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Operations Research

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The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning IV: Variance-Reduced Mirror Descent for Finite-Sum ProblemsTextbook

Motivation

Empirical-risk-minimization objectives in machine learning are finite sums: Ψ(x)=1m∑i=1mfi(x)+h(x)\Psi(x) = \frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m f_i(x) + h(x)Ψ(x)=m1​∑i=1m​fi​(x)+h(x), one smooth term fif_ifi​ per training example (or per worker, in a distributed setting), plus a simple nonsmooth regularizer hhh. Chapter 4's basic stochastic mirror descent handles this by sampling a single random component gradient ∇fit(x)\nabla f_{i_t}(x)∇fit​​(x) as an unbiased estimator of ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) — but that estimator's variance is a constant throughout the algorithm, which caps the achievable convergence rate. Variance-reduced mirror descent asks a sharper question: can an unbiased finite-sum gradient estimator be built whose variance itself vanishes as the algorithm approaches the optimum? The answer — periodic full-gradient snapshots combined with single-component corrections — is the SVRG-style idea this mission formalizes in Lan's general-norm mirror-descent framework, with an explicit, sampling-distribution-dependent constant rather than a generic O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅).

Setting

Fix a closed convex set XXX in a real normed space EEE, and the finite-sum composite problem min⁡x∈X{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)}\min_{x\in X}\{\Psi(x):=f(x)+h(x)\}minx∈X​{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)} (Eq. (5.3.1)), where f(x)=1m∑i=1mfi(x)f(x)=\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m f_i(x)f(x)=m1​∑i=1m​fi​(x) is the average of mmm smooth convex component functions, each with LiL_iLi​-Lipschitz gradient ∇fi\nabla f_i∇fi​ (∥∇fi(x)−∇fi(y)∥∗≤Li∥x−y∥\|\nabla f_i(x)-\nabla f_i(y)\|_*\le L_i\|x-y\|∥∇fi​(x)−∇fi​(y)∥∗​≤Li​∥x−y∥), and hhh is a simple, possibly nondifferentiable convex function. fff is possibly μ\muμ-strongly convex, μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0 (Eq. (5.3.2)); this mission's goal takes μ=0\mu=0μ=0 (§5.3.1, "Smooth Problems Without Strong Convexity"). A fixed probability distribution Q={q1,…,qm}Q=\{q_1,\dots,q_m\}Q={q1​,…,qm​} on the component indices governs the algorithm's random sampling, and

LQ:=1mmax⁡i=1,…,mLiqiL_Q := \frac{1}{m}\max_{i=1,\dots,m}\frac{L_i}{q_i}LQ​:=m1​i=1,…,mmax​qi​Li​​

is the section's key aggregate smoothness constant (Eq. (5.3.4)), replacing the plain average LLL wherever component-wise variance enters the analysis. Variance-reduced mirror descent (Algorithm 5.6) is a multi-epoch method: each epoch of length TsT_sTs​ recomputes a full gradient ∇f(x~)\nabla f(\tilde x)∇f(x~) at a snapshot point x~\tilde xx~, then runs TsT_sTs​ inner iterations using the estimator Gt:=(∇fit(xt)−∇fit(x~))/(qitm)+∇f(x~)G_t := \big(\nabla f_{i_t}(x_t)-\nabla f_{i_t}(\tilde x)\big)/(q_{i_t}m) + \nabla f(\tilde x)Gt​:=(∇fit​​(xt​)−∇fit​​(x~))/(qit​​m)+∇f(x~) and the mirror-descent-with-composite-term update xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈X{γ[⟨Gt,x⟩+h(x)]+V(xt,x)}x_{t+1}:=\arg\min_{x\in X}\{\gamma[\langle G_t,x\rangle+h(x)]+V(x_t,x)\}xt+1​:=argminx∈X​{γ[⟨Gt​,x⟩+h(x)]+V(xt​,x)}, where VVV is the Bregman divergence of a fixed distance-generating function, exactly as in Chapters 3-4.

Formalization targets

Goal — Corollary 5.8

With θ=1\theta=1θ=1, γ=1/(16LQ)\gamma=1/(16L_Q)γ=1/(16LQ​), and the doubling epoch schedule T1=7T_1=7T1​=7, Ts=2Ts−1T_s=2T_{s-1}Ts​=2Ts−1​ (Eq. (5.3.17)),

E[Ψ(xˉS)−Ψ(x∗)]≤82S−1[114(Ψ(x0)−Ψ(x∗))+16LQ V(x0,x∗)]\mathbb E[\Psi(\bar x_S)-\Psi(x^*)] \le \frac{8}{2^{S-1}}\left[\frac{11}{4}\big(\Psi(x_0)-\Psi(x^*)\big)+16L_Q\,V(x_0,x^*)\right]E[Ψ(xˉS​)−Ψ(x∗)]≤2S−18​[411​(Ψ(x0​)−Ψ(x∗))+16LQ​V(x0​,x∗)]

for every epoch count S≥1S\ge1S≥1, where xˉS\bar x_SxˉS​ is the weighted average of the epoch snapshots (Eq. (5.3.16)).

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 5.12 — the per-component gradient-variation bound 1m∑i1mqi∥∇fi(x)−∇fi(x∗)∥∗2≤2LQ[Ψ(x)−Ψ(x∗)]\frac1m\sum_i\frac1{mq_i}\|\nabla f_i(x)-\nabla f_i(x^*)\|_*^2 \le 2L_Q[\Psi(x)-\Psi(x^*)]m1​∑i​mqi​1​∥∇fi​(x)−∇fi​(x∗)∥∗2​≤2LQ​[Ψ(x)−Ψ(x∗)], the basic smoothness consequence from which the estimator's variance bound is built.
  • Lemma 5.13 — unbiasedness (E[δt]=0\mathbb E[\delta_t]=0E[δt​]=0) and two variance bounds (E[∥δt∥∗2]≤2LQ[… ]\mathbb E[\|\delta_t\|_*^2]\le 2L_Q[\dots]E[∥δt​∥∗2​]≤2LQ​[…] and ≤4LQ[… ]\le 4L_Q[\dots]≤4LQ​[…]) for the variance-reduced estimator's error δt:=Gt−∇f(xt)\delta_t:=G_t-\nabla f(x_t)δt​:=Gt​−∇f(xt​).
  • Lemma 5.14 — the one-step progress bound combining Lemma 5.13's variance control with the mirror-descent update's three-point inequality.
  • Theorem 5.6 — the general epoch-level convergence bound (with an arbitrary epoch-length schedule TsT_sTs​ and stepsize γ\gammaγ satisfying 4LQγ≤14L_Q\gamma\le14LQ​γ≤1) that Corollary 5.8 instantiates.

Every constant is exactly the book's: LQL_QLQ​'s own sampling-distribution-dependent definition (never specialized to uniform qi=1/mq_i=1/mqi​=1/m), and Corollary 5.8's explicit 8/2S−18/2^{S-1}8/2S−1, 11/411/411/4, 16LQ16L_Q16LQ​ — not a generic O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) — are all taken verbatim.

Significance

This is the series' first genuinely finite-sum result: unlike Chapters 3-4's single abstract objective fff, here fff is structurally a named average of mmm component functions, and the sampling distribution {qi}\{q_i\}{qi​} over those components is a first-class free parameter of both the algorithm and the analysis (not fixed to uniform sampling) — LQL_QLQ​ itself depends on this choice, and a formalization that hard-codes qi=1/mq_i=1/mqi​=1/m would understate what Lemma 5.12's own proof needs. Getting Theorem 5.6/Corollary 5.8 right also requires keeping two nested indices straight: inner iterations ttt within an epoch, and outer epoch counts sss, with the convergence bound stated in terms of the epoch count SSS alone — and keeping the two "gap" quantities Ψ(x0)−Ψ(x∗)\Psi(x_0)-\Psi(x^*)Ψ(x0​)−Ψ(x∗) (an objective-value gap) and V(x0,x∗)V(x_0,x^*)V(x0​,x∗) (a Bregman-divergence gap) distinct throughout, since they enter Corollary 5.8's final bound with different explicit coefficients (11/411/411/4 vs. 16LQ16L_Q16LQ​) and neither generically bounds the other.

No result on the platform models a finite-sum objective with mmm named component functions sampled by a general index distribution {qi}\{q_i\}{qi​}, a variance-reduction snapshot/anchor point, or this specific SVRG-style estimator, as of 2026-09-18 (q=finite sum, q=variance reduction, q=SVRG, q=component function, q=variance reduced gradient, q=mirror descent finite sum — see Prior art below).

Difficulty

The central difficulty is Theorem 5.6's own epoch-weight sequence wsw_sws​: the book defines ws:=(1−4LQγ)(Ts−1−1)−4LQγTsw_s:=(1-4L_Q\gamma)(T_{s-1}-1)-4L_Q\gamma T_sws​:=(1−4LQ​γ)(Ts−1​−1)−4LQ​γTs​ explicitly only for s≥2s\ge2s≥2 (Eq. (5.3.14)), yet the displayed sums ∑s=1Sws\sum_{s=1}^S w_s∑s=1S​ws​ in (5.3.15)-(5.3.16) run from s=1s=1s=1. A 2026-09-19 revision found that this, combined with the epoch snapshot x~s\tilde x_sx~s​ being constrained only by membership in XXX and not tied to the algorithm's own dynamics, made the originally drafted statements false, not merely incomplete: an adversarial, unboundedly-large-Ψ\PsiΨ, ω\omegaω-independent x~1\tilde x_1x~1​ together with w1→∞w_1\to\inftyw1​→∞ violates the stated conclusion. The fix restores the connection via an auxiliary epoch-boundary sequence and the per-epoch progress inequality Theorem 5.6's own proof derives from Lemma 5.14 (see epoch_convergence_bound's hepoch hypothesis), and resolves w1w_1w1​ by extending (5.3.14)'s domain to s≥1s\ge1s≥1 via a fixed "epoch 0" length T0T_0T0​ — w_1 is no longer left free beyond positivity. finite_sum_variance_reduced_rate instantiates T0:=T1/2=3.5T_0:=T_1/2=3.5T0​:=T1​/2=3.5 concretely, reproducing the arithmetic Corollary 5.8's own proof is internally consistent with (w1=3/4(3.5−1)−1/4⋅7=1/8w_1 = 3/4(3.5-1)-1/4\cdot7 = 1/8w1​=3/4(3.5−1)−1/4⋅7=1/8, matching the closed form (1/8)T1−3/4=1/8(1/8)T_1-3/4=1/8(1/8)T1​−3/4=1/8) — this was previously only a documented-but-unresolved observation, not yet a stated hypothesis.

Formalization scope

All five items are stated over a general real normed space [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E], matching the mirror-descent chunks' general-norm convention (never specialized to Euclidean space or squared distance) — VVV is a free two-point function throughout, and each ∇fi\nabla f_i∇fi​, ∇f\nabla f∇f, GtG_tGt​ are continuous linear functionals E →L[ℝ] ℝ, whose Mathlib operator norm supplies the dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​ with no separate definition needed. This is the trivializing formalization this mission rules out: hard-coding qi=1/mq_i=1/mqi​=1/m (uniform sampling) or V(x,y)=12∥x−y∥2V(x,y)=\frac12 \|x-y\|^2V(x,y)=21​∥x−y∥2 (Euclidean Bregman divergence) would understate both LQL_QLQ​'s dependence on the sampling distribution (the whole point of Lemma 5.12's bound) and the general-norm apparatus the rest of this book series shares.

Ψ(x_0)-Ψ(x^*) and V(x_0,x^*) are kept as two syntactically distinct terms throughout — never conflated or bounded one by the other — matching Corollary 5.8's own two separate coefficients. Corollary 5.8's own explicit constants (8/2S−18/2^{S-1}8/2S−1, 11/411/411/4, 16LQ16L_Q16LQ​) are stated verbatim rather than left as an unspecified O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), per Hard Rule 6.

Left out of scope, for time: the gradient-computation-count complexity bound (Eq. (5.3.19), an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) statement about total oracle calls, not a convergence-rate inequality on Ψ\PsiΨ) and §5.3.2's strongly-convex case (Theorem 5.7, a geometric-decay bound Δs≤ρΔs−1\Delta_s\le\rho\Delta_{s-1}Δs​≤ρΔs−1​ under μ>0\mu>0μ>0) are natural continuations reusing this mission's variance_reduced_progress_bound milestone, not attempted here.

Prior art

q=finite sum, q=variance reduction, q=SVRG, q=component function, q=variance reduced gradient, and q=mirror descent finite sum were all searched on 2026-09-18. The only topically-adjacent hit across all six queries is ShiOptRates.Stochastic.variance_purchase_ classical ("Classical variance reduction is cost-neutral..."), which models plain minibatch SGD on a smooth objective with an i.i.d.-noise oracle characterized by a single scalar variance σ^2\hat\sigma^2σ^2 and a minibatch-size trade-off — no finite-sum structure with mmm named component functions, no sampling distribution {qi}\{q_i\}{qi​}, no snapshot/anchor point x~\tilde xx~, and a different question (cost-neutrality of minibatch size vs. this mission's convergence rate for a fixed variance-reduction scheme). Not reused; every item in this mission is drafted fresh.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 5, §5.3. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • R. Johnson, T. Zhang, "Accelerating stochastic gradient descent using predictive variance reduction," Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2013 (the SVRG estimator this section's gradient estimator generalizes to the composite mirror-descent setting).
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, "Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming," SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(4), 2009, pp. 1574-1609.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning III: Stochastic Mirror DescentTextbook

Motivation

Machine learning's canonical training objective — minimize an expected or empirical risk over a data distribution — is almost never observed exactly: at each step an algorithm sees only a noisy gradient sample (a minibatch gradient, a single-example gradient, a simulation draw). Stochastic mirror descent (Nemirovski, Juditsky, Lan & Shapiro 2009) is the modern, general-norm answer to "what happens to first-order convergence guarantees when the gradient itself is a random variable": it takes the deterministic mirror-descent scheme of the previous chapter and replaces the exact subgradient with an unbiased stochastic estimate, and asks for both an expected convergence rate and, when the noise is well-behaved, an explicit probability-of-large-deviation guarantee. This is the theoretical backbone of stochastic gradient descent as used in practice.

Setting

Fix a nonempty closed convex set XXX in a real normed space EEE, and a convex f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb Rf:X→R with f∗:=min⁡x∈Xf(x)f^*:=\min_{x\in X}f(x)f∗:=minx∈X​f(x) and x∗x^*x∗ an arbitrary minimizer, exactly as in Chapter 3. A stochastic oracle G(x,ξ)G(x,\xi)G(x,ξ), queried at a point xxx with a fresh random sample ξ\xiξ, returns an estimate of a subgradient g(x)∈∂f(x)g(x)\in\partial f(x)g(x)∈∂f(x): E[G(x,ξ)]=g(x)\mathbb E[G(x,\xi)] = g(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=g(x) (unbiasedness), ∥g(x)∥∗≤M\|g(x)\|_*\le M∥g(x)∥∗​≤M (a dual-norm Lipschitz bound, Eq. (4.1.7)), and E[∥G(x,ξ)−g(x)∥∗2]≤σ2\mathbb E[\|G(x,\xi)-g(x)\|_*^2]\le\sigma^2E[∥G(x,ξ)−g(x)∥∗2​]≤σ2 (a second-moment/variance bound). The stochastic mirror-descent update is exactly Chapter 3's mirror-descent update with Gt:=G(xt,ξt)G_t := G(x_t,\xi_t)Gt​:=G(xt​,ξt​) in place of the deterministic gtg_tgt​: xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈Xγt⟨Gt,x⟩+V(xt,x)x_{t+1} := \arg\min_{x\in X}\gamma_t\langle G_t,x\rangle + V(x_t,x)xt+1​:=argminx∈X​γt​⟨Gt​,x⟩+V(xt​,x) (Eq. (4.1.6)), where VVV is the Bregman divergence of a fixed distance-generating function ν\nuν.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 4.1

E[f(xˉsk)]−f∗≤(∑t=skγt)−1(E[V(xs,x∗)]+(M2+σ2)∑t=skγt2).\mathbb E[f(\bar x^k_s)] - f^* \le \Big(\sum_{t=s}^k\gamma_t\Big)^{-1}\Big(\mathbb E[V(x_s,x^*)] + (M^2+\sigma^2)\sum_{t=s}^k\gamma_t^2\Big).E[f(xˉsk​)]−f∗≤(t=s∑k​γt​)−1(E[V(xs​,x∗)]+(M2+σ2)t=s∑k​γt2​).

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 3.4, invoked for the stochastic update: the same three-point inequality as the deterministic mirror-descent update, restated with the stochastic gradient functional GtG_tGt​ in place of gtg_tgt​ — the book's own remark ("It can be easily seen that the result in Lemma 3.4 holds with gtg_tgt​ replaced by GtG_tGt​") is exactly what licenses treating this as the same algebraic fact for a fixed sample path.
  • Lemma 4.1: the martingale-difference deviation bound, a Chernoff-type concentration inequality for a conditionally sub-Gaussian martingale-difference sequence — the chapter's general-purpose probabilistic tool, proved independently of the optimization setting.

Every constant is exactly the book's; M2+σ2M^2+\sigma^2M2+σ2 (not a generic O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅)) is the goal's own noise-dependent constant, taken verbatim.

Significance

This is the first mission in the series to leave the purely deterministic, real-analytic setting of Chapters 2-3 and formalize a genuinely probabilistic convergence guarantee: an expectation taken over an entire random algorithm trajectory ξ1,…,ξk\xi_1,\dots,\xi_kξ1​,…,ξk​, not merely over a single random variable. Getting the goal theorem's statement right requires being explicit about exactly which quantities are random (the iterates xtx_txt​, hence f(xˉsk)f(\bar x_s^k)f(xˉsk​) and V(xs,x∗)V(x_s,x^*)V(xs​,x∗)) and which are deterministic constants fixed in advance (M,σ,γtM,\sigma,\gamma_tM,σ,γt​), and about the precise mathematical content of "the stochastic gradient's bias vanishes after conditioning on the past" — Lemma 4.1 is included specifically because it is the general machine that makes that vanishing rigorous, independent of the optimization application.

No result matching stochastic mirror descent, Assumption 4's sub-Gaussian/light-tail condition, or this martingale-difference concentration lemma exists on the platform as of 2026-09-18 (q= stochastic gradient, q=stochastic mirror descent, q=martingale, q=sub-Gaussian — see Prior art below for what these queries actually returned).

Difficulty

The central difficulty is disentangling which facts in the chapter's proof genuinely need measure theory and which do not. The per-step algorithmic relations — xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​'s minimality, fff's subgradient inequality at xtx_txt​, the dual-norm bound on ggg — hold for every sample path individually and are formalized pointwise in ω\omegaω, exactly as chunk 03-deterministic formalizes its deterministic analogues; only the second-moment bound and the final expectation inequality are genuine integrals. The one place this pointwise treatment cannot simply mirror the deterministic case is the noise cross-term E[γt⟨δt,xt−x∗⟩]=0\mathbb E[\gamma_t\langle\delta_t,x_t-x^*\rangle]=0E[γt​⟨δt​,xt​−x∗⟩]=0: in the book's proof this vanishes because δt=Gt−g(xt)\delta_t=G_t-g(x_t)δt​=Gt​−g(xt​) is conditionally mean-zero given the past and xtx_txt​ is a function of the past (the martingale-difference property, via the tower property of conditional expectation) — a genuinely non-pointwise fact. Rather than thread an explicit filtration through the goal theorem's own statement (which Lemma 4.1 already does, as the chapter's dedicated home for that machinery), the goal theorem takes this post-tower-property consequence directly as a named hypothesis (hcross); see Formalization scope.

Formalization scope

stochastic_mirror_iterate_three_point and stochastic_mirror_descent_bound are stated over a general real normed space [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E], matching chunk 03-deterministic's general-norm milestones (mirror_iterate_three_point/mirror_descent_bound) rather than the Euclidean/inner-product specialization of that chunk's §3.1 items — Chapter 4's own stochastic mirror descent is presented directly in the general-norm framework of §3.2, with no Euclidean-only warm-up. VVV is left a free two-point function (never hard-coded to a squared Euclidean distance), and the stochastic gradient GtG_tGt​ and the subgradient selector ggg are continuous linear functionals E →L[ℝ] ℝ, whose Mathlib operator norm supplies the dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​ with no separate definition needed — the same trivializing formalization chunk 03-deterministic rules out (specializing VVV to the Euclidean case) applies here and is ruled out the same way.

martingale_difference_deviation_bound (Lemma 4.1) is a standalone probabilistic result, formalized with Mathlib's MeasureTheory.Filtration and condExp machinery: the sequence ξ[t]\xi_{[t]}ξ[t]​'s generated filtration, ζt\zeta_tζt​'s Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurability, and the two conditional-expectation hypotheses (conditional mean zero, conditional sub-Gaussian tail) are all literal translations of the book's own E|ξ[t-1] notation.

Left out of scope, for time: Assumption 4 (the light-tail/sub-Gaussian oracle assumption), Proposition 4.1 (the large-deviation bound under Assumption 4, which chains Lemma 4.1's concentration bound with the constant stepsize policy (4.1.11) and a second Markov-inequality argument on ∑γt2∥δt∥∗2\sum\gamma_t^2\|\delta_t\|_*^2∑γt2​∥δt​∥∗2​), Lemma 4.2 and Theorem 4.2 (the smooth-fff case, §4.1.2, requiring a separate recursion and averaging convention xtavx_t^{av}xtav​). All four are natural continuations reusing this mission's stochastic_mirror_iterate_three_point and/or martingale_difference_deviation_bound; a later mission or an amendment to this one could add them without touching what is here. Per Hard Rule 7 (faithfulness over coverage), a genuinely faithful formalization of Proposition 4.1 in particular — which needs Assumption 4's own conditional-MGF hypothesis threaded consistently with Lemma 4.1's, plus the constant-stepsize substitution and a second concentration argument — was judged to need more time than this session's budget allowed to do without shortcuts; it is named here rather than approximated.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 4, §4.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, "Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming," SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(4), 2009, pp. 1574-1609.
  • H. Robbins, S. Monro, "A stochastic approximation method," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22(3), 1951, pp. 400-407 (origin of stochastic approximation).
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning II: Subgradient Descent, Mirror Descent and Accelerated Gradient DescentTextbook

Motivation

Gradient descent's convergence rate for a general smooth convex problem is O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) in the function-value gap; Nemirovski and Yudin (1983) proved that no first-order method can do better than O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) is achievable, and Nesterov (1983, 1988, 2004) constructed the first method attaining it — the accelerated (or "fast") gradient method. For thirty years this was the standard route to O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2)-rate solvers in convex optimization, and the technique underlies essentially every modern accelerated first-order method used at scale in machine learning (accelerated SGD, momentum methods, Nesterov-style extensions of Adam). The two building blocks this mission formalizes on the way there — subgradient descent (Polyak, 1960s) and mirror descent (Nemirovski & Yudin, 1983) — are themselves the default tools whenever the objective is nonsmooth or the constraint set's natural geometry is not Euclidean (e.g. the probability simplex, where mirror descent with the entropic distance-generating function beats projected subgradient descent by a n/ln⁡n\sqrt{n/\ln n}n/lnn​ factor).

