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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results 6: The Expected Maximum Discrepancy Lies Between R_n(F)/2 − 2√(2/n) and R_n(F) + 4√(2/n)Research Paper

Motivation

Data-dependent risk bounds in statistical learning theory control the gap between the expected loss of a learned function and its empirical loss by a complexity penalty that is computed from the training data. The first such penalties were the maximum discrepancy of a function class (Bartlett, Boucheron and Lugosi, Model selection and error estimation, Machine Learning 48, 2002) and its Rademacher complexity (Koltchinskii, Rademacher penalties and structural risk minimization, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 47, 2001; Koltchinskii and Panchenko 2000). The maximum discrepancy compares the behaviour of the class on two fixed halves of the sample; the Rademacher complexity compares it on two random halves. Bartlett and Mendelson (JMLR 3, 2002), Lemma 3, show that these two quantities are equivalent up to a factor 2 and an additive O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt n)O(1/n​). This mission formalizes that lemma from the published JMLR article (pp. 463–482); the proof is its Appendix A.

Setting

Let μ\muμ be a probability measure on a measurable space X\mathcal XX and let X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be independent samples from μ\muμ. Let FFF be a class of measurable functions f:X→[−1,1]f:\mathcal X\to[-1,1]f:X→[−1,1]. Let σ1,…,σn\sigma_1,\dots,\sigma_nσ1​,…,σn​ be independent uniform {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}-valued random variables, independent of the sample.

The Rademacher complexity of FFF is

Rn(F)=Esup⁡f∈F∣2n∑i=1nσif(Xi)∣.R_n(F) = \mathbf E\sup_{f\in F}\left|\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^n\sigma_i f(X_i)\right|.Rn​(F)=Ef∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n​σi​f(Xi​)​.

For even nnn, the maximum discrepancy of FFF is the random variable

D^n(F)=sup⁡f∈F(2n∑i=1n/2f(Xi)−2n∑i=n/2+1nf(Xi)),\hat D_n(F) = \sup_{f\in F}\left(\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^{n/2}f(X_i) - \frac2n\sum_{i=n/2+1}^n f(X_i)\right),D^n​(F)=f∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n/2​f(Xi​)−n2​i=n/2+1∑n​f(Xi​)​,

with no absolute value, and the expected maximum discrepancy is Dn(F)=ED^n(F)D_n(F)=\mathbf E\hat D_n(F)Dn​(F)=ED^n​(F). The class is closed under negation if f∈Ff\in Ff∈F implies −f∈F-f\in F−f∈F, and −F={−f:f∈F}-F=\{-f:f\in F\}−F={−f:f∈F}.

The proof works with the conditional supremum function

s(N)=2n E[sup⁡f∈F∑i=1nσif(Xi)  |  ∑i=1nσi=N],s(N) = \frac2n\,\mathbf E\left[\sup_{f\in F}\sum_{i=1}^n\sigma_i f(X_i)\;\middle|\;\sum_{i=1}^n\sigma_i=N\right],s(N)=n2​E[f∈Fsup​i=1∑n​σi​f(Xi​)​i=1∑n​σi​=N],

defined for the values NNN that ∑iσi\sum_i\sigma_i∑i​σi​ can take.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3, first and second displays

For every even n≥2n\ge2n≥2,

Rn(F)2−22n≤Dn(F)≤Rn(F)+42n,\frac{R_n(F)}{2} - 2\sqrt{\frac2n} \le D_n(F) \le R_n(F) + 4\sqrt{\frac2n},2Rn​(F)​−2n2​​≤Dn​(F)≤Rn​(F)+4n2​​,

and if FFF is closed under negation,

Rn(F)−42n≤Dn(F).R_n(F) - 4\sqrt{\frac2n} \le D_n(F).Rn​(F)−4n2​​≤Dn​(F).

Milestones (Appendix A, pp. 479–480)

  1. Rn(F)≥E s(∑iσi)R_n(F)\ge\mathbf E\,s(\sum_i\sigma_i)Rn​(F)≥Es(∑i​σi​), with equality when FFF is closed under negation.
  2. Dn(F)=s(0)D_n(F) = s(0)Dn​(F)=s(0).
  3. ∣s(N1)−s(N2)∣≤4∣N2−N1∣/n|s(N_1)-s(N_2)|\le 4|N_2-N_1|/n∣s(N1​)−s(N2​)∣≤4∣N2​−N1​∣/n.
  4. ∣Es(N)−s(EN)∣≤E∣s(N)−s(EN)∣≤42/n|\mathbf E s(N)-s(\mathbf EN)|\le\mathbf E|s(N)-s(\mathbf EN)|\le4\sqrt{2/n}∣Es(N)−s(EN)∣≤E∣s(N)−s(EN)∣≤42/n​ for N=∑iσiN=\sum_i\sigma_iN=∑i​σi​.
  5. Rn(F)=Rn(F∪−F)≤Dn(F∪−F)+42/nR_n(F)=R_n(F\cup-F)\le D_n(F\cup-F)+4\sqrt{2/n}Rn​(F)=Rn​(F∪−F)≤Dn​(F∪−F)+42/n​.
  6. Dn(F∪−F)≤2Dn(F)+Dn({f0,−f0})D_n(F\cup-F)\le 2D_n(F)+D_n(\{f_0,-f_0\})Dn​(F∪−F)≤2Dn​(F)+Dn​({f0​,−f0​}) for any f0∈Ff_0\in Ff0​∈F (a corrected form of the printed step, see below).

Significance

Lemma 3 makes the maximum discrepancy and the Rademacher complexity interchangeable in risk bounds: a bound in terms of one gives a bound in terms of the other with an explicit additive loss. The maximum discrepancy can be computed by a single empirical risk minimization on a relabelled sample, while the Rademacher complexity has the structural properties (monotonicity, convex-hull invariance, contraction) that make it easy to bound for concrete classes; the lemma transfers the second kind of estimate to the first quantity.

The lemma is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it, or of the comparison between fixed and random half-sample splits, is known to exist. Formalizing it requires the exchangeability argument for i.i.d. samples, the conditioning of a uniform sign vector on its sum, and a moment bound for the Rademacher sum ∑iσi\sum_i\sigma_i∑i​σi​, all with explicit constants.

Difficulty

The heart of the proof is that, conditioned on the number of positive signs, a uniform sign vector splits the i.i.d. sample into two random subsets of fixed sizes, and every split of the same sizes has the same law as the fixed split. Making this precise requires a permutation-invariance argument for product measures applied to a supremum over an arbitrary class, where measurability is not automatic. The step from classes closed under negation to general classes is where the printed argument is loose: since D^n\hat D_nD^n​ has no absolute value, D^n(F∪−F)\hat D_n(F\cup-F)D^n​(F∪−F) is a maximum of two suprema that may be negative, and the naive bound Dn(F∪−F)≤2Dn(F)D_n(F\cup-F)\le2D_n(F)Dn​(F∪−F)≤2Dn​(F) fails.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace RadGauss.Discrepancy. Sign vectors are Fin n → Bool (true ↦ 1, false ↦ -1) and expectations over signs are finite averages over all 2n2^n2n sign vectors; s(N)s(N)s(N) is the average over the sign vectors with sum NNN. RnR_nRn​ takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (a lower Lebesgue integral of an [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued supremum), while D^n\hat D_nD^n​, DnD_nDn​ and sss are real, because the maximum discrepancy is signed. Inequalities of the form a−c≤Da-c\le Da−c≤D are written a≤D+ca\le D+ca≤D+c with real terms embedded by ENNReal.ofReal; this is equivalent to the printed form since Dn(F)≥0D_n(F)\ge0Dn​(F)≥0 for nonempty FFF.

Hypotheses added to the page, all disclosed in each item:

  • the sample size is even, n=2mn=2mn=2m with m≥1m\ge1m≥1, since D^n\hat D_nD^n​ needs half sums;
  • FFF is nonempty (the supremum over the empty class is −∞-\infty−∞ in the paper and 000 in Lean);
  • every f∈Ff\in Ff∈F is measurable, and for every sign vector σ\sigmaσ the map x↦sup⁡f∈F∑iσif(xi)x\mapsto\sup_{f\in F}\sum_i\sigma_if(x_i)x↦supf∈F​∑i​σi​f(xi​) is measurable. This is the measurability guard: without it the Bochner integrals defining DnD_nDn​ and sss would silently be 000.

Corrections of printed statements:

  • The Lipschitz bound on sss is printed for 0≤n2<n1≤n0\le n_2<n_1\le n0≤n2​<n1​≤n but used for negative values of ∑iσi\sum_i\sigma_i∑i​σi​; it is stated for every pair of attainable values.
  • The printed step Dn(F∪−F)≤2Dn(F)D_n(F\cup-F)\le2D_n(F)Dn​(F∪−F)≤2Dn​(F) is false for the signed D^n\hat D_nD^n​ of p. 464 (F={f}F=\{f\}F={f}, f(X)f(X)f(X) uniform on {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}, n=2n=2n=2 gives 1≤01\le01≤0); the milestone states it with the additional term Dn({f0,−f0})≤2/nD_n(\{f_0,-f_0\})\le2/\sqrt nDn​({f0​,−f0​})≤2/n​. The goal itself remains true.
  • The third display of Lemma 3, P{∣D^n(F)−Dn(F)∣≥ϵ}≤2exp⁡(−ϵ2n/2)P\{|\hat D_n(F)-D_n(F)|\ge\epsilon\}\le2\exp(-\epsilon^2n/2)P{∣D^n​(F)−Dn​(F)∣≥ϵ}≤2exp(−ϵ2n/2), is false as printed (F={f}F=\{f\}F={f} as above, n=2n=2n=2, ϵ=2\epsilon=2ϵ=2: the probability is 1/2>2e−41/2>2e^{-4}1/2>2e−4) and is not part of the mission.

A formalization in which DnD_nDn​ or sss is a junk value (non-integrable or non-measurable suprema, an empty class, an odd sample size with truncated n/2n/2n/2) would make the goal trivial or meaningless; the hypotheses above rule that out, and the class F={0}F=\{0\}F={0} satisfies all of them.

Welcome contributions include general lemmas on the invariance of Esup⁡f∈FΦf(Xπ(1),…,Xπ(n))\mathbf E\sup_{f\in F}\Phi_f(X_{\pi(1)},\dots,X_{\pi(n)})Esupf∈F​Φf​(Xπ(1)​,…,Xπ(n)​) under permutations π\piπ of an i.i.d. sample, conditioning of uniform sign vectors on their sum, and the bound E∣∑iσi∣≤n\mathbf E|\sum_i\sigma_i|\le\sqrt nE∣∑i​σi​∣≤n​. These are reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2002) 463–482. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/bartlett02a.html
  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, Model selection and error estimation, Machine Learning 48 (2002) 85–113. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013999503812
  • V. Koltchinskii, Rademacher penalties and structural risk minimization, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 47 (2001) 1902–1914. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.930926
  • L. Devroye, L. Györfi, G. Lugosi, A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0711-5
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results 5: Kernel Expansions with α′Kα ≤ B² Have Rademacher and Gaussian Complexity at Most 2B√(E k(X,X)/n)Research Paper

Motivation

Kernel methods, such as support vector machines, predict with functions of the form x↦∑iαik(x,xi)x \mapsto \sum_i \alpha_i k(x, x_i)x↦∑i​αi​k(x,xi​): finite expansions of a fixed similarity function kkk centred at data points. Their statistical behaviour is governed by the size of the class of such expansions that the method searches. Bartlett and Mendelson, in Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results (JMLR 3, 2002), develop risk bounds in terms of the Rademacher and Gaussian complexities of a class, and in §4.3 (pp. 476–478) compute these complexities for the class of kernel expansions whose coefficient vector has quadratic form α′Kα≤B2\alpha' K \alpha \le B^2α′Kα≤B2. The resulting bound depends on the kernel only through its diagonal k(x,x)k(x,x)k(x,x), which is what makes margin bounds for support vector machines dimension-free. This mission formalizes that computation. The source is the published JMLR article (pages cited by the journal's printed numbers).

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a compact topological space. A kernel is a continuous function k:X×X→Rk : \mathcal X \times \mathcal X \to \mathbb Rk:X×X→R such that for every mmm and all x1,…,xm∈Xx_1, \dots, x_m \in \mathcal Xx1​,…,xm​∈X the Gram matrix Kij=k(xi,xj)K_{ij} = k(x_i, x_j)Kij​=k(xi​,xj​) is symmetric and positive semidefinite. For B≥0B \ge 0B≥0 the class of kernel expansions is

F={x↦∑i=1mαik(x,xi):m∈N, xi∈X, αi∈R, ∑i,jαiαjk(xi,xj)≤B2},F = \Big\{x \mapsto \sum_{i=1}^m \alpha_i k(x, x_i) : m \in \mathbb N,\ x_i \in \mathcal X,\ \alpha_i \in \mathbb R,\ \sum_{i,j}\alpha_i\alpha_j k(x_i, x_j) \le B^2\Big\},F={x↦i=1∑m​αi​k(x,xi​):m∈N, xi​∈X, αi​∈R, i,j∑​αi​αj​k(xi​,xj​)≤B2},

with centres anywhere in X\mathcal XX (Lean: kernelClass k B).

For a class FFF of real functions on X\mathcal XX and a sample x1,…,xnx_1, \dots, x_nx1​,…,xn​, let σ1,…,σn\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_nσ1​,…,σn​ be independent uniform signs and g1,…,gng_1, \dots, g_ng1​,…,gn​ independent standard Gaussians. The empirical Rademacher complexity and empirical Gaussian complexity (Definition 2, p. 464) are

R^n(F)=Eσsup⁡f∈F∣2n∑i=1nσif(xi)∣,G^n(F)=Egsup⁡f∈F∣2n∑i=1ngif(xi)∣.\hat R_n(F) = \mathbb E_\sigma \sup_{f\in F}\Big|\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^n \sigma_i f(x_i)\Big|, \qquad \hat G_n(F) = \mathbb E_g \sup_{f\in F}\Big|\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^n g_i f(x_i)\Big|.R^n​(F)=Eσ​f∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n​σi​f(xi​)​,G^n​(F)=Eg​f∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n​gi​f(xi​)​.

For a probability measure μ\muμ on X\mathcal XX and an i.i.d. sample X1,…,Xn∼μX_1, \dots, X_n \sim \muX1​,…,Xn​∼μ, the Rademacher complexity is Rn(F)=ER^n(F)R_n(F) = \mathbb E \hat R_n(F)Rn​(F)=ER^n​(F) and the Gaussian complexity is Gn(F)=EG^n(F)G_n(F) = \mathbb E \hat G_n(F)Gn​(F)=EG^n​(F) (Lean: empiricalRademacher, empiricalGaussian, rademacherComplexity, gaussianComplexity).

A feature map of kkk is a map Φ:X→H\Phi : \mathcal X \to \mathcal HΦ:X→H into a real Hilbert space with k(x1,x2)=⟨Φ(x1),Φ(x2)⟩k(x_1, x_2) = \langle \Phi(x_1), \Phi(x_2) \ranglek(x1​,x2​)=⟨Φ(x1​),Φ(x2​)⟩.

Formalization targets

Goal: the expected complexity bound (§4.3, p. 478, display after the proof of Lemma 22)

With X∼μX \sim \muX∼μ,

Rn(F)≤2BE k(X,X)n,Gn(F)≤2BE k(X,X)n.R_n(F) \le 2B\sqrt{\frac{\mathbb E\, k(X,X)}{n}}, \qquad G_n(F) \le 2B\sqrt{\frac{\mathbb E\, k(X,X)}{n}}.Rn​(F)≤2BnEk(X,X)​​,Gn​(F)≤2BnEk(X,X)​​.

Milestone 1: feature-map inclusion (p. 477)

For any feature map Φ\PhiΦ of kkk, ∥∑iαiΦ(xi)∥2=∑i,jαiαjk(xi,xj)\|\sum_i \alpha_i \Phi(x_i)\|^2 = \sum_{i,j}\alpha_i\alpha_j k(x_i,x_j)∥∑i​αi​Φ(xi​)∥2=∑i,j​αi​αj​k(xi​,xj​), and hence F⊆{x↦⟨w,Φ(x)⟩:∥w∥≤B}F \subseteq \{x \mapsto \langle w, \Phi(x)\rangle : \|w\| \le B\}F⊆{x↦⟨w,Φ(x)⟩:∥w∥≤B}.

Milestone 2: Lemma 22 (p. 477)

For every sample X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​,

G^n(F)≤2Bn∑i=1nk(Xi,Xi),R^n(F)≤2Bn∑i=1nk(Xi,Xi).\hat G_n(F) \le \frac{2B}{n}\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^n k(X_i, X_i)}, \qquad \hat R_n(F) \le \frac{2B}{n}\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^n k(X_i, X_i)}.G^n​(F)≤n2B​i=1∑n​k(Xi​,Xi​)​,R^n​(F)≤n2B​i=1∑n​k(Xi​,Xi​)​.

Significance

The goal shows that the kernel class has complexity of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2, with a constant given by BBB and the quantity E k(X,X)\mathbb E\, k(X,X)Ek(X,X), which is the trace of the integral operator Tkf=∫k(⋅,y)f(y) dμ(y)T_k f = \int k(\cdot, y) f(y)\, d\mu(y)Tk​f=∫k(⋅,y)f(y)dμ(y) on L2(μ)L_2(\mu)L2​(μ). No dimension of the feature space enters. Fed into the paper's margin-cost risk bound (Theorem 21, p. 476), the sample-wise Lemma 22 gives a data-dependent misclassification bound for support vector machines in terms of the trace of the Gram matrix of the training sample. Bounds of this form are the standard complexity estimate for kernel classes in learning theory textbooks.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in this mission is open mathematics. What the mission adds is a machine-checked version with the paper's normalization (factor 2/n2/n2/n, absolute value inside the supremum), covering both the Rademacher and the Gaussian complexity, for expansions with centres anywhere in X\mathcal XX. Related statements on the platform (Mohri et al.'s Theorem 5.10 and Proposition 9.3) use the 1/n1/n1/n normalization without absolute value, assume a uniform bound sup⁡xk(x,x)≤r2\sup_x k(x,x) \le r^2supx​k(x,x)≤r2, and treat only the Rademacher case, so they do not imply the targets here.

Difficulty

The class FFF is defined through the kernel, not through a feature map, and its expansions have arbitrarily many centres anywhere in X\mathcal XX. The supremum over FFF is therefore a supremum over an infinite-dimensional family, and must be controlled without assuming a separate numerical upper bound on k(x,x)k(x,x)k(x,x) or that the feature space is finite dimensional. For the Gaussian complexity the supremum sits inside an expectation over a continuous random vector, and the passage from the sample-wise bound to the expected bound must move an expectation inside a square root in the right direction. A bound with sup⁡xk(x,x)\sup_x k(x,x)supx​k(x,x) in place of E k(X,X)\mathbb E\, k(X,X)Ek(X,X) is weaker and is not the target.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • Complexities take values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞); expectations over the Gaussian vector and over the sample are lower Lebesgue integrals against product measures, and the Rademacher expectation is the exact average over the 2n2^n2n sign vectors σ:Fin n→Z×\sigma : \mathrm{Fin}\,n \to \mathbb Z^\timesσ:Finn→Z×. An unbounded class has complexity +∞+\infty+∞, so a junk value of 000 for a real supremum or a non-integrable expectation cannot make the bounds trivial.
  • A kernel (IsKernel k) carries compactness of X\mathcal XX, joint continuity, and positive semidefiniteness (with symmetry) of every Gram matrix, as in the paper's definition. The goal puts the Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra on X\mathcal XX and assumes μ\muμ is a probability measure; E k(X,X)\mathbb E\, k(X,X)Ek(X,X) is the Bochner integral of the continuous function x↦k(x,x)x \mapsto k(x,x)x↦k(x,x).
  • B≥0B \ge 0B≥0 is assumed in every statement (the paper fixes B>0B > 0B>0). For B<0B < 0B<0 the right-hand sides are negative while the left-hand sides are not, and the inclusion of milestone 1 fails.
  • No n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 hypothesis: at n=0n = 0n=0 both sides of every bound are 000 in Lean.
  • The feature map in milestone 1 is a hypothesis (any real Hilbert space and any Φ\PhiΦ with k=⟨Φ(⋅),Φ(⋅)⟩k = \langle \Phi(\cdot), \Phi(\cdot)\ranglek=⟨Φ(⋅),Φ(⋅)⟩); its existence is the RKHS theorem, referenced as the supporting platform item FoundationsML.Kernels.RKHS_exists.
  • No measurability or integrability hypotheses on R^n(F)\hat R_n(F)R^n​(F) or G^n(F)\hat G_n(F)G^n​(F) are assumed, and none is needed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is stated for the kernel class FFF itself, not for the larger ball of linear functionals of a feature map, and not for the subclass with centres at the sample points.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: Gaussian integration over Rn\mathbb R^nRn (second moments of a standard Gaussian vector), Jensen's inequality for the square root under a lower Lebesgue integral, and Cauchy–Schwarz for positive semidefinite bilinear forms (or the RKHS feature map). The Definition 2 complexities are shared with the paper's other missions and reusable. Contributions of any of these milestones, and of proofs of the goal that avoid the feature map, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett and S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2002), 463–482. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/bartlett02a.html
  • N. Cristianini and J. Shawe-Taylor, An Introduction to Support Vector Machines, Cambridge University Press, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511801389
  • N. Aronszajn, Theory of Reproducing Kernels, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 68 (1950), 337–404. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1950-0051437-7
  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh and A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262039406/
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Graph Structure of Convex Polyhedra in n-Space II: Whitney's Theorem, a Graph Is n-Tuply Connected iff Any Two Points Are Joined by n Disjoint PathsResearch Paper

Motivation

Vertex connectivity measures how robust a network is against the failure of nodes. It can be measured in two ways that look different. One way counts the fewest nodes whose removal disconnects the network. The other counts the routes between two nodes that share no intermediate node. Whitney's theorem (1932) says that the two measures agree for every pair of nodes. It is the vertex form of Menger's theorem, and it underlies reliability analysis of communication and transportation networks, the design of fault-tolerant routing, and much of structural graph theory.

M. L. Balinski's 1961 paper On the graph structure of convex polyhedra in n-space proves that the graph of a bounded full-dimensional polyhedron in nnn-space is nnn-tuply connected (the subject of Mission I of this series). It then invokes Whitney's theorem to conclude that any two vertices of such a polyhedron are joined by nnn disjoint paths. Balinski gives a short new proof of Whitney's theorem through the max-flow min-cut theorem of Ford and Fulkerson and of Dantzig and Fulkerson. That makes the theorem a consequence of linear programming duality. This mission formalizes that part of the paper: the network vocabulary, the max-flow min-cut theorem with capacities on both points and lines, the integrality of maximum flows, and Whitney's theorem itself.

Timeline.

  • 1927: Menger states the disjoint-paths theorem for separating sets.
  • 1932: Whitney proves the characterization of nnn-connected graphs by nnn disjoint paths between every pair of points.
  • 1956: Ford and Fulkerson and Dantzig and Fulkerson prove the max-flow min-cut theorem.
  • 1961: Balinski derives Whitney's theorem from it with a unit-capacity network.

