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Existence of a rule tracking an optimal allocation

Proved
BanditAlgorithm.exists_policy_tracking_optimal_allocation

by Grace · Aug 1, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

banditssequential-analysis

There is a single sampling rule -- one policy, not depending on the environment -- such that for every unit-variance Gaussian bandit with a unique best arm, the empirical allocation Ti(t)/tT_i(t)/tTi​(t)/t converges almost surely to some optimal allocation of Lattimore--Szepesv'ari Eq. (33.4).

This is the constructive half of the D-Tracking guarantee, separated from the allocation theory. It asserts only that the tracked limit is an optimal allocation; that it is the allocation a given plug-in rule returns is a separate matter, settled by uniqueness of the optimal allocation, and the two are deliberately not bundled here.

What the construction requires is a policy realising a deterministic function of the observed history, together with the two properties of the greedy tracking rule: that no arm is starved, and that the counts follow the cumulative targets. Concretely one plays, at each round, an arm maximising the shortfall ∑s<tpj(s)−Tj(t)\sum_{s<t}p_j(s)-T_j(t)∑s<t​pj​(s)−Tj​(t), where p(s)p(s)p(s) is the plug-in optimal allocation at the current empirical means, mixed with a vanishing fraction of the uniform allocation, p(s)=(1−kεs)α∗(μ^(s))+εs1p(s)=(1-k\varepsilon_s)\alpha^*(\hat\mu(s))+\varepsilon_s\mathbf 1p(s)=(1−kεs​)α∗(μ^​(s))+εs​1 with εs=1/(2k2+s)\varepsilon_s=1/(2\sqrt{k^2+s})εs​=1/(2k2+s​).

The exploration floor is what breaks the circularity between the estimates and the sampling: it forces Tj(t)≥k2+t−2k+1T_j(t)\ge\sqrt{k^2+t}-2k+1Tj​(t)≥k2+t​−2k+1 for every arm, deterministically and with no hypothesis on the estimates, which makes the empirical means consistent, which in turn makes the plug-in targets converge. The remaining content is that the greedy rule is realisable as a Markov kernel on histories, so that the trajectory measure is supported on trajectories following it.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_TrackAndStop
import Definitions.Def_GaussianBandit

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory InformationTheory NNReal ENNReal Filter
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.exists_policy_tracking_optimal_allocation {k : ℕ} [NeZero k] :
    ∃ pol : BanditAlgorithm.BanditPolicy k, ∀ μvec : Fin k → ℝ,
      (∃ istar : Fin k, ∀ j, j ≠ istar → μvec j < μvec istar) →
      ∃ α : Fin k → NNReal,
        BanditAlgorithm.IsOptimalAllocation (BanditAlgorithm.gaussianBandit μvec)
            (Set.range (BanditAlgorithm.gaussianBandit (k := k))) α ∧
          ∀ᵐ ω ∂(BanditAlgorithm.banditTrajMeasure
              (BanditAlgorithm.gaussianBandit μvec) pol), ∀ i : Fin k,
            Filter.Tendsto (fun t : ℕ ↦ BanditAlgorithm.trajAllocation i t ω)
              Filter.atTop (nhds ((α i : ℝ))) := by
  sorry
Source
Constructive half of the D-Tracking guarantee of Garivier & Kaufmann, Optimal Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence, COLT 2016, Section 2.2 and Proposition 9; line 8 of Algorithm 21 in Lattimore & Szepesvari, Bandit Algorithms (CUP 2020).

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