Setting

Fix a nonempty closed convex set XXX (in Lean: a normed real vector space EEE, X : Set E) and a convex f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb{R}f:X→R; write f∗:=min⁡x∈Xf(x)f^* := \min_{x\in X} f(x)f∗:=minx∈X​f(x) and x∗x^*x∗ for an arbitrary minimizer. The projected-subgradient update is xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈Xγt⟨g(xt),x⟩+12∥x−xt∥22x_{t+1} := \arg\min_{x\in X}\gamma_t\langle g(x_t),x\rangle + \tfrac12\|x-x_t\|_2^2xt+1​:=argminx∈X​γt​⟨g(xt​),x⟩+21​∥x−xt​∥22​ for a subgradient g(xt)∈∂f(xt)g(x_t)\in\partial f(x_t)g(xt​)∈∂f(xt​) and stepsize γt>0\gamma_t>0γt​>0. Its generalization, mirror descent, replaces the Euclidean proximal term with a Bregman divergence V(x,z):=ν(z)−ν(x)−⟨∇ν(x),z−x⟩V(x,z) := \nu(z) - \nu(x) - \langle\nabla\nu(x),z-x\rangleV(x,z):=ν(z)−ν(x)−⟨∇ν(x),z−x⟩ built from a 1-strongly-convex distance-generating function ν\nuν with respect to a general norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ (dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​): xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈Xγtgt(x)+V(xt,x)x_{t+1} := \arg\min_{x\in X}\gamma_t g_t(x) + V(x_t,x)xt+1​:=argminx∈X​γt​gt​(x)+V(xt​,x), where gtg_tgt​ is now a continuous linear functional (a subgradient in the dual space, since the norm need not come from an inner product). Choosing ν(x)=∥x∥22/2\nu(x)=\|x\|_2^2/2ν(x)=∥x∥22​/2 recovers V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22/2V(x,z) = \|z-x\|_2^2/2V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22​/2 and the plain subgradient update as a special case.

The accelerated gradient method additionally assumes fff has LLL-Lipschitz gradient (f(y)−f(x)−⟨f′(x),y−x⟩≤L2∥y−x∥2f(y)-f(x)-\langle f'(x),y-x\rangle \le \tfrac{L}{2}\|y-x\|^2f(y)−f(x)−⟨f′(x),y−x⟩≤2L​∥y−x∥2) and is μ\muμ-generalized-strongly-convex w.r.t. VVV (f(x)+⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+μV(x,y)≤f(y)f(x)+\langle f'(x),y-x\rangle+\mu V(x,y)\le f(y)f(x)+⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+μV(x,y)≤f(y) for μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0), and tracks three coupled sequences from (x0,xˉ0)∈X×X(x_0,\bar x_0)\in X\times X(x0​,xˉ0​)∈X×X:

x~t=(1−qt)xˉt−1+qtxt−1,xt=arg⁡min⁡x∈X{γt[⟨f′(x~t),x⟩+μV(x~t,x)]+V(xt−1,x)},xˉt=(1−αt)xˉt−1+αtxt.\tilde x_t = (1-q_t)\bar x_{t-1}+q_tx_{t-1},\quad x_t = \arg\min_{x\in X}\{\gamma_t[\langle f'(\tilde x_t),x\rangle+\mu V(\tilde x_t,x)]+V(x_{t-1},x)\},\quad \bar x_t = (1-\alpha_t)\bar x_{t-1}+\alpha_tx_t.x~t​=(1−qt​)xˉt−1​+qt​xt−1​,xt​=argx∈Xmin​{γt​[⟨f′(x~t​),x⟩+μV(x~t​,x)]+V(xt−1​,x)},xˉt​=(1−αt​)xˉt−1​+αt​xt​.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.6, closed-form rate

With qt=αt=2t+1q_t=\alpha_t=\tfrac{2}{t+1}qt​=αt​=t+12​, γt=t2L\gamma_t=\tfrac{t}{2L}γt​=2Lt​ and μ=0\mu=0μ=0:

f(xˉk)−f(x∗)≤4Lk(k+1)V(x0,x∗).f(\bar x_k) - f(x^*) \le \frac{4L}{k(k+1)}V(x_0,x^*).f(xˉk​)−f(x∗)≤k(k+1)4L​V(x0​,x∗).

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 3.1 / Theorem 3.1 (Euclidean case): the three-point inequality for the plain projected-subgradient step, and the resulting ∑tγt[f(xt)−f(x)]≤12(∥x−xs∥22+M2∑tγt2)\sum_t \gamma_t[f(x_t)-f(x)] \le \tfrac12(\|x-x_s\|_2^2 + M^2\sum_t\gamma_t^2)∑t​γt​[f(xt​)−f(x)]≤21​(∥x−xs​∥22​+M2∑t​γt2​) bound under MMM-Lipschitz fff.
  • Lemma 3.4 / Theorem 3.5 (general-norm mirror descent): the same two results with the squared Euclidean distance replaced by VVV and the Euclidean norm by a general dual pair ∥⋅∥,∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|,\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥,∥⋅∥∗​.
  • Proposition 3.1: the one-step accelerated-method recursion f(xˉt)−f(x)+αt(μ+1/γt)V(xt,x)≤(1−αt)[f(xˉt−1)−f(x)]+(αt/γt)V(xt−1,x)f(\bar x_t)-f(x)+\alpha_t(\mu+ 1/\gamma_t)V(x_t,x) \le (1-\alpha_t)[f(\bar x_{t-1})-f(x)]+(\alpha_t/\gamma_t)V(x_{t-1},x)f(xˉt​)−f(x)+αt​(μ+1/γt​)V(xt​,x)≤(1−αt​)[f(xˉt−1​)−f(x)]+(αt​/γt​)V(xt−1​,x).
  • Theorem 3.6, general form: Proposition 3.1's recursion telescoped across t=1,…,kt=1,\dots,kt=1,…,k (with μ=0\mu=0μ=0) into a single two-term bound relating step kkk to step 000.

Every constant here is exactly the book's; no milestone hides an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) behind an unspecified absolute constant.

Significance

The chain culminates in an explicit, non-asymptotic O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) certificate for accelerated gradient descent — the theoretically optimal rate for smooth convex minimization by a first-order method (matching the Nemirovski–Yudin lower bound, not re-derived here). Formalizing it forces every implicit convention in a standard optimization-course derivation to become explicit: which of the three sequences xt,x~t,xˉtx_t,\tilde x_t,\bar x_txt​,x~t​,xˉt​ a given quantity refers to, exactly which inequality (3.3.7)-(3.3.9) each specific stepsize schedule needs to satisfy, and the precise index range over which the chapter's own stated hypotheses actually get used in its own proof (see Difficulty below).

None of these six results (or their strongly-convex counterpart, Theorem 3.7, left for future work — see Formalization scope) has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me. The one theorem with the same name as this mission's subject, BanditAlgorithm.mirror_descent_regret_bound (Lattimore & Szepesvári, Theorem 28.4), is a different object: an online, adversarial regret bound against a changing sequence of loss vectors yty_tyt​, not an offline function-value gap for a single fixed fff; not reused. Likewise OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.online_gradient_descent_regret (Hazan) and OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics.constrained_gd_well_conditioned_convergence are, respectively, an online-regret bound and a plain-gradient-descent (non-accelerated) linear-rate result — checked and confirmed not reusable per the mission brief.

Difficulty

The three-point inequalities (Lemmas 3.1/3.4) are routine consequences of a strongly-convex minimizer's optimality condition. The real difficulty is bookkeeping across three coupled sequences in the accelerated method: a formalization using only xtx_txt​ and xˉt\bar x_txˉt​ (dropping x~t\tilde x_tx~t​, the point at which the gradient is actually evaluated) is not Lan's algorithm and proves either a false or a different bound — x~t\tilde x_tx~t​ is what lets the method use a gradient computed at a point between xt−1x_{t-1}xt−1​ and xˉt−1\bar x_{t-1}xˉt−1​, which is exactly the extrapolation step that makes acceleration work.

A second, subtler difficulty is that Theorem 3.6's own stated hypothesis — "(3.3.15) for any t=1,…,kt=1,\dots,kt=1,…,k" — is not quite what its proof uses. Telescoping Proposition 3.1's per-step bound via (3.3.15) requires the previous step's constants γt−1,αt−1\gamma_{t-1},\alpha_{t-1}γt−1​,αt−1​; at t=1t=1t=1 these would be γ0,α0\gamma_0,\alpha_0γ0​,α0​, values the recursion (3.3.4)-(3.3.6) never defines (it only ever uses qt,γt,αtq_t,\gamma_t,\alpha_tqt​,γt​,αt​ for t≥1t\ge1t≥1). The book's own proof, read closely, invokes (3.3.15) only for t=2,…,kt=2,\dots,kt=2,…,k, with t=1t=1t=1 handled directly by Proposition 3.1's conclusion connecting xˉ1,x1\bar x_1,x_1xˉ1​,x1​ to the given base data xˉ0,x0\bar x_0,x_0xˉ0​,x0​. Formalizing the literal hypothesis range would either be unstatable (no γ0,α0\gamma_0,\alpha_0γ0​,α0​ exist) or vacuous (adding unused ghost parameters); this mission states the range the proof actually needs.

Formalization scope

Chapter 3's own §3.1/§3.2 split (Euclidean vs. general norm) is preserved rather than collapsed: subgradient_iterate_three_point/subgradient_descent_bound are stated over a real inner product space with the vector subgradient g(xt)∈Eg(x_t)\in Eg(xt​)∈E and the Euclidean norm, exactly matching §3.1; mirror_iterate_three_point/mirror_descent_bound and the two accelerated-method milestones are stated over a general real normed space [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E], with subgradients as continuous linear functionals E →L[ℝ] ℝ (whose Mathlib operator norm is already the dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​, needing no separate definition) and the Bregman divergence V:E→E→RV : E \to E \to \mathbb{R}V:E→E→R left as a free two-point function — but, following a 2026-09-19 revision, no longer a totally free function. V is now required to satisfy the two facts (3.2.2)/(3.2.3)/(3.2.6) actually establish and every downstream proof (Lemma 3.4, Theorem 3.5, Proposition 3.1, Theorem 3.6) uses: nonnegativity (V(x,z)≥0V(x,z)\ge 0V(x,z)≥0 for x,z∈Xx,z\in Xx,z∈X) and the three-point/cosine identity V(x,z)=V(x,y)+⟨∇V(x,⋅)(y),z−y⟩+V(y,z)V(x,z) = V(x,y) + \langle\nabla V(x,\cdot)(y), z-y\rangle + V(y,z)V(x,z)=V(x,y)+⟨∇V(x,⋅)(y),z−y⟩+V(y,z), the latter made explicit via an added parameter dV : E → E → (E →L[ℝ] ℝ) read as "the gradient of V(x,⋅)V(x,\cdot)V(x,⋅) at yyy." Without these two hypotheses the five items that use an abstract V (mirror_iterate_three_point, mirror_descent_bound, accelerated_one_step_recursion, accelerated_gradient_recursion_bound, accelerated_gradient_rate) are false as stated — a constant V satisfies the bare pointwise-minimality hypotheses while violating the conclusion, as two worked counterexamples confirmed. This mission does not derive V/dV from an explicit distance-generating function ν\nuν (the heavier, fully book-literal route (3.2.1)-(3.2.2) would); it takes the two facts the proofs actually consume as hypotheses directly, which is lighter and sufficient. Satisfiability is witnessed by the Euclidean case already in §3.1: ν(x)=∥x∥2/2\nu(x)=\|x\|^2/2ν(x)=∥x∥2/2, V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22/2V(x,z)=\|z-x\|_2^2/2V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22​/2, dV x y=⟨y−x,⋅⟩dV\,x\,y = \langle y-x,\cdot\rangledVxy=⟨y−x,⋅⟩, exactly how subgradient_iterate_three_point/subgradient_descent_bound already handle the Euclidean special case. A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: specializing VVV to the Euclidean squared distance in mirror_iterate_three_point/mirror_descent_bound would make those two milestones restatements of the §3.1 Euclidean results rather than genuine generalizations, exactly the pitfall the chapter brief flags.

Every argmin-defined iterate (xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ in each of the three update rules) is represented by its defining pointwise-minimality property rather than by an IsMinOn/argmin term, so no existence or uniqueness lemma for the underlying minimization problem is needed anywhere in this mission — matching how the book's own proofs use these updates (via their first-order optimality condition, never via an explicit formula for the minimizer).

Left out of scope, for time: Theorem 3.7 (the strongly-convex, μ>0\mu>0μ>0 linear-rate companion to Theorem 3.6, sharing Proposition 3.1 as its own base lemma) and Corollary 3.5 (the composite-objective extension f=f^+Ff=\hat f+Ff=f^​+F). Both are natural continuations reusing this mission's accelerated_one_step_recursion; a later mission or an amendment to this one could add them as additional milestones/goals without touching what is here.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • Y. Nesterov, "A method for solving the convex programming problem with convergence rate O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2)," Doklady AN SSSR, 269, 1983, pp. 543–547.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization, Springer, 2004.
  • A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization, Wiley, 1983 (source of the mirror-descent method and the O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) lower bound for smooth convex optimization).
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Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: naimengye

Stochastic Networks III: Loss Networks and the Erlang Fixed PointTextbook

Motivation

Erlang's formula, the subject of mission I of this series, sizes a single telephone link. Real networks are not single links: a call occupies a circuit on every link of its route simultaneously, and it is lost unless every one of those links has a free circuit. That is the loss network, the model of Chapter 3 of Frank Kelly and Elena Yudovina's Stochastic Networks (Cambridge University Press, 2014), and it describes not only circuit-switched telephony but any system in which a request must acquire several resources at once or be refused: wavelength assignment in optical networks, radio channel allocation under interference constraints, slot booking, and admission control generally. The term used in those application areas is circuit-switched: before a request is accepted it is checked that enough resource is available for each stage of it.

The exact equilibrium distribution of a loss network is known and has product form. It is also useless for computation — its normalizing constant is a sum over the feasible states, and for a general resource matrix computing it is NP-hard. What practitioners use instead is the Erlang fixed point: pretend the links block independently, so that the traffic offered to link jjj is the traffic on the routes through it thinned by the blocking probability of every other link on each route, and then apply Erlang's formula link by link. The result is a system of coupled copies of Erlang's formula. The chapter's aim, in its own words, is to give insight into why that approximation works as well as it does; the first step is to show that it is well posed at all.

Setting

The links are J={1,…,J}\mathcal{J} = \{1,\dots,J\}J={1,…,J}, link jjj carrying CjC_jCj​ circuits. A route rrr belongs to a set R\mathcal{R}R of RRR routes, and the link-route incidence matrix AAA records how much of each link a route needs: a call on route rrr requires AjrA_{jr}Ajr​ circuits from link jjj and is lost if any link has fewer than AjrA_{jr}Ajr​ free. (The classical case is AAA a 000–111 matrix and Ajr=1A_{jr}=1Ajr​=1 exactly when j∈rj\in rj∈r; from section 3.3 the book allows any non-negative integers.)

Calls requesting route rrr arrive as a Poisson process of rate νr\nu_rνr​, independently across routes, and hold their circuits for an exponentially distributed time of unit mean. Writing nrn_rnr​ for the number of calls in progress on route rrr, the process n=(nr)n=(n_r)n=(nr​) is Markov on

S(C)={n∈Z+R:An≤C},S(C)=\{n\in\mathbb{Z}_+^{R} : An\le C\},S(C)={n∈Z+R​:An≤C},

and is called a loss network with fixed routing.

Write E(ν,C)E(\nu,C)E(ν,C) for Erlang's formula, E(ν,C)=νC/C!∑j=0Cνj/j!E(\nu,C)=\dfrac{\nu^{C}/C!}{\sum_{j=0}^{C}\nu^{j}/j!}E(ν,C)=∑j=0C​νj/j!νC/C!​, published in mission I of this series. The Erlang fixed point equations are

Ej  =  E ⁣((1−Ej)−1∑rAjr νr∏i(1−Ei)Air,  Cj),j=1,…,J.(3.7)E_j \;=\; E\!\left((1-E_j)^{-1}\sum_r A_{jr}\,\nu_r\prod_i (1-E_i)^{A_{ir}},\; C_j\right), \qquad j=1,\dots,J. \tag{3.7}Ej​=E((1−Ej​)−1r∑​Ajr​νr​i∏​(1−Ei​)Air​,Cj​),j=1,…,J.(3.7)

The factor (1−Ej)−1(1-E_j)^{-1}(1−Ej​)−1 removes link jjj's own thinning from the product, so in the 000–111 case the argument is ∑r∋jνr∏i∈r∖{j}(1−Ei)\sum_{r\ni j}\nu_r\prod_{i\in r\setminus\{j\}}(1-E_i)∑r∋j​νr​∏i∈r∖{j}​(1−Ei​), the reduced load offered to link jjj.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.20, existence and uniqueness of the Erlang fixed point

∃! (E1,…,EJ)∈[0,1]J satisfying (3.7).\exists!\,(E_1,\dots,E_J)\in[0,1]^J \text{ satisfying } (3.7).∃!(E1​,…,EJ​)∈[0,1]J satisfying (3.7).

The goal fixes no formula for EEE and no rate of convergence: it asserts only that the approximation the field has used since the 1960s names a single, well-defined object. Existence alone is a short argument from Brouwer's theorem, since (3.7) defines a continuous self-map of the compact convex cube [0,1]J[0,1]^J[0,1]J; uniqueness is the substance.

Supporting levels

The exact theory that the fixed point approximates: Lemma 3.4 on truncating a reversible process; the uncapacitated network as an instance of the open migration product form of mission II; equation (3.3), the exact equilibrium distribution π(n)=G(C)∏rνrnr/nr!\pi(n)=G(C)\prod_r \nu_r^{n_r}/n_r!π(n)=G(C)∏r​νrnr​​/nr​! on S(C)S(C)S(C); and the acceptance probability 1−Lr=G(C)/G(C−Aer)1-L_r=G(C)/G(C-Ae_r)1−Lr​=G(C)/G(C−Aer​). Then the optimization side: that E(ν,C)E(\nu,C)E(ν,C) and the utilization ν(1−E(ν,C))\nu(1-E(\nu,C))ν(1−E(ν,C)) are strictly increasing in ν\nuν, which is what makes the revised dual objective strictly convex; and Theorem 3.10, that a minimizer of the Dual problem (3.5) over the positive orthant satisfies the conditions on BBB, equation (3.6).

Significance

The result itself. Without Theorem 3.20 the phrase "the Erlang fixed point" is not well formed, and neither is any engineering procedure that computes one — repeated substitution converges to a solution, and damped iteration is guaranteed to converge to one, but "the blocking probabilities predicted by the reduced-load approximation" names a unique vector only because of this theorem. The proof is also the interesting part: the fixed point equations are re-read as the stationary conditions of a strictly convex minimization, the revised dual (3.8), which is the Dual problem (3.5) of the maximum-probability analysis with its linear term replaced by ∫0yjU(z,Cj) dz\int_0^{y_j}U(z,C_j)\,dz∫0yj​​U(z,Cj​)dz. That connection is what later lets the book prove the approximation asymptotically exact in a limiting regime: Corollary 3.22 says the Erlang fixed point converges to the vector BBB coming from the maximum-probability problem.

Formalizing it. Nothing here is open. What the mission produces is the loss network model in Lean — state space, truncated rates, normalizing constant, incidence matrix — and a machine-checked statement of the object the reduced-load approximation computes. It is also where this series' earlier missions pay off: the uncapacitated network is literally the open migration process of mission II with λ≡0\lambda\equiv 0λ≡0, μ≡1\mu\equiv 1μ≡1, φj(n)=n\varphi_j(n)=nφj​(n)=n, and the exact distribution (3.3) is its truncation by Lemma 3.4 to the feasible set, using the DetailedBalance layer of mission I. Mathlib has no loss network theory and no Erlang formula beyond what mission I published.

Difficulty

Existence of a fixed point is easy and is not where the difficulty lies. Uniqueness resists every direct attack: the map defined by (3.7) is not a contraction in any obvious metric, its monotonicity structure is not the kind that forces a unique fixed point, and iterating it undamped can cycle. The book's route is indirect — exhibit a strictly convex function whose stationary conditions are exactly (3.7) — and finding that function is the whole content. Its strict convexity comes from a monotonicity fact about Erlang's formula, that the utilization ν(1−E(ν,C))\nu\bigl(1-E(\nu,C)\bigr)ν(1−E(ν,C)) is strictly increasing in ν\nuν, which is itself a milestone here.

A second, formal difficulty: the equations involve (1−Ej)−1(1-E_j)^{-1}(1−Ej​)−1, so a solution with Ej=1E_j=1Ej​=1 would be meaningless. It is worth checking before starting that no such solution exists for Cj≥1C_j\ge 1Cj​≥1, rather than assuming it.

Formalization scope

Routes and links are indexed by finite types, the incidence matrix has natural-number entries (the general case of section 3.3, not only 000–111), capacities are natural numbers, and arrival rates are positive reals. The feasible set S(C)S(C)S(C) is a subset of the state space, and a truncated process is the rate matrix restricted to that subset — which is exactly the book's truncation, since a transition leaving the set simply has no target.

Conventions: holding times have unit mean throughout, matching the book, so the departure rate from route rrr is nrn_rnr​ and no separate service-rate parameter appears. Normalizing constants are introduced through summability hypotheses that assert convergence and the value together, rather than as possibly-infinite quantities; G(C)G(C)G(C) is the reciprocal of the sum in the book's notation. Capacities are assumed at least 111 in the goal: a link with no circuits blocks everything, E(ν,0)=1E(\nu,0)=1E(ν,0)=1 identically, and the factor (1−Ej)−1(1-E_j)^{-1}(1−Ej​)−1 would then be undefined rather than merely large.

The goal cannot be satisfied trivially: it is a uniqueness statement, so a vacuous or degenerate reading would have to produce no solution, and existence is half of what is asserted.

Contributions welcome beyond the listed items: the Brouwer argument for existence of a solution to the 000–111 equations (3.1) of section 3.2; the utilization function U(y,C)U(y,C)U(y,C) and the revised dual (3.8); the central limit theorem 3.14 and Corollary 3.17; Lemma 3.21 and Corollary 3.22 on the limiting regime; and the diverse-routing models of section 3.7.

Selected references

  • Frank Kelly and Elena Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 3 (pp. 49–82); Lemma 3.4, equation (3.3), Theorems 3.10 and 3.20, equations (3.1), (3.5)–(3.9). DOI 10.1017/cbo9781139565363
  • F. P. Kelly, Loss networks, Annals of Applied Probability 1 (1991), 319–378. DOI 10.1214/aoap/1177005872
  • F. P. Kelly, Blocking probabilities in large circuit-switched networks, Advances in Applied Probability 18 (1986), 473–505. DOI 10.2307/1427303
  • R. B. Cooper and S. Katz, Analysis of alternate routing networks with account taken of the nonrandomness of overflow traffic, Bell Telephone Laboratories memorandum, 1964.
  • Frank Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2011 (reissue of the 1979 edition), Chapter 1 on truncation.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supermodularity and Complementarity V: Existence of Equilibrium in Supermodular GamesTextbook

Motivation

Existence of equilibrium is the first question any model of strategic interaction must answer, and the classical answer — Nash's theorem via Kakutani's fixed point theorem — asks for a convex, compact strategy space and continuous payoffs. Many of the models economists actually use do not have that: a firm's technology set can be discrete or irregular, and a payoff need only be upper semicontinuous, not continuous. Topkis [1979] showed that when a game's structure is instead order-theoretic — each player's strategies form a lattice, and the players' incentives reinforce each other in a precise sense — an equilibrium exists without any convexity or continuity assumption at all, and the proof method delivers something Kakutani's theorem cannot: a greatest and a least equilibrium point, with the whole equilibrium set forming a complete lattice. Zhou [1994] later showed the completeness of the equilibrium lattice in full generality; this mission formalizes the resulting theorem (Topkis's Theorem 4.2.1) together with its parametric extension (Theorem 4.2.2, established independently by Milgrom and Roberts [1990a] and Sobel [1988]), which shows how the greatest and least equilibria move as a parameter of the game — its technology, its cost structure — changes. This machinery underlies monotone comparative statics for games throughout economics: oligopoly models with strategic complements, coordination games, and search and matching models with increasing returns.

