Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals III: Even for I.I.D. Variables, No Nonadaptive Threshold Rule Beats the Factor 1 − 1/eResearch Paper
Motivation
In a prophet inequality, a decision maker observes random rewards one at a time and must choose without seeing future realizations. The benchmark is a prophet who sees all rewards and selects their maximum. A nonadaptive threshold rule chooses a threshold for each reward before observations begin, then accepts the first arriving reward that crosses its threshold. This model captures a simple class of stopping rules and, through the prophet inequality connection, informs posted price mechanisms in which prices are set before buyers arrive. Correa et al. (2021) prove that under uniformly random arrival order some such rule earns at least a 1−1/e fraction of the prophet's expected reward. The question here is whether that guarantee improves when the reward distributions are identical.
Setting
Fix an integer n≥2 and draw n2 independent rewards X1,…,Xn2 from the same three point law. A reward is Hn=n/(e−2) with probability 1/n3, is 1 with probability 1/n, and is 0 otherwise. The three probabilities are nonnegative and sum to one for n≥2. Thus a typical sample contains roughly n unit rewards, while a high reward is rare enough that its presence among all n2 draws has probability on the order of 1/n. Its magnitude is on the order of n, so it still makes a nonvanishing contribution to the prophet's expected reward.
Give each coordinate i a predetermined threshold τi∈[0,∞]. A uniformly random order reveals the sampled rewards, and the rule accepts the first Xi>τi. Conditional on a sample, let A(x,τ)={i:xi>τi}. Each accepted coordinate is equally likely to arrive first among A(x,τ), so the conditional expected reward is
Rn(x,τ)=∣A(x,τ)∣∑i∈A(x,τ)xi,Rn(x,τ)=0 if A(x,τ)=∅.
Write Vn(τ)=E[Rn(X,τ)] for the rule's reward and Pn=E[maxiXi] for the prophet's reward. These are expectations of nonnegative random variables. The thresholds may be infinite, allowing a coordinate to be discarded in advance.
Formalization targets
The goal is the paper's i.i.d. tightness claim: for every ε>0, sufficiently large members of this explicit family satisfy
∀τ∈[0,∞]n2,Vn(τ)<(1+ε)(1−1/e)Pn.
The universal quantifier includes every nonadaptive threshold vector, including asymmetric thresholds and coordinates that are never accepted. The proof in Appendix B supports the displayed statement for every sufficiently large n, which strengthens the existence of one hard instance stated in Section 3.1. Together with the paper's 1−1/e lower bound, this shows that the factor cannot be raised for this rule class even under identical distributions.
The milestones cover the prophet limit Pn→(e−1)/(e−2), reduction of arbitrary thresholds to two-level rules, the three contributions to a two-level rule's expected reward according to the number of high observations, Proposition A.3's scalar maximization, and the resulting uniform asymptotic bound on all two-level rules. The first k coordinates of a two-level rule accept both 1 and Hn; the remaining coordinates accept only Hn. These targets correspond to Section 3.1, Proposition A.3, and Appendix B of Correa et al..
Significance
The explicit i.i.d. family locates a limit of nonadaptive thresholds under random arrivals. Identical distributions remove heterogeneity as an explanation for the loss against a prophet: the obstruction remains even when every reward has the same law. Consequently, an improved guarantee requires a richer rule class or additional assumptions on the distribution. The paper studies an adaptive threshold rule separately and obtains a stronger i.i.d. guarantee; this mission isolates the upper bound for the nonadaptive class.
Formalizing this result supplies a reusable model for random-order threshold selection on a finite i.i.d. product space, including its conditional reward formula and extended nonnegative expectations. The paper proves the tightness result; the Lean declarations in this proposal state it and its supporting results as proof obligations. The published i.i.d. product-measure model from the Samuel-Cahn development already has machine-checked definitions and is reused here. The proposed upper-bound theorems have not yet been proved in Lean.
Difficulty
Bounding each coordinate's expected contribution in isolation loses the interaction between unit rewards and the rare high reward. When a high reward occurs, accepting many unit rewards can dilute its share of the random-order reward; rejecting unit rewards sacrifices ordinary samples. The reduction to two-level rules must apply to every threshold vector before the count of unit-accepting coordinates can be optimized. Appendix B then controls the cases of zero, one, and at least two high observations uniformly in that count. The one-high-value case contains a printed final inequality that drops a positive 1/n term; the formal target uses the preceding, valid bound, whose extra term vanishes in the limit.
Formalization scope
Lean represents a sample as Fin (n ^ 2) → ℝ and its law as a finite product measure. The index set is 0-based: the paper's X1,…,Xk are coordinates 0,…,k−1. The law is used only for n≥2, where it is a probability measure. Thresholds have type R≥0∪{∞}, and crossing is strict, matching Theorem 1's indicator Yi=1{Xi>τi}. The page describes its two-level rule with weak threshold language; under strict crossing the same acceptance sets use thresholds 0 and 1. The reward uses the paper's 0/0=0 convention. Expectations are lintegrals with values in $[0,\infty]`, avoiding a zero default for nonintegrable real integrals. The goal quantifies over all threshold vectors and uses the actual prophet expectation of the same law; no restricted rule class or surrogate benchmark can replace either one.
The general i.i.d. law, sample maximum, and expected maximum come from SamuelCahnProphet.IID.Setting. The paper's three point law, random-order reward, canonical two-level rule, and high-value count are local definitions. Useful contributions include exact finite-law calculations, dominance of two-level rules, uniform estimates in k, and the scalar exponential inequality of Proposition A.3. These parts can also support formal work on other finite-support prophet inequalities.
Selected references
Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk, and Vredeveld, Posted price mechanisms and optimal threshold strategies for random arrivals, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(4):1452–1478, 2021. DOI 10.1287/moor.2020.1105.
Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Annals of Probability 12(4):1213–1216, 1984. DOI 10.1214/aop/1176993150.
Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals II: For I.I.D. Variables, Adaptive Thresholds Achieve E[max Xᵢ] ≤ β*·E[X_t] with β* ≈ 1.341Research Paper
Motivation
A prophet inequality compares a gambler who sees nonnegative random rewards X1,…,Xn one at a time, and must accept or reject each on arrival, with a prophet who knows all values in advance and simply takes maxiXi. For independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) rewards the question is the best constant β such that some online rule always earns at least E(maxiXi)/β. The question matters in operations research and mechanism design because a seller who posts take-it-or-leave-it prices to arriving customers faces exactly this stopping problem on the customers' virtual values; prophet inequalities translate into revenue guarantees for posted price mechanisms relative to Myerson's optimal auction (Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan 2010).
Timeline (as recounted in §1 of the paper):
Hill and Kertz (1982) characterized, through a recursion, the smallest constants an with E(maxiXi)≤ansuptE(Xt) for n i.i.d. nonnegative variables, showed 1.1<an<1.6, gave instances where an cannot be beaten, and conjectured that (an) is monotone; the computation of its limit was left open.
Kertz (1986) proved an→β∗≈1.341, the solution of the integral equation (2) below, and conjectured that β∗ bounds every an; the best uniform bound then known was an≤e/(e−1)≈1.582.
Abolhassani et al. (2017) improved the uniform bound to 1/0.738≈1.355.
Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk and Vredeveld (EC 2017; Math. Oper. Res. 2021) proved E(maxiXi)≤β∗E(Xt) for a threshold rule t, so an≤β∗ for all n and 1/β∗≈0.745 is the tight i.i.d. guarantee.
Setting
Let X1,…,Xn be i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with distribution function F. A threshold rule fixes real numbers τ1,…,τn and stops at
t=min{i∈{1,…,n}:Xi≥τi},
receiving Xt. Because the thresholds may change with the step i, the rule is adaptive; for i.i.d. variables the number of variables already seen is all the history the rule needs.
The analysis works with quantiles. The generalized inverse is F−1(q)=inf{x≥0:F(x)≥q}, and τ(q)=F−1(1−q) is the threshold that accepts with probability q (with a coin toss to break ties at an atom). The function
R(q)=∫0qF−1(1−θ)dθ
is the expected reward from a variable accepted with probability q. The quantile stopping rule of Algorithm 2 partitions [0,1] into intervals Ai=[εi−1,εi], draws an acceptance probability qi∈Ai with density proportional to ψ(q)=(n−1)(1−q)n−2, and stops at step i with probability qi; its value is E(Xr). The analysis then passes through the normalizations γi=∫Aiψ and ρi, the recursion (8)–(9) on xi=1−εi, and the differential equation
y′(t)=y(t)(lny(t)−1)−(β−1),y(0)=1.(ODE)
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2
Let β∗>1 be the unique solution of
∫01y(1−lny)+(β−1)dy=1.(2)
For every n≥1 and every law of nonnegative i.i.d. X1,…,Xn there are thresholds τ1,…,τn with
E(max{X1,…,Xn})≤β∗E(Xt).
Milestones
In order: the quantile sandwich P(X≥τ(q))≥q≥P(X>τ(q)); the representation (7) E(maxiXi)=n∫01ψ(q)R(q)dq; the identity "expected reward of the quantile rule at q equals R(q)"; Lemma 4 (E(Xr)=∑iρi∫AiψR); Lemma 5 (E(maxiXi)=nγ1E(Xr) when all ρi agree); the equivalence of equal ρi with the recursion (8) and γ1=1−x1n−1; the closed form (9)–(10); Lemma 6 on (ODE); Proposition D.1; Lemma 7 (xin−1<y(i/n)); uniqueness of β∗ in (2); optimality of the dynamic-programming thresholds; domination of the randomized rule by them; and n(1−x1n−1)≤β∗.
A companion statement records the numerical guarantee 1/β∗>0.745.
Significance
The result. Theorem 2 gives the optimal constant of the i.i.d. prophet inequality and, through an=n(1−x1n−1), shows an≤β∗ for every n, which settles the problem posed by Hill and Kertz in 1982. Since an→β∗ (Kertz 1986), no rule of any kind achieves a better constant uniformly in n. Through the virtual-value connection it implies that, for customers with i.i.d. valuations, an adaptive posted price mechanism earns at least a 1/β∗>0.745 fraction of the optimal auction's revenue (Corollary 2 of the paper).
Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of any of its lemmas is known. The proof combines a measure-theoretic part (quantile functions, randomized tie-breaking at atoms, Tonelli and integration by parts), a combinatorial recursion, and real analysis of an autonomous ODE with a third-derivative Taylor argument. Formal versions of these parts are reusable: the quantile representation of E(maxiXi), the expected reward of a quantile rule, and the optimality of dynamic-programming thresholds are standard tools across prophet inequalities and optimal stopping.
Difficulty
The obvious attempt, computing the optimal dynamic-programming thresholds and bounding their value against E(maxiXi), does not lead to a closed-form constant: the optimal values satisfy a nonlinear recursion that depends on the whole distribution. The paper avoids it by analysing a randomized rule whose value is exactly a ψ-weighted average of R, which reduces the problem to a distribution-free recursion. Two steps then carry the weight. First, randomizing correctly at atoms of F so that every step accepts with probability exactly q; without this, R(q) is not the step reward. Second, comparing the discrete recursion (9) with the continuous (ODE): the comparison needs strict convexity and y′′′>0, and the latter holds only because β>1.25, a standing assumption validated at β∗ at the end. The existence of the partition with all ρi equal (a solution of (8) with x0=1, xn=0, xi∈(0,1)) is taken from Hill and Kertz and is not proved in the paper.
Formalization scope
Lean conventions:
The common law is a probability measure μ on R with μ((−∞,0))=0; the sample is the coordinate vector of SamuelCahnProphet.IID.iidLaw μ n (the published i.i.d. setting), and E(maxiXi) is its Emax. Coordinates are 0-based; the partition εi, γi, ρi and the recursion keep the paper's 1-based index.
All expectations of the random variables, R(q) and E(Xr) are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞]; no integrability is assumed in the goal, so infinite means are covered. Only bounded deterministic integrals (γi, ρi, (2)) are interval integrals.
Xt is 0 when no Xi reaches its threshold (the page leaves it undefined; 0 is the least favourable choice).
The quantile rule's coin at an atom is an independent uniform variable on [0,1]; acceptance probabilities are drawn independently with density ψ/γi on Ai.
β∗ enters through (2) and β∗>1, not through a choice function; uniqueness is a milestone.
Statements involving ψ, γi, ρi or the recursion assume n≥2 (for n=1, ψ≡0). Lemmas 6 and 7 carry §4's standing assumption β>1.25; Proposition D.1 carries β>1.25. Lemma 6 does not assert existence of a solution of (ODE) on [0,1], which fails for β>β∗.
The dynamic-programming milestones assume EX<∞ and use the optimal-stopping recurrence Vi=E[max(X,Vi+1)]; the page prints Vi=E(X∣X≥τi), which is a slip.
The page's "β∗≈1.341>1/0.745" has its inequality reversed and is not formalized.
A degenerate β cannot trivialize the goal: β is pinned by (2) and β>1, and the goal is stated for every n≥1 and every nonnegative law, including laws with infinite mean.
A complete development needs the quantile function of a law on R, Tonelli's theorem on product measures, uniqueness for ODEs with locally Lipschitz right-hand side (ODE_solution_unique), and Taylor's theorem; the existence of the Hill–Kertz partition is a further proof obligation. Contributions to any milestone, and reusable lemmas on quantile functions and finite-horizon optimal stopping, are welcome.
Selected references
J. Correa, P. Foncea, R. Hoeksma, T. Oosterwijk, T. Vredeveld, Posted price mechanisms and optimal threshold strategies for random arrivals, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(4):1452–1478, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1105
T. P. Hill, R. P. Kertz, Comparisons of stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables, Annals of Probability 10(2):336–345, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993861
R. P. Kertz, Stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables: a complete comparison by conjugate duality, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 19(1):88–112, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-259X(86)90095-3
M. Abolhassani, S. Ehsani, H. Esfandiari, M. T. HajiAghayi, R. Kleinberg, B. Lucier, Beating 1−1/e for ordered prophets, Proc. 49th ACM STOC, 61–71, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3055399.3055479
S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. L. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter mechanism design and sequential posted pricing, Proc. 42nd ACM STOC, 311–320, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1145/1806689.1806733
A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness III: With Additive Valuations, Donating the Pool to an Unenvied Agent Yields a 4/7-Groupwise-Maximin-Share AllocationResearch Paper
Motivation
When indivisible goods are shared among people, comparing each person's bundle with another person's bundle is only one way to judge fairness. A second test asks whether a group could repartition the goods it collectively received so that one of its members would reliably obtain more. Groupwise maximin share (GMMS) makes this test for every subgroup. It strengthens the ordinary maximin-share benchmark, which tests only the grand coalition and all goods. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa use this distinction to study a complete allocation obtained from their almost envy-free allocation: goods initially left unassigned are given to one unenvied agent. Their Theorem 16 proves that the resulting allocation gives every agent at least four sevenths of her groupwise maximin share under additive valuations. Chaudhury et al., pp. 4–5, 15–16.
The paper first constructs a partial EFX allocation whose unallocated goods have bounded value to every agent. Its Section 3 then assumes additive valuations and derives maximin-share and GMMS guarantees. This mission addresses the GMMS consequence of that construction. The existence of the starting allocation is the subject of the first mission in this series; the present theorem specifies what happens when its pool is donated. Chaudhury et al., Theorems 8 and 16.
Setting
Let N be a finite set of agents and M a finite set of indivisible goods. Each agent i has a valuationvi(S) for a bundle S⊆M. Here valuations are nonnegative and additive: vi(S) is the sum of the values of the individual goods in S. A partial allocationX=(Xi)i∈N gives pairwise disjoint bundles to the agents. The remaining goods form its pool, P=M∖⋃i∈NXi. An allocation is complete when its pool is empty. These are the paper's allocation conventions. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3–4.
An allocation is envy-free up to any good (EFX) if, after any single good g is removed from agent j's bundle, agent i values that remainder no more than her own bundle: vi(Xj∖{g})≤vi(Xi) for all i,j and g∈Xj. The envy graph has a directed edge i→j when i values j's bundle more than her own. A source is a vertex with no incoming edge, so nobody envies that agent. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3, 8.
For a set S and a positive number k of parts, MMSi(k,S) is the largest worst-part value agent i can secure by partitioning S into k bundles. A complete allocation Y is α-GMMS when each agent meets an α fraction of this benchmark for every subgroup containing her:
vi(Yi)≥αMMSi∣N′∣,j∈N′⋃Yj(N′⊆N,i∈N′).
The benchmark uses only goods allocated to that subgroup. The paper states it both as a complete-allocation property in its introduction and in Definition 15. Chaudhury et al., pp. 5, 15.
Formalization targets
The donated allocation
Assume X is partial and EFX, every agent satisfies vi(P)≤vi(Xi), and s is a source of its envy graph. Define Ys=Xs∪P and Yj=Xj for j=s. The goal states that Y is complete, that donation does not lower any agent's own value, and that
vi(Yi)≥74MMSi∣N′∣,j∈N′⋃Yj(N′⊆N,i∈N′).
This is the GMMS bullet of Theorem 16 applied to the particular allocation the authors define immediately before it. The paper obtains a suitable X from Lemma 12, which has the relevant properties of Theorem 8. Chaudhury et al., pp. 11–12, 14–16.
Intermediate results
The milestones are Proposition 13, the reduction step in Theorem 16's proof, and all three parts of Lemma 17. Proposition 13 compares maximin shares after deleting agents and at most as many goods. Lemma 17 bounds the value of each bad good, the donated bundle, and the other good bundles. They retain the constants 2 and 3/2 used in the paper. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14, 16–17.
Significance
The result turns an almost envy-free partial allocation into a complete allocation with a guarantee for every coalition. A plain maximin-share statement would only compare each agent with a partition of all goods among all agents; here every subgroup and its allocated goods count. The distinction matters even when an ordinary maximin-share bound is easy to meet because there are fewer goods than agents. Chaudhury et al., p. 5.
The paper proves Theorem 16 mathematically. The remaining work for this mission is a machine-checked proof of its stated GMMS consequence and its supporting results. Its definitions of partial allocation, pool, finite maximin share and groupwise guarantee can also serve later formalizations of fair division. The Nash-social-welfare half-guarantee in the printed theorem depends on the starting allocation from Lemma 12; this mission records only the value preservation under donation. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14, 16.
Difficulty
Giving all leftover goods to one agent makes the allocation complete, but it can change how another agent values that enlarged bundle and how a subgroup's benchmark is calculated. EFX alone compares bundles after deleting one good; GMMS compares an agent with every repartition of a subgroup's goods. The difficulty is to control those repartitions while keeping the exact 4/7 constant. Merely applying an ordinary maximin-share bound to the grand coalition does not establish the required subgroup inequalities. Chaudhury et al., pp. 15–17.
Formalization scope
Agents and goods are represented by Fin n and Fin m; Lean numbers agents from zero, and the paper's “agent 1” is an explicit source s. Bundles are finite sets. Valuations are real-valued but include nonnegativity alongside additivity, representing the paper's codomain R≥0. The pool is computed from X, and the donated allocation is a function of X and s. No independent pool or arbitrary completed allocation is allowed. Completeness is a conclusion. The maximin share is a finite maximum of finite minima over labelled partitions, which may have empty parts. Every use has a positive part count; in the GMMS definition this follows from i∈N′. Cardinality is converted to real numbers before fractions are formed. These choices exclude zero-part maximin shares and integer division. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3–5, 15–16.
The theorem is conditional on the EFX and pool-value properties of the source allocation, rather than repeating its existence proof. It states the conclusion for every such allocation and every source. The paper's half-optimal-Nash-social-welfare bullet is outside this mission because it invokes the separate black-box starting allocation of Lemma 12. Contributions toward finite-partition comparisons, EFX value bounds, and the groupwise estimate are welcome. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14–17.
Selected references
B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn and A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021. Formalization source: arXiv:1907.04596v3.
A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness II: With Additive Valuations Such an Allocation Gives Every Agent Her Maximin Share Divided by 2 − |P|/nResearch Paper
Fair division of indivisible goods
A set of n agents must share a set M of m indivisible goods, each agent valuing bundles of goods by her own valuation. Two fairness notions dominate the literature. Envy-freeness up to any good (EFX), introduced by Caragiannis, Kurokawa, Moulin, Procaccia, Shah and Wang (EC 2016), asks that no agent prefer another's bundle once any single good is removed from it. The maximin share (MMS), proposed by Budish (JPE 2011), asks that every agent receive at least what she could secure by splitting the goods into n bundles herself and taking the worst one.
Neither notion is known to be achievable in full. Whether complete EFX allocations always exist is open in general. Complete MMS allocations need not exist: Procaccia and Wang (EC 2014) gave a counterexample with three agents, and the best known approximation factors for additive valuations are 3/4−ε (Ghodsi et al., EC 2018) and 3/4 (Garg and Taki, arXiv:1903.00029). Amanatidis, Birmpas and Markakis (IJCAI 2018) showed that every complete EFX allocation is a 4/7-MMS allocation.
Caragiannis, Gravin and Huang (EC 2019) showed that EFX can be achieved if some goods are left unallocated, with no bound on how many. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa (arXiv:1907.04596, SODA 2020, SIAM J. Comput. 2021) relax completeness instead: some goods may be "donated to charity". Their Theorem 8 produces an EFX partial allocation in which nobody envies the donated set and the donated set has fewer goods than there are unenvied agents. This mission formalizes their Theorem 14: such an allocation also gives every agent a maximin-share guarantee that improves as more goods are donated.
Setting
Agents are N=[n] and goods are M, ∣M∣=m. Agent i has a valuation vi:2M→R≥0, assumed additive: vi(S)=∑g∈Svi({g}) for every S⊆M.
A (partial) allocationX=⟨X1,…,Xn⟩ gives agent i the bundle Xi⊆M, the bundles being pairwise disjoint. The pool of unallocated goods is P=M∖⋃iXi, and k=∣P∣.
X is EFX if vi(Xi)≥vi(Xj∖{g}) for all agents i,j and every g∈Xj.