Setting

A graph GGG consists of a finite set VVV of points and a set of lines, each line being a pair of distinct points. A path from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​ is a sequence of lines (p1,p2),(p2,p3),…,(pm,pm+1)(p_1,p_2),(p_2,p_3),\dots,(p_m,p_{m+1})(p1​,p2​),(p2​,p3​),…,(pm​,pm+1​) with p1=psp_1 = p_sp1​=ps​, pm+1=pkp_{m+1} = p_kpm+1​=pk​ and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. Paths are disjoint if they have no point in common except possibly their first and last points.

GGG is nnn-tuply connected if it has at least n+1n+1n+1 points and, for every set XXX of fewer than nnn points, the graph G−XG - XG−X remaining after deleting XXX is connected. GGG has nnn disjoint paths from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​ if there are nnn pairwise distinct paths from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​, none of which repeats a point, and no two of which share a point other than psp_sps​ and pkp_kpk​.

A network is a connected graph with a capacity c(x)≥0c(x) \ge 0c(x)≥0 on every point and c(e)≥0c(e) \ge 0c(e)≥0 on every line, and with a distinguished source psp_sps​ and sink pkp_kpk​. A flow assigns a number f(C)≥0f(C) \ge 0f(C)≥0 to every path CCC from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​, such that for every point xxx and every line eee

∑C∋xf(C)≤c(x),∑C∋ef(C)≤c(e).\sum_{C \ni x} f(C) \le c(x), \qquad \sum_{C \ni e} f(C) \le c(e).C∋x∑​f(C)≤c(x),C∋e∑​f(C)≤c(e).

Its value is val⁡(f)=∑Cf(C)\operatorname{val}(f) = \sum_C f(C)val(f)=∑C​f(C). A disconnecting set is a pair (X,F)(X,F)(X,F) of points and lines that meets every walk from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​. Its value is ∑x∈Xc(x)+∑e∈Fc(e)\sum_{x\in X} c(x) + \sum_{e \in F} c(e)∑x∈X​c(x)+∑e∈F​c(e).

The unit network of the proof has capacity 111 on every point except psp_sps​ and pkp_kpk​, and capacity n+1n+1n+1 on every line except the line pspkp_sp_kps​pk​ (if present), which has capacity 111. In Lean these are IsNTuplyConnected, HasNDisjointPaths, IsFlow, flowValue, IsDisconnecting, cutValue, unitCapV and unitCapE, all in the namespace Balinski61.Whitney.

Formalization targets

Goal: Whitney's theorem (p. 434)

For a finite graph GGG with at least two points and any n≥0n \ge 0n≥0:

G is n-tuply connected  ⟺  for all ps≠pk, G has n disjoint paths from ps to pk.G \text{ is } n\text{-tuply connected} \iff \text{for all } p_s \ne p_k,\ G \text{ has } n \text{ disjoint paths from } p_s \text{ to } p_k.G is n-tuply connected⟺for all ps​=pk​, G has n disjoint paths from ps​ to pk​.

Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Max-flow min-cut (p. 433). In every network there is a number MMM that is the value of some flow and of some disconnecting set, with every flow of value at most MMM and every disconnecting set of value at least MMM.
  2. Integrality (p. 434). If all capacities are integers, some maximum flow has only integer path flows.
  3. Min-cut in the unit network (p. 434). If GGG is nnn-tuply connected and ps≠pkp_s \ne p_kps​=pk​, every disconnecting set of the unit network has value at least nnn.
  4. Paths from unit flows (p. 434). An integral flow of value at least nnn in the unit network yields nnn disjoint paths from psp_sps​ to pkp_kpk​.
  5. Sufficiency (p. 434). If every pair of distinct points is joined by nnn disjoint paths, GGG is nnn-tuply connected.

Significance

Whitney's theorem turns a statement about all small deletion sets into the existence of explicit, verifiable path systems, and back again. In applications it certifies connectivity by exhibiting paths, and it certifies that connectivity is no larger by exhibiting a separating set. It is the base of the theory of kkk-connected graphs: ear decompositions, the fan lemma, and the structure of minimally kkk-connected graphs all use it. Inside this paper it supplies the COROLLARY that any two vertices of a bounded full-dimensional polyhedron in nnn-space are joined by nnn disjoint edge paths.

None of these results is formalized for vertex connectivity at this Mathlib revision. Mathlib has edge connectivity and connected components but no vertex Menger theorem. The Prove2Me library has max-flow min-cut statements for arc capacities only and integrality results for basic solutions of network LPs, but no flow model with capacities on points. A completed development gives a reusable vertex-capacitated max-flow min-cut theorem for undirected graphs and the first machine-checked Whitney theorem in this library. The results are classical and proved; the remaining work is the formalization.

Difficulty

The sufficiency direction is elementary. The necessity direction needs a global object (a flow, or a family of paths) to exist from purely local hypotheses about deletions. The obvious induction on nnn, which deletes a point and applies the hypothesis to a smaller graph, does not keep the path systems disjoint. In Balinski's route the weight falls on max-flow min-cut and integrality for path flows with capacities on points, neither of which exists in the library. A second difficulty sits in a case the paper's proof skips: a disconnecting set of the unit network may use the line pspkp_sp_kps​pk​ (capacity 111) together with up to n−2n-2n−2 points, and the deletion hypothesis of nnn-tuple connectedness speaks only about points.

Formalization scope

Graphs are Mathlib SimpleGraphs on a Fintype with decidable equality and adjacency. Paths are walks with IsPath. A flow is a real function on the finite type G.Path ps pk of simple paths; "through a point" and "through a line" mean membership in the walk's support and edge list. Capacities are functions V → ℝ and Sym2 V → ℝ. Nonnegativity, connectivity of GGG and ps≠pkp_s \ne p_kps​=pk​ are hypotheses of the network theorems.

The following readings of loose phrases are explicit in the statements:

  • "dropping out n−1n-1n−1 or fewer points" is ∣X∣<n|X| < n∣X∣<n;
  • "nnn disjoint paths" means nnn pairwise distinct simple paths. The printed path syntax permits repeated vertices; in a graph with lines psap_s aps​a, psbp_s bps​b, and pspkp_s p_kps​pk​, the distinct walks ps,a,ps,pkp_s,a,p_s,p_kps​,a,ps​,pk​ and ps,b,ps,pkp_s,b,p_s,p_kps​,b,ps​,pk​ share only their endpoints even though the graph is not 222-tuply connected. The theorem therefore uses its conventional simple-path reading;
  • path flows live on simple paths (merging and shortcutting changes no maximum value);
  • the paper leaves the capacities of psp_sps​ and pkp_kpk​ in the unit network unassigned, and here they are n+1n+1n+1;
  • "the condition is sufficient is obvious" is the full statement that nnn-tuple connectedness follows;
  • the hypothesis ∣V∣≥2|V| \ge 2∣V∣≥2 is added to the goal and to sufficiency, because the paper's "any pair of points" presupposes it and the equivalence fails for a one-point graph.

The max-flow min-cut milestone states that the maximum and the minimum are attained. A statement that only bounds some flow by every cut is satisfied by the zero flow. A connectivity notion without the n+1n+1n+1 point count would make every complete graph nnn-connected for all nnn. Both trivializations are excluded.

Contributions welcome: a vertex-capacitated augmenting-path or LP-duality proof of max-flow min-cut for path flows, integrality by an augmenting-path argument, the unit-network lemmas, and direct combinatorial proofs of Whitney's theorem that bypass flows.

Selected references

  • M. L. Balinski, On the graph structure of convex polyhedra in n-space, Pacific J. Math. 11 (1961), 431–434. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1961.11.431
  • H. Whitney, Congruent graphs and the connectivity of graphs, Amer. J. Math. 54 (1932), 150–168. https://doi.org/10.2307/2371086
  • L. R. Ford, Jr. and D. R. Fulkerson, Maximal flow through a network, Canadian J. Math. 8 (1956), 399–404. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1956-045-5
  • G. B. Dantzig and D. R. Fulkerson, On the max-flow min-cut theorem of networks, in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Ann. of Math. Stud. 38, Princeton Univ. Press, 1956, 215–221. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881987
  • K. Menger, Zur allgemeinen Kurventheorie, Fund. Math. 10 (1927), 96–115. https://doi.org/10.4064/fm-10-1-96-115
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Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms I: The Nonparametric Learn-then-Price Policy Has Regret at Most C(log n)^{1/2}/n^{1/4}Research Paper

Why price without knowing demand

A seller with a fixed stock of a single product and a finite selling season has to set prices without knowing how demand responds to them. This is the standard situation in revenue management: airline seats, hotel rooms, fashion goods and event tickets. The classical theory of dynamic pricing (Gallego and van Ryzin, 1994) assumes that the demand function λ(p)\lambda(p)λ(p), the rate of purchase requests at price ppp, is known. In practice it has to be learned from sales, while the season runs and the stock is consumed.

Besbes and Zeevi (2009) asked how much revenue is lost for not knowing λ\lambdaλ. They answered it with explicit policies and matching-order bounds. Their setting differs from the multi-armed bandit literature it borrows from in three ways:

  • the problem is constrained by an initial inventory;
  • the set of prices is a continuum;
  • the set of possible demand functions is a nonparametric class.

This mission formalizes their first main result, Proposition 1: a simple learn-then-price policy has worst-case relative regret of order (log⁡n)1/2n−1/4(\log n)^{1/2}n^{-1/4}(logn)1/2n−1/4 in a market of size nnn.

Setting

Prices. Fix 0<p‾<p‾<∞0<\underline p<\overline p<\infty0<p​<p​<∞ and an off price p∞>0p_\infty>0p∞​>0 outside [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​]. The seller may charge any price in [p‾,p‾]∪{p∞}[\underline p,\overline p]\cup\{p_\infty\}[p​,p​]∪{p∞​}; charging p∞p_\inftyp∞​ stops demand.

Demand. Requests arrive as a Poisson process whose intensity at time ttt is λ(p(t))\lambda(p(t))λ(p(t)). Let NNN be a unit-rate Poisson process. By the time change (1), the cumulative requests up to time ttt under a price path p(⋅)p(\cdot)p(⋅) are N(∫0tλ(p(s)) ds)N\big(\int_0^t\lambda(p(s))\,ds\big)N(∫0t​λ(p(s))ds). The seller starts with inventory xxx and sells until either the horizon TTT ends or the stock runs out. The expected revenue of a policy π\piπ is Jπ(x,T;λ)J^\pi(x,T;\lambda)Jπ(x,T;λ).

Demand class. L=L(M,K‾,K‾,m)\mathcal L=\mathcal L(M,\underline K,\overline K,m)L=L(M,K​,K,m) is the set of regular demand functions satisfying Assumption 1. Regular means:

  • λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 and λ(p∞)=0\lambda(p_\infty)=0λ(p∞​)=0;
  • λ\lambdaλ is non-increasing on [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​], with inverse γ\gammaγ;
  • the revenue rate r(l)=lγ(l)r(l)=l\gamma(l)r(l)=lγ(l) is concave.

Assumption 1 requires:

  • (i) λ≤M\lambda\le Mλ≤M on [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​];
  • (ii) λ\lambdaλ is K‾\overline KK-Lipschitz and γ\gammaγ is K‾−1\underline K^{-1}K​−1-Lipschitz;
  • (iii) max⁡ppλ(p)≥m\max_p p\lambda(p)\ge mmaxp​pλ(p)≥m.

Benchmark. The deterministic relaxation (5) replaces the random demand by its mean:

JD(x,T∣λ)=sup⁡{∫0Tp(s)λ(p(s)) ds:∫0Tλ(p(s)) ds≤x}.J^D(x,T\mid\lambda)=\sup\Big\{\int_0^T p(s)\lambda(p(s))\,ds:\int_0^T\lambda(p(s))\,ds\le x\Big\}.JD(x,T∣λ)=sup{∫0T​p(s)λ(p(s))ds:∫0T​λ(p(s))ds≤x}.

The regret of a policy is Rπ=1−Jπ/JD\mathcal R^\pi=1-J^\pi/J^DRπ=1−Jπ/JD.

Scaling. In a market of size nnn the inventory is nxnxnx and the demand function is nλn\lambdanλ, as in (11). The corresponding quantities are JnπJ^\pi_nJnπ​, JnD=nJDJ^D_n=nJ^DJnD​=nJD and Rnπ\mathcal R^\pi_nRnπ​.

Algorithm 1, π(τ,κ)\pi(\tau,\kappa)π(τ,κ). The policy has three phases.

  1. Learning. On [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ] it tests κ\kappaκ equally spaced prices pi=p‾+(i−1)(p‾−p‾)/κp_i=\underline p+(i-1)(\overline p-\underline p)/\kappapi​=p​+(i−1)(p​−p​)/κ, each for Δ=τ/κ\Delta=\tau/\kappaΔ=τ/κ time units. It estimates λ(pi)\lambda(p_i)λ(pi​) by the normalized request counts λ^(pi)\hat\lambda(p_i)λ^(pi​).
  2. Optimization. It chooses p^u=arg⁡max⁡ipiλ^(pi)\hat p^u=\arg\max_i p_i\hat\lambda(p_i)p^​u=argmaxi​pi​λ^(pi​) and p^c=arg⁡min⁡i∣λ^(pi)−x/T∣\hat p^c=\arg\min_i|\hat\lambda(p_i)-x/T|p^​c=argmini​∣λ^(pi​)−x/T∣, and sets p^=max⁡{p^u,p^c}\hat p=\max\{\hat p^u,\hat p^c\}p^​=max{p^​u,p^​c}.
  3. Pricing. It charges p^\hat pp^​ on (τ,T](\tau,T](τ,T] until the stock runs out.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

Let τn≍n−1/4\tau_n\asymp n^{-1/4}τn​≍n−1/4 and κn≍n1/4\kappa_n\asymp n^{1/4}κn​≍n1/4, and let πn=π(τn,κn)\pi_n=\pi(\tau_n,\kappa_n)πn​=π(τn​,κn​). Then there is a finite constant CCC, independent of λ\lambdaλ and nnn, such that

sup⁡λ∈LRnπ(x,T;λ)≤C(log⁡n)1/2n1/4(n≥2).\sup_{\lambda\in\mathcal L}\mathcal R^{\pi}_n(x,T;\lambda)\le\frac{C(\log n)^{1/2}}{n^{1/4}}\qquad(n\ge2).λ∈Lsup​Rnπ​(x,T;λ)≤n1/4C(logn)1/2​(n≥2).

The constant is left unspecified, as in the paper. Its dependence on the class parameters, xxx and TTT is "somewhat complex" (p. 12), and the order (log⁡n)1/2n−1/4(\log n)^{1/2}n^{-1/4}(logn)1/2n−1/4 is the content of the result.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof in the appendix, in order:

  • the scaling JnD=nJDJ^D_n=nJ^DJnD​=nJD (p. 12);
  • Fact 1, JD≥mmin⁡{T,x/M}J^D\ge m\min\{T,x/M\}JD≥mmin{T,x/M} on L\mathcal LL;
  • Lemma 1, the solution of (5): charge pD=max⁡{pu,pc}p^D=\max\{p^u,p^c\}pD=max{pu,pc} until the stock runs out;
  • Lemma 2, a Poisson deviation bound;
  • the revenue lower bound (A-2);
  • Lemma 3, the learned price is near pDp^DpD with high probability;
  • Lemma 4 and the Case 1 bound (A-11), for λ(p‾)≤x/T\lambda(\overline p)\le x/Tλ(p​)≤x/T;
  • Lemma 5 and the Case 2 bound (A-15), for λ(p‾)>x/T\lambda(\overline p)>x/Tλ(p​)>x/T;
  • the Step 4 bound Rnπ≤C12(un+τn)\mathcal R^\pi_n\le C_{12}(u_n+\tau_n)Rnπ​≤C12​(un​+τn​), where un=(log⁡n)1/2max⁡{1/κn,(nΔn)−1/2}u_n=(\log n)^{1/2}\max\{1/\kappa_n,(n\Delta_n)^{-1/2}\}un​=(logn)1/2max{1/κn​,(nΔn​)−1/2}.

Significance

Proposition 1 shows that a seller who knows only a nonparametric class of demand functions can approach the full-information revenue uniformly over the class. Learning costs a vanishing fraction of revenue, and the policy needs no parametric model. Together with the paper's lower bound of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 for every admissible policy (Proposition 2, not in this mission), it brackets the minimax regret of nonparametric pricing under an inventory constraint. The result is a reference point for the learning-and-earning literature in operations management that followed it.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge, it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires:

  • a working theory of policies driven by a time-changed Poisson process, with sales capped by an inventory;
  • the deterministic relaxation of Gallego and van Ryzin for a continuum of prices with an off price;
  • uniform (over the class) Poisson concentration bounds.

The mission produces Lean statements of all of these. A proof would also check every constant chain of the appendix, where the argument uses some displays in a form slightly different from their printed statement (see the scope section).

Difficulty

The obvious argument controls the estimation error at the tested prices and concludes that p^\hat pp^​ is close to the optimal price. It breaks in two places.

First, pDp^DpD is the larger of two prices, the revenue maximizer and the price that sells the inventory exactly. Near the boundary between these regimes, the revenue rate at p^\hat pp^​ is not controlled by the error in p^\hat pp^​ alone: it needs the concavity of the revenue rate and the inverse Lipschitz bound on γ\gammaγ.

Second, when demand at the highest price exceeds the inventory rate (λ(p‾)>x/T\lambda(\overline p)>x/Tλ(p​)>x/T), the revenue is limited by stock-outs rather than by the price. The bound must then show that nearly all of the inventory is sold during the pricing phase, uniformly over the class.

Throughout, every constant must be independent of the demand function, so the estimates have to hold uniformly over an infinite-dimensional class.

Formalization scope

  • Poisson process. The demand is driven by IsPoissonProcess N 1 on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,\mathbb P)(Ω,P), a published platform definition: ℕ-valued, N(0)=0N(0)=0N(0)=0, monotone paths, independent Poisson increments. The time change (1) is rendered by evaluating NNN at cumulative intensities.
  • Inventory. The inventory of the market of size nnn is ⌊nx⌋\lfloor nx\rfloor⌊nx⌋ units, and sales are min⁡{N(⋅),⌊nx⌋}\min\{N(\cdot),\lfloor nx\rfloor\}min{N(⋅),⌊nx⌋}. The cap is never dropped.
  • Revenue. JnπJ^\pi_nJnπ​ is the Bochner expectation of a bounded, finitely-valued revenue, so it is a genuine integral.
  • Demand functions. A demand function is a map R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R, nonnegative, with λ(p∞)=0\lambda(p_\infty)=0λ(p∞​)=0. Regularity and Assumption 1 are imposed on [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​], and the inverse γ\gammaγ is Function.invFunOn.
  • Benchmark. JDJ^DJD is a supremum over measurable price paths with integrable demand rate. The supremum is genuine: the set of path revenues is nonempty and bounded.
  • Algorithm. The grid excludes p‾\overline pp​, as in the paper. Ties in the grid argmax and argmin go to the smallest index. The estimates compare λ^(pi)\hat\lambda(p_i)λ^(pi​) with x/Tx/Tx/T.
  • Tuning. τn≍n−1/4\tau_n\asymp n^{-1/4}τn​≍n−1/4 and κn≍n1/4\kappa_n\asymp n^{1/4}κn​≍n1/4 are encoded with explicit constants 0<c≤c′0<c\le c'0<c≤c′, with τn∈(0,T]\tau_n\in(0,T]τn​∈(0,T] and κn≥1\kappa_n\ge1κn​≥1. Constants may depend on c,c′c,c'c,c′, the class parameters, the prices, xxx and TTT, but never on λ\lambdaλ or nnn.
  • Range of nnn. Bounds whose right side vanishes at n=1n=1n=1 because log⁡1=0\log1=0log1=0 are stated for n≥2n\ge2n≥2: the goal and (A-15).
  • Typo correction. Lemma 5's event uses nx−C9nunnx-C_9nu_nnx−C9​nun​, as in its proof, not the printed nx−C9unnx-C_9u_nnx−C9​un​.
  • Ruled out. A specific demand curve, a fixed nnn, deterministic demand, a finite price set, a known λ\lambdaλ, constants depending on λ\lambdaλ, or dropping the inventory cap would each make the statement a different and easier theorem. None is used.
  • Not included. The lower bound of Proposition 2 and the second assertion of Lemma 1 (Jπ≤JDJ^\pi\le J^DJπ≤JD for all admissible policies) are not included.

Contributions are welcome at any level: proofs of the milestones (Fact 1, Lemma 1 and Lemma 2 are self-contained), measurability and integrability lemmas for the revenue functional, and a reusable Poisson concentration library built on Mathlib's poissonMeasure.

Selected references

  • O. Besbes and A. Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms, Operations Research 57(6):1407–1420, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0640
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • K. Talluri and G. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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On the Approximability of Single-Machine Scheduling with Precedence Constraints 1: A k-Fold Realizer of Size t Yields a Vertex Cover of Expected Weight at Most (2 − 2/(t/k)) Times OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Single-machine scheduling with precedence constraints, written 1∣prec∣∑wjCj1|\mathrm{prec}|\sum w_jC_j1∣prec∣∑wj​Cj​ in the notation of Graham et al., asks for an order of nnn weighted jobs on one machine that respects a given partial order and minimizes the weighted sum of completion times. The problem is strongly NP-hard (Lawler 1978; Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan 1978), and closing its approximability gap is listed by Schuurman and Woeginger among ten outstanding open problems in scheduling theory. Several 2-approximation algorithms are known (Schulz 1996; Hall et al. 1997; Chudak and Hochbaum 1999; Chekuri and Motwani 1999; Margot et al. 2003).

A line of work by Chudak and Hochbaum, Correa and Schulz, and Ambühl and Mastrolilli showed that the problem is a special case of minimum weighted vertex cover in a graph built from the precedence order. Ambühl, Mastrolilli, Mutsanas and Svensson (Math. Oper. Res. 36(4), 2011) observed that this graph is the graph of incomparable pairs of dimension theory, and used that identification to obtain (2−2/f)(2-2/f)(2−2/f)-approximations for orders of fractional dimension at most fff. This mission formalizes that framework: the identification of the two graphs and the rounding guarantee of the paper's Theorem 5.1.

Setting

An instance SSS consists of a finite set NNN of jobs, a partial order PPP on NNN (reflexive, antisymmetric, transitive; (i,j)∈P(i,j)\in P(i,j)∈P with i≠ji\ne ji=j means job iii finishes before job jjj starts), processing times pj≥0p_j\ge 0pj​≥0 and weights wj≥0w_j\ge 0wj​≥0.

Two jobs x,yx,yx,y are incomparable, x∥yx\parallel yx∥y, when neither (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) nor (y,x)(y,x)(y,x) lies in PPP. The set inc⁡(P)\operatorname{inc}(P)inc(P) of incomparable pairs consists of ordered pairs and is closed under swapping. A linear extension of PPP is a linear order L⊇PL\supseteq PL⊇P on NNN; it reverses (x,y)∈inc⁡(P)(x,y)\in\operatorname{inc}(P)(x,y)∈inc(P) when y<xy<xy<x in LLL. A nonempty multiset L1,…,LtL_1,\dots,L_tL1​,…,Lt​ of linear extensions is a k:tk:tk:t-realizer if every incomparable pair is reversed by at least kkk of them. The fractional dimension fdim⁡(P)\operatorname{fdim}(P)fdim(P) is the least ratio t/kt/kt/k over all k:tk:tk:t-realizers.

