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Robust Optimization

Robust counterparts, uncertainty sets, adaptive policies, and distributionally robust optimization.

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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Variance-based Regularization with Convex Objectives IV: Fast Rates for Approximate Robust Minimizers under a Growth ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

In stochastic optimization and statistical learning one chooses a parameter θ\thetaθ from a set Θ⊆Rd\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^dΘ⊆Rd to make the risk R(θ)=EP[ℓ(θ;X)]R(\theta)=\mathbb E_P[\ell(\theta;X)]R(θ)=EP​[ℓ(θ;X)] small, having seen only a sample X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ from PPP. Generalization bounds suggest trading empirical risk against its standard deviation, but the variance-penalized objective is non-convex even for convex losses. Duchi and Namkoong (arXiv:1610.02581v3) replace it by the robustly regularized risk, the worst-case expected loss over a χ2\chi^2χ2-divergence ball around the empirical distribution. This objective is convex whenever ℓ\ellℓ is, and it agrees with the variance-penalized objective up to a small error.

When the risk has curvature near its minimizers, empirical risk minimization attains rates faster than 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ (Bartlett, Bousquet and Mendelson 2005; Shapiro, Dentcheva and Ruszczyński 2009). Section 4.1 of the paper asks whether minimizers of the robust risk, which carry an extra variance-dependent penalty of order ρ/n\sqrt{\rho/n}ρ/n​, keep these fast rates. Its Theorem 5 answers yes, and does so for approximate minimizers, which is what iterative solvers return.

Setting

A loss ℓ:Rd×X→R\ell:\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal X\to\mathbb Rℓ:Rd×X→R is fixed, with ℓ(⋅;x)\ell(\cdot;x)ℓ(⋅;x) convex and LLL-Lipschitz on a convex set Θ\ThetaΘ for every xxx, and ℓ(θ;⋅)\ell(\theta;\cdot)ℓ(θ;⋅) integrable. The risk is R(θ)=EP[ℓ(θ;X)]R(\theta)=\mathbb E_P[\ell(\theta;X)]R(θ)=EP​[ℓ(θ;X)].

For a radius ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, the χ2\chi^2χ2 ball around the empirical distribution P^n\widehat P_nPn​ is the set of weight vectors

Pn={p∈R+n:12∥np−1∥22≤ρ, ⟨1,p⟩=1},\mathcal P_n=\Big\{p\in\mathbb R^n_+:\tfrac12\|np-\mathbf 1\|_2^2\le\rho,\ \langle\mathbf 1,p\rangle=1\Big\},Pn​={p∈R+n​:21​∥np−1∥22​≤ρ, ⟨1,p⟩=1},

and the robust risk is Rn(θ,Pn)=sup⁡p∈Pn∑ipi ℓ(θ;Xi)R_n(\theta,\mathcal P_n)=\sup_{p\in\mathcal P_n}\sum_i p_i\,\ell(\theta;X_i)Rn​(θ,Pn​)=supp∈Pn​​∑i​pi​ℓ(θ;Xi​).

For ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0 the ϵ\epsilonϵ-suboptimal sets of the risk and of the robust risk are

S⋆ϵ={θ∈Θ:R(θ)≤inf⁡ΘR+ϵ},S^⋆ϵ={θ∈Θ:Rn(θ,Pn)≤inf⁡ΘRn(⋅,Pn)+ϵ},S_\star^\epsilon=\{\theta\in\Theta:R(\theta)\le\inf_\Theta R+\epsilon\},\qquad\widehat S_\star^\epsilon=\{\theta\in\Theta:R_n(\theta,\mathcal P_n)\le\inf_\Theta R_n(\cdot,\mathcal P_n)+\epsilon\},S⋆ϵ​={θ∈Θ:R(θ)≤Θinf​R+ϵ},S⋆ϵ​={θ∈Θ:Rn​(θ,Pn​)≤Θinf​Rn​(⋅,Pn​)+ϵ},

with S⋆=S⋆0S_\star=S_\star^0S⋆​=S⋆0​ the solution set and πS⋆\pi_{S_\star}πS⋆​​ the Euclidean projection onto it. The risk satisfies a growth condition of order γ>1\gamma>1γ>1 if, for some λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and r>0r>0r>0,

R(θ)−inf⁡ΘR ≥ λ dist(θ,S⋆)γwhenever dist(θ,S⋆)≤r.(26)R(\theta)-\inf_\Theta R\ \ge\ \lambda\,\mathrm{dist}(\theta,S_\star)^\gamma\quad\text{whenever }\mathrm{dist}(\theta,S_\star)\le r.\tag{26}R(θ)−Θinf​R ≥ λdist(θ,S⋆​)γwhenever dist(θ,S⋆​)≤r.(26)

The complexity of the problem enters through the localized class {x↦ℓ(θ;x)−ℓ(πS⋆(θ);x):θ∈A}\{x\mapsto\ell(\theta;x)-\ell(\pi_{S_\star}(\theta);x):\theta\in A\}{x↦ℓ(θ;x)−ℓ(πS⋆​​(θ);x):θ∈A} and its empirical Rademacher complexity Rn(A)=Eε[sup⁡θ∈A1n∑iεi(ℓ(θ;Xi)−ℓ(πS⋆(θ);Xi))]\mathfrak R_n(A)=\mathbb E_\varepsilon\big[\sup_{\theta\in A}\frac1n\sum_i\varepsilon_i(\ell(\theta;X_i)-\ell(\pi_{S_\star}(\theta);X_i))\big]Rn​(A)=Eε​[supθ∈A​n1​∑i​εi​(ℓ(θ;Xi​)−ℓ(πS⋆​​(θ);Xi​))], with independent uniform signs εi∈{±1}\varepsilon_i\in\{\pm1\}εi​∈{±1}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 19)

For t>0t>0t>0, ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, and 0<ϵ≤12λrγ0<\epsilon\le\frac12\lambda r^\gamma0<ϵ≤21​λrγ satisfying

ϵ≥(28γLγλ)1γ−1(ρn)γ2(γ−1)andϵ2≥2 E[Rn(S⋆2ϵ)]+L(2ϵλ)1γ2tn,(27)\epsilon\ge\Big(2\frac{8^\gamma L^\gamma}{\lambda}\Big)^{\frac1{\gamma-1}}\Big(\frac\rho n\Big)^{\frac\gamma{2(\gamma-1)}}\quad\text{and}\quad\frac\epsilon2\ge2\,\mathbb E[\mathfrak R_n(S_\star^{2\epsilon})]+L\Big(\frac{2\epsilon}\lambda\Big)^{\frac1\gamma}\sqrt{\frac{2t}n},\tag{27}ϵ≥(2λ8γLγ​)γ−11​(nρ​)2(γ−1)γ​and2ϵ​≥2E[Rn​(S⋆2ϵ​)]+L(λ2ϵ​)γ1​n2t​​,(27) P(S^⋆ϵ⊂S⋆2ϵ) ≥ 1−e−t.\mathbb P\big(\widehat S_\star^\epsilon\subset S_\star^{2\epsilon}\big)\ \ge\ 1-e^{-t}.P(S⋆ϵ​⊂S⋆2ϵ​) ≥ 1−e−t.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Localization (p. 44). Under (26), S⋆2ϵS_\star^{2\epsilon}S⋆2ϵ​ lies in {θ∈Θ:dist(θ,S⋆)≤(2ϵ/λ)1/γ}\{\theta\in\Theta:\mathrm{dist}(\theta,S_\star)\le(2\epsilon/\lambda)^{1/\gamma}\}{θ∈Θ:dist(θ,S⋆​)≤(2ϵ/λ)1/γ}.
  2. Theorem 1, upper half of (10) (p. 7). sup⁡p∈Pn⟨p,z⟩−zˉ≤2ρsn2/n\sup_{p\in\mathcal P_n}\langle p,z\rangle-\bar z\le\sqrt{2\rho s_n^2/n}supp∈Pn​​⟨p,z⟩−zˉ≤2ρsn2​/n​ for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn.
  3. Claim E.1 (p. 44). If S^⋆ϵ⊄S⋆2ϵ\widehat S_\star^\epsilon\not\subset S_\star^{2\epsilon}S⋆ϵ​⊂S⋆2ϵ​, the localized deviation Δn\Delta_nΔn​ plus a variance term reaches ϵ\epsilonϵ somewhere on S⋆2ϵS_\star^{2\epsilon}S⋆2ϵ​.
  4. Display (43) (p. 45). P(S^⋆ϵ⊄S⋆2ϵ)≤P(sup⁡S⋆2ϵΔn≥ϵ/2)\mathbb P(\widehat S_\star^\epsilon\not\subset S_\star^{2\epsilon})\le\mathbb P(\sup_{S_\star^{2\epsilon}}\Delta_n\ge\epsilon/2)P(S⋆ϵ​⊂S⋆2ϵ​)≤P(supS⋆2ϵ​​Δn​≥ϵ/2).
  5. Concentration (p. 45). P(sup⁡S⋆2ϵΔn≥2E[Rn(S⋆2ϵ)]+u)≤exp⁡(−nu22L2(λ2ϵ)2/γ)\mathbb P(\sup_{S_\star^{2\epsilon}}\Delta_n\ge2\mathbb E[\mathfrak R_n(S_\star^{2\epsilon})]+u)\le\exp(-\frac{nu^2}{2L^2}(\frac\lambda{2\epsilon})^{2/\gamma})P(supS⋆2ϵ​​Δn​≥2E[Rn​(S⋆2ϵ​)]+u)≤exp(−2L2nu2​(2ϵλ​)2/γ).

Significance

The theorem says that the variance penalty implicit in the robust objective does not cost the fast rates available under curvature. The ρ\rhoρ-dependent condition in (27) is of order (ρ/n)γ/(2(γ−1))(\rho/n)^{\gamma/(2(\gamma-1))}(ρ/n)γ/(2(γ−1)), which for quadratic growth (γ=2\gamma=2γ=2) is ρ/n\rho/nρ/n, the same order as the localized complexity term in typical parametric problems. Corollary 4.1 of the paper derives explicit rates of order dnlog⁡nd+tn+ρn\frac dn\log\frac nd+\frac tn+\frac\rho nnd​logdn​+nt​+nρ​ from it for a unique minimizer. The result applies to ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate minimizers, so it covers the output of the stochastic-gradient methods used to solve the robust problem.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix E). None of it is formalized: no statement about growth conditions, localized deviations of a robust objective, or fast rates for robust minimizers is on Prove2Me. A formal proof would check the printed constants, settle the boundary case ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0 (see below), and produce a localization lemma and a reduction from approximate robust minimizers to empirical processes that apply to other estimators.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at two points. First, a uniform deviation bound over all of Θ\ThetaΘ gives only the 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ rate: the speed-up comes from localizing to S⋆2ϵS_\star^{2\epsilon}S⋆2ϵ​, which requires transferring the growth condition, assumed only within distance rrr of S⋆S_\starS⋆​, to every 2ϵ2\epsilon2ϵ-suboptimal point by convexity. Second, the robust risk is not an empirical average, so standard comparisons between empirical and population minimizers do not apply. Claim E.1 handles this by moving along the segment from a bad approximate minimizer to its projection, which needs the projection to be preserved along that segment (a normal-cone property of πS⋆\pi_{S_\star}πS⋆​​) and the risk to be continuous there. The robust–empirical gap is then controlled by the variance expansion of Theorem 1. The concentration step needs a bounded-differences inequality for a supremum over an uncountable class, together with symmetrization; neither is in Mathlib in this form.

Formalization scope

Parameters live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), so norms, distances and projections are Euclidean. The sample is the coordinate process of the product measure P⊗nP^{\otimes n}P⊗n on Fin n → X, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and probabilities are measures of sample sets (the outer measure for a set that is not measurable). The χ2\chi^2χ2 ball is the weight-vector form (8). The suboptimal sets are written without infima (R(θ)≤R(θ′)+ϵR(\theta)\le R(\theta')+\epsilonR(θ)≤R(θ′)+ϵ for all θ′∈Θ\theta'\in\Thetaθ′∈Θ). Each supremum "sup⁡≥c\sup\ge csup≥c" is written as "for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 some θ\thetaθ reaches c−δc-\deltac−δ", so no statement relies on the default value of a real supremum. The Rademacher complexity is the published UnderstandingML.rademacher, and its expectation over the sample is assumed integrable, so that it is the true expectation and not the default value 000 of a Bochner integral. Lipschitz continuity is required on Θ\ThetaΘ, as printed.

Corrections and presuppositions:

  • ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0. The paper prints 0≤ϵ0\le\epsilon0≤ϵ. At ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0, both conditions of (27) hold, yet for ℓ(θ;x)=12(θ−x)2\ell(\theta;x)=\frac12(\theta-x)^2ℓ(θ;x)=21​(θ−x)2 on Θ=[−1,1]\Theta=[-1,1]Θ=[−1,1] with XXX uniform on [−12,12][-\frac12,\frac12][−21​,21​] the robust minimizer is the sample mean, which is almost surely not in S⋆={0}S_\star=\{0\}S⋆​={0}. The proof divides by ϵ\epsilonϵ (p. 45). The goal is stated for ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0.
  • S⋆S_\starS⋆​ nonempty and closed are assumed. The projection πS⋆\pi_{S_\star}πS⋆​​ presupposes them, and Appendix E calls S⋆S_\starS⋆​ closed.
  • Only the upper half of Theorem 1's (10) is stated; it needs no boundedness of the values.

The constant (2⋅8γLγ/λ)1/(γ−1)\big(2\cdot8^\gamma L^\gamma/\lambda\big)^{1/(\gamma-1)}(2⋅8γLγ/λ)1/(γ−1) is the printed one; the proof uses a smaller one, which the printed condition implies. The hypotheses ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0, γ>1\gamma>1γ>1 and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 make every power well defined. A formalization that assumed (26) vacuously, took ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, or let the Rademacher term be a non-integrable Bochner integral would trivialize the goal; the statements rule these out.

Infrastructure: Euclidean projection onto closed convex sets and its normal-cone characterization (partly in Mathlib), convexity of integral functionals, McDiarmid's bounded-differences inequality, and symmetrization for suprema of empirical processes. The concentration tools and the localization lemma can be reused beyond this mission. Contributions toward McDiarmid's inequality and symmetrization are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • J. C. Duchi and H. Namkoong, Variance-based regularization with convex objectives, arXiv:1610.02581v3, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.02581
  • P. L. Bartlett, O. Bousquet and S. Mendelson, Local Rademacher complexities, Annals of Statistics 33(4), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000282
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi and P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities: A Nonasymptotic Theory of Independence, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
  • A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory, SIAM, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718751
  • A. Maurer and M. Pontil, Empirical Bernstein bounds and sample variance penalization, COLT, 2009. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3740
12 thms3 active usersReviewed
Machine LearningOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Twice Regularized MDPs and the Equivalence Between Robustness and Regularization 2: The Greedy Policy of the R2 Optimal Value Is the Unique Optimal R2 PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust Markov decision process (robust MDP) evaluates a policy against the worst transition kernel and reward in an uncertainty set around a nominal model (P0,r0)(P_0, r_0)(P0​,r0​). It is the standard model for planning when the dynamics are estimated from data (Iyengar 2005; Nilim and El Ghaoui 2005; Wiesemann, Kuhn and Rustem 2013). Its Bellman update contains an inner optimization over the uncertainty set at every state, which makes robust planning costly when the sets are not (s,a)(s,a)(s,a)-rectangular.

Derman, Geist and Mannor (arXiv:2110.06267, NeurIPS 2021) show that, for sss-rectangular ball uncertainty sets, this inner optimization can be replaced by an explicit penalty that depends both on the policy and on the value function. The resulting twice regularized (R²) MDPs have Bellman operators with no inner optimization over models. The first mission of this series formalizes the robust–regularized equivalence (Theorem 4.1 of the paper). This mission formalizes Section 5: the R² Bellman operators are monotone and contracting under a bound on the transition radius, and the greedy policy of the R² optimal value is optimal.

Setting

Let S\mathcal SS and A\mathcal AA be finite nonempty sets of states and actions, γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) a discount factor, P0(s′∣s,a)P_0(s'\mid s,a)P0​(s′∣s,a) a transition kernel and r0(s,a)r_0(s,a)r0​(s,a) a reward. A policy π∈ΔAS\pi\in\Delta_{\mathcal A}^{\mathcal S}π∈ΔAS​ assigns to each state a probability distribution πs\pi_sπs​ on A\mathcal AA. For v∈RSv\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}v∈RS write qs(a)=r0(s,a)+γ∑s′P0(s′∣s,a)v(s′)q_s(a)=r_0(s,a)+\gamma\sum_{s'}P_0(s'\mid s,a)v(s')qs​(a)=r0​(s,a)+γ∑s′​P0​(s′∣s,a)v(s′) and

[T(P0,r0)πv](s)=∑aπs(a) qs(a).[T^\pi_{(P_0,r_0)}v](s)=\sum_a\pi_s(a)\,q_s(a).[T(P0​,r0​)π​v](s)=a∑​πs​(a)qs​(a).

All norms ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ below are ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-norms, ∥a∥=(∑za(z)2)1/2\|a\|=\big(\sum_z a(z)^2\big)^{1/2}∥a∥=(∑z​a(z)2)1/2; ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ is the sup norm.

Fix nonnegative radii αsr,αsP\alpha^r_s,\alpha^P_sαsr​,αsP​ for each state. The R² regularizer is Ωv,R2(πs)=∥πs∥ (αsr+αsPγ∥v∥)\Omega_{v,\mathrm R^2}(\pi_s)=\|\pi_s\|\,(\alpha^r_s+\alpha^P_s\gamma\|v\|)Ωv,R2​(πs​)=∥πs​∥(αsr​+αsP​γ∥v∥), and the R² Bellman operators are

[Tπ,R2v](s)=[T(P0,r0)πv](s)−Ωv,R2(πs),[T∗,R2v](s)=max⁡π∈ΔAS[Tπ,R2v](s).[T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v](s)=[T^\pi_{(P_0,r_0)}v](s)-\Omega_{v,\mathrm R^2}(\pi_s),\qquad [T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v](s)=\max_{\pi\in\Delta^{\mathcal S}_{\mathcal A}}[T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v](s).[Tπ,R2v](s)=[T(P0​,r0​)π​v](s)−Ωv,R2​(πs​),[T∗,R2v](s)=π∈ΔAS​max​[Tπ,R2v](s).

A policy π\piπ is greedy for vvv when Tπ,R2v=T∗,R2vT^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v=T^{*,\mathrm R^2}vTπ,R2v=T∗,R2v.

Assumption 5.1 (bounded radius). For each sss there is ϵs>0\epsilon_s>0ϵs​>0 with

αsP≤min⁡(1−γ−ϵsγ∣S∣ ; min⁡u∈R+A,∥u∥=1, w∈R+S,∥w∥=1 ∑a,s′u(a)P0(s′∣s,a)w(s′)),\alpha^P_s\le\min\Big(\frac{1-\gamma-\epsilon_s}{\gamma\sqrt{|\mathcal S|}}\ ;\ \min_{u\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal A}_+,\|u\|=1,\ w\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}_+,\|w\|=1}\ \sum_{a,s'}u(a)P_0(s'\mid s,a)w(s')\Big),αsP​≤min(γ∣S∣​1−γ−ϵs​​ ; u∈R+A​,∥u∥=1, w∈R+S​,∥w∥=1min​ a,s′∑​u(a)P0​(s′∣s,a)w(s′)),

and ϵ∗=min⁡sϵs\epsilon_*=\min_s\epsilon_sϵ∗​=mins​ϵs​. The R² value function vπ,R2v^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}vπ,R2 of a policy and the R² optimal value v∗,R2v^{*,\mathrm R^2}v∗,R2 are the fixed points of Tπ,R2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}Tπ,R2 and T∗,R2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}T∗,R2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (p. 8)

Under Assumption 5.1, T∗,R2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}T∗,R2 and every Tπ,R2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}Tπ,R2 have unique fixed points; a greedy policy π∗,R2\pi^{*,\mathrm R^2}π∗,R2 for v∗,R2v^{*,\mathrm R^2}v∗,R2 exists, and every such policy satisfies

vπ∗,R2,R2=v∗,R2 ≥ vπ,R2for all π∈ΔAS;v^{\pi^{*,\mathrm R^2},\mathrm R^2}=v^{*,\mathrm R^2}\ \ge\ v^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}\qquad\text{for all }\pi\in\Delta^{\mathcal S}_{\mathcal A};vπ∗,R2,R2=v∗,R2 ≥ vπ,R2for all π∈ΔAS​;

every optimal policy is greedy; and when αsr>0\alpha^r_s>0αsr​>0 for all sss the greedy policy is unique, hence the unique optimal R² policy.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1 (p. 3): for Ω\OmegaΩ strongly convex on the simplex, Ω∗(y)=max⁡a∈Δ⟨a,y⟩−Ω(a)\Omega^*(y)=\max_{a\in\Delta}\langle a,y\rangle-\Omega(a)Ω∗(y)=maxa∈Δ​⟨a,y⟩−Ω(a) is differentiable with Lipschitz gradient equal to the unique maximizer, satisfies Ω∗(y+c1)=Ω∗(y)+c\Omega^*(y+c\mathbb 1)=\Omega^*(y)+cΩ∗(y+c1)=Ω∗(y)+c, and is non-decreasing.
  2. Proposition 5.1 (i) (p. 8): v1≤v2v_1\le v_2v1​≤v2​ implies Tπ,R2v1≤Tπ,R2v2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_1\le T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_2Tπ,R2v1​≤Tπ,R2v2​ and T∗,R2v1≤T∗,R2v2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_1\le T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_2T∗,R2v1​≤T∗,R2v2​.
  3. Proposition 5.1 (iii) (p. 8):
∥Tπ,R2v1−Tπ,R2v2∥∞≤(1−ϵ∗)∥v1−v2∥∞,∥T∗,R2v1−T∗,R2v2∥∞≤(1−ϵ∗)∥v1−v2∥∞.\|T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_1-T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_2\|_\infty\le(1-\epsilon_*)\|v_1-v_2\|_\infty,\qquad \|T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_1-T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_2\|_\infty\le(1-\epsilon_*)\|v_1-v_2\|_\infty.∥Tπ,R2v1​−Tπ,R2v2​∥∞​≤(1−ϵ∗​)∥v1​−v2​∥∞​,∥T∗,R2v1​−T∗,R2v2​∥∞​≤(1−ϵ∗​)∥v1​−v2​∥∞​.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 is the R² counterpart of the fundamental theorem of discounted dynamic programming: optimal R² values are achieved by stationary policies obtained by a single greedy step. Together with the contraction of Proposition 5.1 (iii) it justifies the R² modified policy iteration algorithm of the paper, whose greedy step is a projection onto the simplex rather than a robust max–min problem. Combined with the first mission of the series, which identifies the robust value of an sss-rectangular ball-constrained MDP with the optimum of an R²-regularized program, it gives a route to robust planning at the cost of regularized planning.

The results are proved in the paper (App. C), partly by reference to Geist, Scherrer and Pietquin (2019) for the optimality operator. No machine-checked proof of any of them exists; this mission produces the first. Prop. 2.1 is a general fact of convex analysis (Danskin-type smoothness of a conjugate on the simplex) that is reusable for any regularized MDP or entropy-regularized game.

Difficulty

The R² evaluation operator is not affine: the value regularizer −αsPγ∥πs∥ ∥v∥-\alpha^P_s\gamma\|\pi_s\|\,\|v\|−αsP​γ∥πs​∥∥v∥ is concave in vvv and decreases as ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ grows. Monotonicity therefore does not follow from the positivity of P0P_0P0​ as in the standard case; it requires the second bound of Assumption 5.1, which compares the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ variation of ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ with the minimal nonnegative bilinear form of P0(⋅∣s,⋅)P_0(\cdot\mid s,\cdot)P0​(⋅∣s,⋅). Likewise the contraction modulus is not γ\gammaγ but 1−ϵ∗1-\epsilon_*1−ϵ∗​, because the regularizer is ∣S∣\sqrt{|\mathcal S|}∣S∣​-Lipschitz between the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and sup norms. The optimality step of the classical proof uses linearity of TπT^\piTπ when comparing values of policies; here only monotonicity and contraction are available. Uniqueness of the greedy policy rests on strict concavity on the simplex, which holds only when the regularization weight is positive.

Formalization scope

States and actions are finite nonempty types; transitions are arrays P₀ : S → A → S → ℝ with the published predicate IsTransitionKernel; value functions are S → ℝ with the pointwise order. The ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-norm is an explicit l2norm (Mathlib's norm on S → ℝ is the sup norm, used only for ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​). T∗,R2v(s)T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v(s)T∗,R2v(s) is the real supremum over the simplex ΔA\Delta_{\mathcal A}ΔA​ (attained), and the inner minimum of Assumption 5.1 is the real infimum over nonnegative ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-unit vectors; the witnesses ϵs\epsilon_sϵs​ are explicit. Greedy policies are a predicate, never a function, and the R² value functions are not defined by choice: the goal asserts their existence and uniqueness and speaks about the fixed points.

Disclosed deviations from the page. Assumption 5.1 is a hypothesis of Theorem 5.1 (its proof assumes it). The uniqueness clause of Theorem 5.1 additionally assumes αsr>0\alpha^r_s>0αsr​>0 for all sss: with one state, two actions, zero reward and zero radii every policy is greedy and optimal. Proposition 2.1 assumes Ω\OmegaΩ continuous on the simplex, without which the maximum need not be attained, and strong convexity is Mathlib's StrongConvexOn for some modulus (norm-independent in finite dimension). Proposition 5.1 (ii) is false as printed and is not drafted: with one state, one action, P0=1P_0=1P0​=1, r0=0r_0=0r0​=0, γ=1/2\gamma=1/2γ=1/2, αr=0\alpha^r=0αr=0, αP=1/2\alpha^P=1/2αP=1/2, ϵ=1/4\epsilon=1/4ϵ=1/4, one has Tv=v/2−∣v∣/4Tv=v/2-|v|/4Tv=v/2−∣v∣/4, and v1=−1v_1=-1v1​=−1, c=1c=1c=1 give T(v1+c)=0>−1/4=Tv1+γcT(v_1+c)=0>-1/4=Tv_1+\gamma cT(v1​+c)=0>−1/4=Tv1​+γc. Remark 5.1, Algorithm 1 and the ℓp\ell_pℓp​ variant of App. C.1 are out of scope. The inner minimum of Assumption 5.1 is 000 whenever some P0(s′∣s,a)=0P_0(s'\mid s,a)=0P0​(s′∣s,a)=0, forcing αsP=0\alpha^P_s=0αsP​=0; this is the assumption as printed.

A formalization in which ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the sup norm, the inner minimum ranges over all unit vectors (making the assumption unsatisfiable), or the value functions are postulated rather than shown to exist would be trivial or wrong; the drafted statements avoid all three. Contributions welcome: Prop. 2.1 as a general convex-analysis lemma, Banach fixed-point plumbing for S → ℝ with the sup norm, and the strict concavity of p↦⟨p,q⟩−c∥p∥p\mapsto\langle p,q\rangle-c\|p\|p↦⟨p,q⟩−c∥p∥ on the simplex.