The envy graphGX has the agents as vertices and an edge i→j exactly when vi(Xi)<vi(Xj). A source is a vertex of indegree zero: an agent nobody envies.
The maximin share of agent i over k′≥1 bundles of a set S of goods is
MMSi(k′,S)=(S1,…,Sk′)max1≤j≤k′minvi(Sj),
the maximum over partitions of S into k′ possibly empty bundles. Agent i's maximin share in the instance is MMSi(n,M).
The three conditions of Theorem 8 on (X,P) are:
X is EFX;
vi(Xi)≥vi(P) for every agent i;
∣P∣ is less than the number of sources of GX; in particular ∣P∣<n.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 14 (MMS bullet)
For every allocation X with pool P satisfying conditions 1–3, and every agent i,
vi(Xi)≥2−nkMMSi(n,M),k=∣P∣.
The factor ranges from 21 when P=∅ to (1+n1)−1 when ∣P∣=n−1.
Milestones
Proposition 13 (quoted by the paper from Garg, McGlaughlin and Taki, SOSA 2019): for N′⊆N and M′⊆M with ∣N∖N′∣≥∣M∖M′∣ and i∈N′,
MMSi(∣N′∣,M′)≥MMSi(∣N∣,M).
MMS is at most the proportional share: MMSi(k′,S)≤vi(S)/k′ for additive valuations and k′≥1.
The EFX half-bound: if X is EFX and ∣Xj∣≥2, then vi(Xi)≥(1−1/∣Xj∣)vi(Xj)≥21vi(Xj).
The counting step (summing inequalities (1)–(3) of the proof): with N′ the sources of GX, agent i and all agents holding at least two goods, n′=∣N′∣ and M′=⋃j∈N′Xj,
(2n′−k)vi(Xi)≥vi(M′∪P).
Significance
Theorem 14 shows that leaving goods unallocated is not merely a cost: under conditions 1–3, each donated good buys a quantitative improvement of every agent's maximin-share guarantee, interpolating between the factor 21 the bound gives when the pool is empty and a factor tending to 1 when nearly n goods are donated. Together with Theorem 8 it shows that a single allocation can be simultaneously EFX, envy-free towards the charity, small in its charity, and approximately MMS. The same reduction (Proposition 13 applied to a carefully chosen sub-instance) is the template for the paper's 4/7-groupwise-maximin-share result, Theorem 16, formalized in mission III of this series.
The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it, of Proposition 13, or of the existence of EFX allocations with bounded charity is known to exist. The mission produces a formal maximin-share definition on arbitrary subsets of goods with an arbitrary number of bundles, a formal proof of the monotonicity of the maximin share under removal of agents and goods (Proposition 13, which the paper quotes without proof), and the guarantee itself. Combined with mission I of this series (Theorem 8), it yields the printed existence statement.
Difficulty
The guarantee compares an agent's own bundle with a benchmark defined over all partitions of all goods, while EFX and the source condition speak only about the allocation at hand. The obvious attempt, summing vi(Xi)≥21vi(Xj) over all agents and adding the pool, gives only a factor near 21 and ignores the pool's size. Agents holding a single good are the obstruction: EFX gives no bound on the value of their bundles relative to vi(Xi), and the benchmark MMSi(n,M) is defined on the full instance, which contains them. Proposition 13, the comparison of maximin shares across instances, is a combinatorial statement about all partitions of the original instance and requires nonnegativity of the valuations: with a good of negative value it fails.
Formalization scope
Agents are Fin n (0-based) and goods Fin m; the set M is the whole of Fin m. Valuations are functions Fin n → Finset (Fin m) → ℝ; additivity is the sum formula together with nonnegativity, which is the paper's codomain R≥0. An allocation is a family of pairwise disjoint finsets and the pool is always computed as the complement of their union, never taken as a free parameter. Sources are agents of indegree zero in the envy graph (nobody envies them), not agents who envy nobody. The maximin share MMS(k′,S) is a supremum over labellings Fin m → Fin k' restricted to S of the minimum bundle value; it is used only with k′≥1, which every statement has in its hypotheses or derives from them (in the goal, condition 3 forces n≥1). Every cardinality is cast to R before division or subtraction, and 2−k/n>1 under condition 3, so no division by zero occurs.
The goal is posed as an implication for every allocation satisfying conditions 1–3, rather than as the paper's "there exists an allocation"; the paper's proof of the MMS bullet uses only those three conditions, and existence is Theorem 8. The Nash-social-welfare bullet of Theorem 14 is not posed: it depends on Lemma 12, which takes the allocation of an earlier paper as a black box. The goal cannot be trivialized by a free pool, by overlapping bundles, by zero agents (condition 3 excludes them), by a junk maximin share over zero bundles, or by natural-number division; the statement keeps all three conditions, each of which is needed.
Contributions welcome: a library-quality maximin-share API for additive valuations (attainment of the maximum, monotonicity, the proportional bound), which is reusable for other MMS results; proofs of the milestones; and the final assembly.
Selected references
B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn, A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, SIAM J. Comput. 50(4), 2021; cited from arXiv:1907.04596v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.04596
E. Budish, The Combinatorial Assignment Problem: Approximate Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes, J. Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
I. Caragiannis, D. Kurokawa, H. Moulin, A. D. Procaccia, N. Shah, J. Wang, The Unreasonable Fairness of Maximum Nash Welfare, EC 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2940716.2940726
M. Ghodsi, M. HajiAghayi, M. Seddighin, S. Seddighin, H. Yami, Fair Allocation of Indivisible Goods: Improvements and Generalizations, EC 2018. https://doi.org/10.1145/3219166.3219238
J. Garg, S. Taki, An Improved Approximation Algorithm for Maximin Shares, CoRR abs/1903.00029, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.00029
I. Caragiannis, N. Gravin, X. Huang, Envy-Freeness up to Any Item with High Nash Welfare: The Virtue of Donating Items, EC 2019. https://doi.org/10.1145/3328526.3329574
A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing III: Variational Solutions Are the Nash Equilibria of the Extended Cloudlet-Pricing GameResearch Paper
Why a cloudlet price matters
Mobile devices can divide work between local execution, a nearby shared cloudlet, and a remote cloud. A cloudlet has limited capacity, so one user's choice changes the delay faced by the others. Cardellini and coauthors model this as a generalized Nash equilibrium problem, in which each user's feasible choices depend on the aggregate cloudlet load. The shared utilization cap makes a direct distributed solution awkward: a user must know how much capacity all other users consume before choosing a feasible deviation. The paper therefore introduces an additional player who sets a cloudlet price. This mission formalizes the relationship between the original coupled game and that extended, ordinary Nash game Cardellini et al., accepted manuscript, pp. 10–16.
The offloading game
There are N users and n cloudlet servers. User u chooses fractions xu,m, xu,clet, and xu,cloud for local, cloudlet, and remote-cloud execution. These fractions are nonnegative and sum to one. At most a fraction χ can be offloaded, and a user-specific linear power constraint applies. The set Ku contains these private feasible choices. The cloudlet load and the shared feasible set are
Each user's cost λuRu is the response-time expression on p. 10, with coefficients αu,βu,γu,δu. The VI mapF is the stack of the user's partial gradients, written in closed form on p. 11. A variational solutionxˉ belongs to K and satisfies ⟨F(xˉ),x−xˉ⟩≥0 for every x∈K. The pairing sums all three coordinates for each user. Section 5 assumes 0<Umax<1 and 0<αu,δu<1 for every user; the model also has n>0 and 0<χ≤1Cardellini et al., pp. 7, 9–11.
The extended game replaces the joint cap in each user's feasible set by a price. User u minimizes λuRu(x)+ρ(δu/n)xu,clet over Ku. A cloudlet manager chooses ρ≥0 to maximize ρ(L(x)−Umax). The manager's choice is part of the Nash equilibrium condition, not a preimposed complementary-slackness equation. The extended game's VI set is Ke=(∏uKu)×R+ and its map is Fe(x,ρ)=(F(x)+price(ρ),Umax−L(x))Cardellini et al., p. 15.
Formalization targets
The goal is the two-part assertion of Theorem 2. Under the standing assumptions and a strict load bound on the full product of private feasible sets, its equilibrium characterization is
xˉ∈SOL(K,F)⟺∃ρˉ,(xˉ,ρˉ)∈NEext.
The same goal states that monotonicity of F on ∏uKu implies monotonicity of Fe on Ke. The three milestones follow the paper's path: the extended Nash game is equivalent to its VI; the shared affine constraint has a scalar multiplier at a VI solution; and the price-load coupling cancels in the monotonicity pairing. The source states the first as a classical result and gives the last two in its proof Cardellini et al., pp. 15–16.
What the result provides
The characterization lets a variational solution of a game with coupled feasible sets be found as an equilibrium of a game whose N users have separate feasible sets. The additional scalar has a concrete interpretation: it is the multiplier of the shared cloudlet-utilization cap. The monotonicity assertion connects the paper's analysis of the original VI to methods for the extended one. The paper uses this relationship as the entry point for its distributed algorithms in the next section Cardellini et al., pp. 16–17.
The result is proved in the paper but is not yet machine checked in this mission. A complete development would give reusable Lean interfaces for a finite-dimensional VI on an intersection of a product polytope and one affine half-space, a multiplier characterization for that intersection, and an equilibrium-to-VI conversion for separable player constraints. Those components could support other capacity-sharing games. The theorem drafts remain proof obligations; the definitions compile locally.
Where the proof is delicate
A Nash equilibrium requires each user to be optimal against every privately feasible deviation, including deviations that violate the original shared cap. Consequently, the user's cloudlet cost must remain well defined throughout Ku for the equivalence to hold. A load bound only on K does not cover those deviations. The multiplier comparison must also account for the manager's maximization condition and the sign of the load term in Fe. For monotonicity, Fe evaluates F on the whole product ∏uKu, a larger domain than K. These domain distinctions explain why the statement needs two explicit repairs to the printed theorem Cardellini et al., pp. 15–16.
Formalization scope
Lean represents the users as Fin N and the three processing locations as a finite tier type. Indices therefore start at zero. The costs, the map F, the private sets, Ω, and K are separate definitions. The Euclidean pairing is written as a finite sum; no Pi-type sup norm is used. The extended Nash predicate quantifies over user deviations in Ku and over every nonnegative manager price. The VI predicates are in their own module so the game is not built into their meaning. The theorem's statement remains meaningful at N=0; no positive-user hypothesis is added to Section 5's assumptions.
The first repair requires L(x)<1 at every x∈∏uKu. The paper's Theorem 1 condition (18) implies this bound, but is stronger than needed. Without the bound, a private deviation can cross the pole of δuxu,clet/(1−L(x)); Lean's total division then assigns a value at a zero denominator even though the paper's cost has none. In a two-user instance with n=1, δu=0.9 and Umax=0.5, the pole can lie within one user's private feasible interval. The second repair reads “the original game is monotone” on ∏uKu, because that is precisely the x-domain of Ke. Monotonicity on K alone is insufficient. Both repairs are disclosed in the item notes, and the source wording remains visible in the milestone quotations.
An empty K would make a solution statement vacuous; the formal development should retain concrete feasible parameter instances. The map F is the paper's displayed formula, rather than a derivative chosen to make a milestone tautological. The VI uses all user coordinates, and the extended game does not silently reinstate the shared constraint in user deviations. Contributions toward the stated multiplier theorem, Nash-to-VI equivalence, and the cancellation identity are welcome, along with reusable finite-dimensional convex-analysis lemmas.
Selected references
V. Cardellini, V. De Nitto Personé, V. Di Valerio, F. Facchinei, V. Grassi, F. Lo Presti, and V. Piccialli, A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing, accepted manuscript for Mathematical Programming, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6.
A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness I: Under Monotone Valuations an EFX Allocation Exists Whose Unenvied Pool Has Fewer Goods Than There Are Unenvied AgentsResearch Paper
Motivation
Allocating indivisible goods fairly is difficult because a single good can change how an agent compares two bundles. Exact envy-freeness can be impossible (one good, two agents), so the field works with relaxations. Envy-freeness up to any good (EFX) requires each agent to prefer her own bundle to every other agent's bundle after any one good of that other bundle is removed. Whether EFX allocations of all goods always exist is open; the question motivates weakening the requirement that every good be assigned, and asking how little must be left over. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa show that leaving a small, unenvied set of goods unallocated (donated to "charity") suffices for every normalized monotone valuation profile (arXiv:1907.04596v3, Theorem 8, pp. 11–12).
Timeline (as recounted on pp. 2–3 of the source):
2004: Lipton, Markakis, Mossel and Saberi introduce the envy-graph and cycle-elimination technique and compute allocations now called EF1 (DOI 10.1145/988772.988792).
2018: Plaut and Roughgarden prove EFX allocations of all goods exist for two agents, or for any number of agents with identical valuations (arXiv:1707.04769).
2019: Caragiannis, Gravin and Huang introduce EFX with charity: a partial EFX allocation in which each agent gets at least half her value in a Nash-optimal allocation, with no bound on the number or value of donated goods (arXiv:1902.04319).
2020: Chaudhury, Garg and Mehlhorn prove existence of complete EFX allocations for three agents with additive valuations (arXiv:2002.05119).
2020/2021: the present paper bounds the charity: fewer goods than unenvied agents, and no agent envies the donated set. Its SODA 2020 version assumed gross-substitute valuations; the journal version (arXiv v3) needs only normalized monotone valuations (p. 8, §1.4).
The two bounds matter separately. The empty allocation is EFX and donates everything; a cardinality bound alone still lets the donated goods carry most of an agent's value; the value bound alone allows almost all goods to be donated. The paper's later maximin-share and groupwise-maximin-share guarantees (Theorems 14 and 16, treated in the next missions of this series) are derived from exactly the allocation produced here.
Setting
There are n≥1agents, indexed by N={1,…,n} in the paper, and a finite set M of mindivisible goods. Agent i has a valuation vi:2M→R≥0. It is normalized if vi(∅)=0 and monotone if S⊆T implies vi(S)≤vi(T). No additivity, submodularity or substitutes condition is assumed. These are the general valuations of §1.1.1, p. 3, and §2 of the source.
A partial allocationX=(Xi)i∈N consists of pairwise disjoint bundles Xi⊆M. Its pool is the goods not assigned to anyone,
P(X)=M∖i∈N⋃Xi.
The allocation is EFX when
vi(Xj∖{g})≤vi(Xi)for all i,j∈N and every g∈Xj.
The paper calls allocations partial by default (p. 3, footnote 5). The envy graphGX has the agents as vertices and an edge i→j when vi(Xi)<vi(Xj). A source is a vertex with no incoming edge. Its reachability component C(s) includes s itself. The social welfare of X is ϕ(X)=∑ivi(Xi). These notions are introduced on pp. 8–9 of the source.
For a set S of goods, an envied set is one some agent values more than her own bundle. An inclusion-wise minimal envied subsetZ is envied, but no strict subset of Z is envied by anyone. An agent who envies such a Z is a most envious agent of S; the paper allows ties. The three update rules U0, U1 and U2 use these sets to change an allocation while maintaining EFX (Definition 3 and Algorithm 2, p. 9).
Formalization targets
The goal is the allocation guarantee of Theorem 8:
∃X partial:X is EFX,vi(P(X))≤vi(Xi)(i∈N),∣P(X)∣<∣sources(GX)∣≤n.
Both the stronger source-count bound and its consequence ∣P(X)∣<n are stated. The theorem asserts existence for every normalized, monotone valuation profile, including nonadditive profiles. It does not require the returned envy graph to be acyclic; acyclicity is an invariant used during construction, rather than an additional advertised property of the final allocation.
The attack path consists of the paper's numbered Lemmas 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Lemma 2 concerns removal of envy cycles; its Lean form keeps the page's conditional "if X is EFX then X′ is EFX" and the unconditional strict welfare increase. Lemma 4 records what U0 does and what its failure implies. Lemma 5 records U1's welfare and EFX guarantees. Lemma 6 supplies the finite source, good and agent data required for U2. Lemma 7 states U2's welfare and EFX guarantees. Their source wording and page locations appear in the milestone list; the Lean statements include the exact allocation updates where those lemmas rely on them.
Significance
The theorem guarantees a partial EFX allocation even for general monotone valuations, while limiting the unallocated pool more tightly than the number of agents: its size is below the number of unenvied agents. Every agent also values that entire pool no more than her own bundle. These two bounds distinguish the allocation from a merely EFX partial allocation. They provide the starting point for the paper's later statements on approximate maximin shares under additive valuations (Theorems 14 and 16).
The mathematical result is proved in the paper. The mission asks for a machine-checked proof of its allocation guarantee and of the supporting lemmas, with a reusable Lean account of finite partial allocations, the unallocated pool, envy graphs, minimal envied subsets and the update rules. Such definitions are useful for other fair-division questions involving unallocated indivisible goods.
Difficulty
EFX must hold after the allocation is changed, for every agent pair and for removal of every good from the other agent's new bundle. Simply giving a pool good to an agent may violate that condition, even though it makes the pool smaller. Conversely, replacing a bundle with an envied subset can improve welfare while returning goods to the pool. The source-count bound depends on controlling both kinds of progress. Rule U2 adds a further complication: its bundle moves follow envy paths, so an overlap between selected paths would make the new allocation ambiguous. These are the points at which the straightforward approach of distributing the remaining goods one at a time stops working.
Formalization scope
Lean represents agents by Fin n, goods by Fin m, bundles by finite sets of goods, and valuations by real-valued functions on bundles. The paper's one-based subscripts become zero-based Lean indices. Nonnegative values need no separate hypothesis: normalization and monotonicity imply them. The hypothesis n>0 is explicit because the paper presumes agents and the strict bound ∣P∣<n is false when n=0. The pool is computed as the complement of the union of pairwise disjoint assigned bundles. It is never a free set. EFX ranges over every pair i,j, including i=j, and every good of Xj.
The minimal-envied-subset definition checks every strict subset against every agent. The most envious agent is a relation, allowing the paper's arbitrary tie choice. Reachability includes a path of length zero. U2's new allocation is calculated from its paths and chosen subsets. Lemma 6 includes Algorithm 1's acyclic-graph invariant and the ordering property established in its proof. It replaces the printed threshold ∣P∣≥n with ∣P∣≥∣sources(GX)∣, the exact number of fresh goods its construction needs and the threshold used by the goal. Lemma 7 takes that ordering property to make path assignments unambiguous.
The printed U2 pool expression in Algorithm 2, line 13, is malformed; the formal statement uses the pool of the constructed allocation and the corrected union of leftover goods. Theorem 8's final sentence also asserts an nmV/Δ iteration bound. This mission poses the allocation conclusions, while a future run-level formalization would be needed to state and check the iteration count. The paper's preceding count of U1/U2 steps and successive U0 steps does not by itself imply the printed number. Definitions and the numbered lemma statements are welcome contributions; a purported proof that uses a free empty pool, overlapping bundles, zero agents or an arbitrary replacement allocation would not establish this target.
Selected references
B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn and A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, arXiv:1907.04596v3, 2020; published in SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021. Pinned preprint.
R. J. Lipton, E. Markakis, E. Mossel and A. Saberi, On approximately fair allocations of indivisible goods, ACM EC 2004. https://doi.org/10.1145/988772.988792
I. Caragiannis, D. Kurokawa, H. Moulin, A. D. Procaccia, N. Shah and J. Wang, The unreasonable fairness of maximum Nash welfare, ACM EC 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2940716.2940726
I. Caragiannis, N. Gravin and X. Huang, Envy-freeness up to any item with high Nash welfare: the virtue of donating items, ACM EC 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04319
The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games III: The Price of Anarchy of the Maximum Social Cost Is Theta(sqrt N)Research Paper
Motivation
In a congestion game, several users choose facilities and each facility becomes more costly as more users choose it. Such games model settings in which each participant chooses a route or collection of resources for personal use while the resulting load is shared. A pure Nash equilibrium is a stable choice of routes: no single participant can lower their own cost by switching. Stability alone gives no assurance that the resulting allocation serves the group well. The price of anarchy compares the social cost of an equilibrium with the best social cost attainable by coordinated choices.
Christodoulou and Koutsoupias studied finite congestion games with linear latency functions and several notions of social cost. For the maximum cost borne by any player, their STOC 2005 paper gives both an upper bound valid for all such games and a family of instances showing that its square-root dependence on the number of players has the right order. This mission formalizes those two claims together. The maximum criterion matters when a single heavily delayed user is significant even if the total cost of the population is moderate.
Setting
Let N≥1 be the number of players and let E be a finite set of facilities. Player i has a finite collection Σi of available pure strategies, each a subset of E. A profileA chooses one strategy Ai∈Σi for every player. For a facility e, its loadne(A) is the number of players whose chosen strategy contains e. The latency of e at load n is fe(n). Player i pays the sum of the latencies on the facilities they chose:
ci(A)=e∈Ai∑fe(ne(A)).
A profile is a pure Nash equilibrium if no player can decrease this cost by replacing their own strategy while the others keep theirs. The paper calls latencies linear when fe(n)=aen+be with ae,be≥0; these are affine functions in standard terminology. The paper displays many calculations for the special case fe(n)=n and states the general nonnegative affine convention in its model section. The maximum social cost is MAX(A)=maxici(A); the total cost is SUM(A)=∑ici(A). The paper's average social cost is SUM(A)/N.
For a game with at least one pure Nash equilibrium and a positive optimal maximum cost, the maximum-cost pure price of anarchy is the largest equilibrium value of MAX divided by the smallest feasible value. The Lean targets use inequalities against every feasible comparison profile P rather than dividing by an optimum. This form continues to say something when an optimum has cost zero, and finite strategy sets ensure an optimum exists whenever the profile space is nonempty.
Formalization targets
Universal upper bound
For every N≥1, every finite game with nonnegative affine latencies, every pure Nash equilibrium A, and every feasible profile P, Theorem 5's proof yields
MAX(A)≤(1+25N)MAX(P).
This states a numerical version of the paper's O(N) theorem without an unspecified constant. Taking P to minimize MAX gives the corresponding price-of-anarchy bound. The bound is about asymmetric games: players may have different strategy sets, and no symmetry assumption is present.
