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Eqs. (1)–(2): the coordinated profit is concave and maximized at ρC\rho^CρC

Proved
FalseFailureReturns.TargetRebate.coord_profit_concave_max

by mikedeng1 · Sep 28, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

concavityp2o-batch-p200bp2o-gran-per-chapterp2o-plan-paperp2o-v1supply-chain

Let a>0a > 0a>0 be the marginal effort cost, β>0\beta > 0β>0 the expected number of false failures at minimum effort, and Mm>0M_m > 0Mm​>0, Rr>0R_r > 0Rr​>0 the manufacturer's and retailer's profits of avoiding one false failure return. The coordinated supply chain's expected profit

Π(ρ)=(Mm+Rr) β(1−1ρ)−aρ22\Pi(\rho) = (M_m + R_r)\,\beta\Big(1 - \frac{1}{\rho}\Big) - \frac{a\rho^2}{2}Π(ρ)=(Mm​+Rr​)β(1−ρ1​)−2aρ2​

is concave on ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, and it is maximized over ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0 at the coordinated effort

ρC=[Mm+Rra β]1/3.\rho^C = \Big[\frac{M_m + R_r}{a}\,\beta\Big]^{1/3}.ρC=[aMm​+Rr​​β]1/3.

This identifies ρC\rho^CρC as the effort level a coordinating contract has to induce.

Formalization Note Concavity and maximality are stated on the open half-line ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, where the formula is meaningful; the effort domain ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1 of the paper is contained in it, and ρC≥1\rho^C \ge 1ρC≥1 in the interesting case (see the next milestone).

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_FalseFailureReturns_TargetRebate_Model
Formal statement
namespace FalseFailureReturns.TargetRebate

theorem coord_profit_concave_max (P : Params)
    (ha : 0 < P.a) (hβ : 0 < P.β) (hM : 0 < P.Mm) (hR : 0 < P.Rr) :
    ConcaveOn ℝ (Set.Ioi 0) (coordProfit P) ∧
      IsMaxOn (coordProfit P) (Set.Ioi 0) (coordEffort P) := by sorry

end FalseFailureReturns.TargetRebate
Source
Ferguson, Guide & Souza, Supply Chain Coordination for False Failure Returns, MSOM 8(4) 2006, p. 381, §3, Eqs. (1)–(2)
Human review
  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Oct 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the moderator at approval.

  • Endorsed by mikedeng1 · Oct 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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