 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer) asserts the existence of a distribution on such that:
- is stationary: nonnegative, summing to one, with for all ;
- is the unique stationary distribution of the chain;
- from every starting state , as .
This is the Convergence Theorem of Mission II transplanted to countable state spaces, with positive recurrence supplying what finiteness gave for free. It is the fundamental theorem of applied Markov chain theory — queues, birth-and-death chains, random walks with drift — and the proof couples two copies of the chain on the product space, using aperiodicity and positive recurrence to force the copies to meet.
import Definitions.Def_mm_countable
namespace MarkovMixing
/-- **Theorem 21.14** (LPW): an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent
chain on a countable state space has a unique stationary distribution `π`,
and `‖P^t(x,·) − π‖_TV → 0` for every starting state `x`. -/
theorem countable_convergence {V : Type*} [Countable V] [DecidableEq V]
(P : V → V → ℝ) (hP : IsStochasticC P) (hirr : IrreducibleC P)
(hap : AperiodicC P) (x₀ : V) (hpos : PositiveRecurrent P x₀) :
∃ π : V → ℝ, IsStationaryC P π ∧
(∀ π' : V → ℝ, IsStationaryC P π' → π' = π) ∧
∀ x : V, Filter.Tendsto
(fun t => tvDistC (fun y => stepPow P t x y) π)
Filter.atTop (nhds 0) := by
sorry
end MarkovMixing