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The exact distribution of a random delay

Proved
OpenSearchElectionTimer.randomDelay_card

by pitimespi · Nov 1, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

cluster-coordinationconsensuselasticsearchelection-schedulerformal-verificationleader-electionlivenessmathlibopensearchprobabilityrandomized-timeoutunion-bound

For all natural numbers M and d with 1 ≤ M ≤ 2^63 and 1 ≤ d ≤ M: the number of draws x : Fin (2^64) with randomDelay M x = d is exactly 2 · (⌊(2^63 − d) / M⌋ + 1).

Equivalently, writing 2^63 = qM + r with 0 ≤ r < M, each of the delays 1, …, r has probability (q + 1) / 2^63 and each of the delays r + 1, …, M has probability q / 2^63, for a draw uniform over the 2^64 longs: nonNegative maps the longs two-to-one onto [0, 2^63), and the residues modulo M of [0, 2^63) occur q + 1 or q times. The distribution is uniform exactly when M divides 2^63.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_OpenSearchElectionTimer
open OpenSearchPreVote OpenSearchElectionTimer
Formal statement
theorem OpenSearchElectionTimer.randomDelay_card (M d : Nat) (hM : 1 ≤ M) (hM' : M ≤ 2 ^ 63)
    (hd : 1 ≤ d) (hdM : d ≤ M) :
    (Finset.univ.filter (fun x : Fin (2 ^ 64) => randomDelay M x = d)).card = 2 * ((2 ^ 63 - d) / M + 1) := by sorry
Source
OpenSearch b2a54ba5c0defba3d1d20423e911d4bf920bab19: ElectionSchedulerFactory (documented delay distribution lines 71-83, settings 85-115, constructor 124-144, nonNegative 159-161, toPositiveLongAtMost 163-172, scheduleNextElection 195-241 with the bound at 203, the delay at 204 and the next attempt scheduled with the election duration as grace period at 218): https://github.com/opensearch-project/OpenSearch/blob/b2a54ba5c0defba3d1d20423e911d4bf920bab19/server/src/main/java/org/opensearch/cluster/coordination/ElectionSchedulerFactory.java#L62-L254; Coordinator (the scheduler built over the node's Random lines 262-263, the scheduler started after bootstrapping at 1158 and when a candidate has found a quorum of peers 1534-1550, startElectionScheduler 1567-1618 with grace period 0 at 1574, the same Random used to choose a node to abdicate to at 1818): https://github.com/opensearch-project/OpenSearch/blob/b2a54ba5c0defba3d1d20423e911d4bf920bab19/server/src/main/java/org/opensearch/cluster/coordination/Coordinator.java; DiscoveryModule (each node's Random created as new Random(Randomness.get().nextLong()), line 213): https://github.com/opensearch-project/OpenSearch/blob/b2a54ba5c0defba3d1d20423e911d4bf920bab19/server/src/main/java/org/opensearch/discovery/DiscoveryModule.java#L213; java.util.Random (a 48-bit linear congruential generator; nextLong): https://docs.oracle.com/en/java/javase/21/docs/api/java.base/java/util/Random.html; maxDelay, nonNegative and toPositiveLongAtMost as transcribed by the OpenSearchPreVote mission
Read-back

What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-opus-5-5 (independent sub-agent, blind: Lean code + auditor instructions only)

Read-back: OpenSearchElectionTimer.randomDelay_card

Notions used

Draws. A draw is an element xxx of Fin(264)={0,…,264−1}\mathrm{Fin}(2^{64}) = \{0, \dots, 2^{64}-1\}Fin(264)={0,…,264−1}, read as the Java long toLong(x)=x−263\mathrm{toLong}(x) = x - 2^{63}toLong(x)=x−263.

nonNegative. nonNegative(n)=0\mathrm{nonNegative}(n) = 0nonNegative(n)=0 if n=−263n = -2^{63}n=−263, and ∣n∣|n|∣n∣ otherwise.

randomDelay. randomDelay(M,x)=(nonNegative(x−263) mod M)+1\mathrm{randomDelay}(M, x) = (\mathrm{nonNegative}(x - 2^{63}) \bmod M) + 1randomDelay(M,x)=(nonNegative(x−263)modM)+1, with the natural-number remainder (and a mod 0=aa \bmod 0 = aamod0=a).

Notation. #S\#S#S is the number of elements of a finite set SSS. ⌊a/b⌋\lfloor a / b \rfloor⌊a/b⌋ is natural-number floor division, and a−˙ba \mathbin{\dot-} ba−˙​b is truncated subtraction.

1. Declaration

theorem OpenSearchElectionTimer.randomDelay_card (M d : Nat) (hM : 1 ≤ M) (hM' : M ≤ 2 ^ 63)
    (hd : 1 ≤ d) (hdM : d ≤ M) :
    (Finset.univ.filter (fun x : Fin (2 ^ 64) => randomDelay M x = d)).card = 2 * ((2 ^ 63 - d) / M + 1)

Binders: M,d∈NM, d \in \mathbb{N}M,d∈N.

