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Optimization

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Convex OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: naimengye

Robust Optimization X: Globalized Robust Counterparts of Uncertain Conic Problems (retired)Textbook

Motivation

A robust counterpart draws a hard line. Inside the uncertainty set the constraint must hold; outside it, nothing is promised — and in a real problem the perturbation does sometimes land outside. Chapter 3 answered this for linear problems with the globalized robust counterpart: keep the constraint exactly on the normal range Z\mathcal{Z}Z, and let it degrade at a controlled rate outside, proportionally to the distance from Z\mathcal{Z}Z. That mission published Proposition 3.2.1, which says the GRC of an uncertain linear inequality is equivalent to two ordinary robust counterparts.

Chapter 11 of Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui and Nemirovski, Robust Optimization (Princeton, 2009) does the same for conic constraints, and the move is not routine. The left hand side of a conic constraint is a vector, not a scalar, so "the constraint is violated by at most α dist(ζ,Z)\alpha \,\mathrm{dist}(\zeta, \mathcal{Z})αdist(ζ,Z)" has no direct meaning. What replaces it is the observation that a scalar inequality aTy−b≤0a^Ty - b \le 0aTy−b≤0 is the inclusion aTy−b∈Q≡R−a^Ty - b \in \mathbf{Q} \equiv \mathcal{R}_-aTy−b∈Q≡R−​, and that the violation is the distance from the left hand side to Q\mathbf{Q}Q. In that form the notion lifts verbatim, and the whole chapter follows.

Setting

Definition 11.1.2. Consider an uncertain convex constraint

[P0+∑ℓ=1LζℓPℓ]y−[p0+∑ℓ=1Lζℓpℓ] ∈ Q,(11.1.4)\Bigl[P^0 + \sum_{\ell=1}^L \zeta_\ell P^\ell\Bigr]y - \Bigl[p^0 + \sum_{\ell=1}^L \zeta_\ell p^\ell\Bigr] \ \in\ \mathbf{Q}, \tag{11.1.4}[P0+ℓ=1∑L​ζℓ​Pℓ]y−[p0+ℓ=1∑L​ζℓ​pℓ] ∈ Q,(11.1.4)

with Q⊆Rk\mathbf{Q} \subseteq \mathcal{R}^kQ⊆Rk nonempty, closed and convex. Let the perturbation space split as RL=RL1×⋯×RLS\mathcal{R}^L = \mathcal{R}^{L_1}\times\cdots\times\mathcal{R}^{L_S}RL=RL1​×⋯×RLS​, each factor carrying a normal range Zs\mathcal{Z}^sZs, a closed convex cone Ls\mathcal{L}^sLs and a norm ∥⋅∥s\|\cdot\|_s∥⋅∥s​, and let ∥⋅∥Q\|\cdot\|_{\mathbf{Q}}∥⋅∥Q​ be a norm on Rk\mathcal{R}^kRk. A candidate yyy is robust feasible with global sensitivities αs\alpha_sαs​ if

dist(P(y,ζ),Q) ≤ ∑s=1Sαs dist(ζs,Zs∣Ls)∀ ζ∈Z+L,(11.1.6)\mathrm{dist}\bigl(P(y,\zeta), \mathbf{Q}\bigr) \ \le\ \sum_{s=1}^S \alpha_s\, \mathrm{dist}(\zeta^s, \mathcal{Z}^s|\mathcal{L}^s) \qquad \forall\, \zeta \in \mathcal{Z} + \mathcal{L}, \tag{11.1.6}dist(P(y,ζ),Q) ≤ s=1∑S​αs​dist(ζs,Zs∣Ls)∀ζ∈Z+L,(11.1.6)

where dist(u,Q)=min⁡v∈Q∥u−v∥Q\mathrm{dist}(u,\mathbf{Q}) = \min_{v\in\mathbf{Q}}\|u - v\|_{\mathbf{Q}}dist(u,Q)=minv∈Q​∥u−v∥Q​ and dist(ζs,Zs∣Ls)=min⁡{∥ζs−v∥s:v∈Zs, ζs−v∈Ls}\mathrm{dist}(\zeta^s,\mathcal{Z}^s|\mathcal{L}^s) = \min\{\|\zeta^s - v\|_s : v \in \mathcal{Z}^s,\ \zeta^s - v \in \mathcal{L}^s\}dist(ζs,Zs∣Ls)=min{∥ζs−v∥s​:v∈Zs, ζs−v∈Ls}.

The object that makes the analysis work is the recessive cone of Q\mathbf{Q}Q (Definition 11.3.1): for any xˉ∈Q\bar x \in \mathbf{Q}xˉ∈Q,

Rec(Q)={h:xˉ+th∈Q  ∀t≥0},\mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q}) = \{h : \bar x + th \in \mathbf{Q}\ \ \forall t \ge 0\},Rec(Q)={h:xˉ+th∈Q  ∀t≥0},

which does not depend on xˉ\bar xxˉ and is a nonempty closed convex cone.

Formalization targets

Goal — Proposition 11.3.3, the decomposition of the conic GRC

A candidate yyy is feasible for the GRC (11.1.6) if and only if it satisfies the system

(a)[P0+∑ℓζℓPℓ]y−[p0+∑ℓζℓpℓ]∈Q∀ζ∈Z=Z1×⋯×ZS,\text{(a)}\quad \Bigl[P^0 + \sum_\ell \zeta_\ell P^\ell\Bigr]y - \Bigl[p^0 + \sum_\ell \zeta_\ell p^\ell\Bigr] \in \mathbf{Q} \qquad \forall \zeta \in \mathcal{Z} = \mathcal{Z}^1\times \cdots\times\mathcal{Z}^S,(a)[P0+ℓ∑​ζℓ​Pℓ]y−[p0+ℓ∑​ζℓ​pℓ]∈Q∀ζ∈Z=Z1×⋯×ZS, (bs)dist(∑ℓ[Pℓy−pℓ](Esζs)ℓ, Rec(Q)) ≤ αs∀ζs∈Ls with ∥ζs∥s≤1,s=1,…,S.\text{(b}_s)\quad \mathrm{dist}\Bigl(\sum_{\ell} [P^\ell y - p^\ell](E_s\zeta^s)_\ell,\ \mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q})\Bigr) \ \le\ \alpha_s \qquad \forall \zeta^s \in \mathcal{L}^s \text{ with } \|\zeta^s\|_s \le 1, \quad s = 1,\ldots,S .(bs​)dist(ℓ∑​[Pℓy−pℓ](Es​ζs)ℓ​, Rec(Q)) ≤ αs​∀ζs∈Ls with ∥ζs∥s​≤1,s=1,…,S.

Line (a) is the ordinary robust counterpart over the normal range. Each line (bs_ss​) is a bounded semi-infinite constraint — the perturbation ranges over the unit ball of a cone, not over an unbounded set — measuring the distance to the recessive cone rather than to Q\mathbf{Q}Q itself.

Supporting targets

(Def 11.3.1)Rec(Q) is independent of the base point and is a nonempty closed convex cone,\text{(Def 11.3.1)}\quad \mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q}) \text{ is independent of the base point and is a nonempty closed convex cone},(Def 11.3.1)Rec(Q) is independent of the base point and is a nonempty closed convex cone, (Ex 11.3.2)Q bounded⇒Rec(Q)={0};Q a cone⇒Rec(Q)=Q;Rec{u:Au−b∈K}={h:Ah∈K},\text{(Ex 11.3.2)}\quad \mathbf{Q} \text{ bounded} \Rightarrow \mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q}) = \{0\}; \quad \mathbf{Q} \text{ a cone} \Rightarrow \mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q}) = \mathbf{Q}; \quad \mathrm{Rec}\{u : Au - b \in \mathbf{K}\} = \{h : Ah \in \mathbf{K}\},(Ex 11.3.2)Q bounded⇒Rec(Q)={0};Q a cone⇒Rec(Q)=Q;Rec{u:Au−b∈K}={h:Ah∈K}, (Prop 11.4.1)ΨΞ(M)=ΨΞ∗(M∗),Ψ(M)=max⁡{dist∥⋅∥F(Me,KF):e∈KE, ∥e∥E≤1}.\text{(Prop 11.4.1)}\quad \Psi_\Xi(\mathcal{M}) = \Psi_{\Xi_*}(\mathcal{M}^*), \qquad \Psi(\mathcal{M}) = \max\{\mathrm{dist}_{\|\cdot\|_F}(\mathcal{M}e, \mathbf{K}^F) : e \in \mathbf{K}^E,\ \|e\|_E \le 1\} .(Prop 11.4.1)ΨΞ​(M)=ΨΞ∗​​(M∗),Ψ(M)=max{dist∥⋅∥F​​(Me,KF):e∈KE, ∥e∥E​≤1}.

Significance

The goal is the chapter's structural result and it does exactly what Proposition 3.2.1 did one level down: it converts a single semi-infinite constraint over an unbounded perturbation set into a robust counterpart over the bounded normal range plus finitely many constraints over unit balls. That matters because every tractability result of Chapters 6 to 9 is about bounded uncertainty sets; without the decomposition none of them applies to a GRC.

The two halves of the decomposition are genuinely different objects. Line (a) is familiar. Lines (bs_ss​) are not: they measure the distance from a linear image of a ball to the recessive cone, and that is the function

Ψ(M)=max⁡{dist(Me,KF):e∈KE, ∥e∥E≤1}\Psi(\mathcal{M}) = \max\bigl\{\mathrm{dist}(\mathcal{M}e, \mathbf{K}^F) : e \in \mathbf{K}^E,\ \|e\|_E \le 1\bigr\}Ψ(M)=max{dist(Me,KF):e∈KE, ∥e∥E​≤1}

of §11.4, which is almost a norm on linear maps — nonnegative, positively homogeneous, subadditive, but neither symmetric nor strictly positive. Proposition 11.4.1 says this function is self-dual in the precise sense that Ψ\PsiΨ of a map with respect to a setup equals Ψ\PsiΨ of the adjoint map with respect to the dual setup: dual norms, dual cones, source and destination exchanged. That single identity is what lets every bound on Ψ\PsiΨ be computed on whichever side of the duality is tractable, and it is the engine of §11.4's tractability results.

The recessive cone results are the vocabulary. The one that earns its place is Rec{u:Au−b∈K}={h:Ah∈K}\mathrm{Rec}\{u : Au - b \in \mathbf{K}\} = \{h : Ah \in \mathbf{K}\}Rec{u:Au−b∈K}={h:Ah∈K}: the conic sets of this book are all of that form, so it says the recessive cone of every constraint in sight is computed by deleting the constant term.

Difficulty

The goal is an equivalence and the two directions are asymmetric.

Forward — GRC implies the system — is where the recessive cone is discovered rather than used. Fix ζˉ∈Z\bar\zeta \in \mathcal{Z}ζˉ​∈Z and ζs\zeta^sζs in the unit ball of Ls\mathcal{L}^sLs, and run ζi=ζˉ+i ζs\zeta_i = \bar\zeta + i\,\zeta^sζi​=ζˉ​+iζs out along the cone. The GRC bounds the distance to Q\mathbf{Q}Q by αsi\alpha_s iαs​i, so there are qi∈Qq_i \in \mathbf{Q}qi​∈Q with ∥P(y,ζˉ)+iΦ(y)Esζs−qi∥Q≤αsi\|P(y,\bar\zeta) + i\Phi(y)E_s\zeta^s - q_i\|_{\mathbf{Q}} \le \alpha_s i∥P(y,ζˉ​)+iΦ(y)Es​ζs−qi​∥Q​≤αs​i; the rescaled points qi/iq_i/iqi​/i stay bounded, and a limit point of them lies in Rec(Q)\mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q})Rec(Q) by the limit characterization of the recessive cone. This is a genuine compactness argument, and it is why the recessive cone — not Q\mathbf{Q}Q — is what appears in lines (bs_ss​).

Backward is a decomposition-and-assemble: split each ζs=ζˉs+δs\zeta^s = \bar\zeta^s + \delta^sζs=ζˉ​s+δs with ζˉs∈Zs\bar\zeta^s \in \mathcal{Z}^sζˉ​s∈Zs, δs∈Ls\delta^s \in \mathcal{L}^sδs∈Ls realizing the distance, get a point of Q\mathbf{Q}Q from line (a) and a recession direction from each line (bs_ss​), and add them — using that Q+Rec(Q)⊆Q\mathbf{Q} + \mathrm{Rec}(\mathbf{Q}) \subseteq \mathbf{Q}Q+Rec(Q)⊆Q.

Proposition 11.4.1 is a chain of polarity identities: the polar of X+KX + KX+K is Xo∩(−K∗)X^o \cap (-K_*)Xo∩(−K∗​) for compact convex XXX containing the origin, the polar of a norm ball of radius α\alphaα is the dual-norm ball of radius 1/α1/\alpha1/α, and bipolarity. Each step is standard and the composition is not.

Formalization scope

Built on the module published by the third mission of this series, which carries the linear-case globalized robust counterpart and the dual cone. New here: norms as functions with their defining properties, dual norms, the two distances, the recessive cone, the conic GRC, and the function Ψ\PsiΨ.

Conventions committed to:

  • Norms are functions carrying an explicit predicate, not typeclass instances. Chapter 11 quantifies over arbitrary norms ∥⋅∥Q\|\cdot\|_{\mathbf{Q}}∥⋅∥Q​ and ∥⋅∥s\|\cdot\|_s∥⋅∥s​ on fixed coordinate spaces, and a statement must be able to range over them; a typeclass instance would fix one norm per type. IsNormOn bundles definiteness, absolute homogeneity and the triangle inequality, and nonnegativity follows from them.
  • The dual norm is a predicate, not a construction. ∥f∥∗=sup⁡{fTe:∥e∥≤1}\|f\|^* = \sup\{f^Te : \|e\| \le 1\}∥f∥∗=sup{fTe:∥e∥≤1} is asserted as a least upper bound of the set of values, so no supremum is taken on faith.
  • Distances are infima, not minima. The source writes min⁡\minmin, which is correct because the sets are closed; writing inf⁡\infinf avoids carrying an attainment proof into every statement, and agrees with the minimum whenever the source's own hypotheses hold.
  • The recessive cone is indexed by a base point. Definition 11.3.1 defines it at an arbitrary xˉ∈Q\bar x \in \mathbf{Q}xˉ∈Q and then asserts independence of the choice; that assertion is one of the published items, so the definition cannot presuppose it.
  • The perturbation is carried as a family of blocks, ζ=(ζ1,…,ζS)\zeta = (\zeta^1,\ldots,\zeta^S)ζ=(ζ1,…,ζS) with ζs∈RLs\zeta^s \in \mathcal{R}^{L_s}ζs∈RLs​, rather than as a single vector in RL\mathcal{R}^LRL together with the embeddings EsE_sEs​. This is the same data and removes the index bookkeeping of EsE_sEs​ from every statement.
  • Ψ\PsiΨ is a predicate on a real number, as for the dual norm and for the same reason.
  • §11.2 and §11.5 are out of scope: the definition of a tight safe approximation of a GRC and the worked analysis of nonexpansive dynamical systems. The first is a definition the chapter uses only to phrase §11.4's programme, the second an application.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui and A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. Chapter 11, §§11.1, 11.3-11.4, pp. 281-294; Chapter 3 for the linear case. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • A. Ben-Tal, S. Boyd and A. Nemirovski, Extending scope of robust optimization: comprehensive robust counterparts of uncertain problems, Mathematical Programming 107 (2006), 63-89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0679-z
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
10 thms6 active users
Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: ORdos

Smale's Ninth Problem: Strongly Polynomial Linear ProgrammingOpen Problem

The problem of solving linear inequalities

The linear feasibility problem takes a matrix A∈Rm×nA \in \mathbb{R}^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n and a vector b∈Rmb \in \mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm and asks whether the system of mmm linear inequalities in nnn real unknowns

{ x∈Rn∣Ax≥b }  ≠  ∅\{\,x \in \mathbb{R}^n \mid Ax \ge b\,\} \;\ne\; \emptyset{x∈Rn∣Ax≥b}=∅

has a solution. By linear programming duality, optimizing a linear objective over such a set reduces to feasibility, so this decision problem carries the whole complexity of linear programming.

What "polynomial time" means here depends on the machine. In the bit model the input is a list of rational numbers, its size LLL counts the bits of all numerators and denominators, and an algorithm is polynomial if it runs in time poly(m,n,L)\mathrm{poly}(m, n, L)poly(m,n,L). In the real-number model the input is a list of mn+mmn + mmn+m exact real numbers, each arithmetic operation (+,−,×,÷+, -, \times, \div+,−,×,÷), comparison, or memory move costs one unit, and a running time may only depend on mmm and nnn. An algorithm polynomial in this second sense is what Smale asks for; the closely related bit-model notion — poly(m,n)\mathrm{poly}(m,n)poly(m,n) arithmetic operations and polynomially bounded intermediate bit sizes — is called strongly polynomial. This mission fixes the real-number model precisely as a Blum–Shub–Smale (BSS) machine (Blum–Shub–Smale 1989): a finite program of instructions acting on a bi-infinite tape Z→R\mathbb{Z} \to \mathbb{R}Z→R of real registers — loads of arbitrary real machine constants, exact field arithmetic at fixed addresses, two-sided tape shifts, a sign-test branch, and accept/reject — with cost equal to the number of executed instructions. The convention that costs something: the program must be uniform, one finite instruction list serving every mmm, nnn, and every real instance. Uniformity is exactly what separates the question from point-location tricks available to non-uniform families of decision trees.

Why it matters

For optimization, the question is the last gap in the complexity of its central problem. Linear programs with combinatorial structure already admit strongly polynomial algorithms — Tardos (1986) solved every LP whose running time may depend on the entries of AAA but not on bbb or ccc, covering network flows and all {0,±1}\{0,\pm1\}{0,±1}-constraint problems — and a positive answer for general LP would extend that unification to the whole class, while explaining why simplex-type methods behave so well in practice (Spielman–Teng 2004).

For the theory of computation over the reals, the problem is a benchmark for what unit-cost exact arithmetic can do: it is Problem 9 on Smale's list of mathematical problems for the twenty-first century (Smale 1998), posed in the BSS model as the real-number analogue of the P-versus-NP style questions of that program, and it interacts with polyhedral combinatorics through the polynomial Hirsch conjecture: a polynomial bound on polytope diameters is a necessary condition for any polynomial pivot rule. A problem that calibrates both the practice of optimization and the foundations of real computation is a subject, not a special case.

The question and what is known

Question (Smale’s 9th).Is there a uniform BSS program deciding {x∣Ax≥b}≠∅ in poly(m,n) steps?\textbf{Question (Smale's 9th).}\quad \text{Is there a uniform BSS program deciding } \{x \mid Ax \ge b\} \ne \emptyset \text{ in } \mathrm{poly}(m,n) \text{ steps?}Question (Smale’s 9th).Is there a uniform BSS program deciding {x∣Ax≥b}=∅ in poly(m,n) steps?

The timeline splits into a negative branch (lower bounds against algorithm classes) and a positive branch (polynomial algorithms in weaker senses).

Lower bounds. Klee–Minty (1972) constructed a deformed cube on which Dantzig's largest-coefficient simplex rule visits all 2n2^n2n vertices; analogous exponential examples were later found for essentially every deterministic pivot rule, and randomized rules were driven to subexponential lower bounds by Friedmann–Hansen–Zwick (2011) — against upper bounds of exp⁡(O(nlog⁡n))\exp(O(\sqrt{n \log n}))exp(O(nlogn​)) from Kalai (1992) and Matoušek–Sharir–Welzl (1996). On the interior-point side, Allamigeon–Benchimol–Gaubert–Joswig (2018) showed by tropical methods that log-barrier path following is not strongly polynomial, and Allamigeon–Gaubert–Vandame (2022) extended this to every self-concordant barrier: no interior-point method of that class can settle the question positively.

Polynomial algorithms in weaker senses. Khachiyan (1979/80) proved LP feasibility is polynomial in the bit model via the ellipsoid method; Karmarkar (1984) and then Renegar (1988) brought interior-point methods to O(n L)O(\sqrt{n}\,L)O(n​L) iterations. Megiddo (1984) solved LP in linear time for every fixed dimension; Tardos (1986) gave the combinatorial strongly polynomial class; Vavasis–Ye (1996) and Dadush–Huiberts–Natura–Végh (2020) replaced the bit size by condition measures of AAA alone; Ye (2011) proved policy iteration strongly polynomial for fixed-discount Markov decision processes.

The central difficulty is visible in every positive result: each known iteration count is controlled by a scale-dependent quantity — bit length, condition number, barrier curvature — that is unbounded over the real instances with m,nm, nm,n fixed. The naive plan, "run the ellipsoid method and round", fails at its first step in the real model: the number of iterations needed to separate a feasible system from an infeasible one grows with the thinness of the feasible set, which is not a function of (m,n)(m, n)(m,n); no data-independent perturbation ε\varepsilonε exists when the data are arbitrary reals. All results above are proved on paper only; none has a machine-checked proof in the literature. What is already formalized, on this platform, is the substrate this mission builds on: the simplex iteration (mission Introduction to Linear Optimization IV), the ellipsoid method with its volume-halving correctness theorem (XI), interior-point path following (XII), and self-concordance with the barrier method (Convex Optimization VI).

A hierarchy of formalization targets

The mission's milestone list realizes this hierarchy in order; each level states what it deliberately leaves open.

Level 0 — the model works. A uniform BSS program decides one-variable feasibility in linear time:

∃ P, C  ∀m, ∀(a,b)∈Rm×Rm: P decides {x∈R∣aix≥bi ∀i}≠∅ within C(m+1) steps.\exists\,P,\,C\ \ \forall m,\ \forall (a,b) \in \mathbb{R}^m \times \mathbb{R}^m:\ P \text{ decides } \{x \in \mathbb{R} \mid a_i x \ge b_i\ \forall i\} \ne \emptyset \text{ within } C(m{+}1) \text{ steps}.∃P,C  ∀m, ∀(a,b)∈Rm×Rm: P decides {x∈R∣ai​x≥bi​ ∀i}=∅ within C(m+1) steps.

It fixes nothing about n≥2n \ge 2n≥2; its role is to certify that the machine model and cost semantics of the goal are non-vacuous.

Level 1 — the classical method is exponential. On the Klee–Minty cube, Dantzig's rule admits a run of

2n−1 pivots2^n - 1 \text{ pivots}2n−1 pivots

from the all-slack basis to the optimum. It leaves open all other pivot rules — extensions to further rules are welcome as strengthenings.

Level 2 — the bit model succeeds. Through the Cramer–Hadamard solution bound ∣xj∣≤n! Un|x_j| \le n!\,U^n∣xj​∣≤n!Un and the perturbation estimates, Khachiyan's theorem: for integer data bounded by UUU, every admissible ellipsoid run decides feasibility within

t∗≤106 (n+2)4(log⁡2U+n+2) iterations.t^* \le 10^6\,(n{+}2)^4(\log_2 U + n + 2) \text{ iterations}.t∗≤106(n+2)4(log2​U+n+2) iterations.

The generous constants are deliberate — only the polynomial order is load-bearing. This level leaves open exactly the dependence on log⁡U\log UlogU.

Level 3 — the goal (open). A uniform program with data-independent polynomial cost:

∃ P, C, d  ∀m,n,A,b: P decides {x∣Ax≥b}≠∅ within C (mn+m+2)d steps.\exists\,P,\,C,\,d\ \ \forall m, n, A, b:\ P \text{ decides } \{x \mid Ax \ge b\} \ne \emptyset \text{ within } C\,(mn + m + 2)^d \text{ steps}.∃P,C,d  ∀m,n,A,b: P decides {x∣Ax≥b}=∅ within C(mn+m+2)d steps.

The statement asserts only the shape of the truth — no hard-coded degree or constant — so it is stable under every future quantitative improvement. These levels do not exhaust the project: Tardos' combinatorial LP theorem, Ye's fixed-discount MDP result, and impossibility statements for restricted program classes in the style of Allamigeon–Gaubert–Vandame are natural later milestones.

Formalization scope

Polyhedra, simplex states, pivots, and ellipsoid runs are the platform's existing LinearOptimization development over Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, with {x∣Ax≥b}\{x \mid Ax \ge b\}{x∣Ax≥b} as polyhedron A b; algorithms with data-dependent iteration counts are formalized as run predicates, as in the parent missions. The new SmaleNinth definitions supply what the goal genuinely needs and the run-predicate style cannot express: a concrete inductive type of BSS programs with operational semantics and unit-cost accounting, the Klee–Minty data with Dantzig's rule, and the explicit Khachiyan constants. One convention closes the degenerate escape hatch: the goal quantifies over finite BSSProgram terms under the fixed encodeLP input convention — formalizing "algorithm" as an arbitrary function Rmn+m→Bool\mathbb{R}^{mn+m} \to \mathrm{Bool}Rmn+m→Bool would make the statement trivially true and is not the theorem. Division is totalized as x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0 and the branch test is xi≤0x_i \le 0xi​≤0; both are benign for the class of programs quantified over.

The machine module is infrastructure beyond this mission — any real-number complexity statement (other Smale problems, sums-of-square-roots, BSS-completeness) can reuse it, as can any pivot-rule lower bound reuse the Klee–Minty module. Formalization forces distinctions the literature leaves informal: which machine variant carries the unit-cost claim, how ties in Dantzig's rule are resolved, and which of the interchangeable Khachiyan constants each estimate actually needs. Welcome contributions include proofs of any milestone, alternative exponential instances for other pivot rules, sharper constants in the Khachiyan module, and ports of the known strongly polynomial special cases.

Selected references

  • L. Blum, M. Shub, S. Smale, On a theory of computation and complexity over the real numbers, Bull. AMS 21(1):1–46, 1989. DOI
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, Math. Intelligencer 20(2):7–15, 1998. DOI
  • V. Klee, G. J. Minty, How good is the simplex algorithm?, in Inequalities III, Academic Press, 1972, pp. 159–175.
  • L. G. Khachiyan, Polynomial algorithms in linear programming, USSR Comput. Math. Math. Phys. 20:53–72, 1980. DOI
  • N. Karmarkar, A new polynomial-time algorithm for linear programming, Combinatorica 4:373–395, 1984. DOI
  • J. Renegar, A polynomial-time algorithm, based on Newton's method, for linear programming, Math. Programming 40:59–93, 1988. DOI
  • É. Tardos, A strongly polynomial algorithm to solve combinatorial linear programs, Oper. Res. 34(2):250–256, 1986. DOI
  • N. Megiddo, Linear programming in linear time when the dimension is fixed, J. ACM 31(1):114–127, 1984. DOI
  • G. Kalai, A subexponential randomized simplex algorithm, STOC 1992. DOI
  • O. Friedmann, T. D. Hansen, U. Zwick, Subexponential lower bounds for randomized pivoting rules for the simplex algorithm, STOC 2011. DOI
  • D. A. Spielman, S.-H. Teng, Smoothed analysis of algorithms: why the simplex algorithm usually takes polynomial time, J. ACM 51(3):385–463, 2004. DOI
  • S. A. Vavasis, Y. Ye, A primal-dual interior point method whose running time depends only on the constraint matrix, Math. Programming 74:79–120, 1996. DOI
  • Y. Ye, The simplex and policy-iteration methods are strongly polynomial for the Markov decision problem with a fixed discount rate, Math. Oper. Res. 36(4):593–603, 2011. DOI
  • X. Allamigeon, P. Benchimol, S. Gaubert, M. Joswig, Log-barrier interior point methods are not strongly polynomial, SIAM J. Appl. Algebra Geom. 2(1):140–178, 2018. DOI
  • X. Allamigeon, S. Gaubert, N. Vandame, No self-concordant barrier interior point method is strongly polynomial, STOC 2022. arXiv
  • D. Dadush, S. Huiberts, B. Natura, L. A. Végh, A scaling-invariant algorithm for linear programming whose running time depends only on the constraint matrix, STOC 2020. arXiv
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997 (Chapters 3, 8, 9 — formalized in the Introduction to Linear Optimization mission series).
  • B. Korte, J. Vygen, Combinatorial Optimization: Theory and Algorithms, 6th ed., Springer, 2018, §4.1–4.5.
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Information TheoryProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Optimization: A Review: Variation²/4 ≤ Hellinger ≤ Kullback–Leibler ≤ J-Divergence, so the J, KL and Hellinger Balls of Radius ε Lie in the Variation Ball of Radius 2√εResearch Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization evaluates a decision against a set of plausible probability laws rather than against a single estimated law. A common way to specify that set is to choose a nominal law P0P_0P0​ and allow every law PPP whose discrepancy from P0P_0P0​ is below a radius ε\varepsilonε. Different discrepancies produce different ambiguity sets, so comparing them tells a modeler what one constraint guarantees about another. Rahimian and Mehrotra collect such constructions in their survey and state a chain of comparisons among variation, Hellinger, Kullback–Leibler, and J-divergences in Lemma 5.4 (arXiv:1908.05659v1, pp. 31, 34–35). The chain connects four common ways of controlling model error without requiring a finite outcome space or a common density chosen in advance.

The source is the 2019 arXiv v1 preprint of a survey. Its proof of Lemma 5.4 cites earlier work rather than giving a full derivation. The preprint also prints an additional J-to-χ2\chi^2χ2 comparison that is false; this mission isolates the part that holds for every pair of probability measures. The distinction matters when an ambiguity set is used to certify a bound under a different divergence: an inclusion based on the false link can certify laws that are outside the intended set.

Setting

Let (Ξ,F)(\Xi,\mathcal F)(Ξ,F) be a measurable space, and let M(Ξ,F)\mathfrak M(\Xi,\mathcal F)M(Ξ,F) be its probability measures. Given P1,P2∈M(Ξ,F)P_1,P_2\in\mathfrak M(\Xi,\mathcal F)P1​,P2​∈M(Ξ,F), a ϕ\phiϕ-divergence Dϕ(P1,P2)\mathfrak D^\phi(P_1,P_2)Dϕ(P1​,P2​) compares their densities using a function ϕ:[0,∞)→[0,∞]\phi:[0,\infty)\to[0,\infty]ϕ:[0,∞)→[0,∞] with ϕ(1)=0\phi(1)=0ϕ(1)=0. The paper assumes ϕ\phiϕ is convex. To account for measures that are not mutually absolutely continuous, take the common dominating measure ν=P1+P2\nu=P_1+P_2ν=P1​+P2​ and write p=dP1/dνp=dP_1/d\nup=dP1​/dν and q=dP2/dνq=dP_2/d\nuq=dP2​/dν. The integrand is qϕ(p/q)q\phi(p/q)qϕ(p/q) when q>0q>0q>0 and pϕ′(∞)p\phi'(\infty)pϕ′(∞) when q=0q=0q=0, where ϕ′(∞)=lim⁡t→∞ϕ(t)/t\phi'(\infty)=\lim_{t\to\infty}\phi(t)/tϕ′(∞)=limt→∞​ϕ(t)/t; a point with p=q=0p=q=0p=q=0 contributes zero (§5.1.2, p. 31).

Table 1 gives four generators used here:

ϕv(t)=∣t−1∣,ϕh(t)=(t−1)2,ϕkl(t)=tlog⁡t−t+1,ϕj(t)=(t−1)log⁡t.\phi_v(t)=|t-1|,\qquad \phi_h(t)=(\sqrt t-1)^2,\qquad \phi_{\mathrm{kl}}(t)=t\log t-t+1,\qquad \phi_j(t)=(t-1)\log t.ϕv​(t)=∣t−1∣,ϕh​(t)=(t​−1)2,ϕkl​(t)=tlogt−t+1,ϕj​(t)=(t−1)logt.

The first two divergences are the full L1L^1L1 variation discrepancy and the unhalved squared Hellinger discrepancy. In particular, Dϕv=2dTV\mathfrak D^{\phi_v}=2d_{\mathrm{TV}}Dϕv​=2dTV​, where dTVd_{\mathrm{TV}}dTV​ is the total variation distance defined later in the paper. The J generator has ϕj(0)=+∞\phi_j(0)=+\inftyϕj​(0)=+∞, understood as its limit at zero; ϕkl(0)=1\phi_{\mathrm{kl}}(0)=1ϕkl​(0)=1 under 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0. The recession slopes of the four generators, in the displayed order, are 1,1,+∞,+∞1,1,+\infty,+\infty1,1,+∞,+∞ (Table 1, p. 31; §5.1.3, p. 35).

For a nominal probability measure P0P_0P0​ and a nonnegative radius ε\varepsilonε, equation (5.9) defines the ambiguity ball

Pϕ(P0;ε)={P∈M(Ξ,F):Dϕ(P,P0)≤ε}.\mathcal P^\phi(P_0;\varepsilon) =\{P\in\mathfrak M(\Xi,\mathcal F):\mathfrak D^\phi(P,P_0)\le\varepsilon\}.Pϕ(P0​;ε)={P∈M(Ξ,F):Dϕ(P,P0​)≤ε}.

Formalization targets

The three milestone comparisons are the valid initial part of (5.10), for every P,P0∈M(Ξ,F)P,P_0\in\mathfrak M(\Xi,\mathcal F)P,P0​∈M(Ξ,F):

14(Dϕv(P,P0))2≤Dϕh(P,P0)≤Dϕkl(P,P0)≤Dϕj(P,P0).\frac14\bigl(\mathfrak D^{\phi_v}(P,P_0)\bigr)^2 \le\mathfrak D^{\phi_h}(P,P_0) \le\mathfrak D^{\phi_{\mathrm{kl}}}(P,P_0) \le\mathfrak D^{\phi_j}(P,P_0).41​(Dϕv​(P,P0​))2≤Dϕh​(P,P0​)≤Dϕkl​(P,P0​)≤Dϕj​(P,P0​).

The middle comparison is also stated in footnote 18. The mission goal is the corrected Lemma 5.4: it joins these three comparisons to the resulting valid part of (5.11), for every nominal P0P_0P0​ and radius ε\varepsilonε:

Pϕj(P0;ε)⊆Pϕkl(P0;ε)⊆Pϕh(P0;ε)⊆Pϕv(P0;2ε).\mathcal P^{\phi_j}(P_0;\varepsilon) \subseteq\mathcal P^{\phi_{\mathrm{kl}}}(P_0;\varepsilon) \subseteq\mathcal P^{\phi_h}(P_0;\varepsilon) \subseteq\mathcal P^{\phi_v}(P_0;2\sqrt\varepsilon).Pϕj​(P0​;ε)⊆Pϕkl​(P0​;ε)⊆Pϕh​(P0​;ε)⊆Pϕv​(P0​;2ε​).

Each inclusion has the direction induced by the preceding divergence inequality: a stronger divergence constraint gives a smaller ball. The first comparison retains the paper's factor 1/41/41/4, and the final ball retains its radius 2ε2\sqrt\varepsilon2ε​ (Lemma 5.4, p. 34).

Significance

The result allows a J-divergence or KL-divergence ambiguity model to carry a simultaneous bound in Hellinger and full variation divergence. A Hellinger radius ε\varepsilonε yields the explicit variation radius 2ε2\sqrt\varepsilon2ε​; this makes the scale change visible when comparing two models built with different discrepancies. Without a general-measure statement, a finite-outcome approximation does not itself cover continuous laws or pairs with a singular component.

The paper presents the inequalities as known and cites sources for them. A finite-alphabet TV–Hellinger–KL chain and a general-measure KL–affinity bound already have machine-checked results in the platform catalog. The work here is to formalize the four generators with one shared general-measure divergence, close the remaining inequalities in that representation, and connect them to the ambiguity-ball inclusions. This also provides reusable definitions for other distributionally robust models that use the same divergence convention.

Difficulty

Writing the density ratio only with respect to P0P_0P0​ loses the part of PPP singular to P0P_0P0​. That would change both variation and Hellinger divergence and make the stated chain an unreliable comparison of the paper's objects. At the opposite boundary, PPP can vanish on a set that P0P_0P0​ charges. There the J generator must be infinite, although a direct use of a total real logarithm at zero can assign it an incorrect finite value. These two edge cases make an apparently routine pointwise comparison insufficient for the full measurable-space theorem.

Formalization scope

Lean represents PPP and P0P_0P0​ as ProbabilityMeasure Ξ on an arbitrary MeasurableSpace Ξ. It computes Radon–Nikodym densities relative to P+P0P+P_0P+P0​, evaluates the divergence with an extended nonnegative Lebesgue integral, and represents both divergence values and radii in ENNReal. The generic definition computes the recession slope as a limsup; for the four Table 1 generators this is the limit in the paper. The formal ambiguity ball contains probability measures only. A top radius is allowed by the type; the finite nonnegative radii are the paper's intended model parameters. The generic operation does not take a convexity certificate, but the four named generators are the only ones used in the theorem.

The formalization must not turn a nondominated pair into divergence zero or assign ϕj(0)=0\phi_j(0)=0ϕj​(0)=0: either choice changes the claimed chain. It must also retain the full variation divergence, without the half factor used for total variation distance. The definitions of the common-measure divergence, its four generators, and the ambiguity ball are intended for reuse. Contributions establishing properties of the recession slopes, comparison lemmas on arbitrary measurable spaces, and their ambiguity-set consequences are within scope.

