One step of depth for the worst total
ProvedCoherentRisk.worstTotal_stepoperations-researchprobability
If depth is one deeper than depth , then the worst totals satisfy , where is the size of a competing group at depth .
The argument avoids any appeal to sorting or to binomial counting. Take a group of states attaining the worst total at depth . Deleting any single member leaves a group of states, which is a legitimate competitor at depth ; hence for every we get . Summing these inequalities and using that the total payoff on is exactly collapses the sum to the stated bound.
As throughout CoherentRisk, the development counts states and refers to no probability measure, so the depth is an integer count rather than a confidence level.
Preamble
import Definitions.Def_ExpectedShortfall open CoherentRisk
Formal statement
namespace CoherentRisk
theorem worstTotal_step {n : ℕ} (X : Fin (n+1) → ℝ) (a b : Fin (n+1))
(hab : (b:ℕ) = (a:ℕ) + 1) :
worstTotal X b * (((a:ℕ) : ℝ) + 1) ≤ worstTotal X a * (((b:ℕ) : ℝ) + 1) := by
sorry
end CoherentRiskSource
C. Acerbi and D. Tasche, On the coherence of expected shortfall, Journal of Banking and Finance 26 (2002) 1487-1503, Section 3, on expected shortfall as a decreasing function of the tail size