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Operations Research

2,686 missions · 1,386 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Trained Neural Networks 1: A ReLU Neuron over a Box Has an Ideal Formulation with One Binary Variable and the Exponential Family (6b)Research Paper

Why optimize over a trained ReLU neuron

A trained feed-forward neural network with ReLU activations, ReLU(v)=max⁡{0,v}\mathrm{ReLU}(v)=\max\{0,v\}ReLU(v)=max{0,v}, is a piecewise linear function of its input. Many tasks ask for an optimization over such a network with its weights held fixed: verifying that no small perturbation of an image changes its classification, finding adversarial examples, or embedding a learned model of demand or cost inside a decision problem ("predict, then optimize"). The standard way to solve such problems exactly is mixed-integer programming (MIP): each neuron is written as a small set of linear constraints with one binary variable, and the network is the composition of these neuron formulations. How strong each neuron formulation is decides how fast branch-and-bound can close the gap.

The formulation used in the literature up to 2018 is the big-M formulation. It is valid but weak. This mission formalizes the main result of Anderson, Huchette, Tjandraatmadja and Vielma, IPCO 2019 extended abstract (arXiv:1811.08359v2), which gives the strongest possible formulation of a single ReLU neuron that uses the original variables and one binary variable only.

Timeline. Big-M formulations of ReLU networks were used by several groups in 2017–2018 for verification and adversarial analysis (see §1.2 of the paper). Balas's disjunctive programming (1985, 1998) and the multiple choice formulation of piecewise linear functions (Vielma and Nemhauser, Math. Program. 2011) give an ideal formulation of the neuron that needs a copy of the input variables. Anderson et al. (2019) project out that copy and obtain the formulation (6) below; a longer journal version (Math. Program. 2020, with W. Ma) develops the analysis further, including interactions between neurons.

Setting

Fix η∈N\eta\in\mathbb Nη∈N, a weight vector w∈Rηw\in\mathbb R^\etaw∈Rη, a bias b∈Rb\in\mathbb Rb∈R, and bounds L,U∈RηL,U\in\mathbb R^\etaL,U∈Rη with Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for every iii. The neuron computes ReLU(f(x))\mathrm{ReLU}(f(x))ReLU(f(x)) for the affine function f(x)=w⋅x+bf(x)=w\cdot x+bf(x)=w⋅x+b on the box [L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}[L,U]=\{x: L\le x\le U\}[L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}. Its graph is

gr⁡(ReLU∘f;[L,U])={(x,ReLU(f(x))):L≤x≤U}.\operatorname{gr}(\mathrm{ReLU}\circ f;[L,U])=\{(x,\mathrm{ReLU}(f(x))) : L\le x\le U\}.gr(ReLU∘f;[L,U])={(x,ReLU(f(x))):L≤x≤U}.

The sign-adjusted bounds are L˘i=Li\breve L_i=L_iL˘i​=Li​, U˘i=Ui\breve U_i=U_iU˘i​=Ui​ when wi≥0w_i\ge 0wi​≥0, and L˘i=Ui\breve L_i=U_iL˘i​=Ui​, U˘i=Li\breve U_i=L_iU˘i​=Li​ when wi<0w_i<0wi​<0. Then M+(f)=w⋅U˘+bM^+(f)=w\cdot\breve U+bM+(f)=w⋅U˘+b and M−(f)=w⋅L˘+bM^-(f)=w\cdot\breve L+bM−(f)=w⋅L˘+b are the maximum and minimum of fff on [L,U][L,U][L,U], and supp⁡(w)={i:wi≠0}\operatorname{supp}(w)=\{i: w_i\ne 0\}supp(w)={i:wi​=0}. Strict activity means M−(f)<0<M+(f)M^-(f)<0<M^+(f)M−(f)<0<M+(f): the neuron is neither always off nor always on. The paper assumes throughout that Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ and that strict activity holds.

A set RRR of points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) with z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1], read together with the constraint z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}, is a formulation of the graph if (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) lies on the graph exactly when (x,y,z)∈R(x,y,z)\in R(x,y,z)∈R for some z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}; RRR is then its LP relaxation. The formulation is ideal if every extreme point of RRR has z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}.

The big-M formulation (3) is y≥f(x)y\ge f(x)y≥f(x), y≤f(x)−M−(f)(1−z)y\le f(x)-M^-(f)(1-z)y≤f(x)−M−(f)(1−z), y≤M+(f)zy\le M^+(f)zy≤M+(f)z, (x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}. The formulation of Proposition 1 is

y≥w⋅x+b(6a)y≤∑i∈Iwi(xi−L˘i(1−z))+(b+∑i∉IwiU˘i)z∀I⊆supp⁡(w)(6b)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}.(6c)\begin{aligned} &y\ge w\cdot x+b &&(6a)\\ &y\le\sum_{i\in I}w_i\bigl(x_i-\breve L_i(1-z)\bigr)+\Bigl(b+\sum_{i\notin I}w_i\breve U_i\Bigr)z\qquad\forall I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w) &&(6b)\\ &(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}. &&(6c) \end{aligned}​y≥w⋅x+by≤i∈I∑​wi​(xi​−L˘i​(1−z))+(b+i∈/I∑​wi​U˘i​)z∀I⊆supp(w)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}.​​(6a)(6b)(6c)​

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 6)

(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of gr⁡(ReLU∘f;[L,U]), and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has z∈{0,1}.\text{(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of }\operatorname{gr}(\mathrm{ReLU}\circ f;[L,U]),\ \text{and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has } z\in\{0,1\}.(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of gr(ReLU∘f;[L,U]), and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has z∈{0,1}.

Milestones (Appendix A.1 and §2.2)

  1. The multiple choice formulation (5), with copies x0,x1,y0,y1x^0,x^1,y^0,y^1x0,x1,y0,y1, has only integral zzz at extreme points in its lifted space and formulates the graph; projected to (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), its LP relaxation is the convex hull of its points with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1} (§2.2, pp. 5–6).
  2. Projecting the copies out of the LP relaxation of (5) gives the linear system (7): (6a), (6b), a second exponential family (7c), and the bounds (7d) (App. A.1, p. 14).
  3. The family (7c) is implied by the other constraints (App. A.1, pp. 14–15).
  4. The LP relaxation of (6) is the convex hull of its points with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1} (App. A.1, p. 14).

Companion results

  • M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are the maximum and minimum of fff on [L,U][L,U][L,U] (§1.3, p. 4).
  • Proposition 3 (p. 7): for (x^,y^,z^)∈[L,U]×R≥0×[0,1](\hat x,\hat y,\hat z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times[0,1](x^,y^​,z^)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×[0,1], if some inequality of (6b) is violated, the one for I^={i∈supp⁡(w):wix^i<wi(L˘i(1−z^)+U˘iz^)}\hat I=\{i\in\operatorname{supp}(w): w_i\hat x_i<w_i(\breve L_i(1-\hat z)+\breve U_i\hat z)\}I^={i∈supp(w):wi​x^i​<wi​(L˘i​(1−z^)+U˘i​z^)} is the most violated.
  • The big-M formulation (3) is a formulation of the graph (p. 4); Examples 1 and 2 (p. 5) show that it is not ideal and that its gap grows like 12γη\tfrac12\gamma\eta21​γη; its inequalities (3b), (3c) are (6b) for I=supp⁡(w)I=\operatorname{supp}(w)I=supp(w) and I=∅I=\emptysetI=∅ (p. 7).

Significance

Proposition 1 says that the convex hull of the graph, lifted with one binary variable, is described by (6a), (6b) and the bounds, with no auxiliary continuous variables. Optimizing a linear function over the LP relaxation of (6) therefore gives the tightest convex relaxation available for a single neuron, and Proposition 3 gives a separation routine linear in η\etaη, so the exponential family can be added on demand to a big-M model. The paper's experiments (§3, not formalized) report that separating over (6b) solves smaller MNIST verification instances faster than Gurobi's default cut generation by a factor of 7.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. The work this mission asks for is the formalization of the known proof: an ideality statement for the multiple choice formulation, a Fourier–Motzkin projection carried out for an arbitrary index set with general-sign weights, and the passage from a hull identity to integrality of extreme points.

Difficulty

The formulation half of Proposition 1 is a short case analysis on z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}; the content is ideality. The obvious attempt, characterizing the extreme points of the LP relaxation of (6) directly, is impractical: the polytope is cut out by 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ inequalities, and showing that every point with fractional zzz is a proper convex combination of feasible points means handling all patterns of tight inequalities of (6b) at once. Ideality of the extended formulation (5) is classical and passes to its projection onto (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), but that only helps once the projection is known to be exactly the LP relaxation of (6): it has to be computed for an arbitrary index set, and every inequality it produces must be shown to be one of (6a), (6b), the bounds, or implied by them. Weights of both signs must be handled throughout: the page treats negative weights by a change of variables, and a formal development has to carry the sign-adjusted bounds L˘,U˘\breve L,\breve UL˘,U˘ through every step.

Formalization scope

Inputs x∈Rηx\in\mathbb R^\etax∈Rη are Fin η → ℝ, so indices are 0-based; points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) are (Fin η → ℝ) × ℝ × ℝ. A formulation is encoded by its LP relaxation RRR (with z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1]) and the predicate "(x,y)∈S(x,y)\in S(x,y)∈S iff (x,y,z)∈R(x,y,z)\in R(x,y,z)∈R for some z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}"; ideality is ∀ p ∈ Set.extremePoints ℝ R, p.2.2 = 0 ∨ p.2.2 = 1. M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are defined by their closed forms, and a companion theorem proves that they are the maximum and minimum. In (6b) and (7c), "i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I" ranges over all indices outside III, zero weights included. The system (7) is stated with L˘,U˘\breve L,\breve UL˘,U˘, i.e. after undoing the page's substitution x~i=−xi\tilde x_i=-x_ix~i​=−xi​; for w≥0w\ge 0w≥0 it is the page's display. The LP relaxation of (5) is represented both in its lifted space and projected to (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), with the copies quantified existentially in the latter, and constant bbb is scaled by 1−z1-z1−z in (5b) and by zzz in (5c).

The goal carries both standing assumptions of §1.3 (Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ and strict activity) and nothing else. Milestones that do not need strict activity omit it, which makes them stronger. Example 2 includes the page's γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 boundary: although its box then violates Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ when η>0\eta>0η>0, the example's three stated claims remain true.

Ideality is a statement about the LP relaxation, not about the set with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}: applied to the latter it would hold trivially, and a goal stating only that (6) is a formulation would omit the result's content. Both are ruled out by the statement of the goal.

A complete development needs: extreme points and convex hulls of polyhedra in product spaces (Mathlib), the hull of a union of two polytopes as a projection, Fourier–Motzkin elimination over an arbitrary finite index set, and finite-sum manipulations over subsets of supp⁡(w)\operatorname{supp}(w)supp(w). The Fourier–Motzkin and disjunctive-hull lemmas are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either are welcome, as are proofs of the companion results.

Source: the IPCO 2019 extended abstract, arXiv:1811.08359v2 (28 Feb 2019); all labels and pages refer to that version.

Selected references

  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, IPCO 2019 (LNCS 11480), extended abstract. arXiv:1811.08359v2
  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, W. Ma, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, Mathematical Programming 183 (2020) 3–39. doi:10.1007/s10107-020-01474-5, arXiv:1811.01988
  • J. P. Vielma, G. Nemhauser, Modeling disjunctive constraints with a logarithmic number of binary variables and constraints, Mathematical Programming 128 (2011) 49–72. doi:10.1007/s10107-009-0295-4
  • E. Balas, Disjunctive programming and a hierarchy of relaxations for discrete optimization problems, SIAM Journal on Algebraic and Discrete Methods 6(3) (1985) 466–486. doi:10.1137/0606047
  • E. Balas, Disjunctive programming: properties of the convex hull of feasible points, Discrete Applied Mathematics 89 (1998) 3–44. doi:10.1016/S0166-218X(98)00136-X
  • J. P. Vielma, Mixed integer linear programming formulation techniques, SIAM Review 57(1) (2015) 3–57. doi:10.1137/130915303
7 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 1: Under Weak Interaction the Liquidation Mean Field Game Has a Unique Equilibrium, Given by a Singular Conditional Mean-Field FBSDEResearch Paper

Motivation

Large traders who must unwind a position by a deadline face a trade-off between trading fast, which moves prices against them, and trading slowly, which exposes them to price risk. When many traders liquidate at once, each one's execution price also depends on the aggregate selling rate of the others. Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911) model this as a mean field game (MFG) with common noise and a hard liquidation constraint: every position must be zero at the terminal time TTT. Single-player liquidation with this constraint leads to backward equations with singular terminal values (Ankirchner, Jeanblanc and Kruse, SIAM J. Control Optim. 2014; Graewe, Horst and Séré, Stoch. Proc. Appl. 2018). Earlier MFG models of execution (Cardaliaguet and Lehalle, Math. Financ. Econ. 2018; Carmona and Lacker, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2015) allow no liquidation constraint. This mission formalizes the paper's first main result: the constrained game has a unique equilibrium under a weak-interaction condition.

Setting

Fix T>0T>0T>0 and a probability space carrying an mmm-dimensional Brownian motion W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W), where W0W^0W0 is the one-dimensional common noise, and an initial portfolio X∈L2\mathcal X\in L^2X∈L2 independent of W~\widetilde WW. Let F0\mathbb F^0F0 be the filtration of W0W^0W0 and F\mathbb FF that of (X,W0,W)(\mathcal X,W^0,W)(X,W0,W), both augmented by null sets. The cost coefficients are bounded nonnegative F\mathbb FF-progressive processes κ\kappaκ (interaction), λ\lambdaλ (risk aversion) and η\etaη (temporary impact), with λ,η\lambda,\etaλ,η bounded away from zero.

A player's trading rate ξ\xiξ produces the position Xtξ=X−∫0tξsdsX^\xi_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\xi_sdsXtξ​=X−∫0t​ξs​ds. The admissible strategies are AF(X)={ξ∈LF2:∫0Tξsds=X}\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}(\mathcal X)=\{\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}:\int_0^T\xi_sds=\mathcal X\}AF​(X)={ξ∈LF2​:∫0T​ξs​ds=X}. Given an F0\mathbb F^0F0-progressive aggregate rate μ\muμ, the cost is

J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κsXsξμs+ηsξs2+λs(Xsξ)2)ds ∣ X],J(\mathcal X,\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_sX^\xi_s\mu_s+\eta_s\xi_s^2+\lambda_s(X^\xi_s)^2\big)ds\ \Big|\ \mathcal X\Big],J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κs​Xsξ​μs​+ηs​ξs2​+λs​(Xsξ​)2)ds ​ X],

and V(X;μ)V(\mathcal X;\mu)V(X;μ) is its essential infimum over AF(X)\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}(\mathcal X)AF​(X). A process μ\muμ solves the MFG (1.7) if some optimal strategy ξ∗\xi^*ξ∗ given μ\muμ satisfies μt=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​] for a.e. ttt.

The equilibrium is described by the conditional mean-field FBSDE (2.3):

Xt=X−∫0tYs2ηsds,XT=0,−dYt=(κt E[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t  on [0,T).X_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\frac{Y_s}{2\eta_s}ds,\quad X_T=0,\quad -dY_t=\Big(\kappa_t\,\mathbb E\Big[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}\Big|\mathcal F^0_t\Big]+2\lambda_tX_t\Big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t\ \ \text{on }[0,T).Xt​=X−∫0t​2ηs​Ys​​ds,XT​=0,−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​​Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​  on [0,T).

Solutions are sought in weighted spaces: Y∈HlY\in\mathcal H_lY∈Hl​ if Esup⁡t≤T∣Yt/(T−t)l∣2<∞\mathbb E\sup_{t\le T}|Y_t/(T-t)^l|^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​∣Yt​/(T−t)l∣2<∞, and Y∈MlY\in\mathcal M_lY∈Ml​ if (T−t)−l∣Yt∣(T-t)^{-l}|Y_t|(T−t)−l∣Yt​∣ is essentially bounded. The weak-interaction condition (Assumption 2.3) asks for θ>0\theta>0θ>0 with κmax⁡/(4η⋆)<θ<4λ⋆/κmax⁡\kappa_{\max}/(4\eta_\star)<\theta<4\lambda_\star/\kappa_{\max}κmax​/(4η⋆​)<θ<4λ⋆​/κmax​, and α:=η⋆/∥η∥∈(0,1]\alpha:=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|\in(0,1]α:=η⋆​/∥η∥∈(0,1]. The decoupling Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B uses the solution AAA of the singular Riccati BSDE −dAt=(2λt−At2/(2ηt))dt−ZtAdW~t-dA_t=(2\lambda_t-A_t^2/(2\eta_t))dt-Z^A_td\widetilde W_t−dAt​=(2λt​−At2​/(2ηt​))dt−ZtA​dWt​, AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

Under Assumption 2.3 the FBSDE (2.3) has a unique solution

(X,Y,Z)∈Hα×LF2([0,T])×LF2([0,T−];Rm);(X,Y,Z)\in\mathcal H_\alpha\times L^2_{\mathbb F}([0,T])\times L^2_{\mathbb F}([0,T-];\mathbb R^m);(X,Y,Z)∈Hα​×LF2​([0,T])×LF2​([0,T−];Rm);

ξ∗=Y/(2η)\xi^*=Y/(2\eta)ξ∗=Y/(2η) is optimal, XXX is the optimal position, μt∗=E[Yt/(2ηt)∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[Y_t/(2\eta_t)\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[Yt​/(2ηt​)∣Ft0​] is the unique solution of the MFG (1.7), and

V(X;μ∗)=12A0X2+12B0X+12E[∫0TκsXs∗μs∗ds ∣ X].V(\mathcal X;\mu^*)=\tfrac12A_0\mathcal X^2+\tfrac12B_0\mathcal X+\tfrac12\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\kappa_sX^*_s\mu^*_sds\ \Big|\ \mathcal X\Big].V(X;μ∗)=21​A0​X2+21​B0​X+21​E[∫0T​κs​Xs∗​μs∗​ds ​ X].

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof: Fact 2.2 on the weighted spaces; Lemma A.1, existence and uniqueness of AAA with the bounds (A.1), and A∈M−1A\in\mathcal M_{-1}A∈M−1​; the decay estimate (2.9), exp⁡(−∫rsAu/(2ηu)du)≤((T−s)/(T−r))α\exp(-\int_r^sA_u/(2\eta_u)du)\le((T-s)/(T-r))^\alphaexp(−∫rs​Au​/(2ηu​)du)≤((T−s)/(T−r))α; Lemma 2.5, an a priori estimate for the decoupled system (2.11) with homotopy parameter p∈[0,1]\mathfrak p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1]; Lemma 2.6, explicit unique solvability at p=0\mathfrak p=0p=0; Lemma 2.7, the continuation step p→p+d\mathfrak p\to\mathfrak p+\mathfrak dp→p+d; Proposition 2.8, unique solvability of (2.3) with (2.10) and a norm bound; the boundary limit (2.15); and Proposition 2.9, optimality, the equilibrium property and the value formula.

Significance

The theorem gives a complete equilibrium description for constrained liquidation with many players and stochastic, partially common market data: the equilibrium rate is the conditional expectation of the decoupled feedback rate given the common noise, and its value is explicit in terms of the Riccati solution. It is the basis of the paper's other two results, the O(N−1/2)O(N^{-1/2})O(N−1/2)-Nash property of the equilibrium in the NNN-player game (Theorem 3.3) and the approximation by penalized games (Theorem 4.6), which are separate missions in this series.

The result is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development would contain the first formal treatment of BSDEs with singular terminal value and of a conditional (common-noise) mean-field FBSDE. Shorter proofs of individual steps, in particular of the a priori estimate and the continuation step, are welcome.

Difficulty

The obvious approach fails at the terminal time. Standard FBSDE theory requires a terminal condition for YYY; here only XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 is known, and YTY_TYT​ is undetermined. The decoupling coefficient AAA blows up like (T−t)−1(T-t)^{-1}(T−t)−1, so the driver of the equation for BBB is singular, and the classical monotonicity method of Hu–Peng and Peng–Wu, applied to (X,B)(X,B)(X,B) in unweighted spaces, does not close. The paper works instead with weighted norms that encode the rate at which XXX and BBB vanish at TTT, and runs the continuation on the triple (X,B,Y)(X,B,Y)(X,B,Y). The mean-field term is a conditional expectation given the common-noise filtration, not an expectation, so it remains random and has to be controlled pathwise in the weighted norms.

Formalization scope

Time is ℝ≥0; processes are real valued and W~\widetilde WW has m=k+1m=k+1m=k+1 coordinates, coordinate 000 being W0W^0W0. The Itô calculus is the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, Itô integrals, BSDEs in integrated form). The explicit choices:

  • Filtrations are augmented by the measurable null sets, and F\mathbb FF contains σ(X)\sigma(\mathcal X)σ(X).
  • κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over dt⊗dPdt\otimes d\mathbb Pdt⊗dP. Condition (2.4) is written without division, and "1/λ,1/η1/\lambda,1/\eta1/λ,1/η bounded" as positive essential lower bounds.
  • Assumption 2.3 is a hypothesis of every statement of §2, as the paper's standing assumption. Lemma A.1 (appendix) assumes only what §A assumes: λ,η\lambda,\etaλ,η progressive, nonnegative and bounded, and 1/η1/\eta1/η bounded.
  • Backward equations on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T. AT=∞A_T=\inftyAT​=∞ means At→+∞A_t\to+\inftyAt​→+∞ as t↑Tt\uparrow Tt↑T a.s.
  • Weighted norms are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with the weight (T−t)−l(T-t)^{-l}(T−t)−l in ℝ≥0∞.
  • Every conditional expectation E[⋅∣Ft0]\mathbb E[\cdot\mid\mathcal F^0_t]E[⋅∣Ft0​] in an equation is evaluated through a progressive version, and its argument is required to be integrable.
  • The value is an essential infimum of conditional costs.
  • The relation Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B is part of the solution concept of (2.11): without it, YYY is determined only up to an additive F0\mathcal F_0F0​-measurable constant.
  • The constant of Proposition 2.8 is uniform over initial portfolios in an L2L^2L2 ball, for fixed coefficients.
  • Fact 2.2's product rule assumes paths of K1K_1K1​ continuous on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T), and its claim that KT=0K_T=0KT​=0 for K∈MlK\in\mathcal M_lK∈Ml​ is not stated. Both printed versions fail under the essential-supremum norm.

The interaction term must stay conditioned on Ft0\mathcal F^0_tFt0​: conditioning on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ makes it Yt/(2ηt)Y_t/(2\eta_t)Yt​/(2ηt​) itself and collapses the game. The constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 and the admissibility condition ∫0Tξ=X\int_0^T\xi=\mathcal X∫0T​ξ=X cannot be dropped either. The degenerate instance κ≡0\kappa\equiv0κ≡0 satisfies all hypotheses but decouples the game.

A complete development needs the following, all reusable beyond this mission: martingale representation for the augmented filtration F\mathbb FF; existence of progressive versions of conditional expectation processes; Doob's inequality on [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ]; and linear BSDE solution formulas.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • S. Ankirchner, M. Jeanblanc, T. Kruse, BSDEs with singular terminal condition and a control problem with constraints, SIAM J. Control Optim. 52(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1137/130913411
  • P. Graewe, U. Horst, E. Séré, Smooth solutions to portfolio liquidation problems under price-sensitive market impact, Stoch. Proc. Appl. 128(3), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2017.07.002
  • P. Cardaliaguet, C.-A. Lehalle, Mean field game of controls and an application to trade crowding, Math. Financ. Econ. 12, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-017-0206-z
  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1020
  • Y. Hu, S. Peng, Solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations, Probab. Theory Related Fields 103, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01204214
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Algorithmic Game TheoryControl TheoryProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 3: The Mean-Field Equilibrium Strategies Form an O(1/√N)-Nash Equilibrium of the N-Player Liquidation GameResearch Paper

Motivation

A trader who must sell a large position within a fixed horizon faces a trade-off: selling fast moves the price against her (temporary price impact), selling slowly exposes her to price risk. Since Almgren and Chriss, this optimal liquidation problem has been studied as a stochastic control problem with a terminal state constraint: the remaining position must be zero at the horizon TTT. When many traders liquidate at the same time, each trader's sales also depress the price that the others receive (permanent price impact), and the problem becomes a game.

Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911v3) study this game in the mean-field limit. Their §2 constructs a mean-field equilibrium through a singular conditional mean-field FBSDE. Their §3, the subject of this mission, justifies the limit: the strategies computed from the mean field game are an approximate Nash equilibrium of the finite game with NNN traders, with an error of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​. Without such a result, the mean-field equilibrium describes a model nobody plays; with it, the equilibrium is a usable approximation for large but finite markets.

The approximation of NNN-player games by mean field games goes back to Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) and Lasry and Lions (2007); Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51, 2013) proved an εN\varepsilon_NεN​-Nash property for a McKean–Vlasov class with state interaction and a rate N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4). The present game differs in three respects: players interact through their controls (the average trading rate), there is a common noise observed by all, and each player's state must reach zero at time TTT.

Setting

A single probability space carries a one-dimensional Brownian motion W0W^0W0 (the common noise, which drives the benchmark price and is observed by every player), for each player iii a kkk-dimensional Brownian motion WiW^iWi (the private noise), and i.i.d. initial portfolios Xi\mathcal X^iXi with law ν\nuν; all of these are mutually independent. Player iii observes Fi\mathbb F^iFi, Fti=σ(Xi,Ws0,Wsi, s≤t)\mathcal F^i_t=\sigma(\mathcal X^i,W^0_s,W^i_s,\ s\le t)Fti​=σ(Xi,Ws0​,Wsi​, s≤t), and chooses a trading rate ξi\xi^iξi; her position is Xti=Xi−∫0tξsi dsX^i_t=\mathcal X^i-\int_0^t\xi^i_s\,dsXti​=Xi−∫0t​ξsi​ds and must satisfy XTi=0X^i_T=0XTi​=0. Given the profile ξ⃗=(ξ1,…,ξN)\vec\xi=(\xi^1,\dots,\xi^N)ξ​=(ξ1,…,ξN), her conditional cost is

JN,i(ξ⃗)=E[∫0T(κtiN∑j=1NξtjXti+ηti(ξti)2+λti(Xti)2)dt ∣ Xi],J^{N,i}(\vec\xi)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\Big(\frac{\kappa^i_t}{N}\sum_{j=1}^N\xi^j_tX^i_t+\eta^i_t(\xi^i_t)^2+\lambda^i_t(X^i_t)^2\Big)dt\ \Big|\ \mathcal X^i\Big],JN,i(ξ​)=E[∫0T​(Nκti​​j=1∑N​ξtj​Xti​+ηti​(ξti​)2+λti​(Xti​)2)dt ​ Xi],

where κi\kappa^iκi (permanent impact), ηi\eta^iηi (temporary impact) and λi\lambda^iλi (risk aversion) are nonnegative bounded processes. Under Assumption 3.1 they are the same deterministic measurable functionals κ,η,λ\kappa,\eta,\lambdaκ,η,λ of (t,Xi,W⋅∧ti,W⋅∧t0)(t,\mathcal X^i,W^i_{\cdot\wedge t},W^0_{\cdot\wedge t})(t,Xi,W⋅∧ti​,W⋅∧t0​) for every player, so the players are statistically identical.

In the mean field game, the average 1N∑jξj\frac1N\sum_j\xi^jN1​∑j​ξj is replaced by a process μ\muμ adapted to the common-noise filtration F0\mathbb F^0F0, and an equilibrium is a μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​] for the representative player's best response ξ∗\xi^*ξ∗. The paper characterizes it through the FBSDE (2.3),

dXt=−Yt2ηtdt,−dYt=(κt E[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t,X0=X, XT=0,dX_t=-\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}dt,\qquad -dY_t=\Big(\kappa_t\,\mathbb E\Big[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}\Big|\mathcal F^0_t\Big]+2\lambda_tX_t\Big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t,\qquad X_0=\mathcal X,\ X_T=0,dXt​=−2ηt​Yt​​dt,−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​​Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​,X0​=X, XT​=0,

with W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W); the optimal rate is ξ∗=Y/(2η)\xi^*=Y/(2\eta)ξ∗=Y/(2η). Player iii's mean-field strategy ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi)\xi^{*,i}=Y^i/(2\eta^i)ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi) comes from the same FBSDE with her own data.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

For a positive function MMM with ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M, where ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt∣Xi]\psi(\mathcal X^i)=\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt∣Xi], and admissible sets Ai={ξ∈AFi(Xi):E[∫0T∣ξt∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}\mathcal A^i=\{\xi\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb F^i}(\mathcal X^i):\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le M(\mathcal X^i)\}Ai={ξ∈AFi​(Xi):E[∫0T​∣ξt​∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}, there is a function ggg, independent of iii and NNN, with

JN,i(ξ⃗∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+g(Xi)Nfor all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)\le J^{N,i}(\xi^i,\xi^{*,-i})+\frac{g(\mathcal X^i)}{\sqrt N}\qquad\text{for all }N\ge1,\ 1\le i\le N,\ \xi^i\in\mathcal A^i .JN,i(ξ​∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+N​g(Xi)​for all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.

The goal asserts only the shape of the bound, not its constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.2: one measurable map Φ\PhiΦ gives (Xi,Yi,∫0⋅Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0)(X^i,Y^i,\int_0^\cdot Z^i)=\Phi(\mathcal X^i,W^i,W^0)(Xi,Yi,∫0⋅​Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0) for every player, and ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi)\xi^{*,i}=\phi(\mathcal X^i,W^0,W^i)ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi) (3.1).
  2. (3.2): a single μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗,i∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^{*,i}_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗,i​∣Ft0​] for every iii.
  3. (3.3): E∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt≤C\mathbb E\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\le CE∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt≤C uniformly in iii.
  4. (3.5): E[∫0T(μt∗−1N∑jξt∗,j)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2\mathbb E[\int_0^T(\mu^*_t-\frac1N\sum_j\xi^{*,j}_t)^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le 2(M(\mathcal X^i)+(2N-1)C)/N^2E[∫0T​(μt∗​−N1​∑j​ξt∗,j​)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2.
  5. The bounds on I1I_1I1​ and I2I_2I2​ (p. 24): the two differences of conditional costs into which the proof splits JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ⃗∗)J^{N,i}(\xi,\xi^{*,-i})-J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ​∗) are O(1/N)O(1/\sqrt N)O(1/N​).

Significance

The result turns the mean-field equilibrium of §2 into a statement about the finite market: when all NNN traders use their mean-field strategies, a trader who deviates can save at most g(Xi)/Ng(\mathcal X^i)/\sqrt Ng(Xi)/N​ in conditional expected cost. The error bound depends on the trader's own initial position only through M(Xi)M(\mathcal X^i)M(Xi), and the rate 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ is dimension-free, in contrast with the N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4) rates of state-interaction games, because the interaction runs through the empirical mean of the controls rather than through an empirical measure.

