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Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary ControlResearch Paper

Motivation

Open Markovian quantum systems with fast and full Hamiltonian control can be reduced to an equivalent control system on the standard simplex modelling the dynamics of the eigenvalues of the density matrix describing the quantum state. We explore this reduced control system for answering questions on reachability and stabilizability with immediate applications to the cooling of Markovian quantum systems. We show that for certain tasks of interest, the control Hamiltonian can be chosen time-independent. -- The reduction picture is an example of dissipative interconversion between equivalence classes of states, where the classes are induced by fast controls.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary Control (arXiv:2308.00561v1). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

61 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Theorem 4.7: Asymptotic cooling equals constant-Hamiltonian pure-state global attraction (Theorem 4.7: Asymptotic cooling equals constant-Hamiltonian pure-state global attraction, PDF p. 17). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Deferred results

11 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:

  • Theorem 2.4: Equivalence Theorem: A consistent full statement of Theorem 2.4: Equivalence Theorem (source-ambiguity)
  • Proposition 2.6: Lie saturate of the full system: A consistent full statement of Proposition 2.6: Lie saturate of the full system (source-ambiguity)
  • Proposition 3.2: Strong stabilization and compensating Hamiltonian: A consistent full statement of Proposition 3.2: Strong stabilization and compensating Hamiltonian (source-ambiguity)
  • Proposition 3.5: Eight criteria for viability of a face: A consistent full statement of Proposition 3.5: Eight criteria for viability of a face (source-ambiguity)
  • Lemma 4.11: Rank-d global attraction and non-enclosing lazy subspaces: A consistent full statement of Lemma 4.11: Rank-d global attraction and non-enclosing lazy subspaces (source-ambiguity)
  • Corollary 4.13: Non-enclosing lazy subspace criterion for direct reachability: A consistent full statement of Corollary 4.13: Non-enclosing lazy subspace criterion for direct reachability (source-ambiguity)
  • Proposition 4.19: Direct versus indirect face reachability: A consistent full statement of Proposition 4.19: Direct versus indirect face reachability (source-ambiguity)
  • Lemma C.3: Freedom of CP-generator representation: A consistent full statement of Lemma C.3: Freedom of CP-generator representation (source-ambiguity)
  • Lemma C.19: Attractive support via Hamiltonian control: A consistent full statement of Lemma C.19: Attractive support via Hamiltonian control (source-ambiguity)
  • Unnumbered reduced/full Lie-saturate relations: A consistent full statement of Unnumbered reduced/full Lie-saturate relations (source-ambiguity)
  • Unnumbered uniqueness of the Hamiltonian part: A consistent full statement of Unnumbered uniqueness of the Hamiltonian part (source-ambiguity)

Selected references

  • Reachability, Coolability, and Stabilizability of Open Markovian Quantum Systems with Fast Unitary Control, arXiv:2308.00561v1, https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00561v1
65 thms2 active usersReviewed
Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Operator-sum Representation for Bosonic Gaussian ChannelsResearch Paper

Motivation

Operator-sum or Kraus representations for single-mode Bosonic Gaussian channels are developed, and several of their consequences explored. Kraus operators are employed to bring out the manner in which the unphysical matrix transposition map when accompanied by injection of a threshold classical noise becomes a physical channel. The action of the quantum-limited attenuator and amplifier channels as simply scaling maps on suitable quasi-probabilities in phase space is examined in the Kraus picture. Consideration of cumulants is used to examine the issue of fixed points. In the cases of entanglement-breaking channels a description in terms of rank one Kraus operators is shown to emerge quite simply. In contradistinction, it is shown that there is not even one finite rank operator in the entire linear span of Kraus operators of the quantum-limited amplifier or attenuator families, an assertion far stronger than the statement that these are not entanglement breaking channels. A characterization of extremality in terms of Kraus operators, originally due to Choi, is employed to show that all quantum-limited Gaussian channels are extremal. The fact that every noisy Gaussian channel can be realised as product of a pair of quantum-limited channels is used to construct a discrete set of linearly independent Kraus operators for noisy Gaussian channels, including the classical noise channel, and these Kraus operators have a particularly simple structure.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Operator-sum Representation for Bosonic Gaussian Channels (arXiv:1012.4266v1). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

34 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is §III Eq.(3.11): explicit phase-conjugation Kraus family (§III Eq.(3.11): explicit phase-conjugation Kraus family, PDF p. 6). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Deferred results

36 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:

  • Paper headline / §II Eqs.(2.1)–(2.4): vacuum-dilation Kraus construction: vacuum dilation, infinite tensor embedding and nuclear partial trace (hard)
  • §II Eqs.(2.5)–(2.10): Hermite generating-function evaluation: normalized Hermite Fock–Schroedinger transform and canonical metaplectic matrix elements (hard)
  • §II Eq.(2.7): unrestricted nonsingular M reading: §II Eq.(2.7): unrestricted nonsingular M reading (source-ambiguity)
  • Theorem 4: invariant thermal state and attraction: Theorem 4: invariant thermal state and attraction (source-ambiguity)
  • Eqs.(3.30)–(3.35): phase-conjugator action on thermal states: thermal density, its exact parameter iteration, and local logarithmic characteristic derivatives (hard)
  • Theorem 6: attenuation scales the diagonal weight: distributional diagonal P weight and its connection to the actual B channel and Weyl law (hard)
  • §IV finite-support non-invariance sentence: §IV finite-support non-invariance sentence (source-ambiguity)
  • Interrupted attenuation: printed large-N coefficient: Interrupted attenuation: printed large-N coefficient (source-ambiguity)
  • Eqs.(6.7)–(6.10): A2 generalized measure-and-prepare representation: position spectral measure, normalized Hermite transport and A2 measure-and-prepare map (hard)
  • Theorem 12: A2 breaks nonclassicality and entanglement: concrete A2 spectral measure-and-prepare channel (hard)
  • §VI fixed-point remark: A2 has no invariant density: concrete A2 channel on all densities with its characteristic law (hard)
  • Eqs.(7.1),(7.8): random-displacement representation for B1: actual Weyl displacement Gaussian mixture and its normal-channel convex structure (hard)
  • Theorem 13: quantum-limited channels are extremal: convex set of all normal CPTP maps and Gaussian/metaplectic equivalence (hard)
  • §VIII remark: D(1) is bistochastic but not random unitary: all probability-measure random-unitary mixtures and a bounded-observable normal extension (hard)
  • §I/§VIII: only quantum-limited Gaussian channels are extremal: normal-CPTP convex decompositions and independent Gaussian quantum-limit predicate (hard)
  • Table I: full canonical composition table: all sixteen canonical composition classes, including singular A2 and metaplectic equivalence (hard)
  • Theorem 14: noisy decomposition and independent discrete Kraus families: noisy canonical Gaussian channels and exact two-factor identification (hard)
  • §IX: noisy A2 as a quantum-limited composite: noisy A2 canonical class and mixed continuous/discrete Kraus kernel (hard)
  • §IX: apparent B1 factorization obstruction: §IX: apparent B1 factorization obstruction (source-ambiguity)
  • Theorem 15: simultaneous diagonality of Kraus effects: Theorem 15: simultaneous diagonality of Kraus effects (source-ambiguity)
  • §IX error-correction remark: §IX error-correction remark (source-ambiguity)
  • Appendix: general pair composition including Gaussian unitary representatives: Gaussian characteristic action and exact metaplectic representative substitution (hard)
  • Appendix Table II: full noncanonical-pair classification: Appendix Table II: full noncanonical-pair classification (source-ambiguity)
  • Appendix: effect of noncanonical squeezing on noise: Appendix: effect of noncanonical squeezing on noise (source-ambiguity)
  • Gaussian dilation, CP conditions and Holevo classification [11,12,17–21,26,27]: Gaussian dilation, CP conditions and Holevo classification [11,12,17–21,26,27] (source-ambiguity)
  • Kraus representation and Stinespring dilation [28–31]: Kraus representation and Stinespring dilation [28–31] (source-ambiguity)
  • Entanglement breaking versus rank-one representations [35–37]: Entanglement breaking versus rank-one representations [35–37] (source-ambiguity)
  • Ordered quasiprobabilities, Laguerre identities, coherent-state representations [44–49]: Ordered quasiprobabilities, Laguerre identities, coherent-state representations [44–49] (source-ambiguity)
  • Amplification destroys Gaussian nonclassicality at κ≥√2 [41–43,57]: Amplification destroys Gaussian nonclassicality at κ≥√2 [41–43,57] (source-ambiguity)
  • Choi extremality criterion and proposed infinite-dimensional extension [30,62]: Choi extremality criterion and proposed infinite-dimensional extension [30,62] (source-ambiguity)
  • Bistochastic/random-unitary distinction [38,52,64]: Bistochastic/random-unitary distinction [38,52,64] (source-ambiguity)
  • Kraus-assisted classical error correction [39,40]: Kraus-assisted classical error correction [39,40] (source-ambiguity)
  • Mentioned classical/quantum capacity results [8–16]: Mentioned classical/quantum capacity results [8–16] (source-ambiguity)
  • Previously known EB/non-EB Gaussian facts [36,37]: Previously known EB/non-EB Gaussian facts [36,37] (source-ambiguity)
  • Mixed-basis Hermite integral evaluations [58,61]: Mixed-basis Hermite integral evaluations [58,61] (source-ambiguity)
  • Quantum Zeno effect [55]: Quantum Zeno effect [55] (source-ambiguity)

Selected references

  • Operator-sum Representation for Bosonic Gaussian Channels, arXiv:1012.4266v1, https://arxiv.org/abs/1012.4266v1
36 thms2 active usersReviewed
Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the themeResearch Paper

Motivation

The relative entropy of entanglement ERE_RER​ is defined as the distance of a multi-partite quantum state from the set of separable states as measured by the quantum relative entropy. We show that this optimisation is always achieved, i.e. any state admits a closest separable state, even in infinite dimensions; also, ERE_RER​ is everywhere lower semi-continuous. We use this to derive a dual variational expression for ERE_RER​ in terms of an external supremum instead of infimum. These results, which seem to have gone unnoticed so far, hold not only for the relative entropy of entanglement and its multi-partite generalisations, but also for many other similar resource quantifiers, such as the relative entropy of non-Gaussianity, of non-classicality, of Wigner negativity \unicode8212\unicode{8212}\unicode8212 more generally, all relative entropy distances from the sets of states with non-negative λ\lambdaλ-quasi-probability distribution. The crucial hypothesis underpinning all these applications is the weak*-closedness of the cone generated by free states, and for this reason the techniques we develop involve a bouquet of classical results from functional analysis. We complement our analysis by giving explicit and asymptotically tight continuity estimates for ERE_RER​ and closely related quantities in the presence of an energy constraint.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the theme (arXiv:2105.08091v3). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

10 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Theorem 5 (seed): attainability, lower semicontinuity, compactness and uniqueness (Theorem 5 (seed): attainability, lower semicontinuity, compactness and uniqueness, PDF p. 7). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Deferred results

29 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:

  • Theorem 9: dual variational formula for resource relative entropy: support-compressed exponential and log-partition (hard)
  • Lemma 11: Gibbs variational formula without faithfulness: log-partition at singular and zero positive trace-class operators (hard)
  • Lemma 13: duality for a weak*-compact convex subnormalised set: support-compressed log-partition and extended inner supremum (hard)
  • Remark 14: Petz dual formula without faithfulness: nonfaithful Petz log-partition functional (hard)
  • Corollary 20: bipartite relative entropy of entanglement: completed bipartite state space, closed-hull separability and log-partition (hard)
  • Corollary 22: weak*-closed cones for partition separability: partition-indexed completed tensor products and closed-hull pi-separability (hard)
  • Corollary 23: multipartite relative entropy of partition entanglement: multipartite pi-separable distance and log-partition (hard)
  • Lemma 24: weak*-closed PPT cone: partial transposition T(H_A tensor H_B) to B(H_A tensor H_B) (hard)
  • Corollary 25: relative entropy of NPT entanglement: PPT state space, extended distance and log-partition (hard)
  • Lemma 30: photon-number attenuation preserves lambda positivity: concrete Weyl representation, lambda-positive states and number attenuation (hard)
  • Corollary 31: weak*-closed lambda-positive cone: lambda-positive cone on the actual m-mode Hilbert space (hard)
  • Corollary 32: relative entropy of lambda negativity: lambda-positive distance and support-compressed dual formula (hard)
  • Lemma 33 (cited): quantum Darmois–Skitovich characterisation as printed: a corrected quantum Darmois-Skitovich statement and unitary beam splitter (source-ambiguity)
  • Lemma 34: weak*-closed cone of Gaussian states: all displaced m-mode Gaussian states as actual trace-class states (hard)
  • Corollary 35: attainability and lower semicontinuity of non-Gaussianity: Gaussian-state set, Gaussification and moment-defined entropy identity (hard)
  • Unnumbered consequence after Corollary 35: entropy of Gaussification: actual Gaussification on the finite-number-energy state set (hard)
  • Unnumbered result (124): finite-local-dimension continuity bounds: six bipartite entanglement measures and tensor-power regularizations (hard)
  • Proposition 36: bipartite energy continuity estimates (125),(127): all six resource measures, energy moduli and oscillator specialization (hard)
  • Proposition 36: generic-G asymptotic-tightness clause: a valid hypothesis set for generic-G asymptotic tightness (source-ambiguity)
  • Remark 37: faithfulness of the bipartite continuity modulus: the source-admissible G and actual generalized-inverse continuity modulus (hard)
  • Corollary 38: uniform and asymptotic continuity of six bipartite measures: six bipartite measures on correlated n-copy states and additive energy (hard)
  • Unnumbered multipartite entropy upper bounds (149),(150), proved in Appendix C: multipartite marginals and extended local entropy upper bounds (hard)
  • Unnumbered result (151): finite-dimensional multipartite continuity: partition separability, one unrestricted final factor and singleton-only regularization (hard)
  • Proposition 39: multipartite energy continuity estimates (155)–(157): multipartite energy budgets and the complete three continuity moduli (hard)
  • Proposition 39: asymptotic-tightness clause for m=2: partition-restricted large-energy tightness (source-ambiguity)
  • Remark 40: faithfulness of multipartite continuity moduli: the actual H[s] entropy capacity and multipartite moduli (hard)
  • Corollary 41: uniform and asymptotic multipartite continuity: grouped multipartite copies, additive local energies and partition measures (hard)
  • Lemma 43: infinite-dimensional Lieb three-operator inequality: support-compressed exponential of log A+log B-log C (hard)
  • Lemma 44: countably decomposable separable approximation to a pure state: actual countable pure-product mixture with all prescribed marginals (hard)

Selected references

  • Attainability and lower semi-continuity of the relative entropy of entanglement, and variations on the theme, arXiv:2105.08091v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08091v3
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Comparison of Quantum Channels by SuperchannelsResearch Paper

Motivation

We extend the definition of the conditional min-entropy from bipartite quantum states to bipartite quantum channels. We show that many of the properties of the conditional min-entropy carry over to the extended version, including an operational interpretation as a guessing probability when one of the subsystems is classical. We then show that the extended conditional min-entropy can be used to fully characterize when two bipartite quantum channels are related to each other via a superchannel (also known as supermap or a comb) that is acting on one of the subsystems. This relation is a pre-order that extends the definition of "quantum majorization" from bipartite states to bipartite channels, and can also be characterized with semidefinite programming. As a special case, our characterization provides necessary and sufficient conditions for when a set of quantum channels is related to another set of channels via a single superchannel. We discuss the applications of our results to channel discrimination, and to resource theories of quantum processes. Along the way we study channel divergences, entropy functions of quantum channels, and noise models of superchannels, including random unitary superchannels, and doubly-stochastic superchannels. For the latter we give a physical meaning as being completely-uniformity preserving.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Comparison of Quantum Channels by Superchannels (arXiv:1808.02607v3). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

21 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Quantum majorization of channels by all paired entropy tests (Theorem 7, continued p.19, PDF p. 18). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Selected references

  • Comparison of Quantum Channels by Superchannels, arXiv:1808.02607v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02607v3
25 thms2 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Two-Sided Platform Competition in a Sharing Economy: Which Wage Scheme Maximizes Platform Profit Is Decided by Demand- versus Supply-Side CompetitionResearch Paper

Motivation

Sharing-economy platforms (ride-sharing, car-sharing, peer-to-peer lending) sit between two groups. They charge consumers a price and pay self-scheduling workers a wage, and they compete with rival platforms on both sides at once. How a platform pays its workers is a design choice that varies across the industry: some announce a fixed wage per job, some a fixed commission rate on the consumer price, and some, as Uber did in its "upfront pricing" experiments, set prices and wages job by job. Drivers and regulators have argued over these schemes, and whether the choice matters for the platforms' own profits is a question in its own right.

Zhang, Chen and Raghunathan (SSRN 3555993, published in Management Science, 2022) answer it in a parsimonious duopoly model with linear demand and supply. Their main comparison, Proposition 3, shows that every scheme can be the most profitable one. Which one wins depends on whether consumers or workers switch more readily between the platforms. Many two-sided platform models, for example ones in which supply does not respond to the rival's wage, find no such reversal.

Setting

Two platforms i∈{1,2}i \in \{1,2\}i∈{1,2}, with iˉ=3−i\bar i = 3-iiˉ=3−i, charge consumer prices pip_ipi​ and pay wages wiw_iwi​ per transaction. Six parameters a,b,c,k,l,m>0a, b, c, k, l, m > 0a,b,c,k,l,m>0 define

di=a−b(pi−piˉ)−c pi,si=−k+l(wi−wiˉ)+m wi,d_i = a - b(p_i - p_{\bar i}) - c\,p_i, \qquad s_i = -k + l(w_i - w_{\bar i}) + m\,w_i,di​=a−b(pi​−piˉ​)−cpi​,si​=−k+l(wi​−wiˉ​)+mwi​,

the demand and the worker supply of platform iii. Here bbb measures how readily consumers switch platforms, ccc the price sensitivity of loyal consumers, lll how readily workers switch, and mmm the wage sensitivity of loyal workers. A transaction needs both a consumer and a worker, so the transaction volume is max⁡{0,min⁡{di,si}}\max\{0,\min\{d_i,s_i\}\}max{0,min{di​,si​}} and the profit is

πi=(pi−wi) max⁡{0,min⁡{di,si}}.\pi_i = (p_i - w_i)\,\max\{0,\min\{d_i, s_i\}\}.πi​=(pi​−wi​)max{0,min{di​,si​}}.

The standing assumptions are Assumption 1, a/c>k/ma/c > k/ma/c>k/m, and Assumption 2, l≤2c+c2/bl \le 2c + c^2/bl≤2c+c2/b.

Three wage schemes define three games:

  1. DCR (dynamic commission rate). The platforms simultaneously choose a price pip_ipi​ and a commission rate αi\alpha_iαi​. The wage is wi=(1−αi)piw_i = (1-\alpha_i)p_iwi​=(1−αi​)pi​, so profit is αipimax⁡{0,min⁡{di,si}}\alpha_i p_i \max\{0,\min\{d_i,s_i\}\}αi​pi​max{0,min{di​,si​}}.
  2. FCR (fixed commission rate). The platforms first announce commission rates αi\alpha_iαi​, then, having observed both, set prices.
  3. FW (fixed wage). The platforms first announce wages wiw_iwi​, then set prices.

DCR is solved by Nash equilibrium. FCR and FW are solved by subgame-perfect equilibrium: a stage-2 price rule must give a Nash equilibrium of the pricing game after every pair of stage-1 announcements, and no stage-1 announcement may be improved on. The paper studies symmetric equilibria with positive demand and supply. Write πD∗,πF∗,πW∗\pi^{D*}, \pi^{F*}, \pi^{W*}πD∗,πF∗,πW∗ for the resulting platform profits.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

Write αD∗\alpha^{D*}αD∗ for the DCR equilibrium commission rate and

Q=b+c+l+m(b+c)(l+m)αD∗−b+(1−αD∗)l(1−αD∗)(cl−bm)Q = \frac{b+c+l+m}{(b+c)(l+m)\alpha^{D*}} - \frac{b + (1-\alpha^{D*})l}{(1-\alpha^{D*})(cl-bm)}Q=(b+c)(l+m)αD∗b+c+l+m​−(1−αD∗)(cl−bm)b+(1−αD∗)l​

for the left side of the paper's Inequality (13). For every symmetric equilibrium of each game with positive demand and supply:

(a)  bc>lm⟹ πW∗>πF∗>πD∗,(b)  bc<lm, Q>0⟹ πF∗>πD∗>πW∗,(c)  bc<lm, Q<0⟹ πD∗>πF∗>πW∗.\begin{aligned} &\text{(a)}\ \ \tfrac{b}{c} > \tfrac{l}{m} &&\Longrightarrow\ \pi^{W*} > \pi^{F*} > \pi^{D*},\\ &\text{(b)}\ \ \tfrac{b}{c} < \tfrac{l}{m},\ Q > 0 &&\Longrightarrow\ \pi^{F*} > \pi^{D*} > \pi^{W*},\\ &\text{(c)}\ \ \tfrac{b}{c} < \tfrac{l}{m},\ Q < 0 &&\Longrightarrow\ \pi^{D*} > \pi^{F*} > \pi^{W*}. \end{aligned}​(a)  cb​>ml​(b)  cb​<ml​, Q>0(c)  cb​<ml​, Q<0​​⟹ πW∗>πF∗>πD∗,⟹ πF∗>πD∗>πW∗,⟹ πD∗>πF∗>πW∗.​

The goal is stated about the equilibria of the three games, not about the closed-form prices.

Milestones

  • Lemma 1 (p. 10): the DCR game has exactly one symmetric equilibrium with positive demand and supply, given by the closed forms (4) and (5), and 0<αD∗<10 < \alpha^{D*} < 10<αD∗<1.
  • Lemma 2 (p. 11): the FCR equilibrium commission rate is the unique zero in (αˉ,1)(\bar\alpha, 1)(αˉ,1) of the quadratic fff of (44), equivalently the solution of (6). The price is (a+k)/(c+m(1−α∗))(a+k)/(c + m(1-\alpha^*))(a+k)/(c+m(1−α∗)), (7).
  • Lemma 3 (p. 12): the FW equilibrium wage and price are (8) and (9).
  • Profit increases in price (A.8, p. 52): with demand equal to supply, profit is a concave quadratic in the equilibrium price. All three equilibrium prices lie on its increasing branch.
  • Three price comparisons (A.8, pp. 52–53):
    • pW∗−pD∗p^{W*} - p^{D*}pW∗−pD∗ has the sign of bm−clbm - clbm−cl;
    • αD∗<αF∗\alpha^{D*} < \alpha^{F*}αD∗<αF∗ if and only if (13) holds;
    • αW∗<αF∗\alpha^{W*} < \alpha^{F*}αW∗<αF∗ if and only if cl>bmcl > bmcl>bm.

Significance

Proposition 3 makes the choice of wage scheme a substantive strategic variable. The fixed-wage scheme is either the best or the worst for the platforms, and the fixed-commission scheme is never the worst. The ranking of profits equals the ranking of equilibrium prices and reverses that of wages. The paper's welfare results (Propositions 4 and 5) build on it, since consumer and worker surplus orderings are read off the same price ranking.

Formalizing it adds three things:

  • A checked equilibrium analysis. The appendix's equilibrium analysis is partly written out and partly asserted ("we can verify that neither platform has incentive to deviate").
  • Corrected statements. The printed comparisons contain slips; see Formalization scope.
  • A model for later work. The definitions give a reusable formal model of two-stage price competition with endogenous two-sided supply.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked.

Difficulty

The comparison itself, once the equilibria are known, is rational-function algebra. The difficulty is the equilibrium characterizations.

  • The payoff is kinked. Profit is a product of a margin and a minimum of demand and supply, so each best response must be analysed region by region: supply exceeding demand, matching it, or falling short.
  • FCR and FW need the whole subgame. Their stage-2 pricing games must be solved after every pair of announcements, including off-path pairs in which a rival's supply is non-positive.
  • Local optimality is not enough. The obvious argument, setting the derivative of the stage-1 profit to zero along the matched-supply branch, gives only a necessary condition. Existence needs global deviations ruled out, in particular a platform raising its wage enough that its own supply exceeds demand. That is exactly where Assumption 2 enters.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters. All six parameters are reals and strictly positive (R+\mathbb R^+R+ read as >0>0>0). Assumptions 1 and 2 are bundled in Params.Standing.
  • Strategies.
    • Actions range over all of R\mathbb RR: prices, commission rates and wages alike. No bound such as 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1 is imposed.
    • DCR actions are pairs (price, commission rate).
    • A two-stage profile is a pair of stage-1 actions together with stage-2 price rules Pi:R2→RP_i : \mathbb R^2 \to \mathbb RPi​:R2→R. "Symmetric" means equal stage-1 actions and equal on-path prices; off-path play is unrestricted.
  • Truncated volume. The paper writes the volume as min⁡{di,si}\min\{d_i,s_i\}min{di​,si​}. With negative values allowed, the profit is unbounded above and no equilibrium exists, so the formalization uses max⁡{0,min⁡{di,si}}\max\{0,\min\{d_i,s_i\}\}max{0,min{di​,si​}}.
  • Non-trivial equilibria. Equilibria are required to have positive demand and supply on the path (p. 9). Zero-volume symmetric equilibria exist and are excluded.
  • Continuity on the path. Two-stage equilibria are required to have stage-2 price rules continuous at the equilibrium stage-1 pair. The appendix presupposes this when it differentiates the subgame prices in the stage-1 actions. It is necessary: without it, zero-profit equilibria of nearby pricing subgames can punish every deviation, and other FCR commission rates become subgame-perfect outcomes.
  • Corrections to the printed statements.
    • Case (c). It is stated with "Q<0Q < 0Q<0" where the paper says "(13) does not hold". At Q=0Q = 0Q=0 the DCR and FCR outcomes coincide and the strict ranking fails.
    • αW∗\alpha^{W*}αW∗. It is defined as 1−wW∗/pW∗1 - w^{W*}/p^{W*}1−wW∗/pW∗, because the appendix's displayed closed form has the sign of kkk reversed.
    • Denominators. Real divisions occur in (6) and (13), and their denominators are carried or proved nonzero.

A formalization that compares only the closed-form prices, or uses the literal untruncated payoff (which makes every statement about equilibria vacuous), is not this mission.

  • Contributions welcome:
    • best-response lemmas for the kinked profit;
    • existence of pricing equilibria in every subgame;
    • the global no-deviation arguments behind Lemmas 2 and 3;
    • the algebra of the price comparisons.

Selected references

  • C. Zhang, J. Chen, S. Raghunathan, Two-Sided Platform Competition in a Sharing Economy, SSRN working paper 3555993; published in Management Science, 2022. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3555993, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4302
  • D. M. Kreps, J. A. Scheinkman, Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes, Bell Journal of Economics 14(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003636
  • S. C. Choi, Price Competition in a Channel Structure with a Common Retailer, Marketing Science 10(4), 271–296, 1991, the source the paper cites for its linear demand model (p. 7). https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.10.4.271
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Graph TheoryQuantum Error CorrectionQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

Decoding Quantum Tanner Codes: The Parallel Decoder Corrects Every Error of Weight Linear in the Code Length in Logarithmically Many RoundsResearch Paper

Why decoding good quantum LDPC codes matters

Quantum computers must correct errors faster than they accumulate, and quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes are the leading candidates for doing so with little overhead: every check involves a bounded number of qubits, so syndromes can be measured by local circuits. In 2021–2022 the first asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes appeared, with dimension and minimum distance both linear in the code length nnn: the expander lifted product codes of Panteleev and Kalachev (arXiv:2111.03654) and the quantum Tanner codes of Leverrier and Zémor (arXiv:2202.13641). A code is only useful if errors can be corrected efficiently. Leverrier and Zémor (arXiv:2208.05537) give two decoders for quantum Tanner codes that correct every error of weight up to a constant fraction of nnn: a sequential one running in linear time, and a parallel decoder running in a logarithmic number of rounds of local updates. This mission is about the parallel decoder.

Timeline:

  • 2021, Panteleev–Kalachev: asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes and locally testable classical codes (arXiv:2111.03654).
  • 2022, Leverrier–Zémor: quantum Tanner codes, a simpler construction on left-right Cayley complexes (arXiv:2202.13641).
  • 2022, Gu–Pattison–Tang, Leverrier–Zémor and Dinur–Hsieh–Lin–Vidick: efficient decoders for linear-distance quantum LDPC codes (arXiv:2206.06557, arXiv:2206.07571, arXiv:2206.07750).
  • 2022, Leverrier–Zémor, Decoding quantum Tanner codes: sequential and parallel decoders up to a constant fraction of nnn, with a revised parallel analysis in v3 (arXiv:2208.05537v3).

The code and the decoder

Let GGG be a finite group and A=A−1A=A^{-1}A=A−1, B=B−1⊆GB=B^{-1}\subseteq GB=B−1⊆G with ∣A∣=∣B∣=Δ|A|=|B|=\Delta∣A∣=∣B∣=Δ. The quadripartite left-right Cayley complex has four copies of GGG as vertices, Vij=G×{ij}V_{ij}=G\times\{ij\}Vij​=G×{ij}, and one square {(g,00),(ag,01),(gb,10),(agb,11)}\{(g,00),(ag,01),(gb,10),(agb,11)\}{(g,00),(ag,01),(gb,10),(agb,11)} for every (g,a,b)∈G×A×B(g,a,b)\in G\times A\times B(g,a,b)∈G×A×B. The set of squares QQQ has n=∣G∣Δ2n=|G|\Delta^2n=∣G∣Δ2 elements, and every vertex vvv sees its QQQ-neighbourhood Q(v)Q(v)Q(v) as an A×BA\times BA×B array: columns are indexed by bbb, rows by aaa. The left Cayley graph Cay(G,A)\mathrm{Cay}(G,A)Cay(G,A) and the right Cayley graph Cay(G,B)\mathrm{Cay}(G,B)Cay(G,B) are assumed to be non-bipartite Ramanujan graphs: every adjacency eigenvalue other than ±Δ\pm\Delta±Δ has absolute value at most 2Δ−12\sqrt{\Delta-1}2Δ−1​.

Two local codes CA⊆F2AC_A\subseteq\mathbb F_2^ACA​⊆F2A​, CB⊆F2BC_B\subseteq\mathbb F_2^BCB​⊆F2B​ with dim⁡CA+dim⁡CB=Δ\dim C_A+\dim C_B=\DeltadimCA​+dimCB​=Δ are fixed. Write V0=V00∪V11V_0=V_{00}\cup V_{11}V0​=V00​∪V11​ and V1=V01∪V10V_1=V_{01}\cup V_{10}V1​=V01​∪V10​. The code C1⊆F2Q\mathcal C_1\subseteq\mathbb F_2^QC1​⊆F2Q​ consists of the vectors whose view on every Q(v)Q(v)Q(v), v∈V1v\in V_1v∈V1​, lies in the dual tensor code CA⊗F2B+F2A⊗CBC_A\otimes\mathbb F_2^B+\mathbb F_2^A\otimes C_BCA​⊗F2B​+F2A​⊗CB​: every local view is a sum of a word whose columns are in CAC_ACA​ and a word whose rows are in CBC_BCB​. C0\mathcal C_0C0​ is defined in the same way on V0V_0V0​ with CA⊥C_A^\perpCA⊥​, CB⊥C_B^\perpCB⊥​. The local codes and their duals have distance at least δΔ\delta\DeltaδΔ. Both dual tensor codes are κ\kappaκ-product-expanding: every codeword xxx splits as x=c+rx=c+rx=c+r with ∣x∣≥κΔ(∥c∥+∥r∥)|x|\ge\kappa\Delta(\|c\|+\|r\|)∣x∣≥κΔ(∥c∥+∥r∥), where ∥c∥\|c\|∥c∥ counts non-zero columns and ∥r∥\|r\|∥r∥ non-zero rows.

A σx\sigma_xσx​-type error e∈F2Qe\in\mathbb F_2^Qe∈F2Q​ is decoded in three phases. In the preprocessing phase every v∈V1v\in V_1v∈V1​ chooses a minimum-weight local error εv\varepsilon_vεv​ with the local syndrome of eee; the mismatch is Z=∑v∈V1εvZ=\sum_{v\in V_1}\varepsilon_vZ=∑v∈V1​​εv​. The mismatch decomposition writes Z=C^0+R^0+C^1+R^1Z=\hat C_0+\hat R_0+\hat C_1+\hat R_1Z=C^0​+R^0​+C^1​+R^1​, with C^j\hat C_jC^j​ a sum of CAC_ACA​-columns and R^i\hat R_iR^i​ a sum of CBC_BCB​-rows. Postprocessing outputs e^=∑v∈V10εv+C^0+R^1\hat e=\sum_{v\in V_{10}}\varepsilon_v+\hat C_0+\hat R_1e^=∑v∈V10​​εv​+C^0​+R^1​. The parallel decoder (Algorithm 3) runs rounds of four substeps, one for each of V00,V01,V10,V11V_{00},V_{01},V_{10},V_{11}V00​,V01​,V10​,V11​. In a substep, every vertex vvv of the current class simultaneously looks for a non-zero local dual tensor codeword xvx_vxv​ on Q(v)Q(v)Q(v) with ∣Z^∣−∣Z^+xv∣≥∣xv∣/2|\hat Z|-|\hat Z+x_v|\ge|x_v|/2∣Z^∣−∣Z^+xv​∣≥∣xv​∣/2, picks one of maximum weight, splits it as cv+rvc_v+r_vcv​+rv​ with ∥cv∥+∥rv∥\|c_v\|+\|r_v\|∥cv​∥+∥rv​∥ minimal, and updates C^j\hat C_jC^j​, R^i\hat R_iR^i​ and Z^\hat ZZ^.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 20 (= Theorem 3)

Fix ε∈(0,1/6)\varepsilon\in(0,1/6)ε∈(0,1/6) and δ,κ>0\delta,\kappa>0δ,κ>0. For all Δ\DeltaΔ large enough, every error with

∣e∣<1212min⁡(ε316,κ4)δ2κ2nΔ|e|<\frac1{2^{12}}\min\Big(\frac{\varepsilon^3}{16},\frac\kappa4\Big)\delta^2\kappa^2\frac n\Delta∣e∣<2121​min(16ε3​,4κ​)δ2κ2Δn​

is corrected by every run of the parallel decoder. With θ=14(14−32ε)\theta=\frac14\big(\frac14-\frac32\varepsilon\big)θ=41​(41​−23​ε), each round satisfies ∣Z^k+1∣≤(1−θ)∣Z^k∣|\hat Z_{k+1}|\le(1-\theta)|\hat Z_k|∣Z^k+1​∣≤(1−θ)∣Z^k​∣, so Z^k=0\hat Z_k=0Z^k​=0 once (1−θ)k⋅4∣e∣<1(1-\theta)^k\cdot4|e|<1(1−θ)k⋅4∣e∣<1, and then e+e^e+\hat ee+e^ lies in the span C0⊥\mathcal C_0^\perpC0⊥​ of the σx\sigma_xσx​-generators.

