Distributionally Robust Convex Optimization III: The Lifting Theorem — a Conic Bound on E[g(z̃)] Describes Exactly the z̃-Marginals of a Lifted Ambiguity SetResearch Paper
Motivation
Distributionally robust optimization asks a decision to perform well against every probability distribution in an ambiguity set , a family of distributions consistent with partial information about an uncertain parameter . Which kinds of information an ambiguity set can encode decides which models a solver can handle. Wiesemann, Kuhn and Sim (Optimization Online 3757, 2013; Operations Research 62(6), 2014, doi:10.1287/opre.2014.1314) introduce a standardized ambiguity set: distributions of described by one linear expectation constraint and by probability bounds on conic confidence sets. A linear expectation constraint can only fix means. Section 3 of the paper shows that it covers much more, through the Lifting Theorem (Theorem 5): a conic bound on a nonlinear moment is equivalent to a linear constraint on an auxiliary random vector together with an almost-sure conic constraint coupling and . With this result the paper recognizes mean, variance, mean absolute deviation and Huber-loss bounds as special cases of its standardized set.
This mission formalizes assertion (i) of the Lifting Theorem and two of its instances.
Setting
A proper cone is a closed convex cone that is pointed () and has nonempty interior; means . Fix a measurable map , a vector , measurable sets and bounds for in a finite index set .
The moment set (momentSet) contains the probability distributions on under which exists, , and for all .
The lifted set (liftedSet) contains the probability distributions on of a pair such that , , and for all .
For a set of joint distributions, the marginal (marginal) is the set of -marginals of its members.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 5 (i)
The goal is the set identity for arbitrary measurable , any proper cone and any finite family of measurable confidence sets.
Milestones
- , in the constructive form of the proof: for , the law of with lies in and has -marginal .
- The conic form of monotonicity of the expectation: almost surely implies .
- .
- Example 1 (Mean): for and no confidence sets, .
- Proposition 3, assertion 2 (Mean Absolute Deviation): , componentwise.
Significance
The result. Theorem 5 is what lets the paper's tractable reformulation (Theorem 1, a finite conic system equivalent to a worst-case expectation constraint) apply to ambiguity sets with nonlinear moment information. Without it, the standardized set would describe only first moments and confidence-set probabilities; with it, any moment function whose -epigraph is conic representable can be bounded, including covariance bounds through the semidefinite cone and robust-statistics bounds such as mean absolute deviation. The identity is exact, so worst-case expectations of functions of over and over coincide.
Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper (Appendix A, p. 40), in a few lines that pass silently over measure-theoretic points: existence of expectations, the measurability of the lift, and the transfer of expectations to the marginal. No machine-checked version exists. The formal statement makes the integrability conditions explicit and shows which of them are needed (see below). The same encoding serves the other lifted ambiguity sets of the paper (Examples 2–6, Propositions 2 and 3).
Difficulty
The informal proof is short; the difficulty is in the bookkeeping. The construction direction needs the pushforward of under to be a probability measure with the right expectations and marginal, which requires measurability of and integrability of . The projection direction needs an integral of a vector-valued function to stay in a closed convex cone when the integrand does so almost surely, and needs expectations of functions of to coincide under the joint law and under its marginal. The natural first attempt, reading and as enough to control , fails: can be very negative along the cone and need not have an expectation at all.
Formalization scope
Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, distributions are MeasureTheory.Measure with IsProbabilityMeasure, expectations are Bochner integrals, probabilities are μ.real, and is the image under Measure.map Prod.fst. The index set is Fin nI (0-based). The proper cone is a local predicate IsProperCone (closed, contains , closed under addition and nonnegative scaling, pointed, nonempty interior), and is y - x ∈ K.
Committed conventions and deviations from the page:
- Every expectation is read as existing and finite. Both sets carry
Integrableclauses; without them Lean's integral of a non-integrable map is , and the moment set would contain every distribution with whose has no expectation, a trivializing formalization that these clauses rule out. - The lifted set additionally requires to be integrable. This is necessary: with , , , , standard Cauchy and , the joint law meets the page's constraints but does not exist.
- The page's hypothesis that has a conic representable -epigraph is not used by assertion (i) and is dropped; is only assumed measurable. Assertion (ii) (" can be reformulated as an instance of (4)") is not formalized, since it rests on the informal notion of conic representability.
- Confidence sets are arbitrary measurable sets, a generalization of the paper's closed conic sets (5).
- In Example 1, the lifted set is an instance of the standardized ambiguity set (4), so its members are read as having a finite first moment of , as for every set of the form (4); the target set requires to exist. Without that clause the identity fails for (a -marginal without a mean).
A sanity file (not part of the proposal) proves milestone 2 and exhibits Dirac members of both sets, so the hypotheses are satisfiable.
Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and goal, and general lemmas on pushforward lifts and conic expectation bounds, which are reusable for the other lifted ambiguity sets of the series.
Selected references
- W. Wiesemann, D. Kuhn, M. Sim, Distributionally Robust Convex Optimization, Optimization Online preprint 3757 (version of September 22, 2013). https://optimization-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/3757.pdf
- W. Wiesemann, D. Kuhn, M. Sim, Distributionally Robust Convex Optimization, Operations Research 62(6):1358–1376, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1314