Setting

A noncooperative game (N,S,{fi:i∈N})(N, S, \{f_i : i \in N\})(N,S,{fi​:i∈N}) consists of a finite player set NNN, a set S⊆RmS \subseteq \mathbb{R}^mS⊆Rm of feasible joint strategies x=(xi)i∈Nx = (x_i)_{i \in N}x=(xi​)i∈N​ (allowing the set of strategies feasible for one player to depend on the others' choices, so SSS need not be a product set), and a payoff function fif_ifi​ for each player iii. Write x−ix_{-i}x−i​ for the strategies of every player but iii, Si(x−i)S_i(x_{-i})Si​(x−i​) for the section of SSS at x−ix_{-i}x−i​ — player iii's feasible strategies given the others' choice — and Yi(x−i)=argmax⁡yi∈Si(x−i)fi(yi,x−i)Y_i(x_{-i}) = \operatorname{argmax}_{y_i \in S_i(x_{-i})} f_i(y_i, x_{-i})Yi​(x−i​)=argmaxyi​∈Si​(x−i​)​fi​(yi​,x−i​) for player iii's best-response set. The best joint response correspondence is Y(x)=∏i∈NYi(x−i)Y(x) = \prod_{i \in N} Y_i(x_{-i})Y(x)=∏i∈N​Yi​(x−i​). A feasible x′x'x′ is an equilibrium point if fi(yi,x−i′)≤fi(x′)f_i(y_i, x'_{-i}) \le f_i(x')fi​(yi​,x−i′​)≤fi​(x′) for every player iii and every feasible deviation yi∈Si(x−i′)y_i \in S_i(x'_{-i})yi​∈Si​(x−i′​) — no player can unilaterally improve.

A lattice is a partially ordered set in which every pair of elements has a join ∨\vee∨ and a meet ∧\wedge∧. A function ggg is supermodular on a subset if g(x)+g(y)≤g(x∨y)+g(x∧y)g(x) + g(y) \le g(x \vee y) + g(x \wedge y)g(x)+g(y)≤g(x∨y)+g(x∧y) for all x,yx, yx,y in it, and has increasing differences in two of its arguments (y,t)(y,t)(y,t) if y↦g(y,t′′)−g(y,t′)y \mapsto g(y, t'') - g(y, t')y↦g(y,t′′)−g(y,t′) is monotone whenever t′≺t′′t' \prec t''t′≺t′′. A game (N,S,{fi})(N, S, \{f_i\})(N,S,{fi​}) is a supermodular game if SSS is a sublattice, fi(yi,x−i)f_i(y_i, x_{-i})fi​(yi​,x−i​) is supermodular in yiy_iyi​ for every fixed x−ix_{-i}x−i​ and every iii, and fi(yi,x−i)f_i(y_i, x_{-i})fi​(yi​,x−i​) has increasing differences in (yi,x−i)(y_i, x_{-i})(yi​,x−i​) for every iii — jointly, the conditions under which each player's own strategy components are complements and complementary to the other players' strategies (Theorem 2.6.1 of chunk 01-lattices/02-monotonicity's book).

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 4.2.1

If (N,S,{fi})(N, S, \{f_i\})(N,S,{fi​}) is a supermodular game, SSS is nonempty and compact, and each fi(yi,x−i)f_i(y_i, x_{-i})fi​(yi​,x−i​) is upper semicontinuous in yiy_iyi​ on Si(x−i)S_i(x_{-i})Si​(x−i​) for every x−ix_{-i}x−i​ and every iii, then

{equilibrium points of (N,S,{fi})}\{\text{equilibrium points of } (N, S, \{f_i\})\}{equilibrium points of (N,S,{fi​})}

is nonempty, has a greatest and a least element, and, under the order it inherits from Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm, is itself a nonempty complete lattice.

Theorem 4.2.2 (the parametric extension)

Let TTT be a partially ordered set and, for each t∈Tt \in Tt∈T, (N,St,{fit})(N, S^t, \{f_i^t\})(N,St,{fit​}) a supermodular game with StS^tSt nonempty, compact, and increasing in ttt; suppose each fit(yi,x−i)f_i^t(y_i, x_{-i})fit​(yi​,x−i​) is upper semicontinuous in yiy_iyi​ and has increasing differences in (yi,t)(y_i, t)(yi​,t). Then for every ttt there exist a greatest and a least equilibrium point of game ttt, and both are increasing functions of ttt on TTT — the equilibrium set moves monotonically as the parameter increases.

Two supporting results are formalized as milestones because Theorem 4.2.1's own proof uses them directly: Lemma 4.2.1 (equilibrium points are exactly the fixed points of the best joint response correspondence) and Lemma 4.2.2, parts (b) and (f) (the best joint response set is a nonempty compact sublattice for every feasible xxx, and the correspondence is increasing in xxx).

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 4.2.1 is the lattice-theoretic alternative to Nash/Kakutani existence: it needs no convexity of SSS and no continuity of fif_ifi​ (upper semicontinuity suffices), and in exchange it delivers a greatest and a least equilibrium — with an explicit order-theoretic characterization via Theorem 2.5.1 of chunk 01-lattices — and the guarantee that the entire equilibrium set is a complete lattice, not merely nonempty. Theorem 4.2.2 gives this existence result teeth for applied comparative statics: it says that if a firm's cost structure, a market's demand parameter, or any other feature of the game increases (in the sense of the induced set order on StS^tSt and increasing differences in the payoffs), the extremal equilibria increase too — the qualitative content behind results such as "more competition leads to lower prices" in supermodular oligopoly models.

Formalizing it. The platform's existing Nash-equilibrium theorem (AGT.nash_existence, Theorem 1.8 of Algorithmic Game Theory) is a Brouwer/Kakutani argument for finite games with mixed strategies: it needs finiteness of every player's strategy set (so that mixed strategies form a compact convex simplex) and gives no lattice structure on the equilibrium set at all. Theorem 4.2.1 is a different technique entirely — it needs no finiteness, no mixing, and no convexity, and its conclusion (a complete lattice of equilibria) is exactly the content Brouwer/Kakutani cannot give. This mission is therefore not a restatement of Nash's theorem in different notation, but a second, independent existence technique with a strictly different structural payoff, formalized here for the first time on the platform. It builds directly on chunk 01-lattices's Theorem 2.5.1 (Zhou's fixed point theorem for increasing correspondences) and chunk 02-monotonicity's supermodularity/increasing differences definitions, both formalized earlier in this series.

Difficulty

The natural first idea for existence — "the best joint response correspondence has a fixed point by some general fixed-point theorem for correspondences" — needs the correspondence to be convex-valued and upper hemicontinuous for a Kakutani argument, neither of which supermodularity or upper semicontinuity alone supply: a best-response set under only upper semicontinuity can be a disconnected, non-convex set (e.g. the maximizers of a supermodular but non-quasiconcave function). The actual route goes through order instead of topology: Lemma 4.2.2 shows the best joint response set is a compact sublattice (hence subcomplete, by Theorem 2.3.1) and that the correspondence is increasing under the induced set order, which is exactly the hypothesis Theorem 2.5.1's non-constructive supremum/infimum construction needs — no convexity anywhere. A second subtlety, which the mission is careful not to elide: the equilibrium set of a supermodular game need be neither compact nor a sublattice of Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm when there are more than one player (Topkis's Examples 4.2.1 and 4.2.2 exhibit both failures); only the weaker claim — a complete lattice under the inherited order — is true in general, and that is what Theorem 2.5.1(b) supplies.

Formalization scope

A joint strategy is represented as a dependent function ∀ i, Fin (m i) → ℝ over a finite player type ι, with a player's own strategy accessed and overwritten via Function.update, so that x−ix_{-i}x−i​ is never reified as a separate object — every statement about fi(yi,x−i)f_i(y_i, x_{-i})fi​(yi​,x−i​) or membership in Si(x−i)S_i(x_{-i})Si​(x−i​) substitutes y for x's own i-th coordinate directly. IsSupermodularGame reuses chunk 02-monotonicity's SupermodularOn and IncreasingDifferencesOn verbatim, applied to each player's own payoff, rather than restating the supermodularity/increasing- differences conditions from scratch — a formalization that inlined a weaker, ad hoc notion here (e.g. supermodularity of the joint payoff vector rather than each player's own payoff in their own strategy) would trivialize the connection to chunk 02-monotonicity's theorems that the book's own proof relies on. Theorem 4.2.1's "nonempty complete lattice" conclusion is formalized, as in chunk 01-lattices, via IsLUB/IsGLB on the subtype of equilibrium points — never as membership of the ambient Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm supremum/infimum in the equilibrium set, which the book's own Examples 4.2.1–4.2.2 refute; a solution that instead proved the equilibrium set compact or a sublattice of Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm would be proving a strictly stronger and false claim. Only parts (b) and (f) of Lemma 4.2.2 are formalized, since those are the only two of its eight parts the proof of Theorem 4.2.1 uses; a complete development still needs chunk 01-lattices's Theorem 2.3.1 (subcomplete iff compact) and Theorem 2.5.1/2.5.2, and chunk 02-monotonicity's Theorem 2.8.1 and Corollary 2.7.1, none of which are restated here.

Selected references

  • Topkis, D. M., Equilibrium points in nonzero-sum n-person submodular games, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 17(6), 1979, pp. 773–787. https://doi.org/10.1137/0317054
  • Zhou, L., The set of Nash equilibria of a supermodular game is a complete lattice, Games and Economic Behavior 7(2), 1994, pp. 295–300. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1994.1051
  • Milgrom, P. and Roberts, J., Rationalizability, learning, and equilibrium in games with strategic complementarities, Econometrica 58(6), 1990, pp. 1255–1277. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938316
  • Sobel, M. J., Isotone comparative statics for supermodular games, unpublished manuscript, 1988 (cited by Topkis [2011], Theorem 4.2.2).
  • Topkis, D. M., Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 2011 (DOI 10.1515/9781400822539), Chapter 4, §4.1–4.2.
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: Shuze Chen

Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control V: LQG and Certainty EquivalenceTextbook

Motivation

The separation theorem — certainty equivalence for linear-quadratic control with imperfect state information — is one of the celebrated structural results of stochastic control: the optimal controller splits into a least-squares estimator and the deterministic LQR actuator, designed independently. It underlies every LQG autopilot and Kalman-filter-based regulator. Section 5.2 of Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I (3rd ed., 2005) proves it from the DP algorithm over information vectors, with Lemma 5.2.1 supplying the key fact that the estimation error is beyond the controller's influence. No formal analogue exists in Mathlib.

Setting

Linear dynamics and measurements

xk+1=Akxk+Bkuk+wk,zk=Ckxk+vk,x_{k+1} = A_k x_k + B_k u_k + w_k, \qquad z_k = C_k x_k + v_k,xk+1​=Ak​xk​+Bk​uk​+wk​,zk​=Ck​xk​+vk​,

with quadratic cost E[xN⊤QNxN+∑k<N(xk⊤Qkxk+uk⊤Rkuk)]\mathbb{E}\big[x_N^\top Q_N x_N + \sum_{k<N}(x_k^\top Q_k x_k + u_k^\top R_k u_k)\big]E[xN⊤​QN​xN​+∑k<N​(xk⊤​Qk​xk​+uk⊤​Rk​uk​)], Qk⪰0Q_k \succeq 0Qk​⪰0, Rk≻0R_k \succ 0Rk​≻0. The initial state and the zero-mean disturbances/noises are independent with finite ranges; independence is structural — the sample space is the product of an initial-state coordinate and per-stage noise coordinates (BertsekasLQGModel, BertsekasLQGSample, BertsekasLQGProb). A policy maps the realized measurement history (z0,…,zk)(z_0,\dots,z_k)(z0​,…,zk​) to uku_kuk​; the closed-loop process is BertsekasLQGTraj, the expected cost BertsekasLQGCost. The estimator E[xk∣Ik]\mathbb{E}[x_k \mid I_k]E[xk​∣Ik​] is an explicit conditional average (BertsekasCondExpVec, BertsekasLQGEstimate); the gains LkL_kLk​ come from the time-varying Riccati recursion (BertsekasLQGRiccati, BertsekasLQGGain).

Target

π∗(Ik)=Lk E[xk∣Ik]  along its own trajectories⟹J(π∗)≤J(π)  ∀π,\pi^*(I_k) = L_k\, \mathbb{E}[x_k \mid I_k] \ \text{ along its own trajectories} \quad\Longrightarrow\quad J(\pi^*) \le J(\pi)\ \ \forall \pi,π∗(Ik​)=Lk​E[xk​∣Ik​]  along its own trajectories⟹J(π∗)≤J(π)  ∀π,

— BertsekasDP.lqg_certainty_equivalence (goal). Milestone: Lemma 5.2.1 in pointwise form — the error xk−E[xk∣Ik]x_k - \mathbb{E}[x_k \mid I_k]xk​−E[xk​∣Ik​] is the same under any two policies, outcome by outcome (lqg_estimation_error_policy_independent).

Significance

This is the theorem that justifies designing estimator and controller separately — remove it and the entire LQG methodology loses its warrant. The formalization also yields the first machine-checked instance of the informational decomposition (control-dependent part + policy-independent error) that recurs throughout imperfect-information control. Notably the result needs no Gaussian assumption — only zero mean and independence — and the finite-support model makes that generality exact. The result is classical (Joseph–Tou 1961, Gunckel–Franklin 1963; the book's §5.2); the formal proof is new.

Difficulty

The heart is Lemma 5.2.1: showing the estimation error coincides, sample by sample, with the error of the control-free system — which requires proving that the observation-history σ-events under any policy coincide with those of the control-free system (controls are determined by the history, so they shift observations by a known amount). Then the DP argument over information histories must carry the quadratic decomposition through the backward recursion. Bookkeeping over histories-as-lists is the main formal burden; probability theory stays finite.

Formalization scope

Finite-support randomness (all expectations are finite sums); conditional expectation with the explicit junk value 0 on zero-probability events — the goal's hypothesis is accordingly restricted to outcomes of positive probability. Policies are functions of the measurement list only (equivalent to the book's information vector for deterministic policies, since past controls are recoverable from past measurements). Matrices are time-varying; positive definiteness of RkR_kRk​ makes every matrix inverse in the gains genuine. Measurement noise covariance is not assumed positive definite — the estimator is the abstract conditional expectation, not the Kalman filter (whose recursive form, §5.2.1, would be a natural follow-up mission).

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I, 3rd ed., Athena Scientific, 2005. (§5.2, Lemma 5.2.1.) http://www.athenasc.com/dpbook.html
  • P. D. Joseph, J. T. Tou, On linear control theory, Trans. AIEE 80 (1961), 193–196. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAI.1961.6371743
  • T. L. Gunckel, G. F. Franklin, A general solution for linear sampled-data control, J. Basic Eng. 85 (1963), 197–201. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3656559
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Graph Theory·Captain: Shuze Chen

Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control II: Label Correcting MethodsTextbook

Motivation

Label correcting methods are the workhorse family of shortest-path algorithms — Dijkstra's method, Bellman–Ford, SLF/LLL variants and A* all fit the template analyzed in §2.3.1 of Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I (3rd ed., 2005), where shortest paths appear as the purely deterministic face of dynamic programming. The correctness proof (Prop. 2.3.1) is short on paper but genuinely nondeterministic — any node may be removed from the candidate list, children processed in any order — so a formal proof certifies a whole family of concrete algorithms at once.

Setting

A finite directed graph with arc set A\mathcal{A}A, real arc lengths aija_{ij}aij​, origin sss and destination t≠st \ne st=s (BertsekasSPGraph). Walks are nonempty node lists whose consecutive pairs are arcs (BertsekasIsWalkFrom), with length the sum of arc lengths (BertsekasWalkLength); the shortest distance is the infimum of walk lengths in the extended reals, +∞+\infty+∞ if no walk exists (BertsekasShortestDistance). The standing assumption of §2.3: every cycle has nonnegative length (negative arcs allowed).

The algorithm state (BertsekasLCState) carries labels dj∈R‾d_j \in \overline{\mathbb{R}}dj​∈R, the scalar UPPER, and the candidate list OPEN. Initially ds=0d_s = 0ds​=0, all other labels ∞\infty∞, UPPER =∞= \infty=∞, OPEN ={s}= \{s\}={s}. One iteration (BertsekasLCStep, nondeterministic): remove any iii from OPEN; for each child jjj of iii in any order, if di+aij<min⁡{dj,UPPER}d_i + a_{ij} < \min\{d_j, \text{UPPER}\}di​+aij​<min{dj​,UPPER} set dj:=di+aijd_j := d_i + a_{ij}dj​:=di​+aij​, and put jjj in OPEN if j≠tj \ne tj=t, or update UPPER if j=tj = tj=t. The algorithm terminates when OPEN is empty.

Target

OPEN=∅  ⟹  UPPER=dist⁡(s,t)∈R‾,\text{OPEN} = \varnothing \implies \text{UPPER} = \operatorname{dist}(s, t) \in \overline{\mathbb{R}},OPEN=∅⟹UPPER=dist(s,t)∈R,

for every execution, under the nonnegative arc length assumption of §2.3 (aij≥0a_{ij} \ge 0aij​≥0 for every arc) — BertsekasDP.label_correcting_correctness_of_nonneg_arcs (goal). Milestones: termination — no infinite execution exists, which needs only the weaker nonnegative-cycle assumption (label_correcting_terminates) — and the workhorse invariant that every finite label is the length of an actual walk from sss, which needs neither (label_correcting_invariant).

The nonnegative-arc hypothesis is essential and not a formalization artifact: the algorithm prunes with the test di+aij<min⁡{dj,UPPER}d_i + a_{ij} < \min\{d_j, \mathrm{UPPER}\}di​+aij​<min{dj​,UPPER}, and with a negative arc a longer prefix can still reach ttt more cheaply, so the pruned node is never entered into OPEN. An earlier version of this mission's goal carried only the nonnegative-cycle assumption of §2.1 and was disproved by the counterexample s=0s=0s=0, t=2t=2t=2, a02=1a_{02}=1a02​=1, a01=2a_{01}=2a01​=2, a12=−2a_{12}=-2a12​=−2 (a graph with no cycles at all), where the algorithm terminates with UPPER=1\mathrm{UPPER}=1UPPER=1 while the shortest distance is 000. Exercise 2.7 of the source treats the nonnegative-cycle case, which requires a modified algorithm.

Significance

Prop. 2.3.1 certifies simultaneously breadth-first search, Dijkstra (best-first), depth-first and small-label-first variants — every removal discipline is one refinement of the nondeterministic relation. Formally, the development contributes a reusable small-step framework for label-setting/correcting algorithms on which sharper results (Dijkstra's single-pass property, A* admissibility, §2.3.3) can later be built. The result is classical; the formal content is the induction along the nondeterministic step relation.

Difficulty

Termination is the subtle half: labels do not decrease monotonically along the run in an obvious well-founded way; the book's argument counts the finitely many distinct walk lengths below a bound — this needs the nonnegative-cycle assumption and a careful bound relating labels to simple-path lengths. The invariant proof must thread through the fold over children within a single step.

Formalization scope

Finite node type with decidable equality; arcs as a Finset of ordered pairs; lengths total on V×VV \times VV×V (only arc values matter). The step relation is fully nondeterministic in pivot choice and child order (a permutation quantifier); correctness quantifies over all reachable terminal states — there is no fixed schedule to exploit. Distances live in EReal, so the no-path case is the honest empty infimum, not a sentinel. The trivializing risk of restricting to nonnegative arcs is avoided: only cycles are constrained.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I, 3rd ed., Athena Scientific, 2005. (Prop. 2.3.1, §2.3.) http://www.athenasc.com/dpbook.html
  • E. W. Dijkstra, A note on two problems in connexion with graphs, Numer. Math. 1 (1959), 269–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01386390
  • R. Bellman, On a routing problem, Quart. Appl. Math. 16 (1958), 87–90. https://doi.org/10.1090/qam/102435
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Experimental DesignProbabilityReinforcement Learning+1·Captain: Shuze Chen

Treatment Locality in A/B TestingResearch Paper

Modern A/B tests must infer lifetime treatment effects — e.g. customer lifetime value under a new feature — from short-horizon experiment data. Chen, Simchi-Levi and Wang (arXiv:2407.19618) model the experiment as a Markov decision process and exploit a structural fact of many practical interventions: the treatment is local, modifying the system at a single crucial state only. This mission formalizes the core asymptotic theory of the paper: for any differentiable estimator built from the experiment's transition and reward statistics, information sharing — pooling across test arms the samples collected away from the treated state — keeps the estimator asymptotically normal with the same asymptotic bias and never increases its asymptotic variance (Theorem 9), and is asymptotically efficient among unbiased estimators (Theorem 5). The route runs through a Markov chain central limit theorem with the asymptotic variance identified as the autocovariance series, and the linearization/delta method for functionals of chain statistics.

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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Convex Optimization V: Newton's MethodTextbook

The classical convergence theory of smooth convex minimization. For a function that is mmm-strongly convex and MMM-smooth (mI⪯∇2f(x)⪯MImI \preceq \nabla^2 f(x) \preceq MImI⪯∇2f(x)⪯MI), gradient descent converges linearly, while Newton's method exhibits its famous two phases: a damped phase in which every backtracking step decreases the objective by a fixed amount γ\gammaγ, and a quadratically convergent phase in which the scaled gradient norm squares at each step, L2m2∥∇f(x+)∥2≤(L2m2∥∇f(x)∥2)2\tfrac{L}{2m^2}\lVert \nabla f(x^{+})\rVert_2 \le \bigl(\tfrac{L}{2m^2}\lVert \nabla f(x)\rVert_2\bigr)^22m2L​∥∇f(x+)∥2​≤(2m2L​∥∇f(x)∥2​)2. Together they give the iteration count of B&V (9.36),

#iterations  ≤  f(x(0))−p⋆γ  +  log⁡2log⁡2(ε0/ε),γ=αβη2mM2,ε0=2m3L2,\#\text{iterations} \;\le\; \frac{f(x^{(0)}) - p^{\star}}{\gamma} \;+\; \log_2\log_2(\varepsilon_0/\varepsilon), \qquad \gamma = \frac{\alpha\beta\eta^2 m}{M^2}, \quad \varepsilon_0 = \frac{2m^3}{L^2},#iterations≤γf(x(0))−p⋆​+log2​log2​(ε0​/ε),γ=M2αβη2m​,ε0​=L22m3​,

with LLL the Lipschitz constant of the Hessian and α,β\alpha,\betaα,β the backtracking parameters. This mission formalizes Chapters 9–10 of Boyd & Vandenberghe with every constant exactly as printed — a quantitative theory entirely absent from Mathlib.

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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Convex Optimization II: KKT ConditionsTextbook

The Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions are the central result of convex optimization: for a convex differentiable problem satisfying Slater's condition, a point is optimal exactly when primal feasibility, dual feasibility, complementary slackness and Lagrangian stationarity hold. This mission formalizes Chapters 4–5 of Boyd & Vandenberghe end to end — the first-order optimality criterion, concavity of the Lagrange dual, weak duality, Slater's strong-duality theorem with dual attainment (via the separating-hyperplane argument of §5.3.2), the saddle-point characterization, sensitivity bounds and Pareto scalarization — culminating in the full KKT characterization.