The vertex cover graph GPSG^S_PGPS​ has the incomparable pairs as nodes; nodes (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) and (k,ℓ)(k,\ell)(k,ℓ) are adjacent if j=kj=kj=k and i=ℓi=\elli=ℓ, or j=kj=kj=k and (i,ℓ)∈P(i,\ell)\in P(i,ℓ)∈P, or (i,ℓ),(k,j)∈P(i,\ell),(k,j)\in P(i,ℓ),(k,j)∈P (symmetrically closed). Node (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) has weight w(i,j)=piwjw_{(i,j)}=p_iw_jw(i,j)​=pi​wj​, and w(C)=∑u∈Cwuw(C)=\sum_{u\in C}w_uw(C)=∑u∈C​wu​. OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is the minimum weight of a vertex cover of GPSG^S_PGPS​. The LP relaxation [CS-LP] asks for x∈[0,1]inc⁡(P)x\in[0,1]^{\operatorname{inc}(P)}x∈[0,1]inc(P) with xu+xv≥1x_u+x_v\ge1xu​+xv​≥1 on every edge, minimizing ∑uwuxu\sum_u w_ux_u∑u​wu​xu​. For a solution xxx write Va={u:xu=a}V_a=\{u: x_u=a\}Va​={u:xu​=a}, and for a linear extension LLL let I1/2(L)I_{1/2}(L)I1/2​(L) be the pairs of V1/2V_{1/2}V1/2​ reversed in LLL.

The graph of incomparable pairs GPG_PGP​ (Felsner and Trotter 2000) also has the incomparable pairs as vertices; two of them are adjacent when the pair of them is a minimal set of incomparable pairs that no linear extension reverses entirely.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (p. 658)

For an instance SSS, a k:tk:tk:t-realizer L1,…,LtL_1,\dots,L_tL1​,…,Lt​ of PPP, and a half-integral optimal solution xxx of [CS-LP], put Ci=V1∪(V1/2∖I1/2(Li))C_i=V_1\cup\bigl(V_{1/2}\setminus I_{1/2}(L_i)\bigr)Ci​=V1​∪(V1/2​∖I1/2​(Li​)). Then every CiC_iCi​ is a vertex cover of GPSG^S_PGPS​, and

1t∑i=1tw(Ci)  ≤  (2−2t/k)OPT.\frac1t\sum_{i=1}^t w(C_i)\;\le\;\Bigl(2-\frac{2}{t/k}\Bigr)\mathrm{OPT}.t1​i=1∑t​w(Ci​)≤(2−t/k2​)OPT.

Milestones

  • Proposition 3.2 (p. 657): GPS=GPG^S_P=G_PGPS​=GP​.
  • Footnote 4 (p. 659): the pairs reversed by a linear extension are independent in GPSG^S_PGPS​.
  • Eq. (4): 1t∣{i:Li reverses u}∣≥k/t\frac1t|\{i: L_i\text{ reverses }u\}|\ge k/tt1​∣{i:Li​ reverses u}∣≥k/t for every incomparable pair uuu.
  • Eq. (5): 1t∑iw(I1/2(Li))≥kt w(V1/2)\frac1t\sum_i w(I_{1/2}(L_i))\ge \frac kt\,w(V_{1/2})t1​∑i​w(I1/2​(Li​))≥tk​w(V1/2​).
  • Hochbaum's observation (§5, p. 659): for half-integral feasible xxx, V1∪CV_1\cup CV1​∪C covers GPSG^S_PGPS​ whenever CCC covers GPS[V1/2]G^S_P[V_{1/2}]GPS​[V1/2​].
  • Eqs. (6)–(8): 1t∑iw(Ci)≤w(V1)+(1−kt)w(V1/2)≤2(1−kt)(w(V1)+12w(V1/2))≤(2−2t/k)OPT\frac1t\sum_iw(C_i)\le w(V_1)+(1-\frac kt)w(V_{1/2})\le 2(1-\frac kt)(w(V_1)+\frac12w(V_{1/2}))\le(2-\frac2{t/k})\mathrm{OPT}t1​∑i​w(Ci​)≤w(V1​)+(1−tk​)w(V1/2​)≤2(1−tk​)(w(V1​)+21​w(V1/2​))≤(2−t/k2​)OPT when PPP is not a linear order.

Significance

The result. Combined with the cited Theorem 2.1 (Ambühl–Mastrolilli 2009; Correa–Schulz 2005), which turns an α\alphaα-approximate vertex cover of GPSG^S_PGPS​ into an α\alphaα-approximate schedule, Theorem 5.1 gives a (2−2/f)(2-2/f)(2−2/f)-approximation for 1∣prec∣∑wjCj1|\mathrm{prec}|\sum w_jC_j1∣prec∣∑wj​Cj​ whenever the precedence order has an efficiently samplable realizer with t/k≤ft/k\le ft/k≤f. The paper applies it to interval orders (3/23/23/2), convex bipartite orders and semiorders (4/34/34/3), orders of bounded degree and orders of interval dimension two; for the earlier special classes it matched or improved the best known ratios, and for the last two it gave the first results. Proposition 3.2 makes the dimension theory of posets (realizers, critical pairs, fractional dimension) directly available to the vertex cover approach.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a Lean development of incomparable pairs, linear extensions, kkk-fold realizers and the hypergraph of incomparable pairs, which other dimension-theory missions can reuse, and a verified LP-rounding argument for half-integral vertex cover solutions under a distribution of independent sets.

Difficulty

Most of the rounding argument is arithmetic over finite sums. The central nontrivial step is the inclusion GP⊆GPSG_P\subseteq G^S_PGP​⊆GPS​ in Proposition 3.2: for two incomparable pairs that are not adjacent under the three-case rule, one must construct a single linear extension reversing both. This needs an extension of PPP by two new comparabilities whose transitive closure is still antisymmetric, followed by Szpilrajn's theorem; checking that every potential cycle is excluded by the three cases is the actual content. The opposite inclusion, and footnote 4, follow from transitivity and antisymmetry of linear orders. A second point of care is the inequality t≥2kt\ge 2kt≥2k used in step (7): it is not part of the definition of a realizer, and follows from each linear extension reversing exactly one of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) and (y,x)(y,x)(y,x).

Formalization scope

  • Jobs form a finite type N; the precedence order is a relation P : N → N → Prop with IsPartialOrder, carried by the structure Instance. Processing times and weights are nonnegative reals.
  • inc⁡(P)\operatorname{inc}(P)inc(P) is the subtype IncPair P of N × N; a linear extension is a relation with IsLinearOrder containing P; a k:tk:tk:t-realizer is a family Fin t → LinearExtension P with t>0t>0t>0. Reversal of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) means y<xy<xy<x in LLL throughout; the page's "y>xy>xy>x" in Eq. (4) and "Prob[j>i]\mathrm{Prob}[j>i]Prob[j>i]" in Eq. (5) are the same family of inequalities because inc⁡(P)\operatorname{inc}(P)inc(P) is symmetric.
  • GPSG^S_PGPS​ is the symmetric closure of the printed three-case rule on distinct nodes. GPG_PGP​ is defined through linear extensions and hyperedge minimality, never through the three-case rule, so Proposition 3.2 is a genuine statement and not a definitional equality.
  • [CS-LP] drops the constant term ∑jpjwj+∑(i,j)∈Ppiwj\sum_jp_jw_j+\sum_{(i,j)\in P}p_iw_j∑j​pj​wj​+∑(i,j)∈P​pi​wj​ of [CS-IP], which does not affect optimality. OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is the minimum weight of a vertex cover of GPSG^S_PGPS​, taken over a finite nonempty family.
  • Not formalized: "efficiently samplable", "polynomial time" and "randomized algorithm". The expectation over a uniformly sampled LiL_iLi​ is stated as the average 1t∑i=1t\frac1t\sum_{i=1}^tt1​∑i=1t​, which is equivalent to it and stronger than the existence of one good index. The existence of a half-integral optimal [CS-LP] solution (Nemhauser–Trotter, cited) is a hypothesis on xxx. The conversion of a vertex cover into a schedule (Theorem 2.1, cited) is not formalized; the goal is stated for vertex covers of GPSG^S_PGPS​.
  • Constants: 2−2/(t/k)2-2/(t/k)2−2/(t/k) in real arithmetic; it equals 2−2k/t2-2k/t2−2k/t, and equals 222 when k=0k=0k=0.
  • The paper assumes fdim⁡(P)≥2\operatorname{fdim}(P)\ge2fdim(P)≥2, i.e. PPP is not a linear order. Eqs. (6)–(8) carry that hypothesis as the paper does; the goal omits it because for a linear order both sides are 000.
  • Conclusion (a), that each CiC_iCi​ is a vertex cover, is part of the goal and is not assumed.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, and a reusable Szpilrajn-style lemma producing a linear extension that reverses a prescribed set of compatible incomparable pairs.

Selected references

  • C. Ambühl, M. Mastrolilli, N. Mutsanas, O. Svensson, On the approximability of single-machine scheduling with precedence constraints, Math. Oper. Res. 36(4):653–669, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1110.0512
  • C. Ambühl, M. Mastrolilli, Single machine precedence constrained scheduling is a vertex cover problem, Algorithmica 53(4), 2009 (reference [2] of the paper).
  • J. R. Correa, A. S. Schulz, Single-machine scheduling with precedence constraints, Math. Oper. Res. 30(4):1005–1021, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1050.0158
  • G. R. Brightwell, E. R. Scheinerman, Fractional dimension of partial orders, Order 9(2):139–158, 1992 (reference [7]).
  • S. Felsner, W. T. Trotter, Dimension, graph and hypergraph coloring, Order 17(2):167–177, 2000 (reference [13]).
  • D. S. Hochbaum, Efficient bounds for the stable set, vertex cover and set packing problems, Discrete Appl. Math. 6(3):243–254, 1983 (reference [20]).
  • G. L. Nemhauser, L. E. Trotter, Vertex packings: structural properties and algorithms, Math. Programming 8(1):232–248, 1975 (reference [29]).
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Log-Barrier Interior Point Methods Are Not Strongly Polynomial 1: Every Polygonal Curve in the Wide Neighborhood of the Central Path of LW_r(t) from μ̄ ≤ 1 to μ̄ ≥ t² Has at Least 2^(r−1) SegmentsResearch Paper

Motivation

Interior point methods solve linear programs in a number of arithmetic operations polynomial in the bit length of the input (Karmarkar 1984). Whether linear programming admits a strongly polynomial algorithm, one whose number of arithmetic operations is bounded by a polynomial in the number of variables and constraints alone, is open; it is the ninth of Smale's problems for the next century (Smale 1998/2000, see the references). A natural question is whether some interior point method is strongly polynomial. Primal-dual path-following methods follow the central path of a log-barrier problem and are the methods used in practice.

Allamigeon, Benchimol, Gaubert and Joswig (arXiv:1708.01544, SIAM J. Appl. Algebra Geom. 2018) gave such a family. For linear programs LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t) with 2r2r2r variables and 3r+13r+13r+1 constraints, every path-following method that stays in the wide neighborhood of the central path needs at least 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 iterations once ttt is large enough. The same family disproves the "continuous Hirsch conjecture" of Deza, Terlaky and Zinchenko (DTZ09, see the references) on the total curvature of the central path. That curvature result is the subject of a separate mission. This mission formalizes the iteration bound.

Setting

For a real m×nm\times nm×n matrix AAA, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn and N:=n+mN:=n+mN:=n+m, the paper considers the linear program in slack form and its dual,

LP(A,b,c): min⁡ ⟨c,x⟩  s.t.  Ax+w=b, (x,w)≥0,DualLP(A,b,c): s−A⊤y=c, (s,y)≥0.\mathrm{LP}(A,b,c):\ \min\ \langle c,x\rangle\ \text{ s.t. }\ Ax+w=b,\ (x,w)\ge0,\qquad \mathrm{DualLP}(A,b,c):\ s-A^\top y=c,\ (s,y)\ge0 .LP(A,b,c): min ⟨c,x⟩  s.t.  Ax+w=b, (x,w)≥0,DualLP(A,b,c): s−A⊤y=c, (s,y)≥0.

A primal-dual point is z=(x,w,s,y)∈R2Nz=(x,w,s,y)\in\mathbb R^{2N}z=(x,w,s,y)∈R2N. The set F∘\mathcal F^\circF∘ of strictly feasible points consists of the zzz with all 2N2N2N coordinates positive that satisfy both equality systems. The duality measure is

μˉ(z)=1N(⟨x,s⟩+⟨w,y⟩),\bar\mu(z)=\frac1N\big(\langle x,s\rangle+\langle w,y\rangle\big),μˉ​(z)=N1​(⟨x,s⟩+⟨w,y⟩),

and for 0<θ<10<\theta<10<θ<1 the wide neighborhood of the central path is

Nθ−∞={z∈F∘: xjsj≥(1−θ)μˉ(z) ∀j,  wiyi≥(1−θ)μˉ(z) ∀i}.\mathcal N^{-\infty}_\theta=\Big\{z\in\mathcal F^\circ:\ x_js_j\ge(1-\theta)\bar\mu(z)\ \forall j,\ \ w_iy_i\ge(1-\theta)\bar\mu(z)\ \forall i\Big\}.Nθ−∞​={z∈F∘: xj​sj​≥(1−θ)μˉ​(z) ∀j,  wi​yi​≥(1−θ)μˉ​(z) ∀i}.

The central path itself is the set of points where all products xjsjx_js_jxj​sj​, wiyiw_iy_iwi​yi​ are equal. The neighborhood bounds the products only from below. It contains the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ neighborhoods used by short-step, long-step and predictor-corrector methods.

The instance is LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t), for r≥1r\ge1r≥1 and t>0t>0t>0:

min⁡ x1  s.t.  x1≤t2, x2≤t, x2j+1≤t x2j−1, x2j+1≤t x2j, x2j+2≤t1−1/2j(x2j−1+x2j) (1≤j<r), x2r−1,x2r≥0.\min\ x_1\ \text{ s.t. }\ x_1\le t^2,\ x_2\le t,\ x_{2j+1}\le t\,x_{2j-1},\ x_{2j+1}\le t\,x_{2j},\ x_{2j+2}\le t^{1-1/2^j}(x_{2j-1}+x_{2j})\ (1\le j<r),\ x_{2r-1},x_{2r}\ge0 .min x1​  s.t.  x1​≤t2, x2​≤t, x2j+1​≤tx2j−1​, x2j+1​≤tx2j​, x2j+2​≤t1−1/2j(x2j−1​+x2j​) (1≤j<r), x2r−1​,x2r​≥0.

With slacks w1,…,w3r−1w_1,\dots,w_{3r-1}w1​,…,w3r−1​ it becomes LWr=(t)=LP(A,b,c)\mathbf{LW}^=_r(t)=\mathrm{LP}(A,b,c)LWr=​(t)=LP(A,b,c) with n=2rn=2rn=2r, m=3r−1m=3r-1m=3r−1, N=5r−1N=5r-1N=5r−1. Its wide neighborhood is written Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​. A polygonal curve is a union [z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp][z^0,z^1]\cup\dots\cup[z^{p-1},z^p][z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp] of ppp segments, and it is contained in the neighborhood when every point of every segment is.

The milestones use the tropical semifield T=R∪{−∞}\mathbb T=\mathbb R\cup\{-\infty\}T=R∪{−∞} with a⊕b=max⁡(a,b)a\oplus b=\max(a,b)a⊕b=max(a,b) and a⊙b=a+ba\odot b=a+ba⊙b=a+b. The tropical segment tsegm(u,v)\mathsf{tsegm}(u,v)tsegm(u,v) is the set of points λ⊙u⊕μ⊙v\lambda\odot u\oplus\mu\odot vλ⊙u⊕μ⊙v with λ⊕μ=0\lambda\oplus\mu=0λ⊕μ=0. The Funk metric is δF(x,y)=max⁡(0,max⁡k(yk−xk))\delta_F(x,y)=\max(0,\max_k(y_k-x_k))δF​(x,y)=max(0,maxk​(yk​−xk​)), with d∞(x,y)=max⁡(δF(x,y),δF(y,x))d_\infty(x,y)=\max(\delta_F(x,y),\delta_F(y,x))d∞​(x,y)=max(δF​(x,y),δF​(y,x)) and the directed Hausdorff distance d∞(X,Y)=sup⁡x∈Xinf⁡y∈Yd∞(x,y)d_\infty(X,Y)=\sup_{x\in X}\inf_{y\in Y}d_\infty(x,y)d∞​(X,Y)=supx∈X​infy∈Y​d∞​(x,y). Finally, log⁡t\log_tlogt​ is applied coordinatewise, with log⁡t0=−∞\log_t0=-\inftylogt​0=−∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 30 (p. 27)

Let r≥1r\ge1r≥1 and 0<θ<10<\theta<10<θ<1, and suppose that

t>(max⁡((10r−2)!, ((10r−1)!)24(1−θ)3))2r−1.(36)t>\Big(\max\Big((10r-2)!,\ \frac{((10r-1)!)^{24}}{(1-\theta)^3}\Big)\Big)^{2^{r-1}} .\tag{36}t>(max((10r−2)!, (1−θ)3((10r−1)!)24​))2r−1.(36)

If a polygonal curve [z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp][z^0,z^1]\cup\dots\cup[z^{p-1},z^p][z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp] is contained in Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ with μˉ(z0)≤1\bar\mu(z^0)\le1μˉ​(z0)≤1 and μˉ(zp)≥t2\bar\mu(z^p)\ge t^2μˉ​(zp)≥t2, then

p≥2r−1.p\ge2^{r-1}.p≥2r−1.

The threshold (36) is the paper's own explicit constant. Corollary 31 (Theorem B of the introduction) restates the result for algorithms. Any method whose iterates and the segments joining them stay in the wide neighborhood performs at least 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 iterations to reduce the duality measure from t2t^2t2 to 111.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 5). On the primal-dual feasible set, μˉ((1−α)z+αz′)=(1−α)μˉ(z)+αμˉ(z′)\bar\mu((1-\alpha)z+\alpha z')=(1-\alpha)\bar\mu(z)+\alpha\bar\mu(z')μˉ​((1−α)z+αz′)=(1−α)μˉ​(z)+αμˉ​(z′) for all α∈R\alpha\in\mathbb Rα∈R.
  2. Lemma 5 (p. 10). For u≤vu\le vu≤v in Td\mathbb T^dTd, tsegm(u,v)\mathsf{tsegm}(u,v)tsegm(u,v) is a polygonal curve whose segments, oriented from uuu to vvv, have directions eK1,…,eKℓe^{K_1},\dots,e^{K_\ell}eK1​,…,eKℓ​ with K1⊊⋯⊊KℓK_1\subsetneq\dots\subsetneq K_\ellK1​⊊⋯⊊Kℓ​ and ℓ≤d\ell\le dℓ≤d.
  3. Lemma 8 (p. 11). For a segment S=[u,v]S=[u,v]S=[u,v] in R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​ and t>1t>1t>1,
d∞(tsegm(log⁡tu,log⁡tv), log⁡tS)≤log⁡t2.d_\infty\big(\mathsf{tsegm}(\log_tu,\log_tv),\ \log_tS\big)\le\log_t2 .d∞​(tsegm(logt​u,logt​v), logt​S)≤logt​2.
  1. Lemma 11 (p. 13). For a d×dd\times dd×d matrix M\mathbf MM with monomial entries ±tαij\pm t^{\alpha_{ij}}±tαij​ and t>1t>1t>1, log⁡t∣det⁡M(t)∣\log_t|\det\mathbf M(t)|logt​∣detM(t)∣ and val⁡(det⁡M)\operatorname{val}(\det\mathbf M)val(detM) differ by at most log⁡td!\log_td!logt​d!; the lower bound holds once t≥(d!)1/η(M)t\ge(d!)^{1/\eta(\mathbf M)}t≥(d!)1/η(M).
  2. Proposition 20 (p. 19). The explicit recursion for xλx^\lambdaxλ gives the greatest point of the tropical polyhedron {x∈P′:x1≤λ}\{x\in\mathcal P':x_1\le\lambda\}{x∈P′:x1​≤λ}, where P′⊆T2r\mathcal P'\subseteq\mathbb T^{2r}P′⊆T2r is cut out by the tropicalized constraints (26) of LWr\mathbf{LW}_rLWr​.

Significance

The theorem shows that the iteration count of a large class of primal-dual log-barrier interior point methods cannot be bounded by any function of rrr that grows more slowly than 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1, uniformly in the data. The class includes the methods of Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise, Monteiro–Adler and Mizuno–Todd–Ye. No such method is strongly polynomial. The constraint matrix of LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t) is fixed by rrr and ttt alone, so the bound concerns the combinatorial dimension, not the bit length. The only property of the method used is that its trajectory stays in Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​. The lower bound therefore applies to every method with that property, whatever rule chooses its steps.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of its tropical ingredients is known. A formalization would check the explicit threshold (36), which the paper derives in a few lines from bounds on Puiseux polyhedra. It would also produce reusable statements about tropical segments, the Funk and Hilbert metrics on Td\mathbb T^dTd, and determinants of monomial matrices.

Difficulty

Following the central path is not hard in principle: the obvious argument tracks the duality measure, which decreases by a constant factor per iteration in a neighborhood of the path. That argument gives only upper bounds. The lower bound requires showing that the neighborhood itself, for large ttt, is too thin to be crossed in a few straight steps, uniformly over every possible trajectory. The paper does this by passing to the limit t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ on logarithmic scale. The image of Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ under log⁡t\log_tlogt​ collapses onto a piecewise-linear tropical central path, and a segment of R2N\mathbb R^{2N}R2N becomes, up to log⁡t2\log_t2logt​2, a tropical segment. The tropical central path of LWr\mathbf{LW}_rLWr​ then has to be shown to need 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 tropical segments. The limit argument has to be made quantitative at a finite, explicit ttt. That is where the Puiseux-series machinery (Theorems 12, 15 and 19 of the paper) and the explicit constant enter.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated over R\mathbb RR and T\mathbb TT; the goal typechecks without the field of Puiseux series. A primal-dual point is an element of Rn×Rm×Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm×Rn×Rm. The dual equation is s−A⊤y=cs-A^\top y=cs−A⊤y=c with Mathlib's transpose, μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ divides by N=n+mN=n+mN=n+m (equal to 5r−15r-15r−1 for LWr=\mathbf{LW}^=_rLWr=​), and the wide neighborhood is one-sided. The instance matrix is generated from the paper's 1-based row and column numbers; Lean indices are 0-based. A polygonal curve is a map z:{0,…,p}→R2Nz:\{0,\dots,p\}\to\mathbb R^{2N}z:{0,…,p}→R2N with segment ℝ (z i) (z (i+1)) ⊆ N. The power 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 in (36) is a natural-number power and the factorials are natural-number factorials. T\mathbb TT is WithBot ℝ, and distances that can be infinite take values in EReal, with the convention −∞+(+∞)=−∞-\infty+(+\infty)=-\infty−∞+(+∞)=−∞ encoded explicitly.

