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The OR Formalization Drive

Help us formalize the operations research literature in Lean.

1094 missions

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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning V: Nonconvex Stochastic Mirror DescentTextbook

Motivation

Most machine learning training objectives — deep network losses, matrix factorization, regularized empirical risk with a nonconvex loss — are not convex, yet the great majority of convergence theory available before Ghadimi and Lan's 2013 work applied only to convex problems or gave no non-asymptotic rate at all. Ghadimi and Lan (2013) established the first non-asymptotic complexity bounds for stochastic first-order methods on smooth nonconvex problems, using the norm of a gradient mapping (rather than function-value suboptimality, which is meaningless without convexity) as the convergence measure, together with a randomized stopping rule that removes the need to know in advance which iterate will be best. This mission formalizes the constrained, composite generalization of that theory — Lan's own extension (2020) to problems with a nonsmooth term hhh and a general Bregman geometry rather than the Euclidean norm — culminating in the stochastic complexity bound for the randomized stochastic mirror descent (RSMD) algorithm.

Setting

Fix a nonempty closed convex X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb{R}^nX⊆Rn, a continuously differentiable (possibly nonconvex) f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb{R}f:X→R with LLL-Lipschitz gradient, and a simple convex (possibly nonsmooth) h:X→Rh:X\to\mathbb{R}h:X→R (e.g. h=∥⋅∥1h=\|\cdot\|_1h=∥⋅∥1​ or h≡0h\equiv0h≡0); write Ψ:=f+h\Psi:=f+hΨ:=f+h, Ψ∗:=min⁡x∈XΨ(x)\Psi^*:=\min_{x\in X}\Psi(x)Ψ∗:=minx∈X​Ψ(x) (assumed finite). For a distance-generating function ν\nuν with modulus 1 and its prox-function V(z,x):=ν(x)−ν(z)−⟨∇ν(z),x−z⟩V(z,x):=\nu(x)-\nu(z)-\langle\nabla\nu(z),x-z\rangleV(z,x):=ν(x)−ν(z)−⟨∇ν(z),x−z⟩, the generalized projection at xxx with gradient-like input ggg and stepsize γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 is

x+:=arg⁡min⁡u∈X{⟨g,u⟩+1γV(x,u)+h(u)},PX(x,g,γ):=1γ(x−x+),x^+ := \arg\min_{u\in X}\Big\{\langle g,u\rangle + \tfrac1\gamma V(x,u) + h(u)\Big\}, \qquad P_X(x,g,\gamma) := \tfrac1\gamma(x-x^+),x+:=argu∈Xmin​{⟨g,u⟩+γ1​V(x,u)+h(u)},PX​(x,g,γ):=γ1​(x−x+),

which reduces to ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) itself when X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn and h≡0h\equiv0h≡0: PXP_XPX​ is a generalized projected gradient (or gradient mapping) of Ψ\PsiΨ at xxx, and its norm going to zero is the right notion of "approximately stationary" for the composite, possibly-nonconvex problem min⁡x∈XΨ(x)\min_{x\in X}\Psi(x)minx∈X​Ψ(x).

The randomized stochastic mirror descent (RSMD) algorithm, given only a stochastic first-order oracle returning G(x,ξ)G(x,\xi)G(x,ξ) with E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x)\mathbb{E}[G(x,\xi)]=\nabla f(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x) and E[∥G(x,ξ)−∇f(x)∥2]≤σ2\mathbb{E}[\|G(x,\xi)- \nabla f(x)\|^2]\le\sigma^2E[∥G(x,ξ)−∇f(x)∥2]≤σ2 (Assumption 13), forms a mini-batch average GkG_kGk​ of mkm_kmk​ oracle calls at each step kkk, updates xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ via the generalized projection with g=Gkg=G_kg=Gk​, and stops at a randomly chosen index RRR (drawn from a prescribed pmf PRP_RPR​, independently of the optimization process) rather than a deterministic final iterate.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 6.6(a), RSMD complexity

E[∥g~X,R∥2]≤LDΨ2+σ2∑k=1N(γk/mk)∑k=1N(γk−Lγk2),g~X,k:=PX(xk,Gk,γk),\mathbb{E}\big[\|\tilde g_{X,R}\|^2\big] \le \frac{LD_\Psi^2 + \sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k/ m_k)}{\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k-L\gamma_k^2)}, \qquad \tilde g_{X,k}:=P_X(x_k,G_k,\gamma_k),E[∥g~​X,R​∥2]≤∑k=1N​(γk​−Lγk2​)LDΨ2​+σ2∑k=1N​(γk​/mk​)​,g~​X,k​:=PX​(xk​,Gk​,γk​),

for 0<γk≤1/L0<\gamma_k\le1/L0<γk​≤1/L (strict for at least one kkk) and PRP_RPR​ chosen as in (6.2.30), the expectation over both RRR and the oracle randomness ξ[N]\xi_{[N]}ξ[N]​.

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 6.4: ⟨g,PX(x,g,γ)⟩≥∥PX(x,g,γ)∥2+1γ[h(x+)−h(x)]\langle g,P_X(x,g,\gamma)\rangle \ge \|P_X(x,g,\gamma)\|^2 + \tfrac1\gamma[h(x^+) -h(x)]⟨g,PX​(x,g,γ)⟩≥∥PX​(x,g,γ)∥2+γ1​[h(x+)−h(x)] — the bound that lets a smoothness inequality on fff become a descent inequality on the whole composite Ψ\PsiΨ.
  • Lemma 6.6: the three-point characterization of x+x^+x+, the composite-problem analogue of Chapter 3's Lemma 3.4.
  • Theorem 6.5 (deterministic ancestor): ∥gX,R∥2≤LDΨ2/∑k=1N(γk−Lγk2/2)\|g_{X,R}\|^2 \le LD_\Psi^2/\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k- L\gamma_k^2/2)∥gX,R​∥2≤LDΨ2​/∑k=1N​(γk​−Lγk2​/2) for the exact-gradient nonconvex MD algorithm.
  • Corollary 6.4: the constant-stepsize instantiation ∥gX,R∥2≤2L2DΨ2/N\|g_{X,R}\|^2\le2L^2D_\Psi^2/N∥gX,R​∥2≤2L2DΨ2​/N.

Every result states its constants exactly as the book derives them; no milestone or the goal hides a rate behind an unspecified O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅).

Significance

The goal theorem gives the complexity of the RSMD algorithm in terms of a squared generalized gradient-mapping norm — the correct convergence criterion for constrained, composite, possibly nonconvex stochastic optimization, since function-value suboptimality is not controllable without convexity and unconstrained gradient norms are meaningless once X≠RnX\ne\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn or hhh is nonsmooth. Choosing mkm_kmk​ and NNN appropriately (a corollary this mission does not formalize) turns this bound into the celebrated O(σ2/ε2)O(\sigma^2/\varepsilon^2)O(σ2/ε2) total-oracle-call complexity for finding an ε\varepsilonε-stationary point in expectation — the standard benchmark every later stochastic nonconvex method (variance-reduced SGD, SPIDER, and their composite/constrained variants) is compared against.

No result in this mission has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me under this exact hypothesis set. The two closest platform results, both from lean-optrates (Shi), are genuinely different objects: ShiOptRates.gd_exact_rate is plain, unconstrained, deterministic gradient descent (xk+1=xk−L−1g(xk)x_{k+1}=x_k-L^{-1}g(x_k)xk+1​=xk​−L−1g(xk​), no set XXX, no composite hhh, no generalized projection), and ShiOptRates.Stochastic.sgd_rate is plain SGD under the same unconstrained, non-composite setup — its filtration/conditional-expectation formalization pattern (a Filtration ℕ, μ[·|ℱ k] for the unbiasedness and variance-bound hypotheses) is the same one this mission's goal theorem uses, confirming it as the platform's established idiom for this class of result, but the mathematical content (plain gradient step vs. generalized-projection/mirror-descent step, no XXX or hhh) is different. Neither is reused; both are noted as the platform's nearest existing work.

Difficulty

The generalized projection x+x^+x+ replaces the Euclidean projection with an arbitrary Bregman-based prox-mapping and absorbs the nonsmooth term hhh directly into the subproblem — a formalization that quietly assumes h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 or X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn would collapse every milestone here into the ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) special case and prove nothing about the constrained composite problem the chapter is actually about. The harder difficulty is in the goal theorem's own randomness: the book's proof does not use an unconditional (marginal) form of Assumption 13, because from step 2 onward xkx_kxk​ is itself a random variable (a function of the history ξ[k−1]\xi_{[k-1]}ξ[k−1]​), so the cross-term E[⟨δk,gX,k⟩]\mathbb{E}[\langle\delta_k,g_{X,k}\rangle]E[⟨δk​,gX,k​⟩] the proof needs to vanish requires a conditional statement — "E[⟨δk,gX,k⟩∣ξ[k−1]]=0\mathbb{E}[\langle\delta_k,g_{X,k}\rangle\mid\xi_{[k-1]}]=0E[⟨δk​,gX,k​⟩∣ξ[k−1]​]=0" is the book's own phrasing. A formalization using only marginal moment bounds would either be unprovable as stated or, worse, would misstate the theorem by using hypotheses too weak for the claimed conclusion.

Formalization scope

generalized_projection_gradient_bound, generalized_projection_characterization, nonconvex_md_bound and nonconvex_md_rate are stated over a real inner product space (Chapter 6's own generality — unlike Chapter 3, §6.2.3 explicitly restricts to "the norm associated with the inner product"), with every argmin-defined point (x+x^+x+, and the iterate sequence xkx_kxk​) represented by its pointwise minimality property rather than an argmin term, consistent with this series' convention. The goal theorem, rsmd_complexity_bound, additionally introduces a probability space (Ω,P) and a Mathlib Filtration ℕ 𝒢, with x k/G k required 𝒢(k-1)-strongly-measurable and Assumption 13 stated via MeasureTheory.condExp (𝒢 (k-1)) (conditional mean 0, conditional second moment ≤ σ²/m_k) — the conditional form the book's own proof actually needs, not a weaker marginal substitute. The σ²/m_k bound is (6.2.40)'s conclusion for the m_k-sample batch average, taken as a hypothesis on the already-averaged G k directly rather than re-derived from m_k raw i.i.d. calls (that derivation is not itself a numbered result of the book). RRR's independence from the process is stated via ProbabilityTheory.IndepFun; every integrability side condition the conclusion's Bochner integral needs to be non-vacuous is stated explicitly, guarding against the well-known trap of an uninhabited/non-integrable hypothesis silently defaulting condExp/the integral to 0 and making the theorem trivially true.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: taking X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn and h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 throughout would make every generalized projection collapse to the ordinary gradient, reducing this entire mission to a restatement of plain (stochastic) gradient descent — exactly the ShiOptRates results already on the platform — rather than the constrained composite theory the chapter develops; XXX, hhh and VVV are kept as genuine free parameters in every milestone and the goal.

Left out of scope, for time: Theorem 6.6(b) (the convex-case corollary on E[Ψ(xR)−Ψ(x∗)]\mathbb{E}[\Psi (x_R)-\Psi(x^*)]E[Ψ(xR​)−Ψ(x∗)], requiring the nondecreasing/nonincreasing stepsize side-conditions of (6.2.33)/(6.2.35)); the raw-sample derivation of (6.2.40); Lemma 6.3 (the stationarity consequence of a small gradient mapping, using ∂h\partial h∂h and the normal cone NXN_XNX​); the 2-RSMD algorithm and its large-deviation improvement; and the gradient-free (RSMDF) variant.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, §6.2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • S. Ghadimi and G. Lan, "Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming," SIAM Journal on Optimization, 23(4), 2013, pp. 2341–2368.
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan and H. Zhang, "Mini-batch Stochastic Approximation Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Composite Optimization," Mathematical Programming, 155(1–2), 2016, pp. 267–305 (the RSMD algorithm's original source).
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning VI: The Classic Conditional Gradient MethodTextbook

Motivation

Every method in Chapters 2-4 of this series solves a projection or proximal subproblem at every step — a Euclidean projection, or a Bregman-divergence prox-mapping — which can itself be as hard as the original problem when XXX is a complicated feasible set (a spectrahedron, a flow polytope, a matroid base polytope). The conditional gradient method (Frank & Wolfe, 1956) sidesteps this entirely: instead of a projection, each step calls a linear optimization (LO) oracle — minimize a linear function over XXX — which is frequently far cheaper (over a spectrahedron, this reduces to a single eigenvector computation; over many combinatorial polytopes, to a greedy algorithm). This is the origin of the modern "projection-free" family of optimization methods widely used at the scale where projections are the bottleneck.

Setting

Fix a nonempty compact convex set XXX in a real normed space EEE and a convex f:X→Rf:X\to \mathbb Rf:X→R with LLL-Lipschitz gradient (Eq. (7.1.4)): ∥f′(x)−f′(y)∥∗≤L∥x−y∥\|f'(x)-f'(y)\|_*\le L\|x-y\|∥f′(x)−f′(y)∥∗​≤L∥x−y∥. The classic conditional gradient (CndG) method, Algorithm 7.1, sets x0∈Xx_0\in Xx0​∈X, y0=x0y_0=x_0y0​=x0​, and for k=1,2,…k=1,2,\dotsk=1,2,…: calls the LO oracle xk∈arg⁡min⁡z∈X⟨f′(yk−1),z⟩x_k\in\arg\min_{z\in X}\langle f'(y_{k-1}),z\ranglexk​∈argminz∈X​⟨f′(yk−1​),z⟩, then sets yk=(1−αk)yk−1+αkxky_k=(1-\alpha_k)y_{k-1}+\alpha_kx_kyk​=(1−αk​)yk−1​+αk​xk​ for a stepsize αk∈[0,1]\alpha_k\in[0,1]αk​∈[0,1], either the fixed schedule αk=2/(k+1)\alpha_k=2/(k+1)αk​=2/(k+1) (Eq. (7.1.9)) or exact line search (Eq. (7.1.10)).

Section 7.1.1.2 extends this to bilinear saddle-point problems, where fff itself is the (generally nonsmooth) function f(x)=max⁡y∈Y{⟨Ax,y⟩−f^(y)}f(x)=\max_{y\in Y}\{\langle Ax,y\rangle-\hat f(y)\}f(x)=maxy∈Y​{⟨Ax,y⟩−f^​(y)} (Eq. (7.1.5)) for a compact convex YYY and linear operator AAA. Since fff is nonsmooth, the method is applied instead to a family of smooth approximations fηf_\etafη​ built from a strongly convex ω\omegaω on YYY (Eq. (7.1.21)-(7.1.23)), with the smoothing parameter ηk\eta_kηk​ allowed to vary across iterations rather than being fixed in advance.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 7.1

f(yk)−f∗≤2Lk(k+1)∑i=1k∥xi−yi−1∥2.f(y_k) - f^* \le \frac{2L}{k(k+1)}\sum_{i=1}^k\|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2.f(yk​)−f∗≤k(k+1)2L​i=1∑k​∥xi​−yi−1​∥2.

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 7.1: the smoothed objective family fηf_\etafη​ is monotone nondecreasing in η≥0\eta\ge0η≥0 — the one-line fact (V(y)−DY2≤0V(y)-D_Y^2\le0V(y)−DY2​≤0 pointwise) that licenses a variable, decreasing smoothing schedule ηk\eta_kηk​ rather than a schedule fixed in advance from knowledge of the target accuracy.
  • Theorem 7.2: the saddle-point counterpart of the goal theorem, running the same CndG algorithm on the smoothed gradients fηk′f_{\eta_k}'fηk​′​ instead of f′f'f′ directly, with the explicit rate f(yk)−f∗≤2k(k+1)∑i=1k[iηiDY2+∥A∥2σvηi∥xi−yi−1∥2]f(y_k)-f^*\le\frac{2}{k(k+1)}\sum_{i=1}^k[i\eta_iD_Y^2+\frac{\|A\|^2}{\sigma_v\eta_i} \|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2]f(yk​)−f∗≤k(k+1)2​∑i=1k​[iηi​DY2​+σv​ηi​∥A∥2​∥xi​−yi−1​∥2].

Every constant here is exactly the book's; the goal theorem's bound is left in terms of the actual step distances ∑∥xi−yi−1∥2\sum\|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2∑∥xi​−yi−1​∥2, not a diameter-based simplification (see Difficulty).

Significance

This mission formalizes the founding convergence result of the entire projection-free family (Frank-Wolfe methods), which has become central to large-scale machine learning precisely because its per-iteration cost can be orders of magnitude below that of a projection-based method on structured feasible sets. Theorem 7.1's specific form — a rate depending on the realized step distances rather than a fixed diameter — is also the more informative, tighter statement (the book's own remarks show it recovers the classical diameter-based O(LDX2/ε)O(LD_X^2/\varepsilon)O(LDX2​/ε) complexity as a corollary, but also explains why the rate can be much better in practice when the iterates settle near an extreme point).

No result matching conditional gradient / Frank-Wolfe methods exists on the platform as of 2026-09-18 (q=Frank-Wolfe and q=conditional gradient both return zero hits — see Prior art in MODERATION_NOTES.md).

Difficulty

The chief formalization difficulty is representing "with the stepsize policy in (7.1.9) or (7.1.10)" faithfully without either restricting to one policy (weaker than the book's stated theorem) or introducing an awkward disjunction of two separate algorithm definitions. The book's own proof resolves this by a single observation used for both policies at once: f(yk)≤f(y~k)f(y_k)\le f(\tilde y_k)f(yk​)≤f(y~​k​) for y~k\tilde y_ky~​k​ the point the fixed schedule γk=2/(k+1)\gamma_k=2/(k+1)γk​=2/(k+1) would have produced — trivially by equality under (7.1.9), or because yky_kyk​ is chosen to minimize fff over the entire line segment under (7.1.10), of which y~k\tilde y_ky~​k​ is one point. This mission's hyk_le hypothesis states exactly this shared consequence, which is genuinely what the proof uses and genuinely covers both policies, rather than picking one arbitrarily.

A second difficulty is not collapsing ∑i=1k∥xi−yi−1∥2\sum_{i=1}^k\|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2∑i=1k​∥xi​−yi−1​∥2 into a diameter bound kDX2kD_X^2kDX2​ inside the milestone itself — the book's own remarks perform that substitution as a separate, weaker corollary (Eq. (7.1.19)) after stating Theorem 7.1 in its sharper form; folding the substitution into the goal statement itself would silently prove a different, weaker theorem.

Formalization scope

conditional_gradient_rate and saddle_point_cndg_rate state the LO oracle's exactness (x k ∈ Argmin_{z∈X}⟨fGrad(y(k-1)),z⟩) as a pointwise hypothesis rather than deriving it from IsCompact X via an existence lemma — matching the pointwise-hypothesis convention this series uses throughout for argmin-defined algorithmic steps (chunk 03-deterministic's mirror-descent updates, chunk 04-stochastic's stochastic mirror-descent update). X compact convex is still included as a hypothesis, matching the book's own standing assumption on the problem class, even though it is not itself needed to derive the stated conclusion from the other hypotheses.

smoothed_objective_monotone and saddle_point_cndg_rate realize fηf_\etafη​/fff via sSup of the image of YYY under the pointwise saddle-point objective, matching the book's own max_{y∈Y}{...} definition (Eq. (7.1.5), (7.1.23)) directly rather than introducing a separate Def_ file for a "bilinear saddle-point objective" structure — no other item in this mission reuses that definition verbatim, so per this series' convention (no shared substrate bundled into a structure unless reused), it is inlined at each use.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: stating the LO oracle via an ε\varepsilonε-approximate minimizer ((fGrad (y(k-1))) (x k) ≤ (fGrad (y(k-1))) z + ε for some ε) rather than an exact one — this is explicitly a different, weaker algorithm the book does not analyze in Theorem 7.1/7.2 (the book studies approximate LO oracles separately, later in the chapter, not selected here).

Left out of scope, for time: Theorem 7.7 (the matching lower complexity bound for LO-oracle methods, Eq. (7.1.60)) — formalizing it faithfully requires first modeling the abstract class of "LCP methods" (any algorithm restricted to LO-oracle calls) as a universally-quantified object, a substantially different and more involved formalization task than the two upper-bound convergence theorems selected here; named per Hard Rule 7 rather than approximated. The d(x)=\sum x_i\log x_i entropy-smoothing remark and the primal/primal-dual averaging CndG variants (§7.1.2, not covered by this mission's page range) are likewise not attempted.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 7, §7.1.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • M. Frank, P. Wolfe, "An algorithm for quadratic programming," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 3(1-2), 1956, pp. 95-110.
  • M. Jaggi, "Revisiting Frank-Wolfe: projection-free sparse convex optimization," ICML, 2013 (the modern machine-learning revival of the method).
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning VII: Gradient Sliding for Composite OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

Composite convex programs — objectives split into a smooth piece and a nonsmooth piece — are ubiquitous in data analysis: LASSO-type inverse problems, regularized empirical-risk minimization, and total-variation-type image reconstruction all minimize f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)f(x)+h(x)+\chi(x)f(x)+h(x)+χ(x) over a convex set, where fff is smooth (a data-fidelity term, often expensive to differentiate — a large matrix-vector product, a PDE solve, a black-box simulation), hhh is nonsmooth but structurally cheap (an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-type penalty, a simple subgradient), and χ\chiχ enforces a "relatively simple" constraint absorbed into the proximal step. Classical accelerated proximal-gradient methods (Nesterov; Beck–Teboulle) solve such problems by computing ∇f\nabla f∇f and a subgradient h′h'h′ once per iteration, giving an optimal O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2) bound on evaluations of both. But in every example above, the two oracle calls have wildly different costs, and paying for ∇f\nabla f∇f as often as for h′h'h′ is wasteful. Ghadimi, Lan and Zhang (SIAM J. Optim., 2014, arXiv:1406.5613, "Generalized Uniformly Optimal Methods for Nonlinear Programming") posed the resulting question: given separate first-order access to fff and hhh, can the number of ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations be reduced without inflating the (already-optimal) number of h′h'h′-evaluations? The gradient sliding (GS) algorithm formalized here, from Lan's textbook treatment (Chapter 8, building on Lan's own 2016 Mathematical Programming paper "Gradient sliding for composite optimization"), answers this in the affirmative: it "slides" past ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations on most iterations while still achieving the optimal O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2) subgradient count for h′h'h′.

Setting

Fix a real inner-product space EEE and a closed convex set X⊆EX\subseteq EX⊆E. The composite problem is

Ψ∗≡min⁡x∈X{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)},(8.1.1)\Psi^* \equiv \min_{x\in X}\{\Psi(x) := f(x)+h(x)+\chi(x)\}, \qquad (8.1.1)Ψ∗≡x∈Xmin​{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)},(8.1.1)

where χ\chiχ is a "relatively simple" convex function (its own proximal step is assumed cheap), f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb Rf:X→R is convex with LLL-Lipschitz gradient,

f(x)≤f(y)+⟨∇f(y),x−y⟩+L2∥x−y∥2,∀x,y∈X,(8.1.2)f(x)\le f(y)+\langle\nabla f(y),x-y\rangle+\tfrac L2\|x-y\|^2, \qquad \forall x,y\in X, \quad (8.1.2)f(x)≤f(y)+⟨∇f(y),x−y⟩+2L​∥x−y∥2,∀x,y∈X,(8.1.2)

and h:X→Rh:X\to\mathbb Rh:X→R is convex and MMM-Lipschitz-like in the sense that for every subgradient h′(y)∈∂h(y)h'(y)\in\partial h(y)h′(y)∈∂h(y),

h(x)≤h(y)+⟨h′(y),x−y⟩+M∥x−y∥,∀x,y∈X.(8.1.3)h(x)\le h(y)+\langle h'(y),x-y\rangle+M\|x-y\|, \qquad \forall x,y\in X. \quad (8.1.3)h(x)≤h(y)+⟨h′(y),x−y⟩+M∥x−y∥,∀x,y∈X.(8.1.3)

Let V(a,b)V(a,b)V(a,b) be a Bregman-type prox-function built from a 1-strongly-convex distance-generating function ν\nuν (Sect. 3.2), so V(a,b)≥12∥b−a∥2V(a,b)\ge\tfrac12\|b-a\|^2V(a,b)≥21​∥b−a∥2.

The gradient sliding (GS) algorithm (Algorithm 8.1) keeps an outer iterate xkx_kxk​, model point gk(⋅)≡lf(xk,⋅):=f(xk)+⟨∇f(xk),⋅−xk⟩g_k(\cdot)\equiv l_f(x_k,\cdot):=f(x_k)+\langle\nabla f(x_k),\cdot-x_k\ranglegk​(⋅)≡lf​(xk​,⋅):=f(xk​)+⟨∇f(xk​),⋅−xk​⟩, and running average xˉk\bar x_kxˉk​ (xˉ0=x0\bar x_0=x_0xˉ0​=x0​). Each outer step k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N delegates to the prox-sliding (PS) procedure: given the affine model gkg_kgk​, prox-center xk−1x_{k-1}xk−1​, parameter βk\beta_kβk​, and sliding length TkT_kTk​, PS runs TkT_kTk​ inner iterations

ut=arg⁡min⁡u∈X{g(u)+lh(ut−1,u)+βV(x,u)+βptV(ut−1,u)+χ(u)},u~t=(1−θt)u~t−1+θtut,(8.1.17)–(8.1.18)u_t = \arg\min_{u\in X}\{g(u)+l_h(u_{t-1},u)+\beta V(x,u)+\beta p_tV(u_{t-1},u)+\chi(u)\}, \qquad \tilde u_t = (1-\theta_t)\tilde u_{t-1}+\theta_tu_t, \quad (8.1.17)\text{--}(8.1.18)ut​=argu∈Xmin​{g(u)+lh​(ut−1​,u)+βV(x,u)+βpt​V(ut−1​,u)+χ(u)},u~t​=(1−θt​)u~t−1​+θt​ut​,(8.1.17)–(8.1.18)

where lh(y;u):=h(y)+⟨h′(y),u−y⟩l_h(y;u):=h(y)+\langle h'(y),u-y\ranglelh​(y;u):=h(y)+⟨h′(y),u−y⟩ (8.1.14), without ever recomputing ∇f\nabla f∇f during these TkT_kTk​ steps — the single affine model ggg is reused throughout. This is the mechanism by which GS "slides" past most ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations. PS returns (xk,x~k)(x_k,\tilde x_k)(xk​,x~k​), and the outer loop updates xˉk=(1−γk)xˉk−1+γkx~k\bar x_k=(1-\gamma_k)\bar x_{k-1}+\gamma_k\tilde x_kxˉk​=(1−γk​)xˉk−1​+γk​x~k​.