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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization XIII: Lagrangean Duality and Integer ProgrammingTextbook

Linear programming has a complete duality theory; integer programming does not — and the Lagrangean dual measures exactly how far duality reaches. This mission formalizes the duality theory of integer programming from Section 11.4 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis, built on the general linear programming duality of Section 4.10. For the integer program

ZIP=min⁡{c′x:Ax≥b, Dx≥d, x integer}Z_{IP} = \min\{c'x : Ax \ge b,\ Dx \ge d,\ x \text{ integer}\}ZIP​=min{c′x:Ax≥b, Dx≥d, x integer}

with integer data, the complicating constraints Ax≥bAx \ge bAx≥b are dualized with multipliers p≥0p \ge 0p≥0 over the tractable set X={x integer∣Dx≥d}X = \{x \text{ integer} \mid Dx \ge d\}X={x integer∣Dx≥d}: the dual function is

Z(p)=min⁡x∈X(c′x+p′(b−Ax))Z(p) = \min_{x \in X}\big(c'x + p'(b - Ax)\big)Z(p)=x∈Xmin​(c′x+p′(b−Ax))

and the Lagrangean dual is ZD=max⁡p≥0Z(p)Z_D = \max_{p \ge 0} Z(p)ZD​=maxp≥0​Z(p). Weak duality ZD≤ZIPZ_D \le Z_{IP}ZD​≤ZIP​ (Theorem 11.2) always holds, but strong duality can fail. The convex hull CH(X)CH(X)CH(X) of the integer points of a polyhedron with integer data is itself a polyhedron (Theorem 11.3, Meyer's theorem), and the capstone — Theorem 11.4, the central result of Section 11.4 — identifies the Lagrangean dual exactly: ZDZ_DZD​ equals the optimal cost of the linear program

min⁡{c′x:Ax≥b, x∈CH(X)}\min\{c'x : Ax \ge b,\ x \in CH(X)\}min{c′x:Ax≥b, x∈CH(X)}

. This is the geometric explanation of the strength of Lagrangean relaxation, yields the bound ordering ZLP≤ZD≤ZIPZ_{LP} \le Z_D \le Z_{IP}ZLP​≤ZD​≤ZIP​, and Corollary 11.1 characterizes exactly when the bounds collapse. The polyhedral engine is the general weak/strong duality pair (Theorems 4.17/4.18) over a primal min⁡c′x\min c'xminc′x s.t. Ax≥bAx \ge bAx≥b, x∈P={x∣Dx≥d}x \in P = \{x \mid Dx \ge d\}x∈P={x∣Dx≥d}, and the formulation-strength comparison Psub⊆PcutP_{sub} \subseteq P_{cut}Psub​⊆Pcut​ of Theorem 10.1 supplies the motivating principle that tighter relaxations of the same integer set give sharper bounds.

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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization VII: Cones, Extreme Rays, and the Resolution TheoremTextbook

How can an unbounded polyhedron be described by finitely many geometric objects? Sections 4.8-4.9 of Bertsimas-Tsitsiklis build the cone machinery: recession cones {d∣Ad≥0}\{d \mid Ad \ge 0\}{d∣Ad≥0} and their rays, extreme rays (defined, like basic solutions, by n−1n-1n−1 linearly independent active constraints), the pointedness criterion (Theorem 4.12: 000 is an extreme point of a polyhedral cone iff the cone contains no line iff nnn of the constraint vectors are linearly independent), and the characterization of unbounded linear programs (Theorems 4.13-4.14: over a pointed polyhedral cone, and then over any polyhedron with an extreme point, the optimal cost is −∞-\infty−∞ iff some extreme ray ddd has c′d<0c'd < 0c′d<0). The capstone is the resolution theorem (Theorem 4.15): a nonempty polyhedron PPP with at least one extreme point equals Q={∑iλixi+∑jθjwj∣λi≥0,θj≥0,∑iλi=1}Q = \{\sum_i \lambda_i x^i + \sum_j \theta_j w^j \mid \lambda_i \ge 0, \theta_j \ge 0, \sum_i \lambda_i = 1\}Q={∑i​λi​xi+∑j​θj​wj∣λi​≥0,θj​≥0,∑i​λi​=1} — the convex hull of its extreme points plus the cone generated by a complete set of its extreme rays. It specializes to Theorem 2.9 / Corollary 4.4 (a nonempty bounded polyhedron is the convex hull of its extreme points) and Corollary 4.5 (a pointed polyhedral cone is generated by its extreme rays). The converse, Theorem 4.16, states that every finitely generated set is a polyhedron — in particular the convex hull of finitely many vectors is a polyhedron. Together these form the Minkowski-Weyl equivalence of the two representations of polyhedra, verified absent from Mathlib and the genuine content of this mission.

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Machine LearningOptimizationStatistics·Captain: Shuze Chen

Matrix Completion has No Spurious Local MinimumResearch Paper

Matrix completion — recovering a low-rank matrix M=ZZ⊤M = ZZ^\topM=ZZ⊤ from a small random subset of its entries — powers recommender systems and collaborative filtering. In practice it is solved by running (stochastic) gradient descent on the non-convex objective

f(X)=min⁡X12∥PΩ(M−XX⊤)∥F2+λR(X)f(X)=\min_X\frac12\|P_\Omega(M-XX^\top)\|_F^2+\lambda R(X)f(X)=Xmin​21​∥PΩ​(M−XX⊤)∥F2​+λR(X)

where Ω={(i,j)∣Mi,j is observed}\Omega=\{(i,j)|M_{i,j} \text{ is observed}\}Ω={(i,j)∣Mi,j​ is observed} and R(X)R(X)R(X) is a certain regularizer. from a random starting point, and it just works.

Ge, Lee and Ma (NeurIPS 2016 Best student paper award) explained why: the regularized objective has no spurious local minima — every local minimum is global and exactly recovers MMM. This mission formalizes that landmark theorem in Lean 4, in its strongest known form and along its simplest known proof: the unified landscape analysis of Ge–Jin–Zheng (ICML 2017) and an improved sampling bound in Chen–Li (JMLR 2019). Conditional on an explicit good-sample predicate (which holds with high probability under Bernoulli sampling), every local minimum XXX of fff satisfies XX⊤=ZZ⊤XX^\top = ZZ^\topXX⊤=ZZ⊤.

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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine Learning·Captain: Shuze Chen

Bandit Algorithms XV: Partial MonitoringTextbook

Bandit feedback is only one point on a spectrum: a learner might see more than its own loss (full information) or less (a spam filter never learns what happened to mail it deleted). Chapter 37 of Lattimore–Szepesvári studies finite adversarial games G=(L,Φ)G = (\mathcal{L}, \Phi)G=(L,Φ) where the loss matrix and the feedback matrix are decoupled. The goal theorem is the celebrated classification theorem: every finite partial-monitoring game has minimax regret exactly 000, Θ(n)\Theta(\sqrt{n})Θ(n​), Θ(n2/3)\Theta(n^{2/3})Θ(n2/3) or Ω(n)\Omega(n)Ω(n) — determined by two purely combinatorial conditions, global and local observability, on the game's neighbourhood structure. A single geometric dichotomy thus governs the price of information in every online decision problem with finite actions and feedback.

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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine Learning·Captain: Shuze Chen

Bandit Algorithms X: Stochastic Linear Bandits and LinUCBTextbook

When actions are feature vectors and the mean reward is linear — Xt=⟨θ∗,At⟩+ηtX_t = \langle \theta_*, A_t\rangle + \eta_tXt​=⟨θ∗​,At​⟩+ηt​ — a bandit can generalize across arms: pulling one arm reveals information about all of them. Chapter 19 of Lattimore–Szepesvári carries the optimism principle into this setting: LinUCB (a.k.a. OFUL) plays the action maximizing max⁡θ∈Ct⟨θ,a⟩\max_{\theta\in\mathcal{C}_t}\langle\theta, a\ranglemaxθ∈Ct​​⟨θ,a⟩ over the confidence ellipsoid Ct\mathcal{C}_tCt​ of Mission IX. The goal theorem: with probability 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, R^n≤8nβnlog⁡det⁡Vndet⁡V0≤8dnβnlog⁡dλ+nL2dλ\hat R_n \le \sqrt{8n\beta_n \log\frac{\det V_n}{\det V_0}} \le \sqrt{8dn\beta_n\log\frac{d\lambda + nL^2}{d\lambda}}R^n​≤8nβn​logdetV0​detVn​​​≤8dnβn​logdλdλ+nL2​​ — regret O~(dn)\tilde O(d\sqrt{n})O~(dn​) independent of the number of actions. The combinatorial engine is the elliptical potential lemma, bounding how many times adaptively chosen directions can be surprising. Chapter 22's phased elimination with G-optimal design (Mission IX) sharpens this to O~(dnlog⁡k)\tilde O(\sqrt{dn\log k})O~(dnlogk​) for finite action sets.

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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine Learning·Captain: Shuze Chen

Bandit Algorithms IX: Self-Normalized Concentration and Optimal DesignTextbook

Least-squares estimation from adaptively collected data is the statistical heart of linear bandits: the actions AtA_tAt​ depend on past noise, so classical fixed-design theory does not apply. Chapter 20 of Lattimore–Szepesvári resolves this with the method of mixtures: the process Mt(x)=exp⁡(⟨x,St⟩−12∥x∥Vt(λ)2)M_t(x) = \exp(\langle x, S_t\rangle - \frac{1}{2}\|x\|^2_{V_t(\lambda)})Mt​(x)=exp(⟨x,St​⟩−21​∥x∥Vt​(λ)2​) is a supermartingale, and integrating over a Gaussian mixture yields the self-normalized bound — the goal theorem — P(∃t:∥St∥Vt(λ)−12≥2log⁡1δ+log⁡det⁡Vt(λ)λd)≤δ\mathbb{P}\big(\exists t : \|S_t\|^2_{V_t(\lambda)^{-1}} \ge 2\log\frac{1}{\delta} + \log\frac{\det V_t(\lambda)}{\lambda^d}\big) \le \deltaP(∃t:∥St​∥Vt​(λ)−12​≥2logδ1​+logλddetVt​(λ)​)≤δ, valid uniformly over all times. The resulting confidence ellipsoids for the regularized least-squares estimator (Abbasi-Yadkori et al.) calibrate every algorithm of Mission X. The mission also formalizes the Kiefer–Wolfowitz theorem of Chapter 21: G-optimal and D-optimal experimental designs coincide, with optimal value exactly ddd — the classical equivalence theorem of optimal design theory.

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Markov ChainReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonstationary Reinforcement Learning: The Blessing of (More) Optimism III: Under Uniform One-Step Reachability ζ, the Un-widened Confidence Region Contains an MDP of Diameter at Most 1/ζResearch Paper

Motivation

Reinforcement learning in a changing environment has a difficulty that is absent from a fixed Markov decision process: transition data gathered earlier may describe a different system from the one the decision maker currently faces. A learning algorithm therefore estimates transitions from a recent window of observations. The estimate comes with a confidence region, a set of transition laws consistent with the data at a chosen statistical radius. In the general nonstationary setting studied by Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, their algorithm widens this region to ensure that it can contain a model whose states remain readily reachable. Such a model is needed for the paper's dynamic regret analysis. Section 7 isolates a structural condition under which widening is unnecessary: every destination is reachable from every state with a uniformly positive one-step probability under a suitable action. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, §7.

This mission formalizes Proposition 4 of that paper, the precise claim that the original, unwidened transition region contains a model with a controlled diameter. It is one of three separate missions for the paper. The result supports the paper's no-widening variant of its learning algorithm; it is not a claim that every model in the confidence region has small diameter. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, Proposition 4.

Setting

There are finitely many states S\mathcal SS and, for each state sss, a nonempty finite set As\mathcal A_sAs​ of permitted actions. At each time t∈[T]t\in[T]t∈[T], the system has a reward rt(s,a)∈[0,1]r_t(s,a)\in[0,1]rt​(s,a)∈[0,1] and a probability distribution pt(⋅∣s,a)p_t(\cdot\mid s,a)pt​(⋅∣s,a) for the next state. The distribution may change with ttt. A trajectory records the observed state sqs_qsq​, chosen action aqa_qaq​, and successor state sq+1s_{q+1}sq+1​ at each time qqq. These are the model primitives in §2.2. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, pp. 6–7.

An episode begins at τ(m)\tau(m)τ(m) and uses a window of length WWW. At time ttt in that episode, Nt(s,a)N_t(s,a)Nt​(s,a) counts how often the pair (s,a)(s,a)(s,a) appears between (τ(m)−W)∨1(\tau(m)-W)\vee1(τ(m)−W)∨1 and t−1t-1t−1; Nt+(s,a)=max⁡{1,Nt(s,a)}N_t^+(s,a)=\max\{1,N_t(s,a)\}Nt+​(s,a)=max{1,Nt​(s,a)}. The empirical row p^t(⋅∣s,a)\hat p_t(\cdot\mid s,a)p^​t​(⋅∣s,a) counts observed successors and divides by Nt+(s,a)N_t^+(s,a)Nt+​(s,a). The corresponding average true row pˉt\bar p_tpˉ​t​ averages the time-varying transition probabilities over the same visits. Both are zero vectors when there are no visits. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, equations (3) and (5).

Write SA=∑s∣As∣SA=\sum_s|\mathcal A_s|SA=∑s​∣As​∣, so this is the number of allowed state-action pairs. At confidence level δ\deltaδ, the transition radius is rad⁡p,t(s,a)=22Slog⁡(SAT/δ)/Nt+(s,a)\operatorname{rad}_{p,t}(s,a)=2\sqrt{2S\log(SAT/\delta)/N_t^+(s,a)}radp,t​(s,a)=22Slog(SAT/δ)/Nt+​(s,a)​. The region Hp,t(s,a;η)H_{p,t}(s,a;\eta)Hp,t​(s,a;η) consists of probability vectors within ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ distance rad⁡p,t(s,a)+η\operatorname{rad}_{p,t}(s,a)+\etaradp,t​(s,a)+η of p^t\hat p_tp^​t​. Here η=0\eta=0η=0 means no widening. The estimation event EpE_pEp​ bounds the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ distance between pˉt\bar p_tpˉ​t​ and p^t\hat p_tp^​t​ by that radius for each allowed pair. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, pp. 12, 14.

For a stationary transition model and policy π\piπ, the hitting time Λ(s′∣π,s)\Lambda(s'\mid\pi,s)Λ(s′∣π,s) counts transitions until the first arrival at s′s's′ after starting at sss. This includes the first return time when s=s′s=s's=s′. Its diameter is D=max⁡s,s′min⁡πE[Λ(s′∣π,s)]D=\max_{s,s'}\min_\pi\mathbb E[\Lambda(s'\mid\pi,s)]D=maxs,s′​minπ​E[Λ(s′∣π,s)]. Infinite expectations are possible in the definition. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, Definition 1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4

Assumption 2 supplies ζ>0\zeta>0ζ>0 and an allowed action a(s,s′)a_{(s,s')}a(s,s′)​ for every ordered pair of states, fixed across time, such that pt(s′∣s,a(s,s′))≥ζp_t(s'\mid s,a_{(s,s')})\ge\zetapt​(s′∣s,a(s,s′)​)≥ζ for all t∈[T]t\in[T]t∈[T]. Conditional on EpE_pEp​, Proposition 4 says that for every time in the horizon there exists a transition model ppp whose every allowed row belongs to Hp,t(s,a;0)H_{p,t}(s,a;0)Hp,t​(s,a;0) and whose diameter obeys

D(S,A,p)≤Dˉ:=1ζ.D(\mathcal S,\mathcal A,p)\le\bar D:=\frac1\zeta.D(S,A,p)≤Dˉ:=ζ1​.

The target is existential: the region need only contain one such model at each time. The milestone list follows the two cases in the proof of Lemma 13, the lemma's model existence claim, and the expected hitting-time bound in the proof of Proposition 4. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, pp. 21, 49–50.

Significance

Proposition 4 identifies a condition under which the algorithm can use η=0\eta=0η=0 while retaining a uniform diameter guarantee for at least one plausible transition model. The paper uses this to analyze a no-widening version of its dynamic regret bound, and later applies that viewpoint to inventory control. Without a bounded-diameter model in the region, the diameter-dependent regret argument does not apply in the same form. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, §7.

The proposition and its appendix proof are known results of the paper. This mission asks for a machine-checked account of the exact confidence region, its pathwise estimation event, Lemma 13, and the diameter claim. A general finite MDP with probability-valued transition rows is already available as the published FiniteMDPLearning definition; the paper-specific window estimators and its return-time diameter still need formal proofs. The paper's headline Theorems 1–4 are not posed here because their displayed bounds hide constants in O~(⋅)\widetilde O(\cdot)O(⋅) notation. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, p. 6 and Theorems 1–4.

Difficulty

The obvious idea that the true transition law belongs to the confidence region can fail under drift: the region is centered on recent observations, while the law at the current time may differ from the laws that generated those observations. Even the average true row has a special case. At an unvisited pair, equation (5) sets it to the zero vector, which is not a probability distribution and therefore is not a member of the simplex-valued confidence region. The existence claim must cover visited and unvisited pairs while preserving one-step reachability for all targets under a single transition law. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, pp. 12, 49–50.

The diameter also uses the paper's first-arrival-after-start convention. A library travel time that is zero when source equals target misses the return-time cases and would weaken the stated conclusion. Cheung, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, Definition 1.

Formalization scope

States and actions are Fin S and Fin A; permitted actions are state-dependent finite sets. Extra MDP rows for disallowed actions are never consulted. The finite MDP type supplies valid probability rows and bounded rewards. Hitting times and the diameter use extended nonnegative reals, so infinite values are represented without a default real value. The diameter ranges over allowed deterministic stationary policies and over all ordered state pairs, including equal pairs. Time is zero-based in Lean: paper time t∈[T]t\in[T]t∈[T] is index t−1<Tt-1<Tt−1<T, and the paper's window becomes the half-open interval [τm-W,t). The paper's N+N^+N+ is at least one, so its estimators never divide by zero. A result at arbitrary ttt with τm≤t<T\tau_m\le t<Tτm​≤t<T covers every episode time without assuming any additional episode schedule property.

The Lean statement makes two domain conditions explicit: S>1S>1S>1 and 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1. These ensure the paper's claim that the radius at an unvisited pair is at least one; it can fail when S=1S=1S=1 and the confidence level is close to one. Assumption 2 is required for every time in the horizon, with ζ>0\zeta>0ζ>0. The event EpE_pEp​ is the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ estimation inequality at the selected time. The paper writes it as membership of pˉt\bar p_tpˉ​t​ in a simplex-valued region for every pair, but that literal wording is false at an unvisited pair because pˉt=0\bar p_t=0pˉ​t​=0 there. At visited pairs, the inequality and membership agree. This convention is disclosed in the definition item and keeps the theorem meaningful on ordinary early trajectories.

The region is centered at the exact empirical p^t\hat p_tp^​t​, uses η=0\eta=0η=0, and constrains every allowed row of the constructed model. The diameter uses its full extended-real value, and ζ\zetaζ is strictly positive; dropping any of these clauses would change the claim. Reusable contributions include finite-state hitting-time estimates and windowed transition estimation identities. Proofs of the four milestones and the goal, as well as small lemmas connecting the published MDP measure to successive transition rows, are welcome.

Selected references

  • W. C. Cheung, D. Simchi-Levi and R. Zhu, Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning: The Blessing of (More) Optimism, arXiv:1906.02922v4, 2020; published as Nonstationary Reinforcement Learning: The Blessing of (More) Optimism, Management Science, 2023. arXiv
  • T. Jaksch, R. Ortner and P. Auer, Near-optimal Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11, 2010. JMLR
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On-Demand Delivery from Stores: Dynamic Dispatching and Routing with Random Demand II: A Route Whose Reduced Cost Exceeds ub − φ(RF1) Is in No Optimal Solution of the Routing Subproblem SF1Research Paper

Motivation

Grocery chains and restaurants that promise delivery within an hour or less must decide, at each dispatch epoch, which drivers to send out and along which routes. Liu and Luo (arXiv:2107.13058v3; Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023) model this as a finite-horizon dynamic program and solve its per-period approximation with a logic-based Benders decomposition: a master problem chooses how many drivers to commit to future periods, and a routing subproblem then picks the routes that serve the current orders.

The routing subproblem is a set-partitioning integer program over an exponentially large route set. The paper solves it with a route enumeration algorithm, which generates only the routes that can still appear in an optimal solution. The pruning rule that makes this work is Lemma 2 (p. 19): a route whose LP reduced cost exceeds the gap between an upper bound and the LP bound cannot appear in any optimal solution. Rules of this kind, reduced-cost fixing for set-partitioning formulations, are a standard component of exact vehicle-routing algorithms (see, e.g., Baldacci, Christofides, Mingozzi 2008). This mission formalizes Lemma 2 for the paper's own subproblem.

Setting

Fix a period nnn and a solution (xˉ,zˉ)(\bar{\mathbf x},\bar{\mathbf z})(xˉ,zˉ) of the master problem. The data are:

  • a finite set Rn\mathcal R^nRn of feasible routes, a finite set In\mathcal I^nIn of current customer locations, and the future periods n′∈{n+1,…,N}n'\in\{n+1,\dots,N\}n′∈{n+1,…,N};
  • a route cost crc_rcr​ for every r∈Rnr\in\mathcal R^nr∈Rn;
  • coverage coefficients αi,r∈{0,1}\alpha_{i,r}\in\{0,1\}αi,r​∈{0,1} (route rrr serves location iii) and occupancy coefficients βn′,r∈{0,1}\beta_{n',r}\in\{0,1\}βn′,r​∈{0,1} (route rrr is still running in period n′n'n′);
  • the fleet size Kˉ\bar KKˉ, the number ζnn\zeta^n_nζnn​ of drivers still en route in period nnn, and master values zˉkn′∈{0,1}\bar z^{n'}_k\in\{0,1\}zˉkn′​∈{0,1} with ∑k=0Kˉzˉkn′=1\sum_{k=0}^{\bar K}\bar z^{n'}_k=1∑k=0Kˉ​zˉkn′​=1.

Write bn′=∑k=0Kˉk zˉkn′b_{n'}=\sum_{k=0}^{\bar K}k\,\bar z^{n'}_kbn′​=∑k=0Kˉ​kzˉkn′​, the number of drivers the master solution allows to remain occupied in period n′n'n′.

The routing subproblem SF1 (pp. 16–17) is

min⁡ ∑r∈Rnθrcrs.t.∑rβn′,rθr≤bn′ ∀n′,∑rθr≤Kˉ−ζnn,∑rαi,rθr=1 ∀i∈In,θr∈{0,1}.\min\ \sum_{r\in\mathcal R^n}\theta_r c_r\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_r\beta_{n',r}\theta_r\le b_{n'}\ \forall n',\qquad \sum_r\theta_r\le\bar K-\zeta^n_n,\qquad \sum_r\alpha_{i,r}\theta_r=1\ \forall i\in\mathcal I^n,\qquad \theta_r\in\{0,1\}.min r∈Rn∑​θr​cr​s.t.r∑​βn′,r​θr​≤bn′​ ∀n′,r∑​θr​≤Kˉ−ζnn​,r∑​αi,r​θr​=1 ∀i∈In,θr​∈{0,1}.

