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Algorithmic Game Theory

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CombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness III: With Additive Valuations, Donating the Pool to an Unenvied Agent Yields a 4/7-Groupwise-Maximin-Share AllocationResearch Paper

Motivation

When indivisible goods are shared among people, comparing each person's bundle with another person's bundle is only one way to judge fairness. A second test asks whether a group could repartition the goods it collectively received so that one of its members would reliably obtain more. Groupwise maximin share (GMMS) makes this test for every subgroup. It strengthens the ordinary maximin-share benchmark, which tests only the grand coalition and all goods. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa use this distinction to study a complete allocation obtained from their almost envy-free allocation: goods initially left unassigned are given to one unenvied agent. Their Theorem 16 proves that the resulting allocation gives every agent at least four sevenths of her groupwise maximin share under additive valuations. Chaudhury et al., pp. 4–5, 15–16.

The paper first constructs a partial EFX allocation whose unallocated goods have bounded value to every agent. Its Section 3 then assumes additive valuations and derives maximin-share and GMMS guarantees. This mission addresses the GMMS consequence of that construction. The existence of the starting allocation is the subject of the first mission in this series; the present theorem specifies what happens when its pool is donated. Chaudhury et al., Theorems 8 and 16.

Setting

Let NNN be a finite set of agents and MMM a finite set of indivisible goods. Each agent iii has a valuation vi(S)v_i(S)vi​(S) for a bundle S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M. Here valuations are nonnegative and additive: vi(S)v_i(S)vi​(S) is the sum of the values of the individual goods in SSS. A partial allocation X=(Xi)i∈NX=(X_i)_{i\in N}X=(Xi​)i∈N​ gives pairwise disjoint bundles to the agents. The remaining goods form its pool, P=M∖⋃i∈NXiP=M\setminus\bigcup_{i\in N}X_iP=M∖⋃i∈N​Xi​. An allocation is complete when its pool is empty. These are the paper's allocation conventions. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3–4.

An allocation is envy-free up to any good (EFX) if, after any single good ggg is removed from agent jjj's bundle, agent iii values that remainder no more than her own bundle: vi(Xj∖{g})≤vi(Xi)v_i(X_j\setminus\{g\})\le v_i(X_i)vi​(Xj​∖{g})≤vi​(Xi​) for all i,ji,ji,j and g∈Xjg\in X_jg∈Xj​. The envy graph has a directed edge i→ji\to ji→j when iii values jjj's bundle more than her own. A source is a vertex with no incoming edge, so nobody envies that agent. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3, 8.

For a set SSS and a positive number kkk of parts, MMS⁡i(k,S)\operatorname{MMS}_i(k,S)MMSi​(k,S) is the largest worst-part value agent iii can secure by partitioning SSS into kkk bundles. A complete allocation YYY is α\alphaα-GMMS when each agent meets an α\alphaα fraction of this benchmark for every subgroup containing her:

vi(Yi)≥αMMS⁡i ⁣(∣N′∣,⋃j∈N′Yj)(N′⊆N, i∈N′).v_i(Y_i)\ge\alpha\operatorname{MMS}_i\!\left(|N'|,\bigcup_{j\in N'}Y_j\right) \qquad(N'\subseteq N,\ i\in N').vi​(Yi​)≥αMMSi​​∣N′∣,j∈N′⋃​Yj​​(N′⊆N, i∈N′).

The benchmark uses only goods allocated to that subgroup. The paper states it both as a complete-allocation property in its introduction and in Definition 15. Chaudhury et al., pp. 5, 15.

Formalization targets

The donated allocation

Assume XXX is partial and EFX, every agent satisfies vi(P)≤vi(Xi)v_i(P)\le v_i(X_i)vi​(P)≤vi​(Xi​), and sss is a source of its envy graph. Define Ys=Xs∪PY_s=X_s\cup PYs​=Xs​∪P and Yj=XjY_j=X_jYj​=Xj​ for j≠sj\ne sj=s. The goal states that YYY is complete, that donation does not lower any agent's own value, and that

vi(Yi)≥47MMS⁡i ⁣(∣N′∣,⋃j∈N′Yj)(N′⊆N, i∈N′).v_i(Y_i)\ge\frac47\operatorname{MMS}_i\!\left(|N'|,\bigcup_{j\in N'}Y_j\right) \qquad(N'\subseteq N,\ i\in N').vi​(Yi​)≥74​MMSi​​∣N′∣,j∈N′⋃​Yj​​(N′⊆N, i∈N′).

This is the GMMS bullet of Theorem 16 applied to the particular allocation the authors define immediately before it. The paper obtains a suitable XXX from Lemma 12, which has the relevant properties of Theorem 8. Chaudhury et al., pp. 11–12, 14–16.

Intermediate results

The milestones are Proposition 13, the reduction step in Theorem 16's proof, and all three parts of Lemma 17. Proposition 13 compares maximin shares after deleting agents and at most as many goods. Lemma 17 bounds the value of each bad good, the donated bundle, and the other good bundles. They retain the constants 222 and 3/23/23/2 used in the paper. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14, 16–17.

Significance

The result turns an almost envy-free partial allocation into a complete allocation with a guarantee for every coalition. A plain maximin-share statement would only compare each agent with a partition of all goods among all agents; here every subgroup and its allocated goods count. The distinction matters even when an ordinary maximin-share bound is easy to meet because there are fewer goods than agents. Chaudhury et al., p. 5.

The paper proves Theorem 16 mathematically. The remaining work for this mission is a machine-checked proof of its stated GMMS consequence and its supporting results. Its definitions of partial allocation, pool, finite maximin share and groupwise guarantee can also serve later formalizations of fair division. The Nash-social-welfare half-guarantee in the printed theorem depends on the starting allocation from Lemma 12; this mission records only the value preservation under donation. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14, 16.

Difficulty

Giving all leftover goods to one agent makes the allocation complete, but it can change how another agent values that enlarged bundle and how a subgroup's benchmark is calculated. EFX alone compares bundles after deleting one good; GMMS compares an agent with every repartition of a subgroup's goods. The difficulty is to control those repartitions while keeping the exact 4/74/74/7 constant. Merely applying an ordinary maximin-share bound to the grand coalition does not establish the required subgroup inequalities. Chaudhury et al., pp. 15–17.

Formalization scope

Agents and goods are represented by Fin n and Fin m; Lean numbers agents from zero, and the paper's “agent 1” is an explicit source sss. Bundles are finite sets. Valuations are real-valued but include nonnegativity alongside additivity, representing the paper's codomain R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​. The pool is computed from XXX, and the donated allocation is a function of XXX and sss. No independent pool or arbitrary completed allocation is allowed. Completeness is a conclusion. The maximin share is a finite maximum of finite minima over labelled partitions, which may have empty parts. Every use has a positive part count; in the GMMS definition this follows from i∈N′i\in N'i∈N′. Cardinality is converted to real numbers before fractions are formed. These choices exclude zero-part maximin shares and integer division. Chaudhury et al., pp. 3–5, 15–16.

The theorem is conditional on the EFX and pool-value properties of the source allocation, rather than repeating its existence proof. It states the conclusion for every such allocation and every source. The paper's half-optimal-Nash-social-welfare bullet is outside this mission because it invokes the separate black-box starting allocation of Lemma 12. Contributions toward finite-partition comparisons, EFX value bounds, and the groupwise estimate are welcome. Chaudhury et al., pp. 14–17.

Selected references

  • B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn and A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021. Formalization source: arXiv:1907.04596v3.
9 thms1 active userReviewed
CombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness II: With Additive Valuations Such an Allocation Gives Every Agent Her Maximin Share Divided by 2 − |P|/nResearch Paper

Fair division of indivisible goods

A set of nnn agents must share a set MMM of mmm indivisible goods, each agent valuing bundles of goods by her own valuation. Two fairness notions dominate the literature. Envy-freeness up to any good (EFX), introduced by Caragiannis, Kurokawa, Moulin, Procaccia, Shah and Wang (EC 2016), asks that no agent prefer another's bundle once any single good is removed from it. The maximin share (MMS), proposed by Budish (JPE 2011), asks that every agent receive at least what she could secure by splitting the goods into nnn bundles herself and taking the worst one.

Neither notion is known to be achievable in full. Whether complete EFX allocations always exist is open in general. Complete MMS allocations need not exist: Procaccia and Wang (EC 2014) gave a counterexample with three agents, and the best known approximation factors for additive valuations are 3/4−ε3/4-\varepsilon3/4−ε (Ghodsi et al., EC 2018) and 3/43/43/4 (Garg and Taki, arXiv:1903.00029). Amanatidis, Birmpas and Markakis (IJCAI 2018) showed that every complete EFX allocation is a 4/74/74/7-MMS allocation.

Caragiannis, Gravin and Huang (EC 2019) showed that EFX can be achieved if some goods are left unallocated, with no bound on how many. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa (arXiv:1907.04596, SODA 2020, SIAM J. Comput. 2021) relax completeness instead: some goods may be "donated to charity". Their Theorem 8 produces an EFX partial allocation in which nobody envies the donated set and the donated set has fewer goods than there are unenvied agents. This mission formalizes their Theorem 14: such an allocation also gives every agent a maximin-share guarantee that improves as more goods are donated.

Setting

Agents are N=[n]N=[n]N=[n] and goods are MMM, ∣M∣=m|M|=m∣M∣=m. Agent iii has a valuation vi:2M→R≥0v_i:2^M\to\mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}vi​:2M→R≥0​, assumed additive: vi(S)=∑g∈Svi({g})v_i(S)=\sum_{g\in S}v_i(\{g\})vi​(S)=∑g∈S​vi​({g}) for every S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M.

A (partial) allocation X=⟨X1,…,Xn⟩X=\langle X_1,\dots,X_n\rangleX=⟨X1​,…,Xn​⟩ gives agent iii the bundle Xi⊆MX_i\subseteq MXi​⊆M, the bundles being pairwise disjoint. The pool of unallocated goods is P=M∖⋃iXiP=M\setminus\bigcup_i X_iP=M∖⋃i​Xi​, and k=∣P∣k=|P|k=∣P∣.

  • XXX is EFX if vi(Xi)≥vi(Xj∖{g})v_i(X_i)\ge v_i(X_j\setminus\{g\})vi​(Xi​)≥vi​(Xj​∖{g}) for all agents i,ji,ji,j and every g∈Xjg\in X_jg∈Xj​.
  • The envy graph GXG_XGX​ has the agents as vertices and an edge i→ji\to ji→j exactly when vi(Xi)<vi(Xj)v_i(X_i)<v_i(X_j)vi​(Xi​)<vi​(Xj​). A source is a vertex of indegree zero: an agent nobody envies.
  • The maximin share of agent iii over k′≥1k'\ge1k′≥1 bundles of a set SSS of goods is
MMSi(k′,S)=max⁡(S1,…,Sk′) min⁡1≤j≤k′vi(Sj),\mathrm{MMS}_i(k',S)=\max_{(S_1,\dots,S_{k'})}\ \min_{1\le j\le k'} v_i(S_j),MMSi​(k′,S)=(S1​,…,Sk′​)max​ 1≤j≤k′min​vi​(Sj​),

the maximum over partitions of SSS into k′k'k′ possibly empty bundles. Agent iii's maximin share in the instance is MMSi(n,M)\mathrm{MMS}_i(n,M)MMSi​(n,M).

The three conditions of Theorem 8 on (X,P)(X,P)(X,P) are:

  1. XXX is EFX;
  2. vi(Xi)≥vi(P)v_i(X_i)\ge v_i(P)vi​(Xi​)≥vi​(P) for every agent iii;
  3. ∣P∣|P|∣P∣ is less than the number of sources of GXG_XGX​; in particular ∣P∣<n|P|<n∣P∣<n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 14 (MMS bullet)

For every allocation XXX with pool PPP satisfying conditions 1–3, and every agent iii,

vi(Xi) ≥ MMSi(n,M)2−kn,k=∣P∣.v_i(X_i)\ \ge\ \frac{\mathrm{MMS}_i(n,M)}{2-\frac{k}{n}},\qquad k=|P|.vi​(Xi​) ≥ 2−nk​MMSi​(n,M)​,k=∣P∣.

The factor ranges from 12\tfrac1221​ when P=∅P=\emptysetP=∅ to (1+1n)−1(1+\tfrac1n)^{-1}(1+n1​)−1 when ∣P∣=n−1|P|=n-1∣P∣=n−1.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 13 (quoted by the paper from Garg, McGlaughlin and Taki, SOSA 2019): for N′⊆NN'\subseteq NN′⊆N and M′⊆MM'\subseteq MM′⊆M with ∣N∖N′∣≥∣M∖M′∣|N\setminus N'|\ge|M\setminus M'|∣N∖N′∣≥∣M∖M′∣ and i∈N′i\in N'i∈N′,
MMSi(∣N′∣,M′) ≥ MMSi(∣N∣,M).\mathrm{MMS}_i(|N'|,M')\ \ge\ \mathrm{MMS}_i(|N|,M).MMSi​(∣N′∣,M′) ≥ MMSi​(∣N∣,M).
  1. MMS is at most the proportional share: MMSi(k′,S)≤vi(S)/k′\mathrm{MMS}_i(k',S)\le v_i(S)/k'MMSi​(k′,S)≤vi​(S)/k′ for additive valuations and k′≥1k'\ge1k′≥1.
  2. The EFX half-bound: if XXX is EFX and ∣Xj∣≥2|X_j|\ge2∣Xj​∣≥2, then vi(Xi)≥(1−1/∣Xj∣) vi(Xj)≥12vi(Xj)v_i(X_i)\ge(1-1/|X_j|)\,v_i(X_j)\ge\tfrac12 v_i(X_j)vi​(Xi​)≥(1−1/∣Xj​∣)vi​(Xj​)≥21​vi​(Xj​).
  3. The counting step (summing inequalities (1)–(3) of the proof): with N′N'N′ the sources of GXG_XGX​, agent iii and all agents holding at least two goods, n′=∣N′∣n'=|N'|n′=∣N′∣ and M′=⋃j∈N′XjM'=\bigcup_{j\in N'}X_jM′=⋃j∈N′​Xj​,
(2n′−k) vi(Xi) ≥ vi(M′∪P).(2n'-k)\,v_i(X_i)\ \ge\ v_i(M'\cup P).(2n′−k)vi​(Xi​) ≥ vi​(M′∪P).

Significance

Theorem 14 shows that leaving goods unallocated is not merely a cost: under conditions 1–3, each donated good buys a quantitative improvement of every agent's maximin-share guarantee, interpolating between the factor 12\tfrac1221​ the bound gives when the pool is empty and a factor tending to 111 when nearly nnn goods are donated. Together with Theorem 8 it shows that a single allocation can be simultaneously EFX, envy-free towards the charity, small in its charity, and approximately MMS. The same reduction (Proposition 13 applied to a carefully chosen sub-instance) is the template for the paper's 4/74/74/7-groupwise-maximin-share result, Theorem 16, formalized in mission III of this series.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it, of Proposition 13, or of the existence of EFX allocations with bounded charity is known to exist. The mission produces a formal maximin-share definition on arbitrary subsets of goods with an arbitrary number of bundles, a formal proof of the monotonicity of the maximin share under removal of agents and goods (Proposition 13, which the paper quotes without proof), and the guarantee itself. Combined with mission I of this series (Theorem 8), it yields the printed existence statement.

Difficulty

The guarantee compares an agent's own bundle with a benchmark defined over all partitions of all goods, while EFX and the source condition speak only about the allocation at hand. The obvious attempt, summing vi(Xi)≥12vi(Xj)v_i(X_i)\ge\tfrac12 v_i(X_j)vi​(Xi​)≥21​vi​(Xj​) over all agents and adding the pool, gives only a factor near 12\tfrac1221​ and ignores the pool's size. Agents holding a single good are the obstruction: EFX gives no bound on the value of their bundles relative to vi(Xi)v_i(X_i)vi​(Xi​), and the benchmark MMSi(n,M)\mathrm{MMS}_i(n,M)MMSi​(n,M) is defined on the full instance, which contains them. Proposition 13, the comparison of maximin shares across instances, is a combinatorial statement about all partitions of the original instance and requires nonnegativity of the valuations: with a good of negative value it fails.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n (0-based) and goods Fin m; the set MMM is the whole of Fin m. Valuations are functions Fin n → Finset (Fin m) → ℝ; additivity is the sum formula together with nonnegativity, which is the paper's codomain R≥0\mathbb{R}_{\ge0}R≥0​. An allocation is a family of pairwise disjoint finsets and the pool is always computed as the complement of their union, never taken as a free parameter. Sources are agents of indegree zero in the envy graph (nobody envies them), not agents who envy nobody. The maximin share MMS(k′,S)\mathrm{MMS}(k',S)MMS(k′,S) is a supremum over labellings Fin m → Fin k' restricted to SSS of the minimum bundle value; it is used only with k′≥1k'\ge1k′≥1, which every statement has in its hypotheses or derives from them (in the goal, condition 3 forces n≥1n\ge1n≥1). Every cardinality is cast to R\mathbb{R}R before division or subtraction, and 2−k/n>12-k/n>12−k/n>1 under condition 3, so no division by zero occurs.

The goal is posed as an implication for every allocation satisfying conditions 1–3, rather than as the paper's "there exists an allocation"; the paper's proof of the MMS bullet uses only those three conditions, and existence is Theorem 8. The Nash-social-welfare bullet of Theorem 14 is not posed: it depends on Lemma 12, which takes the allocation of an earlier paper as a black box. The goal cannot be trivialized by a free pool, by overlapping bundles, by zero agents (condition 3 excludes them), by a junk maximin share over zero bundles, or by natural-number division; the statement keeps all three conditions, each of which is needed.

Contributions welcome: a library-quality maximin-share API for additive valuations (attainment of the maximum, monotonicity, the proportional bound), which is reusable for other MMS results; proofs of the milestones; and the final assembly.

Selected references

  • B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn, A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, SIAM J. Comput. 50(4), 2021; cited from arXiv:1907.04596v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.04596
  • E. Budish, The Combinatorial Assignment Problem: Approximate Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes, J. Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
  • I. Caragiannis, D. Kurokawa, H. Moulin, A. D. Procaccia, N. Shah, J. Wang, The Unreasonable Fairness of Maximum Nash Welfare, EC 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2940716.2940726
  • A. D. Procaccia, J. Wang, Fair Enough: Guaranteeing Approximate Maximin Shares, EC 2014. https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602835
  • M. Ghodsi, M. HajiAghayi, M. Seddighin, S. Seddighin, H. Yami, Fair Allocation of Indivisible Goods: Improvements and Generalizations, EC 2018. https://doi.org/10.1145/3219166.3219238
  • J. Garg, S. Taki, An Improved Approximation Algorithm for Maximin Shares, CoRR abs/1903.00029, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.00029
  • J. Garg, P. McGlaughlin, S. Taki, Approximating Maximin Share Allocations, SOSA 2019. https://doi.org/10.4230/OASIcs.SOSA.2019.20
  • I. Caragiannis, N. Gravin, X. Huang, Envy-Freeness up to Any Item with High Nash Welfare: The Virtue of Donating Items, EC 2019. https://doi.org/10.1145/3328526.3329574
  • G. Amanatidis, G. Birmpas, E. Markakis, Comparing Approximate Relaxations of Envy-Freeness, IJCAI 2018. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2018/7
6 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing III: Variational Solutions Are the Nash Equilibria of the Extended Cloudlet-Pricing GameResearch Paper

Why a cloudlet price matters

Mobile devices can divide work between local execution, a nearby shared cloudlet, and a remote cloud. A cloudlet has limited capacity, so one user's choice changes the delay faced by the others. Cardellini and coauthors model this as a generalized Nash equilibrium problem, in which each user's feasible choices depend on the aggregate cloudlet load. The shared utilization cap makes a direct distributed solution awkward: a user must know how much capacity all other users consume before choosing a feasible deviation. The paper therefore introduces an additional player who sets a cloudlet price. This mission formalizes the relationship between the original coupled game and that extended, ordinary Nash game Cardellini et al., accepted manuscript, pp. 10–16.

The offloading game

There are NNN users and nnn cloudlet servers. User uuu chooses fractions xu,mx_{u,m}xu,m​, xu,cletx_{u,\mathrm{clet}}xu,clet​, and xu,cloudx_{u,\mathrm{cloud}}xu,cloud​ for local, cloudlet, and remote-cloud execution. These fractions are nonnegative and sum to one. At most a fraction χ\chiχ can be offloaded, and a user-specific linear power constraint applies. The set K~u\widetilde K_uKu​ contains these private feasible choices. The cloudlet load and the shared feasible set are

L(x)=1n∑u=1Nδuxu,clet,Ω={x:L(x)≤Umax⁡},K=(∏u=1NK~u)∩Ω.L(x)=\frac1n\sum_{u=1}^{N}\delta_u x_{u,\mathrm{clet}},\qquad \Omega=\{x:L(x)\le U_{\max}\},\qquad K=\left(\prod_{u=1}^{N}\widetilde K_u\right)\cap\Omega.L(x)=n1​u=1∑N​δu​xu,clet​,Ω={x:L(x)≤Umax​},K=(u=1∏N​Ku​)∩Ω.

Each user's cost λuRu\lambda_u R_uλu​Ru​ is the response-time expression on p. 10, with coefficients αu,βu,γu,δu\alpha_u,\beta_u,\gamma_u,\delta_uαu​,βu​,γu​,δu​. The VI map FFF is the stack of the user's partial gradients, written in closed form on p. 11. A variational solution xˉ\bar xxˉ belongs to KKK and satisfies ⟨F(xˉ),x−xˉ⟩≥0\langle F(\bar x),x-\bar x\rangle\ge0⟨F(xˉ),x−xˉ⟩≥0 for every x∈Kx\in Kx∈K. The pairing sums all three coordinates for each user. Section 5 assumes 0<Umax⁡<10<U_{\max}<10<Umax​<1 and 0<αu,δu<10<\alpha_u,\delta_u<10<αu​,δu​<1 for every user; the model also has n>0n>0n>0 and 0<χ≤10<\chi\le10<χ≤1 Cardellini et al., pp. 7, 9–11.

The extended game replaces the joint cap in each user's feasible set by a price. User uuu minimizes λuRu(x)+ρ(δu/n)xu,clet\lambda_uR_u(x)+\rho(\delta_u/n)x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}λu​Ru​(x)+ρ(δu​/n)xu,clet​ over K~u\widetilde K_uKu​. A cloudlet manager chooses ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0 to maximize ρ(L(x)−Umax⁡)\rho(L(x)-U_{\max})ρ(L(x)−Umax​). The manager's choice is part of the Nash equilibrium condition, not a preimposed complementary-slackness equation. The extended game's VI set is Ke=(∏uK~u)×R+K_e=(\prod_u\widetilde K_u)\times\mathbb R_+Ke​=(∏u​Ku​)×R+​ and its map is Fe(x,ρ)=(F(x)+price⁡(ρ),Umax⁡−L(x))F_e(x,\rho)=(F(x)+\operatorname{price}(\rho),U_{\max}-L(x))Fe​(x,ρ)=(F(x)+price(ρ),Umax​−L(x)) Cardellini et al., p. 15.

Formalization targets

The goal is the two-part assertion of Theorem 2. Under the standing assumptions and a strict load bound on the full product of private feasible sets, its equilibrium characterization is

xˉ∈SOL⁡(K,F)⟺∃ρˉ,  (xˉ,ρˉ)∈NE⁡ext.\bar x\in\operatorname{SOL}(K,F) \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \exists\bar\rho,\; (\bar x,\bar\rho)\in\operatorname{NE}_{\mathrm{ext}}.xˉ∈SOL(K,F)⟺∃ρˉ​,(xˉ,ρˉ​)∈NEext​.

The same goal states that monotonicity of FFF on ∏uK~u\prod_u\widetilde K_u∏u​Ku​ implies monotonicity of FeF_eFe​ on KeK_eKe​. The three milestones follow the paper's path: the extended Nash game is equivalent to its VI; the shared affine constraint has a scalar multiplier at a VI solution; and the price-load coupling cancels in the monotonicity pairing. The source states the first as a classical result and gives the last two in its proof Cardellini et al., pp. 15–16.

What the result provides

The characterization lets a variational solution of a game with coupled feasible sets be found as an equilibrium of a game whose NNN users have separate feasible sets. The additional scalar has a concrete interpretation: it is the multiplier of the shared cloudlet-utilization cap. The monotonicity assertion connects the paper's analysis of the original VI to methods for the extended one. The paper uses this relationship as the entry point for its distributed algorithms in the next section Cardellini et al., pp. 16–17.

The result is proved in the paper but is not yet machine checked in this mission. A complete development would give reusable Lean interfaces for a finite-dimensional VI on an intersection of a product polytope and one affine half-space, a multiplier characterization for that intersection, and an equilibrium-to-VI conversion for separable player constraints. Those components could support other capacity-sharing games. The theorem drafts remain proof obligations; the definitions compile locally.

Where the proof is delicate

A Nash equilibrium requires each user to be optimal against every privately feasible deviation, including deviations that violate the original shared cap. Consequently, the user's cloudlet cost must remain well defined throughout K~u\widetilde K_uKu​ for the equivalence to hold. A load bound only on KKK does not cover those deviations. The multiplier comparison must also account for the manager's maximization condition and the sign of the load term in FeF_eFe​. For monotonicity, FeF_eFe​ evaluates FFF on the whole product ∏uK~u\prod_u\widetilde K_u∏u​Ku​, a larger domain than KKK. These domain distinctions explain why the statement needs two explicit repairs to the printed theorem Cardellini et al., pp. 15–16.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the users as Fin N and the three processing locations as a finite tier type. Indices therefore start at zero. The costs, the map FFF, the private sets, Ω\OmegaΩ, and KKK are separate definitions. The Euclidean pairing is written as a finite sum; no Pi-type sup norm is used. The extended Nash predicate quantifies over user deviations in K~u\widetilde K_uKu​ and over every nonnegative manager price. The VI predicates are in their own module so the game is not built into their meaning. The theorem's statement remains meaningful at N=0N=0N=0; no positive-user hypothesis is added to Section 5's assumptions.

The first repair requires L(x)<1L(x)<1L(x)<1 at every x∈∏uK~ux\in\prod_u\widetilde K_ux∈∏u​Ku​. The paper's Theorem 1 condition (18) implies this bound, but is stronger than needed. Without the bound, a private deviation can cross the pole of δuxu,clet/(1−L(x))\delta_u x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}/(1-L(x))δu​xu,clet​/(1−L(x)); Lean's total division then assigns a value at a zero denominator even though the paper's cost has none. In a two-user instance with n=1n=1n=1, δu=0.9\delta_u=0.9δu​=0.9 and Umax⁡=0.5U_{\max}=0.5Umax​=0.5, the pole can lie within one user's private feasible interval. The second repair reads “the original game is monotone” on ∏uK~u\prod_u\widetilde K_u∏u​Ku​, because that is precisely the xxx-domain of KeK_eKe​. Monotonicity on KKK alone is insufficient. Both repairs are disclosed in the item notes, and the source wording remains visible in the milestone quotations.

An empty KKK would make a solution statement vacuous; the formal development should retain concrete feasible parameter instances. The map FFF is the paper's displayed formula, rather than a derivative chosen to make a milestone tautological. The VI uses all user coordinates, and the extended game does not silently reinstate the shared constraint in user deviations. Contributions toward the stated multiplier theorem, Nash-to-VI equivalence, and the cancellation identity are welcome, along with reusable finite-dimensional convex-analysis lemmas.

Selected references

  • V. Cardellini, V. De Nitto Personé, V. Di Valerio, F. Facchinei, V. Grassi, F. Lo Presti, and V. Piccialli, A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing, accepted manuscript for Mathematical Programming, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6.
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CombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness I: Under Monotone Valuations an EFX Allocation Exists Whose Unenvied Pool Has Fewer Goods Than There Are Unenvied AgentsResearch Paper

Motivation

Allocating indivisible goods fairly is difficult because a single good can change how an agent compares two bundles. Exact envy-freeness can be impossible (one good, two agents), so the field works with relaxations. Envy-freeness up to any good (EFX) requires each agent to prefer her own bundle to every other agent's bundle after any one good of that other bundle is removed. Whether EFX allocations of all goods always exist is open; the question motivates weakening the requirement that every good be assigned, and asking how little must be left over. Chaudhury, Kavitha, Mehlhorn and Sgouritsa show that leaving a small, unenvied set of goods unallocated (donated to "charity") suffices for every normalized monotone valuation profile (arXiv:1907.04596v3, Theorem 8, pp. 11–12).

Timeline (as recounted on pp. 2–3 of the source):

  • 2004: Lipton, Markakis, Mossel and Saberi introduce the envy-graph and cycle-elimination technique and compute allocations now called EF1 (DOI 10.1145/988772.988792).
  • 2016: Caragiannis, Kurokawa, Moulin, Procaccia, Shah and Wang define EFX (DOI 10.1145/2940716.2940726).
  • 2018: Plaut and Roughgarden prove EFX allocations of all goods exist for two agents, or for any number of agents with identical valuations (arXiv:1707.04769).
  • 2019: Caragiannis, Gravin and Huang introduce EFX with charity: a partial EFX allocation in which each agent gets at least half her value in a Nash-optimal allocation, with no bound on the number or value of donated goods (arXiv:1902.04319).
  • 2020: Chaudhury, Garg and Mehlhorn prove existence of complete EFX allocations for three agents with additive valuations (arXiv:2002.05119).
  • 2020/2021: the present paper bounds the charity: fewer goods than unenvied agents, and no agent envies the donated set. Its SODA 2020 version assumed gross-substitute valuations; the journal version (arXiv v3) needs only normalized monotone valuations (p. 8, §1.4).

The two bounds matter separately. The empty allocation is EFX and donates everything; a cardinality bound alone still lets the donated goods carry most of an agent's value; the value bound alone allows almost all goods to be donated. The paper's later maximin-share and groupwise-maximin-share guarantees (Theorems 14 and 16, treated in the next missions of this series) are derived from exactly the allocation produced here.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 agents, indexed by N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\ldots,n\}N={1,…,n} in the paper, and a finite set MMM of mmm indivisible goods. Agent iii has a valuation vi:2M→R≥0v_i:2^M\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}vi​:2M→R≥0​. It is normalized if vi(∅)=0v_i(\varnothing)=0vi​(∅)=0 and monotone if S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T implies vi(S)≤vi(T)v_i(S)\le v_i(T)vi​(S)≤vi​(T). No additivity, submodularity or substitutes condition is assumed. These are the general valuations of §1.1.1, p. 3, and §2 of the source.

A partial allocation X=(Xi)i∈NX=(X_i)_{i\in N}X=(Xi​)i∈N​ consists of pairwise disjoint bundles Xi⊆MX_i\subseteq MXi​⊆M. Its pool is the goods not assigned to anyone,

P(X)=M∖⋃i∈NXi.P(X)=M\setminus\bigcup_{i\in N}X_i.P(X)=M∖i∈N⋃​Xi​.

The allocation is EFX when

vi(Xj∖{g})≤vi(Xi)for all i,j∈N and every g∈Xj.v_i(X_j\setminus\{g\})\le v_i(X_i) \qquad\text{for all }i,j\in N\text{ and every }g\in X_j.vi​(Xj​∖{g})≤vi​(Xi​)for all i,j∈N and every g∈Xj​.

The paper calls allocations partial by default (p. 3, footnote 5). The envy graph GXG_XGX​ has the agents as vertices and an edge i→ji\to ji→j when vi(Xi)<vi(Xj)v_i(X_i)<v_i(X_j)vi​(Xi​)<vi​(Xj​). A source is a vertex with no incoming edge. Its reachability component C(s)C(s)C(s) includes sss itself. The social welfare of XXX is ϕ(X)=∑ivi(Xi)\phi(X)=\sum_i v_i(X_i)ϕ(X)=∑i​vi​(Xi​). These notions are introduced on pp. 8–9 of the source.

For a set SSS of goods, an envied set is one some agent values more than her own bundle. An inclusion-wise minimal envied subset ZZZ is envied, but no strict subset of ZZZ is envied by anyone. An agent who envies such a ZZZ is a most envious agent of SSS; the paper allows ties. The three update rules U0, U1 and U2 use these sets to change an allocation while maintaining EFX (Definition 3 and Algorithm 2, p. 9).

Formalization targets

The goal is the allocation guarantee of Theorem 8:

∃X partial:X is EFX,vi(P(X))≤vi(Xi) (i∈N),∣P(X)∣<∣sources⁡(GX)∣≤n.\exists X\text{ partial}:\quad X\text{ is EFX},\qquad v_i(P(X))\le v_i(X_i)\ (i\in N),\qquad |P(X)|<|\operatorname{sources}(G_X)|\le n.∃X partial:X is EFX,vi​(P(X))≤vi​(Xi​) (i∈N),∣P(X)∣<∣sources(GX​)∣≤n.

Both the stronger source-count bound and its consequence ∣P(X)∣<n|P(X)|<n∣P(X)∣<n are stated. The theorem asserts existence for every normalized, monotone valuation profile, including nonadditive profiles. It does not require the returned envy graph to be acyclic; acyclicity is an invariant used during construction, rather than an additional advertised property of the final allocation.

