Scenarios and Policy Aggregation in Optimization Under Uncertainty 1: In the Convex Case Progressive Hedging Converges to Optimal Solutions of (P) and (D) Exactly When They ExistResearch Paper
Motivation
Decisions under uncertainty are often modelled by a finite set of scenarios: possible futures with weights , each with its own optimization problem. Solving every scenario separately is easy but useless in practice, because the decision taken today cannot depend on which scenario will be revealed tomorrow. Progressive hedging, introduced by Rockafellar and Wets in Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty (IIASA Working Paper WP-87-119, 1987; Mathematics of Operations Research 16(1), 1991), restores this nonanticipativity by iterating between scenario-wise solves and an averaging step, guided by price systems that act as multipliers. It is the standard decomposition method for multistage stochastic programs and is implemented in widely used software such as PySP/mpi-sppy. This mission formalizes the paper's convergence theorem in the convex case, Theorem 5.1, together with the duality theory of §4 and the proof steps of §5 it rests on.
Setting
Let be a finite set of scenarios with weights , . For each the scenario subproblem is to minimize over , where is nonempty and closed and is locally Lipschitz with bounded level sets . The convex case is when every and is convex.
A decision vector is split by time, . A policy is a map ; the policy space carries the inner product and norm . At each time the scenarios are partitioned into bundles of scenarios that cannot yet be told apart. The aggregation replaces by its -weighted average over the bundle of at time , and . The implementable policies are constant on each , the price systems are , and the admissible policies are . With the problem is
Its Lagrangian is on , the dual is : maximize over with .
The progressive hedging algorithm fixes , starts from any and any , and in iteration sets , lets minimize
for every scenario, and updates .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 5.1
In the convex case with exact minimization, the sequences and are bounded if and only if (P) and (D) have optimal solutions. In that case there are optimal for (P) and for (D) with
and, with ,
for all , strictly unless , and the step lengths are nonincreasing from on.
Milestones
- Propositions 3.1–3.3: existence for the scenario subproblems, the lower bound , well-posedness of every modified subproblem (unique solution in the convex case), and compact level sets of on .
- Theorem 4.2 and Proposition 4.4 (in the convex case): the scenario-wise subgradient conditions are equivalent to a saddle point of , and the analogous conditions are necessary and sufficient for the iterates.
- Proposition 4.5 and Theorem 4.6: the perturbation function and the duality , .
- Proposition 5.3: each iteration is the unique saddle point of a proximal saddle function.
- From the proof of Theorem 5.1: firm nonexpansiveness (5.26) of the iteration map in , and the identification of its fixed points with primal–dual optimal pairs.
Significance
Theorem 5.1 is the guarantee behind progressive hedging in the convex case: solving only small scenario problems and averaging, the method finds a nonanticipative optimal policy and an optimal price system whenever these exist, with a distance to the solution that never increases. The dual sequence converges to a solution of (D), which gives the prices of information that the paper interprets economically. Boundedness of the iterates is an exact test for solvability.
The result is classical and fully proved on paper; its proof reduces the algorithm to Rockafellar's proximal point algorithm for a maximal monotone operator. No machine-checked version is known to exist. The mission produces a formal statement and, eventually, a proof of the full chain from scenario data to convergence, including the duality theorem of §4, which is of independent use for scenario-based stochastic programming. A related platform mission in this series treats the nonconvex case (limits of the algorithm satisfy first-order conditions).
Difficulty
The algorithm is not a proximal point method in the variable : it acts on the pair , and the averaged policy is in general not admissible while is in general not implementable. The step that fails in a direct attempt is showing that the map is firmly nonexpansive, which requires recognizing it as the resolvent of the monotone operator of a saddle function restricted to , in the rescaled norm rather than in the original product norm. A second difficulty is duality: identifying the fixed points of the iteration with optimal pairs of (P) and (D) needs the convex duality theory of §4 for an extended-real-valued perturbation function without any constraint qualification.
Formalization scope
is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); policies are functions S → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with S a Fintype. Time periods are a monotone map assigning each coordinate to its period, and each is a Setoid S; no refinement between periods is assumed. The standing assumptions of §3 are fields of the model structure, and the convex case is a separate hypothesis.
The inner product (2.2), norm (2.3) and (5.2) are explicit weighted sums. Mathlib's norm on a function type is the sup norm; it is used only for topology (boundedness, convergence, local Lipschitz continuity, compactness), which coincides with that of (2.3) in finite dimension. Stating (5.3) or (5.26) with Mathlib's sup norm would change the inequalities and is ruled out. Optimal values , , , , and are EReal infima and suprema, so that infeasibility gives and an unbounded dual objective gives ; real-valued sInf would silently return there. A solution of (D) must have . The algorithm is a predicate on sequences, with arbitrary and ; Proposition 3.2 shows the predicate is satisfiable.
Subgradients and normal cones are those of convex analysis; the normal cone is the published definition FirstOrderOpt.ConvexTheory.normalCone. Not formalized: the nonconvex (Clarke) parts of §4, the linear-quadratic case and its rate result, and inexact minimization.
A complete development needs: separable minimization over product sets, finite-dimensional compactness arguments, convex duality for a perturbation function on a subspace, and the convergence of the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators (Rockafellar 1976, Theorem 1 and Proposition 1). The last two are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either as standalone results are welcome.
Selected references
- R. T. Rockafellar and R. J.-B. Wets, Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty, IIASA Working Paper WP-87-119, 1987; Mathematics of Operations Research 16(1):119–147, 1991. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2933/ — https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.1.119
- R. T. Rockafellar, Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 14(5):877–898, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1137/0314056
- G. J. Minty, Monotone (nonlinear) operators in Hilbert space, Duke Mathematical Journal 29(3):341–346, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1215/S0012-7094-62-02933-2
- R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173