Lower-bound family
For every integer k≥2, let N=k(k−1)+1. Theorem 6 provides an identity-latency congestion game with N players and kN facilities, a pure Nash profile A, and an optimal profile P for which
MAX(A)=k2,MAX(P)=k.
Every feasible profile in the instance has maximum cost at least k. Thus the ratio is k, and k≥N. The proof's explicit instance has positive comparison cost, so the lower bound cannot be satisfied by a zero-cost game. The source also says such behavior occurs in network congestion games and sketches a network realization in Figure 2; this mission's formal lower target is the finite congestion-game construction.
Significance
Together these results identify the order of growth of the worst pure equilibrium maximum cost relative to an optimum: it can grow with the population, yet for linear latencies it grows no faster than a constant times N. The upper statement applies to any feasible comparison profile, so it can also be used when a convenient benchmark is known without solving the entire optimization problem. The lower family prevents replacing the square-root dependence by a bound independent of N for this class of games.
The results are proved in the 2005 paper; the mission is to give them machine-checked Lean proofs in a common finite-game representation. The development also supplies reusable definitions of congestion games, loads, pure cost equilibria, and maximum social cost, together with the total-cost estimate of Theorem 1 and the intermediate bounds appearing in Theorem 5. The current draft contains statements with sorry placeholders, not completed proofs.
Difficulty
A bound on total player cost does not directly control the cost of the most expensive player sharply enough. An individual player can use several facilities whose loads interact, and bounding each load separately loses the dependence required for the square-root result. Affine coefficients add another issue: the proof printed for identity latencies writes a cardinality where the general statement needs a coefficient-weighted quantity. The lower example has an indexing discrepancy in the printed alternative strategies, so the intended Nash profile must be checked against the costs on every permitted deviation.
Formalization scope
Players are represented by Fin N; facilities by an arbitrary finite type in upper bounds and by a type with kN elements in the lower family. A profile is a function from players to finite facility sets, with feasibility stated separately. Latencies are real-valued on natural-number loads. The IsLinear predicate requires explicit nonnegative affine coefficients. Pure Nash uses a cost inequality; it is the negative-payoff version of a standard finite game's payoff equilibrium. MAX requires at least one player, and all upper-bound targets therefore require N≥1. The lower family begins at k=2, where N=k(k−1)+1 is positive.
The source's number k2−k+1 is written as k(k−1)+1 in Lean to keep natural-number subtraction inside its valid range. The two expressions agree for k≥2. In the source's one-based indexing, the proposed alternative strategy uses a ceiling index. The printed denominator k makes some alternative facilities carry k+1 users and breaks the Nash assertion; denominator k−1 agrees with Figure 2's k−1 short-route users per layer and gives the stated costs. This correction is recorded with the lower theorem. No normalization of coefficients or artificially restricted strategy class is assumed. Contributions to the finite-game definitions, Theorem 1, the player-cost bounds, and the explicit lower instance are all in scope.
Selected references
G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proceedings of the 37th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 2005. DOI: 10.1145/1060590.1060600.
On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 4: In the Mean-Sign Game the Sign Feedback Is an ε_n-Nash Equilibrium and the Mean Converges in Law to ½δ_{H⁺}+½δ_{H⁻}Research Paper
Motivation
Mean field games describe the limit of symmetric stochastic differential games with n players as n→∞. A basic question of the theory is which mean field equilibria are limits of Nash equilibria of the n-player games. For closed-loop equilibria, in which each player's control may depend on the states of all players, this question was open in general until D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2020). That paper shows that limits of closed-loop εn-Nash equilibria are weak mean field equilibria, a class that can be strictly larger than the classical (strong) one.
Section 7.3 of the paper gives an explicit game in which the difference is visible. It has exactly three strong equilibria (Lacker, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165, 2016, Proposition 3.6, cited as [43] in the paper) and infinitely many weak ones. The weak equilibria form a family indexed by a switching time t0∈[0,T], and for t0∈(0,T) they are not mixtures of strong equilibria (Remark 7.1). Proposition 7.2, the subject of this mission, treats t0=0: the natural symmetric feedback is an n-player approximate Nash equilibrium, and its population mean selects the equal mixture of the two strong equilibria m±1 rather than the third one, m0. The selection mechanism is regularization by noise: the mean of the population solves an ill-posed ODE, and the small noise of the n-player system picks out a particular random solution (Trevisan, Electron. Commun. Probab. 18, 2013, cited as [57] in the paper).
Setting
Fix a horizon T>0. In the mean-sign game each of n players controls a real state
Xti=∫0tαsids+Wti,X0i=0,
with controls αsi∈A=[−1,1] and independent standard Brownian motions W1,…,Wn. The mean process is μtn=n1∑k=1nXtk, the mean of the empirical measure μtn=n1∑kδXtk. Player i maximizes the expected terminal reward
Jin=E[XTiμTn],
that is, b(t,x,m,a)=a, f≡0, g(x,m)=xm with m=∫ym(dy), and initial law λ=δ0.
A Markovian control of player i is a Borel function β:[0,T]×Rn→[−1,1] of time and the current states of all players. A profile (α1,…,αn) is a Markovian ε-Nash equilibrium if no player can raise their payoff by more than ε by switching to another Markovian control while the others keep theirs (Definition 2.1).
With sgn(x)=1,−1,0 for x>0, x<0, x=0, the sign feedback (7.13) with t0=0 is
α0n,i(t,x1,…,xn)=sgn(n1k=1∑nxk)1(0,T](t),
the same for every player. Finally H0±(t)=±t on [0,T] (7.11).
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 7.2
For the profile αn=(α0n,1,…,α0n,n):
∃εn≥0,εn→0:αnis a Markovian εn-Nash equilibrium for each n,L((μtn[αn])t∈[0,T])⟹21δH0++21δH0−on C([0,T];R).
The goal also asserts that the n-player system under αn has a solution, so that the equilibrium property cannot hold vacuously.
Milestones
The equilibrium payoff: J1n(αn)=E[∣μTn∣2]→T2 (proof of Proposition 7.2, p. 49).
Lemma 7.4, the part about the mean Yn and player 1's noise W1 when player 1 deviates to a n1-optimal control (7.15): the laws of (Yn,W1) are tight, and every limit (Y,W) has L(Y)=21δH0++21δH0−, solves Yt=∫0tsgn(Ys)ds, and has Y independent of W.
The upper bound (7.14): limsupnsupβJ1n(β,α0n,2,…,α0n,n)≤T2.
Significance
Proposition 7.2 is a concrete instance of the paper's main theme. Theorem 2.7 says that limits of closed-loop equilibria are weak equilibria; this example exhibits explicit, symmetric, Markovian approximate equilibria whose limit is a genuinely random equilibrium (the sign of the mean is a fair coin), selected by noise among infinitely many candidates, and it identifies the limiting law of the population mean exactly. The paper states that the analogous claim for t0∈(0,T), where the limit would be a weak equilibrium that is not a mixture of strong ones, is not resolved; a formal treatment of the t0=0 case makes the structure of that question precise.
Nothing of this proposition is machine-checked. Formalizing it requires weak solutions of SDEs with discontinuous drift, Nash equilibria over Markovian feedback controls, and weak convergence of laws on path space, all stated so that the junk values of Lean's total functions never enter. The objects defined here (the n-player game with quantified weak solutions, its payoffs and Markovian ε-Nash equilibria) are shared with the other missions of this series.
Difficulty
The obvious argument for εn→0 compares player 1's payoff under a deviation with T2. A deviation changes the drift of the mean only by O(1/n), but the dynamics of the mean, dYt=sgn(Yt)dt+n−1/2dWt, is ill-posed in the limit: the ODE y˙=sgn(y), y0=0, has infinitely many solutions ±(t−s)+. Continuity of the solution map, the usual tool, is unavailable, and one must instead identify the limit law, which comes from the vanishing noise, and show that it is unchanged by the deviation. The second difficulty is that the payoff XT1YT is unbounded, so convergence of laws does not give convergence of payoffs without a uniform integrability estimate. The proof in the paper is short, but relies on a cited result on the vanishing-noise limit and on a compactness argument in a weak L2 topology for the deviating controls.
Formalization scope
Dimension and state.d=1; R1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin 1) (the platform's EthierKurtz.SDEState 1) and its coordinate is y 0. Controls are real, A=[−1,1].
Pathwise equations. Volatility is the identity, so the SDE of each player is stated as Xti=X0i+∫0tbds+Wti almost surely for all t∈[0,T], with a Lebesgue integral of a bounded measurable integrand.
Solutions are quantified. A weak solution of the n-player system is a structure (probability space, filtration, independent F-Brownian motions, i.i.d. initial states independent of the noise, adapted path-valued states, the empirical flow). Payoffs are functions of a solution; the Nash inequality and every limit statement are required for every solution. Solutions exist and are unique in law, so this matches the paper's definitions; the goal asserts existence explicitly.
Index shift. Term n of every sequence is the (n+1)-player game; the factor n1 in the controls and the mean is then n+11.
sgn and time.sgn is Real.sign (sgn0=0), and the control vanishes at t=0, both as printed.
Unbounded payoff. Assumption A fails (g is unbounded) and is not assumed anywhere. Payoffs are Bochner integrals; XTiμTn is integrable on every solution (bounded drift, X0i=0), which is a fact to be proved rather than an assumption.
Laws. Laws on C([0,T];R) carry the topology of weak convergence; the mean path is a continuous function of the state paths, so its law is a probability measure by construction.
Lemma 7.4. Only the (Y,W) coordinates are stated: tightness, (i), the equation for Y in (ii), and (iv). The coordinates X and β, which need the weak topology of L2([0,T];[−1,1]), and item (iii) are not stated; the norm topology must not be substituted, because the deviating controls are not tight in it.
Ruled out. A statement in which the profiles have no solutions would make the Nash clause vacuous; the existence clause of the goal excludes it.
Contributions welcome: the existence of weak solutions for bounded measurable Markovian drifts, the vanishing-noise limit of dZ=sgn(Z)dt+ϵdW, and Girsanov-type change-of-measure estimates are all reusable beyond this mission.
Selected references
D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020; arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
D. Lacker, A general characterization of the mean field limit for stochastic differential games, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165(3–4), 581–648, 2016 (reference [43] of the paper).
D. Trevisan, Zero noise limits using local times, Electron. Commun. Probab. 18, 2013 (reference [57] of the paper).
R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets 3: Two Agents with Identical Additive Preferences and Generic Budgets Have a Competitive Equilibrium Giving Truncated SharesResearch Paper
Motivation
How should a set of indivisible items (courses, shifts, inherited objects) be divided among people who have different entitlements but no money to transfer? A classical answer for divisible goods is the competitive equilibrium from equal incomes (CEEI): give every agent a budget of artificial currency, find prices at which every agent can afford her favourite bundle and the market clears. The resulting allocation is Pareto optimal and fair. With indivisible items a CEEI can fail to exist already for one item and two agents with equal budgets: at any price, either both agents can afford the item or neither can.
Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (arXiv:1703.08150; Math. Oper. Res. 2021, doi:10.1287/moor.2020.1062) study this Fisher market with indivisible goods when budgets are generic: unequal budgets, with a measure-zero set of exceptional budget pairs excluded. Their main result is for two agents with almost equal budgets. This mission formalizes the companion result for two agents with identical additive preferences and arbitrary unequal budgets (Theorem 8.1 of the paper, its informal Theorem 1.4). With identical preferences the division problem is a discrete claims (bankruptcy) problem: one cake of fixed value is split between claimants with different entitlements b1,b2.
Timeline of the relevant results:
Budish (2011, doi:10.1086/664613): approximate CEEI with almost equal budgets for many agents, with an approximate market-clearing error.
Segal-Halevi (AAMAS 2018, arXiv:1705.04212), a follow-up to the preprint of this paper: for four agents with arbitrary budgets, non-existence of CE persists even with generic budgets.
Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (preprint 2017, journal 2021): exact CE for two additive agents with almost equal unequal budgets (Theorem 7.1), and for two agents with identical preferences and generic budgets (Theorem 8.1).
Setting
There are m indivisible items M and two agents. Agent i has a valuationvi:2M→R that is additive, normalized (vi(M)=1), non-negative, monotone and strict (different bundles have different values), and a budgetbi>0, with b1+b2=1. An allocationS=(S1,S2) gives every item to exactly one agent. Item prices pj≥0 price a bundle at p(S)=∑j∈Spj.
A bundle S is demanded by agent i at prices p if p(S)≤bi and p(T)>bi for every bundle T with vi(T)>vi(S). A competitive equilibrium (CE) is a pair (S,p) in which each Si is demanded by agent i. An allocation is Pareto optimal (PO) if every other allocation is strictly worse for some agent. It is budget-proportional if vi(Si)≥bi for both agents, and anti-proportional if vi(Si)≤bi for both, strictly for one.
The truncated share of agent i is
bi−=max{vi(Si′):S′ PO,vi(Si′)≤bi},
the best she can get in a PO allocation that gives her at most her budget share; an allocation gives her the truncated share if vi(Si)≥bi−. The exceptional setRi (Definition 6.2) consists of the budget pairs (bi,1−bi) for which two PO allocations S(r),S(r+1), consecutive in agent i's order of preference, satisfy bi/vi(S(r+1)i)=(1−bi)/(1−vi(S(r)i)). It is finite. The rectangleTi (Definition 6.1) is a set of allocations between the truncated-share maximizers of the two agents.
In Lean all objects live in GenericBudgets.IdenticalPrefs: bundle, price, IsDemanded, IsCE, IsPO, IsStandardValuation, IsBudgetProportional, IsAntiProportional, GetsTruncatedShare, IsTruncMaximizer, InRectT, InR.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 8.1 (p. 20)
If v1=v2, b1>b2, and (b1,b2)∈/Ri for some agent i, then
∃(S,p) a CE with vj(Sj)≥bj− for j=1,2.
Milestones
Proposition 5.1 (p. 12): every budget-proportional, and every anti-proportional, PO allocation is supported in a CE.
Lemma 6.3 (p. 15): no budget-proportional allocation, no PO anti-proportional allocation, (b1,b2)∈/Ri and Ti=∅ imply a CE with truncated shares.
Constant-sum claim (p. 20): with identical preferences every allocation is PO and none is anti-proportional.
Lemma 8.2 (p. 20): if every allocation is PO and (b1,b2)∈/Ri for some i, a CE exists; if moreover no PO allocation is anti-proportional, the same CE gives truncated shares.
Significance
Theorem 8.1 shows that the non-existence of CEEI for identical preferences is a knife-edge phenomenon: for every market with identical strict additive preferences, every unequal budget pair outside a finite set admits a CE, and the CE allocation is as close to budget-proportional as indivisibility allows. It gives a market-based solution to the indivisible claims problem with unequal entitlements, and its CE inherits Pareto optimality from the first welfare theorem (Theorem 2.4 of the paper).
The formalization targets three things on top of the paper. First, a machine-checked proof of the paper's main technical tool, Lemma 6.3, which also drives the paper's main Theorem 7.1 (mission 1 of this series), where it is applied to almost equal budgets instead of identical preferences. Second, precise definitions of the truncated share, the rectangle Ti and the exceptional set Ri, whose informal versions leave conventions implicit (the maximization runs over PO allocations only; Ri is indexed by consecutive PO allocations). Third, verification of the proof chain Proposition 5.1 → Lemma 6.3 → Lemma 8.2 → Theorem 8.1. The statements compile, but none of these results has a machine-checked proof yet.
Difficulty
The reduction of Theorem 8.1 to Lemma 8.2 and the proof of Lemma 8.2 from Proposition 5.1 and Lemma 6.3 are short. The substance is in Lemma 6.3, which must exhibit prices supporting a PO allocation when no allocation gives both agents their budget shares. Demand is a condition over all 2m bundles, so a candidate price vector has to be checked against every bundle each agent prefers, and the paper's construction breaks down on the exceptional budget pairs Ri, which is why they are excluded; the argument is a case analysis over the finite Pareto frontier. The easy case, Proposition 5.1, covers only markets with a budget-proportional or anti-proportional PO allocation; with identical preferences and unequal budgets neither typically exists (no allocation is ever anti-proportional), so Lemma 6.3 cannot be avoided.
Formalization scope
Items are Fin m; agents are Fin 2, with indices 0,1 for the paper's agents 1,2, so b1>b2 is b 1 < b 0. Valuations are functions Finset (Fin m) → ℝ bundled with the standing assumptions in IsStandardValuation; identical preferences are the hypothesis v 0 = v 1. An allocation is a map Fin m → Fin 2, so every item is allocated exactly once. Budgets are positive reals summing to 1. All quantities are real.
Committed conventions and disclosed restrictions:
Strictness is injectivity of each valuation on bundles. The paper allows one exception, identical items; that exception is dropped, so markets with identical items are not covered by these statements.
The budget-proportional share is written bivi(M), which equals bi under normalization.
The truncated share is stated without a max: vi(Si)≥vi(Si′) for every PO S′ with vi(Si′)≤bi.
"(b1,b2) does not belong to Ri for some agent i" is read as an existential over i.
Ri is encoded with consecutive PO allocations and the cross-multiplied equation, equivalent to the page's quotient form.
The constant-sum sentence of p. 20 says "at most their truncated share"; the definition it paraphrases (anti-proportional, p. 12) uses the budget-proportional share, and that is what is stated.
Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the demand condition quantifies over every bundle with strict inequality, allocations must assign every item, prices are non-negative, the truncated share is maximized over PO allocations only (not over all allocations), and the budget hypothesis excludes only the finite set Ri for one agent, never all unequal budgets.
Proposition 5.1 and Lemma 6.3 are posed with the same statement as in mission 1 of this series; a proof of either transfers verbatim. Contributions welcome: the finite-frontier infrastructure (existence and uniqueness of the truncated-share maximizer), Proposition 5.1 through budget-exhausting combination pricing, and Lemma 6.3.
E. Budish, The Combinatorial Assignment Problem: Approximate Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
E. Segal-Halevi, Competitive Equilibrium for Almost All Incomes, Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems (AAMAS), 2018, pp. 1267–1275. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04212
Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks I: Every Supply Chain Network Has a Unique General Equilibrium of Rerouting Prices, Switching Costs and Default CascadesResearch Paper
Motivation
A failed buyer can leave a supplier with goods it can no longer sell through an existing order. A failed supplier can leave a buyer without inputs for future production. In a network, either loss can weaken another firm and start a sequence of defaults. Birge, Capponi and Chen model these effects together with two responses: suppliers reroute unsold goods to other buyers, and buyers seek replacement suppliers. Their accepted manuscript asks whether the resulting market decisions and the default cascade determine a single outcome. The issue matters when a network's resilience or fragility is measured from that outcome: a measure based on an unspecified equilibrium would not be well defined.
Setting
A supply chain order network has finitely many firms i,j and goods m. An order oijm is the nonnegative quantity of good m that firm i promises to deliver to firm j. The network also records each good's original price pm, each firm's initial equity wi, its safety stock θim and holding cost λim, and a realized net production cost ci. The realization is fixed throughout this mission; the source treats it as random when comparing network performance later in the paper. Rerouting one unit costs firm i an amount ιim; an unfilled unit of demand incurs back-order cost bim. These costs and the orders and stocks are nonnegative. The basic model is on pp. 8–17 of the manuscript.
If firm j defaults, a promised delivery to it is not made. Write γijm for this undelivered order, and rˉim=∑jγijm for firm i's total amount of good m available to reroute. If a supplier j defaults, write δjim for the buyer i's lost input. After using safety stock, that buyer's unserved demand is σˉim=(∑jδjim−θim)+, where x+=max(0,x). These are the quantities in equations (1)–(5).
The rerouted market for good m contains firms with rˉim>0. At price πim, firm i can sell up to rˉim. Aggregate demand at price π is dm(π), with inverse demand dm−1. The sourcing market contains firms with σˉim>0. At switching cost κim, firm i can replace up to σˉim units. Aggregate supply is sm(κ), with inverse supply sm−1. In either market, an efficient allocation maximizes the stated integral objective over the capacity box, and allocates proportionally to capacity among firms quoting the same price or cost. A partial equilibrium additionally makes every active firm's quoted price or cost a best response to all nonnegative unilateral deviations. These are Definitions 2.1–2.2 and 3.1–3.2.
A firm's ex-post net worthei∗ combines original-order revenue, production and stock costs, rerouting revenue and cost, and back-order and replacement-supplier costs exactly as in equation (10). A firm defaults when its net worth is strictly negative. Starting with no undelivered orders or unserved demand, the update maps Φ∗ and Ψ∗ mark all orders affected by firms that default after each market has reached its partial equilibrium. A market stable state is both the limit of that sequence and a fixed point of the update. A general equilibrium combines such a state with a partial equilibrium in every market (Definitions 3.3–3.4 and equation (18)).
Formalization targets
The goal is Proposition 4.3, stated on p. 24:
∃!(Π,K,Γ,Δ)GeneralEquilibrium(Π,K,Γ,Δ).
The quadruple consists of rerouting prices Π, switching costs K, undelivered orders Γ, and unserved demand Δ. The claim includes existence and uniqueness of the full outcome, not merely of its default set. The milestone list follows the paper's dependency path: Propositions A.3 and A.6 identify the unique efficient allocations in the two markets; Propositions 4.1 and 4.2 identify their partial equilibria; Lemma A.7 states that greater disruption cannot increase any firm's partial-equilibrium net worth; and Lemma A.8 states that the default updates are bounded and increasing. The numbered results and their equations are in the E-Companion, EC pp. 4–12, and the main text, p. 22.
Significance
Proposition 4.3 makes the network's outcome a function of its order commitments, stocks, prices, market functions, and realized production costs. Later comparisons of network structures can therefore refer to the equilibrium without choosing among several price or default profiles. The result also separates local market choice from the way losses spread through the network: a firm can reroute or switch optimally and still fail once the effects of other failures are accounted for.