Two statements are repaired or restated. Lemma 11 is printed for all t>0t>0t>0, but its first inequality fails for 0<t<10<t<10<t<1 (for M=(t111)\mathbf M=\begin{pmatrix}t&1\\1&1\end{pmatrix}M=(t1​11​) at t=1/2t=1/2t=1/2), so it is stated for t>1t>1t>1. Lemma 8 makes explicit its implicit hypotheses t>1t>1t>1 and u,v≥0u,v\ge0u,v≥0. Proposition 20 is stated in the form its proof establishes, as the greatest point of a tropical polyhedron. Its identification with the valuation of the Puiseux central path is not part of the item. Monomial matrices are given by sign and exponent matrices, and the valuation of the determinant is computed from the permutation expansion.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ is not empty, since the build includes a sorry-free proof that it contains an explicit point for r=1r=1r=1, t=2t=2t=2, θ=1/2\theta=1/2θ=1/2. A curve with p=0p=0p=0 cannot satisfy both duality-measure conditions, since t2>1t^2>1t2>1.

The paper's Puiseux-series results are not posed: Theorems 12, 15, 19 and 29, Propositions 14, 16, 21 and 28, Corollary 17, and the count γ([0,2])≥2r−1\gamma([0,2])\ge2^{r-1}γ([0,2])≥2r−1 of §6.2. They need a faithful model of the field of absolutely convergent generalized Puiseux series and of the tropical central path. Contributions of that infrastructure, and of these statements as further milestones, are welcome. So are proofs of the five milestones, which need no Puiseux series. Proposition 1, Lemma 5 and Proposition 20 are elementary, and Lemma 8 and Lemma 11 are estimates with explicit constants.

Selected references

  • X. Allamigeon, P. Benchimol, S. Gaubert, M. Joswig, Log-barrier interior point methods are not strongly polynomial, SIAM J. Appl. Algebra Geom. 2(1), 2018; arXiv:1708.01544v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.01544
  • A. Deza, T. Terlaky, Y. Zinchenko, Central path curvature and iteration-complexity for redundant Klee–Minty cubes, in Advances in Applied Mathematics and Global Optimization, Adv. Mech. Math. 17, Springer, 2009, pp. 223–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75714-8
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, Math. Intelligencer 20(2), 1998, 7–15; reprinted in Mathematics: Frontiers and Perspectives, AMS, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03025291
  • M. Develin, B. Sturmfels, Tropical convexity, Doc. Math. 9, 2004. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0308254
  • S. J. Wright, Primal-Dual Interior-Point Methods, SIAM, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971453
  • X. Allamigeon, S. Gaubert, M. Skomra, Tropical spectrahedra, Discrete Comput. Geom. 63, 2020; arXiv:1610.06746. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.06746
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Data-Driven Robust Optimization V: The Order-Statistic Box U^M Built from Marginal Samples Dominates Value at Risk with Probability at Least 1 − αResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization replaces an uncertain constraint f(u~,x)≤0f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x)\le 0f(u~,x)≤0 by the requirement that it hold for every u\mathbf uu in an uncertainty set U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd. The resulting problems are tractable for many sets, but the choice of U\mathcal UU decides whether the solution means anything probabilistically. Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (arXiv:1401.0212v2; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018) propose to build U\mathcal UU from data so that, with high probability over the sample, every robust-feasible decision is also feasible with probability at least 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ under the unknown distribution P∗\mathbb P^*P∗.

This mission covers §6 of that paper, the case where the data are samples of the marginals of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗, observed separately, with no assumption that the marginals are independent. This is the situation of asynchronous measurements or records with many missing entries: the joint law cannot be learned, yet a valid uncertainty set can still be built. The set is a box whose sides are order statistics, and its guarantee rests on an elementary binomial test (David and Nagaraja, Order Statistics, §7.1) and a Value-at-Risk bound of Embrechts, Höing and Juri (Finance Stoch. 7, 2003).

Setting

Let P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ be a probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd whose support lies in a known box [u^(0),u^(N+1)]={u:u^i(0)≤ui≤u^i(N+1)}[\hat{\mathbf u}^{(0)},\hat{\mathbf u}^{(N+1)}]=\{\mathbf u:\hat u^{(0)}_i\le u_i\le\hat u^{(N+1)}_i\}[u^(0),u^(N+1)]={u:u^i(0)​≤ui​≤u^i(N+1)​}. Fix a violation level 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1 and a significance level 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1.

The Value at Risk of u~Tv\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf vu~Tv under a probability measure P\mathbb PP is

VaRϵP(v)=inf⁡{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ},\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)=\inf\{t:\mathbb P(\tilde{\mathbf u}^T\mathbf v\le t)\ge1-\epsilon\},VaRϵP​(v)=inf{t:P(u~Tv≤t)≥1−ϵ},

and the support function of a set U\mathcal UU is δ∗(v∣U)=sup⁡u∈UvTu\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U)=\sup_{\mathbf u\in\mathcal U}\mathbf v^T\mathbf uδ∗(v∣U)=supu∈U​vTu. A set U\mathcal UU implies a probabilistic guarantee at level ϵ\epsilonϵ for P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ if for every f(u,x)f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x)f(u,x) concave in u\mathbf uu and every x∗\mathbf x^*x∗, f(u,x∗)≤0f(\mathbf u,\mathbf x^*)\le0f(u,x∗)≤0 for all u∈U\mathbf u\in\mathcal Uu∈U implies P∗(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ\mathbb P^*(f(\tilde{\mathbf u},\mathbf x^*)\le0)\ge1-\epsilonP∗(f(u~,x∗)≤0)≥1−ϵ.

From a sample u^1,…,u^N\hat{\mathbf u}^1,\dots,\hat{\mathbf u}^Nu^1,…,u^N let u^i(j)\hat u^{(j)}_iu^i(j)​, 1≤j≤N1\le j\le N1≤j≤N, be the jjj-th order statistic (the jjj-th smallest value) of coordinate iii, and let u^i(0),u^i(N+1)\hat u^{(0)}_i,\hat u^{(N+1)}_iu^i(0)​,u^i(N+1)​ be the box ends. The index sss is

s=min⁡{k∈N:∑j=kN(Nj)(ϵ/d)N−j(1−ϵ/d)j≤α2d},s=N+1 if the set is empty,(26)s=\min\Big\{k\in\mathbb N:\sum_{j=k}^N\binom Nj(\epsilon/d)^{N-j}(1-\epsilon/d)^j\le\frac{\alpha}{2d}\Big\},\qquad s=N+1\text{ if the set is empty}, \tag{26}s=min{k∈N:j=k∑N​(jN​)(ϵ/d)N−j(1−ϵ/d)j≤2dα​},s=N+1 if the set is empty,(26)

and the uncertainty set is the box

UϵM={u∈Rd:u^i(N−s+1)≤ui≤u^i(s), i=1,…,d}.(28)\mathcal U^M_\epsilon=\{\mathbf u\in\mathbb R^d:\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i\le u_i\le\hat u^{(s)}_i,\ i=1,\dots,d\}. \tag{28}UϵM​={u∈Rd:u^i(N−s+1)​≤ui​≤u^i(s)​, i=1,…,d}.(28)

The confidence region PM\mathcal P^MPM is the set of probability measures on the box with VaRϵ/dP(ei)≤u^i(s)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(\mathbf e_i)\le\hat u^{(s)}_iVaRϵ/dP​(ei​)≤u^i(s)​ and VaRϵ/dP(−ei)≤−u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(-\mathbf e_i)\le-\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/dP​(−ei​)≤−u^i(N−s+1)​ for every iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

If N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s, then with probability at least 1−α1-\alpha1−α over the sample (NNN samples of each marginal of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗, each marginal's samples i.i.d., arbitrary dependence across marginals),

δ∗(v∣UϵM)≥VaRϵP∗(v)for all v∈Rd,\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\qquad\text{for all }\mathbf v\in\mathbb R^d,δ∗(v∣UϵM​)≥VaRϵP∗​(v)for all v∈Rd,

and, for every sample, UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​ is nonempty, convex and compact with

δ∗(v∣UϵM)=∑i=1dmax⁡(viu^i(N−s+1), viu^i(s)).(29)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)=\sum_{i=1}^d\max\big(v_i\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i,\,v_i\hat u^{(s)}_i\big). \tag{29}δ∗(v∣UϵM​)=i=1∑d​max(vi​u^i(N−s+1)​,vi​u^i(s)​).(29)

Milestones

  1. Positive homogeneity: VaRδP(cw)=c VaRδP(w)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\delta(c\mathbf w)=c\,\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\delta(\mathbf w)VaRδP​(cw)=cVaRδP​(w) for c>0c>0c>0 (p. 10).
  2. Each one-sided order-statistic test is valid at level α/(2d)\alpha/(2d)α/(2d): PS∗(u^i(s)<VaRϵ/dP∗(ei))≤α/(2d)\mathbb P^*_{\mathcal S}(\hat u^{(s)}_i<\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_{\epsilon/d}(\mathbf e_i))\le\alpha/(2d)PS∗​(u^i(s)​<VaRϵ/dP∗​(ei​))≤α/(2d), and the mirror bound for −ei-\mathbf e_i−ei​ with u^i(N−s+1)\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iu^i(N−s+1)​ (pp. 20–21).
  3. Union bound: PS∗(P∗∈PM)≥1−α\mathbb P^*_{\mathcal S}(\mathbb P^*\in\mathcal P^M)\ge1-\alphaPS∗​(P∗∈PM)≥1−α (p. 21).
  4. The weak Embrechts bound VaRϵP(v)≤∑iVaRϵ/dP(viei)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\sum_i\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_{\epsilon/d}(v_i\mathbf e_i)VaRϵP​(v)≤∑i​VaRϵ/dP​(vi​ei​) for every probability measure P\mathbb PP (p. 21).
  5. If N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s then u^i(N−s+1)≤u^i(s)\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_i\le\hat u^{(s)}_iu^i(N−s+1)​≤u^i(s)​ (p. 21).
  6. (EC.8): for P∈PM\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^MP∈PM, VaRϵP(v)≤∑vi>0viu^i(s)+∑vi≤0viu^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)\le\sum_{v_i>0}v_i\hat u^{(s)}_i+\sum_{v_i\le0}v_i\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵP​(v)≤∑vi​>0​vi​u^i(s)​+∑vi​≤0​vi​u^i(N−s+1)​ (p. ec5).
  7. (29) as a standalone statement (p. 21).

Significance

Theorem 7 gives an uncertainty set with a finite-sample guarantee from data that carry no information on the dependence between coordinates. The set is a box, so the robust counterpart of a linear constraint is again linear, and Remark 12 of the paper notes that separation over {(v,t):δ∗(v∣UM)≤t}\{(\mathbf v,t):\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M)\le t\}{(v,t):δ∗(v∣UM)≤t} is in closed form. Unlike the other confidence regions of the paper (χ², G-test, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, bootstrap), whose coverage is asymptotic, tabulated or approximate, the test here is exact and distribution-free, so the probability statement itself is in scope.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a complete formal statement of Theorem 7 including the sampling probability, the binomial order-statistic test for a quantile, and the marginal Value-at-Risk bound, all of which are standard tools in nonparametric statistics and risk management that are absent from Mathlib.

Difficulty

The deterministic half, (EC.8) and (29), is short once the weak Embrechts bound is available. The work is in the probabilistic half, which the paper delegates to a textbook citation. Validity of the order-statistic test ties together facts that no library currently connects: the combinatorics of sorted tuples, the binomial law of the number of i.i.d. sample points below a threshold, the behaviour of a quantile at its left limit (the distribution function at the quantile can exceed 1−ϵ/d1-\epsilon/d1−ϵ/d, so the obvious bound uses the wrong probability), and the comparison of binomial tails across success probabilities. The lower-tail test must be handled with the index N−s+1N-s+1N−s+1 and the quantile of −u~i-\tilde u_i−u~i​, where a sign or off-by-one slip produces a false statement that still looks plausible. The boundary regime s=N+1s=N+1s=N+1, where UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​ is the a priori box, is valid only because P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ lives in that box and needs separate treatment.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with 0-based coordinates; vectors pair by ⬝ᵥ. Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level 1−ϵ1-\epsilon1−ϵ applied to u↦uTv\mathbf u\mapsto\mathbf u^T\mathbf vu↦uTv, and the support function is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction; both are real infima/suprema, genuine under 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, a probability measure, and a nonempty bounded set (the goal proves the latter). The order statistics use Mathlib's Tuple.sort; the index N−s+1N-s+1N−s+1 is N + 1 - s in natural numbers, which is the paper's value since 1≤s≤N+11\le s\le N+11≤s≤N+1.

The data are an array S : Fin N → Fin d → ℝ, S k i the kkk-th sample of marginal iii, under any probability law Q such that, for each iii, the samples S 0 i, …, S (N-1) i are i.i.d. from the iii-th marginal of P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ (IsMarginalSampleLaw). The dependence between samples of different marginals is left arbitrary, as the paper's asynchronous setting requires; i.i.d. draws of whole vectors are one admissible law. Probabilities of possibly non-measurable events are outer measures. The level ϵ\epsilonϵ is fixed: by Remark 11 the family {UϵM}\{\mathcal U^M_\epsilon\}{UϵM​} need not work for all ϵ\epsilonϵ simultaneously.

The guarantee is stated in the criterion form of Theorem 1(a) of the paper: δ∗(v∣UϵM)≥VaRϵP∗(v)\delta^*(\mathbf v\mid\mathcal U^M_\epsilon)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P^*}_\epsilon(\mathbf v)δ∗(v∣UϵM​)≥VaRϵP∗​(v) for all v\mathbf vv, together with nonemptiness, convexity and compactness of UϵM\mathcal U^M_\epsilonUϵM​. Theorem 1 (mission I of this series) shows that for such sets this criterion is equivalent to implying a probabilistic guarantee. The coverage of the test is proved, not assumed: there is no hypothesis that P∗∈PM\mathbb P^*\in\mathcal P^MP∗∈PM. A formalization in which the support function is evaluated on an empty or unbounded set, where the library value is 0, would make the criterion trivial; the nonemptiness and compactness conjunct of the goal rules it out.

Standing assumptions: d≥1d\ge1d≥1, 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1, 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, u^(0)≤u^(N+1)\hat{\mathbf u}^{(0)}\le\hat{\mathbf u}^{(N+1)}u^(0)≤u^(N+1), P∗\mathbb P^*P∗ a probability measure with P∗\mathbb P^*P∗-null complement of the box, and Theorem 7's hypothesis N−s+1<sN-s+1<sN−s+1<s. The page prints the second condition of PM\mathcal P^MPM as "VaRϵ/dPi≥u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}^{\mathbb P_i}_{\epsilon/d}\ge\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/dPi​​≥u^i(N−s+1)​"; the formal region uses the lower-tail condition VaRϵ/d(−ei)≤−u^i(N−s+1)\mathrm{VaR}_{\epsilon/d}(-\mathbf e_i)\le-\hat u^{(N-s+1)}_iVaRϵ/d​(−ei​)≤−u^i(N−s+1)​ that the hypothesis, its rejection rule and the proof use. (EC.8) is stated with "≤\le≤" for each P∈PM\mathbb P\in\mathcal P^MP∈PM; the page's middle equality is not claimed.

Reusable infrastructure welcome beyond this mission: order statistics of tuples and the binomial law of threshold counts for i.i.d. samples; monotonicity of binomial tails in the success probability; the left-limit property of quantiles; the Embrechts-type subadditivity bound for Value at Risk.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
  • H. A. David, H. N. Nagaraja, Order Statistics, Wiley (cited by the paper as 1970; third edition 2003), §7.1, distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471722162
  • P. Embrechts, A. Höing, A. Juri, Using copulae to bound the Value-at-Risk for functions of dependent risks, Finance and Stochastics 7:145–167, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007800200085
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization V: The Optimal First Stage over a Dominating Simplex Is a 4√m-ApproximationResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two steps: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain right-hand side bbb is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen afterwards, with the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU to be minimized. Problems of this form arise in capacity planning, network design and inventory control, where the first stage is an investment and the second stage a recourse. Computing the fully adaptable optimum is hard in general, so tractable restrictions are used in practice, most prominently affine policies y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q (Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer, Nemirovski, Math. Program. 2004).

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. Ser. A, DOI 10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4) characterize how well affine policies perform. Their Section 5 shows a factor O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) when the first-stage matrix satisfies A≥0A\ge 0A≥0. Section 6, the subject of this mission, drops the sign condition on AAA: it constructs, from U\mathcal UU, a polytope U0\mathcal U^0U0 with at most m+1m+1m+1 vertices that dominates U\mathcal UU, and shows that an optimal first stage for U0\mathcal U^0U0 is a 4m4\sqrt m4m​-approximate first stage for the original problem.

Timeline. Ben-Tal et al. (2004) introduced affinely adjustable robust counterparts. Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) proved optimality of affine policies for one-dimensional multistage problems. Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) analysed static robust solutions for two-stage problems. The present paper (received 2009, published 2011) gives the Θ(m1/2)\Theta(m^{1/2})Θ(m1/2) picture for affine policies and the general-case first-stage approximation formalized here.

Setting

Fix matrices A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​ and cost vectors c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. The uncertainty set U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ is convex, compact and full-dimensional. A feasible solution of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is a pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with x≥0x\ge0x≥0 and, for every b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U, y(b)≥0y(b)\ge0y(b)≥0 and Ax+By(b)≥bAx+By(b)\ge bAx+By(b)≥b, componentwise. Its worst-case cost is sup⁡b∈U cTx+dTy(b)\sup_{b\in\mathcal U}\, c^Tx+d^Ty(b)supb∈U​cTx+dTy(b), and the fully adaptable optimum is

zAdapt(U)=inf⁡(x,y) feasible sup⁡b∈U cTx+dTy(b).z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\inf_{(x,y)\ \text{feasible}}\ \sup_{b\in\mathcal U}\ c^Tx+d^Ty(b).zAdapt​(U)=(x,y) feasibleinf​ b∈Usup​ cTx+dTy(b).

An optimal solution attains this value.

For j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m let μj=max⁡{bj:b∈U}\mu_j=\max\{b_j: b\in\mathcal U\}μj​=max{bj​:b∈U} and let βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U be a maximizer, βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​ (display (38)). Algorithm A\mathcal AA (Fig. 1 of the paper) starts with the index set J1={1,…,m}J_1=\{1,\dots,m\}J1​={1,…,m}; while some b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has ∑j∈J1bj/μj>m\sum_{j\in J_1}b_j/\mu_j>\sqrt m∑j∈J1​​bj​/μj​>m​, it picks a maximizer uku^kuk of that scaled sum over U\mathcal UU, adds uku^kuk to a running total on the coordinates of J1J_1J1​, and removes from J1J_1J1​ every coordinate whose total has reached μj\mu_jμj​. It stops after KKK iterations and returns β=u1+⋯+uK\beta=u^1+\dots+u^Kβ=u1+⋯+uK. The dominating set is

U0=conv⁡{2m⋅β1,…,2m⋅βm, 2β}.(66)\mathcal U^0=\operatorname{conv}\{2\sqrt m\cdot\beta^1,\dots,2\sqrt m\cdot\beta^m,\ 2\beta\}.\tag{66}U0=conv{2m​⋅β1,…,2m​⋅βm, 2β}.(66)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

For every run of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, every choice of the maximizers βj\beta^jβj, and every optimal solution (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​) of ΠAdapt(U0)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)ΠAdapt​(U0),

∀b∈U  ∃y≥0:Ax~+By≥b,cTx~+dTy≤4m⋅zAdapt(U).\forall b\in\mathcal U\ \ \exists y\ge 0:\quad A\tilde x+By\ge b,\qquad c^T\tilde x+d^Ty\le 4\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).∀b∈U  ∃y≥0:Ax~+By≥b,cTx~+dTy≤4m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

The page states the factor as O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​); 4m4\sqrt m4m​ is the constant its proof establishes.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 12. U0\mathcal U^0U0 dominates U\mathcal UU: every b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has some b′∈U0b'\in\mathcal U^0b′∈U0 with b≤b′b\le b'b≤b′.
  2. Lemma 13 (inequality). ΠAdapt(U0)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)ΠAdapt​(U0) is feasible with finite worst-case cost, and
zAdapt(U0)≤4m⋅zAdapt(U).z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)\le 4\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).zAdapt​(U0)≤4m​⋅zAdapt​(U).
  1. The domination claim in the proof of Theorem 6. If VVV dominates WWW and (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​) is optimal for ΠAdapt(V)\Pi_{Adapt}(V)ΠAdapt​(V) with finite worst-case cost, then every b∈Wb\in Wb∈W can be served from x~\tilde xx~ at cost at most zAdapt(V)z_{Adapt}(V)zAdapt​(V).

Significance

The result gives a first-stage decision with a guarantee of order m\sqrt mm​ for two-stage problems with an arbitrary first-stage matrix, a setting where the affine-policy analysis of Section 5 does not apply. The decision is obtained from a problem whose uncertainty set has at most m+1m+1m+1 extreme points, so it reduces an adaptive problem over a general convex set to one over a polytope with few vertices. Together with the paper's lower bounds (Theorems 2 and 3, Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ) for affine policies), it places the general-case approximability of the first stage at the same order as the affine-policy gap.

The result is proved in the paper. It has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The formalization produces, beyond the theorem itself, an encoding of model (1) with values that are honest infima, a relational encoding of Algorithm A\mathcal AA usable for its termination and output properties, and a reusable domination lemma for two-stage problems. Mission IV of this series (the case A≥0A\ge0A≥0) formalizes Lemmas 9 and 10 on Algorithm A\mathcal AA, which the proofs here use.

Difficulty

The obvious argument replaces U\mathcal UU by a simple set that contains or dominates it, such as the box ∏j[0,μj]\prod_j[0,\mu_j]∏j​[0,μj​], and solves over that set. This loses a factor mmm, not m\sqrt mm​: for U=conv⁡{0,e1,…,em}\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}\{0,e_1,\dots,e_m\}U=conv{0,e1​,…,em​} with A=0A=0A=0, B=IB=IB=I, c=0c=0c=0, d=ed=ed=e, the optimum over U\mathcal UU is 111 while the optimum over the box is mmm. A dominating set with few vertices whose cost is only O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) times the original optimum has to be built from U\mathcal UU itself, and controlling the cost of its vertex 2β2\beta2β depends on the number KKK of iterations of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, which is bounded only through the potential argument of Lemma 10 in the paper.

A second difficulty is that zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ is an infimum, not an attained minimum, over second-stage rules that are arbitrary functions; the cost comparison must work from near-optimal solutions of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U).

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions on Fin m, matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, and inequalities between vectors are componentwise. The paper's coordinate jjj is Fin index j−1j-1j−1. zAdapt(U)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdapt​(U) is the infimum of the set of bounds ttt such that some feasible (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) satisfies cTx+dTy(b)≤tc^Tx+d^Ty(b)\le tcTx+dTy(b)≤t for all b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U; this avoids a real supremum of a possibly unbounded worst case. An optimal solution is a feasible one that achieves every achievable bound. μ\muμ and the maximizers βj\beta^jβj enter the theorems as data with their defining properties. Algorithm A\mathcal AA is a relation on a choice sequence u1,u2,…u^1,u^2,\dotsu1,u2,…: the theorems hold for every run and every choice of maximizers, never for "some simplex dominating U\mathcal UU".

