Motivation
Recommender systems on online platforms are usually trained to maximize engagement: time spent, items consumed, sessions returned. The implicit justification is revealed preference: a user who consumes more must value the content more. Behavioural economics questions that inference when a person's choices are driven by two conflicting processes, a deliberate one that weighs long-run utility and an impulsive one that reacts to the item in front of it.
Kleinberg, Mullainathan and Raghavan (2023) build a minimal model of such a user and ask when engagement is a good proxy for utility. Their first characterization (Theorem 4.1, a separate mission) says that the engagement-maximizing content differs from the utility-maximizing content only through higher moreishness, or higher span with lower value. This mission formalizes the complementary positive result, Theorem 4.2: on a content manifold where no content is very moreish and all content has roughly equal value (a "salad"-like manifold), maximizing engagement loses only a small, explicitly bounded amount of user utility.
Setting
A content distribution is a triple ω=(p,q,vˉ) in the parameter space
Ω=[0,1)×[0,1)×R+.
The user consumes items one at a time. System 2, the deliberate agent, collects utility with mean vˉ per item while it is still interested, and pays an outside option W>0 per step spent on the platform. After each item system 2 stays interested with probability q, the span. System 1, the impulsive agent, is hooked by each item with probability p, the moreishness, and then consumes the next item without consulting system 2. Define
gS(ω)=1−qvˉ−W−1−ppW,gT(ω)=1−q1+1−pp.
System 2 visits the platform only if this is worthwhile, so its expected utility is equation (1),
E[S(ω)]=max(gS(ω),0),
and the session length T is 0 when the user does not visit (gS(ω)<0) and otherwise has expectation E[T(ω)]=gT(ω), equation (2).
A platform chooses content from a content manifold M⊆Ω, which the paper assumes contains a point with E[S]>0. The utility maximizer ωS=(pS,qS,vˉS) maximizes gS over M (3). The engagement maximizer ωT=(pT,qT,vˉT) maximizes gT over the points of M at which the user participates, {ω∈M:gS(ω)≥0} (4). The proof uses ai=1−pi1 and bi=1−qi1 for i∈{S,T}, so that E[T(ωS)]=aS+bS−1.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 17)
Suppose p≤α<1 for every (p,q,vˉ)∈M, and ∣vˉ−v0∣<β for every (p,q,vˉ)∈M, for some v0. Then
E[S(ωT)] ≥ E[S(ωS)]−2βE[T(ωS)]−1−αα(v0+β).
Milestones (p. 18)
- Inequality (5): if gT(ωT)≥gT(ωS), then bS−bT≤aT−aS.
- Inequality (7): if 0≤pi≤α<1, then 1≤ai≤1−α1.
- The gap identity: when gS≥0 at both points,
E[S(ωS)]−E[S(ωT)]=bS(vˉS−vˉT)+(bS−bT)(vˉT−W)+W(aT−aS).
A supporting statement, implicit in the proof, is that participation gS(ω)≥0 at a point of Ω forces vˉ≥W.
Significance
The theorem is the paper's sufficient condition for engagement optimization to be benign. It is quantitative: the utility loss is linear in the value spread β, scaled by the engagement E[T(ωS)] of the utility-optimal content, plus a term that vanishes as the moreishness bound α goes to 0. The paper notes that the linear dependence on engagement is unavoidable, since a user can lose a constant utility per step when vˉT<vˉS. Together with Theorem 4.1 it delimits when a platform that observes only engagement can safely optimize it, and it motivates the paper's §5, on how a platform might learn which kind of manifold it is on.
The result is proved in the paper, with a short proof. As far as is known, neither the model nor the theorem has been machine-checked. The formalization fixes the participation convention for E[T], the feasibility of ωS in the engagement problem, and the implicit hypotheses listed below, which the printed proof uses without stating.
Difficulty
The algebra is elementary once the denominators are known to be positive. The difficulty lies in the bookkeeping the printed proof leaves implicit. Inequality (5) is derived from "E[T(ωT)]>E[T(ωS)]", but (4) only gives ≥, and only once ωS is shown feasible for (4), which needs gS(ωS)>0, i.e. the standing assumption on M. Multiplying (5) by vˉT−W needs vˉT≥W, which follows from gS(ωT)≥0 and W>0. The bound on (aT−aS)vˉT splits on the sign of aT−aS, and uses α≥0 (from M=∅) and v0+β>vˉT≥0. Finally, E[T(ωS)] must be identified with aS+bS−1 through participation at ωS. Using gT in place of E[T], or dropping the participation constraint from (4), changes the theorem.
Formalization scope
The Lean development lives in the namespace EngagementOpt.Salad and imports the frozen shared model in EngagementOpt.Misalign. There, a content distribution is a structure Params with real fields p, q, v; InOmega ω states 0≤p<1, 0≤q<1, 0≤vˉ. The shared functions gS W, gT and this chunk's ES W, ET W, aCoef, bCoef are as above, with ET W ω = if gS W ω < 0 then 0 else gT ω. The shared maximizer predicates IsUtilityMaximizer W M ωS (membership and IsMaxOn (gS W) M ωS) and IsEngagementMaximizer W M ωT (membership, 0 ≤ gS W ωT, and IsMaxOn gT {ω ∈ M | 0 ≤ gS W ω} ωT) hold for every maximizer, so the theorem holds for any tie-breaking rule. Closedness of M only guarantees that maximizers exist and is not assumed. The goal's hypotheses are: W>0; M⊆Ω; a point of M with gS>0; the two maximizer predicates; α<1 and p≤α on M; and ∣vˉ−v0∣<β on M for a given v0.
Three of these are implicit in the paper and are disclosed: W>0 (§2.1 normalizes W=1); α<1, without which condition 1 is vacuous on Ω and the bound fails (Lean's x/0=0 would turn α=1 into a false statement); and the standing assumption of p. 16. Neither 0≤α nor 0<β is assumed; both follow from the hypotheses. Inequality (5) is posed with ≤ rather than the printed <, because only ≥ is available from (4). The hypotheses are satisfiable: with W=1, M={(0,21,3),(21,21,3)}, α=21, v0=3, β=0.1, the maximizers are ωS=(0,21,3) and ωT=(21,21,3), and the bound reads 3≥0.5.
Everything needed is in Mathlib (real arithmetic, max, |·|, IsMaxOn). Proofs of the milestones and the goal are welcome; the base model module is shared with the Theorem 4.1 mission of the same paper.
Selected references
- J. Kleinberg, S. Mullainathan, M. Raghavan, The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization, Management Science, 2023. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2022.03683; read as arXiv:2202.11776v3.
- G. S. Becker, K. M. Murphy, A Theory of Rational Addiction, Journal of Political Economy 96(4), 1988. DOI 10.1086/261558.