Formalization targets

Building block (Proposition 8.1)

β(1−Pt)−1V(ut,u)+[Φ(u~t)−Φ(u)]≤Pt(1−Pt)−1[βV(u0,u)+M22β∑i=1t(pi2Pi−1)−1],∀u∈X, t≥1,\beta(1-P_t)^{-1}V(u_t,u)+[\Phi(\tilde u_t)-\Phi(u)] \le P_t(1-P_t)^{-1}\Big[\beta V(u_0,u)+ \frac{M^2}{2\beta}\sum_{i=1}^t(p_i^2P_{i-1})^{-1}\Big], \quad \forall u\in X, \, t\ge1,β(1−Pt​)−1V(ut​,u)+[Φ(u~t​)−Φ(u)]≤Pt​(1−Pt​)−1[βV(u0​,u)+2βM2​i=1∑t​(pi2​Pi−1​)−1],∀u∈X,t≥1,

where Φ(u):=g(u)+h(u)+βV(x,u)+χ(u)\Phi(u):=g(u)+h(u)+\beta V(x,u)+\chi(u)Φ(u):=g(u)+h(u)+βV(x,u)+χ(u) and {pt},{θt},{Pt}\{p_t\},\{\theta_t\},\{P_t\}{pt​},{θt​},{Pt​} satisfy the recursion (8.1.20). This is the per-inner-iteration guarantee on how close (ut,u~t)(u_t,\tilde u_t)(ut​,u~t​) comes to solving Φ\PhiΦ's own minimization.

Intermediate (Theorem 8.1(a))

Assuming the PS schedule (8.1.20) and GS schedule conditions (8.1.25), (8.1.33) (the case where XXX may be unbounded),

Ψ(xˉN)−Ψ(x∗)≤ΓNβ11−PT1V(x0,x∗)+M2ΓN2∑k=1N∑i=1TkγkPTkΓkβk(1−PTk)pi2Pi−1,∀N≥1,\Psi(\bar x_N)-\Psi(x^*) \le \frac{\Gamma_N\beta_1}{1-P_{T_1}}V(x_0,x^*) + \frac{M^2\Gamma_N}{2}\sum_{k=1}^N\sum_{i=1}^{T_k}\frac{\gamma_kP_{T_k}} {\Gamma_k\beta_k(1-P_{T_k})p_i^2P_{i-1}}, \qquad \forall N\ge1,Ψ(xˉN​)−Ψ(x∗)≤1−PT1​​ΓN​β1​​V(x0​,x∗)+2M2ΓN​​k=1∑N​i=1∑Tk​​Γk​βk​(1−PTk​​)pi2​Pi−1​γk​PTk​​​,∀N≥1,

a general bound in terms of the abstract schedule, obtained by telescoping Proposition 8.1's guarantee (via Proposition 8.2's per-outer-step recursion, cited but not restated here) across outer iterations.

Goal (Corollary 8.1(a))

With the concrete schedule pt=t/2p_t=t/2pt​=t/2, θt=2(t+1)/(t(t+3))\theta_t=2(t+1)/(t(t+3))θt​=2(t+1)/(t(t+3)) (8.1.39), and, for a fixed horizon NNN and free parameter D~>0\tilde D>0D~>0,

βk=2Lk,γk=2k+1,Tk=⌈M2Nk2D~L2⌉,(8.1.40)\beta_k=\frac{2L}{k}, \qquad \gamma_k=\frac2{k+1}, \qquad T_k=\Big\lceil\frac{M^2Nk^2}{\tilde DL^2}\Big\rceil, \quad (8.1.40)βk​=k2L​,γk​=k+12​,Tk​=⌈D~L2M2Nk2​⌉,(8.1.40) Ψ(xˉN)−Ψ(x∗)≤2LN(N+1)[3V(x0,x∗)+2D~],∀N≥1.(8.1.41)\Psi(\bar x_N)-\Psi(x^*) \le \frac{2L}{N(N+1)}\big[3V(x_0,x^*)+2\tilde D\big], \qquad \forall N\ge1. \quad (8.1.41)Ψ(xˉN​)−Ψ(x∗)≤N(N+1)2L​[3V(x0​,x∗)+2D~],∀N≥1.(8.1.41)

This is the explicit-constant complexity bound: it is the weakest statement stable under changing L,M,N,D~L,M,N,\tilde DL,M,N,D~, obtained purely algebraically from Theorem 8.1(a)'s general bound once the schedule is plugged in.

Significance

Corollary 8.1(a), together with the schedule of TkT_kTk​, shows the total number of outer iterations — and hence ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations — needed for an ε\varepsilonε-solution is O(L/ε)O(L/ \varepsilon)O(L/ε), matching the optimal rate for smooth-only minimization (no penalty for the nonsmooth term's presence), while the total number of inner iterations ∑kTk\sum_kT_k∑k​Tk​ — and hence h′h'h′-evaluations — remains O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2), the rate that is already known to be unimprovable for nonsmooth convex minimization. GS is thus the first method (per the section's own account) to decouple the two oracle costs at their respective optimal rates, rather than paying the worse of the two for both. This underlies later chapters' extensions (accelerated gradient sliding, decentralized optimization over networks) and is directly applicable whenever a composite objective's two components have asymmetric evaluation cost, as in the LASSO-type and regularized-loss examples above. Formalizing it contributes a machine-checked account of the telescoping/recursion argument across two nested loops (outer GS, inner PS) — a pattern distinct from the single-loop accelerated-gradient arguments already in this series (Chapters 3, 7) and not otherwise present in the corpus (q=gradient sliding, q=prox sliding, q=composite optimization all return zero hits as of 2026-09-18).

Difficulty

The obvious first idea — treat the PS procedure's inexact inner solve as adding an error term to a standard accelerated-gradient argument and bound that error by the number of inner steps — fails because a naive termination criterion (the function-value optimality gap of the PS subproblem) does not yield the accelerated rate; the book's own analysis (the paragraph preceding Proposition 8.1) states this explicitly. The working criterion instead combines the optimality gap and the distance to the optimal solution, weighted by the PtP_tPt​-sequence — this is exactly the left-hand side of (8.1.21), not a simpler quantity, and it is this specific combination that telescopes cleanly across both the inner PS loop and, subsequently, the outer GS loop.

Formalization scope

E is NormedAddCommGroup E, InnerProductSpace ℝ E; X : Set E. The Bregman divergence V, model function g/lh, and constraint function chi are hypothesis-carrying objects (functions with the defining (in)equalities as hypotheses), matching this series' convention rather than fixing them to the Euclidean/entropic special case. ps_procedure_bound (Proposition 8.1) takes the three-point inequality that the argmin in (8.1.17) yields (a standard consequence of Lemma 3.5, cited but not re-derived) as an explicit hypothesis on the sequence u, rather than proving well-posedness of the argmin itself. gs_convergence_bound (Theorem 8.1(a)) similarly takes Proposition 8.2's per-outer-step recursion (8.1.26) as a hypothesis — its own proof composes Proposition 8.1 with model-function inequalities (8.1.27)-(8.1.31) that are outside this mission's selected scope — and formalizes only part (a) (unbounded X), not part (b) (compact X, reverse monotonicity), since only (a) is on the goal's dependency path. explicit_gs_rate (Corollary 8.1(a)) uses the closed forms Pt=2/((t+1)(t+2))P_t=2/((t+1)(t+2))Pt​=2/((t+1)(t+2)) and Γk=2/(k(k+1))\Gamma_k=2/(k(k+1))Γk​=2/(k(k+1)) that the specific schedule (8.1.39)-(8.1.40) produces (8.1.44, 8.1.46 — cited, not restated), rather than the general recursion, and takes Theorem 8.1(a)'s bound, specialized to this schedule, as a hypothesis: its own content is the purely algebraic simplification (8.1.45)-(8.1.48) into the closed-form bound (8.1.41), not a re-derivation of the general theorem. The source PDF's own printed βk=2L/(νk)\beta_k=2L/(\nu k)βk​=2L/(νk) (8.1.40) is a text-extraction artifact (no such ν\nuν-indexed quantity appears anywhere in this section); the proof's own algebra (γkβk/(Γk(1−PTk))=2L/(1−PTk)\gamma_k\beta_k/(\Gamma_k(1-P_{T_k}))=2L/(1-P_{T_k})γk​βk​/(Γk​(1−PTk​​))=2L/(1−PTk​​), using Γk=2/(k(k+1))\Gamma_k=2/(k(k+1))Γk​=2/(k(k+1)), γk=2/(k+1)\gamma_k=2/(k+1)γk​=2/(k+1)) is consistent only with βk=2L/k\beta_k=2L/kβk​=2L/k, which is what is formalized. A trivializing formalization would fix h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 or χ≡0\chi\equiv0χ≡0, collapsing the composite problem to plain smooth minimization and making the entire PS-procedure apparatus vacuous; this is ruled out by keeping hhh and χ\chiχ as free convex functions throughout with hMLip an active, non-degenerate hypothesis. Proposition 8.2 (the recursion gs_convergence_bound cites) and Theorem 8.1(b) (the compact-X case) are natural extensions a further contribution could add.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, 2020, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • G. Lan, Gradient sliding for composite optimization, Mathematical Programming 159 (2016), 201–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0955-5
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, H. Zhang, Generalized Uniformly Optimal Methods for Nonlinear Programming, Journal of Scientific Computing, 2019 (arXiv preprint 2015). arXiv:1406.5613
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supermodularity and Complementarity III: Assortative Matching under SupermodularityTextbook

Motivation

Which workers end up at which firms, and does higher quality always land at the more productive employer? This is the question of assortative matching: whether an efficient assignment pairs the best workers with the best firms, the second-best with the second-best, and so on down the line. The question has a long history in labor economics. Becker [1973] showed, for the simplest case of two-sided homogeneous firms and a single worker characteristic, that profit maximization under complementarity forces exactly this kind of sorting. Kremer [1993] extended the analysis to firms with many workers of a single type, under a specific Cobb–Douglas production function. What was missing was a general theory: one that covers firms hiring several types of workers simultaneously, firms that differ in efficiency, and labor markets of any degree of tightness, while still deriving sorting from a single primitive economic condition rather than from functional-form assumptions.

Topkis's Chapter 3, §3.2 supplies exactly that theory, as an application of the book's central tool — supermodularity — to the assignment problem. The condition that drives every result in this mission is a single complementarity hypothesis on the firms' profit functions: no concavity, no differentiability, no specific functional form. That a purely order-theoretic hypothesis pins down the qualitative shape of an optimal assignment is the mission's central content, and the platform currently has no lattice-theoretic treatment of matching at all — its one matching result formalizes Gale–Shapley two-sided stable matching by preference, an entirely different mechanism (see Formalization scope below).

Setting

Fix nnn worker types, indexed i=1,…,ni = 1,\dots,ni=1,…,n, each with a lattice XiX_iXi​ of available worker qualities, and mmm firms, indexed j=1,…,mj = 1,\dots,mj=1,…,m. A matching assigns to each firm jjj a vector of qualities xj=(x1j,…,xnj)∈∏i=1nXix^j = (x^j_1,\dots,x^j_n) \in \prod_{i=1}^n X_ixj=(x1j​,…,xnj​)∈∏i=1n​Xi​ — one worker of each type hired by that firm (a firm that hires no worker of some type, or several, is accommodated by adjoining an artificial "no worker" element to XiX_iXi​, or by splitting a type into several, as Topkis notes on p. 97; the model itself needs neither device). If firm jjj hires the quality vector xxx, it earns profit f(x,j)∈Rf(x,j) \in \mathbb{R}f(x,j)∈R; the dependence on jjj reflects differences among firms such as technology or management efficiency. A matching is optimal if it maximizes the total profit ∑j=1mf(xj,j)\sum_{j=1}^m f(x^j,j)∑j=1m​f(xj,j) over every matching.

A matching is increasing if x1⪯x2⪯⋯⪯xmx^1 \preceq x^2 \preceq \cdots \preceq x^mx1⪯x2⪯⋯⪯xm — a single chain, firm by firm, under the pointwise order on ∏iXi\prod_i X_i∏i​Xi​ — and ordered if every two of its firm-assignments are comparable (a weaker, only pairwise, condition). The labor market is loose if each firm's hiring problem can be solved by unconstrained maximization over the whole quality space ∏iXi\prod_i X_i∏i​Xi​, without regard to the other firms' decisions, and tight if the supply of each worker type is exactly mmm, so a feasible matching must assign every available worker to exactly one firm.

The hypothesis common to every result is that f(x,j)f(x,j)f(x,j) is supermodular in the joint variable (x,j)(x,j)(x,j) on (∏iXi)×{1,…,m}\bigl(\prod_i X_i\bigr) \times \{1,\dots,m\}(∏i​Xi​)×{1,…,m}: for every (x,j)(x,j)(x,j) and (x′,j′)(x',j')(x′,j′), f(x,j)+f(x′,j′)≤f(x∨x′,j∨j′)+f(x∧x′,j∧j′)f(x,j) + f(x',j') \le f(x\vee x', j\vee j') + f(x\wedge x', j\wedge j')f(x,j)+f(x′,j′)≤f(x∨x′,j∨j′)+f(x∧x′,j∧j′). By Theorem 2.6.1 of Chapter 2, this is equivalent to fff having increasing differences both between any two worker types' qualities (complementarity among the worker types) and between each worker type's quality and the firm index (complementarity between quality and firm efficiency).

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.2.3

f supermodular in (x,j) on (∏i=1nXi)×{1,…,m} ⟹ ∃ x increasing and optimal.f \text{ supermodular in } (x,j) \text{ on } \Bigl(\textstyle\prod_{i=1}^n X_i\Bigr)\times\{1,\dots,m\} \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\, x \text{ increasing and optimal.}f supermodular in (x,j) on (∏i=1n​Xi​)×{1,…,m} ⟹ ∃x increasing and optimal. If, in addition, the labor market is tight, every increasing (tight) matching is optimal.\text{If, in addition, the labor market is tight, every increasing (tight) matching is optimal.}If, in addition, the labor market is tight, every increasing (tight) matching is optimal.

Existence of an increasing optimal matching, with no loose-market hypothesis — the general case, and the harder of this mission's results to formalize, since its proof is a non-constructive lexicographic-minimization argument rather than a direct reduction to per-firm optimization.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 3.2.1 (the loose case): under an unconstrained labor market, each firm's set of optimal hiring decisions is increasing in the firm index with respect to the induced set ordering, and an increasing optimal matching exists — proved directly from Chapter 2's monotone-comparative-statics theorems (mission II of this series).
  • Theorem 3.2.4: joint supermodularity in (x,j)(x,j)(x,j) together with strict supermodularity in xxx alone, for each fixed jjj, forces every optimal matching to be ordered.
  • Theorem 3.2.5: joint strict supermodularity in (x,j)(x,j)(x,j) forces every optimal matching to be increasing, the stronger of the two conclusions.

Significance

The result gives a clean, hypothesis-light account of assortative matching: sorting by quality is a structural consequence of complementarity in the profit function, not an artifact of a particular production technology. It generalizes Becker's and Kremer's special cases to arbitrarily many worker types, heterogeneous firms, and any degree of labor-market tightness, identifying supermodularity in (x,j)(x,j)(x,j) as the single condition doing all the work. Formalizing it contributes a genuinely new object to the platform: a firm-quality matching model driven by lattice-theoretic complementarity rather than by preference orderings, together with the four distinct comparative-statics conclusions (loose-market optimality, general existence, orderedness, increasingness) that the strength of the supermodularity hypothesis buys. No prior formalized proof of any of these four theorems exists on the platform or, to the author's knowledge, in any other proof assistant library.

Difficulty

The obvious approach — prove the goal (Theorem 3.2.3) by reducing to the loose case, firm by firm, as in Theorem 3.2.1 — does not work, because the loose-market argument crucially uses that each firm's decision does not constrain any other's; without that, a locally optimal per-firm choice need not combine into a globally optimal matching. Topkis's actual proof is non-constructive: among all optimal matchings, pick one that lexicographically minimizes the "latest" failure of the increasing property (a well-ordering argument over the finite but unbounded set of optimal matchings, not an inequality chase), then show that if it still fails to be increasing, exchanging the two offending firms' assignments via ∨,∧\vee,\wedge∨,∧ strictly increases total profit — contradicting optimality by supermodularity. Formalizing this requires setting up the lexicographic minimization (over pairs (j,i)(j,i)(j,i) ordered by jjj then iii) as a well-founded induction, not merely restating the inequality (3.2.3) at the end of the proof.

Formalization scope

Worker-type quality spaces XiX_iXi​ are modeled as finite, nonempty lattices (Lattice, Fintype, Nonempty); firms are indexed by Fin m. A matching is Fin m → ∀ i, X i with no constraint beyond membership — the general matching problem (3.2.1) imposes no injectivity or supply constraint on its own, a modeling choice Topkis's own text supports (p. 96: the "{xi1,…,xim}⊆Xi\{x^1_i,\dots,x^m_i\}\subseteq X_i{xi1​,…,xim​}⊆Xi​" representation of a matching "may not distinguish between all distinct assignments of workers to firms if the qualities of different workers of any given type are not all distinct, but that ambiguity is inconsequential"). Tightness is instead formalized as an explicit feasibility predicate (a bijection between firms and the mmm available workers of each type) supplied as a hypothesis exactly where a tight-market theorem needs it, never folded into the general optimality predicate.

A trivializing formalization to avoid: collapsing Theorem 3.2.4's "ordered" conclusion and Theorem 3.2.5's "increasing" conclusion into the same statement, or conflating their two distinct supermodularity hypotheses (joint-non-strict-plus-per-firm-strict versus jointly strict) — the mission's four milestones are kept as four genuinely different claims with their own hypotheses, not variations proved once and restated. AGT.stable_matching_exists (Gale–Shapley) is not reused here, despite the shared word "matching": it produces a two-sided, preference-based stable matching with no notion of aggregate profit, a mechanism unrelated to this mission's profit-maximizing, supermodularity-driven assignment.

Reused from earlier missions in this series: the induced set ordering InducedSetOrder (mission I) and joint supermodularity SupermodularOn (mission II), both published platform definitions. Contributions most welcome on the goal theorem's lexicographic-minimization argument, the mission's hardest step.

Selected references

  • G. S. Becker, A Theory of Marriage: Part I, Journal of Political Economy 81 (1973), 813–846. https://doi.org/10.1086/260084
  • M. Kremer, The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development, Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (1993), 551–575. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118400
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 2011 (orig. 1998). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders II: The Mean Residual Life OrderTextbook

Motivation

A device's mean residual life at age ttt — its conditional expected remaining lifetime given that it has survived to ttt — is one of the oldest and most interpretable summaries in reliability and survival analysis: it is what an insurer, a maintenance planner, or a hospital outcomes researcher actually wants to know about a unit still in service. Comparing two mean residual life functions pointwise gives the mean residual life order ≤mrl\le_{mrl}≤mrl​, a natural "the survivor of XXX is worn less, on average, than the survivor of YYY" comparison that is weaker than the usual stochastic order but not directly comparable to it (the book states plainly that neither implies the other in general). This mission formalizes the order's definition and its precise relationship to the stronger hazard rate order ≤hr\le_{hr}≤hr​: under an extra monotone-ratio condition the two orders coincide, and one direction of that coincidence always holds. A third milestone gives one of the chapter's closure properties, showing that "decreasing mean residual life" (DMRL) — an aging notion used throughout reliability theory to describe units that wear out, rather than improve, with age — is preserved under adding independent noise.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) and a real-valued random variable XXX with survival function Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}\bar F(x) = P\{X>x\}Fˉ(x)=P{X>x} and finite mean. The mean residual life function of XXX at ttt is

m(t)={E[X−t∣X>t],t<t∗;0,otherwise,t∗=sup⁡{t:Fˉ(t)>0}.m(t) = \begin{cases} E[X-t \mid X>t], & t < t^*; \\ 0, & \text{otherwise,} \end{cases} \qquad t^* = \sup\{t : \bar F(t) > 0\}.m(t)={E[X−t∣X>t],0,​t<t∗;otherwise,​t∗=sup{t:Fˉ(t)>0}.

For a second random variable YYY on (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν) with mrl function lll, XXX is smaller than YYY in the mean residual life order, X≤mrlYX \le_{mrl} YX≤mrl​Y, if m(t)≤l(t)m(t) \le l(t)m(t)≤l(t) for every ttt. The hazard rate order, restated in this mission's own namespace (Chapter 1's version cannot be imported — see Formalization scope), is the general, absolute-continuity-free comparison Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x)\bar F(x)\bar G(y) \ge \bar F(y)\bar G(x)Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x) for all x≤yx \le yx≤y, where Gˉ\bar GGˉ is YYY's survival function. A random variable XXX is DMRL (decreasing mean residual life) if its mrl function mmm is decreasing in ttt.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 2.A.2

(m(t)l(t) increases in t) and X≤mrlY   ⟹   X≤hrY.\left(\frac{m(t)}{l(t)}\text{ increases in }t\right)\ \text{and}\ X \le_{mrl} Y \ \implies\ X \le_{hr} Y.(l(t)m(t)​ increases in t) and X≤mrl​Y ⟹ X≤hr​Y.

Combined with the companion milestone below, this is a genuine conditional equivalence: under the monotone-ratio hypothesis, ≤mrl\le_{mrl}≤mrl​ and ≤hr\le_{hr}≤hr​ coincide, and in particular X≤mrlY  ⟹  X≤stYX \le_{mrl} Y \implies X \le_{st} YX≤mrl​Y⟹X≤st​Y under that condition. Without the hypothesis, the book states explicitly (the paragraph immediately preceding Theorem 2.A.1) that neither ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ nor ≤mrl\le_{mrl}≤mrl​ implies the other.

Milestones, in attack order

  • Theorem 2.A.1. X≤hrY  ⟹  X≤mrlYX \le_{hr} Y \implies X \le_{mrl} YX≤hr​Y⟹X≤mrl​Y — the one-directional link that motivates the goal theorem: the hazard rate order, strictly stronger in general, always implies the mean residual life order.
  • Theorem 2.A.11. If XXX is DMRL and ZZZ is a nonnegative random variable independent of XXX, then X≤mrlX+ZX \le_{mrl} X+ZX≤mrl​X+Z — one of the chapter's closure properties (§2.A.3): adding independent nonnegative noise to a DMRL random variable can only increase it in the mean residual life order.

Each milestone is stated exactly as the book states it: no constant is hard-coded, no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) or asymptotic approximation is involved, and the goal's monotone-ratio hypothesis is the genuine ratio m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t), not two separately-monotone functions (a different, unrelated condition the book itself does not state).

Significance

The mean residual life order sits at a specific point in the book's own hierarchy of orders: strictly implied by the hazard rate order (Theorem 2.A.1), and — the goal theorem — reversible into the hazard rate order under one extra monotonicity hypothesis on the ratio of the two mrl functions. This "sandwich" structure is exactly the kind of comparison-of-orders result that makes Chapter 1's usual and hazard rate orders (already formalized in Chunk 01 of this series, restated locally here since drafts cannot import each other) into a genuinely connected theory rather than a list of unrelated definitions. The DMRL closure property (Theorem 2.A.11) is separately significant: DMRL is one of the book's standard "aging" notions, used in reliability engineering to model components that wear out over time, and its preservation under adding independent noise is a basic tool for building compound reliability models (e.g. a component with an added, uncorrelated failure mode) from simpler DMRL parts.

No prior art exists on the platform for either order: GET /theorems?q=mean+residual+life returns zero hits, and GET /theorems?q=hazard+rate returns exactly one hit (DQJSQ.theorem2_ifr), an unrelated queueing-theory IFR (increasing failure rate) lemma about patience densities in a fluid queueing model, not this order — it names a different object under a coincidentally similar keyword and is not reused. This mission is a foundational island for the mean residual life order.

Difficulty

The mrl function is a genuinely two-case object: a real conditional expectation on {t:Fˉ(t)>0}\{t : \bar F(t) > 0\}{t:Fˉ(t)>0}, and a hard 000 outside that region. The goal theorem's proof (not formalized here; only the statement is a milestone) differentiates mmm and lll, uses the identity r(t)=m′(t)/m(t)+1/m(t)r(t) = m'(t)/m(t) + 1/m(t)r(t)=m′(t)/m(t)+1/m(t) relating the mrl function to the hazard rate, and compares the two resulting hazard-rate expressions using the ratio's monotonicity — a genuinely analytic argument, not a routine unfolding of definitions. The chief formalization difficulty is keeping the shape of ≤mrl\le_{mrl}≤mrl​ (a pointwise comparison of a derived function) visibly distinct from the function-class shape of ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ used in Chapter 1, since the book explicitly warns that conflating the two orders is a live error (neither implies the other in general) — see Formalization scope below for how each shape is kept separate.

Formalization scope

All three random variables in this mission's milestones are real-valued measurable functions on a MeasureTheory.Measure space, matching this series' Chapter 1 convention (Chunk 01). The mrl function mrl μ X t is defined as if 0 < P{X>t} then (∫ ω in {X>t}, (X ω - t) ∂μ) / P{X>t} else 0, formalizing the case split on t<t∗t < t^*t<t∗ directly via positivity of the survival probability (its defining equivalent under the survival function's monotonicity) rather than through the derived quantity t∗t^*t∗ itself. MrlOrder μ ν X Y is ∀ t : ℝ, mrl μ X t ≤ mrl ν Y t — a direct pointwise comparison of two functions, deliberately kept a different shape from Chapter 1's UsualOrder (a ∀ φ ∈ 𝒞, E[φ∘X] ≤ E[φ∘Y] function-class quantifier), since the book's own warning that ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ and ≤mrl\le_{mrl}≤mrl​ neither implies the other is a warning against treating them as interchangeable comparison shapes.

The hazard rate order is restated locally in this chapter's own namespace (StochasticOrders.MeanResidualLife.HazardRateOrder) rather than imported from Chunk 01's StochasticOrders.Usual.HazardRateOrder, because each chapter's mission is drafted and reviewed as an independent Prove2Me proposal and one draft cannot import another draft's unpublished Lean; its definition is identical in shape to Chunk 01's own restatement of the general, absolute-continuity-free survival-function form of ≤hr\le_{hr}≤hr​ (not the density-ratio form, which requires absolute continuity the book does not assume at this level of generality).

