Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary ControlResearch Paper
Motivation
Open Markovian quantum systems with fast and full Hamiltonian control can be reduced to an equivalent control system on the standard simplex modelling the dynamics of the eigenvalues of the density matrix describing the quantum state. We explore this reduced control system for answering questions on reachability and stabilizability with immediate applications to the cooling of Markovian quantum systems. We show that for certain tasks of interest, the control Hamiltonian can be chosen time-independent. -- The reduction picture is an example of dissipative interconversion between equivalence classes of states, where the classes are induced by fast controls.
This mission is the statement-level formalization of Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary Control (arXiv:2308.00561v1). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.
What is formalized
61 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Theorem 4.7: Asymptotic cooling equals constant-Hamiltonian pure-state global attraction (Theorem 4.7: Asymptotic cooling equals constant-Hamiltonian pure-state global attraction, PDF p. 17). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.
The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.
Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.
Deferred results
11 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:
Theorem 2.4: Equivalence Theorem: A consistent full statement of Theorem 2.4: Equivalence Theorem (source-ambiguity)
Proposition 2.6: Lie saturate of the full system: A consistent full statement of Proposition 2.6: Lie saturate of the full system (source-ambiguity)
Proposition 3.2: Strong stabilization and compensating Hamiltonian: A consistent full statement of Proposition 3.2: Strong stabilization and compensating Hamiltonian (source-ambiguity)
Proposition 3.5: Eight criteria for viability of a face: A consistent full statement of Proposition 3.5: Eight criteria for viability of a face (source-ambiguity)
Lemma 4.11: Rank-d global attraction and non-enclosing lazy subspaces: A consistent full statement of Lemma 4.11: Rank-d global attraction and non-enclosing lazy subspaces (source-ambiguity)
Corollary 4.13: Non-enclosing lazy subspace criterion for direct reachability: A consistent full statement of Corollary 4.13: Non-enclosing lazy subspace criterion for direct reachability (source-ambiguity)
Proposition 4.19: Direct versus indirect face reachability: A consistent full statement of Proposition 4.19: Direct versus indirect face reachability (source-ambiguity)
Lemma C.3: Freedom of CP-generator representation: A consistent full statement of Lemma C.3: Freedom of CP-generator representation (source-ambiguity)
Lemma C.19: Attractive support via Hamiltonian control: A consistent full statement of Lemma C.19: Attractive support via Hamiltonian control (source-ambiguity)
Unnumbered reduced/full Lie-saturate relations: A consistent full statement of Unnumbered reduced/full Lie-saturate relations (source-ambiguity)
Unnumbered uniqueness of the Hamiltonian part: A consistent full statement of Unnumbered uniqueness of the Hamiltonian part (source-ambiguity)
Selected references
Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary Control, arXiv:2308.00561v1, https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00561v1
Operator-sum Representation for Bosonic Gaussian ChannelsResearch Paper
Motivation
Operator-sum or Kraus representations for single-mode Bosonic Gaussian channels are developed, and several of their consequences explored. Kraus operators are employed to bring out the manner in which the unphysical matrix transposition map when accompanied by injection of a threshold classical noise becomes a physical channel. The action of the quantum-limited attenuator and amplifier channels as simply scaling maps on suitable quasi-probabilities in phase space is examined in the Kraus picture. Consideration of cumulants is used to examine the issue of fixed points. In the cases of entanglement-breaking channels a description in terms of rank one Kraus operators is shown to emerge quite simply. In contradistinction, it is shown that there is not even one finite rank operator in the entire linear span of Kraus operators of the quantum-limited amplifier or attenuator families, an assertion far stronger than the statement that these are not entanglement breaking channels. A characterization of extremality in terms of Kraus operators, originally due to Choi, is employed to show that all quantum-limited Gaussian channels are extremal. The fact that every noisy Gaussian channel can be realised as product of a pair of quantum-limited channels is used to construct a discrete set of linearly independent Kraus operators for noisy Gaussian channels, including the classical noise channel, and these Kraus operators have a particularly simple structure.
This mission is the statement-level formalization of Operator-sum Representation for Bosonic Gaussian Channels (arXiv:1012.4266v1). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.
What is formalized
34 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is §III Eq.(3.11): explicit phase-conjugation Kraus family (§III Eq.(3.11): explicit phase-conjugation Kraus family, PDF p. 6). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.
The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.
Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.
Deferred results
36 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:
Paper headline / §II Eqs.(2.1)–(2.4): vacuum-dilation Kraus construction: vacuum dilation, infinite tensor embedding and nuclear partial trace (hard)
§II Eqs.(2.5)–(2.10): Hermite generating-function evaluation: normalized Hermite Fock–Schroedinger transform and canonical metaplectic matrix elements (hard)
§II Eq.(2.7): unrestricted nonsingular M reading: §II Eq.(2.7): unrestricted nonsingular M reading (source-ambiguity)
Theorem 4: invariant thermal state and attraction: Theorem 4: invariant thermal state and attraction (source-ambiguity)
Eqs.(3.30)–(3.35): phase-conjugator action on thermal states: thermal density, its exact parameter iteration, and local logarithmic characteristic derivatives (hard)
Theorem 6: attenuation scales the diagonal weight: distributional diagonal P weight and its connection to the actual B channel and Weyl law (hard)
§VI fixed-point remark: A2 has no invariant density: concrete A2 channel on all densities with its characteristic law (hard)
Eqs.(7.1),(7.8): random-displacement representation for B1: actual Weyl displacement Gaussian mixture and its normal-channel convex structure (hard)
Theorem 13: quantum-limited channels are extremal: convex set of all normal CPTP maps and Gaussian/metaplectic equivalence (hard)
§VIII remark: D(1) is bistochastic but not random unitary: all probability-measure random-unitary mixtures and a bounded-observable normal extension (hard)
§I/§VIII: only quantum-limited Gaussian channels are extremal: normal-CPTP convex decompositions and independent Gaussian quantum-limit predicate (hard)
Table I: full canonical composition table: all sixteen canonical composition classes, including singular A2 and metaplectic equivalence (hard)
Theorem 14: noisy decomposition and independent discrete Kraus families: noisy canonical Gaussian channels and exact two-factor identification (hard)
§IX: noisy A2 as a quantum-limited composite: noisy A2 canonical class and mixed continuous/discrete Kraus kernel (hard)
Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the themeResearch Paper
Motivation
The relative entropy of entanglement ER is defined as the distance of a multi-partite quantum state from the set of separable states as measured by the quantum relative entropy. We show that this optimisation is always achieved, i.e. any state admits a closest separable state, even in infinite dimensions; also, ER is everywhere lower semi-continuous. We use this to derive a dual variational expression for ER in terms of an external supremum instead of infimum. These results, which seem to have gone unnoticed so far, hold not only for the relative entropy of entanglement and its multi-partite generalisations, but also for many other similar resource quantifiers, such as the relative entropy of non-Gaussianity, of non-classicality, of Wigner negativity \unicode8212 more generally, all relative entropy distances from the sets of states with non-negative λ-quasi-probability distribution. The crucial hypothesis underpinning all these applications is the weak*-closedness of the cone generated by free states, and for this reason the techniques we develop involve a bouquet of classical results from functional analysis. We complement our analysis by giving explicit and asymptotically tight continuity estimates for ER and closely related quantities in the presence of an energy constraint.
This mission is the statement-level formalization of Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the theme (arXiv:2105.08091v3). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.
What is formalized
10 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Theorem 5 (seed): attainability, lower semicontinuity, compactness and uniqueness (Theorem 5 (seed): attainability, lower semicontinuity, compactness and uniqueness, PDF p. 7). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.
The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.
Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.
Deferred results
29 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:
Theorem 9: dual variational formula for resource relative entropy: support-compressed exponential and log-partition (hard)
Lemma 11: Gibbs variational formula without faithfulness: log-partition at singular and zero positive trace-class operators (hard)
Lemma 13: duality for a weak*-compact convex subnormalised set: support-compressed log-partition and extended inner supremum (hard)
Remark 14: Petz dual formula without faithfulness: nonfaithful Petz log-partition functional (hard)
Corollary 20: bipartite relative entropy of entanglement: completed bipartite state space, closed-hull separability and log-partition (hard)
Corollary 22: weak*-closed cones for partition separability: partition-indexed completed tensor products and closed-hull pi-separability (hard)
Corollary 23: multipartite relative entropy of partition entanglement: multipartite pi-separable distance and log-partition (hard)
Corollary 25: relative entropy of NPT entanglement: PPT state space, extended distance and log-partition (hard)
Lemma 30: photon-number attenuation preserves lambda positivity: concrete Weyl representation, lambda-positive states and number attenuation (hard)
Corollary 31: weak*-closed lambda-positive cone: lambda-positive cone on the actual m-mode Hilbert space (hard)
Corollary 32: relative entropy of lambda negativity: lambda-positive distance and support-compressed dual formula (hard)
Lemma 33 (cited): quantum Darmois–Skitovich characterisation as printed: a corrected quantum Darmois-Skitovich statement and unitary beam splitter (source-ambiguity)
Lemma 34: weak*-closed cone of Gaussian states: all displaced m-mode Gaussian states as actual trace-class states (hard)
Corollary 35: attainability and lower semicontinuity of non-Gaussianity: Gaussian-state set, Gaussification and moment-defined entropy identity (hard)
Unnumbered consequence after Corollary 35: entropy of Gaussification: actual Gaussification on the finite-number-energy state set (hard)
Unnumbered result (124): finite-local-dimension continuity bounds: six bipartite entanglement measures and tensor-power regularizations (hard)
Proposition 36: bipartite energy continuity estimates (125),(127): all six resource measures, energy moduli and oscillator specialization (hard)
Proposition 36: generic-G asymptotic-tightness clause: a valid hypothesis set for generic-G asymptotic tightness (source-ambiguity)
Remark 37: faithfulness of the bipartite continuity modulus: the source-admissible G and actual generalized-inverse continuity modulus (hard)
Corollary 38: uniform and asymptotic continuity of six bipartite measures: six bipartite measures on correlated n-copy states and additive energy (hard)
Unnumbered multipartite entropy upper bounds (149),(150), proved in Appendix C: multipartite marginals and extended local entropy upper bounds (hard)
Unnumbered result (151): finite-dimensional multipartite continuity: partition separability, one unrestricted final factor and singleton-only regularization (hard)
Proposition 39: multipartite energy continuity estimates (155)–(157): multipartite energy budgets and the complete three continuity moduli (hard)
Proposition 39: asymptotic-tightness clause for m=2: partition-restricted large-energy tightness (source-ambiguity)
Remark 40: faithfulness of multipartite continuity moduli: the actual H[s] entropy capacity and multipartite moduli (hard)
Corollary 41: uniform and asymptotic multipartite continuity: grouped multipartite copies, additive local energies and partition measures (hard)
Lemma 43: infinite-dimensional Lieb three-operator inequality: support-compressed exponential of log A+log B-log C (hard)
Lemma 44: countably decomposable separable approximation to a pure state: actual countable pure-product mixture with all prescribed marginals (hard)
Selected references
Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the theme, arXiv:2105.08091v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08091v3
Comparison of Quantum Channels by SuperchannelsResearch Paper
Motivation
We extend the definition of the conditional min-entropy from bipartite quantum states to bipartite quantum channels. We show that many of the properties of the conditional min-entropy carry over to the extended version, including an operational interpretation as a guessing probability when one of the subsystems is classical. We then show that the extended conditional min-entropy can be used to fully characterize when two bipartite quantum channels are related to each other via a superchannel (also known as supermap or a comb) that is acting on one of the subsystems. This relation is a pre-order that extends the definition of "quantum majorization" from bipartite states to bipartite channels, and can also be characterized with semidefinite programming. As a special case, our characterization provides necessary and sufficient conditions for when a set of quantum channels is related to another set of channels via a single superchannel. We discuss the applications of our results to channel discrimination, and to resource theories of quantum processes. Along the way we study channel divergences, entropy functions of quantum channels, and noise models of superchannels, including random unitary superchannels, and doubly-stochastic superchannels. For the latter we give a physical meaning as being completely-uniformity preserving.
This mission is the statement-level formalization of Comparison of Quantum Channels by Superchannels (arXiv:1808.02607v3). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.
What is formalized
21 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Quantum majorization of channels by all paired entropy tests (Theorem 7, continued p.19, PDF p. 18). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.
The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.
Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.
Two-Sided Platform Competition in a Sharing Economy: Which Wage Scheme Maximizes Platform Profit Is Decided by Demand- versus Supply-Side CompetitionResearch Paper
Motivation
Sharing-economy platforms (ride-sharing, car-sharing, peer-to-peer lending) sit between two groups. They charge consumers a price and pay self-scheduling workers a wage, and they compete with rival platforms on both sides at once. How a platform pays its workers is a design choice that varies across the industry: some announce a fixed wage per job, some a fixed commission rate on the consumer price, and some, as Uber did in its "upfront pricing" experiments, set prices and wages job by job. Drivers and regulators have argued over these schemes, and whether the choice matters for the platforms' own profits is a question in its own right.
Zhang, Chen and Raghunathan (SSRN 3555993, published in Management Science, 2022) answer it in a parsimonious duopoly model with linear demand and supply. Their main comparison, Proposition 3, shows that every scheme can be the most profitable one. Which one wins depends on whether consumers or workers switch more readily between the platforms. Many two-sided platform models, for example ones in which supply does not respond to the rival's wage, find no such reversal.
Setting
Two platforms i∈{1,2}, with iˉ=3−i, charge consumer prices pi and pay wages wi per transaction. Six parameters a,b,c,k,l,m>0 define
di=a−b(pi−piˉ)−cpi,si=−k+l(wi−wiˉ)+mwi,
the demand and the worker supply of platform i. Here b measures how readily consumers switch platforms, c the price sensitivity of loyal consumers, l how readily workers switch, and m the wage sensitivity of loyal workers. A transaction needs both a consumer and a worker, so the transaction volume is max{0,min{di,si}} and the profit is
πi=(pi−wi)max{0,min{di,si}}.
The standing assumptions are Assumption 1, a/c>k/m, and Assumption 2, l≤2c+c2/b.
Three wage schemes define three games:
DCR (dynamic commission rate). The platforms simultaneously choose a price pi and a commission rate αi. The wage is wi=(1−αi)pi, so profit is αipimax{0,min{di,si}}.
FCR (fixed commission rate). The platforms first announce commission rates αi, then, having observed both, set prices.
FW (fixed wage). The platforms first announce wages wi, then set prices.
DCR is solved by Nash equilibrium. FCR and FW are solved by subgame-perfect equilibrium: a stage-2 price rule must give a Nash equilibrium of the pricing game after every pair of stage-1 announcements, and no stage-1 announcement may be improved on. The paper studies symmetric equilibria with positive demand and supply. Write πD∗,πF∗,πW∗ for the resulting platform profits.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 3
Write αD∗ for the DCR equilibrium commission rate and
Q=(b+c)(l+m)αD∗b+c+l+m−(1−αD∗)(cl−bm)b+(1−αD∗)l
for the left side of the paper's Inequality (13). For every symmetric equilibrium of each game with positive demand and supply:
The goal is stated about the equilibria of the three games, not about the closed-form prices.
Milestones
Lemma 1 (p. 10): the DCR game has exactly one symmetric equilibrium with positive demand and supply, given by the closed forms (4) and (5), and 0<αD∗<1.
Lemma 2 (p. 11): the FCR equilibrium commission rate is the unique zero in (αˉ,1) of the quadratic f of (44), equivalently the solution of (6). The price is (a+k)/(c+m(1−α∗)), (7).
Lemma 3 (p. 12): the FW equilibrium wage and price are (8) and (9).
Profit increases in price (A.8, p. 52): with demand equal to supply, profit is a concave quadratic in the equilibrium price. All three equilibrium prices lie on its increasing branch.
Three price comparisons (A.8, pp. 52–53):
pW∗−pD∗ has the sign of bm−cl;
αD∗<αF∗ if and only if (13) holds;
αW∗<αF∗ if and only if cl>bm.
Significance
Proposition 3 makes the choice of wage scheme a substantive strategic variable. The fixed-wage scheme is either the best or the worst for the platforms, and the fixed-commission scheme is never the worst. The ranking of profits equals the ranking of equilibrium prices and reverses that of wages. The paper's welfare results (Propositions 4 and 5) build on it, since consumer and worker surplus orderings are read off the same price ranking.
Formalizing it adds three things:
A checked equilibrium analysis. The appendix's equilibrium analysis is partly written out and partly asserted ("we can verify that neither platform has incentive to deviate").
Corrected statements. The printed comparisons contain slips; see Formalization scope.
A model for later work. The definitions give a reusable formal model of two-stage price competition with endogenous two-sided supply.
The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked.
Difficulty
The comparison itself, once the equilibria are known, is rational-function algebra. The difficulty is the equilibrium characterizations.
The payoff is kinked. Profit is a product of a margin and a minimum of demand and supply, so each best response must be analysed region by region: supply exceeding demand, matching it, or falling short.
FCR and FW need the whole subgame. Their stage-2 pricing games must be solved after every pair of announcements, including off-path pairs in which a rival's supply is non-positive.
Local optimality is not enough. The obvious argument, setting the derivative of the stage-1 profit to zero along the matched-supply branch, gives only a necessary condition. Existence needs global deviations ruled out, in particular a platform raising its wage enough that its own supply exceeds demand. That is exactly where Assumption 2 enters.
Formalization scope
Parameters. All six parameters are reals and strictly positive (R+ read as >0). Assumptions 1 and 2 are bundled in Params.Standing.
Strategies.
Actions range over all of R: prices, commission rates and wages alike. No bound such as 0≤α≤1 is imposed.
DCR actions are pairs (price, commission rate).
A two-stage profile is a pair of stage-1 actions together with stage-2 price rules Pi:R2→R. "Symmetric" means equal stage-1 actions and equal on-path prices; off-path play is unrestricted.
Truncated volume. The paper writes the volume as min{di,si}. With negative values allowed, the profit is unbounded above and no equilibrium exists, so the formalization uses max{0,min{di,si}}.
Non-trivial equilibria. Equilibria are required to have positive demand and supply on the path (p. 9). Zero-volume symmetric equilibria exist and are excluded.
Continuity on the path. Two-stage equilibria are required to have stage-2 price rules continuous at the equilibrium stage-1 pair. The appendix presupposes this when it differentiates the subgame prices in the stage-1 actions. It is necessary: without it, zero-profit equilibria of nearby pricing subgames can punish every deviation, and other FCR commission rates become subgame-perfect outcomes.
Corrections to the printed statements.
Case (c). It is stated with "Q<0" where the paper says "(13) does not hold". At Q=0 the DCR and FCR outcomes coincide and the strict ranking fails.
αW∗. It is defined as 1−wW∗/pW∗, because the appendix's displayed closed form has the sign of k reversed.
Denominators. Real divisions occur in (6) and (13), and their denominators are carried or proved nonzero.
A formalization that compares only the closed-form prices, or uses the literal untruncated payoff (which makes every statement about equilibria vacuous), is not this mission.
Contributions welcome:
best-response lemmas for the kinked profit;
existence of pricing equilibria in every subgame;
the global no-deviation arguments behind Lemmas 2 and 3;
D. M. Kreps, J. A. Scheinkman, Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes, Bell Journal of Economics 14(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003636
S. C. Choi, Price Competition in a Channel Structure with a Common Retailer, Marketing Science 10(4), 271–296, 1991, the source the paper cites for its linear demand model (p. 7). https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.10.4.271
Decoding Quantum Tanner Codes: The Parallel Decoder Corrects Every Error of Weight Linear in the Code Length in Logarithmically Many RoundsResearch Paper
Why decoding good quantum LDPC codes matters
Quantum computers must correct errors faster than they accumulate, and quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes are the leading candidates for doing so with little overhead: every check involves a bounded number of qubits, so syndromes can be measured by local circuits. In 2021–2022 the first asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes appeared, with dimension and minimum distance both linear in the code length n: the expander lifted product codes of Panteleev and Kalachev (arXiv:2111.03654) and the quantum Tanner codes of Leverrier and Zémor (arXiv:2202.13641). A code is only useful if errors can be corrected efficiently. Leverrier and Zémor (arXiv:2208.05537) give two decoders for quantum Tanner codes that correct every error of weight up to a constant fraction of n: a sequential one running in linear time, and a parallel decoder running in a logarithmic number of rounds of local updates. This mission is about the parallel decoder.
Timeline:
2021, Panteleev–Kalachev: asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes and locally testable classical codes (arXiv:2111.03654).
2022, Leverrier–Zémor: quantum Tanner codes, a simpler construction on left-right Cayley complexes (arXiv:2202.13641).
2022, Leverrier–Zémor, Decoding quantum Tanner codes: sequential and parallel decoders up to a constant fraction of n, with a revised parallel analysis in v3 (arXiv:2208.05537v3).
The code and the decoder
Let G be a finite group and A=A−1, B=B−1⊆G with ∣A∣=∣B∣=Δ. The quadripartite left-right Cayley complex has four copies of G as vertices, Vij=G×{ij}, and one square{(g,00),(ag,01),(gb,10),(agb,11)} for every (g,a,b)∈G×A×B. The set of squares Q has n=∣G∣Δ2 elements, and every vertex v sees its Q-neighbourhood Q(v) as an A×B array: columns are indexed by b, rows by a. The left Cayley graph Cay(G,A) and the right Cayley graph Cay(G,B) are assumed to be non-bipartite Ramanujan graphs: every adjacency eigenvalue other than ±Δ has absolute value at most 2Δ−1.