Selected references

  • E. Derman, M. Geist, S. Mannor, Twice regularized MDPs and the equivalence between robustness and regularization, NeurIPS 2021. arXiv:2110.06267v1
  • M. Geist, B. Scherrer, O. Pietquin, A theory of regularized Markov decision processes, ICML 2019. arXiv:1901.11275
  • A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices, Operations Research 53(5), 2005. doi:10.1287/opre.1050.0216
  • G. N. Iyengar, Robust dynamic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2), 2005. doi:10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • W. Wiesemann, D. Kuhn, B. Rustem, Robust Markov decision processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 38(1), 2013. doi:10.1287/moor.1120.0566
  • A. Mensch, M. Blondel, Differentiable dynamic programming for structured prediction and attention, ICML 2018. arXiv:1802.03676
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Solutions of Uncertain Linear Programs I: Under Constraint-wise Uncertainty and the Boundedness Assumption the Robust Counterpart Is No Worse Than the Worst InstanceResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear program is solved with data that, in practice, is rarely known exactly: coefficients come from measurements, estimates or forecasts. Robust optimization asks for a solution that remains feasible for every realization of the data in a prescribed uncertainty set, and among those the one with the best guaranteed objective value. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski introduced this framework for linear programming in Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs (Oper. Res. Lett. 25, 1999), following their treatment of robust convex optimization (Math. Oper. Res. 23, 1998) and Soyster's earlier work on inexact linear programming (Oper. Res. 21, 1973). The robust counterpart has since become the starting point of a large literature on uncertainty sets, budgets of uncertainty and adjustable policies.

A natural first objection is that the robust counterpart might be needlessly conservative: by demanding feasibility for all realizations simultaneously, it could be infeasible, or have a worse value, even when every individual realization is perfectly well behaved. This mission formalizes the paper's answer (§2.2): under two structural hypotheses, the robust counterpart is no worse than the worst realization.

Setting

Fix c,f∈Rnc, f \in \mathbb R^nc,f∈Rn and write a linear program in the homogeneous form (6)

(P)min⁡{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},(P)\qquad \min\{c^{T}x \mid Ax \ge 0,\ f^{T}x = 1\},(P)min{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},

where AAA is a real m×nm\times nm×n matrix and Ax≥0Ax\ge0Ax≥0 is componentwise. Every linear program can be put in this form. The matrix AAA is uncertain: it is only known to lie in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU of m×nm\times nm×n matrices. Each A∈UA\in\mathcal UA∈U gives an instance (P)(P)(P) with feasible set {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}\{x\mid Ax\ge0,\ f^{T}x = 1\}{x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1} and optimal value c∗(P)c^*(P)c∗(P); the family of instances is P\mathcal PP. The robust counterpart (7) is

(PU)min⁡{cTx∣x∈GU},GU={x∣Ax≥0  ∀A∈U; fTx=1},(P_{\mathcal U})\qquad \min\{c^{T}x \mid x \in G_{\mathcal U}\},\qquad G_{\mathcal U} = \{x\mid Ax\ge0\ \ \forall A\in\mathcal U;\ f^{T}x = 1\},(PU​)min{cTx∣x∈GU​},GU​={x∣Ax≥0  ∀A∈U; fTx=1},

and its optimal value is c∗c^*c∗. Since GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ does not change when U\mathcal UU is replaced by its closed convex hull, the paper assumes throughout that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed.

Let Ui⊆Rn\mathcal U_i\subseteq\mathbb R^nUi​⊆Rn be the set of all realizations of the iii-th row, the projection of U\mathcal UU onto the data of the iii-th constraint. The uncertainty is constraint-wise if U=U1×⋯×Um\mathcal U = \mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_mU=U1​×⋯×Um​: the rows vary independently. The Boundedness Assumption asks for a convex compact set Q⊆RnQ\subseteq\mathbb R^nQ⊆Rn that contains the feasible set of every instance.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.1 (p. 5)

If the uncertainty is constraint-wise and the Boundedness Assumption holds, then

  1. (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) is infeasible if and only if some instance is infeasible:
GU=∅  ⟺  ∃A∈U: {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}=∅;G_{\mathcal U} = \emptyset \iff \exists A\in\mathcal U:\ \{x\mid Ax\ge0,\ f^{T}x=1\}=\emptyset;GU​=∅⟺∃A∈U: {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}=∅;
  1. if (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) is feasible with optimal value c∗c^*c∗, then
c∗=sup⁡{c∗(P)∣(P)∈P}.(9)c^* = \sup\{c^*(P)\mid (P)\in\mathcal P\}. \tag{9}c∗=sup{c∗(P)∣(P)∈P}.(9)

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof: the row-wise description (8) of robust feasibility; the inclusion of GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ in every instance's feasible set; the reduction of the semi-infinite system (8) on QQQ to a finite subsystem; the statement that the finite system (10) A1x≥0,…,ANx≥0, fTx=1A_1x\ge0,\dots,A_Nx\ge0,\ f^{T}x=1A1​x≥0,…,AN​x≥0, fTx=1 then has no solution at all; the Farkas certificate (11); the construction of one infeasible instance from it; and part (i) alone, which part (ii) uses for an augmented program.

Companions

The §2.2 example (every instance has optimal value 1, the robust counterpart is infeasible), and the two invariance remarks: GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ is unchanged under passing to the closed convex hull of U\mathcal UU (§2.1) or to the product U1×⋯×Um\mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_mU1​×⋯×Um​ of its projections (§2.2).

Significance

Proposition 2.1 says that, for constraint-wise uncertainty, robustness costs nothing beyond what the worst realization already costs: the robust counterpart is feasible exactly when every instance is, and its optimal value equals the worst instance value. The §2.2 example shows the hypothesis cannot be dropped: there, correlated uncertainty in two rows makes every instance solvable with value 1 while the robust counterpart is infeasible. Together with the invariance of GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ under passing to the product of projections, this explains why row-wise (constraint-wise) uncertainty sets are the standard modelling choice in robust linear optimization.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known to exist. Formalizing it produces a reusable development of semi-infinite linear systems: the compactness reduction to finite subsystems, a homogeneous Farkas alternative, and the row-averaging argument that uses convexity and the product structure of U\mathcal UU.

Difficulty

The robust counterpart has a continuum of constraints, one for each A∈UA\in\mathcal UA∈U, so Farkas' Lemma cannot be applied to it directly. The step that requires care is passing from infeasibility of this semi-infinite system to infeasibility of a single instance. Compactness yields only finitely many instances whose joint system has no solution in QQQ; those instances are in general all feasible individually, and the infeasible instance has to be manufactured from their rows. Without constraint-wise uncertainty the manufactured matrix need not lie in U\mathcal UU, which is exactly what the §2.2 example exploits. Part (ii) needs the optimal values of the instances to be attained on compact feasible sets, which is where the Boundedness Assumption enters again.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, and Ax≥0Ax\ge0Ax≥0 is 0 ≤ A *ᵥ x in the componentwise order. The iii-th row of AAA is A i and aTxa^{T}xaTx is a ⬝ᵥ x. The projections Ui\mathcal U_iUi​ are the images of U\mathcal UU under A↦AiA\mapsto A_iA↦Ai​, not free sets, and constraint-wise uncertainty is the inclusion U1×⋯×Um⊆U\mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_m\subseteq\mathcal UU1​×⋯×Um​⊆U (the reverse inclusion always holds). The Boundedness Assumption keeps both convexity and compactness of QQQ, as on the page.

Optimal values are infima: c∗c^*c∗ is the greatest lower bound (IsGLB) of cTxc^{T}xcTx over GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​, and (9) states that c∗c^*c∗ is the least upper bound (IsLUB) of the set of real optimal values of the instances. No real sInf/sSup is used, so no junk value can make the statement true.

The goal carries the paper's standing assumption that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed, and one disclosed addition: U\mathcal UU is nonempty. The paper takes this for granted; without it part (i) fails for f=0f = 0f=0 and the supremum in (9) ranges over the empty set. The goal does not assume that the robust counterpart or any instance attains its optimum, and it does not mention finite subsystems, multipliers or the averaged matrix; those appear only in the milestones. A formalization in which the uncertainty sets Ui\mathcal U_iUi​ are arbitrary sets with U=∏iUi\mathcal U = \prod_i\mathcal U_iU=∏i​Ui​, or in which optimal values are taken as sInf without boundedness, would not be faithful and is ruled out.

A complete development needs: compactness arguments for families of closed half-spaces, a Farkas alternative for homogeneous systems with one normalizing equation, and elementary convexity of linear images. These pieces are general and reusable beyond robust optimization. Proofs of the milestones, alternative arguments (for instance via LP duality for part (ii)) and proofs of the companion statements are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-6377(99)00016-4 (cited here by the pages of the authors' manuscript).
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  • A. L. Soyster, Convex programming with set-inclusive constraints and applications to inexact linear programming, Operations Research 21(5):1154–1157, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1154
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization I: An Affine Policy Is Optimal When the Uncertainty Set Is a SimplexResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two rounds: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain parameter is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen after the parameter bbb is observed, so that the second stage may depend on bbb arbitrarily. The objective is the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU of possible parameters. Such models arise in robust network design, capacity planning and two-stage covering problems, and they generalize the two-stage robust combinatorial problems (set cover, facility location) studied by Dhamdhere, Goyal, Ravi and Singh.

Optimizing over all functions y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) is intractable in general: Bertsimas and Goyal note that the optimal second stage is piecewise linear in bbb with possibly exponentially many pieces (Bemporad, Borrelli and Morari, 2003). A standard remedy, introduced for robust linear programs by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (2004), restricts the second stage to affine policies (linear decision rules) y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q; the best affine policy is computable by a single convex program and performs well empirically. The question is when this restriction loses nothing.

Timeline of the relevant results:

  • 2004. Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski introduce affinely adjustable robust counterparts and show that the best affine policy is tractable for many uncertainty sets (doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y).
  • 2010. Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo prove that affine policies are optimal for a class of multistage robust problems with one-dimensional uncertainty per stage and box uncertainty sets (doi:10.1287/moor.1100.0444).
  • 2012. Bertsimas and Goyal, the source of this mission, prove that an affine policy is optimal for model (1) whenever U\mathcal UU is a simplex (Theorem 1), and show that this exactness breaks down for slightly larger sets (doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4).

Setting

Let A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​ and d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. The problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) of model (1) is

zAdapt(U)=min⁡ cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\min\ c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ \ x\ge 0,\ \ y(b)\ge 0\quad\forall b\in\mathcal U,zAdapt​(U)=min cTx+b∈Umax​dTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,

where inequalities between vectors are componentwise. A pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) satisfying the constraints is feasible; its worst-case cost is cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)cTx+maxb∈U​dTy(b). A feasible pair is optimal when its worst-case cost equals zAdapt(U)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdapt​(U), and an affine policy is a second stage of the form y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q with P∈Rn2×mP\in\mathbb R^{n_2\times m}P∈Rn2​×m, q∈Rn2q\in\mathbb R^{n_2}q∈Rn2​, still required to be nonnegative on U\mathcal UU. The value zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum restricted to affine policies.

A simplex in Rm\mathbb R^mRm is the convex hull

U=conv⁡(b1,…,bm+1)\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}(b^1,\dots,b^{m+1})U=conv(b1,…,bm+1)

of m+1m+1m+1 affinely independent points, that is, points for which b1−bm+1,…,bm−bm+1b^1-b^{m+1},\dots,b^m-b^{m+1}b1−bm+1,…,bm−bm+1 are linearly independent. The proof works with the m×mm\times mm×m matrix Q=[(b1−bm+1)⋯(bm−bm+1)]Q=[(b^1-b^{m+1})\cdots(b^m-b^{m+1})]Q=[(b1−bm+1)⋯(bm−bm+1)], the matrix Y=[(y∗(b1)−y∗(bm+1))⋯(y∗(bm)−y∗(bm+1))]Y=[(y^*(b^1)-y^*(b^{m+1}))\cdots(y^*(b^m)-y^*(b^{m+1}))]Y=[(y∗(b1)−y∗(bm+1))⋯(y∗(bm)−y∗(bm+1))] of display (2), and the affine rule y~(b)=YQ−1(b−bm+1)+y∗(bm+1)\tilde y(b)=YQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})+y^*(b^{m+1})y~​(b)=YQ−1(b−bm+1)+y∗(bm+1). In Lean these are Qmat v, Ymat v g and interpolant v g, with vertices v : Fin (m+1) → Fin m → ℝ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

If U=conv⁡(b1,…,bm+1)\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}(b^1,\dots,b^{m+1})U=conv(b1,…,bm+1) with affinely independent bj∈R+mb^j\in\mathbb R^m_+bj∈R+m​ and ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is feasible, then there exist x^\hat xx^, P∈Rn2×mP\in\mathbb R^{n_2\times m}P∈Rn2​×m and q∈Rn2q\in\mathbb R^{n_2}q∈Rn2​ such that

(x^, y^),y^(b)=Pb+q  (b∈U),(\hat x,\ \hat y),\qquad \hat y(b)=Pb+q\ \ (b\in\mathcal U),(x^, y^​),y^​(b)=Pb+q  (b∈U),

is an optimal solution of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U), optimal among all (not only affine) two-stage solutions. In particular zAff(U)=zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)=z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)=zAdapt​(U).

Milestones

The proof of Theorem 1 has no numbered lemma; the milestones are its displayed steps, in attack order:

  1. QQQ is invertible (PDF p. 6).
  2. For b=∑jαjbjb=\sum_j\alpha_jb^jb=∑j​αj​bj with ∑jαj=1\sum_j\alpha_j=1∑j​αj​=1: Q−1(b−bm+1)=(α1,…,αm)TQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})=(\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_m)^TQ−1(b−bm+1)=(α1​,…,αm​)T (PDF p. 6).
  3. y~(∑jαjbj)=∑jαj y∗(bj)\tilde y\big(\sum_j\alpha_jb^j\big)=\sum_j\alpha_j\,y^*(b^j)y~​(∑j​αj​bj)=∑j​αj​y∗(bj) (PDF pp. 6–7).
  4. Displays (3)–(5): for any feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), the pair (x∗,y~)(x^*,\tilde y)(x∗,y~​) is feasible and every bound on the worst-case cost of (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗) also bounds that of (x∗,y~)(x^*,\tilde y)(x∗,y~​) (PDF p. 7).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 identifies a class of uncertainty sets on which the tractable affine restriction is exact, for every constraint matrix AAA and BBB and every nonnegative cost. It is the positive anchor of the paper: Sections 3 and 4 show that with m+3m+3m+3 extreme points the best affine policy can already be worse by a factor 2−δ2-\delta2−δ, and that on sets with exponentially many extreme points the gap can be Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ); Section 6 uses a dominating simplex, on which affine policies are exact, to build an O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​)-approximation for general U\mathcal UU. The theorem also says that on a simplex the whole adaptive problem reduces to m+1m+1m+1 scenario copies of a linear program.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known on Prove2Me. This mission produces the model (1) in Lean, the barycentric-coordinate identity for a simplex in matrix form, and a statement of optimality that asserts attainment of the minimum in (1), which the paper's proof takes for granted.

Difficulty

Two steps are not routine to formalize. First, the paper starts from "an optimal solution x∗,y∗(b)x^*,y^*(b)x∗,y∗(b)", that is, it assumes the minimum in (1) is attained. Over arbitrary functions y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) this is not automatic; on a simplex it follows because the problem reduces to a finite linear program on the vertices, whose optimum is attained, but Mathlib has no theory of linear-programming attainment, so this reduction has to be built. Second, the affine-independence step needs the passage from affine independence of m+1m+1m+1 points to invertibility of the m×mm\times mm×m matrix QQQ, and the identity Q−1(b−bm+1)=αQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})=\alphaQ−1(b−bm+1)=α requires the barycentric coordinates and the inverse matrix to be matched index by index. The naive idea of comparing zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ and zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ as real infima does not prove the goal: equality of the two infima says nothing about the existence of an optimal solution.

Formalization scope

Vectors in Rm\mathbb R^mRm are Fin m → ℝ, with the componentwise order; matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. The paper's indices start at 111, Lean's at 000: bjb^jbj is v (j-1) and bm+1b^{m+1}bm+1 is v (Fin.last m). The simplex is convexHull ℝ (Set.range v); it is compact, convex and, by affine independence, full-dimensional, so these standing assumptions of (1) are not stated separately. Nonnegativity of U\mathcal UU is the hypothesis that all m+1m+1m+1 vertices are nonnegative (the page writes j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m, a slip for m+1m+1m+1). Feasibility of (1) is a hypothesis, as the paper assumes. Optimality (IsOptimalAdapt) means: feasible, and every worst-case cost bound achieved by any feasible two-stage solution is achieved by this one. The values zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ are infima of the sets of achievable bounds; they are provided for reference and the goal does not depend on them.

The goal must not be replaced by zAff(U)≤zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≤zAdapt​(U), by optimality among affine policies only, or by a version that assumes an optimal solution exists: each of these drops the content "there is an optimal solution and it is affine". The goal does not mention QQQ, YYY or the interpolant.

A complete development needs: linear-programming attainment for a finite system of linear inequalities with a cost bounded below (reusable well beyond this mission), the linear-algebra lemmas relating affine independence to an invertible edge matrix (reusable for barycentric coordinates in general), and the convex-hull representation of points of a simplex. Contributions of any of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012. doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99(2), 351–376, 2004. doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 363–394, 2010. doi:10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • A. Bemporad, F. Borrelli, M. Morari, Min–max control of constrained uncertain discrete-time linear systems, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 48(9), 1600–1606, 2003. doi:10.1109/TAC.2003.816984
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems 1: Finite-Sample Confidence Region for the Mean and CovarianceResearch Paper

Motivation

An optimization model often needs a probability distribution for an uncertain cost or demand, while a practitioner has only a finite sample from that distribution. Replacing the distribution by the empirical one can hide uncertainty in its estimated mean and covariance. Delage and Ye use a finite-sample confidence region for these two moments to justify a distributional ambiguity set in data-driven stochastic programming Delage and Ye, 2010. The present mission concerns the confidence region itself: it asks how far the population moments can be from the sample estimates when the normalized random vector has bounded support.

The source for every theorem index and page number here is the authors' draft dated 20 February 2008, not an independently checked pagination of the published article. Its §4 starts from independent observations and Assumption 4, then obtains a sample-mean bound, a covariance bound around the known mean, and finally the joint bound for estimates computed entirely from the sample.

Setting

Let ξ∈Rm\xi\in\mathbb R^mξ∈Rm have distribution PPP, mean μ=EP[ξ]\mu=\mathbb E_P[\xi]μ=EP​[ξ], and covariance Σ=EP[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]\Sigma=\mathbb E_P[(\xi-\mu)(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T]Σ=EP​[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]. Assume Σ\SigmaΣ is positive definite. For M≥1M\ge1M≥1 independent observations ξ1,…,ξM\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_Mξ1​,…,ξM​, the empirical mean and empirical covariance in this section are

μ^=1M∑i=1Mξi,Σ^=1M∑i=1M(ξi−μ^)(ξi−μ^)T.\widehat\mu=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M\xi_i,\qquad \widehat\Sigma=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)^\mathsf T.μ​=M1​i=1∑M​ξi​,Σ=M1​i=1∑M​(ξi​−μ​)(ξi​−μ​)T.

The divisor is MMM, including for the covariance; the paper's earlier discussion of an unbiased estimator with divisor M−1M-1M−1 does not govern §4. When the true mean is known, write Σ^(μ)=M−1∑i(ξi−μ)(ξi−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=M^{-1}\sum_i(\xi_i-\mu)(\xi_i-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=M−1∑i​(ξi​−μ)(ξi​−μ)T. Matrix order A⪯BA\preceq BA⪯B means B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite. The squared Mahalanobis distance of a vector vvv is vTΣ−1vv^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}vvTΣ−1v.

Assumption 4 bounds the normalized observations: for some R≥0R\ge0R≥0, (ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\xi-\mu)\le R^2(ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2 with probability one. Equivalently, ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ)\zeta=\Sigma^{-1/2}(\xi-\mu)ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ) lies almost surely in a Euclidean ball of radius RRR; it has mean zero and covariance III. The sample law is PMP^MPM, the product measure of MMM identical copies. These choices make the probability in each target an assertion about genuinely independent observations.

Formalization targets

Simultaneous confidence region

For 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1, set

α(t)=R2M(1−mR4+log⁡(1/t)),β(t)=R2M(2+2log⁡(1/t))2.\alpha(t)=\frac{R^2}{\sqrt M}\left(\sqrt{1-\frac m{R^4}}+\sqrt{\log(1/t)}\right),\qquad \beta(t)=\frac{R^2}{M}\left(2+\sqrt{2\log(1/t)}\right)^2.α(t)=M​R2​(1−R4m​​+log(1/t)​),β(t)=MR2​(2+2log(1/t)​)2.

Theorem 2 is the goal. Write a=α(δ/4)a=\alpha(\delta/4)a=α(δ/4) and b=β(δ/2)b=\beta(\delta/2)b=β(δ/2), and assume a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1. The target is the simultaneous event

(μ^−μ)TΣ−1(μ^−μ)≤b,Σ⪯Σ^1−a−b,Σ^1+a⪯Σ(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\widehat\mu-\mu)\le b, \qquad \Sigma\preceq\frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1-a-b}, \qquad \frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1+a}\preceq\Sigma(μ​−μ)TΣ−1(μ​−μ)≤b,Σ⪯1−a−bΣ​,1+aΣ​⪯Σ

with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. The last denominator is a correction: printed (12c) says 1−a1-a1−a, while the authors' union-bound display on draft p. 13 says 1+a1+a1+a. The printed version fails, for example, for symmetric ±1\pm1±1 observations, whose sample covariance is 1−μ^21-\widehat\mu^21−μ​2 and for which its claimed lower bound would require an implausibly large sample-mean square. The proof's displayed bound gives the stated 1+a1+a1+a draft pp. 13–14.

Supporting results

Lemma 2 bounds the normalized sample mean. Corollary 1 turns it into the Mahalanobis bound for μ^−μ\widehat\mu-\muμ​−μ. Lemma 3 gives a two-sided matrix bound for M−1∑iζiζiTM^{-1}\sum_i\zeta_i\zeta_i^\mathsf TM−1∑i​ζi​ζiT​; Corollary 2 transfers that bound to Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ). A separate theorem item states the centring identity Σ^(μ)=Σ^+(μ^−μ)(μ^−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=\widehat\Sigma+(\widehat\mu-\mu)(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=Σ+(μ​−μ)(μ​−μ)T. The final milestone is the rank-one matrix inequality used in Theorem 2's proof. Their statements follow the draft's §4.1–4.2.

Significance

The joint region places both true moments inside explicit data-dependent matrix inequalities at a chosen confidence level. That is the statistical input for the paper's later moment-based distributional uncertainty sets. The result is known in the source; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its corrected statement and its supporting concentration and matrix results. The Lean items are currently open theorem statements, so a successful draft compilation does not constitute formal verification of the inequalities.

Related platform results include a proved two-sided constant-bound McDiarmid inequality (UnderstandingML.mcdiarmid_inequality_pi) and an open per-coordinate upper-tail version (StabGen.Uniform.mcdiarmid_inequality). Neither is identical to the cited Theorem 1 of this draft, so the milestone list starts with the paper's Lemma 2 and does not restate Theorem 1.

Difficulty

The known-mean covariance estimate is a sum of outer products of normalized observations. Controlling its largest and smallest eigenvalues together requires concentration of a matrix-valued statistic, rather than a separate scalar bound for each entry. Once the true mean is replaced by μ^\widehat\muμ​, the covariance changes by a rank-one matrix; the mean bound must control that correction in Loewner order. A direct replacement of Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ) by Σ^\widehat\SigmaΣ therefore does not preserve both sides of Corollary 2 automatically.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ, and matrices are real Fin m × Fin m matrices. The Euclidean squared length is a dot product; Lean's generic norm on functions is a supremum norm and is not used for it. The Loewner order is (B - A).PosSemidef. The distribution has a probability measure and coordinatewise finite L2L^2L2 moments, so its real-valued mean and covariance integrals are well defined. The true covariance is positive definite, reflecting the section's nonsingularity assumption. Samples have the product law PMP^MPM. The chapter's normalized case records zero mean, identity covariance, and the almost-sure ball bound.

Every statistical result assumes 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1; the logarithms and confidence levels are then in their intended domain. Positive MMM rules out division by zero in empirical averages. Lemma 3 carries the paper's explicit sample-size threshold, and the goal reads “MMM large enough” as a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1, which keeps the upper covariance denominator positive. The expression under the other square root is nonnegative in every satisfiable positive-dimensional normalized setting, because E∥ζ∥22=m≤R2\mathbb E\|\zeta\|_2^2=m\le R^2E∥ζ∥22​=m≤R2. It is not an added assumption. The probability conclusions use ≥1−δ\ge1-\delta≥1−δ, which is what the paper's proofs show despite the phrase “greater than.”

The goal assumes the source's distributional and support conditions, not the probability conclusions of its supporting corollaries. This prevents a vacuous route that merely postulates the desired confidence event. A complete proof will need reusable product-measure concentration facts, moment and matrix algebra, and a positive-definite quadratic-form bridge. Contributions to those components and to each milestone are in scope. Corollary 3's data-derived radius is excluded because the draft's conditioning argument does not establish its claimed confidence level. Corollary 4 as a probability statement, Theorem 3, and Corollary 5 depend on it; Remark 2 concerns a separate Gaussian eigenvalue density.

Selected references

  • Erick Delage and Yinyu Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3), 595–612, 2010; source used here: authors' draft of 20 February 2008. DOI.
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Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 1: The Dual-Subgradient Meta-Algorithm Returns a 2ε-Approximate Robust Solution or Certifies Infeasibility within ⌈G²D²/ε²⌉ Oracle CallsResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization protects a decision against every realization of uncertain data in a prescribed uncertainty set. The standard approach replaces the uncertain constraints by a deterministic robust counterpart and solves that counterpart directly (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui, Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The counterpart is often a harder problem than the original: a robust linear program with ellipsoidal uncertainty becomes a second-order cone program, and a robust quadratic program can become a semidefinite program. A practitioner who has an efficient, specialised solver for the nominal problem may therefore have no efficient solver for its robust version.

Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) ask whether the robust problem can be solved by repeatedly calling a solver of the nominal problem, with the number of calls independent of the dimension. Their first answer, the dual-subgradient meta-algorithm of §3.1, does so whenever the constraints are concave in the noise and the uncertainty set is convex. It is a primal–dual scheme: an online-learning algorithm picks the noise, and the nominal solver answers. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3.