The paper proves the result in its E-Companion, EC pp. 12–13. This mission concerns a Lean statement of that known result and the reusable definitions needed to check a proof. The draft propositions are open proof obligations; this proposal does not claim machine-checked proofs of them. The two market allocation predicates, the default update, and the cascade limit can also support later formal work on the paper's resilience results.
Difficulty
The market and network conditions interact. An arbitrary fixed point of the default update need not be the state reached from zero; using only the fixed-point equation loses the uniqueness asserted by the paper. Conversely, knowing a cascade limit does not by itself show that the limit is fixed, because the update changes discontinuously when a firm's net worth crosses zero. At the market level, the price and switching-cost equilibria must be established from optimization and best-response conditions. Writing the formulas for the claimed equilibrium prices into those definitions would leave the central market claims unproved.
Formalization scope
Firms are Fin N and goods are Fin M, with N,M>0; the source numbers both from one, while Lean numbers them from zero. Orders and all default matrices are real valued and coordinatewise ordered. Active markets may be empty, as at the start of the cascade. Market objectives are ordinary real interval integrals over finite capacity boxes. The standing conditions include the paper's smoothness, concavity, and monotonicity assumptions on demand wherever it is positive and on the supply function, plus inverse identities and continuity on the quantity ranges used by the model. The inverse functions remain general data tied to dm and sm; no linear demand or supply curve is imposed.
Several domain conventions make the displayed formulas meaningful. Assumption 2.1's minimum order is read over positive-order suppliers of a good; over all firms it would force zero safety stock whenever a nonsupplier exists. The inverse supply is nonnegative on feasible quantities, with sm(0)≤0, so the claimed switching cost belongs to the nonnegative strategy space. Demand inverse at zero is fixed to the reservation price. Assumptions 4.1–4.2 apply at each positive active-market total; for the general-equilibrium goal they are required for every binary 0/oijm profile the cascade can visit. Differentiability at those totals is explicit. Initial equity and the order, stock, holding, rerouting, and back-order data are nonnegative; the realized net production cost can have either sign. The model uses the p. 23 convention for prices and costs outside active markets.
An efficient allocation remains an optimizer of equations (7) or (9), with proportional tie handling; a partial equilibrium remains a best response to every admissible deviation. The general equilibrium includes both the limit from zero and the fixed-point condition. These clauses exclude an equilibrium that is true by definition or a fixed point unrelated to the default cascade. The source's informal statement that every firm “supplies, consumes, or purchases” a good has no separate activity flag in this model; a firm with no internal order can still have outside production or consumption represented in ci. Milestone statements involving arbitrary disruption profiles restrict them to the feasible order box [0,O], where the market inverses are defined.
Selected references
John R. Birge, Agostino Capponi, and Peng-Chu Chen, Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks, accepted manuscript dated October 31, 2022, SSRN 3669363; published in Operations Research, 2023, DOI 10.1287/opre.2022.2409.
On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 2: Every Strong MFE Is the Limit in Law of Markovian ε_n-Nash Equilibria of the n-Player GamesResearch Paper
Motivation
Mean field games (Lasry–Lions 2006, Huang–Malhamé–Caines 2006) describe Nash equilibria of stochastic differential games with very many symmetric players. In this description each player interacts with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states. The mean field game is meant to be the limit of the n-player games as n→∞. Making that link rigorous has two halves:
a limit theorem: every limit of n-player equilibria is a mean field equilibrium;
a converse: every mean field equilibrium is the limit of n-player approximate equilibria.
For closed-loop equilibria, where players react to the observed states of all others, both halves are harder than for open-loop equilibria. A single player's deviation changes the feedback of the whole system.
This mission covers the converse half of D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020).
Timeline.
Carmona–Delarue (2013) and Huang–Malhamé–Caines constructed ϵn-Nash equilibria from mean field equilibria, under Lipschitz or linear-quadratic structure, with continuous feedbacks.
Cardaliaguet–Delarue–Lasry–Lions (2015, arXiv:1509.02505) obtained such a converse implicitly from a smooth master equation.
Lacker (2018) proved the converse for every strong mean field equilibrium. His hypotheses are bounded continuous coefficients and a drift that is Lipschitz in total variation, and the feedback may be discontinuous. The key input is a propagation-of-chaos result in total variation (Lacker, On a strong form of propagation of chaos for McKean–Vlasov equations, arXiv:1805.04476).
Setting
Fix a horizon T>0, a compact convex action set A in a real normed space, an initial law λ∈P(Rd) and coefficients
with independent Brownian motions Wi and i.i.d. initial states of law λ.
Player i receives Jin(α)=E[∫0Tf(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,Xt))dt+g(XTi,μTn)].
The profile is a Markovian ϵ-Nash equilibrium if no player gains more than ϵ by switching to another Markovian control.
Relaxed controls take values in P(A) and average b and f against them.
The mean field game. A flow m∈C([0,T];P(Rd)) is a strong MFE if some Borel feedback α∗:[0,T]×Rd→A satisfies two conditions:
the state dXt∗=b(t,Xt∗,mt,α∗(t,Xt∗))dt+dWt, X0∗∼λ, has law mt at every time;
α∗ maximizes E[∫0Tf(t,Xt,mt,α(t,Xt))dt+g(XT,mT)] among all Borel feedbacks α.
A strong RMFE is the relaxed analogue.
The assumptions are:
Assumption A: A compact convex; b,f,g bounded and jointly continuous.
Assumption B: the sets {(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A,z≤f(t,x,m,a)} are convex.
Assumption C: ∣b(t,x,m,a)−b(t,x,m′,a)∣≤c∥m−m′∥TV, with ∥m−m′∥TV=sup∣φ∣≤1∫φd(m−m′).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.11
Under Assumptions A, B and C, if m is a strong MFE, there are two families of objects:
numbers ϵn≥0 with ϵn→0;
for each n, Markovian ϵn-Nash equilibria αn;
such that
μn[αn]lawmin C([0,T];P(Rd)).
The goal asserts no rate, so any quantitative improvement still implies it.
Milestones
Proposition 3.7 (strong part): under A and B, strong MFE and strong RMFE are the same flows.
Theorem 2.14 (Markovian projection): a drift process can be replaced by a Markovian drift b^(t,x)=E[bt∣Xt=x] with the same one-dimensional marginals.
(7.2): for the symmetric profile Λn,i(t,x)=Λ∗(t,xi), μn→m in law and ∫φdμtn→∫φdmt in probability for bounded measurableφ.
νn→m (§7.1, p. 45): after one player deviates, the empirical flow still converges to m in probability.
Theorem 3.10: the relaxed converse, under A and C only.
Proposition 3.4(a): under A and B, a relaxed Markovian ϵ-Nash equilibrium can be replaced by a strict one with the same state law.
Significance
The result. Theorem 2.11 says that the strong MFE is a faithful idealization: every classical mean field equilibrium is approximately realized by Markovian feedback equilibria of large finite games. No continuity of the equilibrium feedback and no master equation are required. Together with the paper's main limit theorem (mission 1 of this series), it locates strong MFE inside the set of limits of closed-loop equilibria. The paper's Section 2.4 explains why the same converse is open for weak MFE.
Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper but has no machine-checked proof. A complete development would produce several reusable pieces:
pathwise formulations of SDEs with bounded measurable drift;
the Markovian projection theorem;
total-variation propagation of chaos;
relaxed-control purification by measurable selection.
None of these is in Mathlib.
Difficulty
The obvious argument has every player use α∗(t,Xti), invokes the McKean–Vlasov limit, and passes optimality to the limit. It fails at two places:
Discontinuous feedback.α∗ is only measurable, so weak convergence of μn does not give convergence of payoffs. Convergence in probability of ∫φdμtn for discontinuous φ is needed, and that is exactly what the total-variation Lipschitz Assumption C provides.
Arbitrary deviations. A deviating player's control βn is arbitrary and depends on all n states. Its limit is a relaxed, non-Markovian control. Comparing it with the mean field optimum requires a projection back onto Markovian feedbacks, without losing the marginal laws.
Formalization scope
Representation.
States live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d).
P(⋅) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure with the weak topology and the Borelσ-field.
Paths and flows are continuous maps on Set.Icc 0 T with the compact-open (uniform) topology.
Unit volatility makes every SDE a pathwise integral equationXt=X0+∫0t(drift)ds+Wt a.s., with no stochastic integral.
Solutions are quantified, not chosen. Payoffs are functions of a solution, and every equilibrium inequality, consistency condition and convergence statement is required for every solution. This equals the paper's definitions because solutions exist and are unique in law (Girsanov; Veretennikov; Krylov–Röckner).
The game with n+1 players is indexed by n.
Committed choices.
The paper's consistency condition "mt=L(Xt)" is read as L(Xt∗).
"Strong RFME" in Proposition 3.7 is read as strong RMFE.
Theorem 2.14's "unique strong solution" is a strong solution adapted to the completed filtration of (X0,W); its existence is part of the conclusion.
The νn milestone is stated for arbitrary relaxed Markovian deviations, which include the paper's near-optimal ones.
Coefficients and controls are defined at all real times; only [0,T] matters.
Ruled out. Because equilibria quantify over solutions, a profile whose state system has no solution would be an equilibrium vacuously. For this reason every existence conclusion (the goal, Theorem 3.10, Proposition 3.4(a)) also asserts that the chosen profiles have solutions, and strong (R)MFE requires the equilibrium SDE to have one.
Infrastructure. A complete proof needs Girsanov's theorem, strong existence for SDEs with bounded measurable drift, measurable selection, tightness on path space, and total-variation propagation of chaos. Each is reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome. Proposition 3.4(b), the weak half of Proposition 3.7, and Theorem 2.7 are outside this mission.
Selected references
D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
D. Lacker, On a strong form of propagation of chaos for McKean–Vlasov equations, Electron. Commun. Probab. 23, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04476
I. Gyöngy, Mimicking the one-dimensional marginal distributions of processes having an Itô differential, Probab. Theory Related Fields 71, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699039
G. Brunick, S. Shreve, Mimicking an Itô process by a solution of a stochastic differential equation, Ann. Appl. Probab. 23(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.0111
R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1210.5780
P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Annals of Math. Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 1: Empirical Measure Flows of Closed-Loop ε_n-Nash Equilibria Are Tight and Every Limit in Law Is a Weak MFEResearch Paper
Motivation
Mean field games (MFG) were introduced by Lasry and Lions (2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) as limits of stochastic differential games with many symmetric players. The model is only meaningful if equilibria of the n-player games actually converge to equilibria of the limit game. That convergence depends on what information the players use. For open-loop equilibria, where controls are functions of the noise, it was established in general by Lacker (2016) and Fischer (2017). For closed-loop equilibria, where a player's control is a feedback on the observed states of all players, the deviation of one player changes the state processes of all others, and the only general results before this paper (Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions, 2019) required a unique MFE and a smooth solution of the master equation.
Timeline:
2006–2007: Lasry–Lions and Huang–Malhamé–Caines introduce MFG and construct approximate n-player equilibria from an MFE.
2016–2017: Lacker and Fischer characterize limits of open-loop n-player equilibria as (weak) MFE, under continuity and compactness assumptions.
2015/2019: Cardaliaguet–Delarue–Lasry–Lions prove convergence of closed-loop Markovian equilibria with a rate, assuming the master equation has a smooth solution (in particular, monotone data).
2018: Lacker (arXiv:1808.02745, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2020) proves the closed-loop limit theorem without uniqueness or master equation, under bounded continuous data and a convexity condition. This mission formalizes that result.
Setting
Fix a dimension d, a horizon T>0, a compact convex control set A in a normed space, an initial law λ on Rd, and bounded continuous functions b(t,x,m,a)∈Rd, f(t,x,m,a)∈R, g(x,m)∈R, where m ranges over the probability measures P(Rd) with the weak topology (Assumption A). Assumption B asks that {(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A,z≤f(t,x,m,a)} be convex for each (t,x,m).
In the n-player game, player i picks an admissible closed-loop control αi(t,x): a measurable, non-anticipating function of time and of the paths of all n states. The states solve
with independent Brownian motions and i.i.d. initial states of law λ, and player i receives Jin(α)=E[∫0Tf(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,X))dt+g(XTi,μTn)]. A closed-loop ε-Nash equilibrium is a profile from which no player gains more than ε by a unilateral deviation. The random empirical measure flowμn=(μtn)t∈[0,T] is an element of C([0,T];P(Rd)).
A function of (t,x,m), with m a measure flow, is semi-Markov if it depends on m only through (ms)s≤t. A weak MFE is a filtered probability space carrying a random flow μ, a Brownian motion W and a state X∗ with X0∗∼λ, with X0∗,μ,W independent, a semi-Markov control α∗(t,Xt∗,μ) driving X∗, optimality of α∗ against every semi-Markov alternative (the alternative state being driven by the same W and μ), and the consistency condition μt=P(Xt∗∈⋅∣Ftμ). When μ is deterministic this is the usual (strong) MFE.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.7
Under Assumptions A and B, if εn≥0, εn→0, and αn is a closed-loop εn-Nash equilibrium of the n-player game, then
{L(μn[αn])}nis tight inP(C([0,T];P(Rd))),
and every subsequential limit in law is the law of the flow of a weak MFE. No constant and no rate is asserted.
Milestones
Without convexity (Theorem 3.9) the same holds with weak relaxed MFE, and Proposition 3.7 identifies weak relaxed MFE flows with weak MFE flows under Assumption B. The proof path of Section 5 is: tightness of the path-space empirical measures (Lemma 5.1), a projection lemma (Lemma 5.2), the realization of a randomized Fokker–Planck equation by a semi-Markov relaxed control (Lemma 5.3), identification of the limiting dynamics with the limiting average value (Theorem 5.4), approximation of relaxed by continuous controls (Lemma 5.5), and the limit of unilateral deviations (Proposition 5.6). Two supporting results come from Section 2.1 (well-posedness of the n-player system) and Appendix A (Corollary A.7).
Significance
The theorem shows that the mean field game is the correct limit of closed-loop n-player games without any uniqueness assumption, which is the regime where the master-equation method is unavailable. The price is the limit object: a weak MFE, whose measure flow may be random and whose control may depend on the past of the flow. The paper also shows (Proposition 7.2) that this randomness genuinely occurs, so the result cannot be strengthened to strong MFE in general. Combined with the converse (Theorem 2.11, mission 2 of this series), it characterizes which MFE arise as closed-loop limits.
The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it is machine-checked. A formalization produces a checked definition of closed-loop n-player games and of weak semi-Markov MFE, which are reusable for any MFG convergence result, and it would make explicit the measurability bookkeeping (semi-Markov controls, completed filtrations, conditional laws) that the paper outsources to its appendices.
Difficulty
The obvious argument fails at the deviation step. In the open-loop setting a deviating player leaves the other players' states unchanged; here the other players' feedback controls react to the deviation, so the state of every player changes. The paper's way around this is to identify the limit with semi-Markov controls and show that the value of a deviation can be approximated by n-player deviations of a specific form; making this work requires relaxed controls, a measurable projection onto the filtration of the (random) flow, and well-posedness of SDEs with bounded measurable drift and random coefficients. A newcomer's first idea, passing the Nash inequality to the limit with Markovian limit controls, does not work, because the limit flow is random and the limit control must see its past.
Formalization scope
States, laws, paths.Rd is the platform's EthierKurtz.SDEState d; Brownian motion is the platform's EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian. P(E) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure with the weak topology and the Borelσ-field of that topology. Paths and flows are continuous maps on [0,T] with the uniform topology.
Pathwise equations. The volatility is the identity (footnote 4), so every SDE is stated as Xt=X0+∫0tdriftds+Wt for all t, almost surely; no Itô integral is needed.
Solutions are quantified, not chosen.Jin is computed on a given weak solution, and the Nash inequality is required for every solution of the original and of the deviated profile; this is the paper's definition because solutions exist and are unique in law (a milestone).
The alternative state in the weak MFE ranges over the solutions adapted to the completed filtration generated by (X0∗,W,μ) (Remark 2.6), not over all adapted solutions.
Indexing. Term n of every sequence is the game with n+1 players; "every limit in distribution" quantifies over all subsequences.
Explicit hypotheses and corrected misprints. Lemma 5.3 needs μ0=λ a.s.; the paper omits it, and the statement adds it. Lemma 5.3(a) uses Λ∗(s,⋅,μ) inside ∫0t⋯ds, where the paper prints t. Lemma 5.5 states convergence of (μ,X[βn]), where the paper prints X[Λn]. In Definition 3.6(5) the alternative starts from X0∗, where the paper prints X0∼λ. Theorem 5.4's value identity (5.8) is stated along a further subsequence: as printed, along the whole subsequence, it fails for an arbitrary sequence of controls, and the paper's proof passes to a further subsequence. Measurability of every process is explicit, so laws and conditional expectations are never degenerate. Proposition 3.7 is posed for its weak part only.
Not a trivialization. The solution class NSol is inhabited and the weak MFE predicate is satisfiable (checked for d=0), so neither the hypotheses nor the conclusion of the goal holds vacuously; the conclusion asserts the existence of a weak MFE with the limiting flow law, not a property of an arbitrary one.
Welcome contributions. Weak existence and uniqueness for SDEs with bounded measurable drift (Girsanov, Veretennikov), Prokhorov-type tightness on path space, relaxed-control compactness, and measurable selection are all missing from Mathlib and reusable well beyond this mission.
Selected references
D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Communications in Information and Systems 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
D. Lacker, A general characterization of the mean field limit for stochastic differential games, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.2708
M. Fischer, On the connection between symmetric N-player games and mean field games, Ann. Appl. Probab. 27(2), 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.1345
P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Annals of Mathematics Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets 1: Two Additive Agents with Almost Equal but Unequal Budgets Have a Competitive Equilibrium Giving Each Agent Her Truncated ShareResearch Paper
Motivation
Many allocation problems divide indivisible goods among agents who are entitled to different shares but cannot pay with real money: course seats among students, shifts among workers, inherited items among heirs. A standard mechanism gives each agent a budget of artificial currency and lets a market run. When budgets are equal this is the competitive equilibrium from equal incomes (CEEI) of Varian (1974), the basis of the course-allocation mechanism of Budish (2011). With indivisible items, however, an equilibrium can fail to exist: one item and two agents with equal budgets already admit none, because whoever does not get the item could afford it at any price the owner can pay.
Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (arXiv 2017; Math. Oper. Res. 2021, doi:10.1287/moor.2020.1062) ask whether this failure is robust or a knife edge, and answer for two agents with additive preferences: an arbitrarily small, strict inequality between the budgets restores existence. Budish's approximate CEEI perturbs budgets randomly for the same reason; this mission formalizes the exact two-agent result.
Setting
A discrete Fisher market has a set M of m indivisible items and two agents. Agent i has a valuationvi assigning a real value to every bundle S⊆M, and a budgetbi>0. Valuations are additive (vi(S)=∑j∈Svi({j})), normalized (vi(M)=1), non-negative, monotone (vi(S)<vi(T) when S⊊T) and strict (different bundles have different values). Budgets are normalized, b1+b2=1; money has no value to the agents.
An allocationS=(S1,S2) is a partition of all items between the agents. Item prices pj≥0 give bundle prices p(S)=∑j∈Spj. Agent idemandsS if p(S)≤bi and p(T)>bi for every bundle T with vi(T)>vi(S). A competitive equilibrium (CE) is a pair (S,p) in which each agent demands her own bundle. An allocation is Pareto optimal (PO) if every other allocation is strictly worse for some agent.
Agent i's budget-proportional share is bi (her budget times vi(M)=1). Her truncated share is the best value she gets in a PO allocation that gives her at most that share:
bi−=max{vi(Si):SPO,vi(Si)≤bi}.
The Lean development uses the same names: bundle σ i for Si, price, IsCE, IsPO, IsStandardValuation, GetsTruncatedShare.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 17)
For every two-agent additive market there is ϵ>0 such that every budget pair with
b2<b1≤b2+ϵ
admits a CE (S,p) in which vj(Sj)≥bj− for both agents. The goal fixes no value of ϵ; it asserts only that one exists for each market.
Milestones
Proposition 4.1 (p. 10): for a PO allocation with non-empty bundles and budget-exhausting prices, CE is equivalent to a pairwise swap condition, Condition (1).
Lemma 4.3 (p. 11): a budget-exhausting combination pricingpj=αv1({j})+βv2({j}) (α,β≥0, max{α,β}>0) at a PO allocation is a CE.
Proposition 5.1 (p. 12): budget-proportional and anti-proportional PO allocations are supported in a CE.
Lemma 5.5 (p. 14): without budget-proportional or PO anti-proportional allocations, agent i's augmented-share minimizer is agent k's truncated-share maximizer.
Lemma 6.3 (p. 15): if the budgets avoid the finite exceptional set Ri and the rectangle of allocations Ti is empty, a CE with truncated shares exists.
Case 1 of the proof (p. 18): a CE at budgets (21,21) remains a CE, after rescaling prices, when agent 1's budget is raised slightly.
Ri avoidance (p. 19): almost equal but unequal budgets lie outside Ri.
Two companion statements are drafted without being milestones: Theorem 4.4 (second welfare theorem) and Theorem 5.2 (a budget-proportional allocation implies a CE).
Significance
The result. Theorem 7.1 shows that the non-existence of CEEI with indivisible goods is a measure-zero phenomenon for two additive agents: equal budgets are the only bad point near equality, and the equilibrium obtained is also fair in the truncated-share sense. It justifies tie-breaking by tiny budget differences in practice. It is the two-agent base case of the paper's main open question (§9.1, p. 20), whether generic almost-equal budgets guarantee a CE for more than two agents; the paper also leaves open two agents with arbitrary generic budgets and non-identical preferences (p. 21). For arbitrary, not almost-equal, budgets, Segal-Halevi (AAMAS 2018) shows that genericity does not guarantee existence for four additive agents.