Its LP relaxation RF1 replaces θr∈{0,1}\theta_r\in\{0,1\}θr​∈{0,1} by θr≥0\theta_r\ge0θr​≥0 and the partitioning rows by covering rows ∑rαi,rθr≥1\sum_r\alpha_{i,r}\theta_r\ge1∑r​αi,r​θr​≥1; ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) denotes its optimal cost. The dual variables are μn′\mu_{n'}μn′​ for the occupancy rows, μn\mu_nμn​ for the fleet row and νi\nu_iνi​ for the covering rows. The reduced cost of a route rrr with respect to a dual solution (μ,μn,ν)(\mu,\mu_n,\nu)(μ,μn​,ν) is

cˉr=cr−∑i∈Inαi,rνi−∑n′=n+1Nβn′,rμn′−μn.\bar c_r=c_r-\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n}\alpha_{i,r}\nu_i-\sum_{n'=n+1}^N\beta_{n',r}\mu_{n'}-\mu_n .cˉr​=cr​−i∈In∑​αi,r​νi​−n′=n+1∑N​βn′,r​μn′​−μn​.

An upper bound ububub of SF1 is a number at least as large as the optimal cost of SF1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 2 (p. 19)

Let ububub be an upper bound of SF1, ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) the optimal cost of RF1, (μ,μn,ν)(\mu,\mu_n,\nu)(μ,μn​,ν) a dual optimal solution of RF1, and r∈Rnr\in\mathcal R^nr∈Rn. If

cr−∑i∈Inαi,rνi−∑n′=n+1Nβn′,rμn′−μn>ub−ϕ(RF1),c_r-\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n}\alpha_{i,r}\nu_i-\sum_{n'=n+1}^N\beta_{n',r}\mu_{n'}-\mu_n>ub-\phi(\mathrm{RF1}),cr​−i∈In∑​αi,r​νi​−n′=n+1∑N​βn′,r​μn′​−μn​>ub−ϕ(RF1),

then θr=0\theta_r=0θr​=0 in every optimal solution θ\thetaθ of SF1.

Milestones (Appendix G, p. 42)

For a route rrr, let Irn={i∣αi,r=0}\mathcal I^n_r=\{i\mid\alpha_{i,r}=0\}Irn​={i∣αi,r​=0}, let Rrn\mathcal R^n_rRrn​ be the routes that cover only locations in Irn\mathcal I^n_rIrn​, and let SF1r_rr​ be SF1 on Rrn\mathcal R^n_rRrn​ and Irn\mathcal I^n_rIrn​ with right-hand sides bn′−βn′,rb_{n'}-\beta_{n',r}bn′​−βn′,r​ and Kˉ−ζnn−1\bar K-\zeta^n_n-1Kˉ−ζnn​−1; RF1r_rr​ (75)–(79) is its LP relaxation, and ϕ(SF1r)∈R∪{+∞}\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)\in\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}ϕ(SF1r​)∈R∪{+∞} its optimal cost.

  1. (74) If cr+ϕ(SF1r)>ubc_r+\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)>ubcr​+ϕ(SF1r​)>ub, then rrr is in no optimal solution of SF1.
  2. Dual bound. For any dual feasible (μˉ,μˉn,νˉ)(\bar\mu,\bar\mu_n,\bar\nu)(μˉ​,μˉ​n​,νˉ) of RF1, the restriction (μˉ,μˉn,{νˉi}i∈Irn)(\bar\mu,\bar\mu_n,\{\bar\nu_i\}_{i\in\mathcal I^n_r})(μˉ​,μˉ​n​,{νˉi​}i∈Irn​​) is dual feasible for RF1r_rr​, and
∑n′μˉn′bn′−∑n′βn′,rμˉn′+μˉn(Kˉ−ζnn−1)+∑i∈Irnνˉi≤ϕ(SF1r).\sum_{n'}\bar\mu_{n'}b_{n'}-\sum_{n'}\beta_{n',r}\bar\mu_{n'}+\bar\mu_n(\bar K-\zeta^n_n-1)+\sum_{i\in\mathcal I^n_r}\bar\nu_i\le\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r).n′∑​μˉ​n′​bn′​−n′∑​βn′,r​μˉ​n′​+μˉ​n​(Kˉ−ζnn​−1)+i∈Irn​∑​νˉi​≤ϕ(SF1r​).
  1. (80) ⇔ (81) For a dual optimal solution of RF1, crc_rcr​ plus the bound of milestone 2 exceeds ububub if and only if the reduced-cost condition of Lemma 2 holds.

Significance

The result. Lemma 2 turns one LP solve into an elimination test for every route at once. The route enumeration algorithm of §5.3 generates only routes whose reduced cost is at most a gap δ\deltaδ, raises δ\deltaδ until it reaches ub−ϕ(RF1)ub-\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ub−ϕ(RF1), and at that point the enumerated route set is guaranteed to contain every optimal solution of SF1. Without the lemma the algorithm would not certify optimality. The same algorithm also solves the single-period problems in the offline estimation stage of the paper's policy, so its correctness underlies all the computational results.

Formalizing it. The lemma is proved in the paper's Online Appendix (Appendix G, p. 42) in a few lines that rest on unstated conventions: the signs of the dual variables, the right-hand sides of SF1r_rr​, and the equality of ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) with the dual objective of a dual optimal solution, which is LP strong duality. The formalization pins each of these down. The strong-duality step is available on the platform as LinearOptimization.lp_strong_duality (proved, for general-form LPs indexed by Fin), included as a reference item. No part of this mission is formalized elsewhere.

Difficulty

The elimination test (74) and the dual bound are short combinatorial and weak-duality arguments. The step that does not go through by algebra alone is (80) ⇔ (81): it requires that the dual objective of the dual optimal solution equals ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1). Treating this equality as a hypothesis would make the step trivial and is excluded; the hypothesis is only that the dual solution maximizes the dual objective over the dual feasible set. Deriving the equality means applying LP strong duality to RF1, whose data are indexed by arbitrary finite types rather than by Fin, so a transport to the platform's general-form LP is needed. A second point is the passage from SF1 to SF1r_rr​: removing a route from an optimal solution must yield a feasible point of SF1r_rr​, which depends on the reduced right-hand sides and on the partitioning rows of SF1 forcing the other routes to avoid rrr's customers.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace OnDemandDelivery.RouteElim. Routes, locations and future periods are arbitrary Fintypes; route vectors are functions to ℝ; Kˉ\bar KKˉ and ζnn\zeta^n_nζnn​ are natural numbers and Kˉ−ζnn\bar K-\zeta^n_nKˉ−ζnn​ is computed in ℝ. The standing assumptions are αi,r,βn′,r∈{0,1}\alpha_{i,r},\beta_{n',r}\in\{0,1\}αi,r​,βn′,r​∈{0,1}, zˉkn′∈{0,1}\bar z^{n'}_k\in\{0,1\}zˉkn′​∈{0,1} and ∑kzˉkn′=1\sum_k\bar z^{n'}_k=1∑k​zˉkn′​=1 (pp. 15–16, (17), (21)).

Conventions committed to:

  • ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) is the attained minimum of the cost over the RF1 feasible set (IsLeast), not an arbitrary real.
  • The RF1 dual uses the standard signs for a minimization, which the paper does not print: μn′≤0\mu_{n'}\le0μn′​≤0, μn≤0\mu_n\le0μn​≤0, νi≥0\nu_i\ge0νi​≥0. "Dual optimal" means dual feasible and maximal for the dual objective.
  • "An upper bound ububub of SF1" is the weakest reading: ububub is at least the cost of every optimal solution of SF1.
  • "rrr cannot be in any optimal solution" is θr=0\theta_r=0θr​=0 for every optimal solution of the binary program SF1, not of RF1.
  • SF1r_rr​ has the reduced right-hand sides of (76)–(77); (76)'s unbarred zkn′z^{n'}_kzkn′​ is read as zˉkn′\bar z^{n'}_kzˉkn′​. ϕ(SF1r)\phi(\mathrm{SF1}_r)ϕ(SF1r​) is an EReal, +∞+\infty+∞ when SF1r_rr​ is infeasible, and (74) is stated in EReal.
  • The double sum ∑n′∑kμˉn′kzˉkn′\sum_{n'}\sum_k\bar\mu_{n'}k\bar z^{n'}_k∑n′​∑k​μˉ​n′​kzˉkn′​ is written ∑n′μˉn′bn′\sum_{n'}\bar\mu_{n'}b_{n'}∑n′​μˉ​n′​bn′​.
  • Milestone 2 assumes only dual feasibility, a strengthening of the page's dual optimality.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) is not a free real, the dual solution is optimal and not merely feasible, no hypothesis states ϕ(RF1)\phi(\mathrm{RF1})ϕ(RF1) equals the dual objective, and the conclusion concerns optimal solutions of SF1.

Needed infrastructure: weak duality for the two LPs (elementary), and a bridge from RF1 to LinearOptimization.GeneralFormLP for strong duality, which is reusable for any LP stated over finite index types. Contributions of such a transport lemma are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Liu, Z. Luo, On-Demand Delivery from Stores: Dynamic Dispatching and Routing with Random Demand, arXiv:2107.13058v3, 2022; Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13058
  • R. Baldacci, N. Christofides, A. Mingozzi, An exact algorithm for the vehicle routing problem based on the set partitioning formulation with additional cuts, Mathematical Programming 115 (2008) 351–385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0178-5
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997 (Theorem 4.4, strong duality).
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Number TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Integer Factorization: Why Two-Item Joint Replenishment Is Hard 2: For Odd Composite M, Every Optimal Plan of an Explicit Two-Item Periodic JRP Instance Has q₂ = M and 1 < gcd(q₁, M) < MResearch Paper

Motivation

The joint replenishment problem (JRP) is a basic model of inventory coordination: several items are ordered from one supplier, each item pays its own ordering and holding costs, and an additional item-independent joint ordering cost rewards ordering the items at common times. Two accounting conventions are studied. In the periodic JRP (also called the general integer model; see the survey of Goyal and Satir, 1989) the joint cost is charged at every point of a common grid, whether or not an item is ordered there; in the aperiodic JRP it is charged only at actual order times.

For decades the literature produced heuristics and enumerative algorithms for the JRP without a polynomial-time exact algorithm and without evidence that none exists. Schulz and Telha (arXiv:2007.09045v1; published in Operations Research, 2024, as Integer Factorization: Why Two-Item Joint Replenishment Is Hard) showed that already the two-item problem is at least as hard as integer factorization, in both variants. For the periodic JRP the paper notes (p. 10): "No hardness results were previously known for the periodic JRP."

Timeline, as recorded in the paper (pp. 4–5):

  • 2011: Schulz and Telha announce that the two-item aperiodic JRP is at least as hard as integer factorization (Theorem 1(a)).
  • 2018: Cohen-Hillel and Yedidsion prove that the aperiodic JRP with an arbitrary number of items is strongly NP-hard.
  • 2020: the preprint arXiv:2007.09045v1 adds the periodic case (Theorem 1(b), via Lemma 2, the subject of this mission) and, assuming the Riemann hypothesis, NP-hardness of the two-item periodic JRP under randomized reductions (Theorem 2).

Setting

An item with ordering cost K≥0K \ge 0K≥0 and holding cost H≥0H \ge 0H≥0, replenished every qqq time units, where qqq is a positive integer, has the EOQ cost

EOQK,H(q)=Kq+Hq.\mathrm{EOQ}_{K,H}(q) = \frac{K}{q} + Hq .EOQK,H​(q)=qK​+Hq.

In the two-item periodic JRP, item i∈{1,2}i \in \{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has parameters (Ki,Hi)(K_i, H_i)(Ki​,Hi​) and an integer period qi≥1q_i \ge 1qi​≥1, and a joint ordering cost K0>0K_0 > 0K0​>0 is incurred every ρ\rhoρ time units, where ρ\rhoρ divides both periods. At an optimum ρ=gcd⁡(q1,q2)\rho = \gcd(q_1,q_2)ρ=gcd(q1​,q2​), and the problem is to minimize objective (3) of the paper,

JRP(q1,q2)=EOQK1,H1(q1)+EOQK2,H2(q2)+K0gcd⁡(q1,q2),q1,q2∈Z+.\mathrm{JRP}(q_1,q_2) = \mathrm{EOQ}_{K_1,H_1}(q_1) + \mathrm{EOQ}_{K_2,H_2}(q_2) + \frac{K_0}{\gcd(q_1,q_2)}, \qquad q_1,q_2 \in \mathbb{Z}^+ .JRP(q1​,q2​)=EOQK1​,H1​​(q1​)+EOQK2​,H2​​(q2​)+gcd(q1​,q2​)K0​​,q1​,q2​∈Z+.

An optimal solution is a pair of positive integers whose value is at most the value of every pair of positive integers.

Given a natural number MMM, the instance of Lemma 2 is

K0=M,K1=0,H1=1,H2=M(M+1),K2=M3(M+1),K_0 = M,\quad K_1 = 0,\quad H_1 = 1,\quad H_2 = M(M+1),\quad K_2 = M^3(M+1),K0​=M,K1​=0,H1​=1,H2​=M(M+1),K2​=M3(M+1),

with objective written JRPM\mathrm{JRP}_MJRPM​ and item 2's cost EOQ2(q)=K2/q+H2q\mathrm{EOQ}_2(q) = K_2/q + H_2 qEOQ2​(q)=K2​/q+H2​q. Fixing q2=Mq_2 = Mq2​=M leaves the single-variable problem (4):

min⁡ Mgcd⁡(q,M)+qs.t. q∈Z+.\min\ \frac{M}{\gcd(q,M)} + q \quad \text{s.t. } q \in \mathbb{Z}^+ .min gcd(q,M)M​+qs.t. q∈Z+.

An odd composite number is an odd integer M>1M > 1M>1 that is not prime.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 2 (p. 11)

For every odd composite MMM: the coefficients of the instance above satisfy K0>0K_0 > 0K0​>0 and are natural numbers at most M5M^5M5; the instance has an optimal solution; and every optimal solution (q1,q2)(q_1,q_2)(q1​,q2​) satisfies

q2=Mand1<gcd⁡(q1,M)<M.q_2 = M \quad\text{and}\quad 1 < \gcd(q_1, M) < M .q2​=Mand1<gcd(q1​,M)<M.

The goal does not say which non-trivial divisor gcd⁡(q1,M)\gcd(q_1,M)gcd(q1​,M) is: optimal solutions need not be unique (for M=15M = 15M=15 both q1=3q_1 = 3q1​=3 and q1=5q_1 = 5q1​=5 are optimal).

Milestones (proof of Lemma 2, pp. 11–12)

  1. For q2≠Mq_2 \ne Mq2​=M: EOQ2(q2)≥EOQ2(M±1)=EOQ2(M)+H2M±1≥EOQ2(M)+M\mathrm{EOQ}_2(q_2) \ge \mathrm{EOQ}_2(M \pm 1) = \mathrm{EOQ}_2(M) + \frac{H_2}{M\pm 1} \ge \mathrm{EOQ}_2(M) + MEOQ2​(q2​)≥EOQ2​(M±1)=EOQ2​(M)+M±1H2​​≥EOQ2​(M)+M.
  2. For q2≠Mq_2 \ne Mq2​=M: JRPM(q1,q2)>M+EOQ2(M)+1=JRPM(M,M)\mathrm{JRP}_M(q_1,q_2) > M + \mathrm{EOQ}_2(M) + 1 = \mathrm{JRP}_M(M,M)JRPM​(q1​,q2​)>M+EOQ2​(M)+1=JRPM​(M,M).
  3. With q2=Mq_2 = Mq2​=M the instance reduces to problem (4): JRPM(q1,M)=EOQ2(M)+Mgcd⁡(q1,M)+q1\mathrm{JRP}_M(q_1,M) = \mathrm{EOQ}_2(M) + \frac{M}{\gcd(q_1,M)} + q_1JRPM​(q1​,M)=EOQ2​(M)+gcd(q1​,M)M​+q1​.
  4. An odd composite MMM has a divisor ppp with 3≤p≤M/33 \le p \le M/33≤p≤M/3.
  5. For such ppp: Mgcd⁡(p,M)+p≤2M3\frac{M}{\gcd(p,M)} + p \le \frac{2M}{3}gcd(p,M)M​+p≤32M​.
  6. If gcd⁡(q,M)=1\gcd(q,M) = 1gcd(q,M)=1 or gcd⁡(q,M)=M\gcd(q,M) = Mgcd(q,M)=M, then Mgcd⁡(q,M)+q≥M\frac{M}{\gcd(q,M)} + q \ge Mgcd(q,M)M​+q≥M.

Significance

The result. Lemma 2 says that an exact solver for the two-item periodic JRP, applied to an instance whose coefficients have size O(log⁡M)O(\log M)O(logM), returns a pair from which a non-trivial divisor of MMM is read off as gcd⁡(q1,M)\gcd(q_1, M)gcd(q1​,M). Repeating on the factors yields the full factorization, so a polynomial-time algorithm for the two-item periodic JRP would give a polynomial-time algorithm for integer factorization (Theorem 1(b), p. 12). Since the security of RSA-type cryptosystems rests on the belief that factoring is hard, the lemma explains why exact algorithms for even two items have not been found. Section 3 of the paper extends the same construction to a reduction from a range-divisor problem that is NP-complete under randomized reductions, assuming the Riemann hypothesis; that extension is a separate mission of this series.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, and the proof is short. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a Lean statement of the reduction's correctness with the explicit instance, and its proof together with the intermediate steps of the paper's argument. One printed step needs a correction (milestone 4, see below), which a machine-checked proof makes explicit.

Difficulty

Two points need care. First, the claim concerns every optimal solution of a problem over all pairs of positive integers, so it needs both a global lower bound for every pair with q2≠Mq_2 \ne Mq2​=M and the existence of an optimum, which the paper does not state: the objective must be shown to attain its infimum over an infinite discrete domain. Second, the step separating non-trivial from trivial greatest common divisors depends on a divisor of a specific size: the printed claim "a non-trivial divisor ppp with 3≤p<M/33 \le p < M/33≤p<M/3" is false for M=9M = 9M=9, whose only non-trivial divisor is 3=M/33 = M/33=M/3. The corrected bound p≤M/3p \le M/3p≤M/3 still gives the value 2M/3<M2M/3 < M2M/3<M that the argument needs, but only because M≥9M \ge 9M≥9 for every odd composite MMM. A direct convexity argument for item 2 alone does not finish the proof: item 1's cost and the joint cost interact through gcd⁡(q1,q2)\gcd(q_1,q_2)gcd(q1​,q2​), which is not convex in either variable.

Formalization scope

This mission formalizes the correctness of the reduction behind Theorem 1(b); polynomial running time is not formalized. Theorem 1(b) itself, the recursion that turns one divisor into a full factorization, primality testing, and the treatment of even MMM (p. 10) are not stated.

Conventions committed to:

  • Periods are natural numbers cast to R\mathbb{R}R, and every optimality notion and every milestone ranges over positive periods only, because in Lean K/0=0K/0 = 0K/0=0 and gcd⁡(0,M)=M\gcd(0, M) = Mgcd(0,M)=M.
  • Costs are real numbers; the coefficients of the instance are natural-number expressions in MMM.
  • Objective (3) is the model and is defined directly; the derivation ρ=gcd⁡(q1,q2)\rho = \gcd(q_1,q_2)ρ=gcd(q1​,q2​) (p. 10, with B=1B = 1B=1) is not formalized.
  • "Odd composite" is encoded as Odd M ∧ 1 < M ∧ ¬ M.Prime.
  • "The size of the coefficients is at most 5log⁡(M)5\log(M)5log(M)" is stated as "every coefficient is at most M5M^5M5".

Disclosed differences from the printed lemma: the goal names the explicit instance of the proof's first sentence instead of "there is an instance" (a stronger statement); it adds the existence of an optimal solution, so that "every optimal solution satisfies …" is not vacuous; and milestone 4 uses p≤M/3p \le M/3p≤M/3 in place of the printed p<M/3p < M/3p<M/3. Milestones 1–3 and 6 are stated for every MMM with M≥2M \ge 2M≥2 (or every MMM), which contains the paper's case. A formalization with an existential instance, an unattained or empty set of optima, or periods allowed to be 000 would make the goal trivial or wrong; all three are excluded.

Infrastructure: the definitions (EOQ cost, objective (3), optimality over positive integer pairs) are short and local to this mission; the same objects appear in the companion missions of this series under their own namespaces. Mathlib supplies Nat.gcd, Nat.minFac and Nat.minFac_sq_le_self. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently; the existence of an optimum is the one ingredient not present among the milestones.

Selected references

  • A. S. Schulz and C. Telha, Integer factorization and Riemann's hypothesis: Why two-item joint replenishment is hard, arXiv preprint, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.09045v1 (published as Integer Factorization: Why Two-Item Joint Replenishment Is Hard, Operations Research, 2024).
  • S. K. Goyal and A. T. Satir, Joint replenishment inventory control: Deterministic and stochastic models, European Journal of Operational Research 38(1):2–13, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(89)90463-3
  • T. Cohen-Hillel and L. Yedidsion, The periodic joint replenishment problem is strongly NP-hard, Mathematics of Operations Research 43(4):1269–1289, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2017.0904
  • F. W. Harris, How many parts to make at once, Factory, The Magazine of Management 10(2):135–136, 152, 1913; reprinted in Operations Research 38(6):947–950, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.38.6.947
  • M. Agrawal, N. Kayal and N. Saxena, PRIMES is in P, Annals of Mathematics 160(2):781–793, 2004. https://doi.org/10.4007/annals.2004.160.781
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Achieving High Individual Service Levels Without Safety Stock? Optimal Rationing Policy of Pooled Resources II: The Max-Weighted-Service Policy Is Almost Surely Asymptotically OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that serve several customers from shared capacity, such as a warehouse supplying several retailers, a flexible production line building several products, or an assemble-to-order system, often sign contracts that guarantee each customer an individual service level. Typical targets are the probability of filling a customer's whole demand (Type-I), the expected fraction of demand filled (Type-II or Type-III), each required to be at least a target βj\beta_jβj​. Once demand is realized, the firm must decide how to ration the pooled resources among customers. Jiang, Wang and Zhang (SSRN 3385089, published in Operations Research, doi:10.1287/opre.2022.2386) ask how much capacity suffices and which rationing policy meets all targets at least cost. The exact optimal policy is an infinite-dimensional program over randomized policies, (11). This mission formalizes the paper's answer to the second question: a simple, learnable policy is asymptotically optimal.

Setting

There are nnn customers N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} and mmm resources. The capacity vector c∈R≥0mc\in\mathbb R^m_{\ge0}c∈R≥0m​ is fixed. The demand D~∈R≥0n\tilde D\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0}D~∈R≥0n​ is random with law FFF. After observing a demand vector DDD, the firm chooses a solution (s,y)(s,y)(s,y) from a compact set P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D). Here sj≤Djs_j\le D_jsj​≤Dj​ is the demand of customer jjj that is fulfilled and yijy_{ij}yij​ is the amount of resource iii given to customer jjj. The solution costs f(y)f(y)f(y), with fff linear, and customer jjj receives service Rj(sj,Dj)≥0R_j(s_j,D_j)\ge0Rj​(sj​,Dj​)≥0.

