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Event and complementary event marginal laws imply independent event indicator

Proved
AvramDividend.Classical.indicator_indepFun_of_both_event_marginals

by WillR · Oct 25, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

complement-eventevent-independenceprobabilitystrong-markov

For a probability measure, if both an event A and its complement satisfy the expected factorisation with each measurable inverse image under a random element Y, then the indicator of A is independent of Y.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Probability.Independence.Basic
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Measure.Restrict

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Set
Formal statement
theorem AvramDividend.Classical.indicator_indepFun_of_both_event_marginals
    {Ω β : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace β]
    {P : Measure Ω} [IsProbabilityMeasure P]
    (A : Set Ω) (Y : Ω → β)
    (hA : MeasurableSet A) (hY : Measurable Y)
    (hFirst : ∀ B : Set β, MeasurableSet B →
      P (A ∩ Y ⁻¹' B) = P A * P (Y ⁻¹' B))
    (hSecond : ∀ B : Set β, MeasurableSet B →
      P (Aᶜ ∩ Y ⁻¹' B) = P Aᶜ * P (Y ⁻¹' B)) :
    IndepFun (Set.indicator A (fun _ : Ω => (1 : ℝ))) Y P := by
  sorry
Source
Bridges the proved restricted-map event-marginal identity f2cff3c4-e6ba-4ab0-92c3-ede656bfd82d and the complement stopped-history event lemma 14adf425-f38f-4621-b8d2-fdc1e495b583 to the stochastic full-path joint-law theorem 61930a38-11f1-449e-bbb6-67d59c6d5ca8.

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