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Proposition 7 — equilibrium information sharing under concurrent and sequential contracting (production economy)

Disproved
InfoSharing.Economy.proposition_7

by mikedeng1 · Sep 30, 2026 · Mathlib 0df444a (Lean v4.33.1)

contractinginformation-sharingp2o-batch-p200bp2o-gran-per-chapterp2o-plan-paperp2o-v1subgame-perfect-equilibriumsupply-chain

For every ϕ>0\phi > 0ϕ>0 there are thresholds ceC,ceS∈(1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ))c_e^C, c_e^S \in (1/(1+\phi), 2/(1+\phi))ceC​,ceS​∈(1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ)), depending only on ϕ\phiϕ, such that the following holds. Let 0<ce<2/(1+ϕ)0 < c_e < 2/(1+\phi)0<ce​<2/(1+ϕ), put c=−cec = -c_ec=−ce​, and let a,ba, ba,b be reals. Let (θ,Y)(\theta, Y)(θ,Y) satisfy the signal model with variance σ2\sigma^2σ2 and weight β=β(t,σ)\beta = \beta(t,\sigma)β=β(t,σ), let EEE be any family of pricing equilibria with payoff table PPP, and let neZn_e^ZneZ​ be the number of informed manufacturers under concurrent (Z=CZ = CZ=C) or sequential (Z=SZ = SZ=S, for either first mover) information contracting. Then

neZ={0ce<1/(1+ϕ),21/(1+ϕ)≤ce<ceZ,1ceZ≤ce<2/(1+ϕ),n_e^Z = \begin{cases} 0 & c_e < 1/(1+\phi), \\ 2 & 1/(1+\phi) \le c_e < c_e^Z, \\ 1 & c_e^Z \le c_e < 2/(1+\phi), \end{cases}neZ​=⎩⎨⎧​021​ce​<1/(1+ϕ),1/(1+ϕ)≤ce​<ceZ​,ceZ​≤ce​<2/(1+ϕ),​

in the two-clause form: on each region the stated value of nnn is attained by some outcome, and on the interior of the region it is the only value attained (at a boundary point the retailer is indifferent between outcomes). Precisely, with OOO the set of values of nnn over all concurrent outcomes (resp. all SPEs with first mover kkk): O={0}O = \{0\}O={0} for ce<1/(1+ϕ)c_e < 1/(1+\phi)ce​<1/(1+ϕ); 2∈O2 \in O2∈O on [1/(1+ϕ),ceZ)[1/(1+\phi), c_e^Z)[1/(1+ϕ),ceZ​) and O={2}O = \{2\}O={2} on its interior; 1∈O1 \in O1∈O on [ceZ,2/(1+ϕ))[c_e^Z, 2/(1+\phi))[ceZ​,2/(1+ϕ)) and O={1}O = \{1\}O={1} on its interior.

Under production economy the retailer shares information exactly when the economy is large relative to competition, whichever contracting sequence is used.

Formalization Note The production economy model takes c=−cec = -c_ec=−ce​ with 0<ce<2/(1+ϕ)0 < c_e < 2/(1+\phi)0<ce​<2/(1+ϕ) (the Assumption of p. 251). The ex ante profits are those of an equilibrium of the pricing game on the signal model, not the closed forms: the closed forms are the content of the §4.2 milestones. The production cost is the uncapped quadratic bq−ceq2bq - c_e q^2bq−ce​q2 (the paper's cap at qˉ=b/(2ce)\bar q = b/(2c_e)qˉ​=b/(2ce​) is assumed never to bind, footnote 11, p. 251). At ce=1/(1+ϕ)c_e = 1/(1+\phi)ce​=1/(1+ϕ) every profit is independent of nnn, so all three values are attained there. Correction of the paper. The single value ce∗=2+3ϕ(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)c_e^* = \frac{2+3\phi}{(1+2\phi)(1+\phi)}ce∗​=(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)2+3ϕ​ (which lies in (1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ))(1/(1+\phi), 2/(1+\phi))(1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ))) is excluded: there the slope ϕ(1+(1+ϕ)c)/[(1+ϕ)(2+(1+ϕ)c)]\phi(1+(1+\phi)c)/[(1+\phi)(2+(1+\phi)c)]ϕ(1+(1+ϕ)c)/[(1+ϕ)(2+(1+ϕ)c)] of the best response (2) equals −1-1−1, so the pricing stage has a continuum of equilibria with different ex ante profits, and Lemma 1's uniqueness claim, on which the payoff table rests, fails.