Setting

Let D⊆Rn\mathcal D\subseteq\mathbb R^nD⊆Rn be a convex domain, U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd a convex uncertainty set, and f1,…,fm:Rn×Rd→Rf_1,\dots,f_m:\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rf1​,…,fm​:Rn×Rd→R constraint functions. The robust feasibility problem (3) is

∃ x∈D:fi(x,ui)≤0∀ui∈U, i=1,…,m.\exists\,x\in\mathcal D:\qquad f_i(x,u_i)\le 0\quad\forall u_i\in\mathcal U,\ i=1,\dots,m .∃x∈D:fi​(x,ui​)≤0∀ui​∈U, i=1,…,m.

(An objective is handled by binary search on its value, so feasibility is the core question.) A point x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate solution if fi(x,u)≤ϵf_i(x,u)\le\epsilonfi​(x,u)≤ϵ for all u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U and all iii.

An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle Oϵ\mathcal O_\epsilonOϵ​ (Figure 1) takes a noise vector u=(u1,…,um)∈Umu=(u_1,\dots,u_m)\in\mathcal U^mu=(u1​,…,um​)∈Um and either returns some x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D with fi(x,ui)≤ϵf_i(x,u_i)\le\epsilonfi​(x,ui​)≤ϵ for all iii, or answers "infeasible", which it may do only if no x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D has fi(x,ui)≤0f_i(x,u_i)\le 0fi​(x,ui​)≤0 for all iii.

The standing assumptions of §3.1 are: each fi(⋅,u)f_i(\cdot,u)fi​(⋅,u) is convex on D\mathcal DD; each fi(x,⋅)f_i(x,\cdot)fi​(x,⋅) is concave on U\mathcal UU for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D; D≥∥u−v∥2D\ge\|u-v\|_2D≥∥u−v∥2​ for all u,v∈Uu,v\in\mathcal Uu,v∈U; and ∥∇ufi(x,u)∥2≤G\|\nabla_u f_i(x,u)\|_2\le G∥∇u​fi​(x,u)∥2​≤G for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D, u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U. Write PPP for the Euclidean projection onto U\mathcal UU.

Algorithm 1 sets T=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉T=\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceilT=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ and η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​), starts from u10,…,um0∈Uu^0_1,\dots,u^0_m\in\mathcal Uu10​,…,um0​∈U, and for t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T updates

uit=P(uit−1+η ∇ufi(xt−1,uit−1)),xt=Oϵ(u1t,…,umt),u^t_i=P\bigl(u^{t-1}_i+\eta\,\nabla_u f_i(x^{t-1},u^{t-1}_i)\bigr),\qquad x^t=\mathcal O_\epsilon(u^t_1,\dots,u^t_m),uit​=P(uit−1​+η∇u​fi​(xt−1,uit−1​)),xt=Oϵ​(u1t​,…,umt​),

stopping with "infeasible" as soon as the oracle says so, and otherwise returning xˉ=1T∑t=1Txt\bar x=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T x^txˉ=T1​∑t=1T​xt. In Lean these are alg1T, alg1Eta, alg1U, alg1X, alg1Output and alg1Calls in the namespace OracleRO.DualSubgrad.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 7)

For every ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle,

output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬ ∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi(x,u)≤0,\text{output}=\text{"infeasible"}\ \Longrightarrow\ \neg\,\exists x\in\mathcal D\ \forall i\ \forall u\in\mathcal U:\ f_i(x,u)\le 0,output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi​(x,u)≤0, output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,\text{output}=\bar x\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar x\in\mathcal D\ \text{ and }\ f_i(\bar x,u)\le 2\epsilon\ \ \forall i,\ \forall u\in\mathcal U,output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi​(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,

and the number of oracle calls is at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 5, Zinkevich 2003): projected online gradient ascent with step η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​) on concave rewards has regret ∑tft(x∗)−∑tft(xt)≤GDT\sum_t f_t(x^*)-\sum_t f_t(x_t)\le GD\sqrt T∑t​ft​(x∗)−∑t​ft​(xt​)≤GDT​ for every x∗x^*x∗ in the decision set.
  2. (6) (p. 7): if a point is returned, 1T∑t=1Tfi(xt,uit)≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le\epsilonT1​∑t=1T​fi​(xt,uit​)≤ϵ for every iii.
  3. (7) (p. 8): for every iii and u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U, 1T∑tfi(xt,u)−1T∑tfi(xt,uit)≤GD/T≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)-\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le GD/\sqrt T\le\epsilonT1​∑t​fi​(xt,u)−T1​∑t​fi​(xt,uit​)≤GD/T​≤ϵ.
  4. Final inequality of the proof (p. 8): fi(xˉ,u)≤1T∑tfi(xt,u)f_i(\bar x,u)\le\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)fi​(xˉ,u)≤T1​∑t​fi​(xt,u) for u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any approximate solver of the nominal problem into an approximate solver of its robust counterpart, at a cost of ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ solver calls, a number that depends on the geometry of U\mathcal UU and the sensitivity of the constraints to the noise but not on nnn, ddd or mmm. It is the prototype of the paper's oracle-based reductions: the same primal–dual template, with a different online learner, gives the dual-perturbation algorithm of §3.2–3.3 for non-convex uncertainty sets, and the applications of §4 (robust linear programs, quadratic programs, semidefinite programs) instantiate it.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development adds a checked statement of the reduction with an explicit call count in place of the paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), and a reusable regret bound for projected online gradient ascent on concave rewards (Lemma 1), which the paper quotes from Zinkevich without proof and which many other online-learning results rest on.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for the dual side fails at one point: in round ttt the primal point xtx^txt is computed from utu^tut, so the reward fi(xt,⋅)f_i(x^t,\cdot)fi​(xt,⋅) that the dual player faces depends on its own current move. A regret bound that assumed rewards fixed in advance, or drawn independently of the learner's play, would not apply. Lemma 1 must be used in its adversarial form, valid for every sequence of reward functions, including adaptively chosen ones. A second point is that the projection step requires the variational characterization of a nearest point in a convex set, which a mere "map into U\mathcal UU" does not provide.

Formalization scope

Points are elements of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin k), so every norm is the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm. The projection is a predicate IsProjOnto U P (each P(y)P(y)P(y) is a nearest point of U\mathcal UU to yyy), not a construction; the oracle is a function (Fin m → E d) → Option (E n) with none for "infeasible", constrained by the predicate IsApproxOracle on inputs in Um\mathcal U^mUm. The goal is quantified over every oracle meeting that specification. The gradient ∇ufi(x,u)\nabla_u f_i(x,u)∇u​fi​(x,u) is a given map gradU with HasGradientAt at points of U\mathcal UU; no differentiability in xxx is assumed. Rounds are indexed by natural numbers with index 000 for the initialization; the starting primal point x0∈Dx^0\in\mathcal Dx0∈D, used by the first update and left undefined by the algorithm, is an input. Hypotheses D>0D>0D>0 and G>0G>0G>0 are added so that η\etaη and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 are meaningful. Maxima over U\mathcal UU are stated as "for every u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U".

Explicit instantiations and corrections:

  • The paper's "O(G2D2/ϵ2)O(G^2D^2/\epsilon^2)O(G2D2/ϵ2) calls" is stated as at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ calls (one call per round, TTT rounds).
  • Lemma 1's "G≥max⁡t∥ft(xt)∥G\ge\max_t\|f_t(x_t)\|G≥maxt​∥ft​(xt​)∥" is read as the gradient bound ∥∇ft(xt)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x_t)\|\le G∥∇ft​(xt​)∥≤G, as the same sentence describes it.
  • The proof's "Combining (10) and (12)" refers to (6) and (7).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: an oracle specification under which "infeasible" is never returned, or an output that is not the average of the oracle's answers, would not be Theorem 3. The "infeasible" conclusion is about the robust problem, not the nominal one.

A complete development needs the variational inequality for nearest points in a convex set, the gradient (supergradient) inequality for a concave function differentiable at a point of a convex set, Zinkevich's telescoping argument, and Jensen's inequality for finite averages. The first two and Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014; Operations Research 63(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361v1
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Deriving Robust Counterparts of Nonlinear Uncertain Inequalities: For a Regular Nominal Vector, a Concave Uncertain Constraint Holds Robustly iff Its Fenchel Counterpart (FRC) Is SolvableResearch Paper

Motivation

In robust optimization, a decision must satisfy a constraint for every parameter value in a prescribed uncertainty set. A nonlinear uncertain constraint can be difficult to use directly because it contains a universal condition over a continuum of parameters. Ben-Tal, den Hertog, and Vial study constraints whose value is concave in the uncertain parameter. Their Theorem 2 replaces the universal condition by one inequality involving a new vector and two conjugate functions. The replacement is the general framework used for the paper's later examples, including uncertainty regions assembled from simpler sets and nonlinear functions whose conjugates have explicit forms. The discussion paper, §§2–4 is the source for this mission; theorem and page numbers refer to that 2012 version.

The paper's result extends a more specialized counterpart for a linear uncertain constraint under a φ-divergence uncertainty region. That 2013 result has a proved formalization on Prove2Me, but its divergence-specific conjugate and uncertainty set are different objects. The same earlier formalization also supplies a proved version of the self-concordant-barrier statement that this paper quotes as Lemma 33, with a differently printed constant. Neither earlier theorem supplies the general concave-constraint result here.

Setting

Fix dimensions m,n,Lm,n,Lm,n,L. The nominal vector is a0∈Rma^0\in\mathbb R^ma0∈Rm, and A∈Rm×LA\in\mathbb R^{m\times L}A∈Rm×L maps a primitive uncertainty ζ∈Z⊆RL\zeta\in Z\subseteq\mathbb R^Lζ∈Z⊆RL to an uncertain parameter a=a0+Aζa=a^0+A\zetaa=a0+Aζ. Thus the uncertainty set is U={a0+Aζ:ζ∈Z}U=\{a^0+A\zeta:\zeta\in Z\}U={a0+Aζ:ζ∈Z}. The paper assumes that ZZZ is nonempty, convex, and compact, with 000 in its relative interior ri⁡Z\operatorname{ri}ZriZ. Relative interior is taken inside the affine hull of a set, so ZZZ may lie in a lower-dimensional plane.

A decision is x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn. For each decision, D(x)D(x)D(x) is the effective domain of the uncertain constraint f(⋅,x)f(\cdot,x)f(⋅,x): f(a,x)f(a,x)f(a,x) is real on D(x)D(x)D(x) and is interpreted as −∞-\infty−∞ outside it. The function is concave in aaa on D(x)D(x)D(x) for every xxx; the paper imposes no convexity assumption in the decision xxx. The robust constraint (RC) is f(a,x)≤0f(a,x)\le0f(a,x)≤0 for every a∈Ua\in Ua∈U. In the domain representation used here, this means every a∈U∩D(x)a\in U\cap D(x)a∈U∩D(x). The nominal vector is regular when a0∈ri⁡D(x)a^0\in\operatorname{ri}D(x)a0∈riD(x) for every decision xxx, as in Definition 1.

The support function of SSS is δ∗(y∣S)=sup⁡a∈SyTa\delta^*(y\mid S)=\sup_{a\in S}y^Taδ∗(y∣S)=supa∈S​yTa. The partial concave conjugate is f∗(v,x)=inf⁡a∈D(x)(aTv−f(a,x))f_*(v,x)=\inf_{a\in D(x)}(a^Tv-f(a,x))f∗​(v,x)=infa∈D(x)​(aTv−f(a,x)). Both have extended-real values: an empty support set has support value −∞-\infty−∞, and the conjugate can be −∞-\infty−∞ when its infimum is unbounded below. These values matter in the equivalence; replacing them by a default real number changes the constraint.

Formalization targets

The goal is the paper's Theorem 2. Under the standing assumptions and regularity, for every decision xxx,

[∀a∈U∩D(x), f(a,x)≤0]⟺[∃v∈Rm: (a0)Tv+δ∗(ATv∣Z)−f∗(v,x)≤0].\left[\forall a\in U\cap D(x),\ f(a,x)\le0\right] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \left[\exists v\in\mathbb R^m:\ (a^0)^Tv+\delta^*(A^Tv\mid Z)-f_*(v,x)\le0\right].[∀a∈U∩D(x), f(a,x)≤0]⟺[∃v∈Rm: (a0)Tv+δ∗(ATv∣Z)−f∗​(v,x)≤0].

The right-hand inequality is the Fenchel robust counterpart (FRC). Its existence claim is essential: equality of primal and dual infima alone would not show that an auxiliary vector satisfying FRC exists.

Four source statements form the milestone path. Remark 5 gives the weak-duality inequality and the FRC-to-RC implication without concavity. Equations (16)–(18) calculate the support function of UUU. Equation (7) states the relative-interior qualification. Equations (13)–(15) state the worst-case/dual-value identity and, through the printed minimum, attainment of the dual infimum. The milestone list quotes those source passages and identifies their printed pages. Theorem 2 and its proof appear on pp. 4–5.

Significance

The equivalence gives an exact way to replace an infinite family of uncertain inequalities by an existential constraint. In examples where the support function and concave conjugate can be evaluated or represented with standard optimization constraints, it yields a finite robust counterpart. The conclusion remains a mathematical equivalence even when such an explicit representation has not been found. It is also independent of any convexity of fff in the decision variable, a point the paper makes after Corollary 3.

This mission supplies reusable, domain-aware support and conjugate definitions and formal statements for the duality path in the paper's central result. The new goal and milestones are open proof obligations: their Lean declarations compile, but they do not yet have machine-checked proofs. The proved 2013 φ-divergence case is narrower and does not close them. A completed development would make the general relative-interior and attained-duality steps reusable for other robust optimization models.

Difficulty

The delicate point is the direction from RC to the existence of an FRC vector. Weak duality gives only a one-sided bound. Identifying the two optimal values still leaves an existence question when an infimum is not attained. The paper invokes Fenchel duality under a relative-interior intersection condition; replacing relative interior by ordinary interior would exclude lower-dimensional uncertainty sets and effective domains that the source permits. A second difficulty is keeping finite and infinite conjugate values distinct while subtracting them in the counterpart inequality. An unbounded-below conjugate must make a finite-support FRC value +∞+\infty+∞, not a plausible finite number.

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions on Fin m, Fin n, and Fin L; AAA is a real matrix, and dot products use the finite-vector dot product. Mathlib's intrinsicInterior ℝ represents relative interior. The domain map D(x)D(x)D(x) is explicit, with the concavity hypothesis imposed on that domain. The real representative of fff outside D(x)D(x)D(x) is ignored everywhere. The paper's Notation paragraph calls its generic concave functions closed, but the statements here omit closedness: the finite-dimensional duality qualification used for Theorem 2 needs relative-interior overlap, not that extra regularity. This is a stated strengthening of the source theorem, not a change of its feasible points.

Support functions, conjugates, worst-case values, and dual values use EReal. The paper's “max” in (8), (13), and Remark 5 is read as an extended-real supremum; its “min” in (15) is an infimum accompanied by an attaining vector. The support identity includes Z=∅Z=\varnothingZ=∅, where both sides are −∞-\infty−∞, although Theorem 2 keeps the paper's nonempty, convex, compact ZZZ. On the theorem's hypotheses the support value is finite and D(x)D(x)D(x) is nonempty, so the undefined-looking combinations +∞−(+∞)+\infty-(+\infty)+∞−(+∞) and −∞+(+∞)-\infty+(+\infty)−∞+(+∞) cannot occur in FRC. No all-space real-valued substitute for f∗f_*f∗​ is used, and the theorem still quantifies over every decision and every allowed uncertainty vector.

The proof development needs finite-dimensional relative-interior behavior under affine maps and Fenchel duality with attainment. General convex conjugates and support functions can serve later missions. Corollary 3 and the paper's complexity discussion are outside this mission. Theorem A.1 is not separately made a milestone here: as printed, its domain-restricted dual maximum has a problematic −∞-\infty−∞ case; the directly used, attained identity (13)–(15) is the target under the main theorem's standing assumptions.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, J.-P. Vial, Deriving robust counterparts of nonlinear uncertain inequalities, CentER Discussion Paper 2012-053, Tilburg University, 2012. Discussion-paper PDF; journal version, Mathematical Programming, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s10107-014-0750-8.
  • A. Ben-Tal et al., Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities, Management Science, 2013. Prove2Me formalization of its φ-divergence case.
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Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 2: Follow the Perturbed Leader with an ε-Approximate Linear Oracle Has Expected Regret at Most 2√(DRAT) + 2εTResearch Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems are solved repeatedly against data that arrive over time: routing traffic, allocating budgets, choosing portfolios or combinatorial structures. Online linear optimization models this. At each round t=1,…,Tt = 1, \ldots, Tt=1,…,T a learner picks a decision xtx_txt​ from a fixed domain K⊆Rn\mathcal K\subseteq\mathbb R^nK⊆Rn, then a reward vector ftf_tft​ is revealed and the learner earns ft⋅xtf_t\cdot x_tft​⋅xt​. Performance is measured by regret, the gap to the best fixed decision in hindsight. When K\mathcal KK is combinatorial (paths, spanning trees, assignments), the only computationally reasonable access to K\mathcal KK is a procedure that optimizes a linear function over it, and in practice such procedures are often only approximate.

Follow the Perturbed Leader (FPL), introduced by Hannan (1957) and analysed for linear optimization by Kalai and Vempala (JCSS 2005), uses exactly one call to an exact linear optimizer per round and achieves regret O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) over arbitrary, not necessarily convex, domains. Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) needed a version of FPL that works with an additively approximate linear optimizer, as a building block for oracle-based robust optimization with linearly parametrized uncertainty sets. Their §3.3 analyses this variant and proves Theorem 6, the goal of this mission.

Setting

Fix a dimension nnn, a domain K⊆Rn\mathcal K\subseteq\mathbb R^nK⊆Rn (arbitrary: not necessarily convex, closed or bounded) and ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0. An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate linear optimization procedure over K\mathcal KK is a map Mϵ:Rn→RnM_\epsilon:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nMϵ​:Rn→Rn such that, for every g∈Rng\in\mathbb R^ng∈Rn,

Mϵ(g)∈Kandg⋅Mϵ(g)  ≥  g⋅x−ϵfor all x∈K.M_\epsilon(g)\in\mathcal K \qquad\text{and}\qquad g\cdot M_\epsilon(g)\;\ge\; g\cdot x-\epsilon\quad\text{for all }x\in\mathcal K .Mϵ​(g)∈Kandg⋅Mϵ​(g)≥g⋅x−ϵfor all x∈K.

Reward vectors f1,…,fT∈Rnf_1,\ldots,f_T\in\mathbb R^nf1​,…,fT​∈Rn are fixed in advance (an oblivious adversary). Write f1:t=∑τ=1tfτf_{1:t}=\sum_{\tau=1}^t f_\tauf1:t​=∑τ=1t​fτ​, with f1:0=0f_{1:0}=0f1:0​=0, and ∥v∥1=∑i∣vi∣\|v\|_1=\sum_i|v_i|∥v∥1​=∑i​∣vi​∣.

Follow the Approximate Perturbed Leader with parameter η>0\eta>0η>0 plays at round ttt

xt=Mϵ(f1:t−1+pt),pt uniform on the cube [0,1/η]n.x_t = M_\epsilon\big(f_{1:t-1}+p_t\big),\qquad p_t \text{ uniform on the cube } [0,1/\eta]^n .xt​=Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+pt​),pt​ uniform on the cube [0,1/η]n.

Three scale parameters enter the bound: DDD bounds the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ diameter of K\mathcal KK, ∥x−y∥1≤D\|x-y\|_1\le D∥x−y∥1​≤D for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K; AAA bounds ∥ft∥1\|f_t\|_1∥ft​∥1​; and RRR bounds how much each reward varies over the domain, ∣ft⋅x−ft⋅y∣≤R|f_t\cdot x-f_t\cdot y|\le R∣ft​⋅x−ft​⋅y∣≤R for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 11)

With η=D/(RAT)\eta=\sqrt{D/(RAT)}η=D/(RAT)​, for every x∗∈Kx^*\in\mathcal Kx∗∈K,

∑t=1Tft⋅x∗−E[∑t=1Tft⋅xt]  ≤  2DRAT+2ϵT.\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x^* - \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x_t\Big]\;\le\;2\sqrt{DRAT}+2\epsilon T .t=1∑T​ft​⋅x∗−E[t=1∑T​ft​⋅xt​]≤2DRAT​+2ϵT.

The bound for every η\etaη (proof of Theorem 6, p. 13)

For every η>0\eta>0η>0 and x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K,

E[∑t=1Tft⋅xt]  ≥  f1:T⋅x−Dη−ηRAT−2ϵT.\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x_t\Big]\;\ge\; f_{1:T}\cdot x-\frac D\eta-\eta RAT-2\epsilon T .E[t=1∑T​ft​⋅xt​]≥f1:T​⋅x−ηD​−ηRAT−2ϵT.

Supporting lemmas (pp. 12–13)

  • Lemma 7 (approximate be-the-leader): ∑t=1TMϵ(f1:t)⋅ft≥Mϵ(f1:T)⋅f1:T−ϵT\sum_{t=1}^T M_\epsilon(f_{1:t})\cdot f_t\ge M_\epsilon(f_{1:T})\cdot f_{1:T}-\epsilon T∑t=1T​Mϵ​(f1:t​)⋅ft​≥Mϵ​(f1:T​)⋅f1:T​−ϵT.
  • Lemma 8 (be the approximate perturbed leader): for T≥2T\ge2T≥2, p∈[0,1/η]np\in[0,1/\eta]^np∈[0,1/η]n and x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K, ∑t=1TMϵ(f1:t+p)⋅ft≥f1:T⋅x−D/η−2ϵT\sum_{t=1}^T M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)\cdot f_t\ge f_{1:T}\cdot x-D/\eta-2\epsilon T∑t=1T​Mϵ​(f1:t​+p)⋅ft​≥f1:T​⋅x−D/η−2ϵT.
  • Lemma 9 (stability): for ppp uniform on [0,1/η]n[0,1/\eta]^n[0,1/η]n, E[Mϵ(f1:t−1+p)⋅ft]−E[Mϵ(f1:t+p)⋅ft]≥−ηRA\mathbf E[M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)\cdot f_t]-\mathbf E[M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)\cdot f_t]\ge-\eta RAE[Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p)⋅ft​]−E[Mϵ​(f1:t​+p)⋅ft​]≥−ηRA.

Significance

Theorem 6 shows that perturbed-leader online linear optimization is robust to additive error in its optimization subroutine: an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle costs only 2ϵT2\epsilon T2ϵT extra regret, so the average regret is 2DRA/T+2ϵ2\sqrt{DRA/T}+2\epsilon2DRA/T​+2ϵ. This allows the algorithm to be run over domains where exact linear optimization is intractable but a good additive approximation is available, and the paper invokes it as the online-learning primitive of its oracle-based scheme for linearly parametrized uncertainty in §3.2 (that application is not part of this mission). Unlike online gradient methods, it requires no convexity of K\mathcal KK and no projection.

On the formal side, no regret bound for Follow the Perturbed Leader, exact or approximate, is currently formalized on the platform, and the Kalai–Vempala stability argument (comparing a uniform distribution on a cube with its translate) is a reusable piece of measure theory. The mission's statements are proved on paper; the work here is to formalize those proofs, with one correction to a hypothesis, explained under Formalization scope.

Difficulty

Lemmas 7 and 8 are deterministic and combinatorial. The substance is Lemma 9. It compares the expectations of one bounded function of Mϵ(⋅)M_\epsilon(\cdot)Mϵ​(⋅) under the uniform law on a cube and under its translate by ftf_tft​. The natural first attempt, a pointwise comparison of Mϵ(f1:t−1+p)M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p) and Mϵ(f1:t+p)M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)Mϵ​(f1:t​+p), fails: an approximate (even an exact) maximizer can jump arbitrarily under an arbitrarily small change of its input, and MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ is not assumed continuous or even consistent between nearby inputs. Any valid argument must therefore control the two distributions as a whole rather than the decisions point by point, which in the formal development involves Lebesgue measure on Rn\mathbb R^nRn, conditioning on a box and translation invariance.

A second subtlety is that the stability bound depends on how RRR is read, which is the reason for the correction below.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ with dotProduct. All ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ quantities are written as ∑i∣vi∣\sum_i|v_i|∑i​∣vi​∣, never with the default norm (the sup norm). Rewards are a function f : ℕ → Fin n → ℝ read at t=1,…,Tt=1,\ldots,Tt=1,…,T, and f1:tf_{1:t}f1:t​ is prefixSum f t. The perturbation law is Lebesgue measure conditioned on the cube [0,1/η]n[0,1/\eta]^n[0,1/η]n (ProbabilityTheory.cond volume), a probability measure for η>0\eta>0η>0. Maxima over K\mathcal KK are expressed as "for every x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K", so neither attainment nor boundedness of K\mathcal KK is presupposed.

Conventions and deviations, each also stated in the affected item:

  1. RRR is an oscillation bound. The paper takes R≥max⁡t,x∣ft⋅x∣R\ge\max_{t,x}|f_t\cdot x|R≥maxt,x​∣ft​⋅x∣. With that reading Lemma 9 is false (for K={−1,1}\mathcal K=\{-1,1\}K={−1,1}, the exact maximizer, f1:t−1=−Af_{1:t-1}=-Af1:t−1​=−A, ft=A=Rf_t=A=Rft​=A=R, ηA≤1\eta A\le1ηA≤1, the left side is −2ηRA-2\eta RA−2ηRA), and the printed constant in Theorem 6 does not follow. The proof's step "they can differ by at most RRR" is correct when R≥∣ft⋅x−ft⋅y∣R\ge|f_t\cdot x-f_t\cdot y|R≥∣ft​⋅x−ft​⋅y∣ for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K; Lemma 9, the display and Theorem 6 are stated with that hypothesis. The printed hypothesis implies it with 2R2R2R; for non-negative rewards the two coincide.
  2. Expected reward. E[∑tft⋅xt]\mathbf E[\sum_t f_t\cdot x_t]E[∑t​ft​⋅xt​] is written as ∑t∫ft⋅Mϵ(f1:t−1+p) dμη(p)\sum_t\int f_t\cdot M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)\,d\mu_\eta(p)∑t​∫ft​⋅Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p)dμη​(p), which by linearity of expectation is the same for independent or shared perturbations (the paper makes the same observation).
  3. Printed typos. In (13) the summand ftf_tft​ is fτf_\taufτ​ and round ttt uses f1:t−1f_{1:t-1}f1:t−1​; in Lemma 8 and the display, max⁡xf1:t⋅x\max_{x}f_{1:t}\cdot xmaxx​f1:t​⋅x means f1:Tf_{1:T}f1:T​.
  4. Added hypotheses. MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ is measurable (otherwise every expectation would be a Bochner integral of a non-measurable function and equal 000); an approximate maximizer can always be chosen measurable. D,R,A>0D,R,A>0D,R,A>0 and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 make η=D/(RAT)\eta=\sqrt{D/(RAT)}η=D/(RAT)​ a positive real. The display is stated for T≥1T\ge1T≥1 (Lemma 8 needs T≥2T\ge2T≥2 as printed; the case T=1T=1T=1 also holds).
  5. No O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) appears: all constants are the paper's explicit ones.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ must return points of K\mathcal KK (otherwise DDD would not bound ∥Mϵ(⋅)−Mϵ(⋅)∥1\|M_\epsilon(\cdot)-M_\epsilon(\cdot)\|_1∥Mϵ​(⋅)−Mϵ​(⋅)∥1​), it must be measurable, and the perturbation law is the normalized uniform distribution, not Lebesgue measure restricted to the cube (which is not a probability measure for η≠1\eta\neq1η=1).

