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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Processing Networks X: Maximal Stability of Proportionally Fair ControlTextbook

Motivation

Mission IX (09-proportional-fairness-core) formalized proportional fairness (PF) as a control policy and proved the technical core of its stability theory: under a load condition, the PF fluid model is stable (Theorem 10.5), via an entropy Lyapunov function that is genuinely not Lipschitz continuous — a departure from every other stability argument in J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison's Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming; cited here from the authors' pre-publication draft, 2020-4-2, http://spnbook.org). A stability theorem for one fixed arrival-rate vector is, on its own, a narrower claim than practitioners actually want: real systems see load that changes over time, and a control policy worth adopting should not need re-tuning every time the mix of traffic shifts. This mission completes Theorem 10.5's proof and turns it into exactly that stronger guarantee — proportional fairness is maximally stable: stable throughout the entire region where any policy could be stable, without knowing the arrival rates in advance — and specializes the result to two concrete network families, bandwidth-sharing networks and queueing networks under head-of-line proportional processor sharing (HLPPS), that were already familiar from earlier in the book under different control policies.

Setting

Fix a unitary network operating under PF control with mean service times m>0m > 0m>0, routing matrix PPP, a partition of job classes into demand groups {I(ℓ),ℓ∈L}\{\mathcal I(\ell), \ell \in \mathcal L\}{I(ℓ),ℓ∈L}, and a reduced allocation set A~⊂R+L\tilde{\mathcal A} \subset \mathbb R^{\mathcal L}_+A~⊂R+L​ (all restated from mission IX, Definition 10.3). The entropy Lyapunov function φ(t):=∑iZi(t)log⁡(D˙i(t)/αi)\varphi(t) := \sum_i Z_i(t)\log(\dot D_i(t)/\alpha_i)φ(t):=∑i​Zi​(t)log(D˙i​(t)/αi​) (Eq. 10.38, mission IX) admits an alternative decomposition φ=∑ℓφℓ\varphi = \sum_\ell \varphi_\ellφ=∑ℓ​φℓ​ in terms of the within-group entropy term

f(t):=∑ℓ∈L∑i∈I(ℓ)Zi(t)log⁡ ⁣(Zi(t)Yℓ(t)),Y(t):=GZ(t)(Eq. 10.50),f(t) := \sum_{\ell\in\mathcal L}\sum_{i\in\mathcal I(\ell)} Z_i(t)\log\!\left(\frac{Z_i(t)}{Y_\ell(t)}\right), \qquad Y(t) := GZ(t) \quad \text{(Eq. 10.50)},f(t):=ℓ∈L∑​i∈I(ℓ)∑​Zi​(t)log(Yℓ​(t)Zi​(t)​),Y(t):=GZ(t)(Eq. 10.50),

with the convention that the term for class iii is 000 when Zi(t)=0Z_i(t)=0Zi​(t)=0. Here D+D^+D+/D−D^-D− denote the upper-right/upper-left Dini derivatives (Appendix A.4, Eqs. A.9-A.10): at a point where the ordinary derivative may not exist, these one-sided lim sup⁡\limsuplimsups still let a Lyapunov-drift argument go through. A control policy is maximally stable (Section 5.7) for a network if its implementation does not depend on the arrival-rate vector λ\lambdaλ and it is stable for every λ\lambdaλ in the network's stability region Λ∗\Lambda^*Λ∗ — the largest region any policy could possibly stabilize.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 10.16 — maximal stability of PF control for a unitary network

IsMaximallyStable(λ↦PFFluidStable(λ,m,P,grp,A~))\text{IsMaximallyStable}\Big(\lambda \mapsto \text{PFFluidStable}(\lambda, m, P, \mathrm{grp}, \tilde{\mathcal A})\Big)IsMaximallyStable(λ↦PFFluidStable(λ,m,P,grp,A~))

for the single PF policy value (its implementation never depends on λ\lambdaλ). This is the applied payoff of Theorem 10.5 (mission IX): combined with Theorem 6.2 (mission III, fluid stability implies SPN stability) and Corollary 5.6 (mission II, a λ\lambdaλ-independent policy stable throughout the subcritical region is automatically maximally stable), it upgrades a single-λ\lambdaλ stability statement to the strongest form the book's own framework can express.

Supporting milestones

Lemmas 10.11-10.15 supply the remaining technical content of Theorem 10.5's proof that mission IX's own milestones left open: Lemma 10.11 is the uniform negative-drift bound ∑iZ˙i(t)log⁡(D˙i(t)/αi)≤−ε\sum_i \dot Z_i(t)\log(\dot D_i(t)/\alpha_i) \le -\varepsilon∑i​Z˙i​(t)log(D˙i​(t)/αi​)≤−ε at every regular point with Z(t)≠0Z(t) \ne 0Z(t)=0; Lemmas 10.12-10.14 establish continuity and two successively sharper Dini-derivative bounds on the within-group entropy term fff; Lemma 10.15 shows that positivity of the departure rate D˙i(t)\dot D_i(t)D˙i​(t) propagates from occupied classes to every class. Corollaries 10.17 and 10.18 specialize the goal to bandwidth-sharing networks and to HLPPS-controlled queueing networks, respectively.

Significance

The result itself. A stability theorem tied to one fixed λ\lambdaλ is of limited practical use: it would need to be re-verified every time the arrival-rate vector changes, which real traffic does constantly. Maximal stability removes that dependency entirely — a single policy, implemented without any knowledge of λ\lambdaλ, is guaranteed stable throughout the full region any control could stabilize. Corollaries 10.17 and 10.18 make this concrete for two network families with independent histories in the literature: bandwidth-sharing networks (the original motivation for proportional fairness, Kelly 1997) and queueing networks under HLPPS, connecting PF's static, utility-theoretic motivation to a scheduling rule that predates it.

Formalizing it. A live prior-art check (GET /theorems?q=proportional%20fairness, q=maximal%20stability, q=bandwidth%20sharing) finds no relevant hits on the platform. This mission formalizes the remaining entropy-Lyapunov lemmas, the within-group entropy term, the BWS and HLPPS network models (restated locally, since no other drafted chunk covers Sections 4.5-4.6), and the maximal-stability predicate, reusing only Mathlib's general real-analysis substrate (Dini derivatives via Filter.limsup) and definitions restated from missions II, III, V, and IX under this series' restate-not-import convention for concurrently-drafted chunks.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to Corollary 10.16 — restate "maximally stable" with an explicit λ\lambdaλ-dependent policy family and add "the policy doesn't actually depend on λ\lambdaλ" as a side hypothesis — obscures the point: a policy that is definitionally independent of λ\lambdaλ is a stronger and cleaner claim than one that happens to satisfy an extra equation. This formalization instead instantiates the abstract policy type at Unit, so λ\lambdaλ-independence holds by construction rather than as a hypothesis to verify, matching the book's own reading of Section 5.7's definition. A second difficulty is Lemma 10.13's Dini-derivative inequality (Eq. 10.56): the plain-text extraction of this display equation loses bracket and subscript structure that changes its meaning, so the exact grouping was confirmed against the PDF page directly and cross-checked against the book's own re-derivation of the same bracketed expression inside Lemma 10.14's proof. A third is Corollary 10.17's proof, which genuinely depends on three facts outside this chunk's own chapter portion (Proposition 4.4 and the Section 4.4 model translation, Proposition 5.1, Theorem 5.2); rather than silently assuming them or re-deriving their proofs from scratch, they are stated as explicit hypotheses of the milestone itself, so the item's actual content — deriving the two-sided conclusion — is exactly what remains to be proved.

Formalization scope

RestatedCore, RestatedFluidModel, and the maximal-stability predicate MaximalStability are restated verbatim (or, for MaximalStability, in shape) from missions IX, III/V, and II respectively, since concurrently-drafted chunks in this series do not import one another's Lean files even when they share a sub-namespace. New to this chunk: diniUpperLeft (Eq. A.10, needed alongside mission IX's diniUpperRight for Lemma 10.13's two-sided bound), the within-group entropy term withinGroupEntropy (Eq. 10.50, deliberately not named f, since the book's own f already denotes the unrelated PF optimization objective of Eq. 10.2 within the same chapter), and BWSNetworkData/QueueingNetworkDataHL/HLPPSFluidStable (Sections 4.5-4.6, restated locally since no drafted chunk's BRIEF.md covers them). The formalization does not admit a trivializing reading: IsMaximallyStable is instantiated with the genuine, non-vacuous predicate PFFluidStable/HLPPSFluidStable — the same predicate whose stability Theorem 10.5 (mission IX) already establishes on the load-condition region — never with a policy type or stability predicate engineered to make the maximal-stability claim vacuous. Contributions completing the eight by sorry proofs are welcome, particularly Lemma 10.13's Dini-derivative estimate (Section B.4's preliminary results) and Lemma 10.15's connectivity argument (Appendix B.9/B.17).

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, Cambridge University Press (forthcoming), pre-publication draft 2020-4-2. http://spnbook.org
  • F. P. Kelly, "Charging and rate control for elastic traffic," European Transactions on Telecommunications 8 (1997), 33–37.
  • F. P. Kelly, A. K. Maulloo, and D. K. H. Tan, "Rate control for communication networks: shadow prices, proportional fairness and stability," Journal of the Operational Research Society 49 (1998), 237–252.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management: Performance Guarantee of the Deterministic Price Heuristic in Periodic-Review PricingResearch Paper

Motivation

Dynamic pricing under limited inventory is a core problem of revenue management: a seller holds C0C_0C0​ units of a perishable product (airline seats, hotel rooms, seasonal goods) and must choose prices over a finite selling horizon while demand is random and responds to price. The exactly optimal policy solves a stochastic dynamic program whose state is the remaining inventory, and it changes the price after every sale. In practice sellers often prefer a simpler rule, fixed in advance: solve the deterministic version of the problem, in which random demand is replaced by its mean, and charge the resulting prices whatever happens.

Gallego and van Ryzin (Management Science 1994) showed that in continuous time with Poisson demand this fixed-price heuristic is asymptotically optimal, and bounded its relative loss by the coefficient of variation of demand. Bitran and Caldentey's survey (MSOM 2003, §3.2.1) extends this bound to a discrete-time, periodic-review model with general demand distributions, as Proposition 8, proved in the paper's Appendix. The proof combines three ingredients: a Lagrangian duality argument showing that the deterministic problem is an upper bound on the optimal expected revenue, a sample-path comparison of lost sales, and a distribution-free moment bound of Gallego (1992) on E[(X−C)+]E[(X-C)^+]E[(X−C)+].

Setting

A single product is sold over N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 periods n=1,…,Nn = 1, \dots, Nn=1,…,N starting from inventory C0C_0C0​. In period nnn the seller charges a price p≥0p \ge 0p≥0, and the demand Dn(p)D_n(p)Dn​(p) is a nonnegative random variable with finite mean E[Dn(p)]E[D_n(p)]E[Dn​(p)], whose law may depend on nnn and ppp arbitrarily. With inventory CCC the seller sells min⁡{D,C}\min\{D, C\}min{D,C} units; unmet demand is lost.

The optimal expected revenue V1(C0)V_1(C_0)V1​(C0​) is defined by the Bellman recursion VN+1≡0V_{N+1} \equiv 0VN+1​≡0,

Vn(C)=sup⁡p≥0E[pmin⁡{Dn(p),C}+Vn+1(C−min⁡{Dn(p),C})].V_n(C) = \sup_{p \ge 0} E\big[p\min\{D_n(p), C\} + V_{n+1}\big(C - \min\{D_n(p), C\}\big)\big].Vn​(C)=p≥0sup​E[pmin{Dn​(p),C}+Vn+1​(C−min{Dn​(p),C})].

The deterministic problem (32)–(33) is

V1det⁡(C0)=sup⁡p∈[0,∞)N∑n=1NpnE[Dn(pn)]subject to∑n=1NE[Dn(pn)]≤C0,V_1^{\det}(C_0) = \sup_{p \in [0,\infty)^N} \sum_{n=1}^N p_n E[D_n(p_n)] \quad \text{subject to} \quad \sum_{n=1}^N E[D_n(p_n)] \le C_0,V1det​(C0​)=p∈[0,∞)Nsup​n=1∑N​pn​E[Dn​(pn​)]subject ton=1∑N​E[Dn​(pn​)]≤C0​,

and pdet⁡p^{\det}pdet denotes an optimal solution. The deterministic-price heuristic charges pndet⁡p^{\det}_npndet​ in period nnn regardless of sales. Its period demands Dn(pndet⁡)D_n(p_n^{\det})Dn​(pndet​) are independent, Dndet⁡=∑i=1nDi(pidet⁡)\mathscr{D}_n^{\det} = \sum_{i=1}^n D_i(p_i^{\det})Dndet​=∑i=1n​Di​(pidet​) is the cumulative demand, and its expected revenue is

V1(pdet⁡,C0)=∑n=1Npndet⁡E[Dn(pndet⁡)−(Dn(pndet⁡)−(C0−Dn−1det⁡)+)+].V_1(p^{\det}, C_0) = \sum_{n=1}^N p_n^{\det} E\Big[D_n(p_n^{\det}) - \big(D_n(p_n^{\det}) - (C_0 - \mathscr{D}_{n-1}^{\det})^+\big)^+\Big].V1​(pdet,C0​)=n=1∑N​pndet​E[Dn​(pndet​)−(Dn​(pndet​)−(C0​−Dn−1det​)+)+].

With σn2=Var⁡(Dndet⁡)\sigma_n^2 = \operatorname{Var}(\mathscr{D}_n^{\det})σn2​=Var(Dndet​), eq. (34) defines

ηndet⁡(C0)=σn2+(C0−E[Dndet⁡])2−(C0−E[Dndet⁡])2,\eta_n^{\det}(C_0) = \frac{\sqrt{\sigma_n^2 + (C_0 - E[\mathscr{D}_n^{\det}])^2} - (C_0 - E[\mathscr{D}_n^{\det}])}{2},ηndet​(C0​)=2σn2​+(C0​−E[Dndet​])2​−(C0​−E[Dndet​])​,

and ν(C0)=σN/E[DNdet⁡]\nu(C_0) = \sigma_N / E[\mathscr{D}_N^{\det}]ν(C0​)=σN​/E[DNdet​] is the coefficient of variation of the total demand.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8, eq. (35)

Assume that p↦p E[Dn(p)]p \mapsto p\,E[D_n(p)]p↦pE[Dn​(p)] is concave and p↦E[Dn(p)]p \mapsto E[D_n(p)]p↦E[Dn​(p)] is convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) for each nnn, that some price p∞≥0p^\infty \ge 0p∞≥0 has ∑nE[Dn(p∞)]<C0\sum_n E[D_n(p^\infty)] < C_0∑n​E[Dn​(p∞)]<C0​, and that pdet⁡p^{\det}pdet is optimal for (32)–(33). Then

1≥V1(pdet⁡,C0)V1(C0)≥1V1det⁡(C0)∑n=1Npndet⁡E[Dn(pndet⁡)](1−ηndet⁡(C0)E[Dn(pndet⁡)])≥1−max⁡nηndet⁡(C0)E[Dn(pndet⁡)].1 \ge \frac{V_1(p^{\det}, C_0)}{V_1(C_0)} \ge \frac{1}{V_1^{\det}(C_0)} \sum_{n=1}^N p_n^{\det} E[D_n(p_n^{\det})]\left(1 - \frac{\eta_n^{\det}(C_0)}{E[D_n(p_n^{\det})]}\right) \ge 1 - \max_n \frac{\eta_n^{\det}(C_0)}{E[D_n(p_n^{\det})]}.1≥V1​(C0​)V1​(pdet,C0​)​≥V1det​(C0​)1​n=1∑N​pndet​E[Dn​(pndet​)](1−E[Dn​(pndet​)]ηndet​(C0​)​)≥1−nmax​E[Dn​(pndet​)]ηndet​(C0​)​.

The constants are the paper's, and the goal is the full chain.

Milestones

  1. Gallego's bound (Appendix, (*)): for square-integrable XXX, E[(X−C)+]≤12(Var⁡X+(C−EX)2−(C−EX))E[(X - C)^+] \le \frac12\big(\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}X + (C - EX)^2} - (C - EX)\big)E[(X−C)+]≤21​(VarX+(C−EX)2​−(C−EX)), which is at most 12Var⁡X\frac12\sqrt{\operatorname{Var} X}21​VarX​ when EX≤CEX \le CEX≤C.
  2. Eq. (24): in one period, E[pmin⁡{D(p),C}]≤pmin⁡{E[D(p)],C}E[p\min\{D(p), C\}] \le p\min\{E[D(p)], C\}E[pmin{D(p),C}]≤pmin{E[D(p)],C}, so V(C)≤Vdet⁡(C)V(C) \le V^{\det}(C)V(C)≤Vdet(C).
  3. Proposition 6, eq. (26): in one period, V(C,pdet⁡)/V(C)≥1−νdet⁡/2V(C, p^{\det})/V(C) \ge 1 - \nu^{\det}/2V(C,pdet)/V(C)≥1−νdet/2.
  4. V1det⁡V_1^{\det}V1det​ is concave in the capacity (first sentence of the Appendix proof).
  5. Proposition 8, first assertion: V1(C0)≤V1det⁡(C0)V_1(C_0) \le V_1^{\det}(C_0)V1​(C0​)≤V1det​(C0​).
  6. The Appendix display bounding V1(pdet⁡,C0)V_1(p^{\det}, C_0)V1​(pdet,C0​) below by ∑npndet⁡E[Dn](1−E[(Dndet⁡−C0)+]/E[Dn])\sum_n p_n^{\det}E[D_n](1 - E[(\mathscr{D}_n^{\det} - C_0)^+]/E[D_n])∑n​pndet​E[Dn​](1−E[(Dndet​−C0​)+]/E[Dn​]).
  7. Eq. (36), after the goal: if E[Dn(p)]=Tnλ(p)E[D_n(p)] = T_n\lambda(p)E[Dn​(p)]=Tn​λ(p), one constant price solves (32)–(33) and 1≥V1(pdet⁡,C0)/V1(C0)≥1−ν(C0)/21 \ge V_1(p^{\det},C_0)/V_1(C_0) \ge 1 - \nu(C_0)/21≥V1​(pdet,C0​)/V1​(C0​)≥1−ν(C0​)/2.

Significance

The result gives a guarantee for a pricing policy that needs no inventory tracking: its relative loss is controlled by the first two moments of cumulative demand, with no distributional assumption beyond finite variance. When demand grows while its coefficient of variation shrinks, as for sums of independent period demands, the guarantee tends to one, which is the discrete-time form of asymptotic optimality of fixed prices. The upper bound V1≤V1det⁡V_1 \le V_1^{\det}V1​≤V1det​ is used throughout revenue management as the benchmark for heuristics (fluid or deterministic LP bounds).

The paper's proof is complete in the Appendix, and the mathematics is not in question beyond minor typos. None of it is machine-checked. A formal development adds a checked Bellman model of periodic-review pricing with general demand laws, a checked fluid upper bound for it, and a checked form of Gallego's moment bound, all reusable for other revenue-management statements. A related platform theorem, RevenueManagement.deterministic_upper_bound (mission The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management III), states the deterministic bound for a Bernoulli-arrival model with at most one sale per period; the model here is different (arbitrary demand laws, continuous inventory), and neither statement implies the other.

Difficulty

The upper bound V1(C0)≤V1det⁡(C0)V_1(C_0) \le V_1^{\det}(C_0)V1​(C0​)≤V1det​(C0​) is the hard part. The natural induction replaces V2V_2V2​ by V2det⁡V_2^{\det}V2det​ and applies Jensen's inequality, but V2det⁡(C)V_2^{\det}(C)V2det​(C) is −∞-\infty−∞ at capacities where the remaining deterministic problem is infeasible, while V2(C)V_2(C)V2​(C) stays nonnegative. The induction therefore fails as stated when mean demand never vanishes. The paper's argument also passes through the Lagrangian dual of (32)–(33), and strong duality for that program on [0,∞)N[0,\infty)^N[0,∞)N under the Slater point p∞p^\inftyp∞ is not available in Mathlib in this form.

The lower bound is less deep but technical: it needs the product law of the period demands, linearity of expectation for truncated sums, and variances of partial sums. Gallego's inequality is elementary once the right quadratic bound on (x−C)+(x - C)^+(x−C)+ is found, but it is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

  • Periods are Fin N, 0-based. Demand laws are μ n p : Measure ℝ, probability measures carried by [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite mean, required at every price (laws at negative prices never enter a statement).
  • The Bellman value is computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with the lower Lebesgue integral and ⨆ over p≥0p \ge 0p≥0, so no supremum takes a junk value; the paper's VnV_nVn​ is valueToGo M (N - n + 1). Ratios use its real value.
  • V1det⁡V_1^{\det}V1det​ is an EReal supremum over the feasible set (−∞-\infty−∞ if infeasible). In the goal pdet⁡p^{\det}pdet is an optimal solution, so V1det⁡(C0)V_1^{\det}(C_0)V1det​(C0​) is its objective value.
  • The heuristic's demands are independent: the joint law is the product measure.
  • Implicit hypotheses made explicit: "concave objective and convex feasible region" is read as concavity of p E[Dn(p)]p\,E[D_n(p)]pE[Dn​(p)] and convexity of E[Dn(p)]E[D_n(p)]E[Dn​(p)] on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), the latter making (33) convex for every capacity; existence of the optimal deterministic solution; finite variance and positive mean of each Dn(pndet⁡)D_n(p_n^{\det})Dn​(pndet​); and V1det⁡(C0)>0V_1^{\det}(C_0) > 0V1det​(C0​)>0, without which the ratios are 0/00/00/0.
  • The typo Dndet⁡:=∑i=1nDn(pdet⁡)\mathscr{D}_n^{\det} := \sum_{i=1}^n D_n(p^{\det})Dndet​:=∑i=1n​Dn​(pdet) on p. 221 is read as ∑i=1nDi(pidet⁡)\sum_{i=1}^n D_i(p_i^{\det})∑i=1n​Di​(pidet​).

Trivializing formalizations ruled out: V1V_1V1​ is defined by the Bellman recursion, not as a supremum over an unspecified policy class or as a variable constrained by hypotheses; ηndet⁡\eta_n^{\det}ηndet​ is the expression (34), not a hypothesis-supplied bound on expected overflow; the goal does not assume strong duality or a Lagrange multiplier, since that is the proof's key step; independence is built into the joint law, not assumed as an inequality; variances are taken only under square integrability, since Mathlib's variance is 000 for infinite variance.

Needed infrastructure: measurability of the Bellman integrand (monotonicity of VnV_nVn​ in inventory), Jensen's inequality for min⁡{⋅,C}\min\{\cdot, C\}min{⋅,C} (ConcaveOn.le_map_integral), Lagrangian strong duality for a separable concave program with one convex constraint, marginals and variances of sums under Measure.pi, and Gallego's bound. The duality and moment results are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of the upper bound, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. R. Bitran, R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–230, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.3.203.16061
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • G. Gallego, A Minmax Distribution Free Procedure for the (Q, R) Inventory Model, Operations Research Letters 11(1):55–60, 1992 (as cited in Bitran and Caldentey 2003).
  • M. S. Bazaraa, H. D. Sherali, C. M. Shetty, Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1993.
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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Processing Networks IX: Fluid Stability of the Proportionally Fair AllocationTextbook

Motivation

Every control policy formalized so far in this series — HLSPS (mission VI), back-pressure/ max-weight (mission VIII) — allocates service effort to entire job classes as indivisible units. Proportional fairness takes a different starting point: it is a general-purpose recipe for dividing a shared, continuously divisible resource among competing demands, originally developed for bandwidth allocation in communication networks and later adopted throughout economics and operations research as the canonical notion of a "fair" allocation. J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison's Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming; cited here from the authors' pre-publication draft, 2020-4-2, http://spnbook.org) devotes Chapter 10 to showing that proportional fairness, applied dynamically to a processing network's current buffer contents, is not just an attractive fairness criterion but a maximally stable control policy — stable throughout the entire subcritical region of any unitary network. This mission formalizes the static optimization problem underlying proportional fairness, its key structural properties, the resulting fluid model, and the deepest single theorem of the chapter: fluid stability under the standard load condition, proved via a Lyapunov function that is explicitly not Lipschitz continuous — a genuine departure from every other stability proof in the book.

Setting

The PF allocation function ψ(z)\psi(z)ψ(z) solves, for a demand vector z∈R+Iz \in \mathbb R^I_+z∈R+I​, the concave optimization problem max⁡x∈A∑izilog⁡(xi)\max_{x \in \mathcal A} \sum_i z_i \log(x_i)maxx∈A​∑i​zi​log(xi​) (Eq. 10.3-10.4) over a bounded, closed, convex, monotone capacity-constraint set A\mathcal AA. When A\mathcal AA has the special "aggregate" structure induced by grouping classes with identical resource requirements into demand groups, ψ\psiψ satisfies a resource-relevant aggregation property (Proposition 10.2): its value depends on the full demand vector only through group-level aggregates. Applying ψ\psiψ dynamically — recomputing it from the current buffer-content vector at every decision time — to a unitary network (one-to-one correspondence between job classes and service types) under relaxed control defines the PF control policy, whose fluid limit is the PF fluid model (Definition 10.3, Eqs. 10.29-10.35).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.5 — fluid stability of the PF control policy

If the load condition (10.37) — an equivalent, group-level-aggregate reformulation of the standard load condition ρ<b\rho < bρ<b — holds, then the PF fluid model is stable. Combined with Theorem 6.2 (mission III) and Corollary 5.6, this is the technical core of showing PF control is maximally stable, exactly the same shape of result as mission VIII's back-pressure theorem, but for a policy defined by a fundamentally different (utility-maximization, rather than weighted-throughput-maximization) principle.

Supporting milestones

Lemma 10.1 establishes that ψ\psiψ is well-defined at all (existence), essentially unique where it matters (uniqueness on positive-demand coordinates), extreme, scale-invariant, and continuous — six properties that everything downstream depends on. Proposition 10.2 is the aggregation property described above. Proposition 10.4 restates the standard load condition in the group-level-aggregate coordinates Theorem 10.5's proof actually uses. Lemmas 10.6, 10.7, 10.8, and 10.9 develop the properties of the entropy Lyapunov function φ(t):=∑iZi(t)log⁡(D˙i(t)/αi)\varphi(t) := \sum_i Z_i(t)\log(\dot D_i(t)/\alpha_i)φ(t):=∑i​Zi​(t)log(D˙i​(t)/αi​) (Eq. 10.38) that Theorem 10.5's proof needs: nonnegativity (and strict positivity away from the origin), continuity on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), a uniform upper bound on its Dini derivative, and a pointwise bound on that derivative at regular points, in terms of the fluid-scale departure and content rates.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 10.5 shows that proportional fairness — motivated purely by a static fairness axiom (Eq. 10.14) with no reference to queueing dynamics at all — turns out to be a maximally stable dynamic control policy once applied recursively to a unitary network's evolving buffer contents. This is a substantive and non-obvious fact: nothing in PF's static definition anticipates a stability guarantee, and the book's own text stresses the mismatch between PF's static motivation (utility/fairness) and the metric of interest for a queueing system (buffer content, response time). Unlike essentially every other stability proof in the book, Theorem 10.5's proof uses a Lyapunov function (φ\varphiφ) that is provably not absolutely continuous, which is why it needs Lemma 8.11's more delicate Dini-derivative extinction criterion (mission V) rather than the simpler Lipschitz-based criteria (Lemmas 8.5/8.6) used everywhere else.

Formalizing it. A live prior-art check (GET /theorems?q=proportional%20fairness, q=entropy, q=concave%20optimization) finds no relevant hits — the one "entropy" result on the platform is an unrelated matrix-multiplication construction. This mission formalizes the concave PF optimization problem, its allocation function, the aggregation property, and the entropy Lyapunov machinery entirely from scratch, reusing only Mathlib's general convex-analysis and EReal substrate.

Difficulty

The chapter's own convention log⁡(0)=−∞\log(0) = -\inftylog(0)=−∞, 0log⁡(0)=00\log(0) = 00log(0)=0 (Eq. 10.2) cannot be captured by Mathlib's Real.log, whose value at 0 is 0, not -\infty — a silent substitution would corrupt exactly the boundary behavior Lemma 10.1(a)'s existence/uniqueness argument turns on (distinguishing feasible points with xi=0x_i=0xi​=0 for some i∈I+(z)i \in \mathcal I_+(z)i∈I+​(z), which must be strictly dominated, from those without). This mission instead defines the PF objective via EReal, using an explicit extended logarithm (⊥ at 0) and Mathlib's own convention that EReal multiplication satisfies 0 * y = 0 for every y — which reproduces the book's 0 log(0) = 0 rule automatically, with no case split, a pleasant instance of genuine Mathlib substrate reuse resolving what looked like a from-scratch formalization problem. A second difficulty is structural: ψ\psiψ is not merely "a maximizer" but a specific maximizer, normalized to zero on every coordinate with zero demand (Eq. 10.5) — needed so that Lemma 10.1(c)/(d)'s scale-invariance and continuity statements are about a genuine function of zzz, not merely about an arbitrarily-chosen selection from a possibly-multivalued correspondence.

Formalization scope

IsPFDomain, f, IsPFMaximizer, and psi formalize Section 10.1's optimization problem directly, with IsPFMaximizer phrased as "feasible and dominates every feasible alternative" (avoiding sSup/⨆ entirely, per this series' junk-value-avoidance convention). IsTotalArrivalRates (restating Eq. 2.38) and RegularPoint (restating Definition 8.7) are restated locally, matching this series' convention that drafts do not import one another. diniUpperRight duplicates mission V's LyapunovCriteria.diniUpperRight verbatim — this chunk's own BRIEF.md dependency list does not include mission V, so, per the same restate-not-import convention, it is restated here rather than cross-imported (the duplication is intentional and documented, not an oversight). Lemma 10.7 (continuity of φ\varphiφ on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞)) is added beyond BRIEF.md's own disposition table: the book itself lists it as one of "the following five lemmas" (10.6, 10.7, 10.8, 10.9, 10.11) that suffice to prove Theorem 10.5, on the same page as Lemmas 10.6/10.8/10.9 — a planning-time omission caught during drafting and documented in HARD.md. Lemma 10.11 itself, though stated on the same page, is not included here: the companion chunk (10-proportional-fairness-applications) explicitly begins at "Lemma 10.11 onward," and its own negative-drift conclusion is exactly what completes Theorem 10.5's proof — a dependency this mission's goal theorem does not need to expose in its own statement, since (10.37) is already the theorem's complete, book-stated hypothesis. IsPFDomain, IsPFMaximizer, psi, groupAggregate, IsPFFluidModelSolution, and phi are the primary reusable contributions; contributions completing the eight by sorry proofs, especially Lemma 10.1's six-part argument and the entropy-Lyapunov lemmas' analysis (Section B.4's preliminary results), are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, Cambridge University Press (forthcoming), pre-publication draft 2020-4-2. http://spnbook.org
  • F. P. Kelly, A. K. Maulloo, and D. K. H. Tan, "Rate control for communication networks: shadow prices, proportional fairness and stability," Journal of the Operational Research Society 49 (1998), 237–252.
  • R. Srikant and L. Ying, Communication Networks: An Optimization, Control, and Stochastic Networks Perspective, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Processing Networks VIII: Maximal Stability of Back-Pressure ControlTextbook

Motivation

Every stability result up through mission VII proves that a particular control policy — a fixed priority list, HLSPS, a policy tailored to one network's topology — keeps a specific processing network stable throughout its subcritical region. None of them answer a more practical question a system designer actually faces: given an arbitrary Leontief network (one where every activity has a well-defined, unique buffer it draws from), is there a single control rule, computable from the network's data alone with no bespoke analysis, that is guaranteed stable whenever stability is possible at all? J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison's Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming; cited here from the authors' pre-publication draft, 2020-4-2, http://spnbook.org) answers this in Chapter 9 with the back-pressure (equivalently, in the single-hop case, max-weight) control policy: at every decision time, choose the allocation of service effort that maximizes a bilinear "weighted throughput" objective built directly from current buffer contents. This mission formalizes the policy, the characteristic fluid equation it induces, and the resulting maximal-stability theorem — the chapter's central result and one of the most cited scheduling policies in the queueing-networks literature.

Setting

A Leontief network (Definition 9.5) is an SPN whose input-output matrix RRR satisfies two assumptions: Assumption 9.1, that each activity has a unique buffer it draws material from (so i(j)i(j)i(j), the buffer served by activity jjj, is well-defined), and Assumption 9.2, that there is a nonnegative activity-level vector driving every buffer's net output rate strictly positive — the structural condition under which the network can be drained at all. The back-pressure (or, in the single-server, single-hop case, max-weight) control policy chooses, at each decision time, the feasible allocation β\betaβ of service rates that maximizes the bilinear objective p(β,z^)=z^⋅Rβp(\beta, \hat z) = \hat z \cdot R\betap(β,z^)=z^⋅Rβ, where z^\hat zz^ is the current vector of buffer contents. The "relaxed" version of the policy allows β\betaβ to range continuously over the allocation polytope A={β∈R+J:Aβ≤b}\mathcal A = \{\beta \in \mathbb R^J_+ : A\beta \le b\}A={β∈R+J​:Aβ≤b}; the "basic" version restricts to integer service-initiation decisions in a genuine SPN with discrete jobs. A network's static planning problem's optimal value γ∗<1\gamma^* < 1γ∗<1 is the subcriticality condition throughout this chapter, exactly as in missions II, III, and V.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.12 — maximal stability of relaxed back-pressure

Consider a Leontief network operating under the relaxed back-pressure control policy. If the static planning problem has optimal objective value γ∗<1\gamma^* < 1γ∗<1, then the corresponding fluid limit is stable, and hence, by Theorem 6.2 (mission III), the network's ambient Markov chain is positive recurrent. This is the chapter's payoff: back-pressure control needs no network-specific tuning — it stabilizes every Leontief network throughout its entire subcritical region, the same universal guarantee mission VI showed only for feedforward networks and HLSPS control specifically.

Supporting milestones

Lemma 9.3 and Proposition 9.4 develop the linear-algebraic machinery of basis matrices: any feasible material-balance vector can be re-expressed using only III "basic" activities (Lemma 9.3), and Assumption 9.2 holds if and only if some basis's associated matrix has spectral radius below one (Proposition 9.4) — the practical, checkable criterion for the network being well-posed at all. Proposition 9.6 shows the back-pressure optimization problem always admits a solution among the finitely many extreme allocations, licensing Remark 9.7's standing convention of restricting attention to that finite set. Lemma 9.10 shows a zzz-maximal extreme allocation can always be chosen to idle any activity whose buffer is currently empty — a fact that looks obvious but genuinely needs proof, because at the fluid level an activity can serve an instantaneously empty buffer at a positive rate (Section 9.5's tandem-model illustration). Theorem 9.8 is the chapter's characteristic fluid equation: under relaxed back-pressure control, the realized fluid service-rate derivative always achieves the bilinear maximum over the allocation polytope, at every regular point. Lemma 9.11 derives this from the raw ("pre-limit") stochastic dynamics — a strictly dominated allocation accrues no processing time — via a genuine limit-passage argument. Theorem 9.13 and Lemma 9.14 extend the maximal-stability guarantee from the relaxed policy to the basic (discrete-decision) policy, under the extra restriction that each server pool is a single server acting alone; this needs a residual-time strong law of large numbers (Lemma 9.14) to show that a server's decision to switch away from a dominated allocation happens quickly enough, relative to elapsed time, that the fluid limit is unaffected.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 9.12 is the book's formalization of the max-weight/back-pressure maximal-stability theorem originally due to Tassiulas and Ephremides (1992) for multi-hop packet radio networks, later popularized under the "back-pressure" name by Tassiulas (1995) and extended substantially by Dai and Lin (2005), on whose work this chapter is explicitly based. Unlike every policy considered in missions IV, VI, and VII, back-pressure requires no topology-specific insight to design or verify — it is defined uniformly from BBB, Γ\GammaΓ, AAA, and current buffer contents, and Theorem 9.12 certifies it stable for every Leontief network in its subcritical region. This universality is precisely what distinguishes it from HLSPS (mission VI), which needs the network to be feedforward or the policy to be head-of-the-line proportional-sampling before the same guarantee holds.

Formalizing it. A live prior-art check (GET /theorems?q=max-weight%20scheduling, q=back-pressure) returns no hits, so this mission formalizes the policy, its characteristic fluid equation, and both stability theorems entirely from scratch. SPNPlanningData, the input-output matrix R, and the static planning problem are restated from mission II's own apparatus; RegularPoint is restated from mission V's Definition 8.7.