Every milestone that consumes mrl carries explicit Integrable hypotheses on the random variables involved (Integrable X μ, and Integrable Y ν or Integrable Z μ as applicable), formalizing the book's own standing "finite mean" hypothesis from §2.A.1's definition of the mrl function: without it, the Bochner integral inside mrl would return its junk value 0 for a non-integrable variable on some tail set, letting a hypothesis like MrlOrder μ ν X Y hold of a function that is not actually the book's mean residual life function. DMRL μ X is Antitone (mrl μ X), the book's own "m(t)m(t)m(t) is decreasing in ttt" in the weak, non-strict monotone sense used throughout the book for "increasing"/"decreasing".

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: stating the goal theorem with the ratio hypothesis as two separate monotonicity conditions on mmm and lll individually (rather than genuine monotonicity of the ratio m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t) on the region where l(t)>0l(t)>0l(t)>0) would be a different, strictly stronger and easier-to-satisfy hypothesis than the book's own — the milestone here states MonotoneOn (fun t => mrl μ X t / mrl ν Y t) {t | 0 < mrl ν Y t}, the genuine ratio restricted to where the denominator does not vanish, matching Theorem 2.A.2's own "m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t)m(t)/l(t) increases in ttt" verbatim.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer 2007, Chapter 2 (Mean Residual Life Orders), §2.A. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • W. Whitt, "Uniform Conditional Stochastic Order," Journal of Applied Probability, 1980 (characterizations of IFR/DFR by the likelihood ratio order, cited by the book's remarks section as background for the chapter's aging notions).
  • This series' Chunk 01 (StochasticOrders.Usual), for the usual and hazard rate orders this chapter's own restated definitions parallel.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supermodularity and Complementarity IV: Monotone Optimal Policies in Markov Decision ProcessesTextbook

Motivation

A Markov decision process (MDP) chooses a decision in every period of a dynamic system whose state evolves stochastically in response to the decision, so as to maximize expected discounted return. Firms use this model for inventory, pricing, and advertising decisions that respond to a randomly evolving demand state; engineers use it for maintaining or replacing equipment that degrades stochastically. A recurring practical question is qualitative rather than numerical: does the optimal decision increase with the state — should a firm price higher after a period of strong sales, or replace a machine sooner the worse its observed condition — without having to solve the dynamic program numerically for every instance of the model? Topkis's Chapter 3, Section 3.9 (Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, 2011, building on Topkis [1968]) answers this by isolating the lattice-theoretic structure — supermodularity of the return function and of the transition law — under which monotone optimal policies are guaranteed on structural grounds alone. A closely related but logically independent question was studied earlier by Lehmann [1955], who characterized when a family of distributions is stochastically increasing in a parameter; Topkis generalizes Lehmann's characterization to any property of the parameter dependence whose defining set of functions forms a closed convex cone, of which stochastic monotonicity, supermodularity, and convexity are three instances (Theorem 3.9.1, Corollary 3.9.1). Serfozo [1976] independently develops related conditions for partially observed Markov decision processes, and Amir [1996] and Amir, Mirman, and Perkins [1991] give analogous monotonicity results for other classes of dynamic programming models.

Setting

Fix a finite planning horizon of kkk periods, i=1,…,ki = 1, \dots, ki=1,…,k. In period iii the state ttt ranges over a set Ti⊆RmT_i \subseteq \mathbb{R}^mTi​⊆Rm; given state ttt, the decision xxx is restricted to a finite, nonempty set Xt,i⊆RnX_{t,i} \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nXt,i​⊆Rn (finiteness guarantees that an optimal decision always exists — no continuity or compactness argument is used). Write Si={(x,t):t∈Ti, x∈Xt,i}S_i = \{(x,t) : t \in T_i,\, x \in X_{t,i}\}Si​={(x,t):t∈Ti​,x∈Xt,i​} for the set of admissible (decision, state) pairs in period iii. The (bounded) expected net return of choosing decision xxx in state ttt, period iii, is ri(x,t)r_i(x,t)ri​(x,t). A discount rate β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0,1]β∈[0,1] gives γ=1/(1+β)\gamma = 1/(1+\beta)γ=1/(1+β), the value in period iii of one unit of return in period i+1i+1i+1. Given decision xxx, state ttt, and period iii, the state www of period i+1i+1i+1 is drawn from a distribution F(x,t,i,⋅)F(x,t,i,\cdot)F(x,t,i,⋅) on Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm.

The optimal-value function fi(t)f_i(t)fi​(t) (present value of acting optimally from state ttt, period iii, onward) and the decision-value function gi(x,t)g_i(x,t)gi​(x,t) (present value of choosing xxx in state ttt, period iii, then acting optimally thereafter) are defined by backward induction from period kkk:

gk(x,t)=rk(x,t),fi(t)=max⁡x∈Xt,igi(x,t),gi(x,t)=ri(x,t)+γ∫fi+1(w) dF(x,t,i,w)(i<k).g_k(x,t) = r_k(x,t), \qquad f_i(t) = \max_{x \in X_{t,i}} g_i(x,t), \qquad g_i(x,t) = r_i(x,t) + \gamma \int f_{i+1}(w)\, dF(x,t,i,w) \quad (i < k).gk​(x,t)=rk​(x,t),fi​(t)=x∈Xt,i​max​gi​(x,t),gi​(x,t)=ri​(x,t)+γ∫fi+1​(w)dF(x,t,i,w)(i<k).

A subset SSS of a Euclidean space is increasing if it is upward closed under the coordinatewise order. A family of distributions {F(a,⋅):a∈D}\{F(a,\cdot) : a \in D\}{F(a,⋅):a∈D} indexed by a parameter aaa is stochastically increasing on DDD if the probability ∫SdF(a,w)\int_S dF(a,w)∫S​dF(a,w) of every increasing set SSS is a monotone (non-decreasing) function of aaa on DDD; when DDD is a sublattice, the family is stochastically supermodular on DDD if that same probability is a supermodular function of aaa on DDD. A real-valued function φ\varphiφ on a lattice is supermodular on a set DDD if φ(a1)+φ(a2)≤φ(a1∨a2)+φ(a1∧a2)\varphi(a_1) + \varphi(a_2) \le \varphi(a_1 \vee a_2) + \varphi(a_1 \wedge a_2)φ(a1​)+φ(a2​)≤φ(a1​∨a2​)+φ(a1​∧a2​) for all a1,a2∈Da_1, a_2 \in Da1​,a2​∈D — the mission series' shared notion, defined once in chunk 02-monotonicity and reused here as Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.9.2 (monotone optimal policies)

gi(x,t) supermodular on Si,fi(t) supermodular on Ti,arg⁡max⁡x∈Xt,igi(x,t) increasing in t,g_i(x,t) \text{ supermodular on } S_i, \qquad f_i(t) \text{ supermodular on } T_i, \qquad \arg\max_{x \in X_{t,i}} g_i(x,t) \text{ increasing in } t,gi​(x,t) supermodular on Si​,fi​(t) supermodular on Ti​,argx∈Xt,i​max​gi​(x,t) increasing in t,

together with the existence of a greatest and a least optimal decision at every state, each increasing in the state, in every period iii — under the hypotheses that SiS_iSi​ is a sublattice of Rn+m\mathbb{R}^{n+m}Rn+m, Xt,iX_{t,i}Xt,i​ is expanding in ttt, rir_iri​ is increasing in ttt (on sections) and jointly supermodular in (x,t)(x,t)(x,t), and F(x,t,i,⋅)F(x,t,i,\cdot)F(x,t,i,⋅) is stochastically increasing in ttt (on sections) and stochastically jointly supermodular in (x,t)(x,t)(x,t), for every period iii.

This is the weakest of the targets that is still worth stating on its own: it packages four related conclusions (parts (a)–(d) of Theorem 3.9.2) that share one hypothesis set, rather than isolating just the headline monotone-decision claim, because the book's own proof derives all four together and a solver attacking part (c) or (d) needs part (a) and (b) established first.

Supporting milestones

  • Lemma 3.9.4: under the monotonicity half of the goal's hypotheses alone (no supermodularity), fi(t)f_i(t)fi​(t) is increasing in ttt for every period iii. This is the induction Theorem 3.9.2 reuses and strengthens.
  • Corollary 3.9.1(b): on a sublattice TTT, a family of distributions is stochastically supermodular in ttt iff ∫h(w) dF(t,w)\int h(w)\,dF(t,w)∫h(w)dF(t,w) is supermodular in ttt for every increasing hhh. This is what lets the goal's hypothesis "F(x,t,i,⋅)F(x,t,i,\cdot)F(x,t,i,⋅) stochastically supermodular in (x,t)(x,t)(x,t)" be converted into "∫fi+1(w) dF(x,t,i,w)\int f_{i+1}(w)\,dF(x,t,i,w)∫fi+1​(w)dF(x,t,i,w) supermodular in (x,t)(x,t)(x,t)", the step that feeds gig_igi​'s supermodularity.
  • Theorem 3.9.1: the general closed-convex-cone characterization of which Corollary 3.9.1(b) is the supermodularity instance (monotonicity and convexity are the other two instances, not formalized here since the goal's proof only needs the supermodularity case).

Significance

The result gives a purely structural sufficient condition — no smoothness, convexity of the decision set, or specific functional form — for monotone comparative statics in dynamic optimization: whenever the one-period return and the state transition are individually monotone and jointly supermodular in (decision, state), so is the whole multi-period value function, and so are the optimal decisions. Textbook applications include optimal advertising that decreases with prior-period sales, optimal pricing that increases with prior-period sales, and optimal maintenance of a deteriorating system, none of which need to be re-derived from scratch once the structural hypotheses are checked for the specific return and transition functions at hand.

Formalizing it contributes a genuinely new layer to the mission series and, per the paper's own triage (substrate.md), to the platform's application of Mathlib's probability-kernel infrastructure: a finite-horizon MDP with a Lebesgue–Stieltjes-style transition law and its associated stochastic-dominance vocabulary (stochastically increasing / stochastically supermodular families of distributions) did not previously exist on the platform or in this mission series, and both are reusable beyond this mission by any future formalization of dynamic programming under uncertainty. The proof itself is not open — Topkis [2011] (unchanged from the 1968/1998 original) gives a complete, elementary backward-induction argument — so what this mission produces is the formalization of a known, structurally distinctive proof technique, not a new mathematical result.

Difficulty

The naive argument — "supermodularity of rir_iri​ plus supermodularity of the transition kernel obviously gives supermodularity of gig_igi​" — breaks exactly at the integral: supermodularity of (x,t)↦F(x,t,i,⋅)(x,t) \mapsto F(x,t,i,\cdot)(x,t)↦F(x,t,i,⋅) is a statement about the whole family of distributions, not about a single number, so "the transition is jointly supermodular" has to be unpacked into "the probability of every increasing set is jointly supermodular in (x,t)(x,t)(x,t)" before it says anything about ∫fi+1(w) dF(x,t,i,w)\int f_{i+1}(w)\,dF(x,t,i,w)∫fi+1​(w)dF(x,t,i,w) for a specific function fi+1f_{i+1}fi+1​. Corollary 3.9.1(b) is exactly the step that licenses this unpacking, and it is not free: it needs Theorem 3.9.1's closed-convex-cone argument (approximating fi+1f_{i+1}fi+1​ from below by increasing step functions and invoking monotone convergence), not a pointwise argument on rir_iri​ and FFF separately. A second place the naive argument fails is at the constraint sets: because Xt,iX_{t,i}Xt,i​ only grows with ttt rather than being fixed, monotonicity of fif_ifi​ (Lemma 3.9.4) needs its own induction combining that growth with monotonicity of gig_igi​ — supermodularity of gig_igi​ alone does not hand you monotonicity of the arg max without it.

Formalization scope

States and decisions are represented as Fin m → ℝ and Fin n → ℝ (finite-dimensional Euclidean coordinate spaces with the coordinatewise/product order, matching the book's own restriction to Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm and Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn — no abstract lattice is used where the book itself specializes). Distributions are represented as MeasureTheory.Measure on the relevant coordinate space, with IsProbabilityMeasure supplied explicitly wherever a stochastic-dominance hypothesis is used (the probability of a set is read off as (μ S).toReal, which is only faithful to ∫SdF\int_S dF∫S​dF when μ is a probability measure — an unconstrained arbitrary measure would let .toReal collapse an infinite value to 000 and make the hypothesis trivially satisfiable, a formalization this mission rules out). Integrands h are required integrable against every measure in the family wherever an integral is asserted to lie in a set V, since the Bochner integral of a non-integrable function is definitionally 0 in Lean/Mathlib and would otherwise make Theorem 3.9.1 and Corollary 3.9.1(b) trivially true. Decision sets Xt,iX_{t,i}Xt,i​ are finite (Finset, not merely a bounded or compact Set) and required nonempty exactly where the book assumes it: this finiteness, not any compactness or semicontinuity argument, is what guarantees an optimal decision exists, and dropping it would silently substitute Chapter 2's compactness-based existence machinery for the different argument this section actually uses. The optimal-value and decision-value functions fi,gif_i, g_ifi​,gi​ are represented as any functions satisfying the two backward-recursion equations that define them, rather than being constructed by explicit backward recursion in Lean; since the equations determine fi,gif_i, g_ifi​,gi​ uniquely from rir_iri​ and FFF, this is a faithful reading of "define fi,gif_i, g_ifi​,gi​ by (3.9.1) and (3.9.2)," not a weakening of the theorem. The goal's part (c) is stated using the mission series' InducedSetOrder (the Veinott/strong set order, chunk 01-lattices) and part (d) as the existence of two selection functions (greatest, least optimal decision), each monotone in the state — matching the book's "there is a greatest (least) optimal decision ... and this greatest (least) optimal decision is increasing in ttt." The infinite-horizon stationary extension that the book gives immediately after Theorem 3.9.2 (relying on an unproved citation to Blackwell [1965]) is out of scope for this mission.

Reusable infrastructure: the StochasticallyIncreasingOn/StochasticallySupermodularOn definitions are parametric in the ambient preorder/lattice and in the measure's target dimension, so a future mission on stochastic convexity (Corollary 3.9.1(c), not formalized here) or on Topkis's §3.10 stochastic inventory model (which explicitly depends on §3.9, per the book's own reading-order note) can reuse them without modification. Contributions extending this mission to the infinite-horizon case, or completing Corollary 3.9.1's monotonicity and convexity halves, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 2011 (unchanged from the 1998 original), Chapter 3, Section 3.9. DOI: 10.1515/9781400822539.
  • D. M. Topkis, "Ordered Optimal Solutions," PhD dissertation / working paper, Stanford University, 1968 (the original source for this section's results).
  • E. L. Lehmann, "Ordered Families of Distributions," Annals of Mathematical Statistics 26(3), 1955, pp. 399–419. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728487
  • R. Serfozo, "Monotone Optimal Policies for Markov Decision Processes," Mathematical Programming Study 6, 1976, pp. 202–215.
  • R. Amir, "Sensitivity Analysis of Multisector Optimal Economic Dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics 25(1), 1996, pp. 123–141.
  • R. Amir, L. J. Mirman, and W. R. Perkins, "One-Sector Nonclassical Optimal Growth: Optimality Conditions and Comparative Dynamics," International Economic Review 32(3), 1991, pp. 625–644.
  • D. Blackwell, "Discounted Dynamic Programming," Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36(1), 1965, pp. 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders III: The Convex Order and Strassen's Martingale CouplingTextbook

Comparing variability, not just location

Chapter I's usual stochastic order compares "how large" two random variables tend to be. A different, equally common question in operations research is "how spread out" a random variable is: two portfolios with the same expected loss can differ sharply in how much that loss varies, and a risk-averse decision maker or a convex cost function cares about exactly that difference. Shaked and Shanthikumar's Stochastic Orders (Springer, 2007) formalizes this comparison as the convex order, the book's mean-preserving-spread order (known outside OR and probability circles as the Rothschild–Stiglitz order from economics). This mission formalizes the order and its central structural result: Strassen's martingale-coupling characterization.

The convex order

Let XXX be a real-valued random variable on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a real-valued random variable on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the convex order, written X≤cxYX \le_{cx} YX≤cx​Y, if

E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every convex φ:R→R for which the two expectations exist.E[\varphi(X)] \le E[\varphi(Y)] \quad \text{for every convex } \varphi:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R} \text{ for which the two expectations exist.}E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every convex φ:R→R for which the two expectations exist.

Convex functions take their relatively largest values on the "extreme" regions outside some interval, so X≤cxYX \le_{cx} YX≤cx​Y says YYY is more likely than XXX to take extreme values: YYY is "more variable" than XXX. Unlike the usual stochastic order, X≤cxYX \le_{cx} YX≤cx​Y forces the two means to agree (E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y], taking φ(x)=±x\varphi(x)=\pm xφ(x)=±x, both convex) — the convex order compares spread holding location fixed, exactly the mean-preserving-spread reading. Two equivalent forms make it tractable: comparing tail integrals of the survival/distribution functions (Theorem 3.A.1), and comparing mean absolute deviations E∣X−a∣E|X-a|E∣X−a∣ from every point aaa (Theorem 3.A.2).

Formalization targets

Goal: Strassen's martingale-coupling characterization (Theorem 3.A.4)

X≤cxY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=stX, Y^=stY, E[Y^∣X^]=X^ a.s.X \le_{cx} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y:\Omega''\to\mathbb{R}\text{ with } \hat X=_{st}X,\ \hat Y=_{st}Y,\ E[\hat Y\mid\hat X]=\hat X\text{ a.s.}X≤cx​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, E[Y^∣X^]=X^ a.s.

Furthermore, X^,Y^\hat X,\hat YX^,Y^ can be chosen so that the conditional law [Y^∣X^=x][\hat Y\mid\hat X=x][Y^∣X^=x] stochastically increases with xxx (in ≤st\le_{st}≤st​). This is the convex-order analogue of Chapter I's Theorem 1.A.1: instead of one variable dominating the other pathwise, YYY's copy is a fair (martingale) randomization of XXX's copy whose spread only grows in the conditioning value. The book itself calls the constructive direction "not easy to prove"; this mission states the theorem faithfully, including the "Furthermore" strengthening, without attempting a proof.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 3.A.1, the tail-integral characterizations: for X,YX,YX,Y with E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y], X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y iff ∫x∞Fˉ(u) du≤∫x∞Gˉ(u) du\int_x^\infty\bar F(u)\,du\le\int_x^\infty\bar G(u)\,du∫x∞​Fˉ(u)du≤∫x∞​Gˉ(u)du for all xxx, and iff ∫−∞xF(u) du≤∫−∞xG(u) du\int_{-\infty}^x F(u)\,du\le\int_{-\infty}^x G(u)\,du∫−∞x​F(u)du≤∫−∞x​G(u)du for all xxx — the two integrated forms the book's own sketch of Theorem 3.A.4 uses.
  • Theorem 3.A.2, the absolute-deviation characterization: for X,YX,YX,Y with E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y], X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y iff E∣X−a∣≤E∣Y−a∣E|X-a|\le E|Y-a|E∣X−a∣≤E∣Y−a∣ for every real aaa.
  • Theorem 3.A.12(d), closure under convolution: independent Xi≤cxYiX_i\le_{cx}Y_iXi​≤cx​Yi​ for i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m gives ∑iXi≤cx∑iYi\sum_i X_i \le_{cx} \sum_i Y_i∑i​Xi​≤cx​∑i​Yi​ — the convex-order analogue of Chapter I's Theorem 1.A.3(b).

Significance

The convex order is the standard way operations research and actuarial science formalize "more variable, same average": comparing the riskiness of two portfolios with matched expected return, the effect of aggregation or diversification on total claim size, or the value of information in a stochastic program (where a random variable degenerates to its mean exactly when the decision maker learns everything, the two extremes of a convex-order chain). Strassen's characterization is what turns "compare against every convex function" — an intractable universal quantifier — into a single explicit construction: exhibit one martingale coupling and the comparison is settled for every convex function at once, by Jensen's inequality. This is the technique behind bounding the effect of information or risk aggregation without checking convexity function by function, and the "Furthermore" monotonicity clause is what makes the coupling itself informative about how the spread grows with the conditioning variable, not merely that some fair coupling exists.

Formalizing this theorem fixes, for the whole book series, the exact shape every later coupling theorem for a variability-type order (the increasing convex/concave orders of Chapter IV via a submartingale, the multivariate convex order of Chapter VII) is expected to restate. No proof is attempted; the book's own remark that the constructive direction is "not easy" marks it as a genuine target for a future proof-bearing pass, not a formality.

Difficulty

The definitional trap mirrors Chapter I's: "for every convex φ\varphiφ" must be a genuine universal quantifier over Mathlib's own convexity predicate, with the existence of both expectations stated as an explicit integrability hypothesis inside the quantifier, not assumed globally or dropped. The coupling theorem doubles the difficulty of Theorem 1.A.1's: the conditional-expectation condition E[Y^∣X^]=X^E[\hat Y\mid\hat X]=\hat XE[Y^∣X^]=X^ a.s. is with respect to the σ\sigmaσ-algebra generated by X^\hat XX^, not an informal "expected value given X^\hat XX^", and must use the martingale API's own convention (Mathlib's condExp) precisely. The "Furthermore" clause compounds this: it is a claim about the regular conditional distribution of Y^\hat YY^ given X^=x\hat X=xX^=x for every point xxx, not merely the conditional expectation, and dropping it silently (as a "remark" rather than part of the theorem) would understate what Theorem 3.A.4 actually claims — the chapter brief flags this explicitly as a trap, and it is kept as a conjunct of the same existential witness here.

Formalization scope

Random variables are again measurable functions into R\mathbb{R}R from arbitrary measurable spaces, ConvexOrder μ ν X Y taking XXX on (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) and YYY on a separate (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν), matching Chapter I's convention and this series' own pattern. Convexity is Mathlib's ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ φ; "equality in law" is again ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib. The martingale condition uses Mathlib's conditional-expectation notation ρ[Ŷ | m] =ᵐ[ρ] X̂ with m the σ\sigmaσ-algebra MeasurableSpace.comap X̂ inferInstance generated by X̂ — the martingale API's own convention, not a hand-rolled gloss. The "Furthermore" clause uses Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.condDistrib, the regular conditional distribution kernel of Ŷ given X̂ (available since ℝ is a standard Borel space), and states "increasing in x in ≤st" via the kernel's survival function being monotone in x at every threshold — restating, locally to this chapter's namespace, the same tail-probability shape Chapter I's UsualOrder uses (drafts cannot import another mission's definitions, per this series' convention). A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: the martingale and monotonicity conjuncts are both kept as genuine content of the existential witness in the goal theorem, not weakened to a bare coupling or dropped as an optional remark.

This mission draws on no platform prior art (searches for "convex order", "Strassen", "martingale", "Jensen" returned only unrelated geometry/algorithm/physics results as of 2026-09-18); Mathlib's Probability/Martingale/* supplies the conditional-expectation and kernel machinery the coupling condition and its "Furthermore" clause are built from, but no platform theorem states the convex order or its coupling characterization itself. Reusable beyond this mission: the condExp/condDistrib-based martingale-coupling pattern is the shape Chapter IV's analogous submartingale coupling (Theorem 4.A.5) and Chapter VII's multivariate convex order (Theorem 7.A.1) are each expected to restate independently.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • M. Rothschild and J. E. Stiglitz, "Increasing risk: I. A definition", Journal of Economic Theory, 2(3), 1970, 225–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(70)90038-4
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders IV: The Increasing Convex and Increasing Concave OrdersTextbook

Comparing location and spread together

Chapter I's usual stochastic order compares "how large" two random variables tend to be; Chapter III's convex order compares "how spread out" they are, holding the mean fixed. Chapter IV's increasing convex and increasing concave orders combine the two: X≤icxYX \le_{icx} YX≤icx​Y says XXX is both smaller and less variable than YYY in a single comparison, without forcing equal means. These are the orders a decision-maker with risk-averse (concave-utility) or risk-loving (convex-cost) preferences actually uses to rank random outcomes, since expected utility is exactly an expectation of an increasing concave or convex function. This mission formalizes both orders and their coupling characterization: the submartingale/supermartingale analogue, one chapter over, of Chapter III's Strassen martingale coupling for the plain convex order.

The increasing convex and increasing concave orders

Let XXX be a real-valued random variable on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a real-valued random variable on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the increasing convex order, written X≤icxYX \le_{icx} YX≤icx​Y, if

E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every increasing convex φ:R→R for which the two expectations exist,E[\varphi(X)] \le E[\varphi(Y)] \quad \text{for every increasing convex } \varphi:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R} \text{ for which the two expectations exist,}E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every increasing convex φ:R→R for which the two expectations exist,

and smaller than YYY in the increasing concave order, X≤icvYX \le_{icv} YX≤icv​Y, if the same holds for every increasing concave φ\varphiφ. Taking φ(x)=x\varphi(x)=xφ(x)=x (increasing and both convex and concave) gives E[X]≤E[Y]E[X]\le E[Y]E[X]≤E[Y] under either order — unlike the convex order, no equality of means is forced. Two equivalent tail-integral characterizations (Theorem 4.A.2) make the orders tractable: X≤icxYX\le_{icx}YX≤icx​Y iff ∫x∞Fˉ(u) du≤∫x∞Gˉ(u) du\int_x^\infty \bar F(u)\,du \le \int_x^\infty \bar G(u)\,du∫x∞​Fˉ(u)du≤∫x∞​Gˉ(u)du for every xxx, and X≤icvYX\le_{icv}YX≤icv​Y iff ∫−∞xF(u) du≥∫−∞xG(u) du\int_{-\infty}^x F(u)\,du \ge \int_{-\infty}^x G(u)\,du∫−∞x​F(u)du≥∫−∞x​G(u)du for every xxx, where Fˉ,Gˉ\bar F,\bar GFˉ,Gˉ and F,GF,GF,G are the survival and distribution functions.

Formalization targets

Goal: the submartingale-coupling characterization (Theorem 4.A.5, increasing convex case)

X≤icxY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=stX, Y^=stY, E[Y^∣X^]≥X^ a.s.X \le_{icx} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y:\Omega''\to\mathbb{R}\text{ with } \hat X=_{st}X,\ \hat Y=_{st}Y,\ E[\hat Y\mid\hat X]\ge\hat X\text{ a.s.}X≤icx​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, E[Y^∣X^]≥X^ a.s.