Formalizing it. No machine-checked proof of any result of this paper is known. The paper's own argument for one case of the goal is incomplete: in Case 2(b) of the proof of Theorem 7.1 (p. 19) it asserts that the two candidate allocations are mirror images of each other and that the rectangles T1,T2 are empty. Both claims fail on an explicit three-item market. Theorem 7.1 itself held in every one of 6000 markets checked numerically during planning, including that one, where a CE with truncated shares exists at prices proportional to one agent's valuation. A formal proof therefore has to supply an argument the paper does not contain; the two false steps are not posed as milestones.
Difficulty
The milestones 1–5 are finite combinatorics on the Pareto frontier with sign bookkeeping. The difficulty sits in Case 2(b) of the goal: every allocation gives one agent more than 21 and the other less. The natural route, invoking Lemma 6.3, needs some Ti to be empty, and in that case both can be non-empty. Lemma 6.3 does not cover it, and the paper's symmetry argument cannot be repaired by choosing ϵ smaller, since in the counterexample the two candidate allocations stay the same for every small ϵ. A complete proof must show directly that one of the two "as fair as possible" allocations is supported by suitable prices.
Formalization scope
Items are Fin m and agents Fin 2; the paper's agents 1, 2 are indices 0, 1, so "b1>b2" reads b 1 < b 0. An allocation is a map σ : Fin m → Fin 2, which builds in that every item is allocated exactly once. All quantities are real numbers. Demand quantifies over every bundle, with strict inequality p(T)>bi. Prices are non-negative by definition of a CE. The truncated share is a maximum over PO allocations only.
Two conventions are disclosed restrictions or additions:
Strictness without identical items. The paper allows identical items as the single exception to strict preferences (p. 6). Here each valuation is injective on bundles, so markets with identical items are excluded.
Rescaled prices in Case 1. The page says the perturbed CE uses unchanged prices; at normalized budgets the prices must be divided by 1+ϵ, and the milestone says so.
In the goal ϵ is chosen after the valuations and before the budgets. A formalization in which ϵ depends on the budgets, demand ranges over a restricted family of bundles, allocations need not allocate every item, prices may be negative, or the truncated share is a maximum over all allocations, would be a different and in several cases trivial statement; all of these are ruled out.
The definitions file GenericBudgets.AlmostEqual.Setting holds the market, CE, PO, the fairness notions, combination pricing, Condition (1), Ti and Ri, and is reusable for any two-agent indivisible-goods market with budgets. Proofs of the milestones, a repaired argument for Case 2(b), and general n-agent versions of the CE and PO infrastructure are welcome.
E. Budish, The combinatorial assignment problem: approximate competitive equilibrium from equal incomes, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
E. Segal-Halevi, Competitive equilibrium for almost all incomes, Proceedings of AAMAS 2018, pp. 1267–1275. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04212
On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 3: Under Convexity Every Markovian ε-Nash Equilibrium Is a Closed-Loop ε-Nash EquilibriumResearch Paper
Two notions of equilibrium in stochastic differential games
In an n-player stochastic differential game each player controls the drift of its own diffusion and is rewarded through a running and a terminal payoff that depend on its own state and on the empirical distribution of all states. A player's strategy can be closed-loop (path-dependent), reacting to the whole observed history of all states, or Markovian (in the engineering literature, "feedback perfect state"), reacting only to the current states and the time. The two lead to two equilibrium notions. A Markovian equilibrium is the object produced by the classical PDE approach (a Nash system of n parabolic equations), and it is the natural object for mean field game approximations. A closed-loop equilibrium is the economically more convincing notion, because it rules out profitable deviations to any strategy a player could actually implement.
D. Lacker's paper On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020, doi:10.1214/19-AAP1541) proves limit theorems for closed-loop equilibria as n→∞. Its Proposition 2.2, the subject of this mission, shows that under a convexity condition going back to Filippov and Roxin, the Markovian equilibria form a subset of the closed-loop ones. The limit theorems for closed-loop equilibria then apply to Markovian ones as well.
Setting
Fix a horizon T>0, a dimension d, a number of players n≥1, a control set A in a real normed space, an initial law λ on Rd, and functions
Assumption A: A is compact and convex, and b,f,g are bounded and jointly continuous. Assumption B: for each (t,x,m) the set K(t,x,m)={(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A,z≤f(t,x,m,a)} is convex; this holds, for instance, if b is affine and f concave in a.
Write Cd=C([0,T];Rd). An admissible control is a Borel, non-anticipative map α:[0,T]×(Cd)n→A; the set of these is An. A Markovian control is a Borel map α~:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A, used as α(t,x)=α~(t,xt); the set is AMn. A profile α=(α1,…,αn) drives the states
For ϵ≥0, a closed-loop ϵ-Nash equilibrium is a profile in Ann with Jin(α)≥supβ∈AnJin(α−i,β)−ϵ for all i; a Markovian ϵ-Nash equilibrium is a profile in AMnn with the same inequality, the supremum taken over β∈AMn only.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 2.2
Under Assumptions A and B, for every ϵ≥0,
αMarkovian ϵ-Nash⟹αclosed-loop ϵ-Nash.
Milestones
Theorem 2.14 (Markovian projection; Gyöngy, Brunick–Shreve). If Xt=X0+∫0tbsds+Wt with b bounded and progressively measurable, there is a bounded Borel b with b(t,Xt)=E[bt∣Xt], and the strong solution of dYt=b(t,Yt)dt+dWt, Y0=X0, has Yt=dXt for each t.
(4.6)–(4.7). When player i deviates to a closed-loop β against Markovian opponents, producing states Y, there is a Borel β:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A with b(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Yt))=E[b(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Y))∣Yt] and f(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Yt))≥E[f(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Y))∣Yt].
Payoff comparison. With such a β, Jin(β,α−i)≤Jin(β,α−i).
Significance
The proposition makes the two equilibrium notions comparable: since a priori a Markovian equilibrium is tested only against Markovian deviations, there is no reason for it to survive path-dependent deviations, and without convexity it need not. Under Assumption B, every result about closed-loop equilibria (in the paper: tightness of the empirical measure flows and identification of their limits as weak mean field equilibria, Theorem 2.7) covers Markovian equilibria too, and in particular those built from classical solutions of the Nash system.
The result is proved in the paper; nothing in this mission is open mathematics. To our knowledge none of it is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked formulation of the n-player game with weak solutions, both equilibrium notions, and the comparison; the Markovian projection theorem is a general result of stochastic analysis, used well beyond game theory (local volatility calibration, mimicking theorems), with no formal proof in any proof assistant that we know of.
Difficulty
The obvious attempt is to replace a closed-loop deviation β by its "Markovian average", the conditional expectation of the control given the current state. This fails twice. First, b and f are nonlinear in the control, so averaging the control changes both drift and reward; the convexity of K is what allows a single Markovian control to reproduce the conditional drift exactly while not losing reward, and producing it requires a measurable selection that is jointly measurable in time and state. Second, replacing the drift changes the law of the whole state process, so it is not clear that the payoff can be compared at all. Only the one-dimensional time marginals are preserved, and proving that requires the Markovian projection theorem, whose proof rests on uniqueness for a Fokker–Planck equation with merely bounded measurable drift. Neither ingredient is in Mathlib, which has no stochastic differential equations, Girsanov theorem, or Itô formula.
Formalization scope
State equations are pathwise. The volatility is the identity (footnote 4), so every SDE is written Xt=X0+∫0t(drift)sds+Wt for all t∈[0,T], a.s., with a Lebesgue integral; no Itô integral occurs.
Weak solutions are quantified, not chosen. A solution of the n-player system (NSol) bundles its own probability space (in Type), filtration, n independent Brownian motions jointly forming an nd-dimensional F-Brownian motion, adapted continuous states, i.i.d. initial states of law λ independent of the noise, and the empirical flow. Jin is evaluated on a given solution, and each ϵ-Nash condition is required for every solution of the equilibrium profile and every solution of the deviated profile. This equals the paper's definition because solutions exist and are unique in law (Girsanov, p. 6); proving the goal therefore requires constructing solutions where needed.
Brownian motion is the platform's EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian on [0,∞), made an F-Brownian motion by adaptedness and independent increments; Rd is EthierKurtz.SDEState d.
Spaces.P(Rd) carries the weak topology and its Borel σ-field; paths and flows are continuous maps on [0,T] with the compact-open (= uniform) topology and Borel σ-field.
Explicit hypotheses: n≥1 (NeZero n), T>0, ϵ≥0, measurability of every process and control, and the completed filtration of (X0,W) for the strong solution in Theorem 2.14 (platform EthierKurtz.completedBrownianPast). Coefficients and controls take a real time argument, constrained only on [0,T].
Player index. The paper's proof is written for player 1; milestones 2 and 3 are stated for an arbitrary player i.
Direction. The hypothesis tests only Markovian deviations, the conclusion all admissible closed-loop deviations. A formalization with the classes swapped, or one in which the solution sets are empty, would be trivially true; a sorry-free check in the workspace shows that solutions, Assumptions A–B and the hypothesis are all satisfiable.
Needed infrastructure: weak solutions of SDEs with bounded drift (Girsanov), strong existence for bounded measurable drift (Veretennikov), Fokker–Planck uniqueness, measurable selection, and disintegration of measures depending measurably on a parameter. The Markovian projection theorem and the Girsanov existence of n-player solutions are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions toward any of these are welcome.
Selected references
D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
I. Gyöngy, Mimicking the one-dimensional marginal distributions of processes having an Itô differential, Probab. Theory Related Fields 71, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699039
G. Brunick, S. Shreve, Mimicking an Itô process by a solution of a stochastic differential equation, Ann. Appl. Probab. 23(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-AAP881
Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains II: A Stable Joint-Auditing Coalition Audits the Common Supplier and Shares Costs FairlyResearch Paper
Motivation
Brands that sell consumer goods are held responsible by the public for the labour and safety practices of their suppliers. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh, about 200 clothing brands and retailers signed the Accord on Fire and Building Safety and inspect roughly 1,600 factories jointly; pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GSK audit their suppliers jointly through the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Initiative (both examples from the paper, pp. 4 and 14). Two features of such supply bases matter for auditing. Competing brands often share a common supplier, so a scandal at that supplier hurts both of them. And brands compete downstream, so a scandal that hurts only a rival can help a brand.
Chen, Qi and Dawande (MSOM 2020; accepted manuscript SSRN 2889889) model two competing buyers with one common and two independent suppliers. Their Proposition 2 shows that, when each buyer audits on his own, competition drives the buyers away from the common supplier: in every equilibrium it is left unaudited. This mission formalizes their Proposition 3. It shows that a coalition that audits jointly, and splits the cost by a Shapley-value rule, does audit the common supplier and is stable. A companion mission (Supplier Centrality … I) covers Proposition 2.
Setting
Two buyers B1,B2 source from three suppliers: Bi from its independent supplierSi, and both from the common supplierSc. Each supplier is compliant with probability e∈(0,1). A non-compliant supplier that passes an audit of effort x∈[0,1] (probability 1−x) is exposed in public with probability r∈(0,1]. An independent supplier audited with effort x therefore causes damage with probability λI(x)=r(1−e)(1−x). The three suppliers offend independently.
If buyer Bi has ni∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers, its demand intercept falls from α to α−dM (by dM>0 once, however many offend). Each exposed supplier also raises its unit input cost from w to w^≥w. The buyers then play a Cournot game with differentiated products (substitution β∈(0,1]). Buyer B1's equilibrium profit is π1b(n1,n2)=(q1∗)2, where
The aggregate ex post profit is πb(idM,jdM)=π1b(i,j)+π2b(i,j). Auditing a supplier with effort x costs K1{x>0}+2ax2.
Unilateral auditing. Each buyer audits at most one of his two suppliers. Πib is buyer Bi's expected profit net of his own audit costs. An equilibrium is a pair of mutual best responses in which, by the paper's tie-breaking rule, a buyer who audits strictly prefers it to not auditing. The effort e^I of eq. (2) is a buyer's optimal effort on his own supplier when the rival does not audit.
Joint auditing. The coalition chooses efforts x=(ec1,ecc,ec2)∈[0,1]3 on S1,Sc,S2, auditing at most two suppliers, and pays each audited supplier's cost once. The buyers still compete downstream. With Rib(x) the buyers' expected profits excluding audit costs, the coalition's profit is
There are thresholds KcL≤KcH such that, for every K≥0, an optimal joint plan
⎩⎨⎧audits S1 and Sc,ΔΠ>0,audits only Sc,ΔΠ=0,audits nothing,K<KcL,KcL≤K<KcH,K≥KcH.
The coalition is also stable. At an optimal plan its aggregate profit is at least the buyers' aggregate profit in any unilateral equilibrium. After paying Γi, each buyer earns at least his profit in a symmetric unilateral equilibrium.
Milestones
The coalition's profit as a sum of unilateral profits (proof of Lemma OA9). Lemma OA9: Sc beats one independent supplier, and beats no audit for K<K^. Lemma OA10: Sc with S1 beats S1 with S2. Lemma OA11: S1 with Sc beats Sc alone for K<K~. The fair shares (3). The case analysis with KcL=min{2K^+K~,K~} and KcH=max{2K^+K~,K^}. Stability.
Significance
The result separates two effects of downstream competition on responsible sourcing. Under unilateral auditing, a buyer gains nothing private from auditing the shared supplier: the reduction in risk accrues equally to his rival. The joint coalition removes this free-riding. The common supplier is audited whenever anything is, and the Shapley-type split (3) charges the buyer who also has his own supplier audited for the competitive advantage this gives him (Γ1>Γ2 exactly when ΔΠ>0). The paper's welfare comparison (Proposition 4) builds on this proposition and on Proposition 2.
The proof in the e-companion argues through four comparisons of candidate plans and short cost-sharing algebra. None of it is machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the model (in particular which costs the coalition pays and what "at most two suppliers" excludes) and checks each comparison. In one place it also corrects the printed claim: the per-firm stability argument is given only for the symmetric unilateral equilibrium, and it does not extend to the asymmetric one (see Formalization scope).
Difficulty
All objects are explicit polynomials in the efforts. The difficulty is in the comparisons. Lemmas OA9 and OA10 compare different audit plans through the scenario ordering of aggregate ex post profits, an assumption on the stage-2 closed form that is not implied by the standing conditions. The obvious attempt, comparing first-order conditions, fails because the coalition's profit is discontinuous at zero effort (the fixed cost) and the feasible set is not convex: "at most two of three" is a union of faces of the cube. The thresholds K^, K~ are differences of maxima, so the case analysis has to handle ties and the boundary K=KcH with weak inequalities. Stability needs the unilateral equilibria of Proposition 2, so the full goal reaches into the companion mission's game.
Formalization scope
Model.Params holds α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a with β∈[0,1], w≤w^, dM>0, e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1], a>0 and the three positivity conditions of p. 8. Every statement adds β>0 (Sec. 4.3 continues the competing case) and the p. 13 scenario as five inequalities between piAgg values. Their arguments count exposed suppliers: πb(2dM,dM) is a label, not a damage of 2dM.
Expected profits are 8-outcome expectations of the closed-form stage-2 profit. The coalition's profit charges each audited supplier once, and the common supplier's damage probability under a joint audit is r(1−e)(1−ecc).
ThresholdsK^,K~ are the maxima at K=0 written as sSup over [0,1] and [0,1]2. At K=0 the profit is a polynomial, so these suprema are attained.
"Yields the highest aggregate profit" is read as "some maximizer over the feasible plans has this pattern"; uniqueness is not claimed. ΔΠ is evaluated at that maximizer (its mirror image, which audits S2, has ΔΠ<0).
Cost shares use the total cost of the plan. For plans with ec2=0 they are the printed formulas (3).
Unilateral benchmark. The equilibrium includes the tie-breaking rule of p. 10, and the interior-effort assumption of p. 10 is encoded as e^I<1, with e^I given by eq. (2).
Stability, corrected. Condition (b) of Sec. 4.3 (each firm earns more) is stated against symmetric unilateral equilibria only, the case the paper's proof treats. Against the asymmetric equilibrium, where one buyer audits with e^I and the other audits nothing, it fails. Take α=10, β=1, w=1, w^=3, dM=21, e=101, r=1, a=50, K=0.2: the coalition optimally audits nothing, yet the auditing buyer earns more unilaterally than half of the coalition's profit. Condition (a) is stated against every equilibrium. "Higher" is stated as ≥.
The goal's thresholds are existential and come before ∀K. Choosing KcL=KcH does not trivialize it, because the three cases must cover every K≥0. The milestone on part (2) fixes the thresholds explicitly.
The source is the authors' SSRN accepted manuscript. Main-text page numbers equal PDF pages, and e-companion page eck is PDF page 28+k.
Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemmas OA9–OA11, which are self-contained polynomial inequalities; existence of maximizers on the non-convex feasible set (upper semicontinuity); and the link to the unilateral equilibria needed for stability.
Selected references
F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020; accepted manuscript, SSRN 2889889. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier evasion of a buyer's audit: Implications for motivating supplier social and environmental responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2):184–197, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4):546–554, 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 3: The Mean-Field Equilibrium Strategies Form an O(1/√N)-Nash Equilibrium of the N-Player Liquidation GameResearch Paper
Motivation
A trader who must sell a large position within a fixed horizon faces a trade-off: selling fast moves the price against her (temporary price impact), selling slowly exposes her to price risk. Since Almgren and Chriss, this optimal liquidation problem has been studied as a stochastic control problem with a terminal state constraint: the remaining position must be zero at the horizon T. When many traders liquidate at the same time, each trader's sales also depress the price that the others receive (permanent price impact), and the problem becomes a game.
Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911v3) study this game in the mean-field limit. Their §2 constructs a mean-field equilibrium through a singular conditional mean-field FBSDE. Their §3, the subject of this mission, justifies the limit: the strategies computed from the mean field game are an approximate Nash equilibrium of the finite game with N traders, with an error of order 1/N. Without such a result, the mean-field equilibrium describes a model nobody plays; with it, the equilibrium is a usable approximation for large but finite markets.
The approximation of N-player games by mean field games goes back to Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) and Lasry and Lions (2007); Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51, 2013) proved an εN-Nash property for a McKean–Vlasov class with state interaction and a rate N−1/(d+4). The present game differs in three respects: players interact through their controls (the average trading rate), there is a common noise observed by all, and each player's state must reach zero at time T.
Setting
A single probability space carries a one-dimensional Brownian motion W0 (the common noise, which drives the benchmark price and is observed by every player), for each player i a k-dimensional Brownian motion Wi (the private noise), and i.i.d. initial portfolios Xi with law ν; all of these are mutually independent. Player i observes Fi, Fti=σ(Xi,Ws0,Wsi,s≤t), and chooses a trading rate ξi; her position is Xti=Xi−∫0tξsids and must satisfy XTi=0. Given the profile ξ=(ξ1,…,ξN), her conditional cost is
where κi (permanent impact), ηi (temporary impact) and λi (risk aversion) are nonnegative bounded processes. Under Assumption 3.1 they are the same deterministic measurable functionals κ,η,λ of (t,Xi,W⋅∧ti,W⋅∧t0) for every player, so the players are statistically identical.
In the mean field game, the average N1∑jξj is replaced by a process μ adapted to the common-noise filtration F0, and an equilibrium is a μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗∣Ft0] for the representative player's best response ξ∗. The paper characterizes it through the FBSDE (2.3),
with W=(W0,W); the optimal rate is ξ∗=Y/(2η). Player i's mean-field strategy ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi) comes from the same FBSDE with her own data.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3.3
For a positive function M with ψ≤M, where ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt∣Xi], and admissible sets Ai={ξ∈AFi(Xi):E[∫0T∣ξt∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}, there is a function g, independent of i and N, with
JN,i(ξ∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+Ng(Xi)for all N≥1,1≤i≤N,ξi∈Ai.
The goal asserts only the shape of the bound, not its constant.
Milestones
Lemma 3.2: one measurable map Φ gives (Xi,Yi,∫0⋅Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0) for every player, and ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi) (3.1).
(3.2): a single μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗,i∣Ft0] for every i.
The bounds on I1 and I2 (p. 24): the two differences of conditional costs into which the proof splits JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ∗) are O(1/N).
Significance
The result turns the mean-field equilibrium of §2 into a statement about the finite market: when all N traders use their mean-field strategies, a trader who deviates can save at most g(Xi)/N in conditional expected cost. The error bound depends on the trader's own initial position only through M(Xi), and the rate 1/N is dimension-free, in contrast with the N−1/(d+4) rates of state-interaction games, because the interaction runs through the empirical mean of the controls rather than through an empirical measure.
The paper's proof of Theorem 3.3 is short but rests on several facts it states without proof: the Yamada–Watanabe-type Lemma 3.2 (whose proof is referred to other papers), the identification (3.2) of a common conditional mean, and the moment bound (3.3) attributed to Proposition 2.8. This mission makes each of these a separate machine-checkable statement. As far as we know, none of these results, nor any optimal-liquidation mean field game, has a machine-checked proof.
Difficulty
The estimate (3.5) is a law-of-large-numbers bound for the average of N processes that are not independent: all of them depend on the common noise W0. The obvious argument, expanding the square and using independence, fails as stated; the cross terms vanish only conditionally on W0, and only once one knows that every ξ∗,j is the same measurable functional of (Xj,W0,Wj). That is Lemma 3.2, a Yamada–Watanabe-type statement for a singular FBSDE with a conditional mean-field term, which needs strong uniqueness of the FBSDE in the class Hα×L2×L2([0,T−]) and is the main technical step. The terminal constraint XT=0 makes the backward component singular at T (Y blows up like X/(T−t)), so standard Lipschitz FBSDE theory does not apply. Finally, the deviation ξ is constrained only through a conditional second-moment bound M, and the comparison with the mean-field cost uses the optimality of ξ∗,i (Proposition 2.9) against μ∗.
Formalization scope
Everything is stated on one probability space carrying all players, with players indexed by N; the N-player game uses players i<N (the paper's 1,…,N, shifted by one). Time is R≥0 and the processes are real valued. Choices made explicit:
Assumption 2.3 for every player is a hypothesis of every theorem: the paper states it "throughout" (p. 8), and the proof of Theorem 3.3 uses Propositions 2.8 and 2.9, which need it. Its constants κmax,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥ are essential bounds over [0,T]×Ω; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
The equilibrium processes (Xi,Yi,Zi) are hypotheses: solutions of (2.3) for player i's data in the class of Theorem 2.4. ξ∗,i is defined as Yi/(2ηi), never through ϕ.
