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Proof of Theorem 2, p. 34: EPY[ϑ(∙,z)]=Ξ[Y](z)\mathbb E_{P_Y}[\vartheta(\bullet,z)] = \Xi[Y](z)EPY​​[ϑ(∙,z)]=Ξ[Y](z) (Fubini step)

Proved
LevelSetScores.lintegral_weightedMass

by mikedeng1 · Oct 30, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

level-setsmeasure-theoryprobabilistic-forecastingscoring-rules

Throughout, Rd\mathbb R^dRd carries its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra and Lebesgue measure. Let h≥0h \ge 0h≥0 be a measurable integrable function, dλ(z)=h(z) dzd\lambda(z) = h(z)\,dzdλ(z)=h(z)dz, let the kernel www be an s-finite measure ν\nuν on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, let PPP be a measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd (the law PYP_YPY​ of the observation YYY), and let Ξ\XiΞ be a measurable Lebesgue density of the convolution P∗νP * \nuP∗ν (the paper's Ξ[Y]=fY∗w\Xi[Y] = f_Y * wΞ[Y]=fY​∗w). For a Borel set BBB and y∈Rdy \in \mathbb R^dy∈Rd write μy,w(B)=∫1{y+u∈B} h(y+u) dν(u)\mu_{y,w}(B) = \int \mathbb 1\{y+u \in B\}\, h(y+u)\, d\nu(u)μy,w​(B)=∫1{y+u∈B}h(y+u)dν(u), i.e. ∫w(z−y)1{z∈B}h(z) dz\int w(z-y)\mathbb 1\{z\in B\} h(z)\,dz∫w(z−y)1{z∈B}h(z)dz, and S(B,y)=αλ(B)−μy,w(B)S(B, y) = \alpha\lambda(B) - \mu_{y,w}(B)S(B,y)=αλ(B)−μy,w​(B) for the score (11).

Let hhh be measurable (no sign or integrability condition is needed here). For every Borel set B⊆RdB \subseteq \mathbb R^dB⊆Rd,

∫μy,w(B) dP(y)=∫Bh(z) Ξ(z) dzin [0,∞].\int \mu_{y,w}(B)\, dP(y) = \int_B h(z)\,\Xi(z)\, dz \qquad\text{in } [0,\infty].∫μy,w​(B)dP(y)=∫B​h(z)Ξ(z)dzin [0,∞].

This is the integrated form of the paper's identity EPY[w(z−∙)]=Ξ[Y](z)\mathbb E_{P_Y}[w(z - \bullet)] = \Xi[Y](z)EPY​​[w(z−∙)]=Ξ[Y](z): the expected kernel-weighted mass of BBB is the λ\lambdaλ-integral of the smoothed density over BBB. It turns every expected score into an integral over Rd\mathbb R^dRd.

Formalization Note hhh and Ξ\XiΞ enter through ENNReal.ofReal, i.e. as max⁡(h,0)\max(h,0)max(h,0) and max⁡(Ξ,0)\max(\Xi,0)max(Ξ,0); the identity is between lower Lebesgue integrals.

Differences from the source:

  • reading: f_Y ∗ w, the convolution of the generalized density f_Y (PDF, pmf or mixture) with w, used both as a local Borel measure (Assumption 1(a)) and as a function (Ξ[Y] := (f_Y ∗ w)(z), p. 33) → Ξ is any measurable Lebesgue density of the measure Measure.conv P ν (hypothesis hΞ); reason: for a function kernel w and every P this density is z ↦ ∫ w(z − s) dP_Y(s), the convolution of p. 6; null-set changes of Ξ change no expected score
  • reading: the pointwise identity E_{P_Y}[ϑ(•,z)] = ΞY → its integral against 1_B(z) h(z) dz for every Borel B, in ℝ≥0∞; reason: for a measure kernel ϑ(y,z) = w(z − y) has no pointwise value; the pointwise identity is the hypothesis hΞ itself, and the proof uses it only in this integrated form (passing from ∆′′ to (19))
  • generalization: w a nonnegative local Borel measure (Assumption 1(a)) → ν any s-finite measure on ℝᵈ; w(z − y) is integrated as ∫ φ(y + u) dν(u); reason: locally finite Borel measures on ℝᵈ are s-finite and nonnegative; a function kernel w ≥ 0 is volume.withDensity w and δ₀ is dirac 0, so the source's kernels are instances
  • generalization: P_Y a probability measure in V^d; h ≥ 0 integrable → P any measure; h only measurable (entering as max(h, 0)); reason: the identity holds without these conditions; for a probability P and h ≥ 0 it is the source's
  • generalization: ℝ^d (d ≥ 1 implicitly) → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) for every d : ℕ, including d = 0; reason: the d = 0 instance (a point) is extra and the statement specializes to the source for d ≥ 1
Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_LevelSetScores_weightedMass

open MeasureTheory
open scoped ENNReal
Formal statement
namespace LevelSetScores

/-- **Fubini step: `E_{P_Y}[ϑ(•,z)] = Ξ[Y](z)` integrated over a set.**
Meng, Taylor, Ben Taieb, Li, *Scores for Multivariate Distributions and Level Sets*,
arXiv:2002.09578v6, proof of Theorem 2 (ii), unnumbered, pp. 33–34: "For notational
convenience, for any PX ∈ Vd we write ϑ(y,z) := w(z − y), and Ξ[Y](z) := (fY ∗ w)(z)."
(p. 33) and "Notice that EPY[ϑ(•,z)] = Ξ[Y](z), which implies that" (p. 34).

For every measurable `B`, the `P`-expectation of the weighted mass `µ_{y,w}(B)` is
`∫_B h(z) Ξ(z) dz`, where `Ξ` is a Lebesgue density of the convolution `P ∗ ν`.

**Formalization Note.** The kernel `w` is the s-finite measure `ν` and `f_Y ∗ w` is a Lebesgue
density `Ξ` of `Measure.conv P ν` (hypothesis `hΞ`); `P` may be any measure. The identity is in
`ℝ≥0∞`, so no integrability is needed; `h` and `Ξ` enter through `ENNReal.ofReal`. -/
theorem lintegral_weightedMass {d : ℕ} {h : EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) → ℝ}
    (hh_meas : Measurable h)
    {ν : Measure (EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d))} [SFinite ν]
    {P : Measure (EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d))}
    {Ξ : EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) → ℝ} (hΞ_meas : Measurable Ξ)
    (hΞ : Measure.conv P ν = volume.withDensity (fun z => ENNReal.ofReal (Ξ z)))
    {B : Set (EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d))} (hB : MeasurableSet B) :
    ∫⁻ y, weightedMass h ν B y ∂P =
      ∫⁻ z in B, ENNReal.ofReal (h z) * ENNReal.ofReal (Ξ z) := by sorry

end LevelSetScores
Source
Meng, Taylor, Ben Taieb, Li, Scores for Multivariate Distributions and Level Sets, arXiv:2002.09578v6, proof of Theorem 2 (ii), unnumbered, pp. 33–34 ('Notice that EPY[ϑ(•,z)] = Ξ[Y](z)', p. 34)

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