Appendix C, property 1 — and are nondecreasing in
ProvedXuMannorRobust.Quantile.property1_monotone_in_levelLet be a nonnegative random variable whose law is a probability measure on with . If , where is allowed only when is bounded above ( for some ), then
where is the -quantile value and the -truncated mean (Definition 3, corrected second branch).
This monotonicity lets the proof of Theorem 5 move between the confidence-shifted levels .
Formalization Note The paper states the property for supported on and arbitrary . The levels are restricted to , and the top level to variables bounded above. At those excluded levels the paper's values are ( for unbounded ; the empty defining set for ), where the inequality holds trivially in the extended reals. Lean's real would falsify it there. No case with finite values is excluded.
import Mathlib import Definitions.Def_XuMannorRobust_Quantile_QuantileTruncatedMean open MeasureTheory
namespace XuMannorRobust.Quantile
/-- **Appendix C, property 1** (Xu & Mannor 2012, p. 415). Let `X` be a random variable with law
`P`, supported on `ℝ⁺` (`P((-∞, 0)) = 0`). If `0 ≤ β₂ ≤ β₁ ≤ 1`, then `ℚ^{β₁}(X) ≥ ℚ^{β₂}(X)` and
`𝕋^{β₁}(X) ≥ 𝕋^{β₂}(X)`. The top level `β₁ = 1` is allowed only when `X` is bounded above
(`P((-∞, M]) = 1` for some `M`): for unbounded `X` the paper's `ℚ¹(X)` is `+∞`, which Lean's real
`sInf ∅ = 0` cannot represent. -/
theorem property1_monotone_in_level (P : Measure ℝ) [IsProbabilityMeasure P]
(hP : P (Set.Iio 0) = 0) (β₁ β₂ : ℝ) (hβ₂ : 0 ≤ β₂) (h21 : β₂ ≤ β₁) (hβ₁ : β₁ ≤ 1)
(hfin : β₁ < 1 ∨ ∃ M : ℝ, P (Set.Iic M) = 1) :
quantileValue P β₂ ≤ quantileValue P β₁ ∧ truncatedMean P β₂ ≤ truncatedMean P β₁ := by sorry
end XuMannorRobust.Quantile
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).
Confirmed by the moderator at approval.