Milestones

  • Lemma 4 (expander mixing) and Lemma 5: λ(G0□),λ(G1□)≤4Δ\lambda(\mathcal G^\square_0),\lambda(\mathcal G^\square_1)\le4\Deltaλ(G0□​),λ(G1□​)≤4Δ.
  • Lemmas 7, 10, 11, 8 and Theorem 9: the minimum distance, dmin⁡≥δ2κ2n/(1024Δ)d_{\min}\ge\delta^2\kappa^2n/(1024\Delta)dmin​≥δ2κ2n/(1024Δ).
  • Lemmas 14, 15, 16 and Theorem 12: if a minimum decomposition of a non-zero mismatch has few active vertices, some local codeword lowers ∣Z∣|Z|∣Z∣ by (1−ε)∣xv∣(1-\varepsilon)|x_v|(1−ε)∣xv​∣.
  • Lemma 17: ∣Z∣≤4∣e∣|Z|\le4|e|∣Z∣≤4∣e∣ and ∥Z∥≤4∣e∣/(κΔ)\|Z\|\le4|e|/(\kappa\Delta)∥Z∥≤4∣e∣/(κΔ).
  • Lemma 19: below 2−16ε3κ2δ2n/Δ2^{-16}\varepsilon^3\kappa^2\delta^2n/\Delta2−16ε3κ2δ2n/Δ, sequential decoding with parameter 1/21/21/2 never stalls, and switching to ε\varepsilonε still converges.
  • Lemma 18: if the ε\varepsilonε-sequential decoder converges, one parallel round removes at least θ∣Z∣\theta|Z|θ∣Z∣.

Significance

The theorem shows that asymptotically good quantum LDPC codes can be decoded against adversarial errors of linear weight by O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) rounds of local computation, each vertex acting only on its own QQQ-neighbourhood. This matters for fault tolerance, where decoding latency is a bottleneck. The milestones carry independent value. Theorem 9 is a linear minimum distance bound for quantum Tanner codes in the quadripartite setting. Theorem 12 is the local-to-global "weight reduction" principle on which both decoders rest. Lemmas 4–5 are spectral facts about Cayley graphs and square complexes that are reusable for any expander-based code.

The paper's results are proved, not open; none has been machine-checked. The sequential decoder's correctness (Theorem 13) is posed separately on the platform as an open goal in the mission Decoding quantum Tanner codes (Leverrier, Zemor), which shares this mission's published definitions; this mission does not restate it. Formalizing the present chain would give a complete, checked proof that a parallel decoder exists for good quantum LDPC codes, and would expose the constants. Two printed constants are corrected here (see the scope section), and sharper constants or simpler arguments are welcome.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to bound the mismatch and its norm, apply Theorem 12 repeatedly, and let all vertices of a class flip at once. That argument fails because parallel flips are not sequential flips. A vertex's best local move against the mismatch at its turn need not be the move a converging sequential run would make, and a round could stall even though a sequential run never does. Lemma 18 resolves this with a virtual sequential run, a partition of its increments into "good" and "bad" ones (Claim 1), and the maximum-weight rule at every vertex. Without that rule the lemma is false. Theorem 12 itself is a counting contradiction. It uses robustness, the expander mixing lemma twice, and two notions of "exceptional" vertices, and it needs Δ\DeltaΔ large. Theorem 9 needs the coset-minimization of Lemma 7 before the same counting can start.

Formalization scope

The development builds on the published layers QAlgorithms_Defs_TensorCode and QAlgorithms_Defs_TannerDecoder. These define the complex, φv\varphi_vφv​, C0\mathcal C_0C0​, C1\mathcal C_1C1​, the σx\sigma_xσx​ span, minimum local corrections, the mismatch, Algorithm 2 and the output e^\hat ee^. The conventions are:

  • A vertex (g,ij)(g,ij)(g,ij) is (g, (i, j)) : G × (Bool × Bool), squares are G × A × B, and weights are hammingNorm cast to ℝ.
  • One new definitions file holds Algorithm 3 (admissible move, parallel choice, substep, round, run), decompositions and their norm, active, exceptional and ordinary vertices, the clustering sets TTT, stalled and converging sequential decoders, C1⊥\mathcal C_1^\perpC1⊥​, and the square graphs Gk□\mathcal G^\square_kGk□​.
  • "Δ\DeltaΔ large enough" is ∃Δ0 ∀Δ≥Δ0\exists\Delta_0\,\forall\Delta\ge\Delta_0∃Δ0​∀Δ≥Δ0​, with Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​ depending only on the constants fixed before it.
  • Only σx\sigma_xσx​-type errors are treated; the σz\sigma_zσz​ case is symmetric.
  • Non-bipartiteness of the Cayley graphs (the standing choice of p. 10) is assumed wherever spectral bounds are used.
  • Theorem 12 assumes Z≠0Z\ne0Z=0 and asks for a non-zero xvx_vxv​.

Corrected constants. Theorem 9 is stated with 102410241024 instead of the printed 256256256, because Lemma 8 and the proof's ∣x∣≥κΔ2∥x∥|x|\ge\frac{\kappa\Delta}2\|x\|∣x∣≥2κΔ​∥x∥ give 102410241024. The goal's error bound uses min⁡(ε3/16,κ/4)\min(\varepsilon^3/16,\kappa/4)min(ε3/16,κ/4) instead of min⁡(ε3/16,κ)\min(\varepsilon^3/16,\kappa)min(ε3/16,κ), which is what the corrected distance supports. Both corrected statements are weaker than the printed ones.

No trivialization. Every vertex must flip a maximum-weight admissible move whenever one exists, and runs range over all such choices. "Logarithmic time" is the per-round contraction factor, not mere eventual termination. Validity is membership of e+e^e+\hat ee+e^ in the σx\sigma_xσx​-generator span, with e^\hat ee^ the paper's postprocessing output. A formalization that lets vertices idle, drops the maximum-weight rule, or proves only eventual termination does not prove this theorem.

Needed and reusable infrastructure:

  • spectral graph theory for regular multigraphs (expander mixing, eigenvalues of commuting Cayley adjacencies);
  • product expansion and local minimality of decompositions;
  • the combinatorics of the left-right complex (shared rows and columns).

Contributions proving the graph lemmas or Lemma 18, whose proof is pure counting, are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Leverrier, G. Zémor, Decoding quantum Tanner codes, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory; arXiv:2208.05537v3, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.05537
  • A. Leverrier, G. Zémor, Quantum Tanner codes, FOCS 2022; arXiv:2202.13641. https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.13641
  • P. Panteleev, G. Kalachev, Asymptotically good quantum and locally testable classical LDPC codes, STOC 2022; arXiv:2111.03654. https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.03654
  • S. Gu, C. A. Pattison, E. Tang, An efficient decoder for a linear distance quantum LDPC code, STOC 2023; arXiv:2206.06557. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.06557
  • A. Leverrier, G. Zémor, Efficient decoding up to a constant fraction of the code length for asymptotically good quantum codes, SODA 2023; arXiv:2206.07571. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07571
  • I. Dinur, M.-H. Hsieh, T.-C. Lin, T. Vidick, Good quantum LDPC codes with linear time decoders, arXiv:2206.07750, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07750
  • G. Kalachev, P. Panteleev, Two-sided robustly testable codes, arXiv:2206.09973, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.09973
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Machine LearningOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Learning Under Approximate Sparsity with Applications to Nonsmooth Estimation and Regularized Neural Networks: Excess-Risk Bounds at S3ONC Solutions of MCP-Regularized M-EstimationResearch Paper

Motivation

High-dimensional statistical learning (HDSL) fits a model with ppp parameters from nnn samples when ppp may far exceed nnn. The standard guarantees for sparse estimators, such as the Lasso, rest on restricted strong convexity (RSC) or restricted eigenvalue conditions on the empirical risk (Negahban et al., 2012; Loh & Wainwright, 2015). These conditions fail or are hard to verify for many losses that matter in operations research and machine learning: nonsmooth losses, losses of neural networks, and M-estimation problems whose population risk is not strongly convex near any sparse vector.

Liu, Ye and Lee (arXiv:1903.00616v2; Operations Research, 2022) remove RSC entirely. They regularize the empirical risk with a folded concave penalty, the minimax concave penalty (MCP) of Zhang (2010), and analyse not a global minimizer (intractable, since the problem is nonconvex) but any point satisfying a weak second-order stationarity condition. They also replace exact sparsity by approximate sparsity: the best sparse vector need only be εA\varepsilon_AεA​-optimal for the population risk. Their main result, Theorem 1, gives an excess-risk bound whose sample complexity is poly-logarithmic in ppp.

Setting

Observations Z1,…,ZnZ_1, \dots, Z_nZ1​,…,Zn​ are i.i.d. copies of a random element ZZZ of a measurable space W\mathcal WW. A loss L(β,z)L(\beta, z)L(β,z), with parameter β∈Rp\beta \in \mathbb R^pβ∈Rp, defines the population risk L(β)=E[L(β,Z)]\mathbb L(\beta) = \mathbb E[L(\beta, Z)]L(β)=E[L(β,Z)], assumed finite for every β\betaβ and bounded below, the empirical risk Ln(β)=1n∑iL(β,Zi)\mathcal L_n(\beta) = \frac1n\sum_i L(\beta, Z_i)Ln​(β)=n1​∑i​L(β,Zi​), and the regularized objective

Ln,λ(β)=Ln(β)+∑j=1pPλ(∣βj∣),Pλ(θ)=∫0θ[aλ−t]+a dt,\mathcal L_{n,\lambda}(\beta) = \mathcal L_n(\beta) + \sum_{j=1}^p P_\lambda(|\beta_j|), \qquad P_\lambda(\theta) = \int_0^\theta \frac{[a\lambda - t]_+}{a}\,dt,Ln,λ​(β)=Ln​(β)+j=1∑p​Pλ​(∣βj​∣),Pλ​(θ)=∫0θ​a[aλ−t]+​​dt,

with tuning parameters a,λ>0a, \lambda > 0a,λ>0. Norms: ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is Euclidean, ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣ is ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​, ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ is the max norm and ∥⋅∥0\|\cdot\|_0∥⋅∥0​ counts nonzero entries.

The standing assumptions are:

  • smoothness (11): each partial derivative ∂L/∂βj\partial L/\partial\beta_j∂L/∂βj​ is ULU_LUL​-Lipschitz along coordinate jjj, for almost every zzz;
  • Assumption 3: the centred losses L(β,Zi)−EL(β,Zi)L(\beta, Z_i) - \mathbb E L(\beta, Z_i)L(β,Zi​)−EL(β,Zi​) are sub-exponential with ψ1\psi_1ψ1​-norm at most σ≥1\sigma \ge 1σ≥1 on the box ∥β∥∞≤R\|\beta\|_\infty \le R∥β∥∞​≤R;
  • Assumption 4: L(⋅,z)L(\cdot, z)L(⋅,z) is C(z)\mathcal C(z)C(z)-Lipschitz on the box, where C(Zi)\mathcal C(Z_i)C(Zi​) is sub-exponential around its mean (ψ1\psi_1ψ1​-norm at most σL≥1\sigma_L \ge 1σL​≥1) and E C(Zi)≤Cμ\mathbb E\,\mathcal C(Z_i) \le \mathcal C_\muEC(Zi​)≤Cμ​, Cμ≥1\mathcal C_\mu \ge 1Cμ​≥1;
  • Assumption 1 (A-sparsity): some βεA∗\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}βεA​∗​ with ∥βεA∗∥∞≤R\|\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}\|_\infty \le R∥βεA​∗​∥∞​≤R, R≥1R \ge 1R≥1, and s=∥βεA∗∥0>1s = \|\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}\|_0 > 1s=∥βεA​∗​∥0​>1 nonzero entries satisfies L(βεA∗)−inf⁡βL(β)≤εA\mathbb L(\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}) - \inf_\beta \mathbb L(\beta) \le \varepsilon_AL(βεA​∗​)−infβ​L(β)≤εA​. Assumption 2 replaces inf⁡βL\inf_\beta \mathbb Linfβ​L by any lower bound Lg∗L^*_gLg∗​.

A vector β^\hat\betaβ^​ satisfies the S³ONC (significant subspace second-order necessary conditions, Definition 1) at a sample if it is a KKT point of Ln,λ\mathcal L_{n,\lambda}Ln,λ​, with subgradients κj∈∂∣β^j∣\kappa_j \in \partial|\hat\beta_j|κj​∈∂∣β^​j​∣, and UL+Pλ′′(∣β^j∣)≥0U_L + P''_\lambda(|\hat\beta_j|) \ge 0UL​+Pλ′′​(∣β^​j​∣)≥0 whenever ∣β^j∣∈(0,aλ)|\hat\beta_j| \in (0, a\lambda)∣β^​j​∣∈(0,aλ). With ζ~=ln⁡(3eR(σL+Cμ))\tilde\zeta = \ln(3eR(\sigma_L + \mathcal C_\mu))ζ~​=ln(3eR(σL​+Cμ​)), Theorem 1 fixes λ=8σ/(can2/3) [ln⁡(n2/3p)+ζ~]\lambda = \sqrt{8\sigma/(c a n^{2/3})\,[\ln(n^{2/3}p) + \tilde\zeta]}λ=8σ/(can2/3)[ln(n2/3p)+ζ~​]​, where c∈(0,1/2]c \in (0, 1/2]c∈(0,1/2] is the constant of the Bernstein inequality (12).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 18)

For a<min⁡{1/UL,1}a < \min\{1/U_L, 1\}a<min{1/UL​,1} and any random β^\hat\betaβ^​ with ∥β^∥∞≤R\|\hat\beta\|_\infty \le R∥β^​∥∞​≤R satisfying the S³ONC almost surely:

(i) if Ln,λ(β^)≤Ln,λ(βεA∗)+Γ\mathcal L_{n,\lambda}(\hat\beta) \le \mathcal L_{n,\lambda}(\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}) + \GammaLn,λ​(β^​)≤Ln,λ​(βεA​∗​)+Γ almost surely and n>C3[((Γ+εA)/σ)3+s(ln⁡(np)+ζ~)]n > C_3[((\Gamma + \varepsilon_A)/\sigma)^3 + s(\ln(np) + \tilde\zeta)]n>C3​[((Γ+εA​)/σ)3+s(ln(np)+ζ~​)], then with probability at least 1−2(p+1)e−n/C3−6e−n1/3/C31 - 2(p+1)e^{-n/C_3} - 6e^{-n^{1/3}/C_3}1−2(p+1)e−n/C3​−6e−n1/3/C3​,

L(β^)−inf⁡βL(β)≤C3σ[s(ln⁡(np)+ζ~)n2/3+s(ln⁡(np)+ζ~)n+1n1/3]+C3σ(Γ+εA)n1/3+Γ+εA;\mathbb L(\hat\beta) - \inf_\beta \mathbb L(\beta) \le C_3\sigma\Big[\frac{s(\ln(np)+\tilde\zeta)}{n^{2/3}} + \sqrt{\frac{s(\ln(np)+\tilde\zeta)}{n}} + \frac{1}{n^{1/3}}\Big] + C_3\sqrt{\frac{\sigma(\Gamma+\varepsilon_A)}{n^{1/3}}} + \Gamma + \varepsilon_A;L(β^​)−βinf​L(β)≤C3​σ[n2/3s(ln(np)+ζ~​)​+ns(ln(np)+ζ~​)​​+n1/31​]+C3​n1/3σ(Γ+εA​)​​+Γ+εA​;

(ii) if β^\hat\betaβ^​ is no worse in Ln,λ\mathcal L_{n,\lambda}Ln,λ​ than a Lasso solution β^ℓ1\hat\beta^{\ell_1}β^​ℓ1​, the Γ\GammaΓ-free bound (22) holds under (21).

C3,C4C_3, C_4C3​,C4​ are universal constants. The goal fixes the polynomial rate n−1/3n^{-1/3}n−1/3; the general-rate result is Proposition 1.

Milestones (the paper's proof chain)

  1. Proposition 2: the S³ONC forces ∣β^j∣∉(0,aλ)|\hat\beta_j| \notin (0, a\lambda)∣β^​j​∣∈/(0,aλ) almost surely.
  2. Lemma EC.1: the empirical risk is (2σL+Cμ)(2\sigma_L + \mathcal C_\mu)(2σL​+Cμ​)-Lipschitz on the box with high probability.
  3. Proposition 3: uniform deviation of Ln\mathcal L_nLn​ from L\mathbb LL over {∥β∥∞≤R,∥β∥0≤p′}\{\|\beta\|_\infty \le R, \|\beta\|_0 \le p'\}{∥β∥∞​≤R,∥β∥0​≤p′}.
  4. Proposition 4: ∥β^∥0≤pu′−1\|\hat\beta\|_0 \le p'_u - 1∥β^​∥0​≤pu′​−1 with high probability.
  5. Lemma EC.2: comparison of the Lasso solution with βεA∗\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}βεA​∗​ in Ln,λ\mathcal L_{n,\lambda}Ln,λ​.
  6. Proposition 5: the joint sparsity and excess-risk events for general ϱ∈(0,1/2)\varrho \in (0, 1/2)ϱ∈(0,1/2).
  7. Proposition 1: the excess-risk bounds (16), (18) at S³ONC solutions for general ϱ\varrhoϱ.

Significance

The theorem shows that second-order stationarity, which first- and second-order methods can certify (the paper's Theorem 2 gives a pseudo-polynomial algorithm), suffices for poly-logarithmic sample complexity in ppp without convexity or RSC. The paper builds on it for nonsmooth losses through smoothing (Theorem 3) and for regularized neural networks (Theorem 4). The same definitions layer (MCP, S³ONC, A-sparsity) serves those results.

The result is proved on paper, in the electronic companion of the cited preprint. Nothing of it is formalized: the platform has no folded concave penalty, no S³ONC and no excess-risk bound for sparse M-estimation without RSC. This mission provides the definitions, the goal and the proof chain as stated by the authors, with two disclosed adjustments (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds Ln(β^)−L(β^)\mathcal L_n(\hat\beta) - \mathbb L(\hat\beta)Ln​(β^​)−L(β^​) uniformly over the box ∥β∥∞≤R\|\beta\|_\infty \le R∥β∥∞​≤R and then compares β^\hat\betaβ^​ with βεA∗\beta^*_{\varepsilon_A}βεA​∗​. It fails: a covering of a ppp-dimensional box costs a factor ppp, not ln⁡p\ln plnp, in the sample size. The usual repair, RSC, which localizes the estimator near a sparse target, is exactly what the paper does without. β^\hat\betaβ^​ is moreover only a stationary point of a nonconvex objective, not a minimizer, so no optimality inequality over the whole space is available. The probabilistic part requires keeping the constants consistent across several union bounds and two Bernstein inequalities, with failure probabilities that must stay summable in the sparsity level. In Lean, an additional obstacle is that suprema over uncountable sparse sets are not obviously measurable.

Formalization scope

  • Data: an abstract measurable space W\mathcal WW (its embedding in Rq\mathbb R^qRq plays no role), independent ZiZ_iZi​ with common law μ\muμ. L(β,⋅)L(\beta, \cdot)L(β,⋅) is measurable and μ\muμ-integrable for every β\betaβ, and L\mathbb LL is bounded below, so inf⁡βL(β)\inf_\beta \mathbb L(\beta)infβ​L(β) is a genuine infimum.
  • Norms: the Euclidean norm is written out (Mathlib's norm on Fin p → ℝ is the sup norm). ∥⋅∥ψ1\|\cdot\|_{\psi_1}∥⋅∥ψ1​​ is the published Orlicz norm HighDimProb.Concentration.subexponentialNorm, always together with an explicit witness of sub-exponentiality. The paper cites the equivalent moment form; the difference is absorbed by the universal constants.
  • Bernstein constant: (12) and the analogous bound for C(Zi)\mathcal C(Z_i)C(Zi​) used in Lemma EC.1 are hypotheses with their constant ccc, quantified first. Every universal constant (C1C_1C1​–C4C_4C4​, c~\tilde cc~) comes after ccc and before every problem object: ppp, nnn, the distribution, LLL, β^\hat\betaβ^​, Γ\GammaΓ. Remark 1 asserts that such a c∈(0,1/2]c \in (0, 1/2]c∈(0,1/2] exists; the platform's proved bernstein_weighted supplies one.
  • Derivatives: the gradient enters through coordinate partial derivatives, which is all (11), (13), (14) use. Pλ′,Pλ′′P'_\lambda, P''_\lambdaPλ′​,Pλ′′​ are derivatives of the literal integral (4).
  • Probabilities: "with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is an upper bound δ\deltaδ on the outer measure of the failure set.
  • Random vectors: β^\hat\betaβ^​ and β^ℓ1\hat\beta^{\ell_1}β^​ℓ1​ are arbitrary measurable maps with the stated almost-sure properties; no statement constructs them.
  • Corrections: a<1a < 1a<1 is added to Theorem 1 and Proposition 1. It is Proposition 5's hypothesis, which their printed proofs invoke. Proposition 4's ζ1(ϵ)\zeta_1(\epsilon)ζ1​(ϵ) prints σC\sigma_CσC​, and σL\sigma_LσL​ is meant. Theorem 1's λ\lambdaλ is kept as printed (ln⁡(n2/3p)\ln(n^{2/3}p)ln(n2/3p)), although Proposition 1 at ϱ=1/3\varrho = 1/3ϱ=1/3 uses ln⁡(n1/3p)\ln(n^{1/3}p)ln(n1/3p).

The trivializing formalizations are ruled out explicitly: constants chosen after the instance, junk values of non-integrable expectations, empty infima or undefined derivatives, the sup norm in place of the Euclidean norm, and an estimator chosen by the theorem.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones in order; a Lean proof that Assumption 3 implies (12), via the published Bernstein inequality; a measurable-selection or outer-measure lemma for suprema over sparse boxes, which is reusable across high-dimensional statistics.

Selected references

  • H. Liu, Y. Ye, H. Y. Lee, High-dimensional learning under approximate sparsity with applications to nonsmooth estimation and regularized neural networks, Operations Research, 2022; preprint arXiv:1903.00616v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.00616
  • C.-H. Zhang, Nearly unbiased variable selection under minimax concave penalty, Annals of Statistics 38(2), 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/1002.4734
  • J. Fan, R. Li, Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753382273
  • S. N. Negahban, P. Ravikumar, M. J. Wainwright, B. Yu, A unified framework for high-dimensional analysis of M-estimators with decomposable regularizers, Statistical Science 27(4), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1010.2731
  • P.-L. Loh, M. J. Wainwright, Regularized M-estimators with nonconvexity: statistical and algorithmic theory for local optima, Journal of Machine Learning Research 16, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.2436
  • R. Vershynin, Introduction to the non-asymptotic analysis of random matrices, in Compressed Sensing: Theory and Applications, Cambridge University Press, 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.3027
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Fluid Limits for Multiclass Many-Server Queues with General Reneging Distributions and Head-of-the-Line Scheduling: Fluid-Scaled States Are Tight and Their Limit Points Are Fluid Model SolutionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Call centers, hospital wards and other service systems with many agents serve several customer classes, and customers who wait too long hang up or leave. The standard model is the multiclass many-server queue with reneging: NNN identical servers, JJJ classes, class-dependent service-time and patience-time distributions, and a control policy that decides when an idle server takes a customer and from which class. Exact analysis is out of reach once service and patience times are not exponential, so performance is studied through fluid limits: the limit of the system scaled by 1/N1/N1/N as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞.

A. L. Puha and A. R. Ward (MOR 2022, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1166) prove such a limit theorem for general service and patience distributions, batch arrivals and an arbitrary admissible head-of-the-line policy, including policies that idle or randomize. Earlier results covered one class without reneging (Kaspi and Ramanan, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2011), one class with reneging and unit arrivals (Kang and Ramanan, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2010), and static priority policies (Atar, Kaspi and Shimkin, Math. Oper. Res. 2014).

Setting

Fix J≥1J\ge1J≥1 classes. Class jjj has a service-time distribution GjsG^s_jGjs​ on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with density gjsg^s_jgjs​, and a patience-time distribution GjrG^r_jGjr​ on [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with density gjrg^r_jgjr​ on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, so a customer may never abandon. For a distribution GGG with density ggg, H=sup⁡{x:G(x)<1}H=\sup\{x:G(x)<1\}H=sup{x:G(x)<1} is the right edge of its support and h=g/(1−G)h=g/(1-G)h=g/(1−G) on [0,H)[0,H)[0,H) is its hazard function.

In the NNN-th queue, class-jjj customers arrive by a counting process EjNE^N_jEjN​ that may jump by more than one. The state is (αN,XN,νN,ηN)(\alpha^N,X^N,\nu^N,\eta^N)(αN,XN,νN,ηN): XjNX^N_jXjN​ counts class-jjj customers in system; νjN\nu^N_jνjN​ is the age-in-service measure, a unit atom at the service age of each class-jjj customer in service; and ηjN\eta^N_jηjN​ is the potential-queue measure, a unit atom at the time in system of each class-jjj customer whose patience has not run out. The control enters only through the entry-into-service times. A head-of-the-line (HL) policy serves each class in order of arrival. It is admissible when the entry-into-service process KNK^NKN is adapted to the filtration generated by the state history and the policy's own independent uniform random variables.

The fluid model works on the state space X=R+J×∏jM[0,Hjs)×∏jM[0,Hjr)\mathbb X=\mathbb R^J_+\times\prod_j\mathbf M[0,H^s_j)\times\prod_j\mathbf M[0,H^r_j)X=R+J​×∏j​M[0,Hjs​)×∏j​M[0,Hjr​) of finite measures with the weak topology. Given an arrival function EEE (nondecreasing, rcll, E(0)=0E(0)=0E(0)=0), a path (X,ν,η)(X,\nu,\eta)(X,ν,η) defines the auxiliary functions Bj=⟨1,νj⟩B_j=\langle1,\nu_j\rangleBj​=⟨1,νj​⟩, Qj=Xj−BjQ_j=X_j-B_jQj​=Xj​−Bj​, Dj(t)=∫0t⟨hjs,νj(u)⟩duD_j(t)=\int_0^t\langle h^s_j,\nu_j(u)\rangle duDj​(t)=∫0t​⟨hjs​,νj​(u)⟩du, Kj=Bj+Dj−Bj(0)K_j=B_j+D_j-B_j(0)Kj​=Bj​+Dj​−Bj​(0), I=1−∑jBjI=1-\sum_jB_jI=1−∑j​Bj​, and the reneging function

Rj(t)=∫0t∫0Qj(u)hjr((Fj,u)−1(y)) dy du,Fj,u(x)=⟨1[0,x],ηj(u)⟩.R_j(t)=\int_0^t\int_0^{Q_j(u)}h^r_j\big((F_{j,u})^{-1}(y)\big)\,dy\,du,\qquad F_{j,u}(x)=\langle1_{[0,x]},\eta_j(u)\rangle .Rj​(t)=∫0t​∫0Qj​(u)​hjr​((Fj,u​)−1(y))dydu,Fj,u​(x)=⟨1[0,x]​,ηj​(u)⟩.

A fluid model solution for EEE satisfies the constraints (35)–(37), the monotonicity of KKK, the balance law Xj=Xj(0)+Ej−Rj−DjX_j=X_j(0)+E_j-R_j-D_jXj​=Xj​(0)+Ej​−Rj​−Dj​, and the transport equations (46)–(47) for νj\nu_jνj​ and ηj\eta_jηj​ driven by dKjdK_jdKj​ and dEjdE_jdEj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 17)

Under Assumptions 4 and 5, for every sequence of admissible HL policies:

{(XˉN,νˉN,ηˉN)}N is tight in D(X),\{(\bar X^N,\bar\nu^N,\bar\eta^N)\}_{N}\ \text{is tight in }\mathbf D(\mathbb X),{(XˉN,νˉN,ηˉ​N)}N​ is tight in D(X),

and every distributional limit point (X,ν,η)(X,\nu,\eta)(X,ν,η) is, almost surely, a continuous fluid model solution for EEE started from (X0,ν0,η0)(X^0,\nu^0,\eta^0)(X0,ν0,η0), with continuous auxiliary functions and each ηj(t)\eta_j(t)ηj​(t) charging no points. Assumptions 1–3 ask that the scaled arrivals and initial states converge. Assumption 4 asks that the hazards be bounded or lower semicontinuous near the right edges Hjs,HjrH^s_j,H^r_jHjs​,Hjr​. Assumption 5 adds continuity of EEE, an atomless η0\eta^0η0, and control of KˉN\bar K^NKˉN by C-tightness or by inequality (55).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1, (24) and (26): the prelimit dynamic equations for ⟨f,νjN⟩\langle f,\nu^N_j\rangle⟨f,νjN​⟩ and ⟨ς,ηjN⟩\langle\varsigma,\eta^N_j\rangle⟨ς,ηjN​⟩.
  2. Lemma 6, (61): ⟨1[0,x]hjr,ηjN(t)⟩=∫0Fj,tN(x)hjr((Fj,tN)−1(y)) dy\langle1_{[0,x]}h^r_j,\eta^N_j(t)\rangle=\int_0^{F^N_{j,t}(x)}h^r_j((F^N_{j,t})^{-1}(y))\,dy⟨1[0,x]​hjr​,ηjN​(t)⟩=∫0Fj,tN​(x)​hjr​((Fj,tN​)−1(y))dy.
  3. Lemma 7: the compensator bounds ∣As,jN(φ,t)∣≤∥φ∥∞(XjN(0)+EjN(t))∫0mhjs|\mathcal A^N_{s,j}(\varphi,t)|\le\|\varphi\|_\infty(X^N_j(0)+E^N_j(t))\int_0^mh^s_j∣As,jN​(φ,t)∣≤∥φ∥∞​(XjN​(0)+EjN​(t))∫0m​hjs​ and the reneging analogue.
  4. Lemma 8: relative compactness in D(R+)\mathbf D(\mathbb R_+)D(R+​) of the fluid-scaled real processes, and their C-tightness under Assumption 5.
  5. Lemma 2 (i) and (iii): continuity and the absence of atoms propagate along fluid model solutions.

Significance

Theorem 1 characterizes fluid limits for every admissible HL policy at once. To get the fluid limit of a specific policy, one adds the equations that policy imposes and proves uniqueness for the resulting system; the paper does this for weighted random buffer selection (its Theorems 3–5). The reneging equation (40) is the main new feature: abandonment depends on the whole distribution of waiting times in queue, not only on the queue length. Allowing batch arrivals means the reneging count can only be sandwiched between two compensators, which is why Lemma 6 is needed.

The results are proved in the paper, with parts of the tightness argument delegated to Kang–Ramanan and Kaspi–Ramanan. None of them is formalized. The mission defines from scratch a measure-valued queue with abandonment, the Skorokhod space D(X)\mathbf D(\mathbb X)D(X) with J1J_1J1​ convergence, and the fluid model of §3. These definitions are reusable for the single-class models of Kaspi–Ramanan and Kang–Ramanan, for the WRBS and static-priority policies, and for other measure-valued fluid limits.

Difficulty

Each milestone is a known argument, but the obvious route to the goal breaks at the reneging term. A naive limit passage in the prelimit reneging count RjNR^N_jRjN​ fails: with batch arrivals, RjNR^N_jRjN​ is not a functional of ηjN\eta^N_jηjN​ and QjNQ^N_jQjN​ alone, because customers with equal waiting times may be split between queue and service. Identifying the limit as the nonlinear function (40) requires bounds from above and below by marked point processes. It also requires showing that the compensators of these processes converge to a common limit, which uses that η\etaη charges no points along the limit. The tightness part needs Kurtz–Jakubowski criteria for measure-valued processes on spaces [0,H)[0,H)[0,H) whose right end may carry escaping mass. Lemma 6 is a pathwise identity for finite counting measures, and Lemma 7 is a pathwise bound.

Formalization scope

Classes are Fin J with J≥1J\ge1J≥1. Time is ℝ≥0. Customers are indexed by integers as in the paper. Event times are extended reals: a patience of ∞\infty∞ keeps a customer in the potential queue forever, and an entry time of ∞\infty∞ means the customer is never served. M[0,H)\mathbf M[0,H)M[0,H) is FiniteMeasure on the subtype [0,H)[0,H)[0,H) of ℝ≥0. J1J_1J1​ convergence uses one time change for all coordinates, with the maximum of the sup-norm and Lévy–Prokhorov distances on X\mathbb XX. Convergence in distribution, distributional limit points, relative compactness and C-tightness are stated in coupling form; on the Polish space D(X)\mathbf D(\mathbb X)D(X) these are equivalent to the usual notions. Hazards take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and are 000 off [0,H)[0,H)[0,H). The integrals in (37), (40), (41), Lemma 6 and Lemma 7 are integrals of nonnegative functions. The derivative indicators that define the departure, reneging and marked processes are written as explicit counts.

Four readings are disclosed in the items. The goal's initial condition is stated through a coupling carrying (E,X0,ν0,η0)(E,X^0,\nu^0,\eta^0)(E,X0,ν0,η0) jointly, because the limit point lives on its own probability space. Gs,GrG^s,G^rGs,Gr in (46)–(47) are read as Gjs,GjrG^s_j,G^r_jGjs​,Gjr​. In Lemma 8, the (K.2) branch of Assumption 2 is read as relative compactness of KˉjN\bar K^N_jKˉjN​, because the printed (K.2) does not imply it. The goal encodes Assumption 2 as printed. The head-of-the-line order is the HL condition stated in words on pp. 8–9 rather than inequality (10) alone, which would let a policy skip a waiting customer for good and serve younger ones.

