Scenario Reduction Algorithms in Stochastic Programming III: The Minimal Reduction Distance of a Regular Ternary Scenario TreeResearch Paper
Motivation
Multistage stochastic programs are solved on a finite scenario tree: a discrete probability distribution whose support points are paths of a random process. Realistic trees have far too many scenarios for the resulting optimization problem, so practitioners reduce the tree, keeping of its scenarios and redistributing the probability of the deleted ones. The reduction should keep the reduced distribution as close as possible to the original one in a probability metric that controls the optimal value of the stochastic program (Dupačová, Gröwe-Kuska, Römisch, Math. Program. 95 (2003)).
Choosing the best scenarios is a set-covering problem and NP-hard, and the algorithms used in practice (backward reduction, fast forward selection) are heuristics without error guarantees. Heitsch and Römisch (2003) therefore derived test instances with an exactly known optimum: regular binary and ternary scenario trees, for which the minimal reduction distance has a closed form once is not too small. This mission formalizes the ternary case, Proposition 3.2 of that paper. The binary case (Proposition 3.1) is a separate mission of the same series.
Setting
Fix a depth and branch widths , with . A regular ternary scenario tree has scenarios, one for each index tuple , where is the successor chosen at level . Choosing successor adds the increment , and scenario is the vector with
All scenarios have probability . The distance between scenarios is the maximum norm .
Deleting the scenarios of an index set and moving each deleted scenario's probability to a nearest kept scenario costs the reduction distance
which by Theorem 2.1 of the paper is the optimal transport-type distance between the original distribution and the best distribution supported on the kept scenarios. The minimal reduction distance to scenarios is .
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 3.2 (7/9-solution)
Let and let with and . Then any two distinct scenarios are at distance at least ; there is a set of scenarios each paired with a scenario outside it at distance exactly ; and for each with ,
with the minimum attained.
Milestones
- Distinct scenarios satisfy .
- Every with has .
- The index set of the proof has , and its complement has elements.
- Every has a partner with .
- Example 4.2: for and , for .
Significance
The result gives an exact optimal value for an NP-hard reduction problem on an infinite family of instances. Heitsch and Römisch use it in their numerical section to measure how far the heuristics' reduced trees are from optimal (Examples 4.1 and 4.2 are the binary and ternary test trees of that study). A closed form of this kind is also the only way to certify that a heuristic is exactly optimal on some instances rather than only competitive with other heuristics.
The proposition is proved in the paper, but the published proof of its central step is one sentence: "Similarly as in Proposition 3.1 it can be shown that there exists an index for each …". A formal proof supplies that case analysis, which is absent from the literature. The formalization also settles two points the printed statement leaves loose (see Formalization scope): the count of pairs at distance , and the definition of when some widths vanish. No machine-checked version of this result or of the reduction distance is known to exist.
Difficulty
The lower bound is routine: two distinct scenarios first differ at some level , where their coordinates differ by or . The substance is attainment: one must exhibit, for every , a kept set of size whose every deleted scenario lies at distance exactly from some kept one. The obvious candidate, keeping the scenarios that take the middle branch at level , has every other scenario at distance exactly from a kept one, but it keeps scenarios and so covers only . Going down to kept scenarios forces a deleted scenario and its partner to differ at more than one level, and since coordinates are running sums the differences at levels and accumulate on top of the one at level . The paper's proof of this step is not written out, and it depends on the widths of the two levels below : the hypothesis is essential, and the result is false without it (for and one has , not ).
Formalization scope
- A scenario is an index tuple ; is the successor at paper level , with values standing for the paper's . The widths are , of which only are used; the standing assumption (p. 196) is the hypothesis for . Scenarios live in , whose Mathlib norm is the maximum norm. Probabilities are uniform, .
- is defined for a general finite index set, probabilities and cost, with the inner minimum a
Finset.inf'over the complement of ; the complement must be nonempty, so no default value arises. is stated asIsLeastof the set of all values with : the goal asserts both the lower bound for every and attainment by some . A formalization that exhibits a single with , or states an infimum without attainment, or drops any hypothesis on , is a different (and in the last case false) statement. - is written , and as .
- Pairs. As printed, "there are distinct pairs of scenarios such that the distance between the members of each pair is exactly " is false as an exact count (for and there are 130 such pairs, not 21). The goal states what the proof constructs: a set of scenarios, each paired with a scenario outside at distance exactly .
- . The paper defines by testing whether the increments vanish. When one of is this no longer identifies the middle branch and the count fails, although the proposition remains true. The formalization defines by branch indices (middle branch versus outer branches), which agrees with the paper whenever these three widths are positive. No positivity hypothesis is added to the goal.
- Welcome contributions: a reusable library for regular scenario trees (first differing level, distance of paths), and the case analysis of milestone 4. The binary mission of this series needs the same lower-bound argument with the constant .
Selected references
- H. Heitsch, W. Römisch, Scenario Reduction Algorithms in Stochastic Programming, Computational Optimization and Applications 24 (2003), 187–206. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021805924152
- J. Dupačová, N. Gröwe-Kuska, W. Römisch, Scenario reduction in stochastic programming: An approach using probability metrics, Mathematical Programming 95 (2003), 493–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-002-0331-0