Needed infrastructure: the overlap estimate for a cube and its translate, vol([0,1/η]n∩(v+[0,1/η]n))≥(1−η∥v∥1) η−n\mathrm{vol}([0,1/\eta]^n\cap(v+[0,1/\eta]^n))\ge(1-\eta\|v\|_1)\,\eta^{-n}vol([0,1/η]n∩(v+[0,1/η]n))≥(1−η∥v∥1​)η−n, and the integrability of bounded measurable functions of MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​. Both are reusable for any perturbation-based online-learning analysis; contributions of these as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, Operations Research 63(3), 2015; preprint arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361
  • A. Kalai, S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for online decision problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71(3), 291–307, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcss.2004.10.016
  • J. Hannan, Approximation to Bayes risk in repeated play, Contributions to the Theory of Games III, Annals of Mathematics Studies 39, 97–139, 1957.
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Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 1: Square-Root LASSO Is Wasserstein DRO — the Worst-Case Squared Loss over D_c(P, P_n) ≤ δ Equals (√MSE_n(β) + √δ‖β‖_p)²Research Paper

Motivation

Regularized least squares is the standard tool of high-dimensional linear regression. The square-root LASSO of Belloni, Chernozhukov and Wang (Biometrika, 2011) minimizes MSEn(β)+λ∥β∥1\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \lambda\|\beta\|_1MSEn​(β)​+λ∥β∥1​. Unlike the LASSO, its optimal regularization parameter does not depend on the unknown noise level. Regularization is usually justified through sparsity or bias–variance arguments. Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) give a different justification. The square-root LASSO, and every ℓp\ell_pℓp​-penalized square-root least-squares estimator, is exactly a distributionally robust estimator. It minimizes the worst-case expected square loss over all data distributions within a given optimal-transport distance of the empirical distribution.

The rest of the paper builds on this representation: the radius of the transport ball is the regularization parameter, which the paper's Robust Wasserstein Profile function selects by a statistical criterion (mission 3 of this series). The duality theorem underneath, Proposition 1, is due to Blanchet and Murthy (Math. Oper. Res., 2019). Closely related representations for logistic regression appear in Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (NeurIPS 2015), where they are approximate. The cost function introduced in this paper makes them exact.

Setting

The training data are n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 pairs (X1,Y1),…,(Xn,Yn)(X_1, Y_1), \dots, (X_n, Y_n)(X1​,Y1​),…,(Xn​,Yn​) with predictors Xi∈RdX_i \in \mathbb R^dXi​∈Rd and responses Yi∈RY_i \in \mathbb RYi​∈R. No distributional assumption is made; the data are fixed vectors. The empirical distribution is Pn=1n∑i=1nδ(Xi,Yi)P_n = \frac1n \sum_{i=1}^n \delta_{(X_i, Y_i)}Pn​=n1​∑i=1n​δ(Xi​,Yi​)​. For β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd the square loss is l(x,y;β)=(y−βTx)2l(x, y; \beta) = (y - \beta^T x)^2l(x,y;β)=(y−βTx)2 and the mean square error is MSEn(β)=1n∑i=1n(Yi−βTXi)2\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta) = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n (Y_i - \beta^T X_i)^2MSEn​(β)=n1​∑i=1n​(Yi​−βTXi​)2.

A cost function ccc assigns to two points z,wz, wz,w of Rd×R\mathbb R^d \times \mathbb RRd×R a value c(z,w)∈[0,∞]c(z, w) \in [0, \infty]c(z,w)∈[0,∞], the cost of moving a unit of mass from zzz to www. The optimal transport cost between probability measures PPP and QQQ is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on pairs (U,W), πU=P, πW=Q}.(7)D_c(P, Q) = \inf\Big\{ \mathbb E_\pi[c(U, W)] : \pi \text{ a probability measure on pairs } (U, W),\ \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q \Big\}. \qquad (7)Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on pairs (U,W), πU​=P, πW​=Q}.(7)

The worst-case expected loss at radius δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 is sup⁡P:Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[l(X,Y;β)]\sup_{P : D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P[l(X, Y; \beta)]supP:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δ​EP​[l(X,Y;β)], and the distributionally robust regression problem (8) minimizes it over β\betaβ.

Two costs are used. With q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞]:

  • the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, c((x,y),(u,v))=∥(x,y)−(u,v)∥q2c((x, y), (u, v)) = \|(x, y) - (u, v)\|_q^2c((x,y),(u,v))=∥(x,y)−(u,v)∥q2​ (Proposition 2);
  • the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​, where (14) Nq((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥qN_q((x, y), (u, v)) = \|x - u\|_qNq​((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q​ if y=vy = vy=v and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise. Under this cost the responses cannot be moved, and only the predictors are perturbed (Theorem 1).

The exponent ppp is the dual of qqq, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1, and βˉ=(−β,1)\bar\beta = (-\beta, 1)βˉ​=(−β,1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 11)

For the cost c=Nq2c = N_q^2c=Nq2​, every δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 and every β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd,

sup⁡P: Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[(Y−βTX)2]=(MSEn(β)+δ ∥β∥p)2,\sup_{P :\, D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(Y - \beta^T X)^2\big] = \Big(\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \sqrt\delta\,\|\beta\|_p\Big)^2 ,P:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(Y−βTX)2]=(MSEn​(β)​+δ​∥β∥p​)2,

and consequently

inf⁡β∈Rdsup⁡P: Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[(Y−βTX)2]=inf⁡β∈Rd(MSEn(β)+δ ∥β∥p)2.\inf_{\beta \in \mathbb R^d} \sup_{P :\, D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(Y - \beta^T X)^2\big] = \inf_{\beta \in \mathbb R^d} \Big(\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \sqrt\delta\,\|\beta\|_p\Big)^2 .β∈Rdinf​P:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(Y−βTX)2]=β∈Rdinf​(MSEn​(β)​+δ​∥β∥p​)2.

The second identity is the printed theorem; the first is what its proof establishes for each β\betaβ. The goal states both.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): strong duality. For a lower semicontinuous cost vanishing on the diagonal, an upper semicontinuous loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, the worst-case expected loss equals min⁡γ≥0{γδ+1n∑iφγ(Xi,Yi)}\min_{\gamma \ge 0} \{\gamma\delta + \frac1n \sum_i \varphi_\gamma(X_i, Y_i)\}minγ≥0​{γδ+n1​∑i​φγ​(Xi​,Yi​)}, with φγ(z)=sup⁡u{l(u)−γc(u,z)}\varphi_\gamma(z) = \sup_u \{l(u) - \gamma c(u, z)\}φγ​(z)=supu​{l(u)−γc(u,z)} (11).
  2. (28) (pp. 28–29): the closed form of φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ for the square loss and the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost.
  3. (29) and the display after it (p. 29): inf⁡γ>b2{γδ+γγ−b2M}=(M+bδ)2\inf_{\gamma > b^2} \{\gamma\delta + \frac{\gamma}{\gamma - b^2} M\} = (\sqrt M + b\sqrt\delta)^2infγ>b2​{γδ+γ−b2γ​M}=(M​+bδ​)2 for M,b,δ≥0M, b, \delta \ge 0M,b,δ≥0.
  4. Proposition 2 (p. 10): the analogue of the goal for the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost, with ∥βˉ∥p\|\bar\beta\|_p∥βˉ​∥p​ in place of ∥β∥p\|\beta\|_p∥β∥p​ (13).
  5. Outline of the proof of Theorem 1, last display (p. 29): the closed form of φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ for the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 identifies ℓp\ell_pℓp​-penalized square-root least squares with a min–max problem over data distributions. For q=∞q = \inftyq=∞, p=1p = 1p=1 the minimizers are those of the square-root LASSO with λ=δ\lambda = \sqrt\deltaλ=δ​. The regularization parameter therefore acquires a meaning: it is the square root of the transport budget an adversary may spend perturbing the predictors. This is the basis of the paper's choice of δ\deltaδ by the Robust Wasserstein Profile function (§4), and of the interpretation of regularized estimators as robust to covariate perturbations. Proposition 2 shows that letting the adversary also move the responses changes the penalty to ∥(−β,1)∥p\|(-\beta, 1)\|_p∥(−β,1)∥p​, which is why the label-preserving cost NqN_qNq​ is needed for an exact match.

Formalizing it. All results are proved on paper; none is formalized. A complete development gives a machine-checked strong-duality theorem for optimal-transport balls with possibly infinite costs (Proposition 1), two explicit worst-case computations, and corrected boundary cases of the closed forms (28) and the outline display, which print +∞+\infty+∞ for all γ≤∥βˉ∥p2\gamma \le \|\bar\beta\|_p^2γ≤∥βˉ​∥p2​ although the value can be finite at equality. The corrections do not affect the theorems.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails in two places. The first is the duality step: the supremum ranges over all Borel probability measures on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1 within transport cost δ\deltaδ, an infinite-dimensional set that is not compact in any convenient topology, with a loss that is unbounded above. Exchanging the supremum with the Lagrange multiplier of the budget constraint is Proposition 1, a theorem in its own right (Blanchet–Murthy), and its attainment claim needs δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.

The second is the cost NqN_qNq​, which is +∞+\infty+∞ off {y=v}\{y = v\}{y=v}, so the standard Wasserstein duality theorems, which assume a finite metric cost, do not apply. The degenerate cases β=0\beta = 0β=0, MSEn(β)=0\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta) = 0MSEn​(β)=0, δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, where the objective in γ\gammaγ does not blow up at both ends, must be covered separately.

Formalization scope

  • Spaces. A data point is a pair in (Fin d → ℝ) × ℝ with the product σ-algebra and topology. Proposition 2's cost uses the stacked vector in Fin (d+1) → ℝ (response last, built with Fin.snoc), and βˉ\bar\betaβˉ​ is the stacked vector of (−β,1)(-\beta, 1)(−β,1).
  • Norms. ∥⋅∥q\|\cdot\|_q∥⋅∥q​ and ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ are the norms of PiLp, with exponents in ℝ≥0∞, so q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ (the square-root LASSO case) is included. The exponents are linked by p.HolderConjugate q, and q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞] throughout. Theorem 1 does not print a range for qqq; the range is taken from Proposition 2, which the paper calls essentially the same result.
  • Transport cost and worst case. Costs are ℝ≥0∞-valued, and DcD_cDc​ is an infimum over probability couplings with both marginals fixed. Expectations of the nonnegative losses are lower Lebesgue integrals, and the worst case is a supremum in ℝ≥0∞ over all probability measures in the ball. No integrability side condition removes measures from the ball. Identities with a real right-hand side are stated after embedding it with ENNReal.ofReal.
  • The empirical distribution is the published definition WassersteinDRO.Regularization.empiricalDistribution, applied to i↦(Xi,Yi)i \mapsto (X_i, Y_i)i↦(Xi​,Yi​), with n>0n > 0n>0.
  • φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​. A point at infinite cost contributes −∞-\infty−∞ for every γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, including γ=0\gamma = 0γ=0, as in the paper's treatment of NqN_qNq​. With the convention 0⋅∞=00 \cdot \infty = 00⋅∞=0 instead, Proposition 1's minimum would not be attained for the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​ at β=0\beta = 0β=0.
  • Proposition 1 is stated for a nonnegative loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; both are restrictions of the page, recorded in the item.
  • Corrections. (28) and the outline display are stated with their corrected boundary cases. The one-dimensional lemma behind (29) is stated as a greatest lower bound over γ>b2\gamma > b^2γ>b2, including b=0b = 0b=0, M=0M = 0M=0, δ=0\delta = 0δ=0.

A formalization in which the transport infimum did not fix both marginals, allowed sub-probability couplings, or used a Bochner integral would make the worst case trivially +∞+\infty+∞ or 000. The conventions above rule this out: at δ=0\delta = 0δ=0 the ball is {Pn}\{P_n\}{Pn​} and both sides of the goal equal MSEn(β)\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)MSEn​(β).

The work needs Kantorovich-type duality for lower semicontinuous costs on Rm\mathbb R^mRm (absent from Mathlib), Hölder's inequality with its equality case for PiLp, and elementary one-variable optimization. The duality theorem and the transport-cost definition are reusable beyond this mission: mission 2 of this series (classification) uses Proposition 1 with the cost NqN_qNq​, ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1. Contributions that prove Proposition 1, or its weak-duality half, are particularly welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying distributional model risk via optimal transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • A. Belloni, V. Chernozhukov, L. Wang, Square-root lasso: pivotal recovery of sparse signals via conic programming, Biometrika 98(4), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asr043
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally robust logistic regression, NeurIPS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 2: The Distortion Risk Measures with Centrally Symmetric Permutohulls Are the Mixtures of ⌊N/2⌋+1 GeneratorsResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear decision made with uncertain coefficients can be protected by requiring the constraint to hold for every coefficient vector in an uncertainty set. Choosing that set determines how conservative the decision is. Bertsimas and Brown connect this choice to a risk measure: a functional that assigns a cost to the random reward left by a decision. Their construction turns certain risk constraints into robust linear constraints over a convex hull of weighted samples. This mission isolates the structural question asked in §4.4 of their paper: which such risk measures always produce uncertainty sets that are centrally symmetric about the sample mean? The answer matters because this symmetric family is the class used in the paper's subsequent approximation of general polyhedral uncertainty sets. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), §§4.3–4.5.

Setting

There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 observations, indexed by i=1,…,Ni=1,\ldots,Ni=1,…,N, with equal reference probabilities. A probability weight vector q=(q1,…,qN)q=(q_1,\ldots,q_N)q=(q1​,…,qN​) has nonnegative entries summing to one. The restricted simplex Δ^N\widehat\Delta^NΔN contains those vectors whose entries are nonincreasing: q1≥⋯≥qNq_1\ge\cdots\ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​. For a reward vector X=(x1,…,xN)X=(x_1,\ldots,x_N)X=(x1​,…,xN​), write x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)}\le\cdots\le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ for its increasing order statistics. The associated distortion risk measure is μq(X)=−∑iqix(i)\mu_q(X)=-\sum_iq_i x_{(i)}μq​(X)=−∑i​qi​x(i)​. A larger reward therefore reduces risk. Under the uniform distribution, the paper's Theorem 4.2 identifies these functionals, for q∈Δ^Nq\in\widehat\Delta^Nq∈ΔN, with its distortion risk measures. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Theorem 4.2.

Take arbitrary sample vectors a1,…,aN∈Rna_1,\ldots,a_N\in\mathbb R^na1​,…,aN​∈Rn. For a permutation σ\sigmaσ of their indices, form the weighted vector ∑iqσ(i)ai\sum_iq_{\sigma(i)}a_i∑i​qσ(i)​ai​. The qqq-permutohull Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) is the convex hull of all these vectors. Its center of interest is the sample mean a^=N−1∑iai\widehat a=N^{-1}\sum_i a_ia=N−1∑i​ai​. A set PPP is centrally symmetric through x0∈Px_0\in Px0​∈P when x0+x∈Px_0+x\in Px0​+x∈P implies x0−x∈Px_0-x\in Px0​−x∈P for every xxx. The quantifier “for any data” ranges over every dimension nnn and every choice of NNN sample vectors. It is stronger than symmetry for one selected data set. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Definitions 4.7–4.8.

Formalization targets

The first target is Proposition 4.1's characterization of weights giving universal symmetry. If eNe_NeN​ is the vector with every entry 1/N1/N1/N, then

[Πq(A) is centrally symmetric through a^ for every n,A]⟺∃σ∈SN: q=2eN−qσ.\bigl[\Pi_q(\mathcal A)\text{ is centrally symmetric through }\widehat a \text{ for every }n,\mathcal A\bigr] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \exists\sigma\in S_N:\ q=2e_N-q_\sigma.[Πq​(A) is centrally symmetric through a for every n,A]⟺∃σ∈SN​: q=2eN​−qσ​.

This condition defines the symmetric restricted simplex Δ^symN\widehat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}ΔsymN​ inside Δ^N\widehat\Delta^NΔN. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Proposition 4.1 and Definition 4.9.

The main target is Theorem 4.4. Put N^=⌊N/2⌋+1\widehat N=\lfloor N/2\rfloor+1N=⌊N/2⌋+1. For 1≤j≤N^1\le j\le\widehat N1≤j≤N, define a generator qˉ j\bar q^{\,j}qˉ​j by

qˉi j={2/N,i<j,1/N,j≤i≤N−j+1,0,otherwise.\bar q_i^{\,j}= \begin{cases} 2/N,&i<j,\\ 1/N,&j\le i\le N-j+1,\\ 0,&\text{otherwise}. \end{cases}qˉ​ij​=⎩⎨⎧​2/N,1/N,0,​i<j,j≤i≤N−j+1,otherwise.​

A functional represented by a q∈Δ^Nq\in\widehat\Delta^Nq∈ΔN whose permutohull is symmetric for every data set is exactly a convex mixture of the N^\widehat NN generator functionals:

μ(X)=∑j=1N^λjμqˉ j(X),λj≥0,∑j=1N^λj=1.\mu(X)=\sum_{j=1}^{\widehat N}\lambda_j\mu_{\bar q^{\,j}}(X), \qquad \lambda_j\ge0,\qquad\sum_{j=1}^{\widehat N}\lambda_j=1.μ(X)=j=1∑N​λj​μqˉ​j​(X),λj​≥0,j=1∑N​λj​=1.

The milestones also state the two set inclusions behind the equality of Δ^symN\widehat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}ΔsymN​ with the convex hull of these generators, including the coordinate reversal identity. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Theorem 4.4 and its proof.

Significance

The result gives a finite list of risk functionals from which every member of the universally symmetric distortion subclass can be formed. The number of generators is ⌊N/2⌋+1\lfloor N/2\rfloor+1⌊N/2⌋+1, rather than an unspecified family. It also connects a geometric property of a robust uncertainty set to a checkable condition on its weights. The paper uses this symmetric subclass to formulate the inner approximation problem in §4.5, where a symmetric permutohull is fitted inside another polytope. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), §§4.4–4.5.

The mathematical result is proved in the 2009 paper. This formalization task is to obtain Lean proofs of the classification and its source-stated intermediate claims. The definition layer is a reusable interface for finite distortion risk measures, permutohulls, and symmetry under coordinate permutations. Formal proofs here would provide a checked foundation for later robust optimization statements using the same finite sample model. The proposed goal and milestones are open Lean statements; compiling them verifies their syntax and types, not their proofs.

Difficulty

Symmetry of one pictured polygon does not determine its weight vector. The hypothesis demands symmetry for every possible collection of sample vectors, so the converse in Proposition 4.1 must recover a relation among weights from a universal geometric property. Another difficulty is that the explicit generators change shape at the midpoint, and the odd and even cases have different middle ranges. The paper writes the calculation for odd NNN and says the even case is analogous; the theorem itself makes no parity restriction. A proof therefore has to cover the even boundary, including the generator whose 1/N1/N1/N band is empty. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Proposition 4.1 and proof of Theorem 4.4.

Formalization scope

The Lean sample space is Fin N, with N>0N>0N>0. Its indices start at zero; the prose and source formulas above start at one. The source's N^\widehat NN is N / 2 + 1 in natural numbers. Probability vectors use Mathlib's standard simplex together with antitone coordinate order. Permutohulls use convexHull of the finite permutation family, and order statistics use Tuple.sort. The reference distribution is uniform, as in the paper's Assumption 4.1. Real vector spaces of dimension zero are allowed because the claim quantifies over every dimension; the nonempty sample condition excludes division by zero.

The goal takes an arbitrary functional μ\muμ and requires an actual representation μ=μq\mu=\mu_qμ=μq​ by a restricted-simplex weight. This is the paper's Theorem 4.2 parametrization of distortion risk measures, stated directly because that theorem is being drafted in a separate mission of the same series. Universal symmetry is derived from the data quantifier; it is not assumed as a condition on qqq. The generator mixture is likewise the conclusion, with its coefficients nonnegative and summing to one. Central symmetry includes membership of the center in the set.

Useful contributions include proofs of the source's permutation characterization, validity and symmetry of generator mixtures, and their converse spanning property. The definitions of finite probability weights and weighted permutation hulls can support further finite sample robust optimization results. The paper's inconsistent accent on the generator risk measure in Theorem 4.4 is read as the functional of the displayed generator vector; its intermediate sum on p. 1492 does not alter the stated normalized mixture.

Selected references

  • Dimitris Bertsimas and David B. Brown, Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization, Operations Research 57(6), 1483–1495, 2009. DOI: 10.1287/opre.1080.0646.
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Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 1: A Distortion Risk Constraint Equals a Robust Constraint over a Permutohull and an Explicit Linear SystemResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust linear optimization replaces an uncertain constraint a~′x≥b\tilde a'x \ge ba~′x≥b by the requirement that a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b hold for every aaa in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski 1999). The method leaves open where U\mathcal UU should come from. Risk theory answers a related question from the other side: a decision maker's attitude to an uncertain reward is described by a risk measure μ\muμ, and the constraint is imposed as μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0.

Bertsimas and Brown (2009) connect the two. When μ\muμ is coherent and a~\tilde aa~ is supported on finitely many observed data points a1,…,aNa_1, \dots, a_Na1​,…,aN​, the risk constraint is exactly a robust constraint whose uncertainty set is built from the data and the family of probability vectors generating μ\muμ. For the class of distortion risk measures, the uncertainty set has an explicit polyhedral form, the qqq-permutohull of the data, and the robust constraint has a reformulation of polynomial size. This mission formalizes that chain of results, Sections 2–4.3 of the paper.

Setting

The sample space is finite, Ω={ω1,…,ωN}\Omega = \{\omega_1, \dots, \omega_N\}Ω={ω1​,…,ωN​}, and a random variable is a vector X∈RNX \in \mathbb R^NX∈RN, read as a reward; X≥YX \ge YX≥Y means Xi≥YiX_i \ge Y_iXi​≥Yi​ for every iii. The probability simplex is ΔN={p∈R+N:e′p=1}\Delta^N = \{p \in \mathbb R^N_+ : e'p = 1\}ΔN={p∈R+N​:e′p=1}, and Eq[X]=∑iqiXi\mathbb E_q[X] = \sum_i q_i X_iEq​[X]=∑i​qi​Xi​.

A risk measure is a function μ:RN→R\mu : \mathbb R^N \to \mathbb Rμ:RN→R with X≥Y⇒μ(X)≤μ(Y)X \ge Y \Rightarrow \mu(X) \le \mu(Y)X≥Y⇒μ(X)≤μ(Y) and μ(X+c)=μ(X)−c\mu(X + c) = \mu(X) - cμ(X+c)=μ(X)−c. It is coherent if it is moreover convex and positively homogeneous. A set Q⊆ΔN\mathcal Q \subseteq \Delta^NQ⊆ΔN generates μ\muμ if μ(X)=sup⁡q∈QEq[−X]\mu(X) = \sup_{q \in \mathcal Q} \mathbb E_q[-X]μ(X)=supq∈Q​Eq​[−X] for all XXX. The conditional value-at-risk under a probability vector ppp is CVaRα(X)=inf⁡ν∈R{ν+1αEp[(−ν−X)+]}\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X) = \inf_{\nu \in \mathbb R}\{\nu + \frac1\alpha \mathbb E_p[(-\nu - X)^+]\}CVaRα​(X)=infν∈R​{ν+α1​Ep​[(−ν−X)+]} for α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1].

Two random variables are comonotone if (X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0(X(\omega) - X(\omega'))(Y(\omega) - Y(\omega')) \ge 0(X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0 for all ω,ω′\omega, \omega'ω,ω′; μ\muμ is comonotonic if it is additive on comonotone pairs, and law invariant if it takes equal values on random variables with the same distribution. A distortion risk measure is a coherent, comonotonic, law-invariant risk measure. From Section 4.2 on, Ω\OmegaΩ carries the uniform distribution P{ωi}=1/N\mathbb P\{\omega_i\} = 1/NP{ωi​}=1/N.

The restricted simplex is Δ^N={q∈ΔN:q1≥⋯≥qN}\hat\Delta^N = \{q \in \Delta^N : q_1 \ge \cdots \ge q_N\}Δ^N={q∈ΔN:q1​≥⋯≥qN​}. For q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N put

μq(X)=−∑i=1Nqix(i),\mu_q(X) = -\sum_{i=1}^N q_i x_{(i)},μq​(X)=−i=1∑N​qi​x(i)​,

where x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)} \le \cdots \le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ are the increasing order statistics of XXX. The data are A={a1,…,aN}⊆Rn\mathcal A = \{a_1, \dots, a_N\} \subseteq \mathbb R^nA={a1​,…,aN​}⊆Rn, the uncertain vector a~\tilde aa~ takes the value aia_iai​ at ωi\omega_iωi​, and the qqq-permutohull of A\mathcal AA is

Πq(A)=conv⁡{∑i=1Nqσ(i)ai:σ∈SN}.\Pi_q(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\Big\{\sum_{i=1}^N q_{\sigma(i)} a_i : \sigma \in S_N\Big\}.Πq​(A)=conv{i=1∑N​qσ(i)​ai​:σ∈SN​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.3

Under the uniform distribution, for every distortion risk measure μ\muμ there is q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N with μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​, and for this qqq, all data and every bbb,

{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈Πq(A)}={x:∃y1,y2∈RN, e′y1+e′y2≥b, y1,i+y2,j≤qi aj′x ∀i,j}.\{x : \mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0\} = \{x : a'x \ge b\ \forall a \in \Pi_q(\mathcal A)\} = \{x : \exists y_1, y_2 \in \mathbb R^N,\ e'y_1 + e'y_2 \ge b,\ y_{1,i} + y_{2,j} \le q_i\, a_j'x\ \forall i, j\}.{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈Πq​(A)}={x:∃y1​,y2​∈RN, e′y1​+e′y2​≥b, y1,i​+y2,j​≤qi​aj′​x ∀i,j}.

