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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record→≥ 0.526Open frontier
3 provers on it3 of 8 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.92027942Formalized record→≤ 1.920279408185Open frontier
5 provers on it9 of 11 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
42 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimality and Duality Theory for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Nonlinear Dominance Constraints 1: Under Uniform Dominance, Optimal Solutions Have Concave Utility and L∞ MultipliersResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic programs often optimize a decision that changes several random outcomes at once. A reference outcome may be acceptable even when no fixed threshold captures its risk: one wants the new outcome to be preferable under every increasing concave assessment of gains. Second order stochastic dominance expresses that comparison. Dentcheva and Ruszczyński study optimization with several such constraints, each imposed on a nonlinear outcome operator, and show how the constraint multipliers can be represented by utility functions rather than scalar penalties (Dentcheva–Ruszczyński, 2004). Their earlier paper, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, treats the pure dominance case without the nonlinear decision map; the present result adds decision dependent outcomes, multiple constraints, and split variables. Ogryczak and Ruszczyński's second performance function supplies the stochastic order used here (Ogryczak–Ruszczyński, 2002).

The utility interpretation matters when a modeler wants a certificate explaining why a solution satisfies a risk preference expressed by dominance. The theorem identifies a concave utility for each binding dominance constraint and an essentially bounded multiplier for each comparison between the split outcome and the outcome produced by the decision. The source is a revised April 2003 author manuscript, later published in Mathematical Programming in 2004; the page and equation numbers below follow that manuscript (author manuscript).

Setting

Work on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P). An integrable random outcome is a measurable real function with finite expected absolute value; L1\mathcal L^1L1 denotes these outcomes, and L∞\mathcal L^\inftyL∞ denotes essentially bounded ones. The decisions lie in a convex set ZZZ inside a separable locally convex Hausdorff real vector space Z\mathcal ZZ. An integrable objective outcome H(z)H(z)H(z) and integrable constraint outcomes Gi(z)G_i(z)Gi​(z) depend continuously in the L1\mathcal L^1L1 norm on zzz. Almost every realized map z↦H(z)(ω)z\mapsto H(z)(\omega)z↦H(z)(ω) and z↦Gi(z)(ω)z\mapsto G_i(z)(\omega)z↦Gi​(z)(ω) is concave and continuous on all of Z\mathcal ZZ. Fixed integrable outcomes YiY_iYi​ serve as references; the iiith comparison is required over a bounded interval [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​].

For an outcome XXX, its second performance function is the area below its distribution function:

F2(X;η)=∫−∞ηP{X≤ξ} dξ.F_2(X;\eta)=\int_{-\infty}^{\eta}P\{X\le\xi\}\,d\xi.F2​(X;η)=∫−∞η​P{X≤ξ}dξ.

The split program (11)–(14) chooses z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z and X=(X1,…,Xm)∈(L1)mX=(X_1,\ldots,X_m)\in(\mathcal L^1)^mX=(X1​,…,Xm​)∈(L1)m to maximize EH(z)\mathbb E H(z)EH(z), subject to F2(Xi;η)≤F2(Yi;η)F_2(X_i;\eta)\le F_2(Y_i;\eta)F2​(Xi​;η)≤F2​(Yi​;η) for every η∈[ai,bi]\eta\in[a_i,b_i]η∈[ai​,bi​], and Xi≤Gi(z)X_i\le G_i(z)Xi​≤Gi​(z) almost surely. Larger outcomes are preferred, so a dominating XiX_iXi​ has the smaller F2F_2F2​ curve. The split variables expose the dominance and decision coupling as separate constraints (manuscript, pp. 3–4).

The utility cone U1([a,b])\mathcal U_1([a,b])U1​([a,b]) consists of concave nondecreasing functions u:R→Ru:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Ru:R→R that vanish for t≥bt\ge bt≥b and are affine with a nonnegative slope for t≤at\le at≤a. Given uiu_iui​ in these cones and θi∈L∞\theta_i\in\mathcal L^\inftyθi​∈L∞, the Lagrangian is

L(z,X,u,θ)=E ⁣[H(z)+∑i=1m(ui(Xi)−ui(Yi)+θi(Gi(z)−Xi))].L(z,X,u,\theta)=\mathbb E\!\left[H(z)+\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl(u_i(X_i)-u_i(Y_i)+\theta_i(G_i(z)-X_i)\bigr)\right].L(z,X,u,θ)=E[H(z)+i=1∑m​(ui​(Xi​)−ui​(Yi​)+θi​(Gi​(z)−Xi​))].

Uniform dominance means one decision z~∈Z\tilde z\in Zz~∈Z makes every dominance inequality uniformly strict on its interval: for each iii, F2(Yi;η)−F2(Gi(z~);η)F_2(Y_i;\eta)-F_2(G_i(\tilde z);\eta)F2​(Yi​;η)−F2​(Gi​(z~);η) has a positive lower bound over [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​] (Definition 1, p. 7).

Formalization targets

Utility and bounded multiplier characterization

Theorem 2 is the goal. Under uniform dominance, every optimum (z^,X^)(\hat z,\hat X)(z^,X^) of the split program admits u^i∈U1([ai,bi])\hat u_i\in\mathcal U_1([a_i,b_i])u^i​∈U1​([ai​,bi​]) and nonnegative θ^i∈L∞\hat\theta_i\in\mathcal L^\inftyθ^i​∈L∞ with

L(z^,X^,u^,θ^)=max⁡z∈Z, X∈(L1)mL(z,X,u^,θ^),L(\hat z,\hat X,\hat u,\hat\theta)=\max_{z\in Z,\,X\in(\mathcal L^1)^m}L(z,X,\hat u,\hat\theta),L(z^,X^,u^,θ^)=z∈Z,X∈(L1)mmax​L(z,X,u^,θ^), Eu^i(X^i)=Eu^i(Yi),θ^i(X^i−Gi(z^))=0almost surely.\mathbb E\hat u_i(\hat X_i)=\mathbb E\hat u_i(Y_i),\qquad \hat\theta_i\bigl(\hat X_i-G_i(\hat z)\bigr)=0\quad\text{almost surely}.Eu^i​(X^i​)=Eu^i​(Yi​),θ^i​(X^i​−Gi​(z^))=0almost surely.

Conversely, an attained Lagrangian maximum satisfying the split constraints and these complementarity equations is a primal optimum. The milestone list follows the source's measure multiplier equations (23)–(24), the measure to utility identity (25), Theorem 1's expected concave subgradient characterization, and the converse's weak duality inequality (manuscript, pp. 5, 8–10).

Significance

The result gives a concrete optimality certificate in a program whose constraints compare entire outcome distributions. Each utility multiplier represents the active part of one dominance constraint. Each θi\theta_iθi​ accounts for the almost sure inequality linking a split outcome to the decision. The equalities show exactly where those constraints are complementary, while the Lagrangian maximum compares the proposed solution with all integrable split outcomes. The paper derives a dual problem from the same Lagrangian in its following section (manuscript, p. 11).

The mathematical theorem is proved in the paper. This mission seeks a machine checked version of its definitions, measure identity, subgradient statement, and both directions of Theorem 2. The published second performance definition is reused as a reference; the nonlinear split program and its utility and measure Lagrangians require a development specific to this paper. The 2003 pure dominance mission contains related local drafts, but those items are not published and cannot currently be imported as platform theorems.

Difficulty

The dominance inequality contains a continuum of thresholds for each outcome. A scalar multiplier at one threshold cannot capture the whole constraint, while the dual object for continuous functions on [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​] is a measure. The split inequality lives in L1\mathcal L^1L1, where the nonnegative cone has empty interior, so an ordinary interior point argument applied to all constraints at once does not match the paper's setting. The source also needs a subgradient of expected concave utility represented by an almost surely selected, essentially bounded random vector; the conclusion is stronger than merely knowing that the expected objective has a deterministic supporting functional (manuscript, pp. 5–9).

Formalization scope

The Lean development keeps the general separable locally convex Hausdorff decision space, the convex set ZZZ, and a finite index type for the mmm dominance constraints. Operators are function representatives with explicit integrability, continuity in L1\mathcal L^1L1, and samplewise concavity and continuity. Almost sure comparisons use the probability measure PPP; the null set for each realization condition precedes the quantifier over decisions. Split outcomes range only over integrable functions, and utility multipliers range over the exact cone U1([ai,bi])\mathcal U_1([a_i,b_i])U1​([ai​,bi​]). The L∞\mathcal L^\inftyL∞ condition includes almost sure strong measurability and essential boundedness. Maxima in Theorems 1 and 2 are attained maxima, expressed by membership and comparison against every competitor, never a real supremum with a default value.

The source prints a strictly positive affine slope in its definition of U1\mathcal U_1U1​, but immediately calls this class a cone and later uses the zero measure. The formalization uses c≥0c\ge0c≥0; with c>0c>0c>0, Theorem 2 is false for a slack dominance constraint. Uniform dominance is expressed as a positive lower bound rather than a real infimum. The measure milestone uses finite nonnegative measures supported on closed intervals, including endpoint atoms. These conditions exclude default zero integrals, an empty interval disguised by an infimum, and a vacuous utility class. Contributions to the measure to utility correspondence, integration identities, and expected concave subgradient infrastructure can be reused beyond this program.

Selected references

  • D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Optimality and duality theory for stochastic optimization problems with nonlinear dominance constraints, Mathematical Programming (2004), DOI; revised author manuscript, April 2003.
  • D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, manuscript submitted for publication (2002), cited as reference [6] in the 2003 author manuscript.
  • W. Ogryczak and A. Ruszczyński, Dual stochastic dominance and related mean risk models, SIAM Journal on Optimization 13 (2002), DOI.
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Rates for the Regularized Least-Squares Algorithm III: Against Every Algorithm, a Single Distribution in P(b, c) Keeps the Expected Excess Risk above ℓ^(−cB/(cB+1)) for B > b (Theorem 3)Research Paper

Why individual lower rates

Regularized least squares (RLS) in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space is a basic estimator of nonparametric regression and of kernel-based learning. Its learning rate is the speed at which the expected excess risk goes to zero as the sample size ℓ\ellℓ grows. A rate is useful only if it is known to be optimal, and optimality is a lower-bound statement about all learning algorithms.

Caponnetto and De Vito (Found. Comput. Math. 7 (2007)) prove two kinds of lower bound. The first is a minimax lower rate (their Theorem 2): for every algorithm and every ℓ\ellℓ, some distribution in the prior is hard. Their Section 2 (p. 6) points out a weakness of this notion: the bad distribution may change with ℓ\ellℓ. A practitioner, however, faces one fixed unknown distribution and asks how the error decreases as data accumulate. The individual lower rate answers that question. It asks for a single distribution, chosen against the algorithm but not depending on ℓ\ellℓ, on which the expected excess risk stays above aℓa_\ellaℓ​ along infinitely many ℓ\ellℓ.

The notion comes from nonparametric regression. Györfi, Kohler, Krzyżak and Walk (A Distribution-Free Theory of Nonparametric Regression, Springer 2002, §3, Theorem 3.3) proved individual lower rates for classes of smooth regression functions. Theorem 3 of Caponnetto–De Vito carries the result to vector-valued RKHS with the spectral priors P(b,c)\mathcal P(b, c)P(b,c). Theorem 1 of the same paper shows that these priors are learned by RLS at rate ℓ−bc/(bc+1)\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}ℓ−bc/(bc+1).

Setting

The input space XXX is Polish. The output space YYY is a real Hilbert space of finite dimension ddd. The hypothesis space H\mathcal HH is a separable real Hilbert space of functions f:X→Yf : X \to Yf:X→Y in which evaluation is continuous, so that f(x)=Kx∗ff(x) = K_x^* ff(x)=Kx∗​f for bounded operators Kx:Y→HK_x : Y \to \mathcal HKx​:Y→H. Hypothesis 1 asks that (x,t)↦⟨Ktv,Kxw⟩H(x, t) \mapsto \langle K_t v, K_x w\rangle_{\mathcal H}(x,t)↦⟨Kt​v,Kx​w⟩H​ be measurable and that Tr⁡(Kx∗Kx)≤κ\operatorname{Tr}(K_x^*K_x) \le \kappaTr(Kx∗​Kx​)≤κ for every xxx.

A distribution ρ\rhoρ on Z=X×YZ = X \times YZ=X×Y has marginal ρX\rho_XρX​ and conditional distributions ρ(⋅∣x)\rho(\cdot \mid x)ρ(⋅∣x). The risk of f∈Hf \in \mathcal Hf∈H is

E[f]=∫Z∥f(x)−y∥Y2 dρ(x,y).\mathcal E[f] = \int_Z \|f(x) - y\|_Y^2 \, d\rho(x, y).E[f]=∫Z​∥f(x)−y∥Y2​dρ(x,y).

Hypothesis 2 asks for square-integrable outputs, a minimizer fHf_{\mathcal H}fH​ of E\mathcal EE over H\mathcal HH, and a Bernstein-type moment bound on the noise y−fH(x)y - f_{\mathcal H}(x)y−fH​(x) with constants M,ΣM, \SigmaM,Σ.

The operator T=∫XKxKx∗ dρX(x)T = \int_X K_x K_x^*\, d\rho_X(x)T=∫X​Kx​Kx∗​dρX​(x) on H\mathcal HH satisfies ⟨Tf,g⟩=∫X⟨f(x),g(x)⟩Y dρX\langle Tf, g\rangle = \int_X \langle f(x), g(x)\rangle_Y \, d\rho_X⟨Tf,g⟩=∫X​⟨f(x),g(x)⟩Y​dρX​. Its nonzero eigenvalues are t1≥t2≥…t_1 \ge t_2 \ge \dotst1​≥t2​≥…, with orthonormal eigenvectors ene_nen​.

For positive constants M,Σ,R,α,βM, \Sigma, R, \alpha, \betaM,Σ,R,α,β and parameters 1<b<∞1 < b < \infty1<b<∞, 1≤c≤21 \le c \le 21≤c≤2, the prior P(b,c)\mathcal P(b, c)P(b,c) (Definition 1) is the set of probability measures ρ\rhoρ satisfying three conditions:

  • Hypothesis 2 holds for the minimal-norm minimizer fHf_{\mathcal H}fH​;
  • fH=T(c−1)/2gf_{\mathcal H} = T^{(c-1)/2} gfH​=T(c−1)/2g with ∥g∥H2≤R\|g\|_{\mathcal H}^2 \le R∥g∥H2​≤R (a source condition);
  • the eigenvalues satisfy α≤nbtn≤β\alpha \le n^b t_n \le \betaα≤nbtn​≤β for all n≥1n \ge 1n≥1.

A learning algorithm is a sequence of maps fℓ:Zℓ→Hf_\ell : Z^\ell \to \mathcal Hfℓ​:Zℓ→H, and fzℓf^\ell_{\mathbf z}fzℓ​ is its output on a sample z\mathbf zz of size ℓ\ellℓ drawn from ρℓ\rho^\ellρℓ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 11)

For every B>bB > bB>b,

inf⁡{fℓ} sup⁡ρ∈P(b,c) lim sup⁡ℓ→∞Ez∼ρℓ(E[fzℓ]−E[fH])ℓ−cB/(cB+1)>0.\inf_{\{f_\ell\}}\ \sup_{\rho \in \mathcal P(b, c)}\ \limsup_{\ell \to \infty} \frac{\mathbb E_{\mathbf z \sim \rho^\ell}\big(\mathcal E[f^\ell_{\mathbf z}] - \mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}]\big)}{\ell^{-cB/(cB+1)}} > 0 .{fℓ​}inf​ ρ∈P(b,c)sup​ ℓ→∞limsup​ℓ−cB/(cB+1)Ez∼ρℓ​(E[fzℓ​]−E[fH​])​>0.

Equivalently, there is C>0C > 0C>0 such that every algorithm admits one ρ∈P(b,c)\rho \in \mathcal P(b, c)ρ∈P(b,c) with expected excess risk at least Cℓ−cB/(cB+1)C\ell^{-cB/(cB+1)}Cℓ−cB/(cB+1) for infinitely many ℓ\ellℓ. The constant may depend on the prior and on BBB, but not on the algorithm.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 7 (pp. 25–26). A fair sign sss observed as y=sg+ny = sg + ny=sg+n with i.i.d. N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2) noise has Bayes error Φ(−∥g∥/σ)\Phi(-\|g\|/\sigma)Φ(−∥g∥/σ).
  2. P′⊂P(b,c)\mathcal P' \subset \mathcal P(b, c)P′⊂P(b,c) (pp. 26–27). This concerns distributions with marginal ν\nuν and conditional distribution N(m(s)(x),σ2Id)\mathcal N(m^{(s)}(x), \sigma^2\mathrm{Id})N(m(s)(x),σ2Id), where
m(s)=∑nsnγn/tn en,γn=n−(Bc+1)ϵϵ+1αcR,m^{(s)} = \sum_n s_n\sqrt{\gamma_n/t_n}\,e_n, \qquad \gamma_n = n^{-(Bc+1)}\tfrac{\epsilon}{\epsilon+1}\alpha^c R,m(s)=n∑​sn​γn​/tn​​en​,γn​=n−(Bc+1)ϵ+1ϵ​αcR,

with ϵ=(B−b)c\epsilon = (B - b)cϵ=(B−b)c and s∈{±1}∞s \in \{\pm1\}^\inftys∈{±1}∞. Every such distribution belongs to the prior. 3. (63) (p. 27). Under these distributions, E[f]−E[m(s)]=∑n(cn−sn)2γn\mathcal E[f] - \mathcal E[m^{(s)}] = \sum_n (c_n - s_n)^2\gamma_nE[f]−E[m(s)]=∑n​(cn​−sn​)2γn​ with cn=tn/γn⟨f,en⟩c_n = \sqrt{t_n/\gamma_n}\langle f, e_n\ranglecn​=tn​/γn​​⟨f,en​⟩. 4. (68) (p. 28, corrected). ∑ℓγn≤1γn≥u1/(Bc+1)2Bc ℓ−Bc/(Bc+1)\sum_{\ell\gamma_n \le 1} \gamma_n \ge \tfrac{u^{1/(Bc+1)}}{2Bc}\,\ell^{-Bc/(Bc+1)}∑ℓγn​≤1​γn​≥2Bcu1/(Bc+1)​ℓ−Bc/(Bc+1) for ℓ≥(2Bc)Bc+1/u\ell \ge (2Bc)^{Bc+1}/uℓ≥(2Bc)Bc+1/u, where u=ϵϵ+1αcRu = \tfrac{\epsilon}{\epsilon+1}\alpha^c Ru=ϵ+1ϵ​αcR. 5. (67) (pp. 28–30). Averaged over independent fair signs SSS, the expected number of sign errors over {n:ℓγn≤1}\{n : \ell\gamma_n \le 1\}{n:ℓγn​≤1}, weighted by γn\gamma_nγn​, is at least Φ(−1/σ)∑ℓγn≤1γn\Phi(-1/\sigma)\sum_{\ell\gamma_n \le 1}\gamma_nΦ(−1/σ)∑ℓγn​≤1​γn​.

Significance

Theorem 3 shows that no algorithm, RLS included, converges on every fixed distribution of P(b,c)\mathcal P(b, c)P(b,c) faster than ℓ−cB/(cB+1)\ell^{-cB/(cB+1)}ℓ−cB/(cB+1), for any B>bB > bB>b. For c>1c > 1c>1 this exponent is arbitrarily close to the exponent bc/(bc+1)bc/(bc+1)bc/(bc+1) of the upper rate of Theorem 1, so RLS with the regularization parameter of Theorem 1 is near-optimal even in the individual sense. The paper notes (p. 6) that full individual optimality would still need an upper rate in expectation or an individual lower rate in probability; that question is outside this mission.

The theorem is proved on paper and has been cited widely. To our knowledge no part of it has been machine-checked. A formalization would produce:

  • a checked reduction from a learning lower bound to Gaussian sign testing;
  • a Lean model of Gaussian-noise regression with vector outputs;
  • an explicit, checked version of the corrected computation (68).

Difficulty

A minimax argument picks a hard distribution for each ℓ\ellℓ, and that is not allowed here: the distribution must be fixed before ℓ\ellℓ varies. The obvious repair, taking the worst distribution for one ℓ\ellℓ and keeping it, fails, because a distribution that is hard at sample size ℓ\ellℓ can be easy at sample size 10ℓ10\ell10ℓ.

What has to be shown is a lower bound that holds for one distribution simultaneously along infinitely many sample sizes. Bounds that hold separately at each ℓ\ellℓ, with a distribution that may depend on ℓ\ellℓ, do not combine into such a bound.

A second difficulty arises in any reduction to a coordinatewise testing problem: each observation yiy_iyi​ depends on all spectral coordinates of the regression function at once, so testing one coordinate is not literally the problem of Proposition 7.

Formalization scope

H\mathcal HH is Mathlib's RKHS ℝ H X Y, with KxK_xKx​ = RKHS.kerFun H x and YYY finite-dimensional. The paper's Σ\SigmaΣ is written Sig.

  • The operator TTT. It is never formed as an operator-valued integral. It enters through its quadratic form and through an eigen-system (en,tn)(e_n, t_n)(en​,tn​) with summable weights.
  • Indexing. Indices start at 000, so the paper's tnt_ntn​ is t (n-1).
  • The prior. InPrior encodes ρ∈P(b,c)\rho \in \mathcal P(b, c)ρ∈P(b,c), including "probability measure".
  • Expectations. Expectations are lintegrals of nonnegative quantities, and samples are Fin ℓ → X × Y under the product measure.
  • Algorithms. A learning algorithm is a family of maps from samples to H\mathcal HH, and it must be measurable.
  • Added hypothesis. P(b,c)\mathcal P(b, c)P(b,c) is assumed nonempty. The proof starts from "an arbitrary ρ0∈P(b,c)\rho_0 \in \mathcal P(b, c)ρ0​∈P(b,c)", and with an empty prior the supremum is over the empty set and the statement fails.
  • The noise. Gaussian noise with covariance σ2Id\sigma^2\mathrm{Id}σ2Id is σξ\sigma\xiσξ with ξ∼\xi \simξ∼ stdGaussian Y.
  • SdS^dSd. It is read as the surface area of the unit sphere of Rd\mathbb R^dRd.

Two parts of the print are corrected, and both corrections are stated in the items.

  • (68). The printed constant v=u−Bc/(Bc+1)/(2Bc)v = u^{-Bc/(Bc+1)}/(2Bc)v=u−Bc/(Bc+1)/(2Bc) and threshold 2Bc(2Bcu)Bc2Bc(2Bcu)^{Bc}2Bc(2Bcu)Bc come from dropping the factor uuu in an integral, and the printed inequality fails for u<1/2u < 1/2u<1/2. The corrected constant is u1/(Bc+1)/(2Bc)u^{1/(Bc+1)}/(2Bc)u1/(Bc+1)/(2Bc), with threshold (2Bc)Bc+1/u(2Bc)^{Bc+1}/u(2Bc)Bc+1/u.
  • (67). It is stated with the explicit constant C=Φ(−1/σ)C = \Phi(-1/\sigma)C=Φ(−1/σ) that the proof obtains.

The goal mentions none of P′\mathcal P'P′, m(s)m^{(s)}m(s), γn\gamma_nγn​ or Φ\PhiΦ. It is the lower rate (3) for the full prior P(b,c)\mathcal P(b, c)P(b,c) with aℓ=ℓ−cB/(cB+1)a_\ell = \ell^{-cB/(cB+1)}aℓ​=ℓ−cB/(cB+1). A formalization that fixed the algorithm, let the distribution depend on ℓ\ellℓ, or let the constant depend on the algorithm would prove a different, weaker statement.

A complete development needs:

  • Gaussian measures on finite-dimensional inner product spaces, and the distribution function of the standard normal;
  • conditional distributions on Polish products;
  • infinite products of fair coins;
  • series in Hilbert spaces with orthogonal terms.

Reusable pieces include Proposition 7, the Bayes-error monotonicity argument on p. 29, and the identification of the risk minimizer of a Gaussian-noise model. Contributions on any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the measurability facts (elements of H\mathcal HH are measurable under Hypothesis 1).

Selected references

  • A. Caponnetto and E. De Vito, Optimal rates for the regularized least-squares algorithm, Found. Comput. Math. 7 (2007) 331–368. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-006-0196-8
  • L. Györfi, M. Kohler, A. Krzyżak and H. Walk, A Distribution-Free Theory of Nonparametric Regression, Springer Series in Statistics, 2002 (§3, Theorem 3.3; Lemma 3.2).
  • R. DeVore, G. Kerkyacharian, D. Picard and V. Temlyakov, Approximation methods for supervised learning, Found. Comput. Math. 6 (2006) 3–58.
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Rates for the Regularized Least-Squares Algorithm II: No Learning Algorithm Converges Faster than ℓ^(−bc/(bc+1)) Uniformly over P(b, c) — the Minimax Lower Rate (Theorem 2)Research Paper

Why lower bounds for kernel regression matter

Regularized least squares (RLS), also called kernel ridge regression, is one of the standard estimators of statistical learning: given a sample of input–output pairs, it fits a function from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space by minimizing the empirical squared error plus a multiple of the squared norm. Caponnetto and De Vito (FoCM 2007) proved that, over a class of distributions described by two parameters — the decay of the eigenvalues of the kernel's covariance operator and the smoothness of the regression function relative to it — RLS with a well-chosen regularization parameter converges at the rate ℓ−bc/(bc+1)\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}ℓ−bc/(bc+1) in the sample size ℓ\ellℓ (their Theorem 1). An upper rate on its own does not say whether another method could do better. This mission formalizes the matching minimax lower rate (their Theorem 2): when the output space is finite dimensional, no learning algorithm whatsoever converges faster than ℓ−bc/(bc+1)\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}ℓ−bc/(bc+1) uniformly over the class. Together the two theorems say that RLS is rate-optimal, and they are the reference point for later work on spectral regularization, early stopping and distributed kernel methods.

The paper's lower bound adapts the minimax analysis of DeVore, Kerkyacharian, Picard and Temlyakov (FoCM 2006) to the vector-valued RKHS setting.

Setting

Inputs xxx lie in a Polish space XXX and outputs yyy in a real Hilbert space YYY of finite dimension ddd. The hypothesis space H\mathcal HH is a separable Hilbert space of functions f:X→Yf : X \to Yf:X→Y in which evaluation is continuous; Kx:Y→HK_x : Y \to \mathcal HKx​:Y→H is the adjoint of evaluation at xxx, so f(x)=Kx∗ff(x) = K_x^* ff(x)=Kx∗​f. Hypothesis 1 asks that (x,t)↦⟨Ktv,Kxw⟩H(x,t) \mapsto \langle K_t v, K_x w\rangle_{\mathcal H}(x,t)↦⟨Kt​v,Kx​w⟩H​ be measurable and that Tr⁡(Kx∗Kx)≤κ\operatorname{Tr}(K_x^*K_x) \le \kappaTr(Kx∗​Kx​)≤κ for every xxx.

A distribution ρ\rhoρ on Z=X×YZ = X \times YZ=X×Y has risk E[f]=∫∥f(x)−y∥2 dρ\mathcal E[f] = \int \|f(x) - y\|^2\, d\rhoE[f]=∫∥f(x)−y∥2dρ. Hypothesis 2 asks that ∫∥y∥2dρ<∞\int\|y\|^2 d\rho < \infty∫∥y∥2dρ<∞, that the risk has a minimizer fH∈Hf_{\mathcal H} \in \mathcal HfH​∈H (taken of minimal norm), and that the noise y−fH(x)y - f_{\mathcal H}(x)y−fH​(x) satisfies a Bernstein moment condition with constants M,ΣM, \SigmaM,Σ. With ρX\rho_XρX​ the marginal of ρ\rhoρ, the operator T=∫KxKx∗ dρX(x)T = \int K_x K_x^*\, d\rho_X(x)T=∫Kx​Kx∗​dρX​(x) on H\mathcal HH has the quadratic form ⟨Tf,g⟩=∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩ dρX\langle Tf, g\rangle = \int \langle f(x), g(x)\rangle\, d\rho_X⟨Tf,g⟩=∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩dρX​ and a spectral decomposition T=∑ntn⟨⋅,en⟩enT = \sum_n t_n \langle\cdot, e_n\rangle e_nT=∑n​tn​⟨⋅,en​⟩en​.

The prior P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c) (Definition 1, with fixed positive M,Σ,R,α,βM, \Sigma, R, \alpha, \betaM,Σ,R,α,β, 1<b<∞1 < b < \infty1<b<∞ and 1≤c≤21 \le c \le 21≤c≤2) is the set of probability measures ρ\rhoρ satisfying Hypothesis 2 with M,ΣM, \SigmaM,Σ such that

  • TTT has infinitely many positive eigenvalues t1≥t2≥…t_1 \ge t_2 \ge \dotst1​≥t2​≥… with α≤nbtn≤β\alpha \le n^b t_n \le \betaα≤nbtn​≤β (a capacity condition);
  • fH=T(c−1)/2gf_{\mathcal H} = T^{(c-1)/2} gfH​=T(c−1)/2g for some ggg with ∥g∥2≤R\|g\|^2 \le R∥g∥2≤R (a source condition).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 11)

lim⁡τ→0 lim inf⁡ℓ→∞ inf⁡fℓ sup⁡ρ∈P(b,c) Pz∼ρℓ[E[fzℓ]−E[fH]>τ ℓ−bcbc+1]=1,\lim_{\tau \to 0}\ \liminf_{\ell \to \infty}\ \inf_{f_\ell}\ \sup_{\rho \in \mathcal P(b,c)}\ \mathbb P_{\mathbf z \sim \rho^\ell}\Big[\mathcal E[f^\ell_{\mathbf z}] - \mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}] > \tau\, \ell^{-\frac{bc}{bc+1}}\Big] = 1,τ→0lim​ ℓ→∞liminf​ fℓ​inf​ ρ∈P(b,c)sup​ Pz∼ρℓ​[E[fzℓ​]−E[fH​]>τℓ−bc+1bc​]=1,

the infimum over all learning algorithms fℓ:Zℓ→Hf_\ell : Z^\ell \to \mathcal Hfℓ​:Zℓ→H. The constant in front of the rate is left free, so the goal asserts only the exponent.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4 (p. 21): for f=T(c−1)/2gf = T^{(c-1)/2}gf=T(c−1)/2g, ∥g∥2≤R\|g\|^2 \le R∥g∥2≤R, the explicit distribution ρf\rho_fρf​ with marginal ν\nuν (the marginal of some ρ0∈P(b,c)\rho_0 \in \mathcal P(b,c)ρ0​∈P(b,c)) and 2d2d2d-point conditional law is a probability measure with regression function fff, and lies in P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c) when min⁡(M,Σ)≥2(4d+1)κcR\min(M,\Sigma) \ge 2(4d+1)\sqrt{\kappa^c R}min(M,Σ)≥2(4d+1)κcR​.
  2. Proposition 4, (54): K(ρf,ρf′)≤1615dL2∥T(f−f′)∥2\mathcal K(\rho_f, \rho_{f'}) \le \frac{16}{15 d L^2}\|\sqrt T(f - f')\|^2K(ρf​,ρf′​)≤15dL216​∥T​(f−f′)∥2 with L=4κcRL = 4\sqrt{\kappa^c R}L=4κcR​.
  3. Proposition 6 (p. 24): for m>16m > 16m>16 there are N≥em/24N \ge e^{m/24}N≥em/24 sign vectors in {−1,+1}m\{-1,+1\}^m{−1,+1}m with pairwise ∑n(σin−σjn)2≥m\sum_n(\sigma_i^n - \sigma_j^n)^2 \ge m∑n​(σin​−σjn​)2≥m.
  4. Proposition 5 (pp. 22–23): for small ϵ\epsilonϵ there are Nϵ≥eγϵ−1/(bc)N_\epsilon \ge e^{\gamma\epsilon^{-1/(bc)}}Nϵ​≥eγϵ−1/(bc) functions in the source class with ϵ≤∥T(fi−fj)∥2≤4ϵ\epsilon \le \|\sqrt T(f_i - f_j)\|^2 \le 4\epsilonϵ≤∥T​(fi​−fj​)∥2≤4ϵ.
  5. Theorem 5 (p. 24): for every algorithm some ρ∗∈P(b,c)\rho_* \in \mathcal P(b,c)ρ∗​∈P(b,c) has P[excess risk>ϵ/4]≥min⁡{N∗/(N∗+1), e−3/eN∗ e−4ℓϵ/(15dκcR)}\mathbb P[\text{excess risk} > \epsilon/4] \ge \min\{N^*/(N^*+1),\ e^{-3/e}\sqrt{N^*}\, e^{-4\ell\epsilon/(15 d\kappa^c R)}\}P[excess risk>ϵ/4]≥min{N∗/(N∗+1), e−3/eN∗​e−4ℓϵ/(15dκcR)}, N∗=eγϵ−1/(bc)N^* = e^{\gamma\epsilon^{-1/(bc)}}N∗=eγϵ−1/(bc).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 shows that the exponent bc/(bc+1)bc/(bc+1)bc/(bc+1) attained by RLS cannot be improved by any estimator over P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c) when dim⁡Y<∞\dim Y < \inftydimY<∞; for c=1c = 1c=1 RLS is optimal up to a logarithmic factor. It separates what is a property of the problem class from what is a property of the algorithm: improvements to kernel methods must change the class (stronger assumptions) rather than the rate. The construction — a packing of the source class measured in the T\sqrt TT​-norm, combined with a KL bound for an explicit noise model — is the template reused in many later lower bounds for kernel and inverse-problem estimators.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved since 2007; no machine-checked version exists. A formal proof needs the information-theoretic lower-bound machinery (a Fano-type inequality for many hypotheses), a Varshamov–Gilbert-type packing of the Hamming cube, KL divergence between explicit mixtures, and the spectral description of the covariance operator of a vector-valued RKHS. Each of these is reusable well beyond this paper. The mission also makes precise the paper's implicit conventions (see below), which a pen-and-paper reader fills in silently.

