On Finding Optimal Policies in Discrete Dynamic Programming with No Discounting 2: f Maximizes Gain and Then Bias Exactly When Its Averaged Finite-Horizon Returns Dominate Every Stationary Policy'sResearch Paper
Motivation
A Markov decision process with finitely many states and actions is usually run either with a discount factor or under the long-run average criterion. Without discounting, the total return over an infinite horizon is typically infinite, and the average return per period ignores everything that happens in any finite stretch of time: two policies with equal gain (average return per period) can differ by a fixed amount of income forever, and the average criterion cannot tell them apart. Finer, undiscounted criteria that break such ties are a standard topic of the MDP literature (Puterman, Markov Decision Processes, Ch. 10), and the paper of this mission is one of their starting points.
Timeline. Howard (1960) introduced policy iteration for the average-return problem. Blackwell (1962) expanded the discounted return of a stationary policy near as , defined 1-optimal ("nearly optimal") policies, and showed that the stationary 1-optimal policies are exactly those that maximize the gain and then the bias . Veinott (1966), the source of this mission, gave a finite algorithm for such policies and, in §5, a characterization of the same set by an undiscounted criterion: comparing the Cesàro averages of the finite-horizon total returns. Later work (Veinott 1969) developed the hierarchy of -discount optimality criteria from this starting point.
Setting
There are finitely many states and a finite set of actions; in state , action earns the income and moves the system to state with probability . A decision rule chooses an action in each state; is the vector with entries , and is the Markov matrix with entries . A policy is a sequence of decision rules, with , and is the stationary policy that uses every period.
The limit matrix exists for every Markov matrix. The gain and bias of are
Vectors are compared coordinatewise. The decision rules of maximal gain form
and those of maximal bias among them form
Finally, the -period total expected return of a policy , starting from each state, is
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 7
For every ,
where the inequality is coordinatewise and the limit is taken in .
Milestones
- Theorem 3 (Blackwell): with as , where and are the unique solutions of and .
- The -step identity (p. 1293): for every .
- (27): .
- (28): with .
- Theorem 4 (Blackwell): is nonempty and is exactly the set of for which is 1-optimal.
Significance
The result. Theorem 7 gives the set , defined through the discount-factor expansion, an interpretation that involves no discounting at all: maximizes gain and then bias exactly when, from every starting state, its Cesàro-averaged finite-horizon returns are in the limit at least those of every other stationary policy. Combined with Theorem 4 it identifies the stationary 1-optimal policies with the stationary policies that are optimal under this average-overtaking comparison. The paper records a consequence (an optimal policy in the average-overtaking sense (26) that is stationary is 1-optimal) and conjectures the converse; that remark and conjecture are not part of this mission.
Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper (Theorems 3 and 4 are Blackwell's). None of them is formalized: the Blackwell expansion (Theorem 3) is an open item on Prove2Me, referenced here, and Theorem 4, the -step identity, (27), (28) and Theorem 7 have no machine-checked proof. A complete development gives the first formal treatment of Cesàro-averaged finite-horizon returns of a finite MDP and their relation to gain and bias.
Difficulty
The paper calls Theorem 7 "an immediate consequence of the representation (28)". For the direction "the limit condition implies " this is accurate: a state where would drive the average to , so , and then the constant terms give the bias comparison over . The converse is where the obvious argument stops. It must hold for every , including ; at a state where for such a , (28) needs , and the definition of only compares biases with gain-maximal rules. That inequality comes from 1-optimality of (Theorem 4) together with the expansion of Theorem 3, not from (28). Proving (27) itself requires the Cesàro convergence and the identity , which rest on Blackwell's Lemma 1 about Markov matrices.
Formalization scope
The development builds on the published Lean model of Blackwell (1962): Model (states St, actions Act, incomes, transition law), Policy (indexed from , so π 0 is ), Qn, V, IsNearlyOptimal (= 1-optimal), limitMatrix, and the closed forms x, y. Conventions:
- State and action sets are finite and nonempty, and every action is available in every state ().
- Vectors are real functions on states with the pointwise order; limits of vectors are coordinatewise; limits in are along the natural numbers. The Cesàro mean in
limitMatrixuses terms rather than Veinott's ; the limit is the same. - and are their closed forms; Theorem 3 asserts they are the unique solutions of Veinott's (2) and (3).
- 1-optimality is Blackwell's "nearly optimal", formulated without , against all policies.
- In Theorem 7 the limit is an extended-real limit, stated as: for every and every state, the real sequence converges in to some . A real-valued limit would make the statement false whenever ; the comparison class is the stationary policies only, and it must not be narrowed to .
The shared module defines and ; this chunk defines . Contributions are welcome for any milestone, and in particular for reusable lemmas about Cesàro means of powers of a Markov matrix, which the proofs of (27) and (28) and Blackwell's Lemma 1 share.
Selected references
- A. F. Veinott, Jr., On Finding Optimal Policies in Discrete Dynamic Programming with No Discounting, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(5):1284–1294, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699272
- D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
- R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Wiley, New York, 1960.
- A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete Dynamic Programming with Sensitive Discount Optimality Criteria, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(5):1635–1660, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697379
- M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887