The attack path consists of the paper's numbered Lemmas 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Lemma 2 concerns removal of envy cycles; its Lean form keeps the page's conditional "if XXX is EFX then X′X'X′ is EFX" and the unconditional strict welfare increase. Lemma 4 records what U0 does and what its failure implies. Lemma 5 records U1's welfare and EFX guarantees. Lemma 6 supplies the finite source, good and agent data required for U2. Lemma 7 states U2's welfare and EFX guarantees. Their source wording and page locations appear in the milestone list; the Lean statements include the exact allocation updates where those lemmas rely on them.

Significance

The theorem guarantees a partial EFX allocation even for general monotone valuations, while limiting the unallocated pool more tightly than the number of agents: its size is below the number of unenvied agents. Every agent also values that entire pool no more than her own bundle. These two bounds distinguish the allocation from a merely EFX partial allocation. They provide the starting point for the paper's later statements on approximate maximin shares under additive valuations (Theorems 14 and 16).

The mathematical result is proved in the paper. The mission asks for a machine-checked proof of its allocation guarantee and of the supporting lemmas, with a reusable Lean account of finite partial allocations, the unallocated pool, envy graphs, minimal envied subsets and the update rules. Such definitions are useful for other fair-division questions involving unallocated indivisible goods.

Difficulty

EFX must hold after the allocation is changed, for every agent pair and for removal of every good from the other agent's new bundle. Simply giving a pool good to an agent may violate that condition, even though it makes the pool smaller. Conversely, replacing a bundle with an envied subset can improve welfare while returning goods to the pool. The source-count bound depends on controlling both kinds of progress. Rule U2 adds a further complication: its bundle moves follow envy paths, so an overlap between selected paths would make the new allocation ambiguous. These are the points at which the straightforward approach of distributing the remaining goods one at a time stops working.

Formalization scope

Lean represents agents by Fin n, goods by Fin m, bundles by finite sets of goods, and valuations by real-valued functions on bundles. The paper's one-based subscripts become zero-based Lean indices. Nonnegative values need no separate hypothesis: normalization and monotonicity imply them. The hypothesis n>0n>0n>0 is explicit because the paper presumes agents and the strict bound ∣P∣<n|P|<n∣P∣<n is false when n=0n=0n=0. The pool is computed as the complement of the union of pairwise disjoint assigned bundles. It is never a free set. EFX ranges over every pair i,ji,ji,j, including i=ji=ji=j, and every good of XjX_jXj​.

The minimal-envied-subset definition checks every strict subset against every agent. The most envious agent is a relation, allowing the paper's arbitrary tie choice. Reachability includes a path of length zero. U2's new allocation is calculated from its paths and chosen subsets. Lemma 6 includes Algorithm 1's acyclic-graph invariant and the ordering property established in its proof. It replaces the printed threshold ∣P∣≥n|P|\ge n∣P∣≥n with ∣P∣≥∣sources⁡(GX)∣|P|\ge|\operatorname{sources}(G_X)|∣P∣≥∣sources(GX​)∣, the exact number of fresh goods its construction needs and the threshold used by the goal. Lemma 7 takes that ordering property to make path assignments unambiguous.

The printed U2 pool expression in Algorithm 2, line 13, is malformed; the formal statement uses the pool of the constructed allocation and the corrected union of leftover goods. Theorem 8's final sentence also asserts an nmV/ΔnmV/\DeltanmV/Δ iteration bound. This mission poses the allocation conclusions, while a future run-level formalization would be needed to state and check the iteration count. The paper's preceding count of U1/U2 steps and successive U0 steps does not by itself imply the printed number. Definitions and the numbered lemma statements are welcome contributions; a purported proof that uses a free empty pool, overlapping bundles, zero agents or an arbitrary replacement allocation would not establish this target.

Selected references

  • B. R. Chaudhury, T. Kavitha, K. Mehlhorn and A. Sgouritsa, A Little Charity Guarantees Almost Envy-Freeness, arXiv:1907.04596v3, 2020; published in SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021. Pinned preprint.
  • R. J. Lipton, E. Markakis, E. Mossel and A. Saberi, On approximately fair allocations of indivisible goods, ACM EC 2004. https://doi.org/10.1145/988772.988792
  • I. Caragiannis, D. Kurokawa, H. Moulin, A. D. Procaccia, N. Shah and J. Wang, The unreasonable fairness of maximum Nash welfare, ACM EC 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2940716.2940726
  • B. Plaut and T. Roughgarden, Almost envy-freeness with general valuations, SODA 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.04769
  • I. Caragiannis, N. Gravin and X. Huang, Envy-freeness up to any item with high Nash welfare: the virtue of donating items, ACM EC 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04319
  • B. R. Chaudhury, J. Garg and K. Mehlhorn, EFX exists for three agents, ACM EC 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05119
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games III: The Price of Anarchy of the Maximum Social Cost Is Theta(sqrt N)Research Paper

Motivation

In a congestion game, several users choose facilities and each facility becomes more costly as more users choose it. Such games model settings in which each participant chooses a route or collection of resources for personal use while the resulting load is shared. A pure Nash equilibrium is a stable choice of routes: no single participant can lower their own cost by switching. Stability alone gives no assurance that the resulting allocation serves the group well. The price of anarchy compares the social cost of an equilibrium with the best social cost attainable by coordinated choices.

Christodoulou and Koutsoupias studied finite congestion games with linear latency functions and several notions of social cost. For the maximum cost borne by any player, their STOC 2005 paper gives both an upper bound valid for all such games and a family of instances showing that its square-root dependence on the number of players has the right order. This mission formalizes those two claims together. The maximum criterion matters when a single heavily delayed user is significant even if the total cost of the population is moderate.

Setting

Let N≥1N\ge1N≥1 be the number of players and let EEE be a finite set of facilities. Player iii has a finite collection Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ of available pure strategies, each a subset of EEE. A profile AAA chooses one strategy Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ for every player. For a facility eee, its load ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) is the number of players whose chosen strategy contains eee. The latency of eee at load nnn is fe(n)f_e(n)fe​(n). Player iii pays the sum of the latencies on the facilities they chose:

ci(A)=∑e∈Aife(ne(A)).c_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i}f_e(n_e(A)).ci​(A)=e∈Ai​∑​fe​(ne​(A)).

A profile is a pure Nash equilibrium if no player can decrease this cost by replacing their own strategy while the others keep theirs. The paper calls latencies linear when fe(n)=aen+bef_e(n)=a_en+b_efe​(n)=ae​n+be​ with ae,be≥0a_e,b_e\ge0ae​,be​≥0; these are affine functions in standard terminology. The paper displays many calculations for the special case fe(n)=nf_e(n)=nfe​(n)=n and states the general nonnegative affine convention in its model section. The maximum social cost is MAX⁡(A)=max⁡ici(A)\operatorname{MAX}(A)=\max_i c_i(A)MAX(A)=maxi​ci​(A); the total cost is SUM⁡(A)=∑ici(A)\operatorname{SUM}(A)=\sum_i c_i(A)SUM(A)=∑i​ci​(A). The paper's average social cost is SUM⁡(A)/N\operatorname{SUM}(A)/NSUM(A)/N.

For a game with at least one pure Nash equilibrium and a positive optimal maximum cost, the maximum-cost pure price of anarchy is the largest equilibrium value of MAX⁡\operatorname{MAX}MAX divided by the smallest feasible value. The Lean targets use inequalities against every feasible comparison profile PPP rather than dividing by an optimum. This form continues to say something when an optimum has cost zero, and finite strategy sets ensure an optimum exists whenever the profile space is nonempty.

Formalization targets

Universal upper bound

For every N≥1N\ge1N≥1, every finite game with nonnegative affine latencies, every pure Nash equilibrium AAA, and every feasible profile PPP, Theorem 5's proof yields

MAX⁡(A)≤(1+5N2)MAX⁡(P).\operatorname{MAX}(A)\le \left(1+\sqrt{\frac{5N}{2}}\right)\operatorname{MAX}(P).MAX(A)≤(1+25N​​)MAX(P).

This states a numerical version of the paper's O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) theorem without an unspecified constant. Taking PPP to minimize MAX⁡\operatorname{MAX}MAX gives the corresponding price-of-anarchy bound. The bound is about asymmetric games: players may have different strategy sets, and no symmetry assumption is present.

Lower-bound family

For every integer k≥2k\ge2k≥2, let N=k(k−1)+1N=k(k-1)+1N=k(k−1)+1. Theorem 6 provides an identity-latency congestion game with NNN players and kNkNkN facilities, a pure Nash profile AAA, and an optimal profile PPP for which

MAX⁡(A)=k2,MAX⁡(P)=k.\operatorname{MAX}(A)=k^2,\qquad \operatorname{MAX}(P)=k.MAX(A)=k2,MAX(P)=k.

Every feasible profile in the instance has maximum cost at least kkk. Thus the ratio is kkk, and k≥Nk\ge\sqrt Nk≥N​. The proof's explicit instance has positive comparison cost, so the lower bound cannot be satisfied by a zero-cost game. The source also says such behavior occurs in network congestion games and sketches a network realization in Figure 2; this mission's formal lower target is the finite congestion-game construction.

Significance

Together these results identify the order of growth of the worst pure equilibrium maximum cost relative to an optimum: it can grow with the population, yet for linear latencies it grows no faster than a constant times N\sqrt NN​. The upper statement applies to any feasible comparison profile, so it can also be used when a convenient benchmark is known without solving the entire optimization problem. The lower family prevents replacing the square-root dependence by a bound independent of NNN for this class of games.

The results are proved in the 2005 paper; the mission is to give them machine-checked Lean proofs in a common finite-game representation. The development also supplies reusable definitions of congestion games, loads, pure cost equilibria, and maximum social cost, together with the total-cost estimate of Theorem 1 and the intermediate bounds appearing in Theorem 5. The current draft contains statements with sorry placeholders, not completed proofs.

Difficulty

A bound on total player cost does not directly control the cost of the most expensive player sharply enough. An individual player can use several facilities whose loads interact, and bounding each load separately loses the dependence required for the square-root result. Affine coefficients add another issue: the proof printed for identity latencies writes a cardinality where the general statement needs a coefficient-weighted quantity. The lower example has an indexing discrepancy in the printed alternative strategies, so the intended Nash profile must be checked against the costs on every permitted deviation.

Formalization scope

Players are represented by Fin N; facilities by an arbitrary finite type in upper bounds and by a type with kNkNkN elements in the lower family. A profile is a function from players to finite facility sets, with feasibility stated separately. Latencies are real-valued on natural-number loads. The IsLinear predicate requires explicit nonnegative affine coefficients. Pure Nash uses a cost inequality; it is the negative-payoff version of a standard finite game's payoff equilibrium. MAX requires at least one player, and all upper-bound targets therefore require N≥1N\ge1N≥1. The lower family begins at k=2k=2k=2, where N=k(k−1)+1N=k(k-1)+1N=k(k−1)+1 is positive.

The source's number k2−k+1k^2-k+1k2−k+1 is written as k(k−1)+1k(k-1)+1k(k−1)+1 in Lean to keep natural-number subtraction inside its valid range. The two expressions agree for k≥2k\ge2k≥2. In the source's one-based indexing, the proposed alternative strategy uses a ceiling index. The printed denominator kkk makes some alternative facilities carry k+1k+1k+1 users and breaks the Nash assertion; denominator k−1k-1k−1 agrees with Figure 2's k−1k-1k−1 short-route users per layer and gives the stated costs. This correction is recorded with the lower theorem. No normalization of coefficients or artificially restricted strategy class is assumed. Contributions to the finite-game definitions, Theorem 1, the player-cost bounds, and the explicit lower instance are all in scope.

Selected references

  • G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proceedings of the 37th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 2005. DOI: 10.1145/1060590.1060600.
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Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 4: In the Mean-Sign Game the Sign Feedback Is an ε_n-Nash Equilibrium and the Mean Converges in Law to ½δ_{H⁺}+½δ_{H⁻}Research Paper

Motivation

Mean field games describe the limit of symmetric stochastic differential games with nnn players as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. A basic question of the theory is which mean field equilibria are limits of Nash equilibria of the nnn-player games. For closed-loop equilibria, in which each player's control may depend on the states of all players, this question was open in general until D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2020). That paper shows that limits of closed-loop εn\varepsilon_nεn​-Nash equilibria are weak mean field equilibria, a class that can be strictly larger than the classical (strong) one.

Section 7.3 of the paper gives an explicit game in which the difference is visible. It has exactly three strong equilibria (Lacker, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165, 2016, Proposition 3.6, cited as [43] in the paper) and infinitely many weak ones. The weak equilibria form a family indexed by a switching time t0∈[0,T]t_0\in[0,T]t0​∈[0,T], and for t0∈(0,T)t_0\in(0,T)t0​∈(0,T) they are not mixtures of strong equilibria (Remark 7.1). Proposition 7.2, the subject of this mission, treats t0=0t_0=0t0​=0: the natural symmetric feedback is an nnn-player approximate Nash equilibrium, and its population mean selects the equal mixture of the two strong equilibria m±1m^{\pm1}m±1 rather than the third one, m0m^0m0. The selection mechanism is regularization by noise: the mean of the population solves an ill-posed ODE, and the small noise of the nnn-player system picks out a particular random solution (Trevisan, Electron. Commun. Probab. 18, 2013, cited as [57] in the paper).

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0. In the mean-sign game each of nnn players controls a real state

Xti=∫0tαsi ds+Wti,X0i=0,X^i_t = \int_0^t \alpha^i_s\,ds + W^i_t,\qquad X^i_0=0,Xti​=∫0t​αsi​ds+Wti​,X0i​=0,

with controls αsi∈A=[−1,1]\alpha^i_s\in A=[-1,1]αsi​∈A=[−1,1] and independent standard Brownian motions W1,…,WnW^1,\dots,W^nW1,…,Wn. The mean process is μ‾tn=1n∑k=1nXtk\overline\mu^n_t=\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n X^k_tμ​tn​=n1​∑k=1n​Xtk​, the mean of the empirical measure μtn=1n∑kδXtk\mu^n_t=\frac1n\sum_k\delta_{X^k_t}μtn​=n1​∑k​δXtk​​. Player iii maximizes the expected terminal reward

Jin=E[XTi μ‾Tn],J^n_i=\mathbb E\big[X^i_T\,\overline\mu^n_T\big],Jin​=E[XTi​μ​Tn​],

that is, b(t,x,m,a)=ab(t,x,m,a)=ab(t,x,m,a)=a, f≡0f\equiv0f≡0, g(x,m)=x m‾g(x,m)=x\,\overline mg(x,m)=xm with m‾=∫y m(dy)\overline m=\int y\,m(dy)m=∫ym(dy), and initial law λ=δ0\lambda=\delta_0λ=δ0​.

A Markovian control of player iii is a Borel function β:[0,T]×Rn→[−1,1]\beta:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^n\to[-1,1]β:[0,T]×Rn→[−1,1] of time and the current states of all players. A profile (α1,…,αn)(\alpha^1,\dots,\alpha^n)(α1,…,αn) is a Markovian ε\varepsilonε-Nash equilibrium if no player can raise their payoff by more than ε\varepsilonε by switching to another Markovian control while the others keep theirs (Definition 2.1).

With sgn⁡(x)=1,−1,0\operatorname{sgn}(x)=1,-1,0sgn(x)=1,−1,0 for x>0x>0x>0, x<0x<0x<0, x=0x=0x=0, the sign feedback (7.13) with t0=0t_0=0t0​=0 is

α0n,i(t,x1,…,xn)=sgn⁡(1n∑k=1nxk)1(0,T](t),\alpha^{n,i}_0(t,x_1,\dots,x_n)=\operatorname{sgn}\Big(\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n x_k\Big)\mathbf 1_{(0,T]}(t),α0n,i​(t,x1​,…,xn​)=sgn(n1​k=1∑n​xk​)1(0,T]​(t),

the same for every player. Finally H0±(t)=±tH^\pm_0(t)=\pm tH0±​(t)=±t on [0,T][0,T][0,T] (7.11).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7.2

For the profile αn=(α0n,1,…,α0n,n)\alpha^n=(\alpha^{n,1}_0,\dots,\alpha^{n,n}_0)αn=(α0n,1​,…,α0n,n​):

∃ εn≥0, εn→0:αn is a Markovian εn-Nash equilibrium for each n,\exists\,\varepsilon_n\ge0,\ \varepsilon_n\to0:\quad \alpha^n\ \text{is a Markovian }\varepsilon_n\text{-Nash equilibrium for each }n,∃εn​≥0, εn​→0:αn is a Markovian εn​-Nash equilibrium for each n, L((μ‾tn[αn])t∈[0,T]) ⟹ 12δH0++12δH0−on C([0,T];R).\mathcal L\big((\overline\mu^n_t[\alpha^n])_{t\in[0,T]}\big)\ \Longrightarrow\ \tfrac12\delta_{H^+_0}+\tfrac12\delta_{H^-_0}\quad\text{on }C([0,T];\mathbb R).L((μ​tn​[αn])t∈[0,T]​) ⟹ 21​δH0+​​+21​δH0−​​on C([0,T];R).

The goal also asserts that the nnn-player system under αn\alpha^nαn has a solution, so that the equilibrium property cannot hold vacuously.

Milestones

  1. The equilibrium payoff: J1n(αn)=E[∣μ‾Tn∣2]→T2J^n_1(\alpha^n)=\mathbb E[|\overline\mu^n_T|^2]\to T^2J1n​(αn)=E[∣μ​Tn​∣2]→T2 (proof of Proposition 7.2, p. 49).
  2. Lemma 7.4, the part about the mean YnY^nYn and player 1's noise W1W^1W1 when player 1 deviates to a 1n\frac1nn1​-optimal control (7.15): the laws of (Yn,W1)(Y^n,W^1)(Yn,W1) are tight, and every limit (Y,W)(Y,W)(Y,W) has L(Y)=12δH0++12δH0−\mathcal L(Y)=\tfrac12\delta_{H^+_0}+\tfrac12\delta_{H^-_0}L(Y)=21​δH0+​​+21​δH0−​​, solves Yt=∫0tsgn⁡(Ys) dsY_t=\int_0^t\operatorname{sgn}(Y_s)\,dsYt​=∫0t​sgn(Ys​)ds, and has YYY independent of WWW.
  3. The upper bound (7.14): lim sup⁡nsup⁡βJ1n(β,α0n,2,…,α0n,n)≤T2\limsup_n\sup_{\beta}J^n_1(\beta,\alpha^{n,2}_0,\dots,\alpha^{n,n}_0)\le T^2limsupn​supβ​J1n​(β,α0n,2​,…,α0n,n​)≤T2.

Significance

Proposition 7.2 is a concrete instance of the paper's main theme. Theorem 2.7 says that limits of closed-loop equilibria are weak equilibria; this example exhibits explicit, symmetric, Markovian approximate equilibria whose limit is a genuinely random equilibrium (the sign of the mean is a fair coin), selected by noise among infinitely many candidates, and it identifies the limiting law of the population mean exactly. The paper states that the analogous claim for t0∈(0,T)t_0\in(0,T)t0​∈(0,T), where the limit would be a weak equilibrium that is not a mixture of strong ones, is not resolved; a formal treatment of the t0=0t_0=0t0​=0 case makes the structure of that question precise.

Nothing of this proposition is machine-checked. Formalizing it requires weak solutions of SDEs with discontinuous drift, Nash equilibria over Markovian feedback controls, and weak convergence of laws on path space, all stated so that the junk values of Lean's total functions never enter. The objects defined here (the nnn-player game with quantified weak solutions, its payoffs and Markovian ε\varepsilonε-Nash equilibria) are shared with the other missions of this series.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for εn→0\varepsilon_n\to0εn​→0 compares player 1's payoff under a deviation with T2T^2T2. A deviation changes the drift of the mean only by O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n), but the dynamics of the mean, dYt=sgn⁡(Yt)dt+n−1/2dW‾tdY_t=\operatorname{sgn}(Y_t)dt+n^{-1/2}d\overline W_tdYt​=sgn(Yt​)dt+n−1/2dWt​, is ill-posed in the limit: the ODE y˙=sgn⁡(y)\dot y=\operatorname{sgn}(y)y˙​=sgn(y), y0=0y_0=0y0​=0, has infinitely many solutions ±(t−s)+\pm(t-s)^+±(t−s)+. Continuity of the solution map, the usual tool, is unavailable, and one must instead identify the limit law, which comes from the vanishing noise, and show that it is unchanged by the deviation. The second difficulty is that the payoff XT1YTX^1_TY_TXT1​YT​ is unbounded, so convergence of laws does not give convergence of payoffs without a uniform integrability estimate. The proof in the paper is short, but relies on a cited result on the vanishing-noise limit and on a compactness argument in a weak L2L^2L2 topology for the deviating controls.

Formalization scope

  • Dimension and state. d=1d=1d=1; R1\mathbb R^1R1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin 1) (the platform's EthierKurtz.SDEState 1) and its coordinate is y 0. Controls are real, A=[−1,1]A=[-1,1]A=[−1,1].
  • Pathwise equations. Volatility is the identity, so the SDE of each player is stated as Xti=X0i+∫0tb ds+WtiX^i_t=X^i_0+\int_0^t b\,ds+W^i_tXti​=X0i​+∫0t​bds+Wti​ almost surely for all t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T], with a Lebesgue integral of a bounded measurable integrand.
  • Solutions are quantified. A weak solution of the nnn-player system is a structure (probability space, filtration, independent F\mathbb FF-Brownian motions, i.i.d. initial states independent of the noise, adapted path-valued states, the empirical flow). Payoffs are functions of a solution; the Nash inequality and every limit statement are required for every solution. Solutions exist and are unique in law, so this matches the paper's definitions; the goal asserts existence explicitly.
  • Index shift. Term nnn of every sequence is the (n+1)(n+1)(n+1)-player game; the factor 1n\frac1nn1​ in the controls and the mean is then 1n+1\frac1{n+1}n+11​.
  • sgn and time. sgn⁡\operatorname{sgn}sgn is Real.sign (sgn⁡0=0\operatorname{sgn}0=0sgn0=0), and the control vanishes at t=0t=0t=0, both as printed.
  • Unbounded payoff. Assumption A fails (ggg is unbounded) and is not assumed anywhere. Payoffs are Bochner integrals; XTiμ‾TnX^i_T\overline\mu^n_TXTi​μ​Tn​ is integrable on every solution (bounded drift, X0i=0X^i_0=0X0i​=0), which is a fact to be proved rather than an assumption.
  • Laws. Laws on C([0,T];R)C([0,T];\mathbb R)C([0,T];R) carry the topology of weak convergence; the mean path is a continuous function of the state paths, so its law is a probability measure by construction.
  • Lemma 7.4. Only the (Y,W)(Y,W)(Y,W) coordinates are stated: tightness, (i), the equation for YYY in (ii), and (iv). The coordinates XXX and β\betaβ, which need the weak topology of L2([0,T];[−1,1])L^2([0,T];[-1,1])L2([0,T];[−1,1]), and item (iii) are not stated; the norm topology must not be substituted, because the deviating controls are not tight in it.
  • Ruled out. A statement in which the profiles have no solutions would make the Nash clause vacuous; the existence clause of the goal excludes it.

Contributions welcome: the existence of weak solutions for bounded measurable Markovian drifts, the vanishing-noise limit of dZ=sgn⁡(Z)dt+ϵ dWdZ=\operatorname{sgn}(Z)dt+\epsilon\,dWdZ=sgn(Z)dt+ϵdW, and Girsanov-type change-of-measure estimates are all reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020; arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
  • D. Lacker, A general characterization of the mean field limit for stochastic differential games, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165(3–4), 581–648, 2016 (reference [43] of the paper).
  • D. Trevisan, Zero noise limits using local times, Electron. Commun. Probab. 18, 2013 (reference [57] of the paper).
  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
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Economics·Captain: mikedeng1

Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets 3: Two Agents with Identical Additive Preferences and Generic Budgets Have a Competitive Equilibrium Giving Truncated SharesResearch Paper

Motivation

How should a set of indivisible items (courses, shifts, inherited objects) be divided among people who have different entitlements but no money to transfer? A classical answer for divisible goods is the competitive equilibrium from equal incomes (CEEI): give every agent a budget of artificial currency, find prices at which every agent can afford her favourite bundle and the market clears. The resulting allocation is Pareto optimal and fair. With indivisible items a CEEI can fail to exist already for one item and two agents with equal budgets: at any price, either both agents can afford the item or neither can.

Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (arXiv:1703.08150; Math. Oper. Res. 2021, doi:10.1287/moor.2020.1062) study this Fisher market with indivisible goods when budgets are generic: unequal budgets, with a measure-zero set of exceptional budget pairs excluded. Their main result is for two agents with almost equal budgets. This mission formalizes the companion result for two agents with identical additive preferences and arbitrary unequal budgets (Theorem 8.1 of the paper, its informal Theorem 1.4). With identical preferences the division problem is a discrete claims (bankruptcy) problem: one cake of fixed value is split between claimants with different entitlements b1,b2b_1, b_2b1​,b2​.

Timeline of the relevant results:

  • Budish (2011, doi:10.1086/664613): approximate CEEI with almost equal budgets for many agents, with an approximate market-clearing error.
  • Segal-Halevi (AAMAS 2018, arXiv:1705.04212), a follow-up to the preprint of this paper: for four agents with arbitrary budgets, non-existence of CE persists even with generic budgets.
  • Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (preprint 2017, journal 2021): exact CE for two additive agents with almost equal unequal budgets (Theorem 7.1), and for two agents with identical preferences and generic budgets (Theorem 8.1).

Setting

There are mmm indivisible items MMM and two agents. Agent iii has a valuation vi:2M→Rv_i : 2^M \to \mathbb Rvi​:2M→R that is additive, normalized (vi(M)=1v_i(M)=1vi​(M)=1), non-negative, monotone and strict (different bundles have different values), and a budget bi>0b_i > 0bi​>0, with b1+b2=1b_1 + b_2 = 1b1​+b2​=1. An allocation S=(S1,S2)\mathcal S = (\mathcal S_1, \mathcal S_2)S=(S1​,S2​) gives every item to exactly one agent. Item prices pj≥0p_j \ge 0pj​≥0 price a bundle at p(S)=∑j∈Spjp(S) = \sum_{j \in S} p_jp(S)=∑j∈S​pj​.

A bundle SSS is demanded by agent iii at prices ppp if p(S)≤bip(S) \le b_ip(S)≤bi​ and p(T)>bip(T) > b_ip(T)>bi​ for every bundle TTT with vi(T)>vi(S)v_i(T) > v_i(S)vi​(T)>vi​(S). A competitive equilibrium (CE) is a pair (S,p)(\mathcal S, p)(S,p) in which each Si\mathcal S_iSi​ is demanded by agent iii. An allocation is Pareto optimal (PO) if every other allocation is strictly worse for some agent. It is budget-proportional if vi(Si)≥biv_i(\mathcal S_i) \ge b_ivi​(Si​)≥bi​ for both agents, and anti-proportional if vi(Si)≤biv_i(\mathcal S_i) \le b_ivi​(Si​)≤bi​ for both, strictly for one.

The truncated share of agent iii is

bi−=max⁡{vi(Si′):S′ PO, vi(Si′)≤bi},b_i^- = \max\{ v_i(\mathcal S'_i) : \mathcal S' \text{ PO},\ v_i(\mathcal S'_i) \le b_i \},bi−​=max{vi​(Si′​):S′ PO, vi​(Si′​)≤bi​},

the best she can get in a PO allocation that gives her at most her budget share; an allocation gives her the truncated share if vi(Si)≥bi−v_i(\mathcal S_i) \ge b_i^-vi​(Si​)≥bi−​. The exceptional set RiR_iRi​ (Definition 6.2) consists of the budget pairs (bi,1−bi)(b_i, 1-b_i)(bi​,1−bi​) for which two PO allocations S(r),S(r+1)\mathcal S(r), \mathcal S(r+1)S(r),S(r+1), consecutive in agent iii's order of preference, satisfy bi/vi(S(r+1)i)=(1−bi)/(1−vi(S(r)i))b_i / v_i(\mathcal S(r+1)_i) = (1-b_i)/(1-v_i(\mathcal S(r)_i))bi​/vi​(S(r+1)i​)=(1−bi​)/(1−vi​(S(r)i​)). It is finite. The rectangle TiT_iTi​ (Definition 6.1) is a set of allocations between the truncated-share maximizers of the two agents.

In Lean all objects live in GenericBudgets.IdenticalPrefs: bundle, price, IsDemanded, IsCE, IsPO, IsStandardValuation, IsBudgetProportional, IsAntiProportional, GetsTruncatedShare, IsTruncMaximizer, InRectT, InR.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.1 (p. 20)

If v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​, b1>b2b_1 > b_2b1​>b2​, and (b1,b2)∉Ri(b_1,b_2) \notin R_i(b1​,b2​)∈/Ri​ for some agent iii, then

∃ (S,p) a CE with vj(Sj)≥bj− for j=1,2.\exists\, (\mathcal S, p) \text{ a CE with } v_j(\mathcal S_j) \ge b_j^- \text{ for } j = 1, 2.∃(S,p) a CE with vj​(Sj​)≥bj−​ for j=1,2.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 5.1 (p. 12): every budget-proportional, and every anti-proportional, PO allocation is supported in a CE.
  2. Lemma 6.3 (p. 15): no budget-proportional allocation, no PO anti-proportional allocation, (b1,b2)∉Ri(b_1,b_2) \notin R_i(b1​,b2​)∈/Ri​ and Ti=∅T_i = \emptysetTi​=∅ imply a CE with truncated shares.
  3. Constant-sum claim (p. 20): with identical preferences every allocation is PO and none is anti-proportional.
  4. Lemma 8.2 (p. 20): if every allocation is PO and (b1,b2)∉Ri(b_1,b_2) \notin R_i(b1​,b2​)∈/Ri​ for some iii, a CE exists; if moreover no PO allocation is anti-proportional, the same CE gives truncated shares.

Significance

Theorem 8.1 shows that the non-existence of CEEI for identical preferences is a knife-edge phenomenon: for every market with identical strict additive preferences, every unequal budget pair outside a finite set admits a CE, and the CE allocation is as close to budget-proportional as indivisibility allows. It gives a market-based solution to the indivisible claims problem with unequal entitlements, and its CE inherits Pareto optimality from the first welfare theorem (Theorem 2.4 of the paper).

The formalization targets three things on top of the paper. First, a machine-checked proof of the paper's main technical tool, Lemma 6.3, which also drives the paper's main Theorem 7.1 (mission 1 of this series), where it is applied to almost equal budgets instead of identical preferences. Second, precise definitions of the truncated share, the rectangle TiT_iTi​ and the exceptional set RiR_iRi​, whose informal versions leave conventions implicit (the maximization runs over PO allocations only; RiR_iRi​ is indexed by consecutive PO allocations). Third, verification of the proof chain Proposition 5.1 → Lemma 6.3 → Lemma 8.2 → Theorem 8.1. The statements compile, but none of these results has a machine-checked proof yet.

Difficulty

The reduction of Theorem 8.1 to Lemma 8.2 and the proof of Lemma 8.2 from Proposition 5.1 and Lemma 6.3 are short. The substance is in Lemma 6.3, which must exhibit prices supporting a PO allocation when no allocation gives both agents their budget shares. Demand is a condition over all 2m2^m2m bundles, so a candidate price vector has to be checked against every bundle each agent prefers, and the paper's construction breaks down on the exceptional budget pairs RiR_iRi​, which is why they are excluded; the argument is a case analysis over the finite Pareto frontier. The easy case, Proposition 5.1, covers only markets with a budget-proportional or anti-proportional PO allocation; with identical preferences and unequal budgets neither typically exists (no allocation is ever anti-proportional), so Lemma 6.3 cannot be avoided.

Formalization scope

Items are Fin m; agents are Fin 2, with indices 0,10, 10,1 for the paper's agents 1,21, 21,2, so b1>b2b_1 > b_2b1​>b2​ is b 1 < b 0. Valuations are functions Finset (Fin m) → ℝ bundled with the standing assumptions in IsStandardValuation; identical preferences are the hypothesis v 0 = v 1. An allocation is a map Fin m → Fin 2, so every item is allocated exactly once. Budgets are positive reals summing to 111. All quantities are real.

Committed conventions and disclosed restrictions:

  • Strictness is injectivity of each valuation on bundles. The paper allows one exception, identical items; that exception is dropped, so markets with identical items are not covered by these statements.
  • The budget-proportional share is written bi vi(M)b_i\,v_i(M)bi​vi​(M), which equals bib_ibi​ under normalization.
  • The truncated share is stated without a max: vi(Si)≥vi(Si′)v_i(\mathcal S_i) \ge v_i(\mathcal S'_i)vi​(Si​)≥vi​(Si′​) for every PO S′\mathcal S'S′ with vi(Si′)≤biv_i(\mathcal S'_i) \le b_ivi​(Si′​)≤bi​.
  • "(b1,b2)(b_1,b_2)(b1​,b2​) does not belong to RiR_iRi​ for some agent iii" is read as an existential over iii.
  • RiR_iRi​ is encoded with consecutive PO allocations and the cross-multiplied equation, equivalent to the page's quotient form.
  • The constant-sum sentence of p. 20 says "at most their truncated share"; the definition it paraphrases (anti-proportional, p. 12) uses the budget-proportional share, and that is what is stated.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the demand condition quantifies over every bundle with strict inequality, allocations must assign every item, prices are non-negative, the truncated share is maximized over PO allocations only (not over all allocations), and the budget hypothesis excludes only the finite set RiR_iRi​ for one agent, never all unequal budgets.

