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Optimal Transport

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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization and Variation Regularization III: With Probability 1 − e^(−t), E_Pn[(ρ − d(z, D_f))₊] ≤ Cρ² + 2ρ·E[Rademacher] + ρ√(t/2n) for Every fResearch Paper

Motivation

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces the empirical risk EPn[f]\mathbb E_{P_n}[f]EPn​​[f] of a loss fff by its worst case over all distributions within Wasserstein distance ρ\rhoρ of the empirical law PnP_nPn​. Gao, Chen and Kleywegt (arXiv:1712.06050; Operations Research, 2024, doi:10.1287/opre.2022.2383) show that, for small radii, this worst-case risk is the empirical risk plus ρ\rhoρ times a variation of the loss (a norm of its gradient or local slope), up to a remainder. This links DRO to gradient-norm regularization, as used in adversarial training and in data-driven newsvendor and pricing models.

For smooth losses the remainder is of order ρ2\rho^2ρ2. Many losses used in practice are only piecewise smooth: hinge, ReLU networks, newsvendor costs, θz∧1\theta z \wedge 1θz∧1. Near the set Df\mathcal D_fDf​ where the pieces meet, the first-order expansion fails, and the paper's Theorem 1(I)–(II) carries an extra boundary term M EPn[(ρ−d(z,Df))+]M\,\mathbb E_{P_n}[(\rho - d(z,\mathcal D_f))_+]MEPn​​[(ρ−d(z,Df​))+​]. Theorem 1(III) shows that this term is small with high probability, uniformly over the loss class, provided the data distribution does not concentrate near the non-smooth points. This mission formalizes that probabilistic bound.

Setting

Let (Z,d)(\mathcal Z, d)(Z,d) be a metric space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra, PtrueP_{\rm true}Ptrue​ a probability measure on Z\mathcal ZZ, and z1,…,znz_1, \dots, z_nz1​,…,zn​ an i.i.d. sample from PtrueP_{\rm true}Ptrue​, with empirical law Pn=1n∑iδziP_n = \frac1n\sum_i \delta_{z_i}Pn​=n1​∑i​δzi​​. The sampling law is the product P⊗=Ptrue⊗nP_\otimes = P_{\rm true}^{\otimes n}P⊗​=Ptrue⊗n​ on Zn\mathcal Z^nZn, and E⊗\mathbb E_\otimesE⊗​ is its expectation. The formal statements also assume the metric space is second countable.

Let F\mathcal FF be a set of losses f:Z→Rf : \mathcal Z \to \mathbb Rf:Z→R, and for each fff let Df⊆Z\mathcal D_f \subseteq \mathcal ZDf​⊆Z be its non-smooth set: for a piecewise smooth fff with pieces Zf,1,…,Zf,Kf\mathcal Z_{f,1}, \dots, \mathcal Z_{f,K_f}Zf,1​,…,Zf,Kf​​, the union of the pairwise intersections of their closures (Assumption 1). The paper assumes Df\mathcal D_fDf​ is PtrueP_{\rm true}Ptrue​-null. The distance to a set is d(z,D)=inf⁡z~∈Dd(z,z~)d(z, D) = \inf_{\tilde z\in D} d(z,\tilde z)d(z,D)=infz~∈D​d(z,z~), with d(z,∅)=+∞d(z,\varnothing) = +\inftyd(z,∅)=+∞.

The objects of the mission are:

  • the boundary gap (ρ−d(z,Df))+(\rho - d(z, \mathcal D_f))_+(ρ−d(z,Df​))+​ and the near indicator 1{d(z,Df)<ρ}\mathbf 1\{d(z,\mathcal D_f) < \rho\}1{d(z,Df​)<ρ};
  • the indicator class Iρ={z↦1{d(z,Df)<ρ}:f∈F, Df≠∅}\mathcal I_\rho = \{z\mapsto \mathbf 1\{d(z,\mathcal D_f)<\rho\} : f\in\mathcal F,\ \mathcal D_f\neq\varnothing\}Iρ​={z↦1{d(z,Df​)<ρ}:f∈F, Df​=∅};
  • the empirical Rademacher complexity Rn(H)=Eσ[sup⁡h∈H1n∑iσih(zi)]\mathfrak R_n(\mathcal H) = \mathbb E_\sigma\bigl[\sup_{h\in\mathcal H}\frac1n\sum_i\sigma_i h(z_i)\bigr]Rn​(H)=Eσ​[suph∈H​n1​∑i​σi​h(zi​)] of a class H\mathcal HH, with i.i.d. uniform signs σi\sigma_iσi​, and the Rademacher complexity E⊗[Rn(H)]\mathbb E_\otimes[\mathfrak R_n(\mathcal H)]E⊗​[Rn​(H)];
  • Assumption 3 (bounded density):
lim sup⁡δ↓0 sup⁡f∈F: Df≠∅Ptrue{z:0<d(z,Df)<δ}δ<∞.\limsup_{\delta\downarrow 0}\ \sup_{f\in\mathcal F:\,\mathcal D_f\ne\varnothing}\frac{P_{\rm true}\{z : 0 < d(z,\mathcal D_f) < \delta\}}{\delta} < \infty.δ↓0limsup​ f∈F:Df​=∅sup​δPtrue​{z:0<d(z,Df​)<δ}​<∞.

In Lean the boundary gap is the shared WassVarReg.PInf.boundaryGap; nearIndicator, indicatorClass, empRademacher, rademacher and Assumption3 are in WassVarReg.Boundary. The sample law is the published MinimaxWass.DataDep.sampleLaw.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1(III), first display (p. 8)

Under Assumption 3 there exist ρˉ,C>0\bar\rho, C > 0ρˉ​,C>0 such that for all n≥1n\ge1n≥1, t>0t>0t>0 and 0≤ρ<ρˉ0\le\rho<\bar\rho0≤ρ<ρˉ​, with probability at least 1−e−t1-e^{-t}1−e−t, for every f∈Ff\in\mathcal Ff∈F,

EPn[(ρ−d(z,Df))+]≤Cρ2+2ρ E⊗[Rn(Iρ)]+ρt2n.\mathbb E_{P_n}\bigl[(\rho - d(z,\mathcal D_f))_+\bigr] \le C\rho^2 + 2\rho\,\mathbb E_\otimes[\mathfrak R_n(\mathcal I_\rho)] + \rho\sqrt{\frac{t}{2n}}.EPn​​[(ρ−d(z,Df​))+​]≤Cρ2+2ρE⊗​[Rn​(Iρ​)]+ρ2nt​​.

The constants CCC and ρˉ\bar\rhoρˉ​ are left unspecified; they depend only on Assumption 3.

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.5 (p. ec4): for a class H\mathcal HH of measurable functions with values in [0,M][0,M][0,M], with probability at least 1−e−t1-e^{-t}1−e−t, EPn[h]≤EPtrue[h]+2 E⊗[Rn(H)]+Mt/(2n)\mathbb E_{P_n}[h] \le \mathbb E_{P_{\rm true}}[h] + 2\,\mathbb E_\otimes[\mathfrak R_n(\mathcal H)] + M\sqrt{t/(2n)}EPn​​[h]≤EPtrue​​[h]+2E⊗​[Rn​(H)]+Mt/(2n)​ for all h∈Hh\in\mathcal Hh∈H.
  2. Assumption 3 bounds the true mass (proof of Lemma EC.11, p. ec11): EPtrue[1{d(z,Df)<ρ}]≤Cρ\mathbb E_{P_{\rm true}}[\mathbf 1\{d(z,\mathcal D_f)<\rho\}] \le C\rhoEPtrue​​[1{d(z,Df​)<ρ}]≤Cρ for 0≤ρ<ρˉ0\le\rho<\bar\rho0≤ρ<ρˉ​, uniformly in fff.
  3. Lemma EC.11 (p. ec11): with probability at least 1−e−t1-e^{-t}1−e−t, for every fff, EPn[1{d(z,Df)<ρ}]≤Cρ+2 E⊗[Rn(Iρ)]+t/(2n)\mathbb E_{P_n}[\mathbf 1\{d(z,\mathcal D_f)<\rho\}] \le C\rho + 2\,\mathbb E_\otimes[\mathfrak R_n(\mathcal I_\rho)] + \sqrt{t/(2n)}EPn​​[1{d(z,Df​)<ρ}]≤Cρ+2E⊗​[Rn​(Iρ​)]+t/(2n)​.
  4. Gap versus mass (p. ec11): EPn[(ρ−d(z,Df))+]≤ρ EPn[1{d(z,Df)<ρ}]\mathbb E_{P_n}[(\rho-d(z,\mathcal D_f))_+] \le \rho\,\mathbb E_{P_n}[\mathbf 1\{d(z,\mathcal D_f)<\rho\}]EPn​​[(ρ−d(z,Df​))+​]≤ρEPn​​[1{d(z,Df​)<ρ}].

Significance

The result. With ρn=ρ0/n\rho_n = \rho_0/\sqrt nρn​=ρ0​/n​ and a class Iρ\mathcal I_\rhoIρ​ of bounded complexity, the right side of the goal is Op(1/n)O_p(1/n)Op​(1/n). Combined with Theorem 1(I)–(II), it gives the paper's conclusion that ppp-Wasserstein DRO with p∈(1,∞]p\in(1,\infty]p∈(1,∞] is asymptotically equivalent to empirical variation regularization, min⁡f{EPn[f]+ρnVPn,q(f)}+Op(1/n)\min_f\{\mathbb E_{P_n}[f] + \rho_n\mathcal V_{P_n,q}(f)\} + O_p(1/n)minf​{EPn​​[f]+ρn​VPn​,q​(f)}+Op​(1/n), for non-smooth losses, uniformly over the class. Without it, the boundary term is only bounded by MρM\rhoMρ, and the expansion has no better accuracy than first order. Assumption 3 is the condition under which the non-smooth set does not matter statistically.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. Its proof composes a uniform deviation bound (McDiarmid's inequality plus symmetrization) with a bounded-density estimate. The mission produces a general Rademacher deviation bound for bounded classes on an arbitrary metric space with a measurability guard, reusable by any statistical-learning mission, and fixes the printed constant of Lemma EC.5 (M2t/nM\sqrt{2t/n}M2t/n​ on the page, Mt/(2n)M\sqrt{t/(2n)}Mt/(2n)​ from its proof).

Difficulty

The deterministic parts are short. The difficulty is in Lemma EC.5. McDiarmid's inequality must be applied to the uniform deviation over an arbitrary, possibly uncountable, class. Symmetrization must then be carried out with Bochner integrals over Zn×Zn\mathcal Z^n\times\mathcal Z^nZn×Zn and a finite sign space. Neither tool is in Mathlib in this form. A tempting shortcut, bounding each fixed hhh by Hoeffding's inequality and taking a union bound, fails: the class is infinite, and the bound must hold simultaneously for all fff inside a single event. A second point is Assumption 3: it controls only the shell 0<d(z,Df)<δ0 < d(z,\mathcal D_f) < \delta0<d(z,Df​)<δ, so the mass of {d=0}\{d = 0\}{d=0} has to come from the null closure of Df\mathcal D_fDf​.

Formalization scope

  • Space and sample. Z\mathcal ZZ is a metric space with [MeasurableSpace Z] [BorelSpace Z] [SecondCountableTopology Z] in the goal-level statements. Second countability is an added technical hypothesis used throughout this paper's mission series. A sample is ω : Fin n → Z with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and its law is Measure.pi. Empirical means are 1n∑i:Fin n\frac1n\sum_{i : \mathrm{Fin}\,n}n1​∑i:Finn​.
  • Distance to a set. Metric.infEDist, which is +∞+\infty+∞ on ∅\varnothing∅. A loss with Df=∅\mathcal D_f=\varnothingDf​=∅ thus has boundary gap 000 and is excluded from Iρ\mathcal I_\rhoIρ​, as on the page. The real-valued Metric.infDist (which is 000 on ∅\varnothing∅) would give such a loss gap ρ\rhoρ and is not used.
  • The non-smooth sets are an arbitrary family D : (Z → ℝ) → Set Z. The goal-level statements assume each Df\mathcal D_fDf​ is closed and PtrueP_{\rm true}Ptrue​-null, the standing consequence of its construction in Assumption 1. The details of the piecewise smooth loss model are not needed for this probability estimate.
  • Probabilities are written as P⊗{ω:¬ ∀f∈F,… }≤e−tP_\otimes\{\omega : \neg\,\forall f\in\mathcal F, \dots\}\le e^{-t}P⊗​{ω:¬∀f∈F,…}≤e−t, with the quantifier over F\mathcal FF inside the event (an outer measure for uncountable F\mathcal FF).
  • Rademacher complexity. The sign expectation is an average over {±1}n\{\pm1\}^n{±1}n. Suprema are real suprema of classes with values in [0,M][0,M][0,M]; an empty class gives 000. E⊗\mathbb E_\otimesE⊗​ is a Bochner integral.
  • Measurability guard (added): the uniform deviation, the empirical Rademacher complexity and the double-sample deviation of the class are measurable. This holds, for instance, for countable F\mathcal FF, and the paper leaves it implicit.
  • Quantifier order. ρˉ\bar\rhoρˉ​ and CCC are chosen before nnn and ttt, which is stronger than the page's order. The radius satisfies ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0.
  • Not stated. The second display of Theorem 1(III) and the "Moreover" part of Lemma EC.11, which use Dudley's entropy integral: their proof bounds the empirical Rademacher complexity, while Lemma EC.5 needs its expectation.
  • Trivialization ruled out. The Rademacher term is that of the specific class Iρ\mathcal I_\rhoIρ​ built from the sets Df\mathcal D_fDf​. It is not a free constant, and no hypothesis assumes the conclusion of Lemma EC.5.

Contributions welcome: a general McDiarmid inequality for product measures, a symmetrization lemma for measurable classes, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • R. Gao, X. Chen, A. J. Kleywegt, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization and Variation Regularization, Operations Research, 2024. arXiv:1712.06050, doi:10.1287/opre.2022.2383
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Theorem 26.5. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • C. McDiarmid, On the method of bounded differences, Surveys in Combinatorics, LMS Lecture Note Series 141, 1989. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107359949.008
  • M. J. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Ch. 5. doi:10.1017/9781108627771
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Differential GeometryFunctional AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bakry–Émery Curvature-Dimension Condition and Riemannian Ricci Curvature Bounds 4: A Riemannian Energy Measure Space Satisfying BE(K,∞) Is an RCD(K,∞) SpaceResearch Paper

Why relate heat flow and curvature?

Heat flow gives an analytic way to describe how functions spread on a space. Optimal transport gives a metric way to describe how probability measures move on the same space. On a smooth Riemannian manifold, a lower Ricci curvature bound constrains both motions. The problem addressed by Ambrosio, Gigli and Savaré is to identify the corresponding relationship when the underlying space need not be a manifold. A Dirichlet form can specify a heat flow even when there are no smooth coordinates, while a Wasserstein distance can measure transport between probability measures. Theorem 4.17 connects these two descriptions for Riemannian energy measure spaces.

The paper proves the implication from the Bakry–Émery condition BE(K,∞)BE(K,\infty)BE(K,∞) to the Riemannian curvature-dimension condition RCD(K,∞)RCD(K,\infty)RCD(K,∞). Its printed theorem is an equivalence; the paper cites the reverse implication from earlier work in the proof on p. 58. This mission targets the implication established here, with the source's exact assumptions.

Setting

Let XXX be a complete, separable metric space with a Borel measure mmm. A Dirichlet form E\mathcal EE assigns a nonnegative energy to square-integrable functions, is quadratic and lower semicontinuous, and decreases under normal contractions. Its associated heat flow PtP_tPt​ evolves a function over time. The associated carré du champ Γ(f)\Gamma(f)Γ(f) measures the energy density of a function. Functions with energy density at most one define an intrinsic distance

dE(x,y)=sup⁡{∣ψ(y)−ψ(x)∣:ψ is continuous and Γ(ψ)≤1 m-a.e.}.d_{\mathcal E}(x,y)=\sup\{|\psi(y)-\psi(x)|:\psi\text{ is continuous and }\Gamma(\psi)\le1\ m\text{-a.e.}\}.dE​(x,y)=sup{∣ψ(y)−ψ(x)∣:ψ is continuous and Γ(ψ)≤1 m-a.e.}.

For the Riemannian energy measure space in this mission, this intrinsic distance is the metric of XXX. The structure also requires the paper's upper regularity and continuous-representative properties. The growth condition (MD.exp)(MD.exp)(MD.exp) controls the measure of large balls. In the BE(K,∞)BE(K,\infty)BE(K,∞) condition, a weak second-derivative inequality for the heat flow has curvature parameter KKK and no finite-dimensional correction term. These assumptions are stated at the start of §4 and govern the §4 milestones even when an individual theorem does not repeat them. See Definitions 3.6 and 3.16 and the opening of §4.

Write P2(X)\mathcal P_2(X)P2​(X) for the probability measures with finite second moment, W2W_2W2​ for their quadratic Wasserstein distance, and Ent⁡m(ρ)\operatorname{Ent}_m(\rho)Entm​(ρ) for entropy relative to mmm. The heat flow has a dual action HtH_tHt​ on measures. The target RCD(K,∞)RCD(K,\infty)RCD(K,∞) asks for a curve HtρH_t\rhoHt​ρ from every ρ∈P2(X)\rho\in\mathcal P_2(X)ρ∈P2​(X) that satisfies the following evolution variational inequality against every ν∈P2(X)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(X)ν∈P2​(X) of finite entropy, at every t>0t>0t>0:

d+dtW22(Htρ,ν)2+K2W22(Htρ,ν)+Ent⁡m(Htρ)≤Ent⁡m(ν).\frac{d^+}{dt}\frac{W_2^2(H_t\rho,\nu)}2 +\frac K2W_2^2(H_t\rho,\nu) +\operatorname{Ent}_m(H_t\rho) \le\operatorname{Ent}_m(\nu).dtd+​2W22​(Ht​ρ,ν)​+2K​W22​(Ht​ρ,ν)+Entm​(Ht​ρ)≤Entm​(ν).

The definition also includes full support, local finiteness, the exponential growth condition, and the length-space property. See Definition 3.1.

Formalization targets

The goal is the forward implication of Theorem 4.17:

Riemannian energy measure space+(MD.exp)+BE(K,∞)⟹RCD(K,∞).\text{Riemannian energy measure space}+(MD.exp)+BE(K,\infty) \quad\Longrightarrow\quad RCD(K,\infty).Riemannian energy measure space+(MD.exp)+BE(K,∞)⟹RCD(K,∞).

Three milestones supply central results from the paper. The final assertions of Theorem 3.17 give the dual measure flow and its absolute continuity after positive time. Corollary 3.18 identifies BE(K,∞)BE(K,\infty)BE(K,∞) with the W2W_2W2​ contraction W2((Ptf)m,(Ptg)m)≤e−KtW2(fm,gm)W_2((P_t f)m,(P_t g)m)\le e^{-Kt}W_2(fm,gm)W2​((Pt​f)m,(Pt​g)m)≤e−KtW2​(fm,gm) on probability densities. A companion item, Theorem 4.8, gives an entropy bound for HtμH_t\muHt​μ when μ\muμ has finite second moment:

Ent⁡m(Htμ)≤r2+∫Xd2(x,x0) dμ(x)2I2K(t)−log⁡m(Br(x0)),r,t>0.\operatorname{Ent}_m(H_t\mu) \le\frac{r^2+\int_X d^2(x,x_0)\,d\mu(x)}{2I_{2K}(t)} -\log m(B_r(x_0)),\qquad r,t>0.Entm​(Ht​μ)≤2I2K​(t)r2+∫X​d2(x,x0​)dμ(x)​−logm(Br​(x0​)),r,t>0.

The third milestone, Theorem 4.16, bounds the distance and entropy at the heat-evolved endpoint of a regular curve ρs\rho_sρs​:

W22(ρ0,Htρ1)+2tEnt⁡m(Htρ1)≤RK(t)2∫01∣ρ˙s∣2 ds+2tEnt⁡m(ρ0),RK(t)=t/IK(t).W_2^2(\rho_0,H_t\rho_1)+2t\operatorname{Ent}_m(H_t\rho_1) \le R_K(t)^2\int_0^1|\dot\rho_s|^2\,ds +2t\operatorname{Ent}_m(\rho_0),\qquad R_K(t)=t/I_K(t).W22​(ρ0​,Ht​ρ1​)+2tEntm​(Ht​ρ1​)≤RK​(t)2∫01​∣ρ˙​s​∣2ds+2tEntm​(ρ0​),RK​(t)=t/IK​(t).

The milestone list follows the source labels and constants in §4.

What the result provides

The conclusion turns an analytic curvature bound on a heat semigroup into a transport statement about entropy on probability measures. It therefore identifies a concrete set of Dirichlet-form hypotheses under which the heat evolution has the metric behavior demanded by RCD(K,∞)RCD(K,\infty)RCD(K,∞). The result applies in the paper's metric measure setting, where the space may lack a smooth tensor calculus. The RCDRCDRCD conclusion carries convergence from every initial measure in P2(X)\mathcal P_2(X)P2​(X) and the inequality for all finite-entropy comparison measures.

The mathematical implication is proved in the cited paper. The proposed Lean statements are open proof targets: their declarations compile with placeholders, and no machine-checked proof of this implication is asserted here. A complete development would connect Dirichlet-form calculus, probability measures, entropy, and Wasserstein geometry in reusable interfaces. The dual-flow and regular-curve definitions are especially useful beyond this theorem.

Main difficulty

The heat flow is initially specified on square-integrable functions, whereas the target is an inequality for probability measures, including measures without an initial density. A bound on Γ(Ptf)\Gamma(P_t f)Γ(Pt​f) by itself controls functions almost everywhere; it does not immediately produce the pointwise dual flow or the right derivative of W22W_2^2W22​ required by Definition 3.1. The action estimate also begins with regular curves, while the target quantifies over every initial measure in P2(X)\mathcal P_2(X)P2​(X). These changes of domain and regularity are the central mathematical obstacles; simply renaming the heat semigroup as a measure flow leaves the target unjustified.

Formalization scope

Lean uses real-valued function representatives for L2(X,m)L^2(X,m)L2(X,m), with almost-everywhere congruence in the Dirichlet form and heat flow. Measures use the Borel sigma algebra. The source uses its mmm-completion; the formalization treats quantities invariant under mmm-almost-everywhere equality, and this convention is explicit in the definition layer. The metric is complete and second countable, and its equality with dEd_{\mathcal E}dE​ is part of the energy-measure-space predicate. A sigma-finiteness instance is carried where entropy or measure operations need it; it follows from the source's measure-growth setting. The dual flow and the L1L^1L1 extension are bound by predicates that specify their action on densities. The mollifier for a regular curve is bound by the conditions of (2.17), while the action is the infimum of squared admissible speeds, which equals the integral of the squared metric derivative.

Wasserstein costs use R≥0∪{∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{\infty\}R≥0​∪{∞}, and entropy uses extended real values. Theorem 4.8 restricts r,tr,tr,t to positive numbers, so the ball mass and I2K(t)I_{2K}(t)I2K​(t) used in its formula have the intended domain. Theorem 4.16 also uses t>0t>0t>0, making RK(t)=t/IK(t)R_K(t)=t/I_K(t)RK​(t)=t/IK​(t) meaningful, including at K=0K=0K=0. The goal requires an EVI flow beginning at each ρ∈P2(X)\rho\in\mathcal P_2(X)ρ∈P2​(X) and the inequality at every positive time; allowing a vacuous flow or checking only almost every time would not express Definition 3.1. Contributions may establish the milestone statements and the companion Theorem 4.8, develop the omitted intermediate estimates from §4, or prove the goal from the source's full argument.

Selected references

  • L. Ambrosio, N. Gigli and G. Savaré, Bakry–Émery curvature-dimension condition and Riemannian Ricci curvature bounds, Annals of Probability 43(1), 2015, 339–404. arXiv:1209.5786v4.
7 thms1 active userReviewed
Functional AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bakry–Émery Curvature-Dimension Condition and Riemannian Ricci Curvature Bounds 3: Lipschitz and Pointwise Gradient Bounds on the Heat Semigroup Make Its Dual Semigroup a W₂ ContractionResearch Paper

Motivation

A lower bound on Ricci curvature can be expressed in two ways that make sense far beyond smooth manifolds. The Eulerian way bounds the gradient of the heat semigroup: Bakry and Émery's Γ2\Gamma_2Γ2​-calculus gives ∣∇Ptf∣2≤e−2Kt Pt∣∇f∣2|\nabla \mathsf P_t f|^2 \le e^{-2Kt}\,\mathsf P_t|\nabla f|^2∣∇Pt​f∣2≤e−2KtPt​∣∇f∣2. The Lagrangian way bounds how heat flow moves probability measures in optimal transport distance: W2(Htμ,Htν)≤e−KtW2(μ,ν)W_2(\mathsf H_t\mu,\mathsf H_t\nu)\le e^{-Kt}W_2(\mu,\nu)W2​(Ht​μ,Ht​ν)≤e−KtW2​(μ,ν). On Riemannian manifolds the two are equivalent (von Renesse–Sturm 2005). Kuwada (2010) showed that the equivalence is a general duality between a pointwise gradient bound with a constant C(t)C(t)C(t) and W2W_2W2​-contraction with the same constant, valid on length metric measure spaces.

Ambrosio, Gigli and Savaré (arXiv:1209.5786v4, Ann. Probab. 2015) needed this duality in a setting with no doubling or Poincaré inequality, where the semigroup comes from an abstract Dirichlet form and is only defined almost everywhere. Their §3.2 builds the dual semigroup on probability measures and proves the contraction (Theorem 3.5). Combined with their Theorem 3.17 it gives Corollary 3.18, the step that links the Bakry–Émery condition BE(K,∞)\mathrm{BE}(K,\infty)BE(K,∞) to W2W_2W2​-contraction and, later in the paper, to RCD(K,∞)\mathrm{RCD}(K,\infty)RCD(K,∞).

Setting

Let (X,d)(X,\mathsf d)(X,d) be a complete separable metric space with a Borel measure mmm of full support such that m(Br(x))<∞m(B_r(x))<\inftym(Br​(x))<∞ for every ball (condition (MD)). The space is a length space if d(x0,x1)\mathsf d(x_0,x_1)d(x0​,x1​) is the infimum of the lengths of curves joining x0x_0x0​ to x1x_1x1​ (3.2).

A Dirichlet form E\mathcal EE on L2(X,m)L^2(X,m)L2(X,m) is a lower semicontinuous quadratic form with dense domain that does not increase under normal contractions; it is strongly local if E(f,g)=0\mathcal E(f,g)=0E(f,g)=0 whenever f+af+af+a and ggg have disjoint supports. Its heat flow (Pt)t≥0(\mathsf P_t)_{t\ge0}(Pt​)t≥0​ solves ddtPtf=ΔEPtf\frac{d}{dt}\mathsf P_tf=\Delta_{\mathcal E}\mathsf P_tfdtd​Pt​f=ΔE​Pt​f in L2L^2L2. It is mass preserving if ∫Ptf dm=∫f dm\int\mathsf P_tf\,dm=\int f\,dm∫Pt​fdm=∫fdm (2.12).

Lipb(X)\mathrm{Lip}_b(X)Lipb​(X) denotes bounded Lipschitz functions, ∣Df∣(x)=lim sup⁡y→x∣f(y)−f(x)∣/d(y,x)|Df|(x)=\limsup_{y\to x}|f(y)-f(x)|/\mathsf d(y,x)∣Df∣(x)=limsupy→x​∣f(y)−f(x)∣/d(y,x) the slope, and P(X)\mathscr P(X)P(X) the Borel probability measures. The Wasserstein cost is

W22(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫d2(x,y) dγ(x,y): γ a coupling of μ,ν}∈[0,∞].W_2^2(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int\mathsf d^2(x,y)\,d\boldsymbol\gamma(x,y):\ \boldsymbol\gamma\text{ a coupling of }\mu,\nu\Big\}\in[0,\infty].W22​(μ,ν)=inf{∫d2(x,y)dγ(x,y): γ a coupling of μ,ν}∈[0,∞].

Two hypotheses on the semigroup, with C:[0,∞)→[0,∞)C:[0,\infty)\to[0,\infty)C:[0,∞)→[0,∞) bounded on every [0,T][0,T][0,T]:

(3.15)Ptf∈Lipb(X),  Lip(Ptf)≤C(t) Lip(f),(3.16)∣DP~tf∣2(x)≤C2(t) P~t∣Df∣2(x),\text{(3.15)}\quad \mathsf P_tf\in\mathrm{Lip}_b(X),\ \ \mathrm{Lip}(\mathsf P_tf)\le C(t)\,\mathrm{Lip}(f),\qquad \text{(3.16)}\quad |D\tilde{\mathsf P}_tf|^2(x)\le C^2(t)\,\tilde{\mathsf P}_t|Df|^2(x),(3.15)Pt​f∈Lipb​(X),  Lip(Pt​f)≤C(t)Lip(f),(3.16)∣DP~t​f∣2(x)≤C2(t)P~t​∣Df∣2(x),

for f∈Lipb(X)∩L2(X,m)f\in\mathrm{Lip}_b(X)\cap L^2(X,m)f∈Lipb​(X)∩L2(X,m). Under (3.15) the map fm↦(Ptf)mfm\mapsto(\mathsf P_tf)mfm↦(Pt​f)m extends uniquely to a weakly continuous dual semigroup Ht:P(X)→P(X)\mathsf H_t:\mathscr P(X)\to\mathscr P(X)Ht​:P(X)→P(X), and P~tf(x)=∫f dHtδx\tilde{\mathsf P}_tf(x)=\int f\,d\mathsf H_t\delta_xP~t​f(x)=∫fdHt​δx​ is the pointwise version of Pt\mathsf P_tPt​ (Proposition 3.2).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.5 (forward direction)

Under (MD), the length property, (2.12), (3.15) and (3.16), for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and μ,ν∈P(X)\mu,\nu\in\mathscr P(X)μ,ν∈P(X),

W2(Htμ,Htν)≤C(t) W2(μ,ν).W_2(\mathsf H_t\mu,\mathsf H_t\nu)\le C(t)\,W_2(\mu,\nu).W2​(Ht​μ,Ht​ν)≤C(t)W2​(μ,ν).

The constant C(t)C(t)C(t) is left free; the goal is the duality itself, not a particular curvature bound.

Milestones

  • Proposition 3.2 (i): existence and uniqueness of Ht\mathsf H_tHt​, with W(β)(Htμ,Htν)≤(C(t)∨1)W(β)(μ,ν)W_{(\beta)}(\mathsf H_t\mu,\mathsf H_t\nu)\le(C(t)\vee1)W_{(\beta)}(\mu,\nu)W(β)​(Ht​μ,Ht​ν)≤(C(t)∨1)W(β)​(μ,ν) and W1(Htμ,Htν)≤C(t)W1(μ,ν)W_1(\mathsf H_t\mu,\mathsf H_t\nu)\le C(t)W_1(\mu,\nu)W1​(Ht​μ,Ht​ν)≤C(t)W1​(μ,ν).
  • Proposition 3.2 (ii)–(iv): P~t\tilde{\mathsf P}_tP~t​ preserves Cb(X)C_b(X)Cb​(X), agrees mmm-a.e. with Pt\mathsf P_tPt​, satisfies the duality ∫f dHtμ=∫P~tf dμ\int f\,d\mathsf H_t\mu=\int\tilde{\mathsf P}_tf\,d\mu∫fdHt​μ=∫P~t​fdμ, and is continuous at t=0t=0t=0.
  • Lemma 3.3: a Fatou-type upper bound lim sup⁡n∫fn dμn≤∫f dμ\limsup_n\int f_n\,d\mu_n\le\int f\,d\mulimsupn​∫fn​dμn​≤∫fdμ for weakly converging μn\mu_nμn​.
  • Lemma 3.4: for f∈Lipb(X)f\in\mathrm{Lip}_b(X)f∈Lipb​(X) nonnegative with bounded support and the Hopf–Lax map Q1f(x)=inf⁡yf(y)+12d2(y,x)Q_1f(x)=\inf_y f(y)+\tfrac12\mathsf d^2(y,x)Q1​f(x)=infy​f(y)+21​d2(y,x),
P~tQ1f(x)−P~tf(y)≤12C2(t) d2(x,y).\tilde{\mathsf P}_tQ_1f(x)-\tilde{\mathsf P}_tf(y)\le\tfrac12C^2(t)\,\mathsf d^2(x,y).P~t​Q1​f(x)−P~t​f(y)≤21​C2(t)d2(x,y).
  • (3.26): the contraction for Dirac masses, W22(Htδx,Htδy)≤C2(t) d2(x,y)W_2^2(\mathsf H_t\delta_x,\mathsf H_t\delta_y)\le C^2(t)\,\mathsf d^2(x,y)W22​(Ht​δx​,Ht​δy​)≤C2(t)d2(x,y).