The paper's final inequality in (5.10), Dϕj≤Dϕca2\mathfrak D^{\phi_j}\le\mathfrak D^{\phi_{\mathrm{ca}^2}}Dϕj​≤Dϕca2​, and the associated first inclusion in (5.11) are removed. They are false even on a two-point space: with P0=(1/2,1/2)P_0=(1/2,1/2)P0​=(1/2,1/2) and P=(0,1)P=(0,1)P=(0,1), J-divergence is +∞+\infty+∞ while the order-two χ\chiχ-divergence is 111. Thus PPP lies in the latter ball of radius 111 but outside the J ball of that radius. The source's footnote 18 separately notes an error in a cited Hellinger–KL comparison; the corrected Hellinger–KL inequality is retained (pp. 34–35).

Selected references

  • H. Rahimian and S. Mehrotra, Distributionally Robust Optimization: A Review, arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.05659v1, 2019. Preprint.
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A First-Order Approach to Accelerated Value Iteration 2: For a Reversible Policy Chain, Momentum Value Computation Converges at Rate (1 − √(1/κ))/(1 + √(1/κ)) + η for Every η > 0Research Paper

Why accelerate value computation

Value iteration and its policy-evaluation special case, value computation, are the basic algorithms of dynamic programming for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Both are fixed-point iterations of a λ\lambdaλ-contraction, so they converge at the geometric rate λ\lambdaλ, the discount factor. When λ\lambdaλ is close to 111, which is the regime of long effective horizons in reinforcement learning (λ=0.99\lambda = 0.99λ=0.99 or 0.9990.9990.999) and in healthcare and operations applications, the number of iterations grows like 1/(1−λ)1/(1-\lambda)1/(1−λ).

Goyal and Grand-Clément (arXiv:1905.09963, Operations Research 2023) observe that v↦v−T(v)v \mapsto v - T(v)v↦v−T(v) behaves like the gradient of a function with smoothness constant 1+λ1+\lambda1+λ and strong-convexity constant 1−λ1-\lambda1−λ. This suggests importing the accelerated schemes of convex optimization: Nesterov's acceleration and Polyak's momentum (heavy-ball) method (Polyak 1964; Ghadimi, Feyzmahdavian, Johansson 2015). For the affine operator TπT_\piTπ​ of a fixed policy, they prove that both schemes converge at a rate governed by κ\sqrt{\kappa}κ​ rather than κ\kappaκ, with κ=(1+λ)/(1−λ)\kappa = (1+\lambda)/(1-\lambda)κ=(1+λ)/(1−λ), provided the Markov chain of the policy is irreducible and reversible. This mission poses the momentum result, Theorem 5.5.

Setting

A finite MDP has a state set SSS with ∣S∣=n|S| = n∣S∣=n, a finite action set AAA, transition probabilities PiajP_{iaj}Piaj​ (from state iii to state jjj under action aaa; each PiaP_{ia}Pia​ is a probability vector), rewards ria∈Rr_{ia} \in \mathbb{R}ria​∈R, and a discount factor λ∈(0,1)\lambda \in (0,1)λ∈(0,1). A policy π=(πia)\pi = (\pi_{ia})π=(πia​) is a matrix with nonnegative rows summing to 111; it induces

rπ,i=∑aπiaria,Lπ,ij=∑aπiaPiaj,Tπ(v)=rπ+λLπv.r_{\pi,i} = \sum_a \pi_{ia} r_{ia}, \qquad L_{\pi,ij} = \sum_a \pi_{ia} P_{iaj}, \qquad T_\pi(v) = r_\pi + \lambda L_\pi v .rπ,i​=a∑​πia​ria​,Lπ,ij​=a∑​πia​Piaj​,Tπ​(v)=rπ​+λLπ​v.

The value function of π\piπ is vπ=∑t≥0λtLπtrπv^\pi = \sum_{t \ge 0} \lambda^t L_\pi^t r_\pivπ=∑t≥0​λtLπt​rπ​, the expected discounted reward from each starting state; it is the unique fixed point of TπT_\piTπ​.

Reversibility (Definition 2.1): the chain with transition matrix LLL is irreducible, and it has a stationary probability distribution ν\nuν with νiLij=νjLji\nu_i L_{ij} = \nu_j L_{ji}νi​Lij​=νj​Lji​ for all i,ji,ji,j.

Momentum Value Computation (M-VC) starts from arbitrary v0,v1∈Rnv_0, v_1 \in \mathbb{R}^nv0​,v1​∈Rn and iterates

vs+1=vs−α (vs−Tπ(vs))+β (vs−vs−1),s≥1,v_{s+1} = v_s - \alpha\,(v_s - T_\pi(v_s)) + \beta\,(v_s - v_{s-1}), \qquad s \ge 1,vs+1​=vs​−α(vs​−Tπ​(vs​))+β(vs​−vs−1​),s≥1,

with the constant step sizes (4.2)

α=21+1−λ2,β=1−1−λ21+1−λ2.\alpha = \frac{2}{1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}}, \qquad \beta = \frac{1-\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}}{1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}} .α=1+1−λ2​2​,β=1+1−λ2​1−1−λ2​​.

The analysis runs through the 2n×2n2n \times 2n2n×2n matrix

Bπ=(λ(β+1)Lπ−βII0),B_\pi = \begin{pmatrix} \lambda(\beta+1)L_\pi & -\beta I \\ I & 0 \end{pmatrix},Bπ​=(λ(β+1)Lπ​I​−βI0​),

which propagates the error of the pair xs=(vs,vs−1)x_s = (v_s, v_{s-1})xs​=(vs​,vs−1​), and its spectral radius ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​), the largest modulus of a complex eigenvalue.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.5

For a valid MDP and a policy π\piπ whose chain LπL_\piLπ​ is irreducible and reversible, the M-VC iterates with step sizes (4.2) converge to vπv^\pivπ, and for every η>0\eta > 0η>0

vs=vπ+o ⁣((1−1/κ1+1/κ+η)s),0<1−1/κ1+1/κ<λ.v_s = v^\pi + o\!\left(\left(\frac{1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}}{1+\sqrt{1/\kappa}} + \eta\right)^{s}\right), \qquad 0 < \frac{1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}}{1+\sqrt{1/\kappa}} < \lambda .vs​=vπ+o((1+1/κ​1−1/κ​​+η)s),0<1+1/κ​1−1/κ​​<λ.

The goal states the paper's three clauses as printed: convergence, the little-o rate for every η>0\eta > 0η>0, and the comparison with λ\lambdaλ.

Milestones

  1. The step-size identity α=1+β\alpha = 1 + \betaα=1+β (proof of Lemma B.1).
  2. Lemma B.1: xs=xπ+Bπs−1(x1−xπ)x_s = x^\pi + B_\pi^{s-1}(x_1 - x^\pi)xs​=xπ+Bπs−1​(x1​−xπ) for all s≥1s \ge 1s≥1, with xπ=(vπ,vπ)x^\pi = (v^\pi, v^\pi)xπ=(vπ,vπ).
  3. The eigenvalues of an irreducible, reversible transition matrix are real (§2).
  4. (B.1): every eigenvalue ω\omegaω of BπB_\piBπ​ satisfies ω2−2λμ1+1−λ2ω+1−1−λ21+1−λ2=0\omega^2 - \frac{2\lambda\mu}{1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}}\omega + \frac{1-\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}}{1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}} = 0ω2−1+1−λ2​2λμ​ω+1+1−λ2​1−1−λ2​​=0 for an eigenvalue μ\muμ of LπL_\piLπ​.
  5. For μ∈[−1,1]\mu \in [-1,1]μ∈[−1,1], the roots ω±(μ)\omega^\pm(\mu)ω±(μ) of (B.1) have modulus λ/(1+1−λ2)\lambda/(1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2})λ/(1+1−λ2​).
  6. The identity λ1+1−λ2=1+λ−1−λ1+λ+1−λ=1−1/κ1+1/κ\frac{\lambda}{1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2}} = \frac{\sqrt{1+\lambda}-\sqrt{1-\lambda}}{\sqrt{1+\lambda}+\sqrt{1-\lambda}} = \frac{1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}}{1+\sqrt{1/\kappa}}1+1−λ2​λ​=1+λ​+1−λ​1+λ​−1−λ​​=1+1/κ​1−1/κ​​.
  7. Lemma B.2: for a reversible chain, ρ(Bπ)=1−1/κ1+1/κ\rho(B_\pi) = \frac{1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}}{1+\sqrt{1/\kappa}}ρ(Bπ​)=1+1/κ​1−1/κ​​.
  8. 0<1−1/κ1+1/κ<λ0 < \frac{1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}}{1+\sqrt{1/\kappa}} < \lambda0<1+1/κ​1−1/κ​​<λ for λ∈(0,1)\lambda \in (0,1)λ∈(0,1).

Significance

The rate (1−1/κ)/(1+1/κ)(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})/(1+\sqrt{1/\kappa})(1−1/κ​)/(1+1/κ​) is the optimal rate of the heavy-ball method on strongly convex quadratics with condition number κ\kappaκ. Theorem 5.5 shows that policy evaluation for reversible chains enjoys the same improvement over λ\lambdaλ, so that an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximation of vπv^\pivπ needs a number of iterations scaling like 1/1−λ1/\sqrt{1-\lambda}1/1−λ​ rather than 1/(1−λ)1/(1-\lambda)1/(1−λ). The paper also shows that the reversibility assumption cannot simply be dropped: on a cyclic chain both accelerated schemes may diverge. Lemma B.2 is an exact spectral computation for a structured block matrix that reappears in any heavy-ball analysis driven by a matrix with real spectrum in [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1].

The paper is a sibling series of four missions. This one poses Theorem 5.5; the others pose Theorem 5.1 (Accelerated Value Computation), Theorem 6.3 (a lower bound for first-order methods on a chain MDP) and Theorem 7.1 (Safe Accelerated Value Iteration). The results are proved on paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The work here is to formalize the known argument: the linear-recursion representation, the spectrum of BπB_\piBπ​, and the passage from spectral radius to a little-o rate.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds ∥Bπ∥\|B_\pi\|∥Bπ​∥ in some norm and iterates. No such bound by the rate holds in general: BπB_\piBπ​ is not normal, and for eigenvalues μ=±1\mu = \pm 1μ=±1 of LπL_\piLπ​ the two roots of (B.1) coincide, producing Jordan blocks. The rate must come from the spectral radius, and the gap between ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) and ∥Bπs∥1/s\|B_\pi^s\|^{1/s}∥Bπs​∥1/s is exactly what the +η+\eta+η absorbs. Computing ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) needs two separate facts: the eigenvalues of BπB_\piBπ​ are tied to those of LπL_\piLπ​ through the quadratic (B.1), which needs a determinant identity for block matrices with commuting blocks; and the eigenvalues of LπL_\piLπ​ are real and lie in [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], which needs reversibility together with irreducibility, used to make the stationary distribution positive. For non-real μ\muμ the modulus computation fails, which is why the hypothesis cannot be dropped.

Formalization scope

States and actions are finite types. The MDP data (P,r,λ)(P, r, \lambda)(P,r,λ) is a plain structure, with validity (stochastic PiaP_{ia}Pia​, 0<λ<10 < \lambda < 10<λ<1) a separate hypothesis; the paper's initial distribution p0p_0p0​ plays no role and is omitted. The value function is the Neumann series ∑tλtLπtrπ\sum_t \lambda^t L_\pi^t r_\pi∑t​λtLπt​rπ​. The norm on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is the sup norm, and o(⋅)o(\cdot)o(⋅) is with respect to it as s→∞s \to \inftys→∞. Spectra and spectral radii are those of the complexified matrices, so that the non-real eigenvalues of BπB_\piBπ​ are seen. Reversibility uses the published mm_basic notions: irreducibility, a stationary probability distribution, and detailed balance with respect to it; detailed balance alone would be trivially satisfied by ν=0\nu = 0ν=0 and is not used.

Three printed slips are corrected, and each milestone keeps the printed text verbatim. Lemma B.1 is printed with x0−xπx_0 - x^\pix0​−xπ, but x0=(v0,v−1)x_0 = (v_0, v_{-1})x0​=(v0​,v−1​) is undefined; the statement uses x1=(v1,v0)x_1 = (v_1, v_0)x1​=(v1​,v0​). Lemma B.2 prints ρ(Bπ)=(1−κ)/(1+κ)\rho(B_\pi) = (1-\sqrt\kappa)/(1+\sqrt\kappa)ρ(Bπ​)=(1−κ​)/(1+κ​), a negative number; its proof computes (1−1/κ)/(1+1/κ)(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})/(1+\sqrt{1/\kappa})(1−1/κ​)/(1+1/κ​), the rate of Theorem 5.5, which is stated. On p. 22 the constant λ/(1+1−λ2)\lambda/(1+\sqrt{1-\lambda^2})λ/(1+1−λ2​) is printed as λ/(1+1−λ)2\lambda/(1+\sqrt{1-\lambda})^2λ/(1+1−λ​)2. The second step size, printed γ\gammaγ in (4.2), is the β\betaβ of (M-VC) and App. B.

A statement that holds only vacuously, for example one in which reversibility is replaced by detailed balance with an arbitrary vector or in which λ\lambdaλ is unconstrained, is ruled out by the hypotheses above. Lemma B.2 is an equality and must not be weakened to an upper bound.

A complete development needs the determinant of a 2×22\times 22×2 block matrix with commuting blocks, the reality of the spectrum of a reversible chain (implied by the published MarkovMixing.spectral_representation once the stationary distribution is shown positive), Gelfand's formula for matrices, and the convergence of the Neumann series. The spectral facts about reversible chains and the block-matrix spectrum are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • V. Goyal and J. Grand-Clément, A First-Order Approach to Accelerated Value Iteration, Operations Research, 2023; arXiv:1905.09963v7 (2021). https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09963
  • B. T. Polyak, Some methods of speeding up the convergence of iteration methods, USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics 4(5), 1964. https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-5553(64)90137-5
  • E. Ghadimi, H. R. Feyzmahdavian, M. Johansson, Global convergence of the Heavy-ball method for convex optimization, European Control Conference, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.7457
  • P. Brémaud, Markov Chains: Gibbs Fields, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Queues, Springer, 2nd ed. 2020 (cited in the paper as 2013), Chapter 6. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45982-6
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A First-Order Approach to Accelerated Value Iteration 1: For a Reversible Policy Chain, Accelerated Value Computation Converges at Rate 1 − √((1−λ)/(1+λ)) + η for Every η > 0Research Paper

Motivation

Value iteration is the standard method for solving a discounted Markov decision process (MDP), and its policy-evaluation variant, value computation (VC), computes the value of a fixed policy by iterating an affine contraction. Both converge geometrically at rate λ\lambdaλ, the discount factor. When λ\lambdaλ is close to one, as in long-horizon reinforcement-learning benchmarks (λ=0.99\lambda = 0.99λ=0.99 or 0.9990.9990.999), the number of iterations grows like 1/(1−λ)1/(1-\lambda)1/(1−λ), and each iteration costs a full sweep over states and actions.

In convex optimization, gradient descent on a μ\muμ-strongly convex, LLL-smooth function has the same kind of rate, and Nesterov's acceleration improves the dependence on the condition number κ=L/μ\kappa = L/\muκ=L/μ from κ\kappaκ to κ\sqrt\kappaκ​. Goyal and Grand-Clément (arXiv:1905.09963, Operations Research 2023) read v−T(v)v - T(v)v−T(v) as a gradient with "strong convexity" 1−λ1-\lambda1−λ and "smoothness" 1+λ1+\lambda1+λ, transfer Nesterov's and Polyak's step sizes to value iteration, and ask when the transferred methods are actually faster. This mission covers the first answer they give: for policy evaluation on a reversible chain, the accelerated scheme converges at a rate of order 1−1−λ1-\sqrt{1-\lambda}1−1−λ​ instead of λ\lambdaλ.

Setting

An MDP has a finite set of states S\mathbb SS with ∣S∣=n|\mathbb S| = n∣S∣=n, a finite set of actions A\mathbb AA, transition probabilities PiajP_{iaj}Piaj​ (from state iii to state jjj under action aaa; each Pia⋅P_{ia\cdot}Pia⋅​ is a probability distribution), real rewards riar_{ia}ria​, and a discount factor λ∈(0,1)\lambda \in (0,1)λ∈(0,1). A policy π\piπ assigns to every state iii a probability distribution πi⋅\pi_{i\cdot}πi⋅​ over actions. It induces the reward vector rπ,i=∑aπiariar_{\pi,i} = \sum_a \pi_{ia} r_{ia}rπ,i​=∑a​πia​ria​, the transition matrix Lπ,ij=∑aπiaPiajL_{\pi,ij} = \sum_a \pi_{ia}P_{iaj}Lπ,ij​=∑a​πia​Piaj​, the policy operator Tπ(v)=rπ+λLπvT_\pi(v) = r_\pi + \lambda L_\pi vTπ​(v)=rπ​+λLπ​v, and the value function

vπ=∑t≥0λtLπtrπ,v^\pi = \sum_{t\ge0}\lambda^t L_\pi^t r_\pi,vπ=t≥0∑​λtLπt​rπ​,

the expected discounted reward when actions are drawn from π\piπ. VC iterates vs+1=Tπ(vs)v_{s+1} = T_\pi(v_s)vs+1​=Tπ​(vs​).

Accelerated Value Computation (A-VC) starts from arbitrary v0,v1∈Rnv_0, v_1 \in \mathbb R^nv0​,v1​∈Rn and sets, for s≥1s \ge 1s≥1,

hs=vs+γ (vs−vs−1),vs+1=hs−α (hs−Tπ(hs)),h_s = v_s + \gamma\,(v_s - v_{s-1}),\qquad v_{s+1} = h_s - \alpha\,\big(h_s - T_\pi(h_s)\big),hs​=vs​+γ(vs​−vs−1​),vs+1​=hs​−α(hs​−Tπ​(hs​)),

with the constant step sizes α=1/(1+λ)\alpha = 1/(1+\lambda)α=1/(1+λ) and γ=(1−1−λ2)/λ\gamma = (1-\sqrt{1-\lambda^2})/\lambdaγ=(1−1−λ2​)/λ. Write κ=(1+λ)/(1−λ)\kappa = (1+\lambda)/(1-\lambda)κ=(1+λ)/(1−λ).

A transition matrix LLL is reversible if it is irreducible (every state reaches every other with positive probability in some number of steps) and has a stationary probability distribution ν\nuν satisfying detailed balance, νiLij=νjLji\nu_iL_{ij} = \nu_jL_{ji}νi​Lij​=νj​Lji​ for all i,ji, ji,j.

The analysis runs through the 2n×2n2n\times2n2n×2n matrix

Bπ=[(1−1/κ)(I+Lπ)−12(1−1/κ)2(I+Lπ)I0],B_\pi = \begin{bmatrix}(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})(I+L_\pi) & -\tfrac12(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})^2(I+L_\pi)\\ I & 0\end{bmatrix},Bπ​=[(1−1/κ​)(I+Lπ​)I​−21​(1−1/κ​)2(I+Lπ​)0​],

whose powers propagate the stacked error xs−xπx_s - x^\pixs​−xπ, where xs=(vs,vs−1)x_s = (v_s, v_{s-1})xs​=(vs​,vs−1​) and xπ=(vπ,vπ)x^\pi = (v^\pi, v^\pi)xπ=(vπ,vπ). Its spectral radius ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) is the largest modulus of a complex eigenvalue.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

If LπL_\piLπ​ is irreducible and reversible, then vs→vπv_s \to v^\pivs​→vπ, and for every η>0\eta > 0η>0

vs=vπ+o((1−1/κ+η)s),0<1−1/κ<λ.v_s = v^\pi + o\Big(\big(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}+\eta\big)^s\Big),\qquad 0 < 1-\sqrt{1/\kappa} < \lambda.vs​=vπ+o((1−1/κ​+η)s),0<1−1/κ​<λ.

The goal is stated with the η\etaη slack because the iteration matrix has a defective leading eigenvalue: the error is of exact order s (1−1/κ)ss\,(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})^ss(1−1/κ​)s in general, so a clean O((1−1/κ)s)O\big((1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})^s\big)O((1−1/κ​)s) bound is false.

Milestones

  1. The step-size identities of the proof of Lemma 5.2: 1+1/κ−2α=01+1/\kappa-2\alpha=01+1/κ−2α=0, (1−α)(1+γ)=αλ(1+γ)=1−1/κ(1-\alpha)(1+\gamma)=\alpha\lambda(1+\gamma)=1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}(1−α)(1+γ)=αλ(1+γ)=1−1/κ​, αγλ=(1−α)γ=α−1/κ=12(1−1/κ)2\alpha\gamma\lambda=(1-\alpha)\gamma=\alpha-\sqrt{1/\kappa}=\tfrac12(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})^2αγλ=(1−α)γ=α−1/κ​=21​(1−1/κ​)2.
  2. Lemma 5.2: xs=xπ+Bπs−1(x1−xπ)x_s = x^\pi + B_\pi^{s-1}(x_1-x^\pi)xs​=xπ+Bπs−1​(x1​−xπ) for all s≥1s\ge1s≥1.
  3. The eigenvalues of a reversible transition matrix are real (§2, p. 4).
  4. Sp⁡(Lπ)⊂[−1,1]\operatorname{Sp}(L_\pi)\subset[-1,1]Sp(Lπ​)⊂[−1,1] for a reversible policy chain.
  5. (5.3): each eigenvalue ω\omegaω of BπB_\piBπ​ solves ω2−(μ+1)(1−1/κ)ω+12(μ+1)(1−1/κ)2=0\omega^2-(\mu+1)(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})\omega+\tfrac12(\mu+1)(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa})^2=0ω2−(μ+1)(1−1/κ​)ω+21​(μ+1)(1−1/κ​)2=0 for some μ∈Sp⁡(Lπ)\mu\in\operatorname{Sp}(L_\pi)μ∈Sp(Lπ​).
  6. For μ∈[−1,1]\mu\in[-1,1]μ∈[−1,1]: 12∣μ+1±μ2−1∣≤1\tfrac12|\mu+1\pm\sqrt{\mu^2-1}|\le121​∣μ+1±μ2−1​∣≤1.
  7. Lemma 5.3: ρ(Bπ)=1−1/κ\rho(B_\pi) = 1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}ρ(Bπ​)=1−1/κ​.
  8. (5.6): λ=1−1/κ+1−λ (1−1−λ2)/1+λ\lambda = 1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}+\sqrt{1-\lambda}\,(1-\sqrt{1-\lambda^2})/\sqrt{1+\lambda}λ=1−1/κ​+1−λ​(1−1−λ2​)/1+λ​, with a positive last term.

Significance

The result. Since 1−1/κ=1−(1−λ)/(1+λ)1-\sqrt{1/\kappa} = 1-\sqrt{(1-\lambda)/(1+\lambda)}1−1/κ​=1−(1−λ)/(1+λ)​, A-VC reaches an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximation of vπv^\pivπ in O((1−λ)−1/2log⁡(1/(ϵ(1−λ))))O\big((1-\lambda)^{-1/2}\log(1/(\epsilon(1-\lambda)))\big)O((1−λ)−1/2log(1/(ϵ(1−λ)))) iterations against O((1−λ)−1log⁡(1/(ϵ(1−λ))))O\big((1-\lambda)^{-1}\log(1/(\epsilon(1-\lambda)))\big)O((1−λ)−1log(1/(ϵ(1−λ)))) for VC, at the same per-iteration cost. This matches the rate of Nesterov's method for strongly convex functions with the paper's identification of the constants. The same paper shows that this improvement does not extend to arbitrary MDPs: Theorem 6.3 gives a lower bound λs/(1+λ)\lambda^s/(1+\lambda)λs/(1+λ) for every first-order method on a chain MDP, which is why reversibility (or a real spectrum, Remark 5.4) is needed here.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. A formal proof needs the reality of the spectrum of reversible chains, the localization of the spectrum of a structured block matrix, and the passage from the spectral radius to a little-o rate for a matrix with a nontrivial Jordan block. The paper's printed statement puts η\etaη under the square root, o((1−1/κ+η)s)o\big((1-\sqrt{1/\kappa+\eta})^s\big)o((1−1/κ+η​)s). That rate is faster than ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) and is false (a one-state chain is a counterexample). The mission poses the rate (1−1/κ+η)s(1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}+\eta)^s(1−1/κ​+η)s that the paper's own proof concludes on p. 9. This is one of four missions from this paper; the other three pose Theorem 5.5 (momentum value computation), Theorem 6.3 (the first-order lower bound) and Theorem 7.1 (safe accelerated value iteration).

Difficulty

The obvious argument says "ρ(Bπ)<1\rho(B_\pi)<1ρ(Bπ​)<1, so Bπs→0B_\pi^s\to0Bπs​→0 at rate ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​)". That argument breaks twice. First, computing ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) requires knowing where the eigenvalues of LπL_\piLπ​ lie. For a general stochastic matrix they fill the unit disk, and then the roots of (5.3) can exceed 1−1/κ1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}1−1/κ​ in modulus. Reversibility is what confines them to [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], and the reality of the spectrum of a reversible chain is not in Mathlib. Second, the eigenvalue 1−1/κ1-\sqrt{1/\kappa}1−1/κ​ of BπB_\piBπ​ (coming from μ=1\mu=1μ=1) is a double root of (5.3) with a single eigenvector, so ∥Bπs∥\|B_\pi^s\|∥Bπs​∥ is not O(ρs)O(\rho^s)O(ρs); only the η\etaη-relaxed little-o holds. The eigenvalues of BπB_\piBπ​ are non-real for μ∈(−1,1)\mu\in(-1,1)μ∈(−1,1), so the whole computation must be done over C\mathbb CC.

Formalization scope

  • Data. S\mathbb SS and A\mathbb AA are finite types. The MDP is the data (P,r,λ)(P, r, \lambda)(P,r,λ). Validity (stochastic Pia⋅P_{ia\cdot}Pia⋅​, λ∈(0,1)\lambda\in(0,1)λ∈(0,1)) and the policy property are hypotheses. Rewards are arbitrary reals. The initial-state distribution p0p_0p0​ of the paper's tuple is omitted, since nothing here uses it.
  • Reused definitions. rπr_\pirπ​, LπL_\piLπ​, vπv^\pivπ, policies and the kernel condition are the published FoundationsML.ReinforcementLearning definitions; irreducibility, stationarity and detailed balance are the published mm_basic. vπv^\pivπ is the discounted reward series, not an arbitrary fixed point of TπT_\piTπ​.
  • Reversibility is irreducibility plus a stationary probability vector in detailed balance. Detailed balance alone would be satisfied by ν=0\nu=0ν=0 and is not used.
  • Norms and rates. Vectors are functions S→R\mathbb S\to\mathbb RS→R with the sup norm ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​; "o(⋅)o(\cdot)o(⋅)" is Mathlib's little-o along s→∞s\to\inftys→∞.
  • Spectra are complex: ρ(Bπ)\rho(B_\pi)ρ(Bπ​) is the spectral radius of the complexified matrix, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Using the real spectrum would make Lemma 5.3 a different, weaker statement.
  • Indexing. A-VC is a sequence on N\mathbb NN with v0,v1v_0, v_1v0​,v1​ given; xs=(vs,vs−1)x_s = (v_s, v_{s-1})xs​=(vs​,vs−1​) is used only for s≥1s\ge1s≥1.
  • Pinned relative to the page. In the goal, η\etaη is outside the square root, as in the proof. In milestone 6, μ2−1\sqrt{\mu^2-1}μ2−1​ is written as i1−μ2i\sqrt{1-\mu^2}i1−μ2​, its value for μ∈[−1,1]\mu\in[-1,1]μ∈[−1,1].

Ruling out trivial readings: the hypotheses are satisfiable (a two-state chain with Piaj=1/2P_{iaj}=1/2Piaj​=1/2 is valid, reversible and has a policy), the rate is stated with ∀η>0\forall\eta>0∀η>0 rather than for some η\etaη, and vπv^\pivπ is a fixed object rather than a variable constrained by hypotheses.

Needed infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: the reality and location of the spectrum of reversible stochastic matrices (also used by the sibling mission on momentum value computation); spectra of 2×22\times22×2 block matrices with commuting blocks; and the bound ∥Ms∥=o((ρ(M)+η)s)\|M^s\| = o((\rho(M)+\eta)^s)∥Ms∥=o((ρ(M)+η)s) from Gelfand's formula. Contributions of any of these as stand-alone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. Goyal, J. Grand-Clément, A First-Order Approach to Accelerated Value Iteration, Operations Research 71(2), 2023; arXiv:1905.09963v7 (2021). https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09963
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Springer, 2004 (reprint 2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
  • P. Brémaud, Markov Chains: Gibbs Fields, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Queues, Springer, 1999 (reprint 2013), Ch. 6. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3124-8
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994 (reprint 2014). https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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On Adaptive-Step Primal-Dual Interior-Point Algorithms for Linear Programming 3: The Potential-Reduction Algorithm in N∞⁻(β) with ρ − n of Order n² Attains Precision t in O(nt) IterationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Primal–dual interior-point methods solve a linear program by following, approximately, the central path of strictly feasible primal–dual pairs. Two families dominate the theory. Path-following methods keep the iterates in a neighbourhood of the path and measure progress by the duality gap. Potential-reduction methods measure progress by a merit function, the primal–dual potential of Todd and Ye (Todd–Ye 1990), and choose the step to decrease it.

The potential carries a parameter ρ>n\rho > nρ>n. The classical analyses (Ye 1991, Freund, Anstreicher–Bosch, Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise) give O(n t)O(\sqrt n\,t)O(n​t) iterations with ρ=n+Θ(n)\rho = n + \Theta(\sqrt n)ρ=n+Θ(n​). Practical codes, however, performed better with much larger ρ\rhoρ (McShane–Monma–Shanno, Lustig–Marsten–Shanno). Mizuno, Todd and Ye (Cornell ORIE Technical Report No. 944, 1990, rev. 1991; journal version Math. Oper. Res. 18(4), 1993, doi:10.1287/moor.18.4.964) supply a worst-case justification for a large parameter. With ρ=n+Θ(n2)\rho = n + \Theta(n^2)ρ=n+Θ(n2) and the step chosen to minimise the potential inside the wide neighbourhood N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β), the method needs O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) iterations. That matches the adaptive-step path-following method in the same neighbourhood (their Theorem 2).

Timeline:

  • 1990: Todd and Ye introduce the primal–dual potential function.
  • 1989–1991: Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise, Ye, Freund and others prove O(n t)O(\sqrt n\,t)O(n​t) bounds for ρ=n+Θ(n)\rho = n + \Theta(\sqrt n)ρ=n+Θ(n​).
  • 1990–1991: Mizuno, Todd and Ye prove the O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) bound for ρ=n+Θ(n2)\rho = n + \Theta(n^2)ρ=n+Θ(n2) (Theorem 3 of the report formalized here).

Setting

Fix m≥0m \ge 0m≥0, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, A∈Rm×nA \in \mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, b∈Rmb \in \mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc \in \mathbb R^nc∈Rn. The primal problem is min⁡cTx\min c^TxmincTx subject to Ax=bAx = bAx=b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0. The dual is max⁡bTy\max b^TymaxbTy subject to ATy+s=cA^Ty + s = cATy+s=c, s≥0s \ge 0s≥0. The strictly feasible set F0\mathcal F^0F0 is the set of pairs (x,s)(x, s)(x,s) with x>0x > 0x>0, s>0s > 0s>0, Ax=bAx = bAx=b and ATy+s=cA^Ty + s = cATy+s=c for some yyy. The duality measure is μ=xTs/n\mu = x^Ts/nμ=xTs/n.

For z∈Rnz \in \mathbb R^nz∈Rn put (z−)j=min⁡{zj,0}(z^-)_j = \min\{z_j, 0\}(z−)j​=min{zj​,0} and ∥z∥∞−=∥z−∥∞\|z\|_\infty^- = \|z^-\|_\infty∥z∥∞−​=∥z−∥∞​. For β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1), the wide neighbourhood is

N∞−(β)={(x,s)∈F0:∥Xs−μe∥∞−≤βμ},\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta) = \{(x,s) \in \mathcal F^0 : \|Xs - \mu e\|_\infty^- \le \beta\mu\},N∞−​(β)={(x,s)∈F0:∥Xs−μe∥∞−​≤βμ},

i.e. xjsj≥(1−β)μx_js_j \ge (1-\beta)\muxj​sj​≥(1−β)μ for all jjj, where X=diag(x)X = \mathrm{diag}(x)X=diag(x) and eee is the all-ones vector.

The potential is

ψ(x,s)=ρlog⁡(xTs)−∑j=1nlog⁡(xjsj),ρ>n,\psi(x,s) = \rho\log(x^Ts) - \sum_{j=1}^n \log(x_js_j), \qquad \rho > n,ψ(x,s)=ρlog(xTs)−j=1∑n​log(xj​sj​),ρ>n,

with the natural logarithm. At (x,s)(x,s)(x,s) and for γ∈(0,1)\gamma \in (0,1)γ∈(0,1), a search direction d=(dx,dy,ds)d = (d_x, d_y, d_s)d=(dx​,dy​,ds​) solves

Sdx+Xds=γμe−Xs,Adx=0,ATdy+ds=0,S d_x + X d_s = \gamma\mu e - Xs,\qquad A d_x = 0,\qquad A^Td_y + d_s = 0,Sdx​+Xds​=γμe−Xs,Adx​=0,ATdy​+ds​=0,

and the iterates move along x(θ)=x+θdxx(\theta) = x + \theta d_xx(θ)=x+θdx​, s(θ)=s+θdss(\theta) = s + \theta d_ss(θ)=s+θds​. The scaled vectors are pj=sj/xj (dx)jp_j = \sqrt{s_j/x_j}\,(d_x)_jpj​=sj​/xj​​(dx​)j​ and qj=xj/sj (ds)jq_j = \sqrt{x_j/s_j}\,(d_s)_jqj​=xj​/sj​​(ds​)j​, Pq=(pjqj)jPq = (p_jq_j)_jPq=(pj​qj​)j​, and θ2−=min⁡{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞−}\theta_2^- = \min\{1, \beta\gamma\mu/\|Pq\|_\infty^-\}θ2−​=min{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞−​}.

Algorithm 3. Start from (x0,s0)∈N∞−(β)(x^0,s^0) \in \mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)(x0,s0)∈N∞−​(β) with (x0)Ts0≤2t(x^0)^Ts^0 \le 2^t(x0)Ts0≤2t and ψ(x0,s0)≤(ρ−n)t+nlog⁡n\psi(x^0,s^0) \le (\rho-n)t + n\log nψ(x0,s0)≤(ρ−n)t+nlogn. While (xk)Tsk>2−t(x^k)^Ts^k > 2^{-t}(xk)Tsk>2−t, compute ddd at (xk,sk)(x^k, s^k)(xk,sk), choose θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ with (x(θˉ),s(θˉ))∈N∞−(β)(x(\bar\theta), s(\bar\theta)) \in \mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))∈N∞−​(β) and ψ(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))≤ψ(x(θ),s(θ))\psi(x(\bar\theta), s(\bar\theta)) \le \psi(x(\theta), s(\theta))ψ(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))≤ψ(x(θ),s(θ)) for every θ\thetaθ with (x(θ),s(θ))∈N∞−(β)(x(\theta), s(\theta)) \in \mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)(x(θ),s(θ))∈N∞−​(β), and move to (x(θˉ),s(θˉ))(x(\bar\theta), s(\bar\theta))(x(θˉ),s(θˉ)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 11)

Let β,γ∈(0,1)\beta,\gamma \in (0,1)β,γ∈(0,1) with γ≤2(1−β)\gamma \le 2(1-\beta)γ≤2(1−β) and

ρ=n+(3βγ(1−γ)log⁡11−β)n2.\rho = n + \Bigl(\frac{3}{\beta\gamma(1-\gamma)}\log\frac{1}{1-\beta}\Bigr)n^2.ρ=n+(βγ(1−γ)3​log1−β1​)n2.

For every t>0t > 0t>0 and every run of Algorithm 3,

∃ k≤⌈6nt11βγ(1−γ)⌉:(xk)Tsk≤2−t.\exists\, k \le \Bigl\lceil \frac{6nt}{11\beta\gamma(1-\gamma)} \Bigr\rceil:\quad (x^k)^Ts^k \le 2^{-t}.∃k≤⌈11βγ(1−γ)6nt​⌉:(xk)Tsk≤2−t.

The paper states "O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) iterations". The explicit count is the one its own proof yields, and it is stated so that the goal is not an existential over a constant.