Proposition 5.1 and Lemma 6.3 are posed with the same statement as in mission 1 of this series; a proof of either transfers verbatim. Contributions welcome: the finite-frontier infrastructure (existence and uniqueness of the truncated-share maximizer), Proposition 5.1 through budget-exhausting combination pricing, and Lemma 6.3.

Selected references

  • M. Babaioff, N. Nisan, I. Talgam-Cohen, Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets, arXiv:1703.08150v2, 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(1), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.08150, https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1062
  • E. Budish, The Combinatorial Assignment Problem: Approximate Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
  • E. Segal-Halevi, Competitive Equilibrium for Almost All Incomes, Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems (AAMAS), 2018, pp. 1267–1275. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04212
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks I: Every Supply Chain Network Has a Unique General Equilibrium of Rerouting Prices, Switching Costs and Default CascadesResearch Paper

Motivation

A failed buyer can leave a supplier with goods it can no longer sell through an existing order. A failed supplier can leave a buyer without inputs for future production. In a network, either loss can weaken another firm and start a sequence of defaults. Birge, Capponi and Chen model these effects together with two responses: suppliers reroute unsold goods to other buyers, and buyers seek replacement suppliers. Their accepted manuscript asks whether the resulting market decisions and the default cascade determine a single outcome. The issue matters when a network's resilience or fragility is measured from that outcome: a measure based on an unspecified equilibrium would not be well defined.

Setting

A supply chain order network has finitely many firms i,ji,ji,j and goods mmm. An order oijmo^m_{ij}oijm​ is the nonnegative quantity of good mmm that firm iii promises to deliver to firm jjj. The network also records each good's original price pmp^mpm, each firm's initial equity wiw_iwi​, its safety stock θim\theta_i^mθim​ and holding cost λim\lambda_i^mλim​, and a realized net production cost cic_ici​. The realization is fixed throughout this mission; the source treats it as random when comparing network performance later in the paper. Rerouting one unit costs firm iii an amount ιim\iota_i^mιim​; an unfilled unit of demand incurs back-order cost bimb_i^mbim​. These costs and the orders and stocks are nonnegative. The basic model is on pp. 8–17 of the manuscript.

If firm jjj defaults, a promised delivery to it is not made. Write γijm\gamma^m_{ij}γijm​ for this undelivered order, and rˉim=∑jγijm\bar r_i^m=\sum_j\gamma^m_{ij}rˉim​=∑j​γijm​ for firm iii's total amount of good mmm available to reroute. If a supplier jjj defaults, write δjim\delta^m_{ji}δjim​ for the buyer iii's lost input. After using safety stock, that buyer's unserved demand is σˉim=(∑jδjim−θim)+\bar\sigma_i^m=(\sum_j\delta^m_{ji}-\theta_i^m)^+σˉim​=(∑j​δjim​−θim​)+, where x+=max⁡(0,x)x^+=\max(0,x)x+=max(0,x). These are the quantities in equations (1)–(5).

The rerouted market for good mmm contains firms with rˉim>0\bar r_i^m>0rˉim​>0. At price πim\pi_i^mπim​, firm iii can sell up to rˉim\bar r_i^mrˉim​. Aggregate demand at price π\piπ is dm(π)d_m(\pi)dm​(π), with inverse demand dm−1d_m^{-1}dm−1​. The sourcing market contains firms with σˉim>0\bar\sigma_i^m>0σˉim​>0. At switching cost κim\kappa_i^mκim​, firm iii can replace up to σˉim\bar\sigma_i^mσˉim​ units. Aggregate supply is sm(κ)s_m(\kappa)sm​(κ), with inverse supply sm−1s_m^{-1}sm−1​. In either market, an efficient allocation maximizes the stated integral objective over the capacity box, and allocates proportionally to capacity among firms quoting the same price or cost. A partial equilibrium additionally makes every active firm's quoted price or cost a best response to all nonnegative unilateral deviations. These are Definitions 2.1–2.2 and 3.1–3.2.

A firm's ex-post net worth ei∗e_i^*ei∗​ combines original-order revenue, production and stock costs, rerouting revenue and cost, and back-order and replacement-supplier costs exactly as in equation (10). A firm defaults when its net worth is strictly negative. Starting with no undelivered orders or unserved demand, the update maps Φ∗\Phi^*Φ∗ and Ψ∗\Psi^*Ψ∗ mark all orders affected by firms that default after each market has reached its partial equilibrium. A market stable state is both the limit of that sequence and a fixed point of the update. A general equilibrium combines such a state with a partial equilibrium in every market (Definitions 3.3–3.4 and equation (18)).

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 4.3, stated on p. 24:

∃! (Π,K,Γ,Δ)  GeneralEquilibrium⁡(Π,K,Γ,Δ).\exists!\,(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta)\;\operatorname{GeneralEquilibrium}(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta).∃!(Π,K,Γ,Δ)GeneralEquilibrium(Π,K,Γ,Δ).

The quadruple consists of rerouting prices Π\PiΠ, switching costs KKK, undelivered orders Γ\GammaΓ, and unserved demand Δ\DeltaΔ. The claim includes existence and uniqueness of the full outcome, not merely of its default set. The milestone list follows the paper's dependency path: Propositions A.3 and A.6 identify the unique efficient allocations in the two markets; Propositions 4.1 and 4.2 identify their partial equilibria; Lemma A.7 states that greater disruption cannot increase any firm's partial-equilibrium net worth; and Lemma A.8 states that the default updates are bounded and increasing. The numbered results and their equations are in the E-Companion, EC pp. 4–12, and the main text, p. 22.

Significance

Proposition 4.3 makes the network's outcome a function of its order commitments, stocks, prices, market functions, and realized production costs. Later comparisons of network structures can therefore refer to the equilibrium without choosing among several price or default profiles. The result also separates local market choice from the way losses spread through the network: a firm can reroute or switch optimally and still fail once the effects of other failures are accounted for.

The paper proves the result in its E-Companion, EC pp. 12–13. This mission concerns a Lean statement of that known result and the reusable definitions needed to check a proof. The draft propositions are open proof obligations; this proposal does not claim machine-checked proofs of them. The two market allocation predicates, the default update, and the cascade limit can also support later formal work on the paper's resilience results.

Difficulty

The market and network conditions interact. An arbitrary fixed point of the default update need not be the state reached from zero; using only the fixed-point equation loses the uniqueness asserted by the paper. Conversely, knowing a cascade limit does not by itself show that the limit is fixed, because the update changes discontinuously when a firm's net worth crosses zero. At the market level, the price and switching-cost equilibria must be established from optimization and best-response conditions. Writing the formulas for the claimed equilibrium prices into those definitions would leave the central market claims unproved.

Formalization scope

Firms are Fin N and goods are Fin M, with N,M>0N,M>0N,M>0; the source numbers both from one, while Lean numbers them from zero. Orders and all default matrices are real valued and coordinatewise ordered. Active markets may be empty, as at the start of the cascade. Market objectives are ordinary real interval integrals over finite capacity boxes. The standing conditions include the paper's smoothness, concavity, and monotonicity assumptions on demand wherever it is positive and on the supply function, plus inverse identities and continuity on the quantity ranges used by the model. The inverse functions remain general data tied to dmd_mdm​ and sms_msm​; no linear demand or supply curve is imposed.

Several domain conventions make the displayed formulas meaningful. Assumption 2.1's minimum order is read over positive-order suppliers of a good; over all firms it would force zero safety stock whenever a nonsupplier exists. The inverse supply is nonnegative on feasible quantities, with sm(0)≤0s_m(0)\le0sm​(0)≤0, so the claimed switching cost belongs to the nonnegative strategy space. Demand inverse at zero is fixed to the reservation price. Assumptions 4.1–4.2 apply at each positive active-market total; for the general-equilibrium goal they are required for every binary 0/oijm0/o^m_{ij}0/oijm​ profile the cascade can visit. Differentiability at those totals is explicit. Initial equity and the order, stock, holding, rerouting, and back-order data are nonnegative; the realized net production cost can have either sign. The model uses the p. 23 convention for prices and costs outside active markets.

An efficient allocation remains an optimizer of equations (7) or (9), with proportional tie handling; a partial equilibrium remains a best response to every admissible deviation. The general equilibrium includes both the limit from zero and the fixed-point condition. These clauses exclude an equilibrium that is true by definition or a fixed point unrelated to the default cascade. The source's informal statement that every firm “supplies, consumes, or purchases” a good has no separate activity flag in this model; a firm with no internal order can still have outside production or consumption represented in cic_ici​. Milestone statements involving arbitrary disruption profiles restrict them to the feasible order box [0,O][0,O][0,O], where the market inverses are defined.

Selected references

  • John R. Birge, Agostino Capponi, and Peng-Chu Chen, Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks, accepted manuscript dated October 31, 2022, SSRN 3669363; published in Operations Research, 2023, DOI 10.1287/opre.2022.2409.
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 2: Every Strong MFE Is the Limit in Law of Markovian ε_n-Nash Equilibria of the n-Player GamesResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games (Lasry–Lions 2006, Huang–Malhamé–Caines 2006) describe Nash equilibria of stochastic differential games with very many symmetric players. In this description each player interacts with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states. The mean field game is meant to be the limit of the nnn-player games as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Making that link rigorous has two halves:

  • a limit theorem: every limit of nnn-player equilibria is a mean field equilibrium;
  • a converse: every mean field equilibrium is the limit of nnn-player approximate equilibria.

For closed-loop equilibria, where players react to the observed states of all others, both halves are harder than for open-loop equilibria. A single player's deviation changes the feedback of the whole system.

This mission covers the converse half of D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020).

Timeline.

  • Carmona–Delarue (2013) and Huang–Malhamé–Caines constructed ϵn\epsilon_nϵn​-Nash equilibria from mean field equilibria, under Lipschitz or linear-quadratic structure, with continuous feedbacks.
  • Cardaliaguet–Delarue–Lasry–Lions (2015, arXiv:1509.02505) obtained such a converse implicitly from a smooth master equation.
  • Lacker (2018) proved the converse for every strong mean field equilibrium. His hypotheses are bounded continuous coefficients and a drift that is Lipschitz in total variation, and the feedback may be discontinuous. The key input is a propagation-of-chaos result in total variation (Lacker, On a strong form of propagation of chaos for McKean–Vlasov equations, arXiv:1805.04476).

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0, a compact convex action set AAA in a real normed space, an initial law λ∈P(Rd)\lambda\in\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)λ∈P(Rd) and coefficients

b:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→Rd,f:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→R,g:Rd×P(Rd)→R.b:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\times A\to\mathbb R^d,\quad f:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\times A\to\mathbb R,\quad g:\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\to\mathbb R .b:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→Rd,f:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→R,g:Rd×P(Rd)→R.

The nnn-player game.

  • A Markovian control is a Borel map α:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A\alpha:[0,T]\times(\mathbb R^d)^n\to Aα:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A.
  • Under a profile α=(α1,…,αn)\alpha=(\alpha^1,\dots,\alpha^n)α=(α1,…,αn) the states solve
dXti=b(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,Xt))dt+dWti,μtn=1n∑kδXtk,dX^i_t=b\big(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,X_t)\big)dt+dW^i_t,\qquad \mu^n_t=\tfrac1n\textstyle\sum_{k}\delta_{X^k_t},dXti​=b(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,Xt​))dt+dWti​,μtn​=n1​∑k​δXtk​​,

with independent Brownian motions WiW^iWi and i.i.d. initial states of law λ\lambdaλ.

  • Player iii receives Jin(α)=E[∫0Tf(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,Xt))dt+g(XTi,μTn)]J^n_i(\alpha)=\mathbb E\big[\int_0^Tf(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,X_t))dt+g(X^i_T,\mu^n_T)\big]Jin​(α)=E[∫0T​f(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,Xt​))dt+g(XTi​,μTn​)].
  • The profile is a Markovian ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium if no player gains more than ϵ\epsilonϵ by switching to another Markovian control.
  • Relaxed controls take values in P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) and average bbb and fff against them.

The mean field game. A flow m∈C([0,T];P(Rd))m\in C([0,T];\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d))m∈C([0,T];P(Rd)) is a strong MFE if some Borel feedback α∗:[0,T]×Rd→A\alpha^*:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\to Aα∗:[0,T]×Rd→A satisfies two conditions:

  • the state dXt∗=b(t,Xt∗,mt,α∗(t,Xt∗))dt+dWtdX^*_t=b(t,X^*_t,m_t,\alpha^*(t,X^*_t))dt+dW_tdXt∗​=b(t,Xt∗​,mt​,α∗(t,Xt∗​))dt+dWt​, X0∗∼λX^*_0\sim\lambdaX0∗​∼λ, has law mtm_tmt​ at every time;
  • α∗\alpha^*α∗ maximizes E[∫0Tf(t,Xt,mt,α(t,Xt))dt+g(XT,mT)]\mathbb E[\int_0^Tf(t,X_t,m_t,\alpha(t,X_t))dt+g(X_T,m_T)]E[∫0T​f(t,Xt​,mt​,α(t,Xt​))dt+g(XT​,mT​)] among all Borel feedbacks α\alphaα.

A strong RMFE is the relaxed analogue.

The assumptions are:

  • Assumption A: AAA compact convex; b,f,gb,f,gb,f,g bounded and jointly continuous.
  • Assumption B: the sets {(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)}\{(b(t,x,m,a),z):a\in A,\ z\le f(t,x,m,a)\}{(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)} are convex.
  • Assumption C: ∣b(t,x,m,a)−b(t,x,m′,a)∣≤c ∥m−m′∥TV|b(t,x,m,a)-b(t,x,m',a)|\le c\,\|m-m'\|_{TV}∣b(t,x,m,a)−b(t,x,m′,a)∣≤c∥m−m′∥TV​, with ∥m−m′∥TV=sup⁡∣φ∣≤1∫φ d(m−m′)\|m-m'\|_{TV}=\sup_{|\varphi|\le1}\int\varphi\,d(m-m')∥m−m′∥TV​=sup∣φ∣≤1​∫φd(m−m′).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.11

Under Assumptions A, B and C, if mmm is a strong MFE, there are two families of objects:

  • numbers ϵn≥0\epsilon_n\ge0ϵn​≥0 with ϵn→0\epsilon_n\to0ϵn​→0;
  • for each nnn, Markovian ϵn\epsilon_nϵn​-Nash equilibria αn\alpha^nαn;

such that

μn[αn] → law  min C([0,T];P(Rd)).\mu^n[\alpha^n]\ \xrightarrow{\ \text{law}\ }\ m\quad\text{in }C([0,T];\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)).μn[αn]  law ​ min C([0,T];P(Rd)).

The goal asserts no rate, so any quantitative improvement still implies it.

Milestones

  • Proposition 3.7 (strong part): under A and B, strong MFE and strong RMFE are the same flows.
  • Theorem 2.14 (Markovian projection): a drift process can be replaced by a Markovian drift b^(t,x)=E[bt∣Xt=x]\hat b(t,x)=\mathbb E[b_t\mid X_t=x]b^(t,x)=E[bt​∣Xt​=x] with the same one-dimensional marginals.
  • (7.2): for the symmetric profile Λn,i(t,x)=Λ∗(t,xi)\Lambda^{n,i}(t,x)=\Lambda^*(t,x^i)Λn,i(t,x)=Λ∗(t,xi), μn→m\mu^n\to mμn→m in law and ∫φ dμtn→∫φ dmt\int\varphi\,d\mu^n_t\to\int\varphi\,dm_t∫φdμtn​→∫φdmt​ in probability for bounded measurable φ\varphiφ.
  • νn→m\nu^n\to mνn→m (§7.1, p. 45): after one player deviates, the empirical flow still converges to mmm in probability.
  • Theorem 3.10: the relaxed converse, under A and C only.
  • Proposition 3.4(a): under A and B, a relaxed Markovian ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium can be replaced by a strict one with the same state law.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.11 says that the strong MFE is a faithful idealization: every classical mean field equilibrium is approximately realized by Markovian feedback equilibria of large finite games. No continuity of the equilibrium feedback and no master equation are required. Together with the paper's main limit theorem (mission 1 of this series), it locates strong MFE inside the set of limits of closed-loop equilibria. The paper's Section 2.4 explains why the same converse is open for weak MFE.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper but has no machine-checked proof. A complete development would produce several reusable pieces:

  • pathwise formulations of SDEs with bounded measurable drift;
  • the Markovian projection theorem;
  • total-variation propagation of chaos;
  • relaxed-control purification by measurable selection.

None of these is in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument has every player use α∗(t,Xti)\alpha^*(t,X^i_t)α∗(t,Xti​), invokes the McKean–Vlasov limit, and passes optimality to the limit. It fails at two places:

  • Discontinuous feedback. α∗\alpha^*α∗ is only measurable, so weak convergence of μn\mu^nμn does not give convergence of payoffs. Convergence in probability of ∫φ dμtn\int\varphi\,d\mu^n_t∫φdμtn​ for discontinuous φ\varphiφ is needed, and that is exactly what the total-variation Lipschitz Assumption C provides.
  • Arbitrary deviations. A deviating player's control βn\beta^nβn is arbitrary and depends on all nnn states. Its limit is a relaxed, non-Markovian control. Comparing it with the mean field optimum requires a projection back onto Markovian feedbacks, without losing the marginal laws.

Formalization scope

Representation.

  • States live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d).
  • P(⋅)\mathcal P(\cdot)P(⋅) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure with the weak topology and the Borel σ\sigmaσ-field.
  • Paths and flows are continuous maps on Set.Icc 0 T with the compact-open (uniform) topology.
  • Unit volatility makes every SDE a pathwise integral equation Xt=X0+∫0t(drift)ds+WtX_t=X_0+\int_0^t(\text{drift})ds+W_tXt​=X0​+∫0t​(drift)ds+Wt​ a.s., with no stochastic integral.
  • Solutions are quantified, not chosen. Payoffs are functions of a solution, and every equilibrium inequality, consistency condition and convergence statement is required for every solution. This equals the paper's definitions because solutions exist and are unique in law (Girsanov; Veretennikov; Krylov–Röckner).
  • The game with n+1n+1n+1 players is indexed by nnn.

Committed choices.

  • The paper's consistency condition "mt=L(Xt)m_t=\mathcal L(X_t)mt​=L(Xt​)" is read as L(Xt∗)\mathcal L(X^*_t)L(Xt∗​).
  • "Strong RFME" in Proposition 3.7 is read as strong RMFE.
  • Theorem 2.14's "unique strong solution" is a strong solution adapted to the completed filtration of (X0,W)(X_0,W)(X0​,W); its existence is part of the conclusion.
  • The νn\nu^nνn milestone is stated for arbitrary relaxed Markovian deviations, which include the paper's near-optimal ones.
  • Coefficients and controls are defined at all real times; only [0,T][0,T][0,T] matters.

Ruled out. Because equilibria quantify over solutions, a profile whose state system has no solution would be an equilibrium vacuously. For this reason every existence conclusion (the goal, Theorem 3.10, Proposition 3.4(a)) also asserts that the chosen profiles have solutions, and strong (R)MFE requires the equilibrium SDE to have one.

Infrastructure. A complete proof needs Girsanov's theorem, strong existence for SDEs with bounded measurable drift, measurable selection, tightness on path space, and total-variation propagation of chaos. Each is reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome. Proposition 3.4(b), the weak half of Proposition 3.7, and Theorem 2.7 are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
  • D. Lacker, On a strong form of propagation of chaos for McKean–Vlasov equations, Electron. Commun. Probab. 23, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04476
  • I. Gyöngy, Mimicking the one-dimensional marginal distributions of processes having an Itô differential, Probab. Theory Related Fields 71, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699039
  • G. Brunick, S. Shreve, Mimicking an Itô process by a solution of a stochastic differential equation, Ann. Appl. Probab. 23(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.0111
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1210.5780
  • P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Annals of Math. Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
  • A. Yu. Veretennikov, On strong solutions and explicit formulas for solutions of stochastic integral equations, Math. USSR Sb. 39, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1070/SM1981v039n03ABEH001518
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 1: Empirical Measure Flows of Closed-Loop ε_n-Nash Equilibria Are Tight and Every Limit in Law Is a Weak MFEResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games (MFG) were introduced by Lasry and Lions (2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) as limits of stochastic differential games with many symmetric players. The model is only meaningful if equilibria of the nnn-player games actually converge to equilibria of the limit game. That convergence depends on what information the players use. For open-loop equilibria, where controls are functions of the noise, it was established in general by Lacker (2016) and Fischer (2017). For closed-loop equilibria, where a player's control is a feedback on the observed states of all players, the deviation of one player changes the state processes of all others, and the only general results before this paper (Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions, 2019) required a unique MFE and a smooth solution of the master equation.

Timeline:

  • 2006–2007: Lasry–Lions and Huang–Malhamé–Caines introduce MFG and construct approximate nnn-player equilibria from an MFE.
  • 2016–2017: Lacker and Fischer characterize limits of open-loop nnn-player equilibria as (weak) MFE, under continuity and compactness assumptions.
  • 2015/2019: Cardaliaguet–Delarue–Lasry–Lions prove convergence of closed-loop Markovian equilibria with a rate, assuming the master equation has a smooth solution (in particular, monotone data).
  • 2018: Lacker (arXiv:1808.02745, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2020) proves the closed-loop limit theorem without uniqueness or master equation, under bounded continuous data and a convexity condition. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Fix a dimension ddd, a horizon T>0T>0T>0, a compact convex control set AAA in a normed space, an initial law λ\lambdaλ on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, and bounded continuous functions b(t,x,m,a)∈Rdb(t,x,m,a)\in\mathbb R^db(t,x,m,a)∈Rd, f(t,x,m,a)∈Rf(t,x,m,a)\in\mathbb Rf(t,x,m,a)∈R, g(x,m)∈Rg(x,m)\in\mathbb Rg(x,m)∈R, where mmm ranges over the probability measures P(Rd)\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)P(Rd) with the weak topology (Assumption A). Assumption B asks that {(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)}\{(b(t,x,m,a),z): a\in A,\ z\le f(t,x,m,a)\}{(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)} be convex for each (t,x,m)(t,x,m)(t,x,m).

In the nnn-player game, player iii picks an admissible closed-loop control αi(t,x)\alpha^i(t,x)αi(t,x): a measurable, non-anticipating function of time and of the paths of all nnn states. The states solve

dXti=b(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,X))dt+dWti,μtn=1n∑k=1nδXtk,dX^i_t=b\big(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,X)\big)dt+dW^i_t,\qquad \mu^n_t=\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\delta_{X^k_t},dXti​=b(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,X))dt+dWti​,μtn​=n1​k=1∑n​δXtk​​,

with independent Brownian motions and i.i.d. initial states of law λ\lambdaλ, and player iii receives Jin(α)=E[∫0Tf(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,X))dt+g(XTi,μTn)]J^n_i(\alpha)=\mathbb E\big[\int_0^Tf(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,X))dt+g(X^i_T,\mu^n_T)\big]Jin​(α)=E[∫0T​f(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,X))dt+g(XTi​,μTn​)]. A closed-loop ε\varepsilonε-Nash equilibrium is a profile from which no player gains more than ε\varepsilonε by a unilateral deviation. The random empirical measure flow μn=(μtn)t∈[0,T]\mu^n=(\mu^n_t)_{t\in[0,T]}μn=(μtn​)t∈[0,T]​ is an element of C([0,T];P(Rd))C([0,T];\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d))C([0,T];P(Rd)).

A function of (t,x,m)(t,x,m)(t,x,m), with mmm a measure flow, is semi-Markov if it depends on mmm only through (ms)s≤t(m_s)_{s\le t}(ms​)s≤t​. A weak MFE is a filtered probability space carrying a random flow μ\muμ, a Brownian motion WWW and a state X∗X^*X∗ with X0∗∼λX^*_0\sim\lambdaX0∗​∼λ, with X0∗,μ,WX^*_0,\mu,WX0∗​,μ,W independent, a semi-Markov control α∗(t,Xt∗,μ)\alpha^*(t,X^*_t,\mu)α∗(t,Xt∗​,μ) driving X∗X^*X∗, optimality of α∗\alpha^*α∗ against every semi-Markov alternative (the alternative state being driven by the same WWW and μ\muμ), and the consistency condition μt=P(Xt∗∈⋅∣Ftμ)\mu_t=\mathbb P(X^*_t\in\cdot\mid\mathcal F^\mu_t)μt​=P(Xt∗​∈⋅∣Ftμ​). When μ\muμ is deterministic this is the usual (strong) MFE.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.7

Under Assumptions A and B, if εn≥0\varepsilon_n\ge0εn​≥0, εn→0\varepsilon_n\to0εn​→0, and αn\alpha^nαn is a closed-loop εn\varepsilon_nεn​-Nash equilibrium of the nnn-player game, then

{L(μn[αn])}n is tight in P(C([0,T];P(Rd))),\big\{\mathcal L(\mu^n[\alpha^n])\big\}_n\ \text{is tight in}\ \mathcal P\big(C([0,T];\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d))\big),{L(μn[αn])}n​ is tight in P(C([0,T];P(Rd))),

and every subsequential limit in law is the law of the flow of a weak MFE. No constant and no rate is asserted.

Milestones

Without convexity (Theorem 3.9) the same holds with weak relaxed MFE, and Proposition 3.7 identifies weak relaxed MFE flows with weak MFE flows under Assumption B. The proof path of Section 5 is: tightness of the path-space empirical measures (Lemma 5.1), a projection lemma (Lemma 5.2), the realization of a randomized Fokker–Planck equation by a semi-Markov relaxed control (Lemma 5.3), identification of the limiting dynamics with the limiting average value (Theorem 5.4), approximation of relaxed by continuous controls (Lemma 5.5), and the limit of unilateral deviations (Proposition 5.6). Two supporting results come from Section 2.1 (well-posedness of the nnn-player system) and Appendix A (Corollary A.7).

Significance

The theorem shows that the mean field game is the correct limit of closed-loop nnn-player games without any uniqueness assumption, which is the regime where the master-equation method is unavailable. The price is the limit object: a weak MFE, whose measure flow may be random and whose control may depend on the past of the flow. The paper also shows (Proposition 7.2) that this randomness genuinely occurs, so the result cannot be strengthened to strong MFE in general. Combined with the converse (Theorem 2.11, mission 2 of this series), it characterizes which MFE arise as closed-loop limits.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it is machine-checked. A formalization produces a checked definition of closed-loop nnn-player games and of weak semi-Markov MFE, which are reusable for any MFG convergence result, and it would make explicit the measurability bookkeeping (semi-Markov controls, completed filtrations, conditional laws) that the paper outsources to its appendices.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the deviation step. In the open-loop setting a deviating player leaves the other players' states unchanged; here the other players' feedback controls react to the deviation, so the state of every player changes. The paper's way around this is to identify the limit with semi-Markov controls and show that the value of a deviation can be approximated by nnn-player deviations of a specific form; making this work requires relaxed controls, a measurable projection onto the filtration of the (random) flow, and well-posedness of SDEs with bounded measurable drift and random coefficients. A newcomer's first idea, passing the Nash inequality to the limit with Markovian limit controls, does not work, because the limit flow is random and the limit control must see its past.

Formalization scope

  • States, laws, paths. Rd\mathbb R^dRd is the platform's EthierKurtz.SDEState d; Brownian motion is the platform's EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian. P(E)\mathcal P(E)P(E) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure with the weak topology and the Borel σ\sigmaσ-field of that topology. Paths and flows are continuous maps on [0,T][0,T][0,T] with the uniform topology.
  • Pathwise equations. The volatility is the identity (footnote 4), so every SDE is stated as Xt=X0+∫0tdrift ds+WtX_t=X_0+\int_0^t\text{drift}\,ds+W_tXt​=X0​+∫0t​driftds+Wt​ for all ttt, almost surely; no Itô integral is needed.
  • Solutions are quantified, not chosen. JinJ^n_iJin​ is computed on a given weak solution, and the Nash inequality is required for every solution of the original and of the deviated profile; this is the paper's definition because solutions exist and are unique in law (a milestone).
  • The alternative state in the weak MFE ranges over the solutions adapted to the completed filtration generated by (X0∗,W,μ)(X^*_0,W,\mu)(X0∗​,W,μ) (Remark 2.6), not over all adapted solutions.
  • Indexing. Term nnn of every sequence is the game with n+1n+1n+1 players; "every limit in distribution" quantifies over all subsequences.
  • Explicit hypotheses and corrected misprints. Lemma 5.3 needs μ0=λ\mu_0=\lambdaμ0​=λ a.s.; the paper omits it, and the statement adds it. Lemma 5.3(a) uses Λ∗(s,⋅,μ)\Lambda^*(s,\cdot,\mu)Λ∗(s,⋅,μ) inside ∫0t⋯ds\int_0^t\cdots ds∫0t​⋯ds, where the paper prints ttt. Lemma 5.5 states convergence of (μ,X[βn])(\mu,X[\beta^n])(μ,X[βn]), where the paper prints X[Λn]X[\Lambda^n]X[Λn]. In Definition 3.6(5) the alternative starts from X0∗X^*_0X0∗​, where the paper prints X0∼λX_0\sim\lambdaX0​∼λ. Theorem 5.4's value identity (5.8) is stated along a further subsequence: as printed, along the whole subsequence, it fails for an arbitrary sequence of controls, and the paper's proof passes to a further subsequence. Measurability of every process is explicit, so laws and conditional expectations are never degenerate. Proposition 3.7 is posed for its weak part only.
  • Not a trivialization. The solution class NSol is inhabited and the weak MFE predicate is satisfiable (checked for d=0d=0d=0), so neither the hypotheses nor the conclusion of the goal holds vacuously; the conclusion asserts the existence of a weak MFE with the limiting flow law, not a property of an arbitrary one.
  • Welcome contributions. Weak existence and uniqueness for SDEs with bounded measurable drift (Girsanov, Veretennikov), Prokhorov-type tightness on path space, relaxed-control compactness, and measurable selection are all missing from Mathlib and reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Japanese Journal of Mathematics 2(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Communications in Information and Systems 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • D. Lacker, A general characterization of the mean field limit for stochastic differential games, Probab. Theory Related Fields 165, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.2708
  • M. Fischer, On the connection between symmetric N-player games and mean field games, Ann. Appl. Probab. 27(2), 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.1345
  • P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Annals of Mathematics Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
17 thms1 active userReviewed
Economics·Captain: mikedeng1

Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets 1: Two Additive Agents with Almost Equal but Unequal Budgets Have a Competitive Equilibrium Giving Each Agent Her Truncated ShareResearch Paper

Motivation

Many allocation problems divide indivisible goods among agents who are entitled to different shares but cannot pay with real money: course seats among students, shifts among workers, inherited items among heirs. A standard mechanism gives each agent a budget of artificial currency and lets a market run. When budgets are equal this is the competitive equilibrium from equal incomes (CEEI) of Varian (1974), the basis of the course-allocation mechanism of Budish (2011). With indivisible items, however, an equilibrium can fail to exist: one item and two agents with equal budgets already admit none, because whoever does not get the item could afford it at any price the owner can pay.

Babaioff, Nisan and Talgam-Cohen (arXiv 2017; Math. Oper. Res. 2021, doi:10.1287/moor.2020.1062) ask whether this failure is robust or a knife edge, and answer for two agents with additive preferences: an arbitrarily small, strict inequality between the budgets restores existence. Budish's approximate CEEI perturbs budgets randomly for the same reason; this mission formalizes the exact two-agent result.

Setting

A discrete Fisher market has a set MMM of mmm indivisible items and two agents. Agent iii has a valuation viv_ivi​ assigning a real value to every bundle S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M, and a budget bi>0b_i>0bi​>0. Valuations are additive (vi(S)=∑j∈Svi({j})v_i(S)=\sum_{j\in S}v_i(\{j\})vi​(S)=∑j∈S​vi​({j})), normalized (vi(M)=1v_i(M)=1vi​(M)=1), non-negative, monotone (vi(S)<vi(T)v_i(S)<v_i(T)vi​(S)<vi​(T) when S⊊TS\subsetneq TS⊊T) and strict (different bundles have different values). Budgets are normalized, b1+b2=1b_1+b_2=1b1​+b2​=1; money has no value to the agents.

An allocation S=(S1,S2)\mathcal S=(\mathcal S_1,\mathcal S_2)S=(S1​,S2​) is a partition of all items between the agents. Item prices pj≥0p_j\ge 0pj​≥0 give bundle prices p(S)=∑j∈Spjp(S)=\sum_{j\in S}p_jp(S)=∑j∈S​pj​. Agent iii demands SSS if p(S)≤bip(S)\le b_ip(S)≤bi​ and p(T)>bip(T)>b_ip(T)>bi​ for every bundle TTT with vi(T)>vi(S)v_i(T)>v_i(S)vi​(T)>vi​(S). A competitive equilibrium (CE) is a pair (S,p)(\mathcal S,p)(S,p) in which each agent demands her own bundle. An allocation is Pareto optimal (PO) if every other allocation is strictly worse for some agent.

Agent iii's budget-proportional share is bib_ibi​ (her budget times vi(M)=1v_i(M)=1vi​(M)=1). Her truncated share is the best value she gets in a PO allocation that gives her at most that share:

bi−=max⁡{vi(Si): S PO, vi(Si)≤bi}.b_i^-=\max\{v_i(\mathcal S_i):\ \mathcal S\ \text{PO},\ v_i(\mathcal S_i)\le b_i\}.bi−​=max{vi​(Si​): S PO, vi​(Si​)≤bi​}.