Significance

The theorem turns a pointwise, infinitesimal estimate on functions into a global estimate on measures. In the paper, with C(t)=e−KtC(t)=e^{-Kt}C(t)=e−Kt it gives the W2W_2W2​-contraction of the heat flow under BE(K,∞)\mathrm{BE}(K,\infty)BE(K,∞) (Corollary 3.18). That contraction is an ingredient of the identification of the heat flow with the EVIK\mathrm{EVI}_KEVIK​ gradient flow of the entropy (Theorem 4.17). The argument of §3.2 avoids doubling and local Poincaré assumptions on the metric measure space (p. 26), which is what makes it usable for the general Energy measure spaces of the paper.

The result is proved in the literature: in Kuwada's paper, and in the form posed here in §3.2 of the source. As far as a search of the Prove2Me catalogue shows, none of it is formalized: there is no Wasserstein distance on a general metric space, no dual semigroup of a Dirichlet form, and no Hopf–Lax semigroup on metric spaces. The mission asks for formal proofs of the known argument; the dual semigroup, Lemma 3.3 and the Hopf–Lax estimates are reusable on their own.

Difficulty

The semigroup acts on L2L^2L2 classes, while (3.16) and the contraction are statements at every point; the bridge is the pointwise version P~t\tilde{\mathsf P}_tP~t​, which exists only through the dual semigroup and its weak continuity. The direct approach, applying the gradient bound along a geodesic between xxx and yyy, fails because W2W_2W2​ is not a supremum over Lipschitz functions of a linear quantity. The route goes through the quadratic Kantorovich duality and the Hopf–Lax semigroup on a metric space, neither of which is available in Mathlib, and through limits of integrals against varying measures Htδy\mathsf H_t\delta_{y}Ht​δy​. Passing from Dirac masses to arbitrary μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν needs a measurable selection of optimal plans.

Formalization scope

  • Elements of L2(X,m)L^2(X,m)L2(X,m) are functions; every predicate is invariant under mmm-a.e. equality. The σ-algebra is Borel rather than its mmm-completion.
  • The heat flow P\mathsf PP and the dual semigroup H\mathsf HH are binders pinned by predicates (IsHeatSemigroup, IsDualSemigroup), not constructions. IsDualSemigroup requires Ht(fm)=(Ptf)m\mathsf H_t(fm)=(\mathsf P_tf)mHt​(fm)=(Pt​f)m for probability densities f∈L1∩L2f\in L^1\cap L^2f∈L1∩L2 and weak continuity on P(X)\mathscr P(X)P(X), which determines Ht\mathsf H_tHt​ on P(X)\mathscr P(X)P(X). Choosing H\mathsf HH as anything else (e.g. the identity) does not satisfy the predicate, so the goal is not trivialized that way. Dropping the length property would change the statement.
  • (3.15) is stated as "every Lipschitz constant KKK of fff gives the Lipschitz constant C(t)KC(t)KC(t)K of a version of Ptf\mathsf P_tfPt​f". (3.16) and the conclusions are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; W2W_2W2​ appears squared.
  • Mass preservation is stated on L1∩L2L^1\cap L^2L1∩L2, where the heat flow is pinned.
  • The paper states Theorem 3.5 as an equivalence; only the direction proved there is posed, the converse being cited from Kuwada.
  • The paper prints Lemma 3.4 with an absolute value, which fails at x=yx=yx=y; the one-sided inequality its proof gives, and (3.26) uses, is the stated form.
  • Lemma 3.3 assumes fff integrable; this only excludes the case ∫f dμ=+∞\int f\,d\mu=+\infty∫fdμ=+∞, where the claim is trivial.

Contributions welcome: the quadratic Kantorovich duality on Polish spaces, Hopf–Lax calculus on length spaces, measurable selection of optimal plans, and the portmanteau-type Lemma 3.3.

Selected references

  • L. Ambrosio, N. Gigli, G. Savaré, Bakry–Émery curvature-dimension condition and Riemannian Ricci curvature bounds, Ann. Probab. 43(1), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1209.5786
  • K. Kuwada, Duality on gradient estimates and Wasserstein controls, J. Funct. Anal. 258, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfa.2010.01.010
  • M.-K. von Renesse, K.-T. Sturm, Transport inequalities, gradient estimates, entropy, and Ricci curvature, Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 58, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.20060
  • L. Ambrosio, N. Gigli, G. Savaré, Metric measure spaces with Riemannian Ricci curvature bounded from below, Duke Math. J. 163, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1109.0222
  • D. Bakry, M. Émery, Diffusions hypercontractives, Séminaire de Probabilités XIX, LNM 1123, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0075847
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Differential GeometryFunctional AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bakry–Émery Curvature-Dimension Condition and Riemannian Ricci Curvature Bounds 6: BE(K,N) on Riemannian Energy Measure Spaces Is Stable Under Sturm–Gromov–Hausdorff ConvergenceResearch Paper

Motivation

Curvature bounds on a smooth Riemannian manifold control diffusion and the behavior of probability measures. Metric measure spaces extend these questions to limits that need not be smooth. A useful curvature condition must continue to hold when a sequence of spaces converges. Ambrosio, Gigli, and Savaré prove that their analytic Bakry–Émery curvature-dimension condition has this stability property for Riemannian energy measure spaces under Sturm–Gromov–Hausdorff convergence Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Theorem 5.8. The result connects a condition stated through heat flow and Dirichlet forms with convergence stated through distances between probability measures.

The article's §5.2 first defines the convergence of spaces and of functions living in different L2L^2L2 spaces, then states the stability theorem. This order matters: the measure changes with the space, so ordinary convergence of functions on one fixed measured space cannot express the claim Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Definitions 5.4 and 5.6.

Setting

A metric measure space (X,d,m)(X,d,m)(X,d,m) consists of a complete separable metric space (X,d)(X,d)(X,d) and a measure mmm. The class P2(X)\mathcal P_2(X)P2​(X) contains probability measures with finite second moment. The squared Wasserstein distance W22(μ,ν)W_2^2(\mu,\nu)W22​(μ,ν) is the infimum of the mean squared transport cost d(x,y)2d(x,y)^2d(x,y)2 over couplings of μ\muμ and ν\nuν.

A sequence (Xn,dn,mn)(X_n,d_n,m_n)(Xn​,dn​,mn​) Sturm–Gromov–Hausdorff converges to (X∞,d∞,m∞)(X_\infty,d_\infty,m_\infty)(X∞​,d∞​,m∞​) when there is a complete separable ambient metric space ZZZ and distance-preserving embeddings ιn:Xn→Z\iota_n:X_n\to Zιn​:Xn​→Z, including ι∞\iota_\inftyι∞​, such that W2((ιn)#mn,(ι∞)#m∞)→0W_2((\iota_n)_\#m_n,(\iota_\infty)_\#m_\infty)\to0W2​((ιn​)#​mn​,(ι∞​)#​m∞​)→0. The embeddings need not be onto. This definition compares measures on different spaces after placing them in one ambient space; it does not assume that the original spaces coincide Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Definition 5.4.

An energy measure space has a strongly local Dirichlet form E\mathcal EE, its associated heat flow PtP_tPt​, a carré du champ Γ\GammaΓ, and an intrinsic distance dEd_{\mathcal E}dE​ agreeing with ddd. The Cheeger energy Ch⁡m\operatorname{Ch}_mChm​ is the relaxed integral of one half the squared local slope. A Riemannian energy measure space also has the upper-regularity and continuous-representative properties of Definition 3.16. The paper writes E=2Ch⁡m\mathcal E=2\operatorname{Ch}_mE=2Chm​ in this situation Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Definitions 3.6 and 3.16 and Theorem 3.14.

The Bakry–Émery condition BE(K,N)\mathrm{BE}(K,N)BE(K,N) bounds a second-order expression involving the heat flow, the carré du champ, curvature parameter KKK, and dimension parameter NNN. The formalization uses the paper's weak distributional form (2.33), writing ν=1/N≥0\nu=1/N\ge0ν=1/N≥0; ν=0\nu=0ν=0 represents N=∞N=\inftyN=∞. This is the same KKK and NNN for every source space and for the limit Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Definition 2.4 and (2.33).

Formalization targets

Supporting convergence results

Remark 5.5 asserts that the Cheeger energy is invariant under an isometric embedding. Lemma 5.7 supplies two criteria (squared norms, or entropies of bounded densities) for convergence of scalar functions across changing measures and shows that continuous maps of linear growth preserve this convergence. Lemma 5.9 says that, in the RCD setting, both heat-flow outputs and their generators converge. These are the mission's formal milestones Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, pp. 63–66.

Stability goal

For Riemannian energy measure spaces (Xn,dn,mn,En)(X_n,d_n,m_n,\mathcal E_n)(Xn​,dn​,mn​,En​) with mn∈P2(Xn)m_n\in\mathcal P_2(X_n)mn​∈P2​(Xn​) and BE(K,N)\mathrm{BE}(K,N)BE(K,N), Theorem 5.8 asks for

(Xn,dn,mn)→SGH(X∞,d∞,m∞)⟹(X∞,d∞,m∞,2Ch⁡m∞) is Riemannian and satisfies BE(K,N).(X_n,d_n,m_n)\xrightarrow{\mathrm{SGH}}(X_\infty,d_\infty,m_\infty) \quad\Longrightarrow\quad (X_\infty,d_\infty,m_\infty,2\operatorname{Ch}_{m_\infty}) \text{ is Riemannian and satisfies }\mathrm{BE}(K,N).(Xn​,dn​,mn​)SGH​(X∞​,d∞​,m∞​)⟹(X∞​,d∞​,m∞​,2Chm∞​​) is Riemannian and satisfies BE(K,N).

The goal includes the assertion that the limit energy is a Dirichlet form; quadraticity is part of the conclusion. It covers finite NNN and N=∞N=\inftyN=∞ with the same statement Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Theorem 5.8.

Significance

The theorem permits analytic curvature-dimension bounds to survive convergence even when the carrier spaces, measures, and L2L^2L2 spaces vary. Without a stability statement, a bound verified separately on approximating spaces would give no such bound for their metric measure limit. The theorem also ensures that the limit Cheeger energy retains the quadratic structure required for the Riemannian theory Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Theorem 5.8 and its proof.

The result is proved in the cited paper. The remaining work here is a machine-checked development of its definitions and proof, including the convergence of heat flows and generator terms across changing measures. The statements in this proposal are proof targets; they are not presented as already machine-checked. The definitions of SGH convergence and graph-law convergence can also support other stability questions for metric measure spaces.

Difficulty

The difficulty is that each PtnP_t^nPtn​ acts on a different L2(Xn,mn)L^2(X_n,m_n)L2(Xn​,mn​), while BE(K,N)\mathrm{BE}(K,N)BE(K,N) is an inequality involving the semigroup, its generator, and integrals against mnm_nmn​. Convergence of the underlying measures alone does not imply convergence of those functions or of their squared terms. In particular, pointwise convergence on a common carrier is not even a statement available before choosing embeddings and representatives. The paper's separate notion of function convergence addresses this gap Ambrosio–Gigli–Savaré, Definitions 5.4 and 5.6 and Lemma 5.9.

Formalization scope

Lean keeps the spaces indexed by nnn: Xn n, m n, E n, and P n. The goal uses SGH convergence as an existential ambient realization, rather than assuming the paper's common-space reduction (5.10). The source heat flows and the truncation profile SSS are named by their defining properties; they are the paper's determined objects. The limit heat flow is not assumed to exist: the BE(K,N)\mathrm{BE}(K,N)BE(K,N) conclusion is stated for every family satisfying the heat-flow characterization of 2Ch⁡m∞2\operatorname{Ch}_{m_\infty}2Chm∞​​. Functions represent L2L^2L2 classes, and the common Setting layer records almost-everywhere invariance. The measurable spaces are Borel; the paper's completed measurable structures are represented through measurable versions and almost-everywhere relations.

The formal goal assumes that m∞m_\inftym∞​ has full support on X∞X_\inftyX∞​. Definition 3.6 requires this, while §5.2 explicitly warns that the ambient SGH limit may fail to be fully supported. The full-support condition makes the theorem refer to the intended limit carrier. The goal does not assume that the limit already is a Riemannian energy measure space or satisfies BE(K,N)\mathrm{BE}(K,N)BE(K,N).

Function convergence uses graph laws on X×RkX\times\mathbb R^kX×Rk. The chosen product metric is Mathlib's max metric; any fixed finite product metric yields the same W2W_2W2​ convergence in this setting. The squared Wasserstein distance is extended nonnegative, so a missing finite coupling does not turn into a false real value. The limit energy is defined as 2Ch⁡m∞2\operatorname{Ch}_{m_\infty}2Chm∞​​, with no free energy parameter. Measurable representatives are explicit when forming pushforwards. Lemma 5.9 is stated on a common, fully supported RCD carrier; this narrows its ambient application and is recorded for review. Contributions to the Cheeger-energy invariance, changing-measure function convergence, heat-flow stability, and final BE passage are all within scope.

Selected references

  • Luigi Ambrosio, Nicola Gigli, Giuseppe Savaré, Bakry–Émery curvature-dimension condition and Riemannian Ricci curvature bounds, Annals of Probability 43(1), 2015, 339–404. arXiv:1209.5786v4, DOI:10.1214/14-AOP907.
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Machine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Optimal Transport XII: The Entropic Barycenter Scalings Are (e^{f_s/ε}, e^{g_s/ε}) for the Solutions of a Dual Program with Σ_s λ_s f_s = 0Textbook

Why barycenters of histograms matter

A barycenter summarizes several objects by minimizing a weighted sum of distances to them. For probability histograms, ordinary coordinatewise averages depend strongly on how the bins are labeled. Optimal transport instead lets mass move between bins and charges for those moves through a cost matrix. The resulting Wasserstein barycenter can reflect the geometry of the bins: nearby bins can exchange mass at a lower cost than distant ones. Peyré and Cuturi use this construction in their treatment of variational transport problems, including shape interpolation and the representation of a measure as a barycenter of other measures. The finite histogram problem in this mission is the entropically regularized version developed in §9.2 of their textbook.

The computational question is how to connect three ways of describing the same solution: a histogram that is the barycenter, transport matrices coupling it to the inputs, and vectors of dual potentials. Proposition 9.1 on p. 530 identifies the dual potentials behind the scaling factors of the optimal transport matrices. This is the second proposition numbered 9.1 in the chapter; the one on p. 519 concerns derivatives with respect to histograms.

Finite histogram setting

There are SSS input histograms. Source sss has nsn_sns​ bins and a probability vector bsb_sbs​, while the barycenter has nnn bins. The real matrix Cs∈Rn×nsC_s\in\mathbb R^{n\times n_s}Cs​∈Rn×ns​ gives the cost of transporting a unit of mass from barycenter bin iii to input bin jjj. A weight vector λ∈ΣS\lambda\in\Sigma_Sλ∈ΣS​ has nonnegative entries summing to one; Σk\Sigma_kΣk​ denotes the probability simplex on kkk bins. The unregularized barycenter problem (9.10) minimizes ∑sλsLCs(a,bs)\sum_s\lambda_s L_{C_s}(a,b_s)∑s​λs​LCs​​(a,bs​) over a∈Σna\in\Sigma_na∈Σn​, where LCsL_{C_s}LCs​​ is the minimum transport cost with marginals aaa and bsb_sbs​.

For a regularization parameter ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, the entropic transport cost LCsε(a,bs)L^\varepsilon_{C_s}(a,b_s)LCs​ε​(a,bs​) minimizes ⟨Cs,Ps⟩−εH(Ps)\langle C_s,P_s\rangle-\varepsilon H(P_s)⟨Cs​,Ps​⟩−εH(Ps​) over nonnegative coupling matrices PsP_sPs​ with row marginal aaa and column marginal bsb_sbs​. Here ⟨Cs,Ps⟩=∑i,jCs,ijPs,ij\langle C_s,P_s\rangle=\sum_{i,j}C_{s,ij}P_{s,ij}⟨Cs​,Ps​⟩=∑i,j​Cs,ij​Ps,ij​ and H(Ps)=∑i,j(−Ps,ijlog⁡Ps,ij+Ps,ij)H(P_s)=\sum_{i,j}(-P_{s,ij}\log P_{s,ij}+P_{s,ij})H(Ps​)=∑i,j​(−Ps,ij​logPs,ij​+Ps,ij​), with 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0. The Gibbs kernel is Ks,ij=e−Cs,ij/εK_{s,ij}=e^{-C_{s,ij}/\varepsilon}Ks,ij​=e−Cs,ij​/ε.

The book also writes the regularized barycenter as a weighted KL projection. Its variables are the matrices (Ps)s(P_s)_s(Ps​)s​; each matrix has column marginal bsb_sbs​, and every matrix has the same row marginal. That shared row marginal is aaa, so the optimization can be expressed without carrying aaa as a separate variable. The generalized matrix divergence is KL(Ps∣Ks)=∑i,j[Ps,ijlog⁡(Ps,ij/Ks,ij)−Ps,ij+Ks,ij]\mathrm{KL}(P_s\mid K_s)=\sum_{i,j}[P_{s,ij}\log(P_{s,ij}/K_{s,ij})-P_{s,ij}+K_{s,ij}]KL(Ps​∣Ks​)=∑i,j​[Ps,ij​log(Ps,ij​/Ks,ij​)−Ps,ij​+Ks,ij​], using the continuous value at Ps,ij=0P_{s,ij}=0Ps,ij​=0. See (9.15)–(9.17) in Peyré and Cuturi.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 9.1 on p. 530. The dual variables are row potentials fs∈Rnf_s\in\mathbb R^nfs​∈Rn and column potentials gs∈Rnsg_s\in\mathbb R^{n_s}gs​∈Rns​. They maximize

∑sλs[⟨gs,bs⟩−ε∑i,jefs,i/εKs,ijegs,j/ε]subject to∑sλsfs=0.\sum_s\lambda_s\left[\langle g_s,b_s\rangle-\varepsilon\sum_{i,j}e^{f_{s,i}/\varepsilon}K_{s,ij}e^{g_{s,j}/\varepsilon}\right] \quad\text{subject to}\quad \sum_s\lambda_s f_s=0.s∑​λs​[⟨gs​,bs​⟩−εi,j∑​efs,i​/εKs,ij​egs,j​/ε]subject tos∑​λs​fs​=0.

The theorem asserts that the primal and dual optima are attained, that every optimal primal family and every optimal dual family satisfy

Ps,ij=efs,i/εKs,ijegs,j/ε,P_{s,ij}=e^{f_{s,i}/\varepsilon}K_{s,ij}e^{g_{s,j}/\varepsilon},Ps,ij​=efs,i​/εKs,ij​egs,j​/ε,

and that the dual maximum is the minimum value of the entropic barycenter objective (9.15). The milestone targets are the scalar and matrix versions of the KL conjugate (9.22), followed by the closed form maximizer of one gsg_sgs​ block, corresponding to the update (9.18). These statements retain the source's finite matrix setting and are listed in the order in which their concepts enter the dual formulation.

What the result supplies

The scaling formula turns the optimal couplings into a product of a row factor, a fixed positive kernel, and a column factor. It identifies those factors with exponentials of dual potentials and gives a constrained maximization problem whose value is the entropic barycenter cost. Thus a solver can reason about the couplings, the barycenter marginal, or the potentials while referring to one theorem that connects them. The book uses the same variables to describe the iterative scaling updates on pp. 529–531 and later illustrates barycenters of shapes and surface measures; those applications depend on interpreting the matrix factors correctly. Peyré and Cuturi give the mathematical proposition and its argument. A complete Lean proof of the proposition and its supporting KL identities is the work this mission calls for; the statements here are draft targets rather than machine-checked solutions.

Where the difficulty lies

The potential program is a constrained optimization problem, while the transport problem constrains nonnegative matrices by two kinds of marginals. Equality of their optimum values must preserve the normalization constants in generalized KL. The exponential form alone does not establish that a proposed matrix has the required marginals, nor does a feasible matrix alone identify dual potentials. In addition, the assertion concerns every optimizer: a choice of zero source weight would leave that source's coupling unconstrained by the objective, and a zero target entry would put a logarithmic column update on the boundary. These are substantive edge cases of the formulas, not merely notation.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin S, Fin n, and Fin (n_s) for the finite index sets; these are zero based versions of the book's one based indices. Histograms and potentials are real vectors, costs and couplings are real matrices, and the Gibbs kernel is defined entrywise. The theorem requires S,n,ns>0S,n,n_s>0S,n,ns​>0, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, strictly positive weights λs\lambda_sλs​ that sum to one, and strictly positive input histograms bsb_sbs​ that each sum to one. The strict positivity of weights and input entries is an explicit restriction beyond (9.15)–(9.21), needed for a statement about every optimizer and finite logarithmic potentials. Entropy uses 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0 on nonnegative couplings. The shared row marginal is constructed by the constraints on the PsP_sPs​; it is not a free histogram unrelated to them.

The definition layer includes finite matrix pairing, entropy, generalized KL, the Gibbs kernel, feasibility, and primal and dual objective functions. The KL conjugate identities and the block optimizer are separate theorem targets so they can be reused in other entropic transport developments. The main theorem asserts primal and dual attainment as well as their relationship; it does not assume strong duality or an optimal scaling as an input. The page has slips in the dimensions of the marginal equations and a missing subscript on KKK in (9.17); the Lean statements use the dimensions specified by Ps∈Rn×nsP_s\in\mathbb R^{n\times n_s}Ps​∈Rn×ns​. The optional cost-gradient Proposition 9.2 on pp. 519–520 and the fsf_sfs​ block update (9.19)–(9.20) lie outside this proposal.

Selected references

  • Gabriel Peyré and Marco Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6):355–607, 2019. DOI: 10.1561/2200000073.
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Computational Optimal Transport IX: The Entropic Cost L^ε_C(a, b) Equals max ⟨f, a⟩ + ⟨g, b⟩ − ε⟨e^{f/ε}, K e^{g/ε}⟩, with Optimal Scalings (e^{f/ε}, e^{g/ε})Textbook

Motivation

Optimal transport compares two distributions by finding the least expensive way to move mass between them. For finite histograms, the resulting linear program is precise but its optimal coupling can be sparse. In applications where the coupling represents traffic, matching, or a differentiable loss, a sparse plan may be undesirable or expensive to compute repeatedly. Peyré and Cuturi describe how adding an entropy term selects a diffuse coupling and leads to matrix scaling algorithms that can be used on large finite problems (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, Chapter 4).

The entropic dual gives a second view of the same regularized problem. Its variables are real vectors attached to the two marginal constraints. Unlike the ordinary Kantorovich dual, the objective has no explicit feasibility constraints and is smooth. This permits calculations in the log domain, which the book introduces because direct scaling with exponentials can suffer from numerical overflow or underflow when the regularization parameter is small relative to the costs (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, §4.4). This mission targets the exact relationship between the regularized minimum, the smooth dual maximum, and the scaling factors.

Setting

Fix positive integers n,mn,mn,m. A histogram a∈Σna\in\Sigma_na∈Σn​ is a vector with nonnegative entries summing to one; b∈Σmb\in\Sigma_mb∈Σm​ is defined similarly. Strict positivity is required for the attained dual maximum and log-domain updates; the primal scaling and Kantorovich-feasibility statements also cover zero-entry histograms. A coupling P∈U(a,b)P\in U(a,b)P∈U(a,b) is an n×mn\times mn×m matrix with nonnegative entries, row sums aaa, and column sums bbb. A real matrix CCC assigns cost CijC_{ij}Cij​ to each transfer from row iii to column jjj, and ⟨C,P⟩=∑i,jCijPij\langle C,P\rangle=\sum_{i,j}C_{ij}P_{ij}⟨C,P⟩=∑i,j​Cij​Pij​ is its transport cost.

The book uses the entropy H(P)=−∑i,jPij(log⁡Pij−1)H(P)=-\sum_{i,j}P_{ij}(\log P_{ij}-1)H(P)=−∑i,j​Pij​(logPij​−1), with 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0. For ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, the regularized cost is LCε(a,b)=min⁡P∈U(a,b){⟨C,P⟩−εH(P)}L_C^\varepsilon(a,b)=\min_{P\in U(a,b)}\{\langle C,P\rangle-\varepsilon H(P)\}LCε​(a,b)=minP∈U(a,b)​{⟨C,P⟩−εH(P)}. The Gibbs kernel has entries Kij=exp⁡(−Cij/ε)K_{ij}=\exp(-C_{ij}/\varepsilon)Kij​=exp(−Cij​/ε). Given potentials f∈Rnf\in\mathbb R^nf∈Rn and g∈Rmg\in\mathbb R^mg∈Rm, the smooth dual objective is Q(f,g)=⟨f,a⟩+⟨g,b⟩−ε∑i,jefi/εKijegj/εQ(f,g)=\langle f,a\rangle+\langle g,b\rangle-\varepsilon\sum_{i,j}e^{f_i/\varepsilon}K_{ij}e^{g_j/\varepsilon}Q(f,g)=⟨f,a⟩+⟨g,b⟩−ε∑i,j​efi​/εKij​egj​/ε. These are the finite-dimensional objects of (4.1), (4.2), and (4.30) in the source (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, pp. 425, 428, 448).

Formalization targets

Attained entropic duality

The goal is Proposition 4.4. There are an optimal coupling PPP and potentials (f,g)(f,g)(f,g) at which the dual reaches its maximum, with the common value

LCε(a,b)=⟨C,P⟩−εH(P)=max⁡f′,g′Q(f′,g′).L_C^\varepsilon(a,b) =\langle C,P\rangle-\varepsilon H(P) =\max_{f',g'} Q(f',g').LCε​(a,b)=⟨C,P⟩−εH(P)=f′,g′max​Q(f′,g′).

For every maximizing pair (f′,g′)(f',g')(f′,g′), the same optimal coupling satisfies

Pij=efi′/εKijegj′/ε.P_{ij}=e^{f'_i/\varepsilon}K_{ij}e^{g'_j/\varepsilon}.Pij​=efi′​/εKij​egj′​/ε.

Thus the dual potentials determine the scaling vectors u=ef′/εu=e^{f'/\varepsilon}u=ef′/ε and v=eg′/εv=e^{g'/\varepsilon}v=eg′/ε in (4.12). The maximum is an attained maximum of a real function, as stated in the book, rather than an unrestricted real infimum or supremum that might take a default value on a bad input (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, Proposition 4.4).

Supporting results

The milestones follow the source's statements. Proposition 4.3 gives existence, uniqueness, and the Gibbs scaling of the primal optimizer. Remark 4.21 gives the two partial-gradient formulas and the closed log-domain block updates. Proposition 4.5 states that an entropic dual maximizer is a feasible pair of ordinary Kantorovich potentials, so its linear objective is bounded above by the unregularized cost LC(a,b)L_C(a,b)LC​(a,b) (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, pp. 432, 449, 452–453).

Significance

The equality establishes that the matrix scaling variables and the dual potentials describe the same optimal coupling. It lets a computation based on scaling be interpreted as maximizing a smooth objective, and it gives exact marginal-error expressions through the dual gradients. Feasible Kantorovich potentials obtained at the optimum also provide a lower bound on the ordinary transport cost. These statements explain why log-domain updates represent the same mathematical problem as entropic transport, even when direct exponentiation is numerically fragile (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, §§4.4–4.5).

The results are established in the textbook; the open work here is their Lean formalization. A completed development would provide reusable finite coupling, entropy, Gibbs-kernel, and smooth-dual interfaces, together with the existence and differentiability results needed to connect them. It would also distinguish a primal optimum, a dual maximum, and a feasible potential without relying on informal convention. The mission does not assert that these textbook results are new, and no machine-checked proof of these exact statements is claimed here.

Difficulty

The unconstrained dual objective has a symmetry: shifting every coordinate of fff by one constant and every coordinate of ggg by its negative leaves the value unchanged. Consequently, the set of maximizers is not bounded in the ordinary product space. Positivity of the marginals matters for attaining a maximum with finite real potentials; if a marginal entry is zero, the corresponding potential can escape toward negative infinity. On the primal side, the entropy formula must be valid at zero entries even though optimality links it to strictly positive exponential scalings. The formal argument must connect these boundary conventions and the finite-dimensional optimization statements without turning the maximum into a junk real supremum (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, Proposition 4.4 and Remark 4.21).

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents indices by Fin n and Fin m, matrices by Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ, and histograms by Mathlib's stdSimplex. Positive dimensions and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 appear throughout. Strictly positive marginal entries are required for the attained dual maximum and log-domain updates; the other statements permit zero entries. The book assumes positive weights for discrete measures in Remark 2.1; the marginal positivity is also required for the attained dual maximum and the logarithmic updates. The cost matrix itself may have arbitrary real entries. Entropy uses Real.negMulLog, which implements 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0 on the nonnegative couplings where it is applied.

The primal optimum is a predicate on a coupling and its objective, rather than a chosen matrix. The unregularized LCL_CLC​ is a real infimum used only when simplex marginals make its feasible set nonempty and bounded. The dual objective is a finite sum. Its gradients are stated as one-variable derivatives in each coordinate, and each block update is characterized as the unique maximizer with the other block fixed. The complete development needs Mathlib's finite sums, real exponential and logarithm, calculus, finite-dimensional topology, and optimization facts. Contributions that establish these shared interfaces or the four milestone statements are in scope.

Propositions 4.7 and 4.8 are excluded from this proposal because their printed bounds compare a dual linear objective with LCεL_C^\varepsilonLCε​ where the accompanying arguments instead support a comparison with the unregularized LCL_CLC​; (4.47) also has a sign discrepancy. The milestone list therefore avoids encoding a false inequality (Peyré and Cuturi, 2019, pp. 453–454).

Selected references

  • Gabriel Peyré and Marco Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6), 2019, pp. 355–607. DOI: 10.1561/2200000073.
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Computational Optimal Transport XI: For p = 1, 2 the p-Wasserstein Distance on ℝ^d with d ≥ 2 Is Not HilbertianTextbook

Why ask whether a Wasserstein distance is Hilbertian

Kernel methods, multidimensional scaling and low-distortion embeddings all work best on data whose distance comes from a Hilbert space. A distance ddd on a set Z\mathcal ZZ is Hilbertian when Z\mathcal ZZ can be mapped into a Hilbert space so that ddd becomes the norm distance; for such a ddd, the kernel e−dp/te^{-d^p/t}e−dp/t is positive definite for 0≤p≤20\le p\le 20≤p≤2 and t>0t>0t>0 (Berg, Christensen and Ressel, 1984), and the classical Euclidean toolbox applies. Optimal transport distances are popular for comparing probability measures, so it is natural to ask whether they are Hilbertian. In dimension one the answer is yes for W2\mathcal W_2W2​: the map sending a measure to its quantile function is an isometry into L2([0,1])L^2([0,1])L2([0,1]), and between univariate Gaussians W2\mathcal W_2W2​ is the Euclidean distance between (mean, standard deviation). Peyré and Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport (FnT ML 2019), §8.3, show that this does not extend to the plane: for p=1,2p=1,2p=1,2 and d≥2d\ge2d≥2 the ppp-Wasserstein distance on Rd\mathbb R^dRd is not Hilbertian (Proposition 8.2, p. 507).

The tool is a classical characterization. Schoenberg (1938) proved that a distance is Hilbertian exactly when its square is conditionally negative definite; Berg, Christensen and Ressel (1984, Prop. 3.2) give the modern form. The easy direction turns non-embeddability into a finite check, and the book's proof of Proposition 8.2 performs that check numerically on 35 measures supported on the four corners of the unit square (Figure 8.6, p. 508). Stronger, quantitative statements are known: planar W1\mathcal W_1W1​ does not even embed into L1L^1L1 with bounded distortion (Naor and Schechtman, 2007), and Andoni, Naor and Neiman (2018) study which powers of Wasserstein distances embed.

Setting

Let Z\mathcal ZZ be a set. A function φ:Z×Z→R\varphi:\mathcal Z\times\mathcal Z\to\mathbb Rφ:Z×Z→R is negative definite (Definition 8.3, p. 501, in the conditional form used in §8.3) if it is symmetric and, for every n≥0n\ge0n≥0, every x1,…,xn∈Zx_1,\dots,x_n\in\mathcal Zx1​,…,xn​∈Z and every r∈Rnr\in\mathbb R^nr∈Rn with ∑iri=0\sum_ir_i=0∑i​ri​=0,

∑i,j=1nrirj φ(xi,xj)≤0.\sum_{i,j=1}^n r_ir_j\,\varphi(x_i,x_j)\le0 .i,j=1∑n​ri​rj​φ(xi​,xj​)≤0.