Retired. Retired because the concurrent-outcome concept of Def_InfoSharing_Economy_IsConcurrentOutcome (supremum over Pareto-optimal equilibria) is not attained where π_M^I(1) − π_M(0) = π_M^I(2) − π_M^U(1), which refutes the closed threshold clauses (accepted disproof); replaced by InfoSharing.Economy.proposition_7_v2 on the corrected module _v2.

Preamble
import Mathlib
import Definitions.Def_InfoSharing_Shared_IsSignalModel
import Definitions.Def_InfoSharing_Shared_PayoffTable
import Definitions.Def_InfoSharing_Economy_IsConcurrentOutcome
import Definitions.Def_InfoSharing_Shared_IsSequentialSPE
open MeasureTheory
open InfoSharing.Shared
Formal statement
namespace InfoSharing.Economy

/-- **Proposition 7** (Shang, Ha & Tong 2016, p. 256), production economy (`c = −c_e`) under
the Assumption `c_e < 2/(1+φ)`: the equilibrium number `n_e^Z` of informed manufacturers under
concurrent (`Z = C`) and sequential (`Z = S`, either first mover `k`) information contracting,
with thresholds `c_e^C`, `c_e^S` that depend only on `φ`. `ConcOptN P` and `SeqOptN P k` are the
sets of values of `n` over all outcomes; on each region `n` is attained, and it is the only
value in the region's interior (at the region boundaries the retailer is indifferent).

**Correction.** The value `c_e = (2+3φ)/((1+2φ)(1+φ))` is excluded: there the best-response
slope in (2) is `−1`, the pricing stage has a continuum of equilibria with different ex ante
profits, and Lemma 1's uniqueness (on which the paper's payoff table rests) fails. -/
theorem proposition_7 :
    ∀ φ : ℝ, 0 < φ → ∃ cC cS : ℝ,
    1 / (1 + φ) < cC ∧ cC < 2 / (1 + φ) ∧ 1 / (1 + φ) < cS ∧ cS < 2 / (1 + φ) ∧
    ∀ (ce c a b σ β : ℝ) {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (μ : Measure Ω) (θ Y : Ω → ℝ)
      (E : (Fin 2 → Status) → PricingProfile),
      c = -ce → 0 < ce → ce < 2 / (1 + φ) → ce ≠ (2 + 3 * φ) / ((1 + 2 * φ) * (1 + φ)) →
      IsSignalModel μ θ Y σ β →
      IsPricingEqFamily μ θ Y a b c φ β E →
      let P := payoffTable μ θ Y a b c φ E
      ((ce < 1 / (1 + φ) → ConcOptN P = {0}) ∧
         (1 / (1 + φ) ≤ ce → ce < cC → 2 ∈ ConcOptN P) ∧
         (1 / (1 + φ) < ce → ce < cC → ConcOptN P = {2}) ∧
         (cC ≤ ce → 1 ∈ ConcOptN P) ∧
         (cC < ce → ConcOptN P = {1})) ∧
      ∀ k : Fin 2,
        ((ce < 1 / (1 + φ) → SeqOptN P k = {0}) ∧
           (1 / (1 + φ) ≤ ce → ce < cS → 2 ∈ SeqOptN P k) ∧
           (1 / (1 + φ) < ce → ce < cS → SeqOptN P k = {2}) ∧
           (cS ≤ ce → 1 ∈ SeqOptN P k) ∧
           (cS < ce → SeqOptN P k = {1})) := by sorry

end InfoSharing.Economy
Source
Shang, Ha & Tong, Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with a Common Retailer, Management Sci. 62(1) 2016, p. 256, Proposition 7 (thresholds located in the proof, p. 261)
Human review
  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Oct 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the moderator at approval.

  • Endorsed by mikedeng1 · Oct 1, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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