The Lean development uses the same names: bundle σ i for Si\mathcal S_iSi​, price, IsCE, IsPO, IsStandardValuation, GetsTruncatedShare.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 17)

For every two-agent additive market there is ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 such that every budget pair with

b2<b1≤b2+ϵb_2<b_1\le b_2+\epsilonb2​<b1​≤b2​+ϵ

admits a CE (S,p)(\mathcal S,p)(S,p) in which vj(Sj)≥bj−v_j(\mathcal S_j)\ge b_j^-vj​(Sj​)≥bj−​ for both agents. The goal fixes no value of ϵ\epsilonϵ; it asserts only that one exists for each market.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4.1 (p. 10): for a PO allocation with non-empty bundles and budget-exhausting prices, CE is equivalent to a pairwise swap condition, Condition (1).
  2. Lemma 4.3 (p. 11): a budget-exhausting combination pricing pj=αv1({j})+βv2({j})p_j=\alpha v_1(\{j\})+\beta v_2(\{j\})pj​=αv1​({j})+βv2​({j}) (α,β≥0\alpha,\beta\ge0α,β≥0, max⁡{α,β}>0\max\{\alpha,\beta\}>0max{α,β}>0) at a PO allocation is a CE.
  3. Proposition 5.1 (p. 12): budget-proportional and anti-proportional PO allocations are supported in a CE.
  4. Lemma 5.5 (p. 14): without budget-proportional or PO anti-proportional allocations, agent iii's augmented-share minimizer is agent kkk's truncated-share maximizer.
  5. Lemma 6.3 (p. 15): if the budgets avoid the finite exceptional set RiR_iRi​ and the rectangle of allocations TiT_iTi​ is empty, a CE with truncated shares exists.
  6. Case 1 of the proof (p. 18): a CE at budgets (12,12)(\tfrac12,\tfrac12)(21​,21​) remains a CE, after rescaling prices, when agent 1's budget is raised slightly.
  7. RiR_iRi​ avoidance (p. 19): almost equal but unequal budgets lie outside RiR_iRi​.

Two companion statements are drafted without being milestones: Theorem 4.4 (second welfare theorem) and Theorem 5.2 (a budget-proportional allocation implies a CE).

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.1 shows that the non-existence of CEEI with indivisible goods is a measure-zero phenomenon for two additive agents: equal budgets are the only bad point near equality, and the equilibrium obtained is also fair in the truncated-share sense. It justifies tie-breaking by tiny budget differences in practice. It is the two-agent base case of the paper's main open question (§9.1, p. 20), whether generic almost-equal budgets guarantee a CE for more than two agents; the paper also leaves open two agents with arbitrary generic budgets and non-identical preferences (p. 21). For arbitrary, not almost-equal, budgets, Segal-Halevi (AAMAS 2018) shows that genericity does not guarantee existence for four additive agents.

Formalizing it. No machine-checked proof of any result of this paper is known. The paper's own argument for one case of the goal is incomplete: in Case 2(b) of the proof of Theorem 7.1 (p. 19) it asserts that the two candidate allocations are mirror images of each other and that the rectangles T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ are empty. Both claims fail on an explicit three-item market. Theorem 7.1 itself held in every one of 6000 markets checked numerically during planning, including that one, where a CE with truncated shares exists at prices proportional to one agent's valuation. A formal proof therefore has to supply an argument the paper does not contain; the two false steps are not posed as milestones.

Difficulty

The milestones 1–5 are finite combinatorics on the Pareto frontier with sign bookkeeping. The difficulty sits in Case 2(b) of the goal: every allocation gives one agent more than 12\tfrac1221​ and the other less. The natural route, invoking Lemma 6.3, needs some TiT_iTi​ to be empty, and in that case both can be non-empty. Lemma 6.3 does not cover it, and the paper's symmetry argument cannot be repaired by choosing ϵ\epsilonϵ smaller, since in the counterexample the two candidate allocations stay the same for every small ϵ\epsilonϵ. A complete proof must show directly that one of the two "as fair as possible" allocations is supported by suitable prices.

Formalization scope

Items are Fin m and agents Fin 2; the paper's agents 1, 2 are indices 0, 1, so "b1>b2b_1>b_2b1​>b2​" reads b 1 < b 0. An allocation is a map σ : Fin m → Fin 2, which builds in that every item is allocated exactly once. All quantities are real numbers. Demand quantifies over every bundle, with strict inequality p(T)>bip(T)>b_ip(T)>bi​. Prices are non-negative by definition of a CE. The truncated share is a maximum over PO allocations only.

Two conventions are disclosed restrictions or additions:

  1. Strictness without identical items. The paper allows identical items as the single exception to strict preferences (p. 6). Here each valuation is injective on bundles, so markets with identical items are excluded.
  2. Rescaled prices in Case 1. The page says the perturbed CE uses unchanged prices; at normalized budgets the prices must be divided by 1+ϵ1+\epsilon1+ϵ, and the milestone says so.

In the goal ϵ\epsilonϵ is chosen after the valuations and before the budgets. A formalization in which ϵ\epsilonϵ depends on the budgets, demand ranges over a restricted family of bundles, allocations need not allocate every item, prices may be negative, or the truncated share is a maximum over all allocations, would be a different and in several cases trivial statement; all of these are ruled out.

The definitions file GenericBudgets.AlmostEqual.Setting holds the market, CE, PO, the fairness notions, combination pricing, Condition (1), TiT_iTi​ and RiR_iRi​, and is reusable for any two-agent indivisible-goods market with budgets. Proofs of the milestones, a repaired argument for Case 2(b), and general nnn-agent versions of the CE and PO infrastructure are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Babaioff, N. Nisan, I. Talgam-Cohen, Competitive Equilibrium with Indivisible Goods and Generic Budgets, arXiv:1703.08150v2, 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(1), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.08150v2, https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1062
  • H. R. Varian, Equity, envy, and efficiency, Journal of Economic Theory 9(1), 1974. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(74)90075-1
  • E. Budish, The combinatorial assignment problem: approximate competitive equilibrium from equal incomes, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1086/664613
  • E. Segal-Halevi, Competitive equilibrium for almost all incomes, Proceedings of AAMAS 2018, pp. 1267–1275. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04212
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Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Convergence of Closed-Loop Nash Equilibria to the Mean Field Game Limit 3: Under Convexity Every Markovian ε-Nash Equilibrium Is a Closed-Loop ε-Nash EquilibriumResearch Paper

Two notions of equilibrium in stochastic differential games

In an nnn-player stochastic differential game each player controls the drift of its own diffusion and is rewarded through a running and a terminal payoff that depend on its own state and on the empirical distribution of all states. A player's strategy can be closed-loop (path-dependent), reacting to the whole observed history of all states, or Markovian (in the engineering literature, "feedback perfect state"), reacting only to the current states and the time. The two lead to two equilibrium notions. A Markovian equilibrium is the object produced by the classical PDE approach (a Nash system of nnn parabolic equations), and it is the natural object for mean field game approximations. A closed-loop equilibrium is the economically more convincing notion, because it rules out profitable deviations to any strategy a player could actually implement.

D. Lacker's paper On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit (arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020, doi:10.1214/19-AAP1541) proves limit theorems for closed-loop equilibria as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Its Proposition 2.2, the subject of this mission, shows that under a convexity condition going back to Filippov and Roxin, the Markovian equilibria form a subset of the closed-loop ones. The limit theorems for closed-loop equilibria then apply to Markovian ones as well.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0, a dimension ddd, a number of players n≥1n\ge1n≥1, a control set AAA in a real normed space, an initial law λ\lambdaλ on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, and functions

b:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→Rd,f:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→R,g:Rd×P(Rd)→R.b:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\times A\to\mathbb R^d,\quad f:[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\times A\to\mathbb R,\quad g:\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)\to\mathbb R.b:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→Rd,f:[0,T]×Rd×P(Rd)×A→R,g:Rd×P(Rd)→R.

Assumption A: AAA is compact and convex, and b,f,gb,f,gb,f,g are bounded and jointly continuous. Assumption B: for each (t,x,m)(t,x,m)(t,x,m) the set K(t,x,m)={(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)}K(t,x,m)=\{(b(t,x,m,a),z): a\in A,\ z\le f(t,x,m,a)\}K(t,x,m)={(b(t,x,m,a),z):a∈A, z≤f(t,x,m,a)} is convex; this holds, for instance, if bbb is affine and fff concave in aaa.

Write Cd=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C^d=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)Cd=C([0,T];Rd). An admissible control is a Borel, non-anticipative map α:[0,T]×(Cd)n→A\alpha:[0,T]\times(\mathcal C^d)^n\to Aα:[0,T]×(Cd)n→A; the set of these is An\mathcal A_nAn​. A Markovian control is a Borel map α~:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A\tilde\alpha:[0,T]\times(\mathbb R^d)^n\to Aα~:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A, used as α(t,x)=α~(t,xt)\alpha(t,\boldsymbol x)=\tilde\alpha(t,\boldsymbol x_t)α(t,x)=α~(t,xt​); the set is AMn\mathcal{AM}_nAMn​. A profile α=(α1,…,αn)\boldsymbol\alpha=(\alpha^1,\dots,\alpha^n)α=(α1,…,αn) drives the states

dXti=b(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,X)) dt+dWti,μtn=1n∑k=1nδXtk,dX^i_t=b(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,\boldsymbol X))\,dt+dW^i_t,\qquad \mu^n_t=\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\delta_{X^k_t},dXti​=b(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,X))dt+dWti​,μtn​=n1​k=1∑n​δXtk​​,

with independent Brownian motions WiW^iWi and i.i.d. initial states of law λ\lambdaλ. Player iii receives

Jin(α)=E[∫0Tf(t,Xti,μtn,αi(t,X)) dt+g(XTi,μTn)].J^n_i(\boldsymbol\alpha)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T f(t,X^i_t,\mu^n_t,\alpha^i(t,\boldsymbol X))\,dt+g(X^i_T,\mu^n_T)\Big].Jin​(α)=E[∫0T​f(t,Xti​,μtn​,αi(t,X))dt+g(XTi​,μTn​)].

For ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0, a closed-loop ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium is a profile in Ann\mathcal A_n^nAnn​ with Jin(α)≥sup⁡β∈AnJin(α−i,β)−ϵJ^n_i(\boldsymbol\alpha)\ge\sup_{\beta\in\mathcal A_n}J^n_i(\alpha^{-i},\beta)-\epsilonJin​(α)≥supβ∈An​​Jin​(α−i,β)−ϵ for all iii; a Markovian ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium is a profile in AMnn\mathcal{AM}_n^nAMnn​ with the same inequality, the supremum taken over β∈AMn\beta\in\mathcal{AM}_nβ∈AMn​ only.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.2

Under Assumptions A and B, for every ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0,

α Markovian ϵ-Nash⟹α closed-loop ϵ-Nash.\boldsymbol\alpha\ \text{Markovian }\epsilon\text{-Nash}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad\boldsymbol\alpha\ \text{closed-loop }\epsilon\text{-Nash}.α Markovian ϵ-Nash⟹α closed-loop ϵ-Nash.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.14 (Markovian projection; Gyöngy, Brunick–Shreve). If Xt=X0+∫0tbs ds+WtX_t=X_0+\int_0^t b_s\,ds+W_tXt​=X0​+∫0t​bs​ds+Wt​ with bbb bounded and progressively measurable, there is a bounded Borel b^\widehat bb with b^(t,Xt)=E[bt∣Xt]\widehat b(t,X_t)=\mathbb E[b_t\mid X_t]b(t,Xt​)=E[bt​∣Xt​], and the strong solution of dYt=b^(t,Yt) dt+dWtdY_t=\widehat b(t,Y_t)\,dt+dW_tdYt​=b(t,Yt​)dt+dWt​, Y0=X0Y_0=X_0Y0​=X0​, has Yt=dXtY_t\overset d=X_tYt​=dXt​ for each ttt.
  2. (4.6)–(4.7). When player iii deviates to a closed-loop β\betaβ against Markovian opponents, producing states Y\boldsymbol YY, there is a Borel β~:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A\widetilde\beta:[0,T]\times(\mathbb R^d)^n\to Aβ​:[0,T]×(Rd)n→A with b(t,Yti,νtn,β~(t,Yt))=E[b(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Y))∣Yt]b(t,Y^i_t,\nu^n_t,\widetilde\beta(t,\boldsymbol Y_t))=\mathbb E[b(t,Y^i_t,\nu^n_t,\beta(t,\boldsymbol Y))\mid\boldsymbol Y_t]b(t,Yti​,νtn​,β​(t,Yt​))=E[b(t,Yti​,νtn​,β(t,Y))∣Yt​] and f(t,Yti,νtn,β~(t,Yt))≥E[f(t,Yti,νtn,β(t,Y))∣Yt]f(t,Y^i_t,\nu^n_t,\widetilde\beta(t,\boldsymbol Y_t))\ge\mathbb E[f(t,Y^i_t,\nu^n_t,\beta(t,\boldsymbol Y))\mid\boldsymbol Y_t]f(t,Yti​,νtn​,β​(t,Yt​))≥E[f(t,Yti​,νtn​,β(t,Y))∣Yt​].
  3. Payoff comparison. With such a β~\widetilde\betaβ​, Jin(β,α−i)≤Jin(β~,α−i)J^n_i(\beta,\alpha^{-i})\le J^n_i(\widetilde\beta,\alpha^{-i})Jin​(β,α−i)≤Jin​(β​,α−i).

Significance

The proposition makes the two equilibrium notions comparable: since a priori a Markovian equilibrium is tested only against Markovian deviations, there is no reason for it to survive path-dependent deviations, and without convexity it need not. Under Assumption B, every result about closed-loop equilibria (in the paper: tightness of the empirical measure flows and identification of their limits as weak mean field equilibria, Theorem 2.7) covers Markovian equilibria too, and in particular those built from classical solutions of the Nash system.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in this mission is open mathematics. To our knowledge none of it is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked formulation of the nnn-player game with weak solutions, both equilibrium notions, and the comparison; the Markovian projection theorem is a general result of stochastic analysis, used well beyond game theory (local volatility calibration, mimicking theorems), with no formal proof in any proof assistant that we know of.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt is to replace a closed-loop deviation β\betaβ by its "Markovian average", the conditional expectation of the control given the current state. This fails twice. First, bbb and fff are nonlinear in the control, so averaging the control changes both drift and reward; the convexity of KKK is what allows a single Markovian control to reproduce the conditional drift exactly while not losing reward, and producing it requires a measurable selection that is jointly measurable in time and state. Second, replacing the drift changes the law of the whole state process, so it is not clear that the payoff can be compared at all. Only the one-dimensional time marginals are preserved, and proving that requires the Markovian projection theorem, whose proof rests on uniqueness for a Fokker–Planck equation with merely bounded measurable drift. Neither ingredient is in Mathlib, which has no stochastic differential equations, Girsanov theorem, or Itô formula.

Formalization scope

  • State equations are pathwise. The volatility is the identity (footnote 4), so every SDE is written Xt=X0+∫0t(drift)s ds+WtX_t=X_0+\int_0^t(\text{drift})_s\,ds+W_tXt​=X0​+∫0t​(drift)s​ds+Wt​ for all t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T], a.s., with a Lebesgue integral; no Itô integral occurs.
  • Weak solutions are quantified, not chosen. A solution of the nnn-player system (NSol) bundles its own probability space (in Type), filtration, nnn independent Brownian motions jointly forming an ndndnd-dimensional F\mathbb FF-Brownian motion, adapted continuous states, i.i.d. initial states of law λ\lambdaλ independent of the noise, and the empirical flow. JinJ^n_iJin​ is evaluated on a given solution, and each ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash condition is required for every solution of the equilibrium profile and every solution of the deviated profile. This equals the paper's definition because solutions exist and are unique in law (Girsanov, p. 6); proving the goal therefore requires constructing solutions where needed.
  • Brownian motion is the platform's EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), made an F\mathbb FF-Brownian motion by adaptedness and independent increments; Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EthierKurtz.SDEState d.
  • Spaces. P(Rd)\mathcal P(\mathbb R^d)P(Rd) carries the weak topology and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-field; paths and flows are continuous maps on [0,T][0,T][0,T] with the compact-open (= uniform) topology and Borel σ\sigmaσ-field.
  • Explicit hypotheses: n≥1n\ge1n≥1 (NeZero n), T>0T>0T>0, ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0, measurability of every process and control, and the completed filtration of (X0,W)(X_0,W)(X0​,W) for the strong solution in Theorem 2.14 (platform EthierKurtz.completedBrownianPast). Coefficients and controls take a real time argument, constrained only on [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • Player index. The paper's proof is written for player 1; milestones 2 and 3 are stated for an arbitrary player iii.
  • Direction. The hypothesis tests only Markovian deviations, the conclusion all admissible closed-loop deviations. A formalization with the classes swapped, or one in which the solution sets are empty, would be trivially true; a sorry-free check in the workspace shows that solutions, Assumptions A–B and the hypothesis are all satisfiable.

Needed infrastructure: weak solutions of SDEs with bounded drift (Girsanov), strong existence for bounded measurable drift (Veretennikov), Fokker–Planck uniqueness, measurable selection, and disintegration of measures depending measurably on a parameter. The Markovian projection theorem and the Girsanov existence of nnn-player solutions are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions toward any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Lacker, On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit, arXiv:1808.02745v1, 2018; Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(4), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02745
  • I. Gyöngy, Mimicking the one-dimensional marginal distributions of processes having an Itô differential, Probab. Theory Related Fields 71, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699039
  • G. Brunick, S. Shreve, Mimicking an Itô process by a solution of a stochastic differential equation, Ann. Appl. Probab. 23(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-AAP881
  • A. Yu. Veretennikov, On strong solutions and explicit formulas for solutions of stochastic integral equations, Math. USSR-Sb. 39, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1070/SM1981v039n03ABEH001522
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains II: A Stable Joint-Auditing Coalition Audits the Common Supplier and Shares Costs FairlyResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands that sell consumer goods are held responsible by the public for the labour and safety practices of their suppliers. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh, about 200 clothing brands and retailers signed the Accord on Fire and Building Safety and inspect roughly 1,600 factories jointly; pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GSK audit their suppliers jointly through the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Initiative (both examples from the paper, pp. 4 and 14). Two features of such supply bases matter for auditing. Competing brands often share a common supplier, so a scandal at that supplier hurts both of them. And brands compete downstream, so a scandal that hurts only a rival can help a brand.

Chen, Qi and Dawande (MSOM 2020; accepted manuscript SSRN 2889889) model two competing buyers with one common and two independent suppliers. Their Proposition 2 shows that, when each buyer audits on his own, competition drives the buyers away from the common supplier: in every equilibrium it is left unaudited. This mission formalizes their Proposition 3. It shows that a coalition that audits jointly, and splits the cost by a Shapley-value rule, does audit the common supplier and is stable. A companion mission (Supplier Centrality … I) covers Proposition 2.

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: BiB_iBi​ from its independent supplier SiS_iSi​, and both from the common supplier ScS_cSc​. Each supplier is compliant with probability e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1). A non-compliant supplier that passes an audit of effort x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] (probability 1−x1-x1−x) is exposed in public with probability r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1]. An independent supplier audited with effort xxx therefore causes damage with probability λI(x)=r(1−e)(1−x)\lambda_I(x)=r(1-e)(1-x)λI​(x)=r(1−e)(1−x). The three suppliers offend independently.

If buyer BiB_iBi​ has ni∈{0,1,2}n_i\in\{0,1,2\}ni​∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers, its demand intercept falls from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha-d_Mα−dM​ (by dM>0d_M>0dM​>0 once, however many offend). Each exposed supplier also raises its unit input cost from www to w^≥w\hat w\ge ww^≥w. The buyers then play a Cournot game with differentiated products (substitution β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1]). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s equilibrium profit is π1b(n1,n2)=(q1∗)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2)=(q^*_1)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=(q1∗​)2, where

q1∗=2(A1−c1)−β(A2−c2)4−β2,Ai=α−dM1{ni≥1},ci=(2−ni)w+niw^.q^*_1=\frac{2(A_1-c_1)-\beta(A_2-c_2)}{4-\beta^2},\qquad A_i=\alpha-d_M\mathbf 1\{n_i\ge1\},\quad c_i=(2-n_i)w+n_i\hat w.q1∗​=4−β22(A1​−c1​)−β(A2​−c2​)​,Ai​=α−dM​1{ni​≥1},ci​=(2−ni​)w+ni​w^.

The aggregate ex post profit is πb(i dM,j dM)=π1b(i,j)+π2b(i,j)\pi^b(i\,d_M,j\,d_M)=\pi^b_1(i,j)+\pi^b_2(i,j)πb(idM​,jdM​)=π1b​(i,j)+π2b​(i,j). Auditing a supplier with effort xxx costs K1{x>0}+a2x2K\mathbf 1\{x>0\}+\tfrac a2x^2K1{x>0}+2a​x2.

Unilateral auditing. Each buyer audits at most one of his two suppliers. Πib\Pi^b_iΠib​ is buyer BiB_iBi​'s expected profit net of his own audit costs. An equilibrium is a pair of mutual best responses in which, by the paper's tie-breaking rule, a buyer who audits strictly prefers it to not auditing. The effort e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ of eq. (2) is a buyer's optimal effort on his own supplier when the rival does not audit.

Joint auditing. The coalition chooses efforts x=(ec1,ecc,ec2)∈[0,1]3x=(e_{c1},e_{cc},e_{c2})\in[0,1]^3x=(ec1​,ecc​,ec2​)∈[0,1]3 on S1,Sc,S2S_1,S_c,S_2S1​,Sc​,S2​, auditing at most two suppliers, and pays each audited supplier's cost once. The buyers still compete downstream. With Rib(x)R^b_i(x)Rib​(x) the buyers' expected profits excluding audit costs, the coalition's profit is

Πb(x)=R1b(x)+R2b(x)−∑j∈{1,c,2}[K1{ecj>0}+a2ecj2].\Pi^b(x)=R^b_1(x)+R^b_2(x)-\sum_{j\in\{1,c,2\}}\Big[K\mathbf 1\{e_{cj}>0\}+\tfrac a2e_{cj}^2\Big].Πb(x)=R1b​(x)+R2b​(x)−j∈{1,c,2}∑​[K1{ecj​>0}+2a​ecj2​].

The difference of the buyers' profits is ΔΠ=R1b−R2b\Delta\Pi=R^b_1-R^b_2ΔΠ=R1b​−R2b​. The cost shares are Γ1,2=12[total cost±ΔΠ]\Gamma_{1,2}=\tfrac12[\text{total cost}\pm\Delta\Pi]Γ1,2​=21​[total cost±ΔΠ] (eq. (3)). The analysis assumes the scenario

πb(0,0)≥πb(dM,0)≥πb(dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,2dM).\pi^b(0,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,2d_M).πb(0,0)≥πb(dM​,0)≥πb(dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,2dM​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There are thresholds KcL≤KcHK^L_c\le K^H_cKcL​≤KcH​ such that, for every K≥0K\ge0K≥0, an optimal joint plan

{audits S1 and Sc, ΔΠ>0,K<KcL,audits only Sc, ΔΠ=0,KcL≤K<KcH,audits nothing,K≥KcH.\begin{cases}\text{audits } S_1 \text{ and } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi>0, & K<K^L_c,\\ \text{audits only } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi=0, & K^L_c\le K<K^H_c,\\ \text{audits nothing}, & K\ge K^H_c.\end{cases}⎩⎨⎧​audits S1​ and Sc​, ΔΠ>0,audits only Sc​, ΔΠ=0,audits nothing,​K<KcL​,KcL​≤K<KcH​,K≥KcH​.​

The coalition is also stable. At an optimal plan its aggregate profit is at least the buyers' aggregate profit in any unilateral equilibrium. After paying Γi\Gamma_iΓi​, each buyer earns at least his profit in a symmetric unilateral equilibrium.

Milestones

The coalition's profit as a sum of unilateral profits (proof of Lemma OA9). Lemma OA9: ScS_cSc​ beats one independent supplier, and beats no audit for K<K^K<\hat KK<K^. Lemma OA10: ScS_cSc​ with S1S_1S1​ beats S1S_1S1​ with S2S_2S2​. Lemma OA11: S1S_1S1​ with ScS_cSc​ beats ScS_cSc​ alone for K<K~K<\tilde KK<K~. The fair shares (3). The case analysis with KcL=min⁡{K^+K~2,K~}K^L_c=\min\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\tilde K\}KcL​=min{2K^+K~​,K~} and KcH=max⁡{K^+K~2,K^}K^H_c=\max\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\hat K\}KcH​=max{2K^+K~​,K^}. Stability.

Significance

The result separates two effects of downstream competition on responsible sourcing. Under unilateral auditing, a buyer gains nothing private from auditing the shared supplier: the reduction in risk accrues equally to his rival. The joint coalition removes this free-riding. The common supplier is audited whenever anything is, and the Shapley-type split (3) charges the buyer who also has his own supplier audited for the competitive advantage this gives him (Γ1>Γ2\Gamma_1>\Gamma_2Γ1​>Γ2​ exactly when ΔΠ>0\Delta\Pi>0ΔΠ>0). The paper's welfare comparison (Proposition 4) builds on this proposition and on Proposition 2.

The proof in the e-companion argues through four comparisons of candidate plans and short cost-sharing algebra. None of it is machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the model (in particular which costs the coalition pays and what "at most two suppliers" excludes) and checks each comparison. In one place it also corrects the printed claim: the per-firm stability argument is given only for the symmetric unilateral equilibrium, and it does not extend to the asymmetric one (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

All objects are explicit polynomials in the efforts. The difficulty is in the comparisons. Lemmas OA9 and OA10 compare different audit plans through the scenario ordering of aggregate ex post profits, an assumption on the stage-2 closed form that is not implied by the standing conditions. The obvious attempt, comparing first-order conditions, fails because the coalition's profit is discontinuous at zero effort (the fixed cost) and the feasible set is not convex: "at most two of three" is a union of faces of the cube. The thresholds K^\hat KK^, K~\tilde KK~ are differences of maxima, so the case analysis has to handle ties and the boundary K=KcHK=K^H_cK=KcH​ with weak inequalities. Stability needs the unilateral equilibria of Proposition 2, so the full goal reaches into the companion mission's game.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Params holds α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M,e,r,aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a with β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w\le\hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M>0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a>0a>0 and the three positivity conditions of p. 8. Every statement adds β>0\beta>0β>0 (Sec. 4.3 continues the competing case) and the p. 13 scenario as five inequalities between piAgg values. Their arguments count exposed suppliers: πb(2dM,dM)\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)πb(2dM​,dM​) is a label, not a damage of 2dM2d_M2dM​.
  • Expected profits are 8-outcome expectations of the closed-form stage-2 profit. The coalition's profit charges each audited supplier once, and the common supplier's damage probability under a joint audit is r(1−e)(1−ecc)r(1-e)(1-e_{cc})r(1−e)(1−ecc​).
  • Thresholds K^,K~\hat K,\tilde KK^,K~ are the maxima at K=0K=0K=0 written as sSup over [0,1][0,1][0,1] and [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2. At K=0K=0K=0 the profit is a polynomial, so these suprema are attained.
  • "Yields the highest aggregate profit" is read as "some maximizer over the feasible plans has this pattern"; uniqueness is not claimed. ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ is evaluated at that maximizer (its mirror image, which audits S2S_2S2​, has ΔΠ<0\Delta\Pi<0ΔΠ<0).
  • Cost shares use the total cost of the plan. For plans with ec2=0e_{c2}=0ec2​=0 they are the printed formulas (3).
  • Unilateral benchmark. The equilibrium includes the tie-breaking rule of p. 10, and the interior-effort assumption of p. 10 is encoded as e^I<1\hat e_I<1e^I​<1, with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ given by eq. (2).
  • Stability, corrected. Condition (b) of Sec. 4.3 (each firm earns more) is stated against symmetric unilateral equilibria only, the case the paper's proof treats. Against the asymmetric equilibrium, where one buyer audits with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and the other audits nothing, it fails. Take α=10\alpha=10α=10, β=1\beta=1β=1, w=1w=1w=1, w^=3\hat w=3w^=3, dM=12d_M=\tfrac12dM​=21​, e=110e=\tfrac1{10}e=101​, r=1r=1r=1, a=50a=50a=50, K=0.2K=0.2K=0.2: the coalition optimally audits nothing, yet the auditing buyer earns more unilaterally than half of the coalition's profit. Condition (a) is stated against every equilibrium. "Higher" is stated as ≥\ge≥.
  • The goal's thresholds are existential and come before ∀K\forall K∀K. Choosing KcL=KcHK^L_c=K^H_cKcL​=KcH​ does not trivialize it, because the three cases must cover every K≥0K\ge0K≥0. The milestone on part (2) fixes the thresholds explicitly.
  • The source is the authors' SSRN accepted manuscript. Main-text page numbers equal PDF pages, and e-companion page eckkk is PDF page 28+k28+k28+k.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemmas OA9–OA11, which are self-contained polynomial inequalities; existence of maximizers on the non-convex feasible set (upper semicontinuity); and the link to the unilateral equilibria needed for stability.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020; accepted manuscript, SSRN 2889889. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier evasion of a buyer's audit: Implications for motivating supplier social and environmental responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2):184–197, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4):546–554, 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 3: The Mean-Field Equilibrium Strategies Form an O(1/√N)-Nash Equilibrium of the N-Player Liquidation GameResearch Paper

Motivation

A trader who must sell a large position within a fixed horizon faces a trade-off: selling fast moves the price against her (temporary price impact), selling slowly exposes her to price risk. Since Almgren and Chriss, this optimal liquidation problem has been studied as a stochastic control problem with a terminal state constraint: the remaining position must be zero at the horizon TTT. When many traders liquidate at the same time, each trader's sales also depress the price that the others receive (permanent price impact), and the problem becomes a game.

Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911v3) study this game in the mean-field limit. Their §2 constructs a mean-field equilibrium through a singular conditional mean-field FBSDE. Their §3, the subject of this mission, justifies the limit: the strategies computed from the mean field game are an approximate Nash equilibrium of the finite game with NNN traders, with an error of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​. Without such a result, the mean-field equilibrium describes a model nobody plays; with it, the equilibrium is a usable approximation for large but finite markets.

The approximation of NNN-player games by mean field games goes back to Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) and Lasry and Lions (2007); Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51, 2013) proved an εN\varepsilon_NεN​-Nash property for a McKean–Vlasov class with state interaction and a rate N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4). The present game differs in three respects: players interact through their controls (the average trading rate), there is a common noise observed by all, and each player's state must reach zero at time TTT.

Setting

A single probability space carries a one-dimensional Brownian motion W0W^0W0 (the common noise, which drives the benchmark price and is observed by every player), for each player iii a kkk-dimensional Brownian motion WiW^iWi (the private noise), and i.i.d. initial portfolios Xi\mathcal X^iXi with law ν\nuν; all of these are mutually independent. Player iii observes Fi\mathbb F^iFi, Fti=σ(Xi,Ws0,Wsi, s≤t)\mathcal F^i_t=\sigma(\mathcal X^i,W^0_s,W^i_s,\ s\le t)Fti​=σ(Xi,Ws0​,Wsi​, s≤t), and chooses a trading rate ξi\xi^iξi; her position is Xti=Xi−∫0tξsi dsX^i_t=\mathcal X^i-\int_0^t\xi^i_s\,dsXti​=Xi−∫0t​ξsi​ds and must satisfy XTi=0X^i_T=0XTi​=0. Given the profile ξ⃗=(ξ1,…,ξN)\vec\xi=(\xi^1,\dots,\xi^N)ξ​=(ξ1,…,ξN), her conditional cost is

JN,i(ξ⃗)=E[∫0T(κtiN∑j=1NξtjXti+ηti(ξti)2+λti(Xti)2)dt ∣ Xi],J^{N,i}(\vec\xi)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\Big(\frac{\kappa^i_t}{N}\sum_{j=1}^N\xi^j_tX^i_t+\eta^i_t(\xi^i_t)^2+\lambda^i_t(X^i_t)^2\Big)dt\ \Big|\ \mathcal X^i\Big],JN,i(ξ​)=E[∫0T​(Nκti​​j=1∑N​ξtj​Xti​+ηti​(ξti​)2+λti​(Xti​)2)dt ​ Xi],

where κi\kappa^iκi (permanent impact), ηi\eta^iηi (temporary impact) and λi\lambda^iλi (risk aversion) are nonnegative bounded processes. Under Assumption 3.1 they are the same deterministic measurable functionals κ,η,λ\kappa,\eta,\lambdaκ,η,λ of (t,Xi,W⋅∧ti,W⋅∧t0)(t,\mathcal X^i,W^i_{\cdot\wedge t},W^0_{\cdot\wedge t})(t,Xi,W⋅∧ti​,W⋅∧t0​) for every player, so the players are statistically identical.