Difficulty

The upper half of the argument is not the hard part; the hard part is that the lower bound is uniform over all measurable algorithms, which no direct computation reaches. The step that does not follow from the paper alone is Theorem 5: its proof invokes Lemma 3.3 and Eq. 3.12 of DeVore et al., a Fano-type inequality bounding the probability of correct identification among NNN hypotheses with pairwise KL divergence at most a given level. That lemma is not stated in the paper and is not in Mathlib; it must be formalized. A second obstacle is the packing (Proposition 6), whose proof is a probabilistic union bound with Hoeffding's inequality. A naive attempt to prove Theorem 2 by exhibiting a single bad distribution fails: for any fixed ρ\rhoρ some algorithm (the constant one returning fρf_{\rho}fρ​) has zero excess risk, so the bad distribution must depend on the algorithm, and the order of quantifiers is essential.

Formalization scope

Mathlib's RKHS ℝ H X Y provides the function space with continuous evaluation, RKHS.kerFun is KxK_xKx​, and InformationTheory.klDiv is the Kullback–Leibler information. The operator TTT is never built as an operator-valued Bochner integral: it is recorded through its quadratic form ∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩dρX\int\langle f(x), g(x)\rangle d\rho_X∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩dρX​ and an eigen-system indexed by N\mathbb NN from 000 (the paper's tnt_ntn​ is t (n-1)). The trace in Hypothesis 1 is a series over a Hilbert basis of YYY; the conditional law in Hypothesis 2 is Measure.condKernel, and the moment integral there is a lintegral. E[fH]\mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}]E[fH​] in the goal is inf⁡f∈HE[f]\inf_{f \in \mathcal H}\mathcal E[f]inff∈H​E[f].

Conventions and added hypotheses, each implicit on the page:

  • P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c) is assumed nonempty; the proof fixes ρ0∈P(b,c)\rho_0 \in \mathcal P(b,c)ρ0​∈P(b,c), and over an empty prior the supremum is over the empty set and the statement is false.
  • Algorithms are measurable maps Zℓ→HZ^\ell \to \mathcal HZℓ→H; this is the reading under which the probability in the goal is defined, and it restricts the infimum relative to "all mappings".
  • The constants M,Σ,R,α,β,κM, \Sigma, R, \alpha, \beta, \kappaM,Σ,R,α,β,κ are positive; the basis (vj)(v_j)(vj​) of YYY in Proposition 4 is orthonormal.
  • Proposition 4's "∥g∥2≤R\|g\|^2 \le R∥g∥2≤R" for f′f'f′ is read as ∥g′∥2≤R\|g'\|^2 \le R∥g′∥2≤R; Proposition 6's "i≠,ji \ne, ji=,j" as i≠ji \ne ji=j; (56) is required for i≠ji \ne ji=j. The proof's variance display on p. 22 is wrong for d≥2d \ge 2d≥2, but the conclusion of Proposition 4 holds.

The goal is the ε\varepsilonε–τ\tauτ–LLL unfolding of the limit and mentions neither ρf\rho_fρf​, the KL bound nor the packing, so it cannot be discharged by any of the milestones' constructions in isolation; the distribution ρ\rhoρ is chosen after the algorithm, never before it.

Contributions welcome: a general Fano/DeVore-type lemma for finitely many hypotheses, the Varshamov–Gilbert bound, KL ≤ χ² for finite mixtures, and lemmas relating covForm to the excess risk.

Selected references

  • A. Caponnetto, E. De Vito, Optimal rates for the regularized least-squares algorithm, Found. Comput. Math. 7 (2007) 331–368. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-006-0196-8
  • R. DeVore, G. Kerkyacharian, D. Picard, V. Temlyakov, Approximation methods for supervised learning, Found. Comput. Math. 6 (2006) 3–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-004-0158-6
  • L. Györfi, M. Kohler, A. Krzyżak, H. Walk, A Distribution-Free Theory of Nonparametric Regression, Springer, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97848
  • A. B. Tsybakov, Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/b13794
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Functional AnalysisMachine LearningProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Rates for the Regularized Least-Squares Algorithm I: With λ Tuned to the Effective Dimension, Regularized Least Squares Attains the Rate ℓ^(−bc/(bc+1)) Uniformly over P(b, c) (Theorem 1)Research Paper

Motivation

Regularized least squares (RLS, also called kernel ridge regression or Tikhonov regularization) is the simplest learning algorithm built on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Given ℓ\ellℓ examples (xi,yi)(x_i,y_i)(xi​,yi​) drawn independently from an unknown distribution ρ\rhoρ, it returns the function in a hypothesis space H\mathcal HH that minimizes the empirical squared error plus λ\lambdaλ times the squared norm. It is used in regression, in multi-task learning with vector-valued outputs, and as the reference case for spectral regularization methods.

The basic statistical question is how fast the excess risk of the RLS estimator goes to zero as ℓ\ellℓ grows, and how to choose λ=λℓ\lambda=\lambda_\ellλ=λℓ​ to get that speed. Caponnetto and De Vito (FoCM 2007) answered it for a family of priors P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c) described by two numbers: the decay rate bbb of the eigenvalues of the covariance operator of the input distribution and the regularity ccc of the target function. Their Theorem 1 gives the upper rate ℓ−bc/(bc+1)\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}ℓ−bc/(bc+1); Theorems 2 and 3 show that no algorithm does better when the output space is finite dimensional. This mission formalizes the upper rate.

Timeline. Cucker and Smale (2002) and De Vito, Caponnetto and Rosasco (2005) gave rates for RLS that did not depend on the eigenvalue decay of ρX\rho_XρX​. Zhang (2005) introduced the effective dimension N(λ)\mathcal N(\lambda)N(λ) as the complexity measure. Caponnetto and De Vito (authors' copy dated 2006, published 2007) combined it with a source condition to obtain rates that are optimal over P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c), for vector-valued outputs. Steinwart, Hush and Scovel (2009) and Fischer and Steinwart (2020) later extended the analysis to other norms and to c<1c<1c<1.

Setting

The input space XXX is a Polish space and the output space YYY is a real separable Hilbert space. The hypothesis space H\mathcal HH is a real separable Hilbert space of functions f:X→Yf:X\to Yf:X→Y in which evaluation at each point is continuous. For x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, Kx:Y→HK_x:Y\to\mathcal HKx​:Y→H is the adjoint of evaluation at xxx, so f(x)=Kx∗ff(x)=K_x^*ff(x)=Kx∗​f. Hypothesis 1 adds a measurability condition and a uniform trace bound Tr⁡(Kx∗Kx)≤κ\operatorname{Tr}(K_x^*K_x)\le\kappaTr(Kx∗​Kx​)≤κ.

A distribution ρ\rhoρ on Z=X×YZ=X\times YZ=X×Y has marginal ρX\rho_XρX​ and conditional laws ρ(⋅∣x)\rho(\cdot\mid x)ρ(⋅∣x). The expected risk of f∈Hf\in\mathcal Hf∈H is E[f]=∫∥f(x)−y∥Y2 dρ\mathcal E[f]=\int\|f(x)-y\|_Y^2\,d\rhoE[f]=∫∥f(x)−y∥Y2​dρ. Hypothesis 2 asks that E∥y∥2<∞\mathbb E\|y\|^2<\inftyE∥y∥2<∞, that E\mathcal EE attains its infimum over H\mathcal HH at some fHf_{\mathcal H}fH​ (the minimizer of minimal norm is used), and that the noise y−fH(x)y-f_{\mathcal H}(x)y−fH​(x) satisfies a Bernstein moment condition with constants M,ΣM,\SigmaM,Σ.

The covariance operator T=∫XKxKx∗ dρXT=\int_XK_xK_x^*\,d\rho_XT=∫X​Kx​Kx∗​dρX​ is positive and trace class, with ⟨Tf,f⟩H=∫X∥f(x)∥Y2 dρX\langle Tf,f\rangle_{\mathcal H}=\int_X\|f(x)\|_Y^2\,d\rho_X⟨Tf,f⟩H​=∫X​∥f(x)∥Y2​dρX​ and eigen-decomposition T=∑ntn⟨⋅,en⟩enT=\sum_nt_n\langle\cdot,e_n\rangle e_nT=∑n​tn​⟨⋅,en​⟩en​, t1≥t2≥⋯>0t_1\ge t_2\ge\dots>0t1​≥t2​≥⋯>0. The prior P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c), for 1<b<∞1<b<\infty1<b<∞ and 1≤c≤21\le c\le21≤c≤2, consists of the ρ\rhoρ satisfying Hypothesis 2, with fH=T(c−1)/2gf_{\mathcal H}=T^{(c-1)/2}gfH​=T(c−1)/2g for some ∥g∥2≤R\|g\|^2\le R∥g∥2≤R (source condition), and with α≤nbtn≤β\alpha\le n^bt_n\le\betaα≤nbtn​≤β for all nnn (eigenvalue decay).

The RLS estimator fzλf_{\mathbf z}^\lambdafzλ​ minimizes 1ℓ∑i∥f(xi)−yi∥Y2+λ∥f∥H2\frac1\ell\sum_i\|f(x_i)-y_i\|_Y^2+\lambda\|f\|_{\mathcal H}^2ℓ1​∑i​∥f(xi​)−yi​∥Y2​+λ∥f∥H2​ over H\mathcal HH.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1, 1<b<+∞1<b<+\infty1<b<+∞

With λℓ=ℓ−b/(bc+1)\lambda_\ell=\ell^{-b/(bc+1)}λℓ​=ℓ−b/(bc+1) and aℓ=ℓ−bc/(bc+1)a_\ell=\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}aℓ​=ℓ−bc/(bc+1) for c>1c>1c>1, and λℓ=aℓ=(log⁡ℓ/ℓ)b/(b+1)\lambda_\ell=a_\ell=(\log\ell/\ell)^{b/(b+1)}λℓ​=aℓ​=(logℓ/ℓ)b/(b+1) for c=1c=1c=1,

lim⁡τ→∞lim sup⁡ℓ→∞sup⁡ρ∈P(b,c)Pz∼ρℓ[E[fzλℓ]−E[fH]>τaℓ]=0.\lim_{\tau\to\infty}\limsup_{\ell\to\infty}\sup_{\rho\in\mathcal P(b,c)}\mathbb P_{\mathbf z\sim\rho^\ell}\Big[\mathcal E[f_{\mathbf z}^{\lambda_\ell}]-\mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}]>\tau a_\ell\Big]=0.τ→∞lim​ℓ→∞limsup​ρ∈P(b,c)sup​Pz∼ρℓ​[E[fzλℓ​​]−E[fH​]>τaℓ​]=0.

The statement fixes the rate, not the constants: the threshold τ\tauτ absorbs every constant of the prior.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 iii)–v): the excess risk is ∥T(f−fH)∥2\|\sqrt T(f-f_{\mathcal H})\|^2∥T​(f−fH​)∥2; the regularized expected and empirical risks have unique minimizers fλ=(T+λ)−1TfHf^\lambda=(T+\lambda)^{-1}Tf_{\mathcal H}fλ=(T+λ)−1TfH​ and fzλ=(Tx+λ)−1gzf_{\mathbf z}^\lambda=(T_{\mathbf x}+\lambda)^{-1}g_{\mathbf z}fzλ​=(Tx​+λ)−1gz​.
  2. Proposition 2: a Bernstein inequality for means of i.i.d. Hilbert-space-valued variables.
  3. Theorem 4: with probability ≥1−η\ge1-\eta≥1−η,
E[fzλ]−E[fH]≤3Cη(A(λ)+κ2B(λ)ℓ2λ+κA(λ)ℓλ+κM2ℓ2λ+Σ2N(λ)ℓ),\mathcal E[f_{\mathbf z}^\lambda]-\mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}]\le3C_\eta\Big(\mathcal A(\lambda)+\frac{\kappa^2\mathcal B(\lambda)}{\ell^2\lambda}+\frac{\kappa\mathcal A(\lambda)}{\ell\lambda}+\frac{\kappa M^2}{\ell^2\lambda}+\frac{\Sigma^2\mathcal N(\lambda)}{\ell}\Big),E[fzλ​]−E[fH​]≤3Cη​(A(λ)+ℓ2λκ2B(λ)​+ℓλκA(λ)​+ℓ2λκM2​+ℓΣ2N(λ)​),

provided ℓ≥2CηκN(λ)/λ\ell\ge2C_\eta\kappa\mathcal N(\lambda)/\lambdaℓ≥2Cη​κN(λ)/λ and λ≤∥T∥\lambda\le\|T\|λ≤∥T∥, where Cη=32log⁡2(6/η)C_\eta=32\log^2(6/\eta)Cη​=32log2(6/η), A(λ)=E[fλ]−E[fH]\mathcal A(\lambda)=\mathcal E[f^\lambda]-\mathcal E[f_{\mathcal H}]A(λ)=E[fλ]−E[fH​], B(λ)=∥fλ−fH∥2\mathcal B(\lambda)=\|f^\lambda-f_{\mathcal H}\|^2B(λ)=∥fλ−fH​∥2 and N(λ)=Tr⁡[(T+λ)−1T]\mathcal N(\lambda)=\operatorname{Tr}[(T+\lambda)^{-1}T]N(λ)=Tr[(T+λ)−1T]. 4. Proposition 3: on P(b,c)\mathcal P(b,c)P(b,c), A(λ)≤λc∥T(1−c)/2fH∥2\mathcal A(\lambda)\le\lambda^c\|T^{(1-c)/2}f_{\mathcal H}\|^2A(λ)≤λc∥T(1−c)/2fH​∥2, B(λ)≤λc−1∥T(1−c)/2fH∥2\mathcal B(\lambda)\le\lambda^{c-1}\|T^{(1-c)/2}f_{\mathcal H}\|^2B(λ)≤λc−1∥T(1−c)/2fH​∥2 and N(λ)≤bb−1β1/bλ−1/b\mathcal N(\lambda)\le\frac b{b-1}\beta^{1/b}\lambda^{-1/b}N(λ)≤b−1b​β1/bλ−1/b.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 says that RLS with λℓ\lambda_\ellλℓ​ chosen from (b,c)(b,c)(b,c) achieves the rate ℓ−bc/(bc+1)\ell^{-bc/(bc+1)}ℓ−bc/(bc+1) uniformly over the prior, and the companion lower bounds show this is the minimax rate for 1<c≤21<c\le21<c≤2 and finite-dimensional YYY. The rate interpolates between the parametric rate 1/ℓ1/\ell1/ℓ (fast eigenvalue decay, smooth target) and slower nonparametric rates, and it identifies the effective dimension, rather than the dimension of H\mathcal HH, as the quantity that governs complexity. Theorem 4 is a non-asymptotic bound of independent use; it is the template for later analyses of spectral regularization, gradient descent with early stopping, and random-feature approximations of kernel methods.

The formalization. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of a kernel ridge regression rate is known to exist. A formal development requires a Bernstein inequality in Hilbert spaces, spectral calculus for a trace-class operator defined from a measure, and the operator-perturbation argument of Theorem 4. Two printed constants are corrected here: Theorem 4's proof yields 3Cη3C_\eta3Cη​, not CηC_\etaCη​, and Proposition 3's bound on N(λ)\mathcal N(\lambda)N(λ) has β1/b\beta^{1/b}β1/b in place of β\betaβ. The paper also states Theorem 1 for b=+∞b=+\inftyb=+∞; that branch fails for 1≤c<21\le c<21≤c<2 and is not posed.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds ∥fzλ−fλ∥H\|f_{\mathbf z}^\lambda-f^\lambda\|_{\mathcal H}∥fzλ​−fλ∥H​ by uniform concentration of TxT_{\mathbf x}Tx​ around TTT and multiplies by ∥T∥\|\sqrt T\|∥T​∥. That gives a variance term that ignores the eigenvalue decay of TTT, and hence a rate that does not improve with bbb. The optimal rate needs the variance measured through N(λ)\mathcal N(\lambda)N(λ), which requires controlling T(Tx+λ)−1\sqrt T(T_{\mathbf x}+\lambda)^{-1}T​(Tx​+λ)−1 in operator norm with high probability. This in turn needs concentration of (T+λ)−1/2(T−Tx)(T+\lambda)^{-1/2}(T-T_{\mathbf x})(T+λ)−1/2(T−Tx​) in Hilbert–Schmidt norm, and the condition ℓ≳N(λ)/λ\ell\gtrsim\mathcal N(\lambda)/\lambdaℓ≳N(λ)/λ under which the empirical operator is close enough to TTT. The noise is unbounded, so only the moment condition (9) is available, and the concentration step must use moment bounds rather than boundedness.

Formalization scope

H\mathcal HH is Mathlib's RKHS ℝ H X Y, and KxK_xKx​ is RKHS.kerFun H x. The trace in Hypothesis 1 is computed in a fixed Hilbert basis of YYY. ρX\rho_XρX​ is the first marginal and ρ(⋅∣x)\rho(\cdot\mid x)ρ(⋅∣x) is condKernel. The operator TTT is not built as an operator-valued integral. It enters through its quadratic form ∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩ dρX\int\langle f(x),g(x)\rangle\,d\rho_X∫⟨f(x),g(x)⟩dρX​ and through an eigen-system (en,tn)(e_n,t_n)(en​,tn​), indexed from 000, so (17) reads α≤(n+1)btn≤β\alpha\le(n+1)^bt_n\le\betaα≤(n+1)btn​≤β. The effective dimension is ∑ntn/(tn+λ)\sum_nt_n/(t_n+\lambda)∑n​tn​/(tn​+λ). Samples are Fin ℓ → X × Y under the product measure, and probabilities of events are outer measures. "With probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η" is stated as "the bad event has measure at most η\etaη". The noise condition and the moments of Proposition 2 are integrals of nonnegative functions with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

The hypotheses the paper uses but does not display are added: positivity of M,Σ,R,α,β,κM,\Sigma,R,\alpha,\beta,\kappaM,Σ,R,α,β,κ, and integrability of the random variable in Proposition 2. The RLS estimator of the goal is any family of minimizers of (18) for ℓ≥2\ell\ge2ℓ≥2; at ℓ=1\ell=1ℓ=1 and c=1c=1c=1 the parameter λ1=0\lambda_1=0λ1​=0 is degenerate. The goal quantifies uniformly: LLL is chosen before ρ\rhoρ, and the estimator is fixed before ρ\rhoρ. The goal must not be replaced by a statement about A,B,N\mathcal A,\mathcal B,\mathcal NA,B,N or by Theorem 4's event: it is the uniform rate for the estimator itself.

Reusable infrastructure: Hilbert-space Bernstein inequalities (Proposition 2 alone is a valuable target), spectral calculus for compact positive operators given by a quadratic form, and the representer/normal equation for vector-valued RLS. Contributions of proofs for any milestone, and of supporting lemmas about trace-class operators and effective dimension, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Caponnetto, E. De Vito, Optimal rates for the regularized least-squares algorithm, Found. Comput. Math. 7 (2007) 331–368. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-006-0196-8
  • F. Cucker, S. Smale, On the mathematical foundations of learning, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 39 (2002) 1–49. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0273-0979-01-00923-5
  • E. De Vito, A. Caponnetto, L. Rosasco, Model selection for regularized least-squares algorithm in learning theory, Found. Comput. Math. 5 (2005) 59–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-004-0134-1
  • T. Zhang, Learning bounds for kernel regression using effective data dimensionality, Neural Comput. 17 (2005) 2077–2098. https://doi.org/10.1162/0899766054323008
  • I. Pinelis, Optimum bounds for the distributions of martingales in Banach spaces, Ann. Probab. 22 (1994) 1679–1706. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176988477
  • I. Steinwart, D. Hush, C. Scovel, Optimal rates for regularized least squares regression, COLT 2009. https://www.cs.mcgill.ca/~colt2009/papers/038.pdf
  • S. Fischer, I. Steinwart, Sobolev norm learning rates for regularized least-squares algorithms, J. Mach. Learn. Res. 21 (2020) 1–38. https://jmlr.org/papers/v21/19-734.html
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Machine LearningOptimal TransportProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 3: The Scaled Robust Wasserstein Profile n^(ρ/2)·R_n(θ*) Is Asymptotically Stochastically Bounded by R̄(ρ)Research Paper

Motivation

Many statistical parameters are defined implicitly, as the root θ∗\theta_*θ∗​ of an estimating equation E[h(W,θ∗)]=0\mathbb E[h(W, \theta_*)] = \mathbf 0E[h(W,θ∗​)]=0: a mean, a quantile, a regression coefficient, the minimizer of an expected loss. Owen's empirical likelihood builds confidence regions for such parameters by asking how far the empirical distribution of the data must be reweighted before the equation holds, and the profile of that distance has a chi-squared limit (Owen, Empirical Likelihood, 2001).

Blanchet, Kang and Murthy replace reweighting by transport: they measure how much the data must be moved, in the sense of optimal transport, before the equation holds. The resulting Robust Wasserstein Profile (RWP) function plays the role of the empirical-likelihood profile, and its value at the true parameter is exactly the smallest radius of a Wasserstein ball around the data that contains a distribution satisfying the estimating equation. Its asymptotic law is therefore what is needed to choose the radius of Wasserstein distributionally robust estimators, such as the square-root LASSO and regularized logistic regression, in a data-driven way (arXiv:1610.05627, §§1, 3, 4). This mission formalizes the paper's main limit theorem, Theorem 3.

Setting

Let c:Rm×Rm→[0,∞]c : \mathbb R^m \times \mathbb R^m \to [0, \infty]c:Rm×Rm→[0,∞] be a cost. The optimal transport cost between probability laws PPP and QQQ on Rm\mathbb R^mRm is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:πU=P, πW=Q},D_c(P, Q) = \inf\{ \mathbb E_\pi[c(U, W)] : \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q \},Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:πU​=P, πW​=Q},

the infimum over all joint laws π\piπ of a pair (U,W)(U, W)(U,W) with the given marginals (Eq. (7)). In this mission c(u,w)=∥w−u∥qρc(u, w) = \|w - u\|_q^\rhoc(u,w)=∥w−u∥qρ​ with ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1 and q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞], and ppp denotes the conjugate exponent, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1.

Let h:Rm×Rl→Rrh : \mathbb R^m \times \mathbb R^l \to \mathbb R^rh:Rm×Rl→Rr be an estimating function, and let W,W1,W2,…W, W_1, W_2, \dotsW,W1​,W2​,… be i.i.d. random vectors in Rm\mathbb R^mRm with E[h(W,θ∗)]=0\mathbb E[h(W, \theta_*)] = \mathbf 0E[h(W,θ∗​)]=0. With Pn\mathbb P_nPn​ the empirical distribution of W1,…,WnW_1, \dots, W_nW1​,…,Wn​, the RWP function is

Rn(θ)=inf⁡{Dc(P,Pn):EP[h(W,θ)]=0}.(16)R_n(\theta) = \inf\{ D_c(P, \mathbb P_n) : \mathbb E_P[h(W, \theta)] = \mathbf 0 \}. \qquad (16)Rn​(θ)=inf{Dc​(P,Pn​):EP​[h(W,θ)]=0}.(16)

Write Dwh(w,θ∗)D_w h(w, \theta_*)Dw​h(w,θ∗​) for the r×mr \times mr×m Jacobian of w↦h(w,θ∗)w \mapsto h(w, \theta_*)w↦h(w,θ∗​), and ∥ζTDwh(w,θ∗)∥p\|\zeta^T D_w h(w, \theta_*)\|_p∥ζTDw​h(w,θ∗​)∥p​ for the ℓp\ell_pℓp​ norm of the row vector ζTDwh(w,θ∗)∈Rm\zeta^T D_w h(w, \theta_*) \in \mathbb R^mζTDw​h(w,θ∗​)∈Rm, ζ∈Rr\zeta \in \mathbb R^rζ∈Rr. The assumptions are:

  • A1) c(u,w)=∥u−w∥qρc(u, w) = \|u - w\|_q^\rhoc(u,w)=∥u−w∥qρ​, ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1;
  • A2) E[h(W,θ∗)]=0\mathbb E[h(W, \theta_*)] = \mathbf 0E[h(W,θ∗​)]=0 and E∥h(W,θ∗)∥22<∞\mathbb E\|h(W, \theta_*)\|_2^2 < \inftyE∥h(W,θ∗​)∥22​<∞;
  • A3) h(⋅,θ∗)h(\cdot, \theta_*)h(⋅,θ∗​) is continuously differentiable;
  • A4) for every ζ≠0\zeta \ne 0ζ=0, P(∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥p>0)>0\mathbb P(\|\zeta^T D_w h(W, \theta_*)\|_p > 0) > 0P(∥ζTDw​h(W,θ∗​)∥p​>0)>0.

A sequence XnX_nXn​ is asymptotically stochastically bounded by XXX, written Xn≲DXX_n \lesssim_D XXn​≲D​X, if lim sup⁡nE[f(Xn)]≤E[f(X)]\limsup_n \mathbb E[f(X_n)] \le \mathbb E[f(X)]limsupn​E[f(Xn​)]≤E[f(X)] for every continuous, bounded, non-decreasing fff.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 15)

Let H∼N(0,E[h(W,θ∗)h(W,θ∗)T])H \sim \mathcal N(\mathbf 0, \mathbb E[h(W, \theta_*) h(W, \theta_*)^T])H∼N(0,E[h(W,θ∗​)h(W,θ∗​)T]). Under A1)–A4),

nρ/2Rn(θ∗;ρ)≲DRˉ(ρ),n^{\rho/2} R_n(\theta_*; \rho) \lesssim_D \bar R(\rho),nρ/2Rn​(θ∗​;ρ)≲D​Rˉ(ρ),

where for ρ>1\rho > 1ρ>1

Rˉ(ρ)=max⁡ζ∈Rr{ρζTH−(ρ−1) E∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥pρ/(ρ−1)},\bar R(\rho) = \max_{\zeta \in \mathbb R^r} \Big\{ \rho \zeta^T H - (\rho - 1)\, \mathbb E\|\zeta^T D_w h(W, \theta_*)\|_p^{\rho/(\rho - 1)} \Big\},Rˉ(ρ)=ζ∈Rrmax​{ρζTH−(ρ−1)E∥ζTDw​h(W,θ∗​)∥pρ/(ρ−1)​},

and for ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1

Rˉ(1)=max⁡ζ: P(∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥p>1)=0ζTH.\bar R(1) = \max_{\zeta :\ \mathbb P(\|\zeta^T D_w h(W, \theta_*)\|_p > 1) = 0} \zeta^T H.Rˉ(1)=ζ: P(∥ζTDw​h(W,θ∗​)∥p​>1)=0max​ζTH.

The formal goal also asserts that Rn(θ∗)R_n(\theta_*)Rn​(θ∗​) is finite and measurable and that both maxima are attained; these are facts the paper's statement presupposes.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 3, App. A.3)

  1. Proposition 3 (p. 13): strong duality, Rn(θ)=sup⁡λ{−1n∑isup⁡u{λTh(u,θ)−c(u,Wi)}}R_n(\theta) = \sup_\lambda \{ -\frac1n \sum_i \sup_u \{\lambda^T h(u, \theta) - c(u, W_i)\} \}Rn​(θ)=supλ​{−n1​∑i​supu​{λTh(u,θ)−c(u,Wi​)}} when 0∈int⁡conv⁡h(Rm,θ)\mathbf 0 \in \operatorname{int} \operatorname{conv} h(\mathbb R^m, \theta)0∈intconvh(Rm,θ).
  2. (31)–(32) (p. 32): nρ/2Rn(θ∗)=sup⁡ζ{−ζTHn−Mn(ζ)}n^{\rho/2} R_n(\theta_*) = \sup_\zeta \{ -\zeta^T H_n - M_n(\zeta) \}nρ/2Rn​(θ∗​)=supζ​{−ζTHn​−Mn​(ζ)}, with Hn=n−1/2∑ih(Wi,θ∗)H_n = n^{-1/2} \sum_i h(W_i, \theta_*)Hn​=n−1/2∑i​h(Wi​,θ∗​) and the random penalty MnM_nMn​.
  3. Lemma 2 (p. 32): the supremum in (31) localizes to a compact set of ζ\zetaζ with high probability.
  4. (42) (p. 36): max⁡Δ{vTΔ−∥Δ∥qρ}=∥v∥pρ/(ρ−1)(1/ρ)1/(ρ−1)(1−1/ρ)\max_\Delta \{ v^T \Delta - \|\Delta\|_q^\rho \} = \|v\|_p^{\rho/(\rho-1)} (1/\rho)^{1/(\rho-1)} (1 - 1/\rho)maxΔ​{vTΔ−∥Δ∥qρ​}=∥v∥pρ/(ρ−1)​(1/ρ)1/(ρ−1)(1−1/ρ).
  5. Lemma 3 (p. 34): a uniform law of large numbers for the localized penalty.

Significance

Theorem 3 gives the rate n−ρ/2n^{-\rho/2}n−ρ/2 at which the RWP function at the true parameter vanishes and an explicit random variable bounding its rescaled limit. The (1−α)(1-\alpha)(1−α)-quantile ηα\eta_\alphaηα​ of Rˉ(ρ)\bar R(\rho)Rˉ(ρ) yields a radius δ=n−ρ/2ηα\delta = n^{-\rho/2}\eta_\alphaδ=n−ρ/2ηα​ for which the Wasserstein ball around Pn\mathbb P_nPn​ contains, with asymptotic probability at least 1−α1 - \alpha1−α, a law satisfying the estimating equation at θ∗\theta_*θ∗​ (§3.1, (19)); this is the paper's prescription for the regularization parameter of square-root LASSO and of regularized logistic regression (§4). Example 3 (p. 14) shows the bound is sharp for the mean: nρ/2Rn(θ∗)⇒σWρ∣N(0,1)∣ρn^{\rho/2} R_n(\theta_*) \Rightarrow \sigma_W^\rho |N(0, 1)|^\rhonρ/2Rn​(θ∗​)⇒σWρ​∣N(0,1)∣ρ. Matching lower bounds (Propositions 4 and 5) need further assumptions and are not part of this mission.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version of it, or of any RWP or empirical-likelihood limit theorem, is known to exist. A formalization would check the duality argument for the problem of moments, the passage from the dual representation to a localized maximization, and the continuous-mapping step, and would produce reusable statements: strong duality for transport-cost moment problems, the closed form of the conjugate of ∥⋅∥qρ\|\cdot\|_q^\rho∥⋅∥qρ​, and a uniform law of large numbers over a compact parameter set.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to apply the central limit theorem to HnH_nHn​ and pass to the limit inside the dual representation (31). This fails as stated, for two reasons. First, the supremum in (31) is over all of Rr\mathbb R^rRr, and convergence of the objective on compact sets does not control the supremum; Lemma 2 is needed, and it uses A4) through a lower bound on E∥ζˉTDh(W)∥pp\mathbb E\|\bar\zeta^T Dh(W)\|_p^pE∥ζˉ​TDh(W)∥pp​ that is uniform over the unit sphere. Second, the penalty MnM_nMn​ involves the derivative of hhh at points Wi+n−1/2ΔuW_i + n^{-1/2}\Delta uWi​+n−1/2Δu that are not localized, with no moment assumption on DhDhDh; the proof must truncate to ∥Wi∥p≤c0\|W_i\|_p \le c_0∥Wi​∥p​≤c0​ and to a specific near-optimal Δ\DeltaΔ, and then remove the truncation. The case ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1 differs: the inner supremum is 000 or +∞+\infty+∞, and the limit becomes a maximization over a constraint set.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin k → ℝ; ℓq\ell_qℓq​ and ℓp\ell_pℓp​ norms are Mathlib's PiLp norms, so q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ is allowed, with q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞] and p.HolderConjugate q. The samples are a sequence W : ℕ → Ω → (Fin m → ℝ), mutually independent (iIndepFun) and identically distributed with W 0, which plays the role of WWW; RnR_nRn​ uses W0,…,Wn−1W_0, \dots, W_{n-1}W0​,…,Wn−1​ through the published empiricalDistribution. Distinct samples are not assumed in Theorem 3; Proposition 3 and (31) keep the §3.1 assumption of distinct samples. Transport costs and RnR_nRn​ are [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]-valued lower Lebesgue integrals and infima; Rˉ(ρ)\bar R(\rho)Rˉ(ρ) is computed in the extended reals with the moment E∥⋅∥pρ/(ρ−1)\mathbb E\|\cdot\|_p^{\rho/(\rho-1)}E∥⋅∥pρ/(ρ−1)​ in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. HHH's law is multivariateGaussian 0 Cov on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin r).

The goal is a conjunction: finiteness of Rn(θ∗)R_n(\theta_*)Rn​(θ∗​) for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, its a.e.-measurability, attainment of the maxima in Rˉ(ρ)\bar R(\rho)Rˉ(ρ), and the limsup bound. Without the first three, a real-valued formalization could hold for the wrong reason (an infinite RnR_nRn​ converted to 000, a non-measurable integrand integrated to 000, or an unbounded supremum replaced by 000); the conjunction rules this out.

Readings of the page recorded in the items: A1) says q≥1q \ge 1q≥1 while (17) and the proof of Lemma 2 use q>1q > 1q>1, and q∈(1,∞]q \in (1,\infty]q∈(1,∞] is used; Proposition 3 is stated for a cost that is finite everywhere, the setting of §3, because for a cost that is infinite on part of the space the interior condition on h(Rm,θ)h(\mathbb R^m, \theta)h(Rm,θ) does not imply the Slater condition used in App. B; Lemmas 2 and 3 state the standing assumptions A1), A3) and i.i.d. sampling that their statements leave implicit. The localized weak limit (45) is not a milestone: its penalty Mn′M'_nMn′​ depends on a ζ\zetaζ-dependent near-optimal direction that is not stated precisely enough on the page.