Hypotheses, in order:

  • hM:1≤MhM : 1 \le MhM:1≤M;
  • hM′:M≤263hM' : M \le 2^{63}hM′:M≤263;
  • hd:1≤dhd : 1 \le dhd:1≤d;
  • hdM:d≤MhdM : d \le MhdM:d≤M.

Conclusion (an equation in N\mathbb{N}N):

#{x∈Fin(264):randomDelay(M,x)=d}  =  2(⌊263−˙dM⌋+1).\#\{x \in \mathrm{Fin}(2^{64}) : \mathrm{randomDelay}(M, x) = d\} \;=\; 2\left(\left\lfloor \frac{2^{63} \mathbin{\dot-} d}{M} \right\rfloor + 1\right).#{x∈Fin(264):randomDelay(M,x)=d}=2(⌊M263−˙​d​⌋+1).

Because d≤M≤263d \le M \le 2^{63}d≤M≤263, the subtraction is never truncated.

Unfolded. The left side counts the draws xxx with nonNegative(x−263)≡d−1(modM)\mathrm{nonNegative}(x - 2^{63}) \equiv d - 1 \pmod MnonNegative(x−263)≡d−1(modM). Dividing by 2642^{64}264 gives the probability of delay ddd under a uniform 64-bit draw:

Pr⁡[randomDelay(M,x)=d]=⌊(263−d)/M⌋+1263.\Pr[\mathrm{randomDelay}(M, x) = d] = \frac{\lfloor (2^{63}-d)/M\rfloor + 1}{2^{63}} .Pr[randomDelay(M,x)=d]=263⌊(263−d)/M⌋+1​.

Equivalent form (my rewriting). Let q=⌊263/M⌋q = \lfloor 2^{63}/M \rfloorq=⌊263/M⌋ and ρ=263 mod M\rho = 2^{63} \bmod Mρ=263modM. The right side equals 2(q+1)2(q+1)2(q+1) when d≤ρd \le \rhod≤ρ, and 2q2q2q when d>ρd > \rhod>ρ. Summing the right side over d∈[1,M]d \in [1, M]d∈[1,M] gives 2642^{64}264, as it must.

Examples:

  • M=1M = 1M=1, d=1d = 1d=1: 2642^{64}264, i.e. every draw.
  • M=263M = 2^{63}M=263: exactly 222 draws for every ddd.
  • M=10000M = 10000M=10000: here ρ=5808\rho = 5808ρ=5808 and q=922337203685477q = 922337203685477q=922337203685477. Each d≤5808d \le 5808d≤5808 has 2⋅9223372036854782 \cdot 9223372036854782⋅922337203685478 draws, and each d≥5809d \ge 5809d≥5809 has 2⋅9223372036854772 \cdot 9223372036854772⋅922337203685477.

2. What is not constrained

  • hdhdhd is needed. For d=0d = 0d=0 the true count is 000, but the right side would be 2(⌊263/M⌋+1)>02(\lfloor 2^{63}/M\rfloor + 1) > 02(⌊263/M⌋+1)>0.
  • hdMhdMhdM is needed. For example, with M=1M = 1M=1 and d=2d = 2d=2 the count is 000, but the right side is positive.
  • hM′hM'hM′ is needed. If M>263M > 2^{63}M>263 and 263<d≤M2^{63} < d \le M263<d≤M, the count is 000 (delays never exceed 2632^{63}263), but the right side is 2((263−˙d)div⁡M+1)=22((2^{63} \mathbin{\dot-} d) \operatorname{div} M + 1) = 22((263−˙​d)divM+1)=2.
  • hMhMhM is redundant. It follows from hdhdhd and hdMhdMhdM, since 1≤d≤M1 \le d \le M1≤d≤M.
  • M=263M = 2^{63}M=263 is allowed. This is not a Java long value (the maximum is 263−12^{63}-1263−1). The extension is harmless.
  • Idealization. The count is over all 2642^{64}264 elements of Fin(264)\mathrm{Fin}(2^{64})Fin(264), i.e. a uniform 64-bit draw. The definitions file's docstring acknowledges that Java's nextLong() takes only 2482^{48}248 distinct values. The theorem says nothing about the real generator.
  • Satisfiable, not vacuous. The hypotheses hold for example with M=d=1M = d = 1M=d=1.

3. Plain-language summary

Take a bound MMM with 1≤M≤2631 \le M \le 2^{63}1≤M≤263 and a value ddd with 1≤d≤M1 \le d \le M1≤d≤M. Exactly 2(⌊(263−d)/M⌋+1)2(\lfloor (2^{63}-d)/M\rfloor + 1)2(⌊(263−d)/M⌋+1) of the 2642^{64}264 possible draws give random delay ddd. So the delay is exactly uniform on [1,M][1, M][1,M] when MMM divides 2632^{63}263. Otherwise, the first 263 mod M2^{63} \bmod M263modM values each have two more draws than the rest.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Nov 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the moderator at approval.

  • Endorsed by pitimespi · Nov 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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