Difficulty

The chapter's central subtlety is that "operating under back-pressure control" cannot be stated directly as a hypothesis on the fluid-limit path (D^,F^,T^,Z^)(\hat D,\hat F,\hat T,\hat Z)(D^,F^,T^,Z^) itself: the policy is defined in terms of the discrete, pre-limit decision process, and its fluid-level consequence — the characteristic equation (9.22) — is a genuine theorem (9.8), not a restatement of the policy's definition. Formalizing Theorem 9.8 naively by hypothesizing "T^\hat TT^ satisfies (9.22)" would make Lemma 9.11 (whose conclusion (9.28)-(9.31) is what Theorem 9.8's own proof literally invokes) circular relative to it. This mission instead hypothesizes Lemma 9.11's raw, pre-limit optimality condition (hYopt: a strictly dominated allocation accrues no processing time over any interval where domination persists) as the operational meaning of "following the back-pressure rule," and derives (9.28)-(9.31) from it as Lemma 9.11's genuine conclusion — Fed into Theorem 9.8 exactly as the book's own proof does ("By Lemma 9.11 and the fact that ∑βY^˙β(t)=1\sum_\beta \dot{\hat Y}_\beta(t) = 1∑β​Y^˙β​(t)=1..."). A second difficulty is Theorem 9.13's genuinely distinct proof from Theorem 9.12's: the basic (discrete) policy's fluid limit satisfying the same characteristic equation is not automatic, and needs the residual-time SLLN of Lemma 9.14 plus two extra structural hypotheses (each server pool is a single server, each activity uses exactly one server) that go beyond "basic vs. relaxed" and are stated explicitly rather than folded silently into the policy's name.

Formalization scope

SPNPlanningData, its input-output matrix R, and the static planning problem (SPPFeasible, IsOptimalSPPValue) are restated unmodified from mission II's own apparatus (drafts in this series do not import one another); RegularPoint is restated unmodified from mission V's Definition 8.7. "Basis" is named ActivityBasis, not Basis, to avoid colliding with Mathlib's vector-space Basis type — a deliberate departure from the book's own overloaded terminology, which its own text flags as "slightly narrower than [the] standard meaning in linear programming theory." ExtremeAllocations reuses Mathlib's Set.extremePoints directly rather than restating extreme-point theory from scratch, and Proposition 9.4's spectral-radius condition reuses Mathlib's own spectralRadius (Mathlib.Analysis.Normed.Algebra.Spectrum) rather than defining eigenvalues by hand. IsZMaximal (Definition 9.9) is phrased as "feasible and dominates every feasible alternative" rather than via an explicit sSup/⨆ expression, which sidesteps any Mathlib junk-value risk while remaining definitionally equivalent to "achieves the maximum" whenever a maximizer exists — the same convention this series has used since mission III. Theorem 9.8's hypothesis that the fluid limit "operates under relaxed back-pressure control" is packaged as Lemma 9.11's own conclusion (hTY/hYmono/hYsum/hYopt), matching the book's proof architecture exactly rather than re-deriving it inline. Theorem 9.13 states its two extra single-server hypotheses (hb1, hA01) explicitly as the mission's own BRIEF.md warns to. Lemma 9.14's condition (9.44) — quoted in the book's preparatory material for Theorem 9.13 rather than in the excerpt originally assembled for this lemma — was located directly in source.txt (p. 178, PDF p. 194) and confirmed verbatim, not reconstructed; its formalization (h944) matches the confirmed text exactly. The one acknowledged source inconsistency, noted by BRIEF.md itself, is that (9.56)'s printed left-hand side reads u_i(s,ω) where the surrounding proof otherwise uses t throughout — treated as a typesetting slip and formalized with t, as the lemma evidently intends. IsFluidModelSolution, IsRelaxedBPFluidSolution, RelaxedBPFluidStable, ActivityBasis, AllocationPolytope, and IsZMaximal are the primary reusable contributions; contributions completing the nine by sorry proofs, especially Lemma 9.11's limit-passage argument and Lemma 9.14's SLLN chain, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, Cambridge University Press (forthcoming), pre-publication draft 2020-4-2. http://spnbook.org
  • L. Tassiulas and A. Ephremides, "Stability properties of constrained queueing systems and scheduling policies for maximum throughput in multihop radio networks," IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 37 (1992), 1936–1948.
  • J. G. Dai and W. Lin, "Maximum pressure policies in stochastic processing networks," Operations Research 53 (2005), 197–218.
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Learnability, Stability and Uniform Convergence I: A Problem Is Learnable if and only if It Admits a Uniform-RO Stable Universal AERMResearch Paper

Motivation

In supervised binary classification, a hypothesis class is learnable if and only if it has uniform convergence, meaning that empirical risks converge to true risks uniformly over the class. When that holds, empirical risk minimisation (ERM) learns. This equivalence, due to Vapnik and Chervonenkis and extended to real-valued losses by Alon, Ben-David, Cesa-Bianchi and Haussler, is the usual starting point of statistical learning theory.

Vapnik's General Learning Setting is broader. It covers stochastic convex optimisation, clustering and density estimation, and in it the equivalence breaks down. Shalev-Shwartz, Shamir, Srebro and Sridharan (JMLR 11 (2010) 2635–2670) exhibit learnable problems with no uniform convergence, and learnable problems where ERM fails. So neither uniform convergence nor the success of ERM characterises learnability there, and something else has to. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, its Theorem 7: stability.

Timeline:

  • 1971–1995: Vapnik and Chervonenkis prove learnability ⇔ uniform convergence for binary classification. Vapnik (1995) introduces the General Learning Setting.
  • 2002: Bousquet and Elisseeff show that uniform stability of a learning rule implies generalization.
  • 2006: Mukherjee, Niyogi, Poggio and Rifkin show that, in the supervised setting, stability of ERM is necessary and sufficient for learnability.
  • 2009–2010: Shalev-Shwartz, Shamir, Srebro and Sridharan (COLT 2009, JMLR 2010) prove that, in the General Learning Setting, learnability is equivalent to the existence of a uniform-RO stable, universally asymptotic empirical risk minimiser (Theorem 7).

Setting

A learning problem consists of a hypothesis class H\mathcal HH (nonempty), an instance set Z\mathcal ZZ with a σ\sigmaσ-algebra, and an objective f:H×Z→Rf:\mathcal H\times\mathcal Z\to\mathbb Rf:H×Z→R with ∣f(h;z)∣≤B|f(h;z)|\le B∣f(h;z)∣≤B for all h,zh,zh,z. Given a probability distribution D\mathcal DD on Z\mathcal ZZ and an i.i.d. sample S=(z1,…,zm)∼DmS=(z_1,\dots,z_m)\sim\mathcal D^mS=(z1​,…,zm​)∼Dm, the following quantities are defined:

  • the risk is F(h)=Ez∼D[f(h;z)]F(h)=\mathbb E_{z\sim\mathcal D}[f(h;z)]F(h)=Ez∼D​[f(h;z)], and F∗=inf⁡hF(h)F^*=\inf_{h}F(h)F∗=infh​F(h);
  • the empirical risk is FS(h)=1m∑i=1mf(h;zi)F_S(h)=\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m f(h;z_i)FS​(h)=m1​∑i=1m​f(h;zi​), and FS(h^S)=inf⁡hFS(h)F_S(\hat h_S)=\inf_h F_S(h)FS​(h^S​)=infh​FS​(h) is the minimal empirical risk. Only the value is used; no minimiser need exist.

A learning rule AAA maps each sample SSS of each size mmm to a hypothesis A(S)A(S)A(S). A rate ε(m)\varepsilon(m)ε(m) is a non-increasing sequence tending to 000. For a rule AAA the paper defines the following properties:

  • AAA is consistent with rate εcons\varepsilon_{\rm cons}εcons​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[F(A(S))−F∗]≤εcons(m)\mathbb E_S[F(A(S))-F^*]\le\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m)ES​[F(A(S))−F∗]≤εcons​(m). It is universally consistent if this holds for every D\mathcal DD with the same rate. The problem is learnable (Definition 1) if a universally consistent rule exists.
  • AAA is an AERM (asymptotic empirical risk minimiser) with rate εerm\varepsilon_{\rm erm}εerm​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[FS(A(S))−FS(h^S)]≤εerm(m)\mathbb E_S[F_S(A(S))-F_S(\hat h_S)]\le\varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)ES​[FS​(A(S))−FS​(h^S​)]≤εerm​(m), and universally so if this holds for every D\mathcal DD.
  • AAA generalizes with rate εgen\varepsilon_{\rm gen}εgen​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[∣F(A(S))−FS(A(S))∣]≤εgen(m)\mathbb E_S[|F(A(S))-F_S(A(S))|]\le\varepsilon_{\rm gen}(m)ES​[∣F(A(S))−FS​(A(S))∣]≤εgen​(m).
  • With S(i)S^{(i)}S(i) the sample SSS with ziz_izi​ replaced by zi′z_i'zi′​, AAA is uniform-RO stable with rate εstable\varepsilon_{\rm stable}εstable​ (Definition 4) if, for all SSS, all replacements (z1′,…,zm′)(z_1',\dots,z_m')(z1′​,…,zm′​) and all z′∈Zz'\in\mathcal Zz′∈Z,
1m∑i=1m∣f(A(S(i));z′)−f(A(S);z′)∣≤εstable(m).\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl|f(A(S^{(i)});z')-f(A(S);z')\bigr|\le\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m).m1​i=1∑m​​f(A(S(i));z′)−f(A(S);z′)​≤εstable​(m).

Average-RO stability (Definition 5) is the in-expectation analogue, with the replacement point also serving as the test point.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

The problem is learnable if and only if there is a learning rule that is uniform-RO stable and universally an AERM. Quantitatively, if AAA is universally consistent with rate εcons\varepsilon_{\rm cons}εcons​, then some rule A′A'A′ is uniform-RO stable and universally AERM with

εstable(m)=2Bm,εerm(m)=3 εcons(⌊m1/4⌋)+8Bm,\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m)=\frac{2B}{\sqrt m},\qquad \varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)=3\,\varepsilon_{\rm cons}\bigl(\lfloor m^{1/4}\rfloor\bigr)+\frac{8B}{\sqrt m},εstable​(m)=m​2B​,εerm​(m)=3εcons​(⌊m1/4⌋)+m​8B​,

and conversely, a uniform-RO stable universal AERM is universally consistent with rate εstable(m)+εerm(m)\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m)+\varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)εstable​(m)+εerm​(m).

Milestones

These follow the order of the paper's proof.

  • Sufficiency: Utility Lemma 12 (a bounded sample mean deviates by at most B/mB/\sqrt mB/m​ in expectation), Lemma 11 (on-average generalization ⇔ average-RO stability), Claim 6 (uniform-RO ⇒ average-RO stability), Lemma 15 (an on-average generalizing AERM is consistent), and Theorem 8 (a stable AERM is consistent with rate εstable+εerm\varepsilon_{\rm stable}+\varepsilon_{\rm erm}εstable​+εerm​ and generalizes with rate εstable+2εerm+2B/m\varepsilon_{\rm stable}+2\varepsilon_{\rm erm}+2B/\sqrt mεstable​+2εerm​+2B/m​).
  • Necessity: Lemma 20 (every rule has a uniform-RO stable, 3B/m3B/\sqrt m3B/m​-generalizing version with consistency rate εcons(⌊m⌋)\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(\lfloor\sqrt m\rfloor)εcons​(⌊m​⌋)), Lemma 16, the Main Converse Lemma (E∣FS(h^S)−F∗∣≤2εcons(m′)+2B/m+2Bm′2/m\mathbb E|F_S(\hat h_S)-F^*|\le2\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m')+2B/\sqrt m+2Bm'^2/mE∣FS​(h^S​)−F∗∣≤2εcons​(m′)+2B/m​+2Bm′2/m for 2≤m′≤m/22\le m'\le m/22≤m′≤m/2), and Lemma 18 (under that bound, a consistent and generalizing rule is an AERM).

Significance

Theorem 7 shows that in the General Learning Setting, stability replaces uniform convergence as the notion that characterises learnability. It also says where to look for a learning rule: ERM may fail, but some AERM always works, and it must be stable. The rates are explicit and polynomial. Downstream, the paper uses Theorem 7 to prove Theorem 23 (randomised rules) and to design a generic learning algorithm (Theorem 25). Mission II of this series (Tikhonov-regularised ERM for stochastic convex optimisation) is a concrete instance of a stable AERM for a problem with no uniform convergence.

The theorem has been proved since 2010 but has not been formalized. The platform has the textbook side of the same authors' framework: Understanding Machine Learning Theorem 13.2, UnderstandingML.stability_identity, the replace-one identity behind Lemma 11, stated for hypotheses in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. The platform does not have learnability in the General Learning Setting, over an arbitrary hypothesis class, or the converse direction. That direction is the new content: learnability forces a stable AERM to exist.

Difficulty

The sufficiency direction is a chain of expectation identities. The necessity direction is harder. A universally consistent rule need not be an AERM, need not generalize and need not be stable (Example 2 of the paper), so it cannot simply be reused. ERM cannot be used either, since it can fail on learnable problems. The Main Converse Lemma is where universal consistency is used in full: the rule's guarantee has to be applied under a distribution other than D\mathcal DD, and a naive argument under D\mathcal DD alone fails (Example 1: consistency under one distribution does not imply generalization under it). Combining the lemmas into the stated rates requires choosing the auxiliary sample size and tracking every constant, including the regime of small mmm where Lemma 16's hypothesis 2≤m′≤m/22\le m'\le m/22≤m′≤m/2 cannot be met.

Formalization scope

Samples are Fin m → Z, the sample law Dm\mathcal D^mDm is Measure.pi, and S(i)S^{(i)}S(i) is Function.update S i (S' i). Learning rules have type (m : ℕ) → (Fin m → Z) → H, and every property is asserted for m≥1m\ge1m≥1. The minimal empirical risk and F∗F^*F∗ are real infima over the nonempty, bounded-below family, never values at a chosen minimiser. Rates are non-increasing on m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and tend to 000. ⌊m1/4⌋\lfloor m^{1/4}\rfloor⌊m1/4⌋ and ⌊m⌋\lfloor\sqrt m\rfloor⌊m​⌋ are Nat.sqrt (Nat.sqrt m) and Nat.sqrt m, the paper's εcons(m1/4)\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m^{1/4})εcons​(m1/4) read at an integer sample size. The paper's B=sup⁡∣f∣B=\sup|f|B=sup∣f∣ is replaced by any bound BBB (all rates increase in BBB).

The paper never discusses measurability. This formalization adds one standing assumption, identical across the series: each f(h;⋅)f(h;\cdot)f(h;⋅) is measurable, the minimal empirical risk S↦inf⁡hFS(h)S\mapsto\inf_hF_S(h)S↦infh​FS​(h) is measurable (true for countable H\mathcal HH, for example), and every learning rule, whether assumed or asserted to exist, has (S,z)↦f(A(S);z)(S,z)\mapsto f(A(S);z)(S,z)↦f(A(S);z) jointly measurable. Without this a non-measurable rule would have Bochner integrals equal to 000, and existence claims such as "some rule is a universal AERM" would be satisfied by junk. Every existential in the goal therefore produces a measurable rule, and learnability is quantified over measurable rules with the rate chosen before the distribution. Uniform-RO stability is pointwise over all samples, replacement vectors and test points; it is never replaced by the in-expectation Definition 5.

No statement is corrected. The proof of the converse in the paper calls A′A'A′ "2B/m2B/\sqrt m2B/m​-generalizing" where Lemma 20 gives 3B/m3B/\sqrt m3B/m​. The stated 8B/m8B/\sqrt m8B/m​ absorbs either value, so Theorem 7 is formalized as printed.

The definitions (risks, rules, consistency, AERM, generalization, the two RO-stability notions) are reusable by the other missions of this series and by any stability-based result in the General Learning Setting. Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, the measure-theoretic infrastructure they need (exchangeability of i.i.d. coordinates under Measure.pi, sub-sampling and restriction of product measures, the variance bound for bounded sample means), and the remaining results of Section 5 (Theorems 9 and 10, Lemmas 14 and 17).

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, O. Shamir, N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, Learnability, Stability and Uniform Convergence, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11 (2010) 2635–2670. https://jmlr.org/papers/v11/shalev-shwartz10a.html
  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2440-0
  • N. Alon, S. Ben-David, N. Cesa-Bianchi, D. Haussler, Scale-sensitive dimensions, uniform convergence, and learnability, Journal of the ACM 44(4) (1997) 615–631. https://doi.org/10.1145/263867.263927
  • O. Bousquet, A. Elisseeff, Stability and Generalization, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2 (2002) 499–526. https://jmlr.org/papers/v2/bousquet02a.html
  • S. Mukherjee, P. Niyogi, T. Poggio, R. Rifkin, Learning theory: stability is sufficient for generalization and necessary and sufficient for consistency of empirical risk minimization, Advances in Computational Mathematics 25 (2006) 161–193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10444-004-7634-z
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 13. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107298019
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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Processing Networks V: Lyapunov Stability Criteria for Fluid ModelsTextbook

Motivation

Mission III's Theorem 6.2 reduces SPN stability to a question about deterministic fluid model solutions: does every solution of a fixed system of equations get driven to the origin, uniformly in its starting size? Mission IV showed how to derive the extra, policy-specific equations a fluid model must satisfy. What remains is a method for proving that a system of fluid equations forces extinction — and the standard tool for that, across dynamical systems generally, is a Lyapunov function: a scalar-valued potential that decreases along every trajectory. J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison's Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming; cited here from the authors' pre-publication draft, 2020-4-2, http://spnbook.org) devotes Chapter 8 to making this method precise for fluid models, and to explaining exactly why it is easier to apply here than the analogous drift condition for the underlying Markov chain.

The chapter's calculus culminates in a genuinely delicate real-analysis fact: the ordinary "Lyapunov function decreases everywhere it should" argument needs the function to be differentiable, but fluid model solutions are typically only Lipschitz (hence differentiable only almost everywhere), and some Lyapunov functions used later in the book (Chapter 10's entropy function) are not even Lipschitz. The chapter's most general result, Lemma 8.11, resolves this by working with the upper-right Dini derivative rather than the ordinary one, following an approach whose subtlety is illustrated by a counterexample due to L. Massoulié when one of its three hypotheses is dropped.

Setting

Throughout this mission, (D,F,T,Z) (without hats) denotes an arbitrary solution of the fluid equations (6.1)-(6.6), restated from mission III (drafts in this series do not import one another). A function ggg is Lipschitz if it satisfies a Lipschitz bound on every bounded set, with a constant that may depend on the set; it is globally Lipschitz if one constant works everywhere. A point t>0t > 0t>0 is a regular point of a fluid model solution if all four components are differentiable there; because every solution is globally Lipschitz, the non-regular points form a Lebesgue-null set. A Lyapunov function for a fluid model is a Lipschitz function H:R+I→R+H : \mathbb{R}^I_+ \to \mathbb{R}_+H:R+I​→R+​ with H(0)=0H(0)=0H(0)=0 and H(z)≠0H(z) \ne 0H(z)=0 for z≠0z \ne 0z=0 — a positive-definite potential.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 8.11 — the general Dini-derivative extinction criterion

For f:R+→R+f : \mathbb{R}_+ \to \mathbb{R}_+f:R+​→R+​ continuous on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), with a locally bounded upper Dini derivative D+fD^+fD+f and D+f(t)≤−εD^+f(t) \le -\varepsilonD+f(t)≤−ε for a.e. ttt with f(t)>0f(t) > 0f(t)>0:

f(t)=0for t≥f(0)/ε.f(t) = 0 \quad \text{for } t \ge f(0)/\varepsilon.f(t)=0for t≥f(0)/ε.

This is the weakest natural target: it drops the Lipschitz requirement of Lemma 8.5 entirely, replacing it with only continuity plus a one-sided, locally bounded derivative condition, and Lemmas 8.5 and 8.6 are recovered as the special cases f=H∘Zf = H \circ Zf=H∘Z for HHH Lipschitz (respectively linear-type and square-root-type drift bounds).

Supporting milestones

Lemma 8.2 (composition of Lipschitz functions) and Lemma 8.3 (every fluid model solution is globally Lipschitz) supply the regularity Lemma 8.5 needs. Lemma 8.5 (linear drift bound) and Lemma 8.6 (square-root drift bound) are the two directly-applicable extinction criteria the book presents before generalizing to Lemma 8.11. Lemma 8.9 identifies a structural fact used in nearly every application: at a regular point, an empty buffer's fluid arrival and departure rates necessarily coincide. Lemma 8.10 gives the calculus of a pointwise maximum's derivative, needed for piecewise-linear Lyapunov functions. Theorem 8.12 is the chapter's worked illustration: the tandem queueing network's fluid model is stable under the standard load condition, proved with a linear Lyapunov function that (the chapter goes on to show) does not translate into a valid Markov-chain drift bound — the concrete illustration of why the fluid-model method earns its keep.

Significance

The result itself. Lemma 8.11 is the single tool every subsequent stability chapter of the book applies: feedforward and generalized Jackson networks, the Rybko–Stolyar boundary, back-pressure control, proportionally fair allocation (whose entropy Lyapunov function is exactly the non-Lipschitz case this lemma was built to handle), and task allocation all conclude fluid model stability via an instance of this criterion. Theorem 8.12's side observation — the same Lyapunov function that works effortlessly for the fluid model fails to give a Markov-chain drift bound at all — is the chapter's explicit argument for why fluid-model methodology is not just a convenience but a genuine technical advance over direct Markov-chain analysis.

Formalizing it. Searches for "Lyapunov function," "Dini derivative," and "Lipschitz continuous" (q=Lyapunov%20function, q=Dini%20derivative) surface no reusable extinction-criterion result; the one Lyapunov-adjacent hit, posDef_quadratic_form_lower_bound, is an unrelated quadratic-form bound. This mission is a from-scratch formalization of the fluid model's Lyapunov calculus, reusing Mathlib's own LipschitzOnWith/LipschitzWith substrate for Definition 8.1 rather than restating ordinary Lipschitz continuity, per this mission's own BRIEF.md recommendation.

Difficulty

The central difficulty is Lemma 8.11 itself: proving that a bound on the upper Dini derivative D+f(t)D^+f(t)D+f(t) (not the ordinary derivative) forces fff to decrease is genuinely subtler than the Lipschitz case, because D+fD^+fD+f is one-sided and may not correspond to an actual rate of change at every point. The book's own proof needs a technical intermediate inequality (8.8), f(b)−f(a)≤∫abD+ff(b)-f(a) \le \int_a^b D^+ff(b)−f(a)≤∫ab​D+f, and states explicitly that this can fail without the local upper-boundedness hypothesis (b) — citing a counterexample of L. Massoulié — so a formalization that dropped condition (b) as "obviously implied by continuity" would be proving a false generalization, not a faithful specialization. A second difficulty, specific to Lemma 8.5/8.6's formalization, is that the hypothesis "f˙(t)≤−ε\dot f(t) \le -\varepsilonf˙​(t)≤−ε for almost all ttt with Z(t)≠0Z(t)\ne 0Z(t)=0" implicitly presupposes f˙(t)\dot f(t)f˙​(t) exists almost everywhere (a fact Lemma 8.3 supplies, not something to assume outright) — stating the hypothesis as a universally quantified implication over any witnessing derivative avoids smuggling in an unearned existence claim.

Formalization scope

Mission III's fluid-equation apparatus is restated locally (per that mission's own note that later chunks cannot import its draft), unmodified. Definition 8.1's two Lipschitz notions (bounded-set-wise and global) are formalized via Mathlib's own LipschitzOnWith, generalized over arbitrary (pseudo)metric domain and codomain types so the same definition serves g:Rd→Rmg:\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}^mg:Rd→Rm and g:Rm→Rg:\mathbb{R}^m\to\mathbb{R}g:Rm→R uniformly — reusing Mathlib substrate rather than restating Definition 8.1's ε\varepsilonε-δ\deltaδ inequality from scratch, per BRIEF.md's explicit recommendation. The upper-right Dini derivative is restated inline (Appendix A.4 is out of series scope) via Filter.limsup along the right-neighborhood filter, and is used throughout Lemma 8.11 in place of the ordinary derivative — using deriv instead would be a strictly stronger, unfaithful hypothesis. Lemma 8.10's pointwise maximum is a supremum over the finite index type Fin d, always a genuine maximum with no junk-value risk. Theorem 8.12 restates the tandem queueing network's already-reduced fluid equations (8.11)-(8.15) directly, since Figure 1.1 belongs to Chapter 1, outside this mission series. A formalization that replaced Lemma 8.11's Dini-derivative hypotheses with ordinary-derivative ones, or that dropped condition (b)'s local bound, would each be an unfaithful strengthening or a false generalization — both ruled out here. The Lyapunov extinction criteria (lyapunov_extinction_linear, lyapunov_extinction_sqrt, dini_extinction_criterion) are the primary reusable contributions, intended for direct reuse (matching shape, since drafts do not import one another) by every later stability mission in the series; contributions completing the eight by sorry proofs are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, Cambridge University Press (forthcoming), pre-publication draft 2020-4-2. http://spnbook.org
  • L. Massoulié, "Structural properties of proportional fairness: stability and insensitivity," Annals of Applied Probability 17 (2007), 809–839.
  • J. G. Dai, "On positive Harris recurrence of multiclass queueing networks: a unified approach via fluid limit models," Annals of Applied Probability 5 (1995), 49–77.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Optimality of Generalized (s, S) Policies: A Generalized (s, S) Policy Is Optimal in Every Period of the Finite-Horizon Inventory ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

In a periodic-review inventory system a manager observes the stock level before ordering, decides how much to order, and then faces random demand. When ordering costs a fixed setup charge plus a constant price per unit, Scarf (1960) proved that an (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policy is optimal in every period of a finite-horizon problem: order up to SSS when the stock falls below sss, otherwise order nothing. Real ordering costs are often not of this form. Quantity discounts, a choice between production facilities with different setup and marginal costs, or a supplier whose price schedule falls with volume all give an ordering cost that is concave and increasing but not "setup plus linear". Karlin had analysed the single-period problem with such costs; Porteus (1971) gave the first multiperiod result with random demand.

Timeline:

  • Scarf (1960): (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) optimality for setup-plus-linear ordering cost, via KKK-convexity of the expected cost-to-go.
  • Veinott (1966): an alternative proof of (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) optimality under different conditions (quasi-convex one-period costs).
  • Porteus (1971): for concave increasing ordering costs and demand with a one-sided Pólya density, a generalized (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policy is optimal in every period; when the cost is piecewise linear with rrr pieces it is an (s,S)r(s,S)_r(s,S)r​ policy with at most rrr reorder levels.

Setting

The ordering cost c:[0,∞)→Rc : [0,\infty) \to \mathbb Rc:[0,∞)→R is concave, nondecreasing, and c(0)=0c(0) = 0c(0)=0. For z>0z > 0z>0, C2(z)C_2(z)C2​(z) is the supporting line of ccc at zzz with the smallest intercept, written as a pair (slope, intercept) (κ,K)(\kappa, K)(κ,K). The set of slopes that occur is CCC, and KκK_\kappaKκ​ is the intercept belonging to slope κ∈C\kappa \in Cκ∈C, so c(z)=min⁡κ∈C{Kκ+κz}c(z) = \min_{\kappa \in C}\{K_\kappa + \kappa z\}c(z)=minκ∈C​{Kκ​+κz} for z>0z > 0z>0. The limits (c0,K0)=lim⁡z↓0C2(z)(c_0, K_0) = \lim_{z \downarrow 0} C_2(z)(c0​,K0​)=limz↓0​C2​(z) and (c∞,K∞)=lim⁡z→∞C2(z)(c_\infty, K_\infty) = \lim_{z\to\infty} C_2(z)(c∞​,K∞​)=limz→∞​C2​(z) are assumed to exist.

Demands in successive periods are i.i.d. with density φ\varphiφ. A function φ\varphiφ is PFnPF_nPFn​ if 0<∫φ<∞0 < \int\varphi < \infty0<∫φ<∞ and det⁡[φ(xi−tj)]i,j≤k≥0\det[\varphi(x_i - t_j)]_{i,j\le k} \ge 0det[φ(xi​−tj​)]i,j≤k​≥0 for all k≤nk \le nk≤n and increasing x1<⋯<xkx_1<\dots<x_kx1​<⋯<xk​, t1<⋯<tkt_1<\dots<t_kt1​<⋯<tk​; it is a one-sided Pólya density if it is PFnPF_nPFn​ for every nnn, integrates to 111 and vanishes on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0). Exponential and Erlang densities are examples.

With holding-and-shortage cost mmm (PF-integrable, bounded below), terminal cost f0f_0f0​, discount factor 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1, and convolution (f∗φ)(y)=∫f(y−x)φ(x) dx(f*\varphi)(y) = \int f(y-x)\varphi(x)\,dx(f∗φ)(y)=∫f(y−x)φ(x)dx, the value functions are

hn=m∗φ+α fn−1∗φ,fn(x)=inf⁡y≥x{c(y−x)+hn(y)},h_n = m * \varphi + \alpha\, f_{n-1} * \varphi, \qquad f_n(x) = \inf_{y \ge x}\{c(y-x) + h_n(y)\},hn​=m∗φ+αfn−1​∗φ,fn​(x)=y≥xinf​{c(y−x)+hn​(y)},

where nnn counts the periods remaining. Yn(x)Y_n(x)Yn​(x) is the set of minimizers S≥xS \ge xS≥x. A generalized (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policy is a function yyy with y(x)=xy(x) = xy(x)=x for x≥sx \ge sx≥s and y(z)≥y(x)≥S≥sy(z) \ge y(x) \ge S \ge sy(z)≥y(x)≥S≥s for z<x<sz < x < sz<x<s: no order above sss, and below sss an order-up-to level that is at least SSS and does not increase with the starting stock.

Two function classes carry the argument. fff is non-KKK-decreasing on XXX if f(x)≤f(y)+Kf(x) \le f(y) + Kf(x)≤f(y)+K for x≤yx \le yx≤y in XXX. For K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, Ca(K)C_a(K)Ca​(K) consists of the piecewise continuous, PF-integrable functions with f(x)→∞f(x)\to\inftyf(x)→∞ as ∣x∣→∞|x|\to\infty∣x∣→∞ that are nonincreasing on (−∞,a)(-\infty,a)(−∞,a) or (−∞,a](-\infty,a](−∞,a] and non-KKK-decreasing on the rest of the line. C(K)C(K)C(K) is its continuous part. With Gκn=κ⋅+hnG_{\kappa n} = \kappa\cdot + h_nGκn​=κ⋅+hn​, the assumptions A1–A5 of §VI tie mmm and f0f_0f0​ to c0c_0c0​, c∞c_\inftyc∞​ and the KκK_\kappaKκ​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Under the standing assumptions and A1–A5, for every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 the convolution fn−1∗φf_{n-1}*\varphifn−1​∗φ exists and

∃ s,S, ∃ y generalized (s,S) policy:y(x)∈Yn(x)  ∀x∈R.\exists\, s, S,\ \exists\, y \text{ generalized } (s,S) \text{ policy}: \quad y(x) \in Y_n(x) \ \ \forall x \in \mathbb R.∃s,S, ∃y generalized (s,S) policy:y(x)∈Yn​(x)  ∀x∈R.

The statement fixes no numbers: sss and SSS depend on nnn and on the data.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 9: ⋃aCa(K)\bigcup_a C_a(K)⋃a​Ca​(K) equals the class of quasi-KKK-convex, piecewise continuous, PF-integrable functions tending to ∞\infty∞ as ∣x∣→∞|x| \to \infty∣x∣→∞.
  2. Lemma 1: every f∈C(K)f \in C(K)f∈C(K) has reals s≤Ss \le Ss≤S with SSS a global minimizer, f>f(S)+Kf > f(S) + Kf>f(S)+K on (−∞,s)(-\infty,s)(−∞,s), fff nonincreasing there, and fff non-KKK-decreasing on [s,∞)[s,\infty)[s,∞).
  3. Lemma 5: for continuous ggg, f(x)=∫0∞g(x−t)λe−λtdtf(x) = \int_0^\infty g(x-t)\lambda e^{-\lambda t}dtf(x)=∫0∞​g(x−t)λe−λtdt is C1C^1C1 with f′=λ(g−f)f' = \lambda(g-f)f′=λ(g−f).
  4. Lemma 6: g∗φg*\varphig∗φ is continuous and C1C^1C1 off a finite set for a one-sided Pólya φ\varphiφ.
  5. Lemma 10 and Theorem 1: f∈Ca(K)⇒f∗φ∈C(K)f \in C_a(K) \Rightarrow f*\varphi \in C(K)f∈Ca​(K)⇒f∗φ∈C(K), first for exponential φ\varphiφ, then for every one-sided Pólya density.
  6. Theorem 2: if every Gκn∈C(Kκ)G_{\kappa n} \in C(K_\kappa)Gκn​∈C(Kκ​) and every Yn(x)≠∅Y_n(x) \ne \emptysetYn​(x)=∅, a generalized (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policy is optimal in period nnn.
  7. Lemma 2: fn(x)≤fn(y)+c(y−x)f_n(x) \le f_n(y) + c(y-x)fn​(x)≤fn​(y)+c(y−x) for x≤yx \le yx≤y.
  8. Lemma 3: the inductive step producing the hypotheses of Theorem 2 from properties of fn−1f_{n-1}fn−1​.

Significance

The result extends (s,S)(s,S)(s,S)-type structure from setup-plus-linear to arbitrary concave increasing ordering costs, which covers quantity discounts and multi-facility production. When ccc is piecewise linear with rrr pieces, the optimal policy is an (s,S)r(s,S)_r(s,S)r​ policy described by at most rrr reorder points and order-up-to levels. That is a finite-dimensional family, which makes computing policies tractable. The class C(K)C(K)C(K) and its closure under Pólya convolution (Theorem 1) are statements about functions of one real variable, independent of the inventory model. Quasi-KKK-convexity extends both KKK-convexity and quasi-convexity (Lemma 8 of the paper).

The theorem is classical and proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known. Its appendix leaves several steps as "easily proved by contradiction", which a formal proof has to fill in. The platform has Bertsekas's KKK-convex (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) lemma (BertsekasDP.kconvex_sS_structure, a result about KKK-convex rather than C(K)C(K)C(K) functions), but no Pólya frequency functions, no quasi-KKK-convexity, and no concave-cost inventory model.

Difficulty

The obvious route copies Scarf: show that the cost-to-go is KKK-convex and that KKK-convexity survives taking expectations. With a concave ordering cost there is no single KKK, and the relevant functions GκnG_{\kappa n}Gκn​ are generally not KκK_\kappaKκ​-convex. The weaker property that does hold, membership in C(Kκ)C(K_\kappa)C(Kκ​), is not preserved by convolution with an arbitrary density. It is preserved by one-sided Pólya densities, and Theorem 1 is the step that shows this: exponential kernels come first (via the differential identity (23)), and the general case needs the Schoenberg representation of one-sided Pólya densities as limits of convolutions of exponentials. The second difficulty is combining the different slopes κ∈C\kappa \in Cκ∈C into one policy (Theorem 2). Separate (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) pairs for each κ\kappaκ do not by themselves give a monotone policy.

Formalization scope

All functions are ℝ → ℝ; the ordering cost is used only on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The demand density is a function, not a measure; convolution is the Lebesgue integral over R\mathbb RR. PFnPF_nPFn​ uses Matrix.det over Fin k. The value functions are defined by structural recursion on n:Nn : \mathbb Nn:N with f0f_0f0​ the terminal cost; hnh_nhn​ is used for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. Yn(x)Y_n(x)Yn​(x) is defined by the optimality inequality, never through the infimum. GκnG_{\kappa n}Gκn​ is defined by the paper's identity (7), κy+hn(y)\kappa y + h_n(y)κy+hn​(y). R−=(−∞,0)R^- = (-\infty,0)R−=(−∞,0) is open, and "increasing" is read as nondecreasing. Slopes in CCC are written κ\kappaκ to separate them from the cost function ccc.

Added hypotheses and conventions:

  • mmm piecewise continuous. The paper uses this without stating it (proof of Lemma 3). It is a hypothesis of Lemma 3 and Theorem 3.
  • Real-valued fnf_nfn​ in Lemma 2. Following the convention of §X, Lemma 2 assumes each infimum defining fnf_nfn​ is over a set bounded below.
  • Measurability of mmm and f0f_0f0​ (§X) is implied by their piecewise continuity and is not stated separately.