Two local codes CA⊆F2A, CB⊆F2B with dimCA+dimCB=Δ are fixed. Write V0=V00∪V11 and V1=V01∪V10. The code C1⊆F2Q consists of the vectors whose view on every Q(v), v∈V1, lies in the dual tensor codeCA⊗F2B+F2A⊗CB: every local view is a sum of a word whose columns are in CA and a word whose rows are in CB. C0 is defined in the same way on V0 with CA⊥, CB⊥. The local codes and their duals have distance at least δΔ. Both dual tensor codes are κ-product-expanding: every codeword x splits as x=c+r with ∣x∣≥κΔ(∥c∥+∥r∥), where ∥c∥ counts non-zero columns and ∥r∥ non-zero rows.
A σx-type error e∈F2Q is decoded in three phases. In the preprocessing phase every v∈V1 chooses a minimum-weight local error εv with the local syndrome of e; the mismatch is Z=∑v∈V1εv. The mismatch decomposition writes Z=C^0+R^0+C^1+R^1, with C^j a sum of CA-columns and R^i a sum of CB-rows. Postprocessing outputs e^=∑v∈V10εv+C^0+R^1. The parallel decoder (Algorithm 3) runs rounds of four substeps, one for each of V00,V01,V10,V11. In a substep, every vertex v of the current class simultaneously looks for a non-zero local dual tensor codeword xv on Q(v) with ∣Z^∣−∣Z^+xv∣≥∣xv∣/2, picks one of maximum weight, splits it as cv+rv with ∥cv∥+∥rv∥ minimal, and updates C^j, R^i and Z^.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 20 (= Theorem 3)
Fix ε∈(0,1/6) and δ,κ>0. For all Δ large enough, every error with
∣e∣<2121min(16ε3,4κ)δ2κ2Δn
is corrected by every run of the parallel decoder. With θ=41(41−23ε), each round satisfies ∣Z^k+1∣≤(1−θ)∣Z^k∣, so Z^k=0 once (1−θ)k⋅4∣e∣<1, and then e+e^ lies in the span C0⊥ of the σx-generators.
Milestones
Lemma 4 (expander mixing) and Lemma 5: λ(G0□),λ(G1□)≤4Δ.
Lemmas 7, 10, 11, 8 and Theorem 9: the minimum distance, dmin≥δ2κ2n/(1024Δ).
Lemmas 14, 15, 16 and Theorem 12: if a minimum decomposition of a non-zero mismatch has few active vertices, some local codeword lowers ∣Z∣ by (1−ε)∣xv∣.
Lemma 17: ∣Z∣≤4∣e∣ and ∥Z∥≤4∣e∣/(κΔ).
Lemma 19: below 2−16ε3κ2δ2n/Δ, sequential decoding with parameter 1/2 never stalls, and switching to ε still converges.
Lemma 18: if the ε-sequential decoder converges, one parallel round removes at least θ∣Z∣.
Significance
The theorem shows that asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes can be decoded against adversarial errors of linear weight by O(logn) rounds of local computation, each vertex acting only on its own Q-neighbourhood. This matters for fault tolerance, where decoding latency is a bottleneck. The milestones carry independent value. Theorem 9 is a linear minimum distance bound for quantum Tanner codes in the quadripartite setting. Theorem 12 is the local-to-global "weight reduction" principle on which both decoders rest. Lemmas 4–5 are spectral facts about Cayley graphs and square complexes that are reusable for any expander-based code.
The paper's results are proved, not open; none has been machine-checked. The sequential decoder's correctness (Theorem 13) is posed separately on the platform as an open goal in the mission Decoding quantum Tanner codes (Leverrier, Zemor), which shares this mission's published definitions; this mission does not restate it. Formalizing the present chain would give a complete, checked proof that a parallel decoder exists for good quantum LDPC codes, and would expose the constants. Two printed constants are corrected here (see the scope section), and sharper constants or simpler arguments are welcome.
Difficulty
The obvious argument is to bound the mismatch and its norm, apply Theorem 12 repeatedly, and let all vertices of a class flip at once. That argument fails because parallel flips are not sequential flips. A vertex's best local move against the mismatch at its turn need not be the move a converging sequential run would make, and a round could stall even though a sequential run never does. Lemma 18 resolves this with a virtual sequential run, a partition of its increments into "good" and "bad" ones (Claim 1), and the maximum-weight rule at every vertex. Without that rule the lemma is false. Theorem 12 itself is a counting contradiction. It uses robustness, the expander mixing lemma twice, and two notions of "exceptional" vertices, and it needs Δ large. Theorem 9 needs the coset-minimization of Lemma 7 before the same counting can start.
Formalization scope
The development builds on the published layers QAlgorithms_Defs_TensorCode and QAlgorithms_Defs_TannerDecoder. These define the complex, φv, C0, C1, the σx span, minimum local corrections, the mismatch, Algorithm 2 and the output e^. The conventions are:
A vertex (g,ij) is (g, (i, j)) : G × (Bool × Bool), squares are G × A × B, and weights are hammingNorm cast to ℝ.
One new definitions file holds Algorithm 3 (admissible move, parallel choice, substep, round, run), decompositions and their norm, active, exceptional and ordinary vertices, the clustering sets T, stalled and converging sequential decoders, C1⊥, and the square graphs Gk□.
"Δ large enough" is ∃Δ0∀Δ≥Δ0, with Δ0 depending only on the constants fixed before it.
Only σx-type errors are treated; the σz case is symmetric.
Non-bipartiteness of the Cayley graphs (the standing choice of p. 10) is assumed wherever spectral bounds are used.
Theorem 12 assumes Z=0 and asks for a non-zero xv.
Corrected constants. Theorem 9 is stated with 1024 instead of the printed 256, because Lemma 8 and the proof's ∣x∣≥2κΔ∥x∥ give 1024. The goal's error bound uses min(ε3/16,κ/4) instead of min(ε3/16,κ), which is what the corrected distance supports. Both corrected statements are weaker than the printed ones.
No trivialization. Every vertex must flip a maximum-weight admissible move whenever one exists, and runs range over all such choices. "Logarithmic time" is the per-round contraction factor, not mere eventual termination. Validity is membership of e+e^ in the σx-generator span, with e^ the paper's postprocessing output. A formalization that lets vertices idle, drops the maximum-weight rule, or proves only eventual termination does not prove this theorem.
Needed and reusable infrastructure:
spectral graph theory for regular multigraphs (expander mixing, eigenvalues of commuting Cayley adjacencies);
product expansion and local minimality of decompositions;
the combinatorics of the left-right complex (shared rows and columns).
Contributions proving the graph lemmas or Lemma 18, whose proof is pure counting, are especially welcome.
Selected references
A. Leverrier, G. Zémor, Decoding quantum Tanner codes, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory; arXiv:2208.05537v3, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.05537
P. Panteleev, G. Kalachev, Asymptotically good quantum and locally testable classical LDPC codes, STOC 2022; arXiv:2111.03654. https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.03654
S. Gu, C. A. Pattison, E. Tang, An efficient decoder for a linear distance quantum LDPC code, STOC 2023; arXiv:2206.06557. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.06557
A. Leverrier, G. Zémor, Efficient decoding up to a constant fraction of the code length for asymptotically good quantum codes, SODA 2023; arXiv:2206.07571. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07571
I. Dinur, M.-H. Hsieh, T.-C. Lin, T. Vidick, Good quantum LDPC codes with linear time decoders, arXiv:2206.07750, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07750
High-Dimensional Learning Under Approximate Sparsity with Applications to Nonsmooth Estimation and Regularized Neural Networks: Excess-Risk Bounds at S3ONC Solutions of MCP-Regularized M-EstimationResearch Paper
Motivation
High-dimensional statistical learning (HDSL) fits a model with p parameters from n samples when p may far exceed n. The standard guarantees for sparse estimators, such as the Lasso, rest on restricted strong convexity (RSC) or restricted eigenvalue conditions on the empirical risk (Negahban et al., 2012; Loh & Wainwright, 2015). These conditions fail or are hard to verify for many losses that matter in operations research and machine learning: nonsmooth losses, losses of neural networks, and M-estimation problems whose population risk is not strongly convex near any sparse vector.
Liu, Ye and Lee (arXiv:1903.00616v2; Operations Research, 2022) remove RSC entirely. They regularize the empirical risk with a folded concave penalty, the minimax concave penalty (MCP) of Zhang (2010), and analyse not a global minimizer (intractable, since the problem is nonconvex) but any point satisfying a weak second-order stationarity condition. They also replace exact sparsity by approximate sparsity: the best sparse vector need only be εA-optimal for the population risk. Their main result, Theorem 1, gives an excess-risk bound whose sample complexity is poly-logarithmic in p.
Setting
Observations Z1,…,Zn are i.i.d. copies of a random element Z of a measurable space W. A loss L(β,z), with parameter β∈Rp, defines the population riskL(β)=E[L(β,Z)], assumed finite for every β and bounded below, the empirical riskLn(β)=n1∑iL(β,Zi), and the regularized objective
with tuning parameters a,λ>0. Norms: ∥⋅∥ is Euclidean, ∣⋅∣ is ℓ1, ∥⋅∥∞ is the max norm and ∥⋅∥0 counts nonzero entries.
The standing assumptions are:
smoothness (11): each partial derivative ∂L/∂βj is UL-Lipschitz along coordinate j, for almost every z;
Assumption 3: the centred losses L(β,Zi)−EL(β,Zi) are sub-exponential with ψ1-norm at most σ≥1 on the box ∥β∥∞≤R;
Assumption 4: L(⋅,z) is C(z)-Lipschitz on the box, where C(Zi) is sub-exponential around its mean (ψ1-norm at most σL≥1) and EC(Zi)≤Cμ, Cμ≥1;
Assumption 1 (A-sparsity): some βεA∗ with ∥βεA∗∥∞≤R, R≥1, and s=∥βεA∗∥0>1 nonzero entries satisfies L(βεA∗)−infβL(β)≤εA. Assumption 2 replaces infβL by any lower bound Lg∗.
A vector β^ satisfies the S³ONC (significant subspace second-order necessary conditions, Definition 1) at a sample if it is a KKT point of Ln,λ, with subgradients κj∈∂∣β^j∣, and UL+Pλ′′(∣β^j∣)≥0 whenever ∣β^j∣∈(0,aλ). With ζ~=ln(3eR(σL+Cμ)), Theorem 1 fixes λ=8σ/(can2/3)[ln(n2/3p)+ζ~], where c∈(0,1/2] is the constant of the Bernstein inequality (12).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 18)
For a<min{1/UL,1} and any random β^ with ∥β^∥∞≤R satisfying the S³ONC almost surely:
(i) if Ln,λ(β^)≤Ln,λ(βεA∗)+Γ almost surely and n>C3[((Γ+εA)/σ)3+s(ln(np)+ζ~)], then with probability at least 1−2(p+1)e−n/C3−6e−n1/3/C3,
(ii) if β^ is no worse in Ln,λ than a Lasso solution β^ℓ1, the Γ-free bound (22) holds under (21).
C3,C4 are universal constants. The goal fixes the polynomial rate n−1/3; the general-rate result is Proposition 1.
Milestones (the paper's proof chain)
Proposition 2: the S³ONC forces ∣β^j∣∈/(0,aλ) almost surely.
Lemma EC.1: the empirical risk is (2σL+Cμ)-Lipschitz on the box with high probability.
Proposition 3: uniform deviation of Ln from L over {∥β∥∞≤R,∥β∥0≤p′}.
Proposition 4: ∥β^∥0≤pu′−1 with high probability.
Lemma EC.2: comparison of the Lasso solution with βεA∗ in Ln,λ.
Proposition 5: the joint sparsity and excess-risk events for general ϱ∈(0,1/2).
Proposition 1: the excess-risk bounds (16), (18) at S³ONC solutions for general ϱ.
Significance
The theorem shows that second-order stationarity, which first- and second-order methods can certify (the paper's Theorem 2 gives a pseudo-polynomial algorithm), suffices for poly-logarithmic sample complexity in p without convexity or RSC. The paper builds on it for nonsmooth losses through smoothing (Theorem 3) and for regularized neural networks (Theorem 4). The same definitions layer (MCP, S³ONC, A-sparsity) serves those results.
The result is proved on paper, in the electronic companion of the cited preprint. Nothing of it is formalized: the platform has no folded concave penalty, no S³ONC and no excess-risk bound for sparse M-estimation without RSC. This mission provides the definitions, the goal and the proof chain as stated by the authors, with two disclosed adjustments (see Formalization scope).
Difficulty
The obvious argument bounds Ln(β^)−L(β^) uniformly over the box ∥β∥∞≤R and then compares β^ with βεA∗. It fails: a covering of a p-dimensional box costs a factor p, not lnp, in the sample size. The usual repair, RSC, which localizes the estimator near a sparse target, is exactly what the paper does without. β^ is moreover only a stationary point of a nonconvex objective, not a minimizer, so no optimality inequality over the whole space is available. The probabilistic part requires keeping the constants consistent across several union bounds and two Bernstein inequalities, with failure probabilities that must stay summable in the sparsity level. In Lean, an additional obstacle is that suprema over uncountable sparse sets are not obviously measurable.
Formalization scope
Data: an abstract measurable space W (its embedding in Rq plays no role), independent Zi with common law μ. L(β,⋅) is measurable and μ-integrable for every β, and L is bounded below, so infβL(β) is a genuine infimum.
Norms: the Euclidean norm is written out (Mathlib's norm on Fin p → ℝ is the sup norm). ∥⋅∥ψ1 is the published Orlicz norm HighDimProb.Concentration.subexponentialNorm, always together with an explicit witness of sub-exponentiality. The paper cites the equivalent moment form; the difference is absorbed by the universal constants.
Bernstein constant: (12) and the analogous bound for C(Zi) used in Lemma EC.1 are hypotheses with their constant c, quantified first. Every universal constant (C1–C4, c~) comes after c and before every problem object: p, n, the distribution, L, β^, Γ. Remark 1 asserts that such a c∈(0,1/2] exists; the platform's proved bernstein_weighted supplies one.
Derivatives: the gradient enters through coordinate partial derivatives, which is all (11), (13), (14) use. Pλ′,Pλ′′ are derivatives of the literal integral (4).
Probabilities: "with probability at least 1−δ" is an upper bound δ on the outer measure of the failure set.
Random vectors: β^ and β^ℓ1 are arbitrary measurable maps with the stated almost-sure properties; no statement constructs them.
Corrections: a<1 is added to Theorem 1 and Proposition 1. It is Proposition 5's hypothesis, which their printed proofs invoke. Proposition 4's ζ1(ϵ) prints σC, and σL is meant. Theorem 1's λ is kept as printed (ln(n2/3p)), although Proposition 1 at ϱ=1/3 uses ln(n1/3p).
The trivializing formalizations are ruled out explicitly: constants chosen after the instance, junk values of non-integrable expectations, empty infima or undefined derivatives, the sup norm in place of the Euclidean norm, and an estimator chosen by the theorem.
Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones in order; a Lean proof that Assumption 3 implies (12), via the published Bernstein inequality; a measurable-selection or outer-measure lemma for suprema over sparse boxes, which is reusable across high-dimensional statistics.
Selected references
H. Liu, Y. Ye, H. Y. Lee, High-dimensional learning under approximate sparsity with applications to nonsmooth estimation and regularized neural networks, Operations Research, 2022; preprint arXiv:1903.00616v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.00616
C.-H. Zhang, Nearly unbiased variable selection under minimax concave penalty, Annals of Statistics 38(2), 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/1002.4734
J. Fan, R. Li, Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753382273
S. N. Negahban, P. Ravikumar, M. J. Wainwright, B. Yu, A unified framework for high-dimensional analysis of M-estimators with decomposable regularizers, Statistical Science 27(4), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1010.2731
P.-L. Loh, M. J. Wainwright, Regularized M-estimators with nonconvexity: statistical and algorithmic theory for local optima, Journal of Machine Learning Research 16, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.2436
R. Vershynin, Introduction to the non-asymptotic analysis of random matrices, in Compressed Sensing: Theory and Applications, Cambridge University Press, 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.3027
Fluid Limits for Multiclass Many-Server Queues with General Reneging Distributions and Head-of-the-Line Scheduling: Fluid-Scaled States Are Tight and Their Limit Points Are Fluid Model SolutionsResearch Paper
Motivation
Call centers, hospital wards and other service systems with many agents serve several customer classes, and customers who wait too long hang up or leave. The standard model is the multiclass many-server queue with reneging: N identical servers, J classes, class-dependent service-time and patience-time distributions, and a control policy that decides when an idle server takes a customer and from which class. Exact analysis is out of reach once service and patience times are not exponential, so performance is studied through fluid limits: the limit of the system scaled by 1/N as N→∞.
A. L. Puha and A. R. Ward (MOR 2022, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1166) prove such a limit theorem for general service and patience distributions, batch arrivals and an arbitrary admissible head-of-the-line policy, including policies that idle or randomize. Earlier results covered one class without reneging (Kaspi and Ramanan, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2011), one class with reneging and unit arrivals (Kang and Ramanan, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2010), and static priority policies (Atar, Kaspi and Shimkin, Math. Oper. Res. 2014).
Setting
Fix J≥1 classes. Class j has a service-time distribution Gjs on R+ with density gjs, and a patience-time distribution Gjr on [0,∞] with density gjr on R+, so a customer may never abandon. For a distribution G with density g, H=sup{x:G(x)<1} is the right edge of its support and h=g/(1−G) on [0,H) is its hazard function.
In the N-th queue, class-j customers arrive by a counting process EjN that may jump by more than one. The state is (αN,XN,νN,ηN): XjN counts class-j customers in system; νjN is the age-in-service measure, a unit atom at the service age of each class-j customer in service; and ηjN is the potential-queue measure, a unit atom at the time in system of each class-j customer whose patience has not run out. The control enters only through the entry-into-service times. A head-of-the-line (HL) policy serves each class in order of arrival. It is admissible when the entry-into-service process KN is adapted to the filtration generated by the state history and the policy's own independent uniform random variables.
The fluid model works on the state space X=R+J×∏jM[0,Hjs)×∏jM[0,Hjr) of finite measures with the weak topology. Given an arrival functionE (nondecreasing, rcll, E(0)=0), a path (X,ν,η) defines the auxiliary functions Bj=⟨1,νj⟩, Qj=Xj−Bj, Dj(t)=∫0t⟨hjs,νj(u)⟩du, Kj=Bj+Dj−Bj(0), I=1−∑jBj, and the reneging function
A fluid model solution for E satisfies the constraints (35)–(37), the monotonicity of K, the balance law Xj=Xj(0)+Ej−Rj−Dj, and the transport equations (46)–(47) for νj and ηj driven by dKj and dEj.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 17)
Under Assumptions 4 and 5, for every sequence of admissible HL policies:
{(XˉN,νˉN,ηˉN)}Nis tight in D(X),
and every distributional limit point (X,ν,η) is, almost surely, a continuous fluid model solution for E started from (X0,ν0,η0), with continuous auxiliary functions and each ηj(t) charging no points. Assumptions 1–3 ask that the scaled arrivals and initial states converge. Assumption 4 asks that the hazards be bounded or lower semicontinuous near the right edges Hjs,Hjr. Assumption 5 adds continuity of E, an atomless η0, and control of KˉN by C-tightness or by inequality (55).
Milestones
Lemma 1, (24) and (26): the prelimit dynamic equations for ⟨f,νjN⟩ and ⟨ς,ηjN⟩.
Lemma 7: the compensator bounds ∣As,jN(φ,t)∣≤∥φ∥∞(XjN(0)+EjN(t))∫0mhjs and the reneging analogue.
Lemma 8: relative compactness in D(R+) of the fluid-scaled real processes, and their C-tightness under Assumption 5.
Lemma 2 (i) and (iii): continuity and the absence of atoms propagate along fluid model solutions.
Significance
Theorem 1 characterizes fluid limits for every admissible HL policy at once. To get the fluid limit of a specific policy, one adds the equations that policy imposes and proves uniqueness for the resulting system; the paper does this for weighted random buffer selection (its Theorems 3–5). The reneging equation (40) is the main new feature: abandonment depends on the whole distribution of waiting times in queue, not only on the queue length. Allowing batch arrivals means the reneging count can only be sandwiched between two compensators, which is why Lemma 6 is needed.
The results are proved in the paper, with parts of the tightness argument delegated to Kang–Ramanan and Kaspi–Ramanan. None of them is formalized. The mission defines from scratch a measure-valued queue with abandonment, the Skorokhod space D(X) with J1 convergence, and the fluid model of §3. These definitions are reusable for the single-class models of Kaspi–Ramanan and Kang–Ramanan, for the WRBS and static-priority policies, and for other measure-valued fluid limits.
Difficulty
Each milestone is a known argument, but the obvious route to the goal breaks at the reneging term. A naive limit passage in the prelimit reneging count RjN fails: with batch arrivals, RjN is not a functional of ηjN and QjN alone, because customers with equal waiting times may be split between queue and service. Identifying the limit as the nonlinear function (40) requires bounds from above and below by marked point processes. It also requires showing that the compensators of these processes converge to a common limit, which uses that η charges no points along the limit. The tightness part needs Kurtz–Jakubowski criteria for measure-valued processes on spaces [0,H) whose right end may carry escaping mass. Lemma 6 is a pathwise identity for finite counting measures, and Lemma 7 is a pathwise bound.
