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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: Shuze Chen

Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control VII: Infinite Horizon ProblemsTextbook

Motivation

Infinite-horizon dynamic programming is the mathematical core of Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning: Bellman equations, value iteration, policy iteration, and their guarantees. Chapter 7 of Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I (3rd ed., 2005) develops the finite-state theory in its cleanest generality — stochastic shortest path (SSP) problems first (Prop. 7.2.1–7.2.2), with discounted problems (Prop. 7.3.1) and average-cost problems (Prop. 7.4.1–7.4.2) derived from the SSP analysis. These propositions are cited throughout the MDP/RL literature as the base case of the theory; none of them exists in Mathlib.

Setting

States 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n plus an implicit cost-free absorbing termination state ttt; finite nonempty control sets U(i)U(i)U(i); costs g(i,u)g(i,u)g(i,u); sub-stochastic transitions pij(u)≥0p_{ij}(u) \ge 0pij​(u)≥0, ∑jpij(u)≤1\sum_j p_{ij}(u) \le 1∑j​pij​(u)≤1, the deficit being the termination probability (BertsekasSSPModel). Operators

(TμJ)(i)=g(i,μ(i))+∑jpij(μ(i))J(j),(TJ)(i)=min⁡u∈U(i)[g(i,u)+∑jpij(u)J(j)](T_\mu J)(i) = g(i,\mu(i)) + \sum_j p_{ij}(\mu(i)) J(j), \qquad (TJ)(i) = \min_{u \in U(i)}\Big[g(i,u) + \sum_j p_{ij}(u) J(j)\Big](Tμ​J)(i)=g(i,μ(i))+j∑​pij​(μ(i))J(j),(TJ)(i)=u∈U(i)min​[g(i,u)+j∑​pij​(u)J(j)]

(BertsekasSSPPolicyOp, BertsekasSSPBellmanOp), NNN-stage costs by backward recursion with policy shift (BertsekasSSPNCost), and the survival mass P{xm≠t}P\{x_m \ne t\}P{xm​=t} (BertsekasSSPSurvival). Assumption 7.2.1: for some m>0m > 0m>0, every admissible policy has survival mass <1< 1<1 from every state after mmm stages. The discounted setting reuses the same model with stochastic rows and 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1 (BertsekasDiscounted*); the average-cost setting adds a designated state sss with the avoidance probability of Assumption 7.4.1 (BertsekasSSPAvoidProb).

Target

Under Assumption 7.2.1, there is a vector J∗J^*J∗ with

TkJ0→J∗  ∀J0,J∗=TJ∗ uniquely,J∗(i)≤Jπ(i)=lim⁡NJπN(i)  ∀π admissible,T^k J_0 \to J^* \ \ \forall J_0, \qquad J^* = T J^* \text{ uniquely}, \qquad J^*(i) \le J_\pi(i) = \lim_N J^N_\pi(i) \ \ \forall \pi \text{ admissible},TkJ0​→J∗  ∀J0​,J∗=TJ∗ uniquely,J∗(i)≤Jπ​(i)=Nlim​JπN​(i)  ∀π admissible,

and a stationary policy attaining J∗J^*J∗ — BertsekasDP.ssp_main_theorem (goal, Prop. 7.2.1(a),(b)). Milestones: 7.2.1(c) policy evaluation, 7.2.1(d) optimality iff greediness, 7.2.2 policy iteration, 7.3.1 the full discounted counterpart, 7.4.1 the average-cost Bellman equation, 7.4.2 average-cost policy iteration.

Significance

These are the convergence guarantees behind value iteration and policy iteration — the two algorithms at the root of dynamic programming practice and of RL analyses (Q-learning's target operator is exactly TTT). The SSP form is the strongest of the three: the discounted theory is its special case (termination with probability 1−α1 - \alpha1−α per stage) and the average-cost theory reduces to it through cycles at the recurrent state. Formalized, the chapter yields a reusable finite-MDP theory: monotone operators, mmm-stage contractions, and the machinery for later Vol. II material. All results are proved in the book; the formalization is new.

Difficulty

TTT is not a one-stage contraction in the sup-norm under Assumption 7.2.1 — only an mmm-stage contraction, uniformly over the finitely many mmm-stage policy prefixes; extracting the uniform contraction factor ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1 (via finiteness of the policy space) is the crux of the whole chapter. The limit of NNN-stage costs for nonstationary policies must be established, not assumed (tail-sum estimate ρ⌊N/m⌋\rho^{\lfloor N/m \rfloor}ρ⌊N/m⌋). For the average-cost results the associated-SSP construction (stop on reaching sss) must be built inside the proof. The liminf phrasing of average-cost optimality is deliberate: for arbitrary nonstationary policies the Cesàro limit need not exist.

Formalization scope

Finite states Fin n, finite control type, constraint sets as Finsets with attained minima; no termination state in the carrier — termination is the sub-stochastic deficit, exactly as the book treats it computationally. Policies are sequences of stage policies (Markov); costs of nonstationary policies via the shift recursion. Convergence is Tendsto in the product topology (equivalently sup-norm, nnn finite). Average cost uses real liminf and division with the N=0N = 0N=0 term junk-valued at 0 (irrelevant at infinity). The discounted theorem packages parts (a)–(e) in one statement mirroring Prop. 7.3.1.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I, 3rd ed., Athena Scientific, 2005. (§7.1–7.4.) http://www.athenasc.com/dpbook.html
  • D. P. Bertsekas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, An analysis of stochastic shortest path problems, Math. Oper. Res. 16 (1991), 580–595. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.3.580
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Convex OptimizationFunctional Analysis·Captain: wenxinzhang

Vector Space Methods V: Convex Separation and Distance DualityTextbook

Motivation

Linear approximation is only one instance of distance minimization. Feasible sets in optimization are typically convex rather than subspaces, so a useful certificate must compare a target point with an entire convex set and must allow an affine offset. Chapter 5 of Luenberger's Optimization by Vector Space Methods builds this certificate through geometric forms of the Hahn--Banach theorem, supporting hyperplanes, and separation of convex sets. The resulting minimum-distance theorem expresses the distance from a point to a convex set as an optimal gap measured by a norm-bounded continuous linear functional (Luenberger, §§5.12--5.13, pp. 130--137).

This mission advances the series from subspace annihilators to affine separation. It formalizes the Minkowski gauge used by the chapter, three progressively stronger separation statements, and a capstone distance-duality certificate. These results are standard infrastructure for constrained optimization: they turn a geometric exclusion or distance into a scalar inequality that can later become a multiplier or a dual bound.

Setting

Let XXX be a real normed space and K⊆XK\subseteq XK⊆X a nonempty convex set. Convexity is represented by Convex ℝ K, and topological interior, closure, and infimum distance use Mathlib's interior, closure, and Metric.infDist. A continuous affine separator is described by a continuous linear functional f:X\toL[R]Rf:X\toL[\mathbb R]\mathbb Rf:X\toL[R]R and a scalar level ccc. The inequality f(k)≤cf(k)\le cf(k)≤c for all k∈Kk\in Kk∈K places KKK in one closed half-space.

When a convex set contains zero in its interior, its Minkowski gauge is the functional gauge K. The source characterizes it by nonnegativity, positive homogeneity, subadditivity, continuity, and the level sets

{x:gK(x)≤1}=K‾,{x:gK(x)<1}=int⁡K.\{x:g_K(x)\le 1\}=\overline K, \qquad \{x:g_K(x)<1\}=\operatorname{int}K.{x:gK​(x)≤1}=K,{x:gK​(x)<1}=intK.

These properties are bundled into the first milestone, following Lemma 1 of §5.12 (pp. 131--132).

For two convex sets K1,K2K_1,K_2K1​,K2​, Eidelheit separation means finding nonzero fff and ccc with f(x)≤c≤f(y)f(x)\le c\le f(y)f(x)≤c≤f(y) for x∈K1x\in K_1x∈K1​ and y∈K2y\in K_2y∈K2​. The source assumes that K1K_1K1​ has nonempty interior and that its interior does not meet K2K_2K2​. The Lean statement records the nonemptiness of K2K_2K2​ explicitly, since otherwise nonzero separation is not forced.

Formalization targets

Gauge and geometric Hahn--Banach milestones

Formalize the six gauge properties above. Then, for a convex KKK with nonempty interior and an affine subspace VVV disjoint from that interior, produce f≠0f\ne0f=0 and ccc such that

f(v)=c(v∈V),f(k)<c(k∈int⁡K).f(v)=c\quad(v\in V), \qquad f(k)<c\quad(k\in\operatorname{int}K).f(v)=c(v∈V),f(k)<c(k∈intK).

This is Mazur's geometric Hahn--Banach theorem as stated in §5.12, Theorem 1 (p. 133).

Supporting hyperplanes and convex-set separation

For x∉int⁡Kx\notin\operatorname{int}Kx∈/intK, formalize a nonzero functional satisfying f(k)≤f(x)f(k)\le f(x)f(k)≤f(x) for all k∈Kk\in Kk∈K. Next formalize Eidelheit separation:

f(x)≤c≤f(y)for all x∈K1, y∈K2.f(x)\le c\le f(y) \quad\text{for all }x\in K_1,\ y\in K_2.f(x)≤c≤f(y)for all x∈K1​, y∈K2​.

These are Theorems 2 and 3 of §5.12 (pp. 133--134).

Convex minimum-distance duality

Let x1x_1x1​ have positive distance ddd from KKK. Produce fff and a real upper-bound level ccc with ∥f∥≤1\|f\|\le1∥f∥≤1, f(k)≤cf(k)\le cf(k)≤c on KKK, and

f(x1)−c=d.f(x_1)-c=d.f(x1​)−c=d.

Every other feasible pair (g,b)(g,b)(g,b) must satisfy g(x1)−b≤dg(x_1)-b\le dg(x1​)−b≤d. If x0∈Kx_0\in Kx0​∈K realizes the distance, require −f-f−f to align with x0−x1x_0-x_1x0​−x1​. This is the finite real certificate form of §5.13, Theorem 1 (pp. 136--137).

Significance

The capstone is an exact strong-duality statement for distance to a convex set. A feasible pair (g,b)(g,b)(g,b) yields a certified lower bound on the distance, and the distinguished pair reaches the primal value. Unlike a nearest-point characterization, it remains meaningful when KKK is not closed and no minimizing point exists. The conditional alignment clause identifies the equality case when attainment is available.

Formalizing the chapter's progression creates more than one isolated equality. The gauge package links convex geometry to sublinear analysis; Mazur separation handles affine constraints; the supporting-hyperplane and Eidelheit statements provide reusable interfaces for later multiplier rules. The results are known and proved in the 1969 text; the mission's contribution is a coherent machine-checked Lean layer that preserves the source hypotheses and can support later chapters on duality and optimization.

Difficulty

A direct reuse of subspace distance duality is insufficient because a general convex set is neither closed under subtraction nor described by an annihilator. An affine level ccc is unavoidable. The common shorthand sup⁡k∈Kf(k)\sup_{k\in K} f(k)supk∈K​f(k) introduces a second problem: KKK need not be bounded, so a real-valued supremum is not available for an arbitrary functional. The capstone therefore quantifies over a real upper bound ccc and asserts its optimality through a universal inequality; this records the same finite support value without imposing boundedness absent from the source.

Topological hypotheses also differ across the milestones. Separation uses nonempty interior, whereas the final distance theorem only assumes convexity, nonemptiness, and positive distance. Replacing positive distance by mere exclusion x1∉Kx_1\notin Kx1​∈/K would be invalid for a nonclosed set. Similarly, requiring closure or compactness would make formalization easier but would lose the theorem's intended infinite-dimensional scope.

Formalization scope

The mission is restricted to real normed spaces. Sets use Set X; affine varieties use AffineSubspace ℝ X; separators use ContinuousLinearMap. The gauge is Mathlib's existing gauge, so no competing definition is introduced. The bundled gauge milestone deliberately includes both level-set identities as well as continuity, positive homogeneity for positive real scalars, subadditivity, and nonnegativity.

The Eidelheit theorem includes K₂.Nonempty, an assumption used implicitly by the source's separating conclusion. The capstone includes K.Nonempty and 0 < Metric.infDist x₁ K; it does not assume closedness, boundedness, compactness, or attainment. Its pair (f,c)(f,c)(f,c) represents a finite support level, and the universal comparison over all feasible (g,b)(g,b)(g,b) rules out a weakened statement in which an arbitrarily loose upper bound could trivialize existence. The optional nearest-point clause uses the exact equality ∥x0−x1∥=d\|x_0-x_1\|=d∥x0​−x1​∥=d and fixes the sign of alignment. Contributions may add reusable lemmas on gauges, interiors, affine subspaces, or support bounds, but the public results should remain independent of finite-dimensionality and completeness.

Selected references

  • David G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, John Wiley & Sons, 1969, Chapter 5, §§5.11--5.13, pp. 127--137. Public scan.
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Convex OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Convex Optimization IV: Löwner–John EllipsoidsTextbook

Every full-dimensional convex body is sandwiched between an ellipsoid and its nnn-fold dilation: shrinking the minimum-volume covering (Löwner–John) ellipsoid E\mathcal{E}E about its centre x0x_0x0​ by the factor 1/n1/n1/n lands inside the body,

x0+1n (E−x0)  ⊆  C  ⊆  E,x_0 + \tfrac{1}{n}\,(\mathcal{E} - x_0) \;\subseteq\; C \;\subseteq\; \mathcal{E},x0​+n1​(E−x0​)⊆C⊆E,

and the factor nnn is tight on simplices. This rounding theorem underlies the ellipsoid method, John's theorem on the Banach–Mazur distance to the Euclidean ball, and much of modern convex geometry. The mission formalizes §8.4 of Boyd & Vandenberghe for polytopes C=conv⁡{x1,…,xm}C = \operatorname{conv}\{x_1,\dots,x_m\}C=conv{x1​,…,xm​}, exactly as the book proves it: existence and uniqueness of the extremal ellipsoid, the KKT identities at the normalized optimum (∑iλixixiT=I\sum_i \lambda_i x_i x_i^{T} = I∑i​λi​xi​xiT​=I, ∑iλixi=0\sum_i \lambda_i x_i = 0∑i​λi​xi​=0, ∑iλi=n\sum_i \lambda_i = n∑i​λi​=n), the convex-combination step that produces the 1/n1/n1/n ball, and affine invariance.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization XII: Interior Point Methods and Path FollowingTextbook

Interior point methods solve linear programs by moving through the interior of the feasible set instead of along its edges — the approach that turned Karmarkar's 1984 breakthrough into today's practical large-scale solvers. This mission formalizes the primal path following algorithm of Chapter 9 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis. For μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 the logarithmic barrier

Bμ(x)=c′x−μ∑j=1nlog⁡xjB_\mu(\mathbf{x}) = \mathbf{c}'\mathbf{x} - \mu\sum_{j=1}^n \log x_jBμ​(x)=c′x−μj=1∑n​logxj​

replaces the constraint x≥0\mathbf{x} \ge \mathbf{0}x≥0; the minimizers x(μ)\mathbf{x}(\mu)x(μ) of BμB_\muBμ​ over {Ax=b}\{A\mathbf{x} = \mathbf{b}\}{Ax=b} trace the central path, characterized by the KKT conditions (9.17): Ax=bA\mathbf{x} = \mathbf{b}Ax=b, x≥0\mathbf{x} \ge \mathbf{0}x≥0, A′p+s=cA'\mathbf{p} + \mathbf{s} = \mathbf{c}A′p+s=c, s≥0\mathbf{s} \ge \mathbf{0}s≥0, XSe=μeXS\mathbf{e} = \mu\mathbf{e}XSe=μe (Lemma 9.5). The algorithm follows the path with one Newton step of the barrier problem per shrink μk+1=αμk\mu^{k+1} = \alpha\mu^kμk+1=αμk, maintaining the proximity invariant

∥1μXSe−e∥≤β\|\frac{1}{\mu}XS\mathbf{e} - \mathbf{e}\| \le \beta∥μ1​XSe−e∥≤β

. The goal theorem is Theorem 9.7: with α=1−β−ββ+n\alpha = 1 - \frac{\sqrt{\beta}-\beta}{\sqrt{\beta}+\sqrt{n}}α=1−β​+n​β​−β​ and a β\betaβ-close start, after K=⌈β+nβ−β log⁡(s0)′x0(1+β)ε(1−β)⌉K = \Big\lceil \frac{\sqrt{\beta}+\sqrt{n}}{\sqrt{\beta}-\beta}\,\log\frac{(\mathbf{s}^0)'\mathbf{x}^0(1+\beta)}{\varepsilon(1-\beta)} \Big\rceilK=⌈β​−ββ​+n​​logε(1−β)(s0)′x0(1+β)​⌉ iterations the algorithm reaches primal and dual feasible solutions with duality gap (sK)′xK≤ε(\mathbf{s}^K)'\mathbf{x}^K \le \varepsilon(sK)′xK≤ε — the explicit form of the celebrated O(nlog⁡(1/ε))O(\sqrt{n}\log(1/\varepsilon))O(n​log(1/ε)) iteration bound. Alongside it we formalize the generic potential-reduction scheme (Theorem 9.4): any algorithm cutting G(x,s)=qlog⁡s′x−∑jlog⁡xj−∑jlog⁡sjG(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{s}) = q\log\mathbf{s}'\mathbf{x} - \sum_j \log x_j - \sum_j \log s_jG(x,s)=qlogs′x−∑j​logxj​−∑j​logsj​ by δ\deltaδ per step reaches gap ε\varepsilonε within an explicit KKK.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization XI: The Ellipsoid MethodTextbook

Can the feasibility of a system of linear inequalities be decided in a provably small number of iterations? The ellipsoid method — the algorithm with which Khachiyan showed in 1979 that linear programming is polynomially solvable — answers this with pure convex geometry. This mission formalizes Chapter 8 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis. An ellipsoid is

E(z,D)={x∈Rn∣(x−z)′D−1(x−z)≤1}E(\mathbf{z}, D) = \{\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^n \mid (\mathbf{x}-\mathbf{z})'D^{-1}(\mathbf{x}-\mathbf{z}) \le 1\}E(z,D)={x∈Rn∣(x−z)′D−1(x−z)≤1}

with DDD symmetric positive definite. The geometric engine is Theorem 8.1: the half-ellipsoid E∩{x∣a′x≥a′z}E \cap \{\mathbf{x} \mid \mathbf{a}'\mathbf{x} \ge \mathbf{a}'\mathbf{z}\}E∩{x∣a′x≥a′z} is contained in the explicitly constructed ellipsoid E′=E(zˉ,Dˉ)E' = E(\bar{\mathbf{z}}, \bar{D})E′=E(zˉ,Dˉ),

zˉ=z+1n+1Daa′Da,\bar{\mathbf{z}} = \mathbf{z} + \frac{1}{n+1}\frac{D\mathbf{a}}{\sqrt{\mathbf{a}'D\mathbf{a}}},zˉ=z+n+11​a′Da​Da​, Dˉ=n2n2−1(D−2n+1Daa′Da′Da),\bar{D} = \frac{n^2}{n^2-1}\big(D - \frac{2}{n+1}\frac{D\mathbf{a}\mathbf{a}'D}{\mathbf{a}'D\mathbf{a}}\big),Dˉ=n2−1n2​(D−n+12​a′DaDaa′D​),

and the volume contracts:

Vol(E′)<e−1/(2(n+1)) Vol(E)\mathrm{Vol}(E') < e^{-1/(2(n+1))}\,\mathrm{Vol}(E)Vol(E′)<e−1/(2(n+1))Vol(E)

. Two integer-data estimates make the contraction decisive: every extreme point of P={x∣Ax≥b}P = \{\mathbf{x} \mid A\mathbf{x} \ge \mathbf{b}\}P={x∣Ax≥b} with entries bounded by UUU has coordinates in [−(nU)n,(nU)n][-(nU)^n, (nU)^n][−(nU)n,(nU)n] (Lemma 8.2), and a full-dimensional bounded such polyhedron has Vol(P)>n−n(nU)−n2(n+1)\mathrm{Vol}(P) > n^{-n}(nU)^{-n^2(n+1)}Vol(P)>n−n(nU)−n2(n+1) (Lemma 8.4). The goal theorem is Theorem 8.2: started on a ball E(x0,r2I)E(\mathbf{x}_0, r^2 I)E(x0​,r2I) of volume at most VVV containing PPP, with vvv a lower bound on Vol(P)\mathrm{Vol}(P)Vol(P) when PPP is nonempty, the ellipsoid method correctly decides whether PPP is empty within t∗=⌈2(n+1)log⁡(V/v)⌉t^* = \lceil 2(n+1)\log(V/v) \rceilt∗=⌈2(n+1)log(V/v)⌉ iterations — the explicit iteration count behind the polynomial-time headline.