Lean returns 000 for an infimum over a set unbounded below and for the integral of a non-integrable function. The goal therefore concludes that fn−1∗φf_{n-1}*\varphifn−1​∗φ exists and that Yn(x)Y_n(x)Yn​(x) is nonempty (so the infimum is a minimum); it does not assume these. It also does not quantify over arbitrary functions satisfying a Bellman equation or over an arbitrary set-valued YYY. Everything is built from the data (c,m,φ,α,f0)(c, m, \varphi, \alpha, f_0)(c,m,φ,α,f0​). The class C(K)C(K)C(K) includes PF-integrability and coercivity, without which Lemma 1 fails.

Welcome contributions: Pólya frequency functions and the exponential special cases (the exponential density is PF∞PF_\inftyPF∞​), Leibniz-rule lemmas for exponential kernels, the theory of C(K)C(K)C(K) and quasi-KKK-convex functions (reusable for other inventory models), and a formal Schoenberg representation (Theorem 6 of the paper, cited there and needed for Theorem 1). Theorems 4 and 5 (nonstationary and partial-backlogging extensions) are not part of this mission.

Selected references

  • E. L. Porteus, On the Optimality of Generalized (s, S) Policies, Management Science 17(7):411–426, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.17.7.411
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., On the Optimality of (s, S) Inventory Policies: New Conditions and a New Proof, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 14(5):1067–1083, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1137/0114086
  • I. J. Schoenberg, On Pólya Frequency Functions I. The Totally Positive Functions and their Laplace Transforms, Journal d'Analyse Mathématique 1:331–374, 1951. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02790092
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Volume 1, Stanford University Press, 1968.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Control of Markov Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Matrices 4: The Dual of the Worst-Case Expectation over a Kullback-Leibler BallResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust Markov decision process replaces the unknown transition probabilities of an MDP by sets of plausible values and optimises against the worst case. Nilim and El Ghaoui (Oper. Res. 53 (2005)) showed that, when the uncertainty is rectangular (each row of each transition matrix varies independently in its own set), the robust problem is solved by a Bellman-type recursion. Each step of that recursion needs, for every state and action, the value of an inner problem: the largest expectation of the next-stage value vector over the uncertainty set of one transition row. The recursion is only as tractable as this inner problem.

The paper studies several uncertainty models built from statistical estimates of the transition rows. In the entropy model the uncertain row is any distribution within a prescribed Kullback–Leibler divergence of a nominal distribution. For this model the paper reduces the inner problem to the minimisation of a scalar convex function, which is then solved by bisection. Iyengar (Math. Oper. Res. 30 (2005)) obtained the same robust recursion independently, and the same scalar reduction is the basic computation in later KL-constrained distributionally robust optimisation. This mission formalizes that reduction and the properties of the scalar function that the paper derives from it.

Setting

Let n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 and let Δn={p∈Rn:p≥0, ∑jp(j)=1}\Delta_n=\{p\in\mathbb R^n : p\ge 0,\ \sum_j p(j)=1\}Δn​={p∈Rn:p≥0, ∑j​p(j)=1} be the probability simplex. For p,q∈Rnp,q\in\mathbb R^np,q∈Rn the Kullback–Leibler divergence is

D(p∥q)=∑jp(j)log⁡p(j)q(j),D(p\|q)=\sum_j p(j)\log\frac{p(j)}{q(j)},D(p∥q)=j∑​p(j)logq(j)p(j)​,

with 0log⁡0=00\log 0=00log0=0. Fix a nominal distribution q∈Δnq\in\Delta_nq∈Δn​ with q(j)>0q(j)>0q(j)>0 for every jjj, and a level β>0\beta>0β>0. The entropy uncertainty set is

P={p∈Δn:D(p∥q)≤β}.\mathcal P=\{p\in\Delta_n : D(p\|q)\le\beta\}.P={p∈Δn​:D(p∥q)≤β}.

For a vector v∈Rnv\in\mathbb R^nv∈Rn (in the MDP, the value function of the next stage), the inner problem (17) is

σP(v)=max⁡p∈PpTv.\sigma_{\mathcal P}(v)=\max_{p\in\mathcal P} p^{\mathsf T}v .σP​(v)=p∈Pmax​pTv.

The paper's scalar dual function (47) is, for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0,

σ(λ)=λlog⁡(∑jq(j) ev(j)/λ)+βλ.\sigma(\lambda)=\lambda\log\Big(\sum_j q(j)\,e^{v(j)/\lambda}\Big)+\beta\lambda .σ(λ)=λlog(j∑​q(j)ev(j)/λ)+βλ.

Write vmax⁡=max⁡jv(j)v_{\max}=\max_j v(j)vmax​=maxj​v(j) and Q(v)=∑j: v(j)=vmax⁡q(j)Q(v)=\sum_{j:\,v(j)=v_{\max}}q(j)Q(v)=∑j:v(j)=vmax​​q(j), the qqq-mass of the maximisers of vvv. The tilted distribution at λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is p∗(j)=q(j)ev(j)/λ/∑iq(i)ev(i)/λp^*(j)=q(j)e^{v(j)/\lambda}/\sum_i q(i)e^{v(i)/\lambda}p∗(j)=q(j)ev(j)/λ/∑i​q(i)ev(i)/λ.

In Lean, vectors are Fin n → ℝ, Δn\Delta_nΔn​ is stdSimplex ℝ (Fin n), and DDD, P\mathcal PP, σ\sigmaσ, p∗p^*p∗, vmax⁡v_{\max}vmax​, Q(v)Q(v)Q(v) are klDiv, klBall, dualFn, tiltedDist, vmax, maxMass in the namespace RobustMDP.EntropyInner.

Formalization targets

Goal: the dual of the inner problem (§6.2, Eq. (47), p. 791)

max⁡p∈PpTv=inf⁡λ>0σ(λ),\max_{p\in\mathcal P} p^{\mathsf T}v=\inf_{\lambda>0}\sigma(\lambda),p∈Pmax​pTv=λ>0inf​σ(λ),

with the maximum attained. This is kl_ball_inner_problem_dual. It holds for every nnn, every vvv, every q>0q>0q>0 in Δn\Delta_nΔn​ and every β>0\beta>0β>0.

Milestones

  1. §6.1: max⁡p∈ΔnD(p∥q)=max⁡i(−log⁡qi)\max_{p\in\Delta_n}D(p\|q)=\max_i(-\log q_i)maxp∈Δn​​D(p∥q)=maxi​(−logqi​), and for β≥max⁡i(−log⁡qi)\beta\ge\max_i(-\log q_i)β≥maxi​(−logqi​) the set P\mathcal PP is all of Δn\Delta_nΔn​ and the inner value is vmax⁡v_{\max}vmax​.
  2. Eq. (48): qTv+βλ≤σ(λ)≤vmax⁡+βλq^{\mathsf T}v+\beta\lambda\le\sigma(\lambda)\le v_{\max}+\beta\lambdaqTv+βλ≤σ(λ)≤vmax​+βλ for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0.
  3. §6.2, the optimal distribution: pTv−λD(p∥q)≤λlog⁡∑jq(j)ev(j)/λp^{\mathsf T}v-\lambda D(p\|q)\le\lambda\log\sum_j q(j)e^{v(j)/\lambda}pTv−λD(p∥q)≤λlog∑j​q(j)ev(j)/λ on Δn\Delta_nΔn​, with equality at p∗p^*p∗.
  4. §6.2, elimination of μ\muμ: min⁡μ[μ+βλ+λ∑jq(j)e(v(j)−μ)/λ−1]=σ(λ)\min_{\mu}\big[\mu+\beta\lambda+\lambda\sum_j q(j)e^{(v(j)-\mu)/\lambda-1}\big]=\sigma(\lambda)minμ​[μ+βλ+λ∑j​q(j)e(v(j)−μ)/λ−1]=σ(λ).
  5. Eq. (49): σ(λ)=vmax⁡+(β+log⁡Q(v))λ+o(λ)\sigma(\lambda)=v_{\max}+(\beta+\log Q(v))\lambda+o(\lambda)σ(λ)=vmax​+(β+logQ(v))λ+o(λ) as λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+.
  6. Eq. (50): σ(λ)=qTv+βλ+o(1)\sigma(\lambda)=q^{\mathsf T}v+\beta\lambda+o(1)σ(λ)=qTv+βλ+o(1) as λ→∞\lambda\to\inftyλ→∞.
  7. §6.3: if β≥−log⁡Q(v)\beta\ge-\log Q(v)β≥−logQ(v), then inf⁡λ>0σ=vmax⁡\inf_{\lambda>0}\sigma=v_{\max}infλ>0​σ=vmax​ and the inner value is vmax⁡v_{\max}vmax​.

Significance

The goal turns an nnn-dimensional optimisation over a nonpolyhedral convex set into a one-dimensional convex minimisation whose objective costs O(n)O(n)O(n) to evaluate. Combined with the bisection bracket from (48) and the behaviour at 000 from (49), it gives the paper's O(nlog⁡(vmax⁡/δ))O(n\log(v_{\max}/\delta))O(nlog(vmax​/δ)) cost per inner problem (§6.4), and hence the per-step cost of the robust Bellman recursion under entropy uncertainty. Milestone 7 identifies exactly when the uncertainty set is large enough that the robust step ignores the nominal model; unlike the cruder threshold of milestone 1, it depends on vvv.

The result is proved in the paper modulo "standard duality arguments". The paper gives no proof of the duality step itself, and its expansions (49)–(50) are proved only in outline in Appendix C. No formal proof of any of these statements is known to exist; Mathlib has the measure-theoretic Donsker–Varadhan ingredients but not the finite, constrained dual stated here. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the whole chain, with the attainment questions (which side is a max, which is only an infimum) settled explicitly.

Difficulty

The inequality max⁡PpTv≤σ(λ)\max_{\mathcal P}p^{\mathsf T}v\le\sigma(\lambda)maxP​pTv≤σ(λ) for every λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is the routine half. The obstacle is the reverse inequality. The paper appeals to Lagrangian strong duality under a Slater condition, but the Lagrangian dual function equals σ(λ)\sigma(\lambda)σ(λ) only for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 it is vmax⁡v_{\max}vmax​, and the dual infimum may be approached only as λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+. A proof that looks for a minimiser λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0 and a matching primal point p∗p^*p∗ fails in precisely the regime β≥−log⁡Q(v)\beta\ge-\log Q(v)β≥−logQ(v) of milestone 7, where no such λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ exists and the primal optimum sits on the face of the simplex spanned by the maximisers of vvv. The strong-duality argument must also handle the boundary of Δn\Delta_nΔn​, where D(⋅∥q)D(\cdot\|q)D(⋅∥q) is not differentiable.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin n → ℝ; Δn\Delta_nΔn​ is stdSimplex ℝ (Fin n). D(p∥q)D(p\|q)D(p∥q) is a local finite sum with Lean's log⁡0=0\log 0=0log0=0, which gives 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0; Mathlib's measure-valued InformationTheory.klDiv is not used.
  • Standing hypotheses in every theorem: q∈Δnq\in\Delta_nq∈Δn​, q(j)>0q(j)>0q(j)>0 for all jjj, and β>0\beta>0β>0, as in §6.1. No restriction on vvv is imposed; the "without loss of generality v≥0v\ge0v≥0" of the paper's §5 is not assumed here.
  • The primal "max" is stated with IsGreatest (attained, since the KL ball is compact). The paper's "min⁡λ>0σ(λ)\min_{\lambda>0}\sigma(\lambda)minλ>0​σ(λ)" is an infimum, stated with IsGLB over {σ(λ):λ>0}\{\sigma(\lambda):\lambda>0\}{σ(λ):λ>0}: it is not attained when β≥−log⁡Q(v)\beta\ge-\log Q(v)β≥−logQ(v).
  • dualFn is total in λ\lambdaλ and equals 000 at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 (division by zero), not the paper's σ(0)=vmax⁡\sigma(0)=v_{\max}σ(0)=vmax​. Every statement uses λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; the value at 000 appears as the one-sided limit of (49). Accordingly (48) is stated for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0.
  • vmax⁡v_{\max}vmax​ is ⨆ j, v j, the attained maximum over the finite nonempty index set; max⁡i(−log⁡qi)\max_i(-\log q_i)maxi​(−logqi​) likewise.
  • (49) is stated as a limit along 𝓝[>] 0 together with a little-o remainder; (50) as a limit along atTop.
  • Milestone 7 uses the non-strict condition β≥−log⁡Q(v)\beta\ge-\log Q(v)β≥−logQ(v) of the paper's first sentence, which contains the strict version of its second.
  • Trivializing formalizations are excluded: the statements quantify over all nnn, vvv and qqq, so a constant vvv, n=1n=1n=1, or the whole-simplex case of milestone 1 does not discharge the goal.

Useful infrastructure: a finite Gibbs variational inequality, compactness of the KL ball, and convexity and one-sided asymptotics of the log-sum-exp function in the temperature parameter. These are reusable for any KL-constrained robust optimisation mission. Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of the goal that avoid a general strong-duality theorem, and the sharper O(λe−t/λ)O(\lambda e^{-t/\lambda})O(λe−t/λ) remainder of Appendix C are all welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Nilim and L. El Ghaoui, Robust Control of Markov Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Matrices, Operations Research 53(5):780–798, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0216
  • G. N. Iyengar, Robust Dynamic Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2):257–280, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • M. D. Donsker and S. R. S. Varadhan, Asymptotic evaluation of certain Markov process expectations for large time, I, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 28(1):1–47, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160280102
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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Processing Networks II: Subcriticality is Necessary for StabilityTextbook

Motivation

Before a queueing network's stability can be studied in any depth, a much cruder question has to be settled: is stability even possible for the given arrival rates and service capacities, under any control policy at all? For a single M/M/1 queue the answer is the familiar λ<μ\lambda < \muλ<μ, but a general stochastic processing network (SPN) — many buffers, many activities, servers that can be pooled or shared across job classes — has no single scalar "utilization" to compare against a threshold. J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison's Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming; cited here from the authors' pre-publication draft, 2020-4-2, http://spnbook.org) answers this with a linear program: the static planning problem, first formulated by Harrison (2000). This mission formalizes the theorem that answers the crude question in one direction — no control policy can stabilize a network outside the region that program identifies — which is why, as the book puts it, "throughout the remainder of this book, attention is essentially restricted to subcritical networks."

Setting

An SPN has III buffers, indexed by i∈Ii \in \mathcal{I}i∈I, and JJJ activities, indexed by j∈Jj \in \mathcal{J}j∈J. Its first-order data — the quantities that matter for a capacity calculation, as opposed to full stochastic detail — are: the I×JI \times JI×J material requirement matrix BBB (BijB_{ij}Bij​ = number of class-iii items one type-jjj service consumes), the I×JI \times JI×J mean output matrix Γ\GammaΓ (its jjjth column is the expected output vector of a type-jjj service), the mean service times mj>0m_j > 0mj​>0, the K×JK \times JK×J capacity consumption matrix AAA (server pool kkk against activity jjj), and the server-pool capacities b∈R+Kb \in \mathbb{R}_+^Kb∈R+K​. From these,

R:=(B−Γ)M−1,M:=diag⁡(m1,…,mJ),R := (B - \Gamma)M^{-1}, \qquad M := \operatorname{diag}(m_1, \dots, m_J),R:=(B−Γ)M−1,M:=diag(m1​,…,mJ​),

so that RijR_{ij}Rij​ is the long-run average rate at which activity jjj depletes buffer iii's content.

Given an arrival-rate vector λ∈R+I\lambda \in \mathbb{R}_+^Iλ∈R+I​, the static planning problem (SPP) is the linear program

γ∗(λ):=min⁡x≥0, γ γs.t.Rx=λ,Ax≤γb,\gamma^\ast(\lambda) := \min_{x \ge 0,\, \gamma} \ \gamma \quad \text{s.t.} \quad Rx = \lambda, \quad Ax \le \gamma b,γ∗(λ):=x≥0,γmin​ γs.t.Rx=λ,Ax≤γb,

whose decision variable xjx_jxj​ is a long-run average activity rate and whose objective γ\gammaγ upper-bounds every server pool's utilization. The network is subcritical at λ\lambdaλ if γ∗(λ)<1\gamma^\ast(\lambda) < 1γ∗(λ)<1, and the subcritical region is Λ:={λ:γ∗(λ)<1}\Lambda := \{\lambda : \gamma^\ast(\lambda) < 1\}Λ:={λ:γ∗(λ)<1}.

An SPN is stable (Definition 3.6, mission I) when its ambient Markov chain is positive recurrent, equivalently has a unique stationary distribution, equivalently its buffer contents converge in distribution to a non-defective limit. This mission's chapter portion (Chapters 4-5) also treats three extensions used elsewhere in the book: a Markovian arrival process replacing independent Poisson arrivals; alternate routing with immediate commitment, where arrivals must be routed into an eligible buffer at the instant they arrive, with routing rates constrained by an augmented version of the SPP; and processor sharing (PS) networks, whose service discipline falls outside the book's ordinary relaxed-control framework and is instead analyzed through an equivalent head-of-line (EHL) model built to have the same generator.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2 — only subcritical networks can be stable

(baseline stochastic assumptions) ∧ (Markov representation) ∧ (SPN stable)  ⟹  λ∈Λ.\text{(baseline stochastic assumptions)} \ \wedge \ \text{(Markov representation)} \ \wedge \ \text{(SPN stable)} \implies \lambda \in \Lambda.(baseline stochastic assumptions) ∧ (Markov representation) ∧ (SPN stable)⟹λ∈Λ.

This is the weakest target that captures the chapter's content: it asserts nothing about which policy achieves stability, or whether subcriticality is sufficient (Chapters 6 onward answer that, case by case, and Chapter 5 itself gives two counterexamples where it is not) — only that subcriticality is unconditionally necessary.

Further results (milestones)

Proposition 4.1 (a strong law of large numbers for class-level arrivals under randomized routing), Proposition 4.4 (PS-network stability reduces to EHL-model stability), Proposition 5.1 (for a unitary network, subcriticality reduces to the classical load condition ρ<b\rho < bρ<b), and Corollaries 5.4-5.6 (the same necessity conclusion under a Markovian arrival process, under alternate routing, and its consequence for maximally stable policies).

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 5.2 converts "can this network be stabilized at all?" from an open-ended search over control policies into a single linear-program feasibility check on first-order data alone. Corollary 5.6 turns this into the standard proof template every later chapter uses: exhibit a policy whose implementation does not reference λ\lambdaλ, show it is stable throughout the subcritical region, and conclude maximal stability — without having to separately characterize the true stability region Λ∗\Lambda^\astΛ∗, which the book calls "a deep mathematical problem" in general.

Formalizing it. A search of the platform for "processing network," "static planning problem," and "linear program" returned no hits: the SPN-specific static planning problem — its decision variables xxx tied to a network's material-balance matrix RRR and capacity matrix AAA — has no existing counterpart, though the platform's linear-optimization field (16 missions) has general LP duality substrate a future proof of Proposition 5.1 or Theorem 5.2 could draw on. This mission is a from-scratch formalization of the SPP, the subcritical region, and the necessity theorem.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt states Theorem 5.2 as a claim about the buffer-contents process Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) directly. This fails to separate cleanly from the proof, because the actual argument passes through an auxiliary quantity — the stationary mean x:=Eπ[N(0)]x := \mathbb{E}_\pi[N(0)]x:=Eπ​[N(0)] under the chain's (unique, by stability) stationary distribution π\piπ — that has no meaning outside a specific proof strategy. The formalization instead states the goal purely in terms of the data (R,A,b)(R, A, b)(R,A,b) and the hypothesis of stability, exactly as the book's own statement does, leaving xxx's construction to the (currently sorry) proof. A second difficulty is Corollary 5.4's Markovian arrival process: naively reusing BaselineAssumptions with a non-Poisson arrival process is impossible, since Poisson-ness is a mandatory structural field of that definition, not an optional hypothesis — the corollary needs its own hypothesis structure that changes exactly the one clause Assumption 2.1(a) contributes and nothing else.

Formalization scope

Buffers and activities are Fin I, Fin J; matrices are Matrix over ℝ. The subcritical region is defined via the optimal SPP value γ∗\gamma^\astγ∗, formalized with Mathlib's IsLeast (attained infimum, matching the book's own "γ∗≤1\gamma^\ast \le 1γ∗≤1 iff xxx exists" phrasing, which presupposes attainment) rather than a bare existential — a formalization using, say, sInf would silently commit to junk values on an infeasible or unbounded LP and would not obviously match the book's own usage of γ∗\gamma^\astγ∗ as literally attained. The basic SPN model's full state-process construction (Sections 2.3-2.4) is not re-derived from scratch here; Theorem 5.2 instead takes the structural facts its own proof invokes — the capacity constraint AN(t)≤bAN(t) \le bAN(t)≤b (Eq. 2.11) and the material-requirement matrix BBB — as explicit data, reusing mission I's BaselineAssumptions and MarkovRepresentation for the stochastic and Markov-chain apparatus. Proposition 4.4's shared- generator fact between a PS network and its EHL model (the actual content the book's construction of Section 4.4 establishes) is likewise taken as an explicit hypothesis rather than rebuilt from the refined-class/phase-type machinery of Eqs. (4.19)-(4.29); reconstructing that machinery from scratch, or reproving Proposition 4.1's SLLN from the chain's strong Markov property at regeneration times, are both welcome future contributions. A formalization that stated Theorem 5.2 with Λ\LambdaΛ replaced by an unconstrained existential (dropping the LP structure entirely) would trivialize the chapter's actual content — the LP-feasibility characterization is what makes Λ\LambdaΛ checkable, and is preserved here in full.

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, Cambridge University Press (forthcoming), pre-publication draft 2020-4-2. http://spnbook.org
  • J. M. Harrison, "Brownian models of open processing networks: canonical representation of workload," Annals of Applied Probability 10 (2000), 75-103.
  • J. G. Dai and W. Lin, "Maximum pressure policies in stochastic processing networks," Operations Research 53 (2005), 197-218.
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Adversarially Robust Generalization Requires More Data 4: Robust Learning from One Thresholded Sample in the Bernoulli ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

Classifiers trained to high standard accuracy can be fooled by small, deliberately chosen perturbations of their inputs, so-called adversarial examples (Szegedy et al., 2014; Goodfellow et al., 2015). Training methods that aim at robustness against perturbations bounded in the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ norm reach high robust accuracy on the training set while robust test accuracy stays far lower, a gap much larger than the standard generalization gap (Madry et al., 2018). Schmidt, Santurkar, Tsipras, Talwar and Mądry (arXiv:1804.11285) ask whether this gap is intrinsic: does learning a robust classifier need more data than learning an accurate one?

They answer with two simple data distributions. In a Gaussian model the robust sample complexity is larger than the standard one by a factor of order d\sqrt dd​, for every learning algorithm. In a Bernoulli model on the hypercube, linear classifiers suffer the same penalty, but a nonlinear classifier does not. This mission formalizes the second half of that picture: in the Bernoulli model, thresholding the input and then applying the linear classifier learned from one single sample is robust against every ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ perturbation of size less than 111.

Setting

Points live in Rd\mathbb R^dRd with the Euclidean inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​. Labels are y∈{±1}y\in\{\pm1\}y∈{±1}. A binary classifier is any map f:Rd→{±1}f:\mathbb R^d\to\{\pm1\}f:Rd→{±1}, and for w∈Rdw\in\mathbb R^dw∈Rd the linear classifier is fw(x)=sgn⁡(⟨w,x⟩)f_w(x)=\operatorname{sgn}(\langle w,x\rangle)fw​(x)=sgn(⟨w,x⟩).

The (θ⋆,τ)(\theta^\star,\tau)(θ⋆,τ)-Bernoulli model. Fix a sign vector θ⋆∈{±1}d\theta^\star\in\{\pm1\}^dθ⋆∈{±1}d and a bias τ∈(0,12]\tau\in(0,\tfrac12]τ∈(0,21​]. A sample (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is drawn by choosing yyy uniformly in {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1} and then, independently for each coordinate iii, setting xi=yθi⋆x_i=y\theta^\star_ixi​=yθi⋆​ with probability 12+τ\tfrac12+\tau21​+τ and xi=−yθi⋆x_i=-y\theta^\star_ixi​=−yθi⋆​ with probability 12−τ\tfrac12-\tau21​−τ. So x∈{±1}dx\in\{\pm1\}^dx∈{±1}d, and each coordinate carries a weak signal of strength 2τ2\tau2τ about the label.

Errors. The classification error of fff is P(x,y)[f(x)≠y]\mathbb P_{(x,y)}[f(x)\ne y]P(x,y)​[f(x)=y]. For ε∈R\varepsilon\in\mathbb Rε∈R the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ ball is B∞ε(x)={x′∈Rd:∥x′−x∥∞≤ε}\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x)=\{x'\in\mathbb R^d:\|x'-x\|_\infty\le\varepsilon\}B∞ε​(x)={x′∈Rd:∥x′−x∥∞​≤ε}, and the ℓ∞ε\ell_\infty^\varepsilonℓ∞ε​-robust classification error of fff is

P(x,y)[∃ x′∈B∞ε(x): f(x′)≠y].\mathbb P_{(x,y)}\big[\exists\,x'\in\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x):\ f(x')\ne y\big].P(x,y)​[∃x′∈B∞ε​(x): f(x′)=y].

The adversary may move xxx anywhere in the ball, including off the hypercube.

Thresholding. The thresholding map T:Rd→RdT:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dT:Rd→Rd is T(x)i=+1T(x)_i=+1T(x)i​=+1 if xi≥0x_i\ge0xi​≥0 and T(x)i=−1T(x)_i=-1T(x)i​=−1 otherwise. The classifier studied is fw^∘Tf_{\hat w}\circ Tfw^​∘T, with w^=yx\hat w=yxw^=yx computed from one training sample (x,y)(x,y)(x,y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 8)

There is a universal constant c>0c>0c>0 such that, whenever τ≥c d−1/4\tau\ge c\,d^{-1/4}τ≥cd−1/4 and (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is one sample of the model with w^=yx\hat w=yxw^=yx,

P(x,y)[∃ ε<1: RobErrε(fw^∘T)>1100] ≤ exp⁡ ⁣(−τ2d2).\mathbb P_{(x,y)}\Big[\exists\,\varepsilon<1:\ \mathrm{RobErr}_\varepsilon\big(f_{\hat w}\circ T\big)>\tfrac1{100}\Big]\ \le\ \exp\!\Big(-\frac{\tau^2d}{2}\Big).P(x,y)​[∃ε<1: RobErrε​(fw^​∘T)>1001​] ≤ exp(−2τ2d​).

The constant ccc is left existential; only the scaling τ≳d−1/4\tau\gtrsim d^{-1/4}τ≳d−1/4 is fixed. The failure probability is the one the paper proves for the same classifier.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 24 (p. 31): P[⟨z,θ⋆⟩≤2τd−2dlog⁡(1/δ)]≤δ\mathbb P\big[\langle z,\theta^\star\rangle\le2\tau d-\sqrt{2d\log(1/\delta)}\big]\le\deltaP[⟨z,θ⋆⟩≤2τd−2dlog(1/δ)​]≤δ for z=xyz=xyz=xy.
  2. Lemma 25 (p. 31): for w^=z/∥z∥2\hat w=z/\|z\|_2w^=z/∥z∥2​, P[⟨w^,θ⋆⟩≤τd]≤exp⁡(−τ2d/2)\mathbb P[\langle\hat w,\theta^\star\rangle\le\tau\sqrt d]\le\exp(-\tau^2d/2)P[⟨w^,θ⋆⟩≤τd​]≤exp(−τ2d/2).
  3. Lemma 26 (p. 32): for a fixed unit www with ⟨w,2τθ⋆⟩≥0\langle w,2\tau\theta^\star\rangle\ge0⟨w,2τθ⋆⟩≥0, P[⟨w,z⟩≤0]≤exp⁡(−2τ2⟨w,θ⋆⟩2)\mathbb P[\langle w,z\rangle\le0]\le\exp(-2\tau^2\langle w,\theta^\star\rangle^2)P[⟨w,z⟩≤0]≤exp(−2τ2⟨w,θ⋆⟩2).
  4. Theorem 27 (p. 32): with probability at least 1−exp⁡(−τ2d/2)1-\exp(-\tau^2d/2)1−exp(−τ2d/2), fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ has classification error at most exp⁡(−2τ4d)\exp(-2\tau^4d)exp(−2τ4d).
  5. Corollary 28 (p. 33): if τ≥(log⁡(1/β)/(2d))1/4\tau\ge(\log(1/\beta)/(2d))^{1/4}τ≥(log(1/β)/(2d))1/4, then with probability at least 1−exp⁡(−τ2d/2)1-\exp(-\tau^2d/2)1−exp(−τ2d/2), fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ has classification error at most β\betaβ.
  6. Thresholding identity (§2.2, p. 7): T(B∞ε(x))={x}T(\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x))=\{x\}T(B∞ε​(x))={x} for every x∈{±1}dx\in\{\pm1\}^dx∈{±1}d and 0≤ε<10\le\varepsilon<10≤ε<1.

Significance

Together with the lower bound for linear classifiers in the same model (Theorem 9 of the paper), Theorem 10 shows that robust sample complexity depends on the hypothesis class and on the data distribution, not only on the perturbation size: a fixed nonlinear preprocessing step closes a gap that no linear classifier can close. The paper's Gaussian model shows the opposite behaviour, where every learner pays the d\sqrt dd​ penalty, so the two models together separate "robustness is information-theoretically expensive" from "robustness is expensive for a restricted class". The authors also report that an explicit thresholding layer improves robust training on MNIST, which motivates the model.

The result is proved in the paper. To the platform's knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it yields a complete, finite and self-contained robust-learning upper bound, the single-sample standard-generalization bounds of Theorem 27 and Corollary 28 as reusable statements, and a worked instance of one-sided Hoeffding bounds for weighted sums of hypercube coordinates.

Difficulty

The concentration steps are standard, but the natural first approach to the goal fails: a bound on the classification error of the linear classifier fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ says nothing about its robust error, and for ε\varepsilonε of order τ\tauτ the robust error of every linear classifier is close to 12\tfrac1221​. The goal concerns the nonlinear classifier fw^∘Tf_{\hat w}\circ Tfw^​∘T, whose robustness rests on the data lying exactly on the hypercube and on the adversary's budget being below 111; neither fact is visible to an argument about linear classifiers. A second difficulty is bookkeeping: the paper uses three forms of the estimator (yxyxyx, z/∥z∥2z/\|z\|_2z/∥z∥2​, yx/∥x∥2yx/\|x\|_2yx/∥x∥2​), a training sample and a test sample with the same name, and a failure event that must hold for all ε<1\varepsilon<1ε<1 at once.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Labels and hypercube coordinates are Bool (+1↔+1\leftrightarrow+1↔ true). Because the model is finite, every probability is a finite sum of the weights 12∏i(12±τ)\tfrac12\prod_i(\tfrac12\pm\tau)21​∏i​(21​±τ); no measure theory is involved. Conventions committed to:

  • coordinates of xxx are independent given yyy (the paper's "sampling each coordinate", as its proofs use it);
  • 0<τ≤120<\tau\le\tfrac120<τ≤21​ in every theorem, since 12−τ\tfrac12-\tau21​−τ must be a probability;
  • sgn⁡(0)\operatorname{sgn}(0)sgn(0) is taken as +1+1+1 (a tie is classified +1+1+1); TTT sends 000 to +1+1+1, as printed;
  • the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ ball is written coordinatewise, never as the Euclidean ball;
  • "with probability at least 1−q1-q1−q, the error is at most β\betaβ" is stated as "the failure event has probability at most qqq";
  • the goal's "for any ε<1\varepsilon<1ε<1" is inside the event, one good sample for all ε\varepsilonε;
  • added hypotheses, each forced by a degenerate case where the printed statement is false: d≥1d\ge1d≥1 in Lemma 24, β>0\beta>0β>0 in Corollary 28, ε≥0\varepsilon\ge0ε≥0 in the thresholding identity.

A formalization that bounds only the standard error of fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​, drops TTT, uses the Euclidean ball, or lets the estimator see θ⋆\theta^\starθ⋆ would be a different and easier statement; the goal rules each of these out.

A complete development needs one-sided Hoeffding bounds for weighted sums of independent bounded variables on a finite product space (Mathlib has the measure-theoretic version, ProbabilityTheory.measure_sum_ge_le_of_iIndepFun with hasSubgaussianMGF_of_mem_Icc) and the transfer between the finite-sum encoding and a product measure. Both are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and a bridge lemma from bprob to Measure.pi, are welcome. The other missions of this series (Gaussian lower bound, Bernoulli lower bound for linear classifiers, Gaussian upper bound) formalize the paper's remaining main results.

Selected references

  • L. Schmidt, S. Santurkar, D. Tsipras, K. Talwar, A. Mądry, Adversarially Robust Generalization Requires More Data, NeurIPS 2018; arXiv:1804.11285v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.11285
  • A. Madry, A. Makelov, L. Schmidt, D. Tsipras, A. Vladu, Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks, ICLR 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06083
  • C. Szegedy et al., Intriguing properties of neural networks, ICLR 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199
  • I. Goodfellow, J. Shlens, C. Szegedy, Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples, ICLR 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.6572
  • P. Rigollet, J.-C. Hütter, High Dimensional Statistics, lecture notes, MIT, 2017. https://math.mit.edu/~rigollet/PDFs/RigNotes17.pdf
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Supply Chain Theory of Factoring and Reverse Factoring 2: The Retailer's Optimal Reverse Factoring Payment ExtensionResearch Paper

Motivation

Large retailers pay their suppliers weeks or months after delivery, and small suppliers fill the gap with short-term finance. In factoring the supplier sells the receivable to a factor for immediate cash; in reverse factoring the retailer arranges the program with a bank, which pays the supplier early at a rate priced on the retailer's credit rating. Retailers commonly attach a condition: the supplier must accept a longer payment term. Wuttke et al. (Journal of Operations Management, 2019) report that buyers extended payment terms by 54 days on average on adopting reverse factoring and that many suppliers delayed adoption; Corsten (2010) reports suppliers resisting a program because of the demanded payment delay (both as cited by Kouvelis and Xu, pp. 6082–6083). How long an extension a retailer can demand, and what it gains by demanding it, is therefore a practical design question.

Kouvelis and Xu (Management Science 67(10), 2021) answer it inside a Stackelberg supply chain model with credit and liquidity risk. This mission formalizes their answer, Proposition 6 of §5.3: the retailer's optimal payment extension when she keeps the existing wholesale price.

Setting

Demand D≥0D\ge0D≥0 has density fff, distribution function FFF and Fˉ=1−F\bar F=1-FFˉ=1−F; f>0f>0f>0 on [0,Z][0,\mathbb Z][0,Z] with Z≤+∞\mathbb Z\le+\inftyZ≤+∞ the upper end of the support, fff is continuous there, the mean is finite, and the failure rate z(ξ)=f(ξ)/Fˉ(ξ)z(\xi)=f(\xi)/\bar F(\xi)z(ξ)=f(ξ)/Fˉ(ξ) is strictly increasing. Write S(q)=∫0qFˉ(ξ) dξS(q)=\int_0^q\bar F(\xi)\,d\xiS(q)=∫0q​Fˉ(ξ)dξ for expected sales and k(q)=S(q)/Fˉ(q)k(q)=S(q)/\bar F(q)k(q)=S(q)/Fˉ(q).

A retailer (the leader) sets a wholesale price www, and a capital-constrained supplier (the follower) chooses a production quantity q≥0q\ge0q≥0; the retail price ppp exceeds the unit cost ccc. Each firm j∈{s,r}j\in\{s,r\}j∈{s,r} has a credit rating Cj∈(Cmin⁡,Cmax⁡)C_j\in(C_{\min},C_{\max})Cj​∈(Cmin​,Cmax​), a default probability ρj=ρ(Cj)∈[0,1]\rho_j=\rho(C_j)\in[0,1]ρj​=ρ(Cj​)∈[0,1] with ρ\rhoρ strictly decreasing, and an interest premium ηj=η(Cj)>0\eta_j=\eta(C_j)>0ηj​=η(Cj​)>0 with η\etaη decreasing. The lead time is t1t_1t1​, the payment term t2t_2t2​, and λs,λr≥0\lambda_s,\lambda_r\ge0λs​,λr​≥0 are the liquidity risks.