Milestones

  1. §5, p. 11. ψ(x,s)=(ρ−n)log⁡(xTs)−∑jlog⁡xjsjxTs/n+nlog⁡n≥(ρ−n)log⁡(xTs)+nlog⁡n\psi(x,s) = (\rho-n)\log(x^Ts) - \sum_j\log\frac{x_js_j}{x^Ts/n} + n\log n \ge (\rho-n)\log(x^Ts) + n\log nψ(x,s)=(ρ−n)log(xTs)−∑j​logxTs/nxj​sj​​+nlogn≥(ρ−n)log(xTs)+nlogn. Hence reducing ψ\psiψ to −(ρ−n)t+nlog⁡n-(\rho-n)t + n\log n−(ρ−n)t+nlogn gives xTs≤2−tx^Ts \le 2^{-t}xTs≤2−t.
  2. (16), p. 12. One step of Algorithm 3 satisfies ψ(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))−ψ(x,s)≤−(3n2θ2−βγ−n)log⁡11−β\psi(x(\bar\theta),s(\bar\theta)) - \psi(x,s) \le -\bigl(\frac{3n^2\theta_2^-}{\beta\gamma} - n\bigr)\log\frac{1}{1-\beta}ψ(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))−ψ(x,s)≤−(βγ3n2θ2−​​−n)log1−β1​.
  3. Proof of Theorem 3, p. 12. For n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, every step decreases ψ\psiψ by at least 11nlog⁡11−β11n\log\frac{1}{1-\beta}11nlog1−β1​.

Significance

The result shows that a potential-reduction method with ρ−n\rho - nρ−n of order n2n^2n2 keeps a polynomial worst-case bound. The earlier analyses cited by the report used ρ−n\rho - nρ−n of order n\sqrt nn​. It thereby gives a worst-case justification for the large parameters that worked in practice. It also connects the two families: the direction is the path-following direction, and only the step rule changes. Corollary 3 of the paper adds that iterations with a small second-order term PqPqPq decrease the potential far more.

The result is proved in the report. As far as the platform's index shows, no part of it has been machine-checked. The platform already holds the potential function (Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis §9.3) and a proved bookkeeping theorem converting a constant per-iteration decrease into an iteration count (Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis Theorem 9.4). This mission adds the analysis of a concrete algorithm: the admissibility of the step θ2−\theta_2^-θ2−​ in N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β), the potential decrease (16), and the complexity bound.

Difficulty

The step θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ is defined by minimisation, not by an explicit formula, so its decrease must be bounded by comparison with a step whose effect can be computed. That reference step must be shown to stay in the neighbourhood. This requires controlling the second-order term PqPqPq of the Newton direction in the one-sided norm ∥⋅∥∞−\|\cdot\|_\infty^-∥⋅∥∞−​, together with the centrality of the current iterate. A fixed decrease of order nnn arises only because ρ−n\rho - nρ−n is of order n2n^2n2. Below that scale, the duality-gap term of the potential no longer dominates the loss in centrality from a long step.

A second obstacle is specific to formal work. Algorithm 3's rule ranges over every real θ\thetaθ whose point lies in the neighbourhood, and a minimiser need not exist. The goal must hold for every run, including the degenerate ones.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, with index j=1,…,nj = 1,\dots,nj=1,…,n mapped to Fin n; ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ is Mathlib's sup norm. The general standard-form LP pair is a separate definition, and the neighbourhood and algorithm build on its strict feasibility predicate. ψ\psiψ is the published definition LinearOptimization.interiorPointPotential with q:=ρq := \rhoq:=ρ. It equals (1) at every strictly positive pair, and it is evaluated only at points of N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β). All logarithms are natural, and 2±t2^{\pm t}2±t are real powers with real t>0t > 0t>0. A run is a pair of sequences satisfying the start conditions and, whenever the current gap exceeds 2−t2^{-t}2−t, the step relation of Algorithm 3. Iterates after termination are unconstrained.

Conventions and repairs:

  • θ2−:=1\theta_2^- := 1θ2−​:=1 when ∥Pq∥∞−=0\|Pq\|_\infty^- = 0∥Pq∥∞−​=0, reading βγμ/0\beta\gamma\mu/0βγμ/0 as +∞+\infty+∞.
  • The per-iteration milestone keeps the page's n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. The paper's step θ2−≥4βγ/n\theta_2^- \ge 4\beta\gamma/nθ2−​≥4βγ/n needs 4βγ≤n4\beta\gamma \le n4βγ≤n, which can fail for n=1n = 1n=1; but for n=1n = 1n=1 the potential is unbounded below along the line inside the neighbourhood, so no step exists and the statement holds vacuously there. The goal keeps n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 as well.
  • The minimisation in Algorithm 3 ranges over all real θ\thetaθ, as printed. It does not range over a segment, and the step is not the largest admissible step of Algorithm 2.
  • Both start conditions are kept: (x0)Ts0≤2t(x^0)^Ts^0 \le 2^t(x0)Ts0≤2t from Algorithm 2 and the potential bound of §5.

A formalization in which no run can exist for any instance, or in which ρ\rhoρ or the iteration count absorbs an instance-dependent constant, would trivialize the goal. The step relation above is satisfiable for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 whenever the potential attains its minimum along the line, and the count is the explicit expression above.

Needed infrastructure: the algebra of system (2), namely dxTds=0d_x^Td_s = 0dxT​ds​=0, the identity μ(θ)=(1−(1−γ)θ)μ\mu(\theta) = (1-(1-\gamma)\theta)\muμ(θ)=(1−(1−γ)θ)μ, and X(θ)s(θ)−μ(θ)e=(1−θ)(Xs−μe)+θ2PqX(\theta)s(\theta) - \mu(\theta)e = (1-\theta)(Xs - \mu e) + \theta^2 PqX(θ)s(θ)−μ(θ)e=(1−θ)(Xs−μe)+θ2Pq. Also needed are the bounds ∥Pq∥∞≤∥r∥2/4\|Pq\|_\infty \le \|r\|^2/4∥Pq∥∞​≤∥r∥2/4 and ∥r∥2≤nμ\|r\|^2 \le n\mu∥r∥2≤nμ on N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β) when γ≤2(1−β)\gamma \le 2(1-\beta)γ≤2(1−β), and the arithmetic–geometric mean inequality for ψ\psiψ. These facts are shared with the sibling missions on the predictor–corrector and wide-neighbourhood algorithms of the same paper, and lemmas proved here are welcome there. The proved Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis theorem LinearOptimization.interior_point_potential_reduction is included as a reference item for the final counting step. Its hypotheses quantify over all iterations and need explicit dual iterates, so it does not apply verbatim.

Selected references

  • S. Mizuno, M. J. Todd, Y. Ye, On adaptive-step primal-dual interior-point algorithms for linear programming, Cornell ORIE Technical Report No. 944, 1990, rev. 1991; Mathematics of Operations Research 18(4):964–981, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.964
  • M. J. Todd, Y. Ye, A centered projective algorithm for linear programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 15(3):508–529, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.3.508
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Complexity TheoryLinear Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Linear Characterizations of Combinatorial Optimization Problems II: A Small Polynomial-Time Generator of Violated Inequalities Puts the Decision Problem in PResearch Paper

Motivation

Many combinatorial optimization problems ask for the largest value of a linear objective over discrete feasible solutions. A linear program over the convex hull of those solutions has the same optimum, so one approach is to describe that hull by inequalities. For matching, for example, inequalities support efficient optimization; for other problems, the full family can be very large. A generator of violated inequalities offers a different interface: given a proposed point, it either certifies hull membership or produces one valid inequality that the point violates. Karp and Papadimitriou asked what the existence of an efficient generator implies for the underlying decision problem. Their answer is Theorem 2 of the technical report.

The report appeared as MIT/LCS/TM-154 in 1980 and later in SIAM Journal on Computing in 1982. Its first theorem addresses a small facial description whose inequality family belongs to NP. This mission concerns its second theorem, where the inequalities may be generated on demand in polynomial time. The conclusion is stronger: the decision language itself belongs to P. The report derives an NP-complete consequence as Corollary 2, conditional on the unresolved equality P = NP. The published article gives the later bibliographic record; all numbering here follows the technical report.

Setting

A combinatorial optimization problem C=(L,n,S)C=(L,n,S)C=(L,n,S) consists of a binary input language LLL, a nonnegative integer dimension n(z)n(z)n(z), and a set S(z)⊆Z+n(z)S(z)\subseteq\mathbb Z_+^{n(z)}S(z)⊆Z+n(z)​ of feasible vectors for each z∈Lz\in Lz∈L. The report requires polynomial-time recognition of LLL, of correctly sized pairs ⟨z,y⟩\langle z,y\rangle⟨z,y⟩, and of feasible pairs ⟨z,x⟩\langle z,x\rangle⟨z,x⟩. An instance adds an integer objective c∈Zn(z)c\in\mathbb Z^{n(z)}c∈Zn(z). Its threshold decision language is

D(C)={⟨z,c,k⟩:z∈L, k∈Z, ∃x∈S(z), c⋅x≥k}.D(C)=\{\langle z,c,k\rangle:z\in L,\ k\in\mathbb Z,\ \exists x\in S(z),\ c\cdot x\ge k\}.D(C)={⟨z,c,k⟩:z∈L, k∈Z, ∃x∈S(z), c⋅x≥k}.

Write CH(S(z))\mathrm{CH}(S(z))CH(S(z)) for the convex hull of the feasible vectors. A generator G(C)G(C)G(C) receives z∈Lz\in Lz∈L and a rational vector p∈Qn(z)p\in\mathbb Q^{n(z)}p∈Qn(z). It returns “O.K.” exactly when ppp belongs to the hull. Otherwise it returns an integer vector fff and integer ggg for which f⋅p>gf\cdot p>gf⋅p>g while f⋅x≤gf\cdot x\le gf⋅x≤g for every x∈S(z)x\in S(z)x∈S(z). The family FG(C)F_G(C)FG​(C) contains every triple ⟨z,f,g⟩\langle z,f,g\rangle⟨z,f,g⟩ that occurs as some output. It is a facial description because its inequalities describe the hull exactly. The generator is small if one polynomial p0p_0p0​ bounds every coefficient in every output by 2p0(∣z∣+n(z))2^{p_0(|z|+n(z))}2p0​(∣z∣+n(z)) in absolute value. Its running time is measured on the full encoded query, including every rational coordinate. These definitions are from §§2 and 4 of the report.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2

The goal is the report's stated implication:

G(C) is a small polynomial-time generator⟹D(C)∈P.G(C)\text{ is a small polynomial-time generator}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad D(C)\in\mathrm P.G(C) is a small polynomial-time generator⟹D(C)∈P.

It allows any c.o.p. satisfying Definition 1, including an empty feasible set or dimension zero. It does not assert P = NP; that consequence needs the additional hypothesis that D(C)D(C)D(C) is NP-complete. The goal is supported by five source claims: the output family is facial; feasibility of system (4) is equivalent to membership in D(C)D(C)D(C); Lemma 4 bounds the distance from a rational point to a small hyperplane; its Corollary extends the bound to a real point on a flat; and Lemma 5 controls distance to a flat after one more hyperplane is added. The system (4) target is

∃x∈Qn(z):c⋅x≥k,f⋅x≤g(⟨z,f,g⟩∈FG(C))⟺⟨z,c,k⟩∈D(C).\exists x\in\mathbb Q^{n(z)}:\quad c\cdot x\ge k,\quad f\cdot x\le g\quad(\langle z,f,g\rangle\in F_G(C))\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad\langle z,c,k\rangle\in D(C).∃x∈Qn(z):c⋅x≥k,f⋅x≤g(⟨z,f,g⟩∈FG​(C))⟺⟨z,c,k⟩∈D(C).

The distance targets use the report's parameter ttt and the bounds 2−(n(z)+1)t2^{-(n(z)+1)t}2−(n(z)+1)t and (2t−1)δ(2^t-1)\delta(2t−1)δ, exactly as printed on pp. 12–13.

Significance

Theorem 2 turns an efficient separation interface into an efficient test for the threshold language. Consequently, if a c.o.p.'s decision language is NP-complete, a small polynomial-time generator would imply P = NP, as the report's Corollary 2 says. This gives a complexity barrier to a whole class of proposed cutting-plane interfaces, independently of how many inequalities the complete description contains. The result concerns the worst-case running time and output coefficient size; it does not rule out useful generators without those guarantees. Karp and Papadimitriou also point out positive applications to problems already known to be in P.

The mathematical theorem was proved in the report. The mission asks for a machine-checked version of that known result, with explicit interfaces for the generator, coefficient bounds, and the underlying complexity class. The local platform catalog already contains Cook's Turing-machine definitions and a reusable binary-integer encoding; it also contains point-to-hyperplane distance results and a Gram-determinant distance result in other settings. Theorem 2 and these particular source claims are new formalization targets here. The distance and encoding interfaces can serve later missions about separation oracles and bit complexity.

Difficulty

Calling the generator once does not by itself decide whether the objective threshold is attainable: the point supplied to it may be outside the hull, and a single returned inequality says only that this point is excluded. Repeatedly asking at an unchanged point may return the same inequality. The report must also control very small separations, coefficient sizes, and finite precision when an iterative linear-feasibility procedure uses the oracle. Lemmas 4 and 5 quantify the geometric gaps and movement that such a procedure needs. Its Lemmas 2, 3, and 6 address the surrounding perturbation, volume, and iteration arguments; Lemma 6 explicitly relies on another analysis for the finite-precision bound. These are substantive proof obligations even though their statements are not all separate milestones in this proposal. See §4 of the report.

Formalization scope

The report's footnote uses RRR for the rationals. Thus ppp, the hull, and system (4) live in Qn(z)\mathbb Q^{n(z)}Qn(z). Euclidean distances are evaluated after casting coordinates into EuclideanSpace R (Fin n)\mathrm{EuclideanSpace}\,\mathbb R\,(\mathrm{Fin}\ n)EuclideanSpaceR(Fin n); a hyperplane distance is the quotient ∣f⋅r−g∣/∥f∥2|f\cdot r-g|/\|f\|_2∣f⋅r−g∣/∥f∥2​, and distance to a flat uses Euclidean infimum distance. The report does not define “affinely independent hyperplanes”; this mission reads it as linear independence of their normals, which ensures a common flat. Small hyperplanes have nonzero normals, avoiding a zero denominator.

The alphabet is {0,1,−,#}\{0,1,-,\#\}{0,1,−,#}. Binary tuple codes contain zzz, an explicit vector dimension, and every integer; a rational coordinate contains its reduced numerator and denominator. The generator's string function must match the mathematical oracle on every valid query and be polynomial time in the complete code length. A malformed string is outside D(C)D(C)D(C). The source's arbitrary polynomial bound is written ma+am^a+ama+a for one exponent aaa fixed before all instances. For the bit-length parameter ttt, the printed logarithms of possibly nonpositive cic_ici​ and kkk are read as ceiling logarithms of absolute values, with clog⁡2(0)=0\operatorname{clog}_2(0)=0clog2​(0)=0 and the printed +1+1+1 terms retained. The source's formula ε=2−(2n(z)+2)t\varepsilon=2^{-(2n(z)+2)t}ε=2−(2n(z)+2)t remains relevant to the eventual proof of Theorem 2, although no ε\varepsilonε system is a separate draft item here.

Every oracle answer must separate the queried point and remain valid on all of S(z)S(z)S(z); these obligations prevent an arbitrary function from satisfying the goal. The c.o.p. structure retains all three polynomial-recognition conditions of Definition 1. The paper's displayed “min” in (3) is inconsistent with its threshold language and surrounding maximization formulas; D(C)D(C)D(C) uses the printed c⋅x≥kc\cdot x\ge kc⋅x≥k. The typed source's “x∉Hx\notin Hx∈/H” in Lemma 4 is read as the already named point r∉Hr\notin Hr∈/H.

Contributions can develop the rational-hull equivalence, the two quantitative hyperplane lemmas, the finite-precision ellipsoid procedure underlying Lemma 6, or the perturbation and volume claims. The complexity substrate is Cook's one-tape model of P and NP, and the binary integer codec is the published ProjSchedTW_Complexity_Encoding definition. The geometry lemmas are phrased so that existing Mathlib Euclidean-space results can be reused without changing the source's rational optimization domain.

Selected references

  • Richard M. Karp and Christos H. Papadimitriou, On Linear Characterizations of Combinatorial Optimization Problems, MIT/LCS/TM-154, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1980. Technical report.
  • Richard M. Karp and Christos H. Papadimitriou, “On Linear Characterizations of Combinatorial Optimization Problems,” SIAM Journal on Computing 11 (1982), 620–632. DOI.
  • Stephen A. Cook, “The Complexity of Theorem-Proving Procedures,” Proceedings of the Third Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 1971. DOI.
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Disjunctive Programming IX: The Correspondence Between Lift-and-Project Cuts and Simple Disjunctive CutsTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 6 built lift-and-project (L&P) cuts from a cut-generating LP, and Chapter 7 surveyed alternative nonlinear constructions reaching the same integer hull. This chapter asks a sharper question: how do L&P cuts relate, coefficient for coefficient, to older, more classical cutting planes — simple disjunctive cuts and mixed integer Gomory cuts, derived directly from a simplex tableau rather than from an auxiliary LP? The answer is an exact correspondence: every L&P cut from a basic solution of the cut-generating LP is equivalent to a specific simple disjunctive cut from a specific tableau basis, and conversely. This correspondence is not merely of theoretical interest — it converts a question about an infinite family of cuts into a finite, countable one (bases of a linear system), and it is what lets the chapter's capstone result, Theorem 8.7, establish a uniform rank bound of ppp (the number of 0-1 variables) across four cut families at once, by proving it for one and transporting the proof to the other three.

Setting

(CGLP)k(CGLP)_k(CGLP)k​ (eq. (8.1)) is the cut-generating LP for the disjunction −xk≥0∨xk≥1-x_k \ge 0 \lor x_k \ge 1−xk​≥0∨xk​≥1, with an added normalization constraint ue+u0+ve+v0=1ue+u_0+ve+v_0=1ue+u0​+ve+v0​=1 that makes its feasible polytope bounded — so a "basic solution" can be identified with an extreme point of that polytope. Given a basic solution with u0,v0>0u_0,v_0>0u0​,v0​>0 and basic u/vu/vu/v-components indexed by M1,M2M_1,M_2M1​,M2​ (Lemma 8.1-8.2), the n×nn\times nn×n submatrix A^\hat AA^ of A~\tilde AA~ indexed by J:=M1∪M2J:=M_1\cup M_2J:=M1​∪M2​ is nonsingular, giving a simplex tableau in which xkx_kxk​ is expressed as xk=aˉk0−∑j∈Jaˉkjxjx_k = \bar a_{k0} - \sum_{j\in J}\bar a_{kj}x_jxk​=aˉk0​−∑j∈J​aˉkj​xj​ (eq. (8.5)). The simple disjunctive cut from xk≤0∨xk≥1x_k\le 0 \lor x_k\ge 1xk​≤0∨xk​≥1 applied to this row has coefficients πj:=max⁡{πj1,πj2}\pi_j := \max\{\pi^1_j,\pi^2_j\}πj​:=max{πj1​,πj2​}, π0:=aˉk0(1−aˉk0)\pi_0 := \bar a_{k0}(1-\bar a_{k0})π0​:=aˉk0​(1−aˉk0​) (eq. (8.7)-(8.8)).

Formalization targets

Theorem 8.7 (goal) — a uniform rank bound across four cut families

The rank of the LP relaxation PPP with respect to (a) unstrengthened L&P cuts, (b) simple disjunctive cuts, (c) strengthened L&P cuts, (d) mixed integer Gomory cuts (equivalently, strengthened simple disjunctive cuts) is at most ppp, the number of 0-1 variables.

The chain of results building toward it

Lemma 8.1 (basicness forces u0,v0>0u_0,v_0>0u0​,v0​>0), Lemma 8.2 (a basic solution's index sets give a nonsingular submatrix), Lemma 8.3 (0<aˉk0<10<\bar a_{k0}<10<aˉk0​<1), Theorem 8.4A (a basic L&P cut equals a simple disjunctive cut), Theorem 8.4B (the converse: every simple disjunctive cut from a valid basis equals some basic L&P cut), and Theorem 8.5 (the same correspondence, strengthened).

Significance

The results themselves. Theorems 8.4A/8.4B are, in the book's own words, an "exact correspondence between lift-and-project cuts for a mixed 0-1 program and earlier cuts from the literature" — placing L&P cuts, simple disjunctive cuts, and (via Theorem 8.5) mixed integer Gomory cuts on the same logical footing, all generated by choosing a basis of one underlying linear system. Theorem 8.7 is the payoff: a single uniform bound covering four cut families that the literature had previously bounded (if at all) by separate arguments, and by contrast to the unbounded rank of pure-integer fractional Gomory cuts, exhibiting a case where the mixed 0-1 structure yields much stronger guarantees.

Formalizing it. No object in this mission exists on the platform prior to it or in Mathlib. This mission restates 06-lift-project-cuts's (CGLP)(CGLP)(CGLP) apparatus and Theorem 6.4's strengthened cut formula locally, per the series convention that a draft mission cannot import another draft mission's definitions, adapted throughout to this chapter's normalized (CGLP)k(CGLP)_k(CGLP)k​ and its disjunction on a single fixed coordinate kkk.

Difficulty

Formalizing "basic solution" required a genuine choice: unlike Chapter 6, (CGLP)k(CGLP)_k(CGLP)k​'s normalization constraint makes its feasible set a bounded polytope, so this mission identifies "basic solution" with an extreme point of that polytope (Set.extremePoints) for Lemma 8.1 (whose own statement has no reference to specific index sets), while Lemmas 8.2 onward take the basic index sets M1,M2M_1,M_2M1​,M2​ directly as hypothesis data, matching how those theorems are themselves phrased ("let the basic components... be indexed by M1M_1M1​ and M2M_2M2​"). Theorem 8.7's rank bound required designing one generic HasRankAtMost predicate, parametrized by an abstract cut-closure operator, applicable uniformly to all four families — mirroring the book's own proof structure, which establishes the bound for one family and transports it to the other three via Theorems 8.4A/8.4B and 8.5, rather than arguing each part from scratch.

Formalization scope

The row/variable identification gap (see MODERATION_NOTES.md). The book's own eq. (8.4)- (8.5) identifies certain rows of the augmented, m+p+nm+p+nm+p+n-row matrix A~\tilde AA~ (those that are bound constraints xj≥0x_j\ge 0xj​≥0) with the variables they bound, so that a chosen nonbasic row set JJJ doubles as a set of "nonbasic variables." This mission's abstract row type does not track that identification (matching the abstraction already used throughout 06-lift-project-cuts and 07-higher-dim): Surplus instead defines the tableau row's nonbasic quantities directly as the slack expression sj:=(A~x)j−b~js_j := (\tilde Ax)_j - \tilde b_jsj​:=(A~x)j​−b~j​, a genuine affine function of xxx for every row, which reduces to xjx_jxj​ itself exactly when row jjj is that bound constraint — mathematically equivalent to the book's own substitution, stated without needing the row-to-variable lookup. Eq. (8.10)'s "j∈J∩N′j\in J\cap N'j∈J∩N′" strengthening-eligibility test has the same gap; this mission takes the row-positions eligible for strengthening as an explicit Finset parameter rather than deriving membership from row identity.

Corollary 8.6 is out of scope for this mission — see HARD.md. Its facet-counting bound depends on the same row/variable identification (the printed bound is (m+p+n−1n)\binom{m+p+n-1}{n}(nm+p+n−1​), excluding row kkk specifically because it is xkx_kxk​'s own bound row) and would additionally require a general notion of "number of facets of a polyhedron" that this mission's abstraction, and Mathlib, do not provide; it does not feed Theorem 8.7's own proof, which cites only Theorems 8.4A/8.4B and 8.5.

Theorem 8.7 is stated via one generic HasRankAtMost predicate applied to SplitConvexify (part a) and three closure operators (SimpleDisjClosureOfSet, StrengthenedLPClosureOfSet, MIGClosureOfSet, parts b-d) defined by intersecting a represented polyhedron with every cut of the corresponding family, then lifted to bare sets by quantifying over every linear representation — since, unlike the split-convexification closure, these three cut families are defined via an explicit basis or CGLP solution and so genuinely need some concrete representation of the current polyhedron at each step of the recursion (the same representation-dependence Theorem 7.5's Lovász-Schrijver iteration required in 07-higher-dim).

Selected references

  • E. Balas, Disjunctive Programming, Springer, 2018. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-00148-3, Chapter 8.
  • E. Balas, M. Perregaard, A precise correspondence between lift-and-project cuts, simple disjunctive cuts, and mixed integer Gomory cuts for 0-1 programming, Mathematical Programming B 94 (2003), 221–245 (cited in the text as [33], the origin of Lemma 8.2 and Theorems 8.4A/8.4B).
  • E. Balas, M. Perregaard, Lift-and-project for mixed 0-1 programming: recent progress, Discrete Applied Mathematics 123 (2002), 129–154 (cited in the text as [32], the origin of Theorem 8.5's strengthened-cut coefficient identification).
  • F. Eisenbrand, A. Schulz, Bounds on the Chvátal rank of polytopes in the 0-1 cube, in Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization (IPCO 7), LNCS 1610 (1999), 137–150 (cited in the text as [73], the source of the unbounded pure-integer Gomory rank result this chapter's Theorem 8.7 contrasts with).
14 thms4 active users
CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: hao jia

Clique Partitions of Chordal Graphs (Erdos Problem 81)Open Problem

Motivation

An edge partition into cliques compresses the adjacency structure of a graph into complete pieces without allowing any edge to be counted twice. Erdős Problem 81 asks for the asymptotically sharp upper bound on the number of pieces needed when the graph is chordal. Chordal graphs have strong elimination structure, but that structure does not make the partition parameter additive under arbitrary edge deletion, and obtaining a linear error term remains substantially stronger than identifying the leading quadratic coefficient.

Erdős, Ordman, and Zalcstein studied clique partitions of chordal graphs in 1993. Their examples already exhibit the n2/6n^2/6n2/6 scale, while their general upper estimate had a larger quadratic coefficient. Later dense-packing results of Haxell–Rödl and Yuster compare fractional and integer triangle packings with an o(n2)o(n^2)o(n2) gap. The project candidate combines that interface with chordal elimination arguments to formulate a uniform n2/6+o(n2)n^2/6+o(n^2)n2/6+o(n2) milestone. It does not supply the O(n)O(n)O(n) remainder asked for by the root.

Setting

A finite simple graph is chordal when it has no induced cycle of length greater than three. The Lean definition uses the equivalent perfect-elimination form: vertices admit an injective ranking such that the later neighbors of every vertex form a clique.

An edge partition into cliques is a finite family P\mathcal PP of complete vertex sets such that every edge of GGG belongs to exactly one member of P\mathcal PP. Members may share vertices but may not share edges. Write cp⁡(G)\operatorname{cp}(G)cp(G) for the minimum possible number of pieces.

The asymptotic notation

n26+O(n)\frac{n^2}{6}+O(n)6n2​+O(n)

means that there are constants C>0C>0C>0 and n0≥1n_0\ge1n0​≥1, chosen independently of GGG and nnn, such that every chordal nnn-vertex graph with n≥n0n\ge n_0n≥n0​ has a clique partition with at most n2/6+Cnn^2/6+Cnn2/6+Cn pieces.

Formalization targets

Erdős Problem 81

The root theorem is

∃C>0 ∃n0≥1 ∀n≥n0 ∀G chordal on n vertices,cp⁡(G)≤n26+Cn.\exists C>0\ \exists n_0\ge1\ \forall n\ge n_0\ \forall G\text{ chordal on }n\text{ vertices}, \qquad \operatorname{cp}(G)\le \frac{n^2}{6}+Cn.∃C>0 ∃n0​≥1 ∀n≥n0​ ∀G chordal on n vertices,cp(G)≤6n2​+Cn.

The quantifier order is essential: CCC and n0n_0n0​ are universal and cannot depend on the graph.

Leading-coefficient milestone

The supporting target records the weaker uniform statement

∀ε>0 ∃n0 ∀n≥n0 ∀G chordal on n vertices,cp⁡(G)≤(16+ε)n2.\forall\varepsilon>0\ \exists n_0\ \forall n\ge n_0\ \forall G\text{ chordal on }n\text{ vertices}, \qquad \operatorname{cp}(G)\le \left(\frac16+\varepsilon\right)n^2.∀ε>0 ∃n0​ ∀n≥n0​ ∀G chordal on n vertices,cp(G)≤(61​+ε)n2.

This is the precise n2/6+o(n2)n^2/6+o(n^2)n2/6+o(n2) form. It is not equivalent to the root: choosing ε=1/n\varepsilon=1/nε=1/n is invalid because the cutoff may depend on the fixed value of ε\varepsilonε.

Significance

The root would determine the clique-partition extremum for chordal graphs up to a linear remainder, matching the scale of the complete-split examples that motivate the coefficient 1/61/61/6. It would refine a leading-order asymptotic theorem into a uniform estimate strong enough to distinguish second-order behavior.

Formalization creates a clean interface among perfect elimination orderings, exact edge partitions, fractional edge-and-triangle decompositions, and integer triangle packings. It also forces the proof to distinguish a partition from a cover and original graph order from the order of any auxiliary hypergraph. These definitions can support other decomposition problems on chordal and split graphs.

Difficulty

Perfect elimination does not by itself give the sharp partition count. Greedily taking maximal cliques may overlap in edges or accumulate too many singleton pieces. Similarly, a fractional edge-and-triangle partition can achieve the right leading coefficient while integer rounding loses o(n2)o(n^2)o(n2) pieces; the root requires that loss to be only O(n)O(n)O(n).

The dense-packing theorem has quantifiers of the form “for every fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there exists N(ε)N(\varepsilon)N(ε).” It therefore yields a uniform subquadratic error but no linear error. Any proof of the root must add a chordal-specific rounding or extremal reduction rather than treating the general packing theorem as if its ε\varepsilonε could vary with nnn.

Formalization scope

Graphs are finite and simple. Chordality is encoded by existence of a perfect-elimination ranking, including disconnected and edgeless graphs. A clique piece is a finite vertex set that spans a complete subgraph. Exactness means every actual edge occurs in exactly one piece; no nonedge can occur inside a piece. Bounds are compared in R\mathbb RR so the displayed asymptotic expressions retain their conventional form, while the number of parts remains a natural number.

The candidate derivation of the leading coefficient imports finite linear-programming duality and the Haxell–Rödl/Yuster fixed-triangle packing approximation. It is candidate_only, not an admitted result or kernel proof. Contributions may formalize the perfect-elimination lemmas, the fractional compression, the uniform packing interface, complete-split lower examples, or the root linear rounding theorem. A result for edge-and-triangle pieces only, a fractional partition, or one fixed order must not be presented as the unrestricted integer clique-partition theorem.

Selected references

  • P. Erdős, E. T. Ordman, and Y. Zalcstein, Clique Partitions of Chordal Graphs, Combinatorics, Probability and Computing 2(4), 1993. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0963548300000808
  • P. E. Haxell and V. Rödl, Integer and Fractional Packings in Dense Graphs, Combinatorica 21, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004930170003
  • R. Yuster, Integer and fractional packing of families of graphs, 2003. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0305350
  • Erdős Problems, Problem 81. https://www.erdosproblems.com/81
16 thms4 active usersReviewed
Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On-Demand Delivery from Stores: Dynamic Dispatching and Routing with Random Demand II: A Route Whose Reduced Cost Exceeds ub − φ(RF1) Is in No Optimal Solution of the Routing Subproblem SF1Research Paper

Motivation

Grocery chains and restaurants that promise delivery within an hour or less must decide, at each dispatch epoch, which drivers to send out and along which routes. Liu and Luo (arXiv:2107.13058v3; Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023) model this as a finite-horizon dynamic program and solve its per-period approximation with a logic-based Benders decomposition: a master problem chooses how many drivers to commit to future periods, and a routing subproblem then picks the routes that serve the current orders.

The routing subproblem is a set-partitioning integer program over an exponentially large route set. The paper solves it with a route enumeration algorithm, which generates only the routes that can still appear in an optimal solution. The pruning rule that makes this work is Lemma 2 (p. 19): a route whose LP reduced cost exceeds the gap between an upper bound and the LP bound cannot appear in any optimal solution. Rules of this kind, reduced-cost fixing for set-partitioning formulations, are a standard component of exact vehicle-routing algorithms (see, e.g., Baldacci, Christofides, Mingozzi 2008). This mission formalizes Lemma 2 for the paper's own subproblem.

Setting

Fix a period nnn and a solution (xˉ,zˉ)(\bar{\mathbf x},\bar{\mathbf z})(xˉ,zˉ) of the master problem. The data are:

  • a finite set Rn\mathcal R^nRn of feasible routes, a finite set In\mathcal I^nIn of current customer locations, and the future periods n′∈{n+1,…,N}n'\in\{n+1,\dots,N\}n′∈{n+1,…,N};
  • a route cost crc_rcr​ for every r∈Rnr\in\mathcal R^nr∈Rn;
  • coverage coefficients αi,r∈{0,1}\alpha_{i,r}\in\{0,1\}αi,r​∈{0,1} (route rrr serves location iii) and occupancy coefficients βn′,r∈{0,1}\beta_{n',r}\in\{0,1\}βn′,r​∈{0,1} (route rrr is still running in period n′n'n′);
  • the fleet size Kˉ\bar KKˉ, the number ζnn\zeta^n_nζnn​ of drivers still en route in period nnn, and master values zˉkn′∈{0,1}\bar z^{n'}_k\in\{0,1\}zˉkn′​∈{0,1} with ∑k=0Kˉzˉkn′=1\sum_{k=0}^{\bar K}\bar z^{n'}_k=1∑k=0Kˉ​zˉkn′​=1.

Write bn′=∑k=0Kˉk zˉkn′b_{n'}=\sum_{k=0}^{\bar K}k\,\bar z^{n'}_kbn′​=∑k=0Kˉ​kzˉkn′​, the number of drivers the master solution allows to remain occupied in period n′n'n′.

The routing subproblem SF1 (pp. 16–17) is

min⁡ ∑r∈Rnθrcrs.t.∑rβn′,rθr≤bn′ ∀n′,∑rθr≤Kˉ−ζnn,∑rαi,rθr=1 ∀i∈In,θr∈{0,1}.\min\ \sum_{r\in\mathcal R^n}\theta_r c_r\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_r\beta_{n',r}\theta_r\le b_{n'}\ \forall n',\qquad \sum_r\theta_r\le\bar K-\zeta^n_n,\qquad \sum_r\alpha_{i,r}\theta_r=1\ \forall i\in\mathcal I^n,\qquad \theta_r\in\{0,1\}.min r∈Rn∑​θr​cr​s.t.r∑​βn′,r​θr​≤bn′​ ∀n′,r∑​θr​≤Kˉ−ζnn​,r∑​αi,r​θr​=1 ∀i∈In,θr​∈{0,1}.

Its LP relaxation RF1 replaces θr∈{0,1}\theta_r\in\{0,1\}θr​∈{0,1} by θr≥0\theta_r\ge0θr​≥0 and the partitioning rows by covering rows ∑rαi,rθr≥1\sum_r\alpha_{i,r}\theta_r\ge1∑r​αi,r​θr​≥1; ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) denotes its optimal cost. The dual variables are μn′\mu_{n'}μn′​ for the occupancy rows, μn\mu_nμn​ for the fleet row and νi\nu_iνi​ for the covering rows. The reduced cost of a route rrr with respect to a dual solution (μ,μn,ν)(\mu,\mu_n,\nu)(μ,μn​,ν) is

cˉr=cr−∑i∈Inαi,rνi−∑n′=n+1Nβn′,rμn′−μn.\bar c_r=c_r-\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n}\alpha_{i,r}\nu_i-\sum_{n'=n+1}^N\beta_{n',r}\mu_{n'}-\mu_n .cˉr​=cr​−i∈In∑​αi,r​νi​−n′=n+1∑N​βn′,r​μn′​−μn​.

An upper bound ububub of SF1 is a number at least as large as the optimal cost of SF1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 2 (p. 19)

Let ububub be an upper bound of SF1, ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) the optimal cost of RF1, (μ,μn,ν)(\mu,\mu_n,\nu)(μ,μn​,ν) a dual optimal solution of RF1, and r∈Rnr\in\mathcal R^nr∈Rn. If

cr−∑i∈Inαi,rνi−∑n′=n+1Nβn′,rμn′−μn>ub−ϕ(RF1),c_r-\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n}\alpha_{i,r}\nu_i-\sum_{n'=n+1}^N\beta_{n',r}\mu_{n'}-\mu_n>ub-\phi(\mathrm{RF1}),cr​−i∈In∑​αi,r​νi​−n′=n+1∑N​βn′,r​μn′​−μn​>ub−ϕ(RF1),

then θr=0\theta_r=0θr​=0 in every optimal solution θ\thetaθ of SF1.