The paper's proof of Theorem 3.3 is short but rests on several facts it states without proof: the Yamada–Watanabe-type Lemma 3.2 (whose proof is referred to other papers), the identification (3.2) of a common conditional mean, and the moment bound (3.3) attributed to Proposition 2.8. This mission makes each of these a separate machine-checkable statement. As far as we know, none of these results, nor any optimal-liquidation mean field game, has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The estimate (3.5) is a law-of-large-numbers bound for the average of NNN processes that are not independent: all of them depend on the common noise W0W^0W0. The obvious argument, expanding the square and using independence, fails as stated; the cross terms vanish only conditionally on W0W^0W0, and only once one knows that every ξ∗,j\xi^{*,j}ξ∗,j is the same measurable functional of (Xj,W0,Wj)(\mathcal X^j,W^0,W^j)(Xj,W0,Wj). That is Lemma 3.2, a Yamada–Watanabe-type statement for a singular FBSDE with a conditional mean-field term, which needs strong uniqueness of the FBSDE in the class Hα×L2×L2([0,T−])\mathcal H_\alpha\times L^2\times L^2([0,T-])Hα​×L2×L2([0,T−]) and is the main technical step. The terminal constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 makes the backward component singular at TTT (YYY blows up like X/(T−t)X/(T-t)X/(T−t)), so standard Lipschitz FBSDE theory does not apply. Finally, the deviation ξ\xiξ is constrained only through a conditional second-moment bound MMM, and the comparison with the mean-field cost uses the optimality of ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i (Proposition 2.9) against μ∗\mu^*μ∗.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated on one probability space carrying all players, with players indexed by N\mathbb NN; the NNN-player game uses players i<Ni<Ni<N (the paper's 1,…,N1,\dots,N1,…,N, shifted by one). Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ and the processes are real valued. Choices made explicit:

  • Assumption 2.3 for every player is a hypothesis of every theorem: the paper states it "throughout" (p. 8), and the proof of Theorem 3.3 uses Propositions 2.8 and 2.9, which need it. Its constants κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega[0,T]×Ω; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞1/\lambda,1/\eta\in L^\infty1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
  • The equilibrium processes (Xi,Yi,Zi)(X^i,Y^i,Z^i)(Xi,Yi,Zi) are hypotheses: solutions of (2.3) for player iii's data in the class of Theorem 2.4. ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i is defined as Yi/(2ηi)Y^i/(2\eta^i)Yi/(2ηi), never through ϕ\phiϕ.
  • Conditioning on Xi=xi\mathcal X^i=x^iXi=xi is conditioning on σ(Xi)\sigma(\mathcal X^i)σ(Xi); every conclusion holds almost surely, i.e. for ν\nuν-a.e. xix^ixi. "ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M" is the a.s. inequality of conditional second moments, and MMM is assumed measurable.
  • ggg is quantified before NNN and iii. A statement in which ggg may depend on NNN is trivially true and is ruled out.
  • Filtrations are augmented by null sets. Each conditional expectation E[ ⋅∣Ft0]\mathbb E[\,\cdot\mid\mathcal F^0_t]E[⋅∣Ft0​] is evaluated through a progressive version of an integrable argument. BSDEs on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T.
  • Lemma 3.2's path spaces carry the product σ-algebra; its identities hold for each ttt almost surely.
  • The paper's bound on I2I_2I2​ is stated for ∣I2∣|I_2|∣I2​∣, which is what its Cauchy–Schwarz step gives and what the proof needs.

The development reuses the Itô-calculus definitions of Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, Itô integrals, BSDEs). Contributions useful beyond this mission: conditional independence given a common noise for functionals of independent inputs, a Yamada–Watanabe argument for FBSDEs, and conditional Cauchy–Schwarz bounds for time integrals. Proofs of any milestone, and of the facts from §2 they rely on, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • R. Almgren, N. Chriss, Optimal execution of portfolio transactions, J. Risk 3(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2001.041
  • M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains I: Under Downstream Competition No Buyer Audits the Common Supplier in Any EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands are routinely held responsible for the labour and environmental practices of their suppliers. A brand that is linked in public to a non-compliant supplier loses consumer willingness to pay, and firms answer this risk by auditing their suppliers. Supply networks are not trees, however: one supplier often serves several competing brands. Chen, Qi and Dawande (SSRN 2889889, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020) ask how the position of a supplier in such a network, and in particular its centrality (the number of buyers it serves), affects which suppliers get audited when buyers decide on their own, and when they audit jointly.

This mission formalizes the paper's answer for unilateral auditing by competing buyers (Sec. 4.2, Proposition 2). A companion mission treats joint auditing (Proposition 3).

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: an independent supplier SiS_iSi​ for each buyer BiB_iBi​, and a common supplier ScS_cSc​ that serves both. Each supplier complies with social-responsibility standards with probability e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1). In stage 1, buyer BiB_iBi​ chooses an auditing effort eii∈[0,1]e_{ii} \in [0,1]eii​∈[0,1] on SiS_iSi​ and eic∈[0,1]e_{ic} \in [0,1]eic​∈[0,1] on ScS_cSc​, and audits at most one of them: eii eic=0e_{ii}\,e_{ic} = 0eii​eic​=0. Auditing a supplier with effort x>0x > 0x>0 costs K+a2x2K + \tfrac a2 x^2K+2a​x2, with a fixed cost K≥0K \ge 0K≥0 and a>0a > 0a>0; effort 000 means no audit and costs nothing.

A non-compliant supplier that passes the audits is discovered in public with probability r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1]. Hence SiS_iSi​ causes damage to BiB_iBi​ with probability λI(eii)=r(1−e)(1−eii)\lambda_I(e_{ii}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{ii})λI​(eii​)=r(1−e)(1−eii​), and ScS_cSc​ causes damage to both buyers with probability λC(e1c,e2c)=r(1−e)(1−e1c)(1−e2c)\lambda_C(e_{1c},e_{2c}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{1c})(1-e_{2c})λC​(e1c​,e2c​)=r(1−e)(1−e1c​)(1−e2c​), independently. A buyer with at least one exposed supplier suffers the MWTP damage dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0: his demand intercept drops from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha - d_Mα−dM​. Each exposed supplier is then paid w^≥w\hat w \ge ww^≥w per unit instead of www, so a buyer with n∈{0,1,2}n \in \{0,1,2\}n∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers has unit cost (2−n)w+nw^(2-n)w + n\hat w(2−n)w+nw^.

In stage 2 the buyers compete in quantities with inverse demands pi=Ai−qi−βqi′p_i = A_i - q_i - \beta q_{i'}pi​=Ai​−qi​−βqi′​, β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] (Dixit 1979; Singh and Vives 1984). Its equilibrium profit for B1B_1B1​ is π1b(n1,n2)=q1∗(n1,n2)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2) = q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2, in closed form (Lemma 1). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s ex ante expected profit Π1b(e11,e1c;e22,e2c)\Pi^b_1(e_{11},e_{1c};e_{22},e_{2c})Π1b​(e11​,e1c​;e22​,e2c​) is the expectation of π1b\pi^b_1π1b​ over the eight damage outcomes, minus his audit costs; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is symmetric. Three conditions on (α,β,w,w^,dM)(\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M)(α,β,w,w^,dM​) (p. 8) make all stage-2 quantities positive.

An equilibrium is a profile (s1,s2)(s_1,s_2)(s1​,s2​), si=(eii,eic)s_i = (e_{ii},e_{ic})si​=(eii​,eic​), in which each buyer's strategy is a best response to the other's, with the tie-breaking rule of p. 10: a buyer who is indifferent between auditing and not auditing does not audit. Two explicit efforts, eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ (eq. (1)) and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ (eq. (2)), are rational functions of the parameters; e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ is a buyer's optimal effort on his independent supplier when the rival audits nobody, and eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ is the symmetric solution when both audit their independent suppliers.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

Assume β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] and e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1. There exist KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ such that for every K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, writing A=((eI∗,0),(eI∗,0))A = ((e^*_I,0),(e^*_I,0))A=((eI∗​,0),(eI∗​,0)), B1=((e^I,0),(0,0))B_1 = ((\hat e_I,0),(0,0))B1​=((e^I​,0),(0,0)), B2=((0,0),(e^I,0))B_2 = ((0,0),(\hat e_I,0))B2​=((0,0),(e^I​,0)), N=((0,0),(0,0))N = ((0,0),(0,0))N=((0,0),(0,0)),

EqSet(K)={{A}K<KuL,{A,B1,B2}KuL≤K<KuM,{B1,B2}KuM≤K<KuH,{N}K≥KuH.\mathrm{EqSet}(K) = \begin{cases} \{A\} & K < K^L_u,\\ \{A, B_1, B_2\} & K^L_u \le K < K^M_u,\\ \{B_1, B_2\} & K^M_u \le K < K^H_u,\\ \{N\} & K \ge K^H_u. \end{cases}EqSet(K)=⎩⎨⎧​{A}{A,B1​,B2​}{B1​,B2​}{N}​K<KuL​,KuL​≤K<KuM​,KuM​≤K<KuH​,K≥KuH​.​

In every equilibrium the common supplier receives zero effort.

Milestones

Lemma 1 (stage-2 equilibrium), the OA.2 expected-profit display, the best-response function (OA-9) with eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ as its values, the dominance inequality (OA-11), Lemmas OA5 and OA6 (the two kinds of auditing equilibria and their threshold ranges), the monotonicity facts (OA-14)–(OA-15), Lemma OA7 (the order of the thresholds) and Lemma OA8 (no equilibrium audits ScS_cSc​). The thresholds of the milestones are the explicit ones the proof defines in (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13).

Significance

The result separates network position from competition. Without downstream competition (β=0\beta = 0β=0, Proposition 1) there is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium in which one buyer audits the common supplier. With competition, Proposition 2 shows that the common supplier, the most central and therefore the most consequential source of risk, is never audited: auditing it would also protect the rival, who free-rides. This inefficiency is what motivates the paper's analysis of joint auditing (Proposition 3) and of social welfare (Proposition 4).

The result is proved in the paper, partly by omission: the e-companion leaves the proof of Lemma OA8 and the case K≥KuHK \ge K^H_uK≥KuH​ to the reader. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof would give a complete case analysis of a two-stage game with a discontinuous fixed cost, a constrained strategy set and a tie-breaking rule, and would check the paper's closed forms, several of which are printed with small slips.

Difficulty

The first-order conditions alone do not determine the equilibria. The fixed cost makes each buyer's payoff discontinuous at zero effort, so every candidate must be compared with no audit, and the best response is a choice among three regimes (audit SiS_iSi​, audit ScS_cSc​, audit nobody). Uniqueness claims therefore require excluding every profile in the constrained strategy set, including those where a buyer audits the common supplier, for which the paper gives no proof. The threshold comparisons KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ rest on monotonicity in the rival's effort, and the expected profit is multilinear in the four efforts (plus the quadratic audit costs), with coefficients that are differences of squared Cournot quantities whose signs depend on the p. 8 conditions.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace SupplierAudit.Competition. The source is the authors' accepted manuscript on SSRN (2889889); main-text printed pages equal PDF pages, and e-companion page ec kkk is PDF page 28+k28 + k28+k.

  • Parameters. A structure Params carries α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha, \beta, w, \hat w, d_M, e, r, aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a and the standing assumptions β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w \le \hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a > 0a>0 and the three conditions of p. 8. The theorems add β>0\beta > 0β>0 (competition, Sec. 4.2). KKK is a separate real argument and the goal quantifies over K≥0K \ge 0K≥0.
  • Stage 2. The general linear differentiated Cournot duopoly is its own definition (CournotDuopoly). The model's stage-2 profit is the closed form q1∗(n1,n2)2q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2 for all (n1,n2)(n_1,n_2)(n1​,n2​); Lemma 1 states that it is the game's unique equilibrium.
  • Expected profit. Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ is the eight-outcome expectation; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ with the roles exchanged. The grouped display of OA.2 is a milestone.
  • Strategies and equilibrium. Strategies are pairs in [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2 with product zero. Equilibria include the strict-improvement tie-breaking rule of p. 10; without it the goal is false at K=KuMK = K^M_uK=KuM​ and K=KuHK = K^H_uK=KuH​.
  • Interior efforts. The paper assumes equilibrium efforts lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) (p. 10; sufficient conditions in OA.1 are not given in closed form). This is encoded as the single hypothesis e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1 on the explicit formula (2), never as a hypothesis on an unknown equilibrium variable.
  • Thresholds. The goal states the thresholds existentially, as printed, with their order as part of the conclusion; the milestones use the explicit (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13). eI∗e^*_IeI∗​, e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and e11∗(⋅)e^*_{11}(\cdot)e11∗​(⋅) are the printed formulas, not argmaxes.
  • Printed slips, corrected. In (OA-11) the second prefactor should be β(w^−w)\beta(\hat w - w)β(w^−w); only the strict inequality is stated. The printed derivative of e11∗e^*_{11}e11∗​ in the proof of Lemma OA7 lacks a factor 1/a1/a1/a; only monotonicity is stated.

A formalization in which equilibrium is plain Nash, efforts range over all of R\mathbb RR, a buyer may audit both suppliers, or "interior" is a hypothesis on the equilibrium efforts themselves would state a different (and in places false or vacuous) theorem; these are ruled out by the definitions above. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is reusable infrastructure for linear Cournot duopolies and for finite expectations over independent Bernoulli events.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020 (accepted manuscript). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • A. Dixit, A Model of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003317
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier Evasion of a Buyer's Audit: Implications for Motivating Supplier Social and Environmental Responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 5: Dual Bounds from Active-Set Primal Solutions Lose Only O(kε), Independent of pResearch Paper

Motivation

Best-subset selection with ridge shrinkage, min⁡β12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22\min_\beta \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\|\beta\|_0+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2minβ​21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​, is a mixed-integer program that statisticians want to solve to certified optimality at the scale of modern data (ppp up to 10710^7107 features). Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152, Mathematical Programming 2022) built a branch-and-bound solver, L0BnB, whose node relaxations are solved in the primal space by active-set coordinate descent instead of by an interior-point method. Branch-and-bound prunes a node only with a valid dual bound, a certified lower bound on the node's relaxation value. A primal method returns an approximate minimizer, not such a bound, so the solver must turn an inexact primal point into a dual feasible point and needs to know how much is lost in doing so. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, its main theorem (Theorem 3).

Setting

Data are X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p with columns X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​, y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, and parameters λ0,λ2,M>0\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M>0λ0​,λ2​,M>0. The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and (t2+1)/2(t^2+1)/2(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. The penalty ψ(b)\psi(b)ψ(b) equals ψ1(b)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\psi_1(b)=2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ψ1​(b)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​) if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ2(b)=(λ0/M+λ2M)∣b∣\psi_2(b)=(\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M)|b|ψ2​(b)=(λ0​/M+λ2​M)∣b∣ otherwise. The reduced relaxation (5) is

min⁡β∈Rp F(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑iψ(βi)s.t.∥β∥∞≤M.\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ F(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i}\psi(\beta_i)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \|\beta\|_\infty\le M .β∈Rpmin​ F(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∑​ψ(βi​)s.t.∥β∥∞​≤M.

Throughout, the columns of XXX and yyy have unit ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm (the standing assumption of Section 3 of the paper).

Algorithm 2 (active-set coordinate descent) returns a point β^\hat\betaβ^​ in the box such that the set

V={i∉Supp⁡(β^): 0≠arg min⁡∣t∣≤MF(β^1,…,t,…,β^p)}V=\{i\notin\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta):\ 0\ne\operatorname*{arg\,min}_{|t|\le M}F(\hat\beta_1,\dots,t,\dots,\hat\beta_p)\}V={i∈/Supp(β^​): 0=∣t∣≤Margmin​F(β^​1​,…,t,…,β^​p​)}

is empty: no coordinate outside the support wants to move. Write r^=y−Xβ^\hat r=y-X\hat\betar^=y−Xβ^​, k=∥β^∥0k=\|\hat\beta\|_0k=∥β^​∥0​, and let β∗\beta^*β∗ be an optimal solution of (5) with r∗=y−Xβ∗r^*=y-X\beta^*r∗=y−Xβ∗. The primal gap is ϵ=∥X(β∗−β^)∥2\epsilon=\|X(\beta^*-\hat\beta)\|_2ϵ=∥X(β∗−β^​)∥2​.

The two duals of (5) (Theorem 2 of the paper) are, with v(α,γi)=[(α⊤Xi−γi)2/(4λ2)−λ0]++M∣γi∣v(\alpha,\gamma_i)=[(\alpha^\top X_i-\gamma_i)^2/(4\lambda_2)-\lambda_0]_++M|\gamma_i|v(α,γi​)=[(α⊤Xi​−γi​)2/(4λ2​)−λ0​]+​+M∣γi​∣,

h1(α,γ)=−12∥α∥22−α⊤y−∑iv(α,γi),h2(ρ,μ)=−12∥ρ∥22−ρ⊤y−M∥μ∥1,h_1(\alpha,\gamma)=-\tfrac12\|\alpha\|_2^2-\alpha^\top y-\textstyle\sum_i v(\alpha,\gamma_i),\qquad h_2(\rho,\mu)=-\tfrac12\|\rho\|_2^2-\rho^\top y-M\|\mu\|_1,h1​(α,γ)=−21​∥α∥22​−α⊤y−∑i​v(α,γi​),h2​(ρ,μ)=−21​∥ρ∥22​−ρ⊤y−M∥μ∥1​,

the latter under ∣ρ⊤Xi∣−μi≤λ0/M+λ2M|\rho^\top X_i|-\mu_i\le\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M∣ρ⊤Xi​∣−μi​≤λ0​/M+λ2​M. The dual variables built from β∗\beta^*β∗ are α∗=ρ∗=−r∗\alpha^*=\rho^*=-r^*α∗=ρ∗=−r∗, γi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](α∗⊤Xi−2Mλ2sign⁡(α∗⊤Xi))\gamma^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}(\alpha^{*\top}X_i-2M\lambda_2\operatorname{sign}(\alpha^{*\top}X_i))γi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(α∗⊤Xi​−2Mλ2​sign(α∗⊤Xi​)) and μi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](∣ρ∗⊤Xi∣−λ0/M−λ2M)\mu^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}(|\rho^{*\top}X_i|-\lambda_0/M-\lambda_2M)μi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(∣ρ∗⊤Xi​∣−λ0​/M−λ2​M). The dual points built from β^\hat\betaβ^​ are α^=ρ^=−r^\hat\alpha=\hat\rho=-\hat rα^=ρ^​=−r^, with γ^\hat\gammaγ^​ a maximizer of h1(α^,⋅)h_1(\hat\alpha,\cdot)h1​(α^,⋅) (25) and μ^\hat\muμ^​ a maximizer of h2(ρ^,⋅)h_2(\hat\rho,\cdot)h2​(ρ^​,⋅) under the constraints (27).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 with the proof's constants

If λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M, with ci=(2λ2)−1c_i=(2\lambda_2)^{-1}ci​=(2λ2​)−1 when ∣βi∗∣<M|\beta^*_i|<M∣βi∗​∣<M and ci=Mc_i=Mci​=M when ∣βi∗∣=M|\beta^*_i|=M∣βi∗​∣=M,

h1(α^,γ^) ≥ h1(α∗,γ∗)−2ϵ−12ϵ2−∑i∈Supp⁡(β^)(ciϵ+(4λ2)−1ϵ2).(55)h_1(\hat\alpha,\hat\gamma)\ \ge\ h_1(\alpha^*,\gamma^*)-2\epsilon-\tfrac12\epsilon^2-\sum_{i\in\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)}\big(c_i\epsilon+(4\lambda_2)^{-1}\epsilon^2\big).\qquad(55)h1​(α^,γ^​) ≥ h1​(α∗,γ∗)−2ϵ−21​ϵ2−i∈Supp(β^​)∑​(ci​ϵ+(4λ2​)−1ϵ2).(55)

If λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M,

h2(ρ^,μ^) ≥ h2(ρ∗,μ∗)−ϵ(2+Mk)−12ϵ2.(59)h_2(\hat\rho,\hat\mu)\ \ge\ h_2(\rho^*,\mu^*)-\epsilon(2+Mk)-\tfrac12\epsilon^2.\qquad(59)h2​(ρ^​,μ^​) ≥ h2​(ρ∗,μ∗)−ϵ(2+Mk)−21​ϵ2.(59)

The paper states these as −kO(ϵ)−kO(ϵ2)-kO(\epsilon)-kO(\epsilon^2)−kO(ϵ)−kO(ϵ2) (29) and −kO(ϵ)−O(ϵ2)-kO(\epsilon)-O(\epsilon^2)−kO(ϵ)−O(ϵ2) (30); the goal states the expressions its proof establishes.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the closed-form coordinate updates (14) and (15); Proposition 3, V={i∉Supp⁡(β^):∣⟨r^,Xi⟩∣>c(λ0,λ2,M)}V=\{i\notin\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta): |\langle\hat r,X_i\rangle|>c(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\}V={i∈/Supp(β^​):∣⟨r^,Xi​⟩∣>c(λ0​,λ2​,M)}; the bound ∥α∗∥2≤1\|\alpha^*\|_2\le1∥α∗∥2​≤1; Lemma 2, which bounds v(α^,γ^i)v(\hat\alpha,\hat\gamma_i)v(α^,γ^​i​) coordinate by coordinate and makes it vanish off the support; inequality (53); the closed form (28) of μ^\hat\muμ^​; the optimality conditions (58); the bound (57) ∣μ^i∣≤ϵ+∣μi∗∣|\hat\mu_i|\le\epsilon+|\mu^*_i|∣μ^​i​∣≤ϵ+∣μi∗​∣ on the support; and inequality (56).

Significance

The result. In both regimes the loss of the dual bound is controlled by the primal gap times the sparsity kkk of the iterate, with constants depending only on MMM and λ2\lambda_2λ2​; the number of features ppp does not enter. Since L0BnB seeks solutions with k≪pk\ll pk≪p, the cheap dual bound obtained from an inexact primal solution is nearly as good as the exact one, which is what allows pruning without an interior-point solve at every node. The paper notes that with plain coordinate descent in place of Algorithm 2 the same argument gives ppp in place of kkk.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked version of the main theorem with explicit constants, a formal model of what "output of an active-set method" means for the analysis, and reusable closed forms for the boxed soft-thresholding updates of an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​- or reverse-Huber-penalized box-constrained least squares problem.

Difficulty

The bound is not a consequence of weak duality alone: weak duality says only that each dual value is below the primal optimum, and says nothing about how far the constructed dual point is from the dual optimum. The obvious estimate, a Lipschitz bound on h1h_1h1​ or h2h_2h2​ summed over all coordinates, gives a loss proportional to ppp. Getting kkk instead requires showing that the dual contribution of every coordinate outside Supp⁡(β^)\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)Supp(β^​) vanishes exactly, which uses the emptiness of VVV through Proposition 3 and the closed forms (14)–(15) of one-dimensional nonsmooth box-constrained problems. On the support, the loss must be bounded using the structure of γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ and μ∗\mu^*μ∗ at coordinates where β∗\beta^*β∗ hits the box, which is where ci=Mc_i=Mci​=M and (58) enter.

Formalization scope

Indices are Fin p; norms are explicit sums; sign⁡\operatorname{sign}sign is Real.sign with sign⁡(0)=0\operatorname{sign}(0)=0sign(0)=0; [a]+[a]_+[a]+​ is max a 0. The unit norms of the columns of XXX and of yyy are hypotheses, never built into the definitions, and each theorem assumes only the ones it uses. β∗\beta^*β∗ is any point of the box minimizing FFF over the box. The output of Algorithm 2 is modelled by its two properties used in the paper: ∥β^∥∞≤M\|\hat\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β^​∥∞​≤M and V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅ ("0≠arg⁡min⁡0\ne\arg\min0=argmin" encoded as "000 is not a minimizer"); the iterations are not formalized. γ^\hat\gammaγ^​ and μ^\hat\muμ^​ are arbitrary maximizers satisfying (25) and (27). The dual variables (23)–(24) are defined by their formulas; their optimality (Theorem 2, a separate mission) is neither assumed nor needed, and the goal is an inequality between explicit numbers.

Instantiations of O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). (29) is stated as (55): kO(ϵ)+kO(ϵ2)kO(\epsilon)+kO(\epsilon^2)kO(ϵ)+kO(ϵ2) becomes 2ϵ+12ϵ2+∑i∈Supp⁡(β^)(ciϵ+(4λ2)−1ϵ2)2\epsilon+\tfrac12\epsilon^2+\sum_{i\in\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)}(c_i\epsilon+(4\lambda_2)^{-1}\epsilon^2)2ϵ+21​ϵ2+∑i∈Supp(β^​)​(ci​ϵ+(4λ2​)−1ϵ2) with ci∈{(2λ2)−1,M}c_i\in\{(2\lambda_2)^{-1},M\}ci​∈{(2λ2​)−1,M} decided by β∗\beta^*β∗. (30) is stated as (59): kO(ϵ)+O(ϵ2)kO(\epsilon)+O(\epsilon^2)kO(ϵ)+O(ϵ2) becomes ϵ(2+Mk)+12ϵ2\epsilon(2+Mk)+\tfrac12\epsilon^2ϵ(2+Mk)+21​ϵ2. The proof's final rearrangement of (29), which counts ∣β^i∣|\hat\beta_i|∣β^​i​∣ instead of ∣βi∗∣|\beta^*_i|∣βi∗​∣, is not used.

A formalization that takes β^=β∗\hat\beta=\beta^*β^​=β∗, γ^=γ∗\hat\gamma=\gamma^*γ^​=γ∗ or μ^=μ∗\hat\mu=\mu^*μ^​=μ∗, that drops the hypothesis V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅, or that replaces the constants by an existential "∃C\exists C∃C" would be trivial or a different statement; the goal quantifies over every optimal β∗\beta^*β∗, every box-feasible β^\hat\betaβ^​ with V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅ and every maximizer γ^\hat\gammaγ^​, μ^\hat\muμ^​, with the explicit constants above.

Needed infrastructure: one-dimensional convex minimization on an interval with piecewise penalties, Cauchy–Schwarz for finite sums, and first-order optimality conditions for box-constrained composite problems. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming 196 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • P. Tseng, Convergence of a block coordinate descent method for nondifferentiable minimization, J. Optim. Theory Appl. 109 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017501703105
  • J. Friedman, T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent, J. Stat. Softw. 33 (2010). https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v033.i01
18 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationDynamical SystemsFunctional Analysis+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Tikhonov Regularization of a Second Order Dynamical System with Hessian Driven Damping 3: If ∫ ε(t)/t dt = +∞, the Trajectory Converges Strongly in the Ergodic Sense to the Minimum-Norm MinimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Second order dynamical systems with vanishing damping are continuous-time models of accelerated first-order methods. The system x¨+αtx˙+∇g(x)=0\ddot x + \frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x + \nabla g(x) = 0x¨+tα​x˙+∇g(x)=0 is the continuous limit of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method (Su, Boyd, Candès 2016), and its trajectories converge weakly to a minimizer of a convex ggg when α>3\alpha>3α>3 (Attouch, Chbani, Peypouquet, Redont 2018). Two modifications of this system have been studied separately. A Hessian-driven damping term β∇2g(x)x˙\beta\nabla^2 g(x)\dot xβ∇2g(x)x˙ damps oscillations and keeps the fast rates (Attouch, Peypouquet, Redont 2016). A Tikhonov regularization term ϵ(t)x\epsilon(t)xϵ(t)x with ϵ(t)→0\epsilon(t)\to0ϵ(t)→0 selects one minimizer, the one of minimum norm, and can turn weak convergence into strong convergence (Attouch, Chbani, Riahi 2018).

Boţ, Csetnek and László (arXiv:1911.12845v2, Math. Program. 2021) study the system with both terms. Their results split into two regimes according to how fast ϵ\epsilonϵ decays. This mission covers the slow-decay regime of §4.1, where ∫+∞ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫+∞ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞ and the trajectory approaches the minimum-norm minimizer in a weighted average sense.

Timeline. 2016: Su, Boyd and Candès derive the continuous model of Nesterov's method. 2016: Attouch, Peypouquet and Redont add Hessian-driven damping (α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3, β>0\beta>0β>0) and prove fast rates and weak convergence. 2018: Attouch, Chbani and Riahi add Tikhonov regularization without Hessian damping and prove, among other results, strong ergodic convergence to the minimum-norm minimizer when ∫ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞. 2020: Boţ, Csetnek and László combine both terms and extend that ergodic result (their Theorem 4.2).

Setting

Let H\mathcal HH be a real Hilbert space, t0>0t_0>0t0​>0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, and u0,v0∈Hu_0,v_0\in\mathcal Hu0​,v0​∈H. The data satisfy the paper's General assumption:

  • g:H→Rg:\mathcal H\to\mathbb Rg:H→R is convex and twice Fréchet differentiable, its gradient ∇g\nabla g∇g is Lipschitz continuous on bounded sets, and argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\neq\emptysetargming=∅;
  • ϵ:[t0,+∞)→[0,+∞)\epsilon:[t_0,+\infty)\to[0,+\infty)ϵ:[t0​,+∞)→[0,+∞) is nonincreasing, of class C1C^1C1, and lim⁡t→+∞ϵ(t)=0\lim_{t\to+\infty}\epsilon(t)=0limt→+∞​ϵ(t)=0.

A global C2C^2C2-solution of system (5) is a twice continuously differentiable x:[t0,+∞)→Hx:[t_0,+\infty)\to\mathcal Hx:[t0​,+∞)→H with

x¨(t)+αtx˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0(t≥t0),x(t0)=u0, x˙(t0)=v0.\ddot x(t)+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x(t)+\beta\nabla^2 g(x(t))\dot x(t)+\nabla g(x(t))+\epsilon(t)x(t)=0\quad(t\ge t_0),\qquad x(t_0)=u_0,\ \dot x(t_0)=v_0 .x¨(t)+tα​x˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0(t≥t0​),x(t0​)=u0​, x˙(t0​)=v0​.