Formalization scope
Classes are Fin J with J≥1. Time is ℝ≥0. Customers are indexed by integers as in the paper. Event times are extended reals: a patience of ∞ keeps a customer in the potential queue forever, and an entry time of ∞ means the customer is never served. M[0,H) is FiniteMeasure on the subtype [0,H) of ℝ≥0. J1 convergence uses one time change for all coordinates, with the maximum of the sup-norm and Lévy–Prokhorov distances on X. Convergence in distribution, distributional limit points, relative compactness and C-tightness are stated in coupling form; on the Polish space D(X) these are equivalent to the usual notions. Hazards take values in [0,∞] and are 0 off [0,H). The integrals in (37), (40), (41), Lemma 6 and Lemma 7 are integrals of nonnegative functions. The derivative indicators that define the departure, reneging and marked processes are written as explicit counts.
Four readings are disclosed in the items. The goal's initial condition is stated through a coupling carrying (E,X0,ν0,η0) jointly, because the limit point lives on its own probability space. Gs,Gr in (46)–(47) are read as Gjs,Gjr. In Lemma 8, the (K.2) branch of Assumption 2 is read as relative compactness of KˉjN, because the printed (K.2) does not imply it. The goal encodes Assumption 2 as printed. The head-of-the-line order is the HL condition stated in words on pp. 8–9 rather than inequality (10) alone, which would let a policy skip a waiting customer for good and serve younger ones.
The statement admits trivializing formalizations, and they are excluded here. The HL predicate contains only the defining constraints of Definitions 1–3: entry no earlier than arrival and before abandonment (9), the head-of-the-line order (the HL condition of pp. 8–9, which contains (10): a customer can enter service only after every earlier customer of its class has entered or abandoned), the state constraints (S.1), (S.2), (15) and (16), and rcll paths. The identities (18)–(26) are not in it. All standing independence and distributional hypotheses and the adaptedness of KN are explicit. The auxiliary functions R,D,B,Q,K,I are computed from the path, never chosen. The policy is not specialized: idling and randomization are allowed.
Not posed: Lemmas 3–5, 9 and 10, Theorem 2, and Lemma 2 (ii) and (iv). Lemma 4 needs a server-assignment filtration, Lemma 5 needs predictable quadratic variations, and Theorem 2, Lemma 9 and Lemma 10 need measure-valued marked point processes on [0,H)×R+. Formalizing these, or a sorry-free construction of an admissible system satisfying Assumptions 1–5, is welcome.
Selected references
A. L. Puha, A. R. Ward, Fluid limits for multiclass many-server queues with general reneging distributions and head-of-the-line scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research, Articles in Advance, 2021 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1166
H. Kaspi, K. Ramanan, Law of large numbers limits for many-server queues, Annals of Applied Probability 21 (2011) 33–114. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP681
W. Kang, K. Ramanan, Fluid limits of many-server queues with reneging, Annals of Applied Probability 20 (2010) 2204–2260. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP683
R. Atar, H. Kaspi, N. Shimkin, Fluid limits for many-server systems with reneging under a priority policy, Mathematics of Operations Research 39 (2014) 672–696. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0632
Large Fork-Join Queues with Nearly Deterministic Arrival and Service Times: Fluid Limit of the Maximum Queue Length with a Non-Zero Initial ConditionResearch Paper
Motivation
A fork-join queue splits every incoming job into tasks, sends one task to each of N parallel servers, and declares the job complete only when all tasks are done. The model describes assembly systems in which a manufacturer orders parts from N suppliers and can only start production when every part has arrived, as well as parallel computing and storage systems in which a request is answered only after all sub-requests return. Because a job waits for its slowest task, the performance of the system is governed by the maximum queue length over the N servers, and the question of interest is how this maximum behaves when N is large and the system is heavily loaded.
Schol, Vlasiou and Zwart (arXiv:1912.11661, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022) study this question in a nearly deterministic regime: arrivals and services happen in almost every time slot, and the traffic intensity of each server tends to 1 at rate N−2. Even in the empty-start case the queue lengths of different servers are dependent, because every server sees the same arrival process; the maximum of N dependent random walks has to be analysed directly.
Timeline. Early work treats two service stations and obtains exact asymptotics (Flatto and Hahn, 1984; Baccelli, 1985; Wright, 1992). For more stations the literature turned to approximations and bounds: Nelson and Tantawi (1988) and Baccelli and Makowski (1989) bound the mean response time, and Ko and Serfozo (2004) approximate the response-time distribution in M/M/s fork-join queues. Heavy-traffic process limits for a fixed number of stations were obtained by Varma (1990) and Nguyen (1993, 1994), with reflected Brownian motion limits, and by Lu and Pang (2015–2017) for many-server stations. Sigman and Whitt (2011) analysed nearly deterministic G/G/1 and G/D/N queues. The paper of this mission gives a process-level (fluid) limit for the largest queue when the number of servers N itself grows, in the nearly deterministic regime and with a non-zero initial condition.
Setting
Fix α,β>0. For each N the system runs in discrete time slots j=1,2,…. In slot j a task arrives at all N servers with probability p(N)=1−α/N−β/N2 (indicator X(N)(j)), and server i completes a task with probability q(N)=1−α/N (indicator Yi(N)(j)), all indicators being independent. The arrival process is A(N)(n)=∑j=1nX(N)(j) and the service process of server i is Si(N)(n)=∑j=1nYi(N)(j).
Server i starts with Qi(N)(0)=⌊rNUi⌋ tasks, where U1,U2,… are i.i.d. random variables, the initial queue lengths are non-negative, and rN≥0 is a scaling sequence. By Lindley's recursion the maximum queue length at time n is
The first term alone is the maximum queue length of the system started empty. The initial condition is assumed to satisfy Q(α,β)(N)(0)/(NlogN)→q(0)≥0 in probability (Assumption 2.3), and either Ui has a finite right endpoint (Assumption 2.4) or Ui is continuous with −logP(Ui>vt)/−logP(Ui>t)→h(v) as t→∞ for all v∈[0,1] (Assumption 2.5, the Gumbel-domain case).
with g(t,q(0))=q(0)+2αt under Assumption 2.4 and g(t,q(0))=sup{2αtu+q(0)v:u2+h(v)≤1,0≤u,v≤1} under Assumption 2.5. In Lean these are fluid, fluidEmpty, gFinite and gGumbel; the queue is maxQueue and the empty-start queue maxQueueEmpty.
under Assumptions 2.1–2.3 and either Assumption 2.4 or Assumption 2.5 (one conjunct per case).
Milestones
Section 4.2 tools. The pathwise oscillation bound of Lemma 4.1; the non-uniform Berry–Esseen rate of Lemma 4.2 for the standardized service process; the moment bound of Lemma 4.3; the extreme-value Lemma B.1 for sums of independent relatively stable variables and its consequence Lemma 4.4 for the Gaussian surrogate of the initial condition.
Pointwise convergence (Section 4.3). Lemmas 4.6 and 4.8 (bounds for the empty-start system), Lemma 4.5 (its pointwise limit), Lemma 4.9 (the initial-condition part) and Theorem 4.1: Q(α,β)(N)(tN3logN)/(NlogN)→q(t) in probability for each t>0.
Tightness (Section 4.4). Lemma 4.10 (maxima preserve uniform convergence), Lemmas 4.11–4.12 (moduli of continuity of the two parts) and Corollary 4.1 (tightness of the scaled process on [0,T]).
Significance
The result. Theorem 2.1 identifies the scaling under which the maximum queue length of a large, heavily loaded fork-join system follows a deterministic curve: time of order N3logN and space of order NlogN. The limit separates the contribution of the empty-start dynamics, which saturate at the steady-state level α/(2β) after time α/(2β2), from the contribution of the initial backlog, which is governed by the extreme-value class of the initial condition. For instance, with h(v)=v and q(0)=α/(2β) the system "starts and stays in steady state" on an initial interval (p. 12). The theorem gives the transient behaviour needed to judge how long a backlog at the slowest supplier persists.
Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no part of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement of the model and of the fluid limit, and the intermediate results of Section 4. The proof combines a non-uniform Berry–Esseen inequality, extreme-value theory for maxima of sums, Doob's maximal inequality and a tightness criterion; formalizing it would give reusable Lean versions of several of these tools.
Difficulty
The obvious argument treats the N queues as independent reflected random walks and applies extreme-value theory to their maximum. It fails because all servers share the arrival process, so the queues are dependent. The paper handles this by splitting each queue into a common arrival term and an individual service term, but the individual terms are maxima of N centred random walks evaluated at a time of order N3logN, and their Gaussian approximation must be accurate at the scale of the maximum: a uniform Berry–Esseen bound is too weak, and a non-uniform bound with the right rate in N is needed (Lemma 4.2). Upgrading pointwise convergence to uniform convergence on [0,T] requires a modulus-of-continuity estimate for a maximum of N processes (Lemmas 4.11–4.12), where the number of processes grows with N. The initial-condition term requires an extreme-value result for maxima of sums of two independent coordinates with different tails (Lemma B.1).
Formalization scope
All objects are defined in one module, LargeForkJoin.FluidLimit.Model. Times are natural numbers, and Q(tN3logN) is evaluated at ⌊tN3logN⌋, which is the paper's own convention Q(n)=Q(⌊n⌋). Servers are indexed 0,…,N−1. All variables live on one probability space; the Bernoulli laws are imposed for N≥N0 (for small N, p(N) can be negative), and within each N≥N0 the arrival indicators, service indicators and initial-condition variables Ui used by that system are mutually independent. The independence of (Ui) from arrivals and services is an added assumption: the paper uses it in its proofs but does not state it. Initial queue lengths are non-negative almost surely. Assumption 2.5 adds P(Ui>t)>0 for all t, without which its ratio is undefined; "continuous" means "no atoms". Convergence in probability to a constant is written with ϵ-events, and sup0≤t≤T∣⋅∣>ϵ as "some t∈[0,T] has ∣⋅∣>ϵ", the same event. Lemmas 4.4 and 4.9 speak of Gaussian variables outside the model; they are stated for the law of N independent pairs (standard normal, law of U1).
The goal is stated about the maximum queue length built from the Bernoulli indicators through (2.3), uniformly on [0,T]. A statement about a Gaussian or reflected-Brownian surrogate (the heuristics of Sections 2.2–2.3), or a pointwise statement (Theorem 4.1), would not be Theorem 2.1.
Not included: Propositions 2.1–2.3 (other scalings and the steady state), the variant of Theorem 2.1 under Assumption 2.6, Theorem 4.2 (finite-dimensional distributions, a generic fact), and Lemma 4.7, whose statement includes the stationary case t=∞ and needs a stationary-queue object. Contributions of general tools are welcome: a non-uniform Berry–Esseen inequality for Bernoulli sums, extreme-value results for maxima of i.i.d. sequences (relative stability, Gumbel-domain tails), and the tightness criterion of Billingsley's Theorem 7.3.
Selected references
D. Schol, M. Vlasiou, B. Zwart, Large fork-join queues with nearly deterministic arrival and service times, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022; arXiv:1912.11661v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11661v3
L. Flatto, S. Hahn, Two parallel queues created by arrivals with two demands I, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 44(5), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1137/0144072
F. Baccelli, A. M. Makowski, Queueing models for systems with synchronization constraints, Proceedings of the IEEE 77(1), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/5.21076
R. Nelson, A. N. Tantawi, Approximate analysis of fork/join synchronization in parallel queues, IEEE Transactions on Computers 37(6), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1109/12.2212
K. Sigman, W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for nearly deterministic queues, Journal of Applied Probability 48(3), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1239/jap/1316796905
S.-S. Ko, R. F. Serfozo, Response times in M/M/s fork-join networks, Advances in Applied Probability 36(3), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1239/aap/1093962240
Discrete Dividend Payments in Continuous Time: The Value Function Is the Unique Fixed Point of the One-Period Dividend-and-Issuance OperatorResearch Paper
Why periodic dividends matter
A firm can return cash to shareholders by paying dividends, but a payment reduces the reserves available to survive future losses. If cash can be distributed only at scheduled dates while equity can be raised between those dates, the firm must coordinate a discrete dividend decision with a continuous-time financing decision. Keppo, Reppen and Soner study this combination for a firm whose cash flow is a Brownian motion with drift. Their preprint identifies the firm's optimal value through an operator that first solves the financing problem between dividend dates and then chooses the next dividend. The mission concerns that characterization, Theorem 3.4, together with the regularity results on which it depends.
The cash reserve model
Let x≥0 be the initial reserve and let Ct=μt+σWt, where W is a one-dimensional Brownian motion, μ>0 is profitability, and σ>0 is volatility. Dividends of amounts ℓn≥0 may be paid at dates nT, with T>0. Equity issues have sizes ζk≥0 and occur at stopping times τk; the issue times are locally finite. A positive issue costs
c(ζ)=λf+(1+λp)ζ,λf,λp>0,
while no issue costs zero. The cash reserve after actions at time t is Xt=x+Ct−Lt+It. The ruin timeθ is the first strictly positive time that Xt<0. A dividend cannot exceed the reserve immediately before its date, and no action is taken after ruin. These conditions define the admissible controls Ax.
The firm's value function is the supremum, over admissible controls, of expected discounted dividends less expected discounted issue costs:
The first sum includes a possible dividend at time zero, following the displayed objective in §3.1 of the preprint. An issue at time T belongs to the next period. Thus the one-period financing operator Lϕ charges issues on [0,T) and evaluates its continuation reward ϕ at the reserve immediately before T. The dividend operator is
Dϕ(x)=0≤ℓ≤xsup{ϕ(x−ℓ)+ℓ},T=D∘L.
The continuation classCA consists of the continuous, nondecreasing functions ϕ:[0,∞)→[0,∞) that satisfy the issuance boundary condition of Definition 3.2, are bounded above by x+A, and have ϕ(x)−x nondecreasing and bounded in absolute value by A. Its larger class CA omits the last condition. The intervention value in the boundary condition is Iϕ(x)=supζ>0{ϕ(x+ζ)−c(ζ)}.
Formalization targets
The first target is the mapping statement in Theorem 3.3: D:CA→CA for A≥0. With
A∗=eρT−1μT,
the next targets are the one-period bound 0≤Lϕ(x)≤e−ρTx+A for A≥A∗, the classical one-period characterization of Theorem 3.6, and the remaining mapping and contraction assertions of Theorem 3.3. In particular, T contracts the uniform distance between functions in CA by the factor e−ρT.
This identifies the fixed point with the value defined from admissible controls. It also asserts that the value is finite at every nonnegative initial reserve.
What the characterization gives
Theorem 3.4 turns an infinite-horizon control problem into repeated one-period calculations. Since Theorem 3.3 makes T a strict contraction on CA∗, iterating it determines the value in that class. The source connects this characterization to a numerical method when the one-period financing problem can be computed efficiently. A proof in Lean would also provide reusable statements about locally finite impulse controls, periodic actions, ruin, and discounted extended-real objectives. The preprint proves the mathematical results; this mission records their statements as open Lean theorems for machine-checked proofs.
Where the difficulty lies
The dividend operator is an elementary supremum over one payment, but the financing operator ranges over adapted impulses before ruin. Its regularity is central: the paper invokes Theorem 3.6 to show that Lϕ is continuous and satisfies the issuance boundary condition. That theorem characterizes the arbitrary-maturity issuance value as the unique classical solution of a parabolic equation with a nonlocal boundary condition. The fixed-point conclusion alone would leave an additional gap: Theorem 3.4 must identify that fixed point with the original control supremum, including the limit over dividend periods and its terminal reward.
Formalization scope
Lean represents nonnegative reserves by R≥0 and the discount, costs and function values by real numbers. Control values and one-period rewards are suprema in extended real numbers, with dividends and issue costs integrated separately as nonnegative quantities. The L bound proves the finiteness needed before converting to real values. An expression with both expected dividends and expected costs infinite takes the extended-real value −∞ and cannot improve a supremum with a finite admissible alternative.
The paper's cumulative processes are represented by nonnegative dividend amounts and a locally finite impulse sequence of nonnegative issues. This makes explicit that equity cannot be supplied by an uncharged continuous component. Simultaneous impulses are allowed; merging them cannot increase the cost. The Brownian cash flow uses the published AtaBarjesteh23.Workload.IsDriftBM definition. The model requires a probability measure, adaptation to a filtration, and positive ρ,μ,σ,λf,λp,T. The filtration is right-continuous and its initial σ-algebra contains all subsets of ambient null measurable sets, as required by the usual conditions. A dividend at time zero follows the objective's sum. In L, the continuation value uses XT−, resolving the free-issue-at-T ambiguity in the printed formula. The arbitrary-maturity problem retains its separately printed non-strict survival indicator.
The value V is defined solely from admissible controls, never from T or its iterates. Theorem 3.6 uses time to maturity and states smoothness only on the interior rectangle; uniqueness is restricted to the closed nonnegative time-state rectangle. Reusable work includes stopping-time measurability, impulse summation and parabolic regularity. Contributions proving the goal or the four listed milestones are within scope; §4's random-profitability model and §3.4's numerical experiments are outside this mission.
Selected references
J. Keppo, A. M. Reppen and H. M. Soner, Discrete Dividend Payments in Continuous Time, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021; preprint arXiv:1805.05077v2, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.05077v2
On Computing the Nonlinearity Interval in Parametric Semidefinite Optimization: The Set of Transition Points of the Optimal Partition Is FiniteResearch Paper
Motivation
Sensitivity analysis asks how the solution of an optimization problem changes when its data move. For linear optimization the answer has been known since the 1990s: as the objective is perturbed along a fixed direction, the optimal partition (which variables can be positive at an optimum and which slacks can) stays constant on open intervals and changes only at finitely many breakpoints, and the optimal value is piecewise linear with breakpoints exactly there (Adler and Monteiro, Algorithmica 8, 1992; Jansen, Roos and Terlaky, 1993). Semidefinite optimization (SDO) is used throughout control, combinatorial relaxations and polynomial optimization, and its parametric behaviour is less regular. The optimal partition can stay constant while the optimal sets move (a nonlinearity interval), and the optimal value need not be piecewise linear.
Mohammad-Nezhad and Terlaky (Optimization 69, 2020) defined invariancy intervals, nonlinearity intervals and transition points for parametric SDO. Hauenstein, Mohammad-Nezhad, Tang and Terlaky (arXiv:1908.10499v3; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022) prove that there are only finitely many transition points (Theorem 1, p. 8) and then compute nonlinearity intervals with numerical algebraic geometry. Finiteness is what makes a computational description possible: without it, the interior of the domain need not decompose into finitely many intervals of each kind.
Timeline:
1992–1993: Adler and Monteiro, and Jansen, Roos and Terlaky, start the optimal partition approach to parametric linear optimization.
1999: Goldfarb and Scheinberg extend the optimal partition approach to parametric SDO (Applied Numerical Mathematics 29).
2020: Mohammad-Nezhad and Terlaky introduce the optimal partition approach to parametric SDO (Definitions 3–5 of the present paper are taken from there).
2019–2022: Hauenstein, Mohammad-Nezhad, Tang and Terlaky prove that the transition points are finite (Theorem 1) and give the nonlinearity-interval algorithm.
Setting
Let Sn be the real symmetric n×n matrices with ⟨M,X⟩=tr(MX). Data: A1,…,Am,C,Cˉ∈Sn and b∈Rm. For a real parameter ϵ consider
The primal feasible set P does not depend on ϵ; the dual one is D(ϵ). The optimal value functionv(ϵ)∈R∪{±∞} is the infimum of (Pϵ), its domain is E={ϵ:v(ϵ)>−∞}, and the optimal sets are P∗(ϵ)={X∈P:⟨C+ϵCˉ,X⟩=v(ϵ)} and D∗(ϵ)={(y,S)∈D(ϵ):bTy=v(ϵ)}.
Standing assumptions (p. 2): Assumption 1, the Ai are linearly independent; Assumption 2, there are X∘∈P, (y∘,S∘)∈D(0) with X∘,S∘≻0.
For ϵ∈int(E), a maximally complementary optimal solution (X∗(ϵ),y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ)) has X∗(ϵ)∈riP∗(ϵ) and (y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ))∈riD∗(ϵ) (Definition 1). A point ϵˉ∈int(E) is a transition point if every interval (ϵˉ−δ,ϵˉ+δ)∩int(E) contains an ϵ with rankX∗(ϵ)=rankX∗(ϵˉ) or rankS∗(ϵ)=rankS∗(ϵˉ) (Definition 5).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 8)
{ϵˉ∈R:ϵˉis a transition point}is finite.
The statement names no bound on the number of transition points; it asserts finiteness only.
Milestones, in the order of the paper's argument
Remark 1 (p. 2): strictly feasible primal and dual solutions exist at every ϵ∈int(E).
p. 2: E is an interval with at least two points; v is finite and concave on E and continuous on int(E).
p. 2: for ϵ∈int(E), P∗(ϵ) and D∗(ϵ) are nonempty and compact (strong duality).
(1), p. 2: on int(E), a primal–dual triple is optimal iff it is feasible and XS=0.
Appendix, p. 22: the ranks at relative-interior optimal points are maximal on the optimal sets.
(19), p. 22: int(E)=⋃θ+σ≤nS(θ,σ), where S(θ,σ) is the set of ϵ∈int(E) at which some (X,y,S)∈ri(P∗(ϵ)×D∗(ϵ)) has ranks (θ,σ).
p. 22: ϵˉ is a transition point iff ϵˉ∈bd(S(θ,σ))∩int(E) for some θ+σ≤n.
p. 23: every S(θ,σ) is a semi-algebraic subset of R.
[Basu–Pollack–Roy, Theorem 5.22], cited p. 22: a semi-algebraic subset of R has finitely many boundary points.