Needed infrastructure: the multivariate central limit theorem (Mathlib has the real-valued one), Hölder duality for PiLp norms, a strong-duality theorem for moment problems (Proposition 7, quoted from Isii and Karlin–Studden), and a uniform law of large numbers. The duality results and the conjugate formula (42) are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and lemmas that serve them, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • A. B. Owen, Empirical Likelihood, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420036152
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01446
  • K. Isii, On sharpness of Tchebycheff-type inequalities, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 14, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02868641
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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🏆Completed
Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 85 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Klimov, Pil'tai, Sheptitskaya (1972): 115115115; Riesel–Vaughan (1983): 191919 for all integers, using zero-based prime-counting estimates.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's earlier values (100 001100\,001100001 down to 151151151) came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out, using only weak Chebyshev lower bounds for π(y)\pi(y)π(y). This entry keeps the same machinery as the 151151151 entry but feeds it Chebyshev's sharper lower bound ψ(x)≥ax−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge ax - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥ax−5logx+5 with a≈0.9212a \approx 0.9212a≈0.9212, obtained from the weights 1,−1,−1,−1,+11, -1, -1, -1, +11,−1,−1,−1,+1 at 1,2,3,5,301, 2, 3, 5, 301,2,3,5,30. No zeta-zero input is used.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤85, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 85,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤85, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 858585 filled in.

How the bound arises

Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/42\sigma(A) \ge 1/42σ(A)≥1/42, then conclude with Mann's theorem as in the 241241241 entry. Write L=log⁡yL = \log yL=logy for the scale.

  1. Chebyshev's constant a≈0.9212a \approx 0.9212a≈0.9212. For x≥30x \ge 30x≥30, ψ(x)≥ax−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge ax - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥ax−5logx+5 with a=715log⁡2+310log⁡3+16log⁡5a = \tfrac{7}{15}\log 2 + \tfrac{3}{10}\log 3 + \tfrac16 \log 5a=157​log2+103​log3+61​log5 (Chebyshev's argument with log⁡⌊x⌋!\log \lfloor x \rfloor!log⌊x⌋! and Stirling-type bounds; ported from the PrimeNumberTheoremAnd library with explicit bounds for log⁡3\log 3log3 and log⁡5\log 5log5). Since ψ(x)≤π(x)log⁡x\psi(x) \le \pi(x)\log xψ(x)≤π(x)logx, this gives π(x)≥(ax−O(log⁡x))/log⁡x\pi(x) \ge (ax - O(\log x))/\log xπ(x)≥(ax−O(logx))/logx. On its own it covers L≲76L \lesssim 76L≲76 through B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A.
  2. Small-shift range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, Lemma 8), 76≤L≤700076 \le L \le 700076≤L≤7000. Fix the first 300300300 odd primes p1≤1993p_1 \le 1993p1​≤1993 and let R(s)R(s)R(s) count s=p1+qs = p_1 + qs=p1​+q with qqq prime. Then ∑sR(s)\sum_s R(s)∑s​R(s) needs only the lower bound for π\piπ, and ∑sR(s)2\sum_s R(s)^2∑s​R(s)2 needs an upper bound for prime pairs q,q+dq, q + dq,q+d with a fixed even shift ddd. That bound is the Selberg sieve for a(a+d)a(a+d)a(a+d) on an interval, whose local data are those of the existing Goldbach sieve with s:=ds := ds:=d. The weight sum ∑p1≠p2C(p1−p2)\sum_{p_1 \ne p_2} C(p_1 - p_2)∑p1​=p2​​C(p1​−p2​) over these primes is a finite kernel computation. Cauchy–Schwarz then gives #{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/83\#\{s \le y : R(s) > 0\} \ge y/83#{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/83 on this range.
  3. Large range L≥7000L \ge 7000L≥7000: the Selberg pointwise bound r(s)≤b C(s) s/log⁡2sr(s) \le b\,C(s)\,s/\log^2 sr(s)≤bC(s)s/log2s with b=8.13b = 8.13b=8.13, the weighted first moment (now with constant a2a^2a2), the sixteenth moment of C(s)C(s)C(s), and Hölder, as in the 241241241 entry, at a much higher threshold.
  4. Mann's theorem turns 42 σ(A)≥142\,\sigma(A) \ge 142σ(A)≥1 into 42A=Z≥042A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}42A=Z≥0​, so every odd n≥171n \ge 171n≥171 is a sum of exactly 858585 primes (848484 odd primes plus one 333, padded with twos and threes for small nnn), and small nnn are handled with twos and threes: K=2⋅42+1=85K = 2 \cdot 42 + 1 = 85K=2⋅42+1=85.

Significance

The argument stays elementary: no prime number theorem and no zeros of ζ\zetaζ or LLL-functions. New reusable components:

  1. Explicit Selberg upper bound for prime pairs (q,q+d)(q, q+d)(q,q+d) with a fixed shift, uniform in ddd.
  2. The Riesel–Vaughan small-shift second-moment argument.
  3. A self-contained Lean proof of Chebyshev's lower bound ψ(x)≥ax−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge ax - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥ax−5logx+5 (a≈0.9212a \approx 0.9212a≈0.9212), carried into the sieve moments.

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 858585 in place of the value. Already proved on the platform: Schnir.sieve_ineq, Schnir.G_lower, Schnir.basis_of_density. Mathlib supplies the Chebyshev function ψ\psiψ with ψ(x)≤π(x)log⁡x\psi(x) \le \pi(x)\log xψ(x)≤π(x)logx and the Λ² sieve framework.

Selected references

  • H. Riesel, R. C. Vaughan, On sums of primes, Ark. Mat. 21 (1983), 45–74.
  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • Chebyshev's lower bound as formalized in PrimeNumberTheoremAnd (PrimeNumberTheoremAnd/IEANTN/Chebyshev.lean).
  • Explicit improvement of the 151151151 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 858585; not peer reviewed.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey 2: Uniformly Bounded Mean Return Times Make the Differential Discounted Values Uniformly BoundedResearch Paper

Motivation

Controlled Markov processes with the average cost criterion model systems that run indefinitely, such as queues, inventories, maintenance and communication networks, where only the long-run cost per unit time matters. The standard route to an optimal stationary policy goes through the average cost optimality equation (ACOE). The ACOE is usually obtained by the vanishing discount method: solve the discounted problem for each discount factor β<1\beta<1β<1 and let β→1\beta\to1β→1. The method works only when the differences of discounted values stay bounded as β→1\beta\to1β→1. Conditions that guarantee this are therefore central in the survey of Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (SIAM J. Control Optim. 31 (1993), §5).

This mission formalizes one such condition, due to Ross: if the mean return time to a fixed state is bounded uniformly over all stationary policies and initial states, the differential discounted value functions are bounded uniformly in the discount factor and the state.

Timeline. Derman (Management Sci. 9 (1962); survey reference [38]) and Derman–Veinott (Ann. Math. Statist. 38 (1967); survey reference [43]) introduced recurrence conditions of this kind for countable-state processes. Ross (Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968), survey reference [147]; Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, 1983, survey reference [150]) showed, for bounded costs, that under a Derman–Veinott type recurrence condition hβh_\betahβ​ is bounded uniformly in β\betaβ, and obtained a bounded solution of the ACOE by letting β↑1\beta\uparrow1β↑1 (survey, pp. 291 and 301). Later work replaced the condition with weaker ones (survey Assumptions 5.1–5.3) and with Sennott's conditions (survey Theorem 5.9).

Setting

The state space is S={0,1,2,… }S=\{0,1,2,\dots\}S={0,1,2,…}. In each state iii, an action aaa is chosen from a nonempty compact set U(i)U(i)U(i) of a metric space AAA. The one-stage cost c(i,a)c(i,a)c(i,a) is nonnegative and the next state is drawn from the transition law P(⋅∣i,a)P(\cdot\mid i,a)P(⋅∣i,a). For fixed i,ji,ji,j, the maps a↦c(i,a)a\mapsto c(i,a)a↦c(i,a) and a↦P(j∣i,a)a\mapsto P(j\mid i,a)a↦P(j∣i,a) are continuous on U(i)U(i)U(i). A policy π∈Π\pi\in\Piπ∈Π chooses the action at time ttt at random, given the whole history, and must choose from U(Xt)U(X_t)U(Xt​). A stationary deterministic policy f∈ΠSDf\in\Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ is a map f:S→Af:S\to Af:S→A with f(i)∈U(i)f(i)\in U(i)f(i)∈U(i). PiπP^\pi_iPiπ​ and EiπE^\pi_iEiπ​ denote the law and the expectation of the controlled process (Xt,At)(X_t,A_t)(Xt​,At​) started at iii.

For a discount factor β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), the discounted cost and the optimal discounted cost are

Jβ(i,π)=Eiπ[∑t=0∞βtc(Xt,At)],Jβ∗(i)=inf⁡π∈ΠJβ(i,π).J_\beta(i,\pi)=E^\pi_i\Big[\sum_{t=0}^\infty\beta^t c(X_t,A_t)\Big],\qquad J^*_\beta(i)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi}J_\beta(i,\pi).Jβ​(i,π)=Eiπ​[t=0∑∞​βtc(Xt​,At​)],Jβ∗​(i)=π∈Πinf​Jβ​(i,π).

A policy f∈ΠSDf\in\Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ is β\betaβ-discount optimal if Jβ(i,f)=Jβ∗(i)J_\beta(i,f)=J^*_\beta(i)Jβ​(i,f)=Jβ∗​(i) for all iii. The differential discounted value function is

hβ(i)=Jβ∗(i)−Jβ∗(0),h_\beta(i)=J^*_\beta(i)-J^*_\beta(0),hβ​(i)=Jβ∗​(i)−Jβ∗​(0),

measured relative to the fixed state 000. The return time to 000 is

τ=min⁡{t≥1: Xt=0},\tau=\min\{t\ge1:\ X_t=0\},τ=min{t≥1: Xt​=0},

with τ=∞\tau=\inftyτ=∞ if the process never returns. Throughout, as in §5.1 of the survey, the cost is bounded: c(i,a)≤Mc(i,a)\le Mc(i,a)≤M on admissible pairs.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

If there is a constant K>0K>0K>0 with

Eif[τ]<Kfor all f∈ΠSD, i∈S,(5.7)E^f_i[\tau]<K\qquad\text{for all } f\in\Pi_{SD},\ i\in S, \tag{5.7}Eif​[τ]<Kfor all f∈ΠSD​, i∈S,(5.7)

then there is a constant BBB such that

∣hβ(i)∣≤Bfor all β∈(0,1), i∈S.|h_\beta(i)|\le B\qquad\text{for all }\beta\in(0,1),\ i\in S.∣hβ​(i)∣≤Bfor all β∈(0,1), i∈S.

This is the theorem as printed: it asserts only uniform boundedness and fixes no constant.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1 (iii): for every β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), a β\betaβ-discount optimal fβ∈ΠSDf_\beta\in\Pi_{SD}fβ​∈ΠSD​ exists.
  2. (5.8): for such an fβf_\betafβ​, Jβ∗(i)≤M Eifβ[τ]+Jβ∗(0) Eifβ[βτ]J^*_\beta(i)\le M\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\tau]+J^*_\beta(0)\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\beta^\tau]Jβ∗​(i)≤MEifβ​​[τ]+Jβ∗​(0)Eifβ​​[βτ].
  3. (5.9): Jβ∗(i)−βJβ∗(0)≤MKJ^*_\beta(i)-\beta J^*_\beta(0)\le MKJβ∗​(i)−βJβ∗​(0)≤MK.
  4. Jensen step: Jβ∗(i)≥Jβ∗(0) Eifβ[βτ]≥Jβ∗(0) βKJ^*_\beta(i)\ge J^*_\beta(0)\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\beta^\tau]\ge J^*_\beta(0)\,\beta^KJβ∗​(i)≥Jβ∗​(0)Eifβ​​[βτ]≥Jβ∗​(0)βK.
  5. (5.10): Jβ∗(0)−Jβ∗(i)≤(1−βK)Jβ∗(0)≤(1−βK)M1−β≤MKJ^*_\beta(0)-J^*_\beta(i)\le(1-\beta^K)J^*_\beta(0)\le(1-\beta^K)\frac{M}{1-\beta}\le MKJβ∗​(0)−Jβ∗​(i)≤(1−βK)Jβ∗​(0)≤(1−βK)1−βM​≤MK.
  6. Explicit bound: ∣hβ(i)∣≤MK|h_\beta(i)|\le MK∣hβ​(i)∣≤MK. This is stronger than the goal and is the constant the survey's argument yields.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.3 verifies the hypothesis of the vanishing discount theorem (Theorem 5.2 of the survey) from a condition on the uncontrolled dynamics of stationary policies. Theorem 5.2 then gives a bounded solution (ρ,h)(\rho,h)(ρ,h) of the ACOE, an average optimal stationary policy, and the limit lim⁡β→1(1−β)Jβ∗(i)=ρ\lim_{\beta\to1}(1-\beta)J^*_\beta(i)=\rholimβ→1​(1−β)Jβ∗​(i)=ρ. Mean return times can often be estimated directly, for instance through Foster–Lyapunov drift arguments on queues, which makes (5.7) checkable in applications. The explicit bound MKMKMK also controls the span of the relative value function.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the literature; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A formal proof needs discounted dynamic programming on a countable state space with compact action sets, the existence of optimal stationary policies (Theorem 2.1 (iii), which the survey cites without proof), and the strong Markov property of the controlled chain at a return time. All of these are reusable well beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The estimates (5.9) and (5.10) are elementary once (5.8) and the existence of fβf_\betafβ​ are available. The weight lies elsewhere.

  • Optimal stationary policies. The infimum defining Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ ranges over all history-dependent randomized policies. Bringing it down to a single stationary deterministic policy requires the discounted optimality equation, a measurable selection of minimizers on compact action sets, and a verification argument against arbitrary policies.
  • Restarting at τ\tauτ. (5.8) splits the discounted cost at the random time τ\tauτ. The tail must be identified with βτ\beta^\tauβτ times the discounted cost from state 000. This is the strong Markov property for the process built by the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, applied at a stopping time that may be infinite.

Formalization scope

  • The state space is ℕ; the action space is a metric space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra. The model CMP carries compact nonempty U(i)U(i)U(i), a nonnegative measurable cost, and continuity of c(i,⋅)c(i,\cdot)c(i,⋅) and P(j∣i,⋅)P(j\mid i,\cdot)P(j∣i,⋅) on U(i)U(i)U(i), the standing assumptions of §5.
  • Policies are history-dependent, randomized and admissible. The path measure is Mathlib's Kernel.trajMeasure. Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ is an infimum over all such policies, not over Markov or stationary policies only.
  • Costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. hβh_\betahβ​ is the difference of the real parts of Jβ∗(i)J^*_\beta(i)Jβ∗​(i) and Jβ∗(0)J^*_\beta(0)Jβ∗​(0). This is exact here because bounded cost gives Jβ∗≤M/(1−β)<∞J^*_\beta\le M/(1-\beta)<\inftyJβ∗​≤M/(1−β)<∞.
  • Explicit choices:
    • The bounded-cost hypothesis c≤Mc\le Mc≤M on admissible pairs is a binder of every §5.1 statement. It is the section's standing assumption, and without it the theorem is false.
    • τ\tauτ counts from t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and takes values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, so (5.7) applies from i=0i=0i=0 and forces τ<∞\tau<\inftyτ<∞ almost surely; βτ=0\beta^\tau=0βτ=0 on {τ=∞}\{\tau=\infty\}{τ=∞}.
    • The typo βn\beta^nβn in (5.8) is read as βt\beta^tβt.
    • K≥1K\ge1K≥1 in (5.10) is not assumed; it follows from (5.7).
  • Theorem 2.1 is stated in the survey for Borel models under Assumptions 2.1–2.3. Here it is posed in the countable model, where those assumptions follow from the §5 continuity and compactness assumptions.
  • The goal's bound BBB is quantified before β\betaβ and iii. A per-β\betaβ or per-state bound would be trivial, since every hβ(i)h_\beta(i)hβ​(i) is a finite number.
  • Welcome contributions include discounted dynamic programming on countable state spaces, the strong Markov property for trajMeasure, and return-time estimates.

Selected references

  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993) 282–344. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
  • C. Derman, On sequential decisions and Markov chains, Management Sci. 9 (1962) 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.16
  • C. Derman, A. F. Veinott Jr., A solution to a countable system of equations arising in Markovian decision processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 38 (1967) 582–584 (cited as [43] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
  • S. M. Ross, Non-discounted denumerable Markovian decision models, Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968) 412–423 (cited as [147] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
  • S. M. Ross, Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Academic Press, 1983 (cited as [150] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Assessing Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs: The Single-Replication Confidence Interval on the Optimality Gap Is Asymptotically ValidResearch Paper

Motivation

Most stochastic programs of practical size, such as two-stage recourse models in energy, finance or supply-chain planning, cannot be solved exactly: the expectation in the objective is a high-dimensional integral. The standard remedy is sample average approximation (SAA): replace the expectation by an average over a Monte Carlo sample and solve the resulting deterministic problem. This produces a candidate solution x^\hat xx^ but says nothing about how good it is. A decision maker needs a statistical certificate: an interval that contains the candidate's optimality gap with a prescribed probability.

Mak, Morton and Wood (Oper. Res. Lett. 24, 1999) built such a certificate from ng≥30n_g\ge 30ng​≥30 independent SAA replications, which requires solving at least 30 optimization problems. Bayraksan and Morton (preprint January 2005, published in Math. Program. 108, 2006) showed that a single replication suffices asymptotically, and gave two variants that use two replications. This mission formalizes their validity theorems.

Setting

Let ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ be a random vector with distribution μ\muμ on a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ, let X⊆RdX\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd be a set of decisions, and let f:Rd×Ξ→Rf:\mathbb R^d\times\Xi\to\mathbb Rf:Rd×Ξ→R be a cost. The stochastic program is

z∗=min⁡x∈XEf(x,ξ~).(SP)z^*=\min_{x\in X} Ef(x,\tilde\xi). \qquad\text{(SP)}z∗=x∈Xmin​Ef(x,ξ~​).(SP)

Its optimal set is X∗X^*X∗, and the optimality gap of a candidate x^∈X\hat x\in Xx^∈X is μx^=Ef(x^,ξ~)−z∗≥0\mu_{\hat x}=Ef(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-z^*\ge 0μx^​=Ef(x^,ξ~​)−z∗≥0. The paper assumes throughout:

  • (A1) f(⋅,ξ~)f(\cdot,\tilde\xi)f(⋅,ξ~​) is continuous on XXX, with probability one;
  • (A2) Esup⁡x∈Xf2(x,ξ~)<∞E\sup_{x\in X} f^2(x,\tilde\xi)<\inftyEsupx∈X​f2(x,ξ~​)<∞;
  • (A3) XXX is nonempty and compact.

Let ξ~1,ξ~2,…\tilde\xi^1,\tilde\xi^2,\dotsξ~​1,ξ~​2,… be i.i.d. copies of ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​, and write fˉn(x)=1n∑i=1nf(x,ξ~i)\bar f_n(x)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f(x,\tilde\xi^i)fˉ​n​(x)=n1​∑i=1n​f(x,ξ~​i). The SAA problem is zn∗=min⁡x∈Xfˉn(x)z_n^*=\min_{x\in X}\bar f_n(x)zn∗​=minx∈X​fˉ​n​(x) (SPn_nn​), with an optimal solution xn∗x_n^*xn∗​. The gap estimator is Gn(x^)=fˉn(x^)−zn∗G_n(\hat x)=\bar f_n(\hat x)-z_n^*Gn​(x^)=fˉ​n​(x^)−zn∗​ (display (2)), and the sample variance of the differences f(x^,ξ~i)−f(x,ξ~i)f(\hat x,\tilde\xi^i)-f(x,\tilde\xi^i)f(x^,ξ~​i)−f(x,ξ~​i) is

sn2(x)=1n−1∑i=1n[(f(x^,ξ~i)−f(x,ξ~i))−(fˉn(x^)−fˉn(x))]2,s_n^2(x)=\frac1{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^n\Big[\big(f(\hat x,\tilde\xi^i)-f(x,\tilde\xi^i)\big)-\big(\bar f_n(\hat x)-\bar f_n(x)\big)\Big]^2,sn2​(x)=n−11​i=1∑n​[(f(x^,ξ~​i)−f(x,ξ~​i))−(fˉ​n​(x^)−fˉ​n​(x))]2,

with population counterpart σx^2(x)=var⁡[f(x^,ξ~)−f(x,ξ~)]\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x)=\operatorname{var}[f(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-f(x,\tilde\xi)]σx^2​(x)=var[f(x^,ξ~​)−f(x,ξ~​)]. Finally zαz_\alphazα​ is defined by P(N(0,1)≤zα)=1−αP(N(0,1)\le z_\alpha)=1-\alphaP(N(0,1)≤zα​)=1−α.

The single replication procedure (SRP) solves (SPn_nn​) once and reports the one-sided interval [0, Gn(x^)+zαsn(xn∗)/n]\big[0,\ G_n(\hat x)+z_\alpha s_n(x_n^*)/\sqrt n\big][0, Gn​(x^)+zα​sn​(xn∗​)/n​] (display (5)). The I2RP takes the variance from a second, independent sample ξ~n+1,…,ξ~2n\tilde\xi^{n+1},\dots,\tilde\xi^{2n}ξ~​n+1,…,ξ~​2n and its own minimizer xn2∗x_n^{2*}xn2∗​. The A2RP runs the SRP on both halves of a sample of size 2n2n2n, averages the gaps and the variances as in (10), and scales by 2n\sqrt{2n}2n​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 7)

Under (A1)–(A3), for x^∈X\hat x\in Xx^∈X and 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, provided α≤1/2\alpha\le1/2α≤1/2 or σx^2(xmax⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})>0σx^2​(xmax∗​)>0 (see Formalization scope),

lim inf⁡n→∞P(μx^≤Gn(x^)+zαsn(xn∗)n)≥1−α.(6)\liminf_{n\to\infty}P\left(\mu_{\hat x}\le G_n(\hat x)+\frac{z_\alpha s_n(x_n^*)}{\sqrt n}\right)\ge 1-\alpha. \qquad(6)n→∞liminf​P(μx^​≤Gn​(x^)+n​zα​sn​(xn∗​)​)≥1−α.(6)

Consistency (Proposition 1, p. 6)

The milestones follow the paper's own proof:

  1. the uniform strong law sup⁡x∈X∣fˉn(x)−Ef(x,ξ~)∣→0\sup_{x\in X}|\bar f_n(x)-Ef(x,\tilde\xi)|\to 0supx∈X​∣fˉ​n​(x)−Ef(x,ξ~​)∣→0 w.p.1;
  2. (i) zn∗→z∗z_n^*\to z^*zn∗​→z∗ w.p.1;
  3. (ii) every limit point of {xn∗}\{x_n^*\}{xn∗​} lies in X∗X^*X∗ w.p.1;
  4. the uniform convergence sn2→σx^2s_n^2\to\sigma^2_{\hat x}sn2​→σx^2​ on XXX w.p.1;
  5. (iii) σx^2(xmin⁡∗)≤lim inf⁡nsn2(xn∗)≤lim sup⁡nsn2(xn∗)≤σx^2(xmax⁡∗)\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})\le\liminf_n s_n^2(x_n^*)\le\limsup_n s_n^2(x_n^*)\le\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})σx^2​(xmin∗​)≤liminfn​sn2​(xn∗​)≤limsupn​sn2​(xn∗​)≤σx^2​(xmax∗​) w.p.1, where xmin⁡∗x^*_{\min}xmin∗​ and xmax⁡∗x^*_{\max}xmax∗​ minimize and maximize σx^2\sigma^2_{\hat x}σx^2​ over X∗X^*X∗;
  6. the ε\varepsilonε-bound of the proof of Theorem 2: if α≤1/2\alpha\le 1/2α≤1/2 and σx^2(xmin⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})>0σx^2​(xmin∗​)>0, then for 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1 the liminf in (6) is at least Φ((1−ε)zα)\Phi((1-\varepsilon)z_\alpha)Φ((1−ε)zα​).

Companions

Theorem 3 (p. 9) and Theorem 4 (p. 10) are the same coverage statement for the I2RP and the A2RP. Three further statements are included: the negative bias Ezn∗≤z∗Ez_n^*\le z^*Ezn∗​≤z∗ of display (1), the pathwise bound Gn(x^)≥fˉn(x^)−fˉn(x)G_n(\hat x)\ge\bar f_n(\hat x)-\bar f_n(x)Gn​(x^)≥fˉ​n​(x^)−fˉ​n​(x) for x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, and the consistency lim inf⁡nsn′2≥σx^2(xmin⁡∗)\liminf_n s_n'^2\ge\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})liminfn​sn′2​≥σx^2​(xmin∗​) of the pooled variance.

Significance

Theorem 2 makes a single SAA solve enough for an asymptotically valid upper confidence bound on the optimality gap. It cuts the computational cost of the multiple-replication procedure by a factor of about thirty, and it needs no asymptotic normality of Gn(x^)G_n(\hat x)Gn​(x^), which typically fails when (SP) has several optimal solutions. The two-replication variants lessen the small-sample under-coverage of the SRP. The single- and two-replication estimators were later reused in sequential sampling procedures for SAA.

As far as is known, none of these results has been machine-checked. A complete formalization needs a uniform strong law of large numbers over a compact parameter set, which is a reusable result in its own right, together with the SAA consistency theory and a central-limit argument for a statistic that is not itself asymptotically normal.

Difficulty

The obvious route would be to show that Gn(x^)G_n(\hat x)Gn​(x^) is asymptotically normal and apply a standard confidence-interval argument. That fails: zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ is a minimum of sample averages, and when X∗X^*X∗ is not a singleton its limit law is the law of a minimum of correlated Gaussians, not a Gaussian. The paper's argument has to bound the coverage from below without that limit law. It also needs to control the sample variance at a random, non-convergent minimizer xn∗x_n^*xn∗​, which only accumulates on X∗X^*X∗. The uniform strong law (Rubinstein–Shapiro, Lemma A1) on which both consistency statements rest is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses these conventions:

  • Decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). The paper's Rn\mathbb R^nRn is renamed Rd\mathbb R^dRd because nnn is the sample size.
  • μ\muμ is a probability measure on Ξ\XiΞ (the law of ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​), and Ef(x,ξ~)Ef(x,\tilde\xi)Ef(x,ξ~​) is the Bochner integral ∫f(x,⋅) dμ\int f(x,\cdot)\,d\mu∫f(x,⋅)dμ.
  • The sample is one infinite i.i.d. sequence ξ : ℕ → Ω → Ξ on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P), 0-based: ξ~i\tilde\xi^iξ~​i is ξ (i-1). The second sample of Theorems 3–4 is ξ n, …, ξ (2n-1), exactly as printed, and the A2RP's "random" partition is this fixed one, which has the same joint law.
  • Estimators are functions of a sample path. z∗z^*z∗ and zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ are infima of images of XXX, and X∗X^*X∗ is an argmin set.
  • Probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued, so the liminf in (6) is genuine. Proposition 1 (iii) is stated in its equivalent ε\varepsilonε-form, which avoids real liminf/limsup junk values.
  • zαz_\alphazα​ is any real with cdf (gaussianReal 0 1) zα = 1 - α.

Standing assumptions and pins. Every goal-level statement carries (A1)–(A3) and the i.i.d. hypothesis. Three hypotheses are made explicit that the paper leaves implicit:

  1. f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅) is measurable for each xxx ("f(x,ξ~)f(x,\tilde\xi)f(x,ξ~​) is a random variable");
  2. xn∗x_n^*xn∗​ is a measurable map that, almost surely, lies in XXX and minimizes fˉn\bar f_nfˉ​n​ over XXX on the same sample;
  3. (A2) is read as "sup⁡x∈Xf2(x,⋅)\sup_{x\in X}f^2(x,\cdot)supx∈X​f2(x,⋅) has an integrable majorant", which avoids proving that the supremum is measurable.

At n≤1n\le 1n≤1 the factors 1/n1/n1/n, 1/(n−1)1/(n-1)1/(n−1) and 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ evaluate to Lean's 000; every coverage statement is a liminf and ignores them.

Several encodings would trivialize the statement, and all are ruled out. The minimizer xn∗x_n^*xn∗​ must minimize the SAA problem of its own sample: a free xn∗x_n^*xn∗​, or one fitted to the other sample, would change the theorem. The second sample must not be replaced by an independent sequence. The quantile must not be pinned through an sInf. Positivity of σx^2(xmin⁡∗)\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})σx^2​(xmin∗​) is a hypothesis only of the ε\varepsilonε-bound, as on p. 8.

One correction of the paper. Theorems 2 and 4 are stated for every 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, but for α>1/2\alpha>1/2α>1/2 the paper's argument (replace xmin⁡∗x^*_{\min}xmin∗​ by xmax⁡∗x^*_{\max}xmax∗​) needs σx^2(xmax⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})>0σx^2​(xmax∗​)>0, and without it both statements are false: for X=[−1,1]X=[-1,1]X=[−1,1], f(x,ξ)=x2−2xξf(x,\xi)=x^2-2x\xif(x,ξ)=x2−2xξ, ξ~∼N(0,1)\tilde\xi\sim N(0,1)ξ~​∼N(0,1), x^=0\hat x=0x^=0 and α=0.9\alpha=0.9α=0.9, the SRP coverage tends to about 0.0100.0100.010 and the A2RP coverage to e−2zα2≈0.037e^{-2z_\alpha^2}\approx0.037e−2zα2​≈0.037, both below 0.10.10.1. The Lean goal and Theorem 4 therefore carry the hypothesis "α≤1/2\alpha\le1/2α≤1/2, or σx^2(x)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x)>0σx^2​(x)>0 for some x∈X∗x\in X^*x∈X∗". Theorem 3 is stated as printed.

Contributions are welcome at every level. The most reusable one is the uniform strong law of large numbers for Carathéodory integrands on a compact set with an integrable envelope, which also serves other SAA consistency results.

Selected references

  • G. Bayraksan, D. P. Morton, Assessing Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs, preprint (January 26, 2005); published in Math. Program. 108 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0720-x
  • W. K. Mak, D. P. Morton, R. K. Wood, Monte Carlo bounding techniques for determining solution quality in stochastic programs, Oper. Res. Lett. 24 (1999) 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(98)00054-6
  • R. Y. Rubinstein, A. Shapiro, Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method, Wiley, 1993 (Lemma A1, p. 67; Theorem A1, p. 69).
  • A. Shapiro, Monte Carlo sampling methods, in: Handbooks in OR & MS 10, Stochastic Programming, Elsevier, 2003, 353–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)10006-0
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling a Multi Class Queue with Many Exponential Servers: Asymptotic Optimality in Heavy Traffic: The HJB-Based Preemptive Policy Is Asymptotically Optimal Among Work-Conserving PoliciesResearch Paper

Motivation

Large call centers route several types of customers to a common pool of agents. When the pool is large and highly utilized, the relevant asymptotic regime is the quality-and-efficiency-driven (QED) or Halfin–Whitt regime (Halfin & Whitt 1981). The number of servers nnn grows while the offered load stays within O(n)O(\sqrt n)O(n​) of nnn. Waiting is then neither negligible nor overwhelming (Gans, Koole & Mandelbaum 2003).

Which class should a freed agent serve next? Exact optimization of a multi-class many-server queue with abandonment is intractable. The standard route is to solve a limiting diffusion control problem and translate its optimal control back into a policy for the queue. Atar, Mandelbaum and Reiman (Ann. Appl. Probab. 2004) carried this out for kkk customer classes, exponential service and abandonment, general renewal arrivals and general convex-type holding costs. They proved that the translated policy is asymptotically optimal. This mission formalizes that result for the preemptive policy.

Context:

  • Harrison & Zeevi (2004) studied the same multi-class many-server problem.
  • Bell & Williams (2001) proved asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy for a two-server system in conventional heavy traffic.
  • The present paper is the first to cover the QED regime with general costs and abandonment.

Setting

There are k≥1k\ge1k≥1 customer classes and nnn identical servers.

Primitives.

  • Arrivals. Class-iii customers arrive according to a renewal process AinA^n_iAin​ with interarrival times Uˇi(j)/λin\check U_i(j)/\lambda^n_iUˇi​(j)/λin​. Here the Uˇi(j)\check U_i(j)Uˇi​(j) are i.i.d., positive, of mean one and squared coefficient of variation CU,i2C^2_{U,i}CU,i2​.
  • Service. Service times are exponential with rate μin\mu^n_iμin​, represented by Poisson processes SinS^n_iSin​.
  • Abandonment. Waiting customers abandon at rate θin≥0\theta^n_i\ge0θin​≥0, represented by Poisson processes RinR^n_iRin​.

State. Xin(t)X^n_i(t)Xin​(t) is the number of class-iii customers in the system, Ψin(t)\Psi^n_i(t)Ψin​(t) the number in service and Φin=Xin−Ψin\Phi^n_i=X^n_i-\Psi^n_iΦin​=Xin​−Ψin​ the number waiting. The dynamics are

Xin(t)=Xi0,n+Ain(t)−Rin(∫0tΦin)−Sin(∫0tΨin),Ψn,Φn∈Z+k,∑iΨin≤n.X^n_i(t)=X^{0,n}_i+A^n_i(t)-R^n_i\Big(\int_0^t\Phi^n_i\Big)-S^n_i\Big(\int_0^t\Psi^n_i\Big),\qquad \Psi^n,\Phi^n\in\mathbb Z^k_+,\quad \textstyle\sum_i\Psi^n_i\le n .Xin​(t)=Xi0,n​+Ain​(t)−Rin​(∫0t​Φin​)−Sin​(∫0t​Ψin​),Ψn,Φn∈Z+k​,∑i​Ψin​≤n.

Policies.

  • A scheduling control policy (SCP) is the process Ψn\Psi^nΨn.
  • It is admissible if it does not anticipate the future beyond the time of the next arrival: past information is independent of future primitive increments.
  • It is work-conserving if no server idles while customers wait: (1⋅Xn−n)+=1⋅Φn(\mathbb 1\cdot X^n-n)^+=\mathbb 1\cdot\Phi^n(1⋅Xn−n)+=1⋅Φn.