The set argmin⁡g\operatorname{argmin} gargming is nonempty, closed and convex, so it has a unique element of minimum norm, the minimum-norm minimizer x∗=argmin⁡{∥x∥:x∈argmin⁡g}x^*=\operatorname{argmin}\{\|x\|:x\in\operatorname{argmin} g\}x∗=argmin{∥x∥:x∈argming}. For ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 the Tikhonov approximation curve is

xϵ=argmin⁡x∈H(g(x)+ϵ2∥x∥2),x_\epsilon=\operatorname*{argmin}_{x\in\mathcal H}\Big(g(x)+\frac{\epsilon}{2}\|x\|^2\Big),xϵ​=x∈Hargmin​(g(x)+2ϵ​∥x∥2),

the unique minimizer of a strongly convex function. Finally, hx∗(t)=12∥x(t)−x∗∥2h_{x^*}(t)=\tfrac12\|x(t)-x^*\|^2hx∗​(t)=21​∥x(t)−x∗∥2 measures the distance of the trajectory to x∗x^*x∗, with derivative h˙x∗(t)=⟨x˙(t),x(t)−x∗⟩\dot h_{x^*}(t)=\langle\dot x(t),x(t)-x^*\rangleh˙x∗​(t)=⟨x˙(t),x(t)−x∗⟩.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 18)

If ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)t dt=+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\frac{\epsilon(t)}{t}\,dt=+\infty∫t0​+∞​tϵ(t)​dt=+∞ and α>0\alpha>0α>0, then every global C2C^2C2-solution satisfies

lim⁡t→+∞1∫t0tϵ(s)s ds∫t0tϵ(s)s∥x(s)−x∗∥2 ds=0andlim inf⁡t→+∞∥x(t)−x∗∥=0.\lim_{t\to+\infty}\frac{1}{\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\,ds}\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\|x(s)-x^*\|^2\,ds=0 \qquad\text{and}\qquad \liminf_{t\to+\infty}\|x(t)-x^*\|=0 .t→+∞lim​∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​ds1​∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​∥x(s)−x∗∥2ds=0andt→+∞liminf​∥x(t)−x∗∥=0.

No rate and no constant is asserted, so the goal does not depend on any particular choice of ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1 (p. 16): for α>0\alpha>0α>0, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, the velocity is bounded, 1t∥x˙(t)∥2∈L1([t0,+∞))\frac1t\|\dot x(t)\|^2\in L^1([t_0,+\infty))t1​∥x˙(t)∥2∈L1([t0​,+∞)), and sup⁡t≥t01t∣h˙x∗(t)∣<+∞\sup_{t\ge t_0}\frac1t|\dot h_{x^*}(t)|<+\inftysupt≥t0​​t1​∣h˙x∗​(t)∣<+∞ for every x∗∈argmin⁡gx^*\in\operatorname{argmin} gx∗∈argming.
  2. §4, p. 18: ∥xϵ∥≤∥x∗∥\|x_\epsilon\|\le\|x^*\|∥xϵ​∥≤∥x∗∥ for every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0.
  3. §4, p. 18: lim⁡ϵ→0+xϵ=x∗\lim_{\epsilon\to0^+}x_\epsilon=x^*limϵ→0+​xϵ​=x∗ (stated in the paper as well known).
  4. (46) (p. 20): under the hypotheses of Theorem 4.2 there is C>0C>0C>0 with
∫t0tϵ(s)s(hx∗(s)−12(∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)∥2))ds≤Cfor every t≥t0.\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\Big(h_{x^*}(s)-\frac12\big(\|x^*\|^2-\|x_{\epsilon(s)}\|^2\big)\Big)ds\le C\quad\text{for every }t\ge t_0 .∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​(hx∗​(s)−21​(∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)​∥2))ds≤Cfor every t≥t0​.

Significance

The result shows that slow Tikhonov regularization still selects the minimum-norm minimizer when Hessian damping is added: the weighted time average of ∥x(t)−x∗∥2\|x(t)-x^*\|^2∥x(t)−x∗∥2 tends to zero and the trajectory comes arbitrarily close to x∗x^*x∗ infinitely often. The hypothesis is only α>0\alpha>0α>0, well below the threshold α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3 that the paper needs for its fast rates, and no growth condition on ϵ\epsilonϵ beyond the divergence of ∫ϵ(t)/t dt\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt∫ϵ(t)/tdt is imposed. It complements Theorem 4.4 of the same paper (a separate mission), which reaches full strong convergence under fast decay, ∫ϵ(t)/t dt<+∞\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt<+\infty∫ϵ(t)/tdt<+∞, plus further conditions.

On the formal side, the theorem and its milestones are proved in the paper and in the cited literature, but none of them has a machine-checked proof. The work splits into an energy estimate for a nonautonomous second order ODE in a Hilbert space (Lemma 4.1), two facts about the Tikhonov curve that underlie the whole theory of Tikhonov regularization of convex problems (milestones 2 and 3), an integrated differential inequality (46), and a l'Hospital-type averaging step. The Tikhonov-curve facts are reusable for any formal treatment of viscosity selection and minimum-norm solutions.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt, a Lyapunov function that decreases along the trajectory and controls ∥x(t)−x∗∥\|x(t)-x^*\|∥x(t)−x∗∥, fails because x∗x^*x∗ is not a stationary point of the perturbed system: ∇g(x∗)+ϵ(t)x∗=ϵ(t)x∗≠0\nabla g(x^*)+\epsilon(t)x^*=\epsilon(t)x^*\neq0∇g(x∗)+ϵ(t)x∗=ϵ(t)x∗=0 in general. The distance to x∗x^*x∗ therefore need not decrease, and pointwise convergence is not available under the slow-decay hypothesis alone. The comparison point has to move along the Tikhonov curve xϵ(t)x_{\epsilon(t)}xϵ(t)​, whose convergence to x∗x^*x∗ comes without a rate. The available bound controls only a weighted integral of hx∗h_{x^*}hx∗​ corrected by ∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)∥2\|x^*\|^2-\|x_{\epsilon(s)}\|^2∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)​∥2, so the passage from (46) to the goal needs both xϵ(t)→x∗x_{\epsilon(t)}\to x^*xϵ(t)​→x∗ and the divergence of the weight. In the formal setting the Tikhonov-curve limit is itself a nontrivial weak-compactness argument in a Hilbert space, which the paper does not spell out.

Formalization scope

  • H\mathcal HH is a real Hilbert space (InnerProductSpace ℝ H, CompleteSpace H). ∇g\nabla g∇g is gradient g, and ∇2g(x)v\nabla^2 g(x)v∇2g(x)v is the Fréchet derivative of gradient g at xxx applied to vvv. "Twice Fréchet differentiable" means ggg and ∇g\nabla g∇g are differentiable; Lipschitz continuity on bounded sets is stated on every closed ball around the origin.
  • Trajectories are maps R→H\mathbb R\to\mathcal HR→H with explicit velocity and acceleration maps; derivatives are taken within [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) (one-sided at t0t_0t0​), the acceleration is continuous there, and values before t0t_0t0​ are irrelevant. The same holds for ϵ\epsilonϵ and its derivative.
  • Every theorem is stated for every global C2C^2C2-solution of (5). Existence and uniqueness of the solution is Theorem 2.1 of the paper, a milestone of the first mission of this series, so the hypothesis is not vacuous. The paper's standing α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3 is replaced by each statement's own hypothesis α>0\alpha>0α>0.
  • The minimum-norm minimizer and the Tikhonov points are predicates on a candidate point; where the curve ϵ↦xϵ\epsilon\mapsto x_\epsilonϵ↦xϵ​ is needed, a selection that minimizes g+ϵ2∥⋅∥2g+\frac\epsilon2\|\cdot\|^2g+2ϵ​∥⋅∥2 for every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 is a hypothesis.
  • ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫t0​+∞​ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞ is stated as divergence of T↦∫t0Tϵ(t)/t dtT\mapsto\int_{t_0}^T\epsilon(t)/t\,dtT↦∫t0​T​ϵ(t)/tdt, never as an equation for a Bochner integral, which would take the value 000 on a non-integrable function. Likewise, lim inf⁡∥x(t)−x∗∥=0\liminf\|x(t)-x^*\|=0liminf∥x(t)−x∗∥=0 is stated as "for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, ∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ\|x(t)-x^*\|<\delta∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ for arbitrarily large ttt", not through Filter.liminf, whose value on an unbounded function is a default. sup⁡<+∞\sup<+\inftysup<+∞ is boundedness from above of the image of [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞), and L1L^1L1 membership is integrability on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞).
  • Definitions needed: argmin, the minimum-norm minimizer, Tikhonov points, the General assumption, the solution predicate for (5), and hx∗h_{x^*}hx∗​, h˙x∗\dot h_{x^*}h˙x∗​. These duplicate objects of the other two missions of the series, which are drafted independently.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the Tikhonov-curve facts in Mathlib generality, the energy estimate of Lemma 4.1, a continuous l'Hospital/Cesàro lemma for weighted averages, and the goal itself.

Selected references

  • R.I. Boţ, E.R. Csetnek, S.C. László, Tikhonov regularization of a second order dynamical system with Hessian driven damping, Mathematical Programming, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01528-8 (cited from arXiv:1911.12845v2). https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.12845
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, H. Riahi, Combining fast inertial dynamics for convex optimization with Tikhonov regularization, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 457(2), 1065–1094, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01973
  • H. Attouch, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convex optimization via inertial dynamics with Hessian driven damping, Journal of Differential Equations 261(10), 5734–5783, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07113
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convergence of inertial dynamics and algorithms with asymptotic vanishing viscosity, Mathematical Programming 168, 123–175, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04782
  • W. Su, S. Boyd, E.J. Candès, A differential equation for modeling Nesterov's accelerated gradient method: theory and insights, Journal of Machine Learning Research 17(153), 1–43, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.01243
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment III: With a Fixed Cost of Quality, the Encroaching Manufacturer Does Not Differentiate Quality Across ChannelsResearch Paper

Why channel quality matters

A manufacturer that sells through a retailer can also open a direct sales channel. The direct channel lets the manufacturer reach consumers, but it competes with the retailer, whose orders generate wholesale revenue. The manufacturer can further choose whether the two channels carry products of the same quality. These decisions interact because quality changes both consumer demand and the retailer's response. Ha, Long and Nasiry study this interaction in a sequential supply-chain game. Their fixed-quality-cost extension asks what happens when a high-quality design can be converted into a lower-quality variant without paying a separate production cost for each unit (Ha, Long and Nasiry, §6.2).

The main result is specific to this cost regime. With a cost per unit that rises with quality, different products can be attractive across the channels; with the paper's one-time cost of creating quality, Proposition 6(i) asserts equal qualities when the direct channel makes positive sales. This mission targets that fixed-cost proposition in the authors' manuscript, including its game and the reduced-profit claims used in the e-Companion (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36–37).

The sequential market

The market has mass one of consumers, indexed by a taste for quality θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A consumer buying a product of quality v>0v>0v>0 at price ppp receives surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p. The manufacturer offers quality u>0u>0u>0 through her own direct channel and quality tu>0tu>0tu>0 through the retailer. The ratio ttt therefore records which channel has higher quality. The manufacturer pays a fixed cost of quality max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, with k>0k>0k>0, and a direct selling cost c≥0c\ge0c≥0 per unit. The retailer has zero selling cost. Unlike a unit production cost, this fixed cost is paid once and does not scale with either channel's quantity (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 7–8, 20).

The manufacturer first chooses wholesale price www and qualities u,tuu,tuu,tu. After observing them, the retailer chooses its order qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0. The manufacturer observes that order and chooses her direct quantity qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. When 0<t≤10<t\le10<t≤1, market-clearing prices are

pM=u(1−qM−tqR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR).p_M=u(1-q_M-tq_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R).pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​).

When t≥1t\ge1t≥1, the retailer's product has higher quality, and the corresponding prices are

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−uqM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-uq_M.pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The manufacturer receives wholesale revenue plus direct-channel revenue, less the direct selling cost and fixed quality cost. The retailer receives its retail margin times qRq_RqR​. Encroachment means qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 on the equilibrium path, rather than the mere existence of a direct channel (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 8, 11, 15, 36).

Formalization targets

Equal quality under encroachment

For a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ\sigmaσ of the fixed-cost game, the goal is Proposition 6(i):

qM(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.q_M(\sigma)>0\quad\Longrightarrow\quad t(\sigma)=1.qM​(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.

The formal statement assumes c>0c>0c>0. At c=0c=0c=0, the high-direct-quality reduced profit is independent of ttt, so the printed claim fails to force t=1t=1t=1; this is a substantive qualification of the manuscript's standing c≥0c\ge0c≥0 convention. The goal concerns the complete game, with contingent actions at every decision node, rather than only the closed-form optimization problem (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36).

Subgame and optimization claims

The milestone list follows the authors' two quality regimes. The e-Companion gives best responses, wholesale prices, and reduced profits in each regime. In the high-direct-quality regime, Claim 3 concludes that an optimum with positive direct sales has t=1t=1t=1. In the low-direct-quality regime, Lemma 2 concludes that an optimum either has t=1t=1t=1 or lies at no encroachment. The latter alternative is outside the strict encroachment-feasible set used by the Lean milestone. Footnote 2 supplies a one-variable sign inequality used in the analysis of that regime (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

What the result gives

Proposition 6(i) determines the manufacturer's quality choice conditional on active direct sales: both channels carry quality uuu. It narrows the set of equilibrium outcomes that the fixed-cost model can support and distinguishes the role of a one-time design cost from the paper's earlier variable-cost model. The paper states a separate profit comparison in Proposition 6(ii); this mission does not formalize it because the e-Companion omits its proof and the fixed-cost no-encroachment benchmark for that comparison is not stated (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 37).

A complete Lean development would connect the reduced-profit calculations on page 36 to subgame-perfect play in the three-stage game, and establish the optimization claims over their stated feasible sets. The definitions of two-quality inverse demand, contingent strategies, and nodewise optimality are reusable for related channel games. The goal and milestones here are draft statements, without machine-checked proofs of their economic conclusions.

Central difficulty

The manufacturer chooses quality and wholesale price before the retailer's order, yet the direct quantity is chosen only after that order. Consequently, the retailer's payoff depends on the manufacturer's continuation response, and the first-stage choice must account for both later decisions. The reduced profit also changes at t=1t=1t=1, where the higher-quality channel switches. A calculation for one regime alone does not establish the full-game claim. The strict qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 region matters: its boundary represents no encroachment and supports a different alternative in Lemma 2 (Ha, Long and Nasiry, p. 36).

Formalization scope

Lean uses real wholesale prices and qualities, positive uuu and ttt, and nonnegative quantities. Wholesale price has no sign restriction in the manuscript. The market has unit size and the retailer's selling cost is zero. The two inverse-demand expressions are applied to all nonnegative quantities, following the paper's algebraic game model. A profile contains a stage-one action, a retailer order rule for every observed (w,u,t)(w,u,t)(w,u,t), and a direct-quantity rule for every observed (w,u,t,qR)(w,u,t,q_R)(w,u,t,qR​). Subgame perfection requires feasible best replies at every such history, including histories off the equilibrium path. Fixed cost is max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, paid once, while cqMcq_McqM​ is a per-unit selling cost.

The reduced profits ΠHi\Pi_{\mathrm{Hi}}ΠHi​ and ΠLo\Pi_{\mathrm{Lo}}ΠLo​ are used only on their respective open encroachment-feasible domains, where the displayed denominators are positive. Claim 3 is stated for a joint maximizer in (t,u)(t,u)(t,u); keeping uuu fixed while moving to t=1t=1t=1 can leave that feasible set. Lemma 2 excludes the no-encroachment boundary in its Lean statement. Neither reduced profit replaces the full-game payoff in the goal. Contributions that connect the subgame formulas to arbitrary equilibrium profiles, prove the sign inequality, or establish the two optimization results are within scope (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long and J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, authors' manuscript, SSRN 3970373, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. Manuscript. Journal DOI.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment II: Under Quality Differentiation the Direct Channel Carries the High-Quality Product, the Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers while continuing to supply independent retailers, a practice known as supply chain encroachment. The direct channel competes with the retailer for the same consumers, and the conventional advice for easing that conflict is to sell different products in the two channels. Ha, Long and Nasiry (MSOM 18(2), 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) study this advice in a model where the manufacturer chooses product quality herself. This mission formalizes their Section 5: when the manufacturer may offer one quality directly and another through the retailer, which channel gets the better product, when is differentiation worth it, and who gains from encroachment.

The model builds on two lines of work. With exogenous quality, Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that encroachment can benefit both firms, through a lower wholesale price. Vertical differentiation with a convex cost of quality goes back to Mussa and Rosen (JET, 1978), Moorthy (1988) and Motta (1993), where differentiation lets firms segment the market. The paper combines the two and finds that, once quality is endogenous, the retailer never gains.

Setting

A market of size 111 consists of consumers with types θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; a consumer of type θ\thetaθ obtains surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p from a product of quality vvv at price ppp. A manufacturer sells a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 through her direct channel and a product of quality tututu, with quality ratio t>0t>0t>0, through a retailer. Producing one unit of quality vvv costs kv2kv^2kv2 (k>0k>0k>0); every unit sold directly costs a further direct selling cost c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

With quantities qMq_MqM​ (direct) and qRq_RqR​ (retailer), the market-clearing prices are, for t≤1t\le 1t≤1 (direct channel carries the higher quality),

pM=u(1−qM−t qR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR),p_M=u(1-q_M-t\,q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R),pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​),

and for t>1t>1t>1 (retailer carries the higher quality)

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−u qM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-u\,q_M .pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The profits are ΠR=(pR−w)qR\Pi_R=(p_R-w)q_RΠR​=(pR​−w)qR​ and ΠM=(w−k(tu)2)qR+(pM−c−ku2)qM\Pi_M=(w-k(tu)^2)q_R+(p_M-c-ku^2)q_MΠM​=(w−k(tu)2)qR​+(pM​−c−ku2)qM​.

The game has three stages: (i) the manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www, the quality uuu and the ratio ttt; (ii) the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0; (iii) the manufacturer chooses qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. Solutions are subgame-perfect equilibria. The manufacturer encroaches when qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 on the equilibrium path. Fixing t=1t=1t=1 gives the uniform-quality game of §4.1. The benchmark of §3.2 has no direct channel; its equilibrium profits are ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\frac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​ and ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\frac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4(ii)

In every subgame-perfect equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0,

ΠM∗>154k=ΠMNandΠR∗<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^*_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^*_R<\frac{1}{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠM∗​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠR∗​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement makes no assumption on which quality the manufacturer chooses, on the size of ccc or on the form of the equilibrium; the constants are the benchmark's.

Milestones

  1. The benchmark equilibrium (uN=13ku^N=\frac1{3k}uN=3k1​, wN=29kw^N=\frac2{9k}wN=9k2​, qRN=16q^N_R=\frac16qRN​=61​ and the two profits), p. 9.
  2. The quantity subgame (7) for t<1t<1t<1, p. 16, and the reduced profit ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) obtained by optimizing www, p. 29.
  3. Lemma 1(i)–(ii): the manufacturer's optimal ratio t(u)t(u)t(u) for given uuu, when the retailer's product is lower (t≤1t\le1t≤1) or higher (t≥1t\ge1t≥1) quality.
  4. Claim 1 and Lemma 1(iii): for c<112kc<\frac1{12k}c<12k1​ the profits of the two kinds of differentiation cross exactly once in uuu.
  5. Proposition 3: under encroachment, t∗≤1t^*\le1t∗≤1.
  6. Proposition 1(iii) in the uniform-quality game.
  7. Claim 2 and Proposition 4(i): thresholds 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ such that the manufacturer differentiates (t∗<1t^*<1t∗<1) for c<c1c<c_1c<c1​, uses uniform quality for c1<c<c2c_1<c<c_2c1​<c<c2​, and does not encroach for c>c2c>c_2c>c2​.

Companions

The §6.1 benchmark in which both qualities go through the retailer (ΠMN2=150k\Pi^{N2}_M=\frac1{50k}ΠMN2​=50k1​, ΠRN2=1100k\Pi^{N2}_R=\frac1{100k}ΠRN2​=100k1​), Proposition 5 (the win–lose outcome against that benchmark), and the existence of an equilibrium. The threshold milestones assert existence for each cost, so their conclusions have an equilibrium to describe.

Significance

Proposition 4(ii) says that letting the manufacturer differentiate quality across channels does not change who wins: the manufacturer still gains from encroachment and the retailer still loses, although one might expect the retailer to benefit from not facing an identical product. Proposition 3 adds that differentiation, when used, puts the higher quality in the direct channel, and Proposition 4(i) shows that for intermediate selling costs the manufacturer prefers no differentiation at all, contrary to the monopoly intuition that segmentation always pays. Proposition 5 shows the conclusion persists against a benchmark in which the retailer already carries a two-product line.

The results are proved in the paper, in part with numerical verification (e.g. the bounds on u^\hat uu^ in the proof of Proposition 3, and the location of c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​). None of them has been machine-checked. A formal development would turn these numerical steps into proofs and would leave a reusable, explicit model of a three-stage Stackelberg game with a vertically differentiated linear demand.

Difficulty

The equilibrium analysis is not a single concave program. Backward induction produces closed forms only on regions (the retailer's order must leave the manufacturer a positive direct quantity, and the retailer's quantity must stay positive), and the manufacturer's stage-1 problem is a comparison across these regions and across t<1t<1t<1, t=1t=1t=1 and t>1t>1t>1. The profit of low-quality encroachment, ΠML(u)\Pi^L_M(u)ΠML​(u), involves a square root in uuu, and the paper controls its critical points by a case analysis on polynomial derivatives with numerically located crossing points (pp. 39–40). The thresholds c1≈0.0973/kc_1\approx0.0973/kc1​≈0.0973/k and c2≈0.1019/kc_2\approx0.1019/kc2​≈0.1019/k are defined implicitly by the equality of maximized profits. Comparing the equilibrium profit with 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​ therefore requires bounding a maximum taken over a piecewise-defined family, not evaluating one formula.

Formalization scope

The game is defined in QualityEncroach.Differ.Game. Quantities are restricted to be nonnegative; the wholesale price is unrestricted, as in the paper; qualities satisfy u>0u>0u>0, t>0t>0t>0. The price formulas are used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper; the t>1t>1t>1 case, which the paper says "can be derived similarly", is that derivation. The equilibrium notion is subgame perfection written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, on and off the path. Benchmark profits appear as the constants 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​, 1108k\frac1{108k}108k1​ (and 150k\frac1{50k}50k1​, 1100k\frac1{100k}100k1​); separate items derive them from the benchmark games. Threshold statements give c2>0c_2>0c2​>0 and 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ depending only on kkk, assert equilibrium existence at every c≥0c\ge0c≥0, and say nothing at c=c2c=c_2c=c2​, where the paper's statements disagree. Lemma 1 and Claim 1 are stated about the paper's reduced-form profits, defined by the displayed formulas in QualityEncroach.Differ.Reduced; the item reduced_profit_high links ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) for t≤1t\le1t≤1 to the game. Claim 1 retains c=0c=0c=0 and quantifies only over positive qualities, so no reduced form is evaluated at u=0u=0u=0.

The goal is about subgame-perfect equilibria of the game, not about the reduced forms: a proof that only compares closed-form profits does not prove it without the milestones linking those forms to equilibrium play. The goal is not vacuous only if an equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 exists; the companion spe_exists asserts existence.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the benchmark and the quantity subgame are routine calculus on quadratics; Lemma 1(i)–(ii) are one-variable sign analyses; Claim 1, Lemma 1(iii), Proposition 3 and the thresholds require the case analyses of the appendix.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0228
  • M. Mussa, S. Rosen, Monopoly and Product Quality, Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(78)90085-6
  • K. S. Moorthy, Product and Price Competition in a Duopoly, Marketing Science 7(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.7.2.141
  • M. Motta, Endogenous Quality Choice: Price vs. Quantity Competition, Journal of Industrial Economics 41(2), 1993. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950430
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment I: With Endogenous Uniform Quality, an Encroaching Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer Always LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers through their own stores and websites, alongside the independent retailers that carry their products. This practice is called supply chain encroachment. Retailers routinely resent it, and examples range from beer brewers to personal computers. Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that, when product quality is fixed, encroachment can benefit the retailer too: the manufacturer lowers the wholesale price to keep the retailer channel competitive, and this wholesale price effect can outweigh the lost sales.

Ha, Long and Nasiry (Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) ask what changes when the manufacturer also chooses product quality. Their first result, formalized in this mission, is that the win–win outcome disappears: with endogenous quality and a single product sold in both channels, encroachment always helps the manufacturer and always hurts the retailer.

Setting

Consumers have a quality sensitivity θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and a consumer who buys a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 at price ppp obtains surplus θu−p\theta u-pθu−p. When one product of quality uuu is sold in total quantity qqq, the market-clearing price is p=u(1−q)p=u(1-q)p=u(1−q). The manufacturer's unit production cost for quality uuu is ku2ku^2ku2, with k>0k>0k>0 the cost of quality. Selling one unit through her own direct channel costs her an additional c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

Benchmark (no direct channel). The manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www and a quality uuu; after observing them the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0. The profits are

ΠRN=(u(1−qR)−w) qR,ΠMN=(w−ku2) qR.\Pi^N_R=(u(1-q_R)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^N_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R .ΠRN​=(u(1−qR​)−w)qR​,ΠMN​=(w−ku2)qR​.

Encroachment with uniform quality. The game has three stages and perfect information:

  1. the manufacturer chooses www and uuu;
  2. the retailer, having observed them, orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0;
  3. the manufacturer, having observed qRq_RqR​, sells qM≥0q_M\ge 0qM​≥0 directly.

Both channels sell the same product at the price u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​), so

ΠRU=(u(1−qR−qM)−w) qR,ΠMU=(w−ku2) qR+(u−uqM−uqR−c−ku2) qM.\Pi^U_R=(u(1-q_R-q_M)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^U_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R+(u-uq_M-uq_R-c-ku^2)\,q_M .ΠRU​=(u(1−qR​−qM​)−w)qR​,ΠMU​=(w−ku2)qR​+(u−uqM​−uqR​−c−ku2)qM​.

The solution concept is subgame perfect equilibrium: at every decision node, on or off the equilibrium path, the mover's rule picks a feasible action that no feasible alternative beats. The manufacturer encroaches when qMU>0q^U_M>0qMU​>0 on the equilibrium path.

In the Lean development these are the structures Outcome and Profile, the payoffs retailerPayoff and mfrPayoff k c, and the predicate IsSPE k c σ of the definition QualityEncroach.Uniform.Game, with the benchmark counterparts BenchProfile and IsBenchSPE k τ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1(iii)

In the benchmark, every equilibrium has uN=13ku^N=\tfrac1{3k}uN=3k1​ and profits ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\tfrac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​, ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\tfrac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​. The goal states that, for every k>0k>0k>0, c≥0c\ge0c≥0 and every subgame perfect equilibrium of the encroachment game in which the manufacturer encroaches,

ΠMU>154k=ΠMNandΠRU<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^U_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^U_R<\frac1{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠMU​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠRU​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement fixes no threshold value, and it holds for every equilibrium.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's backward induction:

  1. the benchmark subgame, equations (1)–(2), and the benchmark equilibrium (§3.2);
  2. the manufacturer's stage-3 best response qMU(qR,w,u)=(12−qR2−c2u−ku2)+q^U_M(q_R,w,u)=\big(\tfrac12-\tfrac{q_R}{2}-\tfrac{c}{2u}-\tfrac{ku}{2}\big)^+qMU​(qR​,w,u)=(21​−2qR​​−2uc​−2ku​)+;
  3. the quantity subgame (3) and the optimal wholesale price and profits (4)–(5) for a given quality;
  4. the three-case optimal profit ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) of the Appendix, covering three regimes: the manufacturer sells directly, the retailer deters direct sales exactly, or the direct channel is idle;
  5. Proposition 1(i): there is a threshold c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 such that
c<c~ ⇒ qMU>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU=0.c<\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M>0,\qquad c>\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M=0 .c<c~ ⇒ qMU​>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU​=0.

Further statements

The mission also contains:

  • condition (6) for a fixed quality, together with the identity wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6w^N(u)-w^U(u)=c/6wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6;
  • Proposition 1(ii): the equilibrium quality first rises and then falls in ccc, and it is distorted upward exactly below a threshold cuc^ucu;
  • Corollary 1: c~\tilde cc~ is decreasing in kkk, and for c>0c>0c>0 the retailer's profit under encroachment is increasing in kkk;
  • existence of a subgame perfect equilibrium.

Significance

The result separates two regimes that look alike. With quality fixed, a retailer facing an encroaching manufacturer is better off exactly when condition (6) holds. With quality chosen by the manufacturer, that region disappears. The manufacturer distorts quality, upward when ccc is small and downward when it is large, and so relies less on the wholesale price to steer the retailer's order. The retailer then loses in every equilibrium in which encroachment occurs. The paper's later sections (quality differentiation, a fixed cost of quality, no quality commitment, a general cost function) all measure against this base case.

The result is proved on paper, by backward induction with closed-form profits, an envelope-theorem convexity argument in ccc, and a numerically located threshold c~≈0.1019/k\tilde c\approx0.1019/kc~≈0.1019/k. None of it is formalized. A machine-checked proof would certify:

  • the closed-form reduced profits;
  • the case analysis of the Appendix, whose boundaries are given by roots of polynomial equations in uuu;
  • the claim, stated in the paper only for the reduced problem, that it holds for every subgame perfect equilibrium of the game.

Difficulty

Each step of the backward induction is a one-variable concave problem, but the steps do not compose into a single smooth problem. The retailer's best order depends on whether his order leaves room for direct sales. As a result the manufacturer's profit given uuu is the piecewise function ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u). Its middle piece describes a retailer who orders exactly enough to keep the manufacturer out, and that piece is not a stationary point of anything. The global optimum over uuu switches between the first piece and the other two at a threshold c~\tilde cc~ that the paper locates only numerically.

The goal compares the optimum of this piecewise problem with a constant, for every equilibrium. The natural first idea, comparing the reduced profits with the benchmark ones pointwise in uuu, does not work for the retailer: for a fixed quality his encroachment profit 2c2/(9u)2c^2/(9u)2c2/(9u) exceeds the benchmark profit u(1−ku)2/16u(1-ku)^2/16u(1−ku)2/16 on part of the range, which is exactly condition (6). The comparison has to use the quality the manufacturer actually chooses, and that quality is known only through the case analysis above.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The following conventions are fixed:

  • the wholesale price ranges over all of R\mathbb RR, since the paper states no sign restriction;
  • qualities are u>0u>0u>0 and quantities qR,qM≥0q_R,q_M\ge0qR​,qM​≥0;
  • the inverse demand u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​) is used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper.

Subgame perfection is written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, which in this three-stage game with perfect information is subgame perfection. It constrains the retailer's rule at every (w,u)(w,u)(w,u) and the manufacturer's stage-3 rule at every (w,u,qR)(w,u,q_R)(w,u,qR​), not only on the path.

The benchmark profits in the goal are the paper's constants 1/(54k)1/(54k)1/(54k) and 1/(108k)1/(108k)1/(108k). The milestone benchmark_equilibrium proves that a benchmark equilibrium exists and that these are its profits.

Two formalizations would trivialize the goal, and both are ruled out:

  • stating the goal about the reduced form ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​ at a maximizer of ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) instead of about the game would assume the backward induction;
  • dropping the off-path optimality conditions would let the goal range over non-equilibria.

The encroachment threshold of Proposition 1(i) is stated in both directions, with c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 chosen before ccc. The boundary point c=c~c=\tilde cc=c~ is left open, because the paper's statements disagree there.