Significance
The result. Theorem 1 implies that int(E) is a finite union of invariancy intervals, nonlinearity intervals and transition points (p. 8). This is the structural fact behind the paper's algorithm, which follows the optimal solution along a nonlinearity interval and detects its end points, and it extends to SDO the finite-breakpoint picture of parametric linear optimization. Without finiteness, a sensitivity report would have no finite description.
Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. It has no machine-checked proof that we know of. A complete development would bring parametric conic duality into Lean (the interior point condition moving along a direction, strong duality with attainment, compactness of optimal sets), and it would connect convex analysis to semi-algebraic geometry: relative interiors, ranks of positive semidefinite matrices, and the one-dimensional case of Tarski–Seidenberg. Each of these is useful beyond this paper.
Difficulty
The obvious argument says that ranks are integers between 0 and n, so they can change only finitely often. That is false for arbitrary integer-valued functions on an interval: a rank pair could alternate on a sequence accumulating at a point, producing infinitely many transition points. Finiteness needs a structural reason why each level set S(θ,σ) is a finite union of points and intervals. That reason is semi-algebraicity. Proving it requires showing that the relative interior of the optimal set, and the parameter values where a rank is attained there, can be described by a first-order formula over the reals, and then eliminating the quantifiers. Mathlib has no Tarski–Seidenberg theorem, and the one-variable structure theorem for semi-algebraic sets (milestone 9) is itself missing.
A second difficulty is the parametric duality: strict feasibility is assumed only at ϵ=0, and propagating it to all of int(E) (Remark 1) uses a theorem of the alternative for SDO.
Formalization scope
Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ; X⪰0 is PosSemidef (which includes symmetry) and X≻0 is PosDef. Symmetry of Ai, C, Cˉ is a hypothesis of every theorem, as are Assumptions 1–2. The optimal value v is an EReal infimum over P, so v=−∞ is represented faithfully and E is not a junk set. D∗(ϵ) compares bTy with the primal value v(ϵ), as printed. The relative interior is Mathlib's intrinsicInterior. Definition 1 lets X∗(ϵ) be any maximally complementary solution. The formalization removes this choice by taking the supremum of ranks over relative-interior points, and milestone 5 shows that every such point has that rank. S(θ,σ) uses the relative interior of the product, as printed. A subset of R is semi-algebraic when its copy in R1 is a finite union of sets {p=0,g<0} with real polynomials.
Trivializing formalizations are excluded:
ranks are taken at relative-interior points only, never at arbitrary optimal points;
v is an extended-real infimum, never a real sInf (which would make an unbounded problem look finite with value 0);
transition points are defined by Definition 5 itself, not as boundary points of S(θ,σ).
The paper also states that E is closed. Under Assumptions 1–2 this is false: n=2, m=1, A1=diag(1,0), b=1, C=(0111), Cˉ=diag(0,1) gives E=(−1,∞). Milestone 2 omits closedness. The paper's proof of Theorem 1 does not use it.
Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone; a semi-algebraic toolkit in Lean (closure under Boolean operations, projections from RN+1 to R, the one-dimensional structure theorem); conic duality for standard-form SDO.
Selected references
J. D. Hauenstein, A. Mohammad-Nezhad, T. Tang, T. Terlaky, On computing the nonlinearity interval in parametric semidefinite optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:1908.10499v3
A. Mohammad-Nezhad, T. Terlaky, Parametric analysis of semidefinite optimization, Optimization 69 (2020), 187–216.
I. Adler, R. D. C. Monteiro, A geometric view of parametric linear programming, Algorithmica 8 (1992), 161–176.
D. Goldfarb, K. Scheinberg, On parametric semidefinite programming, Applied Numerical Mathematics 29 (1999), 361–377.
S. Basu, R. Pollack, M.-F. Roy, Algorithms in Real Algebraic Geometry, Springer, 2006.
R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970.
Optimal Use and Replenishment of Two Substitutable Raw Materials in a Stochastic Capacitated Make-to-Order Production System: A Use-Down-To/Balancing Production Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper
Motivation
Make-to-order manufacturers may use two substitutable raw materials to satisfy demand when production capacity and material deliveries are uncertain. A cheaper material may yield less finished product per unit, and the firm must decide how much of each material to preserve for later periods. A production rule based only on current unit costs can be wrong because using one material changes the inventory state from which future orders and production will be chosen. Chen, Duenyas, and Jasin study this coupled replenishment and production problem and characterize the form of an optimal production decision. Their result gives a state-dependent rule described by four curves, rather than requiring a separate optimization for every inventory state. This mission formalizes that production result from the 2016 working-paper version of their study.
Setting
There are T≥1 periods and two substitutable materials. A unit of finished product requires aj>0 units of type-j material, with a1<a2. Before production in period t, the available material is a vector yt=(yt1,yt2)∈R+2. Demand Dt and production capacity Rt are nonnegative random quantities with finite support. A unit of satisfied demand earns revenue et; a unit of lost demand incurs penalty σt>0. Holding costs are htj and material purchasing costs are ctj. Ordered amounts are limited by random availabilities qtj, whose finite supports may include +∞.
The production decision is the remaining inventorywt after material use. The feasible set E2(yt,Dt,Rt) contains vectors satisfying 0≤wt≤yt, the demand limit, and the capacity limit:
The objective Jt(wt) adds the current cost coefficients (ajpt+htj−ct+1j)wtj, where pt=et+σt, to the next-period value Vt+1(wt). The value functions are determined backward from VT+1(x)=cT+11x1+cT+12x2 by the production and replenishment equations (1)–(5). Thus Jt is an object computed from the model data and the dynamic program. These definitions follow §3 of the working paper.
Formalization targets
Optimal production rule
The goal is Theorem 1, pp. 15–16. There are two nonincreasing switching curvesγt1,γt2 and two balancing curvesαt,βt meeting at wˉt. Together they define the use-down-to and balancing (UB) rule of Definition 1. For every nonnegative D,R and every y∈R+2, the prescribed decision is feasible and optimal:
wt∗(y,D,R)∈w∈E2(y,D,R)argminJt(w).
The goal also includes the theorem's four minimization characterizations: wˉt minimizes Jt on the whole nonnegative orthant; each γtj minimizes a one-coordinate section; αt(x) minimizes on a1w1+a2w2=x; and βt(x) minimizes on w1+w2=x, for every x≥0. The milestones retain Lemma 3(a), Lemma 3(d), the backward-induction claim for Ht, Proposition 1 for the strictly convex perturbation, and Proposition 2 for the limiting policy.
Significance
The theorem identifies which material-use rule solves the production stage for any observed demand, capacity, and inventory. Its curves are independent of that period's realized D and R; those realizations enter the region boundaries and the rule's arguments. This structure supports the paper's later ordering-policy and computational work without replacing the original dynamic program with an unrelated one. The same formal definitions of feasible production, finite-support expectations, and coordinatewise value-function structure can be reused in other two-resource inventory models.
The working paper proves the result mathematically; the requested machine-checked work is to prove the Lean statements. The present proposal supplies definitions and theorem targets with sorry proof bodies. It does not claim that Theorem 1 or its milestones already have Lean proofs. A completed development would connect the backward dynamic program to the curve characterization and then prove that the region-specific action is optimal.
Difficulty
The replenishment-stage objective Gt is generally neither convex nor supermodular even when the subsequent value function has those properties, as the paper notes after Lemma 3. Consequently, taking a minimum in the replenishment recursion does not preserve the desired shape by an immediate standard argument. At the production stage, demand and capacity impose different coupled linear constraints on the two materials. Minimizing each material coordinate separately therefore does not produce a feasible or optimal decision in general. The source's region boundaries must account for which of these constraints binds and for their changes at D=a1R and D=a2R.
Formalization scope
Lean uses R×R with componentwise order for two-material vectors. Each random quantity is a finite support with nonnegative real weights summing to one; expectations are finite sums. The two availability laws are multiplied as independent laws at each period, and +∞ availability is represented by WithTop ℝ. The joint law of (Dt,Rt) need not factor. The dynamic program has periods 1,…,T, and the terminal value is set at T+1. Its minima are defined as infima of feasible objective images; attainment is content of the results, not part of the definitions. Lower-growth claims use eventual real inequalities for every positive error, with the other inventory coordinate fixed and nonnegative.
The paper describes revenues and costs as monetary amounts and uses sign conditions in its proof of Lemma 3. The Lean standing predicate makes explicit et,htj,ctj≥0, ctj+htj>0, aj>0, and T>0, in addition to the paper's σt>0 and a1<a2. These assumptions are disclosed because without them the stated coercivity and attainment claims may fail. The objective in the goal is precisely Jt produced by the full backward recursion; allowing an arbitrary objective with assumed structural properties would omit the dynamic-programming content.
Definition 1 calls its six regions a partition. At D≤a1R, two printed regions can overlap; a concrete Lean check is included locally. The formal policy follows the page's displayed order when more than one region matches. Region coverage is asserted for all nonnegative D,R, and pairwise disjointness is asserted only when a1R<D. The first-match convention and corrected partition claim are documented with the counterexample for review. The piecewise formulas for Kj, Lj, and γˉj retain their source inequalities. Contributions establishing feasibility, curve existence, uniqueness for the perturbed problem, and the induction step are all useful to the mission.
Selected references
Q. Chen, I. Duenyas, and S. Jasin, Optimal Use and Replenishment of Two Substitutable Raw Materials in a Nonstationary Capacitated Make-to-Order Production System, SSRN working paper 2801786, version of 2016-06-28. SSRN.
Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data: Spectrally Initialized Vanilla Gradient Descent Recovers the Tensor Factors at a Linear Rate to Near-Optimal ℓ2 and ℓ2,∞ AccuracyResearch Paper
Motivation
A partially observed array with three indices appears when data record relationships among triples of objects. If its entries have a low-rank structure, one can hope to recover the full array from far fewer than d3 measurements. Cai, Li, Poor and Chen study this problem when the measurements are noisy and only a random subset of entries is seen. Their result gives a statistical error bound for a concrete two-stage method: spectral initialization followed by ordinary gradient descent on a nonconvex loss. It is a known theorem, proved in the pinned preprint, rather than an open conjecture.
Setting
The unknown symmetric order-three tensor is T⋆∈Rd×d×d. It has a CP decompositionT⋆=∑s=1r(us⋆)⊗3, where the nonzero columns us⋆ form U⋆∈Rd×r. Each unordered triple of coordinates is sampled independently with probability p; its six permutations share one sampling decision. On a sampled triple the observation is Tijk⋆+Eijk, with symmetric, centered, independent sub-Gaussian noise of variance at most σ2. The observed tensor T vanishes outside the sampled set Ω.
For a candidate factor matrix U=[u1,…,ur], the objective is
f(U)=6p1PΩ(s=1∑rus⊗3−T)F2.
Algorithm 2 obtains a leading r-dimensional eigenspace from an off-diagonal Gram matrix of the mode-one unfolding of p−1T. Algorithm 3 uses Gaussian restarts, leading singular vectors, and greedy pruning to turn that subspace into a factor matrix U0. Algorithm 1 then applies the gradient step to f. Eigenvalue ties, leading singular-vector choices, and pruning ties can produce several admissible executions; the result concerns every execution.
Incoherenceμ measures how evenly the tensor and factors spread across coordinates and how nearly orthogonal distinct factors are. The condition numberκ is the ratio of the largest to smallest factor norm. Write λmin⋆=mins∥us⋆∥23 and λmax⋆=maxs∥us⋆∥23. Distances distF, dist∞, and dist2,∞ minimize their respective matrix norms over permutations of the r columns.
Formalization targets
The goal is Theorem 2.4, in the bounded-rank, bounded-incoherence, bounded-condition-number regime. Under its printed sampling, noise, restart, threshold and step-size conditions, for every 0≤t≤d5 it asserts, with probability at least 1−δ,
The rate is fixed to ρ=1−λmin⋆,4/3η/5, consistent with the paper's local-convergence lemmas. Milestones formalize the gradient identity (36), local Hessian bounds (Lemma 5.1), spectral-subspace recovery (Lemma 5.7), factor retrieval (Theorem 5.9), and the paper's general-parameter recovery theorem (Theorem 2.8). The latter makes the dependence on μ and r explicit.
Significance
The inequalities give two guarantees at once: geometric reduction of initialization error and an explicit noise floor. The 2,∞ bound controls the error in each coordinate row, which a Frobenius estimate alone does not supply. Together with the tensor-entry corollaries in the paper, they explain the accuracy of this practical nonconvex method under random subsampling. The authors also specify how the sample probability, noise level, rank and incoherence interact, so the result can be compared to other tensor-completion methods.
This mission asks for a machine-checked version of the known result. Its published ψ₂ norm definition is reused; the paper-specific tensor model, spectral initialization relations, loss and gradient iteration are new. The theorem statements compile with sorry, so none of their proofs is claimed as machine checked here. Proofs of the listed milestones, the main theorem, and faithful auxiliary concentration results are welcome; the paper's numerical experiments are outside this formalization.
Difficulty
The gradient loss is nonconvex, so global convexity cannot justify the iteration bound. The local Hessian estimate applies only near U⋆ in both Frobenius and rowwise norm. A Frobenius estimate alone cannot establish the rowwise condition at every iteration. The spectral initializer must also select individual factors from a subspace despite nearly tied eigenvalues and noisy tensor contractions. These are the points where a direct appeal to standard smooth-gradient-descent theory stops short of the stated result.
Formalization scope
Coordinates are Fin d and Fin r, with zero-based indexing; the PDF uses one-based indices. All logarithms are natural. Tensor and matrix norms are explicit finite-coordinate Euclidean norms. Minima over permutations range over all permutations of Fin r, and maxima in the incoherence parameters range over the indices specified by Definition 2.1. Sampling is on sorted triples, then extended by symmetry. The probability model is a single probability space carrying the sampling indicators, noise variables and Gaussian restarts, jointly independent; the paper leaves some cross-family independence implicit. Noise has mean zero, variance at most σ2, and ψ₂ norm at most σ using the published extended-nonnegative norm. The last bound makes the paper's sub-Gaussian scale explicit.
The statements use d≥d0≥2, r≥1, nonzero true factor columns, 0<p≤1, and σ≥0. Theorems 2.8 and 5.9 use r≥2 and round their real-valued restart count up to a natural number; this handles the boundary where logr=0. Theorem 2.4 places its claimed absolute error constants before the rank and incoherence bounds and all instance data. Probability is expressed as the outer measure of the bad event, since admissible-execution predicates quantify over choices and need not be measurable. Each good event explicitly asserts that an admissible execution exists before requiring the bounds for every execution; otherwise a failed pruning run would make a universal claim vacuous.
The remaining reusable infrastructure includes concentration for symmetric sampled tensors, finite-dimensional spectral perturbation with ties, and derivative estimates for the cubic factor map. The paper's leave-one-out iteration lemmas and their auxiliary estimators are not included in this initial milestone list; they remain natural contributions toward the full proof.
Selected references
C. Cai, G. Li, H. V. Poor and Y. Chen, Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data, arXiv:1911.04436v2, 2021; published in Operations Research 70(2), 2022. Preprint.
R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Definition 2.5.6 for the ψ₂ norm. Publisher DOI.
Equipartition of a Segment: Every Continuous Function on Subsegments of [0, 1] Vanishing on Degenerate Segments Takes Equal Values on Some Partition of [0, 1] into m SegmentsResearch Paper
Motivation
In fair division, a value may be assigned to each interval that a cut produces. If the value is continuous in the interval's endpoints, an equal-value partition is a natural target. Some valuations are nonnegative and additive, but a difference of competing measures or a signed utility need have neither property. Avvakumov and Karasev establish equal-value partitions even when the value changes sign and is not additive, provided it vanishes on degenerate intervals. Their result is used by Bogomolnaia and Moulin in work on guarantees for fair division. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 1–2; Bogomolnaia and Moulin.
The paper identifies earlier special cases: a nonnegative valuation follows from the Knaster–Kuratowski–Mazurkiewicz theorem; prime-power numbers of parts with a valuation of varying sign were known through degree-theoretic results; additive valuations admit an elementary argument. The remaining case permits a sign-changing, nonadditive valuation and an arbitrary positive number of parts. The authors distinguish this from an envy-free division problem with separate valuations for several players, which they state remains open outside prime-power cases. Avvakumov and Karasev, p. 2; Avvakumov and Karasev, Envy-free division using mapping degree; Meunier and Zerbib.
Setting
Write I for the set of all subsegments I=[a,b] of [0,1] with 0≤a≤b≤1. An interval may be degenerate, meaning a=b. A real-valued function f on I is continuous when its value varies continuously with the two endpoints. The required boundary condition is f([a,a])=0 for every a∈[0,1]. No sign, monotonicity, or additivity condition is imposed. A partition into m parts is a sequence 0=x0≤x1≤⋯≤xm=1, so its parts [xj−1,xj] may also be degenerate. Avvakumov and Karasev, Theorem 1.1, pp. 1–2.
The intermediate setting is a nice multivalued function. Its graph is a compact subset Z of I×(−1,1). The graph separates the bottom I×{−1} from the top I×{1} inside the cylinder C=I×[−1,1]: those two sides lie in different connected components of C∖Z. A representation of a nice graph is a continuous real function φ on C that is negative on the bottom, positive on the top, and whose zero set is the graph. The paper passes between graphs and representations in Lemma 2.2. Avvakumov and Karasev, Definition 2.1 and Lemma 2.2, p. 2.
For a prime p, a segment I=[a,b], and a value y, a zero partition is a sequence a=x0≤⋯≤xp=b such that φ([xj−1,xj],y)=0 for each j=1,…,p. The set Zp(φ) contains exactly those pairs (I,y) that admit a zero partition. This is the projection to the cylinder of the paper's simultaneous-solution set S for labeled partitions. Avvakumov and Karasev, equation (4.1) and Claim 4.4, pp. 7–9.
Formalization targets
The goal is Theorem 1.1: for every positive integer m and every continuous f satisfying the degenerate-interval condition, there are possibly repeated cut points with a common value:
0=x0≤x1≤⋯≤xm=1,f([x0,x1])=⋯=f([xm−1,xm]).
The theorem is already posed as the Open platform statement FairGuarantees.DivideChoose.theorem_of_4; this mission references that exact statement as its goal. It supplies the paper's supporting statements, including Lemma 2.2 on graph representations, Claim 4.4 on separation by projected zero partitions, and the prime-step Lemma 2.3. The latter asserts that, when φ([a,a],y)=y, there is a represented nice graph with the same degenerate identity whose zeros each yield a zero partition for φ. The milestone list includes the fixed-segment and continuous-family statements used to characterize Zp(φ), and equation (4.2) describing its degenerate boundary. Avvakumov and Karasev, Lemmas 2.2–2.3, pp. 2–3; Claims 4.3–4.4 and equation (4.2), pp. 8–9.
Significance
The theorem guarantees equal values for any positive number of consecutive parts under only endpoint continuity and the zero-on-degenerates condition. It covers valuations for which nonnegative or additive special-case results give no conclusion. It also provides the theorem invoked in the fair-guarantee application cited by the authors. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 1–2; Bogomolnaia and Moulin.
The mathematical result was proved in the paper; the platform's theorem statement remains Open and lacks a machine-checked proof there. Formalizing the paper's intermediate claims makes its topological assumptions and its treatment of degenerate parts explicit. The definitions of a separating graph, its representation, and zero partitions can also be reused for related partition problems. The present mission states the paper's prime-step targets, leaving the proofs and the underlying equivariant topology as work for solvers.
Difficulty
For a fixed signed valuation, continuity alone does not select one common value that works across every piece of an arbitrary partition. The nonnegative case has a simplex-covering argument, but that argument does not directly control values of both signs. In the paper's general case, the difficult claim is that the projected simultaneous-zero set separates an entire cylinder, even as the segment varies. Its source proof requires a mod-p statement for a space of labeled partitions and control of the resulting solution set. A further boundary issue arises on degenerate segments: a representation of the projected graph must satisfy ψ([a,a],y)=y, not merely have the right zeros. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 2, 7–10.
Formalization scope
Lean represents I=[a,b] by the endpoint pair (a,b) with 0≤a≤b≤1. The cylinder uses the closed value range [−1,1]; a nice graph lies in its open interior (−1,1). Functions are total Lean functions, but only their values on this cylinder enter the definitions and results. Continuity is required on the cylinder. Separation uses connected components of its complement, as in Definition 2.1, and explicitly requires the bottom and top to avoid the graph. This prevents a graph containing a boundary side from satisfying separation vacuously.
Every prime-step claim assumes p prime, the representation's strict boundary signs, and the degenerate identity. Zero partitions have exactly p consecutive parts whose endpoints are pinned to the original segment; repeated cuts are allowed. The goal reference likewise permits degenerate parts and assumes m≥1. The projected set is defined through existence of an ordinary ordered partition, independent of how the paper labels partitions in its configuration space. The needed existing Lean notions include ContinuousOn, IsCompact, connectedComponentIn, finite index types, and Nat.Prime. A complete proof development also needs results about the paper's labeled-partition complex, equivariant cycles and transverse maps. Contributions establishing that reusable topology, as well as proofs of the stated milestones, are within scope. Avvakumov and Karasev, §§2–4.
Selected references
Sergey Avvakumov and Roman Karasev, Equipartition of a Segment, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023. arXiv:2009.09862v4.
Anna Bogomolnaia and Hervé Moulin, Guarantees in Fair Division: General or Monotone Preferences, 2019. arXiv:1911.10009v3.
Sergey Avvakumov and Roman Karasev, Envy-Free Division Using Mapping Degree, Mathematika 67, 2021. arXiv:1907.11183.