The vector qqq depends on μ\muμ only; the data are quantified after it.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1. μ\muμ is coherent if and only if some family Q⊆ΔN\mathcal Q \subseteq \Delta^NQ⊆ΔN generates it.
  2. Theorem 3.1. For coherent μ\muμ generated by Q\mathcal QQ, {x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈conv⁡{Aq:q∈Q}}\{x : \mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0\} = \{x : a'x \ge b\ \forall a \in \operatorname{conv}\{Aq : q \in \mathcal Q\}\}{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈conv{Aq:q∈Q}}; conversely every nonempty U⊆conv⁡(A)\mathcal U \subseteq \operatorname{conv}(\mathcal A)U⊆conv(A) arises from the coherent measure generated by {q∈ΔN:Aq∈U}\{q \in \Delta^N : Aq \in \mathcal U\}{q∈ΔN:Aq∈U}.
  3. Generation of (4). μq\mu_qμq​ is generated by the permuted vectors q∘σq \circ \sigmaq∘σ, σ∈SN\sigma \in S_Nσ∈SN​.
  4. Theorem 4.1 (Schmeidler). A coherent μ\muμ is comonotonic if and only if μ(X)=∫(−X) dg\mu(X) = \int (-X)\,dgμ(X)=∫(−X)dg (Choquet integral) for a monotone, normalized, submodular g:2Ω→[0,1]g : 2^\Omega \to [0,1]g:2Ω→[0,1].
  5. Second differences (proof of Lemma 4.1). A submodular ggg depending only on ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ has nonincreasing increments along ∅⊂{ω1}⊂{ω1,ω2}⊂⋯\emptyset \subset \{\omega_1\} \subset \{\omega_1, \omega_2\} \subset \cdots∅⊂{ω1​}⊂{ω1​,ω2​}⊂⋯.
  6. Lemma 4.1. A risk measure is a distortion risk measure if and only if μ(X)=∫(0,1]CVaRα(X) ν(dα)\mu(X) = \int_{(0,1]} \mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X)\,\nu(d\alpha)μ(X)=∫(0,1]​CVaRα​(X)ν(dα) for a probability measure ν\nuν.
  7. The CVaR display (proof of Theorem 4.2). CVaRα(X)=sup⁡{Eq[−X]:q∈ΔN, qi≤1/(Nα)}=μqα(X)\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X) = \sup\{\mathbb E_q[-X] : q \in \Delta^N,\ q_i \le 1/(N\alpha)\} = \mu_{q^\alpha}(X)CVaRα​(X)=sup{Eq​[−X]:q∈ΔN, qi​≤1/(Nα)}=μqα​(X) with qα∈Δ^Nq^\alpha \in \hat\Delta^Nqα∈Δ^N.
  8. Theorem 4.2. A risk measure is a distortion risk measure if and only if μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ for some q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N; every such qqq is a convex combination of the generators q^j\hat q^jq^​j of CVaRj/N\mathrm{CVaR}_{j/N}CVaRj/N​.
  9. Assignment duality (proof of Theorem 4.3). a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b on Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) if and only if the linear system in (y1,y2)(y_1, y_2)(y1​,y2​) above is feasible.

A companion item states Corollary 4.3: Π∑jλjq^j(A)=conv⁡{∑jλj1j∑i≤jaσj(i):σj∈SN}\Pi_{\sum_j \lambda_j \hat q^j}(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\{\sum_j \lambda_j \frac1j \sum_{i \le j} a_{\sigma_j(i)} : \sigma_j \in S_N\}Π∑j​λj​q^​j​(A)=conv{∑j​λj​j1​∑i≤j​aσj​(i)​:σj​∈SN​}, and the class equality it yields: the uncertainty sets Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) of all distortion risk measures μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ are exactly the polytopes Uλ(A)\mathcal U_\lambda(\mathcal A)Uλ​(A), λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0, ∑jλj=1\sum_j \lambda_j = 1∑j​λj​=1.

Significance

The goal theorem identifies the uncertainty set implied by any distortion risk measure: it is a permutohull of the data, a polytope with up to N!N!N! vertices that is nevertheless representable with 2N2N2N extra variables and N2N^2N2 linear constraints. Combined with Theorem 4.2, the uncertainty sets of distortion measures are exactly the mixtures of the sets of jjj-point averages of the data (Corollary 4.3), with CVaRj/N\mathrm{CVaR}_{j/N}CVaRj/N​ as the generators. The later sections of the paper build on this: centrally symmetric permutohulls (Section 4.4) and the construction of a distortion risk measure from a given polyhedral uncertainty set (Section 4.5) are the subjects of the two companion missions.

The results are proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known. The formalization adds checked statements of the finite-space representation theory of coherent and distortion risk measures, which the paper obtains partly by citing general results, and records the corrections the printed statements need.

Difficulty

The two equalities of the goal have unequal weight. The second is a statement about one polytope with up to N!N!N! vertices and a linear system of size O(N2)O(N^2)O(N2); it is finite-dimensional linear programming. The first requires the complete characterization of distortion risk measures on a finite uniform space, and that is where the obvious approach fails. The known representation of law-invariant comonotonic coherent measures as mixtures of CVaR (Kusuoka 2001) is proved for atomless spaces and does not transfer to a discrete Ω\OmegaΩ. The uniform distribution is essential, not a convenience: Remark 4.2 of the paper gives a two-point space with probabilities 1/3,2/31/3, 2/31/3,2/3 and a monotone, normalized, submodular set function depending only on probability whose induced distortion is not concave, so the conclusion of Theorem 4.2 fails there.

Formalization scope

  • Ω\OmegaΩ is Fin N with N≥1N \ge 1N≥1; random variables are Fin N → ℝ; indices are 0-based throughout, so qhat j is the paper's q^j+1\hat q^{j+1}q^​j+1 and q1≥⋯≥qNq_1 \ge \cdots \ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​ is Antitone q. Order statistics are X ∘ Tuple.sort X.
  • Probability measures on Ω\OmegaΩ are probability vectors in stdSimplex ℝ (Fin N). Generation (1) is an IsLUB over an arbitrary set of probability vectors, not a maximum over a finite family (that version is false).
  • Sign of the risk constraint. Display (2) and Theorem 4.3 print μ(a~′x−b)≥0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \ge 0μ(a~′x−b)≥0. The paper introduces the constraint as μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0 (p. 1486) and the proof of Theorem 3.1 computes μ(a~′x−b)=−inf⁡a∈Ua′x+b\mu(\tilde a'x - b) = -\inf_{a \in \mathcal U} a'x + bμ(a~′x−b)=−infa∈U​a′x+b; all statements use ≤0\le 0≤0.
  • Standing assumptions. Theorems 2.1 and 3.1 assume a probability vector ppp with pi>0p_i > 0pi​>0 (full support makes Q≪P\mathbb Q \ll \mathbb PQ≪P vacuous; with a null atom Theorem 2.1 fails for functions on Ω\OmegaΩ). From Lemma 4.1 on the distribution is uniform (Assumption 4.1). Theorem 3.1's converse adds U≠∅\mathcal U \neq \emptysetU=∅.
  • CVaR is a real infimum, used only for α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1], where the objective is bounded below by E[−X]\mathbb E[-X]E[−X]. In Lemma 4.1 the mixing measure ν\nuν is a probability measure on (0,1](0,1](0,1]; the page's ∫01\int_0^1∫01​ is read over (0,1](0,1](0,1]. The CVaR display uses the corrected coefficient (Nα−⌊Nα⌋)/(Nα)(N\alpha - \lfloor N\alpha \rfloor)/(N\alpha)(Nα−⌊Nα⌋)/(Nα) in place of the printed /⌊Nα⌋/\lfloor N\alpha \rfloor/⌊Nα⌋. The assignment-duality milestone is stated for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN.
  • The goal must assert the representation μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ together with the set equalities: a statement "there is some qqq for which the sets coincide" would let qqq depend on the data and is not Theorem 4.3. The goal does not assume μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​, which is Theorem 4.2's conclusion.
  • Needed infrastructure: Birkhoff's theorem (in Mathlib), LP duality, the rearrangement inequality, Choquet integrals of step functions. Lemmas about μq\mu_qμq​ and order statistics are reusable beyond this mission; proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, Constructing uncertainty sets for robust linear optimization, Operations Research 57(6):1483–1495, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0646
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber, D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9(3):203–228, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
  • D. Schmeidler, Integral representation without additivity, Proceedings of the AMS 97(2):255–261, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-1986-0835875-8
  • R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk, Journal of Risk 2(3):21–41, 2000. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • S. Kusuoka, On law invariant coherent risk measures, Advances in Mathematical Economics 3:83–95, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-67891-5_4
  • H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time, 2nd ed., de Gruyter, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110212075
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Robust Solutions of Uncertain Linear Programs II: With Ellipsoidal Uncertainty the Robust Counterpart Is Equivalent to a Conic Quadratic ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

The data of a linear program are often not known exactly: they are measured or estimated, or they are forecasts. The robust counterpart approach, going back to Soyster (1973), asks for a solution that is feasible for every data matrix in a prescribed uncertainty set and is best among such solutions. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski's 1999 paper [1] showed that the method stays computationally tractable for a broad class of uncertainty sets, the ellipsoidal uncertainties: the robust counterpart of an uncertain LP is then a conic quadratic program (CQP), solvable by interior point methods at roughly the cost of an LP of similar size. This result is the basis of robust linear optimization as it is used today [2], [3]. It is also the reason ellipsoidal sets are the default choice in robust portfolio selection (§4 of the paper) and in many later robust models.

Timeline. Soyster (1973) treated column-wise box uncertainty, for which the counterpart is again an LP [4]. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski (1998) developed the general theory of robust convex optimization [5]. The present paper (1999) proved the ellipsoidal-to-CQP reduction for LPs (Theorem 3.1). Its proof relies on the conic duality theory of Nesterov and Nemirovski (1994) [6].

Setting

An uncertain linear program in the homogeneous form (6) is

min⁡{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},\min\{c^Tx \mid Ax \ge 0,\ f^Tx = 1\},min{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},

where c,f∈Rnc, f \in \mathbb R^nc,f∈Rn are fixed and the matrix A∈Rm×nA \in \mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n lies in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. A point xxx is robust feasible if fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1 and Ax≥0Ax \ge 0Ax≥0 for every A∈UA \in \mathcal UA∈U. The robust counterpart (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) minimizes cTxc^TxcTx over the robust feasible set

GU={x∣Ax≥0 ∀A∈U, fTx=1}.G_{\mathcal U} = \{x \mid Ax \ge 0\ \forall A \in \mathcal U,\ f^Tx = 1\}.GU​={x∣Ax≥0 ∀A∈U, fTx=1}.

An ellipsoid in Rm×n\mathbb R^{m\times n}Rm×n (display (14)) is a set

U(Π,Q)={Π(u)∣∥Qu∥≤1},U(\Pi, Q) = \{\Pi(u) \mid \|Qu\| \le 1\},U(Π,Q)={Π(u)∣∥Qu∥≤1},

where Π(u)=P0+∑j=1LujPj\Pi(u) = P^0 + \sum_{j=1}^L u_jP^jΠ(u)=P0+∑j=1L​uj​Pj is affine in u∈RLu \in \mathbb R^Lu∈RL, QQQ is an M×LM\times LM×L matrix, and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm. A singular QQQ gives an ellipsoidal cylinder, which may be unbounded. An ellipsoidal uncertainty is a set

U=⋂ℓ=0kU(Πℓ,Qℓ)\mathcal U = \bigcap_{\ell=0}^k U(\Pi_\ell, Q_\ell)U=ℓ=0⋂k​U(Πℓ​,Qℓ​)

(condition A) that is bounded (condition B) and contains a matrix AAA with A=Πℓ(uℓ)A = \Pi_\ell(u^\ell)A=Πℓ​(uℓ) and ∥Qℓuℓ∥<1\|Q_\ell u^\ell\| < 1∥Qℓ​uℓ∥<1 for every ℓ\ellℓ (condition C, a Slater condition).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

For every x∈Rnx \in \mathbb R^nx∈Rn,

x∈GU  ⟺  fTx=1  and  ∀i≤m  ∃ λ(i),μ(i),ν(i): (x,λ(i),μ(i),ν(i)) satisfies (Ci).x \in G_{\mathcal U} \iff f^Tx = 1 \ \text{ and }\ \forall i \le m\ \ \exists\, \lambda^{(i)}, \mu^{(i)}, \nu^{(i)} :\ (x, \lambda^{(i)}, \mu^{(i)}, \nu^{(i)}) \text{ satisfies } (\mathcal C_i).x∈GU​⟺fTx=1  and  ∀i≤m  ∃λ(i),μ(i),ν(i): (x,λ(i),μ(i),ν(i)) satisfies (Ci​).

Here (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) is an explicit system: linear equations and one linear inequality in (x,λ,μ,ν)(x, \lambda, \mu, \nu)(x,λ,μ,ν), together with the second-order cone constraints ∥μℓ(i)∥≤νℓ(i)\|\mu^{(i)}_\ell\| \le \nu^{(i)}_\ell∥μℓ(i)​∥≤νℓ(i)​. Its coefficients are the matrices PℓjP^j_\ellPℓj​ and QℓQ_\ellQℓ​. The robust feasible set is therefore the projection of the feasible set of the conic quadratic program (CQP), which minimizes cTxc^TxcTx subject to (C1),…,(Cm)(\mathcal C_1), \dots, (\mathcal C_m)(C1​),…,(Cm​) and fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1.

Milestones, in the order of the Appendix's proof

  1. U\mathcal UU equals the image of the feasible set of the problem (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) under u↦Π0(u0)u \mapsto \Pi_0(u^0)u↦Π0​(u0) (p. 15).
  2. Claim (I): with fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1, xxx is robust feasible iff every (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) has nonnegative optimal value (p. 15).
  3. Claim (II): conic quadratic duality. A strictly feasible primal that is bounded below has a solvable dual with equal optimal value (p. 15).
  4. Conditions B and C make every (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) strictly feasible and bounded below (p. 16).

Companion results

The CQP forms (16) and (17) of the simplest cases (a single ellipsoid; constraint-wise ellipsoids), Remark 3.1 (bounded polytopes are ellipsoidal uncertainties), and the robust portfolio counterpart (22).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.1 turns a semi-infinite constraint system (one constraint for every A∈UA \in \mathcal UA∈U) into finitely many conic quadratic constraints whose size is polynomial in the data. Robust LPs with ellipsoidal uncertainty, which by Remark 3.1 include polytopic uncertainty, can therefore be solved by standard conic solvers. Later robust optimization results, such as budgeted uncertainty, affinely adjustable policies and distributionally robust LPs, refine this pattern.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and its proof is complete, but no machine-checked proof exists. A formal proof needs a conic quadratic strong duality theorem with dual attainment (claim (II)), which Mathlib does not have in this form. That duality theorem can be reused well beyond this mission. The companion results (16), (17) and (22) are self-contained computations of a minimum of a linear function over a Euclidean ball.

Difficulty

The "if" direction is weak duality: a solution of (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) certifies that the iii-th constraint holds for all of U\mathcal UU. The content is the "only if" direction. It requires dual attainment, not merely equality of optimal values, because a solution of (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) must exist. Dual attainment fails without a constraint qualification. Condition C must hold strictly for every ellipsoid, including ℓ=0\ell = 0ℓ=0, and the ellipsoids may be cylinders, so the variables uℓu^\elluℓ can range over unbounded sets even though U\mathcal UU is bounded. Projecting the problem onto a single parameter space is not available in general, because the maps Πℓ\Pi_\ellΠℓ​ need not be injective.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. The indices ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k are Fin (k + 1), and the kkk equality multipliers λℓ\lambda_\ellλℓ​, ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1, are indexed by Fin k. Every norm is Euclidean, written out as euclidNorm v = √(∑ v_j²), because Mathlib's norm on Fin M → ℝ is the sup norm, under which ellipsoids would become boxes. Condition B is a uniform bound on all matrix entries, and condition C is required for every ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k. The page's words say "ℓ=1,…,k\ell = 1, \dots, kℓ=1,…,k", but its display and the proof use every ℓ\ellℓ. Injectivity of Πℓ\Pi_\ellΠℓ​ is not assumed, and neither is §2.1's standing assumption that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed. An ellipsoidal uncertainty is convex automatically, and closedness is not used, so both omissions generalize the statement. Three printed slips are corrected and disclosed: the sum in the equality constraint of (CQPd_dd​) runs over ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k; (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) has φ(i)[x]\varphi^{(i)}[x]φ(i)[x] where the page prints f(i)[x]f^{(i)}[x]f(i)[x]; and Remark 3.1 has the factor 2/(ri−si)2/(r_i - s_i)2/(ri​−si​) where the page prints (ri−si)/2(r_i - s_i)/2(ri​−si​)/2.

The goal is not the contentless statement "some conic quadratic program has GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ as a projection", which holds for every closed convex set. It names the system (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) built from the data PℓjP^j_\ellPℓj​, QℓQ_\ellQℓ​. The goal also does not mention optimal values, (CQPp_pp​) or strict feasibility; those are milestones.

Contributions are welcome on the conic duality theorem (II) as a standalone result, on the finite-dimensional facts that minimize a linear function over a Euclidean ball (used in (16), (17) and (22)), and on the goal itself.

Selected references

  1. A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  2. A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  3. D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, C. Caramanis, Theory and applications of robust optimization, SIAM Review 53(3):464–501, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1137/080734510
  4. A. L. Soyster, Convex programming with set-inclusive constraints and applications to inexact linear programming, Operations Research 21(5):1154–1157, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1154
  5. A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  6. Yu. Nesterov, A. Nemirovski, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM Studies in Applied Mathematics 13, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970791
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Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 3: The Largest Centrally Symmetric Distortion Inner Approximation of a Polytope Solves a Linear ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust linear constraint a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b for all a∈Ua \in \mathcal Ua∈U protects a decision xxx against every realization of the data aaa in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. Robust optimization took this form in the work of Ben-Tal and Nemirovski (Math. Oper. Res. 1998; Oper. Res. Lett. 1999), where U\mathcal UU is chosen by the modeller. Bertsimas and Brown (Oper. Res. 2009) tie the choice of U\mathcal UU to the decision maker's attitude towards risk: on a finite sample A={a1,…,aN}\mathcal A = \{a_1,\dots,a_N\}A={a1​,…,aN​}, a coherent risk measure constraint μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0 is equivalent to a robust constraint over a convex set built from A\mathcal AA, and for the distortion risk measures (the law-invariant, comonotone coherent measures, which include CVaR) that set is a polytope of a special kind, a permutohull.

An uncertainty set in practice is often an arbitrary polyhedron, given by the modeller or by previous analysis. Section 4.5 of the paper asks which distortion risk measure best approximates such a polyhedron from inside: the largest permutohull of a given shape contained in it. A positive answer quantifies how conservative a given polyhedral uncertainty set is relative to a distortion risk measure, and gives the risk measure that is closest to it. This mission is the third of a series of three on the paper; the first establishes the permutohull representation of distortion risk constraints, the second the generators of the centrally symmetric distortion measures.

Setting

Fix N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 and data a1,…,aN∈Rna_1,\dots,a_N \in \mathbb R^na1​,…,aN​∈Rn, the columns of a matrix AAA. Let eN∈RNe_N \in \mathbb R^NeN​∈RN have 1/N1/N1/N at each entry, so the sample mean is a^=AeN\hat a = Ae_Na^=AeN​.

  • The restricted simplex Δ^N\hat\Delta^NΔ^N is the set of probability vectors q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN with q1≥⋯≥qNq_1 \ge \dots \ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​. Under the uniform probability on NNN points, the distortion risk measures are exactly the maps μq(X)=−∑iqix(i)\mu_q(X) = -\sum_i q_i x_{(i)}μq​(X)=−∑i​qi​x(i)​, q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N, with x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)} \le \dots \le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ the ordered values of XXX (Theorem 4.2 of the paper).
  • For q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN, the qqq-permutohull is Πq(A)=conv⁡{∑iqσ(i)ai:σ∈SN}\Pi_q(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\{\sum_i q_{\sigma(i)} a_i : \sigma \in S_N\}Πq​(A)=conv{∑i​qσ(i)​ai​:σ∈SN​}. The robust constraint over Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) is the risk constraint for μq\mu_qμq​.
  • The symmetric restricted simplex Δ^symN\hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}Δ^symN​ is the set of q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N with q=2eN−qσq = 2e_N - q_\sigmaq=2eN​−qσ​ for some permutation σ\sigmaσ, where (qσ)i=qσ(i)(q_\sigma)_i = q_{\sigma(i)}(qσ​)i​=qσ(i)​. For these qqq the permutohull is centrally symmetric about a^\hat aa^.
  • With π~q(A)=Πq(A)−a^\tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A) = \Pi_q(\mathcal A) - \hat aπ~q​(A)=Πq​(A)−a^, the Minkowski functional
∥w∥q,A=inf⁡{α>0:w/α∈π~q(A)}\|w\|_{q,\mathcal A} = \inf\{\alpha > 0 : w/\alpha \in \tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A)\}∥w∥q,A​=inf{α>0:w/α∈π~q​(A)}

measures w=a−a^w = a - \hat aw=a−a^ against the shifted permutohull (12).

  • The polyhedron is U={a∈Rn:uk′a≥vk, k=1,…,m}\mathcal U = \{a \in \mathbb R^n : u_k'a \ge v_k,\ k = 1,\dots,m\}U={a∈Rn:uk′​a≥vk​, k=1,…,m} (14), with a^∈U\hat a \in \mathcal Ua^∈U.

The family of candidate inner approximations is obtained by mixing a fixed q^∈Δ^symN\hat q \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q^​∈Δ^symN​ with the uniform generator: q=λq^+(1−λ)eNq = \lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_Nq=λq^​+(1−λ)eN​, λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5

Let λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ be the optimal value of the linear program

max⁡ λs.t.q=λq^+(1−λ)e/N,e′(sk+tk)≥vk ∀k,sk,i+tk,j≤(uk′aj) qi ∀i,j,k,(15)\max\ \lambda\quad\text{s.t.}\quad q = \lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e/N,\quad e'(s_k + t_k) \ge v_k\ \forall k,\quad s_{k,i} + t_{k,j} \le (u_k'a_j)\,q_i\ \forall i,j,k, \tag{15}max λs.t.q=λq^​+(1−λ)e/N,e′(sk​+tk​)≥vk​ ∀k,sk,i​+tk,j​≤(uk′​aj​)qi​ ∀i,j,k,(15)

in sk,tk,q∈RNs_k, t_k, q \in \mathbb R^Nsk​,tk​,q∈RN and λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R, and q∗=λ∗q^+(1−λ∗)eNq^* = \lambda^*\hat q + (1-\lambda^*)e_Nq∗=λ∗q^​+(1−λ∗)eN​. Then

Πq∗(A)⊆U,Πλq^+(1−λ)eN(A)⊆U  ⟹  Πλq^+(1−λ)eN(A)⊆Πq∗(A),\Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal U,\qquad \Pi_{\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal U \implies \Pi_{\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A),Πq∗​(A)⊆U,Πλq^​+(1−λ)eN​​(A)⊆U⟹Πλq^​+(1−λ)eN​​(A)⊆Πq∗​(A),

and, when q^≠eN\hat q \ne e_Nq^​=eN​, q∗∈Δ^Nq^* \in \hat\Delta^Nq∗∈Δ^N if and only if

λ∗≤11−Nq^min⁡.(16)\lambda^* \le \frac{1}{1 - N\hat q_{\min}}. \tag{16}λ∗≤1−Nq^​min​1​.(16)

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4.2: for q∈Δ^symNq \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q∈Δ^symN​ with Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) of nonempty interior, ∥⋅∥q,A\|\cdot\|_{q,\mathcal A}∥⋅∥q,A​ is a norm.
  2. Scaling (proof of Lemma 4.2): Πλq+(1−λ)eN(A)=a^+λ π~q(A)\Pi_{\lambda q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) = \hat a + \lambda\,\tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A)Πλq+(1−λ)eN​​(A)=a^+λπ~q​(A) for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN, λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R.
  3. Lemma 4.2: ∥a−a^∥λq+(1−λ)eN,A=1∣λ∣∥a−a^∥q,A\|a - \hat a\|_{\lambda q + (1-\lambda)e_N,\mathcal A} = \frac{1}{|\lambda|}\|a - \hat a\|_{q,\mathcal A}∥a−a^∥λq+(1−λ)eN​,A​=∣λ∣1​∥a−a^∥q,A​ for q∈Δ^symNq \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q∈Δ^symN​, λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0.
  4. Containment as linear constraints (proof of Theorem 4.5): Πq(A)⊆U\Pi_q(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal UΠq​(A)⊆U iff vectors sk,tks_k, t_ksk​,tk​ satisfying the constraints of (15) exist, for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN.
  5. Nonnegativity (proof of Theorem 4.5): for λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and Nq^min⁡<1N\hat q_{\min} < 1Nq^​min​<1, λq^+(1−λ)eN∈Δ^N\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N \in \hat\Delta^Nλq^​+(1−λ)eN​∈Δ^N iff λ≤1/(1−Nq^min⁡)\lambda \le 1/(1 - N\hat q_{\min})λ≤1/(1−Nq^​min​).

Significance

The theorem reduces a geometric question — the largest member of a one-parameter family of centrally symmetric polytopes, each with N!N!N! potential vertices, that fits inside an arbitrary polyhedron — to a linear program with O(mN)O(mN)O(mN) variables and O(mN2)O(mN^2)O(mN2) constraints. Its solution identifies a distortion risk measure μ=λ∗μq^+(1−λ∗)E[−X]\mu = \lambda^*\mu_{\hat q} + (1-\lambda^*)\mathbb E[-X]μ=λ∗μq^​​+(1−λ∗)E[−X], which the paper reads as a mean–deviation measure in the style of a Sharpe ratio, and the bound (16) decides whether the optimal set is itself a distortion set or must be shrunk further.

The results are proved in the paper, with short proofs that pass over several points: the scaling identity is asserted, the duality step leaves the assignment-problem structure implicit, and the norm claim requires a nondegeneracy condition that the page does not state. No machine-checked proof of any of them is known. A formalization fixes the exact hypotheses (nonempty interior for the norm, λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0 in (13), q^≠eN\hat q \ne e_Nq^​=eN​ in (16)), and the containment equivalence for arbitrary real weight vectors qqq is a reusable fact about permutohulls and assignment duality.

Difficulty

The goal combines three ingredients of different nature. The containment equivalence needs that minimizing a linear function over the permutohull is a linear program over the Birkhoff polytope of doubly stochastic matrices, followed by linear programming duality for that program; neither the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem nor assignment duality is a one-line consequence of what is in Mathlib. The scaling identity is a statement about convex hulls under an affine map and holds for all real λ\lambdaλ, including the reflected case λ<0\lambda < 0λ<0; the maximality claim then needs the central symmetry of Πq^(A)\Pi_{\hat q}(\mathcal A)Πq^​​(A) about a^\hat aa^, which is a property of Δ^symN\hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}Δ^symN​ (Proposition 4.1 of the paper) and not of a general qqq. The tempting shortcut — comparing gauges directly — fails at λ=0\lambda = 0λ=0, where the permutohull is the single point a^\hat aa^ and the gauge is degenerate.

Formalization scope

Vectors in RN\mathbb R^NRN and Rn\mathbb R^nRn are Fin N → ℝ and Fin n → ℝ, with 000-based indices; aia_iai​ is a i, uk′au_k'auk′​a is a dot product. Δ^N\hat\Delta^NΔ^N uses Mathlib's stdSimplex and Antitone. The permutohull is convexHull of the range over Equiv.Perm (Fin N), defined for every real qqq because (15) evaluates it at mixtures with possibly negative entries. The Minkowski functional is Mathlib's gauge, which takes the value 000 (not +∞+\infty+∞) on points no positive multiple of the set reaches; this is why Proposition 4.2 assumes Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) has nonempty interior and why the goal states "largest" as set containment. q^min⁡\hat q_{\min}q^​min​ is min⁡iq^i\min_i \hat q_imini​q^​i​. The optimal value λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is a hypothesis (it is the greatest element of the feasible set of (15)), not a supremum defined by sSup.