Scaling and cost. In the QED scaling n−1λin→λin^{-1}\lambda^n_i\to\lambda_in−1λin​→λi​ with ∑iλi/μi=1\sum_i\lambda_i/\mu_i=1∑i​λi​/μi​=1. With ρi=λi/μi\rho_i=\lambda_i/\mu_iρi​=λi​/μi​ the centred processes are X^n=n−1/2(Xn−ρn)\hat X^n=n^{-1/2}(X^n-\rho n)X^n=n−1/2(Xn−ρn), Φ^n=n−1/2Φn\hat\Phi^n=n^{-1/2}\Phi^nΦ^n=n−1/2Φn and Ψ^n=n−1/2(Ψn−ρn)\hat\Psi^n=n^{-1/2}(\Psi^n-\rho n)Ψ^n=n−1/2(Ψn−ρn). The cost is

Cn=E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^n(t),Ψ^n(t)) dt.C^n=E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^n(t),\hat\Psi^n(t))\,dt .Cn=E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^n(t),Ψ^n(t))dt.

The limiting control problem. It controls

X(t)=x+rW(t)+∫0tb(X(s),u(s)) ds,b(x,u)=ℓ+(μ−θ)(1⋅x)+u−μx,X(t)=x+rW(t)+\int_0^t b(X(s),u(s))\,ds,\qquad b(x,u)=\ell+(\mu-\theta)(\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u-\mu x,X(t)=x+rW(t)+∫0t​b(X(s),u(s))ds,b(x,u)=ℓ+(μ−θ)(1⋅x)+u−μx,

where the control uuu takes values in the simplex Sk\mathbb S^kSk and WWW is a kkk-dimensional Brownian motion. The data are ri=(λiCU,i2+λi)1/2r_i=(\lambda_iC^2_{U,i}+\lambda_i)^{1/2}ri​=(λi​CU,i2​+λi​)1/2 and ℓi=λ^i−ρiμ^i\ell_i=\hat\lambda_i-\rho_i\hat\mu_iℓi​=λ^i​−ρi​μ^​i​. Its value V(x)V(x)V(x) is the infimum of E∫0∞e−γtL(X,u) dtE\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}L(X,u)\,dtE∫0∞​e−γtL(X,u)dt, with L(x,u)=L~((1⋅x)+u,x−(1⋅x)+u)L(x,u)=\tilde L((\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u,x-(\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u)L(x,u)=L~((1⋅x)+u,x−(1⋅x)+u).

HJB equation and the proposed policy. The HJB equation is 12∑iri2∂iif+H(x,Df)−γf=0\tfrac12\sum_ir_i^2\partial_{ii}f+H(x,Df)-\gamma f=021​∑i​ri2​∂ii​f+H(x,Df)−γf=0 with H(x,p)=inf⁡u∈Sk[b(x,u)⋅p+L(x,u)]H(x,p)=\inf_{u\in\mathbb S^k}[b(x,u)\cdot p+L(x,u)]H(x,p)=infu∈Sk​[b(x,u)⋅p+L(x,u)]. Let hhh be a measurable selection of its minimizers. The proposed preemptive policy (P-SCP) sets the queue vector to Θ[(1⋅Xn−n)+h(X^n)]\Theta[(\mathbb 1\cdot X^n-n)^+h(\hat X^n)]Θ[(1⋅Xn−n)+h(X^n)], an integer rounding, and falls back to a static priority rule when that is infeasible.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2(i)

For a Cpol2C^2_{\mathrm{pol}}Cpol2​ solution fff of the HJB equation, a measurable minimizer selection hhh, and initial states with X^0,n→x\hat X^{0,n}\to xX^0,n→x:

lim⁡n→∞E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^tn,∗,Ψ^tn,∗) dt  ≤  lim inf⁡n→∞E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^tn,Ψ^tn) dt\lim_{n\to\infty}E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^{n,*}_t,\hat\Psi^{n,*}_t)\,dt\;\le\;\liminf_{n\to\infty}E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^n_t,\hat\Psi^n_t)\,dtn→∞lim​E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^tn,∗​,Ψ^tn,∗​)dt≤n→∞liminf​E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^tn​,Ψ^tn​)dt

This holds for every sequence of work-conserving admissible SCPs, and the left-hand limit exists and is finite. No constants are hard-coded.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof:

  • on the diffusion side, Proposition 2 (well-posedness), Proposition 4 (stability and moment bounds), Proposition 5(i)–(ii) (growth and continuity of VVV) and Theorem 3 (VVV is the unique Cpol2C^2_{\mathrm{pol}}Cpol2​ HJB solution, and an optimal Markov policy exists);
  • on the queueing side, Proposition 1 (feedback rules give admissible SCPs), Lemmas 2–3 (moment bounds), Lemma 4(i)–(ii) (FCLT for the primitives and the fluid limit (Ψˉn,Φˉn)⇒(ρ,0)(\bar\Psi^n,\bar\Phi^n)\Rightarrow(\rho,0)(Ψˉn,Φˉn)⇒(ρ,0)), and Theorem 4(i)–(ii): lim inf⁡≥V(x)\liminf\ge V(x)liminf≥V(x) always, and lim sup⁡≤V(x)\limsup\le V(x)limsup≤V(x) under condition (49).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2(i) justifies using the diffusion control problem as a design tool for multi-class many-server systems. The policy is explicit given hhh, and it is optimal in the limit against all non-anticipating work-conserving policies, including those that use the full history and the time of the next arrival. The proof also identifies the limit cost with V(x)V(x)V(x).

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, with some steps (Proposition 1, the principle of optimality, the time-change and martingale limit theorems) given as sketches or citations. No part of it is machine-checked. A formalization requires:

  • a counting-process model of the queue;
  • a careful definition of non-anticipation;
  • a pathwise controlled SDE;
  • classical solvability of a semilinear elliptic HJB equation on Rk\mathbb R^kRk;
  • a weak-convergence argument in Skorokhod space.

Each of these is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would show that X^n\hat X^nX^n converges to the controlled diffusion and pass the costs to the limit. This fails for two reasons:

  • the comparison class contains arbitrary non-Markov, history-dependent policies, so the queue does not converge to a single controlled diffusion;
  • the optimal selector hhh is in general discontinuous (for linear costs it is), so the proposed policy is not a continuous function of the state.

The proof instead compares every policy with the HJB solution through Itô's formula on the prelimit processes. This needs:

  • uniform moment bounds;
  • tightness of the integral processes;
  • the convergence of stochastic integrals of Kurtz and Protter;
  • and, for the proposed policy, the fact that the rounding Θ\ThetaΘ and the priority fallback perturb the minimizer by O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2).

Existence of a classical HJB solution on all of Rk\mathbb R^kRk, with only Hölder-continuous costs and polynomial growth, rests on a bounded-domain existence theorem for fully nonlinear elliptic equations.

Formalization scope

The Lean development commits to the following conventions.

  • Indexing and norms. Classes are Fin k with k≥1k\ge1k≥1; paper class iii is index i−1i-1i−1, so "class kkk" (highest priority, rounding remainder of Θ\ThetaΘ) is the last index. Vectors are Fin k → ℝ and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the paper's ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm; the paper's ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣ on vectors is read the same way.
  • Probability space and paths. All systems share one complete probability space. Time is real and every condition is for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. The paper's "without loss" path regularity (finite arrival counts, Poisson paths Z+\mathbb Z_+Z+​-valued, nondecreasing and càdlàg) holds for every ω\omegaω.
  • Poisson processes are defined by independent Poisson increments; rate 000 gives the zero process.
  • Policies. A policy is a pair of real processes (Ψn,Xn)(\Psi^n,X^n)(Ψn,Xn) with integer values. Admissibility is Definition 2 verbatim, with the future σ\sigmaσ-field built from the next arrival time τin(t)\tau^n_i(t)τin​(t). Work conservation is (18).
  • Costs and value are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and lim⁡\limlim/lim inf⁡\liminfliminf are taken there. The integrands are nonnegative under work conservation.
  • Admissible systems range over sample spaces Ω : Type (universe 0). "Complete filtered probability space" means PPP complete with all null sets in F0\mathcal F_0F0​. Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal per coordinate, with independence and the (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​)-Brownian property stated explicitly. VVV is the infimum over systems and their controlled processes.
  • Discount rate. γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 is a hypothesis; the paper leaves it implicit.
  • Initial states are integer vectors X0,n∈Z+kX^{0,n}\in\mathbb Z^k_+X0,n∈Z+k​ with n−1/2(X0,n−ρn)→xn^{-1/2}(X^{0,n}-\rho n)\to xn−1/2(X0,n−ρn)→x. The literal "X^0,n∈n−1/2Zk\hat X^{0,n}\in n^{-1/2}\mathbb Z^kX^0,n∈n−1/2Zk" would require ρin∈Z\rho_in\in\mathbb Zρi​n∈Z. Assumption 1(ii) is not imposed: each policy chooses its own initial split.
  • Lemma 3 is stated for all nnn beyond a threshold that depends on the sequence, with constants c,mˉc,\bar mc,mˉ chosen before xxx and the sequence. The printed all-nnn bound with ccc independent of xxx fails when the early terms X^0,n\hat X^{0,n}X^0,n are large.
  • Weak convergence to a continuous limit uses the coupling form CouplingConverges of the published BellWilliams2001.ThresholdPolicy.Paths; convergence to a deterministic limit is UocInProb.

The goal hypothesizes fff and hhh with the pointwise identity b(x,h(x))⋅Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x))b(x,h(x))\cdot Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x))b(x,h(x))⋅Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x)) for all xxx. An arbitrary "optimal Markov control policy" may differ from a minimizer selection on the Lebesgue-null lattice where X^n\hat X^nX^n lives, and that formalization would make the goal false. Restricting the comparators to feedback, Markov or nonpreemptive policies, fixing kkk, dropping abandonment, specializing to Poisson arrivals or linear costs, or imposing a common initial split would each trivialize or weaken the statement and is ruled out.

Not formalized:

  • Lemma 4(iii) (tightness);
  • Lemma 5 (Kurtz–Protter, which needs semimartingale theory absent from Mathlib);
  • Lemma 6 (convergence of Stieltjes integrals at limit points);
  • Proposition 5(iii);
  • the nonpreemptive results, Theorem 2(ii)–(iii).

Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and especially on infrastructure: Poisson and renewal processes, functional central limit theorems in Skorokhod space, classical solvability of elliptic HJB equations, and measurable selection of minimizers.

Selected references

  • R. Atar, A. Mandelbaum, M. I. Reiman, Scheduling a multi class queue with many exponential servers: asymptotic optimality in heavy traffic, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14(3), 2004. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0407058
  • S. Halfin, W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for queues with many exponential servers, Oper. Res. 29(3), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • N. Gans, G. Koole, A. Mandelbaum, Telephone call centers: tutorial, review, and research prospects, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag. 5(2), 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.2.79.16071
  • J. M. Harrison, A. Zeevi, Dynamic scheduling of a multiclass queue in the Halfin–Whitt heavy traffic regime, Oper. Res. 52(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0109
  • S. L. Bell, R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers in heavy traffic with resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Ann. Appl. Probab. 11(3), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015345343
  • T. G. Kurtz, P. Protter, Weak limit theorems for stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, Ann. Probab. 19(3), 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990334
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey 5: Canonical Triplets Are Exactly the Solutions of the Coupled Optimality EquationsResearch Paper

Motivation

A controlled Markov process run under the long-run average cost criterion asks for a policy minimizing the asymptotic cost per stage. When every stationary policy induces a single recurrent class, the optimal average cost is a constant and is characterized by one equation, the average cost optimality equation (ACOE). In general it is not: under some policies the state process splits into several ergodic classes, different classes have different optimal costs, and the optimal average cost is a function ρ(x)\rho(x)ρ(x) of the initial state. This is the multichain case.

For finite models, Howard ([Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, 1960, pp. 61–62]) introduced a pair of coupled equations for this situation: one for the gain function ρ\rhoρ alone, and one, the ACOE, for ρ\rhoρ together with a relative value function hhh. Denardo and Fox (1968) developed the approach for finite multichain Markov renewal programs. For general Borel models, Yushkevich (1973) and Dynkin and Yushkevich (1979) introduced canonical triplets: a gain ρ\rhoρ, a terminal cost hhh and a policy π∗\pi^*π∗ such that π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal for every finite horizon NNN with terminal cost hhh, and the optimal NNN-stage cost is exactly h+Nρh + N\rhoh+Nρ. The survey of Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (SIAM J. Control Optim. 31 (1993), §6.1) states the link between the two notions as Theorem 6.2 and proves it on p. 317.

Setting

A controlled Markov process is a five-tuple (S,A,U,P,c)(\mathbf S, \mathbf A, U, P, c)(S,A,U,P,c):

  1. S\mathbf SS, the state space, and A\mathbf AA, the action space, are Borel spaces;
  2. U(x)⊆AU(x) \subseteq \mathbf AU(x)⊆A is the nonempty compact set of admissible actions at xxx, and K={(x,a):a∈U(x)}\mathbf K = \{(x,a) : a \in U(x)\}K={(x,a):a∈U(x)} is measurable;
  3. P(dy∣x,a)P(dy \mid x, a)P(dy∣x,a) is a transition kernel on S\mathbf SS given K\mathbf KK;
  4. c:K→Rc : \mathbf K \to \mathbb Rc:K→R is a measurable one-stage cost with c≥0c \ge 0c≥0 (the paper's standing Assumption 2.1).

A history is ht=(x0,a0,…,xt−1,at−1,xt)h_t = (x_0, a_0, \dots, x_{t-1}, a_{t-1}, x_t)ht​=(x0​,a0​,…,xt−1​,at−1​,xt​). An admissible policy π=(πt)\pi = (\pi_t)π=(πt​) is a sequence of stochastic kernels πt(⋅∣ht)\pi_t(\cdot \mid h_t)πt​(⋅∣ht​) on A\mathbf AA with πt(U(xt)∣ht)=1\pi_t(U(x_t) \mid h_t) = 1πt​(U(xt​)∣ht​)=1; the class of all of them is Π\PiΠ. A stationary deterministic policy f∈ΠSDf \in \Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ is a measurable map f:S→Af : \mathbf S \to \mathbf Af:S→A with f(x)∈U(x)f(x) \in U(x)f(x)∈U(x). An initial state xxx and a policy π\piπ determine a probability measure Pxπ\mathcal P^\pi_xPxπ​ on trajectories, with expectation ExπE^\pi_xExπ​. For a terminal cost hhh and N∈N0N \in \mathbb N_0N∈N0​,

JN(x,π,h)=Exπ[∑t=0N−1c(Xt,At)+h(XN)],JN∗(x,h)=inf⁡π∈ΠJN(x,π,h).J_N(x, \pi, h) = E^\pi_x\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{N-1} c(X_t, A_t) + h(X_N)\Big], \qquad J^*_N(x, h) = \inf_{\pi \in \Pi} J_N(x, \pi, h).JN​(x,π,h)=Exπ​[t=0∑N−1​c(Xt​,At​)+h(XN​)],JN∗​(x,h)=π∈Πinf​JN​(x,π,h).

Mb(S)\mathcal M_b(\mathbf S)Mb​(S) denotes the bounded measurable real functions on S\mathbf SS. For R,H∈Mb(S)R, H \in \mathcal M_b(\mathbf S)R,H∈Mb​(S) and π∗∈Π\pi^* \in \Piπ∗∈Π, the triplet (R,H,π∗)(R, H, \pi^*)(R,H,π∗) is canonical if

JN(x,π∗,H)=JN∗(x,H)=H(x)+NR(x)∀N∈N0, x∈S.(6.4)J_N(x, \pi^*, H) = J^*_N(x, H) = H(x) + N R(x) \qquad \forall N \in \mathbb N_0,\ x \in \mathbf S. \tag{6.4}JN​(x,π∗,H)=JN∗​(x,H)=H(x)+NR(x)∀N∈N0​, x∈S.(6.4)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.2

Let π∗∈ΠSD\pi^* \in \Pi_{SD}π∗∈ΠSD​, ρ,h∈Mb(S)\rho, h \in \mathcal M_b(\mathbf S)ρ,h∈Mb​(S), and ccc bounded on K\mathbf KK. Then (ρ,h,π∗)(\rho, h, \pi^*)(ρ,h,π∗) is a canonical triplet if and only if, for all x∈Sx \in \mathbf Sx∈S,

ρ(x)=inf⁡a∈U(x){∫Sρ(y)P(dy∣x,a)},(6.6)\rho(x) = \inf_{a \in U(x)} \Big\{ \int_{\mathbf S} \rho(y) P(dy \mid x, a) \Big\}, \tag{6.6}ρ(x)=a∈U(x)inf​{∫S​ρ(y)P(dy∣x,a)},(6.6) ρ(x)+h(x)=inf⁡a∈U(x){c(x,a)+∫Sh(y)P(dy∣x,a)},(6.7)\rho(x) + h(x) = \inf_{a \in U(x)} \Big\{ c(x,a) + \int_{\mathbf S} h(y) P(dy \mid x, a) \Big\}, \tag{6.7}ρ(x)+h(x)=a∈U(x)inf​{c(x,a)+∫S​h(y)P(dy∣x,a)},(6.7)

and π∗(x)\pi^*(x)π∗(x) attains the infimum in both (6.6) and (6.7).

Milestones (the steps of the proof on p. 317)

  1. One-step decomposition (last line of (6.8)): for f∈ΠSDf \in \Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​, JN+1(x,f,h)=c(x,f(x))+∫JN(y,f,h)P(dy∣x,f(x))J_{N+1}(x, f, h) = c(x, f(x)) + \int J_N(y, f, h) P(dy \mid x, f(x))JN+1​(x,f,h)=c(x,f(x))+∫JN​(y,f,h)P(dy∣x,f(x)).
  2. Dynamic programming step (second line of (6.8)): if JN∗(⋅,h)J^*_N(\cdot, h)JN∗​(⋅,h) is bounded and measurable, then JN+1(x,π,h)≥T(JN∗)(x)J_{N+1}(x, \pi, h) \ge T(J^*_N)(x)JN+1​(x,π,h)≥T(JN∗​)(x) for every admissible π\piπ, where T(v)(x)=inf⁡a∈U(x){c(x,a)+∫v dP(⋅∣x,a)}T(v)(x) = \inf_{a \in U(x)}\{c(x,a) + \int v\, dP(\cdot \mid x, a)\}T(v)(x)=infa∈U(x)​{c(x,a)+∫vdP(⋅∣x,a)} is the map (2.5).
  3. Sufficiency, lower bound: under (6.6)–(6.7) and JN∗=h+NρJ^*_N = h + N\rhoJN∗​=h+Nρ, JN+1∗≥h+(N+1)ρJ^*_{N+1} \ge h + (N+1)\rhoJN+1∗​≥h+(N+1)ρ.
  4. Sufficiency, upper bound: under (6.6)–(6.7) and JN(⋅,π∗,h)=h+NρJ_N(\cdot, \pi^*, h) = h + N\rhoJN​(⋅,π∗,h)=h+Nρ, JN+1(⋅,π∗,h)=h+(N+1)ρ≥JN+1∗J_{N+1}(\cdot, \pi^*, h) = h + (N+1)\rho \ge J^*_{N+1}JN+1​(⋅,π∗,h)=h+(N+1)ρ≥JN+1∗​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 6.2 turns a statement about every finite horizon and every history-dependent randomized policy into two pointwise equations in (ρ,h)(\rho, h)(ρ,h) and a pointwise selection condition on π∗\pi^*π∗. A canonical policy is NNN-stage optimal for every NNN with terminal cost hhh; dividing (6.4) by NNN shows that its average cost is ρ\rhoρ. In the paper this is the entry point of Theorem 6.3, which shows that a canonical policy is strong average optimal and that ρ\rhoρ is the optimal average cost, without any recurrence assumption. Equation (6.6) is the condition that makes ρ\rhoρ behave as a constant in the optimization; when ρ\rhoρ is constant it holds trivially, and Theorem 6.2 specializes to the bounded ACOE with a minimizing selector.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper (and earlier by Yushkevich). This mission formalizes that proof on a general Borel model with history-dependent randomized policies and path measures built by the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem. Prove2Me has no formalization of the multichain coupled equations or of canonical triplets beyond finite models. The finite-horizon dynamic programming inequality of milestone 2, for policies that may use the whole history, is reusable in any finite-horizon or average-cost development on Borel spaces.

Difficulty

The algebra in the proof takes a few lines. The work is in two probabilistic facts that the paper uses without comment.

The first is the Markov decomposition of the (N+1)(N+1)(N+1)-stage cost: conditioning on the first state–action pair turns the remaining NNN stages into an NNN-stage problem started from the next state. For a stationary policy the continuation is the same policy. For a history-dependent policy, the continuation is a policy that depends measurably on (x0,a0)(x_0, a_0)(x0​,a0​). Expressing this on the Ionescu-Tulcea measure is where the effort goes.

The second is the identity JN+1∗=T(JN∗)J^*_{N+1} = T(J^*_N)JN+1∗​=T(JN∗​). On a Borel model, JN∗J^*_NJN∗​ need not be measurable and the infimum need not be attained by a measurable selector. That is why the paper usually works with semicontinuous models (p. 288). Theorem 6.2 avoids the issue: only the inequality JN+1∗≥T(JN∗)J^*_{N+1} \ge T(J^*_N)JN+1∗​≥T(JN∗​) is needed, under the measurability that JN∗=h+NρJ^*_N = h + N\rhoJN∗​=h+Nρ supplies, and the reverse direction is supplied by the given π∗\pi^*π∗. A first attempt that proves the full identity JN+1∗=T(JN∗)J^*_{N+1} = T(J^*_N)JN+1∗​=T(JN∗​) for general Borel models runs into measurable selection problems that the theorem never needs.

Formalization scope

  • Model. BorelCMP S A has standard Borel S and Borel A, compact nonempty U x with measurable graph, a measurable cost c : S × A → ℝ with c ≥ 0 on K, and a Markov kernel P. c and P are total on S × A; only values on K enter. No continuity of c or P is assumed: Theorem 6.2 does not use Assumptions 2.2, 2.3 or 6.1.
  • Policies. Policy M is the paper's Π\PiΠ: history-dependent, randomized, with admissibility πt(U(xt)c∣ht)=0\pi_t(U(x_t)^c \mid h_t) = 0πt​(U(xt​)c∣ht​)=0. StationaryPolicy M is ΠSD\Pi_{SD}ΠSD​ (measurable fff with f(x)∈U(x)f(x) \in U(x)f(x)∈U(x)). The infimum JN∗J^*_NJN∗​ ranges over all of Policy M. Restricting it to stationary policies would make sufficiency trivial and necessity false, and is not what the paper states.
  • Costs. JN(x,π,h)J_N(x, \pi, h)JN​(x,π,h) is a Bochner integral against the path measure. Every statement assumes ccc bounded on K\mathbf KK and hhh bounded measurable, so the integral is a genuine expectation. JN∗J^*_NJN∗​ is a real infimum, which is the true infimum because the family is bounded below by −sup⁡∣h∣-\sup|h|−sup∣h∣ and nonempty whenever a stationary policy is given.
  • Coupled equations. (6.6) and (6.7) with "π∗(x)\pi^*(x)π∗(x) attains the infimum" are encoded in attained form: equality at a=π∗(x)a = \pi^*(x)a=π∗(x) and the inequality for every a∈U(x)a \in U(x)a∈U(x). This is equivalent to the printed condition and never forms a real infimum.
  • The gain is a function. ρ\rhoρ is a function of the state, not a constant. Specializing to a constant ρ\rhoρ (the unichain case) would trivialize (6.6) and is not the theorem.
  • Explicit choices. The paper's induction from N−1N-1N−1 to NNN is stated from NNN to N+1N+1N+1, so that no natural-number subtraction appears. Milestone 2 takes the measurability and boundedness of JN∗(⋅,h)J^*_N(\cdot, h)JN∗​(⋅,h) as a hypothesis, and takes any pointwise lower bound www of T(JN∗)T(J^*_N)T(JN∗​) in place of the infimum. In the second display of the sufficiency part, the paper prints JN−1∗(y,π∗,h)J^*_{N-1}(y, \pi^*, h)JN−1∗​(y,π∗,h); the quantity meant is JN−1(y,π∗,h)J_{N-1}(y, \pi^*, h)JN−1​(y,π∗,h), which milestone 4 uses.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs the Markov property of Kernel.trajMeasure at the first step, the shifted (continuation) policy and its measurability in the first state–action pair, and bounded-convergence bookkeeping for the Bochner integrals. These are reusable for every finite-horizon statement on this model. Proofs of the milestones are welcome independently. So are alternative proofs of the goal that bypass milestone 2 and argue directly with the canonical policy.

Selected references

  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993), 282–344, §6.1, Theorem 6.2. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
  • A. A. Yushkevich, On a class of strategies in general Markov decision models, Theory Probab. Appl. 18 (1973), 777–779.
  • E. B. Dynkin, A. A. Yushkevich, Controlled Markov Processes, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1979.
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1960, pp. 61–62.
  • E. V. Denardo, B. L. Fox, Multichain Markov renewal programs, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 16 (1968), 468–487.
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case VIII: The Infinite-Horizon Borel Models — the Optimality Equation J* = T(J*) under (P), (N), (D)Textbook

Motivation

Infinite horizon dynamic programming asks for the least expected cost of controlling a stochastic system forever, and for a policy attaining it. On finite or countable state spaces the theory has been classical since Bellman, Blackwell (1965) and Strauch (1966). Many models in operations research, inventory control, queueing and economics have continuous states and controls, however, and there the Bellman equation raises a question the countable theory never meets: the optimal cost need not be Borel-measurable, so its expectation under the transition law, which the equation requires, may not be defined.

Bertsekas and Shreve (1978) settled this question by working with lower semianalytic cost functions and universally measurable policies. In that framework the optimal cost is always measurable enough to be integrated, and the optimality equation holds with no continuity or compactness assumption. Chapter 9 of their book treats the infinite horizon model under the three classical cost structures: nonnegative costs (P), nonpositive costs (N), and bounded discounted costs (D).

Timeline:

  • 1965: Blackwell, discounted dynamic programming on Borel spaces with Borel-measurable data, case (D).
  • 1966: Strauch, negative dynamic programming, case (N), with Borel-measurable data.
  • 1978: Bertsekas and Shreve, Chapter 9: lower semianalytic costs and universally measurable policies, in all three cases (P), (N), (D).
  • 1979: Shreve and Bertsekas, the journal account of universally measurable policies.

Setting

An infinite horizon stochastic optimal control model (SM) is an eight-tuple (S,C,U,W,p,f,α,g)(S, C, U, W, p, f, \alpha, g)(S,C,U,W,p,f,α,g). The state space SSS, the control space CCC and the disturbance space WWW are nonempty Borel spaces, that is, spaces homeomorphic to Borel subsets of complete separable metric spaces. The control constraint UUU assigns to each state xxx a nonempty set U(x)⊆CU(x) \subseteq CU(x)⊆C, and the set Γ={(x,u)∣u∈U(x)}\Gamma = \{(x,u) \mid u \in U(x)\}Γ={(x,u)∣u∈U(x)} is analytic. The disturbance kernel p(dw∣x,u)p(dw \mid x, u)p(dw∣x,u) is a Borel stochastic kernel and the system function f:SCW→Sf : SCW \to Sf:SCW→S is Borel. The discount factor is α>0\alpha > 0α>0, and the one-stage cost g:Γ→[−∞,∞]g : \Gamma \to [-\infty, \infty]g:Γ→[−∞,∞] is lower semianalytic: each sublevel set {g<c}\{g < c\}{g<c} is analytic. The state moves by xk+1=f(xk,uk,wk)x_{k+1} = f(x_k, u_k, w_k)xk+1​=f(xk​,uk​,wk​), with transition kernel t(B∣x,u)=p({w∣f(x,u,w)∈B}∣x,u)t(B \mid x, u) = p(\{w \mid f(x,u,w) \in B\} \mid x, u)t(B∣x,u)=p({w∣f(x,u,w)∈B}∣x,u).

A policy π=(μ0,μ1,… )\pi = (\mu_0, \mu_1, \dots)π=(μ0​,μ1​,…) chooses uku_kuk​ at random from a universally measurable stochastic kernel μk(duk∣x0,u0,…,xk)\mu_k(du_k \mid x_0, u_0, \dots, x_k)μk​(duk​∣x0​,u0​,…,xk​) concentrated on U(xk)U(x_k)U(xk​); Π′\Pi'Π′ is the set of all policies. A policy is Markov if each μk\mu_kμk​ depends only on xkx_kxk​, and it is stationary if, moreover, μk=μ\mu_k = \muμk​=μ for all kkk. Writing qk(π,px)q_k(\pi, p_x)qk​(π,px​) for the law of (xk,uk)(x_k, u_k)(xk​,uk​) started from x0=xx_0 = xx0​=x, the cost of π\piπ and the optimal cost are

Jπ(x)=∑k=0∞αk∫g dqk(π,px),J∗(x)=inf⁡π∈Π′Jπ(x).J_\pi(x) = \sum_{k=0}^\infty \alpha^k \int g\, dq_k(\pi, p_x), \qquad J^*(x) = \inf_{\pi \in \Pi'} J_\pi(x).Jπ​(x)=k=0∑∞​αk∫gdqk​(π,px​),J∗(x)=π∈Π′inf​Jπ​(x).

For J:S→[−∞,∞]J : S \to [-\infty, \infty]J:S→[−∞,∞], the dynamic programming operators are

T(J)(x)=inf⁡u∈U(x){g(x,u)+α∫SJ(x′) t(dx′∣x,u)},Tμ(J)(x)=∫C[g(x,u)+α∫SJ dt]μ(du∣x).T(J)(x) = \inf_{u \in U(x)} \Big\{ g(x,u) + \alpha \int_S J(x')\, t(dx' \mid x, u) \Big\}, \qquad T_\mu(J)(x) = \int_C \Big[ g(x,u) + \alpha \int_S J\, dt \Big] \mu(du \mid x).T(J)(x)=u∈U(x)inf​{g(x,u)+α∫S​J(x′)t(dx′∣x,u)},Tμ​(J)(x)=∫C​[g(x,u)+α∫S​Jdt]μ(du∣x).

The three cases are (P) g≥0g \ge 0g≥0 on Γ\GammaΓ; (N) g≤0g \le 0g≤0 on Γ\GammaΓ; (D) α<1\alpha < 1α<1 and ∣g∣≤b|g| \le b∣g∣≤b on Γ\GammaΓ for some real bbb.

Formalization targets

Goal: the optimality equation (Proposition 9.8, Eq. (22))

Under each of (P), (N) and (D),

J∗=T(J∗).J^* = T(J^*).J∗=T(J∗).

Milestones

  • J∗J^*J∗ is lower semianalytic (Corollary 9.4.1).
  • For a stationary policy, Jμ=Tμ(Jμ)J_\mu = T_\mu(J_\mu)Jμ​=Tμ​(Jμ​) (Proposition 9.9).
  • Optimality tests for stationary policies: under (P) or (D), (μ,μ,… )(\mu, \mu, \dots)(μ,μ,…) is optimal iff J∗=Tμ(J∗)J^* = T_\mu(J^*)J∗=Tμ​(J∗) (Proposition 9.12); under (N) or (D), iff Jμ=T(Jμ)J_\mu = T(J_\mu)Jμ​=T(Jμ​) (Proposition 9.13).
  • Under (N) or (D), value iteration from 000 converges to J∗J^*J∗, and under (D) it converges uniformly from every bounded lower semianalytic start (Proposition 9.14).

Further statements of the mission

  • Markov policies suffice: at each state some Markov policy matches any policy's cost (Proposition 9.1), so J∗=inf⁡π∈ΠJπJ^* = \inf_{\pi \in \Pi} J_\piJ∗=infπ∈Π​Jπ​ (Corollary 9.1.1).
  • Partial converses of the optimality equation: J≥T(J)J \ge T(J)J≥T(J), J≥0J \ge 0J≥0 gives J≥J∗J \ge J^*J≥J∗ under (P); J≤T(J)J \le T(J)J≤T(J), J≤0J \le 0J≤0 gives J≤J∗J \le J^*J≤J∗ under (N); a bounded solution of J=T(J)J = T(J)J=T(J) equals J∗J^*J∗ under (D) (Proposition 9.10). The analogous statements for TμT_\muTμ​ and JμJ_\muJμ​ (Proposition 9.11).

Significance

The optimality equation is the basic structural fact of infinite horizon control. Corollary 9.12.1 uses it to construct optimal stationary policies from minimizers in the equation. The existence results for ε\varepsilonε-optimal policies (Propositions 9.19 and 9.20), the convergence analysis of value iteration in Section 9.5, and the reduction of imperfect state information problems in Chapter 10 all build on it. It holds for arbitrary Borel models, with no continuity or compactness assumption.

All results of the mission were proved in 1978. None of them has a machine-checked proof: Mathlib has stochastic kernels and the Ionescu-Tulcea construction for measurable kernels, but no theory of lower semianalytic functions, universally measurable kernels, or dynamic programming on Borel spaces. A formal development would fix the measurability bookkeeping on which the textbook proofs rest and supply a reusable substrate for the stochastic control papers that cite this book.

Difficulty

Under (D), TTT is a contraction on bounded functions, and its fixed point is the limit of value iteration. That argument, however, gives a fixed point only within a fixed class of measurable functions. Showing that this fixed point equals J∗J^*J∗ requires knowing that J∗J^*J∗ belongs to the class and that history-dependent randomized policies do no better. Under (P), value iteration can converge to the wrong limit (Example 1 of the chapter: lim⁡kJk(0)=0\lim_k J_k(0) = 0limk​Jk​(0)=0 while J∗(0)=∞J^*(0) = \inftyJ∗(0)=∞). Even when each JkJ_kJk​ is Borel, J∗J^*J∗ may fail to be (Example 2). So J∗=T(J∗)J^* = T(J^*)J∗=T(J∗) cannot be obtained as a limit of the finite horizon equations, and the natural class of Borel functions is not closed under the partial minimization that defines TTT.