Conditioning on Xi=xi is conditioning on σ(Xi); every conclusion holds almost surely, i.e. for ν-a.e. xi. "ψ≤M" is the a.s. inequality of conditional second moments, and M is assumed measurable.
g is quantified before N and i. A statement in which g may depend on N is trivially true and is ruled out.
Filtrations are augmented by null sets. Each conditional expectation E[⋅∣Ft0] is evaluated through a progressive version of an integrable argument. BSDEs on [0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ], τ<T.
Lemma 3.2's path spaces carry the product σ-algebra; its identities hold for each t almost surely.
The paper's bound on I2 is stated for ∣I2∣, which is what its Cauchy–Schwarz step gives and what the proof needs.
The development reuses the Itô-calculus definitions of Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2, Itô integrals, BSDEs). Contributions useful beyond this mission: conditional independence given a common noise for functionals of independent inputs, a Yamada–Watanabe argument for FBSDEs, and conditional Cauchy–Schwarz bounds for time integrals. Proofs of any milestone, and of the facts from §2 they rely on, are welcome.
Selected references
G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains I: Under Downstream Competition No Buyer Audits the Common Supplier in Any EquilibriumResearch Paper
Motivation
Brands are routinely held responsible for the labour and environmental practices of their suppliers. A brand that is linked in public to a non-compliant supplier loses consumer willingness to pay, and firms answer this risk by auditing their suppliers. Supply networks are not trees, however: one supplier often serves several competing brands. Chen, Qi and Dawande (SSRN 2889889, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020) ask how the position of a supplier in such a network, and in particular its centrality (the number of buyers it serves), affects which suppliers get audited when buyers decide on their own, and when they audit jointly.
This mission formalizes the paper's answer for unilateral auditing by competing buyers (Sec. 4.2, Proposition 2). A companion mission treats joint auditing (Proposition 3).
Setting
Two buyers B1,B2 source from three suppliers: an independent supplierSi for each buyer Bi, and a common supplierSc that serves both. Each supplier complies with social-responsibility standards with probability e∈(0,1). In stage 1, buyer Bi chooses an auditing effort eii∈[0,1] on Si and eic∈[0,1] on Sc, and audits at most one of them: eiieic=0. Auditing a supplier with effort x>0 costs K+2ax2, with a fixed cost K≥0 and a>0; effort 0 means no audit and costs nothing.
A non-compliant supplier that passes the audits is discovered in public with probability r∈(0,1]. Hence Si causes damage to Bi with probability λI(eii)=r(1−e)(1−eii), and Sc causes damage to both buyers with probability λC(e1c,e2c)=r(1−e)(1−e1c)(1−e2c), independently. A buyer with at least one exposed supplier suffers the MWTP damagedM>0: his demand intercept drops from α to α−dM. Each exposed supplier is then paid w^≥w per unit instead of w, so a buyer with n∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers has unit cost (2−n)w+nw^.
In stage 2 the buyers compete in quantities with inverse demands pi=Ai−qi−βqi′, β∈(0,1] (Dixit 1979; Singh and Vives 1984). Its equilibrium profit for B1 is π1b(n1,n2)=q1∗(n1,n2)2, in closed form (Lemma 1). Buyer B1's ex ante expected profit Π1b(e11,e1c;e22,e2c) is the expectation of π1b over the eight damage outcomes, minus his audit costs; Π2b is symmetric. Three conditions on (α,β,w,w^,dM) (p. 8) make all stage-2 quantities positive.
An equilibrium is a profile (s1,s2), si=(eii,eic), in which each buyer's strategy is a best response to the other's, with the tie-breaking rule of p. 10: a buyer who is indifferent between auditing and not auditing does not audit. Two explicit efforts, eI∗ (eq. (1)) and e^I (eq. (2)), are rational functions of the parameters; e^I is a buyer's optimal effort on his independent supplier when the rival audits nobody, and eI∗ is the symmetric solution when both audit their independent suppliers.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 2
Assume β∈(0,1] and e^I<1. There exist KuL<KuM<KuH such that for every K≥0, writing A=((eI∗,0),(eI∗,0)), B1=((e^I,0),(0,0)), B2=((0,0),(e^I,0)), N=((0,0),(0,0)),
In every equilibrium the common supplier receives zero effort.
Milestones
Lemma 1 (stage-2 equilibrium), the OA.2 expected-profit display, the best-response function (OA-9) with eI∗ and e^I as its values, the dominance inequality (OA-11), Lemmas OA5 and OA6 (the two kinds of auditing equilibria and their threshold ranges), the monotonicity facts (OA-14)–(OA-15), Lemma OA7 (the order of the thresholds) and Lemma OA8 (no equilibrium audits Sc). The thresholds of the milestones are the explicit ones the proof defines in (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13).
Significance
The result separates network position from competition. Without downstream competition (β=0, Proposition 1) there is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium in which one buyer audits the common supplier. With competition, Proposition 2 shows that the common supplier, the most central and therefore the most consequential source of risk, is never audited: auditing it would also protect the rival, who free-rides. This inefficiency is what motivates the paper's analysis of joint auditing (Proposition 3) and of social welfare (Proposition 4).
The result is proved in the paper, partly by omission: the e-companion leaves the proof of Lemma OA8 and the case K≥KuH to the reader. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof would give a complete case analysis of a two-stage game with a discontinuous fixed cost, a constrained strategy set and a tie-breaking rule, and would check the paper's closed forms, several of which are printed with small slips.
Difficulty
The first-order conditions alone do not determine the equilibria. The fixed cost makes each buyer's payoff discontinuous at zero effort, so every candidate must be compared with no audit, and the best response is a choice among three regimes (audit Si, audit Sc, audit nobody). Uniqueness claims therefore require excluding every profile in the constrained strategy set, including those where a buyer audits the common supplier, for which the paper gives no proof. The threshold comparisons KuL<KuM<KuH rest on monotonicity in the rival's effort, and the expected profit is multilinear in the four efforts (plus the quadratic audit costs), with coefficients that are differences of squared Cournot quantities whose signs depend on the p. 8 conditions.
Formalization scope
All objects live in the namespace SupplierAudit.Competition. The source is the authors' accepted manuscript on SSRN (2889889); main-text printed pages equal PDF pages, and e-companion page ec k is PDF page 28+k.
Parameters. A structure Params carries α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a and the standing assumptions β∈[0,1], w≤w^, dM>0, e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1], a>0 and the three conditions of p. 8. The theorems add β>0 (competition, Sec. 4.2). K is a separate real argument and the goal quantifies over K≥0.
Stage 2. The general linear differentiated Cournot duopoly is its own definition (CournotDuopoly). The model's stage-2 profit is the closed form q1∗(n1,n2)2 for all (n1,n2); Lemma 1 states that it is the game's unique equilibrium.
Expected profit.Π1b is the eight-outcome expectation; Π2b is Π1b with the roles exchanged. The grouped display of OA.2 is a milestone.
Strategies and equilibrium. Strategies are pairs in [0,1]2 with product zero. Equilibria include the strict-improvement tie-breaking rule of p. 10; without it the goal is false at K=KuM and K=KuH.
Interior efforts. The paper assumes equilibrium efforts lie in (0,1) (p. 10; sufficient conditions in OA.1 are not given in closed form). This is encoded as the single hypothesis e^I<1 on the explicit formula (2), never as a hypothesis on an unknown equilibrium variable.
Thresholds. The goal states the thresholds existentially, as printed, with their order as part of the conclusion; the milestones use the explicit (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13). eI∗, e^I and e11∗(⋅) are the printed formulas, not argmaxes.
Printed slips, corrected. In (OA-11) the second prefactor should be β(w^−w); only the strict inequality is stated. The printed derivative of e11∗ in the proof of Lemma OA7 lacks a factor 1/a; only monotonicity is stated.
A formalization in which equilibrium is plain Nash, efforts range over all of R, a buyer may audit both suppliers, or "interior" is a hypothesis on the equilibrium efforts themselves would state a different (and in places false or vacuous) theorem; these are ruled out by the definitions above. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is reusable infrastructure for linear Cournot duopolies and for finite expectations over independent Bernoulli events.
Selected references
F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020 (accepted manuscript). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
A. Dixit, A Model of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003317
N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier Evasion of a Buyer's Audit: Implications for Motivating Supplier Social and Environmental Responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 3: Distributed Controls from a Mean Field Game Solution Form an ε_n-Nash Equilibrium of the n-Player Game, ε_n → 0Research Paper
Why approximate Nash equilibria of finite games
Mean field games (MFGs) were introduced by Lasry and Lions (Jpn. J. Math. 2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (Commun. Inf. Syst. 2006) as limits of stochastic differential games with many symmetric players whose interaction runs through the empirical distribution of their states. An MFG is a fixed point problem for one representative player facing a flow of measures, and it is much easier to analyse than an n-player game. The justification for studying it is a converse statement: a solution of the MFG should yield strategies that are nearly optimal for every player of the finite game when n is large. Results of this type were proved by Huang, Malhamé and Caines for linear-quadratic models and by Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2013) in the strong formulation with Lipschitz data.
Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152v2; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015) set up MFGs in a weak formulation: controls change the law of the state through a Girsanov density instead of entering the state equation. This allows measurable, path-dependent data and controls that need only be progressively measurable. Their Theorem 4.2 is the finite-player approximation in this generality. This mission formalizes it.
Setting
Let C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm, and fix a measurable weight ψ:C→[1,∞). Pψ(C) is the set of probability measures μ on C with ∫ψdμ<∞, carrying the topology τψ: the weakest topology making μ↦∫fdμ continuous for every measurable f with ∣f∣≤cψ. The control set A is a compact convex subset of a normed space, and P(A) carries the weak topology.
The data are a volatility σ(t,x), a drift b(t,x,μ,a), a running reward f(t,x,μ,q,a) and a terminal reward g(x,μ), where x∈C is a whole path, μ∈Pψ(C) and q∈P(A). On a probability space with an initial value ξ∼λ0 and an independent Wiener process W, let X solve dXt=σ(t,X)dWt, X0=ξ. A control α (an A-valued progressive process) and a measure μ define a new probability Pμ,α with density
dPdPμ,α=E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt)dWt)T,
under which X has drift b(t,X,μ,αt). The reward is Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0Tf(t,X,μ,qt,αt)dt+g(X,μ)]. A pair (μ^,q^) is a solution of the MFG (Definition 3.4) if some α^ maximizes Jμ^,q^ and reproduces the input: Pμ^,α^∘X−1=μ^ and Pμ^,α^∘α^t−1=q^t for a.e. t. Under the standing assumptions the optimal control is a function α^(t,X) of the path, the closed-loop control.
The n-player game. On a probability space with independent Wiener processes Wi and i.i.d. initial values ξi∼λ0, let Xi solve dXti=b(t,Xi,α^(t,Xi))dt+σ(t,Xi)dWti (the drift has no mean field term under (F.1)). The distributed controls are αti=α^(t,Xi): each player uses only their own state. A deviation β∈An is any process that is progressively measurable for the filtration Fn of all n states (full information). A profile β=(β1,…,βn) changes the probability to Pn(β), with density the Doléans exponential of ∑i∫(σ−1b(t,Xi,βti)−σ−1b(t,Xi,αti))dWti. Player i then receives
Under (S), (C) and (F), there is a sequence ϵn≥0, ϵn→0, such that for all n≥1, 1≤i≤n and β∈An,
Jn,i(α1,…,αi−1,β,αi+1,…,αn)≤Jn,i(α1,…,αn)+ϵn.
No rate is claimed; the theorem asserts only that the gain from deviating vanishes uniformly over players and deviations.
Milestones
Lemma 5.6 (p. 16): for compact K, joint continuity of G:E×K→R at {x0}×K is equivalent to continuity of G(x0,⋅) together with continuity at x0 of x↦supy∈K∣G(x,y)−G(x0,y)∣.
Lemma 8.1 (p. 32): for empirically measurable F with ∣F(x,μ)∣≤c(ψ(x)+∫ψdμ) and F(x,⋅) continuous at μ^, E∣F(Xi,μn)−F(Xi,μ^)∣p→0 for p∈[1,2).
The Lp bound (p. 33): {dPn(βα)/dP:β∈An,n≥1} is bounded in Lp for each p≥1, where βα=(β,α2,…,αn).
Lemma 8.2 (p. 32): supβ∈An∣Jn,1(βα)−Jn′(β)∣→0, where Jn′(β)=EPn(βα)[∫0Tf(t,X1,μ^,q^t,βt)dt+g(X1,μ^)].
Lemma 8.3 (p. 33): Jn′(α1)≥Jn′(β) for every β∈An.
Significance
Theorem 4.2 states the sense in which an MFG solution solves the finite game. It covers path-dependent and merely measurable coefficients, interaction through the law of the controls, and full-information deviations against distributed strategies. In the paper it underlies the applications of §6: the price impact model, where Proposition 6.1 adds the rate C/n, and the flocking model. The result is qualitative: it gives no rate in general.
The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked proof of it or of its lemmas exists on the platform. The mission produces a formal statement layer for weak-formulation MFGs: path space, Pψ with τψ, Girsanov densities over Itô versions, Definition 3.4, and the n-player game. It then asks for the formal proof of the theorem. Missions 1 and 2 of this series (existence and uniqueness of MFG solutions) use the same model encoding. The strong-formulation result of Carmona and Delarue is a separate statement with a separate model and is not part of this mission.
Difficulty
The obvious route replaces μn by μ^ and qn(βt) by q^t in Jn,i and appeals to the law of large numbers. This fails for two reasons. First, the expectation is taken under Pn(β), which depends on the deviation β, and β may depend on all players' states. The convergence therefore has to be uniform over a class of measures and requires uniform integrability of the densities. Second, τψ is neither metrizable nor separable. Continuity in μ does not reduce to sequences, and dominated convergence does not hold for nets, so the almost sure convergence of empirical measures does not by itself transfer to the rewards. The remaining step asks whether full information helps the deviating player against the limiting environment. It is not a direct consequence of the optimality of α^ in the mean field problem, which is posed over a smaller filtration.
Formalization scope
Paths and time. States are Fin d → ℝ. C is C(Set.Icc 0 T, Fin d → ℝ) with its Borel σ-field. Time is ℝ≥0; only [0,T] matters.
Measures and topologies.Pψ(C) is a structure carrying τψ as its only topology. P(A) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure A with the weak topology and its Borel σ-field. Progressive measurability uses the canonical filtration on C.
Base space. It is abstract: any probability space with ξ and an independent Brownian motion W. The canonical space is an instance. Filtrations are augmented by the measurable null sets.
Stochastic integrals. All stochastic integrals come from the published Peng1990.SMP.StochasticL2 Itô layer. "Strong solution" therefore includes square integrability, E∫0T∥σ(t,X)∥2dt<∞ and suptE∣Xt−ξ∣2<∞.
Assumptions (S). Nonsingularity of σ is encoded as invertibility of detσ. The "increasing" ρ of (S.4) is encoded as monotone.
Densities and values. A density is a relation over versions of the Itô integrals. Every statement asserts that a version exists and holds for every version, so no statement holds because the set of versions is empty. Jn,i and Jn′ are computed as EP[D(⋯)] for a version D. Suprema over An are unfolded into ∀ε∃N form, never written as real ⨆.
Players. Players are indexed from 0, so player 1 is index 0.
Hypotheses. (S), (C), (F), the fixed solution with its closed-loop control and the game space are bundled into one structure.
Two readings of the goal would make it trivial, and the statement excludes both. If ϵ were allowed to depend on i or β, the bound would carry no content. If the deviation were evaluated under the undeviated measure P instead of Pn(β), the game would be a different one. (F.4) is genuine continuity, not the sequential continuity of (E).
A complete development needs:
the strong law of large numbers for i.i.d. path-valued variables tested against Bψ functions;
Lp bounds for Doléans exponentials of bounded integrands;
Girsanov's theorem for the L2 Itô layer;
comparison for BSDEs (Pardoux–Peng).
The Girsanov and BSDE comparison results are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions, as are proofs of Lemma 5.6 and of the Lp bound.
M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
From the Master Equation to Mean Field Game Limit Theory: Large Deviations and Concentration of Measure 2: Nash Equilibrium Empirical Measure Flows Satisfy a Weak LDP Under Common NoiseResearch Paper
Motivation
A mean field game describes the Nash equilibria of n symmetric players whose states interact only through their empirical distribution, in the limit n→∞. The law of large numbers for the equilibria — convergence of the empirical measure of the n-player equilibrium to the mean field equilibrium — was proved in the diffusion setting by Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions through the master equation (arXiv:1509.02505), and refined by Delarue, Lacker and Ramanan into fluctuation estimates and a central limit theorem in a companion paper (Electron. J. Probab. 2019). The next question is the size of rare deviations: the probability that the n-player equilibrium empirical measure flow stays near a flow different from the mean field limit decays exponentially in n, and the exponent is a rate function. Delarue, Lacker and Ramanan (arXiv:1804.08550) prove such a large deviation principle (LDP), including the case of a common noise affecting all players, for which no LDP was previously known even for McKean–Vlasov particle systems.
Timeline. Dawson and Gärtner (1987) proved the LDP for the empirical measure flows of weakly interacting diffusions without common noise, with time-independent coefficients and deterministic initial states, using the action functional adopted here. Budhiraja, Dupuis and Fischer (Ann. Probab. 2012) gave a weak-convergence proof for the empirical measure of paths. For mean field games, master-equation methods gave limit theorems, including LDPs, for finite state spaces without common noise (Cecchin–Fischer, arXiv:1704.00984; Cecchin–Pelino, arXiv:1707.01819; Bayraktar–Cohen, arXiv:1707.02648), and Lacker and Ramanan proved an LDP for static games (arXiv:1702.02113). The present paper (arXiv v1, 2018; Ann. Probab. 2020) treats diffusion-based games, with common noise.
Setting
On a filtered probability space (Ω,F,F,P) live a d0-dimensional Brownian motion W (the common noise), independent d-dimensional Brownian motions B1,B2,…, and i.i.d. initial states X01,X02,… with law μ0. The whole initial-state family is independent of the joint noise family, as specified for (6.1). Player i of n controls
with running cost f and terminal cost g. With the Hamiltonian H(x,m,y)=infa[b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a)], its minimizer α^ and b^(x,m,y)=b(x,m,α^(x,m,y)), a classical solution (vn,i)i of the Nash system (2.6) gives the equilibrium states
The master equation (2.8) is a PDE for U(t,x,m) on [0,T]×Rd×P2(Rd) involving derivatives in the measure argument. Assumption A asks for Lipschitz b^ (with exponent p∗∈[1,2] for the Wasserstein metric), non-degenerate σ, p′>4 moments of μ0, classical solutions of the Nash systems, and a classical solution U of the master equation with bounded derivatives; B or B′ controls f^.
The state space is C([0,T];P1(Rd)): flows ν=(νt) of probability measures with finite first moment, continuous for the 1-Wasserstein distance W1, with the uniform metric suptW1(νt,νt′). The rate function uses the drift b~(t,x,m)=b^(x,m,DxU(t,x,m)) and the Dawson–Gärtner action functional
with ∥γ∥m2=supφ⟨γ,φ⟩2/⟨m,∣Dφ∣2⟩ over test functions, and I=∞ off absolutely continuous paths. With common noise, the drift is shifted along the mean path: I~ϕ is I for the drift b~(t,x+ϕt,m∘τ−ϕt−1), τx(z)=z−x, and
Exponential equivalence of the Nash flows and the McKean–Vlasov particle flows (Corollary 6.1); a weak LDP for the noises and initial states (Proposition 6.15); uniform continuity of the McKean–Vlasov solution map (Lemma 6.16); the shifted action (Lemma 6.4); identification of the contracted entropy (Lemma 6.17); the weak LDP for general weakly interacting systems with common noise (Theorem 6.8) and its transfer to the Nash flows (Theorem 6.13); compactness after centering (Proposition 6.11); removal of the δ-relaxation on compacts, and the full LDP without common noise (Proposition 6.10); explicit forms of Jσ0 (Proposition 6.5, Theorem 6.6). A companion item states Theorem 3.9: without common noise, a full LDP with the good rate function I(ν)+R(ν0∣μ0).
Significance
The result quantifies how unlikely atypical equilibrium behaviour is in large games: rare macroscopic deviations of the equilibrium empirical measure flow cost exp(−nrate), and the rate function makes explicit that the common noise moves the mean of the population for free in the directions of the image of σ0. When σ0=0 the rate function has non-compact level sets, which is why the principle is weak and why the closed-set bound carries the δ-relaxation.
The proof transfers the LDP from the McKean–Vlasov particle system to the Nash system through the master equation, a method that applies beyond this model. Nothing in this paper is formalized: there is no large deviation principle, no Wasserstein space of measure flows, no derivative on Wasserstein space and no mean field game on the platform. A formal development produces reusable definitions (weak and full LDPs, the Dawson–Gärtner action functional, C([0,T];P1)) and checked proofs of the contraction and exponential-equivalence steps. The exponential estimate behind Corollary 6.1 (Theorem 4.3) is the companion mission's milestone and rests on estimates quoted from the companion central-limit-theorem paper.
Difficulty
The obvious route — exponential equivalence plus the Dawson–Gärtner LDP for the particle system — fails twice. The particle drift b~ is time-dependent and the initial states are random, which the classical results do not cover; and with common noise there is no LDP to transfer. The proof instead freezes the noise: it proves a weak LDP for the pair (empirical measure of initial states and idiosyncratic paths, common noise path), which needs Sanov's theorem in the W1 topology and the Brownian support theorem, and contracts it through the McKean–Vlasov solution map. The contraction principle requires the rate function to be good, and it is not when σ0=0; uniform continuity of the solution map and the δ-enlargements replace goodness.