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Linear Optimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization IX: Network Flow IntegralityTextbook

Why do network linear programs return integer answers for free? This mission formalizes the structural theory of the minimum cost network flow problem of Chapter 7 of Bertsimas & Tsitsiklis: a directed graph G=(N,A)G=(\mathcal{N},\mathcal{A})G=(N,A) with external supplies bib_ibi​, arc costs cijc_{ij}cij​, and the node-arc incidence matrix A\mathbf{A}A — an n×mn\times mn×m matrix in which every column has exactly one +1+1+1 (start node) and one −1-1−1 (end node) — so that flow conservation reads Af=b\mathbf{A}\mathbf{f}=\mathbf{b}Af=b, forcing the standing assumption ∑i∈Nbi=0\sum_{i\in\mathcal{N}} b_i=0∑i∈N​bi​=0. Because the rows of A\mathbf{A}A sum to zero, the book works with the truncated matrix A~\tilde{\mathbf{A}}A~ of the first n−1n-1n−1 rows. The combinatorial heart is the correspondence between algebra and graph structure: a set TTT of n−1n-1n−1 arcs forming a tree determines a unique tree solution of A~f=b~\tilde{\mathbf{A}}\mathbf{f}=\tilde{\mathbf{b}}A~f=b~, fij=0f_{ij}=0fij​=0 off TTT (Theorem 7.3); connectedness makes A~\tilde{\mathbf{A}}A~ full-rank (Corollary 7.1); and a flow vector is a basic solution if and only if it is a tree solution (Theorem 7.4). The goal theorem is the integrality theorem (Theorem 7.5): for the uncapacitated problem on a connected graph, every basis matrix B\mathbf{B}B has an integer inverse B−1\mathbf{B}^{-1}B−1 (its determinant is ±1\pm 1±1 by the tree/lower-triangular argument), integer supplies make every basic solution integer, and integer costs make every dual basic solution integer — whence integer optimal primal and dual solutions exist whenever the optimal cost is finite (Corollary 7.2). This is the fountainhead of combinatorial integrality in linear optimization, feeding the max-flow min-cut mission that follows.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization VIII: Sensitivity Analysis and Subgradients of the Optimal CostTextbook

How does the optimal cost of a linear program respond when the problem data change? Chapter 5 of Bertsimas-Tsitsiklis studies the standard form problem min⁡{c′x∣Ax=b, x≥0}\min\{c'x \mid Ax = b,\ x \ge 0\}min{c′x∣Ax=b, x≥0} (rows of AAA linearly independent) as the requirement vector bbb and the cost vector ccc vary. On the convex set S={b∣P(b)≠∅}S = \{b \mid P(b) \neq \emptyset\}S={b∣P(b)=∅} of feasible right-hand sides, and under the standing assumption that the dual feasible set is nonempty, the optimal cost F(b)F(b)F(b) is finite and convex (Theorem 5.1) — indeed F(b)=max⁡i(pi)′bF(b) = \max_{i} (p^i)'bF(b)=maxi​(pi)′b over the extreme points p1,…,pNp^1, \dots, p^Np1,…,pN of the dual feasible set, a piecewise linear convex function whose breakpoints are exactly where the dual optimum is non-unique. The capstone (Theorem 5.2) identifies the generalized gradients of FFF: if the primal at b∗b^*b∗ is feasible with finite optimal cost, then ppp is an optimal solution of the dual if and only if ppp is a subgradient of FFF at b∗b^*b∗ (Definition 5.1: F(b∗)+p′(b−b∗)≤F(b)F(b^*) + p'(b - b^*) \le F(b)F(b∗)+p′(b−b∗)≤F(b) for all b∈Sb \in Sb∈S) — the precise sense in which dual variables are marginal costs. Dually (Theorem 5.3), the set TTT of cost vectors with finite optimal cost is convex, the optimal cost G(c)G(c)G(c) is concave on TTT, and near any ccc with a unique primal optimum x∗x^*x∗, GGG is linear with gradient x∗x^*x∗. Local ranging (Section 5.1) and parametric programming (Section 5.5) are the procedural companions, folded into the design notes.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization V: Duality TheoryTextbook

Every linear programming problem has a shadow. To the primal min⁡c′x\min c'xminc′x we associate the dual max⁡p′b\max p'bmaxp′b, whose variables price the primal constraints: one dual variable per primal constraint and one dual constraint per primal variable, with signs governed by the correspondence of Table 4.1. This mission formalizes §4.1–4.5 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis: the dual of a general-form linear program, the involution "the dual of the dual is the primal" (Theorem 4.1), and weak duality p′b≤c′xp'b \le c'xp′b≤c′x for any primal-feasible xxx and dual-feasible ppp (Theorem 4.3) with its two corollaries — an unbounded primal forces an infeasible dual (Corollary 4.1), and feasible x,px, px,p with p′b=c′xp'b = c'xp′b=c′x are automatically both optimal (Corollary 4.2). The goal theorem is strong duality (Theorem 4.4): if a linear programming problem has an optimal solution, so does its dual, and the respective optimal costs are equal — proved in the book by running the simplex method with the lexicographic pivoting rule of Mission IV on a standard-form transform. The statement is deliberately the book's attainment form: by Table 4.2 the primal and the dual can be simultaneously infeasible (Example 4.5), so an unguarded equality of optimal values is false. The mission closes with complementary slackness (Theorem 4.5): feasible xxx and ppp are simultaneously optimal if and only if pi(ai′x−bi)=0p_i(a_i'x - b_i) = 0pi​(ai′​x−bi​)=0 for all iii and (cj−p′Aj)xj=0(c_j - p'A_j)x_j = 0(cj​−p′Aj​)xj​=0 for all jjj — the certificate structure behind the dual simplex method and every LP optimality check.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization IV: The Simplex MethodTextbook

How does one actually solve a linear program? Chapter 2 showed that if a standard-form problem min⁡c′x\min c'xminc′x subject to Ax=bAx = bAx=b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 has an optimal solution, it has an optimal basic feasible solution; the simplex method searches among basic feasible solutions, moving along edges of the feasible set in cost-reducing directions. This mission formalizes the mathematics of Chapter 3 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis: feasible directions, the reduced costs

cˉj=cj−cB′B−1Aj\bar{c}_j = c_j - c_B'B^{-1}A_jcˉj​=cj​−cB′​B−1Aj​

measuring the cost rate along the basic directions, the optimality conditions of Theorem 3.1 (cˉ≥0\bar{c} \ge 0cˉ≥0 implies optimality, and conversely at nondegenerate optima), the basis change of Theorem 3.2, and the pivot iteration itself — encoded as a predicate relating a basis/BFS pair to its successor, so that every theorem covers every pivoting rule. The goal theorem is Theorem 3.3: if the feasible set is nonempty and every basic feasible solution is nondegenerate, the simplex method terminates after a finite number of iterations, ending either with an optimal basis and an associated optimal basic feasible solution, or with a direction ddd satisfying Ad=0Ad = 0Ad=0, d≥0d \ge 0d≥0, c′d<0c'd < 0c′d<0 certifying optimal cost −∞-\infty−∞. The secondary capstone, Theorem 3.4, removes the nondegeneracy assumption: under the lexicographic pivoting rule every tableau row other than the zeroth stays lexicographically positive, the zeroth row strictly increases lexicographically, and the simplex method terminates on every problem — the anticycling guarantee that also supplies the optimal-basis existence used by the strong duality theorem of Mission V.

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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Introduction to Linear Optimization I: Polyhedra and Basic Feasible SolutionsTextbook

Every linear programming problem asks to minimize a linear cost c′xc'xc′x over a polyhedron — a set of the form P={x∈Rn∣Ax≥b}P = \{x \in \mathbb{R}^n \mid Ax \ge b\}P={x∈Rn∣Ax≥b}, or in standard form {x∣Ax=b, x≥0}\{x \mid Ax = b,\ x \ge 0\}{x∣Ax=b, x≥0}. Chapter 2 of Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis develops the geometry of these feasible sets, and its central achievement is making the intuitive notion of a "corner point" rigorous. There are three natural candidates: the extreme point — a point of PPP that cannot be written as a convex combination of two other points of PPP (purely geometric, representation-independent); the vertex — the unique minimizer of some linear cost c′yc'yc′y over PPP (geometric, via supporting hyperplanes); and the basic feasible solution — a feasible point at which nnn linearly independent constraints are active (algebraic, the object the simplex method actually computes with). This mission formalizes polyhedra, active constraints, vertices and basic (feasible) solutions, and proves the fundamental Theorem 2.3: for a nonempty polyhedron all three notions coincide. Around the capstone sit the supporting pillars: polyhedra are convex (Theorem 2.1), the characterization of points pinned down by nnn linearly independent active constraints (Theorem 2.2), finiteness of the set of basic solutions (Corollary 2.1), and the basis-column characterization of basic solutions in standard form (Theorem 2.4) — the combinatorial engine behind the simplex method of Chapter 3 and the root of the entire series.

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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Cross-licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers II: Every Innovation Equilibrium Is a Downstream Duopoly, Boundary or InteriorResearch Paper

Motivation

In industries built on a key component sold by one dominant supplier, such as smartphone chipsets, the supplier's contract terms shape how much its downstream customers innovate. Some suppliers require their customers to cross-license their own patents to each other as a condition of buying the component, so that each manufacturer's innovation also improves its rival's product. Wang, Huang and Lee (SSRN 3053682; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023, doi:10.1287/msom.2019.0477) ask when a supplier facing two manufacturers of unequal innovation ability benefits from imposing cross-licensing. Their answer runs through the equilibrium of the manufacturers' innovation game, which is the subject of this mission: Proposition 2 describes how much each manufacturer innovates and shows that the supplier never ends up selling to a single manufacturer.

Setting

A supplier sells a component at wholesale price r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 to manufacturers M1M_1M1​ and M2M_2M2​. Manufacturer MiM_iMi​ chooses a quality improvement Ti≥0T_i \ge 0Ti​≥0 at cost kiTi2k_iT_i^2ki​Ti2​. With cross-licensing of effectiveness β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0, 1]β∈[0,1], the quality improvement of MiM_iMi​ is Ti+βTjT_i + \beta T_jTi​+βTj​ (j≠ij \ne ij=i), and its inverse demand is pi=1+Ti+βTj−qi−qjp_i = 1 + T_i + \beta T_j - q_i - q_jpi​=1+Ti​+βTj​−qi​−qj​. The standing assumptions are

0≤β≤1,49144<k2<k1,0 \le \beta \le 1, \qquad \tfrac{49}{144} < k_2 < k_1,0≤β≤1,14449​<k2​<k1​,

so M2M_2M2​ is the superior manufacturer. The game has three stages.

  1. Quantities. Given (T1,T2)(T_1, T_2)(T1​,T2​) and rrr, each MiM_iMi​ chooses qi≥0q_i \ge 0qi​≥0 to maximize Πi=(1+Ti+βTj−qi−qj−r)qi\Pi_i = (1 + T_i + \beta T_j - q_i - q_j - r)q_iΠi​=(1+Ti​+βTj​−qi​−qj​−r)qi​ (display (1)). The equilibrium quantities, display (2), are a duopoly when rrr is low and a monopoly of the manufacturer with the higher quality when rrr is higher.
  2. Price. The supplier chooses r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 to maximize r(q1+q2)r(q_1 + q_2)r(q1​+q2​). Its price r∗(T1,T2)r^*(T_1, T_2)r∗(T1​,T2​) is the least maximizer. Lemma 1 computes it: the supplier induces a duopoly exactly when β≥3−1\beta \ge \sqrt3 - 1β≥3​−1 or T2≤T^2(T1∣β)T_2 \le \hat T_2(T_1\mid\beta)T2​≤T^2​(T1​∣β), where
T^2(T1∣β)=2−3+T1(1−β(3−1))3−1−β.\hat T_2(T_1\mid\beta) = \frac{2 - \sqrt3 + T_1(1 - \beta(\sqrt3 - 1))}{\sqrt3 - 1 - \beta}.T^2​(T1​∣β)=3​−1−β2−3​+T1​(1−β(3​−1))​.
  1. Innovation. Each MiM_iMi​ chooses Ti≥0T_i \ge 0Ti​≥0 to maximize Πi∗(T1,T2∣β)−kiTi2\Pi^*_i(T_1, T_2\mid\beta) - k_iT_i^2Πi∗​(T1​,T2​∣β)−ki​Ti2​, where Πi∗\Pi^*_iΠi∗​ is its Cournot profit at the supplier's price. An innovation equilibrium is a pure Nash equilibrium of this game.

The proof of Proposition 2 defines two candidate profiles in closed form: the interior candidate TI=(T1I,T2I)T^I = (T^I_1, T^I_2)TI=(T1I​,T2I​), which solves both manufacturers' first-order conditions, and the boundary candidate TB=(T1B,T2B)T^B = (T^B_1, T^B_2)TB=(T1B​,T2B​), where M2M_2M2​ invests exactly up to T^2\hat T_2T^2​. A threshold k^2(k1∣β)\hat k_2(k_1\mid\beta)k^2​(k1​∣β) separates them, and T∗(β)=TBT^*(\beta) = T^BT∗(β)=TB if k2<k^2(k1∣β)k_2 < \hat k_2(k_1\mid\beta)k2​<k^2​(k1​∣β), T∗(β)=TIT^*(\beta) = T^IT∗(β)=TI otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 12)

Under the standing assumptions:

  1. every innovation equilibrium is a duopoly, meaning both manufacturers sell a positive quantity at the supplier's price;
  2. T∗(β)T^*(\beta)T∗(β) is an innovation equilibrium and a duopoly;
  3. if k2<k^2(k1∣β)k_2 < \hat k_2(k_1\mid\beta)k2​<k^2​(k1​∣β), then β<3−1\beta < \sqrt3 - 1β<3​−1 and M2M_2M2​ is on the boundary:
T2∗=T^2(T1∗∣β);T^*_2 = \hat T_2(T^*_1\mid\beta);T2∗​=T^2​(T1∗​∣β);
  1. if k2≥k^2(k1∣β)k_2 \ge \hat k_2(k_1\mid\beta)k2​≥k^2​(k1​∣β), then T∗(β)=TIT^*(\beta) = T^IT∗(β)=TI and both duopoly first-order conditions hold at T∗(β)T^*(\beta)T∗(β).

Milestones

  • display (2): the Cournot quantities are the unique equilibrium of the quantity game;
  • Lemma 1: the supplier's price, the regime, its optimal profit, and the gross profits Π1∗,Π2∗\Pi^*_1, \Pi^*_2Π1∗​,Π2∗​;
  • monopoly infeasibility at T1=0T_1 = 0T1​=0, from the proof (p. A.1): M2M_2M2​'s monopoly optimum 1/(16k2−1)1/(16k_2 - 1)1/(16k2​−1) lies below T^2(0∣β)\hat T_2(0\mid\beta)T^2​(0∣β);
  • TIT^ITI is the unique solution of the two first-order conditions (p. A.1);
  • T2B=T^2(T1B∣β)T^B_2 = \hat T_2(T^B_1\mid\beta)T2B​=T^2​(T1B​∣β), and T1BT^B_1T1B​ is M1M_1M1​'s best response to T2BT^B_2T2B​ (p. A.1);
  • k^2\hat k_2k^2​ is where T2I=T2BT^I_2 = T^B_2T2I​=T2B​, and above it TIT^ITI lies in the duopoly region (p. A.2);
  • k^2(k1∣β)\hat k_2(k_1\mid\beta)k^2​(k1​∣β) is strictly decreasing in β\betaβ with k^2(k1∣1)=0\hat k_2(k_1\mid 1) = 0k^2​(k1​∣1)=0 (p. A.2), so the boundary region shrinks to empty as β\betaβ grows.

Significance

Proposition 2 is the paper's equilibrium characterization. Proposition 3 is its instance β=0\beta = 0β=0 (no cross-licensing), and Proposition 4 compares the supplier's equilibrium profits with and without cross-licensing on the closed forms TBT^BTB, TIT^ITI and k^2\hat k_2k^2​ established here. The economic content is that, under cross-licensing, the supplier always ends up selling to both manufacturers. When the superior manufacturer's cost advantage is large it caps its own innovation exactly where the supplier stops preferring a monopoly.

The paper's proof states the closed forms and asserts the checks ("one can obtain", "we verify"). This mission produces a machine-checked version: a complete definition of the three-stage game, with the supplier's price defined as an optimization rather than by its solution, and the equilibrium claims stated against that game. To our knowledge no part of this result has been formalized before.

Difficulty

The innovation payoff of the superior manufacturer is discontinuous. When T2T_2T2​ moves just above T^2(T1∣β)\hat T_2(T_1\mid\beta)T^2​(T1​∣β), the supplier switches from a duopoly price to a monopoly price, and M2M_2M2​'s gross profit jumps down. A first-order argument therefore does not show that T∗T^*T∗ is an equilibrium. One must also show that M2M_2M2​ never gains by moving into the monopoly region, and that M1M_1M1​ never gains by deviating above T2T_2T2​, where M1M_1M1​ itself becomes the potential monopolist. The boundary candidate is an equilibrium only because the supplier breaks its indifference at the boundary toward the duopoly.

Part 1 quantifies over every equilibrium, not only T∗T^*T∗. The paper checks monopoly infeasibility only at T1=0T_1 = 0T1​=0, so the general case needs its own argument. The equilibrium is not unique: for some parameters a mirrored profile with M1M_1M1​ at its own boundary is also an equilibrium. Uniqueness is therefore not claimed. The remaining steps are polynomial and rational inequalities in (k1,k2,β)(k_1, k_2, \beta)(k1​,k2​,β) involving 3\sqrt33​.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters β,k1,k2\beta, k_1, k_2β,k1​,k2​ are real numbers. The standing assumptions 0≤β≤10 \le \beta \le 10≤β≤1 and 49/144<k2<k149/144 < k_2 < k_149/144<k2​<k1​ are bundled as Standing β k1 k2.
  • Quantities and innovation levels range over R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​ (NNReal). Equilibria use the published two-player predicate CompetingChains.Cournot.IsPureNash.
  • Wholesale prices range over [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞). The paper leaves this implicit, so it is a disclosed addition.
  • Display (2) is encoded in symmetric form, with the manufacturer of larger quality as the possible monopolist. The paper prints it for T2≥T1T_2 \ge T_1T2​≥T1​, but deviations in the innovation game reach T1>T2T_1 > T_2T1​>T2​.
  • The supplier's price is the least maximizer of r(q1+q2)r(q_1 + q_2)r(q1​+q2​) over r≥0r \ge 0r≥0. This is the tie-break Lemma 1 uses at T2=T^2T_2 = \hat T_2T2​=T^2​.
  • First-order conditions are stated as derivatives (HasDerivAt … 0) of Lemma 1's duopoly polynomials, because the game payoff is not differentiable at the boundary.
  • All closed forms are transcribed as printed, with 3\sqrt33​ as Real.sqrt 3. Every denominator is proved nonzero in its regime, never assumed.

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out. Equilibria are never defined by first-order conditions or by the closed forms, and the supplier's price is never defined by Lemma 1's case rule. Both are theorems here.

The source is the authors' SSRN manuscript (abstract 3053682, version of 2023-04-27); its proofs are in the appendix, pp. A.1–A.9. The paper's equivalent threshold β^(k1,k2)\hat\beta(k_1, k_2)β^​(k1​,k2​) is not formalized. Proofs of any milestone are welcome. Lemma 1 and display (2) are self-contained, and the closed-form milestones need only real-algebraic inequalities with 3\sqrt33​.

Selected references

  • J. Wang, T. Huang, H. Lee, Cross-licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers, SSRN 3053682, version of 2023-04-27. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3053682
  • J. Wang, T. Huang, H. Lee, Cross-licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2019.0477
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior 2: A Three-Value Instance with Outcome Monotonic Costs Whose Optimal Policies Are All StochasticResearch Paper

Motivation

Many consequential decisions, such as lending, hiring or admissions, are made by policies that map an individual's features to a probability of a positive decision. When the policy is published, individuals respond to it: they change their features, at a cost, to raise their chance of a positive decision. Tsirtsis, Tabibian, Khajehnejad, Singla, Schölkopf and Gomez-Rodriguez (arXiv:1905.09239, Management Science 2024) model this as a Stackelberg game and ask which policy maximizes the decision maker's utility once individuals best respond.

In the classical, non-strategic setting, where features do not react to the policy, the optimal policy is a deterministic threshold rule: decide positively exactly when the probability of a good outcome is at least a cost constant γ\gammaγ (Corbett-Davies et al., KDD 2017; Valera, Singla and Gomez-Rodriguez, NeurIPS 2018). The paper shows that strategic behaviour breaks this picture. A three-value example in §3 (p. 5) exhibits an instance whose costs satisfy the natural outcome monotonicity condition and whose optimal policy is nevertheless stochastic. This mission formalizes that example.

Setting

There are mmm feature values x1,…,xmx_1,\dots,x_mx1​,…,xm​, a feature distribution P(x)P(x)P(x), an outcome probability P(y=1∣x)P(y=1\mid x)P(y=1∣x), a constant γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1), and a cost c(xi,xj)≥0c(x_i,x_j)\ge0c(xi​,xj​)≥0 of changing from xix_ixi​ to xjx_jxj​.