The closed forms qRNq^N_RqRN​, wNw^NwN, ΠMN\Pi^N_MΠMN​, ΠRN\Pi^N_RΠRN​, qMUq^U_MqMU​, qRUq^U_RqRU​, wUw^UwU, ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​, ΠRU\Pi^U_RΠRU​, ΠMUZ\Pi^{UZ}_MΠMUZ​ and ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ are definitions that cite their page. Every statement that uses one with uuu in a denominator assumes u>0u>0u>0.

A complete development needs:

  • concave quadratic maximization;
  • a piecewise-concave best-response lemma;
  • the envelope argument of the Appendix, or a direct polynomial comparison;
  • some way to certify the numerically located thresholds, for which interval arithmetic or explicit polynomial sign certificates are both acceptable.

The game definitions are reusable for the other missions of this series, which keep this cost structure. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal that bypass the threshold computation.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5): 651–659, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 2: The Shadow of γ1 + γ2 in ν Is the Shadow of γ1 Plus the Shadow of γ2 in What RemainsResearch Paper

Motivation

The martingale optimal transport problem asks for a coupling of two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR that is the law of a one-step martingale and minimizes an expected cost. It arises in robust finance, where the marginals are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two dates implied by option prices, and model-independent price bounds for exotic options are the extreme values of the problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014).

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016) construct a canonical martingale coupling, the left-curtain coupling, which plays the role that the monotone (quantile) coupling plays in classical transport. Its construction rests on one object, the shadow of a measure in another, and on one structural property of it: shadows are associative. This mission formalizes that property, Theorem 4.8 of the paper, together with the chain of results in §2.3 and §4.1–4.3 on which it rests.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment, of any total mass. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M:

  • the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν holds if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (this forces equal masses and equal barycentres);
  • the extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν holds if the same inequality holds for every nonnegative convex φ\varphiφ; it holds both when μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and when μ≤ν\mu\le\nuμ≤ν setwise;
  • the potential function of μ\muμ is uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y);
  • a sequence (νn)(\nu_n)(νn​) converges weakly in M\mathcal MM to ν\nuν if ∫f dνn→∫f dν\int f\,d\nu_n\to\int f\,d\nu∫fdνn​→∫fdν for every continuous bounded fff and ∫∣x∣ dνn→∫∣x∣ dν\int|x|\,d\nu_n\to\int|x|\,d\nu∫∣x∣dνn​→∫∣x∣dν.

If μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, a shadow of μ\muμ in ν\nuν is a measure η\etaη with (i) η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν, (ii) μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η, and (iii) η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ for every η′\eta'η′ satisfying (i) and (ii). Lemma 4.6 of the paper shows that it exists and is unique; it is written Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ). It is the least spread-out part of ν\nuν into which μ\muμ can be transported by a martingale. An atom is a measure α δx\alpha\,\delta_xαδx​ with α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0.

In the Lean development these objects are InM, ConvexLE, ExtConvexLE, potential, ConvergesInM and the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, in the namespace MartOT.Shadow.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.8 (shadow of a sum), p. 25

For γ1,γ2,ν∈M\gamma_1,\gamma_2,\nu\in\mathcal Mγ1​,γ2​,ν∈M with γ1+γ2⪯Eν\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_E\nuγ1​+γ2​⪯E​ν,

γ2⪯Eν−Sν(γ1)andSν(γ1+γ2)=Sν(γ1)+Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2).\gamma_2\preceq_E\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)\qquad\text{and}\qquad S^\nu(\gamma_1+\gamma_2)=S^\nu(\gamma_1)+S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2).γ2​⪯E​ν−Sν(γ1​)andSν(γ1​+γ2​)=Sν(γ1​)+Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Proposition 4.2 (p. 21): for equal masses, μ⪯Cν  ⟺  uμ≤uν\mu\preceq_C\nu\iff u_\mu\le u_\nuμ⪯C​ν⟺uμ​≤uν​; μ≤ν  ⟺  uν−uμ\mu\le\nu\iff u_\nu-u_\muμ≤ν⟺uν​−uμ​ is convex; for fixed mass and mean, convergence in M\mathcal MM is pointwise convergence of potential functions.
  2. Proposition 4.4 (p. 21): μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν implies μ⪯Cθ\mu\preceq_C\thetaμ⪯C​θ for some θ≤ν\theta\le\nuθ≤ν.
  3. Lemma 4.6 (p. 23): existence, uniqueness and property (iii′) of the shadow.
  4. Example 4.7 (p. 24): the shadow of an atom is the restriction of ν\nuν between two quantiles.
  5. Lemma 4.11 (p. 27): η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ)\eta-S^\eta(\delta)\le\nu-S^\nu(\delta)η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ) for an atom δ⪯Eη≤ν\delta\preceq_E\eta\le\nuδ⪯E​η≤ν.
  6. Lemma 4.12 (p. 27): the goal when γ1\gamma_1γ1​ is an atom.
  7. Lemma 4.13 (p. 28): the shadow of finitely many atoms, built one atom at a time.
  8. Lemma 2.9 (p. 15): approximation of γ∈M\gamma\in\mathcal Mγ∈M by a ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequence of finitely supported measures below it.
  9. Proposition 4.15 (p. 29): shadows pass to limits of ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequences.
  10. Lemma 4.16 (p. 29): the goal when γ2\gamma_2γ2​ is an atom, with δ⪯ESν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ)\delta\preceq_E S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)-S^\nu(\gamma)δ⪯E​Sν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ).

Significance

Theorem 4.8 is what makes the left-curtain coupling well defined and consistent. That coupling is the martingale plan which, for every xxx, sends μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ onto Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) (Theorem 4.18). Associativity says that the parts of ν\nuν assigned to μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ and to μ∣]x,x′]\mu|_{]x,x']}μ∣]x,x′]​ fit together into the part assigned to μ∣]−∞,x′]\mu|_{]-\infty,x']}μ∣]−∞,x′]​, so the family of shadows defines a single coupling. The uniqueness of left-monotone martingale plans and the optimality of the left-curtain coupling for the costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, both later results of the paper, rest on it.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a statement of it, and of the supporting results, in terms of measures of arbitrary finite mass with no reference to a chosen shadow function. A complete development would give Lean a theory of the convex order on finite measures through potential functions, which is reusable well beyond martingale transport.

Difficulty

For finitely atomic measures the identity follows by adding one atom at a time (Lemmas 4.12, 4.13, 4.16), but even the single-atom step needs a monotonicity property of shadows of atoms in varying targets (Lemma 4.11), and that property comes from their explicit description through quantile functions. The general case cannot be obtained by a direct manipulation of the minimality property (iii): minimality of Sν(γ1)S^\nu(\gamma_1)Sν(γ1​) and of Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2)S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2)Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​) separately says nothing obvious about minimality of their sum among measures dominating γ1+γ2\gamma_1+\gamma_2γ1​+γ2​, because a competitor for the sum need not split into competitors for the summands. The paper passes to the limit along convex-order approximations, which requires a continuity property of the shadow (Proposition 4.15) in the topology of M\mathcal MM.

Formalization scope

  • Measures are MeasureTheory.Measure ℝ with membership in M\mathcal MM stated explicitly (InM: finite measure, identity integrable). Masses are arbitrary; nothing is normalized to probability measures.
  • Integrals of convex test functions are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part), never as Bochner integrals, so a non-integrable test function cannot produce a junk value. The extended convex order uses lower Lebesgue integrals of nonnegative functions.
  • Shadows are the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, never a function built by choice. Every statement about Sν(⋅)S^\nu(\cdot)Sν(⋅) quantifies over all shadows, which with existence and uniqueness (Lemma 4.6, a milestone) is the paper's statement. Uniqueness is part of the conclusion of Lemma 4.6 and is not assumed elsewhere.
  • ν−η\nu-\etaν−η is Mathlib's truncated subtraction of measures. It is used only where η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν is guaranteed by property (i) of a shadow. Lemma 4.16 additionally asserts Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ)S^\nu(\gamma)\le S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ), so that the difference there is a genuine one.
  • Not a trivialization: in the goal, neither η1+η2≤ν\eta_1+\eta_2\le\nuη1​+η2​≤ν nor γ1+γ2⪯Cη1+η2\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_C\eta_1+\eta_2γ1​+γ2​⪯C​η1​+η2​ nor the minimality of η1+η2\eta_1+\eta_2η1​+η2​ is assumed; all three are the content of the conclusion IsShadow ν (γ1 + γ2) (η1 + η2).
  • Added relative to the page: Lemma 4.11 states ν∈M\nu\in\mathcal Mν∈M, which the paper takes from context. Proposition 4.2's third bullet is split into an equivalence for each candidate limit and a uniqueness clause, which together are equivalent to the printed sentence. Lemma 4.10 (continuity of ν↦Sν(δ)\nu\mapsto S^\nu(\delta)ν↦Sν(δ) in the Kantorovich metric) and Proposition 4.17 are not included.
  • Needed infrastructure: potential functions and their second distributional derivatives, quantile functions of finite measures, weak convergence of finite measures with first moments. Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 7: For c = |y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique, Keeps µ ∧ ν in Place, Splits the Rest in TwoResearch Paper

Motivation

A martingale transport plan between two laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR is a joint law of a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. Minimizing or maximizing E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over such plans gives the model-independent price bounds of an option with payoff c(X,Y)c(X,Y)c(X,Y) when the market quotes vanilla options at two maturities, and so fixes the marginal laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of the asset price. For the forward-starting straddle, with payoff ∣Y−X∣|Y-X|∣Y−X∣, the two bounds are the problems with costs −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ and ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale plans between μ\muμ and ν\nuν exist if and only if μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger (doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x) identify the optimizer for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ through a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2012: Hobson and Klimmek communicate a description of the optimizer for +∣y−x∣+|y-x|+∣y−x∣ to Beiglböck and Juillet, cited there as private communication (arXiv:1208.1509v2, §7.4 and reference 15).
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove existence, uniqueness and the shape of the optimizer for ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ for every continuous starting law, using only the primal problem and their variational lemma.

Setting

μ\muμ and ν\nuν are Borel probability measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments, in convex order: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is the set of measures π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

which is the paper's characterization (4) of "the disintegration πx\pi_xπx​ has barycentre xxx". For the cost c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣ the cost of a plan is ∫∣y−x∣ dπ∈[0,∞)\int|y-x|\,d\pi\in[0,\infty)∫∣y−x∣dπ∈[0,∞), and π\piπ is optimal if it minimizes this over ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). μ\muμ is continuous if μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the largest measure below both μ\muμ and ν\nuν (Example 2.5); (Id⊗Id)#η(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#\eta(Id⊗Id)#​η is the image of η\etaη under x↦(x,x)x\mapsto(x,x)x↦(x,x), a measure on the diagonal Δ={(x,x)}\Delta=\{(x,x)\}Δ={(x,x)}. For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}, and graph⁡(T)={(x,T(x))}\operatorname{graph}(T)=\{(x,T(x))\}graph(T)={(x,T(x))}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.4 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πabs∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πabs​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣; it is concentrated on a set Γ\GammaΓ with ∣Γx∣≤3|\Gamma_x|\le3∣Γx​∣≤3 for every xxx; and

πabs=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)+πgo,πgo concentrated on graph⁡(T1)∪graph⁡(T2)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)+\pi_{\mathrm{go}},\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{go}}\ \text{concentrated on}\ \operatorname{graph}(T_1)\cup\operatorname{graph}(T_2)πabs​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν)+πgo​,πgo​ concentrated on graph(T1​)∪graph(T2​)

for some functions T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment of the minimum (§2.1, pp. 10–11).
  2. Lemma 1.11, the variational lemma (p. 8).
  3. Lemma 7.5, the sign of a three-point cost difference (pp. 43–44).
  4. The forbidden configurations (24) on a finitely optimal set (p. 45).
  5. The static part: π∣Δ=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)\pi|_\Delta=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)π∣Δ​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν) for every optimal π\piπ (pp. 45–46).
  6. Lemma 3.2, accumulation of uncountably many large fibres (p. 19).
  7. At most two off-diagonal points per fibre (p. 46).
  8. The reduced problem between μ−μ∧ν\mu-\mu\wedge\nuμ−μ∧ν and ν−μ∧ν\nu-\mu\wedge\nuν−μ∧ν (p. 46).
  9. Lemma 5.5, two Borel graphs (p. 35), and Lemma 5.6, uniqueness from at most two points per fibre (p. 36).

Significance

The theorem identifies the lower model-independent bound for the forward-starting straddle: the extremal model keeps the mass that μ\muμ and ν\nuν share in place and splits every other starting point between at most two destinations. With Theorem 7.3 for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ it settles both bounds for continuous μ\muμ without any dual attainment, which is known to fail in general. The decomposition into a static part μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν and a part between marginals with μˉ∧νˉ=0\bar\mu\wedge\bar\nu=0μˉ​∧νˉ=0 is a reduction that applies to other costs vanishing on the diagonal.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission produces a formal statement of Theorem 7.4 and of each step of its proof, a Lean vocabulary for martingale transport on R\mathbb RR shared with the other missions of this series, and the general measure-theoretic lemmas (3.2, 5.5, 5.6) that the structure theorems of the paper all use.

Difficulty

Lemma 7.5 and (24) are elementary; the work lies in passing from them to statements about measures. The variational lemma needs Kellerer's duality-type result for finitely optimal sets. The static part requires showing that a positive defect κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection)\kappa=\mu\wedge\nu-\pi(\Delta\text{-projection})κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection) produces, at κ\kappaκ-almost every point, a forbidden configuration, which uses the disintegration of the moving part. The cardinality bound requires the accumulation argument of Lemma 3.2, and the forbidden configurations only hold for points that lie strictly inside the range of their own fibre, which the martingale condition supplies only almost everywhere. Uniqueness does not follow from strict convexity of a cost functional, since the problem is linear: it comes from the two-graph structure through Lemma 5.6, and it fails if μ\muμ has atoms (Remark 7.7).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with Borel σ-algebras. Costs are integrals in the extended reals through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral; the cost ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ is nonnegative and, under finite first moments, finite. Martingale plans are encoded by condition (4), competitors by the same device. μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the infimum in Mathlib's complete lattice of measures, measure subtraction is Mathlib's truncated subtraction, cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and "concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0. Continuity of μ\muμ is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for all xxx. As on the page, Γ\GammaΓ, T1T_1T1​ and T2T_2T2​ in the goal carry no measurability requirement.

Two choices differ from a literal reading and are disclosed in the items: (24) carries the hypothesis y−<x<y+y^-<x<y^+y−<x<y+ of Lemma 7.5, which the page invokes and without which (24) is false; and the steps that do not need continuity of μ\muμ (the static part, the reduced problem) are stated without it.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the lattice infimum of measures, not a product and not a pointwise minimum of set values, and all four conjuncts of the goal (existence, uniqueness, the bound 3, the decomposition) are asserted together.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Setting layer (convex order, ΠM\Pi_MΠM​, competitors), Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 (a Lusin–Novikov consequence) and Lemma 5.6. Proofs of any milestone, and infrastructure on disintegrations of plans on R2\mathbb R^2R2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 5: For c = ϕ(x)ψ(y), ψ Strictly Convex, ϕ Strictly Decreasing, the Left-Curtain Coupling Is the Unique OptimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR by a one-step martingale: a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. The problem arises in mathematical finance, where μ\muμ and ν\nuν are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two maturities, implied by quoted vanilla option prices, and the extremal values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all such couplings are model-independent price bounds for the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In classical optimal transport on the line, a single coupling, the monotone (quantile) coupling, is optimal for a whole family of costs. Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) identify its martingale counterpart, the left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​, and determine costs for which it is optimal.

This mission formalizes one of those optimality results, Theorem 6.3: for product costs c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y) with ψ\psiψ strictly convex and φ\varphiφ decreasing, πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is the unique optimizer.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν means ∫ϕ dμ≤∫ϕ dν\int\phi\,d\mu\le\int\phi\,d\nu∫ϕdμ≤∫ϕdν for every convex ϕ:R→R\phi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rϕ:R→R; it forces equal mass and equal mean. The extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν asks this only for nonnegative convex ϕ\phiϕ.

A transport plan from μ\muμ to ν\nuν is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν; the set of them is Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν). It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional law πx\pi_xπx​ of yyy given xxx has barycentre xxx for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the cost of a plan is Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞], the value is CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡π∈ΠM(μ,ν)Eπ[c]C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)}E_\pi[c]CM​(μ,ν)=infπ∈ΠM​(μ,ν)​Eπ​[c], and π\piπ is optimal if it belongs to ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and attains this infimum.

For a plan π\piπ and t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R, the measure νtπ=proj#y(π∣(−∞,t]×R)\nu^\pi_t=\mathrm{proj}^y_\#(\pi|_{(-\infty,t]\times\mathbb R})νtπ​=proj#y​(π∣(−∞,t]×R​) is where π\piπ sends the left part μ∣(−∞,t]\mu|_{(-\infty,t]}μ∣(−∞,t]​ of μ\muμ. Given μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, the shadow Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ) is the measure η\etaη with η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν and μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η that is ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-below every other such measure. The left-curtain coupling of μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν is the plan πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ with

proj#x(πlc∣(−∞,x]×R)=μ∣(−∞,x],νxπlc=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x])(x∈R).\mathrm{proj}^x_\#(\pi_{lc}|_{(-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=\mu|_{(-\infty,x]},\qquad \nu^{\pi_{lc}}_x=S^\nu(\mu|_{(-\infty,x]})\qquad(x\in\mathbb R).proj#x​(πlc​∣(−∞,x]×R​)=μ∣(−∞,x]​,νxπlc​​=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x]​)(x∈R).

It sends every left part of μ\muμ to the most concentrated part of ν\nuν that can receive it by a martingale.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.3

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be finite measures, ψ≥0\psi\ge0ψ≥0 strictly convex, φ≥0\varphi\ge0φ≥0 strictly decreasing, c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y), and assume CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞. Then

πlc is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM(μ,ν) equals πlc.\pi_{lc}\ \text{is optimal, and every optimal }\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\text{ equals }\pi_{lc}.πlc​ is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) equals πlc​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6: for μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν in M\mathcal MM the shadow exists and is unique.
  2. Theorem 4.18: for μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν the left-curtain coupling exists, is unique, and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  3. Proof of Theorem 4.21: for every π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) and sss, νsπ≤ν\nu^\pi_s\le\nuνsπ​≤ν, μ∣(−∞,s]⪯Cνsπ\mu|_{(-\infty,s]}\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sμ∣(−∞,s]​⪯C​νsπ​, and νsπlc⪯Cνsπ\nu^{\pi_{lc}}_s\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sνsπlc​​⪯C​νsπ​.
  4. Equation (16): ∫φ(x)ψ(y) dπ=∫0∞(∫ψ dν{φ≥t}π)dt\displaystyle\int\varphi(x)\psi(y)\,d\pi=\int_0^\infty\Big(\int\psi\,d\nu^\pi_{\{\varphi\ge t\}}\Big)dt∫φ(x)ψ(y)dπ=∫0∞​(∫ψdν{φ≥t}π​)dt.
  5. Equality case: for η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ and ψ\psiψ strictly convex with ∫ψ dη′<∞\int\psi\,d\eta'<\infty∫ψdη′<∞, ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ iff η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′.
  6. §1.3: a plan in Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν) is determined by the family (νtπ)t∈R(\nu^\pi_t)_{t\in\mathbb R}(νtπ​)t∈R​.

Significance

Theorem 6.3 gives a class of costs for which the martingale transport problem has an explicit, cost-independent solution, and does so with uniqueness and without any regularity of φ\varphiφ beyond monotonicity. In the financial reading, every payoff of the form φ(X)ψ(Y)\varphi(X)\psi(Y)φ(X)ψ(Y) with these shape properties has its model-independent lower price bound attained by one and the same model, the left-curtain martingale, which depends only on the marginals. The result complements Theorem 6.1 of the same paper (costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex), proved by a different, variational route.

The theorem is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version is known: neither the left-curtain coupling nor shadows nor martingale optimal transport on R\mathbb RR appears in Mathlib or on the platform. A formalization produces the shadow construction, the left-curtain coupling as a Lean object with its characterization, and the comparison principle "πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ has the ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-least targets", all of which are reused by the other results of the series (uniqueness of the left-monotone plan, Theorem 6.1, the support bounds of §7).

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares costs plan by plan, but the convex order of two measures alone does not order the integrals of a strictly convex ψ\psiψ strictly: that ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ forces η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′ requires representing η′\eta'η′ as a martingale image of η\etaη (Strassen's theorem on R\mathbb RR) and the equality case of Jensen's inequality, with care about infinite integrals. The second obstacle is the passage from "equal targets for almost every level ttt of φ\varphiφ" to "equal plans": the superlevel sets of a strictly decreasing φ\varphiφ are half-lines that may be open or closed at the jumps of φ\varphiφ, so the targets must be controlled for both kinds of half-line, and a null set of levels must be bridged by monotonicity of t↦νtπt\mapsto\nu^\pi_tt↦νtπ​. Existence of shadows (Lemma 4.6) is itself a nontrivial construction through potential functions uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with the Borel σ-algebras. μ\muμ and ν\nuν are finite, not necessarily probability, measures, as the theorem states; membership in M\mathcal MM is part of ConvexLE. Integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by the characterization above with bounded test functions ρ\rhoρ. The shadow and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain); their existence and uniqueness are milestones, never built into definitions. "Optimal" is minimality of cost over martingale plans; attainment is not assumed.

Two hypotheses are read into the printed statement. "Decreasing" is strict: with φ≡1\varphi\equiv1φ≡1 all martingale plans have the same cost ∫ψ dν\int\psi\,d\nu∫ψdν, and for μ\muμ uniform on {−1,1}\{-1,1\}{−1,1}, ν\nuν uniform on {−2,0,2}\{-2,0,2\}{−2,0,2} there are infinitely many of them. CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞ is added, as the proof assumes a plan of finite cost; otherwise every plan is optimal. A formalization in which πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is merely some plan, the cost is a Bochner integral (which is 000 for non-integrable integrands), or optimality is taken among all plans rather than martingale plans would not be Theorem 6.3. Theorem 4.18 is stated for finite measures of equal mass, the generality Theorem 6.3 needs. Strassen's theorem is already posed on the platform (PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_cx) and is not restated.

A complete development needs the convex order on finite measures, shadows, the left-curtain coupling, a layer-cake identity for product integrands and the equality case of the convex order for strictly convex test functions. The shadow and left-curtain layers are reusable across the whole series; contributions to any milestone, and to general lemmas on the convex order of finite (not only probability) measures, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 6: For c = −|y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique and Lives on Two Monotone GraphsResearch Paper

Motivation

A forward-start straddle pays ∣S2−S1∣|S_2 - S_1|∣S2​−S1​∣, the absolute change of an asset price between two future dates. A trader who knows the market prices of all vanilla options at both dates knows the laws μ\muμ of S1S_1S1​ and ν\nuν of S2S_2S2​, but not their joint law. Under a pricing measure the price is a martingale, so the admissible joint laws are exactly the martingale couplings of μ\muμ and ν\nuν. The highest price consistent with the data is therefore the value of an optimization problem over martingale couplings: maximize E∣S2−S1∣\mathbb E|S_2-S_1|E∣S2​−S1​∣. Hobson and Neuberger (Robust bounds for forward start options, 2012) studied this problem and identified the maximizing coupling through the dual problem. Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner (arXiv:1106.5929) showed that the dual maximizers need not exist in general.

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 2016) approach martingale transport through the structure of the support of optimal plans. Their Theorem 7.3 recovers the Hobson–Neuberger optimizer for every continuous starting law μ\muμ: it is unique and splits each starting point into at most two destinations along two monotone maps.

Timeline.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale couplings of μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν exist iff μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger identify the optimizer for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣ via a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2013: Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner give an example where the dual maximizers do not exist.
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet prove existence, uniqueness and the two-graph structure for every continuous μ\muμ, using only the primal problem and a variational lemma.

Setting

A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments is a probability measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ, second marginal ν\nuν, and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int \rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional mean of yyy given xxx is xxx. Their set is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). It is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the problem is

CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫c dπ: π∈ΠM(μ,ν)},C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int c\,d\pi:\ \pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\Big\},CM​(μ,ν)=inf{∫cdπ: π∈ΠM​(μ,ν)},

and π\piπ is optimal if it attains this infimum. This mission concerns the Hobson–Neuberger cost c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣, so optimal plans maximize ∫∣y−x∣ dπ\int|y-x|\,d\pi∫∣y−x∣dπ. The measure μ\muμ is continuous: μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 write Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}. A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν are probability measures and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πHN∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πHN​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣. Moreover there are a Borel set SSS with μ(S)=1\mu(S)=1μ(S)=1 and functions T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​, nondecreasing on SSS, with

T1(x)≤x≤T2(x) (x∈S),πHN({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1(x),T2(x)}})=1.T_1(x)\le x\le T_2(x)\ (x\in S),\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\big(\{(x,y):x\in S,\ y\in\{T_1(x),T_2(x)\}\}\big)=1.T1​(x)≤x≤T2​(x) (x∈S),πHN​({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1​(x),T2​(x)}})=1.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment (§2.1, pp. 10–11): for a lower semicontinuous, sufficiently integrable cost the infimum is attained when ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\neq\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅.
  2. Lemma 1.11 (p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα on Γ\GammaΓ has a cheaper competitor.
  3. Lemma 7.5 (pp. 43–44): the sign of A−BA-BA−B, an explicit difference of absolute values, as a function of one variable.
  4. (23) (p. 44): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, for (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')\in\Gamma(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ with y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+, neither y′≤x′<xy'\le x'<xy′≤x′<x nor x<x′≤y′x<x'\le y'x<x′≤y′.
  5. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19) and the countability of {a:∣Γa∣>2}\{a:|\Gamma_a|>2\}{a:∣Γa​∣>2} (p. 45).
  6. Lemma 5.5 (p. 35): a Borel set with at most two points per fibre is the union of two Borel graphs.
  7. Monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ (p. 45).
  8. Convexity of the set of optimizers (p. 45) and Lemma 5.6 (p. 36): a nonempty convex set of martingale plans each living on a set with two-point fibres is a single plan.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.3 gives the extremal martingale coupling for the forward-start straddle in closed structural form: a plan that sends each xxx to one point below and one point above it, both chosen monotonically in xxx. Combined with the martingale constraint, this determines the transition probabilities at each xxx, so the plan, and the model-independent upper price bound, are pinned down by μ\muμ and ν\nuν. Remark 7.6 of the paper shows that continuity of μ\muμ cannot be dropped: for atomic μ\muμ uniqueness can fail.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a formal account of a support-based method (variational lemma, forbidden configurations, fibre counting, selection of Borel graphs, uniqueness from convexity). Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 and Lemma 5.6 are general statements reused by the paper's other structure theorems (Corollary 1.6, Theorems 7.1, 7.4) and are of independent use.

Difficulty

The forbidden configurations (23) are pointwise statements about a set Γ\GammaΓ of full measure, while the conclusion is about functions. Passing from one to the other needs three ingredients that do not follow from (23) alone: a counting argument showing that only countably many fibres can have three or more points (this is where continuity of μ\muμ enters, through Lemma 3.2), a measurable selection of the two branches (Lemma 5.5, a Lusin–Novikov type theorem not in Mathlib), and a uniqueness argument comparing two optimizers through their average. The naive idea of reading uniqueness off from (23) directly fails: (23) constrains each optimizer separately, and two optimizers could a priori live on different pairs of graphs.

Lemma 1.11 itself rests on a duality theorem of Kellerer type for product sets and is the subject of a separate mission of this series.

Formalization scope

The Lean development works with measures on ℝ and ℝ × ℝ and their Borel σ-algebras. Integrals that may be infinite are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); the cost of a plan, CMC_MCM​, and the convex order are defined through it. ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is encoded by the paper's own characterization (4) with bounded test functions, and competitors by the same device; no disintegrations appear in the statements. Cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard, valued in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}. Continuity of μ\muμ is the hypothesis μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx. "Concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0.

The attainment milestone uses the finite-measure class M\mathcal MM introduced in §2.1: probability normalization is required for Lemma 1.11 and the goal, but not for attainment. The first moments of both marginals are explicit hypotheses in that milestone.

The goal states T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ as nondecreasing on a Borel set SSS of full μ\muμ-measure, with T1≤id≤T2T_1\le\mathrm{id}\le T_2T1​≤id≤T2​ on SSS. The page writes T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R nondecreasing everywhere; read literally that version fails when μ\muμ has bounded support and ν\nuν does not, and the paper's proof produces exactly the full-measure form (as in its Corollary 1.6).

Statements (23), the fibre count and the monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ are stated for an arbitrary set Γ\GammaΓ with the finite-optimality property of Lemma 1.11 for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣, so they do not depend on a plan. A formalization proving only existence of an optimizer, or uniqueness without the two-graph structure, does not settle the goal: both parts are required.

Needed infrastructure: weak compactness of ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and lower semicontinuity of the cost functional; a Kellerer-type duality for Lemma 1.11; a Lusin–Novikov selection theorem for Lemma 5.5. Contributions to any of these, and alternative proofs of Lemma 5.6, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. arXiv:1106.5929
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 8: If Affine Lines Meet h′ in at Most k Points, Optimal Plans Split Each Non-Atom Into at Most k PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of a price at two dates under the constraint that the coupling is a martingale: the conditional mean of the later price given the earlier one equals the earlier one. It is the model-independent pricing problem of mathematical finance: given the marginal laws implied by vanilla option prices, the extreme values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all martingale couplings bound the price of the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In the classical (non-martingale) transport problem, the shape of the cost determines the shape of the optimal coupling: for strictly convex costs of y−xy-xy−x on the line the optimizer is a monotone map. The question this mission addresses is the martingale analogue: how much can an optimal martingale coupling split a single starting point, as a function of the cost?

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) introduced the variational lemma for this problem and used it to prove, among other results, that the left-curtain coupling is optimal for a family of costs and that, for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x), the number of points into which an optimal plan sends a non-atom of μ\muμ is bounded by a geometric property of h′h'h′ alone (their Theorem 7.1). This mission formalizes that bound.

Setting

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR or R2\mathbb R^2R2. A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ(x,y)=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0 for every bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; equivalently, the disintegration (πx)(\pi_x)(πx​) of π\piπ along its first coordinate satisfies ∫y dπx(y)=x\int y\,d\pi_x(y)=x∫ydπx​(y)=x for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. The set of such plans is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν); it is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, meaning ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

A cost is a function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R. It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) for some a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞] is well defined for every plan. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if Eπ[c]≤Eπ′[c]E_\pi[c]\le E_{\pi'}[c]Eπ​[c]≤Eπ′​[c] for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν).

A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y). For a set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ} is its fibre over xxx.

