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p. 8876, discussion of Lemma 8(b.1) — uninformed followers at mean quality exceed the average over an H- and an L-type

Proved
FakeAccounts.Platform.uninformed_jensen

by mikedeng1 · Oct 14, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

concavityp2o-batch-pfp2ap2o-gran-per-chapterp2o-plan-paperp2o-v1platformsignaling

Let nun(qˉ)=(1−l)(1−c/qˉ)n_{un}(\bar q)=(1-l)(1-c/\bar q)nun​(qˉ​)=(1−l)(1−c/qˉ​) be the number of uninformed followers when the expected quality given the signal is qˉ\bar qqˉ​, and E[q]=ρqH+(1−ρ)qLE[q]=\rho q_H+(1-\rho)q_LE[q]=ρqH​+(1−ρ)qL​. For every effort ddd whose following cost c=c0+c1(1−τ)dc=c_0+c_1(1-\tau)dc=c0​+c1​(1−τ)d is positive,

ρ nun(qH)+(1−ρ) nun(qL)  <  nun(E[q]).\rho\,n_{un}(q_H)+(1-\rho)\,n_{un}(q_L)\;<\;n_{un}(E[q]).ρnun​(qH​)+(1−ρ)nun​(qL​)<nun​(E[q]).

The left side is the expected number of uninformed followers under a separating equilibrium, the right side the number under pooling.

This is the concavity comparison the paper uses to explain why pooling yields more advertising revenue.

Formalization Note The hypothesis c>0c>0c>0 is added: with c=0c=0c=0 every uninformed consumer follows and both sides equal 1−l1-l1−l, so the page's strict "higher" needs it. The "average" is the ρ\rhoρ-weighted one, as in (11).

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_FakeAccounts_Platform_Setting
Formal statement
namespace FakeAccounts.Platform

/-- p. 8876, discussion of Lemma 8(b.1): with a positive following cost, uninformed followers of
an influencer of mean quality exceed the ρ-weighted average of those of an H- and an L-type. -/
theorem uninformed_jensen (P : Params) (hP : Standing P) :
    ∀ d, 0 < cost P d →
      P.rho * nUn P P.qH d + (1 - P.rho) * nUn P P.qL d < nUn P (meanQ P) d := by sorry

end FakeAccounts.Platform
Source
Huang and Liu, Economics of Social Media Fake Accounts, Management Science 71(10), 2025, p. 8876, paragraph after Lemma 8 ("To see Lemma 8(b.1) …")
Human review
  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Oct 14, 2026

    Confirmed by the moderator at approval.

  • Endorsed by mikedeng1 · Oct 14, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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