A function d:Z×Z→Rd:\mathcal Z\times\mathcal Z\to\mathbb Rd:Z×Z→R is Hilbertian (Definition 8.4, p. 506) if there are a real Hilbert space H\mathcal HH and a map ϕ:Z→H\phi:\mathcal Z\to\mathcal Hϕ:Z→H with d(z,z′)=∥ϕ(z)−ϕ(z′)∥Hd(z,z')=\|\phi(z)-\phi(z')\|_{\mathcal H}d(z,z′)=∥ϕ(z)−ϕ(z′)∥H​ for all z,z′z,z'z,z′.

On Rd\mathbb R^dRd with the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​, let Pp(Rd)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)Pp​(Rd) be the Borel probability measures μ\muμ with ∫∥x∥2p dμ<∞\int\|x\|_2^p\,d\mu<\infty∫∥x∥2p​dμ<∞. A coupling of μ\muμ and ν\nuν is a measure π\piπ on Rd×Rd\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^dRd×Rd whose two marginals are μ\muμ and ν\nuν, and the ppp-Wasserstein distance (2.18) is

Wp(μ,ν)=(inf⁡π∫∥x−y∥2p dπ(x,y))1/p,\mathcal W_p(\mu,\nu)=\Big(\inf_{\pi}\int\|x-y\|_2^p\,d\pi(x,y)\Big)^{1/p},Wp​(μ,ν)=(πinf​∫∥x−y∥2p​dπ(x,y))1/p,

finite on Pp(Rd)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)Pp​(Rd). For points x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​ and a histogram a∈Σna\in\Sigma_na∈Σn​ (nonnegative, summing to one) the discrete measure is ∑iaiδxi\sum_ia_i\delta_{x_i}∑i​ai​δxi​​; for two histograms a,ba,ba,b, U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) is the set of nonnegative matrices with row sums aaa and column sums bbb, and LC(a,b)=min⁡P∈U(a,b)∑i,jCi,jPi,jL_C(a,b)=\min_{P\in U(a,b)}\sum_{i,j}C_{i,j}P_{i,j}LC​(a,b)=minP∈U(a,b)​∑i,j​Ci,j​Pi,j​ (2.11).

The configuration of the book's proof consists of the corners x1=[0,0]x^1=[0,0]x1=[0,0], x2=[1,0]x^2=[1,0]x2=[1,0], x3=[0,1]x^3=[0,1]x3=[0,1], x4=[1,1]x^4=[1,1]x4=[1,1] of the unit square, the 35 histograms of Σ4\Sigma_4Σ4​ with entries in {0,14,12,34,1}\{0,\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac34,1\}{0,41​,21​,43​,1}, and the centering matrix J=In−1n1n,nJ=I_n-\tfrac1n\mathbb 1_{n,n}J=In​−n1​1n,n​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8.2

For d≥2d\ge2d≥2 and p∈{1,2}p\in\{1,2\}p∈{1,2},

Wp on Pp(Rd) is not Hilbertian.\mathcal W_p \text{ on } \mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d) \text{ is not Hilbertian.}Wp​ on Pp​(Rd) is not Hilbertian.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 8.1, proved direction (pp. 506–507): if ddd is Hilbertian then d2d^2d2 is negative definite.
  2. Squared distance (p. 507): Wp2\mathcal W_p^2Wp2​ on Pp(Rd)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)Pp​(Rd) is not negative definite, d≥2d\ge2d≥2, p=1,2p=1,2p=1,2.
  3. Reduction to the plane (proof of Prop. 8.2): if Wp2\mathcal W_p^2Wp2​ on Pp(Rd)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)Pp​(Rd), d≥2d\ge2d≥2, were negative definite, so would be Wp2\mathcal W_p^2Wp2​ on Pp(R2)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^2)Pp​(R2).
  4. Discrete measures (Remark 2.13, p. 375): Wp(∑iaiδxi,∑jbjδxj)p=LC(a,b)\mathcal W_p\big(\sum_ia_i\delta_{x_i},\sum_jb_j\delta_{x_j}\big)^p=L_C(a,b)Wp​(∑i​ai​δxi​​,∑j​bj​δxj​​)p=LC​(a,b) with Ci,j=∥xi−xj∥2pC_{i,j}=\|x_i-x_j\|_2^pCi,j​=∥xi​−xj​∥2p​.
  5. Centering criterion (proof of Prop. 8.2): a matrix MMM admits a zero-sum rrr with r⊤Mr>0r^\top Mr>0r⊤Mr>0 if and only if JMJJMJJMJ has a positive eigenvalue.
  6. The grid counterexample (proof of Prop. 8.2, Figure 8.6): for p=1,2p=1,2p=1,2 there are grid histograms a1,…,ana^1,\dots,a^na1,…,an and a zero-sum rrr with
∑i,jrirj Wp2(∑kakiδxk,∑kakjδxk)>0.\sum_{i,j}r_ir_j\,\mathcal W_p^2\Big(\sum_k a^i_k\delta_{x^k},\sum_k a^j_k\delta_{x^k}\Big)>0.i,j∑​ri​rj​Wp2​(k∑​aki​δxk​,k∑​akj​δxk​)>0.

Significance

A Hilbertian distance gives positive definite Gaussian and Laplace kernels, Euclidean multidimensional scaling and Johnson–Lindenstrauss dimension reduction for free. Proposition 8.2 says none of these can be obtained for W1\mathcal W_1W1​ or W2\mathcal W_2W2​ on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, d≥2d\ge2d≥2, by an isometric embedding; this is why the literature turned to approximate embeddings, sliced distances and entropic surrogates (pp. 507–508). The negative-definiteness test of milestone 1 is a reusable certificate for non-embeddability of any finite metric.

The result is known, and the book's proof is a floating-point eigenvalue computation. The formal content of this mission is a machine-checked proof with an exact certificate: rational or algebraic Wasserstein distances between explicit discrete measures and an explicit zero-sum vector. As far as this mission is aware, no formal proof of the statement exists in Mathlib or on the platform. Schoenberg's converse is cited by the book and is not part of the mission.

Difficulty

The abstract part is short: expanding ∥ϕ(zi)−ϕ(zj)∥2\|\phi(z_i)-\phi(z_j)\|^2∥ϕ(zi​)−ϕ(zj​)∥2 and using ∑iri=0\sum_ir_i=0∑i​ri​=0 gives milestone 1. The obstacle is the certificate. The book observes that JDp2JJ\mathbf D_p^2JJDp2​J has a positive top eigenvalue (about 1.21.21.2 for p=1p=1p=1 and 0.70.70.7 for p=2p=2p=2), but a proof needs exact transport costs between the chosen measures, each the value of a small linear program whose optimality has to be established (for instance by a dual certificate), together with a vector rrr for which the quadratic form is provably positive. For p=1p=1p=1 the costs involve 2\sqrt22​, the diagonal of the square. A second, separate difficulty is connecting the measure-theoretic Wp\mathcal W_pWp​ to the discrete program (milestone 4) and transporting a counterexample from R2\mathbb R^2R2 into Rd\mathbb R^dRd (milestone 3), both of which require working with couplings as measures on a product space.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); Wp\mathcal W_pWp​ is the published definition WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance (an [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued infimum over all measures with the two marginals, raised to 1/p1/p1/p), converted to a real number. The distance is considered on Pp(Rd)\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)Pp​(Rd), the set where it is finite; outside it the real conversion is a junk 000. The book names no domain; since the counterexample consists of finitely supported measures, the finite computation gives non-Hilbertianity on Pp\mathcal P_pPp​ and on every smaller set containing those measures.
  • Negative definiteness is conditional. Definition 8.3 as printed quantifies over all rrr; under that reading no nonzero squared distance is negative definite, so Proposition 8.1 would be false and "not negative definite" trivially true. The zero-sum condition, used by the book in the proof of Proposition 8.1, is part of the definition; this rules out the trivial formalization.
  • Hilbert spaces are real, complete inner-product spaces in the universe of Z\mathcal ZZ. Indices are 0-based (Fin n). Histograms are real vectors; the reduction milestone is stated for every p≥1p\ge1p≥1.
  • Discrete transport objects (U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b), LCL_CLC​) are redefined in this mission's namespace CompOT.NotHilbertian, duplicating chunk II of the series.

Contributions welcome: the forward direction of Schoenberg's characterization, the discrete-measure bridge (reusable wherever discrete optimal transport meets measure-theoretic couplings), the isometric-embedding invariance of Wp\mathcal W_pWp​, and exact certificates for the grid computation.

Selected references

  • G. Peyré and M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6):355–607, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000073
  • I. J. Schoenberg, Metric spaces and positive definite functions, Transactions of the AMS 44(3):522–536, 1938. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1938-1501980-0
  • C. Berg, J. P. R. Christensen and P. Ressel, Harmonic Analysis on Semigroups, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 100, Springer, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1128-0
  • A. Naor and G. Schechtman, Planar earthmover is not in L1L_1L1​, SIAM Journal on Computing 37(3):804–826, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/05064206X
  • A. Andoni, A. Naor and O. Neiman, Snowflake universality of Wasserstein spaces, Annales scientifiques de l'École normale supérieure 51(3):657–700, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.08677
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryLinear Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Optimal Transport IV: The Support Graph of an Extreme Point of the Transportation Polytope U(a, b) Has No Cycle, Hence at Most n + m − 1 Nonzero EntriesTextbook

Motivation

Discrete optimal transport between two histograms is a linear program. Its feasible set, the transportation polytope, has been studied since Hitchcock (1941) and Kantorovich, and the structure of its vertices underlies the classical algorithms for the problem: the north-west corner rule produces a vertex, and the network simplex moves from vertex to vertex. A linear program with a nonempty bounded feasible set attains its minimum at a vertex, so knowing what vertices look like tells us what optimal transport plans can be assumed to look like.

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing G. Peyré and M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2019). It covers §3.4.1 of the book, Tree Structure of the Support of All Vertices of U(a, b) (pp. 405–407), whose single numbered result, Proposition 3.4, states that the support of a vertex is a forest. The book credits the result to Brualdi, Combinatorial Matrix Classes (2006, Theorem 8.1.2).

Setting

Fix integers n,mn, mn,m and histograms a∈Σna \in \Sigma_na∈Σn​, b∈Σmb \in \Sigma_mb∈Σm​. The transportation polytope is

U(a,b)={P∈R+n×m:P1m=a, P⊤1n=b},U(a,b) = \{ P \in \mathbb R_+^{n\times m} : P\mathbb 1_m = a,\ P^\top\mathbb 1_n = b \},U(a,b)={P∈R+n×m​:P1m​=a, P⊤1n​=b},

the set of nonnegative n×mn\times mn×m matrices whose row sums are a1,…,ana_1,\dots,a_na1​,…,an​ and whose column sums are b1,…,bmb_1,\dots,b_mb1​,…,bm​. Histograms are nonnegative and sum to one; U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) is the set of couplings between them. The cost of a plan PPP for a cost matrix CCC is ⟨C,P⟩=∑i,jCijPij\langle C, P\rangle = \sum_{i,j} C_{ij}P_{ij}⟨C,P⟩=∑i,j​Cij​Pij​.

A point xxx of a set SSS is an extremal point (vertex) of SSS if, whenever y,z∈Sy, z \in Sy,z∈S and x=(y+z)/2x = (y+z)/2x=(y+z)/2, necessarily x=y=zx = y = zx=y=z.

Take nnn source nodes V={1,…,n}V = \{1,\dots,n\}V={1,…,n} and mmm target nodes V′={1′,…,m′}V' = \{1',\dots,m'\}V′={1′,…,m′}. The complete bipartite graph between them has the nmnmnm edges (i,j′)(i, j')(i,j′). For a matrix PPP, the support S(P)S(P)S(P) is the set of edges (i,j′)(i,j')(i,j′) with Pij>0P_{ij} > 0Pij​>0, and the support graph is G(P)=(V∪V′,S(P))G(P) = (V\cup V', S(P))G(P)=(V∪V′,S(P)). A transport plan is a flow on the complete bipartite graph, with aia_iai​ leaving node iii and bjb_jbj​ entering node j′j'j′; G(P)G(P)G(P) records the edges the flow actually uses.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.4 (p. 406)

If PPP is an extremal point of U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b), then

G(P) has no cyclesand#{(i,j):Pij≠0}≤n+m−1.G(P) \text{ has no cycles}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \#\{(i,j) : P_{ij}\ne 0\} \le n + m - 1 .G(P) has no cyclesand#{(i,j):Pij​=0}≤n+m−1.

Milestones (proof of Proposition 3.4, p. 407)

  1. If G(P)G(P)G(P) has a cycle, there is a nonzero matrix EEE with E1m=0E\mathbb 1_m = 0E1m​=0, E⊤1n=0E^\top\mathbb 1_n = 0E⊤1n​=0, and Eij≠0⇒Pij>0E_{ij} \ne 0 \Rightarrow P_{ij} > 0Eij​=0⇒Pij​>0.
  2. For such an EEE and P∈U(a,b)P \in U(a,b)P∈U(a,b), both P+tEP + tEP+tE and P−tEP - tEP−tE lie in U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) for some t>0t > 0t>0.
  3. A graph with kkk nodes and no cycles has at most k−1k-1k−1 edges.
  4. For P≥0P \ge 0P≥0, the edges of G(P)G(P)G(P) correspond one-to-one to the nonzero entries of PPP.

Companion (§3.4, p. 405)

For a∈Σna \in \Sigma_na∈Σn​, b∈Σmb \in \Sigma_mb∈Σm​ and any cost CCC, some minimizer of ⟨C,P⟩\langle C, P\rangle⟨C,P⟩ over U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) is an extremal point of U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b).

Significance

Proposition 3.4 is the sparsity statement of discrete optimal transport: a vertex of U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) moves mass along at most n+m−1n+m-1n+m−1 source–target pairs, out of nmnmnm possible. With the companion, some optimal plan is that sparse. This is what makes the network simplex method a combinatorial algorithm on spanning trees of the bipartite graph (§3.5 of the book), and it is the reason the north-west corner rule (§3.4.2) can produce a feasible vertex with a tree support. The same fact, specialized to n=mn = mn=m and uniform histograms, is one step on the way from Kantorovich's relaxation back to Monge's assignment problem.

The result is classical and proved; it has not, to our knowledge, been formalized. Mathlib has the transportation polytope only implicitly (no dedicated definition), and it has the edge count of trees (SimpleGraph.IsTree.card_edgeFinset) but not the corresponding bound for forests. The mission produces a machine-checked link between the convex geometry of U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) and the combinatorics of its support graph, reusable by later missions of the series on the network simplex and on the assignment problem.

Difficulty

The convex-geometric half is elementary; the work is in the passage between a cycle of a graph and a matrix. The cycle is an object of Mathlib's graph library (a closed walk with distinct vertices in a graph on V⊔V′V \sqcup V'V⊔V′), while the perturbation is a matrix indexed by V×V′V \times V'V×V′. An informal picture of a cycle as a list of edges hides what the matrix statement needs: each source and each target must be visited at most once, and Mathlib's cycles are walks whose distinctness conditions have to be carried to the matrix level.

The edge bound for forests is not packaged in Mathlib either: it counts the edges of a tree, a connected acyclic graph, while the support graph of a vertex is in general disconnected, and the empty graph must be handled.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace CompOT.Vertices. Indices are Fin n and Fin m (0-based; the book's [ ⁣[n] ⁣]={1,…,n}[\![n]\!] = \{1,\dots,n\}[[n]]={1,…,n}). Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ, and U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) is the set of matrices with nonnegative entries, row sums aaa and column sums bbb. Extremality is the book's midpoint definition, relative to the set: the points y,zy, zy,z in x=(y+z)/2x = (y+z)/2x=(y+z)/2 range over U(a,b)U(a,b)U(a,b) only. This rules out the trivializing reading in which y,zy, zy,z range over all matrices (no point would then be extremal and the goal would be vacuous); conversely, the sanity file shows a non-extremal coupling, so extremality is not automatic either.

The support graph is a SimpleGraph (Fin n ⊕ Fin m) with Sum.inl i adjacent to Sum.inr j exactly when Pij>0P_{ij} > 0Pij​>0 and no other adjacencies. The book calls the edges (i,j′)(i,j')(i,j′) directed, but the cycles of its proof alternate between sources and targets, so "no cycles" is Mathlib's SimpleGraph.IsAcyclic of this undirected graph. The number of nonzero entries is the cardinality of {(i,j):Pij≠0}\{(i,j) : P_{ij} \ne 0\}{(i,j):Pij​=0}.

The goal, feasibility milestone and companion carry a∈Σna \in \Sigma_na∈Σn​, b∈Σmb \in \Sigma_mb∈Σm​, the book's standing notation for histograms (p. 360). These hypotheses make the index sets nonempty, so natural-number subtraction in the bound n+m−1n+m-1n+m−1 agrees with the book's integer expression.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: the forest edge bound for finite simple graphs, and the correspondence between cycles of a bipartite graph and signed matrices with zero line sums. Contributions of either as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Peyré, M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6):355–607, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000073
  • R. A. Brualdi, Combinatorial Matrix Classes, Cambridge University Press, 2006, §8.1. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721182
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997, Theorem 2.7.
  • F. L. Hitchcock, The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities, Journal of Mathematics and Physics 20:224–230, 1941. https://doi.org/10.1002/sapm1941201224
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Rate of Convergence in Wasserstein Distance of the Empirical Measure II: Concentration Inequalities for T_p(μ_N, μ) under Exponential or Polynomial Moments (Theorem 2)Research Paper

Motivation

Approximating an unknown probability measure μ\muμ by the empirical measure μN=1N∑k=1NδXk\mu_N=\frac1N\sum_{k=1}^N\delta_{X_k}μN​=N1​∑k=1N​δXk​​ of an i.i.d. sample is the basic operation of statistics, Monte Carlo integration, quantization and particle approximations of nonlinear PDEs. The natural way to compare μN\mu_NμN​ with μ\muμ on Rd\mathbb R^dRd is an optimal-transport cost, because it metrizes weak convergence together with convergence of moments. For many applications the mean of this cost is not enough: one needs to know how unlikely a large deviation is, for a fixed sample size NNN.

The main consumer in operations research is data-driven distributionally robust optimization. Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (Math. Program. 171, 2018) build Wasserstein balls around μN\mu_NμN​ whose radius is calibrated so that the true distribution lies inside with probability 1−β1-\beta1−β; their finite-sample guarantee (their inequality (7), quoted from this paper for p=1p=1p=1) is exactly a concentration inequality of the kind proved here. On Prove2Me that inequality appears as the hypothesis Concentration7 of WassDDRO.Consistency.Setting; Theorem 2 of this mission is the statement that discharges it.

Timeline. Bolley, Guillin and Villani (PTRF 137, 2007) proved concentration inequalities for Tp(μN,μ)\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)Tp​(μN​,μ) on non-compact spaces, under assumptions that often included functional inequalities for μ\muμ, and for rather large deviations. Boissard (Electron. J. Probab. 16, 2011) gave bounds in T1\mathcal T_1T1​ for empirical and occupation measures. Boissard and Le Gouic (arXiv:1105.5263) and Dereich, Scheutzow and Schottstedt (Ann. IHP 49, 2013) studied the mean speed of convergence; the latter introduced the multiscale bound used here and obtained sharp moment estimates for a limited range of parameters. Fournier and Guillin (arXiv:1312.2128, 2013; PTRF 162, 2015) gave moment bounds for all p>0p>0p>0 and d≥1d\ge1d≥1 under a qqq-th moment (their Theorem 1, mission I of this series) and the concentration inequalities of their Theorem 2, the subject of this mission, under integrability conditions only.

Setting

Fix d≥1d\ge1d≥1 and give Rd\mathbb R^dRd the Euclidean norm ∣x∣|x|∣x∣. Let μ\muμ be a Borel probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd and X1,…,XNX_1,\dots,X_NX1​,…,XN​ i.i.d. with law μ\muμ. For p>0p>0p>0 the transport cost between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν is

Tp(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫∣x−y∣p ξ(dx,dy): ξ∈H(μ,ν)},\mathcal T_p(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int|x-y|^p\,\xi(dx,dy):\ \xi\in\mathcal H(\mu,\nu)\Big\},Tp​(μ,ν)=inf{∫∣x−y∣pξ(dx,dy): ξ∈H(μ,ν)},

where H(μ,ν)\mathcal H(\mu,\nu)H(μ,ν) is the set of couplings, measures on Rd×Rd\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^dRd×Rd with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν (no 1/p1/p1/p root is taken). The moment conditions use

Mq(μ)=∫∣x∣q μ(dx),Eα,γ(μ)=∫eγ∣x∣α μ(dx).M_q(\mu)=\int|x|^q\,\mu(dx),\qquad \mathcal E_{\alpha,\gamma}(\mu)=\int e^{\gamma|x|^\alpha}\,\mu(dx).Mq​(μ)=∫∣x∣qμ(dx),Eα,γ​(μ)=∫eγ∣x∣αμ(dx).

The proof works with a multiscale distance Dp\mathcal D_pDp​. For ℓ≥0\ell\ge0ℓ≥0 let Pℓ\mathcal P_\ellPℓ​ be the partition of (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d into 2dℓ2^{d\ell}2dℓ dyadic cubes of side 21−ℓ2^{1-\ell}21−ℓ. For measures on (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d,

Dp(μ,ν)=2p−12∑ℓ≥12−pℓ∑F∈Pℓ∣μ(F)−ν(F)∣.\mathcal D_p(\mu,\nu)=\frac{2^p-1}{2}\sum_{\ell\ge1}2^{-p\ell}\sum_{F\in\mathcal P_\ell}|\mu(F)-\nu(F)|.Dp​(μ,ν)=22p−1​ℓ≥1∑​2−pℓF∈Pℓ​∑​∣μ(F)−ν(F)∣.

For measures on Rd\mathbb R^dRd one cuts space into the shells B0=(−1,1]dB_0=(-1,1]^dB0​=(−1,1]d, Bn=(−2n,2n]d∖(−2n−1,2n−1]dB_n=(-2^n,2^n]^d\setminus(-2^{n-1},2^{n-1}]^dBn​=(−2n,2n]d∖(−2n−1,2n−1]d, rescales each to (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d (the measure RBnμ\mathcal R_{B_n}\muRBn​​μ), and sums the compact distances with weights 2pn2^{pn}2pn. Lemma 5 bounds Tp\mathcal T_pTp​ by κp,dDp\kappa_{p,d}\mathcal D_pκp,d​Dp​. The splitting Dp(μN,μ)≤ZNp+VNp\mathcal D_p(\mu_N,\mu)\le Z^p_N+V^p_NDp​(μN​,μ)≤ZNp​+VNp​ separates the fluctuation of the shell masses, ZNp=∑n2pn∣μN(Bn)−μ(Bn)∣Z^p_N=\sum_n2^{pn}|\mu_N(B_n)-\mu(B_n)|ZNp​=∑n​2pn∣μN​(Bn​)−μ(Bn​)∣, from the fluctuation inside the shells, VNp=∑n2pnμ(Bn)Dp(RBnμN,RBnμ)V^p_N=\sum_n2^{pn}\mu(B_n)\mathcal D_p(\mathcal R_{B_n}\mu_N,\mathcal R_{B_n}\mu)VNp​=∑n​2pnμ(Bn​)Dp​(RBn​​μN​,RBn​​μ). A Poisson measure ΠN\Pi_NΠN​ with intensity NμN\muNμ (a Poisson(NNN) number of i.i.d. μ\muμ points) and f(x)=(1+x)log⁡(1+x)−xf(x)=(1+x)\log(1+x)-xf(x)=(1+x)log(1+x)−x enter the compact case.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 3)

Assume p≥d/2p\ge d/2p≥d/2 or p≥1p\ge1p≥1, and one of (1) Eα,γ(μ)<∞\mathcal E_{\alpha,\gamma}(\mu)<\inftyEα,γ​(μ)<∞ with α>p\alpha>pα>p; (2) Eα,γ(μ)<∞\mathcal E_{\alpha,\gamma}(\mu)<\inftyEα,γ​(μ)<∞ with α∈(0,p)\alpha\in(0,p)α∈(0,p); (3) Mq(μ)<∞M_q(\mu)<\inftyMq​(μ)<∞ with q>2pq>2pq>2p. Then for all N≥1N\ge1N≥1, x>0x>0x>0,

P(Tp(μN,μ)≥x)≤a(N,x)1{x≤1}+b(N,x),\mathbb P\big(\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)\ge x\big)\le a(N,x)\mathbf 1_{\{x\le1\}}+b(N,x),P(Tp​(μN​,μ)≥x)≤a(N,x)1{x≤1}​+b(N,x),

with a(N,x)=Ce−cNx2a(N,x)=Ce^{-cNx^2}a(N,x)=Ce−cNx2, Ce−cN(x/log⁡(2+1/x))2Ce^{-cN(x/\log(2+1/x))^2}Ce−cN(x/log(2+1/x))2 or Ce−cNxd/pCe^{-cNx^{d/p}}Ce−cNxd/p according as p>d/2p>d/2p>d/2, p=d/2p=d/2p=d/2, p∈[1,d/2)p\in[1,d/2)p∈[1,d/2), and b(N,x)=Ce−cNxα/p1{x>1}b(N,x)=Ce^{-cNx^{\alpha/p}}\mathbf 1_{\{x>1\}}b(N,x)=Ce−cNxα/p1{x>1}​ under (1), Ce−c(Nx)(α−ε)/p1{x≤1}+Ce−c(Nx)α/p1{x>1}C e^{-c(Nx)^{(\alpha-\varepsilon)/p}}\mathbf 1_{\{x\le1\}}+Ce^{-c(Nx)^{\alpha/p}}\mathbf 1_{\{x>1\}}Ce−c(Nx)(α−ε)/p1{x≤1}​+Ce−c(Nx)α/p1{x>1}​ under (2), CN(Nx)−(q−ε)/pCN(Nx)^{-(q-\varepsilon)/p}CN(Nx)−(q−ε)/p under (3). The constants C,c>0C,c>0C,c>0 depend only on p,dp,dp,d, the parameters of the condition, the value of the moment and ε\varepsilonε.

Milestones

In attack order: Lemma 5 (the coupling bound Tp≤κp,dDp\mathcal T_p\le\kappa_{p,d}\mathcal D_pTp​≤κp,d​Dp​); Lemma 9 (Poisson moment generating function and tails); Proposition 8 (concentration for ΠN(Rd)Dp(ΨN,μ)\Pi_N(\mathbb R^d)\mathcal D_p(\Psi_N,\mu)ΠN​(Rd)Dp​(ΨN​,μ) in the Poissonized compact case); Lemma 11 (P[Poisson(N)=N+k]≥e−2N−1/2/2\mathbb P[\mathrm{Poisson}(N)=N+k]\ge e^{-2}N^{-1/2}/\sqrt2P[Poisson(N)=N+k]≥e−2N−1/2/2​ for k≤⌊N⌋k\le\lfloor\sqrt N\rfloork≤⌊N​⌋); Proposition 10 (the compact case of Theorem 2, P[Dp(μN,μ)≥x]≤1{x≤1}a(N,x)\mathbb P[\mathcal D_p(\mu_N,\mu)\ge x]\le\mathbf 1_{\{x\le1\}}a(N,x)P[Dp​(μN​,μ)≥x]≤1{x≤1}​a(N,x)); Lemma 12 (binomial deviations); Lemma 13 (the tail of ZNpZ^p_NZNp​); display (6) (P[VNp≥x/(2κp,d)]≤a(N,x)1{x≤A}\mathbb P[V^p_N\ge x/(2\kappa_{p,d})]\le a(N,x)\mathbf 1_{\{x\le A\}}P[VNp​≥x/(2κp,d​)]≤a(N,x)1{x≤A}​).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 gives, for every dimension and every ppp in its range, a deviation inequality whose small-xxx part a(N,x)a(N,x)a(N,x) has the same dimension-dependent exponent as the mean rate of Theorem 1, and whose large-xxx part b(N,x)b(N,x)b(N,x) is governed only by the tail of μ\muμ. Under exponential moments the tail is again exponential; under a polynomial moment it is polynomial, which is the correct order. It is the input for finite-sample confidence radii in Wasserstein DRO, for non-asymptotic guarantees in quantization and for propagation-of-chaos estimates.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved (2013, published 2015) and widely cited; no machine-checked proof of it, or of any rate for the empirical measure in transport cost, exists in Mathlib or on Prove2Me. The work is formalizing the known proof: Poisson and binomial concentration (Lemmas 9, 12), the local Poisson bound (Lemma 11), Poissonization and depoissonization (Propositions 8, 10), and the shell decomposition (Lemma 13, display (6)). Lemmas 9, 11 and 12 are general probability facts useful well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious route is a bounded-differences (McDiarmid) inequality for ω↦Tp(μN,μ)\omega\mapsto\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)ω↦Tp​(μN​,μ). On Rd\mathbb R^dRd it is not available: moving a single sample point changes the cost by an amount that is unbounded, and the measures allowed here have only exponential or polynomial moments. Even on a compact set it bounds the deviation from the mean rather than from 000, so it gives nothing below the mean rate, and it does not see the dimension-dependent exponent xd/px^{d/p}xd/p of a(N,x)a(N,x)a(N,x). The bound must hold at all scales of the dyadic decomposition simultaneously, while the cell counts of a multinomial sample are dependent, and in the non-compact case the masses of far-away shells, which are rare events, must be controlled with a tail that degrades exactly as the moment condition allows.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with d≥1d\ge1d≥1; the Euclidean norm matters, since κp,d\kappa_{p,d}κp,d​ involves the diameter of (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d. The sample is ω:Fin N→Rd\omega:\mathrm{Fin}\,N\to\mathbb R^dω:FinN→Rd under the product measure μ⊗N\mu^{\otimes N}μ⊗N, and μN\mu_NμN​ is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.empiricalDistribution; couplings are the published WassersteinLinOpt.Ball.couplings. Costs, moments, Dp\mathcal D_pDp​, ZNpZ^p_NZNp​, VNpV^p_NVNp​ and expectations are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (lower Lebesgue integrals and [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued series), so no bound can hold through a junk value of a divergent integral. Probabilities are the product measure applied to the event. ΠN\Pi_NΠN​ is represented by its law, a Poisson(NNN) mixture of i.i.d. samples, as on p. 13. Poisson and binomial laws are Mathlib's poissonMeasure and binomial.

Constants: in each of the three parts, the condition's parameters, the moment value Eα,γ(μ)=E0\mathcal E_{\alpha,\gamma}(\mu)=E_0Eα,γ​(μ)=E0​ (resp. Mq(μ)=M0M_q(\mu)=M_0Mq​(μ)=M0​) and ε\varepsilonε are fixed before ∃ C,c\exists\,C,c∃C,c, and μ,N,x\mu,N,xμ,N,x come after. A formalization with μ\muμ fixed before the constants would be trivial (the constants could absorb μ\muμ), and one stating the goal as the sum of the bounds for ZNpZ^p_NZNp​ and VNpV^p_NVNp​ would assume the proof; the goal mentions neither Dp\mathcal D_pDp​, ΠN\Pi_NΠN​, ZNpZ^p_NZNp​ nor VNpV^p_NVNp​.

Departures from the print, each disclosed in the statements: the page writes Tp(μN,μ)\mathcal T_p(\mu^N,\mu)Tp​(μN,μ) for Tp(μN,μ)\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)Tp​(μN​,μ); Theorem 2 opens with "p>0p>0p>0" but prints a(N,x)a(N,x)a(N,x) only for p>d/2p>d/2p>d/2, p=d/2p=d/2p=d/2, p∈[1,d/2)p\in[1,d/2)p∈[1,d/2), so it is posed for p≥d/2p\ge d/2p≥d/2 or p≥1p\ge1p≥1; Proposition 8's "p≥1p\ge1p≥1" is relaxed to that range (its proof does not use p≥1p\ge1p≥1, and Theorem 2 needs it for every p>d/2p>d/2p>d/2) (Proposition 10 is posed, as printed, for every p>0p>0p>0); Lemma 12 assumes N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and a positive success probability, without which (a) and (b) are false. "Supported in (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d" is μ\muμ-null complement of B0B_0B0​.

