Estimating Variance From High, Low and Closing Prices II: Under the Overshoot Law (9), E(Z ∨ Z′) = aσ√h and E(Z ∨ Z′)² = bσ²hResearch Paper
Motivation
Volatility estimates from daily high, low and closing prices have been used since Parkinson (1980) and Garman and Klass (1980): the range of a day's log-price carries much more information about the volatility than the close alone. Rogers and Satchell (1991) propose an estimator, , that is unbiased for whatever the drift of the log-price. The companion mission (Part I) formalizes that unbiasedness.
Every such estimator meets the same practical problem. The true high and low of the continuous path are never observed; one sees the maximum and minimum of the path sampled at times. The sampled maximum falls short of the true maximum by an amount , and the resulting downward bias is large in practice (Garman and Klass, and Beckers (1983), identified it). Section 3 of Rogers and Satchell proposes a correction: model by a random variable with an explicit law, compute its first two moments exactly, and subtract their effect. The constants that appear,
enter the corrected estimator directly. Their simulations (Tables 1–3 of the paper) show that the correction removes most of the bias.
Setting
Fix a volatility and a sampling mesh (in the paper ). For a level define
The factor is the probability that a Brownian bridge of duration and volatility climbs above level . The factor is a probability density on . Since and decreases continuously to , it is the survival function of a law on . This law is the paper's display (9).
A real random variable has distribution (9) if it is measurable and for every . In the paper, is the overshoot of the continuous maximum over the sampled maximum in the sampling interval to the left of the time at which is attained, and is the overshoot in the interval to the right. The paper then assumes (p. 508) that and are independent, each with distribution (9), and approximates by . Write .
In Lean, overshootSurvival σ h α is , HasOvershootLaw P σ h Z is " has distribution (9) under ", and constA, constB are and .
Formalization targets
Goal: the two moments of (Eq. (11), p. 508, and the display on p. 509)
For and independent with distribution (9), the variables and are integrable, and
Milestones, in the order the paper uses them
- (9), p. 507. The two integral forms of the survival function agree:
- (10), p. 508. .
- Display before (11), p. 508. .
- (12), p. 508. .
- (13), p. 509. .
The goal combines milestones 2–5 through , which the paper uses in (11).
Significance
The result. The two identities are the coefficients of the corrected estimator (5): replacing and by and turns the high–low estimator into an equation whose positive root largely removes the discretization bias. The same constants correct the Garman–Klass estimator (p. 509). Without exact values for and the correction has no concrete form.
Formalizing it. The paper does each of the four double integrals in a line and says "after some calculation" twice. A machine-checked derivation confirms the printed constants, which are reused in the high–low volatility literature. It also states precisely what is exact (moments of the model law (9) under independence) and what is approximation (that the model describes ). To our knowledge none of these identities has been formalized before.
Difficulty
The statements are elementary but none of them is a one-line identity. Each moment is a double or triple improper integral with singular weights on an unbounded domain. The minimum of and couples two such integrals, and the resulting kernels and have to be integrated in closed form over the unit square. Matching and exactly leaves no room for slack. In Lean, every exchange of integration order, change of variables and passage from survival functions to moments has to be justified for non-negative but unbounded functions, and the expectations must be shown finite: the Bochner integral of a non-integrable function is .
Formalization scope
- Model. Random variables live on an arbitrary probability space
(Ω, P)with[IsProbabilityMeasure P]. "Distribution (9)" isMeasurable Z ∧ ∀ α ≥ 0, P.real {α < Z} = G σ h α, imposed only at levels : the formula is even in , and imposing it at negative levels would make the hypothesis unsatisfiable. Independence isIndepFun Z Z' P. and aremaxandmin. - Parameters. and only. The paper's is not needed and not imposed.
- Explicit readings. "E" is the Bochner integral, and every expectation identity carries its integrability (
Integrable, orMemLp … 2for second moments). The conditioning "" in (9) and (10) is the modelling context in which the paper derives the law, not a hypothesis. The paper's "" in (13) is read as , as its first line shows. The integrals in (9) run over and . - Not formalized. The approximate statements and , the densities (6) and (7), and the independence remark of p. 508 are modelling approximations about the random walk, not theorems. The estimators (5) and are definitions with no claim attached. The Brownian-bridge maximum (8) is not stated (its print also has a slip: for ). Section 4 (simulations) is out of scope.
- Non-triviality. The hypotheses are satisfiable for every : a probability measure on with survival function exists, and the two coordinates under its product measure are independent copies. A formalization that stated the survival condition for all would be vacuous and is ruled out. So is one without the integrability conjuncts, which could hold with both sides .
- Related items. The platform's generic identity
survival_mean_ibp(mean as an integral of the survival function, under derivative hypotheses) is related but does not fit this setting. Mathlib's layer-cake formula is the general tool for passing between survival functions and moments. - Welcome contributions. Closed forms for and , which are reusable lemmas, and a general "moments of and of independent variables from their survival functions" lemma.
Selected references
- L. C. G. Rogers and S. E. Satchell, Estimating variance from high, low and closing prices, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(4) (1991), 504–512. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005835
- M. B. Garman and M. J. Klass, On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data, Journal of Business 53(1) (1980), 67–78. https://doi.org/10.1086/296072
- M. Parkinson, The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return, Journal of Business 53(1) (1980), 61–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/296071
- S. Beckers, Variances of security price returns based on high, low and closing prices, Journal of Business 56(1) (1983), 97–112.