Frédéric Meunier and Shira Zerbib, Envy-Free Cake Division Without Assuming the Players Prefer Nonempty Pieces, Israel Journal of Mathematics 234, 2019. arXiv:1804.00449.
A Dynamic Contagion Risk Model with Recovery Features: Fluid Limit for the Final Fraction of Failed Nodes in Threshold Contagion with Growth on the Configuration ModelResearch Paper
Motivation
Financial networks, supply chains and contact networks share a failure mode: a node fails when enough of its counterparties have failed, and its failure in turn weakens its own counterparties. Threshold contagion on random graphs is the standard mathematical model of this. Amini, Cont and Minca (Resilience to contagion in financial networks, Mathematical Finance 2016) proved that on a configuration-model network the final fraction of failed nodes concentrates, as the network grows, around an explicit value determined by the smallest fixed point of a one-dimensional map.
In that model thresholds are fixed. In practice institutions recover while a crisis unfolds: capital is raised, earnings accrue, and a node that survives long enough can absorb more losses than at the start. Amini, Minca and Sulem (A Dynamic Contagion Risk Model with Recovery Features, Mathematics of Operations Research 2022; the mission follows the authors' preprint of February 2021) add this recovery feature: every surviving node's threshold grows linearly in calendar time, at a rate proportional to its connectivity. The main result, Theorem 5, identifies the scaling limit of the cascade with growth. It is the basis of the paper's analysis of equilibrium connectivity choice (§3), where agents trade off the rewards of links against contagion risk.
Setting
A network has n nodes. Node i has a connectivityλi∈N (in-degree and out-degree both equal λi) and an integer initial thresholdθi∈N. The empirical type distribution is μλ,θ(n)=#{i:θi=θ,λi=λ}/n and the mean connectivity is λˉ(n)=∑λ,θλμλ,θ(n). Two regularity conditions are assumed: (C1) μλ,θ(n)→μλ,θ for a probability distribution μ on N2; (C2) λˉ(n)→λˉ=∑λμλ,θ∈(0,∞).
Each node owns λi out-going and λi in-coming half-edges. The directed configuration model matches out-half-edges to in-half-edges by a uniformly random bijection; self-loops and multiple links are allowed.
The cascade: at time 0 the nodes with θi=0 fail. Interactions happen at times Tk(n) whose gaps are i.i.d. exponential with rate n. At each interaction one unrevealed out-link of a failed node, chosen uniformly, is revealed; its counterparty j gains one failed link and fails if its count of failed links reaches its current threshold θj+αλjTk(n)/λˉ(n), where 0<α<1 is the growth rate. Only surviving nodes grow. The cascade stops at kstop(n), when no unrevealed failed link remains; ∣Df(n)∣ is the number of failed nodes and Sλ,θ(n)(kstop(n)) the number of survivors of type (λ,θ).
The limit objects: Pλ,θ,ℓ(π) is the probability that the order statistics of ℓ i.i.d. uniform variables on [0,π] satisfy U(u)>(u−θ)/(αλ) for u=θ+1,…,ℓ; Bλ,0α=1 and, for θ≥1,
Jα(π)=∑λ,θλμλ,θBλ,θα(π)/λˉ; and the relaxed fixed pointπ∗=min{π∈[0,1]:Jα(π)≤π}.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 5 (corrected)
With L=∑λ,θμλ,θBλ,θα(π∗): for every ε>0, with high probability ∣Df(n)∣/n≥L−ε. (i) If π∗=1 and μ0,θ=0 for θ≥1, then ∣Df(n)∣/n→1 in probability. (ii) If π∗<1 is a stable fixed point (Jα(π)<π just to the right of π∗), then
Lemma 16: a recursion in ℓ for Pλ,θ,ℓ(t), for 0<α<1 and θ<ℓ≤λ, valid for t≥t^λ,θ,ℓ=(ℓ−θ)λˉ/(αλ).
Lemma 15: for 0<α<1 and 0<θ≤λ, the piecewise linear system (DE) for the rescaled numbers of surviving nodes with ℓ failed links has a unique continuous solution on [0,λˉ), in closed form.
(24)–(25): the limiting failed fraction of a class is μλ,θBλ,θα(t/λˉ), and the limiting number of unrevealed failed links is λˉ(Jα(t/λˉ)−t/λˉ).
(27)–(28): for k=γλˉ(n)n+o(n), Tk(n)→γλˉ in probability.
Remark 6: the minimum defining π∗ is attained.
Significance
Theorem 5 gives the final size of a cascade with recovery as an explicit function of the type distribution and the growth rate. The paper uses it to define each agent's expected reward as a function of its connectivity and to study the equilibrium of the resulting connectivity game (§3). Without the theorem, the equilibrium analysis would rest on the heuristic of §2.3 alone.
On the formal side, the platform has no random graph model of configuration type, no network contagion process and no fluid limit of a random cascade. This mission introduces all three. The result is proved on paper (by Wormald's differential-equation method); none of it is machine-checked. The work is to formalize the proof, and the milestones are self-contained pieces of it: an order-statistic identity, an explicit ODE solution, an algebraic identification of the limit, a concentration bound for sums of exponentials, and a fixed-point existence result.
Difficulty
The obvious approach is to view the cascade as a Markov chain in the counts of surviving nodes by type and number of failed links, and to apply Wormald's theorem directly. Two things break. First, with growth a node's survival depends on the whole history of its failed-link count, not on its current value, so the state space grows with time: new states become relevant at each growth time t^λ,θ,ℓ, and the fluid limit has to be established inductively on successive time intervals. Second, the cascade stops at a random time, near the first zero of the limiting number of unrevealed failed links. Showing that the stopping time concentrates requires the stability condition on π∗ and a truncation of the type distribution in the degree, since μ may have infinite support. The fixed point need not be a crossing point of a smooth map, so the identification of the stopping time is delicate even when the drift is known.
Formalization scope
Network. Half-edges of node i are pairs (i,a) with a<λi; the matching is a uniformly random permutation of the half-edges. Each n has its own probability space: the matching, m=nλˉ(n) i.i.d. Exp(n) gaps, and m i.i.d. uniform variables on [0,1) that choose the revealed link (uniform among the available ones given the past). The probability of an event averages over permutations the product law of gaps and choices. "With high probability" and "in probability" are stated with explicit ε and limits of these probabilities.
Cascade. Computed step by step from the randomness and run for m steps; ∣Df(n)∣ and Sλ,θ(n)(kstop) are read off the final state. A node fails when its failed links reach (not exceed) its threshold, as in every formula of the paper. Initially failed nodes are those with θi=0.
Limit objects. Order statistics are encoded by counting (U(u)>s iff fewer than u variables are ≤s), and probabilities as Lebesgue measures of subsets of [0,π]ℓ. Sums over types are tsums with summability hypotheses; μ is nonnegative with total mass 1.
Corrections, all labelled. (a) Bλ,0α:=1; the printed formula gives a value below 1 for π>0, contradicting the paper's p. 9, and makes the theorem false. (b) Part (i) assumes no isolated nodes with a positive threshold. (c) Lemma 16 assumes t≥t^λ,θ,ℓ. (d) Lemma 15 is stated for 0<θ≤λ, with uniqueness among continuous solutions, and reads the printed λˉ−u as λˉ−t. (e) (24) ends in μλ,θBλ,θα(t/λˉ), not μλ,θ(1−Bλ,θα(t/λˉ)). "Stable fixed point" means Jα(π)<π on some interval (π∗,π∗+η).
No trivialization.∣Df(n)∣ and Sλ,θ(n) are computed from the random matching, the gaps and the revelation order, never from Bα or Jα; π∗ is defined from μ and α, not taken as a parameter.
Not included. Theorem 3 (the case α=0, cited from earlier work), the equilibrium results of §3, Wormald's theorem (Lemma 17, an external result), the in/out-degree extension (Theorem 18) and the displays (32)–(41) of the inductive argument.
Infrastructure. A complete proof needs Wormald's differential-equation method for Markov chains with bounded increments, concentration of the configuration model, and the elementary facts in the milestones. A general Wormald theorem and the configuration model are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either, as separate theorems, are welcome.
Selected references
H. Amini, A. Minca, A. Sulem, A dynamic contagion risk model with recovery features, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022 (preprint February 2021). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1174
H. Amini, R. Cont, A. Minca, Resilience to contagion in financial networks, Mathematical Finance, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12051
B. Bollobás, A probabilistic proof of an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled regular graphs, European Journal of Combinatorics, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-6698(80)80030-8
Online Learning over a Finite Action Set with Limited Switching: An Algorithm for Prediction From Experts Whose Regret and Number of Switches Are Both O(√(T log n log(1/δ))) with Probability 1 − δResearch Paper
Motivation
In prediction from experts (PFE), an online learner chooses one of n actions in each of T rounds, and an adversary assigns each action a loss in [0,1]. Performance is measured by regret, the learner's total loss minus that of the best single action in hindsight. In many applications changing the action is itself costly: re-routing traffic, re-balancing a portfolio, re-deploying a model. The number of switches, rounds in which the action changes, is then a second resource to keep small.
It has long been known that both quantities can be kept at O(Tlogn)in expectation. Kalai and Vempala's multiplicative Follow the Perturbed Leader (Kalai–Vempala 2005) and Devroye, Lugosi and Neu's random-walk perturbation (Devroye et al. 2015) both achieve this. Devroye et al. asked for guarantees that hold with high probability. A bound in expectation says little about a single run: the switch count of these algorithms can have heavy upper tails. Altschuler and Talwar (arXiv:1803.01548, COLT 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 2021) gave the first algorithms whose regret and switches are both O(Tlognlog(1/δ)) with probability 1−δ. They used this to characterise the optimal regret under a hard switching budget, both for PFE and for multi-armed bandits.
Setting
A loss sequence is (ℓt)t≥1 with ℓt:[n]→[0,1]. The adversary is oblivious: it fixes the whole sequence before the game, independently of the learner's randomness. A randomized online algorithmA draws internal randomness ω from a probability space (Ω,μ). At round t it plays an action it∈[n] that is a function of ω and of the past losses ℓ1,…,ℓt−1 only. This is full-information feedback: after round t the whole vector ℓt is revealed. Then
Follow the Perturbed Leader (FPL) with perturbations Pt(i) plays at round t the minimiser of ∑s=0t−1(ℓs(i)+Ps+1(i)), with ℓ0:=0. FPLε∗ perturbs only once, with P1(i)=−R(i)/ε, where R(1),…,R(n) are i.i.d. standard exponential.
Framework 1 turns an algorithm A into a batched algorithm B. B runs a copy of A with fresh randomness. The copy sees only the losses since its epoch began. The epoch ends just before the copy would exceed S′ switches, and a new copy starts there. E is the number of epochs used in T rounds. BFPLδ∗ is Framework 1 applied to FPLε∗ with
N=⌈log(2/δ)⌉,ε=21Nlogn/T,S′=135Tlogn/N.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 8)
There is an absolute constant C>0 such that for all T,n≥1 and δ∈(0,21) some randomized online algorithm A satisfies, for every oblivious loss sequence,
The algorithm may depend on T, n and δ, as on the page, but not on the losses. The constant is left unspecified, so a sharper constant would not change the goal.
Lemma 3 (p. 10): if E[Switchesτ0(A)]≤cAτ0 with τ0=min(T,⌈8T/N⌉), then Framework 1 with S′=23cAT/N has P(E>N)≤e−N and P(SwitchesT>N(S′+1))≤e−N.
Corollary 6 for BFPL∗ (p. 14): RegretT≤SwitchesT+E+∑e<EmaxiRe(i)/ε.
Lemma 18 (p. 28): E[etX]≤nt/(1−t) for the maximum X of n standard exponentials.
Lemma 9 (p. 14): P(∑e=1NmaxiRe(i)>6Nlogn)≤e−N for N,n≥2.
Theorem 8 (p. 13): BFPLδ∗ itself satisfies the bound of Theorem 1 for n≥2.
Significance
The result separates two notions of "optimal". Expected-value bounds on switching do not control a single run, and the paper shows (Appendix B) that naive restarting does not concentrate. Theorem 1 is the black box behind the paper's later results: the Θ~ characterisation of minimax regret under a switching budget S, with a phase transition at S≈Tlogn, and the switching-cost corollary obtained by mini-batching. Framework 1 is generic: any algorithm with an expected switching bound of order τ gains a high-probability one.
The paper result is proved, but none of it has been machine-checked. A formalization yields a verified online-learning protocol with oblivious adversaries, a restart framework with fresh randomness, and verified tail bounds for maxima of exponentials. Formalizing it also repairs four printed slips, listed under Formalization scope.
Difficulty
The obvious approach runs A about log(1/δ) times in fixed-length blocks and applies Markov's inequality in each. It fails: a single block can use far too many switches with probability that is not small enough. Framework 1 therefore uses epochs of random length, ended by the switch budget. The epoch lengths are then dependent, and the final epoch is truncated at T. The concentration argument has to handle both. On the regret side, Lemma 5 is pointwise, but summing it over random epochs and then controlling the sum of perturbation maxima needs a sub-exponential tail bound for maxima of exponentials.
Formalization scope
Rounds are 1-based, and losses are ℓ:N→Finn→R with values in [0,1]. An online algorithm has type Ω→(t:N)→(Fin(t−1)→Finn→R)→Finn: at round t it sees only ω and ℓ1,…,ℓt−1. The adversary is a deterministic loss sequence, quantified after the algorithm, which is the page's own reduction (p. 5). High-probability statements bound the outer measure of the failure event by δ. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of natural-valued switch counts. The O(⋅) of Theorems 1 and 8 is an absolute constant C>0 chosen before T, n and δ. Argmins break ties towards the lowest index. Framework 1 takes randomness ω:N→Ω under the infinite product measure, one coordinate per epoch.
Three formalizations of the goal would be trivial, and all are excluded. An algorithm that could see ℓt or the future would simply play the best action in hindsight. A constant C chosen after T could be C=T. A loss sequence chosen before the algorithm would let the algorithm depend on it.
The printed slips and how they are handled:
FPL* sign. The paper perturbs by +R/ε. With one-sided exponentials that variant violates Lemma 7, so the perturbation is −R/ε.
Lemma 5 and Corollary 6. These need M(SwitchesT+1) and +E; the printed forms fail at T=1.
Lemma 3. It takes an integer N≥2 with δ/2=e−N, it assumes the switching hypothesis only at the horizon the proof uses, and it counts one boundary switch per epoch.
BFPLδ∗. It uses N=⌈log(2/δ)⌉.
Measurability. Lemma 3 assumes that A's actions are measurable in ω.
The development needs:
product and infinite-product measures of exponential laws (in Mathlib);
Markov's inequality and Azuma–Hoeffding for submartingales with bounded differences;
the memoryless property of the exponential law;
Chernoff bounds.
The online-learning layer (protocol, regret, switches, FPL, the restart framework) is reusable for other switching-cost results in the paper and elsewhere. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative routes to Theorem 1, such as the random-walk perturbation of §2.5.
Selected references
J. M. Altschuler and K. Talwar, Online learning over a finite action set with limited switching, COLT 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(1), 2021. arXiv:1803.01548v2
A. Kalai and S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for online decision problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71(3), 2005. doi:10.1016/j.jcss.2004.10.016
L. Devroye, G. Lugosi and G. Neu, Random-walk perturbations for online combinatorial optimization, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 61(7):4099–4106, 2015. doi:10.1109/TIT.2015.2428253
N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi, Prediction, Learning, and Games, Cambridge University Press, 2006. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511546921
Learning Markov Models Via Low-Rank Optimization: KL Error Bound for the Rank-Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimator of a Low-Rank Markov ChainResearch Paper
Motivation
Many systems studied in operations research and reinforcement learning are modelled as finite Markov chains with a large number of states p: the stops of a taxi in a city, a random walk on a network, the conformations of a molecule. Estimating the p×p transition matrix from one observed trajectory needs, in general, a trajectory long compared with the p2 unknown entries. In many such systems the transition matrix has, at least approximately, a small rankr≪p: the observed chain is driven by a low-dimensional latent process, as in state aggregation, where P(st+1∣st)=∑zP(zt=z∣st)P(st+1∣zt=z) (Zhu, Li, Wang & Zhang, arXiv:1907.00113, §1.1). Zhu, Li, Wang and Zhang show that a low-rank transition matrix can be estimated from a trajectory whose length is proportional to p (up to logarithmic factors), and they give two maximum-likelihood estimators with explicit rates. This mission formalizes the rate of the second, rank-constrained, estimator in Kullback–Leibler divergence.
Setting
Let X0,X1,…,Xn be a Markov chain on the states [p]={s1,…,sp} with transition matrixP (Pij≥0, ∑jPij=1, Pij=P(X1=sj∣X0=si)) and stationary distributionπ (π⊤P=π⊤). The chain is primitive (some power of P has all entries positive), and X0 is drawn from π. Write πmin=minjπj and πmax=maxjπj.
The right spectral gap is 1−ρ+, where, with ⟨h1,h2⟩π=∑jh1jh2jπj and the adjoint P∗=Diag(π)−1P⊤Diag(π),
ρ+=⟨h,1⟩π=0,⟨h,h⟩π=1sup21⟨(P+P∗)h,h⟩π.
The KL divergence of a transition matrix Q from P is DKL(P,Q)=∑i,jπiPijlog(Pij/Qij)1{Pij=0}. From the trajectory, nij counts the transitions si→sj, and the averaged negative log-likelihood is ℓn(Q)=−n1∑i,jnijlogQij. The empirical KL divergence is DKL(P,Q)=ℓn(Q)−ℓn(P).
Assumption 1 of the paper: rank(P)=r, and Pjk∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p] for constants α,β>0. The (α/p)-minoration (Remark 2) removes the 0: α/p≤Pjk≤β/p for all j,k. The rank-constrained MLE (5) is any
In Lean these objects are IsStochastic, IsStationary, IsPrimitive, piMin, piMax, trajProb, rhoPlus, klDiv, negLogLik, empKL, Assumption1, Minorated, RankFeasible and IsRankMLE in the namespace LowRankMarkov.RankMLE.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2, KL display (p. 10)
There are universal constants C1,C2>0 such that, for p≥2, under minoration with rankP=r and nπmax(1−ρ+)>max(20logp,logn), every rank-constrained MLE satisfies, for all ξ>0,
The constants are not fixed numerically, so a sharper analysis does not invalidate the goal.
Milestones
Lemma EC.1, both forms: DKL(u,v)≥2β2pα∥u−v∥22 for distributions with uj∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p], vj∈[α/p,β/p], and its matrix form ∥P−Q∥F2≤απminp2β2DKL(P,Q).
The rank remark (p. 14): rank(Pr−P)≤2r and ∥Pr−P∥∗≤(2r)1/2∥Pr−P∥F.
(EC.14): on the shell Q∈C(η), l≥1 and 2l−1η≤DKL(P,Q)≤2lη, ∥Q−P∥∗≤2β(2lηr/(pαπmin))1/2.
(EC.15), (EC.17): Bernstein-type tails p−(ξ−1) for Wn(1)=maxj∑i≤nPXi−1,j and Wn(2)=maxj∑i≤n1{Xi−1=sj}.
Lemma 3: with probability at least 1−C2exp(−ηπmaxrplogp/πmin), ∣DKL(P,Q)−DKL(P,Q)∣≤21DKL(P,Q)+C1πmaxβ2rplogp/(πminα3n) for every Q∈C with DKL(P,Q)≥η.
(EC.3): DKL(P,Pr)≤0. Together with DKL(P,Pr)=L(Pr)−L(P) it gives (EC.4), DKL(P,Pr)≤DKL(P,Pr)−DKL(P,Pr).
Significance
The bound says that, with high probability, the KL error of Pr is of order rplogp/n up to the factors πmax/πmin and β2/α3, plus a term independent of n controlled by ξ. A trajectory of length of order rplogp, rather than p2, therefore suffices: the low rank is what makes the estimation problem sample-efficient. Lemma EC.1 converts the KL bound into a Frobenius-norm bound, and Lemma 3 is a uniform law for the empirical KL process of a dependent sequence over the paper’s cone class.
The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission asks for a formal proof of the KL display. Two points need care beyond transcription: the printed hypotheses do not suffice (see Formalization scope), and the paper's proof of Lemma 3 symmetrizes the dependent summands as if they were independent (EC.8), so a formal proof must supply a valid argument for that step.
Difficulty
Comparing ℓn(Pr) with ℓn(P) is immediate; the difficulty is to control DKL−DKL uniformly over a non-convex set of matrices, from one dependent trajectory. A union bound over a net of the feasible set loses polynomial factors in p, and i.i.d. empirical-process tools do not apply directly to a Markov chain. The printed Lemma 3 covers the cone class C, while the appendix proof restricts its shells to rank-r matrices. This leaves a gap for matrices in C of higher rank and for the claimed application to Pr when r>16. The paper combines a tail inequality for suprema of empirical processes of Markov chains (Adamczak 2008), a contraction step, the matrix Freedman inequality (Tropp 2011) for a matrix martingale, and a Bernstein inequality for Markov chains with a spectral gap (Jiang, Fan & Sun 2018) for the quadratic variations Wn(1),Wn(2). None of these is in Mathlib.
Formalization scope
States are Fin p, matrices Matrix (Fin p) (Fin p) ℝ, logarithms natural. A trajectory x=(X0,…,Xn) makes n transitions, and its probability is π(x0)∏k<nPxkxk+1; probabilities of events are finite sums, so no measure theory is needed. ρ+ is a real sSup; "ρ+<1" is not built into its definition. The nuclear and Frobenius norms come from the published definition CaiCandesShen.Convergence.Basic.