This mission concerns costs of the form c(x,y)=h(y−x)c(x,y)=h(y-x)c(x,y)=h(y−x) with h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R twice continuously differentiable, and the hypothesis that affine functions meet h′h'h′ in at most kkk points: for all s,t∈Rs,t\in\mathbb Rs,t∈R, ∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k|\{x:h'(x)=sx+t\}|\le k∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k. For instance h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 satisfies it with k=3k=3k=3.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 38)

Under the hypotheses above, with π\piπ an optimal martingale plan of finite cost, there is a disintegration (πx)x∈R(\pi_x)_{x\in\mathbb R}(πx​)x∈R​ of π\piπ such that for every x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R

μ({x})>0orcard⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k,\mu(\{x\})>0\qquad\text{or}\qquad\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le k,μ({x})>0orcard(sptπx​)≤k,

and if μ\muμ has no atoms, card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k holds μ\muμ-almost surely for every disintegration of π\piπ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma, p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα with spt⁡α⊆Γ\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gammasptα⊆Γ has a strictly cheaper competitor.
  2. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19): if uncountably many fibres Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ have at least kkk points, some (a,b1<⋯<bk)(a,b_1<\dots<b_k)(a,b1​<⋯<bk​) is a limit of such configurations from the right and from the left.
  3. An interior point off the chord (proof of Theorem 7.1, p. 39): for b0<⋯<bkb_0<\dots<b_kb0​<⋯<bk​, some interior bib_ibi​ has h′(bi−a)h'(b_i-a)h′(bi​−a) off the chord of h′(⋅−a)h'(\cdot-a)h′(⋅−a) through b0,bkb_0,b_kb0​,bk​.
  4. The local sign (p. 39): near such (a,bi)(a,b_i)(a,bi​), the cost difference (17) − (18) of a three-point rerouting is nonzero with sign fixed by a−a′a-a'a−a′.
  5. Countably many exceptional points (pp. 38–39): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, only countably many continuity points xxx of μ\muμ have ∣Γx∣≥k+1|\Gamma_x|\ge k+1∣Γx​∣≥k+1.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 7.1 converts a one-dimensional condition on h′h'h′ into a sparsity statement for every optimal martingale coupling: non-atoms of μ\muμ are sent to at most kkk points. For h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 this gives at most three points, and Section 7.3 of the paper gives an example with continuous μ\muμ where the optimizer splits into more than two points, so for this cost the bound cannot be lowered to two. For costs where h′h'h′ is strictly convex (so k=2k=2k=2), it gives the two-point structure also enjoyed by the left-curtain coupling, which is optimal for those costs (Theorem 1.9). Such support bounds are what make the optimizers computable and the corresponding robust price bounds explicit.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is formalized. A formal proof requires machine-checked versions of the variational lemma (itself resting on a duality theorem of Kellerer type), the countability argument of Lemma 3.2, and the real-analysis estimate behind the three-point rerouting. Each of these is reusable: Lemma 1.11 drives every structural result of the paper, and Lemma 3.2 is used again for the left-monotonicity theorems.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt is to argue pointwise: if a fibre Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ has k+1k+1k+1 points, reroute mass within that fibre to lower the cost. This fails, because a competitor must preserve the barycentre of each fibre, and within a single fibre no rerouting both preserves the barycentre and the marginals. Any improvement must move mass between two different starting points aaa and a′a'a′, and this requires the two fibres to be close to each other and arranged consistently, which a single fibre cannot guarantee. Producing such pairs of fibres needs uncountably many exceptional points (Lemma 3.2) and the set Γ\GammaΓ of the variational lemma, whose existence is the deep part (it rests on a duality theorem for measures with given marginals). A second difficulty is that the conclusion is required at every non-atom xxx, not only almost everywhere, so the exceptional set must be controlled exactly.

Formalization scope

Lean represents measures with Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded through the test-function characterization ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ=0 for bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; costs are extended-real integrals ∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞]\int c^+-\int c^-\in[-\infty,+\infty]∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞] (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral); competitors of a finitely supported α=∑s∈Swsδs\alpha=\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_sα=∑s∈S​ws​δs​ are encoded through the same test-function device. A disintegration is a Markov kernel κ\kappaκ with π=μ⊗κ\pi=\mu\otimes\kappaπ=μ⊗κ, and card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k is written as "κ(x)\kappa(x)κ(x) is concentrated on a set of at most kkk points", which is equivalent for probability measures on R\mathbb RR. Cardinalities take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}; h′h'h′ is deriv h.

Standing and added hypotheses of the goal: μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν are probability measures in convex order; "optimal transport plan" means optimal martingale plan, as throughout Section 7; and, because the proof starts from Lemma 1.11, the hypotheses of that lemma are added: the sufficient integrability condition for ccc and finite cost of π\piπ. "Continuous μ\muμ" is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

The conclusion is not trivialized: the first part holds for every xxx with a single chosen kernel, not almost everywhere, and the second part quantifies over all kernels, not one. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for example h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4, k=3k=3k=3, μ=ν=δ0\mu=\nu=\delta_0μ=ν=δ0​).

A complete development needs disintegration of measures on R2\mathbb R^2R2 (available in Mathlib as condKernel), the variational lemma with its duality ingredient, and elementary real analysis. Contributions to the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series of missions on this paper.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing 2: With Type-Dependent Choice and IFR Page Views, the TRUNC Algorithm Earns at Least 1/3 of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

Online retailers, search engines and streaming services show products on a sequence of pages, and most consumers look at only the first few. Which products are seen therefore depends on where they are placed. Gallego, Li, Truong and Wang (Operations Research, 2020) call the problem of placing products on pages to maximize expected revenue product framing. They show that it is NP-hard even with two pages and the multinomial logit model, and they give simple algorithms with constant-factor guarantees.

This mission concerns their second guarantee. In their basic model every consumer chooses with the same choice model, whatever the number of pages she views. In practice the number of pages viewed is itself informative: consumers who browse many pages may be keener buyers. Section 6 of the paper lets the choice model depend on the number of pages viewed and proposes the TRUNC algorithm for this setting. The guarantee is that TRUNC earns at least one third of the optimal expected revenue.

Setting

There are nnn products with revenues ri≥0r_i\ge 0ri​≥0 and mmm virtual pages, each holding at most ppp products; write [k]={1,…,k}[k]=\{1,\dots,k\}[k]={1,…,k}. A framing places each product on at most one page, with at most ppp products per page. A consumer views a random number X∈[m]X\in[m]X∈[m] of pages, with law λ(x)=P[X=x]\lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X=x]λ(x)=P[X=x], tail Λ(x)=P[X≥x]\Lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X\ge x]Λ(x)=P[X≥x] and failure rate h(x)=λ(x)/Λ(x)h(x)=\lambda(x)/\Lambda(x)h(x)=λ(x)/Λ(x). Her consideration set is the set of products on pages 1,…,X1,\dots,X1,…,X.

A consumer who views xxx pages is of type xxx and buys product iii from consideration set SSS with probability Px(i,S)P_x(i,S)Px​(i,S), where Px(i,S)≥0P_x(i,S)\ge 0Px​(i,S)≥0, Px(i,S)=0P_x(i,S)=0Px​(i,S)=0 for i∉Si\notin Si∈/S, and ∑i∈SPx(i,S)≤1\sum_{i\in S}P_x(i,S)\le 1∑i∈S​Px​(i,S)≤1. The revenue of SSS for type xxx and the best capacitated revenue are

Rx(S)=∑i∈SriPx(i,S),U(x)=max⁡S⊆[n], ∣S∣≤xpRx(S).R_x(S)=\sum_{i\in S}r_iP_x(i,S),\qquad U(x)=\max_{S\subseteq[n],\ |S|\le xp}R_x(S).Rx​(S)=i∈S∑​ri​Px​(i,S),U(x)=S⊆[n], ∣S∣≤xpmax​Rx​(S).

A framing fff earns ∑x∈[m]λ(x)Rx(Cf(x))\sum_{x\in[m]}\lambda(x)R_x(C_f(x))∑x∈[m]​λ(x)Rx​(Cf​(x)), where Cf(x)C_f(x)Cf​(x) is the set of products on pages 1,…,x1,\dots,x1,…,x. Its maximum over all framings is VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT. The assumptions are:

  • B1: Rx(S)≤Ry(S)R_x(S)\le R_y(S)Rx​(S)≤Ry​(S) whenever x≤yx\le yx≤y and ∣S∣≤xp|S|\le xp∣S∣≤xp;
  • B2: U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is nonincreasing in xxx;
  • B3: problem (9) defining UUU can be solved, here exactly;
  • B4: XXX has an increasing failure rate (IFR), i.e. hhh is nondecreasing (Shaked and Shanthikumar 2007).

TRUNC(yyy), for y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m], picks an optimal assortment S(y)S(y)S(y) for U(y)U(y)U(y) and places it, in any arrangement, on pages 1,…,y1,\dots,y1,…,y, leaving the remaining pages blank. TRUNC takes the best of these mmm framings; its revenue is VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC.

The analysis passes through the bound-revealing program (10): minimize max⁡x∈[m]U(x)Λ(x)\max_{x\in[m]}U(x)\Lambda(x)maxx∈[m]​U(x)Λ(x) over nondecreasing U≥0U\ge 0U≥0 with U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x nonincreasing and over tails 1=Λ(1)≥⋯≥Λ(m)≥01=\Lambda(1)\ge\cdots\ge\Lambda(m)\ge 01=Λ(1)≥⋯≥Λ(m)≥0 with Λ(x+1)Λ(x−1)≤Λ(x)2\Lambda(x+1)\Lambda(x-1)\le\Lambda(x)^2Λ(x+1)Λ(x−1)≤Λ(x)2, subject to ∑xλ(x)U(x)=1\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)=1∑x​λ(x)U(x)=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

Under Assumptions B1–B4, for every choice of optimal assortments and every arrangement on the pages,

VTRUNC  ≥  13 VOPT.V^{TRUNC}\;\ge\;\frac13\,V^{OPT}.VTRUNC≥31​VOPT.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Upper bound (§6, p. 13): VOPT≤E[U(X)]=∑xλ(x)U(x)V^{OPT}\le\mathbf E[U(X)]=\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)VOPT≤E[U(X)]=∑x​λ(x)U(x).
  2. Lower bound (§6.1, p. 14): every run of TRUNC(yyy) earns at least U(y)Λ(y)U(y)\Lambda(y)U(y)Λ(y).
  3. Lemma 8: for an IFR tail with Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0, g(x)=xΛ(x)g(x)=x\Lambda(x)g(x)=xΛ(x) is weakly unimodal, and its largest maximizer is min⁡{x:h(x)>1/(x+1)}\min\{x: h(x)>1/(x+1)\}min{x:h(x)>1/(x+1)}.
  4. Proposition 5, Lemma 9, Proposition 6, Proposition 7: the structure of every optimal solution of (10) with Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0. With yyy the largest maximizer of U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x):
    • U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is constant for x≥yx\ge yx≥y;
    • yyy also maximizes xΛ(x)x\Lambda(x)xΛ(x);
    • U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x) is constant for x≤yx\le yx≤y;
    • hhh is constant on [y,m−1][y,m-1][y,m−1].
  5. Value of (10) (A.4, p. 42): every feasible point of (10) has max⁡xU(x)Λ(x)≥1/3\max_xU(x)\Lambda(x)\ge 1/3maxx​U(x)Λ(x)≥1/3.

Significance

The theorem shows that framing under type-dependent choice admits a constant-factor approximation using only mmm calls to an assortment oracle, although the framing problem itself is NP-hard. The constant does not depend on the number of products, pages or page capacity. The bound-revealing program (10) is a self-contained extremal problem about log-concave tails and is reusable wherever a revenue curve with decreasing average returns meets an IFR horizon. The numerical value of (10) decreases with mmm (2/32/32/3 at m=2m=2m=2, about 0.360.360.36 at m=40m=40m=40), so the constant 1/31/31/3 is approached only as the number of pages grows.

The result is proved in the paper. No part of it has a machine-checked proof: the platform has no item on product framing, discrete failure rates or program (10). A complete development would give a machine-checked proof of the approximation ratio. It would also give a checked treatment of the perturbation arguments of Appendix A.4, which the paper presents briefly.

Difficulty

Two steps are elementary: the upper bound (a consumer of type xxx never sees more than xpxpxp products) and the lower bound (every consumer of type x≥yx\ge yx≥y sees all of S(y)S(y)S(y)).

The difficulty lies in the extremal problem (10). It is not convex: the IFR constraint is a log-concavity condition, and the objective is a maximum of products U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x). A direct bound such as max⁡xU(x)Λ(x)≥∑xλ(x)U(x)/m\max_xU(x)\Lambda(x)\ge\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)/mmaxx​U(x)Λ(x)≥∑x​λ(x)U(x)/m gives a constant that decays with mmm. The uniform constant comes from showing that the extremal tail is geometric beyond the maximizing page and that the extremal UUU is pinned down on both sides of it. The paper reaches this structure through optimality conditions, so a formal proof must also establish that (10) attains its minimum, or must avoid that step.

Formalization scope

Products are Fin n. Pages are the natural numbers 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m, as in the paper, with m≥1m\ge 1m≥1 and p≥1p\ge 1p≥1. A framing is f : Fin n → ℕ: product iii is on page f i when 1≤f(i)≤m1\le f(i)\le m1≤f(i)≤m, and f i = 0 means it is not displayed. The law λ\lambdaλ and the functions of (10) are functions on N\mathbb NN of which only the values on [m][m][m] are used, and Λ(m+1)=0\Lambda(m+1)=0Λ(m+1)=0.

VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT and UUU are maxima over finite nonempty families, and VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC is a Finset.sup' over y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m]. TRUNC is a predicate on its outputs, not a function, and the goal is quantified over every family of runs. Assumption B3 is used with ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, as everywhere in the paper. IFR is required only where the failure rate is defined (Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0), so laws whose support ends before page mmm are allowed. Nonnegative revenues ri≥0r_i\ge 0ri​≥0 are assumed; the lower bound of milestone 2 needs them.

No trivializing reading. The goal is not stated for one particular filling heuristic, or for some run only, and VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC is the revenue of the framings themselves, not the lower bound U(y)Λ(y)U(y)\Lambda(y)U(y)Λ(y).

Page numbers refer to the authors' accepted manuscript of the Operations Research article, which differ from the journal typesetting. The development needs only Mathlib (finite sums and maxima over Finset). Program (10) and Lemma 8 are independent of the framing model. Contributions are welcome at every milestone: Lemma 8 and the bound for (10) are the most self-contained.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, A. Li, V.-A. Truong, X. Wang, Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing, Operations Research, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1875
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty under Wasserstein Ambiguity: The Reduced Quantile-Strengthened MIP (20) Is an Exact Reformulation of DR-CCPResearch Paper

Motivation

A chance-constrained program chooses a decision xxx so that a random vector ξ\xiξ falls outside a decision-dependent safety set S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) with probability at most ϵ\epsilonϵ. Chance constraints are a standard model for reliability requirements in power systems, supply chains and transportation, where a plan must survive random demand or supply with high probability. In practice the distribution of ξ\xiξ is known only through samples ξ1,…,ξN\xi_1, \dots, \xi_Nξ1​,…,ξN​, and the sample average approximation (SAA) that replaces it by the empirical distribution PN\mathbb P_NPN​ is sensitive to the particular sample.

Distributionally robust chance constraints regularize SAA by requiring the probability bound for every distribution within Wasserstein distance θ\thetaθ of PN\mathbb P_NPN​. Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann (arXiv:1809.00210) and Xie (doi:10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5) showed that, for safety sets defined by linear inequalities, the resulting program (DR-CCP) is a mixed-integer linear program with a big-M constant. These big-M formulations are hard for solvers to close when θ\thetaθ is small. Ho-Nguyen, Kılınç-Karzan, Küçükyavuz and Lee (doi:10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y) connect the formulation to the mixing sets of SAA and to robust 0–1 programming, and derive a smaller and tighter formulation that is still exact.

Setting

The random vector lives in RK\mathbb R^KRK with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥; in the formalization it is a finite-dimensional real normed space EEE. The dual norm of a linear functional bbb is ∥b∥∗=sup⁡∥ξ∥≤1b⊤ξ\|b\|_* = \sup_{\|\xi\| \le 1} b^\top \xi∥b∥∗​=sup∥ξ∥≤1​b⊤ξ. The decision xxx ranges over a set X⊆RL\mathcal X \subseteq \mathbb R^LX⊆RL.

The 1-Wasserstein distance between distributions P,P′\mathbb P, \mathbb P'P,P′ is the infimum of E∥ξ−ξ′∥\mathbb E\|\xi - \xi'\|E∥ξ−ξ′∥ over couplings of P\mathbb PP and P′\mathbb P'P′. The ambiguity set FN(θ)\mathcal F_N(\theta)FN​(θ) is the set of distributions within distance θ\thetaθ of PN=1N∑iδξi\mathbb P_N = \frac1N \sum_{i} \delta_{\xi_i}PN​=N1​∑i​δξi​​. The feasible region of (DR-CCP) is

XDR(S)={x∈X:sup⁡P∈FN(θ)P[ξ∉S(x)]≤ϵ}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \Big\{x \in \mathcal X : \sup_{\mathbb P \in \mathcal F_N(\theta)} \mathbb P[\xi \notin \mathcal S(x)] \le \epsilon\Big\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:P∈FN​(θ)sup​P[ξ∈/S(x)]≤ϵ}.

Throughout, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 are fixed.

The paper studies joint chance constraints with right-hand side uncertainty: for p∈[P]p \in [P]p∈[P] there are ap∈RLa_p \in \mathbb R^Lap​∈RL, bpb_pbp​ and dp∈Rd_p \in \mathbb Rdp​∈R, and

S(x)={ξ:bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x>0, p∈[P]}.\mathcal S(x) = \{\xi : b_p^\top \xi + d_p - a_p^\top x > 0,\ p \in [P]\}.S(x)={ξ:bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x>0, p∈[P]}.

Write gi,p(x)=(bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗g_{i,p}(x) = (b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*gi,p​(x)=(bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​ and k=⌊ϵN⌋k = \lfloor \epsilon N \rfloork=⌊ϵN⌋. Let qpq_pqp​ be the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th largest value among {−bp⊤ξi}i∈[N]\{-b_p^\top\xi_i\}_{i\in[N]}{−bp⊤​ξi​}i∈[N]​, and let [N]p={i:−bp⊤ξi>qp}[N]_p = \{i : -b_p^\top \xi_i > q_p\}[N]p​={i:−bp⊤​ξi​>qp​}.

The big-M formulation (5) of Chen et al. uses binaries z∈{0,1}Nz \in \{0,1\}^Nz∈{0,1}N, slacks r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 and a scalar t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 with

ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri,M(1−zi)≥t−ri,gi,p(x)+Mzi≥t−ri.\epsilon t \ge \theta + \tfrac1N \textstyle\sum_i r_i,\qquad M(1 - z_i) \ge t - r_i,\qquad g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge t - r_i.ϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​,M(1−zi​)≥t−ri​,gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥t−ri​.

The paper's improved formulation (20) keeps the first two families, adds the knapsack constraint ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k, replaces MMM in the third family by hi,p=(−bp⊤ξi−qp)/∥bp∥∗h_{i,p} = (-b_p^\top\xi_i - q_p)/\|b_p\|_*hi,p​=(−bp⊤​ξi​−qp​)/∥bp​∥∗​, imposes it only for i∈[N]pi \in [N]_pi∈[N]p​, and adds (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗≥t(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* \ge t(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​≥t for every ppp.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 655)

XDR(S)={x∈X:∃ (z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \exists\,(z, r, t) \text{ satisfying (20b)–(20d)}\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:∃(z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.

The goal states equality of feasible sets of xxx. Because the objective c⊤xc^\top xc⊤x depends on xxx alone, this is the paper's "exact reformulation".

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (4b), p. 646: dist⁡(ξ,S(x))=max⁡{0,min⁡p(bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S(x)) = \max\{0, \min_p (b_p^\top\xi + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*\}dist(ξ,S(x))=max{0,minp​(bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​}, where dist⁡(ξ,S)=inf⁡{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∉S}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S) = \inf\{\|\xi - \xi'\| : \xi' \notin \mathcal S\}dist(ξ,S)=inf{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∈/S} is (1).
  2. (3), p. 645: for open S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x), XDR(S)\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)XDR​(S) is the set of x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X admitting t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 with dist⁡(ξi,S(x))≥t−ri\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x)) \ge t - r_idist(ξi​,S(x))≥t−ri​ and ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri\epsilon t \ge \theta + \frac1N\sum_i r_iϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​.
  3. (6), p. 646: XDR(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \text{(5b)–(5e)}\}XDR​(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}.
  4. Theorem 1, p. 648: adding ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k and gi,p(x)+Mzi≥0g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge 0gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥0 to (5) keeps it exact.
  5. Theorem 2, p. 651: replacing MMM in (5e) by hi,ph_{i,p}hi,p​, with the knapsack constraint, keeps it exact.
  6. Lemma 1, p. 653: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), ttt may be taken equal to the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th smallest of the distances dist⁡(ξi,S(x))\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x))dist(ξi​,S(x)).
  7. Proposition 1, p. 654: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), some solution of (17) also satisfies (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗−t≥0(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* - t \ge 0(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​−t≥0 for every ppp.

Milestones 2 and 3 are results of Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann that this paper cites and uses, not results it proves.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the scenario-wise big-M rows of the Wasserstein chance constraint can be replaced by at most ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ rows per ppp, with coefficients computed from the data. Remark 2 of the paper counts at least ((1−ϵ)N−1)P((1-\epsilon)N - 1)P((1−ϵ)N−1)P fewer rows than (17). The reduced form exposes a robust 0–1 substructure, and the paper adapts Atamtürk's valid inequalities for it. Its computational study reports order-of-magnitude speed-ups on stochastic transportation problems.

The results are proved on paper; none is machine-checked. The formalization would give a verified chain from the Wasserstein worst-case probability to a finite mixed-integer system. Milestone (3), the dual reformulation, is reusable for any distributionally robust chance constraint over a 1-Wasserstein ball around an empirical distribution, and (4b) for any polyhedral safety set. A second formalization layer would verify the order-statistic arguments (Lemma 1, Proposition 1) used throughout the quantile-strengthening literature.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts — Theorems 1–3 given (3) and (4b) — are finite case analyses on zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}, but each step relies on order statistics of the sample with ties. Lemma 1 rests on the paper's "without loss of generality, sort the distances", and a formal proof must handle ties and the floor ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ exactly. The paper's proof of Theorem 2 argues "at optimality"; for a statement about feasible sets that argument has to be replaced by an explicit choice of zzz.

The hard step is (3). It exchanges a supremum over all Borel probability measures in a Wasserstein ball for a scalar system. The naive attempt, which perturbs PN\mathbb P_NPN​ by moving mass from the samples to the nearest unsafe points, proves only one inclusion. The other needs strong duality for worst-case probabilities over transport balls, together with attainment of the dual infimum, which uses θ>0\theta > 0θ>0.

Formalization scope

  • The ξ-space is a type E with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E] and its Borel σ-algebra. The norm is arbitrary, not the sup norm of Fin K → ℝ.
  • Each bpb_pbp​ is a continuous linear functional (StrongDual ℝ E), so ∥bp∥∗\|b_p\|_*∥bp​∥∗​ is its operator norm.
  • Decisions are Fin L → ℝ, with ap⊤xa_p^\top xap⊤​x written a p ⬝ᵥ x. Indices are 0-based.
  • The worst-case probability is the published ModelRiskOT.WorstProb.worstProb with cost ∥u−v∥\|u - v\|∥u−v∥, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], around the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.empiricalDistribution.
  • The distance (1) is Metric.infDist.
  • Binaries are reals with zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}.
  • Order statistics sort the multiset of values, so ties count with multiplicity.

Standing assumptions and pins in every statement:

  • N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 (p. 645);
  • P≥1P \ge 1P≥1 and bp≠0b_p \neq 0bp​=0, which (4) needs;
  • for every statement involving MMM, one bound ∣bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x∣/∥bp∥∗≤M|b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x|/\|b_p\|_* \le M∣bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x∣/∥bp​∥∗​≤M over x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X and all i,pi, pi,p. This is Remark 1's (10), taken uniform in iii. It replaces the compactness of X\mathcal XX assumed on p. 642, which is not assumed;
  • for the general-S\mathcal SS milestone (3), S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) open with nonempty complement.

In (17b), the printed "(5b)–(5d) and (5c)" is read as "(5b)–(5d) and (8c)", following the proof of Theorem 2 and (20b).

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out:

  • an empty or degenerate ball: N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 makes PN\mathbb P_NPN​ a probability measure inside its own ball;
  • a junk distance: the unsafe set is nonempty under the pins, so infDist never sees the empty set;
  • a junk order statistic: the rank kkk is below NNN;
  • a fixed norm;
  • a relaxation of zzz to [0,1][0,1][0,1], which is a different theorem.

Welcome contributions:

  • the 1-Wasserstein duality for indicator losses on empirical distributions;
  • order-statistic lemmas for the multiset sort;
  • the distance from a point to the complement of an open polyhedron in a normed space.

Selected references

  • N. Ho-Nguyen, F. Kılınç-Karzan, S. Küçükyavuz, D. Lee, Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs with right-hand side uncertainty under Wasserstein ambiguity, Mathematical Programming Ser. B 196 (2022) 641–672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y
  • Z. Chen, D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, Data-driven chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls, Operations Research (2024); preprint 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.00210
  • W. Xie, On distributionally robust chance constrained programs with Wasserstein distance, Mathematical Programming 186 (2021) 115–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying distributional model risk via optimal transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44 (2019) 565–600. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • A. Atamtürk, Strong formulations of robust mixed 0–1 programming, Mathematical Programming 108 (2006) 235–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0709-5
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 5: Worst-Case Displacements √δ G_δ Grow Monotonically in δ Along Straight LinesResearch Paper

Why radius sensitivity matters

A distributionally robust decision evaluates a rule against every data distribution within a specified transport budget of a baseline law. The budget is a modeling choice: increasing it expresses more uncertainty about the data. A robust objective value can increase with that budget, but the value alone does not describe how the adverse distribution changes. For a fixed linear decision, Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang identify the worst-case distribution and ask what happens to each observation as the budget increases. Their Theorem 7 gives a sample-wise answer in a small-radius regime: adverse observations move along straight lines, and their distance from the original observations grows monotonically.

This matters when a robust solution is interpreted through its adverse scenarios. The result says that two nearby ambiguity budgets do not produce unrelated worst-case data sets. They produce a coherent family of transported observations whose directions are determined by the sign of the loss derivative. The theorem is a structural property of an optimal-transport ambiguity set, beyond a bound on its optimal value. It appears in a paper that also develops dual formulas and iterative optimization schemes for the same model Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang, 2022.

Model and notation

Let XXX take values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd with baseline law P0P_0P0​. A decision β\betaβ belongs to a convex set B⊆RdB\subseteq\mathbb R^dB⊆Rd and incurs loss ℓ(β⊤X)\ell(\beta^\top X)ℓ(β⊤X). At each source point xxx, a positive-definite matrix A(x)A(x)A(x) defines the transport cost

c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).c(x,x')=(x-x')^\top A(x)(x-x').c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).

The matrix may depend on xxx, so movement can be cheaper in different directions and at different observations. The model requires lower semicontinuity of ccc and almost-sure lower and upper spectral bounds for A(x)A(x)A(x). A distribution PPP is within the ambiguity ball of radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0 when it can be coupled with P0P_0P0​ at expected cost at most δ\deltaδ. The worst-case objective is the supremum of EP[ℓ(β⊤X)]E_P[\ell(\beta^\top X)]EP​[ℓ(β⊤X)] over that ball. In Lean, the equivalent coupling formulation records a joint law π\piπ with first marginal P0P_0P0​, second marginal PPP, and cost at most δ\deltaδ.

The paper reduces the worst-case calculation to a dual objective fδ(β,λ)f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)fδ​(β,λ), where λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 prices the transport budget. Its pointwise term ℓrob(β,λ;x)\ell_{\rm rob}(\beta,\lambda;x)ℓrob​(β,λ;x) is the supremum over a scalar γ\gammaγ of the function F(γ,β,λ;x)F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;x)F(γ,β,λ;x) in display (7). The set of maximizing scalars is Γ∗(β,λ;x)\Gamma^*(\beta,\lambda;x)Γ∗(β,λ;x). A scalar maximizer Gδ(x)G_\delta(x)Gδ​(x) produces a transported observation

Xδ∗=x+δ Gδ(x)A(x)−1β.X^*_\delta=x+\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta(x)A(x)^{-1}\beta.Xδ∗​=x+δ​Gδ​(x)A(x)−1β.

Assumptions 2–4 require a convex loss with controlled growth, a fourth moment of P0P_0P0​, bounded second derivatives of the loss, a nondegenerate loss derivative, and compactness of BBB. The statement here also uses Assumption 5, local strong convexity with a positive-probability nondegeneracy condition. The paper’s proof of Theorem 7 uses that condition through its small-radius strong-convexity result Theorems 4 and 7.

Formalization targets

For each fixed β∈B∖{0}\beta\in B\setminus\{0\}β∈B∖{0}, the goal asserts that there is a common threshold δ1>0\delta_1>0δ1​>0 and a family GδG_\deltaGδ​ such that the law of Xδ∗X^*_\deltaXδ∗​ is the unique worst-case distribution for every 0<δ<δ10<\delta<\delta_10<δ<δ1​. For any pair 0<δ<δ′<δ10<\delta<\delta'<\delta_10<δ<δ′<δ1​, it asserts, P0P_0P0​-almost surely,

0<δ Gδ<δ′ Gδ′if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,δ′ Gδ′<δ Gδ<0if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,Gδ=0if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.\begin{aligned} 0&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<\sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'} &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)>0,\\ \sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'}&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)<0,\\ G_\delta&=0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)=0. \end{aligned}0δ′​Gδ′​Gδ​​<δ​Gδ​<δ′​Gδ′​<δ​Gδ​<0=0​​if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.​

Consequently,

∥Xδ∗−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗−X∥.\|X^*_\delta-X\|\le\|X^*_{\delta'}-X\|.∥Xδ∗​−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗​−X∥.

The goal keeps the uniqueness and primal attainment clauses together with these comparisons. The milestones follow the paper’s prerequisites: the optimizer and curvature bounds of Proposition 9, the unique worst-case law of Theorem 6(e), uniqueness of the dual minimizer at small radius, and the sign of the pointwise maximizer. Each has its own statement so solvers can use it elsewhere.

What the result establishes

The theorem gives a consistent interpretation of changes in the ambiguity radius. If the loss increases locally in the decision direction, an adverse observation moves farther in that direction; if the loss decreases, it moves farther in the opposite direction; at a stationary score it stays put. The corresponding displacement norm is monotone for each radius pair, almost surely. This is stronger than monotonicity of the worst-case objective value: it describes the geometry of a family of optimizers, not only their values.

The paper proves the result in §5.4. The work of this mission is to formalize its hypotheses, optimality claims, and sample-wise inequalities in Lean. The published ModelRiskOT.Duality coupling definitions already give a reusable primal interface; this mission adds the state-dependent quadratic cost, the scalar dual model, its small-radius regions, and the comparative-statics statements. The proof obligations remain open in this draft. Their formalization would also make the dual optimizer bounds and the deterministic transport representation reusable in later optimal-transport DRO developments.