The definitions of Tp\mathcal T_pTp​, MqM_qMq​, Notation 4 and Lemma 5 duplicate those of mission I of the series and are to be merged later. Contributions on Poisson and binomial concentration, and on transport costs between discrete measures, are reusable and welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Fournier, A. Guillin, On the rate of convergence in Wasserstein distance of the empirical measure, arXiv:1312.2128v1, 2013; Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 162 (2015) 707–738. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.2128
  • S. Dereich, M. Scheutzow, R. Schottstedt, Constructive quantization: approximation by empirical measures, Ann. Inst. H. Poincaré Probab. Statist. 49 (2013) 1183–1203. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-AIHP489
  • F. Bolley, A. Guillin, C. Villani, Quantitative concentration inequalities for empirical measures on non-compact spaces, Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 137 (2007) 541–593. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-006-0004-7
  • E. Boissard, T. Le Gouic, On the mean speed of convergence of empirical and occupation measures in Wasserstein distance, preprint, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.5263
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Math. Program. 171 (2018) 115–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-017-1172-1
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Rate of Convergence in Wasserstein Distance of the Empirical Measure I: Non-Asymptotic Moment Bounds on E T_p(μ_N, μ) under a q-th Moment Condition (Theorem 1)Research Paper

Motivation

How fast does the empirical measure of an i.i.d. sample approach the law it is drawn from? When distance is measured by optimal transport, the answer enters the analysis of statistical estimators built from empirical distributions, quantization of probability measures, Monte Carlo and particle approximations of nonlinear PDEs (McKean–Vlasov systems), and the radius calibration of Wasserstein ambiguity sets in data-driven distributionally robust optimization.

The question has a long history. Ajtai, Komlós and Tusnády (1984) found the (log⁡N/N)1/2(\log N/N)^{1/2}(logN/N)1/2 rate for uniform samples in the unit square. Horowitz–Karandikar (1994), Rachev–Rüschendorf and Mischler–Mouhot gave bounds that were far from optimal outside the compactly supported case. Boissard and Le Gouic (2014) and Dereich, Scheutzow and Schottstedt (2013) introduced multiscale couplings; the latter obtained sharp moment bounds for p∈[1,d/2)p\in[1,d/2)p∈[1,d/2), d≥3d\ge3d≥3, under a moment condition q>dp/(d−p)q>dp/(d-p)q>dp/(d−p). Fournier and Guillin (arXiv:1312.2128, Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 162, 2015) extended these bounds to every p>0p>0p>0, every dimension d≥1d\ge1d≥1 and every moment order q>pq>pq>p, with explicit dependence on the moment.

Setting

Fix d≥1d\ge1d≥1 and write ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣ for the Euclidean norm on Rd\mathbb R^dRd. For probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on Rd\mathbb R^dRd and p>0p>0p>0, the transport cost is

Tp(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫∣x−y∣p ξ(dx,dy): ξ∈H(μ,ν)}∈[0,∞],\mathcal T_p(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int|x-y|^p\,\xi(dx,dy):\ \xi\in\mathcal H(\mu,\nu)\Big\}\in[0,\infty],Tp​(μ,ν)=inf{∫∣x−y∣pξ(dx,dy): ξ∈H(μ,ν)}∈[0,∞],

where H(μ,ν)\mathcal H(\mu,\nu)H(μ,ν) is the set of couplings, measures on Rd×Rd\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^dRd×Rd with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν. The Wasserstein distance is Tp1/p\mathcal T_p^{1/p}Tp1/p​ for p>1p>1p>1 and Tp\mathcal T_pTp​ for p≤1p\le1p≤1; the statements here are about Tp\mathcal T_pTp​ itself. The moment of order q>0q>0q>0 is Mq(μ)=∫∣x∣q μ(dx)M_q(\mu)=\int|x|^q\,\mu(dx)Mq​(μ)=∫∣x∣qμ(dx).

Let X1,X2,…X_1,X_2,\dotsX1​,X2​,… be i.i.d. with law μ\muμ and let μN=1N∑k=1NδXk\mu_N=\frac1N\sum_{k=1}^N\delta_{X_k}μN​=N1​∑k=1N​δXk​​. The quantity of interest is E Tp(μN,μ)\mathbb E\,\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)ETp​(μN​,μ).

The proof works through a multiscale distance. For ℓ≥0\ell\ge0ℓ≥0, Pℓ\mathcal P_\ellPℓ​ is the partition of (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d into 2dℓ2^{d\ell}2dℓ dyadic cubes of side 21−ℓ2^{1-\ell}21−ℓ. The dyadic shells are B0=(−1,1]dB_0=(-1,1]^dB0​=(−1,1]d and Bn=(−2n,2n]d∖(−2n−1,2n−1]dB_n=(-2^n,2^n]^d\setminus(-2^{n-1},2^{n-1}]^dBn​=(−2n,2n]d∖(−2n−1,2n−1]d. For measures on (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d, Dp(μ,ν)=2p−12∑ℓ≥12−pℓ∑F∈Pℓ∣μ(F)−ν(F)∣\mathcal D_p(\mu,\nu)=\frac{2^p-1}{2}\sum_{\ell\ge1}2^{-p\ell}\sum_{F\in\mathcal P_\ell}|\mu(F)-\nu(F)|Dp​(μ,ν)=22p−1​∑ℓ≥1​2−pℓ∑F∈Pℓ​​∣μ(F)−ν(F)∣, and for measures on Rd\mathbb R^dRd,

Dp(μ,ν)=∑n≥02pn(∣μ(Bn)−ν(Bn)∣+(μ(Bn)∧ν(Bn))Dp(RBnμ,RBnν)),\mathcal D_p(\mu,\nu)=\sum_{n\ge0}2^{pn}\Big(|\mu(B_n)-\nu(B_n)|+\big(\mu(B_n)\wedge\nu(B_n)\big)\mathcal D_p(\mathcal R_{B_n}\mu,\mathcal R_{B_n}\nu)\Big),Dp​(μ,ν)=n≥0∑​2pn(∣μ(Bn​)−ν(Bn​)∣+(μ(Bn​)∧ν(Bn​))Dp​(RBn​​μ,RBn​​ν)),

where RBnμ\mathcal R_{B_n}\muRBn​​μ is μ\muμ conditioned on BnB_nBn​ and rescaled by 2−n2^{-n}2−n.

In Lean, Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); Tp\mathcal T_pTp​, MqM_qMq​, Dp\mathcal D_pDp​ are transportCost, moment, Dp (compact case Dcube) in FournierGuillin.Moment, valued in ℝ≥0∞. μN\mu_NμN​ is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.empiricalDistribution, and H(μ,ν)\mathcal H(\mu,\nu)H(μ,ν) the published WassersteinLinOpt.Ball.couplings.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 2)

For p>0p>0p>0 and q>pq>pq>p there is C=C(p,d,q)C=C(p,d,q)C=C(p,d,q) such that for every μ\muμ with Mq(μ)<∞M_q(\mu)<\inftyMq​(μ)<∞ and every N≥1N\ge1N≥1,

E Tp(μN,μ)≤C Mqp/q(μ)×{N−1/2+N−(q−p)/qp>d/2, q≠2p,N−1/2log⁡(1+N)+N−(q−p)/qp=d/2, q≠2p,N−p/d+N−(q−p)/qp∈(0,d/2), q≠dp/(d−p).\mathbb E\,\mathcal T_p(\mu_N,\mu)\le C\,M_q^{p/q}(\mu)\times\begin{cases}N^{-1/2}+N^{-(q-p)/q}&p>d/2,\ q\ne2p,\\ N^{-1/2}\log(1+N)+N^{-(q-p)/q}&p=d/2,\ q\ne2p,\\ N^{-p/d}+N^{-(q-p)/q}&p\in(0,d/2),\ q\ne dp/(d-p).\end{cases}ETp​(μN​,μ)≤CMqp/q​(μ)×⎩⎨⎧​N−1/2+N−(q−p)/qN−1/2log(1+N)+N−(q−p)/qN−p/d+N−(q−p)/q​p>d/2, q=2p,p=d/2, q=2p,p∈(0,d/2), q=dp/(d−p).​

The constant is left unspecified, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5 (p. 6): Tp(μ,ν)≤κp,d Dp(μ,ν)\mathcal T_p(\mu,\nu)\le\kappa_{p,d}\,\mathcal D_p(\mu,\nu)Tp​(μ,ν)≤κp,d​Dp​(μ,ν) with κp,d=2p(1+d/2)(2p+1)/(2p−1)\kappa_{p,d}=2^{p(1+d/2)}(2^p+1)/(2^p-1)κp,d​=2p(1+d/2)(2p+1)/(2p−1), for all probability measures.
  2. Lemma 6 (p. 7): Dp(μ,ν)≤C∑n≥02pn∑ℓ≥02−pℓ∑F∈Pℓ∣μ(2nF∩Bn)−ν(2nF∩Bn)∣\mathcal D_p(\mu,\nu)\le C\sum_{n\ge0}2^{pn}\sum_{\ell\ge0}2^{-p\ell}\sum_{F\in\mathcal P_\ell}|\mu(2^nF\cap B_n)-\nu(2^nF\cap B_n)|Dp​(μ,ν)≤C∑n≥0​2pn∑ℓ≥0​2−pℓ∑F∈Pℓ​​∣μ(2nF∩Bn​)−ν(2nF∩Bn​)∣.
  3. Shell tails (p. 8): Mq(μ)=1M_q(\mu)=1Mq​(μ)=1 implies μ(Bn)≤2−q(n−1)\mu(B_n)\le2^{-q(n-1)}μ(Bn​)≤2−q(n−1).
  4. Binomial mean deviation (p. 8): E∣μN(A)−μ(A)∣≤min⁡{2μ(A),μ(A)/N}\mathbb E|\mu_N(A)-\mu(A)|\le\min\{2\mu(A),\sqrt{\mu(A)/N}\}E∣μN​(A)−μ(A)∣≤min{2μ(A),μ(A)/N​}.
  5. Level bound (p. 8): ∑F∈PℓE∣μN(2nF∩Bn)−μ(2nF∩Bn)∣≤min⁡{2μ(Bn),2dℓ/2(μ(Bn)/N)1/2}\sum_{F\in\mathcal P_\ell}\mathbb E|\mu_N(2^nF\cap B_n)-\mu(2^nF\cap B_n)|\le\min\{2\mu(B_n),2^{d\ell/2}(\mu(B_n)/N)^{1/2}\}∑F∈Pℓ​​E∣μN​(2nF∩Bn​)−μ(2nF∩Bn​)∣≤min{2μ(Bn​),2dℓ/2(μ(Bn​)/N)1/2}.
  6. Display (4) (p. 8): E Dp(μN,μ)≤C∑n2pn∑ℓ2−pℓmin⁡{2−qn,2dℓ/2(2−qn/N)1/2}\mathbb E\,\mathcal D_p(\mu_N,\mu)\le C\sum_{n}2^{pn}\sum_{\ell}2^{-p\ell}\min\{2^{-qn},2^{d\ell/2}(2^{-qn}/N)^{1/2}\}EDp​(μN​,μ)≤C∑n​2pn∑ℓ​2−pℓmin{2−qn,2dℓ/2(2−qn/N)1/2} when Mq(μ)=1M_q(\mu)=1Mq​(μ)=1.
  7. Step 1 (p. 8): the scale series ∑ℓ≥02−pℓmin⁡{ε,2dℓ/2(ε/N)1/2}\sum_{\ell\ge0}2^{-p\ell}\min\{\varepsilon,2^{d\ell/2}(\varepsilon/N)^{1/2}\}∑ℓ≥0​2−pℓmin{ε,2dℓ/2(ε/N)1/2} in the three regimes.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the standard non-asymptotic rate for empirical measures in Wasserstein distance under moment assumptions alone. The three regimes are sharp for general laws: N−1/2N^{-1/2}N−1/2 is attained by two-point laws, N−p/dN^{-p/d}N−p/d by the uniform law on a cube, and the term N−(q−p)/qN^{-(q-p)/q}N−(q−p)/q by heavy-tailed laws (examples on pp. 2–3 of the paper). It is the input to finite-sample guarantees for Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, to propagation-of-chaos rates for particle systems, and to quantization error bounds.

The paper result is proved; it has, to our knowledge, no machine-checked proof. A formalization adds the multiscale coupling bound (Lemma 5), a reusable comparison between transport costs and dyadic mass differences, and binomial mean-deviation estimates for empirical measures, all of which serve other rates of convergence (the concentration bounds of Theorem 2 of the same paper rest on Lemma 5).

Difficulty

The obvious route bounds Tp\mathcal T_pTp​ by a coupling on a single partition of fixed mesh and optimizes the mesh. This loses a logarithm or a power in every regime and cannot reach N−p/dN^{-p/d}N−p/d for p<d/2p<d/2p<d/2 or N−1/2N^{-1/2}N−1/2 for p>d/2p>d/2p>d/2: the error at all scales must be controlled simultaneously, which is what Dp\mathcal D_pDp​ does. The step that requires work in Lean is Lemma 5: it builds an explicit coupling scale by scale inside (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d and glues the shells BnB_nBn​ together, and it must hold for arbitrary probability measures with possibly infinite cost. The remaining steps are careful summations of geometric series in nnn and ℓ\ellℓ whose regimes depend on ppp versus d/2d/2d/2 and on qqq versus 2p2p2p or dp/(d−p)dp/(d-p)dp/(d−p).

Formalization scope

Conventions: Rd\mathbb R^dRd with the Euclidean norm (the paper's constant κp,d\kappa_{p,d}κp,d​ uses the diameter bound 21+d/22^{1+d/2}21+d/2 of (−1,1]d(-1,1]^d(−1,1]d, which holds for that norm); d≥1d\ge1d≥1, N≥1N\ge1N≥1, p>0p>0p>0, μ\muμ a probability measure. The sample X1,…,XNX_1,\dots,X_NX1​,…,XN​ is a point of (Rd)N(\mathbb R^d)^N(Rd)N under the product measure μ⊗N\mu^{\otimes N}μ⊗N, i.e. the first NNN terms of the i.i.d. sequence. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued functions and all series of nonnegative terms are summed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so no bound holds by a junk value of a non-integrable integrand or a non-summable series. Constants "depending only on p,d,qp,d,qp,d,q" are quantified after p,d,qp,d,qp,d,q and before μ\muμ and NNN; a statement with the constant chosen after μ\muμ would only assert finiteness and is ruled out.

Corrections of the print, disclosed in the items: the third case of Theorem 1 is printed with q≠d/(d−p)q\ne d/(d-p)q=d/(d−p); the remark below the theorem and Step 4 of the proof show the excluded value is q=dp/(d−p)q=dp/(d-p)q=dp/(d−p) (the two agree only for p=1p=1p=1), and the goal excludes q=dp/(d−p)q=dp/(d-p)q=dp/(d−p). Step 1 is printed for ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1)ε∈(0,1) but applied at ε=1\varepsilon=1ε=1; it is stated for ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon\in(0,1]ε∈(0,1]. The display defining Tp\mathcal T_pTp​ says p≥1p\ge1p≥1, but the paper uses it for all p>0p>0p>0, and so does the definition.

Needed infrastructure: couplings and gluing of measures on products, dyadic partitions of boxes and their counting, binomial variance, and summation of geometric series with case analysis. Lemma 5 and the binomial estimates are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of the goal.

Selected references

  • N. Fournier, A. Guillin, On the rate of convergence in Wasserstein distance of the empirical measure, Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 162 (2015) 707–738; arXiv:1312.2128v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.2128 · https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-014-0583-7
  • S. Dereich, M. Scheutzow, R. Schottstedt, Constructive quantization: approximation by empirical measures, Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 49 (2013) 1183–1203. https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.5346
  • M. Ajtai, J. Komlós, G. Tusnády, On optimal matchings, Combinatorica 4 (1984) 259–264. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579135
  • E. Boissard, T. Le Gouic, On the mean speed of convergence of empirical and occupation measures in Wasserstein distance, Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 50 (2014) 539–563. https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.5263
  • J. Horowitz, R. L. Karandikar, Mean rates of convergence of empirical measures in the Wasserstein metric, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 55 (1994) 261–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0427(94)90033-7
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Mean Field Games Master Equations with Nonseparable Hamiltonians and Displacement Monotonicity: Under Displacement Monotone H and G, the Master Equation Has a Unique Global Classical SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games (Lasry–Lions 2006–2007; Huang–Malhamé–Caines 2006) describe Nash equilibria of games with a very large number of symmetric players, each interacting with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states. When all players are also exposed to a common noise, the equilibrium is no longer described by a forward–backward pair of PDEs but by a single equation on the space of probability measures, the master equation. The master equation is the object that lets one prove convergence of NNN-player equilibria to the mean field limit (Cardaliaguet–Delarue–Lasry–Lions 2019), so a global classical solution is the starting point of that theory.

Global well-posedness requires a monotonicity condition; without one, uniqueness of equilibria fails. Before this paper, global results were known under the Lasry–Lions monotonicity condition and for separable Hamiltonians H(x,μ,p)=H0(x,p)−F(x,μ)H(x,\mu,p)=H_0(x,p)-F(x,\mu)H(x,μ,p)=H0​(x,p)−F(x,μ), and under displacement convexity in deterministic potential games (Gangbo–Mészáros 2022). Gangbo, Mészáros, Mou and Zhang (Ann. Probab. 50 (2022)) prove global well-posedness for nonseparable Hamiltonians under displacement monotonicity, a condition that is different from Lasry–Lions monotonicity and that has a natural extension to Hamiltonians depending jointly on (x,μ,p)(x,\mu,p)(x,μ,p).

Setting

Let P2=P2(Rd)\mathcal P_2=\mathcal P_2(\mathbb R^d)P2​=P2​(Rd) be the Borel probability measures on Rd\mathbb R^dRd with finite second moment, with the 2-Wasserstein distance W2W_2W2​. For U:P2→RU:\mathcal P_2\to\mathbb RU:P2​→R, the Lions derivative ∂μU(μ,x~)∈Rd\partial_\mu U(\mu,\tilde x)\in\mathbb R^d∂μ​U(μ,x~)∈Rd is characterized by

U(Lξ+η)−U(μ)=E[⟨∂μU(μ,ξ),η⟩]+o(∥η∥2),Lξ=μ.U(\mathcal L_{\xi+\eta})-U(\mu)=\mathbb E[\langle\partial_\mu U(\mu,\xi),\eta\rangle]+o(\|\eta\|_2),\qquad \mathcal L_\xi=\mu .U(Lξ+η​)−U(μ)=E[⟨∂μ​U(μ,ξ),η⟩]+o(∥η∥2​),Lξ​=μ.

The class C2(Rd×P2)\mathcal C^2(\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P_2)C2(Rd×P2​) consists of continuous U(x,μ)U(x,\mu)U(x,μ) for which ∂xU\partial_xU∂x​U, ∂xxU\partial_{xx}U∂xx​U, ∂μU(x,μ,x~)\partial_\mu U(x,\mu,\tilde x)∂μ​U(x,μ,x~), ∂x∂μU\partial_x\partial_\mu U∂x​∂μ​U, ∂x~∂μU\partial_{\tilde x}\partial_\mu U∂x~​∂μ​U and ∂μμU(x,μ,x~,xˉ)\partial_{\mu\mu}U(x,\mu,\tilde x,\bar x)∂μμ​U(x,μ,x~,xˉ) exist and extend to jointly continuous functions of all their arguments.

The data are a horizon T>0T>0T>0, a common-noise intensity β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0 with β^2=1+β2\hat\beta^2=1+\beta^2β^​2=1+β2, a Hamiltonian H(x,μ,p)H(x,\mu,p)H(x,μ,p) and a terminal cost G(x,μ)G(x,\mu)G(x,μ). The master equation on Θ=[0,T]×Rd×P2\Theta=[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P_2Θ=[0,T]×Rd×P2​ is

−∂tV−β^22tr⁡(∂xxV)+H(x,μ,∂xV)−NV=0,V(T,x,μ)=G(x,μ),-\partial_tV-\tfrac{\hat\beta^2}{2}\operatorname{tr}(\partial_{xx}V)+H(x,\mu,\partial_xV)-\mathcal NV=0,\qquad V(T,x,\mu)=G(x,\mu),−∂t​V−2β^​2​tr(∂xx​V)+H(x,μ,∂x​V)−NV=0,V(T,x,μ)=G(x,μ),

with the nonlocal operator

NV=tr⁡ E~ˉ[β^22∂x~∂μV(t,x,μ,ξ~)+β22∂μμV(t,x,μ,ξˉ,ξ~)+β2∂x∂μV(t,x,μ,ξ~)−∂μV(t,x,μ,ξ~)(∂pH)⊤(ξ~,μ,∂xV(t,ξ~,μ))],\mathcal NV=\operatorname{tr}\,\bar{\tilde{\mathbb E}}\Big[\tfrac{\hat\beta^2}{2}\partial_{\tilde x}\partial_\mu V(t,x,\mu,\tilde\xi)+\tfrac{\beta^2}{2}\partial_{\mu\mu}V(t,x,\mu,\bar\xi,\tilde\xi)+\beta^2\partial_x\partial_\mu V(t,x,\mu,\tilde\xi)-\partial_\mu V(t,x,\mu,\tilde\xi)(\partial_pH)^\top(\tilde\xi,\mu,\partial_xV(t,\tilde\xi,\mu))\Big],NV=trE~ˉ[2β^​2​∂x~​∂μ​V(t,x,μ,ξ~​)+2β2​∂μμ​V(t,x,μ,ξˉ​,ξ~​)+β2∂x​∂μ​V(t,x,μ,ξ~​)−∂μ​V(t,x,μ,ξ~​)(∂p​H)⊤(ξ~​,μ,∂x​V(t,ξ~​,μ))],

where ξ~,ξˉ\tilde\xi,\bar\xiξ~​,ξˉ​ are independent with law μ\muμ. A classical solution is a V∈C1,2,2(Θ)V\in\mathcal C^{1,2,2}(\Theta)V∈C1,2,2(Θ) satisfying the equation on (0,T)(0,T)(0,T) and the terminal condition.

U(x,μ)U(x,\mu)U(x,μ) is displacement monotone (2.16) if for all square-integrable ξ,η\xi,\etaξ,η with Lξ=μ\mathcal L_\xi=\muLξ​=μ and an independent copy (ξ~,η~)(\tilde\xi,\tilde\eta)(ξ~​,η~​),

E~[⟨∂xμU(ξ,μ,ξ~)η~,η⟩+⟨∂xxU(ξ,μ)η,η⟩]≥0.\tilde{\mathbb E}\big[\langle\partial_{x\mu}U(\xi,\mu,\tilde\xi)\tilde\eta,\eta\rangle+\langle\partial_{xx}U(\xi,\mu)\eta,\eta\rangle\big]\ge0 .E~[⟨∂xμ​U(ξ,μ,ξ~​)η~​,η⟩+⟨∂xx​U(ξ,μ)η,η⟩]≥0.

The Hamiltonian is displacement monotone (Definition 3.4) if a bilinear form built from ∂xμH\partial_{x\mu}H∂xμ​H, ∂xxH\partial_{xx}H∂xx​H and a correction 14E∣(∂ppH)−1/2E~[∂pμH η~]∣2\tfrac14\mathbb E\big|(\partial_{pp}H)^{-1/2}\tilde{\mathbb E}[\partial_{p\mu}H\,\tilde\eta]\big|^241​E​(∂pp​H)−1/2E~[∂pμ​Hη~​]​2 is nonpositive, with p=φ(ξ)p=\varphi(\xi)p=φ(ξ) for every bounded Lipschitz C1C^1C1 map φ\varphiφ. Assumptions 3.1 and 3.2 impose regularity and bounds on GGG and HHH; Assumption 3.5 imposes the two monotonicity conditions.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.3, first sentence

Under Assumptions 3.1, 3.2 and 3.5, the master equation on [0,T][0,T][0,T] has a classical solution VVV with bounded ∂xV\partial_xV∂x​V, ∂xxV\partial_{xx}V∂xx​V, ∂μV\partial_\mu V∂μ​V, ∂xμV\partial_{x\mu}V∂xμ​V, and it is the only classical solution in that class:

∃! V∈C1,2,2(Θ) solving (1.1) with ∂xV,∂xxV,∂μV,∂xμV bounded.\exists!\,V\in\mathcal C^{1,2,2}(\Theta)\ \text{solving (1.1) with}\ \partial_xV,\partial_{xx}V,\partial_\mu V,\partial_{x\mu}V\ \text{bounded}.∃!V∈C1,2,2(Θ) solving (1.1) with ∂x​V,∂xx​V,∂μ​V,∂xμ​V bounded.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.1: ∂x~μU(μ,x~)\partial_{\tilde x\mu}U(\mu,\tilde x)∂x~μ​U(μ,x~) is symmetric for U∈C2(P2)U\in\mathcal C^2(\mathcal P_2)U∈C2(P2​).
  2. Theorem 4.1: along a sufficiently regular classical solution, V(t,⋅,⋅)V(t,\cdot,\cdot)V(t,⋅,⋅) is displacement monotone for every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T].
  3. Theorem 5.1: if V(t,⋅,⋅)V(t,\cdot,\cdot)V(t,⋅,⋅) is displacement semimonotone with constant λ\lambdaλ, then VVV and ∂xV\partial_xV∂x​V are W2W_2W2​-Lipschitz in μ\muμ with a constant depending only on ddd, TTT, ∥∂xV∥∞\|\partial_xV\|_\infty∥∂x​V∥∞​, ∥∂xxV∥∞\|\partial_{xx}V\|_\infty∥∂xx​V∥∞​, L2GL_2^GL2G​, LH(∥∂xV∥∞)L^H(\|\partial_xV\|_\infty)LH(∥∂x​V∥∞​) and λ\lambdaλ.
  4. Proposition 6.2(iii) with (6.7): on a short interval [t0,T][t_0,T][t0​,T], of length δ\deltaδ independent of L1GL_1^GL1G​, the master equation has a unique classical solution with full C2\mathcal C^2C2 regularity and ∣∂μV(t0)∣,∣∂xμV(t0)∣≤C1μ|\partial_\mu V(t_0)|,|\partial_{x\mu}V(t_0)|\le C_1^\mu∣∂μ​V(t0​)∣,∣∂xμ​V(t0​)∣≤C1μ​.

Significance

The theorem gives global classical well-posedness of the master equation with common noise for a class of Hamiltonians that need not be separable and data that need not be Lasry–Lions monotone. A classical solution is what the convergence analysis of NNN-player games and the construction of approximate equilibria take as input. Theorem 4.1, displacement monotonicity propagating backward along the equation, is the central structural fact; Theorem 5.1 converts it into an a priori Lipschitz bound in μ\muμ that is uniform in time, which is what allows local solutions to be continued.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in this mission is open mathematically. No part of it is formalized anywhere. The mission produces a formal statement of the master equation, its classical solutions and the displacement monotonicity conditions, plus targets for a machine-checked proof. Calculus on Wasserstein space with Lions derivatives is absent from Mathlib, so even Lemma 2.1 requires new infrastructure.

Difficulty

Local well-posedness holds for any regular data; the obstacle is continuing the solution to the whole interval. The length of the local interval depends on the Lipschitz constant of the terminal data in μ\muμ, and without a uniform-in-time bound on that constant the local intervals can shrink to zero. Lasry–Lions monotonicity is not available here, and for nonseparable HHH it has no obvious analogue. Any argument that controls this constant has to work with second-order Lions derivatives, which needs full C2\mathcal C^2C2 regularity in the measure variable. That regularity is itself only known on short intervals.

Formalization scope

  • States are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). P2\mathcal P_2P2​ is a subtype of measures, so functions of μ\muμ are defined only on P2\mathcal P_2P2​. W2W_2W2​ is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance with p=2p=2p=2, converted to a real number.
  • There is no probability space. Every expectation over ξ,η\xi,\etaξ,η and independent copies is an integral against an L2\mathbb L^2L2-coupling π\piπ (the joint law of (ξ,η)(\xi,\eta)(ξ,η)), against π⊗π\pi\otimes\piπ⊗π, or against μ⊗μ\mu\otimes\muμ⊗μ. Quantifying over all couplings is the reading of "for all ξ,η∈L2\xi,\eta\in\mathbb L^2ξ,η∈L2".
  • The Lions derivative is stated in coupling form, uniformly over all ξ\xiξ of law μ\muμ. Derivatives are explicit witnesses, i.e. global versions, and joint continuity is required as on the page.
  • Derivatives are (bi)linear maps. ⟨∂xμU η~,η⟩\langle\partial_{x\mu}U\,\tilde\eta,\eta\rangle⟨∂xμ​Uη~​,η⟩ takes the xxx-direction η\etaη first. Matrix norms are operator norms; this choice changes no statement, since all constants are existential.
  • C2(Rd×P2×Rk)\mathcal C^2(\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P_2\times\mathbb R^k)C2(Rd×P2​×Rk), which the page uses without defining, lumps the Euclidean variables into one. "H∈C3H\in\mathcal C^3H∈C3" is read as existence and joint continuity of the (x,p)(x,p)(x,p)-derivatives up to order three. Vector-valued memberships are stated coordinatewise.
  • ∂ppH\partial_{pp}H∂pp​H is assumed positive definite, which the page's (∂ppH)−1/2(\partial_{pp}H)^{-1/2}(∂pp​H)−1/2 presupposes. ∣A−1/2w∣2|A^{-1/2}w|^2∣A−1/2w∣2 is written ⟨A−1w,w⟩\langle A^{-1}w,w\rangle⟨A−1w,w⟩.
  • The expectations in NV\mathcal NVNV are required to exist, so a non-integrable integrand cannot make the equation hold through a Bochner integral defaulting to 000. L2GL_2^GL2G​ (Remark 3.3) is used in its Lipschitz form.
  • "Depending only on" clauses are quantifier orders. In Proposition 6.2, δ\deltaδ depends on d,T,C0,L0G,LH,L2Gd,T,C_0,L_0^G,L^H,L_2^Gd,T,C0​,L0G​,LH,L2G​; this expands LH(C1x)L^H(C_1^x)LH(C1x​), whose constant C1xC_1^xC1x​ comes from a BSDE. Uniqueness is within the bounded-derivative class of Theorem 6.3.
  • Out of scope: the second sentence of Theorem 6.3 (well-posedness of the McKean–Vlasov FBSDEs and the representation (6.6)), Proposition 6.1, and Proposition 6.2(i), (ii) and (2.27). They need Brownian motions with common noise and BSDEs.
  • A statement in which the regularity hypotheses cannot all hold at once, or in which existence of the solution is assumed, would be a trivializing formalization and is not acceptable. The hypotheses here are taken from the page, which shows they are satisfiable (Remark 3.6(i), Lemma 3.8).
  • Wanted contributions: first- and second-order calculus on P2\mathcal P_2P2​ (Lions derivatives, the chain rule along μ↦Lξ+εη\mu\mapsto\mathcal L_{\xi+\varepsilon\eta}μ↦Lξ+εη​, symmetry of ∂x~μ\partial_{\tilde x\mu}∂x~μ​). These are reusable for any mean field problem.

Selected references

  • W. Gangbo, A. R. Mészáros, C. Mou, J. Zhang, Mean field games master equations with nonseparable Hamiltonians and displacement monotonicity, Ann. Probab. 50(6), 2178–2217, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AOP1580
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2, 229–260, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The Master Equation and the Convergence Problem in Mean Field Games, Annals of Mathematics Studies 201, Princeton University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvckq7qf
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic Theory of Mean Field Games with Applications I–II, Springer, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-58920-6
  • W. Gangbo, A. R. Mészáros, Global well-posedness of master equations for deterministic displacement convex potential mean field games, Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 75, 2685–2801, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.22069
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

From the Master Equation to Mean Field Game Limit Theory: Large Deviations and Concentration of Measure 1: Without Common Noise, n-Player Nash Equilibria Concentrate Dimension-FreeResearch Paper

Motivation

A large stochastic game has one state process per player. Each player's feedback changes with the empirical distribution of all states, so a finite population remains coupled even when the idiosyncratic Brownian motions are independent. A useful quantitative question is whether a statistic of the entire collection of equilibrium trajectories can deviate substantially from its mean as the population grows. Delarue, Lacker, and Ramanan answer this for smooth closed-loop mean-field games in their large-deviations and concentration paper. Their result concerns the equilibrium state paths themselves, rather than only a fixed-time empirical measure.