  • A policy π\piπ assigns to each feature value a probability π(x)=π(d=1∣x)∈[0,1]\pi(x)=\pi(d=1\mid x)\in[0,1]π(x)=π(d=1∣x)∈[0,1] of a positive decision. The individual benefit is b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x).
  • An individual starting at xix_ixi​ moves to a best response
xj∈argmax⁡k π(xk)−c(xi,xk)(5),x_j\in\operatorname*{argmax}_{k}\ \pi(x_k)-c(x_i,x_k)\qquad(5),xj​∈kargmax​ π(xk​)−c(xi​,xk​)(5),

with ties broken toward the feature value with the highest P(y∣xj)P(y\mid x_j)P(y∣xj​) (standing assumption (ii)).

  • The strategic utility is
u(π,γ)=∑iP(xi) (P(y=1∣xbr(i))−γ) π(xbr(i))(7),u(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_{i}P(x_i)\,\bigl(P(y=1\mid x_{\mathrm{br}(i)})-\gamma\bigr)\,\pi(x_{\mathrm{br}(i)})\qquad(7),u(π,γ)=i∑​P(xi​)(P(y=1∣xbr(i)​)−γ)π(xbr(i)​)(7),

and a policy is optimal if it maximizes uuu over all policies.

  • The non-strategic utility uNS(π,γ)=∑xP(x)(P(y=1∣x)−γ)π(x)u_{\mathrm{NS}}(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_x P(x)(P(y=1\mid x)-\gamma)\pi(x)uNS​(π,γ)=∑x​P(x)(P(y=1∣x)−γ)π(x) is the same quantity when nobody moves.
  • A cost is outcome monotonic (p. 6) if improving one's outcome requires increasing effort and worsening it requires none.

The instance of §3 has x∈{1,2,3}x\in\{1,2,3\}x∈{1,2,3}, γ=0.1\gamma=0.1γ=0.1, P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5), P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1\mid x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4) and

c(xi,xj)=(0000.3001.20.30),c(x_i,x_j)=\begin{pmatrix}0&0&0\\0.3&0&0\\1.2&0.3&0\end{pmatrix},c(xi​,xj​)=​00.31.2​000.3​000​​,

row iii being the origin. In Lean the feature values 1,2,31,2,31,2,3 are Fin 3 indices 0,1,20,1,20,1,2; the model lives in the namespace StrategicPolicy.StochasticOpt, with Policies, br, u, uNS, OMCost, StandingI and the instance γ0, p0, q0, c0.

Formalization targets

Goal: the optimal policies of the §3 instance

π optimal  ⟺  π(x=1)=1, π(x=2)=0.7, π(x=3)≤0.4,\pi\ \text{optimal}\iff \pi(x=1)=1,\ \pi(x=2)=0.7,\ \pi(x=3)\le 0.4,π optimal⟺π(x=1)=1, π(x=2)=0.7, π(x=3)≤0.4,

every optimal policy is non-deterministic, and u((1,0.7,0),γ)=0.66u\bigl((1,0.7,0),\gamma\bigr)=0.66u((1,0.7,0),γ)=0.66. The paper prints a single optimal policy, (1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0); the optimum is not unique, and the goal states the exact optimal set, which contains the printed policy and makes the "stochastic" claim a statement about every optimum.

Milestones

  1. The instance's cost is outcome monotonic and satisfies standing assumption (i).
  2. The non-strategic optimum is unique and equals the threshold policy (1,1,1)(1,1,1)(1,1,1).
  3. Under π∗=(1,0.7,0)\pi^*=(1,0.7,0)π∗=(1,0.7,0) the individuals at x=3x=3x=3 move to x=2x=2x=2 and those at x=2x=2x=2 move to x=1x=1x=1.
  4. uNS((1,1,1))<u(π∗)u_{\mathrm{NS}}((1,1,1))<u(\pi^*)uNS​((1,1,1))<u(π∗) and u((1,1,1))<u(π∗)u((1,1,1))<u(\pi^*)u((1,1,1))<u(π∗): the strategic optimum beats its non-strategic counterpart under either reading of "counterpart".

Significance

The example separates two regimes. Without strategic behaviour the optimum is a deterministic threshold rule; with it, randomization is strictly necessary, even under the cost structure (outcome monotonicity) that the paper later uses to restrict the search for optimal policies to a structured family (Proposition 2, Theorem 3). It is the concrete witness for the paper's claim that "optimal decision policies are not always deterministic threshold rules", and it shows that the outcome monotonic binary policies of Theorem 3 must include fractional values such as 0.7=1−0.30.7=1-0.30.7=1−0.3.

The paper reports the optimum from "a brute force search", that is, numerically. A formal proof replaces the search by an argument valid over the whole continuum [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3, determines the full optimal set rather than one optimizer, and certifies the tie-breaking at both thresholds. No part of this paper has a machine-checked proof that this mission is aware of.

Difficulty

The utility is piecewise linear in π\piπ but discontinuous: it jumps whenever a best response switches, and the switching surfaces are exactly where the optimum sits. At π(x=2)=0.7\pi(x=2)=0.7π(x=2)=0.7 the individuals at x=2x=2x=2 are indifferent between staying and moving to x=1x=1x=1, and at π(x=3)=0.4\pi(x=3)=0.4π(x=3)=0.4 those at x=3x=3x=3 are indifferent between staying and moving to x=2x=2x=2. The optimum is attained only because tie-break (ii) resolves both indifferences upward. Checking finitely many candidate policies proves nothing about the rest of [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3, and a naive concavity or first-order argument does not apply to a discontinuous objective. An upper bound must hold for every policy, across all configurations of best responses.

Formalization scope

  • Policies are functions Fin 3 → ℝ with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; optimality is IsMaxOn u (Policies 3) π, over the whole cube, never over a grid or over deterministic policies.
  • The best response br is computed from π\piπ, ccc and P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) as the maximizer of (5) with the highest outcome, then the least index; it is never a free function constrained by hypotheses. With the instance's distinct outcomes the least-index rule never fires.
  • The model is the paper's base model: b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x), and P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) is unchanged by best responses (§2). Standing assumption (i) and outcome monotonicity are proved for the instance (milestone 1), not assumed.
  • Outcome monotonicity is imposed for distinct feature values together with c(x,x)=0c(x,x)=0c(x,x)=0, since the printed zero-cost equivalence at i=ji=ji=j would forbid free staying.
  • All numbers are exact rationals (1/101/101/10, 7/107/107/10, 2/52/52/5, 6/56/56/5, 3/103/103/10).
  • A formalization that states only "(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0) is optimal", or optimality against finitely many policies, would drop the stochasticity claim or trivialize the goal; neither is posed.
  • Out of scope: Theorem 1 (NP-hardness), Proposition 2 and Theorem 3 (the structural results, mission 1 of this series), the general-cost example of §5 (mission 3), the algorithms and the experiments.

Needed infrastructure is small: finite sums over Fin 3, Finset.filter, Finset.min'. Lemmas evaluating br on regions of the policy cube are reusable across the series' examples.

Selected references

  • S. Tsirtsis, B. Tabibian, M. Khajehnejad, A. Singla, B. Schölkopf, M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, Management Science, 2024; read as arXiv:1905.09239v5, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09239v5
  • S. Corbett-Davies, E. Pierson, A. Feller, S. Goel, A. Huq, Algorithmic Decision Making and the Cost of Fairness, KDD 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3097983.3098095
  • I. Valera, A. Singla, M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Enhancing the Accuracy and Fairness of Human Decision Making, NeurIPS 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10318
  • M. Hardt, N. Megiddo, C. Papadimitriou, M. Wootters, Strategic Classification, ITCS 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2840728.2840730
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior 1: Under Additive Outcome Monotonic Costs Some Outcome Monotonic Binary Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A lender or other decision maker may publish a rule that assigns a positive decision to an individual with some probability. Once the rule is visible, individuals can change the features on which it acts. The decision maker must therefore evaluate a rule under the distribution it induces after individuals respond, rather than only under the original population. Tsirtsis and coauthors study this problem with finitely many feature values and a cost for changing from one value to another. Their preprint gives a utility model, a best response rule, and structural results for costs that respect the ordering of outcomes.

This mission isolates Theorem 3 of that preprint. It asks whether, under additive and outcome monotonic costs, an optimal decision rule can be found among policies with a particular binary choice at each relevant feature value. The result concerns the structure of an optimum. It does not assert that an arbitrary starting policy is itself binary or that every optimum has this form.

Setting

There are m≥1m\ge1m≥1 feature values x1,…,xmx_1,\ldots,x_mx1​,…,xm​, indexed from highest to lowest positive-outcome probability. Write pi=P(xi)p_i=P(x_i)pi​=P(xi​) for their original population masses and qi=P(y=1∣xi)q_i=P(y=1\mid x_i)qi​=P(y=1∣xi​) for their outcomes. The masses are nonnegative and sum to one, qi∈[0,1]q_i\in[0,1]qi​∈[0,1], and the outcomes are distinct in this mission. A policy π\piπ chooses a positive decision at xix_ixi​ with probability πi∈[0,1]\pi_i\in[0,1]πi​∈[0,1]. Each positive decision costs the decision maker γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1).

An individual originally at xix_ixi​ can move to xjx_jxj​ at change cost cijc_{ij}cij​. In the paper's base model, the individual's benefit at a destination is πj\pi_jπj​, so she maximizes πj−cij\pi_j-c_{ij}πj​−cij​. Ties go to a destination with higher qjq_jqj​. If a tie remains, the formalization picks the smallest index. Write rπ(i)r_\pi(i)rπ​(i) for this best response. The outcome probabilities qjq_jqj​ themselves do not change after the response; the response changes where the population mass is counted. The decision maker's utility is

u(π,γ)=∑i=1mpi(qrπ(i)−γ)πrπ(i).u(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_{i=1}^{m}p_i\bigl(q_{r_\pi(i)}-\gamma\bigr)\pi_{r_\pi(i)}.u(π,γ)=i=1∑m​pi​(qrπ​(i)​−γ)πrπ​(i)​.

A policy is outcome monotonic here when πi<πj\pi_i<\pi_jπi​<πj​ implies qi<qjq_i<q_jqi​<qj​. An outcome monotonic cost obeys the paper's two conditions for distinct feature values: improving outcome through successive values has the specified strict cost ordering, and a move to a lower outcome has zero cost. An additive cost satisfies cij+cjk=cikc_{ij}+c_{jk}=c_{ik}cij​+cjk​=cik​ when qi<qj<qkq_i<q_j<q_kqi​<qj​<qk​. Staying costs zero. The section's standing assumption also makes a distinct move toward a weakly higher outcome cost strictly positive.

Formalization targets

Main goal: Theorem 3

If π∗\pi^*π∗ maximizes utility among all policies in [0,1]m[0,1]^m[0,1]m, and the cost is additive and outcome monotonic, then some outcome monotonic policy π\piπ has u(π,γ)=u(π∗,γ)u(\pi,\gamma)=u(\pi^*,\gamma)u(π,γ)=u(π∗,γ) and satisfies

πi=πi−1orπi=max⁡{0,πi−1−ci,i−1}(i>1, qi>γ).\pi_i=\pi_{i-1} \quad\text{or}\quad \pi_i=\max\{0,\pi_{i-1}-c_{i,i-1}\} \qquad(i>1,\ q_i>\gamma).πi​=πi−1​orπi​=max{0,πi−1​−ci,i−1​}(i>1, qi​>γ).

The paper calls this an outcome monotonic binary policy. Binary describes the two allowed relationships between adjacent policy values; the probabilities themselves can be fractional. The goal is conditional on a maximizer π∗\pi^*π∗, exactly as Theorem 3 is stated. The preprint does not establish that an optimum always exists, and its best response tie thresholds make that question separate.

Milestones

The first milestone records the observation following Proposition 2: under an outcome monotonic policy, an individual never selects a destination with lower outcome than the origin. Proposition 2 then states that some outcome monotonic policy attains the utility of an optimal policy under outcome monotonic costs. The final two milestones formalize the two individual policy changes stated in Appendix A.3, one when a policy value lies between its predecessor and the cost threshold, and one when it lies below that threshold.

Significance

Theorem 3 narrows a continuous search over policy probabilities to a structured family without losing the optimal value, provided an optimum exists. The restriction depends on how feature changes affect the induced population distribution. It is therefore a statement about decision making with strategic responses, not merely about sorting policy values by outcome. Proposition 2 is independently useful: under outcome monotonic costs, the optimal utility can be attained by an outcome monotonic policy even without additivity.

The result is proved in the cited preprint, while the proposed Lean declarations are open proof targets. A complete formalization would make the finite best response rule, the tie convention, and the cost assumptions explicit, then give checked proofs of the structural claims. The definitions of the policy space, response rule, and induced utility may also support later work on the same paper's stochastic examples and algorithms. No machine-checked proof of these proposed statements is claimed here.

Difficulty

The utility depends on a best response selected by an argmax, so changing one policy probability can switch the destination of several population groups at once. The utility need not vary continuously across tie thresholds. A naive coordinate adjustment that improves the outcome probability at one destination can alter who moves there and change the contribution from other origins. This is why a direct appeal to monotonicity of the displayed sum does not establish Proposition 2 or Theorem 3.

The Appendix A.3 statements identify two threshold regimes for a policy value. Their comparisons must account for the tie rule and for all origins whose selected destination changes. The mission keeps these comparisons as separate targets because the conclusion about the whole policy depends on them.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the features by Fin m, with Lean index 000 standing for x1x_1x1​. The model requires m>0m>0m>0 so that the best response has a value. The initial distribution and the conditional outcome probabilities are real valued, with explicit probability bounds. Policies range over the full cube [0,1]m[0,1]^m[0,1]m. The best response is computed from the policy and cost, with the highest-outcome tie rule; it is not supplied as independent data. Optimality means membership in that cube and maximal utility over that cube.

The formalization records several readings needed to make the preprint's displays consistent. Formula (1) prints a strict biconditional, but formula (9) allows equal adjacent policy values, so policy monotonicity is the implication from a strictly larger policy value to a strictly larger outcome. The cost equivalences apply to distinct values; staying is free. Additivity applies along strictly improving outcome chains, since an all-triples equality would conflict with positive improvement cost. Outcomes are assumed distinct, as needed for this version of Theorem 3. These choices are stated on the definition item and checked against the source in the moderation notes.

The goal retains the optimal-policy hypothesis and every clause of the binary property. It cannot be satisfied by defining the best response arbitrarily, shrinking the policy set to a selected candidate, or asserting only that a binary policy exists. The model covers the paper's base case b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x) with unchanged P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x). The algorithms, complexity claims, experiments, and the paper's other examples are outside this mission. Contributions on the best response interface, finite optimization lemmas, Proposition 2, and either Appendix comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Tsirtsis, B. Tabibian, M. Khajehnejad, A. Singla, B. Schölkopf, and M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, arXiv:1905.09239v5, 2020, §§2–4 and Appendix A.2–A.3; published in Management Science, 2024. arXiv preprint
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Cross-licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers I: Ex Post, Enforcing Cross-Licensing Never Lowers the Supplier's Profit at Any Wholesale PriceResearch Paper

Why the final licensing choice matters

A component supplier can influence a product market through both the wholesale price it charges and the technology its customers may share. Wang, Huang and Lee study a supply chain with one upstream supplier and two downstream manufacturers that invest in product quality and then compete in quantities. A cross-licensing policy lets each manufacturer use some of the other's innovation. The supplier may promise a policy before the investments, or leave the decision until after the investments and wholesale price are fixed. The latter choice creates a precise comparison: at that final stage, does permitting cross-licensing reduce the supplier's revenue? The authors answer it in Proposition 1 of their SSRN manuscript, version of 2023-04-27. Its proof is in the attached appendix, p. A.1.

This mission concerns that final-stage comparison. It is one part of the paper's broader study of how a supplier's licensing commitment affects manufacturers' innovation incentives and downstream market structure. The later innovation and initial-contract comparisons are separate questions. Here, investments and wholesale price are fixed, so the result isolates the direct quantity-market effect of licensing at the moment the supplier chooses its policy.

The downstream quantity game

Manufacturers M1M_1M1​ and M2M_2M2​ have already selected nonnegative innovation levels T1T_1T1​ and T2T_2T2​, with T1≤T2T_1\le T_2T1​≤T2​ in the presentation of equations (2) and (3). Each chooses a nonnegative production quantity qiq_iqi​. The wholesale price rrr is the amount each manufacturer pays the common supplier for one unit. The market-size intercept is normalized to one and per-unit manufacturing cost to zero. If licensing effectiveness is β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], manufacturer iii receives a quality improvement Ti+βTjT_i+\beta T_jTi​+βTj​; β=0\beta=0β=0 represents no cross-licensing. Its inverse demand is 1+Ti+βTj−q1−q21+T_i+\beta T_j-q_1-q_21+Ti​+βTj​−q1​−q2​. These are the model's conventions on pp. 9–10.

At fixed T1,T2,β,rT_1,T_2,\beta,rT1​,T2​,β,r, the manufacturers play a simultaneous quantity game. Their respective profits are

Π1(q1;q2)=(1+T1+βT2−q1−q2−r)q1,Π2(q2;q1)=(1+T2+βT1−q1−q2−r)q2.\Pi_1(q_1;q_2)=(1+T_1+\beta T_2-q_1-q_2-r)q_1, \qquad \Pi_2(q_2;q_1)=(1+T_2+\beta T_1-q_1-q_2-r)q_2.Π1​(q1​;q2​)=(1+T1​+βT2​−q1​−q2​−r)q1​,Π2​(q2​;q1​)=(1+T2​+βT1​−q1​−q2​−r)q2​.

A Nash equilibrium is a pair (q1,q2)∈[0,∞)2(q_1,q_2)\in[0,\infty)^2(q1​,q2​)∈[0,∞)2 for which neither manufacturer increases its profit by changing its own nonnegative quantity while the other's quantity stays fixed. The supplier's profit at a quantity profile is r(q1+q2)r(q_1+q_2)r(q1​+q2​). The supplier's comparison must therefore account for the manufacturers' responses under each licensing policy; it cannot compare profit at an arbitrary fixed quantity pair.

Formalization targets

The first milestone gives the exact equilibrium quantities of equation (2). Write r1=1+T1(2−β)−T2(1−2β)r_1=1+T_1(2-\beta)-T_2(1-2\beta)r1​=1+T1​(2−β)−T2​(1−2β) and r2=1+βT1+T2r_2=1+\beta T_1+T_2r2​=1+βT1​+T2​. For r≤r1r\le r_1r≤r1​ both manufacturers can sell; for r1<r≤r2r_1<r\le r_2r1​<r≤r2​ only M2M_2M2​ sells; above r2r_2r2​ neither sells. The statement characterizes every equilibrium and thereby gives existence and uniqueness across the two threshold boundaries, including the cases where a manufacturer's equilibrium quantity is zero.

The second milestone identifies the supplier's revenue at an equilibrium with the piecewise expression πscl(r)\pi_s^{\mathrm{cl}}(r)πscl​(r) in equation (3). Setting β=0\beta=0β=0 in that expression gives the paper's no-licensing expression πsn(r)\pi_s^{\mathrm n}(r)πsn​(r) in equation (4). This milestone links the paper's algebraic profit comparison to the strategic quantity game, while keeping the equilibrium property as the premise.

The goal is the supplier's ex-post preference in Proposition 1. If qclq^{\mathrm{cl}}qcl is any equilibrium with licensing effectiveness β\betaβ and qnq^{\mathrm n}qn is any equilibrium at β=0\beta=0β=0, then both equilibria exist and

r(q1n+q2n)≤r(q1cl+q2cl)(0≤β≤1,  0≤T1≤T2,  r≥0).r\bigl(q^{\mathrm n}_1+q^{\mathrm n}_2\bigr) \le r\bigl(q^{\mathrm{cl}}_1+q^{\mathrm{cl}}_2\bigr) \qquad(0\le\beta\le1,\;0\le T_1\le T_2,\;r\ge0).r(q1n​+q2n​)≤r(q1cl​+q2cl​)(0≤β≤1,0≤T1​≤T2​,r≥0).

This weak inequality is intentional. At β=0\beta=0β=0 the two games coincide, and there are other parameter values at which the profits tie. The comparison holds at the same innovation levels and the same wholesale price; it is not a comparison after re-optimizing the supplier's price or the manufacturers' investment decisions.

What the result establishes

For fixed investments and price, the supplier need not lose revenue by enforcing cross-licensing after observing the manufacturers' innovation. This gives mathematical content to the paper's claim that, without an initial commitment, the supplier will choose to enforce licensing at the final contract stage. The model does not specify a separate final-contract bargaining game, so the formal goal is the profit comparison that supports that interpretation. The result does not settle whether committing to licensing before innovation is preferable: changing the initial policy can change the innovation levels themselves, which the ex-post comparison holds fixed.

The authors prove Proposition 1 by comparing the supplier-profit expressions (3) and (4) in the manuscript's appendix. A machine-checked development would additionally secure the connection from the manufacturers' Nash conditions to those expressions, including the monopoly and zero-sales regimes. These statements are currently posed as open formalization targets; a Lean file with sorry only checks that the statements are well formed, not that the paper's argument has been verified by Lean. The general two-player Nash definition can be reused for other real-strategy games; the payoff and threshold definitions are specific to this supply chain.