The statement admits trivializing formalizations, and they are excluded here. The HL predicate contains only the defining constraints of Definitions 1–3: entry no earlier than arrival and before abandonment (9), the head-of-the-line order (the HL condition of pp. 8–9, which contains (10): a customer can enter service only after every earlier customer of its class has entered or abandoned), the state constraints (S.1), (S.2), (15) and (16), and rcll paths. The identities (18)–(26) are not in it. All standing independence and distributional hypotheses and the adaptedness of KNK^NKN are explicit. The auxiliary functions R,D,B,Q,K,IR,D,B,Q,K,IR,D,B,Q,K,I are computed from the path, never chosen. The policy is not specialized: idling and randomization are allowed.

Not posed: Lemmas 3–5, 9 and 10, Theorem 2, and Lemma 2 (ii) and (iv). Lemma 4 needs a server-assignment filtration, Lemma 5 needs predictable quadratic variations, and Theorem 2, Lemma 9 and Lemma 10 need measure-valued marked point processes on [0,H)×R+[0,H)\times\mathbb R_+[0,H)×R+​. Formalizing these, or a sorry-free construction of an admissible system satisfying Assumptions 1–5, is welcome.

Selected references

  • A. L. Puha, A. R. Ward, Fluid limits for multiclass many-server queues with general reneging distributions and head-of-the-line scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research, Articles in Advance, 2021 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1166
  • H. Kaspi, K. Ramanan, Law of large numbers limits for many-server queues, Annals of Applied Probability 21 (2011) 33–114. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP681
  • W. Kang, K. Ramanan, Fluid limits of many-server queues with reneging, Annals of Applied Probability 20 (2010) 2204–2260. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP683
  • R. Atar, H. Kaspi, N. Shimkin, Fluid limits for many-server systems with reneging under a priority policy, Mathematics of Operations Research 39 (2014) 672–696. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0632
  • S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316658
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Large Fork-Join Queues with Nearly Deterministic Arrival and Service Times: Fluid Limit of the Maximum Queue Length with a Non-Zero Initial ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

A fork-join queue splits every incoming job into tasks, sends one task to each of NNN parallel servers, and declares the job complete only when all tasks are done. The model describes assembly systems in which a manufacturer orders parts from NNN suppliers and can only start production when every part has arrived, as well as parallel computing and storage systems in which a request is answered only after all sub-requests return. Because a job waits for its slowest task, the performance of the system is governed by the maximum queue length over the NNN servers, and the question of interest is how this maximum behaves when NNN is large and the system is heavily loaded.

Schol, Vlasiou and Zwart (arXiv:1912.11661, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022) study this question in a nearly deterministic regime: arrivals and services happen in almost every time slot, and the traffic intensity of each server tends to 111 at rate N−2N^{-2}N−2. Even in the empty-start case the queue lengths of different servers are dependent, because every server sees the same arrival process; the maximum of NNN dependent random walks has to be analysed directly.

Timeline. Early work treats two service stations and obtains exact asymptotics (Flatto and Hahn, 1984; Baccelli, 1985; Wright, 1992). For more stations the literature turned to approximations and bounds: Nelson and Tantawi (1988) and Baccelli and Makowski (1989) bound the mean response time, and Ko and Serfozo (2004) approximate the response-time distribution in M/M/s fork-join queues. Heavy-traffic process limits for a fixed number of stations were obtained by Varma (1990) and Nguyen (1993, 1994), with reflected Brownian motion limits, and by Lu and Pang (2015–2017) for many-server stations. Sigman and Whitt (2011) analysed nearly deterministic G/G/1 and G/D/N queues. The paper of this mission gives a process-level (fluid) limit for the largest queue when the number of servers NNN itself grows, in the nearly deterministic regime and with a non-zero initial condition.

Setting

Fix α,β>0\alpha,\beta>0α,β>0. For each NNN the system runs in discrete time slots j=1,2,…j=1,2,\dotsj=1,2,…. In slot jjj a task arrives at all NNN servers with probability p(N)=1−α/N−β/N2p^{(N)}=1-\alpha/N-\beta/N^2p(N)=1−α/N−β/N2 (indicator X(N)(j)X^{(N)}(j)X(N)(j)), and server iii completes a task with probability q(N)=1−α/Nq^{(N)}=1-\alpha/Nq(N)=1−α/N (indicator Yi(N)(j)Y_i^{(N)}(j)Yi(N)​(j)), all indicators being independent. The arrival process is A(N)(n)=∑j=1nX(N)(j)A^{(N)}(n)=\sum_{j=1}^{n}X^{(N)}(j)A(N)(n)=∑j=1n​X(N)(j) and the service process of server iii is Si(N)(n)=∑j=1nYi(N)(j)S_i^{(N)}(n)=\sum_{j=1}^{n}Y_i^{(N)}(j)Si(N)​(n)=∑j=1n​Yi(N)​(j).

Server iii starts with Qi(N)(0)=⌊rNUi⌋Q_i^{(N)}(0)=\lfloor r_NU_i\rfloorQi(N)​(0)=⌊rN​Ui​⌋ tasks, where U1,U2,…U_1,U_2,\dotsU1​,U2​,… are i.i.d. random variables, the initial queue lengths are non-negative, and rN≥0r_N\ge0rN​≥0 is a scaling sequence. By Lindley's recursion the maximum queue length at time nnn is

Q(α,β)(N)(n)=max⁡i≤Nmax⁡(sup⁡0≤k≤n[(A(N)(n)−A(N)(k))−(Si(N)(n)−Si(N)(k))],  Qi(N)(0)+A(N)(n)−Si(N)(n)).Q^{(N)}_{(\alpha,\beta)}(n)=\max_{i\le N}\max\Big(\sup_{0\le k\le n}\big[(A^{(N)}(n)-A^{(N)}(k))-(S_i^{(N)}(n)-S_i^{(N)}(k))\big],\;Q_i^{(N)}(0)+A^{(N)}(n)-S_i^{(N)}(n)\Big).Q(α,β)(N)​(n)=i≤Nmax​max(0≤k≤nsup​[(A(N)(n)−A(N)(k))−(Si(N)​(n)−Si(N)​(k))],Qi(N)​(0)+A(N)(n)−Si(N)​(n)).

The first term alone is the maximum queue length of the system started empty. The initial condition is assumed to satisfy Q(α,β)(N)(0)/(Nlog⁡N)→q(0)≥0Q^{(N)}_{(\alpha,\beta)}(0)/(N\log N)\to q(0)\ge0Q(α,β)(N)​(0)/(NlogN)→q(0)≥0 in probability (Assumption 2.3), and either UiU_iUi​ has a finite right endpoint (Assumption 2.4) or UiU_iUi​ is continuous with −log⁡P(Ui>vt)/−log⁡P(Ui>t)→h(v)-\log\mathbb P(U_i>vt)/-\log\mathbb P(U_i>t)\to h(v)−logP(Ui​>vt)/−logP(Ui​>t)→h(v) as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ for all v∈[0,1]v\in[0,1]v∈[0,1] (Assumption 2.5, the Gumbel-domain case).

The fluid limit is

q(t)=max⁡((2αt−βt)1(t<α2β2)+α2β1(t≥α2β2),  g(t,q(0))−βt),q(t)=\max\Big(\big(\sqrt{2\alpha t}-\beta t\big)\mathbb 1\big(t<\tfrac{\alpha}{2\beta^2}\big)+\tfrac{\alpha}{2\beta}\mathbb 1\big(t\ge\tfrac{\alpha}{2\beta^2}\big),\;g(t,q(0))-\beta t\Big),q(t)=max((2αt​−βt)1(t<2β2α​)+2βα​1(t≥2β2α​),g(t,q(0))−βt),

with g(t,q(0))=q(0)+2αtg(t,q(0))=q(0)+\sqrt{2\alpha t}g(t,q(0))=q(0)+2αt​ under Assumption 2.4 and g(t,q(0))=sup⁡{2αt u+q(0)v:u2+h(v)≤1, 0≤u,v≤1}g(t,q(0))=\sup\{\sqrt{2\alpha t}\,u+q(0)v : u^2+h(v)\le1,\ 0\le u,v\le1\}g(t,q(0))=sup{2αt​u+q(0)v:u2+h(v)≤1, 0≤u,v≤1} under Assumption 2.5. In Lean these are fluid, fluidEmpty, gFinite and gGumbel; the queue is maxQueue and the empty-start queue maxQueueEmpty.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (fluid limit)

For every T>0T>0T>0 and ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0,

P(sup⁡0≤t≤T∣Q(α,β)(N)(tN3log⁡N)Nlog⁡N−q(t)∣>ϵ)→N→∞0,\mathbb P\left(\sup_{0\le t\le T}\left|\frac{Q^{(N)}_{(\alpha,\beta)}(tN^3\log N)}{N\log N}-q(t)\right|>\epsilon\right)\xrightarrow{N\to\infty}0,P​0≤t≤Tsup​​NlogNQ(α,β)(N)​(tN3logN)​−q(t)​>ϵ​N→∞​0,

under Assumptions 2.1–2.3 and either Assumption 2.4 or Assumption 2.5 (one conjunct per case).

Milestones

  1. Section 4.2 tools. The pathwise oscillation bound of Lemma 4.1; the non-uniform Berry–Esseen rate of Lemma 4.2 for the standardized service process; the moment bound of Lemma 4.3; the extreme-value Lemma B.1 for sums of independent relatively stable variables and its consequence Lemma 4.4 for the Gaussian surrogate of the initial condition.
  2. Pointwise convergence (Section 4.3). Lemmas 4.6 and 4.8 (bounds for the empty-start system), Lemma 4.5 (its pointwise limit), Lemma 4.9 (the initial-condition part) and Theorem 4.1: Q(α,β)(N)(tN3log⁡N)/(Nlog⁡N)→q(t)Q^{(N)}_{(\alpha,\beta)}(tN^3\log N)/(N\log N)\to q(t)Q(α,β)(N)​(tN3logN)/(NlogN)→q(t) in probability for each t>0t>0t>0.
  3. Tightness (Section 4.4). Lemma 4.10 (maxima preserve uniform convergence), Lemmas 4.11–4.12 (moduli of continuity of the two parts) and Corollary 4.1 (tightness of the scaled process on [0,T][0,T][0,T]).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.1 identifies the scaling under which the maximum queue length of a large, heavily loaded fork-join system follows a deterministic curve: time of order N3log⁡NN^3\log NN3logN and space of order Nlog⁡NN\log NNlogN. The limit separates the contribution of the empty-start dynamics, which saturate at the steady-state level α/(2β)\alpha/(2\beta)α/(2β) after time α/(2β2)\alpha/(2\beta^2)α/(2β2), from the contribution of the initial backlog, which is governed by the extreme-value class of the initial condition. For instance, with h(v)=vh(v)=vh(v)=v and q(0)=α/(2β)q(0)=\alpha/(2\beta)q(0)=α/(2β) the system "starts and stays in steady state" on an initial interval (p. 12). The theorem gives the transient behaviour needed to judge how long a backlog at the slowest supplier persists.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no part of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement of the model and of the fluid limit, and the intermediate results of Section 4. The proof combines a non-uniform Berry–Esseen inequality, extreme-value theory for maxima of sums, Doob's maximal inequality and a tightness criterion; formalizing it would give reusable Lean versions of several of these tools.

Difficulty

The obvious argument treats the NNN queues as independent reflected random walks and applies extreme-value theory to their maximum. It fails because all servers share the arrival process, so the queues are dependent. The paper handles this by splitting each queue into a common arrival term and an individual service term, but the individual terms are maxima of NNN centred random walks evaluated at a time of order N3log⁡NN^3\log NN3logN, and their Gaussian approximation must be accurate at the scale of the maximum: a uniform Berry–Esseen bound is too weak, and a non-uniform bound with the right rate in NNN is needed (Lemma 4.2). Upgrading pointwise convergence to uniform convergence on [0,T][0,T][0,T] requires a modulus-of-continuity estimate for a maximum of NNN processes (Lemmas 4.11–4.12), where the number of processes grows with NNN. The initial-condition term requires an extreme-value result for maxima of sums of two independent coordinates with different tails (Lemma B.1).

Formalization scope

All objects are defined in one module, LargeForkJoin.FluidLimit.Model. Times are natural numbers, and Q(tN3log⁡N)Q(tN^3\log N)Q(tN3logN) is evaluated at ⌊tN3log⁡N⌋\lfloor tN^3\log N\rfloor⌊tN3logN⌋, which is the paper's own convention Q(n)=Q(⌊n⌋)Q(n)=Q(\lfloor n\rfloor)Q(n)=Q(⌊n⌋). Servers are indexed 0,…,N−10,\dots,N-10,…,N−1. All variables live on one probability space; the Bernoulli laws are imposed for N≥N0N\ge N_0N≥N0​ (for small NNN, p(N)p^{(N)}p(N) can be negative), and within each N≥N0N\ge N_0N≥N0​ the arrival indicators, service indicators and initial-condition variables UiU_iUi​ used by that system are mutually independent. The independence of (Ui)(U_i)(Ui​) from arrivals and services is an added assumption: the paper uses it in its proofs but does not state it. Initial queue lengths are non-negative almost surely. Assumption 2.5 adds P(Ui>t)>0\mathbb P(U_i>t)>0P(Ui​>t)>0 for all ttt, without which its ratio is undefined; "continuous" means "no atoms". Convergence in probability to a constant is written with ϵ\epsilonϵ-events, and sup⁡0≤t≤T∣⋅∣>ϵ\sup_{0\le t\le T}|\cdot|>\epsilonsup0≤t≤T​∣⋅∣>ϵ as "some t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T] has ∣⋅∣>ϵ|\cdot|>\epsilon∣⋅∣>ϵ", the same event. Lemmas 4.4 and 4.9 speak of Gaussian variables outside the model; they are stated for the law of NNN independent pairs (standard normal, law of U1U_1U1​).

The goal is stated about the maximum queue length built from the Bernoulli indicators through (2.3), uniformly on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. A statement about a Gaussian or reflected-Brownian surrogate (the heuristics of Sections 2.2–2.3), or a pointwise statement (Theorem 4.1), would not be Theorem 2.1.

Not included: Propositions 2.1–2.3 (other scalings and the steady state), the variant of Theorem 2.1 under Assumption 2.6, Theorem 4.2 (finite-dimensional distributions, a generic fact), and Lemma 4.7, whose statement includes the stationary case t=∞t=\inftyt=∞ and needs a stationary-queue object. Contributions of general tools are welcome: a non-uniform Berry–Esseen inequality for Bernoulli sums, extreme-value results for maxima of i.i.d. sequences (relative stability, Gumbel-domain tails), and the tightness criterion of Billingsley's Theorem 7.3.

Selected references

  • D. Schol, M. Vlasiou, B. Zwart, Large fork-join queues with nearly deterministic arrival and service times, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022; arXiv:1912.11661v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11661v3
  • L. Flatto, S. Hahn, Two parallel queues created by arrivals with two demands I, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 44(5), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1137/0144072
  • F. Baccelli, A. M. Makowski, Queueing models for systems with synchronization constraints, Proceedings of the IEEE 77(1), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/5.21076
  • R. Nelson, A. N. Tantawi, Approximate analysis of fork/join synchronization in parallel queues, IEEE Transactions on Computers 37(6), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1109/12.2212
  • K. Sigman, W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for nearly deterministic queues, Journal of Applied Probability 48(3), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1239/jap/1316796905
  • S.-S. Ko, R. F. Serfozo, Response times in M/M/s fork-join networks, Advances in Applied Probability 36(3), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1239/aap/1093962240
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316962
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Discrete Dividend Payments in Continuous Time: The Value Function Is the Unique Fixed Point of the One-Period Dividend-and-Issuance OperatorResearch Paper

Why periodic dividends matter

A firm can return cash to shareholders by paying dividends, but a payment reduces the reserves available to survive future losses. If cash can be distributed only at scheduled dates while equity can be raised between those dates, the firm must coordinate a discrete dividend decision with a continuous-time financing decision. Keppo, Reppen and Soner study this combination for a firm whose cash flow is a Brownian motion with drift. Their preprint identifies the firm's optimal value through an operator that first solves the financing problem between dividend dates and then chooses the next dividend. The mission concerns that characterization, Theorem 3.4, together with the regularity results on which it depends.

The cash reserve model

Let x≥0x\ge0x≥0 be the initial reserve and let Ct=μt+σWtC_t=\mu t+\sigma W_tCt​=μt+σWt​, where WWW is a one-dimensional Brownian motion, μ>0\mu>0μ>0 is profitability, and σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 is volatility. Dividends of amounts ℓn≥0\ell_n\ge0ℓn​≥0 may be paid at dates nTnTnT, with T>0T>0T>0. Equity issues have sizes ζk≥0\zeta_k\ge0ζk​≥0 and occur at stopping times τk\tau_kτk​; the issue times are locally finite. A positive issue costs

c(ζ)=λf+(1+λp)ζ,λf,λp>0,c(\zeta)=\lambda_f+(1+\lambda_p)\zeta,\qquad \lambda_f,\lambda_p>0,c(ζ)=λf​+(1+λp​)ζ,λf​,λp​>0,

while no issue costs zero. The cash reserve after actions at time ttt is Xt=x+Ct−Lt+ItX_t=x+C_t-L_t+I_tXt​=x+Ct​−Lt​+It​. The ruin time θ\thetaθ is the first strictly positive time that Xt<0X_t<0Xt​<0. A dividend cannot exceed the reserve immediately before its date, and no action is taken after ruin. These conditions define the admissible controls Ax\mathcal A_xAx​.

The firm's value function is the supremum, over admissible controls, of expected discounted dividends less expected discounted issue costs:

V(x)=sup⁡(L,I)∈AxEx[∑n≥0e−ρnTℓn−∑ke−ρτkc(ζk)],ρ>0.V(x)=\sup_{(L,I)\in\mathcal A_x}\mathbb E_x\left[\sum_{n\ge0}e^{-\rho nT}\ell_n-\sum_k e^{-\rho\tau_k}c(\zeta_k)\right],\qquad \rho>0.V(x)=(L,I)∈Ax​sup​Ex​[n≥0∑​e−ρnTℓn​−k∑​e−ρτk​c(ζk​)],ρ>0.

The first sum includes a possible dividend at time zero, following the displayed objective in §3.1 of the preprint. An issue at time TTT belongs to the next period. Thus the one-period financing operator Lϕ\mathcal L\phiLϕ charges issues on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) and evaluates its continuation reward ϕ\phiϕ at the reserve immediately before TTT. The dividend operator is

Dϕ(x)=sup⁡0≤ℓ≤x{ϕ(x−ℓ)+ℓ},T=D∘L.\mathcal D\phi(x)=\sup_{0\le\ell\le x}\{\phi(x-\ell)+\ell\},\qquad \mathcal T=\mathcal D\circ\mathcal L.Dϕ(x)=0≤ℓ≤xsup​{ϕ(x−ℓ)+ℓ},T=D∘L.

The continuation class CA\mathcal C_ACA​ consists of the continuous, nondecreasing functions ϕ:[0,∞)→[0,∞)\phi:[0,\infty)\to[0,\infty)ϕ:[0,∞)→[0,∞) that satisfy the issuance boundary condition of Definition 3.2, are bounded above by x+Ax+Ax+A, and have ϕ(x)−x\phi(x)-xϕ(x)−x nondecreasing and bounded in absolute value by AAA. Its larger class C^A\widehat{\mathcal C}_ACA​ omits the last condition. The intervention value in the boundary condition is Iϕ(x)=sup⁡ζ>0{ϕ(x+ζ)−c(ζ)}\mathcal I\phi(x)=\sup_{\zeta>0}\{\phi(x+\zeta)-c(\zeta)\}Iϕ(x)=supζ>0​{ϕ(x+ζ)−c(ζ)}.

Formalization targets

The first target is the mapping statement in Theorem 3.3: D:C^A→CA\mathcal D:\widehat{\mathcal C}_A\to\mathcal C_AD:CA​→CA​ for A≥0A\ge0A≥0. With

A∗=μTeρT−1,A^*=\frac{\mu T}{e^{\rho T}-1},A∗=eρT−1μT​,

the next targets are the one-period bound 0≤Lϕ(x)≤e−ρTx+A0\le\mathcal L\phi(x)\le e^{-\rho T}x+A0≤Lϕ(x)≤e−ρTx+A for A≥A∗A\ge A^*A≥A∗, the classical one-period characterization of Theorem 3.6, and the remaining mapping and contraction assertions of Theorem 3.3. In particular, T\mathcal TT contracts the uniform distance between functions in CA\mathcal C_ACA​ by the factor e−ρTe^{-\rho T}e−ρT.

The goal is Theorem 3.4:

V∈CA∗,TV=V,ϕ∈CA∗ and Tϕ=ϕ ⟹ ϕ=V.V\in\mathcal C_{A^*},\qquad \mathcal T V=V,\qquad \phi\in\mathcal C_{A^*}\ \text{and}\ \mathcal T\phi=\phi\ \Longrightarrow\ \phi=V.V∈CA∗​,TV=V,ϕ∈CA∗​ and Tϕ=ϕ ⟹ ϕ=V.

This identifies the fixed point with the value defined from admissible controls. It also asserts that the value is finite at every nonnegative initial reserve.

What the characterization gives

Theorem 3.4 turns an infinite-horizon control problem into repeated one-period calculations. Since Theorem 3.3 makes T\mathcal TT a strict contraction on CA∗\mathcal C_{A^*}CA∗​, iterating it determines the value in that class. The source connects this characterization to a numerical method when the one-period financing problem can be computed efficiently. A proof in Lean would also provide reusable statements about locally finite impulse controls, periodic actions, ruin, and discounted extended-real objectives. The preprint proves the mathematical results; this mission records their statements as open Lean theorems for machine-checked proofs.

Where the difficulty lies

The dividend operator is an elementary supremum over one payment, but the financing operator ranges over adapted impulses before ruin. Its regularity is central: the paper invokes Theorem 3.6 to show that Lϕ\mathcal L\phiLϕ is continuous and satisfies the issuance boundary condition. That theorem characterizes the arbitrary-maturity issuance value as the unique classical solution of a parabolic equation with a nonlocal boundary condition. The fixed-point conclusion alone would leave an additional gap: Theorem 3.4 must identify that fixed point with the original control supremum, including the limit over dividend periods and its terminal reward.

Formalization scope

Lean represents nonnegative reserves by R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ and the discount, costs and function values by real numbers. Control values and one-period rewards are suprema in extended real numbers, with dividends and issue costs integrated separately as nonnegative quantities. The L\mathcal LL bound proves the finiteness needed before converting to real values. An expression with both expected dividends and expected costs infinite takes the extended-real value −∞-\infty−∞ and cannot improve a supremum with a finite admissible alternative.

The paper's cumulative processes are represented by nonnegative dividend amounts and a locally finite impulse sequence of nonnegative issues. This makes explicit that equity cannot be supplied by an uncharged continuous component. Simultaneous impulses are allowed; merging them cannot increase the cost. The Brownian cash flow uses the published AtaBarjesteh23.Workload.IsDriftBM definition. The model requires a probability measure, adaptation to a filtration, and positive ρ,μ,σ,λf,λp,T\rho,\mu,\sigma,\lambda_f,\lambda_p,Tρ,μ,σ,λf​,λp​,T. The filtration is right-continuous and its initial σ-algebra contains all subsets of ambient null measurable sets, as required by the usual conditions. A dividend at time zero follows the objective's sum. In L\mathcal LL, the continuation value uses XT−X_{T-}XT−​, resolving the free-issue-at-TTT ambiguity in the printed formula. The arbitrary-maturity problem retains its separately printed non-strict survival indicator.

The value VVV is defined solely from admissible controls, never from T\mathcal TT or its iterates. Theorem 3.6 uses time to maturity and states smoothness only on the interior rectangle; uniqueness is restricted to the closed nonnegative time-state rectangle. Reusable work includes stopping-time measurability, impulse summation and parabolic regularity. Contributions proving the goal or the four listed milestones are within scope; §4's random-profitability model and §3.4's numerical experiments are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • J. Keppo, A. M. Reppen and H. M. Soner, Discrete Dividend Payments in Continuous Time, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021; preprint arXiv:1805.05077v2, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.05077v2
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On Computing the Nonlinearity Interval in Parametric Semidefinite Optimization: The Set of Transition Points of the Optimal Partition Is FiniteResearch Paper

Motivation

Sensitivity analysis asks how the solution of an optimization problem changes when its data move. For linear optimization the answer has been known since the 1990s: as the objective is perturbed along a fixed direction, the optimal partition (which variables can be positive at an optimum and which slacks can) stays constant on open intervals and changes only at finitely many breakpoints, and the optimal value is piecewise linear with breakpoints exactly there (Adler and Monteiro, Algorithmica 8, 1992; Jansen, Roos and Terlaky, 1993). Semidefinite optimization (SDO) is used throughout control, combinatorial relaxations and polynomial optimization, and its parametric behaviour is less regular. The optimal partition can stay constant while the optimal sets move (a nonlinearity interval), and the optimal value need not be piecewise linear.

Mohammad-Nezhad and Terlaky (Optimization 69, 2020) defined invariancy intervals, nonlinearity intervals and transition points for parametric SDO. Hauenstein, Mohammad-Nezhad, Tang and Terlaky (arXiv:1908.10499v3; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022) prove that there are only finitely many transition points (Theorem 1, p. 8) and then compute nonlinearity intervals with numerical algebraic geometry. Finiteness is what makes a computational description possible: without it, the interior of the domain need not decompose into finitely many intervals of each kind.

Timeline:

  • 1992–1993: Adler and Monteiro, and Jansen, Roos and Terlaky, start the optimal partition approach to parametric linear optimization.
  • 1999: Goldfarb and Scheinberg extend the optimal partition approach to parametric SDO (Applied Numerical Mathematics 29).
  • 2020: Mohammad-Nezhad and Terlaky introduce the optimal partition approach to parametric SDO (Definitions 3–5 of the present paper are taken from there).
  • 2019–2022: Hauenstein, Mohammad-Nezhad, Tang and Terlaky prove that the transition points are finite (Theorem 1) and give the nonlinearity-interval algorithm.

Setting

Let Sn\mathbb S^nSn be the real symmetric n×nn\times nn×n matrices with ⟨M,X⟩=tr⁡(MX)\langle M,X\rangle=\operatorname{tr}(MX)⟨M,X⟩=tr(MX). Data: A1,…,Am,C,Cˉ∈SnA^1,\dots,A^m,C,\bar C\in\mathbb S^nA1,…,Am,C,Cˉ∈Sn and b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm. For a real parameter ϵ\epsilonϵ consider

(Pϵ) inf⁡X{⟨C+ϵCˉ,X⟩: ⟨Ai,X⟩=bi, X⪰0},(Dϵ) sup⁡(y,S){bTy: ∑iyiAi+S=C+ϵCˉ, S⪰0}.(\mathrm P_\epsilon)\ \inf_X\{\langle C+\epsilon\bar C,X\rangle:\ \langle A^i,X\rangle=b_i,\ X\succeq0\},\qquad (\mathrm D_\epsilon)\ \sup_{(y,S)}\Big\{b^Ty:\ \textstyle\sum_i y_iA^i+S=C+\epsilon\bar C,\ S\succeq0\Big\}.(Pϵ​) Xinf​{⟨C+ϵCˉ,X⟩: ⟨Ai,X⟩=bi​, X⪰0},(Dϵ​) (y,S)sup​{bTy: ∑i​yi​Ai+S=C+ϵCˉ, S⪰0}.

The primal feasible set P\mathcal PP does not depend on ϵ\epsilonϵ; the dual one is D(ϵ)\mathcal D(\epsilon)D(ϵ). The optimal value function v(ϵ)∈R∪{±∞}v(\epsilon)\in\mathbb R\cup\{\pm\infty\}v(ϵ)∈R∪{±∞} is the infimum of (Pϵ)(\mathrm P_\epsilon)(Pϵ​), its domain is E={ϵ: v(ϵ)>−∞}\mathcal E=\{\epsilon:\ v(\epsilon)>-\infty\}E={ϵ: v(ϵ)>−∞}, and the optimal sets are P∗(ϵ)={X∈P:⟨C+ϵCˉ,X⟩=v(ϵ)}\mathcal P^*(\epsilon)=\{X\in\mathcal P:\langle C+\epsilon\bar C,X\rangle=v(\epsilon)\}P∗(ϵ)={X∈P:⟨C+ϵCˉ,X⟩=v(ϵ)} and D∗(ϵ)={(y,S)∈D(ϵ):bTy=v(ϵ)}\mathcal D^*(\epsilon)=\{(y,S)\in\mathcal D(\epsilon):b^Ty=v(\epsilon)\}D∗(ϵ)={(y,S)∈D(ϵ):bTy=v(ϵ)}.

Standing assumptions (p. 2): Assumption 1, the AiA^iAi are linearly independent; Assumption 2, there are X∘∈PX^\circ\in\mathcal PX∘∈P, (y∘,S∘)∈D(0)(y^\circ,S^\circ)\in\mathcal D(0)(y∘,S∘)∈D(0) with X∘,S∘≻0X^\circ,S^\circ\succ0X∘,S∘≻0.

For ϵ∈int⁡(E)\epsilon\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵ∈int(E), a maximally complementary optimal solution (X∗(ϵ),y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ))(X^*(\epsilon),y^*(\epsilon),S^*(\epsilon))(X∗(ϵ),y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ)) has X∗(ϵ)∈ri⁡P∗(ϵ)X^*(\epsilon)\in\operatorname{ri}\mathcal P^*(\epsilon)X∗(ϵ)∈riP∗(ϵ) and (y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ))∈ri⁡D∗(ϵ)(y^*(\epsilon),S^*(\epsilon))\in\operatorname{ri}\mathcal D^*(\epsilon)(y∗(ϵ),S∗(ϵ))∈riD∗(ϵ) (Definition 1). A point ϵˉ∈int⁡(E)\bar\epsilon\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵˉ∈int(E) is a transition point if every interval (ϵˉ−δ,ϵˉ+δ)∩int⁡(E)(\bar\epsilon-\delta,\bar\epsilon+\delta)\cap\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)(ϵˉ−δ,ϵˉ+δ)∩int(E) contains an ϵ\epsilonϵ with rank⁡X∗(ϵ)≠rank⁡X∗(ϵˉ)\operatorname{rank}X^*(\epsilon)\ne\operatorname{rank}X^*(\bar\epsilon)rankX∗(ϵ)=rankX∗(ϵˉ) or rank⁡S∗(ϵ)≠rank⁡S∗(ϵˉ)\operatorname{rank}S^*(\epsilon)\ne\operatorname{rank}S^*(\bar\epsilon)rankS∗(ϵ)=rankS∗(ϵˉ) (Definition 5).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 8)

{ϵˉ∈R: ϵˉ is a transition point} is finite.\{\bar\epsilon\in\mathbb R:\ \bar\epsilon\ \text{is a transition point}\}\ \text{is finite.}{ϵˉ∈R: ϵˉ is a transition point} is finite.

The statement names no bound on the number of transition points; it asserts finiteness only.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's argument

  1. Remark 1 (p. 2): strictly feasible primal and dual solutions exist at every ϵ∈int⁡(E)\epsilon\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵ∈int(E).
  2. p. 2: E\mathcal EE is an interval with at least two points; vvv is finite and concave on E\mathcal EE and continuous on int⁡(E)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)int(E).
  3. p. 2: for ϵ∈int⁡(E)\epsilon\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵ∈int(E), P∗(ϵ)\mathcal P^*(\epsilon)P∗(ϵ) and D∗(ϵ)\mathcal D^*(\epsilon)D∗(ϵ) are nonempty and compact (strong duality).
  4. (1), p. 2: on int⁡(E)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)int(E), a primal–dual triple is optimal iff it is feasible and XS=0XS=0XS=0.
  5. Appendix, p. 22: the ranks at relative-interior optimal points are maximal on the optimal sets.
  6. (19), p. 22: int⁡(E)=⋃θ+σ≤nS(θ,σ)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)=\bigcup_{\theta+\sigma\le n}\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}int(E)=⋃θ+σ≤n​S(θ,σ)​, where S(θ,σ)\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}S(θ,σ)​ is the set of ϵ∈int⁡(E)\epsilon\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵ∈int(E) at which some (X,y,S)∈ri⁡(P∗(ϵ)×D∗(ϵ))(X,y,S)\in\operatorname{ri}(\mathcal P^*(\epsilon)\times\mathcal D^*(\epsilon))(X,y,S)∈ri(P∗(ϵ)×D∗(ϵ)) has ranks (θ,σ)(\theta,\sigma)(θ,σ).
  7. p. 22: ϵˉ\bar\epsilonϵˉ is a transition point iff ϵˉ∈bd⁡(S(θ,σ))∩int⁡(E)\bar\epsilon\in\operatorname{bd}(\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)})\cap\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)ϵˉ∈bd(S(θ,σ)​)∩int(E) for some θ+σ≤n\theta+\sigma\le nθ+σ≤n.
  8. p. 23: every S(θ,σ)\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}S(θ,σ)​ is a semi-algebraic subset of R\mathbb RR.
  9. [Basu–Pollack–Roy, Theorem 5.22], cited p. 22: a semi-algebraic subset of R\mathbb RR has finitely many boundary points.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 implies that int⁡(E)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)int(E) is a finite union of invariancy intervals, nonlinearity intervals and transition points (p. 8). This is the structural fact behind the paper's algorithm, which follows the optimal solution along a nonlinearity interval and detects its end points, and it extends to SDO the finite-breakpoint picture of parametric linear optimization. Without finiteness, a sensitivity report would have no finite description.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. It has no machine-checked proof that we know of. A complete development would bring parametric conic duality into Lean (the interior point condition moving along a direction, strong duality with attainment, compactness of optimal sets), and it would connect convex analysis to semi-algebraic geometry: relative interiors, ranks of positive semidefinite matrices, and the one-dimensional case of Tarski–Seidenberg. Each of these is useful beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says that ranks are integers between 000 and nnn, so they can change only finitely often. That is false for arbitrary integer-valued functions on an interval: a rank pair could alternate on a sequence accumulating at a point, producing infinitely many transition points. Finiteness needs a structural reason why each level set S(θ,σ)\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}S(θ,σ)​ is a finite union of points and intervals. That reason is semi-algebraicity. Proving it requires showing that the relative interior of the optimal set, and the parameter values where a rank is attained there, can be described by a first-order formula over the reals, and then eliminating the quantifiers. Mathlib has no Tarski–Seidenberg theorem, and the one-variable structure theorem for semi-algebraic sets (milestone 9) is itself missing.