Milestones (Appendix G, p. 42)

For a route rrr, let Irn={i∣αi,r=0}\mathcal I^n_r=\{i\mid\alpha_{i,r}=0\}Irn​={i∣αi,r​=0}, let Rrn\mathcal R^n_rRrn​ be the routes that cover only locations in Irn\mathcal I^n_rIrn​, and let SF1r_rr​ be SF1 on Rrn\mathcal R^n_rRrn​ and Irn\mathcal I^n_rIrn​ with right-hand sides bn′−βn′,rb_{n'}-\beta_{n',r}bn′​−βn′,r​ and Kˉ−ζnn−1\bar K-\zeta^n_n-1Kˉ−ζnn​−1; RF1r_rr​ (75)–(79) is its LP relaxation, and ϕ(SF1r)∈R∪{+∞}\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)\in\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}ϕ(SF1r​)∈R∪{+∞} its optimal cost.

  1. (74) If cr+ϕ(SF1r)>ubc_r+\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)>ubcr​+ϕ(SF1r​)>ub, then rrr is in no optimal solution of SF1.
  2. Dual bound. For any dual feasible (μˉ,μˉn,νˉ)(\bar\mu,\bar\mu_n,\bar\nu)(μˉ​,μˉ​n​,νˉ) of RF1, the restriction (μˉ,μˉn,{νˉi}i∈Irn)(\bar\mu,\bar\mu_n,\{\bar\nu_i\}_{i\in\mathcal I^n_r})(μˉ​,μˉ​n​,{νˉi​}i∈Irn​​) is dual feasible for RF1r_rr​, and
∑n′μˉn′bn′−∑n′βn′,rμˉn′+μˉn(Kˉ−ζnn−1)+∑i∈Irnνˉi≤ϕ(SF1r).\sum_{n'}\bar\mu_{n'}b_{n'}-\sum_{n'}\beta_{n',r}\bar\mu_{n'}+\bar\mu_n(\bar K-\zeta^n_n-1)+\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n_r}\bar\nu_i\le\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r).n′∑​μˉ​n′​bn′​−n′∑​βn′,r​μˉ​n′​+μˉ​n​(Kˉ−ζnn​−1)+i∈Irn​∑​νˉi​≤ϕ(SF1r​).
  1. (80) ⇔ (81) For a dual optimal solution of RF1, crc_rcr​ plus the bound of milestone 2 exceeds ububub if and only if the reduced-cost condition of Lemma 2 holds.

Significance

The result. Lemma 2 turns one LP solve into an elimination test for every route at once. The route enumeration algorithm of §5.3 generates only routes whose reduced cost is at most a gap δ\deltaδ, raises δ\deltaδ until it reaches ub−ϕ(RF1)ub-\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ub−ϕ(RF1), and at that point the enumerated route set is guaranteed to contain every optimal solution of SF1. Without the lemma the algorithm would not certify optimality. The same algorithm also solves the single-period problems in the offline estimation stage of the paper's policy, so its correctness underlies all the computational results.

Formalizing it. The lemma is proved in the paper's Online Appendix (Appendix G, p. 42) in a few lines that rest on unstated conventions: the signs of the dual variables, the right-hand sides of SF1r_rr​, and the equality of ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) with the dual objective of a dual optimal solution, which is LP strong duality. The formalization pins each of these down. The strong-duality step is available on the platform as LinearOptimization.lp_strong_duality (proved, for general-form LPs indexed by Fin), included as a reference item. No part of this mission is formalized elsewhere.

Difficulty

The elimination test (74) and the dual bound are short combinatorial and weak-duality arguments. The step that does not go through by algebra alone is (80) ⇔ (81): it requires that the dual objective of the dual optimal solution equals ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1). Treating this equality as a hypothesis would make the step trivial and is excluded; the hypothesis is only that the dual solution maximizes the dual objective over the dual feasible set. Deriving the equality means applying LP strong duality to RF1, whose data are indexed by arbitrary finite types rather than by Fin, so a transport to the platform's general-form LP is needed. A second point is the passage from SF1 to SF1r_rr​: removing a route from an optimal solution must yield a feasible point of SF1r_rr​, which depends on the reduced right-hand sides and on the partitioning rows of SF1 forcing the other routes to avoid rrr's customers.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace OnDemandDelivery.RouteElim. Routes, locations and future periods are arbitrary Fintypes; route vectors are functions to ℝ; Kˉ\bar KKˉ and ζnn\zeta^n_nζnn​ are natural numbers and Kˉ−ζnn\bar K-\zeta^n_nKˉ−ζnn​ is computed in ℝ. The standing assumptions are αi,r,βn′,r∈{0,1}\alpha_{i,r},\beta_{n',r}\in\{0,1\}αi,r​,βn′,r​∈{0,1}, zˉkn′∈{0,1}\bar z^{n'}_k\in\{0,1\}zˉkn′​∈{0,1} and ∑kzˉkn′=1\sum_k\bar z^{n'}_k=1∑k​zˉkn′​=1 (pp. 15–16, (17), (21)).

Conventions committed to:

  • ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) is the attained minimum of the cost over the RF1 feasible set (IsLeast), not an arbitrary real.
  • The RF1 dual uses the standard signs for a minimization, which the paper does not print: μn′≤0\mu_{n'}\le0μn′​≤0, μn≤0\mu_n\le0μn​≤0, νi≥0\nu_i\ge0νi​≥0. "Dual optimal" means dual feasible and maximal for the dual objective.
  • "An upper bound ububub of SF1" is the weakest reading: ububub is at least the cost of every optimal solution of SF1.
  • "rrr cannot be in any optimal solution" is θr=0\theta_r=0θr​=0 for every optimal solution of the binary program SF1, not of RF1.
  • SF1r_rr​ has the reduced right-hand sides of (76)–(77); (76)'s unbarred zkn′z^{n'}_kzkn′​ is read as zˉkn′\bar z^{n'}_kzˉkn′​. ϕ(SF1r)\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)ϕ(SF1r​) is an EReal, +∞+\infty+∞ when SF1r_rr​ is infeasible, and (74) is stated in EReal.
  • The double sum ∑n′∑kμˉn′kzˉkn′\sum_{n'}\sum_k\bar\mu_{n'}k\bar z^{n'}_k∑n′​∑k​μˉ​n′​kzˉkn′​ is written ∑n′μˉn′bn′\sum_{n'}\bar\mu_{n'}b_{n'}∑n′​μˉ​n′​bn′​.
  • Milestone 2 assumes only dual feasibility, a strengthening of the page's dual optimality.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) is not a free real, the dual solution is optimal and not merely feasible, no hypothesis states ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) equals the dual objective, and the conclusion concerns optimal solutions of SF1.

Needed infrastructure: weak duality for the two LPs (elementary), and a bridge from RF1 to LinearOptimization.GeneralFormLP for strong duality, which is reusable for any LP stated over finite index types. Contributions of such a transport lemma are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Liu, Z. Luo, On-Demand Delivery from Stores: Dynamic Dispatching and Routing with Random Demand, arXiv:2107.13058v3, 2022; Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13058
  • R. Baldacci, N. Christofides, A. Mingozzi, An exact algorithm for the vehicle routing problem based on the set partitioning formulation with additional cuts, Mathematical Programming 115 (2008) 351–385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0178-5
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997 (Theorem 4.4, strong duality).
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Achieving High Individual Service Levels Without Safety Stock? Optimal Rationing Policy of Pooled Resources II: The Max-Weighted-Service Policy Is Almost Surely Asymptotically OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that serve several customers from shared capacity, such as a warehouse supplying several retailers, a flexible production line building several products, or an assemble-to-order system, often sign contracts that guarantee each customer an individual service level. Typical targets are the probability of filling a customer's whole demand (Type-I), the expected fraction of demand filled (Type-II or Type-III), each required to be at least a target βj\beta_jβj​. Once demand is realized, the firm must decide how to ration the pooled resources among customers. Jiang, Wang and Zhang (SSRN 3385089, published in Operations Research, doi:10.1287/opre.2022.2386) ask how much capacity suffices and which rationing policy meets all targets at least cost. The exact optimal policy is an infinite-dimensional program over randomized policies, (11). This mission formalizes the paper's answer to the second question: a simple, learnable policy is asymptotically optimal.

Setting

There are nnn customers N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} and mmm resources. The capacity vector c∈R≥0mc\in\mathbb R^m_{\ge0}c∈R≥0m​ is fixed. The demand D~∈R≥0n\tilde D\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0}D~∈R≥0n​ is random with law FFF. After observing a demand vector DDD, the firm chooses a solution (s,y)(s,y)(s,y) from a compact set P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D). Here sj≤Djs_j\le D_jsj​≤Dj​ is the demand of customer jjj that is fulfilled and yijy_{ij}yij​ is the amount of resource iii given to customer jjj. The solution costs f(y)f(y)f(y), with fff linear, and customer jjj receives service Rj(sj,Dj)≥0R_j(s_j,D_j)\ge0Rj​(sj​,Dj​)≥0.

  • A deterministic policy φ\varphiφ maps each demand vector to a feasible solution (s(φ,c,D),y(φ,c,D))(s(\varphi,c,D),y(\varphi,c,D))(s(φ,c,D),y(φ,c,D)). A randomized policy λ\lambdaλ picks a deterministic policy at random.
  • The service level of customer jjj under λ\lambdaλ is ∫ED~[Rj(sj(φ,c,D~),D~j)] dλ(φ)\int E_{\tilde D}[R_j(s_j(\varphi,c,\tilde D),\tilde D_j)]\,d\lambda(\varphi)∫ED~​[Rj​(sj​(φ,c,D~),D~j​)]dλ(φ), and the expected cost is ∫ED~[f(y(φ,c,D~))] dλ(φ)\int E_{\tilde D}[f(y(\varphi,c,\tilde D))]\,d\lambda(\varphi)∫ED~​[f(y(φ,c,D~))]dλ(φ).
  • The capacity ccc is feasible if some λ\lambdaλ meets every target βj∈(0,1)\beta_j\in(0,1)βj​∈(0,1). Obj(11)\mathrm{Obj}(11)Obj(11) is the least expected cost among such λ\lambdaλ.
  • For weights w∈R≥0nw\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0}w∈R≥0n​, the Max-Weighted-Service problem (16) is min⁡(y,s)∈P(c,D)f(y)−∑jwjRj(sj,Dj)\min_{(y,s)\in P(c,D)} f(y)-\sum_j w_jR_j(s_j,D_j)min(y,s)∈P(c,D)​f(y)−∑j​wj​Rj​(sj​,Dj​). The policy φw\varphi_wφw​ picks one of its optimal solutions for every DDD.
  • Algorithm 1 draws independent samples D(1),…,D(T)D^{(1)},\dots,D^{(T)}D(1),…,D(T) from FFF. It starts from w(1)=0w^{(1)}=0w(1)=0 and updates the weights by
wj(t+1)=[wj(t)+γT(βj−Rj(sj(φw(t),c,D(t)),Dj(t)))]+,γT=T−(1/2+ϵ).w^{(t+1)}_j=\Big[w^{(t)}_j+\gamma_T\big(\beta_j-R_j(s_j(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,D^{(t)}),D^{(t)}_j)\big)\Big]^+,\qquad \gamma_T=T^{-(1/2+\epsilon)}.wj(t+1)​=[wj(t)​+γT​(βj​−Rj​(sj​(φw(t)​,c,D(t)),Dj(t)​))]+,γT​=T−(1/2+ϵ).

It then adopts φw\varphi_wφw​ at a uniformly drawn iterate www.

The Lean development uses the same letters: detService, detCost, IsFeasible, obj11, mwsObjective, mwsIter, stepSize, G, Gstar, Lterm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 17)

Under Assumptions 1 and 3, if ccc is feasible and ϵ∈(0,1/2)\epsilon\in(0,1/2)ϵ∈(0,1/2), then almost surely

lim sup⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TED~t[f(y(φw(t),c,D~t))]≤Obj(11),lim inf⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TED~t[Rj(sj(φw(t),c,D~t),D~jt)]≥βj  ∀j.\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^TE_{\tilde D^t}\big[f(y(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,\tilde D^t))\big]\le\mathrm{Obj}(11),\qquad \liminf_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^TE_{\tilde D^t}\big[R_j(s_j(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,\tilde D^t),\tilde D^t_j)\big]\ge\beta_j\ \ \forall j.T→∞limsup​T1​t=1∑T​ED~t​[f(y(φw(t)​,c,D~t))]≤Obj(11),T→∞liminf​T1​t=1∑T​ED~t​[Rj​(sj​(φw(t)​,c,D~t),D~jt​)]≥βj​  ∀j.

Here D~t\tilde D^tD~t is a fresh copy of the demand, so each expectation is taken with the iterate fixed. The statement holds for every tie-breaking rule in (16).

Milestones (pp. 52–54)

  1. Weak duality: ∑jwjβj+E[f(y(φw))]−∑jwjE[Rj(sj(φw),D~j)]≤Obj(11)\sum_jw_j\beta_j+E[f(y(\varphi_w))]-\sum_jw_jE[R_j(s_j(\varphi_w),\tilde D_j)]\le\mathrm{Obj}(11)∑j​wj​βj​+E[f(y(φw​))]−∑j​wj​E[Rj​(sj​(φw​),D~j​)]≤Obj(11) for every w≥0w\ge0w≥0.
  2. Lemma 4 (Azuma's inequality) and Lemma 5 (Borel–Cantelli), both already proved on the platform and referenced.
  3. (57): a pathwise regret bound for the iterates against G(w∗)=sup⁡w≥0G(w)G(w^*)=\sup_{w\ge0}G(w)G(w∗)=supw≥0​G(w).
  4. The noise vanishes: γT∑t≤TLt→0\gamma_T\sum_{t\le T}L_t\to0γT​∑t≤T​Lt​→0 almost surely, for the martingale terms LtL_tLt​ of (55).
  5. Lemma 6: wj(T+1)/(TγT)→0w^{(T+1)}_j/(T\gamma_T)\to0wj(T+1)​/(TγT​)→0 almost surely.

Significance

Theorem 3 replaces an optimization over probability measures on a space of functions by a sequence of finite-dimensional problems (16) and a one-line dual update. Problem (16) is often solved greedily: under a polymatroid structure the paper's Theorem 4 turns it into an index rule. The result therefore justifies a practical rationing heuristic with a guarantee: a firm that runs Algorithm 1 on historical demand gets a policy whose average cost is asymptotically no worse than the optimum of (11), and whose service levels asymptotically meet every individual target.

On the formal side, the statement and its milestones combine a projected stochastic subgradient method, a triangular array of bounded martingale differences, and the weak duality of a semi-infinite program. The paper proves the result; none of it has been machine-checked. A formal proof must also repair the paper's argument for (28): the stochastic-dominance induction on p. 54 does not establish an almost-sure limit.

Difficulty

The obvious argument treats the iterates as a standard online gradient method with a fixed step. That handles the expected regret but not the almost-sure claim. The noise terms LtL_tLt​ depend on the horizon TTT, both through γT\gamma_TγT​ and through every earlier iterate, so they form a triangular array, not a single martingale. Classical stochastic-approximation theorems with decreasing steps do not apply. Feasibility of ccc enters only through the dual bound G(w∗)≤Obj(11)G(w^*)\le\mathrm{Obj}(11)G(w∗)≤Obj(11). The expectations ED~tE_{\tilde D^t}ED~t​ are over a fresh copy with the random iterate held fixed, and that must be kept separate from the sample D(t)D^{(t)}D(t) the iterate itself uses. The service half (28) needs a bound on the growth of the dual weights (Lemma 6), and that bound itself needs the cost to be bounded on feasible allocations.

Formalization scope

  • Indices are 0-based: customers and resources are Fin n and Fin m. The Lean iterate at index ttt is the page's w(t+1)w^{(t+1)}w(t+1), and ∑t=1T\sum_{t=1}^T∑t=1T​ becomes a sum over 0,…,T−10,\dots,T-10,…,T−1.
  • Randomized policies are finite mixtures of measurable deterministic policies. Every quantity here depends on a mixture only through finitely many expectations, so this is no restriction.
  • Selections: the theorems quantify over every selection w↦φww\mapsto\varphi_ww↦φw​ of optimal solutions of (16). It is assumed jointly measurable in (w,D)(w,D)(w,D), so that the iterates are random variables.
  • Sampling: all horizons TTT read the first TTT entries of one i.i.d. sequence. That single probability space is what "almost surely as T→∞T\to\inftyT→∞" requires.
  • Limits: lim sup⁡≤\limsup\lelimsup≤ and lim inf⁡≥\liminf\geliminf≥ are written as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually in TTT".
  • Norms: the Euclidean norm in (57) is a written-out sum of squares, because Lean's default norm on Fin n → ℝ is the sup norm.
  • Added hypotheses, beyond Assumptions 1 and 3 and the standing assumptions of §1.1:
    • Rj≥0R_j\ge0Rj​≥0 and jointly measurable;
    • s≤Ds\le Ds≤D on P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D) for D≥0D\ge0D≥0; instances whose page-level P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D) is empty for negative DDD extend it by P(c,D+)P(c,D^+)P(c,D+);
    • ∣f∣≤K|f|\le K∣f∣≤K on feasible allocations, which the paper's proof of Lemma 6 uses implicitly.

Two formalizations would make (27) trivial, and both are ruled out. Obj(11)\mathrm{Obj}(11)Obj(11) is the infimum of the cost over feasible mixtures; it is neither defined from the algorithm nor identified with G(w∗)G(w^*)G(w∗). Feasibility and ∣f∣≤K|f|\le K∣f∣≤K keep that infimum from being Lean's junk value 000. The selection depends on www alone, not on β\betaβ or on the sample path.

The development needs Bochner integrals, independence (iIndepFun), conditional expectation and the referenced Azuma and Borel–Cantelli results. The triangular-array strong law for bounded martingale differences with summable exponential tails is reusable beyond this mission. Contributions toward any milestone, or a repaired proof of (28), are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Jiang, S. Wang, J. Zhang, Achieving High Individual Service-Levels without Safety Stock? Optimal Rationing Policy of Pooled Resources, SSRN 3385089 (version of 31 July 2021); Operations Research (2023). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3385089, https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2386
  • K. Azuma, Weighted sums of certain dependent random variables, Tôhoku Mathematical Journal 19 (1967) 357–367. https://doi.org/10.2748/tmj/1178243286
  • A. Shapiro, On duality theory of conic linear problems, in Semi-Infinite Programming, Kluwer (2001) 135–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3403-4_7
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19 (2009) 1574–1609. https://doi.org/10.1137/070704277
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming 2: The Randomized Stochastic Gradient-Free Method with Gaussian Smoothing Bounds (1/L)E‖∇f(x_R)‖² for Nonconvex fResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in simulation-based design, reinforcement learning and machine learning can be evaluated but not differentiated. Their objective is an expectation f(x)=E[F(x,ξ)]f(x) = \mathbb E[F(x,\xi)]f(x)=E[F(x,ξ)] that can only be sampled through noisy function values F(x,ξ)F(x,\xi)F(x,ξ). Gradients may be unavailable because the model is a black box, a simulator, or a legacy code. Methods for this setting are called zeroth-order or derivative-free stochastic methods. The objective fff is often nonconvex, so the realistic target is an approximately stationary point, ∥∇f(x)∥2≤ϵ\|\nabla f(x)\|^2 \le \epsilon∥∇f(x)∥2≤ϵ, not a global minimizer.

Ghadimi and Lan (arXiv:1309.5549; SIAM J. Optim. 23(4), 2013) gave the first complexity bounds for stochastic zeroth-order methods on nonconvex problems. Their randomized stochastic gradient free (RSGF) method combines two ingredients. The first is the Gaussian smoothing and random finite-difference estimator of Nesterov and Spokoiny (Found. Comput. Math. 17, 2017; preprint 2011). The second is a randomized stopping rule that outputs an iterate chosen at random along the trajectory. The resulting bound has become the standard reference point for derivative-free nonconvex stochastic optimization.

Timeline:

  • 1952: Kiefer and Wolfowitz introduce finite-difference stochastic approximation.
  • 2011: Nesterov and Spokoiny analyze Gaussian random gradient-free oracles for convex and deterministic nonconvex problems.
  • 2013: Ghadimi and Lan prove the nonconvex stochastic rate of the RSGF method (Theorem 3.2) and its O(n/ϵ2)O(n/\epsilon^2)O(n/ϵ2) complexity (Corollary 3.3).

Setting

Let Rn\mathbb R^nRn be Euclidean space and let ξ\xiξ be a random vector with distribution PPP on a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ. The problem is

f∗:=inf⁡x∈Rn{f(x):=∫ΞF(x,ξ) dP(ξ)}.(3.1)f^* := \inf_{x\in\mathbb R^n}\Big\{ f(x) := \int_\Xi F(x,\xi)\,dP(\xi) \Big\}. \tag{3.1}f∗:=x∈Rninf​{f(x):=∫Ξ​F(x,ξ)dP(ξ)}.(3.1)

The sample functions F(⋅,ξ)F(\cdot,\xi)F(⋅,ξ) lie in CL1,1(Rn)\mathcal C^{1,1}_L(\mathbb R^n)CL1,1​(Rn) almost surely: they are differentiable, and their gradients are LLL-Lipschitz. Two assumptions describe the noise. Assumption A1 concerns the first-order oracle G(x,ξ)=∇xF(x,ξ)G(x,\xi) = \nabla_x F(x,\xi)G(x,ξ)=∇x​F(x,ξ): it is unbiased, E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x)\mathbb E[G(x,\xi)] = \nabla f(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x), and has variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2. Assumption A3 says the zeroth-order oracle is unbiased, E[F(x,ξ)]=f(x)\mathbb E[F(x,\xi)] = f(x)E[F(x,ξ)]=f(x).

For a smoothing parameter μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and an nnn-dimensional standard Gaussian vector uuu, the Gaussian smoothing of fff is fμ(x)=Eu[f(x+μu)]f_\mu(x) = \mathbb E_u[f(x+\mu u)]fμ​(x)=Eu​[f(x+μu)] (3.3). The RSGF method starts from x1x_1x1​ and uses stepsizes γk\gamma_kγk​. At step kkk it draws a fresh sample ξk\xi_kξk​ and a fresh Gaussian direction uku_kuk​, forms the zeroth-order estimator

Gμ(xk,ξk,uk)=F(xk+μuk,ξk)−F(xk,ξk)μ uk,(3.12)G_\mu(x_k,\xi_k,u_k) = \frac{F(x_k+\mu u_k,\xi_k) - F(x_k,\xi_k)}{\mu}\,u_k, \tag{3.12}Gμ​(xk​,ξk​,uk​)=μF(xk​+μuk​,ξk​)−F(xk​,ξk​)​uk​,(3.12)

and sets xk+1=xk−γkGμ(xk,ξk,uk)x_{k+1} = x_k - \gamma_k G_\mu(x_k,\xi_k,u_k)xk+1​=xk​−γk​Gμ​(xk​,ξk​,uk​) (3.13). The output is xRx_RxR​, where the random iteration count R∈{1,…,N}R \in \{1,\dots,N\}R∈{1,…,N} has the probability mass function

PR(k)=γk−2L(n+4)γk2∑j=1N[γj−2L(n+4)γj2].(3.15)P_R(k) = \frac{\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{j=1}^N[\gamma_j - 2L(n+4)\gamma_j^2]}. \tag{3.15}PR​(k)=∑j=1N​[γj​−2L(n+4)γj2​]γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​​.(3.15)

In the Lean development, fff is objective P F, GμG_\muGμ​ is szoGrad (the published RandomGradFree.Shared.oracle applied to F(⋅,ξ)F(\cdot,\xi)F(⋅,ξ)), and fμf_\mufμ​ is the published RandomGradFree.Shared.smoothing. The smoothing parameter is μs, because μ names the probability measure.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 a)

Let 0<γk<1/[2(n+4)L]0 < \gamma_k < 1/[2(n+4)L]0<γk​<1/[2(n+4)L] for k=1,…,Nk = 1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N, with N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, and let Df2=2(f(x1)−f∗)/LD_f^2 = 2(f(x_1)-f^*)/LDf2​=2(f(x1​)−f∗)/L. Then

1L E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤Df2+2μ2(n+4)(1+L(n+4)2∑k=1N(γk4+Lγk2))+2(n+4)σ2∑k=1Nγk2∑k=1N[γk−2L(n+4)γk2].(3.16)\frac1L\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2 \le \frac{D_f^2 + 2\mu^2(n+4)\big(1 + L(n+4)^2\sum_{k=1}^N(\frac{\gamma_k}{4} + L\gamma_k^2)\big) + 2(n+4)\sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{k=1}^N[\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2]}. \tag{3.16}L1​E∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤∑k=1N​[γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​]Df2​+2μ2(n+4)(1+L(n+4)2∑k=1N​(4γk​​+Lγk2​))+2(n+4)σ2∑k=1N​γk2​​.(3.16)

The stepsizes are left free, so every stepsize policy specializes the goal.

Companions

  • Theorem 3.2 b), (3.17): for convex fff with a minimizer x∗x^*x∗, the bound on E[f(xR)−f∗]\mathbb E[f(x_R) - f^*]E[f(xR​)−f∗].
  • Corollary 3.3, (3.26): for the constant stepsizes (3.24) and μ≤Df/((n+4)2N)\mu \le D_f/((n+4)\sqrt{2N})μ≤Df​/((n+4)2N​),
1L E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤12(n+4)LDf2N+4σn+4N(D~+Df2D~).\frac1L\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2 \le \frac{12(n+4)LD_f^2}{N} + \frac{4\sigma\sqrt{n+4}}{\sqrt N}\Big(\tilde D + \frac{D_f^2}{\tilde D}\Big).L1​E∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤N12(n+4)LDf2​​+N​4σn+4​​(D~+D~Df2​​).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof.

  • Properties of the smoothing. These are Theorem 3.1 a)–c): fμf_\mufμ​ has an LLL-Lipschitz gradient given by (3.4), ∣fμ−f∣≤μ22Ln|f_\mu - f| \le \frac{\mu^2}{2}Ln∣fμ​−f∣≤2μ2​Ln (3.5), the gradient bound (3.6), and the second-moment bound (3.7). Three of these are already on the platform and are referenced. Two consequences follow, (3.9) and (3.11).
  • Unbiasedness, (3.14): the estimator GμG_\muGμ​ is unbiased for ∇fμ\nabla f_\mu∇fμ​.
  • The proof chain of Theorem 3.2. The pathwise descent inequality (3.19), the martingale identity (3.20) and the conditional second-moment bound (3.21) combine into the weighted bound (3.23). The RRR-weighting identity converts (3.23) into (3.16).

Significance

The theorem shows that function values alone suffice to find approximately stationary points of nonconvex stochastic programs. The price is a factor of the dimension nnn: with constant stepsizes the RSGF method needs O(n/ϵ2)O(n/\epsilon^2)O(n/ϵ2) iterations, against O(1/ϵ2)O(1/\epsilon^2)O(1/ϵ2) for the first-order RSG method. The randomized output rule and the analysis through fμf_\mufμ​ are reused in later zeroth-order methods, including two-phase variants, mirror-descent variants and variance-reduced schemes.

The result is proved in the paper. It is not formalized anywhere known to this mission. The platform already holds parts of the Gaussian-smoothing theory from the Nesterov–Spokoiny series, but only for convex problems with exact function values. This mission adds:

  • the nonconvex form of the second-moment bound (3.7);
  • the gradient-approximation bound (3.6);
  • the stochastic sampling model with conditional expectations;
  • the first machine-checkable statement of a nonconvex stochastic zeroth-order rate.

Difficulty

The first idea is to treat the RSGF method as the first-order RSG method run on fμf_\mufμ​ with the unbiased estimator GμG_\muGμ​, and to quote the RSG bound. This fails, because the variance E∥Gμ−∇fμ∥2\mathbb E\|G_\mu - \nabla f_\mu\|^2E∥Gμ​−∇fμ​∥2 has no uniform bound: by (3.7) it grows with ∥∇f(xk)∥2\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2∥∇f(xk​)∥2 at the random iterate. The analysis has to carry that term along and absorb it into the left side, which is where the weights γk−2L(n+4)γk2\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​ come from. It must also move between ∇fμ\nabla f_\mu∇fμ​ and ∇f\nabla f∇f through (3.6) at a cost polynomial in nnn.

On the formal side, three obstacles stand out.

  • The Gaussian moment estimates behind (3.6) and (3.7) need bounds on E∥u∥p\mathbb E\|u\|^pE∥u∥p up to p=6p = 6p=6 for a standard Gaussian vector.
  • Conditional expectations with respect to σ(ζ[k−1])\sigma(\zeta_{[k-1]})σ(ζ[k−1]​) are taken at random iterates that depend on the past, so independence of the fresh samples must be used carefully.
  • Integrability must be established for every quantity before expectations can be manipulated.

Formalization scope

  • Space. Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The constants (n+3)(n+3)(n+3), (n+4)(n+4)(n+4), (n+6)(n+6)(n+6) use the same natural number nnn. The Gaussian is Mathlib's stdGaussian.
  • Iterates. They are indexed from 111, and RRR takes values in {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}.
  • Optimal values. f∗f^*f∗ is the infimum of fff (IsGLB), with fff bounded below. The paper's fμ∗:=min⁡fμf^*_\mu := \min f_\mufμ∗​:=minfμ​ (3.10) is read as an infimum, since the minimum need not be attained.
  • Smoothness. F(⋅,ξ)∈CL1,1F(\cdot,\xi) \in \mathcal C^{1,1}_LF(⋅,ξ)∈CL1,1​ is required for PPP-almost every ξ\xiξ, as on the page.
  • Assumption A1 is stated at every point xxx for G=∇xFG = \nabla_x FG=∇x​F.
  • Assumption A3 is the definition of fff, with F(x,⋅)F(x,\cdot)F(x,⋅) integrable.

The following are explicit additions; the paper leaves them implicit.

  • Sampling. The samples ξk∼P\xi_k \sim Pξk​∼P and uk∼N(0,In)u_k \sim \mathcal N(0,I_n)uk​∼N(0,In​) are measurable and mutually independent, and RRR is independent of all of them.
  • Measurability and integrability. FFF is jointly measurable, and ∇xF(x,⋅)\nabla_x F(x,\cdot)∇x​F(x,⋅) is integrable.
  • Stepsizes are positive.
  • Corollary 3.3 assumes σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0.

Every conclusion about an expectation also asserts the integrability of its integrand. A non-integrable function has Lean integral 000, so a bound without this conjunct could hold for the wrong reason.

The goal is stated about the objects of the method only: FFF, PPP, fff, the run (3.12)–(3.13), RRR and the constants. It does not mention fμf_\mufμ​, Δk\Delta_kΔk​ or the filtration, so it cannot be discharged by choosing an auxiliary object.

A complete development needs:

  • Gaussian moment bounds and differentiation under the Gaussian integral;
  • conditional expectation with respect to the natural filtration of an independent sequence;
  • the descent lemma for CL1,1\mathcal C^{1,1}_LCL1,1​ functions.

The Gaussian-smoothing lemmas (3.6), (3.7) and (3.9) are reusable by any zeroth-order mission. Contributions of proofs of individual milestones are welcome, as are alternative proofs of (3.7) without Nesterov's bound.

Selected references

  • S. Ghadimi and G. Lan, Stochastic first- and zeroth-order methods for nonconvex stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 23(4):2341–2368, 2013. Preprint arXiv:1309.5549v1, the version cited here. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5549
  • Y. Nesterov and V. Spokoiny, Random gradient-free minimization of convex functions, Found. Comput. Math. 17:527–566, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-015-9296-2
  • J. Kiefer and J. Wolfowitz, Stochastic estimation of the maximum of a regression function, Ann. Math. Statist. 23(3):462–466, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729392
18 thms3 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing I: The Offloading GNEP Has a SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Mobile devices run applications whose computational load can exceed what the device itself can serve in reasonable time and with reasonable battery drain. Computation offloading sends part of that load elsewhere: to a cloudlet, a small cluster of servers one wireless hop away, or to a distant cloud reached through the wide-area network. The cloudlet is shared, so its response time depends on how much load all users send to it, and each user's best offloading decision depends on everybody else's. Cardellini, De Nitto Personé, Di Valerio, Facchinei, Grassi, Lo Presti and Piccialli (Math. Program., 2016, DOI 10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6) model this as a non-cooperative game between users and study it with the tools of variational inequalities.

The game is a generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP): not only the costs but also the feasible sets of the players depend on the other players' choices, because all users share one capacity constraint on the cloudlet. GNEPs with a shared convex constraint (jointly convex games) can be reduced to a single variational inequality, a reduction the paper takes from Facchinei, Fischer and Piccialli (Oper. Res. Lett. 2007, DOI 10.1016/j.orl.2006.03.004); Facchinei and Kanzow survey the area (Ann. Oper. Res. 2010, DOI 10.1007/s10479-009-0653-x). This mission formalizes the first step of the paper's analysis: the game has an equilibrium.

Setting

There are NNN users u=1,…,Nu=1,\dots,Nu=1,…,N and three tiers I={m,clet,cloud}I=\{m,\mathrm{clet},\mathrm{cloud}\}I={m,clet,cloud} (mobile device, cloudlet, cloud). User uuu chooses the fractions xu=(xu,m,xu,clet,xu,cloud)x_u=(x_{u,m},x_{u,\mathrm{clet}},x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}})xu​=(xu,m​,xu,clet​,xu,cloud​) of its tasks run on each tier. A profile is x=(x1,…,xN)∈R3Nx=(x_1,\dots,x_N)\in\mathbb R^{3N}x=(x1​,…,xN​)∈R3N.

The data are reals αu,βu,γu,δu\alpha_u,\beta_u,\gamma_u,\delta_uαu​,βu​,γu​,δu​ (arrival rates divided by service or transfer rates), powers Pu,m,Pu,t,Pu,max⁡P_{u,m},P_{u,t},P_{u,\max}Pu,m​,Pu,t​,Pu,max​, the number n≥1n\ge1n≥1 of cloudlet servers, the offloadable fraction χ∈(0,1]\chi\in(0,1]χ∈(0,1] and a utilisation cap Umax⁡U_{\max}Umax​. Assumption A requires Umax⁡U_{\max}Umax​ and every αu,δu\alpha_u,\delta_uαu​,δu​ to lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

User uuu's private feasible set is

K~u={xu∈R+3: ∑i∈Ixu,i=1, xu,clet+xu,cloud≤χ, αuPu,mxu,m+βuPu,t(xu,clet+xu,cloud)≤Pu,max⁡},\tilde K_u=\Big\{x_u\in\mathbb R^3_+:\ \textstyle\sum_{i\in I}x_{u,i}=1,\ x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}}\le\chi,\ \alpha_uP_{u,m}x_{u,m}+\beta_uP_{u,t}(x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}})\le P_{u,\max}\Big\},K~u​={xu​∈R+3​: ∑i∈I​xu,i​=1, xu,clet​+xu,cloud​≤χ, αu​Pu,m​xu,m​+βu​Pu,t​(xu,clet​+xu,cloud​)≤Pu,max​},

the shared constraint is Ω={x:1n∑vδvxv,clet≤Umax⁡}\Omega=\{x:\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}\le U_{\max}\}Ω={x:n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​≤Umax​}, and the joint feasible set is K=(∏uK~u)∩ΩK=\big(\prod_u\tilde K_u\big)\cap\OmegaK=(∏u​K~u​)∩Ω. User uuu minimises the mean response cost

λuRu(xu,x−u)=αuxu,m1−αuxu,m+βuxu,clet+γuxu,cloud+δuxu,clet1−1n∑vδvxv,clet\lambda_uR_u(x_u,x_{-u})=\frac{\alpha_ux_{u,m}}{1-\alpha_ux_{u,m}}+\beta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+\gamma_ux_{u,\mathrm{cloud}}+\frac{\delta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}}{1-\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}}λu​Ru​(xu​,x−u​)=1−αu​xu,m​αu​xu,m​​+βu​xu,clet​+γu​xu,cloud​+1−n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​δu​xu,clet​​

over {y∈K~u:(y,x−u)∈Ω}\{y\in\tilde K_u:(y,x_{-u})\in\Omega\}{y∈K~u​:(y,x−u​)∈Ω}. A solution of the GNEP is a profile xˉ∈K\bar x\in Kxˉ∈K at which no user can lower its cost by a deviation that keeps the shared constraint satisfied.