Where the argument has to account for cases

The quantity equilibrium changes form as the wholesale price crosses r1r_1r1​ and r2r_2r2​. An argument confined to the two-selling-firms region misses cases in which M1M_1M1​ sells nothing, or neither manufacturer sells. Comparing only the duopoly formulas cannot establish an inequality at every nonnegative price. The first milestone therefore covers all three regimes, and the goal compares the profits of actual equilibria. The fact that T2≥T1T_2\ge T_1T2​≥T1​ orders the possible monopoly toward M2M_2M2​ under the paper's chosen labels; a formulation that silently assumes both equilibrium quantities are strictly positive would lose part of Proposition 1.

Formalization scope

All parameters and quantities are real. The permitted quantity strategies and wholesale prices are nonnegative. The paper treats rrr as a wholesale price without writing a bound in Proposition 1; r≥0r\ge0r≥0 is made explicit because a negative price can reverse the supplier-profit inequality. The innovation ordering 0≤T1≤T20\le T_1\le T_20≤T1​≤T2​ is the convention immediately preceding equation (2). Licensing effectiveness lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Innovation costs kiTi2k_iT_i^2ki​Ti2​ and the paper's bound k2>49/144k_2>49/144k2​>49/144 are unnecessary once innovation levels are fixed, so they do not enter this mission's statements.

The formalization uses an explicit pair (q1,q2)(q_1,q_2)(q1​,q2​), with the first coordinate for M1M_1M1​. The quantity-game equilibrium is defined by unilateral payoff comparisons over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and it is not defined by equation (2). Equation (2) is instead a theorem characterizing the equilibrium. The supplier's profit is defined as r(q1+q2)r(q_1+q_2)r(q1​+q2​) for any pair, independently of equation (3). These choices prevent the goal from becoming an inequality between two expressions whose connection to the game has merely been assumed. Equation (2)'s missing closing parenthesis in the manuscript is interpreted as the displayed first quantity divided by three. No division in the model's displayed formulas has a variable denominator.

Selected references

  • J. Wang, T. Huang and J. Lee, Cross-licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers, SSRN manuscript 3053682, version of 2023-04-27, pp. 9–11 and Appendix p. A.1; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023. Manuscript; DOI.
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A Robust Spectral Clustering Algorithm for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Models with Outliers 3: Binary PSD Rank-r Lifting (4) Is Equivalent to Robust Cluster Assignment (3)Research Paper

Why this formulation matters

Clustering separates observations into groups whose members resemble one another. In kernel clustering, a matrix KKK records a similarity score for each pair of observations, and an assignment seeks groups with high total within-group similarity. Real data can also contain outliers, observations that should not be assigned to any cluster. Srivastava, Sarkar, and Hanasusanto use a binary assignment program that permits those unassigned observations and then express the same exact problem through a matrix of pairwise co-memberships. The relationship is stated as Proposition 1 of their preprint. It is the algebraic starting point for the tractable relaxations introduced immediately after the proposition in §3.

The two exact programs have different variables. The assignment program describes each observation's cluster directly. The lifted program records whether each pair belongs to the same cluster. The latter representation makes positive semidefiniteness and rank explicit, and it is the one the paper relaxes to obtain its semidefinite program. A precise equivalence matters because a relaxation of the wrong feasible set would no longer be a relaxation of the stated assignment problem.

The two finite matrix programs

Let NNN be the number of observations and rrr the number of available clusters. A binary assignment matrix Z∈{0,1}N×rZ\in\{0,1\}^{N\times r}Z∈{0,1}N×r has one row per observation and one column per cluster. In formulation (3), each row sums to at most one. A row with one nonzero entry assigns its observation to that cluster; a zero row leaves the observation unassigned. Thus the same matrix represents both inliers and outliers. Cluster sizes need not be equal, and unused cluster columns are allowed.

The clustering matrix X=ZZ⊤X=ZZ^\topX=ZZ⊤ has one row and column per observation. Its entry XijX_{ij}Xij​ is one when observations iii and jjj share a cluster and zero otherwise, including when either observation has a zero assignment row. Formulation (4) asks instead for an N×NN\times NN×N matrix XXX whose entries lie in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}, that is positive semidefinite, and whose rank is at most rrr. The rank bound limits the number of distinct nonzero cluster directions. Positive semidefiniteness is a property of the full real matrix, including its symmetry; it is not merely a condition on its diagonal.

Let K∈RN×NK\in\mathbb R^{N\times N}K∈RN×N be the similarity matrix, γ∈R\gamma\in\mathbb Rγ∈R a penalty parameter, and ENE_NEN​ the all-ones N×NN\times NN×N matrix. The entrywise Frobenius inner product is ⟨A,B⟩=∑i,jAijBij\langle A,B\rangle=\sum_{i,j}A_{ij}B_{ij}⟨A,B⟩=∑i,j​Aij​Bij​. The programs maximize, respectively, ⟨K−γEN,ZZ⊤⟩\langle K-\gamma E_N,ZZ^\top\rangle⟨K−γEN​,ZZ⊤⟩ over feasible ZZZ and ⟨K−γEN,X⟩\langle K-\gamma E_N,X\rangle⟨K−γEN​,X⟩ over feasible XXX. Both have a feasible zero matrix, even at the boundary values N=0N=0N=0 and r=0r=0r=0.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 1, stated with its factor and rotation. If X∗X^*X∗ is an optimal matrix for (4), there must exist G∈RN×rG\in\mathbb R^{N\times r}G∈RN×r and an orthogonal O∈Rr×rO\in\mathbb R^{r\times r}O∈Rr×r such that Z∗=GOZ^*=GOZ∗=GO is feasible and optimal for (3), with

X∗=GG⊤,⟨K−γEN,Z∗Z∗⊤⟩=⟨K−γEN,X∗⟩.X^*=GG^\top,\qquad \langle K-\gamma E_N,Z^*Z^{*\top}\rangle =\langle K-\gamma E_N,X^*\rangle.X∗=GG⊤,⟨K−γEN​,Z∗Z∗⊤⟩=⟨K−γEN​,X∗⟩.

Here “feasible and optimal” includes the zero-one entry condition, the row-sum bound, and comparison with every feasible assignment matrix. The objective identity alone would say little: once the Gram factorization and orthogonality hold, it follows algebraically. The substantive result is the existence of an assignment-compatible rotation of a factor of every lifted optimum.

The milestone list follows the five claims in Appendix B of the preprint: lifting a feasible assignment to a feasible XXX without changing its value; factoring a rank-bounded positive semidefinite XXX through rrr columns; classifying factor rows as zero or unit vectors; showing that distinct nonzero rows are orthogonal; and rotating those rows into assignment coordinates. These statements address both directions of the feasible-set correspondence used by Proposition 1.

What the result supplies

The proposition says that the matrix constraints in (4) describe the same exact clustering choices as the assignment constraints in (3), up to a choice of orthogonal coordinates for the factor. A lifted optimum therefore represents an assignment optimum rather than merely a matrix with the same numerical objective. Conversely, an assignment can always be lifted to a matrix accepted by (4). The paper can then drop the binary or rank constraints to obtain relaxations while keeping a clear exact program as their reference point; see §3 of the preprint.

The proposition is proved in the source paper. This mission seeks a machine-checked proof of that known claim and reusable finite-matrix results about binary positive semidefinite Gram matrices. In particular, the factorization and row-structure milestones can be used beyond spectral clustering whenever a zero-one Gram matrix appears with a rank bound. The Lean declarations here are proposed statements; their sorry proofs remain for solvers to complete.

Where the difficulty lies

The forward implication is immediate once a valid assignment matrix is given: its Gram matrix is positive semidefinite and has rank at most the number of cluster columns. The reverse implication carries the mathematical work. Positive semidefiniteness and low rank alone produce a real factor, but the factor need not have zero-one entries. A generic factor rotation also need not yield one-hot rows. The zero-one condition on every Gram entry is what constrains the relative positions of the nonzero rows strongly enough to recover assignment directions. The result must work when several observations share a direction, when some rows vanish, and when fewer than rrr clusters are occupied.

Formalization scope

The formalization uses Mathlib matrices indexed by Fin N and Fin r over R\mathbb RR. Feasibility of (3) is entrywise membership in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} together with row sums at most one. Feasibility of (4) is entrywise membership in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}, Matrix.PosSemidef, and Matrix.rank ≤ r. The objectives use the explicit sum of entrywise products, so no operator norm or alternate matrix inner product enters the statement. Global optimality is defined by comparison against the corresponding whole feasible set. The factor GGG has exactly rrr columns, and the rotation belongs to the real orthogonal group of dimension rrr.

The paper obtains KKK from a Gaussian kernel and takes γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) for the clustering application. Proposition 1 and Appendix B use only the displayed algebraic programs, so the formal statement permits arbitrary real KKK and γ\gammaγ. No probability model, symmetry assumption on KKK, positive dimension assumption, or nonempty-cluster condition is needed. The boundary cases N=0N=0N=0 and r=0r=0r=0 retain their literal meanings. The formalization cannot assume that a feasible XXX is already block diagonal or is already a Gram matrix of a binary assignment; that is the conclusion being established.

Useful contributions include proofs of the five Appendix B milestones, a finite-dimensional factorization theorem with the prescribed number of columns, and the rotation theorem that handles repeated or zero rows. These pieces should share the stated definitions so that the eventual proof of Proposition 1 uses precisely formulations (3) and (4).

Selected references

  • P. R. Srivastava, P. Sarkar, and G. A. Hanasusanto, A Robust Spectral Clustering Algorithm for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Models with Outliers, Operations Research 71(1), 2023; arXiv:1912.07546v3, §3, Proposition 1 and Appendix B.
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Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Subsidy, Pricing, and Payment Schemes II: Consortium Price, No Cure No Pay: Subsidize Only Patients When the Price Is High, Only the Manufacturer When LowResearch Paper

Motivation

A rare disease affects few patients, so a drug for it has a small market and its research and development (R&D) cost is spread over few sales. Governments respond with two kinds of subsidy: cost subsidies that pay part of the manufacturer's R&D bill (orphan drug programmes), and price subsidies that pay part of what each patient is charged. At the same time two practices change how drugs are priced and paid for. In some markets an independent consortium negotiates the price instead of the manufacturer, and some manufacturers offer outcome-based payment ("No Cure No Pay", as in a programme of Bristol-Myers Squibb), under which the patient pays only if the drug works.

W. Olsder, T. Martagan and C. S. Tang ask how a government with a fixed budget should divide it between the manufacturer and the patients under each pricing and payment regime. This mission formalizes their analysis of the regime with a consortium price and outcome-based payment, Setting (2B) of the paper, where the answer depends on the price: for a high price only patients should be subsidized, and for a low price only the manufacturer. The source is the SSRN working paper 3481150 (version of 2019-11-13); the article later appeared in Management Science (2023) with possibly different numbering, which is not used here.

Setting

The market has size one. A patient's valuation VVV of an efficacious drug is uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The model has three positive primitives: the R&D cost scale kkk, the government's budget BBB, and the unit price ppp, which the consortium fixes and which lies in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

  • A subsidy policy is a pair (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β) with α∈[0,1)\alpha\in[0,1)α∈[0,1) and β∈[0,1)\beta\in[0,1)β∈[0,1). The government pays the share α\alphaα of the R&D cost and the share β\betaβ of the unit price.
  • The manufacturer chooses a target efficacy e>0e>0e>0, the probability that the drug works, at R&D cost ke2ke^2ke2. Under outcome-based payment it is paid ppp per patient only when the drug works, and the demand is 1−(1−β)p1-(1-\beta)p1−(1−β)p. Its profit, the bracket of the paper's (9), is
πm(e)=e p [1−(1−β)p]−(1−α)ke2.\pi_m(e)=e\,p\,[1-(1-\beta)p]-(1-\alpha)ke^2 .πm​(e)=ep[1−(1−β)p]−(1−α)ke2.

A best response to (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β) is a maximizer of πm\pi_mπm​ over e>0e>0e>0.

  • At efficacy eee the patient welfare (7) and the government spending, the left-hand side of the budget constraint in (10), are
W=12 e (1−(1−β)p)2,M=αke2+e βp [1−(1−β)p].W=\tfrac12\,e\,(1-(1-\beta)p)^2,\qquad M=\alpha k e^2+e\,\beta p\,[1-(1-\beta)p].W=21​e(1−(1−β)p)2,M=αke2+eβp[1−(1−β)p].
  • A policy is optimal when it has a best response at which M≤BM\le BM≤B and its welfare there is at least the welfare of every other policy at each of that policy's best responses with M≤BM\le BM≤B.
  • αmax⁡\alpha_{\max}αmax​ is the largest α∈[0,1)\alpha\in[0,1)α∈[0,1) for which the policy (α,0)(\alpha,0)(α,0) is affordable at the manufacturer's best response.

The Lean development names these objects IsPolicy, profit, BR, welfare, spend, IsOptimal and IsAlphaMax, in the namespace RareDisease.ExogOutcome.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3, parts 1 and 3

For k>0k>0k>0, B>0B>0B>0, 0<p<10<p<10<p<1 and αmax⁡\alpha_{\max}αmax​ as above:

  1. At every optimal policy the budget constraint binds: M=BM=BM=B at the best response.
  2. If
p ≥ 25−αmax⁡andB<p22k,p\ \ge\ \frac{2}{5-\alpha_{\max}}\quad\text{and}\quad B<\frac{p^2}{2k},p ≥ 5−αmax​2​andB<2kp2​,

then there is a β1\beta_1β1​ such that (0,β1)(0,\beta_1)(0,β1​) is optimal and every optimal policy equals (0,β1)(0,\beta_1)(0,β1​). Only patients are subsidized. 3. If

p ≤ 2(1−αmax⁡)5,p\ \le\ \frac{2(1-\alpha_{\max})}{5},p ≤ 52(1−αmax​)​,

then (αmax⁡,0)(\alpha_{\max},0)(αmax​,0) is optimal, every optimal policy equals it, and

αmax⁡=8Bk+p4−2p3+p2−(p−p2)16Bk+p4−2p3+p28Bk.\alpha_{\max}=\frac{8Bk+p^4-2p^3+p^2-(p-p^2)\sqrt{16Bk+p^4-2p^3+p^2}}{8Bk}.αmax​=8Bk8Bk+p4−2p3+p2−(p−p2)16Bk+p4−2p3+p2​​.

Only the manufacturer is subsidized.

The thresholds are the printed ones. They are not the sharpest possible (see Formalization scope), but they are what the paper states.

Milestones

In attack order: the best response (19), e∗=p(1−(1−β)p)/(2(1−α)k)e^*=p(1-(1-\beta)p)/(2(1-\alpha)k)e∗=p(1−(1−β)p)/(2(1−α)k); the reduced problem (20), giving welfare and spending at the best response; the fact that both expressions of (20) are increasing in α\alphaα and in β\betaβ; and the marginal-rate identity from the proof of Proposition 3 (Appendix C, p. 37), whose sign is that of (5−α)p−2(1−α)(5-\alpha)p-2(1-\alpha)(5−α)p−2(1−α).

Significance

The result splits the decision between subsidizing patients and subsidizing the manufacturer by a single comparison of the consortium's price with thresholds that depend only on the budget and the cost scale. For a policy maker the consequence is concrete. A high negotiated price already gives the manufacturer enough incentive to develop an efficacious drug, so every unit of budget should lower what patients pay. A low price leaves the manufacturer short of incentive, so every unit should go to R&D. Splitting the budget is never optimal in either regime.

The formalization adds three things. First, it checks a statement whose printed form has errors. Part 2 of the proposition, "subsidize both" for intermediate prices, is false as printed: B=0.05B=0.05B=0.05, k=0.3k=0.3k=0.3, p=0.2p=0.2p=0.2 lies in the printed middle range, yet the unique optimum is manufacturer-only. The printed closed form for the patient subsidy in part 1 does not satisfy the binding budget constraint. Second, the proof in the paper is a marginal argument along the binding curve, and its extremal step takes a maximum over α\alphaα at the wrong end; the parts posed here stay true because their thresholds are stronger than needed, which a machine-checked proof makes explicit. Third, the game is stated as a game: the government's problem is posed over the manufacturer's best-response set, not over the reduced formulas, so the reduction (19)–(20) is itself a theorem. None of these results has a machine-checked proof yet.

Difficulty

The reduced problem (20) is a two-variable optimization with a nonlinear constraint, and its feasible region has no simple shape. The obvious first idea is to solve the first-order conditions of the Lagrangian, but the optimum of parts 1 and 3 is on the boundary of the policy square (α=0\alpha=0α=0 or β=0\beta=0β=0), so stationarity says nothing there. What has to be shown instead is a global sign property along the whole binding curve: trading manufacturer subsidy for patient subsidy changes welfare per unit of spending with the sign of (5−α)p−2(1−α)(5-\alpha)p-2(1-\alpha)(5−α)p−2(1−α), and this sign must be controlled for every α\alphaα the curve passes through. That requires knowing that the curve stays in α≤αmax⁡\alpha\le\alpha_{\max}α≤αmax​, which comes from the monotonicity of spending. Two existence and uniqueness questions also arise. In part 1 a patient-only policy must exhaust the budget with β<1\beta<1β<1, which is where B<p2/(2k)B<p^2/(2k)B<p2/(2k) enters. In both parts no other policy may tie the optimum.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The standing assumptions k>0k>0k>0, B>0B>0B>0 and 0<p<10<p<10<p<1 are hypotheses of every theorem. The paper uses them without stating them: with p≥1p\ge1p≥1 and β=0\beta=0β=0 the demand 1−p1-p1−p is not positive and the manufacturer has no best response with e>0e>0e>0; the closed form of αmax⁡\alpha_{\max}αmax​ divides by 8Bk8Bk8Bk. As in the paper, the efficacy eee ranges over all positive reals and is not bounded by 111. Policies satisfy α,β∈[0,1)\alpha,\beta\in[0,1)α,β∈[0,1), a half-open interval.

The added hypothesis B<p2/(2k)B<p^2/(2k)B<p2/(2k) in part 1 is necessary. With α=0\alpha=0α=0 the spending tends to p2/(2k)p^2/(2k)p2/(2k) as β↑1\beta\uparrow1β↑1, so for larger budgets no patient-only policy exhausts the budget. The thresholds 2/(5−αmax⁡)2/(5-\alpha_{\max})2/(5−αmax​) and 2(1−αmax⁡)/52(1-\alpha_{\max})/52(1−αmax​)/5 are posed as printed; replacing them by the sharper values 2/52/52/5 and 2(1−αmax⁡)/(5−αmax⁡)2(1-\alpha_{\max})/(5-\alpha_{\max})2(1−αmax​)/(5−αmax​) would be a different theorem. Part 2 and the printed closed form of part 1 are not posed, because both are false as printed.

The formalization cannot be trivialized by defining the government's problem through the reduced forms (20), because welfare and spending in IsOptimal are evaluated at members of the best-response set BR. "Optimal" means attained and compared against every policy at every best response, not a supremum. αmax⁡\alpha_{\max}αmax​ is defined as the greatest affordable manufacturer-only subsidy, not by its closed form, which is part of the goal.

A complete development needs only real analysis from Mathlib: maximization of a concave quadratic, monotonicity of rational functions, one-variable derivatives for the marginal-rate milestone, and Real.sqrt for the closed form. Proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • W. Olsder, T. Martagan, C. S. Tang, Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Optimal Subsidies, Pricing, and Payment, SSRN working paper 3481150, version of 2019-11-13. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3481150
  • W. Olsder, T. Martagan, C. S. Tang, Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Subsidy, Pricing, and Payment Schemes, Management Science, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4634
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The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization II: On Low-Moreishness, Near-Constant-Value Manifolds, Engagement Maximization Is Near-OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Recommender systems on online platforms are usually trained to maximize engagement: time spent, items consumed, sessions returned. The implicit justification is revealed preference: a user who consumes more must value the content more. Behavioural economics questions that inference when a person's choices are driven by two conflicting processes, a deliberate one that weighs long-run utility and an impulsive one that reacts to the item in front of it.

Kleinberg, Mullainathan and Raghavan (2023) build a minimal model of such a user and ask when engagement is a good proxy for utility. Their first characterization (Theorem 4.1, a separate mission) says that the engagement-maximizing content differs from the utility-maximizing content only through higher moreishness, or higher span with lower value. This mission formalizes the complementary positive result, Theorem 4.2: on a content manifold where no content is very moreish and all content has roughly equal value (a "salad"-like manifold), maximizing engagement loses only a small, explicitly bounded amount of user utility.

Setting

A content distribution is a triple ω=(p,q,vˉ)\omega=(p,q,\bar v)ω=(p,q,vˉ) in the parameter space

Ω=[0,1)×[0,1)×R+.\Omega=[0,1)\times[0,1)\times\mathbb R_+ .Ω=[0,1)×[0,1)×R+​.