Furthermore, X^,Y^\hat X,\hat YX^,Y^ can be chosen so that [Y^∣X^=x][\hat Y\mid\hat X=x][Y^∣X^=x] stochastically increases with xxx (in ≤st\le_{st}≤st​). This is the increasing-convex analogue of Chapter III's Theorem 3.A.4: instead of a martingale, {X^,Y^}\{\hat X,\hat Y\}{X^,Y^} need only be a submartingale — the copy of YYY is, conditionally on the copy of XXX, at least a fair randomization of it. The book states its proof is "similar to the proof of Theorem 3.A.4" and calls the constructive direction "not easy to prove"; this mission states the theorem faithfully, including the "Furthermore" strengthening, without attempting a proof.

Companion: the supermartingale-coupling characterization (Theorem 4.A.5, increasing concave case)

The same theorem's other bracketed case: X≤icvYX \le_{icv} YX≤icv​Y iff there exist X^,Y^\hat X,\hat YX^,Y^ on a common space with X^=stX\hat X=_{st}XX^=st​X, Y^=stY\hat Y=_{st}YY^=st​Y, and {Y^,X^}\{\hat Y,\hat X\}{Y^,X^} a supermartingale, E[X^∣Y^]≤Y^E[\hat X\mid\hat Y]\le\hat YE[X^∣Y^]≤Y^ a.s. — note the swapped roles of X^\hat XX^ and Y^\hat YY^ in the conditioning relative to the increasing-convex case, not merely a flipped inequality. Drafted as a separate Lean theorem from the goal (see Formalization scope), since the two conditioning structures are genuinely different predicates, not sign-flipped rewrites of one another.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 4.A.1, the duality relation: X≤icxY  ⟺  −X≥icv−YX\le_{icx}Y \iff -X\ge_{icv}-YX≤icx​Y⟺−X≥icv​−Y, and X≤icvY  ⟺  −X≥icx−YX\le_{icv}Y\iff -X\ge_{icx}-YX≤icv​Y⟺−X≥icx​−Y — the increasing-order analogue of Theorem 3.A.12(a)'s duality for the plain convex order.
  • Theorem 4.A.2, the tail-integral characterizations above, for integrable X,YX,YX,Y.
  • Theorem 4.A.8(d), closure under convolution: independent Xi≤icxYiX_i\le_{icx}Y_iXi​≤icx​Yi​ (resp. ≤icv\le_{icv}≤icv​) for i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m gives ∑iXi≤icx∑iYi\sum_i X_i \le_{icx} \sum_i Y_i∑i​Xi​≤icx​∑i​Yi​ (resp. ≤icv\le_{icv}≤icv​) — the increasing-order analogue of Chapter III's Theorem 3.A.12(d), which the book itself says "can be proven as in Theorem 3.A.12."

Significance

The increasing convex and concave orders are the natural language of expected-utility comparisons: a risk-averse agent with concave utility uuu prefers YYY to XXX exactly when X≤icvYX\le_{icv}YX≤icv​Y implies E[u(X)]≤E[u(Y)]E[u(X)]\le E[u(Y)]E[u(X)]≤E[u(Y)] for every increasing concave uuu — the order is defined precisely so that "every risk-averse agent with increasing utility agrees" collapses to one comparison. In operations research this underlies stochastic dominance of the second kind in portfolio and inventory models, and the increasing-convex order similarly formalizes "second-order stochastic dominance for costs" used to compare random cost/loss distributions under risk-loving or regret-averse preferences. The submartingale-coupling characterization is what turns the intractable "for every increasing convex φ\varphiφ" quantifier into a single explicit construction, exactly as Strassen's theorem does for the plain convex order — and, being the direct chapter-IV successor to Chapter III's coupling theorem in this series, it fixes the second data point for what a "coupling-characterization" mission in this book's series looks like when the order being characterized is not symmetric between the two variables' roles.

No platform prior art exists: GET /theorems?q=increasing+convex, q=increasing+concave, and q=submartingale return zero genuinely matching hits (the one submartingale hit, a bandit subgaussian maximal inequality, uses Doob's inequality for a concentration bound, not this order). This mission restates the increasing convex/concave orders and their coupling characterization as a foundational, self-contained pair of definitions, parallel in structure to Chunk 03's convex-order mission but independently drafted (drafts cannot import each other's Lean).

Difficulty

The chief formalization risk is the one this chapter's own brief flags explicitly: the book states Theorem 4.A.5 as a single statement with bracketed alternatives ("X≤icxYX\le_{icx}YX≤icx​Y [X≤icvYX\le_{icv}YX≤icv​Y] iff … {X^,Y^}\{\hat X,\hat Y\}{X^,Y^} is a submartingale [{Y^,X^}\{\hat Y,\hat X\}{Y^,X^} is a supermartingale] …"), and the two cases are not symmetric rewrites of each other — the conditioning variable in E[Ŷ|X̂]≥X̂ swaps to E[X̂|Ŷ]≤Ŷ in the concave case, not just a flipped inequality on the same conditioning. A Lean statement that tried to unify both cases with a single Or or a naive sign-flip would either conflate two different predicates or silently state the wrong condition for one of the two cases. The duality theorem (4.A.1) compounds this risk in the other direction: its content is exactly that ≤icx\le_{icx}≤icx​ and ≥icv\ge_{icv}≥icv​ are related (by negating the variables), so a formalization that makes this equivalence provable by unfolding definitions (rather than as a genuine ↔ between two independently-stated predicates) would trivialize the one theorem whose entire content is that relationship.

Formalization scope

Random variables are measurable functions into R\mathbb{R}R from arbitrary measurable spaces, matching this series' convention; IcxOrder μ ν X Y and IcvOrder μ ν X Y are drafted as two separate definitions (not one order parametrized by an Or of function classes), each quantifying over Monotone φ ∧ ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ φ (resp. ConcaveOn) with the two expectations' existence stated as explicit Integrable hypotheses inside the ∀, exactly as Chunk 03's ConvexOrder. Equality in law is ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib. The goal's submartingale condition uses Mathlib's conditional-expectation notation X̂ ≤ᵐ[ρ] ρ[Ŷ | m] with m the σ-algebra generated by X̂; its companion's supermartingale condition uses ρ[X̂ | m'] ≤ᵐ[ρ] Ŷ with m' generated by Ŷ instead — the conditioning variable is genuinely swapped between the two theorems, matching the book's own bracket ordering {X̂,Ŷ} vs. {Ŷ,X̂}. The "Furthermore" clause in both is kept (not dropped), via Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.condDistrib, restated as the relevant conditional-distribution kernel's survival function being monotone at every threshold — the same shape Chapter I's UsualOrder and Chunk 03's goal theorem use, necessarily restated locally since drafts cannot import another mission's definitions.

Theorem 4.A.1 (duality) and Theorem 4.A.8(d) (convolution closure) are each drafted as a single Lean theorem with two independent conjuncts (an ∧ of two ↔s, or of two implications), one per bracketed case, since the book states both cases as the two halves of one theorem sharing every hypothesis — this is not the same shape as the goal/companion split, where the two cases have genuinely different internal structure (the swapped conditioning) rather than a shared statement instantiated at two function classes. A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: stating Theorem 4.A.1's duality by relabeling IcvOrder as IcxOrder applied to negated arguments (making the equivalence a rfl or single simp unfolding) rather than keeping the two orders as independently-defined predicates whose relationship is the theorem's actual content.

This mission draws on no platform prior art (searches for "increasing convex", "increasing concave", and "submartingale" as of 2026-09-18 return zero genuine matches — the sole submartingale hit is an unrelated bandit concentration inequality via Doob's inequality). Reusable beyond this mission: the IcxOrder/IcvOrder definition pattern and the submartingale/supermartingale coupling shape parallel Chunk 03's ConvexOrder martingale-coupling pattern closely enough that a future chapter needing "coupling characterization of a location-and-spread order" (none of the remaining chapters currently in this series' first wave) could restate the same shape with minimal adaptation.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007, Chapter 4 (Univariate Monotone Convex and Related Orders), §4.A. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • This series' Chunk 03 (StochasticOrders.Convex), for the plain convex order and Strassen's martingale coupling this chapter's submartingale/supermartingale coupling directly generalizes.
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Supermodularity and Complementarity VI: The Core of a Convex GameTextbook

Motivation

A cooperative game with side payments models a set of economic agents who can form coalitions and split the proceeds. The central question is stability: is there a way to split the total payoff among all the players so that no subset of them would do better by breaking away and acting on its own? The set of such stable splits is the core, introduced by Gillies [1959] and studied extensively since (Shapley [1971], Shapley [1953]). Sharkey [1982c] surveys the core's role in the economics of natural monopoly, where "no coalition wants to secede" is exactly the condition that a cost-sharing scheme is defensible against any subgroup of customers.

The core of an arbitrary cooperative game can be empty — there may be no split that satisfies every coalition simultaneously — and even when nonempty it can be hard to exhibit a point in it, since it is cut out by 2n2^n2n linear inequalities. Shapley [1971] identified a large and economically natural class, the convex games (characteristic functions that are supermodular in the coalition), for which the core is always nonempty, and for which an explicit family of core points — one per ordering of the players — can be written down directly. This mission formalizes Shapley's theorem and its later sharpening: this book's central result of Chapter 5, together with a genuine converse (Moulin [1990], sharpening an observation of Sharkey [1982a]) and comparative-statics theorem (Topkis [1987]) showing how these core points move as the underlying economics changes.

Setting

Fix a finite set of players N={1,…,n}N = \{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. A characteristic function fff assigns a real number f(S)f(S)f(S) to every coalition S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, with f(∅)=0f(\emptyset) = 0f(∅)=0; f(S)f(S)f(S) is the net return a coalition SSS could earn on its own. The pair (N,f)(N,f)(N,f) is a cooperative game, and throughout this chapter fff is assumed superadditive: f(S′)+f(S′′)≤f(S′∪S′′)f(S') + f(S'') \le f(S' \cup S'')f(S′)+f(S′′)≤f(S′∪S′′) for disjoint S′,S′′S', S''S′,S′′. A payoff vector y∈RNy \in \mathbb{R}^Ny∈RN is feasible if ∑i∈Nyi=f(N)\sum_{i \in N} y_i = f(N)∑i∈N​yi​=f(N), and acceptable if ∑i∈Syi≥f(S)\sum_{i \in S} y_i \ge f(S)∑i∈S​yi​≥f(S) for every coalition SSS. The core is the set of payoff vectors that are both:

Core(N,f)={y∈RN:∑i∈Nyi=f(N) and f(S)≤∑i∈Syi ∀S⊆N}.\mathrm{Core}(N,f) = \Big\{ y \in \mathbb{R}^N : \sum_{i \in N} y_i = f(N) \text{ and } f(S) \le \sum_{i \in S} y_i \ \forall S \subseteq N \Big\}.Core(N,f)={y∈RN:i∈N∑​yi​=f(N) and f(S)≤i∈S∑​yi​ ∀S⊆N}.

(N,f)(N,f)(N,f) is a convex game if fff is supermodular on the Boolean lattice of coalitions: f(S)+f(S′)≤f(S∪S′)+f(S∩S′)f(S) + f(S') \le f(S \cup S') + f(S \cap S')f(S)+f(S′)≤f(S∪S′)+f(S∩S′) for all S,S′S, S'S,S′. ("Convex" is the game-theory literature's name for this supermodularity property; it has no relation to convexity of sets or of real functions, a collision the book itself flags.) Equivalently, by Theorem 2.6.1/2.6.4, a game is convex exactly when the marginal value f(S∪{i})−f(S)f(S \cup \{i\}) - f(S)f(S∪{i})−f(S) of any player iii to any coalition SSS not containing iii increases as SSS grows — the more players already committed to a project, the more valuable one more player is to it.

Given a permutation π\piπ of NNN, let Sπ(j)={π(1),…,π(j)}S_\pi(j) = \{\pi(1),\dots,\pi(j)\}Sπ​(j)={π(1),…,π(j)}. The greedy algorithm builds the payoff vector yπy^\piyπ by paying each player its marginal contribution when added in the order π\piπ: yπ(j)π=f(Sπ(j))−f(Sπ(j−1))y^\pi_{\pi(j)} = f(S_\pi(j)) - f(S_\pi(j-1))yπ(j)π​=f(Sπ​(j))−f(Sπ​(j−1)). The Shapley value pays player iii the average of yiπy^\pi_iyiπ​ over all n!n!n! permutations π\piπ, equivalently ∑S⊆N∖{i}∣S∣!(n−∣S∣−1)!n!(f(S∪{i})−f(S))\sum_{S \subseteq N\setminus\{i\}} \frac{|S|!(n-|S|-1)!}{n!}(f(S\cup\{i\}) - f(S))∑S⊆N∖{i}​n!∣S∣!(n−∣S∣−1)!​(f(S∪{i})−f(S)).

A core is large if every acceptable payoff vector is dominated, coordinatewise, by one in the core; a subgame (N′,f)(N',f)(N′,f) restricts fff to subsets of N′⊆NN' \subseteq NN′⊆N; a core is totally large if the core of every subgame is large.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 5.2.1 (Shapley [1971])

if (N,f) is a convex game, then for every permutation π, yπ∈Core(N,f);Core(N,f)≠∅;Shapley value∈Core(N,f).\text{if } (N,f) \text{ is a convex game, then for every permutation } \pi,\ y^\pi \in \mathrm{Core}(N,f); \quad \mathrm{Core}(N,f) \ne \emptyset; \quad \text{Shapley value} \in \mathrm{Core}(N,f).if (N,f) is a convex game, then for every permutation π, yπ∈Core(N,f);Core(N,f)=∅;Shapley value∈Core(N,f).

The weakest stable statement here is already the union of these three claims: nonemptiness of the core (b) is a formal consequence of (a) for any single permutation, and (c) is a genuinely separate fact about the average of the yπy^\piyπ's, not implied by (a) and (b) alone.

Milestones

  • Lemma 5.2.1(a): ∑i∈Sπ(j)yiπ=f(Sπ(j))\sum_{i \in S_\pi(j)} y^\pi_i = f(S_\pi(j))∑i∈Sπ​(j)​yiπ​=f(Sπ​(j)) for every j=1,…,nj = 1,\dots,nj=1,…,n — the partial-sum identity the goal's proof of acceptability is built on.
  • Theorem 5.2.6 (Moulin [1990]): a cooperative game is convex if and only if its core is totally large — the converse direction that a large core alone (Theorem 5.2.1's easy corollary) does not give.
  • Theorem 5.2.7(a,b) (Topkis [1987]): if the characteristic function ftf^tft of a family of games has increasing differences in a parameter ttt (a complementary parameter), the greedy payoff vector and the Shapley value both increase in ttt.

Significance

Theorem 5.2.1 is the reason convex games are the tractable case of cooperative game theory: it turns an existence question about 2n2^n2n linear inequalities into an explicit construction (any ordering of the players gives a point in the core), and it identifies the Shapley value — an axiomatically motivated but a priori only feasible payoff rule — as one that always respects every coalition's participation constraint on this class. Theorem 5.2.6 shows this is not an accident of the sufficient condition: total largeness of the core is a genuine characterization of convexity, so "does every subgame's core dominate every acceptable vector" is an equivalent, purely core-theoretic way to test convexity. Theorem 5.2.7 gives the comparative statics that make convex games useful in applied models (Chapter 5's later sections build monopoly, surplus sharing, and procurement games on exactly this apparatus): as a game's characteristic function improves in a complementary way with some parameter (a price, a technology level, a capacity), every player's greedy payoff and Shapley value improve monotonically, with no separate argument needed for each application.

Formalizing this mission produces, for the first time on the platform, machine-checked statements of the core, convex games, the greedy algorithm and the Shapley value — definitions that later missions in this series's own polyhedral-structure sections, and any future cooperative-game-theory mission, can reuse rather than re-derive. All three results already have a complete proof in the literature; this mission's remaining work is formalizing that known argument, not any open mathematics.

Difficulty

The routine first idea — check acceptability for the greedy vector one subset at a time using only the definition of supermodularity — does not directly work: Theorem 5.2.1(a)'s proof needs to compare a subset S′S'S′ against the initial coalitions Sπ(j)S_\pi(j)Sπ​(j) built by the particular permutation π\piπ, splitting S′S'S′ by the first and last time one of its elements appears in π\piπ's order and applying supermodularity along the resulting chain, not a single inequality. Theorem 5.2.6's converse direction is the harder half: showing a totally large core forces supermodularity requires constructing an auxiliary characteristic function g(S)=max⁡S⊆S′⊆N(f(S′)−∑i∈S′yi′′)g(S) = \max_{S \subseteq S' \subseteq N} \big(f(S') - \sum_{i \in S'} y''_i\big)g(S)=maxS⊆S′⊆N​(f(S′)−∑i∈S′​yi′′​) from an arbitrary acceptable vector y′′y''y′′ and showing ggg is itself supermodular (via Theorem 2.6.4 and Theorem 2.7.6, results from the earlier monotone-comparative-statics chapter this mission depends on) before the argument closes.

Formalization scope

Players are modeled as Fin n and a characteristic function as f : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ; a payoff vector is y : Fin n → ℝ, and the core's feasibility and acceptability conditions are stated with respect to Finset.univ (the whole player set) or a coalition U : Finset (Fin n) for a subgame, never approximated by a finite sample of coalitions or by feasibility alone — the acceptability condition genuinely quantifies over every subset. The Shapley value's coefficient is the exact rational weight S.card.factorial * (n - S.card - 1).factorial / n.factorial cast to ℝ, not a placeholder constant. The greedy algorithm's InitialCoalition σ j uses Lean's 0-indexed Equiv.Perm (Fin n) throughout, with the book's 1-indexed Sπ(j)S_\pi(j)Sπ​(j) absorbed into the definition rather than into the index j, so the definition and the goal read the same j consistently. Theorem 5.2.7(c), which needs Theorem 5.2.4's convex-combination-of-extreme-points machinery beyond this section, is out of scope for this mission.

A trivializing formalization would state acceptability only on singleton coalitions, or would let n = 0/an empty player set stand in for the general case; neither is used here — every Core/IsLargeCore statement quantifies over arbitrary subsets, and none of the theorems restrict n.

This mission reuses Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn and Supermodularity.Monotonicity.IncreasingDifferencesOn from this series's chunk II (02-monotonicity) rather than restating supermodularity or increasing differences for coalitions from scratch. InitialCoalition, Core, GreedyPayoff, IsConvexGame, IsLargeCore, IsTotallyLargeCore and ShapleyValue are new to this mission and reusable by any later mission on cooperative games, polymatroids, or the polyhedral structure of the core (Section 5.2.3 of this chapter). Contributions completing the sorrys — Theorem 5.2.1(a)'s chain-splitting argument, Theorem 5.2.6's auxiliary-function construction, and Theorem 5.2.7(a,b)'s direct comparison — are all welcome.

Selected references

  • L. S. Shapley, "Cores of convex games," International Journal of Game Theory, 1(1), 1971, 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753431
  • L. S. Shapley, "A value for n-person games," in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Princeton University Press, 1953, 307–317.
  • H. Moulin, "Cores and large cores when population varies," International Journal of Game Theory, 19(3), 1990, 219–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766437
  • W. W. Sharkey, "Cooperative games with large cores," International Journal of Game Theory, 11(3-4), 1982, 175–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766193
  • D. M. Topkis, "Activity optimization games with complementarity," European Journal of Operational Research, 28(3), 1987, 358–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(87)90232-5
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 2011, Chapter 5. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Stochastic Orders V: The Laplace Transform OrderTextbook

Comparing distributions by their Laplace transforms

Many of the orders in Shaked and Shanthikumar's Stochastic Orders (Springer, 2007) are built by fixing a class of test functions φ\varphiφ and declaring X≤YX \le YX≤Y whenever E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]E[\varphi(X)] \le E[\varphi(Y)]E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)] for every φ\varphiφ in that class: all increasing functions give the usual stochastic order, all convex functions give the convex order. This mission formalizes the order obtained from the single function φs(x)=−e−sx\varphi_s(x) = -e^{-sx}φs​(x)=−e−sx, s>0s > 0s>0 — the Laplace transform order — together with its principal alternative characterization and three of its closure properties. Unlike almost every other order in the book, this one has essentially no dependence on material from earlier chapters, which is why it is a natural standalone mission.

The Laplace transform order

Let XXX be a real-valued random variable on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a real-valued random variable on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the Laplace transform order, written X≤LtYX \le_{Lt} YX≤Lt​Y, if

E[e−sX]≥E[e−sY]for every s>0.E[e^{-sX}] \ge E[e^{-sY}] \quad \text{for every } s > 0.E[e−sX]≥E[e−sY]for every s>0.

The order is meant for nonnegative random variables: the book's own standing convention for the whole of §5.A is that every random variable mentioned is nonnegative, since otherwise E[e−sX]E[e^{-sX}]E[e−sX] need not even be finite. Every theorem below carries that hypothesis explicitly rather than folding it into the order's own definition, so the definition itself is stated exactly as broadly as the book's raw equation (5.A.1) is — a comparison of two expectations, for two random variables that need not share a probability space, since ≤Lt\le_{Lt}≤Lt​ is a comparison of distributions.

A second definition supports one of the milestones: a function φ:[0,∞)→R\varphi : [0,\infty) \to \mathbb{R}φ:[0,∞)→R is completely monotone if all its derivatives exist and (−1)nφ(n)(x)≥0(-1)^n\varphi^{(n)}(x) \ge 0(−1)nφ(n)(x)≥0 for every x>0x > 0x>0 and every n=0,1,2,…n = 0, 1, 2, \dotsn=0,1,2,…. Every φs(x)=e−sx\varphi_s(x) = e^{-sx}φs​(x)=e−sx, s>0s > 0s>0, is completely monotone, which is what connects the raw definition of ≤Lt\le_{Lt}≤Lt​ to its function-class characterization below.

Formalization targets

Goal: the integrated-survival-function characterization (Theorem 5.A.1)

X≤LtY  ⟺  ∫0∞e−sxFˉ(x) dx≤∫0∞e−sxGˉ(x) dxfor every s>0,X \le_{Lt} Y \iff \int_0^\infty e^{-sx}\bar F(x)\,dx \le \int_0^\infty e^{-sx}\bar G(x)\,dx \quad \text{for every } s > 0,X≤Lt​Y⟺∫0∞​e−sxFˉ(x)dx≤∫0∞​e−sxGˉ(x)dxfor every s>0,

where Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}\bar F(x) = P\{X>x\}Fˉ(x)=P{X>x} and Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x}\bar G(x) = P\{Y>x\}Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x} are the survival functions of XXX and YYY. This is the book's principal restatement of the order, obtained from the identity ∫0∞e−sxFˉ(x) dx=s−1(1−E[e−sX])\int_0^\infty e^{-sx}\bar F(x)\,dx = s^{-1}(1-E[e^{-sX}])∫0∞​e−sxFˉ(x)dx=s−1(1−E[e−sX]): instead of comparing the raw Laplace transforms of XXX and YYY themselves, it compares the Laplace transforms of their survival functions, weighted the same way. It is the natural goal for a standalone chapter mission: the chapter's own defining equation plus one elementary identity is exactly the book's own proof, and it is the form of the order that the chapter's closure properties are stated against.

Supporting milestones

  • Eq. (5.A.5), the mean inequality: X≤LtY  ⟹  E[X]≤E[Y]X \le_{Lt} Y \implies E[X] \le E[Y]X≤Lt​Y⟹E[X]≤E[Y], provided the expectations exist — obtained by dividing the defining inequality by sss and letting s↓0s \downarrow 0s↓0.
  • Theorem 5.A.3, the function-class characterization: X≤LtYX \le_{Lt} YX≤Lt​Y iff E[φ(X)]≥E[φ(Y)]E[\varphi(X)] \ge E[\varphi(Y)]E[φ(X)]≥E[φ(Y)] for every completely monotone φ\varphiφ, provided the expectations exist — the order's analogue of "all increasing functions" for ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ or "all convex functions" for ≤cx\le_{cx}≤cx​.
  • Theorem 5.A.7(a), closure under functions with a completely monotone derivative: X≤LtYX \le_{Lt} YX≤Lt​Y and ggg positive with g′g'g′ completely monotone gives g(X)≤Ltg(Y)g(X) \le_{Lt} g(Y)g(X)≤Lt​g(Y).
  • Theorem 5.A.7(d), the convolution corollary: independent Xi≤LtYiX_i \le_{Lt} Y_iXi​≤Lt​Yi​, i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m, gives ∑iXi≤Lt∑iYi\sum_i X_i \le_{Lt} \sum_i Y_i∑i​Xi​≤Lt​∑i​Yi​.

Significance

The Laplace transform order is the natural comparison for nonnegative quantities that arise as sums or mixtures of exponential-type random variables — waiting times, workloads, service completion times — precisely because it is preserved under convolution (Theorem 5.A.7(d)) and under the broad class of transformations with a completely monotone derivative (Theorem 5.A.7(a)), which includes every concave power xpx^pxp, 0<p≤10<p\le 10<p≤1. It sits strictly between the convex-type orders and weaker moment comparisons: Eq. (5.A.5) shows it implies ordered means, but (unlike ≤cx\le_{cx}≤cx​) it does not require equal means, and (unlike ≤icx\le_{icx}≤icx​) it is not implied by a pointwise comparison of integrated tails alone — it is its own, genuinely different order, useful whenever a modeler's comparison naturally arises through Laplace-transform (equivalently, moment-generating-function-at- negative-argument) calculations rather than through a coupling or a tail-probability argument. Theorem 5.A.3's function-class form is the bridge that lets the order be verified either way: by a single-parameter family of exponential test functions, or by the full class of completely monotone functions of which they are the extreme rays.

Difficulty

The chapter's own first warning applies directly: the order's every characterization requires X,Y≥0X,Y \ge 0X,Y≥0, and dropping that hypothesis anywhere — as opposed to carrying it explicitly on each theorem, per this mission's convention — would silently change which statements are even well-posed, since E[e−sX]E[e^{-sX}]E[e−sX] can diverge for XXX unbounded below. The quantifier "∀s>0\forall s > 0∀s>0" in both the raw definition and Theorem 5.A.1 ranges over the whole positive half-line, not a bounded or discretized set of test points; narrowing it would produce a strictly weaker order. In CompletelyMonotone, the phrase "all its derivatives exist" is a genuine hypothesis, not a formality: stating only the sign condition on iteratedDeriv n φ x without also requiring φ to be C^∞ would let the definition be satisfied vacuously wherever a derivative fails to exist (a classic junk-value trap), which is why the mission's definition bundles smoothness explicitly. Theorem 5.A.7(a)'s "ggg positive" is a hypothesis on ggg's values at the nonnegative reals that XXX and YYY actually take, not on all of R\mathbb{R}R, and must not be silently strengthened to "ggg everywhere positive" or weakened to "ggg nonnegative" (which would let ggg vanish and break the order's need for e−sg(X)e^{-sg(X)}e−sg(X) to be well-behaved).

