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Track-and-Stop upper bound: \\limsup_{\\delta\\to0}\\mathbb{E}[\\tau_\\delta]/\\log(1/\\delta)\\le c^*(\\nu)

Proved
BanditAlgorithm.best_arm_identification_track_and_stop_upper_bound

by Grace · Jul 31, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

bandit-algorithmsbest-arm-identificationconcentration

(Track-and-Stop, upper half of Theorem 33.6) Over the class E=ENk(1)\mathcal{E}=\mathcal{E}^k_{\mathcal{N}}(1)E=ENk​(1) of unit-variance Gaussian bandits there exist a policy π\piπ (not depending on δ\deltaδ) and, for each confidence level δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1), a stopping time τδ\tau_\deltaτδ​ of the natural filtration together with an Fτδ\mathcal{F}_{\tau_\delta}Fτδ​​-measurable recommendation rule ψδ\psi_\deltaψδ​, such that:

  1. Soundness. Each triple (π,τδ,ψδ)(\pi,\tau_\delta,\psi_\delta)(π,τδ​,ψδ​) is δ\deltaδ-sound for E\mathcal{E}E.
  2. Finiteness. For every ν∈E\nu\in\mathcal{E}ν∈E with a unique optimal arm and every δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1), the expected stopping time Eνπ[τδ]\mathbb{E}_{\nu\pi}[\tau_\delta]Eνπ​[τδ​] is finite.
  3. Asymptotic upper bound. For every such ν\nuν and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually as δ→0+\delta\to 0^+δ→0+,
Eνπ[τδ]log⁡(1/δ)  ≤  c∗(ν)+ε.\frac{\mathbb{E}_{\nu\pi}[\tau_\delta]}{\log(1/\delta)} \;\le\; c^*(\nu)+\varepsilon .log(1/δ)Eνπ​[τδ​]​≤c∗(ν)+ε.

Clause 3 is the statement lim sup⁡δ→0+Eνπ[τδ]/log⁡(1/δ)≤c∗(ν)\limsup_{\delta\to 0^+}\mathbb{E}_{\nu\pi}[\tau_\delta]/\log(1/\delta)\le c^*(\nu)limsupδ→0+​Eνπ​[τδ​]/log(1/δ)≤c∗(ν), written in its ε\varepsilonε-form so that it is free of the junk values a real-valued limsup takes on a function that is not bounded above.

This is the upper half of L&S Theorem 33.6; the matching lower half is Theorem 33.5, on the platform as BanditAlgorithm.best_arm_identification_sample_complexity_lower_bound. Together the two halves give the limit asserted by Theorem 33.6, and the reduction performing that squeeze is already accepted against the root.

Where the three clauses come from, and a constant that must be watched.

L&S only sketch Theorem 33.6 (p. 410: "we sketch the proof ... a more complete outline is given in Exercise 33.6"), so the pieces have to be assembled from two places.

Clause 1 (soundness) is L&S Lemma 33.7, which is specific to Gaussian bandits: with f(x)=ek−x(x/k)kf(x)=e^{k-x}(x/k)^kf(x)=ek−x(x/k)k on [k,∞)[k,\infty)[k,∞) and the threshold

βt(δ)=klog⁡(t2+t)+f−1(δ),\beta_t(\delta)=k\log(t^2+t)+f^{-1}(\delta),βt​(δ)=klog(t2+t)+f−1(δ),

the Chernoff stopping rule τ=min⁡{t:Zt≥βt(δ)}\tau=\min\{t: Z_t\ge\beta_t(\delta)\}τ=min{t:Zt​≥βt​(δ)} satisfies P(i∗(ν^(τ))≠i∗(ν))≤δ\mathbb{P}(i^*(\hat\nu(\tau))\ne i^*(\nu))\le\deltaP(i∗(ν^(τ))=i∗(ν))≤δ — exactly, at every δ\deltaδ, with no inflation of the leading constant, because f−1(δ)=(1+o(1))log⁡(1/δ)f^{-1}(\delta)=(1+o(1))\log(1/\delta)f−1(δ)=(1+o(1))log(1/δ).

This is the reason clause 1 and clause 3 can hold simultaneously with the constant c∗(ν)c^*(\nu)c∗(ν) itself. It is worth being explicit that the analogous general-exponential-family result of Garivier & Kaufmann (COLT 2016), their Proposition 12, does not suffice here: it requires α>1\alpha>1α>1 in the threshold β(t,δ)=log⁡(Ctα/δ)\beta(t,\delta)=\log(Ct^\alpha/\delta)β(t,δ)=log(Ctα/δ), and combining it with their Theorem 14 yields only lim sup⁡≤αT∗(μ)\limsup \le \alpha T^*(\mu)limsup≤αT∗(μ) for α>1\alpha>1α>1 — as they themselves summarise ("combining Proposition 12 and Theorem 14, one obtains for every α>1\alpha>1α>1 ..."). Anyone attacking this node through the general exponential-family route will land on αT∗\alpha T^*αT∗ and miss the statement; the Gaussian threshold of Lemma 33.7 is what closes the gap.

