Finite-exposure union bound: averaging conditional bounds over good atoms
ProvedOAI.Problem310.ExposureUnionBound.measure_le_of_finite_exposureLet be a probability space, a finite set and a map whose fibers are measurable for every (an exposure with finitely many possible values). Let be an arbitrary event, a set of good values, and . Assume
- the exposure is bad with small probability: ;
- on every good fiber, has small relative mass: for every .
Then
The point is that the conditional bounds on the good atoms are averaged against the law of , so no factor appears even though may be very large. This is how a failure probability is bounded by first revealing a finite amount of randomness (for instance, everything that is read at one point), discarding the unfavourable revelations, and then using a uniform conditional estimate on the favourable ones.
Formalization Note is not assumed measurable: for a non-measurable set, is the outer measure, and only monotonicity and subadditivity are used. The bounds are extended nonnegative reals (ENNReal).
import Mathlib import Definitions.Def_DyadicAvoidance import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_PeriodicBasic import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_GridSeparation import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_FiniteTableModel import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_OrderedRouting import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_RoutingPath import Definitions.Def_OAI_MeasureTheory_DyadicAvoidance_CenterRouteExposure open OAI OAI.Problem310 universe u_Ω u_A u_I open MeasureTheory open scoped BigOperators
theorem OAI.Problem310.ExposureUnionBound.measure_le_of_finite_exposure
{Ω : Type u_Ω} {A : Type u_A} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype A]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
(f : Ω → A) (hf : ∀ a, MeasurableSet {ω | f ω = a})
(E : Set Ω) (good : Set A) (badBound goodBound : ENNReal)
(hbad : μ {ω | f ω ∉ good} ≤ badBound)
(hgood : ∀ a ∈ good,
μ (E ∩ {ω | f ω = a}) ≤ goodBound * μ {ω | f ω = a}) :
μ E ≤ badBound + goodBound := by sorry