Formalization scope

LaplaceOrder μ ν X Y takes X:Ω→RX : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}X:Ω→R on (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) and Y:Ω′→RY : \Omega' \to \mathbb{R}Y:Ω′→R on a separate (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν), matching the series' convention (e.g. StochasticOrders.Usual.UsualOrder) that the order compares distributions, not jointly defined variables. Nonnegativity of XXX and YYY is an explicit hypothesis ∀ ω, 0 ≤ X ω / ∀ ω, 0 ≤ Y ω on every theorem, never built into LaplaceOrder itself. CompletelyMonotone φ is ContDiff ℝ ⊤ φ ∧ ∀ n x, 0 < x → 0 ≤ (-1)^n * iteratedDeriv n φ x — the smoothness conjunct guards the junk-value trap described above. The survival function Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}\bar F(x) = P\{X>x\}Fˉ(x)=P{X>x} in the goal theorem is formalized inline as (μ {ω | x < X ω}).toReal, valid since μ is a probability measure (so the underlying ENNReal value is finite and the conversion to ℝ loses no information); the integral ∫0∞\int_0^\infty∫0∞​ is Bochner integration over Set.Ici (0 : ℝ). "Provided the expectations exist" becomes explicit Integrable hypotheses per statement (on XXX, YYY themselves for Eq. 5.A.5; on φ∘X\varphi \circ Xφ∘X, φ∘Y\varphi \circ Yφ∘Y for each φ\varphiφ in Theorem 5.A.3), rather than a blanket integrability assumption that would understate which expectations the book actually needs. Independence in the convolution corollary is ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun, one family per side, as in Chunk 01's own convolution corollary. A trivializing formalization is ruled out: ≤Lt\le_{Lt}≤Lt​ is not restated as a comparison of one moment or of the raw random variables' means, and the "universal function class" of Theorem 5.A.3 is exactly the completely monotone functions the book names, not a fixed finite subfamily or a narrowed subclass (e.g. only the exponentials themselves, which would make Theorem 5.A.3 a restatement of the definition rather than its own theorem).

This mission draws on no platform prior art: repeated searches for "Laplace transform" and "completely monotone" during this session return only unrelated analytic-number-theory formalizations (a Langlands–Tunnell Laplace–Mellin transform identity) and no hits at all, respectively — confirming BRIEF.md's expectation that this subarea is untouched on the platform. It is one of nine missions in a series covering the whole book; per the series' own convention, its definitions are not imported by any other chapter's mission, and it does not import any other chapter's definitions in turn (the chapter itself has essentially no cross-chapter dependence, the reason it was flagged as the series' most self-contained chunk).

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Stochastic Orders VI: The Multivariate Stochastic OrderTextbook

From "larger" to "larger in every direction"

Chapter I's usual stochastic order compares two real-valued random variables by "how large" they tend to be. Chapter VI lifts the same idea to random vectors: XXX is smaller than YYY in the usual multivariate stochastic order if XXX is less likely than YYY to land in any upper set of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn — any region defined by "at least this large in every coordinate." This mission formalizes that order and its two founding characterizations: a coupling theorem (the direct nnn-dimensional generalization of Chapter I's own coupling theorem) and a common-source representation, plus two closure properties that make the order usable in practice.

The usual multivariate stochastic order

Let XXX be a random vector taking values in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a random vector taking values in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the usual multivariate stochastic order, written X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y, if

P{X∈U}≤P{Y∈U}for every upper set U⊆Rn,P\{X\in U\} \le P\{Y\in U\} \quad \text{for every upper set } U\subseteq\mathbb{R}^n,P{X∈U}≤P{Y∈U}for every upper set U⊆Rn,

where an upper set is one closed upward under the coordinatewise partial order on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn (x≤yx\le yx≤y iff xi≤yix_i\le y_ixi​≤yi​ for every iii). Equivalently, X≤stYX\le_{st}YX≤st​Y iff E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]E[\varphi(X)]\le E[\varphi(Y)]E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)] for every increasing φ:Rn→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}φ:Rn→R (increasing with respect to that same coordinatewise order) for which the two expectations exist — the form this mission drafts as the definition, exactly parallel to the univariate order's own equivalent form.

Formalization targets

Goal: the coupling characterization (Theorem 6.B.1)

X≤stY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→Rn with X^=stX, Y^=stY, P{X^≤Y^}=1.X \le_{st} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y:\Omega''\to\mathbb{R}^n\text{ with } \hat X=_{st}X,\ \hat Y=_{st}Y,\ P\{\hat X\le\hat Y\}=1.X≤st​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→Rn with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, P{X^≤Y^}=1.

This is the direct nnn-dimensional generalization of Chunk 01's Theorem 1.A.1: a joint law on the random vectors' shared space realizing X≤stYX\le_{st}YX≤st​Y as an almost-sure coordinatewise inequality between copies. The book does not give this direction's proof here (an explicit construction appears later, in a special case irrelevant to a statements-only mission), and the claim is exactly as citable either way.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 6.B.2, the common-source restatement: X≤stYX\le_{st}YX≤st​Y iff there is a real-valued random variable ZZZ and Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn-valued functions ψ1≤ψ2\psi_1\le\psi_2ψ1​≤ψ2​ (coordinatewise, at every z∈Rz\in\mathbb{R}z∈R) with X=stψ1(Z)X=_{st}\psi_1(Z)X=st​ψ1​(Z), Y=stψ2(Z)Y=_{st}\psi_2(Z)Y=st​ψ2​(Z) — the multivariate analogue of Theorem 1.A.2, an immediate restatement of the goal.
  • Theorem 6.B.16(b), closure under conjunctions: independent Xi≤stYiX_i\le_{st}Y_iXi​≤st​Yi​ (i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m) give ψ(X1,…,Xm)≤stψ(Y1,…,Ym)\psi(X_1,\dots,X_m)\le_{st}\psi(Y_1,\dots,Y_m)ψ(X1​,…,Xm​)≤st​ψ(Y1​,…,Ym​) for any increasing ψ:Rk→R\psi:\mathbb{R}^k\to\mathbb{R}ψ:Rk→R — note the codomain R\mathbb{R}R, so this closure conclusion is itself the univariate order applied to vector-valued inputs. Specializing ψ\psiψ to a coordinatewise sum gives closure under convolutions.
  • Theorem 6.B.16(c), closure under marginalization: X≤stYX\le_{st}YX≤st​Y implies XI≤stYIX_I\le_{st}Y_IXI​≤st​YI​ for every sub-index set I⊆{1,…,n}I\subseteq\{1,\dots,n\}I⊆{1,…,n} — a special case of part (b), included separately for its own simple, widely-used content.

Significance

The usual multivariate stochastic order is the natural tool for comparing random vectors — costs, resource-usage profiles, portfolio returns — that must be ranked simultaneously across several coordinates rather than reduced to a single scalar summary first. It underlies simulation comparisons (via the coupling and common-source characterizations, both constructive), reliability comparisons of multi-component systems (whose component lifetimes are naturally vector-valued), and comparative-statics arguments in queueing and inventory models with several state variables. The closure properties are what make the order compositional: conjunction closure says a vector-by-vector comparison of independent inputs survives any coordinatewise-increasing post-processing, and marginalization closure says a joint comparison restricts consistently to any sub-collection of coordinates — together they are the two properties an analyst reaches for first when reducing a multivariate comparison to a more tractable one.

No platform prior art exists: GET /theorems?q=stochastic+order and q=coupling return zero genuine hits (checked at this book's triage time, re-confirmed this session). This mission restates the usual multivariate stochastic order and its two founding theorems as a self-contained foundation, in the same spirit as Chunk 01's univariate mission but independently drafted, since drafts cannot import each other's Lean.

Difficulty

The chief formalization risk this chapter's own brief flags is conflating "increasing" for φ:Rn→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}φ:Rn→R with some order other than the coordinatewise one (a total order via a fixed embedding, or a lexicographic order): the book's order on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is always the componentwise partial order, and Mathlib gives Fin n → ℝ exactly that order by default (its Pi/product order), so Monotone φ for φ : (Fin n → ℝ) → ℝ already means what the book means with no extra predicate to get wrong — but it would be easy to instead encode ℝ^n-valued objects some other way (e.g. a fixed linear functional into ℝ) that silently swaps in a different, weaker order. The second risk is Theorem 6.B.16(b)'s literal codomain: the book states ψ:Rk→R\psi:\mathbb{R}^k\to\mathbb{R}ψ:Rk→R (scalar), so the closure conclusion is a genuinely univariate stochastic-order statement about ψ\psiψ applied to vector inputs, not a vector-to-vector closure (that is part (a), not drafted here) — stating it as a multivariate conclusion by mistake would silently strengthen a theorem the book does not claim.

Formalization scope

Random vectors are drafted as functions into Fin n → ℝ from arbitrary measurable spaces, which inherit Mathlib's default coordinatewise (Pi) order — the same order the book uses throughout this chapter, requiring no separate order predicate. MultivariateOrder μ ν X Y quantifies over φ : (Fin n → ℝ) → ℝ with Monotone φ in that order and Integrable (φ ∘ X) μ/Integrable (φ ∘ Y) ν stated inside the ∀, exactly matching "for which the expectations exist." Equality in law is ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib. Theorem 6.B.2's random variable ZZZ is drafted as R\mathbb{R}R-valued specifically (not an arbitrary-type common source), matching the book's own "for all z∈Rz\in\mathbb{R}z∈R" quantification exactly.

Theorem 6.B.16(b) is drafted for a common dimension nnn across all Xi,YiX_i,Y_iXi​,Yi​ rather than the book's per-iii dimension kik_iki​: the concatenated input then lives in Fin m → Fin n → ℝ (nested Pi types, carrying the coordinatewise order on Rmn\mathbb{R}^{mn}Rmn exactly as needed), avoiding a dependent-sum concatenation of vectors of genuinely different lengths that a mission of this size does not justify. This is the "closed under convolutions" special case the book itself names as a corollary of the general statement, not a different claim — but it is a genuine restriction of scope, recorded here rather than silently applied, and the general varying-dimension statement is left for a future pass (see STATUS.md). The theorem's conclusion is stated as the univariate order's own defining inequality on ℝ (∀ x, μ {ω | x < ψ(X_∙ ω)} ≤ ν {ω | x < ψ(Y_∙ ω)}), restated locally rather than importing Chunk 01's UsualOrder, since drafts cannot import another mission's definitions. Theorem 6.B.16(c)'s sub-index set I⊆{1,…,n}I\subseteq\{1,\dots,n\}I⊆{1,…,n} of size kkk is encoded as an injective reindexing r : Fin k → Fin n, with XI,YIX_I,Y_IXI​,YI​ drafted as X, Y precomposed coordinatewise with r, matching the book's own subvector notation (6.A.1) exactly.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: drafting MultivariateOrder with an order on Fin n → ℝ other than the coordinatewise one (for instance, a fixed linear functional collapsing the vector to a scalar and reusing the univariate order), which would silently state a different, generally weaker order under the same name; and drafting Theorem 6.B.16(b)'s conclusion with a vector-valued (rather than the book's literal scalar-valued) ψ\psiψ, which would silently strengthen a theorem the book states only for real-valued ψ\psiψ. This mission draws on no platform prior art (searches for "stochastic order" and "coupling" as of 2026-09-18 return zero genuine matches). Reusable beyond this mission: the MultivariateOrder definition pattern and its coupling/common-source characterization parallel Chunk 01's univariate pair closely enough that a future chapter needing a multivariate order's own coupling theorem (Chapter VII's multivariate convex order is the direct next instance in this series) could restate the same shape with minimal adaptation.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007, Chapter 6 (Multivariate Stochastic Orders), §6.A–6.B. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • This series' Chunk 01 (StochasticOrders.Usual), for the univariate usual stochastic order and its coupling/common-source characterizations this chapter directly generalizes.
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Stochastic Orders VII: The Multivariate Convex OrderTextbook

From "more spread out" to "more spread out in every direction"

Chapter III's convex order compares two real-valued random variables by "how spread out" they are, holding the mean fixed. Chapter VII lifts the same idea to random vectors: XXX is smaller than YYY in the multivariate convex order if every convex function of XXX has smaller expectation than the same function of YYY. This mission formalizes that order, its increasing-convex companion, and their martingale-coupling characterizations — the direct nnn-dimensional generalizations of Chunk 03's and Chunk 04's own goal theorems — plus a cheap mean-equality corollary and a simple standalone scaling result.

The multivariate convex and increasing convex orders

Let XXX be a random vector taking values in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn on (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and YYY a random vector taking values in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn on (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the multivariate convex order, X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y, if

E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every convex φ:Rn→R for which the two expectations exist,E[\varphi(X)] \le E[\varphi(Y)] \quad \text{for every convex } \varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R} \text{ for which the two expectations exist},E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]for every convex φ:Rn→R for which the two expectations exist,

and smaller than YYY in the increasing convex order, X≤icxYX\le_{icx}YX≤icx​Y, if the same holds for every φ\varphiφ that is both increasing (coordinatewise) and convex. Since each coordinate projection φi(x)=xi\varphi_i(x)=x_iφi​(x)=xi​ and its negation are both convex, X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y forces E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y]E[X]=E[Y] componentwise (Eq. 7.A.5) — unlike ≤icx\le_{icx}≤icx​, which only forces E[X]≤E[Y]E[X]\le E[Y]E[X]≤E[Y].

Formalization targets

Goal: the martingale-coupling characterization (Theorem 7.A.1)

X≤cxY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→Rn with X^=stX, Y^=stY, E[Y^∣X^]=X^ a.s.X \le_{cx} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y:\Omega''\to\mathbb{R}^n\text{ with } \hat X=_{st}X,\ \hat Y=_{st}Y,\ E[\hat Y\mid\hat X]=\hat X\text{ a.s.}X≤cx​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→Rn with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, E[Y^∣X^]=X^ a.s.

The direct nnn-dimensional generalization of Theorem 3.A.4 (Strassen's martingale coupling, Chunk 03's own goal theorem): a joint law on a common probability space realizing X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y as a genuine martingale pairing between copies of XXX and YYY. The book states no further "Furthermore" strengthening here, unlike the univariate and increasing-convex cases.

Companion: the submartingale-coupling characterization (Theorem 7.A.2, increasing convex case)

X≤icxYX\le_{icx}YX≤icx​Y iff there exist X^,Y^\hat X,\hat YX^,Y^ on a common space with X^=stX\hat X=_{st}XX^=st​X, Y^=stY\hat Y=_{st}YY^=st​Y, and {X^,Y^}\{\hat X,\hat Y\}{X^,Y^} a submartingale, E[Y^∣X^]≥X^E[\hat Y\mid\hat X]\ge\hat XE[Y^∣X^]≥X^ a.s. — the direct generalization of Theorem 4.A.5's increasing-convex case (Chunk 04's own goal theorem), proved by the book's own cross-reference "by essentially the same method" as the goal. The book's bracketed increasing-concave companion is a genuinely separate statement (swapped conditioning) and is not drafted here for budget (see STATUS.md).

Supporting milestones

  • Eq. (7.A.5), the mean-equality corollary: X≤cxY  ⟹  E[X]=E[Y]X\le_{cx}Y\implies E[X]=E[Y]X≤cx​Y⟹E[X]=E[Y] (componentwise), provided the expectations exist — a one-line consequence of ConvexOrder's own defining quantifier applied to ±\pm± each coordinate projection.
  • Theorem 7.A.9, a simple standalone application: an independent, mean-one random scale factor UUU always makes a random vector larger in the convex order, X≤cxUXX\le_{cx}UXX≤cx​UX.

Significance

The multivariate convex order is the natural tool for comparing the variability of random vectors — portfolios of returns, multi-resource cost vectors, correlated component lifetimes — in a way that respects every direction of the space simultaneously rather than coordinate by coordinate. Its martingale-coupling characterization is the same tool that makes Strassen's theorem useful in the univariate case: it turns the intractable "for every convex φ:Rn→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}φ:Rn→R" quantifier into a single explicit joint construction, and because it generalizes directly (the book's own proof of Theorem 7.A.4, not drafted here, applies the univariate Theorem 3.A.4 coordinate by coordinate to build the multivariate coupling), it is the natural second data point — after Chunk 03's univariate case and Chunk 06's usual-order case — for what a "coupling-characterization" mission in this book's series looks like once both the order and the dimension vary. Theorem 7.A.9's scaling result is a compact, self-contained illustration of how the order behaves under a common operation (randomized scaling) that appears throughout the book's later risk and insurance examples.

No platform prior art exists: GET /theorems?q=convex+order and q=martingale return only false positives (checked at this book's triage time, re-confirmed this session). This mission restates the multivariate convex and increasing convex orders and their coupling characterizations as a self-contained pair, parallel in structure to Chunks 03 and 04's univariate missions but independently drafted, since drafts cannot import each other's Lean.

Difficulty

The chief formalization risk this chapter's own brief flags is confusing "convex" for φ:Rn→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}φ:Rn→R (ordinary convexity, Mathlib's ConvexOn) with a coordinatewise or lattice-based notion — in particular, with Chunk 09's supermodular functions, a different and weaker condition. A second risk is the "increasing" half of IcxOrder: unlike convexity, "increasing" genuinely is the coordinatewise order (matching Chunk 06's convention), so IcxOrder mixes two different kinds of predicate on the same φ (Monotone in the coordinatewise sense, ConvexOn in the ordinary sense) and getting either one wrong silently changes which order is being stated. A third risk, specific to Theorem 7.A.2, is the bracketed icx/icv alternative: as in Chunk 04, the two cases are not symmetric rewrites of each other (the conditioning variable swaps), so a Lean statement conflating them with Or would misstate one case — this mission avoids the risk by drafting only the increasing-convex case and recording the omission explicitly rather than attempting an unsound unification.

Formalization scope

Random vectors are drafted as functions into Fin n → ℝ from arbitrary measurable spaces. ConvexOrder μ ν X Y quantifies over φ : (Fin n → ℝ) → ℝ with ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ φ (ordinary convexity) and Integrable (φ ∘ X) μ/Integrable (φ ∘ Y) ν inside the ∀; IcxOrder adds Monotone φ in Mathlib's default coordinatewise (Pi) order on Fin n → ℝ — the same order Chunk 06's MultivariateOrder uses — as a genuinely separate definition from ConvexOrder, not one derived from the other, since Theorem 7.A.12 (not drafted here) relates the two nontrivially and conflating them would trivialize such a relationship. Equality in law is ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib; the martingale/submartingale conditions use Mathlib's conditional-expectation notation ρ[Ŷ | m] =ᵐ[ρ] X̂ (resp. X̂ ≤ᵐ[ρ] ρ[Ŷ | m]) with m generated by X̂, here genuinely Fin n → ℝ-valued (well-defined since Fin n → ℝ is a finite-dimensional, hence complete, normed space over ℝ) — restated locally rather than imported from Chunks 03/06, since drafts cannot import another mission's definitions. Theorem 7.A.9's scaling U·X is Mathlib's scalar multiplication on the ℝ-module Fin n → ℝ.

Two deliberate scope restrictions, recorded rather than silently applied: (1) Theorem 7.A.2 is drafted only for the increasing-convex case, per this chapter's own pitfall 3 (the icv companion's swapped conditioning structure is a genuinely different predicate, not a sign-flipped rewrite, and budget did not justify a fourth definition/theorem pair to draft it separately, unlike Chunk 04 which had budget for both cases of its analogous theorem); (2) Theorem 7.A.5 through 7.A.8's closure properties (mixtures, convolutions, weak limits, the random-sum generalization) are left out entirely — each needs conditional-distribution or convergence-in-distribution machinery this mission's four items do not otherwise require, and none is on the goal's own attack chain.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: drafting IcxOrder by deriving it from ConvexOrder and a separate monotonicity wrapper in a way that makes their relationship (Theorem 7.A.12: X≤stY  ⟹  X≤icxY∧X≤icvYX\le_{st}Y\implies X\le_{icx}Y\wedge X\le_{icv}YX≤st​Y⟹X≤icx​Y∧X≤icv​Y, not drafted here) provable by unfolding rather than by genuine content — the two are kept as independently-quantified predicates for this reason. This mission draws on no platform prior art (searches for "convex order" and "martingale" as of 2026-09-18 return only false positives). Reusable beyond this mission: the ConvexOrder/IcxOrder pattern and their martingale/submartingale coupling shape parallel Chunks 03/04's univariate pair and Chunk 06's multivariate usual-order pair closely enough that a future pass drafting the icv companion, or Chapter VII's later dispersion and transform orders, could restate the same shape with minimal adaptation.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007, Chapter 7 (Multivariate Variability and Related Orders), §7.A.1–7.A.2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • This series' Chunk 03 (StochasticOrders.Convex) and Chunk 04 (StochasticOrders.MonotoneConvex), for the univariate convex and increasing convex orders and their martingale/submartingale couplings this chapter directly generalizes; Chunk 06 (StochasticOrders.Multivariate), for the multivariate usual stochastic order and its own coupling characterization.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders VIII: Closure of the Convexity Orders Under Random SumsTextbook

Counting terms and comparing the resulting sums

Chapters III and IV formalize what it means for one random variable to be "more spread out" or "larger and more spread out" than another. Chapter VIII asks a different kind of question: if the number of terms in a sum of i.i.d. random variables is itself random, and one count is larger than another in one of these orders, does the resulting random sum inherit the comparison? This mission formalizes the chapter's own answer — Theorem 8.A.13 — a clean, self-contained closure result that needs only the icx/icv/cx orders from Chunks 03/04 (restated locally) and one nonnegative-integer-valued index, without the heavier parametric-family apparatus (SICX, SICV, SIL, and the stochastic-convexity-of-a-family notions) that occupies most of the rest of the chapter.

The icx/icv/cx orders, restated for this chapter

This chapter restates the univariate increasing convex, increasing concave and convex orders (Chunks 04 and 03's own subjects) locally, since drafts cannot import another mission's definitions: for random variables X,YX,YX,Y, X≤icxYX\le_{icx}YX≤icx​Y [X≤icvYX\le_{icv}YX≤icv​Y] if E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]E[\varphi(X)]\le E[\varphi(Y)]E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)] for every increasing convex [concave] φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}φ:R→R for which the expectations exist, and X≤cxYX\le_{cx}YX≤cx​Y if the same holds for every convex φ\varphiφ (dropping "increasing"). Theorem 8.A.13 applies these same three orders to nonnegative-integer-valued random variables M,NM,NM,N — a special case of the real-valued order (after the coercion N→R\mathbb{N}\to\mathbb{R}N→R), not a separate discrete order, per this chapter's own pitfall 1.

Formalization target

Goal: closure of the icx/icv/cx orders under random sums (Theorem 8.A.13)

Let {Yk,k∈N++}\{Y_k, k\in\mathbb{N}_{++}\}{Yk​,k∈N++​} be i.i.d. nonnegative random variables, independent of the two nonnegative discrete random variables MMM and NNN. Then

M≤icx[≤icv] N  ⟹  ∑k=1MYk≤icx[≤icv]∑k=1NYk,M≤cxN  ⟹  ∑k=1MYk≤cx∑k=1NYk.M\le_{icx}[\le_{icv}]\,N \implies \sum_{k=1}^{M}Y_k \le_{icx}[\le_{icv}]\sum_{k=1}^{N}Y_k, \qquad M\le_{cx}N \implies \sum_{k=1}^{M}Y_k \le_{cx}\sum_{k=1}^{N}Y_k.M≤icx​[≤icv​]N⟹k=1∑M​Yk​≤icx​[≤icv​]k=1∑N​Yk​,M≤cx​N⟹k=1∑M​Yk​≤cx​k=1∑N​Yk​.

Comparing the number of terms propagates to a comparison of the resulting random sums. This is "an application of these notions in establishing a stochastic inequality," in the book's own words right before the theorem — the formal content behind Example 8.A.2's claim that a homogeneous Poisson process is SIL, via the semigroup property of Example 8.A.7 (neither a numbered theorem, so neither is drafted as a milestone here — cited as background only, per CAPTAIN_BRIEF.md rule 5).

The book's proof defines ψ(n)=E[φ(∑k=1nYk)]\psi(n) = E[\varphi(\sum_{k=1}^n Y_k)]ψ(n)=E[φ(∑k=1n​Yk​)] for an increasing convex [concave] φ\varphiφ and observes (via the unnumbered Example 8.A.4) that ψ\psiψ is itself increasing and convex [concave] in nnn; the icx/icv order on M,NM,NM,N then transfers directly to ψ(M)\psi(M)ψ(M) vs. ψ(N)\psi(N)ψ(N), giving part (a). Part (b) follows from part (a) together with the equal-means fact E[∑k=1MYk]=E[∑k=1NYk]E[\sum_{k=1}^M Y_k]=E[\sum_{k=1}^N Y_k]E[∑k=1M​Yk​]=E[∑k=1N​Yk​] under M≤cxNM\le_{cx}NM≤cx​N (Theorem 4.A.35, a Chapter 4 result not restated in this mission).

Significance

Random sums are the natural model for aggregate risk, total service time, or total demand when the number of contributing terms is itself uncertain — the number of claims in an insurance period, the number of customers served, the number of jobs in a batch. Theorem 8.A.13 is the tool that lets an analyst reduce a comparison of two such aggregates to a comparison of the (often much simpler) counting processes that generate them, without having to reason about the joint distribution of the sums directly. It is also the concrete instance, stripped of the rest of the chapter's parametric-family machinery, of a pattern that recurs throughout the book: an order on an index set (here, the count MMM vs. NNN) transferring through a monotone/convex construction (here, summation) to an order on the resulting random variables — the same shape Chunk 06's Theorem 6.B.16(b) and Chunk 07's Theorem 7.A.9 each illustrate in their own settings.

No platform prior art exists: GET /theorems?q=random+sum, q=compound+distribution, q=Poisson+process, and q=renewal return nothing usable (the last returns only MarkovMixing/CLT-adjacent hits, not classical renewal or compound-sum results, confirmed at triage time and re-checked this session). This mission restates the icx/icv/cx orders and their random-sum closure as a self-contained result, independently drafted since drafts cannot import Chunks 03/04's Lean.