Hypotheses fixed relative to the page:
Minoration instead of Assumption 1(ii), in the goal and (EC.3). The printed Theorem 2 allows Pjk=0, and it is false then. For even p, let rows 1,…,p/2 of P equal 2/p on columns p/2+1,…,p and 0 elsewhere, and rows p/2+1,…,p equal 1/p. Then rankP=2, α=1, β=2, ρ+=0, π puts mass 1/3 on the first half and πmax/πmin=2. Every feasible Q has Qij≥1/p, so on each of the first p/2 rows Q puts mass at most 1/2 on the support of P, and DKL(P,Q)≥31log2. With ξ=0.9plogp the threshold is below 31log2 for all large n, so the probability is 1, while C2e−ξ<1 for large p. The broken step is (EC.3), which needs P feasible for (5); minoration with rankP=r makes it feasible. Lemma EC.1, (EC.14), (EC.15), (EC.17) and Lemma 3 keep the printed Assumption 1.
X0∼π, stated in Theorem 1 and used by the proof of Theorem 2 through Lemma 3.
Ergodic is read as primitive; πi>0 is stated (it is implied); p≥2 keeps logp>0 in denominators.
Lemma 3's set is the printed C(η), whose cone is ∥Q−P∥∗≤4×21/2∥Q−P∥F and which has no rank constraint. The appendix proof uses rank-restricted shells; for r>16 the rank remark alone does not place Pr in C. This is a proof gap, while the formal statement retains the page's quantification.
Lemma EC.1's matrix form and (EC.14) include the printed cone condition. (EC.14) is stated pointwise for members of Cl.
The statements rule out trivializing readings: C1,C2 are quantified before all data; the goal holds for every selection of minimizers, not for one fixed estimator; p≥2 and π>0 exclude the junk values x/0=0 and log1=0 that would collapse the thresholds; a sorry-free check shows the goal's hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (p=2, uniform P, n=28).
Not posed: Theorem 1 (nuclear-norm MLE), the Frobenius display of Theorem 2 (Lemma EC.1 turns the KL threshold into twice the printed Frobenius threshold, so the paper's one-line derivation gives C2e−ξ/2), Theorem 3 (lower bound), and the DC-programming results of §4. Useful reusable contributions: a Bernstein inequality for finite Markov chains with a spectral gap, the matrix Freedman inequality, and the reverse-Pinsker bound of Lemma EC.1.
Selected references
Z. Zhu, X. Li, M. Wang, A. R. Zhang, Learning Markov models via low-rank optimization, Operations Research, 2022; preprint arXiv:1907.00113v2, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.00113
B. Jiang, J. Fan, Q. Sun, Bernstein's inequality for general Markov chains, arXiv:1805.10721, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10721
J. A. Tropp, Freedman's inequality for matrix martingales, Electronic Communications in Probability 16:262–270, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.3039
R. Adamczak, A tail inequality for suprema of unbounded empirical processes with applications to Markov chains, Electronic Journal of Probability 13(34):1000–1034, 2008. https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.3110
J. A. Fill, Eigenvalue bounds on convergence to stationarity for nonreversible Markov chains, with an application to the exclusion process, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(1):62–87, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005981
Skill Acquisition and Data Sales: Under Uncertain Skill Acquisition and Accurate Data, Higher Skill-Acquisition Costs Raise Data Clarity, Data Price and Price InformativenessResearch Paper
Motivation
Asset managers increasingly buy alternative data: satellite images, credit-card panels, web traffic. Raw data of this kind is worthless until someone has the skills to process it, and those skills are costly and uncertain to acquire. A fund can hire data scientists and still find that its models extract little. Huang, Xiong and Yang (Management Science, 2022) build an equilibrium model of a data seller who sells to investors who must first acquire such skills. They ask how the cost of acquiring skills feeds through the data market into the financial market: into how much the price reveals, the cost of capital and return volatility.
The model joins two lines of work. One is the classical noisy rational-expectations market of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980), in which prices partly reveal private information. The other is the literature on selling information started by Admati and Pfleiderer (1986, 1990), in which a monopolist seller degrades the information it sells to limit what the price leaks. The new feature is the "gold rush" of skill acquisition: an investor who pays the cost learns only afterwards whether her skill is high or low.
Setting
A risky asset pays θ~∼N(0,τθ−1) and there is noise demand u~∼N(0,τu−1). A data seller observes θ~+η~ with η~∼N(0,τη−1); the precision τη is the data accuracy. The seller chooses a clarityx∈(0,∞] and passes the data with personalized noise, so that a buyer of skill z receives a signal of precision xz about θ~+η~. The value x=∞ means the data are sold "as is".
A continuum of CARA investors with risk aversion γ is indexed by i∈[0,1]. Investor i can acquire data-processing skills at cost C(c,i), where c>0 is a cost parameter. The cost is continuous and strictly increasing in i, with C(c,0)=0 and C(c,i)→∞ as i→1, and it is strictly increasing in c. A skilled investor turns out high-skilled (ZH) or low-skilled (ZL) with probability 21 each, with 0<ZL<ZH. A mass λ of investors becomes skilled.
In the asset market, the price reveals θ~+η~ with precision α2τu, and α is pinned down by the market-clearing equation (14). Skilled investors buy the data at a Nash-bargained price q=βG, where G(x,α) is the certainty-equivalent trading gain (15) and β∈(0,1) is the seller's bargaining power. Investors acquire skills until the marginal investor is indifferent, (1−β)G(x,α)=C(c,λ) (19). The seller chooses x to maximize the profit λq. An equilibrium is a clarity x∗ with its (λ∗,α∗) such that no other feasible clarity gives more profit.
The market outcomes are:
the data priceq∗;
price informativeness1/Var(θ~∣p~);
the cost of capitalE(θ~−p~);
return volatilityσ(θ~−p~);
skilled investors' performance, the average certainty-equivalent advantage (21) of a skilled over an unskilled investor.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 5
Fix 0<c1<c2. There is a threshold T such that, for every data accuracy τη≥T and every pair of equilibria at c1 and c2, both clarities are finite and
The paper writes these as signs of derivatives in c. The goal states them as comparisons between two cost levels, which is what the prose of the proposition asserts.
Milestones
Proposition 1: for given (λ,x), equation (14) has a unique positive root α.
Proof of Proposition 2: for each finite clarity x, a unique (λ,α) solves (14) and (19).
Proposition 2 (1): an equilibrium exists.
(C5): on feasible tuples the profit equals βλC(c,λ)/(1−β).
Proposition 3: in equilibrium, x∗<∞ if λ∗τη>α∗γ and x∗=∞ otherwise.
The clarity limit: as τη→∞, every solution x of (14) tends to 2αγ/(λ(ZH+ZL)).
The α limit: the equilibrium α∗ tends to τθ/τu.
(C18): the equilibrium λ∗ tends to a root of (C18).
Significance
The result. Proposition 5 is the paper's headline. When skills are uncertain, a rise in skill-acquisition costs makes prices more informative and lowers the cost of capital and return volatility. When skills are certain, these outcomes stay unchanged (Proposition 4). The mechanism is that the seller cannot tailor one clarity to buyers of unknown skill. To keep buyers interested as costs rise, she provides clearer data, and more information leaks into the price. The result separates the data market from a pure cost shock to information production. It gives empirical predictions for markets where skill acquisition is costlier, such as private or international equities.
Formalizing it. The proposition is proved in the paper by expansion in w=1/τη around w=0. A machine-checked version must make "sufficiently high τη" precise, with a threshold that holds uniformly over all equilibria. It must also control the exact finite-τη equilibrium rather than its limit. The mission also contributes the first noisy rational-expectations model with a strategic data seller on the platform: posterior variances, the equilibrium equation (14), the certainty-equivalent gain, and the seller's choice between finite clarity and selling "as is". No part of the paper has been formalized before.
Difficulty
Several comparisons follow at leading order in 1/τη. As τη→∞ the equilibrium mass converges to the root of (C18), which is decreasing in c, and the clarity, the data price and performance are, to first order, functions of that mass. The price-informativeness, cost-of-capital and volatility comparisons do not follow at leading order. At τη=∞ the ratio α∗ tends to τθ/τu whatever the cost, so these three outcomes are flat in c to leading order. Their signs come from the O(1/τη) correction to α∗, and the correction must be controlled jointly with the seller's optimal clarity. A newcomer's first idea is to set τη=∞ in the equilibrium conditions and differentiate. That loses exactly the term that carries the result. A further difficulty is that the seller's optimum is defined by comparison with every feasible clarity, including selling "as is", not by a first-order condition.
Formalization scope
All quantities are real numbers. The parameters satisfy τθ,τu,γ>0, 0<β<1, 0<ZL<ZH and τη>0. Two of these go beyond the paper's §2 domains, and both are needed:
β>0: with β=0 the profit is identically zero and every clarity is optimal;
ZL>0: this is the paper's own condition on p. 23.
The cost family is any admissible C(c,i): continuous and strictly increasing in i on [0,1), C(c,0)=0, C(c,i)→∞ as i→1−, and strictly increasing in c on (0,1). "Increasing" in the paper is read as strictly increasing. Clarity is either a finite x>0 or "as is". At "as is", (14) becomes γα=λτη and both conditional variances given a signal equal 1/(τθ+τη). These are the x→∞ limits of the finite-clarity formulas. The value x=0 is excluded from the choice set because it gives no positive root of (14).
The posterior variances (8), (10), (12), the gain (15), the price coefficients (C1)–(C4), the cost of capital (C12), volatility (C13) and performance (21) are taken as closed-form definitions. Their CARA-normal derivation (Bayes' rule, market clearing, certainty equivalents) is not formalized. Equilibria are defined relationally: a feasible tuple whose profit is at least that of every feasible tuple, with no choice functions.
The goal concludes, rather than assumes, that the equilibrium clarities are finite. It quantifies over every equilibrium at each cost level. It does not define the equilibrium through the τη=∞ economy or through the paper's expansions, which would replace the theorem by its heuristic.
A complete development needs real analysis only: the intermediate value theorem, monotonicity, compactness on (0,∞], and asymptotics in 1/τη. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on an independent proof of Proposition 4's Δ=0 counterpart, and on a formal derivation of the closed forms from Gaussian conditioning and CARA utility, which would be reusable for other rational-expectations models.
Selected references
S. Huang, Y. Xiong, L. Yang, Skill Acquisition and Data Sales, Management Science 68(8), 2022; working paper version of July 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4117
S. J. Grossman, J. E. Stiglitz, On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets, American Economic Review 70(3), 1980. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805228
A. R. Admati, P. Pfleiderer, Direct and Indirect Sale of Information, Econometrica 58(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938330
N. Gârleanu, L. H. Pedersen, Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management, Journal of Finance 73(4), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12696
Managing Self-Replicating Innovative Goods: Characterization of the Optimal Production and Sales Policies under Strong ReplicabilityResearch Paper
Why self-replicating goods
Some goods can only be made by copies of themselves. RepRap and Prusa 3D printers print the parts of new printers, seed stock is grown from seed, and livestock herds breed. For such a good the inventory is also the production capacity: a unit sold today is a unit that will not replicate tomorrow. A firm launching such a good has to decide, at every instant, how much of its stock to use for replication and how much demand to serve. Demand for an innovative good is not exogenous either. It diffuses through the market by word-of-mouth, so sales held back today also slow future demand.
B. Hu and Z. Sun (Management Science) model this as a deterministic optimal control problem. Their demand side is the Bass diffusion model (Bass, 1969) in the supply-constrained form of Ho, Savin and Terwiesch (2002) and Kumar and Swaminathan (2003), where cumulative sales rather than cumulative demand drive imitation. Hu and Sun add diminishing word-of-mouth. Their main structural result, Theorem 1, says that under a condition they call Strong Replicability the optimal policy switches only once and can be found by a one-dimensional search.
The model
Time runs over [0,T], where T is the life cycle. The firm controls a production ratep(t) and a sales rates(t). The state consists of the cumulative demandD(t), the adjusted cumulative salesS(t) and the inventoryI(t). The demand rate is
d(t)=[α+mβS(t)][m−D(t)],
where m is the market size, α the coefficient of innovation and β the coefficient of imitation. Problem (1) of the paper is
Here π is the price, c the unit replication cost, h the holding cost rate, r the replication rate, ρ≥0 the discount rate and w≥0 the rate at which word-of-mouth decays. Unmet demand is lost. The paper assumes π>c and r>ρ. Production is on when p=rI and off when p=0. Sales are on when s=d and off when s=0.
Strong Replicability is condition (2),
(r−ρ)π>cr+h.
It says that letting a unit replicate for a short time and selling the offspring later is worth more than selling the unit now.
Two levels of the launch inventory organise the answer. I is the level at which keeping production and sales always on depletes the inventory exactly at T. I is the level at which keeping production off and sales on depletes it exactly at T.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1
Assume Strong Replicability. Then:
(a) if IL<I, the policy that keeps production always on and switches sales on once, at the time that depletes the inventory exactly at T, is optimal;
(b) if I<IL<I, the policy that keeps sales always on and switches production on once, at the time that depletes the inventory exactly at T, is optimal;
(c) if IL>I, the policy that keeps sales always on and production off is optimal, and it leaves inventory at T.
In each case, optimal means that the profit is at least
∫0T[πs~−cp~−hI~]e−ρtdt
for every admissible trajectory (D~,S~,I~,p~,s~), not only for policies of the stated shape. The switching times are not given in closed form, and the theorem asserts only that they exist.
Milestones
The thresholds are ordered, I<I (preamble of Theorem 1).
Proposition 1. Once production is switched on, an optimal policy keeps it on until T or inventory depletion.
Proposition 2, first half. Under Strong Replicability, every optimal trajectory has I(t)>0 for all t<T, whatever T is.
Significance
Theorem 1 turns an infinite-dimensional control problem into a choice of one switching time. Its managerial content is that a firm with a replicating good should, when stock is scarce, run replication at full capacity and hold back sales, losing some early customers, as long as the stock built up will eventually be sold. Proposition 2 says that under Strong Replicability the firm never sells out before the end of the life cycle. The paper's numerical study (§4) and its extensions (§5: backlogged demand, liquidity, stochastic diffusion) are built on this characterization.
The result has a published informal proof (pp. 36–37 of the manuscript), which applies necessary conditions from Pontryagin's maximum principle and then a perturbation and exchange argument. None of it is machine-checked. A complete formal proof would establish global optimality, against all integrable controls, for a nonlinear controlled ODE with mixed state–control constraints. That is a sufficiency statement, which the necessary conditions alone do not give.
Difficulty
The maximum principle gives necessary conditions only, and Problem (1) is not concave: the dynamics of D are bilinear in S and D, and the constraint p≤rI couples control and state. So the obvious route, solving the Pontryagin system and reading off the optimum, does not prove optimality. The paper's own argument is an exchange argument. It postpones sales or shifts production forward and claims each change improves profit, and it applies the change recursively ("by making the same argument recursively"). Making it rigorous requires comparison results for the Bass system under perturbed sales, which are delicate. Postponing sales lowers the adjusted sales S, and with it all future demand. The existence of the switching times also needs a continuity argument on the depletion time as a function of the switch.
Formalization scope
The Lean development lives in the namespace SelfReplic.Strong and uses real numbers throughout.
Parameters form a structure Params with fields m, price, c, h, r, alpha, beta, rho, w, T, IL. The predicate Params.Standing collects the page's assumptions IL>0, π>c, r>ρ≥0, w≥0. It adds the sign conditions m>0, T>0, α>0, β≥0, c≥0, h≥0, which the paper uses but never states. Params.StrongRepl is condition (2).
Admissible trajectories (IsAdmissible) have integrable controls p,s and continuous states D,S,I on [0,T]. The three ODEs hold in integral form at every t∈[0,T], the constraints 0≤p≤rI, 0≤s≤d hold at every t∈[0,T], and I(T)≥0. The integral form is used because bang-bang controls are discontinuous. Continuity and integrability prevent any integral from silently taking Lean's default value 0. Nonnegativity of I follows from 0≤p≤rI, as on p. 8.
Optimality (IsOptimal) compares the discounted profit with every admissible trajectory of the same parameters.
Policy shapes are pointwise statements on [0,T], and a switch instant counts as "on". The thresholds I,I enter as real numbers with their defining property (IsLowLevel, IsHighLevel), evaluated at the same parameters with IL replaced.
Proposition 1 is read up to null sets ("production has run before t0", conclusion almost everywhere). It carries the added hypothesis ρc+h>0, which the paper's proof uses. Without it (ρ=h=0), pausing production is costless and the statement fails.
A formalization that states Theorem 1 inside its own policy class (the best policy of shape (a) is the best of shape (a)) would be empty. Here the competitor in every case ranges over all admissible trajectories.
Not formalized: Theorem 2 (Weak Replicability), whose closed form (3) for the production interval is inexact when ρ>0; Corollaries 1–2; the second half of Proposition 2, which fails when IL≥m; the unnumbered bang-bang claim of p. 9; Propositions 3–4 (§5).
Contributions that would be reusable beyond this mission include existence and uniqueness for the controlled Bass system in integral form, a comparison lemma for D and S under pointwise-ordered sales, and a sufficiency (verification) theorem for bang-bang controls of problems that are linear in the control.
Selected references
B. Hu, Z. Sun, Managing self-replicating innovative goods, Management Science (doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3936); authors' manuscript of 2020-10-18. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3936
T.-H. Ho, S. Savin, C. Terwiesch, Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint, Management Science 48(2), 187–206, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.2.187.255
Supplier Encroachment in a Non-Exclusive Reselling Channel: The Encroaching Supplier May Sell Only Directly at a Positive Direct Cost, or Through Both Channels at a Negative OneResearch Paper
Why encroachment through a shared reseller matters
Manufacturers that sell through retailers increasingly also sell directly to consumers, through their own web stores or outlets. The operations literature calls this supplier encroachment. The classical analysis (Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington, 2007) assumes an exclusive reseller: the reseller carries only the encroaching supplier's product. In that setting a supplier whose direct channel costs more per unit than the reseller's still sells through the reseller, and a supplier whose direct channel is cheaper never does.
Real resellers are rarely exclusive. A retailer that carries one brand usually carries competing brands too, and its order from one supplier depends on its order from the others. Hotkar and Gilbert (Management Science, 2021) study what changes when the reseller is non-exclusive. Their headline finding, Proposition 5, is that both conclusions of the exclusive model can reverse.
Setting
Two suppliers, i∈{1,2}, sell partially substitutable products through one reseller. Supplier 1 can also sell directly. The reseller orders q1 and q2; supplier 1 sells y units directly. The substitutability between the two suppliers' products is θ12∈(0,1), written θ below. Supplier 1's direct product is a perfect substitute for her product at the reseller. Prices clear the market linearly:
Production and reselling cost nothing. A direct sale costs supplier 1 an extra c per unit, and c may be negative: the direct channel can be more efficient than the reseller. With wholesale pricesw1,w2≥0, the reseller earns q1(p1−w1)+q2(p2−w2), supplier 1 earns y(pd−c)+q1w1, and supplier 2 earns q2w2.
The game has three stages:
the suppliers set w1 and w2 simultaneously, and neither observes the other's price;
the reseller, who sees both prices, orders q1 and q2;
supplier 1 observes q1, but not q2 or w2, and chooses y.
Supplier 1 holds a beliefw2′ about supplier 2's price. In stage III her quantity y and her conjecture q2′ of the reseller's order from supplier 2 are mutual best responses computed with w2′ (Lemma 1). In an equilibrium (the paper's (4.7)–(4.16)), beliefs equal the actual prices. The reseller best-responds at every price pair, anticipating supplier 1's reaction. Neither supplier gains from a unilateral price change. After a deviation by supplier 2, supplier 1's belief stays where it was. This is not a subgame-perfect equilibrium, because supplier 1 cannot observe w2.
The paper restricts the direct cost to c0(θ)<c<c3(θ) (p. 9). It identifies thresholds c0≤c1≤c2≤c3 (Table 2) that separate three regimes:
Direct Only (c≤c1) and Direct Only Boundary (c1≤c≤c2), in which the reseller orders nothing from supplier 1;
Reseller & Direct (c>c2), in which supplier 1 uses both channels.
The sign of c2 is that of
Num1(θ)=32−θ(80+θ(32+θ(14+θ(8−(4−θ)θ)))),
which has a unique root θ^≈0.3443 in (0,1).
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 22)
∃θ^∈(0,1),Num1(θ^)=0,such that
for 0<θ<θ^: c2(θ)>0, and for every c∈(0,c2(θ)] an equilibrium exists and every equilibrium has q1∗=0<y∗. Supplier 1 sells only directly, although her direct channel is less efficient;
for θ^<θ<1: c2(θ)<0. For θ^<θ≤9/10 and every c∈(c2(θ),0) there is an equilibrium with q1∗>0 and y∗>0. Supplier 1 sells through both channels, although her direct channel is more efficient.
Milestones
Lemma 1: the stage-III pair (yIII,q2′), which is unique.
Lemma 2: the reseller's conditionally optimal q2III.
Corollary 1: q2III=q2′ when w2=w2′.
Lemma 4: the threshold order c0≤c1≤c2≤c3.
Lemma 4: for c≤c2, the Direct Only and Direct Only Boundary prices are equilibria, and every equilibrium has q1∗=0<y∗.
Lemma 4: the Reseller & Direct equilibrium for c2<c<0 (stated for θ≤9/10).
The sign facts about Num1 used in the proof of Proposition 5.
