The Markov Chain Central Limit TheoremResearch Paper
Markov chain Monte Carlo turns hard integration problems into long simulations: to estimate an expectation $E_\pi f$ one runs a Markov chain with stationary distribution $\pi$ and reports the sample average $\bar f_n$. The ergodic theorem guarantees $\bar f_n \to E_\pi f$, but honest error bars require more: a central limit theorem $$\sqrt{n}(\bar f_n - E_\pi f) \to_d N(0, \sigma_f^2).$$ On general state spaces this is famously delicate - a merely ergodic chain with a square-integrable functional can fail the CLT, so the classical theory trades convergence rates (drift, minorization, geometric or polynomial total-variation rates) and mixing conditions ($\alpha$-, $\rho$-, $\varphi$-mixing) against moment conditions on $f$. This mission formalizes G. L. Jones's survey "On the Markov chain central limit theorem" (Probability Surveys, 2004): the drift-condition CLTs of Meyn-Tweedie and Jarner-Roberts, the classical mixing CLTs of Ibragimov-Linnik, Doukhan-Massart-Rio and Billingsley, the characterizations via uniform integrability and boundedness in probability, and their assembly into the summary theorem: six practically checkable regimes - from polynomial ergodicity with bounded functionals to uniform ergodicity with second moments - each of which guarantees the CLT for every initial distribution. The stationarity, total-variation and mixing infrastructure is general state space and reusable well beyond this mission.
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Captain: wenxinzhang
First-passage time of Brownian motion to an exponentially decaying boundaryOpen Problem
# Motivation
A standard Brownian motion starts below the exponentially decaying boundary b(t)=b0 exp(-ct). The first time it crosses the boundary has a continuous density characterized by a generalized Abel--Volterra integral equation. The source asks for an explicit distribution, motivated in part by neuronal threshold models with a decaying refractory boundary.
This mission turns CUHK-Shenzhen AI Math Problem 13, **First-passage time of Brownian motion to an exponentially decaying boundary**, into an auditable Lean campaign. The objective is not merely to transcribe notation: it is to expose the mathematical model, the capstone, and a smaller attack surface as separate artifacts that other formalizers can inspect and reuse.
## Setting
Construct one expression in a fixed elementary language whose evaluation is a continuous nonnegative density on positive times, solves the Abel equation, and integrates to one. The language contains real constants, rational constants, arithmetic, exp, log, square root, trigonometric functions, and the normal density. The first milestone drops elementary representability and normalization and asks for a continuous nonnegative Abel solution.
## Significance
Solving this target would settle the precise finite or analytic core represented by the Lean statement and would create reusable infrastructure in Brownian motion, first-passage times, stochastic processes, Volterra integral equations. Even a rigorous disproof is valuable: several entries in this collection deliberately ask whether an attractive extrapolation is true, and Lean forces a counterexample to satisfy every side condition. The mission therefore treats theorem proving and model criticism as equally legitimate research outcomes.
## Difficulty
Moving-boundary first-passage laws rarely have elementary closed forms. The Abel kernel is singular at the upper endpoint, and showing that a candidate equation solution is the actual passage density requires uniqueness and probability normalization. The capstone may be false under the selected expression language; a non-elementarity theorem would be a legitimate disproof of this precise formal target.
## Suggested attack route
Formalize existence and uniqueness for the Volterra equation using weakly singular kernels, then connect it to Brownian first passage. Explore transformations suggested by the exponential boundary, Laplace transforms, and iterative resolvent kernels. Symbolic or numerical calculations may reveal special-function rather than elementary structure. If so, characterize the required extension of the expression language and prove why the current language is insufficient.
## Formalization scope
The Lean capstone focuses on the analytic density characterization and a deliberately auditable syntax of elementary functions. It does not yet construct Brownian motion or prove Durbin's derivation inside Lean. Real constants are allowed as expression leaves, so the substantive restriction is functional form, not the arithmetic nature of parameters. This interpretation must be considered when evaluating any impossibility claim.
The natural-language source remains authoritative for motivation, while the Lean declaration is authoritative for what Prove2Me will verify. The mission description calls out restrictions where the current formal target is a finite-dimensional core, a fixed interpretation of informal terminology, or one sharpened subquestion from a broader classification problem. Those restrictions should not be silently generalized in a proof claim.
## Milestones
Build a continuous nonnegative solution of the Abel equation, prove uniqueness and unit mass, and only then address elementary closed form.
The capstone is marked as the mission's main item and is never duplicated as a milestone. Definitions precede theorem statements in the proposal order. A milestone is considered complete only when its own exact statement is proved; proving a nearby theorem with stronger-looking prose but mismatched quantifiers, signs, supports, dimensions, or asymptotic constants does not complete it.
## Timeline and literature status
The CUHK-Shenzhen AI Math Problems page added this problem on June 23, 2026. At the drafting date, August 31, 2026, the status and target corrections described above were checked against the source page and the cited primary material.
## Acceptance criteria
A contribution may prove the displayed theorem or refute it by constructing data satisfying every Lean hypothesis while negating the conclusion. Informal changes of model do not count: any proposed correction must be submitted as a separately reviewed statement with an explanation of which source ambiguity or false implication it repairs. Definitions must remain computational or mathematically constrained; fields that simply assume the desired conclusion are not acceptable. Every proof must compile against the mission's pinned Mathlib revision, use no `sorry`, and expose a top-level `theorem solution` when submitted to Prove2Me.
The main theorem is intentionally separated from a smaller milestone. Contributors should preserve that dependency order, publish reusable lemmas rather than monolithic tactics, and report whether a lemma is analytic, algebraic, combinatorial, or infrastructure-only. Numerical evidence, external computer algebra, and exhaustive search are welcome for discovery, but a final certificate must be replayable by Lean. If an external result is invoked, its hypotheses must be represented in the formal statement or proved in the dependency tree.
## Formal verification policy
The files were built locally with Lean 4.30.0 and Mathlib revision `c5ea00351c28e24afc9f0f84379aa41082b1188f`, the supported Prove2Me environment at drafting time. The mission definition file is ordered before all theorem files, and each theorem imports exactly that public definition module or Mathlib. Independent blind read-backs accompany the draft items so reviewers can compare what the Lean code literally says with this mathematical description. Human confirmation remains required before the public proposal can be submitted for moderation.
## Selected references
- [Original CUHK-Shenzhen problem](https://rybindmitry.github.io/problems/13.html)