Difficulty

The chief formalization risk is treating M≤icxNM\le_{icx}NM≤icx​N as a separate "discrete" order rather than the same real-valued order applied to N\mathbb{N}N-valued random variables after coercion — this chapter's own pitfall 1. A second risk is drafting ∑k=1MYk\sum_{k=1}^{M}Y_k∑k=1M​Yk​ as a fixed-length sum with MMM substituted in afterward, rather than a genuine random (randomly-stopped) sum where MMM is itself random and independent of the {Yk}\{Y_k\}{Yk​} sequence — this chapter's own pitfall 2; the independence hypothesis has to be carried explicitly, not left as an unstated convention. A third risk, common to every bracketed theorem in this series, is conflating the icx and icv cases of part (a) into a single Or-joined statement rather than two clearly distinguished conjuncts — this chapter's own pitfall 3.

A different kind of risk, specific to this chapter, is scope creep into the parametric-family apparatus (SI, SCX, SICX, SIL, and the "family indexed by θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ" definitions) that occupies most of Chapter 8: as BRIEF.md's own Setup note observes, that apparatus is heavier than the rest of the book (a family, a parameter set, and several bracketed cases per definition), and a trivializing risk specific to it — flagged in this chapter's pitfall 4 — is a family predicate that is vacuously true for a degenerate parametrization (e.g. Θ\ThetaΘ a singleton). This mission avoids that risk entirely by choosing the one clean, self-contained closure theorem in the chapter that needs none of it.

Formalization scope

The icx/icv/cx orders are restated locally (IcxOrder, IcvOrder, ConvexOrder, univariate, real-valued), exactly matching Chunks 04 and 03's own shapes, since drafts cannot import another mission's definitions. M,N:Ω→NM,N:\Omega\to\mathbb{N}M,N:Ω→N are nonnegative-integer-valued; the orders are applied to them via the coercion fun ω => (M ω : ℝ) (resp. N), matching pitfall 1 exactly — no separate discrete-order predicate is introduced. The i.i.d. sequence is drafted as Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ (indexing Y 0, Y 1, … for the book's Y_1, Y_2, …, a one-step reindexing noted explicitly rather than left implicit), with iIndepFun Y μ for mutual independence and IdentDistrib (Y j) (Y k) μ μ for every j, k for identical distribution, plus 0 ≤ᵐ[μ] Y k for nonnegativity. The random sum itself is ∑ k ∈ Finset.range (M ω), Y k ω — a genuine randomly-stopped sum, per pitfall 2 — and independence of {Yk}\{Y_k\}{Yk​} from (M,N)(M,N)(M,N) jointly is IndepFun (fun ω => (M ω, N ω)) (fun ω k => Y k ω) μ, treating the whole sequence as one ℕ → ℝ-valued random element, stated as an explicit hypothesis rather than an implicit convention. The theorem's three conjuncts (icx, icv, cx) mirror the book's own single Theorem 8.A.13, whose part (a) bundles the icx/icv brackets and whose part (b) states the cx case separately, per pitfall 3.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: substituting M into a fixed-length Finset.range n sum after the fact (erasing the random-stopping structure that makes this a random-sum theorem at all) rather than genuinely summing over Finset.range (M ω), and treating M ≤icx N as anything other than the same real-valued order Chunks 03/04 define, applied after coercion. This mission draws on no platform prior art (searches for "random sum", "compound distribution", "Poisson process" and "renewal" as of 2026-09-18 return nothing usable). Unlike every other chapter in this series so far, this mission has no milestone theorems: every other numbered result near the goal in this chapter needs the parametric-family apparatus this mission deliberately avoids, and the un-numbered facts the goal's own proof cites (Example 8.A.4's potential-function monotonicity, Example 8.A.7's semigroup property) cannot be milestones per CAPTAIN_BRIEF.md rule 5 — see STATUS.md for the full accounting.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007, Chapter 8 (Stochastic Convexity and Concavity), §8.A.1–8.A.2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • This series' Chunk 03 (StochasticOrders.Convex) and Chunk 04 (StochasticOrders.MonotoneConvex), for the univariate convex and increasing convex/concave orders this chapter restates locally.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders IX: The PQD and Supermodular OrdersTextbook

Ordering how strongly two variables move together

The first eight chapters of Shaked and Shanthikumar's Stochastic Orders (Springer, 2007) compare single random variables — location, variability, convexity. Chapter IX turns to a different question: given two coordinates of a random vector, how strongly do they tend to move together? "Large values of X1X_1X1​ go with large values of X2X_2X2​" is a qualitative property (positive dependence); comparing how much two bivariate distributions exhibit it, holding their individual marginals fixed, is what this chapter's positive dependence orders make precise. This mission formalizes the two central ones — the PQD order and the supermodular order — and the supermodular order's closure properties, the chapter's own capstone result.

The PQD and supermodular orders

Let X=(X1,…,Xn)X=(X_1,\dots,X_n)X=(X1​,…,Xn​) and Y=(Y1,…,Yn)Y=(Y_1,\dots,Y_n)Y=(Y1​,…,Yn​) be two random vectors, with joint survival function Fˉ(x)=P{X1>x1,…,Xn>xn}\bar F(x)=P\{X_1>x_1,\dots,X_n>x_n\}Fˉ(x)=P{X1​>x1​,…,Xn​>xn​} and joint distribution function F(x)=P{X1≤x1,…,Xn≤xn}F(x)=P\{X_1\le x_1,\dots,X_n\le x_n\}F(x)=P{X1​≤x1​,…,Xn​≤xn​} (similarly Gˉ,G\bar G, GGˉ,G for YYY). XXX is smaller than YYY in the PQD order, written X≤PQDYX\le_{PQD}YX≤PQD​Y, if

Fˉ(x)≤Gˉ(x)  and  F(x)≤G(x)for every x∈Rn.\bar F(x)\le\bar G(x)\ \text{ and }\ F(x)\le G(x) \quad\text{for every }x\in\mathbb{R}^n.Fˉ(x)≤Gˉ(x)  and  F(x)≤G(x)for every x∈Rn.

(It follows, though it need not be assumed, that XXX and YYY then share the same univariate marginals — the two inequalities together pin the marginals down, unlike a single one alone.) This is Lehmann's positive-quadrant-dependence order in its general multivariate form: YYY's coordinates cluster together, in both the upper and lower "quadrants," at least as strongly as XXX's.

A function φ:Rn→R\varphi:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}φ:Rn→R is supermodular if φ(x)+φ(y)≤φ(x∧y)+φ(x∨y)\varphi(x)+\varphi(y)\le\varphi(x\wedge y)+\varphi(x\vee y)φ(x)+φ(y)≤φ(x∧y)+φ(x∨y) for the coordinatewise meet/join — the function-level notion the platform's Topkis/Supermodularity series already formalizes for games and lattices, reused here directly. XXX is smaller than YYY in the supermodular order, written X≤smYX\le_{sm}YX≤sm​Y, if E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)]E[\varphi(X)]\le E[\varphi(Y)]E[φ(X)]≤E[φ(Y)] for every supermodular φ\varphiφ for which the two expectations exist. Because the indicator of any upper or lower orthant is itself supermodular, X≤smY  ⟹  X≤PQDYX\le_{sm}Y\implies X\le_{PQD}YX≤sm​Y⟹X≤PQD​Y (Eq. 9.A.17): the supermodular order is strictly finer than the PQD order, and for n=2n=2n=2 the two coincide.

Formalization targets

Goal: closure properties of the supermodular order (Theorem 9.A.9(a),(c))

(X1,…,Xn)≤sm(Y1,…,Yn)  ⟹  (g1(X1),…,gn(Xn))≤sm(g1(Y1),…,gn(Yn))(X_1,\dots,X_n)\le_{sm}(Y_1,\dots,Y_n) \implies (g_1(X_1),\dots,g_n(X_n))\le_{sm}(g_1(Y_1),\dots,g_n(Y_n))(X1​,…,Xn​)≤sm​(Y1​,…,Yn​)⟹(g1​(X1​),…,gn​(Xn​))≤sm​(g1​(Y1​),…,gn​(Yn​))

whenever every gig_igi​ is increasing, or every gig_igi​ is decreasing (part a); and

X≤smY  ⟹  XI≤smYIfor every I⊆{1,…,n}X\le_{sm}Y \implies X_I\le_{sm}Y_I \quad\text{for every } I\subseteq\{1,\dots,n\}X≤sm​Y⟹XI​≤sm​YI​for every I⊆{1,…,n}

(part c, closure under marginalization). These are two of Theorem 9.A.9's five closure properties — the theorem the brief for this mission recommends as its goal — chosen as the ones that need no further definitional machinery beyond the orders themselves (composition and a coordinate projection, both plain pushforwards of the vector's law).

Supporting milestone

  • Theorem 9.A.4, the general multivariate closure of the PQD order under independent pairing: if X≤PQDYX\le_{PQD}YX≤PQD​Y, U≤PQDVU\le_{PQD}VU≤PQD​V, with X,UX,UX,U independent and Y,VY,VY,V independent, then (φ1(X1,U1),…,φn(Xn,Un))≤PQD(φ1(Y1,V1),…,φn(Yn,Vn))(\varphi_1(X_1,U_1),\dots,\varphi_n(X_n,U_n))\le_{PQD}(\varphi_1(Y_1,V_1),\dots,\varphi_n(Y_n,V_n))(φ1​(X1​,U1​),…,φn​(Xn​,Un​))≤PQD​(φ1​(Y1​,V1​),…,φn​(Yn​,Vn​)) for all increasing φi\varphi_iφi​ — the closure property the chapter opens with (as Theorem 9.A.1, the bivariate case), generalized to nnn dimensions.

Significance

Positive dependence orders formalize a comparison operations research and risk management need constantly but rarely state precisely: two portfolios, insurance lines, or queueing networks with identical individual risk profiles can still differ sharply in how their components co-move, and that co-movement — not the marginals — is often what drives tail risk, correlated failures, or aggregate variability. The supermodular order is the standard tool for comparing this directly: Theorem 9.A.9's closure properties are what let a comparison established for primitive components survive the operations a model actually performs on them — relabeling by a monotone transform (part a), reading off a subset of coordinates (part c), combining independent sub-vectors (part b), conditioning on a covariate (part d), or passing to a distributional limit (part e). Chapter VI's multivariate stochastic order and Chapter VII's multivariate convex order are the two other multivariate orders in the book; the supermodular order is the one built specifically to compare dependence structure rather than location or spread, and it connects directly to the platform's existing Topkis/Supermodularity series, whose function-level predicate this mission reuses rather than restates.

Formalizing Theorem 9.A.9 fixes the exact shape a supermodular-order closure claim takes when built as a pushforward of the vector's law — the natural Mathlib-idiomatic rendering once the order is stated on laws rather than on variables tied to a fixed ambient space — for any future mission in this series or elsewhere that needs to state a closure property of a vector-valued stochastic order. No proof is attempted; both drafted parts of Theorem 9.A.9 have short book proofs (part (a) from the fact that composing a supermodular function with all-increasing or all-decreasing coordinate maps is again supermodular; part (c) the book calls "easy to prove"), making them plausible future proof targets.

Difficulty

The chapter's central definitional trap is that the PQD order's defining condition — even in its general multivariate form — determines the marginals as a consequence of the two joint inequalities holding together, not as a separate hypothesis to add; adding same-marginals as an extra explicit condition on top of Eqs. (9.A.13)-(9.A.14) would not be false, but it would present as a hypothesis something the theorem's own two conditions already force. A second trap is specific to Theorem 9.A.9(a): the gig_igi​ must be uniformly increasing or uniformly decreasing across all coordinates, not an arbitrary per-coordinate mix — a mixed-monotonicity version is a materially different, unproven claim, since it is exactly the all-same-direction condition that keeps a composition with a supermodular function supermodular. A third, more basic trap common to every function-class order in this book: "for every supermodular φ\varphiφ" must be a genuine universal quantifier with the two expectations' existence stated as an explicit hypothesis, not a global assumption or a specific test function standing in for the whole class.

Formalization scope

Unlike the univariate orders formalized elsewhere in this series (which take random variables X:Ω→RX:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}X:Ω→R, Y:Ω′→RY:\Omega'\to\mathbb{R}Y:Ω′→R on two possibly-different probability spaces), PQDOrder and SupermodularOrder here are stated directly on the two vectors' laws — measures P,QP,QP,Q on ι→R\iota\to\mathbb{R}ι→R for a finite index type ι\iotaι — since the book's own comparisons never reference a joint law of XXX and YYY together, only their separate distributions. This is also what lets Theorem 9.A.9(a)'s coordinatewise composition and (c)'s marginalization be stated as plain pushforwards (Measure.map) of one law, without carrying an ambient sample space through the statement. The index type is left an arbitrary finite type (Fintype ι, not fixed to Fin n) so the same two declarations serve both a full nnn-vector and any marginal sub-vector obtained by restricting to a subset III of coordinates — the shape Theorem 9.A.9(c) itself needs. Supermodularity reuses the platform's own Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn (from the Topkis series, via a kind: reference item) with its relativizing set argument fixed to Set.univ, its plain unrelativized form — checked to match the book's φ(x)+φ(y)≤φ(x∧y)+φ(x∨y) on ι → ℝ's own coordinatewise lattice structure exactly, not a games- or player-scoped variant. Independence in Theorem 9.A.4 is formalized by taking the joint law of the two independent vectors to be the product measure of their marginals — the standard way to construct an independent coupling with prescribed marginals — rather than adding a separate independence hypothesis about pre-existing random variables. Measurable hypotheses are added on every map a Measure.map is taken along, guarding against the pushforward's junk-zero-measure convention for a non-measurable map; none narrows what the book's own theorems claim, since every map used (a monotone/antitone composition, a coordinate projection) is genuinely measurable. A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: the supermodular quantifier ranges over the reused, already-audited Topkis predicate rather than a hand-rolled or restricted one, and the "for all increasing φi\varphi_iφi​" of Theorem 9.A.4 is a genuine universal over jointly-monotone functions of two arguments, not a fixed example.

This mission draws on the platform's own Topkis/Supermodularity series for its supermodular function-level building block (Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn, reused as a reference item — the strongest prior-art connection of the whole nine-chapter series, per the series plan) but on no prior art for the orders themselves (repeated searches for "PQD", "positive dependence", "Fréchet bound" and "supermodular" returned nothing on-topic beyond the Topkis series as of 2026-09-18). Reusable beyond this mission: the laws-only, arbitrary-Fintype- index formalization pattern is available to any later mission in this series needing a multivariate order (Chapter VI's multivariate stochastic order, Chapter VII's multivariate convex order) that wants marginalization or coordinatewise composition stated as plain pushforwards.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
  • E. L. Lehmann, "Some concepts of dependence", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 37(5), 1966, 1137–1153. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699260
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning I: The Separation Theorem, Strong Duality and the KKT ConditionsTextbook

Motivation

Every convex optimization algorithm in machine learning — from projected gradient descent to support vector machines to the mirror-descent methods of later chapters of this book — is justified by a small set of optimality certificates: a checkable condition on a candidate solution that guarantees it actually solves the problem, without searching the whole feasible set. The most widely used such certificate is the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) system: a set of gradient and complementary-slackness equations that a solution of a convex program with differentiable data must satisfy, and that (under a mild constraint qualification) is also sufficient. It is the tool a practitioner reaches for to check optimality of a numerical solver's output, and the tool a theorist reaches for to derive an algorithm (dual ascent, augmented Lagrangian, interior point methods) in the first place. Every convex machine learning model introduced in Chapter 1 of this book — regularized least squares, support vector machines, logistic regression with constraints — is an instance of the general convex program these milestones analyze.

The result traces back to Kuhn and Tucker's 1951 paper Nonlinear Programming, with Karush's 1939 unpublished thesis establishing the same conditions independently and earlier; Slater's 1950 unpublished note is the source of the constraint qualification that bears his name and that makes the necessity direction possible. Lan's Chapter 2 gives a compact, modern, purely finite-dimensional derivation of the whole chain — separation, duality, saddle points, KKT — from first principles, self-contained in about twenty pages, aimed squarely at the convex programs that appear in machine learning.

Setting

Fix n,m,p∈Nn, m, p \in \mathbb{N}n,m,p∈N and work in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with its standard inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle \cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩. A convex program (2.3.16) is

f∗≡min⁡x∈Xf(x)s.t.gi(x)≤0 (i=1,…,m),hj(x)=0 (j=1,…,p),f^* \equiv \min_{x \in X} f(x) \quad \text{s.t.} \quad g_i(x) \le 0\ (i=1,\dots,m), \quad h_j(x) = 0\ (j=1,\dots,p),f∗≡x∈Xmin​f(x)s.t.gi​(x)≤0 (i=1,…,m),hj​(x)=0 (j=1,…,p),

where X⊆RnX \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nX⊆Rn is a nonempty closed convex set, f,g1,…,gm:X→Rf, g_1,\dots,g_m : X \to \mathbb{R}f,g1​,…,gm​:X→R are convex, and h1,…,hph_1,\dots,h_ph1​,…,hp​ are affine. A point x∈Xx \in Xx∈X is feasible if it satisfies every gi(x)≤0g_i(x)\le 0gi​(x)≤0 and hj(x)=0h_j(x)=0hj​(x)=0; x∗x^*x∗ is optimal if it is feasible and f(x∗)≤f(x)f(x^*)\le f(x)f(x∗)≤f(x) for every feasible xxx.

The normal cone of XXX at xxx is NX(x):={w∈Rn:⟨w,y−x⟩≤0 ∀y∈X}N_X(x) := \{w \in \mathbb{R}^n : \langle w, y-x\rangle \le 0 \ \forall y \in X\}NX​(x):={w∈Rn:⟨w,y−x⟩≤0 ∀y∈X} — the set of directions that make an obtuse angle with every direction into XXX from xxx; it is {0}\{0\}{0} when X=RnX = \mathbb{R}^nX=Rn, recovering unconstrained first-order optimality. The Lagrangian is L(x,λ,y):=f(x)+∑iλigi(x)+∑jyjhj(x)L(x,\lambda,y) := f(x) + \sum_i \lambda_i g_i(x) + \sum_j y_j h_j(x)L(x,λ,y):=f(x)+∑i​λi​gi​(x)+∑j​yj​hj​(x) for multipliers λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0, y∈Rpy \in \mathbb{R}^py∈Rp; the Lagrange dual value is φ(λ,y):=min⁡x∈XL(x,λ,y)\varphi(\lambda,y) := \min_{x\in X} L(x,\lambda,y)φ(λ,y):=minx∈X​L(x,λ,y), and the Lagrange dual problem is φ∗:=max⁡λ≥0, yφ(λ,y)\varphi^* := \max_{\lambda\ge 0,\,y}\varphi(\lambda,y)φ∗:=maxλ≥0,y​φ(λ,y). Weak duality, φ∗≤f∗\varphi^*\le f^*φ∗≤f∗, holds unconditionally by construction. Slater's condition asks for xˉ∈int⁡X\bar x \in \operatorname{int} Xxˉ∈intX with g(xˉ)<0g(\bar x) < 0g(xˉ)<0, h(xˉ)=0h(\bar x)=0h(xˉ)=0; the restricted Slater condition weakens the interior requirement to the relative interior rint⁡X\operatorname{rint} XrintX while keeping strict inequality for every (here: every) nonlinear constraint.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 2.8(b), KKT necessity

x∗ optimal (with a restricted-Slater point)  ⟹  ∃ λ∗≥0, y∗: ∇f(x∗)+∑iλi∗∇gi(x∗)+∑jyj∗∇hj(x∗)∈NX(x∗), λi∗gi(x∗)=0 ∀i.x^* \text{ optimal (with a restricted-Slater point)} \implies \exists\, \lambda^*\ge 0,\, y^*: \ \nabla f(x^*) + \sum_i \lambda_i^* \nabla g_i(x^*) + \sum_j y_j^* \nabla h_j(x^*) \in N_X(x^*), \ \lambda_i^* g_i(x^*) = 0\ \forall i.x∗ optimal (with a restricted-Slater point)⟹∃λ∗≥0,y∗: ∇f(x∗)+i∑​λi∗​∇gi​(x∗)+j∑​yj∗​∇hj​(x∗)∈NX​(x∗), λi∗​gi​(x∗)=0 ∀i.

Companion — Theorem 2.8(a), KKT sufficiency

∃ λ∗≥0, y∗ satisfying stationarity and complementary slackness at a feasible, differentiable x∗  ⟹  x∗ optimal.\exists\, \lambda^* \ge 0,\, y^* \text{ satisfying stationarity and complementary slackness at a feasible, differentiable } x^* \implies x^* \text{ optimal.}∃λ∗≥0,y∗ satisfying stationarity and complementary slackness at a feasible, differentiable x∗⟹x∗ optimal.

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Theorem 2.1 (separation): a point outside a closed convex set is strictly separated from it by a hyperplane.
  • Proposition 2.9 (Convex Theorem on Alternative): insolvability of a strict-inequality system, plus a Slater point, forces solvability of a dual multiplier system.
  • Theorem 2.6 (strong duality): under Slater's condition, φ∗=f∗\varphi^* = f^*φ∗=f∗ and the dual is solvable.
  • Theorem 2.7(a)/(b) (saddle points): x∗x^*x∗ is optimal iff it extends to a saddle point of LLL (the "only if" needs Slater's condition; the "if" needs nothing beyond the saddle inequalities).

Each of these five is stated the way the book states it — no constant is hard-coded, no O(·) is involved, and every hypothesis (closedness, convexity, Slater/restricted-Slater) is exactly the one the corresponding proof uses.

Significance

The KKT system is the interface between convex optimization theory and every algorithm that exploits it: primal-dual methods track approximate KKT residuals as a stopping criterion, and the derivation of the Lagrange dual (used throughout the book's later treatment of composite and constrained problems) rests on strong duality, milestone strong_duality here. The saddle-point characterization (saddle_point_sufficient/saddle_point_necessary) is the standard route to designing an algorithm: a method that provably drives a pair (xk,λk)(x_k,\lambda_k)(xk​,λk​) to a saddle point of LLL is provably convergent to an optimal x∗x^*x∗, without ever needing to verify optimality directly against the primal problem.

None of the six substantive results here has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me. The platform holds a genuinely weaker unconstrained-in-KKK condition (OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics. kkt_optimality, Hazan's Theorem 2.2: ⟨∇f(x∗),y−x∗⟩≥0\langle\nabla f(x^*), y-x^*\rangle \ge 0⟨∇f(x∗),y−x∗⟩≥0 for y∈Ky \in Ky∈K, with no inequality/equality constraints or multipliers at all) and a structurally different, strictly more general cone-based Lagrange-duality development (VectorSpaceOpt.lagrange_duality and VectorSpaceOpt.lagrangian_saddle_sufficient_pointed, from Luenberger, which bundle all constraints into a single map into a convex cone in a general normed space, rather than Lan's explicit Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm inequality / Rp\mathbb{R}^pRp equality split). Formalizing this mission produces the finite-dimensional convex-program version of KKT in exactly the shape it is used and taught: separate multiplier vectors for inequality and equality constraints, an explicit normal cone rather than a cone-map abstraction, and both directions of the necessity/sufficiency split.

Difficulty

The separation theorem (Theorem 2.1) itself is routine once the projection onto a closed convex set is available. The real difficulty is entirely in the direction of the Convex Theorem on Alternative that Proposition 2.9 states: the naive idea — "insolvability of (I) should give a separating hyperplane between {x:f(x)<c}\{x : f(x)<c\}{x:f(x)<c} and {x:g(x)≤0}\{x: g(x)\le 0\}{x:g(x)≤0} directly" — fails, because these are sets in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn and separating them there does not produce a sign-definite multiplier vector. Lan's proof instead lifts to Rm+1\mathbb{R}^{m+1}Rm+1 and separates the epigraph-like set T={u:∃x∈X, f(x)≤u0,g(x)≤u1:m}T = \{u : \exists x\in X,\ f(x)\le u_0, g(x)\le u_{1:m}\}T={u:∃x∈X, f(x)≤u0​,g(x)≤u1:m​} from the open orthant-like set S={u:u0<c,u1:m≤0}S = \{u: u_0<c, u_{1:m}\le 0\}S={u:u0​<c,u1:m​≤0}; only in this lifted space does the separating normal's sign constraint (forced by SSS's unboundedness in the positive directions) translate into λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0. Getting the sign of the 000-th coordinate strictly positive — needed to normalize and divide — is itself a small separate argument using the Slater subsystem's solution. The KKT necessity direction (the goal) then chains three of these already-nontrivial results (separation → CTA → strong duality → saddle necessity) before translating the saddle-point condition on LLL into the gradient/normal-cone form via differentiability of f,gf, gf,g at x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization scope

All milestones are stated over EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with Convex/ConvexOn from Mathlib. Affine equality constraints hjh_jhj​ are represented by explicit witnesses wj∈Rn,bj∈Rw_j \in \mathbb{R}^n, b_j \in \mathbb{R}wj​∈Rn,bj​∈R with hj(x)=⟨wj,x⟩+bjh_j(x) = \langle w_j, x\rangle + b_jhj​(x)=⟨wj​,x⟩+bj​, so that ∇hj=wj\nabla h_j = w_j∇hj​=wj​ is available without a separate affine-differentiability lemma. The normal cone NX∗(x)N_X^*(x)NX∗​(x) is Lan's own primal-space object (normalCone); the restricted Slater condition uses Mathlib's intrinsicInterior ℝ X for rint⁡X\operatorname{rint} XrintX, distinct from the plain interior X used by the un-restricted Slater condition of Theorems 2.6/2.7(b). Primal optimal values and Lagrange dual values are stated via IsGLB/pointwise-inequality forms rather than raw sInf, so that no hypothesis is silently made true by an empty or unbounded set defaulting sInf to a junk value — in every milestone here the relevant set is guaranteed nonempty by the Slater-point hypothesis already present.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: stating kkt_necessary/kkt_sufficient with X=RnX = \mathbb{R}^nX=Rn (no set constraint) and empty g,hg, hg,h (no functional constraints) would collapse the normal-cone condition to ∇f(x∗)=0\nabla f(x^*) = 0∇f(x∗)=0 and make the whole KKT apparatus vacuous of any duality content; the milestones here keep XXX, ggg and hhh as genuine free parameters (the theorems are stated for arbitrary m, p : ℕ, including but not restricted to the degenerate case) so that the constrained content of Lan's theorem is what gets proved.