Under a post-shipment scheme with coefficient Λ\LambdaΛ the supplier earns

π(q;w)=(1−ρs)(Λe−λst1wS(q)−c q eηst1),\pi(q;w)=(1-\rho_s)\bigl(\Lambda e^{-\lambda_s t_1}wS(q)-c\,q\,e^{\eta_s t_1}\bigr),π(q;w)=(1−ρs​)(Λe−λs​t1​wS(q)−cqeηs​t1​),

with ΛF=(1−ρr)+(1−ρs)−eηst2\Lambda_{\mathcal F}=(1-\rho_r)+(1-\rho_s)-e^{\eta_s t_2}ΛF​=(1−ρr​)+(1−ρs​)−eηs​t2​ (recourse factoring), ΛN=e−ηrt2(1−ρr)\Lambda_{\mathcal N}=e^{-\eta_r t_2}(1-\rho_r)ΛN​=e−ηr​t2​(1−ρr​) (non-recourse factoring) and ΛR=e−ηr(t2+τ)\Lambda_{\mathcal R}=e^{-\eta_r(t_2+\tau)}ΛR​=e−ηr​(t2​+τ) (reverse factoring with payment extension τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0). The retailer earns Π=e−λst1(1−ρr)(p−w)S(q)\Pi=e^{-\lambda_s t_1}(1-\rho_r)(p-w)S(q)Π=e−λs​t1​(1−ρr​)(p−w)S(q) under factoring and

ΠR(w,τ)=e−λst1(1−ρr)(2−e−λrτ)(p−w)S(qR)\Pi_{\mathcal R}(w,\tau)=e^{-\lambda_s t_1}(1-\rho_r)(2-e^{-\lambda_r\tau})(p-w)S(q_{\mathcal R})ΠR​(w,τ)=e−λs​t1​(1−ρr​)(2−e−λr​τ)(p−w)S(qR​)

under reverse factoring, where qRq_{\mathcal R}qR​ is the supplier's best response. Its first-order condition is wFˉ(qR)=cR(τ)=c e(ηs+λs)t1+ηr(t2+τ)w\bar F(q_{\mathcal R})=c_{\mathcal R}(\tau)=c\,e^{(\eta_s+\lambda_s)t_1+\eta_r(t_2+\tau)}wFˉ(qR​)=cR​(τ)=ce(ηs​+λs​)t1​+ηr​(t2​+τ) (Eq. (12)).

Before reverse factoring, the supplier uses the better of the two factoring schemes. By Proposition 4 this is non-recourse, with equilibrium (wN∗,qN∗)(w^*_{\mathcal N},q^*_{\mathcal N})(wN∗​,qN∗​), when CN<Cs≤C1\mathbb C_{\mathcal N}<C_s\le\mathbb C_1CN​<Cs​≤C1​, and recourse, with (wF∗,qF∗)(w^*_{\mathcal F},q^*_{\mathcal F})(wF∗​,qF∗​), when Cs>CF∨C1C_s>\mathbb C_{\mathcal F}\vee\mathbb C_1Cs​>CF​∨C1​. The retailer keeps the existing wholesale price wsw_sws​ and solves problem (13): maximize ΠR(ws,τ)\Pi_{\mathcal R}(w_s,\tau)ΠR​(ws​,τ) over τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0, subject to the supplier's acceptance (his reverse factoring profit is at least his existing one). CRmax⁡\mathbb C^{\max}_{\mathcal R}CRmax​ is the rating at which ΛF=e−ηrt2\Lambda_{\mathcal F}=e^{-\eta_r t_2}ΛF​=e−ηr​t2​, and Ξ[0,z](x)=max⁡{0,min⁡{z,x}}\Xi_{[0,z]}(x)=\max\{0,\min\{z,x\}\}Ξ[0,z]​(x)=max{0,min{z,x}}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6

(i) If Cs≥CRmax⁡C_s\ge\mathbb C^{\max}_{\mathcal R}Cs​≥CRmax​, reverse factoring is dominated by recourse factoring. (ii) If CN<Cs<CRmax⁡\mathbb C_{\mathcal N}<C_s<\mathbb C^{\max}_{\mathcal R}CN​<Cs​<CRmax​, reverse factoring should be offered with

τR∗=Ξ[0,τs](τ0∗),λrk(q)z(q)+ηr=2ηreλrτ0∗,wsFˉ(q)=cR(τ0∗),\tau^*_{\mathcal R}=\Xi_{[0,\tau_s]}(\tau^*_0),\qquad \lambda_r k(q)z(q)+\eta_r=2\eta_r e^{\lambda_r\tau^*_0},\quad w_s\bar F(q)=c_{\mathcal R}(\tau^*_0),τR∗​=Ξ[0,τs​]​(τ0∗​),λr​k(q)z(q)+ηr​=2ηr​eλr​τ0∗​,ws​Fˉ(q)=cR​(τ0∗​),

where τs=−ηr−1ln⁡(1−ρr)\tau_s=-\eta_r^{-1}\ln(1-\rho_r)τs​=−ηr−1​ln(1−ρr​) with ws=wN∗w_s=w^*_{\mathcal N}ws​=wN∗​ in the non-recourse case, and τs=−ηr−1ln⁡[(1−ρr)+(1−ρs)−eηst2]−t2\tau_s=-\eta_r^{-1}\ln[(1-\rho_r)+(1-\rho_s)-e^{\eta_s t_2}]-t_2τs​=−ηr−1​ln[(1−ρr​)+(1−ρs​)−eηs​t2​]−t2​ with ws=wF∗w_s=w^*_{\mathcal F}ws​=wF∗​ in the recourse case.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Eq. (12): the supplier's best response under reverse factoring.
  2. Proposition 4: which factoring scheme is in force before reverse factoring.
  3. §5.3, τs\tau_sτs​: acceptance holds exactly on [0,τs][0,\tau_s][0,τs​].
  4. §5.3, τ0∗\tau^*_0τ0∗​: the retailer's unconstrained profit is unimodal around τ0∗\tau^*_0τ0∗​.

A follow-on item states Corollary 3(ii): the retailer's profit strictly increases, and the supplier's profit is unchanged when τ0∗≥τs\tau^*_0\ge\tau_sτ0∗​≥τs​.

Significance

Proposition 6 is the paper's prescription for program design. It says which suppliers should be offered reverse factoring: every supplier below the indifference rating CRmax⁡\mathbb C^{\max}_{\mathcal R}CRmax​ and above the non-recourse feasibility threshold. It also gives the extension in closed form, the unconstrained optimum clipped to the supplier's acceptance limit. Two consequences are drawn in the paper: non-recourse factoring is dominated once the extension is optimized, and reverse factoring may leave the supplier exactly as well off as before, so it is not necessarily a win-win (Corollary 3).

The proofs are in the paper's Online Appendix B and have not been machine-checked. A formal proof here produces a checked derivation of the projection formula from the model's primitives. It covers the strict-IFR analysis of the follower's response, the reduction of the acceptance constraint to an interval, and the unimodality of the retailer's objective. The same analysis of the pull game with an effective unit cost recurs across the supply chain finance literature.

Difficulty

The retailer's objective depends on τ\tauτ through two opposing channels: the liquidity factor 2−e−λrτ2-e^{-\lambda_r\tau}2−e−λr​τ increases, while expected sales S(qR(τ))S(q_{\mathcal R}(\tau))S(qR​(τ)) decrease because the supplier's effective cost rises. Neither factor is concave in τ\tauτ, and the objective need not be concave. The natural move, to set the derivative to zero and call the root a maximum, proves nothing without a sign analysis. That analysis needs the monotonicity of k⋅zk\cdot zk⋅z along the implicitly defined response qR(τ)q_{\mathcal R}(\tau)qR​(τ), which is where strict IFR enters. The acceptance constraint compares the supplier's profits in two different games (reverse factoring at τ\tauτ against the existing equilibrium). Reducing it to τ≤τs\tau\le\tau_sτ≤τs​ requires the supplier's best-response profit as an explicit increasing function of his quantity. Identifying the existing equilibrium requires Proposition 4, whose "adopted" compares equilibrium profits of two Stackelberg games.

Formalization scope

The model is a single Lean structure SupplyChainFactoring.Extension.Model. Demand is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with a density fff, and Z\mathbb ZZ is an extended real. "Continuous p.d.f. with f>0f>0f>0 in [0,Z][0,\mathbb Z][0,Z]" is read as continuity on [0,Z][0,\mathbb Z][0,Z], with f=0f=0f=0 outside the support. Credit functions ρ,η\rho,\etaρ,η are real functions constrained on (Cmin⁡,Cmax⁡)(C_{\min},C_{\max})(Cmin​,Cmax​). The finance derivations behind the profit functions (Eqs. (1), (5), (6), Lemma 1) are not formalized: the profit functions are the model.

Readings of informal words, each also recorded in the item's Formalization Note:

  • Best response: a maximizer of the supplier's profit over q≥0q\ge0q≥0; equilibrium: a best response pair from which no nonnegative wholesale price with a best response gives the retailer more. Neither is defined through first-order conditions.
  • Feasible: some w≥0w\ge0w≥0 with a best response gives the retailer positive profit; adopted (Proposition 4): feasible, with equilibrium supplier profit at least (non-recourse) or strictly above (recourse) the other feasible scheme's.
  • Thresholds "the unique value of CsC_sCs​ that satisfies …" are hypotheses in exactly that form; cN=pc_{\mathcal N}=pcN​=p and cF=pc_{\mathcal F}=pcF​=p are cross-multiplied because ΛF\Lambda_{\mathcal F}ΛF​ can be ≤0\le0≤0.
  • In (13) www is fixed at wsw_sws​ (§5.3's first sentence, footnote 23). πR∗\pi^*_{\mathcal R}πR∗​ is the supplier's best-response profit under reverse factoring at (ws,τ)(w_s,\tau)(ws​,τ), and max⁡{πF∗,πN∗}\max\{\pi^*_{\mathcal F},\pi^*_{\mathcal N}\}max{πF∗​,πN∗​} is his profit in the existing equilibrium.
  • Dominated (Proposition 6(i)): at every τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0 and every www, the supplier's reverse factoring best-response profit is at most his recourse one. Should be offered (6(ii)): τR∗\tau^*_{\mathcal R}τR∗​ solves (13) and the retailer's profit is at least her existing equilibrium profit.
  • τ0∗\tau^*_0τ0∗​ is a hypothesis: it and some q∈(0,Z)q\in(0,\mathbb Z)q∈(0,Z) solve the paper's two equations (the paper does not argue existence). Its optimality "without the nonnegativity constraint" is stated as unimodality of ΠR\Pi_{\mathcal R}ΠR​ on the set of real τ\tauτ with cR(τ)<wc_{\mathcal R}(\tau)<wcR​(τ)<w.
  • Always increases (Corollary 3(ii)) is strict; may remain unchanged when τ0∗≥τs\tau^*_0\ge\tau_sτ0∗​≥τs​ is read as "is unchanged whenever τ0∗≥τs\tau^*_0\ge\tau_sτ0∗​≥τs​".

Three misprints of the paper are corrected: Ξ[0,z](x)=0\Xi_{[0,z]}(x)=0Ξ[0,z]​(x)=0 "if x<zx<zx<z" is read as "if x<0x<0x<0"; "the retailer's maximization problem in (16)" refers to (13); the middle line of the ΠR\Pi_{\mathcal R}ΠR​ display on p. 6082 carries a stray factor www, and the last line is used.

The hypotheses on τ0∗\tau^*_0τ0∗​ cannot be met when λr=0\lambda_r=0λr​=0, and the goal then says nothing about the case, as in the paper. The existing equilibrium, τs\tau_sτs​ and τ0∗\tau^*_0τ0∗​ are never free parameters: τs\tau_sτs​ is the paper's explicit formula, and the reduction of acceptance to τ≤τs\tau\le\tau_sτ≤τs​ is a milestone to be proved, not an assumption. Every logarithm is applied to a quantity the hypotheses force positive. A formalization that assumed acceptance equivalent to τ≤τs\tau\le\tau_sτ≤τs​ or assumed unimodality would be trivial and is excluded.

The pull game with an effective cost has the same structure as Cachon's pull contract without salvage value (platform items CachonPushPull.*), but those items assume IGFR demand with a salvage value, so they are not reused. Reusable infrastructure welcome: the strict-IFR lemmas (kkk, k⋅zk\cdot zk⋅z and k(q)−qk(q)-qk(q)−q increasing) and the explicit best response of a newsvendor-type follower.

Selected references

  • P. Kouvelis, F. Xu, A Supply Chain Theory of Factoring and Reverse Factoring, Management Science 67(10):6071–6088, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3788
  • G. P. Cachon, The Allocation of Inventory Risk in a Supply Chain: Push, Pull, and Advance-Purchase Discount Contracts, Management Science 50(2):222–238, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0190
  • D. A. Wuttke, E. S. Rosenzweig, H. S. Heese, An Empirical Analysis of Supply Chain Finance Adoption, Journal of Operations Management 65(3):242–261, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1023
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Operations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Are Call Center and Hospital Arrivals Well Modeled by Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes?: Combining k Equal Subintervals of a Linear Arrival Rate Bounds the Degree of Nonhomogeneity by C/kResearch Paper

Motivation

Arrival processes to call centers and hospital emergency departments are routinely modeled as nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs): Poisson processes whose arrival rate varies over the day. Staffing and queueing models built on this assumption are only as good as the assumption itself, so practitioners test it on data. The standard test, going back to Brown et al. (2005, doi:10.1198/016214504000001808), divides the day into short subintervals, treats the rate as constant on each, rescales the arrival times within each subinterval to [0,1][0,1][0,1], combines all the rescaled data, and applies a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test of uniformity.

Kim and Whitt (2014, doi:10.1287/msom.2014.0490) ask when this piecewise-constant approximation is justified. If the true rate is not constant on a subinterval, the rescaled arrival times are not uniform, and with enough data the KS test rejects the Poisson hypothesis even when the process really is an NHPP. Section 3 of the paper quantifies this effect through a single number, the degree of nonhomogeneity, and shows how it behaves when the interval is cut into kkk equal pieces. This mission formalizes that section's exact computations for a linear arrival rate.

Setting

An arrival rate function λ\lambdaλ on an interval [0,T][0,T][0,T], T>0T > 0T>0, is nonnegative, integrable, and strictly positive except at finitely many points. Its cumulative arrival rate is

Λ(t)=∫0tλ(s) ds.\Lambda(t) = \int_0^t \lambda(s)\,ds .Λ(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.

Conditionally on nnn arrivals in [0,T][0,T][0,T], the arrival times of an NHPP with rate λ\lambdaλ, divided by TTT, are distributed as the order statistics of nnn independent random variables on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with the conditional cdf

F(t)=Λ(tT)Λ(T),0≤t≤1.F(t) = \frac{\Lambda(tT)}{\Lambda(T)}, \qquad 0 \le t \le 1 .F(t)=Λ(T)Λ(tT)​,0≤t≤1.

The degree of nonhomogeneity is the Kolmogorov distance of FFF from the uniform cdf,

D=sup⁡0≤t≤1∣F(t)−t∣.D = \sup_{0 \le t \le 1} |F(t) - t| .D=0≤t≤1sup​∣F(t)−t∣.

It is zero exactly when λ\lambdaλ is constant, and it is the limit of the KS test statistic as the amount of data grows.

For k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, divide [0,T][0,T][0,T] into kkk subintervals of length T/kT/kT/k. For 1≤j≤k1 \le j \le k1≤j≤k the jjj-th subinterval has cumulative rate Λj(t)=Λ((j−1)T/k+t)−Λ((j−1)T/k)\Lambda_j(t) = \Lambda((j-1)T/k + t) - \Lambda((j-1)T/k)Λj​(t)=Λ((j−1)T/k+t)−Λ((j−1)T/k), conditional cdf Fj(t)=Λj(tT/k)/Λj(T/k)F_j(t) = \Lambda_j(tT/k)/\Lambda_j(T/k)Fj​(t)=Λj​(tT/k)/Λj​(T/k), and share of arrivals pj=(Λ(jT/k)−Λ((j−1)T/k))/Λ(T)p_j = (\Lambda(jT/k) - \Lambda((j-1)T/k))/\Lambda(T)pj​=(Λ(jT/k)−Λ((j−1)T/k))/Λ(T). The data of all subintervals, each rescaled to [0,1][0,1][0,1] and combined, have the conditional cdf F=∑j=1kpjFjF = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j F_jF=∑j=1k​pj​Fj​ (LEMMA 1).

The linear arrival rate is λ(t)=a+bt\lambda(t) = a + btλ(t)=a+bt with b≥0b \ge 0b≥0 and a≥0a \ge 0a≥0, not identically zero. When a>0a > 0a>0 its relative slope is r=b/ar = b/ar=b/a; on the jjj-th subinterval the relative slope is rj=b/λ((j−1)T/k)r_j = b/\lambda((j-1)T/k)rj​=b/λ((j−1)T/k).

In the Lean development these are cumRate, condCdf, degree, subCum, subCdf, weight, mixCdf, linRate and subSlope, in the namespace NHPPArrivals.LinearRate.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 5, combining equally spaced subintervals

For the linear rate, there is a constant CCC such that for every k≥1k \ge 1k≥1

D=sup⁡0≤t≤1∣F(t)−t∣=∑j=1kpjDj=∑j=1kpjsup⁡0≤t≤1∣Fj(t)−t∣,(20)D = \sup_{0 \le t \le 1}|F(t) - t| = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j D_j = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j \sup_{0 \le t \le 1}|F_j(t) - t|, \tag{20}D=0≤t≤1sup​∣F(t)−t∣=j=1∑k​pj​Dj​=j=1∑k​pj​0≤t≤1sup​∣Fj​(t)−t∣,(20)

with, if a>0a > 0a>0,

D=∑j=1kpj rjT/k8+4rjT/k,(21)D = \sum_{j=1}^k \frac{p_j\, r_j T/k}{8 + 4 r_j T/k}, \tag{21}D=j=1∑k​8+4rj​T/kpj​rj​T/k​,(21)

and, if a=0a = 0a=0,

D=p14+∑j=2kpj/(j−1)8+4/(j−1),(22)D = \frac{p_1}{4} + \sum_{j=2}^k \frac{p_j/(j-1)}{8 + 4/(j-1)}, \tag{22}D=4p1​​+j=2∑k​8+4/(j−1)pj​/(j−1)​,(22)

and in both cases D≤C/kD \le C/kD≤C/k. The constant CCC may depend on aaa, bbb and TTT, but not on kkk; its value is left open, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. LEMMA 1, (17): for a general rate, the rescaled combined data have cdf ∑jpjFj\sum_j p_j F_j∑j​pj​Fj​, and the pjp_jpj​ form a probability vector.
  2. THEOREM 4, a>0a > 0a>0, (14), (16): F(t)=(tT+r(tT)2/2)/(T+rT2/2)F(t) = (tT + r(tT)^2/2)/(T + rT^2/2)F(t)=(tT+r(tT)2/2)/(T+rT2/2) and D=∣F(1/2)−1/2∣=rT/(8+4rT)D = |F(1/2) - 1/2| = rT/(8 + 4rT)D=∣F(1/2)−1/2∣=rT/(8+4rT).
  3. THEOREM 4, a=0a = 0a=0, (15): F(t)=t2F(t) = t^2F(t)=t2 and D=1/4D = 1/4D=1/4.
  4. LEMMA 1, (18): closed forms of Λj\Lambda_jΛj​, FjF_jFj​, pjp_jpj​, rjr_jrj​ when a>0a > 0a>0.
  5. LEMMA 1, (19): closed forms of Λj\Lambda_jΛj​, FjF_jFj​, pjp_jpj​, rjr_jrj​ when a=0a = 0a=0.
  6. THEOREM 5, (20): D=∑jpjDjD = \sum_j p_j D_jD=∑j​pj​Dj​ for one fixed kkk.

Significance

The result gives a quantitative criterion for the piecewise-constant approximation: for a linear rate, cutting the interval into kkk equal pieces reduces the degree of nonhomogeneity of the combined data by a factor of order 1/k1/k1/k. Since the KS critical value at sample size nnn is of order 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​, this tells a practitioner how fine the subintervals must be, relative to the amount of data, before a KS test of the Poisson hypothesis stops rejecting merely because the rate varies within subintervals. The paper's later THEOREM 6 and its practical guidelines (§3.4, §3.6) rest on these formulas.

The results are proved in the paper by direct calculation; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a verified library of the conditional-cdf calculus for NHPPs on an interval (the conditional cdf, its degree of nonhomogeneity, the subinterval decomposition) and the exact linear-rate formulas that the testing literature cites.

Difficulty

The computations are elementary, but two steps are not immediate. First, the supremum of ∣F(t)−t∣|F(t) - t|∣F(t)−t∣ over [0,1][0,1][0,1] is a supremum of a nonsmooth function; showing that it is attained at t=1/2t = 1/2t=1/2 requires knowing the sign of F(t)−tF(t) - tF(t)−t on the whole interval, and for the combined cdf it requires that all the pieces FjF_jFj​ attain their maximal deviation at the same point, which is special to linear rates. For a general rate the naive identity D=∑jpjDjD = \sum_j p_j D_jD=∑j​pj​Dj​ fails: the sup of a sum is at most the sum of the sups, with equality only when the maximizers coincide. Second, LEMMA 1 is a statement about the law of a rescaled random variable (the fractional part of kX/TkX/TkX/T), which requires splitting a measure along the kkk subintervals and handling their boundary points.

Formalization scope

Rates are real functions λ:R→R\lambda : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rλ:R→R; only their values on [0,T][0,T][0,T] enter. Λ\LambdaΛ is an interval integral, subintervals are indexed by j∈{1,…,k}j \in \{1, \dots, k\}j∈{1,…,k} with k,jk, jk,j natural numbers cast to reals, and (j−1)(j-1)(j−1) is computed in R\mathbb RR. All quotients are real divisions; the hypotheses of every statement (T>0T > 0T>0, k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, b≥0b \ge 0b≥0, and a>0a > 0a>0 or b>0b > 0b>0 for the linear rate; integrability, nonnegativity and a finite zero set for a general rate) make every denominator Λ(T)\Lambda(T)Λ(T) and Λj(T/k)\Lambda_j(T/k)Λj​(T/k) positive. b≥0b \ge 0b≥0 is the paper's standing assumption of §3.3; excluding a=b=0a = b = 0a=b=0 is §3.2's requirement that the rate be positive except at finitely many points. The degree of nonhomogeneity is sSup of the image of [0,1][0,1][0,1], and every statement that uses it also asserts that the supremum is attained, so no default value of sSup can make a statement true. The constant CCC of THEOREM 5 is quantified before kkk; choosing it after kkk would make the bound empty. The statements are about the general definitions of (17) applied to λ(t)=a+bt\lambda(t) = a + btλ(t)=a+bt, not about the closed forms (18)–(19), which are separate milestones. The formula for rjr_jrj​ in (19) is stated for 2≤j≤k2 \le j \le k2≤j≤k only: r1=b/λ(0)r_1 = b/\lambda(0)r1​=b/λ(0) is undefined when a=0a = 0a=0.

The Poisson process itself is not formalized. LEMMA 1's "i.i.d. random variables" is the paper's THEOREM 1 (the conditioning property) applied to each arrival; LEMMA 1 is stated for the law of one arrival time, the probability measure with density λ/Λ(T)\lambda/\Lambda(T)λ/Λ(T) on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. THEOREM 1, THEOREMS 2–3 and COROLLARY 1 (limits of the empirical cdf and of the KS statistic) are out of scope: they need a point-process layer, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and KS critical values, none of which exists in Mathlib. THEOREM 6 is out of scope because the paper gives only a sketch comparing DDD with the KS critical value.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, general lemmas on sups of ∣F(t)−t∣|F(t) - t|∣F(t)−t∣ for convex cdfs, and the measure-splitting argument of LEMMA 1, which is reusable for any subinterval-based test of the Poisson hypothesis.

Selected references

  • S.-H. Kim and W. Whitt, Are call center and hospital arrivals well modeled by nonhomogeneous Poisson processes?, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 16(3):464–480, 2014. doi:10.1287/msom.2014.0490
  • L. Brown, N. Gans, A. Mandelbaum, A. Sakov, H. Shen, S. Zeltyn, L. Zhao, Statistical analysis of a telephone call center: a queueing-science perspective, Journal of the American Statistical Association 100(469):36–50, 2005. doi:10.1198/016214504000001808
  • F. J. Massey, The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for goodness of fit, Journal of the American Statistical Association 46(253):68–78, 1951. doi:10.1080/01621459.1951.10500769
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Competitive Paging Algorithms III: No Randomized Paging Algorithm Is Better than H_k-CompetitiveResearch Paper

Motivation

Paging is the problem of managing a two-level memory: a cache holds kkk of the nnn pages a program uses, every request must find its page in the cache, and a request to a page outside the cache (a page fault) forces the algorithm to bring the page in and evict another. An on-line algorithm chooses what to evict without seeing future requests. Sleator and Tarjan (CACM 1985) measured on-line paging algorithms against the optimal off-line algorithm, which knows the whole request sequence, and showed that no deterministic on-line algorithm can be within a factor smaller than kkk of it.

Randomization changes that picture. Fiat, Karp, Luby, McGeoch, Sleator and Young (J. Algorithms 1991; arXiv:cs/0205038) gave a randomized algorithm, the marking algorithm, whose expected number of faults is within 2Hk2H_k2Hk​ of the optimum, where Hk=1+12+⋯+1k≈ln⁡kH_k = 1 + \tfrac12 + \dots + \tfrac1k \approx \ln kHk​=1+21​+⋯+k1​≈lnk. This mission formalizes the other half of their paper's picture: no randomized paging algorithm can do better than HkH_kHk​. The bound says that the logarithmic behaviour is not an artefact of one algorithm but a property of the problem.

Timeline:

  • 1985 — Sleator and Tarjan: deterministic paging algorithms have competitive factor at least kkk; LRU and FIFO achieve kkk.
  • 1988 — Karlin, Manasse, Rudolph and Sleator (Algorithmica 3, 1988) introduce the term competitive; Manasse, McGeoch and Sleator (STOC 1988; J. Algorithms 1990) extend it to randomized algorithms and pose the kkk-server problem, of which paging is the uniform-metric case.
  • 1991 — Fiat et al.: the marking algorithm is 2Hk2H_k2Hk​-competitive, and no randomized algorithm is better than HkH_kHk​-competitive (Theorem 4 and Corollary 5 of the paper). Raghavan gave an alternative proof of the lower bound through Yao's minimax principle.
  • 1991 — McGeoch and Sleator give an HkH_kHk​-competitive randomized paging algorithm (Algorithmica 6, 1991), so the lower bound is tight.

Setting

Let MMM be a set of nnn vertices with the uniform metric: any two distinct vertices are at distance 111. A configuration of kkk servers is a map C:{1,…,k}→MC : \{1,\dots,k\} \to MC:{1,…,k}→M; server sss sits at C(s)C(s)C(s), and a vertex is covered when some server sits on it. A request sequence σ\sigmaσ is a finite list of vertices. A deterministic on-line algorithm assigns to every prefix of requests the configuration after serving it, in such a way that the vertex just requested is covered; its cost on σ\sigmaσ is the total distance travelled by its servers, which on the uniform metric is the number of server moves. Paging with kkk cache slots and nnn pages is exactly this kkk-server problem on nnn uniform vertices.

The optimal off-line cost OPTC0(σ)\mathrm{OPT}_{C_0}(\sigma)OPTC0​​(σ) is the least cost of any schedule of configurations that starts at C0C_0C0​ and covers each request of σ\sigmaσ in turn.

A randomized on-line algorithm AAA is a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) of coin outcomes together with a deterministic on-line algorithm AωA_\omegaAω​ for each outcome ω\omegaω. Its expected cost CA(σ)C_A(\sigma)CA​(σ) is the average of the cost of AωA_\omegaAω​ on σ\sigmaσ over ω\omegaω. The request sequence is fixed in advance and does not depend on the coins (an oblivious adversary). Following the paper, AAA is ccc-competitive from the initial configuration C0C_0C0​ if there is a constant aaa such that

CA(σ)  ≤  c⋅OPTC0(σ)+afor every request sequence σ.C_A(\sigma) \;\le\; c \cdot \mathrm{OPT}_{C_0}(\sigma) + a \qquad \text{for every request sequence } \sigma .CA​(σ)≤c⋅OPTC0​​(σ)+afor every request sequence σ.

For the lower-bound argument, the probability vector p=(pi)i∈Mp=(p_i)_{i\in M}p=(pi​)i∈M​ after a prefix σ\sigmaσ has pip_ipi​ equal to the probability, over ω\omegaω, that vertex iii is not covered by AωA_\omegaAω​ after serving σ\sigmaσ. A set SSS of marked vertices and the number u=n−∣S∣u = n - |S|u=n−∣S∣ of unmarked vertices are bookkeeping of the adversary, updated as the marking algorithm would update them.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 5

For 1≤k≤n−11 \le k \le n-11≤k≤n−1, every randomized on-line algorithm AAA with kkk servers on nnn uniform vertices, every initial configuration C0C_0C0​ and every real ccc,

c<Hk  ⟹  A is not c-competitive from C0.c < H_k \;\Longrightarrow\; A \text{ is not } c\text{-competitive from } C_0 .c<Hk​⟹A is not c-competitive from C0​.

Theorem 4 (milestone)

The case k=n−1k = n-1k=n−1: no randomized algorithm for the uniform (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-server problem on nnn vertices is ccc-competitive with c<Hn−1c < H_{n-1}c<Hn−1​.

Claims of the proof of Theorem 4 (milestones)

With ppp the probability vector, SSS the marked set, P=∑i∈SpiP = \sum_{i\in S} p_iP=∑i∈S​pi​ and u=n−∣S∣u = n - |S|u=n−∣S∣:

∑ipi=1(servers on distinct vertices),CA(σ i)≥CA(σ)+pi,\sum_i p_i = 1 \quad(\text{servers on distinct vertices}),\qquad C_A(\sigma\,i) \ge C_A(\sigma) + p_i,i∑​pi​=1(servers on distinct vertices),CA​(σi)≥CA​(σ)+pi​, P=0⇒∃ i∉S, pi≥1u,P>ϵ>0⇒max⁡j∈Spj≥ϵ∣S∣>0,P = 0 \Rightarrow \exists\, i\notin S,\ p_i \ge \tfrac1u, \qquad P > \epsilon > 0 \Rightarrow \max_{j\in S} p_j \ge \tfrac{\epsilon}{|S|} > 0,P=0⇒∃i∈/S, pi​≥u1​,P>ϵ>0⇒j∈Smax​pj​≥∣S∣ϵ​>0, pj=max⁡j′∉Spj′⇒pj≥1−Pu,P≤ϵ⇒ϵ+pj≥ϵ+1−Pu≥ϵ+1−ϵu≥1u.p_j = \max_{j'\notin S} p_{j'} \Rightarrow p_j \ge \tfrac{1-P}{u}, \qquad P \le \epsilon \Rightarrow \epsilon + p_j \ge \epsilon + \tfrac{1-P}{u} \ge \epsilon + \tfrac{1-\epsilon}{u} \ge \tfrac1u .pj​=j′∈/Smax​pj′​⇒pj​≥u1−P​,P≤ϵ⇒ϵ+pj​≥ϵ+u1−P​≥ϵ+u1−ϵ​≥u1​.

Significance

The result. Together with the marking algorithm's 2Hk2H_k2Hk​ upper bound, the corollary pins the randomized competitive ratio of paging to Θ(log⁡k)\Theta(\log k)Θ(logk), an exponential improvement over the deterministic ratio kkk that no randomized algorithm can push below HkH_kHk​. For k=n−1k = n-1k=n−1 the marking algorithm itself is Hn−1H_{n-1}Hn−1​-competitive, so Theorem 4 makes it optimal there. The HkH_kHk​ bound is the benchmark every later randomized paging algorithm is measured against, including the HkH_kHk​-competitive algorithm of McGeoch and Sleator, and it is the uniform-metric base case of the randomized kkk-server conjecture.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved and classical; no machine-checked proof is known to exist. The platform already has the deterministic bound (KServer.uniform_not_competitive_below_k, ratio kkk) and a formal Yao averaging principle for randomized kkk-server algorithms (KServer.randomized_yao_averaging), but no randomized paging lower bound. This mission produces the first formal HkH_kHk​ lower bound, stated against the published randomized kkk-server model, and a formal version of the paper's adversary argument. Either route — the paper's adaptive construction of a nemesis sequence from the probability vector, or Raghavan's distributional argument through Yao's principle — is welcome.

Difficulty

The adversary may not look at the coins, yet it must build one fixed sequence against which the expected cost is high in every phase. Requesting an uncovered vertex is not available, since which vertex is uncovered depends on the coins; requesting the vertex with the largest uncovered probability gives only 1/n1/n1/n per request and loses the harmonic sum. Lifting the per-phase bound to the asymptotic statement also requires handling the additive constant aaa, the initial configuration of the off-line algorithm, and, for Corollary 5, the reduction from nnn vertices to k+1k+1k+1 of them for an algorithm that may still place servers on the others.

Formalization scope

The Lean development reuses the published definitions KServer_model (configurations Fin k → M, deterministic on-line algorithms as functions of the request prefix, offlineCost) and KServer_randomized (RandomizedAlgorithm: a probability measure on coin outcomes, a deterministic algorithm per outcome, measurable costs; expCost as a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; IsCompetitiveFrom C₀ c: every drawn algorithm starts at C0C_0C0​ and there is one constant aaa, fixed before the sequence, with expCost σ ≤ ENNReal.ofReal (c * offlineCost C₀ σ + a)). The clamp at 000 in ENNReal.ofReal only weakens the property the goal refutes. The vertex set is an abstract type MMM with an equivalence Fin n ≃ M and the uniform metric as a hypothesis, never the line metric of Fin n. HkH_kHk​ is Mathlib's harmonic k cast to R\mathbb RR. The goal quantifies over every algorithm and every initial configuration, with no laziness or distinct-positions assumption, and over every real c<Hkc < H_kc<Hk​, including c≤0c \le 0c≤0.

A formalization in which competitiveness is vacuous (a model with no algorithms, or a cost that is always infinite), in which the adversary may choose the sequence after seeing the coins, or which fixes ccc or the additive constant, would be a different statement and is ruled out by the published definitions used here.

The probability vector is the one new definition, uncoveredProb A σ i. Milestones about it assume the uncovered events measurable, the standing convention that pip_ipi​ is a probability; the model itself only guarantees measurable costs. The milestone ∑ipi=1\sum_i p_i = 1∑i​pi​=1 assumes the n−1n-1n−1 servers occupy distinct vertices, as in the paper; in general ∑ipi≥1\sum_i p_i \ge 1∑i​pi​≥1. The arithmetic milestones are stated for an arbitrary probability vector on a finite set. Reusable pieces: the probability vector and the cost lemma apply to any randomized kkk-server algorithm on a uniform metric, and a restriction lemma (from nnn vertices to k+1k+1k+1) would serve other paging lower bounds.

Selected references

  • A. Fiat, R. M. Karp, M. Luby, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, N. E. Young, Competitive Paging Algorithms, J. Algorithms 12(4):685–699, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(91)90041-V ; preprint arXiv:cs/0205038v1 (cited version). https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0205038
  • D. D. Sleator, R. E. Tarjan, Amortized Efficiency of List Update and Paging Rules, Comm. ACM 28(2):202–208, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1145/2786.2793
  • M. S. Manasse, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, Competitive Algorithms for Server Problems, J. Algorithms 11(2):208–230, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(90)90003-W
  • L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, A Strongly Competitive Randomized Paging Algorithm, Algorithmica 6:816–825, 1991.
  • P. Raghavan, Lecture Notes on Randomized Algorithms, IBM Research Report, Yorktown Heights, 1990 (the alternative proof of the lower bound, pp. 118–119).
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Competitive Paging Algorithms II: Algorithm EATR Is 3/2-Competitive for Two ServersResearch Paper

Motivation

Paging is the problem of managing a two-level memory: a fast cache holding kkk pages and a slow memory holding the rest. When a requested page is not in the cache (a page fault), it must be brought in and, if the cache is full, some page must be evicted. An on-line paging algorithm decides which page to evict without knowing future requests. Sleator and Tarjan (CACM 1985) compared on-line algorithms with the optimal off-line algorithm on every request sequence and showed that the best deterministic algorithms (LRU, FIFO) lose a factor of exactly kkk, and that no deterministic on-line algorithm does better.