The book's route lifts (SM) to a deterministic model on the space of probability measures P(S)P(S)P(S), where no measurability restriction is needed, and transfers the results back. Making this transfer rigorous requires that the cost of a randomized policy be a measurable functional of its law, and that the infimum over policies preserve lower semianalyticity.

Formalization scope

The draft fixes the following conventions.

  • Spaces. Borel spaces are topological spaces homeomorphic to Borel subsets of complete separable metric spaces, carrying their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras. Analytic sets are Mathlib's AnalyticSet. A set is universally measurable if it is null-measurable for every probability measure.
  • Extended reals. Values lie in EReal. The book's convention ∞−∞=−∞+∞=∞\infty - \infty = -\infty + \infty = \infty∞−∞=−∞+∞=∞ is implemented explicitly, because Mathlib's EReal sets ⊥+⊤=⊥\bot + \top = \bot⊥+⊤=⊥. The integral of an extended-real function is ∫f+−∫f−\int f^+ - \int f^-∫f+−∫f− with the same convention.
  • Policies. These are sequences of universally measurable stochastic kernels on the history spaces S0C0⋯SkS_0C_0 \cdots S_kS0​C0​⋯Sk​, charging U(xk)U(x_k)U(xk​) with mass one. The laws of (x0,u0,…,xk,uk)(x_0, u_0, \dots, x_k, u_k)(x0​,u0​,…,xk​,uk​) are built recursively from the kernels.
  • Costs. JπJ_\piJπ​ is the series ∑kαk∫g dqk\sum_k \alpha^k \int g\, dq_k∑k​αk∫gdqk​, computed as the difference of the series of positive and negative parts. Under each of (P), (N), (D) it coincides with the integral of the total discounted cost. J∗J^*J∗ is the infimum over all policies.
  • Case labels. Each statement carries the case labels the book attaches to it, as hypotheses on the model.
  • Scope. Only the (SM) statements are formalized. The deterministic model (DM) on P(S)P(S)P(S) is the book's proof device and enters no statement.

The goal admits a trivializing formalization that this draft rules out. J∗J^*J∗ is not defined as a fixed point of TTT, nor as the limit of Tk(0)T^k(0)Tk(0); it is the infimum of the costs of all policies, which under (P) can differ from that limit.

A complete development needs universally measurable kernels and their compositions on product spaces, measurability of x↦∫f(x,y) q(dy∣x)x \mapsto \int f(x, y)\, q(dy \mid x)x↦∫f(x,y)q(dy∣x) for universally measurable integrands, the measurable selection theorem of Jankov and von Neumann, and the closure of lower semianalytic functions under partial infimum. These are the subject of the series' mission on Chapter 7, and they are reusable for any stochastic control model on Borel spaces. Contributions are welcome at any level: these foundations, the Markov reduction (Proposition 9.1), or the case-by-case arguments.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978; Athena Scientific reprint, 1996. Chapter 9. https://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
  • D. Blackwell, Discounted dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36 (1965), 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • R. E. Strauch, Negative dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37 (1966), 871–890. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • S. E. Shreve and D. P. Bertsekas, Universally measurable policies in dynamic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 4 (1979), 15–30. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.4.1.15
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 159 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Klimov, Pil'tai, Sheptitskaya (1972): 115115115; Riesel–Vaughan (1983): 191919 for all integers, using zero-based prime-counting estimates.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's earlier values (100 001100\,001100001 down to 241241241) came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. Those arguments stall near 241241241 because the medium range relies only on a Chebyshev lower bound for π(y)\pi(y)π(y). This entry adds the small-shift idea of Riesel and Vaughan, which removes that bottleneck without any zeta-zero input.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤159, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 159,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤159, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 159159159 filled in.

How the bound arises

Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/79\sigma(A) \ge 1/79σ(A)≥1/79, then conclude with Mann's theorem as in the 241241241 entry. Write L=log⁡yL = \log yL=logy for the scale.

  1. Chebyshev constant log⁡2\log 2log2. Mathlib's ψ(x)≥(x−1)log⁡2−log⁡(x+2)\psi(x) \ge (x-1)\log 2 - \log(x+2)ψ(x)≥(x−1)log2−log(x+2) gives π(x)≥(xlog⁡2−O(log⁡x))/log⁡x\pi(x) \ge (x \log 2 - O(\log x))/\log xπ(x)≥(xlog2−O(logx))/logx, better than the constant 2/32/32/3 used in earlier entries. On its own it covers L≲90L \lesssim 90L≲90 through B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A.
  2. Small-shift range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, Lemma 8). Fix the first 150150150 odd primes p1p_1p1​ (up to 877877877) and let R(s)R(s)R(s) count s=p1+qs = p_1 + qs=p1​+q with qqq prime. Then ∑sR(s)\sum_s R(s)∑s​R(s) needs only π\piπ, and ∑sR(s)2\sum_s R(s)^2∑s​R(s)2 needs an upper bound for prime pairs q,q+dq, q + dq,q+d with a fixed even shift ddd. That bound is the Selberg sieve for a(a+d)a(a+d)a(a+d) on an interval, whose local data are those of the existing Goldbach sieve with s:=ds := ds:=d. The weight sum ∑p1≠p2C(p1−p2)\sum_{p_1 \ne p_2} C(p_1 - p_2)∑p1​=p2​​C(p1​−p2​) over these primes is a finite computation. Cauchy–Schwarz then gives #{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/158\#\{s \le y : R(s) > 0\} \ge y/158#{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/158 for 90≲L≤300090 \lesssim L \le 300090≲L≤3000.
  3. Large range L≥3000L \ge 3000L≥3000: the Selberg pointwise bound r(s)≤b C(s) s/log⁡2sr(s) \le b\,C(s)\,s/\log^2 sr(s)≤bC(s)s/log2s, the weighted first moment (now with constant (log⁡2)2(\log 2)^2(log2)2), a high moment of C(s)C(s)C(s), and Hölder, as in the 241241241 entry, at a much higher threshold.
  4. Mann's theorem turns 79 σ(A)≥179\,\sigma(A) \ge 179σ(A)≥1 into 79A=Z≥079A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}79A=Z≥0​, so every odd nnn beyond a small bound is a sum of 158158158 odd primes plus one 333, and small nnn are handled with twos and threes: K=2⋅79+1=159K = 2 \cdot 79 + 1 = 159K=2⋅79+1=159.

Significance

The argument stays elementary: no prime number theorem and no zeros of ζ\zetaζ or LLL-functions. New reusable components:

  1. Explicit Selberg upper bound for prime pairs (q,q+d)(q, q+d)(q,q+d) with a fixed shift, uniform in ddd.
  2. The Riesel–Vaughan small-shift second-moment argument.
  3. Chebyshev's log⁡2\log 2log2 constant from Mathlib carried into the sieve moments.

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 159159159 in place of the value. Already proved on the platform: Schnir.sieve_ineq, Schnir.G_lower, Schnir.pi_lower, Schnir.basis_of_density. Mathlib supplies the Chebyshev bounds (Chebyshev.psi_ge', Chebyshev.theta_le_log4_mul_x) and the Λ² sieve framework (Mathlib.NumberTheory.SelbergSieve).

Selected references

  • H. Riesel, R. C. Vaughan, On sums of primes, Ark. Mat. 21 (1983), 45–74.
  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • Explicit improvement of the 241241241 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 159159159; not peer reviewed.
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 151 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Klimov, Pil'tai, Sheptitskaya (1972): 115115115; Riesel–Vaughan (1983): 191919 for all integers, using zero-based prime-counting estimates.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's earlier values (100 001100\,001100001 down to 241241241) came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. Those arguments stall near 241241241 because the medium range relies only on a Chebyshev lower bound for π(y)\pi(y)π(y). This entry adds the small-shift idea of Riesel and Vaughan, which removes that bottleneck without any zeta-zero input.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤151, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 151,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤151, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 151151151 filled in.

How the bound arises

Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/75\sigma(A) \ge 1/75σ(A)≥1/75, then conclude with Mann's theorem as in the 241241241 entry. Write L=log⁡yL = \log yL=logy for the scale.

  1. Chebyshev constant log⁡2\log 2log2. Mathlib's ψ(x)≥(x−1)log⁡2−log⁡(x+2)\psi(x) \ge (x-1)\log 2 - \log(x+2)ψ(x)≥(x−1)log2−log(x+2) gives π(x)≥(xlog⁡2−O(log⁡x))/log⁡x\pi(x) \ge (x \log 2 - O(\log x))/\log xπ(x)≥(xlog2−O(logx))/logx, better than the constant 2/32/32/3 used in earlier entries. On its own it covers L≲90L \lesssim 90L≲90 through B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A.
  2. Small-shift range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, Lemma 8). Fix the first 500500500 odd primes p1p_1p1​ (up to 358135813581) and let R(s)R(s)R(s) count s=p1+qs = p_1 + qs=p1​+q with qqq prime. Then ∑sR(s)\sum_s R(s)∑s​R(s) needs only π\piπ, and ∑sR(s)2\sum_s R(s)^2∑s​R(s)2 needs an upper bound for prime pairs q,q+dq, q + dq,q+d with a fixed even shift ddd. That bound is the Selberg sieve for a(a+d)a(a+d)a(a+d) on an interval, whose local data are those of the existing Goldbach sieve with s:=ds := ds:=d. The weight sum ∑p1≠p2C(p1−p2)\sum_{p_1 \ne p_2} C(p_1 - p_2)∑p1​=p2​​C(p1​−p2​) over these primes is a finite computation. Cauchy–Schwarz then gives #{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/150\#\{s \le y : R(s) > 0\} \ge y/150#{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/150 for 90≲L≤10490 \lesssim L \le 10^490≲L≤104.
  3. Large range L≥104L \ge 10^4L≥104: the Selberg pointwise bound r(s)≤b C(s) s/log⁡2sr(s) \le b\,C(s)\,s/\log^2 sr(s)≤bC(s)s/log2s, the weighted first moment (now with constant (log⁡2)2(\log 2)^2(log2)2), a high moment of C(s)C(s)C(s), and Hölder, as in the 241241241 entry, at a much higher threshold.
  4. Mann's theorem turns 75 σ(A)≥175\,\sigma(A) \ge 175σ(A)≥1 into 75A=Z≥075A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}75A=Z≥0​, so every odd nnn beyond a small bound is a sum of 150150150 odd primes plus one 333, and small nnn are handled with twos and threes: K=2⋅75+1=151K = 2 \cdot 75 + 1 = 151K=2⋅75+1=151.

Significance

The argument stays elementary: no prime number theorem and no zeros of ζ\zetaζ or LLL-functions. New reusable components:

  1. Explicit Selberg upper bound for prime pairs (q,q+d)(q, q+d)(q,q+d) with a fixed shift, uniform in ddd.
  2. The Riesel–Vaughan small-shift second-moment argument.
  3. Chebyshev's log⁡2\log 2log2 constant from Mathlib carried into the sieve moments.

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 151151151 in place of the value. Already proved on the platform: Schnir.sieve_ineq, Schnir.G_lower, Schnir.pi_lower, Schnir.basis_of_density. Mathlib supplies the Chebyshev bounds (Chebyshev.psi_ge', Chebyshev.theta_le_log4_mul_x) and the Λ² sieve framework (Mathlib.NumberTheory.SelbergSieve).

Selected references

  • H. Riesel, R. C. Vaughan, On sums of primes, Ark. Mat. 21 (1983), 45–74.
  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • Explicit improvement of the 241241241 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 151151151; not peer reviewed.
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 241 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Vinogradov (1937): every sufficiently large odd integer is a sum of three primes.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's first proved value, 100 001100\,001100001, came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. This entry records a sharper value, 241241241, from the same elementary circle of ideas.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤241, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 241,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤241, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 241241241 filled in. The argument proves the stronger statement that every odd n≥483n \ge 483n≥483 is a sum of exactly 241241241 primes; the at-most form for all odd n>1n > 1n>1 follows.

How the bound arises

It follows the companion 351351351 entry, with every parameter pushed to the limit of the same tools. Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/120\sigma(A) \ge 1/120σ(A)≥1/120:

  1. Sieve at a low threshold. The explicit Selberg inequality with z=s/(log⁡s)2z = \sqrt{s}/(\log s)^2z=s​/(logs)2 gives r(s)≤454 C(s) s/(log⁡s)2r(s) \le \tfrac{45}{4}\,C(s)\,s/(\log s)^2r(s)≤445​C(s)s/(logs)2 for even s≥e130s \ge e^{130}s≥e130, where r(s)r(s)r(s) counts representations s=p+qs = p + qs=p+q by odd primes and C(s)=∏p∣s(1+p/(p−1)2)C(s) = \prod_{p \mid s}\bigl(1 + p/(p-1)^2\bigr)C(s)=∏p∣s​(1+p/(p−1)2).
  2. Weighted first moment. ∑e130<s≤xr(s) (log⁡s)2/s≥0.439 x\sum_{e^{130} < s \le x} r(s)\,(\log s)^2/s \ge 0.439\,x∑e130<s≤x​r(s)(logs)2/s≥0.439x for x≥e159x \ge e^{159}x≥e159.
  3. Sixteenth moment of CCC. Expanding C(s)16C(s)^{16}C(s)16 over squarefree divisors, treating the primes up to 313131 exactly and bounding the tail in one step, gives ∑s≤x, 2∣sC(s)16≤9.44⋅1012 x\sum_{s \le x,\, 2 \mid s} C(s)^{16} \le 9.44 \cdot 10^{12}\, x∑s≤x,2∣s​C(s)16≤9.44⋅1012x.
  4. Hölder with exponent 161616 then gives #{s≤x:r(s)>0}≥x/238\#\{s \le x : r(s) > 0\} \ge x/238#{s≤x:r(s)>0}≥x/238 for x≥e159x \ge e^{159}x≥e159. Below that scale, Chebyshev's bound π(y)−1≥2y/(3log⁡y)\pi(y) - 1 \ge 2y/(3 \log y)π(y)−1≥2y/(3logy) and B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A suffice, so σ(A)≥1/120\sigma(A) \ge 1/120σ(A)≥1/120 at every scale.
  5. Mann's theorem, σ(D+E)≥min⁡{1,σ(D)+σ(E)}\sigma(D + E) \ge \min\{1, \sigma(D) + \sigma(E)\}σ(D+E)≥min{1,σ(D)+σ(E)} for sets containing 000, gives 120A=Z≥0120A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}120A=Z≥0​, so 240B=Z≥0240B = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}240B=Z≥0​. For odd n≥3K=723n \ge 3K = 723n≥3K=723, write (n−3K)/2(n - 3K)/2(n−3K)/2 as a sum of 240240240 elements of BBB and add one more 333. For 483≤n<723483 \le n < 723483≤n<723, use n−2Kn - 2Kn−2K threes and 3K−n3K - n3K−n twos. This gives K=241K = 241K=241.

About 241241241 is the floor of this method: the medium range relies on the Chebyshev constant 2/32/32/3, which forces the sieve threshold below e4k/3e^{4k/3}e4k/3 and so inflates the sieve coefficient.

Significance

The bound is far weaker than Tao's 555 or Helfgott's 333, but it rests on an elementary argument with no "sufficiently large" threshold and no prime number theorem, so it is a realistic target for a complete formalization. Reusable components:

  1. Explicit Chebyshev-type lower bound for π(y)\pi(y)π(y).
  2. Explicit Selberg upper-bound sieve for r(s)r(s)r(s) at an arbitrary threshold.
  3. High moments ∑s≤xC(s)q\sum_{s \le x} C(s)^{q}∑s≤x​C(s)q of the singular-series factor.
  4. Mann's theorem (αβ\alpha\betaαβ theorem) on Schnirelmann density.

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 241241241 in place of the value. All the ingredients above except the moment bound and the final assembly are already proved on the platform (Schnir.sieve_ineq, Schnir.G_lower, Schnir.pi_lower, Schnir.basis_of_density).

Selected references

  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • H. A. Helfgott, The ternary Goldbach conjecture is true, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.7748
  • Explicit improvement of the 100 001100\,001100001 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026), extending the 351351351 entry. Source of the constant 241241241; not peer reviewed.
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Dynamical SystemsFunctional Analysis·Captain: dbenbenn

Connes–Feldman–Weiss: an amenable equivalence relation is generated by a single transformationResearch Paper

This mission formalizes A. Connes, J. Feldman and B. Weiss, An amenable equivalence relation is generated by a single transformation, Ergodic Theory Dynam. Systems 1 (1981) 431–450 (doi:10.1017/S014338570000136X).

Motivation

A countable group acting on a measure space partitions it into countable orbits, and much of ergodic theory studies actions only through this orbit equivalence relation. The simplest relations are those of a single transformation, the orbits of an action of Z\mathbb ZZ. Connes, Feldman and Weiss characterize exactly which relations are of this kind, up to null sets: the amenable ones, those carrying an invariant mean. Since the orbit relation of any action of a countable amenable group is amenable, every such action is orbit equivalent to an action of Z\mathbb ZZ. The same theorem gives the uniqueness of Cartan subalgebras in hyperfinite von Neumann algebras.

On this platform it is the missing link in the Lodha–Moore mission, which passes between Lodha and Moore's definition of a μ\muμ-amenable relation (an orbit relation of Z\mathbb ZZ off a null set) and the invariant-mean definition of the Monod bundle: one direction is proved, the other (LodhaMoore.isMuAmenable_of_isAmenableRel) is this mission's goal in Lodha and Moore's language.

Timeline.

  • 1959, 1963: Dye proves orbit equivalence for measure-preserving actions of abelian groups and groups of polynomial growth (doi:10.2307/2372852, doi:10.2307/2373108).
  • 1976: Krieger classifies non-singular transformations up to orbit equivalence (doi:10.1007/BF01360278).
  • 1977: Feldman and Moore set up countable Borel equivalence relations and their von Neumann algebras (doi:10.1090/S0002-9947-1977-0578656-4).
  • 1978: Zimmer introduces amenable actions and shows that discrete subgroups act amenably on G/PG/PG/P for PPP amenable (doi:10.1016/0022-1236(78)90013-7).
  • 1980: Ornstein and Weiss prove that every measure-preserving action of a countable amenable group is orbit equivalent to an action of Z\mathbb ZZ (doi:10.1090/S0273-0979-1980-14702-3).
  • 1981: Connes, Feldman and Weiss prove it for every amenable non-singular countable equivalence relation, without a group.
  • 2004: Kechris and Miller give a detailed modern account in Topics in orbit equivalence (doi:10.1007/b99421).

Setting

XXX is a standard Borel space with a σ\sigmaσ-finite measure μ\muμ. A discrete measured equivalence relation (IsDiscreteMeasured μ R) is a Borel equivalence relation R⊆X×XR \subseteq X \times XR⊆X×X whose classes are countable and for which μ\muμ is quasi-invariant: the saturation R(A)={x∣∃y∈A,(x,y)∈R}R(A) = \{x \mid \exists y \in A, (x, y) \in R\}R(A)={x∣∃y∈A,(x,y)∈R} of a null Borel set AAA is null.

RRR carries the measure m=∫νx dμ(x)m = \int \nu^x\, d\mu(x)m=∫νxdμ(x), νx\nu^xνx the counting measure on the class of xxx (relMeasure), and the module δ\deltaδ, the density of mmm against its image under (x,y)↦(y,x)(x, y) \mapsto (y, x)(x,y)↦(y,x) (module). A partial transformation of RRR is a Borel bijection between Borel subsets of XXX whose graph lies in RRR (Monod.PartialTransformation).

RRR is amenable (Monod.IsAmenableRel) when it has a left invariant mean: a positive normalized map PPP from bounded functions on RRR to bounded functions on XXX with P(fϕ)=(Pf)ϕP(f^\phi) = (Pf)^\phiP(fϕ)=(Pf)ϕ for every partial transformation ϕ\phiϕ (Definitions 5–6). RRR is of type I (IsTypeI) when, off a null saturated set, its quotient is a standard Borel space, and hyperfinite (IsHyperfinite) when, off a null set, it is a countable increasing union of type I equivalence relations (Definition 1). A finite subequivalence relation (IsFiniteSubrelation) is a Borel T⊆RT \subseteq RT⊆R that is an equivalence relation with finite classes on T(0)={x∣(x,x)∈T}T^{(0)} = \{x \mid (x, x) \in T\}T(0)={x∣(x,x)∈T}.

Formalization targets

Goal (p. 431)

For RRR amenable there are a non-singular Borel automorphism TTT of XXX and a null set NNN with

(x,y)∈R  ⟺  ∃n∈Z, y=Tnx(x,y∉N).(x, y) \in R \iff \exists n \in \mathbb Z,\ y = T^n x \qquad (x, y \notin N).(x,y)∈R⟺∃n∈Z, y=Tnx(x,y∈/N).

Milestones

  • §1 (p. 434): the type I criterion; hyperfinite relations are those generated by one automorphism (Dye, external); subrelations of hyperfinite relations are hyperfinite.
  • §§2–3: Lemma 2 (disintegration over a finite subrelation), Feldman and Moore's Theorem 1 (external, as the proof of Lemma 3 applies it), Lemma 3 (bounded sets), Lemma 4 (local triviality).
  • §§5–6: Lemma 8 (the Følner condition), Lemma 9 (approximation by finite subrelations), Theorem 10 (hyperfinite if and only if amenable).
  • §7: Corollary 12, Corollary 13 (Vershik), and Corollary 14 with the amenability of the action it rests on (Zimmer, external).

Significance

The result. Theorem 10 turns amenability, which is usually easy to check, into hyperfiniteness, which is the structure one wants: for instance, the action of SL2(Z)\mathrm{SL}_2(\mathbb Z)SL2​(Z) on the projective line, or of any discrete group on G/PG/PG/P with PPP amenable, is generated by a single transformation. On this platform it closes the open direction, LodhaMoore.isMuAmenable_of_isAmenableRel, and with it Lodha and Moore's Theorem 2.1.

Formalizing it. No machine-checked proof of the theorem exists, in Mathlib or elsewhere as far as a search finds; Mathlib has no theory of countable Borel equivalence relations. A complete development builds that theory from the descriptive set theory Mathlib has.

Difficulty

The theorem is about relations without a group. The obvious route, through a countable group generating RRR and an amenability of that group, is unavailable: the orbit relation of a nonamenable group, such as SL2(Z)\mathrm{SL}_2(\mathbb Z)SL2​(Z) acting on the projective line, can be amenable, and there is no group whose Følner sets one could use. The Følner sets of Lemma 8 have to be produced from the invariant mean on the relation itself, which needs duality between L1L^1L1 and L∞L^\inftyL∞ and convexity arguments. Underneath, even the basic facts used in §§1–3 (that RRR is a countable union of graphs of Borel automorphisms, that mmm is a measure, that saturations of Borel sets are Borel) rest on the Lusin–Novikov uniformization theorem, which is not in Mathlib. It is published here as standalone theorems: a Borel set with countable sections is a countable union of Borel graphs, and a countable-to-one Borel map is injective on countably many Borel pieces covering its domain.

Formalization scope

All statements carry the hypotheses of §1: XXX standard Borel (StandardBorelSpace), μ\muμ σ\sigmaσ-finite, RRR a Borel equivalence relation with countable classes and μ\muμ quasi-invariant. Lemmas 8 and 9 take μ\muμ a probability measure, as the paper's proof of Lemma 9 does. “Up to a null set” is read as “off a μ\muμ-null Borel set of points”, which by quasi-invariance agrees with the paper's mmm-null sets. Amenability is the published Monod definition, an invariant mean on bounded measurable functions modulo null sets; it is not trivial (the relation of PSL2(A)\mathrm{PSL}_2(A)PSL2​(A) for a countable dense subring AAA of R\mathbb RR is not amenable, Monod.not_isAmenableRel_mob).

The definitions are in the definition bundle ConnesFeldmanWeiss. Reusable beyond this mission: the Feldman–Moore theorem and the basic theory of countable Borel equivalence relations, both welcome as standalone theorems.

What is left out. Proposition 7 and Corollary 11 need the von Neumann algebra of a relation and its Cartan subalgebras, which Mathlib does not have. The final part of the paper (Lemma 15 to Corollary 21) treats relations with uncountable classes through transverse functions, including foliations; it is a different setting with its own definitions.

Selected references

  • A. Connes, J. Feldman, B. Weiss, An amenable equivalence relation is generated by a single transformation, Ergodic Theory Dynam. Systems 1 (1981) 431–450. doi:10.1017/S014338570000136X
  • H. A. Dye, On groups of measure preserving transformations. I, Amer. J. Math. 81 (1959) 119–159. doi:10.2307/2372852
  • J. Feldman, C. C. Moore, Ergodic equivalence relations, cohomology, and von Neumann algebras. I, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 234 (1977) 289–324. doi:10.1090/S0002-9947-1977-0578656-4
  • R. J. Zimmer, Amenable ergodic group actions and an application to Poisson boundaries of random walks, J. Funct. Anal. 27 (1978) 350–372. doi:10.1016/0022-1236(78)90013-7
  • D. Ornstein, B. Weiss, Ergodic theory of amenable group actions. I: The Rohlin lemma, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 2 (1980) 161–164. doi:10.1090/S0273-0979-1980-14702-3
  • A. S. Kechris, B. D. Miller, Topics in orbit equivalence, Lecture Notes in Math. 1852, Springer, 2004. doi:10.1007/b99421
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Dynamical SystemsPartial Differential Equations·Captain: shivm

Catalytic Reaction–Diffusion: Global Attraction of the Positive Equilibrium (AIM 416)Open Problem

Motivation

Nguyen and Tang study the irreversible catalytic network A+B→B+C\mathcal A+\mathcal B\to\mathcal B+\mathcal CA+B→B+C, B+C→A+B\mathcal B+\mathcal C\to\mathcal A+\mathcal BB+C→A+B, a simple reaction–diffusion system with both a positive and a boundary equilibrium (catalyst used up). They settle every mass regime but one and leave it as a conjecture (AIM problem 416).

Timeline. 2021: Fellner–Morgan–Tang give global classical solutions with uniform bounds. 2026: Nguyen–Tang prove convergence for M1<M2M_1<M_2M1​<M2​ and M1≥2M2M_1\ge2M_2M1​≥2M2​ and local results in between, conjecturing global attraction there.

Setting

On a bounded connected smooth domain Ω⊂Rn\Omega\subset\mathbb R^nΩ⊂Rn with ∣Ω∣=1|\Omega|=1∣Ω∣=1 and d1,d2,d3>0d_1,d_2,d_3>0d1​,d2​,d3​>0:

at−d1Δa=b(c−a),bt−d2Δb=b(c−a),ct−d3Δc=−b(c−a),a_t-d_1\Delta a=b(c-a),\quad b_t-d_2\Delta b=b(c-a),\quad c_t-d_3\Delta c=-b(c-a),at​−d1​Δa=b(c−a),bt​−d2​Δb=b(c−a),ct​−d3​Δc=−b(c−a),

with homogeneous Neumann conditions and strictly positive C2C^2C2 compatible initial data. The masses M1=∫Ω(a0+c0)M_1=\int_\Omega(a_0+c_0)M1​=∫Ω​(a0​+c0​), M2=∫Ω(b0+c0)M_2=\int_\Omega(b_0+c_0)M2​=∫Ω​(b0​+c0​) are conserved. The equilibria are the positive one (M12, M2−M12, M12)(\frac{M_1}2,\,M_2-\frac{M_1}2,\,\frac{M_1}2)(2M1​​,M2​−2M1​​,2M1​​) and the boundary one (M1−M2, 0, M2)(M_1-M_2,\,0,\,M_2)(M1​−M2​,0,M2​).

Formalization target

If M2≤M1<2M2M_2\le M_1<2M_2M2​≤M1​<2M2​, every classical solution converges uniformly on Ω\OmegaΩ to the positive equilibrium (no rate required).

Significance

This is the last open regime of Nguyen–Tang's stability analysis. Strict positivity is essential: with b0≡0b_0\equiv0b0​≡0 the solution stays away from the positive equilibrium.

Difficulty

For M1≥M2M_1\ge M_2M1​≥M2​ there is no positive lower bound on ∫Ωb\int_\Omega b∫Ω​b, so entropy dissipation can degenerate near the boundary equilibrium (b=0b=0b=0), and the local results do not exclude trajectories approaching it.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and Δ\DeltaΔ is Mathlib's Laplacian. The domain is Ω={φ<0}\Omega=\{\varphi<0\}Ω={φ<0} for a C∞C^\inftyC∞ function φ\varphiφ with ∇φ≠0\nabla\varphi\ne0∇φ=0 on {φ=0}\{\varphi=0\}{φ=0}; the Neumann condition is the derivative within Ω‾\overline\OmegaΩ in the direction ∇φ\nabla\varphi∇φ. Solutions are continuous on [0,∞)×Ω‾[0,\infty)\times\overline\Omega[0,∞)×Ω and C1,2C^{1,2}C1,2 for t>0t>0t>0, and L∞L^\inftyL∞ convergence is TendstoUniformlyOn. The goal quantifies over classical solutions; their existence is proved in the literature (Fellner–Morgan–Tang; Nguyen–Tang, Theorem 2.1) but is not part of this statement.

Selected references

  • T. L. Nguyen, B. Q. Tang, Stability analysis of irreversible chemical reaction-diffusion systems with boundary equilibria, Z. Angew. Math. Phys. 77, 2026, 199. DOI
  • K. Fellner, J. Morgan, B. Q. Tang, Uniform-in-time bounds for quadratic reaction-diffusion systems with mass dissipation in higher dimensions, DCDS-S 14, 2021, 635–651. DOI
  • AIM open problems list, problem 416. github.com/MColbrook/AIM
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Calculus of VariationsMathematical PhysicsPartial Differential Equations·Captain: shivm

Uniqueness of the Hemispheric Saddle Profile on a Magnetic Sphere (AIM 241)Open Problem

Motivation

Gustafson, Meinert and Melcher construct axisymmetric saddle points of the micromagnetic energy of a spherical shell in two ways (a heat flow, and continuation from an explicit solution at κ=4\kappa=4κ=4). Their Remark 3.18 conjectures that a single uniqueness statement identifies the two; it is problem 241 of the AIM open problem list.

Timeline. 2016: Kravchuk et al. propose the model. 2025: Gustafson–Meinert–Melcher construct the saddle points and state the conjecture.

Setting

For anisotropy κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 the energy of m:S2→S2m:S^2\to S^2m:S2→S2 is Eκ(m)=12∫S2∣∇m∣2+κ (1−(m⋅x)2)\mathcal E_\kappa(m)=\frac12\int_{S^2}|\nabla m|^2+\kappa\,(1-(m\cdot x)^2)Eκ​(m)=21​∫S2​∣∇m∣2+κ(1−(m⋅x)2). An axisymmetric field m=(sin⁡hcos⁡φ, sin⁡hsin⁡φ, cos⁡h)m=(\sin h\cos\varphi,\ \sin h\sin\varphi,\ \cos h)m=(sinhcosφ, sinhsinφ, cosh) with profile h(θ)h(\theta)h(θ) is critical exactly when

h′′+cot⁡θ h′−sin⁡2h2sin⁡2θ−κ2sin⁡(2h−2θ)=0(0<θ<π).(2.6)h''+\cot\theta\,h'-\frac{\sin 2h}{2\sin^2\theta}-\frac{\kappa}{2}\sin(2h-2\theta)=0\qquad(0<\theta<\pi).\tag{2.6}h′′+cotθh′−2sin2θsin2h​−2κ​sin(2h−2θ)=0(0<θ<π).(2.6)

The hemispheric class H0,2H_{0,2}H0,2​ adds h(0)=0h(0)=0h(0)=0, h(π)=2πh(\pi)=2\pih(π)=2π, h(π−θ)=2π−h(θ)h(\pi-\theta)=2\pi-h(\theta)h(π−θ)=2π−h(θ).

Formalization target

For every κ≥4\kappa\ge4κ≥4 there is exactly one smooth profile in H0,2H_{0,2}H0,2​ that solves (2.6) and induces a smooth map S2→S2S^2\to S^2S2→S2. The statement may be proved or disproved.

Significance

Uniqueness would identify the two constructions as one saddle branch; a counterexample would give further degree-zero critical points of Eκ\mathcal E_\kappaEκ​.

Difficulty

(2.6) is singular at both poles and H0,2H_{0,2}H0,2​ is a two-point boundary condition, so standard ODE uniqueness does not apply, and the paper's comparison arguments only control solutions in the wedge θ≤h≤2θ\theta\le h\le 2\thetaθ≤h≤2θ. Numerical evidence (shooting) finds at κ=4\kappa=4κ=4, besides h=2θh=2\thetah=2θ, a second solution in the class with h′(0)≈3.899h'(0)\approx3.899h′(0)≈3.899 (similarly at κ=5,8\kappa=5,8κ=5,8), which leaves the wedge.

Formalization scope

Profiles are functions h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R; all conditions, and the uniqueness, are imposed on [0,π][0,\pi][0,π] only (values outside are unconstrained, so uniqueness on R\mathbb RR would be trivially false). Smoothness is ContDiffOn ℝ ∞ on [0,π][0,\pi][0,π]. "Induces a smooth map" means the field extended to R3∖{0}\mathbb R^3\setminus\{0\}R3∖{0} as a function of x/∣x∣x/|x|x/∣x∣ is C∞C^\inftyC∞ there; this excludes profiles with a cone singularity at a pole. The paper's H0,2H_{0,2}H0,2​ uses piecewise C1C^1C1 profiles; by its Corollary 2.7 it has the same solutions.

Selected references

  • S. Gustafson, D. Meinert, C. Melcher, Saddle Point Configurations for Spherical Ferromagnets, preprint, 2025. arXiv:2509.05159
  • V. P. Kravchuk et al., Topologically stable magnetization states on a spherical shell: Curvature-stabilized skyrmions, Phys. Rev. B 94, 144402, 2016. DOI
  • AIM open problems list, problem 241. github.com/MColbrook/AIM
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CombinatoricsInformation Theory·Captain: shivm

Periodic Multidimensional Costas Arrays (Rubio–Torres Conjecture 1)Open Problem

Motivation

A Costas array is a permutation matrix in which the difference vectors between distinct dots are pairwise distinct; such arrays are frequency-hopping patterns for sonar and radar (Costas, 1984). Rubio and Torres ask whether their mmm-dimensional version can stay Costas in every window of its periodic extension, and conjecture that this happens only in the smallest order.