Formalization scope
Time is [0,T]⊂R≥0 with T>0; paths are continuous maps on [0,T], and solutions of the SDEs are path-valued, adapted, and satisfy the integral equations almost surely. Players are indexed from 0. Probability measures with finite p-th moment are guarded by an explicit predicate, and Wp is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance, kept in [0,∞]. Derivatives in x, v, t are genuine derivatives; derivatives in the measure are normalized flat-derivative witnesses. Relative entropy is Mathlib's klDiv. Logarithms of probabilities are in [−∞,∞]; open, closed and compact sets are those of the uniform W1 metric, and limδ↘0 is a supremum over δ>0. The action functional is an infimum over all distributional time derivatives, with test functions and distributions from Mathlib. The common-noise paths are d0-dimensional.
Standing assumptions are carried explicitly: the filtered space and noises of §2.3, joint independence of initial states and noises from §6.1, Assumption A (with the Borel measurability of b,f,g), B or B′, p∗=1 where the paper assumes it, and, for §6, Condition 6.3 and non-degenerate σ. Two disclosed additions: Theorems 3.9, 3.10 and 6.13 assume b~ bounded (Condition 6.3(2) requires it; Assumption A does not imply it), and Theorem 6.13 assumes p∗=1. The solutions of the Nash systems, the master equation and the SDEs are hypotheses; existence is not posed.
A rate function identically 0 or ∞, or bounds over a restricted family of sets, would trivialize the statements: the seminorm is a supremum over all test functions, I=∞ exactly off absolutely continuous flows, and the bounds quantify over every open, compact or closed set. A complete development needs Sanov's theorem in W1, the Brownian support theorem, the contraction principle, Dawson–Gärtner's analysis of distribution-valued paths, and stochastic calculus for the particle systems; each of these is reusable, and contributions to any of them are welcome.
Selected references
F. Delarue, D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: large deviations and concentration of measure, Ann. Probab. 48(1), 2020; arXiv v1, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.08550
F. Delarue, D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: a central limit theorem, Electron. J. Probab. 24, 2019 (reference [19] of the paper).
P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Ann. Math. Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
D. Dawson, J. Gärtner, Large deviations from the McKean–Vlasov limit for weakly interacting diffusions, Stochastics 20(4), 1987, 247–308.
A. Budhiraja, P. Dupuis, M. Fischer, Large deviation properties of weakly interacting processes via weak convergence methods, Ann. Probab. 40(1), 2012, 74–102.
R. Wang, X. Wang, L. Wu, Sanov's theorem in the Wasserstein distance: a necessary and sufficient condition, Statist. Probab. Lett. 80(5), 2010, 505–512.
A. Cecchin, G. Pelino, Convergence, fluctuations and large deviations for finite state mean field games via the master equation, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.01819
D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, Rare Nash equilibria and the price of anarchy in large static games, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.02113
Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment III: With a Fixed Cost of Quality, the Encroaching Manufacturer Does Not Differentiate Quality Across ChannelsResearch Paper
Why channel quality matters
A manufacturer that sells through a retailer can also open a direct sales channel. The direct channel lets the manufacturer reach consumers, but it competes with the retailer, whose orders generate wholesale revenue. The manufacturer can further choose whether the two channels carry products of the same quality. These decisions interact because quality changes both consumer demand and the retailer's response. Ha, Long and Nasiry study this interaction in a sequential supply-chain game. Their fixed-quality-cost extension asks what happens when a high-quality design can be converted into a lower-quality variant without paying a separate production cost for each unit (Ha, Long and Nasiry, §6.2).
The main result is specific to this cost regime. With a cost per unit that rises with quality, different products can be attractive across the channels; with the paper's one-time cost of creating quality, Proposition 6(i) asserts equal qualities when the direct channel makes positive sales. This mission targets that fixed-cost proposition in the authors' manuscript, including its game and the reduced-profit claims used in the e-Companion (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36–37).
The sequential market
The market has mass one of consumers, indexed by a taste for qualityθ uniformly distributed on [0,1]. A consumer buying a product of quality v>0 at price p receives surplus θv−p. The manufacturer offers quality u>0 through her own direct channel and quality tu>0 through the retailer. The ratio t therefore records which channel has higher quality. The manufacturer pays a fixed cost of qualitymax{ku2,k(tu)2}, with k>0, and a direct selling cost c≥0 per unit. The retailer has zero selling cost. Unlike a unit production cost, this fixed cost is paid once and does not scale with either channel's quantity (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 7–8, 20).
The manufacturer first chooses wholesale price w and qualities u,tu. After observing them, the retailer chooses its order qR≥0. The manufacturer observes that order and chooses her direct quantity qM≥0. When 0<t≤1, market-clearing prices are
pM=u(1−qM−tqR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR).
When t≥1, the retailer's product has higher quality, and the corresponding prices are
pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−uqM.
The manufacturer receives wholesale revenue plus direct-channel revenue, less the direct selling cost and fixed quality cost. The retailer receives its retail margin times qR. Encroachment means qM>0 on the equilibrium path, rather than the mere existence of a direct channel (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 8, 11, 15, 36).
Formalization targets
Equal quality under encroachment
For a subgame-perfect equilibriumσ of the fixed-cost game, the goal is Proposition 6(i):
qM(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.
The formal statement assumes c>0. At c=0, the high-direct-quality reduced profit is independent of t, so the printed claim fails to force t=1; this is a substantive qualification of the manuscript's standing c≥0 convention. The goal concerns the complete game, with contingent actions at every decision node, rather than only the closed-form optimization problem (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36).
Subgame and optimization claims
The milestone list follows the authors' two quality regimes. The e-Companion gives best responses, wholesale prices, and reduced profits in each regime. In the high-direct-quality regime, Claim 3 concludes that an optimum with positive direct sales has t=1. In the low-direct-quality regime, Lemma 2 concludes that an optimum either has t=1 or lies at no encroachment. The latter alternative is outside the strict encroachment-feasible set used by the Lean milestone. Footnote 2 supplies a one-variable sign inequality used in the analysis of that regime (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).
What the result gives
Proposition 6(i) determines the manufacturer's quality choice conditional on active direct sales: both channels carry quality u. It narrows the set of equilibrium outcomes that the fixed-cost model can support and distinguishes the role of a one-time design cost from the paper's earlier variable-cost model. The paper states a separate profit comparison in Proposition 6(ii); this mission does not formalize it because the e-Companion omits its proof and the fixed-cost no-encroachment benchmark for that comparison is not stated (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 37).
A complete Lean development would connect the reduced-profit calculations on page 36 to subgame-perfect play in the three-stage game, and establish the optimization claims over their stated feasible sets. The definitions of two-quality inverse demand, contingent strategies, and nodewise optimality are reusable for related channel games. The goal and milestones here are draft statements, without machine-checked proofs of their economic conclusions.
Central difficulty
The manufacturer chooses quality and wholesale price before the retailer's order, yet the direct quantity is chosen only after that order. Consequently, the retailer's payoff depends on the manufacturer's continuation response, and the first-stage choice must account for both later decisions. The reduced profit also changes at t=1, where the higher-quality channel switches. A calculation for one regime alone does not establish the full-game claim. The strict qM>0 region matters: its boundary represents no encroachment and supports a different alternative in Lemma 2 (Ha, Long and Nasiry, p. 36).
Formalization scope
Lean uses real wholesale prices and qualities, positive u and t, and nonnegative quantities. Wholesale price has no sign restriction in the manuscript. The market has unit size and the retailer's selling cost is zero. The two inverse-demand expressions are applied to all nonnegative quantities, following the paper's algebraic game model. A profile contains a stage-one action, a retailer order rule for every observed (w,u,t), and a direct-quantity rule for every observed (w,u,t,qR). Subgame perfection requires feasible best replies at every such history, including histories off the equilibrium path. Fixed cost is max{ku2,k(tu)2}, paid once, while cqM is a per-unit selling cost.
The reduced profits ΠHi and ΠLo are used only on their respective open encroachment-feasible domains, where the displayed denominators are positive. Claim 3 is stated for a joint maximizer in (t,u); keeping u fixed while moving to t=1 can leave that feasible set. Lemma 2 excludes the no-encroachment boundary in its Lean statement. Neither reduced profit replaces the full-game payoff in the goal. Contributions that connect the subgame formulas to arbitrary equilibrium profiles, prove the sign inequality, or establish the two optimization results are within scope (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).
Selected references
A. Ha, X. Long and J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, authors' manuscript, SSRN 3970373, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. Manuscript. Journal DOI.
Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment II: Under Quality Differentiation the Direct Channel Carries the High-Quality Product, the Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer LosesResearch Paper
Motivation
Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers while continuing to supply independent retailers, a practice known as supply chain encroachment. The direct channel competes with the retailer for the same consumers, and the conventional advice for easing that conflict is to sell different products in the two channels. Ha, Long and Nasiry (MSOM 18(2), 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) study this advice in a model where the manufacturer chooses product quality herself. This mission formalizes their Section 5: when the manufacturer may offer one quality directly and another through the retailer, which channel gets the better product, when is differentiation worth it, and who gains from encroachment.
The model builds on two lines of work. With exogenous quality, Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that encroachment can benefit both firms, through a lower wholesale price. Vertical differentiation with a convex cost of quality goes back to Mussa and Rosen (JET, 1978), Moorthy (1988) and Motta (1993), where differentiation lets firms segment the market. The paper combines the two and finds that, once quality is endogenous, the retailer never gains.
Setting
A market of size 1 consists of consumers with types θ uniformly distributed on [0,1]; a consumer of type θ obtains surplus θv−p from a product of quality v at price p. A manufacturer sells a product of qualityu>0 through her direct channel and a product of quality tu, with quality ratiot>0, through a retailer. Producing one unit of quality v costs kv2 (k>0); every unit sold directly costs a further direct selling costc≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 0.
With quantities qM (direct) and qR (retailer), the market-clearing prices are, for t≤1 (direct channel carries the higher quality),
pM=u(1−qM−tqR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR),
and for t>1 (retailer carries the higher quality)
pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−uqM.
The profits are ΠR=(pR−w)qR and ΠM=(w−k(tu)2)qR+(pM−c−ku2)qM.
The game has three stages: (i) the manufacturer chooses a wholesale pricew, the quality u and the ratio t; (ii) the retailer orders qR≥0; (iii) the manufacturer chooses qM≥0. Solutions are subgame-perfect equilibria. The manufacturer encroaches when qM∗>0 on the equilibrium path. Fixing t=1 gives the uniform-quality game of §4.1. The benchmark of §3.2 has no direct channel; its equilibrium profits are ΠMN=54k1 and ΠRN=108k1.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 4(ii)
In every subgame-perfect equilibrium with qM∗>0,
ΠM∗>54k1=ΠMNandΠR∗<108k1=ΠRN.
The statement makes no assumption on which quality the manufacturer chooses, on the size of c or on the form of the equilibrium; the constants are the benchmark's.
Milestones
The benchmark equilibrium (uN=3k1, wN=9k2, qRN=61 and the two profits), p. 9.
The quantity subgame (7) for t<1, p. 16, and the reduced profit ΠM(t,u) obtained by optimizing w, p. 29.
Lemma 1(i)–(ii): the manufacturer's optimal ratio t(u) for given u, when the retailer's product is lower (t≤1) or higher (t≥1) quality.
Claim 1 and Lemma 1(iii): for c<12k1 the profits of the two kinds of differentiation cross exactly once in u.
Proposition 3: under encroachment, t∗≤1.
Proposition 1(iii) in the uniform-quality game.
Claim 2 and Proposition 4(i): thresholds 0<c1<c2 such that the manufacturer differentiates (t∗<1) for c<c1, uses uniform quality for c1<c<c2, and does not encroach for c>c2.
Companions
The §6.1 benchmark in which both qualities go through the retailer (ΠMN2=50k1, ΠRN2=100k1), Proposition 5 (the win–lose outcome against that benchmark), and the existence of an equilibrium. The threshold milestones assert existence for each cost, so their conclusions have an equilibrium to describe.
Significance
Proposition 4(ii) says that letting the manufacturer differentiate quality across channels does not change who wins: the manufacturer still gains from encroachment and the retailer still loses, although one might expect the retailer to benefit from not facing an identical product. Proposition 3 adds that differentiation, when used, puts the higher quality in the direct channel, and Proposition 4(i) shows that for intermediate selling costs the manufacturer prefers no differentiation at all, contrary to the monopoly intuition that segmentation always pays. Proposition 5 shows the conclusion persists against a benchmark in which the retailer already carries a two-product line.
The results are proved in the paper, in part with numerical verification (e.g. the bounds on u^ in the proof of Proposition 3, and the location of c1 and c2). None of them has been machine-checked. A formal development would turn these numerical steps into proofs and would leave a reusable, explicit model of a three-stage Stackelberg game with a vertically differentiated linear demand.
Difficulty
The equilibrium analysis is not a single concave program. Backward induction produces closed forms only on regions (the retailer's order must leave the manufacturer a positive direct quantity, and the retailer's quantity must stay positive), and the manufacturer's stage-1 problem is a comparison across these regions and across t<1, t=1 and t>1. The profit of low-quality encroachment, ΠML(u), involves a square root in u, and the paper controls its critical points by a case analysis on polynomial derivatives with numerically located crossing points (pp. 39–40). The thresholds c1≈0.0973/k and c2≈0.1019/k are defined implicitly by the equality of maximized profits. Comparing the equilibrium profit with 54k1 therefore requires bounding a maximum taken over a piecewise-defined family, not evaluating one formula.
Formalization scope
The game is defined in QualityEncroach.Differ.Game. Quantities are restricted to be nonnegative; the wholesale price is unrestricted, as in the paper; qualities satisfy u>0, t>0. The price formulas are used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper; the t>1 case, which the paper says "can be derived similarly", is that derivation. The equilibrium notion is subgame perfection written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, on and off the path. Benchmark profits appear as the constants 54k1, 108k1 (and 50k1, 100k1); separate items derive them from the benchmark games. Threshold statements give c2>0 and 0<c1<c2 depending only on k, assert equilibrium existence at every c≥0, and say nothing at c=c2, where the paper's statements disagree. Lemma 1 and Claim 1 are stated about the paper's reduced-form profits, defined by the displayed formulas in QualityEncroach.Differ.Reduced; the item reduced_profit_high links ΠM(t,u) for t≤1 to the game. Claim 1 retains c=0 and quantifies only over positive qualities, so no reduced form is evaluated at u=0.
The goal is about subgame-perfect equilibria of the game, not about the reduced forms: a proof that only compares closed-form profits does not prove it without the milestones linking those forms to equilibrium play. The goal is not vacuous only if an equilibrium with qM∗>0 exists; the companion spe_exists asserts existence.
Contributions are welcome at every level: the benchmark and the quantity subgame are routine calculus on quadratics; Lemma 1(i)–(ii) are one-variable sign analyses; Claim 1, Lemma 1(iii), Proposition 3 and the thresholds require the case analyses of the appendix.
A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 2: Under Unique Hamiltonian Maximizers and Lasry–Lions Monotonicity, the Mean Field Game Has at Most One SolutionResearch Paper
Motivation
Mean field games, introduced independently by Lasry and Lions (Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006), describe the Nash equilibria of games with a very large number of symmetric players, each of whom reacts only to the empirical distribution of the others. In the limit, an equilibrium is a fixed point: a flow of population laws such that the optimal response of a single representative player to that flow reproduces it.
Existence of such fixed points is typically obtained by compactness, and says nothing about whether the equilibrium is determined by the data. Uniqueness matters for the use of the model: a unique equilibrium can be computed, approximated, and compared across parameters, while multiple equilibria raise a selection problem. Lasry and Lions showed by counterexamples that uniqueness fails in general, and identified a monotonicity condition on the population-dependent part of the reward under which it holds; outside that condition, uniqueness is typically available only for short horizons and Lipschitz coefficients.
Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152v2, 2014; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015) set up a weak formulation of mean field games in which the controlled state is obtained from a fixed driftless diffusion by a Girsanov change of measure, so that the coefficients may be merely measurable in the state and path dependent. This mission formalizes their uniqueness theorem (Theorem 3.8): the Lasry–Lions argument carried out in the weak formulation, through backward stochastic differential equations.
Setting
Fix a horizon T, a dimension d, the path space C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm, and a measurable ψ:C→[1,∞). Write Pψ(C) for the probability measures μ on C with ∫ψdμ<∞. A control setA is a compact convex subset of a normed space, and P(A) is the set of probability measures on A with the weak topology.
On a probability space (Ω,P) carrying an initial state ξ and an independent d-dimensional Brownian motion W, filtered by the augmented filtration of (ξ,W), let X solve the driftless state equationdXt=σ(t,X)dWt, X0=ξ. The admissible controlsA are the progressively measurable A-valued processes. For μ∈Pψ(C) and α∈A the measure Pμ,α has density
dPdPμ,α=E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt)dWt)T,
under which X has drift b(t,X,μ,αt). For a flow q:[0,T]→P(A) the reward is
Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0Tf(t,X,μ,qt,αt)dt+g(X,μ)].
A pair (μ,q) is a solution of the MFG (Definition 3.4) if some α∈A maximizes Jμ,q over A, Pμ,α∘X−1=μ, and Pμ,α∘αt−1=qt for almost every t.
The Hamiltonian is h(t,x,μ,q,z,a)=f(t,x,μ,q,a)+z⋅σ−1b(t,x,μ,a), with maximum H over a∈A and maximizer set A(t,x,μ,q,z). Assumption (U) asks that (U.1) the maximizer is unique; (U.2) b=b(t,x,a) does not depend on μ; (U.3) f=f1(t,x,μ)+f2(t,μ,q)+f3(t,x,a); and (U.4) the Lasry–Lions monotonicity condition
∫C[g(x,μ)−g(x,μ′)+∫0T(f1(t,x,μ)−f1(t,x,μ′))dt](μ−μ′)(dx)≤0for all μ,μ′.
The standing assumptions (S) of the paper (measurability, continuity in a, nonsingular σ, bounded σ−1b, a ψ-growth bound on f,g, and a separation of f) are in force throughout.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3.8
Under (S) and (U), if (μ1,q1) and (μ2,q2) are solutions of the MFG, then
μ1=μ2andqt1=qt2for almost every t∈[0,T].
Definition 3.4 constrains qt only for almost every t, so this is the strongest identification possible.
Milestones
§7.3, p. 30. For a solution (μ,q) with optimal control α and a solution (Y,Z) of the BSDE Yt=g(X,μ)+∫tTH(s,X,μ,qs,Zs)ds−∫tTZsdWs (7.1), αt maximizes the Hamiltonian at Zt, dt×dP-a.e.; under (U.1) every such maximizing control agrees with α a.e.
(7.9)–(7.10).E[Y01−Y02] written as an expectation under Pμ1,α1 and under Pμ2,α2.
(7.11)–(7.12). Pointwise bounds from maximization of the Hamiltonian, strict when the controls differ.
(7.13).[Eμ1,α1−Eμ2,α2][Δg(X)+∫0TΔf1(t,X)dt]=0.
§7.3, p. 31.α1=α2, L×P-a.e.
Significance
Theorem 3.8, combined with the existence theorem of the same paper (Theorem 3.5, the first mission of this series), gives existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium (Corollary 3.9) for coefficients that are only measurable and path dependent in the state, under a monotonicity condition and no Lipschitz or small-horizon requirement. Uniqueness is also what makes the approximation result of the paper (Theorem 4.2, the third mission) refer to the equilibrium.
The result is proved in the paper. It has not been machine-checked; no mean field game uniqueness theorem in a weak or Girsanov formulation is formalized in Lean or Mathlib. The formal development would contain, as reusable parts, the Doléans exponential of a bounded Itô integrand as a probability density, the change of Brownian motion under it, the comparison principle for BSDEs with Lipschitz drivers, and the Lasry–Lions monotonicity argument.
Difficulty
The argument compares two equilibria through two different measures Pμ1,α1 and Pμ2,α2. The direct Lasry–Lions computation, which differentiates a pairing of a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman solution with a Fokker–Planck solution, is not available: there is no PDE, and the value functions are only known through BSDEs. The proof needs (a) that an optimal control maximizes the Hamiltonian along the adjoint process Z — the necessity half of the BSDE optimality criterion, which the paper uses without a displayed proof; (b) the representation of E[Y01−Y02] under each of the two measures, which requires that the stochastic integrals ∫(Z1−Z2)dWμi,αi be true martingales under the changed measures; and (c) turning a strict pointwise inequality on a set of positive dt×dP-measure into a strict inequality of expectations, which uses the equivalence P∼Pμi,αi.
Formalization scope
The Lean development lives in the namespace WeakMFG.Uniqueness and builds on the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (Brownian motion, L2 Itô integrals, Itô processes, BSDEs). Conventions:
Base space. Any probability space carrying ξ and an independent standard Brownian motion W, with the filtration σ(ξ)∨σ(Ws:s≤t) completed by the measurable null sets; the canonical space of the paper is an instance.
State. "Strong solution" of dX=σ(t,X)dW is read in the L2 Itô theory (square-integrable solutions); σ(t,X)>0 is matrix invertibility; states are vectors of Rd with the sup norm, Euclidean squares written as sums of squares.
Measures.Pψ(C) is a structure carrying the topology τψ; P(A) has the weak topology and its Borel σ-field; time is R≥0, of which only [0,T] enters.
Densities. Itô integrals are determined up to versions, so dPμ,α/dP is a predicate on a random variable; statements assert that a version exists and hold for every version. Optimality is stated against every admissible competitor, never through a real supremum.
Added hypotheses, disclosed. Joint measurability of (t,x,q,a)↦f(t,x,μ,q,a), which the reward presupposes; in (U.4), integrability of the integrals the page writes; the slip in (U.3), which omits q from the arguments of f, is corrected.
A formalization whose hypotheses contain the conclusion is ruled out: the goal assumes only that the two pairs are solutions in the sense of Definition 3.4 — no BSDE solution, no Hamiltonian maximization, no equality of densities is assumed. Uniqueness of q is stated almost everywhere in time, and nowhere is equality of the two optimal controls as functions asked for.
