Robust Control of Markov Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Matrices 2: The Robust Bellman Recursion for Discounted Infinite-Horizon MDPsResearch Paper
Motivation
A Markov decision process (MDP) is solved by dynamic programming only when its transition probabilities are known. In practice they are estimated from data, and the optimal policy of the estimated model can perform badly on the true one. Nilim and El Ghaoui (Oper. Res. 53(5), 2005) showed that, when the uncertainty on the transition matrices has a product ("rectangular") structure, the robust problem, in which the controller minimises the worst expected cost over all admissible transition matrices, keeps the structure of dynamic programming. The robust Bellman operator replaces the expectation of the next-stage value by a support function of the uncertainty set. That operator is the basis of later work on robust MDPs and robust reinforcement learning.
Timeline:
- Bagnell, Ng and Schneider (2001) considered the max–min value and stated without proof that it is computed by the recursion below.
- Iyengar (Math. Oper. Res. 30(2), 2005; technical report 2003) independently proved the robust Bellman recursion for the discounted infinite-horizon case.
- Nilim and El Ghaoui (2005), Theorem 3, prove the recursion and perfect duality of the stationary discounted game. This mission formalizes that theorem.
Setting
The state space is and the action set is finite and nonempty. Each state–action pair has a cost , and costs are discounted by a factor : the cost at stage is .
Write for the probability simplex. For each action and state a nonempty set is given. It is the set of distributions of the next state that nature may use from state under action . No convexity or closedness is assumed. Uncertainty is rectangular: the admissible transition matrices for action form the product , so every row is chosen independently.
A stationary control policy applies one decision rule at every stage; is the set of them. A stationary policy of nature fixes one matrix for each action and uses it forever. Nature chooses after the controller.
From an initial state , the state distribution evolves as , . The discounted cost is
The support function of a set is . The robust Bellman operator and, for a stationary policy , the robust evaluation operator act on by
The two values of the game are
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3 (Robust Bellman Recursion)
There is a unique with , i.e.
value iteration converges to from every starting vector (20), and
In addition, every policy that picks a minimising action in (19) is optimal (21), every nature policy whose rows attain is optimal for nature (22), and for each stationary the worst-case cost is , where is the unique fixed point of (23).
Milestones
- Lemma 2 (corrected): for a nondecreasing sup-norm contraction and , the program s.t. has value at the fixed point , every feasible satisfies , and is the unique optimizer when .
- The operators of (29) and of (30) are nondecreasing and -Lipschitz in .
- (26): .
- (28) ⇒ (23): .
- (27) ⇒ (19): .
Significance
The theorem makes the robust discounted problem as tractable as the nominal one. The optimal robust policy is stationary, deterministic and computed by value iteration. Each iteration evaluates one support function per state–action pair, and the paper computes these efficiently for likelihood and entropy uncertainty sets (§§5–6). Perfect duality means that the order of play does not change the value: announcing the policy to an adversarial nature costs nothing. The sequel in this series (Theorem 4) uses Theorem 3 to show that restricting to stationary policies loses nothing.
The result is proved in the paper and, independently, by Iyengar (2005). No machine-checked proof of it is known to exist. Mathlib provides the Banach fixed-point theorem, but it has no MDP library, no discounted cost along a Markov chain and no robust Bellman operator. The mission produces that layer.
Difficulty
The fixed-point half is a direct application of the Banach fixed-point theorem once the -contraction is established. The substance is the link between the fixed point and the probabilistic cost, and the duality.
- is an infinite series along a Markov chain. Identifying it with the solution of a linear system requires summing a matrix geometric series.
- Nature's sets are neither closed nor convex, so its maxima are suprema that need not be attained. The worst case over must be approached by rows that nearly attain the support function, with an error controlled through the contraction.
- The min–max and max–min values are taken over different information structures. Equality has to come from the fixed point, not from a minimax theorem: the policy set is finite and discrete and nature's set is not convex, so no convexity argument applies.
Formalization scope
- is
Fin n → ℝ, with the componentwise order and Mathlib's sup metric, which is . - The model (
RobustMDP.Discounted.Model) carries the costs, the discount (the range printed in Theorem 3; §4 prints ) and the row sets. The row sets are assumed nonempty and contained in and nothing else. Nonemptiness is implicit in the paper. - is
Fin n → A. is the subtype ofA → Fin n → Fin n → ℝwhose rows lie in the row sets, which encodes rectangularity. - is a
tsumof the discounted stage costs along the forward state distribution. The terms are nonnegative and at most , so the series is summable and thetsumis the limit of the -stage costs, the paper's definition. - is a real
sSup. It is the genuine supremum because every set it is applied to is nonempty and inside . - Every "max" over nature is a supremum:
IsLUB, or⨆inside , whose inner sets are shown bounded by conclusion (23). Minima over the finite and over are⨅andFinset.inf'. The argmax rows of (22) appear only as a hypothesis on a given nature policy that attains them. - Corrected statements:
- Lemma 2 is false as printed for with zero entries, so uniqueness of the optimizer is stated only for .
- In (30), is read as .
- The proof's references to "Lemma 1", "(15) and (16)" and "(14)" are read as Lemma 2, (27)–(28) and (26).
- Defining as the fixed point of would make milestone (26) a tautology and conclusion (23) nearly so. The cost here is the probabilistic series, and the fixed-point characterizations must be proved.
- Welcome contributions include a reusable library of discounted Markov chain costs on finite state spaces (the geometric-series identity behind (26)) and support-function lemmas on the simplex (monotonicity, the bound ). Both are needed by the other missions of this series.
Selected references
- A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, Robust Control of Markov Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Matrices, Operations Research 53(5):780–798, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0216
- G. N. Iyengar, Robust Dynamic Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2):257–280, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1040.0129
- J. A. Bagnell, A. Y. Ng, J. Schneider, Solving Uncertain Markov Decision Processes, Technical Report CMU-RI-TR-01-25, Carnegie Mellon University, 2001. https://www.ri.cmu.edu/publications/solving-uncertain-markov-decision-processes/
- M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887