A Soft Robust Model for Optimization Under Ambiguity: For Every δ > 0, Soft Robust Feasibility Is a Convex Risk Measure Constraint, and Every Normalized Convex Risk Measure Arises This WayResearch Paper
Motivation
Optimization under uncertainty usually fixes one probability distribution for the uncertain data and optimizes an expected payoff, or fixes a set of distributions and protects against the worst one (robust optimization). The first is sensitive to a misspecified ; the second can be very conservative, because it treats a barely plausible distribution exactly like the nominal one. Ben-Tal, Bertsimas and Brown (Oper. Res. 58(4), 2010) propose a graded alternative, the soft robust model: the decision maker accepts a loss of at most in expected payoff under every distribution of a set , simultaneously for all levels up to a budget . Larger sets of distributions are allowed a larger shortfall.
The paper's central result, Theorem 2.1, shows that this model is exactly a constraint on a convex risk measure in the sense of Föllmer and Schied (Finance Stoch. 6, 2002), and that every normalized convex risk measure arises from some soft robust model. This connects distributionally robust optimization with the theory of monetary risk measures, and gives a tractable convex reformulation of soft robust constraints. Related earlier work connected coherent risk measures with standard robust optimization (Bertsimas and Brown, Oper. Res. 57(6), 2009).
Setting
Let be a measurable space and the set of all probability measures on it. A decision ranges over a nonempty, closed, convex set ; a random variable carries the uncertain parameters, and is the payoff, concave in for every . For each the random variable is assumed bounded and measurable.
A family of measures is . It is nondecreasing if for , and convex if implies for . The standing assumptions are that is nondecreasing and convex and that . The soft robust feasible set at level is
A risk measure, on the space of bounded payoffs, is a map with and for ; it is convex if . It is generated by a convex penalty if , and normalized if in addition for some . A family and a penalty determine each other:
and denotes the risk measure generated by .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.1 for
For every nondecreasing, convex family with , is a convex risk measure generated by the normalized convex penalty , the minimum below is attained for every , and
Conversely, for every convex risk measure generated by a normalized convex penalty , the family is nondecreasing and convex with , and (6) holds with on the right and on the left.
Milestones: the steps of the proof (p. 1224)
- The soft robust infimum equals .
- Strong duality with an attained multiplier: that infimum equals .
- The scaling identity .
- is a convex risk measure generated by the convex, normalized penalty .
- For a convex normalized , is nondecreasing and convex with .
- .
Significance
Theorem 2.1 makes the soft robust constraint usable: the right side of (6) is a single constraint in , and the function is jointly convex in for , so soft robust problems are convex programs whenever the risk measure can be evaluated. Read in the other direction, it gives every normalized convex risk measure an interpretation as a graded robustness requirement over the level sets of its penalty, which is how the paper derives soft robust counterparts of optimized certainty equivalents, CVaR and entropic risk, and its later bounds on the probability of a loss.
The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a Lean development of convex risk measures generated by penalties on an arbitrary measurable space, with extended-valued penalties and mixtures of probability measures, and a one-constraint Lagrange duality theorem over a convex set of probability measures. Mathlib does not currently provide Lagrange duality in this form.
Difficulty
The equalities of the proof read as routine, and two of them are not. The first equality is described as "the definition of ", but a measure with need not belong to , because the infimum defining need not be attained; the equality relies on the convexity of the family, the nonemptiness of and the boundedness of . The second equality is Lagrange duality with dual attainment for a convex program whose variable is a probability measure and whose objective and constraint are extended-valued; the classical theorem applies to convex subsets of vector spaces, and transferring it to mixtures of probability measures with -valued penalties is the main formal work. Attainment of the minimum in (6), which the paper asserts by writing "min", is exactly dual attainment and does not follow from the inequality alone.
Formalization scope
The probability measures are ProbabilityMeasure Ω on a measurable space; a family is a map from levels to sets of probability measures, and mixtures are built from the measures . Penalties, including , take values in , so that a measure in no has penalty ; a real-valued would give such measures penalty through the junk value of an empty infimum, and is excluded. Risk measures are real functions whose axioms are imposed on bounded measurable payoffs, "generated by" includes the least-upper-bound property of the supremum, and "min" in (6) is attainment on together with a nonpositive minimum. The decision set and payoff carry the paper's assumptions; concavity of the payoff and closedness and convexity of are kept although Theorem 2.1 does not use them. Infima over measures in the milestones are taken in the extended reals.
The case is excluded. The paper states Theorem 2.1 for , but at its proof interchanges a limit in with a supremum over measures without justification, and (6) fails: on with the measures giving mass at most and those giving it mass at most for , the payoff , is soft robust at level while the right side of (6) is empty. The goal and the milestones therefore fix , the case the paper's main argument treats.
A complete development needs: convex risk measures and their generation by penalties, mixtures of probability measures, Lagrange duality with Slater's condition over convex sets of measures, and the scaling identity for . The duality theorem and the risk-measure layer are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone are welcome, as are general convex-duality lemmas that the strong-duality step can import.
Selected references
- A. Ben-Tal, D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, A Soft Robust Model for Optimization Under Ambiguity, Operations Research 58(4, Part 2):1220–1234, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0821
- H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Convex measures of risk and trading constraints, Finance and Stochastics 6(4):429–447, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007800200072
- H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time, 2nd ed., de Gruyter, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110212075
- D. G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, Wiley, 1969, Chapter 8.
- D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization, Operations Research 57(6):1483–1495, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0695