Randomization changes this picture. Fiat, Karp, Luby, McGeoch, Sleator and Young (J. Algorithms 1991; arXiv:cs/0205038) showed that the randomized marking algorithm is 2Hk2H_k2Hk​-competitive, where Hk=1+12+⋯+1kH_k=1+\tfrac12+\dots+\tfrac1kHk​=1+21​+⋯+k1​, and that no randomized algorithm is better than HkH_kHk​-competitive. For k<n−1k<n-1k<n−1 the marking algorithm does not reach HkH_kHk​, already for k=2k=2k=2 and n=4n=4n=4. For two servers the same paper gives a different algorithm, EATR ("end after twice requested"), and proves it 3/23/23/2-competitive. Since H2=3/2H_2=3/2H2​=3/2, EATR is strongly competitive for k=2k=2k=2: no randomized algorithm has a smaller competitive factor. This mission formalizes that result.

Timeline:

  • 1985: Sleator and Tarjan, deterministic paging: factor kkk, and kkk is optimal.
  • 1988: Karlin, Manasse, Rudolph and Sleator introduce the term competitive (Algorithmica 3:79–119); Manasse, McGeoch and Sleator formulate the kkk-server problem and extend competitiveness to randomized algorithms (J. Algorithms 1990).
  • 1991: Fiat et al.: the marking algorithm is 2Hk2H_k2Hk​-competitive, the lower bound HkH_kHk​, and EATR is 3/23/23/2-competitive for k=2k=2k=2.
  • 1991: McGeoch and Sleator give an HkH_kHk​-competitive algorithm for every kkk (Algorithmica 6, 1991; reference [12] of the paper).

Setting

The uniform 222-server problem has a finite set MMM of n≥2n\ge 2n≥2 vertices, any two distinct vertices at distance 111, and two servers. A request sequence σ=σ(0),σ(1),…\sigma=\sigma(0),\sigma(1),\dotsσ=σ(0),σ(1),… is a list of vertices; each request must be covered by a server when it is served, and the cost is the number of server moves. This is paging with a cache of two pages: vertices are pages and the covered vertices are the cache.

A deterministic algorithm BBB has a cost CB(σ)C_B(\sigma)CB​(σ); a randomized algorithm AAA has an expected cost CA(σ)C_A(\sigma)CA​(σ), averaged over its random choices. AAA is ccc-competitive if there is a constant aaa such that for every request sequence σ\sigmaσ and every deterministic algorithm BBB (on-line or off-line),

CA(σ)≤c⋅CB(σ)+a.C_A(\sigma)\le c\cdot C_B(\sigma)+a.CA​(σ)≤c⋅CB​(σ)+a.

Algorithm EATR. The servers start on the vertices 111 and 222. The algorithm divides σ\sigmaσ into phases; the first phase starts at the first request to a vertex other than 111 and 222. Let PPP be the set of vertices occupied by the servers at the end of the previous phase ({1,2}\{1,2\}{1,2} before the first phase). During a phase, a vertex is clean if it is not in PPP and has not been requested during this phase; a vertex is stale if it is neither clean nor the most recently requested vertex ℓ\ellℓ. EATR keeps one server on ℓ\ellℓ and the other uniformly at random on the stale set. When a stale vertex rrr is requested, the servers are placed on ℓ\ellℓ and rrr and the phase ends; the next phase starts at the next request to a vertex not covered by a server. Requests between phases, and repeated requests to ℓ\ellℓ, move nothing.

For a phase, lll denotes the number of clean vertices requested in it. For a deterministic algorithm AAA, ddd and d′d'd′ denote the numbers of AAA's servers that do not coincide with any of EATR's servers at the beginning and at the end of the phase. An algorithm is lazy if it moves no server on a request to a covered vertex and exactly one server on a request to an uncovered one.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

With OPT(σ)\mathrm{OPT}(\sigma)OPT(σ) the optimal off-line cost of serving σ\sigmaσ from the servers' starting position (1,2)(1,2)(1,2), there is a constant ccc such that for all σ\sigmaσ

CEATR(σ)≤32 OPT(σ)+c.C_{\mathrm{EATR}}(\sigma)\le \tfrac32\,\mathrm{OPT}(\sigma)+c.CEATR​(σ)≤23​OPT(σ)+c.

The constant ccc is left free; the factor 3/23/23/2 is the paper's and is optimal.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Laziness (p. 4): every deterministic algorithm is dominated by a lazy one (a published theorem, reused).
  2. Adversary bound for structured phases (p. 5): in a complete EATR phase with lll clean requests, a lazy AAA pays at least l−d+d′l-d+d'l−d+d′.
  3. Stale set before the terminating request (p. 6): it has l+1l+1l+1 elements, each covered with probability 1/(l+1)1/(l+1)1/(l+1).
  4. Expected cost of a phase to EATR (p. 6): exactly l+ll+1l+\frac{l}{l+1}l+l+1l​.
  5. Per-phase ratio (p. 6): EATR's expected phase cost is at most 32(CA+d−d′)\tfrac32(C_A+d-d')23​(CA​+d−d′), since l+l/(l+1)l=1+1l+1≤32\frac{l+l/(l+1)}{l}=1+\frac{1}{l+1}\le\frac32ll+l/(l+1)​=1+l+11​≤23​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 settles the randomized competitive ratio of paging with two cache slots: combined with the paper's lower bound HkH_kHk​ (Corollary 5, the subject of a companion mission), the optimal factor for k=2k=2k=2 is exactly 3/23/23/2, against 222 for every deterministic algorithm. The general case was settled later by McGeoch and Sleator's HkH_kHk​-competitive partitioning algorithm, which is considerably more complicated.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved since 1991; no machine-checked proof of it is on the platform (a search for EATR, randomized paging and two-server results on 2026-09-26 found only deterministic kkk-server theorems). The mission produces a formal model of a randomized on-line algorithm as a probability distribution over states evolving with the request sequence, a formal treatment of the phase decomposition and of the telescoping amortization that relates expected on-line cost to the optimal off-line cost, and a first strongly competitive randomized paging result on the platform, alongside the deterministic kkk-server results already there.

Difficulty

The per-phase computations are short. The main difficulty is the global accounting. The adversary's cost in a phase is bounded only in amortized form, l−d+d′l-d+d'l−d+d′, where ddd and d′d'd′ compare the adversary's servers with EATR's at the phase boundaries; the bound becomes a statement about OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT only after the ddd and d′d'd′ terms telescope across phases. This needs care with the requests that lie outside every phase (before the first phase, between phases, and in an unfinished last phase), during which the adversary may move. A further difficulty is that the off-line optimum ranges over arbitrary schedules, which may move several servers on one request, while the phase bound is proved for lazy on-line algorithms: the reduction from one to the other must be made explicit. Finally, the uniform law of the stale server is an invariant of a Markov chain on states that must be tracked through the whole phase.

Formalization scope

The vertices are an abstract metric space MMM with an enumeration e:Fin n≃Me:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\simeq Me:Finn≃M, 2≤n2\le n2≤n, and the hypothesis that distinct points are at distance 111; the metric of Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn is not used. The starting vertices 1,21,21,2 are e(0),e(1)e(0),e(1)e(0),e(1). OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is KServer.offlineCost of the published KServer model: the infimum of total movement over all schedules serving σ\sigmaσ from (e(0),e(1))(e(0),e(1))(e(0),e(1)). Comparing with this infimum covers every deterministic BBB starting from EATR's position; a BBB starting elsewhere differs by at most 222, which the constant absorbs. The constant is quantified before σ\sigmaσ.

EATR is a PMF over states: a deterministic record (the set PPP, whether a phase is in progress, the last requested vertex, the vertices requested in the phase) and the random position of the second server. Its expected cost is the expected number of server moves, summed over the requests. The paper fixes only that the second server is uniform on the stale set; when a clean request enlarges the stale set, the formalization moves one server by a fixed coupling that keeps the law uniform, and this choice is stated in the definition. A formalization that defines EATR's expected cost by the closed formula of the proof, or that restricts σ\sigmaσ to complete phases, would make the goal a different statement; neither is done here. The pre-phase prefix and an unfinished last phase belong to σ\sigmaσ and are covered by the constant.

Needed infrastructure: finite probability distributions (Mathlib's PMF), the published KServer model and its laziness theorem, and bookkeeping lemmas on the deterministic phase record. The phase record and the amortization argument are reusable for the marking algorithm of the companion mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative decompositions of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Fiat, R. M. Karp, M. Luby, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, N. E. Young, Competitive Paging Algorithms, Journal of Algorithms 12(4):685–699, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(91)90041-V ; arXiv:cs/0205038v1, https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0205038
  • D. D. Sleator, R. E. Tarjan, Amortized Efficiency of List Update and Paging Rules, Communications of the ACM 28(2):202–208, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1145/2786.2793
  • M. S. Manasse, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, Competitive Algorithms for Server Problems, Journal of Algorithms 11(2):208–230, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(90)90003-W
  • L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, A Strongly Competitive Randomized Paging Algorithm, Algorithmica 6:816–825, 1991 (reference [12] of the paper).
  • A. R. Karlin, M. S. Manasse, L. Rudolph, D. D. Sleator, Competitive Snoopy Caching, Algorithmica 3(1):79–119, 1988 (reference [9] of the paper).
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Information TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures II: The Conditional Entropic Risk Measure and Conditional Relative EntropyResearch Paper

Motivation

A risk measure assigns to a random financial position XXX a capital requirement ρ(X)\rho(X)ρ(X): the amount of cash that must be added to XXX to make it acceptable. The axiomatic theory of convex risk measures (Föllmer–Schied 2002; Frittelli–Rosazza Gianin 2002) treats this number as computed with no information beyond the model. In practice a regulator or a risk manager revises the requirement as information arrives, so the requirement becomes a random variable measurable with respect to the information available at the time of measurement. Detlefsen and Scandolo (SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2005-006; published in Finance and Stochastics 9(4), 2005, doi:10.1007/s00780-005-0159-6) develop this conditional theory: axioms, a robust representation, and a treatment of dynamic risk measurement.

The entropic risk measure is the standard example of a convex risk measure that is not coherent. It is the capital requirement of an agent with exponential utility uγ(x)=1−e−γxu_\gamma(x)=1-e^{-\gamma x}uγ​(x)=1−e−γx, and its penalty function in the robust representation is the relative entropy 1γH(Q∣P)\frac1\gamma H(Q\mid P)γ1​H(Q∣P) (Föllmer–Schied, Stochastic Finance, Example 4.60, as cited by the paper). Section 5 of the paper carries this example to the conditional setting and shows that its penalty is a conditional relative entropy. The same identity appears in dynamic entropic risk measures, exponential-utility indifference pricing and recursive utility, where one-period conditional entropic measures are composed over time.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) and a sub-σ\sigmaσ-algebra G⊆F\mathcal G\subseteq\mathcal FG⊆F, the information available at the time of measurement. L∞L^\inftyL∞ is the space of essentially bounded random variables and LG∞L^\infty_{\mathcal G}LG∞​ its G\mathcal GG-measurable part. All equalities and inequalities between random variables hold PPP-almost surely.

A conditional convex risk measure is a map ρ:L∞→LG∞\rho:L^\infty\to L^\infty_{\mathcal G}ρ:L∞→LG∞​ that is translation invariant (ρ(X+Z)=ρ(X)−Z\rho(X+Z)=\rho(X)-Zρ(X+Z)=ρ(X)−Z for Z∈LG∞Z\in L^\infty_{\mathcal G}Z∈LG∞​), monotone (X≤Y⇒ρ(X)≥ρ(Y)X\le Y\Rightarrow\rho(X)\ge\rho(Y)X≤Y⇒ρ(X)≥ρ(Y)), conditionally convex (ρ(ΛX+(1−Λ)Y)≤Λρ(X)+(1−Λ)ρ(Y)\rho(\Lambda X+(1-\Lambda)Y)\le\Lambda\rho(X)+(1-\Lambda)\rho(Y)ρ(ΛX+(1−Λ)Y)≤Λρ(X)+(1−Λ)ρ(Y) for Λ∈LG∞\Lambda\in L^\infty_{\mathcal G}Λ∈LG∞​, 0≤Λ≤10\le\Lambda\le10≤Λ≤1), and satisfies ρ(0)=0\rho(0)=0ρ(0)=0.

The relevant probability models are

PG={Q probability on (Ω,F):Q≪P, Q(A)=P(A) for all A∈G}.\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}=\{Q \text{ probability on } (\Omega,\mathcal F) : Q\ll P,\ Q(A)=P(A)\ \text{for all } A\in\mathcal G\}.PG​={Q probability on (Ω,F):Q≪P, Q(A)=P(A) for all A∈G}.

The essential supremum of a family X\mathcal XX of [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞]-valued random variables is the a.s. smallest random variable that dominates every member a.s.; the essential infimum is defined symmetrically. The minimal penalty of ρ\rhoρ is

α∗(Q)=ess.sup⁡X∈L∞{−EQ(X∣G)−ρ(X)},Q∈PG.\alpha^*(Q)=\operatorname{ess.sup}_{X\in L^\infty}\{-E_Q(X\mid\mathcal G)-\rho(X)\},\qquad Q\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}.α∗(Q)=ess.supX∈L∞​{−EQ​(X∣G)−ρ(X)},Q∈PG​.

For a risk aversion γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the conditional entropic risk measure is

ργ(X)=1γlog⁡EP(e−γX∣G),\rho_\gamma(X)=\frac1\gamma\log E_P\big(e^{-\gamma X}\mid\mathcal G\big),ργ​(X)=γ1​logEP​(e−γX∣G),

the capital requirement for the acceptance set Aγ={X∈L∞:EP(e−γX∣G)≤1}A_\gamma=\{X\in L^\infty : E_P(e^{-\gamma X}\mid\mathcal G)\le1\}Aγ​={X∈L∞:EP​(e−γX∣G)≤1}. For Q∈PGQ\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}Q∈PG​ with density φ=dQ/dP\varphi=dQ/dPφ=dQ/dP, the conditional relative entropy is

HG(Q∣P)=EP(φlog⁡φ∣G)∈[0,+∞],0log⁡0=0.H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P)=E_P(\varphi\log\varphi\mid\mathcal G)\in[0,+\infty],\qquad 0\log0=0.HG​(Q∣P)=EP​(φlogφ∣G)∈[0,+∞],0log0=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5.4

For every γ>0\gamma>0γ>0:

ργ(X)=ess.sup⁡Q∈PG{−EQ(X∣G)−1γHG(Q∣P)}(X∈L∞),α∗(Q)=1γHG(Q∣P)(Q∈PG).\rho_\gamma(X)=\operatorname{ess.sup}_{Q\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}}\Big\{-E_Q(X\mid\mathcal G)-\tfrac1\gamma H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P)\Big\}\quad(X\in L^\infty),\qquad \alpha^*(Q)=\tfrac1\gamma H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P)\quad(Q\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}).ργ​(X)=ess.supQ∈PG​​{−EQ​(X∣G)−γ1​HG​(Q∣P)}(X∈L∞),α∗(Q)=γ1​HG​(Q∣P)(Q∈PG​).

The first identity is representability with the minimal penalty as the penalty; the second identifies that penalty.

Milestones

  1. (Section 5, p. 12) ργ\rho_\gammaργ​ is a conditional convex risk measure.
  2. (Section 5, p. 12) ργ(X)=ess.inf⁡{Y∈LG∞:X+Y∈Aγ}=ess.inf⁡{Y∈LG∞:EP(e−γX∣G)≤eγY}\rho_\gamma(X)=\operatorname{ess.inf}\{Y\in L^\infty_{\mathcal G}: X+Y\in A_\gamma\}=\operatorname{ess.inf}\{Y\in L^\infty_{\mathcal G}: E_P(e^{-\gamma X}\mid\mathcal G)\le e^{\gamma Y}\}ργ​(X)=ess.inf{Y∈LG∞​:X+Y∈Aγ​}=ess.inf{Y∈LG∞​:EP​(e−γX∣G)≤eγY}.
  3. (Proof of Proposition 5.4) ργ\rho_\gammaργ​ is continuous from above: Xn↘XX_n\searrow XXn​↘X implies ργ(Xn)↗ργ(X)\rho_\gamma(X_n)\nearrow\rho_\gamma(X)ργ​(Xn​)↗ργ​(X).
  4. (Section 5, p. 13) For Q∈PGQ\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}Q∈PG​: EP(φ∣G)=1E_P(\varphi\mid\mathcal G)=1EP​(φ∣G)=1 and HG(Q∣P)=EQ(log⁡φ∣G)H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P)=E_Q(\log\varphi\mid\mathcal G)HG​(Q∣P)=EQ​(logφ∣G).
  5. (Proof of Proposition 5.4) α∗(Q)=1γess.sup⁡Z∈L∞{EQ(Z∣G)−log⁡EP(eZ∣G)}\alpha^*(Q)=\frac1\gamma\operatorname{ess.sup}_{Z\in L^\infty}\{E_Q(Z\mid\mathcal G)-\log E_P(e^Z\mid\mathcal G)\}α∗(Q)=γ1​ess.supZ∈L∞​{EQ​(Z∣G)−logEP​(eZ∣G)}.
  6. (Lemma 5.5) The conditional Donsker–Varadhan formula
ess.sup⁡Z∈L∞{EQ(Z∣G)−log⁡EP(eZ∣G)}=HG(Q∣P),Q∈PG.\operatorname{ess.sup}_{Z\in L^\infty}\{E_Q(Z\mid\mathcal G)-\log E_P(e^Z\mid\mathcal G)\}=H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P),\qquad Q\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}.ess.supZ∈L∞​{EQ​(Z∣G)−logEP​(eZ∣G)}=HG​(Q∣P),Q∈PG​.

Significance

The result gives the conditional entropic risk measure an explicit dual description: the capital requirement is a worst case over conditional models, each penalized by its conditional relative entropy. This duality is what makes entropic risk measures computable in dynamic settings. Recursive compositions of ργ\rho_\gammaργ​ over a filtration are time consistent, and their penalties add up by the chain rule for conditional relative entropy. Lemma 5.5 is also the conditional form of the Donsker–Varadhan (Gibbs) variational principle, which is used on its own in large deviations and in PAC-Bayesian bounds.

On status: the results are proved in the paper, and the unconditional versions are textbook material. Mathlib has unconditional Kullback–Leibler divergence, tilted measures, conditional Jensen's inequality and a [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞]-valued conditional expectation. As far as the platform search could establish, neither the conditional relative entropy nor the conditional Donsker–Varadhan formula nor any conditional risk measure has been formalized. This mission produces the first machine-checked conditional version, with HGH_{\mathcal G}HG​ allowed to be infinite.

Difficulty

In the unconditional case both sides of Lemma 5.5 are numbers, and the supremum is a supremum over reals. Conditionally, both sides are random variables. The supremum over the uncountable family indexed by L∞L^\inftyL∞ must be taken in the essential sense, and a pointwise supremum is neither measurable nor meaningful. The conditional relative entropy can be +∞+\infty+∞ on a set of positive probability. The integrand φlog⁡φ\varphi\log\varphiφlogφ need not be integrable, so the usual conditional expectation of L1L^1L1 is not available for it, and the "≥\ge≥" direction must reach an unbounded target through bounded test variables while controlling log⁡EP(eZ∣G)\log E_P(e^{Z}\mid\mathcal G)logEP​(eZ∣G) at the same time. The ess.sup in the goal ranges over measures, not random variables, and each EQ(⋅∣G)E_Q(\cdot\mid\mathcal G)EQ​(⋅∣G) is a conditional expectation under a different measure. These are identified with PPP-a.s. objects through the condition Q=PQ=PQ=P on G\mathcal GG.

Formalization scope

  • (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) is a probability space (IsProbabilityMeasure P), and G\mathcal GG is m : MeasurableSpace Ω with hm : m ≤ mΩ. Payoffs are real functions with MemLp X ⊤ P. LG∞L^\infty_{\mathcal G}LG∞​ membership is StronglyMeasurable[m] plus MemLp ⊤. Every (in)equality between random variables is PPP-a.e.
  • PG\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}PG​ is the subtype of probability measures Q≪PQ\ll PQ≪P with Q(A)=P(A)Q(A)=P(A)Q(A)=P(A) for all A∈GA\in\mathcal GA∈G. This is equality on G\mathcal GG, not equivalence of measures.
  • EP(⋅∣G)E_P(\cdot\mid\mathcal G)EP​(⋅∣G) and EQ(⋅∣G)E_Q(\cdot\mid\mathcal G)EQ​(⋅∣G) on bounded variables are Mathlib's conditional expectations P[·|m] and Q[·|m]. Bounded variables are integrable under every Q≪PQ\ll PQ≪P, so no junk value arises.
  • ργ\rho_\gammaργ​ is the paper's closed form 1γlog⁡EP(e−γX∣G)\frac1\gamma\log E_P(e^{-\gamma X}\mid\mathcal G)γ1​logEP​(e−γX∣G). The ess.inf descriptions are a milestone, and no positivity hypothesis on XXX is imposed.
  • φ\varphiφ is the real part of the Radon–Nikodym derivative Q.rnDeriv P. HG(Q∣P)H_{\mathcal G}(Q\mid P)HG​(Q∣P) and EQ(log⁡φ∣G)E_Q(\log\varphi\mid\mathcal G)EQ​(logφ∣G) are generalized conditional expectations, E(f+∣G)−E(f−∣G)E(f^+\mid\mathcal G)-E(f^-\mid\mathcal G)E(f+∣G)−E(f−∣G), built from Mathlib's [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞]-valued condLExp and valued in EReal. The negative parts are integrable, so +∞−(+∞)+\infty-(+\infty)+∞−(+∞) never arises. In EReal, a real number minus +∞+\infty+∞ is −∞-\infty−∞, which is how a model with infinite entropy drops out of the supremum.
  • Essential suprema and infima are predicates (IsEssSup, IsEssInf) on a candidate PPP-a.e. measurable EReal-valued function. The candidate must dominate every member a.s. and lie a.s. below every a.s. upper bound.
  • Continuity from above means: a.s. monotone convergence Xn↘XX_n\searrow XXn​↘X in L∞L^\inftyL∞ implies a.s. monotone convergence ρ(Xn)↗ρ(X)\rho(X_n)\nearrow\rho(X)ρ(Xn​)↗ρ(X).
  • γ\gammaγ is a real constant with γ>0\gamma>0γ>0. The random risk aversion of Remark 5.6 is not formalized.
  • Ruled out: defining HGH_{\mathcal G}HG​ through the Bochner conditional expectation P[φ * log φ | m] (which returns 000 when φlog⁡φ\varphi\log\varphiφlogφ is not integrable) or α∗\alpha^*α∗ through a pointwise supremum would make the goal false or vacuous, and so would stating it for an abstract convex risk measure in place of ργ\rho_\gammaργ​. The formalization uses the extended-valued HGH_{\mathcal G}HG​, the essential supremum, and the explicit ργ\rho_\gammaργ​.
  • The mission is self-contained. It redefines conditional convex risk measures, PG\mathcal P_{\mathcal G}PG​ and the essential supremum in its own namespace CondConvexRisk.Entropic and does not assume the general representation theorem (Theorem 3.2). The generalized conditional expectation and the conditional Donsker–Varadhan formula are reusable beyond risk measures. Contributions are welcome on the ess.sup API (existence, upward-directed families), on conditional monotone convergence for condExp, and on the conditional Jensen step for xlog⁡xx\log xxlogx.

Selected references

  • S. Detlefsen, G. Scandolo, Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures, SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2005-006, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2005 (the version formalized; published in Finance and Stochastics 9(4), 2005, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-005-0159-6).
  • H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time, de Gruyter, Berlin, 2002 (reference [8] of the paper).
  • H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Convex measures of risk and trading constraints, Finance and Stochastics 6:429–447, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007800200072
  • M. D. Donsker, S. R. S. Varadhan, Asymptotic evaluation of certain Markov process expectations for large time, III, Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 29:389–461, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160290405
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

An Analog of the Minimax Theorem for Vector Payoffs: A Closed Convex Set Is Approachable If and Only If It Meets Every T(q), and Is Otherwise ExcludableResearch Paper

Motivation

Von Neumann's minimax theorem says that in a zero-sum game with real payoffs, Player I can guarantee an expected gain of at least the value vvv and Player II can hold it to at most vvv. In a long series of plays, the law of large numbers turns this into a statement about the average payoff: I can make it exceed v−εv-\varepsilonv−ε, II can keep it below v+εv+\varepsilonv+ε, with probability approaching one.

Blackwell's 1956 paper asks the same question when the payoff of each play is a vector in RN\mathbb R^NRN rather than a number. A single player then cannot optimize "the" payoff, and the natural question becomes geometric: can a player force the running average of the payoff vectors to converge to a prescribed set SSS, whatever the opponent does? The resulting notion, approachability, became a basic tool in repeated games with incomplete information (Aumann–Maschler), in the theory of calibration and regret minimization (Foster–Vohra; Hart–Mas-Colell), and in online learning, where no-regret algorithms and Blackwell approachability are known to be equivalent (Abernethy–Bartlett–Hazan 2011).

Timeline.

  • 1928: von Neumann's minimax theorem for matrix games.
  • 1954: Blackwell's maximal inequality for sums with negative conditional drift (On optimal systems, Ann. Math. Statist.), quoted in this paper as THEOREM 2.
  • 1956: this paper. A sufficient condition for approachability (THEOREM 1), a complete characterization for closed convex sets (THEOREM 3) and for N=1N=1N=1, an example of a set that is neither approachable nor excludable, and a conjecture on weak approachability.
  • 1992: Vieille proved Blackwell's conjecture that every set is weakly approachable or weakly excludable.

Setting

Fix integers N≥0N\ge0N≥0 and r,s≥1r,s\ge1r,s≥1, and a closed, bounded, convex set X⊆RNX\subseteq\mathbb R^NX⊆RN. The game is an r×sr\times sr×s matrix M=∥m(i,j)∥M=\|m(i,j)\|M=∥m(i,j)∥ whose entries are probability distributions concentrated on XXX. Write mˉ(i,j)\bar m(i,j)mˉ(i,j) for the mean of m(i,j)m(i,j)m(i,j), PPP for the simplex of mixed actions p=(p1,…,pr)p=(p_1,\dots,p_r)p=(p1​,…,pr​) of Player I, and QQQ for that of Player II.

A strategy f={fn}n≥0f=\{f_n\}_{n\ge0}f={fn​}n≥0​ of I is a sequence of measurable maps from the nnn-tuples (x1,…,xn)(x_1,\dots,x_n)(x1​,…,xn​) of past outcomes to PPP; f0f_0f0​ is a point of PPP. Strategies g={gn}g=\{g_n\}g={gn​} of II take values in QQQ. A play of (f,g)(f,g)(f,g) is a sequence of random vectors x1,x2,…x_1,x_2,\dotsx1​,x2​,… such that, given x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​, the players draw iii and jjj independently from fn(x1,…,xn)f_n(x_1,\dots,x_n)fn​(x1​,…,xn​) and gn(x1,…,xn)g_n(x_1,\dots,x_n)gn​(x1​,…,xn​), and xn+1x_{n+1}xn+1​ is drawn from m(i,j)m(i,j)m(i,j). The average payoff is xˉn=1n∑i=1nxi\bar x_n=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n x_ixˉn​=n1​∑i=1n​xi​, and δn\delta_nδn​ is its distance from SSS.

A set S⊆RNS\subseteq\mathbb R^NS⊆RN is approachable with f∗f^*f∗ if for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is N0N_0N0​ such that for every strategy ggg of II,

Prob{δn≥ε for some n≥N0}<ε.\mathrm{Prob}\{\delta_n\ge\varepsilon\text{ for some }n\ge N_0\}<\varepsilon .Prob{δn​≥ε for some n≥N0​}<ε.

It is excludable with g∗g^*g∗ if there is d>0d>0d>0 such that for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is N0N_0N0​ such that for every strategy fff of I,

Prob{δn≥d for all n≥N0}>1−ε.\mathrm{Prob}\{\delta_n\ge d\text{ for all }n\ge N_0\}>1-\varepsilon .Prob{δn​≥d for all n≥N0​}>1−ε.

SSS is approachable (excludable) if some strategy approaches (excludes) it. Finally, for p∈Pp\in Pp∈P and q∈Qq\in Qq∈Q,

R(p)=conv⁡{∑ipimˉ(i,j)}j=1s,T(q)=conv⁡{∑jqjmˉ(i,j)}i=1r:R(p)=\operatorname{conv}\Big\{\textstyle\sum_i p_i\bar m(i,j)\Big\}_{j=1}^{s},\qquad T(q)=\operatorname{conv}\Big\{\textstyle\sum_j q_j\bar m(i,j)\Big\}_{i=1}^{r}:R(p)=conv{∑i​pi​mˉ(i,j)}j=1s​,T(q)=conv{∑j​qj​mˉ(i,j)}i=1r​:

R(p)R(p)R(p) is the set of expected payoffs I can guarantee to stay in by playing ppp, and T(q)T(q)T(q) the set II can confine them to by playing qqq.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 3

For a closed convex set S⊆RNS\subseteq\mathbb R^NS⊆RN,

S is approachable  ⟺  S∩T(q)≠∅  for every q∈Q,S\text{ is approachable}\iff S\cap T(q)\neq\emptyset\ \text{ for every }q\in Q,S is approachable⟺S∩T(q)=∅  for every q∈Q,

and if S∩T(q0)=∅S\cap T(q_0)=\emptysetS∩T(q0​)=∅ then SSS is excludable with the stationary strategy gn≡q0g_n\equiv q_0gn​≡q0​. In particular every closed convex set is either approachable or excludable. Both sentences are part of the goal.

Milestones, in the paper's order

  1. THEOREM 2: for ∣zk∣≤1|z_k|\le1∣zk​∣≤1 with E(zk∣z1,…,zk−1)≤−u E(∣zk∣∣z1,…,zk−1)E(z_k\mid z_1,\dots,z_{k-1})\le-u\,E(|z_k|\mid z_1,\dots,z_{k-1})E(zk​∣z1​,…,zk−1​)≤−uE(∣zk​∣∣z1​,…,zk−1​) and 0<u<10<u<10<u<1,
Prob{z1+⋯+zk≥t for some k}≤(1−u1+u)t.\mathrm{Prob}\{z_1+\dots+z_k\ge t\text{ for some }k\}\le\Big(\tfrac{1-u}{1+u}\Big)^t .Prob{z1​+⋯+zk​≥t for some k}≤(1+u1−u​)t.
  1. The LEMMA: a sequence satisfying the almost-supermartingale conditions (5), (6), (7) converges to 000 at a rate depending only on the constants a,b,ca,b,ca,b,c.
  2. In the proof of THEOREM 1, the squared distances δn2\delta_n^2δn2​ satisfy (5)–(7) uniformly in II's strategy.
  3. THEOREM 1: if every x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S admits p(x)∈Pp(x)\in Pp(x)∈P such that the hyperplane through a closest point y∈Sy\in Sy∈S, perpendicular to xyxyxy, separates xxx from R(p(x))R(p(x))R(p(x)), then SSS is approachable with any strategy playing p(xˉn)p(\bar x_n)p(xˉn​) when xˉn∉S\bar x_n\notin Sxˉn​∈/S.
  4. No set is both approachable and excludable.
  5. If a closed SSS is approachable in the transpose M′M'M′ with fff, then every closed TTT disjoint from SSS is excludable in MMM with fff.
  6. A closed convex SSS meeting every T(q)T(q)T(q) satisfies THEOREM 1's hypothesis.
  7. Every T(q0)T(q_0)T(q0​) is approachable in M′M'M′ with fn≡q0f_n\equiv q_0fn​≡q0​.

Significance

The result. THEOREM 3 is the vector analogue of the minimax theorem. For a closed convex target it reduces an infinite-horizon stochastic question, about every strategy of the opponent over all histories, to a finite family of one-shot conditions on the mean matrix Mˉ\bar MMˉ, and it shows that the game is determined for convex targets: one of the two players always wins. Its sufficient condition, THEOREM 1, is the origin of the "Blackwell strategy", which steers the average toward the target by playing, at each step, a mixed action that pushes the expected next payoff across the supporting hyperplane. Regret-matching, calibration algorithms and the reductions between online linear optimization and approachability are instances of this construction.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to the best of available knowledge no machine-checked proof of it exists. This mission produces one: the stochastic model of a repeated game with vector payoffs, the probabilistic estimates (THEOREM 2 and the LEMMA) with the uniform rate the paper claims, and the minimax reduction for convex sets. A related platform mission, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization XIII, states a deterministic, sufficiency-only textbook variant for bounded sets; the present mission covers the stochastic model, unbounded convex targets, and the excludability half.

Difficulty

The obvious argument shows that the expected squared distance Eδn2E\delta_n^2Eδn2​ decreases like 1/n1/n1/n. That is not approachability: the definition asks for the probability that the average is ever again ε\varepsilonε-far after time N0N_0N0​, uniformly over the opponent's strategies. Controlling the whole tail of the path, with a threshold N0N_0N0​ that does not depend on the opponent, is the step that fails for a naive expectation bound and is why the paper needs a maximal inequality for sums with negative conditional drift. On the geometric side, the "only if" direction is not automatic: it requires that approachability and excludability be incompatible, which in turn requires that a play of every pair of strategies exists.

Formalization scope

Points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin N); pure actions are Fin r and Fin s; mixed actions are elements of stdSimplex. The game is a structure carrying XXX (closed, bounded, convex) and the distributions m(i,j)m(i,j)m(i,j) (probability measures with m(i,j)(Xc)=0m(i,j)(X^{c})=0m(i,j)(Xc)=0). A play is described by the conditional law of the next outcome given the past, and approachability and excludability quantify over every probability space in Type carrying such a play. Distances are extended (Metric.infEDist), equal to +∞+\infty+∞ to the empty set.

Conventions and disclosed additions:

  • r,s≥1r,s\ge1r,s≥1 where a statement needs both players to have strategies;
  • strategies are measurable in the history;
  • outcomes are indexed from 111; (5) and (7) start at n=2n=2n=2, (6) at n=1n=1n=1;
  • "the closest point" in THEOREM 1 is some closest point, and "separates" is weak separation;
  • THEOREM 2 is stated with E(∣zk∣∣⋅)E(|z_k|\mid\cdot)E(∣zk​∣∣⋅) in place of the printed "max" (the weaker hypothesis, as in the cited source), and with u<1u<1u<1 so that ((1−u)/(1+u))t((1-u)/(1+u))^t((1−u)/(1+u))t is a real power.

SSS is not assumed bounded or nonempty. With the real-valued distance, the empty set would be approachable with every strategy and THEOREM 3 would be false; the extended distance rules this out. Stating only the sufficiency direction, fixing the approaching strategy in the hypotheses, or assuming a play exists would each trivialize the goal, and none is done.

A complete development needs: conditional laws of the next outcome from a strategy pair (Ionescu–Tulcea, Kernel.traj in Mathlib), a nonnegative-supermartingale maximal inequality, the metric projection onto closed convex sets, and the minimax theorem (Mathlib's Sion theorem). The maximal inequality of THEOREM 2 and the LEMMA are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, and to a construction of plays, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Blackwell, An analog of the minimax theorem for vector payoffs, Pacific J. Math. 6(1):1–8, 1956. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1956.6.1
  • D. Blackwell, On optimal systems, Ann. Math. Statist. 25(2):394–397, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728796
  • N. Vieille, Weak approachability, Math. Oper. Res. 17(4):781–791, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.17.4.781
  • J. Abernethy, P. Bartlett, E. Hazan, Blackwell approachability and no-regret learning are equivalent, COLT 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.1936
  • S. Hart, A. Mas-Colell, A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 68(5):1127–1150, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities III: The Expected Cost of a Linear Program with Random Coefficients Is ConvexResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear program is solved with known data, but in planning problems the data are often only known in distribution when the main decision is taken: demands, yields and requirements are revealed later, and a corrective action is taken after they are. E. M. L. Beale's 1955 paper On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities formulates this situation in its §5, "Linear Programming with Random Coefficients", as what is now called a two-stage stochastic linear program with recourse. Beale's motivating example is the transportation problem of Hitchcock (1941) with random requirements at the destinations, where every unit of shortage or excess incurs a loss. The same model was put forward in the same year by Dantzig, Linear Programming under Uncertainty (Management Science, 1955), as the paper's note added in proof acknowledges.

Timeline:

  • 1955. Beale (§5, Theorems 2 and 3) and Dantzig independently introduce two-stage linear programs with random data; Beale proves that the expected cost is convex in the first-stage decision, and that the cost is convex in the random data for fixed decision.
  • 1967. Walkup and Wets, Stochastic Programs with Recourse, study the domain of the expected recourse function and its properties under fixed recourse.
  • 1974. Wets, Stochastic Programs with Fixed Recourse: The Equivalent Deterministic Program, gives the systematic treatment of convexity, finiteness and polyhedrality of the expected recourse function, now textbook material (Birge and Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, Ch. 3).

