A Regression-Based Monte Carlo Method to Solve Backward Stochastic Differential Equations II: Simulation Error of the Empirical Regression Scheme in the Number of PathsResearch Paper
Motivation
Backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) describe the price and the hedge of a contingent claim in models with nonlinear pricing rules (differential interest rates, funding costs, reflected or constrained claims), and give probabilistic representations of semilinear parabolic PDEs (El Karoui, Peng and Quenez, 1997). Their numerical solution in moderate dimension is done by simulation: a backward recursion over a time grid in which each conditional expectation is replaced by a least-squares regression on simulated paths, the same device as the regression method for Bermudan options of Longstaff and Schwartz (2001).
Gobet, Lemor and Warin (2005) split the error of such a scheme into three parts: time discretization (Theorem 1), projection on finite function bases (Theorem 2), and the replacement of projections by empirical regressions on simulated paths (Theorem 3). This mission formalizes the third part, which the authors describe as the major contribution of the paper. Its point is that the error from the simulations is controlled nonasymptotically, step by step, without blowing up as the time step shrinks, even though every regression of the backward recursion reuses the same simulated paths.
Setting
A model consists of a horizon , a drift , a diffusion satisfying the Lipschitz condition (H1), and a driver satisfying (H2): . For , , , the Euler scheme is , where the increments are independent of the past. A chain extends , and is the terminal value.
At each time , function bases (for ) and , (for the components of ) are fixed, orthonormal in the sense . The projection–Picard scheme (Definition 1) computes coefficients by Picard iterations of an least-squares problem, and sets , .
The empirical scheme (4) replaces the expectation by an average over independent simulations of the path: minimizes
The outputs are truncated: with and a smooth profile equal to the identity on , with . The regression vector is , and the good event (27) asks that the empirical matrices and be close to the identity for all .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3
For , orthonormal bases with , such that the bounds of Proposition 2 hold, and small enough, for ,
where collects second moments of , and , written out in full in the goal statement. The constant and the threshold on depend only on the model and on .
Milestones
- Proposition 2: the a priori bounds , that fix the truncation levels.
- (28)–(29): the empirical least-squares solution and its contraction inequality .
- Lemma 1: on the empirical Picard iterations contract at rate to a unique fixed point, with error after steps.
- (32): the pathwise bound on .
- (34): the expectation formula .
Significance
Theorem 3 is nonasymptotic: together with Theorems 1 and 2 it lets one compare the three error sources and choose , the bases and jointly for a target accuracy. The rate shows how many paths a finer time grid requires, and the term shows that Picard iterations suffice. The term involving isolates the event on which the empirical regression matrices are badly conditioned, which the truncation keeps under control.
The result is proved in the paper; nothing in this mission is open mathematically. No machine-checked proof of any part of it is known. A formal proof would check a long chain of estimates whose constants the paper tracks only as a generic , and would settle the two misprints in the printed statement (see below). The definitions layer (Euler scheme, regression schemes, empirical regression matrices) is reusable for other regression Monte Carlo schemes for BSDEs and for optimal stopping.
Difficulty
The obvious approach is to treat each regression as an independent statistical estimation problem and apply a variance bound per time step. This fails because all regressions of the backward recursion use the same paths: the response at time is itself a function of the simulations, so the regression at is not a regression of a fixed variable on independent samples. Moreover, the empirical matrix may be singular, and on that event the empirical coefficients are unbounded unless truncated. A naive per-step bound also produces a factor at each of the steps, which explodes; the proof must keep the accumulated constants of order one.
Formalization scope
- All objects are defined in the namespace
RegMCBSDE.Simulation. Continuous time is not used: the increments are any family that is -measurable, independent of and -distributed for some filtration. That covers the Brownian case. (H3), a condition on the terminal functional of the continuous path, is dropped. So is the Markov representation of , which no statement uses. - Expectations of squared quantities are taken in , on both sides of every inequality.
- Euclidean norms are written as sums of squares. for symmetric is written as for all .
- The schemes are defined as predicates (any minimizer of each least-squares problem), never through a matrix inverse. The empirical coefficients are required to be measurable functions of the simulations, and any such minimizer is allowed, as the paper says the choice is arbitrary.
- The reference path at which the fitted coefficients are evaluated is assumed independent of the simulations.
- Picard iterations are imposed for every .
- "For small enough" is formalized as . Every constant and every is chosen before , , , , , the bases, and the probability space. A formalization in which is chosen after the scheme data would make every inequality with a positive right-hand side trivially true, and is ruled out.
- " large enough" in Theorem 3 is the hypothesis that the bounds of Proposition 2 hold for .
- Proposition 2 is stated for small enough. The printed statement omits this condition, which its proof needs through the uniform bound (19).
- In (32) and Lemma 1, , which the paper leaves undefined, is read through the terminal response .
- Corrections to Theorem 3 (both from the paper's proof, p. 21):
- The printed summand contains the undefined . It is replaced by .
- The printed factor next to becomes .
Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, in particular (28)–(29) (finite-dimensional linear algebra) and (34) (independence and orthonormality), and a construction showing that measurable minimizers of (4) exist.
Selected references
- E. Gobet, J.-P. Lemor, X. Warin, A regression-based Monte Carlo method to solve backward stochastic differential equations, Ann. Appl. Probab. 15(3), 2172–2202, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000412, preprint https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0508491v1
- N. El Karoui, S. Peng, M. C. Quenez, Backward stochastic differential equations in finance, Math. Finance 7(1), 1–71, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00022
- F. A. Longstaff, E. S. Schwartz, Valuing American options by simulation: a simple least-squares approach, Rev. Financ. Stud. 14(1), 113–147, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/14.1.113
- J. Zhang, A numerical scheme for BSDEs, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14(1), 459–488, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1075828058
- B. Bouchard, N. Touzi, Discrete-time approximation and Monte-Carlo simulation of backward stochastic differential equations, Stochastic Process. Appl. 111(2), 175–206, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2004.01.001