The user consumes items one at a time. System 2, the deliberate agent, collects utility with mean vˉ\bar vvˉ per item while it is still interested, and pays an outside option W>0W>0W>0 per step spent on the platform. After each item system 2 stays interested with probability qqq, the span. System 1, the impulsive agent, is hooked by each item with probability ppp, the moreishness, and then consumes the next item without consulting system 2. Define

gS(ω)=vˉ−W1−q−pW1−p,gT(ω)=11−q+p1−p.g_S(\omega)=\frac{\bar v-W}{1-q}-\frac{pW}{1-p},\qquad g_T(\omega)=\frac{1}{1-q}+\frac{p}{1-p}.gS​(ω)=1−qvˉ−W​−1−ppW​,gT​(ω)=1−q1​+1−pp​.

System 2 visits the platform only if this is worthwhile, so its expected utility is equation (1),

E[S(ω)]=max⁡(gS(ω),0),\mathbb E[S(\omega)]=\max\bigl(g_S(\omega),0\bigr),E[S(ω)]=max(gS​(ω),0),

and the session length TTT is 000 when the user does not visit (gS(ω)<0g_S(\omega)<0gS​(ω)<0) and otherwise has expectation E[T(ω)]=gT(ω)\mathbb E[T(\omega)]=g_T(\omega)E[T(ω)]=gT​(ω), equation (2).

A platform chooses content from a content manifold M⊆Ω\mathcal M\subseteq\OmegaM⊆Ω, which the paper assumes contains a point with E[S]>0\mathbb E[S]>0E[S]>0. The utility maximizer ωS=(pS,qS,vˉS)\omega_S=(p_S,q_S,\bar v_S)ωS​=(pS​,qS​,vˉS​) maximizes gSg_SgS​ over M\mathcal MM (3). The engagement maximizer ωT=(pT,qT,vˉT)\omega_T=(p_T,q_T,\bar v_T)ωT​=(pT​,qT​,vˉT​) maximizes gTg_TgT​ over the points of M\mathcal MM at which the user participates, {ω∈M:gS(ω)≥0}\{\omega\in\mathcal M:g_S(\omega)\ge0\}{ω∈M:gS​(ω)≥0} (4). The proof uses ai=11−pia_i=\frac{1}{1-p_i}ai​=1−pi​1​ and bi=11−qib_i=\frac{1}{1-q_i}bi​=1−qi​1​ for i∈{S,T}i\in\{S,T\}i∈{S,T}, so that E[T(ωS)]=aS+bS−1\mathbb E[T(\omega_S)]=a_S+b_S-1E[T(ωS​)]=aS​+bS​−1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 17)

Suppose p≤α<1p\le\alpha<1p≤α<1 for every (p,q,vˉ)∈M(p,q,\bar v)\in\mathcal M(p,q,vˉ)∈M, and ∣vˉ−v0∣<β|\bar v-v_0|<\beta∣vˉ−v0​∣<β for every (p,q,vˉ)∈M(p,q,\bar v)\in\mathcal M(p,q,vˉ)∈M, for some v0v_0v0​. Then

E[S(ωT)] ≥ E[S(ωS)]−2β E[T(ωS)]−α(v0+β)1−α.\mathbb E[S(\omega_T)]\ \ge\ \mathbb E[S(\omega_S)]-2\beta\,\mathbb E[T(\omega_S)]-\frac{\alpha(v_0+\beta)}{1-\alpha}.E[S(ωT​)] ≥ E[S(ωS​)]−2βE[T(ωS​)]−1−αα(v0​+β)​.

Milestones (p. 18)

  1. Inequality (5): if gT(ωT)≥gT(ωS)g_T(\omega_T)\ge g_T(\omega_S)gT​(ωT​)≥gT​(ωS​), then bS−bT≤aT−aSb_S-b_T\le a_T-a_SbS​−bT​≤aT​−aS​.
  2. Inequality (7): if 0≤pi≤α<10\le p_i\le\alpha<10≤pi​≤α<1, then 1≤ai≤11−α1\le a_i\le\frac{1}{1-\alpha}1≤ai​≤1−α1​.
  3. The gap identity: when gS≥0g_S\ge0gS​≥0 at both points,
E[S(ωS)]−E[S(ωT)]=bS(vˉS−vˉT)+(bS−bT)(vˉT−W)+W(aT−aS).\mathbb E[S(\omega_S)]-\mathbb E[S(\omega_T)]=b_S(\bar v_S-\bar v_T)+(b_S-b_T)(\bar v_T-W)+W(a_T-a_S).E[S(ωS​)]−E[S(ωT​)]=bS​(vˉS​−vˉT​)+(bS​−bT​)(vˉT​−W)+W(aT​−aS​).

A supporting statement, implicit in the proof, is that participation gS(ω)≥0g_S(\omega)\ge0gS​(ω)≥0 at a point of Ω\OmegaΩ forces vˉ≥W\bar v\ge Wvˉ≥W.

Significance

The theorem is the paper's sufficient condition for engagement optimization to be benign. It is quantitative: the utility loss is linear in the value spread β\betaβ, scaled by the engagement E[T(ωS)]\mathbb E[T(\omega_S)]E[T(ωS​)] of the utility-optimal content, plus a term that vanishes as the moreishness bound α\alphaα goes to 000. The paper notes that the linear dependence on engagement is unavoidable, since a user can lose a constant utility per step when vˉT<vˉS\bar v_T<\bar v_SvˉT​<vˉS​. Together with Theorem 4.1 it delimits when a platform that observes only engagement can safely optimize it, and it motivates the paper's §5, on how a platform might learn which kind of manifold it is on.

The result is proved in the paper, with a short proof. As far as is known, neither the model nor the theorem has been machine-checked. The formalization fixes the participation convention for E[T]\mathbb E[T]E[T], the feasibility of ωS\omega_SωS​ in the engagement problem, and the implicit hypotheses listed below, which the printed proof uses without stating.

Difficulty

The algebra is elementary once the denominators are known to be positive. The difficulty lies in the bookkeeping the printed proof leaves implicit. Inequality (5) is derived from "E[T(ωT)]>E[T(ωS)]\mathbb E[T(\omega_T)]>\mathbb E[T(\omega_S)]E[T(ωT​)]>E[T(ωS​)]", but (4) only gives ≥\ge≥, and only once ωS\omega_SωS​ is shown feasible for (4), which needs gS(ωS)>0g_S(\omega_S)>0gS​(ωS​)>0, i.e. the standing assumption on M\mathcal MM. Multiplying (5) by vˉT−W\bar v_T-WvˉT​−W needs vˉT≥W\bar v_T\ge WvˉT​≥W, which follows from gS(ωT)≥0g_S(\omega_T)\ge0gS​(ωT​)≥0 and W>0W>0W>0. The bound on (aT−aS)vˉT(a_T-a_S)\bar v_T(aT​−aS​)vˉT​ splits on the sign of aT−aSa_T-a_SaT​−aS​, and uses α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0 (from M≠∅\mathcal M\neq\emptysetM=∅) and v0+β>vˉT≥0v_0+\beta>\bar v_T\ge0v0​+β>vˉT​≥0. Finally, E[T(ωS)]\mathbb E[T(\omega_S)]E[T(ωS​)] must be identified with aS+bS−1a_S+b_S-1aS​+bS​−1 through participation at ωS\omega_SωS​. Using gTg_TgT​ in place of E[T]\mathbb E[T]E[T], or dropping the participation constraint from (4), changes the theorem.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace EngagementOpt.Salad and imports the frozen shared model in EngagementOpt.Misalign. There, a content distribution is a structure Params with real fields p, q, v; InOmega ω states 0≤p<10\le p<10≤p<1, 0≤q<10\le q<10≤q<1, 0≤vˉ0\le\bar v0≤vˉ. The shared functions gS W, gT and this chunk's ES W, ET W, aCoef, bCoef are as above, with ET W ω = if gS W ω < 0 then 0 else gT ω. The shared maximizer predicates IsUtilityMaximizer W M ωS (membership and IsMaxOn (gS W) M ωS) and IsEngagementMaximizer W M ωT (membership, 0 ≤ gS W ωT, and IsMaxOn gT {ω ∈ M | 0 ≤ gS W ω} ωT) hold for every maximizer, so the theorem holds for any tie-breaking rule. Closedness of M\mathcal MM only guarantees that maximizers exist and is not assumed. The goal's hypotheses are: W>0W>0W>0; M⊆Ω\mathcal M\subseteq\OmegaM⊆Ω; a point of M\mathcal MM with gS>0g_S>0gS​>0; the two maximizer predicates; α<1\alpha<1α<1 and p≤αp\le\alphap≤α on M\mathcal MM; and ∣vˉ−v0∣<β|\bar v-v_0|<\beta∣vˉ−v0​∣<β on M\mathcal MM for a given v0v_0v0​.

Three of these are implicit in the paper and are disclosed: W>0W>0W>0 (§2.1 normalizes W=1W=1W=1); α<1\alpha<1α<1, without which condition 1 is vacuous on Ω\OmegaΩ and the bound fails (Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 would turn α=1\alpha=1α=1 into a false statement); and the standing assumption of p. 16. Neither 0≤α0\le\alpha0≤α nor 0<β0<\beta0<β is assumed; both follow from the hypotheses. Inequality (5) is posed with ≤\le≤ rather than the printed <<<, because only ≥\ge≥ is available from (4). The hypotheses are satisfiable: with W=1W=1W=1, M={(0,12,3),(12,12,3)}\mathcal M=\{(0,\tfrac12,3),(\tfrac12,\tfrac12,3)\}M={(0,21​,3),(21​,21​,3)}, α=12\alpha=\tfrac12α=21​, v0=3v_0=3v0​=3, β=0.1\beta=0.1β=0.1, the maximizers are ωS=(0,12,3)\omega_S=(0,\tfrac12,3)ωS​=(0,21​,3) and ωT=(12,12,3)\omega_T=(\tfrac12,\tfrac12,3)ωT​=(21​,21​,3), and the bound reads 3≥0.53\ge0.53≥0.5.

Everything needed is in Mathlib (real arithmetic, max, |·|, IsMaxOn). Proofs of the milestones and the goal are welcome; the base model module is shared with the Theorem 4.1 mission of the same paper.

Selected references

  • J. Kleinberg, S. Mullainathan, M. Raghavan, The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization, Management Science, 2023. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2022.03683; read as arXiv:2202.11776v3.
  • G. S. Becker, K. M. Murphy, A Theory of Rational Addiction, Journal of Political Economy 96(4), 1988. DOI 10.1086/261558.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantum Economic Advantage: A Quantum Computing Firm Can Out-Invest a Cheaper-to-Scale Classical Rival in Subgame-Perfect EquilibriumResearch Paper

Why investment can reverse a cost advantage

Quantum algorithms can reduce the work needed for some computations, but a provider also has to build hardware capable of serving a market. Bova, Goldfarb, and Melko model these two costs separately in Quantum Economic Advantage. Their question is whether a quantum provider can choose more market-creating investment than a classical rival even when building that additional quantum capacity is more expensive. The answer matters to their economic comparison: a lower variable cost does not, by itself, order the firms' investment decisions.

The working paper was circulated as NBER Working Paper No. 29724 in February 2022 and appeared in Management Science in 2023. This mission cites the NBER version throughout. It addresses the paper's Proposition 2, its explicit numerical witness, and the model results used around that proposition. The paper proves these results analytically; the remaining task here is a machine-checked formalization of their statements and proofs.

The two-stage duopoly

There are two firms. Firm 1 supplies quantum computing and has constant unit cost ccc; firm 2 supplies classical computing and has unit cost c2c^2c2. A common demand intercept aaa measures the initial market size. The paper assumes a>c2>c>1a>c^2>c>1a>c2>c>1. The firms sell differentiated computing services, with substitution parameter γ∈[0,1]\gamma\in[0,1]γ∈[0,1]: at γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 their products do not compete through demand, while at γ=1\gamma=1γ=1 they are identical in the model. This is an economic representation of quantum advantage, rather than a formal model of a quantum algorithm. See §2 of the working paper.

In stage 1, firms simultaneously choose investments x1,x2≥0x_1,x_2\ge0x1​,x2​≥0. Firm iii pays Bixi2/2B_i x_i^2/2Bi​xi2​/2, where Bi>0B_i>0Bi​>0, and its investment raises its own demand intercept to a+xia+x_ia+xi​. In stage 2, after observing both investments, firms simultaneously choose quantities q1,q2≥0q_1,q_2\ge0q1​,q2​≥0. Their inverse-demand prices and profits are

p1=a+x1−q1−γq2,p2=a+x2−q2−γq1,p_1=a+x_1-q_1-\gamma q_2,\qquad p_2=a+x_2-q_2-\gamma q_1,p1​=a+x1​−q1​−γq2​,p2​=a+x2​−q2​−γq1​, π1=q1p1−cq1−B1x122,π2=q2p2−c2q2−B2x222.\pi_1=q_1p_1-cq_1-\frac{B_1x_1^2}{2},\qquad \pi_2=q_2p_2-c^2q_2-\frac{B_2x_2^2}{2}.π1​=q1​p1​−cq1​−2B1​x12​​,π2​=q2​p2​−c2q2​−2B2​x22​​.

A subgame-perfect equilibrium consists of an investment pair and a quantity strategy assigning a Cournot Nash equilibrium to every feasible investment pair, including pairs reached after a unilateral deviation. At the chosen investments, neither firm can improve its profit by changing its own investment, anticipating the stage-2 strategy. The stage-2 payoff excludes investment cost because that cost is already sunk when quantities are chosen.

Formalization targets

Proposition 2: investment reversal

The goal is the paper's existence claim, over the game itself:

∃ (a,c,γ,B1,B2) satisfying the model and Lemma 1 conditions,B2<B1,∃ an SPE,∀ SPEs,  x2<x1.\exists\,(a,c,\gamma,B_1,B_2)\text{ satisfying the model and Lemma 1 conditions},\quad B_2<B_1,\quad \exists\,\text{an SPE},\quad \forall\,\text{SPEs},\;x_2<x_1.∃(a,c,γ,B1​,B2​) satisfying the model and Lemma 1 conditions,B2​<B1​,∃an SPE,∀SPEs,x2​<x1​.

The classical firm's cost coefficient is smaller, yet the quantum firm invests more. The proof gives a=20a=20a=20, c=2c=2c=2, γ=1\gamma=1γ=1, B1=10B_1=10B1​=10, B2=8B_2=8B2​=8; its investments are x1∗=102/109x_1^*=102/109x1∗​=102/109 and x2∗=89/109x_2^*=89/109x2∗​=89/109. The goal concerns the actual two-stage equilibrium, so the closed forms are supporting milestones rather than the definition of success. The paper's Proposition 2 and its proof appear on PDF pages 14 and 27–28.

Supporting results

Equations (3)–(4) give the interior Cournot quantities; (14)–(15) give the second derivatives of reduced profit; Lemma 1 gives sufficient parameter thresholds for positive investments and concavity; and (5)–(6) give equilibrium investments. Section 7 derives an exact threshold for the inequality x1∗>x2∗x_1^*>x_2^*x1∗​>x2∗​ and evaluates it at the numerical witness. Additional milestones record the displayed optimal profits, Proposition 1 on positive quantum profit, the no-investment comparative static of (11)–(12), and Corollary 1's monopoly case. These targets follow the working paper's equations and proofs.

What the result establishes

The result separates a firm's marginal cost of supplying computations from its cost of expanding the market. In this model, the quantum firm can justify a larger investment even with a larger coefficient on investment cost. The exact threshold identifies which combination of demand, variable cost, competition, and investment costs creates that ordering. Proposition 1 and the comparative static make related claims about profitability and the value of additional market size.

A complete formalization would connect the printed algebraic formulas to best responses over nonnegative actions, including possible corner outcomes after off-path investments. The reusable component is the published linear differentiated Cournot game; this mission adds the investment stage and source-specific parameters. The working paper supplies proofs on paper, while the Lean theorem files here are open statements awaiting machine-checked proofs.

Where the argument is delicate

Equations (3)–(4) solve interior first-order conditions, but stage-2 deviations can drive one firm's quantity to zero. A proof about a genuine subgame-perfect equilibrium must handle those corners throughout the strategy, not only at the final investment pair. Likewise, the second derivatives of the algebraic interior profit do not automatically settle every stage-1 deviation in the constrained game. The mission's equilibrium milestone must bridge those two readings. Lemma 1's thresholds also contain quotients whose denominators require checking under the stated parameter conditions.

Formalization scope and conventions

All parameters, investments, quantities, profits, and thresholds are real. The formalization requires xi,qi≥0x_i,q_i\ge0xi​,qi​≥0 in the equilibrium predicates. Standing records 0≤γ≤10\le\gamma\le10≤γ≤1, a>c2>c>1a>c^2>c>1a>c2>c>1, and positive BiB_iBi​. Lemma1Cond records the strict thresholds at the end of the proof of Lemma 1, with the paper's Max⁡\operatorname{Max}Max represented by real max. Firm 1 is quantum throughout; firm 2's unit cost is defined as c2c^2c2, not an independent parameter. The closed-form quantities and investments are used in milestones; the main goal quantifies over the subgame-perfect equilibrium predicate.

Several printed or implicit conventions affect the statements. Lemma 1 is phrased loosely on PDF page 11; its proof's exact sufficient conditions on page 26 are the milestone. The proof's strict claims about differences of thresholds become equalities when γ=0\gamma=0γ=0, without changing the final sufficient condition. Corollary 1 uses a different regime, a<c2a<c^2a<c2, and is stated without the main model's Standing condition; c<ac<ac<a ensures the asserted quantum monopoly has positive output. The comparative static concerns the separate model with x1=x2=0x_1=x_2=0x1​=x2​=0. A printed reference to optimal profits in “(11)” in the proof of Proposition 1 points to the unnumbered optimal-profit display on PDF page 12. The repeated x1∗x_1^*x1∗​ in the proof of Proposition 2 is read as x1∗,x2∗x_1^*,x_2^*x1∗​,x2∗​.

Useful contributions include proofs about nonnegative Cournot best responses and their uniqueness, the boundary behavior of stage-1 reduced profits, the exact sign conditions on the paper's denominators, and proofs of the source-indexed statements. The definition layer is meant to be shared by all results in this one paper.

Selected references

  • Francesco Bova, Avi Goldfarb, and Roger G. Melko, Quantum Economic Advantage, NBER Working Paper No. 29724, 2022. Working paper.
  • Francesco Bova, Avi Goldfarb, and Roger G. Melko, Quantum Economic Advantage, Management Science, 2023. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4578. The mission's theorem numbering follows the NBER version above.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Theory of Liquidity in Private Equity I: Without a Secondary Market, Two Capital-Share Thresholds Characterize Equilibrium, and Liquid LPs Earn Strictly More When Both Fund Types ExistResearch Paper

Why liquidity can explain persistent private equity returns

Private equity funds are organized as limited partnerships. Limited partners (LPs: pension funds, endowments, insurers) commit capital, and a general partner (GP) manages the fund and calls the committed capital over several years. A well-documented empirical regularity is that some LPs earn persistently higher returns than others, and that fund returns persist across a GP's successive funds (Kaplan and Schoar, 2005; Lerner, Schoar and Wongsunwai, 2007). The usual explanation is differences in skill.

Maurin, Robinson and Strömberg propose a different channel. Because capital is called gradually, an LP hit by a liquidity shock may default on the remaining commitment. GPs who raise money from LPs that tolerate illiquidity can invest efficiently. GPs who raise money from LPs that do not must call capital early to protect themselves against default, which distorts investment. When illiquidity-tolerant capital is scarce, GPs compete for it and pay its owners a premium. This mission formalizes the paper's main equilibrium result without a secondary market: that premium exists exactly when both kinds of funds are raised.

Setting

An investment pays RRR per unit on success and 000 on failure. It succeeds with probability ppp if the GP exerts effort and with probability q<pq<pq<p if the GP shirks, in which case the GP enjoys a private benefit BBB per unit invested. Each GP has wealth AAA and runs one fund of total size I>AI>AI>A. A share x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] of the fund is invested in period 0 and the rest, 1−x1-x1−x, in period 1; both investments succeed or fail independently.

A fee schedule fff pays the GP a fee per unit of investment that depends on which investments succeeded. It must satisfy limited liability, 0≤f≤0\le f\le0≤f≤ the fund's cash flow, and incentive compatibility: effort on both investments must be at least as profitable for the GP as shirking on either or both. Write fˉ\bar ffˉ​ for the expected fee under effort. LPs who receive the promised expected return Rˉ\bar RRˉ per unit contributed supply I−AI-AI−A, which ties the fund size to the fee through

(pR−fˉ) I=Rˉ (I−A).(3)(pR-\bar f)\,I=\bar R\,(I-A).\qquad(3)(pR−fˉ​)I=Rˉ(I−A).(3)

LPs consume in periods 1 and 2. With probability λ∈(0,1)\lambda\in(0,1)λ∈(0,1) an aggregate liquidity shock hits in period 1. After the shock an LP discounts period-2 consumption by δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1). There are two types, LLL and HHH, with δL<δH\delta_L<\delta_HδL​<δH​, holding the shares 1−μH1-\mu_H1−μH​ and μH\mu_HμH​ of the LPs' total capital KKK. Without a secondary market an LP honours the second capital call only if the claim is worth at least its cost:

1−x≤δ Rˉ.(4)1-x\le\delta\,\bar R.\qquad(4)1−x≤δRˉ.(4)

A GP chooses (x,I,f)(x,I,f)(x,I,f) to maximize the profit ΠGP=fˉI\Pi_{GP}=\bar f IΠGP​=fˉ​I subject to (3) and (4). LPs invest in private equity when its value (1−λ)Rˉ+λδRˉ(1-\lambda)\bar R+\lambda\delta\bar R(1−λ)Rˉ+λδRˉ exceeds the value 111 of cash. An equilibrium (Definition 2) consists of the fractions αL,αH\alpha_L,\alpha_HαL​,αH​ of GPs raising each fund type, the returns RˉPE,L∗,RˉPE,H∗\bar R^*_{PE,L},\bar R^*_{PE,H}RˉPE,L∗​,RˉPE,H∗​, and optimal contracts such that GPs raise only profit-maximizing fund types and each primary market clears.