  • A deterministic policy φ\varphiφ maps each demand vector to a feasible solution (s(φ,c,D),y(φ,c,D))(s(\varphi,c,D),y(\varphi,c,D))(s(φ,c,D),y(φ,c,D)). A randomized policy λ\lambdaλ picks a deterministic policy at random.
  • The service level of customer jjj under λ\lambdaλ is ∫ED~[Rj(sj(φ,c,D~),D~j)] dλ(φ)\int E_{\tilde D}[R_j(s_j(\varphi,c,\tilde D),\tilde D_j)]\,d\lambda(\varphi)∫ED~​[Rj​(sj​(φ,c,D~),D~j​)]dλ(φ), and the expected cost is ∫ED~[f(y(φ,c,D~))] dλ(φ)\int E_{\tilde D}[f(y(\varphi,c,\tilde D))]\,d\lambda(\varphi)∫ED~​[f(y(φ,c,D~))]dλ(φ).
  • The capacity ccc is feasible if some λ\lambdaλ meets every target βj∈(0,1)\beta_j\in(0,1)βj​∈(0,1). Obj(11)\mathrm{Obj}(11)Obj(11) is the least expected cost among such λ\lambdaλ.
  • For weights w∈R≥0nw\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0}w∈R≥0n​, the Max-Weighted-Service problem (16) is min⁡(y,s)∈P(c,D)f(y)−∑jwjRj(sj,Dj)\min_{(y,s)\in P(c,D)} f(y)-\sum_j w_jR_j(s_j,D_j)min(y,s)∈P(c,D)​f(y)−∑j​wj​Rj​(sj​,Dj​). The policy φw\varphi_wφw​ picks one of its optimal solutions for every DDD.
  • Algorithm 1 draws independent samples D(1),…,D(T)D^{(1)},\dots,D^{(T)}D(1),…,D(T) from FFF. It starts from w(1)=0w^{(1)}=0w(1)=0 and updates the weights by
wj(t+1)=[wj(t)+γT(βj−Rj(sj(φw(t),c,D(t)),Dj(t)))]+,γT=T−(1/2+ϵ).w^{(t+1)}_j=\Big[w^{(t)}_j+\gamma_T\big(\beta_j-R_j(s_j(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,D^{(t)}),D^{(t)}_j)\big)\Big]^+,\qquad \gamma_T=T^{-(1/2+\epsilon)}.wj(t+1)​=[wj(t)​+γT​(βj​−Rj​(sj​(φw(t)​,c,D(t)),Dj(t)​))]+,γT​=T−(1/2+ϵ).

It then adopts φw\varphi_wφw​ at a uniformly drawn iterate www.

The Lean development uses the same letters: detService, detCost, IsFeasible, obj11, mwsObjective, mwsIter, stepSize, G, Gstar, Lterm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 17)

Under Assumptions 1 and 3, if ccc is feasible and ϵ∈(0,1/2)\epsilon\in(0,1/2)ϵ∈(0,1/2), then almost surely

lim sup⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TED~t[f(y(φw(t),c,D~t))]≤Obj(11),lim inf⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TED~t[Rj(sj(φw(t),c,D~t),D~jt)]≥βj  ∀j.\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^TE_{\tilde D^t}\big[f(y(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,\tilde D^t))\big]\le\mathrm{Obj}(11),\qquad \liminf_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^TE_{\tilde D^t}\big[R_j(s_j(\varphi_{w^{(t)}},c,\tilde D^t),\tilde D^t_j)\big]\ge\beta_j\ \ \forall j.T→∞limsup​T1​t=1∑T​ED~t​[f(y(φw(t)​,c,D~t))]≤Obj(11),T→∞liminf​T1​t=1∑T​ED~t​[Rj​(sj​(φw(t)​,c,D~t),D~jt​)]≥βj​  ∀j.

Here D~t\tilde D^tD~t is a fresh copy of the demand, so each expectation is taken with the iterate fixed. The statement holds for every tie-breaking rule in (16).

Milestones (pp. 52–54)

  1. Weak duality: ∑jwjβj+E[f(y(φw))]−∑jwjE[Rj(sj(φw),D~j)]≤Obj(11)\sum_jw_j\beta_j+E[f(y(\varphi_w))]-\sum_jw_jE[R_j(s_j(\varphi_w),\tilde D_j)]\le\mathrm{Obj}(11)∑j​wj​βj​+E[f(y(φw​))]−∑j​wj​E[Rj​(sj​(φw​),D~j​)]≤Obj(11) for every w≥0w\ge0w≥0.
  2. Lemma 4 (Azuma's inequality) and Lemma 5 (Borel–Cantelli), both already proved on the platform and referenced.
  3. (57): a pathwise regret bound for the iterates against G(w∗)=sup⁡w≥0G(w)G(w^*)=\sup_{w\ge0}G(w)G(w∗)=supw≥0​G(w).
  4. The noise vanishes: γT∑t≤TLt→0\gamma_T\sum_{t\le T}L_t\to0γT​∑t≤T​Lt​→0 almost surely, for the martingale terms LtL_tLt​ of (55).
  5. Lemma 6: wj(T+1)/(TγT)→0w^{(T+1)}_j/(T\gamma_T)\to0wj(T+1)​/(TγT​)→0 almost surely.

Significance

Theorem 3 replaces an optimization over probability measures on a space of functions by a sequence of finite-dimensional problems (16) and a one-line dual update. Problem (16) is often solved greedily: under a polymatroid structure the paper's Theorem 4 turns it into an index rule. The result therefore justifies a practical rationing heuristic with a guarantee: a firm that runs Algorithm 1 on historical demand gets a policy whose average cost is asymptotically no worse than the optimum of (11), and whose service levels asymptotically meet every individual target.

On the formal side, the statement and its milestones combine a projected stochastic subgradient method, a triangular array of bounded martingale differences, and the weak duality of a semi-infinite program. The paper proves the result; none of it has been machine-checked. A formal proof must also repair the paper's argument for (28): the stochastic-dominance induction on p. 54 does not establish an almost-sure limit.

Difficulty

The obvious argument treats the iterates as a standard online gradient method with a fixed step. That handles the expected regret but not the almost-sure claim. The noise terms LtL_tLt​ depend on the horizon TTT, both through γT\gamma_TγT​ and through every earlier iterate, so they form a triangular array, not a single martingale. Classical stochastic-approximation theorems with decreasing steps do not apply. Feasibility of ccc enters only through the dual bound G(w∗)≤Obj(11)G(w^*)\le\mathrm{Obj}(11)G(w∗)≤Obj(11). The expectations ED~tE_{\tilde D^t}ED~t​ are over a fresh copy with the random iterate held fixed, and that must be kept separate from the sample D(t)D^{(t)}D(t) the iterate itself uses. The service half (28) needs a bound on the growth of the dual weights (Lemma 6), and that bound itself needs the cost to be bounded on feasible allocations.

Formalization scope

  • Indices are 0-based: customers and resources are Fin n and Fin m. The Lean iterate at index ttt is the page's w(t+1)w^{(t+1)}w(t+1), and ∑t=1T\sum_{t=1}^T∑t=1T​ becomes a sum over 0,…,T−10,\dots,T-10,…,T−1.
  • Randomized policies are finite mixtures of measurable deterministic policies. Every quantity here depends on a mixture only through finitely many expectations, so this is no restriction.
  • Selections: the theorems quantify over every selection w↦φww\mapsto\varphi_ww↦φw​ of optimal solutions of (16). It is assumed jointly measurable in (w,D)(w,D)(w,D), so that the iterates are random variables.
  • Sampling: all horizons TTT read the first TTT entries of one i.i.d. sequence. That single probability space is what "almost surely as T→∞T\to\inftyT→∞" requires.
  • Limits: lim sup⁡≤\limsup\lelimsup≤ and lim inf⁡≥\liminf\geliminf≥ are written as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually in TTT".
  • Norms: the Euclidean norm in (57) is a written-out sum of squares, because Lean's default norm on Fin n → ℝ is the sup norm.
  • Added hypotheses, beyond Assumptions 1 and 3 and the standing assumptions of §1.1:
    • Rj≥0R_j\ge0Rj​≥0 and jointly measurable;
    • s≤Ds\le Ds≤D on P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D) for D≥0D\ge0D≥0; instances whose page-level P(c,D)P(c,D)P(c,D) is empty for negative DDD extend it by P(c,D+)P(c,D^+)P(c,D+);
    • ∣f∣≤K|f|\le K∣f∣≤K on feasible allocations, which the paper's proof of Lemma 6 uses implicitly.

Two formalizations would make (27) trivial, and both are ruled out. Obj(11)\mathrm{Obj}(11)Obj(11) is the infimum of the cost over feasible mixtures; it is neither defined from the algorithm nor identified with G(w∗)G(w^*)G(w∗). Feasibility and ∣f∣≤K|f|\le K∣f∣≤K keep that infimum from being Lean's junk value 000. The selection depends on www alone, not on β\betaβ or on the sample path.

The development needs Bochner integrals, independence (iIndepFun), conditional expectation and the referenced Azuma and Borel–Cantelli results. The triangular-array strong law for bounded martingale differences with summable exponential tails is reusable beyond this mission. Contributions toward any milestone, or a repaired proof of (28), are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Jiang, S. Wang, J. Zhang, Achieving High Individual Service-Levels without Safety Stock? Optimal Rationing Policy of Pooled Resources, SSRN 3385089 (version of 31 July 2021); Operations Research (2023). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3385089, https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2386
  • K. Azuma, Weighted sums of certain dependent random variables, Tôhoku Mathematical Journal 19 (1967) 357–367. https://doi.org/10.2748/tmj/1178243286
  • A. Shapiro, On duality theory of conic linear problems, in Semi-Infinite Programming, Kluwer (2001) 135–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3403-4_7
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19 (2009) 1574–1609. https://doi.org/10.1137/070704277
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Markov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Lightning Network Economics: Channels IV: The Long-Run Number of Channel Transactions per On-Chain Transaction in Closed FormResearch Paper

Payment channels and blockchain congestion

A blockchain such as Bitcoin settles a limited number of transactions per unit of time, and every on-chain transaction pays a fee that rises with congestion. The Lightning Network moves payments off the chain. Two parties lock funds in a payment channel with one on-chain transaction, and they can then pay each other any number of times by updating the channel balance privately. A new on-chain transaction is needed only when one side of the channel runs out of funds and the channel must be reset.

Guasoni, Huberman and Shikhelman (Management Science, 2023) model a channel between two nodes that pay each other at Poisson rates. They compute its cost and its optimal size, and in §3.3 they quantify how much a channel relieves the chain. The relief is the long-run number of channel transactions carried per on-chain transaction (Proposition 2). A related quantity is the probability that the payee side of the channel, not the payer side, is exhausted first (Proposition 1). This mission formalizes both results, which are statements about two finite random walks.

Setting

Node 1 commits l1≥1l_1\ge1l1​≥1 units to the channel and node 2 commits l2≥1l_2\ge1l2​≥1 units. Node 1 pays node 2 one unit at the jumps of a Poisson process with rate λ1\lambda_1λ1​, and node 2 pays node 1 at rate λ2\lambda_2λ2​, independently. Write q=λ2/λ1q=\lambda_2/\lambda_1q=λ2​/λ1​. The balance XXX starts at 000. It moves up by one when node 2 pays and down by one when node 1 pays. Node 2 has exhausted its side when X=l2X=l_2X=l2​, and node 1 when X=−l1X=-l_1X=−l1​.

Only the sequence of payments matters here, not their timing or discounting. Observed at its jumps, the balance is a random walk that steps up with probability p=λ2/(λ1+λ2)p=\lambda_2/(\lambda_1+\lambda_2)p=λ2​/(λ1​+λ2​) and down with probability 1−p=λ1/(λ1+λ2)1-p=\lambda_1/(\lambda_1+\lambda_2)1−p=λ1​/(λ1​+λ2​). Two versions of this walk appear.

  1. The absorbed walk on {−l1,…,l2}\{-l_1,\dots,l_2\}{−l1​,…,l2​} stops at −l1-l_1−l1​ and at l2l_2l2​. Write P0{τl2<τ−l1}\mathbb P_0\{\tau_{l_2}<\tau_{-l_1}\}P0​{τl2​​<τ−l1​​} for the probability that, from the balance 000, it reaches l2l_2l2​ before −l1-l_1−l1​.
  2. The reset walk returns the balance to 000 as soon as it reaches l2l_2l2​ or −l1-l_1−l1​, which models an on-chain reset of the channel. It lives on the interior balances {−l1+1,…,l2−1}\{-l_1+1,\dots,l_2-1\}{−l1​+1,…,l2​−1}. For a stationary distribution mmm of this walk, m(n)m(n)m(n) is the long-run fraction of transactions the balance spends at nnn, with m(l2)=m(−l1)=0m(l_2)=m(-l_1)=0m(l2​)=m(−l1​)=0.

The transactions that trigger an on-chain reset are the up-moves from l2−1l_2-1l2​−1 and the down-moves from −l1+1-l_1+1−l1​+1. Their stationary fraction is

f(m)=m(l2−1) λ2λ1+λ2+m(−l1+1) λ1λ1+λ2,f(m)=m(l_2-1)\,\frac{\lambda_2}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2}+m(-l_1+1)\,\frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2},f(m)=m(l2​−1)λ1​+λ2​λ2​​+m(−l1​+1)λ1​+λ2​λ1​​,

and the long-term ratio of channel to on-chain transactions is 1/f(m)1/f(m)1/f(m).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (Congestion Reduction)

For λ1,λ2>0\lambda_1,\lambda_2>0λ1​,λ2​>0 with λ1≠λ2\lambda_1\neq\lambda_2λ1​=λ2​ and l1,l2≥1l_1,l_2\ge1l1​,l2​≥1, the reset walk has a stationary distribution, and every stationary distribution mmm satisfies

1f(m)=(q+1)((l2(ql1−1)−l1)ql2+l1)(q−1)(ql1+l2−1).\frac1{f(m)}=\frac{(q+1)\Bigl(\bigl(l_2(q^{l_1}-1)-l_1\bigr)q^{l_2}+l_1\Bigr)}{(q-1)(q^{l_1+l_2}-1)}.f(m)1​=(q−1)(ql1​+l2​−1)(q+1)((l2​(ql1​−1)−l1​)ql2​+l1​)​.

Milestones

  • (28) and (29): m(n)=m(0) ql2−qnql2−1m(n)=m(0)\,\dfrac{q^{l_2}-q^n}{q^{l_2}-1}m(n)=m(0)ql2​−1ql2​−qn​ for 0≤n≤l20\le n\le l_20≤n≤l2​, and m(n)=m(0) ql1+n−1ql1−1m(n)=m(0)\,\dfrac{q^{l_1+n}-1}{q^{l_1}-1}m(n)=m(0)ql1​−1ql1​+n−1​ for −l1≤n≤0-l_1\le n\le0−l1​≤n≤0.
  • (30): m(0)=(ql1−1)(ql2−1)(l2(ql1−1)−l1)ql2+l1m(0)=\dfrac{(q^{l_1}-1)(q^{l_2}-1)}{\bigl(l_2(q^{l_1}-1)-l_1\bigr)q^{l_2}+l_1}m(0)=(l2​(ql1​−1)−l1​)ql2​+l1​(ql1​−1)(ql2​−1)​.
  • The on-chain fraction f(m)f(m)f(m) is the reciprocal of the goal's closed form.
  • Proposition 2 (i)–(ii): the closed form tends to l1l_1l1​ as q↓0q\downarrow0q↓0 and to l1l2l_1l_2l1​l2​ as q→1q\to1q→1.
  • Proposition 1 (i)(a),(c): P0{τl2<τ−l1}=1−q−l11−q−l1−l2\mathbb P_0\{\tau_{l_2}<\tau_{-l_1}\}=\dfrac{1-q^{-l_1}}{1-q^{-l_1-l_2}}P0​{τl2​​<τ−l1​​}=1−q−l1​−l2​1−q−l1​​ if λ2>λ1>0\lambda_2>\lambda_1>0λ2​>λ1​>0, and =1=1=1 if λ2>λ1=0\lambda_2>\lambda_1=0λ2​>λ1​=0.
  • Proposition 1 (i)(b), corrected: for λ1=λ2>0\lambda_1=\lambda_2>0λ1​=λ2​>0 the probability is l1/(l1+l2)l_1/(l_1+l_2)l1​/(l1​+l2​), which is the published gambler's ruin theorem.

Significance

Proposition 2 measures how much a channel relieves the chain. A unidirectional channel of size l1l_1l1​ carries l1l_1l1​ payments per on-chain transaction. A symmetric bidirectional channel carries l1l2l_1l_2l1​l2​, which grows with the product of the two sizes rather than their sum. For a fixed total commitment, the relief is therefore largest when the flows are balanced. This is the paper's quantitative case that bidirectional channels reduce congestion far more than one-way ones. The probabilities of Proposition 1 tell each node how likely it is to be the one whose funds run out.

Both results are proved in the paper by elementary difference-equation arguments. Neither has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them gives a verified closed form for the stationary law of a biased walk with resets at both ends. It also gives a biased gambler's-ruin probability on top of the platform's Markov chain library, which so far has only the fair case. The formalization also corrects case (b) of Proposition 1, which as printed claims 1/21/21/2 for every l1,l2l_1,l_2l1​,l2​; the paper's own proof gives l1/(l1+l2)l_1/(l_1+l_2)l1​/(l1​+l2​).

Difficulty

The reset walk is not a birth–death chain: the balance 000 receives the reset flow from both ends, so the walk is in general not reversible, and the detailed-balance shortcut that gives the stationary law of a reflected walk in one line fails. The balance equation (27) holds only away from 000 and from the two reset points. In Lean, the abstract equation mP=mmP=mmP=m on Fin (l₁ + l₂ - 1) must be related to recurrences indexed by integer balances, and the edge cases l1=1l_1=1l1​=1 and l2=1l_2=1l2​=1, where the bottom or top balance is 000 itself, have to be handled. For Proposition 1, the hitting probability is defined as an infinite series of first-passage probabilities over trajectories, and the closed form is a statement about the value of that series.

Formalization scope

  • The walks are transition matrices in the platform's MarkovMixing vocabulary (mm_basic, mm_path). Stationarity is MarkovMixing.IsStationary (nonnegative, sums to one, mP=mmP=mmP=m), and hitting probabilities are MarkovMixing.hitBeforeProb, a series that sums to 000 when it is not summable. The absorbed walk is absorbed almost surely, so this convention is never triggered.
  • The absorbed walk has states Fin (l₁ + l₂ + 1), with index iii for the balance i−l1i-l_1i−l1​. The reset walk has states Fin (l₁ + l₂ - 1), with index jjj for the balance j+1−l1j+1-l_1j+1−l1​. massAt reads m(n)m(n)m(n) at an integer balance and returns 000 outside the interior, which is the paper's convention m(l2)=m(−l1)=0m(l_2)=m(-l_1)=0m(l2​)=m(−l1​)=0.
  • Rates are real with λ1,λ2>0\lambda_1,\lambda_2>0λ1​,λ2​>0, and sizes are natural numbers l1,l2≥1l_1,l_2\ge1l1​,l2​≥1.
  • The hypothesis λ1≠λ2\lambda_1\neq\lambda_2λ1​=λ2​ (q≠1q\neq1q=1) is added to Proposition 2 and to (28)–(30). The formulas divide by q−1q-1q−1, and the paper treats q=1q=1q=1 only as a limit.
  • The "long-term ratio" is read as 1/f(m)1/f(m)1/f(m) for a stationary mmm, as in the paper's proof. Its identification with a pathwise long-run average is an ergodic theorem that the paper does not state and the mission does not ask for.
  • Proposition 2 (i)–(ii) are limits of the closed form along q↓0q\downarrow0q↓0 and q→1q\to1q→1, q≠1q\neq1q=1.
  • The following would trivialize the problem and are excluded: fixing the sizes or the rates, setting λ1=λ2\lambda_1=\lambda_2λ1​=λ2​, defining the long-term ratio or the stationary distribution by the closed form, or quantifying over stationary distributions without proving that one exists.
  • The platform has the Proved results MarkovMixing.exists_stationary_pos and MarkovMixing.stationary_unique for irreducible chains, and the fair gambler's ruin. Lemmas on stationary laws of chains with resets, and biased gambler's-ruin results on the MarkovMixing chains, would be reusable beyond this mission and are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Guasoni, G. Huberman, C. Shikhelman, Lightning Network Economics: Channels, Management Science, Articles in Advance, published online November 6, 2023, pp. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01664
  • J. Poon, T. Dryja, The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments, white paper, 2016. https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf
  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009 (§1.5, §2.1). https://doi.org/10.1090/mbk/058
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Economics·Captain: mikedeng1

Endogenous Multihoming and Network Effects: PlayStation, Xbox, or Both? I: Under Partial Multihoming, Weak Network Effects Raise Each Firm's Demand, Price and ProfitResearch Paper

Motivation

Video-game consoles, streaming services, ride-hailing apps and payment systems are sold in markets where the value of a product grows with the number of people who use it. In the classical analysis of such markets every consumer buys exactly one of the competing products (singlehoming). Under that assumption, a stronger network effect intensifies price competition in Hotelling models of incompatible products, so equilibrium prices fall (Farrell and Saloner, 1992; Shy, 2001); Katz and Shapiro (1985) find the same under Cournot competition. In practice many consumers own both a PlayStation and an Xbox, or subscribe to several streaming services (multihoming).

Foros, Kind and Stähler (Management Science, 2025; SNF Working Paper 16/21, 2021) let consumers choose endogenously whether to buy one good or both. Their Proposition 1 shows that the classical conclusion reverses once some consumers multihome: near the point without network effects, a stronger network effect raises each firm's demand, price and profit, even when the firms differ in size. This mission formalizes that proposition together with the computations on which the paper rests it.

Setting

Two firms i∈{0,1}i\in\{0,1\}i∈{0,1} are located at the ends of a Hotelling line of unit length, along which a unit mass of consumers is uniformly distributed. A consumer at distance ddd from firm iii pays a mismatch cost tdtdtd, with t>0t>0t>0. Good iii has exclusive features worth eie_iei​ and shared features worth ooo; buying good iii also yields a network benefit μzi\mu z_iμzi​, where μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0 is the strength of the network effect and ziz_izi​ is the expected number of buyers of good iii. Throughout, μ<t\mu<tμ<t (Assumption 1 (i) of the paper), and jjj denotes the rival of iii.

When some consumers buy both goods and expectations are fulfilled (zi=xiz_i=x_izi​=xi​), the paper derives the demand for good iii at prices (pi,pj)(p_i,p_j)(pi​,pj​):

xiM(pi,pj)=μt+μ+t ei−pit2−μ2−μ ej−pjt2−μ2.(14)x_i^M(p_i,p_j)=\frac{\mu}{t+\mu}+t\,\frac{e_i-p_i}{t^2-\mu^2}-\mu\,\frac{e_j-p_j}{t^2-\mu^2}. \qquad (14)xiM​(pi​,pj​)=t+μμ​+tt2−μ2ei​−pi​​−μt2−μ2ej​−pj​​.(14)

Maximizing the profit pixiM(pi,pj)p_i x_i^M(p_i,p_j)pi​xiM​(pi​,pj​) (marginal costs are zero) gives the reaction function

piM(pj)=tμ−μ2+tei2t+μ pj−ej2t,(15)p_i^M(p_j)=\frac{t\mu-\mu^2+te_i}{2t}+\mu\,\frac{p_j-e_j}{2t}, \qquad (15)piM​(pj​)=2ttμ−μ2+tei​​+μ2tpj​−ej​​,(15)

and solving the two reaction functions gives the candidate prices

piM=t−μ2t−μ(μ+ei)+μt4t2−μ2(ei−ej).(16)p_i^M=\frac{t-\mu}{2t-\mu}(\mu+e_i)+\frac{\mu t}{4t^2-\mu^2}(e_i-e_j). \qquad (16)piM​=2t−μt−μ​(μ+ei​)+4t2−μ2μt​(ei​−ej​).(16)

At these prices the output of good iii is xi=xiM(piM,pjM)x_i=x_i^M(p_i^M,p_j^M)xi​=xiM​(piM​,pjM​), the number of singlehomers of good iii (consumers who buy only iii) is si=1−xjs_i=1-x_jsi​=1−xj​, the number of multihomers is m=1−s0−s1m=1-s_0-s_1m=1−s0​−s1​, and firm iii's profit is πi=piMxi\pi_i=p_i^Mx_iπi​=piM​xi​. All of these are functions of μ\muμ for fixed t,e0,e1t,e_0,e_1t,e0​,e1​. In Lean they are demandM, reactM, priceM, outM, singleM, multiM and profitM in the namespace Multihoming.Local, each taking its parameters in the order (t,μ,ei,ej)(t,\mu,e_i,e_j)(t,μ,ei​,ej​).

