First Variation of a Compact Tilted Expectation
ProvedFunctionalInequalities.Probability.Posterior.expectation_hasDerivAt_of_compact_readableThis formalizes the compact-prior first-variation statement related to Equation (67) of Bizeul–Klartag–Lehec (arXiv:2610.05474v1), Equation (67), p. 19.
Let be a probability measure on a topological, measurable, second-countable Borel space with compact support. Let be continuous and let be measurable. Assume that for some , on . For the tilted probability measure with exponent , the expectation satisfies
The notation Measure.tilted denotes the normalized exponential tilt. This lemma is the basic first-variation formula for compact posterior measures.
Original Lean declaration header
Within namespace FunctionalInequalities.Probability.Posterior. Shown in its original module context. Proof omitted.
theorem expectation_hasDerivAt_of_compact (μ : ProbabilityMeasure Ω)
(hc : IsCompact (μ : Measure Ω).support) {φ g f : Ω → ℝ}
(hφ : Continuous φ) (hg : Continuous g) (hf : Measurable f) {C : ℝ} (hC : 0 ≤ C)
(hfb : ∀ x ∈ (μ : Measure Ω).support, ‖f x‖ ≤ C) :
HasDerivAt (fun t : ℝ => ∫ x, f x ∂((μ : Measure Ω).tilted (fun x => φ x + t * g x)))
(covariance f g ((μ : Measure Ω).tilted φ)) 0
Module navigation
Module: Probability/Posterior/CompactPrior.
Supporting theorems: hasDerivAt_weighted_integral_of_compact.
Previous: hasDerivAt_weighted_integral_of_compact · Next: norm_integral_tilted_le_of_compact.
Source excerpt, lines 134–139 · Frozen source 408915f.
import Definitions.Def_KLSModular_FunctionalInequalities_Probability_Posterior_CompactPrior
open MeasureTheory Filter Topology ProbabilityTheory
variable {Ω : Type*} [TopologicalSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace Ω] [BorelSpace Ω]
[SecondCountableTopology Ω]
theorem FunctionalInequalities.Probability.Posterior.expectation_hasDerivAt_of_compact_readable (μ : ProbabilityMeasure Ω)
(hc : IsCompact (μ : Measure Ω).support) {φ g f : Ω → ℝ}
(hφ : Continuous φ) (hg : Continuous g) (hf : Measurable f) {C : ℝ} (hC : 0 ≤ C)
(hfb : ∀ x ∈ (μ : Measure Ω).support, ‖f x‖ ≤ C) :
HasDerivAt (fun t : ℝ => ∫ x, f x ∂((μ : Measure Ω).tilted (fun x => φ x + t * g x)))
(covariance f g ((μ : Measure Ω).tilted φ)) 0 := by sorry