Revenue Management Under the Markov Chain Choice Model I: The Dual Linear Program Yields an Optimal AssortmentResearch Paper
Motivation
A retailer or an airline decides which products to make available, and customers choose among what is offered. When a preferred product is missing, many customers substitute to another product instead of leaving. Assortment optimization asks which subset of products to offer so that the expected revenue from a customer is as large as possible, and its answer depends entirely on the choice model used to describe substitution.
The Markov chain choice model was introduced by Blanchet, Gallego and Goyal (EC 2013; Oper. Res. 64(4), 2016), who showed that it contains the multinomial logit model as a special case and proposed it as an approximation of general random-utility choice models. Feldman and Topaloglu (Oper. Res. 65(5), 2017) study revenue management under this model. Their first result, the subject of this mission, is that the assortment problem, a search over all offer sets, is solved by one linear program with variables. The same paper uses this result for its dynamic single-resource and network results, which are the subjects of the companion missions II–IV of this series.
Timeline:
- 2013/2016: Blanchet, Gallego and Goyal introduce the model and give a polynomial-time assortment algorithm.
- 2017: Feldman and Topaloglu show that the optimal assortment is read off an optimal solution of a dual linear program (their Theorem 2), and derive structural and capacity-control consequences.
Setting
There are products . A customer arrives to purchase product with probability . If the product she visits is offered, she buys it. Otherwise she transitions to product with probability and checks whether is offered, or leaves without buying with probability . Throughout, , and for all .
For an offer set , let be the expected number of visits to product while it is offered (the probability that is purchased) and the expected number of visits to while it is not offered. The pair is the unique solution of the (Balance) equations
With revenue for product , the (Assortment) problem is . Two linear programs enter: the maximization of over the polyhedron
and its dual
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 1326)
For every optimal solution of (Dual), the set is an optimal assortment:
Milestones, in the order the paper uses them
- (p. 1325) The (Balance) equations have a unique nonnegative solution for every .
- Lemma 1 (p. 1326): for an extreme point of and , and for all .
- (p. 1326) The linear program over has an optimal solution, and its optimal value equals the optimal value of (Assortment).
- (p. 1326) (Dual) has an optimal solution, and its optimal value equals that of the linear program over .
- (p. 1326, proof of Theorem 2) An optimal satisfies or for each .
Significance
Theorem 2 reduces a combinatorial problem over offer sets to a linear program, so the assortment problem under the Markov chain choice model is solvable in polynomial time. The same structure drives the rest of the paper: the dual variables are used to show that optimal offer sets shrink when all revenues fall by a common amount, to show that the optimal offer sets of the single-resource dynamic program are nested in the remaining capacity and time, and to reduce the choice-based network linear program to a compact one.
The result is proved in the paper. This mission produces a machine-checked version of it and of its supporting lemmas; to the knowledge of the mission author no formalization of the Markov chain choice model exists. The definition layer (the model, the (Balance) solution, and (Dual)) is the first formal encoding of this choice model and is shared, with the same encoding, by missions II–IV.
Difficulty
The obvious route, comparing across offer sets directly, fails because is defined only implicitly through a linear system whose coefficient matrix changes with ; there is no closed-form expression that can be compared across offer sets, and enumerating the sets is exponential. The connection to linear programming needs an exact correspondence between the vertices of and the (Balance) solutions, which is a statement about polyhedra, not about Markov chains. Even well-posedness is not free: existence, uniqueness and nonnegativity of depend on the row sums being strictly below one. Mathlib has extreme points of convex sets but no ready-made theory of vertices of polyhedra or of linear programming duality in this form.
Formalization scope
Products are Fin n (0-based), offer sets are Finset (Fin n) (the paper's is non-strict inclusion, so every subset including and is an offer set), and rho j i is , the transition from to . The model structure carries the paper's standing assumptions and (p. 1325) and the implicit nonnegativity . Revenues are arbitrary reals with no sign assumption. is (Fin n → ℝ) × (Fin n → ℝ), and extreme points are Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ.
The pair is a solution of (Balance) chosen by Classical.epsilon; milestone 1 states that it satisfies (Balance), is nonnegative and equals every solution, so all statements are about the paper's and not about a junk value. Every optimum (of (Assortment), of the linear program over , of (Dual)) is stated as "feasible and at least as good as every feasible point", never through sSup or sInf. The goal is stated for every optimal of (Dual), which is what the proof uses; uniqueness of is neither assumed nor claimed. Replacing the hypothesis " optimal for (Dual)" by " feasible for (Dual)" would make the statement false, and an existential over would weaken it; neither is the target.
No hypothesis beyond the paper's is added. Two printed index slips on pp. 1325–1326 (a garbled sum in the discussion after (Balance), and for in the proof of Lemma 1) are not part of any statement here.
Welcome contributions: the existence and uniqueness of (Balance) solutions via Neumann series for substochastic matrices, a characterization of vertices of polyhedra given by equality constraints and nonnegativity, and a strong duality statement usable for this primal–dual pair. These are reusable well beyond this mission.
Selected references
- J. B. Feldman, H. Topaloglu, Revenue Management Under the Markov Chain Choice Model, Operations Research 65(5):1322–1342, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1628
- J. Blanchet, G. Gallego, V. Goyal, A Markov Chain Approximation to Choice Modeling, Operations Research 64(4):886–905, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2016.1505
- M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887