Where the mathematical difficulty sits

The worst-case value being monotone in δ\deltaδ does not force a particular worst-case distribution, or each observation in one, to move monotonically. The theorem needs a unique worst-case law and a coherent choice of pointwise maximizers as δ\deltaδ varies. The scalar maximizer depends on both the radius and the dual price, while the optimal dual price itself changes with the radius. The paper’s small-radius conditions keep this joint variation controlled. Without uniqueness, two optimal laws could differ even at the same radius, and a sample-wise comparison would have no fixed object to compare.

The result also involves several layers of almost-sure reasoning. Spectral bounds on A(x)A(x)A(x) hold only outside a null set; the relevant maximizer and its transported law must be measurable enough to define pushforwards and expectations. These conditions must be carried through the theorem without silently replacing an almost-sure claim by a pointwise one.

Formalization scope

Vectors use EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and the baseline is a Borel probability measure. The decision set is convex and compact and is explicitly nonempty. Assumption 1 gives positive definiteness of A(x)A(x)A(x) everywhere, lower semicontinuity of the cost, and almost-sure uniform spectral bounds. The loss satisfies Assumptions 2–5. The fourth moment in Assumption 2 and the bounds on ℓ′′\ell''ℓ′′ control the integrals used by the dual theory. A positive ambiguity radius is required whenever its square root appears.

The dual terms ℓrob\ell_{\rm rob}ℓrob​ and fδf_\deltafδ​ use extended-real values, since the pointwise supremum can be infinite. The worst-case value is a supremum over feasible couplings, with signed loss integrated using the published extended-real integral. A graph coupling witnesses attainment, and every optimal coupling must have the same second marginal. This ties the family GδG_\deltaGδ​ to the actual worst-case distribution rather than an arbitrary monotone scalar field. Almost-everywhere measurability of GδG_\deltaGδ​ and the transport map is part of the conclusion.

The radius δ\deltaδ varies inside the goal. The threshold δ1\delta_1δ1​ is chosen before any radius pair, and the comparisons are stated almost surely for each pair. The paper prints Theorem 7 under Assumptions 1–4 while referring to δ1\delta_1δ1​ and invoking Theorem 4, which uses Assumption 5; this mission includes Assumption 5 explicitly. It also reads the singleton clause of Theorem 6(e) almost surely, because its threshold is an essential supremum, and uses a non-strict lower curvature bound in Proposition 9(b), as its proof permits. Contributions on the small-radius dual theory, measurable maximizers, primal attainment, and the radius comparisons are all within scope.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, and F. Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3.
  • J. Blanchet and K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2.
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 1: An Optimal Martingale Transport Plan Is Concentrated on a Borel Set No Finite Rerouting ImprovesResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical optimal transport, a transport plan that minimizes the total cost is characterized through its support: an optimal plan is ccc-cyclically monotone, meaning that no finite collection of its transported particles can be re-paired more cheaply (Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, 2009, Ch. 4–5). This pointwise criterion is how most structural results in optimal transport are proved: it is what turns a global minimization over measures into a statement about finitely many points.

The martingale transport problem adds a constraint motivated by mathematical finance: the plan must be the law of a one-step martingale (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y) with given marginals X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν. Its value gives model-independent bounds on the price of an exotic option whose payoff is the cost function, given the prices of all vanilla options at two dates (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices, Finance Stoch. 2013). Because the martingale constraint ties together all points with the same first coordinate, the classical re-pairing argument does not carry over: swapping two destinations generally destroys the martingale property.

M. Beiglböck and N. Juillet (On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016; arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove a martingale replacement for ccc-cyclical monotonicity, the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11). It is the tool from which they derive the left-monotone structure of optimal plans, the uniqueness of the left-curtain coupling as optimizer for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, and the support bounds for optimizers. This mission is the first of a series formalizing that paper.

Setting

All measures live on R\mathbb RR or R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras. Two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R.

A transport plan is a measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ and second marginal ν\nuν. It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if under π\piπ the conditional mean of yyy given xxx equals xxx; equivalently,

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho .∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.

A cost is a Borel function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R satisfying the sufficient integrability condition c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) with a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then the cost of a plan, ∫c dπ\int c\,d\pi∫cdπ, is well defined in (−∞,+∞](-\infty,+\infty](−∞,+∞]. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if ∫c dπ≤∫c dπ′\int c\,d\pi\le\int c\,d\pi'∫cdπ≤∫cdπ′ for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν), and it leads to finite costs if ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞.

A measure α′\alpha'α′ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a competitor of α\alphaα (Definition 1.10) if it has the same two marginals as α\alphaα and the same conditional barycentres: ∫y dαx(y)=∫y dαx′(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)=\int y\,d\alpha'_x(y)∫ydαx​(y)=∫ydαx′​(y) for almost every xxx, where (αx)(\alpha_x)(αx​), (αx′)(\alpha'_x)(αx′​) are disintegrations with respect to the first marginal. A competitor redistributes the mass of α\alphaα in a way that a martingale plan could absorb: replacing a piece α\alphaα of a martingale plan by α′\alpha'α′ keeps both marginals and the martingale property.

Formalization targets

Goal: the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11, p. 8)

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be probability measures, ccc a Borel cost satisfying the sufficient integrability condition, and π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) optimal with ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞. Then there is a Borel set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 with π(Γ)=1\pi(\Gamma)=1π(Γ)=1 such that

∫c dα≤∫c dα′for every finitely supported α with spt⁡α⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.\int c\,d\alpha\le\int c\,d\alpha'\quad\text{for every finitely supported }\alpha\text{ with }\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gamma\text{ and every competitor }\alpha'\text{ of }\alpha .∫cdα≤∫cdα′for every finitely supported α with sptα⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.

The set Γ\GammaΓ is chosen once, before α\alphaα; the quantifier order is the content.

Milestones

The milestones are the steps of the paper's proof (§3, pp. 16–19), in attack order:

  1. Theorem 3.1 (p. 17), Kellerer's duality in the form of Beiglböck–Goldstern–Maresch–Schachermayer: for a Polish probability space (Z,ζ)(Z,\zeta)(Z,ζ) and a Borel M⊆ZnM\subseteq Z^nM⊆Zn, either M⊆⋃iMiM\subseteq\bigcup_i M_iM⊆⋃i​Mi​ with ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0, or some measure γ\gammaγ with γ(M)>0\gamma(M)>0γ(M)>0 has all marginals ≤ζ\le\zeta≤ζ.
  2. The set M⊆(R2)nM\subseteq(\mathbb R^2)^nM⊆(R2)n of nnn-tuples carrying a non-optimal finite measure is Borel (p. 17).
  3. In case (1), a Borel Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ of full π\piπ-measure supports no improvable α\alphaα with ∣spt⁡α∣≤n|\operatorname{spt}\alpha|\le n∣sptα∣≤n (p. 18).
  4. Every finitely supported α\alphaα has a cost-minimizing competitor (p. 18).
  5. If ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π and a competitor ω′\omega'ω′ is cheaper than ω\omegaω, then π−ω+ω′\pi-\omega+\omega'π−ω+ω′ is a cheaper martingale plan (p. 18).
  6. For an optimal π\piπ of finite cost, case (2) cannot occur (pp. 18–19).
  7. Γ=⋂nΓn\Gamma=\bigcap_n\Gamma_nΓ=⋂n​Γn​ is as required (p. 17).

Significance

The result. The variational lemma converts optimality of a martingale plan, a property of a measure, into a condition on finite configurations of points in its support. In the paper it is applied, together with a lemma on accumulation points of sections (Lemma 3.2), to show that optimizers for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex are left-monotone, which by the paper's Theorem 1.5 identifies them as the left-curtain coupling; it also yields the bound ∣spt⁡πx∣≤k|\operatorname{spt}\pi_x|\le k∣sptπx​∣≤k of Theorem 7.1 and the two-graph structure of the optimizers for ±∣y−x∣\pm|y-x|±∣y−x∣. Later missions of this series use it as a milestone. Its converse, under continuity assumptions, is the separate Lemma A.2 of the paper's appendix.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization needs a usable form of Kellerer's duality for multi-marginal problems, which is not in Mathlib, and the bookkeeping that finite rearrangements of a martingale plan stay in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). Both are reusable well beyond this paper: Kellerer's theorem underlies the analogous results for classical, multi-marginal and martingale transport.

Difficulty

The classical proof of ccc-cyclical monotonicity perturbs an optimal plan by moving a small amount of mass around a finite cycle of its support points. For martingale plans this fails: the perturbation must preserve the conditional barycentre of every xxx, and mass sitting at isolated points of a non-atomic plan cannot be moved without moving mass at uncountably many other points. The proof therefore cannot argue point by point. It works with whole families of bad configurations at once, which requires the measure-theoretic duality of Kellerer (resting on Choquet's capacitability theorem) and a measurable choice of an optimal competitor for each configuration. Proving that the set of bad configurations is Borel, and that a positive-mass family of them can be glued into a cheaper competitor ω′\omega'ω′ of a piece ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π, is the technical core.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). Costs and integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published definition ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); no Bochner integral of a possibly non-integrable function is compared. Martingale plans and competitors are encoded through test functions ρ(x)\rho(x)ρ(x) (the paper's characterization (4), p. 10) instead of disintegrations. A finitely supported finite measure is written ∑s∈Swsδs\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_s∑s∈S​ws​δs​ with SSS a finite set and weights ws≥0w_s\ge0ws​≥0; this covers every such measure, and masses are taken finite. (R2)n(\mathbb R^2)^n(R2)n is Fin n → ℝ × ℝ.

Committed conventions and disclosed additions:

  • the goal's hypothesis "leads to finite costs" is ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞; without it, a cost under which every plan has infinite cost makes optimality empty;
  • Theorem 3.1 is stated for Borel MMM, the case proved in the cited source and the only case the paper uses; ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0 is the outer measure, since the projections need not be Borel;
  • in milestone 3, Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ is a Borel subset of the paper's R2∖N\mathbb R^2\setminus NR2∖N of full measure, because NNN need not be Borel;
  • milestone 4 states, for the uniform measure αp\alpha_pαp​ on the points of an nnn-tuple ppp, both that an optimal competitor αp′\alpha'_pαp′​ exists and that it can be chosen measurably in ppp (p. 18), with Mathlib's σ-algebra on the space of measures.

A formalization in which Γ\GammaΓ is empty or π\piπ-null, or in which Γ\GammaΓ is allowed to depend on α\alphaα, is trivial and is ruled out by the statement: π(Γc)=0\pi(\Gamma^c)=0π(Γc)=0 and ∃Γ ∀α\exists\Gamma\,\forall\alpha∃Γ∀α. The competitor α′\alpha'α′ ranges over all measures, not only finitely supported ones.

Welcome contributions: a general form of Kellerer's duality theorem (milestone 1), the Borel-measurability of the bad set, and the gluing step of milestone 6.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
  • H. G. Kellerer, Duality theorems for marginal problems, Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 67(4), 399–432, 1984. doi:10.1007/BF00532047
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, Springer, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing 1: The NEST Framing Algorithm Earns at Least 6/π² of the Optimal Expected Revenue When Page Views Are NBUEResearch Paper

Product framing in online retail

An online retailer does not show its catalogue at once. Products are arranged on a sequence of pages, and a consumer looks at the first few pages and then chooses among what she has seen, or leaves. Where a product is placed therefore decides whether it is considered at all. Gallego, Li, Truong and Wang (Operations Research, 2020) call the placement decision product framing. They show that the optimal framing problem is NP-hard even with two pages and a multinomial logit choice model, and give polynomial-time framing algorithms with constant performance guarantees.

The paper builds on the assortment optimization literature, where a seller chooses one set of products to offer under a choice model, and on work in which consideration sets depend on how products are presented. Davis, Topaloglu and Williamson (2015) studied a sequential assortment problem in which products are added over time. Two of their results, on how per-product revenue behaves when products are removed, are the structural inputs of this mission. Aouad and Segev (2016) studied a variant with one product per page under the MNL model, in which every product must be displayed.

Setting

There are nnn products [n]={1,…,n}[n]=\{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n}, and product iii earns unit revenue rir_iri​. The products are placed on mmm pages, each holding at most ppp products, and a product may be left undisplayed. A consumer views the first XXX pages, where X∈[m]X\in[m]X∈[m] is random with law λ(x)=P[X=x]\lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X=x]λ(x)=P[X=x] and tail Λ(x)=P[X≥x]\Lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X\ge x]Λ(x)=P[X≥x], independent of the framing. Her consideration set is the set of products on pages 1,…,X1,\dots,X1,…,X.

A choice model gives, for each consideration set S⊆[n]S\subseteq[n]S⊆[n], purchase probabilities P(i,S)≥0P(i,S)\ge0P(i,S)≥0 with P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0 for i∉Si\notin Si∈/S and ∑i∈SP(i,S)≤1\sum_{i\in S}P(i,S)\le1∑i∈S​P(i,S)≤1. The expected revenue of SSS is R(S)=∑i∈SriP(i,S)R(S)=\sum_{i\in S}r_iP(i,S)R(S)=∑i∈S​ri​P(i,S). The optimal framing value is

VOPT=max⁡framings ∑x∈[m]λ(x) R(products on pages 1,…,x),V^{OPT}=\max_{\text{framings}}\ \sum_{x\in[m]}\lambda(x)\,R(\text{products on pages }1,\dots,x),VOPT=framingsmax​ x∈[m]∑​λ(x)R(products on pages 1,…,x),

the maximum over all placements with at most ppp products per page (problem (1)). The cardinality-constrained assortment problem is G(c)=max⁡∣S∣≤cR(S)G(c)=\max_{|S|\le c}R(S)G(c)=max∣S∣≤c​R(S) (problem (2)), and U(x)=G(x⋅p)U(x)=G(x\cdot p)U(x)=G(x⋅p) is the best revenue from a consumer who sees xxx pages.

The analysis rests on three assumptions:

  • A1: P(i,S)≥P(i,T)P(i,S)\ge P(i,T)P(i,S)≥P(i,T) whenever i∈S⊆Ti\in S\subseteq Ti∈S⊆T, a property of every random utility model.
  • A2: problem (2) can be solved, here exactly.
  • A3: XXX is new better than used in expectation (NBUE): q(x)=E[X−x+1∣X≥x]≤q(1)=E[X]q(x)=\mathbb E[X-x+1\mid X\ge x]\le q(1)=\mathbb E[X]q(x)=E[X−x+1∣X≥x]≤q(1)=E[X] for all x∈[m]x\in[m]x∈[m].

The algorithm NEST(yyy), for y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m], first takes an optimal solution S(y)S(y)S(y) of (2) with bound y⋅py\cdot py⋅p. Then, for x=y−1x=y-1x=y−1 down to 111, it chooses S(x)⊆S(x+1)S(x)\subseteq S(x+1)S(x)⊆S(x+1) of size min⁡(∣S(x+1)∣,xp)\min(|S(x+1)|,xp)min(∣S(x+1)∣,xp) whose per-product revenue R(S(x))/∣S(x)∣R(S(x))/|S(x)|R(S(x))/∣S(x)∣ is at least that of S(x+1)S(x+1)S(x+1). Page xxx displays S(x)∖S(x−1)S(x)\setminus S(x-1)S(x)∖S(x−1), and pages after yyy stay blank. VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) is the expected revenue of this framing, and VNEST=max⁡y∈[m]VNEST(y)V^{NEST}=\max_{y\in[m]}V^{NEST(y)}VNEST=maxy∈[m]​VNEST(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 10)

VNEST ≥ 6π2 VOPTV^{NEST}\ \ge\ \frac{6}{\pi^2}\,V^{OPT}VNEST ≥ π26​VOPT

The goal holds under A1, A2 with ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0 and A3, for every run of NEST(yyy), y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m]. Here 6/π2≈0.6086/\pi^2\approx0.6086/π2≈0.608.

Milestones

The milestones are the numbered results the proof of Theorem 3 uses, in the order it uses them:

  1. Theorem 2, the clairvoyant bound VOPT≤E[U(X)]V^{OPT}\le\mathbb E[U(X)]VOPT≤E[U(X)].
  2. Lemma 1, from Davis et al.: some product can be removed from any SSS with ∣S∣≥2|S|\ge2∣S∣≥2 without lowering R(S)/∣S∣R(S)/|S|R(S)/∣S∣.
  3. The existence of a NEST(yyy) run.
  4. Proposition 1: VNEST(y)≥U(y)yE[min⁡(X,y)]V^{NEST(y)}\ge\frac{U(y)}{y}\mathbb E[\min(X,y)]VNEST(y)≥yU(y)​E[min(X,y)].
  5. Lemma 2, from Davis et al.: U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is decreasing.
  6. Propositions 2 and 3, on the bound-revealing program (5),
γ=min⁡U,Λ max⁡x∈[m]U(x)x E[min⁡(X,x)],\gamma=\min_{U,\Lambda}\ \max_{x\in[m]}\frac{U(x)}{x}\,\mathbb E[\min(X,x)],γ=U,Λmin​ x∈[m]max​xU(x)​E[min(X,x)],

taken over NBUE tails Λ\LambdaΛ and functions U≥0U\ge0U≥0 that are increasing with U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x decreasing and E[U(X)]=1\mathbb E[U(X)]=1E[U(X)]=1. Proposition 3 states 1/γ=max⁡ΛE[X/E[min⁡(X,Y)∣X]]1/\gamma=\max_\Lambda\mathbb E[X/\mathbb E[\min(X,Y)\mid X]]1/γ=maxΛ​E[X/E[min(X,Y)∣X]]. 7. Lemma 7 and Corollaries 5–6, comparing NBUE XXX with an exponential variable of the same mean. 8. The evaluation E[W/(μ(1−e−W/μ))]=π2/6\mathbb E[W/(\mu(1-e^{-W/\mu}))]=\pi^2/6E[W/(μ(1−e−W/μ))]=π2/6 for WWW exponential with mean μ\muμ. 9. The bound γ≥6/π2\gamma\ge6/\pi^2γ≥6/π2.

Significance

Theorem 3 gives a constant-factor guarantee for a problem that is NP-hard under the same assumptions. The constant does not depend on the choice model beyond A1, on the number of pages, or on the page capacity, and the paper shows it is tight relative to the upper bound E[U(X)]\mathbb E[U(X)]E[U(X)] (Proposition 4, in the geometric limit). NEST needs only a cardinality-constrained assortment oracle, which exists in polynomial time for the MNL and nested logit models. The same bound-revealing program, problem (5), is reused in the paper for joint framing and pricing (Theorem 7).

The paper proves the result in full. No part of it has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes the model and states the guarantee and every intermediate result. The proofs combine finite combinatorics (Lemmas 1 and 2, Proposition 1) with a comparison of a discrete NBUE law against the exponential distribution, and that comparison is reusable for other approximation analyses with the same structure. The equality of the exponential integral with ∑kk−2\sum_k k^{-2}∑k​k−2 connects to Mathlib's hasSum_zeta_two.

Difficulty

The upper bound (Theorem 2) and the lower bound (Proposition 1) are each elementary. The difficulty is to compare them uniformly over all choice models and all NBUE page-count laws. The ratio of max⁡yU(y)yE[min⁡(X,y)]\max_y\frac{U(y)}{y}\mathbb E[\min(X,y)]maxy​yU(y)​E[min(X,y)] to E[U(X)]\mathbb E[U(X)]E[U(X)] depends on the whole function UUU and the whole law of XXX, and the worst case cannot be read off from any single instance. Replacing the instance by the program (5) removes the choice model. Bounding the program still requires an optimization over distributions, and its value is attained only in a limit (Proposition 4).

The comparison with the exponential law goes through the increasing convex order. Here XXX is a discrete law on {1,…,m}\{1,\dots,m\}{1,…,m} and the comparison variable is continuous. The function h(x)=x/E[min⁡(Z,x)]h(x)=x/\mathbb E[\min(Z,x)]h(x)=x/E[min(Z,x)] to which Lemma 7 is applied is increasing and convex only on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), so a formal argument has to track the domain.

Formalization scope

Theorem numbers and pages are those of the authors' accepted manuscript (49 pp.), which differ from the journal typesetting. The conventions are:

  • Products are Fin n. Pages are the naturals 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m, kept 1-based, with m,p≥1m,p\ge1m,p≥1.
  • A framing is a map Fin n → ℕ: page 000 means "not displayed", and each page 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m holds at most ppp products. VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT is the maximum over the finite, nonempty set of feasible framings.
  • The law λ\lambdaλ is a function on [1,m][1,m][1,m], and Λ\LambdaΛ, E[min⁡(X,x)]\mathbb E[\min(X,x)]E[min(X,x)] and E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] are finite sums. A3 is the paper's own qqq-form, and a conditional expectation on a null event imposes nothing.
  • The exponential law is Mathlib's expMeasure with rate 1/E[X]1/\mathbb E[X]1/E[X]. The independence in Corollary 6 is encoded by iterated integrals.
  • The revenues are assumed nonnegative ("unit profit or revenue"). Lemma 1 fails for negative revenues.
  • A2 is taken with ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0, as the paper does after p. 8, and polynomial time is not modelled.
  • "Increasing" and "decreasing" are weak.

NEST makes arbitrary choices, so a run is a predicate on its output. Theorem 3 is stated for every family of runs, and a separate milestone shows that runs exist. The value VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) is the expected revenue of the framing the run actually displays, not the closed form ∑xλ(x)R(S(min⁡(x,y)))\sum_x\lambda(x)R(S(\min(x,y)))∑x​λ(x)R(S(min(x,y))), whose equality with it is part of the proof of Proposition 1. A formalization that quantified over some run, that defined VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) by that closed form, or that assumed Lemma 2 for UUU would not be Theorem 3.

Program (5) is stated with its tail variable Λ\LambdaΛ and law λ(x)=Λ(x)−Λ(x+1)\lambda(x)=\Lambda(x)-\Lambda(x+1)λ(x)=Λ(x)−Λ(x+1), Λ(m+1)=0\Lambda(m+1)=0Λ(m+1)=0. The page's typos are corrected in the statements and recorded in the notes: "E[U(x)]=1\mathbb E[U(x)]=1E[U(x)]=1" in (5), and the right-hand side of Corollary 5. Proposition 2 is formalized in its existential reading: some optimal solution of (5) has constant U(x)xE[min⁡(X,x)]\frac{U(x)}{x}\mathbb E[\min(X,x)]xU(x)​E[min(X,x)].

A complete development needs:

  • finite assortment combinatorics;
  • the finite program (5) and its compactness;
  • the increasing convex order between a discrete NBUE law and the exponential, through integrated tails;
  • the integral ∫0∞ue−u/(1−e−u) du=π2/6\int_0^\infty ue^{-u}/(1-e^{-u})\,du=\pi^2/6∫0∞​ue−u/(1−e−u)du=π2/6.

The exponential comparison and the integral are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, including alternative proofs of Lemmas 1 and 2 from A1.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, A. Li, V.-A. Truong, X. Wang, Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing, Operations Research, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1875
  • J. M. Davis, H. Topaloglu, D. P. Williamson, Assortment optimization over time, Operations Research Letters 43(6), 608–611, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2015.08.007
  • A. Aouad, D. Segev, Display optimization for vertically differentiated locations under multinomial logit choice preferences, working paper, 2016 (as cited in the paper; later published in Management Science).
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
16 thms1 active userReviewed
OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal 2: The Relative-Entropy Robust Predictor–Prescriptor Pair Is Strongly Optimal among Data-Driven PairsResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker wants to choose xxx in a compact set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn to minimize an expected cost c(x,P⋆)=EP⋆[γ(x,ξ)]c(x,\mathbb P^\star)=\mathbb E_{\mathbb P^\star}[\gamma(x,\xi)]c(x,P⋆)=EP⋆​[γ(x,ξ)], but the distribution P⋆\mathbb P^\starP⋆ of ξ\xiξ is unknown; only independent samples ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​ are available. The standard remedy, minimizing the cost under the empirical distribution, is known to produce decisions whose realized cost exceeds the in-sample estimate: the "optimizer's curse" of decision analysis (Smith and Winkler, 2006) and overfitting in statistics. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces the empirical distribution by a worst case over a set of nearby distributions. Many such sets have been proposed, and the question of which one is best has no answer unless "best" is made precise.

Van Parys, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118v3, published in Management Science 67(6), 2021) give such a precise meaning. They ask for the least conservative data-driven decision rule whose out-of-sample disappointment decays exponentially at a prescribed rate rrr under every possible data-generating distribution, and they prove that DRO over a relative-entropy ball of radius rrr is that rule. This mission formalizes the prescription half of the result (Theorem 7 of the paper), in which decisions, not only cost estimates, are optimized. The prediction half (Theorem 4) is the subject of mission 1 of this series, and the extension to continuous state spaces (Theorem 10) is mission 3. All page and result numbers below refer to the arXiv version v3 (22 Dec 2019).

Setting

The random parameter takes values in a finite set Ξ={1,…,d}\Xi=\{1,\dots,d\}Ξ={1,…,d}. The model class is the probability simplex P={P∈R+d:∑iP(i)=1}\mathcal P=\{\mathbb P\in\mathbb R^d_+:\sum_i\mathbb P(i)=1\}P={P∈R+d​:∑i​P(i)=1} with the topology inherited from Rd\mathbb R^dRd. The cost γ(x,i)\gamma(x,i)γ(x,i) is continuous in xxx for each iii, and c(x,P)=∑iP(i)γ(x,i)c(x,\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P(i)\gamma(x,i)c(x,P)=∑i​P(i)γ(x,i). From a sample path the decision maker forms the empirical distribution P^T(i)=1T∑t=1T1ξt=i\hat{\mathbb P}_T(i)=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb 1_{\xi_t=i}P^T​(i)=T1​∑t=1T​1ξt​=i​. When the samples are drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the probability of an event about P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​ is written P∞(⋅)\mathbb P^\infty(\cdot)P∞(⋅).

A data-driven predictor is a continuous function c^:X×P→R\hat c:X\times\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rc^:X×P→R; c^(x,P^T)\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)c^(x,P^T​) estimates c(x,P⋆)c(x,\mathbb P^\star)c(x,P⋆). A function f:P→Xf:\mathcal P\to Xf:P→X is quasi-continuous if for every P\mathbb PP, every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 and every neighbourhood UUU of P\mathbb PP there is a non-empty open V⊆UV\subseteq UV⊆U on which ∥f(P)−f(Q)∥≤ϵ\|f(\mathbb P)-f(\mathbb Q)\|\le\epsilon∥f(P)−f(Q)∥≤ϵ (the set VVV need not contain P\mathbb PP). A data-driven prescriptor induced by c^\hat cc^ is a quasi-continuous x^:P→X\hat x:\mathcal P\to Xx^:P→X with x^(P′)∈arg⁡min⁡x∈Xc^(x,P′)\hat x(\mathbb P')\in\arg\min_{x\in X}\hat c(x,\mathbb P')x^(P′)∈argminx∈X​c^(x,P′) for every P′\mathbb P'P′. The family X\mathcal XX consists of all such pairs (c^,x^)(\hat c,\hat x)(c^,x^).

The prescription disappointment of a pair under a model P\mathbb PP is

P∞(c(x^(P^T),P)>c^(x^(P^T),P^T)),\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big),P∞(c(x^(P^T​),P)>c^(x^(P^T​),P^T​)),

the probability that the true cost of the prescribed decision exceeds its in-sample estimate. Pairs are ordered by their in-sample optimal values: (c^1,x^1)⪯X(c^2,x^2)(\hat c_1,\hat x_1)\preceq_{\mathcal X}(\hat c_2,\hat x_2)(c^1​,x^1​)⪯X​(c^2​,x^2​) iff c^1(x^1(P′),P′)≤c^2(x^2(P′),P′)\hat c_1(\hat x_1(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')\le\hat c_2(\hat x_2(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')c^1​(x^1​(P′),P′)≤c^2​(x^2​(P′),P′) for all P′\mathbb P'P′. Problem (6) of the paper is the vector optimization problem

min⁡(c^,x^)∈X⪯X (c^,x^)s.t.lim sup⁡T→∞1Tlog⁡P∞(c(x^(P^T),P)>c^(x^(P^T),P^T))≤−r∀ P∈P,\min_{(\hat c,\hat x)\in\mathcal X}{}^{\preceq_{\mathcal X}}\ (\hat c,\hat x)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\log\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le-r\quad\forall\,\mathbb P\in\mathcal P,(c^,x^)∈Xmin​⪯X​ (c^,x^)s.t.T→∞limsup​T1​logP∞(c(x^(P^T​),P)>c^(x^(P^T​),P^T​))≤−r∀P∈P,

and a pair is strongly optimal if it is feasible and ⪯X\preceq_{\mathcal X}⪯X​ every feasible pair.

The relative entropy is I(P′,P)=∑iP′(i)log⁡(P′(i)/P(i))I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P'(i)\log(\mathbb P'(i)/\mathbb P(i))I(P′,P)=∑i​P′(i)log(P′(i)/P(i)), with 0log⁡(0/p)=00\log(0/p)=00log(0/p)=0 and p′log⁡(p′/0)=+∞p'\log(p'/0)=+\inftyp′log(p′/0)=+∞. The distributionally robust predictor and prescriptor are

c^r(x,P′)=sup⁡P∈P{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r},x^r(P′)∈arg⁡min⁡x∈Xc^r(x,P′),\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\sup_{\mathbb P\in\mathcal P}\{c(x,\mathbb P):I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)\le r\},\qquad \hat x_r(\mathbb P')\in\arg\min_{x\in X}\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P'),c^r​(x,P′)=P∈Psup​{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r},x^r​(P′)∈argx∈Xmin​c^r​(x,P′),

with x^r\hat x_rx^r​ quasi-continuous (Definition 7). The estimator realization P′\mathbb P'P′ is the first argument of III, the reverse of the usual Kullback–Leibler ball.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (p. 20)

r>0 ⟹ (c^r,x^r) is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector x^r.r>0\ \Longrightarrow\ (\hat c_r,\hat x_r)\ \text{is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector }\hat x_r .r>0 ⟹ (c^r​,x^r​) is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector x^r​.

Milestones

  1. Proof of Theorem 7, p. 21 (Bledsoe 1952): a quasi-continuous x^:P→X\hat x:\mathcal P\to Xx^:P→X is continuous on a dense subset of P\mathcal PP.
  2. Proof of Theorem 7, p. 21 (Berge 1963): for XXX compact and c^\hat cc^ continuous, P′↦c^(x^(P′),P′)\mathbb P'\mapsto\hat c(\hat x(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')P′↦c^(x^(P′),P′) is continuous for every arg-min selector x^\hat xx^.
  3. Proposition 4, p. 20: for r≥0r\ge0r≥0 a quasi-continuous selector x^r\hat x_rx^r​ exists.
  4. Theorem 6, p. 20: for r≥0r\ge0r≥0, (c^r,x^r)(\hat c_r,\hat x_r)(c^r​,x^r​) is feasible in (6).
  5. Theorem 8, (21), p. 22: P∞(c(x^r(P^T),P)>c^r(x^r(P^T),P^T))≤(T+1)de−rT\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x_r(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c_r(\hat x_r(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le(T+1)^de^{-rT}P∞(c(x^r​(P^T​),P)>c^r​(x^r​(P^T​),P^T​))≤(T+1)de−rT for every T≥1T\ge1T≥1.