Setting

Constants c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn, f∈Rpf\in\mathbb R^pf∈Rp and an m×pm\times pm×p matrix D=(dik)D=(d_{ik})D=(dik​) are given. The data A=(αij)A=(\alpha_{ij})A=(αij​), an m×nm\times nm×n matrix, and β∈Rm\beta\in\mathbb R^mβ∈Rm are random variables on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P): their distribution is known when the first-stage decision x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn, x≥0x\ge0x≥0, is chosen, and their values are known when the second-stage decision y∈Rpy\in\mathbb R^py∈Rp, y≥0y\ge0y≥0, is chosen. The cost is

C=c′x+f′y,Ax+Dy=β.(5.3),(5.4)C=c'x+f'y,\qquad Ax+Dy=\beta. \qquad(5.3),(5.4)C=c′x+f′y,Ax+Dy=β.(5.3),(5.4)

For a right-hand side b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm the second-stage value is

Q(b)=min⁡{f′y:y≥0, Dy=b},Q(b)=\min\{f'y : y\ge0,\ Dy=b\},Q(b)=min{f′y:y≥0, Dy=b},

and for fixed data the cost of a first-stage decision is C(x)=c′x+Q(β−Ax)C(x)=c'x+Q(\beta-Ax)C(x)=c′x+Q(β−Ax). The expected cost is

E(C)(x)=∫Ω(c′x+Q(β(ω)−A(ω)x)) dP(ω).E(C)(x)=\int_\Omega \bigl(c'x+Q(\beta(\omega)-A(\omega)x)\bigr)\,dP(\omega).E(C)(x)=∫Ω​(c′x+Q(β(ω)−A(ω)x))dP(ω).

The problem is to choose x≥0x\ge0x≥0 minimising E(C)E(C)E(C). In Lean the value is secondStageValue D f b, the cost is cost c f D A β x, and the expected cost is expectedCost P c f D A β x, all in the namespace BealeConvexMin.RandomLP.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 182)

Assume that for every x≥0x\ge0x≥0 the second-stage minimum is attained for almost every outcome and that ω↦C(x,ω)\omega\mapsto C(x,\omega)ω↦C(x,ω) is integrable. Then

E(C)(λ1x1+λ2x2)≤λ1E(C)(x1)+λ2E(C)(x2)(x1,x2≥0, λ1,λ2≥0, λ1+λ2=1),E(C)(\lambda_1x_1+\lambda_2x_2)\le\lambda_1E(C)(x_1)+\lambda_2E(C)(x_2)\qquad(x_1,x_2\ge0,\ \lambda_1,\lambda_2\ge0,\ \lambda_1+\lambda_2=1),E(C)(λ1​x1​+λ2​x2​)≤λ1​E(C)(x1​)+λ2​E(C)(x2​)(x1​,x2​≥0, λ1​,λ2​≥0, λ1​+λ2​=1),

that is, E(C)E(C)E(C) is convex on the non-negative orthant. The statement fixes no distribution class: it is claimed for any known distribution of (A,β)(A,\beta)(A,β).

Milestones

  1. Pointwise convexity (last display of the proof of Theorem 2, p. 182): for fixed data (A,β)(A,\beta)(A,β), with the minimum attained at every x≥0x\ge0x≥0,
C(λ1x1+λ2x2)≤λ1C(x1)+λ2C(x2).C(\lambda_1x_1+\lambda_2x_2)\le\lambda_1C(x_1)+\lambda_2C(x_2).C(λ1​x1​+λ2​x2​)≤λ1​C(x1​)+λ2​C(x2​).
  1. Theorem 3 (p. 182): for fixed xxx, the cost (A,β)↦c′x+Q(β−Ax)(A,\beta)\mapsto c'x+Q(\beta-Ax)(A,β)↦c′x+Q(β−Ax) is jointly convex on every convex set of data on which the second-stage minimum is attained.
  2. Eqs. (5.5)–(5.6) (p. 182): for a finitely supported distribution, A=ArA=A_rA=Ar​ and β=βr\beta=\beta_rβ=βr​ with probability prp_rpr​, the value E(C)(x)E(C)(x)E(C)(x) is the minimum of c′x+∑rprf′yrc'x+\sum_r p_r f'y_rc′x+∑r​pr​f′yr​ over non-negative yry_ryr​ with Arx+Dyr=βrA_rx+Dy_r=\beta_rAr​x+Dyr​=βr​ for all rrr; minimising E(C)E(C)E(C) is then a linear program.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 is the basic structural fact of two-stage stochastic linear programming: the first-stage problem is a convex program in xxx, whatever the distribution of the data. It is what makes local optimality global for the first-stage problem, what justifies cutting-plane and decomposition methods that approximate E(C)E(C)E(C) from below by supporting hyperplanes, and what makes sample-average approximations convex programs. Theorem 3, joint convexity in the data, gives through Jensen's inequality the comparison between the stochastic problem and its mean-value problem that Beale draws on p. 182. The discrete reformulation (5.5)–(5.6) is the deterministic-equivalent linear program used for finitely many scenarios.

Formalizing it. The theorems are proved in the paper, and their content is classical. The mission produces machine-checked statements of the model with its implicit hypotheses made explicit (attainment of the second stage, integrability of the cost), and proofs of the three results in Lean. The platform already has related statements in other models (finite scenario sets with extended-real recourse, and a complete-recourse, finite-second-moment version); none has Beale's hypotheses, and none states convexity of c′x+E Qc'x+E\,Qc′x+EQ for an arbitrary distribution.

Difficulty

The mathematics is short; the difficulty is in the encoding. The second-stage value is a minimum that may fail to exist: the second stage may be infeasible for some xxx and some outcomes, or unbounded below. A real-valued infimum then takes an arbitrary default value, and convexity would become a statement about that default. Similarly, the mean value only exists when the cost is integrable. A faithful statement has to carry attainment and integrability exactly where the paper tacitly assumes them, on the domain x≥0x\ge0x≥0 the paper uses, and no stronger condition (such as complete recourse or moment bounds) that the paper does not make. In the discrete reformulation, the minimum over the whole family (yr)r(y_r)_r(yr​)r​ has to be matched with the probability-weighted sum of per-scenario minima.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, inner products dotProduct, and y≥0y\ge0y≥0 is the componentwise order. The random data are functions A : Ω → Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ and β : Ω → Fin m → ℝ on a measurable space with a probability measure P; no measurability of the data is assumed beyond integrability of the cost.
  • The second-stage value is the real infimum of f′yf'yf′y over the feasible set. It equals 000 on an infeasible or unbounded-below second stage, so each theorem assumes attainment of the minimum where it is evaluated (the paper's "value of yyy that minimizes CCC"). The goal assumes attainment for almost every outcome at every x≥0x\ge0x≥0.
  • E(C)E(C)E(C) is the Bochner integral, which is 000 for a non-integrable integrand, so the goal assumes integrability of C(x,⋅)C(x,\cdot)C(x,⋅) at every x≥0x\ge0x≥0 (the paper's "mean value E(C)E(C)E(C)").
  • Convexity is claimed on {x:x≥0}\{x : x\ge0\}{x:x≥0}, the paper's domain, not on all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn. Theorem 3 is stated for fixed non-negative xxx (the model's first-stage domain) and on every convex set of data on which the minimum is attained, since the paper names no domain.
  • A formalization in which the value is an unconstrained infimum without attainment, or the expectation is taken without integrability, is trivially convex on the region where the default values apply and does not state Beale's theorem; such variants are ruled out.
  • Reusable beyond this mission: basic facts on the optimal value of a parametric linear program in its right-hand side and cost data, and convexity of integrals of pointwise-convex integrands. Proofs of the milestones and of the goal, and alternative formulations in extended reals, are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. M. L. Beale, On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 17(2):173–184, 1955. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1955.tb00191.x
  • G. B. Dantzig, Linear Programming under Uncertainty, Management Science 1(3–4):197–206, 1955. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1.3-4.197
  • F. L. Hitchcock, The Distribution of a Product from Several Sources to Numerous Localities, Journal of Mathematics and Physics 20:224–230, 1941. https://doi.org/10.1002/sapm1941201224
  • D. W. Walkup and R. J.-B. Wets, Stochastic Programs with Recourse, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 15(5):1299–1314, 1967. https://doi.org/10.1137/0115113
  • R. J.-B. Wets, Stochastic Programs with Fixed Recourse: The Equivalent Deterministic Program, SIAM Review 16(3):309–339, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1137/1016053
  • J. R. Birge and F. Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, 2nd ed., Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4
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Linear algebraNumerical AnalysisRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Randomized Algorithms for Estimating the Trace of an Implicit Symmetric Positive Semi-Definite Matrix I: Sample Bound for the Gaussian Trace EstimatorResearch Paper

Motivation

Many computations in scientific computing, statistics and machine learning need the trace of a matrix AAA that is never formed explicitly: AAA may be f(B)f(B)f(B) for a large sparse BBB, an inverse B−1B^{-1}B−1, or a product of operators, and the only access to it is the ability to compute products AzAzAz for chosen vectors zzz. Examples are log-determinant estimation in Gaussian process regression, counting triangles in graphs through trace(B3)\mathrm{trace}(B^3)trace(B3), computing charge densities in electronic structure calculations, and generalized cross-validation in regularized regression. For such matrices the nnn diagonal entries are not available, and computing them one at a time costs nnn matrix–vector products.

Randomized trace estimators replace this by a small number MMM of products: draw random vectors z1,…,zMz_1,\ldots,z_Mz1​,…,zM​ from a fixed distribution with E(ziTAzi)=trace(A)\mathrm{E}(z_i^T A z_i) = \mathrm{trace}(A)E(ziT​Azi​)=trace(A) and average the quadratic forms. Hutchinson (1989) introduced the estimator with Rademacher vectors and computed its variance; Silver and Röder (1997) used Gaussian vectors. Before Avron and Toledo (2011), the analyses of these estimators were variance computations, which do not say how many samples guarantee a given relative accuracy with a given probability. Avron and Toledo gave the first such sample bounds for several estimators, stated in terms of an (ϵ,δ)(\epsilon,\delta)(ϵ,δ) guarantee; this mission formalizes their bound for the Gaussian estimator. Later work (Roosta-Khorasani and Ascher 2015; Cortinovis and Kressner 2022) sharpened these bounds and extended them to indefinite matrices.

Setting

Let A∈Rn×nA \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}A∈Rn×n be symmetric positive semi-definite, and write τ=trace(A)\tau = \mathrm{trace}(A)τ=trace(A). Fix a number of samples M≥1M \ge 1M≥1. Let z1,…,zM∈Rnz_1, \ldots, z_M \in \mathbb{R}^nz1​,…,zM​∈Rn be random vectors whose MnMnMn entries are independent standard normal random variables. The Gaussian trace estimator (Definition 3.1) is

GM=1M∑i=1MziTAzi.G_M = \frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M} z_i^T A z_i .GM​=M1​i=1∑M​ziT​Azi​.

Each term ziTAziz_i^TAz_iziT​Azi​ has expectation trace(A)\mathrm{trace}(A)trace(A), so GMG_MGM​ is unbiased. A randomized trace estimator TTT is an (ϵ,δ)(\epsilon,\delta)(ϵ,δ)-approximator of trace(A)\mathrm{trace}(A)trace(A) (Definition 4.1) if

Pr⁡(∣T−trace(A)∣≤ϵ trace(A))≥1−δ,\Pr\bigl(|T - \mathrm{trace}(A)| \le \epsilon\,\mathrm{trace}(A)\bigr) \ge 1-\delta ,Pr(∣T−trace(A)∣≤ϵtrace(A))≥1−δ,

that is, if its relative error is at most ϵ\epsilonϵ except on an event of probability at most δ\deltaδ.

The analysis uses the eigenvalues λ1,…,λn≥0\lambda_1,\ldots,\lambda_n \ge 0λ1​,…,λn​≥0 of AAA, listed with multiplicity, and the polynomial h(t)=∑s=2n(−2)sts∑∣S∣=s∏i∈Sλih(t) = \sum_{s=2}^{n}(-2)^s t^s \sum_{|S| = s}\prod_{i\in S}\lambda_ih(t)=∑s=2n​(−2)sts∑∣S∣=s​∏i∈S​λi​, where SSS ranges over subsets of {1,…,n}\{1,\ldots,n\}{1,…,n}; it satisfies ∏i(1−2λit)=1−2τt+h(t)\prod_i(1-2\lambda_i t) = 1 - 2\tau t + h(t)∏i​(1−2λi​t)=1−2τt+h(t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2 (corrected)

For every symmetric positive semi-definite AAA, every 0<ϵ≤1/100 < \epsilon \le 1/100<ϵ≤1/10, every 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1 and every natural number MMM with

M≥20 ϵ−2ln⁡(2/δ),M \ge 20\,\epsilon^{-2}\ln(2/\delta),M≥20ϵ−2ln(2/δ),

the estimator GMG_MGM​ is an (ϵ,δ)(\epsilon,\delta)(ϵ,δ)-approximator of trace(A)\mathrm{trace}(A)trace(A). The sample count depends on neither nnn nor AAA.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5.1. For symmetric AAA, E(G1)=trace(A)\mathrm{E}(G_1) = \mathrm{trace}(A)E(G1​)=trace(A) and Var(G1)=2∥A∥F2\mathrm{Var}(G_1) = 2\|A\|_F^2Var(G1​)=2∥A∥F2​.
  2. Eq. (1). For symmetric AAA and every ttt with 2λit<12\lambda_i t < 12λi​t<1 for all iii, the moment generating function of Z=MGMZ = MG_MZ=MGM​ is
mZ(t)=∏i=1n(1−2λit)−M/2=(1−2τt+h(t))−M/2.m_Z(t) = \prod_{i=1}^{n}(1-2\lambda_i t)^{-M/2} = (1 - 2\tau t + h(t))^{-M/2}.mZ​(t)=i=1∏n​(1−2λi​t)−M/2=(1−2τt+h(t))−M/2.
  1. Elementary symmetric sums (p. 8:8). For non-negative x1,…,xnx_1,\ldots,x_nx1​,…,xn​ and 1≤i≤n1\le i\le n1≤i≤n, ∑∣S∣=i∏j∈Sxj≤(∑jxj)i\sum_{|S|=i}\prod_{j\in S}x_j \le (\sum_j x_j)^i∑∣S∣=i​∏j∈S​xj​≤(∑j​xj​)i; hence ∣h(t)∣≤∑j=2n(2τt)j|h(t)| \le \sum_{j=2}^{n}(2\tau t)^j∣h(t)∣≤∑j=2n​(2τt)j for t≥0t\ge0t≥0 when all λi≥0\lambda_i\ge0λi​≥0.
  2. Upper tail (pp. 8:8–8:9). If τ>0\tau > 0τ>0, M≥1M\ge1M≥1 and 0<ϵ≤0.10<\epsilon\le 0.10<ϵ≤0.1, then
Pr⁡(GM≥τ(1+ϵ))≤exp⁡(−Mϵ2/20).\Pr\bigl(G_M \ge \tau(1+\epsilon)\bigr) \le \exp(-M\epsilon^2/20).Pr(GM​≥τ(1+ϵ))≤exp(−Mϵ2/20).
  1. Both tails (p. 8:9). If τ>0\tau>0τ>0, 0<ϵ≤0.10<\epsilon\le0.10<ϵ≤0.1 and M≥20ϵ−2ln⁡(2/δ)M \ge 20\epsilon^{-2}\ln(2/\delta)M≥20ϵ−2ln(2/δ), then Pr⁡(GM≥τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2\Pr(G_M \ge \tau(1+\epsilon)) \le \delta/2Pr(GM​≥τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2 and Pr⁡(GM≤τ(1−ϵ))≤δ/2\Pr(G_M \le \tau(1-\epsilon)) \le \delta/2Pr(GM​≤τ(1−ϵ))≤δ/2.

Significance

The theorem gives a number of matrix–vector products, O(ϵ−2ln⁡(1/δ))O(\epsilon^{-2}\ln(1/\delta))O(ϵ−2ln(1/δ)), that suffices for a relative-error guarantee on the trace of any positive semi-definite matrix, independent of its dimension and spectrum. It is the reference row of the paper's Table I, against which the Hutchinson, normalized Rayleigh-quotient and unit-vector estimators are compared, and it is the form in which trace estimation enters the analysis of randomized algorithms for log-determinants, spectral densities and matrix functions.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been formalized in any proof assistant. The mission produces a machine-checked version with the constant 202020 and the range of ϵ\epsilonϵ made explicit, and with the misprints of the printed argument resolved (see Formalization scope). It also produces reusable pieces: the moment generating function of a Gaussian quadratic form, and the bound on elementary symmetric sums by powers of the power sum. Sharper constants, the removal of the restriction ϵ≤0.1\epsilon\le 0.1ϵ≤0.1, or a direct formalization of the lower tail through a χ2\chi^2χ2 tail bound are welcome as further theorems.

Difficulty

Unbiasedness and the variance formula do not give the result: Chebyshev's inequality with Var(GM)=2∥A∥F2/M≤2τ2/M\mathrm{Var}(G_M) = 2\|A\|_F^2/M \le 2\tau^2/MVar(GM​)=2∥A∥F2​/M≤2τ2/M yields M≥2ϵ−2δ−1M \ge 2\epsilon^{-2}\delta^{-1}M≥2ϵ−2δ−1, with a polynomial rather than logarithmic dependence on 1/δ1/\delta1/δ. A logarithmic bound needs exponential moments of GMG_MGM​, and the exponential moment of zTAzz^TAzzTAz is finite only for ttt below 1/(2λmax⁡)1/(2\lambda_{\max})1/(2λmax​); the argument has to choose ttt inside that range uniformly in the spectrum, using only λmax⁡≤τ\lambda_{\max}\le\tauλmax​≤τ. The second obstacle is distributional: zTAzz^TAzzTAz is not a sum of independent terms in the coordinates of zzz, and reducing it to a weighted sum of independent χ2\chi^2χ2 variables requires the rotation invariance of the standard Gaussian vector. The paper proves only the upper tail with an explicit constant and states that the lower tail follows "using the same technique"; that step has to be supplied.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ; "symmetric positive semi-definite" is A.PosSemidef, "symmetric" is A.IsHermitian, and eigenvalues are Matrix.IsHermitian.eigenvalues. The sample space is Fin M → Fin n → ℝ with the product measure of MnMnMn copies of gaussianReal 0 1, so the law of the samples is constructed, not assumed; GM(ω)=(M:R)−1∑iωi⋅(Aωi)G_M(\omega) = (M:\mathbb{R})^{-1}\sum_i \omega_i\cdot(A\omega_i)GM​(ω)=(M:R)−1∑i​ωi​⋅(Aωi​). Probabilities are Measure.real; the moment generating function is Mathlib's mgf; the variance is Mathlib's variance, and Lemma 5.1 asserts square integrability so that neither the integral nor the variance takes its default value. The sample count is a natural number M≥1M\ge1M≥1; ϵ\epsilonϵ and δ\deltaδ are real.

Corrections of the printed text, each recorded in the item's Formalization Note:

  • Theorem 5.2 is printed without a range for ϵ\epsilonϵ and is false without one (for rank-one AAA, ϵ=100\epsilon=100ϵ=100, δ=e−400\delta=e^{-400}δ=e−400 the threshold allows M=1M=1M=1, while Pr⁡(χ12>101)≈e−50>δ\Pr(\chi^2_1>101)\approx e^{-50}>\deltaPr(χ12​>101)≈e−50>δ). The proof gives its key bound "for ϵ≤0.1\epsilon\le0.1ϵ≤0.1"; the goal is stated for 0<ϵ≤1/100<\epsilon\le 1/100<ϵ≤1/10.
  • Eq. (1) is printed for ∣λit∣≤12|\lambda_i t|\le\frac12∣λi​t∣≤21​, which admits 1−2λit=01-2\lambda_it = 01−2λi​t=0, where the moment generating function is infinite. It is stated for 2λit<12\lambda_i t<12λi​t<1. The page's sum over subsets of "the set Λ\LambdaΛ of eigenvalues" is taken over index sets, so repeated eigenvalues count with multiplicity.
  • The last paragraph of the proof prints Pr⁡(GM≤τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2\Pr(G_M\le\tau(1+\epsilon))\le\delta/2Pr(GM​≤τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2 for the upper tail and Pr⁡(∣GM−τ∣≤τ(1+ϵ))≤δ\Pr(|G_M-\tau|\le\tau(1+\epsilon))\le\deltaPr(∣GM​−τ∣≤τ(1+ϵ))≤δ for the conclusion; the intended statements are Pr⁡(GM≥τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2\Pr(G_M\ge\tau(1+\epsilon))\le\delta/2Pr(GM​≥τ(1+ϵ))≤δ/2 and Pr⁡(∣GM−τ∣>ϵτ)≤δ\Pr(|G_M-\tau|>\epsilon\tau)\le\deltaPr(∣GM​−τ∣>ϵτ)≤δ. Milestone 5 states the upper and lower tail bounds.
  • Lemma 5.1 is followed by the remark that it "also applies when AAA is non-symmetric"; this is false for the variance and is not formalized. Definition 3.1 says "positive-definite"; the estimator is defined for every matrix and each theorem carries its own hypothesis.
  • The one-sided tail milestones assume trace(A)>0\mathrm{trace}(A)>0trace(A)>0; for A=0A=0A=0 their events are certain, while the goal holds trivially.

A formalization that makes the goal trivial is ruled out: the estimator's law is the explicit product Gaussian measure rather than a hypothesis, MMM ranges over all natural numbers above the threshold, and the approximator predicate is evaluated on the genuine event ∣GM−trace(A)∣≤ϵ trace(A)|G_M - \mathrm{trace}(A)|\le\epsilon\,\mathrm{trace}(A)∣GM​−trace(A)∣≤ϵtrace(A).

A complete development needs rotation invariance of the standard Gaussian on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn (Mathlib's stdGaussian_map), the moment generating function of a squared standard normal, independence of products of Gaussian vectors, and a Chernoff bound from the moment generating function. The Gaussian quadratic-form results (milestones 1 and 2) are reusable for the other Gaussian estimators of the paper, such as the rank estimator of Lemma 5.3. Proofs of any milestone, alternative proofs of the lower tail, and helper lemmas on χ2\chi^2χ2 moment generating functions are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Avron and S. Toledo, Randomized algorithms for estimating the trace of an implicit symmetric positive semi-definite matrix, Journal of the ACM 58(2), Article 8, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1145/1944345.1944349
  • M. F. Hutchinson, A stochastic estimator of the trace of the influence matrix for Laplacian smoothing splines, Communications in Statistics – Simulation and Computation 18(3), 1059–1076, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918908812806
  • R. N. Silver and H. Röder, Calculation of densities of states and spectral functions by Chebyshev recursion and maximum entropy, Physical Review E 56(4), 4822–4829, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.56.4822
  • F. Roosta-Khorasani and U. Ascher, Improved bounds on sample size for implicit matrix trace estimators, Foundations of Computational Mathematics 15, 1187–1212, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-014-9220-1
  • A. Cortinovis and D. Kressner, On randomized trace estimates for indefinite matrices with an application to determinants, Foundations of Computational Mathematics 22, 875–903, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-021-09525-9
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers 2: A Threshold Nash Equilibrium under Announced Fixed-Discount PricingResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of fashion and seasonal goods sell at a premium price early in the season and mark down later. When customers anticipate the markdown, some of them wait, and the seller's pricing problem becomes a game between the seller and a population of forward-looking (strategic) customers. Aviv and Pazgal (MSOM 10(3), 2008) study this game in a model with limited inventory, stochastic arrivals and valuations that decline over the season, under two classes of seller policies: contingent pricing, where the discount depends on the inventory left, and announced fixed-discount pricing, where the seller commits to both prices upfront. Their numerical study (§7.3) compares the two classes and finds that precommitment can raise expected revenue by up to about 8%.

That comparison needs, for every announced price path, the customers' equilibrium response. Theorem 2 of the paper (p. 348) supplies it: a threshold purchasing policy, pinned down by a scalar fixed-point equation for the probability that a waiting customer is served. This mission formalizes Theorem 2. A companion mission of the same series formalizes Theorem 1, the contingent-pricing counterpart.

Setting

A seller has Q≥1Q \ge 1Q≥1 units to sell over a season [0,H][0, H][0,H], split at a fixed time TTT with 0<T≤H0 < T \le H0<T≤H. Customers arrive by a Poisson process with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Customer jjj has a base valuation VjV_jVj​ drawn from a continuous distribution FFF (tail Fˉ=1−F\bar F = 1 - FFˉ=1−F), and at time ttt values the product at Vj(t)=Vje−αtV_j(t) = V_j e^{-\alpha t}Vj​(t)=Vj​e−αt, where the decline factor α≥0\alpha \ge 0α≥0 is common to all customers.

Under an announced price path the seller commits to a premium price p1p_1p1​ on [0,T)[0, T)[0,T) and a discount price p2≤p1p_2 \le p_1p2​≤p1​ from TTT on; p2p_2p2​ does not depend on the remaining inventory. Customers know the initial inventory but not the current one.

A customer arriving at t<Tt < Tt<T buys immediately if and only if (i) the current surplus V(t)−p1V(t) - p_1V(t)−p1​ is nonnegative and (ii) it is at least the expected surplus of waiting,

ω⋅max⁡{V(T)−p2,0},\omega\cdot\max\{V(T) - p_2, 0\},ω⋅max{V(T)−p2​,0},

where ω\omegaω is the probability that a unit will be allocated to the customer at time TTT. Units left at TTT are rationed at random among the customers who request one.

For a threshold function ψ\psiψ on [0,T)[0, T)[0,T) the paper defines three segment rates: ΛI(ψ)\Lambda_I(\psi)ΛI​(ψ), the expected number of customers who buy at p1p_1p1​; ΛS(ψ,p1,p2)\Lambda_S(\psi, p_1, p_2)ΛS​(ψ,p1​,p2​), those who could buy at p1p_1p1​ but wait and want to buy at p2p_2p2​; and ΛW(p1,p2)\Lambda_W(p_1, p_2)ΛW​(p1​,p2​), those whose valuation was below p1p_1p1​ and who want to buy at p2p_2p2​. Each is λ\lambdaλ times an integral over [0,T][0, T][0,T] of Fˉ\bar FFˉ at scaled prices (p. 345). With P(x∣Λ)P(x \mid \Lambda)P(x∣Λ) the Poisson probabilities, the allocation probability of qqq units is

A(q∣Λ)=∑y=0∞qmax⁡{1+y,q} P(y∣Λ).A(q \mid \Lambda) = \sum_{y=0}^{\infty} \frac{q}{\max\{1+y, q\}}\,P(y \mid \Lambda).A(q∣Λ)=y=0∑∞​max{1+y,q}q​P(y∣Λ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 348)

For w∈[0,1]w \in [0,1]w∈[0,1] let

ψA(t)=max⁡{p1,p1−wp21−we−α(T−t)},0≤t<T,(7)\psi_A(t) = \max\left\{p_1, \frac{p_1 - wp_2}{1 - we^{-\alpha(T-t)}}\right\},\qquad 0 \le t < T, \tag{7}ψA​(t)=max{p1​,1−we−α(T−t)p1​−wp2​​},0≤t<T,(7)

and suppose www solves

w=∑x=0Q−1P(x∣ΛI(ψA))⋅A(Q−x∣ΛS(ψA,p1,p2)+ΛW(p1,p2)).(8)w = \sum_{x=0}^{Q-1} P\big(x \mid \Lambda_I(\psi_A)\big)\cdot A\big(Q-x \mid \Lambda_S(\psi_A, p_1, p_2) + \Lambda_W(p_1, p_2)\big). \tag{8}w=x=0∑Q−1​P(x∣ΛI​(ψA​))⋅A(Q−x∣ΛS​(ψA​,p1​,p2​)+ΛW​(p1​,p2​)).(8)

Then, when all other customers use ψA\psi_AψA​ (so that a waiting customer is served with the probability on the right of (8)), every customer arriving at t∈[0,T)t \in [0, T)t∈[0,T) buys immediately if and only if V(t)≥ψA(t)V(t) \ge \psi_A(t)V(t)≥ψA​(t): the symmetric threshold profile is a Nash equilibrium.

Milestones: the two cases of the proof (p. 358)

  1. If e−α(T−t)≤p2/p1e^{-\alpha(T-t)} \le p_2/p_1e−α(T−t)≤p2​/p1​, the threshold is p1p_1p1​.
  2. If e−α(T−t)>p2/p1e^{-\alpha(T-t)} > p_2/p_1e−α(T−t)>p2​/p1​, the threshold is (p1−wp2)/(1−we−α(T−t))≥p1(p_1 - wp_2)/(1 - we^{-\alpha(T-t)}) \ge p_1(p1​−wp2​)/(1−we−α(T−t))≥p1​.

Significance

Theorem 2 reduces the customers' equilibrium under an announced path to a single scalar www. Everything downstream in §5 and §7 rests on it: the seller's expected revenue πA/S(p1,p2)\pi_{A/S}(p_1, p_2)πA/S​(p1​,p2​) (p. 348) is written in terms of ψA\psi_AψA​, the seller's optimal announced path maximizes it, and the comparison between announced and contingent pricing uses the resulting value πA/S∗\pi^*_{A/S}πA/S∗​. The theorem also explains the qualitative prediction of the model: the threshold exceeds p1p_1p1​ exactly when the announced discount is deep relative to the decline of valuations, and it rises with the perceived availability www.

The result is proved in the paper; to the best of our search it has no machine-checked proof. A formal development contributes the model objects (segment rates for threshold policies, the allocation probability for random rationing among Poisson requesters) in a form reusable by the rest of the series and by other strategic-customer pricing models, and a checked proof of the equilibrium property. The existence of a solution to (8) is not proved in the paper and is a natural further target.

Difficulty

The best-response part of the argument is elementary once the availability is known. The substance of the statement lies in the availability itself: the probability that a waiting customer is served is not a free parameter but the one generated, through (8), by the other customers' use of the same threshold. A formalization must connect the segment rates, the Poisson counts and random rationing into one expression and keep the fixed-point coupling between www and ψA\psi_AψA​ intact; dropping it turns the theorem into a one-line inequality about an arbitrary www. The division by 1−we−α(T−t)1 - we^{-\alpha(T-t)}1−we−α(T−t) also degenerates when w=1w = 1w=1 and α=0\alpha = 0α=0, and has to be excluded explicitly.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in namespace SeasonalPricing.Announced. Conventions:

  • Time is real; base valuations have law μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ, FFF = ProbabilityTheory.cdf μ, and continuity of FFF (the paper's "continuous distribution") is a hypothesis of the goal. No support condition on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) is imposed; the statement quantifies over every real base valuation VVV.
  • ΛI,ΛS,ΛW\Lambda_I, \Lambda_S, \Lambda_WΛI​,ΛS​,ΛW​ are interval integrals over [0,T][0, T][0,T] exactly as printed. P(x∣Λ)=e−ΛΛx/x!P(x \mid \Lambda) = e^{-\Lambda}\Lambda^x/x!P(x∣Λ)=e−ΛΛx/x! is written out; A(q∣Λ)A(q\mid\Lambda)A(q∣Λ) is the infinite series (tsum) as printed, not its closed form.
  • availability is the right-hand side of (8), with ψA\psi_AψA​ built from www by (7).

Readings of the paper's informal words:

  • "Nash equilibrium" is read as the best-response property the paper's proof checks: against the availability generated by (8), the immediate-purchase rule of p. 344 coincides with the threshold ψA\psi_AψA​ at every t∈[0,T)t \in [0, T)t∈[0,T) and every valuation. The paper defines no strategy space beyond threshold rules.
  • "www is a solution to (8)": the theorem is conditional on a solution; its existence is neither assumed elsewhere nor claimed. The conditional statement has content only when (8) has a solution, which the paper does not prove.
  • www as a likelihood: 0≤w≤10 \le w \le 10≤w≤1 is a hypothesis (it also follows from (8)).
  • Added hypothesis: α>0\alpha > 0α>0 or w<1w < 1w<1, which keeps 1−we−α(T−t)>01 - we^{-\alpha(T-t)} > 01−we−α(T−t)>0 for t<Tt < Tt<T; the paper's formula is undefined when it fails. In the milestones the same condition appears as we−α(T−t)<1we^{-\alpha(T-t)} < 1we−α(T−t)<1, and 0<p10 < p_10<p1​ is added so that p2/p1p_2/p_1p2​/p1​ is meaningful.
  • The rule on [T,H][T, H][T,H] (buy at TTT iff V(T)>p2V(T) > p_2V(T)>p2​) is part of the model and is not restated; HHH does not enter the statements.

A formalization in which www is an arbitrary number in [0,1][0,1][0,1], not tied to (8), is ruled out: it is the best-response lemma alone, not Theorem 2. Contributions welcome: proofs of the two milestones and the goal; lemmas such as 0≤A(q∣Λ)≤10 \le A(q\mid\Lambda) \le 10≤A(q∣Λ)≤1 and summability of its series; the closed form of A(q∣Λ)A(q \mid \Lambda)A(q∣Λ) printed on p. 346; and an existence result for (8).

Selected references

  • Y. Aviv and A. Pazgal, Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(3):339–359, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0183
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • X. Su, Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior, Management Science 53(5):726–741, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0667
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Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector III: A Sparsity Oracle Inequality for the LassoResearch Paper

Motivation

In high-dimensional regression the number of candidate predictors MMM can far exceed the number of observations nnn. A regression function can then be estimated only if it is well approximated by a combination of a few elements of a large dictionary. The Lasso is the most widely used estimator in this regime. The question this mission formalizes is how well the Lasso predicts when the truth is not assumed to be sparse, or even to lie in the span of the dictionary.

A sparsity oracle inequality answers it. It bounds the prediction error of the estimator by the error of the best sparse approximation of the truth, which only an oracle knowing the truth could compute, plus a remainder proportional to the sparsity of that approximation times log⁡M/n\log M/nlogM/n. Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 2009) proved such an inequality for the Lasso under their restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition. Earlier oracle inequalities for Lasso-type estimators in fixed design (Bunea, Tsybakov and Wegkamp, 2006–2007) required the Gram matrix to be positive definite or to satisfy a mutual-coherence condition. The RE condition is weaker and allows M≫nM\gg nM≫n, and it is now the standard hypothesis in this literature.

Setting

A dictionary f1,…,fMf_1,\dots,f_Mf1​,…,fM​ is evaluated at fixed points Z1,…,ZnZ_1,\dots,Z_nZ1​,…,Zn​. This gives the design matrix X=(fj(Zi))∈Rn×MX=(f_j(Z_i))\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X=(fj​(Zi​))∈Rn×M and, for an unknown regression function fff, the vector f=(f(Z1),…,f(Zn))⊤f=(f(Z_1),\dots,f(Z_n))^\topf=(f(Z1​),…,f(Zn​))⊤. The observations are

y=f+W,W1,…,Wn independent N(0,σ2), σ>0.y=f+W,\qquad W_1,\dots,W_n\ \text{independent}\ \mathcal N(0,\sigma^2),\ \sigma>0 .y=f+W,W1​,…,Wn​ independent N(0,σ2), σ>0.

Nothing is assumed about fff. For v∈Rnv\in\mathbb R^nv∈Rn the empirical norm is ∥v∥n=(1n∑ivi2)1/2\|v\|_n=(\frac1n\sum_iv_i^2)^{1/2}∥v∥n​=(n1​∑i​vi2​)1/2, and for β∈RM\beta\in\mathbb R^Mβ∈RM we write fβ=Xβf_\beta=X\betafβ​=Xβ. The column norms ∥fj∥n\|f_j\|_n∥fj​∥n​ are assumed nonzero, with fmax⁡=max⁡j∥fj∥nf_{\max}=\max_j\|f_j\|_nfmax​=maxj​∥fj​∥n​ and fmin⁡=min⁡j∥fj∥nf_{\min}=\min_j\|f_j\|_nfmin​=minj​∥fj​∥n​. The support of β\betaβ is J(β)={j:βj≠0}J(\beta)=\{j:\beta_j\neq0\}J(β)={j:βj​=0} and its sparsity is M(β)=∣J(β)∣\mathcal M(\beta)=|J(\beta)|M(β)=∣J(β)∣.