Significance
With an exclusive reseller, efficiency alone decides channel use: a costlier direct channel is used alongside the reseller, and a cheaper one replaces it. Proposition 5 shows that this rule fails once the reseller also carries a competitor.
When the products are weakly substitutable, supplier 1 may abandon the reseller although it is the cheaper channel. Supplier 2 then prices just low enough to keep her out.
When they are strongly substitutable, supplier 1 keeps selling through the reseller although her own channel is cheaper. The reseller's order shields her from supplier 2.
The result explains why observed channel structures need not reflect relative channel costs. It also shows which assumption of the exclusive model drives its conclusions.
As far as the mission's searches found, no part of this model has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes a game with unobservable prices and belief-based stage-III conjectures. Such games occur throughout the supply-chain contracting literature, and the equilibrium predicate here can be reused for them. The paper's proofs are algebraic, but they verify deviation incentives across a piecewise-defined reseller response, with polynomials of degree eight in θ. A formal proof has to check every branch.
Difficulty
The reseller's best response is piecewise in q1: supplier 1 sells directly only while q1 is below a threshold, and her conjecture about q2 can hit zero. The paper analyzes the reseller's choice under a restriction (Lemmas 1–3) that rules out the conjecture q2′=0 for small q1, and argues that the excluded region cannot occur in equilibrium. Deviation prices, however, can push the reseller into that region. There the reseller's objective is not concave in q1, and supplier 1 may find a price cut that triggers a jump in the reseller's order. A proof of Lemma 4 cannot simply cite first-order conditions inside the restricted region: it has to rule out such jumps for every deviation price. Numerically this succeeds for θ≤9/10, but it fails for θ close to 1.
The uniqueness claim in part (a) is a statement about every strategy profile, including the reseller's off-path rules. It cannot be obtained by exhibiting one profile. The equilibrium prices themselves are not unique for c≤c2, so this claim concerns the channel use q1∗=0<y∗ only.
Formalization scope
Everything is real-valued and lives in NonExclEncroach.Channels. The conventions are:
the paper's case θ1d=1 (§4), hence θ2d=θ; §5 (θ1d=0.8) is out of scope;
the standing range 0<θ<1 and c0<c<c3 (p. 9), with c allowed to be negative;
prices and quantities in [0,∞);
best responses as argmaxes over [0,∞), with no tie-breaking rule;
a strategy profile made of the two prices, supplier 1's direct-quantity and conjecture rules as functions of the observed q1, and the reseller's order rule at every price pair. Supplier 1's belief is the equilibrium price of supplier 2 and does not move after supplier 2 deviates.
The goal quantifies over this equilibrium predicate. Stating Proposition 5 with the quantities read off Table 1, or as the sign of c2 alone, would reduce it to the sign of Num1, and is ruled out.
Three statements depart from the page, and each departure is disclosed in its Formalization Note:
Part (b) of the goal and the Direct Only/Boundary part of Lemma 4 are stated for θ≤9/10. The Reseller & Direct part of Lemma 4 is stated for θ≤9/10 and c2<c<0. A numerical solution of the game shows that the paper's equilibrium prices fail outside these ranges: for θ near 1, for θ≥0.85 with c>0.3, and just below c3 (where supplier 2 gains by raising her price until the reseller shuts down the direct channel). The paper also announces that the Direct Only and Direct Only Boundary prices are the unique equilibrium prices for c≤c2. That is false: a lower w2, with w1 at the reseller's threshold, can also be an equilibrium. Those prices are therefore stated as existence.
"There exist positive (negative) values of c" is strengthened to every c in (0,c2] (in (c2,0)).
Lemma 2 assumes that the upper branch of (4.19) is non-negative.
Not formalized: Lemma 3, whose threshold 2c−1 is correct only when w2=w2′; the appendix lemma eliminating equilibria with q2′=0; and Propositions 1–4 and 6–8.
Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general existence theorem for the reseller's order rule, and an analysis of the game for θ near 1.
A. Arya, B. Mittendorf and D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
D. G. Pearce, Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection, Econometrica 52(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911197
Design and Pricing of Discretionary Service Lines: Under SPT Without Customer Heterogeneity, the Optimal Service Line Has Variety, No Cutoff and a Concave Price Falling at the TopResearch Paper
Motivation
Many services are discretionary: the provider chooses how long to spend with a customer, and a longer service is worth more to the customer. Medical consultations, legal and tax advice, repair and diagnostic work, and personal services such as hair styling all have this shape. A firm offering such services designs a service line, a menu of service durations with a price for each, and runs it on one shared resource. Longer services are more valuable, but they also slow the queue for everyone else, and customers dislike waiting.
L. Debo and C. Li, in Design and Pricing of Discretionary Service Lines (SSRN 3054741, 2017; later published in Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3670), study this problem by combining a Mussa–Rosen style product-line model with a single-server queue. A central question is whether congestion alone, with all customers identical, can make variety optimal. Under first-in-first-out (FIFO) service the answer is no: with homogeneous customers the optimal line collapses to a single service. Under the shortest-processing-time (SPT) priority rule the paper shows that the optimal line does offer variety. This mission formalizes that result.
Setting
Customers arrive as a Poisson process of rate Λ>0. A customer who receives a service of duration t gets value V(t,θˉ)=θˉt−bt2 with b>0, and pays a waiting cost c per unit of sojourn time, waiting plus service. All customers have the same quality sensitivity θˉ: the paper's heterogeneity parameter Δ is 0. The standing assumption is 0<c<θˉ.
A service line is a shortest duration t, a longest duration tˉ, and a demand measureμ on [t,tˉ]⊆[0,∞). When demand has a density λ(t), customers choosing durations in [t,t+dt] arrive at rate λ(t)dt. Its moments are
Λk=∫τkμ(dτ),k=0,1,2,
so Λ0 is the throughput and Λ1 the load on the server. A line is feasible if Λ0≤Λ (customers may be turned away) and Λ1<1 (the queue is stable).
The server uses non-preemptive SPT: whenever it frees up, it starts the shortest waiting service. By Phipps and Van Voorhis (1956), a customer with duration t waits in queue for
W(t)=(1−∫ttτλ(τ)dτ)2Λ2/2
on average, which is eq. (7) of the paper. The expected queue length is Q=∫Wdμ. With Δ=0 the paper's mechanism-design problem (its Proposition 1) reduces to the firm's problem
maxΠ=(θˉΛ1−bΛ2)−c(Λ1+Q)over feasible service lines,(9)
and the price of duration t is
P(t)=θˉt−bt2−c(t+W(t)),
which leaves every customer zero surplus.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 5
For every Λ>0, problem (9) has an optimal service line, and every optimal line has
service variety, t<tˉ;
no customer cutoff, Λ0=Λ;
a price P that is concave on [t,tˉ], with
dtdP(tˉ)<0.
There are also thresholds Λ,Λˉ>0, depending on (θˉ,b,c), such that
dtdP(t)<0 for Λ∈(0,Λ),dtdP(t)>0 for Λ∈(Λˉ,∞).
The thresholds are existential, so the goal does not commit to their values.
Milestones
Corollary 1. For every feasible line, Q≥21{ln(1−Λ1)}2. The bound does not depend on Λ0, and it is attained by λ(t)∝1/t3 on a line with t<tˉ.
Root of (A–35). The equation F(ω)=0 of the paper's Lemma A7 has a root ω∈(0,1).
Lemma A7. Every optimal line is given in closed form by a root ω of (A–35): Λ0=Λ, Λ1=1−ω, and explicit Λ2, t, tˉ.
Quadratic waiting time. At an optimum, W(t)=−α0+α2t2 on [t,tˉ] with α2>0 and 2α2tˉ=θˉ/c−1.
Proposition 5 split into its parts: (i)–(ii), (iii) at the top end, and (iii) at the bottom end.
Significance
The result separates two sources of variety. Classical product-line theory obtains variety from heterogeneous tastes. Proposition 5 obtains it from operations alone: under SPT, short services jump the queue, so a spread of durations lowers total waiting below what any single duration achieves (Corollary 1 makes this exact). This outweighs the loss in service value from moving away from a single duration. The price result is the operational counterpart. Customers who choose the longest services wait the longest, so the price falls at the top of the line, and in small markets it falls along the whole line. This contrasts with FIFO, where the price always increases in duration.
Formalizing these results adds the following. The paper's proofs are long first-order-condition calculations over a constrained calculus-of-variations problem. They take existence of an optimum for granted, and they argue the bottom-end sign through Taylor approximations in the limits 2b/(Λc)→0 and →∞. A machine-checked proof would establish existence, rigorously derive the optimality conditions over all demand measures, and turn the asymptotic sign argument into a proof. As far as is known, none of these results, nor the SPT waiting-time formula, has a machine-checked proof.
Difficulty
The obvious approach is to optimize pointwise in λ(t). This fails because W at duration t depends on the whole demand below t through the cumulative load, and on Λ2, so the objective is a nonlocal, nonconvex functional of the demand schedule. A second obvious idea is to compare with the best single service. That comparison shows only that some non-degenerate line beats one particular collapsed line. It neither produces an optimum nor rules out an optimum with an atom. Existence also needs an argument: the feasible set of measures is not compact in any naive sense, because the support can drift and the load constraint is strict. Finally, the sign of P′(t) depends on where the root of the transcendental equation (A–35) lies, and the paper controls this only asymptotically.
Formalization scope
Everything is real-valued. A service line is a Lean structure with endpoints lo, hi and a measure μ : Measure ℝ. Admissibility requires:
μ is finite and lives on [t,tˉ] with 0≤t≤tˉ;
μ charges every right-neighbourhood of t and every left-neighbourhood of tˉ, so the endpoints are the shortest and longest services actually offered;
Λ1<1.
Feasibility adds Λ0≤Λ. The waiting time is
W(t)=(1−L−(t))(1−L+(t))Λ2/2,
with L− and L+ the loads of durations <t and ≤t. This is eq. (7) for densities. At atoms it is Cobham's non-preemptive priority wait, with ties served FIFO, and for a single service it is the M/D/1 value Λ2/(2(1−Λ1)).
Point masses are allowed on purpose. If demand were restricted to densities, a collapsed line would be infeasible and t<tˉ would hold by construction. Letting the endpoints float freely, beyond the support, would trivialize it in the same way. Both encodings are therefore excluded.
The following conventions are committed:
the reduced problem (9) is used instead of the mechanism of Proposition 1;
Δ=0 is built in, with no parameter for θ;
V is uncapped;
the price derivatives at t and tˉ are one-sided, taken within [t,tˉ], because P has a kink at tˉ;
existence of an optimum is stated explicitly;
uniqueness of the optimum or of the root of (A–35) is not claimed;
the hypotheses b>0 and Λ>0 are added, since they are implicit in the paper.
A complete development needs: integration against finite measures on R; existence of optimal measures under moment and load constraints; first-order conditions for the nonlocal functional Q; and real analysis of F. The SPT waiting-time functional and Corollary 1's queue-length bound are reusable for other priority-queue design problems. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, in particular Corollary 1 and the existence part of Lemma A7.
T. E. Phipps Jr. and W. R. Van Voorhis, Machine repair as a priority waiting-line problem, Operations Research 4(1), 76–86, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.4.1.76
A. Cobham, Priority assignment in waiting line problems, Journal of the Operations Research Society of America 2(1), 70–76, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2.1.70
Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Games and Mean-Field Games with Impulse Controls: A Regular Solution of the N-Player Quasi-Variational Inequalities Gives a Nash EquilibriumResearch Paper
Why this game matters
An impulse control changes a system's state at a chosen instant, rather than continuously adjusting its drift. When several decision makers can intervene in the same state process, an intervention changes both the acting player's future cost and every opponent's. This makes the equilibrium question different from separate single-player control problems. Basei, Cao and Guo formulate a multidimensional, N-player stochastic impulse game and give a verification theorem for Nash equilibria in their preprint. This mission formalizes that theorem, Theorem 2.12, and the path and QVI statements on which its proof depends. It is the cost-minimizing, N-player generalization of the two-player impulse game of Aïd et al., posed independently because the conventions and equilibrium inequalities differ; that two-player verification theorem is itself an open target on the platform.
Game and costs
There are N≥1 players and a state X in a nonempty open domain S⊆Rd. Between interventions the state follows an Itô diffusion with drift b, volatility σ, and an M-dimensional Brownian driver. Player i chooses a strategy(Ai,ξi): a closed action region Ai and a continuous impulse rule ξi:S→Zi. When the state enters Ai, that player shifts it from y to Γi(y,ξi(y)). The process stops at its exit time τS from S. The action regions of an admissible profile are pairwise disjoint, although consecutive interventions at one instant can still occur when an impulse lands in another player's region. These rules are given in Definitions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.7 of the source.
Every player minimizes cost. Player i pays a discounted running cost fi, an own-intervention cost ϕi, a cross cost ψi,j when player j=i intervenes, and terminal cost hi if the game exits. With τi,k and ξi,k denoting player i's intervention times and impulses, the expected cost is
An admissible profile satisfies the source's integrability, moment and nonaccumulation conditions. A Nash equilibrium is an admissible profile for which no player can lower their own cost through an admissible unilateral change Definitions 2.6–2.8.
Formalization targets
For candidate values Vi and minimizing impulses ξi, define the own intervention operatorMiVi(y)=Vi(Γi(y,ξi(y)))+ϕi(y,ξi(y)) and the cross intervention operatorHi,jVi(y)=Vi(Γj(y,ξj(y)))+ψi,j(y,ξj(y)). Put Di={y∈S:MiVi(y)−Vi(y)>0}, Ai∗={y∈S:MiVi(y)−Vi(y)=0}, and Wi=S∩⋂j=iDj. The QVI system requires a boundary limit Vi→hi, nonnegative own intervention gaps, zero cross gaps when an opponent acts, and the diffusion condition
The goal, Theorem 2.12, says that if every ξi uniquely minimizes the own intervention expression, the Vi solve the full QVI system and have the stated smoothness and boundary regularity, and φ∗=((Ai∗,ξi))i is admissible at x, then (with one added hypothesis, explained under Formalization scope)
φ∗ is a Nash equilibrium,Vi(x)=Ji(x;φ∗)for every i.
The milestone list follows the proof's path: the controlled-process representation and jumps in Lemma 2.3; the candidate opponents' waiting and intervention properties in (2.15); the smooth approximations Vi,m of (a)–(c), which the paper takes from Øksendal, proof of Thm. 10.4.1 and App. D; the three pointwise comparisons (2.19)–(2.21), a thin bridge from the QVI to the proof; the deviation bound in Step 1; and the value identity in Step 2. The localized Itô identity (2.18) is not a separate milestone: as printed, its expectation is not shown to be finite near the boundary of Wi, and with simultaneous interventions its jump terms must be read stage by stage, so a faithful statement needs choices the page does not make. It remains the natural intermediate target between (a)–(c) and Step 1.
What the result provides
The theorem turns a regular solution of a coupled, nonlocal QVI system into a certificate for an equilibrium and its expected costs. It supplies the bridge from analytic candidate value functions to the original stochastic game. The result is proved in the preprint; the Lean declarations here are open statements, so the remaining work is a machine-checked development of the path construction, Itô formula across interventions, approximation near action boundaries and limiting arguments. The stochastic basis and diffusion generator reused here are published definitions from the two-player development, while the N-player game and its minimizing QVI are new reusable interfaces.
Main obstacles
Applying a smooth Itô formula directly to Vi(Xt) fails because X jumps at interventions and Vi is only C1 across ∂Di. The source therefore uses smooth approximations and localizes before taking limits Theorem 2.12, proof. The analytic challenge is to control the generator of the approximants near a Lipschitz surface; the probabilistic challenge is to justify the expectation and the limits from the exact admissibility conditions. Treating the QVI as an inequality everywhere in S would impose a generator value where the second derivative need not exist.
Formalization scope
Lean represents the state as a Euclidean space, players as Fin N with N≥1, costs and values as real numbers, and times as [0,∞]. The published SolvesFrom predicate encodes the restarted SDE through a Brownian Itô integral; the filtration satisfies the usual conditions and supports an F-Brownian motion. The source names the Brownian natural filtration, so this is a disclosed generalization. An admissible realization is a family of diffusion pieces solving that same SDE. Membership in Φx asks for at least one realization, while cost identities and Nash comparisons cover every admissible realization. The expected cost includes an integrability requirement, and admissibility asks that the running-cost integrand be integrable in time along almost every path, which is how "provided that the right-hand side exists and is finite" (Definition 2.6) is read. This prevents Lean's integral default on a nonintegrable payoff from making the theorem empty.
S is open: the page calls it "a non-empty subset", but p. 9 says that Vi "is not defined in ∂S", which is openness, and the C2 condition (ii) and the generator in (2.13d) need an open domain. One hypothesis is added to Theorem 2.12, Step 1 and Step 2: along every admissible deviation, the time the state spends on ∂Di has Lebesgue measure zero almost surely. This is the occupation-time hypothesis of Øksendal's Theorem 10.4.1, the result whose proof the paper cites for (a)–(c); the passage from (2.17) to (2.18) uses it, because (c) controls LVi,m only off ∂Di. The page omits it, and the theorem fails without it when σ is degenerate: a path can run along ∂Di, where (2.13d) imposes nothing on fi. For a nondegenerate diffusion the hypothesis holds automatically. In (a)–(c), Wi is assumed open, as the page's C2(∩j=iDj) presupposes; in the proof it is open because S is open and the Aj∗ are closed.
The path construction uses entry into closed action regions, choosing the least index when multiple entry times agree; exit from S uses the next stage's exit time. Discount at infinite time is zero. The path norm in the moment condition is taken through τS, because a process continued beyond game exit could have an infinite global supremum and make Φx empty. Cross costs use player j's intervention time. Boundary data in (2.13a) are limits from within S; the generator equation and derivative bounds are required where the derivatives exist, off ∂Di. The common waiting region includes S, so it remains S for one player. Action regions are built from Vi and ξi, not free variables. The source's printed formulas also call scalar costs vector valued and state some jump identities without accounting for consecutive interventions; the definitions and Lemma 2.3 follow the operational readings described in the item notes. In Lemma 2.3 the avoidance of the action regions is stated at positive times, since the initial state may lie in an action region without an intervention at time 0. A statement that drops the QVI clauses, fixes one realization for the conclusion, restricts the deviations, or reads (2.8) as a supremum over all times (which makes Φx empty for bounded S) would trivialize the goal and is ruled out by the definitions.
The definitions of the N-player path, admissibility, cost and QVI are intended for reuse. Contributions that establish the localized Itô identity, smooth approximation and dominated-convergence steps are especially useful. Every proposed proof must preserve the full QVI system, all admissible unilateral deviations, and the source's standing assumptions.
Selected references
M. Basei, H. Cao and X. Guo, Nonzero-sum stochastic games and mean-field games with impulse controls, arXiv:1901.08085v4, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.08085v4
R. Aïd et al., Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications, Mathematics of Operations Research 45(1), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0982
A General Analysis of Sequential Social Learning: Asymptotic Learning Holds for Every Utility Function if and only if Private Signals Are Totally UnboundedResearch Paper
Motivation
In sequential social learning, agents act one after another. Each agent observes the actions of its predecessors and a private signal about an unknown state of the world. The model explains herd behaviour, information cascades and the adoption of products, technologies and opinions when people imitate one another. The basic question is whether the population eventually acts as if it knew the state, or whether public information can lock agents into a wrong action.
The answer depends on the setting:
Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992) and Banerjee (1992) showed that with finitely many signals agents eventually ignore their private information and may herd on a wrong action.
Smith and Sorensen (2000) characterized learning for binary states and actions: asymptotic learning holds if and only if private beliefs are unbounded, meaning a single signal can make an agent arbitrarily sure of either state.
Arieli and Mueller-Frank (preprint SSRN 2466903, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021) treat general state spaces, compact action spaces and all bounded utilities that are continuous in the action. They characterize when learning holds for every such utility.
Setting
A social learning model(Ω,μ,A,S,F) consists of the following:
a separable complete metric state space Ω with a prior μ;
a compact metric action space A with at least two actions;
a standard Borel signal space S;
a Markov kernel F:Ω→Δ(S), ω↦Fω. Any two Fω,Fω′ are mutually absolutely continuous, and distinct states have distinct signal laws.
A state ω∼μ is drawn once. Agents t=0,1,2,… act in sequence. Agent t observes the history ht=(a0,…,at−1) and a private signal st∼Fω, drawn conditionally i.i.d. given ω. It then chooses an action by a mixed strategy σt(ht,st)∈Δ(A). All agents share a utility u from the class U of bounded measurable functions A×Ω→R that are continuous in the action. The profile σ, the prior and the kernel determine the play measurePσ on states, signals and actions.
A profile is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) if no agent can raise its expected utility Eσ[u(at,ω)] by changing its own strategy. Write O(ω)=maxau(a,ω) and yt=u(at,ω).
Asymptotic learning holds for u if yt→O(ω)Pσ-almost surely in every PBE.
Adequate learning holds if asymptotic learning holds for every u∈U.
Let μF(E∣s) be the posterior probability of an event E⊆Ω after one signal s. The information structure has totally unbounded signals if the support of the law of μF(E∣s) contains both 0 and 1 for every event E with 0<μ(E)<1.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1
adequate learning holds⟺(F,μ) features totally unbounded signals.
The statement is an equivalence between two properties of the model. It has no constants.
Milestones
The milestones are the results the paper's proof uses, in attack order:
Lemma 3. A utility in U is jointly uniformly continuous on a compact set of measure at least 1−ε.