The map F:R3N→R3NF:\mathbb R^{3N}\to\mathbb R^{3N}F:R3N→R3N stacks the users' partial gradients,

F(x)u=(αu(1−αuxu,m)2, βu+δu1−1n∑v≠uδvxv,clet(1−1n∑vδvxv,clet)2, γu),F(x)_u=\Big(\frac{\alpha_u}{(1-\alpha_ux_{u,m})^2},\ \beta_u+\delta_u\frac{1-\frac1n\sum_{v\ne u}\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}}{\big(1-\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}\big)^2},\ \gamma_u\Big),F(x)u​=((1−αu​xu,m​)2αu​​, βu​+δu​(1−n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​)21−n1​∑v=u​δv​xv,clet​​, γu​),

and xˉ\bar xxˉ solves the variational inequality VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) if xˉ∈K\bar x\in Kxˉ∈K and F(xˉ)⊤(x−xˉ)≥0F(\bar x)^\top(x-\bar x)\ge0F(xˉ)⊤(x−xˉ)≥0 for all x∈Kx\in Kx∈K. Such solutions are the variational (or normalized) solutions of the game.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 12)

Under Assumption A, and provided every K~u\tilde K_uK~u​ is nonempty,

∃ xˉ∈K  ∀u  ∀y∈K~u with (y,xˉ−u)∈Ω:λuRu(xˉu,xˉ−u)≤λuRu(y,xˉ−u).\exists\,\bar x\in K\ \ \forall u\ \ \forall y\in\tilde K_u\ \text{with}\ (y,\bar x_{-u})\in\Omega:\quad \lambda_uR_u(\bar x_u,\bar x_{-u})\le\lambda_uR_u(y,\bar x_{-u}).∃xˉ∈K  ∀u  ∀y∈K~u​ with (y,xˉ−u​)∈Ω:λu​Ru​(xˉu​,xˉ−u​)≤λu​Ru​(y,xˉ−u​).

Milestones

  1. F(x)u=∇xuλuRu(x)F(x)_u=\nabla_{x_u}\lambda_uR_u(x)F(x)u​=∇xu​​λu​Ru​(x) wherever both denominators are positive (p. 11).
  2. For fixed x−ux_{-u}x−u​, user uuu's feasible set is convex and its cost is convex on it (p. 11).
  3. Every solution of VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) is a solution of the GNEP (proof of Proposition 1).
  4. FFF is continuous on KKK, and KKK is compact and convex (proof of Proposition 1).
  5. VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) has a solution (proof of Proposition 1, citing Facchinei–Pang, Corollary 2.2.5).

Milestones 3 and 5 give the goal; milestones 1 and 2 are what milestone 3 rests on, and milestone 4 is what milestone 5 rests on. The platform's Proved statement of Brouwer's fixed-point theorem (AGT.brouwer_fixed_point) is included as a reference item for milestone 5.

Significance

The result. Existence of an equilibrium is the precondition for everything else in the paper: the monotonicity of FFF (Theorem 1), the reformulation with a cloudlet price as an extended game (Theorem 2), and the distributed algorithm whose convergence is Theorem 3. Proposition 1 also shows that variational solutions exist, which is the specific equilibrium the paper's algorithm computes.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, in three lines that cite two textbook theorems. The work here is to make those citations machine-checked for this concrete model: that the closed-form FFF is indeed the stacked partial gradient, that each user's problem is convex despite the rational cost terms, that the VI-to-GNEP reduction holds, and that a VI on a compact convex set with continuous map has a solution. None of these steps is formalized in Mathlib for GNEPs; the last is a finite-dimensional Hartman–Stampacchia theorem, which Mathlib does not contain. No part of this paper has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to apply Kakutani's theorem to the best-response correspondence. With a shared constraint this needs lower semicontinuity of the feasible-set map x−u↦{y∈K~u:(y,x−u)∈Ω}x_{-u}\mapsto\{y\in\tilde K_u:(y,x_{-u})\in\Omega\}x−u​↦{y∈K~u​:(y,x−u​)∈Ω}, which is a separate argument, and Kakutani is not in Mathlib either. The VI route avoids it but has its own points. The cost has the rational terms αuxu,m/(1−αuxu,m)\alpha_ux_{u,m}/(1-\alpha_ux_{u,m})αu​xu,m​/(1−αu​xu,m​) and δuxu,clet/D(x)\delta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}/D(x)δu​xu,clet​/D(x), and convexity and differentiability must be checked on the region where the denominators are positive; on a user's feasible set this needs Assumption A and the shared constraint, not the private constraints alone. The existence of a VI solution needs a fixed-point theorem on a compact convex set, and Mathlib has no Brouwer theorem. That is why the platform's statement of it is attached to this mission.

Formalization scope

Users are Fin N (0-based) and tiers an inductive type Tier with three constructors; a profile is Fin N → Tier → ℝ. The inner product a⊤ba^\top ba⊤b is the coordinatewise double sum (not Mathlib's sup norm on Pi types). The cost and FFF are the paper's closed forms; FFF is not defined as a derivative, so milestone 1 has content. Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 makes both formulas junk where a denominator vanishes. Under Assumption A both denominators are positive on KKK and at every point the GNEP definition compares, and milestone 1 assumes the two positivity conditions explicitly.

Standing hypotheses in every statement: Assumption A, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, 0<χ≤10<\chi\le10<χ≤1. Nothing is assumed of βu,γu\beta_u,\gamma_uβu​,γu​ or the powers, as in the paper. Added hypothesis: every K~u\tilde K_uK~u​ is nonempty, in the goal and in milestone 5. The printed proposition is false without it: if 0<Pu,max⁡<min⁡(αuPu,m,βuPu,t)0<P_{u,\max}<\min(\alpha_uP_{u,m},\beta_uP_{u,t})0<Pu,max​<min(αu​Pu,m​,βu​Pu,t​) then K~u=∅\tilde K_u=\emptysetK~u​=∅, so K=∅K=\emptysetK=∅. The condition is equivalent to K≠∅K\ne\emptysetK=∅. Milestone 4 adds convexity of KKK to the paper's "continuous and compact".

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: KKK cannot be empty under the added hypothesis, FFF is not a derivative by definition, no statement evaluates the cost at a point with a vanishing denominator, and the GNEP keeps the shared constraint in each player's feasible set (dropping it gives a different game, a NEP).

Contributions welcome: a finite-dimensional Hartman–Stampacchia theorem (reusable well beyond this mission), the general VI-implies-GNEP reduction for jointly convex games, and proofs of the model-specific milestones.

Selected references

  • V. Cardellini, V. De Nitto Personé, V. Di Valerio, F. Facchinei, V. Grassi, F. Lo Presti, V. Piccialli, A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing, Mathematical Programming (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6 (accepted manuscript: IRIS Sapienza, handle 11573/779661)
  • F. Facchinei, A. Fischer, V. Piccialli, On generalized Nash games and variational inequalities, Operations Research Letters 35 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2006.03.004
  • F. Facchinei, C. Kanzow, Generalized Nash equilibrium problems, Annals of Operations Research 175 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0653-x
  • F. Facchinei, J.-S. Pang, Finite-Dimensional Variational Inequalities and Complementarity Problems, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97543
8 thms3 active usersReviewed
Machine LearningOperations ResearchOptimal Transport·Captain: mikedeng1

Regularization via Mass Transportation II: Wasserstein-Robust Linear Regression Equals Empirical Loss plus a Dual-Norm PenaltyResearch Paper

Motivation

Ordinary least squares and its robust relatives (least absolute deviations, Huber, ϵ\epsilonϵ-insensitive and quantile regression) fit a linear predictor by minimizing an average loss over the training sample. That average estimates the out-of-sample error poorly when the sample is small, and the usual fix is to add a regularization penalty such as a norm of the weights. Choosing that penalty is often a heuristic. Distributionally robust optimization gives one principled derivation of it: hedge against every data-generating distribution that is close to the empirical one in a Wasserstein distance, and minimize the worst-case expected loss.

S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, D. Kuhn and P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Regularization via Mass Transportation (arXiv:1710.10016v3, 2019; JMLR 20, 2019), show that for linear regression with a convex Lipschitz loss this worst-case problem is exactly a regularized empirical risk problem, with an explicit dual-norm penalty. The same identity appears for the logistic loss in Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression (NeurIPS 2015, arXiv:1509.09259). For a general convex loss it is Theorem 10 of the tutorial by Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen and Shafieezadeh-Abadeh (arXiv:1908.08729). Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627) obtain the square-root Lasso from a type-2 transport cost. This mission formalizes the regression theorem of the first paper, Theorem 3.1(ii) on p. 8. The source PDF is the arXiv preprint v3, and every page and label cited here refers to it.

Setting

Data. Inputs are x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn and outputs are y∈Ry\in\mathbb Ry∈R. A pair is written ξ=(x,y)∈Rn+1\xi=(x,y)\in\mathbb R^{n+1}ξ=(x,y)∈Rn+1. The training samples are (x^i,y^i)(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)(x^i​,y^​i​) for i=1,…,Ni=1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N, and P^N=1N∑i=1Nδ(x^i,y^i)\hat{\mathbb P}_N=\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N\delta_{(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)}P^N​=N1​∑i=1N​δ(x^i​,y^​i​)​ is their empirical distribution (§2.1, p. 5).

Hypotheses and loss. A weight vector w∈Rnw\in\mathbb R^nw∈Rn defines the linear hypothesis h(x)=⟨w,x⟩h(x)=\langle w,x\rangleh(x)=⟨w,x⟩. A univariate convex loss L:R→RL:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RL:R→R defines the regression loss ℓ(⟨w,x⟩,y)=L(⟨w,x⟩−y)\ell(\langle w,x\rangle,y)=L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)ℓ(⟨w,x⟩,y)=L(⟨w,x⟩−y) (§3.1, p. 8). The residual ⟨w,x⟩−y\langle w,x\rangle-y⟨w,x⟩−y is the pairing of ξ\xiξ with the vector (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1).

Norms. Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1 carries an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ with dual norm ∥z∥∗=sup⁡{⟨z,ξ⟩:∥ξ∥≤1}\|z\|_*=\sup\{\langle z,\xi\rangle:\|\xi\|\le1\}∥z∥∗​=sup{⟨z,ξ⟩:∥ξ∥≤1} (§1.1, p. 4). The Lipschitz modulus of LLL is lip(L)=sup⁡z≠z′∣L(z)−L(z′)∣/∣z−z′∣\mathrm{lip}(L)=\sup_{z\ne z'}|L(z)-L(z')|/|z-z'|lip(L)=supz=z′​∣L(z)−L(z′)∣/∣z−z′∣, and the convex conjugate is L∗(θ)=sup⁡zθz−L(z)L^*(\theta)=\sup_z\theta z-L(z)L∗(θ)=supz​θz−L(z) (§1.1).

Wasserstein ball. With transport cost d(ξ,ξ′)=∥ξ−ξ′∥d(\xi,\xi')=\|\xi-\xi'\|d(ξ,ξ′)=∥ξ−ξ′∥, the Wasserstein distance (Definition 2.2, p. 7) is

W(Q,Q′)=inf⁡Π∫d(ξ,ξ′) Π(dξ,dξ′),W(\mathbb Q,\mathbb Q')=\inf_\Pi\int d(\xi,\xi')\,\Pi(\mathrm d\xi,\mathrm d\xi'),W(Q,Q′)=Πinf​∫d(ξ,ξ′)Π(dξ,dξ′),

where the infimum runs over couplings Π\PiΠ of Q\mathbb QQ and Q′\mathbb Q'Q′. The ball of radius ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0 is Bρ(P^N)={Q:Q(Ξ)=1, W(Q,P^N)≤ρ}\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)=\{\mathbb Q:\mathbb Q(\Xi)=1,\ W(\mathbb Q,\hat{\mathbb P}_N)\le\rho\}Bρ​(P^N​)={Q:Q(Ξ)=1, W(Q,P^N​)≤ρ} (3). The distributionally robust regression problem is

inf⁡w sup⁡Q∈Bρ(P^N)EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)].(4)\inf_w\ \sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}\big[L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)\big].\qquad(4)winf​ Q∈Bρ​(P^N​)sup​EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)].(4)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1(ii), p. 8

Let Ξ=Rn+1\Xi=\mathbb R^{n+1}Ξ=Rn+1, ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, N≥1N\ge1N≥1, and let LLL be nonnegative, convex and Lipschitz continuous. Then for every www

sup⁡Q∈Bρ(P^N)EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)]=1N∑i=1NL(⟨w,x^i⟩−y^i)+ρ lip(L) ∥(w,−1)∥∗,\sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}\big[L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)\big]=\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^NL(\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle-\hat y_i)+\rho\,\mathrm{lip}(L)\,\|(w,-1)\|_*,Q∈Bρ​(P^N​)sup​EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)]=N1​i=1∑N​L(⟨w,x^i​⟩−y^​i​)+ρlip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​,

so (4) and the regularized problem (6) have the same optimal value.

Milestones

  1. Lemma A.1 (p. 28). The worst case over the ball equals inf⁡λ≥0λρ+1N∑isup⁡ξ[I(ξ)−λd(ξ,ξ^i)]\inf_{\lambda\ge0}\lambda\rho+\frac1N\sum_i\sup_\xi[I(\xi)-\lambda d(\xi,\hat\xi_i)]infλ≥0​λρ+N1​∑i​supξ​[I(ξ)−λd(ξ,ξ^​i​)]. This milestone is linked to the published, proved WassersteinDRO.Duality.strong_duality_worst_case_risk_v2, which covers it for ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0.
  2. Lemma A.3 (p. 29). For γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, sup⁡ζL(⟨β,ζ⟩)−γ∥ζ−ζ^∥\sup_\zeta L(\langle\beta,\zeta\rangle)-\gamma\|\zeta-\hat\zeta\|supζ​L(⟨β,ζ⟩)−γ∥ζ−ζ^​∥ equals L(⟨β,ζ^⟩)L(\langle\beta,\hat\zeta\rangle)L(⟨β,ζ^​⟩) if lip(L)∥β∥∗≤γ\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*\le\gammalip(L)∥β∥∗​≤γ, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  3. End of the proof of Lemma A.3 (p. 30). lip(L)=sup⁡{∣θ∣:L∗(θ)<∞}\mathrm{lip}(L)=\sup\{|\theta|:L^*(\theta)<\infty\}lip(L)=sup{∣θ∣:L∗(θ)<∞}.
  4. The inf-over-λ\lambdaλ display in the proof of Theorem 3.1(ii) (pp. 30–31). The worst case equals inf⁡{λρ+1N∑iL(⟨w,x^i⟩−y^i):λ≥0, lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗≤λ}\inf\{\lambda\rho+\frac1N\sum_iL(\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle-\hat y_i):\lambda\ge0,\ \mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*\le\lambda\}inf{λρ+N1​∑i​L(⟨w,x^i​⟩−y^​i​):λ≥0, lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​≤λ}.

Significance

The result. The theorem turns an infinite-dimensional min–max problem over distributions into a finite convex program over www: an empirical average plus a norm penalty. The penalty is not ∥w∥∗\|w\|_*∥w∥∗​ but ∥(w,−1)∥∗\|(w,-1)\|_*∥(w,−1)∥∗​, because the transport cost moves outputs as well as inputs. It scales with the radius ρ\rhoρ and with the Lipschitz modulus of the univariate loss. With the Huber, ϵ\epsilonϵ-insensitive and pinball losses it gives Corollaries 3.2–3.4 of the paper. It also gives a statistical reading of the regularization weight as a Wasserstein radius, which the paper's §4 turns into generalization bounds.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of its items is formalized yet except Lemma A.1. Lemma A.1 is available in a general form (any p≥1p\ge1p≥1, any closed support set, ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0) as a proved platform theorem from the mission Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization. The per-www identity also follows from the proved WassersteinDRO.Duality.convex_loss_p1_v2 (Theorem 10 of the tutorial, also present as WassersteinDRO.Regularization.convex_loss_p1_v2; the public mission Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization IV has it as goal) once one shows that lip(L∘⟨(w,−1),⋅⟩)=lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗\mathrm{lip}(L\circ\langle(w,-1),\cdot\rangle)=\mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*lip(L∘⟨(w,−1),⋅⟩)=lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​. No platform item states that factorization. What this mission adds is the paper's explicit form of the penalty, Lemma A.3 (the inner supremum for an arbitrary convex Lipschitz loss and an arbitrary norm), and the conjugate description of the Lipschitz modulus. The last two are reusable in classification (mission I of this series states them again in its own namespace) and in every Wasserstein-regularization result with linear hypotheses.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to write the worst case as a supremum over perturbations of the samples and bound each perturbed loss by its Lipschitz constant. That gives only the inequality "≤\le≤", and only for one Lipschitz constant. The identity needs two further steps that this bound does not supply. First, the bound must be attained: the supremum over distributions has to be shown to reach ρ lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗\rho\,\mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*ρlip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​, a matching lower bound that a Lipschitz estimate cannot give. Second, lip(L)\mathrm{lip}(L)lip(L) must be the modulus, not any constant: an upper Lipschitz constant K>lip(L)K>\mathrm{lip}(L)K>lip(L) makes the identity false. In Lemma A.3 the case lip(L)∥β∥∗=γ\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*=\gammalip(L)∥β∥∗​=γ sits exactly on the boundary between a finite and an infinite supremum. A further point is that the duality of Lemma A.1 needs ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, while the theorem includes ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0.

Formalization scope

  • Space. Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1 with an arbitrary norm is an abstract finite-dimensional real normed space E with its Borel σ-algebra. A continuous linear isomorphism e : E ≃L[ℝ] (Fin n → ℝ) × ℝ reads off inputs and outputs. The theorem therefore covers every norm on Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1; fixing a concrete norm would prove it for that norm only. The functional (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1) is pairing e w, and ∥(w,−1)∥∗\|(w,-1)\|_*∥(w,−1)∥∗​ is its operator norm.
  • Published objects. The ball, the worst case, the empirical distribution and the Lipschitz modulus are the published definitions WassersteinDRO_Duality_ambiguitySet, _worstCaseRisk_v2, _empiricalDistribution and _lipschitzModulus. The worst case is taken in the extended reals, and expectations follow the convention of nominalRisk_v2 (no junk value for non-integrable losses). lip(L)\mathrm{lip}(L)lip(L) takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Standing assumptions. LLL is nonnegative, convex on R\mathbb RR and Lipschitz continuous; N≥1N\ge1N≥1; ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0; Ξ=Rn+1\Xi=\mathbb R^{n+1}Ξ=Rn+1. The paper's L≥0L\ge0L≥0 (§2.1) is imposed as the standing loss-function assumption.
  • Reading of "equivalent". The paper does not define the word. The goal states the per-www identity that the proof establishes plus equality of optimal values. Attainment of the infimum is not claimed.
  • Corrections. The printed display on p. 30 omits a factor 1N\frac1NN1​ and carries a stray ∣θ∣|\theta|∣θ∣ in the constraint; milestone 4 states the corrected identity. The printed Lemma A.1 omits ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, which its proof uses; the linked platform theorem has it.
  • Ruled out. The goal is not a restatement of Theorem 10 with Lip(ℓw)\mathrm{Lip}(\ell_w)Lip(ℓw​) of the composite loss: its right-hand side is the explicit average of (6) with lip\mathrm{lip}lip of the univariate LLL and the dual norm of (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1).
  • Welcome contributions. The factorization lip(L∘β)=lip(L)∥β∥∗\mathrm{lip}(L\circ\beta)=\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*lip(L∘β)=lip(L)∥β∥∗​ for a linear functional β\betaβ on a finite-dimensional normed space, conjugate calculus for univariate convex functions, and the evaluation of the worst case at ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0.

Selected references

  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Regularization via Mass Transportation, arXiv:1710.10016v3, 2019; J. Mach. Learn. Res. 20(103), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10016
  • D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, V. A. Nguyen, S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning, INFORMS TutORials, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08729
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Math. Program. 171, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05116
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, NeurIPS, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Convex Optimization Theory, Athena Scientific, 2009 (cited as [9] in the paper for Propositions 5.3.1 and 5.5.4).
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Pegasos: Primal Estimated Sub-Gradient Solver for SVM: Mini-Batch Pegasos Has Average Instantaneous Objective Within c(1+ln T)/(2λT) of the SVM Optimum'sResearch Paper

Motivation

The support vector machine (SVM) is a linear classifier trained by minimising a regularised hinge loss. For training sets with millions of examples, solving the SVM problem to high accuracy by interior-point or dual decomposition methods is too slow, and what is needed is an algorithm whose cost per iteration does not grow with the number of examples. Pegasos (Primal Estimated sub-GrAdient SOlver for SVM), introduced by Shalev-Shwartz, Singer and Srebro in 2007 and analysed in its final form by Shalev-Shwartz, Singer, Srebro and Cotter in Mathematical Programming (2011, doi:10.1007/s10107-010-0420-4), is a stochastic sub-gradient method on the primal SVM objective with step size 1/(λt)1/(\lambda t)1/(λt). Its analysis showed that the number of iterations needed for accuracy ϵ\epsilonϵ is O~(1/(λϵ))\tilde O(1/(\lambda\epsilon))O~(1/(λϵ)), independent of the training-set size, and the method became a standard baseline for large-scale linear SVM training.

The analysis rests on a logarithmic-regret bound for online gradient descent on strongly convex functions, due to Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (Machine Learning 69, 2007), which the paper re-proves for non-smooth functions as its Lemma 1 and then applies to the Pegasos iterates in its Theorem 1.

Setting

A training set consists of mmm examples (xi,yi)(x_i, y_i)(xi​,yi​), i∈[m]i\in[m]i∈[m], with xi∈Rnx_i\in\mathbb R^nxi​∈Rn and labels yi∈{+1,−1}y_i\in\{+1,-1\}yi​∈{+1,−1}. The hinge loss of a weight vector www on (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is ℓ(w;(x,y))=max⁡{0, 1−y⟨w,x⟩}\ell(w;(x,y)) = \max\{0,\,1 - y\langle w, x\rangle\}ℓ(w;(x,y))=max{0,1−y⟨w,x⟩}. For a regularisation parameter λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the SVM objective (Eq. (1)) is

f(w)=λ2∥w∥2+1m∑i=1mℓ(w;(xi,yi)),f(w) = \frac\lambda2\|w\|^2 + \frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m \ell(w;(x_i,y_i)),f(w)=2λ​∥w∥2+m1​i=1∑m​ℓ(w;(xi​,yi​)),

and w⋆w^\starw⋆ denotes a minimiser of fff (Eq. (9)). For a mini-batch AAA of k≥1k\ge1k≥1 example indices, the instantaneous objective (Eq. (7)) is

f(w;A)=λ2∥w∥2+1k∑i∈Aℓ(w;(xi,yi)).f(w;A) = \frac\lambda2\|w\|^2 + \frac1k\sum_{i\in A}\ell(w;(x_i,y_i)).f(w;A)=2λ​∥w∥2+k1​i∈A∑​ℓ(w;(xi​,yi​)).

Mini-batch Pegasos (Fig. 2 of the paper) starts at w1=0w_1 = 0w1​=0. At each round t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,… it receives a mini-batch AtA_tAt​, forms the sub-gradient

∇t=λwt−1k∑i∈At1[yi⟨wt,xi⟩<1] yixi(8)\nabla_t = \lambda w_t - \frac1k\sum_{i\in A_t}\mathbb 1\bigl[y_i\langle w_t, x_i\rangle < 1\bigr]\,y_i x_i \qquad (8)∇t​=λwt​−k1​i∈At​∑​1[yi​⟨wt​,xi​⟩<1]yi​xi​(8)

of f(⋅;At)f(\cdot;A_t)f(⋅;At​) at wtw_twt​, and sets wt+1=wt−ηt∇tw_{t+1} = w_t - \eta_t\nabla_twt+1​=wt​−ηt​∇t​ with ηt=1/(λt)\eta_t = 1/(\lambda t)ηt​=1/(λt). Optionally it then applies the projection step (6), wt+1←min⁡{1,(1/λ)/∥wt+1∥} wt+1w_{t+1}\leftarrow\min\{1,(1/\sqrt\lambda)/\|w_{t+1}\|\}\,w_{t+1}wt+1​←min{1,(1/λ​)/∥wt+1​∥}wt+1​, which maps wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ to the closest point of the Euclidean ball of radius 1/λ1/\sqrt\lambda1/λ​. A function ggg is λ\lambdaλ-strongly convex if g(w)−λ2∥w∥2g(w) - \frac\lambda2\|w\|^2g(w)−2λ​∥w∥2 is convex, and vvv is a sub-gradient of a convex ggg at w0w_0w0​ if g(w)−g(w0)≥⟨v,w−w0⟩g(w) - g(w_0)\ge\langle v, w - w_0\rangleg(w)−g(w0​)≥⟨v,w−w0​⟩ for every www.

In the Lean development these objects are svmObj, instObj, subgrad, projBall and run in the namespace Pegasos.Analysis; the hinge loss is UnderstandingML.hingeLoss, sub-gradients are UnderstandingML.IsSubgradient, and "zzz is the projection of vvv onto BBB" is LogRegretOCO.OGD.IsProj B v z.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Assume ∥xi∥≤R\|x_i\|\le R∥xi​∥≤R for every iii, and set c=(λ+R)2c = (\sqrt\lambda + R)^2c=(λ​+R)2 when the projection step is performed and c=4R2c = 4R^2c=4R2 when it is not. Then for every sequence of mini-batches and every T≥3T\ge3T≥3,

1T∑t=1Tf(wt;At)  ≤  1T∑t=1Tf(w⋆;At)+c (1+ln⁡T)2λT.\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f(w_t;A_t) \;\le\; \frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f(w^\star;A_t) + \frac{c\,(1+\ln T)}{2\lambda T}.T1​t=1∑T​f(wt​;At​)≤T1​t=1∑T​f(w⋆;At​)+2λTc(1+lnT)​.

The constants are the paper's and are stated exactly; a version with a single constant for both variants, or with an unspecified constant, is a weaker theorem.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (10): for λ\lambdaλ-strongly convex ggg with sub-gradient vvv at www, ⟨w−u,v⟩≥g(w)−g(u)+λ2∥w−u∥2\langle w - u, v\rangle\ge g(w) - g(u) + \frac\lambda2\|w-u\|^2⟨w−u,v⟩≥g(w)−g(u)+2λ​∥w−u∥2.
  2. Eq. (11): one projected step satisfies ⟨wt−u,∇t⟩≤∥wt−u∥2−∥wt+1−u∥22ηt+ηt2G2\langle w_t - u,\nabla_t\rangle\le\frac{\|w_t-u\|^2 - \|w_{t+1}-u\|^2}{2\eta_t} + \frac{\eta_t}2G^2⟨wt​−u,∇t​⟩≤2ηt​∥wt​−u∥2−∥wt+1​−u∥2​+2ηt​​G2 (an already-proved platform theorem, stated with a factor 2).
  3. Lemma 1: projected sub-gradient steps ηt=1/(λt)\eta_t = 1/(\lambda t)ηt​=1/(λt) on λ\lambdaλ-strongly convex ftf_tft​ with ∥∇t∥≤G\|\nabla_t\|\le G∥∇t​∥≤G satisfy 1T∑ft(wt)≤1T∑ft(u)+G2(1+ln⁡T)2λT\frac1T\sum f_t(w_t)\le\frac1T\sum f_t(u) + \frac{G^2(1+\ln T)}{2\lambda T}T1​∑ft​(wt​)≤T1​∑ft​(u)+2λTG2(1+lnT)​ for all u∈Bu\in Bu∈B.
  4. The vector (8) is a sub-gradient of f(⋅;A)f(\cdot;A)f(⋅;A); f(⋅;A)f(\cdot;A)f(⋅;A) is λ\lambdaλ-strongly convex; the projection step (6) is the projection onto the ball of radius 1/λ1/\sqrt\lambda1/λ​.
  5. The gradient bounds: ∥∇t∥≤λ+R\|\nabla_t\|\le\sqrt\lambda + R∥∇t​∥≤λ​+R with projection; Eq. (13), wt+1=1λt∑i≤tviw_{t+1} = \frac1{\lambda t}\sum_{i\le t}v_iwt+1​=λt1​∑i≤t​vi​, and ∥∇t∥≤2R\|\nabla_t\|\le 2R∥∇t​∥≤2R without.
  6. ∥w⋆∥≤1/λ\|w^\star\|\le 1/\sqrt\lambda∥w⋆∥≤1/λ​.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the deterministic core of every guarantee in the paper. Taking expectations over uniformly random mini-batches turns its left side into the expected objective of the iterates and its right side into f(w⋆)f(w^\star)f(w⋆) plus the rate, which yields the O~(1/(λϵ))\tilde O(1/(\lambda\epsilon))O~(1/(λϵ)) iteration bound and, via Markov-type arguments, the high-probability bounds of the later sections. Because the bound holds for every sequence of mini-batches, it is also an online-learning regret bound for the sequence of instantaneous objectives.

The result is proved in the paper and is classical. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a verified logarithmic-regret lemma for non-smooth strongly convex sub-gradient descent with an arbitrary closed convex feasible set (the platform currently has the twice-differentiable version with a bounded feasible set), a verified sub-gradient calculus for the regularised hinge loss, and an exact treatment of the Pegasos iteration including both the projected and unprojected variants.

Difficulty

The obvious argument applies Lemma 1 with BBB the ball of radius 1/λ1/\sqrt\lambda1/λ​ in both variants and GGG the sup of ∥∇t∥\|\nabla_t\|∥∇t​∥ over that ball. This fails twice. Without the projection step the iterates are not confined to that ball, so a separate argument (the closed form (13)) is needed to bound them, and it gives the different constant 4R24R^24R2. With projection, Lemma 1 requires the comparator w⋆w^\starw⋆ to lie in the ball, and ∥w⋆∥≤1/λ\|w^\star\|\le1/\sqrt\lambda∥w⋆∥≤1/λ​ is not implied by the elementary comparison f(w⋆)≤f(0)≤1f(w^\star)\le f(0)\le1f(w⋆)≤f(0)≤1, which only gives ∥w⋆∥≤2/λ\|w^\star\|\le\sqrt{2/\lambda}∥w⋆∥≤2/λ​; the paper obtains the sharp radius through duality. In Lemma 1 itself, the telescoping only closes because the step size 1/(λt)1/(\lambda t)1/(λt) is matched exactly to the strong-convexity modulus; any off-by-one in the step indexing breaks the cancellation.

Formalization scope

Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), examples are indexed by Fin m, labels are real numbers with the hypothesis yi∈{+1,−1}y_i\in\{+1,-1\}yi​∈{+1,−1}, and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, k≥1k\ge1k≥1 are hypotheses. A mini-batch is a kkk-tuple Fin k → Fin m: an injective tuple is a subset of size kkk as in Fig. 2, a non-injective one is the multi-set with repetitions the paper also allows. The theorem is stated for every sequence of mini-batches A : ℕ → Fin k → Fin m; no probability space appears, because the proof never uses that the batches are random. Iterations are 1-based: run … 1 = 0, the step producing wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ uses ηt=1/(λt)\eta_t = 1/(\lambda t)ηt​=1/(λt) and the batch AtA_tAt​ only, and index 0 is unused. The variant is selected by a Boolean flag, and ccc depends on it. w⋆w^\starw⋆ is any www with f(w⋆)≤f(w)f(w^\star)\le f(w)f(w⋆)≤f(w) for all www, minimising the full objective (1), not the instantaneous ones. Strong convexity is the paper's own definition, convexity of g−λ2∥⋅∥2g - \frac\lambda2\|\cdot\|^2g−2λ​∥⋅∥2. At w=0w = 0w=0 the projection formula is evaluated with Lean's a/0=0a/0 = 0a/0=0, which gives the intended value 000. The paper's display (12) has two printed slips (the sign of the vtv_tvt​ term and xtx_txt​ for xix_ixi​); the Lean states the correct update, and Eq. (13) is correct as printed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is stated for the concrete iteration run, not for an abstract sequence assumed to be sub-gradient steps or projections, and those facts are separate milestones.

A complete development needs the sub-differential sum rule for a convex function plus a quadratic, convexity of the hinge loss, the variational characterisation of the projection onto a ball, the harmonic-sum bound ∑t≤T1/t≤1+ln⁡T\sum_{t\le T}1/t\le1+\ln T∑t≤T​1/t≤1+lnT, and a proof of ∥w⋆∥≤1/λ\|w^\star\|\le1/\sqrt\lambda∥w⋆∥≤1/λ​ (through duality or a direct optimality argument). Lemma 1 and the sub-gradient lemmas are reusable for any strongly convex stochastic sub-gradient method. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of the bound on ∥w⋆∥\|w^\star\|∥w⋆∥ that avoid the dual problem, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, N. Srebro, A. Cotter, Pegasos: primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM, Mathematical Programming Ser. B 127 (2011) 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0420-4
  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization, Machine Learning 69 (2007) 169–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, N. Srebro, Pegasos: primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM, ICML 2007. https://doi.org/10.1145/1273496.1273598
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance 2: Under Consumer Returns, the Differentiated Buy-Back with b − l = s Coordinates the Supply Chain and Gives the Retailer a Share φResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers in many categories accept returns of products that are not defective: a consumer buys, learns whether the product suits them, and may send it back for a refund. Returns of this kind are a large cost item in retailing, and the refund a retailer offers is an operational decision on a par with its price and its stocking quantity. Xuanming Su, Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance (SSRN 1020451, version of August 2008; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009, doi:10.1287/msom.1080.0240), studies this decision first for a single seller and then in a supply chain.

This mission formalizes the supply chain part, Section 5 of the paper. A classical result of supply chain contracting is that a manufacturer can align a retailer's ordering decision with the interest of the whole chain by a buy-back contract, which pays the retailer a credit for unsold units (Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, 2003). Su shows that once the retailer also sets a consumer returns policy, the standard buy-back no longer coordinates, and identifies three contracts that do. The companion mission (mission 1 of this series) formalizes the single-seller results of Sections 3–4, in particular Proposition 2, which gives the supply chain optimum used here.

Setting

A consumer who buys at price ppp learns a valuation VVV, drawn independently from a law ν\nuν with finite mean μ=EV\mu = EVμ=EV, and then either keeps the product or returns it for the refund rrr. Keeping is optimal when V≥rV \ge rV≥r. Write

Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r),\bar G(r) = \mathbb P(V \ge r), \qquad G(r) = \mathbb P(V < r),Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r),

for the probabilities of keeping and returning. A consumer's expected utility from buying is Emax⁡(V,r)E\max(V,r)Emax(V,r), which is therefore the reservation price: all consumers buy if p≤Emax⁡(V,r)p \le E\max(V,r)p≤Emax(V,r) and none buys otherwise (the demand rule (6)). Market demand X≥0X \ge 0X≥0 has distribution function FFF and Fˉ=1−F\bar F = 1 - FFˉ=1−F; a stock q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 sells Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X,q)Emin(X,q) in expectation when consumers buy, and nothing when they do not. Write S(p,q,r)S(p,q,r)S(p,q,r) for these expected sales. The production cost is ccc, leftover and returned units are salvaged at sss, and 0≤s<c<μ0 \le s < c < \mu0≤s<c<μ.

The total supply chain profit is

ΠT(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)] S(p,q,r)−(c−s)q.(15)\Pi_T(p,q,r) = [(p-s)\bar G(r) + (p-r)G(r)]\,S(p,q,r) - (c-s)q. \tag{15}ΠT​(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)]S(p,q,r)−(c−s)q.(15)

A manufacturer sells to a retailer, who sets ppp, qqq and (except in Proposition 4) rrr. The contracts are:

  • standard buy-back (w,b)(w,b)(w,b): wholesale price www, credit bbb per leftover unit; the retailer earns (14);
  • differentiated buy-back (w,b,l)(w,b,l)(w,b,l): credit bbb per unsold unit and b−lb-lb−l per returned unit; the retailer earns
ΠR(p,q,r)=[(p−b)Gˉ(r)+(p−r−l)G(r)] S(p,q,r)−(w−b)q;(31)\Pi_R(p,q,r) = [(p-b)\bar G(r) + (p-r-l)G(r)]\,S(p,q,r) - (w-b)q; \tag{31}ΠR​(p,q,r)=[(p−b)Gˉ(r)+(p−r−l)G(r)]S(p,q,r)−(w−b)q;(31)
  • direct-to-manufacturer returns with a buy-back (w,b)(w,b)(w,b): consumers return to the manufacturer, who sets rrr; the profits are (19) and (21);
  • sales rebate (w,u)(w,u)(w,u): a rebate uuu per unit sold, returned or not; the retailer earns (25).

The supply chain optimum, from Proposition 2 of the paper, is

pSC=Emax⁡(V,s),Fˉ(qSC)=c−sEmax⁡(V,s)−s,rSC=s.p^{SC} = E\max(V,s), \qquad \bar F(q^{SC}) = \frac{c-s}{E\max(V,s)-s}, \qquad r^{SC} = s.pSC=Emax(V,s),Fˉ(qSC)=Emax(V,s)−sc−s​,rSC=s.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 16)

For ϕ∈[0,1]\phi \in [0,1]ϕ∈[0,1] and ϕˉ=1−ϕ\bar\phi = 1-\phiϕˉ​=1−ϕ, the differentiated buy-back

w=ϕc+ϕˉ Emax⁡(V,s),b=ϕs+ϕˉ Emax⁡(V,s),b−l=sw = \phi c + \bar\phi\,E\max(V,s), \qquad b = \phi s + \bar\phi\,E\max(V,s), \qquad b - l = sw=ϕc+ϕˉ​Emax(V,s),b=ϕs+ϕˉ​Emax(V,s),b−l=s

makes the supply chain optimum a retailer optimum and gives the retailer the share ϕ\phiϕ:

ΠR(p,q,r)≤ΠR(pSC,qSC,rSC)  ∀p,r, q≥0,ΠR(pSC,qSC,rSC)=ϕ ΠT(pSC,qSC,rSC),\Pi_R(p,q,r) \le \Pi_R(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}) \ \ \forall p, r,\ q \ge 0, \qquad \Pi_R(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}) = \phi\,\Pi_T(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}),ΠR​(p,q,r)≤ΠR​(pSC,qSC,rSC)  ∀p,r, q≥0,ΠR​(pSC,qSC,rSC)=ϕΠT​(pSC,qSC,rSC),

and the contract is implementable: w≥bw \ge bw≥b, l≥0l \ge 0l≥0, b−l≥sb - l \ge sb−l≥s.