In the mean field game, the average 1N∑jξj\frac1N\sum_j\xi^jN1​∑j​ξj is replaced by a process μ\muμ adapted to the common-noise filtration F0\mathbb F^0F0, and an equilibrium is a μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​] for the representative player's best response ξ∗\xi^*ξ∗. The paper characterizes it through the FBSDE (2.3),

dXt=−Yt2ηtdt,−dYt=(κt E[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t,X0=X, XT=0,dX_t=-\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}dt,\qquad -dY_t=\Big(\kappa_t\,\mathbb E\Big[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}\Big|\mathcal F^0_t\Big]+2\lambda_tX_t\Big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t,\qquad X_0=\mathcal X,\ X_T=0,dXt​=−2ηt​Yt​​dt,−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​​Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​,X0​=X, XT​=0,

with W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W); the optimal rate is ξ∗=Y/(2η)\xi^*=Y/(2\eta)ξ∗=Y/(2η). Player iii's mean-field strategy ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi)\xi^{*,i}=Y^i/(2\eta^i)ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi) comes from the same FBSDE with her own data.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

For a positive function MMM with ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M, where ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt∣Xi]\psi(\mathcal X^i)=\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt∣Xi], and admissible sets Ai={ξ∈AFi(Xi):E[∫0T∣ξt∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}\mathcal A^i=\{\xi\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb F^i}(\mathcal X^i):\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le M(\mathcal X^i)\}Ai={ξ∈AFi​(Xi):E[∫0T​∣ξt​∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}, there is a function ggg, independent of iii and NNN, with

JN,i(ξ⃗∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+g(Xi)Nfor all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)\le J^{N,i}(\xi^i,\xi^{*,-i})+\frac{g(\mathcal X^i)}{\sqrt N}\qquad\text{for all }N\ge1,\ 1\le i\le N,\ \xi^i\in\mathcal A^i .JN,i(ξ​∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+N​g(Xi)​for all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.

The goal asserts only the shape of the bound, not its constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.2: one measurable map Φ\PhiΦ gives (Xi,Yi,∫0⋅Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0)(X^i,Y^i,\int_0^\cdot Z^i)=\Phi(\mathcal X^i,W^i,W^0)(Xi,Yi,∫0⋅​Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0) for every player, and ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi)\xi^{*,i}=\phi(\mathcal X^i,W^0,W^i)ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi) (3.1).
  2. (3.2): a single μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗,i∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^{*,i}_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗,i​∣Ft0​] for every iii.
  3. (3.3): E∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt≤C\mathbb E\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\le CE∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt≤C uniformly in iii.
  4. (3.5): E[∫0T(μt∗−1N∑jξt∗,j)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2\mathbb E[\int_0^T(\mu^*_t-\frac1N\sum_j\xi^{*,j}_t)^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le 2(M(\mathcal X^i)+(2N-1)C)/N^2E[∫0T​(μt∗​−N1​∑j​ξt∗,j​)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2.
  5. The bounds on I1I_1I1​ and I2I_2I2​ (p. 24): the two differences of conditional costs into which the proof splits JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ⃗∗)J^{N,i}(\xi,\xi^{*,-i})-J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ​∗) are O(1/N)O(1/\sqrt N)O(1/N​).

Significance

The result turns the mean-field equilibrium of §2 into a statement about the finite market: when all NNN traders use their mean-field strategies, a trader who deviates can save at most g(Xi)/Ng(\mathcal X^i)/\sqrt Ng(Xi)/N​ in conditional expected cost. The error bound depends on the trader's own initial position only through M(Xi)M(\mathcal X^i)M(Xi), and the rate 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ is dimension-free, in contrast with the N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4) rates of state-interaction games, because the interaction runs through the empirical mean of the controls rather than through an empirical measure.

The paper's proof of Theorem 3.3 is short but rests on several facts it states without proof: the Yamada–Watanabe-type Lemma 3.2 (whose proof is referred to other papers), the identification (3.2) of a common conditional mean, and the moment bound (3.3) attributed to Proposition 2.8. This mission makes each of these a separate machine-checkable statement. As far as we know, none of these results, nor any optimal-liquidation mean field game, has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The estimate (3.5) is a law-of-large-numbers bound for the average of NNN processes that are not independent: all of them depend on the common noise W0W^0W0. The obvious argument, expanding the square and using independence, fails as stated; the cross terms vanish only conditionally on W0W^0W0, and only once one knows that every ξ∗,j\xi^{*,j}ξ∗,j is the same measurable functional of (Xj,W0,Wj)(\mathcal X^j,W^0,W^j)(Xj,W0,Wj). That is Lemma 3.2, a Yamada–Watanabe-type statement for a singular FBSDE with a conditional mean-field term, which needs strong uniqueness of the FBSDE in the class Hα×L2×L2([0,T−])\mathcal H_\alpha\times L^2\times L^2([0,T-])Hα​×L2×L2([0,T−]) and is the main technical step. The terminal constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 makes the backward component singular at TTT (YYY blows up like X/(T−t)X/(T-t)X/(T−t)), so standard Lipschitz FBSDE theory does not apply. Finally, the deviation ξ\xiξ is constrained only through a conditional second-moment bound MMM, and the comparison with the mean-field cost uses the optimality of ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i (Proposition 2.9) against μ∗\mu^*μ∗.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated on one probability space carrying all players, with players indexed by N\mathbb NN; the NNN-player game uses players i<Ni<Ni<N (the paper's 1,…,N1,\dots,N1,…,N, shifted by one). Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ and the processes are real valued. Choices made explicit:

  • Assumption 2.3 for every player is a hypothesis of every theorem: the paper states it "throughout" (p. 8), and the proof of Theorem 3.3 uses Propositions 2.8 and 2.9, which need it. Its constants κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega[0,T]×Ω; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞1/\lambda,1/\eta\in L^\infty1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
  • The equilibrium processes (Xi,Yi,Zi)(X^i,Y^i,Z^i)(Xi,Yi,Zi) are hypotheses: solutions of (2.3) for player iii's data in the class of Theorem 2.4. ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i is defined as Yi/(2ηi)Y^i/(2\eta^i)Yi/(2ηi), never through ϕ\phiϕ.
  • Conditioning on Xi=xi\mathcal X^i=x^iXi=xi is conditioning on σ(Xi)\sigma(\mathcal X^i)σ(Xi); every conclusion holds almost surely, i.e. for ν\nuν-a.e. xix^ixi. "ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M" is the a.s. inequality of conditional second moments, and MMM is assumed measurable.
  • ggg is quantified before NNN and iii. A statement in which ggg may depend on NNN is trivially true and is ruled out.
  • Filtrations are augmented by null sets. Each conditional expectation E[ ⋅∣Ft0]\mathbb E[\,\cdot\mid\mathcal F^0_t]E[⋅∣Ft0​] is evaluated through a progressive version of an integrable argument. BSDEs on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T.
  • Lemma 3.2's path spaces carry the product σ-algebra; its identities hold for each ttt almost surely.
  • The paper's bound on I2I_2I2​ is stated for ∣I2∣|I_2|∣I2​∣, which is what its Cauchy–Schwarz step gives and what the proof needs.

The development reuses the Itô-calculus definitions of Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, Itô integrals, BSDEs). Contributions useful beyond this mission: conditional independence given a common noise for functionals of independent inputs, a Yamada–Watanabe argument for FBSDEs, and conditional Cauchy–Schwarz bounds for time integrals. Proofs of any milestone, and of the facts from §2 they rely on, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • R. Almgren, N. Chriss, Optimal execution of portfolio transactions, J. Risk 3(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2001.041
  • M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains I: Under Downstream Competition No Buyer Audits the Common Supplier in Any EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands are routinely held responsible for the labour and environmental practices of their suppliers. A brand that is linked in public to a non-compliant supplier loses consumer willingness to pay, and firms answer this risk by auditing their suppliers. Supply networks are not trees, however: one supplier often serves several competing brands. Chen, Qi and Dawande (SSRN 2889889, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020) ask how the position of a supplier in such a network, and in particular its centrality (the number of buyers it serves), affects which suppliers get audited when buyers decide on their own, and when they audit jointly.

This mission formalizes the paper's answer for unilateral auditing by competing buyers (Sec. 4.2, Proposition 2). A companion mission treats joint auditing (Proposition 3).

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: an independent supplier SiS_iSi​ for each buyer BiB_iBi​, and a common supplier ScS_cSc​ that serves both. Each supplier complies with social-responsibility standards with probability e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1). In stage 1, buyer BiB_iBi​ chooses an auditing effort eii∈[0,1]e_{ii} \in [0,1]eii​∈[0,1] on SiS_iSi​ and eic∈[0,1]e_{ic} \in [0,1]eic​∈[0,1] on ScS_cSc​, and audits at most one of them: eii eic=0e_{ii}\,e_{ic} = 0eii​eic​=0. Auditing a supplier with effort x>0x > 0x>0 costs K+a2x2K + \tfrac a2 x^2K+2a​x2, with a fixed cost K≥0K \ge 0K≥0 and a>0a > 0a>0; effort 000 means no audit and costs nothing.

A non-compliant supplier that passes the audits is discovered in public with probability r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1]. Hence SiS_iSi​ causes damage to BiB_iBi​ with probability λI(eii)=r(1−e)(1−eii)\lambda_I(e_{ii}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{ii})λI​(eii​)=r(1−e)(1−eii​), and ScS_cSc​ causes damage to both buyers with probability λC(e1c,e2c)=r(1−e)(1−e1c)(1−e2c)\lambda_C(e_{1c},e_{2c}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{1c})(1-e_{2c})λC​(e1c​,e2c​)=r(1−e)(1−e1c​)(1−e2c​), independently. A buyer with at least one exposed supplier suffers the MWTP damage dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0: his demand intercept drops from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha - d_Mα−dM​. Each exposed supplier is then paid w^≥w\hat w \ge ww^≥w per unit instead of www, so a buyer with n∈{0,1,2}n \in \{0,1,2\}n∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers has unit cost (2−n)w+nw^(2-n)w + n\hat w(2−n)w+nw^.

In stage 2 the buyers compete in quantities with inverse demands pi=Ai−qi−βqi′p_i = A_i - q_i - \beta q_{i'}pi​=Ai​−qi​−βqi′​, β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] (Dixit 1979; Singh and Vives 1984). Its equilibrium profit for B1B_1B1​ is π1b(n1,n2)=q1∗(n1,n2)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2) = q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2, in closed form (Lemma 1). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s ex ante expected profit Π1b(e11,e1c;e22,e2c)\Pi^b_1(e_{11},e_{1c};e_{22},e_{2c})Π1b​(e11​,e1c​;e22​,e2c​) is the expectation of π1b\pi^b_1π1b​ over the eight damage outcomes, minus his audit costs; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is symmetric. Three conditions on (α,β,w,w^,dM)(\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M)(α,β,w,w^,dM​) (p. 8) make all stage-2 quantities positive.

An equilibrium is a profile (s1,s2)(s_1,s_2)(s1​,s2​), si=(eii,eic)s_i = (e_{ii},e_{ic})si​=(eii​,eic​), in which each buyer's strategy is a best response to the other's, with the tie-breaking rule of p. 10: a buyer who is indifferent between auditing and not auditing does not audit. Two explicit efforts, eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ (eq. (1)) and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ (eq. (2)), are rational functions of the parameters; e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ is a buyer's optimal effort on his independent supplier when the rival audits nobody, and eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ is the symmetric solution when both audit their independent suppliers.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

Assume β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] and e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1. There exist KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ such that for every K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, writing A=((eI∗,0),(eI∗,0))A = ((e^*_I,0),(e^*_I,0))A=((eI∗​,0),(eI∗​,0)), B1=((e^I,0),(0,0))B_1 = ((\hat e_I,0),(0,0))B1​=((e^I​,0),(0,0)), B2=((0,0),(e^I,0))B_2 = ((0,0),(\hat e_I,0))B2​=((0,0),(e^I​,0)), N=((0,0),(0,0))N = ((0,0),(0,0))N=((0,0),(0,0)),

EqSet(K)={{A}K<KuL,{A,B1,B2}KuL≤K<KuM,{B1,B2}KuM≤K<KuH,{N}K≥KuH.\mathrm{EqSet}(K) = \begin{cases} \{A\} & K < K^L_u,\\ \{A, B_1, B_2\} & K^L_u \le K < K^M_u,\\ \{B_1, B_2\} & K^M_u \le K < K^H_u,\\ \{N\} & K \ge K^H_u. \end{cases}EqSet(K)=⎩⎨⎧​{A}{A,B1​,B2​}{B1​,B2​}{N}​K<KuL​,KuL​≤K<KuM​,KuM​≤K<KuH​,K≥KuH​.​

In every equilibrium the common supplier receives zero effort.

Milestones

Lemma 1 (stage-2 equilibrium), the OA.2 expected-profit display, the best-response function (OA-9) with eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ as its values, the dominance inequality (OA-11), Lemmas OA5 and OA6 (the two kinds of auditing equilibria and their threshold ranges), the monotonicity facts (OA-14)–(OA-15), Lemma OA7 (the order of the thresholds) and Lemma OA8 (no equilibrium audits ScS_cSc​). The thresholds of the milestones are the explicit ones the proof defines in (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13).

Significance

The result separates network position from competition. Without downstream competition (β=0\beta = 0β=0, Proposition 1) there is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium in which one buyer audits the common supplier. With competition, Proposition 2 shows that the common supplier, the most central and therefore the most consequential source of risk, is never audited: auditing it would also protect the rival, who free-rides. This inefficiency is what motivates the paper's analysis of joint auditing (Proposition 3) and of social welfare (Proposition 4).

The result is proved in the paper, partly by omission: the e-companion leaves the proof of Lemma OA8 and the case K≥KuHK \ge K^H_uK≥KuH​ to the reader. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof would give a complete case analysis of a two-stage game with a discontinuous fixed cost, a constrained strategy set and a tie-breaking rule, and would check the paper's closed forms, several of which are printed with small slips.

Difficulty

The first-order conditions alone do not determine the equilibria. The fixed cost makes each buyer's payoff discontinuous at zero effort, so every candidate must be compared with no audit, and the best response is a choice among three regimes (audit SiS_iSi​, audit ScS_cSc​, audit nobody). Uniqueness claims therefore require excluding every profile in the constrained strategy set, including those where a buyer audits the common supplier, for which the paper gives no proof. The threshold comparisons KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ rest on monotonicity in the rival's effort, and the expected profit is multilinear in the four efforts (plus the quadratic audit costs), with coefficients that are differences of squared Cournot quantities whose signs depend on the p. 8 conditions.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace SupplierAudit.Competition. The source is the authors' accepted manuscript on SSRN (2889889); main-text printed pages equal PDF pages, and e-companion page ec kkk is PDF page 28+k28 + k28+k.

  • Parameters. A structure Params carries α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha, \beta, w, \hat w, d_M, e, r, aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a and the standing assumptions β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w \le \hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a > 0a>0 and the three conditions of p. 8. The theorems add β>0\beta > 0β>0 (competition, Sec. 4.2). KKK is a separate real argument and the goal quantifies over K≥0K \ge 0K≥0.
  • Stage 2. The general linear differentiated Cournot duopoly is its own definition (CournotDuopoly). The model's stage-2 profit is the closed form q1∗(n1,n2)2q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2 for all (n1,n2)(n_1,n_2)(n1​,n2​); Lemma 1 states that it is the game's unique equilibrium.
  • Expected profit. Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ is the eight-outcome expectation; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ with the roles exchanged. The grouped display of OA.2 is a milestone.
  • Strategies and equilibrium. Strategies are pairs in [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2 with product zero. Equilibria include the strict-improvement tie-breaking rule of p. 10; without it the goal is false at K=KuMK = K^M_uK=KuM​ and K=KuHK = K^H_uK=KuH​.
  • Interior efforts. The paper assumes equilibrium efforts lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) (p. 10; sufficient conditions in OA.1 are not given in closed form). This is encoded as the single hypothesis e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1 on the explicit formula (2), never as a hypothesis on an unknown equilibrium variable.
  • Thresholds. The goal states the thresholds existentially, as printed, with their order as part of the conclusion; the milestones use the explicit (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13). eI∗e^*_IeI∗​, e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and e11∗(⋅)e^*_{11}(\cdot)e11∗​(⋅) are the printed formulas, not argmaxes.
  • Printed slips, corrected. In (OA-11) the second prefactor should be β(w^−w)\beta(\hat w - w)β(w^−w); only the strict inequality is stated. The printed derivative of e11∗e^*_{11}e11∗​ in the proof of Lemma OA7 lacks a factor 1/a1/a1/a; only monotonicity is stated.

A formalization in which equilibrium is plain Nash, efforts range over all of R\mathbb RR, a buyer may audit both suppliers, or "interior" is a hypothesis on the equilibrium efforts themselves would state a different (and in places false or vacuous) theorem; these are ruled out by the definitions above. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is reusable infrastructure for linear Cournot duopolies and for finite expectations over independent Bernoulli events.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020 (accepted manuscript). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • A. Dixit, A Model of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003317
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier Evasion of a Buyer's Audit: Implications for Motivating Supplier Social and Environmental Responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
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Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 3: Distributed Controls from a Mean Field Game Solution Form an ε_n-Nash Equilibrium of the n-Player Game, ε_n → 0Research Paper

Why approximate Nash equilibria of finite games

Mean field games (MFGs) were introduced by Lasry and Lions (Jpn. J. Math. 2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (Commun. Inf. Syst. 2006) as limits of stochastic differential games with many symmetric players whose interaction runs through the empirical distribution of their states. An MFG is a fixed point problem for one representative player facing a flow of measures, and it is much easier to analyse than an nnn-player game. The justification for studying it is a converse statement: a solution of the MFG should yield strategies that are nearly optimal for every player of the finite game when nnn is large. Results of this type were proved by Huang, Malhamé and Caines for linear-quadratic models and by Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2013) in the strong formulation with Lipschitz data.

Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152v2; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015) set up MFGs in a weak formulation: controls change the law of the state through a Girsanov density instead of entering the state equation. This allows measurable, path-dependent data and controls that need only be progressively measurable. Their Theorem 4.2 is the finite-player approximation in this generality. This mission formalizes it.

Setting

Let C=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm, and fix a measurable weight ψ:C→[1,∞)\psi:\mathcal C\to[1,\infty)ψ:C→[1,∞). Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C) is the set of probability measures μ\muμ on C\mathcal CC with ∫ψ dμ<∞\int\psi\,d\mu<\infty∫ψdμ<∞, carrying the topology τψ\tau_\psiτψ​: the weakest topology making μ↦∫f dμ\mu\mapsto\int f\,d\muμ↦∫fdμ continuous for every measurable fff with ∣f∣≤c ψ|f|\le c\,\psi∣f∣≤cψ. The control set AAA is a compact convex subset of a normed space, and P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) carries the weak topology.

The data are a volatility σ(t,x)\sigma(t,x)σ(t,x), a drift b(t,x,μ,a)b(t,x,\mu,a)b(t,x,μ,a), a running reward f(t,x,μ,q,a)f(t,x,\mu,q,a)f(t,x,μ,q,a) and a terminal reward g(x,μ)g(x,\mu)g(x,μ), where x∈Cx\in\mathcal Cx∈C is a whole path, μ∈Pψ(C)\mu\in\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)μ∈Pψ​(C) and q∈P(A)q\in\mathcal P(A)q∈P(A). On a probability space with an initial value ξ∼λ0\xi\sim\lambda_0ξ∼λ0​ and an independent Wiener process WWW, let XXX solve dXt=σ(t,X) dWtdX_t=\sigma(t,X)\,dW_tdXt​=σ(t,X)dWt​, X0=ξX_0=\xiX0​=ξ. A control α\alphaα (an AAA-valued progressive process) and a measure μ\muμ define a new probability Pμ,αP^{\mu,\alpha}Pμ,α with density

dPμ,αdP=E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt) dWt)T,\frac{dP^{\mu,\alpha}}{dP}=\mathcal E\Big(\int_0^\cdot\sigma^{-1}b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)\,dW_t\Big)_T,dPdPμ,α​=E(∫0⋅​σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt​)dWt​)T​,

under which XXX has drift b(t,X,μ,αt)b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)b(t,X,μ,αt​). The reward is Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0Tf(t,X,μ,qt,αt) dt+g(X,μ)]J^{\mu,q}(\alpha)=\mathbb E^{\mu,\alpha}[\int_0^Tf(t,X,\mu,q_t,\alpha_t)\,dt+g(X,\mu)]Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0T​f(t,X,μ,qt​,αt​)dt+g(X,μ)]. A pair (μ^,q^)(\hat\mu,\hat q)(μ^​,q^​) is a solution of the MFG (Definition 3.4) if some α^\hat\alphaα^ maximizes Jμ^,q^J^{\hat\mu,\hat q}Jμ^​,q^​ and reproduces the input: Pμ^,α^∘X−1=μ^P^{\hat\mu,\hat\alpha}\circ X^{-1}=\hat\muPμ^​,α^∘X−1=μ^​ and Pμ^,α^∘α^t−1=q^tP^{\hat\mu,\hat\alpha}\circ\hat\alpha_t^{-1}=\hat q_tPμ^​,α^∘α^t−1​=q^​t​ for a.e. ttt. Under the standing assumptions the optimal control is a function α^(t,X)\hat\alpha(t,X)α^(t,X) of the path, the closed-loop control.

The nnn-player game. On a probability space with independent Wiener processes WiW^iWi and i.i.d. initial values ξi∼λ0\xi^i\sim\lambda_0ξi∼λ0​, let XiX^iXi solve dXti=b(t,Xi,α^(t,Xi)) dt+σ(t,Xi) dWtidX^i_t=b(t,X^i,\hat\alpha(t,X^i))\,dt+\sigma(t,X^i)\,dW^i_tdXti​=b(t,Xi,α^(t,Xi))dt+σ(t,Xi)dWti​ (the drift has no mean field term under (F.1)). The distributed controls are αti=α^(t,Xi)\alpha^i_t=\hat\alpha(t,X^i)αti​=α^(t,Xi): each player uses only their own state. A deviation β∈An\beta\in\mathbb A_nβ∈An​ is any process that is progressively measurable for the filtration Fn\mathbb F^nFn of all nnn states (full information). A profile β=(β1,…,βn)\beta=(\beta^1,\dots,\beta^n)β=(β1,…,βn) changes the probability to Pn(β)P_n(\beta)Pn​(β), with density the Doléans exponential of ∑i∫(σ−1b(t,Xi,βti)−σ−1b(t,Xi,αti)) dWti\sum_i\int(\sigma^{-1}b(t,X^i,\beta^i_t)-\sigma^{-1}b(t,X^i,\alpha^i_t))\,dW^i_t∑i​∫(σ−1b(t,Xi,βti​)−σ−1b(t,Xi,αti​))dWti​. Player iii then receives

Jn,i(β)=EPn(β)[∫0Tf(t,Xi,μn,qn(βt),βti) dt+g(Xi,μn)],J_{n,i}(\beta)=\mathbb E^{P_n(\beta)}\Big[\int_0^Tf\big(t,X^i,\mu^n,q^n(\beta_t),\beta^i_t\big)\,dt+g(X^i,\mu^n)\Big],Jn,i​(β)=EPn​(β)[∫0T​f(t,Xi,μn,qn(βt​),βti​)dt+g(Xi,μn)],

with μn=1n∑jδXj\mu^n=\frac1n\sum_j\delta_{X^j}μn=n1​∑j​δXj​ and qn(βt)=1n∑jδβtjq^n(\beta_t)=\frac1n\sum_j\delta_{\beta^j_t}qn(βt​)=n1​∑j​δβtj​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 13)

Under (S), (C) and (F), there is a sequence ϵn≥0\epsilon_n\ge0ϵn​≥0, ϵn→0\epsilon_n\to0ϵn​→0, such that for all n≥1n\ge1n≥1, 1≤i≤n1\le i\le n1≤i≤n and β∈An\beta\in\mathbb A_nβ∈An​,

Jn,i(α1,…,αi−1,β,αi+1,…,αn)≤Jn,i(α1,…,αn)+ϵn.J_{n,i}(\alpha^1,\dots,\alpha^{i-1},\beta,\alpha^{i+1},\dots,\alpha^n)\le J_{n,i}(\alpha^1,\dots,\alpha^n)+\epsilon_n.Jn,i​(α1,…,αi−1,β,αi+1,…,αn)≤Jn,i​(α1,…,αn)+ϵn​.

No rate is claimed; the theorem asserts only that the gain from deviating vanishes uniformly over players and deviations.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5.6 (p. 16): for compact KKK, joint continuity of G:E×K→RG:E\times K\to\mathbb RG:E×K→R at {x0}×K\{x_0\}\times K{x0​}×K is equivalent to continuity of G(x0,⋅)G(x_0,\cdot)G(x0​,⋅) together with continuity at x0x_0x0​ of x↦sup⁡y∈K∣G(x,y)−G(x0,y)∣x\mapsto\sup_{y\in K}|G(x,y)-G(x_0,y)|x↦supy∈K​∣G(x,y)−G(x0​,y)∣.
  2. Lemma 8.1 (p. 32): for empirically measurable FFF with ∣F(x,μ)∣≤c(ψ(x)+∫ψ dμ)|F(x,\mu)|\le c(\psi(x)+\int\psi\,d\mu)∣F(x,μ)∣≤c(ψ(x)+∫ψdμ) and F(x,⋅)F(x,\cdot)F(x,⋅) continuous at μ^\hat\muμ^​, E∣F(Xi,μn)−F(Xi,μ^)∣p→0\mathbb E|F(X^i,\mu^n)-F(X^i,\hat\mu)|^p\to0E∣F(Xi,μn)−F(Xi,μ^​)∣p→0 for p∈[1,2)p\in[1,2)p∈[1,2).
  3. The LpL^pLp bound (p. 33): {dPn(βα)/dP:β∈An, n≥1}\{dP_n(\beta^\alpha)/dP:\beta\in\mathbb A_n,\ n\ge1\}{dPn​(βα)/dP:β∈An​, n≥1} is bounded in LpL^pLp for each p≥1p\ge1p≥1, where βα=(β,α2,…,αn)\beta^\alpha=(\beta,\alpha^2,\dots,\alpha^n)βα=(β,α2,…,αn).
  4. Lemma 8.2 (p. 32): sup⁡β∈An∣Jn,1(βα)−Jn′(β)∣→0\sup_{\beta\in\mathbb A_n}|J_{n,1}(\beta^\alpha)-J'_n(\beta)|\to0supβ∈An​​∣Jn,1​(βα)−Jn′​(β)∣→0, where Jn′(β)=EPn(βα)[∫0Tf(t,X1,μ^,q^t,βt) dt+g(X1,μ^)]J'_n(\beta)=\mathbb E^{P_n(\beta^\alpha)}[\int_0^Tf(t,X^1,\hat\mu,\hat q_t,\beta_t)\,dt+g(X^1,\hat\mu)]Jn′​(β)=EPn​(βα)[∫0T​f(t,X1,μ^​,q^​t​,βt​)dt+g(X1,μ^​)].
  5. Lemma 8.3 (p. 33): Jn′(α1)≥Jn′(β)J'_n(\alpha^1)\ge J'_n(\beta)Jn′​(α1)≥Jn′​(β) for every β∈An\beta\in\mathbb A_nβ∈An​.

Significance

Theorem 4.2 states the sense in which an MFG solution solves the finite game. It covers path-dependent and merely measurable coefficients, interaction through the law of the controls, and full-information deviations against distributed strategies. In the paper it underlies the applications of §6: the price impact model, where Proposition 6.1 adds the rate C/nC/\sqrt nC/n​, and the flocking model. The result is qualitative: it gives no rate in general.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked proof of it or of its lemmas exists on the platform. The mission produces a formal statement layer for weak-formulation MFGs: path space, Pψ\mathcal P_\psiPψ​ with τψ\tau_\psiτψ​, Girsanov densities over Itô versions, Definition 3.4, and the nnn-player game. It then asks for the formal proof of the theorem. Missions 1 and 2 of this series (existence and uniqueness of MFG solutions) use the same model encoding. The strong-formulation result of Carmona and Delarue is a separate statement with a separate model and is not part of this mission.

Difficulty

The obvious route replaces μn\mu^nμn by μ^\hat\muμ^​ and qn(βt)q^n(\beta_t)qn(βt​) by q^t\hat q_tq^​t​ in Jn,iJ_{n,i}Jn,i​ and appeals to the law of large numbers. This fails for two reasons. First, the expectation is taken under Pn(β)P_n(\beta)Pn​(β), which depends on the deviation β\betaβ, and β\betaβ may depend on all players' states. The convergence therefore has to be uniform over a class of measures and requires uniform integrability of the densities. Second, τψ\tau_\psiτψ​ is neither metrizable nor separable. Continuity in μ\muμ does not reduce to sequences, and dominated convergence does not hold for nets, so the almost sure convergence of empirical measures does not by itself transfer to the rewards. The remaining step asks whether full information helps the deviating player against the limiting environment. It is not a direct consequence of the optimality of α^\hat\alphaα^ in the mean field problem, which is posed over a smaller filtration.

Formalization scope

  • Paths and time. States are Fin d → ℝ. C\mathcal CC is C(Set.Icc 0 T, Fin d → ℝ) with its Borel σ-field. Time is ℝ≥0; only [0,T][0,T][0,T] matters.
  • Measures and topologies. Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C) is a structure carrying τψ\tau_\psiτψ​ as its only topology. P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) is Mathlib's ProbabilityMeasure A with the weak topology and its Borel σ-field. Progressive measurability uses the canonical filtration on C\mathcal CC.
  • Base space. It is abstract: any probability space with ξ\xiξ and an independent Brownian motion WWW. The canonical space is an instance. Filtrations are augmented by the measurable null sets.
  • Stochastic integrals. All stochastic integrals come from the published Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic L2L^2L2 Itô layer. "Strong solution" therefore includes square integrability, E∫0T∥σ(t,X)∥2dt<∞\mathbb E\int_0^T\|\sigma(t,X)\|^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​∥σ(t,X)∥2dt<∞ and sup⁡tE∣Xt−ξ∣2<∞\sup_t\mathbb E|X_t-\xi|^2<\inftysupt​E∣Xt​−ξ∣2<∞.
  • Assumptions (S). Nonsingularity of σ\sigmaσ is encoded as invertibility of det⁡σ\det\sigmadetσ. The "increasing" ρ\rhoρ of (S.4) is encoded as monotone.
  • Densities and values. A density is a relation over versions of the Itô integrals. Every statement asserts that a version exists and holds for every version, so no statement holds because the set of versions is empty. Jn,iJ_{n,i}Jn,i​ and Jn′J'_nJn′​ are computed as EP[D(⋯ )]\mathbb E^P[D(\cdots)]EP[D(⋯)] for a version DDD. Suprema over An\mathbb A_nAn​ are unfolded into ∀ε ∃N\forall\varepsilon\,\exists N∀ε∃N form, never written as real ⨆.
  • Players. Players are indexed from 000, so player 1 is index 000.
  • Hypotheses. (S), (C), (F), the fixed solution with its closed-loop control and the game space are bundled into one structure.

Two readings of the goal would make it trivial, and the statement excludes both. If ϵ\epsilonϵ were allowed to depend on iii or β\betaβ, the bound would carry no content. If the deviation were evaluated under the undeviated measure PPP instead of Pn(β)P_n(\beta)Pn​(β), the game would be a different one. (F.4) is genuine continuity, not the sequential continuity of (E).

A complete development needs:

  • the strong law of large numbers for i.i.d. path-valued variables tested against BψB_\psiBψ​ functions;
  • LpL^pLp bounds for Doléans exponentials of bounded integrands;
  • Girsanov's theorem for the L2L^2L2 Itô layer;
  • comparison for BSDEs (Pardoux–Peng).

The Girsanov and BSDE comparison results are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions, as are proofs of Lemma 5.6 and of the LpL^pLp bound.

Selected references

  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, arXiv:1307.1152v2, 2014; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152v2, https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1020
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
  • É. Pardoux, S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems Control Lett. 14, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

From the Master Equation to Mean Field Game Limit Theory: Large Deviations and Concentration of Measure 2: Nash Equilibrium Empirical Measure Flows Satisfy a Weak LDP Under Common NoiseResearch Paper

Motivation

A mean field game describes the Nash equilibria of nnn symmetric players whose states interact only through their empirical distribution, in the limit n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. The law of large numbers for the equilibria — convergence of the empirical measure of the nnn-player equilibrium to the mean field equilibrium — was proved in the diffusion setting by Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions through the master equation (arXiv:1509.02505), and refined by Delarue, Lacker and Ramanan into fluctuation estimates and a central limit theorem in a companion paper (Electron. J. Probab. 2019). The next question is the size of rare deviations: the probability that the nnn-player equilibrium empirical measure flow stays near a flow different from the mean field limit decays exponentially in nnn, and the exponent is a rate function. Delarue, Lacker and Ramanan (arXiv:1804.08550) prove such a large deviation principle (LDP), including the case of a common noise affecting all players, for which no LDP was previously known even for McKean–Vlasov particle systems.

Timeline. Dawson and Gärtner (1987) proved the LDP for the empirical measure flows of weakly interacting diffusions without common noise, with time-independent coefficients and deterministic initial states, using the action functional adopted here. Budhiraja, Dupuis and Fischer (Ann. Probab. 2012) gave a weak-convergence proof for the empirical measure of paths. For mean field games, master-equation methods gave limit theorems, including LDPs, for finite state spaces without common noise (Cecchin–Fischer, arXiv:1704.00984; Cecchin–Pelino, arXiv:1707.01819; Bayraktar–Cohen, arXiv:1707.02648), and Lacker and Ramanan proved an LDP for static games (arXiv:1702.02113). The present paper (arXiv v1, 2018; Ann. Probab. 2020) treats diffusion-based games, with common noise.