Context from mission 1

The proof of Theorem 7 also uses results posed as milestones of mission 1 of this series: the large deviation bounds of Theorem 1, (7a) and (7b) (p. 12); the continuity of c^r\hat c_rc^r​ (Proposition 3, p. 16); the inclusion of the disappointment set in {I(⋅,P)>r}\{I(\cdot,\mathbb P)>r\}{I(⋅,P)>r} from the proof of Theorem 3 (pp. 16–17); and the construction of a perturbed model P2>0\mathbb P_2>0P2​>0 with I(P0′,P2)<rI(\mathbb P'_0,\mathbb P_2)<rI(P0′​,P2​)<r from the proof of Theorem 4 ((14)–(16), pp. 17–18). They are not posed again here.

Significance

Theorem 7 says that no decision rule whose prescriptions disappoint with probability decaying at rate rrr can report a smaller in-sample optimal value than relative-entropy DRO, at any realization of the data. It turns a modelling choice (which ambiguity set to use) into a consequence of a statistical requirement, and it identifies the radius rrr of the ball with the decay rate of the out-of-sample disappointment. Theorem 8 complements this with a finite-sample bound that holds before any data are observed.

The theorem is proved in the paper, and its proof is short given the earlier results; there is no machine-checked version. A complete formalization adds a finite-alphabet Sanov theorem with the infinity convention of the relative entropy, an elementary theory of quasi-continuous functions on the simplex (density of continuity points, selection of quasi-continuous minimizers from an upper semicontinuous arg-min map), and Berge's maximum theorem in the form used here. The paper itself only sketches several steps (the construction of P1,P2\mathbb P_1,\mathbb P_2P1​,P2​ "exactly as in the proof of Theorem 4", and the proof of Theorem 8 is omitted).

Difficulty

Theorem 7 does not follow from the predictor result (Theorem 4). The order ⪯X\preceq_{\mathcal X}⪯X​ compares only the in-sample optimal values, so a competing pair may use a predictor that lies below c^r\hat c_rc^r​ away from its own minimizers, and the pointwise comparison of predictors that settles Theorem 4 says nothing about such a pair. What the data can detect is governed by the large deviations of P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​, which only see sets with non-empty interior in P\mathcal PP, while the competitor's prescriptor need not be continuous. Without quasi-continuity of x^\hat xx^ the argument breaks: a selector that jumps to a cheaper decision only on a set with empty interior is invisible to the data, and the theorem is not claimed for such selectors. The existence half (Proposition 4) rests on a selection theorem for upper semicontinuous set-valued maps on Baire spaces (Matejdes 1987, Corollary 4), for which there is no Mathlib counterpart.

Formalization scope

Lean conventions:

  • Ξ\XiΞ is Fin d, and P\mathcal PP is the subtype of stdSimplex ℝ (Fin d) with its subspace topology.
  • XXX is a compact subset of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with decisions in the subtype ↥X and the Euclidean distance; γ\gammaγ is continuous in xxx for each iii. These are the standing assumptions of §2 (p. 5).
  • The relative entropy is valued in EReal, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ unless P(i)=0⇒P′(i)=0\mathbb P(i)=0\Rightarrow\mathbb P'(i)=0P(i)=0⇒P′(i)=0.
  • P∞(P^T∈D)\mathbb P^\infty(\hat{\mathbb P}_T\in\mathcal D)P∞(P^T​∈D) is the finite sum over sample paths in ΞT\Xi^TΞT of ∏tP(ξt)\prod_t\mathbb P(\xi_t)∏t​P(ξt​). For T=0T=0T=0 every such event has probability 000, and Theorem 8 is posed for T≥1T\ge1T≥1.
  • The decay rate lim sup⁡1Tlog⁡pT≤−r\limsup\frac1T\log p_T\le-rlimsupT1​logpT​≤−r is encoded without logarithms: for every r′<rr'<rr′<r, eventually pT≤e−r′Tp_T\le e^{-r'T}pT​≤e−r′T.
  • x^r\hat x_rx^r​ is a hypothesis-bound function, quasi-continuous and an arg-min selector of c^r\hat c_rc^r​, never a chosen one.
  • Proposition 4 additionally assumes X≠∅X\ne\emptysetX=∅.

Ruled out:

  • A rate written with Real.log would treat a probability that vanishes as having rate 000.
  • A real-valued relative entropy would give finite values where the paper has +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Competing pairs without continuity of c^\hat cc^ or quasi-continuity of x^\hat xx^ make the theorem false.

Each of these makes the statement different from the paper's, and none is used.

Reusable infrastructure includes quasi-continuity (with the Bledsoe density theorem), Berge's maximum theorem for the minimum value, and finite-alphabet large deviations for empirical distributions. Contributions of any of these, or of the mission 1 milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. P. G. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021; preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118v3
  • W. Bledsoe, Neighborly functions, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society 3:114–115, 1952.
  • C. Berge, Topological Spaces: Including a Treatment of Multi-Valued Functions, Vector Spaces, and Convexity, 1963, pp. 115–116.
  • M. Matejdes, Sur les sélecteurs des multifonctions, Mathematica Slovaca 37(1):111–124, 1987.
  • J. E. Smith, R. L. Winkler, The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis, Management Science 52(3):311–322, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451
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Convex OptimizationOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 3: The Dual Objective Is √δκ₁-Strongly Convex in (β, λ) Near the Dual OptimizersResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision based on observed data can change when the data law differs from the one used to choose it. Distributionally robust optimization addresses this by evaluating each decision against a family of nearby probability laws. Optimal transport gives one way to define “nearby”: a candidate law is admissible when probability mass can be moved from the baseline law at a bounded expected cost. For a linear decision rule, the resulting worst-case expectation is usually harder to optimize than an ordinary sample-average loss. Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang identify a dual objective whose variables are the decision vector and a scalar transport multiplier, then study its curvature near the multipliers that actually minimize it (Blanchet–Murthy–Zhang, 2022).

The paper proves that this dual objective is jointly strongly convex on a specified region for sufficiently small transport radius. This matters because ordinary convexity allows flat directions in the joint decision–multiplier space. The joint lower Hessian bound gives local curvature in every direction with one positive modulus that remains independent of the radius apart from the paper's explicit factor δ\sqrt{\delta}δ​ (Theorem 4, p. 11).

Setting

Let X∈RdX\in\mathbb R^dX∈Rd have a baseline probability law P0P_0P0​, and let a decision be a vector β\betaβ in a nonempty compact convex set B⊆RdB\subseteq\mathbb R^dB⊆Rd. The loss of a possible outcome xxx is ℓ(βTx)\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}x)ℓ(βTx) for a convex function ℓ:R→R\ell:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rℓ:R→R. A state-dependent positive-definite matrix A(x)A(x)A(x) sets the cost of moving mass from xxx to x′x'x′:

c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′).c(x,x')=(x-x')^{\mathsf T}A(x)(x-x').c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′).

Assumption 1 requires this cost to be lower semicontinuous and the eigenvalues of A(x)A(x)A(x) to lie between positive constants ρmin⁡\rho_{\min}ρmin​ and ρmax⁡\rho_{\max}ρmax​ for P0P_0P0​-almost every xxx. Assumption 2 requires at most quadratic growth of ℓ\ellℓ and a finite fourth moment of P0P_0P0​. The ambiguity radius δ\deltaδ is positive (Assumptions 1–2, pp. 9–10).

The paper's dual objective is an expectation under the known law P0P_0P0​. Write qA(β,x)=βTA(x)−1βq_A(\beta,x)=\beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaqA​(β,x)=βTA(x)−1β. For a scalar λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 and an auxiliary scalar γ\gammaγ, set

F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ qA(β,x))−λδ(γ2qA(β,x)−1),fδ(β,λ)=EP0 ⁣[sup⁡γ∈RF(γ,β,λ;X)].F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;x) =\ell\bigl(\beta^{\mathsf T}x+\gamma\sqrt\delta\,q_A(\beta,x)\bigr) -\lambda\sqrt\delta\bigl(\gamma^2q_A(\beta,x)-1\bigr), \qquad f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)=\mathbb E_{P_0}\!\left[\sup_{\gamma\in\mathbb R}F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;X)\right].F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ​qA​(β,x))−λδ​(γ2qA​(β,x)−1),fδ​(β,λ)=EP0​​[γ∈Rsup​F(γ,β,λ;X)].

This value may be +∞+\infty+∞. Under the paper's duality conditions, minimizing fδ(β,λ)f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)fδ​(β,λ) over λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 gives the worst-case loss at β\betaβ (Theorem 1 and (7), p. 10).

Formalization targets

Assumption 3 bounds ℓ′′\ell''ℓ′′ above by M>0M>0M>0 and excludes an almost surely zero ℓ′(βTX)\ell'(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)ℓ′(βTX) for each β∈B\beta\in Bβ∈B. Assumption 4 makes BBB compact. Lemma 6 supplies positive constants L‾,L‾\underline L,\overline LL​,L bounding EP0[ℓ′(βTX)2]\mathbb E_{P_0}[\ell'(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)^2]EP0​​[ℓ′(βTX)2] uniformly over BBB. With Rβ=sup⁡β∈B∥β∥R_\beta=\sup_{\beta\in B}\|\beta\|Rβ​=supβ∈B​∥β∥, the constants K1,K2K_1,K_2K1​,K2​ are those of (28), and

Vδ={(β,λ):β∈B, λ≥0, K1∥β∥≤λ≤K2∥β∥}.\mathbb V_\delta=\{(\beta,\lambda):\beta\in B,\ \lambda\ge0,\ K_1\|\beta\|\le\lambda\le K_2\|\beta\|\}.Vδ​={(β,λ):β∈B, λ≥0, K1​∥β∥≤λ≤K2​∥β∥}.

Theorem 3 first gives a bounded Hessian on Vδ\mathbb V_\deltaVδ​ and a positive lower bound on its β\betaβ block when 0<δ<δ00<\delta<\delta_00<δ<δ0​, with the explicit δ0\delta_0δ0​ from p. 36. The goal, Theorem 4, adds Assumption 5: ℓ\ellℓ is locally strongly convex and, at each β∈B\beta\in Bβ∈B, the loss derivative and the linear score are simultaneously separated from zero with positive probability. It asserts the joint bound

∃ δ1∈(0,δ0), κ1>0∀ δ∈(0,δ1), ∀ θ∈Vδ:∇2fδ(θ)⪰δ κ1Id+1.\exists\,\delta_1\in(0,\delta_0),\ \kappa_1>0\quad \forall\,\delta\in(0,\delta_1),\ \forall\,\theta\in\mathbb V_\delta:\quad \nabla^2 f_\delta(\theta)\succeq\sqrt\delta\,\kappa_1 I_{d+1}.∃δ1​∈(0,δ0​), κ1​>0∀δ∈(0,δ1​), ∀θ∈Vδ​:∇2fδ​(θ)⪰δ​κ1​Id+1​.

The order of the quantifiers is part of the target: κ1\kappa_1κ1​ works for every sufficiently small δ\deltaδ (Theorems 3–4, p. 11).

Significance

The Hessian bound makes the joint dual parameters locally identifiable by curvature on a region that contains every dual optimizer. In the paper, this structure also underlies the analysis of algorithms and of how the optimizer changes with the transport radius (Proposition 1, p. 11; §3 and §5.4). Theorem 4 is already proved in the paper; this mission asks for its machine-checked formalization, together with the stated bounds on multipliers, the maximizing scalar, and the intermediate curvature results. The general optimal-transport integral used here already has a published Prove2Me definition from Blanchet and Murthy's earlier model-risk work. The new definitions specify this paper's Mahalanobis model, regions, and smoothness assumptions.

Difficulty

Convexity alone gives only a nonnegative Hessian; it cannot produce a strictly positive joint lower bound. Even curvature of ℓ\ellℓ does not by itself control directions that combine a change in β\betaβ with a change in λ\lambdaλ. The inner supremum over γ\gammaγ can become infinite outside its effective domain, while at β=0\beta=0β=0 its maximizer ceases to be unique. The theorem therefore needs a region where the dual objective is finite and differentiable and a probabilistic condition that prevents the relevant score and derivative from vanishing together. The target keeps the actual δ\sqrt\deltaδ​ scale instead of settling for a radius-dependent positive constant (§2.2.2 and Remark 4, pp. 10–12, 39).

Formalization scope

Lean uses EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) for Rd\mathbb R^dRd, a Borel probability measure for P0P_0P0​, and EReal for fδf_\deltafδ​ and the inner supremum. The reused extended-real integral records the +∞+\infty+∞ and −∞-\infty−∞ cases; the Hessian is taken only where fδf_\deltafδ​ is finite on a neighborhood and its real representative is differentiable there. Quadratic Hessian forms use ∥vβ∥2+vλ2\|v_\beta\|^2+v_\lambda^2∥vβ​∥2+vλ2​, since Lean's product norm is not the paper's Euclidean norm. The compact set BBB is explicitly nonempty, and the positive ambiguity radius δ\deltaδ is quantified inside the goal so that δ1\delta_1δ1​ and κ1\kappa_1κ1​ are uniform in δ\deltaδ. Theorem 3 additionally assumes Rβ>0R_\beta>0Rβ​>0 for the proof's explicit formula for δ0\delta_0δ0​: nonempty compact B={0}B=\{0\}B={0} would make that formula zero. Assumption 5 already gives Rβ>0R_\beta>0Rβ​>0 in the goal.

The goal retains Assumption 5's per-decision quantifiers. That assumption itself excludes 0∈B0\in B0∈B: its strict score event is empty at β=0\beta=0β=0. Intermediate statements where the printed wording includes β=0\beta=0β=0 but the claim fails there state β≠0\beta\ne0β=0 explicitly. Lemma 5 also states the differentiability and positive-multiplier conditions needed for its derivative and division. Proposition 9(b)'s printed strict curvature-margin inequality is corrected to the nonstrict inequality derived in its proof; its original wording is preserved in the milestone quotation. The claims are about the expectation fδf_\deltafδ​, with κ1\kappa_1κ1​ independent of δ\deltaδ, rather than a pointwise or merely convex substitute.

A complete development needs measurable extended-real integration, the matrix quadratic form and its inverse, almost-everywhere spectral bounds, differentiability under an expectation, and Hessian estimates for an optimized scalar. The transport integral, the assumptions and constants, and the multiplier bounds are intended as reusable interfaces for the companion missions. Contributions that close the listed lemmas or add the paper's omitted second-order kernel formula are within scope.

Selected references

  • José Blanchet, Karthyek Murthy, and Fan Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3; DOI:10.1287/moor.2021.1178.
  • José Blanchet and Karthyek Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2.
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Complexity TheoryLinear OptimizationOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Comment on "Computational Complexity of Stochastic Programming Problems" 3: An ε-Optimal Decision of the Random-Recourse Program (11) Decides the Integer Feasibility ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear two-stage stochastic program chooses a first-stage decision xxx before an uncertain parameter ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ is revealed, and pays the optimal value Q(x,ξ)Q(x,\xi)Q(x,ξ) of a second-stage linear program once the realization ξ\xiξ is known. Such programs are the basic model of planning under uncertainty in operations research, and their computational complexity determines which solution methods can be expected to work. In 2006, Dyer and Stougie argued that linear two-stage stochastic programs with fixed recourse are #P-hard even when the random data follow independent uniform distributions. Hanasusanto, Kuhn and Wiesemann showed that this proof is not correct and gave a corrected one, which also covers approximate evaluation to sufficiently high accuracy; their note also shows that, when the second-stage constraint matrix itself depends on ξ\xiξ (random recourse), even finding an approximately optimal decision is strongly NP-hard.

This mission formalizes that last result, Theorem 4 of the note. The previous missions of the series treat the hardness of evaluating the expected recourse with fixed and with random recourse.

Setting

The Integer Feasibility Problem. An instance is an integer matrix A∈Zm×nA\in\mathbb Z^{m\times n}A∈Zm×n and an integer vector b∈Zmb\in\mathbb Z^mb∈Zm such that the polytope {y∈Rn:Ay≤b}\{y\in\mathbb R^n:Ay\le b\}{y∈Rn:Ay≤b} lies in the unit cube [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n. The question is whether some binary vector y∈{0,1}ny\in\{0,1\}^ny∈{0,1}n satisfies Ay≤bAy\le bAy≤b. This problem is strongly NP-hard (Garey and Johnson).

The second-stage problem. For a decision x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R and a realization ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, write eee for the all-ones vector and consider

Q(x,ξ)= minimize  e⊤ysubject to  y∈R+n, λ∈R+m, x≥e⊤y,yi≥ξi+(b−Aξ)⊤λ,yi≥(1−ξi)+(b−Aξ)⊤λ(i=1,…,n).\begin{aligned} Q(x,\xi)=\ \text{minimize}\ \ & e^\top y\\ \text{subject to}\ \ & y\in\mathbb R^n_+,\ \lambda\in\mathbb R^m_+,\ x\ge e^\top y,\\ & y_i\ge \xi_i+(b-A\xi)^\top\lambda,\quad y_i\ge(1-\xi_i)+(b-A\xi)^\top\lambda\qquad(i=1,\dots,n). \end{aligned}Q(x,ξ)= minimize  subject to  ​e⊤yy∈R+n​, λ∈R+m​, x≥e⊤y,yi​≥ξi​+(b−Aξ)⊤λ,yi​≥(1−ξi​)+(b−Aξ)⊤λ(i=1,…,n).​

The coefficient of λ\lambdaλ in each constraint depends on ξ\xiξ, which is what makes the recourse random.

Problem (11). With ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ uniformly distributed on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n,

minimize  x+E[Q(x,ξ~)]subject to  x∈R.\text{minimize}\ \ x+\mathbb E\big[Q(x,\tilde\xi)\big]\quad\text{subject to}\ \ x\in\mathbb R .minimize  x+E[Q(x,ξ~​)]subject to  x∈R.

The second stage is not feasible for every xxx (the problem lacks relatively complete recourse), so a decision xxx is feasible only if the second stage is feasible for every ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n. Let f⋆f^\starf⋆ be the infimum of the objective over feasible decisions. A feasible xxx is ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal if

∣f⋆−(x+E[Q(x,ξ~)])∣max⁡{∣f⋆∣,1}≤ϵ.\frac{\big|f^\star-\big(x+\mathbb E[Q(x,\tilde\xi)]\big)\big|}{\max\{|f^\star|,1\}}\le\epsilon .max{∣f⋆∣,1}​f⋆−(x+E[Q(x,ξ~​)])​​≤ϵ.

The constant ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′. Lemma 4 fixes ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ with 0≤ϵ′<120\le\epsilon'<\tfrac120≤ϵ′<21​ and ϵ′∑j∣Aij∣<1\epsilon'\sum_j|A_{ij}|<1ϵ′∑j​∣Aij​∣<1 for every row iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 as a reduction

For an instance with nonempty polytope, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ as above, 0≤ϵ<ϵ′/(4n)0\le\epsilon<\epsilon'/(4n)0≤ϵ<ϵ′/(4n), and any ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decision xxx of (11),

∃ y∈{0,1}n: Ay≤b  ⟺  x>n−ϵ′2.\exists\,y\in\{0,1\}^n:\ Ay\le b\iff x>n-\frac{\epsilon'}{2}.∃y∈{0,1}n: Ay≤b⟺x>n−2ϵ′​.

This is the mathematical content of "determining an ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decision is strongly NP-hard whenever ϵ<ϵ′/4n\epsilon<\epsilon'/4nϵ<ϵ′/4n": a single comparison of any approximate decision with a threshold answers the NP-hard question.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4. Ay≤bAy\le bAy≤b has a binary solution iff it has a solution in ([0,ϵ′]∪[1−ϵ′,1])n([0,\epsilon']\cup[1-\epsilon',1])^n([0,ϵ′]∪[1−ϵ′,1])n.
  2. The second stage. If Aξ≤bA\xi\le bAξ≤b, the second stage is feasible iff ∑imax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}≤x\sum_i\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}\le x∑i​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}≤x, with value ∑imax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}\sum_i\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}∑i​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}; otherwise it is feasible iff x≥0x\ge0x≥0, with value 000. Optimal yyy is unique in both cases.
  3. The optimal decision. xxx is feasible iff x≥x⋆x\ge x^\starx≥x⋆, and x⋆x^\starx⋆ is the unique optimal decision, where
x⋆=max⁡{∑i=1nmax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}:Aξ≤b}.x^\star=\max\Big\{\sum_{i=1}^n\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}:A\xi\le b\Big\}.x⋆=max{i=1∑n​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}:Aξ≤b}.
  1. The dichotomy. The answer is affirmative iff x⋆=nx^\star=nx⋆=n, and negative iff x⋆<n−ϵ′x^\star<n-\epsilon'x⋆<n−ϵ′.
  2. Accuracy of the decision. Every ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal xxx satisfies ∣x⋆−x∣≤2nϵ|x^\star-x|\le2n\epsilon∣x⋆−x∣≤2nϵ.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 implies that, unless the problems in NP admit an efficient solution scheme, there is no fully polynomial-time approximation scheme for two-stage stochastic programs with random recourse, even with a one-dimensional first stage and a uniform distribution. Together with the #P-hardness results of the same note, it delimits what algorithms such as sample average approximation can guarantee once relatively complete recourse and fixed recourse are dropped.

Formalizing it. The theorem has a short published proof, but that proof leaves several conventions implicit: the index set of the constraint block, the meaning of first-stage feasibility, and the condition on ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ when AAA has a zero row. A machine-checked version fixes each of them and verifies that the claimed formula for x⋆x^\starx⋆ is correct under the chosen reading. To our knowledge none of these statements has been formalized before. The objects are elementary (finite-dimensional linear programs, a set integral on the unit cube), and the second-stage solution and rounding lemma are reusable for related reductions from integer feasibility.

Difficulty

The individual steps are short; the difficulty is bookkeeping across three layers. The second stage is an optimisation over (y,λ)(y,\lambda)(y,λ) whose feasibility depends on the sign pattern of b−Aξb-A\xib−Aξ; the first stage requires a supremum over a polytope to be attained (compactness), and the expected recourse to be the same integral for all feasible decisions (integrability of a piecewise-defined value function over the cube). The tempting shortcut, reading off feasibility from the value of QQQ, fails: an infeasible linear program has no meaningful value, and treating it as cost 000 would make every decision look optimal. Similarly, an almost-sure notion of feasibility looks natural for a stochastic program but invalidates the formula for x⋆x^\starx⋆ whenever the polytope has measure zero, as it typically does for integer feasibility instances written with equalities.

Formalization scope

All objects live in SPHardness.IntFeas. Vectors are functions on Fin n and Fin m; AAA and bbb are integer and are cast to R\mathbb RR, and integrality is kept because Lemma 4 depends on it. The uniform law on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n is Lebesgue measure restricted to the cube (volume 111); expectations are set integrals. The recourse value, f⋆f^\starf⋆ and x⋆x^\starx⋆ are sInf/sSup in R\mathbb RR, and second-stage feasibility, first-stage feasibility and ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimality are separate predicates, so no statement depends on the junk value of an empty infimum.

Pinned readings and added conventions:

  • The page writes the constraint block as "∀i=1,…,m\forall i=1,\dots,m∀i=1,…,m" and x⋆x^\starx⋆ with ∑i=1m\sum_{i=1}^m∑i=1m​, adding "n=m=kn=m=kn=m=k". Here the block ranges over i=1,…,ni=1,\dots,ni=1,…,n, ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, and mmm (the number of rows of AAA) is arbitrary.
  • First-stage feasibility is robust: feasible for every ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, not almost every ξ\xiξ.
  • ϵ′<min⁡i{(∑j∣Aij∣)−1}\epsilon'<\min_i\{(\sum_j|A_{ij}|)^{-1}\}ϵ′<mini​{(∑j​∣Aij​∣)−1} is encoded as ϵ′∑j∣Aij∣<1\epsilon'\sum_j|A_{ij}|<1ϵ′∑j​∣Aij​∣<1 for every row, together with 0≤ϵ′<120\le\epsilon'<\tfrac120≤ϵ′<21​.
  • Added hypotheses, all disclosed in the statements: the polytope {Aξ≤b}\{A\xi\le b\}{Aξ≤b} is nonempty (the proof's own assumption), n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0.

Strong NP-hardness, the FPTAS consequence, running times and encoding lengths are not formalized; the goal is the correctness of the reduction. A statement in which xxx ranges over arbitrary reals satisfying a hypothesised identity, rather than over ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decisions of the program (11) built from (A,b)(A,b)(A,b), would be trivial and is ruled out: every object in the goal is defined from the instance.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, in particular measurability and integrability of the recourse function on the cube and attainment of x⋆x^\starx⋆, which are reusable for other piecewise-linear recourse functions.

Selected references

  • G. A. Hanasusanto, D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, A comment on "computational complexity of stochastic programming problems", Mathematical Programming (2016); preprint Optimization Online 2015/03/4825 (version of October 6, 2015). https://optimization-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/4825.pdf, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0958-2
  • M. Dyer, L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Mathematical Programming 106 (2006) 423–432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0597-0
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W. H. Freeman, 1979.
  • J. R. Birge, F. Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, Springer, 1997 (2nd ed. 2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4).
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Convex OptimizationOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 2: The Dual Objective f_δ(β, λ) = E_P0[ℓ_rob(β, λ; X)] Is Proper and ConvexResearch Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces the expected loss EP0[ℓ(βTX)]E_{P_0}[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)]EP0​​[ℓ(βTX)] of a decision β\betaβ under a baseline distribution P0P_0P0​ by its worst case over all distributions PPP that are close to P0P_0P0​. When closeness is measured by an optimal transport cost, the worst case over this infinite-dimensional ball has a one-dimensional dual: by Theorem 1 of Blanchet, Murthy and Zhang (arXiv:1810.02403v3, Math. Oper. Res. 47(2), 2022), building on the strong duality of Blanchet and Murthy (arXiv:1604.01446),

sup⁡P:Dc(P0,P)≤δEP[ℓ(βTX)]=inf⁡λ≥0fδ(β,λ).\sup_{P : D_c(P_0, P) \le \delta} E_P\big[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)\big] = \inf_{\lambda \ge 0} f_\delta(\beta, \lambda).P:Dc​(P0​,P)≤δsup​EP​[ℓ(βTX)]=λ≥0inf​fδ​(β,λ).

The robust problem inf⁡β∈Bsup⁡PEP[ℓ(βTX)]\inf_{\beta \in B} \sup_P E_P[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)]infβ∈B​supP​EP​[ℓ(βTX)] thus becomes a joint minimization of the dual objective fδf_\deltafδ​ over (β,λ)(\beta, \lambda)(β,λ). Whether that minimization is a convex program, and on which set the objective is finite, decides whether first-order methods such as the stochastic gradient schemes of the same paper apply at all. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, Theorem 2.

Setting

The data XXX take values in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd with law P0P_0P0​, a Borel probability measure. A decision is a vector β\betaβ in a convex set B⊆RdB \subseteq \mathbb{R}^dB⊆Rd, the loss is ℓ(βTx)\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}x)ℓ(βTx) for ℓ:R→R\ell : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}ℓ:R→R, and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 is the transport budget.

The transport cost is the state-dependent Mahalanobis cost c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′)c(x, x') = (x - x')^{\mathsf T}A(x)(x - x')c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′) for a map AAA from Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd to positive definite d×dd \times dd×d matrices. Assumption 1: ccc is lower semicontinuous (1a), and ρmin⁡∥v∥2≤vTA(x)v≤ρmax⁡∥v∥2\rho_{\min}\|v\|^2 \le v^{\mathsf T}A(x)v \le \rho_{\max}\|v\|^2ρmin​∥v∥2≤vTA(x)v≤ρmax​∥v∥2 for P0P_0P0​-almost every xxx, with ρmin⁡>0\rho_{\min} > 0ρmin​>0 (1b). Write qβ(x)=βTA(x)−1βq_\beta(x) = \beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaqβ​(x)=βTA(x)−1β.

Assumption 2: ℓ\ellℓ is convex, its growth exponent

κ=inf⁡{s≥0:sup⁡u∈R(ℓ(u)−su2)<∞}\kappa = \inf\Big\{ s \ge 0 : \sup_{u \in \mathbb{R}} \big(\ell(u) - s u^2\big) < \infty \Big\}κ=inf{s≥0:u∈Rsup​(ℓ(u)−su2)<∞}

is finite, and EP0∥X∥4<∞E_{P_0}\|X\|^4 < \inftyEP0​​∥X∥4<∞.

For γ∈R\gamma \in \mathbb{R}γ∈R, λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and x∈Rdx \in \mathbb{R}^dx∈Rd define, as in display (7),

F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ qβ(x))−λδ(γ2qβ(x)−1),F(\gamma, \beta, \lambda; x) = \ell\big(\beta^{\mathsf T}x + \gamma\sqrt{\delta}\, q_\beta(x)\big) - \lambda\sqrt{\delta}\big(\gamma^2 q_\beta(x) - 1\big),F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ​qβ​(x))−λδ​(γ2qβ​(x)−1),

the robust loss ℓrob(β,λ;x)=sup⁡γ∈RF(γ,β,λ;x)∈R∪{+∞}\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x) = \sup_{\gamma \in \mathbb{R}} F(\gamma, \beta, \lambda; x) \in \mathbb{R} \cup \{+\infty\}ℓrob​(β,λ;x)=supγ∈R​F(γ,β,λ;x)∈R∪{+∞}, its set of maximizers Γ∗(β,λ;x)\Gamma^*(\beta, \lambda; x)Γ∗(β,λ;x), and the dual objective

fδ(β,λ)=EP0[ℓrob(β,λ;X)]∈R∪{±∞}.f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) = E_{P_0}\big[\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; X)\big] \in \mathbb{R} \cup \{\pm\infty\}.fδ​(β,λ)=EP0​​[ℓrob​(β,λ;X)]∈R∪{±∞}.