Reusable beyond this mission: normalCone and lagrangian are generic enough that any later chapter of this book needing Lagrangian duality or normal-cone stationarity (none of the current first-wave chapters 03/06 needs them directly) could import them once published rather than redeclaring. Contributions most welcome on the two hardest milestones, cta_solvable_of_insolvable and kkt_necessary, since they carry the mission's real difficulty; separation_point_closed can likely be discharged quickly via Mathlib's geometric_hahn_banach_point_closed.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • H. W. Kuhn and A. W. Tucker, "Nonlinear Programming," Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, 1951, pp. 481–492.
  • W. Karush, "Minima of Functions of Several Variables with Inequalities as Side Constraints," M.Sc. thesis, University of Chicago, 1939.
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970 (standard modern reference for the separation theorem and Lagrangian duality used throughout).
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders I: The Usual Stochastic Order and Its Coupling CharacterizationTextbook

Comparing random outcomes without comparing numbers

Operations research and applied probability are full of questions of the shape "is X riskier, larger, or later than Y?" when X and Y are random: two queueing disciplines' waiting times, two inventory policies' shortfall, two insurance portfolios' claim size. Comparing their means answers a weaker question than the modeler usually wants, since two distributions can share a mean while one is uniformly the "worse" one to face. Shaked and Shanthikumar's Stochastic Orders (Springer, 2007) is the standard reference for the family of orders built to make "X is stochastically no larger than Y" precise, and this mission formalizes the foundational member of that family: the usual stochastic order, together with its central structural theorem.

The usual stochastic order

Let XXX be a real-valued random variable on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a real-valued random variable on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the usual stochastic order, written X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y, if

P{X>x}≤P{Y>x}for every x∈(−∞,∞).P\{X > x\} \le P\{Y > x\} \quad \text{for every } x \in (-\infty,\infty).P{X>x}≤P{Y>x}for every x∈(−∞,∞).

Equivalently, P{X≤x}≥P{Y≤x}P\{X \le x\} \ge P\{Y \le x\}P{X≤x}≥P{Y≤x} for every xxx: YYY's cumulative distribution function never exceeds XXX's. Two features of the definition matter for everything that follows. First, it is a comparison of distributions, not of jointly defined variables — XXX and YYY need not live on the same probability space, and the order depends only on their laws. Second, the inequality must hold for every threshold xxx simultaneously; it is not a comparison of two summary statistics such as means or medians, and a distribution can fail X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y even while E[X]≤E[Y]E[X] \le E[Y]E[X]≤E[Y].

A closely related order compares residual lifetimes rather than raw tail probabilities. XXX is smaller than YYY in the hazard rate order, written X≤hrYX \le_{hr} YX≤hr​Y, if the survival functions Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}\bar F(x) = P\{X>x\}Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}, Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x}\bar G(x) = P\{Y>x\}Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x} satisfy Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x)\bar F(x)\bar G(y) \ge \bar F(y)\bar G(x)Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x) for all x≤yx \le yx≤y — the general, density-free form of the condition that for absolutely continuous distributions reduces to a pointwise comparison of hazard rates r(t)=f(t)/Fˉ(t)r(t) = f(t)/\bar F(t)r(t)=f(t)/Fˉ(t). It is one of several stronger orders (alongside the likelihood ratio order) that the book shows all imply ≤st\le_{st}≤st​, and it is the mission's second definition.

Formalization targets

Goal: the coupling characterization (Theorem 1.A.1)

X≤stY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=stX, Y^=stY, and P{X^≤Y^}=1.X \le_{st} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y : \Omega'' \to \mathbb{R} \text{ with } \hat X =_{st} X,\ \hat Y =_{st} Y,\ \text{and } P\{\hat X \le \hat Y\} = 1.X≤st​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, and P{X^≤Y^}=1.

This is the order's Strassen-type coupling theorem: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y holds exactly when copies of XXX and YYY can be realized on one common probability space so that, almost surely, the copy of XXX never exceeds the copy of YYY. It is the weakest possible statement with this shape (existence of some coupling on some space, not a canonical one), and it is the archetype every later chapter's own coupling theorem — for the hazard rate order, the convex order (via a martingale coupling), the multivariate orders — restates for its own comparison.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 1.A.2, the same characterization restated via a common random source: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y iff there is a random variable ZZZ and functions ψ1≤ψ2\psi_1 \le \psi_2ψ1​≤ψ2​ with X=stψ1(Z)X =_{st} \psi_1(Z)X=st​ψ1​(Z) and Y=stψ2(Z)Y =_{st} \psi_2(Z)Y=st​ψ2​(Z).
  • Theorem 1.A.3(a), closure under monotone transformations: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y and ggg increasing gives g(X)≤stg(Y)g(X) \le_{st} g(Y)g(X)≤st​g(Y) (reversed for ggg decreasing).
  • Theorem 1.A.3(b), closure under increasing functions of independent families and, as its corollary, under convolution: independent Xi≤stYiX_i \le_{st} Y_iXi​≤st​Yi​ and ψ\psiψ increasing gives ψ(X1,…,Xm)≤stψ(Y1,…,Ym)\psi(X_1,\dots,X_m) \le_{st} \psi(Y_1,\dots,Y_m)ψ(X1​,…,Xm​)≤st​ψ(Y1​,…,Ym​), in particular ∑iXi≤st∑iYi\sum_i X_i \le_{st} \sum_i Y_i∑i​Xi​≤st​∑i​Yi​.
  • Theorem 1.B.1, the first link of the book's implication chain: X≤hrY  ⟹  X≤stYX \le_{hr} Y \implies X \le_{st} YX≤hr​Y⟹X≤st​Y.

Significance

The usual stochastic order is the weakest and most widely used of the book's orders, and the coupling theorem is the tool that makes it tractable: comparing tail probabilities for every threshold is an infinite family of inequalities, while exhibiting one coupling on one space settles the comparison in a single stroke. This is the technique behind, among many applications in the book and the wider literature, comparing waiting times across queueing disciplines, bounding the effect of parameter uncertainty on a risk measure, and proving monotonicity results for Markov chains by coupling their sample paths. The closure properties (Theorem 1.A.3) are what let such comparisons survive composition with a monotone payoff function or a sum of independent components — exactly the operations a queueing or inventory model performs on its primitives.

Formalizing this theorem establishes, in one place, both the statement and the exact shape of its existential witness (a genuine ∃ over a probability space and two identically distributed random variables, not merely two abstractly-known-to-exist objects), which is the piece every later chapter's own coupling theorem in this series needs to get right independently. No proof is attempted in this mission; the book's own three-line construction (X^=F−1(U)\hat X = F^{-1}(U)X^=F−1(U), Y^=G−1(U)\hat Y = G^{-1}(U)Y^=G−1(U) for a uniform UUU) is a natural target for a future proof-bearing pass.

Difficulty

The definitional trap is the "for all xxx" in ≤st\le_{st}≤st​: it is tempting to shortcut it into a comparison of one summary statistic (a mean, an essential supremum, a specific quantile), which is uniformly weaker and would make Theorem 1.A.1 either false or a different, easier theorem. The coupling theorem itself has a second trap in its existential structure: the common probability space (Ω′′,ρ)(\Omega'',\rho)(Ω′′,ρ) must be genuinely quantified — fixed neither to Ω\OmegaΩ nor Ω′\Omega'Ω′ in advance — and "X^=stX\hat X =_{st} XX^=st​X" is equality of the two random variables' laws, not almost-sure equality of X^\hat XX^ and XXX themselves (they typically do not share a domain before the construction). Theorem 1.A.3(b)'s general statement, for an arbitrary increasing ψ:Rm→R\psi:\mathbb{R}^m \to \mathbb{R}ψ:Rm→R on independent families, is easy to understate as only its convolution corollary; the book gives both, and the general statement is the one with the actual content (the sum is recovered by taking ψ\psiψ to be the coordinate sum, itself increasing).

Formalization scope

Random variables are represented as measurable functions into R\mathbb{R}R from arbitrary measurable spaces, and "equality in law" is Mathlib's native ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib, which is defined for two (possibly different) probability spaces and requires almost-everywhere measurability rather than fixing an ambient space in advance — matching the book's own treatment of X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y as a comparison between distributions. UsualOrder μ ν X Y and HazardRateOrder μ ν X Y both take X:Ω→RX:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}X:Ω→R on (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) and Y:Ω′→RY:\Omega'\to\mathbb{R}Y:Ω′→R on a separate (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν), so no theorem here can be trivialized by silently forcing XXX and YYY onto one shared space. HazardRateOrder is stated via the survival-function cross-product inequality (Eq. 1.B.4), the form that needs no absolute-continuity hypothesis, rather than via a derivative-based hazard rate, so it applies to the same general random variables as UsualOrder without an extra regularity hypothesis the book itself does not require at this level of generality. Independence in Theorem 1.A.3(b) is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun; the random variable ZZZ of Theorem 1.A.2 is left valued in an arbitrary measurable space, matching the book's unrestricted statement, rather than narrowed to R\mathbb{R}R-valued for convenience. A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ is not formalized as a comparison of means, medians, or any single moment, and the coupling theorems' ∃ is a genuine existential over a probability space, not a hypothesis smuggling in the witness's existence.

This mission draws on no platform prior art (repeated searches for "stochastic order", "coupling", "Strassen" and "identically distributed" turned up nothing on-topic as of 2026-09-18); it is the first mission in a nine-chapter series covering the whole book, and its own definitions are not imported by later chapters — each restates locally what it needs, per the series' own convention that draft items cannot import another draft's definitions. Reusable beyond this mission: the UsualOrder/HazardRateOrder shape (parametrizing over two separate probability spaces) is the pattern every later chapter's own order definition follows.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchProbability+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning XIV: Finite Markov Decision Processes and Bellman's EquationsTextbook

Motivation

Reinforcement learning formalizes a scenario supervised learning cannot: an agent that actively interacts with an environment, choosing actions that change both the state it observes next and the reward it receives, rather than passively receiving an i.i.d. labeled sample. Every practical treatment of this scenario — from classical dynamic programming to modern deep reinforcement learning — is built on the Markov decision process (MDP), a model in which the effect of an action depends only on the current state, not on the full history that led to it. Two questions define the theory this mission covers: given a fixed way of acting (a policy), what value does it obtain, and how is that value actually computed rather than merely characterized as the solution of a fixed-point equation? Mohri, Rostamizadeh and Talwalkar's chapter 17 answers both for the stationary, infinite-horizon discounted case, and this mission targets its two central results: that a fixed policy's value is not just characterized but uniquely determined by a linear system with an explicit closed-form solution (Theorem 17.10), and that the optimal value function — obtained instead by choosing the best action at every state — can be computed by an iterative algorithm guaranteed to converge regardless of where it starts (Theorem 17.11).

Setting

A (finite) Markov decision process consists of a finite set of states SSS, a finite set of actions AAA, a transition kernel P[s′∣s,a]P[s'\mid s,a]P[s′∣s,a] giving the distribution over the next state s′s's′ after taking action aaa at state sss, and an expected reward E[r(s,a)]\mathbb E[r(s,a)]E[r(s,a)] for that transition. A (stationary) policy π:S→Δ(A)\pi:S\to\Delta(A)π:S→Δ(A) assigns each state a distribution over actions — possibly, but not necessarily, a point mass on a single action. Fixing π\piπ turns the MDP into an ordinary Markov chain on SSS: at each step the agent is at some state sss, draws a∼π(s)a\sim\pi(s)a∼π(s), receives (expected) reward E[r(s,a)]\mathbb E[r(s,a)]E[r(s,a)], and moves to a state drawn from P[⋅∣s,a]P[\cdot\mid s,a]P[⋅∣s,a]. For a discount factor γ∈[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1)γ∈[0,1), the value of π\piπ at sss is the expected discounted sum of future rewards starting from sss,

Vπ(s)=Eat∼π(st)[∑t=0+∞γtr(st,at)  ∣  s0=s],V_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_{a_t\sim\pi(s_t)}\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{+\infty}\gamma^t r(s_t,a_t) \;\Big|\; s_0=s\Big],Vπ​(s)=Eat​∼π(st​)​[t=0∑+∞​γtr(st​,at​)​s0​=s],

and the state-action value function Qπ(s,a)Q_\pi(s,a)Qπ​(s,a) is the analogous quantity for taking aaa at sss and then following π\piπ. Marginalizing the raw kernel and reward over the mixed action π(s)\pi(s)π(s) gives the induced transition matrix Ps,s′=P[s′∣s,π(s)]=∑aπ(s)(a)P[s′∣s,a]P_{s,s'}=P[s'\mid s,\pi(s)]=\sum_a \pi(s)(a) P[s'\mid s,a]Ps,s′​=P[s′∣s,π(s)]=∑a​π(s)(a)P[s′∣s,a] and induced reward vector Rs=E[r(s,π(s))]=∑aπ(s)(a) E[r(s,a)]R_s=\mathbb E[r(s,\pi(s))]=\sum_a\pi(s)(a)\,\mathbb E[r(s,a)]Rs​=E[r(s,π(s))]=∑a​π(s)(a)E[r(s,a)] — the objects that turn π\piπ's value into a genuinely linear-algebraic quantity. A policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal if Vπ∗(s)≥Vπ(s)V_{\pi^*}(s)\ge V_\pi(s)Vπ∗​(s)≥Vπ​(s) for every policy π\piπ and every state sss; write V∗V^*V∗ for its value function.

Formalization targets

Theorem 17.10 (goal). For a finite MDP and a fixed policy π\piπ, the matrix I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP (with PPP the policy-induced transition matrix) is invertible, and π\piπ's value function is the unique solution of the Bellman equations, given in closed form by

Vπ=(I−γP)−1R.V_\pi = (I-\gamma P)^{-1} R.Vπ​=(I−γP)−1R.

Proposition 17.9 (milestone). The value function itself satisfies the linear system that Theorem 17.10 solves:

∀s∈S,Vπ(s)=Ea∼π(s)[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′P[s′∣s,π(s)] Vπ(s′).\forall s\in S,\quad V_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_{a\sim\pi(s)}[r(s,a)] + \gamma\sum_{s'} P[s'\mid s,\pi(s)]\,V_\pi(s').∀s∈S,Vπ​(s)=Ea∼π(s)​[r(s,a)]+γs′∑​P[s′∣s,π(s)]Vπ​(s′).

Theorem 17.7 (milestone). A policy π\piπ is optimal if and only if it places probability only on QπQ_\piQπ​-maximizing actions: for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a) with π(s)(a)>0\pi(s)(a)>0π(s)(a)>0, a∈argmax⁡a′Qπ(s,a′)a\in \operatorname{argmax}_{a'} Q_\pi(s,a')a∈argmaxa′​Qπ​(s,a′).

Theorem 17.11 (milestone). The Bellman optimality operator Φ\PhiΦ, [Φ(V)](s)=max⁡a{E[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′P[s′∣s,a]V(s′)}[\Phi(V)](s)=\max_{a} \{\mathbb E[r(s,a)]+\gamma\sum_{s'}P[s'\mid s,a]V(s')\}[Φ(V)](s)=maxa​{E[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′​P[s′∣s,a]V(s′)}, is a γ\gammaγ-contraction for ∥⋅∥∞\lVert\cdot\rVert_\infty∥⋅∥∞​; consequently, for any starting vector V0V_0V0​, the value-iteration sequence Vn+1=Φ(Vn)V_{n+1}=\Phi(V_n)Vn+1​=Φ(Vn​) converges to a fixed point of Φ\PhiΦ.

Significance

Theorem 17.10 is what makes policy evaluation on a finite MDP an exact, finite computation rather than an infinite limit: instead of summing an infinite discounted series or solving an implicit fixed-point equation numerically, a single ∣S∣×∣S∣|S|\times|S|∣S∣×∣S∣ matrix inversion gives the policy's value at every state simultaneously. It is also the base case every planning algorithm in the chapter builds on: policy iteration alternates optimizing a policy with exactly this evaluation step. Theorem 17.11 gives the complementary guarantee for the harder problem of finding the optimal value function directly, without fixing a policy first: value iteration converges from any starting point, with a convergence rate (O(log⁡(1/ϵ))O(\log(1/\epsilon))O(log(1/ϵ)) iterations for ϵ\epsilonϵ-accuracy) that follows from the same contraction argument. Together, the two results are the mathematical content behind why dynamic-programming planning for finite MDPs is tractable at all — the discount factor γ<1\gamma<1γ<1, not any structural assumption on rewards or transitions, is what buys both the uniqueness in Theorem 17.10 and the convergence in Theorem 17.11. Formalizing them requires reproducing this linear-algebraic and metric content precisely, not just asserting the conclusions: an invertibility claim asserted without the operator-norm argument, or a convergence claim without the contraction property, would state something true by fiat rather than the book's actual result. No faithful prior art exists on the platform for this exact model (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious shortcut for Theorem 17.10 is to assert I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP is invertible without proof — true, but not what the book does, and not informative about why it holds. The genuine content is that PPP, being row-stochastic (every row of PPP sums to exactly 111, since π(s)\pi(s)π(s) and P[⋅∣s,a]P[\cdot\mid s,a]P[⋅∣s,a] are both proper distributions), has operator norm ∥P∥∞=1\lVert P\rVert_\infty=1∥P∥∞​=1 exactly, so ∥γP∥∞=γ<1\lVert\gamma P\rVert_\infty=\gamma<1∥γP∥∞​=γ<1 strictly; this rules out 111 as an eigenvalue of γP\gamma PγP, which is exactly what invertibility of I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP requires. The same γ<1\gamma<1γ<1 fact, applied differently, drives Theorem 17.11: showing Φ\PhiΦ is γ\gammaγ-Lipschitz requires bounding Φ(V)(s)−Φ(U)(s)\Phi(V)(s)-\Phi(U)(s)Φ(V)(s)−Φ(U)(s) by comparing the maximizing action for VVV against the same action's value under UUU (not UUU's own maximizer), since the two suprema need not be attained at the same action — a step easy to state incorrectly as a direct comparison of two maxima. Both theorems fail if γ=1\gamma=1γ=1 is allowed: the discounted setting's central asset, a strict contraction, disappears exactly at that boundary.

Formalization scope

States and actions are modeled as finite types (Fintype S, Fintype A); the raw kernel and reward P : S → A → S → ℝ, Er : S → A → ℝ are unconstrained functions, with IsTransitionKernel asserting the required distribution property explicitly rather than assuming it silently. A policy is π : S → A → ℝ with IsPolicy π asserting π s is a distribution over A for every s — deliberately not π : S → A or a PMF-valued function, since Theorem 17.7's own quantifier ("for any pair (s,a) with π(s)(a) > 0") requires treating π(s) as a genuine mixture. PolicyValue is defined as the actual infinite discounted expectation (via an explicit state-occupation-distribution recursion), not as the Bellman fixed point — so that Proposition 17.9 (the value function satisfies the linear system) and Theorem 17.10 (that system has a unique, invertible-matrix solution) are both non-vacuous claims about the same object, rather than one being definitionally true of the other. The trivializing formalization this rules out is asserting IsUnit (1 - γ • P) as a bare hypothesis, or defining V_π as (1-γP)⁻¹R and calling the resulting identity a theorem; both would erase the mission's actual content. Two platform modules model related MDPs (BertsekasSSPModel, a stochastic-shortest-path model with a termination-probability deficit rather than exact row-stochasticity, and FoundationsRL.RLBasics, a finite-horizon episodic model indexed by layer) — neither specializes exactly to this chapter's stationary, always-continuing, infinite-horizon discounted convention, so every definition here is drafted fresh rather than imported. This chunk covers §17.2–17.4.2 (the MDP model, policy value, Bellman's equations, value and policy iteration); §17.4.3 (the linear-programming formulation) and §17.5 (stochastic-approximation learning algorithms — TD(0), Q-learning, SARSA) are out of scope, since they require a stochastic-approximation convergence substrate this mission does not build.

Selected references

  • Mohri, M., Rostamizadeh, A., and Talwalkar, A. Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., chapter 17. MIT Press, 2018.
  • Bellman, R. Dynamic Programming. Princeton University Press, 1957.
  • Puterman, M. L. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, 1994.
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Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization I: Kantorovich Duality and Strong Duality for the Worst-Case RiskTextbook

Motivation

Every data-driven decision problem faces the same trap. A decision-maker estimates a risk functional R(P,ℓ)=EP[ℓ(ξ)]R(P,\ell) = \mathbb{E}_P[\ell(\xi)]R(P,ℓ)=EP​[ℓ(ξ)] from a nominal distribution P^N\hat P_NP^N​ built from NNN training samples, then optimizes a loss function ℓ\ellℓ against P^N\hat P_NP^N​ instead of the unknown true distribution PPP. Because the optimizer adapts to the noise in P^N\hat P_NP^N​, the in-sample risk of the optimizer systematically understates its true, out-of-sample risk — a phenomenon Smith and Winkler named the optimizer's curse (Smith & Winkler, Management Science, 2006). The remedy explored here is to hedge against a whole neighborhood of plausible distributions around P^N\hat P_NP^N​, rather than trusting the point estimate. Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen and Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's INFORMS TutORials chapter (2019) develops this neighborhood using the Wasserstein distance, and the present mission formalizes its foundational duality theory: the machinery every later result in the chapter (finite-sample guarantees, elliptical tractability, regularization) builds on.

Setting

Fix a norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ on a finite-dimensional real vector space EEE (representing Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm). For p∈[1,∞)p \in [1,\infty)p∈[1,∞), the type-ppp Wasserstein distance between two Borel probability measures Q,Q′Q, Q'Q,Q′ on EEE is

Wp(Q,Q′)=(inf⁡π∈Π(Q,Q′)∫E×E∥ξ−ξ′∥p π(dξ,dξ′))1/p,W_p(Q,Q') = \left(\inf_{\pi \in \Pi(Q,Q')} \int_{E\times E} \|\xi-\xi'\|^p\, \pi(d\xi,d\xi')\right)^{1/p},Wp​(Q,Q′)=(π∈Π(Q,Q′)inf​∫E×E​∥ξ−ξ′∥pπ(dξ,dξ′))1/p,

where Π(Q,Q′)\Pi(Q,Q')Π(Q,Q′) is the set of couplings of QQQ and Q′Q'Q′ — joint probability measures on E×EE \times EE×E whose marginals are QQQ and Q′Q'Q′. The optimal π\piπ can be read as a transportation plan moving one pile of dirt (QQQ) into another (Q′Q'Q′) at minimum cost, which is why WpW_pWp​ is also called the earth mover's distance; the underlying linear program was formalized by Kantorovich (1942) after Monge's 1781 original.

Given NNN training samples ξ^1,…,ξ^N\hat\xi_1,\dots,\hat\xi_Nξ^​1​,…,ξ^​N​, the empirical distribution is P^N=1N∑i=1Nδξ^i\hat P_N = \frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N \delta_{\hat\xi_i}P^N​=N1​∑i=1N​δξ^​i​​. Centered at P^N\hat P_NP^N​, the Wasserstein ambiguity set of radius ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0 is

Bε,p(P^N)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp(Q,P^N)≤ε},B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : W_p(Q,\hat P_N) \le \varepsilon\},Bε,p​(P^N​)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε},

where Ξ⊆E\Xi \subseteq EΞ⊆E is a closed set known to contain the support of the true distribution. The worst-case risk of a loss function ℓ\ellℓ is

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Bε,p(P^N)EQ[ℓ(ξ)],R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)} \mathbb{E}_Q[\ell(\xi)],Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=Q∈Bε,p​(P^N​)sup​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)],

and minimizing it over a class of admissible loss functions L\mathcal{L}L is a distributionally robust optimization problem. ε\varepsilonε measures the estimation error one insures against; a larger ambiguity set gives a more conservative (and more expensive) guarantee.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 7, strong duality

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=inf⁡γ≥0 EP^N[ℓγ(ξ)]+γεp,ℓγ(ξ)=sup⁡z∈Ξℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p.R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \inf_{\gamma \ge 0}\ \mathbb{E}_{\hat P_N}[\ell_\gamma(\xi)] + \gamma\varepsilon^p,\qquad \ell_\gamma(\xi) = \sup_{z\in\Xi} \ell(z) - \gamma\|z-\xi\|^p.Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=γ≥0inf​ EP^N​​[ℓγ​(ξ)]+γεp,ℓγ​(ξ)=z∈Ξsup​ℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p.

This is the Lagrangian dual of the worst-case risk evaluation problem, with γ\gammaγ the multiplier of the Wasserstein constraint Wp(Q,P^N)≤εW_p(Q,\hat P_N)\le\varepsilonWp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε: it converts a supremum over an infinite-dimensional space of measures into a one-dimensional minimization of the Moreau-Yosida regularization ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​. Every tractability result later in the chapter (finite convex reformulations, SDP relaxations) specializes this duality by choosing a loss class for which ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​ is computable.

Supporting dual representations of WpW_pWp​ — Theorems 1 and 2

Wpp(Q,Q′)=sup⁡{∫ψ dQ′−∫φ dQ:φ,ψ bounded continuous, ψ(ξ)−φ(ξ′)≤∥ξ−ξ′∥p}W_p^p(Q,Q') = \sup\left\{\int \psi\,dQ' - \int \varphi\,dQ : \varphi,\psi \text{ bounded continuous},\ \psi(\xi)-\varphi(\xi') \le \|\xi-\xi'\|^p\right\}Wpp​(Q,Q′)=sup{∫ψdQ′−∫φdQ:φ,ψ bounded continuous, ψ(ξ)−φ(ξ′)≤∥ξ−ξ′∥p} W1(Q,Q′)=sup⁡Lip(φ)≤1∫φ dQ−∫φ dQ′W_1(Q,Q') = \sup_{\mathrm{Lip}(\varphi)\le 1} \int \varphi\,dQ - \int \varphi\,dQ'W1​(Q,Q′)=Lip(φ)≤1sup​∫φdQ−∫φdQ′

These identify WpW_pWp​ as a linear program's strong dual (Theorem 1) and, for p=1p=1p=1, specialize it to the Kantorovich-Rubinstein form (Theorem 2), which is what lets the worst-case-risk analysis reason about Lipschitz loss functions directly.