Setting

On a filtered probability space (Ω,F,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,F,P) live a d0d_0d0​-dimensional Brownian motion WWW (the common noise), independent ddd-dimensional Brownian motions B1,B2,…B^1,B^2,\dotsB1,B2,…, and i.i.d. initial states X01,X02,…X^1_0,X^2_0,\dotsX01​,X02​,… with law μ0\mu_0μ0​. The whole initial-state family is independent of the joint noise family, as specified for (6.1). Player iii of nnn controls

dXti=b(Xti,mXtn,αti) dt+σ dBti+σ0 dWt,mxn=1n∑i=1nδxi,dX^i_t=b(X^i_t,m^n_{\boldsymbol X_t},\alpha^i_t)\,dt+\sigma\,dB^i_t+\sigma_0\,dW_t,\qquad m^n_{\boldsymbol x}=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\delta_{x_i},dXti​=b(Xti​,mXt​n​,αti​)dt+σdBti​+σ0​dWt​,mxn​=n1​i=1∑n​δxi​​,

with running cost fff and terminal cost ggg. With the Hamiltonian H(x,m,y)=inf⁡a[b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a)]H(x,m,y)=\inf_a[b(x,m,a)\cdot y+f(x,m,a)]H(x,m,y)=infa​[b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a)], its minimizer α^\hat\alphaα^ and b^(x,m,y)=b(x,m,α^(x,m,y))\hat b(x,m,y)=b(x,m,\hat\alpha(x,m,y))b^(x,m,y)=b(x,m,α^(x,m,y)), a classical solution (vn,i)i(v^{n,i})_i(vn,i)i​ of the Nash system (2.6) gives the equilibrium states

dXti=b^(Xti,mXtn,Dxivn,i(t,Xt))dt+σ dBti+σ0 dWt.(2.7)dX^i_t=\hat b\big(X^i_t,m^n_{\boldsymbol X_t},D_{x_i}v^{n,i}(t,\boldsymbol X_t)\big)dt+\sigma\,dB^i_t+\sigma_0\,dW_t. \qquad (2.7)dXti​=b^(Xti​,mXt​n​,Dxi​​vn,i(t,Xt​))dt+σdBti​+σ0​dWt​.(2.7)

The master equation (2.8) is a PDE for U(t,x,m)U(t,x,m)U(t,x,m) on [0,T]×Rd×P2(Rd)[0,T]\times\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal P^2(\mathbb R^d)[0,T]×Rd×P2(Rd) involving derivatives in the measure argument. Assumption A asks for Lipschitz b^\hat bb^ (with exponent p∗∈[1,2]p^*\in[1,2]p∗∈[1,2] for the Wasserstein metric), non-degenerate σ\sigmaσ, p′>4p'>4p′>4 moments of μ0\mu_0μ0​, classical solutions of the Nash systems, and a classical solution UUU of the master equation with bounded derivatives; B or B′ controls f^\hat ff^​.

The state space is C([0,T];P1(Rd))C([0,T];\mathcal P^1(\mathbb R^d))C([0,T];P1(Rd)): flows ν=(νt)\nu=(\nu_t)ν=(νt​) of probability measures with finite first moment, continuous for the 1-Wasserstein distance W1\mathcal W_1W1​, with the uniform metric sup⁡tW1(νt,νt′)\sup_t\mathcal W_1(\nu_t,\nu'_t)supt​W1​(νt​,νt′​). The rate function uses the drift b~(t,x,m)=b^(x,m,DxU(t,x,m))\tilde b(t,x,m)=\hat b(x,m,D_xU(t,x,m))b~(t,x,m)=b^(x,m,Dx​U(t,x,m)) and the Dawson–Gärtner action functional

I(ν)=12∫0T∥ν˙t−Lt,νt∗νt∥νt2 dt,Lt,mφ=12Tr[σσ⊤D2φ]+Dφ⋅b~(t,⋅,m),I(\nu)=\frac12\int_0^T\big\|\dot\nu_t-\mathcal L^*_{t,\nu_t}\nu_t\big\|^2_{\nu_t}\,dt,\qquad \mathcal L_{t,m}\varphi=\tfrac12\mathrm{Tr}[\sigma\sigma^\top D^2\varphi]+D\varphi\cdot\tilde b(t,\cdot,m),I(ν)=21​∫0T​​ν˙t​−Lt,νt​∗​νt​​νt​2​dt,Lt,m​φ=21​Tr[σσ⊤D2φ]+Dφ⋅b~(t,⋅,m),

with ∥γ∥m2=sup⁡φ⟨γ,φ⟩2/⟨m,∣Dφ∣2⟩\|\gamma\|^2_m=\sup_\varphi\langle\gamma,\varphi\rangle^2/\langle m,|D\varphi|^2\rangle∥γ∥m2​=supφ​⟨γ,φ⟩2/⟨m,∣Dφ∣2⟩ over test functions, and I=∞I=\inftyI=∞ off absolutely continuous paths. With common noise, the drift is shifted along the mean path: I~ϕ\tilde I^\phiI~ϕ is III for the drift b~(t,x+ϕt,m∘τ−ϕt−1)\tilde b(t,x+\phi_t,m\circ\tau^{-1}_{-\phi_t})b~(t,x+ϕt​,m∘τ−ϕt​−1​), τx(z)=z−x\tau_x(z)=z-xτx​(z)=z−x, and

Jσ0(ν)=I~Mb~,ν((νt∘τMtb~,ν−1)t),Mtb~,ν=σΠσ−1σ0σ−1(∫x d(νt−ν0)−∫0t⟨νs,b~(s,⋅,νs)⟩ds),J^{\sigma_0}(\nu)=\tilde I^{\mathbb M^{\tilde b,\nu}}\big((\nu_t\circ\tau^{-1}_{\mathbb M^{\tilde b,\nu}_t})_t\big),\quad \mathbb M^{\tilde b,\nu}_t=\sigma\Pi_{\sigma^{-1}\sigma_0}\sigma^{-1}\Big(\int x\,d(\nu_t-\nu_0)-\int_0^t\langle\nu_s,\tilde b(s,\cdot,\nu_s)\rangle ds\Big),Jσ0​(ν)=I~Mb~,ν((νt​∘τMtb~,ν​−1​)t​),Mtb~,ν​=σΠσ−1σ0​​σ−1(∫xd(νt​−ν0​)−∫0t​⟨νs​,b~(s,⋅,νs​)⟩ds),

where Πσ−1σ0\Pi_{\sigma^{-1}\sigma_0}Πσ−1σ0​​ is the orthogonal projection onto the image of σ−1σ0\sigma^{-1}\sigma_0σ−1σ0​. R\mathcal RR is relative entropy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.10 (weak LDP, common noise allowed)

If p∗=1p^*=1p∗=1, A and B or B′ hold, and ∫eλ∣x∣μ0(dx)<∞\int e^{\lambda|x|}\mu_0(dx)<\infty∫eλ∣x∣μ0​(dx)<∞ for every λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, then for open OOO, compact KKK and closed FFF,

lim inf⁡n1nlog⁡P(mXn∈O)≥−inf⁡O(Jσ0+R(⋅0∣μ0)),lim sup⁡n1nlog⁡P(mXn∈K)≤−inf⁡K(Jσ0+R(⋅0∣μ0)),\liminf_n\tfrac1n\log\mathbb P(m^n_{\boldsymbol X}\in O)\ge-\inf_O\big(J^{\sigma_0}+\mathcal R(\cdot_0|\mu_0)\big),\qquad \limsup_n\tfrac1n\log\mathbb P(m^n_{\boldsymbol X}\in K)\le-\inf_K\big(J^{\sigma_0}+\mathcal R(\cdot_0|\mu_0)\big),nliminf​n1​logP(mXn​∈O)≥−Oinf​(Jσ0​+R(⋅0​∣μ0​)),nlimsup​n1​logP(mXn​∈K)≤−Kinf​(Jσ0​+R(⋅0​∣μ0​)), lim sup⁡n1nlog⁡P(mXn∈F)≤−lim⁡δ↘0inf⁡Fδ(Jσ0+R(⋅0∣μ0)).\limsup_n\tfrac1n\log\mathbb P(m^n_{\boldsymbol X}\in F)\le-\lim_{\delta\searrow0}\inf_{F_\delta}\big(J^{\sigma_0}+\mathcal R(\cdot_0|\mu_0)\big).nlimsup​n1​logP(mXn​∈F)≤−δ↘0lim​Fδ​inf​(Jσ0​+R(⋅0​∣μ0​)).

Milestones

Exponential equivalence of the Nash flows and the McKean–Vlasov particle flows (Corollary 6.1); a weak LDP for the noises and initial states (Proposition 6.15); uniform continuity of the McKean–Vlasov solution map (Lemma 6.16); the shifted action (Lemma 6.4); identification of the contracted entropy (Lemma 6.17); the weak LDP for general weakly interacting systems with common noise (Theorem 6.8) and its transfer to the Nash flows (Theorem 6.13); compactness after centering (Proposition 6.11); removal of the δ\deltaδ-relaxation on compacts, and the full LDP without common noise (Proposition 6.10); explicit forms of Jσ0J^{\sigma_0}Jσ0​ (Proposition 6.5, Theorem 6.6). A companion item states Theorem 3.9: without common noise, a full LDP with the good rate function I(ν)+R(ν0∣μ0)I(\nu)+\mathcal R(\nu_0|\mu_0)I(ν)+R(ν0​∣μ0​).

Significance

The result quantifies how unlikely atypical equilibrium behaviour is in large games: rare macroscopic deviations of the equilibrium empirical measure flow cost exp⁡(−n rate)\exp(-n\,\mathrm{rate})exp(−nrate), and the rate function makes explicit that the common noise moves the mean of the population for free in the directions of the image of σ0\sigma_0σ0​. When σ0≠0\sigma_0\ne0σ0​=0 the rate function has non-compact level sets, which is why the principle is weak and why the closed-set bound carries the δ\deltaδ-relaxation.

The proof transfers the LDP from the McKean–Vlasov particle system to the Nash system through the master equation, a method that applies beyond this model. Nothing in this paper is formalized: there is no large deviation principle, no Wasserstein space of measure flows, no derivative on Wasserstein space and no mean field game on the platform. A formal development produces reusable definitions (weak and full LDPs, the Dawson–Gärtner action functional, C([0,T];P1)C([0,T];\mathcal P^1)C([0,T];P1)) and checked proofs of the contraction and exponential-equivalence steps. The exponential estimate behind Corollary 6.1 (Theorem 4.3) is the companion mission's milestone and rests on estimates quoted from the companion central-limit-theorem paper.

Difficulty

The obvious route — exponential equivalence plus the Dawson–Gärtner LDP for the particle system — fails twice. The particle drift b~\tilde bb~ is time-dependent and the initial states are random, which the classical results do not cover; and with common noise there is no LDP to transfer. The proof instead freezes the noise: it proves a weak LDP for the pair (empirical measure of initial states and idiosyncratic paths, common noise path), which needs Sanov's theorem in the W1\mathcal W_1W1​ topology and the Brownian support theorem, and contracts it through the McKean–Vlasov solution map. The contraction principle requires the rate function to be good, and it is not when σ0≠0\sigma_0\ne0σ0​=0; uniform continuity of the solution map and the δ\deltaδ-enlargements replace goodness.

Formalization scope

Time is [0,T]⊂R≥0[0,T]\subset\mathbb R_{\ge0}[0,T]⊂R≥0​ with T>0T>0T>0; paths are continuous maps on [0,T][0,T][0,T], and solutions of the SDEs are path-valued, adapted, and satisfy the integral equations almost surely. Players are indexed from 000. Probability measures with finite ppp-th moment are guarded by an explicit predicate, and Wp\mathcal W_pWp​ is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance, kept in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Derivatives in xxx, vvv, ttt are genuine derivatives; derivatives in the measure are normalized flat-derivative witnesses. Relative entropy is Mathlib's klDiv. Logarithms of probabilities are in [−∞,∞][-\infty,\infty][−∞,∞]; open, closed and compact sets are those of the uniform W1\mathcal W_1W1​ metric, and lim⁡δ↘0\lim_{\delta\searrow0}limδ↘0​ is a supremum over δ>0\delta>0δ>0. The action functional is an infimum over all distributional time derivatives, with test functions and distributions from Mathlib. The common-noise paths are d0d_0d0​-dimensional.

Standing assumptions are carried explicitly: the filtered space and noises of §2.3, joint independence of initial states and noises from §6.1, Assumption A (with the Borel measurability of b,f,gb,f,gb,f,g), B or B′, p∗=1p^*=1p∗=1 where the paper assumes it, and, for §6, Condition 6.3 and non-degenerate σ\sigmaσ. Two disclosed additions: Theorems 3.9, 3.10 and 6.13 assume b~\tilde bb~ bounded (Condition 6.3(2) requires it; Assumption A does not imply it), and Theorem 6.13 assumes p∗=1p^*=1p∗=1. The solutions of the Nash systems, the master equation and the SDEs are hypotheses; existence is not posed.

A rate function identically 000 or ∞\infty∞, or bounds over a restricted family of sets, would trivialize the statements: the seminorm is a supremum over all test functions, I=∞I=\inftyI=∞ exactly off absolutely continuous flows, and the bounds quantify over every open, compact or closed set. A complete development needs Sanov's theorem in W1\mathcal W_1W1​, the Brownian support theorem, the contraction principle, Dawson–Gärtner's analysis of distribution-valued paths, and stochastic calculus for the particle systems; each of these is reusable, and contributions to any of them are welcome.

Selected references

  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: large deviations and concentration of measure, Ann. Probab. 48(1), 2020; arXiv v1, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.08550
  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: a central limit theorem, Electron. J. Probab. 24, 2019 (reference [19] of the paper).
  • P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The master equation and the convergence problem in mean field games, Ann. Math. Studies 201, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02505
  • D. Dawson, J. Gärtner, Large deviations from the McKean–Vlasov limit for weakly interacting diffusions, Stochastics 20(4), 1987, 247–308.
  • A. Budhiraja, P. Dupuis, M. Fischer, Large deviation properties of weakly interacting processes via weak convergence methods, Ann. Probab. 40(1), 2012, 74–102.
  • R. Wang, X. Wang, L. Wu, Sanov's theorem in the Wasserstein distance: a necessary and sufficient condition, Statist. Probab. Lett. 80(5), 2010, 505–512.
  • A. Cecchin, G. Pelino, Convergence, fluctuations and large deviations for finite state mean field games via the master equation, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.01819
  • D. Lacker, K. Ramanan, Rare Nash equilibria and the price of anarchy in large static games, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.02113
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment III: With a Fixed Cost of Quality, the Encroaching Manufacturer Does Not Differentiate Quality Across ChannelsResearch Paper

Why channel quality matters

A manufacturer that sells through a retailer can also open a direct sales channel. The direct channel lets the manufacturer reach consumers, but it competes with the retailer, whose orders generate wholesale revenue. The manufacturer can further choose whether the two channels carry products of the same quality. These decisions interact because quality changes both consumer demand and the retailer's response. Ha, Long and Nasiry study this interaction in a sequential supply-chain game. Their fixed-quality-cost extension asks what happens when a high-quality design can be converted into a lower-quality variant without paying a separate production cost for each unit (Ha, Long and Nasiry, §6.2).

The main result is specific to this cost regime. With a cost per unit that rises with quality, different products can be attractive across the channels; with the paper's one-time cost of creating quality, Proposition 6(i) asserts equal qualities when the direct channel makes positive sales. This mission targets that fixed-cost proposition in the authors' manuscript, including its game and the reduced-profit claims used in the e-Companion (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36–37).

The sequential market

The market has mass one of consumers, indexed by a taste for quality θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A consumer buying a product of quality v>0v>0v>0 at price ppp receives surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p. The manufacturer offers quality u>0u>0u>0 through her own direct channel and quality tu>0tu>0tu>0 through the retailer. The ratio ttt therefore records which channel has higher quality. The manufacturer pays a fixed cost of quality max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, with k>0k>0k>0, and a direct selling cost c≥0c\ge0c≥0 per unit. The retailer has zero selling cost. Unlike a unit production cost, this fixed cost is paid once and does not scale with either channel's quantity (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 7–8, 20).

The manufacturer first chooses wholesale price www and qualities u,tuu,tuu,tu. After observing them, the retailer chooses its order qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0. The manufacturer observes that order and chooses her direct quantity qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. When 0<t≤10<t\le10<t≤1, market-clearing prices are

pM=u(1−qM−tqR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR).p_M=u(1-q_M-tq_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R).pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​).

When t≥1t\ge1t≥1, the retailer's product has higher quality, and the corresponding prices are

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−uqM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-uq_M.pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The manufacturer receives wholesale revenue plus direct-channel revenue, less the direct selling cost and fixed quality cost. The retailer receives its retail margin times qRq_RqR​. Encroachment means qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 on the equilibrium path, rather than the mere existence of a direct channel (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 8, 11, 15, 36).

Formalization targets

Equal quality under encroachment

For a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ\sigmaσ of the fixed-cost game, the goal is Proposition 6(i):

qM(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.q_M(\sigma)>0\quad\Longrightarrow\quad t(\sigma)=1.qM​(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.

The formal statement assumes c>0c>0c>0. At c=0c=0c=0, the high-direct-quality reduced profit is independent of ttt, so the printed claim fails to force t=1t=1t=1; this is a substantive qualification of the manuscript's standing c≥0c\ge0c≥0 convention. The goal concerns the complete game, with contingent actions at every decision node, rather than only the closed-form optimization problem (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36).

Subgame and optimization claims

The milestone list follows the authors' two quality regimes. The e-Companion gives best responses, wholesale prices, and reduced profits in each regime. In the high-direct-quality regime, Claim 3 concludes that an optimum with positive direct sales has t=1t=1t=1. In the low-direct-quality regime, Lemma 2 concludes that an optimum either has t=1t=1t=1 or lies at no encroachment. The latter alternative is outside the strict encroachment-feasible set used by the Lean milestone. Footnote 2 supplies a one-variable sign inequality used in the analysis of that regime (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

What the result gives

Proposition 6(i) determines the manufacturer's quality choice conditional on active direct sales: both channels carry quality uuu. It narrows the set of equilibrium outcomes that the fixed-cost model can support and distinguishes the role of a one-time design cost from the paper's earlier variable-cost model. The paper states a separate profit comparison in Proposition 6(ii); this mission does not formalize it because the e-Companion omits its proof and the fixed-cost no-encroachment benchmark for that comparison is not stated (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 37).

A complete Lean development would connect the reduced-profit calculations on page 36 to subgame-perfect play in the three-stage game, and establish the optimization claims over their stated feasible sets. The definitions of two-quality inverse demand, contingent strategies, and nodewise optimality are reusable for related channel games. The goal and milestones here are draft statements, without machine-checked proofs of their economic conclusions.

Central difficulty

The manufacturer chooses quality and wholesale price before the retailer's order, yet the direct quantity is chosen only after that order. Consequently, the retailer's payoff depends on the manufacturer's continuation response, and the first-stage choice must account for both later decisions. The reduced profit also changes at t=1t=1t=1, where the higher-quality channel switches. A calculation for one regime alone does not establish the full-game claim. The strict qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 region matters: its boundary represents no encroachment and supports a different alternative in Lemma 2 (Ha, Long and Nasiry, p. 36).

Formalization scope

Lean uses real wholesale prices and qualities, positive uuu and ttt, and nonnegative quantities. Wholesale price has no sign restriction in the manuscript. The market has unit size and the retailer's selling cost is zero. The two inverse-demand expressions are applied to all nonnegative quantities, following the paper's algebraic game model. A profile contains a stage-one action, a retailer order rule for every observed (w,u,t)(w,u,t)(w,u,t), and a direct-quantity rule for every observed (w,u,t,qR)(w,u,t,q_R)(w,u,t,qR​). Subgame perfection requires feasible best replies at every such history, including histories off the equilibrium path. Fixed cost is max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, paid once, while cqMcq_McqM​ is a per-unit selling cost.

The reduced profits ΠHi\Pi_{\mathrm{Hi}}ΠHi​ and ΠLo\Pi_{\mathrm{Lo}}ΠLo​ are used only on their respective open encroachment-feasible domains, where the displayed denominators are positive. Claim 3 is stated for a joint maximizer in (t,u)(t,u)(t,u); keeping uuu fixed while moving to t=1t=1t=1 can leave that feasible set. Lemma 2 excludes the no-encroachment boundary in its Lean statement. Neither reduced profit replaces the full-game payoff in the goal. Contributions that connect the subgame formulas to arbitrary equilibrium profiles, prove the sign inequality, or establish the two optimization results are within scope (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long and J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, authors' manuscript, SSRN 3970373, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. Manuscript. Journal DOI.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment II: Under Quality Differentiation the Direct Channel Carries the High-Quality Product, the Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers while continuing to supply independent retailers, a practice known as supply chain encroachment. The direct channel competes with the retailer for the same consumers, and the conventional advice for easing that conflict is to sell different products in the two channels. Ha, Long and Nasiry (MSOM 18(2), 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) study this advice in a model where the manufacturer chooses product quality herself. This mission formalizes their Section 5: when the manufacturer may offer one quality directly and another through the retailer, which channel gets the better product, when is differentiation worth it, and who gains from encroachment.

The model builds on two lines of work. With exogenous quality, Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that encroachment can benefit both firms, through a lower wholesale price. Vertical differentiation with a convex cost of quality goes back to Mussa and Rosen (JET, 1978), Moorthy (1988) and Motta (1993), where differentiation lets firms segment the market. The paper combines the two and finds that, once quality is endogenous, the retailer never gains.

Setting

A market of size 111 consists of consumers with types θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; a consumer of type θ\thetaθ obtains surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p from a product of quality vvv at price ppp. A manufacturer sells a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 through her direct channel and a product of quality tututu, with quality ratio t>0t>0t>0, through a retailer. Producing one unit of quality vvv costs kv2kv^2kv2 (k>0k>0k>0); every unit sold directly costs a further direct selling cost c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

With quantities qMq_MqM​ (direct) and qRq_RqR​ (retailer), the market-clearing prices are, for t≤1t\le 1t≤1 (direct channel carries the higher quality),

pM=u(1−qM−t qR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR),p_M=u(1-q_M-t\,q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R),pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​),

and for t>1t>1t>1 (retailer carries the higher quality)

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−u qM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-u\,q_M .pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The profits are ΠR=(pR−w)qR\Pi_R=(p_R-w)q_RΠR​=(pR​−w)qR​ and ΠM=(w−k(tu)2)qR+(pM−c−ku2)qM\Pi_M=(w-k(tu)^2)q_R+(p_M-c-ku^2)q_MΠM​=(w−k(tu)2)qR​+(pM​−c−ku2)qM​.

The game has three stages: (i) the manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www, the quality uuu and the ratio ttt; (ii) the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0; (iii) the manufacturer chooses qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. Solutions are subgame-perfect equilibria. The manufacturer encroaches when qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 on the equilibrium path. Fixing t=1t=1t=1 gives the uniform-quality game of §4.1. The benchmark of §3.2 has no direct channel; its equilibrium profits are ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\frac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​ and ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\frac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4(ii)

In every subgame-perfect equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0,

ΠM∗>154k=ΠMNandΠR∗<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^*_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^*_R<\frac{1}{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠM∗​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠR∗​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement makes no assumption on which quality the manufacturer chooses, on the size of ccc or on the form of the equilibrium; the constants are the benchmark's.

Milestones

  1. The benchmark equilibrium (uN=13ku^N=\frac1{3k}uN=3k1​, wN=29kw^N=\frac2{9k}wN=9k2​, qRN=16q^N_R=\frac16qRN​=61​ and the two profits), p. 9.
  2. The quantity subgame (7) for t<1t<1t<1, p. 16, and the reduced profit ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) obtained by optimizing www, p. 29.
  3. Lemma 1(i)–(ii): the manufacturer's optimal ratio t(u)t(u)t(u) for given uuu, when the retailer's product is lower (t≤1t\le1t≤1) or higher (t≥1t\ge1t≥1) quality.
  4. Claim 1 and Lemma 1(iii): for c<112kc<\frac1{12k}c<12k1​ the profits of the two kinds of differentiation cross exactly once in uuu.
  5. Proposition 3: under encroachment, t∗≤1t^*\le1t∗≤1.
  6. Proposition 1(iii) in the uniform-quality game.
  7. Claim 2 and Proposition 4(i): thresholds 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ such that the manufacturer differentiates (t∗<1t^*<1t∗<1) for c<c1c<c_1c<c1​, uses uniform quality for c1<c<c2c_1<c<c_2c1​<c<c2​, and does not encroach for c>c2c>c_2c>c2​.

Companions

The §6.1 benchmark in which both qualities go through the retailer (ΠMN2=150k\Pi^{N2}_M=\frac1{50k}ΠMN2​=50k1​, ΠRN2=1100k\Pi^{N2}_R=\frac1{100k}ΠRN2​=100k1​), Proposition 5 (the win–lose outcome against that benchmark), and the existence of an equilibrium. The threshold milestones assert existence for each cost, so their conclusions have an equilibrium to describe.

Significance

Proposition 4(ii) says that letting the manufacturer differentiate quality across channels does not change who wins: the manufacturer still gains from encroachment and the retailer still loses, although one might expect the retailer to benefit from not facing an identical product. Proposition 3 adds that differentiation, when used, puts the higher quality in the direct channel, and Proposition 4(i) shows that for intermediate selling costs the manufacturer prefers no differentiation at all, contrary to the monopoly intuition that segmentation always pays. Proposition 5 shows the conclusion persists against a benchmark in which the retailer already carries a two-product line.

The results are proved in the paper, in part with numerical verification (e.g. the bounds on u^\hat uu^ in the proof of Proposition 3, and the location of c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​). None of them has been machine-checked. A formal development would turn these numerical steps into proofs and would leave a reusable, explicit model of a three-stage Stackelberg game with a vertically differentiated linear demand.

Difficulty

The equilibrium analysis is not a single concave program. Backward induction produces closed forms only on regions (the retailer's order must leave the manufacturer a positive direct quantity, and the retailer's quantity must stay positive), and the manufacturer's stage-1 problem is a comparison across these regions and across t<1t<1t<1, t=1t=1t=1 and t>1t>1t>1. The profit of low-quality encroachment, ΠML(u)\Pi^L_M(u)ΠML​(u), involves a square root in uuu, and the paper controls its critical points by a case analysis on polynomial derivatives with numerically located crossing points (pp. 39–40). The thresholds c1≈0.0973/kc_1\approx0.0973/kc1​≈0.0973/k and c2≈0.1019/kc_2\approx0.1019/kc2​≈0.1019/k are defined implicitly by the equality of maximized profits. Comparing the equilibrium profit with 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​ therefore requires bounding a maximum taken over a piecewise-defined family, not evaluating one formula.

Formalization scope

The game is defined in QualityEncroach.Differ.Game. Quantities are restricted to be nonnegative; the wholesale price is unrestricted, as in the paper; qualities satisfy u>0u>0u>0, t>0t>0t>0. The price formulas are used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper; the t>1t>1t>1 case, which the paper says "can be derived similarly", is that derivation. The equilibrium notion is subgame perfection written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, on and off the path. Benchmark profits appear as the constants 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​, 1108k\frac1{108k}108k1​ (and 150k\frac1{50k}50k1​, 1100k\frac1{100k}100k1​); separate items derive them from the benchmark games. Threshold statements give c2>0c_2>0c2​>0 and 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ depending only on kkk, assert equilibrium existence at every c≥0c\ge0c≥0, and say nothing at c=c2c=c_2c=c2​, where the paper's statements disagree. Lemma 1 and Claim 1 are stated about the paper's reduced-form profits, defined by the displayed formulas in QualityEncroach.Differ.Reduced; the item reduced_profit_high links ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) for t≤1t\le1t≤1 to the game. Claim 1 retains c=0c=0c=0 and quantifies only over positive qualities, so no reduced form is evaluated at u=0u=0u=0.

The goal is about subgame-perfect equilibria of the game, not about the reduced forms: a proof that only compares closed-form profits does not prove it without the milestones linking those forms to equilibrium play. The goal is not vacuous only if an equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 exists; the companion spe_exists asserts existence.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the benchmark and the quantity subgame are routine calculus on quadratics; Lemma 1(i)–(ii) are one-variable sign analyses; Claim 1, Lemma 1(iii), Proposition 3 and the thresholds require the case analyses of the appendix.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0228
  • M. Mussa, S. Rosen, Monopoly and Product Quality, Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(78)90085-6
  • K. S. Moorthy, Product and Price Competition in a Duopoly, Marketing Science 7(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.7.2.141
  • M. Motta, Endogenous Quality Choice: Price vs. Quantity Competition, Journal of Industrial Economics 41(2), 1993. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950430
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Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 2: Under Unique Hamiltonian Maximizers and Lasry–Lions Monotonicity, the Mean Field Game Has at Most One SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games, introduced independently by Lasry and Lions (Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006), describe the Nash equilibria of games with a very large number of symmetric players, each of whom reacts only to the empirical distribution of the others. In the limit, an equilibrium is a fixed point: a flow of population laws such that the optimal response of a single representative player to that flow reproduces it.

Existence of such fixed points is typically obtained by compactness, and says nothing about whether the equilibrium is determined by the data. Uniqueness matters for the use of the model: a unique equilibrium can be computed, approximated, and compared across parameters, while multiple equilibria raise a selection problem. Lasry and Lions showed by counterexamples that uniqueness fails in general, and identified a monotonicity condition on the population-dependent part of the reward under which it holds; outside that condition, uniqueness is typically available only for short horizons and Lipschitz coefficients.

Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152v2, 2014; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015) set up a weak formulation of mean field games in which the controlled state is obtained from a fixed driftless diffusion by a Girsanov change of measure, so that the coefficients may be merely measurable in the state and path dependent. This mission formalizes their uniqueness theorem (Theorem 3.8): the Lasry–Lions argument carried out in the weak formulation, through backward stochastic differential equations.

Setting

Fix a horizon TTT, a dimension ddd, the path space C=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C = C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm, and a measurable ψ:C→[1,∞)\psi:\mathcal C\to[1,\infty)ψ:C→[1,∞). Write Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C) for the probability measures μ\muμ on C\mathcal CC with ∫ψ dμ<∞\int\psi\,d\mu<\infty∫ψdμ<∞. A control set AAA is a compact convex subset of a normed space, and P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) is the set of probability measures on AAA with the weak topology.

On a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P) carrying an initial state ξ\xiξ and an independent ddd-dimensional Brownian motion WWW, filtered by the augmented filtration of (ξ,W)(\xi,W)(ξ,W), let XXX solve the driftless state equation dXt=σ(t,X) dWtdX_t=\sigma(t,X)\,dW_tdXt​=σ(t,X)dWt​, X0=ξX_0=\xiX0​=ξ. The admissible controls A\mathbb AA are the progressively measurable AAA-valued processes. For μ∈Pψ(C)\mu\in\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)μ∈Pψ​(C) and α∈A\alpha\in\mathbb Aα∈A the measure Pμ,αP^{\mu,\alpha}Pμ,α has density

dPμ,αdP=E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt) dWt)T,\frac{dP^{\mu,\alpha}}{dP}=\mathcal E\Big(\int_0^\cdot\sigma^{-1}b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)\,dW_t\Big)_T,dPdPμ,α​=E(∫0⋅​σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt​)dWt​)T​,

under which XXX has drift b(t,X,μ,αt)b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)b(t,X,μ,αt​). For a flow q:[0,T]→P(A)q:[0,T]\to\mathcal P(A)q:[0,T]→P(A) the reward is

Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0Tf(t,X,μ,qt,αt) dt+g(X,μ)].J^{\mu,q}(\alpha)=E^{\mu,\alpha}\Big[\int_0^T f(t,X,\mu,q_t,\alpha_t)\,dt+g(X,\mu)\Big].Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0T​f(t,X,μ,qt​,αt​)dt+g(X,μ)].

A pair (μ,q)(\mu,q)(μ,q) is a solution of the MFG (Definition 3.4) if some α∈A\alpha\in\mathbb Aα∈A maximizes Jμ,qJ^{\mu,q}Jμ,q over A\mathbb AA, Pμ,α∘X−1=μP^{\mu,\alpha}\circ X^{-1}=\muPμ,α∘X−1=μ, and Pμ,α∘αt−1=qtP^{\mu,\alpha}\circ\alpha_t^{-1}=q_tPμ,α∘αt−1​=qt​ for almost every ttt.

The Hamiltonian is h(t,x,μ,q,z,a)=f(t,x,μ,q,a)+z⋅σ−1b(t,x,μ,a)h(t,x,\mu,q,z,a)=f(t,x,\mu,q,a)+z\cdot\sigma^{-1}b(t,x,\mu,a)h(t,x,μ,q,z,a)=f(t,x,μ,q,a)+z⋅σ−1b(t,x,μ,a), with maximum HHH over a∈Aa\in Aa∈A and maximizer set A(t,x,μ,q,z)A(t,x,\mu,q,z)A(t,x,μ,q,z). Assumption (U) asks that (U.1) the maximizer is unique; (U.2) b=b(t,x,a)b=b(t,x,a)b=b(t,x,a) does not depend on μ\muμ; (U.3) f=f1(t,x,μ)+f2(t,μ,q)+f3(t,x,a)f=f_1(t,x,\mu)+f_2(t,\mu,q)+f_3(t,x,a)f=f1​(t,x,μ)+f2​(t,μ,q)+f3​(t,x,a); and (U.4) the Lasry–Lions monotonicity condition

∫C[g(x,μ)−g(x,μ′)+∫0T(f1(t,x,μ)−f1(t,x,μ′))dt](μ−μ′)(dx)≤0for all μ,μ′.\int_{\mathcal C}\Big[g(x,\mu)-g(x,\mu')+\int_0^T\big(f_1(t,x,\mu)-f_1(t,x,\mu')\big)dt\Big](\mu-\mu')(dx)\le0\qquad\text{for all }\mu,\mu'.∫C​[g(x,μ)−g(x,μ′)+∫0T​(f1​(t,x,μ)−f1​(t,x,μ′))dt](μ−μ′)(dx)≤0for all μ,μ′.