Milestones

  1. Under a standard buy-back the retailer's optimal refund is r∗=br^* = br∗=b (Sec. 5.1, p. 15).
  2. Under (31) the retailer's optimum is p∗=Emax⁡(V,b−l)p^* = E\max(V,b-l)p∗=Emax(V,b−l), Fˉ(q∗)=(w−b)/(Emax⁡(V,b−l)−b)\bar F(q^*) = (w-b)/(E\max(V,b-l)-b)Fˉ(q∗)=(w−b)/(Emax(V,b−l)−b), r∗=b−lr^* = b-lr∗=b−l (proof of Proposition 3, p. 27).
  3. Under (16)–(18), w−b=ϕ(c−s)w - b = \phi(c-s)w−b=ϕ(c−s) and Emax⁡(V,b−l)−b=ϕ[Emax⁡(V,s)−s]E\max(V,b-l) - b = \phi[E\max(V,s)-s]Emax(V,b−l)−b=ϕ[Emax(V,s)−s] ((32)–(33)).
  4. At (Emax⁡(V,s),q,s)(E\max(V,s), q, s)(Emax(V,s),q,s) the retailer earns ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​ ((34)–(39)).
  5. Retailer plus manufacturer profit under direct returns is ΠT\Pi_TΠT​ (Sec. 5.3, p. 17).
  6. Proposition 4: with direct-to-manufacturer returns and the buy-back (22)–(23), the chain optimum is a Nash equilibrium between retailer and manufacturer, with retailer share ϕ\phiϕ.
  7. Proposition 5: the sales rebate u=Emax⁡(V,s)−sc−s(w−c)u = \frac{E\max(V,s)-s}{c-s}(w-c)u=c−sEmax(V,s)−s​(w−c) makes the chain optimum a retailer optimum.
  8. With a rebate paid on kept units only, the retailer's optimal refund is r∗=s−u<sr^* = s - u < sr∗=s−u<s (Sec. 5.4, p. 19).

Significance

The results separate what a contract must observe in order to coordinate a chain with consumer returns: either the manufacturer distinguishes returned from unsold units (Propositions 3 and 4), or it observes sales (Proposition 5). The negative results (milestones 1 and 8) show why the standard buy-back and a kept-only rebate fail: each distorts the retailer's refund away from the salvage value. These statements are proved in the paper by short arguments; none of them has, to the knowledge of this mission, a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them yields a reusable model of a newsvendor with an endogenous price and refund under valuation uncertainty, and a checked account of the coordination conditions, including the boundary cases (ϕ=0\phi = 0ϕ=0, atoms in the valuation law) that the paper does not discuss.

Difficulty

Each result combines two optimizations, and neither is routine at the generality of the formal statements. The first is over price and refund jointly: the demand rule makes every profit discontinuous in ppp and rrr, and the refund problem must be solved for an arbitrary valuation law, where atoms make the tie rule at V=rV = rV=r matter. The second is a newsvendor problem in qqq for an arbitrary demand law: the paper writes the optimal stock as Fˉ−1\bar F^{-1}Fˉ−1 of a fractile, which presumes a continuous, strictly increasing FFF, whereas here FFF may jump or be flat and the optimal stock is any solution of the fractile equation. The obvious reduction, "the retailer's profit is ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​, so its maximizer is the chain's", is not available: that identity holds only at the chain's price and refund, and away from them the retailer's profit is not proportional to ΠT\Pi_TΠT​. In Proposition 4 the manufacturer's deviation to a refund below sss acts on the consumers' purchase decision, and the paper's remark that no one then buys is false when V≥sV \ge sV≥s almost surely, so that case needs its own argument.

Formalization scope

Prices, refunds, costs, quantities and profits are real numbers. The valuation law ν\nuν is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with integrable identity (a strict generalization of the paper's density ggg); Gˉ(r)=ν([r,∞))\bar G(r) = \nu([r,\infty))Gˉ(r)=ν([r,∞)) and G(r)=ν((−∞,r))G(r) = \nu((-\infty,r))G(r)=ν((−∞,r)), matching the rule "keep iff V≥rV \ge rV≥r". The demand law DDD is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with D((−∞,0))=0D((-\infty,0)) = 0D((−∞,0))=0, and Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X,q)Emin(X,q) is SupplyChainTheory.expSales from the published module SupplyChainTheory_contracts. Every profit includes the demand rule (6): without it, (15) and (31) are unbounded in ppp. Optimization is over all real ppp and rrr and all q≥0q \ge 0q≥0, nonnegative stocks and demand being the paper's setting; with negative stocks the profits are unbounded. Optimality of the paper's closed-form triple is claimed, never uniqueness, and "induces the retailer to maximize supply chain profit" is stated as "the chain-optimal triple is a retailer optimum"; that the triple maximizes ΠT\Pi_TΠT​ is Proposition 2, formalized in mission 1, and not restated. The optimal stock is any solution of the fractile equation, and no continuity of DDD is assumed. The Nash equilibrium of Proposition 4 is written as the two best-response inequalities. Proposition 5 adds the hypothesis w≥sw \ge sw≥s, implied by the paper's range w≥cw \ge cw≥c (p. 19) and necessary: for w<sw < sw<s the retailer's profit is unbounded. The kept-only rebate of Sec. 5.4 has no printed formula; its profit is (24) with the rebate removed from the returned-units term. Printed page numbers equal PDF page numbers throughout the source. A formalization in which the retailer's profit is defined as ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​, or in which the optimization is restricted to r=sr = sr=s, would make the goal trivial and is excluded: (31) is stated with free www, bbb, lll, and the contract enters only through hypotheses.

The model module (SuReturns.Coordination.Model) restates the single-seller objects of mission 1 in this sub-namespace. Contributions welcome: proofs of the two optimization steps as reusable lemmas (the refund step for a general valuation law and the newsvendor step for an arbitrary demand law), which serve every milestone here.

Selected references

  • X. Su, Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance, SSRN working paper 1020451, version of August 2008. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1020451 ; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1080.0240
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • B. A. Pasternack, Optimal Pricing and Return Policies for Perishable Commodities (the buy-back contract), Marketing Science 4(2), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.4.2.166
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Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions: β-CVaR Is min_α F_β(x, α), Attained on the Interval from β-VaR to Upper β-VaRResearch Paper

Motivation

Financial institutions, insurers and engineers who manage the risk of a decision describe it by a statistic of the loss distribution that the decision induces. The value-at-risk (VaR) at confidence level β\betaβ, the β\betaβ-quantile of the loss, became an industry and regulatory standard in the 1990s, but it is not subadditive and behaves erratically as a function of the decision when the loss distribution has atoms, as it always does in scenario-based models. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), roughly the average of the losses beyond VaR, was proposed as a replacement that is coherent in the sense of Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath and that can be optimized.

In an earlier paper (Rockafellar and Uryasev, 2000) the same authors showed, for loss distributions with continuous distribution functions, that CVaR is the minimum value of an explicit convex function of one real variable, and that VaR is a minimizer. That formula turned CVaR minimization over a portfolio into a linear program and is the reason CVaR is used in practice. The paper formalized here (Rockafellar and Uryasev, Research Report #2001-5, 2001, published in J. Banking & Finance 2002) defines CVaR for general loss distributions, discrete ones included, and proves that the minimization formula survives.

Timeline.

  • 1997–1999: Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath introduce coherent risk measures; VaR fails subadditivity.
  • 2000: Rockafellar and Uryasev prove the minimization formula for continuous loss distributions.
  • 2001–2002: the present paper, Theorem 10: the formula holds for every integrable loss once CVaR is defined as the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution. Acerbi and Tasche (2002) give an equivalent "expected shortfall" formulation.

Setting

A decision xxx lies in a set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn; an uncertain outcome y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm has a Borel probability law PPP that does not depend on xxx. The loss is z=f(x,y)z=f(x,y)z=f(x,y), where fff is continuous in xxx on XXX, measurable in yyy, and E{∣f(x,y)∣}<∞E\{|f(x,y)|\}<\inftyE{∣f(x,y)∣}<∞ for each x∈Xx\in Xx∈X. A confidence level β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) is fixed.

  • The distribution function of the loss is Ψ(x,α)=P{y∣f(x,y)≤α}\Psi(x,\alpha)=P\{y\mid f(x,y)\le\alpha\}Ψ(x,α)=P{y∣f(x,y)≤α}, with left limit Ψ(x,α−)=P{y∣f(x,y)<α}\Psi(x,\alpha^-)=P\{y\mid f(x,y)<\alpha\}Ψ(x,α−)=P{y∣f(x,y)<α}.
  • The β\betaβ-VaR is αβ(x)=min⁡{α∣Ψ(x,α)≥β}\alpha_\beta(x)=\min\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha)\ge\beta\}αβ​(x)=min{α∣Ψ(x,α)≥β} and the upper β\betaβ-VaR is αβ+(x)=inf⁡{α∣Ψ(x,α)>β}\alpha^+_\beta(x)=\inf\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha)>\beta\}αβ+​(x)=inf{α∣Ψ(x,α)>β}.
  • The β\betaβ-tail distribution is the probability measure on R\mathbb RR with distribution function
Ψβ(x,α)={0,α<αβ(x),Ψ(x,α)−β1−β,α≥αβ(x).\Psi_\beta(x,\alpha)=\begin{cases}0,&\alpha<\alpha_\beta(x),\\ \dfrac{\Psi(x,\alpha)-\beta}{1-\beta},&\alpha\ge\alpha_\beta(x).\end{cases}Ψβ​(x,α)=⎩⎨⎧​0,1−βΨ(x,α)−β​,​α<αβ​(x),α≥αβ​(x).​
  • The β\betaβ-CVaR ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution.
  • The upper β\betaβ-CVaR is ϕβ+(x)=E{f(x,y)∣f(x,y)>αβ(x)}\phi^+_\beta(x)=E\{f(x,y)\mid f(x,y)>\alpha_\beta(x)\}ϕβ+​(x)=E{f(x,y)∣f(x,y)>αβ​(x)}, defined when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1, and λβ(x)=[Ψ(x,αβ(x))−β]/[1−β]\lambda_\beta(x)=[\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))-\beta]/[1-\beta]λβ​(x)=[Ψ(x,αβ​(x))−β]/[1−β].
  • Finally
Fβ(x,α)=α+11−β E{[f(x,y)−α]+},[t]+=max⁡{0,t}.F_\beta(x,\alpha)=\alpha+\frac{1}{1-\beta}\,E\big\{[f(x,y)-\alpha]^+\big\},\qquad[t]^+=\max\{0,t\}.Fβ​(x,α)=α+1−β1​E{[f(x,y)−α]+},[t]+=max{0,t}.

When Ψ(x,⋅)\Psi(x,\cdot)Ψ(x,⋅) jumps across β\betaβ at αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x), the tail distribution keeps only the part λβ(x)\lambda_\beta(x)λβ​(x) of that atom needed to give the tail total mass one: the atom is split.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (fundamental minimization formula)

For each x∈Xx\in Xx∈X: Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅) is finite and convex (hence continuous), and

ϕβ(x)=min⁡α∈RFβ(x,α),argmin⁡αFβ(x,α)=[αβ(x),αβ+(x)],\phi_\beta(x)=\min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R}F_\beta(x,\alpha),\qquad \operatorname{argmin}_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)=[\alpha_\beta(x),\alpha^+_\beta(x)],ϕβ​(x)=α∈Rmin​Fβ​(x,α),argminα​Fβ​(x,α)=[αβ​(x),αβ+​(x)],

the minimum being attained and the argmin a nonempty closed bounded interval; in particular ϕβ(x)=Fβ(x,αβ(x))\phi_\beta(x)=F_\beta(x,\alpha_\beta(x))ϕβ​(x)=Fβ​(x,αβ​(x)).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. The note after Definition 3: Ψβ(x,⋅)\Psi_\beta(x,\cdot)Ψβ​(x,⋅) is a distribution function, so the β\betaβ-tail distribution exists; its mean is finite.
  2. Proposition 6: ϕβ(x)=λβ(x)αβ(x)+[1−λβ(x)]ϕβ+(x)\phi_\beta(x)=\lambda_\beta(x)\alpha_\beta(x)+[1-\lambda_\beta(x)]\phi^+_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)=λβ​(x)αβ​(x)+[1−λβ​(x)]ϕβ+​(x) when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1, and ϕβ(x)=αβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)=\alpha_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)=αβ​(x) otherwise.
  3. Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅) is finite and convex.
  4. The one-sided derivatives (31): ∂+Fβ/∂α=[Ψ(x,α)−β]/(1−β)\partial^+F_\beta/\partial\alpha=[\Psi(x,\alpha)-\beta]/(1-\beta)∂+Fβ​/∂α=[Ψ(x,α)−β]/(1−β) and ∂−Fβ/∂α=[Ψ(x,α−)−β]/(1−β)\partial^-F_\beta/\partial\alpha=[\Psi(x,\alpha^-)-\beta]/(1-\beta)∂−Fβ​/∂α=[Ψ(x,α−)−β]/(1−β).
  5. Bounded level sets, and argmin⁡αFβ(x,α)={α∣Ψ(x,α−)≤β≤Ψ(x,α)}\operatorname{argmin}_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)=\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha^-)\le\beta\le\Psi(x,\alpha)\}argminα​Fβ​(x,α)={α∣Ψ(x,α−)≤β≤Ψ(x,α)}, a nonempty closed bounded interval.
  6. The least element of that set is αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) and the greatest is αβ+(x)\alpha^+_\beta(x)αβ+​(x).

A companion item states Corollary 7: ϕβ(x)≥αβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)\ge\alpha_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)≥αβ​(x), strictly when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1.

Significance

Theorem 10 is what makes CVaR computable and optimizable. Since ϕβ(x)=min⁡αFβ(x,α)\phi_\beta(x)=\min_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)ϕβ​(x)=minα​Fβ​(x,α), minimizing CVaR over x∈Xx\in Xx∈X is the joint minimization of Fβ(x,α)F_\beta(x,\alpha)Fβ​(x,α) over (x,α)(x,\alpha)(x,α); with a finite scenario set and a loss linear in xxx, that is a linear program, and VaR comes out as a by-product. The convexity and sublinearity of CVaR in xxx (Corollary 11), its coherence (Corollary 12) and the equivalence of CVaR-constrained and CVaR-penalized problems (Theorem 14) are all derived from it. The formula is the basis of CVaR portfolio optimization software and of a large literature on risk-averse stochastic programming.

The result has been proved since 2001 and is not open. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof with CVaR defined independently: the CVaR items already on Prove2Me take min⁡αFβ\min_\alpha F_\betaminα​Fβ​ as the definition of CVaR, which makes (28) true by definition. This mission produces a formal proof that the tail-mean definition, with its atom splitting, agrees with the minimization formula for every integrable loss, together with reusable facts about one-sided derivatives of α↦E[f−α]+\alpha\mapsto E[f-\alpha]^+α↦E[f−α]+ and the argmin of the Rockafellar–Uryasev function.

Difficulty

The minimization side is elementary convex analysis in one variable once the one-sided derivatives are known; computing them requires passing a limit under the expectation, with the jumps of Ψ(x,⋅)\Psi(x,\cdot)Ψ(x,⋅) handled separately for right and left limits. The step that does not follow from that analysis is the identification of the minimum value with ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x). When the loss has an atom at αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) that straddles level β\betaβ, neither E{f∣f≥αβ(x)}E\{f\mid f\ge\alpha_\beta(x)\}E{f∣f≥αβ​(x)} nor E{f∣f>αβ(x)}E\{f\mid f>\alpha_\beta(x)\}E{f∣f>αβ​(x)} equals the minimum value; only the mean of the distribution with the split atom does. The obvious approach, proving the formula for continuous laws and passing to a limit, does not deliver the identity at the level of the defined objects; the identity has to be proved directly from the definition of the tail distribution, through Proposition 6.

Formalization scope

  • The outcome space is Rm\mathbb R^mRm (Fin m → ℝ) with its Borel σ-algebra and a probability measure P. The paper's support set Y⊆RmY\subseteq\mathbb R^mY⊆Rm is not modelled: a law on YYY is a law on Rm\mathbb R^mRm concentrated on YYY, and no statement uses YYY.
  • Probabilities are real numbers (P.real). Ψ(x,α−)\Psi(x,\alpha^-)Ψ(x,α−) is P{f(x,⋅)<α}P\{f(x,\cdot)<\alpha\}P{f(x,⋅)<α}, as the paper defines it in (2).
  • αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk P (f x) β (a real infimum, referenced, not redefined); αβ+(x)\alpha^+_\beta(x)αβ+​(x) is a real infimum. Both are meaningful because PPP is a probability measure and 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and those hypotheses are carried wherever they appear.
  • The β\betaβ-tail distribution is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR whose distribution function is Ψβ(x,⋅)\Psi_\beta(x,\cdot)Ψβ​(x,⋅), chosen when one exists (it is then unique); ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is its mean. Milestone 1 establishes existence and integrability.
  • "Minimum" is attainment: ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is the least element of the range of Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅). The argmin is the set of global minimizers. "Finite" is integrability of [f(x,⋅)−α]+[f(x,\cdot)-\alpha]^+[f(x,⋅)−α]+ for each α\alphaα.
  • One-sided derivatives are derivatives within [α,∞)[\alpha,\infty)[α,∞) and (−∞,α](-\infty,\alpha](−∞,α]. The display (31) as printed on p. 14 has αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) in place of α\alphaα; the formalization follows the derivation on p. 15.
  • The goal and Corollary 7 carry all standing assumptions of §2; milestones assume only what they use (integrability, measurability of the single loss f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅)), which makes them stronger.

Defining CVaR as min⁡αFβ(x,α)\min_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)minα​Fβ​(x,α), or as the quantile average, or by formula (21), would make the goal or a milestone true by definition; CVaR is defined here as the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution, and any such redefinition is ruled out.

A complete development needs: right-continuity and limits of distribution functions, dominated convergence for the difference quotients of α↦E[f−α]+\alpha\mapsto E[f-\alpha]^+α↦E[f−α]+, the uniqueness of a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with given distribution function, and one-variable convex analysis linking one-sided derivatives to minimizers. The derivative and argmin lemmas are reusable for any Rockafellar–Uryasev-type objective. Proofs of any milestone, and Lean lemmas that bridge valueAtRisk (stated with ENNReal) and P.real, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions, Research Report #2001-5, ISE Dept., University of Florida, April 2001; published in Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002) 1443–1471. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00271-6
  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk, Journal of Risk 2 (2000) 21–41. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber and D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9 (1999) 203–228. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
  • C. Acerbi and D. Tasche, On the coherence of expected shortfall, Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002) 1487–1503. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00283-2
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Additive Logistic Regression: A Statistical View of Boosting 2: Population Discrete AdaBoost Is a Newton-Like Step with Exact Line Search c = ½ log((1−err)/err)Research Paper

Motivation

AdaBoost (Freund and Schapire, 1997) combines many weak classifiers fm(x)∈{−1,1}f_m(x) \in \{-1, 1\}fm​(x)∈{−1,1} into a weighted vote sign⁡(∑mcmfm(x))\operatorname{sign}\big(\sum_m c_m f_m(x)\big)sign(∑m​cm​fm​(x)). At each round it fits a classifier to a reweighted training sample, sets cm=log⁡((1−errm)/errm)c_m = \log((1 - \mathrm{err}_m)/\mathrm{err}_m)cm​=log((1−errm​)/errm​) from the weighted error errm\mathrm{err}_merrm​, and multiplies the weights of the misclassified points by ecme^{c_m}ecm​. The algorithm was introduced as a procedure for boosting the accuracy of weak learners in the PAC sense, and its good test performance was at first not explained by any statistical model.

Friedman, Hastie and Tibshirani (Ann. Statist. 28 (2000) 337–407) recast boosting as stagewise fitting of an additive model by minimizing the exponential criterion J(F)=E(e−yF(x))J(F) = E(e^{-yF(x)})J(F)=E(e−yF(x)). Their Lemma 1 shows that JJJ is minimized at half the log-odds, so an additive FFF fitted this way estimates a logistic regression model. Result 1 of that paper, the subject of this mission, shows that Discrete AdaBoost is exactly such a fitting procedure: in its population version, each round is a Newton-like step on JJJ followed by an exact line search, and the resulting reweighting is AdaBoost's. This view underlies gradient boosting, LogitBoost and the loss-function analysis of boosting in later work.

Setting

Let XXX be a measurable space of features and let ν\nuν be a probability law of the pair (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) on X×{−1,1}X \times \{-1, 1\}X×{−1,1}. The conditional law of yyy given xxx is the disintegration ν(⋅∣x)\nu(\cdot \mid x)ν(⋅∣x), and E(⋅∣x)E(\cdot \mid x)E(⋅∣x) is the integral against it. A current estimate is a measurable F:X→RF : X \to \mathbb RF:X→R, and the exponential criterion is

J(F)=E(e−yF(x))∈[0,∞].J(F) = E\big(e^{-yF(x)}\big) \in [0, \infty].J(F)=E(e−yF(x))∈[0,∞].

With weight w(x,y)=e−yF(x)w(x, y) = e^{-yF(x)}w(x,y)=e−yF(x), the weighted conditional expectation and the weighted expectation are

Ew[g(x,y)∣x]=E[w(x,y)g(x,y)∣x]E[w(x,y)∣x],Ew[g(x,y)]=E[w(x,y)g(x,y)]E[w(x,y)].E_w[g(x, y) \mid x] = \frac{E[w(x, y) g(x, y) \mid x]}{E[w(x, y) \mid x]}, \qquad E_w[g(x, y)] = \frac{E[w(x, y) g(x, y)]}{E[w(x, y)]}.Ew​[g(x,y)∣x]=E[w(x,y)∣x]E[w(x,y)g(x,y)∣x]​,Ew​[g(x,y)]=E[w(x,y)]E[w(x,y)g(x,y)]​.

A classifier is a measurable f:X→{−1,1}f : X \to \{-1, 1\}f:X→{−1,1}; its weighted error is err=Ew[1[y≠f(x)]]\mathrm{err} = E_w[1_{[y \neq f(x)]}]err=Ew​[1[y=f(x)]​]. The paper's candidate update is F←F+cfF \leftarrow F + cfF←F+cf with

f(x)={1,Ew(y∣x)>0,−1,otherwise,(18)c=12log⁡1−errerr.(20)f(x) = \begin{cases} 1, & E_w(y \mid x) > 0, \\ -1, & \text{otherwise}, \end{cases} \qquad (18) \qquad\qquad c = \frac12 \log\frac{1 - \mathrm{err}}{\mathrm{err}}. \qquad (20)f(x)={1,−1,​Ew​(y∣x)>0,otherwise,​(18)c=21​logerr1−err​.(20)

Algorithm 1 (p. 338) uses cm=log⁡((1−err)/err)=2cc_m = \log((1 - \mathrm{err})/\mathrm{err}) = 2ccm​=log((1−err)/err)=2c and the update w←wexp⁡(cm1[y≠f(x)])w \leftarrow w \exp(c_m 1_{[y \neq f(x)]})w←wexp(cm​1[y=f(x)]​) followed by renormalization.

Formalization targets

Goal: Result 1 (p. 346)

For FFF measurable with J(F)<∞J(F) < \inftyJ(F)<∞:

  1. for every c>0c > 0c>0 and every xxx, the classifier (18) minimizes the quadratic approximation Ew(1−ycs+c2/2∣x)E_w(1 - ycs + c^2/2 \mid x)Ew​(1−ycs+c2/2∣x) over s∈{−1,1}s \in \{-1, 1\}s∈{−1,1};
  2. for every classifier fff with 0<err<10 < \mathrm{err} < 10<err<1, the coefficient ccc of (20) satisfies
J(F+cf)≤J(F+c′f)for all c′∈R;J(F + cf) \le J(F + c'f) \qquad \text{for all } c' \in \mathbb R;J(F+cf)≤J(F+c′f)for all c′∈R;
  1. for every classifier fff, every xxx and yyy,
e−yF(x)e−cf(x)y=e−c⋅e−yF(x)exp⁡(log⁡1−errerr 1[y≠f(x)]),e^{-yF(x)} e^{-cf(x)y} = e^{-c} \cdot e^{-yF(x)} \exp\Big(\log\frac{1 - \mathrm{err}}{\mathrm{err}}\, 1_{[y \neq f(x)]}\Big),e−yF(x)e−cf(x)y=e−c⋅e−yF(x)exp(logerr1−err​1[y=f(x)]​),

so the population reweighting coincides with Algorithm 1's after renormalization.

Milestones

  • the second-order expansion of Ew(e−cys∣x)E_w(e^{-cys} \mid x)Ew​(e−cys∣x) in ccc (proof of Result 1, p. 346);
  • (17)–(18): for c>0c > 0c>0, (16) is maximization of Ew[yf(x)]E_w[yf(x)]Ew​[yf(x)], solved by (18) (p. 347);
  • (19): −Ew[yf(x)]=Ew[(y−f(x))2]/2−1-E_w[yf(x)] = E_w[(y - f(x))^2]/2 - 1−Ew​[yf(x)]=Ew​[(y−f(x))2]/2−1 (p. 347);
  • (20): c=12log⁡((1−err)/err)c = \frac12\log((1-\mathrm{err})/\mathrm{err})c=21​log((1−err)/err) is the unique minimizer of Ewe−cyf(x)E_w e^{-cyf(x)}Ew​e−cyf(x) (p. 347);
  • −yf(x)=2×1[y≠f(x)]−1-yf(x) = 2 \times 1_{[y \neq f(x)]} - 1−yf(x)=2×1[y=f(x)]​−1 and the weight identity (p. 347);
  • Corollary 2 (p. 348), referenced from the platform in its sample form;
  • (21)–(22): the first-order condition of the line search (p. 348).

Significance

The result. Result 1 turns AdaBoost from a combinatorial reweighting scheme into an optimization method with a known objective. It identifies the population quantity the algorithm estimates (via Lemma 1, half the log-odds), explains the specific constant log⁡((1−err)/err)\log((1-\mathrm{err})/\mathrm{err})log((1−err)/err) as an exact line search, explains why the weights of misclassified points are inflated by (1−err)/err(1-\mathrm{err})/\mathrm{err}(1−err)/err, and shows that a weak learner worse than chance is used with reversed sign. It is the template for the other population results of the paper (Real AdaBoost, LogitBoost, Gentle AdaBoost) and for later functional-gradient views of boosting.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; it has not been machine-checked. The paper's argument is stated informally ("≈", "arg min", "Newton-like"); this mission fixes each claim as a precise statement about measures on X×{−1,1}X \times \{-1, 1\}X×{−1,1}. The sample version of Corollary 2 is already proved on the platform (UnderstandingML.adaboost_reweighted_error) and is reused; everything else is new.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary on its own; the work is in carrying the population statements through measure theory. The weighted expectations are ratios of integrals that are meaningful only under integrability of e−yF(x)e^{-yF(x)}e−yF(x), and the line-search claim compares J(F+c′f)J(F + c'f)J(F+c′f) for all real c′c'c′, all of which must be shown finite before they can be compared as real numbers. The pointwise claim (16)–(18) uses the conditional law of yyy given xxx, which exists only as a disintegration kernel; passing from it to the unconditional (17) requires the disintegration identity and measurability of (18) in xxx. The tempting shortcut of treating J(F+cf)J(F + cf)J(F+cf) as its quadratic approximation does not prove the line-search claim: (20) is the exact minimizer of JJJ, not of the approximation.

Formalization scope

Labels are Booleans, with y=1y = 1y=1 for true and y=−1y = -1y=−1 for false. JJJ is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and is compared there; EwE_wEw​ and Ew(⋅∣x)E_w(\cdot \mid x)Ew​(⋅∣x) are ratios of Bochner integrals, the conditional one against ν.condKernel x. Disclosed additions, each needed for the page's formulas to be defined: FFF and fff measurable, J(F)<∞J(F) < \inftyJ(F)<∞, and 0<err<10 < \mathrm{err} < 10<err<1 wherever log⁡((1−err)/err)\log((1-\mathrm{err})/\mathrm{err})log((1−err)/err) is used. No condition err<1/2\mathrm{err} < 1/2err<1/2 is imposed. Ties Ew(y∣x)=0E_w(y \mid x) = 0Ew​(y∣x)=0 go to −1-1−1, as printed. The "≈" of the expansion is read as "second-order Taylor polynomial in ccc", and derivatives are stated with HasDerivAt.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded: JJJ is not defined by a conditional formula or as a Bochner integral (which would return 000 on non-integrable weights and make every step optimal), the logarithm is never applied outside its domain, and the class of fff stays {−1,1}\{-1, 1\}{−1,1}-valued (over real-valued fff the Newton step is Gentle AdaBoost's, a different result).

Everything is in the namespace AddLogReg.Discrete, with one definitions file (Setting) holding JJJ, EwE_wEw​, the classifier (18), err\mathrm{err}err and the coefficient (20). Reusable pieces are lemmas on disintegrations of laws on X×BoolX \times \mathrm{Bool}X×Bool and on weighted expectations. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • J. Friedman, T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani, Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting, Ann. Statist. 28(2):337–407, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1016218223
  • Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire, A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting, J. Comput. System Sci. 55(1):119–139, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcss.1997.1504
  • R. E. Schapire and Y. Singer, Improved boosting algorithms using confidence-rated predictions, Machine Learning 37:297–336, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007614523901
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

An O(√nL)-Iteration Homogeneous and Self-Dual Linear Programming Algorithm 2: τᵏ Stays Bounded Below If (LP) Has an Optimum, and Otherwise κᵏ Stays Bounded Below and τᵏ/θᵏ Is BoundedResearch Paper

Motivation

Interior-point methods for linear programming are usually analysed under two assumptions: a strictly feasible starting point is known, and the problem has an optimal solution. In practice neither is known in advance. The homogeneous self-dual embedding of Ye, Todd and Mizuno (Math. Oper. Res. 19(1), 1994) removes both assumptions. It embeds a standard-form linear program and its dual into one artificial program that always has an obvious interior starting point. A solution of the artificial program either yields optimal solutions of the original pair or certifies that one of them is infeasible. The embedding underlies the infeasibility detection of several interior-point LP and conic solvers.

The paper's main result is an O(nL)O(\sqrt n L)O(n​L) iteration bound. Section 4, "Analysis of the output", asks a different, practical question: what can be read off the iterates if the algorithm is stopped early, at an approximate solution? Theorem 8 answers it. This mission formalizes Theorem 8 and the results its proof uses.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn. The primal and dual programs are

(LP) min⁡{cTx:Ax=b, x≥0},(LD) max⁡{bTy:ATy≤c},\text{(LP)}\ \min\{c^Tx : Ax=b,\ x\ge0\},\qquad \text{(LD)}\ \max\{b^Ty : A^Ty\le c\},(LP) min{cTx:Ax=b, x≥0},(LD) max{bTy:ATy≤c},

with dual slack s=c−ATys=c-A^Tys=c−ATy. An optimal solution pair is an optimal xˉ\bar xxˉ of (LP) together with an optimal (yˉ,sˉ)(\bar y,\bar s)(yˉ​,sˉ) of (LD).

Write eee for the all-ones vector and set bˉ=b−Ae\bar b=b-Aebˉ=b−Ae, cˉ=c−e\bar c=c-ecˉ=c−e, zˉ=cTe+1\bar z=c^Te+1zˉ=cTe+1. The homogeneous self-dual program (HLP), in the paper's normalization y0=0y^0=0y0=0, x0=s0=ex^0=s^0=ex0=s0=e, has variables (y,x,τ,θ,s,κ)(y,x,\tau,\theta,s,\kappa)(y,x,τ,θ,s,κ) with y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm, x,s∈Rnx,s\in\mathbb R^nx,s∈Rn, τ,θ,κ∈R\tau,\theta,\kappa\in\mathbb Rτ,θ,κ∈R:

min⁡(n+1)θs.t.Ax−bτ+bˉθ=0,s=−ATy+cτ−cˉθ ≥0,κ=bTy−cTx+zˉθ ≥0,−bˉTy+cˉTx−zˉτ=−(n+1),x≥0, τ≥0.\begin{array}{rl} \min & (n+1)\theta\\ \text{s.t.} & Ax-b\tau+\bar b\theta=0,\\ & s=-A^Ty+c\tau-\bar c\theta\ \ge0,\\ & \kappa=b^Ty-c^Tx+\bar z\theta\ \ge0,\\ & -\bar b^Ty+\bar c^Tx-\bar z\tau=-(n+1),\qquad x\ge0,\ \tau\ge0. \end{array}mins.t.​(n+1)θAx−bτ+bˉθ=0,s=−ATy+cτ−cˉθ ≥0,κ=bTy−cTx+zˉθ ≥0,−bˉTy+cˉTx−zˉτ=−(n+1),x≥0, τ≥0.​

Fh\mathcal F_hFh​ is its feasible set and Fh0\mathcal F_h^0Fh0​ the subset with x,τ,s,κ>0x,\tau,s,\kappa>0x,τ,s,κ>0. A self-complementary solution is an optimal solution of (HLP). A strictly self-complementary one also has θ=0\theta=0θ=0 and (x+s;τ+κ)>0(x+s;\tau+\kappa)>0(x+s;τ+κ)>0. For a point of (HLP) put μ=(xTs+τκ)/(n+1)\mu=(x^Ts+\tau\kappa)/(n+1)μ=(xTs+τκ)/(n+1), and for β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) let

N(β)={z∈Fh0:∥(Xsτκ)−μe∥2≤βμ}.\mathcal N(\beta)=\Bigl\{z\in\mathcal F_h^0 : \Bigl\|\begin{pmatrix}Xs\\ \tau\kappa\end{pmatrix}-\mu e\Bigr\|_2\le\beta\mu\Bigr\}.N(β)={z∈Fh0​:​(Xsτκ​)−μe​2​≤βμ}.

The predictor–corrector algorithm with β=1/4\beta=1/4β=1/4 starts at z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z^0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1). At even kkk (predictor step) it solves the Newton system (11)–(12) with target γμk=0\gamma\mu^k=0γμk=0 and moves along the direction by the largest step that stays in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β) (13). At odd kkk (corrector step) it solves the system with target μk\mu^kμk and takes a full step.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 63)

For every predictor–corrector sequence (yk,xk,τk,θk,sk,κk)(y^k,x^k,\tau^k,\theta^k,s^k,\kappa^k)(yk,xk,τk,θk,sk,κk):

  1. if (LP) possesses an optimal solution, then for every optimal pair xˉ,(yˉ,sˉ)\bar x,(\bar y,\bar s)xˉ,(yˉ​,sˉ)
τk≥1−2βeTxˉ+eTsˉ+1for all k;\tau^k\ge\frac{1-2\beta}{e^T\bar x+e^T\bar s+1}\quad\text{for all }k;τk≥eTxˉ+eTsˉ+11−2β​for all k;
  1. otherwise there is a fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, independent of kkk, with
κk≥(1−2β)εn+1,1−2β2(n+1)≤1−2βκk≤τkθk≤1+2βκk≤(n+1)(1+2β)(1−2β)ε\kappa^k\ge\frac{(1-2\beta)\varepsilon}{n+1},\qquad \frac{1-2\beta}{2(n+1)}\le\frac{1-2\beta}{\kappa^k}\le\frac{\tau^k}{\theta^k}\le\frac{1+2\beta}{\kappa^k}\le\frac{(n+1)(1+2\beta)}{(1-2\beta)\varepsilon}κk≥n+1(1−2β)ε​,2(n+1)1−2β​≤κk1−2β​≤θkτk​≤κk1+2β​≤(1−2β)ε(n+1)(1+2β)​

for all kkk.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  • the predictor-step and corrector-step claims from the proof of Theorem 6 (p. 62);
  • the iterates lie in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β) (p. 63);
  • Theorem 2 (iv): the optimal value of (HLP) is 000 and (n+1)θ=xTs+τκ(n+1)\theta=x^Ts+\tau\kappa(n+1)θ=xTs+τκ on Fh\mathcal F_hFh​ (stated for general x0,s0>0x^0,s^0>0x0,s0>0, y0y^0y0);
  • equation (9): eTx+eTs+τ+κ−(n+1)θ=n+1e^Tx+e^Ts+\tau+\kappa-(n+1)\theta=n+1eTx+eTs+τ+κ−(n+1)θ=n+1;
  • an optimal pair scaled by α=(n+1)/(eTxˉ+eTsˉ+1)\alpha=(n+1)/(e^T\bar x+e^T\bar s+1)α=(n+1)/(eTxˉ+eTsˉ+1) is a self-complementary solution;
  • the orthogonality identity (xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk(x^k)^Ts^*+(s^k)^Tx^*+\kappa^k\tau^*=(n+1)\theta^k(xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk;
  • Theorem 2 (v), existence of a strictly self-complementary solution;
  • Theorem 3 (i) and (ii), reading such a solution back into (LP) and (LD);
  • the bound κk≤(n+1)+(n+1)θk≤2(n+1)\kappa^k\le(n+1)+(n+1)\theta^k\le2(n+1)κk≤(n+1)+(n+1)θk≤2(n+1).