A second difficulty is the parametric duality: strict feasibility is assumed only at ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, and propagating it to all of int⁡(E)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)int(E) (Remark 1) uses a theorem of the alternative for SDO.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ; X⪰0X\succeq0X⪰0 is PosSemidef (which includes symmetry) and X≻0X\succ0X≻0 is PosDef. Symmetry of AiA^iAi, CCC, Cˉ\bar CCˉ is a hypothesis of every theorem, as are Assumptions 1–2. The optimal value vvv is an EReal infimum over P\mathcal PP, so v=−∞v=-\inftyv=−∞ is represented faithfully and E\mathcal EE is not a junk set. D∗(ϵ)\mathcal D^*(\epsilon)D∗(ϵ) compares bTyb^TybTy with the primal value v(ϵ)v(\epsilon)v(ϵ), as printed. The relative interior is Mathlib's intrinsicInterior. Definition 1 lets X∗(ϵ)X^*(\epsilon)X∗(ϵ) be any maximally complementary solution. The formalization removes this choice by taking the supremum of ranks over relative-interior points, and milestone 5 shows that every such point has that rank. S(θ,σ)\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}S(θ,σ)​ uses the relative interior of the product, as printed. A subset of R\mathbb RR is semi-algebraic when its copy in R1\mathbb R^1R1 is a finite union of sets {p=0, g<0}\{p=0,\ g<0\}{p=0, g<0} with real polynomials.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded:

  • ranks are taken at relative-interior points only, never at arbitrary optimal points;
  • vvv is an extended-real infimum, never a real sInf (which would make an unbounded problem look finite with value 000);
  • transition points are defined by Definition 5 itself, not as boundary points of S(θ,σ)\mathcal S_{(\theta,\sigma)}S(θ,σ)​.

The paper also states that E\mathcal EE is closed. Under Assumptions 1–2 this is false: n=2n=2n=2, m=1m=1m=1, A1=diag⁡(1,0)A^1=\operatorname{diag}(1,0)A1=diag(1,0), b=1b=1b=1, C=(0111)C=\begin{pmatrix}0&1\\1&1\end{pmatrix}C=(01​11​), Cˉ=diag⁡(0,1)\bar C=\operatorname{diag}(0,1)Cˉ=diag(0,1) gives E=(−1,∞)\mathcal E=(-1,\infty)E=(−1,∞). Milestone 2 omits closedness. The paper's proof of Theorem 1 does not use it.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone; a semi-algebraic toolkit in Lean (closure under Boolean operations, projections from RN+1\mathbb R^{N+1}RN+1 to R\mathbb RR, the one-dimensional structure theorem); conic duality for standard-form SDO.

Selected references

  • J. D. Hauenstein, A. Mohammad-Nezhad, T. Tang, T. Terlaky, On computing the nonlinearity interval in parametric semidefinite optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:1908.10499v3
  • A. Mohammad-Nezhad, T. Terlaky, Parametric analysis of semidefinite optimization, Optimization 69 (2020), 187–216.
  • I. Adler, R. D. C. Monteiro, A geometric view of parametric linear programming, Algorithmica 8 (1992), 161–176.
  • D. Goldfarb, K. Scheinberg, On parametric semidefinite programming, Applied Numerical Mathematics 29 (1999), 361–377.
  • S. Basu, R. Pollack, M.-F. Roy, Algorithms in Real Algebraic Geometry, Springer, 2006.
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Use and Replenishment of Two Substitutable Raw Materials in a Stochastic Capacitated Make-to-Order Production System: A Use-Down-To/Balancing Production Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Make-to-order manufacturers may use two substitutable raw materials to satisfy demand when production capacity and material deliveries are uncertain. A cheaper material may yield less finished product per unit, and the firm must decide how much of each material to preserve for later periods. A production rule based only on current unit costs can be wrong because using one material changes the inventory state from which future orders and production will be chosen. Chen, Duenyas, and Jasin study this coupled replenishment and production problem and characterize the form of an optimal production decision. Their result gives a state-dependent rule described by four curves, rather than requiring a separate optimization for every inventory state. This mission formalizes that production result from the 2016 working-paper version of their study.

Setting

There are T≥1T\ge1T≥1 periods and two substitutable materials. A unit of finished product requires aj>0a^j>0aj>0 units of type-jjj material, with a1<a2a^1<a^2a1<a2. Before production in period ttt, the available material is a vector yt=(yt1,yt2)∈R+2y_t=(y_t^1,y_t^2)\in\mathbb R_+^2yt​=(yt1​,yt2​)∈R+2​. Demand DtD_tDt​ and production capacity RtR_tRt​ are nonnegative random quantities with finite support. A unit of satisfied demand earns revenue ete_tet​; a unit of lost demand incurs penalty σt>0\sigma_t>0σt​>0. Holding costs are htjh_t^jhtj​ and material purchasing costs are ctjc_t^jctj​. Ordered amounts are limited by random availabilities qtjq_t^jqtj​, whose finite supports may include +∞+\infty+∞.

The production decision is the remaining inventory wtw_twt​ after material use. The feasible set E2(yt,Dt,Rt)E_2(y_t,D_t,R_t)E2​(yt​,Dt​,Rt​) contains vectors satisfying 0≤wt≤yt0\le w_t\le y_t0≤wt​≤yt​, the demand limit, and the capacity limit:

a1wt1+a2wt2≥a1yt1+a2yt2−Dt,wt1+wt2≥yt1+yt2−Rt.a^1w_t^1+a^2w_t^2\ge a^1y_t^1+a^2y_t^2-D_t,\qquad w_t^1+w_t^2\ge y_t^1+y_t^2-R_t.a1wt1​+a2wt2​≥a1yt1​+a2yt2​−Dt​,wt1​+wt2​≥yt1​+yt2​−Rt​.

The objective Jt(wt)J_t(w_t)Jt​(wt​) adds the current cost coefficients (ajpt+htj−ct+1j)wtj(a^jp_t+h_t^j-c_{t+1}^j)w_t^j(ajpt​+htj​−ct+1j​)wtj​, where pt=et+σtp_t=e_t+\sigma_tpt​=et​+σt​, to the next-period value Vt+1(wt)V_{t+1}(w_t)Vt+1​(wt​). The value functions are determined backward from VT+1(x)=cT+11x1+cT+12x2V_{T+1}(x)=c_{T+1}^1x^1+c_{T+1}^2x^2VT+1​(x)=cT+11​x1+cT+12​x2 by the production and replenishment equations (1)–(5). Thus JtJ_tJt​ is an object computed from the model data and the dynamic program. These definitions follow §3 of the working paper.

Formalization targets

Optimal production rule

The goal is Theorem 1, pp. 15–16. There are two nonincreasing switching curves γt1,γt2\gamma_t^1,\gamma_t^2γt1​,γt2​ and two balancing curves αt,βt\alpha_t,\beta_tαt​,βt​ meeting at wˉt\bar w_twˉt​. Together they define the use-down-to and balancing (UB) rule of Definition 1. For every nonnegative D,RD,RD,R and every y∈R+2y\in\mathbb R_+^2y∈R+2​, the prescribed decision is feasible and optimal:

wt∗(y,D,R)∈arg min⁡w∈E2(y,D,R)Jt(w).w_t^*(y,D,R)\in\operatorname*{arg\,min}_{w\in E_2(y,D,R)}J_t(w).wt∗​(y,D,R)∈w∈E2​(y,D,R)argmin​Jt​(w).

The goal also includes the theorem's four minimization characterizations: wˉt\bar w_twˉt​ minimizes JtJ_tJt​ on the whole nonnegative orthant; each γtj\gamma_t^jγtj​ minimizes a one-coordinate section; αt(x)\alpha_t(x)αt​(x) minimizes on a1w1+a2w2=xa^1w^1+a^2w^2=xa1w1+a2w2=x; and βt(x)\beta_t(x)βt​(x) minimizes on w1+w2=xw^1+w^2=xw1+w2=x, for every x≥0x\ge0x≥0. The milestones retain Lemma 3(a), Lemma 3(d), the backward-induction claim for HtH_tHt​, Proposition 1 for the strictly convex perturbation, and Proposition 2 for the limiting policy.

Significance

The theorem identifies which material-use rule solves the production stage for any observed demand, capacity, and inventory. Its curves are independent of that period's realized DDD and RRR; those realizations enter the region boundaries and the rule's arguments. This structure supports the paper's later ordering-policy and computational work without replacing the original dynamic program with an unrelated one. The same formal definitions of feasible production, finite-support expectations, and coordinatewise value-function structure can be reused in other two-resource inventory models.

The working paper proves the result mathematically; the requested machine-checked work is to prove the Lean statements. The present proposal supplies definitions and theorem targets with sorry proof bodies. It does not claim that Theorem 1 or its milestones already have Lean proofs. A completed development would connect the backward dynamic program to the curve characterization and then prove that the region-specific action is optimal.

Difficulty

The replenishment-stage objective GtG_tGt​ is generally neither convex nor supermodular even when the subsequent value function has those properties, as the paper notes after Lemma 3. Consequently, taking a minimum in the replenishment recursion does not preserve the desired shape by an immediate standard argument. At the production stage, demand and capacity impose different coupled linear constraints on the two materials. Minimizing each material coordinate separately therefore does not produce a feasible or optimal decision in general. The source's region boundaries must account for which of these constraints binds and for their changes at D=a1RD=a^1RD=a1R and D=a2RD=a^2RD=a2R.

Formalization scope

Lean uses R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with componentwise order for two-material vectors. Each random quantity is a finite support with nonnegative real weights summing to one; expectations are finite sums. The two availability laws are multiplied as independent laws at each period, and +∞+\infty+∞ availability is represented by WithTop ℝ. The joint law of (Dt,Rt)(D_t,R_t)(Dt​,Rt​) need not factor. The dynamic program has periods 1,…,T1,\ldots,T1,…,T, and the terminal value is set at T+1T+1T+1. Its minima are defined as infima of feasible objective images; attainment is content of the results, not part of the definitions. Lower-growth claims use eventual real inequalities for every positive error, with the other inventory coordinate fixed and nonnegative.

The paper describes revenues and costs as monetary amounts and uses sign conditions in its proof of Lemma 3. The Lean standing predicate makes explicit et,htj,ctj≥0e_t,h_t^j,c_t^j\ge0et​,htj​,ctj​≥0, ctj+htj>0c_t^j+h_t^j>0ctj​+htj​>0, aj>0a^j>0aj>0, and T>0T>0T>0, in addition to the paper's σt>0\sigma_t>0σt​>0 and a1<a2a^1<a^2a1<a2. These assumptions are disclosed because without them the stated coercivity and attainment claims may fail. The objective in the goal is precisely JtJ_tJt​ produced by the full backward recursion; allowing an arbitrary objective with assumed structural properties would omit the dynamic-programming content.

Definition 1 calls its six regions a partition. At D≤a1RD\le a^1RD≤a1R, two printed regions can overlap; a concrete Lean check is included locally. The formal policy follows the page's displayed order when more than one region matches. Region coverage is asserted for all nonnegative D,RD,RD,R, and pairwise disjointness is asserted only when a1R<Da^1R<Da1R<D. The first-match convention and corrected partition claim are documented with the counterexample for review. The piecewise formulas for KjK^jKj, LjL^jLj, and γˉj\bar\gamma^jγˉ​j retain their source inequalities. Contributions establishing feasibility, curve existence, uniqueness for the perturbed problem, and the induction step are all useful to the mission.

Selected references

  • Q. Chen, I. Duenyas, and S. Jasin, Optimal Use and Replenishment of Two Substitutable Raw Materials in a Nonstationary Capacitated Make-to-Order Production System, SSRN working paper 2801786, version of 2016-06-28. SSRN.
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Machine LearningOptimizationRandom Matrix Theory+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data: Spectrally Initialized Vanilla Gradient Descent Recovers the Tensor Factors at a Linear Rate to Near-Optimal ℓ2 and ℓ2,∞ AccuracyResearch Paper

Motivation

A partially observed array with three indices appears when data record relationships among triples of objects. If its entries have a low-rank structure, one can hope to recover the full array from far fewer than d3d^3d3 measurements. Cai, Li, Poor and Chen study this problem when the measurements are noisy and only a random subset of entries is seen. Their result gives a statistical error bound for a concrete two-stage method: spectral initialization followed by ordinary gradient descent on a nonconvex loss. It is a known theorem, proved in the pinned preprint, rather than an open conjecture.

Setting

The unknown symmetric order-three tensor is T⋆∈Rd×d×dT^\star\in\mathbb R^{d\times d\times d}T⋆∈Rd×d×d. It has a CP decomposition T⋆=∑s=1r(us⋆)⊗3T^\star=\sum_{s=1}^r(u_s^\star)^{\otimes3}T⋆=∑s=1r​(us⋆​)⊗3, where the nonzero columns us⋆u_s^\starus⋆​ form U⋆∈Rd×rU^\star\in\mathbb R^{d\times r}U⋆∈Rd×r. Each unordered triple of coordinates is sampled independently with probability ppp; its six permutations share one sampling decision. On a sampled triple the observation is Tijk⋆+EijkT^\star_{ijk}+E_{ijk}Tijk⋆​+Eijk​, with symmetric, centered, independent sub-Gaussian noise of variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2. The observed tensor TTT vanishes outside the sampled set Ω\OmegaΩ.

For a candidate factor matrix U=[u1,…,ur]U=[u_1,\ldots,u_r]U=[u1​,…,ur​], the objective is

f(U)=16p∥PΩ ⁣(∑s=1rus⊗3−T)∥F2.f(U)=\frac{1}{6p}\left\|P_\Omega\!\left(\sum_{s=1}^r u_s^{\otimes3}-T\right)\right\|_F^2.f(U)=6p1​​PΩ​(s=1∑r​us⊗3​−T)​F2​.

Algorithm 2 obtains a leading rrr-dimensional eigenspace from an off-diagonal Gram matrix of the mode-one unfolding of p−1Tp^{-1}Tp−1T. Algorithm 3 uses Gaussian restarts, leading singular vectors, and greedy pruning to turn that subspace into a factor matrix U0U^0U0. Algorithm 1 then applies the gradient step to fff. Eigenvalue ties, leading singular-vector choices, and pruning ties can produce several admissible executions; the result concerns every execution.

Incoherence μ\muμ measures how evenly the tensor and factors spread across coordinates and how nearly orthogonal distinct factors are. The condition number κ\kappaκ is the ratio of the largest to smallest factor norm. Write λmin⁡⋆=min⁡s∥us⋆∥23\lambda^\star_{\min}=\min_s\|u_s^\star\|_2^3λmin⋆​=mins​∥us⋆​∥23​ and λmax⁡⋆=max⁡s∥us⋆∥23\lambda^\star_{\max}=\max_s\|u_s^\star\|_2^3λmax⋆​=maxs​∥us⋆​∥23​. Distances dist⁡F\operatorname{dist}_FdistF​, dist⁡∞\operatorname{dist}_\inftydist∞​, and dist⁡2,∞\operatorname{dist}_{2,\infty}dist2,∞​ minimize their respective matrix norms over permutations of the rrr columns.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2.4, in the bounded-rank, bounded-incoherence, bounded-condition-number regime. Under its printed sampling, noise, restart, threshold and step-size conditions, for every 0≤t≤d50\le t\le d^50≤t≤d5 it asserts, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,

dist⁡F(Ut,U⋆)≤(C1ρt+C2σλmin⁡⋆dlog⁡dp)∥U⋆∥F,\operatorname{dist}_F(U^t,U^\star)\le\left(C_1\rho^t+C_2\frac{\sigma}{\lambda^\star_{\min}}\sqrt{\frac{d\log d}{p}}\right)\|U^\star\|_F,distF​(Ut,U⋆)≤(C1​ρt+C2​λmin⋆​σ​pdlogd​​)∥U⋆∥F​, dist⁡∞(Ut,U⋆)≤dist⁡2,∞(Ut,U⋆)≤(C3ρt+C4σλmin⁡⋆dlog⁡dp)∥U⋆∥2,∞.\operatorname{dist}_\infty(U^t,U^\star)\le\operatorname{dist}_{2,\infty}(U^t,U^\star)\le\left(C_3\rho^t+C_4\frac{\sigma}{\lambda^\star_{\min}}\sqrt{\frac{d\log d}{p}}\right)\|U^\star\|_{2,\infty}.dist∞​(Ut,U⋆)≤dist2,∞​(Ut,U⋆)≤(C3​ρt+C4​λmin⋆​σ​pdlogd​​)∥U⋆∥2,∞​.

The rate is fixed to ρ=1−λmin⁡⋆,4/3η/5\rho=1-\lambda_{\min}^{\star,4/3}\eta/5ρ=1−λmin⋆,4/3​η/5, consistent with the paper's local-convergence lemmas. Milestones formalize the gradient identity (36), local Hessian bounds (Lemma 5.1), spectral-subspace recovery (Lemma 5.7), factor retrieval (Theorem 5.9), and the paper's general-parameter recovery theorem (Theorem 2.8). The latter makes the dependence on μ\muμ and rrr explicit.

Significance

The inequalities give two guarantees at once: geometric reduction of initialization error and an explicit noise floor. The 2,∞2,\infty2,∞ bound controls the error in each coordinate row, which a Frobenius estimate alone does not supply. Together with the tensor-entry corollaries in the paper, they explain the accuracy of this practical nonconvex method under random subsampling. The authors also specify how the sample probability, noise level, rank and incoherence interact, so the result can be compared to other tensor-completion methods.

This mission asks for a machine-checked version of the known result. Its published ψ₂ norm definition is reused; the paper-specific tensor model, spectral initialization relations, loss and gradient iteration are new. The theorem statements compile with sorry, so none of their proofs is claimed as machine checked here. Proofs of the listed milestones, the main theorem, and faithful auxiliary concentration results are welcome; the paper's numerical experiments are outside this formalization.

Difficulty

The gradient loss is nonconvex, so global convexity cannot justify the iteration bound. The local Hessian estimate applies only near U⋆U^\starU⋆ in both Frobenius and rowwise norm. A Frobenius estimate alone cannot establish the rowwise condition at every iteration. The spectral initializer must also select individual factors from a subspace despite nearly tied eigenvalues and noisy tensor contractions. These are the points where a direct appeal to standard smooth-gradient-descent theory stops short of the stated result.

Formalization scope

Coordinates are Fin d and Fin r, with zero-based indexing; the PDF uses one-based indices. All logarithms are natural. Tensor and matrix norms are explicit finite-coordinate Euclidean norms. Minima over permutations range over all permutations of Fin r, and maxima in the incoherence parameters range over the indices specified by Definition 2.1. Sampling is on sorted triples, then extended by symmetry. The probability model is a single probability space carrying the sampling indicators, noise variables and Gaussian restarts, jointly independent; the paper leaves some cross-family independence implicit. Noise has mean zero, variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2, and ψ₂ norm at most σ\sigmaσ using the published extended-nonnegative norm. The last bound makes the paper's sub-Gaussian scale explicit.

The statements use d≥d0≥2d\ge d_0\ge2d≥d0​≥2, r≥1r\ge1r≥1, nonzero true factor columns, 0<p≤10<p\le10<p≤1, and σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0. Theorems 2.8 and 5.9 use r≥2r\ge2r≥2 and round their real-valued restart count up to a natural number; this handles the boundary where log⁡r=0\log r=0logr=0. Theorem 2.4 places its claimed absolute error constants before the rank and incoherence bounds and all instance data. Probability is expressed as the outer measure of the bad event, since admissible-execution predicates quantify over choices and need not be measurable. Each good event explicitly asserts that an admissible execution exists before requiring the bounds for every execution; otherwise a failed pruning run would make a universal claim vacuous.

The remaining reusable infrastructure includes concentration for symmetric sampled tensors, finite-dimensional spectral perturbation with ties, and derivative estimates for the cubic factor map. The paper's leave-one-out iteration lemmas and their auxiliary estimators are not included in this initial milestone list; they remain natural contributions toward the full proof.

Selected references

  • C. Cai, G. Li, H. V. Poor and Y. Chen, Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data, arXiv:1911.04436v2, 2021; published in Operations Research 70(2), 2022. Preprint.
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Definition 2.5.6 for the ψ₂ norm. Publisher DOI.
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Algebraic TopologyAlgorithmic Game TheoryTopology·Captain: mikedeng1

Equipartition of a Segment: Every Continuous Function on Subsegments of [0, 1] Vanishing on Degenerate Segments Takes Equal Values on Some Partition of [0, 1] into m SegmentsResearch Paper

Motivation

In fair division, a value may be assigned to each interval that a cut produces. If the value is continuous in the interval's endpoints, an equal-value partition is a natural target. Some valuations are nonnegative and additive, but a difference of competing measures or a signed utility need have neither property. Avvakumov and Karasev establish equal-value partitions even when the value changes sign and is not additive, provided it vanishes on degenerate intervals. Their result is used by Bogomolnaia and Moulin in work on guarantees for fair division. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 1–2; Bogomolnaia and Moulin.

The paper identifies earlier special cases: a nonnegative valuation follows from the Knaster–Kuratowski–Mazurkiewicz theorem; prime-power numbers of parts with a valuation of varying sign were known through degree-theoretic results; additive valuations admit an elementary argument. The remaining case permits a sign-changing, nonadditive valuation and an arbitrary positive number of parts. The authors distinguish this from an envy-free division problem with separate valuations for several players, which they state remains open outside prime-power cases. Avvakumov and Karasev, p. 2; Avvakumov and Karasev, Envy-free division using mapping degree; Meunier and Zerbib.

Setting

Write I\mathcal II for the set of all subsegments I=[a,b]I=[a,b]I=[a,b] of [0,1][0,1][0,1] with 0≤a≤b≤10\le a\le b\le10≤a≤b≤1. An interval may be degenerate, meaning a=ba=ba=b. A real-valued function fff on I\mathcal II is continuous when its value varies continuously with the two endpoints. The required boundary condition is f([a,a])=0f([a,a])=0f([a,a])=0 for every a∈[0,1]a\in[0,1]a∈[0,1]. No sign, monotonicity, or additivity condition is imposed. A partition into mmm parts is a sequence 0=x0≤x1≤⋯≤xm=10=x_0\le x_1\le\cdots\le x_m=10=x0​≤x1​≤⋯≤xm​=1, so its parts [xj−1,xj][x_{j-1},x_j][xj−1​,xj​] may also be degenerate. Avvakumov and Karasev, Theorem 1.1, pp. 1–2.

The intermediate setting is a nice multivalued function. Its graph is a compact subset ZZZ of I×(−1,1)\mathcal I\times(-1,1)I×(−1,1). The graph separates the bottom I×{−1}\mathcal I\times\{-1\}I×{−1} from the top I×{1}\mathcal I\times\{1\}I×{1} inside the cylinder C=I×[−1,1]C=\mathcal I\times[-1,1]C=I×[−1,1]: those two sides lie in different connected components of C∖ZC\setminus ZC∖Z. A representation of a nice graph is a continuous real function φ\varphiφ on CCC that is negative on the bottom, positive on the top, and whose zero set is the graph. The paper passes between graphs and representations in Lemma 2.2. Avvakumov and Karasev, Definition 2.1 and Lemma 2.2, p. 2.

For a prime ppp, a segment I=[a,b]I=[a,b]I=[a,b], and a value yyy, a zero partition is a sequence a=x0≤⋯≤xp=ba=x_0\le\cdots\le x_p=ba=x0​≤⋯≤xp​=b such that φ([xj−1,xj],y)=0\varphi([x_{j-1},x_j],y)=0φ([xj−1​,xj​],y)=0 for each j=1,…,pj=1,\ldots,pj=1,…,p. The set Zp(φ)Z_p(\varphi)Zp​(φ) contains exactly those pairs (I,y)(I,y)(I,y) that admit a zero partition. This is the projection to the cylinder of the paper's simultaneous-solution set SSS for labeled partitions. Avvakumov and Karasev, equation (4.1) and Claim 4.4, pp. 7–9.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 1.1: for every positive integer mmm and every continuous fff satisfying the degenerate-interval condition, there are possibly repeated cut points with a common value:

0=x0≤x1≤⋯≤xm=1,f([x0,x1])=⋯=f([xm−1,xm]).0=x_0\le x_1\le\cdots\le x_m=1,\qquad f([x_0,x_1])=\cdots=f([x_{m-1},x_m]).0=x0​≤x1​≤⋯≤xm​=1,f([x0​,x1​])=⋯=f([xm−1​,xm​]).

The theorem is already posed as the Open platform statement FairGuarantees.DivideChoose.theorem_of_4; this mission references that exact statement as its goal. It supplies the paper's supporting statements, including Lemma 2.2 on graph representations, Claim 4.4 on separation by projected zero partitions, and the prime-step Lemma 2.3. The latter asserts that, when φ([a,a],y)=y\varphi([a,a],y)=yφ([a,a],y)=y, there is a represented nice graph with the same degenerate identity whose zeros each yield a zero partition for φ\varphiφ. The milestone list includes the fixed-segment and continuous-family statements used to characterize Zp(φ)Z_p(\varphi)Zp​(φ), and equation (4.2) describing its degenerate boundary. Avvakumov and Karasev, Lemmas 2.2–2.3, pp. 2–3; Claims 4.3–4.4 and equation (4.2), pp. 8–9.

Significance

The theorem guarantees equal values for any positive number of consecutive parts under only endpoint continuity and the zero-on-degenerates condition. It covers valuations for which nonnegative or additive special-case results give no conclusion. It also provides the theorem invoked in the fair-guarantee application cited by the authors. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 1–2; Bogomolnaia and Moulin.

The mathematical result was proved in the paper; the platform's theorem statement remains Open and lacks a machine-checked proof there. Formalizing the paper's intermediate claims makes its topological assumptions and its treatment of degenerate parts explicit. The definitions of a separating graph, its representation, and zero partitions can also be reused for related partition problems. The present mission states the paper's prime-step targets, leaving the proofs and the underlying equivariant topology as work for solvers.

Difficulty

For a fixed signed valuation, continuity alone does not select one common value that works across every piece of an arbitrary partition. The nonnegative case has a simplex-covering argument, but that argument does not directly control values of both signs. In the paper's general case, the difficult claim is that the projected simultaneous-zero set separates an entire cylinder, even as the segment varies. Its source proof requires a mod-ppp statement for a space of labeled partitions and control of the resulting solution set. A further boundary issue arises on degenerate segments: a representation of the projected graph must satisfy ψ([a,a],y)=y\psi([a,a],y)=yψ([a,a],y)=y, not merely have the right zeros. Avvakumov and Karasev, pp. 2, 7–10.

Formalization scope

Lean represents I=[a,b]I=[a,b]I=[a,b] by the endpoint pair (a,b)(a,b)(a,b) with 0≤a≤b≤10\le a\le b\le10≤a≤b≤1. The cylinder uses the closed value range [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1]; a nice graph lies in its open interior (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1). Functions are total Lean functions, but only their values on this cylinder enter the definitions and results. Continuity is required on the cylinder. Separation uses connected components of its complement, as in Definition 2.1, and explicitly requires the bottom and top to avoid the graph. This prevents a graph containing a boundary side from satisfying separation vacuously.

Every prime-step claim assumes ppp prime, the representation's strict boundary signs, and the degenerate identity. Zero partitions have exactly ppp consecutive parts whose endpoints are pinned to the original segment; repeated cuts are allowed. The goal reference likewise permits degenerate parts and assumes m≥1m\ge1m≥1. The projected set is defined through existence of an ordinary ordered partition, independent of how the paper labels partitions in its configuration space. The needed existing Lean notions include ContinuousOn, IsCompact, connectedComponentIn, finite index types, and Nat.Prime. A complete proof development also needs results about the paper's labeled-partition complex, equivariant cycles and transverse maps. Contributions establishing that reusable topology, as well as proofs of the stated milestones, are within scope. Avvakumov and Karasev, §§2–4.

Selected references

  • Sergey Avvakumov and Roman Karasev, Equipartition of a Segment, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023. arXiv:2009.09862v4.
  • Anna Bogomolnaia and Hervé Moulin, Guarantees in Fair Division: General or Monotone Preferences, 2019. arXiv:1911.10009v3.
  • Sergey Avvakumov and Roman Karasev, Envy-Free Division Using Mapping Degree, Mathematika 67, 2021. arXiv:1907.11183.
  • Frédéric Meunier and Shira Zerbib, Envy-Free Cake Division Without Assuming the Players Prefer Nonempty Pieces, Israel Journal of Mathematics 234, 2019. arXiv:1804.00449.
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Graph TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Dynamic Contagion Risk Model with Recovery Features: Fluid Limit for the Final Fraction of Failed Nodes in Threshold Contagion with Growth on the Configuration ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

Financial networks, supply chains and contact networks share a failure mode: a node fails when enough of its counterparties have failed, and its failure in turn weakens its own counterparties. Threshold contagion on random graphs is the standard mathematical model of this. Amini, Cont and Minca (Resilience to contagion in financial networks, Mathematical Finance 2016) proved that on a configuration-model network the final fraction of failed nodes concentrates, as the network grows, around an explicit value determined by the smallest fixed point of a one-dimensional map.

In that model thresholds are fixed. In practice institutions recover while a crisis unfolds: capital is raised, earnings accrue, and a node that survives long enough can absorb more losses than at the start. Amini, Minca and Sulem (A Dynamic Contagion Risk Model with Recovery Features, Mathematics of Operations Research 2022; the mission follows the authors' preprint of February 2021) add this recovery feature: every surviving node's threshold grows linearly in calendar time, at a rate proportional to its connectivity. The main result, Theorem 5, identifies the scaling limit of the cascade with growth. It is the basis of the paper's analysis of equilibrium connectivity choice (§3), where agents trade off the rewards of links against contagion risk.

Setting

A network has nnn nodes. Node iii has a connectivity λi∈N\lambda_i\in\mathbb Nλi​∈N (in-degree and out-degree both equal λi\lambda_iλi​) and an integer initial threshold θi∈N\theta_i\in\mathbb Nθi​∈N. The empirical type distribution is μλ,θ(n)=#{i:θi=θ,λi=λ}/n\mu^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}=\#\{i:\theta_i=\theta,\lambda_i=\lambda\}/nμλ,θ(n)​=#{i:θi​=θ,λi​=λ}/n and the mean connectivity is λˉ(n)=∑λ,θλμλ,θ(n)\bar\lambda^{(n)}=\sum_{\lambda,\theta}\lambda\mu^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}λˉ(n)=∑λ,θ​λμλ,θ(n)​. Two regularity conditions are assumed: (C1) μλ,θ(n)→μλ,θ\mu^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}\to\mu_{\lambda,\theta}μλ,θ(n)​→μλ,θ​ for a probability distribution μ\muμ on N2\mathbb N^2N2; (C2) λˉ(n)→λˉ=∑λμλ,θ∈(0,∞)\bar\lambda^{(n)}\to\bar\lambda=\sum\lambda\mu_{\lambda,\theta}\in(0,\infty)λˉ(n)→λˉ=∑λμλ,θ​∈(0,∞).

Each node owns λi\lambda_iλi​ out-going and λi\lambda_iλi​ in-coming half-edges. The directed configuration model matches out-half-edges to in-half-edges by a uniformly random bijection; self-loops and multiple links are allowed.

The cascade: at time 000 the nodes with θi=0\theta_i=0θi​=0 fail. Interactions happen at times Tk(n)T^{(n)}_kTk(n)​ whose gaps are i.i.d. exponential with rate nnn. At each interaction one unrevealed out-link of a failed node, chosen uniformly, is revealed; its counterparty jjj gains one failed link and fails if its count of failed links reaches its current threshold θj+αλjTk(n)/λˉ(n)\theta_j+\alpha\lambda_jT^{(n)}_k/\bar\lambda^{(n)}θj​+αλj​Tk(n)​/λˉ(n), where 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 is the growth rate. Only surviving nodes grow. The cascade stops at kstop(n)k^{(n)}_{\rm stop}kstop(n)​, when no unrevealed failed link remains; ∣Df(n)∣|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|∣Df(n)​∣ is the number of failed nodes and Sλ,θ(n)(kstop(n))S^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}(k^{(n)}_{\rm stop})Sλ,θ(n)​(kstop(n)​) the number of survivors of type (λ,θ)(\lambda,\theta)(λ,θ).