Standing assumptions and disclosed additions: N≥1N \ge 1N≥1; the polyhedron (14) is not assumed bounded (a generalization); in (13) the right-hand norm is that of qqq, not q~\tilde qq~​ as printed, and λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0; in (16), Nq^min⁡<1N\hat q_{\min} < 1Nq^​min​<1; "corresponds to a distortion risk measure" is read, as the proof reads it, as q∗∈Δ^Nq^* \in \hat\Delta^Nq∗∈Δ^N. A formalization that assumes Πq∗(A)⊆U\Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal UΠq∗​(A)⊆U or the maximality of λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ trivializes the theorem: both are conclusions, and the linear program enters only through its constraints and its optimal value.

A complete development needs: convex hulls under affine maps; the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem (doubly stochastic matrices are convex combinations of permutation matrices); duality for the assignment linear program; gauge calculus for centrally symmetric convex bodies. The containment equivalence and the scaling identity are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and of the Birkhoff and assignment-duality infrastructure, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and D. B. Brown, Constructing uncertainty sets for robust linear optimization, Operations Research 57(6):1483–1495, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0646
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber and D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9(3):203–228, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
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Optimality of Affine Policies in Multistage Robust Optimization: In One-Dimensional Constrained Min-Max Control, Disturbance-Affine Policies with Affine Stage Costs Attain the Optimal ValueResearch Paper

Motivation

Multistage robust optimization chooses decisions over time while an adversary picks the uncertain data from a known set; every later decision may react to what has been observed. The exact problem is a nested min-max over functions of the past, and is intractable in general. The standard workaround, proposed by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (Math. Program. 2004), restricts every decision to an affine function of the observed disturbances. The restricted problem is a single convex (often linear) program, which is why disturbance-affine policies are used throughout robust control, inventory management and model predictive control. The price is suboptimality, and before this paper there was no nontrivial multistage problem in which that price was known to be zero.

Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (arXiv:0904.3986, 2009; Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 2010) proved that for one-dimensional linear dynamics with box constraints on controls and disturbances, linear control costs and convex state costs, disturbance-affine policies are exactly optimal. Their companion paper (Bertsimas & Goyal, Math. Program. 2012) shows how poorly affine policies can perform in other settings, so the one-dimensional result marks one side of the boundary between models where affine policies are exact and models where they are not.

Setting

Fix a horizon TTT and an initial state x1∈Rx_1\in\mathbb Rx1​∈R. For each stage k=1,…,Tk=1,\dots,Tk=1,…,T there are a per-unit control cost ck≥0c_k\ge0ck​≥0, control bounds Lk≤UkL_k\le U_kLk​≤Uk​, disturbance bounds w‾k≤w‾k\underline w_k\le\overline w_kw​k​≤wk​, and a state cost hk:R→Rh_k:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rhk​:R→R that is convex and coercive. The state evolves as

xk+1=xk+uk+wk,uk∈[Lk,Uk],wk∈Wk=[w‾k,w‾k].x_{k+1}=x_k+u_k+w_k,\qquad u_k\in[L_k,U_k],\qquad w_k\in\mathcal W_k=[\underline w_k,\overline w_k].xk+1​=xk​+uk​+wk​,uk​∈[Lk​,Uk​],wk​∈Wk​=[w​k​,wk​].

The controller chooses uku_kuk​ after seeing xkx_kxk​; the adversary then chooses wkw_kwk​. The min-max value JmMJ_{mM}JmM​ is the value of the nested problem min⁡u1[c1u1+max⁡w1[h1(x2)+min⁡u2[⋯ ]]]\min_{u_1}[c_1u_1+\max_{w_1}[h_1(x_2)+\min_{u_2}[\cdots]]]minu1​​[c1​u1​+maxw1​​[h1​(x2​)+minu2​​[⋯]]], computed by the Bellman recursion with JT+1∗≡0J^*_{T+1}\equiv0JT+1∗​≡0:

gk(y)=max⁡w∈Wk[hk(y+w)+Jk+1∗(y+w)],Jk∗(x)=min⁡Lk≤u≤Uk[cku+gk(x+u)],JmM=J1∗(x1).g_k(y)=\max_{w\in\mathcal W_k}\big[h_k(y+w)+J^*_{k+1}(y+w)\big],\qquad J^*_k(x)=\min_{L_k\le u\le U_k}\big[c_ku+g_k(x+u)\big],\qquad J_{mM}=J^*_1(x_1).gk​(y)=w∈Wk​max​[hk​(y+w)+Jk+1∗​(y+w)],Jk∗​(x)=Lk​≤u≤Uk​min​[ck​u+gk​(x+u)],JmM​=J1∗​(x1​).

An affine control policy and an affine running cost at stage kkk are

qk(w)=qk,0+∑t=1k−1qk,twt,zk(w)=zk,0+∑t=1kzk,twt,q_k(w)=q_{k,0}+\sum_{t=1}^{k-1}q_{k,t}w_t,\qquad z_k(w)=z_{k,0}+\sum_{t=1}^{k}z_{k,t}w_t,qk​(w)=qk,0​+t=1∑k−1​qk,t​wt​,zk​(w)=zk,0​+t=1∑k​zk,t​wt​,

so qkq_kqk​ sees the disturbances before stage kkk and zkz_kzk​ those up to stage kkk. Under these policies the state after stage kkk is x1+∑t≤k(qt(w)+wt)x_1+\sum_{t\le k}(q_t(w)+w_t)x1​+∑t≤k​(qt​(w)+wt​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There exist affine policies qkq_kqk​ and affine costs zkz_kzk​ such that, for every k=1,…,Tk=1,\dots,Tk=1,…,T,

Lk≤qk(w)≤Uk∀w∈W1×⋯×Wk−1,L_k\le q_k(w)\le U_k\quad\forall w\in\mathcal W_1\times\dots\times\mathcal W_{k-1},Lk​≤qk​(w)≤Uk​∀w∈W1​×⋯×Wk−1​, zk(w)≥hk(x1+∑t=1k(qt(w)+wt))∀w∈W1×⋯×Wk,z_k(w)\ge h_k\Big(x_1+\sum_{t=1}^k(q_t(w)+w_t)\Big)\quad\forall w\in\mathcal W_1\times\dots\times\mathcal W_k,zk​(w)≥hk​(x1​+t=1∑k​(qt​(w)+wt​))∀w∈W1​×⋯×Wk​, JmM=max⁡w1,…,wk[∑t=1k(ctqt(w)+zt(w))+Jk+1∗(x1+∑t=1k(qt(w)+wt))].J_{mM}=\max_{w_1,\dots,w_k}\Big[\sum_{t=1}^k\big(c_tq_t(w)+z_t(w)\big)+J^*_{k+1}\Big(x_1+\sum_{t=1}^k(q_t(w)+w_t)\Big)\Big].JmM​=w1​,…,wk​max​[t=1∑k​(ct​qt​(w)+zt​(w))+Jk+1∗​(x1​+t=1∑k​(qt​(w)+wt​))].

At k=Tk=Tk=T this says that affine policies are robustly feasible and attain the min-max value.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1 (with (8)–(9), P2): Jk∗J^*_kJk∗​ and gkg_kgk​ are convex, and the optimal control is the clamp max⁡(Lk,min⁡(Uk,y∗−x))\max(L_k,\min(U_k,y^*-x))max(Lk​,min(Uk​,y∗−x)) for a minimizer y∗y^*y∗ of cky+gk(y)c_ky+g_k(y)ck​y+gk​(y).
  2. P3: the clamp is non-increasing and 1-Lipschitz.
  3. Lemma 4.1: the maximum of θ1+f(θ2)\theta_1+f(\theta_2)θ1​+f(θ2​), fff convex, over a planar zonogon Θ=π([0,1]k)\Theta=\pi([0,1]^k)Θ=π([0,1]k) is attained at one of the k+1k+1k+1 vertices on its right side.
  4. Corollary 4.1: the maximum of θ1+f(θ2)\theta_1+f(\theta_2)θ1​+f(θ2​) is unchanged when a polygon is replaced by its convex hull, its vertex set, its right side, or the zonogon hull of its vertices.
  5. Lemma 4.2: after the optimal control is applied, the worst case is reached on the right side of conv⁡{v~0,…,v~k}\operatorname{conv}\{\tilde v_0,\dots,\tilde v_k\}conv{v~0​,…,v~k​}.
  6. Lemma 4.4: the matching-and-alignment system (37) defining the affine controller is feasible, and its solutions satisfy −bi≤qi≤0-b_i\le q_i\le0−bi​≤qi​≤0 and L≤q(w)≤UL\le q(w)\le UL≤q(w)≤U.
  7. Lemma 4.8 and Lemma 4.9: the affine cost defined by system (51)–(53) dominates the convex cost, first at the hypercube vertices, then on the whole hypercube.

Significance

The theorem is one of the few exact optimality results for affine policies in multistage robust optimization. Combined with linear programming duality it has a computational corollary: when the hkh_khk​ are piecewise affine, an optimal policy for the full min-max problem is obtained from a single linear program (the affinely adjustable robust counterpart, p. 5), instead of a dynamic program over a continuous state. The construction also shows what is special about one dimension: the relevant uncertainty enters only through a planar zonogon, whose right side has at most k+1k+1k+1 vertices, matching the k+1k+1k+1 coefficients of an affine policy.

The result is proved in the literature, not formalized; no machine-checked proof of it, or of the zonogon lemmas it uses, is known. The formalization adds a checked proof of the main theorem and of the planar convexity facts (Lemma 4.1, Corollary 4.1) that are reusable for other zonotope arguments. It also closes the gaps the preprint leaves to the reader: Assumption 2 is removed by an infinitesimal perturbation argument, footnote 4 assumes a unique minimizer of cky+gk(y)c_ky+g_k(y)ck​y+gk​(y), and Lemma 4.3 is proved in one sub-case only.

Difficulty

Dynamic programming gives the optimal control as a function of the current state, uk∗(xk)u^*_k(x_k)uk∗​(xk​), which is piecewise affine in xkx_kxk​ with up to three pieces. Since xkx_kxk​ is affine in past disturbances, the obvious idea is to substitute; but the composition is piecewise affine, not affine, in the disturbances, and no single affine function reproduces it. An affine policy is necessarily suboptimal at some disturbance sequences. The theorem asserts only that it is never suboptimal at the worst case, and that the excess cost it causes can be absorbed into an affine cost zkz_kzk​ that still dominates hkh_khk​. Establishing this requires controlling where a convex objective is maximized over a zonogon, and showing that the affine controller and the affine cost can be chosen to reproduce exactly the right-side vertices that matter, at every stage, while staying feasible. A naive matching of all 2k2^k2k vertices of the disturbance box is overdetermined.

Formalization scope

Stages are indexed by Fin T (0-based). The model is the reduced form (DP) of §2, with dynamics coefficients equal to 1; the paper notes that this is without loss of generality. The standing hypotheses are those of Problem 1.1 (ck≥0c_k\ge0ck​≥0, hkh_khk​ convex and coercive) plus two disclosed additions, Lk≤UkL_k\le U_kLk​≤Uk​ and w‾k≤w‾k\underline w_k\le\overline w_kw​k​≤wk​: the page writes both as intervals but does not say they are nonempty. Jk∗J^*_kJk∗​ is defined by the Bellman recursion with sSup/sInf over images of nonempty compact intervals of continuous functions, so the values are attained maxima and minima. The max in (14) is stated with IsGreatest, which asserts attainment.

The goal carries none of the proof's normalizations (Assumptions 1–3 of p. 10, the unique minimizer of footnote 4). The milestones of §4 are stated in the paper's simplified notation: the unit hypercube, generators ordered as in (32) (cross-multiplied), the clamp form of the optimal control law (the printed (8) has misprinted thresholds), and, where the paper divides by bib_ibi​, the hypothesis bi>0b_i>0bi​>0. Lemma 4.4 takes Lemma 4.3's conclusions as hypotheses; Lemmas 4.8–4.9 take system (51)–(53) (with two misprints of (53) corrected) as hypotheses instead of "computed by Algorithm 2". Every fraction in a system is cross-multiplied.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. (14) uses a maximum over a nonempty box of a continuous function, with the true Jk+1∗J^*_{k+1}Jk+1∗​. The policies read only past disturbances (sums over t<kt<kt<k, resp. t≤kt\le kt≤k). JmMJ_{mM}JmM​ is the Bellman value over all state-feedback controls, not the value of the affine problem.

The development needs convexity of value functions under partial minimization and maximization, extreme points of planar polygons, and maxima of convex functions over polytopes. Contributions of independent planar-geometry lemmas are welcome, as are proofs of Lemma 4.3 (not stated here) and of the remaining construction lemmas 4.5–4.7.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of Affine Policies in Multi-stage Robust Optimization, arXiv:0904.3986v1, 2009; Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2):363–394, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0904.3986, https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99(2):351–376, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134(2):491–531, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • G. M. Ziegler, Lectures on Polytopes, Springer GTM 152, 1995 (Chapter 7, zonotopes). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8431-1
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization I: An Uncertainty Set Whose Support Function Dominates Value at Risk Implies a Probabilistic Guarantee for Every Concave ConstraintResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization replaces an uncertain constraint f(u~,x)≤0f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x)\le 0f(u~,x)≤0, whose parameter u~∈Rd\tilde{\mathbf u}\in\mathbb R^du~∈Rd is random, by the requirement that the constraint hold for every u\mathbf uu in a chosen uncertainty set U\mathcal UU:

f(u,x)≤0∀ u∈U.f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)\le 0\qquad\forall\,\mathbf u\in\mathcal U .f(u,x)≤0∀u∈U.

The resulting problem is deterministic and, for many shapes of U\mathcal UU, tractable (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui and Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The modelling question it leaves open is how to choose U\mathcal UU. A set that is too large makes every solution conservative; a set that is too small gives no protection. The practitioner's real requirement is usually probabilistic: a robust feasible x\mathbf xx should violate the uncertain constraint with probability at most ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167, 2018) build uncertainty sets directly from data so that this requirement holds with high confidence. Their whole construction rests on one characterization, Theorem 1 of the paper, of when a set carries such a guarantee. This mission formalizes that characterization and the two results (Theorems 2 and 3) that turn it into a data-driven recipe.

Earlier work used the "if" direction of the characterization for bi-affine constraints when designing sets for specific distributional assumptions (Ben-Tal et al., 2009; Chen, Sim and Sun, Oper. Res. 55, 2007). The extension to every constraint concave in u\mathbf uu is due to Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus.

Setting

Let P\mathbb PP be a probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, the law of u~\tilde{\mathbf u}u~, and fix a level 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1. Throughout, f(u,x)f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)f(u,x) is concave in u\mathbf uu for every value of the decision variable x∈Rk\mathbf x\in\mathbb R^kx∈Rk.

The support function of a set U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd is

δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈UvTu,v∈Rd.\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{\mathbf u\in\mathcal U}\mathbf v^T\mathbf u,\qquad\mathbf v\in\mathbb R^d .δ∗(v∣U)=u∈Usup​vTu,v∈Rd.

The Value at Risk of the linear loss u~Tv\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf vu~Tv at level ϵ\epsilonϵ is

VaRϵP(v)=inf⁡{t: P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ}.\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)=\inf\{t:\ \mathbb P(\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf v\le t)\ge 1-\epsilon\}.VaRϵP​(v)=inf{t: P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ}.

A set U\mathcal UU implies a probabilistic guarantee at level ϵ\epsilonϵ for P\mathbb PP (property (P2) of the paper) if for every kkk, every f(u,x)f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)f(u,x) concave in u\mathbf uu for each x∈Rk\mathbf x\in\mathbb R^kx∈Rk, and every x∗∈Rk\mathbf x^*\in\mathbb R^kx∗∈Rk,

f(u,x∗)≤0  ∀u∈U⟹P(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ.(2)f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x^*)\le0\ \ \forall\mathbf u\in\mathcal U\quad\Longrightarrow\quad\mathbb P\big(f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)\le0\big)\ge1-\epsilon. \tag{2}f(u,x∗)≤0  ∀u∈U⟹P(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ.(2)

A function is bi-affine if it has the form f(u,x)=uTFx+fuTu+fxTx+f0f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)=\mathbf u^TF\mathbf x+\mathbf f_u^T\mathbf u+\mathbf f_x^T\mathbf x+f_0f(u,x)=uTFx+fuT​u+fxT​x+f0​.

In the data-driven setting, P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ is unknown and a sample S=(u^1,…,u^N)\mathcal S=(\hat{\mathbf u}^1,\dots,\hat{\mathbf u}^N)S=(u^1,…,u^N) is drawn i.i.d. from it. The paper's schema fixes 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, takes the confidence region P(S)\mathcal P(\mathcal S)P(S) of a hypothesis test at level α\alphaα, and builds a closed convex set U(S)\mathcal U(\mathcal S)U(S) whose support function bounds VaRϵP(v)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)VaRϵP​(v) for every P∈P(S)\mathbb P\in\mathcal P(\mathcal S)P∈P(S) and every v\mathbf vv.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

(a) If U\mathcal UU is nonempty, convex and compact and

δ∗(v∣U)≥VaRϵP(v)∀ v∈Rd,\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\qquad\forall\,\mathbf v\in\mathbb R^d,δ∗(v∣U)≥VaRϵP​(v)∀v∈Rd,

then U\mathcal UU implies a probabilistic guarantee at level ϵ\epsilonϵ for P\mathbb PP.

(b) If U\mathcal UU is nonempty and δ∗(v∣U)<VaRϵP(v)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)<\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)δ∗(v∣U)<VaRϵP​(v) for some v\mathbf vv at which δ∗(v∣U)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)δ∗(v∣U) is finite, then some bi-affine fff violates (2).

Milestones toward the goal

The proof in the electronic companion (EC.1.1) is a short chain, and its steps are the milestones: the attainment property of VaR, P(u~Tv>VaRϵP(v))≤ϵ\mathbb P(\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf v>\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v))\le\epsilonP(u~Tv>VaRϵP​(v))≤ϵ (already proved on the platform); a strict separating hyperplane between U\mathcal UU and the superlevel set {f(⋅,x∗)≥t}\{f(\cdot,\mathbf x^*)\ge t\}{f(⋅,x∗)≥t}; the bound P(f(u~,x∗)≥t)≤ϵ\mathbb P(f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)\ge t)\le\epsilonP(f(u~,x∗)≥t)≤ϵ for t>0t>0t>0; its limit P(f(u~,x∗)>0)≤ϵ\mathbb P(f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)>0)\le\epsilonP(f(u~,x∗)>0)≤ϵ; and, for part (b), the witness f(u,x)=vTu−xf(\mathbf u,x)=\mathbf v^T\mathbf u-xf(u,x)=vTu−x at x∗=δ∗(v∣U)x^*=\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)x∗=δ∗(v∣U).

Companions: Theorems 2 and 3

Theorem 2: with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α over the sample, U(S)\mathcal U(\mathcal S)U(S) implies a probabilistic guarantee at level ϵ\epsilonϵ for P∗\mathbb P^*P∗. Theorem 3: if the region does not depend on ϵ\epsilonϵ, then with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α the whole family {U(S,ϵ):0<ϵ<1}\{\mathcal U(\mathcal S,\epsilon):0<\epsilon<1\}{U(S,ϵ):0<ϵ<1} implies the guarantee simultaneously (a), and every x\mathbf xx satisfying the level-optimized constraints (9) satisfies the joint chance constraint

P∗(max⁡j=1,…,mfj(u~,x)≤0)≥1−ϵˉ(7)\mathbb P^*\Big(\max_{j=1,\dots,m}f_j(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x)\le0\Big)\ge1-\bar\epsilon \tag{7}P∗(j=1,…,mmax​fj​(u~,x)≤0)≥1−ϵˉ(7)

(b).

Significance

Theorem 1(a) is what certifies every uncertainty set in the paper: the χ2\chi^2χ2 and GGG sets for discrete distributions, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and forward–backward sets for independent marginals, the marginal-sample box and the moment sets. Each construction reduces to proving one inequality between a support function and a Value at Risk, which is a statement about a single linear functional, and Theorem 1(a) lifts it to every concave constraint at once. Part (b) shows the condition cannot be dropped even for bi-affine constraints. Theorems 2 and 3 separate the statistical input (coverage of a confidence region) from the convex-analytic input (the support-function bound), and Theorem 3(b) is what allows the levels ϵj\epsilon_jϵj​ of a system of constraints to be optimized after seeing the data.

The results are proved in the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof; the only formalized ingredient is the attainment property of VaR, which is on the platform as a proved theorem. The formalization provides a checked bridge from support-function bounds to probabilistic guarantees that the other missions of this series (II–VI) use to state their own results in the criterion form VaR≤δ∗\mathrm{VaR}\le\delta^*VaR≤δ∗.

Difficulty

The informal argument is short; the difficulty is in the infinite-dimensional bookkeeping that the page leaves implicit. The superlevel set {f(⋅,x∗)≥t}\{f(\cdot,\mathbf x^*)\ge t\}{f(⋅,x∗)≥t} need not be bounded, so the strict separation must use compactness of U\mathcal UU alone. Closedness of this set and measurability of {f(u~,x∗)≤0}\{f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)\le0\}{f(u~,x∗)≤0} depend on concave functions on Rd\mathbb R^dRd being continuous. The passage t↓0t\downarrow0t↓0 is continuity of a measure along an increasing union. The attainment of the infimum in the definition of VaR requires right-continuity of distribution functions. A naive attempt to separate U\mathcal UU from the zero superlevel set {f≥0}\{f\ge0\}{f≥0} directly fails, because the two sets may touch.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ; u~\tilde{\mathbf u}u~ is the identity map; vTu\mathbf v^T\mathbf uvTu is the dot product u ⬝ᵥ v. The Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ, and the support function is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction. Both are real-valued sInf/sSup, which return 000 on empty or unbounded sets, so every statement assumes 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, a probability measure, and an uncertainty set that is nonempty and compact (Theorem 1(a), Theorems 2–3) or nonempty with {vTu:u∈U}\{\mathbf v^T\mathbf u:\mathbf u\in\mathcal U\}{vTu:u∈U} bounded above in the direction considered (Theorem 1(b)). In Theorem 1(b) and its witness this is the paper's own requirement that δ∗(v∣U)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)δ∗(v∣U) be finite, which its strict inequality with a real VaR forces and its proof uses by treating δ∗(v∣U)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)δ∗(v∣U) as a real number. Part (b) is printed with U∗\mathcal U^*U∗, a slip for U\mathcal UU; the proof's separation step prints both inequalities in the same direction, a slip corrected in the strict separation milestone.

Property (P2) quantifies over the dimension kkk of the decision variable, every function concave in u\mathbf uu for each x\mathbf xx, and every x∗\mathbf x^*x∗. Restricting it to affine fff or to k=0k=0k=0 would trivialize part (a) and falsify part (b), and is ruled out by the definition.

In Theorems 2 and 3 the sample is Fin N → (Fin d → ℝ) with the product law Measure.pi; the confidence region and the uncertainty set are arbitrary maps of the sample, and the coverage PS∗(P∗∈P(S))≥1−α\mathbb P^*_{\mathcal S}(\mathbb P^*\in\mathcal P(\mathcal S))\ge1-\alphaPS∗​(P∗∈P(S))≥1−α is a hypothesis, never the conclusion's event. Step 2 of the schema is stated with g=δ∗(⋅∣U(S))g=\delta^*(\cdot\mid\mathcal U(\mathcal S))g=δ∗(⋅∣U(S)) directly. The sets are assumed nonempty and compact (Step 3 says closed and convex; a finite support function that bounds VaR forces nonemptiness and boundedness). Theorem 3(b) reads the levels ϵj\epsilon_jϵj​ in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), where the family is defined. Probabilities of events in the sample space are outer measures, so no measurability hypotheses are needed.

A complete development needs strict separation of a compact convex set from a closed convex set (Mathlib's geometric_hahn_banach_compact_closed), continuity of concave functions on finite-dimensional spaces, and the attainment property of VaR. Contributions are welcome on all milestones; the separation and limit steps are reusable for any chance-constraint argument based on support functions.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Mathematical Programming 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • X. Chen, M. Sim, P. Sun, A Robust Optimization Perspective on Stochastic Programming, Operations Research 55(6):1058–1071, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0441
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization II: With Known Finite Support, the χ² and G Uncertainty Sets Bound the Worst-Case Value at Risk over Their Confidence RegionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization replaces uncertain data by a set of possible values and requires a decision to work for every value in that set. A central question is how to choose the set from data so that robust feasibility also gives a specified chance of satisfying the original constraint. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus study this question for several sampling models in Data-Driven Robust Optimization. Their finite-support construction addresses a practical case: the uncertain vector can take one of finitely many known outcomes, while their probabilities must be inferred from observations. The resulting sets use classical goodness-of-fit tests to account for uncertainty in those probabilities. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, §§2–4, pp. 2–13.

In this case the support vectors are known in advance, so the problem is not to discover which outcomes are possible. The question is how much confidence to place in their estimated frequencies and how to turn that confidence region into a set of uncertain vectors suitable for a robust constraint. The paper gives two answers, one based on Pearson's chi-square statistic and one based on the likelihood-ratio, or G, statistic. Both answers are meant to work at every requested risk level 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1 for the same observed sample. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, Theorem 4, p. 13.

Setting

Let a0,…,an−1∈Rda_0,\ldots,a_{n-1}\in\mathbb R^da0​,…,an−1​∈Rd be the listed possible outcomes. A probability vector p=(pj)p=(p_j)p=(pj​) belongs to the simplex Δn\Delta_nΔn​ when all pjp_jpj​ are nonnegative and ∑jpj=1\sum_jp_j=1∑j​pj​=1. It determines the finite-support law Pp=∑jpjδajP_p=\sum_jp_j\delta_{a_j}Pp​=∑j​pj​δaj​​. From a sample one obtains the empirical frequencies p^∈Δn\hat p\in\Delta_np^​∈Δn​. A nonnegative number ρ\rhoρ records the test threshold; in the paper it is χn−1,1−α2/(2N)\chi^2_{n-1,1-\alpha}/(2N)χn−1,1−α2​/(2N), where NNN is sample size and α\alphaα is the test's significance level. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, (10), p. 12.

