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One step of depth for the worst total

Proved
CoherentRisk.worstTotal_step

by viratkota · Sep 6, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

operations-researchprobability

If depth bbb is one deeper than depth aaa, then the worst totals satisfy k⋅worstTotal(X,b)≤(k+1)⋅worstTotal(X,a)k \cdot \mathrm{worstTotal}(X,b) \le (k+1)\cdot \mathrm{worstTotal}(X,a)k⋅worstTotal(X,b)≤(k+1)⋅worstTotal(X,a), where k+1k+1k+1 is the size of a competing group at depth bbb.

The argument avoids any appeal to sorting or to binomial counting. Take a group SSS of k+1k+1k+1 states attaining the worst total at depth bbb. Deleting any single member leaves a group of kkk states, which is a legitimate competitor at depth aaa; hence for every i∈Si \in Si∈S we get worstTotal(X,a)≥worstTotal(X,b)+Xi\mathrm{worstTotal}(X,a) \ge \mathrm{worstTotal}(X,b) + X_iworstTotal(X,a)≥worstTotal(X,b)+Xi​. Summing these k+1k+1k+1 inequalities and using that the total payoff on SSS is exactly −worstTotal(X,b)-\mathrm{worstTotal}(X,b)−worstTotal(X,b) collapses the sum to the stated bound.

As throughout CoherentRisk, the development counts states and refers to no probability measure, so the depth is an integer count rather than a confidence level.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_ExpectedShortfall

open CoherentRisk
Formal statement
namespace CoherentRisk

theorem worstTotal_step {n : ℕ} (X : Fin (n+1) → ℝ) (a b : Fin (n+1))
    (hab : (b:ℕ) = (a:ℕ) + 1) :
    worstTotal X b * (((a:ℕ) : ℝ) + 1) ≤ worstTotal X a * (((b:ℕ) : ℝ) + 1) := by
  sorry

end CoherentRisk
Source
C. Acerbi and D. Tasche, On the coherence of expected shortfall, Journal of Banking and Finance 26 (2002) 1487-1503, Section 3, on expected shortfall as a decreasing function of the tail size

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