The paper is part of a two-paper limit theory. Its companion central-limit paper supplies the Nash-to-McKean–Vlasov estimates quoted here as Theorems 4.1 and 4.2. The concentration argument also uses transport inequalities: Gozlan's dimension-free characterization explains the quadratic transport assumption on the initial law, while Djellout, Guillin, and Wu provide a transport principle for diffusion path laws. The present mission records the paper's main concentration theorem and four of its explicit intermediate targets.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a positive state dimension ddd. Player iii has a continuous state path Xi∈Cd=C([0,T];Rd)X^i\in C^d=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)Xi∈Cd=C([0,T];Rd). The empirical measure of a vector x=(x1,…,xn)x=(x^1,\ldots,x^n)x=(x1,…,xn) is mxn=n−1∑iδxim_x^n=n^{-1}\sum_i\delta_{x^i}mxn​=n−1∑i​δxi​; the same formula applies to paths. The norm on CdC^dCd is ∥x∥∞=sup⁡t≤T∣xt∣\|x\|_\infty=\sup_{t\le T}|x_t|∥x∥∞​=supt≤T​∣xt​∣, and the product norm relevant to this mission is ∥x∥n,2=(∑i∥xi∥∞2)1/2\|x\|_{n,2}=(\sum_i\|x^i\|_\infty^2)^{1/2}∥x∥n,2​=(∑i​∥xi∥∞2​)1/2.

The game is posed on a filtered probability space with a common Wiener process WWW, independent idiosyncratic Wiener processes BiB^iBi, and i.i.d. initial states X0iX^i_0X0i​ of law μ0\mu_0μ0​. The action space is Polish. A drift b(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)b(x,m,a), running cost f(x,m,a)f(x,m,a)f(x,m,a), and terminal cost g(x,m)g(x,m)g(x,m) specify the control problem. The Hamiltonian H(x,m,y)H(x,m,y)H(x,m,y) minimizes b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)\cdot y+f(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a) over actions; a selected minimizer α^\hat\alphaα^ defines b^=b(⋅,α^)\hat b=b(\cdot,\hat\alpha)b^=b(⋅,α^) and f^=f(⋅,α^)\hat f=f(\cdot,\hat\alpha)f^​=f(⋅,α^).

Classical solutions vn,iv^{n,i}vn,i of the nnn-player Nash system (2.6) determine the feedback in the equilibrium state equation (2.7). A classical solution UUU of the master equation (2.8) determines the comparison particle equation (4.1). Both equations retain common-noise terms in their definitions. The goal sets the common-noise coefficient σ0\sigma_0σ0​ to zero. Assumption A imposes Hamiltonian attainment, Lipschitz b^\hat bb^, nondegenerate idiosyncratic diffusion, an initial moment above order four, and the stated classical solutions. Either B or B′ controls the selected running cost; B′ also bounds UUU and vn,iv^{n,i}vn,i as specified on pp. 8–9.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 3.4. If μ0\mu_0μ0​ satisfies the quadratic transport inequality W2(μ0,ν)≤2κR(ν∣μ0)W_2(\mu_0,\nu)\le\sqrt{2\kappa R(\nu\mid\mu_0)}W2​(μ0​,ν)≤2κR(ν∣μ0​)​ for every ν≪μ0\nu\ll\mu_0ν≪μ0​ with finite second moment, then constants C,δ1,δ2>0C,\delta_1,\delta_2>0C,δ1​,δ2​>0 exist such that, for a>0a>0a>0, n≥C/a2n\ge C/a^2n≥C/a2, and every 1-Lipschitz Φ\PhiΦ on the product path space,

P ⁣(Φ(X)−EΦ(X)>a)≤2nexp⁡(−δ1a2n)+2exp⁡(−δ2a2).P\!\left(\Phi(X)-E\Phi(X)>a\right) \le 2n\exp(-\delta_1a^2n)+2\exp(-\delta_2a^2).P(Φ(X)−EΦ(X)>a)≤2nexp(−δ1​a2n)+2exp(−δ2​a2).

The four milestones retain the paper's two main comparison layers. Theorem 4.3 controls both the path-space Wasserstein distance between the Nash and comparison empirical measures and their synchronous squared path distance by 2nexp⁡(−ε2n2/κ2)2n\exp(-\varepsilon^2n^2/\kappa_2)2nexp(−ε2n2/κ2​) for n≥κ1/εn\ge\kappa_1/\varepsilonn≥κ1​/ε. Theorem 5.3 gives a dimension-uniform transport inequality and concentration bound for the law of a Lipschitz SDE in the coordinatewise product-supremum norm. Equation (5.7) bounds the change in a 1-Lipschitz path expectation when the deterministic initial vector changes. Theorem 5.4 gives P(Φ(X~)−EΦ(X~)>a)≤2e−δa2P(\Phi(\tilde X)-E\Phi(\tilde X)>a)\le2e^{-\delta a^2}P(Φ(X~)−EΦ(X~)>a)≤2e−δa2 for the interacting comparison system. The labels, constants, and domains follow the pinned preprint, pp. 12 and 16–20.

Significance

Theorem 3.4 supplies a finite-population tail estimate for every 1-Lipschitz observable of the entire equilibrium path vector. The first term becomes small at a population-dependent scale, while the second term has a rate independent of the number of players. This is stronger information than convergence of the empirical measure alone: it applies to path-dependent statistics and includes explicit deviation probabilities Theorem 3.4.

The mathematical statements are proved in the source paper, subject to its assumptions; Theorems 4.1 and 4.2 that support its comparison result are proved in the companion paper. The work here is to give these claims faithful machine-checkable statements and ultimately machine-checked proofs. The present draft is a set of open Lean theorem statements with sorry, so it asserts no completed formal proof. A completed development would also make its definitions of empirical path laws, Wasserstein continuity, flat derivatives, and interacting SDE solutions reusable for other mean-field models.

Difficulty

Independent-noise concentration cannot simply be applied to the Nash state paths. A player's drift depends on the empirical state measure and on a derivative of the nnn-player Nash solution, so changing one input can change every trajectory. The master equation describes a comparison system, but using it requires matching the Nash and master feedbacks on the same filtered probability space. The regularity in Assumptions A, B, and B′ is substantial: the master field has first and second derivatives in both space and measure, with uniform bounds. A formal proof must also preserve the exact path norm and the population-independent placement of constants. The SDE transport theorem's uniformity over dimensions is particularly consequential for Theorem 5.4 §§4–5.

Formalization scope

State vectors use finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces; time uses nonnegative reals and only [0,T][0,T][0,T] is evaluated. A continuous path is a ContinuousMap on that interval with its supremum norm. Finite products use PiLp 2; the scalar-coordinate version of the norm is used for Theorem 5.3. Players are indexed from zero, corresponding to the paper's indices 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n, and every theorem requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Probabilities and entropy are extended nonnegative values. Transport distances stay extended until a finite-moment hypothesis justifies their real value.

The filtered Wiener processes, i.i.d. initial states, Borel coefficients, Polish action space, Nash and master PDEs, and either B or B′ are represented explicitly. The master equation is imposed on P2\mathcal P_2P2​; its spatial gradient is also required on Pp∗\mathcal P_{p_*}Pp∗​​, as Assumption A(5) specifies. A flat measure derivative is a normalized witness satisfying (2.2), while spatial derivatives are actual Fréchet derivatives. SDE solutions are path-valued processes satisfying coordinate Itô integral relations; solution families are supplied as hypotheses, since their existence is asserted by the source. Expectations appearing in the conclusions are stated integrable, so a default zero integral cannot satisfy a tail bound accidentally. The model cannot be replaced by arbitrary paths or a vacuous solution predicate: the Nash and comparison paths must satisfy their respective equations with the same noises and initial states.

The mission includes Theorem 4.3, Theorem 5.3, (5.7), and Theorem 5.4. The quoted Theorems 4.1 and 4.2, the general transport equivalence of Theorem 5.1, and tensorization in Theorem 5.2 remain useful later contributions, with their original hypotheses and conclusions intact. The printed constant in the “moreover” clause of Theorem 5.1 is omitted because it is dimensionally incorrect; no substitute assertion is placed in this mission.

Selected references

  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: Large deviations and concentration of measure, Annals of Probability 48 (2020), 211–263; formalization follows arXiv:1804.08550v1.
  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: A central limit theorem, preprint (2018), arXiv:1804.08542.
  • N. Gozlan, A characterization of dimension free concentration in terms of transportation inequalities, Annals of Probability 37 (2009), 2480–2498, doi:10.1214/09-AOP470.
  • H. Djellout, A. Guillin, and L. Wu, Transportation cost-information inequalities and applications to random dynamical systems and diffusions, Annals of Probability 32 (2004), 2702–2732, doi:10.1214/009117904000000531.
12 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 2: The Shadow of γ1 + γ2 in ν Is the Shadow of γ1 Plus the Shadow of γ2 in What RemainsResearch Paper

Motivation

The martingale optimal transport problem asks for a coupling of two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR that is the law of a one-step martingale and minimizes an expected cost. It arises in robust finance, where the marginals are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two dates implied by option prices, and model-independent price bounds for exotic options are the extreme values of the problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014).

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016) construct a canonical martingale coupling, the left-curtain coupling, which plays the role that the monotone (quantile) coupling plays in classical transport. Its construction rests on one object, the shadow of a measure in another, and on one structural property of it: shadows are associative. This mission formalizes that property, Theorem 4.8 of the paper, together with the chain of results in §2.3 and §4.1–4.3 on which it rests.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment, of any total mass. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M:

  • the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν holds if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (this forces equal masses and equal barycentres);
  • the extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν holds if the same inequality holds for every nonnegative convex φ\varphiφ; it holds both when μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and when μ≤ν\mu\le\nuμ≤ν setwise;
  • the potential function of μ\muμ is uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y);
  • a sequence (νn)(\nu_n)(νn​) converges weakly in M\mathcal MM to ν\nuν if ∫f dνn→∫f dν\int f\,d\nu_n\to\int f\,d\nu∫fdνn​→∫fdν for every continuous bounded fff and ∫∣x∣ dνn→∫∣x∣ dν\int|x|\,d\nu_n\to\int|x|\,d\nu∫∣x∣dνn​→∫∣x∣dν.

If μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, a shadow of μ\muμ in ν\nuν is a measure η\etaη with (i) η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν, (ii) μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η, and (iii) η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ for every η′\eta'η′ satisfying (i) and (ii). Lemma 4.6 of the paper shows that it exists and is unique; it is written Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ). It is the least spread-out part of ν\nuν into which μ\muμ can be transported by a martingale. An atom is a measure α δx\alpha\,\delta_xαδx​ with α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0.

In the Lean development these objects are InM, ConvexLE, ExtConvexLE, potential, ConvergesInM and the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, in the namespace MartOT.Shadow.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.8 (shadow of a sum), p. 25

For γ1,γ2,ν∈M\gamma_1,\gamma_2,\nu\in\mathcal Mγ1​,γ2​,ν∈M with γ1+γ2⪯Eν\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_E\nuγ1​+γ2​⪯E​ν,

γ2⪯Eν−Sν(γ1)andSν(γ1+γ2)=Sν(γ1)+Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2).\gamma_2\preceq_E\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)\qquad\text{and}\qquad S^\nu(\gamma_1+\gamma_2)=S^\nu(\gamma_1)+S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2).γ2​⪯E​ν−Sν(γ1​)andSν(γ1​+γ2​)=Sν(γ1​)+Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Proposition 4.2 (p. 21): for equal masses, μ⪯Cν  ⟺  uμ≤uν\mu\preceq_C\nu\iff u_\mu\le u_\nuμ⪯C​ν⟺uμ​≤uν​; μ≤ν  ⟺  uν−uμ\mu\le\nu\iff u_\nu-u_\muμ≤ν⟺uν​−uμ​ is convex; for fixed mass and mean, convergence in M\mathcal MM is pointwise convergence of potential functions.
  2. Proposition 4.4 (p. 21): μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν implies μ⪯Cθ\mu\preceq_C\thetaμ⪯C​θ for some θ≤ν\theta\le\nuθ≤ν.
  3. Lemma 4.6 (p. 23): existence, uniqueness and property (iii′) of the shadow.
  4. Example 4.7 (p. 24): the shadow of an atom is the restriction of ν\nuν between two quantiles.
  5. Lemma 4.11 (p. 27): η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ)\eta-S^\eta(\delta)\le\nu-S^\nu(\delta)η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ) for an atom δ⪯Eη≤ν\delta\preceq_E\eta\le\nuδ⪯E​η≤ν.
  6. Lemma 4.12 (p. 27): the goal when γ1\gamma_1γ1​ is an atom.
  7. Lemma 4.13 (p. 28): the shadow of finitely many atoms, built one atom at a time.
  8. Lemma 2.9 (p. 15): approximation of γ∈M\gamma\in\mathcal Mγ∈M by a ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequence of finitely supported measures below it.
  9. Proposition 4.15 (p. 29): shadows pass to limits of ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequences.
  10. Lemma 4.16 (p. 29): the goal when γ2\gamma_2γ2​ is an atom, with δ⪯ESν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ)\delta\preceq_E S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)-S^\nu(\gamma)δ⪯E​Sν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ).

Significance

Theorem 4.8 is what makes the left-curtain coupling well defined and consistent. That coupling is the martingale plan which, for every xxx, sends μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ onto Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) (Theorem 4.18). Associativity says that the parts of ν\nuν assigned to μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ and to μ∣]x,x′]\mu|_{]x,x']}μ∣]x,x′]​ fit together into the part assigned to μ∣]−∞,x′]\mu|_{]-\infty,x']}μ∣]−∞,x′]​, so the family of shadows defines a single coupling. The uniqueness of left-monotone martingale plans and the optimality of the left-curtain coupling for the costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, both later results of the paper, rest on it.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a statement of it, and of the supporting results, in terms of measures of arbitrary finite mass with no reference to a chosen shadow function. A complete development would give Lean a theory of the convex order on finite measures through potential functions, which is reusable well beyond martingale transport.

Difficulty

For finitely atomic measures the identity follows by adding one atom at a time (Lemmas 4.12, 4.13, 4.16), but even the single-atom step needs a monotonicity property of shadows of atoms in varying targets (Lemma 4.11), and that property comes from their explicit description through quantile functions. The general case cannot be obtained by a direct manipulation of the minimality property (iii): minimality of Sν(γ1)S^\nu(\gamma_1)Sν(γ1​) and of Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2)S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2)Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​) separately says nothing obvious about minimality of their sum among measures dominating γ1+γ2\gamma_1+\gamma_2γ1​+γ2​, because a competitor for the sum need not split into competitors for the summands. The paper passes to the limit along convex-order approximations, which requires a continuity property of the shadow (Proposition 4.15) in the topology of M\mathcal MM.

Formalization scope

  • Measures are MeasureTheory.Measure ℝ with membership in M\mathcal MM stated explicitly (InM: finite measure, identity integrable). Masses are arbitrary; nothing is normalized to probability measures.
  • Integrals of convex test functions are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part), never as Bochner integrals, so a non-integrable test function cannot produce a junk value. The extended convex order uses lower Lebesgue integrals of nonnegative functions.
  • Shadows are the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, never a function built by choice. Every statement about Sν(⋅)S^\nu(\cdot)Sν(⋅) quantifies over all shadows, which with existence and uniqueness (Lemma 4.6, a milestone) is the paper's statement. Uniqueness is part of the conclusion of Lemma 4.6 and is not assumed elsewhere.
  • ν−η\nu-\etaν−η is Mathlib's truncated subtraction of measures. It is used only where η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν is guaranteed by property (i) of a shadow. Lemma 4.16 additionally asserts Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ)S^\nu(\gamma)\le S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ), so that the difference there is a genuine one.
  • Not a trivialization: in the goal, neither η1+η2≤ν\eta_1+\eta_2\le\nuη1​+η2​≤ν nor γ1+γ2⪯Cη1+η2\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_C\eta_1+\eta_2γ1​+γ2​⪯C​η1​+η2​ nor the minimality of η1+η2\eta_1+\eta_2η1​+η2​ is assumed; all three are the content of the conclusion IsShadow ν (γ1 + γ2) (η1 + η2).
  • Added relative to the page: Lemma 4.11 states ν∈M\nu\in\mathcal Mν∈M, which the paper takes from context. Proposition 4.2's third bullet is split into an equivalence for each candidate limit and a uniqueness clause, which together are equivalent to the printed sentence. Lemma 4.10 (continuity of ν↦Sν(δ)\nu\mapsto S^\nu(\delta)ν↦Sν(δ) in the Kantorovich metric) and Proposition 4.17 are not included.
  • Needed infrastructure: potential functions and their second distributional derivatives, quantile functions of finite measures, weak convergence of finite measures with first moments. Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
17 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 7: For c = |y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique, Keeps µ ∧ ν in Place, Splits the Rest in TwoResearch Paper

Motivation

A martingale transport plan between two laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR is a joint law of a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. Minimizing or maximizing E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over such plans gives the model-independent price bounds of an option with payoff c(X,Y)c(X,Y)c(X,Y) when the market quotes vanilla options at two maturities, and so fixes the marginal laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of the asset price. For the forward-starting straddle, with payoff ∣Y−X∣|Y-X|∣Y−X∣, the two bounds are the problems with costs −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ and ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale plans between μ\muμ and ν\nuν exist if and only if μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger (doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x) identify the optimizer for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ through a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2012: Hobson and Klimmek communicate a description of the optimizer for +∣y−x∣+|y-x|+∣y−x∣ to Beiglböck and Juillet, cited there as private communication (arXiv:1208.1509v2, §7.4 and reference 15).
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove existence, uniqueness and the shape of the optimizer for ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ for every continuous starting law, using only the primal problem and their variational lemma.

Setting

μ\muμ and ν\nuν are Borel probability measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments, in convex order: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is the set of measures π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

which is the paper's characterization (4) of "the disintegration πx\pi_xπx​ has barycentre xxx". For the cost c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣ the cost of a plan is ∫∣y−x∣ dπ∈[0,∞)\int|y-x|\,d\pi\in[0,\infty)∫∣y−x∣dπ∈[0,∞), and π\piπ is optimal if it minimizes this over ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). μ\muμ is continuous if μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the largest measure below both μ\muμ and ν\nuν (Example 2.5); (Id⊗Id)#η(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#\eta(Id⊗Id)#​η is the image of η\etaη under x↦(x,x)x\mapsto(x,x)x↦(x,x), a measure on the diagonal Δ={(x,x)}\Delta=\{(x,x)\}Δ={(x,x)}. For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}, and graph⁡(T)={(x,T(x))}\operatorname{graph}(T)=\{(x,T(x))\}graph(T)={(x,T(x))}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.4 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πabs∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πabs​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣; it is concentrated on a set Γ\GammaΓ with ∣Γx∣≤3|\Gamma_x|\le3∣Γx​∣≤3 for every xxx; and

πabs=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)+πgo,πgo concentrated on graph⁡(T1)∪graph⁡(T2)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)+\pi_{\mathrm{go}},\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{go}}\ \text{concentrated on}\ \operatorname{graph}(T_1)\cup\operatorname{graph}(T_2)πabs​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν)+πgo​,πgo​ concentrated on graph(T1​)∪graph(T2​)

for some functions T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment of the minimum (§2.1, pp. 10–11).
  2. Lemma 1.11, the variational lemma (p. 8).
  3. Lemma 7.5, the sign of a three-point cost difference (pp. 43–44).
  4. The forbidden configurations (24) on a finitely optimal set (p. 45).
  5. The static part: π∣Δ=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)\pi|_\Delta=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)π∣Δ​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν) for every optimal π\piπ (pp. 45–46).
  6. Lemma 3.2, accumulation of uncountably many large fibres (p. 19).
  7. At most two off-diagonal points per fibre (p. 46).
  8. The reduced problem between μ−μ∧ν\mu-\mu\wedge\nuμ−μ∧ν and ν−μ∧ν\nu-\mu\wedge\nuν−μ∧ν (p. 46).
  9. Lemma 5.5, two Borel graphs (p. 35), and Lemma 5.6, uniqueness from at most two points per fibre (p. 36).

Significance

The theorem identifies the lower model-independent bound for the forward-starting straddle: the extremal model keeps the mass that μ\muμ and ν\nuν share in place and splits every other starting point between at most two destinations. With Theorem 7.3 for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ it settles both bounds for continuous μ\muμ without any dual attainment, which is known to fail in general. The decomposition into a static part μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν and a part between marginals with μˉ∧νˉ=0\bar\mu\wedge\bar\nu=0μˉ​∧νˉ=0 is a reduction that applies to other costs vanishing on the diagonal.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission produces a formal statement of Theorem 7.4 and of each step of its proof, a Lean vocabulary for martingale transport on R\mathbb RR shared with the other missions of this series, and the general measure-theoretic lemmas (3.2, 5.5, 5.6) that the structure theorems of the paper all use.

Difficulty

Lemma 7.5 and (24) are elementary; the work lies in passing from them to statements about measures. The variational lemma needs Kellerer's duality-type result for finitely optimal sets. The static part requires showing that a positive defect κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection)\kappa=\mu\wedge\nu-\pi(\Delta\text{-projection})κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection) produces, at κ\kappaκ-almost every point, a forbidden configuration, which uses the disintegration of the moving part. The cardinality bound requires the accumulation argument of Lemma 3.2, and the forbidden configurations only hold for points that lie strictly inside the range of their own fibre, which the martingale condition supplies only almost everywhere. Uniqueness does not follow from strict convexity of a cost functional, since the problem is linear: it comes from the two-graph structure through Lemma 5.6, and it fails if μ\muμ has atoms (Remark 7.7).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with Borel σ-algebras. Costs are integrals in the extended reals through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral; the cost ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ is nonnegative and, under finite first moments, finite. Martingale plans are encoded by condition (4), competitors by the same device. μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the infimum in Mathlib's complete lattice of measures, measure subtraction is Mathlib's truncated subtraction, cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and "concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0. Continuity of μ\muμ is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for all xxx. As on the page, Γ\GammaΓ, T1T_1T1​ and T2T_2T2​ in the goal carry no measurability requirement.

Two choices differ from a literal reading and are disclosed in the items: (24) carries the hypothesis y−<x<y+y^-<x<y^+y−<x<y+ of Lemma 7.5, which the page invokes and without which (24) is false; and the steps that do not need continuity of μ\muμ (the static part, the reduced problem) are stated without it.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the lattice infimum of measures, not a product and not a pointwise minimum of set values, and all four conjuncts of the goal (existence, uniqueness, the bound 3, the decomposition) are asserted together.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Setting layer (convex order, ΠM\Pi_MΠM​, competitors), Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 (a Lusin–Novikov consequence) and Lemma 5.6. Proofs of any milestone, and infrastructure on disintegrations of plans on R2\mathbb R^2R2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 3: Between Probability Measures in Convex Order There Is Exactly One Left-Monotone Martingale PlanResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical optimal transport on the real line, one coupling plays a distinguished role: the monotone (Hoeffding–Fréchet) coupling, which sends the qqq-quantile of the first marginal to the qqq-quantile of the second. It is canonical (every initial segment of the first marginal goes as far left as possible) and it is optimal for a whole family of costs at once.

Martingale optimal transport adds the constraint that the coupling be the law of a one-step martingale (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y), E[Y∣X]=X\mathbb E[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. The problem arises in robust (model-independent) mathematical finance: prices of vanilla options fix the marginal laws μ\muμ of XXX and ν\nuν of YYY, and bounds on the price of an exotic option c(X,Y)c(X,Y)c(X,Y) that hold under every arbitrage-free model are values of the martingale transport problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). Martingale couplings exist exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order (Strassen 1965).

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016) asked for the martingale counterpart of the monotone coupling, and found it: the left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​. This mission formalizes its existence and uniqueness (Theorem 1.5), which is the foundation for the paper's later optimality results (Theorems 1.7, 6.1 and 6.3, other missions of this series).

Setting

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR or R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R. M\mathcal MM is the set of finite measures μ\muμ with ∫∣x∣ dμ<∞\int|x|\,d\mu<\infty∫∣x∣dμ<∞. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M:

  • Convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). It forces equal mass and equal mean. Extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν: the same inequality for nonnegative convex φ\varphiφ only (Definition 4.3); it allows μ(R)<ν(R)\mu(\mathbb R)<\nu(\mathbb R)μ(R)<ν(R).
  • Martingale transport plans ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν): measures π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν and ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ(x,y)=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0 for every bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ, that is, the conditional barycentre of πx\pi_xπx​ is xxx for μ\muμ-a.e. xxx.
  • Left-monotone plans (Definition 1.4): π\piπ is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ that contains no three points (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′) with x<x′x<x'x<x′ and y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+. Mass leaving a point xxx to both sides of y′y'y′ forbids any later point x′>xx'>xx′>x from sending mass to y′y'y′.
  • Shadow (Lemma 4.6): for μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ) is the measure η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν with μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η that is least in the convex order among all such η\etaη: the least spread-out part of ν\nuν into which μ\muμ can be embedded by a martingale.
  • Left-curtain coupling (Theorem 4.18): the plan πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ with proj⁡#x(πlc∣]−∞,x]×R)=μ∣]−∞,x]\operatorname{proj}^x_\#(\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}|_{]-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}proj#x​(πlc​∣]−∞,x]×R​)=μ∣]−∞,x]​ and νxπlc:=proj⁡#y(πlc∣]−∞,x]×R)=Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_x:=\operatorname{proj}^y_\#(\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}|_{]-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})νxπlc​​:=proj#y​(πlc​∣]−∞,x]×R​)=Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) for every xxx.

In Lean these are InM, ConvexLE, ExtConvexLE, IsMartingalePlan, IsLeftMonotone, IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain and targetUpTo in the shared namespace MartOT.Var. The mission's own theorems are in MartOT.Curtain.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.5 (p. 6)

For probability measures μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments,

∃! ππ∈ΠM(μ,ν)  and  π is left-monotone.\exists!\,\pi\quad\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ \text{ and }\ \pi\text{ is left-monotone}.∃!ππ∈ΠM​(μ,ν)  and  π is left-monotone.

Existence alone, or uniqueness only among left-curtain plans, is not the goal: the statement says that monotonicity alone singles out one martingale coupling.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6: shadows exist and are unique, and satisfy (iii′) for the extended order.
  2. Monotonicity of shadows (§4.4, p. 31): μ≤μ′⪯Eν\mu\le\mu'\preceq_E\nuμ≤μ′⪯E​ν implies Sν(μ)≤Sν(μ′)S^\nu(\mu)\le S^\nu(\mu')Sν(μ)≤Sν(μ′).
  3. Theorem 4.18: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ exists, is unique, is a probability measure and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  4. Theorem 1.8: νtπlc⪯Cνtπ\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_t\preceq_C\nu^\pi_tνtπlc​​⪯C​νtπ​ for every ttt and every π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν).
  5. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma): an optimal plan of finite cost lives on a Borel set on which no finitely supported measure has a cheaper competitor.
  6. Proof of Theorem 4.21: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is optimal for every cost cs,t(x,y)=1]−∞,s](x)∣y−t∣c_{s,t}(x,y)=\mathbf 1_{]-\infty,s]}(x)|y-t|cs,t​(x,y)=1]−∞,s]​(x)∣y−t∣.
  7. Theorem 4.21: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is left-monotone (the existence half of the goal).
  8. Lemma 5.1: end-point behaviour of μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν at sup⁡spt⁡μ\sup\operatorname{spt}\musupsptμ and inf⁡spt⁡μ\inf\operatorname{spt}\muinfsptμ.
  9. Lemma 5.2: a nonzero signed measure of mass 000 is detected by a test function ga,bg_{a,b}ga,b​ anchored in the support of its positive part.
  10. Theorem 5.3: every left-monotone martingale plan is the left-curtain coupling of its marginals (the uniqueness half).

Significance

Theorem 1.5 identifies a canonical martingale coupling defined by a geometric property of its support alone. The paper then shows that πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is the unique optimizer of the martingale transport problem for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex (Theorem 1.7) and that it is characterized by the convex-order minimality of Theorem 1.8. The left-curtain coupling has since been studied and generalized in a series of works (for instance Henry-Labordère and Touzi 2016).

The result is proved in the paper. It has, as far as the platform's catalogue shows, no machine-checked proof: no statement about martingale transport plans, shadows or the left-curtain coupling exists on Prove2Me. A formal development would produce reusable infrastructure: the convex order on finite measures of arbitrary mass, shadows, and the passage between the barycentre characterization (4) of martingale plans and their disintegrations.

Difficulty

Existence is not the hard part in the abstract: a left-monotone plan can be obtained as an optimizer for a suitable cost via the variational lemma. The construction through shadows is more delicate: one must show that the shadows of the initial segments μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ increase with xxx (this rests on Theorem 4.8, the shadow of a sum) and that the resulting plan satisfies the martingale property.

Uniqueness is the main obstacle. The classical argument for uniqueness of optimal plans (averaging two candidates and using strict convexity) requires a continuous first marginal and does not apply to arbitrary μ\muμ with atoms. The paper's argument is specific to the problem: it compares νxπ\nu^\pi_xνxπ​ with the shadow νxπlc\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_xνxπlc​​ through the test functions gu,vg_{u,v}gu,v​ and a case analysis at the support end-points, which needs the measure-theoretic Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2.

Formalization scope

  • Measures are MeasureTheory.Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with Borel σ-algebras. The goal and Theorems 1.8, 4.18, 4.21 take μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν probability measures (IsProbabilityMeasure) in convex order; Lemma 4.6, the shadow monotonicity, Lemma 5.1 and Theorem 5.3 work in M\mathcal MM, as the paper's Sections 4–5 do.
  • Integrals of convex functions and costs are extended-real valued (EReal, through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral), so no Bochner integral of a non-integrable function enters a statement. ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by characterization (4) of the paper, not by disintegrations.
  • Shadows and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain), never chosen functions: their existence and uniqueness are milestones, not definitions. A formalization that defined πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ by a choice and the left-monotone plan as "the left-curtain plan" would make the goal circular; the goal mentions only ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ and left-monotonicity.
  • "π(Γ)=1\pi(\Gamma)=1π(Γ)=1" is written π(Γc)=0\pi(\Gamma^c)=0π(Γc)=0; the support of a measure is Mathlib's Measure.support.
  • No hypothesis is added to any statement of the page. In Lemma 5.1, sup⁡spt⁡μ\sup\operatorname{spt}\musupsptμ is the real supremum of the support under BddAbove; at μ=0\mu=0μ=0 Lean's convention sup⁡∅=0\sup\emptyset=0sup∅=0 applies.
  • Reading: Theorem 1.8's "minimal" is formalized as "least" (below every member of the family), which is how the paper uses it.
  • Strassen's theorem is not restated; it is already posed on the platform as PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_cx.

Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, auxiliary lemmas on the convex order of finite measures (potential functions uμu_\muuμ​, equality of mass and mean), and the equivalence between (4) and the disintegration form of the martingale property.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. arXiv:1106.5929
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36(2), 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, An explicit martingale version of the one-dimensional Brenier theorem, Finance Stoch. 20(3), 635–668, 2016. arXiv:1302.4854
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 5: For c = ϕ(x)ψ(y), ψ Strictly Convex, ϕ Strictly Decreasing, the Left-Curtain Coupling Is the Unique OptimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR by a one-step martingale: a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. The problem arises in mathematical finance, where μ\muμ and ν\nuν are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two maturities, implied by quoted vanilla option prices, and the extremal values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all such couplings are model-independent price bounds for the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In classical optimal transport on the line, a single coupling, the monotone (quantile) coupling, is optimal for a whole family of costs. Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) identify its martingale counterpart, the left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​, and determine costs for which it is optimal.

This mission formalizes one of those optimality results, Theorem 6.3: for product costs c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y) with ψ\psiψ strictly convex and φ\varphiφ decreasing, πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is the unique optimizer.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν means ∫ϕ dμ≤∫ϕ dν\int\phi\,d\mu\le\int\phi\,d\nu∫ϕdμ≤∫ϕdν for every convex ϕ:R→R\phi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rϕ:R→R; it forces equal mass and equal mean. The extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν asks this only for nonnegative convex ϕ\phiϕ.

A transport plan from μ\muμ to ν\nuν is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν; the set of them is Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν). It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional law πx\pi_xπx​ of yyy given xxx has barycentre xxx for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the cost of a plan is Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞], the value is CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡π∈ΠM(μ,ν)Eπ[c]C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)}E_\pi[c]CM​(μ,ν)=infπ∈ΠM​(μ,ν)​Eπ​[c], and π\piπ is optimal if it belongs to ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and attains this infimum.