Timeline. 1984: Taylor proves that 2D periodic Costas arrays have order ≤2\le 2≤2. 2023: Rubio–Torres prove the odd-order and 3D cases, give 2×2×42\times2\times42×2×4 examples, and state Conjecture 1.

Setting

Let [n]={1,…,n}[n]=\{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n}, X=[a1]×⋯×[ak]X=[a_1]\times\cdots\times[a_k]X=[a1​]×⋯×[ak​], Y=[b1]×⋯×[bl]Y=[b_1]\times\cdots\times[b_l]Y=[b1​]×⋯×[bl​] with all sides ≥2\ge2≥2, and φ:X→Y\varphi:X\to Yφ:X→Y a bijection; the dots are (x,φ(x))∈Zk+l(x,\varphi(x))\in\mathbb Z^{k+l}(x,φ(x))∈Zk+l. The array is Costas if the difference vectors between distinct dots are distinct, and periodic Costas if moreover, after repeating the dots periodically over Zk+l\mathbb Z^{k+l}Zk+l, the dots inside every translate t+X×Yt+X\times Yt+X×Y have distinct difference vectors.

Formalization target

Conjecture 1: if k≥l≥1k\ge l\ge1k≥l≥1 and φ\varphiφ defines a periodic Costas array, then

∏i=1kai=2k,\prod_{i=1}^k a_i=2^k,i=1∏k​ai​=2k,

equivalently every ai=2a_i=2ai​=2. The condition k≥lk\ge lk≥l is a normalization (φ−1\varphi^{-1}φ−1 swaps the boxes).

Significance

A proof would give the multidimensional analogue of Taylor's theorem; a counterexample would give periodic distinct-difference patterns of non-power-of-two order.

Difficulty

The Rubio–Torres counting argument needs a bound that is available only when YYY is one-dimensional, which is why it stops at m=3m=3m=3. Computational evidence: an exhaustive window check reports that the 2×3×2×32\times3\times2\times32×3×2×3 array with dots (1,1,1,1),(1,2,1,2),(1,3,2,1),(2,1,1,3),(2,2,2,3),(2,3,2,2)(1,1,1,1),(1,2,1,2),(1,3,2,1),(2,1,1,3),(2,2,2,3),(2,3,2,2)(1,1,1,1),(1,2,1,2),(1,3,2,1),(2,1,1,3),(2,2,2,3),(2,3,2,2) is periodic Costas, which would disprove the conjecture.

Formalization scope

A point of Zk+l\mathbb Z^{k+l}Zk+l is a pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y); boxes are 1-based; φ\varphiφ is a total function Zk→Zl\mathbb Z^k\to\mathbb Z^lZk→Zl whose values off XXX are unused. Differences are plain integer vectors (not reduced modulo the sides), windows range over all t∈Zk+lt\in\mathbb Z^{k+l}t∈Zk+l, and k,l≥1k,l\ge1k,l≥1 and sides ≥2\ge2≥2 are part of the definition, so no degenerate case holds vacuously.

Selected references

  • I. Rubio, J. Torres, Multidimensional Costas Arrays and Their Periodicity, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 69(8), 2023, 5032–5040. arXiv:2208.02378, DOI
  • J. P. Costas, A study of a class of detection waveforms having nearly ideal range-Doppler ambiguity properties, Proc. IEEE 72(8), 1984, 996–1009.
  • S. W. Golomb, H. Taylor, Constructions and properties of Costas arrays, Proc. IEEE 72(9), 1984, 1143–1163.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Asymptotic Behavior of Statistical Estimators and of Optimal Solutions of Stochastic Optimization Problems: Optimal Solutions Under Estimated Distributions Are Strongly ConsistentResearch Paper

Motivation

Many estimation procedures in statistics, and most stochastic optimization models in operations research, have the same shape: a decision or parameter x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn is chosen to minimize an expected loss Ef(x)=∫f(x,ξ) P(dξ)Ef(x)=\int f(x,\xi)\,P(d\xi)Ef(x)=∫f(x,ξ)P(dξ) under a distribution PPP that is not known. In practice PPP is replaced by an estimate PνP^\nuPν built from the information available at stage ν\nuν (an empirical measure, a smoothed or parametric fit, a Bayesian posterior), and the minimizer of the estimated problem is used in place of the true one. The basic question is whether this is justified: do the estimated solutions converge to a true solution, and the estimated optimal values to the true optimal value, as information accumulates?

For maximum likelihood this is Wald's consistency theorem (Wald 1949); Huber extended it to M-estimators under non-standard conditions (Huber 1967). Both settings are unconstrained, or constrained to an open set, and assume finite-valued criteria. Constrained least squares, L1L^1L1 and Huber regression with inequality constraints, variance-component models with Heywood cases, and two-stage stochastic programs with recourse all lead instead to criteria that take the value +∞+\infty+∞ off a closed feasible set and are only lower semicontinuous in xxx.

J. Dupačová and R. Wets (IIASA WP-86-41, 1986; journal version Ann. Statist. 16 (1988)) proved consistency in this generality by combining epi-convergence of functions with the theory of measurable multifunctions and normal integrands. This mission formalizes their §3.

Setting

Ξ\XiΞ is a Polish space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-field and PPP is a probability measure on it. The integrand is f:Rn×Ξ→(−∞,∞]f:\mathbb R^n\times\Xi\to(-\infty,\infty]f:Rn×Ξ→(−∞,∞], and the true problem is to minimize

Ef(x)=∫Ξf(x,ξ) P(dξ),Ef(x)=\int_\Xi f(x,\xi)\,P(d\xi),Ef(x)=∫Ξ​f(x,ξ)P(dξ),

with the convention that Ef(x)=+∞Ef(x)=+\inftyEf(x)=+∞ whenever ξ↦f(x,ξ)\xi\mapsto f(x,\xi)ξ↦f(x,ξ) is not bounded above by a summable function. The effective domain of a function h:Rn→[−∞,∞]h:\mathbb R^n\to[-\infty,\infty]h:Rn→[−∞,∞] is dom⁡h={x:h(x)<∞}\operatorname{dom}h=\{x: h(x)<\infty\}domh={x:h(x)<∞}, and argmin⁡h={x:h(x)=inf⁡h}\operatorname{argmin}h=\{x: h(x)=\inf h\}argminh={x:h(x)=infh}.

Information arrives on a probability space (Z,F,μ)(Z,\mathcal F,\mu)(Z,F,μ) with an increasing sequence of σ\sigmaσ-fields F1⊆F2⊆⋯⊆F\mathcal F^1\subseteq\mathcal F^2\subseteq\dots\subseteq\mathcal FF1⊆F2⊆⋯⊆F. Each sample ζ∈Z\zeta\in Zζ∈Z yields probability measures Pν(⋅,ζ)P^\nu(\cdot,\zeta)Pν(⋅,ζ) on Ξ\XiΞ, and ζ↦Pν(A,ζ)\zeta\mapsto P^\nu(A,\zeta)ζ↦Pν(A,ζ) is Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurable for every Borel AAA: the estimate at stage ν\nuν uses only stage-ν\nuν information. The estimated problem minimizes

Eνf(x,ζ)=∫Ξf(x,ξ) Pν(dξ,ζ).E^\nu f(x,\zeta)=\int_\Xi f(x,\xi)\,P^\nu(d\xi,\zeta).Eνf(x,ζ)=∫Ξ​f(x,ξ)Pν(dξ,ζ).

A sequence gνg^\nugν epi-converges to ggg if, at every xxx, lim inf⁡gν(xν)≥g(x)\liminf g^\nu(x^\nu)\ge g(x)liminfgν(xν)≥g(x) along every sequence xν→xx^\nu\to xxν→x, and lim sup⁡gν(xν)≤g(x)\limsup g^\nu(x^\nu)\le g(x)limsupgν(xν)≤g(x) along some sequence xν→xx^\nu\to xxν→x.

The standing hypotheses are Assumption 3.4: dom⁡f=S×Ξ\operatorname{dom}f=S\times\Xidomf=S×Ξ with SSS closed and nonempty; f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅) is continuous for x∈Sx\in Sx∈S; f(⋅,ξ)f(\cdot,\xi)f(⋅,ξ) is lower semicontinuous; and fff is locally lower Lipschitz on SSS with a bounded continuous modulus β(ξ)\beta(\xi)β(ξ). Assumption 3.5 asks that, for μ\muμ-almost every ζ\zetaζ, Pν(⋅,ζ)P^\nu(\cdot,\zeta)Pν(⋅,ζ) converge in distribution to PPP, that ∣f(x,⋅)∣|f(x,\cdot)|∣f(x,⋅)∣ be uniformly tight along P=P0,P1,…P=P^0,P^1,\dotsP=P0,P1,… for each x∈Sx\in Sx∈S, and that ∫inf⁡xf(x,ξ) Pν(dξ,ζ)>−∞\int\inf_x f(x,\xi)\,P^\nu(d\xi,\zeta)>-\infty∫infx​f(x,ξ)Pν(dξ,ζ)>−∞ for all ν\nuν.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.9, "In particular" (pp. 21–22)

Let D⊆RnD\subseteq\mathbb R^nD⊆Rn be compact, suppose (argmin⁡Eνf)∩D≠∅(\operatorname{argmin}E^\nu f)\cap D\neq\emptyset(argminEνf)∩D=∅ μ\muμ-a.s. for every ν\nuν, and suppose {x∗}=argmin⁡Ef∩D\{x^*\}=\operatorname{argmin}Ef\cap D{x∗}=argminEf∩D. Then there are Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurable selections xνx^\nuxν of argmin⁡Eνf\operatorname{argmin}E^\nu fargminEνf with

xν(ζ)→x∗andinf⁡Eνf(⋅,ζ)→inf⁡Effor μ-almost every ζ.x^\nu(\zeta)\to x^*\quad\text{and}\quad \inf E^\nu f(\cdot,\zeta)\to\inf Ef\qquad\text{for }\mu\text{-almost every }\zeta .xν(ζ)→x∗andinfEνf(⋅,ζ)→infEffor μ-almost every ζ.

The goal does not assume that EfEfEf has a unique global minimizer, and it does not assume convexity.

Milestones

In attack order:

  • Proposition 3.3: epi-convergence gives lim sup⁡(inf⁡gν)≤inf⁡g\limsup(\inf g^\nu)\le\inf glimsup(infgν)≤infg, limits of minimizers are minimizers, and the minimum is attained in the closure of a bounded DDD.
  • Lemma 3.6: almost surely, EfEfEf and every EνfE^\nu fEνf are proper and l.s.c., with domain SSS.
  • Theorem 3.7: almost surely, EνfE^\nu fEνf epi-converges and converges pointwise to EfEfEf.
  • Theorem 3.8: almost surely, the epigraphs of EνfE^\nu fEνf are closed, and they depend Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurably on ζ\zetaζ.
  • Theorem 3.9:
    • (3.14) lim sup⁡(inf⁡Eνf)≤inf⁡Ef\limsup(\inf E^\nu f)\le\inf Eflimsup(infEνf)≤infEf a.s.;
    • (i) cluster points of estimated minimizers minimize EfEfEf;
    • (ii) ζ↦argmin⁡Eνf(⋅,ζ)\zeta\mapsto\operatorname{argmin}E^\nu f(\cdot,\zeta)ζ↦argminEνf(⋅,ζ) is closed-valued and Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurable.
  • Proposition 3.1: the measurable selection theorem.

Significance

The result separates two things: the statistical input, which is only convergence in distribution of PνP^\nuPν plus a tightness condition, and the variational output, which is convergence of optimal values and solutions. It therefore applies to any estimator PνP^\nuPν that converges weakly almost surely: empirical measures, kernel estimates, parametric fits. It also covers constrained and nonsmooth problems: the feasible set enters through f=+∞f=+\inftyf=+∞ off SSS, and only lower semicontinuity in xxx is required. Asymptotic distribution results for constrained estimators, such as the second part of the same paper and the subsequent literature on sample average approximation, start from this consistency.

The theorem is proved on paper. To the best of current knowledge none of it is machine-checked. Mathlib has weak convergence of probability measures, lower semicontinuity and extended-real integrals. It does not have epi-convergence, Effros-measurable multifunctions, normal integrands or the Kuratowski–Ryll-Nardzewski selection theorem. A formal proof produces these as reusable components. It also has to supply the details that the paper's proof of Theorem 3.8 leaves as a sketch.

Difficulty

Pointwise convergence Eνf(x)→Ef(x)E^\nu f(x)\to Ef(x)Eνf(x)→Ef(x) is not enough to move minimizers to the limit, and uniform convergence fails because fff is +∞+\infty+∞ off SSS and need not be bounded. Epi-convergence is the right notion. Proving it needs a liminf inequality along moving points xν→xx^\nu\to xxν→x under moving measures PνP^\nuPν. That combines Fatou's lemma, the lower Lipschitz bound and the tightness condition, and the integrands are extended-real-valued, so care is needed.

The second difficulty is measurability. The exceptional null set lies in F\mathcal FF but not in Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν, so "Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurable" has to be understood on a full-measure set in the trace σ\sigmaσ-field. The paper's argument for Theorem 3.8 appeals to continuity of P↦epi⁡EPfP\mapsto\operatorname{epi}E_PfP↦epiEP​f in the epi-topology, and it remarks itself that Theorem 3.7 gives this only along sequences satisfying Assumption 3.5. A solver will have to rebuild this step, for example through the normal-integrand structure of EνfE^\nu fEνf.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with its Euclidean norm.
  • Ξ\XiΞ is a Polish space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra. This is exactly a closed subset of a Polish space with the relative Borel field.
  • fff is EReal-valued. Every expectation is the mission's expect: +∞+\infty+∞ when ∫f+=∞\int f^+=\infty∫f+=∞, and ∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f− otherwise, both computed as Lebesgue integrals of [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued functions. A Bochner integral, which would assign 000 to non-integrable functions, is never used for EfEfEf or EνfE^\nu fEνf.
  • The sample index is shifted: Lean's Pν k and 𝔽 k are the paper's Pk+1P^{k+1}Pk+1 and Fk+1\mathcal F^{k+1}Fk+1, and P=P0P=P^0P=P0 is a separate argument.
  • Infima, lim inf⁡\liminfliminf and lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup are taken in [−∞,∞][-\infty,\infty][−∞,∞].
  • Measurability on the full-measure set Z0Z_0Z0​ uses the trace σ\sigmaσ-field.
  • The selections in the goal are total, Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν-measurable maps Z→RnZ\to\mathbb R^nZ→Rn that select almost surely. This is equivalent to the paper's maps Z0→RnZ_0\to\mathbb R^nZ0​→Rn.
  • "Random l.s.c. function" in Theorem 3.8 is encoded by the equivalent conditions (3.4i)–(3.4ii): nonempty, closed and measurable epigraphs.
  • Lower Lipschitz (3.10) is written additively.
  • The hypothesis that Ξ\XiΞ is the support of PPP is omitted. It is unused in §3, and omitting it strengthens every statement.
  • Nothing beyond the page is assumed: no convexity, no compact SSS, no bounded fff, no unique minimizer, no i.i.d. sampling, no empirical PνP^\nuPν, no completeness of μ\muμ or Fν\mathcal F^\nuFν.

The hypotheses are not vacuous. A sorry-free check verifies all of them, including those of the goal, for f(x,ξ)=∥x∥2f(x,\xi)=\|x\|^2f(x,ξ)=∥x∥2 with Dirac measures. Defining the expectation through a Bochner integral, or dropping S≠∅S\neq\emptysetS=∅ (which makes every argmin⁡\operatorname{argmin}argmin all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn), would trivialize or change the statements; the definitions above rule both out.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. Proposition 3.1 (Kuratowski–Ryll-Nardzewski for Rm\mathbb R^mRm-valued multifunctions) and Proposition 3.3 (deterministic epi-convergence facts) are independent of the probabilistic setting and reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. Dupačová, R. Wets, Asymptotic Behavior of Statistical Estimators and Optimal Solutions for Stochastic Optimization Problems, IIASA Working Paper WP-86-41, 1986. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2818/ — journal version: Ann. Statist. 16(4), 1517–1549, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176351052
  • A. Wald, Note on the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimate, Ann. Math. Statist. 20, 595–601, 1949. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729938
  • P. J. Huber, The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions, Proc. Fifth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 1, 221–233, 1967. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200512988
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998 (Ch. 7 epi-convergence; Ch. 14 measurable multifunctions and normal integrands). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Bandit AlgorithmsConvex OptimizationMachine Learning+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems IV: Online Stochastic Mirror Descent for Combinatorial Semi-BanditsTextbook

Motivation

Many sequential decision problems ask a learner to choose, round after round, a combination of items: a set of mmm ads out of ddd, a path in a network, a matching. After each choice the learner sees the loss of the items it used, not of those it did not. This is online combinatorial optimization with semi-bandit feedback. It contains the classical adversarial multi-armed bandit (choose one of ddd arms) and is a standard model in online advertising, routing and ranking.

Chapter 5 of Bubeck and Cesa-Bianchi's monograph arXiv:1204.5721v2 treats this problem with one algorithm, Online Stochastic Mirror Descent (OSMD). Every regret bound in the chapter comes from a single mirror-descent inequality, specialized through the choice of a convex "regularizer". The chapter's capstone, Theorem 5.7, shows that a polynomial regularizer gives pseudo-regret O(mdn)O(\sqrt{mdn})O(mdn​) with no logarithmic factor. For m=1m=1m=1 this is the minimax-optimal rate of the adversarial bandit, first attained by the INF strategy of Audibert and Bubeck (2009). The semi-bandit version is due to Audibert, Bubeck and Lugosi (2014).

Setting

Vectors live in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. The arm set is a nonempty C⊆{0,1}d\mathcal C\subseteq\{0,1\}^dC⊆{0,1}d with ∥v∥1=m\|v\|_1=m∥v∥1​=m for every v∈Cv\in\mathcal Cv∈C, and K=Conv(C)\mathcal K=\mathrm{Conv}(\mathcal C)K=Conv(C). An oblivious adversary fixes loss vectors ℓ1,…,ℓn∈[0,1]d\ell_1,\dots,\ell_n\in[0,1]^dℓ1​,…,ℓn​∈[0,1]d. In round ttt the learner plays a random arm vt∈Cv_t\in\mathcal Cvt​∈C, pays ℓt⊤vt\ell_t^\top v_tℓt⊤​vt​, and observes (ℓt(1)vt(1),…,ℓt(d)vt(d))(\ell_t(1)v_t(1),\dots,\ell_t(d)v_t(d))(ℓt​(1)vt​(1),…,ℓt​(d)vt​(d)). The pseudo-regret is

Rˉn=E∑t=1nℓt⊤vt−min⁡x∈K∑t=1nℓt⊤x.\bar R_n=\mathbb E\sum_{t=1}^n\ell_t^\top v_t-\min_{x\in\mathcal K}\sum_{t=1}^n\ell_t^\top x .Rˉn​=Et=1∑n​ℓt⊤​vt​−x∈Kmin​t=1∑n​ℓt⊤​x.

A Legendre function on Dˉ\bar DDˉ, for a nonempty open convex DDD, is a continuous F:Dˉ→RF:\bar D\to\mathbb RF:Dˉ→R that is strictly convex and C1C^1C1 on DDD and whose gradient norm tends to +∞+\infty+∞ at Dˉ∖D\bar D\setminus DDˉ∖D. Its Bregman divergence is DF(x,y)=F(x)−F(y)−(x−y)⊤∇F(y)D_F(x,y)=F(x)-F(y)-(x-y)^\top\nabla F(y)DF​(x,y)=F(x)−F(y)−(x−y)⊤∇F(y), and its Legendre–Fenchel transform is F∗(u)=sup⁡x∈Dˉ(x⊤u−F(x))F^*(u)=\sup_{x\in\bar D}(x^\top u-F(x))F∗(u)=supx∈Dˉ​(x⊤u−F(x)).

Online Mirror Descent with learning rate η>0\eta>0η>0 and vectors gtg_tgt​ starts at x1∈arg⁡min⁡KFx_1\in\arg\min_{\mathcal K}Fx1​∈argminK​F. It then sets ∇F(wt+1)=∇F(xt)−ηgt\nabla F(w_{t+1})=\nabla F(x_t)-\eta g_t∇F(wt+1​)=∇F(xt​)−ηgt​ and xt+1=arg⁡min⁡y∈KDF(y,wt+1)x_{t+1}=\arg\min_{y\in\mathcal K}D_F(y,w_{t+1})xt+1​=argminy∈K​DF​(y,wt+1​). OSMD uses a random estimate gt=ℓ~tg_t=\tilde\ell_tgt​=ℓ~t​ of the loss. In the semi-bandit case it plays vtv_tvt​ with E[vt∣xt]=xt\mathbb E[v_t\mid x_t]=x_tE[vt​∣xt​]=xt​ and uses

ℓ~t(i)=ℓt(i) vt(i)xt(i).(5.5)\tilde\ell_t(i)=\frac{\ell_t(i)\,v_t(i)}{x_t(i)}. \tag{5.5}ℓ~t​(i)=xt​(i)ℓt​(i)vt​(i)​.(5.5)

A 000-potential is a convex, C1C^1C1, increasing ψ:(−∞,a)→(0,∞)\psi:(-\infty,a)\to(0,\infty)ψ:(−∞,a)→(0,∞) with ψ(−∞)=0\psi(-\infty)=0ψ(−∞)=0, ψ(a−)=+∞\psi(a^-)=+\inftyψ(a−)=+∞ and ∫01∣ψ−1∣<∞\int_0^1|\psi^{-1}|<\infty∫01​∣ψ−1∣<∞. It defines the Legendre function Fψ(x)=∑i∫0xiψ−1(s) dsF_\psi(x)=\sum_i\int_0^{x_i}\psi^{-1}(s)\,dsFψ​(x)=∑i​∫0xi​​ψ−1(s)ds on [0,∞)d[0,\infty)^d[0,∞)d. With ψ=exp⁡\psi=\expψ=exp this is the negative entropy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.7 (p. 80)

For every 000-potential ψ\psiψ and non-negative unbiased estimates,

Rˉn≤sup⁡KFψ−Fψ(x1)η+η2∑t=1n∑i=1dE[ℓ~t(i)2(ψ−1)′(xt(i))].\bar R_n\le\frac{\sup_{\mathcal K}F_\psi-F_\psi(x_1)}{\eta}+\frac\eta2\sum_{t=1}^n\sum_{i=1}^d\mathbb E\left[\frac{\tilde\ell_t(i)^2}{(\psi^{-1})'(x_t(i))}\right].Rˉn​≤ηsupK​Fψ​−Fψ​(x1​)​+2η​t=1∑n​i=1∑d​E[(ψ−1)′(xt​(i))ℓ~t​(i)2​].

For ψ(x)=(−x)−q\psi(x)=(-x)^{-q}ψ(x)=(−x)−q with q>1q>1q>1, the estimate (5.5) and η=2q−1 m1−2/q/(n d1−2/q)\eta=\sqrt{\tfrac{2}{q-1}\,m^{1-2/q}/(n\,d^{1-2/q})}η=q−12​m1−2/q/(nd1−2/q)​,

Rˉn≤q2q−1 mdn,and  Rˉn≤22mdn  at q=2.\bar R_n\le q\sqrt{\tfrac{2}{q-1}\,mdn},\qquad\text{and }\ \bar R_n\le2\sqrt{2mdn}\ \text{ at }q=2.Rˉn​≤qq−12​mdn​,and  Rˉn​≤22mdn​  at q=2.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5.1: F∗∗=FF^{**}=FF∗∗=F, ∇F∗=(∇F)−1\nabla F^*=(\nabla F)^{-1}∇F∗=(∇F)−1 on D∗D^*D∗, and DF(x,y)=DF∗(∇F(y),∇F(x))D_F(x,y)=D_{F^*}(\nabla F(y),\nabla F(x))DF​(x,y)=DF∗​(∇F(y),∇F(x)).
  2. Lemma 5.2: existence, uniqueness and the Pythagorean inequality of Bregman projections.
  3. Theorem 5.3: ∑tℓt(xt)−∑tℓt(x)≤F(x)−F(x1)η+1η∑tDF∗(∇F(xt)−η∇ℓt(xt),∇F(xt))\sum_t\ell_t(x_t)-\sum_t\ell_t(x)\le\frac{F(x)-F(x_1)}\eta+\frac1\eta\sum_tD_{F^*}(\nabla F(x_t)-\eta\nabla\ell_t(x_t),\nabla F(x_t))∑t​ℓt​(xt​)−∑t​ℓt​(x)≤ηF(x)−F(x1​)​+η1​∑t​DF∗​(∇F(xt​)−η∇ℓt​(xt​),∇F(xt​)).
  4. Theorem 5.5, linear losses, and its corrected general form.
  5. Lemma 5.3: FψF_\psiFψ​ is Legendre and DFψ∗(u,v)≤12∑iψ′(vi)(ui−vi)2D_{F_\psi^*}(u,v)\le\frac12\sum_i\psi'(v_i)(u_i-v_i)^2DFψ∗​​(u,v)≤21​∑i​ψ′(vi​)(ui​−vi​)2 for u≤vu\le vu≤v.
  6. Theorem 5.6: with the negative entropy, Rˉn≤2mdnln⁡(d/m)\bar R_n\le\sqrt{2mdn\ln(d/m)}Rˉn​≤2mdnln(d/m)​.

Significance

Theorem 5.7 is the sharpest semi-bandit bound in the monograph. It shows that removing the ln⁡(d/m)\sqrt{\ln(d/m)}ln(d/m)​ factor of the exponential-weights analysis (Theorem 5.6) is a matter of the regularizer, not of a new algorithm. The same OSMD template gives the Euclidean-ball bound of Theorem 5.8 and is reused for bandit convex optimization in Chapter 6. Lemma 5.1, Lemma 5.2 and Theorem 5.3 are the standard mirror-descent toolkit, used throughout online learning and optimization.

All results of the chapter are proved in the book. Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2 are cited from Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi (2006). None of them is formalized on Prove2Me. The published mirror-descent bound of Bandit Algorithms XII treats linear losses with a comparator inside DDD and Euclidean-space vectors; it is not Theorem 5.3. The mission adds a machine-checked version of the whole chain, from Legendre duality to the explicit constant q2mdn/(q−1)q\sqrt{2mdn/(q-1)}q2mdn/(q−1)​, with two of the printed statements corrected (below).

Difficulty

The pathwise mirror-descent inequality is a telescoping argument, but several of its steps rest on convex analysis that Mathlib does not package. One is the existence and interior location of Bregman projections onto a set that touches the boundary of DDD. Another is the differentiability of F∗F^*F∗ on the open dual space and the identity ∇F∗=(∇F)−1\nabla F^*=(\nabla F)^{-1}∇F∗=(∇F)−1. A third is the closed form of Fψ∗F_\psi^*Fψ∗​ for a potential defined through an improper integral of ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1.

The probabilistic step is not a martingale argument. Only conditioning on the current iterate xtx_txt​ is available. The estimate (5.5) divides by xt(i)x_t(i)xt​(i), so its integrability and unbiasedness have to be derived from the fact that the iterates stay in the open orthant. Finally, the explicit constant requires a Hölder step, ∑ix1(i)1−1/q≤m(q−1)/qd1/q\sum_ix_1(i)^{1-1/q}\le m^{(q-1)/q}d^{1/q}∑i​x1​(i)1−1/q≤m(q−1)/qd1/q, and the matching bound ∑ixt(i)1/q≤m1/qd1−1/q\sum_ix_t(i)^{1/q}\le m^{1/q}d^{1-1/q}∑i​xt​(i)1/q≤m1/qd1−1/q.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin d → ℝ. The arm set is a Set of 0/10/10/1 vectors with coordinate sum mmm, and K\mathcal KK is convexHull ℝ C. Rounds are t=1,…,nt=1,\dots,nt=1,…,n, sums run over Finset.Icc 1 n, and index 000 is unused. A randomized run is a family of measurable processes xt,vt,ℓ~t,wtx_t, v_t, \tilde\ell_t, w_txt​,vt​,ℓ~t​,wt​ on a probability space, with the deterministic OMD recursion holding on every sample path. E[⋅∣xt]\mathbb E[\cdot\mid x_t]E[⋅∣xt​] is the coordinatewise conditional expectation given σ(xt)\sigma(x_t)σ(xt​), which is exactly what the book's proofs use. Losses are oblivious, so Rˉn≤B\bar R_n\le BRˉn​≤B is stated as "for every x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K, E∑tℓt⊤vt−∑tℓt⊤x≤B\mathbb E\sum_t\ell_t^\top v_t-\sum_t\ell_t^\top x\le BE∑t​ℓt⊤​vt​−∑t​ℓt⊤​x≤B". F∗F^*F∗ is valued in EReal, and DF∗D_{F^*}DF∗​ is evaluated only on the open dual space, where F∗F^*F∗ is finite. Wherever an expectation of a possibly non-integrable quantity appears on a right-hand side, its integrability is assumed: the book's bound is then +∞+\infty+∞ and trivial, while Lean's integral would be 000.

Corrections and instantiations, each labelled in the item's Formalization Note:

  • Theorem 5.7, corrected misprint. The book prints η=2q−1m1−2/qd1−2/q\eta=\sqrt{\frac2{q-1}\frac{m^{1-2/q}}{d^{1-2/q}}}η=q−12​d1−2/qm1−2/q​​. The proof (p. 81) gives the stated bound only for η=2q−1m1−2/qn d1−2/q\eta=\sqrt{\frac2{q-1}\frac{m^{1-2/q}}{n\,d^{1-2/q}}}η=q−12​nd1−2/qm1−2/q​​, which is stated. At q=2q=2q=2 this is η=2/n\eta=\sqrt{2/n}η=2/n​.
  • Theorem 5.5, corrected misprint. In the first bound the book prints E[∥xt−x~t∥ ∥g~t∥∗]\mathbb E[\|x_t-\tilde x_t\|\,\|\tilde g_t\|_*]E[∥xt​−x~t​∥∥g~​t​∥∗​]. That statement fails for ℓt(x)=x2\ell_t(x)=x^2ℓt​(x)=x2 on [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1] with F=x2/2F=x^2/2F=x2/2 and x~t=±1\tilde x_t=\pm1x~t​=±1. The version stated uses ∥∇ℓt(x~t)∥∗\|\nabla\ell_t(\tilde x_t)\|_*∥∇ℓt​(x~t​)∥∗​, as the proof's first inequality does. The linear-loss bound is stated as printed.
  • Lemma 5.2. "For all z∈K∩Dz\in K\cap Dz∈K∩D" is read as "for the projection zzz", which lies in K∩DK\cap DK∩D.
  • Hypotheses made explicit: q>1q>1q>1; non-negativity of the estimates in Theorem 5.6 (used in its proof); unbiasedness E[ℓ~t∣xt]=ℓt\mathbb E[\tilde\ell_t\mid x_t]=\ell_tE[ℓ~t​∣xt​]=ℓt​ in the general parts of Theorems 5.6 and 5.7; K∩(0,∞)d≠∅\mathcal K\cap(0,\infty)^d\ne\emptysetK∩(0,∞)d=∅ (OMD's requirement K∩D≠∅K\cap D\ne\emptysetK∩D=∅); a subgradient selection as an explicit input.
  • Theorem 5.6's particular bound uses the book's η=2mndln⁡dm\eta=\sqrt{\frac{2m}{nd}\ln\frac dm}η=nd2m​lnmd​​ as printed. There are no O(·) constants in the chapter's statements.

A trivializing formalization would let η\etaη, xtx_txt​ or the estimate be junk values: an OSMD step at η=0\eta=0η=0, a Lean division x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0, or a regret written as a real infimum over an unbounded set. Here every run is the book's algorithm on the open orthant, and each bound is stated against every comparator in K\mathcal KK.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Legendre/Bregman layer, the OMD run predicate and the ω\omegaω-potential layer. Proofs of Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2 in this generality would be welcome additions to the library.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5(1), 2012; arXiv:1204.5721v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5721
  • N. Cesa-Bianchi, G. Lugosi, Prediction, Learning, and Games, Cambridge University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546921
  • J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, Regret bounds and minimax policies under partial monitoring, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11, 2010. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v11/audibert10a.html
  • J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, G. Lugosi, Regret in online combinatorial optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0598
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems II: High-Probability and Expected Regret of Exp3.PTextbook

Motivation

In the adversarial (non-stochastic) multi-armed bandit problem a forecaster repeatedly chooses one of KKK actions while an opponent sets the rewards, and only the reward of the chosen action is revealed. The model was proposed as a way of playing an unknown repeated game: Baños (1968) studied the repeated game in which the player observes only its own payoff, which is exactly the bandit problem against an opponent who reacts to the player's past moves. It is the basic model of online decision making under partial feedback without statistical assumptions, and it underlies regret minimization in games, adversarial routing and online advertising. Chapter 3 of Bubeck and Cesa-Bianchi's monograph (arXiv:1204.5721v2) collects its fundamental results: the Exp3 forecaster of Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund and Schapire (SIAM J. Comput. 2002), its high-probability variant Exp3.P, and the nK\sqrt{nK}nK​ minimax lower bound.