The Lasso β^L\hat\beta_Lβ^​L​ is any minimiser of

1n∑i=1n(yi−(Xβ)i)2+2r∑j=1M∥fj∥n∣βj∣,r=Aσlog⁡Mn, A>22,\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\big(y_i-(X\beta)_i\big)^2+2r\sum_{j=1}^M\|f_j\|_n|\beta_j|,\qquad r=A\sigma\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}},\ A>2\sqrt2,n1​i=1∑n​(yi​−(Xβ)i​)2+2rj=1∑M​∥fj​∥n​∣βj​∣,r=AσnlogM​​, A>22​,

and f^L=Xβ^L\hat f_L=X\hat\beta_Lf^​L​=Xβ^​L​.

Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) holds with constant κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 if, for every J0⊆{1,…,M}J_0\subseteq\{1,\dots,M\}J0​⊆{1,…,M} with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s and every δ≠0\delta\neq0δ=0 with ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​,

κn ∣δJ0∣2≤∣Xδ∣2.\kappa\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le|X\delta|_2 .κn​∣δJ0​​∣2​≤∣Xδ∣2​.

The paper's κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is the largest such constant.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1

Fix ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, M≥2M\ge2M≥2, 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M, and let RE(s,(3+4/ε)fmax⁡/fmin⁡)(s,(3+4/\varepsilon)f_{\max}/f_{\min})(s,(3+4/ε)fmax​/fmin​) hold with constant κ\kappaκ. With probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8, every Lasso solution satisfies, simultaneously for all β\betaβ with M(β)≤s\mathcal M(\beta)\le sM(β)≤s,

∥f^L−f∥n2≤(1+ε){∥fβ−f∥n2+C(ε)fmax⁡2A2σ2κ2 M(β)log⁡Mn},C(ε)=4(2+ε)2ε(1+ε).\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le(1+\varepsilon)\Big\{\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+C(\varepsilon)\frac{f_{\max}^2A^2\sigma^2}{\kappa^2}\,\frac{\mathcal M(\beta)\log M}{n}\Big\},\qquad C(\varepsilon)=\frac{4(2+\varepsilon)^2}{\varepsilon(1+\varepsilon)} .∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤(1+ε){∥fβ​−f∥n2​+C(ε)κ2fmax2​A2σ2​nM(β)logM​},C(ε)=ε(1+ε)4(2+ε)2​.

Milestones

  1. (B.4): the noise event A=⋂j{2∣Vj∣≤r∥fj∥n}\mathcal A=\bigcap_j\{2|V_j|\le r\|f_j\|_n\}A=⋂j​{2∣Vj​∣≤r∥fj​∥n​}, with Vj=n−1∑iXijWiV_j=n^{-1}\sum_iX_{ij}W_iVj​=n−1∑i​Xij​Wi​, satisfies P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8P(\mathcal A^c)\le M^{1-A^2/8}P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8.
  2. (B.1) on A\mathcal AA: for every Lasso solution and every β\betaβ,
∥f^L−f∥n2+r∑j∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣≤∥fβ−f∥n2+4r∑j∈J(β)∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣.\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2+r\sum_j\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j|\le\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+4r\sum_{j\in J(\beta)}\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j| .∥f^​L​−f∥n2​+rj∑​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣≤∥fβ​−f∥n2​+4rj∈J(β)∑​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣.
  1. Lemma B.1: the same inequality with probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8.
  2. Cone step: in the case ε∥fβ−f∥n2<4r∑J(β)∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣\varepsilon\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2<4r\sum_{J(\beta)}\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j|ε∥fβ​−f∥n2​<4r∑J(β)​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣, the difference β^L−β\hat\beta_L-\betaβ^​L​−β lies in the cone with constant (3+4/ε)fmax⁡/fmin⁡(3+4/\varepsilon)f_{\max}/f_{\min}(3+4/ε)fmax​/fmin​ at J(β)J(\beta)J(β).
  3. Inequality before decoupling: ∥f^L−f∥n2≤∥fβ−f∥n2+4rfmax⁡κ−1M(β) (∥f^L−f∥n+∥fβ−f∥n)\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+4rf_{\max}\kappa^{-1}\sqrt{\mathcal M(\beta)}\,(\|\hat f_L-f\|_n+\|f_\beta-f\|_n)∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤∥fβ​−f∥n2​+4rfmax​κ−1M(β)​(∥f^​L​−f∥n​+∥fβ​−f∥n​).
  4. Decoupled bound: ∥f^L−f∥n2≤b+1b−1∥fβ−f∥n2+8b2fmax⁡2(b−1)κ2r2M(β)\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le\frac{b+1}{b-1}\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+\frac{8b^2f_{\max}^2}{(b-1)\kappa^2}r^2\mathcal M(\beta)∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤b−1b+1​∥fβ​−f∥n2​+(b−1)κ28b2fmax2​​r2M(β) for all b>1b>1b>1.
  5. Corollary 6.2: the same oracle inequality with γ\gammaγ in place of κ\kappaκ and no global RE assumption. The infimum runs over those β\betaβ with M(β)≤s\mathcal M(\beta)\le sM(β)≤s whose support alone satisfies the restricted eigenvalue inequality with constant γ\gammaγ.

Significance

The theorem says that, up to the factor 1+ε1+\varepsilon1+ε and a remainder of order M(β)log⁡M/n\mathcal M(\beta)\log M/nM(β)logM/n, the Lasso predicts as well as the best sss-sparse linear combination of the dictionary. This is the case even when fff is not sparse and not in the span of the dictionary. The remainder is the parametric rate for M(β)\mathcal M(\beta)M(β) parameters, inflated by log⁡M\log MlogM and by the ill-posedness factor fmax⁡2/κ2f_{\max}^2/\kappa^2fmax2​/κ2. Together with Theorem 5.1 of the same paper (mission II of this series), it shows that the Lasso and the Dantzig selector are within the same distance of the sparse oracle. The oracle inequality is used in aggregation, in model selection, and as a black box in later sparse-estimation papers.

The result is proved in the paper. It has not been formalized: at the time of writing, no Lasso oracle inequality and no probabilistic Lasso bound exist on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. What this mission contributes is a machine-checked proof of the paper's Theorem 6.1 with an explicit constant C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε). The paper leaves C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε) unspecified, and its proof fixes the value used here. The mission also formalizes the Gaussian-tail step (B.4) and the deterministic basic inequality (B.1), both of which are shared with the paper's other Lasso results.

Difficulty

There is no sparse truth, so the usual argument does not apply. That argument places the error β^L−β∗\hat\beta_L-\beta^*β^​L​−β∗ in the RE cone and reads off a rate. Here the competitor β\betaβ is arbitrary, and the approximation error ∥fβ−f∥n\|f_\beta-f\|_n∥fβ​−f∥n​ can dominate the penalty terms, in which case the error is not in the cone. The RE assumption can be used only where the error does lie in a cone, and the cone constant available there depends on ε\varepsilonε and on the column-norm ratio fmax⁡/fmin⁡f_{\max}/f_{\min}fmax​/fmin​, because the penalty is weighted while RE is stated for unweighted vectors. What RE then yields is an inequality quadratic in ∥f^L−f∥n\|\hat f_L-f\|_n∥f^​L​−f∥n​ with a cross term, not the (1+ε)(1+\varepsilon)(1+ε) form directly, and the constant C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε) is determined by how that cross term is absorbed. On the probabilistic side, the whole argument must run on one event of probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8. That event may depend neither on β\betaβ nor on the choice of minimiser. The Lasso need not have a unique solution.

Formalization scope

  • The dictionary enters only through X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M (Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ) and the target only through f∈Rnf\in\mathbb R^nf∈Rn, which is arbitrary. The noise is a family W : Fin n → Ω → ℝ of measurable, independent random variables, each with law gaussianReal 0 σ², and σ>0\sigma>0σ>0.
  • The Lasso is an argmin predicate, and every statement is made for every minimiser. "With probability at least ppp" means a measurable event EEE with P(E)≥pP(E)\ge pP(E)≥p, chosen before the competitor β\betaβ and the minimiser.
  • RE is stated through a witness κ>0\kappa>0κ>0. Since κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is attained and every bound decreases in κ\kappaκ, this is equivalent to the paper's form, and it avoids a real infimum over an empty set.
  • The infimum over {β:M(β)≤s}\{\beta:\mathcal M(\beta)\le s\}{β:M(β)≤s} is written as "for every such β\betaβ". This is equivalent, because the set contains β=0\beta=0β=0 and the bracket is nonnegative.
  • Correction/strengthening. The printed theorem has an unspecified C(ε)>0C(\varepsilon)>0C(ε)>0. The goal instead uses the value C(ε)=4(2+ε)2/(ε(1+ε))C(\varepsilon)=4(2+\varepsilon)^2/(\varepsilon(1+\varepsilon))C(ε)=4(2+ε)2/(ε(1+ε)) that the proof yields with b=1+2/εb=1+2/\varepsilonb=1+2/ε, and this implies the printed statement. Corollary 6.2 uses the same explicit constant.
  • The standing assumptions of Section 2 (M≥2M\ge2M≥2 and every ∥fj∥n≠0\|f_j\|_n\neq0∥fj​∥n​=0) are hypotheses of every theorem.
  • Some formalizations would make the result trivial, and they are excluded here. The noise must be exactly i.i.d. N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 and must enter only through y=f+Wy=f+Wy=f+W. The target fff must not be restricted to Xβ∗X\beta^*Xβ∗. The event must be measurable. The constant must depend on ε\varepsilonε alone.
  • A single definition file provides the empirical norms, fmax⁡f_{\max}fmax​, fmin⁡f_{\min}fmin​, support and sparsity, the weighted Lasso, RE and its single-set version (the family Λs,γ,c0\Lambda_{s,\gamma,c_0}Λs,γ,c0​​ of Corollary 6.2), the Gaussian noise model and the event A\mathcal AA. The same objects appear in the other missions of this series. Gaussian-tail and union-bound lemmas proved along the way are reusable, and contributions of such lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. Cited version: arXiv:0801.1095v3; DOI 10.1214/08-AOS620.
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron. J. Statist. 1, 169–194, 2007. DOI 10.1214/07-EJS008.
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Aggregation for Gaussian regression, Ann. Statist. 35(4), 1674–1697, 2007. DOI 10.1214/009053606000001587.
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58(1), 267–288, 1996. DOI 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Single-Period Multiproduct Inventory Models with Substitution: No Order for a Product Stocked Above Its Base-Stock LevelResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer or manufacturer that stocks several grades of the same item (memory chips of different speeds, steel of different strengths, seats in fare classes) can often meet demand for a lower grade with a higher one when the lower grade runs out. This downward substitution changes the stocking decision: each product now protects the demand of every class below it, so the optimal stock of one product depends on the stock of all the others, and the single-product newsvendor answer no longer applies product by product.

Bassok, Anupindi and Akella (Operations Research 47(4), 1999) set up a single-period model with NNN products and full downward substitution and showed that the optimal ordering policy still has a simple structure: there is a base-stock vector y∗y^*y∗; products below it are ordered up to it, and a product already at or above its base-stock level is not ordered at all. Earlier work on multiproduct ordering, Veinott (1965) and Ignall and Veinott (1969), gave monotonicity conditions through a substitute matrix condition on the Hessian of the cost, which is hard to verify for a general NNN-product substitution structure; the paper works instead with concavity, submodularity and explicit first partial derivatives. Two-product substitution models had been analysed by McGillivray and Silver (1978) and Parlar and Goyal (1984).

Setting

There are NNN products and NNN demand classes, both numbered 1,…,N1,\dots,N1,…,N. Class iii can be served by product jjj whenever j≤ij \le ij≤i, at a unit substitution cost bbb when j<ij < ij<i. Each class iii has unit revenue pip_ipi​ and unit backorder cost πi\pi_iπi​; each product jjj has unit purchase cost cjc_jcj​ and effective unit salvage value sjs_jsj​ (salvage value minus holding cost, possibly negative). Put aji=pia_{ji} = p_iaji​=pi​ if j=ij = ij=i, aji=pi−ba_{ji} = p_i - baji​=pi​−b if j<ij < ij<i, and Tk=pk+πk−bT_k = p_k + \pi_k - bTk​=pk​+πk​−b. The standing assumptions are: (1) πi+pi≥πj+pj\pi_i + p_i \ge \pi_j + p_jπi​+pi​≥πj​+pj​ for i<ji < ji<j; (2) si≥sjs_i \ge s_jsi​≥sj​ for i<ji < ji<j; (3) aij+πj−si≥0a_{ij} + \pi_j - s_i \ge 0aij​+πj​−si​≥0 for i≤ji \le ji≤j.

The sequence of events: the starting inventory xxx is observed; stock is raised to y≥xy \ge xy≥x at unit costs ccc; the demand vector ddd is realized; stock is allocated to classes; leftovers are salvaged. For fixed yyy and ddd the allocation is the linear program

G(y,d)=max⁡∑i∑j≤iajiwji+∑isivi−∑iπiuiG(y,d) = \max \sum_{i}\sum_{j \le i} a_{ji} w_{ji} + \sum_i s_i v_i - \sum_i \pi_i u_iG(y,d)=maxi∑​j≤i∑​aji​wji​+i∑​si​vi​−i∑​πi​ui​

subject to ui+∑j≤iwji=diu_i + \sum_{j\le i} w_{ji} = d_iui​+∑j≤i​wji​=di​, vj+∑i≥jwji=yjv_j + \sum_{i \ge j} w_{ji} = y_jvj​+∑i≥j​wji​=yj​, and w,u,v≥0w, u, v \ge 0w,u,v≥0, where wjiw_{ji}wji​ is the amount of product jjj given to class iii, uiu_iui​ the shortage of class iii and vjv_jvj​ the leftover of product jjj. The expected profit is

P(x,y)=−∑kck(yk−xk)+E G(y,D),P(x,y) = -\sum_k c_k (y_k - x_k) + \mathbb E\, G(y, D),P(x,y)=−k∑​ck​(yk​−xk​)+EG(y,D),

and the ordering problem is max⁡y≥xP(x,y)\max_{y \ge x} P(x,y)maxy≥x​P(x,y); a maximizer is an optimal level yˉ(x)\bar y(x)yˉ​(x).

Allocation Algorithm (A) serves the classes in the order 1,2,…,N1,2,\dots,N1,2,…,N, class iii first from product iii and then from the leftovers of products i−1,…,1i-1,\dots,1i−1,…,1. The subproblem shortage SjkS^k_jSjk​ is the unmet demand of class jjj when (A) runs on the classes k,…,jk,\dots,jk,…,j with the products k,…,jk,\dots,jk,…,j only; S⃗a,nk=0\vec S^k_{a,n} = 0Sa,nk​=0 means Smk=0S^k_m = 0Smk​=0 for all a≤m≤na \le m \le na≤m≤n. The paper's first partial derivatives of PPP are sums of salvage values, substitution costs and the TkT_kTk​, weighted by probabilities of such shortage events.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

With y∗y^*y∗ a maximizer of P(0,⋅)P(0,\cdot)P(0,⋅) over y≥0y \ge 0y≥0, every optimal level yˉ\bar yyˉ​ for every starting inventory x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 satisfies

xi≥yi∗  ⟹  yˉi=xi.x_i \ge y^*_i \implies \bar y_i = x_i .xi​≥yi∗​⟹yˉ​i​=xi​.

Milestones

  • Proposition 1: Algorithm (A) is feasible and optimal for the allocation LP, and its value is G(y,d)G(y,d)G(y,d).
  • Proposition 2: y↦P(x,y)y \mapsto P(x,y)y↦P(x,y) is concave and submodular on {y≥0}\{y \ge 0\}{y≥0}.
  • Eq. (4): the explicit formula for ∂P/∂yi\partial P/\partial y_i∂P/∂yi​ in terms of shortage probabilities.
  • Theorem 1: there is y∗≥0y^* \ge 0y∗≥0 with yˉ(x)=y∗\bar y(x) = y^*yˉ​(x)=y∗ whenever 0≤x≤y∗0 \le x \le y^*0≤x≤y∗.
  • Lemmas 1, 2, 3, 5: identities and monotonicity properties of the shortage probabilities used to compare ∂P/∂yi\partial P/\partial y_i∂P/∂yi​ and ∂P/∂yi+1\partial P/\partial y_{i+1}∂P/∂yi+1​.

Significance

Theorems 1 and 2 give the optimal ordering policy of the substitution model its base-stock form: a vector y∗y^*y∗, computed once, determines the decision for every starting inventory in the region x≤y∗x \le y^*x≤y∗ and fixes the order of every overstocked product elsewhere. The paper builds its bounds on y∗y^*y∗, its iterative algorithm for two products and its computational study of the value of substitution (§3) on this structure. Proposition 1 turns the second-stage linear program into a closed-form greedy allocation, which is what makes the derivative formula (4) explicit.

The results are proved in the paper, but none of them has been machine-checked. Several steps of the paper are informal: Proposition 1 is proved by reference to Monge sequences of transportation problems, the proof of Theorem 2 treats only the adjacent pair j=i+1j = i+1j=i+1, and the paper uses independence of demand classes, densities and a unique optimal level without stating them. A formal development makes these hypotheses explicit and checks each step. The model, the greedy allocation and the shortage calculus are reusable for other multi-product newsvendor and assortment models.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for Theorem 2 is the one-dimensional one: if xi≥yi∗x_i \ge y^*_ixi​≥yi∗​ then ∂P/∂yi≤0\partial P/\partial y_i \le 0∂P/∂yi​≤0 at yˉ\bar yyˉ​, so product iii should not be raised. It fails because ∂P/∂yi\partial P/\partial y_i∂P/∂yi​ depends on the other coordinates: at yˉ\bar yyˉ​ some products are raised above xxx and others kept at xj>yj∗x_j > y^*_jxj​>yj∗​, and concavity plus submodularity alone do not control the sign. For a general concave submodular function the conclusion is false; a three-variable quadratic in which raising one coordinate lowers the optimal level of a second one, which in turn raises the marginal value of the first, is a counterexample. The proof has to use the specific structure of the substitution model, through the pairwise comparison of the partial derivatives in Eq. (4). The derivative formula itself requires a careful account of how an extra unit of product iii propagates through the greedy allocation of every later class.

Formalization scope

Products and classes are indexed by Fin N (the paper's index kkk is Lean index k−1k-1k−1); stocks, demands and prices are real. The allocation LP is encoded with the upward arcs wjiw_{ji}wji​, i<ji < ji<j, forbidden (fixed to 000), as in the paper's proof of Proposition 1; GGG is the supremum of the LP objective. The demand law is a product ν1⊗⋯⊗νN\nu_1 \otimes \dots \otimes \nu_Nν1​⊗⋯⊗νN​. Submodularity is the lattice inequality P(x,y∨y′)+P(x,y∧y′)≤P(x,y)+P(x,y′)P(x, y \vee y') + P(x, y \wedge y') \le P(x,y) + P(x,y')P(x,y∨y′)+P(x,y∧y′)≤P(x,y)+P(x,y′), which is equivalent to the paper's nonpositive cross partials (Definition 2) for twice differentiable functions. Derivatives are stated with HasDerivAt, and the derivative inequalities of Lemmas 2 and 5 in the stronger monotone form, so that no statement is made true by a junk value of deriv. The "…" in Eq. (4) and in the lemmas are expanded as finite sums with the general term inferred from the printed first and last terms.

Hypotheses the paper uses without stating, made explicit here:

  • the substitution cost is nonnegative, b≥0b \ge 0b≥0 (Proposition 1 is false for b<0b < 0b<0);
  • the demand classes are independent (product forms in Lemma 3 and Appendix B);
  • each demand is nonnegative, has finite mean and has a density;
  • si<ci<pi+πis_i < c_i < p_i + \pi_isi​<ci​<pi​+πi​ for every product (Theorem 1's proof);
  • every demand law charges every nonempty open interval of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), standing in for the uniqueness of the optimal level yˉ(x)\bar y(x)yˉ​(x) that the notation presupposes (Theorems 1 and 2).

The goal quantifies over every maximizer y∗y^*y∗ of P(0,⋅)P(0,\cdot)P(0,⋅) and every optimal yˉ\bar yyˉ​; it is not an existence statement, and y∗y^*y∗ is not chosen by the prover. Without the full-support hypothesis the universal statement fails already for one product (a flat-topped profit). Lemmas 4 and 6 of the paper are not included: under the definitions used here both are false as printed (small two- and three-product computations with exponential demands show it), and Theorem 3 comes after the goal and fails as printed for xi≥yi∗x_i \ge y^*_ixi​≥yi∗​.

A proof needs integrals of piecewise-linear functions of the demand vector, differentiation under the integral sign, and facts about product measures. Contributions of any of the milestones, and of general lemmas on the greedy allocation (monotonicity of SjkS^k_jSjk​ in yyy and ddd), are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Bassok, R. Anupindi, R. Akella, Single-Period Multiproduct Inventory Models with Substitution, Operations Research 47(4):632–642, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.47.4.632
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Optimal Policy for a Multi-Product, Dynamic, Nonstationary Inventory Problem, Management Science 12(3):206–222, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.3.206
  • E. Ignall, A. F. Veinott, Jr., Optimality of Myopic Inventory Policies for Several Substitute Products, Management Science 15(5):284–304, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.284
  • A. J. Hoffman, On Simple Linear Programming Problems, in V. Klee (ed.), Convexity, Proceedings of Symposia in Pure Mathematics, Vol. 7, AMS, 1963.
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Maximizing Non-Monotone Submodular Functions II: A Nonadaptive Algorithm Achieves 1/3 of the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Maximizing a submodular set function without constraints contains Max Cut, Max Directed Cut, maximum facility location and several graph and hypergraph cut problems as special cases, and it appears in operations research wherever a value exhibits diminishing returns but is not monotone (profit that combines coverage with a cost, for example). These problems are NP-hard, so the question is which fraction of the optimum an efficient algorithm can guarantee when the function is accessible only through a value oracle that returns f(S)f(S)f(S) for a queried set SSS.

Feige, Mirrokni and Vondrák (SIAM J. Comput. 40(4), 2011) gave the first constant-factor approximation algorithms for maximizing a general nonnegative submodular function. The simplest of them returns a uniformly random set and achieves 1/41/41/4 of the optimum; this mission is about the next one, a nonadaptive algorithm: it decides all of its oracle queries before seeing any answer, then computes a set from the answers. Such an algorithm can be run in one round of parallel queries. The paper shows that this restricted access already beats 1/41/41/4 and reaches 1/31/31/3.

Timeline. For Max Directed Cut, a random cut achieves 1/41/41/4. Feige, Mirrokni and Vondrák (FOCS 2007; journal version 2011) proved 1/41/41/4 for a random set and 1/31/31/3 nonadaptively for general nonnegative submodular functions, 1/31/31/3 and 2/52/52/5 by adaptive local search, and that 1/21/21/2 requires exponentially many queries. Buchbinder, Feldman, Naor and Schwartz (FOCS 2012, SIAM J. Comput. 2015) later reached the optimal 1/21/21/2 with a randomized double-greedy algorithm.

Setting

Let XXX be a finite ground set with n=∣X∣≥1n = |X| \ge 1n=∣X∣≥1 elements. A function f:2X→Rf : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}f:2X→R is submodular (Definition 1.1) if

f(S∪T)+f(S∩T)≤f(S)+f(T)for all S,T⊆X.f(S \cup T) + f(S \cap T) \le f(S) + f(T) \qquad \text{for all } S, T \subseteq X .f(S∪T)+f(S∩T)≤f(S)+f(T)for all S,T⊆X.

Throughout, fff is nonnegative, the paper's standing assumption, and OPT=max⁡S⊆Xf(S)OPT = \max_{S \subseteq X} f(S)OPT=maxS⊆X​f(S).

For p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1], X(p)X(p)X(p) denotes the random subset of XXX containing each element independently with probability ppp; R=X(1/2)R = X(1/2)R=X(1/2) is a uniformly random subset. For a set A⊆XA \subseteq XA⊆X, A(p)A(p)A(p) is the analogous random subset of AAA. The averaged marginal value of an element (Definition 2.4) is

ω(x)=E[f(R∪{x})−f(R∖{x})],R=X(1/2).\omega(x) = \mathbf{E}\big[f(R \cup \{x\}) - f(R \setminus \{x\})\big], \qquad R = X(1/2).ω(x)=E[f(R∪{x})−f(R∖{x})],R=X(1/2).

Algorithm NA (p. 1139):

  1. by random sampling, compute estimates ω~(x)\tilde\omega(x)ω~(x) with ∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2|\tilde\omega(x) - \omega(x)| < OPT/n^2∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2 for all xxx, with high probability;
  2. independently, sample R=X(1/2)R = X(1/2)R=X(1/2);
  3. with probability 8/98/98/9 return RRR;
  4. with probability 1/91/91/9 return A={x∈X:ω~(x)>0}A = \{x \in X : \tilde\omega(x) > 0\}A={x∈X:ω~(x)>0}.

Given the estimates, the expected value NA returns is 89 E[f(X(1/2))]+19f(A)\tfrac89\,\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] + \tfrac19 f(A)98​E[f(X(1/2))]+91​f(A).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.6 in the explicit form of its proof

For every nonnegative submodular fff and every estimate ω~\tilde\omegaω~ with ∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2|\tilde\omega(x) - \omega(x)| < OPT/n^2∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2 for all xxx,

89 E[f(X(1/2))]+19 f({x:ω~(x)>0}) ≥ (13−49n) OPT.\frac89\,\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] + \frac19\, f\big(\{x : \tilde\omega(x) > 0\}\big) \ \ge\ \Big(\frac13 - \frac{4}{9n}\Big)\, OPT .98​E[f(X(1/2))]+91​f({x:ω~(x)>0}) ≥ (31​−9n4​)OPT.

The printed theorem says "at least (1/3−o(1)) OPT(1/3 - o(1))\,OPT(1/3−o(1))OPT"; the term 4/(9n)4/(9n)4/(9n) is what the proof establishes (p. 1140, last display).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.2: E[g(A(p))]≥(1−p) g(∅)+p g(A)\mathbf{E}[g(A(p))] \ge (1-p)\,g(\emptyset) + p\,g(A)E[g(A(p))]≥(1−p)g(∅)+pg(A) for submodular ggg.
  2. Lemma 2.3: E[f(A(p)∪B(q))]≥(1−p)(1−q)f(∅)+p(1−q)f(A)+(1−p)qf(B)+pqf(A∪B)\mathbf{E}[f(A(p) \cup B(q))] \ge (1-p)(1-q) f(\emptyset) + p(1-q) f(A) + (1-p)q f(B) + pq f(A \cup B)E[f(A(p)∪B(q))]≥(1−p)(1−q)f(∅)+p(1−q)f(A)+(1−p)qf(B)+pqf(A∪B) for independently sampled, possibly overlapping A,BA, BA,B.
  3. For B=X∖AB = X \setminus AB=X∖A and any CCC: f(A)+f(B∩C)+f(B∪C)≥f(C)f(A) + f(B \cap C) + f(B \cup C) \ge f(C)f(A)+f(B∩C)+f(B∪C)≥f(C).
  4. If ω≤OPT/n2\omega \le OPT/n^2ω≤OPT/n2 on BBB: E[f(R∪(B∩C))]≤E[f(R)]+OPT/(2n)\mathbf{E}[f(R \cup (B \cap C))] \le \mathbf{E}[f(R)] + OPT/(2n)E[f(R∪(B∩C))]≤E[f(R)]+OPT/(2n).
  5. E[f(R∪(B∩C))]≥14f(B∩C)+14f(C)\mathbf{E}[f(R \cup (B \cap C))] \ge \tfrac14 f(B \cap C) + \tfrac14 f(C)E[f(R∪(B∩C))]≥41​f(B∩C)+41​f(C).
  6. If ω≥−OPT/n2\omega \ge -OPT/n^2ω≥−OPT/n2 on AAA and B=X∖AB = X \setminus AB=X∖A: E[f(R)]≥E[f(R∩(B∪C))]−OPT/(2n)\mathbf{E}[f(R)] \ge \mathbf{E}[f(R \cap (B \cup C))] - OPT/(2n)E[f(R)]≥E[f(R∩(B∪C))]−OPT/(2n).
  7. E[f(R∩(B∪C))]≥14f(C)+14f(B∪C)\mathbf{E}[f(R \cap (B \cup C))] \ge \tfrac14 f(C) + \tfrac14 f(B \cup C)E[f(R∩(B∪C))]≥41​f(C)+41​f(B∪C).

Milestones 3–7 are the displayed steps of the proof of Theorem 2.6, stated for arbitrary sets where the page's argument does not use the optimality of CCC.

Significance

The theorem shows that nonadaptive access, a fixed batch of polynomially many value queries followed by a computation, suffices for a 1/31/31/3-approximation of unconstrained nonnegative submodular maximization, strictly better than the 1/41/41/4 of any algorithm that must return one of its queried sets (the paper shows 1/41/41/4 is optimal in that class, §4.2). The quantity ω\omegaω generalizes the in-degree/out-degree test for Max Directed Cut to arbitrary submodular functions, and Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3 are general sampling inequalities for submodular functions that the paper reuses for its adaptive smooth local search.

Formalizing it produces machine-checked versions of Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3 as statements about exact finite averages, a reusable expectation operator on product-distributed random subsets, and a checked version of the 1/31/31/3 argument with its explicit error term. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has been formalized in a proof assistant.

Difficulty

The two regimes the proof separates, "AAA is already good" and "one of f(B∩C)f(B \cap C)f(B∩C), f(B∪C)f(B \cup C)f(B∪C) is large", must be tied to the value of a uniformly random set, whereas the elements of AAA and BBB are chosen from estimated averages, not from the optimal set CCC. The natural attempt, comparing f(R)f(R)f(R) with f(C)f(C)f(C) element by element, fails because fff is not monotone: adding elements of CCC to RRR can decrease the value. The accuracy OPT/n2OPT/n^2OPT/n2 of the estimates must also be propagated through a sum over up to nnn elements, which is where the error term 4/(9n)4/(9n)4/(9n) comes from. The sampling lemmas require handling expectations over pairs of independent random subsets of possibly overlapping sets.

Formalization scope

  • The ground set is a Fintype X with DecidableEq, assumed Nonempty, so n=∣X∣≥1n = |X| \ge 1n=∣X∣≥1 and the divisions by nnn and n2n^2n2 are genuine; sets are Finset X; fff is real valued with nonnegativity ∀S, 0≤f(S)\forall S,\ 0 \le f(S)∀S, 0≤f(S) as an explicit hypothesis. Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3 are stated for real fff with no sign condition, as printed.
  • OPTOPTOPT is Finset.univ.sup' _ f, the true maximum over all subsets.
  • Every expectation over an independently sampled random set is the exact finite sum F(x)=∑Sf(S)∏i∈Sxi∏i∉S(1−xi)F(x) = \sum_{S} f(S)\prod_{i \in S} x_i \prod_{i \notin S}(1 - x_i)F(x)=∑S​f(S)∏i∈S​xi​∏i∈/S​(1−xi​); X(1/2)X(1/2)X(1/2) is x≡1/2x \equiv 1/2x≡1/2. Expectations over two independent samples (Lemma 2.3) are the corresponding iterated sums. Sampling probabilities carry the hypotheses 0≤p,q≤10 \le p, q \le 10≤p,q≤1.
  • The goal quantifies over every estimate ω~\tilde\omegaω~ satisfying the printed accuracy ∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2|\tilde\omega(x) - \omega(x)| < OPT/n^2∣ω~(x)−ω(x)∣<OPT/n2 (strict), with A={x:ω~(x)>0}A = \{x : \tilde\omega(x) > 0\}A={x:ω~(x)>0} (strict). The "with high probability" of NA's first step is this hypothesis; the sampling estimate that makes it likely (Lemma 2.5, a Chernoff-bound argument) is not part of the goal. When OPT=0OPT = 0OPT=0 the hypothesis is unsatisfiable, but then f≡0f \equiv 0f≡0 and nothing is lost.
  • The left-hand side is exactly the mixture 89 E[f(X(1/2))]+19f(A)\tfrac89\,\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] + \tfrac19 f(A)98​E[f(X(1/2))]+91​f(A). A statement with the maximum of the two terms, with exact values ω~=ω\tilde\omega = \omegaω~=ω, or with the o(1)o(1)o(1) replaced by an existential constant or a limit, is a different (and weaker or stronger) theorem and does not close this mission.
  • Printed slip corrected: in the second display on p. 1140, the "===" before −∣A∖C∣ OPT/(2n2)-|A \setminus C|\,OPT/(2n^2)−∣A∖C∣OPT/(2n2) should be "≥\ge≥"; milestone 6 states the inequality.

Welcome contributions: proofs of Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3 (reusable for mission IV of this series), the identity E[f(R∪{x})−f(R)]=12ω(x)\mathbf{E}[f(R \cup \{x\}) - f(R)] = \tfrac12\omega(x)E[f(R∪{x})−f(R)]=21​ω(x), and general lemmas about the operator FFF (splitting a uniform random set along a partition).

Selected references

  • U. Feige, V. S. Mirrokni, J. Vondrák, Maximizing Non-Monotone Submodular Functions, SIAM J. Comput. 40(4):1133–1153, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1137/090779346
  • N. Buchbinder, M. Feldman, J. Naor, R. Schwartz, A Tight Linear Time (1/2)-Approximation for Unconstrained Submodular Maximization, SIAM J. Comput. 44(5):1384–1402, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1137/130929205
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems IV: The (Q, r) Cost Is Flatter in the Order Quantity than the EOQ CostResearch Paper

Motivation

The continuous-review (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) policy is the standard replenishment rule of inventory theory: whenever the inventory position (stock on hand plus on order minus backorders) drops to the reorder point rrr, order a fixed order quantity QQQ. It is used in practice and taught in every operations management course, usually after the deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ) model, which is the same system with a constant demand stream.

Practitioners and textbooks rely on a robustness property of the EOQ: its cost is very insensitive to the choice of order quantity. If the order quantity is off by a factor α\alphaα, the cost rises only by the factor 12(α+1/α)\tfrac12(\alpha + 1/\alpha)21​(α+1/α); ordering 50% too much costs about 8% extra. The insensitivity of the stochastic (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) system to its control parameters had been observed numerically (Wagner, O'Hagan and Lundh 1965; Naddor 1975; Archibald and Silver 1978), but, as Zheng notes, no analytical result on it was known.

Timeline:

  • 1963: Hadley and Whitin derive the (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) cost for Poisson demand.
  • 1986: Zipkin proves that the average backorders of a (Q,r)(Q,r)(Q,r) policy are jointly convex in (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) under continuous demand (Zipkin 1986).
  • 1992: Zheng derives simple optimality conditions for the continuous (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) model and compares it with the EOQ model under the same cost structure. One of the results is that the stochastic cost curve is flatter in the order quantity than the EOQ curve (Zheng 1992). This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Demands arrive at rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; orders arrive after a fixed leadtime L>0L>0L>0; all stockouts are backordered. Each order costs K>0K>0K>0; holding costs accrue at rate h>0h>0h>0 per unit in stock and penalty costs at rate p>0p>0p>0 per unit backordered. The leadtime demand D≥0D\ge 0D≥0 has distribution μ\muμ with finite mean E(D)=λLE(D) = \lambda LE(D)=λL.

The inventory cost rate at inventory position yyy is

G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],G(y) = E\big[h(y-D)^+ + p(D-y)^+\big],G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],

assumed to attain its minimum at a unique point y0y^0y0. The long-run average cost of the policy (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) is

c(Q,r)=λK+∫rr+QG(y) dyQ,Q>0.c(Q, r) = \frac{\lambda K + \int_r^{r+Q} G(y)\,dy}{Q}, \qquad Q>0.c(Q,r)=QλK+∫rr+Q​G(y)dy​,Q>0.

For fixed Q>0Q>0Q>0 let r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) be a reorder point minimizing c(Q,⋅)c(Q,\cdot)c(Q,⋅), and let

C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)),H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0).C(Q) = c(Q, r(Q)), \qquad H(Q) = G(r(Q))\ (Q>0), \quad H(0) = G(y^0).C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)),H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0).

CCC is the cost of the order quantity QQQ when the reorder point is always chosen optimally for it. An optimal order quantity Q∗Q^*Q∗ minimizes CCC over Q>0Q>0Q>0, and C∗=C(Q∗)C^* = C(Q^*)C∗=C(Q∗).

The EOQ model is the same system with the constant leadtime demand λL\lambda LλL. Its cost rate is Gd(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+G_d(y) = h(y-\lambda L)^+ + p(\lambda L-y)^+Gd​(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+, and rdr_drd​, HdH_dHd​, CdC_dCd​ are the objects above at GdG_dGd​, with optimum Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ and Cd∗C^*_dCd∗​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

C(αQ∗)C∗≤12(α+1α)∀α>0.\frac{C(\alpha Q^*)}{C^*} \le \frac12\left(\alpha + \frac1\alpha\right) \qquad \forall \alpha>0.C∗C(αQ∗)​≤21​(α+α1​)∀α>0.