The limit objects: Pλ,θ,ℓ(π)P_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}(\pi)Pλ,θ,ℓ​(π) is the probability that the order statistics of ℓ\ellℓ i.i.d. uniform variables on [0,π][0,\pi][0,π] satisfy U(u)>(u−θ)/(αλ)U_{(u)}>(u-\theta)/(\alpha\lambda)U(u)​>(u−θ)/(αλ) for u=θ+1,…,ℓu=\theta+1,\dots,\ellu=θ+1,…,ℓ; Bλ,0α=1B^\alpha_{\lambda,0}=1Bλ,0α​=1 and, for θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1,

Bλ,θα(π)=1−∑ℓ=0min⁡{⌈θ+αλπ⌉−1,λ}(λℓ)πℓ(1−π)λ−ℓPλ,θ,ℓ(π);B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(\pi)=1-\sum_{\ell=0}^{\min\{\lceil\theta+\alpha\lambda\pi\rceil-1,\lambda\}}\binom{\lambda}{\ell}\pi^\ell(1-\pi)^{\lambda-\ell}P_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}(\pi);Bλ,θα​(π)=1−ℓ=0∑min{⌈θ+αλπ⌉−1,λ}​(ℓλ​)πℓ(1−π)λ−ℓPλ,θ,ℓ​(π);

Jα(π)=∑λ,θλμλ,θBλ,θα(π)/λˉJ^\alpha(\pi)=\sum_{\lambda,\theta}\lambda\mu_{\lambda,\theta}B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(\pi)/\bar\lambdaJα(π)=∑λ,θ​λμλ,θ​Bλ,θα​(π)/λˉ; and the relaxed fixed point π∗=min⁡{π∈[0,1]:Jα(π)≤π}\pi^*=\min\{\pi\in[0,1]:J^\alpha(\pi)\le\pi\}π∗=min{π∈[0,1]:Jα(π)≤π}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (corrected)

With L=∑λ,θμλ,θBλ,θα(π∗)L=\sum_{\lambda,\theta}\mu_{\lambda,\theta}B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(\pi^*)L=∑λ,θ​μλ,θ​Bλ,θα​(π∗): for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, with high probability ∣Df(n)∣/n≥L−ε|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|/n\ge L-\varepsilon∣Df(n)​∣/n≥L−ε. (i) If π∗=1\pi^*=1π∗=1 and μ0,θ=0\mu_{0,\theta}=0μ0,θ​=0 for θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1, then ∣Df(n)∣/n→1|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|/n\to1∣Df(n)​∣/n→1 in probability. (ii) If π∗<1\pi^*<1π∗<1 is a stable fixed point (Jα(π)<πJ^\alpha(\pi)<\piJα(π)<π just to the right of π∗\pi^*π∗), then

∣Df(n)∣n→pL,Sλ,θ(n)(kstop(n))n→pμλ,θ(1−Bλ,θα(π∗)).\frac{|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|}{n}\xrightarrow{p}L,\qquad\frac{S^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}(k^{(n)}_{\rm stop})}{n}\xrightarrow{p}\mu_{\lambda,\theta}\big(1-B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(\pi^*)\big).n∣Df(n)​∣​p​L,nSλ,θ(n)​(kstop(n)​)​p​μλ,θ​(1−Bλ,θα​(π∗)).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 16: a recursion in ℓ\ellℓ for Pλ,θ,ℓ(t)P_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}(t)Pλ,θ,ℓ​(t), for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and θ<ℓ≤λ\theta<\ell\le\lambdaθ<ℓ≤λ, valid for t≥t^λ,θ,ℓ=(ℓ−θ)λˉ/(αλ)t\ge\hat t_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}=(\ell-\theta)\bar\lambda/(\alpha\lambda)t≥t^λ,θ,ℓ​=(ℓ−θ)λˉ/(αλ).
  2. Lemma 15: for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and 0<θ≤λ0<\theta\le\lambda0<θ≤λ, the piecewise linear system (DE) for the rescaled numbers of surviving nodes with ℓ\ellℓ failed links has a unique continuous solution on [0,λˉ)[0,\bar\lambda)[0,λˉ), in closed form.
  3. (24)–(25): the limiting failed fraction of a class is μλ,θBλ,θα(t/λˉ)\mu_{\lambda,\theta}B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(t/\bar\lambda)μλ,θ​Bλ,θα​(t/λˉ), and the limiting number of unrevealed failed links is λˉ(Jα(t/λˉ)−t/λˉ)\bar\lambda(J^\alpha(t/\bar\lambda)-t/\bar\lambda)λˉ(Jα(t/λˉ)−t/λˉ).
  4. (27)–(28): for k=γλˉ(n)n+o(n)k=\gamma\bar\lambda^{(n)}n+o(n)k=γλˉ(n)n+o(n), Tk(n)→γλˉT^{(n)}_k\to\gamma\bar\lambdaTk(n)​→γλˉ in probability.
  5. Remark 6: the minimum defining π∗\pi^*π∗ is attained.

Significance

Theorem 5 gives the final size of a cascade with recovery as an explicit function of the type distribution and the growth rate. The paper uses it to define each agent's expected reward as a function of its connectivity and to study the equilibrium of the resulting connectivity game (§3). Without the theorem, the equilibrium analysis would rest on the heuristic of §2.3 alone.

On the formal side, the platform has no random graph model of configuration type, no network contagion process and no fluid limit of a random cascade. This mission introduces all three. The result is proved on paper (by Wormald's differential-equation method); none of it is machine-checked. The work is to formalize the proof, and the milestones are self-contained pieces of it: an order-statistic identity, an explicit ODE solution, an algebraic identification of the limit, a concentration bound for sums of exponentials, and a fixed-point existence result.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to view the cascade as a Markov chain in the counts of surviving nodes by type and number of failed links, and to apply Wormald's theorem directly. Two things break. First, with growth a node's survival depends on the whole history of its failed-link count, not on its current value, so the state space grows with time: new states become relevant at each growth time t^λ,θ,ℓ\hat t_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}t^λ,θ,ℓ​, and the fluid limit has to be established inductively on successive time intervals. Second, the cascade stops at a random time, near the first zero of the limiting number of unrevealed failed links. Showing that the stopping time concentrates requires the stability condition on π∗\pi^*π∗ and a truncation of the type distribution in the degree, since μ\muμ may have infinite support. The fixed point need not be a crossing point of a smooth map, so the identification of the stopping time is delicate even when the drift is known.

Formalization scope

  • Network. Half-edges of node iii are pairs (i,a)(i,a)(i,a) with a<λia<\lambda_ia<λi​; the matching is a uniformly random permutation of the half-edges. Each nnn has its own probability space: the matching, m=nλˉ(n)m=n\bar\lambda^{(n)}m=nλˉ(n) i.i.d. Exp(n)\mathrm{Exp}(n)Exp(n) gaps, and mmm i.i.d. uniform variables on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) that choose the revealed link (uniform among the available ones given the past). The probability of an event averages over permutations the product law of gaps and choices. "With high probability" and "in probability" are stated with explicit ε\varepsilonε and limits of these probabilities.
  • Cascade. Computed step by step from the randomness and run for mmm steps; ∣Df(n)∣|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|∣Df(n)​∣ and Sλ,θ(n)(kstop)S^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}(k_{\rm stop})Sλ,θ(n)​(kstop​) are read off the final state. A node fails when its failed links reach (not exceed) its threshold, as in every formula of the paper. Initially failed nodes are those with θi=0\theta_i=0θi​=0.
  • Limit objects. Order statistics are encoded by counting (U(u)>sU_{(u)}>sU(u)​>s iff fewer than uuu variables are ≤s\le s≤s), and probabilities as Lebesgue measures of subsets of [0,π]ℓ[0,\pi]^\ell[0,π]ℓ. Sums over types are tsums with summability hypotheses; μ\muμ is nonnegative with total mass 111.
  • Corrections, all labelled. (a) Bλ,0α:=1B^\alpha_{\lambda,0}:=1Bλ,0α​:=1; the printed formula gives a value below 111 for π>0\pi>0π>0, contradicting the paper's p. 9, and makes the theorem false. (b) Part (i) assumes no isolated nodes with a positive threshold. (c) Lemma 16 assumes t≥t^λ,θ,ℓt\ge\hat t_{\lambda,\theta,\ell}t≥t^λ,θ,ℓ​. (d) Lemma 15 is stated for 0<θ≤λ0<\theta\le\lambda0<θ≤λ, with uniqueness among continuous solutions, and reads the printed λˉ−u\bar\lambda-uλˉ−u as λˉ−t\bar\lambda-tλˉ−t. (e) (24) ends in μλ,θBλ,θα(t/λˉ)\mu_{\lambda,\theta}B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(t/\bar\lambda)μλ,θ​Bλ,θα​(t/λˉ), not μλ,θ(1−Bλ,θα(t/λˉ))\mu_{\lambda,\theta}(1-B^\alpha_{\lambda,\theta}(t/\bar\lambda))μλ,θ​(1−Bλ,θα​(t/λˉ)). "Stable fixed point" means Jα(π)<πJ^\alpha(\pi)<\piJα(π)<π on some interval (π∗,π∗+η)(\pi^*,\pi^*+\eta)(π∗,π∗+η).
  • No trivialization. ∣Df(n)∣|\mathcal D^{(n)}_f|∣Df(n)​∣ and Sλ,θ(n)S^{(n)}_{\lambda,\theta}Sλ,θ(n)​ are computed from the random matching, the gaps and the revelation order, never from BαB^\alphaBα or JαJ^\alphaJα; π∗\pi^*π∗ is defined from μ\muμ and α\alphaα, not taken as a parameter.
  • Not included. Theorem 3 (the case α=0\alpha=0α=0, cited from earlier work), the equilibrium results of §3, Wormald's theorem (Lemma 17, an external result), the in/out-degree extension (Theorem 18) and the displays (32)–(41) of the inductive argument.
  • Infrastructure. A complete proof needs Wormald's differential-equation method for Markov chains with bounded increments, concentration of the configuration model, and the elementary facts in the milestones. A general Wormald theorem and the configuration model are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either, as separate theorems, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Amini, A. Minca, A. Sulem, A dynamic contagion risk model with recovery features, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022 (preprint February 2021). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1174
  • H. Amini, R. Cont, A. Minca, Resilience to contagion in financial networks, Mathematical Finance, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12051
  • N. C. Wormald, Differential equations for random processes and random graphs, Annals of Applied Probability, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177004612
  • L. Warnke, On Wormald's differential equation method, arXiv:1905.08928, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.08928
  • B. Bollobás, A probabilistic proof of an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled regular graphs, European Journal of Combinatorics, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-6698(80)80030-8
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Learning over a Finite Action Set with Limited Switching: An Algorithm for Prediction From Experts Whose Regret and Number of Switches Are Both O(√(T log n log(1/δ))) with Probability 1 − δResearch Paper

Motivation

In prediction from experts (PFE), an online learner chooses one of nnn actions in each of TTT rounds, and an adversary assigns each action a loss in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Performance is measured by regret, the learner's total loss minus that of the best single action in hindsight. In many applications changing the action is itself costly: re-routing traffic, re-balancing a portfolio, re-deploying a model. The number of switches, rounds in which the action changes, is then a second resource to keep small.

It has long been known that both quantities can be kept at O(Tlog⁡n)O(\sqrt{T\log n})O(Tlogn​) in expectation. Kalai and Vempala's multiplicative Follow the Perturbed Leader (Kalai–Vempala 2005) and Devroye, Lugosi and Neu's random-walk perturbation (Devroye et al. 2015) both achieve this. Devroye et al. asked for guarantees that hold with high probability. A bound in expectation says little about a single run: the switch count of these algorithms can have heavy upper tails. Altschuler and Talwar (arXiv:1803.01548, COLT 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 2021) gave the first algorithms whose regret and switches are both O(Tlog⁡nlog⁡(1/δ))O(\sqrt{T\log n\log(1/\delta)})O(Tlognlog(1/δ)​) with probability 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. They used this to characterise the optimal regret under a hard switching budget, both for PFE and for multi-armed bandits.

Setting

A loss sequence is (ℓt)t≥1(\ell_t)_{t\ge1}(ℓt​)t≥1​ with ℓt:[n]→[0,1]\ell_t:[n]\to[0,1]ℓt​:[n]→[0,1]. The adversary is oblivious: it fixes the whole sequence before the game, independently of the learner's randomness. A randomized online algorithm A\mathcal AA draws internal randomness ω\omegaω from a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ). At round ttt it plays an action it∈[n]i_t\in[n]it​∈[n] that is a function of ω\omegaω and of the past losses ℓ1,…,ℓt−1\ell_1,\dots,\ell_{t-1}ℓ1​,…,ℓt−1​ only. This is full-information feedback: after round ttt the whole vector ℓt\ell_tℓt​ is revealed. Then

RegretT=∑t=1Tℓt(it)−min⁡i∈[n]∑t=1Tℓt(i),SwitchesT=#{t∈{2,…,T}:it≠it−1}.\mathrm{Regret}_T=\sum_{t=1}^T\ell_t(i_t)-\min_{i\in[n]}\sum_{t=1}^T\ell_t(i),\qquad \mathrm{Switches}_T=\#\{t\in\{2,\dots,T\}:i_t\ne i_{t-1}\}.RegretT​=t=1∑T​ℓt​(it​)−i∈[n]min​t=1∑T​ℓt​(i),SwitchesT​=#{t∈{2,…,T}:it​=it−1​}.

Follow the Perturbed Leader (FPL) with perturbations Pt(i)P_t(i)Pt​(i) plays at round ttt the minimiser of ∑s=0t−1(ℓs(i)+Ps+1(i))\sum_{s=0}^{t-1}(\ell_s(i)+P_{s+1}(i))∑s=0t−1​(ℓs​(i)+Ps+1​(i)), with ℓ0:=0\ell_0:=0ℓ0​:=0. FPLε∗^*_\varepsilonε∗​ perturbs only once, with P1(i)=−R(i)/εP_1(i)=-R(i)/\varepsilonP1​(i)=−R(i)/ε, where R(1),…,R(n)R(1),\dots,R(n)R(1),…,R(n) are i.i.d. standard exponential.

Framework 1 turns an algorithm A\mathcal AA into a batched algorithm B\mathcal BB. B\mathcal BB runs a copy of A\mathcal AA with fresh randomness. The copy sees only the losses since its epoch began. The epoch ends just before the copy would exceed S′S'S′ switches, and a new copy starts there. EEE is the number of epochs used in TTT rounds. BFPLδ∗^*_\deltaδ∗​ is Framework 1 applied to FPLε∗^*_\varepsilonε∗​ with

N=⌈log⁡(2/δ)⌉,ε=12Nlog⁡n/T,S′=135Tlog⁡n/N.N=\lceil\log(2/\delta)\rceil,\qquad \varepsilon=\tfrac12\sqrt{N\log n/T},\qquad S'=135\sqrt{T\log n/N}.N=⌈log(2/δ)⌉,ε=21​Nlogn/T​,S′=135Tlogn/N​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 8)

There is an absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 such that for all T,n≥1T,n\ge1T,n≥1 and δ∈(0,12)\delta\in(0,\tfrac12)δ∈(0,21​) some randomized online algorithm A\mathcal AA satisfies, for every oblivious loss sequence,

P(RegretT(A)≤CTlog⁡nlog⁡(1/δ) ∧ SwitchesT(A)≤CTlog⁡nlog⁡(1/δ))≥1−δ.\mathbb P\Big(\mathrm{Regret}_T(\mathcal A)\le C\sqrt{T\log n\log(1/\delta)}\ \wedge\ \mathrm{Switches}_T(\mathcal A)\le C\sqrt{T\log n\log(1/\delta)}\Big)\ge1-\delta.P(RegretT​(A)≤CTlognlog(1/δ)​ ∧ SwitchesT​(A)≤CTlognlog(1/δ)​)≥1−δ.

The algorithm may depend on TTT, nnn and δ\deltaδ, as on the page, but not on the losses. The constant is left unspecified, so a sharper constant would not change the goal.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7 (p. 13): E[Switchesτ(FPLε∗)]≤(ετ+2log⁡n)/(1−ε)\mathbb E[\mathrm{Switches}_\tau(\mathrm{FPL}^*_\varepsilon)]\le(\varepsilon\tau+2\log n)/(1-\varepsilon)E[Switchesτ​(FPLε∗​)]≤(ετ+2logn)/(1−ε).
  2. Lemma 3 (p. 10): if E[Switchesτ0(A)]≤cAτ0\mathbb E[\mathrm{Switches}_{\tau_0}(\mathcal A)]\le c_{\mathcal A}\sqrt{\tau_0}E[Switchesτ0​​(A)]≤cA​τ0​​ with τ0=min⁡(T,⌈8T/N⌉)\tau_0=\min(T,\lceil8T/N\rceil)τ0​=min(T,⌈8T/N⌉), then Framework 1 with S′=23cAT/NS'=23c_{\mathcal A}\sqrt{T/N}S′=23cA​T/N​ has P(E>N)≤e−N\mathbb P(E>N)\le e^{-N}P(E>N)≤e−N and P(SwitchesT>N(S′+1))≤e−N\mathbb P(\mathrm{Switches}_T>N(S'+1))\le e^{-N}P(SwitchesT​>N(S′+1))≤e−N.
  3. Lemma 17 (p. 27), Be-The-Leader: ∑t=0Tℓt(it+1)≤∑t=0Tℓt(i)\sum_{t=0}^T\ell_t(i_{t+1})\le\sum_{t=0}^T\ell_t(i)∑t=0T​ℓt​(it+1​)≤∑t=0T​ℓt​(i).
  4. Lemma 5 (p. 13): RegretT(FPL)≤M(SwitchesT+1)+max⁡i∑t=1T+1Pt(i)−∑t=1T+1Pt(it)\mathrm{Regret}_T(\mathrm{FPL})\le M(\mathrm{Switches}_T+1)+\max_i\sum_{t=1}^{T+1}P_t(i)-\sum_{t=1}^{T+1}P_t(i_t)RegretT​(FPL)≤M(SwitchesT​+1)+maxi​∑t=1T+1​Pt​(i)−∑t=1T+1​Pt​(it​).
  5. Corollary 6 for BFPL∗^*∗ (p. 14): RegretT≤SwitchesT+E+∑e<Emax⁡iRe(i)/ε\mathrm{Regret}_T\le\mathrm{Switches}_T+E+\sum_{e<E}\max_iR_e(i)/\varepsilonRegretT​≤SwitchesT​+E+∑e<E​maxi​Re​(i)/ε.
  6. Lemma 18 (p. 28): E[etX]≤nt/(1−t)\mathbb E[e^{tX}]\le n^t/(1-t)E[etX]≤nt/(1−t) for the maximum XXX of nnn standard exponentials.
  7. Lemma 9 (p. 14): P(∑e=1Nmax⁡iRe(i)>6Nlog⁡n)≤e−N\mathbb P(\sum_{e=1}^N\max_iR_e(i)>6N\log n)\le e^{-N}P(∑e=1N​maxi​Re​(i)>6Nlogn)≤e−N for N,n≥2N,n\ge2N,n≥2.
  8. Theorem 8 (p. 13): BFPLδ∗^*_\deltaδ∗​ itself satisfies the bound of Theorem 1 for n≥2n\ge2n≥2.

Significance

The result separates two notions of "optimal". Expected-value bounds on switching do not control a single run, and the paper shows (Appendix B) that naive restarting does not concentrate. Theorem 1 is the black box behind the paper's later results: the Θ~\tilde\ThetaΘ~ characterisation of minimax regret under a switching budget SSS, with a phase transition at S≈Tlog⁡nS\approx\sqrt{T\log n}S≈Tlogn​, and the switching-cost corollary obtained by mini-batching. Framework 1 is generic: any algorithm with an expected switching bound of order τ\sqrt\tauτ​ gains a high-probability one.

The paper result is proved, but none of it has been machine-checked. A formalization yields a verified online-learning protocol with oblivious adversaries, a restart framework with fresh randomness, and verified tail bounds for maxima of exponentials. Formalizing it also repairs four printed slips, listed under Formalization scope.

Difficulty

The obvious approach runs A\mathcal AA about log⁡(1/δ)\log(1/\delta)log(1/δ) times in fixed-length blocks and applies Markov's inequality in each. It fails: a single block can use far too many switches with probability that is not small enough. Framework 1 therefore uses epochs of random length, ended by the switch budget. The epoch lengths are then dependent, and the final epoch is truncated at TTT. The concentration argument has to handle both. On the regret side, Lemma 5 is pointwise, but summing it over random epochs and then controlling the sum of perturbation maxima needs a sub-exponential tail bound for maxima of exponentials.

Formalization scope

Rounds are 1-based, and losses are ℓ:N→Fin n→R\ell:\mathbb N\to\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathbb Rℓ:N→Finn→R with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. An online algorithm has type Ω→(t:N)→(Fin(t−1)→Fin n→R)→Fin n\Omega\to(t:\mathbb N)\to(\mathrm{Fin}(t-1)\to\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathbb R)\to\mathrm{Fin}\,nΩ→(t:N)→(Fin(t−1)→Finn→R)→Finn: at round ttt it sees only ω\omegaω and ℓ1,…,ℓt−1\ell_1,\dots,\ell_{t-1}ℓ1​,…,ℓt−1​. The adversary is a deterministic loss sequence, quantified after the algorithm, which is the page's own reduction (p. 5). High-probability statements bound the outer measure of the failure event by δ\deltaδ. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of natural-valued switch counts. The O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) of Theorems 1 and 8 is an absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 chosen before TTT, nnn and δ\deltaδ. Argmins break ties towards the lowest index. Framework 1 takes randomness ω:N→Ω\omega:\mathbb N\to\Omegaω:N→Ω under the infinite product measure, one coordinate per epoch.

Three formalizations of the goal would be trivial, and all are excluded. An algorithm that could see ℓt\ell_tℓt​ or the future would simply play the best action in hindsight. A constant CCC chosen after TTT could be C=TC=TC=T. A loss sequence chosen before the algorithm would let the algorithm depend on it.

The printed slips and how they are handled:

  • FPL* sign. The paper perturbs by +R/ε+R/\varepsilon+R/ε. With one-sided exponentials that variant violates Lemma 7, so the perturbation is −R/ε-R/\varepsilon−R/ε.
  • Lemma 5 and Corollary 6. These need M(SwitchesT+1)M(\mathrm{Switches}_T+1)M(SwitchesT​+1) and +E+E+E; the printed forms fail at T=1T=1T=1.
  • Lemma 3. It takes an integer N≥2N\ge2N≥2 with δ/2=e−N\delta/2=e^{-N}δ/2=e−N, it assumes the switching hypothesis only at the horizon the proof uses, and it counts one boundary switch per epoch.
  • BFPLδ∗^*_\deltaδ∗​. It uses N=⌈log⁡(2/δ)⌉N=\lceil\log(2/\delta)\rceilN=⌈log(2/δ)⌉.
  • Measurability. Lemma 3 assumes that A\mathcal AA's actions are measurable in ω\omegaω.

The development needs:

  • product and infinite-product measures of exponential laws (in Mathlib);
  • Markov's inequality and Azuma–Hoeffding for submartingales with bounded differences;
  • the memoryless property of the exponential law;
  • Chernoff bounds.

The online-learning layer (protocol, regret, switches, FPL, the restart framework) is reusable for other switching-cost results in the paper and elsewhere. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative routes to Theorem 1, such as the random-walk perturbation of §2.5.

Selected references

  • J. M. Altschuler and K. Talwar, Online learning over a finite action set with limited switching, COLT 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(1), 2021. arXiv:1803.01548v2
  • A. Kalai and S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for online decision problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71(3), 2005. doi:10.1016/j.jcss.2004.10.016
  • L. Devroye, G. Lugosi and G. Neu, Random-walk perturbations for online combinatorial optimization, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 61(7):4099–4106, 2015. doi:10.1109/TIT.2015.2428253
  • N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi, Prediction, Learning, and Games, Cambridge University Press, 2006. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511546921
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Machine LearningMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning Markov Models Via Low-Rank Optimization: KL Error Bound for the Rank-Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimator of a Low-Rank Markov ChainResearch Paper

Motivation

Many systems studied in operations research and reinforcement learning are modelled as finite Markov chains with a large number of states ppp: the stops of a taxi in a city, a random walk on a network, the conformations of a molecule. Estimating the p×pp\times pp×p transition matrix from one observed trajectory needs, in general, a trajectory long compared with the p2p^2p2 unknown entries. In many such systems the transition matrix has, at least approximately, a small rank r≪pr\ll pr≪p: the observed chain is driven by a low-dimensional latent process, as in state aggregation, where P(st+1∣st)=∑zP(zt=z∣st) P(st+1∣zt=z)\mathbb P(s_{t+1}\mid s_t)=\sum_z\mathbb P(z_t=z\mid s_t)\,\mathbb P(s_{t+1}\mid z_t=z)P(st+1​∣st​)=∑z​P(zt​=z∣st​)P(st+1​∣zt​=z) (Zhu, Li, Wang & Zhang, arXiv:1907.00113, §1.1). Zhu, Li, Wang and Zhang show that a low-rank transition matrix can be estimated from a trajectory whose length is proportional to ppp (up to logarithmic factors), and they give two maximum-likelihood estimators with explicit rates. This mission formalizes the rate of the second, rank-constrained, estimator in Kullback–Leibler divergence.

Setting

Let X0,X1,…,XnX_0,X_1,\dots,X_nX0​,X1​,…,Xn​ be a Markov chain on the states [p]={s1,…,sp}[p]=\{s_1,\dots,s_p\}[p]={s1​,…,sp​} with transition matrix PPP (Pij≥0P_{ij}\ge0Pij​≥0, ∑jPij=1\sum_jP_{ij}=1∑j​Pij​=1, Pij=P(X1=sj∣X0=si)P_{ij}=\mathbb P(X_1=s_j\mid X_0=s_i)Pij​=P(X1​=sj​∣X0​=si​)) and stationary distribution π\piπ (π⊤P=π⊤\pi^\top P=\pi^\topπ⊤P=π⊤). The chain is primitive (some power of PPP has all entries positive), and X0X_0X0​ is drawn from π\piπ. Write πmin⁡=min⁡jπj\pi_{\min}=\min_j\pi_jπmin​=minj​πj​ and πmax⁡=max⁡jπj\pi_{\max}=\max_j\pi_jπmax​=maxj​πj​.

The right spectral gap is 1−ρ+1-\rho_+1−ρ+​, where, with ⟨h1,h2⟩π=∑jh1jh2jπj\langle h_1,h_2\rangle_\pi=\sum_jh_{1j}h_{2j}\pi_j⟨h1​,h2​⟩π​=∑j​h1j​h2j​πj​ and the adjoint P∗=Diag(π)−1P⊤Diag(π)P^*=\mathrm{Diag}(\pi)^{-1}P^\top\mathrm{Diag}(\pi)P∗=Diag(π)−1P⊤Diag(π),

ρ+=sup⁡⟨h,1⟩π=0, ⟨h,h⟩π=112⟨(P+P∗)h,h⟩π.\rho_+=\sup_{\langle h,1\rangle_\pi=0,\ \langle h,h\rangle_\pi=1}\tfrac12\langle(P+P^*)h,h\rangle_\pi .ρ+​=⟨h,1⟩π​=0, ⟨h,h⟩π​=1sup​21​⟨(P+P∗)h,h⟩π​.

The KL divergence of a transition matrix QQQ from PPP is DKL(P,Q)=∑i,jπiPijlog⁡(Pij/Qij)1{Pij≠0}D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)=\sum_{i,j}\pi_iP_{ij}\log(P_{ij}/Q_{ij})1_{\{P_{ij}\ne0\}}DKL​(P,Q)=∑i,j​πi​Pij​log(Pij​/Qij​)1{Pij​=0}​. From the trajectory, nijn_{ij}nij​ counts the transitions si→sjs_i\to s_jsi​→sj​, and the averaged negative log-likelihood is ℓn(Q)=−1n∑i,jnijlog⁡Qij\ell_n(Q)=-\frac1n\sum_{i,j}n_{ij}\log Q_{ij}ℓn​(Q)=−n1​∑i,j​nij​logQij​. The empirical KL divergence is D~KL(P,Q)=ℓn(Q)−ℓn(P)\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)=\ell_n(Q)-\ell_n(P)DKL​(P,Q)=ℓn​(Q)−ℓn​(P).

Assumption 1 of the paper: rank⁡(P)=r\operatorname{rank}(P)=rrank(P)=r, and Pjk∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p]P_{jk}\in\{0\}\cup[\alpha/p,\beta/p]Pjk​∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p] for constants α,β>0\alpha,\beta>0α,β>0. The (α/p)(\alpha/p)(α/p)-minoration (Remark 2) removes the 000: α/p≤Pjk≤β/p\alpha/p\le P_{jk}\le\beta/pα/p≤Pjk​≤β/p for all j,kj,kj,k. The rank-constrained MLE (5) is any

P^r∈arg⁡min⁡{ℓn(Q): Q1p=1p, α/p≤Qij≤β/p, rank⁡(Q)≤r}.\widehat P^r\in\arg\min\big\{\ell_n(Q):\ Q1_p=1_p,\ \alpha/p\le Q_{ij}\le\beta/p,\ \operatorname{rank}(Q)\le r\big\}.Pr∈argmin{ℓn​(Q): Q1p​=1p​, α/p≤Qij​≤β/p, rank(Q)≤r}.

In Lean these objects are IsStochastic, IsStationary, IsPrimitive, piMin, piMax, trajProb, rhoPlus, klDiv, negLogLik, empKL, Assumption1, Minorated, RankFeasible and IsRankMLE in the namespace LowRankMarkov.RankMLE.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, KL display (p. 10)

There are universal constants C1,C2>0C_1,C_2>0C1​,C2​>0 such that, for p≥2p\ge2p≥2, under minoration with rank⁡P=r\operatorname{rank}P=rrankP=r and nπmax⁡(1−ρ+)>max⁡(20log⁡p,log⁡n)n\pi_{\max}(1-\rho_+)>\max(20\log p,\log n)nπmax​(1−ρ+​)>max(20logp,logn), every rank-constrained MLE satisfies, for all ξ>0\xi>0ξ>0,

P{DKL(P,P^r)≥max⁡(C1rπmax⁡β2plog⁡pπmin⁡α3n, ξπmin⁡rpπmax⁡log⁡p)}≤C2e−ξ.\mathbb P\Big\{D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\ge\max\Big(\frac{C_1r\pi_{\max}\beta^2p\log p}{\pi_{\min}\alpha^3n},\ \frac{\xi\pi_{\min}}{rp\pi_{\max}\log p}\Big)\Big\}\le C_2e^{-\xi}.P{DKL​(P,Pr)≥max(πmin​α3nC1​rπmax​β2plogp​, rpπmax​logpξπmin​​)}≤C2​e−ξ.

The constants are not fixed numerically, so a sharper analysis does not invalidate the goal.

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.1, both forms: DKL(u,v)≥pα2β2∥u−v∥22D_{\mathrm{KL}}(u,v)\ge\frac{p\alpha}{2\beta^2}\|u-v\|_2^2DKL​(u,v)≥2β2pα​∥u−v∥22​ for distributions with uj∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p]u_j\in\{0\}\cup[\alpha/p,\beta/p]uj​∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p], vj∈[α/p,β/p]v_j\in[\alpha/p,\beta/p]vj​∈[α/p,β/p], and its matrix form ∥P−Q∥F2≤2β2απmin⁡pDKL(P,Q)\|P-Q\|_F^2\le\frac{2\beta^2}{\alpha\pi_{\min}p}D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)∥P−Q∥F2​≤απmin​p2β2​DKL​(P,Q).
  2. The rank remark (p. 14): rank⁡(P^r−P)≤2r\operatorname{rank}(\widehat P^r-P)\le2rrank(Pr−P)≤2r and ∥P^r−P∥∗≤(2r)1/2∥P^r−P∥F\|\widehat P^r-P\|_*\le(2r)^{1/2}\|\widehat P^r-P\|_F∥Pr−P∥∗​≤(2r)1/2∥Pr−P∥F​.
  3. (EC.14): on the shell Q∈C(η)Q\in\mathcal C(\eta)Q∈C(η), l≥1l\ge1l≥1 and 2l−1η≤DKL(P,Q)≤2lη2^{l-1}\eta\le D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\le2^l\eta2l−1η≤DKL​(P,Q)≤2lη, ∥Q−P∥∗≤2β(2lηr/(pαπmin⁡))1/2\|Q-P\|_*\le2\beta(2^l\eta r/(p\alpha\pi_{\min}))^{1/2}∥Q−P∥∗​≤2β(2lηr/(pαπmin​))1/2.
  4. (EC.15), (EC.17): Bernstein-type tails p−(ξ−1)p^{-(\xi-1)}p−(ξ−1) for Wn(1)=max⁡j∑i≤nPXi−1,jW^{(1)}_n=\max_j\sum_{i\le n}P_{X_{i-1},j}Wn(1)​=maxj​∑i≤n​PXi−1​,j​ and Wn(2)=max⁡j∑i≤n1{Xi−1=sj}W^{(2)}_n=\max_j\sum_{i\le n}1_{\{X_{i-1}=s_j\}}Wn(2)​=maxj​∑i≤n​1{Xi−1​=sj​}​.
  5. Lemma 3: with probability at least 1−C2exp⁡(−ηπmax⁡rplog⁡p/πmin⁡)1-C_2\exp(-\eta\pi_{\max}rp\log p/\pi_{\min})1−C2​exp(−ηπmax​rplogp/πmin​), ∣D~KL(P,Q)−DKL(P,Q)∣≤12DKL(P,Q)+C1πmax⁡β2rplog⁡p/(πmin⁡α3n)|\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)-D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)|\le\frac12D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)+C_1\pi_{\max}\beta^2rp\log p/(\pi_{\min}\alpha^3n)∣DKL​(P,Q)−DKL​(P,Q)∣≤21​DKL​(P,Q)+C1​πmax​β2rplogp/(πmin​α3n) for every Q∈CQ\in\mathcal CQ∈C with DKL(P,Q)≥ηD_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\ge\etaDKL​(P,Q)≥η.
  6. (EC.3): D~KL(P,P^r)≤0\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\le0DKL​(P,Pr)≤0. Together with DKL(P,P^r)=L(P^r)−L(P)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)=\mathcal L(\widehat P^r)-\mathcal L(P)DKL​(P,Pr)=L(Pr)−L(P) it gives (EC.4), DKL(P,P^r)≤DKL(P,P^r)−D~KL(P,P^r)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\le D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)-\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)DKL​(P,Pr)≤DKL​(P,Pr)−DKL​(P,Pr).

Significance

The bound says that, with high probability, the KL error of P^r\widehat P^rPr is of order rplog⁡p/nrp\log p/nrplogp/n up to the factors πmax⁡/πmin⁡\pi_{\max}/\pi_{\min}πmax​/πmin​ and β2/α3\beta^2/\alpha^3β2/α3, plus a term independent of nnn controlled by ξ\xiξ. A trajectory of length of order rplog⁡prp\log prplogp, rather than p2p^2p2, therefore suffices: the low rank is what makes the estimation problem sample-efficient. Lemma EC.1 converts the KL bound into a Frobenius-norm bound, and Lemma 3 is a uniform law for the empirical KL process of a dependent sequence over the paper’s cone class.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission asks for a formal proof of the KL display. Two points need care beyond transcription: the printed hypotheses do not suffice (see Formalization scope), and the paper's proof of Lemma 3 symmetrizes the dependent summands as if they were independent (EC.8), so a formal proof must supply a valid argument for that step.

Difficulty

Comparing ℓn(P^r)\ell_n(\widehat P^r)ℓn​(Pr) with ℓn(P)\ell_n(P)ℓn​(P) is immediate; the difficulty is to control D~KL−DKL\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}-D_{\mathrm{KL}}DKL​−DKL​ uniformly over a non-convex set of matrices, from one dependent trajectory. A union bound over a net of the feasible set loses polynomial factors in ppp, and i.i.d. empirical-process tools do not apply directly to a Markov chain. The printed Lemma 3 covers the cone class C\mathcal CC, while the appendix proof restricts its shells to rank-rrr matrices. This leaves a gap for matrices in C\mathcal CC of higher rank and for the claimed application to P^r\widehat P^rPr when r>16r>16r>16. The paper combines a tail inequality for suprema of empirical processes of Markov chains (Adamczak 2008), a contraction step, the matrix Freedman inequality (Tropp 2011) for a matrix martingale, and a Bernstein inequality for Markov chains with a spectral gap (Jiang, Fan & Sun 2018) for the quadratic variations Wn(1),Wn(2)W^{(1)}_n,W^{(2)}_nWn(1)​,Wn(2)​. None of these is in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

States are Fin p, matrices Matrix (Fin p) (Fin p) ℝ, logarithms natural. A trajectory x=(X0,…,Xn)x=(X_0,\dots,X_n)x=(X0​,…,Xn​) makes nnn transitions, and its probability is π(x0)∏k<nPxkxk+1\pi(x_0)\prod_{k<n}P_{x_kx_{k+1}}π(x0​)∏k<n​Pxk​xk+1​​; probabilities of events are finite sums, so no measure theory is needed. ρ+\rho_+ρ+​ is a real sSup; "ρ+<1\rho_+<1ρ+​<1" is not built into its definition. The nuclear and Frobenius norms come from the published definition CaiCandesShen.Convergence.Basic.