Partial multihoming means that some consumers buy both goods and some buy only one of each: m>0m>0m>0, s0>0s_0>0s0​>0, s1>0s_1>0s1​>0. At μ=0\mu=0μ=0 this is exactly e0<2te_0<2te0​<2t, e1<2te_1<2te1​<2t and 2t<e0+e12t<e_0+e_12t<e0​+e1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

Assume t>0t>0t>0 and e0<2te_0<2te0​<2t, e1<2te_1<2te1​<2t, 2t<e0+e12t<e_0+e_12t<e0​+e1​. Then there is δ∈(0,t)\delta\in(0,t)δ∈(0,t) such that, for each i∈{0,1}i\in\{0,1\}i∈{0,1},

xi, piM, πi are strictly increasing and si is strictly decreasing in μ on [0,δ].x_i,\ p_i^M,\ \pi_i \text{ are strictly increasing and } s_i \text{ is strictly decreasing in } \mu \text{ on } [0,\delta].xi​, piM​, πi​ are strictly increasing and si​ is strictly decreasing in μ on [0,δ].

The goal fixes no constant and no size of the neighbourhood: it asserts the direction of every effect near μ=0\mu=0μ=0, for asymmetric firms.

Milestones

  1. (15) The reaction function maximizes p xiM(p,pj)p\,x_i^M(p,p_j)pxiM​(p,pj​) over all real ppp, for 0≤μ<t0\le\mu<t0≤μ<t.
  2. (16) The candidate prices solve the two reaction functions simultaneously.
  3. (19)–(20) Closed forms of sis_isi​, mmm and xix_ixi​ at the candidate prices.
  4. (22) ∂m∂μ∣μ=0=(2t−e0)+(2t−e1)4t2>0\dfrac{\partial m}{\partial\mu}\Big|_{\mu=0}=\dfrac{(2t-e_0)+(2t-e_1)}{4t^2}>0∂μ∂m​​μ=0​=4t2(2t−e0​)+(2t−e1​)​>0 and ∂si∂μ∣μ=0=−2t−ei4t2<0\dfrac{\partial s_i}{\partial\mu}\Big|_{\mu=0}=-\dfrac{2t-e_i}{4t^2}<0∂μ∂si​​​μ=0​=−4t22t−ei​​<0.
  5. Footnote 15 dπidμ∣μ=0=(2t−ej)ei4t2>0\dfrac{d\pi_i}{d\mu}\Big|_{\mu=0}=\dfrac{(2t-e_j)e_i}{4t^2}>0dμdπi​​​μ=0​=4t2(2t−ej​)ei​​>0.

Significance

The result separates two regimes that the classical theory does not distinguish. Under singlehoming, network effects are a force for competition and lower prices; under partial multihoming, a small network effect makes prices strategic complements (each firm's reaction function slopes upward in the rival's price) and raises the prices, outputs and profits of both firms. This is the paper's explanation for why firms facing multihoming consumers may welcome network effects, and it is the starting point of the paper's later analysis of symmetric firms, of the thresholds on exclusive content, and of mergers.

The proposition is proved in the paper by a short computation: differentiating closed forms at μ=0\mu=0μ=0. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formal proof would confirm the closed forms (16), (19), (20), the derivative signs (22) and footnote 15, and would upgrade the paper's derivative-at-a-point argument to monotonicity on an explicit interval. The formalization also records a printed slip: the second constant of (22) is printed as 2t22t^22t2, while the value implied by (16) and (17) is 4t24t^24t2. The sign, and so Proposition 1, is unaffected.

Difficulty

Each identity is a rational-function computation with up to quartic denominators, which is tedious but routine once the denominators are known to be nonzero. The substantive step is from a derivative at one point to monotonicity on an interval. The paper computes one-sided derivatives at μ=0\mu=0μ=0. To conclude strict monotonicity on [0,δ][0,\delta][0,δ], one needs the derivatives to keep their sign on a neighbourhood, which requires continuity of the derivative of each of eight functions (four quantities for each of two firms) and a common δ\deltaδ. The price claim has no printed derivative at all. A further subtlety is that the profit derivative at 000 is positive only because ei>0e_i>0ei​>0, which is not a hypothesis but follows from ei>2t−ej>0e_i>2t-e_j>0ei​>2t−ej​>0.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. All parameters are real numbers. The overlapping features ooo cancel from every object and are not a parameter. The model's demand is (14) with fulfilled expectations, taken as given: its derivation from the consumer's choice problem (10)–(13), the single-homing regime and the full pricing game (regime switching, deviations) are not formalized. The prices are those of (16), the profit is piMxip_i^M x_ipiM​xi​ as in (5) with zero marginal costs, and milestones (15)–(16) tie the prices to profit maximization.
  • Standing assumptions. t>0t>0t>0; 0≤μ<t0\le\mu<t0≤μ<t (the model's μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0 and Assumption 1 (i)). Assumption 1 (ii)–(iii), which concern market coverage and positive shares in the full game, are not used and not assumed. Milestones 4–5 need only t>0t>0t>0: their functions are smooth near μ=0\mu=0μ=0, and the derivatives are two-sided.
  • Pinned hypotheses. "Assume partial multihoming" is the three inequalities e0<2te_0<2te0​<2t, e1<2te_1<2te1​<2t, 2t<e0+e12t<e_0+e_12t<e0​+e1​. The paper's text names only one condition 2t−ei>02t-e_i>02t−ei​>0; both firms' conditions are needed. "In the neighborhood of μ=0\mu=0μ=0" is strict monotonicity on [0,δ][0,\delta][0,δ] with 0<δ<t0<\delta<t0<δ<t.
  • Trivializations ruled out. The goal is about (14) evaluated at (16), not about the closed form (20); δ>0\delta>0δ>0 excludes a vacuous interval; the statement is monotonicity on an interval, not a derivative sign at one point; and every denominator is positive on the domain, so no claim holds through Lean's convention x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0.
  • Not posed. Proposition 4 of the paper, the characterization of the Nash equilibria, is not posed by this series because it is false as printed (a profitable deviation exists at some parameters the proposition covers). Expression (21), which mixes partial derivatives at fixed and at equilibrium prices, is not posed either.
  • Infrastructure. Only Mathlib's real analysis is needed (HasDerivAt, StrictMonoOn). Lemmas turning a positive continuous derivative on an interval into strict monotonicity are reusable. Proofs of the milestones and of the goal are welcome, as are proofs that derive the goal from the milestones.

Selected references

  • Ø. Foros, H. J. Kind and F. Stähler, Endogenous multihoming and network effects: PlayStation, Xbox, or both?, Management Science, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00613 (read from SNF Working Paper No. 16/21, NHH Bergen, December 2021).
  • J. Farrell and G. Saloner, Converters, compatibility, and the control of interfaces, Journal of Industrial Economics 40(1), 1992. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950625
  • O. Shy, The Economics of Network Industries, Cambridge University Press, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754401
  • M. L. Katz and C. Shapiro, Network externalities, competition, and compatibility, American Economic Review 75(3), 1985. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1814809
  • B.-C. Kim and D. Serfes, A duopoly model with consumers' multiple-purchase behavior, International Journal of Industrial Organization 24(6), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2005.10.008
  • S. P. Anderson, Ø. Foros and H. J. Kind, Product functionality, competition, and multipurchasing, International Economic Review 58(1), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12212
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Revenue Sharing at Music Streaming Platforms II: The Core of the Streaming Game Is the Set of Allocations Splitting Each User's Payment Among the Artists That User PlayedResearch Paper

Why streaming revenue is a cooperative-game question

Music streaming platforms collect a subscription fee from each user and have to pass the revenue on to the artists whose content was played. The two rules used in practice are pro-rata (each artist is paid in proportion to their total number of streams, over all users) and user-centric (each user's fee is split among the artists that user played, in proportion to that user's streams). Which rule is fair has been debated by platforms, rights holders and regulators. Bergantiños and Moreno-Ternero (arXiv:2310.11861, Management Science, 2025) study the problem axiomatically, and in their §4 also through cooperative game theory: they associate a transferable-utility game with every streaming problem and ask which revenue allocations no coalition of artists could object to.

This mission formalizes their Theorem 2. It gives an explicit description of the core of that game.

Setting

There are nnn artists N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} and a finite set MMM of users, each of whom pays 111, so m=∣M∣m=|M|m=∣M∣ is to be shared. A streaming problem records the number tij∈Nt_{ij}\in\mathbb Ntij​∈N of times user jjj played artist iii. Every user in MMM is assumed to have played at least one artist.

  • The list of user jjj is Lj={i∈N:tij>0}L^j=\{i\in N:t_{ij}>0\}Lj={i∈N:tij​>0}, the artists that user played.
  • The streaming game gives a coalition S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N of artists the fees of the users who played only artists in SSS:
v(S)=∣{j∈M:Lj⊆S}∣.v(S)=\bigl|\{j\in M: L^j\subseteq S\}\bigr|.v(S)=​{j∈M:Lj⊆S}​.

This is a pessimistic estimate of what a group of artists could earn by leaving to found its own platform. Because every list is nonempty, v(∅)=0v(\emptyset)=0v(∅)=0.

  • The core of vvv is the set of payoff vectors x∈RNx\in\mathbb R^Nx∈RN that distribute exactly v(N)=mv(N)=mv(N)=m and give every coalition at least its worth:
C(N,v)={x: ∑i∈Nxi=v(N), ∑i∈Sxi≥v(S) for all S⊆N}.C(N,v)=\Bigl\{x:\ \sum_{i\in N}x_i=v(N),\ \sum_{i\in S}x_i\ge v(S)\ \text{for all } S\subseteq N\Bigr\}.C(N,v)={x: i∈N∑​xi​=v(N), i∈S∑​xi​≥v(S) for all S⊆N}.
  • The allocation set A(N,M,t)A(N,M,t)A(N,M,t) consists of the vectors x=∑j∈Mxjx=\sum_{j\in M}x^jx=∑j∈M​xj, where each xj∈RNx^j\in\mathbb R^Nxj∈RN is nonnegative, vanishes outside LjL^jLj, and sums to 111. Each user's fee is split in any way among the artists that user played, and the shares are added up.

The proof goes through two classical objects of cooperative game theory. The Harsanyi dividends are Δv(R)=∑S⊆R(−1)∣R∣−∣S∣v(S)\Delta_v(R)=\sum_{S\subseteq R}(-1)^{|R|-|S|}v(S)Δv​(R)=∑S⊆R​(−1)∣R∣−∣S∣v(S). A sharing system p=(pR)∅≠R⊆Np=(p^R)_{\emptyset\ne R\subseteq N}p=(pR)∅=R⊆N​ assigns to each nonempty coalition RRR a probability vector pRp^RpR supported on RRR. The Harsanyi set H(N,v)H(N,v)H(N,v) is the set of allocations yip=∑R∋iΔv(R) piRy^p_i=\sum_{R\ni i}\Delta_v(R)\,p^R_iyip​=∑R∋i​Δv​(R)piR​ that a sharing system induces. The unanimity game uRu_RuR​ has uR(S)=1u_R(S)=1uR​(S)=1 if R⊆SR\subseteq SR⊆S and 000 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 14)

C(N,v)=A(N,M,t)for every streaming problem (N,M,t).C(N,v)=A(N,M,t)\qquad\text{for every streaming problem }(N,M,t).C(N,v)=A(N,M,t)for every streaming problem (N,M,t).

Milestones (the proof in the paper's appendix, pp. 22–23)

  1. Harsanyi (1959). For every TU game, v=∑∅≠R⊆NΔv(R) uRv=\sum_{\emptyset\ne R\subseteq N}\Delta_v(R)\,u_Rv=∑∅=R⊆N​Δv​(R)uR​, and these weights are unique.
  2. Vasil'ev (1981). If Δv(R)≥0\Delta_v(R)\ge 0Δv​(R)≥0 for every nonempty RRR, then C(N,v)=H(N,v)C(N,v)=H(N,v)C(N,v)=H(N,v).
  3. The streaming game decomposes as v=∑∅≠R⊆N∣{j∈M:Lj=R}∣ uRv=\sum_{\emptyset\ne R\subseteq N}|\{j\in M:L^j=R\}|\,u_Rv=∑∅=R⊆N​∣{j∈M:Lj=R}∣uR​.
  4. Its dividends are Δv(R)=∣{j∈M:Lj=R}∣≥0\Delta_v(R)=|\{j\in M:L^j=R\}|\ge 0Δv​(R)=∣{j∈M:Lj=R}∣≥0.
  5. H(N,v)⊆A(N,M,t)H(N,v)\subseteq A(N,M,t)H(N,v)⊆A(N,M,t).
  6. A(N,M,t)⊆H(N,v)A(N,M,t)\subseteq H(N,v)A(N,M,t)⊆H(N,v).
  7. Companion (§4, p. 13): vvv is a convex (supermodular) game.

Significance

Theorem 2 says that the core-stable allocations of streaming revenue are exactly those that split each user's fee among the artists that user played. The user-centric rule is such a split, so its rewards always lie in the core. The pro-rata rule can fall outside the core: in the paper's Example 1 a coalition of one artist receives less than the fee of the user who played only that artist. This observation underlies the paper's Theorem 3, where core selection together with homogeneity and additivity characterizes the user-centric index. Beyond streaming, the theorem gives an explicit core for a class of games built from users' lists. The museum-pass games of Ginsburg and Zang have the same structure.

The paper's proof combines two cited classical theorems (Harsanyi's unanimity decomposition and Vasil'ev's identification of core and Harsanyi set for games with nonnegative dividends) with bookkeeping specific to streaming. None of these is formalized on the platform except the bare existence of a unanimity decomposition (Young 1985's exists_unanimity_expansion, Proved, referenced here). The mission therefore produces reusable statements of Harsanyi dividends, the Harsanyi set and Vasil'ev's theorem for arbitrary finite TU games, as well as the streaming result itself.

Difficulty

Most of the mission is finite bookkeeping: Möbius inversion over the subset lattice and regrouping sums by users' lists. The central difficulty is the inclusion C(N,v)⊆H(N,v)C(N,v)\subseteq H(N,v)C(N,v)⊆H(N,v) in Vasil'ev's theorem. One has to show that every core vector can be generated by splitting each dividend among the members of its coalition. This is a feasibility statement for a transportation problem whose supplies are the dividends and whose demands are the core payoffs, with each coalition allowed to ship only to its own members. The core inequalities have to be turned into such a shipment plan, and neither of the obvious candidates does that. Splitting each dividend equally among a coalition's members gives the Shapley value, a single point. Taking extreme points of the core gives the marginal vectors, and writing an arbitrary core point through them is the same feasibility question again. The paper cites the result without proof.

Formalization scope

  • Artists and users. Artists are Fin n, numbered from 000. Users are named by natural numbers. A problem is a finitely supported map t : ℕ →₀ (Fin n → ℕ) with t j i =tij=t_{ij}=tij​; the user set MMM is its support. Every user in MMM therefore has a nonempty list, which is the paper's standing assumption Lj≠∅L^j\ne\emptysetLj=∅ (recalled on p. 19). Streams are natural numbers. The empty problem is allowed; there both sides of Theorem 2 are {0}\{0\}{0}.
  • Inclusions. The paper's ⊂\subset⊂ is read as ⊆\subseteq⊆ throughout: R=NR=NR=N is a coalition, and S=∅S=\emptysetS=∅ and S=NS=NS=N are core constraints.
  • Vectors. Payoff vectors are Fin n → ℝ. The core is the published Supermodularity.Cooperative.Core Finset.univ. Convexity is the published Supermodularity.Cooperative.IsConvexGame. The unanimity game is the published MonotonicSolutions.StrongMono.unanimity.
  • Dividends. The paper defines the dividends implicitly, as the unique weights of the unanimity decomposition. The formalization uses the explicit formula Δv(R)=∑S⊆R(−1)∣R∣−∣S∣v(S)\Delta_v(R)=\sum_{S\subseteq R}(-1)^{|R|-|S|}v(S)Δv​(R)=∑S⊆R​(−1)∣R∣−∣S∣v(S), and milestone 1 states that it gives those unique weights. A sharing system is a function on all coalitions whose value at ∅\emptyset∅ is never read.
  • No trivialization. The allocation set is the set of sums of user-indexed probability vectors supported on the users' lists. It is not the larger set "x≥0x\ge 0x≥0, ∑ixi=m\sum_i x_i=m∑i​xi​=m", which would make Theorem 2 false. Theorem 2 is stated directly as a set equality between the core and the allocation set, not through the Harsanyi set. Vasil'ev's theorem is stated for every TU game with nonnegative dividends, as cited.
  • Reusable parts. The Harsanyi dividend, sharing systems, the Harsanyi set, Harsanyi's uniqueness theorem and Vasil'ev's theorem apply to any finite TU game. Proofs of these, especially of Vasil'ev's inclusion C⊆HC\subseteq HC⊆H, are the most valuable contributions. The streaming steps (milestones 3 to 6) are welcome as independent footholds.
  • The same streaming objects are restated in the sibling missions Revenue Sharing at Music Streaming Platforms I and III.

Selected references

  • G. Bergantiños, J. D. Moreno-Ternero, Revenue sharing at music streaming platforms, Management Science, 2025; preprint arXiv:2310.11861v1, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.11861
  • J. C. Harsanyi, A bargaining model for the cooperative n-person game, in Contributions to the Theory of Games IV, Annals of Mathematics Studies 40, Princeton University Press, 1959.
  • V. A. Vasil'ev, On a class of imputations in cooperative games, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 23 (1981), 53–57.
  • R. van den Brink, G. van der Laan, V. Vasil'ev, Constrained core solutions for totally positive games with ordered players, International Journal of Game Theory, 2014 (the presentation of the Harsanyi set the paper follows, footnote 22).
  • H. P. Young, Monotonic solutions of cooperative games, International Journal of Game Theory 14 (1985), 65–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01769885
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Bandit AlgorithmsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues 3: In Heavy Traffic Every α-Consistent Scheduling Policy Has Average Queue-Regret at Least D(μ)(K−1) log t / (4 log log t) Up to Time (K−1)D(μ)/(4ε)Research Paper

Motivation

A switch network is a set of UUU queues served by K≥UK\ge UK≥U servers. In every time slot each server can serve at most one queue, so a scheduler must pick a matching of queues to servers. Such systems model input-queued packet switches, crowdsourcing platforms that route job types to worker types, and wireless links with unknown channel quality. When the success probability of each queue–server link is unknown, the scheduler has to learn it from the services it observes while the queues are building up. This makes switch scheduling a multi-armed bandit problem in which the cost is not cumulative reward but queue length.

Krishnasamy, Sen, Johari and Shakkottai (arXiv:1604.06377, Operations Research 2021) measure a scheduler by its queue-regret: the expected difference between its queue lengths and those of a genie that knows the best matching. They show that the queue-regret has two regimes. In the late stage, once the queues regularly empty, it decays like 1/t1/t1/t (their Theorem 3, the subject of a sibling mission). In the early stage it grows like log⁡t/log⁡log⁡t\log t/\log\log tlogt/loglogt, as the regret of a classical bandit does, and the system is then effectively unstable. This mission is about the early stage, made precise in the paper's Theorem 8: in heavy traffic, where the arrival rates are close to the best service rates, every reasonable policy pays logarithmic queue-regret for a long time.

The lower-bound technique descends from Lai and Robbins (1985): a policy that does well on every instance must explore each sub-optimal link about log⁡t/KL\log t/\mathrm{KL}logt/KL times, a count obtained by a change of measure and the Bretagnolle–Huber inequality.

Setting

Queues are indexed by u∈[U]u\in[U]u∈[U] and servers by k∈[K]k\in[K]k∈[K]. In every slot t≥1t\ge1t≥1, queue uuu receives an arrival Au(t)∼Bernoulli(λu)A_u(t)\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\lambda_u)Au​(t)∼Bernoulli(λu​), and link (u,k)(u,k)(u,k) offers a service Ruk(t)∼Bernoulli(μuk)R_{uk}(t)\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\mu_{uk})Ruk​(t)∼Bernoulli(μuk​). All of these are independent and i.i.d. over slots. Notation:

  • μu∗=max⁡kμuk\mu^*_u=\max_k\mu_{uk}μu∗​=maxk​μuk​, attained at ku∗k^*_uku∗​;
  • ϵu=μu∗−λu\epsilon_u=\mu^*_u-\lambda_uϵu​=μu∗​−λu​ and Δuk=μu∗−μuk\Delta_{uk}=\mu^*_u-\mu_{uk}Δuk​=μu∗​−μuk​;
  • Δ=min⁡u,k≠ku∗Δuk\Delta=\min_{u,k\ne k^*_u}\Delta_{uk}Δ=minu,k=ku∗​​Δuk​, μmin⁡=min⁡μuk\mu_{\min}=\min\mu_{uk}μmin​=minμuk​ and μ∗=max⁡μuk\mu^*=\max\mu_{uk}μ∗=maxμuk​;
  • ϵˉ=1U∑uϵu\bar\epsilon=\frac1U\sum_u\epsilon_uϵˉ=U1​∑u​ϵu​.

Assumption 1 asks that every queue have a unique best server and that the best servers of distinct queues be distinct. Assumption 2 is ϵu>0\epsilon_u>0ϵu​>0 for every uuu. Assumption 3 draws the initial queue vector from the stationary law of the genie queues.

A scheduler picks a matching κ(t)\kappa(t)κ(t), so queue uuu is served by server κu(t)\kappa_u(t)κu​(t). Its decision may use the past schedules, the services observed on the scheduled links, and private randomness. The queues evolve as Qu(t)=(Qu(t−1)+Au(t)−Ruκu(t)(t))+Q_u(t)=(Q_u(t-1)+A_u(t)-R_{u\kappa_u(t)}(t))^+Qu​(t)=(Qu​(t−1)+Au​(t)−Ruκu​(t)​(t))+. The genie always schedules k∗k^*k∗ and has queues Qu∗(t)Q^*_u(t)Qu∗​(t). The queue-regret is Ψu(t)=E[Qu(t)−Qu∗(t)]\Psi_u(t)=\mathbb E[Q_u(t)-Q^*_u(t)]Ψu​(t)=E[Qu​(t)−Qu∗​(t)]. The schedule counts are Tuk(t+1)=∑s=1t1{κu(s)=k}T_{uk}(t+1)=\sum_{s=1}^t\mathbb 1\{\kappa_u(s)=k\}Tuk​(t+1)=∑s=1t​1{κu​(s)=k}.