The standing assumptions (S) of the paper (measurability, continuity in aaa, nonsingular σ\sigmaσ, bounded σ−1b\sigma^{-1}bσ−1b, a ψ\psiψ-growth bound on f,gf,gf,g, and a separation of fff) are in force throughout.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.8

Under (S) and (U), if (μ1,q1)(\mu^1,q^1)(μ1,q1) and (μ2,q2)(\mu^2,q^2)(μ2,q2) are solutions of the MFG, then

μ1=μ2andqt1=qt2 for almost every t∈[0,T].\mu^1=\mu^2\qquad\text{and}\qquad q^1_t=q^2_t\ \text{for almost every }t\in[0,T].μ1=μ2andqt1​=qt2​ for almost every t∈[0,T].

Definition 3.4 constrains qtq_tqt​ only for almost every ttt, so this is the strongest identification possible.

Milestones

  1. §7.3, p. 30. For a solution (μ,q)(\mu,q)(μ,q) with optimal control α\alphaα and a solution (Y,Z)(Y,Z)(Y,Z) of the BSDE Yt=g(X,μ)+∫tTH(s,X,μ,qs,Zs)ds−∫tTZsdWsY_t=g(X,\mu)+\int_t^TH(s,X,\mu,q_s,Z_s)ds-\int_t^TZ_sdW_sYt​=g(X,μ)+∫tT​H(s,X,μ,qs​,Zs​)ds−∫tT​Zs​dWs​ (7.1), αt\alpha_tαt​ maximizes the Hamiltonian at ZtZ_tZt​, dt×dPdt\times dPdt×dP-a.e.; under (U.1) every such maximizing control agrees with α\alphaα a.e.
  2. (7.9)–(7.10). E[Y01−Y02]E[Y^1_0-Y^2_0]E[Y01​−Y02​] written as an expectation under Pμ1,α1P^{\mu^1,\alpha^1}Pμ1,α1 and under Pμ2,α2P^{\mu^2,\alpha^2}Pμ2,α2.
  3. (7.11)–(7.12). Pointwise bounds from maximization of the Hamiltonian, strict when the controls differ.
  4. (7.13). [Eμ1,α1−Eμ2,α2][Δg(X)+∫0TΔf1(t,X)dt]=0\big[E^{\mu^1,\alpha^1}-E^{\mu^2,\alpha^2}\big]\big[\Delta g(X)+\int_0^T\Delta f_1(t,X)dt\big]=0[Eμ1,α1−Eμ2,α2][Δg(X)+∫0T​Δf1​(t,X)dt]=0.
  5. §7.3, p. 31. α1=α2\alpha^1=\alpha^2α1=α2, L×P\mathcal L\times PL×P-a.e.

Significance

Theorem 3.8, combined with the existence theorem of the same paper (Theorem 3.5, the first mission of this series), gives existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium (Corollary 3.9) for coefficients that are only measurable and path dependent in the state, under a monotonicity condition and no Lipschitz or small-horizon requirement. Uniqueness is also what makes the approximation result of the paper (Theorem 4.2, the third mission) refer to the equilibrium.

The result is proved in the paper. It has not been machine-checked; no mean field game uniqueness theorem in a weak or Girsanov formulation is formalized in Lean or Mathlib. The formal development would contain, as reusable parts, the Doléans exponential of a bounded Itô integrand as a probability density, the change of Brownian motion under it, the comparison principle for BSDEs with Lipschitz drivers, and the Lasry–Lions monotonicity argument.

Difficulty

The argument compares two equilibria through two different measures Pμ1,α1P^{\mu^1,\alpha^1}Pμ1,α1 and Pμ2,α2P^{\mu^2,\alpha^2}Pμ2,α2. The direct Lasry–Lions computation, which differentiates a pairing of a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman solution with a Fokker–Planck solution, is not available: there is no PDE, and the value functions are only known through BSDEs. The proof needs (a) that an optimal control maximizes the Hamiltonian along the adjoint process ZZZ — the necessity half of the BSDE optimality criterion, which the paper uses without a displayed proof; (b) the representation of E[Y01−Y02]E[Y^1_0-Y^2_0]E[Y01​−Y02​] under each of the two measures, which requires that the stochastic integrals ∫(Z1−Z2) dWμi,αi\int(Z^1-Z^2)\,dW^{\mu^i,\alpha^i}∫(Z1−Z2)dWμi,αi be true martingales under the changed measures; and (c) turning a strict pointwise inequality on a set of positive dt×dPdt\times dPdt×dP-measure into a strict inequality of expectations, which uses the equivalence P∼Pμi,αiP\sim P^{\mu^i,\alpha^i}P∼Pμi,αi.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace WeakMFG.Uniqueness and builds on the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (Brownian motion, L2L^2L2 Itô integrals, Itô processes, BSDEs). Conventions:

  • Base space. Any probability space carrying ξ\xiξ and an independent standard Brownian motion WWW, with the filtration σ(ξ)∨σ(Ws:s≤t)\sigma(\xi)\vee\sigma(W_s:s\le t)σ(ξ)∨σ(Ws​:s≤t) completed by the measurable null sets; the canonical space of the paper is an instance.
  • State. "Strong solution" of dX=σ(t,X)dWdX=\sigma(t,X)dWdX=σ(t,X)dW is read in the L2L^2L2 Itô theory (square-integrable solutions); σ(t,X)>0\sigma(t,X)>0σ(t,X)>0 is matrix invertibility; states are vectors of Rd\mathbb R^dRd with the sup norm, Euclidean squares written as sums of squares.
  • Measures. Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C) is a structure carrying the topology τψ\tau_\psiτψ​; P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) has the weak topology and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-field; time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, of which only [0,T][0,T][0,T] enters.
  • Densities. Itô integrals are determined up to versions, so dPμ,α/dPdP^{\mu,\alpha}/dPdPμ,α/dP is a predicate on a random variable; statements assert that a version exists and hold for every version. Optimality is stated against every admissible competitor, never through a real supremum.
  • Added hypotheses, disclosed. Joint measurability of (t,x,q,a)↦f(t,x,μ,q,a)(t,x,q,a)\mapsto f(t,x,\mu,q,a)(t,x,q,a)↦f(t,x,μ,q,a), which the reward presupposes; in (U.4), integrability of the integrals the page writes; the slip in (U.3), which omits qqq from the arguments of fff, is corrected.

A formalization whose hypotheses contain the conclusion is ruled out: the goal assumes only that the two pairs are solutions in the sense of Definition 3.4 — no BSDE solution, no Hamiltonian maximization, no equality of densities is assumed. Uniqueness of qqq is stated almost everywhere in time, and nowhere is equality of the two optimal controls as functions asked for.

Contributions welcome: the Doléans exponential and Girsanov's theorem for bounded drifts in the L2L^2L2 Itô layer, existence and comparison for Lipschitz BSDEs on a filtration enlarged by an independent initial condition, and the measurable maximum theorem for the Hamiltonian. These are reusable beyond this mission, in particular by the other two missions of the series.

Selected references

  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, arXiv:1307.1152v2, 2014; Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Japanese Journal of Mathematics 2(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Communications in Information and Systems 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • E. Pardoux, S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems & Control Letters 14(1), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

From the Master Equation to Mean Field Game Limit Theory: Large Deviations and Concentration of Measure 1: Without Common Noise, n-Player Nash Equilibria Concentrate Dimension-FreeResearch Paper

Motivation

A large stochastic game has one state process per player. Each player's feedback changes with the empirical distribution of all states, so a finite population remains coupled even when the idiosyncratic Brownian motions are independent. A useful quantitative question is whether a statistic of the entire collection of equilibrium trajectories can deviate substantially from its mean as the population grows. Delarue, Lacker, and Ramanan answer this for smooth closed-loop mean-field games in their large-deviations and concentration paper. Their result concerns the equilibrium state paths themselves, rather than only a fixed-time empirical measure.

The paper is part of a two-paper limit theory. Its companion central-limit paper supplies the Nash-to-McKean–Vlasov estimates quoted here as Theorems 4.1 and 4.2. The concentration argument also uses transport inequalities: Gozlan's dimension-free characterization explains the quadratic transport assumption on the initial law, while Djellout, Guillin, and Wu provide a transport principle for diffusion path laws. The present mission records the paper's main concentration theorem and four of its explicit intermediate targets.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a positive state dimension ddd. Player iii has a continuous state path Xi∈Cd=C([0,T];Rd)X^i\in C^d=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)Xi∈Cd=C([0,T];Rd). The empirical measure of a vector x=(x1,…,xn)x=(x^1,\ldots,x^n)x=(x1,…,xn) is mxn=n−1∑iδxim_x^n=n^{-1}\sum_i\delta_{x^i}mxn​=n−1∑i​δxi​; the same formula applies to paths. The norm on CdC^dCd is ∥x∥∞=sup⁡t≤T∣xt∣\|x\|_\infty=\sup_{t\le T}|x_t|∥x∥∞​=supt≤T​∣xt​∣, and the product norm relevant to this mission is ∥x∥n,2=(∑i∥xi∥∞2)1/2\|x\|_{n,2}=(\sum_i\|x^i\|_\infty^2)^{1/2}∥x∥n,2​=(∑i​∥xi∥∞2​)1/2.

The game is posed on a filtered probability space with a common Wiener process WWW, independent idiosyncratic Wiener processes BiB^iBi, and i.i.d. initial states X0iX^i_0X0i​ of law μ0\mu_0μ0​. The action space is Polish. A drift b(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)b(x,m,a), running cost f(x,m,a)f(x,m,a)f(x,m,a), and terminal cost g(x,m)g(x,m)g(x,m) specify the control problem. The Hamiltonian H(x,m,y)H(x,m,y)H(x,m,y) minimizes b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)\cdot y+f(x,m,a)b(x,m,a)⋅y+f(x,m,a) over actions; a selected minimizer α^\hat\alphaα^ defines b^=b(⋅,α^)\hat b=b(\cdot,\hat\alpha)b^=b(⋅,α^) and f^=f(⋅,α^)\hat f=f(\cdot,\hat\alpha)f^​=f(⋅,α^).

Classical solutions vn,iv^{n,i}vn,i of the nnn-player Nash system (2.6) determine the feedback in the equilibrium state equation (2.7). A classical solution UUU of the master equation (2.8) determines the comparison particle equation (4.1). Both equations retain common-noise terms in their definitions. The goal sets the common-noise coefficient σ0\sigma_0σ0​ to zero. Assumption A imposes Hamiltonian attainment, Lipschitz b^\hat bb^, nondegenerate idiosyncratic diffusion, an initial moment above order four, and the stated classical solutions. Either B or B′ controls the selected running cost; B′ also bounds UUU and vn,iv^{n,i}vn,i as specified on pp. 8–9.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 3.4. If μ0\mu_0μ0​ satisfies the quadratic transport inequality W2(μ0,ν)≤2κR(ν∣μ0)W_2(\mu_0,\nu)\le\sqrt{2\kappa R(\nu\mid\mu_0)}W2​(μ0​,ν)≤2κR(ν∣μ0​)​ for every ν≪μ0\nu\ll\mu_0ν≪μ0​ with finite second moment, then constants C,δ1,δ2>0C,\delta_1,\delta_2>0C,δ1​,δ2​>0 exist such that, for a>0a>0a>0, n≥C/a2n\ge C/a^2n≥C/a2, and every 1-Lipschitz Φ\PhiΦ on the product path space,

P ⁣(Φ(X)−EΦ(X)>a)≤2nexp⁡(−δ1a2n)+2exp⁡(−δ2a2).P\!\left(\Phi(X)-E\Phi(X)>a\right) \le 2n\exp(-\delta_1a^2n)+2\exp(-\delta_2a^2).P(Φ(X)−EΦ(X)>a)≤2nexp(−δ1​a2n)+2exp(−δ2​a2).

The four milestones retain the paper's two main comparison layers. Theorem 4.3 controls both the path-space Wasserstein distance between the Nash and comparison empirical measures and their synchronous squared path distance by 2nexp⁡(−ε2n2/κ2)2n\exp(-\varepsilon^2n^2/\kappa_2)2nexp(−ε2n2/κ2​) for n≥κ1/εn\ge\kappa_1/\varepsilonn≥κ1​/ε. Theorem 5.3 gives a dimension-uniform transport inequality and concentration bound for the law of a Lipschitz SDE in the coordinatewise product-supremum norm. Equation (5.7) bounds the change in a 1-Lipschitz path expectation when the deterministic initial vector changes. Theorem 5.4 gives P(Φ(X~)−EΦ(X~)>a)≤2e−δa2P(\Phi(\tilde X)-E\Phi(\tilde X)>a)\le2e^{-\delta a^2}P(Φ(X~)−EΦ(X~)>a)≤2e−δa2 for the interacting comparison system. The labels, constants, and domains follow the pinned preprint, pp. 12 and 16–20.

Significance

Theorem 3.4 supplies a finite-population tail estimate for every 1-Lipschitz observable of the entire equilibrium path vector. The first term becomes small at a population-dependent scale, while the second term has a rate independent of the number of players. This is stronger information than convergence of the empirical measure alone: it applies to path-dependent statistics and includes explicit deviation probabilities Theorem 3.4.

The mathematical statements are proved in the source paper, subject to its assumptions; Theorems 4.1 and 4.2 that support its comparison result are proved in the companion paper. The work here is to give these claims faithful machine-checkable statements and ultimately machine-checked proofs. The present draft is a set of open Lean theorem statements with sorry, so it asserts no completed formal proof. A completed development would also make its definitions of empirical path laws, Wasserstein continuity, flat derivatives, and interacting SDE solutions reusable for other mean-field models.

Difficulty

Independent-noise concentration cannot simply be applied to the Nash state paths. A player's drift depends on the empirical state measure and on a derivative of the nnn-player Nash solution, so changing one input can change every trajectory. The master equation describes a comparison system, but using it requires matching the Nash and master feedbacks on the same filtered probability space. The regularity in Assumptions A, B, and B′ is substantial: the master field has first and second derivatives in both space and measure, with uniform bounds. A formal proof must also preserve the exact path norm and the population-independent placement of constants. The SDE transport theorem's uniformity over dimensions is particularly consequential for Theorem 5.4 §§4–5.

Formalization scope

State vectors use finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces; time uses nonnegative reals and only [0,T][0,T][0,T] is evaluated. A continuous path is a ContinuousMap on that interval with its supremum norm. Finite products use PiLp 2; the scalar-coordinate version of the norm is used for Theorem 5.3. Players are indexed from zero, corresponding to the paper's indices 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n, and every theorem requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Probabilities and entropy are extended nonnegative values. Transport distances stay extended until a finite-moment hypothesis justifies their real value.

The filtered Wiener processes, i.i.d. initial states, Borel coefficients, Polish action space, Nash and master PDEs, and either B or B′ are represented explicitly. The master equation is imposed on P2\mathcal P_2P2​; its spatial gradient is also required on Pp∗\mathcal P_{p_*}Pp∗​​, as Assumption A(5) specifies. A flat measure derivative is a normalized witness satisfying (2.2), while spatial derivatives are actual Fréchet derivatives. SDE solutions are path-valued processes satisfying coordinate Itô integral relations; solution families are supplied as hypotheses, since their existence is asserted by the source. Expectations appearing in the conclusions are stated integrable, so a default zero integral cannot satisfy a tail bound accidentally. The model cannot be replaced by arbitrary paths or a vacuous solution predicate: the Nash and comparison paths must satisfy their respective equations with the same noises and initial states.

The mission includes Theorem 4.3, Theorem 5.3, (5.7), and Theorem 5.4. The quoted Theorems 4.1 and 4.2, the general transport equivalence of Theorem 5.1, and tensorization in Theorem 5.2 remain useful later contributions, with their original hypotheses and conclusions intact. The printed constant in the “moreover” clause of Theorem 5.1 is omitted because it is dimensionally incorrect; no substitute assertion is placed in this mission.

Selected references

  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: Large deviations and concentration of measure, Annals of Probability 48 (2020), 211–263; formalization follows arXiv:1804.08550v1.
  • F. Delarue, D. Lacker, and K. Ramanan, From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: A central limit theorem, preprint (2018), arXiv:1804.08542.
  • N. Gozlan, A characterization of dimension free concentration in terms of transportation inequalities, Annals of Probability 37 (2009), 2480–2498, doi:10.1214/09-AOP470.
  • H. Djellout, A. Guillin, and L. Wu, Transportation cost-information inequalities and applications to random dynamical systems and diffusions, Annals of Probability 32 (2004), 2702–2732, doi:10.1214/009117904000000531.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment I: With Endogenous Uniform Quality, an Encroaching Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer Always LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers through their own stores and websites, alongside the independent retailers that carry their products. This practice is called supply chain encroachment. Retailers routinely resent it, and examples range from beer brewers to personal computers. Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that, when product quality is fixed, encroachment can benefit the retailer too: the manufacturer lowers the wholesale price to keep the retailer channel competitive, and this wholesale price effect can outweigh the lost sales.

Ha, Long and Nasiry (Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) ask what changes when the manufacturer also chooses product quality. Their first result, formalized in this mission, is that the win–win outcome disappears: with endogenous quality and a single product sold in both channels, encroachment always helps the manufacturer and always hurts the retailer.

Setting

Consumers have a quality sensitivity θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and a consumer who buys a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 at price ppp obtains surplus θu−p\theta u-pθu−p. When one product of quality uuu is sold in total quantity qqq, the market-clearing price is p=u(1−q)p=u(1-q)p=u(1−q). The manufacturer's unit production cost for quality uuu is ku2ku^2ku2, with k>0k>0k>0 the cost of quality. Selling one unit through her own direct channel costs her an additional c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

Benchmark (no direct channel). The manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www and a quality uuu; after observing them the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0. The profits are

ΠRN=(u(1−qR)−w) qR,ΠMN=(w−ku2) qR.\Pi^N_R=(u(1-q_R)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^N_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R .ΠRN​=(u(1−qR​)−w)qR​,ΠMN​=(w−ku2)qR​.

Encroachment with uniform quality. The game has three stages and perfect information:

  1. the manufacturer chooses www and uuu;
  2. the retailer, having observed them, orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0;
  3. the manufacturer, having observed qRq_RqR​, sells qM≥0q_M\ge 0qM​≥0 directly.

Both channels sell the same product at the price u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​), so

ΠRU=(u(1−qR−qM)−w) qR,ΠMU=(w−ku2) qR+(u−uqM−uqR−c−ku2) qM.\Pi^U_R=(u(1-q_R-q_M)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^U_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R+(u-uq_M-uq_R-c-ku^2)\,q_M .ΠRU​=(u(1−qR​−qM​)−w)qR​,ΠMU​=(w−ku2)qR​+(u−uqM​−uqR​−c−ku2)qM​.

The solution concept is subgame perfect equilibrium: at every decision node, on or off the equilibrium path, the mover's rule picks a feasible action that no feasible alternative beats. The manufacturer encroaches when qMU>0q^U_M>0qMU​>0 on the equilibrium path.

In the Lean development these are the structures Outcome and Profile, the payoffs retailerPayoff and mfrPayoff k c, and the predicate IsSPE k c σ of the definition QualityEncroach.Uniform.Game, with the benchmark counterparts BenchProfile and IsBenchSPE k τ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1(iii)

In the benchmark, every equilibrium has uN=13ku^N=\tfrac1{3k}uN=3k1​ and profits ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\tfrac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​, ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\tfrac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​. The goal states that, for every k>0k>0k>0, c≥0c\ge0c≥0 and every subgame perfect equilibrium of the encroachment game in which the manufacturer encroaches,

ΠMU>154k=ΠMNandΠRU<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^U_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^U_R<\frac1{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠMU​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠRU​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement fixes no threshold value, and it holds for every equilibrium.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's backward induction:

  1. the benchmark subgame, equations (1)–(2), and the benchmark equilibrium (§3.2);
  2. the manufacturer's stage-3 best response qMU(qR,w,u)=(12−qR2−c2u−ku2)+q^U_M(q_R,w,u)=\big(\tfrac12-\tfrac{q_R}{2}-\tfrac{c}{2u}-\tfrac{ku}{2}\big)^+qMU​(qR​,w,u)=(21​−2qR​​−2uc​−2ku​)+;
  3. the quantity subgame (3) and the optimal wholesale price and profits (4)–(5) for a given quality;
  4. the three-case optimal profit ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) of the Appendix, covering three regimes: the manufacturer sells directly, the retailer deters direct sales exactly, or the direct channel is idle;
  5. Proposition 1(i): there is a threshold c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 such that
c<c~ ⇒ qMU>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU=0.c<\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M>0,\qquad c>\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M=0 .c<c~ ⇒ qMU​>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU​=0.

Further statements

The mission also contains:

  • condition (6) for a fixed quality, together with the identity wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6w^N(u)-w^U(u)=c/6wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6;
  • Proposition 1(ii): the equilibrium quality first rises and then falls in ccc, and it is distorted upward exactly below a threshold cuc^ucu;
  • Corollary 1: c~\tilde cc~ is decreasing in kkk, and for c>0c>0c>0 the retailer's profit under encroachment is increasing in kkk;
  • existence of a subgame perfect equilibrium.

Significance

The result separates two regimes that look alike. With quality fixed, a retailer facing an encroaching manufacturer is better off exactly when condition (6) holds. With quality chosen by the manufacturer, that region disappears. The manufacturer distorts quality, upward when ccc is small and downward when it is large, and so relies less on the wholesale price to steer the retailer's order. The retailer then loses in every equilibrium in which encroachment occurs. The paper's later sections (quality differentiation, a fixed cost of quality, no quality commitment, a general cost function) all measure against this base case.

The result is proved on paper, by backward induction with closed-form profits, an envelope-theorem convexity argument in ccc, and a numerically located threshold c~≈0.1019/k\tilde c\approx0.1019/kc~≈0.1019/k. None of it is formalized. A machine-checked proof would certify:

  • the closed-form reduced profits;
  • the case analysis of the Appendix, whose boundaries are given by roots of polynomial equations in uuu;
  • the claim, stated in the paper only for the reduced problem, that it holds for every subgame perfect equilibrium of the game.

Difficulty

Each step of the backward induction is a one-variable concave problem, but the steps do not compose into a single smooth problem. The retailer's best order depends on whether his order leaves room for direct sales. As a result the manufacturer's profit given uuu is the piecewise function ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u). Its middle piece describes a retailer who orders exactly enough to keep the manufacturer out, and that piece is not a stationary point of anything. The global optimum over uuu switches between the first piece and the other two at a threshold c~\tilde cc~ that the paper locates only numerically.

The goal compares the optimum of this piecewise problem with a constant, for every equilibrium. The natural first idea, comparing the reduced profits with the benchmark ones pointwise in uuu, does not work for the retailer: for a fixed quality his encroachment profit 2c2/(9u)2c^2/(9u)2c2/(9u) exceeds the benchmark profit u(1−ku)2/16u(1-ku)^2/16u(1−ku)2/16 on part of the range, which is exactly condition (6). The comparison has to use the quality the manufacturer actually chooses, and that quality is known only through the case analysis above.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The following conventions are fixed:

  • the wholesale price ranges over all of R\mathbb RR, since the paper states no sign restriction;
  • qualities are u>0u>0u>0 and quantities qR,qM≥0q_R,q_M\ge0qR​,qM​≥0;
  • the inverse demand u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​) is used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper.

Subgame perfection is written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, which in this three-stage game with perfect information is subgame perfection. It constrains the retailer's rule at every (w,u)(w,u)(w,u) and the manufacturer's stage-3 rule at every (w,u,qR)(w,u,q_R)(w,u,qR​), not only on the path.

The benchmark profits in the goal are the paper's constants 1/(54k)1/(54k)1/(54k) and 1/(108k)1/(108k)1/(108k). The milestone benchmark_equilibrium proves that a benchmark equilibrium exists and that these are its profits.

Two formalizations would trivialize the goal, and both are ruled out:

  • stating the goal about the reduced form ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​ at a maximizer of ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) instead of about the game would assume the backward induction;
  • dropping the off-path optimality conditions would let the goal range over non-equilibria.

The encroachment threshold of Proposition 1(i) is stated in both directions, with c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 chosen before ccc. The boundary point c=c~c=\tilde cc=c~ is left open, because the paper's statements disagree there.

The closed forms qRNq^N_RqRN​, wNw^NwN, ΠMN\Pi^N_MΠMN​, ΠRN\Pi^N_RΠRN​, qMUq^U_MqMU​, qRUq^U_RqRU​, wUw^UwU, ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​, ΠRU\Pi^U_RΠRU​, ΠMUZ\Pi^{UZ}_MΠMUZ​ and ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ are definitions that cite their page. Every statement that uses one with uuu in a denominator assumes u>0u>0u>0.

A complete development needs:

  • concave quadratic maximization;
  • a piecewise-concave best-response lemma;
  • the envelope argument of the Appendix, or a direct polynomial comparison;
  • some way to certify the numerically located thresholds, for which interval arithmetic or explicit polynomial sign certificates are both acceptable.

The game definitions are reusable for the other missions of this series, which keep this cost structure. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal that bypass the threshold computation.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5): 651–659, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Probabilistic Weak Formulation of Mean Field Games and Applications 1: When the Hamiltonian's Maximizer Sets Are Convex, the Mean Field Game in Weak Formulation Has a SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games (MFGs) describe Nash equilibria of stochastic differential games with a very large number of symmetric players, each of whom interacts with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states (and, in this paper, of their controls). They were introduced independently by Lasry and Lions and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines around 2006, and are used for models of systemic risk, price impact in optimal execution, flocking and crowd motion, and large-population economics. The basic mathematical question is existence of an equilibrium: a flow of measures that is reproduced by the optimal behaviour of a representative player who takes that flow as given.

Two families of methods dominate the literature. The analytic approach of Lasry and Lions solves a coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman / Fokker–Planck system. The probabilistic approach of Carmona and Delarue (arXiv:1210.5780) solves a forward–backward SDE of McKean–Vlasov type in the strong formulation, on a fixed probability space with the controlled state as a strong solution. Both require the coefficients to be regular (Lipschitz or continuous) in the state variable. Carmona and Lacker (arXiv:1307.1152, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2015) introduce a weak formulation, in which controls act through a Girsanov change of measure on a fixed driftless state process. This lets the drift, running reward and terminal reward be merely measurable and path-dependent in the state. The interaction can enter through the law of the state path and through the law of the control. This mission formalizes their existence theorem.

Setting

Fix a dimension ddd, a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and the path space C=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)C=C([0,T];Rd) with the sup norm. A measurable ψ:C→[1,∞)\psi:\mathcal C\to[1,\infty)ψ:C→[1,∞) fixes the admissible population laws, Pψ(C)={μ:∫ψ dμ<∞}\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)=\{\mu:\int\psi\,d\mu<\infty\}Pψ​(C)={μ:∫ψdμ<∞}. The topology τψ(C)\tau_\psi(\mathcal C)τψ​(C) is the weakest one making μ↦∫f dμ\mu\mapsto\int f\,d\muμ↦∫fdμ continuous for every measurable fff with ∣f∣≤c ψ|f|\le c\,\psi∣f∣≤cψ. A compact convex control set AAA sits in a normed space, and P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) carries the weak topology.

A probability space carries an initial state ξ\xiξ and an independent Brownian motion WWW, with filtration F\mathbb FF generated by (ξ,W)(\xi,W)(ξ,W). Admissible controls A\mathbb AA are the progressively measurable AAA-valued processes. The driftless state XXX solves dXt=σ(t,X) dWtdX_t=\sigma(t,X)\,dW_tdXt​=σ(t,X)dWt​, X0=ξX_0=\xiX0​=ξ, and its law is X=P∘X−1\mathcal X=P\circ X^{-1}X=P∘X−1. For a population law μ\muμ and a control α\alphaα, the measure Pμ,αP^{\mu,\alpha}Pμ,α has density E(∫0⋅σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt) dWt)T\mathcal E\big(\int_0^\cdot\sigma^{-1}b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)\,dW_t\big)_TE(∫0⋅​σ−1b(t,X,μ,αt​)dWt​)T​ with respect to PPP. Under Pμ,αP^{\mu,\alpha}Pμ,α, XXX is a weak solution of dXt=b(t,X,μ,αt) dt+σ(t,X) dWtμ,αdX_t=b(t,X,\mu,\alpha_t)\,dt+\sigma(t,X)\,dW^{\mu,\alpha}_tdXt​=b(t,X,μ,αt​)dt+σ(t,X)dWtμ,α​. Given also a measurable flow q:[0,T]→P(A)q:[0,T]\to\mathcal P(A)q:[0,T]→P(A) of control laws, the reward is

Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0Tf(t,X,μ,qt,αt) dt+g(X,μ)],Vμ,q=sup⁡α∈AJμ,q(α).J^{\mu,q}(\alpha)=\mathbb E^{\mu,\alpha}\Big[\int_0^Tf(t,X,\mu,q_t,\alpha_t)\,dt+g(X,\mu)\Big],\qquad V^{\mu,q}=\sup_{\alpha\in\mathbb A}J^{\mu,q}(\alpha).Jμ,q(α)=Eμ,α[∫0T​f(t,X,μ,qt​,αt​)dt+g(X,μ)],Vμ,q=α∈Asup​Jμ,q(α).

The standing assumptions (S) ask for:

  • measurability of the coefficients;
  • continuity in the control;
  • a unique strong solution XXX with E[ψ2(X)]<∞\mathbb E[\psi^2(X)]<\inftyE[ψ2(X)]<∞;
  • σ(t,X)\sigma(t,X)σ(t,X) nonsingular, with σ−1b\sigma^{-1}bσ−1b bounded;
  • growth of fff and ggg controlled by ψ\psiψ;
  • a separated running reward f=f1(t,x,μ,a)+f2(t,x,μ,q)f=f_1(t,x,\mu,a)+f_2(t,x,\mu,q)f=f1​(t,x,μ,a)+f2​(t,x,μ,q).

The Hamiltonian is h=f+z⋅σ−1bh=f+z\cdot\sigma^{-1}bh=f+z⋅σ−1b. Its maximum over AAA is HHH, and the set of maximizers is A(t,x,μ,z)A(t,x,\mu,z)A(t,x,μ,z).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.5

Assume (S), (E) (for each (t,x)(t,x)(t,x), the maps bbb, fff, ggg are sequentially continuous in the measure and control arguments, on the laws μ∼X\mu\sim\mathcal Xμ∼X with τψ\tau_\psiτψ​) and (C) (each A(t,x,μ,z)A(t,x,\mu,z)A(t,x,μ,z) is convex). Then there exist μ∈Pψ(C)\mu\in\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)μ∈Pψ​(C), a measurable q:[0,T]→P(A)q:[0,T]\to\mathcal P(A)q:[0,T]→P(A) and α∈A\alpha\in\mathbb Aα∈A with

Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α),Pμ,α∘X−1=μ,Pμ,α∘αt−1=qt  for a.e. t.V^{\mu,q}=J^{\mu,q}(\alpha),\qquad P^{\mu,\alpha}\circ X^{-1}=\mu,\qquad P^{\mu,\alpha}\circ\alpha_t^{-1}=q_t\ \text{ for a.e. } t.Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α),Pμ,α∘X−1=μ,Pμ,α∘αt−1​=qt​  for a.e. t.

This is Definition 3.4 of a solution of the MFG. No constants or rates appear; the goal asserts existence only.

Milestones

The milestones are the statements the paper's proof (§7) names, in attack order:

  • the BSDE characterization of optimal controls, (7.1)–(7.4) and Remark 7.2;
  • Lemma 7.6 (densities of image measures);
  • Lemma 7.7 (uniform moment bounds on Girsanov densities);
  • Proposition 7.8 (compactness and metrizability of the set Q\mathcal QQ of candidate laws);
  • Berge's maximum theorem (Theorem 7.5);
  • Lemma 7.9 (continuity of the Hamiltonian on Q\mathcal QQ);
  • Lemma 7.10 (stability of the BSDE adjoint process);
  • Lemma 7.11 (upper hemicontinuity of the optimal-control correspondence);
  • the set-valued fixed point theorem, Proposition 7.4.

Significance

The theorem yields equilibria for interactions that are discontinuous in the state and nonlocal in time. Examples are rank-based rewards, path-dependent payoffs, and dependence on the law of the controls ("extended" MFGs, needed for price impact models). Strong-formulation methods do not cover these. It is also the input to the companion results: uniqueness under Lasry–Lions monotonicity (Theorem 3.8) and the construction of approximate Nash equilibria for the nnn-player game (Theorem 4.2), formalized as missions 2 and 3 of this series.

The result is proved in the paper. What this mission adds is a machine-checked development of the weak formulation:

  • Girsanov densities with uniform moment bounds;
  • the topology τψ\tau_\psiτψ​ and the compactness of Q\mathcal QQ;
  • BSDE comparison for control problems;
  • upper hemicontinuity of argmax correspondences;
  • a Kakutani-type fixed point theorem in locally convex spaces.

None of these is in Mathlib, and no mean field game existence theorem in the weak formulation has been formalized. Formalization also checks the proof. The fixed point theorem as printed (Proposition 7.4, with closed rather than compact values) is false, and the milestone states the corrected version. Connecting it to Lemma 7.11, whose values are closed but not compact in the norm E∫0T∥αt∥ dt\mathbb E\int_0^T\|\alpha_t\|\,dtE∫0T​∥αt​∥dt, is part of the work.