Lemma 4. A single agent observing two signals has an ε-optimal strategy that takes finitely many actions and is constant on the cells of a finite product partition.
Lemma 1. The vanishing value of private information: dt=Eσ[yt−y^t∣ht]→0 almost surely in every PBE, where y^t=maxaEσ[u(a,ω)∣ht].
Lemma 2. The belief at infinity μ∞(⋅∣h) is almost surely a degenerate prior: one more signal has zero value against it.
Lemma 5 (first part). Total unboundedness passes from μ to every ν≪μ with dν/dμ≤C.
Lemma 7. Conditioning P∈Δ(Δ(Ω)) on a set K gives a barycenter whose density with respect to P~ is at most 1/P(K).
Lemma 8. If learning fails with probability above r′, there is a set B with μ(B)>0 on which the failure persists, and every belief concentrated near B acts almost optimally on B.
Necessity. Without totally unbounded signals, some u∈U has no asymptotic learning.
Significance
Theorem 1 separates two questions. Whether learning succeeds for a particular utility depends on the utility, and for finite actions the paper gives weaker sufficient conditions (its Theorems 2 and 3). Whether learning succeeds for every utility depends on the information structure alone, and total unboundedness is exactly the condition. The theorem extends Smith and Sorensen's binary characterization to arbitrary separable complete metric state spaces. It also shows that their convex-hull condition does not carry over to more states. Lemma 1, the vanishing value of private information, holds in every sequential social learning game and is a reusable tool beyond this paper.
The results are proved on paper. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires:
the equilibrium play measure, built by the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem;
martingale convergence of public beliefs;
a regular-conditional-probability treatment of beliefs over general Polish state spaces.
The paper's proofs pass over some of this measure theory, for example the measurability of best replies and of the maximal posterior payoff. A formal proof has to supply it.
Difficulty
Necessity is a direct construction. The difficulty is sufficiency. The natural first idea is to copy the binary argument: the public belief is a martingale, so it converges, and at a limit belief in the interior of the simplex unbounded signals would give private information positive value. With a general state space and a general utility this breaks in two places:
the limit belief μ∞ is a random measure on Ω, not a number in (0,1);
"positive value of a signal" has to hold uniformly over agents who face different histories.
The paper handles this with three ingredients:
Lemma 2, whose proof needs an imitation argument through Lemma 4's finite discretization;
Lemma 8, which localizes the failure of learning to a small set B;
Lemmas 5 and 7, which transfer total unboundedness from the prior to an averaged limit belief.
Each step uses facts about conditional distributions that hold only almost everywhere.
Formalization scope
Everything is in the namespace SeqSocialLearning.Adequate on top of Mathlib. The conventions are:
Agents are indexed from 0: Lean's agent t is the paper's agent t+1 and sees Fin t → A.
Strategies are Markov kernels Kernel ((Fin t → A) × S) A, so they are mixed, as on p. 4. Restricting to pure strategies would change the equilibrium set.
The play measurePσ is constructed with Kernel.trajMeasure on trajectories of triples (ω,st,at). The state is copied into every coordinate.
PBE is the paper's ex-ante definition: no profitable unilateral measurable deviation. No off-path optimality is imposed.
Posteriors use Mathlib's posterior and condDistrib. "The support contains 0 and 1" is stated in the equivalent ε-form.
Degeneracy of a prior is the equality of the one-signal decision value with the no-signal value.
Lemma 8'sminω′∈B is an infimum.
Lemma 4's product partition is a grid given by two finite measurable maps.
Nonempty Ω appears as a hypothesis; it follows from μ being a probability measure.
Two formalizations would make the goal trivial, and both are excluded:
quantifying total unboundedness over all events, including those of prior probability 0 or 1, would make it always false;
positing the play measure by a predicate instead of constructing it would let it be arbitrary.
Contributions are welcome on two kinds of work:
reusable infrastructure: measurable selection of best replies on compact action spaces, martingale convergence of condDistrib along a filtration, and the identification of the play measure's marginals;
the proofs of the eight milestones and of the goal.
Theorems 2 and 3 (finite actions), Lemma 6, the second part of Lemma 5 and Example 1 are not part of this mission.
S. Bikhchandani, D. Hirshleifer and I. Welch, A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades, Journal of Political Economy 100(5), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1086/261849
A. V. Banerjee, A Simple Model of Herd Behavior, Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3), 1992. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118364
D. Rosenberg, E. Solan and N. Vieille, Informational Externalities and Emergence of Consensus, Games and Economic Behavior 66(2), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2008.07.007
Finite State Mean Field Games with Wright–Fisher Common Noise as Limits of N-Player Weighted Games: Normalized N-Player Equilibrium Values Converge to the Master Equation at a Polynomial RateResearch Paper
Motivation
Mean field games describe Nash equilibria of games with very many symmetric players by a single limiting object. Whether, and how fast, the equilibria of the N-player game converge to that limit is the convergence problem. For games with common noise, a source of randomness shared by all players, the standard route goes through the master equation, a PDE on the space of probability measures whose solution U gives the equilibrium value of a representative player as a function of the population's distribution (Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions, 2019, arXiv:1509.02505).
For finite state spaces the distribution is a point of the simplex. Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue (J. Math. Pures Appl. 147, 2021) introduced a common noise of Wright–Fisher type, the noise of population genetics, which keeps the distribution in the simplex and makes the master equation uniquely solvable. Its N-player counterpart is not obvious, because the Wright–Fisher diffusion is the limit of a resampling of the population, not of independent player noises. The paper behind this mission (Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022, arXiv:2012.04845) builds such a game, in which players carry weights that are resampled at random times, and proves that its normalized equilibrium values converge to U at a polynomial rate.
Setting
There are d≥1 states [[d]]={1,…,d} and N≥1 players. Player l is at a state xl and carries a weight yl≥0; the weights are rational and sum to N, and the set of such weight tuples is Y. The players interact through the weighted empirical measure
μx,yN[i]=N1l∑yl1{xl=i},
a point of the simplex Sd−1={p∈Rd:pi≥0,∑ipi=1}.
Each player controls the rates at which it jumps between states, at quadratic cost. A drift φ(μ[j]) pushes players towards nearly empty states, where φ is non-increasing and Lipschitz, equal to κ on [0,δ] and to 0 beyond 2δ. At rate εN the common noise draws S∼Multinomial(N,μx,yN) and replaces every weight yl by ylS[xl]/(Nμx,yN[xl]). Players pay ylf(xl,μ) per unit time and ylg(xl,μT) at time T.
The equilibrium values divided by the weights, wN,l(t,x,y), solve the normalized Nash system: a countable family of ordinary differential equations in t, indexed by (l,x,y), with the Hamiltonian H(i,u)=−21∑j=i(ui−uj)+2 and the terminal condition wN,l(T,x,y)=g(xl,μx,yN).
The limit object is U=(U1,…,Ud) on [0,T]×Sd−1, solving the master equation
with Ui(T,⋅)=gi. Here di are the intrinsic derivatives on the simplex, dih(p)=d1∑m∂ei−emh(p), and the last term is the Kimura operator of Wright–Fisher diffusions. The mean-field prediction for player l is zN,l(t,x,y)=Uxl(t,μx,yN).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.4
For κ large enough, there are χ>0 and C such that for every N, l, t, x and y∈Y,
The exponent χ is existential, so an improvement of the rate does not invalidate the target.
Milestones
Proposition 3.1: the normalized Nash system has a unique bounded solution.
Proposition 3.2: that solution is bounded by T∥f∥∞+∥g∥∞, uniformly in N.
Lemma 4.5: moment and deviation bounds for (Sμ[i]/(Nμ[i]))ℓ−1.
Lemmas 4.8–4.11: the common-noise, discrete-gradient, drift and Hamiltonian terms of the Nash system along zN,l against those of the master equation.
Proposition 4.6 with Remark 4.7: zN,l solves the Nash system up to a rest O(N−η) on the set TN where miniμx,yN[i]≥N−ϵ and maxlyl≤21N1−ϵ.
Significance
Theorem 2.4 gives a convergence rate for a finite-state mean field game whose common noise keeps the population on the simplex. It shows that the master equation of the earlier paper is the right limit of a concrete finite game, and with a diffusion-approximation argument it yields the paper's second main result, the weak convergence of the equilibrium empirical measure to the Wright–Fisher-type SDE (Theorem 2.6). The bound is not uniform in (x,y): it degenerates near the boundary of the simplex and for spread-out weights, which reflects the singular coefficient 1/μ[xl] in the resampling.
None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement of the convergence problem for a game with weighted players, a formal Nash system on a countable state space, intrinsic derivatives on the simplex, and multinomial moment estimates.
Difficulty
The usual proof of convergence plugs zN,l into the Nash system, controls the rest, and closes with a Gronwall argument along the N-player dynamics. Here the rest is small only on TN, away from the boundary of the simplex and for moderate weights; the second derivatives of U may blow up at the boundary, and the resampling ratio S[i]/(Nμ[i]) is unbounded as μ[i]→0. A uniform estimate of supx,y∣zN,l−wN,l∣ is therefore not available, and the comparison must be weighted by functions of (x,y) whose expectations along the dynamics can be controlled. The weights are unbounded and enter through their moments.
Formalization scope
States are Fin d and players Fin N, with d≥1 and N≥1 (no N≥2). Weights are rational, and every equation and conclusion is required only for y∈Y and t∈[0,T]. The simplex is Mathlib's stdSimplex. Intrinsic derivatives use lineDeriv; multinomial expectations are finite sums over Finset.Nat.antidiagonalTuple. The resampling ratio is 1 when μ[xl]=0, as in the paper. Solutions of the Nash system and of the master equation are classical in t, with one-sided derivatives at 0 and T. The Nash system is solved by any bounded classical solution; Proposition 3.1 says there is exactly one.
The formalization commits to the following readings of the source.
ε for ε2. The master equation carries ε and ε/2 in front of the common-noise terms where (2.3) prints ε2 and ε2/2. The N-player noise rings at rate εN, and the limit SDE (2.4) has intensity ε; with ε2, Proposition 4.6 and Theorem 2.4 would be false.
Regularity class. The Wright–Fisher Hölder space of Proposition 2.1, which the paper only describes, is replaced by an explicit class: U continuous on [0,T]×Sd−1, differentiable along the simplex in the interior together with dU, with U and dU bounded, and dU and pjpkdj,k2U bounded and γ′/2-Hölder. These are the properties §7 says the proofs use. The Hölder assumptions on f,g are replaced by boundedness.
Constants.χ is chosen after d and γ′, the threshold κˉ0 after d,ε,T and the bounds of f,g, and C after all model data and U, before N and the point.
Remark 4.7. Lemmas 4.9–4.11 and Proposition 4.6 are stated for zN,l, so no division by a vanishing weight occurs.
Two printed slips. Lemma 4.9's (4.28) uses dUj, not dUxl, and Lemma 4.5's (4.19) assumes Nμ[i]≥1, without which it fails.
The bound is not trivial. Since ∣z−w∣≤2(T∥f∥∞+∥g∥∞) and the right side is at least of order CN−χ, a constant C chosen after N would make the theorem empty; C precedes N. The functions w and U enter only through the Nash system and the master equation, and the class of U is not empty: for d=1 the function U1(t)=g1+(T−t)f1 is in it.
The mission takes U as given. Its existence for d≥2 is Theorems 3.2 and 3.4 of Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue (2021), quoted as Proposition 2.1, which is not a target. Also outside the mission are the N-player game itself (Propositions 2.2–2.3), Theorem 2.6, and the process estimates of §4.1 (Theorem 4.1, Remark 4.2, Propositions 4.3–4.4), which need a continuous-time Markov chain with a martingale-problem characterization. Contributions are welcome on every milestone; the multinomial estimates and the simplex calculus are reusable elsewhere.
Selected references
E. Bayraktar, A. Cecchin, A. Cohen, F. Delarue, Finite state mean field games with Wright–Fisher common noise as limits of N-player weighted games, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:2012.04845v2
E. Bayraktar, A. Cecchin, A. Cohen, F. Delarue, Finite state mean field games with Wright–Fisher common noise, Journal de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées 147:98–162, 2021. search
P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The Master Equation and the Convergence Problem in Mean Field Games, Annals of Mathematics Studies 201, Princeton University Press, 2019. arXiv:1509.02505
C. L. Epstein, R. Mazzeo, Degenerate Diffusion Operators Arising in Population Biology, Annals of Mathematics Studies 185, Princeton University Press, 2013. search
S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. doi:10.1002/9780470316658
A Dynkin Game on Assets with Incomplete Information on the Return: The Entry Times of the Two Stopping Regions Form a Saddle Point When k > 0Research Paper
Motivation
A game option (or Israeli option, introduced by Kifer, Game options, 2000) is an American option whose seller may also cancel the contract at any time, paying the exercise payoff plus a penalty. Pricing it is a Dynkin game: a zero-sum optimal stopping game in which the buyer chooses an exercise time to maximise the discounted payoff and the seller chooses a cancellation time to minimise it. Such contracts model, for instance, a public concession that the granting authority may revoke against compensation.
In the classical theory the drift of the underlying asset is known. De Angelis, Gensbittel and Villeneuve (arXiv:1705.07352v4, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021) study the perpetual game call option when neither player knows whether the asset pays a dividend: the return is r−δ0D with an unobservable D∈{0,1}. Both players learn about D only by watching the price. The paper's headline results are that the game has a value, that the value is globally C1, and that under explicit conditions on the parameters the game has a Nash equilibrium in pure strategies given by entry times into the two players' stopping regions. This mission formalizes the equilibrium result for the case k>0.
Timeline. Kifer (2000) introduced game options. Ekström and Villeneuve (AAP 2006) proved existence of the value for one-dimensional diffusions without uniform integrability and analysed the perpetual call with y=0. Ekström and Peskir (SICON 2008) proved existence of the value and of Nash equilibria for Markov processes under uniform integrability. Yam, Yung and Zhou (Game call options revisited, Mathematical Finance, 2012) treated the perpetual call with a known dividend (y=1). De Angelis, Gensbittel and Villeneuve (2017–2019) treated the case with an unknown dividend, y∈(0,1).
Setting
Fix a discount rate r>0, a dividend jump δ0>0, a volatility σ>0, a strike K>0 and a penalty ε0>0, and set G1(x)=(x−K)+ and G2(x)=(x−K)++ε0. On a probability space carrying a Brownian motion B and an independent random variable D∈{0,1} with P(D=1)=y, the asset is
Stx=xexp(σBt+(r−δ0D)t−2tσ2).
The players observe only S: their stopping times are stopping times of FS, the filtration generated by S and augmented by the null sets, with values in [0,∞]. For such τ (buyer) and γ (seller) the expected payoff is
with payoff 0 on {τ∧γ=∞}. The upper value is V=infγsupτM and the lower valueV=supτinfγM. A saddle point is a pair (τ∗,γ∗) with M(τ,γ∗)≤M(τ∗,γ∗)≤M(τ∗,γ) for all τ,γ.
The filterYt=E[D∣FtS] is the players' posterior belief that a dividend is paid; it has the closed form Yt=yℓt/(yℓt+1−y) with ℓt the likelihood ratio of the observed path. The pair (X,Y)=(S,Y) is Markov. With V=V the value, the stopping regions are S1={V=G1} (buyer) and S2={V=G2} (seller), and the entry times are
Finally k:=r−σ2/2−δ0/2. In the coordinates Zt=lnXt+δ0σ2ln1−YtYt one has Zt=Z0+kt, so the sign of k decides whether this time-like variable increases or decreases.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 7.3 (p. 26)
Under Assumption 7.1, σ2/δ0>1, and k>0: for every x>0 and y∈(0,1),
The goal asserts the shape of the equilibrium (entry times into the model's own stopping regions), with no constant to be improved.
Milestones
In attack order: the filter identity (§2, p. 5); the regularity of V,V (Lemma 3.1); the value, the seller's optimality, and the super- and submartingale properties (Theorem 3.2); positivity of V (Remarks 3.3); the location of the stopping regions (Proposition 4.1, Lemma 4.2 (i), (iii)); the boundaries b1,b2 (Corollary 4.5) and finiteness of b1 (Lemma 4.6); the parabolic change of coordinates (5.1)–(5.4); connectedness of the regions in parabolic coordinates (Lemmas 5.2, 5.4); the boundary c1 of S1′ (Corollary 5.5, (5.20)); and positivity of c1 (Lemma 7.2).
Significance
The result. Existence of the value does not give an equilibrium: without uniform integrability the buyer's natural candidate τ∗ may fail to be optimal, and in the complete-information case y=0 the pair (τ∗,γ∗) is indeed not a saddle point (Proposition C.1). Proposition 7.3 shows that partial information about the dividend restores a pure-strategy equilibrium when k>0, and identifies it: each player stops on entering their own stopping region, which is described by monotone free boundaries. This makes the option's hedging and cancellation policies explicit.
Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; nothing of it is machine-checked. The mission provides a Lean model of a continuous-time game with an unobservable parameter, built from Mathlib's Brownian motion, stopping times and martingales, and a decomposition of the proof into the paper's own lemmas. The theory the proofs use (optimal stopping games for Markov processes, Itô's formula, Girsanov's theorem) is largely absent from Mathlib.
Difficulty
The obvious argument fails at the buyer's side. The seller's optimality comes with the value (Theorem 3.2); for the buyer one needs V(x,y)≤M(τ∗,γ) for every γ, i.e. that the submartingale e−r(t∧τ∗)V can be sampled at τ∗∧γ. The payoffs are not uniformly integrable (Esupte−rtGi(St)=+∞), so optional sampling cannot be applied directly and the term E[e−rtV(Xt,Yt)1{t≤τ∗∧γ}] must be shown to vanish. That requires a pathwise bound on the price before τ∗, which in turn needs the geometry of S1 in both coordinate systems, monotonicity of Z (k>0), and strict positivity of the boundary c1 (Lemma 7.2, which needs σ2/δ0>1). Theorem 3.2 itself rests on the Ekström–Peskir theory of Markovian Dynkin games applied to a degenerate two-dimensional diffusion.
Formalization scope
Model. The paper's working process (X,Y) solves an SDE ((2.3)); Mathlib has no stochastic integral. The mission therefore states everything on the paper's original space (§2): X:=S as the explicit geometric Brownian motion (2.1), and Y the closed-form Bayes filter, which has the same law as the paper's pair (p. 6). The item filter_condexp ties Y to E[D∣FtS] and records its observation measurability and continuous paths, while eq_5_3 ties the encoding to the paper's coordinates (Z,Y).
Probability space. A Setting carries a measure P, a Brownian motion B with all paths continuous (a continuous modification), and U uniform on [0,1] independent of B; then Dy=1{U<y} realises every prior y on one space, so V(x′,y′) is defined at every state.
Information. The ambient probability measure is complete. Thus FtS is generated by (Ss)s≤t and all its null sets; it depends on (x,y). Stopping times take values in WithTop ℝ≥0, so infinite stopping times are allowed.
Payoff and values.M is a Lebesgue integral (lintegral) in [0,∞], with payoff 0 on {τ∧γ=∞}; V,V∈[0,∞], and V:=V as a real number (finite since V≤G2(x)).
Entry times are Mathlib's hittingAfter … 0 into {G2≤V} and {V≤G1}, equal to +∞ if never reached.
Boundaries.b1,b2 take values in [0,∞] with inf∅=+∞, sup∅=0. c1(z)=sup({0}∪{y∈(0,1)∣(z,y)∈S1′}) is an explicit choice of the boundary whose existence Corollary 5.5 asserts.
Domains and readings. The goal is posed for x>0, y∈(0,1), which the proof needs; it is false at y=0. Remarks 3.3 is posed for x>0 (V(0,y)=0). For the same reason the stopping regions and the boundaries b1,b2 live on (0,∞)×[0,1]: at the degenerate price x=0 one has V(0,y)=0=G1(0), and the page's literal x∈[0,∞) in (4.2) and (4.11) would give b1≡0. Lemma 3.1 (iii)'s "a given constant C" is read as an existential constant. The standing assumption k=0 of §5 is a hypothesis of Lemmas 5.2, 5.4, Corollary 5.5 and Lemma 7.2. Only clause (5.20) of Corollary 5.5 is formalized. Proposition 4.1 uses the explicit forms of A1,A2 printed on p. 9.
No trivialization. The filtration is that of the price, never one containing D (with D observed the game is the complete-information one, where the result fails); Y is the posterior, not the prior; V in the entry times is the game's own value, never a free function; stopping times include infinite ones; and the payoff is not a Bochner integral, which would silently be 0 for non-integrable payoffs.
Not formalized. Proposition 6.4 (C1 regularity), Proposition 7.6 (the case k<0), Proposition 5.6 and Lemmas 4.3, 4.4, 4.7 are not used by the goal's proof.
Infrastructure needed. Optional sampling for continuous-time super/submartingales with unbounded stopping times; hitting times of closed sets by continuous processes as stopping times of an augmented filtration; filtering for Brownian motion with a two-point drift; Itô's formula and Girsanov's theorem for the lemmas of §4–§7; existence of the value for Markovian Dynkin games. Each is reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome.
Selected references
T. De Angelis, F. Gensbittel, S. Villeneuve, A Dynkin Game on Assets with Incomplete Information on the Return, arXiv:1705.07352v4, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07352v4
E. Ekström, G. Peskir, Optimal stopping games for Markov processes, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 47, 684–702, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/060673916
S. C. P. Yam, S. P. Yung, W. Zhou, Game call options revisited, Mathematical Finance, 2012.
R. S. Liptser, A. N. Shiryaev, Statistics of Random Processes I: General Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2001.