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Ibragimov's block-independence lemma: ∥E[∏jfj]−∏jE[fj]∥≤16(m−1)α(n)∏jMj\|E[\prod_j f_j]-\prod_j E[f_j]\|\le 16(m-1)\alpha(n)\prod_j M_j∥E[∏j​fj​]−∏j​E[fj​]∥≤16(m−1)α(n)∏j​Mj​

Proved
MarkovChainCLT.abs_integral_prod_sub_prod_integral_le_of_alpha

by Gabewhigham · Sep 5, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

central-limit-theoremmarkov-chainsmixingprobability

Let Y=(Yi)i≥0Y=(Y_i)_{i\ge0}Y=(Yi​)i≥0​ be a measurable process on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with strong mixing coefficients α(n)\alpha(n)α(n). Consider mmm blocks of time indices

[a0,b0], [a1,b1], …, [am−1,bm−1],[a_0,b_0],\,[a_1,b_1],\,\dots,\,[a_{m-1},b_{m-1}],[a0​,b0​],[a1​,b1​],…,[am−1​,bm−1​],

separated by gaps of length at least nnn, that is bj+n≤aj+1b_j+n\le a_{j+1}bj​+n≤aj+1​ for every jjj, and let fjf_jfj​ be a complex random variable measurable with respect to σ(Yi:aj≤i≤bj)\sigma(Y_i: a_j\le i\le b_j)σ(Yi​:aj​≤i≤bj​) with ∥fj∥∞≤Mj\|f_j\|_\infty\le M_j∥fj​∥∞​≤Mj​. Then the expectation of the product factorizes up to an error of 16α(n)16\alpha(n)16α(n) per junction:

∥ E[∏j<mfj]−∏j<mE[fj] ∥  ≤  16 (m−1) α(n)∏j<mMj.\Bigl\|\,E\Bigl[\prod_{j<m}f_j\Bigr]-\prod_{j<m}E[f_j]\,\Bigr\|\;\le\;16\,(m-1)\,\alpha(n)\prod_{j<m}M_j.​E[j<m∏​fj​]−j<m∏​E[fj​]​≤16(m−1)α(n)j<m∏​Mj​.

This is Ibragimov's block-independence lemma, the combinatorial heart of every characteristic-function proof of a central limit theorem for mixing sequences. Taking fj=exp⁡(it Sj)f_j=\exp(\mathrm{i}t\,S_j)fj​=exp(itSj​), where SjS_jSj​ is the sum of the observations in the jjj-th block (so Mj=1M_j=1Mj​=1), it says that the characteristic function of a sum of well-separated big blocks differs from that of independent blocks by at most 16(m−1)α(n)16(m-1)\alpha(n)16(m−1)α(n). In the Bernstein big-block/small-block scheme the number of blocks mmm grows with the sample size while the gap nnn grows fast enough that m α(n)→0m\,\alpha(n)\to0mα(n)→0, which is precisely how a mixing-rate hypothesis such as ∑nα(n)δ/(2+δ)<∞\sum_n\alpha(n)^{\delta/(2+\delta)}<\infty∑n​α(n)δ/(2+δ)<∞ or α(n)=O(an)\alpha(n)=O(a^n)α(n)=O(an) enters the proof.

The bound follows from the two-block case, the covariance inequality ∣E[UV]−E[U]E[V]∣≤16∥U∥∞∥V∥∞α(n)|E[UV]-E[U]E[V]|\le16\|U\|_\infty\|V\|_\infty\alpha(n)∣E[UV]−E[U]E[V]∣≤16∥U∥∞​∥V∥∞​α(n) for bounded complex variables measurable with respect to a past and a future separated by nnn, applied once at each of the m−1m-1m−1 junctions.

Formalization Note The block schedule is given by two sequences a,b:N→Na,b:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Na,b:N→N and the hypotheses constrain only the indices actually used, j<mj<mj<m; blocks are allowed to be arbitrary index intervals rather than consecutive runs. For m=0m=0m=0 and m=1m=1m=1 both sides are 000, so the statement is trivially true there and the constant m−1m-1m−1 is a truncated natural subtraction. Boundedness is stated pointwise.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Integral.Bochner.ContinuousLinearMap

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory MarkovChainCLT
open scoped ProbabilityTheory ENNReal
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.abs_integral_prod_sub_prod_integral_le_of_alpha {Ω E : Type*}
    [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E] (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P]
    (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (hY : ∀ i, Measurable (Y i)) (n : ℕ) (a b : ℕ → ℕ) (f : ℕ → Ω → ℂ)
    (M : ℕ → ℝ) (m : ℕ)
    (hab : ∀ j, j < m → a j ≤ b j)
    (hgap : ∀ j, j + 1 < m → b j + n ≤ a (j + 1))
    (hf : ∀ j, j < m → Measurable[processSigma Y (Set.Icc (a j) (b j))] (f j))
    (hM : ∀ j, j < m → 0 ≤ M j)
    (hfb : ∀ j, j < m → ∀ ω, ‖f j ω‖ ≤ M j) :
    ‖(∫ ω, ∏ j ∈ Finset.range m, f j ω ∂P) - ∏ j ∈ Finset.range m, ∫ ω, f j ω ∂P‖
      ≤ 16 * ((m - 1 : ℕ) : ℝ) * alphaMixingCoef P Y n * ∏ j ∈ Finset.range m, M j := by sorry
Source
I. A. Ibragimov and Yu. V. Linnik, Independent and Stationary Sequences of Random Variables (Wolters-Noordhoff, 1971), Lemma 17.2.1 and Theorem 18.5.3 (the block factorization of characteristic functions under strong mixing); R. C. Bradley, "Basic Properties of Strong Mixing Conditions. A Survey and Some Open Questions", Probability Surveys 2 (2005) 107-144, Theorem 4.4 and the discussion of the Bernstein blocking argument.

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