Difficulty

The fixed point is set-valued. Without uniqueness of maximizers, the best response to (μ,ν)(\mu,\nu)(μ,ν) is a set of controls. Kakutani's theorem in finite dimensions does not apply: the laws live in Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C), which with τψ\tau_\psiτψ​ is neither metrizable nor separable.

The obvious argument would apply Schauder's theorem to μ↦Pα^∘X−1\mu\mapsto P^{\hat\alpha}\circ X^{-1}μ↦Pα^∘X−1 for a measurable selection α^\hat\alphaα^ of the maximizers. It fails twice. A selection need not depend continuously on μ\muμ. And the adjoint process Zμ,νZ^{\mu,\nu}Zμ,ν, which enters the maximizer, depends on (μ,ν)(\mu,\nu)(μ,ν) only through a BSDE, with no pointwise regularity.

Compactness has to come from somewhere other than the coefficients. All laws of the form Pμ,α∘X−1P^{\mu,\alpha}\circ X^{-1}Pμ,α∘X−1 lie in a set Q\mathcal QQ of laws with bounded densities relative to X\mathcal XX. Turning that into compactness for τψ\tau_\psiτψ​ needs the ψ2\psi^2ψ2-moment of XXX to upgrade τ1\tau_1τ1​-convergence to τψ\tau_\psiτψ​-convergence. Continuity in the control law goes through the stable topology on measures over [0,T]×P(A)[0,T]\times\mathcal P(A)[0,T]×P(A).

Formalization scope

The Lean development (namespace WeakMFG.Existence) builds on the published Brownian/Itô/BSDE layer Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic. It commits to these conventions:

  • Base space. It is an arbitrary probability space carrying (ξ,W)(\xi,W)(ξ,W), with the filtration of (ξ,W)(\xi,W)(ξ,W) augmented by null sets. The canonical space Rd×C\mathbb R^d\times\mathcal CRd×C is one instance, and every object of the theorem is a law.
  • State equation. It is read through the L² Itô integral, so solutions are square integrable. "σ>0\sigma>0σ>0" is nonsingularity, and the growth function ρ\rhoρ is monotone.
  • Types. Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ, time is ℝ≥0, and paths are continuous maps on [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • Topologies. Pψ(C)\mathcal P_\psi(\mathcal C)Pψ​(C) is its own type carrying τψ\tau_\psiτψ​. P(A)\mathcal P(A)P(A) has the weak topology and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-field.
  • Densities. Girsanov densities and BSDE solutions are relations. The solution concept asks that a density version exists and that the identities hold for all versions.
  • Optimality. Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α)V^{\mu,q}=J^{\mu,q}(\alpha)Vμ,q=Jμ,q(α) is stated as optimality of α\alphaα against every admissible control; no real supremum is formed.
  • Assumption (E) is sequential continuity, as printed.
  • Assumption (C) is required wherever σ(t,x)\sigma(t,x)σ(t,x) is nonsingular.
  • Control set. AAA is assumed nonempty.

Some formalizations would be trivial and are ruled out. Every clause of Definition 3.4 is stated. No density version may be missing. Optimality is over the whole admissible class, not a subclass. Replacing the goal by a fixed-point statement about the map Φ\PhiΦ is not acceptable, since that is a step of the proof.

Milestone conventions:

  • Milestone (7.4). It adds joint measurability of fff in the control-law argument. The page presupposes it when it integrates fff against νt(dq)\nu_t(dq)νt​(dq).
  • Berge's theorem. It assumes a nonempty KKK.
  • Proposition 7.4. It assumes nonempty compact values (see Significance).

Infrastructure that is reusable beyond this mission:

  • Doléans exponentials of bounded integrands and their LqL^qLq bounds;
  • weak compactness in L1L^1L1 (Dunford–Pettis) for density sets;
  • the stable topology;
  • Cellina's approximate selection theorem;
  • Schauder–Tychonoff fixed points in locally convex spaces.

Contributions to any of these, and alternative proofs that avoid the non-compact-valued fixed point step, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015; arXiv:1307.1152v2 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.1152
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1210.5780
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • M. Huang, R. Malhamé, P. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • E. Pardoux, S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems Control Lett. 14(1), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
  • A. Cellina, Approximation of set valued functions and fixed point theorems, Ann. Mat. Pura Appl. 82, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02410784
  • C. D. Aliprantis, K. C. Border, Infinite Dimensional Analysis, 3rd ed., Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-29587-9
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Probabilistic Analysis of Mean-Field Games 2: The Mean-Field Strategies Form an ε_N-Nash Equilibrium of the N-Player Game, with ε_N ≤ cN^{−1/(d+4)}Research Paper

Motivation

Mean-field games were introduced by Lasry and Lions (2007) and by Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) as limits of stochastic differential games with many symmetric players, each interacting with the others only through the empirical distribution of their states. The limit replaces a game of NNN coupled players by one representative player facing a deterministic flow of distributions that it must reproduce. That flow is the equilibrium condition. The limit object is easier to solve. Whether it says anything about the finite game it came from is a separate question: a mean-field equilibrium is useful only if the strategies it produces are nearly optimal for each of NNN actual players.

Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51, 2013) solve the mean-field game through the stochastic maximum principle. For drifts that are affine and costs that are convex, the equilibrium is the solution of a forward–backward SDE of McKean–Vlasov type. Its existence is the subject of the first mission of this series. This mission formalizes §4 of the paper. The strategies read off from that solution are an approximate Nash equilibrium of the NNN-player game, with an explicit rate in NNN.

Setting

The state space is Rd\mathbb R^dRd and the control space is Rk\mathbb R^kRk, both with the Euclidean norm. Each player iii has a private state UtiU^i_tUti​, driven by its own mmm-dimensional Brownian motion WiW^iWi, the motions being independent. The dynamics are

dUti=b(t,Uti,νˉtN,βti) dt+σ dWti,U0i=x0,νˉtN=1N∑j=1NδUtj,dU^i_t = b(t, U^i_t, \bar\nu^N_t, \beta^i_t)\,dt + \sigma\,dW^i_t,\qquad U^i_0 = x_0,\qquad \bar\nu^N_t = \frac1N\sum_{j=1}^N\delta_{U^j_t},dUti​=b(t,Uti​,νˉtN​,βti​)dt+σdWti​,U0i​=x0​,νˉtN​=N1​j=1∑N​δUtj​​,

where b(t,x,μ,α)=b0(t,μ)+b1(t)x+b2(t)αb(t,x,\mu,\alpha) = b_0(t,\mu) + b_1(t)x + b_2(t)\alphab(t,x,μ,α)=b0​(t,μ)+b1​(t)x+b2​(t)α is affine and σ\sigmaσ is a constant matrix. Player iii chooses a strategy βi\beta^iβi, a process that is progressively measurable for the filtration of (W1,…,WN)(W^1,\dots,W^N)(W1,…,WN) and satisfies E∫0T∣βti∣2dt<∞\mathbb E\int_0^T|\beta^i_t|^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​∣βti​∣2dt<∞. It pays

JˉN,i(β1,…,βN)=E[g(UTi,νˉTN)+∫0Tf(t,Uti,νˉtN,βti) dt].\bar J^{N,i}(\beta^1,\dots,\beta^N) = \mathbb E\Big[g(U^i_T,\bar\nu^N_T) + \int_0^T f(t,U^i_t,\bar\nu^N_t,\beta^i_t)\,dt\Big].JˉN,i(β1,…,βN)=E[g(UTi​,νˉTN​)+∫0T​f(t,Uti​,νˉtN​,βti​)dt].

The costs fff, ggg satisfy the paper's assumptions (A.1)–(A.7): joint convexity in (x,α)(x,\alpha)(x,α) with strong convexity in α\alphaα, C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 regularity, local Lipschitz continuity in the measure argument for the 2-Wasserstein distance W2W_2W2​, and growth conditions.

On the mean-field side, let (Xt,Yt,Zt)(X_t,Y_t,Z_t)(Xt​,Yt​,Zt​) solve the McKean–Vlasov FBSDE (3.1), let μt=PXt\mu_t = \mathbb P_{X_t}μt​=PXt​​, and let uuu be the FBSDE value function. This is a function that is Lipschitz in xxx with linear growth and satisfies Yt=u(t,Xt)Y_t = u(t,X_t)Yt​=u(t,Xt​). Let α^(t,x,μ,y)\hat\alpha(t,x,\mu,y)α^(t,x,μ,y) minimize the Hamiltonian ⟨b,y⟩+f\langle b,y\rangle + f⟨b,y⟩+f over α\alphaα, and let JJJ be the mean-field cost (4.1). The candidate strategies are

αˉtN,i=α^(t,Xti,μt,u(t,Xti)),\bar\alpha^{N,i}_t = \hat\alpha\big(t, X^i_t, \mu_t, u(t,X^i_t)\big),αˉtN,i​=α^(t,Xti​,μt​,u(t,Xti​)),

where (X1,…,XN)(X^1,\dots,X^N)(X1,…,XN) solves the particle system (4.2): the dynamics above, with each player using this feedback against the frozen flow μ\muμ. Each player needs only its own state.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2

There exist c>0c>0c>0 and positive numbers (ϵN)N≥1(\epsilon_N)_{N\ge1}(ϵN​)N≥1​ with ϵN≤cN−1/(d+4)\epsilon_N\le cN^{-1/(d+4)}ϵN​≤cN−1/(d+4) such that, for every N≥1N\ge1N≥1, every player iii and every admissible deviation βi\beta^iβi,

JˉN,i(αˉN,1,…,βi,…,αˉN,N) ≥ JˉN,i(αˉN,1,…,αˉN,N)−ϵN.\bar J^{N,i}(\bar\alpha^{N,1},\dots,\beta^i,\dots,\bar\alpha^{N,N})\ \ge\ \bar J^{N,i}(\bar\alpha^{N,1},\dots,\bar\alpha^{N,N}) - \epsilon_N.JˉN,i(αˉN,1,…,βi,…,αˉN,N) ≥ JˉN,i(αˉN,1,…,αˉN,N)−ϵN​.

The constant and the sequence come before NNN, the player and the deviation.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof, in attack order:

  • Lemma 4.1 (Horowitz–Karandikar): E[W22(μˉN,μ)]≤CN−2/(d+4)\mathbb E[W_2^2(\bar\mu^N,\mu)]\le CN^{-2/(d+4)}E[W22​(μˉ​N,μ)]≤CN−2/(d+4) for i.i.d. samples from μ∈Pd+5\mu\in\mathcal P_{d+5}μ∈Pd+5​.
  • Well-posedness of (4.2).
  • The moment bound (4.4).
  • The transport inequality (4.13).
  • Propagation of chaos (4.11) and its consequence (4.12) for the empirical measure.
  • The equilibrium cost estimate (4.14): JˉN,i(αˉ)=J+O(N−1/(d+4))\bar J^{N,i}(\bar\alpha) = J + O(N^{-1/(d+4)})JˉN,i(αˉ)=J+O(N−1/(d+4)).
  • For a deviation of bounded energy E∫∣β1∣2≤A\mathbb E\int|\beta^1|^2\le AE∫∣β1∣2≤A: (4.17), (4.20) and the lower bound (4.23), JˉN,1≥J−cAN−1/(d+4)\bar J^{N,1}\ge J - c_AN^{-1/(d+4)}JˉN,1≥J−cA​N−1/(d+4).
  • The coercivity (4.25) for deviations of large energy.

Companion: Corollary 4.3

Large deviations are unprofitable for every player (4.27). A bounded deviation of one player keeps every player's cost above J−ϵNJ-\epsilon_NJ−ϵN​ (4.28).

Significance

The theorem justifies the mean-field game as a model of large finite games. Solving one McKean–Vlasov FBSDE produces distributed closed-loop strategies. No player can improve its cost by more than O(N−1/(d+4))O(N^{-1/(d+4)})O(N−1/(d+4)) by deviating, even with a strategy that uses all players' noises. The rate gives a quantitative meaning to "large NNN". The milestones (4.11)–(4.12) are a quantitative propagation-of-chaos result for the particle system driven by the decoupling field. Such results are used on their own in the numerics and statistics of interacting particle systems.

The result is proved in the paper. No part of it has been machine-checked, as far as the platform's records show. The work that remains is to formalize the known proof. That needs Wasserstein estimates for empirical measures (Lemma 4.1, cited by the paper without proof), Gronwall arguments for SDE systems, and the optimality of the mean-field control (Theorem 2.2, the first mission's milestone, used here through J≤J(β1)J\le J(\beta^1)J≤J(β1)). Sharper rates are known in low dimension (Fournier and Guillin, 2015). They would be welcome as variants, but they are not the target.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the deviating player's cost with the mean-field cost of the same strategy. It fails in two places. The deviation changes the empirical measure that every other player sees, so the other players' states are no longer independent copies of XXX. It must be shown that one player of bounded energy moves the population's empirical measure by only O(N−1/(d+4))O(N^{-1/(d+4)})O(N−1/(d+4)) in W2W_2W2​ ((4.17)–(4.20)). The second problem is that the deviation β1\beta^1β1 is adapted to the filtration of all NNN Brownian motions, larger than the one in which the mean-field control problem is posed. The comparison J≤J(β1)J\le J(\beta^1)J≤J(β1) must survive this enlargement. Finally, nothing bounds the energy of a deviation a priori. Deviations of large energy have to be excluded separately by a coercivity estimate ((4.25)), and only then can the rate be obtained uniformly.

Formalization scope

The data live on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), so every norm, M2M_2M2​ and W2W_2W2​ is Euclidean. Matrix norms are operator norms. W2W_2W2​ is the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance 2, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Measures carry Mathlib's σ-algebra on Measure, which on probability measures on Rd\mathbb R^dRd coincides with the paper's Borel σ-field of weak convergence. The SDEs and BSDEs are the published Itô-process predicates of Peng (Peng1990.SMP.SolvesSDE, SolvesBSDE). Solutions also have almost surely continuous paths on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The game filtration is generated by (W1,…,WN)(W^1,\dots,W^N)(W1,…,WN) and augmented by the null sets. Players are indexed by Fin N, so the paper's player 111 is index 000.

The mean-field solution and the game live on two probability spaces. Only μt=PXt\mu_t=\mathbb P_{X_t}μt​=PXt​​, JJJ and uuu pass between them. The value function uuu enters through its properties (3.3), the identity Yt=u(t,Xt)Y_t=u(t,X_t)Yt​=u(t,Xt​) and joint measurability, as in Lemma 3.5. α^\hat\alphaα^ is the chosen minimizer of the Hamiltonian, with default 000; by Lemma 2.1 the default is never used on [0,T]×P2[0,T]\times\mathcal P_2[0,T]×P2​. The assumptions also contain a standing convention the page does not write: fff and ggg are Borel measurable. Without it the expected costs would not be expectations of measurable integrands. Moments and expected energies are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Costs are real expectations, finite under (A.5) for admissible strategies.

The statements exclude the trivializing readings:

  • the flow is the law of the mean-field state, not an arbitrary flow;
  • distances are Euclidean, not sup-norm;
  • the empirical measure is used only for N≥1N\ge1N≥1;
  • W22W_2^2W22​ is never converted to a real number where it could be infinite;
  • the constants ccc, (ϵN)(\epsilon_N)(ϵN​), cAc_AcA​, N0N_0N0​ sit exactly where the page's quantifiers put them;
  • in a deviation the other players keep their processes αˉN,j\bar\alpha^{N,j}αˉN,j, while the empirical measure follows the new states.

The goal does not mention the decoupled copies or Lemma 4.1.

A complete development needs:

  • Wasserstein estimates for empirical measures, which are reusable well beyond this mission;
  • existence, uniqueness and moment bounds for Lipschitz SDE systems with measure-dependent drift;
  • the stochastic-maximum-principle comparison of the first mission.

Contributions on any of these are welcome. Well-posedness of the deviated system (4.5) is used but is not stated on the page; a proof of it is also welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Carmona and F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4):2705–2734, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
  • J.-M. Lasry and P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Japanese Journal of Mathematics 2:229–260, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé and P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Communications in Information and Systems 6(3):221–252, 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • J. Horowitz and R. L. Karandikar, Mean rates of convergence of empirical measures in the Wasserstein metric, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 55(3):261–273, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0427(94)90033-7
  • A.-S. Sznitman, Topics in propagation of chaos, École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XIX, Lecture Notes in Math. 1464, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0085169
  • N. Fournier and A. Guillin, On the rate of convergence in Wasserstein distance of the empirical measure, Probab. Theory Related Fields 162:707–738, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-014-0583-7
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On Synchronous, Asynchronous, and Randomized Best-Response Schemes for Stochastic Nash Games 2: Randomized Inexact Best Response Reaches an ϵ-NE in Explicitly Bounded Expected SG StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many noncooperative problems in communication networks, power markets and supply chains are stochastic Nash games. Each player minimizes an expected cost that depends on its own decision and on the decisions of its rivals, and the expectation can only be sampled, not evaluated. A natural distributed way to compute an equilibrium is the best-response scheme: each player repeatedly replies optimally to the rivals' current strategies. In a stochastic game an exact best response is itself an expectation-valued optimization problem, so a practical scheme replies inexactly, running a few stochastic gradient steps per reply. Lei, Shanbhag, Pang and Sen (arXiv:1704.04578v2; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2020) analyse three such inexact proximal best-response schemes: synchronous, randomized and asynchronous. For each they prove a linear rate of convergence and a bound on the total number of projected stochastic gradient steps.

This mission concerns the randomized scheme. In large games it is unrealistic for all players to update at every round; in the paper's model each player independently decides to update with probability pip_ipi​. This is the game-theoretic analogue of randomized block-coordinate descent (Nesterov 2012; Richtárik–Takáč 2014). A local Poisson clock per player is a special case (Remark 5 of the paper). The synchronous scheme, the paper's Theorem 1, and the asynchronous scheme are separate missions of this series.

Setting

There are N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 players. Player iii chooses xix_ixi​ in a compact convex set Xi⊆RniX_i \subseteq \mathbb R^{n_i}Xi​⊆Rni​ and minimizes

fi(xi,x−i)=E[ψi(xi,x−i;ξ)],f_i(x_i, x_{-i}) = \mathbb E\big[\psi_i(x_i, x_{-i}; \xi)\big],fi​(xi​,x−i​)=E[ψi​(xi​,x−i​;ξ)],

where ξ\xiξ is a random vector and the oracle returns sampled gradients ∇xiψi(x;ξ)\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i(x; \xi)∇xi​​ψi​(x;ξ) with E∥∇xiψi∥2≤Mi2\mathbb E\|\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i\|^2 \le M_i^2E∥∇xi​​ψi​∥2≤Mi2​ (Assumption 1). A Nash equilibrium x∗x^*x∗ is a profile in X=∏iXiX = \prod_i X_iX=∏i​Xi​ from which no player can lower its cost by deviating alone.

For μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 the proximal best response to a profile yyy is

x^i(y)=argmin⁡xi∈Xi[fi(xi,y−i)+μ2∥xi−yi∥2].\widehat x_i(y) = \operatorname*{argmin}_{x_i \in X_i}\Big[f_i(x_i, y_{-i}) + \tfrac{\mu}{2}\|x_i - y_i\|^2\Big].xi​(y)=xi​∈Xi​argmin​[fi​(xi​,y−i​)+2μ​∥xi​−yi​∥2].

The N×NN\times NN×N matrix Γ\GammaΓ has entries γii=μ/(μ+ζi,min⁡)\gamma_{ii} = \mu/(\mu + \zeta_{i,\min})γii​=μ/(μ+ζi,min​) and γij=ζij,max⁡/(μ+ζi,min⁡)\gamma_{ij} = \zeta_{ij,\max}/(\mu + \zeta_{i,\min})γij​=ζij,max​/(μ+ζi,min​), built from the extreme curvatures ζi,min⁡=inf⁡Xλmin⁡(∇xi2fi)\zeta_{i,\min} = \inf_X \lambda_{\min}(\nabla^2_{x_i}f_i)ζi,min​=infX​λmin​(∇xi​2​fi​) and ζij,max⁡=sup⁡X∥∇xixj2fi∥\zeta_{ij,\max} = \sup_X\|\nabla^2_{x_ix_j}f_i\|ζij,max​=supX​∥∇xi​xj​2​fi​∥. Assumption 2 is a=∥Γ∥<1a = \|\Gamma\| < 1a=∥Γ∥<1 (spectral norm).

Algorithm 2. At major iteration kkk, each player iii flips an independent coin χi,k∈{0,1}\chi_{i,k} \in \{0,1\}χi,k​∈{0,1} with P(χi,k=1)=pi>0\mathbb P(\chi_{i,k} = 1) = p_i > 0P(χi,k​=1)=pi​>0, independent of the past information Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ (Assumption 3). If χi,k=1\chi_{i,k} = 1χi,k​=1, the player replaces xi,kx_{i,k}xi,k​ by an inexact proximal best response xi,k+1∈Xix_{i,k+1} \in X_ixi,k+1​∈Xi​ with

E[∥xi,k+1−x^i(xk)∥2∣Fk]≤αi,k2;\mathbb E\big[\|x_{i,k+1} - \widehat x_i(x_k)\|^2 \mid \mathcal F_k\big] \le \alpha_{i,k}^2;E[∥xi,k+1​−xi​(xk​)∥2∣Fk​]≤αi,k2​;

otherwise xi,k+1=xi,kx_{i,k+1} = x_{i,k}xi,k+1​=xi,k​. The accuracy αi,k=ηβi,k+1\alpha_{i,k} = \eta^{\beta_{i,k}+1}αi,k​=ηβi,k​+1 is tied to the number of updates βi,k=∑l<kχi,l\beta_{i,k} = \sum_{l<k}\chi_{i,l}βi,k​=∑l<k​χi,l​ the player has made so far. The reply is computed by ji,k=⌈Qi/η2(βi,k+1)⌉j_{i,k} = \lceil Q_i/\eta^{2(\beta_{i,k}+1)}\rceilji,k​=⌈Qi​/η2(βi,k​+1)⌉ projected stochastic gradient steps

zi,t+1=ΠXi[zi,t−γt(∇xiψi(zi,t,x−i,k;ξi,kt)+μ(zi,t−xi,k))],γt=1μ(t+1),z_{i,t+1} = \Pi_{X_i}\big[z_{i,t} - \gamma_t\big(\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i(z_{i,t}, x_{-i,k}; \xi^t_{i,k}) + \mu(z_{i,t} - x_{i,k})\big)\big],\qquad \gamma_t = \tfrac{1}{\mu(t+1)},zi,t+1​=ΠXi​​[zi,t​−γt​(∇xi​​ψi​(zi,t​,x−i,k​;ξi,kt​)+μ(zi,t​−xi,k​))],γt​=μ(t+1)1​,

from zi,1=xi,kz_{i,1} = x_{i,k}zi,1​=xi,k​, where Qi=2Mi2/μ2+2DXi2Q_i = 2M_i^2/\mu^2 + 2D_{X_i}^2Qi​=2Mi2​/μ2+2DXi​2​ and DXiD_{X_i}DXi​​ is the diameter of XiX_iXi​. The analysis uses the weighted norm ∥x∥P2=∑i∥xi∥2/pi\|x\|_P^2 = \sum_i \|x_i\|^2/p_i∥x∥P2​=∑i​∥xi​∥2/pi​ and the constants a~2=1−pmin⁡(1−a2)\tilde a^2 = 1 - p_{\min}(1 - a^2)a~2=1−pmin​(1−a2), η~2=1−pmin⁡(1−η2)\tilde\eta^2 = 1 - p_{\min}(1 - \eta^2)η~​2=1−pmin​(1−η2) and η~0−2=pmax⁡(η−2−1)+1\tilde\eta_0^{-2} = p_{\max}(\eta^{-2} - 1) + 1η~​0−2​=pmax​(η−2−1)+1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, (34)

Let c~=max⁡{a~,η~}\tilde c = \max\{\tilde a, \tilde\eta\}c~=max{a~,η~​}, q~∈(c~,1)\tilde q \in (\tilde c, 1)q~​∈(c~,1), D=1/(eln⁡(q~/c~))D = 1/(e\ln(\tilde q/\tilde c))D=1/(eln(q~​/c~)), C~=C(∑iN−1pi−1)1/2\tilde C = C(\sum_i N^{-1}p_i^{-1})^{1/2}C~=C(∑i​N−1pi−1​)1/2, D~=Dη/η~\tilde D = D\eta/\tilde\etaD~=Dη/η~​ and ϵ~=ϵ/((Npmax⁡)1/2(C~+D~))∈(0,1)\tilde\epsilon = \epsilon/((Np_{\max})^{1/2}(\tilde C + \tilde D)) \in (0,1)ϵ~=ϵ/((Npmax​)1/2(C~+D~))∈(0,1), where ∥xi,0−xi∗∥≤C\|x_{i,0} - x_i^*\| \le C∥xi,0​−xi∗​∥≤C. After K=⌈ln⁡(1/ϵ~)/ln⁡(1/q~)⌉K = \lceil\ln(1/\tilde\epsilon)/\ln(1/\tilde q)\rceilK=⌈ln(1/ϵ~)/ln(1/q~​)⌉ major iterations, xKx_KxK​ is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-NE2_22​, i.e. E(∑i∥xi,K−xi∗∥2)1/2≤ϵ\mathbb E\big(\sum_i\|x_{i,K} - x_i^*\|^2\big)^{1/2} \le \epsilonE(∑i​∥xi,K​−xi∗​∥2)1/2≤ϵ, and for every player

E[∑k=0K−1ji,kχi,k]≤piQiη2η~02ln⁡(1/η~02)(1ϵ~)ln⁡(1/η~02)/ln⁡(1/q~)+⌈ln⁡(1/ϵ~)ln⁡(1/q~)⌉.\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{k=0}^{K-1} j_{i,k}\chi_{i,k}\Big] \le \frac{p_iQ_i}{\eta^2\tilde\eta_0^2\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)}\Big(\frac1{\tilde\epsilon}\Big)^{\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)/\ln(1/\tilde q)} + \Big\lceil\frac{\ln(1/\tilde\epsilon)}{\ln(1/\tilde q)}\Big\rceil.E[k=0∑K−1​ji,k​χi,k​]≤η2η~​02​ln(1/η~​02​)pi​Qi​​(ϵ~1​)ln(1/η~​02​)/ln(1/q~​)+⌈ln(1/q~​)ln(1/ϵ~)​⌉.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. the Γ\GammaΓ-contraction (5);
  2. its Euclidean form (9);
  3. the fixed-point identity x^(x∗)=x∗\widehat x(x^*) = x^*x(x∗)=x∗;
  4. the one-step descent (A.3) and its contraction form (B.1) in ∥⋅∥P\|\cdot\|_P∥⋅∥P​;
  5. the binomial moments (B.3) and (36) of η±2βi,k\eta^{\pm2\beta_{i,k}}η±2βi,k​;
  6. the elementary inequalities Lemma 2 (zcz≤Dqzzc^z \le Dq^zzcz≤Dqz) and (30) (a geometric sum bounded by an integral);
  7. the linear rate, Lemma 5: E∥xk−x∗∥P≤N(C~+D~)q~k\mathbb E\|x_k - x^*\|_P \le \sqrt N(\tilde C + \tilde D)\tilde q^kE∥xk​−x∗∥P​≤N​(C~+D~)q~​k;
  8. its transfer to the unweighted error, Remark 6;
  9. the inner-loop bound, Lemma 6: E[∥zi,t−x^i(yk)∥2∣Fk]≤Qi/(t+1)\mathbb E[\|z_{i,t} - \widehat x_i(y_k)\|^2 \mid \mathcal F_k] \le Q_i/(t+1)E[∥zi,t​−xi​(yk​)∥2∣Fk​]≤Qi​/(t+1).

Significance

Theorem 2 gives an explicit, non-asymptotic sample complexity for computing a Nash equilibrium of a stochastic game when only a random subset of players acts at each round. Its exponent ln⁡(1/η~02)/ln⁡(1/q~)\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)/\ln(1/\tilde q)ln(1/η~​02​)/ln(1/q~​) quantifies the price of randomization: Remark 7 of the paper shows it reduces to the synchronous exponent exactly when every pi=1p_i = 1pi​=1. Lemma 5 is the first linear-rate statement for inexact randomized best responses in this setting. The weighted-norm argument of App. A–B is the device that makes block-randomized fixed-point iterations contract.

The results are proved on paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof, and the platform holds no stochastic Nash game, proximal best-response map or randomized best-response scheme. A formal proof checks every constant of (34), including the interplay of the random inexactness ηβi,k+1\eta^{\beta_{i,k}+1}ηβi,k​+1 with the random number of steps ji,kj_{i,k}ji,k​. The paper does not prove (5): it adapts it from Facchinei–Pang 2009. A formal proof of (5) closes that gap.

Difficulty

The conditional-expectation bookkeeping is where a naive argument fails. The accuracy αi,k\alpha_{i,k}αi,k​ and the step count ji,kj_{i,k}ji,k​ are random, being functions of the past coins. The coin χi,k\chi_{i,k}χi,k​ must be independent of both the past and the samples the player uses in round kkk. The descent step (A.4) multiplies the coin with the inexactness error, and its factorization uses exactly this joint independence. Bounding the expected work requires the moment generating identities (B.3) and (36) of a binomial count, with two different constants η~\tilde\etaη~​ (through pmin⁡p_{\min}pmin​) and η~0\tilde\eta_0η~​0​ (through pmax⁡p_{\max}pmax​). Merging them gives a false bound. Lemma 6 is a stochastic approximation estimate conditional on Fk\mathcal F_kFk​, at a random, Fk\mathcal F_kFk​-measurable centre x^i(xk)\widehat x_i(x_k)xi​(xk​). Applying the unconditional O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) bound for strongly convex SGD pointwise is not enough. On the deterministic side, (5) needs a mean-value argument along a segment in the product space, using the mixed Hessian blocks.

Formalization scope

Players are Fin N and player iii's space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (n i)). Costs are functions of the whole profile. The Euclidean norm of the vector of block norms and the weighted norm ∥⋅∥P\|\cdot\|_P∥⋅∥P​ are written out explicitly, since Lean's norm on the product type is the sup norm. ∥Γ∥\|\Gamma\|∥Γ∥ is the operator norm on Euclidean RN\mathbb R^NRN. ζi,min⁡\zeta_{i,\min}ζi,min​ is an infimum of Rayleigh quotients. The proximal best response is any map satisfying the argmin property on XXX. ΠXi\Pi_{X_i}ΠXi​​ is any map satisfying the published SpectralProjGrad.Shared.IsProjOnto. Randomness lives on a probability space with a filtration (Fk)(\mathcal F_k)(Fk​), and conditional expectations are Mathlib's condExp.

Statement repairs, all recorded in the items' Formalization Notes:

  • Starting point. x0x_0x0​ is deterministic, with ∥xi,0−xi∗∥≤C\|x_{i,0} - x_i^*\| \le C∥xi,0​−xi∗​∥≤C. The proof's bound ∥x0−x∗∥P≤C(∑ipi−1)1/2\|x_0 - x^*\|_P \le C(\sum_i p_i^{-1})^{1/2}∥x0​−x∗∥P​≤C(∑i​pi−1​)1/2 fails for a random start with only a first-moment bound.
  • Regularity. fif_ifi​ is C2C^2C2 jointly in the profile on a neighbourhood of XXX, which the mixed blocks of (4) require.
  • Independence. Assumption 3 is read as χi,k\chi_{i,k}χi,k​ independent of Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ together with player iii's round-kkk samples (or candidate), as step (A.4) needs.
  • Sampling. Samples are drawn for every player at every round and used only when χi,k=1\chi_{i,k} = 1χi,k​=1; in law this is the paper's scheme.
  • Range of ϵ~\tilde\epsilonϵ~. ϵ~<1\tilde\epsilon < 1ϵ~<1 is assumed.
  • Integrability. Every expectation hypothesis carries an integrability condition.
  • DDD. DDD reads 1/ln⁡((q/c)e)1/\ln((q/c)^e)1/ln((q/c)e) as 1/(eln⁡(q/c))1/(e\ln(q/c))1/(eln(q/c)).
  • Excluded. Statement (35), the case η=a\eta = aη=a, is not formalized.

A formalization in which the coins are almost surely 111 is the synchronous scheme, not this one. Coins and samples here are genuinely random with the stated laws and independence, and the expectation bounding the work is taken over both.

Reusable infrastructure includes the conditional O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) bound for projected SGD on strongly convex problems (Lemma 6), the binomial moment identities (B.3)/(36), and Lemma 2 and (30). Contributions of intermediate lemmas, such as (A.4)–(A.5), (B.2) and the measurability of the iterates, are welcome as separate theorems.

Selected references

  • J. Lei, U. V. Shanbhag, J.-S. Pang, S. Sen, On Synchronous, Asynchronous, and Randomized Best-Response Schemes for Stochastic Nash Games, arXiv:1704.04578v2, 2018 (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04578v2
  • F. Facchinei, J.-S. Pang, Nash equilibria: the variational approach, in Convex Optimization in Signal Processing and Communications, Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804458.013
  • Y. Nesterov, Efficiency of coordinate descent methods on huge-scale optimization problems, SIAM Journal on Optimization 22(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1137/100802001
  • P. Richtárik, M. Takáč, Iteration complexity of randomized block-coordinate descent methods for minimizing a composite function, Mathematical Programming 144, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-012-0614-z
  • H. Robbins, S. Monro, A stochastic approximation method, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22, 1951. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
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