For a plan π\piπ and t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R, the measure νtπ=proj#y(π∣(−∞,t]×R)\nu^\pi_t=\mathrm{proj}^y_\#(\pi|_{(-\infty,t]\times\mathbb R})νtπ​=proj#y​(π∣(−∞,t]×R​) is where π\piπ sends the left part μ∣(−∞,t]\mu|_{(-\infty,t]}μ∣(−∞,t]​ of μ\muμ. Given μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, the shadow Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ) is the measure η\etaη with η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν and μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η that is ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-below every other such measure. The left-curtain coupling of μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν is the plan πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ with

proj#x(πlc∣(−∞,x]×R)=μ∣(−∞,x],νxπlc=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x])(x∈R).\mathrm{proj}^x_\#(\pi_{lc}|_{(-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=\mu|_{(-\infty,x]},\qquad \nu^{\pi_{lc}}_x=S^\nu(\mu|_{(-\infty,x]})\qquad(x\in\mathbb R).proj#x​(πlc​∣(−∞,x]×R​)=μ∣(−∞,x]​,νxπlc​​=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x]​)(x∈R).

It sends every left part of μ\muμ to the most concentrated part of ν\nuν that can receive it by a martingale.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.3

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be finite measures, ψ≥0\psi\ge0ψ≥0 strictly convex, φ≥0\varphi\ge0φ≥0 strictly decreasing, c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y), and assume CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞. Then

πlc is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM(μ,ν) equals πlc.\pi_{lc}\ \text{is optimal, and every optimal }\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\text{ equals }\pi_{lc}.πlc​ is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) equals πlc​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6: for μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν in M\mathcal MM the shadow exists and is unique.
  2. Theorem 4.18: for μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν the left-curtain coupling exists, is unique, and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  3. Proof of Theorem 4.21: for every π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) and sss, νsπ≤ν\nu^\pi_s\le\nuνsπ​≤ν, μ∣(−∞,s]⪯Cνsπ\mu|_{(-\infty,s]}\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sμ∣(−∞,s]​⪯C​νsπ​, and νsπlc⪯Cνsπ\nu^{\pi_{lc}}_s\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sνsπlc​​⪯C​νsπ​.
  4. Equation (16): ∫φ(x)ψ(y) dπ=∫0∞(∫ψ dν{φ≥t}π)dt\displaystyle\int\varphi(x)\psi(y)\,d\pi=\int_0^\infty\Big(\int\psi\,d\nu^\pi_{\{\varphi\ge t\}}\Big)dt∫φ(x)ψ(y)dπ=∫0∞​(∫ψdν{φ≥t}π​)dt.
  5. Equality case: for η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ and ψ\psiψ strictly convex with ∫ψ dη′<∞\int\psi\,d\eta'<\infty∫ψdη′<∞, ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ iff η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′.
  6. §1.3: a plan in Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν) is determined by the family (νtπ)t∈R(\nu^\pi_t)_{t\in\mathbb R}(νtπ​)t∈R​.

Significance

Theorem 6.3 gives a class of costs for which the martingale transport problem has an explicit, cost-independent solution, and does so with uniqueness and without any regularity of φ\varphiφ beyond monotonicity. In the financial reading, every payoff of the form φ(X)ψ(Y)\varphi(X)\psi(Y)φ(X)ψ(Y) with these shape properties has its model-independent lower price bound attained by one and the same model, the left-curtain martingale, which depends only on the marginals. The result complements Theorem 6.1 of the same paper (costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex), proved by a different, variational route.

The theorem is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version is known: neither the left-curtain coupling nor shadows nor martingale optimal transport on R\mathbb RR appears in Mathlib or on the platform. A formalization produces the shadow construction, the left-curtain coupling as a Lean object with its characterization, and the comparison principle "πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ has the ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-least targets", all of which are reused by the other results of the series (uniqueness of the left-monotone plan, Theorem 6.1, the support bounds of §7).

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares costs plan by plan, but the convex order of two measures alone does not order the integrals of a strictly convex ψ\psiψ strictly: that ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ forces η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′ requires representing η′\eta'η′ as a martingale image of η\etaη (Strassen's theorem on R\mathbb RR) and the equality case of Jensen's inequality, with care about infinite integrals. The second obstacle is the passage from "equal targets for almost every level ttt of φ\varphiφ" to "equal plans": the superlevel sets of a strictly decreasing φ\varphiφ are half-lines that may be open or closed at the jumps of φ\varphiφ, so the targets must be controlled for both kinds of half-line, and a null set of levels must be bridged by monotonicity of t↦νtπt\mapsto\nu^\pi_tt↦νtπ​. Existence of shadows (Lemma 4.6) is itself a nontrivial construction through potential functions uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with the Borel σ-algebras. μ\muμ and ν\nuν are finite, not necessarily probability, measures, as the theorem states; membership in M\mathcal MM is part of ConvexLE. Integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by the characterization above with bounded test functions ρ\rhoρ. The shadow and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain); their existence and uniqueness are milestones, never built into definitions. "Optimal" is minimality of cost over martingale plans; attainment is not assumed.

Two hypotheses are read into the printed statement. "Decreasing" is strict: with φ≡1\varphi\equiv1φ≡1 all martingale plans have the same cost ∫ψ dν\int\psi\,d\nu∫ψdν, and for μ\muμ uniform on {−1,1}\{-1,1\}{−1,1}, ν\nuν uniform on {−2,0,2}\{-2,0,2\}{−2,0,2} there are infinitely many of them. CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞ is added, as the proof assumes a plan of finite cost; otherwise every plan is optimal. A formalization in which πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is merely some plan, the cost is a Bochner integral (which is 000 for non-integrable integrands), or optimality is taken among all plans rather than martingale plans would not be Theorem 6.3. Theorem 4.18 is stated for finite measures of equal mass, the generality Theorem 6.3 needs. Strassen's theorem is already posed on the platform (PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_cx) and is not restated.

A complete development needs the convex order on finite measures, shadows, the left-curtain coupling, a layer-cake identity for product integrands and the equality case of the convex order for strictly convex test functions. The shadow and left-curtain layers are reusable across the whole series; contributions to any milestone, and to general lemmas on the convex order of finite (not only probability) measures, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 6: For c = −|y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique and Lives on Two Monotone GraphsResearch Paper

Motivation

A forward-start straddle pays ∣S2−S1∣|S_2 - S_1|∣S2​−S1​∣, the absolute change of an asset price between two future dates. A trader who knows the market prices of all vanilla options at both dates knows the laws μ\muμ of S1S_1S1​ and ν\nuν of S2S_2S2​, but not their joint law. Under a pricing measure the price is a martingale, so the admissible joint laws are exactly the martingale couplings of μ\muμ and ν\nuν. The highest price consistent with the data is therefore the value of an optimization problem over martingale couplings: maximize E∣S2−S1∣\mathbb E|S_2-S_1|E∣S2​−S1​∣. Hobson and Neuberger (Robust bounds for forward start options, 2012) studied this problem and identified the maximizing coupling through the dual problem. Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner (arXiv:1106.5929) showed that the dual maximizers need not exist in general.

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 2016) approach martingale transport through the structure of the support of optimal plans. Their Theorem 7.3 recovers the Hobson–Neuberger optimizer for every continuous starting law μ\muμ: it is unique and splits each starting point into at most two destinations along two monotone maps.

Timeline.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale couplings of μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν exist iff μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger identify the optimizer for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣ via a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2013: Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner give an example where the dual maximizers do not exist.
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet prove existence, uniqueness and the two-graph structure for every continuous μ\muμ, using only the primal problem and a variational lemma.

Setting

A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments is a probability measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ, second marginal ν\nuν, and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int \rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional mean of yyy given xxx is xxx. Their set is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). It is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the problem is

CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫c dπ: π∈ΠM(μ,ν)},C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int c\,d\pi:\ \pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\Big\},CM​(μ,ν)=inf{∫cdπ: π∈ΠM​(μ,ν)},

and π\piπ is optimal if it attains this infimum. This mission concerns the Hobson–Neuberger cost c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣, so optimal plans maximize ∫∣y−x∣ dπ\int|y-x|\,d\pi∫∣y−x∣dπ. The measure μ\muμ is continuous: μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 write Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}. A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν are probability measures and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πHN∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πHN​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣. Moreover there are a Borel set SSS with μ(S)=1\mu(S)=1μ(S)=1 and functions T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​, nondecreasing on SSS, with

T1(x)≤x≤T2(x) (x∈S),πHN({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1(x),T2(x)}})=1.T_1(x)\le x\le T_2(x)\ (x\in S),\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\big(\{(x,y):x\in S,\ y\in\{T_1(x),T_2(x)\}\}\big)=1.T1​(x)≤x≤T2​(x) (x∈S),πHN​({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1​(x),T2​(x)}})=1.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment (§2.1, pp. 10–11): for a lower semicontinuous, sufficiently integrable cost the infimum is attained when ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\neq\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅.
  2. Lemma 1.11 (p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα on Γ\GammaΓ has a cheaper competitor.
  3. Lemma 7.5 (pp. 43–44): the sign of A−BA-BA−B, an explicit difference of absolute values, as a function of one variable.
  4. (23) (p. 44): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, for (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')\in\Gamma(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ with y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+, neither y′≤x′<xy'\le x'<xy′≤x′<x nor x<x′≤y′x<x'\le y'x<x′≤y′.
  5. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19) and the countability of {a:∣Γa∣>2}\{a:|\Gamma_a|>2\}{a:∣Γa​∣>2} (p. 45).
  6. Lemma 5.5 (p. 35): a Borel set with at most two points per fibre is the union of two Borel graphs.
  7. Monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ (p. 45).
  8. Convexity of the set of optimizers (p. 45) and Lemma 5.6 (p. 36): a nonempty convex set of martingale plans each living on a set with two-point fibres is a single plan.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.3 gives the extremal martingale coupling for the forward-start straddle in closed structural form: a plan that sends each xxx to one point below and one point above it, both chosen monotonically in xxx. Combined with the martingale constraint, this determines the transition probabilities at each xxx, so the plan, and the model-independent upper price bound, are pinned down by μ\muμ and ν\nuν. Remark 7.6 of the paper shows that continuity of μ\muμ cannot be dropped: for atomic μ\muμ uniqueness can fail.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a formal account of a support-based method (variational lemma, forbidden configurations, fibre counting, selection of Borel graphs, uniqueness from convexity). Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 and Lemma 5.6 are general statements reused by the paper's other structure theorems (Corollary 1.6, Theorems 7.1, 7.4) and are of independent use.

Difficulty

The forbidden configurations (23) are pointwise statements about a set Γ\GammaΓ of full measure, while the conclusion is about functions. Passing from one to the other needs three ingredients that do not follow from (23) alone: a counting argument showing that only countably many fibres can have three or more points (this is where continuity of μ\muμ enters, through Lemma 3.2), a measurable selection of the two branches (Lemma 5.5, a Lusin–Novikov type theorem not in Mathlib), and a uniqueness argument comparing two optimizers through their average. The naive idea of reading uniqueness off from (23) directly fails: (23) constrains each optimizer separately, and two optimizers could a priori live on different pairs of graphs.

Lemma 1.11 itself rests on a duality theorem of Kellerer type for product sets and is the subject of a separate mission of this series.

Formalization scope

The Lean development works with measures on ℝ and ℝ × ℝ and their Borel σ-algebras. Integrals that may be infinite are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); the cost of a plan, CMC_MCM​, and the convex order are defined through it. ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is encoded by the paper's own characterization (4) with bounded test functions, and competitors by the same device; no disintegrations appear in the statements. Cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard, valued in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}. Continuity of μ\muμ is the hypothesis μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx. "Concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0.

The attainment milestone uses the finite-measure class M\mathcal MM introduced in §2.1: probability normalization is required for Lemma 1.11 and the goal, but not for attainment. The first moments of both marginals are explicit hypotheses in that milestone.

The goal states T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ as nondecreasing on a Borel set SSS of full μ\muμ-measure, with T1≤id≤T2T_1\le\mathrm{id}\le T_2T1​≤id≤T2​ on SSS. The page writes T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R nondecreasing everywhere; read literally that version fails when μ\muμ has bounded support and ν\nuν does not, and the paper's proof produces exactly the full-measure form (as in its Corollary 1.6).

Statements (23), the fibre count and the monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ are stated for an arbitrary set Γ\GammaΓ with the finite-optimality property of Lemma 1.11 for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣, so they do not depend on a plan. A formalization proving only existence of an optimizer, or uniqueness without the two-graph structure, does not settle the goal: both parts are required.

Needed infrastructure: weak compactness of ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and lower semicontinuity of the cost functional; a Kellerer-type duality for Lemma 1.11; a Lusin–Novikov selection theorem for Lemma 5.5. Contributions to any of these, and alternative proofs of Lemma 5.6, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. arXiv:1106.5929
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 4: For c = h(y − x) with h′ Strictly Convex the Left-Curtain Coupling Is the Unique OptimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two probability laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR under the extra constraint that the coupling is the law of a one-step martingale. The problem arose in robust mathematical finance: when the prices of all call options at two maturities are observed, the marginal laws of the underlying asset at those maturities are known, and the no-arbitrage bounds on the price of a path-dependent option are the values of a martingale transport problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). The paper of Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 44 (2016)) introduced the structural theory of the one-dimensional problem: a variational principle for optimal plans, a canonical coupling called the left-curtain coupling, and the identification of that coupling as the optimizer for a family of costs.

This mission formalizes that last identification. In classical optimal transport on the line, the monotone (quantile) coupling is the unique optimizer for every cost h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with hhh strictly convex; the result here is the martingale counterpart, with a different coupling and a different convexity condition.

Setting

Let μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν be Borel probability measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment. They are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). A transport plan is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with first marginal μ\muμ and second marginal ν\nuν; it is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if under π\piπ the conditional mean of yyy given xxx equals xxx, equivalently

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho .∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.

Strassen's theorem says ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ne\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅ exactly when μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν.

A cost is a function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R. It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) for all x,yx,yx,y with a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then ∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞] is well defined for every plan. The martingale transport problem is

CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡π∈ΠM(μ,ν)∫c dπ,C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)}\int c\,d\pi ,CM​(μ,ν)=π∈ΠM​(μ,ν)inf​∫cdπ,

and a plan attaining the infimum is optimal.

A plan π\piπ is (left-)monotone (Definition 1.4) if it is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ containing no three points (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′) with x<x′x<x'x<x′ and y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+. For a finite measure η≤μ\eta\le\muη≤μ, its shadow Sν(η)S^\nu(\eta)Sν(η) is the least measure in the convex order among the measures η′≤ν\eta'\le\nuη′≤ν with η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ (Lemma 4.6). The left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is the plan that transports μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ onto Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) for every xxx (Theorem 4.18); writing νtπ\nu^\pi_tνtπ​ for the second marginal of π∣]−∞,t]×R\pi|_{]-\infty,t]\times\mathbb R}π∣]−∞,t]×R​, this says νtπlc=Sν(μ∣]−∞,t])\nu^{\pi_{lc}}_t=S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,t]})νtπlc​​=Sν(μ∣]−∞,t]​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.7 (= Theorem 6.1)

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be probability measures, let h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R be differentiable with strictly convex derivative h′h'h′, let c(x,y)=h(y−x)c(x,y)=h(y-x)c(x,y)=h(y−x) satisfy the sufficient integrability condition, and assume CM(μ,ν)<∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<∞. Then

πlc is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM(μ,ν) equals πlc.\pi_{lc}\ \text{is optimal, and every optimal}\ \pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ \text{equals}\ \pi_{lc}.πlc​ is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) equals πlc​.

Milestones

  1. Attainment (§2.1): for a lower semicontinuous cost with the integrability condition, the infimum CM(μ,ν)C_M(\mu,\nu)CM​(μ,ν) is attained whenever ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ne\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅.
  2. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα with support in Γ\GammaΓ has a strictly cheaper competitor (same marginals, same conditional barycentres).
  3. The rerouting (proof of Theorem 6.1): for λy++(1−λ)y−=y′\lambda y^+ + (1-\lambda)y^- = y'λy++(1−λ)y−=y′, the measure α′\alpha'α′ with masses 1−λ,λ,11-\lambda,\lambda,11−λ,λ,1 at (x′,y−),(x′,y+),(x,y′)(x',y^-),(x',y^+),(x,y')(x′,y−),(x′,y+),(x,y′) is a competitor of α\alphaα with masses λ,1−λ,1\lambda,1-\lambda,1λ,1−λ,1 at (x,y+),(x,y−),(x′,y′)(x,y^+),(x,y^-),(x',y')(x,y+),(x,y−),(x′,y′).
  4. Display (15): d(t)=λh(y+−t)+(1−λ)h(y−−t)−h(y′−t)d(t)=\lambda h(y^+-t)+(1-\lambda)h(y^--t)-h(y'-t)d(t)=λh(y+−t)+(1−λ)h(y−−t)−h(y′−t) is strictly decreasing.
  5. The rerouting is strictly cheaper: for x<x′x<x'x<x′,
λc(x,y+)+(1−λ)c(x,y−)+c(x′,y′)>λc(x′,y+)+(1−λ)c(x′,y−)+c(x,y′).\lambda c(x,y^+)+(1-\lambda)c(x,y^-)+c(x',y')>\lambda c(x',y^+)+(1-\lambda)c(x',y^-)+c(x,y').λc(x,y+)+(1−λ)c(x,y−)+c(x′,y′)>λc(x′,y+)+(1−λ)c(x′,y−)+c(x,y′).
  1. Every finite optimizer is monotone.
  2. Theorem 4.18: πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ exists, is unique and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  3. Theorem 5.3: a monotone martingale transport plan is the left-curtain coupling of its marginals.
  4. Theorem 1.9 (companion): under the goal's hypotheses, for π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), "monotone", "optimal" and "νtπ⪯Cνtπ′\nu^\pi_t\preceq_C\nu^{\pi'}_tνtπ​⪯C​νtπ′​ for all π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν) and ttt" are equivalent.

Significance

The theorem shows that, for every cost h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex (for instance h=exp⁡h=\exph=exp), the martingale transport problem has the same optimizer, determined by μ\muμ and ν\nuν alone. In the financial reading, the model-independent bound on the price of the corresponding forward-start payoff is attained by one explicit martingale, the same for the whole family. Remark 6.2 of the paper derives from it that πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ also minimizes the essential supremum of y−xy-xy−x. Theorem 1.9 packages the result as an equivalence of a geometric property (monotonicity), an optimality property and an order property of the curtain; later work on the left-curtain coupling, its explicit construction, and its extensions to higher dimensions and to multiple marginals takes these characterizations as its starting point.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of it is formalized: Mathlib has the convex order neither for finite measures nor in the form used here, no martingale couplings, and no theory of shadows. The mission produces the statement layer (convex order on finite measures, martingale plans, extended-real costs, shadows, left-monotone plans, competitors) and asks for a machine-checked proof of the goal and of each milestone. The real-variable milestones (displays around (15)) are self-contained and elementary; the measure-theoretic ones carry the weight.

Difficulty

Optimality is a global property of a measure on R2\mathbb R^2R2, while monotonicity is a pointwise property of its support. Passing from the first to the second requires the variational lemma, whose proof uses a duality theorem for measures with prescribed marginal bounds and a measurable-selection argument; a direct perturbation of π\piπ along a single bad triple fails because a triple of points carries no mass. The second obstacle is uniqueness of the monotone plan (Theorem 5.3), which needs the shadow construction and the associativity of shadows; monotonicity alone does not visibly pin down the plan. Existence of an optimizer needs weak compactness of ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν), which is not immediate because the martingale condition is tested against bounded measurable, not continuous, functions.

Formalization scope

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR and R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R; μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν in the goal are probability measures. Convex order requires finite mass and finite first moment of both sides. Integrals that may be infinite (∫c dπ\int c\,d\pi∫cdπ, ∫φ dμ\int\varphi\,d\mu∫φdμ for convex φ\varphiφ) are computed in the extended reals as ∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f− (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral), never as Bochner integrals. ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by the test-function condition displayed above (the paper's (4)). Shadows and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain); their existence and uniqueness are theorems, and the goal asserts them rather than assuming them. Strict convexity of h′h'h′ is strict convexity of deriv h on R\mathbb RR, with hhh differentiable everywhere. Finiteness of costs is CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞, which is the same as the existence of a martingale plan of finite cost (Theorem 6.1's wording).

A formalization that assumes an optimizer exists, or that asserts uniqueness only among left-curtain plans, is trivial and is not the goal: the statement asserts a plan with the left-curtain property, its optimality, and that every optimal plan equals it.

The development needs: weak compactness of plan sets on R2\mathbb R^2R2; lower semicontinuity of extended-real cost functionals; the variational lemma (shared with the companion mission on Lemma 1.11); shadows and their order properties; and the uniqueness of monotone martingale plans. The shadow theory and the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series on this paper. Contributions on any milestone are welcome, including proofs of the elementary displays (15) and the rerouting inequality.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1208.1509v2
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices: a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 8: If Affine Lines Meet h′ in at Most k Points, Optimal Plans Split Each Non-Atom Into at Most k PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of a price at two dates under the constraint that the coupling is a martingale: the conditional mean of the later price given the earlier one equals the earlier one. It is the model-independent pricing problem of mathematical finance: given the marginal laws implied by vanilla option prices, the extreme values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all martingale couplings bound the price of the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In the classical (non-martingale) transport problem, the shape of the cost determines the shape of the optimal coupling: for strictly convex costs of y−xy-xy−x on the line the optimizer is a monotone map. The question this mission addresses is the martingale analogue: how much can an optimal martingale coupling split a single starting point, as a function of the cost?

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) introduced the variational lemma for this problem and used it to prove, among other results, that the left-curtain coupling is optimal for a family of costs and that, for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x), the number of points into which an optimal plan sends a non-atom of μ\muμ is bounded by a geometric property of h′h'h′ alone (their Theorem 7.1). This mission formalizes that bound.

Setting

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR or R2\mathbb R^2R2. A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ(x,y)=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0 for every bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; equivalently, the disintegration (πx)(\pi_x)(πx​) of π\piπ along its first coordinate satisfies ∫y dπx(y)=x\int y\,d\pi_x(y)=x∫ydπx​(y)=x for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. The set of such plans is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν); it is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, meaning ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

A cost is a function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R. It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) for some a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞] is well defined for every plan. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if Eπ[c]≤Eπ′[c]E_\pi[c]\le E_{\pi'}[c]Eπ​[c]≤Eπ′​[c] for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν).

A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y). For a set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ} is its fibre over xxx.

This mission concerns costs of the form c(x,y)=h(y−x)c(x,y)=h(y-x)c(x,y)=h(y−x) with h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R twice continuously differentiable, and the hypothesis that affine functions meet h′h'h′ in at most kkk points: for all s,t∈Rs,t\in\mathbb Rs,t∈R, ∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k|\{x:h'(x)=sx+t\}|\le k∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k. For instance h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 satisfies it with k=3k=3k=3.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 38)

Under the hypotheses above, with π\piπ an optimal martingale plan of finite cost, there is a disintegration (πx)x∈R(\pi_x)_{x\in\mathbb R}(πx​)x∈R​ of π\piπ such that for every x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R

μ({x})>0orcard⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k,\mu(\{x\})>0\qquad\text{or}\qquad\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le k,μ({x})>0orcard(sptπx​)≤k,

and if μ\muμ has no atoms, card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k holds μ\muμ-almost surely for every disintegration of π\piπ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma, p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα with spt⁡α⊆Γ\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gammasptα⊆Γ has a strictly cheaper competitor.
  2. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19): if uncountably many fibres Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ have at least kkk points, some (a,b1<⋯<bk)(a,b_1<\dots<b_k)(a,b1​<⋯<bk​) is a limit of such configurations from the right and from the left.
  3. An interior point off the chord (proof of Theorem 7.1, p. 39): for b0<⋯<bkb_0<\dots<b_kb0​<⋯<bk​, some interior bib_ibi​ has h′(bi−a)h'(b_i-a)h′(bi​−a) off the chord of h′(⋅−a)h'(\cdot-a)h′(⋅−a) through b0,bkb_0,b_kb0​,bk​.
  4. The local sign (p. 39): near such (a,bi)(a,b_i)(a,bi​), the cost difference (17) − (18) of a three-point rerouting is nonzero with sign fixed by a−a′a-a'a−a′.
  5. Countably many exceptional points (pp. 38–39): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, only countably many continuity points xxx of μ\muμ have ∣Γx∣≥k+1|\Gamma_x|\ge k+1∣Γx​∣≥k+1.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 7.1 converts a one-dimensional condition on h′h'h′ into a sparsity statement for every optimal martingale coupling: non-atoms of μ\muμ are sent to at most kkk points. For h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 this gives at most three points, and Section 7.3 of the paper gives an example with continuous μ\muμ where the optimizer splits into more than two points, so for this cost the bound cannot be lowered to two. For costs where h′h'h′ is strictly convex (so k=2k=2k=2), it gives the two-point structure also enjoyed by the left-curtain coupling, which is optimal for those costs (Theorem 1.9). Such support bounds are what make the optimizers computable and the corresponding robust price bounds explicit.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is formalized. A formal proof requires machine-checked versions of the variational lemma (itself resting on a duality theorem of Kellerer type), the countability argument of Lemma 3.2, and the real-analysis estimate behind the three-point rerouting. Each of these is reusable: Lemma 1.11 drives every structural result of the paper, and Lemma 3.2 is used again for the left-monotonicity theorems.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt is to argue pointwise: if a fibre Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ has k+1k+1k+1 points, reroute mass within that fibre to lower the cost. This fails, because a competitor must preserve the barycentre of each fibre, and within a single fibre no rerouting both preserves the barycentre and the marginals. Any improvement must move mass between two different starting points aaa and a′a'a′, and this requires the two fibres to be close to each other and arranged consistently, which a single fibre cannot guarantee. Producing such pairs of fibres needs uncountably many exceptional points (Lemma 3.2) and the set Γ\GammaΓ of the variational lemma, whose existence is the deep part (it rests on a duality theorem for measures with given marginals). A second difficulty is that the conclusion is required at every non-atom xxx, not only almost everywhere, so the exceptional set must be controlled exactly.

Formalization scope

Lean represents measures with Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded through the test-function characterization ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ=0 for bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; costs are extended-real integrals ∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞]\int c^+-\int c^-\in[-\infty,+\infty]∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞] (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral); competitors of a finitely supported α=∑s∈Swsδs\alpha=\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_sα=∑s∈S​ws​δs​ are encoded through the same test-function device. A disintegration is a Markov kernel κ\kappaκ with π=μ⊗κ\pi=\mu\otimes\kappaπ=μ⊗κ, and card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k is written as "κ(x)\kappa(x)κ(x) is concentrated on a set of at most kkk points", which is equivalent for probability measures on R\mathbb RR. Cardinalities take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}; h′h'h′ is deriv h.

Standing and added hypotheses of the goal: μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν are probability measures in convex order; "optimal transport plan" means optimal martingale plan, as throughout Section 7; and, because the proof starts from Lemma 1.11, the hypotheses of that lemma are added: the sufficient integrability condition for ccc and finite cost of π\piπ. "Continuous μ\muμ" is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

The conclusion is not trivialized: the first part holds for every xxx with a single chosen kernel, not almost everywhere, and the second part quantifies over all kernels, not one. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for example h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4, k=3k=3k=3, μ=ν=δ0\mu=\nu=\delta_0μ=ν=δ0​).

A complete development needs disintegration of measures on R2\mathbb R^2R2 (available in Mathlib as condKernel), the variational lemma with its duality ingredient, and elementary real analysis. Contributions to the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series of missions on this paper.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
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Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty under Wasserstein Ambiguity: The Reduced Quantile-Strengthened MIP (20) Is an Exact Reformulation of DR-CCPResearch Paper

Motivation

A chance-constrained program chooses a decision xxx so that a random vector ξ\xiξ falls outside a decision-dependent safety set S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) with probability at most ϵ\epsilonϵ. Chance constraints are a standard model for reliability requirements in power systems, supply chains and transportation, where a plan must survive random demand or supply with high probability. In practice the distribution of ξ\xiξ is known only through samples ξ1,…,ξN\xi_1, \dots, \xi_Nξ1​,…,ξN​, and the sample average approximation (SAA) that replaces it by the empirical distribution PN\mathbb P_NPN​ is sensitive to the particular sample.

Distributionally robust chance constraints regularize SAA by requiring the probability bound for every distribution within Wasserstein distance θ\thetaθ of PN\mathbb P_NPN​. Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann (arXiv:1809.00210) and Xie (doi:10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5) showed that, for safety sets defined by linear inequalities, the resulting program (DR-CCP) is a mixed-integer linear program with a big-M constant. These big-M formulations are hard for solvers to close when θ\thetaθ is small. Ho-Nguyen, Kılınç-Karzan, Küçükyavuz and Lee (doi:10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y) connect the formulation to the mixing sets of SAA and to robust 0–1 programming, and derive a smaller and tighter formulation that is still exact.

Setting

The random vector lives in RK\mathbb R^KRK with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥; in the formalization it is a finite-dimensional real normed space EEE. The dual norm of a linear functional bbb is ∥b∥∗=sup⁡∥ξ∥≤1b⊤ξ\|b\|_* = \sup_{\|\xi\| \le 1} b^\top \xi∥b∥∗​=sup∥ξ∥≤1​b⊤ξ. The decision xxx ranges over a set X⊆RL\mathcal X \subseteq \mathbb R^LX⊆RL.

The 1-Wasserstein distance between distributions P,P′\mathbb P, \mathbb P'P,P′ is the infimum of E∥ξ−ξ′∥\mathbb E\|\xi - \xi'\|E∥ξ−ξ′∥ over couplings of P\mathbb PP and P′\mathbb P'P′. The ambiguity set FN(θ)\mathcal F_N(\theta)FN​(θ) is the set of distributions within distance θ\thetaθ of PN=1N∑iδξi\mathbb P_N = \frac1N \sum_{i} \delta_{\xi_i}PN​=N1​∑i​δξi​​. The feasible region of (DR-CCP) is

XDR(S)={x∈X:sup⁡P∈FN(θ)P[ξ∉S(x)]≤ϵ}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \Big\{x \in \mathcal X : \sup_{\mathbb P \in \mathcal F_N(\theta)} \mathbb P[\xi \notin \mathcal S(x)] \le \epsilon\Big\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:P∈FN​(θ)sup​P[ξ∈/S(x)]≤ϵ}.

Throughout, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 are fixed.

The paper studies joint chance constraints with right-hand side uncertainty: for p∈[P]p \in [P]p∈[P] there are ap∈RLa_p \in \mathbb R^Lap​∈RL, bpb_pbp​ and dp∈Rd_p \in \mathbb Rdp​∈R, and

S(x)={ξ:bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x>0, p∈[P]}.\mathcal S(x) = \{\xi : b_p^\top \xi + d_p - a_p^\top x > 0,\ p \in [P]\}.S(x)={ξ:bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x>0, p∈[P]}.

Write gi,p(x)=(bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗g_{i,p}(x) = (b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*gi,p​(x)=(bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​ and k=⌊ϵN⌋k = \lfloor \epsilon N \rfloork=⌊ϵN⌋. Let qpq_pqp​ be the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th largest value among {−bp⊤ξi}i∈[N]\{-b_p^\top\xi_i\}_{i\in[N]}{−bp⊤​ξi​}i∈[N]​, and let [N]p={i:−bp⊤ξi>qp}[N]_p = \{i : -b_p^\top \xi_i > q_p\}[N]p​={i:−bp⊤​ξi​>qp​}.

The big-M formulation (5) of Chen et al. uses binaries z∈{0,1}Nz \in \{0,1\}^Nz∈{0,1}N, slacks r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 and a scalar t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 with

ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri,M(1−zi)≥t−ri,gi,p(x)+Mzi≥t−ri.\epsilon t \ge \theta + \tfrac1N \textstyle\sum_i r_i,\qquad M(1 - z_i) \ge t - r_i,\qquad g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge t - r_i.ϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​,M(1−zi​)≥t−ri​,gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥t−ri​.

The paper's improved formulation (20) keeps the first two families, adds the knapsack constraint ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k, replaces MMM in the third family by hi,p=(−bp⊤ξi−qp)/∥bp∥∗h_{i,p} = (-b_p^\top\xi_i - q_p)/\|b_p\|_*hi,p​=(−bp⊤​ξi​−qp​)/∥bp​∥∗​, imposes it only for i∈[N]pi \in [N]_pi∈[N]p​, and adds (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗≥t(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* \ge t(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​≥t for every ppp.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 655)

XDR(S)={x∈X:∃ (z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \exists\,(z, r, t) \text{ satisfying (20b)–(20d)}\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:∃(z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.