Significance

Theorem 8 is a stopping criterion. Either τk\tau^kτk stays bounded away from zero, which happens exactly when (LP) has an optimal solution, or τk\tau^kτk and θk\theta^kθk go to zero at the same rate while κk\kappa^kκk stays bounded away from zero. An implementation can therefore watch τk/θk\tau^k/\theta^kτk/θk and κk\kappa^kκk and decide the status of (LP) from an approximate iterate, without the exact rounding procedure needed for the O(nL)O(\sqrt nL)O(n​L) bound. The bounds hold for real data, with no integrality and no bit length.

Theorem 8 has a published proof on one page, building on the self-duality facts of §2 and the Mizuno–Todd–Ye step analysis. None of it is machine-checked. A complete development would give a verified account of the homogeneous self-dual embedding, including:

  • the skew-symmetric orthogonality argument;
  • Goldman–Tucker strict complementarity for (HLP);
  • the predictor–corrector neighborhood invariants.

These are the ingredients of every analysis of the embedding. Homogeneous self-dual programs appear on Prove2Me in other conventions (Vanderbei's (22.4) and (22.21), Matoušek's (SD)), but their statements concern different programs: no artificial variable θ\thetaθ, no normalizing row. They do not formalize any statement here.

Difficulty

The two branches of Theorem 8 rest on facts of different depth.

  • The first branch needs only an optimal pair of (LP)/(LD), lifted into (HLP), and the identity (xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk(x^k)^Ts^*+(s^k)^Tx^*+\kappa^k\tau^*=(n+1)\theta^k(xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk.
  • The "otherwise" branch needs an optimal solution of (HLP) with κ∗>0\kappa^*>0κ∗>0. Its existence is not elementary. It comes from strict complementarity (Theorem 2 (v)) together with the characterization of Theorem 3 (i). Strict complementarity for linear programs is the Goldman–Tucker theorem, which Mathlib does not contain.
  • The neighborhood invariants behind "the sequence is in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β)" are the Mizuno–Todd–Ye estimates. They need the orthogonality dxTds+dτdκ=0d_x^Td_s+d_\tau d_\kappa=0dxT​ds​+dτ​dκ​=0 of the Newton directions and a careful quadratic bound on ∥Dxds∥\|D_xd_s\|∥Dx​ds​∥.

The obvious first idea is to treat Theorem 8 as a consequence of Theorem 6. It fails: Theorem 8 is about every iterate of an infinite run and uses no iteration count. The constant ε\varepsilonε depends on the instance and is not explicit.

Formalization scope

  • Data. Real data A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, b : Fin m → ℝ, c : Fin n → ℝ, with no rank assumption and no integrality. (LP)/(LD) feasibility and optimality are built on the published general-form LP definition LinearOptimization_DualLP. "(LP) has a solution (feasible and bounded)" in Theorem 3 is read as "(LP) has an optimal solution".
  • Points. A point of (HLP) is a structure with fields y x τ θ s κ. The slacks s,κs,\kappas,κ are pinned to the constraint expressions. (HLP) is defined for general (x0,y0,s0)(x^0,y^0,s^0)(x0,y0,s0); the instance (7) is obtained by substitution. Optimality means minimizing the objective over Fh\mathcal F_hFh​, not "θ=0\theta=0θ=0", so Theorem 2 (iv) is not built into the definition.
  • Norm. The norm in N(β)\mathcal N(\beta)N(β) is the Euclidean norm on Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1, written out explicitly.
  • Constants. β=1/4\beta=1/4β=1/4 is a named constant. The statements show 1−2β1-2\beta1−2β and 1+2β1+2\beta1+2β as printed.
  • The iteration. It is a relation IsPCSequence: z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z^0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1), and each step is zk+1=zk+αdz^{k+1}=z^k+\alpha dzk+1=zk+αd for some solution ddd of (11)–(12). The relation is needed because dyd_ydy​ is not unique when AAA is rank-deficient.
  • Step size. The predictor step size must be the greatest element of the set in (13), as printed. On an instance where that maximum is not attained, no predictor–corrector sequence exists and Theorem 8 holds vacuously there. A sorry-free check shows that z0∈N(1/4)z^0\in\mathcal N(1/4)z0∈N(1/4) for all data, so the sequence does start.
  • The two branches. They are two implications with complementary hypotheses, "(LP) has an optimal solution" and its negation. The negation covers infeasible and unbounded (LP) alike.
  • Quantifiers. The first branch quantifies over all optimal pairs. In the second, ∃ε>0\exists\varepsilon>0∃ε>0 precedes ∀k\forall k∀k.
  • Divisions. The chain keeps the printed divisions. All denominators (κk\kappa^kκk, θk=μk\theta^k=\mu^kθk=μk) are positive on N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β), so Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 convention plays no role.
  • Ruled out. A formalization in which ε\varepsilonε may depend on kkk, or in which the first branch asserts the bound for only some optimal pair, would make Theorem 8 trivial or weaker. Both are excluded.

Needed infrastructure: LP duality and Goldman–Tucker strict complementarity for real standard-form programs, and the skew-symmetric orthogonality lemma. These are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments (e.g. via the central-path limit) for the existence of κ∗>0\kappa^*>0κ∗>0, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Ye, M. J. Todd, S. Mizuno, An O(nL)O(\sqrt nL)O(n​L)-Iteration Homogeneous and Self-Dual Linear Programming Algorithm, Mathematics of Operations Research 19(1), 53–67, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.19.1.53
  • S. Mizuno, M. J. Todd, Y. Ye, On Adaptive-Step Primal-Dual Interior-Point Algorithms for Linear Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(4), 964–981, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.964
  • O. Güler, Y. Ye, Convergence behavior of interior-point algorithms, Mathematical Programming 60, 215–228, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580610
  • A. J. Goldman, A. W. Tucker, Theory of linear programming, in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38, 53–97, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881987-005
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning Models with Uniform Performance via Distributionally Robust Optimization 2: A Minimax Lower Bound of Order n^(−1/2) ∨ n^(−1/k*) for Estimating the Cressie–Read Robust Risk (Theorem 3)Research Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization replaces the expected loss EP0[ℓ(θ;X)]\mathbb E_{P_0}[\ell(\theta; X)]EP0​​[ℓ(θ;X)] of a statistical model by its worst case over all distributions QQQ close to the data distribution P0P_0P0​. When closeness is measured by an fff-divergence ball {Q:Df(Q∥P0)≤ρ}\{Q : D_f(Q\|P_0) \le \rho\}{Q:Df​(Q∥P0​)≤ρ} of fixed radius ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, the robust risk upper-bounds the risk of every subpopulation of P0P_0P0​ that has sufficiently large probability, so a model with small robust risk performs uniformly well across latent subgroups. This is the program of J. C. Duchi and H. Namkoong, Learning Models with Uniform Performance via Distributionally Robust Optimization (arXiv:1810.08750; Ann. Statist. 49 (2021), doi:10.1214/20-AOS2004).

The robust risk is itself a statistical functional. It is estimated by plugging in the empirical distribution, and the paper shows (its Theorem 2) that for the Cressie–Read family of divergences with parameter kkk the plug-in estimate concentrates at rate n−1/(k∗∨2)n^{-1/(k_* \vee 2)}n−1/(k∗​∨2), with k∗=k/(k−1)k_* = k/(k-1)k∗​=k/(k−1). For small kkk (heavy protection against distribution shift) k∗k_*k∗​ is large and this rate is far slower than the parametric n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2. This mission formalizes the paper's answer to whether the slow rate is an artefact of the plug-in estimator or intrinsic: its Theorem 3, a minimax lower bound valid for every estimator.

Setting

Fix k∈(1,∞)k \in (1,\infty)k∈(1,∞) and write k∗=k/(k−1)k_* = k/(k-1)k∗​=k/(k−1). The Cressie–Read function is

fk(t)=tk−kt+k−1k(k−1)(t≥0),fk(t)=+∞(t<0).f_k(t) = \frac{t^k - kt + k - 1}{k(k-1)} \quad (t \ge 0), \qquad f_k(t) = +\infty \quad (t < 0).fk​(t)=k(k−1)tk−kt+k−1​(t≥0),fk​(t)=+∞(t<0).

For a probability measure PPP, a real random variable ZZZ and a radius ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, the robust risk is

Rk(Z)=sup⁡{EP[LZ]:L≥0, EP[L]=1, EP[fk(L)]≤ρ},\mathcal R_k(Z) = \sup\Bigl\{ \mathbb E_P[LZ] : L \ge 0,\ \mathbb E_P[L] = 1,\ \mathbb E_P[f_k(L)] \le \rho \Bigr\},Rk​(Z)=sup{EP​[LZ]:L≥0, EP​[L]=1, EP​[fk​(L)]≤ρ},

the supremum of EQ[Z]\mathbb E_Q[Z]EQ​[Z] over distributions Q≪PQ \ll PQ≪P with likelihood ratio L=dQ/dPL = dQ/dPL=dQ/dP and Cressie–Read divergence Dfk(Q∥P)=EP[fk(L)]D_{f_k}(Q\|P) = \mathbb E_P[f_k(L)]Dfk​​(Q∥P)=EP​[fk​(L)] at most ρ\rhoρ.

Write

ck(ρ)=(1+k(k−1)ρ)1/k,pk=(1+k(k−1)ρ)−1/(k−1),βk=k(k−1)ρ2(1+k(k−1)ρ).c_k(\rho) = (1 + k(k-1)\rho)^{1/k}, \qquad p_k = (1 + k(k-1)\rho)^{-1/(k-1)}, \qquad \beta_k = \frac{k(k-1)\rho}{2(1+k(k-1)\rho)} .ck​(ρ)=(1+k(k−1)ρ)1/k,pk​=(1+k(k−1)ρ)−1/(k−1),βk​=2(1+k(k−1)ρ)k(k−1)ρ​.

Fix M>0M > 0M>0 and let P\mathcal PP be the set of all distributions on the two points {0,M}\{0, M\}{0,M}; each is determined by its mass p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1] at MMM. An estimator is any function R^:{0,M}n→R\widehat R : \{0, M\}^n \to \mathbb RR:{0,M}n→R of a sample Z1n=(Z1,…,Zn)Z_1^n = (Z_1, \dots, Z_n)Z1n​=(Z1​,…,Zn​) drawn i.i.d. from P0∈PP_0 \in \mathcal PP0​∈P. The minimax risk of estimating the robust risk is

Mn(P,fk)=inf⁡R^ sup⁡P0∈P EP0n∣R^(Z1n)−Rk(Z)∣,Z∼P0.(16)\mathfrak M_n(\mathcal P, f_k) = \inf_{\widehat R}\ \sup_{P_0 \in \mathcal P}\ \mathbb E_{P_0^n}\bigl|\widehat R(Z_1^n) - \mathcal R_k(Z)\bigr|, \qquad Z \sim P_0. \qquad (16)Mn​(P,fk​)=Rinf​ P0​∈Psup​ EP0n​​​R(Z1n​)−Rk​(Z)​,Z∼P0​.(16)

The total variation distance between two product laws Pn,P′nP^n, P'^nPn,P′n on the finite set {0,M}n\{0,M\}^n{0,M}n is ∥Pn−P′n∥TV=12∑z∣Pn{z}−P′n{z}∣\|P^n - P'^n\|_{\mathrm{TV}} = \tfrac12\sum_z |P^n\{z\} - P'^n\{z\}|∥Pn−P′n∥TV​=21​∑z​∣Pn{z}−P′n{z}∣, and DklD_{\mathrm{kl}}Dkl​ denotes the Kullback–Leibler divergence.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1,

Mn(P,fk)≥Mmax⁡{18k∗pk(pk(1−pk)16n∧12(1−pk)∧pk),  18βk1/kck(ρ)(14n∧pk∧(1−(1−βk)1−k∗pk))1/k∗}.\mathfrak M_n(\mathcal P, f_k) \ge M \max\Biggl\{ \frac{1}{8 k_* p_k}\Bigl( \sqrt{\frac{p_k(1-p_k)}{16 n}} \wedge \tfrac12(1-p_k) \wedge p_k \Bigr),\ \ \frac18 \beta_k^{1/k} c_k(\rho) \Bigl( \frac{1}{4n} \wedge p_k \wedge \bigl(1 - (1-\beta_k)^{1-k_*} p_k\bigr) \Bigr)^{1/k_*} \Biggr\}.Mn​(P,fk​)≥Mmax{8k∗​pk​1​(16npk​(1−pk​)​​∧21​(1−pk​)∧pk​),  81​βk1/k​ck​(ρ)(4n1​∧pk​∧(1−(1−βk​)1−k∗​pk​))1/k∗​}.

The first branch is of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2, the second of order n−1/k∗n^{-1/k_*}n−1/k∗​. The page prints 8n8n8n in the first branch; the target uses 16n16n16n (see Formalization scope).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 12 (three claims): for ZZZ equal to z0≤z1z_0 \le z_1z0​≤z1​ with probabilities 1−p1-p1−p, ppp: if p≥pkp \ge p_kp≥pk​ then Rk(Z)=z1\mathcal R_k(Z) = z_1Rk​(Z)=z1​; if p≤pkp \le p_kp≤pk​ then Rk(Z)≤ckp1/k∗z1+(1−ckp1/k∗)z0\mathcal R_k(Z) \le c_k p^{1/k_*} z_1 + (1 - c_k p^{1/k_*}) z_0Rk​(Z)≤ck​p1/k∗​z1​+(1−ck​p1/k∗​)z0​; and if p≤pk∧(1−(1−β)1−k∗pk)p \le p_k \wedge (1 - (1-\beta)^{1-k_*} p_k)p≤pk​∧(1−(1−β)1−k∗​pk​) for some β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1) then Rk(Z)≥β1/kckp1/k∗z1+(1−β1/kckp1/k∗)z0\mathcal R_k(Z) \ge \beta^{1/k} c_k p^{1/k_*} z_1 + (1 - \beta^{1/k} c_k p^{1/k_*}) z_0Rk​(Z)≥β1/kck​p1/k∗​z1​+(1−β1/kck​p1/k∗​)z0​.
  2. The primal two-point formula (p. 47): for p∈(0,1)p \in (0,1)p∈(0,1),
Rk(Z)=z0+(z1−z0)sup⁡{q∈[0,1]:(1−p)1−k(1−q)k+p1−kqk≤ckk}.\mathcal R_k(Z) = z_0 + (z_1 - z_0)\sup\{q \in [0,1] : (1-p)^{1-k}(1-q)^k + p^{1-k}q^k \le c_k^k\}.Rk​(Z)=z0​+(z1​−z0​)sup{q∈[0,1]:(1−p)1−k(1−q)k+p1−kqk≤ckk​}.
  1. Le Cam's reduction (37): if ∣Rk(P0)−Rk(P1)∣≥2δ>0|\mathcal R_k(P_0) - \mathcal R_k(P_1)| \ge 2\delta > 0∣Rk​(P0​)−Rk​(P1​)∣≥2δ>0 then Mn≥δ2(1−∥P0n−P1n∥TV)\mathfrak M_n \ge \frac\delta2(1 - \|P_0^n - P_1^n\|_{\mathrm{TV}})Mn​≥2δ​(1−∥P0n​−P1n​∥TV​).
  2. The Taylor display ck(pk−δ)1/k∗≤1−1k∗ckk∗δc_k(p_k - \delta)^{1/k_*} \le 1 - \frac{1}{k_*}c_k^{k_*}\deltack​(pk​−δ)1/k∗​≤1−k∗​1​ckk∗​​δ for 0<δ≤pk0 < \delta \le p_k0<δ≤pk​.
  3. The KL display Dkl(P2∥P1)≤8δ2/(pk(1−pk))D_{\mathrm{kl}}(P_2\|P_1) \le 8\delta^2/(p_k(1-p_k))Dkl​(P2​∥P1​)≤8δ2/(pk​(1−pk​)) for the laws with masses pk∓δp_k \mp \deltapk​∓δ at MMM.
  4. Pinsker for products ∥P1n−P2n∥TV2≤n2Dkl(P2∥P1)\|P_1^n - P_2^n\|_{\mathrm{TV}}^2 \le \frac n2 D_{\mathrm{kl}}(P_2\|P_1)∥P1n​−P2n​∥TV2​≤2n​Dkl​(P2​∥P1​).
  5. The second-branch KL display −log⁡(1−δ)≤δ/(1−δ)≤2δ-\log(1-\delta) \le \delta/(1-\delta) \le 2\delta−log(1−δ)≤δ/(1−δ)≤2δ for δ≤12\delta \le \frac12δ≤21​.

Significance

Theorem 3 shows that the rate n−1/(k∗∨2)n^{-1/(k_* \vee 2)}n−1/(k∗​∨2) of the paper's concentration bound for the plug-in robust risk cannot be improved by any estimator, even when the data take only two values. For k<2k < 2k<2 the robust risk is therefore intrinsically harder to estimate than a mean: its value depends on how much mass P0P_0P0​ puts on rare large values, and rare events are observed rarely. The same phenomenon drives the paper's lower bounds for minimizing the robust risk (its Section 5.2), which are not part of this mission.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version of it or of Lemma 12 is known. Formalizing it produces a verified two-point analysis of the Cressie–Read robust risk (Lemma 12 and its primal formula), which is reusable for any lower bound or worked example involving fff-divergence balls, and a verified finite-sample Le Cam two-point bound for estimating a functional of a distribution on two points. It also corrects a constant in the first branch of the printed statement.

Difficulty

The lower bound needs two distributions on {0,M}\{0,M\}{0,M} that are statistically close yet have well-separated robust risks. Both requirements must be quantitative and must hold simultaneously at the stated constants. The robust risk is a supremum over an infinite-dimensional set of likelihood ratios, so the separation needs exact control of that supremum for two-point laws: an exact value above the threshold pkp_kpk​, and matching upper and lower bounds below it. For mass near pkp_kpk​ the separation is linear in δ\deltaδ, while for small mass it is of order δ1/k∗\delta^{1/k_*}δ1/k∗​, which is where the slow rate comes from. Closeness requires the KL divergence of each pair to be at most 1/(2n)1/(2n)1/(2n), and the two branches need different perturbations. A naive bound on the robust risk by max⁡(z0,z1)\max(z_0, z_1)max(z0​,z1​) or by the mean gives no separation at all.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace UniformDRO.LowerBound. Its conventions are:

  • k>1k > 1k>1, ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, M>0M > 0M>0 (all on the page); n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 in the goal (implicit on the page, since the bound contains 1/n1/n1/n).
  • The robust risk is the real supremum in the likelihood-ratio form above, with the divergence constraint written as a lower Lebesgue integral of fk(L)≥0f_k(L) \ge 0fk​(L)≥0. Absolute continuity Q≪PQ \ll PQ≪P is built in. For a two-point law the feasible values lie between the two points, so the supremum is genuine.
  • Laws on {0,M}\{0,M\}{0,M} are (1−p)δ0+p δM(1-p)\delta_0 + p\,\delta_M(1−p)δ0​+pδM​, p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1]. Expectations under P0nP_0^nP0n​ are finite sums over {0,M}n\{0,M\}^n{0,M}n. The minimax risk takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with the infimum over all real functions of the sample taken outside the supremum over ppp. For these laws it agrees with the platform's general HighDimStat.Minimax.minimaxRisk.
  • DklD_{\mathrm{kl}}Dkl​ between two-point laws is the platform's BanditAlgorithm.bernoulliRelativeEntropy, always evaluated with a second argument in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), where it is the true divergence.
  • Real powers are Real.rpow. The primal formula is stated for p∈(0,1)p \in (0,1)p∈(0,1), where its negative powers are finite.
  • Correction of the print. In Theorem 3 the page has pk(1−pk)/(8n)\sqrt{p_k(1-p_k)/(8n)}pk​(1−pk​)/(8n)​. The paper's argument with that choice gives Dkl≤1/nD_{\mathrm{kl}} \le 1/nDkl​≤1/n and, by Pinsker, total variation at most 1/21/\sqrt21/2​, which does not yield the printed constant 1/(8k∗pk)1/(8k_*p_k)1/(8k∗​pk​). The target uses 16n16n16n, for which the same argument gives total variation at most 12\tfrac1221​ and exactly the printed constant. The second branch is as printed. The milestone quotes keep the page's text.

The goal is the lower bound on the minimax risk (16) over all estimators and all laws on {0,M}\{0,M\}{0,M}. It does not mention the two hypotheses, δ\deltaδ, total variation or KL divergence, so it cannot be satisfied by a statement about a particular pair of laws or a particular estimator.

Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of Lemma 12 through the primal formula or through the dual representation of the robust risk, a general finite-space Le Cam lemma, and tensorization of KL and Pinsker for finite products, which are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. C. Duchi and H. Namkoong, Learning Models with Uniform Performance via Distributionally Robust Optimization, Ann. Statist. 49(3), 2021; arXiv:1810.08750v6. https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.08750, https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOS2004
  • L. Le Cam, Asymptotic Methods in Statistical Decision Theory, Springer, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4946-7
  • B. Yu, Assouad, Fano, and Le Cam, in Festschrift for Lucien Le Cam, Springer, 1997, 423–435. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1880-7_29
  • A. B. Tsybakov, Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/b13794
  • N. Cressie and T. R. C. Read, Multinomial goodness-of-fit tests, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 46(3), 1984, 440–464. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1984.tb01318.x
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models V: If σ_T ≤ Σσ_i and σ_T ≥ σ_i, Pooling Strictly Lowers the Expected Cost of Logit Newsvendors with Normal DemandsResearch Paper

Motivation

Inventory pooling lets several locations serve their combined demand from one stock of goods. Classical newsvendor analysis predicts lower optimal cost when pooling reduces demand variation, but the reduction can vanish when demands are perfectly correlated. Xuanming Su asks whether that conclusion survives when managers make noisy stocking decisions rather than always choose the optimum. In the published 2008 article, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, the decision noise follows a continuous logit model, in which better quantities are chosen more often. Proposition 7 gives conditions under which pooling strictly lowers expected cost, including a case where classical pooling has no cost gain. Su, 2008

The question matters for multilocation inventory systems because an order quantity is a decision as well as a response to demand. Pooling changes both the distribution of demand faced by the system and the number of independently chosen orders. A comparison based only on optimal costs leaves the second change out. This mission isolates the paper's mathematical claim about the combined effect of demand and decision variation. Su, 2008, §9

Setting

There are nnn locations. Demand at location iii is normally distributed with mean μi\mu_iμi​ and standard deviation σi\sigma_iσi​. The total demand has normal law with mean μT=∑iμi\mu_T=\sum_i\mu_iμT​=∑i​μi​ and standard deviation σT\sigma_TσT​. An order of xxx against a realized demand DDD incurs holding cost h(x−D)+h(x-D)^+h(x−D)+ for unsold units and backlog cost b(D−x)+b(D-x)^+b(D−x)+ for unmet demand. Its expected cost is γ(x)\gamma(x)γ(x). The decentralized system incurs one such cost at each location; the pooled system orders once for total demand. The published InventoryControl_newsboy definition supplies this Gaussian expected cost, with the same orientation of holding and backlog penalties as Su's equations (29) and (31). Su, 2008, p. 584

For an expected profit function π\piπ on a decision set SSS, the logit choice density is proportional to eπ(x)/βe^{\pi(x)/\beta}eπ(x)/β on SSS, where β>0\beta>0β>0 is a common bounded-rationality parameter. Larger β\betaβ spreads choices more widely; smaller positive β\betaβ concentrates them near high-profit choices. For normal demand, the decision domain is all of R\mathbb RR. With p=h+bp=h+bp=h+b and c=hc=hc=h, expected profit differs from minus expected cost by a constant independent of the order. The same logit law is therefore obtained from utility −γ(x)-\gamma(x)−γ(x). The random behavioral order is denoted XibX_i^bXib​ at location iii and XTbX_T^bXTb​ for the pool. Su, 2008, pp. 571–572, 584

Formalization targets

Strict pooling reduction

The goal is Proposition 7. Under positive holding and backlog costs, one common positive β\betaβ, at least two locations, positive individual standard deviations, and

σT≤∑i=1nσi,σT≥σifor every i,\sigma_T\leq\sum_{i=1}^{n}\sigma_i, \qquad \sigma_T\geq\sigma_i\quad\text{for every }i,σT​≤i=1∑n​σi​,σT​≥σi​for every i,

the claim is

E[γT(XTb)]<∑i=1nE[γi(Xib)].\mathbb E\bigl[\gamma_T(X_T^b)\bigr] <\sum_{i=1}^{n}\mathbb E\bigl[\gamma_i(X_i^b)\bigr].E[γT​(XTb​)]<i=1∑n​E[γi​(Xib​)].

The first standard-deviation inequality is automatic for the sum of jointly normal demands. The second excludes a total demand whose standard deviation is smaller than an individual location's. The result still includes perfect positive correlation, where the first inequality is an equality. Su, 2008, Proposition 7, p. 585

Supporting statements

Five milestones record the source's route to that comparison: invariance of the choice distribution under an order-preserving affine change of quantity (Lemma 1), invariance under an additive shift in utility (Lemma 2), standardization of the Gaussian newsvendor objective (equation (63)), the optimum of the canonical standard-normal newsvendor and the nonpositivity of its profit, and the comparison of its expected values at different positive scales. The milestone text preserves the wording of the printed article; the precise Lean conditions and corrections are stated with the items. Su, 2008, pp. 572, 587–588

Significance

The strict inequality separates two mechanisms of pooling. Demand aggregation can reduce variability, while a single pooled order also avoids accumulating the costs of several noisy decisions. Proposition 7 shows that the latter mechanism can make the cost reduction strict even when perfect correlation removes the usual variance benefit. It provides a condition that can be checked from individual and total standard deviations, rather than requiring an explicit covariance matrix in the final comparison. Su, 2008, pp. 584–585

The result is proved in the paper; the remaining task is a machine-checked formalization of its definitions and argument. The Gaussian expected-cost object is already published on Prove2Me, while the continuous logit law and this behavioral pooling theorem are new to this mission. The invariance statements and canonical profit comparison are reusable wherever a continuous logit rule acts on a transformed one-dimensional objective.

Difficulty

The usual pooling comparison evaluates cost at an optimal order. Here each system draws its order from a different continuous probability law, and the cost to compare is averaged over those choices. Comparing σT\sigma_TσT​ with ∑iσi\sum_i\sigma_i∑i​σi​ alone does not compare the logit distributions; in particular, it gives equality under perfect positive correlation while the target is strict. A formal development must also show that the normalizing integrals and the resulting cost expectations are genuine finite integrals for every set of parameters covered by the theorem.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses Mathlib's real Gaussian law with variance σ2\sigma^2σ2 and the published InventoryControl_newsboy.newsboyCost for equations (29) and (31). It records the choice density, CDF, expectation, canonical profit, and behavioral expected cost as separate definitions. The behavioral density uses e−γ/βe^{-\gamma/\beta}e−γ/β on R\mathbb RR; the utility shift from profit is covered by Lemma 2. The theorem specifies normal marginals and a normal total with mean ∑iμi\sum_i\mu_i∑i​μi​ and standard deviation σT\sigma_TσT​. Every jointly normal demand vector in the paper yields these laws, and the final comparison uses no further feature of its joint distribution.

The conditions h>0h>0h>0, b>0b>0b>0, and β>0\beta>0β>0 are standing readings needed for the continuous choice law on the unbounded domain. Proposition 7 additionally states n≥2n\geq2n≥2 and σi>0\sigma_i>0σi​>0: for one location the alleged strict comparison becomes equality, while zero variance makes the paper's continuous density on a point support undefined. Lemma 1 requires positive affine scale because a negative scale reverses CDF order, and its two invariance lemmas require a finite positive normalizer. Equation (66) is read with min⁡(Z,z)\min(Z,z)min(Z,z), as dictated by the surrounding formulas; the printed display drops the word “min.” These corrections and the cost-based choice convention are recorded item by item in the moderation notes.

No optimizer is supplied as a free variable, and no zero normalizer is allowed to turn a logit expectation into a trivial zero. Useful solver contributions include proofs that the cost-based logit normalizer and expected cost are integrable, Gaussian change-of-variables lemmas, and the strict scale comparison. These analytic facts can serve other continuous-choice models.

Selected references

  • Xuanming Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(4):566–589, 2008. DOI: 10.1287/msom.1070.0200.
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A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand 1: AIM's Average Expected Cost Is Within O(1/√T) of the Newsvendor Cost, Perishable and Non-PerishableResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer who restocks a product every period must choose an order-up-to level without knowing the demand distribution, and in most retail settings it observes only sales, the minimum of demand and stock. Demand above the stock is lost and never recorded. This is censored demand: the data needed to estimate the distribution are truncated exactly at the decision. Classical inventory theory assumes the distribution is known, and then the optimal policy in the stationary case is to order up to the newsvendor quantity in every period.

Huh and Rusmevichientong (Math. Oper. Res. 34(1), 2009) give a nonparametric policy that learns from censored sales alone, the Adaptive Inventory Management (AIM) algorithm, and prove that its average expected cost approaches the newsvendor cost at rate 1/T1/\sqrt T1/T​. The perishable case reduces to online convex optimization in the sense of Zinkevich (2003) and Flaxman, Kalai and McMahan (2005). The non-perishable case is new: leftover stock constrains the next decision, and the paper controls this constraint through a single-server queue.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,⋯≥0D_1, D_2, \dots \ge 0D1​,D2​,⋯≥0 are independent and identically distributed with an unknown law of finite mean; DDD denotes a generic demand and FFF its distribution function. A holding cost h>0h > 0h>0 is paid per unit left over and a penalty b>0b > 0b>0 per unit of lost demand. The newsvendor cost of a level y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 is

Q(y)=h E[y−D]++b E[D−y]+,Q(y) = h\,E[y-D]^+ + b\,E[D-y]^+ ,Q(y)=hE[y−D]++bE[D−y]+,

and the newsvendor quantity is yNV=inf⁡{y≥0∣F(y)≥b/(b+h)}y^{NV} = \inf\{y \ge 0 \mid F(y) \ge b/(b+h)\}yNV=inf{y≥0∣F(y)≥b/(b+h)}.

In period ttt the manager holds xt≥0x_t \ge 0xt​≥0 units (x1=0x_1 = 0x1​=0), raises the stock to yt≥xty_t \ge x_tyt​≥xt​, and observes min⁡{Dt,yt}\min\{D_t, y_t\}min{Dt​,yt​}. Excess inventory is either perishable (xt+1=0x_{t+1} = 0xt+1​=0) or non-perishable (xt+1=[yt−Dt]+x_{t+1} = [y_t - D_t]^+xt+1​=[yt​−Dt​]+).

Assumption 1 gives the manager a bound yˉ≥yNV\bar y \ge y^{NV}yˉ​≥yNV, and in the non-perishable case a bound ρ\rhoρ with 0<ρ<E[D1]0 < \rho < E[D_1]0<ρ<E[D1​]. AIM keeps a target y^t\hat y_ty^​t​ and an implemented level yty_tyt​: y1=y^1∈[0,yˉ]y_1 = \hat y_1 \in [0, \bar y]y1​=y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​], and for t≥1t \ge 1t≥1

y^t+1=P[0,yˉ](y^t−ϵtHt(y^t)),yt+1=max⁡{y^t+1,xt+1},\hat y_{t+1} = P_{[0,\bar y]}\big(\hat y_t - \epsilon_t H_t(\hat y_t)\big), \qquad y_{t+1} = \max\{\hat y_{t+1}, x_{t+1}\},y^​t+1​=P[0,yˉ​]​(y^​t​−ϵt​Ht​(y^​t​)),yt+1​=max{y^​t+1​,xt+1​},

with the projection P[0,yˉ](z)=max⁡{min⁡{z,yˉ},0}P_{[0,\bar y]}(z) = \max\{\min\{z,\bar y\},0\}P[0,yˉ​]​(z)=max{min{z,yˉ​},0}, steps ϵt=γyˉ/(max⁡{b,h}t)\epsilon_t = \gamma\bar y/(\max\{b,h\}\sqrt t)ϵt​=γyˉ​/(max{b,h}t​) for a scale γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, and the censored gradient estimate Ht(y^t)=hH_t(\hat y_t) = hHt​(y^​t​)=h if Dt<y^tD_t < \hat y_tDt​<y^​t​ and −b-b−b if Dt≥y^tD_t \ge \hat y_tDt​≥y^​t​. The manager can compute HtH_tHt​ from the observed sales.

For θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 the waiting times W1(θ)=0W_1(\theta) = 0W1​(θ)=0, Wt+1(θ)=[Wt(θ)+θ−Dt]+W_{t+1}(\theta) = [W_t(\theta) + \theta - D_t]^+Wt+1​(θ)=[Wt​(θ)+θ−Dt​]+ describe a GI/D/1 queue with inter-arrival times DtD_tDt​ and service time θ\thetaθ. Its busy periods Ji(θ)J_i(\theta)Ji​(θ) are the stretches between successive returns to 000. The auxiliary queue Z1(θ)=0Z_1(\theta) = 0Z1​(θ)=0, Zt+1(θ)=[Zt(θ)+θ/t−Dt]+Z_{t+1}(\theta) = [Z_t(\theta) + \theta/\sqrt t - D_t]^+Zt+1​(θ)=[Zt​(θ)+θ/t​−Dt​]+ has shrinking service times.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

For every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, in the perishable case

E[1T∑t=1TQ(yt)]−Q(yNV)≤(γ+1γ)yˉmax⁡{b,h}T,E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T Q(y_t)\Big] - Q(y^{NV}) \le \Big(\gamma + \frac1\gamma\Big)\frac{\bar y\max\{b,h\}}{\sqrt T},E[T1​t=1∑T​Q(yt​)]−Q(yNV)≤(γ+γ1​)T​yˉ​max{b,h}​,

and in the non-perishable case, if E[D16]<∞E[D_1^6] < \inftyE[D16​]<∞ and γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma \le \rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), there is a constant CCC, independent of TTT, with

E[1T∑t=1TQ(yt)]−Q(yNV)≤CT.E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T Q(y_t)\Big] - Q(y^{NV}) \le \frac{C}{\sqrt T}.E[T1​t=1∑T​Q(yt​)]−Q(yNV)≤T​C​.

The non-perishable bullet asserts only the existence of CCC, because the paper's explicit formula (9) depends on Proposition 4 (i), which is false as printed.

Milestones

  • §2.4: QQQ is convex with left derivative hP{D<y}−bP{D≥y}h P\{D<y\} - bP\{D\ge y\}hP{D<y}−bP{D≥y}, and E[Ht∣y^t]E[H_t \mid \hat y_t]E[Ht​∣y^​t​] equals it.
  • Lemma 3: projected stochastic subgradient descent with steps γdiam⁡(S)/(Bˉt)\gamma\operatorname{diam}(S)/(\bar B\sqrt t)γdiam(S)/(Bˉt​) has average error at most (γ+1/γ)diam⁡(S)Bˉ/T(\gamma + 1/\gamma)\operatorname{diam}(S)\bar B/\sqrt T(γ+1/γ)diam(S)Bˉ/T​.
  • §2.4: Q(y)−Q(y^)≤h(y−y^)Q(y) - Q(\hat y) \le h(y - \hat y)Q(y)−Q(y^​)≤h(y−y^​) for 0≤y^≤y0 \le \hat y \le y0≤y^​≤y.
  • Theorem 6: if γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma \le \rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), then yt−y^t≤Zt(ρ)y_t - \hat y_t \le Z_t(\rho)yt​−y^​t​≤Zt​(ρ).
  • Lemma 13: E∣Ji(θ,t)(θ)∣≤E[∣J1(θ)∣2]E|J_{i(\theta,t)}(\theta)| \le E[|J_1(\theta)|^2]E∣Ji(θ,t)​(θ)∣≤E[∣J1​(θ)∣2].
  • Lemma 5: E[∑t=1TZt(θ)]≤2θE[∣J1(θ)∣2]TE[\sum_{t=1}^T Z_t(\theta)] \le 2\theta E[|J_1(\theta)|^2]\sqrt TE[∑t=1T​Zt​(θ)]≤2θE[∣J1​(θ)∣2]T​.
  • Lemma 12: E[(∑i≤nXi)6]≤21n3EX16E[(\sum_{i\le n} X_i)^6] \le 21 n^3 E X_1^6E[(∑i≤n​Xi​)6]≤21n3EX16​ for i.i.d. mean-zero XiX_iXi​ (and the fourth-moment analogue).
  • Proposition 4 (i), corrected: E[∣J1(θ)∣2]≤1+21π22E[(D1−ED1)6]/(ED1−θ)6E[|J_1(\theta)|^2] \le 1 + \tfrac{21\pi^2}{2}E[(D_1 - ED_1)^6]/(ED_1 - \theta)^6E[∣J1​(θ)∣2]≤1+221π2​E[(D1​−ED1​)6]/(ED1​−θ)6 for 0<θ<E[D1]0 < \theta < E[D_1]0<θ<E[D1​].