The key quantities are the LPs' break-even return 1+r(λ,δ)=1/(1−λ(1−δ))1+r(\lambda,\delta)=1/(1-\lambda(1-\delta))1+r(λ,δ)=1/(1−λ(1−δ)), the minimal safe early call x^(λ,δ)=1−δ/(1−λ(1−δ))\hat x(\lambda,\delta)=1-\delta/(1-\lambda(1-\delta))x^(λ,δ)=1−δ/(1−λ(1−δ)), and the tolerance threshold δ^(λ)=1−p/(p+(1−λ)q)\hat\delta(\lambda)=1-p/(p+(1-\lambda)q)δ^(λ)=1−p/(p+(1−λ)q). The Lean development uses the namespace PELiquidity.Primary, with grossReturn, xHat, deltaHat, xLow, xBar, IsFeasibleContract, IsOptimalContract, IsCapitalSupply and IsEquilibrium.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

There are thresholds

0<μ‾H<μˉH<10<\underline\mu_H<\bar\mu_H<10<μ​H​<μˉ​H​<1

such that for every μH∈(0,1)\mu_H\in(0,1)μH​∈(0,1) an equilibrium exists, and every equilibrium satisfies the following:

  • if μH<μ‾H\mu_H<\underline\mu_HμH​<μ​H​, both fund types are raised and RˉPE,H∗>RˉPE,L∗=1+r(λ,δL)\bar R^*_{PE,H}>\bar R^*_{PE,L}=1+r(\lambda,\delta_L)RˉPE,H∗​>RˉPE,L∗​=1+r(λ,δL​);
  • if μH≥μ‾H\mu_H\ge\underline\mu_HμH​≥μ​H​, then αL∗=0\alpha^*_L=0αL∗​=0;
  • RˉPE,H∗\bar R^*_{PE,H}RˉPE,H∗​ is strictly decreasing in μH\mu_HμH​ on [μ‾H,μˉH][\underline\mu_H,\bar\mu_H][μ​H​,μˉ​H​];
  • if μH≥μˉH\mu_H\ge\bar\mu_HμH​≥μˉ​H​, then RˉPE,H∗=1+r(λ,δH)\bar R^*_{PE,H}=1+r(\lambda,\delta_H)RˉPE,H∗​=1+r(λ,δH​).

The thresholds are existential, as in the paper. A variant pinning μˉH\bar\mu_Hμˉ​H​ by (C.3) is a welcome strengthening.

Milestones

  1. (11): the break-even return 1+r(λ,δ)1+r(\lambda,\delta)1+r(λ,δ), decreasing in δ\deltaδ.
  2. Lemma 1 with (12): ΠGP=pRI−Rˉ(I−A)\Pi_{GP}=pRI-\bar R(I-A)ΠGP​=pRI−Rˉ(I−A), so an optimal contract minimizes fˉ\bar ffˉ​.
  3. Lemma 2: the minimal incentive-compatible fee is (15), minimized exactly on x∈[q/(p+q),p/(p+q)]x\in[q/(p+q),p/(p+q)]x∈[q/(p+q),p/(p+q)].
  4. Proposition 1: under (4) the optimal early call is [max⁡{x‾,x^},xˉ][\max\{\underline x,\hat x\},\bar x][max{x​,x^},xˉ] if δ≥δ^(λ)\delta\ge\hat\delta(\lambda)δ≥δ^(λ), and x^(λ,δ)\hat x(\lambda,\delta)x^(λ,δ) with a strictly higher fee if δ<δ^(λ)\delta<\hat\delta(\lambda)δ<δ^(λ).
  5. (C.4): when only H-funds are raised above the H-LPs' break-even rate, μHK=IH−A=(pR−fˉH)A/(RˉH−(pR−fˉH))\mu_HK=I_H-A=(pR-\bar f_H)A/(\bar R_H-(pR-\bar f_H))μH​K=IH​−A=(pR−fˉ​H​)A/(RˉH​−(pR−fˉ​H​)); for fixed fee, the contribution decreases with RˉH\bar R_HRˉH​.
  6. (18): the indifference rate RˉPE,Hmax∈(1+r(λ,δL),pR)\bar R^{max}_{PE,H}\in(1+r(\lambda,\delta_L),pR)RˉPE,Hmax​∈(1+r(λ,δL​),pR).
  7. Lemma C.1: αL∗>0\alpha^*_L>0αL∗​>0 implies RˉPE,L∗=1+r(λ,δL)\bar R^*_{PE,L}=1+r(\lambda,\delta_L)RˉPE,L∗​=1+r(λ,δL​).

Significance

The result shows that heterogeneous liquidity needs alone, without any difference in skill, produce a cross-section of LP returns: when capital from liquidity-tolerant LPs is scarce, those LPs earn strictly more than other LPs investing in otherwise identical funds. When it is abundant, they earn only their fair liquidity premium. This separates a liquidity explanation of return persistence from a skill explanation, and it is the benchmark against which the paper's second main result, the effect of a secondary market (Proposition 3, a separate mission), is measured.

The paper proves the result by hand. No part of it has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would check the three-case equilibrium argument, including uniqueness, which the paper treats briefly. It would also fix the readings of Definition 2 that the printed statement leaves open (see below) and record the hypotheses the proofs use without stating. The fee-design lemma (Lemma 2) is a small linear program of independent interest for moral-hazard models with several projects.

Difficulty

The equilibrium statements quantify over every equilibrium, and an equilibrium includes an optimal contract for each fund type, optimal against all fee schedules, call shares and fund sizes. The obvious approach, substituting the closed-form fee (15) and the optimal call (17) into the profit function, does not suffice. Uniqueness requires showing that no other combination of returns, fund fractions and contracts clears both markets. That includes returns at which a fund type is not raised. It also includes returns above the break-even rate, where the no-default constraint loosens and the fee falls. Ruling these out needs the GP's optimal profit to be decreasing in the promised return even when the no-default constraint binds. The boundary at μ‾H\underline\mu_Hμ​H​, where the HHH-market just clears with every GP raising an HHH-fund, has to be placed correctly.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters. The parameter structure records 0<q<p≤10<q<p\le 10<q<p≤1, B,A,K>0B,A,K>0B,A,K>0, λ,δL,δH∈(0,1)\lambda,\delta_L,\delta_H\in(0,1)λ,δL​,δH​∈(0,1), and Assumptions 1, 2, 3 and 6 as printed. Two hypotheses are added and disclosed:
    • Assumption 5 is required strictly for δL\delta_LδL​, 1+r(λ,δL)<pR1+r(\lambda,\delta_L)<pR1+r(λ,δL​)<pR. With equality the GP's profit does not depend on the fee, and the strict ranking of returns fails.
    • B≤p(p−q)RB\le p(p-q)RB≤p(p−q)R makes limited liability compatible with incentive compatibility at every call share. The paper's Claim A.1 assumes the stronger R≥B/(p−q)2R\ge B/(p-q)^2R≥B/(p−q)2.
  • Fee schedules are indexed by the four success outcomes rather than the four cash-flow values. These differ only at x=1/2x=1/2x=1/2, and the minimal fee is the same.
  • Equation (3) is stated multiplied out with I>AI>AI>A, never as a quotient. A return at which the GP's profit is unbounded therefore admits no optimal contract and cannot be an equilibrium price. Contract optimality is global over (x,I,f)(x,I,f)(x,I,f).
  • Definition 2 is read with αL+αH=1\alpha_L+\alpha_H=1αL​+αH​=1, which the proof uses. GP fund choice is read as "a raised fund type is profit-maximizing", the only-if direction of the printed biconditional. The literal biconditional admits no equilibrium at μH=μ‾H\mu_H=\underline\mu_HμH​=μ​H​.
  • Two printed boundaries are corrected. Proposition 2 i) is stated for μH<μ‾H\mu_H<\underline\mu_HμH​<μ​H​, which resolves the overlap of its two cases as the proof does. "Decreasing" is read as strict.
  • Out of scope. Assumption 4 and capital-call relief (Appendix C.1) are not formalized, since the no-default constraint (4) is imposed directly. The GP takes Rˉ\bar RRˉ as given, so raising the promised return (C.2) is not modelled. Appendix A's alternative contracts and the "no fund" option are also out of scope.
  • Trivializations ruled out. The goal asserts existence of an equilibrium for every μH∈(0,1)\mu_H\in(0,1)μH​∈(0,1), so its "every equilibrium" clauses are not vacuous. The strict chain 0<μ‾H<μˉH<10<\underline\mu_H<\bar\mu_H<10<μ​H​<μˉ​H​<1 excludes degenerate thresholds.

Everything is built from Mathlib's real numbers and finite sums. The fee-schedule linear program (Lemma 2), the contract problem (Proposition 1) and the equilibrium predicate are reusable for the secondary-market mission of the same paper. Proofs of any milestone, and the pinned-threshold variant of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. Maurin, D. T. Robinson and P. Strömberg, A Theory of Liquidity in Private Equity, working paper, draft of December 2020; published in Management Science 69(10), 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4612
  • S. N. Kaplan and A. Schoar, Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows, Journal of Finance 60(4), 1791–1823, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00775.x
  • J. Lerner, A. Schoar and W. Wongsunwai, Smart Institutions, Foolish Choices: The Limited Partner Performance Puzzle, Journal of Finance 62(2), 731–764, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01220.x
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Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Subsidy, Pricing, and Payment Schemes I: With Manufacturer Pricing, Subsidize Only the Manufacturer; Outcome-Based Pay Raises the Price iff B < k − 1/8Research Paper

Motivation

Treatments for rare diseases can require substantial research and development spending while reaching a small patient population. A public subsidy can cover part of the manufacturer's development cost, part of the patient's price, or both. Which recipient should receive the subsidy depends on how the manufacturer responds. A further design choice is whether the manufacturer is paid when a drug is sold or only when treatment succeeds. Olsder, Martagan, and Tang formulate these choices as a sequential game between the government, a manufacturer, and patients in their SSRN working paper, §§3–4. This mission concerns their results for the case in which the manufacturer sets the price.

The paper reports that a manufacturer subsidy alone is optimal under either payment scheme and that the relative prices under the two schemes change with the government budget. The price comparison is useful because a payment contract intended to protect patients can change the price set by the manufacturer. The mission uses the working paper dated 2019-11-13. Its page and equation numbers are those of that version, which precedes the published article.

Setting

The government first chooses two subsidy shares: α∈[0,1)\alpha\in[0,1)α∈[0,1) covers the fraction α\alphaα of research cost and β∈[0,1)\beta\in[0,1)β∈[0,1) covers the fraction β\betaβ of the unit price paid on a patient's behalf. The manufacturer then chooses a nonnegative unit price ppp and a positive target efficacy eee. Research cost is ke2ke^2ke2, with k>0k>0k>0, so the manufacturer's effective cost is (1−α)ke2(1-\alpha)ke^2(1−α)ke2. The government has a budget B>0B>0B>0. The market size is one, and patient valuations are uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; these conventions are given in §3.1–§3.2.

In Setting (1A) the manufacturer receives the price for every sale. Its profit is πA=p(1−(1−β)p/e)−(1−α)ke2\pi_A=p(1-(1-\beta)p/e)-(1-\alpha)ke^2πA​=p(1−(1−β)p/e)−(1−α)ke2. At price and efficacy (p,e)(p,e)(p,e), patient welfare is WA=(e−(1−β)p)2/(2e)W_A=(e-(1-\beta)p)^2/(2e)WA​=(e−(1−β)p)2/(2e), while government spending is MA=αke2+βp(1−(1−β)p/e)M_A=\alpha ke^2+\beta p(1-(1-\beta)p/e)MA​=αke2+βp(1−(1−β)p/e). These are the paper's equations (2), (3), and (5). In Setting (1B) payment occurs only if treatment succeeds. The corresponding expressions are πB=ep(1−(1−β)p)−(1−α)ke2\pi_B=ep(1-(1-\beta)p)-(1-\alpha)ke^2πB​=ep(1−(1−β)p)−(1−α)ke2, WB=e(1−(1−β)p)2/2W_B=e(1-(1-\beta)p)^2/2WB​=e(1−(1−β)p)2/2, and MB=αke2+eβp(1−(1−β)p)M_B=\alpha ke^2+e\beta p(1-(1-\beta)p)MB​=αke2+eβp(1−(1−β)p), from equations (7), (8), and (10) of the same source.

For each scheme, a manufacturer best response is a pair (p,e)(p,e)(p,e) maximizing that scheme's profit over all p≥0p\ge0p≥0, e>0e>0e>0. A government policy is optimal when it has a best response at which spending does not exceed BBB, and its patient welfare is at least the welfare of every feasible policy evaluated at every manufacturer best response. This expresses the government's leader role and the manufacturer's follower role in the game's sequence of events, rather than assigning the closed forms of §§4.1–4.2 to either player by definition.

Formalization targets

Government policy under each payment scheme

Proposition 1 of the working paper, p. 12, gives the unique optimal policy under sales-based payment. The paragraph after (16) on p. 13 says the same policy is optimal under outcome-based payment:

(α,β)=(α∗,0),α∗=1+128Bk−256Bk+1128Bk.(\alpha,\beta)=(\alpha^*,0),\qquad \alpha^*=\frac{1+128Bk-\sqrt{256Bk+1}}{128Bk}.(α,β)=(α∗,0),α∗=128Bk1+128Bk−256Bk+1​​.

The budget binds at this policy. In both settings the optimal patient welfare and the manufacturer's profit equal 2B/(256Bk+1−1)2B/(\sqrt{256Bk+1}-1)2B/(256Bk+1​−1). These policy claims, the two best-response formulas, and the two welfare and spending reductions form the six milestones.

Price comparison

Corollary 1 on p. 13 compares the manufacturer's optimal price in the two payment schemes. If pAp_ApA​ and pBp_BpB​ denote prices at optimal policies and best responses, the goal is the three-way statement

B<k−18⇒pA<pB,B=k−18⇒pA=pB,B>k−18⇒pA>pB.B<k-\tfrac18\Rightarrow p_A<p_B,\qquad B=k-\tfrac18\Rightarrow p_A=p_B,\qquad B>k-\tfrac18\Rightarrow p_A>p_B.B<k−81​⇒pA​<pB​,B=k−81​⇒pA​=pB​,B>k−81​⇒pA​>pB​.

The printed second clause uses B≥k−1/8B\ge k-1/8B≥k−1/8 and says “higher”; equality of the two prices at the threshold is a boundary slip. The formal target records equality separately and preserves the strict high-budget comparison.

Significance

The policy result identifies which subsidy reaches patients most effectively within this model: when the manufacturer sets the price, the government uses its entire budget on the manufacturer's development cost, regardless of whether payment is per sale or contingent on treatment success. The price result adds a distinct comparison. Equal optimal subsidies and equal patient welfare do not imply equal prices; the sign of the price difference depends on BBB relative to k−1/8k-1/8k−1/8. This distinction appears explicitly in the paper's discussion following Corollary 1, pp. 13–14.

The working paper proves these results mathematically. The mission's remaining work is to give machine-checked proofs for the game definitions, both best-response results, both welfare and spending reductions, the unique optimum, and the final price comparison. It does not assert that those proofs have already been formalized. The definitions of attained best response and government optimality can also support later analyses of different subsidy or payment rules.

Difficulty

The government cannot compare the two schemes by holding the manufacturer's choices fixed. The manufacturer optimizes both price and efficacy after observing the subsidy policy, and the two profit functions have different price terms. Even after determining each manufacturer's response, identical formulas for government welfare and spending do not themselves establish an attained and unique optimum on the continuous half-open policy region [0,1)2[0,1)^2[0,1)2. The price comparison then concerns the actual best-response prices at that optimum, including the threshold where the two prices coincide. These dependencies explain why the reduced expressions alone cannot serve as the definition of the game.

Formalization scope

Lean represents all parameters, policies, prices, efficacies, profit, welfare, and spending in R\mathbb RR. The policy predicate requires α,β∈[0,1)\alpha,\beta\in[0,1)α,β∈[0,1). Every theorem assumes k>0k>0k>0; the budget results also assume B>0B>0B>0. These positivity conditions make the paper's denominators meaningful and state its implicit economic regime. Prices chosen by the manufacturer satisfy p≥0p\ge0p≥0. Its efficacy choice satisfies e>0e>0e>0 and has no imposed upper bound of one: equations (3) and (8) maximize over eee, and in the high-budget part of Corollary 1 their optimizer can exceed one. This is a convention of the paper's algebraic model, even though efficacy is introduced as a probability.

The demand expressions used in the paper's equations are left unclipped. At the stated best responses, they lie in the relevant nonnegative range. Best responses are represented as sets of all maximizers, and the goal compares every response at every optimal policy. Government optimality requires a feasible best response and comparison with every feasible competing policy and response, so neither existence nor uniqueness is obtained from an empty set. In particular, the reduced welfare and budget formulas (13) and (16) are milestone conclusions, not definitions of government choice. Reusable contributions include real optimization arguments for joint price and efficacy maximization and for attained welfare maxima over subsidy policies.

Selected references

  • W. Olsder, T. Martagan, and C. S. Tang, Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Optimal Subsidies, Pricing, and Payment, SSRN working paper 3481150, version of 2019-11-13, §§3–4, pp. 8–14. SSRN.
  • W. Olsder, T. Martagan, and C. S. Tang, Improving Access to Rare Disease Treatments: Subsidy, Pricing, and Payment Schemes, Management Science, 2023. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4634.
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The Risk of Expected Utility Under Parameter Uncertainty II: The Robust Shrinkage Intensity Lies Between the Variance-Minimizing and Mean-Maximizing Intensities and Tends to OneResearch Paper

Why parameter uncertainty changes portfolio choice

An investor selecting a portfolio from estimated returns faces two distinct outcomes: the average utility the chosen rule delivers across possible historical samples, and the variation of that utility from one sample to another. A portfolio rule can perform well on average while being sensitive to the particular observations used to estimate it. Lassance, Martín-Utrera, and Simaan quantify this sensitivity for portfolios estimated from Gaussian returns and propose a mean-risk criterion that penalizes the standard deviation of out-of-sample utility (OOSU). This mission concerns the shrinkage intensity that maximizes that criterion. Its source is the authors' SSRN manuscript dated August 18, 2023, including the Internet Appendix; page labels IA1–IA45 refer to that appendix.

The paper's Proposition 1 provides an exact finite-sample variance for OOSU, and Proposition IA.1 restates a closed-form OOSU mean from Kan, Wang, and Zhou. Those formulas make it possible to compare choices that maximize average utility, minimize utility variance, or balance the two. Proposition 4 characterizes the balancing choice without fixing the risk weight to a particular numerical calibration. Lassance, Martín-Utrera, and Simaan, §§4–5 and Internet Appendix IA.1.

The market and the shrinkage rule

There are NNN risky stocks. Their excess-return vector has population mean μ\muμ and positive-definite covariance matrix Σ\SigmaΣ. An investor with risk-aversion coefficient γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 holds weights www summing to one and evaluates their mean-variance utility as U(w)=w⊤μ−(γ/2)w⊤ΣwU(w)=w^\top\mu-(\gamma/2)w^\top\Sigma wU(w)=w⊤μ−(γ/2)w⊤Σw. The population global-minimum-variance portfolio has mean μg\mu_gμg​ and variance σg2>0\sigma_g^2>0σg2​>0. The zero-cost portfolio that accounts for mean-return opportunities has return variance ψ2≥0\psi^2\geq0ψ2≥0. These constants are defined from μ\muμ and Σ\SigmaΣ in equations (5)–(7). Source, §3.1.

From TTT independent Gaussian observations, the investor estimates the mean and covariance, using a 1/T1/T1/T factor in the sample covariance. The sample mean-variance portfolio and sample global-minimum-variance portfolio are mixed using an intensity κ∈[0,1]\kappa\in[0,1]κ∈[0,1]: κ=0\kappa=0κ=0 selects the latter and κ=1\kappa=1κ=1 the former. Because the data are random, this portfolio's OOSU is random. Let ET(κ)E_T(\kappa)ET​(κ) and VT(κ)V_T(\kappa)VT​(κ) denote its OOSU mean and variance. In this mission they are the exact analytic expressions in (IA1)–(IA2) and (13)–(19), respectively. The formulas depend on N,T,γ,μg,σg2,ψ2N,T,\gamma,\mu_g,\sigma_g^2,\psi^2N,T,γ,μg​,σg2​,ψ2, and κ\kappaκ; the variance formula is a fourth-degree polynomial in κ\kappaκ. Source, §§3.2–4.1 and Appendix IA.1.

