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Step 0 of the martingale CLT: truncation at level 2 is asymptotically harmless

Proved
Martingale.clt_truncation_matches_of_lt

by LukeBernese · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

central-limit-theoremmartingaleprobability

First step of the proof of the martingale CLT. Replace the difference array Dn,kD_{n,k}Dn,k​ by its truncation

Zn,k=Dn,k 1{∑j<kDn,j2≤2}.Z_{n,k} = D_{n,k}\,\mathbf{1}\Bigl\{\textstyle\sum_{j<k} D_{n,j}^2 \le 2\Bigr\}.Zn,k​=Dn,k​1{∑j<k​Dn,j2​≤2}.

The indicator depends only on Dn,jD_{n,j}Dn,j​ for j<kj < kj<k, so it is measurable with respect to the past and {Zn,k}\{Z_{n,k}\}{Zn,k​} is again a martingale difference array — that is exactly why the sum inside the indicator stops before kkk. The claim is that this substitution does not change the limit: the difference of the two row sums tends to 000 in probability.

The reason is that the two row sums coincide on the event that the running sum of squares never exceeds the threshold, and under the limiting-variance hypothesis ∑k<nDn,k2⇒σ2\sum_{k<n} D_{n,k}^2 \Rightarrow \sigma^2∑k<n​Dn,k2​⇒σ2 with σ2<2\sigma^2 < 2σ2<2 that event has probability tending to one. The purpose of the truncation is to make the increments bounded, so that the expansion of the characteristic function in the main argument converges.

The hypothesis σ2<2\sigma^2 < 2σ2<2 is necessary, not cosmetic. If the limiting variance exceeded the truncation level the indicator would switch off with asymptotically positive probability and the two row sums would genuinely differ. The classical presentations take σ≡1\sigma \equiv 1σ≡1 without loss of generality — one may always rescale — and the threshold 222 is then simply a fixed constant comfortably above 111; stating the lemma for general σ\sigmaσ requires carrying that inequality explicitly. This supersedes an earlier version of this statement which omitted it and is therefore false for σ2>2\sigma^2 > 2σ2>2.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Probability.Martingale.Basic
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInMeasure
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem Martingale.clt_truncation_matches_of_lt {Ω : Type*} {m0 : MeasurableSpace Ω}
    (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (D : ℕ → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
    (hmeas : ∀ n k, Measurable (D n k))
    (σ : ℝ) (hσ2 : σ ^ 2 < 2)
    (hvar : TendstoInMeasure P
      (fun (n : ℕ) ω => ∑ k ∈ Finset.range n, D n k ω ^ 2) atTop (fun _ => σ ^ 2)) :
    TendstoInMeasure P
      (fun (n : ℕ) ω => (∑ k ∈ Finset.range n, D n k ω)
        - ∑ k ∈ Finset.range n, (Set.indicator
            {ω' | ∑ j ∈ Finset.range k, D n j ω' ^ 2 ≤ 2} (D n k) ω))
      atTop (fun _ => 0) := by sorry
Source
B. M. Brown, "Martingale Central Limit Theorems", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 42 (1971) 59-66, Theorem 2; D. L. McLeish, "Dependent Central Limit Theorems and Invariance Principles", Annals of Probability 2 (1974) 620-628, Theorem 2.3; P. Hall and C. C. Heyde, Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application, Academic Press 1980, Theorem 3.2 and its proof.

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