The goal states equality of feasible sets of xxx. Because the objective c⊤xc^\top xc⊤x depends on xxx alone, this is the paper's "exact reformulation".

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (4b), p. 646: dist⁡(ξ,S(x))=max⁡{0,min⁡p(bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S(x)) = \max\{0, \min_p (b_p^\top\xi + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*\}dist(ξ,S(x))=max{0,minp​(bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​}, where dist⁡(ξ,S)=inf⁡{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∉S}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S) = \inf\{\|\xi - \xi'\| : \xi' \notin \mathcal S\}dist(ξ,S)=inf{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∈/S} is (1).
  2. (3), p. 645: for open S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x), XDR(S)\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)XDR​(S) is the set of x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X admitting t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 with dist⁡(ξi,S(x))≥t−ri\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x)) \ge t - r_idist(ξi​,S(x))≥t−ri​ and ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri\epsilon t \ge \theta + \frac1N\sum_i r_iϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​.
  3. (6), p. 646: XDR(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \text{(5b)–(5e)}\}XDR​(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}.
  4. Theorem 1, p. 648: adding ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k and gi,p(x)+Mzi≥0g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge 0gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥0 to (5) keeps it exact.
  5. Theorem 2, p. 651: replacing MMM in (5e) by hi,ph_{i,p}hi,p​, with the knapsack constraint, keeps it exact.
  6. Lemma 1, p. 653: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), ttt may be taken equal to the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th smallest of the distances dist⁡(ξi,S(x))\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x))dist(ξi​,S(x)).
  7. Proposition 1, p. 654: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), some solution of (17) also satisfies (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗−t≥0(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* - t \ge 0(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​−t≥0 for every ppp.

Milestones 2 and 3 are results of Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann that this paper cites and uses, not results it proves.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the scenario-wise big-M rows of the Wasserstein chance constraint can be replaced by at most ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ rows per ppp, with coefficients computed from the data. Remark 2 of the paper counts at least ((1−ϵ)N−1)P((1-\epsilon)N - 1)P((1−ϵ)N−1)P fewer rows than (17). The reduced form exposes a robust 0–1 substructure, and the paper adapts Atamtürk's valid inequalities for it. Its computational study reports order-of-magnitude speed-ups on stochastic transportation problems.

The results are proved on paper; none is machine-checked. The formalization would give a verified chain from the Wasserstein worst-case probability to a finite mixed-integer system. Milestone (3), the dual reformulation, is reusable for any distributionally robust chance constraint over a 1-Wasserstein ball around an empirical distribution, and (4b) for any polyhedral safety set. A second formalization layer would verify the order-statistic arguments (Lemma 1, Proposition 1) used throughout the quantile-strengthening literature.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts — Theorems 1–3 given (3) and (4b) — are finite case analyses on zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}, but each step relies on order statistics of the sample with ties. Lemma 1 rests on the paper's "without loss of generality, sort the distances", and a formal proof must handle ties and the floor ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ exactly. The paper's proof of Theorem 2 argues "at optimality"; for a statement about feasible sets that argument has to be replaced by an explicit choice of zzz.

The hard step is (3). It exchanges a supremum over all Borel probability measures in a Wasserstein ball for a scalar system. The naive attempt, which perturbs PN\mathbb P_NPN​ by moving mass from the samples to the nearest unsafe points, proves only one inclusion. The other needs strong duality for worst-case probabilities over transport balls, together with attainment of the dual infimum, which uses θ>0\theta > 0θ>0.

Formalization scope

  • The ξ-space is a type E with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E] and its Borel σ-algebra. The norm is arbitrary, not the sup norm of Fin K → ℝ.
  • Each bpb_pbp​ is a continuous linear functional (StrongDual ℝ E), so ∥bp∥∗\|b_p\|_*∥bp​∥∗​ is its operator norm.
  • Decisions are Fin L → ℝ, with ap⊤xa_p^\top xap⊤​x written a p ⬝ᵥ x. Indices are 0-based.
  • The worst-case probability is the published ModelRiskOT.WorstProb.worstProb with cost ∥u−v∥\|u - v\|∥u−v∥, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], around the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.empiricalDistribution.
  • The distance (1) is Metric.infDist.
  • Binaries are reals with zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}.
  • Order statistics sort the multiset of values, so ties count with multiplicity.

Standing assumptions and pins in every statement:

  • N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 (p. 645);
  • P≥1P \ge 1P≥1 and bp≠0b_p \neq 0bp​=0, which (4) needs;
  • for every statement involving MMM, one bound ∣bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x∣/∥bp∥∗≤M|b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x|/\|b_p\|_* \le M∣bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x∣/∥bp​∥∗​≤M over x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X and all i,pi, pi,p. This is Remark 1's (10), taken uniform in iii. It replaces the compactness of X\mathcal XX assumed on p. 642, which is not assumed;
  • for the general-S\mathcal SS milestone (3), S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) open with nonempty complement.

In (17b), the printed "(5b)–(5d) and (5c)" is read as "(5b)–(5d) and (8c)", following the proof of Theorem 2 and (20b).

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out:

  • an empty or degenerate ball: N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 makes PN\mathbb P_NPN​ a probability measure inside its own ball;
  • a junk distance: the unsafe set is nonempty under the pins, so infDist never sees the empty set;
  • a junk order statistic: the rank kkk is below NNN;
  • a fixed norm;
  • a relaxation of zzz to [0,1][0,1][0,1], which is a different theorem.

Welcome contributions:

  • the 1-Wasserstein duality for indicator losses on empirical distributions;
  • order-statistic lemmas for the multiset sort;
  • the distance from a point to the complement of an open polyhedron in a normed space.

Selected references

  • N. Ho-Nguyen, F. Kılınç-Karzan, S. Küçükyavuz, D. Lee, Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs with right-hand side uncertainty under Wasserstein ambiguity, Mathematical Programming Ser. B 196 (2022) 641–672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y
  • Z. Chen, D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, Data-driven chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls, Operations Research (2024); preprint 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.00210
  • W. Xie, On distributionally robust chance constrained programs with Wasserstein distance, Mathematical Programming 186 (2021) 115–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying distributional model risk via optimal transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44 (2019) 565–600. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • A. Atamtürk, Strong formulations of robust mixed 0–1 programming, Mathematical Programming 108 (2006) 235–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0709-5
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 5: Worst-Case Displacements √δ G_δ Grow Monotonically in δ Along Straight LinesResearch Paper

Why radius sensitivity matters

A distributionally robust decision evaluates a rule against every data distribution within a specified transport budget of a baseline law. The budget is a modeling choice: increasing it expresses more uncertainty about the data. A robust objective value can increase with that budget, but the value alone does not describe how the adverse distribution changes. For a fixed linear decision, Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang identify the worst-case distribution and ask what happens to each observation as the budget increases. Their Theorem 7 gives a sample-wise answer in a small-radius regime: adverse observations move along straight lines, and their distance from the original observations grows monotonically.

This matters when a robust solution is interpreted through its adverse scenarios. The result says that two nearby ambiguity budgets do not produce unrelated worst-case data sets. They produce a coherent family of transported observations whose directions are determined by the sign of the loss derivative. The theorem is a structural property of an optimal-transport ambiguity set, beyond a bound on its optimal value. It appears in a paper that also develops dual formulas and iterative optimization schemes for the same model Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang, 2022.

Model and notation

Let XXX take values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd with baseline law P0P_0P0​. A decision β\betaβ belongs to a convex set B⊆RdB\subseteq\mathbb R^dB⊆Rd and incurs loss ℓ(β⊤X)\ell(\beta^\top X)ℓ(β⊤X). At each source point xxx, a positive-definite matrix A(x)A(x)A(x) defines the transport cost

c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).c(x,x')=(x-x')^\top A(x)(x-x').c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).

The matrix may depend on xxx, so movement can be cheaper in different directions and at different observations. The model requires lower semicontinuity of ccc and almost-sure lower and upper spectral bounds for A(x)A(x)A(x). A distribution PPP is within the ambiguity ball of radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0 when it can be coupled with P0P_0P0​ at expected cost at most δ\deltaδ. The worst-case objective is the supremum of EP[ℓ(β⊤X)]E_P[\ell(\beta^\top X)]EP​[ℓ(β⊤X)] over that ball. In Lean, the equivalent coupling formulation records a joint law π\piπ with first marginal P0P_0P0​, second marginal PPP, and cost at most δ\deltaδ.

The paper reduces the worst-case calculation to a dual objective fδ(β,λ)f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)fδ​(β,λ), where λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 prices the transport budget. Its pointwise term ℓrob(β,λ;x)\ell_{\rm rob}(\beta,\lambda;x)ℓrob​(β,λ;x) is the supremum over a scalar γ\gammaγ of the function F(γ,β,λ;x)F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;x)F(γ,β,λ;x) in display (7). The set of maximizing scalars is Γ∗(β,λ;x)\Gamma^*(\beta,\lambda;x)Γ∗(β,λ;x). A scalar maximizer Gδ(x)G_\delta(x)Gδ​(x) produces a transported observation

Xδ∗=x+δ Gδ(x)A(x)−1β.X^*_\delta=x+\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta(x)A(x)^{-1}\beta.Xδ∗​=x+δ​Gδ​(x)A(x)−1β.

Assumptions 2–4 require a convex loss with controlled growth, a fourth moment of P0P_0P0​, bounded second derivatives of the loss, a nondegenerate loss derivative, and compactness of BBB. The statement here also uses Assumption 5, local strong convexity with a positive-probability nondegeneracy condition. The paper’s proof of Theorem 7 uses that condition through its small-radius strong-convexity result Theorems 4 and 7.

Formalization targets

For each fixed β∈B∖{0}\beta\in B\setminus\{0\}β∈B∖{0}, the goal asserts that there is a common threshold δ1>0\delta_1>0δ1​>0 and a family GδG_\deltaGδ​ such that the law of Xδ∗X^*_\deltaXδ∗​ is the unique worst-case distribution for every 0<δ<δ10<\delta<\delta_10<δ<δ1​. For any pair 0<δ<δ′<δ10<\delta<\delta'<\delta_10<δ<δ′<δ1​, it asserts, P0P_0P0​-almost surely,

0<δ Gδ<δ′ Gδ′if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,δ′ Gδ′<δ Gδ<0if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,Gδ=0if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.\begin{aligned} 0&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<\sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'} &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)>0,\\ \sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'}&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)<0,\\ G_\delta&=0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)=0. \end{aligned}0δ′​Gδ′​Gδ​​<δ​Gδ​<δ′​Gδ′​<δ​Gδ​<0=0​​if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.​

Consequently,

∥Xδ∗−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗−X∥.\|X^*_\delta-X\|\le\|X^*_{\delta'}-X\|.∥Xδ∗​−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗​−X∥.

The goal keeps the uniqueness and primal attainment clauses together with these comparisons. The milestones follow the paper’s prerequisites: the optimizer and curvature bounds of Proposition 9, the unique worst-case law of Theorem 6(e), uniqueness of the dual minimizer at small radius, and the sign of the pointwise maximizer. Each has its own statement so solvers can use it elsewhere.

What the result establishes

The theorem gives a consistent interpretation of changes in the ambiguity radius. If the loss increases locally in the decision direction, an adverse observation moves farther in that direction; if the loss decreases, it moves farther in the opposite direction; at a stationary score it stays put. The corresponding displacement norm is monotone for each radius pair, almost surely. This is stronger than monotonicity of the worst-case objective value: it describes the geometry of a family of optimizers, not only their values.

The paper proves the result in §5.4. The work of this mission is to formalize its hypotheses, optimality claims, and sample-wise inequalities in Lean. The published ModelRiskOT.Duality coupling definitions already give a reusable primal interface; this mission adds the state-dependent quadratic cost, the scalar dual model, its small-radius regions, and the comparative-statics statements. The proof obligations remain open in this draft. Their formalization would also make the dual optimizer bounds and the deterministic transport representation reusable in later optimal-transport DRO developments.

Where the mathematical difficulty sits

The worst-case value being monotone in δ\deltaδ does not force a particular worst-case distribution, or each observation in one, to move monotonically. The theorem needs a unique worst-case law and a coherent choice of pointwise maximizers as δ\deltaδ varies. The scalar maximizer depends on both the radius and the dual price, while the optimal dual price itself changes with the radius. The paper’s small-radius conditions keep this joint variation controlled. Without uniqueness, two optimal laws could differ even at the same radius, and a sample-wise comparison would have no fixed object to compare.

The result also involves several layers of almost-sure reasoning. Spectral bounds on A(x)A(x)A(x) hold only outside a null set; the relevant maximizer and its transported law must be measurable enough to define pushforwards and expectations. These conditions must be carried through the theorem without silently replacing an almost-sure claim by a pointwise one.

Formalization scope

Vectors use EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and the baseline is a Borel probability measure. The decision set is convex and compact and is explicitly nonempty. Assumption 1 gives positive definiteness of A(x)A(x)A(x) everywhere, lower semicontinuity of the cost, and almost-sure uniform spectral bounds. The loss satisfies Assumptions 2–5. The fourth moment in Assumption 2 and the bounds on ℓ′′\ell''ℓ′′ control the integrals used by the dual theory. A positive ambiguity radius is required whenever its square root appears.

The dual terms ℓrob\ell_{\rm rob}ℓrob​ and fδf_\deltafδ​ use extended-real values, since the pointwise supremum can be infinite. The worst-case value is a supremum over feasible couplings, with signed loss integrated using the published extended-real integral. A graph coupling witnesses attainment, and every optimal coupling must have the same second marginal. This ties the family GδG_\deltaGδ​ to the actual worst-case distribution rather than an arbitrary monotone scalar field. Almost-everywhere measurability of GδG_\deltaGδ​ and the transport map is part of the conclusion.

The radius δ\deltaδ varies inside the goal. The threshold δ1\delta_1δ1​ is chosen before any radius pair, and the comparisons are stated almost surely for each pair. The paper prints Theorem 7 under Assumptions 1–4 while referring to δ1\delta_1δ1​ and invoking Theorem 4, which uses Assumption 5; this mission includes Assumption 5 explicitly. It also reads the singleton clause of Theorem 6(e) almost surely, because its threshold is an essential supremum, and uses a non-strict lower curvature bound in Proposition 9(b), as its proof permits. Contributions on the small-radius dual theory, measurable maximizers, primal attainment, and the radius comparisons are all within scope.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, and F. Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3.
  • J. Blanchet and K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2.
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Machine LearningNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Optimal Transport VIII: Sinkhorn's Scalings Contract by λ(K)² per Iteration in Hilbert's Projective MetricTextbook

Why Sinkhorn's algorithm needs a convergence rate

Sinkhorn's algorithm is the standard method for computing entropically regularized optimal transport between two histograms. It is used throughout machine learning, statistics, imaging and graphics because each iteration is two matrix–vector products followed by entrywise divisions, which parallelize on GPUs and differentiate easily. The same iteration, under the names matrix scaling, RAS or iterative proportional fitting, has been used since the 1930s in transportation planning, economics and contingency-table analysis. Whether the iteration converges, and how fast, determines how many iterations a practitioner must run and which stopping criteria are reliable.

This mission formalizes the global convergence analysis of Sinkhorn's algorithm as presented in Chapter 4 (§4.2, Remarks 4.12–4.14) of G. Peyré and M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport (2019).

Timeline. Sinkhorn (1964) proved that a positive matrix can be scaled to be doubly stochastic, and Sinkhorn and Knopp (1967) extended this to prescribed marginals. Birkhoff (1957) and Samelson (1957) independently showed that a positive linear map is a strict contraction of the positive cone for Hilbert's projective metric, with an explicit ratio. Franklin and Lorenz (1989) combined the two to prove that Sinkhorn's scalings converge linearly in Hilbert's metric at rate λ(K)2\lambda(K)^2λ(K)2. Linial, Samorodnitsky and Wigderson (1998) related the iteration to the permanent.

Setting

Fix n,m≥1n, m \ge 1n,m≥1, a matrix K∈Rn×mK \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times m}K∈Rn×m with positive entries (in the book, the Gibbs kernel Ki,j=e−Ci,j/εK_{i,j} = e^{-C_{i,j}/\varepsilon}Ki,j​=e−Ci,j​/ε), and vectors a∈Rna \in \mathbb{R}^na∈Rn, b∈Rmb \in \mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm with positive entries. Products ⊙\odot⊙ and quotients of vectors are entrywise. The regularized transport plan has the form P=diag(u)Kdiag(v)P = \mathrm{diag}(u)K\mathrm{diag}(v)P=diag(u)Kdiag(v), where the scalings u,vu, vu,v solve

u⊙(Kv)=a,v⊙(K⊤u)=b.(4.14)u \odot (Kv) = a, \qquad v \odot (K^\top u) = b. \tag{4.14}u⊙(Kv)=a,v⊙(K⊤u)=b.(4.14)

Sinkhorn's algorithm alternately enforces each equation:

v(0)=1m,u(ℓ+1)=aKv(ℓ),v(ℓ+1)=bK⊤u(ℓ+1).(4.15)v^{(0)} = \mathbb{1}_m,\qquad u^{(\ell+1)} = \frac{a}{Kv^{(\ell)}},\qquad v^{(\ell+1)} = \frac{b}{K^\top u^{(\ell+1)}}. \tag{4.15}v(0)=1m​,u(ℓ+1)=Kv(ℓ)a​,v(ℓ+1)=K⊤u(ℓ+1)b​.(4.15)

For vectors with positive entries, Hilbert's projective metric is

dH(u,u′)=log⁡max⁡i,juiuj′ujui′,d_{\mathcal H}(u,u') = \log\max_{i,j}\frac{u_i u'_j}{u_j u'_i},dH​(u,u′)=logi,jmax​uj​ui′​ui​uj′​​,

which vanishes exactly when uuu and u′u'u′ are proportional, and equals the variation seminorm ∥log⁡u−log⁡u′∥var\|\log u - \log u'\|_{\mathrm{var}}∥logu−logu′∥var​ with ∥f∥var=max⁡ifi−min⁡ifi\|f\|_{\mathrm{var}} = \max_i f_i - \min_i f_i∥f∥var​=maxi​fi​−mini​fi​. Birkhoff's constants of KKK are

η(K)=max⁡i,j,k,ℓKi,kKj,ℓKj,kKi,ℓ,λ(K)=η(K)−1η(K)+1.\eta(K) = \max_{i,j,k,\ell}\frac{K_{i,k}K_{j,\ell}}{K_{j,k}K_{i,\ell}},\qquad \lambda(K) = \frac{\sqrt{\eta(K)}-1}{\sqrt{\eta(K)}+1}.η(K)=i,j,k,ℓmax​Kj,k​Ki,ℓ​Ki,k​Kj,ℓ​​,λ(K)=η(K)​+1η(K)​−1​.

Write P(ℓ)=diag(u(ℓ))Kdiag(v(ℓ))P^{(\ell)} = \mathrm{diag}(u^{(\ell)})K\mathrm{diag}(v^{(\ell)})P(ℓ)=diag(u(ℓ))Kdiag(v(ℓ)) and P⋆=diag(u⋆)Kdiag(v⋆)P^\star = \mathrm{diag}(u^\star)K\mathrm{diag}(v^\star)P⋆=diag(u⋆)Kdiag(v⋆) for a positive solution (u⋆,v⋆)(u^\star, v^\star)(u⋆,v⋆) of (4.14).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (Franklin–Lorenz)

For every ℓ\ellℓ,

dH(v(ℓ),v⋆)≤λ(K)2ℓ dH(v(0),v⋆),dH(u(ℓ+1),u⋆)≤λ(K)2ℓ+1 dH(v(0),v⋆),d_{\mathcal H}(v^{(\ell)}, v^\star) \le \lambda(K)^{2\ell}\, d_{\mathcal H}(v^{(0)}, v^\star),\qquad d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell+1)}, u^\star) \le \lambda(K)^{2\ell+1}\, d_{\mathcal H}(v^{(0)}, v^\star),dH​(v(ℓ),v⋆)≤λ(K)2ℓdH​(v(0),v⋆),dH​(u(ℓ+1),u⋆)≤λ(K)2ℓ+1dH​(v(0),v⋆),

so both distances tend to 000; for ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1,

dH(u(ℓ),u⋆)≤dH(P(ℓ)1m,a)1−λ(K)2,max⁡i,j∣log⁡Pi,j(ℓ)−log⁡Pi,j⋆∣≤dH(u(ℓ),u⋆)+dH(v(ℓ),v⋆),d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell)}, u^\star) \le \frac{d_{\mathcal H}(P^{(\ell)}\mathbb{1}_m, a)}{1-\lambda(K)^2},\qquad \max_{i,j}\big|\log P^{(\ell)}_{i,j} - \log P^\star_{i,j}\big| \le d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell)},u^\star) + d_{\mathcal H}(v^{(\ell)},v^\star),dH​(u(ℓ),u⋆)≤1−λ(K)2dH​(P(ℓ)1m​,a)​,i,jmax​​logPi,j(ℓ)​−logPi,j⋆​​≤dH​(u(ℓ),u⋆)+dH​(v(ℓ),v⋆),

and for ℓ≥0\ell \ge 0ℓ≥0 the mirrored bound for v(ℓ)v^{(\ell)}v(ℓ) with the half-step coupling diag(u(ℓ+1))Kdiag(v(ℓ))\mathrm{diag}(u^{(\ell+1)})K\mathrm{diag}(v^{(\ell)})diag(u(ℓ+1))Kdiag(v(ℓ)). The book writes the rate as O(λ(K)2ℓ)O(\lambda(K)^{2\ell})O(λ(K)2ℓ); the constants stated are those its proof yields.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (4.21): dH(u,u′)=∥log⁡u−log⁡u′∥vard_{\mathcal H}(u,u') = \|\log u - \log u'\|_{\mathrm{var}}dH​(u,u′)=∥logu−logu′∥var​.
  2. Remark 4.12: dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​ is a distance on rays (triangle inequality; zero exactly on proportional vectors).
  3. Invariances: dH(v,v′)=dH(v/v′,1)=dH(1/v,1/v′)d_{\mathcal H}(v,v') = d_{\mathcal H}(v/v',\mathbb{1}) = d_{\mathcal H}(\mathbb{1}/v,\mathbb{1}/v')dH​(v,v′)=dH​(v/v′,1)=dH​(1/v,1/v′) and invariance under positive diagonal scaling.
  4. Theorem 4.1 (Birkhoff–Hopf): dH(Kv,Kv′)≤λ(K) dH(v,v′)d_{\mathcal H}(Kv,Kv') \le \lambda(K)\,d_{\mathcal H}(v,v')dH​(Kv,Kv′)≤λ(K)dH​(v,v′) and λ(K)<1\lambda(K) < 1λ(K)<1.
  5. One half-step contracts by λ(K)\lambda(K)λ(K): dH(u(ℓ+1),u⋆)≤λ(K) dH(v(ℓ),v⋆)d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell+1)},u^\star) \le \lambda(K)\,d_{\mathcal H}(v^{(\ell)},v^\star)dH​(u(ℓ+1),u⋆)≤λ(K)dH​(v(ℓ),v⋆), and the vvv-analogue.
  6. The display behind (4.23): dH(u(ℓ),u⋆)≤dH(a,u(ℓ)⊙Kv(ℓ))+λ(K)2dH(u(ℓ),u⋆)d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell)},u^\star) \le d_{\mathcal H}(a, u^{(\ell)}\odot Kv^{(\ell)}) + \lambda(K)^2 d_{\mathcal H}(u^{(\ell)},u^\star)dH​(u(ℓ),u⋆)≤dH​(a,u(ℓ)⊙Kv(ℓ))+λ(K)2dH​(u(ℓ),u⋆), and its mirror.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.2 gives a global linear rate that holds from the first iteration, independent of the starting point, with a ratio computable from KKK alone. Through (4.21) the rate transfers to the dual potentials εlog⁡u(ℓ)\varepsilon\log u^{(\ell)}εlogu(ℓ), and the bounds (4.23) turn the marginal violations P(ℓ)1mP^{(\ell)}\mathbb{1}_mP(ℓ)1m​ versus aaa — which are computed anyway — into certified stopping criteria. Theorem 4.1 alone also yields a quantitative Perron–Frobenius theorem (Remark 4.13).

Formalizing it. All results here are classical and proved in the literature (Birkhoff 1957; Franklin–Lorenz 1989); Theorem 4.1 is quoted by the book without proof. To our knowledge neither Hilbert's projective metric on the positive cone, the Birkhoff–Hopf theorem, nor the convergence rate of Sinkhorn's algorithm has a machine-checked proof in Mathlib. The mission produces a reusable development of dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​ and Birkhoff's contraction theorem, and a certified rate and stopping rule for the most widely used optimal-transport solver.

Difficulty

Milestones 1–3 and 5–6 are finite manipulations of maxima of ratios. The central difficulty is Theorem 4.1. The obvious argument — bound (Kv)i/(Kv′)i(Kv)_i/(Kv')_i(Kv)i​/(Kv′)i​ entrywise by max⁡kvk/vk′\max_k v_k/v'_kmaxk​vk​/vk′​ — only shows that KKK is non-expansive (λ≤1\lambda \le 1λ≤1); it loses the strict contraction entirely. The sharp ratio (η−1)/(η+1)(\sqrt{\eta}-1)/(\sqrt{\eta}+1)(η​−1)/(η​+1) depends on how KKK acts on the two vectors jointly, which the entrywise argument does not see. The book quotes the theorem without proof, so the argument has to be supplied from Birkhoff's original paper or later expositions.

Formalization scope

Lean namespace CompOT.Sinkhorn. Indices are 000-based (Fin n, Fin m); vectors are functions Fin n → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ, and ⊙\odot⊙ and /// are the pointwise operations on functions. dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​, η\etaη and ∥⋅∥var\|\cdot\|_{\mathrm{var}}∥⋅∥var​ use real iSup/iInf over the finite index sets. Every theorem assumes 0<n0 < n0<n, 0<m0 < m0<m and positive entries for KKK, aaa, bbb and every vector passed to dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​, which excludes Lean's junk values for division by zero and logarithms of non-positive numbers. Sinkhorn's algorithm is a run predicate (IsSinkhornRun) stating the recursion (4.15) with v(0)=1mv^{(0)} = \mathbb{1}_mv(0)=1m​; u(0)u^{(0)}u(0) is not an iterate and is unconstrained. The solution (u⋆,v⋆)(u^\star, v^\star)(u⋆,v⋆) is any positive solution of (4.14), taken as a hypothesis (it exists iff ∑iai=∑jbj\sum_i a_i = \sum_j b_j∑i​ai​=∑j​bj​); the book's histograms are probability vectors, but only positivity is used. P⋆P^\starP⋆ in (4.24) is diag(u⋆)Kdiag(v⋆)\mathrm{diag}(u^\star)K\mathrm{diag}(v^\star)diag(u⋆)Kdiag(v⋆), the solution of the regularized problem (4.2) by Proposition 4.3.

Deviations from the print, all disclosed in the items: the O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) of (4.22) is replaced by the proof's explicit constants; the limit (u(ℓ),v(ℓ))→(u⋆,v⋆)(u^{(\ell)}, v^{(\ell)}) \to (u^\star, v^\star)(u(ℓ),v(ℓ))→(u⋆,v⋆) is stated as dH→0d_{\mathcal H} \to 0dH​→0, since scalings are determined only up to (ru,v/r)(ru, v/r)(ru,v/r); the second inequality of (4.23) is false as printed (its right side is 000 for ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1) and is stated with the half-step coupling the mirrored proof gives.

A definition of dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​ without the logarithm, or as a maximum of single-entry ratios, would make the statements different theorems; the definition here is the book's, and (4.21) is a milestone checking it against the variation seminorm. A run predicate not tied to KKK, aaa, bbb, or an unsatisfiable one, is ruled out: the predicate is the recursion itself and is inhabited for every KKK, aaa, bbb.

Contributions welcome: the metric properties of dHd_{\mathcal H}dH​ (reusable for Perron–Frobenius and nonlinear consensus), a proof of the Birkhoff–Hopf theorem, and positivity lemmas for Sinkhorn iterates.

Selected references

  • G. Peyré, M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6):355–607, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000073 (§4.2, pp. 431–443)
  • J. Franklin, J. Lorenz, On the scaling of multidimensional matrices, Linear Algebra and its Applications 114/115:717–735, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-3795(89)90490-4
  • G. Birkhoff, Extensions of Jentzsch's theorem, Transactions of the AMS 85(1):219–227, 1957. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1957-0087058-6
  • H. Samelson, On the Perron–Frobenius theorem, Michigan Mathematical Journal 4(1):57–59, 1957. https://doi.org/10.1307/mmj/1028990177
  • R. Sinkhorn, A relationship between arbitrary positive matrices and doubly stochastic matrices, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35(2):876–879, 1964. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177703591
  • N. Linial, A. Samorodnitsky, A. Wigderson, A deterministic strongly polynomial algorithm for matrix scaling and approximate permanents, STOC 1998. https://doi.org/10.1145/276698.276880
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On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 1: An Optimal Martingale Transport Plan Is Concentrated on a Borel Set No Finite Rerouting ImprovesResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical optimal transport, a transport plan that minimizes the total cost is characterized through its support: an optimal plan is ccc-cyclically monotone, meaning that no finite collection of its transported particles can be re-paired more cheaply (Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, 2009, Ch. 4–5). This pointwise criterion is how most structural results in optimal transport are proved: it is what turns a global minimization over measures into a statement about finitely many points.

The martingale transport problem adds a constraint motivated by mathematical finance: the plan must be the law of a one-step martingale (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y) with given marginals X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν. Its value gives model-independent bounds on the price of an exotic option whose payoff is the cost function, given the prices of all vanilla options at two dates (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices, Finance Stoch. 2013). Because the martingale constraint ties together all points with the same first coordinate, the classical re-pairing argument does not carry over: swapping two destinations generally destroys the martingale property.

M. Beiglböck and N. Juillet (On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016; arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove a martingale replacement for ccc-cyclical monotonicity, the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11). It is the tool from which they derive the left-monotone structure of optimal plans, the uniqueness of the left-curtain coupling as optimizer for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, and the support bounds for optimizers. This mission is the first of a series formalizing that paper.

Setting

All measures live on R\mathbb RR or R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras. Two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R.

A transport plan is a measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ and second marginal ν\nuν. It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if under π\piπ the conditional mean of yyy given xxx equals xxx; equivalently,

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho .∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.

A cost is a Borel function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R satisfying the sufficient integrability condition c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) with a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then the cost of a plan, ∫c dπ\int c\,d\pi∫cdπ, is well defined in (−∞,+∞](-\infty,+\infty](−∞,+∞]. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if ∫c dπ≤∫c dπ′\int c\,d\pi\le\int c\,d\pi'∫cdπ≤∫cdπ′ for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν), and it leads to finite costs if ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞.

A measure α′\alpha'α′ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a competitor of α\alphaα (Definition 1.10) if it has the same two marginals as α\alphaα and the same conditional barycentres: ∫y dαx(y)=∫y dαx′(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)=\int y\,d\alpha'_x(y)∫ydαx​(y)=∫ydαx′​(y) for almost every xxx, where (αx)(\alpha_x)(αx​), (αx′)(\alpha'_x)(αx′​) are disintegrations with respect to the first marginal. A competitor redistributes the mass of α\alphaα in a way that a martingale plan could absorb: replacing a piece α\alphaα of a martingale plan by α′\alpha'α′ keeps both marginals and the martingale property.

Formalization targets

Goal: the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11, p. 8)

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be probability measures, ccc a Borel cost satisfying the sufficient integrability condition, and π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) optimal with ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞. Then there is a Borel set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 with π(Γ)=1\pi(\Gamma)=1π(Γ)=1 such that

∫c dα≤∫c dα′for every finitely supported α with spt⁡α⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.\int c\,d\alpha\le\int c\,d\alpha'\quad\text{for every finitely supported }\alpha\text{ with }\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gamma\text{ and every competitor }\alpha'\text{ of }\alpha .∫cdα≤∫cdα′for every finitely supported α with sptα⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.

The set Γ\GammaΓ is chosen once, before α\alphaα; the quantifier order is the content.