For a fixed robustness weight λ≥0\lambda\geq0λ≥0, the mean-risk OOSU is

RT(κ)=ET(κ)−λVT(κ).R_T(\kappa)=E_T(\kappa)-\lambda\sqrt{V_T(\kappa)}.RT​(κ)=ET​(κ)−λVT​(κ)​.

The robust intensity κR\kappa_RκR​ maximizes RTR_TRT​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A variance-minimizing intensity is denoted κV\kappa_VκV​, while κE(T)\kappa_E(T)κE​(T) maximizes ETE_TET​ and has the explicit form (IA3). The sample-size condition throughout finite-sample claims is N≥2N\geq2N≥2 and T>N+7T>N+7T>N+7. Source, Assumption 1 and equations (20)–(21).

Formalization targets

The main target is Proposition 4. For every finite sample size allowed by Assumption 1, maximizers of RTR_TRT​ and minimizers of VTV_TVT​ exist, and every such pair obeys

κV≤κR≤κE(T).\kappa_V\leq\kappa_R\leq\kappa_E(T).κV​≤κR​≤κE​(T).

When ψ2>0\psi^2>0ψ2>0, every sequence of robust maximizers for increasing TTT also obeys

lim⁡T→∞κR(T)=1.\lim_{T\to\infty}\kappa_R(T)=1.T→∞lim​κR​(T)=1.

The ordered milestones establish that κE(T)\kappa_E(T)κE​(T) is the OOSU mean maximizer and lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; that it tends to one for ψ2>0\psi^2>0ψ2>0; that OOSU variance decreases with sample size and tends to zero for each fixed admissible κ\kappaκ; and that variance is nondecreasing as κ\kappaκ rises from κE(T)\kappa_E(T)κE​(T) to one. The last milestone isolates the shrinkage-intensity clause of Proposition 2(2). Source, Proposition IA.1, Proposition 2, and Proposition 4.

What the result supplies

The inequality puts the risk-balanced choice on a single interval with two interpretable endpoints. A user of the model can compare robust allocations with the mean-optimal and variance-optimal portfolios without solving an unconstrained optimization problem over all intensities. The asymptotic statement says that, for fixed market parameters and positive ψ2\psi^2ψ2, any robust choice approaches the sample mean-variance endpoint as the historical sample grows. The theorem itself is proved in the manuscript; this mission asks for machine-checked statements and proofs of that known result, not for a new mathematical claim. Source, §5.2 and proof of Proposition 4, pp. IA44–IA45.

Formalizing the closed-form analysis also produces reusable tools for optimizing a polynomial mean and a polynomial variance under a square-root risk penalty on a compact interval. The supporting items separate the paper's exact formulas from the statements about their extrema and limits. The probabilistic derivation of the variance is the target of the separate Proposition 1 mission; the closed-form identities here let this mission focus on the optimizer comparison. No proof of this mission's goal is claimed to be machine checked yet.

The central difficulty

The mean has a transparent quadratic maximum, but the variance is a fourth-degree expression whose coefficients are rational functions of T,N,γ,σg2,T,N,\gamma,\sigma_g^2,T,N,γ,σg2​, and ψ2\psi^2ψ2. A direct comparison of objective values at arbitrary intensities does not expose the ordering of all possible extrema. Moreover, the risk penalty uses VT\sqrt{V_T}VT​​, so its behavior cannot be inferred from the mean and variance formulas by treating the penalty as VTV_TVT​ itself. The sample-size limit concerns every sequence of optimizers, while the variance milestone gives a pointwise limit for each fixed κ\kappaκ; relating the two requires control over the entire admissible interval. Source, Proposition 1 and proof of Proposition 4.

Formalization scope

Lean stores NNN and TTT as natural numbers and casts them to real numbers before every subtraction in the rational formulas. A fixed parameter structure holds N,γ,σg2,ψ2,μg,N,\gamma,\sigma_g^2,\psi^2,\mu_g,N,γ,σg2​,ψ2,μg​, and λ\lambdaλ; TTT remains an argument so that limits as T→∞T\to\inftyT→∞ keep the other parameters fixed. The standing predicate requires N≥2N\geq2N≥2, γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, σg2>0\sigma_g^2>0σg2​>0, ψ2≥0\psi^2\geq0ψ2≥0, and λ≥0\lambda\geq0λ≥0. Individual finite-sample statements require T>N+7T>N+7T>N+7. The positivity and nonnegativity of the population variances come from positive definiteness of Σ\SigmaΣ; the Gaussian sampling model is what identifies the closed forms as actual OOSU moments in Proposition 1 and Proposition IA.1.

The variance function is the exact sum of (14) and the polynomial (15) with coefficients (16)–(19), including the displayed polynomial C(T,N,ψ2)C(T,N,\psi^2)C(T,N,ψ2). The mean function is (IA1)–(IA2); κE(T)\kappa_E(T)κE​(T) is (IA3); and the robustness function uses Real.sqrt of the variance, exactly as (20) requires. Extrema are taken on Set.Icc 0 1, with explicit existence and quantification over every optimizer. The goal does not choose a convenient maximizer or rely on a potentially empty optimizer set. The added ψ2>0\psi^2>0ψ2>0 condition appears only in the two limit statements, since at ψ2=0\psi^2=0ψ2=0 the printed limits fail. The manuscript's claim that the underlying estimated portfolio is consistent is outside this closed-form model, which does not contain that random portfolio.

The complete development needs real polynomial and rational inequalities, continuity and extrema on compact intervals, and limits of the coefficient functions. These tools can serve other mean-risk optimization problems. Contributions that close the four cited milestones or supply reusable analytic lemmas for them fit this mission. The paper's monotonicity claim in the stock count NNN is excluded because it is false for some admissible parameters; its variance and zero-cost-variance clauses are outside the focused milestone list. Source, Proposition 2(2) and proof, pp. 16 and IA39–IA44.

Selected references

  • N. Lassance, A. Martín-Utrera, and M. Simaan, The Risk of Expected Utility under Parameter Uncertainty, authors' SSRN manuscript dated August 18, 2023, later published in Management Science (2024). SSRN 3855546; DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2023.00178.
  • R. Kan, X. Wang, and G. Zhou, Optimal Portfolio Choice with Estimation Risk: No Risk-Free Asset Case, Management Science 68(3), 2047–2068 (2022). DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2021.3989.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization I: Engagement Beats Utility Only Through Higher Moreishness, or Higher Span with Lower ValueResearch Paper

Why engagement is not utility

Online platforms rank content by what they can measure: clicks, watch time, session length. The implicit justification is revealed preference: if users stay longer, they must like what they see. Kleinberg, Mullainathan and Raghavan (arXiv:2202.11776v3, Management Science 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.03683) question this justification with a model of a user whose preferences are internally inconsistent, in the tradition of dual-process models of choice. Within the model, an engagement-maximizing platform can serve content that lowers the user's welfare, and the paper asks exactly when this happens. This mission formalizes its first characterization result, Theorem 4.1 (p. 16).

The model

A user consumes a stream of items t=0,1,2,…t=0,1,2,\dotst=0,1,2,… and is a composite of two agents (§2.1, pp. 5–8).

  • System 2 is forward-looking. Each consumed item gives it a random value with mean vˉ\bar vvˉ, while leaving the platform gives an outside option WWW per step. After each item, system 2 still wants to continue with probability qqq, and otherwise it is "done" for the rest of the session.
  • System 1 is impulsive. With probability ppp it is hooked by the current item and consumes the next one without consulting system 2.

A content distribution is the triple ω=(p,q,vˉ)\omega=(p,q,\bar v)ω=(p,q,vˉ), read as moreishness ppp, span qqq and value vˉ\bar vvˉ. The parameter space is (p. 15)

Ω=[0,1)×[0,1)×R+.\Omega=[0,1)\times[0,1)\times\mathbb R_+ .Ω=[0,1)×[0,1)×R+​.

The content a platform can offer forms a content manifold M⊆Ω\mathcal M\subseteq\OmegaM⊆Ω.

Summing system 2's utility over the two phases of a session (before and after system 2 is done) gives, when the user participates,

gS(ω)=vˉ−W1−q−pW1−p,gT(ω)=11−q+p1−pg_S(\omega)=\frac{\bar v-W}{1-q}-\frac{pW}{1-p},\qquad g_T(\omega)=\frac{1}{1-q}+\frac{p}{1-p}gS​(ω)=1−qvˉ−W​−1−ppW​,gT​(ω)=1−q1​+1−pp​

(p. 16). Here gSg_SgS​ is system 2's expected utility E[S]=max⁡(gS,0)\mathbb E[S]=\max(g_S,0)E[S]=max(gS​,0) (equation (1), p. 7) and gTg_TgT​ is the expected session length E[T]\mathbb E[T]E[T] (equation (2), p. 8). The user stays away when gS(ω)<0g_S(\omega)<0gS​(ω)<0, and then T=0T=0T=0.

Write ωS=(pS,qS,vˉS)\omega_S=(p_S,q_S,\bar v_S)ωS​=(pS​,qS​,vˉS​) and ωT=(pT,qT,vˉT)\omega_T=(p_T,q_T,\bar v_T)ωT​=(pT​,qT​,vˉT​) for the utility and engagement maximizers (p. 16):

ωS∈arg⁡max⁡ω∈MgS(ω)(3),ωT∈arg⁡max⁡ω∈M, gS(ω)≥0gT(ω)(4).\omega_S\in\arg\max_{\omega\in\mathcal M} g_S(\omega)\quad(3),\qquad \omega_T\in\arg\max_{\omega\in\mathcal M,\ g_S(\omega)\ge0} g_T(\omega)\quad(4).ωS​∈argω∈Mmax​gS​(ω)(3),ωT​∈argω∈M, gS​(ω)≥0max​gT​(ω)(4).

The platform observes only engagement, so it serves ωT\omega_TωT​, and only among content the user is willing to consume. The paper assumes that M\mathcal MM contains at least one point with gS>0g_S>0gS​>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 16)

Suppose ωS≠ωT\omega_S\neq\omega_TωS​=ωT​ and the disagreement is strict, gS(ωS)>gS(ωT)g_S(\omega_S)>g_S(\omega_T)gS​(ωS​)>gS​(ωT​) and gT(ωT)>gT(ωS)g_T(\omega_T)>g_T(\omega_S)gT​(ωT​)>gT​(ωS​). Then

pT>pSor(qT>qS  and  vˉT<vˉS).p_T>p_S\qquad\text{or}\qquad\bigl(q_T>q_S\ \text{ and }\ \bar v_T<\bar v_S\bigr).pT​>pS​or(qT​>qS​  and  vˉT​<vˉS​).

Milestones (the two steps of the printed proof)

  1. Proof of Theorem 4.1, p. 16: for ωS,ωT∈Ω\omega_S,\omega_T\in\OmegaωS​,ωT​∈Ω, if pT≤pSp_T\le p_SpT​≤pS​ and gT(ωT)>gT(ωS)g_T(\omega_T)>g_T(\omega_S)gT​(ωT​)>gT​(ωS​), then qT>qSq_T>q_SqT​>qS​.
  2. Proof of Theorem 4.1, p. 17: for ωS,ωT∈Ω\omega_S,\omega_T\in\OmegaωS​,ωT​∈Ω and W>0W>0W>0, if pT≤pSp_T\le p_SpT​≤pS​, qT>qSq_T>q_SqT​>qS​, gS(ωS)>gS(ωT)g_S(\omega_S)>g_S(\omega_T)gS​(ωS​)>gS​(ωT​) and gS(ωT)≥0g_S(\omega_T)\ge0gS​(ωT​)≥0, then vˉT<vˉS\bar v_T<\bar v_SvˉT​<vˉS​.

A supporting item, not a milestone: for ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omegaω∈Ω and W>0W>0W>0, gS(ω)≥0g_S(\omega)\ge0gS​(ω)≥0 implies vˉ≥W\bar v\ge Wvˉ≥W.

Significance

The theorem names the only two ways an engagement maximizer can do worse for the user than a utility maximizer. Either the content is more habit-forming (it raises system 1's grip), or it keeps system 2 interested for longer while delivering less per item, as when a long series of instructional videos replaces a short one. A platform that wants to diagnose misalignment therefore needs to look at moreishness and at the span–value trade-off, and at nothing else. The companion result of the paper (Theorem 4.2, a separate mission) turns this around: when moreishness is small and value nearly constant across M\mathcal MM, engagement maximization is near-optimal.

The result is proved in the paper by a few lines of algebra. No machine-checked version of it was found on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. Formalizing it pins down what the printed proof leaves implicit: the step from vˉT−W1−qT\frac{\bar v_T-W}{1-q_T}1−qT​vˉT​−W​ to vˉT−W1−qS\frac{\bar v_T-W}{1-q_S}1−qS​vˉT​−W​ on p. 17 is valid only because vˉT≥W\bar v_T\ge WvˉT​≥W, which follows from the participation constraint of (4). The mission also provides a reusable encoding of the paper's model (Ω, gSg_SgS​, gTg_TgT​, (3), (4)).

Difficulty

The mathematics is elementary. What makes the statement delicate is its hypotheses. If the participation constraint gS(ωT)≥0g_S(\omega_T)\ge0gS​(ωT​)≥0 is dropped from (4) together with the standing assumption that M\mathcal MM contains a point with gS>0g_S>0gS​>0, the theorem is false. With W=1W=1W=1 and M={(0,0,12),(0,12,12)}\mathcal M=\{(0,0,\tfrac12),(0,\tfrac12,\tfrac12)\}M={(0,0,21​),(0,21​,21​)}, the first point maximizes gSg_SgS​ and the second maximizes gTg_TgT​, the disagreement is strict, yet pT=pSp_T=p_SpT​=pS​ and vˉT=vˉS\bar v_T=\bar v_SvˉT​=vˉS​. The obvious reading of the second step, "a larger qqq shrinks the denominator", fails when vˉT<W\bar v_T<WvˉT​<W, because the numerator is then negative.

Formalization scope

  • A content distribution is a structure Params with three real fields p, q, v (for vˉ\bar vvˉ). Membership in Ω\OmegaΩ is the predicate InOmega: 0≤p<10\le p<10≤p<1, 0≤q<10\le q<10≤q<1, 0≤vˉ0\le\bar v0≤vˉ. Every theorem requires it of the points it uses, because Lean's division gives x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 and gSg_SgS​, gTg_TgT​ would take junk values at p=1p=1p=1 or q=1q=1q=1.
  • The outside option WWW is a real parameter with the added hypothesis W>0W>0W>0. The paper sets W=1W=1W=1 "without loss of generality" (p. 5) but keeps WWW in its formulas, and the proof uses W>0W>0W>0.
  • (3) and (4) are the predicates IsUtilityMaximizer and IsEngagementMaximizer, built from Mathlib's IsMaxOn. ωS\omega_SωS​ maximizes over all of M\mathcal MM; ωT\omega_TωT​ lies in M\mathcal MM, satisfies gS(ωT)≥0g_S(\omega_T)\ge0gS​(ωT​)≥0, and maximizes gTg_TgT​ over {ω∈M:gS(ω)≥0}\{\omega\in\mathcal M:g_S(\omega)\ge0\}{ω∈M:gS​(ω)≥0}. The theorem holds for every pair of maximizers, which is stronger than the paper's "ties broken consistently" and needs no tie-breaking rule.
  • The paper's closedness of M\mathcal MM only guarantees that the maximizers exist. Since the theorem assumes them, closedness is not required.
  • The standing assumption "M\mathcal MM contains at least one point with strictly positive E[S]\mathbb E[S]E[S]" is kept as a hypothesis, as printed, although the proof does not need it once gS(ωT)≥0g_S(\omega_T)\ge0gS​(ωT​)≥0 is part of (4).
  • "One of the following conditions must hold" is an inclusive or.
  • A trivializing formalization would drop the participation constraint from (4) (the statement is then false), or replace (4) by maximization over a set that may be empty; both are ruled out by IsEngagementMaximizer, which requires ωT\omega_TωT​ itself to be feasible.
  • No library beyond Mathlib's real arithmetic is needed. Proofs of the milestones and the goal are welcome; the definitions are shared in spirit with mission II of this series, which keeps its own copy.

Selected references

  • J. Kleinberg, S. Mullainathan, M. Raghavan, The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization, arXiv:2202.11776v3, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11776
  • Same paper, Management Science, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03683
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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Infinite-Dimensional Fisher Markets and Tractable Fair Division 2: For Linear Valuations on [0,1] the Feasible Utility Set Is a Projection of Linear and Parabolic ConstraintsResearch Paper

Motivation

A Fisher market divides a supply of goods among buyers with different values and budgets. In many fair division models, the goods form a continuum: pieces of time, land, or a divisible resource can be allocated in arbitrarily small amounts. A direct description of all possible buyer utilities then appears to require one allocation function for every buyer. Gao and Kroer show that when values vary linearly along an interval, the same utility set has a finite description using linear constraints and a parabolic cone. This makes the utility possibilities visible to convex optimization methods even though the underlying allocation space is infinite dimensional. Gao and Kroer, §§2 and 4.

The result is a characterization of a set, rather than a claim about one selected market equilibrium. It includes every feasible utility vector, including vectors below the Pareto frontier and cases in which adjacent buyers have identical valuations. The article proves the characterization as Theorem 4 and extends it to arbitrary subintervals and piecewise linear valuations in Theorems 5 and 6. Gao and Kroer, Theorems 4–6.

Setting

There are nnn buyers and one unit interval of items, Θ=[0,1]\Theta=[0,1]Θ=[0,1], with Lebesgue measure. Buyer iii values item θ\thetaθ at vi(θ)=ciθ+div_i(\theta)=c_i\theta+d_ivi​(θ)=ci​θ+di​. An allocation assigns a nonnegative, essentially bounded share xi(θ)x_i(\theta)xi​(θ) to each buyer, with ∑ixi(θ)≤1\sum_i x_i(\theta)\le 1∑i​xi​(θ)≤1 almost everywhere. Its utility vector has coordinates ui=∫01vi(θ)xi(θ) dθu_i=\int_0^1v_i(\theta)x_i(\theta)\,d\thetaui​=∫01​vi​(θ)xi​(θ)dθ. The feasible utility set U(v,[0,1])U(v,[0,1])U(v,[0,1]) contains all vectors obtained this way, including utilities from allocations that leave some supply unused. Gao and Kroer, (1), p. 8.

The goal assumes normalized valuations, ci/2+di=1c_i/2+d_i=1ci​/2+di​=1, and intercepts 2≥d1≥⋯≥dn≥02\ge d_1\ge\cdots\ge d_n\ge02≥d1​≥⋯≥dn​≥0. These bounds ensure that each valuation is nonnegative on the item interval. The ordering can contain ties. For each adjacent pair of buyers, the result introduces four real auxiliary variables (zi,wi,si,ti)(z_i,w_i,s_i,t_i)(zi​,wi​,si​,ti​). The pair (si,ti)(s_i,t_i)(si​,ti​) lies in the parabolic cone C={(s,t):s2≤t}\mathcal C=\{(s,t):s^2\le t\}C={(s,t):s2≤t}, and a 2×22\times22×2 matrix GiG_iGi​ maps it to (zi,wi)(z_i,w_i)(zi​,wi​). Gao and Kroer, Theorem 4, pp. 15–16.

For the supporting welfare statement, the item space is instead a compact subset of Euclidean space. A buyer's valuation is integrable and nonnegative, prices are integrable and nonnegative, and a market equilibrium gives each buyer a utility maximizing bundle within budget while clearing all positively priced supply. A Pareto optimal allocation admits no feasible allocation that weakly improves every buyer and strictly improves one. These notions are used in Lemma 6 and the path to the interval result. Gao and Kroer, §§2 and 4.1.

Formalization targets

The main target is the full equivalence of Theorem 4:

u∈U(v,[0,1])⟺u≥0 and there exist z,w,s,t satisfying Theorem 4’s linear and parabolic constraints.u\in U(v,[0,1])\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad u\ge0\text{ and there exist }z,w,s,t\text{ satisfying Theorem 4's linear and parabolic constraints.}u∈U(v,[0,1])⟺u≥0 and there exist z,w,s,t satisfying Theorem 4’s linear and parabolic constraints.

The constraints include u1≤z1u_1\le z_1u1​≤z1​, ui≤zi+wi−1u_i\le z_i+w_{i-1}ui​≤zi​+wi−1​ for interior buyers, un≤1+wn−1u_n\le1+w_{n-1}un​≤1+wn−1​, Gi(si,ti)=(zi,wi)G_i(s_i,t_i)=(z_i,w_i)Gi​(si​,ti​)=(zi​,wi​), si2≤tis_i^2\le t_isi2​≤ti​, 0≤zi≤10\le z_i\le10≤zi​≤1, −1≤wi≤0-1\le w_i\le0−1≤wi​≤0, and zi+wi≥0z_i+w_i\ge0zi​+wi​≥0 for each adjacent pair. The representation quantifies over real auxiliary variables; it does not assume a market equilibrium or a partition into intervals. Gao and Kroer, Theorem 4, pp. 15–16.