The Pearson confidence region Pχ2\mathcal P^{\chi^2}Pχ2 contains candidates p∈Δnp\in\Delta_np∈Δn​ satisfying ∑j(pj−p^j)2/(2pj)≤ρ\sum_j(p_j-\hat p_j)^2/(2p_j)\le\rho∑j​(pj​−p^​j​)2/(2pj​)≤ρ. The G confidence region PG\mathcal P^GPG instead requires D(p^,p)≤ρD(\hat p,p)\le\rhoD(p^​,p)≤ρ, with relative entropy D(r,p)=∑jrjlog⁡(rj/pj)D(r,p)=\sum_jr_j\log(r_j/p_j)D(r,p)=∑j​rj​log(rj​/pj​). In either region, a candidate pj=0p_j=0pj​=0 is excluded when p^j>0\hat p_j>0p^​j​>0: the source's divergence is then infinite. If both entries are zero, that coordinate contributes zero. These conventions matter because ordinary real division and logarithm in Lean have total values at zero. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, (10), p. 12.

For a direction v∈Rdv\in\mathbb R^dv∈Rd, value at risk VaR⁡ϵPp(v)\operatorname{VaR}^{P_p}_\epsilon(v)VaRϵPp​​(v) is the lower 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ quantile of the scalar loss uTvu^{\mathsf T}vuTv. Conditional value at risk is the minimum over real ttt of t+ϵ−1∑jpj(ajTv−t)+t+\epsilon^{-1}\sum_jp_j(a_j^{\mathsf T}v-t)^+t+ϵ−1∑j​pj​(ajT​v−t)+. The paper's auxiliary set UϵCVaR⁡PpU^{\operatorname{CVaR}_{P_p}}_\epsilonUϵCVaRPp​​​ reweights the outcomes with another probability vector qqq constrained by qj≤pj/ϵq_j\le p_j/\epsilonqj​≤pj​/ϵ. The two data-driven uncertainty sets Uϵχ2U^{\chi^2}_\epsilonUϵχ2​ and UϵGU^G_\epsilonUϵG​ allow such a reweighting for some ppp in the corresponding confidence region. Their support function δ∗(v∣U)\delta^*(v\mid U)δ∗(v∣U) is the largest uTvu^{\mathsf T}vuTv over u∈Uu\in Uu∈U. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, (11)–(13), pp. 12–13; Theorem EC.1, p. ec2.

Formalization targets

The first target is the paper's finite-support CVaR identity and the comparison between the two risk measures:

VaR⁡ϵPp(v)≤CVaR⁡ϵPp(v)=δ∗(v∣UϵCVaR⁡Pp).\operatorname{VaR}^{P_p}_\epsilon(v) \le \operatorname{CVaR}^{P_p}_\epsilon(v) =\delta^*(v\mid U^{\operatorname{CVaR}_{P_p}}_\epsilon).VaRϵPp​​(v)≤CVaRϵPp​​(v)=δ∗(v∣UϵCVaRPp​​​).

The goal is Theorem 4's deterministic claim, simultaneously for all 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1. For each ppp in the relevant confidence region, it asks for both bounds

VaR⁡ϵPp(v)≤δ∗(v∣Uϵχ2),VaR⁡ϵPp(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵG)\operatorname{VaR}^{P_p}_\epsilon(v)\le\delta^*(v\mid U^{\chi^2}_\epsilon), \qquad \operatorname{VaR}^{P_p}_\epsilon(v)\le\delta^*(v\mid U^G_\epsilon)VaRϵPp​​(v)≤δ∗(v∣Uϵχ2​),VaRϵPp​​(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵG​)

for every vvv, with each uncertainty set nonempty, convex, and compact. A supporting milestone identifies each support function as the supremum of CVaR over its confidence region. The paper also displays conic optimization programs for these support functions in (14) and (15); those programs are outside this mission's drafted statements. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, Theorem 4, p. 13; proof, p. ec2.

Significance

The bounds give a way to certify the directional risk of every candidate distribution accepted by a goodness-of-fit test. For a nonempty convex compact uncertainty set, the paper's Theorem 1 turns this directional condition into a probabilistic guarantee for every constraint concave in the uncertain vector. Theorem 4 adds the sampling claim through coverage of the confidence region: when the true finite-support distribution belongs to that region, the whole family indexed by ϵ\epsilonϵ receives the guarantee. The statistical tests use chi-square approximations, so their advertised coverage is asymptotic rather than an exact finite-sample result. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, Theorems 1–4, pp. 10–13.

The paper proves the mathematical result. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its finite-dimensional definitions, the CVaR identity, the worst-case support identities, and the deterministic risk bounds. The drafted Lean statements are open goals. A completed development would also give reusable facts about finite-support risk measures and support functions under divergence-constrained probabilities. It would leave the test coverage calculation and the explicit programs (14)–(15) for separate work.

Difficulty

The risk comparison alone does not identify a robust uncertainty set: the support function must agree with the worst-case CVaR over an entire region of probability vectors. This brings a finite-dimensional optimization identity into the formal proof, including attainment and the relationship between reweightings and distributions. Boundary coordinates create another difficulty. The Pearson expression divides by pjp_jpj​, and the G expression contains log⁡(p^j/pj)\log(\hat p_j/p_j)log(p^​j​/pj​); silently accepting Lean's values at zero would enlarge the regions and change the theorem. The support function and CVaR are real infima or suprema, so their nonempty, bounded domains must also be established. Bertsimas, Gupta, and Kallus, (10)–(13), pp. 12–13; proof, p. ec2.

Formalization scope

Lean represents outcomes and probability vectors as functions on Fin d and Fin n; indices start at zero. The simplex is Mathlib's stdSimplex. The law is a finite sum of point masses. If two listed vectors coincide, their point masses aggregate; the paper's notation pj=Pp(u~=aj)p_j=P_p(\tilde u=a_j)pj​=Pp​(u~=aj​) is recovered with the intended distinct listing. Value at risk and the support function reuse published Prove2Me definitions; the finite-vector relative entropy also reuses a published definition, guarded at zero in this mission's G region. CVaR uses a real sInf, equal to the paper's minimum for a simplex law and 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1. No statement applies it outside that domain.

The goal assumes p^∈Δn\hat p\in\Delta_np^​∈Δn​ and ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0. These express, respectively, that the center is an empirical probability vector and that the chi-square threshold is nonnegative. It quantifies over every 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, with the same confidence regions for all levels. The paper's sample size, chi-square quantile, and significance level are compressed into ρ\rhoρ; coverage of the true distribution by the test is a separate statistical premise and is not formalized here. The source's P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ is represented by Pp∗P_{p^*}Pp∗​ for a supported probability vector p∗p^*p∗. The draft does not treat an arbitrary unsupported law as a member of the confidence region.

The nonempty and compact conclusions rule out a zero returned by a support function on an empty or unbounded set. The zero-denominator guards rule out candidates the paper assigns infinite divergence. Contributions needed to close the mission include finite-simplex geometry, the finite-support CVaR identity, continuity of the divergence regions at boundary coordinates, and the risk-bound theorem. Those facts can be reused in later data-driven robust optimization developments.

Selected references

  • Dimitris Bertsimas, Vishal Gupta, and Nathan Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; revised version in Mathematical Programming 167 (2018), 235–292. Preprint.
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization III: For Independent Marginals, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov Set U^I Has Support Function (19) and Bounds the Worst-Case Value at RiskResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust linear constraint f(u,x)≤0f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)\le 0f(u,x)≤0 for all u∈U\mathbf u\in\mathcal Uu∈U replaces an uncertain parameter u~\tilde{\mathbf u}u~ by a deterministic uncertainty set U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (arXiv:1401.0212v2; Math. Program. 167, 2018) build such sets directly from data. Their requirement is a probabilistic guarantee: every robust-feasible decision should satisfy the constraint with probability at least 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ under the true distribution P∗\mathbb P^*P∗, and this should hold with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α over the sample. The construction runs a statistical hypothesis test, takes its confidence region of distributions, and turns the worst-case Value at Risk over that region into a set.

This mission covers the case where P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ may be continuous but its ddd coordinates are known to be independent and supported in a known box (§5.1 of the paper). The test is the classical Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test, applied separately to each marginal. The result is a convex set UϵI\mathcal U^I_\epsilonUϵI​ whose support function has a one-dimensional closed form, (19). The set is representable with exponential cones, and a line search over a single multiplier separates over it (Remarks 6–7).

Setting

Let d≥0d\ge 0d≥0 and N≥1N\ge 1N≥1 (the sample size). For each coordinate iii we are given points u^i(0)<u^i(1)<⋯<u^i(N)<u^i(N+1)\hat u^{(0)}_i<\hat u^{(1)}_i<\cdots<\hat u^{(N)}_i<\hat u^{(N+1)}_iu^i(0)​<u^i(1)​<⋯<u^i(N)​<u^i(N+1)​. The interval [u^i(0),u^i(N+1)][\hat u^{(0)}_i,\hat u^{(N+1)}_i][u^i(0)​,u^i(N+1)​] is the known box containing the support, and u^i(1),…,u^i(N)\hat u^{(1)}_i,\dots,\hat u^{(N)}_iu^i(1)​,…,u^i(N)​ are the order statistics of the iii-th coordinates of the data. Let Γ=ΓKS∈(0,1)\Gamma=\Gamma^{KS}\in(0,1)Γ=ΓKS∈(0,1) be the KS threshold and 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1.

  • The Value at Risk of P\mathbb PP in direction v\mathbf vv is VaRϵP(v)=inf⁡{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ}\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)=\inf\{t:\mathbb P(\tilde{\mathbf u}^{\mathsf T}\mathbf v\le t)\ge 1-\epsilon\}VaRϵP​(v)=inf{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ}.
  • The support function of a set is δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈UvTu\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{\mathbf u\in\mathcal U}\mathbf v^{\mathsf T}\mathbf uδ∗(v∣U)=supu∈U​vTu.
  • The KS region PiKS\mathcal P^{KS}_iPiKS​ is the set of Borel probability measures Pi\mathbb P_iPi​ on [u^i(0),u^i(N+1)][\hat u^{(0)}_i,\hat u^{(N+1)}_i][u^i(0)​,u^i(N+1)​] with Pi(u~i≤u^i(j))≥j/N−Γ\mathbb P_i(\tilde u_i\le\hat u^{(j)}_i)\ge j/N-\GammaPi​(u~i​≤u^i(j)​)≥j/N−Γ and Pi(u~i<u^i(j))≤(j−1)/N+Γ\mathbb P_i(\tilde u_i<\hat u^{(j)}_i)\le (j-1)/N+\GammaPi​(u~i​<u^i(j)​)≤(j−1)/N+Γ for j=1,…,Nj=1,\dots,Nj=1,…,N.
  • The independent region PI\mathcal P^IPI is the set of product measures ∏iPi\prod_i\mathbb P_i∏i​Pi​ with Pi∈PiKS\mathbb P_i\in\mathcal P^{KS}_iPi​∈PiKS​.
  • The vectors qL(Γ),qR(Γ)∈ΔN+2q^L(\Gamma),q^R(\Gamma)\in\Delta_{N+2}qL(Γ),qR(Γ)∈ΔN+2​ of (17) are the two boundary distributions of the KS band. With k=⌊N(1−Γ)⌋k=\lfloor N(1-\Gamma)\rfloork=⌊N(1−Γ)⌋, qLq^LqL puts mass Γ\GammaΓ at j=0j=0j=0, mass 1/N1/N1/N at j=1,…,kj=1,\dots,kj=1,…,k, and mass 1−Γ−k/N1-\Gamma-k/N1−Γ−k/N at j=k+1j=k+1j=k+1. Its mirror image is qjR=qN+1−jLq^R_j=q^L_{N+1-j}qjR​=qN+1−jL​.
  • The relative entropy is D(q,p)=∑jqjlog⁡(qj/pj)D(\mathbf q,\mathbf p)=\sum_jq_j\log(q_j/p_j)D(q,p)=∑j​qj​log(qj​/pj​).
  • The uncertainty set (18) is
UϵI={u:∃ θi∈[0,1], qi∈ΔN+2, ∑j=0N+1u^i(j)qji=ui, ∑i=1dD(qi,θiqL+(1−θi)qR)≤log⁡(1/ϵ)}.\mathcal U^I_\epsilon=\Big\{\mathbf u:\exists\,\theta_i\in[0,1],\ \mathbf q^i\in\Delta_{N+2},\ \sum_{j=0}^{N+1}\hat u^{(j)}_iq^i_j=u_i,\ \sum_{i=1}^dD\big(\mathbf q^i,\theta_i\mathbf q^L+(1-\theta_i)\mathbf q^R\big)\le\log(1/\epsilon)\Big\}.UϵI​={u:∃θi​∈[0,1], qi∈ΔN+2​, j=0∑N+1​u^i(j)​qji​=ui​, i=1∑d​D(qi,θi​qL+(1−θi​)qR)≤log(1/ϵ)}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (deterministic content)

For every v∈Rd\mathbf v\in\mathbb R^dv∈Rd:

UϵI is nonempty, convex and compact,VaRϵP(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵI)  ∀ P∈PI,\mathcal U^I_\epsilon\ \text{is nonempty, convex and compact},\qquad \mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^I_\epsilon)\ \ \forall\,\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^I,UϵI​ is nonempty, convex and compact,VaRϵP​(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵI​)  ∀P∈PI, δ∗(v∣UϵI)=inf⁡λ>0{λlog⁡(1/ϵ)+λ∑i=1dlog⁡[max⁡(∑jqjLeviu^i(j)/λ,∑jqjReviu^i(j)/λ)]}.(19)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^I_\epsilon)=\inf_{\lambda>0}\Big\{\lambda\log(1/\epsilon)+\lambda\sum_{i=1}^d\log\Big[\max\Big(\sum_{j}q^L_je^{v_i\hat u^{(j)}_i/\lambda},\sum_jq^R_je^{v_i\hat u^{(j)}_i/\lambda}\Big)\Big]\Big\}.\tag{19}δ∗(v∣UϵI​)=λ>0inf​{λlog(1/ϵ)+λi=1∑d​log[max(j∑​qjL​evi​u^i(j)​/λ,j∑​qjR​evi​u^i(j)​/λ)]}.(19)

Milestones, in attack order

  1. The Nemirovski–Shapiro bound VaRϵP(v)≤λlog⁡(1/ϵ)+λ∑ilog⁡EPi[eviu~i/λ]\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\lambda\log(1/\epsilon)+\lambda\sum_i\log\mathbb E^{\mathbb P_i}[e^{v_i\tilde u_i/\lambda}]VaRϵP​(v)≤λlog(1/ϵ)+λ∑i​logEPi​[evi​u~i​/λ] for independent, compactly supported marginals.
  2. The boundary laws qLq^LqL, qRq^RqR belong to PiKS\mathcal P^{KS}_iPiKS​.
  3. Theorem EC.2: for monotone ggg, sup⁡PiKSE[g(u~i)]=max⁡(∑jqjLg(u^i(j)),∑jqjRg(u^i(j)))\sup_{\mathcal P^{KS}_i}\mathbb E[g(\tilde u_i)]=\max(\sum_jq^L_jg(\hat u^{(j)}_i),\sum_jq^R_jg(\hat u^{(j)}_i))supPiKS​​E[g(u~i​)]=max(∑j​qjL​g(u^i(j)​),∑j​qjR​g(u^i(j)​)).
  4. (16) combined with EC.2: the Value at Risk over PI\mathcal P^IPI is at most the expression in (19), for every λ>0\lambda>0λ>0.
  5. The Lagrangian dual of max⁡{vTu:u∈UϵI}\max\{\mathbf v^{\mathsf T}\mathbf u:\mathbf u\in\mathcal U^I_\epsilon\}max{vTu:u∈UϵI​}.
  6. (EC.6): max⁡q∈Δ{cTq−D(q,p)}=log⁡∑jpjecj\max_{\mathbf q\in\Delta}\{\mathbf c^{\mathsf T}\mathbf q-D(\mathbf q,\mathbf p)\}=\log\sum_jp_je^{c_j}maxq∈Δ​{cTq−D(q,p)}=log∑j​pj​ecj​.
  7. (EC.7): the linear optimization over θi∈[0,1]\theta_i\in[0,1]θi​∈[0,1] is solved at an endpoint.

Significance

Theorem 5 gives a data-driven uncertainty set for continuous distributions with independent components. Its guarantee is finite-sample, not asymptotic, and its support function costs one line search over λ\lambdaλ to evaluate. Theorem 1 of the paper shows that VaR≤δ∗\mathrm{VaR}\le\delta^*VaR≤δ∗ for all v\mathbf vv is equivalent to the probabilistic guarantee for nonempty convex compact sets. So the goal certifies that every robust-feasible solution of a constraint concave in u\mathbf uu satisfies the chance constraint for every distribution the KS tests cannot reject. Theorem EC.2 is a reusable fact about KS bands: monotone expectations are extremized at the band's two boundary distributions.

The result is proved in the paper, but none of it has been formalized. A formal development would supply:

  • worst-case expectations over a KS confidence band;
  • the finite Gibbs variational identity with possibly vanishing reference masses;
  • a Chernoff-type Value-at-Risk bound for product measures;
  • a strong-duality statement for an entropy-constrained convex program.

Difficulty

The obvious route to the VaR bound is a union bound over coordinates. It loses a factor of ddd in ϵ\epsilonϵ, which is why the paper uses exponential moments and independence instead. The KS region is infinite dimensional, so the inner supremum of (16) is not a finite linear program. Reducing it to the boundary distributions needs the monotonicity of u↦eviu/λu\mapsto e^{v_iu/\lambda}u↦evi​u/λ, and a measure-level comparison of distribution functions against the band. The support-function identity needs strong duality for a jointly convex divergence constraint. The duality holds because θi↦θiqL+(1−θi)qR\theta_i\mapsto\theta_i\mathbf q^L+(1-\theta_i)\mathbf q^Rθi​↦θi​qL+(1−θi​)qR is affine and DDD is jointly convex. The reference vector can have zero entries (when N(1−Γ)N(1-\Gamma)N(1−Γ) is an integer, or in the middle of the band), so the Gibbs step must handle vanishing masses.

Formalization scope

  • Data and conventions. Coordinates are Fin d. The points are uhat : Fin d → Fin (N + 2) → ℝ with the page's indices j=0,…,N+1j=0,\dots,N+1j=0,…,N+1, and the KS constraints run over j : Fin N, which is the page's j−1j-1j−1. The order statistics are data. They are ordered, u^i(0)≤u^i(1)≤⋯≤u^i(N+1)\hat u^{(0)}_i\le\hat u^{(1)}_i\le\dots\le\hat u^{(N+1)}_iu^i(0)​≤u^i(1)​≤⋯≤u^i(N+1)​ (Monotone (uhat i)), as order statistics of a sample in the box are; ties are allowed.
  • Standing assumptions. N≥1N\ge1N≥1, 0<Γ<10<\Gamma<10<Γ<1 and 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1.
  • Regions. Measures in PiKS\mathcal P^{KS}_iPiKS​ are probability measures on R\mathbb RR carried by the box, and PI\mathcal P^IPI consists of the Measure.pi products of such measures, so independence is built in.
  • Relative entropy. DDD carries an explicit finiteness predicate (qj>0⇒pj>0q_j>0\Rightarrow p_j>0qj​>0⇒pj​>0), so Lean's log 0 = 0 cannot make an infinite divergence finite.
  • Published definitions. Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ, and δ∗\delta^*δ∗ is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction, a real sSup. The goal proves UϵI\mathcal U^I_\epsilonUϵI​ nonempty and compact, so δ∗\delta^*δ∗ is never the junk value 000 of an empty or unbounded set.
  • Infima and the multiplier. Infima over λ\lambdaλ are over λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and stated with IsGLB. The page's λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 gives the same value.
  • Criterion form of the guarantee. The guarantee is stated as VaRϵP(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵI)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^I_\epsilon)VaRϵP​(v)≤δ∗(v∣UϵI​) for all P∈PI\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^IP∈PI. By Theorem 1 (mission I of this series), this criterion is equivalent to the probabilistic guarantee for nonempty convex compact sets.
  • Coverage of the test. The statement "with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α over the sample" is the coverage of PI\mathcal P^IPI. It rests on the distribution-free law of the KS statistic (tables) and on combining ddd tests at level 1−1−αd1-\sqrt[d]{1-\alpha}1−d1−α​. This part is cited, not formalized.
  • Ruled out. The VaR inequality is never checked against a δ∗\delta^*δ∗ that sSup collapses to 000, and the divergence budget is never relaxed by unguarded logarithms.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. Milestones 1, 3 and 6 are independent of each other and of the rest; the goal follows from milestones 1–7 together with the convex-analytic facts about UϵI\mathcal U^I_\epsilonUϵI​.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Shapiro, Convex approximations of chance constrained programs, SIAM J. Optim. 17(4):969–996, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1137/050622328
  • M. A. Stephens, EDF statistics for goodness of fit and some comparisons, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 69(347):730–737, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1974.10480196
  • S. Boyd, L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization, Cambridge University Press, 2004. https://web.stanford.edu/~boyd/cvxbook/
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization IV: The Forward–Backward Deviation Set U^FB Has a Closed-Form Support Function That Bounds the Worst-Case Value at RiskResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust linear constraint u⊤v≤tu^\top v \le tu⊤v≤t with uuu ranging over an uncertainty set U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd is tractable whenever the support function δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈Uu⊤v\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{u\in\mathcal U}u^\top vδ∗(v∣U)=supu∈U​u⊤v is. Robust optimization gains a probabilistic meaning when U\mathcal UU is chosen so that every robustly feasible decision also satisfies the constraint with probability at least 1−ε1-\varepsilon1−ε under the true distribution P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ of the uncertain parameter u~\tilde uu~. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (arXiv:1401.0212v2; Math. Program. 167, 2018) build such sets from data: a statistical hypothesis test yields a confidence region P\mathcal PP of distributions, and the uncertainty set is any convex set whose support function dominates the worst-case Value at Risk over P\mathcal PP.

Section 5.2 of the paper applies this schema to the forward and backward deviations of Chen, Sim and Sun (Oper. Res. 55, 2007), one-sided measures of spread that capture skewness. Chen, Sim and Sun assume the mean and deviations are known; the data-driven version replaces them by confidence intervals and must work out the worst case over those intervals. The result is the set UεFB\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilonUεFB​ of Theorem 6, whose support function has a closed form.

Setting

The uncertain parameter u~\tilde uu~ takes values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd and P\mathbb PP is its law. For ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1)ε∈(0,1) and v∈Rdv\in\mathbb R^dv∈Rd, the Value at Risk is

VaRεP(v)=inf⁡{t:P(u~⊤v≤t)≥1−ε}.\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\varepsilon(v)=\inf\{t:\mathbb P(\tilde u^\top v\le t)\ge1-\varepsilon\}.VaRεP​(v)=inf{t:P(u~⊤v≤t)≥1−ε}.

For a probability measure Pi\mathbb P_iPi​ on R\mathbb RR with mean μi\mu_iμi​, the forward deviation and the backward deviation are

σf(Pi)=sup⁡x>0−2μix+2x2log⁡EPi[exu~i],σb(Pi)=sup⁡x>02μix+2x2log⁡EPi[e−xu~i].\sigma_f(\mathbb P_i)=\sup_{x>0}\sqrt{-\tfrac{2\mu_i}{x}+\tfrac{2}{x^2}\log\mathbb E^{\mathbb P_i}[e^{x\tilde u_i}]},\qquad\sigma_b(\mathbb P_i)=\sup_{x>0}\sqrt{\tfrac{2\mu_i}{x}+\tfrac{2}{x^2}\log\mathbb E^{\mathbb P_i}[e^{-x\tilde u_i}]}.σf​(Pi​)=x>0sup​−x2μi​​+x22​logEPi​[exu~i​]​,σb​(Pi​)=x>0sup​x2μi​​+x22​logEPi​[e−xu~i​]​.

From a sample, a bootstrap produces thresholds tit_iti​, σˉfi\bar\sigma_{fi}σˉfi​, σˉbi\bar\sigma_{bi}σˉbi​. With the sample mean μ^i\hat\mu_iμ^​i​ put mbi=μ^i−tim_{bi}=\hat\mu_i-t_imbi​=μ^​i​−ti​ and mfi=μ^i+tim_{fi}=\hat\mu_i+t_imfi​=μ^​i​+ti​. The confidence region PFB\mathcal P^{FB}PFB consists of the distributions of vectors with independent components u~i∼Pi\tilde u_i\sim\mathbb P_iu~i​∼Pi​, each Pi\mathbb P_iPi​ having bounded support, mean in [mbi,mfi][m_{bi},m_{fi}][mbi​,mfi​], σf(Pi)≤σˉfi\sigma_f(\mathbb P_i)\le\bar\sigma_{fi}σf​(Pi​)≤σˉfi​ and σb(Pi)≤σˉbi\sigma_b(\mathbb P_i)\le\bar\sigma_{bi}σb​(Pi​)≤σˉbi​.

The uncertainty set is

UεFB={y1+y2−y3: y2,y3∈R+d, ∑i=1d(y2i22σˉfi2+y3i22σˉbi2)≤log⁡(1/ε), mbi≤y1i≤mfi}.\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilon=\Big\{y_1+y_2-y_3:\ y_2,y_3\in\mathbb R^d_+,\ \sum_{i=1}^d\Big(\frac{y_{2i}^2}{2\bar\sigma_{fi}^2}+\frac{y_{3i}^2}{2\bar\sigma_{bi}^2}\Big)\le\log(1/\varepsilon),\ m_{bi}\le y_{1i}\le m_{fi}\Big\}.UεFB​={y1​+y2​−y3​: y2​,y3​∈R+d​, i=1∑d​(2σˉfi2​y2i2​​+2σˉbi2​y3i2​​)≤log(1/ε), mbi​≤y1i​≤mfi​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

For mb≤mfm_b\le m_fmb​≤mf​, σˉf,σˉb>0\bar\sigma_f,\bar\sigma_b>0σˉf​,σˉb​>0 and ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1)ε∈(0,1), the set UεFB\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilonUεFB​ is nonempty, convex and compact,

δ∗(v∣UεFB)=∑i:vi≥0mfivi+∑i:vi<0mbivi+2log⁡(1/ε)(∑i:vi≥0σˉfi2vi2+∑i:vi<0σˉbi2vi2)(24)\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilon)=\sum_{i:v_i\ge0}m_{fi}v_i+\sum_{i:v_i<0}m_{bi}v_i+\sqrt{2\log(1/\varepsilon)\Big(\sum_{i:v_i\ge0}\bar\sigma_{fi}^2v_i^2+\sum_{i:v_i<0}\bar\sigma_{bi}^2v_i^2\Big)}\qquad(24)δ∗(v∣UεFB​)=i:vi​≥0∑​mfi​vi​+i:vi​<0∑​mbi​vi​+2log(1/ε)(i:vi​≥0∑​σˉfi2​vi2​+i:vi​<0∑​σˉbi2​vi2​)​(24)

for every vvv, and VaRεP(v)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\varepsilon(v)VaRεP​(v) is at most the right-hand side of (24) for every P∈PFB\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^{FB}P∈PFB and every vvv.