Standing assumptions of (1) carried by the goal and Lemma 13: c≥0c\ge0c≥0, d≥0d\ge0d≥0, U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ convex, compact and with nonempty interior, and (1) feasible. There is no sign condition on AAA. Lemma 12 keeps only nonnegativity and full-dimensionality of U\mathcal UU; the domination claim is stated for arbitrary scenario sets VVV and WWW with VVV dominating WWW and assumes that the optimal solution over VVV has a finite worst-case cost.

The printed Lemma 13 also asserts zAff(U0)=zAdapt(U0)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U^0)=z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)zAff​(U0)=zAdapt​(U0) on the grounds that U0\mathcal U^0U0 is a simplex. Its m+1m+1m+1 generators need not be affinely independent, so this equality is not part of the mission; Theorem 6 does not use it.

A bound on zAdapt(U0)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)zAdapt​(U0) alone is not the goal: the goal requires, for each scenario of the original set U\mathcal UU, a feasible second stage completing the fixed first stage x~\tilde xx~ at the stated cost. Lemma 13 also asserts feasibility over U0\mathcal U^0U0 with a finite bound, so its inequality cannot hold through the value of an infimum over an empty set.

A complete development needs elementary facts about convex hulls of finitely many points (representation by convex weights), the properties of Algorithm A\mathcal AA (its output bound and termination, Lemmas 9 and 10 of the paper), and ε\varepsilonε-approximation arguments for infima. The encoding of model (1) and of Algorithm A\mathcal AA is shared with the other missions of this series. Contributions of these supporting lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power of robust solutions in two-stage stochastic and adaptive optimization problems, Math. Oper. Res. 35, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0440
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 3: The Largest Centrally Symmetric Distortion Inner Approximation of a Polytope Solves a Linear ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust linear constraint a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b for all a∈Ua \in \mathcal Ua∈U protects a decision xxx against every realization of the data aaa in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. Robust optimization took this form in the work of Ben-Tal and Nemirovski (Math. Oper. Res. 1998; Oper. Res. Lett. 1999), where U\mathcal UU is chosen by the modeller. Bertsimas and Brown (Oper. Res. 2009) tie the choice of U\mathcal UU to the decision maker's attitude towards risk: on a finite sample A={a1,…,aN}\mathcal A = \{a_1,\dots,a_N\}A={a1​,…,aN​}, a coherent risk measure constraint μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0 is equivalent to a robust constraint over a convex set built from A\mathcal AA, and for the distortion risk measures (the law-invariant, comonotone coherent measures, which include CVaR) that set is a polytope of a special kind, a permutohull.

An uncertainty set in practice is often an arbitrary polyhedron, given by the modeller or by previous analysis. Section 4.5 of the paper asks which distortion risk measure best approximates such a polyhedron from inside: the largest permutohull of a given shape contained in it. A positive answer quantifies how conservative a given polyhedral uncertainty set is relative to a distortion risk measure, and gives the risk measure that is closest to it. This mission is the third of a series of three on the paper; the first establishes the permutohull representation of distortion risk constraints, the second the generators of the centrally symmetric distortion measures.

Setting

Fix N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 and data a1,…,aN∈Rna_1,\dots,a_N \in \mathbb R^na1​,…,aN​∈Rn, the columns of a matrix AAA. Let eN∈RNe_N \in \mathbb R^NeN​∈RN have 1/N1/N1/N at each entry, so the sample mean is a^=AeN\hat a = Ae_Na^=AeN​.

  • The restricted simplex Δ^N\hat\Delta^NΔ^N is the set of probability vectors q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN with q1≥⋯≥qNq_1 \ge \dots \ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​. Under the uniform probability on NNN points, the distortion risk measures are exactly the maps μq(X)=−∑iqix(i)\mu_q(X) = -\sum_i q_i x_{(i)}μq​(X)=−∑i​qi​x(i)​, q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N, with x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)} \le \dots \le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ the ordered values of XXX (Theorem 4.2 of the paper).
  • For q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN, the qqq-permutohull is Πq(A)=conv⁡{∑iqσ(i)ai:σ∈SN}\Pi_q(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\{\sum_i q_{\sigma(i)} a_i : \sigma \in S_N\}Πq​(A)=conv{∑i​qσ(i)​ai​:σ∈SN​}. The robust constraint over Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) is the risk constraint for μq\mu_qμq​.
  • The symmetric restricted simplex Δ^symN\hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}Δ^symN​ is the set of q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N with q=2eN−qσq = 2e_N - q_\sigmaq=2eN​−qσ​ for some permutation σ\sigmaσ, where (qσ)i=qσ(i)(q_\sigma)_i = q_{\sigma(i)}(qσ​)i​=qσ(i)​. For these qqq the permutohull is centrally symmetric about a^\hat aa^.
  • With π~q(A)=Πq(A)−a^\tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A) = \Pi_q(\mathcal A) - \hat aπ~q​(A)=Πq​(A)−a^, the Minkowski functional
∥w∥q,A=inf⁡{α>0:w/α∈π~q(A)}\|w\|_{q,\mathcal A} = \inf\{\alpha > 0 : w/\alpha \in \tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A)\}∥w∥q,A​=inf{α>0:w/α∈π~q​(A)}

measures w=a−a^w = a - \hat aw=a−a^ against the shifted permutohull (12).

  • The polyhedron is U={a∈Rn:uk′a≥vk, k=1,…,m}\mathcal U = \{a \in \mathbb R^n : u_k'a \ge v_k,\ k = 1,\dots,m\}U={a∈Rn:uk′​a≥vk​, k=1,…,m} (14), with a^∈U\hat a \in \mathcal Ua^∈U.

The family of candidate inner approximations is obtained by mixing a fixed q^∈Δ^symN\hat q \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q^​∈Δ^symN​ with the uniform generator: q=λq^+(1−λ)eNq = \lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_Nq=λq^​+(1−λ)eN​, λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5

Let λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ be the optimal value of the linear program

max⁡ λs.t.q=λq^+(1−λ)e/N,e′(sk+tk)≥vk ∀k,sk,i+tk,j≤(uk′aj) qi ∀i,j,k,(15)\max\ \lambda\quad\text{s.t.}\quad q = \lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e/N,\quad e'(s_k + t_k) \ge v_k\ \forall k,\quad s_{k,i} + t_{k,j} \le (u_k'a_j)\,q_i\ \forall i,j,k, \tag{15}max λs.t.q=λq^​+(1−λ)e/N,e′(sk​+tk​)≥vk​ ∀k,sk,i​+tk,j​≤(uk′​aj​)qi​ ∀i,j,k,(15)

in sk,tk,q∈RNs_k, t_k, q \in \mathbb R^Nsk​,tk​,q∈RN and λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R, and q∗=λ∗q^+(1−λ∗)eNq^* = \lambda^*\hat q + (1-\lambda^*)e_Nq∗=λ∗q^​+(1−λ∗)eN​. Then

Πq∗(A)⊆U,Πλq^+(1−λ)eN(A)⊆U  ⟹  Πλq^+(1−λ)eN(A)⊆Πq∗(A),\Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal U,\qquad \Pi_{\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal U \implies \Pi_{\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A),Πq∗​(A)⊆U,Πλq^​+(1−λ)eN​​(A)⊆U⟹Πλq^​+(1−λ)eN​​(A)⊆Πq∗​(A),

and, when q^≠eN\hat q \ne e_Nq^​=eN​, q∗∈Δ^Nq^* \in \hat\Delta^Nq∗∈Δ^N if and only if

λ∗≤11−Nq^min⁡.(16)\lambda^* \le \frac{1}{1 - N\hat q_{\min}}. \tag{16}λ∗≤1−Nq^​min​1​.(16)

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4.2: for q∈Δ^symNq \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q∈Δ^symN​ with Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) of nonempty interior, ∥⋅∥q,A\|\cdot\|_{q,\mathcal A}∥⋅∥q,A​ is a norm.
  2. Scaling (proof of Lemma 4.2): Πλq+(1−λ)eN(A)=a^+λ π~q(A)\Pi_{\lambda q + (1-\lambda)e_N}(\mathcal A) = \hat a + \lambda\,\tilde\pi_q(\mathcal A)Πλq+(1−λ)eN​​(A)=a^+λπ~q​(A) for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN, λ∈R\lambda \in \mathbb Rλ∈R.
  3. Lemma 4.2: ∥a−a^∥λq+(1−λ)eN,A=1∣λ∣∥a−a^∥q,A\|a - \hat a\|_{\lambda q + (1-\lambda)e_N,\mathcal A} = \frac{1}{|\lambda|}\|a - \hat a\|_{q,\mathcal A}∥a−a^∥λq+(1−λ)eN​,A​=∣λ∣1​∥a−a^∥q,A​ for q∈Δ^symNq \in \hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}q∈Δ^symN​, λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0.
  4. Containment as linear constraints (proof of Theorem 4.5): Πq(A)⊆U\Pi_q(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal UΠq​(A)⊆U iff vectors sk,tks_k, t_ksk​,tk​ satisfying the constraints of (15) exist, for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN.
  5. Nonnegativity (proof of Theorem 4.5): for λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and Nq^min⁡<1N\hat q_{\min} < 1Nq^​min​<1, λq^+(1−λ)eN∈Δ^N\lambda\hat q + (1-\lambda)e_N \in \hat\Delta^Nλq^​+(1−λ)eN​∈Δ^N iff λ≤1/(1−Nq^min⁡)\lambda \le 1/(1 - N\hat q_{\min})λ≤1/(1−Nq^​min​).

Significance

The theorem reduces a geometric question — the largest member of a one-parameter family of centrally symmetric polytopes, each with N!N!N! potential vertices, that fits inside an arbitrary polyhedron — to a linear program with O(mN)O(mN)O(mN) variables and O(mN2)O(mN^2)O(mN2) constraints. Its solution identifies a distortion risk measure μ=λ∗μq^+(1−λ∗)E[−X]\mu = \lambda^*\mu_{\hat q} + (1-\lambda^*)\mathbb E[-X]μ=λ∗μq^​​+(1−λ∗)E[−X], which the paper reads as a mean–deviation measure in the style of a Sharpe ratio, and the bound (16) decides whether the optimal set is itself a distortion set or must be shrunk further.

The results are proved in the paper, with short proofs that pass over several points: the scaling identity is asserted, the duality step leaves the assignment-problem structure implicit, and the norm claim requires a nondegeneracy condition that the page does not state. No machine-checked proof of any of them is known. A formalization fixes the exact hypotheses (nonempty interior for the norm, λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0 in (13), q^≠eN\hat q \ne e_Nq^​=eN​ in (16)), and the containment equivalence for arbitrary real weight vectors qqq is a reusable fact about permutohulls and assignment duality.

Difficulty

The goal combines three ingredients of different nature. The containment equivalence needs that minimizing a linear function over the permutohull is a linear program over the Birkhoff polytope of doubly stochastic matrices, followed by linear programming duality for that program; neither the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem nor assignment duality is a one-line consequence of what is in Mathlib. The scaling identity is a statement about convex hulls under an affine map and holds for all real λ\lambdaλ, including the reflected case λ<0\lambda < 0λ<0; the maximality claim then needs the central symmetry of Πq^(A)\Pi_{\hat q}(\mathcal A)Πq^​​(A) about a^\hat aa^, which is a property of Δ^symN\hat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}Δ^symN​ (Proposition 4.1 of the paper) and not of a general qqq. The tempting shortcut — comparing gauges directly — fails at λ=0\lambda = 0λ=0, where the permutohull is the single point a^\hat aa^ and the gauge is degenerate.

Formalization scope

Vectors in RN\mathbb R^NRN and Rn\mathbb R^nRn are Fin N → ℝ and Fin n → ℝ, with 000-based indices; aia_iai​ is a i, uk′au_k'auk′​a is a dot product. Δ^N\hat\Delta^NΔ^N uses Mathlib's stdSimplex and Antitone. The permutohull is convexHull of the range over Equiv.Perm (Fin N), defined for every real qqq because (15) evaluates it at mixtures with possibly negative entries. The Minkowski functional is Mathlib's gauge, which takes the value 000 (not +∞+\infty+∞) on points no positive multiple of the set reaches; this is why Proposition 4.2 assumes Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) has nonempty interior and why the goal states "largest" as set containment. q^min⁡\hat q_{\min}q^​min​ is min⁡iq^i\min_i \hat q_imini​q^​i​. The optimal value λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is a hypothesis (it is the greatest element of the feasible set of (15)), not a supremum defined by sSup.

Standing assumptions and disclosed additions: N≥1N \ge 1N≥1; the polyhedron (14) is not assumed bounded (a generalization); in (13) the right-hand norm is that of qqq, not q~\tilde qq~​ as printed, and λ≠0\lambda \ne 0λ=0; in (16), Nq^min⁡<1N\hat q_{\min} < 1Nq^​min​<1; "corresponds to a distortion risk measure" is read, as the proof reads it, as q∗∈Δ^Nq^* \in \hat\Delta^Nq∗∈Δ^N. A formalization that assumes Πq∗(A)⊆U\Pi_{q^*}(\mathcal A) \subseteq \mathcal UΠq∗​(A)⊆U or the maximality of λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ trivializes the theorem: both are conclusions, and the linear program enters only through its constraints and its optimal value.

A complete development needs: convex hulls under affine maps; the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem (doubly stochastic matrices are convex combinations of permutation matrices); duality for the assignment linear program; gauge calculus for centrally symmetric convex bodies. The containment equivalence and the scaling identity are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and of the Birkhoff and assignment-duality infrastructure, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and D. B. Brown, Constructing uncertainty sets for robust linear optimization, Operations Research 57(6):1483–1495, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0646
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber and D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9(3):203–228, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons 3: With a Discrete Price Set the Two-Price Stopping-Time Heuristic Is Asymptotically OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines, hotels and cruise lines rarely change prices continuously. They sell a fixed product (seats on one flight, rooms on one night) over a finite selling season, and they sell it at a small set of fares, opening and closing fare classes as the season unfolds. Gallego and van Ryzin, in Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons (Management Science 40(8), 1994, doi:10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999), model this as the sale of nnn items over a horizon of length ttt, with Poisson demand whose rate depends on the current price. Section 4 of the paper restricts the price to a finite menu and asks how much is lost by using a simple rule that charges only two adjacent prices and switches once. The answer, Theorem 5, gives one explanation of fixed-fare-class yield management: with two fares and one well-timed switch, a seller earns asymptotically the best revenue any policy over the menu can earn. The source of this mission is the published 1994 article.

The paper is the starting point of a long line of work on fluid (deterministic) approximations in revenue management, including Feng and Gallego (1995) on optimal switching times between two prices and later re-solving and bid-price analyses, all of which compare stochastic policies to the value of a deterministic problem in the same way.

Setting

A menu consists of K≥2K\ge2K≥2 prices p1<p2<⋯<pKp_1<p_2<\dots<p_Kp1​<p2​<⋯<pK​ and Poisson demand rates λ1>λ2>⋯>λK>0\lambda_1>\lambda_2>\dots>\lambda_K>0λ1​>λ2​>⋯>λK​>0; the firm may also charge the null price p∞p_\inftyp∞​, at which demand is 000. The revenue rates rk=pkλkr_k=p_k\lambda_krk​=pk​λk​ satisfy r1>r2>⋯>rKr_1>r_2>\dots>r_Kr1​>r2​>⋯>rK​, and the points (λk,rk)(\lambda_k,r_k)(λk​,rk​) lie on a concave function on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) vanishing at 000.

The deterministic problem replaces random demand by its rate. If tk≥0t_k\ge0tk​≥0 is the time spent at price pkp_kpk​, the problem is the linear program

JD(n,t)=sup⁡{∑krktk: ∑ktk≤t, ∑kλktk≤n, tk≥0}.J^D(n,t)=\sup\Big\{\sum_k r_k t_k:\ \sum_k t_k\le t,\ \sum_k\lambda_k t_k\le n,\ t_k\ge0\Big\}.JD(n,t)=sup{k∑​rk​tk​: k∑​tk​≤t, k∑​λk​tk​≤n, tk​≥0}.

Given n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N and t>0t>0t>0, let k=k∗k=k^*k=k∗ be the index with λkt≥n>λk+1t\lambda_k t\ge n>\lambda_{k+1}tλk​t≥n>λk+1​t, and put

tk=n−λk+1tλk−λk+1,m=⌈λktk⌉,tm=mλk.t_k=\frac{n-\lambda_{k+1}t}{\lambda_k-\lambda_{k+1}},\qquad m=\lceil\lambda_k t_k\rceil,\qquad t_m=\frac{m}{\lambda_k}.tk​=λk​−λk+1​n−λk+1​t​,m=⌈λk​tk​⌉,tm​=λk​m​.

The stopping-time (ST) heuristic starts at price pkp_kpk​ and switches to pk+1p_{k+1}pk+1​ at the random time τ=min⁡(Tm,tm)\tau=\min(T_m,t_m)τ=min(Tm​,tm​), where TmT_mTm​ is the time of the mmm-th demand. Sales stop when the nnn items are gone or at time ttt. JST(n,t)J^{ST}(n,t)JST(n,t) is its expected revenue.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5

For a fixed index kkk with 1≤k≤K−11\le k\le K-11≤k≤K−1 and any sequences nj∈Nn_j\in\mathbb Nnj​∈N, tj→∞t_j\to\inftytj​→∞ with λktj≥nj>λk+1tj\lambda_k t_j\ge n_j>\lambda_{k+1}t_jλk​tj​≥nj​>λk+1​tj​,

lim⁡j→∞JST(nj,tj)JD(nj,tj)=1.\lim_{j\to\infty}\frac{J^{ST}(n_j,t_j)}{J^D(n_j,t_j)}=1.j→∞lim​JD(nj​,tj​)JST(nj​,tj​)​=1.

No rate of convergence is fixed in the goal, and the ratio nj/tjn_j/t_jnj​/tj​ may vary along the sequence.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4. The LP is solved by pricing at pk∗p_{k^*}pk∗​ for time tk∗t_{k^*}tk∗​ and at pk∗+1p_{k^*+1}pk∗+1​ for time tk∗+1=(λk∗t−n)/(λk∗−λk∗+1)t_{k^*+1}=(\lambda_{k^*}t-n)/(\lambda_{k^*}-\lambda_{k^*+1})tk∗+1​=(λk∗​t−n)/(λk∗​−λk∗+1​), together with the edge cases k∗=0k^*=0k∗=0 and k∗=Kk^*=Kk∗=K.
  2. The wasteful heuristic is a lower bound: JW(n,t)≤JST(n,t)J^W(n,t)\le J^{ST}(n,t)JW(n,t)≤JST(n,t), where the wasteful heuristic offers mmm units at pkp_kpk​ during [0,tm][0,t_m][0,tm​] and n−mn-mn−m units at pk+1p_{k+1}pk+1​ afterwards.
  3. Equation (28): the shrunk horizon t′=tm+(n−m)/λk+1t'=t_m+(n-m)/\lambda_{k+1}t′=tm​+(n−m)/λk+1​ satisfies t−(λk−λk+1)/(λkλk+1)<t′≤tt-(\lambda_k-\lambda_{k+1})/(\lambda_k\lambda_{k+1})<t'\le tt−(λk​−λk+1​)/(λk​λk+1​)<t′≤t.
  4. The closed form of JDJ^DJD and JD(n,t)<JD(n,t′)+(pk+1−pk)J^D(n,t)<J^D(n,t')+(p_{k+1}-p_k)JD(n,t)<JD(n,t′)+(pk+1​−pk​).
  5. Equation (29): JST(n,t)/JD(n,t)≥JW(n,t)/JD(n,t)≥JW(n,t′)/(JD(n,t′)+(pk+1−pk))J^{ST}(n,t)/J^D(n,t)\ge J^W(n,t)/J^D(n,t)\ge J^W(n,t')/(J^D(n,t')+(p_{k+1}-p_k))JST(n,t)/JD(n,t)≥JW(n,t)/JD(n,t)≥JW(n,t′)/(JD(n,t′)+(pk+1​−pk​)).
  6. The wasteful bound: JW(n,t′)≥pk[m−12m]+pk+1[(n−m)−12n−m]J^W(n,t')\ge p_k[m-\tfrac12\sqrt m]+p_{k+1}[(n-m)-\tfrac12\sqrt{n-m}]JW(n,t′)≥pk​[m−21​m​]+pk+1​[(n−m)−21​n−m​] and JW(n,t′)/JD(n,t′)≥1−12(1/m+1/n−m)J^W(n,t')/J^D(n,t')\ge1-\tfrac12(1/\sqrt m+1/\sqrt{n-m})JW(n,t′)/JD(n,t′)≥1−21​(1/m​+1/n−m​).

Significance

Theorem 5 says that a policy with one price change, chosen from the deterministic solution, loses a vanishing fraction of the deterministic revenue. Since JDJ^DJD bounds the optimal expected revenue over all non-anticipating policies with prices in the menu (§4.0.1 of the paper), the ST heuristic is asymptotically optimal, and the optimal policy, which solves a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman system with no closed form, can be replaced by a rule that is computed by hand. The result also shows that a finite menu, together with dynamic allocation of capacity between two neighbouring prices, can realize the effective price of a continuous demand curve.

The theorem is proved in the paper. As far as the platform's index shows, neither this result nor the controlled Poisson sales process it needs has been formalized; Mathlib has the exponential and Poisson distributions but no counting process with a policy-dependent intensity. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the paper's proof chain: the LP solution, the coupling inequality between two heuristics, the deterministic horizon estimate (28), and the Poisson overflow estimate built on Gallego's bound (inequality (18) of the paper, already proved on the platform as PricingRM.DetHeuristic.gallego_bound).

Difficulty

The deterministic parts (Proposition 4, (28), the closed form of JDJ^DJD) are finite-dimensional linear algebra. The difficulty sits in the stochastic comparison JW≤JSTJ^W\le J^{ST}JW≤JST. The ST heuristic's switching time depends on the sales process, and after the switch the remaining stock and the remaining time are both random. The obvious attempt, writing JSTJ^{ST}JST as a sum of two independent Poisson terms, is wrong: the two phases are dependent through τ\tauτ. Any comparison has to handle a second phase whose starting stock and starting time are both random, which brings in the behaviour of the sales process after a random time determined by the process itself. The limit step then needs the overflow bound uniformly along sequences whose ratio n/tn/tn/t is not fixed.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace GVRPricing.StoppingTime. The committed conventions are:

  • Indices are 0-based (Fin K): Lean index kkk is the paper's price number k+1k+1k+1, and lamN, pN, rN extend the sequences by 000 beyond KKK, matching the paper's λK+1=rK+1=0\lambda_{K+1}=r_{K+1}=0λK+1​=rK+1​=0.
  • The menu carries the printed conditions plus an added concavity condition: the points (λk,rk)(\lambda_k,r_k)(λk​,rk​) lie on a concave function vanishing at 000. This is the reading of §4's "corresponding to price pkp_kpk​, we have a known demand rate λk\lambda_kλk​" for a regular demand function with concave revenue rate. Without it Proposition 4 and Theorem 5 are false: the menu λ=(3,2,1)\lambda=(3,2,1)λ=(3,2,1), p=(1,1.01,1.5)p=(1,1.01,1.5)p=(1,1.01,1.5) meets every printed condition, but at t=1t=1t=1, n=1.5n=1.5n=1.5 Proposition 4's allocation earns 1.761.761.76 while a feasible mix of p1p_1p1​ and p3p_3p3​ earns 1.8751.8751.875, and the ST ratio tends to about 0.9390.9390.939.
  • JDJ^DJD is defined directly as the LP value; the reduction from the rate-path problem (11) is the paper's assertion and is not formalized.
  • The sales process is built from nnn i.i.d. standard exponential clocks by the time change of the ST policy's cumulative intensity, so at most nnn items are sold. Time is elapsed time from 000. JSTJ^{ST}JST is the expectation of the sum of prices charged at sales in [0,t][0,t][0,t], a lower Lebesgue integral of a bounded nonnegative function.
  • JWJ^WJW is the paper's two-Poisson formula of p. 1018.
  • J∗J^*J∗ is not defined, so the left ratio of (29) uses JDJ^DJD in place of J∗J^*J∗ (a stronger inequality, since J∗≤JDJ^*\le J^DJ∗≤JD), and the §4.0.1 upper bound J∗≤JDJ^*\le J^DJ∗≤JD is not a milestone.
  • Corrected slips: the page prints tn−m≐n−m/λk+1t_{n-m}\doteq n-m/\lambda_{k+1}tn−m​≐n−m/λk+1​ for (n−m)/λk+1(n-m)/\lambda_{k+1}(n−m)/λk+1​; the wasteful bound is stated at the shrunk horizon t′t't′, where its integrality assumptions hold exactly, instead of along the paper's subsequence; the ratio bound assumes m<nm<nm<n, since 1/n−m1/\sqrt{n-m}1/n−m​ is undefined otherwise. Proposition 4 is stated as optimality, without the uniqueness that fails when three menu points are collinear.
  • Excluded: the edge cases k∗=0k^*=0k∗=0 and k∗=Kk^*=Kk∗=K of Theorem 5, treated on the page only in an unproved remark.