Upper and lower bounds — Theorems 5 and 6

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≤R(P^N,ℓ)+ε⋅Lip(ℓ)R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \le R(\hat P_N,\ell) + \varepsilon\cdot\mathrm{Lip}(\ell)Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≤R(P^N​,ℓ)+ε⋅Lip(ℓ) Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≥sup⁡{1N∑iℓ(ξ^i+θi):ξ^i+θi∈Ξ, 1N∑i∥θi∥p≤εp}R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \ge \sup\left\{\tfrac1N\textstyle\sum_i \ell(\hat\xi_i+\theta_i) : \hat\xi_i+\theta_i\in\Xi,\ \tfrac1N\textstyle\sum_i\|\theta_i\|^p\le\varepsilon^p\right\}Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≥sup{N1​∑i​ℓ(ξ^​i​+θi​):ξ^​i​+θi​∈Ξ, N1​∑i​∥θi​∥p≤εp}

These are the tractable, easily-computed bracket that Theorems 7 and 10 later show is tight in important special cases.

Exact case — Theorem 10

Ξ=Rm, ℓ convex, p=1  ⟹  Rε,1(P^N,ℓ)=R(P^N,ℓ)+ε Lip(ℓ)\Xi = \mathbb{R}^m,\ \ell \text{ convex},\ p=1 \implies R_{\varepsilon,1}(\hat P_N,\ell) = R(\hat P_N,\ell) + \varepsilon\,\mathrm{Lip}(\ell)Ξ=Rm, ℓ convex, p=1⟹Rε,1​(P^N​,ℓ)=R(P^N​,ℓ)+εLip(ℓ)

Theorem 5's inequality becomes exact under convexity — the cleanest closing corollary of the duality theory, obtained from Theorem 7 by evaluating the Moreau-Yosida regularization of a convex function explicitly.

Significance

Theorem 7 is the hinge on which the entire computational program of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization turns: every tractable reformulation in the source chapter (piecewise-concave losses via conic duality, quadratic losses via semidefinite programming, the shrinkage-estimator connection) is obtained by substituting a specific loss class into the right-hand side of Theorem 7 and showing the resulting Moreau-Yosida regularization is computable. Kuhn et al. themselves derive it as a corollary of Blanchet & Murthy (2019) and Gao & Kleywegt (2016) for the empirical case, generalized to Polish spaces by Blanchet & Murthy and Gao & Kleywegt independently — the paper cites [12] and [37] for the general statement. Formalizing it is what makes every later, more computational result in the chapter — the ones a solver is more likely to reach for next — rest on a mechanically verified foundation rather than a citation chain.

Status. The mathematical result is well established (multiple independent published proofs cited above); nothing here is open research. What this mission contributes is the first machine-checked formal statement of the duality theorem and its supporting dual representations (Theorems 1, 2, 5, 6, 10) on the Prove2Me platform — none of Wp's dual representation, the Wasserstein ambiguity set, or the worst-case risk functional exist there prior to this mission (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious proof strategy — write down the Lagrangian of the semi-infinite program (6), swap the order of the outer supremum over QQQ and the inner minimization over the multiplier γ\gammaγ, and invoke ordinary Lagrangian strong duality — fails because (6) is an infinite- dimensional linear program over measures, not a finite convex program: there is no compact feasible set or Slater point in a form that ordinary finite-dimensional duality applies to directly. The actual proof goes through the dual representation of the Wasserstein distance itself (Theorem 1, which is why it is a prerequisite milestone), reformulating the constraint Wp(Q,P^N)≤εW_p(Q,\hat P_N)\le\varepsilonWp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε via its own dual variables and swapping the resulting sup-inf using minimax theorems for semi-infinite programs, not ordinary Lagrangian duality for finite programs.

Formalization scope

EEE is a generic finite-dimensional real normed space (NormedAddCommGroup, NormedSpace ℝ, Borel-measurable), representing Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm with the paper's arbitrary fixed norm as a parameter rather than fixing the Euclidean norm. A coupling is formalized directly via MeasureTheory.Measure.map: π.map Prod.fst = Q ∧ π.map Prod.snd = Q'. Constrained infima/suprema (over couplings, over the ambiguity set, over Lipschitz test functions, over perturbation matrices) use Mathlib's guarded-binder idiom ⨅ x (_ : P x), f x, which correctly returns ⊤\top⊤ (resp. ⊥\bot⊥) outside the feasible set rather than a finite junk value.

Two deliberate, disclosed conventions keep the extremal-value definitions faithful without extended-real integration machinery, both recorded in MODERATION_NOTES.md:

  1. worstCaseRisk and the dual representations (Theorems 1, 2) are valued in EReal, not ℝ, so an unbounded supremum is recorded as +∞+\infty+∞ rather than collapsed to Mathlib's real-valued junk value 0 on an unbounded family.
  2. The goal theorem (7) and its Moreau-Yosida regularization restrict the loss function to bounded continuous ℓ\ellℓ (BoundedContinuousFunction E ℝ), narrower than the paper's general upper-semicontinuous, P^N\hat P_NP^N​-integrable loss class L\mathcal{L}L (Assumption 1). This keeps ℓγ(ξ)=sup⁡z∈Ξℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p\ell_\gamma(\xi) = \sup_{z\in\Xi}\ell(z)-\gamma\|z-\xi\|^pℓγ​(ξ)=supz∈Ξ​ℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p a finite real number for every nonempty Ξ\XiΞ, so the right-hand side's Bochner integral is well-posed; the milestones (Theorems 5, 6, 10) keep the more general real-valued (not necessarily bounded) loss class, since their statements do not require evaluating a pointwise supremum over Ξ\XiΞ.
  3. Ξ is required closed in Theorems 5, 6 and 7, matching the paper's own standing assumption (p. 6: "we let Ξ⊆Rm\Xi\subseteq\mathbb{R}^mΞ⊆Rm be a closed set that is known to contain the support of PPP") for the whole worst-case-risk framework, which is used silently in the paper wherever a theorem takes Ξ\XiΞ as an argument but was not carried into these theorems' own hypothesis lists in an earlier draft.
  4. The goal theorem (7) additionally requires P^N\hat P_NP^N​ itself supported on Ξ\XiΞ (P^N(Ξc)=0\hat P_N(\Xi^c)=0P^N​(Ξc)=0, the same "supported on Ξ\XiΞ" convention ambiguitySet uses for Q∈P(Ξ)Q\in\mathcal P(\Xi)Q∈P(Ξ)), which the paper's framework presupposes for the nominal distribution throughout §2. Combined with ℓ\ellℓ bounded, this makes ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​ bounded on the full-measure set Ξ\XiΞ (above by sup⁡ℓ\sup\ellsupℓ unconditionally, below by ℓ(ξ)\ell(\xi)ℓ(ξ) itself via z=ξz=\xiz=ξ for ξ∈Ξ\xi\in\Xiξ∈Ξ), which is what makes the right-hand side's integral genuinely well-posed rather than liable to Mathlib's non-integrable junk value 000.

There is no trivializing formalization risk from a vacuous hypothesis: Ξ.Nonempty and 0 < N are both required exactly where the paper's own indexing and support assumptions require them, and every extremal value uses the extended-real convention above rather than a convention that would make an inequality vacuously true.

No definition in this mission exists on the platform prior to this series (GET /theorems?q=Wasserstein, q=Kantorovich, q=optimal transport, q=coupling return only unrelated discrete/finite-type constructions); all seven definitions and six theorems are drafted fresh. WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance, .ambiguitySet and .worstCaseRisk are the substrate every later mission in this five-part series (Gelbrich tractability, finite-sample guarantees, regularization, shrinkage estimation) either imports directly or redefines locally per the series' reuse rule.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research, 130–166. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Villani, C. (2009). Optimal Transport: Old and New. Springer. (Cited as [108] for Theorems 1 and 2.)
  • Smith, J. E., & Winkler, R. L. (2006). The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Science, 52(3), 311–322. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451
  • Gao, R., & Kleywegt, A. J. (2016). Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance. arXiv:1604.02199.
  • Blanchet, J., & Murthy, K. (2019). Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport. Mathematics of Operations Research, 44(2), 565–600. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
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Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization II: The Gelbrich Ambiguity Set and Elliptical TractabilityTextbook

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) hedges a decision against every distribution within some ambiguity set around an estimated (nominal) distribution, rather than trusting the estimate exactly. When the ambiguity set is a ball of radius ε\varepsilonε around the empirical distribution P^N\hat P_NP^N​ in the type-ppp Wasserstein metric, the resulting worst-case risk problem inherits attractive statistical guarantees (Mohajerin Esfahani & Kuhn 2018) but is, in general, an optimization problem over an infinite-dimensional space of measures. Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's 2019 INFORMS TutORials chapter surveys when this problem becomes computationally tractable. One route — the subject of this mission — discards everything about the nominal distribution except its mean vector and covariance matrix and replaces the Wasserstein ball with a set built only from these two moments, the Gelbrich hull. The construction is due to Gelbrich (1990), who first bounded the Wasserstein distance between two distributions using only their means and covariances.

Setting

Fix Ξ⊆Rm\Xi \subseteq \mathbb{R}^mΞ⊆Rm, a nominal distribution P^N∈P(Ξ)\hat P_N \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi)P^N​∈P(Ξ), a radius ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and an exponent p≥1p \ge 1p≥1. The type-ppp Wasserstein distance between two probability measures Q,Q′Q, Q'Q,Q′ on Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm is

Wp(Q,Q′)=(inf⁡π∈Π(Q,Q′)∫∥ξ−ξ′∥p dπ(ξ,ξ′))1/p,W_p(Q,Q') = \Big(\inf_{\pi \in \Pi(Q,Q')} \int \|\xi-\xi'\|^p \, d\pi(\xi,\xi')\Big)^{1/p},Wp​(Q,Q′)=(π∈Π(Q,Q′)inf​∫∥ξ−ξ′∥pdπ(ξ,ξ′))1/p,

the infimum over couplings π\piπ (probability measures on Rm×Rm\mathbb{R}^m \times \mathbb{R}^mRm×Rm with marginals QQQ and Q′Q'Q′) of the ppp-th root of the expected ppp-th power of Euclidean distance. The Wasserstein ambiguity set is Bε,p(P^N)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp(Q,P^N)≤ε}B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : W_p(Q,\hat P_N) \le \varepsilon\}Bε,p​(P^N​)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε}, and the worst-case risk of a loss function ℓ\ellℓ is Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Bε,p(P^N)EQ[ℓ(ξ)]R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)} E_Q[\ell(\xi)]Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=supQ∈Bε,p​(P^N​)​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)].

Suppose P^N\hat P_NP^N​ has mean vector μ^\hat\muμ^​ and covariance matrix Σ^∈S+m\hat\Sigma \in S^m_+Σ^∈S+m​ (the positive semidefinite m×mm\times mm×m matrices). The mean-covariance uncertainty set is

Uε(μ^,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m:∥μ^−μ∥22+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2},U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma) = \Big\{(\mu,\Sigma) \in \mathbb{R}^m \times S^m_+ : \|\hat\mu-\mu\|_2^2 + \mathrm{Tr}\big[\hat\Sigma+\Sigma-2(\hat\Sigma^{1/2}\Sigma\hat\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}\big] \le \varepsilon^2\Big\},Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m​:∥μ^​−μ∥22​+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2},

where Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 is the positive-semidefinite square root. The Gelbrich hull is Gε(μ^,Σ^)={Q∈P(Ξ):(EQ[ξ],CovQ[ξ])∈Uε(μ^,Σ^)}G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : (E_Q[\xi],\mathrm{Cov}_Q[\xi]) \in U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)\}Gε​(μ^​,Σ^)={Q∈P(Ξ):(EQ​[ξ],CovQ​[ξ])∈Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)}: the distributions on Ξ\XiΞ whose own mean and covariance lie in Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^). An elliptical distribution Eg(μ,Σ)E_g(\mu,\Sigma)Eg​(μ,Σ) has density f(ξ)=C⋅det⁡(Σ)−1g((ξ−μ)⊤Σ−1(ξ−μ))f(\xi) = C \cdot \det(\Sigma)^{-1} g\big((\xi-\mu)^\top\Sigma^{-1}(\xi-\mu)\big)f(ξ)=C⋅det(Σ)−1g((ξ−μ)⊤Σ−1(ξ−μ)) for a density generator ggg and normalizing constant CCC; two elliptical distributions "have the same density generator" when their ggg coincide (e.g. both Gaussian, both Student-tνt_\nutν​ for the same ν\nuν).

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 13, Gelbrich hull). For every p≥2p \ge 2p≥2,

Bε,p(P^N)⊆Gε(μ^,Σ^).B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) \subseteq G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma).Bε,p​(P^N​)⊆Gε​(μ^​,Σ^).

This is an outer approximation: every distribution within ε\varepsilonε of P^N\hat P_NP^N​ in Wasserstein distance has a mean and covariance inside Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^), so optimizing over the Gelbrich hull instead of the Wasserstein ball can only enlarge the feasible set, never shrink it below the truth.

Supporting results. Theorem 4 (Gelbrich bound) gives the moment-only lower bound on W2W_2W2​ that Theorem 13 is built from, with equality for elliptical distributions sharing a generator. Proposition 1 sharpens the goal's containment to an equality on the mean-covariance projection itself, under the same two conditions (Ξ=Rm\Xi = \mathbb{R}^mΞ=Rm, P^N\hat P_NP^N​ elliptical). Corollary 1 propagates the goal's set containment to the risk level: Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≤Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \le R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell)Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≤Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ) for every ℓ\ellℓ, where Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Gε(μ^,Σ^)EQ[ℓ(ξ)]R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)} E_Q[\ell(\xi)]Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ)=supQ∈Gε​(μ^​,Σ^)​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)] is the Gelbrich risk.

Significance

Theorem 13 is the hinge between an intractable infinite-dimensional worst-case-risk problem and a tractable one: the paper goes on (Theorem 16, outside this mission's scope) to show that for quadratic loss functions and elliptical nominal distributions the Gelbrich risk itself equals the optimal value of a semidefinite program with two linear matrix inequality constraints — and that, under those same conditions, the Wasserstein worst-case risk, the Gelbrich risk and the SDP value all coincide. Corollary 1 is what makes the Gelbrich risk usable as a conservative surrogate even outside that special case: it upper-bounds the true worst-case risk for any loss function and any p≥2p \ge 2p≥2, at the cost of discarding all but first- and second-order information about the nominal distribution. Formalizing the goal and Corollary 1 gives the exact scope in which this moment-relaxation is licensed — the p≥2p \ge 2p≥2 restriction and the outer-approximation direction are both easy to get backwards, and this mission's Lean encoding fixes both irreversibly.

Difficulty

The obvious first argument is to prove containment pointwise: fix Q∈Bε,p(P^N)Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)Q∈Bε,p​(P^N​) and show its mean and covariance land in Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^). That reduces Theorem 13 to Proposition 1's containment half, which in turn reduces to the Gelbrich bound (Theorem 4) applied to the pair (Q,P^N)(Q,\hat P_N)(Q,P^N​) — the inequality direction of Theorem 4 suffices for containment; only the sharper equality direction (needed for Proposition 1's own equality clause) requires the elliptical hypothesis. The non-obvious step is Theorem 4 itself: bounding W2(Q,Q′)W_2(Q,Q')W2​(Q,Q′) below by a closed-form expression in the two distributions' first two moments only, for arbitrary Q,Q′Q,Q'Q,Q′ with those moments, requires an argument that survives every coupling π\piπ — the paper's proof goes through a lower bound on the coupling's cross-covariance term via the eigenvalues of Σ1/2Σ′Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}\Sigma'\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2Σ′Σ1/2, not a direct manipulation of W2W_2W2​'s definition.

Formalization scope

Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); a "distribution" is a MeasureTheory.Measure on it constrained by Q Set.univ = 1 (probability) and Q Ξᶜ = 0 (support in Ξ). The Wasserstein distance is ENNReal-valued (Definition 1's infimum over couplings, matching 01-duality's convention); the worst-case and Gelbrich risks are EReal-valued suprema restricted to loss functions integrable under the candidate distribution, avoiding Mathlib's junk value for a non-integrable Bochner integral. Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 is the positive-semidefinite matrix square root, picked by choice from its defining existential and applied in this mission only to matrices hypothesized (or, per Section 2.3's standing assumption, given) positive semidefinite. Elliptical distributions (IsElliptical) are represented by the paper's own density formula (a measure equal to volume.withDensity of C·det(Σ)⁻¹·g((ξ-μ)ᵀΣ⁻¹(ξ-μ)) for some C>0), together with the mean/covariance facts every theorem in this chunk reads off directly; an earlier draft kept only the latter, under which "same density generator" held vacuously for any moment-matched pair — corrected after moderation flagged it (see STATUS.md). Because 01-duality (Wasserstein distance, ambiguity set, worst-case risk) is not yet a published mission, this chunk redefines those objects locally in its own namespace rather than importing an unpublished draft, per the series' definition-reuse policy; a future upload can retire the duplication once 01-duality is live. A formalization that dropped Theorem 4's "same density generator" condition from its equality clause, or that stated the goal's containment for all p≥1p\ge 1p≥1 rather than p≥2p \ge 2p≥2, would be trivializing or simply false — both are explicit hypotheses in the Lean statements. Matrix.PosSemidef and its Loewner order carry the S+mS^m_+S+m​ constraints; no elliptical-distribution or Gelbrich-hull infrastructure exists elsewhere on the platform, so this mission's definitions are original contributions reusable by any later extension (Theorem 16/17, Lemma 1/2's SDP representations) of this series.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Gelbrich, M. (1990). On a formula for the L2 Wasserstein metric between measures on Euclidean and Hilbert spaces. Mathematische Nachrichten, 147(1), 185–203.
  • Mohajerin Esfahani, P., & Kuhn, D. (2018). Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric: performance guarantees and tractable reformulations. Mathematical Programming, 171(1), 115–166.
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Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization III: Finite-Sample and Asymptotic Performance GuaranteesTextbook

Motivation

A decision maker who solves a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem over a Wasserstein ball chooses a radius ε\varepsilonε by hand, and it is natural to ask what guarantee that choice actually buys: how large must ε\varepsilonε be, as a function of the sample size NNN and a desired confidence level, before the resulting worst-case risk is provably not an underestimate of the true (unknown-distribution) risk? Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's 2019 INFORMS TutORials chapter answers this for the mean-covariance relaxation of Wasserstein DRO introduced via the Gelbrich hull (Section 2.3): Theorem 21 gives a concentration inequality for how fast the sample mean and covariance approach the true mean and covariance, and Theorem 22 turns that concentration bound into a finite-sample statistical guarantee for the Gelbrich risk itself. This mission formalizes both.

Setting

Fix m∈Nm \in \mathbb{N}m∈N. Let PPP be the unknown true distribution on Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm with mean vector μ\muμ and covariance matrix Σ∈S+m\Sigma \in S^m_+Σ∈S+m​, and suppose PPP is light-tailed: there exist α>2\alpha > 2α>2 and A>0A > 0A>0 with EP[exp⁡(∥ξ∥2α)]≤AE_P[\exp(\|\xi\|_2^\alpha)] \le AEP​[exp(∥ξ∥2α​)]≤A. Let ξ^1,…,ξ^N\hat\xi_1,\dots,\hat \xi_Nξ^​1​,…,ξ^​N​ be NNN independent, identically distributed samples from PPP; write PNP^NPN for their joint law (the NNN-fold product measure) and μ^,Σ^\hat\mu, \hat\Sigmaμ^​,Σ^ for the resulting sample mean and sample covariance, i.e. the mean and covariance of the empirical distribution P^N=1N∑iδξ^i\hat P_N = \frac{1}{N}\sum_i \delta_{\hat\xi_i}P^N​=N1​∑i​δξ^​i​​. Recall from the Gelbrich construction the mean-covariance uncertainty set Uε(μ^,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m:∥μ^−μ∥22+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2}U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma) = \{(\mu,\Sigma) \in \mathbb{R}^m \times S^m_+ : \|\hat\mu-\mu\|_2^2 + \mathrm{Tr}[\hat\Sigma+\Sigma-2(\hat\Sigma^{1/2} \Sigma\hat\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}] \le \varepsilon^2\}Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m​:∥μ^​−μ∥22​+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2}, and the Gelbrich risk Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Gε(μ^,Σ^)EQ[ℓ(ξ)]R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)} E_Q[\ell(\xi)]Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ)=supQ∈Gε​(μ^​,Σ^)​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)] of a loss function ℓ\ellℓ over the Gelbrich hull Gε(μ^,Σ^)G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat \Sigma)Gε​(μ^​,Σ^).

Formalization targets

Milestone (Theorem 21, concentration inequalities II). There is c>1c > 1c>1, depending on PPP only through μ,Σ,α,A,m\mu,\Sigma,\alpha,A,mμ,Σ,α,A,m (not on any finer feature of PPP), such that for every η∈(0,1]\eta \in (0,1]η∈(0,1],

PN[(μ,Σ)∈Uε(μ^,Σ^)]≥1−ηwheneverε≥εN(η):=log⁡(c/η)N.P^N\big[(\mu,\Sigma) \in U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)\big] \ge 1-\eta \quad \text{whenever} \quad \varepsilon \ge \varepsilon_N(\eta) := \frac{\log(c/\eta)}{\sqrt N}.PN[(μ,Σ)∈Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)]≥1−ηwheneverε≥εN​(η):=N​log(c/η)​.

Goal (Theorem 22(a), finite sample guarantees II). Under the same hypotheses, for every η∈(0,1)\eta \in (0,1)η∈(0,1) and ε≥εN(η)\varepsilon \ge \varepsilon_N(\eta)ε≥εN​(η),

PN{R(P,ℓ)≤Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)    ∀ℓ∈L}≥1−η.P^N\Big\{R(P,\ell) \le R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell) \;\; \forall \ell \in L\Big\} \ge 1-\eta.PN{R(P,ℓ)≤Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ)∀ℓ∈L}≥1−η.

With probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η over the draw of the training sample, the Gelbrich risk computed from that sample upper-bounds the true risk of every admissible loss function simultaneously — not just of one fixed ℓ\ellℓ chosen in advance. (The paper's part (b), the analogous guarantee $P^N\{R(P,\ell^\star) \le R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell^\star)\} \ge 1-\eta$ for the specific optimizer ℓ⋆\ell^\starℓ⋆ of the Gelbrich risk minimization problem, is not formalized in this mission — see Formalization scope.)

Significance

Theorem 22 is what makes the Gelbrich-risk relaxation of Wasserstein DRO more than a computational convenience: it certifies that solving the tractable Gelbrich risk minimization problem gives a decision whose true out-of-sample risk is, with high probability, no worse than the value the solver reports — a genuine confidence guarantee, not merely an approximation of the Wasserstein worst-case risk. Theorem 21's rate, εN(η)=O(N−1/2)\varepsilon_N(\eta) = O(N^{-1/2})εN​(η)=O(N−1/2), is also of independent interest: it is dimension-free (no curse of dimensionality), in contrast to the paper's earlier general-distribution concentration result (Theorem 18, out of scope for this mission) whose rate degrades with mmm. Formalizing Theorem 21 fixes, machine-checkably, the exact functional form of εN(η)\varepsilon_N(\eta)εN​(η) and the precise sense in which ccc is "distribution-free" given (μ,Σ,α,A,m)(\mu,\Sigma,\alpha,A,m)(μ,Σ,α,A,m) — a subtlety easy to state informally but easy to get wrong formally (see Difficulty).

Difficulty

The central formalization difficulty is not proving the theorems (both are left as sorry in this draft) but stating the existential constant ccc correctly. The paper says ccc "depends on PPP only through μ,Σ,α,A,m\mu,\Sigma,\alpha,A,mμ,Σ,α,A,m" — informally, a promise that ccc is uniform across every distribution PPP sharing those five parameters, not merely that some ccc exists for each PPP separately (a vacuously true, much weaker statement obtained by naively quantifying ccc after PPP). The correct encoding places ∃c\exists c∃c before the universal quantifier over PPP: for fixed (μ,Σ,α,A,m)(\mu,\Sigma,\alpha,A,m)(μ,Σ,α,A,m), one ccc must work for every PPP with that mean, covariance, and tail bound. Getting this quantifier order backwards silently converts a genuine finite-sample guarantee into a triviality (FAITHFULNESS_TRAPS.md trap 8).

Formalization scope

Distributions live on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); PNP^NPN, the law of NNN iid samples, is the NNN-fold product measure MeasureTheory.Measure.pi (fun _ => P) on Fin N → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) — an event about the random sample sequence is a set of such tuples, and "PN[event]≥1−ηP^N[\text{event}] \ge 1-\etaPN[event]≥1−η" is that product measure's mass on the event set. All risk and uncertainty-set definitions (meanVector, covarianceMatrix, meanCovarianceUncertaintySet, gelbrichHull, gelbrichRisk, nominalRisk, empiricalDistribution) are redefined locally in this chapter's own namespace, matching 02-gelbrich's conventions exactly, since neither 01-duality nor 02-gelbrich is yet a published mission (CAPTAIN_ADDENDUM_WAVE2.md rule 5); a later upload can retire the duplication once those missions are live. The existential constant c is placed before the universal quantifier over P in both theorems, exactly capturing "depends on P only through µ,Σ,α,A,m" — see Difficulty. Only Theorem 22's part (a) (the uniform bound over a loss class L) is formalized; part (b) — the bound for the specific optimizer ℓ* of the Gelbrich risk minimization problem (19) — is left out, because it requires first formalizing "ℓ* is an optimizer of problem (19)" as an object (an infimum-attaining selection over a data-dependent optimization problem), which is additional infrastructure this mission's time budget did not cover; formalizing it as an unconditional bound over an arbitrary data-dependent ℓ* (dropping the optimality hypothesis) would be unfaithful — the guarantee genuinely depends on ℓ* being an optimizer, not an arbitrary measurable function of the sample. The goal theorem also carries hΞ, stating Ξ contains the support of P (the paper's own standing assumption, p. 6, for every later use of Ξ), and hLInt, an Integrable ℓ P guard for every ℓ ∈ L, matching Assumption 1 (p. 9); both were added after moderation found the goal's original statement, without them, admitted a counter-instance (Ξ = ∅ collapses the Gelbrich hull to empty and the risk supremum to ⊥, making the guarantee provably false rather than merely undisclosed). Theorem 18 (the general, dimension- dependent concentration inequality with its piecewise ε_N(η) formula) and Theorems 19/20/23 (its downstream guarantees and the asymptotic-consistency results) are out of scope for this mission, which targets the Gelbrich-risk branch (Theorems 21/22) specifically.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Fournier, N., & Guillin, A. (2015). On the rate of convergence in Wasserstein distance of the empirical measure. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 162(3), 707–738.
  • Gao, R., & Kleywegt, A. J. (2023). Distributionally robust stochastic optimization with Wasserstein distance. Mathematics of Operations Research, 48(2), 603–655.
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