The effective domain is U={(β,λ)∈B×R+:fδ(β,λ)<∞}\mathbb{U} = \{(\beta, \lambda) \in B \times \mathbb{R}_+ : f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) < \infty\}U={(β,λ)∈B×R+​:fδ​(β,λ)<∞}, and with the threshold λthr(β)=κδ ess sup⁡P0qβ\lambda_{thr}(\beta) = \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,\operatorname{ess\,sup}_{P_0} q_\betaλthr​(β)=κδ​esssupP0​​qβ​ the paper sets U1={λ>λthr(β)}\mathbb{U}_1 = \{\lambda > \lambda_{thr}(\beta)\}U1​={λ>λthr​(β)} and U2={λ≥λthr(β)}\mathbb{U}_2 = \{\lambda \ge \lambda_{thr}(\beta)\}U2​={λ≥λthr​(β)} inside B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 10)

Under Assumptions 1 and 2, fδ:B×R+→R∪{∞}f_\delta : B \times \mathbb{R}_+ \to \mathbb{R} \cup \{\infty\}fδ​:B×R+​→R∪{∞} is proper and convex: fδ>−∞f_\delta > -\inftyfδ​>−∞ on B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​; for each β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B some λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 has fδ(β,λ)<∞f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) < \inftyfδ​(β,λ)<∞; and for θ1,θ2∈B×R+\theta_1, \theta_2 \in B \times \mathbb{R}_+θ1​,θ2​∈B×R+​, α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0, 1]α∈[0,1],

fδ(αθ1+(1−α)θ2)≤αfδ(θ1)+(1−α)fδ(θ2).f_\delta\big(\alpha\theta_1 + (1 - \alpha)\theta_2\big) \le \alpha f_\delta(\theta_1) + (1 - \alpha) f_\delta(\theta_2).fδ​(αθ1​+(1−α)θ2​)≤αfδ​(θ1​)+(1−α)fδ​(θ2​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 32). For each ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there are C1,C2>0C_1, C_2 > 0C1​,C2​>0, not depending on xxx, β\betaβ, λ\lambdaλ, such that whenever λ≥(κ+ε)δ qβ(x)\lambda \ge (\kappa + \varepsilon)\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ≥(κ+ε)δ​qβ​(x) we have δ∣g∣qβ(x)≤1+C1ε−1(1+∣βTx∣)\sqrt{\delta}|g|q_\beta(x) \le 1 + C_1\varepsilon^{-1}(1 + |\beta^{\mathsf T}x|)δ​∣g∣qβ​(x)≤1+C1​ε−1(1+∣βTx∣) for every g∈Γ∗(β,λ;x)g \in \Gamma^*(\beta, \lambda; x)g∈Γ∗(β,λ;x), and ℓrob(β,λ;x)≤λδ+C2(1+ε+ε−1)(1+∣βTx∣)2\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x) \le \lambda\sqrt{\delta} + C_2(1 + \varepsilon + \varepsilon^{-1})(1 + |\beta^{\mathsf T}x|)^2ℓrob​(β,λ;x)≤λδ​+C2​(1+ε+ε−1)(1+∣βTx∣)2.
  2. Display (25) (p. 32). sup⁡Δ∈Rd{ℓ(βT(x+Δ))−λδ(ΔTA(x)Δ−δ)}=ℓrob(β,λ;x)\sup_{\Delta \in \mathbb{R}^d}\{\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}(x + \Delta)) - \tfrac{\lambda}{\sqrt\delta}(\Delta^{\mathsf T}A(x)\Delta - \delta)\} = \ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x)supΔ∈Rd​{ℓ(βT(x+Δ))−δ​λ​(ΔTA(x)Δ−δ)}=ℓrob​(β,λ;x).
  3. Lemma 2 (p. 16). (β,λ)↦ℓrob(β,λ;x)(\beta, \lambda) \mapsto \ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x)(β,λ)↦ℓrob​(β,λ;x) is convex on B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​ for every xxx.
  4. Lemma 1 (p. 16). Γ∗≠∅\Gamma^* \neq \emptysetΓ∗=∅ and ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ finite if λ>κδ qβ(x)\lambda > \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ>κδ​qβ​(x); Γ∗=∅\Gamma^* = \emptysetΓ∗=∅ and ℓrob=∞\ell_{rob} = \inftyℓrob​=∞ if λ<κδ qβ(x)\lambda < \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ<κδ​qβ​(x); consequently U1⊆U⊆U2\mathbb{U}_1 \subseteq \mathbb{U} \subseteq \mathbb{U}_2U1​⊆U⊆U2​.

Lemma 3 is stated with constants depending only on ε\varepsilonε (and the fixed data), as its proof produces them and as the paper's later arguments integrate bound (b) over xxx.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the structural fact behind the paper's algorithms: with Theorem 1 it turns a minimax problem over probability measures into a convex minimization in d+1d + 1d+1 real variables, on which the paper's strong convexity results (Theorems 3–5) and its stochastic gradient schemes are built. Lemma 1 identifies the effective domain up to its boundary, which tells an algorithm where the dual multiplier must lie, and Lemma 3 gives the growth control of the robust loss used throughout the appendix.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a Lean statement of the dual objective as an extended-real integral and of its convexity and properness, reusable by the other missions of this series (strong convexity near the optimizers, worst-case distributions, comparative statics in δ\deltaδ), and contributions of formal proofs of the milestones and the goal.

Difficulty

The objective takes the value +∞+\infty+∞ on part of its domain: Lemma 1(b) shows that ℓrob=+∞\ell_{rob} = +\inftyℓrob​=+∞ below the threshold, so the naive reading "fδf_\deltafδ​ is a real convex function" is false, and convexity must be handled for functions with values in R∪{∞}\mathbb{R} \cup \{\infty\}R∪{∞}, including the conventions 0⋅∞=00 \cdot \infty = 00⋅∞=0 at the endpoints of the segment. Properness requires a bound on ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ that is integrable in xxx, so the constants of Lemma 3 must not depend on xxx; a bound that is only pointwise finite does not suffice. The identity (25) relates a supremum over Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd to a supremum over R\mathbb{R}R through a change of the dual variable, and the two multipliers must be kept apart. Finally, the expectation in fδf_\deltafδ​ is an integral of an extended-real function whose measurability is not assumed but has to be derived from Assumption 1.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and parameters (β,λ)(\beta, \lambda)(β,λ) live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) × ℝ. ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ is an EReal supremum; fδf_\deltafδ​ is the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral, ∫φ+ dP0−∫φ− dP0\int \varphi^+\,dP_0 - \int \varphi^-\,dP_0∫φ+dP0​−∫φ−dP0​ with lower Lebesgue integrals. κ\kappaκ is a real infimum and λthr\lambda_{thr}λthr​ uses the real essential supremum; both are used only under Assumptions 1–2, which make them meaningful. Convexity of extended-real maps is written as the explicit inequality in EReal, since ConvexOn does not apply.

Standing assumptions carried by every statement: P0P_0P0​ a probability measure, δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, BBB convex (the paper's standing assumption). Conventions committed to: "for any xxx" in Lemmas 1–2 is every xxx, not almost every; Lemma 2 assumes only Assumption 1a and the convexity of ℓ\ellℓ; the identity (25) is stated with the old multiplier written as λ/δ\lambda/\sqrt{\delta}λ/δ​; the typo "βA(x)−1β\beta A(x)^{-1}\betaβA(x)−1β" in Lemma 1 is read as βTA(x)−1β\beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaβTA(x)−1β; the goal's "finite somewhere" is stated for each β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B, so the goal is vacuous only when B=∅B = \emptysetB=∅. The fourth-moment condition of Assumption 2 is kept as printed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: "proper" is not encoded as "finite everywhere" (false by Lemma 1(b)), and pointwise convexity of ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ (Lemma 2) is a milestone, not the goal, which is about the expectation fδf_\deltafδ​.

A complete development needs: positive definite matrices and the quadratic minimization behind (25); continuity of convex functions and growth bounds; lower Lebesgue integrals of extended-real functions and their monotonicity and additivity; measurability of a supremum over γ\gammaγ of continuous functions. The definitions layer is shared with the other four missions of this series. Proofs of any milestone and of the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, F. Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1178
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446, doi:10.1287/moor.2018.0936
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal 1: The Relative-Entropy Robust Predictor Is the Least Conservative Predictor Whose Disappointment Decays at Rate rResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker who must choose xxx before observing an uncertain outcome ξ\xiξ usually does not know the distribution of ξ\xiξ; only past observations ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​ are available. Data-driven optimization replaces the unknown expected cost by an estimate computed from the data. The simplest estimate, the sample average, is optimistically biased: the cost realized out of sample is, with probability close to one half, higher than predicted. Many corrections have been proposed: robust optimization over moment, ϕ\phiϕ-divergence or Wasserstein ambiguity sets (Delage & Ye 2010; Ben-Tal et al. 2013; Bertsimas, Gupta & Kallus 2018), and empirical-likelihood methods (Lam 2019; Duchi, Glynn & Namkoong 2021). Each is justified by a guarantee it satisfies. Van Parys, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118; Management Science 67(6), 2021) ask a different question: among all estimates that satisfy a given guarantee, which one is the least conservative? Their answer singles out one distributionally robust predictor, built on the relative entropy, as the best possible one in a precise sense. This mission formalizes that answer for the prediction problem with finitely many outcomes.

Setting

The outcome ξ\xiξ takes values in Ξ={1,…,d}\Xi=\{1,\dots,d\}Ξ={1,…,d}. Decisions range over a compact set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn, and the cost γ(x,i)\gamma(x,i)γ(x,i) is continuous in xxx for each iii. These are the standing assumptions of §2 (p. 5).

A model is a point P\mathbb PP of the probability simplex P={P∈R+d:∑iP(i)=1}\mathcal P=\{\mathbb P\in\mathbb R^d_+:\sum_i\mathbb P(i)=1\}P={P∈R+d​:∑i​P(i)=1}, with the topology inherited from Rd\mathbb R^dRd. Under a model the expected cost is c(x,P)=∑iP(i)γ(x,i)c(x,\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P(i)\gamma(x,i)c(x,P)=∑i​P(i)γ(x,i).

The data are TTT independent draws from an unknown model. They enter only through the empirical distribution P^T(i)=1T#{t≤T:ξt=i}\hat{\mathbb P}_T(i)=\frac1T\#\{t\le T:\xi_t=i\}P^T​(i)=T1​#{t≤T:ξt​=i}. Write P∞(⋅)\mathbb P^\infty(\cdot)P∞(⋅) for probabilities when the samples are drawn from P\mathbb PP.

A data-driven predictor is a continuous function c^:X×P→R\hat c:X\times\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rc^:X×P→R; the number c^(x,P^T)\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)c^(x,P^T​) estimates c(x,P)c(x,\mathbb P)c(x,P). The set of all of them is C\mathcal CC. Its out-of-sample disappointment is the probability P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​)) that the true cost exceeds the prediction.

The relative entropy of P′\mathbb P'P′ with respect to P\mathbb PP is

I(P′,P)=∑iP′(i)log⁡P′(i)P(i)∈[0,∞],I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)=\sum_{i}\mathbb P'(i)\log\frac{\mathbb P'(i)}{\mathbb P(i)}\in[0,\infty],I(P′,P)=i∑​P′(i)logP(i)P′(i)​∈[0,∞],

with 0log⁡(0/p)=00\log(0/p)=00log(0/p)=0 and p′log⁡(p′/0)=+∞p'\log(p'/0)=+\inftyp′log(p′/0)=+∞ for p′>0p'>0p′>0.

For a threshold r≥0r\ge0r≥0, the distributionally robust predictor is

c^r(x,P′)=sup⁡P∈P{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r}.(10)\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\sup_{\mathbb P\in\mathcal P}\{c(x,\mathbb P):I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)\le r\}.\tag{10}c^r​(x,P′)=P∈Psup​{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r}.(10)

It is the worst expected cost over all models under which the observed frequencies P′\mathbb P'P′ are not exponentially unlikely at rate more than rrr. The observed frequencies are the first argument of III.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (strong optimality)

The paper's meta-optimization problem (5) is

min⁡c^∈C⪯C c^s.t.lim sup⁡T→∞1Tlog⁡P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))≤−r∀x∈X, P∈P,\min_{\hat c\in\mathcal C}{}^{\preceq_{\mathcal C}}\ \hat c\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\log\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le-r\quad\forall x\in X,\ \mathbb P\in\mathcal P,c^∈Cmin​⪯C​ c^s.t.T→∞limsup​T1​logP∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​))≤−r∀x∈X, P∈P,

where c^1⪯Cc^2\hat c_1\preceq_{\mathcal C}\hat c_2c^1​⪯C​c^2​ means c^1≤c^2\hat c_1\le\hat c_2c^1​≤c^2​ pointwise on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P. A feasible c^⋆\hat c^\starc^⋆ is strongly optimal if c^⋆⪯Cc^\hat c^\star\preceq_{\mathcal C}\hat cc^⋆⪯C​c^ for every feasible c^\hat cc^. The goal is:

If r>0, then c^r is strongly optimal in (5).\text{If } r>0,\ \text{then } \hat c_r \text{ is strongly optimal in (5).}If r>0, then c^r​ is strongly optimal in (5).

This statement contains feasibility (continuity and the decay rate) and pointwise domination of every feasible competitor.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1(ii) and (iii): III is jointly convex and lower semicontinuous on P×P\mathcal P\times\mathcal PP×P.
  2. The supremum in (10) is attained.
  3. Theorem 2: the strong LDP P∞(P^T∈D)≤(T+1)de−Tinf⁡DI(⋅,P)\mathbb P^\infty(\hat{\mathbb P}_T\in\mathcal D)\le(T+1)^de^{-T\inf_{\mathcal D}I(\cdot,\mathbb P)}P∞(P^T​∈D)≤(T+1)de−TinfD​I(⋅,P).
  4. Theorem 1: the weak LDP, upper bound (7a) and, for P>0\mathbb P>0P>0, lower bound (7b) with the interior of D\mathcal DD.
  5. Proposition 2: the dual representation c^r(x,P′)=min⁡α≥γˉ(x)α−e−r∏i(α−γ(x,i))P′(i)\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\min_{\alpha\ge\bar\gamma(x)}\alpha-e^{-r}\prod_i(\alpha-\gamma(x,i))^{\mathbb P'(i)}c^r​(x,P′)=minα≥γˉ​(x)​α−e−r∏i​(α−γ(x,i))P′(i), with a minimizer in an explicit interval.
  6. Proposition 3 and Theorem 3: c^r\hat c_rc^r​ is continuous, and is feasible in (5) for every r≥0r\ge0r≥0.
  7. Display (15): a maximizer in the closed relative entropy ball can be approximated in cost by a strictly positive model in the open ball.

Two further statements are included without milestones: Proposition 1(i), the information inequality, and Theorem 5, the finite-sample bound (T+1)de−rT(T+1)^de^{-rT}(T+1)de−rT on the disappointment of c^r\hat c_rc^r​.

Significance

The theorem turns a choice among robust estimators into a uniqueness statement. If a decision maker asks only for a disappointment probability that decays exponentially at rate rrr under every possible model, then c^r\hat c_rc^r​ is the unique least conservative continuous predictor. Any predictor that is smaller anywhere fails the guarantee for some model. The reverse predictor (12) and the restricted predictor (13), which fix the other argument of III or hedge only against models absolutely continuous with respect to the observed frequencies and are common in the literature, differ from c^r\hat c_rc^r​ (Remark 3, pp. 15–16), so the theorem does not single them out. The companion missions of this series extend the result to predictor–prescriptor pairs (mission 2) and to compact continuous outcome spaces (mission 3).

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formal development would also give Mathlib-level statements of the method of types: Sanov's theorem for finite alphabets in both its finite-sample and asymptotic forms, together with the convexity and semicontinuity of the relative entropy with the +∞+\infty+∞ convention. These are reusable far beyond this paper.

Difficulty

Feasibility (Theorem 3) is a direct consequence of the LDP upper bound, once the disappointment set is seen to lie outside the relative entropy ball. The difficulty is the optimality half. Showing that a competitor c^\hat cc^ with c^(x,P0′)<c^r(x,P0′)\hat c(x,\mathbb P_0')<\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P_0')c^(x,P0′​)<c^r​(x,P0′​) at a single point must be infeasible requires a lower bound on a disappointment probability. The obvious approach evaluates the LDP lower bound at a maximizer P0\mathbb P_0P0​ of (10). That fails: the lower bound (7b) needs a strictly positive model, the maximizer usually lies on the boundary of the simplex and on the boundary of the ball I(P0′,⋅)≤rI(\mathbb P_0',\cdot)\le rI(P0′​,⋅)≤r, and the bound is only in terms of the interior of the disappointment set. The argument has to move to a nearby model, and this uses the continuity of c^\hat cc^, the convexity of III, and the +∞+\infty+∞ convention of III in its second argument. The asymptotic statements also require care with the logarithm of a vanishing probability.

Formalization scope

  • Outcomes and models. Ξ\XiΞ is Fin d. P\mathcal PP is the subtype of stdSimplex ℝ (Fin d), so interiors and continuity are relative to P\mathcal PP, as footnote 1 (p. 12) requires.
  • Decisions and cost. XXX is a compact subset of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and γ:X→Rd\gamma : X\to\mathbb R^dγ:X→Rd is continuous in xxx for each outcome.
  • Relative entropy. III is EReal-valued and is +∞+\infty+∞ whenever P(i)=0<P′(i)\mathbb P(i)=0<\mathbb P'(i)P(i)=0<P′(i). A real-valued sum would give a finite value there under Lean's log 0 = 0, and so change c^r\hat c_rc^r​.
  • Probabilities. Sampling probabilities are finite sums over sample paths ΞT\Xi^TΞT. The empirical distribution is defined for T≥1T\ge1T≥1; finite-sample statements assume T≥1T\ge1T≥1.
  • Decay rates. Rates are stated without logarithms: lim sup⁡1Tlog⁡pT≤−r\limsup\frac1T\log p_T\le-rlimsupT1​logpT​≤−r is written "for every r′<rr'<rr′<r, eventually pT≤e−r′Tp_T\le e^{-r'T}pT​≤e−r′T". The form through Real.log would give a never-disappointed predictor rate 000, which makes Theorem 3 false.
  • Infima. Infima of III are taken in the extended reals.
  • Competitors. They range over all jointly continuous functions on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P. Dropping continuity makes Theorem 4 false.
  • Sets D\mathcal DD. The LDP statements require Borel D⊆P\mathcal D\subseteq\mathcal PD⊆P, represented by MeasurableSet D in the simplex subtype.
  • Display (15). The clause 0<r20<r_20<r2​ is dropped: it is unused, and it fails for d=1d=1d=1.

Welcome contributions: the method of types on Fin d (type classes, their cardinality bounds and probabilities); joint convexity and lower semicontinuity of the finite relative entropy with the +∞+\infty+∞ convention; and Berge's maximum theorem in the form used for Proposition 3. These are reusable beyond this mission. The definitions duplicate those of mission 2 of this series and are meant to be merged once published.

The source is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3 (22 Dec 2019); all theorem, display and page numbers refer to it.

Selected references

  • B. P. G. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021. Preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118v3 — https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3678
  • T. M. Cover, J. A. Thomas, Elements of Information Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2006 (Theorems 2.6.3, 2.7.2, 11.4.1). https://doi.org/10.1002/047174882X
  • A. Dembo, O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-5320-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. De Waegenaere, B. Melenberg, G. Rennen, Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities, Management Science 59(2), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1641
  • E. Delage, Y. Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0741
  • C. Berge, Topological Spaces, Oliver & Boyd, 1963 (pp. 115–116, maximum theorem).
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model 7: Under Space Constraints, for Every α > 1, O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉ n^(⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)) Candidate Assortments Include an α-Approximate SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer that sells products in categories must decide which products to offer in each category. When customers choose among the offered products according to the nested logit model, the expected revenue depends on the offered assortment in a nonlinear way, and the retailer's shelf space adds a knapsack constraint in every category. Gallego and Topaloglu (Management Science, 2014) show that the resulting space-constrained assortment problem is NP-hard even with a single nest (via Lemma 2.1 of Rusmevichientong, Shen and Shmoys, cited in the paper as 2009), give a factor-2 approximation through a linear program, and then, in Online Supplement C of the paper, refine the approach into an approximation scheme: for every desired guarantee α>1\alpha>1α>1, a polynomially sized family of candidate assortments per nest suffices.

The scheme follows the partial-enumeration idea of Frieze and Clarke (1984) for multi-dimensional knapsack problems, but has to work for a whole one-parameter family of knapsack problems, one for every value of a scalar u≥0u\ge0u≥0, with a single collection of candidates fixed in advance.

Setting

There are nests i∈Mi\in Mi∈M and products j∈N={1,…,n}j\in N=\{1,\dots,n\}j∈N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a preference weight vij>0v_{ij}>0vij​>0, a revenue rij∈Rr_{ij}\in\mathbb Rrij​∈R (no sign or order is assumed), and a space requirement wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0; nest iii has capacity cic_ici​ with wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​. An assortment of nest iii is a set S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N; it is feasible, S∈CiS\in\mathcal C_iS∈Ci​, when ∑j∈Swij≤ci\sum_{j\in S}w_{ij}\le c_i∑j∈S​wij​≤ci​. Write

Vi(S)=∑j∈Svij,Ri(S)=∑j∈SrijvijVi(S)(Ri(∅)=0).V_i(S)=\sum_{j\in S}v_{ij},\qquad R_i(S)=\frac{\sum_{j\in S}r_{ij}v_{ij}}{V_i(S)}\quad(R_i(\emptyset)=0).Vi​(S)=j∈S∑​vij​,Ri​(S)=Vi​(S)∑j∈S​rij​vij​​(Ri​(∅)=0).

For u≥0u\ge0u≥0, problem (7) is max⁡S∈CiVi(S)(Ri(S)−u)\max_{S\in\mathcal C_i}V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u)maxS∈Ci​​Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u), which equals the knapsack problem (10) max⁡S∈Ci∑j∈Svij(rij−u)\max_{S\in\mathcal C_i}\sum_{j\in S}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)maxS∈Ci​​∑j∈S​vij​(rij​−u). The quantity vij(rij−u)v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)vij​(rij​−u) is the utility of product jjj; z∗(u)z^\ast(u)z∗(u) denotes the optimal value of (10). An assortment S^∈Ci\hat S\in\mathcal C_iS^∈Ci​ is α\alphaα-approximate at uuu when Vi(S)(Ri(S)−u)≤αVi(S^)(Ri(S^)−u)V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u)\le\alpha V_i(\hat S)(R_i(\hat S)-u)Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u)≤αVi​(S^)(Ri​(S^)−u) for all S∈CiS\in\mathcal C_iS∈Ci​.

For a set J⊆NJ\subseteq NJ⊆N, problem (17) is the linear program

max⁡{∑jvij(rij−u)xij:∑jwijxij≤ci, xij=1 (j∈J), 0≤xik≤1(vik(rik−u)≤min⁡j∈Jvij(rij−u)) (k∉J)},\max\Big\{\sum_{j}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)x_{ij} : \sum_j w_{ij}x_{ij}\le c_i,\ x_{ij}=1\ (j\in J),\ 0\le x_{ik}\le\mathbf 1\big(v_{ik}(r_{ik}-u)\le\min_{j\in J}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)\big)\ (k\notin J)\Big\},max{j∑​vij​(rij​−u)xij​:j∑​wij​xij​≤ci​, xij​=1 (j∈J), 0≤xik​≤1(vik​(rik​−u)≤j∈Jmin​vij​(rij​−u)) (k∈/J)},

the LP relaxation of (10) with the products of JJJ fixed in the knapsack and every product whose utility exceeds the smallest utility in JJJ removed. Its optimal value is ζ∗(u,J)\zeta^\ast(u,J)ζ∗(u,J). Rounding a solution xxx down gives the assortment ⌊x⌋={j:xij=1}\lfloor x\rfloor=\{j:x_{ij}=1\}⌊x⌋={j:xij​=1}. ℘q\wp_q℘q​ is the family of subsets of NNN with at most qqq elements.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9 (p. 40)

For every α>1\alpha>1α>1, with q=⌈α/(α−1)⌉q=\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceilq=⌈α/(α−1)⌉, there is a collection {Ait:t∈Ti}⊆Ci\{A_i^t:t\in\mathcal T_i\}\subseteq\mathcal C_i{Ait​:t∈Ti​}⊆Ci​ such that

∣Ti∣≤5(q+1) nq+2+1and∀u≥0 ∃t: Ait is α-approximate for (7) at u.|\mathcal T_i|\le 5(q+1)\,n^{q+2}+1\quad\text{and}\quad\forall u\ge0\ \exists t:\ A_i^t\text{ is }\alpha\text{-approximate for (7) at }u .∣Ti​∣≤5(q+1)nq+2+1and∀u≥0 ∃t: Ait​ is α-approximate for (7) at u.

The paper writes ∣Ti∣=O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)|\mathcal T_i|=O(\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil n^{\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil+2})∣Ti​∣=O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2); the explicit bound above is of that order.

Milestones

  1. Whenever (17) is feasible, it has an optimal solution with at most one fractional component (p. 39).
  2. If an optimal Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ of (10) at u^\hat uu^ has ∣Si∗∣≤q|S^\ast_i|\le q∣Si∗​∣≤q, then rounding down an optimal solution of (17) with J=Si∗J=S^\ast_iJ=Si∗​ solves (10) at u^\hat uu^ (p. 41).
  3. If ∣Si∗∣>q|S^\ast_i|>q∣Si∗​∣>q and Ji∗J^\ast_iJi∗​ holds qqq products of Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ of largest utility, a fractional component j′j'j′ of an optimal solution of (17) at (u^,Ji∗)(\hat u,J^\ast_i)(u^,Ji∗​) satisfies vij′(rij′−u^)≤z∗(u^)/qv_{ij'}(r_{ij'}-\hat u)\le z^\ast(\hat u)/qvij′​(rij′​−u^)≤z∗(u^)/q (pp. 41–42).
  4. In the same situation Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ is feasible for (17), so z∗(u^)≤ζ∗(u^,Ji∗)z^\ast(\hat u)\le\zeta^\ast(\hat u,J^\ast_i)z∗(u^)≤ζ∗(u^,Ji∗​) (p. 42).
  5. Lemma 8 (p. 40), per uuu: for q≥2q\ge2q≥2 and every u≥0u\ge0u≥0 some J∈℘qJ\in\wp_qJ∈℘q​ makes every optimal solution of (17) with at most one fractional component round down to a q/(q−1)q/(q-1)q/(q−1)-approximate solution of (10).

Significance

Together with Theorem 4 of the paper (an α\alphaα-approximate candidate per nest for every uuu yields an α\alphaα-approximate assortment for the whole problem) and Theorem 2 (the best combination of candidates solves a linear program with 1+m1+m1+m variables), Theorem 9 gives, for every α>1\alpha>1α>1, an α\alphaα-approximation of the space-constrained nested logit assortment problem by a single linear program with O(m⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)O(m\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil n^{\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil+2})O(m⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2) constraints; for α=3/2\alpha=3/2α=3/2 this is O(mn5)O(mn^5)O(mn5). It shows that the factor 2 of Section 5 is not a barrier of the method.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as the platform's records show, none of it is formalized; this mission produces a machine-checked proof of Lemma 8 and Theorem 9, including the explicit counting of parameter intervals that the paper only sketches.

A related but different construction, with large and small products and a continuous knapsack whose weights are preference weights, appears in the unconstrained variants of Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (items NestedLogitVariants.PowersDelta.*); it is not reused here.

Difficulty

Two points resist the obvious argument. First, rounding down the plain LP relaxation of (10) drops one fractional product whose utility can be as large as the whole optimum, which is why Section 5 only reaches a factor 2; no choice of rounding of that relaxation alone does better. The guarantee has to come from the partially fixed problems (17), and their indicator constraint is delicate: it excludes only products of strictly larger utility than the least utility in JJJ, and a version that also excludes ties can cut off the optimal assortment of (10), and the comparison with z∗(u)z^\ast(u)z∗(u) is then lost.

Second, the collection must be fixed before uuu. The optimal solution of (17) depends on uuu through the ordering of the utilities, the ordering of the utility-to-space ratios and the signs of the utilities, which change only at the intersection points of 2(n+1)2(n+1)2(n+1) lines. Because the feasible set of (17) itself depends on uuu through the indicator constraint, the solution on an open interval between two such points need not remain optimal at its endpoints; the count must treat the breakpoints as pieces of their own.

Formalization scope

  • Nests are a finite type ι; products are Fin n (0-based); assortments are Finset (Fin n), with ∅\emptyset∅ for 0ˉ\bar 00ˉ.
  • The published model NestedLogitVariants.LP.Model is referenced; its within-nest no-purchase weight is set to zero (I.vnp i = 0), which makes V and R the paper's ViV_iVi​ and RiR_iRi​. The paper's extension Vi(Si)=vi01(Si≠0ˉ)+…V_i(S_i)=v_{i0}\mathbf 1(S_i\ne\bar 0)+\dotsVi​(Si​)=vi0​1(Si​=0ˉ)+… is not formalized.
  • Added hypotheses, all flagged in the items: vij>0v_{ij}>0vij​>0, wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0, ci≥0c_i\ge0ci​≥0 (the empty assortment is feasible even when n=0n=0n=0), q≥2q\ge2q≥2 in Lemma 8 and q≥1q\ge1q≥1 in milestone 3. The paper's wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​ is kept in the goal.
  • The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is pinned to 5(q+1)nq+2+15(q+1)n^{q+2}+15(q+1)nq+2+1, with a constant that does not depend on α\alphaα, as the paper's explicit factor ⌈α/(α−1)⌉\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil⌈α/(α−1)⌉ indicates: for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, at most (q+1)nq(q+1)n^q(q+1)nq sets in ℘q\wp_q℘q​ times at most 2n(n+1)+1≤5n22n(n+1)+1\le5n^22n(n+1)+1≤5n2 pieces of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); the +1+1+1 covers n=0n=0n=0.
  • q=⌈α/(α−1)⌉q=\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceilq=⌈α/(α−1)⌉ is Nat.ceil; α>1\alpha>1α>1 is strict.
  • The collection is quantified before uuu; problem (17) is a real LP over [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n; its indicator constraint excludes only products of strictly larger utility.
  • Lemma 8 is stated per uuu: the interval solutions xig(J)x_i^g(J)xig​(J) are not defined, and their counting belongs to Theorem 9.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the size bound is part of the goal (without it A=CiA=\mathcal C_iA=Ci​ works, and a bound like 2n2^n2n would do the same); α\alphaα is arbitrary in (1,∞)(1,\infty)(1,∞), not fixed; and (17) carries its indicator constraint, without which the q/(q−1)q/(q-1)q/(q−1) argument fails.
  • Welcome contributions: a reusable greedy theorem for the fractional knapsack LP (one fractional component), and a general lemma counting the pieces on which a finite family of affine functions has constant order and signs.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego and H. Topaloglu, Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model, Management Science 60(10), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1931 (cited from the authors' manuscript of Sept. 11, 2013).
  • A. M. Frieze and M. R. B. Clarke, Approximation algorithms for the m-dimensional 0–1 knapsack problem: worst-case and probabilistic analyses, European Journal of Operational Research 15(1), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(84)90053-5
  • P. Rusmevichientong, Z.-J. M. Shen and D. B. Shmoys, Dynamic assortment optimization with a multinomial logit choice model and capacity constraint, Operations Research 58(6), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0866
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