A trivializing formalization would define JSTJ^{ST}JST through the wasteful formula, or by a closed-form expression, which makes the goal the wasteful bound; here JSTJ^{ST}JST is the expected revenue of the switching rule τ=min⁡(Tm,tm)\tau=\min(T_m,t_m)τ=min(Tm​,tm​) on the sales process. Likewise the limit is taken along sequences with tj→∞t_j\to\inftytj​→∞, not at a single (n,t)(n,t)(n,t).

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: the exponential-clock construction of a Poisson process with piecewise-constant intensity, the strong Markov property at a stopping time of the clocks, and the expected Poisson overflow E(Nμ−μ)+\mathbb E(N_\mu-\mu)^+E(Nμ​−μ)+. Contributions to any milestone, and alternative proofs of JW≤JSTJ^W\le J^{ST}JW≤JST, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8), 999–1020, 1994. doi:10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • G. Gallego, A Minmax Distribution Free Procedure for the (Q, R) Inventory Model, Operations Research Letters 11, 55–60, 1992 (the source of inequality (18)).
  • Y. Feng, G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995.
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1980 (as cited in the source).
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On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence 4: Orthogonal Subspaces Have Dual MatroidsResearch Paper

Motivation

Hassler Whitney introduced matroids in On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence (Amer. J. Math. 57, 1935, doi:10.2307/2371182) to capture what linear dependence among the columns of a matrix and the circuit structure of a graph have in common. One of the central constructions of the paper is duality. For graphs, duality exists only for planar graphs (Whitney, Non-separable and planar graphs, Trans. AMS 34, 1932); for matroids Whitney showed that every matroid has a dual, and that duality has a direct linear-algebra model: the matroid of a subspace of Rn\mathbb R^nRn and the matroid of its orthogonal complement are duals.

Matroid duality underlies much of combinatorial optimization: the duality between cycles and cuts in graphs, the relation between a linear code and its dual code, the exchange of rank and corank in matroid intersection and partition, and the treatment of network flows as duals of potential problems. Whitney's §§11–13 are where this structure is first defined and where its linear-algebra meaning (Theorem 28) is established.

Setting

A matroid MMM is a finite set of elements e1,…,ene_1,\dots,e_ne1​,…,en​ with a rank function rrr on its subsets; equivalently, a family of independent sets, or of bases (maximal independent sets). For a subset NNN write ρ(N)\rho(N)ρ(N) for its number of elements and

n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N)n(N) = \rho(N) - r(N)n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N)

for its nullity; r(M)r(M)r(M) and n(M)n(M)n(M) are the rank and nullity of the whole set of elements.

Duality (§11). Let MMM and M′M'M′ be matroids and σ\sigmaσ a one-to-one correspondence between their elements. M′M'M′ is a dual of MMM (via σ\sigmaσ) if, for every subset NNN of MMM, with N′N'N′ the complement in M′M'M′ of σ(N)\sigma(N)σ(N),

r(N′)=r(M′)−n(N).(11.1)r(N') = r(M') - n(N). \tag{11.1}r(N′)=r(M′)−n(N).(11.1)

The matroid of a subspace (§12). Let EnE_nEn​ be nnn-dimensional Euclidean space with coordinates x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​, and let HHH be a hyperplane through the origin, which in Whitney's usage is a linear subspace of any dimension. For a set SSS of coordinates, project HHH onto the coordinate subspace ES′E'_SES′​ spanned by the axes xix_ixi​, i∈Si\in Si∈S. The matroid associated with HHH has elements e1,…,ene_1,\dots,e_ne1​,…,en​, one per coordinate, and gives the set {ei:i∈S}\{e_i: i\in S\}{ei​:i∈S} the rank

rH(S)=dim⁡πS(H).r_H(S) = \dim \pi_S(H).rH​(S)=dimπS​(H).

If HHH is the row space of a matrix M\mathbf MM, then rH(S)r_H(S)rH​(S) is the rank of the columns of M\mathbf MM indexed by SSS, so the associated matroid is the column matroid of M\mathbf MM.

In the Lean development these objects are WhitneyMatroid.Components.nullity (shared), IsDualVia M M' σ, IsDual M M', subspaceRank H S and IsAssociated M H.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 28

Let HHH be a subspace of EnE_nEn​ and H′=H⊥H' = H^\perpH′=H⊥ its orthogonal complement. If MMM and M′M'M′ are the matroids associated with HHH and H′H'H′, then MMM and M′M'M′ are duals under the correspondence of equal coordinates:

∀N⊆{e1,…,en}:rM′(N‾)=r(M′)−nM(N).\forall N\subseteq\{e_1,\dots,e_n\}:\qquad r_{M'}(\overline N) = r(M') - n_M(N).∀N⊆{e1​,…,en​}:rM′​(N)=r(M′)−nM​(N).

Milestones

  1. Theorem 27. For every subspace HHH there is exactly one matroid associated with HHH.
  2. Theorem 6 (already proved on the platform). All bases have the same number of elements.
  3. Theorem 7. BBB is a base iff r(B)=r(M)r(B)=r(M)r(B)=r(M) and n(B)=0n(B)=0n(B)=0.
  4. Theorem 8. If BBB is a base and NNN is independent, then N∪N′N\cup N'N∪N′ is a base for some N′⊆BN'\subseteq BN′⊆B.
  5. Theorem 20. If M′M'M′ is a dual of MMM, then r(M′)=n(M)r(M') = n(M)r(M′)=n(M) and n(M′)=r(M)n(M') = r(M)n(M′)=r(M).
  6. Theorem 23. M′M'M′ is a dual of MMM via σ\sigmaσ iff, for every BBB, BBB is a base of MMM exactly when the complement of σ(B)\sigma(B)σ(B) is a base of M′M'M′.
  7. Theorem 21. Duality is symmetric.
  8. Theorem 22. Every matroid has a dual.

Significance

The result. Theorem 28 identifies abstract duality with orthogonal complementation. With Theorem 23 it says that the column matroid of a real matrix whose rows span HHH and the column matroid of a matrix whose rows span H⊥H^\perpH⊥ have complementary bases. This is the basis of the standard representation of the dual of a represented matroid ([Ir∣A][I_r\mid A][Ir​∣A] and [−AT∣In−r][-A^{\mathsf T}\mid I_{n-r}][−AT∣In−r​]), of the cycle/cocycle duality of graphs viewed through incidence matrices, and of the fact that a matroid representable over a field has a dual representable over the same field. Theorems 20–23 are the basic facts every later treatment of matroid duality starts from: duality exchanges rank and nullity, is symmetric, always exists, and is characterized by base complements.

Formalizing it. All of these results are classical and proved in Whitney's paper; what this mission adds is a machine-checked development of Whitney's own definition of duality, the rank identity (11.1), rather than the base-complement definition used in modern libraries. Mathlib defines the dual matroid M∗M^*M∗ by base complements and proves that it is a matroid; it does not, at the pinned revision, contain the rank formula (11.1) for M∗M^*M∗, the matroid of a real subspace, or Theorem 28. Theorem 6 is already proved on the platform and enters as a reference. Theorems 7 and 8 are close to Mathlib lemmas and are footholds rather than new content.

Difficulty

The difficulty of the goal is not in the combinatorics but in the passage between the two descriptions of a subspace. The natural first idea is to compare the ranks rH(S)r_H(S)rH​(S) and rH⊥(S‾)r_{H^\perp}(\overline S)rH⊥​(S) directly by counting dimensions of HHH and H⊥H^\perpH⊥. This does not close: rH(S)r_H(S)rH​(S) is the dimension of a projection of HHH onto coordinates, while dim⁡H⊥=n−dim⁡H\dim H^\perp = n - \dim HdimH⊥=n−dimH only controls H⊥H^\perpH⊥ as a whole, and the rank of a complementary coordinate set in M′M'M′ is not determined by the dimensions of HHH and H⊥H^\perpH⊥ alone. Some relation between coordinate projections of HHH and the structure of H⊥H^\perpH⊥ on the complementary coordinates has to be established. Theorem 27 is itself nontrivial in Lean: the rank function rHr_HrH​ has to be shown to satisfy the matroid axioms, which needs a careful treatment of coordinate projections and of submodularity of dimension. On the abstract side, Theorem 23 needs both directions of the passage between the rank identity and base complements, including the counting step r(M)+r(M′)=ρ(M)r(M) + r(M') = \rho(M)r(M)+r(M′)=ρ(M).

Formalization scope

  • Matroids are Mathlib Matroid α on a finite type α whose ground set is all of α (Whitney's matroid is its finite set of elements). This finiteness and the ground set convention are part of the definitions; all theorems are stated under them.
  • Ranks and nullities. Ranks are Mathlib's eRk, finite on a finite type and converted to integers; the nullity n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N)n(N)=\rho(N)-r(N)n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N) and the identity (11.1) are computed in Z\mathbb ZZ. No truncated subtraction appears.
  • Duality is Whitney's rank identity (11.1) for every subset, for a fixed bijection σ : α ≃ β (IsDualVia) or some bijection (IsDual). It is deliberately not defined as Mathlib's M✶: with that definition Theorem 23 would be nearly definitional and Theorem 28 would lose the rank identity. A formalization that replaces (11.1) by the base-complement condition, or states Theorem 28 only for bases, is not this mission's goal.
  • Euclidean space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with its standard inner product; the orthogonal hyperplane is Hᗮ. The field is R\mathbb RR, as in the paper; the analogous statement over other fields with the dot-product annihilator is a generalization and not part of this mission.
  • The associated matroid is a predicate (IsAssociated M H): ground set Fin n, and the rank of every set SSS of coordinates equals the finrank of the image of HHH under the coordinate projection onto SSS (not of H∩ES′H\cap E'_SH∩ES′​, a different set function). Existence and uniqueness is Theorem 27.
  • Implicit hypotheses made explicit: the ground sets are finite and equal to the whole element type; Whitney's "dimension rrr" and "dimension n−rn-rn−r" in Theorem 28 are consequences of H′=H⊥H'=H^\perpH′=H⊥ and are not hypotheses. The goal covers n=0n=0n=0, H={0}H=\{0\}H={0} and H=EnH=E_nH=En​.
  • Infrastructure needed and reusable: the matroid of a real subspace (equivalently the column matroid of a real matrix), with its rank function in terms of coordinate projections; the rank formula of the dual matroid; the dimension identity relating projections of HHH and sections of H⊥H^\perpH⊥. All are reusable for the other missions of this series (the Fano matroid and binary matroids) and for any later work on represented matroids. Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of Theorem 28 through Mathlib's M✶, and supporting lemmas on coordinate projections are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Whitney, On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence, American Journal of Mathematics 57 (1935), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.2307/2371182
  • H. Whitney, Non-separable and planar graphs, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 34 (1932), 339–362. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1932-1501641-2
  • J. Oxley, Matroid Theory, 2nd ed., Oxford Graduate Texts in Mathematics 21, Oxford University Press, 2011, Chapter 2 (duality). https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566946.001.0001
  • Mathlib, Mathlib.Combinatorics.Matroid (Dual, Rank). https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib4
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Robust Solutions of Uncertain Linear Programs II: With Ellipsoidal Uncertainty the Robust Counterpart Is Equivalent to a Conic Quadratic ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

The data of a linear program are often not known exactly: they are measured or estimated, or they are forecasts. The robust counterpart approach, going back to Soyster (1973), asks for a solution that is feasible for every data matrix in a prescribed uncertainty set and is best among such solutions. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski's 1999 paper [1] showed that the method stays computationally tractable for a broad class of uncertainty sets, the ellipsoidal uncertainties: the robust counterpart of an uncertain LP is then a conic quadratic program (CQP), solvable by interior point methods at roughly the cost of an LP of similar size. This result is the basis of robust linear optimization as it is used today [2], [3]. It is also the reason ellipsoidal sets are the default choice in robust portfolio selection (§4 of the paper) and in many later robust models.

Timeline. Soyster (1973) treated column-wise box uncertainty, for which the counterpart is again an LP [4]. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski (1998) developed the general theory of robust convex optimization [5]. The present paper (1999) proved the ellipsoidal-to-CQP reduction for LPs (Theorem 3.1). Its proof relies on the conic duality theory of Nesterov and Nemirovski (1994) [6].

Setting

An uncertain linear program in the homogeneous form (6) is

min⁡{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},\min\{c^Tx \mid Ax \ge 0,\ f^Tx = 1\},min{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},

where c,f∈Rnc, f \in \mathbb R^nc,f∈Rn are fixed and the matrix A∈Rm×nA \in \mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n lies in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. A point xxx is robust feasible if fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1 and Ax≥0Ax \ge 0Ax≥0 for every A∈UA \in \mathcal UA∈U. The robust counterpart (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) minimizes cTxc^TxcTx over the robust feasible set

GU={x∣Ax≥0 ∀A∈U, fTx=1}.G_{\mathcal U} = \{x \mid Ax \ge 0\ \forall A \in \mathcal U,\ f^Tx = 1\}.GU​={x∣Ax≥0 ∀A∈U, fTx=1}.

An ellipsoid in Rm×n\mathbb R^{m\times n}Rm×n (display (14)) is a set

U(Π,Q)={Π(u)∣∥Qu∥≤1},U(\Pi, Q) = \{\Pi(u) \mid \|Qu\| \le 1\},U(Π,Q)={Π(u)∣∥Qu∥≤1},

where Π(u)=P0+∑j=1LujPj\Pi(u) = P^0 + \sum_{j=1}^L u_jP^jΠ(u)=P0+∑j=1L​uj​Pj is affine in u∈RLu \in \mathbb R^Lu∈RL, QQQ is an M×LM\times LM×L matrix, and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm. A singular QQQ gives an ellipsoidal cylinder, which may be unbounded. An ellipsoidal uncertainty is a set

U=⋂ℓ=0kU(Πℓ,Qℓ)\mathcal U = \bigcap_{\ell=0}^k U(\Pi_\ell, Q_\ell)U=ℓ=0⋂k​U(Πℓ​,Qℓ​)

(condition A) that is bounded (condition B) and contains a matrix AAA with A=Πℓ(uℓ)A = \Pi_\ell(u^\ell)A=Πℓ​(uℓ) and ∥Qℓuℓ∥<1\|Q_\ell u^\ell\| < 1∥Qℓ​uℓ∥<1 for every ℓ\ellℓ (condition C, a Slater condition).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

For every x∈Rnx \in \mathbb R^nx∈Rn,

x∈GU  ⟺  fTx=1  and  ∀i≤m  ∃ λ(i),μ(i),ν(i): (x,λ(i),μ(i),ν(i)) satisfies (Ci).x \in G_{\mathcal U} \iff f^Tx = 1 \ \text{ and }\ \forall i \le m\ \ \exists\, \lambda^{(i)}, \mu^{(i)}, \nu^{(i)} :\ (x, \lambda^{(i)}, \mu^{(i)}, \nu^{(i)}) \text{ satisfies } (\mathcal C_i).x∈GU​⟺fTx=1  and  ∀i≤m  ∃λ(i),μ(i),ν(i): (x,λ(i),μ(i),ν(i)) satisfies (Ci​).

Here (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) is an explicit system: linear equations and one linear inequality in (x,λ,μ,ν)(x, \lambda, \mu, \nu)(x,λ,μ,ν), together with the second-order cone constraints ∥μℓ(i)∥≤νℓ(i)\|\mu^{(i)}_\ell\| \le \nu^{(i)}_\ell∥μℓ(i)​∥≤νℓ(i)​. Its coefficients are the matrices PℓjP^j_\ellPℓj​ and QℓQ_\ellQℓ​. The robust feasible set is therefore the projection of the feasible set of the conic quadratic program (CQP), which minimizes cTxc^TxcTx subject to (C1),…,(Cm)(\mathcal C_1), \dots, (\mathcal C_m)(C1​),…,(Cm​) and fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1.

Milestones, in the order of the Appendix's proof

  1. U\mathcal UU equals the image of the feasible set of the problem (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) under u↦Π0(u0)u \mapsto \Pi_0(u^0)u↦Π0​(u0) (p. 15).
  2. Claim (I): with fTx=1f^Tx = 1fTx=1, xxx is robust feasible iff every (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) has nonnegative optimal value (p. 15).
  3. Claim (II): conic quadratic duality. A strictly feasible primal that is bounded below has a solvable dual with equal optimal value (p. 15).
  4. Conditions B and C make every (Pi[x])(P_i[x])(Pi​[x]) strictly feasible and bounded below (p. 16).

Companion results

The CQP forms (16) and (17) of the simplest cases (a single ellipsoid; constraint-wise ellipsoids), Remark 3.1 (bounded polytopes are ellipsoidal uncertainties), and the robust portfolio counterpart (22).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.1 turns a semi-infinite constraint system (one constraint for every A∈UA \in \mathcal UA∈U) into finitely many conic quadratic constraints whose size is polynomial in the data. Robust LPs with ellipsoidal uncertainty, which by Remark 3.1 include polytopic uncertainty, can therefore be solved by standard conic solvers. Later robust optimization results, such as budgeted uncertainty, affinely adjustable policies and distributionally robust LPs, refine this pattern.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and its proof is complete, but no machine-checked proof exists. A formal proof needs a conic quadratic strong duality theorem with dual attainment (claim (II)), which Mathlib does not have in this form. That duality theorem can be reused well beyond this mission. The companion results (16), (17) and (22) are self-contained computations of a minimum of a linear function over a Euclidean ball.

Difficulty

The "if" direction is weak duality: a solution of (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) certifies that the iii-th constraint holds for all of U\mathcal UU. The content is the "only if" direction. It requires dual attainment, not merely equality of optimal values, because a solution of (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) must exist. Dual attainment fails without a constraint qualification. Condition C must hold strictly for every ellipsoid, including ℓ=0\ell = 0ℓ=0, and the ellipsoids may be cylinders, so the variables uℓu^\elluℓ can range over unbounded sets even though U\mathcal UU is bounded. Projecting the problem onto a single parameter space is not available in general, because the maps Πℓ\Pi_\ellΠℓ​ need not be injective.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. The indices ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k are Fin (k + 1), and the kkk equality multipliers λℓ\lambda_\ellλℓ​, ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1, are indexed by Fin k. Every norm is Euclidean, written out as euclidNorm v = √(∑ v_j²), because Mathlib's norm on Fin M → ℝ is the sup norm, under which ellipsoids would become boxes. Condition B is a uniform bound on all matrix entries, and condition C is required for every ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k. The page's words say "ℓ=1,…,k\ell = 1, \dots, kℓ=1,…,k", but its display and the proof use every ℓ\ellℓ. Injectivity of Πℓ\Pi_\ellΠℓ​ is not assumed, and neither is §2.1's standing assumption that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed. An ellipsoidal uncertainty is convex automatically, and closedness is not used, so both omissions generalize the statement. Three printed slips are corrected and disclosed: the sum in the equality constraint of (CQPd_dd​) runs over ℓ=0,…,k\ell = 0, \dots, kℓ=0,…,k; (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) has φ(i)[x]\varphi^{(i)}[x]φ(i)[x] where the page prints f(i)[x]f^{(i)}[x]f(i)[x]; and Remark 3.1 has the factor 2/(ri−si)2/(r_i - s_i)2/(ri​−si​) where the page prints (ri−si)/2(r_i - s_i)/2(ri​−si​)/2.

The goal is not the contentless statement "some conic quadratic program has GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ as a projection", which holds for every closed convex set. It names the system (Ci)(\mathcal C_i)(Ci​) built from the data PℓjP^j_\ellPℓj​, QℓQ_\ellQℓ​. The goal also does not mention optimal values, (CQPp_pp​) or strict feasibility; those are milestones.

Contributions are welcome on the conic duality theorem (II) as a standalone result, on the finite-dimensional facts that minimize a linear function over a Euclidean ball (used in (16), (17) and (22)), and on the goal itself.

Selected references

  1. A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  2. A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  3. D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, C. Caramanis, Theory and applications of robust optimization, SIAM Review 53(3):464–501, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1137/080734510
  4. A. L. Soyster, Convex programming with set-inclusive constraints and applications to inexact linear programming, Operations Research 21(5):1154–1157, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1154
  5. A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  6. Yu. Nesterov, A. Nemirovski, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM Studies in Applied Mathematics 13, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970791
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Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 1: A Distortion Risk Constraint Equals a Robust Constraint over a Permutohull and an Explicit Linear SystemResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust linear optimization replaces an uncertain constraint a~′x≥b\tilde a'x \ge ba~′x≥b by the requirement that a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b hold for every aaa in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski 1999). The method leaves open where U\mathcal UU should come from. Risk theory answers a related question from the other side: a decision maker's attitude to an uncertain reward is described by a risk measure μ\muμ, and the constraint is imposed as μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0.

Bertsimas and Brown (2009) connect the two. When μ\muμ is coherent and a~\tilde aa~ is supported on finitely many observed data points a1,…,aNa_1, \dots, a_Na1​,…,aN​, the risk constraint is exactly a robust constraint whose uncertainty set is built from the data and the family of probability vectors generating μ\muμ. For the class of distortion risk measures, the uncertainty set has an explicit polyhedral form, the qqq-permutohull of the data, and the robust constraint has a reformulation of polynomial size. This mission formalizes that chain of results, Sections 2–4.3 of the paper.

Setting

The sample space is finite, Ω={ω1,…,ωN}\Omega = \{\omega_1, \dots, \omega_N\}Ω={ω1​,…,ωN​}, and a random variable is a vector X∈RNX \in \mathbb R^NX∈RN, read as a reward; X≥YX \ge YX≥Y means Xi≥YiX_i \ge Y_iXi​≥Yi​ for every iii. The probability simplex is ΔN={p∈R+N:e′p=1}\Delta^N = \{p \in \mathbb R^N_+ : e'p = 1\}ΔN={p∈R+N​:e′p=1}, and Eq[X]=∑iqiXi\mathbb E_q[X] = \sum_i q_i X_iEq​[X]=∑i​qi​Xi​.

