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Finite-exposure union bound: averaging conditional bounds over good atoms

Proved
OAI.Problem310.ExposureUnionBound.measure_le_of_finite_exposure

by Shuze Chen · Oct 16, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

inequalitiesmeasure-theoryoai-mathprobability

Let (Ω,F,μ)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mu)(Ω,F,μ) be a probability space, AAA a finite set and f:Ω→Af:\Omega\to Af:Ω→A a map whose fibers {f=a}={ω∈Ω:f(ω)=a}\{f=a\}=\{\omega\in\Omega: f(\omega)=a\}{f=a}={ω∈Ω:f(ω)=a} are measurable for every a∈Aa\in Aa∈A (an exposure with finitely many possible values). Let E⊆ΩE\subseteq\OmegaE⊆Ω be an arbitrary event, G⊆AG\subseteq AG⊆A a set of good values, and β,γ∈[0,∞]\beta,\gamma\in[0,\infty]β,γ∈[0,∞]. Assume

  1. the exposure is bad with small probability: μ({ω:f(ω)∉G})≤β\mu(\{\omega: f(\omega)\notin G\})\le\betaμ({ω:f(ω)∈/G})≤β;
  2. on every good fiber, EEE has small relative mass: μ(E∩{f=a})≤γ μ({f=a})\mu(E\cap\{f=a\})\le\gamma\,\mu(\{f=a\})μ(E∩{f=a})≤γμ({f=a}) for every a∈Ga\in Ga∈G.

Then

μ(E)≤β+γ.\mu(E)\le\beta+\gamma .μ(E)≤β+γ.

The point is that the conditional bounds on the good atoms are averaged against the law of fff, so no factor ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ appears even though AAA may be very large. This is how a failure probability is bounded by first revealing a finite amount of randomness (for instance, everything that is read at one point), discarding the unfavourable revelations, and then using a uniform conditional estimate on the favourable ones.

Formalization Note EEE is not assumed measurable: for a non-measurable set, μ(E)\mu(E)μ(E) is the outer measure, and only monotonicity and subadditivity are used. The bounds β,γ\beta,\gammaβ,γ are extended nonnegative reals (ENNReal).

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_DyadicAvoidance
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_PeriodicBasic
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_GridSeparation
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_FiniteTableModel
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_OrderedRouting
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_RoutingPath
import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_CenterRouteExposure

open OAI OAI.Problem310
universe u_Ω u_A u_I
open MeasureTheory
open scoped BigOperators
Formal statement
theorem OAI.Problem310.ExposureUnionBound.measure_le_of_finite_exposure
    {Ω : Type u_Ω} {A : Type u_A} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype A]
    (μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
    (f : Ω → A) (hf : ∀ a, MeasurableSet {ω | f ω = a})
    (E : Set Ω) (good : Set A) (badBound goodBound : ENNReal)
    (hbad : μ {ω | f ω ∉ good} ≤ badBound)
    (hgood : ∀ a ∈ good,
      μ (E ∩ {ω | f ω = a}) ≤ goodBound * μ {ω | f ω = a}) :
    μ E ≤ badBound + goodBound := by sorry
Source
https://github.com/openai/math/blob/1581d4cbdd69a0faf34b2089614fe2a814316a6a/lean/OAI/MeasureTheory/DyadicAvoidance/ExposureUnionBound.lean#L14-L50

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