A policy is α\alphaα-consistent (α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1)) if on every instance E[Tuk(t+1)]≤C tα\mathbb E[T_{uk}(t+1)]\le C\,t^{\alpha}E[Tuk​(t+1)]≤Ctα for all uuu and all k≠ku∗k\ne k^*_uk=ku∗​, with a constant CCC that may depend on the instance. The key constant is

D(μ)=ΔKL(μmin⁡,μ∗+12),D(\mu)=\frac{\Delta}{\mathrm{KL}\big(\mu_{\min},\frac{\mu^*+1}{2}\big)},D(μ)=KL(μmin​,2μ∗+1​)Δ​,

where KL\mathrm{KL}KL is the Bernoulli Kullback–Leibler divergence.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 18)

Fix μ\muμ, an α\alphaα-consistent policy and γ>1/(1−α)\gamma>1/(1-\alpha)γ>1/(1−α). There exist constants τ\tauτ and C1C_1C1​, the same for every arrival vector λ\lambdaλ, such that, with T0=max⁡{C1Kγ,τ}T_0=\max\{C_1K^\gamma,\tau\}T0​=max{C1​Kγ,τ} and η=(K−1)D(μ)/(2T0)\eta=(K-1)D(\mu)/(2T_0)η=(K−1)D(μ)/(2T0​):

ϵˉ<η2 ⟹ 1U∑uΨu(t)≥D(μ)4(K−1)log⁡tlog⁡log⁡tfor t∈[T0, (K−1)D(μ)4ϵˉ],\bar\epsilon<\tfrac\eta2\ \Longrightarrow\ \frac1U\sum_u\Psi_u(t)\ge\frac{D(\mu)}4(K-1)\frac{\log t}{\log\log t}\quad\text{for } t\in\Big[T_0,\ \tfrac{(K-1)D(\mu)}{4\bar\epsilon}\Big],ϵˉ<2η​ ⟹ U1​u∑​Ψu​(t)≥4D(μ)​(K−1)loglogtlogt​for t∈[T0​, 4ϵˉ(K−1)D(μ)​], ϵu<η ⟹ Ψu(t)≥D(μ)4max⁡{U−1,2(K−U)}log⁡tlog⁡log⁡tfor t∈[T0, (K−1)D(μ)2ϵu].\epsilon_u<\eta\ \Longrightarrow\ \Psi_u(t)\ge\frac{D(\mu)}4\max\{U-1,2(K-U)\}\frac{\log t}{\log\log t}\quad\text{for } t\in\Big[T_0,\ \tfrac{(K-1)D(\mu)}{2\epsilon_u}\Big].ϵu​<η ⟹ Ψu​(t)≥4D(μ)​max{U−1,2(K−U)}loglogtlogt​for t∈[T0​, 2ϵu​(K−1)D(μ)​].

Milestones

  1. Lemma 18 (Bretagnolle–Huber, p. 37), referenced from the platform.
  2. Lemma 19 (p. 37): for t>τt>\taut>τ, E[Tuk(t+1)]+∑u′≠u1{ku′∗=k}E[Tu′ku∗(t+1)]≥(1−α)log⁡t−log⁡(4KC)KL(μmin⁡,(μ∗+1)/2)\mathbb E[T_{uk}(t+1)]+\sum_{u'\ne u}\mathbb 1\{k^*_{u'}=k\}\mathbb E[T_{u'k^*_u}(t+1)]\ge\frac{(1-\alpha)\log t-\log(4KC)}{\mathrm{KL}(\mu_{\min},(\mu^*+1)/2)}E[Tuk​(t+1)]+∑u′=u​1{ku′∗​=k}E[Tu′ku∗​​(t+1)]≥KL(μmin​,(μ∗+1)/2)(1−α)logt−log(4KC)​.
  3. Corollary 20 (p. 39): the summed forms of Lemma 19, with factors U(K−1)D(μ)U(K-1)D(\mu)U(K−1)D(μ), (U−1)D(μ)(U-1)D(\mu)(U−1)D(μ) and (K−U)D(μ)(K-U)D(\mu)(K−U)D(μ).
  4. Lemma 22 (p. 42): Ψu(t)≥∑k≠ku∗ΔukE[Tuk(t+1)]−ϵut\Psi_u(t)\ge\sum_{k\ne k^*_u}\Delta_{uk}\mathbb E[T_{uk}(t+1)]-\epsilon_u tΨu​(t)≥∑k=ku∗​​Δuk​E[Tuk​(t+1)]−ϵu​t for any policy.

Significance

Theorem 8 complements the late-stage 1/t1/t1/t lower bound. Together they show that queue-regret goes through a phase transition. Up to time of order K/ϵK/\epsilonK/ϵ, the queue-regret of any consistent policy grows like log⁡t/log⁡log⁡t\log t/\log\log tlogt/loglogt. Since the left end of the window does not move as ϵ→0\epsilon\to0ϵ→0 while the right end grows like 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ, the heavily loaded regime is exactly where learning costs are visible in queue lengths. The theorem also explains why algorithms designed for the late stage (Q-UCB, Q-ThS in the same paper) cannot avoid this early cost.

The formalization adds a machine-checked statement of a lower bound whose constants are pinned down precisely. In particular it states which quantities τ\tauτ and C1C_1C1​ may depend on (see below). Along the way it builds a reusable model of a learning switch scheduler: randomized, history-dependent policies, the coupled genie system and the stationary initial law. It also provides a Lai–Robbins-type count bound (Lemma 19) for matching bandits. The results are proved on paper in the held preprint (§9.2). To the best of the platform's records none of them has been formalized.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 8 is to bound the queue-regret below by the regret of the corresponding bandit. That fails, because queue-regret is not cumulative: an empty queue forgives past mistakes. The proof therefore needs the stationary start (Assumption 3), so that E[Qu∗(t)]=E[Qu(0)]\mathbb E[Q^*_u(t)]=\mathbb E[Q_u(0)]E[Qu∗​(t)]=E[Qu​(0)] and the sub-optimal schedules show up as a drift (Lemma 22). This holds only up to a load term ϵut\epsilon_u tϵu​t, which limits the window.

The count bound (Lemma 19) requires a change of measure between two instances that swap the best servers of two queues. It needs a chain rule for the KL divergence of adaptively collected observations, where the policy's own randomness must cancel. Neither the swapped instances nor the trajectory law are standard Mathlib objects.

Formalization scope

  • Queues are Fin U and servers are Fin K, with 1≤U≤K1\le U\le K1≤U≤K and K≥2K\ge2K≥2. K=1K=1K=1 is trivial, and for it Δ\DeltaΔ is an empty minimum.
  • Slots are 1-based. Matchings are embeddings Fin U ↪ Fin K.
  • Probability space. The randomness is a product of independent uniforms on [0,1][0,1][0,1] per slot (arrivals, link services, one private scheduler seed), i.i.d. over slots. Bernoulli variables arise by thresholding. The initial state is drawn independently.
  • Policies see only past schedules and the services on scheduled links (p. 6), plus a private uniform. This covers every randomized, history-dependent policy, and each choice is required to be measurable in the seed.
  • The genie shares the initial state, arrivals and services of the policy's system. Queue-regret is a Lebesgue integral of Qu(t)−Qu∗(t)Q_u(t)-Q^*_u(t)Qu​(t)−Qu∗​(t), a difference bounded by ttt.
  • Assumption 3 is the product of the geometric laws (1−ρu)ρun(1-\rho_u)\rho_u^n(1−ρu​)ρun​, ρu=λu(1−μu∗)/((1−λu)μu∗)\rho_u=\lambda_u(1-\mu^*_u)/((1-\lambda_u)\mu^*_u)ρu​=λu​(1−μu∗​)/((1−λu​)μu∗​). This is the stationary law of the printed recursion.
  • α-consistency quantifies over every instance with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1] satisfying Assumption 1. The constant is chosen after the instance, and the definition does not mention λ\lambdaλ, because the schedule does not depend on it.
  • D(μ)D(\mu)D(μ) and 1/KL1/\mathrm{KL}1/KL are set to 000 when μ∗=1\mu^*=1μ∗=1, where the divergence is infinite.
  • Lemma 19 and Corollary 20 carry C>0C>0C>0, which is without loss of generality. Corollary 20(c)'s sum ∑k>U\sum_{k>U}∑k>U​ is the sum over servers that are optimal for no queue.
  • Constants of Theorem 8. The paper says τ,C1\tau,C_1τ,C1​ are "independent of (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ)". Its proof supports independence of λ\lambdaλ only, so the formal statement chooses τ,C1\tau,C_1τ,C1​ after μ\muμ and the policy but before λ\lambdaλ. Choosing them after λ\lambdaλ would trivialize the theorem, since a huge C1C_1C1​ makes the hypothesis ϵˉ<η/2\bar\epsilon<\eta/2ϵˉ<η/2 unsatisfiable. The formal τ\tauτ also exceeds eee, so that log⁡log⁡t>0\log\log t>0loglogt>0 on the window, and ttt ranges over integers.
  • Assumptions. Assumptions 1–3 appear exactly where the paper uses them: Lemma 22 and Theorem 8 assume all three, Lemma 19 and Corollary 20 only Assumption 1.

The source is the arXiv v4 preprint; the paper's proofs are in its §§8–9. Welcome contributions include the KL chain rule for adaptively scheduled Bernoulli observations, stationarity of the geometric law for the genie chain, and measurability of the trajectory.

Selected references

  • S. Krishnasamy, R. Sen, R. Johari, S. Shakkottai, Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues: A Multiarmed Bandit Approach, Operations Research 69(1), 2021; preprint arXiv:1604.06377v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.06377
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics 6, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • A. B. Tsybakov, Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/b13794
  • S. Bubeck, V. Perchet, P. Rigollet, Bounded regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits, COLT 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.1611
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Bandit AlgorithmsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues 1: Every α-Consistent Scheduling Policy Has Average Queue-Regret at Least λ_min D(μ)(1−α)(K−1)/(8t) for Infinitely Many tResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service systems must route work to servers whose quality is not known in advance: crowdsourcing platforms matching job types to worker types, wireless schedulers assigning users to channels, call centers routing request classes to agent pools. Learning the unknown service rates is a multi-armed bandit problem, but the cost of a bad decision is not a lost reward. It is a longer queue, and a queue can recover from past mistakes when it empties. Krishnasamy, Sen, Johari and Shakkottai (arXiv:1604.06377v4, Operations Research 2021, doi:10.1287/opre.2020.1995) measure the cost of learning by the queue-regret, the expected excess queue length relative to a genie that knows the rates. Their analysis shows two regimes. Early on the regret grows like a bandit regret. After the system has learned enough to stabilize, queues regenerate and the regret decays. This mission formalizes their lower bound for the second regime: no reasonable learning policy can make the late-stage queue-regret decay faster than 1/t1/t1/t.

The lower bound adapts the classical consistency-based bandit lower bounds of Lai and Robbins (1985) and their non-asymptotic, hypothesis-testing form (Bubeck, Perchet and Rigollet 2013) to queue dynamics. The step from counts of suboptimal schedules to queue lengths is specific to queues.

Setting

A switch has UUU queues and K≥UK\ge UK≥U servers. Time is slotted, t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,…. In slot ttt queue uuu receives an arrival Au(t)∼Bernoulli(λu)A_u(t)\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\lambda_u)Au​(t)∼Bernoulli(λu​), and the link between queue uuu and server kkk offers a service Ruk(t)∼Bernoulli(μuk)R_{uk}(t)\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\mu_{uk})Ruk​(t)∼Bernoulli(μuk​). All of these are independent, and i.i.d. over slots. A problem instance is the pair (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ), with every entry in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

In every slot the scheduler picks a matching κ(t)\kappa(t)κ(t): queue uuu is assigned server κu(t)\kappa_u(t)κu​(t), and distinct queues get distinct servers. The scheduler knows neither λ\lambdaλ nor μ\muμ. Its decision in slot ttt may use the past schedules, the services observed on the scheduled links in slots 1,…,t−11,\dots,t-11,…,t−1, and its own randomness. Queue uuu receives Su(t)=Ruκu(t)(t)S_u(t)=R_{u\kappa_u(t)}(t)Su​(t)=Ruκu​(t)​(t) and evolves as

Qu(t)=(Qu(t−1)+Au(t)−Su(t))+.Q_u(t)=\big(Q_u(t-1)+A_u(t)-S_u(t)\big)^+ .Qu​(t)=(Qu​(t−1)+Au​(t)−Su​(t))+.

Assumption 1 (unique optimal matching) says that each queue uuu has a unique best server ku∗k^*_uku∗​, and that u≠u′u\ne u'u=u′ implies ku∗≠ku′∗k^*_u\ne k^*_{u'}ku∗​=ku′∗​. The genie always schedules k∗k^*k∗. Its queues Q∗Q^*Q∗ start from the same Q(0)Q(0)Q(0) and see the same arrivals and offered services, with Su∗(t)=Ruku∗(t)S^*_u(t)=R_{uk^*_u}(t)Su∗​(t)=Ruku∗​​(t). The queue-regret of queue uuu is Ψu(t)=E[Qu(t)−Qu∗(t)]\Psi_u(t)=\mathbb E[Q_u(t)-Q^*_u(t)]Ψu​(t)=E[Qu​(t)−Qu∗​(t)].

Write μu∗=μuku∗\mu^*_u=\mu_{uk^*_u}μu∗​=μuku∗​​, Δuk=μu∗−μuk\Delta_{uk}=\mu^*_u-\mu_{uk}Δuk​=μu∗​−μuk​, Δ=min⁡u,k≠ku∗Δuk\Delta=\min_{u,k\ne k^*_u}\Delta_{uk}Δ=minu,k=ku∗​​Δuk​, μmin⁡=min⁡u,kμuk\mu_{\min}=\min_{u,k}\mu_{uk}μmin​=minu,k​μuk​, μ∗=max⁡u,kμuk\mu^*=\max_{u,k}\mu_{uk}μ∗=maxu,k​μuk​, λmin⁡=min⁡uλu\lambda_{\min}=\min_u\lambda_uλmin​=minu​λu​. With the Bernoulli divergence KL(p,q)=plog⁡pq+(1−p)log⁡1−p1−q\mathrm{KL}(p,q)=p\log\frac pq+(1-p)\log\frac{1-p}{1-q}KL(p,q)=plogqp​+(1−p)log1−q1−p​, display (2) of the paper defines

D(μ)=ΔKL(μmin⁡,μ∗+12).D(\mu)=\frac{\Delta}{\mathrm{KL}\big(\mu_{\min},\tfrac{\mu^*+1}{2}\big)} .D(μ)=KL(μmin​,2μ∗+1​)Δ​.

Let Tuk(t+1)=∑s=1t1{κu(s)=k}T_{uk}(t+1)=\sum_{s=1}^t\mathbf 1\{\kappa_u(s)=k\}Tuk​(t+1)=∑s=1t​1{κu​(s)=k}. For α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1), a policy is α\alphaα-consistent (Definition 2) if for every instance with a unique optimal matching there is a constant C(λ,μ)C(\lambda,\mu)C(λ,μ) with E[Tuk(t+1)]≤C(λ,μ) tα\mathbb E[T_{uk}(t+1)]\le C(\lambda,\mu)\,t^\alphaE[Tuk​(t+1)]≤C(λ,μ)tα for all uuu and all k≠ku∗k\ne k^*_uk=ku∗​. Consistency rules out policies tuned to one instance, such as "always schedule a fixed matching", which would have zero regret on that instance and linear regret elsewhere.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 12)

For every instance with a unique optimal matching, every law of the initial queue lengths, every α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1) and every α\alphaα-consistent policy:

1U∑u∈[U]Ψu(t)  ≥  λmin⁡8D(μ)(1−α)(K−1)⋅1tfor infinitely many t,\frac1U\sum_{u\in[U]}\Psi_u(t)\;\ge\;\frac{\lambda_{\min}}{8}D(\mu)(1-\alpha)(K-1)\cdot\frac1t\quad\text{for infinitely many } t,U1​u∈[U]∑​Ψu​(t)≥8λmin​​D(μ)(1−α)(K−1)⋅t1​for infinitely many t, Ψu(t)  ≥  λmin⁡8D(μ)(1−α)max⁡{U−1, 2(K−U)}⋅1tfor infinitely many t, for each u.\Psi_u(t)\;\ge\;\frac{\lambda_{\min}}{8}D(\mu)(1-\alpha)\max\{U-1,\,2(K-U)\}\cdot\frac1t\quad\text{for infinitely many } t,\ \text{for each } u.Ψu​(t)≥8λmin​​D(μ)(1−α)max{U−1,2(K−U)}⋅t1​for infinitely many t, for each u.

Milestones

  • Lemma 18 (p. 37), the Bretagnolle–Huber inequality P(A)+Q(Ac)≥12e−KL(P∥Q)P(\mathcal A)+Q(\mathcal A^c)\ge\frac12e^{-\mathrm{KL}(P\|Q)}P(A)+Q(Ac)≥21​e−KL(P∥Q). It is already proved on the platform and enters as a reference.
  • Lemma 19 (p. 37). For t>τt>\taut>τ: E[Tuk(t+1)]+∑u′≠u1{ku′∗=k}E[Tu′ku∗(t+1)]≥(1−α)log⁡t−log⁡(4KC)KL(μmin⁡,(μ∗+1)/2)\mathbb E[T_{uk}(t+1)]+\sum_{u'\ne u}\mathbf 1\{k^*_{u'}=k\}\mathbb E[T_{u'k^*_u}(t+1)]\ge\frac{(1-\alpha)\log t-\log(4KC)}{\mathrm{KL}(\mu_{\min},(\mu^*+1)/2)}E[Tuk​(t+1)]+∑u′=u​1{ku′∗​=k}E[Tu′ku∗​​(t+1)]≥KL(μmin​,(μ∗+1)/2)(1−α)logt−log(4KC)​.
  • Corollary 20 (p. 39). The same bound summed over all queues, over one queue, and over the servers that are optimal for no queue.
  • Lemma 21 (p. 41). For any policy, Ψu(t)≥λu∑k≠ku∗Δuk P[κu(t)=k]\Psi_u(t)\ge\lambda_u\sum_{k\ne k^*_u}\Delta_{uk}\,\mathbb P[\kappa_u(t)=k]Ψu​(t)≥λu​∑k=ku∗​​Δuk​P[κu​(t)=k].
  • Fact 1 (p. 42). If ∑m≤nam≥Clog⁡n\sum_{m\le n}a_m\ge C\log n∑m≤n​am​≥Clogn eventually, then an≥C/(2n)a_n\ge C/(2n)an​≥C/(2n) infinitely often.

A companion item, Lemma 1 (p. 10), states Ψu(t)≤∑l=1tE[Su∗(l)−Su(l)]\Psi_u(t)\le\sum_{l=1}^t\mathbb E[S^*_u(l)-S_u(l)]Ψu​(t)≤∑l=1t​E[Su∗​(l)−Su​(l)]: queue-regret never exceeds the bandit regret.

Significance

Theorem 3 shows that the paper's Q-UCB algorithm, whose late-stage queue-regret is O(log⁡3t/t)O(\log^3 t/t)O(log3t/t) (Theorem 5), is optimal in its dependence on ttt up to polylogarithmic factors. It also separates queue-regret from bandit regret. The bandit regret of a consistent policy grows like log⁡t\log tlogt, while the queue-regret decays to zero. The cost of learning in a queue is transient, but it cannot vanish faster than 1/t1/t1/t. The theorem holds for every initial law of the queues, so it does not depend on the system starting in steady state.

The proof is complete in the source (§9.1, pp. 37–42). As far as we know none of it is machine-checked. A formal development would also give the first formal bandit lower bound in which the consistency class must contain the alternative instances of a change-of-measure argument, here instances with two optimal servers swapped, together with a reusable model of a learning scheduler on a switch.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to bound the regret of each slot by the probability of a suboptimal schedule (Lemma 21), and to bound the number of suboptimal schedules from below by a Lai–Robbins argument. Both steps resist direct proof.

For the first step, QQQ and Q∗Q^*Q∗ share arrivals and services but are not ordered pathwise, because the policy's services are independent across links. A comparison exists only in distribution.

For the second step, the alternative instance must again satisfy Assumption 1, so a single service rate cannot simply be raised. When server kkk is the best server of another queue u′u'u′, the best servers of uuu and u′u'u′ must be swapped, and the divergence decomposition then involves two links.

The final step goes from a cumulative bound to an "infinitely often" bound, and only from a logarithmic lower bound on partial sums. A lower bound on cumulative regret does not give a bound for every large ttt.

Formalization scope

Queues and servers are Fin U and Fin K (0-based), with 1≤U≤K1\le U\le K1≤U≤K. The hypothesis K≥2K\ge2K≥2 is added: for K=1K=1K=1 the policy and the genie coincide and both sides are zero, and the minimum defining Δ\DeltaΔ would range over an empty set. Slots are 1-based.

The probability space is canonical: Ω=NU×SeedN\Omega=\mathbb N^U\times\text{Seed}^{\mathbb N}Ω=NU×SeedN with law ν⊗Unif⊗N\nu\otimes\mathrm{Unif}^{\otimes\mathbb N}ν⊗Unif⊗N. A seed holds one uniform per arrival, one per link and one for the scheduler, and Au(t)=1{Wu(t)≤λu}A_u(t)=\mathbf 1\{W_u(t)\le\lambda_u\}Au​(t)=1{Wu​(t)≤λu​}, Ruk(t)=1{Vuk(t)≤μuk}R_{uk}(t)=\mathbf 1\{V_{uk}(t)\le\mu_{uk}\}Ruk​(t)=1{Vuk​(t)≤μuk​}. A policy maps the history of past schedules and observed services, together with a private uniform seed, to a matching. The only constraint is measurability in the seed, so every randomized history-dependent policy is covered. The law ν\nuν of Q(0)Q(0)Q(0) is arbitrary, as the paper notes after Theorem 3, so Assumption 3 is not used. Assumption 2 (stability under the optimal matching, λu<μu∗\lambda_u<\mu^*_uλu​<μu∗​ for every uuu), which the paper assumes whenever queue-regret is evaluated (p. 8), is a hypothesis of Theorem 3 and of Lemmas 1 and 21. Lemma 19 and Corollary 20 concern schedule counts, which do not depend on the arrival rates.

Ψu(t)\Psi_u(t)Ψu​(t) is a Bochner integral of Qu(t)−Qu∗(t)Q_u(t)-Q^*_u(t)Qu​(t)−Qu∗​(t), which is bounded by ttt. Expected counts are integrals under the seed law, since the schedule never observes arrivals or Q(0)Q(0)Q(0). D(μ)D(\mu)D(μ) and 1/KL1/\mathrm{KL}1/KL are set to 000 when μ∗=1\mu^*=1μ∗=1, where the divergence is +∞+\infty+∞. Corollary 20(c)'s ∑k>U\sum_{k>U}∑k>U​ becomes the sum over servers outside the range of k∗k^*k∗. Fact 1 is stated for every real sequence: the printed "bounded" is not needed and does not hold in the application. "For infinitely many ttt" is ∃ᶠ t in atTop.

α\alphaα-consistency quantifies over every service matrix in [0,1]U×K[0,1]^{U\times K}[0,1]U×K satisfying Assumption 1, and its constant is chosen after the instance. Requiring consistency on the given instance only would make Theorem 3 false, because the genie's own policy has Ψ≡0\Psi\equiv0Ψ≡0. A constant chosen before the instance would make the hypothesis unsatisfiable.

A complete development needs the canonical seed space and its measurability, a chain rule for the KL divergence of the history laws, the Bretagnolle–Huber inequality (available), and an elementary harmonic-sum estimate. The switch model and the consistency class are reusable for the paper's early-stage lower bound and its upper bound. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of Lemma 21 that avoid the coupling, are welcome.

The source is the arXiv v4 preprint; the paper's proofs are in its §§8–9.

Selected references

  • S. Krishnasamy, R. Sen, R. Johari, S. Shakkottai, Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues: A Multiarmed Bandit Approach, Operations Research 69(1), 2021. Preprint arXiv:1604.06377v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.06377v4
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics 6(1), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • A. B. Tsybakov, Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation, Springer, 2009 (Lemma 2.6). https://doi.org/10.1007/b13794
  • S. Bubeck, V. Perchet, P. Rigollet, Bounded regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits, COLT 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.1611
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