A risk measure is a function μ:RN→R\mu : \mathbb R^N \to \mathbb Rμ:RN→R with X≥Y⇒μ(X)≤μ(Y)X \ge Y \Rightarrow \mu(X) \le \mu(Y)X≥Y⇒μ(X)≤μ(Y) and μ(X+c)=μ(X)−c\mu(X + c) = \mu(X) - cμ(X+c)=μ(X)−c. It is coherent if it is moreover convex and positively homogeneous. A set Q⊆ΔN\mathcal Q \subseteq \Delta^NQ⊆ΔN generates μ\muμ if μ(X)=sup⁡q∈QEq[−X]\mu(X) = \sup_{q \in \mathcal Q} \mathbb E_q[-X]μ(X)=supq∈Q​Eq​[−X] for all XXX. The conditional value-at-risk under a probability vector ppp is CVaRα(X)=inf⁡ν∈R{ν+1αEp[(−ν−X)+]}\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X) = \inf_{\nu \in \mathbb R}\{\nu + \frac1\alpha \mathbb E_p[(-\nu - X)^+]\}CVaRα​(X)=infν∈R​{ν+α1​Ep​[(−ν−X)+]} for α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1].

Two random variables are comonotone if (X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0(X(\omega) - X(\omega'))(Y(\omega) - Y(\omega')) \ge 0(X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0 for all ω,ω′\omega, \omega'ω,ω′; μ\muμ is comonotonic if it is additive on comonotone pairs, and law invariant if it takes equal values on random variables with the same distribution. A distortion risk measure is a coherent, comonotonic, law-invariant risk measure. From Section 4.2 on, Ω\OmegaΩ carries the uniform distribution P{ωi}=1/N\mathbb P\{\omega_i\} = 1/NP{ωi​}=1/N.

The restricted simplex is Δ^N={q∈ΔN:q1≥⋯≥qN}\hat\Delta^N = \{q \in \Delta^N : q_1 \ge \cdots \ge q_N\}Δ^N={q∈ΔN:q1​≥⋯≥qN​}. For q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N put

μq(X)=−∑i=1Nqix(i),\mu_q(X) = -\sum_{i=1}^N q_i x_{(i)},μq​(X)=−i=1∑N​qi​x(i)​,

where x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)} \le \cdots \le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ are the increasing order statistics of XXX. The data are A={a1,…,aN}⊆Rn\mathcal A = \{a_1, \dots, a_N\} \subseteq \mathbb R^nA={a1​,…,aN​}⊆Rn, the uncertain vector a~\tilde aa~ takes the value aia_iai​ at ωi\omega_iωi​, and the qqq-permutohull of A\mathcal AA is

Πq(A)=conv⁡{∑i=1Nqσ(i)ai:σ∈SN}.\Pi_q(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\Big\{\sum_{i=1}^N q_{\sigma(i)} a_i : \sigma \in S_N\Big\}.Πq​(A)=conv{i=1∑N​qσ(i)​ai​:σ∈SN​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.3

Under the uniform distribution, for every distortion risk measure μ\muμ there is q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N with μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​, and for this qqq, all data and every bbb,

{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈Πq(A)}={x:∃y1,y2∈RN, e′y1+e′y2≥b, y1,i+y2,j≤qi aj′x ∀i,j}.\{x : \mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0\} = \{x : a'x \ge b\ \forall a \in \Pi_q(\mathcal A)\} = \{x : \exists y_1, y_2 \in \mathbb R^N,\ e'y_1 + e'y_2 \ge b,\ y_{1,i} + y_{2,j} \le q_i\, a_j'x\ \forall i, j\}.{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈Πq​(A)}={x:∃y1​,y2​∈RN, e′y1​+e′y2​≥b, y1,i​+y2,j​≤qi​aj′​x ∀i,j}.

The vector qqq depends on μ\muμ only; the data are quantified after it.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1. μ\muμ is coherent if and only if some family Q⊆ΔN\mathcal Q \subseteq \Delta^NQ⊆ΔN generates it.
  2. Theorem 3.1. For coherent μ\muμ generated by Q\mathcal QQ, {x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈conv⁡{Aq:q∈Q}}\{x : \mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0\} = \{x : a'x \ge b\ \forall a \in \operatorname{conv}\{Aq : q \in \mathcal Q\}\}{x:μ(a~′x−b)≤0}={x:a′x≥b ∀a∈conv{Aq:q∈Q}}; conversely every nonempty U⊆conv⁡(A)\mathcal U \subseteq \operatorname{conv}(\mathcal A)U⊆conv(A) arises from the coherent measure generated by {q∈ΔN:Aq∈U}\{q \in \Delta^N : Aq \in \mathcal U\}{q∈ΔN:Aq∈U}.
  3. Generation of (4). μq\mu_qμq​ is generated by the permuted vectors q∘σq \circ \sigmaq∘σ, σ∈SN\sigma \in S_Nσ∈SN​.
  4. Theorem 4.1 (Schmeidler). A coherent μ\muμ is comonotonic if and only if μ(X)=∫(−X) dg\mu(X) = \int (-X)\,dgμ(X)=∫(−X)dg (Choquet integral) for a monotone, normalized, submodular g:2Ω→[0,1]g : 2^\Omega \to [0,1]g:2Ω→[0,1].
  5. Second differences (proof of Lemma 4.1). A submodular ggg depending only on ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ has nonincreasing increments along ∅⊂{ω1}⊂{ω1,ω2}⊂⋯\emptyset \subset \{\omega_1\} \subset \{\omega_1, \omega_2\} \subset \cdots∅⊂{ω1​}⊂{ω1​,ω2​}⊂⋯.
  6. Lemma 4.1. A risk measure is a distortion risk measure if and only if μ(X)=∫(0,1]CVaRα(X) ν(dα)\mu(X) = \int_{(0,1]} \mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X)\,\nu(d\alpha)μ(X)=∫(0,1]​CVaRα​(X)ν(dα) for a probability measure ν\nuν.
  7. The CVaR display (proof of Theorem 4.2). CVaRα(X)=sup⁡{Eq[−X]:q∈ΔN, qi≤1/(Nα)}=μqα(X)\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha(X) = \sup\{\mathbb E_q[-X] : q \in \Delta^N,\ q_i \le 1/(N\alpha)\} = \mu_{q^\alpha}(X)CVaRα​(X)=sup{Eq​[−X]:q∈ΔN, qi​≤1/(Nα)}=μqα​(X) with qα∈Δ^Nq^\alpha \in \hat\Delta^Nqα∈Δ^N.
  8. Theorem 4.2. A risk measure is a distortion risk measure if and only if μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ for some q∈Δ^Nq \in \hat\Delta^Nq∈Δ^N; every such qqq is a convex combination of the generators q^j\hat q^jq^​j of CVaRj/N\mathrm{CVaR}_{j/N}CVaRj/N​.
  9. Assignment duality (proof of Theorem 4.3). a′x≥ba'x \ge ba′x≥b on Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) if and only if the linear system in (y1,y2)(y_1, y_2)(y1​,y2​) above is feasible.

A companion item states Corollary 4.3: Π∑jλjq^j(A)=conv⁡{∑jλj1j∑i≤jaσj(i):σj∈SN}\Pi_{\sum_j \lambda_j \hat q^j}(\mathcal A) = \operatorname{conv}\{\sum_j \lambda_j \frac1j \sum_{i \le j} a_{\sigma_j(i)} : \sigma_j \in S_N\}Π∑j​λj​q^​j​(A)=conv{∑j​λj​j1​∑i≤j​aσj​(i)​:σj​∈SN​}, and the class equality it yields: the uncertainty sets Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) of all distortion risk measures μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ are exactly the polytopes Uλ(A)\mathcal U_\lambda(\mathcal A)Uλ​(A), λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0, ∑jλj=1\sum_j \lambda_j = 1∑j​λj​=1.

Significance

The goal theorem identifies the uncertainty set implied by any distortion risk measure: it is a permutohull of the data, a polytope with up to N!N!N! vertices that is nevertheless representable with 2N2N2N extra variables and N2N^2N2 linear constraints. Combined with Theorem 4.2, the uncertainty sets of distortion measures are exactly the mixtures of the sets of jjj-point averages of the data (Corollary 4.3), with CVaRj/N\mathrm{CVaR}_{j/N}CVaRj/N​ as the generators. The later sections of the paper build on this: centrally symmetric permutohulls (Section 4.4) and the construction of a distortion risk measure from a given polyhedral uncertainty set (Section 4.5) are the subjects of the two companion missions.

The results are proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known. The formalization adds checked statements of the finite-space representation theory of coherent and distortion risk measures, which the paper obtains partly by citing general results, and records the corrections the printed statements need.

Difficulty

The two equalities of the goal have unequal weight. The second is a statement about one polytope with up to N!N!N! vertices and a linear system of size O(N2)O(N^2)O(N2); it is finite-dimensional linear programming. The first requires the complete characterization of distortion risk measures on a finite uniform space, and that is where the obvious approach fails. The known representation of law-invariant comonotonic coherent measures as mixtures of CVaR (Kusuoka 2001) is proved for atomless spaces and does not transfer to a discrete Ω\OmegaΩ. The uniform distribution is essential, not a convenience: Remark 4.2 of the paper gives a two-point space with probabilities 1/3,2/31/3, 2/31/3,2/3 and a monotone, normalized, submodular set function depending only on probability whose induced distortion is not concave, so the conclusion of Theorem 4.2 fails there.

Formalization scope

  • Ω\OmegaΩ is Fin N with N≥1N \ge 1N≥1; random variables are Fin N → ℝ; indices are 0-based throughout, so qhat j is the paper's q^j+1\hat q^{j+1}q^​j+1 and q1≥⋯≥qNq_1 \ge \cdots \ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​ is Antitone q. Order statistics are X ∘ Tuple.sort X.
  • Probability measures on Ω\OmegaΩ are probability vectors in stdSimplex ℝ (Fin N). Generation (1) is an IsLUB over an arbitrary set of probability vectors, not a maximum over a finite family (that version is false).
  • Sign of the risk constraint. Display (2) and Theorem 4.3 print μ(a~′x−b)≥0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \ge 0μ(a~′x−b)≥0. The paper introduces the constraint as μ(a~′x−b)≤0\mu(\tilde a'x - b) \le 0μ(a~′x−b)≤0 (p. 1486) and the proof of Theorem 3.1 computes μ(a~′x−b)=−inf⁡a∈Ua′x+b\mu(\tilde a'x - b) = -\inf_{a \in \mathcal U} a'x + bμ(a~′x−b)=−infa∈U​a′x+b; all statements use ≤0\le 0≤0.
  • Standing assumptions. Theorems 2.1 and 3.1 assume a probability vector ppp with pi>0p_i > 0pi​>0 (full support makes Q≪P\mathbb Q \ll \mathbb PQ≪P vacuous; with a null atom Theorem 2.1 fails for functions on Ω\OmegaΩ). From Lemma 4.1 on the distribution is uniform (Assumption 4.1). Theorem 3.1's converse adds U≠∅\mathcal U \neq \emptysetU=∅.
  • CVaR is a real infimum, used only for α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1], where the objective is bounded below by E[−X]\mathbb E[-X]E[−X]. In Lemma 4.1 the mixing measure ν\nuν is a probability measure on (0,1](0,1](0,1]; the page's ∫01\int_0^1∫01​ is read over (0,1](0,1](0,1]. The CVaR display uses the corrected coefficient (Nα−⌊Nα⌋)/(Nα)(N\alpha - \lfloor N\alpha \rfloor)/(N\alpha)(Nα−⌊Nα⌋)/(Nα) in place of the printed /⌊Nα⌋/\lfloor N\alpha \rfloor/⌊Nα⌋. The assignment-duality milestone is stated for every q∈RNq \in \mathbb R^Nq∈RN.
  • The goal must assert the representation μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​ together with the set equalities: a statement "there is some qqq for which the sets coincide" would let qqq depend on the data and is not Theorem 4.3. The goal does not assume μ=μq\mu = \mu_qμ=μq​, which is Theorem 4.2's conclusion.
  • Needed infrastructure: Birkhoff's theorem (in Mathlib), LP duality, the rearrangement inequality, Choquet integrals of step functions. Lemmas about μq\mu_qμq​ and order statistics are reusable beyond this mission; proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, Constructing uncertainty sets for robust linear optimization, Operations Research 57(6):1483–1495, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0646
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber, D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9(3):203–228, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
  • D. Schmeidler, Integral representation without additivity, Proceedings of the AMS 97(2):255–261, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-1986-0835875-8
  • R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk, Journal of Risk 2(3):21–41, 2000. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • S. Kusuoka, On law invariant coherent risk measures, Advances in Mathematical Economics 3:83–95, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-67891-5_4
  • H. Föllmer, A. Schied, Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time, 2nd ed., de Gruyter, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110212075
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Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization 2: The Distortion Risk Measures with Centrally Symmetric Permutohulls Are the Mixtures of ⌊N/2⌋+1 GeneratorsResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear decision made with uncertain coefficients can be protected by requiring the constraint to hold for every coefficient vector in an uncertainty set. Choosing that set determines how conservative the decision is. Bertsimas and Brown connect this choice to a risk measure: a functional that assigns a cost to the random reward left by a decision. Their construction turns certain risk constraints into robust linear constraints over a convex hull of weighted samples. This mission isolates the structural question asked in §4.4 of their paper: which such risk measures always produce uncertainty sets that are centrally symmetric about the sample mean? The answer matters because this symmetric family is the class used in the paper's subsequent approximation of general polyhedral uncertainty sets. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), §§4.3–4.5.

Setting

There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 observations, indexed by i=1,…,Ni=1,\ldots,Ni=1,…,N, with equal reference probabilities. A probability weight vector q=(q1,…,qN)q=(q_1,\ldots,q_N)q=(q1​,…,qN​) has nonnegative entries summing to one. The restricted simplex Δ^N\widehat\Delta^NΔN contains those vectors whose entries are nonincreasing: q1≥⋯≥qNq_1\ge\cdots\ge q_Nq1​≥⋯≥qN​. For a reward vector X=(x1,…,xN)X=(x_1,\ldots,x_N)X=(x1​,…,xN​), write x(1)≤⋯≤x(N)x_{(1)}\le\cdots\le x_{(N)}x(1)​≤⋯≤x(N)​ for its increasing order statistics. The associated distortion risk measure is μq(X)=−∑iqix(i)\mu_q(X)=-\sum_iq_i x_{(i)}μq​(X)=−∑i​qi​x(i)​. A larger reward therefore reduces risk. Under the uniform distribution, the paper's Theorem 4.2 identifies these functionals, for q∈Δ^Nq\in\widehat\Delta^Nq∈ΔN, with its distortion risk measures. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Theorem 4.2.

Take arbitrary sample vectors a1,…,aN∈Rna_1,\ldots,a_N\in\mathbb R^na1​,…,aN​∈Rn. For a permutation σ\sigmaσ of their indices, form the weighted vector ∑iqσ(i)ai\sum_iq_{\sigma(i)}a_i∑i​qσ(i)​ai​. The qqq-permutohull Πq(A)\Pi_q(\mathcal A)Πq​(A) is the convex hull of all these vectors. Its center of interest is the sample mean a^=N−1∑iai\widehat a=N^{-1}\sum_i a_ia=N−1∑i​ai​. A set PPP is centrally symmetric through x0∈Px_0\in Px0​∈P when x0+x∈Px_0+x\in Px0​+x∈P implies x0−x∈Px_0-x\in Px0​−x∈P for every xxx. The quantifier “for any data” ranges over every dimension nnn and every choice of NNN sample vectors. It is stronger than symmetry for one selected data set. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Definitions 4.7–4.8.

Formalization targets

The first target is Proposition 4.1's characterization of weights giving universal symmetry. If eNe_NeN​ is the vector with every entry 1/N1/N1/N, then

[Πq(A) is centrally symmetric through a^ for every n,A]⟺∃σ∈SN: q=2eN−qσ.\bigl[\Pi_q(\mathcal A)\text{ is centrally symmetric through }\widehat a \text{ for every }n,\mathcal A\bigr] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \exists\sigma\in S_N:\ q=2e_N-q_\sigma.[Πq​(A) is centrally symmetric through a for every n,A]⟺∃σ∈SN​: q=2eN​−qσ​.

This condition defines the symmetric restricted simplex Δ^symN\widehat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}ΔsymN​ inside Δ^N\widehat\Delta^NΔN. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Proposition 4.1 and Definition 4.9.

The main target is Theorem 4.4. Put N^=⌊N/2⌋+1\widehat N=\lfloor N/2\rfloor+1N=⌊N/2⌋+1. For 1≤j≤N^1\le j\le\widehat N1≤j≤N, define a generator qˉ j\bar q^{\,j}qˉ​j by

qˉi j={2/N,i<j,1/N,j≤i≤N−j+1,0,otherwise.\bar q_i^{\,j}= \begin{cases} 2/N,&i<j,\\ 1/N,&j\le i\le N-j+1,\\ 0,&\text{otherwise}. \end{cases}qˉ​ij​=⎩⎨⎧​2/N,1/N,0,​i<j,j≤i≤N−j+1,otherwise.​

A functional represented by a q∈Δ^Nq\in\widehat\Delta^Nq∈ΔN whose permutohull is symmetric for every data set is exactly a convex mixture of the N^\widehat NN generator functionals:

μ(X)=∑j=1N^λjμqˉ j(X),λj≥0,∑j=1N^λj=1.\mu(X)=\sum_{j=1}^{\widehat N}\lambda_j\mu_{\bar q^{\,j}}(X), \qquad \lambda_j\ge0,\qquad\sum_{j=1}^{\widehat N}\lambda_j=1.μ(X)=j=1∑N​λj​μqˉ​j​(X),λj​≥0,j=1∑N​λj​=1.

The milestones also state the two set inclusions behind the equality of Δ^symN\widehat\Delta^N_{\mathrm{sym}}ΔsymN​ with the convex hull of these generators, including the coordinate reversal identity. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Theorem 4.4 and its proof.

Significance

The result gives a finite list of risk functionals from which every member of the universally symmetric distortion subclass can be formed. The number of generators is ⌊N/2⌋+1\lfloor N/2\rfloor+1⌊N/2⌋+1, rather than an unspecified family. It also connects a geometric property of a robust uncertainty set to a checkable condition on its weights. The paper uses this symmetric subclass to formulate the inner approximation problem in §4.5, where a symmetric permutohull is fitted inside another polytope. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), §§4.4–4.5.

The mathematical result is proved in the 2009 paper. This formalization task is to obtain Lean proofs of the classification and its source-stated intermediate claims. The definition layer is a reusable interface for finite distortion risk measures, permutohulls, and symmetry under coordinate permutations. Formal proofs here would provide a checked foundation for later robust optimization statements using the same finite sample model. The proposed goal and milestones are open Lean statements; compiling them verifies their syntax and types, not their proofs.

Difficulty

Symmetry of one pictured polygon does not determine its weight vector. The hypothesis demands symmetry for every possible collection of sample vectors, so the converse in Proposition 4.1 must recover a relation among weights from a universal geometric property. Another difficulty is that the explicit generators change shape at the midpoint, and the odd and even cases have different middle ranges. The paper writes the calculation for odd NNN and says the even case is analogous; the theorem itself makes no parity restriction. A proof therefore has to cover the even boundary, including the generator whose 1/N1/N1/N band is empty. Bertsimas and Brown (2009), Proposition 4.1 and proof of Theorem 4.4.

Formalization scope

The Lean sample space is Fin N, with N>0N>0N>0. Its indices start at zero; the prose and source formulas above start at one. The source's N^\widehat NN is N / 2 + 1 in natural numbers. Probability vectors use Mathlib's standard simplex together with antitone coordinate order. Permutohulls use convexHull of the finite permutation family, and order statistics use Tuple.sort. The reference distribution is uniform, as in the paper's Assumption 4.1. Real vector spaces of dimension zero are allowed because the claim quantifies over every dimension; the nonempty sample condition excludes division by zero.

The goal takes an arbitrary functional μ\muμ and requires an actual representation μ=μq\mu=\mu_qμ=μq​ by a restricted-simplex weight. This is the paper's Theorem 4.2 parametrization of distortion risk measures, stated directly because that theorem is being drafted in a separate mission of the same series. Universal symmetry is derived from the data quantifier; it is not assumed as a condition on qqq. The generator mixture is likewise the conclusion, with its coefficients nonnegative and summing to one. Central symmetry includes membership of the center in the set.

Useful contributions include proofs of the source's permutation characterization, validity and symmetry of generator mixtures, and their converse spanning property. The definitions of finite probability weights and weighted permutation hulls can support further finite sample robust optimization results. The paper's inconsistent accent on the generator risk measure in Theorem 4.4 is read as the functional of the displayed generator vector; its intermediate sum on p. 1492 does not alter the stated normalized mixture.

Selected references

  • Dimitris Bertsimas and David B. Brown, Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization, Operations Research 57(6), 1483–1495, 2009. DOI: 10.1287/opre.1080.0646.
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Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons 1: A Fixed Price Earns at Least 1 − 1/(2√min{n, λ*t}) of the Optimal Expected RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm holds a fixed stock of a perishable or seasonal product: airline seats, hotel rooms, fashion goods, tickets. It must sell the stock over a finite season, and whatever is left at the end is worth nothing. The firm can change its price at any time, and demand responds to the price at random. Should it adjust its price continually as sales occur and time runs out, or is one well-chosen price nearly as good?

Gallego and van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons (Management Science 40(8), 1994, doi:10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999), set up this question as a continuous-time stochastic control problem and answered it. The source for this mission is the published 1994 article. Its answer is quantitative: the expected revenue of a single fixed price is within a factor 1−1/(2min⁡{n,λ∗t})1-1/(2\sqrt{\min\{n,\lambda^*t\}})1−1/(2min{n,λ∗t}​) of the best possible dynamic policy. The paper is one of the founding results of dynamic pricing in revenue management. The deterministic (fluid) upper bound it introduced became the standard benchmark of the field, and later work on re-solving heuristics, network revenue management and learning-while-pricing builds on it.

Setting

Demand. The firm chooses a demand intensity λ\lambdaλ from an interval Λ∋0\Lambda\ni 0Λ∋0 of allowable rates, and the market charges the inverse-demand price p(λ)p(\lambda)p(λ). On nonzero rates, ppp is strictly decreasing and nonnegative; rate 000 corresponds to the null price p∞p_\inftyp∞​, at which nothing sells. The revenue rate is r(λ)=λp(λ)r(\lambda)=\lambda p(\lambda)r(λ)=λp(λ). It has r(0)=0r(0)=0r(0)=0, and it is continuous, concave and bounded on Λ\LambdaΛ. λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ denotes its least maximizer, and p∗=p(λ∗)p^*=p(\lambda^*)p∗=p(λ∗), r∗=r(λ∗)r^*=r(\lambda^*)r∗=r(λ∗). Such data form a regular demand function (§2.1).