The milestones are the paper's continuum second welfare theorem (Lemma 6), the ordered interval structure of equilibrium under Assumption 1 (Lemma 5), the ordered interval domination of feasible utilities (Lemma 7), the breakpoint description in the proof of Theorem 4, and the two buyer region identity in that proof. Theorem 5 is a companion target: it identifies utilities on [l,h][l,h][l,h] with scaled, permuted utilities for normalized valuations on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Gao and Kroer, pp. 14–19 and a10–a13.

Significance

Theorem 4 turns an infinite dimensional feasibility question into membership in a projection of a finite convex set. This lets the interval utility set enter a conic optimization model without choosing a discretization of the item space. Theorem 5 transfers that description to other intervals, and the paper uses these results for piecewise linear fair division. Gao and Kroer, §§4.2–4.3.

The mathematical results are proved in the article. The formalization work here records the precise objects and open Lean theorem statements; machine checked proofs of these new statements remain to be supplied. The generic allocation, demand, equilibrium, and feasible utility definitions can also support later results about continuum Fisher markets and Eisenberg–Gale optimality.

Difficulty

A feasible utility vector may come from a fractional allocation that varies arbitrarily along the interval. The geometric statement, however, describes it with only one adjacent pair of auxiliary variables per buyer boundary. The link must preserve the entire feasible set, including vectors below the Pareto frontier and valuations with equal intercepts. A characterization proved only for equilibrium utilities, or only for distinct valuations, would miss those vectors. Lemma 6 also works over general compact Euclidean item spaces, so its assertion cannot be reduced to the interval case. Gao and Kroer, Lemmas 5–7 and Theorem 4.

Formalization scope

Lean represents allocations and valuations as real functions modulo almost everywhere equality in the statements, rather than as quotient LpL^pLp elements. Bundles must belong to L∞L^\inftyL∞ and prices and valuations to L1L^1L1; their integral pairings are then meaningful. The feasible utility set is defined from allocations and Lebesgue measure restricted to the relevant interval. Buyers are indexed from zero in Lean and from one in the paper. Natural number indices for the auxiliary sequences follow the same shift. The goal requires n≥2n\ge2n≥2 because its first and last adjacent pair constraints do not exist for smaller nnn; Lemmas 5 and 7 require n≥1n\ge1n≥1 for their endpoint lists.

The goal includes ties among intercepts. The printed further claim that all feasible auxiliary si,tis_i,t_isi​,ti​ lie in [0,1][0,1][0,1] fails with a tie, so its companion statement assumes the relevant adjacent intercepts are strictly ordered. Theorem 5 reads the valuation as ciθ+dic_i\theta+d_ici​θ+di​: that agrees with its normalization and interval integral, while the displayed ciθ/2+dic_i\theta/2+d_ici​θ/2+di​ on p. 18 is inconsistent with those formulas. These readings are recorded with concrete checks in the moderation notes. Gao and Kroer, Theorems 4–5, pp. 16 and 18.

A complete proof will need reusable measure theoretic facts about allocations, interval integrals of linear functions, Pareto optimal utilities, and the image of the parabolic cone under a linear map. Contributions to those foundations and to the listed theorem statements are within scope. The target cannot be met by assuming a breakpoint partition or an equilibrium for the utility vector: it must characterize U(v,[0,1])U(v,[0,1])U(v,[0,1]) directly.

Selected references

  • Yuan Gao and Christian Kroer, Infinite-Dimensional Fisher Markets and Tractable Fair Division, Operations Research, 2023. arXiv:2010.03025v5.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Tokenomics: When Tokens Beat Equity III: The Break-Even Token Pre-Sale Strictly Increases in the Set-Up Cost and the Marginal Cost and Strictly Decreases in Expected DemandResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms can raise money before production by selling claims on future output. In the model of Malinova and Park, these claims are tokens: a buyer prepays for a quantity of the good, and the final contract also gives token holders a share of tokens issued after demand becomes known. The firm must choose how many tokens to pre-sell. A larger pre-sale brings in more finance but changes the allocation of later sales revenue. The paper identifies contract terms that preserve the firm's monopoly output choice and determines the pre-sale quantity by investors' break-even condition (Proposition 3, p. 24). Proposition 4 asks how that quantity responds when financing need, production cost, or expected demand changes. These comparative statics make the contract's financing response explicit rather than leaving the break-even equation as an isolated root.

Setting

An entrepreneur pays a set-up cost C0>0C_0>0C0​>0 to launch production and then incurs a marginal cost c>0c>0c>0 per unit. After financing, a demand intercept xxx is drawn uniformly from (0,θ)(0,\theta)(0,θ), where c<θc<\thetac<θ. At output qqq, the inverse demand price is x−qx-qx−q. Without financing distortions, the monopoly quantity is qm(x)=max⁡{(x−c)/2,0}q^m(x)=\max\{(x-c)/2,0\}qm(x)=max{(x−c)/2,0} and its profit is πm(x)=max⁡{x−c,0}2/4\pi^m(x)=\max\{x-c,0\}^2/4πm(x)=max{x−c,0}2/4. For a realized payoff g(x)g(x)g(x), expectation means the average Eθ[g]=θ−1∫0θg(x) dxE_\theta[g]=\theta^{-1}\int_0^\theta g(x)\,dxEθ​[g]=θ−1∫0θ​g(x)dx. The venture's net present value is Eθ[πm]−C0E_\theta[\pi^m]-C_0Eθ​[πm]−C0​, equal in this domain to (θ−c)3/(12θ)−C0(\theta-c)^3/(12\theta)-C_0(θ−c)3/(12θ)−C0​ (equation (3), p. 14).

Under the optimal token contract of Proposition 3, investors buy ttt tokens at time zero, and token holders receive the fraction αt=t/(t+c)\alpha_t=t/(t+c)αt​=t/(t+c) of new tokens issued when output exceeds the pre-sale. A refund rule applies when output falls below the pre-sale. The resulting positive break-even pre-sale size is determined by equation (16):

cc+t23θ(θ−c2−t)3=(θ−c)312θ−C0.\frac{c}{c+t}\frac{2}{3\theta}\left(\frac{\theta-c}{2}-t\right)^3 =\frac{(\theta-c)^3}{12\theta}-C_0.c+tc​3θ2​(2θ−c​−t)3=12θ(θ−c)3​−C0​.

For a positive-NPV venture, this equation has one positive root, in (0,(θ−c)/2)(0,(\theta-c)/2)(0,(θ−c)/2) (Appendix A, pp. 40–41). The mission treats the root as a solution of the equation, so statements about the optimal quantity apply to every value satisfying it.

Formalization targets

The comparative-statics goal

Proposition 4, p. 25, asserts three strict directions. If t(c,C0,θ)t(c,C_0,\theta)t(c,C0​,θ) denotes the unique positive root of (16), then, while both endpoint ventures have positive NPV,

C0<C0′ ⟹ t(c,C0,θ)<t(c,C0′,θ),C_0<C_0'\ \Longrightarrow\ t(c,C_0,\theta)<t(c,C_0',\theta),C0​<C0′​ ⟹ t(c,C0​,θ)<t(c,C0′​,θ), c<c′ ⟹ t(c,C0,θ)<t(c′,C0,θ),c<c'\ \Longrightarrow\ t(c,C_0,\theta)<t(c',C_0,\theta),c<c′ ⟹ t(c,C0​,θ)<t(c′,C0​,θ), θ<θ′ ⟹ t(c,C0,θ′)<t(c,C0,θ).\theta<\theta'\ \Longrightarrow\ t(c,C_0,\theta')<t(c,C_0,\theta).θ<θ′ ⟹ t(c,C0​,θ′)<t(c,C0​,θ).

Thus a larger set-up cost or marginal cost requires more pre-sold tokens, while a higher demand level requires fewer. The Lean goal compares arbitrary positive roots directly. It places the NPV condition at the higher cost in the second comparison and at the lower demand level in the third; these are the restrictive endpoints. The first comparison places it at the higher set-up cost.

Source milestones

The milestone list follows the Appendix A proof: existence and uniqueness of the root of (41); the negative ttt derivative (42); the positive ccc derivative (45); the negative θ\thetaθ derivative (46); and the derivative in ttt of the expression in (46), equation (47). These are source claims, with their displayed constants retained. Equation (42) and equation (45) contain printing errors in the SSRN copy; the formal statements use the actual derivatives and the milestone quotes retain the printed text.

Significance

Proposition 3 establishes that the chosen token contract can finance a positive-NPV venture while keeping the efficient monopoly output. Proposition 4 then describes the contract's response to the model's three principal parameters. Its strict inequalities distinguish an actual response from a weak monotonicity claim that could allow the pre-sale to remain unchanged. The demand comparative static is economically specific: a higher θ\thetaθ raises the demand intercept on average, but the quantity of tokens needed to finance the same set-up cost falls.

The paper proves these results analytically. This mission seeks machine-checked proofs of the root comparison and its stated derivative milestones. A completed development would provide reusable results about parameter-dependent roots of rational functions, especially when the root is specified by a break-even condition rather than by an explicit formula. The current Lean files are compiled statements with proof placeholders; compilation does not establish the mathematical results.

Difficulty

Equation (16) is cubic in a quantity that also occurs in a denominator, so the root does not offer a convenient closed expression for direct comparison. The endpoint restrictions matter: the meaningful root lies strictly between zero and (θ−c)/2(\theta-c)/2(θ−c)/2, and derivatives that have the desired sign in that interval need not keep the same sign outside it. In particular, the ttt derivative in (42) reaches zero at the upper boundary. The demand derivative in (46) also vanishes at t=0t=0t=0, making its strict sign in the interior a separate claim. A literal transcription of two printed derivatives would give incorrect equalities even though their intended sign conclusions survive. The formal development therefore needs both careful domain control and the corrected expressions.

Formalization scope

The namespace TokenFinance.Statics represents all quantities as real functions. Uniform expectation is the interval integral divided by θ\thetaθ. Monopoly output and profit use max to encode zero production below cost. The common Setting definition file also records the equity and debt payoffs and the token contract's case split, following the series-wide model. The break-even condition is exactly the closed-form equation (16), while NPV remains the integral of realized monopoly profit minus C0C_0C0​. The goal assumes the paper's standing c>0c>0c>0, C0>0C_0>0C0​>0, c<θc<\thetac<θ, and positive NPV, written as C0<(θ−c)3/(12θ)C_0<(\theta-c)^3/(12\theta)C0​<(θ−c)3/(12θ) using equation (3). Derivative statements state their own regions and nonzero-denominator conditions. The token size is quantified over positive roots rather than chosen by an arbitrary selection function.

The root cannot be defined to have the claimed monotonicity, and the derivative signs cannot be inserted as hypotheses of the goal. The missing work includes real-variable derivative calculations, root existence and uniqueness on the economic interval, and the strict parameter comparisons. The secondary token market, redemption mechanics beyond the contract payoffs, bankruptcy costs, consumer welfare, and the paper's institutional discussion are outside this mission's scope.

Selected references

  • Katya Malinova and Andreas Park, Tokenomics: When Tokens Beat Equity, SSRN 3286825, version of June 1, 2023, pp. 14, 24–25, 40–42. SSRN preprint.
  • Katya Malinova and Andreas Park, Tokenomics: When Tokens Beat Equity, Management Science, 2023. DOI:10.1287/mnsc.2023.4882. The mission's equation and page references follow the SSRN version above.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Output-Oriented Agricultural Subsidy Design I: Under a Combined Subsidy, More Dispersed Farmer Productivity Gives More Dispersed Outputs and ProfitsResearch Paper

Why the distribution of subsidies matters

Agricultural subsidies can raise total crop supply while changing which farmers produce it. A payment tied to planted input gives a larger reward per unit of harvested output to a farmer who needs more input for that output. A payment tied to harvested output gives the same reward per unit of output to every farmer. These differences matter when a government cares about the distribution of production and income across farms as well as total supply. Fan et al. (2023) study these effects in a finite market where farmers choose quantities and compete through a common market price.

This mission isolates the paper's distribution result for a combined subsidy, which pays on both planted input and harvested output. It asks how a difference in the dispersion of farmers' input-to-output ratios between two otherwise identical markets affects their equilibrium output and profit. The result is Proposition 4 of the SSRN version. The paper proves it in Online Appendix A, p. 4. The result is mathematically stated and proved in the paper; the machine-checked formalization of its statement and proof is the work here.

Market and order

There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 farmers, indexed in the paper by j=1,…,Nj=1,\ldots,Nj=1,…,N. Farmer jjj must plant zjqjz_jq_jzj​qj​ units of input to harvest qjq_jqj​ units of output. Thus zj>0z_j>0zj​>0 is an input-to-output ratio; a smaller ratio means more output per unit of input. The ratios are listed in nondecreasing order. Planting costs cPc_PcP​ per unit of input, harvesting costs cHc_HcH​ per unit of output, and total harvested output is Q=∑jqjQ=\sum_jq_jQ=∑j​qj​. The market-clearing price is p=α−βQp=\alpha-\beta Qp=α−βQ, where α,β>0\alpha,\beta>0α,β>0.

Under a combined subsidy (sP,sH)(s_P,s_H)(sP​,sH​), farmer jjj receives zjsP+sHz_js_P+s_Hzj​sP​+sH​ per unit of output. The first part is payment for planted input and the second for harvested output. A farmer choosing qj≥0q_j\ge0qj​≥0 while the other farmers' outputs stay fixed has profit

πj(q,sP,sH)=(α−zj(cP−sP)−(cH−sH)−β∑iqi)qj.\pi_j(q,s_P,s_H)=\left(\alpha-z_j(c_P-s_P)-(c_H-s_H)-\beta\sum_iq_i\right)q_j.πj​(q,sP​,sH​)=(α−zj​(cP​−sP​)−(cH​−sH​)−βi∑​qi​)qj​.

An equilibrium is a nonnegative output vector at which no farmer gains by changing its own nonnegative output. Costs and subsidies are real-valued: the paper permits a subsidy larger than its associated cost and also permits a negative subsidy, or tax. The formulas in this mission concern equilibria at which every farmer produces a positive quantity.

To compare dispersion, let Tk(u)T_k(u)Tk​(u) be the sum of the kkk largest entries of a vector uuu. A vector uuu majorizes vvv, written u≥mvu\ge^m vu≥mv, when Tk(u)≥Tk(v)T_k(u)\ge T_k(v)Tk​(u)≥Tk​(v) for every k=1,…,Nk=1,\ldots,Nk=1,…,N and their total sums agree. The weak sub-majorization relation u≥wmvu\ge_{wm}vu≥wm​v keeps the top-sum inequalities and drops equal totals. With this direction, u≥mvu\ge^m vu≥mv says that uuu is more dispersed. These are the orders of Definition 1 in Fan et al..

Formalization targets

Active combined-subsidy equilibrium

The first milestone formalizes Proposition 3's active branch. Write zˉ=N−1∑jzj\bar z=N^{-1}\sum_jz_jzˉ=N−1∑j​zj​ and aˉ(sP,sH)=α−zˉ(cP−sP)−(cH−sH)\bar a(s_P,s_H)=\alpha-\bar z(c_P-s_P)-(c_H-s_H)aˉ(sP​,sH​)=α−zˉ(cP​−sP​)−(cH​−sH​). At an equilibrium with every farmer active, it states

qj=1β(aˉ(sP,sH)N+1−(zj−zˉ)(cP−sP)),πj=βqj2.q_j=\frac1\beta\left(\frac{\bar a(s_P,s_H)}{N+1}-(z_j-\bar z)(c_P-s_P)\right),\qquad \pi_j=\beta q_j^2.qj​=β1​(N+1aˉ(sP​,sH​)​−(zj​−zˉ)(cP​−sP​)),πj​=βqj2​.

The remaining milestones formalize the increment identities written in the proof of Corollary 1 and the two order properties invoked in the proof of Proposition 2: majorization under an affine map, and weak sub-majorization under an increasing convex map. These are the results used to interpret the change in each farmer's output and profit when a subsidy changes.

Proposition 4: productivity dispersion

Consider markets AAA and BBB with the same N,α,β,cP,cHN,\alpha,\beta,c_P,c_HN,α,β,cP​,cH​, but with ratio vectors zA≥mzBz_A\ge^m z_BzA​≥mzB​. Give them the same subsidy (sP,sH)(s_P,s_H)(sP​,sH​) and let δ>0\delta>0δ>0. For a vector of equilibrium outputs, ΔsPq\Delta_{s_P}qΔsP​​q is the difference between outputs at (sP+δ,sH)(s_P+\delta,s_H)(sP​+δ,sH​) and (sP,sH)(s_P,s_H)(sP​,sH​); ΔsHq\Delta_{s_H}qΔsH​​q is defined using (sP,sH+δ)(s_P,s_H+\delta)(sP​,sH​+δ). Profit increments use the corresponding profits at those equilibria. Proposition 4 asserts

qA≥mqB,ΔsPqA≥mΔsPqB,ΔsHqA=mΔsHqB,q_A\ge^m q_B,\quad \Delta_{s_P}q_A\ge^m\Delta_{s_P}q_B,\quad \Delta_{s_H}q_A=^m\Delta_{s_H}q_B,qA​≥mqB​,ΔsP​​qA​≥mΔsP​​qB​,ΔsH​​qA​=mΔsH​​qB​, πA≥wmπB,ΔsHπA≥mΔsHπB.\pi_A\ge_{wm}\pi_B,\quad \Delta_{s_H}\pi_A\ge^m\Delta_{s_H}\pi_B.πA​≥wm​πB​,ΔsH​​πA​≥mΔsH​​πB​.

The equality =m=^m=m means majorization in both directions. These comparisons form one goal theorem so every part of Proposition 4 remains present. Proposition 4, p. 13 is the source for the target.

What the result supplies

The first output comparison says that greater dispersion in input-to-output ratios leads to greater dispersion in equilibrium production under the same combined subsidy, while the total output stays equal. The increment comparisons identify which changes preserve or distinguish that dispersion when planting and harvesting payments increase. The profit statements give the corresponding order for farmer earnings. They make the distributional effect of a subsidy explicit rather than reducing it to a claim about aggregate crop supply.

A formal development supplies reusable definitions for finite majorization, this Cournot market, and best-response equilibrium. It also separates the paper's claimed order relations from the algebraic equilibrium formula. Proofs of the paper's known results remain to be checked in Lean. The mission makes no claim that Proposition 4 is an open research problem.

Why the comparison is delicate

Directly comparing farmer jjj in the two markets cannot establish majorization: the order compares sums of the largest coordinates, which need not belong to the same farmers in each market. The sign of cP−sPc_P-s_PcP​−sP​ can change because planting payments are unrestricted, so the ordering of farmers by output can reverse. Profit is quadratic in output, and the profit comparison is weak sub-majorization rather than equality of totals. Subsidy increments introduce additional equilibria; an increase in the planting payment can also alter which farmers are active. These features must be accounted for in a statement that retains every clause of Proposition 4.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the paper's NNN farmers by Fin N, so paper farmer jjj has Lean index j−1j-1j−1. The shared parameter record contains α,β,cP,cH\alpha,\beta,c_P,c_Hα,β,cP​,cH​; each market supplies its own sorted vector zzz. A standing predicate records N>0N>0N>0, α,β>0\alpha,\beta>0α,β>0, the ordering of zzz, and zj>0z_j>0zj​>0. The positive-ratio condition makes explicit that each ratio is formed from positive physical quantities. The two markets have the same parameter record, and no sign restriction is imposed on costs or subsidies.

The combined payment is a per-unit-output vector tj=zjsP+sHt_j=z_js_P+s_Htj​=zj​sP​+sH​. Equilibrium is a best-response condition over nonnegative output, not a definition by Proposition 3's formula. The top-sum order uses all subsets of kkk farmers, with equal total sums required for majorization. Averages range over all NNN farmers because the theorems work in the all-active regime. This rules out treating a formula-defined output vector or a weakened order as the market result.

The goal explicitly assumes positive output at the baseline and at both shifted subsidies. Positivity at the planting-shifted subsidy is needed for the paper's fixed-active-set increment formula but is unstated in Proposition 4. Positivity at the harvesting-shifted subsidy is implied by this market model; it is kept explicit without assuming an equilibrium-uniqueness theorem. The supporting increment milestone also includes an active equilibrium at the midpoint harvesting subsidy. The majorization lemmas can be reused for other finite-vector models, and the equilibrium characterization can support later analyses of this paper's subsidy programs.

Selected references

  • T. Fan, Q. Feng, Y. Li, J. G. Shanthikumar, and Y. Wu, Output-Oriented Agricultural Subsidy Design, SSRN preprint 4378693, version of March 18, 2023; forthcoming in Management Science. SSRN copy, journal DOI.
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