Setting

There are K≥2K \ge 2K≥2 arms and rounds t=1,2,…,nt = 1, 2, \dots, nt=1,2,…,n. At each round an adversary assigns a gain gi,t∈[0,1]g_{i,t} \in [0,1]gi,t​∈[0,1] to every arm iii; the forecaster picks an arm ItI_tIt​, possibly at random, and observes only gIt,tg_{I_t,t}gIt​,t​. The adversary may be non-oblivious (adaptive): gi,t=gi,t(I1,…,It−1)g_{i,t} = g_{i,t}(I_1,\dots,I_{t-1})gi,t​=gi,t​(I1​,…,It−1​) may depend on the forecaster's past actions. A forecaster rule maps the past actions to a probability vector ptp_tpt​ on the arms, and a run is a sequence of random arms with It∼ptI_t \sim p_tIt​∼pt​ given the past. The regret is the random variable

Rn=max⁡i=1,…,K∑t=1ngi,t−∑t=1ngIt,t,R_n = \max_{i=1,\dots,K}\sum_{t=1}^n g_{i,t} - \sum_{t=1}^n g_{I_t,t},Rn​=i=1,…,Kmax​t=1∑n​gi,t​−t=1∑n​gIt​,t​,

and, in the loss version ℓi,t∈[0,1]\ell_{i,t} \in [0,1]ℓi,t​∈[0,1], the pseudo-regret is R‾n=E∑tℓIt,t−min⁡iE∑tℓi,t\overline R_n = \mathbb E\sum_t \ell_{I_t,t} - \min_i \mathbb E\sum_t \ell_{i,t}Rn​=E∑t​ℓIt​,t​−mini​E∑t​ℓi,t​. Since the maximum sits inside the expectation, R‾n≤ERn\overline R_n \le \mathbb E R_nRn​≤ERn​ in the gain version, and against an adaptive adversary the two can differ.

Exp3 draws ItI_tIt​ from exponential weights pi,t+1∝exp⁡(−ηtL~i,t)p_{i,t+1} \propto \exp(-\eta_t \tilde L_{i,t})pi,t+1​∝exp(−ηt​L~i,t​) of importance-weighted cumulative loss estimates L~i,t=∑s≤tℓi,s1Is=i/pi,s\tilde L_{i,t} = \sum_{s \le t} \ell_{i,s}\mathbb 1_{I_s = i}/p_{i,s}L~i,t​=∑s≤t​ℓi,s​1Is​=i​/pi,s​. Exp3.P uses biased gain estimates g~i,t=(gi,t1It=i+β)/pi,t\tilde g_{i,t} = (g_{i,t}\mathbb 1_{I_t=i} + \beta)/p_{i,t}g~​i,t​=(gi,t​1It​=i​+β)/pi,t​ and mixes in the uniform distribution:

pi,t+1=(1−γ)exp⁡(ηG~i,t)∑kexp⁡(ηG~k,t)+γK,G~i,t=∑s=1tg~i,s.p_{i,t+1} = (1-\gamma)\frac{\exp(\eta\tilde G_{i,t})}{\sum_k \exp(\eta \tilde G_{k,t})} + \frac{\gamma}{K}, \qquad \tilde G_{i,t} = \sum_{s=1}^t \tilde g_{i,s}.pi,t+1​=(1−γ)∑k​exp(ηG~k,t​)exp(ηG~i,t​)​+Kγ​,G~i,t​=s=1∑t​g~​i,s​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (expected regret of Exp3.P)

With β=ln⁡K/(nK)\beta = \sqrt{\ln K/(nK)}β=lnK/(nK)​, η=0.95ln⁡K/(nK)\eta = 0.95\sqrt{\ln K/(nK)}η=0.95lnK/(nK)​, γ=1.05Kln⁡K/n\gamma = 1.05\sqrt{K\ln K/n}γ=1.05KlnK/n​, against every adaptive adversary,

ERn≤5.15nKln⁡K+nKln⁡K.\mathbb E R_n \le 5.15\sqrt{nK\ln K} + \sqrt{\frac{nK}{\ln K}}.ERn​≤5.15nKlnK​+lnKnK​​.

Milestones

  • Lemma 3.1: for β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] and a fixed arm iii, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, ∑tgi,t≤∑tg~i,t+ln⁡(δ−1)/β\sum_t g_{i,t} \le \sum_t \tilde g_{i,t} + \ln(\delta^{-1})/\beta∑t​gi,t​≤∑t​g~​i,t​+ln(δ−1)/β.
  • Eq. (3.12): if γ≤1/2\gamma \le 1/2γ≤1/2 and (1+β)Kη≤γ(1+\beta)K\eta \le \gamma(1+β)Kη≤γ, then with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,
Rn≤βnK+γn+(1+β)ηKn+ln⁡(Kδ−1)β+ln⁡Kη.R_n \le \beta nK + \gamma n + (1+\beta)\eta Kn + \frac{\ln(K\delta^{-1})}{\beta} + \frac{\ln K}{\eta}.Rn​≤βnK+γn+(1+β)ηKn+βln(Kδ−1)​+ηlnK​.
  • Theorem 3.2: with β=ln⁡(Kδ−1)/(nK)\beta = \sqrt{\ln(K\delta^{-1})/(nK)}β=ln(Kδ−1)/(nK)​, Rn≤5.15nKln⁡(Kδ−1)R_n \le 5.15\sqrt{nK\ln(K\delta^{-1})}Rn​≤5.15nKln(Kδ−1)​ (3.10); with β=ln⁡K/(nK)\beta = \sqrt{\ln K/(nK)}β=lnK/(nK)​, Rn≤nK/ln⁡K ln⁡(δ−1)+5.15nKln⁡KR_n \le \sqrt{nK/\ln K}\,\ln(\delta^{-1}) + 5.15\sqrt{nK\ln K}Rn​≤nK/lnK​ln(δ−1)+5.15nKlnK​ (3.11), each with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.
  • Theorem 3.1: Exp3 with η=2ln⁡K/(nK)\eta = \sqrt{2\ln K/(nK)}η=2lnK/(nK)​ has R‾n≤2nKln⁡K\overline R_n \le \sqrt{2nK\ln K}Rn​≤2nKlnK​ (3.2); with ηt=ln⁡K/(tK)\eta_t = \sqrt{\ln K/(tK)}ηt​=lnK/(tK)​, R‾n≤2nKln⁡K\overline R_n \le 2\sqrt{nK\ln K}Rn​≤2nKlnK​ (3.3).
  • Lemma 3.2 and Theorem 3.4: for n≥K≥2n \ge K \ge 2n≥K≥2 and every forecaster there is a Bernoulli instance with max⁡iE∑tYi,t−E∑tYIt,t≥nK/20\max_i \mathbb E\sum_t Y_{i,t} - \mathbb E\sum_t Y_{I_t,t} \ge \sqrt{nK}/20maxi​E∑t​Yi,t​−E∑t​YIt​,t​≥nK​/20.

Significance

The goal bounds the expected regret, not the pseudo-regret, against an opponent that adapts to the forecaster's randomized past choices. A pseudo-regret bound says nothing about ERn\mathbb E R_nERn​ in that setting, and the book obtains the expected-regret bound by first proving a high-probability bound valid at every confidence level, (3.11), and integrating its tail. Together with Theorem 3.4 the chapter shows that nK\sqrt{nK}nK​ is the minimax rate of adversarial bandits up to a ln⁡K\sqrt{\ln K}lnK​ factor. Lemma 3.1, the concentration of biased importance-weighted estimates, holds for any forecaster rule and is the step that turns exponential weights into a high-probability guarantee.

All results are proved in the book. On the formal side, the platform has the pseudo-regret bound of Exp3 against an oblivious adversary (a fixed reward table, Bandit Algorithms V) and an Exp3-IX high-probability bound; it has no Exp3.P, no regret bound against adaptive adversaries and no Bernoulli nK/20\sqrt{nK}/20nK​/20 lower bound. This mission adds an explicit model of adaptive adversaries and randomized forecaster runs, and the chapter's statements with the book's exact constants.

Difficulty

Against an adaptive adversary the gains are random and depend on the forecaster's own past draws, so the argument used for a fixed reward table (take expectations of an inequality that holds for every fixed sequence) does not control ERn\mathbb E R_nERn​: the maximum over arms does not commute with the expectation. Unbiased estimates do not help either, because the variance of ℓi,t/pi,t\ell_{i,t}/p_{i,t}ℓi,t​/pi,t​ is of order 1/pi,t1/p_{i,t}1/pi,t​, which can be arbitrarily large; even with uniform mixing at rate n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 the cumulative variance is of order n3/2n^{3/2}n3/2. The bias β\betaβ and the mixing γ\gammaγ have to be tuned jointly so that the estimate concentrates while the exponential-weights analysis survives, and the constants 0.950.950.95, 1.051.051.05 and 5.155.155.15 come out of that tuning. The lower bound needs an information-theoretic comparison of a forecaster's behaviour on K+1K+1K+1 Bernoulli instances, against forecasters that may be randomized.

Formalization scope

Arms are Fin K with K≥2K \ge 2K≥2; rounds are numbered 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n; logarithms are natural. Action sequences are functions N→\mathbb N \toN→ Fin K whose entry 000 is ignored. An adversary is a structure holding values in [0,1][0,1][0,1] that may depend on the past actions only (gains for Exp3.P, losses for Exp3); a randomized adversary with independent external randomness reduces to this case by conditioning. A run of a forecaster rule ppp on a probability space is pinned down by the cylinder identity P(I1=h1,…,It=ht)=P(I1=h1,…,It−1=ht−1) pt(h)(ht)\mathbb P(I_1 = h_1,\dots,I_t = h_t) = \mathbb P(I_1=h_1,\dots,I_{t-1}=h_{t-1})\,p_t(h)(h_t)P(I1​=h1​,…,It​=ht​)=P(I1​=h1​,…,It−1​=ht−1​)pt​(h)(ht​), which determines the law of (I1,…,In)(I_1,\dots,I_n)(I1​,…,In​). "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is P(event)≥1−δ\mathbb P(\text{event}) \ge 1-\deltaP(event)≥1−δ for δ∈(0,1)\delta \in (0,1)δ∈(0,1), and ERn\mathbb E R_nERn​ is the Bochner integral of the bounded, measurable regret. The lower bounds use a stochastic model in which the forecaster sees past actions and the rewards of the played arms, and rewards are i.i.d. product Bernoulli.

Constants and conventions:

  • Every constant is the book's exact one: 0.950.950.95, 1.051.051.05, 5.155.155.15, 1/201/201/20. No O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is involved.
  • Exp3.P with 1.05Kln⁡K/n>11.05\sqrt{K\ln K/n} > 11.05KlnK/n​>1 is outside the box's range γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1]; its vector can then have negative entries, and if it does on a history of positive probability no run exists. This happens only when n<1.11 Kln⁡Kn < 1.11\,K\ln Kn<1.11KlnK, where the printed bounds already follow from Rn≤nR_n \le nRn​≤n, so the statements are true there whether or not a run exists.
  • Corrected misprints: the Exp3 box's ℓ~i,s\tilde\ell_{i,s}ℓ~i,s​ is ℓ~i,t\tilde\ell_{i,t}ℓ~i,t​; the sign in (3.16) is the box's exp⁡(+ηG~)\exp(+\eta\tilde G)exp(+ηG~); the proof of (3.10) says the bound is trivial "if n≥5.15⋯n \ge 5.15\sqrt{\cdots}n≥5.15⋯​", which should be n≤n \len≤. The statements carry no lower bound on nnn.
  • Added standing hypotheses: K≥2K \ge 2K≥2 everywhere, n≥Kn \ge Kn≥K in Theorem 3.4 (from the protocol box, p. 6; Theorem 3.4 is false without it), β>0\beta > 0β>0 and pi,t>0p_{i,t} > 0pi,t​>0 in Lemma 3.1.
  • Theorem 3.4 is stated as "for every forecaster there is a Bernoulli instance with regret at least nK/20\sqrt{nK}/20nK​/20", which implies the book's inf⁡sup⁡\inf\supinfsup (3.18).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the forecasters are fixed rules of the observed history drawn with fresh randomness, the adversary is not restricted to a fixed sequence, and the lower bounds quantify over all forecasters and exhibit the instance.

Welcome contributions: a reusable construction of runs (existence of a probability space carrying a run for every rule), the supermartingale form of Lemma 3.1, the exponential-weights potential argument, a tail-integration lemma EW≤∫01δ−1P(W>ln⁡δ−1) dδ\mathbb E W \le \int_0^1 \delta^{-1}\mathbb P(W > \ln\delta^{-1})\,d\deltaEW≤∫01​δ−1P(W>lnδ−1)dδ, and a KL/Pinsker comparison for bandit runs.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5(1), 2012. arXiv:1204.5721v2, doi:10.1561/2200000024
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund, R. E. Schapire, The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem, SIAM Journal on Computing 32(1), 2002. doi:10.1137/S0097539701398375
  • J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, Regret bounds and minimax policies under partial monitoring, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11, 2010. jmlr.org/papers/v11/audibert10a
  • N. Cesa-Bianchi, G. Lugosi, Prediction, Learning, and Games, Cambridge University Press, 2006. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511546921
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Scheduling of a System with Two Parallel Servers in Heavy Traffic with Resource Pooling: The Threshold Policy Is Asymptotically OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service systems route several classes of work to servers with overlapping skills: call centers with cross-trained agents, manufacturing cells with flexible machines, computing clusters with heterogeneous processors. Choosing which server works on which class at each moment is a dynamic scheduling problem. Exact optimal policies are out of reach except in toy cases, so heavy-traffic theory replaces the queueing system by a Brownian control problem, solves that limit problem, and then asks for a policy in the original system whose performance converges to the Brownian optimum. This programme was proposed by Harrison (Harrison 1988), and the parallel server system studied here is the example Harrison used (Harrison, Ann. Appl. Probab. 1998) to show that the greedy static priority rule can be very inefficient.

Bell and Williams (2001) gave the first proof of asymptotic optimality of a continuous-review policy for this system, with renewal arrivals and general service times. Harrison (1998) had treated Poisson arrivals and deterministic service times with a discrete-review policy and a pathwise criterion. Harrison and López (Queueing Systems, 1999) identified the complete resource pooling condition for general parallel server systems. The threshold policy and the proof method of Bell and Williams were later extended to multiserver systems (Bell and Williams, Electron. J. Probab., 2005).

Setting

There are two job classes and two servers. Server 1 serves class 1 (activity 1); server 2 serves class 1 (activity 2) and class 2 (activity 3). A sequence of such systems is indexed by r→∞r\to\inftyr→∞. On a probability space, i.i.d. sequences uˇk(i)\check u_k(i)uˇk​(i) (k=1,2k=1,2k=1,2) and vˇj(i)\check v_j(i)vˇj​(i) (j=1,2,3j=1,2,3j=1,2,3), i≥1i\ge1i≥1, are fixed: strictly positive, mutually independent, with mean one and finite variances αk2,βj2\alpha_k^2,\beta_j^2αk2​,βj2​. In system rrr the interarrival times are ukr(i)=uˇk(i)/λkru_k^r(i)=\check u_k(i)/\lambda_k^rukr​(i)=uˇk​(i)/λkr​ and the service times are vjr(i)=vˇj(i)/μjrv_j^r(i)=\check v_j(i)/\mu_j^rvjr​(i)=vˇj​(i)/μjr​. The renewal processes Akr(t)A_k^r(t)Akr​(t) and Sjr(t)S_j^r(t)Sjr​(t) count arrivals and potential service completions.

A scheduling control policy is an allocation T=(T1,T2,T3)T=(T_1,T_2,T_3)T=(T1​,T2​,T3​), where Tj(t)T_j(t)Tj​(t) is the time devoted to activity jjj in [0,t][0,t][0,t]. Each Tj(t)T_j(t)Tj​(t) is a random variable, each TjT_jTj​ is continuous and nondecreasing from 000, and so are the idle times I1=t−T1I_1=t-T_1I1​=t−T1​ and I2=t−T2−T3I_2=t-T_2-T_3I2​=t−T2​−T3​. The queue lengths

Q1(t)=A1(t)−S1(T1(t))−S2(T2(t)),Q2(t)=A2(t)−S3(T3(t))Q_1(t)=A_1(t)-S_1(T_1(t))-S_2(T_2(t)),\qquad Q_2(t)=A_2(t)-S_3(T_3(t))Q1​(t)=A1​(t)−S1​(T1​(t))−S2​(T2​(t)),Q2​(t)=A2​(t)−S3​(T3​(t))

must be nonnegative. Policies may anticipate the future. The rates satisfy Assumption 3.1: λ1>μ1\lambda_1>\mu_1λ1​>μ1​, 1−(λ1−μ1)/μ2=λ2/μ31-(\lambda_1-\mu_1)/\mu_2=\lambda_2/\mu_31−(λ1​−μ1​)/μ2​=λ2​/μ3​, and the rates converge at rate 1/r1/r1/r to limits with second-order parameters θ1,θ2\theta_1,\theta_2θ1​,θ2​. Assumption 3.2 is h1μ2≥h2μ3h_1\mu_2\ge h_2\mu_3h1​μ2​≥h2​μ3​, and Assumption 3.3 gives finite exponential moments near 000. With Q^r(t)=r−1Qr(r2t)\hat Q^r(t)=r^{-1}Q^r(r^2t)Q^​r(t)=r−1Qr(r2t) the cost is

J^r(Tr)=E(∫0∞e−γt h⋅Q^r(t) dt).\hat J^r(T^r)=\mathbf E\Big(\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\,h\cdot\hat Q^r(t)\,dt\Big).J^r(Tr)=E(∫0∞​e−γth⋅Q^​r(t)dt).

The threshold policy with Lr=[clog⁡r]L^r=[c\log r]Lr=[clogr] works as follows. Server 1 works whenever it has a class 1 job available. Server 2 serves class 1 with preemptive-resume priority when more than LrL^rLr class 1 jobs are present, and otherwise serves class 2. The Brownian benchmark is built from a two-dimensional Brownian motion X~\tilde XX~ with drift θ\thetaθ and diagonal covariance, from y=(1,μ2/μ3)y=(1,\mu_2/\mu_3)y=(1,μ2​/μ3​), and from the reflected process W~∗=y⋅X~+V~∗\tilde W^*=y\cdot\tilde X+\tilde V^*W~∗=y⋅X~+V~∗ with V~∗(t)=−inf⁡s≤ty⋅X~(s)\tilde V^*(t)=-\inf_{s\le t}y\cdot\tilde X(s)V~∗(t)=−infs≤t​y⋅X~(s). Its cost is J∗=E∫0∞e−γth2 W~∗(t)/y2 dtJ^*=\mathbf E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}h_2\,\tilde W^*(t)/y_2\,dtJ∗=E∫0∞​e−γth2​W~∗(t)/y2​dt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

For ccc larger than a constant c0c_0c0​ that depends only on the model data, and for every sequence {Tr}\{T^r\}{Tr} of scheduling control policies,

lim inf⁡r→∞J^r(Tr) ≥ J∗ = lim⁡r→∞J^r(Tr,∗),J∗<∞.\liminf_{r\to\infty}\hat J^r(T^r)\ \ge\ J^*\ =\ \lim_{r\to\infty}\hat J^r(T^{r,*}),\qquad J^*<\infty .r→∞liminf​J^r(Tr) ≥ J∗ = r→∞lim​J^r(Tr,∗),J∗<∞.

Milestones

  • Proposition B.1: the one-dimensional Skorokhod problem, its explicit solution and its minimality.
  • Appendix A, (181) and (184): Cramér-type deviation bounds for delayed renewal processes.
  • Theorem 7.2: after first reaching LrL^rLr, the class 1 queue stays within Lr−1L^r-1Lr−1 of the threshold, with probability tending to one.
  • Theorem 7.1: (Q^1r,I^1r)⇒(0,0)(\hat Q_1^r,\hat I_1^r)\Rightarrow(0,0)(Q^​1r​,I^1r​)⇒(0,0) under the threshold policy.
  • Lemma 8.1: the fluid-scaled threshold allocations converge to Tˉ∗(t)=(t,λ1−μ1μ2t,λ2μ3t)\bar T^*(t)=(t,\frac{\lambda_1-\mu_1}{\mu_2}t,\frac{\lambda_2}{\mu_3}t)Tˉ∗(t)=(t,μ2​λ1​−μ1​​t,μ3​λ2​​t).
  • Theorem 5.2 (state-space collapse): (Q^1r,Q^2r,I^1r,I^2r)⇒(0,Q~2∗,0,I~2∗)(\hat Q_1^r,\hat Q_2^r,\hat I_1^r,\hat I_2^r)\Rightarrow(0,\tilde Q_2^*,0,\tilde I_2^*)(Q^​1r​,Q^​2r​,I^1r​,I^2r​)⇒(0,Q~​2∗​,0,I~2∗​).
  • Lemma 9.3: along a subsequence achieving a finite lim inf⁡\liminfliminf cost, the fluid-scaled processes converge to (0,λt,μt,Tˉ∗,0)(0,\lambda t,\mu t,\bar T^*,0)(0,λt,μt,Tˉ∗,0).

A further draft theorem states that Definition 5.1 determines an admissible allocation, unique pathwise, whenever Lr≥1L^r\ge1Lr≥1.

Significance

The theorem proves that a simple state-dependent rule, which sends server 2 to class 1 only when the class 1 queue exceeds a logarithmic safety stock, is asymptotically optimal among all policies, including those that anticipate the future. The limiting cost is the explicit optimum of the Brownian control problem. The proof gives a template for heavy-traffic asymptotic optimality under complete resource pooling: a lower bound valid for every policy, and state-space collapse under the proposed policy. The residual process analysis of Section 7 shows how a threshold of order log⁡r\log rlogr makes starvation of server 1 negligible on the diffusion time scale.

The paper's results are proved but not machine-checked; no formal proof exists in any proof assistant. The mission asks for formal statements of the paper's main theorem and its supporting lemmas, followed by formal proofs. Parts of the development are independent of the paper: the one-dimensional Skorokhod map, renewal large deviation bounds, and convergence encodings on path space.

Difficulty

The lower bound must hold for arbitrary, possibly anticipating, policies, so no Markov structure is available. The argument has to pass through fluid limits of an arbitrary cost-minimizing subsequence and a pathwise minimality property, and Fatou's lemma for the limit needs uniform control. For the upper bound, the obvious approach, a static priority rule, is known to fail: it starves server 1 and produces a large class 1 queue. With a threshold policy, the hard step is to show that the class 1 queue, once at the threshold, rarely moves Lr−1L^r-1Lr−1 away from it over a time interval of length r2tr^2tr2t. That requires large deviation estimates for renewal processes started at random, multiparameter stopping times. Showing that J^r(Tr,∗)\hat J^r(T^{r,*})J^r(Tr,∗) converges to J∗J^*J∗, rather than only that the processes converge in distribution, also requires uniform integrability of the scaled queue lengths.

Formalization scope

Classes and activities are indexed by Fin 2 and Fin 3. The i.i.d. sequences keep the paper's index base i≥1i\ge1i≥1, and the systems are indexed by n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N with r=rn∈[1,∞)r=r_n\in[1,\infty)r=rn​∈[1,∞), rn→∞r_n\to\inftyrn​→∞. Time is real, and every condition is imposed for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Admissibility is exactly (11)–(14). Measurability in (11) is with respect to the completion of P\mathbf PP, since the paper's space is complete. Finiteness of the renewal processes everywhere on Ω\OmegaΩ, which the paper obtains by discarding a null set, is a hypothesis. Queue lengths are real, costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], counting processes take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and Λ\LambdaΛ, Λ∗\Lambda^*Λ∗ take values in the extended reals.

The constant c0c_0c0​ is existential and is chosen after the model data and before ccc, the policies and the Brownian motions. The threshold relations are required only for the systems with Lr≥1L^r\ge1Lr≥1, which are all but finitely many. Each convergence to a deterministic limit (Theorem 7.1, Lemmas 8.1 and 9.3) is stated as u.o.c. convergence in probability, the paper's own equivalence (p. 633). Theorem 5.2 is stated in coupling form: there are copies of the processes on one probability space, with Skorokhod paths and the same laws, that converge almost surely uniformly on compacts. This is equivalent to weak convergence in D4\mathbf D^4D4 to a limit with continuous paths. J∗J^*J∗ is defined by (44) from an arbitrary pair of independent standard Brownian motions (Mathlib's IsBrownianReal), not by a closed form.

Two formalizations would make the goal trivial, and both are excluded. Leaving out the requirement that Tr,∗T^{r,*}Tr,∗ actually follow the policy would make the goal false or empty. Narrowing the class of competing policies, for example to non-anticipating ones, would weaken the theorem. A draft theorem also states that the threshold allocation exists and is unique pathwise, so the hypothesis on Tr,∗T^{r,*}Tr,∗ can be satisfied.

The development needs renewal theory (functional central limit theorems, Cramér bounds), multiparameter stopping times, tightness in D\mathbf DD, the Skorokhod representation theorem, the reflection map, and properties of reflected Brownian motion. Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of milestones, reusable lemmas on renewal processes and the Skorokhod map, and further lemmas of the paper (Lemmas 7.5, 7.6 and 9.2 are not yet stated).

Selected references

  • S. L. Bell and R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers in heavy traffic with resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Ann. Appl. Probab. 11 (2001) 608–649. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015345343
  • J. M. Harrison, Heavy traffic analysis of a system with parallel servers: asymptotic optimality of discrete-review policies, Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 822–848.
  • J. M. Harrison and M. J. López, Heavy traffic resource pooling in parallel-server systems, Queueing Systems 33 (1999) 339–368.
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian models of queueing networks with heterogeneous customer populations, in Stochastic Differential Systems, Stochastic Control Theory and Their Applications, Springer (1988) 147–186.
  • S. L. Bell and R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a parallel server system in heavy traffic with complete resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Electron. J. Probab. 10 (2005) 1044–1115.
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Flow Systems, Wiley (1985).
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Control TheoryMathematical PhysicsOptimization+3·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses III: The Lagrangian Value of the Stochastic Control Problem Equals the Parisi FunctionalResearch Paper

Motivation

The ground-state energy of a mixed ppp-spin spin glass, OPTN=max⁡σ∈{±1}NHN(σ)/N\mathsf{OPT}_N=\max_{\sigma\in\{\pm1\}^N}H_N(\sigma)/NOPTN​=maxσ∈{±1}N​HN​(σ)/N, converges almost surely to the infimum of the Parisi functional over non-decreasing order parameters (Auffinger–Chen 2017). El Alaoui, Montanari and Sellke (arXiv:2001.00904v1) study algorithms that find near-optimal configurations. They introduce incremental approximate message passing (IAMP) and show that, among a broad class of such algorithms, the best achievable energy is the infimum of the Parisi functional over a larger space of order parameters (their Theorem 4).

The upper bound in Theorem 4 is reduced, in Section 4 of the paper, to a stochastic optimal control problem. The energy reached by a message-passing algorithm becomes the objective of a control problem driven by a Brownian motion, with a terminal constraint and a variance constraint. The variance constraint is removed by a Lagrange multiplier 12ξ′′γ\tfrac12\xi''\gamma21​ξ′′γ. Proposition 4.1 states that the resulting Lagrangian value is exactly the Parisi functional P(γ)\mathsf P(\gamma)P(γ). This mission formalizes that duality and the verification argument behind it (Section 7).

Setting

Mixture. Real coefficients (ck)k≥2(c_k)_{k\ge2}(ck​)k≥2​ define the mixture ξ(t)=∑k≥2ck2tk\xi(t)=\sum_{k\ge2}c_k^2t^kξ(t)=∑k≥2​ck2​tk, with the standing assumption ξ(1+ε)<∞\xi(1+\varepsilon)<\inftyξ(1+ε)<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. Its derivatives ξ′\xi'ξ′, ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ are nonnegative and nondecreasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Order parameters. SF+\mathsf{SF}_+SF+​ is the set of nonnegative step functions

γ=∑i=1mγi I[ti−1,ti),0=t0<t1<⋯<tm=1, γi≥0.\gamma=\sum_{i=1}^m\gamma_i\,\mathbb I_{[t_{i-1},t_i)},\qquad 0=t_0<t_1<\dots<t_m=1,\ \gamma_i\ge0 .γ=i=1∑m​γi​I[ti−1​,ti​)​,0=t0​<t1​<⋯<tm​=1, γi​≥0.

Put ν(t)=∫t1ξ′′(s)γ(s) ds\nu(t)=\int_t^1\xi''(s)\gamma(s)\,dsν(t)=∫t1​ξ′′(s)γ(s)ds.

Parisi PDE and functional. Φγ:[0,1]×R→R\Phi_\gamma:[0,1]\times\mathbb R\to\mathbb RΦγ​:[0,1]×R→R solves

∂tΦγ+12ξ′′(t)(∂x2Φγ+γ(t)(∂xΦγ)2)=0,Φγ(1,x)=∣x∣.\partial_t\Phi_\gamma+\tfrac12\xi''(t)\big(\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma+\gamma(t)(\partial_x\Phi_\gamma)^2\big)=0,\qquad\Phi_\gamma(1,x)=|x| .∂t​Φγ​+21​ξ′′(t)(∂x2​Φγ​+γ(t)(∂x​Φγ​)2)=0,Φγ​(1,x)=∣x∣.

For γ∈SF+\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+γ∈SF+​ it is given explicitly by the Cole–Hopf recursion: with r(t)=ξ′(1)−ξ′(t)r(t)=\xi'(1)-\xi'(t)r(t)=ξ′(1)−ξ′(t) and G∼N(0,1)G\sim\mathsf N(0,1)G∼N(0,1), for t∈[ti−1,ti)t\in[t_{i-1},t_i)t∈[ti−1​,ti​),

Φγ(t,x)=1γilog⁡Eexp⁡{γiΦγ(ti,x+r(t)−r(ti) G)}.\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=\frac1{\gamma_i}\log\mathbb E\exp\big\{\gamma_i\Phi_\gamma(t_i,x+\sqrt{r(t)-r(t_i)}\,G)\big\}.Φγ​(t,x)=γi​1​logEexp{γi​Φγ​(ti​,x+r(t)−r(ti​)​G)}.

The Parisi functional is P(γ)=Φγ(0,0)−12∫01t ξ′′(t)γ(t) dt\mathsf P(\gamma)=\Phi_\gamma(0,0)-\tfrac12\int_0^1t\,\xi''(t)\gamma(t)\,dtP(γ)=Φγ​(0,0)−21​∫01​tξ′′(t)γ(t)dt.

Control problem. Let BBB be a standard Brownian motion. A control u∈D[t,1]u\in D[t,1]u∈D[t,1] is a process on [t,1][t,1][t,1], progressively measurable for the filtration of (Br)r∈[t,1](B_r)_{r\in[t,1]}(Br​)r∈[t,1]​, with E∫t1ξ′′(s)us2 ds<∞\mathbb E\int_t^1\xi''(s)u_s^2\,ds<\inftyE∫t1​ξ′′(s)us2​ds<∞. The value is

Jγ(t,z)=sup⁡u∈D[t,1]E[∫t1ξ′′(s)us ds+12∫t1ν(s)(ξ′′(s)us2−1)ds]s.t.z+∫t1ξ′′(s) us dBs∈(−1,1) a.s.\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=\sup_{u\in D[t,1]}\mathbb E\Big[\int_t^1\xi''(s)u_s\,ds+\frac12\int_t^1\nu(s)\big(\xi''(s)u_s^2-1\big)ds\Big]\quad\text{s.t.}\quad z+\int_t^1\sqrt{\xi''(s)}\,u_s\,dB_s\in(-1,1)\ \text{a.s.}Jγ​(t,z)=u∈D[t,1]sup​E[∫t1​ξ′′(s)us​ds+21​∫t1​ν(s)(ξ′′(s)us2​−1)ds]s.t.z+∫t1​ξ′′(s)​us​dBs​∈(−1,1) a.s.

Candidate value function. With Φγ∗(t,z)=inf⁡x{Φγ(t,x)−xz}\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=\inf_x\{\Phi_\gamma(t,x)-xz\}Φγ∗​(t,z)=infx​{Φγ​(t,x)−xz},

V(t,z)=Φγ∗(t,z)−12ν(t)z2−12∫t1ν(s) ds.V(t,z)=\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)-\tfrac12\nu(t)z^2-\tfrac12\int_t^1\nu(s)\,ds .V(t,z)=Φγ∗​(t,z)−21​ν(t)z2−21​∫t1​ν(s)ds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.1

Jγ(0,0)=P(γ)for every γ∈SF+.\mathcal J_\gamma(0,0)=\mathsf P(\gamma)\qquad\text{for every }\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+ .Jγ​(0,0)=P(γ)for every γ∈SF+​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.2 (a)–(e): Φγ(t,⋅)\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)Φγ​(t,⋅) is smooth for t<1t<1t<1, with derivatives jointly continuous on [0,1)×R[0,1)\times\mathbb R[0,1)×R and C1C^1C1 in time where γ\gammaγ is constant. The range of ∂xΦγ(t,⋅)\partial_x\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)∂x​Φγ​(t,⋅) is (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1), it is strictly increasing, and 0<∂x2Φγ(t′,x)≤C(t,γ)0<\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma(t',x)\le C(t,\gamma)0<∂x2​Φγ​(t′,x)≤C(t,γ) for t′≤tt'\le tt′≤t.
  2. Envelope identities (proof of Lemma 7.3): ∂zΦγ∗(t,z)=−xt∗(z)\partial_z\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=-x^*_t(z)∂z​Φγ∗​(t,z)=−xt∗​(z) and ∂z2Φγ∗(t,z)=−1/∂x2Φγ(t,xt∗(z))\partial_z^2\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=-1/\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma(t,x^*_t(z))∂z2​Φγ∗​(t,z)=−1/∂x2​Φγ​(t,xt∗​(z)), where xt∗(z)x^*_t(z)xt∗​(z) is the unique root of ∂xΦγ(t,x)=z\partial_x\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=z∂x​Φγ​(t,x)=z.
  3. Lemma 7.3: VVV solves the HJB equation
∂tV+ξ′′(t)sup⁡λ∈R{λ+λ22(ν(t)+∂z2V)}−12ν(t)=0,V(1,z)=0.\partial_tV+\xi''(t)\sup_{\lambda\in\mathbb R}\Big\{\lambda+\frac{\lambda^2}{2}\big(\nu(t)+\partial_z^2V\big)\Big\}-\frac12\nu(t)=0,\qquad V(1,z)=0 .∂t​V+ξ′′(t)λ∈Rsup​{λ+2λ2​(ν(t)+∂z2​V)}−21​ν(t)=0,V(1,z)=0.
  1. Evaluation at the origin: V(0,0)=P(γ)V(0,0)=\mathsf P(\gamma)V(0,0)=P(γ).
  2. Proposition 7.1: Jγ(t,z)=V(t,z)\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=V(t,z)Jγ​(t,z)=V(t,z) for all (t,z)∈[0,1]×(−1,1)(t,z)\in[0,1]\times(-1,1)(t,z)∈[0,1]×(−1,1).