Contributions welcome: the Doléans exponential and Girsanov's theorem for bounded drifts in the L2 Itô layer, existence and comparison for Lipschitz BSDEs on a filtration enlarged by an independent initial condition, and the measurable maximum theorem for the Hamiltonian. These are reusable beyond this mission, in particular by the other two missions of the series.
Selected references
R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, arXiv:1307.1152v2, 2014; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Communications in Information and Systems 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
From the Master Equation to Mean Field Game Limit Theory: Large Deviations and Concentration of Measure 1: Without Common Noise, n-Player Nash Equilibria Concentrate Dimension-FreeResearch Paper
Motivation
A large stochastic game has one state process per player. Each player's feedback changes with the empirical distribution of all states, so a finite population remains coupled even when the idiosyncratic Brownian motions are independent. A useful quantitative question is whether a statistic of the entire collection of equilibrium trajectories can deviate substantially from its mean as the population grows. Delarue, Lacker, and Ramanan answer this for smooth closed-loop mean-field games in their large-deviations and concentration paper. Their result concerns the equilibrium state paths themselves, rather than only a fixed-time empirical measure.
The paper is part of a two-paper limit theory. Its companion central-limit paper supplies the Nash-to-McKean–Vlasov estimates quoted here as Theorems 4.1 and 4.2. The concentration argument also uses transport inequalities: Gozlan's dimension-free characterization explains the quadratic transport assumption on the initial law, while Djellout, Guillin, and Wu provide a transport principle for diffusion path laws. The present mission records the paper's main concentration theorem and four of its explicit intermediate targets.
Setting
Fix a horizon T>0 and a positive state dimension d. Player i has a continuous state path Xi∈Cd=C([0,T];Rd). The empirical measure of a vector x=(x1,…,xn) is mxn=n−1∑iδxi; the same formula applies to paths. The norm on Cd is ∥x∥∞=supt≤T∣xt∣, and the product norm relevant to this mission is ∥x∥n,2=(∑i∥xi∥∞2)1/2.
The game is posed on a filtered probability space with a common Wiener process W, independent idiosyncratic Wiener processes Bi, and i.i.d. initial states X0i of law μ0. The action space is Polish. A drift b(x,m,a), running cost f(x,m,a), and terminal cost g(x,m) specify the control problem. The HamiltonianH(x,m,y) minimizes b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a) over actions; a selected minimizer α^ defines b^=b(⋅,α^) and f^=f(⋅,α^).
Classical solutions vn,i of the n-player Nash system (2.6) determine the feedback in the equilibrium state equation (2.7). A classical solution U of the master equation (2.8) determines the comparison particle equation (4.1). Both equations retain common-noise terms in their definitions. The goal sets the common-noise coefficient σ0 to zero. Assumption A imposes Hamiltonian attainment, Lipschitz b^, nondegenerate idiosyncratic diffusion, an initial moment above order four, and the stated classical solutions. Either B or B′ controls the selected running cost; B′ also bounds U and vn,ias specified on pp. 8–9.
Formalization targets
The goal is Theorem 3.4. If μ0 satisfies the quadratic transport inequalityW2(μ0,ν)≤2κR(ν∣μ0) for every ν≪μ0 with finite second moment, then constants C,δ1,δ2>0 exist such that, for a>0, n≥C/a2, and every 1-Lipschitz Φ on the product path space,
P(Φ(X)−EΦ(X)>a)≤2nexp(−δ1a2n)+2exp(−δ2a2).
The four milestones retain the paper's two main comparison layers. Theorem 4.3 controls both the path-space Wasserstein distance between the Nash and comparison empirical measures and their synchronous squared path distance by 2nexp(−ε2n2/κ2) for n≥κ1/ε. Theorem 5.3 gives a dimension-uniform transport inequality and concentration bound for the law of a Lipschitz SDE in the coordinatewise product-supremum norm. Equation (5.7) bounds the change in a 1-Lipschitz path expectation when the deterministic initial vector changes. Theorem 5.4 gives P(Φ(X~)−EΦ(X~)>a)≤2e−δa2 for the interacting comparison system. The labels, constants, and domains follow the pinned preprint, pp. 12 and 16–20.
Significance
Theorem 3.4 supplies a finite-population tail estimate for every 1-Lipschitz observable of the entire equilibrium path vector. The first term becomes small at a population-dependent scale, while the second term has a rate independent of the number of players. This is stronger information than convergence of the empirical measure alone: it applies to path-dependent statistics and includes explicit deviation probabilities Theorem 3.4.
The mathematical statements are proved in the source paper, subject to its assumptions; Theorems 4.1 and 4.2 that support its comparison result are proved in the companion paper. The work here is to give these claims faithful machine-checkable statements and ultimately machine-checked proofs. The present draft is a set of open Lean theorem statements with sorry, so it asserts no completed formal proof. A completed development would also make its definitions of empirical path laws, Wasserstein continuity, flat derivatives, and interacting SDE solutions reusable for other mean-field models.
Difficulty
Independent-noise concentration cannot simply be applied to the Nash state paths. A player's drift depends on the empirical state measure and on a derivative of the n-player Nash solution, so changing one input can change every trajectory. The master equation describes a comparison system, but using it requires matching the Nash and master feedbacks on the same filtered probability space. The regularity in Assumptions A, B, and B′ is substantial: the master field has first and second derivatives in both space and measure, with uniform bounds. A formal proof must also preserve the exact path norm and the population-independent placement of constants. The SDE transport theorem's uniformity over dimensions is particularly consequential for Theorem 5.4 §§4–5.
Formalization scope
State vectors use finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces; time uses nonnegative reals and only [0,T] is evaluated. A continuous path is a ContinuousMap on that interval with its supremum norm. Finite products use PiLp 2; the scalar-coordinate version of the norm is used for Theorem 5.3. Players are indexed from zero, corresponding to the paper's indices 1,…,n, and every theorem requires n≥1. Probabilities and entropy are extended nonnegative values. Transport distances stay extended until a finite-moment hypothesis justifies their real value.
The filtered Wiener processes, i.i.d. initial states, Borel coefficients, Polish action space, Nash and master PDEs, and either B or B′ are represented explicitly. The master equation is imposed on P2; its spatial gradient is also required on Pp∗, as Assumption A(5) specifies. A flat measure derivative is a normalized witness satisfying (2.2), while spatial derivatives are actual Fréchet derivatives. SDE solutions are path-valued processes satisfying coordinate Itô integral relations; solution families are supplied as hypotheses, since their existence is asserted by the source. Expectations appearing in the conclusions are stated integrable, so a default zero integral cannot satisfy a tail bound accidentally. The model cannot be replaced by arbitrary paths or a vacuous solution predicate: the Nash and comparison paths must satisfy their respective equations with the same noises and initial states.
The mission includes Theorem 4.3, Theorem 5.3, (5.7), and Theorem 5.4. The quoted Theorems 4.1 and 4.2, the general transport equivalence of Theorem 5.1, and tensorization in Theorem 5.2 remain useful later contributions, with their original hypotheses and conclusions intact. The printed constant in the “moreover” clause of Theorem 5.1 is omitted because it is dimensionally incorrect; no substitute assertion is placed in this mission.
Selected references
F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: Large deviations and concentration of measure, Annals of Probability 48 (2020), 211–263; formalization follows arXiv:1804.08550v1.
F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: A central limit theorem, preprint (2018), arXiv:1804.08542.
N. Gozlan, A characterization of dimension free concentration in terms of transportation inequalities, Annals of Probability 37 (2009), 2480–2498, doi:10.1214/09-AOP470.
H. Djellout, A. Guillin, and L. Wu, Transportation cost-information inequalities and applications to random dynamical systems and diffusions, Annals of Probability 32 (2004), 2702–2732, doi:10.1214/009117904000000531.
Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment I: With Endogenous Uniform Quality, an Encroaching Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer Always LosesResearch Paper
Motivation
Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers through their own stores and websites, alongside the independent retailers that carry their products. This practice is called supply chain encroachment. Retailers routinely resent it, and examples range from beer brewers to personal computers. Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that, when product quality is fixed, encroachment can benefit the retailer too: the manufacturer lowers the wholesale price to keep the retailer channel competitive, and this wholesale price effect can outweigh the lost sales.
Ha, Long and Nasiry (Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) ask what changes when the manufacturer also chooses product quality. Their first result, formalized in this mission, is that the win–win outcome disappears: with endogenous quality and a single product sold in both channels, encroachment always helps the manufacturer and always hurts the retailer.
Setting
Consumers have a quality sensitivity θ uniformly distributed on [0,1], and a consumer who buys a product of quality u>0 at price p obtains surplus θu−p. When one product of quality u is sold in total quantity q, the market-clearing price is p=u(1−q). The manufacturer's unit production cost for quality u is ku2, with k>0 the cost of quality. Selling one unit through her own direct channel costs her an additional c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 0.
Benchmark (no direct channel). The manufacturer chooses a wholesale price w and a quality u; after observing them the retailer orders qR≥0. The profits are
ΠRN=(u(1−qR)−w)qR,ΠMN=(w−ku2)qR.
Encroachment with uniform quality. The game has three stages and perfect information:
the manufacturer chooses w and u;
the retailer, having observed them, orders qR≥0;
the manufacturer, having observed qR, sells qM≥0 directly.
Both channels sell the same product at the price u(1−qR−qM), so
The solution concept is subgame perfect equilibrium: at every decision node, on or off the equilibrium path, the mover's rule picks a feasible action that no feasible alternative beats. The manufacturer encroaches when qMU>0 on the equilibrium path.
In the Lean development these are the structures Outcome and Profile, the payoffs retailerPayoff and mfrPayoff k c, and the predicate IsSPE k c σ of the definition QualityEncroach.Uniform.Game, with the benchmark counterparts BenchProfile and IsBenchSPE k τ.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 1(iii)
In the benchmark, every equilibrium has uN=3k1 and profits ΠMN=54k1, ΠRN=108k1. The goal states that, for every k>0, c≥0 and every subgame perfect equilibrium of the encroachment game in which the manufacturer encroaches,
ΠMU>54k1=ΠMNandΠRU<108k1=ΠRN.
The statement fixes no threshold value, and it holds for every equilibrium.
Milestones
The milestones follow the paper's backward induction:
the benchmark subgame, equations (1)–(2), and the benchmark equilibrium (§3.2);
the manufacturer's stage-3 best response qMU(qR,w,u)=(21−2qR−2uc−2ku)+;
the quantity subgame (3) and the optimal wholesale price and profits (4)–(5) for a given quality;
the three-case optimal profit ΠM(u) of the Appendix, covering three regimes: the manufacturer sells directly, the retailer deters direct sales exactly, or the direct channel is idle;
Proposition 1(i): there is a threshold c~>0 such that
c<c~⇒qMU>0,c>c~⇒qMU=0.
Further statements
The mission also contains:
condition (6) for a fixed quality, together with the identity wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6;
Proposition 1(ii): the equilibrium quality first rises and then falls in c, and it is distorted upward exactly below a threshold cu;
Corollary 1: c~ is decreasing in k, and for c>0 the retailer's profit under encroachment is increasing in k;
existence of a subgame perfect equilibrium.
Significance
The result separates two regimes that look alike. With quality fixed, a retailer facing an encroaching manufacturer is better off exactly when condition (6) holds. With quality chosen by the manufacturer, that region disappears. The manufacturer distorts quality, upward when c is small and downward when it is large, and so relies less on the wholesale price to steer the retailer's order. The retailer then loses in every equilibrium in which encroachment occurs. The paper's later sections (quality differentiation, a fixed cost of quality, no quality commitment, a general cost function) all measure against this base case.
The result is proved on paper, by backward induction with closed-form profits, an envelope-theorem convexity argument in c, and a numerically located threshold c~≈0.1019/k. None of it is formalized. A machine-checked proof would certify:
the closed-form reduced profits;
the case analysis of the Appendix, whose boundaries are given by roots of polynomial equations in u;
the claim, stated in the paper only for the reduced problem, that it holds for every subgame perfect equilibrium of the game.
Difficulty
Each step of the backward induction is a one-variable concave problem, but the steps do not compose into a single smooth problem. The retailer's best order depends on whether his order leaves room for direct sales. As a result the manufacturer's profit given u is the piecewise function ΠM(u). Its middle piece describes a retailer who orders exactly enough to keep the manufacturer out, and that piece is not a stationary point of anything. The global optimum over u switches between the first piece and the other two at a threshold c~ that the paper locates only numerically.
The goal compares the optimum of this piecewise problem with a constant, for every equilibrium. The natural first idea, comparing the reduced profits with the benchmark ones pointwise in u, does not work for the retailer: for a fixed quality his encroachment profit 2c2/(9u) exceeds the benchmark profit u(1−ku)2/16 on part of the range, which is exactly condition (6). The comparison has to use the quality the manufacturer actually chooses, and that quality is known only through the case analysis above.
Formalization scope
All quantities are real numbers. The following conventions are fixed:
the wholesale price ranges over all of R, since the paper states no sign restriction;
qualities are u>0 and quantities qR,qM≥0;
the inverse demand u(1−qR−qM) is used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper.
Subgame perfection is written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, which in this three-stage game with perfect information is subgame perfection. It constrains the retailer's rule at every (w,u) and the manufacturer's stage-3 rule at every (w,u,qR), not only on the path.
The benchmark profits in the goal are the paper's constants 1/(54k) and 1/(108k). The milestone benchmark_equilibrium proves that a benchmark equilibrium exists and that these are its profits.
Two formalizations would trivialize the goal, and both are ruled out:
stating the goal about the reduced form ΠMU at a maximizer of ΠM(u) instead of about the game would assume the backward induction;
dropping the off-path optimality conditions would let the goal range over non-equilibria.
The encroachment threshold of Proposition 1(i) is stated in both directions, with c~>0 chosen before c. The boundary point c=c~ is left open, because the paper's statements disagree there.
The closed forms qRN, wN, ΠMN, ΠRN, qMU, qRU, wU, ΠMU, ΠRU, ΠMUZ and ΠM are definitions that cite their page. Every statement that uses one with u in a denominator assumes u>0.
A complete development needs:
concave quadratic maximization;
a piecewise-concave best-response lemma;
the envelope argument of the Appendix, or a direct polynomial comparison;
some way to certify the numerically located thresholds, for which interval arithmetic or explicit polynomial sign certificates are both acceptable.
The game definitions are reusable for the other missions of this series, which keep this cost structure. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal that bypass the threshold computation.
A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5): 651–659, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 1: When the Hamiltonian's Maximizer Sets Are Convex, the Mean Field Game in Weak Formulation Has a SolutionResearch Paper
Motivation
Mean field games (MFGs) describe Nash equilibria of stochastic differential games with a very large number of symmetric players, each of whom interacts with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states (and, in this paper, of their controls). They were introduced independently by Lasry and Lions and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines around 2006, and are used for models of systemic risk, price impact in optimal execution, flocking and crowd motion, and large-population economics. The basic mathematical question is existence of an equilibrium: a flow of measures that is reproduced by the optimal behaviour of a representative player who takes that flow as given.
Two families of methods dominate the literature. The analytic approach of Lasry and Lions solves a coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman / Fokker–Planck system. The probabilistic approach of Carmona and Delarue (arXiv:1210.5780) solves a forward–backward SDE of McKean–Vlasov type in the strong formulation, on a fixed probability space with the controlled state as a strong solution. Both require the coefficients to be regular (Lipschitz or continuous) in the state variable. Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2015) introduce a weak formulation, in which controls act through a Girsanov change of measure on a fixed driftless state process. This lets the drift, running reward and terminal reward be merely measurable and path-dependent in the state. The interaction can enter through the law of the state path and through the law of the control. This mission formalizes their existence theorem.
Setting
Fix a dimension d, a horizon T>0 and the path space C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm. A measurable ψ:C→[1,∞) fixes the admissible population laws, Pψ(C)={μ:∫ψdμ<∞}. The topologyτψ(C) is the weakest one making μ↦∫fdμ continuous for every measurable f with ∣f∣≤cψ. A compact convex control setA sits in a normed space, and P(A) carries the weak topology.
A probability space carries an initial state ξ and an independent Brownian motion W, with filtration F generated by (ξ,W). Admissible controlsA are the progressively measurable A-valued processes. The driftless stateX solves dXt=σ(t,X)dWt, X0=ξ, and its law is X=P∘X−1. For a population law μ and a control α, the measure Pμ,α has density E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt)dWt)T with respect to P. Under Pμ,α, X is a weak solution of dXt=b(t,X,μ,αt)dt+σ(t,X)dWtμ,α. Given also a measurable flow q:[0,T]→P(A) of control laws, the reward is
a separated running reward f=f1(t,x,μ,a)+f2(t,x,μ,q).
The Hamiltonian is h=f+z⋅σ−1b. Its maximum over A is H, and the set of maximizers is A(t,x,μ,z).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3.5
Assume (S), (E) (for each (t,x), the maps b, f, g are sequentially continuous in the measure and control arguments, on the laws μ∼X with τψ) and (C) (each A(t,x,μ,z) is convex). Then there exist μ∈Pψ(C), a measurable q:[0,T]→P(A) and α∈A with
Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α),Pμ,α∘X−1=μ,Pμ,α∘αt−1=qt for a.e. t.
This is Definition 3.4 of a solution of the MFG. No constants or rates appear; the goal asserts existence only.
Milestones
The milestones are the statements the paper's proof (§7) names, in attack order:
the BSDE characterization of optimal controls, (7.1)–(7.4) and Remark 7.2;
Lemma 7.6 (densities of image measures);
Lemma 7.7 (uniform moment bounds on Girsanov densities);
Proposition 7.8 (compactness and metrizability of the set Q of candidate laws);
Berge's maximum theorem (Theorem 7.5);
Lemma 7.9 (continuity of the Hamiltonian on Q);
Lemma 7.10 (stability of the BSDE adjoint process);
Lemma 7.11 (upper hemicontinuity of the optimal-control correspondence);
the set-valued fixed point theorem, Proposition 7.4.
Significance
The theorem yields equilibria for interactions that are discontinuous in the state and nonlocal in time. Examples are rank-based rewards, path-dependent payoffs, and dependence on the law of the controls ("extended" MFGs, needed for price impact models). Strong-formulation methods do not cover these. It is also the input to the companion results: uniqueness under Lasry–Lions monotonicity (Theorem 3.8) and the construction of approximate Nash equilibria for the n-player game (Theorem 4.2), formalized as missions 2 and 3 of this series.
The result is proved in the paper. What this mission adds is a machine-checked development of the weak formulation:
Girsanov densities with uniform moment bounds;
the topology τψ and the compactness of Q;
BSDE comparison for control problems;
upper hemicontinuity of argmax correspondences;
a Kakutani-type fixed point theorem in locally convex spaces.
None of these is in Mathlib, and no mean field game existence theorem in the weak formulation has been formalized. Formalization also checks the proof. The fixed point theorem as printed (Proposition 7.4, with closed rather than compact values) is false, and the milestone states the corrected version. Connecting it to Lemma 7.11, whose values are closed but not compact in the norm E∫0T∥αt∥dt, is part of the work.
Difficulty
The fixed point is set-valued. Without uniqueness of maximizers, the best response to (μ,ν) is a set of controls. Kakutani's theorem in finite dimensions does not apply: the laws live in Pψ(C), which with τψ is neither metrizable nor separable.
The obvious argument would apply Schauder's theorem to μ↦Pα^∘X−1 for a measurable selection α^ of the maximizers. It fails twice. A selection need not depend continuously on μ. And the adjoint process Zμ,ν, which enters the maximizer, depends on (μ,ν) only through a BSDE, with no pointwise regularity.
Compactness has to come from somewhere other than the coefficients. All laws of the form Pμ,α∘X−1 lie in a set Q of laws with bounded densities relative to X. Turning that into compactness for τψ needs the ψ2-moment of X to upgrade τ1-convergence to τψ-convergence. Continuity in the control law goes through the stable topology on measures over [0,T]×P(A).
Formalization scope
The Lean development (namespace WeakMFG.Existence) builds on the published Brownian/Itô/BSDE layer Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic. It commits to these conventions:
Base space. It is an arbitrary probability space carrying (ξ,W), with the filtration of (ξ,W) augmented by null sets. The canonical space Rd×C is one instance, and every object of the theorem is a law.
State equation. It is read through the L² Itô integral, so solutions are square integrable. "σ>0" is nonsingularity, and the growth function ρ is monotone.
Types.Rd is Fin d → ℝ, time is ℝ≥0, and paths are continuous maps on [0,T].
Topologies.Pψ(C) is its own type carrying τψ. P(A) has the weak topology and its Borel σ-field.
Densities. Girsanov densities and BSDE solutions are relations. The solution concept asks that a density version exists and that the identities hold for all versions.
Optimality.Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α) is stated as optimality of α against every admissible control; no real supremum is formed.
Assumption (E) is sequential continuity, as printed.
Assumption (C) is required wherever σ(t,x) is nonsingular.
Control set.A is assumed nonempty.
Some formalizations would be trivial and are ruled out. Every clause of Definition 3.4 is stated. No density version may be missing. Optimality is over the whole admissible class, not a subclass. Replacing the goal by a fixed-point statement about the map Φ is not acceptable, since that is a step of the proof.
Milestone conventions:
Milestone (7.4). It adds joint measurability of f in the control-law argument. The page presupposes it when it integrates f against νt(dq).
Berge's theorem. It assumes a nonempty K.
Proposition 7.4. It assumes nonempty compact values (see Significance).
Infrastructure that is reusable beyond this mission:
Doléans exponentials of bounded integrands and their Lq bounds;
weak compactness in L1 (Dunford–Pettis) for density sets;
the stable topology;
Cellina's approximate selection theorem;
Schauder–Tychonoff fixed points in locally convex spaces.
Contributions to any of these, and alternative proofs that avoid the non-compact-valued fixed point step, are welcome.
Selected references
R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015; arXiv:1307.1152v2 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1210.5780
M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5