Clauses 2 and 3 are the content of Garivier & Kaufmann's Proposition 13 (almost-sure finiteness and integrability of τδ\tau_\deltaτδ​ — a separate result, not a corollary of the expectation bound, which is why finiteness is carried here as its own clause: without it the ENNReal.toReal in the root would silently read ∞\infty∞ as 000) and Theorem 14 (the lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup bound). Their dependencies: forced-exploration concentration (Lemma 19), the tracking lemmas (7 and 8), and a Lambert-WWW estimate (Lemma 18). None of these exist in Mathlib.

A bookkeeping caveat for the lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup: Theorem 14 is stated for β(t,δ)=log⁡(r(t)/δ)\beta(t,\delta)=\log(r(t)/\delta)β(t,δ)=log(r(t)/δ) with r(t)=O(tα)r(t)=O(t^\alpha)r(t)=O(tα), α∈[1,e/2]\alpha\in[1,e/2]α∈[1,e/2], and gives αT∗(μ)\alpha T^*(\mu)αT∗(μ), whereas L&S's threshold has r(t)=(t2+t)kr(t)=(t^2+t)^kr(t)=(t2+t)k, i.e. α=2k\alpha=2kα=2k. The α\alphaα in Theorem 14 is an artefact of the explicit (deliberately lossy) solution of c1x≥log⁡(c2xα)c_1x\ge\log(c_2x^\alpha)c1​x≥log(c2​xα) supplied by their Lemma 18: the least such xxx is ∼(log⁡c2)/c1\sim(\log c_2)/c_1∼(logc2​)/c1​, not ∼(αlog⁡c2)/c1\sim(\alpha\log c_2)/c_1∼(αlogc2​)/c1​. Since c2∝1/δc_2\propto 1/\deltac2​∝1/δ and the polynomial factor contributes only O(log⁡log⁡(1/δ))O(\log\log(1/\delta))O(loglog(1/δ)), the true asymptotics are τδ∼c∗(ν)log⁡(1/δ)\tau_\delta\sim c^*(\nu)\log(1/\delta)τδ​∼c∗(ν)log(1/δ) for any polynomial rrr — which is exactly what L&S's proof sketch asserts. A formal proof should therefore redo the Lemma 18 step without the α\alphaα inflation rather than cite Theorem 14 verbatim.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_BanditTrajectory
import Definitions.Def_GaussianBandit


open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter ENNReal
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.best_arm_identification_track_and_stop_upper_bound {k : ℕ}
    (hk : 0 < k) :
    ∃ (π : BanditPolicy k) (τ : ℝ → (ℕ → Fin k × ℝ) → ℕ∞)
      (ψ : ℝ → (ℕ → Fin k × ℝ) → Fin k),
      (∀ δ ∈ Set.Ioo (0 : ℝ) 1,
        ∃ hτ : IsBanditStoppingTime (τ δ),
          Measurable[hτ.measurableSpace] (ψ δ) ∧
            IsSoundBAI δ π (τ δ) (ψ δ) (Set.range (gaussianBandit (k := k)))) ∧
      ∀ ν ∈ Set.range (gaussianBandit (k := k)), (∃! i, i ∈ banditOptimalArms ν) →
        (∀ δ ∈ Set.Ioo (0 : ℝ) 1,
            ∫⁻ ω, (τ δ ω : ℝ≥0∞) ∂banditTrajMeasure ν π ≠ ⊤) ∧
          ∀ ε : ℝ, 0 < ε →
            ∀ᶠ δ in nhdsWithin (0 : ℝ) (Set.Ioi 0),
              (∫⁻ ω, (τ δ ω : ℝ≥0∞) ∂banditTrajMeasure ν π).toReal / Real.log (1 / δ)
                ≤ (baiComplexity ν (Set.range (gaussianBandit (k := k)))).toReal + ε := by
  sorry
Source
Lattimore & Szepesvari, Bandit Algorithms (CUP 2020), Theorem 33.6 p. 410 (upper half) with Lemma 33.7 p. 409 supplying the Gaussian threshold beta_t(delta) = k log(t^2+t) + f^{-1}(delta) that is sound at every delta; the complete expectation analysis is Garivier & Kaufmann, Optimal Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence, COLT 2016 (PMLR v49), arXiv:1602.04589, Proposition 13 (finiteness) and Theorem 14 (limsup). NOTE: G&K Proposition 12 is NOT usable for clause 1 - it requires alpha > 1 and yields only limsup <= alpha T*(mu); the exact constant comes from L&S Lemma 33.7.

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