Solving Chance-Constrained Problems via a Smooth Sample-Based Nonlinear Approximation 1: Smoothed Sample Feasible Sets Lie in the True Feasible Set with Probability ≥ 1 − ⌈1/β⌉⌈2LD/t⌉ⁿ exp(−2NM²)Research Paper
Motivation
A chance-constrained program minimizes a cost over a closed set subject to a constraint that must hold with high probability rather than surely:
where is a random vector, collects the uncertain constraints, and is the tolerated risk. Such models are used in power-system dispatch, portfolio selection, and supply-chain and process design, wherever a constraint may be violated in rare scenarios at a controlled rate.
The probability is rarely computable, so in practice it is replaced by an estimate from an i.i.d. sample . The empirical frequency is a step function of and yields a mixed-integer program. Peña-Ordieres, Luedtke and Wächter (arXiv:1905.07377v2; SIAM J. Optim. 30(3), 2020) replace the indicator by a smooth approximation, which turns the sample problem into a smooth nonlinear program that standard solvers can handle. The question this mission addresses is whether a point accepted by the smoothed sample problem is actually feasible for the true chance constraint, and with what probability.
Timeline. Luedtke and Ahmed (SIAM J. Optim. 19 (2008)) proved finite-sample feasibility guarantees for the empirical (non-smooth) sample approximation, first for finite and then, under a Lipschitz condition on , for bounded (their Theorem 10). Peña-Ordieres, Luedtke and Wächter (2020) extended these guarantees to the smoothed approximation (Theorems 3.8, 3.11 and 3.13 of the preprint).
Setting
Let and let be admissible: strictly decreasing, symmetric in the sense , and such that the smoothed indicator
is differentiable on . The paper's concrete choice is a quartic-kernel polynomial (its (2.6)).
For a decision and a level , define
- the true cdf ;
- the smoothed cdf ;
- the smoothed sample cdf .
The true feasible set is , and the shifted sample feasible set with shift and sample risk level is
Throughout, has a continuous distribution for each (Assumption 3.1). The margin of a point is ; Assumption 3.7 asks that and .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3.13
Suppose is bounded with sup-norm diameter , that for all with probability one (Assumption 3.12), and that Assumption 3.7 holds with and . Then for every ,
Milestones
- Theorem 3.8. For , .
- Theorem 3.11. For finite , .
- The net claim (proof of Theorem 3.13). Each slice of by the value of at resolution has a finite subset with that is a -net of in .
- (3.5). Theorem 3.11 applied to the net with levels and .
- The transfer step. and imply .
- Corollary 3.9 (companion). If has a density strictly decreasing on and , then and .
Significance
The result. Theorem 3.13 gives an explicit, non-asymptotic sample size under which every point accepted by the smoothed sample problem (with a small shift and a slightly tightened risk level ) is feasible for the original chance constraint, uniformly over an infinite decision set. Solving the smooth approximation therefore yields certifiably feasible solutions with a quantified failure probability, the bound depending on the dimension only through the covering number . Corollary 3.9 adds that, under a monotone density near zero, the unshifted smoothed approximation is conservative.
Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized anywhere to our knowledge. A formal development would produce a machine-checked one-sided Hoeffding bound for averages of bounded functions of an i.i.d. sample, a union bound over a finite candidate set, and a sup-norm covering lemma, assembled into a uniform feasibility guarantee. These ingredients are reused across the sample-average-approximation literature.
Difficulty
The obvious argument is a union bound over , which fails for infinite : the event involves uncountably many points, and is not even obviously measurable. Discretizing by a sup-norm grid is not enough on its own either: a grid point may be infeasible while nearby points are feasible, and the true cdf need not be continuous in . The paper's device is to discretize simultaneously in and in the value of , which requires covering each level slice separately and then transferring sample feasibility from a point to its representative, at the price of the shift and the level change . Keeping the constants exactly as printed, with slices and points per slice, is part of the task.
Formalization scope
- Decisions are
Fin n → ℝ, whose Mathlib norm is the sup norm used in Assumption 3.12 and Theorem 3.13. is closed (the paper's standing hypothesis). - takes values in a measurable space with probability law . The sample is measurable maps on a probability space, mutually independent, each with law . is assumed measurable for (a disclosed addition: it makes a random variable). Assumption 3.1 is encoded as for all .
- Statements of the form "" are stated as with evaluated as an outer measure; this implies the printed form and assumes no measurability of the event.
- Assumption 3.7's infimum is a parameter with and on , equivalent to the infimum because the bounds decrease in .
- "Bounded with diameter " is on with . Positivity is necessary: for a single infeasible point and the printed bound with would read .
- A formalization in which these hypotheses are unsatisfiable, the event is assumed measurable, or is a junk infimum is ruled out: a sorry-free sanity file exhibits the quartic kernel (2.6) as admissible and a one-point instance meeting the goal's diameter and margin hypotheses.
- Not posed: Hoeffding's inequality (Theorem 3.6), whose one-sided form is in Mathlib (
ProbabilityTheory.measure_sum_ge_le_of_iIndepFunwithhasSubgaussianMGF_of_mem_Icc_of_integral_eq_zero); and Corollary 3.10, whose printed exponent does not follow from its proof.
Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, in particular the sup-norm covering lemma and the Hoeffding step, which are reusable beyond this mission.
Selected references
- A. Peña-Ordieres, J. R. Luedtke, A. Wächter, Solving chance-constrained problems via a smooth sample-based nonlinear approximation, SIAM J. Optim. 30(3), 2020; preprint arXiv:1905.07377v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.07377 , https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1261985
- J. Luedtke, S. Ahmed, A sample approximation approach for optimization with probabilistic constraints, SIAM J. Optim. 19(2), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/070702928
- W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 58, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830