Milestones

  1. The Chen–Sim–Sun bound (22): for independent components with known means μi\mu_iμi​ and deviations, VaRεP(v)≤∑iμivi+2log⁡(1/ε)(∑vi<0σbi2vi2+∑vi≥0σfi2vi2)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\varepsilon(v)\le\sum_i\mu_iv_i+\sqrt{2\log(1/\varepsilon)(\sum_{v_i<0}\sigma_{bi}^2v_i^2+\sum_{v_i\ge0}\sigma_{fi}^2v_i^2)}VaRεP​(v)≤∑i​μi​vi​+2log(1/ε)(∑vi​<0​σbi2​vi2​+∑vi​≥0​σfi2​vi2​)​.
  2. The right-hand side of (24) is the worst case of (22) over the parameters allowed by PFB\mathcal P^{FB}PFB.
  3. Lagrangian strong duality for max⁡u∈UεFBu⊤v\max_{u\in\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilon}u^\top vmaxu∈UεFB​​u⊤v.
  4. The three one-dimensional sub-subproblems and their optimal values.
  5. The combined formula: δ∗\delta^*δ∗ equals a linear term plus inf⁡λ>0{λlog⁡(1/ε)+S/(2λ)}\inf_{\lambda>0}\{\lambda\log(1/\varepsilon)+S/(2\lambda)\}infλ>0​{λlog(1/ε)+S/(2λ)}.
  6. inf⁡λ>0{λL+S/(2λ)}=2LS\inf_{\lambda>0}\{\lambda L+S/(2\lambda)\}=\sqrt{2LS}infλ>0​{λL+S/(2λ)}=2LS​, attained at λ∗=S/(2L)\lambda^*=\sqrt{S/(2L)}λ∗=S/(2L)​ when S>0S>0S>0.

Companions

  • Remark 9: when (24) exceeds ttt, an explicit point of UεFB\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilonUεFB​ gives a violated cut u⊤v≤tu^\top v\le tu⊤v≤t.
  • Theorem 13(b): the constraint δ∗(v∣UεFB)≤t\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilon)\le tδ∗(v∣UεFB​)≤t is convex in (v,t)(v,t)(v,t) and convex in ε\varepsilonε for 0<ε<1/e0<\varepsilon<1/\sqrt e0<ε<1/e​.

Significance

Theorem 6 gives a data-driven uncertainty set for which a robust linear constraint is a second-order cone constraint, (24) being an explicit norm expression. By Theorem 1 of the paper, the domination of the worst-case Value at Risk over the region by the support function means that every robustly feasible solution satisfies a chance constraint at level ε\varepsilonε for every distribution in the region. Unlike the Chen–Sim–Sun set, which requires the true mean and deviations, UεFB\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilonUεFB​ needs only data and allows the mean and the support to be unknown. Theorem 13(b) supports the alternating heuristic of §9 for choosing the levels εj\varepsilon_jεj​ across several constraints.

The paper's proof is short and leans on "by inspection" and "by Lagrangian strong duality". A formal development makes each of these steps explicit, including the case where the multiplier is not attained, and corrects two printed slips (the optimal values viσˉ2/(2λ)v_i\bar\sigma^2/(2\lambda)vi​σˉ2/(2λ), which should be vi2σˉ2/(2λ)v_i^2\bar\sigma^2/(2\lambda)vi2​σˉ2/(2λ), and the bound mb≤y1≤mbm_b\le y_1\le m_bmb​≤y1​≤mb​). The Chen–Sim–Sun bound itself, a Chernoff-type tail bound under one-sided moment-generating conditions, is cited by the paper without proof. None of these results has a machine-checked proof that this mission is aware of.

Difficulty

The support function of (23) is a maximisation over a set defined by a box, two nonnegative orthants and one coupled quadratic constraint. A coordinate-wise argument does not apply directly because the quadratic budget is shared. The worst case over PFB\mathcal P^{FB}PFB is not a single distribution: the extreme mean and the extreme deviations are chosen coordinate by coordinate according to the sign of viv_ivi​. The Value at Risk bound needs independence of the components; without it (22) fails. When v=0v=0v=0 or the sign pattern makes the quadratic term vanish, the dual multiplier escapes to zero and the dual minimum is only an infimum.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin d → ℝ, with 0-based coordinates; u~⊤v\tilde u^\top vu~⊤v is u ⬝ᵥ v. The Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level 1−ε1-\varepsilon1−ε, and the support function is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction, a real supremum; the goal includes nonemptiness and compactness of UεFB\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilonUεFB​, so the supremum is a true maximum and cannot hold through the value 000 of an empty or unbounded set.

The statement is formalized in the criterion form: VaRεP(v)≤δ∗(v∣UεFB)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\varepsilon(v)\le\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U^{FB}_\varepsilon)VaRεP​(v)≤δ∗(v∣UεFB​) for all vvv and every P\mathbb PP in the region. By Theorem 1 (mission I of this series), for a nonempty convex compact set this criterion is equivalent to the probabilistic guarantee. The page's "with probability 1−α1-\alpha1−α with respect to the sample" is the coverage of the bootstrap confidence region, which the paper itself treats as approximate; it is not formalized.

Conventions and added hypotheses:

  • σˉfi,σˉbi>0\bar\sigma_{fi},\bar\sigma_{bi}>0σˉfi​,σˉbi​>0, so that the denominators of (23) are genuine; with σˉ=0\bar\sigma=0σˉ=0 Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 would leave y2y_2y2​ unconstrained instead of forcing y2=0y_2=0y2​=0.
  • mb≤mfm_b\le m_fmb​≤mf​, which holds because ti≥0t_i\ge0ti​≥0.
  • The region is built from a product measure (independence) of probability measures with bounded support. These are the hypotheses of Theorem 6 on P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ and the section's standing assumption; the page's set-builder for PFB\mathcal P^{FB}PFB omits independence. Without bounded support, the Bochner integral of a non-integrable exponential is 000 in Lean and the deviation conditions would lose their meaning.
  • "σf(Pi)≤σˉ\sigma_f(\mathbb P_i)\le\bar\sigmaσf​(Pi​)≤σˉ" is the predicate "the expression under the root is at most σˉ2\bar\sigma^2σˉ2 for every x>0x>0x>0", which is equivalent and avoids an unbounded supremum.
  • Dual minimisations over λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 are infima over λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, stated with IsGLB.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a region without independence would make the goal false, a region without the probability and bounded-support conditions would let junk integrals satisfy the deviation predicates, and a support function of an empty set would make (24) a statement about 000.

The development needs a Chernoff argument for products of measures, finite-dimensional Lagrangian duality for one convex quadratic constraint (or a direct Cauchy–Schwarz argument), and compactness of the set (23). The definitions file is self-contained and reusable for other forward/backward-deviation sets. Proofs of any milestone, and of the Chen–Sim–Sun bound as a standalone tail inequality, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
  • X. Chen, M. Sim, P. Sun, A Robust Optimization Perspective on Stochastic Programming, Operations Research 55(6):1058–1071, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0441
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization V: The Order-Statistic Box U^M Built from Marginal Samples Dominates Value at Risk with Probability at Least 1 − αResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization replaces an uncertain constraint f(u~,x)≤0f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x)\le 0f(u~,x)≤0 by the requirement that it hold for every u\mathbf uu in an uncertainty set U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd. The resulting problems are tractable for many sets, but the choice of U\mathcal UU decides whether the solution means anything probabilistically. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (arXiv:1401.0212v2; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018) propose to build U\mathcal UU from data so that, with high probability over the sample, every robust-feasible decision is also feasible with probability at least 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ under the unknown distribution P∗\mathbb P^*P∗.

This mission covers §6 of that paper, the case where the data are samples of the marginals of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗, observed separately, with no assumption that the marginals are independent. This is the situation of asynchronous measurements or records with many missing entries: the joint law cannot be learned, yet a valid uncertainty set can still be built. The set is a box whose sides are order statistics, and its guarantee rests on an elementary binomial test (David and Nagaraja, Order Statistics, §7.1) and a Value-at-Risk bound of Embrechts, Höing and Juri (Finance Stoch. 7, 2003).

Setting

Let P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ be a probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd whose support lies in a known box [u^(0),u^(N+1)]={u:u^i(0)≤ui≤u^i(N+1)}[\hat{\mathbf u}^{(0)},\hat{\mathbf u}^{(N+1)}]=\{\mathbf u:\hat u^{(0)}_i\le u_i\le\hat u^{(N+1)}_i\}[u^(0),u^(N+1)]={u:u^i(0)​≤ui​≤u^i(N+1)​}. Fix a violation level 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1 and a significance level 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1.

The Value at Risk of u~Tv\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf vu~Tv under a probability measure P\mathbb PP is

VaRϵP(v)=inf⁡{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ},\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)=\inf\{t:\mathbb P(\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf v\le t)\ge1-\epsilon\},VaRϵP​(v)=inf{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ},

and the support function of a set U\mathcal UU is δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈UvTu\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{\mathbf u\in\mathcal U}\mathbf v^T\mathbf uδ∗(v∣U)=supu∈U​vTu. A set U\mathcal UU implies a probabilistic guarantee at level ϵ\epsilonϵ for P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ if for every f(u,x)f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)f(u,x) concave in u\mathbf uu and every x∗\mathbf x^*x∗, f(u,x∗)≤0f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x^*)\le0f(u,x∗)≤0 for all u∈U\mathbf u\in\mathcal Uu∈U implies P∗(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ\mathbb P^*(f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)\le0)\ge1-\epsilonP∗(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ.

From a sample u^1,…,u^N\hat{\mathbf u}^1,\dots,\hat{\mathbf u}^Nu^1,…,u^N let u^i(j)\hat u^{(j)}_iu^i(j)​, 1≤j≤N1\le j\le N1≤j≤N, be the jjj-th order statistic (the jjj-th smallest value) of coordinate iii, and let u^i(0),u^i(N+1)\hat u^{(0)}_i,\hat u^{(N+1)}_iu^i(0)​,u^i(N+1)​ be the box ends. The index sss is

s=min⁡{k∈N:∑j=kN(Nj)(ϵ/d)N−j(1−ϵ/d)j≤α2d},s=N+1 if the set is empty,(26)s=\min\Big\{k\in\mathbb N:\sum_{j=k}^N\binom Nj(\epsilon/d)^{N-j}(1-\epsilon/d)^j\le\frac{\alpha}{2d}\Big\},\qquad s=N+1\text{ if the set is empty}, \tag{26}s=min{k∈N:j=k∑N​(jN​)(ϵ/d)N−j(1−ϵ/d)j≤2dα​},s=N+1 if the set is empty,(26)

and the uncertainty set is the box

UϵM={u∈Rd:u^i(N−s+1)≤ui≤u^i(s), i=1,…,d}.(28)\mathcal U^M_\epsilon=\{\mathbf u\in\mathbb R^d:\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i\le u_i\le\hat u^{(s)}_i,\ i=1,\dots,d\}. \tag{28}UϵM​={u∈Rd:u^i(N−s+1)​≤ui​≤u^i(s)​, i=1,…,d}.(28)

The confidence region PM\mathcal P^MPM is the set of probability measures on the box with VaRϵ/dP(ei)≤u^i(s)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(\mathbf e_i)\le\hat u^{(s)}_iVaRϵ/dP​(ei​)≤u^i(s)​ and VaRϵ/dP(−ei)≤−u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(-\mathbf e_i)\le-\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/dP​(−ei​)≤−u^i(N−s+1)​ for every iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

If N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s, then with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α over the sample (NNN samples of each marginal of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗, each marginal's samples i.i.d., arbitrary dependence across marginals),

δ∗(v∣UϵM)≥VaRϵP∗(v)for all v∈Rd,\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\qquad\text{for all }\mathbf v\in\mathbb R^d,δ∗(v∣UϵM​)≥VaRϵP∗​(v)for all v∈Rd,

and, for every sample, UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​ is nonempty, convex and compact with

δ∗(v∣UϵM)=∑i=1dmax⁡(viu^i(N−s+1), viu^i(s)).(29)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)=\sum_{i=1}^d\max\big(v_i\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i,\,v_i\hat u^{(s)}_i\big). \tag{29}δ∗(v∣UϵM​)=i=1∑d​max(vi​u^i(N−s+1)​,vi​u^i(s)​).(29)

Milestones

  1. Positive homogeneity: VaRδP(cw)=c VaRδP(w)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\delta(c\mathbf w)=c\,\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\delta(\mathbf w)VaRδP​(cw)=cVaRδP​(w) for c>0c>0c>0 (p. 10).
  2. Each one-sided order-statistic test is valid at level α/(2d)\alpha/(2d)α/(2d): PS∗(u^i(s)<VaRϵ/dP∗(ei))≤α/(2d)\mathbb P^*_{\mathcal S}(\hat u^{(s)}_i<\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_{\epsilon/d}(\mathbf e_i))\le\alpha/(2d)PS∗​(u^i(s)​<VaRϵ/dP∗​(ei​))≤α/(2d), and the mirror bound for −ei-\mathbf e_i−ei​ with u^i(N−s+1)\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iu^i(N−s+1)​ (pp. 20–21).
  3. Union bound: PS∗(P∗∈PM)≥1−α\mathbb P^*_{\mathcal S}(\mathbb P^*\in\mathcal P^M)\ge1-\alphaPS∗​(P∗∈PM)≥1−α (p. 21).
  4. The weak Embrechts bound VaRϵP(v)≤∑iVaRϵ/dP(viei)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\sum_i\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(v_i\mathbf e_i)VaRϵP​(v)≤∑i​VaRϵ/dP​(vi​ei​) for every probability measure P\mathbb PP (p. 21).
  5. If N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s then u^i(N−s+1)≤u^i(s)\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i\le\hat u^{(s)}_iu^i(N−s+1)​≤u^i(s)​ (p. 21).
  6. (EC.8): for P∈PM\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^MP∈PM, VaRϵP(v)≤∑vi>0viu^i(s)+∑vi≤0viu^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\sum_{v_i>0}v_i\hat u^{(s)}_i+\sum_{v_i\le0}v_i\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵP​(v)≤∑vi​>0​vi​u^i(s)​+∑vi​≤0​vi​u^i(N−s+1)​ (p. ec5).
  7. (29) as a standalone statement (p. 21).

Significance

Theorem 7 gives an uncertainty set with a finite-sample guarantee from data that carry no information on the dependence between coordinates. The set is a box, so the robust counterpart of a linear constraint is again linear, and Remark 12 of the paper notes that separation over {(v,t):δ∗(v∣UM)≤t}\{(\mathbf v,t):\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M)\le t\}{(v,t):δ∗(v∣UM)≤t} is in closed form. Unlike the other confidence regions of the paper (χ², G-test, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, bootstrap), whose coverage is asymptotic, tabulated or approximate, the test here is exact and distribution-free, so the probability statement itself is in scope.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a complete formal statement of Theorem 7 including the sampling probability, the binomial order-statistic test for a quantile, and the marginal Value-at-Risk bound, all of which are standard tools in nonparametric statistics and risk management that are absent from Mathlib.

Difficulty

The deterministic half, (EC.8) and (29), is short once the weak Embrechts bound is available. The work is in the probabilistic half, which the paper delegates to a textbook citation. Validity of the order-statistic test ties together facts that no library currently connects: the combinatorics of sorted tuples, the binomial law of the number of i.i.d. sample points below a threshold, the behaviour of a quantile at its left limit (the distribution function at the quantile can exceed 1−ϵ/d1-\epsilon/d1−ϵ/d, so the obvious bound uses the wrong probability), and the comparison of binomial tails across success probabilities. The lower-tail test must be handled with the index N−s+1N-s+1N−s+1 and the quantile of −u~i-\tilde u_i−u~i​, where a sign or off-by-one slip produces a false statement that still looks plausible. The boundary regime s=N+1s=N+1s=N+1, where UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​ is the a priori box, is valid only because P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ lives in that box and needs separate treatment.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with 0-based coordinates; vectors pair by ⬝ᵥ. Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ applied to u↦uTv\mathbf u\mapsto\mathbf u^T\mathbf vu↦uTv, and the support function is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction; both are real infima/suprema, genuine under 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, a probability measure, and a nonempty bounded set (the goal proves the latter). The order statistics use Mathlib's Tuple.sort; the index N−s+1N-s+1N−s+1 is N + 1 - s in natural numbers, which is the paper's value since 1≤s≤N+11\le s\le N+11≤s≤N+1.

The data are an array S : Fin N → Fin d → ℝ, S k i the kkk-th sample of marginal iii, under any probability law Q such that, for each iii, the samples S 0 i, …, S (N-1) i are i.i.d. from the iii-th marginal of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ (IsMarginalSampleLaw). The dependence between samples of different marginals is left arbitrary, as the paper's asynchronous setting requires; i.i.d. draws of whole vectors are one admissible law. Probabilities of possibly non-measurable events are outer measures. The level ϵ\epsilonϵ is fixed: by Remark 11 the family {UϵM}\{\mathcal U^M_\epsilon\}{UϵM​} need not work for all ϵ\epsilonϵ simultaneously.

The guarantee is stated in the criterion form of Theorem 1(a) of the paper: δ∗(v∣UϵM)≥VaRϵP∗(v)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)δ∗(v∣UϵM​)≥VaRϵP∗​(v) for all v\mathbf vv, together with nonemptiness, convexity and compactness of UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​. Theorem 1 (mission I of this series) shows that for such sets this criterion is equivalent to implying a probabilistic guarantee. The coverage of the test is proved, not assumed: there is no hypothesis that P∗∈PM\mathbb P^*\in\mathcal P^MP∗∈PM. A formalization in which the support function is evaluated on an empty or unbounded set, where the library value is 0, would make the criterion trivial; the nonemptiness and compactness conjunct of the goal rules it out.

Standing assumptions: d≥1d\ge1d≥1, 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, u^(0)≤u^(N+1)\hat{\mathbf u}^{(0)}\le\hat{\mathbf u}^{(N+1)}u^(0)≤u^(N+1), P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ a probability measure with P∗\mathbb P^*P∗-null complement of the box, and Theorem 7's hypothesis N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s. The page prints the second condition of PM\mathcal P^MPM as "VaRϵ/dPi≥u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P_i}_{\epsilon/d}\ge\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/dPi​​≥u^i(N−s+1)​"; the formal region uses the lower-tail condition VaRϵ/d(−ei)≤−u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}_{\epsilon/d}(-\mathbf e_i)\le-\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/d​(−ei​)≤−u^i(N−s+1)​ that the hypothesis, its rejection rule and the proof use. (EC.8) is stated with "≤\le≤" for each P∈PM\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^MP∈PM; the page's middle equality is not claimed.

Reusable infrastructure welcome beyond this mission: order statistics of tuples and the binomial law of threshold counts for i.i.d. samples; monotonicity of binomial tails in the success probability; the left-limit property of quantiles; the Embrechts-type subadditivity bound for Value at Risk.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
  • H. A. David, H. N. Nagaraja, Order Statistics, Wiley (cited by the paper as 1970; third edition 2003), §7.1, distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471722162
  • P. Embrechts, A. Höing, A. Juri, Using copulae to bound the Value-at-Risk for functions of dependent risks, Finance and Stochastics 7:145–167, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007800200085
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Data-Driven Robust Optimization VI: The Moment Set U^CS Has Support Function μ̂ᵀv + Γ₁‖v‖ + √(1/ε − 1)‖Cv‖, an Upper Bound on the Worst-Case Value at RiskResearch Paper

Motivation

In robust optimization, a constraint is checked against every parameter value in an uncertainty set. This turns uncertainty into a deterministic optimization problem, but the set must be chosen carefully: a large set can make decisions unnecessarily conservative, while a small one can miss likely outcomes. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus use data to calibrate sets through statistical confidence regions. Their question is whether feasibility for every parameter in the set protects a decision against a fresh uncertain outcome with a specified probability. This mission treats the part of their construction based on estimated first and second moments. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, §8.1.

The moment region originates in a concentration result attributed in the paper to Shawe-Taylor and Cristianini. That result bounds the distance between sample and population means and covariances when the uncertain vector is supported in a Euclidean ball. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus also discuss replacing those analytic thresholds with bootstrap thresholds; they describe the resulting coverage as approximate. The present target concerns the mathematical relation between a fixed moment region and its uncertainty set, leaving the statistical calibration of the thresholds to its cited source. Shawe-Taylor and Cristianini, 2003; Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, pp. 24–25.

Setting

Let the uncertain vector u~\tilde uu~ take values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. A probability law PPP belongs to the moment confidence region PCS\mathcal P^{CS}PCS when it is supported in the Euclidean ball of radius RRR, its mean mPm_PmP​ is within Γ1\Gamma_1Γ1​ of an estimate μ^\hat\muμ^​, and its covariance SPS_PSP​ is within Γ2\Gamma_2Γ2​ of an estimate Σ^\hat\SigmaΣ^ in Frobenius norm. The covariance is SP=EP[u~u~⊤]−mPmP⊤S_P=\mathbb E_P[\tilde u\tilde u^\top]-m_Pm_P^\topSP​=EP​[u~u~⊤]−mP​mP⊤​. The thresholds Γ1,Γ2\Gamma_1,\Gamma_2Γ1​,Γ2​ are nonnegative and can be chosen by either calibration procedure discussed in the paper. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, Theorem 9 and (33).

For a vector vvv, Value at Risk VaR⁡εP(v)\operatorname{VaR}^{P}_{\varepsilon}(v)VaRεP​(v) is the smallest threshold ttt for which P(u~⊤v≤t)≥1−εP(\tilde u^\top v\le t)\ge1-\varepsilonP(u~⊤v≤t)≥1−ε. The support function of a set U\mathcal UU is δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈Uu⊤v\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{u\in\mathcal U}u^\top vδ∗(v∣U)=supu∈U​u⊤v. The authors construct the set

UεCS={μ^+y+C⊤w:∥y∥2≤Γ1, ∥w∥2≤1/ε−1},C⊤C=Σ^+Γ2I.\mathcal U^{CS}_{\varepsilon} =\{\hat\mu+y+C^\top w:\|y\|_2\le\Gamma_1,\ \|w\|_2\le\sqrt{1/\varepsilon-1}\}, \qquad C^\top C=\hat\Sigma+\Gamma_2 I.UεCS​={μ^​+y+C⊤w:∥y∥2​≤Γ1​, ∥w∥2​≤1/ε−1​},C⊤C=Σ^+Γ2​I.

Here 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1 is the allowed violation probability, III is the identity matrix, and CCC is a matrix factor of the adjusted covariance. The estimates and CCC stay fixed while ε\varepsilonε varies. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, (34)–(35).

Formalization targets

The first milestone bounds the quantile for every law in the moment region:

VaR⁡εP(v)≤μ^⊤v+Γ1∥v∥2+1−εεv⊤(Σ^+Γ2I)v(P∈PCS).\operatorname{VaR}^{P}_{\varepsilon}(v)\le \hat\mu^\top v+\Gamma_1\|v\|_2+ \sqrt{\frac{1-\varepsilon}{\varepsilon}} \sqrt{v^\top(\hat\Sigma+\Gamma_2I)v} \quad(P\in\mathcal P^{CS}).VaRεP​(v)≤μ^​⊤v+Γ1​∥v∥2​+ε1−ε​​v⊤(Σ^+Γ2​I)v​(P∈PCS).

The second milestone evaluates the two linear maxima over the Euclidean balls in UεCS\mathcal U^{CS}_{\varepsilon}UεCS​ and identifies ∥Cv∥2\|Cv\|_2∥Cv∥2​ with the quadratic form above. The goal, the deterministic part of Theorem 10, says the displayed bound equals δ∗(v∣UεCS)\delta^*(v\mid\mathcal U^{CS}_{\varepsilon})δ∗(v∣UεCS​) for every vvv, while the set is nonempty, convex and compact. This gives the support-function criterion of Theorem 1 for each law in the region. A companion formalizes Theorem 13(a): the resulting support constraint is separately convex in (v,t)(v,t)(v,t) and in ε\varepsilonε for 0<ε<3/40<\varepsilon<3/40<ε<3/4. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, Theorems 10 and 13(a).

Significance

The support formula turns a distributional statement about an entire region of probability laws into a deterministic bound on a linear projection. It gives the robust model an explicit quantity to compare with a constraint threshold. The companion convexity result describes which risk levels allow separate convex optimization in the decision variables and the violation probability. Together they explain why the particular set in (35) is useful beyond the fact that it contains plausible uncertain vectors. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, §§8.1 and 9.

The paper proves the mathematical construction and cites statistical results for the region's coverage. In Lean, the published Value-at-Risk and support-function definitions are already available, while this paper's moment region and set (35) need their own definitions. Formalizing the result therefore establishes a reusable interface between moment bounds, quantiles and set support. The theorem statements in this proposal are open proof targets; compiling them checks their types, not their proofs.

Difficulty

A bound on the mean and covariance does not directly bound a high quantile of every projection. The bound must work simultaneously for every probability law in the moment region, including discrete laws and singular covariances. The factor (1−ε)/ε\sqrt{(1-\varepsilon)/\varepsilon}(1−ε)/ε​ is essential: replacing it by a standard deviation or a Gaussian quantile would change the claim. On the set side, the ordinary norm of a Lean function vector is a sup norm, whereas both balls in (35) are Euclidean. Getting the norm wrong changes the support function. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, (34)–(35).

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions on Fin d, whose coordinates start at zero. enorm and frob explicitly compute the Euclidean and Frobenius norms. The ball-support condition in PCS\mathcal P^{CS}PCS secures finite first and second moments; no density is assumed. The goal fixes R≥0R\ge0R≥0, Γ1,Γ2≥0\Gamma_1,\Gamma_2\ge0Γ1​,Γ2​≥0, 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1, and C⊤C=Σ^+Γ2IC^\top C=\hat\Sigma+\Gamma_2IC⊤C=Σ^+Γ2​I. This factor relation makes the quadratic form nonnegative; a separate positive-semidefinite assumption on Σ^\hat\SigmaΣ^ is unnecessary. The matrix need not be triangular because (35) and its support depend on C⊤CC^\top CC⊤C. The uncertainty set's nonemptiness and compactness appear in the goal so the real support-function supremum cannot take Lean's default value for an empty or unbounded set.

Theorem 10's sampling claim is represented by its deterministic criterion for each P∈PCSP\in\mathcal P^{CS}P∈PCS. The confidence-region coverage of Theorem 9 is cited, and the bootstrap coverage discussed on p. 25 is approximate; neither is asserted as an exact probability theorem here. Equation (34) prints an equality for a supremum over PCS\mathcal P^{CS}PCS, yet that region restricts support to a ball, and the page does not establish attainment under that restriction. This mission uses the upper-bound direction needed for Theorem 10 and does not assert the equality or Remark 16's exact equivalence. The scope includes a sharp quantile bound, the exact support formula and the 3/43/43/4 convexity range; a definition that merely makes the claim true by construction would miss these targets. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus, pp. 24–25 and 29.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta and N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; revised in Mathematical Programming 167 (2018), 235–292. arXiv preprint.
  • J. Shawe-Taylor and N. Cristianini, Estimating the Moments of a Random Vector with Applications, 2003. University of Southampton ePrint.
  • G. C. Calafiore and L. El Ghaoui, On Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Linear Programs, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 130 (2006), 1–22. DOI.
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