Significance

Theorem 2 shows that a manager who never observes lost sales can still reach the cost of a manager who knows the distribution, at a dimension-free rate, under only a sixth-moment condition in the non-perishable case. The example of §2.5 of the paper shows that the rate 1/T1/\sqrt T1/T​ cannot be improved in general for AIM. Theorem 6, the coupling of the excess inventory yt−y^ty_t - \hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ with a queue, is the step that handles decisions constrained by past decisions, and the same paper reuses it when ρ\rhoρ is unknown (§3.2).

The results are proved in the paper, and none of them is formalized as far as is known. This mission formalizes them and also corrects them: Proposition 4 (i) fails for deterministic demand, its explicit constant has to be replaced, and Eq. (2) labels a right derivative as a left one. Lemma 3 for decreasing steps and Lemma 12 are standard tools that are not in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The perishable case is a stochastic subgradient method, but its estimates are conditionally unbiased only given the current iterate, and QQQ is merely convex, not differentiable, so the textbook smooth argument does not apply directly. In the non-perishable case the implemented levels yty_tyt​ are not the gradient iterates, and yt−y^ty_t - \hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ is not small along a path: carried-over stock can keep yty_tyt​ above the target for many periods. A bound on E[yt−y^t]E[y_t - \hat y_t]E[yt​−y^​t​] for each ttt does not follow from a bound on one period. The queue Zt(ρ)Z_t(\rho)Zt​(ρ) dominates the whole excess process, but it is non-stationary. Its sum has to be compared with the stationary queue Wt(ρ)W_t(\rho)Wt​(ρ), whose busy period covering a fixed time is length-biased, so second moments of busy periods enter.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace AIMInventory.Known. The demand law and the i.i.d. path measure are the published CappedBaseStock.DemandLaw and demandPathLaw, whose law has finite and strictly positive mean. QQQ and yNVy^{NV}yNV are the published backorderCost and newsvendorLevel of LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.Backorder. The optimality of yNVy^{NV}yNV is the already posed LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.newsvendor_optimal and is included as a reference.

Conventions:

  • The demand path is zero-based (DtD_tDt​ is d (t - 1)), and all paper indices t≥1t \ge 1t≥1 are kept.
  • The AIM run, WWW, ZZZ, the renewal epochs and the busy periods are functions of the demand path, defined by recursion exactly as printed.
  • The queue indexing is W1=Z1=0W_1 = Z_1 = 0W1​=Z1​=0 and τ0=1\tau_0 = 1τ0​=1 (the paper's W0W_0W0​, Z0Z_0Z0​ need an undefined D0D_0D0​ and θ/0\theta/\sqrt 0θ/0​). Period 111 lies in no busy period, so Lemma 13 is stated for t≥2t \ge 2t≥2.
  • Busy-period lengths are ℕ∞-valued. Every expectation that can be infinite is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The expectations in Theorem 2 have bounded integrands.
  • Readings of loose phrases:
    • "for some γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0" means for every γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0;
    • "any value in [0,yˉ][0,\bar y][0,yˉ​]" means for every y^1∈[0,yˉ]\hat y_1 \in [0, \bar y]y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​];
    • "with probability one" in Theorem 6 means for every demand path;
    • "There is a constant CCC" means ∃C, ∀T≥1\exists C,\ \forall T \ge 1∃C, ∀T≥1.
  • The implicit positivity of hhh, bbb, yˉ\bar yyˉ​ (they appear in denominators) is added as hypotheses.
  • Lemma 3 is stated on Rn\mathbb R^nRn for every comparator u∈Su \in Su∈S, with E[H(z)∣z]E[H(z)\mid z]E[H(z)∣z] read as conditioning on the σ-algebra of the current iterate.
  • Proposition 4 (ii) and the explicit constant (9) are not stated.

The mission does not accept a formalization that sums over arbitrary sequences with yt≥y^ty_t \ge \hat y_tyt​≥y^​t​ instead of the AIM run, uses an uncensored gradient, or lets a non-integrable expectation default to 000.

Contributions toward a stochastic subgradient method with anytime steps, moment bounds for i.i.d. sums, and busy periods of Lindley's recursion are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(1), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Flaxman, A. T. Kalai, H. B. McMahan, Online Convex Optimization in the Bandit Setting: Gradient Descent without a Gradient, SODA 2005. https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0408007
  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization, Machine Learning 69, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
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A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand 3: For Any Step Scale γ, Non-Perishable AIM's Excess Cost Λ₂(T) Is Bounded by a Hitting Time and a Busy PeriodResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer who stocks a perishable or storable product each period must choose an order-up-to level without knowing the demand distribution. Worse, demand is censored: when the shelf empties, the retailer observes sales, not demand. Huh and Rusmevichientong (Math. Oper. Res. 34(1), 2009) proposed the Adaptive Inventory Management (AIM) algorithm, a projected stochastic subgradient method that uses only the censored observation "was there stock left at the end of the period?". They proved that its average expected cost converges to the cost of the optimal newsvendor level at rate O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​), with no parametric assumption on demand.

In the non-perishable case, where leftover stock carries over, the main convergence theorem (Theorem 2, p. 7) requires the step-size scale γ\gammaγ to satisfy γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma\le\rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), where ρ\rhoρ is a known lower bound on mean demand. Section 3.2 of the paper removes this requirement. Its Theorem 8 bounds the excess cost of AIM for every step scale γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, at the price of a hitting time and a busy period in the bound. This mission formalizes Theorem 8 and the steps of its proof.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\dotsD1​,D2​,… are independent, nonnegative, identically distributed, with finite positive mean E[D1]E[D_1]E[D1​] and otherwise unknown law. The holding cost is h>0h>0h>0 per unit left over and the penalty is b>0b>0b>0 per unit of unmet demand. The newsvendor cost of stocking up to y≥0y\ge0y≥0 is

Q(y)=h E[y−D1]++b E[D1−y]+,Q(y)=h\,E[y-D_1]^+ + b\,E[D_1-y]^+ ,Q(y)=hE[y−D1​]++bE[D1​−y]+,

and the newsvendor quantity is yNV=inf⁡{y≥0:P(D1≤y)≥b/(b+h)}y^{NV}=\inf\{y\ge0: P(D_1\le y)\ge b/(b+h)\}yNV=inf{y≥0:P(D1​≤y)≥b/(b+h)}. The manager knows an upper bound yˉ≥yNV\bar y\ge y^{NV}yˉ​≥yNV.

AIM, non-perishable case. Fix γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and a starting target y^1∈[0,yˉ]\hat y_1\in[0,\bar y]y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​]. Put y1=y^1y_1=\hat y_1y1​=y^​1​, x1=0x_1=0x1​=0. In period t≥1t\ge1t≥1 the step is ϵt=γyˉ/(max⁡{b,h}t)\epsilon_t=\gamma\bar y/(\max\{b,h\}\sqrt t)ϵt​=γyˉ​/(max{b,h}t​), the observed slope is Ht=hH_t=hHt​=h if Dt<y^tD_t<\hat y_tDt​<y^​t​ and Ht=−bH_t=-bHt​=−b otherwise, and

y^t+1=max⁡{min⁡{y^t−ϵtHt,yˉ},0},xt+1=[yt−Dt]+,yt+1=max⁡{y^t+1,xt+1}.\hat y_{t+1}=\max\{\min\{\hat y_t-\epsilon_tH_t,\bar y\},0\},\qquad x_{t+1}=[y_t-D_t]^+,\qquad y_{t+1}=\max\{\hat y_{t+1},x_{t+1}\}.y^​t+1​=max{min{y^​t​−ϵt​Ht​,yˉ​},0},xt+1​=[yt​−Dt​]+,yt+1​=max{y^​t+1​,xt+1​}.

The target y^t\hat y_ty^​t​ follows the gradient step. The implemented level yty_tyt​ can exceed it because stock that has already been bought cannot be returned. The excess-cost term is

Λ2(T)=E[1T∑t=1T(Q(yt)−Q(y^t))].\Lambda_2(T)=E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\big(Q(y_t)-Q(\hat y_t)\big)\Big].Λ2​(T)=E[T1​t=1∑T​(Q(yt​)−Q(y^​t​))].

Auxiliary processes. Let m=hγyˉ/max⁡{b,h}m=h\gamma\bar y/\max\{b,h\}m=hγyˉ​/max{b,h}. For a real θ\thetaθ:

  • W1(θ)=0W_1(\theta)=0W1​(θ)=0, Wt+1(θ)=[Wt(θ)+θ−Dt]+W_{t+1}(\theta)=[W_t(\theta)+\theta-D_t]^+Wt+1​(θ)=[Wt​(θ)+θ−Dt​]+ is a queue with constant inflow. Its first busy period has length ∣J1(θ)∣=inf⁡{t>1:Wt(θ)=0}−1|J_1(\theta)|=\inf\{t>1:W_t(\theta)=0\}-1∣J1​(θ)∣=inf{t>1:Wt​(θ)=0}−1.
  • Z1(θ)=0Z_1(\theta)=0Z1​(θ)=0, Zt+1(θ)=[Zt(θ)+θ/t−Dt]+Z_{t+1}(\theta)=[Z_t(\theta)+\theta/\sqrt t-D_t]^+Zt+1​(θ)=[Zt​(θ)+θ/t​−Dt​]+ is a queue with decreasing inflow.
  • K(θ,z)=min⁡{t≥0:z+∑s=1t(θ−Ds)≤0}K(\theta,z)=\min\{t\ge0: z+\sum_{s=1}^t(\theta-D_s)\le0\}K(θ,z)=min{t≥0:z+∑s=1t​(θ−Ds​)≤0} is the hitting time of (−∞,0](-\infty,0](−∞,0] by the random walk started at zzz.

For 0<ρ′<m0<\rho'<m0<ρ′<m, the proof uses T~=⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉\tilde T=\lceil(m/\rho')^2\rceilT~=⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉ and K~=min⁡{t>T~:Zt(m)=0}\tilde K=\min\{t>\tilde T:Z_t(m)=0\}K~=min{t>T~:Zt​(m)=0}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 13)

For every T≥1T\ge1T≥1 and every ρ′\rho'ρ′ with 0<ρ′<min⁡{m,E[D1]}0<\rho'<\min\{m,E[D_1]\}0<ρ′<min{m,E[D1​]},

Λ2(T)≤max⁡{b,h} yˉT{⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22 m2ρ′)]}+2hm E[∣J1(ρ′)∣2]T.\Lambda_2(T)\le\frac{\max\{b,h\}\,\bar y}{T}\Big\{\big\lceil(m/\rho')^2\big\rceil+E\Big[K\Big(\rho',\frac{2\sqrt2\,m^2}{\rho'}\Big)\Big]\Big\}+\frac{2hm\,E\big[|J_1(\rho')|^2\big]}{\sqrt T}.Λ2​(T)≤Tmax{b,h}yˉ​​{⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,ρ′22​m2​)]}+T​2hmE[∣J1​(ρ′)∣2]​.

The statement makes no moment assumption on demand. It is stated with the paper's explicit constants, and both expectations on the right may be infinite.

Milestones

  1. Coupling (proof of Theorem 8, p. 13). For every demand path and every t≥1t\ge1t≥1, yt−y^t≤Zt(m)y_t-\hat y_t\le Z_t(m)yt​−y^​t​≤Zt​(m).
  2. Restart bound (p. 14). For 0<ρ′<m0<\rho'<m0<ρ′<m, E[K~]≤⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22m2/ρ′)]E[\tilde K]\le\lceil(m/\rho')^2\rceil+E[K(\rho',2\sqrt2m^2/\rho')]E[K~]≤⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22​m2/ρ′)].
  3. Claim (14) (p. 14, proved in Appendix E). For 0<ρ′<min⁡{m,E[D1]}0<\rho'<\min\{m,E[D_1]\}0<ρ′<min{m,E[D1​]}, hTE[∑t=K~+1TZt(m)]≤2hm E[∣J1(ρ′)∣2]/T\frac hT E\big[\sum_{t=\tilde K+1}^T Z_t(m)\big]\le 2hm\,E[|J_1(\rho')|^2]/\sqrt TTh​E[∑t=K~+1T​Zt​(m)]≤2hmE[∣J1​(ρ′)∣2]/T​.
  4. Lemma 9, corrected (p. 13). If θ<E[D1]\theta<E[D_1]θ<E[D1​], E[D14]<∞E[D_1^4]<\inftyE[D14​]<∞ and z>0z>0z>0, then E[K(θ,z)]≤1+2zE[D1]−θ+8π2E[(D1−E[D1])4](E[D1]−θ)4E[K(\theta,z)]\le1+\frac{2z}{E[D_1]-\theta}+\frac{8\pi^2E[(D_1-E[D_1])^4]}{(E[D_1]-\theta)^4}E[K(θ,z)]≤1+E[D1​]−θ2z​+(E[D1​]−θ)48π2E[(D1​−E[D1​])4]​.

Significance

The result. The cost of AIM relative to the newsvendor benchmark splits as Λ1(T)+Λ2(T)\Lambda_1(T)+\Lambda_2(T)Λ1​(T)+Λ2​(T). Stochastic subgradient descent controls Λ1(T)\Lambda_1(T)Λ1​(T) for every γ\gammaγ, so Theorem 8 is the remaining step in showing that AIM converges at rate O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​) without any knowledge of a lower bound on mean demand. The first term of the bound is O(1/T)O(1/T)O(1/T) whenever E[K]E[K]E[K] is finite, and Lemma 9 gives that under a finite fourth moment. The second term is O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​) whenever E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2] is finite, and the paper's Proposition 4 gives that under a finite sixth moment. The result therefore removes the one piece of prior information about demand, other than yˉ\bar yyˉ​, that the non-perishable analysis needed.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is complete and short, but it moves between expectations of random indices, pathwise couplings and renewal arguments, and the statements of Theorem 8 and Lemma 9 contain the slips recorded below. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked AIM recursion, a pathwise domination of excess inventory by a queue, and hitting-time and busy-period bounds for random walks with nonnegative i.i.d. decrements.

Difficulty

The argument behind Theorem 2 dominates yt−y^ty_t-\hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ by a queue whose inflow ρ/t\rho/\sqrt tρ/t​ is below the mean demand. For large γ\gammaγ the inflow m/tm/\sqrt tm/t​ exceeds E[D1]E[D_1]E[D1​] in early periods, so the queue Z(m)Z(m)Z(m) is unstable at first and its busy periods are not controlled by a stationary queue. A direct bound on E[∑tZt(m)]E[\sum_t Z_t(m)]E[∑t​Zt​(m)] through busy periods of W(m)W(m)W(m) fails, because W(m)W(m)W(m) may never empty when m≥E[D1]m\ge E[D_1]m≥E[D1​]. The proof therefore separates a random initial stretch, which ends at the first time after T~\tilde TT~ that Z(m)Z(m)Z(m) empties, from the remainder. The two parts are bounded by different processes. The random index K~\tilde KK~ sits inside the sums, so the expectations have to be handled with that dependence.

Formalization scope

  • Demand uses the published definition CappedBaseStock_Model (DemandLaw, the i.i.d. path measure demandPathLaw). Its law has finite and strictly positive mean. The cost QQQ and yNVy^{NV}yNV are the published backorderCost and newsvendorLevel of LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.Backorder. Both are reused, not redefined.
  • The demand path is zero-based: the paper's DtD_tDt​ is d (t-1). AIM is a deterministic recursion on the path, and y^t,yt,xt\hat y_t,y_t,x_ty^​t​,yt​,xt​ depend on D1,…,Dt−1D_1,\dots,D_{t-1}D1​,…,Dt−1​ only. Levels are real numbers, and QQQ is evaluated at nonnegative levels.
  • The conventions are Z1=W1=0Z_1=W_1=0Z1​=W1​=0 and τ0=1\tau_0=1τ0​=1. The paper's own indexing (Z0=0Z_0=0Z0​=0 in (7)) is undefined at t=0t=0t=0, and these are the conventions its proofs use.
  • KKK, ∣J1∣|J_1|∣J1​∣ and K~\tilde KK~ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and E[K]E[K]E[K], E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2], E[K~]E[\tilde K]E[K~] are Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Theorem 8 and Claim (14) are stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. A divergent expectation therefore makes a bound trivially true. It can never make a bound false or vacuous through a junk value 000. Λ2(T)\Lambda_2(T)Λ2​(T) is a real expectation of a bounded integrand.
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases: "for any choice of the parameter γ\gammaγ" means every γ>0\gamma>0γ>0. "Set y1=y^1y_1=\hat y_1y1​=y^​1​ to any value in [0,yˉ][0,\bar y][0,yˉ​]" means the statements hold for every such start. "With probability one" in the coupling is stated pathwise. 0<ρ′0<\rho'0<ρ′ is added (the bound divides by ρ′\rho'ρ′), as are h,b,yˉ>0h,b,\bar y>0h,b,yˉ​>0. In Claim (14) the random lower limit K~\tilde KK~ is read inside the expectation, as in (13) and Appendix E.
  • Lemma 9 is false as printed: for D≡1D\equiv1D≡1, θ=0\theta=0θ=0, z=1/4z=1/4z=1/4 one has K=1K=1K=1 while the printed bound is 1/21/21/2. The mission states it with an additive 111, which is what the printed proof gives once the integers below 2z/(E[D1]−θ)2z/(E[D_1]-\theta)2z/(E[D1​]−θ) are counted correctly.
  • Ruled out: stating the goal about an arbitrary sequence of levels instead of the AIM recursion, taking E[K]E[K]E[K] or E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2] as real Bochner integrals (which are 000 when the expectation diverges and would make the bound false), and dropping the newsvendor bound yNV≤yˉy^{NV}\le\bar yyNV≤yˉ​ from the goal.
  • Welcome contributions: a reusable Lindley-recursion (see Asmussen 2003, Ch. III) and busy-period library (the inspection-paradox bound E∣Ji(θ,s)(θ)∣≤E∣J1(θ)∣2E|J_{i(\theta,s)}(\theta)|\le E|J_1(\theta)|^2E∣Ji(θ,s)​(θ)∣≤E∣J1​(θ)∣2, Lemma 13 of the paper), fourth-moment Markov bounds for sums of i.i.d. centred variables, and shift invariance of the i.i.d. path measure.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh and P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(1):103–123, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 3: With One Markdown or Markup Allowed, Thresholds x_n < z_n Give the Optimal PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of seasonal goods, home builders selling out a development, and airlines and cruise lines selling promotional fares all face the same operational question: inventory is fixed, the selling season is finite, and the price can be changed only rarely. Menu costs, advertising commitments and customer goodwill often restrict a seller to a single price change. The question is then when to change the price, and, if both a lower and a higher price are available, in which direction.

Feng and Gallego (Management Science 41(8), 1995) answered this for Poisson demand. Their §4 treats a single markdown (Theorem 1) and a single markup (Theorem 2). This mission formalizes their §5, the markup-or-markdown problem: the seller starts at a middle price and has one opportunity to move either down or up. The paper shows that the optimal policy is again described by time thresholds that depend only on the remaining stock, now two per stock level. The paper builds on the deterministic and fluid analysis of Gallego and van Ryzin (1994), where arbitrarily many price changes are allowed, and is the starting point of a literature on limited-price-change revenue management surveyed by Bitran and Caldentey (2003).

Setting

There are three prices p1<p<p2p_1 < p < p_2p1​<p<p2​. At price pip_ipi​ demand is a Poisson process of intensity λi\lambda_iλi​, and at ppp of intensity λ\lambdaλ, with

λ1>λ>λ2,r1>r>r2,ri=piλi, r=pλ,\lambda_1 > \lambda > \lambda_2, \qquad r_1 > r > r_2, \qquad r_i = p_i\lambda_i,\ r = p\lambda,λ1​>λ>λ2​,r1​>r>r2​,ri​=pi​λi​, r=pλ,

all prices and intensities positive. Lowering the price raises both the sales rate and the revenue rate. Salvage value is zero. Note that in this section p1p_1p1​ is the lower price; the initial price is ppp.

A seller with nnn units and time-to-go ttt sells at ppp and may switch once, to p1p_1p1​ or to p2p_2p2​. Write N(⋅)N(\cdot)N(⋅) for the demand process at ppp and Ni(⋅)N_i(\cdot)Ni​(⋅) for that at pip_ipi​.

  • Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi)Emin⁡(n,N(s))+piEmin⁡(n,N(s)+Ni(t−s))J^i(n,t;s) = (p - p_i)E\min(n,N(s)) + p_iE\min(n, N(s) + N_i(t-s))Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi​)Emin(n,N(s))+pi​Emin(n,N(s)+Ni​(t−s)) is the expected revenue of switching to pip_ipi​ after sss time units.
  • J(n,t;0)=max⁡{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)}J(n,t;0) = \max\{J^1(n,t;0), J^2(n,t;0)\}J(n,t;0)=max{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)} is the revenue of switching at once to the better alternative, and J(n,t;t)=pEmin⁡(n,N(t))J(n,t;t) = pE\min(n,N(t))J(n,t;t)=pEmin(n,N(t)) the revenue of never switching.
  • The optimal revenue is
J(n,t)=sup⁡τ∈TE[pmin⁡(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],J(n,t) = \sup_{\tau \in \mathcal T} E\bigl[p\min(n,N(\tau)) + J(n - N(\tau), t - \tau; 0)\bigr],J(n,t)=τ∈Tsup​E[pmin(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],

where T\mathcal TT is the set of stopping times of the history of NNN with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.

  • Gi(n,t)=r−ri−pi(λ−λi)P(Ni(t)≥n)G^i(n,t) = r - r_i - p_i(\lambda - \lambda_i)P(N_i(t) \ge n)Gi(n,t)=r−ri​−pi​(λ−λi​)P(Ni​(t)≥n).
  • Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0)\Delta^i(n,t) = J(n,t;t) - J^i(n,t;0)Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0) and Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0)\Delta(n,t) = J^1(n,t;0) - J^2(n,t;0)Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0), with first positive zeros tnit^i_ntni​ and tnt_ntn​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (pp. 1385–1386)

Under the paper's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ for every nnn, there are strictly increasing sequences (xn)(x_n)(xn​), (zn)(z_n)(zn​) with

xn<tn1<tn<tn2<znx_n < t^1_n < t_n < t^2_n < z_nxn​<tn1​<tn​<tn2​<zn​

such that J(n,t)=V(n,t)J(n,t) = V(n,t)J(n,t)=V(n,t), where V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0) + F(n,t)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t) for xn≤t≤znx_n \le t \le z_nxn​≤t≤zn​ and V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0) otherwise. The excess F(n,⋅)F(n,\cdot)F(n,⋅) equals H1(n,⋅)H^1(n,\cdot)H1(n,⋅) on [xn,tn][x_n,t_n][xn​,tn​] and H2(n,⋅)H^2(n,\cdot)H2(n,⋅) on [tn,zn][t_n,z_n][tn​,zn​]. Each HiH^iHi solves

∂H∂t=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],\frac{\partial H}{\partial t} = -\lambda H + L^i(n,t), \qquad L^i(n,t) = G^i(n,t) + \lambda\bigl[V(n-1,t) - J^i(n-1,t;0)\bigr],∂t∂H​=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],

with H1(n,xn)=0H^1(n,x_n) = 0H1(n,xn​)=0 and H2(n,tn)=H1(n,tn)H^2(n,t_n) = H^1(n,t_n)H2(n,tn​)=H1(n,tn​). The thresholds are xn=inf⁡{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0}x_n = \inf\{t \ge 0 : L^1(n,t) = 0\}xn​=inf{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0} and zn=inf⁡{t≥tn:H2(n,t)≤0}z_n = \inf\{t \ge t_n : H^2(n,t) \le 0\}zn​=inf{t≥tn​:H2(n,t)≤0}.

Milestones

  1. (16), p. 1385: ∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t)\partial J^i(n,t;0)/\partial t = r - \lambda[J^i(n,t;0) - J^i(n-1,t;0)] - G^i(n,t)∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t).
  2. Lemma 2, p. 1379, in both cases: the zeros of G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) increase strictly in nnn, and G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) changes sign exactly once.
  3. Lemma 3, p. 1382, in both cases: J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t) - J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0) changes sign exactly once at a strictly increasing sequence tnt_ntn​, and is monotone beyond it.
  4. Lemma 1, p. 1378: a verification criterion identifying J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) as the solution of a system of differential equations and inequalities.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the two-directional problem has the same simple structure as the one-directional ones. With mmm units left and time-to-go uuu, the seller marks down at once when uuu falls below xmx_mxm​, marks up at once when uuu exceeds zmz_mzm​, and otherwise keeps the price. Because the thresholds increase with the stock, the policy reduces to a table of 2n2n2n numbers, which the paper computes for a housing example (Table 5). The theorem also quantifies the value of flexibility: in that example, allowing either direction adds about $1,500 over the markdown-only policy and about $7,000 over the markup-only policy.

Lemma 3 and the verification Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Lemma 3 is a sign-change property of differences of Poisson tail sums, of the kind that drives threshold results in revenue management. Lemma 1 is a sufficient condition for the value of an optimal stopping problem driven by a Poisson process. The paper's results are proved with pen and paper only; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The formalization adds a precise statement of Lemma 1, whose printed hypotheses are insufficient (see the scope section), and an explicit record of which threshold facts Theorem 3 depends on.

Difficulty

The value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum over stopping times of a continuous-time process, and the obvious approach, dynamic programming over the stock, needs the value one stock level down. The thresholds at stock n+1n+1n+1 are defined through V(n,⋅)V(n,\cdot)V(n,⋅), so the structure must be propagated from one stock level to the next, and several properties have to propagate together. One must know that L1(n+1,⋅)L^1(n+1,\cdot)L1(n+1,⋅) again has a single sign change, which requires V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0)V(n,\cdot) - J^1(n,\cdot;0)V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0) to be increasing beyond xnx_nxn​. One must also know that H2(n+1,⋅)H^2(n+1,\cdot)H2(n+1,⋅) is positive up to tn+12t^2_{n+1}tn+12​ and eventually negative, so that zn+1z_{n+1}zn+1​ is finite, and that zn<zn+1z_n < z_{n+1}zn​<zn+1​. These facts concern three different price pairs at once: (p,p1)(p,p_1)(p,p1​), (p,p2)(p,p_2)(p,p2​) and (p1,p2)(p_1,p_2)(p1​,p2​). A direct comparison of VVV with the two one-directional value functions fails, because the optimal direction itself depends on the stock and the time-to-go. The verification step needs a pathwise fundamental theorem of calculus for the Poisson-driven process, which is where the regularity hypothesis on VVV matters.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demand at ppp is the counting process of i.i.d. exponential interarrival times from the published definition QueueingFundamentals_Foundations_ArrivalProcess. The rate enters through the hypothesis IsExpInterarrivals P lam T, and Ni(t−s)N_i(t-s)Ni​(t−s) enters only through its law: the sum N(s)+Ni(t−s)N(s) + N_i(t-s)N(s)+Ni​(t−s) is written through its Poisson(λs+λi(t−s))(\lambda s + \lambda_i(t-s))(λs+λi​(t−s)) law. T\mathcal TT is the class of real-valued stopping times τ\tauτ of the σ-algebras generated by the counts N(u)N(u)N(u), 0≤u≤s0 \le u \le s0≤u≤s, with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.
  • Conventions. Time is time-to-go, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0; ODEs are imposed at every t>0t > 0t>0 through HasDerivAt. Threshold sequences are indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Every infimum is a real sInf paired with the nonemptiness of its set. FFF, H1H^1H1, H2H^2H2, VVV and the thresholds are existentially quantified and tied together by the theorem's equations, so the existential determines the paper's objects. The page's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ is a hypothesis of the goal, as on the page.
  • Added hypotheses. Prices and intensities are positive, the paper's standing convention. Lemma 1 as printed is false. It is stated with the boundary condition V(n,0)=J(n,0;0)V(n,0) = J(n,0;0)V(n,0)=J(n,0;0), the zero-stock condition V(0,t)=0V(0,t) = 0V(0,t)=0, the obstacle condition V≥J(⋅;0)V \ge J(\cdot;0)V≥J(⋅;0), and local Lipschitz continuity of VVV in place of "continuous and almost everywhere differentiable". The page's proof uses all four. Lemma 2's printed "bounded" is corrected to "bounded away from zero", since yn→∞y_n \to \inftyyn​→∞.
  • No trivialization. No statement assumes the optimality identity, the verification conditions, the derivative identity (16), or any sign-change fact as a hypothesis. A goal that defined VVV and assumed J=VJ = VJ=V, or that left the thresholds unrelated to L1L^1L1 and H2H^2H2, would not be Theorem 3.
  • Infrastructure needed. Poisson tail calculus (differentiation of Emin⁡(n,N(t))E\min(n, N(t))Emin(n,N(t)) in ttt), variation-diminishing properties of the kernel e−λ(t−u)e^{-\lambda(t-u)}e−λ(t−u), linear first-order ODEs, and a martingale decomposition for Poisson counting processes evaluated at bounded stopping times. Contributions of any of these, or of proofs of the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8):1371–1391, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9477-8
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Vol. 1, Stanford University Press, 1968.
  • G. Bitran and R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–229, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.3.203.16031
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 2: Markup Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Exceeds an Increasing Threshold z_nResearch Paper

Why a promotional fare needs a switching rule

An airline may offer a low promotional fare while seats remain available, then raise the fare as departure approaches. The choice is dynamic: a sale changes both the number of seats left and the benefit of waiting. The same decision appears for hotel rooms and theater seats. Feng and Gallego study a policy with two fixed prices and at most one price change, while allowing the switching time to depend on actual sales rather than a calendar date chosen in advance. Their 1995 paper proves that this adaptive problem has an inventory-dependent threshold rule. This mission isolates the markup case, in which the second price is higher than the first.

The two-price restriction has a practical role. A seller may know the fare classes it can offer while still needing to decide when to close the promotional class. The result identifies a sequence of time thresholds that can be computed for the chosen price pair. It is therefore a structural claim about an optimal policy, not a choice of numerical prices or a claim that two prices optimize over every possible price menu.

Demand, inventory, and admissible decisions

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 items and t≥0t\ge0t≥0 units of time-to-go. At price pip_ipi​, sales requests follow a Poisson counting process NiN_iNi​ with rate λi\lambda_iλi​. Each request sells one item while stock remains. The paper assumes that demand falls as price rises and that the lower price has the higher revenue rate. Thus the markup case has

0<p1<p2,0<λ2<λ1,p2λ2<p1λ1.0<p_1<p_2,\qquad 0<\lambda_2<\lambda_1,\qquad p_2\lambda_2<p_1\lambda_1.0<p1​<p2​,0<λ2​<λ1​,p2​λ2​<p1​λ1​.

The salvage value at the end of the horizon is zero. A fixed switch at time s∈[0,t]s\in[0,t]s∈[0,t] charges p1p_1p1​ first and p2p_2p2​ afterwards. Its expected revenue, denoted J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s), is

J(n,t;s)=(p1−p2)∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)≥j}+p2∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)+N2(t−s)≥j}.J(n,t;s)=(p_1-p_2)\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)\ge j\} +p_2\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)+N_2(t-s)\ge j\}.J(n,t;s)=(p1​−p2​)j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)≥j}+p2​j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)+N2​(t−s)≥j}.

The two counts in the last term are independent, so their sum has Poisson mean λ1s+λ2(t−s)\lambda_1s+\lambda_2(t-s)λ1​s+λ2​(t−s). This is the expression in §3 of the paper. In particular, J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0) is the revenue from increasing the price immediately.

An admissible switching time τ\tauτ uses only the history of sales at p1p_1p1​; it lies between zero and ttt and cannot wait past stock exhaustion. The optimal value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum of expected revenue over these stopping times. The stopping decision may react to sales before the change, but it cannot anticipate future requests. This distinction matters because a deterministic switch time generally has less information than an adaptive one.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2 on pp. 1382–1383. Define the switching function

G(n,t)=p1λ1−p2λ2−p2(λ1−λ2)Pr⁡{N2(t)≥n},yn=inf⁡{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.G(n,t)=p_1\lambda_1-p_2\lambda_2 -p_2(\lambda_1-\lambda_2)\Pr\{N_2(t)\ge n\}, \qquad y_n=\inf\{u\ge0:G(n,u)=0\}.G(n,t)=p1​λ1​−p2​λ2​−p2​(λ1​−λ2​)Pr{N2​(t)≥n},yn​=inf{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.

There are thresholds xn,znx_n,z_nxn​,zn​ with yn≤xn<zny_n\le x_n<z_nyn​≤xn​<zn​, and (zn)n≥1(z_n)_{n\ge1}(zn​)n≥1​ is increasing. A continuation premium FFF gives the value

J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),t<zn,J(n,t;0),t≥zn.J(n,t)=\begin{cases} J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),&t<z_n,\\ J(n,t;0),&t\ge z_n. \end{cases}J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),J(n,t;0),​t<zn​,t≥zn​.​

For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t) below znz_nzn​ and is zero at or above it; F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0. The function HHH satisfies H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0 and the differential equation ∂tH(n,t)=−λ1H(n,t)+L(n,t)\partial_tH(n,t)=-\lambda_1H(n,t)+L(n,t)∂t​H(n,t)=−λ1​H(n,t)+L(n,t), where L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t). The remaining thresholds are the first nonnegative zero of L(n,⋅)L(n,\cdot)L(n,⋅) and the first positive zero of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅):

xn=inf⁡{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn=inf⁡{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.x_n=\inf\{u\ge0:L(n,u)=0\},\qquad z_n=\inf\{u>0:H(n,u)=0\}.xn​=inf{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn​=inf{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.

The milestones reproduce equation (17), the markup half of Lemma 2, and Lemma 1. Together they identify the Poisson derivative identity, the sign change of GGG, and the verification criterion used to relate a candidate value to optimal stopping. The paper proves the mathematical result; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of these formal statements.

What the result supplies

The threshold sequence tells a seller when increasing the price immediately is optimal, conditional on the stock still available. The value formula also gives the benefit of continuing at the promotional price when time-to-go lies below the threshold. The statement preserves the paper's weaker word “increasing” for znz_nzn​: it asserts monotonicity and does not require strict monotonicity of either sequence. The full theorem includes the recursive equations for FFF and HHH, so a proof of a threshold-shaped region alone would leave part of the source result unformalized.

Formalization would add a reusable optimal-stopping model built from a Poisson arrival process, a fixed-switch revenue function, and a verification lemma. The arrival process already has a published definition; the switching model and the theorem statements here are new drafts. The theorem is established in the 1995 article, while its Lean proof remains to be supplied.

Where the difficulty lies

The immediate-switch comparison G(n,t)G(n,t)G(n,t) has a single sign change, but the optimal decision also depends on revenue already earned and on the value of unsold stock after each possible sale. For n>1n>1n>1, the relevant forcing term is L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t), so the sign of GGG alone does not locate the optimal switching threshold. A direct fixed-time comparison likewise does not establish optimality among stopping times that react to observed sales. These are the main obstacles the formal proof must address.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses natural-number stock, nonnegative real time, positive real prices and rates, and an imported counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. A rate is attached to each price. The history of the first process defines the stopping-time class; the second process enters through its Poisson law after a switch. The supremum ranges over admissible stopping times, and the payoff is bounded and measurable under the stated process law. The definition writes sales before switching as min⁡(n,N1(τ))\min(n,N_1(\tau))min(n,N1​(τ)), equal almost surely to N1(τ)N_1(\tau)N1​(τ) for admissible times. The probability-measure assumption is explicit, though the exponential interarrival law entails it.

Lean assigns a default value to an empty real infimum. The theorem explicitly asserts that each defining zero set for yny_nyn​, xnx_nxn​, and znz_nzn​ is nonempty; it also keeps u>0u>0u>0 in the definition of znz_nzn​, since H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0. Continuity of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅) at zero connects its boundary value to its differential equation. Lemma 1 includes its missing initial, zero-stock, obstacle, and local-Lipschitz assumptions, all required by its printed proof. The paper's word “bounded” in Lemma 2 is retained in the milestone quotation but replaced by the positive lower bound it uses; yny_nyn​ is unbounded as stock grows. These choices are recorded for review in the moderation notes.

The goal derives optimality from the demand and price assumptions. It does not assume the verification conditions, the sign change, or the revenue identity as premises. Contributions to the Poisson tail calculus, stopping-time measurability and boundedness, threshold zero sets, and verification argument are within scope and can be reused in related finite-inventory pricing models.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.
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