The goal holds for every demand distribution satisfying the standing assumptions and every optimal Q∗Q^*Q∗. Both regimes, α<1\alpha<1α<1 and α>1\alpha>1α>1, are included.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Eq. (7): ∫r(Q)r(Q)+QG=∫0QH\int_{r(Q)}^{r(Q)+Q} G = \int_0^Q H∫r(Q)r(Q)+Q​G=∫0Q​H, hence C(Q)=(λK+∫0QH(y)dy)/QC(Q) = \big(\lambda K + \int_0^Q H(y)dy\big)/QC(Q)=(λK+∫0Q​H(y)dy)/Q for Q>0Q>0Q>0.
  2. Lemma 4: HHH is increasing and convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p).
  3. Eq. (8): an optimal Q∗Q^*Q∗ exists, and Q>0Q>0Q>0 is optimal iff H(Q)=C(Q)H(Q) = C(Q)H(Q)=C(Q).
  4. Eq. (18): Hd(Q)=hph+pQH_d(Q) = \frac{hp}{h+p}QHd​(Q)=h+php​Q, with rd(Q)=λL−hh+pQr_d(Q) = \lambda L - \frac{h}{h+p}Qrd​(Q)=λL−h+ph​Q.
  5. Lemma 7: H0(Q)≤Hd(Q)≤H(Q)H_0(Q) \le H_d(Q) \le H(Q)H0​(Q)≤Hd​(Q)≤H(Q) and A(Q)≤Ad(Q)A(Q)\le A_d(Q)A(Q)≤Ad​(Q), where H0=H−G(y0)H_0 = H - G(y^0)H0​=H−G(y0) and A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0QHA(Q) = QH(Q) - \int_0^Q HA(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0Q​H.
  6. Eqs. (26)–(27): H(αQ)≤αH(Q)H(\alpha Q)\le \alpha H(Q)H(αQ)≤αH(Q) for α>1\alpha>1α>1 and H(αQ)≥αH(Q)H(\alpha Q)\ge\alpha H(Q)H(αQ)≥αH(Q) for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1.
  7. Lemma 9: ∫QαQH(y) dy≤α2−12 QH(Q)\int_Q^{\alpha Q} H(y)\,dy \le \frac{\alpha^2-1}{2}\,Q H(Q)∫QαQ​H(y)dy≤2α2−1​QH(Q) for all α>0\alpha>0α>0, Q>0Q>0Q>0.

Significance

In the EOQ model the relative cost of a scaled order quantity is exactly Cd(αQd∗)/Cd∗=12(α+1/α)C_d(\alpha Q^*_d)/C^*_d = \tfrac12(\alpha + 1/\alpha)Cd​(αQd∗​)/Cd∗​=21​(α+1/α) (Eq. (25) of the paper). Theorem 4 shows that the stochastic system is at least as forgiving. The bound holds for every leadtime-demand distribution with a unique newsvendor minimizer, and it does not depend on the parameters KKK, hhh, ppp, λ\lambdaλ or LLL. Because the reorder point is re-optimized for each quantity, the bound applies to the practical question of how much a misestimated lot size costs when the safety stock is set correctly.

Together with the other results of the paper (the 1/81/81/8 bound for the EOQ heuristic and the bounds between Q∗Q^*Q∗ and Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​, which are separate missions of this series), it gives a closed-form account of why the EOQ is a good heuristic for stochastic systems.

The result has a complete published proof. It has not been machine-checked. The work that remains is a formal proof for general distributions: the paper differentiates GGG and r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) twice, and a formal proof has to replace those derivatives with arguments that need no density.

Difficulty

C(Q)C(Q)C(Q) is defined through an inner minimization over the reorder point, so its shape in QQQ is controlled by the implicitly defined function H(Q)=G(r(Q))H(Q) = G(r(Q))H(Q)=G(r(Q)) rather than by GGG directly. The obvious approach would bound C(αQ∗)C(\alpha Q^*)C(αQ∗) with the reorder point fixed at r(Q∗)r(Q^*)r(Q∗). That approach is the wrong comparison: it bounds a larger quantity, and the resulting bound depends on the distribution.

The paper's proof uses three properties of HHH: that it is convex, that its slope never exceeds the EOQ slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p), and that it dominates HdH_dHd​. The paper obtains these from the derivatives r′(Q)r'(Q)r′(Q) and H′(Q)H'(Q)H′(Q) under a smooth demand distribution. Without a density, r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) is only an argmin and HHH need not be differentiable, so none of these three properties can be read off a derivative formula; the asymptotic slope in particular depends on the finite mean E(D)=λLE(D) = \lambda LE(D)=λL and on the behaviour of GGG at ±∞\pm\infty±∞.

Formalization scope

The mission is set in Lean 4 with Mathlib. All objects are real valued.

  • Model. The structure QRModel bundles λ,L,K,h,p>0\lambda, L, K, h, p>0λ,L,K,h,p>0, a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb{R}R with integrable identity, ∫x dμ=λL\int x\,d\mu = \lambda L∫xdμ=λL, D≥0D\ge 0D≥0 almost surely, and the unique-minimizer hypothesis on GGG. K>0K>0K>0 is implicit in the paper and made explicit here. No density is assumed; deterministic and discrete demands are allowed, and the paper's own numerical study uses Poisson demand.
  • Generic machinery. ccc, r(Q)r(Q)r(Q), y0y^0y0, HHH, H0H_0H0​, CCC and AAA are defined for an arbitrary cost rate and instantiated at GGG and at GdG_dGd​. r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) and y0y^0y0 are chosen minimizers; they are never defined by the equation G(r)=G(r+Q)G(r) = G(r+Q)G(r)=G(r+Q), which is a lemma of the paper. H(0)=G(y0)H(0) = G(y^0)H(0)=G(y0). Values at Q<0Q<0Q<0 (and of ccc, CCC at Q≤0Q\le 0Q≤0) are junk, and every statement restricts to Q>0Q>0Q>0 or Q≥0Q\ge 0Q≥0.
  • Readings of informal words. "Increasing" in Lemma 4 is strict on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), since the proof shows H′>0H'>0H′>0. "Asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)" is stated as H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q\to hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p) together with the chord bound H(Q2)−H(Q1)≤hph+p(Q2−Q1)H(Q_2)-H(Q_1)\le \frac{hp}{h+p}(Q_2-Q_1)H(Q2​)−H(Q1​)≤h+php​(Q2​−Q1​) for 0≤Q1≤Q20\le Q_1\le Q_20≤Q1​≤Q2​. The chord bound is the derivative-free form of H′≤hp/(h+p)H'\le hp/(h+p)H′≤hp/(h+p) that the proofs of Lemmas 7–9 use. "The optimal order quantity" is IsOptQty Q, meaning Q>0Q>0Q>0 and C(Q)≤C(Q′)C(Q)\le C(Q')C(Q)≤C(Q′) for all Q′>0Q'>0Q′>0. Its existence is asserted in the Eq. (8) milestone, so the goal is not vacuous. "∀α>0\forall\alpha>0∀α>0" is a real α>0\alpha>0α>0 with real division 1/α1/\alpha1/α. In Lemma 9 the integral ∫QαQ\int_Q^{\alpha Q}∫QαQ​ is oriented, as on the page.
  • Ruling out trivializations. C(αQ∗)C(\alpha Q^*)C(αQ∗) re-optimizes the reorder point for αQ∗\alpha Q^*αQ∗; holding it at r(Q∗)r(Q^*)r(Q∗) would be a different theorem. C∗>0C^*>0C∗>0 is a consequence of the model, not a hypothesis.

A complete development needs the following:

  • integrability and continuity of GGG;
  • existence of the optimal reorder point;
  • convexity of HHH;
  • the asymptotics G−Gd→0G - G_d\to 0G−Gd​→0 at ±∞\pm\infty±∞;
  • Jensen's inequality Gd≤GG_d\le GGd​≤G (Eq. (22));
  • existence of Q∗Q^*Q∗.

These facts about newsvendor cost functions are reusable in the other missions of this series. Contributions of any of them as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y.-S. Zheng, On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 38(1):87–103, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.1.87
  • P. H. Zipkin, Inventory Service-Level Measures: Convexity and Approximation, Management Science 32(8):975–981, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.8.975
  • G. Hadley and T. M. Whitin, Analysis of Inventory Systems, Prentice-Hall, 1963.
  • H. M. Wagner, M. O'Hagan and B. Lundh, An Empirical Study of Exactly and Approximately Optimal Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(7):690–723, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.7.690
  • A. Federgruen and Y.-S. Zheng, An Efficient Algorithm for Computing an Optimal (r, Q) Policy in Continuous Review Stochastic Inventory Systems, Operations Research 40(4):808–813, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.4.808
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems II: The Optimal Order Quantity of the Stochastic (Q, r) Model Exceeds the EOQ by a Bounded GapResearch Paper

Motivation

The continuous-review (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) policy is the standard control rule for a single stocked item with random demand: whenever the inventory position falls to the reorder point rrr, an order of fixed size QQQ is placed. It is implemented in a large share of commercial inventory systems. Choosing the two parameters jointly has traditionally required numerical search (Hadley and Whitin, 1963; Federgruen and Zheng, 1992). In practice the order quantity is therefore often taken from the deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ) formula with backorders, and the reorder point is then set for the random demand.

Zheng (1992) turned this practice into a question with an exact answer: how does the optimal order quantity Q∗Q^*Q∗ of the stochastic model compare with the EOQ quantity Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ computed from the same cost data and the same mean demand? Its Theorem 2 answers it with a two-sided bound. This mission formalizes that theorem. Companion missions of the same series formalize the paper's cost bounds (Theorem 3), the flatness of the cost curve (Theorem 4) and the 1/81/81/8 bound on the cost of using the EOQ quantity (Theorem 5).

Setting

Demand arrives at rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and replenishment orders arrive after a fixed leadtime L>0L > 0L>0. Shortages are backordered. Holding costs accrue at rate h>0h > 0h>0 per unit held, backorder penalties at rate p>0p > 0p>0 per unit short, and every order costs K>0K > 0K>0. The leadtime demand DDD is a nonnegative random variable with law μ\muμ and mean E(D)=λL\mathbb{E}(D) = \lambda LE(D)=λL. The expected inventory cost rate at inventory position yyy is the newsvendor cost

G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],G(y) = \mathbb{E}\big[h(y - D)^+ + p(D - y)^+\big],G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],

assumed, as in the paper, to attain its minimum at a unique point y0y^0y0. The long-run average cost of the policy (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) is

c(Q,r)=λK+∫rr+QG(y) dyQ.c(Q, r) = \frac{\lambda K + \int_r^{r+Q} G(y)\,dy}{Q}.c(Q,r)=QλK+∫rr+Q​G(y)dy​.

For each Q>0Q > 0Q>0, let r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) be an optimal reorder point, i.e. a minimizer of c(Q,⋅)c(Q, \cdot)c(Q,⋅). The analysis runs through the curves

H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0),H0(Q)=H(Q)−G(y0),A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0QH(y) dy,H(Q) = G(r(Q))\ (Q > 0),\quad H(0) = G(y^0),\qquad H_0(Q) = H(Q) - G(y^0),\qquad A(Q) = QH(Q) - \int_0^Q H(y)\,dy,H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0),H0​(Q)=H(Q)−G(y0),A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0Q​H(y)dy,

and through the cost C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q))C(Q) = c(Q, r(Q))C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)) of order quantity QQQ with the reorder point set optimally. The optimal order quantity Q∗Q^*Q∗ is the minimizer of CCC over Q>0Q > 0Q>0.

The EOQ model is the case of a constant leadtime demand λL\lambda LλL. Its cost rate is Gd(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+G_d(y) = h(y - \lambda L)^+ + p(\lambda L - y)^+Gd​(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+, and the same construction gives rdr_drd​, HdH_dHd​, AdA_dAd​ and the optimal quantity

Qd∗=2λK(h+p)hp.Q^*_d = \sqrt{\frac{2\lambda K(h+p)}{hp}}.Qd∗​=hp2λK(h+p)​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 96)

For K>0K > 0K>0, let Qˉ\bar QQˉ​, Qˉ1\bar Q_1Qˉ​1​, Qˉ2\bar Q_2Qˉ​2​ be the positive solutions of

QH0(Q)=2λK,H0(Q)=Hd(Qd∗),∫0QH0(y) dy=λK.Q H_0(Q) = 2\lambda K,\qquad H_0(Q) = H_d(Q^*_d),\qquad \int_0^Q H_0(y)\,dy = \lambda K.QH0​(Q)=2λK,H0​(Q)=Hd​(Qd∗​),∫0Q​H0​(y)dy=λK.

Each has exactly one positive solution, and

Qd∗≤Q∗≤Qˉ,Qˉ≤Qˉ1,Qˉ≤Qˉ2.Q^*_d \le Q^* \le \bar Q,\qquad \bar Q \le \bar Q_1,\qquad \bar Q \le \bar Q_2.Qd∗​≤Q∗≤Qˉ​,Qˉ​≤Qˉ​1​,Qˉ​≤Qˉ​2​.

Moreover, with λ,L,h,p\lambda, L, h, pλ,L,h,p and the demand law fixed, K↦Qˉ1(K)−Qd∗(K)K \mapsto \bar Q_1(K) - Q^*_d(K)K↦Qˉ​1​(K)−Qd∗​(K) is nondecreasing on (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞) and converges to a finite constant as K→∞K \to \inftyK→∞.

Milestones

The milestones are the paper's own numbered results that feed Theorem 2, listed in the order the argument uses them:

  1. Lemma 2 (p. 90): for Q>0Q > 0Q>0, rrr is optimal iff G(r)=G(r+Q)G(r) = G(r + Q)G(r)=G(r+Q).
  2. Eq. (7) (p. 91): C(Q)=(λK+∫0QH(y) dy)/QC(Q) = (\lambda K + \int_0^Q H(y)\,dy)/QC(Q)=(λK+∫0Q​H(y)dy)/Q.
  3. Lemma 4 (p. 91): HHH is increasing and convex with asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p).
  4. Lemma 6 (p. 92): AAA is increasing and convex, and Q=Q∗Q = Q^*Q=Q∗ iff A(Q)=λKA(Q) = \lambda KA(Q)=λK.
  5. Eqs. (18), (20) (p. 94): Hd(Q)=hph+pQH_d(Q) = \frac{hp}{h+p}QHd​(Q)=h+php​Q, and Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ is optimal for the EOQ model.
  6. Lemma 7 (p. 95): H0≤Hd≤HH_0 \le H_d \le HH0​≤Hd​≤H and A≤AdA \le A_dA≤Ad​.
  7. Lemma 8 (p. 95): ∫0QH≥12QH(Q)≥A(Q)≥12QH0(Q)≥∫0QH0\int_0^Q H \ge \tfrac12 QH(Q) \ge A(Q) \ge \tfrac12 QH_0(Q) \ge \int_0^Q H_0∫0Q​H≥21​QH(Q)≥A(Q)≥21​QH0​(Q)≥∫0Q​H0​, with equalities for deterministic demand.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 says that the EOQ formula always underestimates the optimal order quantity when leadtime demand is random. The underestimate is bounded by Qˉ1−Qd∗\bar Q_1 - Q^*_dQˉ​1​−Qd∗​, a quantity that stays bounded however large the ordering cost is. So the relative error of the EOQ quantity vanishes as KKK grows. The first inequality, Qd∗≤Q∗Q^*_d \le Q^*Qd∗​≤Q∗, is also an ingredient of the paper's Theorem 3 (cost bounds) and Theorem 5 (the EOQ quantity raises costs by at most 1/81/81/8). The explicit bounds Qˉ\bar QQˉ​, Qˉ1\bar Q_1Qˉ​1​, Qˉ2\bar Q_2Qˉ​2​ bracket Q∗Q^*Q∗ and give a search interval for it.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved on paper since 1992. No machine-checked version of it, or of the continuous-review (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) cost of Eq. (1), exists on this platform. The inventory items already here treat the discrete cost with integer order quantities, a normally distributed demand, or the EOQ without backorders. This mission provides a machine-checked version of the paper's optimality conditions for a general demand distribution. The paper's argument differentiates GGG twice, i.e. it tacitly assumes a density. The formal statements do not, so a formal proof must redo those steps with one-sided (convexity) arguments. The printed argument for the limit in part (b) shows only that a derivative tends to zero. A complete proof of convergence is part of the work.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Qd∗≤Q∗Q^*_d \le Q^*Qd∗​≤Q∗ compares the two cost curves CCC and CdC_dCd​ directly. It fails because C≥CdC \ge C_dC≥Cd​ pointwise, and a pointwise inequality between two convex functions says nothing about the order of their minimizers. The stochastic curve HHH is defined only implicitly, as GGG evaluated at a minimizer of a parametric integral, so its growth relative to the linear HdH_dHd​ has to be established before any comparison of order quantities. For part (b), a vanishing derivative does not imply convergence (log⁡K\log KlogK also has a vanishing derivative), so the printed proof of the limit does not go through as written.

Without a density, r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) need not be differentiable. Every derivative in the paper's proofs (of rrr, HHH and AAA) must be replaced by monotonicity or chord arguments.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the namespace ZhengQR.OrderQty. Its conventions:

  • Parameters. λ,L,K,h,p\lambda, L, K, h, pλ,L,K,h,p are reals, all assumed strictly positive. K>0K > 0K>0 is implicit in the paper; at K=0K = 0K=0 the optimal quantity degenerates.
  • Demand. The law μ\muμ of DDD is a probability measure on R\mathbb{R}R that is integrable, has mean λL\lambda LλL and is carried by [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞). No density is assumed, so discrete laws such as the Poisson of the paper's §4 are allowed.
  • Standing assumption. GGG has a unique global minimizer (p. 90). It is a hypothesis of every statement about the stochastic model.
  • Generic machinery. ccc, r(Q)r(Q)r(Q), y0y^0y0, HHH, CCC, AAA, H0H_0H0​ and optimality of QQQ are defined for an arbitrary cost rate GGG and applied to both the newsvendor cost and GdG_dGd​. So Eqs. (18) and (20) are theorems, not definitions. r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) and y0y^0y0 are chosen minimizers, never solutions of Lemma 2's equation. r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) minimizes ∫rr+QG\int_r^{r+Q}G∫rr+Q​G, which for Q>0Q > 0Q>0 has the same minimizers as c(Q,⋅)c(Q, \cdot)c(Q,⋅), so HHH, H0H_0H0​ and AAA do not depend on KKK.
  • Domains. HHH, H0H_0H0​ and AAA are used on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), ccc and CCC for Q>0Q > 0Q>0 only, and Q∗Q^*Q∗ is a Q>0Q > 0Q>0 minimizing CCC over (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞).
  • Readings of informal words.
    • Lemma 4's "increasing" and Lemma 6's "increasing/decreasing" mean strictly.
    • Lemma 4's "asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)" means H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q \to hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p) together with the chord bound H(Q′)−H(Q)≤hph+p(Q′−Q)H(Q') - H(Q) \le \frac{hp}{h+p}(Q' - Q)H(Q′)−H(Q)≤h+php​(Q′−Q) for 0≤Q<Q′0 \le Q < Q'0≤Q<Q′.
    • "Qˉ=def{Q:… }\bar Q \overset{\text{def}}{=} \{Q : \dots\}Qˉ​=def{Q:…}" means the unique positive solution. The goal quantifies over every positive solution and separately asserts that exactly one exists.
    • Theorem 2's "increasing function of KKK" means nondecreasing, which is what the paper's proof establishes (a nonnegative derivative).
    • "Converges to a constant" means a finite real limit.
    • Lemma 8's "the leadtime demand is deterministic" means the EOQ model with cost rate GdG_dGd​.
  • Ruling out trivial readings. The goal's hypotheses are satisfiable (for example by a deterministic leadtime demand). Existence of Q∗Q^*Q∗ (Lemma 6) and of Qˉ\bar QQˉ​, Qˉ1\bar Q_1Qˉ​1​, Qˉ2\bar Q_2Qˉ​2​ (the goal itself) is asserted, so neither the bounds nor the limit hold vacuously.

Infrastructure needed includes the following. Much of it is reusable for any single-item inventory model:

  • differentiation under the expectation, or one-sided substitutes, for GGG;
  • convexity of HHH as the inverse of the width of the sublevel sets of GGG;
  • the envelope identity behind Eq. (7);
  • elementary convex-analysis facts about chords.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, general lemmas on the newsvendor cost, and a complete convergence argument for part (b).

Selected references

  • Y.-S. Zheng, On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 38(1):87–103, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.1.87
  • A. Federgruen, Y.-S. Zheng, An Efficient Algorithm for Computing an Optimal (r, Q) Policy in Continuous Review Stochastic Inventory Systems, Operations Research 40(4):808–813, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.4.808
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Asymptotic Optimality of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual-Sourcing Inventory Systems: Asymptotic Optimality of the Best TBS Policy for Long Lead TimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that can buy the same item from two suppliers, a cheap slow one and a fast expensive one, face the dual-sourcing inventory problem: how much to order from each source in every period when demand is random and unmet demand is backlogged. Global sourcing (offshore regular supply plus a near-shore express supply) is the standard example (Allon and Van Mieghem 2010). When the two lead times differ by more than one period, the optimal policy depends on the whole pipeline of outstanding orders. No simple optimal policy is known, and dynamic programming is intractable for long lead times.

The tailored base-surge (TBS) policy orders a constant amount from the slow source and uses the fast source to bring the expedited inventory position up to a fixed level. It is simple, and it is used in practice. Janakiraman, Seshadri and Sheopuri (JSS, Management Science 2015) showed that its best parameters solve a convex program that does not depend on the regular lead time, and they conjectured, with numerical support, that TBS is near-optimal when that lead time is long.

Timeline:

  • Karlin and Scarf (1958), Scarf (1960): structure of optimal single-source backlog policies with a lead time.
  • Sheopuri, Janakiraman and Seshadri (2010): reduction of dual-sourcing policies to the truncated regular pipeline and the expedited inventory position (Lemma 1 here).
  • Allon and Van Mieghem (2010): the TBS policy, with conjectures and numerical evidence.
  • JSS (2015): the TBS cost formula and a convex program for its parameters.
  • Xin and Goldberg (2018): proof of the conjecture with an explicit rate (Management Science 64(1), 2018). This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Let DDD be a nonnegative random variable with finite mean E[D]\mathbb E[D]E[D] that is not almost surely constant. Demands D1,D2,…D_1, D_2, \dotsD1​,D2​,… are i.i.d. copies of DDD. The regular source has lead time LLL, the express source has lead time L0≥0L_0 \ge 0L0​≥0, and L>L0+1L > L_0 + 1L>L0​+1. In period ttt the controller orders qtR≥0q^R_t \ge 0qtR​≥0 and qtE≥0q^E_t \ge 0qtE​≥0; then qt−LR+qt−L0Eq^R_{t-L} + q^E_{t-L_0}qt−LR​+qt−L0​E​ arrives and DtD_tDt​ is realized, so the on-hand inventory evolves as It+1=It+qt−LR+qt−L0E−DtI_{t+1} = I_t + q^R_{t-L} + q^E_{t-L_0} - D_tIt+1​=It​+qt−LR​+qt−L0​E​−Dt​ and may be negative. Initially nothing is on order and I1=−∑i=1G^D−i′I_1 = -\sum_{i=1}^{\hat G} D'_{-i}I1​=−∑i=1G^​D−i′​, where the D−i′D'_{-i}D−i′​ are further i.i.d. copies of DDD and P(G^=k)=2−k\mathbb P(\hat G = k) = 2^{-k}P(G^=k)=2−k, k≥1k \ge 1k≥1.

The per-period cost is c qt−L0E+G(It+1)c\,q^E_{t-L_0} + G(I_{t+1})cqt−L0​E​+G(It+1​) with G(y)=hy++by−G(y) = h y^+ + b y^-G(y)=hy++by−, where b,h>0b, h > 0b,h>0 and c>0c > 0c>0 is the express premium (the regular unit cost is normalized to 000). An admissible policy π∈Π\pi \in \Piπ∈Π chooses the two orders in period ttt as deterministic measurable functions of (qt−LR,…,qt−1R,qt−L0E,…,qt−1E,It)(q^R_{t-L}, \dots, q^R_{t-1}, q^E_{t-L_0}, \dots, q^E_{t-1}, I_t)(qt−LR​,…,qt−1R​,qt−L0​E​,…,qt−1E​,It​). Its long-run average cost is

C(π)=lim sup⁡T→∞1T∑t=L0+1TE[Ctπ],OPT(L)=inf⁡π∈ΠC(π).C(\pi) = \limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=L_0+1}^T \mathbb E[C^\pi_t], \qquad \mathrm{OPT}(L) = \inf_{\pi\in\Pi}C(\pi).C(π)=T→∞limsup​T1​t=L0​+1∑T​E[Ctπ​],OPT(L)=π∈Πinf​C(π).

With the expedited inventory position I^t=It+∑k=t−L0t−1qkE+∑k=t−Lt−L+L0qkR\hat I_t = I_t + \sum_{k=t-L_0}^{t-1}q^E_k + \sum_{k=t-L}^{t-L+L_0}q^R_kI^t​=It​+∑k=t−L0​t−1​qkE​+∑k=t−Lt−L+L0​​qkR​, the TBS policy πr,S\pi_{r,S}πr,S​ orders qtR=rq^R_t = rqtR​=r and qtE=max⁡(0,S−I^t)q^E_t = \max(0, S - \hat I_t)qtE​=max(0,S−I^t​). A best TBS pair (r∗,S∗)(r^*, S^*)(r∗,S∗) minimizes C(πr,S)C(\pi_{r,S})C(πr,S​) over 0≤r≤E[D]0 \le r \le \mathbb E[D]0≤r≤E[D] and S∈RS \in \mathbb RS∈R (first in rrr through F∞(r)=inf⁡SC(πr,S)F^\infty(r) = \inf_S C(\pi_{r,S})F∞(r)=infS​C(πr,S​), then in SSS).

The constants ϵ0\epsilon_0ϵ0​ and Y0Y_0Y0​ are explicit functionals of the law of DDD and of L0,b,h,cL_0, b, h, cL0​,b,h,c. They are built from g=inf⁡xE[G(x−∑i=1L0+1Di′)]g = \inf_x\mathbb E[G(x - \sum_{i=1}^{L_0+1}D'_i)]g=infx​E[G(x−∑i=1L0​+1​Di′​)], U=c E[D]+E[G(−∑i=1L0+1Di′)]U = c\,\mathbb E[D] + \mathbb E[G(-\sum_{i=1}^{L_0+1}D'_i)]U=cE[D]+E[G(−∑i=1L0​+1​Di′​)], p0=P(D<E[D])p_0 = \mathbb P(D < \mathbb E[D])p0​=P(D<E[D]), the mean absolute deviation η0\eta_0η0​, and the large-deviation quantities γϵ,ϑϵ\gamma_\epsilon, \vartheta_\epsilonγϵ​,ϑϵ​ of ϕϵ(θ)=eθ(E[D]−ϵ)E[e−θD]\phi_\epsilon(\theta) = e^{\theta(\mathbb E[D]-\epsilon)}\mathbb E[e^{-\theta D}]ϕϵ​(θ)=eθ(E[D]−ϵ)E[e−θD] (p. 441).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 441)

For all L0≥0L_0 \ge 0L0​≥0, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and L>ϵ0−2+Y0ϵ−2L > \epsilon_0^{-2} + Y_0\epsilon^{-2}L>ϵ0−2​+Y0​ϵ−2,

C(πr∗,S∗)OPT(L)<1+ϵ.\frac{C(\pi_{r^*,S^*})}{\mathrm{OPT}(L)} < 1 + \epsilon.OPT(L)C(πr∗,S∗​)​<1+ϵ.

The threshold does not depend on LLL, so the statement gives an explicit, inverse-polynomial rate. Its limit form C(πr∗,S∗)/OPT(L)→1C(\pi_{r^*,S^*})/\mathrm{OPT}(L) \to 1C(πr∗,S∗​)/OPT(L)→1 is Corollary 1 of the paper.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  • the bound g≤OPT(L)≤Ug \le \mathrm{OPT}(L) \le Ug≤OPT(L)≤U;
  • Lemma 1, the reduction to Π^\hat\PiΠ^ (quoted from Sheopuri et al.);
  • Eq. (3), the TBS cost formula C(πr,S)=c(E[D]−r)+E[G(I∞r+S−∑i=1L0+1Di′)]C(\pi_{r,S}) = c(\mathbb E[D]-r) + \mathbb E[G(I^r_\infty + S - \sum_{i=1}^{L_0+1}D'_i)]C(πr,S​)=c(E[D]−r)+E[G(I∞r​+S−∑i=1L0​+1​Di′​)] (quoted from JSS);
  • Theorem 2, the existence of a stationary-like vector (χ∗,L,q∗,L,I∗,L)(\chi^{*,L}, q^{*,L}, \mathcal I^{*,L})(χ∗,L,q∗,L,I∗,L) with rL=E[χ1∗,L]r_L = \mathbb E[\chi^{*,L}_1]rL​=E[χ1∗,L​];
  • Corollary 2 and Lemma 2, the lower bound OPT(L)≥c(E[D]−rL)+(1−α)VαL−L0(rL,−∞)\mathrm{OPT}(L) \ge c(\mathbb E[D]-r_L) + (1-\alpha)V^{L-L_0}_\alpha(r_L,-\infty)OPT(L)≥c(E[D]−rL​)+(1−α)VαL−L0​​(rL​,−∞) through a discounted single-source problem;
  • Lemma 3, the Bellman equation and structure of that problem (quoted from JSS and Scarf 1960);
  • Lemma 4 (8) and (9), and Corollary 3, the passage to the infinite horizon and to base-stock policies;
  • Lemma 5, the random-walk maxima MkrM^r_kMkr​ (proof omitted in the paper);
  • Lemmas 8–9 and Corollary 4: rL<E[D]−ϵ0r_L < \mathbb E[D] - \epsilon_0rL​<E[D]−ϵ0​ once L>ϵ0−2+L0+1L > \epsilon_0^{-2} + L_0 + 1L>ϵ0−2​+L0​+1.

Significance

The theorem shows that one of the simplest dual-sourcing heuristics is asymptotically optimal as the regular lead time grows. This is the regime where exact dynamic programming is hopeless. The best TBS parameters come from a convex program independent of LLL, so the result yields an algorithm whose running time does not grow with LLL and whose optimality gap is bounded explicitly for every finite LLL. It extends the lower-bounding technique of Xin and Goldberg's lost-sales work (Operations Research 2016) from a static to a dynamic relaxation.

Formalization adds the following. To the best of available knowledge, none of the objects involved (average-cost inventory control with backlog, TBS policies, Lindley-type maxima of random walks with their Spitzer identity) exists in Mathlib or on the platform. The paper's proof defers several ingredients to the literature or omits them: Lemma 1, Eq. (3), Lemma 3, and the details of Lemmas 5 and 7. A complete formal proof must supply them. The result is proved on paper but not formalized anywhere.

Difficulty

An optimal dual-sourcing policy need not be stationary, its induced Markov chain need not have a stationary distribution, and the inventory is unbounded below. The natural argument would compare the optimal policy's steady state with the TBS steady state, and it fails at its first step. Theorem 2 replaces the steady state by a vector with a few distributional properties, built from time averages. That construction, and the independence structure it must carry, is the central technical step. The conditional Jensen step then leads to a single-source problem with possibly negative demand, where textbook interchange-of-limits theorems do not apply directly. Finally, bounding rLr_LrL​ away from E[D]\mathbb E[D]E[D] requires a quantitative lower bound on the growth of random-walk maxima under only a first-moment assumption.

Formalization scope

Conventions of the Lean development (namespace XinGoldbergTBS.Asymptotic):

  • The law of DDD is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), finite mean, and no atom of mass 111. The paper's "strictly positive (possibly infinite) variance" is read as "not almost surely constant".
  • cR=0c_R = 0cR​=0, b>0b > 0b>0, h>0h > 0h>0, c>0c > 0c>0, and L,L0L, L_0L,L0​ are natural numbers. The paper's standing assumption L>L0+1L > L_0 + 1L>L0​+1 is a hypothesis wherever the paper states it; in Theorem 1 it follows from the threshold.
  • Costs, expectations, C(π)C(\pi)C(π), OPT(L)\mathrm{OPT}(L)OPT(L), VαnV^n_\alphaVαn​ and Vα∞V^\infty_\alphaVα∞​ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so infinite costs are never truncated. The ratio in Theorem 1 is stated as C(πr∗,S∗)<(1+ϵ)OPT(L)C(\pi_{r^*,S^*}) < (1+\epsilon)\mathrm{OPT}(L)C(πr∗,S∗​)<(1+ϵ)OPT(L), which is equivalent because 0<g≤OPT(L)≤U<∞0 < g \le \mathrm{OPT}(L) \le U < \infty0<g≤OPT(L)≤U<∞.
  • Π\PiΠ is exactly the paper's class: deterministic, time-dependent, measurable, nonnegative orders that depend on the pipeline and inventory. It is neither restricted to stationary policies nor enlarged to randomized ones. TBS policies are members, so C(πr,S)≥OPT(L)C(\pi_{r,S}) \ge \mathrm{OPT}(L)C(πr,S​)≥OPT(L) by construction.
  • ϑϵ∈[0,∞]\vartheta_\epsilon \in [0,\infty]ϑϵ​∈[0,∞] is the supremum of the minimizers of ϕϵ\phi_\epsilonϕϵ​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and it is ∞\infty∞ if the infimum is not attained; 1/∞=01/\infty = 01/∞=0.
  • The existence of a best TBS pair is asserted in the paper via JSS. The goal therefore also asserts that some TBS policy with 0≤r≤E[D]0 \le r \le \mathbb E[D]0≤r≤E[D] meets the bound, so it cannot hold vacuously when no minimizer exists.
  • rLr_LrL​ belongs to a witness of Theorem 2, and the results that use it hold for every witness.
  • The single-source class Πˉ\bar\PiΠˉ ("feasible nonanticipative policies, as typically defined") is read as nonnegative orders that are measurable functions of past demands. In Lemma 3 "increasing" is read as nondecreasing, and convexity in xxx includes finiteness.
  • The paper states Eq. (3) without a range for rrr; it is stated here for 0≤r≤E[D]0 \le r \le \mathbb E[D]0≤r≤E[D], the TBS parameters over which the paper optimizes. At r=E[D]r = \mathbb E[D]r=E[D] both sides are +∞+\infty+∞. In Lemma 8, the range's upper end is +∞+\infty+∞ when ϵ=0\epsilon = 0ϵ=0.
  • Differences such as Vα∞−VαnV^\infty_\alpha - V^n_\alphaVα∞​−Vαn​ and M∞r−MnrM^r_\infty - M^r_nM∞r​−Mnr​ are stated additively, and the negative terms of (9) and Corollary 3 are moved to the other side.

Lemma 1, Eq. (3) and Lemma 3 are results the paper quotes from Sheopuri et al. (2010), JSS and Scarf (1960). Proposition 1 (conditional-expectation form of the bound) is not included.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: OPT(L)\mathrm{OPT}(L)OPT(L) ranges over the full admissible class, the constants are definitions rather than hypotheses, and the goal includes an existence clause.

Reusable beyond this mission: average-cost inventory models with lead times, discounted single-source backlog value functions, and Spitzer-type identities for random-walk maxima. Contributions to any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Xin and D. A. Goldberg, Asymptotic Optimality of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual-Sourcing Inventory Systems, Management Science 64(1):437–452, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2607
  • G. Janakiraman, S. Seshadri and A. Sheopuri, Analysis of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual Sourcing Inventory Systems, Management Science 61(7):1547–1561, 2015.
  • G. Allon and J. A. Van Mieghem, Global Dual Sourcing: Tailored Base-Surge Allocation to Near- and Offshore Production, Management Science 56(1):110–124, 2010.
  • A. Sheopuri, G. Janakiraman and S. Seshadri, New Policies for the Stochastic Inventory Control Problem with Two Supply Sources, Operations Research 58(3):734–745, 2010.
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960, pp. 196–202.
  • L. Xin and D. A. Goldberg, Optimality Gap of Constant-Order Policies Decays Exponentially in the Lead Time for Lost Sales Models, Operations Research 64(6):1556–1565, 2016.
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