Hypotheses fixed relative to the page:

  • Minoration instead of Assumption 1(ii), in the goal and (EC.3). The printed Theorem 2 allows Pjk=0P_{jk}=0Pjk​=0, and it is false then. For even ppp, let rows 1,…,p/21,\dots,p/21,…,p/2 of PPP equal 2/p2/p2/p on columns p/2+1,…,pp/2+1,\dots,pp/2+1,…,p and 000 elsewhere, and rows p/2+1,…,pp/2+1,\dots,pp/2+1,…,p equal 1/p1/p1/p. Then rank⁡P=2\operatorname{rank}P=2rankP=2, α=1\alpha=1α=1, β=2\beta=2β=2, ρ+=0\rho_+=0ρ+​=0, π\piπ puts mass 1/31/31/3 on the first half and πmax⁡/πmin⁡=2\pi_{\max}/\pi_{\min}=2πmax​/πmin​=2. Every feasible QQQ has Qij≥1/pQ_{ij}\ge1/pQij​≥1/p, so on each of the first p/2p/2p/2 rows QQQ puts mass at most 1/21/21/2 on the support of PPP, and DKL(P,Q)≥13log⁡2D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\ge\frac13\log2DKL​(P,Q)≥31​log2. With ξ=0.9 plog⁡p\xi=0.9\,p\log pξ=0.9plogp the threshold is below 13log⁡2\frac13\log231​log2 for all large nnn, so the probability is 111, while C2e−ξ<1C_2e^{-\xi}<1C2​e−ξ<1 for large ppp. The broken step is (EC.3), which needs PPP feasible for (5); minoration with rank⁡P=r\operatorname{rank}P=rrankP=r makes it feasible. Lemma EC.1, (EC.14), (EC.15), (EC.17) and Lemma 3 keep the printed Assumption 1.
  • X0∼πX_0\sim\piX0​∼π, stated in Theorem 1 and used by the proof of Theorem 2 through Lemma 3.
  • Ergodic is read as primitive; πi>0\pi_i>0πi​>0 is stated (it is implied); p≥2p\ge2p≥2 keeps log⁡p>0\log p>0logp>0 in denominators.
  • Lemma 3's set is the printed C(η)\mathcal C(\eta)C(η), whose cone is ∥Q−P∥∗≤4×21/2∥Q−P∥F\|Q-P\|_*\le4\times2^{1/2}\|Q-P\|_F∥Q−P∥∗​≤4×21/2∥Q−P∥F​ and which has no rank constraint. The appendix proof uses rank-restricted shells; for r>16r>16r>16 the rank remark alone does not place P^r\widehat P^rPr in C\mathcal CC. This is a proof gap, while the formal statement retains the page's quantification.
  • Lemma EC.1's matrix form and (EC.14) include the printed cone condition. (EC.14) is stated pointwise for members of Cl\mathcal C_lCl​.

The statements rule out trivializing readings: C1,C2C_1,C_2C1​,C2​ are quantified before all data; the goal holds for every selection of minimizers, not for one fixed estimator; p≥2p\ge2p≥2 and π>0\pi>0π>0 exclude the junk values x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 and log⁡1=0\log1=0log1=0 that would collapse the thresholds; a sorry-free check shows the goal's hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (p=2p=2p=2, uniform PPP, n=28n=28n=28).

Not posed: Theorem 1 (nuclear-norm MLE), the Frobenius display of Theorem 2 (Lemma EC.1 turns the KL threshold into twice the printed Frobenius threshold, so the paper's one-line derivation gives C2e−ξ/2C_2e^{-\xi/2}C2​e−ξ/2), Theorem 3 (lower bound), and the DC-programming results of §4. Useful reusable contributions: a Bernstein inequality for finite Markov chains with a spectral gap, the matrix Freedman inequality, and the reverse-Pinsker bound of Lemma EC.1.

Selected references

  • Z. Zhu, X. Li, M. Wang, A. R. Zhang, Learning Markov models via low-rank optimization, Operations Research, 2022; preprint arXiv:1907.00113v2, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.00113
  • B. Jiang, J. Fan, Q. Sun, Bernstein's inequality for general Markov chains, arXiv:1805.10721, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10721
  • J. A. Tropp, Freedman's inequality for matrix martingales, Electronic Communications in Probability 16:262–270, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.3039
  • R. Adamczak, A tail inequality for suprema of unbounded empirical processes with applications to Markov chains, Electronic Journal of Probability 13(34):1000–1034, 2008. https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.3110
  • J. A. Fill, Eigenvalue bounds on convergence to stationarity for nonreversible Markov chains, with an application to the exclusion process, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(1):62–87, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005981
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Skill Acquisition and Data Sales: Under Uncertain Skill Acquisition and Accurate Data, Higher Skill-Acquisition Costs Raise Data Clarity, Data Price and Price InformativenessResearch Paper

Motivation

Asset managers increasingly buy alternative data: satellite images, credit-card panels, web traffic. Raw data of this kind is worthless until someone has the skills to process it, and those skills are costly and uncertain to acquire. A fund can hire data scientists and still find that its models extract little. Huang, Xiong and Yang (Management Science, 2022) build an equilibrium model of a data seller who sells to investors who must first acquire such skills. They ask how the cost of acquiring skills feeds through the data market into the financial market: into how much the price reveals, the cost of capital and return volatility.

The model joins two lines of work. One is the classical noisy rational-expectations market of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980), in which prices partly reveal private information. The other is the literature on selling information started by Admati and Pfleiderer (1986, 1990), in which a monopolist seller degrades the information it sells to limit what the price leaks. The new feature is the "gold rush" of skill acquisition: an investor who pays the cost learns only afterwards whether her skill is high or low.

Setting

A risky asset pays θ~∼N(0,τθ−1)\tilde\theta\sim N(0,\tau_\theta^{-1})θ~∼N(0,τθ−1​) and there is noise demand u~∼N(0,τu−1)\tilde u\sim N(0,\tau_u^{-1})u~∼N(0,τu−1​). A data seller observes θ~+η~\tilde\theta+\tilde\etaθ~+η~​ with η~∼N(0,τη−1)\tilde\eta\sim N(0,\tau_\eta^{-1})η~​∼N(0,τη−1​); the precision τη\tau_\etaτη​ is the data accuracy. The seller chooses a clarity x∈(0,∞]x\in(0,\infty]x∈(0,∞] and passes the data with personalized noise, so that a buyer of skill zzz receives a signal of precision xzxzxz about θ~+η~\tilde\theta+\tilde\etaθ~+η~​. The value x=∞x=\inftyx=∞ means the data are sold "as is".

A continuum of CARA investors with risk aversion γ\gammaγ is indexed by i∈[0,1]i\in[0,1]i∈[0,1]. Investor iii can acquire data-processing skills at cost C(c,i)C(c,i)C(c,i), where c>0c>0c>0 is a cost parameter. The cost is continuous and strictly increasing in iii, with C(c,0)=0C(c,0)=0C(c,0)=0 and C(c,i)→∞C(c,i)\to\inftyC(c,i)→∞ as i→1i\to1i→1, and it is strictly increasing in ccc. A skilled investor turns out high-skilled (ZHZ_HZH​) or low-skilled (ZLZ_LZL​) with probability 12\tfrac1221​ each, with 0<ZL<ZH0<Z_L<Z_H0<ZL​<ZH​. A mass λ\lambdaλ of investors becomes skilled.

In the asset market, the price reveals θ~+η~\tilde\theta+\tilde\etaθ~+η~​ with precision α2τu\alpha^2\tau_uα2τu​, and α\alphaα is pinned down by the market-clearing equation (14). Skilled investors buy the data at a Nash-bargained price q=βGq=\beta Gq=βG, where G(x,α)G(x,\alpha)G(x,α) is the certainty-equivalent trading gain (15) and β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) is the seller's bargaining power. Investors acquire skills until the marginal investor is indifferent, (1−β)G(x,α)=C(c,λ)(1-\beta)G(x,\alpha)=C(c,\lambda)(1−β)G(x,α)=C(c,λ) (19). The seller chooses xxx to maximize the profit λq\lambda qλq. An equilibrium is a clarity x∗x^*x∗ with its (λ∗,α∗)(\lambda^*,\alpha^*)(λ∗,α∗) such that no other feasible clarity gives more profit.

The market outcomes are:

  • the data price q∗q^*q∗;
  • price informativeness 1/Var⁡(θ~∣p~)1/\operatorname{Var}(\tilde\theta\mid\tilde p)1/Var(θ~∣p~​);
  • the cost of capital E(θ~−p~)E(\tilde\theta-\tilde p)E(θ~−p~​);
  • return volatility σ(θ~−p~)\sigma(\tilde\theta-\tilde p)σ(θ~−p~​);
  • skilled investors' performance, the average certainty-equivalent advantage (21) of a skilled over an unskilled investor.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

Fix 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​. There is a threshold TTT such that, for every data accuracy τη≥T\tau_\eta\ge Tτη​≥T and every pair of equilibria at c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​, both clarities are finite and

λ2∗<λ1∗,x1∗<x2∗,q1∗<q2∗,1Var⁡1(θ~∣p~)<1Var⁡2(θ~∣p~),\lambda^*_2<\lambda^*_1,\quad x^*_1<x^*_2,\quad q^*_1<q^*_2,\quad \frac{1}{\operatorname{Var}_1(\tilde\theta\mid\tilde p)}<\frac{1}{\operatorname{Var}_2(\tilde\theta\mid\tilde p)},λ2∗​<λ1∗​,x1∗​<x2∗​,q1∗​<q2∗​,Var1​(θ~∣p~​)1​<Var2​(θ~∣p~​)1​, E2(θ~−p~)<E1(θ~−p~),σ2(θ~−p~)<σ1(θ~−p~),Performance1<Performance2.E_2(\tilde\theta-\tilde p)<E_1(\tilde\theta-\tilde p),\quad \sigma_2(\tilde\theta-\tilde p)<\sigma_1(\tilde\theta-\tilde p),\quad \mathrm{Performance}_1<\mathrm{Performance}_2 .E2​(θ~−p~​)<E1​(θ~−p~​),σ2​(θ~−p~​)<σ1​(θ~−p~​),Performance1​<Performance2​.

The paper writes these as signs of derivatives in ccc. The goal states them as comparisons between two cost levels, which is what the prose of the proposition asserts.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1: for given (λ,x)(\lambda,x)(λ,x), equation (14) has a unique positive root α\alphaα.
  2. Proof of Proposition 2: for each finite clarity xxx, a unique (λ,α)(\lambda,\alpha)(λ,α) solves (14) and (19).
  3. Proposition 2 (1): an equilibrium exists.
  4. (C5): on feasible tuples the profit equals βλC(c,λ)/(1−β)\beta\lambda C(c,\lambda)/(1-\beta)βλC(c,λ)/(1−β).
  5. Proposition 3: in equilibrium, x∗<∞x^*<\inftyx∗<∞ if λ∗τη>α∗γ\lambda^*\tau_\eta>\alpha^*\gammaλ∗τη​>α∗γ and x∗=∞x^*=\inftyx∗=∞ otherwise.
  6. The clarity limit: as τη→∞\tau_\eta\to\inftyτη​→∞, every solution xxx of (14) tends to 2αγ/(λ(ZH+ZL))2\alpha\gamma/(\lambda(Z_H+Z_L))2αγ/(λ(ZH​+ZL​)).
  7. The α limit: the equilibrium α∗\alpha^*α∗ tends to τθ/τu\sqrt{\tau_\theta/\tau_u}τθ​/τu​​.
  8. (C18): the equilibrium λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ tends to a root of (C18).

Significance

The result. Proposition 5 is the paper's headline. When skills are uncertain, a rise in skill-acquisition costs makes prices more informative and lowers the cost of capital and return volatility. When skills are certain, these outcomes stay unchanged (Proposition 4). The mechanism is that the seller cannot tailor one clarity to buyers of unknown skill. To keep buyers interested as costs rise, she provides clearer data, and more information leaks into the price. The result separates the data market from a pure cost shock to information production. It gives empirical predictions for markets where skill acquisition is costlier, such as private or international equities.

Formalizing it. The proposition is proved in the paper by expansion in w=1/τηw=1/\tau_\etaw=1/τη​ around w=0w=0w=0. A machine-checked version must make "sufficiently high τη\tau_\etaτη​" precise, with a threshold that holds uniformly over all equilibria. It must also control the exact finite-τη\tau_\etaτη​ equilibrium rather than its limit. The mission also contributes the first noisy rational-expectations model with a strategic data seller on the platform: posterior variances, the equilibrium equation (14), the certainty-equivalent gain, and the seller's choice between finite clarity and selling "as is". No part of the paper has been formalized before.

Difficulty

Several comparisons follow at leading order in 1/τη1/\tau_\eta1/τη​. As τη→∞\tau_\eta\to\inftyτη​→∞ the equilibrium mass converges to the root of (C18), which is decreasing in ccc, and the clarity, the data price and performance are, to first order, functions of that mass. The price-informativeness, cost-of-capital and volatility comparisons do not follow at leading order. At τη=∞\tau_\eta=\inftyτη​=∞ the ratio α∗\alpha^*α∗ tends to τθ/τu\sqrt{\tau_\theta/\tau_u}τθ​/τu​​ whatever the cost, so these three outcomes are flat in ccc to leading order. Their signs come from the O(1/τη)O(1/\tau_\eta)O(1/τη​) correction to α∗\alpha^*α∗, and the correction must be controlled jointly with the seller's optimal clarity. A newcomer's first idea is to set τη=∞\tau_\eta=\inftyτη​=∞ in the equilibrium conditions and differentiate. That loses exactly the term that carries the result. A further difficulty is that the seller's optimum is defined by comparison with every feasible clarity, including selling "as is", not by a first-order condition.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The parameters satisfy τθ,τu,γ>0\tau_\theta,\tau_u,\gamma>0τθ​,τu​,γ>0, 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, 0<ZL<ZH0<Z_L<Z_H0<ZL​<ZH​ and τη>0\tau_\eta>0τη​>0. Two of these go beyond the paper's §2 domains, and both are needed:

  • β>0\beta>0β>0: with β=0\beta=0β=0 the profit is identically zero and every clarity is optimal;
  • ZL>0Z_L>0ZL​>0: this is the paper's own condition on p. 23.

The cost family is any admissible C(c,i)C(c,i)C(c,i): continuous and strictly increasing in iii on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), C(c,0)=0C(c,0)=0C(c,0)=0, C(c,i)→∞C(c,i)\to\inftyC(c,i)→∞ as i→1−i\to1^-i→1−, and strictly increasing in ccc on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). "Increasing" in the paper is read as strictly increasing. Clarity is either a finite x>0x>0x>0 or "as is". At "as is", (14) becomes γα=λτη\gamma\alpha=\lambda\tau_\etaγα=λτη​ and both conditional variances given a signal equal 1/(τθ+τη)1/(\tau_\theta+\tau_\eta)1/(τθ​+τη​). These are the x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞ limits of the finite-clarity formulas. The value x=0x=0x=0 is excluded from the choice set because it gives no positive root of (14).

The posterior variances (8), (10), (12), the gain (15), the price coefficients (C1)–(C4), the cost of capital (C12), volatility (C13) and performance (21) are taken as closed-form definitions. Their CARA-normal derivation (Bayes' rule, market clearing, certainty equivalents) is not formalized. Equilibria are defined relationally: a feasible tuple whose profit is at least that of every feasible tuple, with no choice functions.

The goal concludes, rather than assumes, that the equilibrium clarities are finite. It quantifies over every equilibrium at each cost level. It does not define the equilibrium through the τη=∞\tau_\eta=\inftyτη​=∞ economy or through the paper's expansions, which would replace the theorem by its heuristic.

A complete development needs real analysis only: the intermediate value theorem, monotonicity, compactness on (0,∞](0,\infty](0,∞], and asymptotics in 1/τη1/\tau_\eta1/τη​. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on an independent proof of Proposition 4's Δ=0\Delta=0Δ=0 counterpart, and on a formal derivation of the closed forms from Gaussian conditioning and CARA utility, which would be reusable for other rational-expectations models.

Selected references

  • S. Huang, Y. Xiong, L. Yang, Skill Acquisition and Data Sales, Management Science 68(8), 2022; working paper version of July 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4117
  • S. J. Grossman, J. E. Stiglitz, On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets, American Economic Review 70(3), 1980. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805228
  • A. R. Admati, P. Pfleiderer, A Monopolistic Market for Information, Journal of Economic Theory 39(2), 1986. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(86)90049-3
  • A. R. Admati, P. Pfleiderer, Direct and Indirect Sale of Information, Econometrica 58(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938330
  • N. Gârleanu, L. H. Pedersen, Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management, Journal of Finance 73(4), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12696
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Managing Self-Replicating Innovative Goods: Characterization of the Optimal Production and Sales Policies under Strong ReplicabilityResearch Paper

Why self-replicating goods

Some goods can only be made by copies of themselves. RepRap and Prusa 3D printers print the parts of new printers, seed stock is grown from seed, and livestock herds breed. For such a good the inventory is also the production capacity: a unit sold today is a unit that will not replicate tomorrow. A firm launching such a good has to decide, at every instant, how much of its stock to use for replication and how much demand to serve. Demand for an innovative good is not exogenous either. It diffuses through the market by word-of-mouth, so sales held back today also slow future demand.

B. Hu and Z. Sun (Management Science) model this as a deterministic optimal control problem. Their demand side is the Bass diffusion model (Bass, 1969) in the supply-constrained form of Ho, Savin and Terwiesch (2002) and Kumar and Swaminathan (2003), where cumulative sales rather than cumulative demand drive imitation. Hu and Sun add diminishing word-of-mouth. Their main structural result, Theorem 1, says that under a condition they call Strong Replicability the optimal policy switches only once and can be found by a one-dimensional search.

The model

Time runs over [0,T][0,T][0,T], where TTT is the life cycle. The firm controls a production rate p(t)p(t)p(t) and a sales rate s(t)s(t)s(t). The state consists of the cumulative demand D(t)D(t)D(t), the adjusted cumulative sales S(t)S(t)S(t) and the inventory I(t)I(t)I(t). The demand rate is

d(t)=[α+βS(t)m][m−D(t)],d(t)=\Big[\alpha+\frac{\beta S(t)}{m}\Big]\big[m-D(t)\big],d(t)=[α+mβS(t)​][m−D(t)],

where mmm is the market size, α\alphaα the coefficient of innovation and β\betaβ the coefficient of imitation. Problem (1) of the paper is

max⁡p,s∫0T[πs(t)−cp(t)−hI(t)]e−ρt dt\max_{p,s}\int_0^T\big[\pi s(t)-cp(t)-hI(t)\big]e^{-\rho t}\,dtp,smax​∫0T​[πs(t)−cp(t)−hI(t)]e−ρtdt

subject to

D′=d,S′=s−wS,I′=p−s,0≤p≤rI,0≤s≤d,I(T)≥0,D'=d,\quad S'=s-wS,\quad I'=p-s,\qquad 0\le p\le rI,\quad 0\le s\le d,\quad I(T)\ge0,D′=d,S′=s−wS,I′=p−s,0≤p≤rI,0≤s≤d,I(T)≥0, D(0)=S(0)=0,I(0)=IL>0.D(0)=S(0)=0,\qquad I(0)=I_L>0.D(0)=S(0)=0,I(0)=IL​>0.

Here π\piπ is the price, ccc the unit replication cost, hhh the holding cost rate, rrr the replication rate, ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0 the discount rate and w≥0w\ge0w≥0 the rate at which word-of-mouth decays. Unmet demand is lost. The paper assumes π>c\pi>cπ>c and r>ρr>\rhor>ρ. Production is on when p=rIp=rIp=rI and off when p=0p=0p=0. Sales are on when s=ds=ds=d and off when s=0s=0s=0.

Strong Replicability is condition (2),

(r−ρ)π>cr+h.(r-\rho)\pi>cr+h.(r−ρ)π>cr+h.

It says that letting a unit replicate for a short time and selling the offspring later is worth more than selling the unit now.

Two levels of the launch inventory organise the answer. I‾\underline II​ is the level at which keeping production and sales always on depletes the inventory exactly at TTT. I‾\overline II is the level at which keeping production off and sales on depletes it exactly at TTT.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Assume Strong Replicability. Then:

  • (a) if IL<I‾I_L<\underline IIL​<I​, the policy that keeps production always on and switches sales on once, at the time that depletes the inventory exactly at TTT, is optimal;
  • (b) if I‾<IL<I‾\underline I<I_L<\overline II​<IL​<I, the policy that keeps sales always on and switches production on once, at the time that depletes the inventory exactly at TTT, is optimal;
  • (c) if IL>I‾I_L>\overline IIL​>I, the policy that keeps sales always on and production off is optimal, and it leaves inventory at TTT.

In each case, optimal means that the profit is at least

∫0T[πs~−cp~−hI~]e−ρt dt\int_0^T\big[\pi\tilde s-c\tilde p-h\tilde I\big]e^{-\rho t}\,dt∫0T​[πs~−cp~​−hI~]e−ρtdt

for every admissible trajectory (D~,S~,I~,p~,s~)(\tilde D,\tilde S,\tilde I,\tilde p,\tilde s)(D~,S~,I~,p~​,s~), not only for policies of the stated shape. The switching times are not given in closed form, and the theorem asserts only that they exist.

Milestones

  1. The thresholds are ordered, I‾<I‾\underline I<\overline II​<I (preamble of Theorem 1).
  2. Proposition 1. Once production is switched on, an optimal policy keeps it on until TTT or inventory depletion.
  3. Proposition 2, first half. Under Strong Replicability, every optimal trajectory has I(t)>0I(t)>0I(t)>0 for all t<Tt<Tt<T, whatever TTT is.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns an infinite-dimensional control problem into a choice of one switching time. Its managerial content is that a firm with a replicating good should, when stock is scarce, run replication at full capacity and hold back sales, losing some early customers, as long as the stock built up will eventually be sold. Proposition 2 says that under Strong Replicability the firm never sells out before the end of the life cycle. The paper's numerical study (§4) and its extensions (§5: backlogged demand, liquidity, stochastic diffusion) are built on this characterization.

The result has a published informal proof (pp. 36–37 of the manuscript), which applies necessary conditions from Pontryagin's maximum principle and then a perturbation and exchange argument. None of it is machine-checked. A complete formal proof would establish global optimality, against all integrable controls, for a nonlinear controlled ODE with mixed state–control constraints. That is a sufficiency statement, which the necessary conditions alone do not give.

Difficulty

The maximum principle gives necessary conditions only, and Problem (1) is not concave: the dynamics of DDD are bilinear in SSS and DDD, and the constraint p≤rIp\le rIp≤rI couples control and state. So the obvious route, solving the Pontryagin system and reading off the optimum, does not prove optimality. The paper's own argument is an exchange argument. It postpones sales or shifts production forward and claims each change improves profit, and it applies the change recursively ("by making the same argument recursively"). Making it rigorous requires comparison results for the Bass system under perturbed sales, which are delicate. Postponing sales lowers the adjusted sales SSS, and with it all future demand. The existence of the switching times also needs a continuity argument on the depletion time as a function of the switch.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace SelfReplic.Strong and uses real numbers throughout.

  • Parameters form a structure Params with fields m, price, c, h, r, alpha, beta, rho, w, T, IL. The predicate Params.Standing collects the page's assumptions IL>0I_L>0IL​>0, π>c\pi>cπ>c, r>ρ≥0r>\rho\ge0r>ρ≥0, w≥0w\ge0w≥0. It adds the sign conditions m>0m>0m>0, T>0T>0T>0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, c≥0c\ge0c≥0, h≥0h\ge0h≥0, which the paper uses but never states. Params.StrongRepl is condition (2).
  • Admissible trajectories (IsAdmissible) have integrable controls p,sp,sp,s and continuous states D,S,ID,S,ID,S,I on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The three ODEs hold in integral form at every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T], the constraints 0≤p≤rI0\le p\le rI0≤p≤rI, 0≤s≤d0\le s\le d0≤s≤d hold at every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T], and I(T)≥0I(T)\ge0I(T)≥0. The integral form is used because bang-bang controls are discontinuous. Continuity and integrability prevent any integral from silently taking Lean's default value 000. Nonnegativity of III follows from 0≤p≤rI0\le p\le rI0≤p≤rI, as on p. 8.
  • Optimality (IsOptimal) compares the discounted profit with every admissible trajectory of the same parameters.
  • Policy shapes are pointwise statements on [0,T][0,T][0,T], and a switch instant counts as "on". The thresholds I‾,I‾\underline I,\overline II​,I enter as real numbers with their defining property (IsLowLevel, IsHighLevel), evaluated at the same parameters with ILI_LIL​ replaced.
  • Proposition 1 is read up to null sets ("production has run before t0t_0t0​", conclusion almost everywhere). It carries the added hypothesis ρc+h>0\rho c+h>0ρc+h>0, which the paper's proof uses. Without it (ρ=h=0\rho=h=0ρ=h=0), pausing production is costless and the statement fails.

A formalization that states Theorem 1 inside its own policy class (the best policy of shape (a) is the best of shape (a)) would be empty. Here the competitor in every case ranges over all admissible trajectories.

Not formalized: Theorem 2 (Weak Replicability), whose closed form (3) for the production interval is inexact when ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0; Corollaries 1–2; the second half of Proposition 2, which fails when IL≥mI_L\ge mIL​≥m; the unnumbered bang-bang claim of p. 9; Propositions 3–4 (§5).

Contributions that would be reusable beyond this mission include existence and uniqueness for the controlled Bass system in integral form, a comparison lemma for DDD and SSS under pointwise-ordered sales, and a sufficiency (verification) theorem for bang-bang controls of problems that are linear in the control.

Selected references

  • B. Hu, Z. Sun, Managing self-replicating innovative goods, Management Science (doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3936); authors' manuscript of 2020-10-18. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3936
  • F. M. Bass, A new product growth for model consumer durables, Management Science 15(5), 215–227, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215
  • T.-H. Ho, S. Savin, C. Terwiesch, Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint, Management Science 48(2), 187–206, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.2.187.255
  • S. Kumar, J. M. Swaminathan, Diffusion of innovations under supply constraints, Operations Research 51(6), 866–879, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.6.866.24918
  • S. P. Sethi, Optimal Control Theory: Applications to Management Science and Economics, 3rd ed., Springer, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98237-3
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Encroachment in a Non-Exclusive Reselling Channel: The Encroaching Supplier May Sell Only Directly at a Positive Direct Cost, or Through Both Channels at a Negative OneResearch Paper

Why encroachment through a shared reseller matters

Manufacturers that sell through retailers increasingly also sell directly to consumers, through their own web stores or outlets. The operations literature calls this supplier encroachment. The classical analysis (Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington, 2007) assumes an exclusive reseller: the reseller carries only the encroaching supplier's product. In that setting a supplier whose direct channel costs more per unit than the reseller's still sells through the reseller, and a supplier whose direct channel is cheaper never does.

Real resellers are rarely exclusive. A retailer that carries one brand usually carries competing brands too, and its order from one supplier depends on its order from the others. Hotkar and Gilbert (Management Science, 2021) study what changes when the reseller is non-exclusive. Their headline finding, Proposition 5, is that both conclusions of the exclusive model can reverse.

Setting

Two suppliers, i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2}, sell partially substitutable products through one reseller. Supplier 1 can also sell directly. The reseller orders q1q_1q1​ and q2q_2q2​; supplier 1 sells yyy units directly. The substitutability between the two suppliers' products is θ12∈(0,1)\theta_{12}\in(0,1)θ12​∈(0,1), written θ\thetaθ below. Supplier 1's direct product is a perfect substitute for her product at the reseller. Prices clear the market linearly:

p1=1−q1−θq2−y,p2=1−q2−θq1−θy,pd=1−y−q1−θq2.p_1=1-q_1-\theta q_2-y,\qquad p_2=1-q_2-\theta q_1-\theta y,\qquad p_d=1-y-q_1-\theta q_2 .p1​=1−q1​−θq2​−y,p2​=1−q2​−θq1​−θy,pd​=1−y−q1​−θq2​.

Production and reselling cost nothing. A direct sale costs supplier 1 an extra ccc per unit, and ccc may be negative: the direct channel can be more efficient than the reseller. With wholesale prices w1,w2≥0w_1,w_2\ge0w1​,w2​≥0, the reseller earns q1(p1−w1)+q2(p2−w2)q_1(p_1-w_1)+q_2(p_2-w_2)q1​(p1​−w1​)+q2​(p2​−w2​), supplier 1 earns y(pd−c)+q1w1y(p_d-c)+q_1w_1y(pd​−c)+q1​w1​, and supplier 2 earns q2w2q_2w_2q2​w2​.

The game has three stages:

  1. the suppliers set w1w_1w1​ and w2w_2w2​ simultaneously, and neither observes the other's price;
  2. the reseller, who sees both prices, orders q1q_1q1​ and q2q_2q2​;
  3. supplier 1 observes q1q_1q1​, but not q2q_2q2​ or w2w_2w2​, and chooses yyy.

Supplier 1 holds a belief w2′w_2'w2′​ about supplier 2's price. In stage III her quantity yyy and her conjecture q2′q_2'q2′​ of the reseller's order from supplier 2 are mutual best responses computed with w2′w_2'w2′​ (Lemma 1). In an equilibrium (the paper's (4.7)–(4.16)), beliefs equal the actual prices. The reseller best-responds at every price pair, anticipating supplier 1's reaction. Neither supplier gains from a unilateral price change. After a deviation by supplier 2, supplier 1's belief stays where it was. This is not a subgame-perfect equilibrium, because supplier 1 cannot observe w2w_2w2​.

The paper restricts the direct cost to c0(θ)<c<c3(θ)c_0(\theta)<c<c_3(\theta)c0​(θ)<c<c3​(θ) (p. 9). It identifies thresholds c0≤c1≤c2≤c3c_0\le c_1\le c_2\le c_3c0​≤c1​≤c2​≤c3​ (Table 2) that separate three regimes:

  • Direct Only (c≤c1c\le c_1c≤c1​) and Direct Only Boundary (c1≤c≤c2c_1\le c\le c_2c1​≤c≤c2​), in which the reseller orders nothing from supplier 1;
  • Reseller & Direct (c>c2c>c_2c>c2​), in which supplier 1 uses both channels.

The sign of c2c_2c2​ is that of

Num1(θ)=32−θ(80+θ(32+θ(14+θ(8−(4−θ)θ)))),\mathrm{Num1}(\theta)=32-\theta\Big(80+\theta\big(32+\theta(14+\theta(8-(4-\theta)\theta))\big)\Big),Num1(θ)=32−θ(80+θ(32+θ(14+θ(8−(4−θ)θ)))),

which has a unique root θ^≈0.3443\hat\theta\approx0.3443θ^≈0.3443 in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 22)

∃ θ^∈(0,1), Num1(θ^)=0, such that\exists\,\hat\theta\in(0,1),\ \mathrm{Num1}(\hat\theta)=0,\ \text{such that}∃θ^∈(0,1), Num1(θ^)=0, such that
  • for 0<θ<θ^0<\theta<\hat\theta0<θ<θ^: c2(θ)>0c_2(\theta)>0c2​(θ)>0, and for every c∈(0,c2(θ)]c\in(0,c_2(\theta)]c∈(0,c2​(θ)] an equilibrium exists and every equilibrium has q1∗=0<y∗q_1^*=0<y^*q1∗​=0<y∗. Supplier 1 sells only directly, although her direct channel is less efficient;
  • for θ^<θ<1\hat\theta<\theta<1θ^<θ<1: c2(θ)<0c_2(\theta)<0c2​(θ)<0. For θ^<θ≤9/10\hat\theta<\theta\le 9/10θ^<θ≤9/10 and every c∈(c2(θ),0)c\in(c_2(\theta),0)c∈(c2​(θ),0) there is an equilibrium with q1∗>0q_1^*>0q1∗​>0 and y∗>0y^*>0y∗>0. Supplier 1 sells through both channels, although her direct channel is more efficient.

Milestones

  • Lemma 1: the stage-III pair (yIII,q2′)(y^{III},q_2')(yIII,q2′​), which is unique.
  • Lemma 2: the reseller's conditionally optimal q2IIIq_2^{III}q2III​.
  • Corollary 1: q2III=q2′q_2^{III}=q_2'q2III​=q2′​ when w2=w2′w_2=w_2'w2​=w2′​.
  • Lemma 4: the threshold order c0≤c1≤c2≤c3c_0\le c_1\le c_2\le c_3c0​≤c1​≤c2​≤c3​.
  • Lemma 4: for c≤c2c\le c_2c≤c2​, the Direct Only and Direct Only Boundary prices are equilibria, and every equilibrium has q1∗=0<y∗q_1^*=0<y^*q1∗​=0<y∗.
  • Lemma 4: the Reseller & Direct equilibrium for c2<c<0c_2<c<0c2​<c<0 (stated for θ≤9/10\theta\le 9/10θ≤9/10).
  • The sign facts about Num1\mathrm{Num1}Num1 used in the proof of Proposition 5.

Significance

With an exclusive reseller, efficiency alone decides channel use: a costlier direct channel is used alongside the reseller, and a cheaper one replaces it. Proposition 5 shows that this rule fails once the reseller also carries a competitor.

  • When the products are weakly substitutable, supplier 1 may abandon the reseller although it is the cheaper channel. Supplier 2 then prices just low enough to keep her out.
  • When they are strongly substitutable, supplier 1 keeps selling through the reseller although her own channel is cheaper. The reseller's order shields her from supplier 2.

The result explains why observed channel structures need not reflect relative channel costs. It also shows which assumption of the exclusive model drives its conclusions.