Milestones

The milestones are the steps of the paper's proof (§3, pp. 16–19), in attack order:

  1. Theorem 3.1 (p. 17), Kellerer's duality in the form of Beiglböck–Goldstern–Maresch–Schachermayer: for a Polish probability space (Z,ζ)(Z,\zeta)(Z,ζ) and a Borel M⊆ZnM\subseteq Z^nM⊆Zn, either M⊆⋃iMiM\subseteq\bigcup_i M_iM⊆⋃i​Mi​ with ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0, or some measure γ\gammaγ with γ(M)>0\gamma(M)>0γ(M)>0 has all marginals ≤ζ\le\zeta≤ζ.
  2. The set M⊆(R2)nM\subseteq(\mathbb R^2)^nM⊆(R2)n of nnn-tuples carrying a non-optimal finite measure is Borel (p. 17).
  3. In case (1), a Borel Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ of full π\piπ-measure supports no improvable α\alphaα with ∣spt⁡α∣≤n|\operatorname{spt}\alpha|\le n∣sptα∣≤n (p. 18).
  4. Every finitely supported α\alphaα has a cost-minimizing competitor (p. 18).
  5. If ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π and a competitor ω′\omega'ω′ is cheaper than ω\omegaω, then π−ω+ω′\pi-\omega+\omega'π−ω+ω′ is a cheaper martingale plan (p. 18).
  6. For an optimal π\piπ of finite cost, case (2) cannot occur (pp. 18–19).
  7. Γ=⋂nΓn\Gamma=\bigcap_n\Gamma_nΓ=⋂n​Γn​ is as required (p. 17).

Significance

The result. The variational lemma converts optimality of a martingale plan, a property of a measure, into a condition on finite configurations of points in its support. In the paper it is applied, together with a lemma on accumulation points of sections (Lemma 3.2), to show that optimizers for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex are left-monotone, which by the paper's Theorem 1.5 identifies them as the left-curtain coupling; it also yields the bound ∣spt⁡πx∣≤k|\operatorname{spt}\pi_x|\le k∣sptπx​∣≤k of Theorem 7.1 and the two-graph structure of the optimizers for ±∣y−x∣\pm|y-x|±∣y−x∣. Later missions of this series use it as a milestone. Its converse, under continuity assumptions, is the separate Lemma A.2 of the paper's appendix.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization needs a usable form of Kellerer's duality for multi-marginal problems, which is not in Mathlib, and the bookkeeping that finite rearrangements of a martingale plan stay in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). Both are reusable well beyond this paper: Kellerer's theorem underlies the analogous results for classical, multi-marginal and martingale transport.

Difficulty

The classical proof of ccc-cyclical monotonicity perturbs an optimal plan by moving a small amount of mass around a finite cycle of its support points. For martingale plans this fails: the perturbation must preserve the conditional barycentre of every xxx, and mass sitting at isolated points of a non-atomic plan cannot be moved without moving mass at uncountably many other points. The proof therefore cannot argue point by point. It works with whole families of bad configurations at once, which requires the measure-theoretic duality of Kellerer (resting on Choquet's capacitability theorem) and a measurable choice of an optimal competitor for each configuration. Proving that the set of bad configurations is Borel, and that a positive-mass family of them can be glued into a cheaper competitor ω′\omega'ω′ of a piece ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π, is the technical core.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). Costs and integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published definition ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); no Bochner integral of a possibly non-integrable function is compared. Martingale plans and competitors are encoded through test functions ρ(x)\rho(x)ρ(x) (the paper's characterization (4), p. 10) instead of disintegrations. A finitely supported finite measure is written ∑s∈Swsδs\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_s∑s∈S​ws​δs​ with SSS a finite set and weights ws≥0w_s\ge0ws​≥0; this covers every such measure, and masses are taken finite. (R2)n(\mathbb R^2)^n(R2)n is Fin n → ℝ × ℝ.

Committed conventions and disclosed additions:

  • the goal's hypothesis "leads to finite costs" is ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞; without it, a cost under which every plan has infinite cost makes optimality empty;
  • Theorem 3.1 is stated for Borel MMM, the case proved in the cited source and the only case the paper uses; ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0 is the outer measure, since the projections need not be Borel;
  • in milestone 3, Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ is a Borel subset of the paper's R2∖N\mathbb R^2\setminus NR2∖N of full measure, because NNN need not be Borel;
  • milestone 4 states, for the uniform measure αp\alpha_pαp​ on the points of an nnn-tuple ppp, both that an optimal competitor αp′\alpha'_pαp′​ exists and that it can be chosen measurably in ppp (p. 18), with Mathlib's σ-algebra on the space of measures.

A formalization in which Γ\GammaΓ is empty or π\piπ-null, or in which Γ\GammaΓ is allowed to depend on α\alphaα, is trivial and is ruled out by the statement: π(Γc)=0\pi(\Gamma^c)=0π(Γc)=0 and ∃Γ ∀α\exists\Gamma\,\forall\alpha∃Γ∀α. The competitor α′\alpha'α′ ranges over all measures, not only finitely supported ones.

Welcome contributions: a general form of Kellerer's duality theorem (milestone 1), the Borel-measurability of the bad set, and the gluing step of milestone 6.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
  • H. G. Kellerer, Duality theorems for marginal problems, Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 67(4), 399–432, 1984. doi:10.1007/BF00532047
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, Springer, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Control TheoryOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering 1: Minimax MMSE Estimation over a Gaussian Wasserstein Ball Is a Finite Convex SDP with an Affine Robust EstimatorResearch Paper

Motivation

The Kalman filter estimates the hidden state of a linear system from noisy observations. At every step it solves a minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation problem: given a joint normal distribution of a signal xxx and an observation yyy, find the estimator ψ(y)\psi(y)ψ(y) minimizing E[∥x−ψ(y)∥2]\mathbb E[\|x-\psi(y)\|^2]E[∥x−ψ(y)∥2]. The answer, the conditional mean, is optimal only if the model distribution is correct, and in practice the system matrices and noise covariances are estimated and misspecified.

Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Nguyen, Kuhn and Mohajerin Esfahani (arXiv:1809.08830, NeurIPS 2018) replace the single model by a set of plausible models: all normal distributions within type-2 Wasserstein distance ρ\rhoρ of a nominal normal distribution. The estimator is then chosen to minimize the worst-case mean square error over this set. Their Theorem 2.5 shows that this robust estimation problem, although posed over an infinite-dimensional space of estimators and a nonconvex set of distributions, has the same value as a finite convex program over covariance matrices, and that the robust estimator is affine. Applied at every time step, this yields the Wasserstein distributionally robust Kalman filter of the paper's §4.

This mission formalizes Theorem 2.5 together with the minimax theorem (Theorem 2.3) and the lemmas of its proof.

Setting

Let n,m≥0n, m \ge 0n,m≥0 and d=n+md = n+md=n+m. A point of Rd\mathbb R^dRd is z=[x;y]z = [x; y]z=[x;y] with signal x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn and observation y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm. A symmetric matrix S∈Rd×dS \in \mathbb R^{d\times d}S∈Rd×d is partitioned as S=[SxxSxySyxSyy]S = \begin{bmatrix} S_{xx} & S_{xy}\\ S_{yx} & S_{yy}\end{bmatrix}S=[Sxx​Syx​​Sxy​Syy​​]. S+d\mathbb S^d_+S+d​ (S++d\mathbb S^d_{++}S++d​) denotes the positive semidefinite (definite) matrices, A⪰BA \succeq BA⪰B means A−B∈S+dA-B\in\mathbb S^d_+A−B∈S+d​, ⟨A,B⟩=Tr⁡[A⊤B]\langle A,B\rangle = \operatorname{Tr}[A^\top B]⟨A,B⟩=Tr[A⊤B], and A1/2A^{1/2}A1/2 is the positive semidefinite square root of A⪰0A\succeq 0A⪰0.

Normal distributions. Nd(c,S)\mathcal N_d(c,S)Nd​(c,S) is the normal distribution on Rd\mathbb R^dRd with mean ccc and covariance S∈S+dS\in\mathbb S^d_+S∈S+d​; singular SSS is allowed. Nd\mathcal N_dNd​ is the set of all of them.

Wasserstein distance. For distributions Q1,Q2\mathbb Q_1,\mathbb Q_2Q1​,Q2​ on Rd\mathbb R^dRd,

W2(Q1,Q2)=inf⁡π(∫∥z1−z2∥2 π(dz1,dz2))1/2,W_2(\mathbb Q_1,\mathbb Q_2) = \inf_{\pi} \Bigl(\int \|z_1-z_2\|^2\,\pi(dz_1,dz_2)\Bigr)^{1/2},W2​(Q1​,Q2​)=πinf​(∫∥z1​−z2​∥2π(dz1​,dz2​))1/2,

the infimum ranging over all distributions π\piπ on Rd×Rd\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^dRd×Rd with marginals Q1\mathbb Q_1Q1​ and Q2\mathbb Q_2Q2​.

Ambiguity set. Fix μ=[μx;μy]∈Rd\mu = [\mu_x;\mu_y]\in\mathbb R^dμ=[μx​;μy​]∈Rd, Σ∈S++d\Sigma\in\mathbb S^d_{++}Σ∈S++d​, the nominal distribution P=Nd(μ,Σ)\mathbb P=\mathcal N_d(\mu,\Sigma)P=Nd​(μ,Σ) and a radius ρ≥0\rho\ge 0ρ≥0. The Wasserstein ambiguity set is

P={Q∈Nd:W2(Q,P)≤ρ}.\mathcal P = \{\mathbb Q\in\mathcal N_d : W_2(\mathbb Q,\mathbb P)\le\rho\}.P={Q∈Nd​:W2​(Q,P)≤ρ}.

Robust estimation. Let L\mathcal LL be the set of all measurable functions ψ:Rm→Rn\psi:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R^nψ:Rm→Rn. The distributionally robust MMSE problem is

inf⁡ψ∈L sup⁡Q∈P EQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2],(2)\inf_{\psi\in\mathcal L}\ \sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathcal P}\ \mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}\bigl[\|x-\psi(y)\|^2\bigr], \tag{2}ψ∈Linf​ Q∈Psup​ EQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2],(2)

and a distributionally robust MMSE estimator is a ψ\psiψ attaining the outer infimum. Nature's problem exchanges the two optimizations; a Q⋆∈P\mathbb Q^\star\in\mathcal PQ⋆∈P attaining its outer supremum is a least favorable prior.

The finite program. With σ‾=λmin⁡(Σ)\underline\sigma = \lambda_{\min}(\Sigma)σ​=λmin​(Σ), program (5) maximizes f(S)=Tr⁡[Sxx−SxySyy−1Syx]f(S)=\operatorname{Tr}[S_{xx}-S_{xy}S_{yy}^{-1}S_{yx}]f(S)=Tr[Sxx​−Sxy​Syy−1​Syx​] over S∈S+dS\in\mathbb S^d_+S∈S+d​ (with Sxx∈S+nS_{xx}\in\mathbb S^n_+Sxx​∈S+n​, Syy∈S+mS_{yy}\in\mathbb S^m_+Syy​∈S+m​) subject to

Tr⁡[S+Σ−2(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2]≤ρ2,S⪰σ‾Id.\operatorname{Tr}\bigl[S+\Sigma-2(\Sigma^{1/2}S\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}\bigr]\le\rho^2,\qquad S\succeq\underline\sigma I_d .Tr[S+Σ−2(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2]≤ρ2,S⪰σ​Id​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.5 (p. 3)

  1. The optimal value of (2) equals the optimal value of (5).
  2. If S⋆S^\starS⋆ is optimal in (5), then
ψ⋆(y)=Sxy⋆(Syy⋆)−1(y−μy)+μx\psi^\star(y) = S^\star_{xy}(S^\star_{yy})^{-1}(y-\mu_y)+\mu_xψ⋆(y)=Sxy⋆​(Syy⋆​)−1(y−μy​)+μx​

is a distributionally robust MMSE estimator. 3. For the same S⋆S^\starS⋆, Q⋆=Nd(μ,S⋆)\mathbb Q^\star=\mathcal N_d(\mu,S^\star)Q⋆=Nd​(μ,S⋆) lies in P\mathcal PP and is a least favorable prior.

Existence and uniqueness of an optimal S⋆S^\starS⋆ are not part of the statement.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  • Proposition 2.2 (Gelbrich formula): for Σ1,Σ2⪰0\Sigma_1,\Sigma_2\succeq 0Σ1​,Σ2​⪰0,
W2(Nd(μ1,Σ1),Nd(μ2,Σ2))=∥μ1−μ2∥2+Tr⁡[Σ1+Σ2−2(Σ21/2Σ1Σ21/2)1/2].W_2\bigl(\mathcal N_d(\mu_1,\Sigma_1),\mathcal N_d(\mu_2,\Sigma_2)\bigr)=\sqrt{\|\mu_1-\mu_2\|^2+\operatorname{Tr}\bigl[\Sigma_1+\Sigma_2-2(\Sigma_2^{1/2}\Sigma_1\Sigma_2^{1/2})^{1/2}\bigr]}.W2​(Nd​(μ1​,Σ1​),Nd​(μ2​,Σ2​))=∥μ1​−μ2​∥2+Tr[Σ1​+Σ2​−2(Σ21/2​Σ1​Σ21/2​)1/2]​.
  • Lemma A.1: the closed form of sup⁡S⪰0⟨D,S⟩−γTr⁡[S−2(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2]\sup_{S\succeq0}\langle D,S\rangle-\gamma\operatorname{Tr}[S-2(\Sigma^{1/2}S\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}]supS⪰0​⟨D,S⟩−γTr[S−2(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2] and its unique maximizer.
  • (A.1b): under a fixed normal distribution, affine estimators y↦Gy+gy\mapsto Gy+gy↦Gy+g achieve the minimum mean square error over L\mathcal LL.
  • Theorem 2.3 (minimax theorem): inf⁡ψ∈Lsup⁡Q∈PEQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2]=sup⁡Q∈Pinf⁡ψ∈LEQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2]\inf_{\psi\in\mathcal L}\sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathcal P}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}[\|x-\psi(y)\|^2] = \sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathcal P}\inf_{\psi\in\mathcal L}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}[\|x-\psi(y)\|^2]infψ∈L​supQ∈P​EQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2]=supQ∈P​infψ∈L​EQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥2].
  • Lemma A.2: the maximizer of ⟨S,D⟩\langle S,D\rangle⟨S,D⟩ under the Wasserstein-type trace constraint, and S⋆⪰σ‾IdS^\star\succeq\underline\sigma I_dS⋆⪰σ​Id​.
  • (A.6): for S≻0S\succ0S≻0, min⁡G⟨[In−G−G⊤G⊤G],S⟩=f(S)\min_G\bigl\langle\begin{bmatrix}I_n&-G\\-G^\top&G^\top G\end{bmatrix},S\bigr\rangle=f(S)minG​⟨[In​−G⊤​−GG⊤G​],S⟩=f(S), uniquely at G⋆=SxySyy−1G^\star=S_{xy}S_{yy}^{-1}G⋆=Sxy​Syy−1​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.5 gives the robust estimator in closed form from one optimal covariance matrix, and identifies the least favorable distribution as a normal distribution with the nominal mean. Together with Theorem 2.3 it shows that the pair (ψ⋆,Q⋆)(\psi^\star,\mathbb Q^\star)(ψ⋆,Q⋆) is a saddle point: the robust estimator is the Bayesian estimator for the least favorable prior. For ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0 the program has the single feasible point Σ\SigmaΣ and the estimator reduces to the classical conditional mean, so the theorem contains the Kalman update as a special case. The finite program is what makes the robust filter of §4 computable; the paper's §3 (formalized in the companion mission of this series) solves it with a Frank–Wolfe method.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. No part of it is machine-checked yet. The Gelbrich formula for normal distributions (Proposition 2.2) is cited from the literature and has no formal proof in Mathlib; neither does Lemma A.1, cited from earlier work of the same authors. A closely related statement for a Wasserstein ball over all distributions around an elliptical nominal (Kuhn et al. 2019, Theorem 25) is posed on the platform as WassersteinDRO.Shrinkage.distributionally_robust_mmse_estimator; it is a different theorem, since the ambiguity set there is convex and contains non-normal distributions.

Difficulty

The ambiguity set P\mathcal PP is not convex, because a mixture of normal distributions is generally not normal. The standard route to a minimax equality, Sion's theorem, needs convexity on nature's side and therefore does not apply to (2) directly; the obvious attempt to interchange the infimum and the supremum fails at this step. The space L\mathcal LL of measurable estimators is infinite-dimensional, and the Wasserstein constraint is an infimum over couplings, so a proof must pass to finite-dimensional descriptions on both sides (means and covariances for Q\mathbb QQ, affine maps for ψ\psiψ) and justify each passage. The matrix-analytic parts involve the nonlinear map S↦(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2S\mapsto(\Sigma^{1/2}S\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}S↦(Σ1/2SΣ1/2)1/2, for which Mathlib has square roots but little calculus.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n ⊕ Fin m); the Sum.inl coordinates are xxx, the Sum.inr coordinates are yyy, and the blocks of a matrix are toBlocks₁₁, toBlocks₁₂, toBlocks₂₁, toBlocks₂₂.
  • Nd(c,S)\mathcal N_d(c,S)Nd​(c,S) is Mathlib's multivariateGaussian c S with S.PosSemidef; only the nominal Σ\SigmaΣ is required to be positive definite.
  • W2W_2W2​ is the published coupling-based WassersteinDRO.Shrinkage.wassersteinDistance 2 in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The ambiguity set is defined through it, not through the Gelbrich formula; the formula is Proposition 2.2, a milestone.
  • Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with no integrability guard. A non-integrable estimator therefore has infinite risk and cannot lower the infimum through a junk value.
  • The values of (2) and of nature's problem are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the value of (5) is the published sdpValue in EReal, and the two are compared through the coercion.
  • σ‾\underline\sigmaσ​ is passed as a real number that is the least eigenvalue of Σ\SigmaΣ.
  • "Equivalent" in Theorem 2.5 is read as the three claims above. A version that asserts only equality of values, or optimality of ψ⋆\psi^\starψ⋆ among affine estimators only, is weaker than the theorem and is not the goal.
  • Lemma A.2 carries the added hypothesis ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, without which its algebraic equation has no admissible root.

A complete development needs the Gelbrich formula for (possibly degenerate) normal distributions, conditional means of jointly normal vectors, a minimax theorem for convex–concave functions on compact sets, Lagrangian duality for a convex semidefinite program, and calculus of the positive semidefinite square root. The first three are reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them as separate results are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering, NeurIPS 2018; arXiv:1809.08830v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.08830
  • M. Gelbrich, On a formula for the L² Wasserstein metric between measures on Euclidean and Hilbert spaces, Mathematische Nachrichten 147, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1002/mana.19901470121
  • V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Distributionally robust inverse covariance estimation, arXiv:1802.01981, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01981
  • D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, V. A. Nguyen, S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization: theory and applications in machine learning, INFORMS TutORials, 2019; arXiv:1908.08729. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08729
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Convex Optimization Theory, Athena Scientific, 2009.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering 2: The Bisection Algorithm Returns a Feasible, ε-Suboptimal Solution of the Frank–Wolfe Direction-Finding SubproblemResearch Paper

Motivation

A Kalman filter estimates the hidden state xxx of a linear system from observations yyy, assuming the joint law of z=(x,y)z = (x, y)z=(x,y) is a known Gaussian. When that law is only approximately known, Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Nguyen, Kuhn and Mohajerin Esfahani (arXiv:1809.08830v3, NeurIPS 2018) replace it by the worst Gaussian within a 2-Wasserstein ball of radius ρ\rhoρ around a nominal Gaussian with covariance Σ\SigmaΣ. Their Theorem 2.5 shows that the resulting minimax estimation problem is equivalent to a finite nonlinear semidefinite program, program (5), whose objective is f(S)=Tr[Sxx−SxySyy−1Syx]f(S) = \mathrm{Tr}[S_{xx} - S_{xy}S_{yy}^{-1}S_{yx}]f(S)=Tr[Sxx​−Sxy​Syy−1​Syx​].

Each step of the robust filter solves program (5), so the filter is only practical if (5) can be solved quickly. The paper solves it with a Frank–Wolfe method (Algorithm 2), which avoids projections by replacing the objective with its linearization at the current iterate and maximizing that linear function over the original feasible set. That inner problem, the direction-finding subproblem, is again a nonlinear SDP. The paper's Algorithm 1 solves it by a one-dimensional bisection, and Theorem 3.2 states that this bisection returns a feasible solution whose objective value is within a prescribed tolerance ε\varepsilonε of the optimum. This mission formalizes that guarantee.

Setting

Fix dimensions n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 (state) and mmm (observation), d=n+md = n + md=n+m, and index coordinates so that the first nnn belong to xxx. Let S+d\mathbb{S}^d_+S+d​ and S++d\mathbb{S}^d_{++}S++d​ denote the positive semidefinite and positive definite d×dd\times dd×d matrices, and ⟨A,B⟩=Tr[A⊤B]\langle A, B\rangle = \mathrm{Tr}[A^\top B]⟨A,B⟩=Tr[A⊤B] the trace inner product. The data are a nominal covariance Σ∈S++d\Sigma \in \mathbb{S}^d_{++}Σ∈S++d​ with smallest eigenvalue σ‾=λmin⁡(Σ)\underline\sigma = \lambda_{\min}(\Sigma)σ​=λmin​(Σ), a radius ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, a tolerance ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0, and the current Frank–Wolfe iterate S∈S+dS \in \mathbb{S}^d_+S∈S+d​, written in blocks Sxx,Sxy,Syx,SyyS_{xx}, S_{xy}, S_{yx}, S_{yy}Sxx​,Sxy​,Syx​,Syy​.

The gradient matrix is

D=∇f(S)=[In,−G]⊤[In,−G],G=SxySyy−1,D = \nabla f(S) = [I_n, -G]^\top [I_n, -G], \qquad G = S_{xy}S_{yy}^{-1},D=∇f(S)=[In​,−G]⊤[In​,−G],G=Sxy​Syy−1​,

which is positive semidefinite and nonzero. The direction-finding subproblem (7b) is

max⁡L⪰σ‾Id ⟨L,D⟩s.t.Tr[L+Σ−2(Σ1/2LΣ1/2)1/2]≤ρ2;\max_{L \succeq \underline\sigma I_d}\ \langle L, D\rangle \quad \text{s.t.}\quad \mathrm{Tr}\Big[L + \Sigma - 2\big(\Sigma^{1/2} L \Sigma^{1/2}\big)^{1/2}\Big] \le \rho^2 ;L⪰σ​Id​max​ ⟨L,D⟩s.t.Tr[L+Σ−2(Σ1/2LΣ1/2)1/2]≤ρ2;

its constraint says that the Gaussian with covariance LLL lies within Wasserstein distance ρ\rhoρ of the nominal Gaussian, and F\mathcal FF denotes its feasible set. For γ\gammaγ with γId≻D\gamma I_d \succ DγId​≻D the paper defines

h(γ)=ρ2−⟨Σ,(Id−γ(γId−D)−1)2⟩,L(γ)=γ2(γId−D)−1Σ(γId−D)−1,h(\gamma) = \rho^2 - \big\langle \Sigma, (I_d - \gamma(\gamma I_d - D)^{-1})^2\big\rangle, \qquad L(\gamma) = \gamma^2 (\gamma I_d - D)^{-1}\Sigma(\gamma I_d - D)^{-1},h(γ)=ρ2−⟨Σ,(Id​−γ(γId​−D)−1)2⟩,L(γ)=γ2(γId​−D)−1Σ(γId​−D)−1, Δ(γ)=γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])−⟨L(γ),D⟩+γ2⟨(γId−D)−1,Σ⟩.\Delta(\gamma) = \gamma(\rho^2 - \mathrm{Tr}[\Sigma]) - \langle L(\gamma), D\rangle + \gamma^2\langle(\gamma I_d - D)^{-1}, \Sigma\rangle .Δ(γ)=γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])−⟨L(γ),D⟩+γ2⟨(γId​−D)−1,Σ⟩.

Algorithm 1 takes the largest eigenvalue λ1\lambda_1λ1​ of DDD and a unit eigenvector v1v_1v1​, and starts from the bracket [LB,UB]=[γmin⁡,γmax⁡][LB, UB] = [\gamma_{\min}, \gamma_{\max}][LB,UB]=[γmin​,γmax​] with

γmin⁡=λ1(1+v1⊤Σv1/ρ),γmax⁡=λ1(1+Tr[Σ]/ρ).\gamma_{\min} = \lambda_1\big(1 + \sqrt{v_1^\top\Sigma v_1}/\rho\big), \qquad \gamma_{\max} = \lambda_1\big(1 + \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}[\Sigma]}/\rho\big).γmin​=λ1​(1+v1⊤​Σv1​​/ρ),γmax​=λ1​(1+Tr[Σ]​/ρ).

Each pass sets γ=(UB+LB)/2\gamma = (UB + LB)/2γ=(UB+LB)/2 and L=L(γ)L = L(\gamma)L=L(γ), replaces LBLBLB by γ\gammaγ if h(γ)<0h(\gamma) < 0h(γ)<0 and UBUBUB by γ\gammaγ otherwise, and the loop exits with output LLL as soon as h(γ)>0h(\gamma) > 0h(γ)>0 and Δ(γ)<ε\Delta(\gamma) < \varepsilonΔ(γ)<ε.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

For all inputs as above:

  1. Soundness. At every pass kkk whose exit test holds, with trial point γk\gamma_kγk​,
L(γk)∈Fand⟨L′,D⟩≤⟨L(γk),D⟩+ε  for all L′∈F.L(\gamma_k) \in \mathcal F \quad\text{and}\quad \langle L', D\rangle \le \langle L(\gamma_k), D\rangle + \varepsilon \ \text{ for all } L' \in \mathcal F .L(γk​)∈Fand⟨L′,D⟩≤⟨L(γk​),D⟩+ε  for all L′∈F.
  1. Termination. If hhh has no zero at a dyadic point γmin⁡+j(γmax⁡−γmin⁡)/2k\gamma_{\min} + j(\gamma_{\max} - \gamma_{\min})/2^kγmin​+j(γmax​−γmin​)/2k, 0<j≤2k0 < j \le 2^k0<j≤2k, then some pass satisfies the exit test.

The termination hypothesis is a correction: the printed theorem asserts that the algorithm outputs a solution, but if a trial point (or γmax⁡\gamma_{\max}γmax​) coincides exactly with the root of hhh, the upper end of the bracket becomes that root, all later trial points have h<0h < 0h<0, and the loop never exits. Soundness holds unconditionally. The normalization ∥v1∥=1\|v_1\| = 1∥v1​∥=1 is also added; the page says only "an eigenvector", and γmin⁡\gamma_{\min}γmin​ is not a lower bound for a rescaled one.

Milestones (App. A.3, p. 13, in the order the proof uses them)

  • L(γ)∈FL(\gamma) \in \mathcal FL(γ)∈F whenever γId≻D\gamma I_d \succ DγId​≻D and h(γ)>0h(\gamma) > 0h(γ)>0.
  • Weak duality: ⟨L′,D⟩≤γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])+γ2⟨(γId−D)−1,Σ⟩\langle L', D\rangle \le \gamma(\rho^2 - \mathrm{Tr}[\Sigma]) + \gamma^2\langle (\gamma I_d - D)^{-1}, \Sigma\rangle⟨L′,D⟩≤γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])+γ2⟨(γId​−D)−1,Σ⟩ for all L′∈FL' \in \mathcal FL′∈F and γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0 with γId≻D\gamma I_d \succ DγId​≻D.
  • The suboptimality display: if h(γ⋆)=0h(\gamma^\star) = 0h(γ⋆)=0 then ⟨L(γ⋆)−L(γ),D⟩≤γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])+γ2⟨(γId−D)−1,Σ⟩−⟨L(γ),D⟩\langle L(\gamma^\star) - L(\gamma), D\rangle \le \gamma(\rho^2 - \mathrm{Tr}[\Sigma]) + \gamma^2\langle(\gamma I_d - D)^{-1}, \Sigma\rangle - \langle L(\gamma), D\rangle⟨L(γ⋆)−L(γ),D⟩≤γ(ρ2−Tr[Σ])+γ2⟨(γId​−D)−1,Σ⟩−⟨L(γ),D⟩.
  • Lemma A.3: every root γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆ of hhh with γ⋆Id≻D\gamma^\star I_d \succ Dγ⋆Id​≻D lies in [γmin⁡,γmax⁡][\gamma_{\min}, \gamma_{\max}][γmin​,γmax​].

Significance

Theorem 3.2 is what makes Algorithm 1 a valid linear-maximization oracle for the Frank–Wolfe method on program (5): the convergence analysis of Frank–Wolfe with inexact oracles requires exactly a feasible point whose linearized objective is within a known tolerance of the optimum. It also shows that the inner problem, a semidefinite program with a matrix square root in the constraint, reduces to a scalar root-finding problem once DDD is diagonalized, which is why the robust filter runs at a cost comparable to an eigendecomposition per step.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. The formal version adds what the paper leaves implicit: the termination edge case, the normalization of v1v_1v1​, and the requirement D≠0D \ne 0D=0 (here n≥1n \ge 1n≥1). The milestone statements on Lagrangian weak duality for the Wasserstein–Gaussian trust region and on the location of the multiplier are reusable for other covariance-robust programs of the same shape, such as Wasserstein shrinkage estimation.

Difficulty

The algorithm is elementary; the analysis is not. Feasibility of L(γ)L(\gamma)L(γ) requires computing the matrix square root (Σ1/2L(γ)Σ1/2)1/2(\Sigma^{1/2}L(\gamma)\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}(Σ1/2L(γ)Σ1/2)1/2 in closed form and comparing eigenvalues of non-commuting products to obtain L(γ)⪰σ‾IdL(\gamma) \succeq \underline\sigma I_dL(γ)⪰σ​Id​. The dual bound is a semidefinite Lagrangian duality statement over a constraint involving a matrix square root, whose inner supremum (Lemma A.1, cited from earlier work) must be evaluated in closed form. Termination needs monotonicity and continuity of hhh on (λ1,∞)(\lambda_1, \infty)(λ1​,∞) and a careful account of which side of the root each bisection update lands on; the obvious invariant "the root stays strictly inside the bracket" fails precisely in the excluded dyadic case.

Formalization scope

Matrices are indexed by Fin n ⊕ Fin m with blocks toBlocks₁₁ (xxxxxx), toBlocks₁₂ (xyxyxy), toBlocks₂₂ (yyyyyy). The feasible set F\mathcal FF is the published definition WassersteinDRO.Shrinkage.sdpFeasibleSet ρ Σ σ, which uses the published positive semidefinite square root psdSqrt. Mathlib's matrix inverse returns 000 on singular matrices; every statement involving hhh, LLL or Δ\DeltaΔ assumes γId≻D\gamma I_d \succ DγId​≻D or works at trial points that lie above λ1\lambda_1λ1​, and Syy−1S_{yy}^{-1}Syy−1​ is allowed to be this junk value because the theorem admits any S∈S+dS \in \mathbb{S}^d_+S∈S+d​ (then D=diag(In,0)D = \mathrm{diag}(I_n, 0)D=diag(In​,0)). The constants σ‾\underline\sigmaσ​ and λ1\lambda_1λ1​ are passed as reals together with hypotheses that pin them to the smallest eigenvalue of Σ\SigmaΣ and the largest eigenvalue of DDD. The algorithm is modelled as its sequence of passes, not as a function returning an output, so a non-terminating run cannot silently produce a value.

A formalization that defines the output with a fuel bound or a default value, that states only optimality of L(γ⋆)L(\gamma^\star)L(γ⋆) at the exact root, or that assumes termination as a hypothesis would not be Theorem 3.2; ε\varepsilonε-suboptimality is stated against every feasible point, not against a supremum that could be a junk value.

A complete development needs the spectral theorem for symmetric matrices, uniqueness of the positive semidefinite square root, and semidefinite Lagrangian duality; Mathlib supplies the first two. Proofs of the milestones are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering, NeurIPS 2018; arXiv:1809.08830v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.08830
  • V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Distributionally Robust Inverse Covariance Estimation: The Wasserstein Shrinkage Estimator, Optimization Online, 2018; arXiv:1805.07194 (reference [18] of the paper; source of Lemma A.1). https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.07194
  • M. Jaggi, Revisiting Frank–Wolfe: Projection-Free Sparse Convex Optimization, ICML 2013 (reference [13]; Frank–Wolfe with approximate oracles). https://proceedings.mlr.press/v28/jaggi13.html
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