Proposition 7.1 at (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) together with milestone 4 gives the goal.

Significance

The result. By integration by parts (Eq. (4.4) of the paper), Jγ(0,0)\mathcal J_\gamma(0,0)Jγ​(0,0) bounds the value of the constrained control problem (4.2). That problem in turn bounds the asymptotic energy of every message-passing algorithm in the class of Theorem 4. Proposition 4.1 turns the bound into inf⁡γ∈SF+P(γ)\inf_{\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+}\mathsf P(\gamma)infγ∈SF+​​P(γ), which is the analytic core of the optimality statement for IAMP. It is also an instance of a broader principle: the Parisi functional has a stochastic-control representation (Jagannath–Tobasco 2016).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A complete formalization needs a verification theorem for a control problem with a state constraint (M1∈(−1,1)M_1\in(-1,1)M1​∈(−1,1)), Itô's formula for a C1,2C^{1,2}C1,2 function that is only piecewise C1C^1C1 in time, and quantitative regularity of the Cole–Hopf solution. Each of these is reusable well beyond spin glasses.

Difficulty

The value function Jγ\mathcal J_\gammaJγ​ is not known to be smooth, and the dynamic-programming equation (4.6) is only heuristic. The proof therefore guesses a solution and verifies it. Two steps carry the difficulty.

First, the guess VVV is a Legendre transform. Its regularity, and the sign ν+∂z2V<0\nu+\partial_z^2V<0ν+∂z2​V<0 that makes the HJB supremum finite, rest on strict convexity and bounded curvature of Φγ(t,⋅)\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)Φγ​(t,⋅) (Lemma 7.2). These must be proved by induction through the Cole–Hopf recursion, including the steps with γi=0\gamma_i=0γi​=0.

Second, the verification argument applies Itô's formula to V(s,Msu)V(s,M^u_s)V(s,Msu​), where MuM^uMu is a martingale confined to (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1) and VVV is only C1C^1C1 in time between the jumps of γ\gammaγ. The boundary θ→1\theta\to1θ→1 needs a dominated-convergence argument, and attaining the supremum needs an explicit optimal feedback control built from an SDE.

Formalization scope

  • Mixture. ξ\xiξ is a coefficient sequence c:N→Rc:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rc:N→R with c0=c1=0c_0=c_1=0c0​=c1​=0 imposed. ξ′\xi'ξ′ and ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ are explicit termwise series.
  • Step functions. SF+\mathsf{SF}_+SF+​ is represented by its data (breakpoints and values). γ\gammaγ is extended by 000 outside [0,1)[0,1)[0,1); its value at t=1t=1t=1 never matters.
  • Cole–Hopf. Φγ\Phi_\gammaΦγ​ is defined by the recursion. When γi=0\gamma_i=0γi​=0, the recursion uses its limit, the heat semigroup, instead of dividing by zero. Expectations over GGG are integrals against gaussianReal 0 1.
  • Derivatives. Space derivatives are deriv/iteratedDeriv. Time derivatives are right derivatives, because γ\gammaγ jumps.
  • Legendre transform. Φγ∗\Phi^*_\gammaΦγ∗​ is a real infimum, used only for ∣z∣<1|z|<1∣z∣<1, where it is bounded below.
  • Brownian motion and filtration. BBB is a Mathlib IsBrownianReal process on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, with each BrB_rBr​ measurable. The filtration is Fst=σ(Br:t≤r≤s)\mathcal F^t_s=\sigma(B_r:t\le r\le s)Fst​=σ(Br​:t≤r≤s).
  • Stochastic integral. It is the L2L^2L2 Itô integral of the published definition Peng1990.SMP.IsItoIntegral (horizon 111), whose integrability class is exactly E∫ξ′′u2<∞\mathbb E\int\xi''u^2<\inftyE∫ξ′′u2<∞.
  • Supremum. Jγ(t,z)=v\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=vJγ​(t,z)=v is stated as "vvv is the least upper bound of the objective values of admissible controls" (IsLUB), never as a real sSup. A default value of an empty or unbounded supremum therefore cannot make a statement trivially true.
  • Disclosed hypothesis. Lemma 7.2, the envelope identities and Lemma 7.3 assume that ξ\xiξ is not identically zero (some ck≠0c_k\neq0ck​=0). For ξ≡0\xi\equiv0ξ≡0 one has Φγ(t,x)=∣x∣\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=|x|Φγ​(t,x)=∣x∣ for all ttt, and these statements fail. Proposition 7.1, the evaluation at the origin and the goal need no such hypothesis.
  • Lemma 7.3. The statement includes the inequality ν+∂z2V<0\nu+\partial_z^2V<0ν+∂z2​V<0, which the page proves. This rules out reading the HJB supremum as a default value.

The paper's algorithmic results (Theorems 2–4, Corollary 2.2) are out of scope. They need the AMP and state-evolution machinery of Section 5 and Appendix A, and an informal model of computation. The optional bound (4.4) is not stated.

Welcome contributions include the regularity of Cole–Hopf solutions (Gaussian convolution, log-moment-generating functions), a general verification theorem for one-dimensional controlled martingales with a terminal state constraint, and Itô's formula for C1,2C^{1,2}C1,2 functions.

Selected references

  • A. El Alaoui, A. Montanari, M. Sellke, Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses, arXiv:2001.00904v1, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.00904
  • A. Auffinger, W.-K. Chen, Parisi formula for the ground state energy in the mixed p-spin model, Ann. Probab. 45(6b), 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05335
  • A. Jagannath, I. Tobasco, A dynamic programming approach to the Parisi functional, Proc. AMS 144, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.04398
  • N. Touzi, Optimal Stochastic Control, Stochastic Target Problems, and Backward SDE, Fields Institute Monographs 29, Springer, 2012 (cited as [Tou12] in the paper; the verification argument of Section 7 follows its Theorem 4.1).
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Mathematical PhysicsOptimizationPartial Differential Equations+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses II: Under No Overlap Gap, the Monotone Parisi Minimizer Also Minimizes the Extended FunctionalResearch Paper

Motivation

The mixed ppp-spin model is a random polynomial on the hypercube {−1,+1}N\{-1,+1\}^N{−1,+1}N: a centered Gaussian process HN(σ)H_N(\boldsymbol\sigma)HN​(σ) with covariance E{HN(σ)HN(σ′)}=Nξ(⟨σ,σ′⟩/N)\mathbb E\{H_N(\boldsymbol\sigma)H_N(\boldsymbol\sigma')\} = N\xi(\langle\boldsymbol\sigma,\boldsymbol\sigma'\rangle/N)E{HN​(σ)HN​(σ′)}=Nξ(⟨σ,σ′⟩/N). Its maximum OPTN=max⁡σHN(σ)/N\mathrm{OPT}_N = \max_{\boldsymbol\sigma} H_N(\boldsymbol\sigma)/NOPTN​=maxσ​HN​(σ)/N is a canonical random optimization problem; for ξ(t)=c22t2\xi(t) = c_2^2t^2ξ(t)=c22​t2 it is the ground state of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model. Auffinger and Chen (AC17) proved that OPTN\mathrm{OPT}_NOPTN​ converges almost surely to the infimum of the zero-temperature Parisi functional P\mathsf PP over a space U\mathscr UU of non-decreasing order parameters.

El Alaoui, Montanari and Sellke (arXiv:2001.00904v1) characterize what a class of message-passing algorithms achieves on this problem. The answer is the infimum of the same functional over a larger space L\mathscr LL of order parameters that need not be monotone. Whether these algorithms reach the true optimum is therefore the question whether inf⁡UP=inf⁡LP\inf_{\mathscr U}\mathsf P = \inf_{\mathscr L}\mathsf PinfU​P=infL​P. The paper proves this equality under the no-overlap gap assumption, that the Parisi minimizer over U\mathscr UU can be taken strictly increasing (Assumption 2, p. 8). This is believed to hold for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model and to fail for pure ppp-spin models with p≥3p \ge 3p≥3. This mission formalizes that equality, stated as a property of the minimizer.

Timeline. Parisi's formula (1979) was proved by Talagrand (2006) and Panchenko (2013). Auffinger and Chen (2017) gave its zero-temperature form (1.7). Jagannath and Tobasco (JT16) gave a PDE and variational treatment of the Parisi functional at positive temperature, including its convexity. Montanari (Mon19) gave a message-passing algorithm for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model under no overlap gap. El Alaoui, Montanari and Sellke (2020) extended it to mixed ppp-spin models and introduced the extended principle over L\mathscr LL.

Setting

A mixture is ξ(t)=∑k≥2ck2tk\xi(t) = \sum_{k\ge2} c_k^2 t^kξ(t)=∑k≥2​ck2​tk with ξ(1+ε)<∞\xi(1+\varepsilon) < \inftyξ(1+ε)<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0, with derivatives ξ′\xi'ξ′ and ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ given by the termwise series. Order parameters are functions γ:[0,1)→R≥0\gamma : [0,1) \to \mathbb R_{\ge0}γ:[0,1)→R≥0​, in one of two spaces:

U={γ non-decreasing, ∫01γ(t) dt<∞},L={∥ξ′′γ∥TV[0,t]<∞ ∀t<1, ∫01ξ′′(t)γ(t) dt<∞}.\mathscr U = \Big\{\gamma \text{ non-decreasing},\ \int_0^1\gamma(t)\,dt < \infty\Big\},\qquad \mathscr L = \Big\{\|\xi''\gamma\|_{TV[0,t]} < \infty\ \forall t<1,\ \int_0^1\xi''(t)\gamma(t)\,dt < \infty\Big\}.U={γ non-decreasing, ∫01​γ(t)dt<∞},L={∥ξ′′γ∥TV[0,t]​<∞ ∀t<1, ∫01​ξ′′(t)γ(t)dt<∞}.

Here ∥⋅∥TV[0,t]\|\cdot\|_{TV[0,t]}∥⋅∥TV[0,t]​ is total variation on [0,t][0,t][0,t], and U⊆L\mathscr U \subseteq \mathscr LU⊆L.

For a step function γ=∑iγiI[ti−1,ti)\gamma = \sum_i \gamma_i \mathbb I_{[t_{i-1},t_i)}γ=∑i​γi​I[ti−1​,ti​)​ with γi≥0\gamma_i \ge 0γi​≥0 (the space SF+\mathrm{SF}_+SF+​), the Parisi PDE

∂tΦ+12ξ′′(t)(∂x2Φ+γ(t)(∂xΦ)2)=0,Φ(1,x)=∣x∣,\partial_t\Phi + \tfrac12\xi''(t)\big(\partial_x^2\Phi + \gamma(t)(\partial_x\Phi)^2\big) = 0,\qquad \Phi(1,x) = |x|,∂t​Φ+21​ξ′′(t)(∂x2​Φ+γ(t)(∂x​Φ)2)=0,Φ(1,x)=∣x∣,

is solved explicitly by the Cole–Hopf recursion (7.3). It is a Gaussian log-moment-generating step on each piece, and a heat-semigroup step where γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0. For general γ∈L\gamma \in \mathscr Lγ∈L, Φγ\Phi^\gammaΦγ is the limit of Φγn\Phi^{\gamma_n}Φγn​ along step functions γn→γ\gamma_n \to \gammaγn​→γ in the weighted norm ∫01ξ′′∣γn−γ∣\int_0^1\xi''|\gamma_n - \gamma|∫01​ξ′′∣γn​−γ∣. The Parisi functional is

P(γ)=Φγ(0,0)−12∫01t ξ′′(t)γ(t) dt.\mathsf P(\gamma) = \Phi^\gamma(0,0) - \frac12\int_0^1 t\,\xi''(t)\gamma(t)\,dt .P(γ)=Φγ(0,0)−21​∫01​tξ′′(t)γ(t)dt.

The process XXX is the strong solution of dXt=ξ′′(t)γ(t)∂xΦγ(t,Xt) dt+ξ′′(t) dBtdX_t = \xi''(t)\gamma(t)\partial_x\Phi^\gamma(t,X_t)\,dt + \sqrt{\xi''(t)}\,dB_tdXt​=ξ′′(t)γ(t)∂x​Φγ(t,Xt​)dt+ξ′′(t)​dBt​, X0=0X_0 = 0X0​=0 (Eq. (6.3)), driven by a standard Brownian motion BBB.

Formalization targets

Goal: the monotone minimizer is a minimizer over L\mathscr LL (Section 6.3, p. 34)

If γ∗∈U\gamma_* \in \mathscr Uγ∗​∈U is strictly increasing on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) and P(γ∗)≤P(γ)\mathsf P(\gamma_*) \le \mathsf P(\gamma)P(γ∗​)≤P(γ) for every γ∈U\gamma \in \mathscr Uγ∈U, then

P(γ∗)≤P(γ)for every γ∈L.\mathsf P(\gamma_*) \le \mathsf P(\gamma)\qquad\text{for every }\gamma \in \mathscr L .P(γ∗​)≤P(γ)for every γ∈L.

Since U⊆L\mathscr U \subseteq \mathscr LU⊆L, this is the paper's main result 2 (p. 4), inf⁡UP=inf⁡LP\inf_{\mathscr U}\mathsf P = \inf_{\mathscr L}\mathsf PinfU​P=infL​P under no overlap gap.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 6.7 (p. 27): for γ∈L\gamma\in\mathscr Lγ∈L, t↦E{∂x2Φ(t,Xt)2}t\mapsto\mathbb E\{\partial_x^2\Phi(t,X_t)^2\}t↦E{∂x2​Φ(t,Xt​)2} is continuous on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1).
  2. Proposition 6.8 (p. 27): the right derivative of s↦P(γ+sδ)s\mapsto\mathsf P(\gamma+s\delta)s↦P(γ+sδ) at 000 is 12∫01ξ′′(t)δ(t)(E{∂xΦ(t,Xt)2}−t) dt\frac12\int_0^1\xi''(t)\delta(t)\big(\mathbb E\{\partial_x\Phi(t,X_t)^2\}-t\big)\,dt21​∫01​ξ′′(t)δ(t)(E{∂x​Φ(t,Xt​)2}−t)dt, for admissible directions δ\deltaδ that vanish near t=1t = 1t=1.
  3. Lemma 6.15 (p. 33): under no overlap gap, E{∂xΦγ∗(t,Xt)2}=t\mathbb E\{\partial_x\Phi^{\gamma_*}(t,X_t)^2\} = tE{∂x​Φγ∗​(t,Xt​)2}=t for every t∈[0,1)t\in[0,1)t∈[0,1).
  4. Convexity (Section 6.3, p. 34): P\mathsf PP is convex on L\mathscr LL.

Significance

The result. The goal identifies the value reached by the paper's message-passing algorithm with the ground-state energy whenever the Parisi minimizer is strictly increasing. Combined with the paper's algorithmic theorem, it yields a (1−ε)(1-\varepsilon)(1−ε)-approximation of OPTN\mathrm{OPT}_NOPTN​ in time linear in the input size, for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model and any other mixture with no overlap gap (Corollary 2.2). It also gives a structural fact about the variational problem: when the minimizer is strictly increasing, the monotonicity constraint in U\mathscr UU is not binding.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, but the proof leans on an external citation ([JT16, Theorem 20]) for convexity of P\mathsf PP on L\mathscr LL. It also applies the first-variation formula in a direction that does not meet that formula's stated hypotheses. A machine-checked development closes both gaps. No part of this theory (the Parisi PDE, its Cole–Hopf solution, or the extended functional) has been formalized before, to our knowledge.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is: convexity plus stationarity gives a global minimum. Both inputs are hard. Stationarity (Lemma 6.15) needs the first variation of P\mathsf PP in directions that keep γ∗+sδ\gamma_*+s\deltaγ∗​+sδ monotone. That variation is a derivative of the solution of a nonlinear PDE with respect to its coefficient, expressed through an SDE driven by that solution's own gradient. Convexity of P\mathsf PP on L\mathscr LL is not visible from the formula: Φγ(0,0)\Phi^\gamma(0,0)Φγ(0,0) is defined through a limit of nested Cole–Hopf recursions, and the paper does not prove it, citing a positive-temperature argument instead. Finally, the goal needs the first variation in the direction γ−γ∗\gamma - \gamma_*γ−γ∗​, which is generally non-zero near t=1t = 1t=1, where ξ′′γ\xi''\gammaξ′′γ may blow up. Proposition 6.8 as stated excludes such directions.

Formalization scope

  • Mixture. A coefficient sequence c : ℕ → ℝ with c0=c1=0c_0 = c_1 = 0c0​=c1​=0 and ∑kck2(1+ε)k<∞\sum_k c_k^2(1+\varepsilon)^k < \infty∑k​ck2​(1+ε)k<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. ξ′\xi'ξ′ and ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ are explicit power series.
  • Order parameters. Functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; membership in U\mathscr UU and L\mathscr LL reads only [0,1)[0,1)[0,1). Total variation is eVariationOn; finiteness of integrals is IntegrableOn (which includes measurability).
  • Cole–Hopf. Step-function data (m,t,a)(m,t,a)(m,t,a) with m≥1m\ge1m≥1. The γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0 pieces use the heat semigroup, the limit of (7.3). The terminal condition is ∣x∣|x|∣x∣. Gaussian expectations are integrals against gaussianReal 0 1.
  • Φγ\Phi^\gammaΦγ on L\mathscr LL. limUnder of the Cole–Hopf values along step-function data converging to γ\gammaγ in the weighted L1L^1L1 distance. ∂x\partial_x∂x​ is deriv in xxx.
  • SDE. The published definition EthierKurtz.SolvesBrownianSDE in dimension one, with coefficients extended by 000 after time 111. Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal, and expectations are Bochner integrals.
  • Minimality. Always attainment, P(γ∗)≤P(γ)\mathsf P(\gamma_*)\le\mathsf P(\gamma)P(γ∗​)≤P(γ) for all γ\gammaγ in the space, never a real infimum (which Lean sets to 000 on unbounded sets).
  • Disclosed hypothesis. Lemma 6.15 assumes that some ck≠0c_k \ne 0ck​=0. For ξ≡0\xi\equiv0ξ≡0 it is false: P≡0\mathsf P\equiv0P≡0, X≡0X\equiv0X≡0, and the left side is constant in ttt. The goal does not need it.
  • Ruled out. A formalization that defines Φγ\Phi^\gammaΦγ as an arbitrary weak solution of the PDE, or via a choice from an unproved existence statement, would make P\mathsf PP unconstrained. It is not acceptable. Encoding the hypothesis on γ∗\gamma_*γ∗​ as minimality over L\mathscr LL would make the goal trivial.
  • Proof gaps in the source. Convexity of P\mathsf PP on L\mathscr LL is cited, not proved. The step from stationarity to the goal applies Proposition 6.8 outside its stated hypotheses. The statements are the paper's and are believed true.
  • Out of scope. The paper's algorithmic results (Theorems 2–4, Corollary 2.2) assert algorithms with complexity bounds in an informal computation model, and rest on a long state-evolution analysis. They are not part of this mission.

Contributions welcome: Cole–Hopf regularity (smoothness and the bound ∣∂xΦ∣≤1|\partial_x\Phi|\le1∣∂x​Φ∣≤1), the Lipschitz estimate in γ\gammaγ that makes Φγ\Phi^\gammaΦγ well defined, well-posedness of the SDE, and Itô calculus for the first variation. The Cole–Hopf layer and the SDE well-posedness are reusable for the companion missions on the full-support theorem and the stochastic-control duality of the same paper.

Selected references

  • A. El Alaoui, A. Montanari, M. Sellke, Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses, arXiv:2001.00904v1, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.00904v1
  • A. Auffinger, W.-K. Chen, Parisi formula for the ground state energy in the mixed p-spin model, Ann. Probab. 45(6b), 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05335
  • A. Jagannath, I. Tobasco, A dynamic programming approach to the Parisi functional, Proc. AMS 144(7), 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.04398
  • A. Montanari, Optimization of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick Hamiltonian, FOCS 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.10897
  • M. Talagrand, The Parisi formula, Ann. Math. 163(1), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4007/annals.2006.163.221
  • D. Panchenko, The Parisi ultrametricity conjecture, Ann. Math. 177(1), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1112.1003
11 thms1 active userReviewed
ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Convergence in law of the minimum of a branching random walk: The Minimum Centred at (3/2) ln n Converges to a Gumbel Law Shifted by the Derivative MartingaleResearch Paper

Motivation

A branching random walk is the simplest model of a population that both reproduces and moves: every particle dies and leaves a random cloud of children displaced relative to it. Its extreme particles control the speed of travelling waves in reaction–diffusion equations (the KPP/Fisher equation), the free energy of directed polymers on trees, the cover and hitting times of random walks on trees, and the maxima of log-correlated fields such as the two-dimensional Gaussian free field. The basic quantity is the position of the leftmost particle at time nnn.

Timeline.

  • 1974–1976: Hammersley, Kingman and Biggins prove the law of large numbers Mn/n→γM_n/n\to\gammaMn​/n→γ for the minimum.
  • 1978–1983: Bramson shows that for branching Brownian motion the maximum, centred at 2 t−322ln⁡t\sqrt2\,t-\frac{3}{2\sqrt2}\ln t2​t−22​3​lnt, converges in law (Bramson 1983). Lalley and Sellke (1987, Ann. Probab. 15) identify the limit as a Gumbel law randomly shifted by the limit of the derivative martingale.
  • 2004: Biggins and Kyprianou prove that the derivative martingale of a branching random walk converges to a limit that is non-trivial in the boundary case (Adv. Appl. Probab. 36).
  • 2009: Hu and Shi (arXiv:math/0702799) and Addario-Berry and Reed (Ann. Probab. 37) find the logarithmic correction: Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn is tight. Bramson and Zeitouni (2009) obtain tightness around the median under tail assumptions.
  • 2013: Aïdékon proves convergence in law of Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn for general non-lattice branching random walks, the result this mission formalizes (arXiv:1101.1810, Ann. Probab. 41 (2013)).

Setting

Let L\mathcal LL be a point process on R\mathbb RR: a random, possibly infinite, collection of points. Start one particle at 000. At time 111 it dies and leaves children at the points of L\mathcal LL; each particle of generation nnn then dies and leaves children at the points of an independent copy of L\mathcal LL, translated to its own position. Vertices of the genealogical tree T\mathbb TT (a Galton–Watson tree) are labelled by finite words u=(i0,…,ik−1)u=(i_0,\dots,i_{k-1})u=(i0​,…,ik−1​); ∣u∣=k|u|=k∣u∣=k is the generation, uju_juj​ the ancestor at generation jjj, and V(u)V(u)V(u) the position.

The paper works in the boundary case

E[∑∣x∣=11]>1,E[∑∣x∣=1e−V(x)]=1,E[∑∣x∣=1V(x)e−V(x)]=0,(1.1)\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}1\Big]>1,\qquad \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}e^{-V(x)}\Big]=1,\qquad \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)e^{-V(x)}\Big]=0,\tag{1.1}E[∣x∣=1∑​1]>1,E[∣x∣=1∑​e−V(x)]=1,E[∣x∣=1∑​V(x)e−V(x)]=0,(1.1)

and assumes throughout that L\mathcal LL is non-lattice and that

E[∑∣x∣=1V(x)2e−V(x)]<∞,E[X(ln⁡+X)2]<∞,E[X~ln⁡+X~]<∞,(1.3–1.4)\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)^2e^{-V(x)}\Big]<\infty,\qquad \mathbf E\big[X(\ln_+X)^2\big]<\infty,\qquad \mathbf E\big[\tilde X\ln_+\tilde X\big]<\infty,\tag{1.3–1.4}E[∣x∣=1∑​V(x)2e−V(x)]<∞,E[X(ln+​X)2]<∞,E[X~ln+​X~]<∞,(1.3–1.4)

with X=∑∣x∣=1e−V(x)X=\sum_{|x|=1}e^{-V(x)}X=∑∣x∣=1​e−V(x) and X~=∑∣x∣=1V(x)+e−V(x)\tilde X=\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)_+e^{-V(x)}X~=∑∣x∣=1​V(x)+​e−V(x). The objects of the main theorem are the minimum Mn=min⁡{V(x):∣x∣=n}M_n=\min\{V(x):|x|=n\}Mn​=min{V(x):∣x∣=n} (with min⁡∅=+∞\min\varnothing=+\inftymin∅=+∞) and the derivative martingale

Dn=∑∣x∣=nV(x)e−V(x),D_n=\sum_{|x|=n}V(x)e^{-V(x)},Dn​=∣x∣=n∑​V(x)e−V(x),

which converges almost surely to a limit D∞≥0D_\infty\ge0D∞​≥0, strictly positive on non-extinction. A standard example: two children with i.i.d. normal displacements of mean and variance 2ln⁡22\ln22ln2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

There is a constant C∗∈(0,∞)C^*\in(0,\infty)C∗∈(0,∞) such that for every real xxx,

lim⁡n→∞P(Mn≥32ln⁡n+x)=E[e−C∗exD∞].\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbf P\Big(M_n\ge\tfrac32\ln n+x\Big)=\mathbf E\Big[e^{-C^*e^xD_\infty}\Big].n→∞lim​P(Mn​≥23​lnn+x)=E[e−C∗exD∞​].

The constant is not specified numerically. It is the product C1c0C_1c_0C1​c0​ of the constants below.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Many-to-one lemma (2.1): Ea[∑∣x∣=ng(V(x1),…,V(xn))]=Ea[eSn−ag(S1,…,Sn)]\mathbf E_a[\sum_{|x|=n}g(V(x_1),\dots,V(x_n))]=\mathbf E_a[e^{S_n-a}g(S_1,\dots,S_n)]Ea​[∑∣x∣=n​g(V(x1​),…,V(xn​))]=Ea​[eSn​−ag(S1​,…,Sn​)] for a centred random walk SSS.
  2. Renewal function (2.13): the renewal function RRR of the strict descending ladder heights of SSS satisfies R(x)/x→c0>0R(x)/x\to c_0>0R(x)/x→c0​>0.
  3. Corollary 3.2 and Proposition 1.2: for the walk killed below 000, ez P(Mnkill<32ln⁡n−z)→C1e^z\,\mathbf P(M_n^{\rm kill}<\frac32\ln n-z)\to C_1ezP(Mnkill​<23​lnn−z)→C1​, uniformly for z∈[A,32ln⁡n−A]z\in[A,\frac32\ln n-A]z∈[A,23​lnn−A].
  4. Global minimum bound: P(∃u∈T:V(u)≤−y)≤e−y\mathbf P(\exists u\in\mathbb T: V(u)\le-y)\le e^{-y}P(∃u∈T:V(u)≤−y)≤e−y.
  5. Corollary 3.5: P(Mn≤32ln⁡n−y)≤(1+c10(1+y))e−y\mathbf P(M_n\le\frac32\ln n-y)\le(1+c_{10}(1+y))e^{-y}P(Mn​≤23​lnn−y)≤(1+c10​(1+y))e−y.
  6. Proposition 4.1: ezzP(Mn<32ln⁡n−z)→C1c0\frac{e^z}{z}\mathbf P(M_n<\frac32\ln n-z)\to C_1c_0zez​P(Mn​<23​lnn−z)→C1​c0​, uniformly on the same window.
  7. Derivative martingale: Dn→D∞D_n\to D_\inftyDn​→D∞​ a.s., D∞≥0D_\infty\ge0D∞​≥0, D∞>0D_\infty>0D∞​>0 a.s. on non-extinction.
  8. (5.2): ∑u∈Z[A]V(u)e−V(u)→D∞\sum_{u\in\mathcal Z[A]}V(u)e^{-V(u)}\to D_\infty∑u∈Z[A]​V(u)e−V(u)→D∞​ a.s. as A→∞A\to\inftyA→∞, where Z[A]\mathcal Z[A]Z[A] is the set of particles absorbed at level AAA.

Significance

The theorem identifies the limit law of the extreme particle: Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn converges in law, on the event of survival, to a Gumbel variable shifted by −ln⁡(C∗D∞)-\ln(C^*D_\infty)−ln(C∗D∞​). It is the input for the study of the whole extremal process of the branching random walk seen from its leftmost particle (Madaule, J. Theoret. Probab., 2017), and it is the discrete-time counterpart of the Bramson and Lalley–Sellke results that later work on log-correlated fields takes as its template. The 32\frac3223​ correction and the role of the derivative martingale are the signature of the boundary case, and of log-correlated extremes generally.

The result is proved and published. It has not been formalized: Mathlib has no branching processes, no Galton–Watson trees with positions, no renewal theory, and no derivative martingale. This mission produces the first machine-checkable statement of the convergence-in-law theorem and of the intermediate results it rests on. A complete development would also give reusable formal versions of the many-to-one lemma and of renewal theory for ladder heights.

Difficulty

The first-moment computation through the many-to-one lemma gives the wrong centring. It predicts that the minimum sits near 12ln⁡n\frac12\ln n21​lnn, because the expected number of particles below a level is dominated by rare realisations. The true centring 32ln⁡n\frac32\ln n23​lnn only appears after restricting to particles whose ancestral path stays above a barrier, and this restriction requires random-walk estimates (ballot theorems and local limit theorems for walks conditioned to stay positive) that hold uniformly in a window of starting points. A second difficulty is that the limit must be identified, not only shown to exist. Tightness and subsequence arguments do not give the factor D∞D_\inftyD∞​; the identification needs the precise tail C1c0 z e−zC_1c_0\,z\,e^{-z}C1​c0​ze−z of Proposition 4.1, with a known constant, and the almost-sure behaviour of the sum over the stopping line Z[A]\mathcal Z[A]Z[A].

Formalization scope

  • Point process. The law LLL of L\mathcal LL is a probability measure on configurations (N,p)∈N∞×(N→R)(N,p)\in\mathbb N_\infty\times(\mathbb N\to\mathbb R)(N,p)∈N∞​×(N→R), where the points are pip_ipi​ for i<Ni<Ni<N.
  • Tree. Labels are List ℕ. The branching random walk is any family (ξu)u(\xi_u)_{u}(ξu​)u​ of independent measurable configurations of law LLL on a probability space. Every theorem holds for every such realisation, and a canonical realisation exists (product space).
  • Assumptions. Every expectation in (1.1), (1.3), (1.4) is a lower Lebesgue integral of a [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued sum. The signed condition in (1.1) is "the expectations of ∑V+e−V\sum V_+e^{-V}∑V+​e−V and ∑V−e−V\sum V_-e^{-V}∑V−​e−V are equal and finite". Non-lattice means: there are no a∈Ra\in\mathbb Ra∈R and d>0d>0d>0 with all points a.s. in a+dZa+d\mathbb Za+dZ.
  • Which assumptions where. The goal and §§3–5 assume all of them. The many-to-one lemma and the global minimum bound assume only (1.1), and the derivative-martingale milestone drops non-lattice, as in Appendix A.
  • Minima and limits. MnM_nMn​ and MnkillM_n^{\rm kill}Mnkill​ are extended reals, +∞+\infty+∞ on an empty generation, so extinction lies in {Mn≥32ln⁡n+x}\{M_n\ge\frac32\ln n+x\}{Mn​≥23​lnn+x}. DnD_nDn​ is a real sum over generation nnn, absolutely summable almost surely, and D∞D_\inftyD∞​ is its pointwise limit. The expectation in the goal is a lower integral of e−C∗exD∞∈(0,1]e^{-C^*e^xD_\infty}\in(0,1]e−C∗exD∞​∈(0,1].
  • Constants. C∗C^*C∗ is chosen before xxx. In Proposition 4.1, C1C_1C1​ and c0c_0c0​ are hypotheses tied to Proposition 1.2 and (2.13), not re-chosen. Corollaries 3.2 and 3.5 assert existence of their constants without Proposition 3.1 and Corollary 3.4.
  • Not trivial. A formalization with a real-valued MnM_nMn​ equal to 000 on extinction, a D∞D_\inftyD∞​ never shown to be the limit, or a C∗C^*C∗ depending on xxx would not be this theorem. The definitions above rule out each of these.

Out of scope: the spine-measure lemmas (Lemmas 2.3, 3.3, 3.8–3.10, 4.3), Propositions 2.1–2.2 cited from Lyons, and Appendices B–C. Contributions are welcome on all milestones. The many-to-one lemma and the renewal statement are independent of the rest and are natural first targets.

Selected references

  • E. Aïdékon, Convergence in law of the minimum of a branching random walk, Ann. Probab. 41(3A) (2013) 1362–1426. arXiv:1101.1810, doi:10.1214/12-AOP750
  • J. D. Biggins, A. E. Kyprianou, Measure change in multitype branching, Adv. Appl. Probab. 36 (2004) 544–581. Reference [7] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 68
  • M. Bramson, Convergence of solutions of the Kolmogorov equation to travelling waves, Mem. Amer. Math. Soc. 44, no. 285 (1983). doi:10.1090/memo/0285
  • S. P. Lalley, T. Sellke, A conditional limit theorem for the frontier of a branching Brownian motion, Ann. Probab. 15 (1987) 1052–1061. Reference [21] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 69
  • Y. Hu, Z. Shi, Minimal position and critical martingale convergence in branching random walks, and directed polymers on disordered trees, Ann. Probab. 37 (2009) 742–789. arXiv:math/0702799
  • L. Addario-Berry, B. Reed, Minima in branching random walks, Ann. Probab. 37 (2009) 1044–1079. Reference [1] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 68
  • R. Lyons, A simple path to Biggins' martingale convergence for branching random walk, in Classical and Modern Branching Processes, IMA Vol. Math. Appl. 84 (1997) 217–221. Reference [22] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 69
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