As far as the mission's searches found, no part of this model has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes a game with unobservable prices and belief-based stage-III conjectures. Such games occur throughout the supply-chain contracting literature, and the equilibrium predicate here can be reused for them. The paper's proofs are algebraic, but they verify deviation incentives across a piecewise-defined reseller response, with polynomials of degree eight in θ\thetaθ. A formal proof has to check every branch.

Difficulty

The reseller's best response is piecewise in q1q_1q1​: supplier 1 sells directly only while q1q_1q1​ is below a threshold, and her conjecture about q2q_2q2​ can hit zero. The paper analyzes the reseller's choice under a restriction (Lemmas 1–3) that rules out the conjecture q2′=0q_2'=0q2′​=0 for small q1q_1q1​, and argues that the excluded region cannot occur in equilibrium. Deviation prices, however, can push the reseller into that region. There the reseller's objective is not concave in q1q_1q1​, and supplier 1 may find a price cut that triggers a jump in the reseller's order. A proof of Lemma 4 cannot simply cite first-order conditions inside the restricted region: it has to rule out such jumps for every deviation price. Numerically this succeeds for θ≤9/10\theta\le 9/10θ≤9/10, but it fails for θ\thetaθ close to 111.

The uniqueness claim in part (a) is a statement about every strategy profile, including the reseller's off-path rules. It cannot be obtained by exhibiting one profile. The equilibrium prices themselves are not unique for c≤c2c\le c_2c≤c2​, so this claim concerns the channel use q1∗=0<y∗q_1^*=0<y^*q1∗​=0<y∗ only.

Formalization scope

Everything is real-valued and lives in NonExclEncroach.Channels. The conventions are:

  • the paper's case θ1d=1\theta_{1d}=1θ1d​=1 (§4), hence θ2d=θ\theta_{2d}=\thetaθ2d​=θ; §5 (θ1d=0.8\theta_{1d}=0.8θ1d​=0.8) is out of scope;
  • the standing range 0<θ<10<\theta<10<θ<1 and c0<c<c3c_0<c<c_3c0​<c<c3​ (p. 9), with ccc allowed to be negative;
  • prices and quantities in [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞);
  • best responses as argmaxes over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), with no tie-breaking rule;
  • a strategy profile made of the two prices, supplier 1's direct-quantity and conjecture rules as functions of the observed q1q_1q1​, and the reseller's order rule at every price pair. Supplier 1's belief is the equilibrium price of supplier 2 and does not move after supplier 2 deviates.

The goal quantifies over this equilibrium predicate. Stating Proposition 5 with the quantities read off Table 1, or as the sign of c2c_2c2​ alone, would reduce it to the sign of Num1\mathrm{Num1}Num1, and is ruled out.

Three statements depart from the page, and each departure is disclosed in its Formalization Note:

  • Part (b) of the goal and the Direct Only/Boundary part of Lemma 4 are stated for θ≤9/10\theta\le 9/10θ≤9/10. The Reseller & Direct part of Lemma 4 is stated for θ≤9/10\theta\le 9/10θ≤9/10 and c2<c<0c_2<c<0c2​<c<0. A numerical solution of the game shows that the paper's equilibrium prices fail outside these ranges: for θ\thetaθ near 111, for θ≥0.85\theta\ge 0.85θ≥0.85 with c>0.3c>0.3c>0.3, and just below c3c_3c3​ (where supplier 2 gains by raising her price until the reseller shuts down the direct channel). The paper also announces that the Direct Only and Direct Only Boundary prices are the unique equilibrium prices for c≤c2c\le c_2c≤c2​. That is false: a lower w2w_2w2​, with w1w_1w1​ at the reseller's threshold, can also be an equilibrium. Those prices are therefore stated as existence.
  • "There exist positive (negative) values of ccc" is strengthened to every ccc in (0,c2](0,c_2](0,c2​] (in (c2,0)(c_2,0)(c2​,0)).
  • Lemma 2 assumes that the upper branch of (4.19) is non-negative.

Not formalized: Lemma 3, whose threshold 2c−12c-12c−1 is correct only when w2=w2′w_2=w_2'w2​=w2′​; the appendix lemma eliminating equilibria with q2′=0q_2'=0q2′​=0; and Propositions 1–4 and 6–8.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general existence theorem for the reseller's order rule, and an analysis of the game for θ\thetaθ near 111.

Selected references

  • P. Hotkar and S. M. Gilbert, Supplier Encroachment in a Non-Exclusive Reselling Channel, Management Science, 2021; SSRN working paper 3238502. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3238502 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3786
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf and D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
  • D. G. Pearce, Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection, Econometrica 52(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911197
  • B. D. Bernheim, Rationalizable Strategic Behavior, Econometrica 52(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911196
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EconomicsOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Design and Pricing of Discretionary Service Lines: Under SPT Without Customer Heterogeneity, the Optimal Service Line Has Variety, No Cutoff and a Concave Price Falling at the TopResearch Paper

Motivation

Many services are discretionary: the provider chooses how long to spend with a customer, and a longer service is worth more to the customer. Medical consultations, legal and tax advice, repair and diagnostic work, and personal services such as hair styling all have this shape. A firm offering such services designs a service line, a menu of service durations with a price for each, and runs it on one shared resource. Longer services are more valuable, but they also slow the queue for everyone else, and customers dislike waiting.

L. Debo and C. Li, in Design and Pricing of Discretionary Service Lines (SSRN 3054741, 2017; later published in Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3670), study this problem by combining a Mussa–Rosen style product-line model with a single-server queue. A central question is whether congestion alone, with all customers identical, can make variety optimal. Under first-in-first-out (FIFO) service the answer is no: with homogeneous customers the optimal line collapses to a single service. Under the shortest-processing-time (SPT) priority rule the paper shows that the optimal line does offer variety. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Customers arrive as a Poisson process of rate Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0. A customer who receives a service of duration ttt gets value V(t,θˉ)=θˉt−bt2V(t,\bar\theta)=\bar\theta t-bt^2V(t,θˉ)=θˉt−bt2 with b>0b>0b>0, and pays a waiting cost ccc per unit of sojourn time, waiting plus service. All customers have the same quality sensitivity θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ: the paper's heterogeneity parameter Δ\DeltaΔ is 000. The standing assumption is 0<c<θˉ0<c<\bar\theta0<c<θˉ.

A service line is a shortest duration t‾\underline tt​, a longest duration tˉ\bar ttˉ, and a demand measure μ\muμ on [t‾,tˉ]⊆[0,∞)[\underline t,\bar t]\subseteq[0,\infty)[t​,tˉ]⊆[0,∞). When demand has a density λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t), customers choosing durations in [t,t+dt][t,t+dt][t,t+dt] arrive at rate λ(t) dt\lambda(t)\,dtλ(t)dt. Its moments are

Λk=∫τk μ(dτ),k=0,1,2,\Lambda_k=\int\tau^k\,\mu(d\tau),\qquad k=0,1,2,Λk​=∫τkμ(dτ),k=0,1,2,

so Λ0\Lambda_0Λ0​ is the throughput and Λ1\Lambda_1Λ1​ the load on the server. A line is feasible if Λ0≤Λ\Lambda_0\le\LambdaΛ0​≤Λ (customers may be turned away) and Λ1<1\Lambda_1<1Λ1​<1 (the queue is stable).

The server uses non-preemptive SPT: whenever it frees up, it starts the shortest waiting service. By Phipps and Van Voorhis (1956), a customer with duration ttt waits in queue for

W(t)=Λ2/2(1−∫t‾tτλ(τ) dτ)2W(t)=\frac{\Lambda_2/2}{\big(1-\int_{\underline t}^{t}\tau\lambda(\tau)\,d\tau\big)^2}W(t)=(1−∫t​t​τλ(τ)dτ)2Λ2​/2​

on average, which is eq. (7) of the paper. The expected queue length is Q=∫W dμQ=\int W\,d\muQ=∫Wdμ. With Δ=0\Delta=0Δ=0 the paper's mechanism-design problem (its Proposition 1) reduces to the firm's problem

max⁡ Π=(θˉΛ1−bΛ2)−c (Λ1+Q)over feasible service lines,(9)\max\ \Pi=(\bar\theta\Lambda_1-b\Lambda_2)-c\,(\Lambda_1+Q)\quad\text{over feasible service lines},\tag{9}max Π=(θˉΛ1​−bΛ2​)−c(Λ1​+Q)over feasible service lines,(9)

and the price of duration ttt is

P(t)=θˉt−bt2−c (t+W(t)),P(t)=\bar\theta t-bt^2-c\,(t+W(t)),P(t)=θˉt−bt2−c(t+W(t)),

which leaves every customer zero surplus.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

For every Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0, problem (9) has an optimal service line, and every optimal line has

  1. service variety, t‾<tˉ\underline t<\bar tt​<tˉ;
  2. no customer cutoff, Λ0=Λ\Lambda_0=\LambdaΛ0​=Λ;
  3. a price PPP that is concave on [t‾,tˉ][\underline t,\bar t][t​,tˉ], with
ddtP(tˉ)<0.\frac{d}{dt}P(\bar t)<0 .dtd​P(tˉ)<0.

There are also thresholds Λ‾,Λˉ>0\underline\Lambda,\bar\Lambda>0Λ​,Λˉ>0, depending on (θˉ,b,c)(\bar\theta,b,c)(θˉ,b,c), such that

ddtP(t‾)<0  for Λ∈(0,Λ‾),ddtP(t‾)>0  for Λ∈(Λˉ,∞).\frac{d}{dt}P(\underline t)<0\ \text{ for }\Lambda\in(0,\underline\Lambda),\qquad \frac{d}{dt}P(\underline t)>0\ \text{ for }\Lambda\in(\bar\Lambda,\infty).dtd​P(t​)<0  for Λ∈(0,Λ​),dtd​P(t​)>0  for Λ∈(Λˉ,∞).

The thresholds are existential, so the goal does not commit to their values.

Milestones

  • Corollary 1. For every feasible line, Q≥12{ln⁡(1−Λ1)}2Q\ge\tfrac12\{\ln(1-\Lambda_1)\}^2Q≥21​{ln(1−Λ1​)}2. The bound does not depend on Λ0\Lambda_0Λ0​, and it is attained by λ(t)∝1/t3\lambda(t)\propto1/t^3λ(t)∝1/t3 on a line with t‾<tˉ\underline t<\bar tt​<tˉ.
  • Root of (A–35). The equation F(ω)=0F(\omega)=0F(ω)=0 of the paper's Lemma A7 has a root ω∈(0,1)\omega\in(0,1)ω∈(0,1).
  • Lemma A7. Every optimal line is given in closed form by a root ω\omegaω of (A–35): Λ0=Λ\Lambda_0=\LambdaΛ0​=Λ, Λ1=1−ω\Lambda_1=1-\sqrt\omegaΛ1​=1−ω​, and explicit Λ2\Lambda_2Λ2​, t‾\underline tt​, tˉ\bar ttˉ.
  • Quadratic waiting time. At an optimum, W(t)=−α0+α2t2W(t)=-\alpha_0+\alpha_2t^2W(t)=−α0​+α2​t2 on [t‾,tˉ][\underline t,\bar t][t​,tˉ] with α2>0\alpha_2>0α2​>0 and 2α2tˉ=θˉ/c−12\alpha_2\bar t=\bar\theta/c-12α2​tˉ=θˉ/c−1.
  • Proposition 5 split into its parts: (i)–(ii), (iii) at the top end, and (iii) at the bottom end.

Significance

The result separates two sources of variety. Classical product-line theory obtains variety from heterogeneous tastes. Proposition 5 obtains it from operations alone: under SPT, short services jump the queue, so a spread of durations lowers total waiting below what any single duration achieves (Corollary 1 makes this exact). This outweighs the loss in service value from moving away from a single duration. The price result is the operational counterpart. Customers who choose the longest services wait the longest, so the price falls at the top of the line, and in small markets it falls along the whole line. This contrasts with FIFO, where the price always increases in duration.

Formalizing these results adds the following. The paper's proofs are long first-order-condition calculations over a constrained calculus-of-variations problem. They take existence of an optimum for granted, and they argue the bottom-end sign through Taylor approximations in the limits 2b/(Λc)→02b/(\Lambda c)\to02b/(Λc)→0 and →∞\to\infty→∞. A machine-checked proof would establish existence, rigorously derive the optimality conditions over all demand measures, and turn the asymptotic sign argument into a proof. As far as is known, none of these results, nor the SPT waiting-time formula, has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to optimize pointwise in λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t). This fails because WWW at duration ttt depends on the whole demand below ttt through the cumulative load, and on Λ2\Lambda_2Λ2​, so the objective is a nonlocal, nonconvex functional of the demand schedule. A second obvious idea is to compare with the best single service. That comparison shows only that some non-degenerate line beats one particular collapsed line. It neither produces an optimum nor rules out an optimum with an atom. Existence also needs an argument: the feasible set of measures is not compact in any naive sense, because the support can drift and the load constraint is strict. Finally, the sign of P′(t‾)P'(\underline t)P′(t​) depends on where the root of the transcendental equation (A–35) lies, and the paper controls this only asymptotically.

Formalization scope

Everything is real-valued. A service line is a Lean structure with endpoints lo, hi and a measure μ : Measure ℝ. Admissibility requires:

  • μ\muμ is finite and lives on [t‾,tˉ][\underline t,\bar t][t​,tˉ] with 0≤t‾≤tˉ0\le\underline t\le\bar t0≤t​≤tˉ;
  • μ\muμ charges every right-neighbourhood of t‾\underline tt​ and every left-neighbourhood of tˉ\bar ttˉ, so the endpoints are the shortest and longest services actually offered;
  • Λ1<1\Lambda_1<1Λ1​<1.

Feasibility adds Λ0≤Λ\Lambda_0\le\LambdaΛ0​≤Λ. The waiting time is

W(t)=Λ2/2(1−L−(t))(1−L+(t)),W(t)=\frac{\Lambda_2/2}{(1-L^-(t))(1-L^+(t))},W(t)=(1−L−(t))(1−L+(t))Λ2​/2​,

with L−L^-L− and L+L^+L+ the loads of durations <t<t<t and ≤t\le t≤t. This is eq. (7) for densities. At atoms it is Cobham's non-preemptive priority wait, with ties served FIFO, and for a single service it is the M/D/1 value Λ2/(2(1−Λ1))\Lambda_2/(2(1-\Lambda_1))Λ2​/(2(1−Λ1​)).

Point masses are allowed on purpose. If demand were restricted to densities, a collapsed line would be infeasible and t‾<tˉ\underline t<\bar tt​<tˉ would hold by construction. Letting the endpoints float freely, beyond the support, would trivialize it in the same way. Both encodings are therefore excluded.

The following conventions are committed:

  • the reduced problem (9) is used instead of the mechanism of Proposition 1;
  • Δ=0\Delta=0Δ=0 is built in, with no parameter for θ‾\underline\thetaθ​;
  • VVV is uncapped;
  • the price derivatives at t‾\underline tt​ and tˉ\bar ttˉ are one-sided, taken within [t‾,tˉ][\underline t,\bar t][t​,tˉ], because PPP has a kink at tˉ\bar ttˉ;
  • existence of an optimum is stated explicitly;
  • uniqueness of the optimum or of the root of (A–35) is not claimed;
  • the hypotheses b>0b>0b>0 and Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0 are added, since they are implicit in the paper.

A complete development needs: integration against finite measures on R\mathbb RR; existence of optimal measures under moment and load constraints; first-order conditions for the nonlocal functional QQQ; and real analysis of FFF. The SPT waiting-time functional and Corollary 1's queue-length bound are reusable for other priority-queue design problems. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, in particular Corollary 1 and the existence part of Lemma A7.

Selected references

  • L. Debo and C. Li, Design and Pricing of Discretionary Service Lines, SSRN working paper 3054741, October 2017. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3054741 (published in Management Science, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3670)
  • T. E. Phipps Jr. and W. R. Van Voorhis, Machine repair as a priority waiting-line problem, Operations Research 4(1), 76–86, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.4.1.76
  • A. Cobham, Priority assignment in waiting line problems, Journal of the Operations Research Society of America 2(1), 70–76, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2.1.70
  • M. Mussa and S. Rosen, Monopoly and product quality, Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 301–317, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(78)90085-6
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Algorithmic Game TheoryControl TheoryOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Games and Mean-Field Games with Impulse Controls: A Regular Solution of the N-Player Quasi-Variational Inequalities Gives a Nash EquilibriumResearch Paper

Why this game matters

An impulse control changes a system's state at a chosen instant, rather than continuously adjusting its drift. When several decision makers can intervene in the same state process, an intervention changes both the acting player's future cost and every opponent's. This makes the equilibrium question different from separate single-player control problems. Basei, Cao and Guo formulate a multidimensional, NNN-player stochastic impulse game and give a verification theorem for Nash equilibria in their preprint. This mission formalizes that theorem, Theorem 2.12, and the path and QVI statements on which its proof depends. It is the cost-minimizing, NNN-player generalization of the two-player impulse game of Aïd et al., posed independently because the conventions and equilibrium inequalities differ; that two-player verification theorem is itself an open target on the platform.

Game and costs

There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 players and a state XXX in a nonempty open domain S⊆RdS\subseteq\mathbb R^dS⊆Rd. Between interventions the state follows an Itô diffusion with drift bbb, volatility σ\sigmaσ, and an MMM-dimensional Brownian driver. Player iii chooses a strategy (Ai,ξi)(A_i,\xi_i)(Ai​,ξi​): a closed action region AiA_iAi​ and a continuous impulse rule ξi:S→Zi\xi_i:S\to Z_iξi​:S→Zi​. When the state enters AiA_iAi​, that player shifts it from yyy to Γi(y,ξi(y))\Gamma^i(y,\xi_i(y))Γi(y,ξi​(y)). The process stops at its exit time τS\tau_SτS​ from SSS. The action regions of an admissible profile are pairwise disjoint, although consecutive interventions at one instant can still occur when an impulse lands in another player's region. These rules are given in Definitions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.7 of the source.

Every player minimizes cost. Player iii pays a discounted running cost fif_ifi​, an own-intervention cost ϕi\phi_iϕi​, a cross cost ψi,j\psi_{i,j}ψi,j​ when player j≠ij\ne ij=i intervenes, and terminal cost hih_ihi​ if the game exits. With τi,k\tau_{i,k}τi,k​ and ξi,k\xi_{i,k}ξi,k​ denoting player iii's intervention times and impulses, the expected cost is

Ji(x;φ)=Ex ⁣[∫0τSe−ρisfi(Xs) ds+∑τi,k<τSe−ρiτi,kϕi(X(τi,k)−,ξi,k)+∑j≠i∑τj,k<τSe−ρiτj,kψi,j(X(τj,k)−,ξj,k)+1{τS<∞}e−ρiτShi(XτS)].J^i(x;\varphi)=\mathbb E_x\!\left[\int_0^{\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i s}f_i(X_s)\,ds+\sum_{\tau_{i,k}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{i,k}}\phi_i(X_{(\tau_{i,k})-},\xi_{i,k})+\sum_{j\ne i}\sum_{\tau_{j,k}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{j,k}}\psi_{i,j}(X_{(\tau_{j,k})-},\xi_{j,k})+\mathbf1_{\{\tau_S<\infty\}}e^{-\rho_i\tau_S}h_i(X_{\tau_S})\right].Ji(x;φ)=Ex​​∫0τS​​e−ρi​sfi​(Xs​)ds+τi,k​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τi,k​ϕi​(X(τi,k​)−​,ξi,k​)+j=i∑​τj,k​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τj,k​ψi,j​(X(τj,k​)−​,ξj,k​)+1{τS​<∞}​e−ρi​τS​hi​(XτS​​)​.

An admissible profile satisfies the source's integrability, moment and nonaccumulation conditions. A Nash equilibrium is an admissible profile for which no player can lower their own cost through an admissible unilateral change Definitions 2.6–2.8.

Formalization targets

For candidate values ViV_iVi​ and minimizing impulses ξi\xi_iξi​, define the own intervention operator MiVi(y)=Vi(Γi(y,ξi(y)))+ϕi(y,ξi(y))\mathcal M_iV_i(y)=V_i(\Gamma^i(y,\xi_i(y)))+\phi_i(y,\xi_i(y))Mi​Vi​(y)=Vi​(Γi(y,ξi​(y)))+ϕi​(y,ξi​(y)) and the cross intervention operator Hi,jVi(y)=Vi(Γj(y,ξj(y)))+ψi,j(y,ξj(y))\mathcal H_{i,j}V_i(y)=V_i(\Gamma^j(y,\xi_j(y)))+\psi_{i,j}(y,\xi_j(y))Hi,j​Vi​(y)=Vi​(Γj(y,ξj​(y)))+ψi,j​(y,ξj​(y)). Put Di={y∈S:MiVi(y)−Vi(y)>0}D_i=\{y\in S:\mathcal M_iV_i(y)-V_i(y)>0\}Di​={y∈S:Mi​Vi​(y)−Vi​(y)>0}, Ai∗={y∈S:MiVi(y)−Vi(y)=0}A_i^*=\{y\in S:\mathcal M_iV_i(y)-V_i(y)=0\}Ai∗​={y∈S:Mi​Vi​(y)−Vi​(y)=0}, and Wi=S∩⋂j≠iDjW_i=S\cap\bigcap_{j\ne i}D_jWi​=S∩⋂j=i​Dj​. The QVI system requires a boundary limit Vi→hiV_i\to h_iVi​→hi​, nonnegative own intervention gaps, zero cross gaps when an opponent acts, and the diffusion condition

min⁡{LVi(y)−ρiVi(y)+fi(y), MiVi(y)−Vi(y)}=0(y∈Wi∖∂Di).\min\{\mathcal LV_i(y)-\rho_iV_i(y)+f_i(y),\ \mathcal M_iV_i(y)-V_i(y)\}=0 \qquad(y\in W_i\setminus\partial D_i).min{LVi​(y)−ρi​Vi​(y)+fi​(y), Mi​Vi​(y)−Vi​(y)}=0(y∈Wi​∖∂Di​).

Here L\mathcal LL is the generator of the diffusion with the same bbb and σ\sigmaσ equations (2.10)–(2.13).

The goal, Theorem 2.12, says that if every ξi\xi_iξi​ uniquely minimizes the own intervention expression, the ViV_iVi​ solve the full QVI system and have the stated smoothness and boundary regularity, and φ∗=((Ai∗,ξi))i\varphi^*=((A_i^*,\xi_i))_iφ∗=((Ai∗​,ξi​))i​ is admissible at xxx, then (with one added hypothesis, explained under Formalization scope)

φ∗ is a Nash equilibrium,Vi(x)=Ji(x;φ∗)for every i.\varphi^*\text{ is a Nash equilibrium},\qquad V_i(x)=J^i(x;\varphi^*)\quad\text{for every }i.φ∗ is a Nash equilibrium,Vi​(x)=Ji(x;φ∗)for every i.

The milestone list follows the proof's path: the controlled-process representation and jumps in Lemma 2.3; the candidate opponents' waiting and intervention properties in (2.15); the smooth approximations Vi,mV_{i,m}Vi,m​ of (a)–(c), which the paper takes from Øksendal, proof of Thm. 10.4.1 and App. D; the three pointwise comparisons (2.19)–(2.21), a thin bridge from the QVI to the proof; the deviation bound in Step 1; and the value identity in Step 2. The localized Itô identity (2.18) is not a separate milestone: as printed, its expectation is not shown to be finite near the boundary of WiW_iWi​, and with simultaneous interventions its jump terms must be read stage by stage, so a faithful statement needs choices the page does not make. It remains the natural intermediate target between (a)–(c) and Step 1.

What the result provides

The theorem turns a regular solution of a coupled, nonlocal QVI system into a certificate for an equilibrium and its expected costs. It supplies the bridge from analytic candidate value functions to the original stochastic game. The result is proved in the preprint; the Lean declarations here are open statements, so the remaining work is a machine-checked development of the path construction, Itô formula across interventions, approximation near action boundaries and limiting arguments. The stochastic basis and diffusion generator reused here are published definitions from the two-player development, while the NNN-player game and its minimizing QVI are new reusable interfaces.

Main obstacles

Applying a smooth Itô formula directly to Vi(Xt)V_i(X_t)Vi​(Xt​) fails because XXX jumps at interventions and ViV_iVi​ is only C1C^1C1 across ∂Di\partial D_i∂Di​. The source therefore uses smooth approximations and localizes before taking limits Theorem 2.12, proof. The analytic challenge is to control the generator of the approximants near a Lipschitz surface; the probabilistic challenge is to justify the expectation and the limits from the exact admissibility conditions. Treating the QVI as an inequality everywhere in SSS would impose a generator value where the second derivative need not exist.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the state as a Euclidean space, players as Fin N with N≥1N\ge1N≥1, costs and values as real numbers, and times as [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The published SolvesFrom predicate encodes the restarted SDE through a Brownian Itô integral; the filtration satisfies the usual conditions and supports an F\mathcal FF-Brownian motion. The source names the Brownian natural filtration, so this is a disclosed generalization. An admissible realization is a family of diffusion pieces solving that same SDE. Membership in Φx\Phi_xΦx​ asks for at least one realization, while cost identities and Nash comparisons cover every admissible realization. The expected cost includes an integrability requirement, and admissibility asks that the running-cost integrand be integrable in time along almost every path, which is how "provided that the right-hand side exists and is finite" (Definition 2.6) is read. This prevents Lean's integral default on a nonintegrable payoff from making the theorem empty.

SSS is open: the page calls it "a non-empty subset", but p. 9 says that ViV_iVi​ "is not defined in ∂S\partial S∂S", which is openness, and the C2C^2C2 condition (ii) and the generator in (2.13d) need an open domain. One hypothesis is added to Theorem 2.12, Step 1 and Step 2: along every admissible deviation, the time the state spends on ∂Di\partial D_i∂Di​ has Lebesgue measure zero almost surely. This is the occupation-time hypothesis of Øksendal's Theorem 10.4.1, the result whose proof the paper cites for (a)–(c); the passage from (2.17) to (2.18) uses it, because (c) controls LVi,m\mathcal LV_{i,m}LVi,m​ only off ∂Di\partial D_i∂Di​. The page omits it, and the theorem fails without it when σ\sigmaσ is degenerate: a path can run along ∂Di\partial D_i∂Di​, where (2.13d) imposes nothing on fif_ifi​. For a nondegenerate diffusion the hypothesis holds automatically. In (a)–(c), WiW_iWi​ is assumed open, as the page's C2(∩j≠iDj)C^2(\cap_{j\ne i}\mathcal D_j)C2(∩j=i​Dj​) presupposes; in the proof it is open because SSS is open and the Aj∗A_j^*Aj∗​ are closed.

The path construction uses entry into closed action regions, choosing the least index when multiple entry times agree; exit from SSS uses the next stage's exit time. Discount at infinite time is zero. The path norm in the moment condition is taken through τS\tau_SτS​, because a process continued beyond game exit could have an infinite global supremum and make Φx\Phi_xΦx​ empty. Cross costs use player jjj's intervention time. Boundary data in (2.13a) are limits from within SSS; the generator equation and derivative bounds are required where the derivatives exist, off ∂Di\partial D_i∂Di​. The common waiting region includes SSS, so it remains SSS for one player. Action regions are built from ViV_iVi​ and ξi\xi_iξi​, not free variables. The source's printed formulas also call scalar costs vector valued and state some jump identities without accounting for consecutive interventions; the definitions and Lemma 2.3 follow the operational readings described in the item notes. In Lemma 2.3 the avoidance of the action regions is stated at positive times, since the initial state may lie in an action region without an intervention at time 000. A statement that drops the QVI clauses, fixes one realization for the conclusion, restricts the deviations, or reads (2.8) as a supremum over all times (which makes Φx\Phi_xΦx​ empty for bounded SSS) would trivialize the goal and is ruled out by the definitions.

The definitions of the N-player path, admissibility, cost and QVI are intended for reuse. Contributions that establish the localized Itô identity, smooth approximation and dominated-convergence steps are especially useful. Every proposed proof must preserve the full QVI system, all admissible unilateral deviations, and the source's standing assumptions.

Selected references

  • M. Basei, H. Cao and X. Guo, Nonzero-sum stochastic games and mean-field games with impulse controls, arXiv:1901.08085v4, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.08085v4
  • B. Øksendal, Stochastic Differential Equations, 6th ed., Springer, 2003 (Theorem 10.4.1 and Appendix D). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14394-6
  • R. Aïd et al., Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications, Mathematics of Operations Research 45(1), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0982
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A General Analysis of Sequential Social Learning: Asymptotic Learning Holds for Every Utility Function if and only if Private Signals Are Totally UnboundedResearch Paper

Motivation

In sequential social learning, agents act one after another. Each agent observes the actions of its predecessors and a private signal about an unknown state of the world. The model explains herd behaviour, information cascades and the adoption of products, technologies and opinions when people imitate one another. The basic question is whether the population eventually acts as if it knew the state, or whether public information can lock agents into a wrong action.

The answer depends on the setting:

  • Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992) and Banerjee (1992) showed that with finitely many signals agents eventually ignore their private information and may herd on a wrong action.
  • Smith and Sorensen (2000) characterized learning for binary states and actions: asymptotic learning holds if and only if private beliefs are unbounded, meaning a single signal can make an agent arbitrarily sure of either state.
  • Arieli and Mueller-Frank (preprint SSRN 2466903, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021) treat general state spaces, compact action spaces and all bounded utilities that are continuous in the action. They characterize when learning holds for every such utility.

Setting

A social learning model (Ω,μ,A,S,F)(\Omega,\mu,A,S,F)(Ω,μ,A,S,F) consists of the following:

  • a separable complete metric state space Ω\OmegaΩ with a prior μ\muμ;
  • a compact metric action space AAA with at least two actions;
  • a standard Borel signal space SSS;
  • a Markov kernel F:Ω→Δ(S)F:\Omega\to\Delta(S)F:Ω→Δ(S), ω↦Fω\omega\mapsto F_\omegaω↦Fω​. Any two Fω,Fω′F_\omega, F_{\omega'}Fω​,Fω′​ are mutually absolutely continuous, and distinct states have distinct signal laws.

A state ω∼μ\omega\sim\muω∼μ is drawn once. Agents t=0,1,2,…t=0,1,2,\dotst=0,1,2,… act in sequence. Agent ttt observes the history ht=(a0,…,at−1)h_t=(a_0,\dots,a_{t-1})ht​=(a0​,…,at−1​) and a private signal st∼Fωs_t\sim F_\omegast​∼Fω​, drawn conditionally i.i.d. given ω\omegaω. It then chooses an action by a mixed strategy σt(ht,st)∈Δ(A)\sigma_t(h_t,s_t)\in\Delta(A)σt​(ht​,st​)∈Δ(A). All agents share a utility uuu from the class UUU of bounded measurable functions A×Ω→RA\times\Omega\to\mathbb RA×Ω→R that are continuous in the action. The profile σ\sigmaσ, the prior and the kernel determine the play measure PσP_\sigmaPσ​ on states, signals and actions.

A profile is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) if no agent can raise its expected utility Eσ[u(at,ω)]E_\sigma[u(a_t,\omega)]Eσ​[u(at​,ω)] by changing its own strategy. Write O(ω)=max⁡au(a,ω)O(\omega)=\max_a u(a,\omega)O(ω)=maxa​u(a,ω) and yt=u(at,ω)y_t=u(a_t,\omega)yt​=u(at​,ω).

  • Asymptotic learning holds for uuu if yt→O(ω)y_t\to O(\omega)yt​→O(ω) PσP_\sigmaPσ​-almost surely in every PBE.
  • Adequate learning holds if asymptotic learning holds for every u∈Uu\in Uu∈U.

Let μF(E∣s)\mu F(E\mid s)μF(E∣s) be the posterior probability of an event E⊆ΩE\subseteq\OmegaE⊆Ω after one signal sss. The information structure has totally unbounded signals if the support of the law of μF(E∣s)\mu F(E\mid s)μF(E∣s) contains both 000 and 111 for every event EEE with 0<μ(E)<10<\mu(E)<10<μ(E)<1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

adequate learning holds  ⟺  (F,μ) features totally unbounded signals.\text{adequate learning holds}\iff (F,\mu)\text{ features totally unbounded signals.}adequate learning holds⟺(F,μ) features totally unbounded signals.

The statement is an equivalence between two properties of the model. It has no constants.

Milestones

The milestones are the results the paper's proof uses, in attack order:

  1. Lemma 3. A utility in UUU is jointly uniformly continuous on a compact set of measure at least 1−ε1-\varepsilon1−ε.
  2. Lemma 4. A single agent observing two signals has an ε\varepsilonε-optimal strategy that takes finitely many actions and is constant on the cells of a finite product partition.
  3. Lemma 1. The vanishing value of private information: dt=Eσ[yt−y^t∣ht]→0d_t=E_\sigma[y_t-\hat y_t\mid h_t]\to0dt​=Eσ​[yt​−y^​t​∣ht​]→0 almost surely in every PBE, where y^t=max⁡aEσ[u(a,ω)∣ht]\hat y_t=\max_a E_\sigma[u(a,\omega)\mid h_t]y^​t​=maxa​Eσ​[u(a,ω)∣ht​].
  4. Lemma 2. The belief at infinity μ∞(⋅∣h)\mu_\infty(\cdot\mid h)μ∞​(⋅∣h) is almost surely a degenerate prior: one more signal has zero value against it.
  5. Lemma 5 (first part). Total unboundedness passes from μ\muμ to every ν≪μ\nu\ll\muν≪μ with dν/dμ≤Cd\nu/d\mu\le Cdν/dμ≤C.
  6. Lemma 7. Conditioning P∈Δ(Δ(Ω))\mathbf P\in\Delta(\Delta(\Omega))P∈Δ(Δ(Ω)) on a set KKK gives a barycenter whose density with respect to P~\tilde{\mathbf P}P~ is at most 1/P(K)1/\mathbf P(K)1/P(K).
  7. Lemma 8. If learning fails with probability above r′r'r′, there is a set BBB with μ(B)>0\mu(B)>0μ(B)>0 on which the failure persists, and every belief concentrated near BBB acts almost optimally on BBB.
  8. Necessity. Without totally unbounded signals, some u∈Uu\in Uu∈U has no asymptotic learning.

Significance

Theorem 1 separates two questions. Whether learning succeeds for a particular utility depends on the utility, and for finite actions the paper gives weaker sufficient conditions (its Theorems 2 and 3). Whether learning succeeds for every utility depends on the information structure alone, and total unboundedness is exactly the condition. The theorem extends Smith and Sorensen's binary characterization to arbitrary separable complete metric state spaces. It also shows that their convex-hull condition does not carry over to more states. Lemma 1, the vanishing value of private information, holds in every sequential social learning game and is a reusable tool beyond this paper.

The results are proved on paper. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires:

  • the equilibrium play measure, built by the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem;
  • martingale convergence of public beliefs;
  • a regular-conditional-probability treatment of beliefs over general Polish state spaces.

The paper's proofs pass over some of this measure theory, for example the measurability of best replies and of the maximal posterior payoff. A formal proof has to supply it.

Difficulty

Necessity is a direct construction. The difficulty is sufficiency. The natural first idea is to copy the binary argument: the public belief is a martingale, so it converges, and at a limit belief in the interior of the simplex unbounded signals would give private information positive value. With a general state space and a general utility this breaks in two places:

  • the limit belief μ∞\mu_\inftyμ∞​ is a random measure on Ω\OmegaΩ, not a number in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1);
  • "positive value of a signal" has to hold uniformly over agents who face different histories.

The paper handles this with three ingredients:

  • Lemma 2, whose proof needs an imitation argument through Lemma 4's finite discretization;
  • Lemma 8, which localizes the failure of learning to a small set BBB;
  • Lemmas 5 and 7, which transfer total unboundedness from the prior to an averaged limit belief.

Each step uses facts about conditional distributions that hold only almost everywhere.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the namespace SeqSocialLearning.Adequate on top of Mathlib. The conventions are:

  • Agents are indexed from 000: Lean's agent ttt is the paper's agent t+1t+1t+1 and sees Fin t → A.
  • Strategies are Markov kernels Kernel ((Fin t → A) × S) A, so they are mixed, as on p. 4. Restricting to pure strategies would change the equilibrium set.
  • The play measure PσP_\sigmaPσ​ is constructed with Kernel.trajMeasure on trajectories of triples (ω,st,at)(\omega,s_t,a_t)(ω,st​,at​). The state is copied into every coordinate.
  • PBE is the paper's ex-ante definition: no profitable unilateral measurable deviation. No off-path optimality is imposed.
  • Posteriors use Mathlib's posterior and condDistrib. "The support contains 000 and 111" is stated in the equivalent ε\varepsilonε-form.
  • Degeneracy of a prior is the equality of the one-signal decision value with the no-signal value.
  • Lemma 8's min⁡ω′∈B\min_{\omega'\in B}minω′∈B​ is an infimum.
  • Lemma 4's product partition is a grid given by two finite measurable maps.
  • Nonempty Ω appears as a hypothesis; it follows from μ\muμ being a probability measure.

Two formalizations would make the goal trivial, and both are excluded:

  • quantifying total unboundedness over all events, including those of prior probability 000 or 111, would make it always false;
  • positing the play measure by a predicate instead of constructing it would let it be arbitrary.

Contributions are welcome on two kinds of work:

  • reusable infrastructure: measurable selection of best replies on compact action spaces, martingale convergence of condDistrib along a filtration, and the identification of the play measure's marginals;
  • the proofs of the eight milestones and of the goal.

Theorems 2 and 3 (finite actions), Lemma 6, the second part of Lemma 5 and Example 1 are not part of this mission.

Selected references

  • I. Arieli and M. Mueller-Frank, A General Analysis of Sequential Social Learning, SSRN 2466903 (version of February 21, 2019); Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1093 — https://ssrn.com/abstract=2466903
  • L. Smith and P. Sørensen, Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning, Econometrica 68(2), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00113
  • S. Bikhchandani, D. Hirshleifer and I. Welch, A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades, Journal of Political Economy 100(5), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1086/261849
  • A. V. Banerjee, A Simple Model of Herd Behavior, Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3), 1992. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118364
  • D. Rosenberg, E. Solan and N. Vieille, Informational Externalities and Emergence of Consensus, Games and Economic Behavior 66(2), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2008.07.007
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Finite State Mean Field Games with Wright–Fisher Common Noise as Limits of N-Player Weighted Games: Normalized N-Player Equilibrium Values Converge to the Master Equation at a Polynomial RateResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean field games describe Nash equilibria of games with very many symmetric players by a single limiting object. Whether, and how fast, the equilibria of the NNN-player game converge to that limit is the convergence problem. For games with common noise, a source of randomness shared by all players, the standard route goes through the master equation, a PDE on the space of probability measures whose solution UUU gives the equilibrium value of a representative player as a function of the population's distribution (Cardaliaguet, Delarue, Lasry and Lions, 2019, arXiv:1509.02505).

For finite state spaces the distribution is a point of the simplex. Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue (J. Math. Pures Appl. 147, 2021) introduced a common noise of Wright–Fisher type, the noise of population genetics, which keeps the distribution in the simplex and makes the master equation uniquely solvable. Its NNN-player counterpart is not obvious, because the Wright–Fisher diffusion is the limit of a resampling of the population, not of independent player noises. The paper behind this mission (Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022, arXiv:2012.04845) builds such a game, in which players carry weights that are resampled at random times, and proves that its normalized equilibrium values converge to UUU at a polynomial rate.

Setting

There are d≥1d \ge 1d≥1 states [ ⁣[d] ⁣]={1,…,d}[\![d]\!] = \{1,\dots,d\}[[d]]={1,…,d} and N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 players. Player lll is at a state xlx^lxl and carries a weight yl≥0y^l \ge 0yl≥0; the weights are rational and sum to NNN, and the set of such weight tuples is Y\mathbb YY. The players interact through the weighted empirical measure

μx,yN[i]=1N∑lyl1{xl=i},\mu^N_{x,y}[i] = \frac1N\sum_{l} y^l \mathbb 1_{\{x^l = i\}},μx,yN​[i]=N1​l∑​yl1{xl=i}​,

a point of the simplex Sd−1={p∈Rd:pi≥0,∑ipi=1}\mathcal S_{d-1} = \{p \in \mathbb R^d : p_i \ge 0, \sum_i p_i = 1\}Sd−1​={p∈Rd:pi​≥0,∑i​pi​=1}.

Each player controls the rates at which it jumps between states, at quadratic cost. A drift φ(μ[j])\varphi(\mu[j])φ(μ[j]) pushes players towards nearly empty states, where φ\varphiφ is non-increasing and Lipschitz, equal to κ\kappaκ on [0,δ][0,\delta][0,δ] and to 000 beyond 2δ2\delta2δ. At rate εN\varepsilon NεN the common noise draws S∼Multinomial(N,μx,yN)S \sim \mathrm{Multinomial}(N, \mu^N_{x,y})S∼Multinomial(N,μx,yN​) and replaces every weight yly^lyl by ylS[xl]/(Nμx,yN[xl])y^l S[x^l]/(N\mu^N_{x,y}[x^l])ylS[xl]/(Nμx,yN​[xl]). Players pay ylf(xl,μ)y^l f(x^l, \mu)ylf(xl,μ) per unit time and ylg(xl,μT)y^l g(x^l,\mu_T)ylg(xl,μT​) at time TTT.

The equilibrium values divided by the weights, wN,l(t,x,y)w^{N,l}(t,x,y)wN,l(t,x,y), solve the normalized Nash system: a countable family of ordinary differential equations in ttt, indexed by (l,x,y)(l, x, y)(l,x,y), with the Hamiltonian H(i,u)=−12∑j≠i(ui−uj)+2H(i,u) = -\frac12\sum_{j\ne i}(u^i - u^j)_+^2H(i,u)=−21​∑j=i​(ui−uj)+2​ and the terminal condition wN,l(T,x,y)=g(xl,μx,yN)w^{N,l}(T,x,y) = g(x^l, \mu^N_{x,y})wN,l(T,x,y)=g(xl,μx,yN​).

The limit object is U=(U1,…,Ud)U = (U^1,\dots,U^d)U=(U1,…,Ud) on [0,T]×Sd−1[0,T]\times\mathcal S_{d-1}[0,T]×Sd−1​, solving the master equation

∂tUi+H(i,U)+fi+∑jφ(pj)(Uj−Ui)+∑j,kpk[φ(pj)+(Uk−Uj)+](djUi−dkUi)+ε∑j≠ipj(diUi−djUi)+ε2∑j,k(pjδjk−pjpk)dj,k2Ui=0\partial_tU^i + H(i, U) + f^i + \sum_j\varphi(p_j)(U^j - U^i) + \sum_{j,k}p_k[\varphi(p_j) + (U^k - U^j)_+](\mathfrak d_jU^i - \mathfrak d_kU^i) + \varepsilon\sum_{j\ne i}p_j(\mathfrak d_iU^i - \mathfrak d_jU^i) + \frac\varepsilon2\sum_{j,k}(p_j\delta_{jk} - p_jp_k)\mathfrak d^2_{j,k}U^i = 0∂t​Ui+H(i,U)+fi+j∑​φ(pj​)(Uj−Ui)+j,k∑​pk​[φ(pj​)+(Uk−Uj)+​](dj​Ui−dk​Ui)+εj=i∑​pj​(di​Ui−dj​Ui)+2ε​j,k∑​(pj​δjk​−pj​pk​)dj,k2​Ui=0

with Ui(T,⋅)=giU^i(T,\cdot) = g^iUi(T,⋅)=gi. Here di\mathfrak d_idi​ are the intrinsic derivatives on the simplex, dih(p)=1d∑m∂ei−emh(p)\mathfrak d_ih(p) = \frac1d\sum_m\partial_{e_i - e_m}h(p)di​h(p)=d1​∑m​∂ei​−em​​h(p), and the last term is the Kimura operator of Wright–Fisher diffusions. The mean-field prediction for player lll is zN,l(t,x,y)=Uxl(t,μx,yN)z^{N,l}(t,x,y) = U^{x^l}(t,\mu^N_{x,y})zN,l(t,x,y)=Uxl(t,μx,yN​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

For κ\kappaκ large enough, there are χ>0\chi > 0χ>0 and CCC such that for every NNN, lll, ttt, xxx and y∈Yy \in \mathbb Yy∈Y,

∣(zN,l−wN,l)(t,x,y)∣≤CN−χ(∏i1N−1/8+μx,yN[i])1/(2d)(1N∑m∣ym∣3)1/2.\big|(z^{N,l} - w^{N,l})(t,x,y)\big| \le CN^{-\chi}\Big(\prod_{i}\frac{1}{N^{-1/8} + \mu^N_{x,y}[i]}\Big)^{1/(2d)}\Big(\frac1N\sum_m|y^m|^3\Big)^{1/2}.​(zN,l−wN,l)(t,x,y)​≤CN−χ(i∏​N−1/8+μx,yN​[i]1​)1/(2d)(N1​m∑​∣ym∣3)1/2.

The exponent χ\chiχ is existential, so an improvement of the rate does not invalidate the target.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 3.1: the normalized Nash system has a unique bounded solution.
  2. Proposition 3.2: that solution is bounded by T∥f∥∞+∥g∥∞T\|f\|_\infty + \|g\|_\inftyT∥f∥∞​+∥g∥∞​, uniformly in NNN.
  3. Lemma 4.5: moment and deviation bounds for (Sμ[i]/(Nμ[i]))ℓ−1(S_\mu[i]/(N\mu[i]))^\ell - 1(Sμ​[i]/(Nμ[i]))ℓ−1.
  4. Lemmas 4.8–4.11: the common-noise, discrete-gradient, drift and Hamiltonian terms of the Nash system along zN,lz^{N,l}zN,l against those of the master equation.
  5. Proposition 4.6 with Remark 4.7: zN,lz^{N,l}zN,l solves the Nash system up to a rest O(N−η)O(N^{-\eta})O(N−η) on the set TN\mathcal T_NTN​ where min⁡iμx,yN[i]≥N−ϵ\min_i\mu^N_{x,y}[i] \ge N^{-\epsilon}mini​μx,yN​[i]≥N−ϵ and max⁡lyl≤12N1−ϵ\max_l y^l \le \frac12N^{1-\epsilon}maxl​yl≤21​N1−ϵ.

Significance

Theorem 2.4 gives a convergence rate for a finite-state mean field game whose common noise keeps the population on the simplex. It shows that the master equation of the earlier paper is the right limit of a concrete finite game, and with a diffusion-approximation argument it yields the paper's second main result, the weak convergence of the equilibrium empirical measure to the Wright–Fisher-type SDE (Theorem 2.6). The bound is not uniform in (x,y)(x,y)(x,y): it degenerates near the boundary of the simplex and for spread-out weights, which reflects the singular coefficient 1/μ[xl]1/\mu[x^l]1/μ[xl] in the resampling.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement of the convergence problem for a game with weighted players, a formal Nash system on a countable state space, intrinsic derivatives on the simplex, and multinomial moment estimates.

Difficulty

The usual proof of convergence plugs zN,lz^{N,l}zN,l into the Nash system, controls the rest, and closes with a Gronwall argument along the NNN-player dynamics. Here the rest is small only on TN\mathcal T_NTN​, away from the boundary of the simplex and for moderate weights; the second derivatives of UUU may blow up at the boundary, and the resampling ratio S[i]/(Nμ[i])S[i]/(N\mu[i])S[i]/(Nμ[i]) is unbounded as μ[i]→0\mu[i] \to 0μ[i]→0. A uniform estimate of sup⁡x,y∣zN,l−wN,l∣\sup_{x,y}|z^{N,l} - w^{N,l}|supx,y​∣zN,l−wN,l∣ is therefore not available, and the comparison must be weighted by functions of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) whose expectations along the dynamics can be controlled. The weights are unbounded and enter through their moments.

Formalization scope

States are Fin d and players Fin N, with d≥1d \ge 1d≥1 and N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 (no N≥2N \ge 2N≥2). Weights are rational, and every equation and conclusion is required only for y∈Yy \in \mathbb Yy∈Y and t∈[0,T]t \in [0,T]t∈[0,T]. The simplex is Mathlib's stdSimplex. Intrinsic derivatives use lineDeriv; multinomial expectations are finite sums over Finset.Nat.antidiagonalTuple. The resampling ratio is 111 when μ[xl]=0\mu[x^l] = 0μ[xl]=0, as in the paper. Solutions of the Nash system and of the master equation are classical in ttt, with one-sided derivatives at 000 and TTT. The Nash system is solved by any bounded classical solution; Proposition 3.1 says there is exactly one.

The formalization commits to the following readings of the source.

  • ε\varepsilonε for ε2\varepsilon^2ε2. The master equation carries ε\varepsilonε and ε/2\varepsilon/2ε/2 in front of the common-noise terms where (2.3) prints ε2\varepsilon^2ε2 and ε2/2\varepsilon^2/2ε2/2. The NNN-player noise rings at rate εN\varepsilon NεN, and the limit SDE (2.4) has intensity ε\sqrt\varepsilonε​; with ε2\varepsilon^2ε2, Proposition 4.6 and Theorem 2.4 would be false.
  • Regularity class. The Wright–Fisher Hölder space of Proposition 2.1, which the paper only describes, is replaced by an explicit class: UUU continuous on [0,T]×Sd−1[0,T]\times\mathcal S_{d-1}[0,T]×Sd−1​, differentiable along the simplex in the interior together with dU\mathfrak dUdU, with UUU and dU\mathfrak dUdU bounded, and dU\mathfrak dUdU and pjpk dj,k2U\sqrt{p_jp_k}\,\mathfrak d^2_{j,k}Upj​pk​​dj,k2​U bounded and γ′/2\gamma'/2γ′/2-Hölder. These are the properties §7 says the proofs use. The Hölder assumptions on f,gf, gf,g are replaced by boundedness.
  • Constants. χ\chiχ is chosen after ddd and γ′\gamma'γ′, the threshold κˉ0\bar\kappa_0κˉ0​ after d,ε,Td, \varepsilon, Td,ε,T and the bounds of f,gf, gf,g, and CCC after all model data and UUU, before NNN and the point.
  • Remark 4.7. Lemmas 4.9–4.11 and Proposition 4.6 are stated for zN,lz^{N,l}zN,l, so no division by a vanishing weight occurs.
  • Two printed slips. Lemma 4.9's (4.28) uses dUj\mathfrak dU^jdUj, not dUxl\mathfrak dU^{x^l}dUxl, and Lemma 4.5's (4.19) assumes Nμ[i]≥1N\mu[i] \ge 1Nμ[i]≥1, without which it fails.

The bound is not trivial. Since ∣z−w∣≤2(T∥f∥∞+∥g∥∞)|z - w| \le 2(T\|f\|_\infty + \|g\|_\infty)∣z−w∣≤2(T∥f∥∞​+∥g∥∞​) and the right side is at least of order CN−χCN^{-\chi}CN−χ, a constant CCC chosen after NNN would make the theorem empty; CCC precedes NNN. The functions www and UUU enter only through the Nash system and the master equation, and the class of UUU is not empty: for d=1d = 1d=1 the function U1(t)=g1+(T−t)f1U^1(t) = g^1 + (T - t)f^1U1(t)=g1+(T−t)f1 is in it.

The mission takes UUU as given. Its existence for d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 is Theorems 3.2 and 3.4 of Bayraktar, Cecchin, Cohen and Delarue (2021), quoted as Proposition 2.1, which is not a target. Also outside the mission are the NNN-player game itself (Propositions 2.2–2.3), Theorem 2.6, and the process estimates of §4.1 (Theorem 4.1, Remark 4.2, Propositions 4.3–4.4), which need a continuous-time Markov chain with a martingale-problem characterization. Contributions are welcome on every milestone; the multinomial estimates and the simplex calculus are reusable elsewhere.

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, A. Cecchin, A. Cohen, F. Delarue, Finite state mean field games with Wright–Fisher common noise as limits of N-player weighted games, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:2012.04845v2
  • E. Bayraktar, A. Cecchin, A. Cohen, F. Delarue, Finite state mean field games with Wright–Fisher common noise, Journal de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées 147:98–162, 2021. search
  • P. Cardaliaguet, F. Delarue, J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, The Master Equation and the Convergence Problem in Mean Field Games, Annals of Mathematics Studies 201, Princeton University Press, 2019. arXiv:1509.02505
  • C. L. Epstein, R. Mazzeo, Degenerate Diffusion Operators Arising in Population Biology, Annals of Mathematics Studies 185, Princeton University Press, 2013. search
  • S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. doi:10.1002/9780470316658
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Dynkin Game on Assets with Incomplete Information on the Return: The Entry Times of the Two Stopping Regions Form a Saddle Point When k > 0Research Paper

Motivation

A game option (or Israeli option, introduced by Kifer, Game options, 2000) is an American option whose seller may also cancel the contract at any time, paying the exercise payoff plus a penalty. Pricing it is a Dynkin game: a zero-sum optimal stopping game in which the buyer chooses an exercise time to maximise the discounted payoff and the seller chooses a cancellation time to minimise it. Such contracts model, for instance, a public concession that the granting authority may revoke against compensation.

In the classical theory the drift of the underlying asset is known. De Angelis, Gensbittel and Villeneuve (arXiv:1705.07352v4, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021) study the perpetual game call option when neither player knows whether the asset pays a dividend: the return is r−δ0Dr-\delta_0Dr−δ0​D with an unobservable D∈{0,1}D\in\{0,1\}D∈{0,1}. Both players learn about DDD only by watching the price. The paper's headline results are that the game has a value, that the value is globally C1C^1C1, and that under explicit conditions on the parameters the game has a Nash equilibrium in pure strategies given by entry times into the two players' stopping regions. This mission formalizes the equilibrium result for the case k>0k>0k>0.

Timeline. Kifer (2000) introduced game options. Ekström and Villeneuve (AAP 2006) proved existence of the value for one-dimensional diffusions without uniform integrability and analysed the perpetual call with y=0y=0y=0. Ekström and Peskir (SICON 2008) proved existence of the value and of Nash equilibria for Markov processes under uniform integrability. Yam, Yung and Zhou (Game call options revisited, Mathematical Finance, 2012) treated the perpetual call with a known dividend (y=1y=1y=1). De Angelis, Gensbittel and Villeneuve (2017–2019) treated the case with an unknown dividend, y∈(0,1)y\in(0,1)y∈(0,1).

Setting

Fix a discount rate r>0r>0r>0, a dividend jump δ0>0\delta_0>0δ0​>0, a volatility σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, a strike K>0K>0K>0 and a penalty ε0>0\varepsilon_0>0ε0​>0, and set G1(x)=(x−K)+G_1(x)=(x-K)^+G1​(x)=(x−K)+ and G2(x)=(x−K)++ε0G_2(x)=(x-K)^++\varepsilon_0G2​(x)=(x−K)++ε0​. On a probability space carrying a Brownian motion BBB and an independent random variable D∈{0,1}D\in\{0,1\}D∈{0,1} with P(D=1)=y\mathbb P(D=1)=yP(D=1)=y, the asset is

Stx=xexp⁡(σBt+(r−δ0D)t−tσ22).S^x_t=x\exp\Big(\sigma B_t+(r-\delta_0D)t-\tfrac{t\sigma^2}{2}\Big).Stx​=xexp(σBt​+(r−δ0​D)t−2tσ2​).

The players observe only SSS: their stopping times are stopping times of F‾S\overline{\mathcal F}^SFS, the filtration generated by SSS and augmented by the null sets, with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. For such τ\tauτ (buyer) and γ\gammaγ (seller) the expected payoff is

Mx,y(τ,γ)=E[e−rτG1(Sτ)1{τ≤γ}+e−rγG2(Sγ)1{γ<τ}],M_{x,y}(\tau,\gamma)=\mathbb E\big[e^{-r\tau}G_1(S_\tau)\mathbf 1_{\{\tau\le\gamma\}}+e^{-r\gamma}G_2(S_\gamma)\mathbf 1_{\{\gamma<\tau\}}\big],Mx,y​(τ,γ)=E[e−rτG1​(Sτ​)1{τ≤γ}​+e−rγG2​(Sγ​)1{γ<τ}​],

with payoff 000 on {τ∧γ=∞}\{\tau\wedge\gamma=\infty\}{τ∧γ=∞}. The upper value is V‾=inf⁡γsup⁡τM\overline V=\inf_\gamma\sup_\tau MV=infγ​supτ​M and the lower value V‾=sup⁡τinf⁡γM\underline V=\sup_\tau\inf_\gamma MV​=supτ​infγ​M. A saddle point is a pair (τ∗,γ∗)(\tau_*,\gamma_*)(τ∗​,γ∗​) with M(τ,γ∗)≤M(τ∗,γ∗)≤M(τ∗,γ)M(\tau,\gamma_*)\le M(\tau_*,\gamma_*)\le M(\tau_*,\gamma)M(τ,γ∗​)≤M(τ∗​,γ∗​)≤M(τ∗​,γ) for all τ,γ\tau,\gammaτ,γ.

The filter Yt=E[D∣F‾tS]Y_t=\mathbb E[D\mid\overline{\mathcal F}^S_t]Yt​=E[D∣FtS​] is the players' posterior belief that a dividend is paid; it has the closed form Yt=yℓt/(yℓt+1−y)Y_t=y\ell_t/(y\ell_t+1-y)Yt​=yℓt​/(yℓt​+1−y) with ℓt\ell_tℓt​ the likelihood ratio of the observed path. The pair (X,Y)=(S,Y)(X,Y)=(S,Y)(X,Y)=(S,Y) is Markov. With V=V‾V=\overline VV=V the value, the stopping regions are S1={V=G1}\mathcal S_1=\{V=G_1\}S1​={V=G1​} (buyer) and S2={V=G2}\mathcal S_2=\{V=G_2\}S2​={V=G2​} (seller), and the entry times are

τ∗=inf⁡{t≥0∣V(Xt,Yt)≤G1(Xt)},γ∗=inf⁡{t≥0∣G2(Xt)≤V(Xt,Yt)}.\tau_*=\inf\{t\ge0\mid V(X_t,Y_t)\le G_1(X_t)\},\qquad\gamma_*=\inf\{t\ge0\mid G_2(X_t)\le V(X_t,Y_t)\}.τ∗​=inf{t≥0∣V(Xt​,Yt​)≤G1​(Xt​)},γ∗​=inf{t≥0∣G2​(Xt​)≤V(Xt​,Yt​)}.

Finally k:=r−σ2/2−δ0/2k:=r-\sigma^2/2-\delta_0/2k:=r−σ2/2−δ0​/2. In the coordinates Zt=ln⁡Xt+σ2δ0ln⁡Yt1−YtZ_t=\ln X_t+\frac{\sigma^2}{\delta_0}\ln\frac{Y_t}{1-Y_t}Zt​=lnXt​+δ0​σ2​ln1−Yt​Yt​​ one has Zt=Z0+ktZ_t=Z_0+ktZt​=Z0​+kt, so the sign of kkk decides whether this time-like variable increases or decreases.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7.3 (p. 26)

Under Assumption 7.1, σ2/δ0>1\sigma^2/\delta_0>1σ2/δ0​>1, and k>0k>0k>0: for every x>0x>0x>0 and y∈(0,1)y\in(0,1)y∈(0,1),

τ∗,γ∗∈TSandMx,y(τ,γ∗)≤Mx,y(τ∗,γ∗)≤Mx,y(τ∗,γ)∀ τ,γ∈TS.\tau_*,\gamma_*\in\mathcal T^S\quad\text{and}\quad M_{x,y}(\tau,\gamma_*)\le M_{x,y}(\tau_*,\gamma_*)\le M_{x,y}(\tau_*,\gamma)\quad\forall\,\tau,\gamma\in\mathcal T^S.τ∗​,γ∗​∈TSandMx,y​(τ,γ∗​)≤Mx,y​(τ∗​,γ∗​)≤Mx,y​(τ∗​,γ)∀τ,γ∈TS.

The goal asserts the shape of the equilibrium (entry times into the model's own stopping regions), with no constant to be improved.

Milestones

In attack order: the filter identity (§2, p. 5); the regularity of V‾,V‾\overline V,\underline VV,V​ (Lemma 3.1); the value, the seller's optimality, and the super- and submartingale properties (Theorem 3.2); positivity of VVV (Remarks 3.3); the location of the stopping regions (Proposition 4.1, Lemma 4.2 (i), (iii)); the boundaries b1,b2b_1,b_2b1​,b2​ (Corollary 4.5) and finiteness of b1b_1b1​ (Lemma 4.6); the parabolic change of coordinates (5.1)–(5.4); connectedness of the regions in parabolic coordinates (Lemmas 5.2, 5.4); the boundary c1c_1c1​ of S1′\mathcal S'_1S1′​ (Corollary 5.5, (5.20)); and positivity of c1c_1c1​ (Lemma 7.2).

Significance

The result. Existence of the value does not give an equilibrium: without uniform integrability the buyer's natural candidate τ∗\tau_*τ∗​ may fail to be optimal, and in the complete-information case y=0y=0y=0 the pair (τ∗,γ∗)(\tau_*,\gamma_*)(τ∗​,γ∗​) is indeed not a saddle point (Proposition C.1). Proposition 7.3 shows that partial information about the dividend restores a pure-strategy equilibrium when k>0k>0k>0, and identifies it: each player stops on entering their own stopping region, which is described by monotone free boundaries. This makes the option's hedging and cancellation policies explicit.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; nothing of it is machine-checked. The mission provides a Lean model of a continuous-time game with an unobservable parameter, built from Mathlib's Brownian motion, stopping times and martingales, and a decomposition of the proof into the paper's own lemmas. The theory the proofs use (optimal stopping games for Markov processes, Itô's formula, Girsanov's theorem) is largely absent from Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the buyer's side. The seller's optimality comes with the value (Theorem 3.2); for the buyer one needs V(x,y)≤M(τ∗,γ)V(x,y)\le M(\tau_*,\gamma)V(x,y)≤M(τ∗​,γ) for every γ\gammaγ, i.e. that the submartingale e−r(t∧τ∗)Ve^{-r(t\wedge\tau_*)}Ve−r(t∧τ∗​)V can be sampled at τ∗∧γ\tau_*\wedge\gammaτ∗​∧γ. The payoffs are not uniformly integrable (Esup⁡te−rtGi(St)=+∞\mathbb E\sup_t e^{-rt}G_i(S_t)=+\inftyEsupt​e−rtGi​(St​)=+∞), so optional sampling cannot be applied directly and the term E[e−rtV(Xt,Yt)1{t≤τ∗∧γ}]\mathbb E[e^{-rt}V(X_t,Y_t)\mathbf 1_{\{t\le\tau_*\wedge\gamma\}}]E[e−rtV(Xt​,Yt​)1{t≤τ∗​∧γ}​] must be shown to vanish. That requires a pathwise bound on the price before τ∗\tau_*τ∗​, which in turn needs the geometry of S1\mathcal S_1S1​ in both coordinate systems, monotonicity of ZZZ (k>0k>0k>0), and strict positivity of the boundary c1c_1c1​ (Lemma 7.2, which needs σ2/δ0>1\sigma^2/\delta_0>1σ2/δ0​>1). Theorem 3.2 itself rests on the Ekström–Peskir theory of Markovian Dynkin games applied to a degenerate two-dimensional diffusion.

Formalization scope

  • Model. The paper's working process (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) solves an SDE ((2.3)); Mathlib has no stochastic integral. The mission therefore states everything on the paper's original space (§2): X:=SX:=SX:=S as the explicit geometric Brownian motion (2.1), and YYY the closed-form Bayes filter, which has the same law as the paper's pair (p. 6). The item filter_condexp ties YYY to E[D∣F‾tS]\mathbb E[D\mid\overline{\mathcal F}^S_t]E[D∣FtS​] and records its observation measurability and continuous paths, while eq_5_3 ties the encoding to the paper's coordinates (Z,Y)(Z,Y)(Z,Y).
  • Probability space. A Setting carries a measure P\mathbb PP, a Brownian motion BBB with all paths continuous (a continuous modification), and UUU uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1] independent of BBB; then Dy=1{U<y}D^y=\mathbf 1\{U<y\}Dy=1{U<y} realises every prior yyy on one space, so V(x′,y′)V(x',y')V(x′,y′) is defined at every state.
  • Information. The ambient probability measure is complete. Thus F‾tS\overline{\mathcal F}^S_tFtS​ is generated by (Ss)s≤t(S_s)_{s\le t}(Ss​)s≤t​ and all its null sets; it depends on (x,y)(x,y)(x,y). Stopping times take values in WithTop ℝ≥0, so infinite stopping times are allowed.
  • Payoff and values. MMM is a Lebesgue integral (lintegral) in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with payoff 000 on {τ∧γ=∞}\{\tau\wedge\gamma=\infty\}{τ∧γ=∞}; V‾,V‾∈[0,∞]\overline V,\underline V\in[0,\infty]V,V​∈[0,∞], and V:=V‾V:=\overline VV:=V as a real number (finite since V‾≤G2(x)\overline V\le G_2(x)V≤G2​(x)).
  • Entry times are Mathlib's hittingAfter … 0 into {G2≤V}\{G_2\le V\}{G2​≤V} and {V≤G1}\{V\le G_1\}{V≤G1​}, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ if never reached.
  • Boundaries. b1,b2b_1,b_2b1​,b2​ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with inf⁡∅=+∞\inf\emptyset=+\inftyinf∅=+∞, sup⁡∅=0\sup\emptyset=0sup∅=0. c1(z)=sup⁡({0}∪{y∈(0,1)∣(z,y)∈S1′})c_1(z)=\sup(\{0\}\cup\{y\in(0,1)\mid(z,y)\in\mathcal S'_1\})c1​(z)=sup({0}∪{y∈(0,1)∣(z,y)∈S1′​}) is an explicit choice of the boundary whose existence Corollary 5.5 asserts.
  • Domains and readings. The goal is posed for x>0x>0x>0, y∈(0,1)y\in(0,1)y∈(0,1), which the proof needs; it is false at y=0y=0y=0. Remarks 3.3 is posed for x>0x>0x>0 (V(0,y)=0V(0,y)=0V(0,y)=0). For the same reason the stopping regions and the boundaries b1,b2b_1,b_2b1​,b2​ live on (0,∞)×[0,1](0,\infty)\times[0,1](0,∞)×[0,1]: at the degenerate price x=0x=0x=0 one has V(0,y)=0=G1(0)V(0,y)=0=G_1(0)V(0,y)=0=G1​(0), and the page's literal x∈[0,∞)x\in[0,\infty)x∈[0,∞) in (4.2) and (4.11) would give b1≡0b_1\equiv0b1​≡0. Lemma 3.1 (iii)'s "a given constant CCC" is read as an existential constant. The standing assumption k≠0k\neq0k=0 of §5 is a hypothesis of Lemmas 5.2, 5.4, Corollary 5.5 and Lemma 7.2. Only clause (5.20) of Corollary 5.5 is formalized. Proposition 4.1 uses the explicit forms of A1,A2A_1,A_2A1​,A2​ printed on p. 9.
  • No trivialization. The filtration is that of the price, never one containing DDD (with DDD observed the game is the complete-information one, where the result fails); YYY is the posterior, not the prior; VVV in the entry times is the game's own value, never a free function; stopping times include infinite ones; and the payoff is not a Bochner integral, which would silently be 000 for non-integrable payoffs.
  • Not formalized. Proposition 6.4 (C1C^1C1 regularity), Proposition 7.6 (the case k<0k<0k<0), Proposition 5.6 and Lemmas 4.3, 4.4, 4.7 are not used by the goal's proof.
  • Infrastructure needed. Optional sampling for continuous-time super/submartingales with unbounded stopping times; hitting times of closed sets by continuous processes as stopping times of an augmented filtration; filtering for Brownian motion with a two-point drift; Itô's formula and Girsanov's theorem for the lemmas of §4–§7; existence of the value for Markovian Dynkin games. Each is reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. De Angelis, F. Gensbittel, S. Villeneuve, A Dynkin Game on Assets with Incomplete Information on the Return, arXiv:1705.07352v4, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07352v4
  • Y. Kifer, Game options, Finance and Stochastics 4(4), 443–463, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00013527
  • E. Ekström, S. Villeneuve, On the value of optimal stopping games, The Annals of Applied Probability 16, 1576–1596, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000204
  • E. Ekström, G. Peskir, Optimal stopping games for Markov processes, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 47, 684–702, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/060673916
  • S. C. P. Yam, S. P. Yung, W. Zhou, Game call options revisited, Mathematical Finance, 2012.
  • R. S. Liptser, A. N. Shiryaev, Statistics of Random Processes I: General Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2001.
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