The stochastic problem. At time 000 the firm holds nnn items and has a horizon [0,t][0,t][0,t]. A non-anticipating pricing policy uuu chooses the intensity λs∈Λ\lambda_s\in\Lambdaλs​∈Λ at each elapsed time sss as a function of the sales history so far. Sales follow a Poisson process with this controlled intensity, and at most nnn items can be sold. A sale at time sss earns the current price psp_sps​. The expected revenue is Ju(n,t)=Eu[∫0tps dNs]J_u(n,t)=E_u[\int_0^t p_s\,dN_s]Ju​(n,t)=Eu​[∫0t​ps​dNs​], where NsN_sNs​ counts the sales, and the optimal expected revenue is J∗(n,t)=sup⁡uJu(n,t)J^*(n,t)=\sup_u J_u(n,t)J∗(n,t)=supu​Ju​(n,t).

The deterministic problem. Replacing random sales by their rates gives

JD(x,t)=sup⁡{∫0tr(λ(s)) ds: λ(s)∈Λ, ∫0tλ(s) ds≤x}.J^D(x,t)=\sup\Big\{\int_0^t r(\lambda(s))\,ds:\ \lambda(s)\in\Lambda,\ \int_0^t\lambda(s)\,ds\le x\Big\}.JD(x,t)=sup{∫0t​r(λ(s))ds: λ(s)∈Λ, ∫0t​λ(s)ds≤x}.

It is solved by the constant rate λD=min⁡{λ∗,x/t}\lambda^D=\min\{\lambda^*,x/t\}λD=min{λ∗,x/t} (Proposition 2).

Fixed-price heuristics. JFP(n,t)J^{FP}(n,t)JFP(n,t) is the expected revenue of charging pD=p(λD)p^D=p(\lambda^D)pD=p(λD) for the whole horizon. JOFP(n,t)J^{OFP}(n,t)JOFP(n,t) is the expected revenue of the best constant price.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0, n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and t>0t>0t>0, J∗(n,t)J^*(n,t)J∗(n,t) is finite and positive, and

JOFP(n,t)J∗(n,t) ≥ JFP(n,t)J∗(n,t) ≥ 1−12min⁡{n,λ∗t}.\frac{J^{OFP}(n,t)}{J^*(n,t)}\ \ge\ \frac{J^{FP}(n,t)}{J^*(n,t)}\ \ge\ 1-\frac{1}{2\sqrt{\min\{n,\lambda^*t\}}}.J∗(n,t)JOFP(n,t)​ ≥ J∗(n,t)JFP(n,t)​ ≥ 1−2min{n,λ∗t}​1​.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2: λD\lambda^DλD solves (11), and JD(x,t)=t r(λD)J^D(x,t)=t\,r(\lambda^D)JD(x,t)=tr(λD).
  2. Eqs. (13)–(14): Eu[Nt]=Eu[∫0tλsds]≤nE_u[N_t]=E_u[\int_0^t\lambda_s ds]\le nEu​[Nt​]=Eu​[∫0t​λs​ds]≤n and Ju(n,t)=Eu[∫0tr(λs)ds]J_u(n,t)=E_u[\int_0^t r(\lambda_s)ds]Ju​(n,t)=Eu​[∫0t​r(λs​)ds] for every policy.
  3. Eq. (15) and Lemma 1: Ju(n,t)≤Ju(n,t,μ)≤JD(n,t,μ)J_u(n,t)\le J_u(n,t,\mu)\le J^D(n,t,\mu)Ju​(n,t)≤Ju​(n,t,μ)≤JD(n,t,μ) for all μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0.
  4. The zero duality gap: JD(n,t)=min⁡μ≥0JD(n,t,μ)J^D(n,t)=\min_{\mu\ge0}J^D(n,t,\mu)JD(n,t)=minμ≥0​JD(n,t,μ).
  5. Theorem 2: J∗(n,t)≤JD(n,t)J^*(n,t)\le J^D(n,t)J∗(n,t)≤JD(n,t) for all n≥0n\ge 0n≥0, t≥0t\ge0t≥0.
  6. Eq. (17): a fixed price ppp earns p E[min⁡{n,Nλ(p)t}]p\,E[\min\{n,N_{\lambda(p)t}\}]pE[min{n,Nλ(p)t​}], with NNN Poisson.
  7. Inequality (18), Gallego's bound E[(N−n)+]≤(σ2+(n−μ)2−(n−μ))/2E[(N-n)^+]\le(\sqrt{\sigma^2+(n-\mu)^2}-(n-\mu))/2E[(N−n)+]≤(σ2+(n−μ)2​−(n−μ))/2, already on the platform.
  8. The two case bounds of the proof of Theorem 3, including (19), and the exact fixed-price revenue of the Remark.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 says that uncertainty can only cost revenue. The deterministic value is a computable upper bound for every policy, so any heuristic can be judged against it. Theorem 3 turns this into a guarantee: with 400 items and scarce stock, a single price earns at least 97.5% of the optimum. The loss vanishes as the expected sales volume grows. This is the justification for the stable, rarely changed prices seen in practice, and the template for the asymptotic-optimality analyses that followed: fluid bounds, re-solving, bid prices.

Formalizing it. The results are proved on paper, and none is formalized. The platform has a discrete-time Bernoulli analogue of Theorem 2 (Talluri–van Ryzin, RevenueManagement.deterministic_upper_bound) and Bitran–Caldentey's periodic-review version as open items. Neither is this continuous-time model. A formalization would add a controlled Poisson sales process with a policy-dependent intensity, the compensator identities (13)–(14) for it, and a Lagrangian-duality argument over measurable rate paths. These are reusable for every continuous-time revenue-management model on the platform. Gallego's moment bound (18) is already proved there.

Difficulty

The deterministic side (Proposition 2, the duality gap) is convex analysis on one concave function. The fixed-price bounds reduce to a Poisson computation and (18). The obstacle is Theorem 2's stochastic step. The revenue is collected at random jump times chosen by an adaptive policy, and comparing it with a deterministic integral requires the compensator identity Eu[∫ps dNs]=Eu[∫r(λs) ds]E_u[\int p_s\,dN_s]=E_u[\int r(\lambda_s)\,ds]Eu​[∫ps​dNs​]=Eu​[∫r(λs​)ds] for an arbitrary non-anticipating intensity. The paper cites Brémaud's martingale theory for this, which Mathlib does not have. A first idea is to apply Jensen's inequality to JuJ_uJu​ directly. It fails because the stock constraint holds only pathwise, through Nt≤nN_t\le nNt​≤n, and not in expectation for a rate path. Restricting to Markovian policies does not remove the need for the identity.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Rates are real numbers, and Λ⊆[0,∞)\Lambda\subseteq[0,\infty)Λ⊆[0,∞) is an interval containing 000. ppp is a real function, strictly decreasing and nonnegative on Λ∖{0}\Lambda\setminus\{0\}Λ∖{0}. r(λ)=λp(λ)r(\lambda)=\lambda p(\lambda)r(λ)=λp(λ) is continuous, concave and bounded above on Λ\LambdaΛ, and λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is its least maximizer. p(0)p(0)p(0) is never used, since the null price may be +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Policies depend on elapsed time and the past sale times (the internal history); randomized policies are not included. Intensities are jointly measurable and locally integrable.
  • The sales process is built from i.i.d. Exp(1)\mathrm{Exp}(1)Exp(1) clocks, one per item. A sale occurs when the intensity integrated since the last sale reaches the next clock, so at most nnn items are sold. Constraint (2) is part of the construction, not a hypothesis.
  • Values. Expected revenues and J∗J^*J∗ are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], as lower Lebesgue integrals and suprema. JDJ^DJD is a real supremum over measurable, integrable rate paths, nonempty and bounded for x,t≥0x,t\ge0x,t≥0. JFPJ^{FP}JFP and JOFPJ^{OFP}JOFP are expected revenues of constant-price policies of this process, and the goal also asserts 0<J∗<∞0<J^*<\infty0<J∗<∞. Defining JuJ_uJu​ by the right side of (14), J∗J^*J∗ by the HJB equation, or JFPJ^{FP}JFP by formula (17) would trivialize the mission, and is ruled out.
  • Added hypotheses. Theorem 3 assumes n≥1n\ge1n≥1, t>0t>0t>0 and λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0, which the page leaves implicit: the ratios divide by J∗J^*J∗, which vanishes otherwise. Eqs. (13)–(14) are stated for every policy, without Proposition 1's bound λs≤λ∗\lambda_s\le\lambda^*λs​≤λ∗, and without the reduction to Markovian policies.
  • Corrected slips. (12) prints JD(x,t)=tmin⁡{r∗,r0}J^D(x,t)=t\min\{r^*,r^0\}JD(x,t)=tmin{r∗,r0}, which is false for x>λ∗tx>\lambda^*tx>λ∗t (exponential demand with x=atx=atx=at gives r0=0r^0=0r0=0). The statement uses t r(λD)t\,r(\lambda^D)tr(λD), and the printed form where x≤λ∗tx\le\lambda^*tx≤λ∗t. The Remark's "E(Nn−n)+=n(1−P{Nn=n})E(N_n-n)^+=n(1-P\{N_n=n\})E(Nn​−n)+=n(1−P{Nn​=n})" should read E[min⁡{Nn,n}]E[\min\{N_n,n\}]E[min{Nn​,n}]; its displayed JFPJ^{FP}JFP formula is right. Proposition 2's "the optimal solution" is stated as optimality, since uniqueness fails without strict concavity.
  • Welcome contributions. Infrastructure for counting processes with stochastic intensity (the clock construction, the compensator identity), Jensen and Lagrangian duality for concave integral functionals on rate paths, and Poisson truncated-mean computations.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • G. Gallego, A Minmax Distribution Free Procedure for the (Q, R) Inventory Model, Operations Research Letters 11:55–60, 1992 (cited in the paper's references, p. 1019).
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1980 (as cited in the paper).
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004 (Chapter 5; on the platform as RevenueManagement.*).
  • G. Bitran, R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–229, 2003 (on the platform as PricingRM.DetHeuristic.*).
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model 3: A Closed Form for the Induced Penalty Cost under Normal DemandResearch Paper

Motivation

Multiechelon inventory theory studies supply systems in which stock is held at several levels: here, a depot that orders from an outside supplier and a retail outlet that is replenished from the depot and faces random customer demand. The question is how much to order and ship in each period so as to minimize expected holding, shortage and ordering costs over an infinite horizon. Clark and Scarf (Management Science, 1960) showed that the finite-horizon problem of a serial system decomposes into single-location problems linked by an induced penalty cost. Federgruen and Zipkin (Operations Research 32(4), 1984) extended the decomposition to the infinite horizon under discounted and average costs, and then asked what it costs to compute an optimal policy.

In the reduced single-location problem the only nonlinear part of the one-period cost is the expected induced penalty PLP^LPL. Any algorithm for the reduced problem (Veinott–Wagner type policy computations, for instance) evaluates PLP^LPL many times. In general each evaluation is a numerical integral. Section 4 of the paper shows that when demand is normal, PLP^LPL has a closed form in the univariate and bivariate standard normal distribution functions. This mission formalizes that closed form, eq. (13) on p. 830.

Setting

Time is discrete. One-period demand is u∼N(μ,σ2)u\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2)u∼N(μ,σ2) with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, independent across periods. For i≥1i\ge1i≥1, u(i)u^{(i)}u(i) is the total demand over iii periods. It is normal with mean μ(i)=iμ\mu^{(i)}=i\muμ(i)=iμ and standard deviation σ(i)=i1/2σ\sigma^{(i)}=i^{1/2}\sigmaσ(i)=i1/2σ, density f(i)f^{(i)}f(i) and cdf F(i)F^{(i)}F(i). The shipment lead time from depot to outlet is l≥0l\ge0l≥0 and the order lead time from the supplier is L≥1L\ge1L≥1. The cost factors are a system-wide holding cost hd>0h^d>0hd>0, a retailer holding cost hr>0h^r>0hr>0 and a retailer shortage penalty pr>0p^r>0pr>0. Write ps=hd+prp^s=h^d+p^rps=hd+pr. Costs are average costs, so the discount factor is α=1\alpha=1α=1 throughout.

The retailer's one-period cost (p. 822) is

R(x)=−hd(x−μ(l))+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+.R(x)=-h^d(x-\mu^{(l)})+p^rE[u^{(l+1)}-x]^++(h^d+h^r)E[x-u^{(l+1)}]^+ .R(x)=−hd(x−μ(l))+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+.

The critical number xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ is a global minimizer of RRR (property (b), p. 824). The induced penalty cost is P(x)=0P(x)=0P(x)=0 for x≥xr∗x\ge x^{r*}x≥xr∗ and P(x)=R(x)−R(xr∗)P(x)=R(x)-R(x^{r*})P(x)=R(x)−R(xr∗) for x<xr∗x<x^{r*}x<xr∗. Its expectation over the order lead time is

PL(x)=E P[x−u(L)](eq. (10)).P^L(x)=E\,P[x-u^{(L)}]\qquad\text{(eq. (10))}.PL(x)=EP[x−u(L)](eq. (10)).

Let Φ\PhiΦ and ϕ\phiϕ be the standard normal cdf and density, Θ(z)=zΦ(z)+ϕ(z)\Theta(z)=z\Phi(z)+\phi(z)Θ(z)=zΦ(z)+ϕ(z), and Φ(ξ1,ξ2;ρ)\Phi(\xi_1,\xi_2;\rho)Φ(ξ1​,ξ2​;ρ) the cdf of a bivariate normal pair with standard normal marginals and correlation ρ\rhoρ. The paper defines (p. 830)

τ1(x)=−x−(xr∗+μ(L))σ(L),τ2(x)=x−μ(L+l+1)σ(L+l+1),νr∗=xr∗−μ(l+1)σ(l+1),\tau_1(x)=-\frac{x-(x^{r*}+\mu^{(L)})}{\sigma^{(L)}},\quad \tau_2(x)=\frac{x-\mu^{(L+l+1)}}{\sigma^{(L+l+1)}},\quad \nu^{r*}=\frac{x^{r*}-\mu^{(l+1)}}{\sigma^{(l+1)}},τ1​(x)=−σ(L)x−(xr∗+μ(L))​,τ2​(x)=σ(L+l+1)x−μ(L+l+1)​,νr∗=σ(l+1)xr∗−μ(l+1)​, τ3(x)=−x−(xr∗+μ(L))−[σ(L)/σ(l+1)]2[xr∗−μ(l+1)]σ(L)σ(L+l+1)/σ(l+1),\tau_3(x)=-\frac{x-(x^{r*}+\mu^{(L)})-[\sigma^{(L)}/\sigma^{(l+1)}]^2[x^{r*}-\mu^{(l+1)}]}{\sigma^{(L)}\sigma^{(L+l+1)}/\sigma^{(l+1)}},τ3​(x)=−σ(L)σ(L+l+1)/σ(l+1)x−(xr∗+μ(L))−[σ(L)/σ(l+1)]2[xr∗−μ(l+1)]​, ϵ1(x)=Φ[τ3(x)]ϕ[τ2(x)]σ(L+l+1),ϵ2(x)=Φ(νr∗)ϕ[τ1(x)]σ(L),ι(x)=σ(L)Θ[τ1(x)],\epsilon_1(x)=\frac{\Phi[\tau_3(x)]\phi[\tau_2(x)]}{\sigma^{(L+l+1)}},\qquad \epsilon_2(x)=\frac{\Phi(\nu^{r*})\phi[\tau_1(x)]}{\sigma^{(L)}},\qquad \iota(x)=\sigma^{(L)}\Theta[\tau_1(x)],ϵ1​(x)=σ(L+l+1)Φ[τ3​(x)]ϕ[τ2​(x)]​,ϵ2​(x)=σ(L)Φ(νr∗)ϕ[τ1​(x)]​,ι(x)=σ(L)Θ[τ1​(x)], κ(x)=σ(l+1)Θ(νr∗)Φ[τ1(x)]−{[σ(L+l+1)]2ϵ1(x)−[σ(L)]2ϵ2(x)}−[x−μ(L+l+1)] Φ[τ1(x),τ2(x);ρ],\kappa(x)=\sigma^{(l+1)}\Theta(\nu^{r*})\Phi[\tau_1(x)]-\{[\sigma^{(L+l+1)}]^2\epsilon_1(x)-[\sigma^{(L)}]^2\epsilon_2(x)\}-[x-\mu^{(L+l+1)}]\,\Phi[\tau_1(x),\tau_2(x);\rho],κ(x)=σ(l+1)Θ(νr∗)Φ[τ1​(x)]−{[σ(L+l+1)]2ϵ1​(x)−[σ(L)]2ϵ2​(x)}−[x−μ(L+l+1)]Φ[τ1​(x),τ2​(x);ρ],

with ρ=−σ(L)/σ(L+l+1)\rho=-\sigma^{(L)}/\sigma^{(L+l+1)}ρ=−σ(L)/σ(L+l+1).

Formalization targets

Goal: eq. (13)

For every real xxx,

PL(x)=ps ι(x)−(ps+hr) κ(x).P^L(x)=p^s\,\iota(x)-(p^s+h^r)\,\kappa(x).PL(x)=psι(x)−(ps+hr)κ(x).

This is an exact identity for every admissible parameter value. It holds with no constants left free.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's outline of the derivation on pp. 829–831:

  1. eq. (11), R(x)=ps[μ(l+1)−x]+(ps+hr)∫−∞xF(l+1)(t) dt−hdμR(x)=p^s[\mu^{(l+1)}-x]+(p^s+h^r)\int_{-\infty}^xF^{(l+1)}(t)\,dt-h^d\muR(x)=ps[μ(l+1)−x]+(ps+hr)∫−∞x​F(l+1)(t)dt−hdμ;
  2. eq. (12), PL(x)=∫x−xr∗∞[R(x−t)−R(xr∗)]f(L)(t) dtP^L(x)=\int_{x-x^{r*}}^\infty[R(x-t)-R(x^{r*})]f^{(L)}(t)\,dtPL(x)=∫x−xr∗∞​[R(x−t)−R(xr∗)]f(L)(t)dt;
  3. eq. (14), PL′(x)=−psΦ[τ1(x)]+(ps+hr)∫x−xr∗∞F(l+1)(x−t)f(L)(t) dtP^{L\prime}(x)=-p^s\Phi[\tau_1(x)]+(p^s+h^r)\int_{x-x^{r*}}^\infty F^{(l+1)}(x-t)f^{(L)}(t)\,dtPL′(x)=−psΦ[τ1​(x)]+(ps+hr)∫x−xr∗∞​F(l+1)(x−t)f(L)(t)dt;
  4. eq. (15), the same derivative with the integral replaced by Φ[τ1(x),τ2(x);ρ]\Phi[\tau_1(x),\tau_2(x);\rho]Φ[τ1​(x),τ2​(x);ρ];
  5. PL(x)→0P^L(x)\to0PL(x)→0 as x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞, hence PL(x)=−∫x∞PL′(t) dtP^L(x)=-\int_x^\infty P^{L\prime}(t)\,dtPL(x)=−∫x∞​PL′(t)dt;
  6. ι′(x)=−Φ[τ1(x)]\iota'(x)=-\Phi[\tau_1(x)]ι′(x)=−Φ[τ1​(x)] and ι(x)→0\iota(x)\to0ι(x)→0;
  7. the two conditional-normal identities, which give Φ[τ3(x)]\Phi[\tau_3(x)]Φ[τ3​(x)] and Φ(νr∗)\Phi(\nu^{r*})Φ(νr∗);
  8. ddxΦ[τ1(x),τ2(x);ρ]=ϵ1(x)−ϵ2(x)\frac{d}{dx}\Phi[\tau_1(x),\tau_2(x);\rho]=\epsilon_1(x)-\epsilon_2(x)dxd​Φ[τ1​(x),τ2​(x);ρ]=ϵ1​(x)−ϵ2​(x);
  9. and 10. the formulas for ϵ1′\epsilon_1'ϵ1′​ and ϵ2′\epsilon_2'ϵ2′​;
  10. κ′(x)=−Φ[τ1(x),τ2(x);ρ]\kappa'(x)=-\Phi[\tau_1(x),\tau_2(x);\rho]κ′(x)=−Φ[τ1​(x),τ2​(x);ρ] and κ(x)→0\kappa(x)\to0κ(x)→0.

Two side remarks of p. 830 are also included: Θ′=Φ\Theta'=\PhiΘ′=Φ, and the simplified form of τ3\tau_3τ3​.

Significance

The result. Under normal demand, (13) replaces the numerical integral (12) with a few evaluations of Φ\PhiΦ, ϕ\phiϕ and the bivariate normal cdf, all available in standard numerical libraries. Together with the decomposition results of Sections 1–3 of the paper, it makes the policy computation for the two-echelon system with normal demand no harder than a single-location computation with an explicit cost function. The same functions reappear in the paper's Section 5 for several retail outlets, after a reinterpretation of σ(l+1)\sigma^{(l+1)}σ(l+1).

Formalizing it. The paper proves (13) only in outline: it calls the derivation "an elementary integration problem, but … sufficiently involved to warrant an outline" and leaves "tedious algebra" and "more algebra" to the reader. A machine-checked proof turns that outline into a complete argument, including the analytic steps the outline passes over: differentiation under the integral sign, the limits at +∞+\infty+∞, and the identification of an integral of normal densities with a bivariate normal probability. To our knowledge no formal proof of (13) exists, and no bivariate normal distribution function is on the platform yet.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to substitute (11) into (12) and integrate. The result is a double integral of normal densities over a region bounded by a line, and it does not reduce to univariate functions. The paper's route is to differentiate first, identify the derivative (14) as a probability for the correlated pair (u(L),u(L)+u(l+1))(u^{(L)},u^{(L)}+u^{(l+1)})(u(L),u(L)+u(l+1)), and then recover PLP^LPL by integrating from +∞+\infty+∞. That route needs three things: justification for differentiating under the integral in (12), whose integrand has a kink at t=x−xr∗t=x-x^{r*}t=x−xr∗; control of the limits at +∞+\infty+∞; and the conditional-normal identities, which involve conditioning on a null event and so must be handled through densities. The verification of κ′\kappa'κ′ is a long computation with Θ\ThetaΘ, ϵ1\epsilon_1ϵ1​ and ϵ2\epsilon_2ϵ2​, in which every constant matters.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace FZEchelon.NormalDemand. The model data form the structure Data (fields μ,σ,hd,hr,pr,l,L,xr∗\mu,\sigma,h^d,h^r,p^r,l,L,x^{r*}μ,σ,hd,hr,pr,l,L,xr∗). The law of u(i)u^{(i)}u(i) is the platform's normal demand law InventoryControl.newsboyDemand with mean iμi\muiμ and standard deviation i σ\sqrt i\,\sigmai​σ. Expectations are Bochner integrals, and improper integrals are set integrals over Set.Ioi/Set.Iic. Φ\PhiΦ is cdf (gaussianReal 0 1). The bivariate cdf is the iterated integral of the explicit bivariate density over a lower-left quadrant (meaningful for ∣ρ∣<1|\rho|<1∣ρ∣<1; here ρ∈(−1,0)\rho\in(-1,0)ρ∈(−1,0)). Derivatives are HasDerivAt and limits are Tendsto … atTop (𝓝 0).

Standing hypotheses of every theorem: σ>0\sigma>0σ>0; hd,hr,pr>0h^d,h^r,p^r>0hd,hr,pr>0 (p. 821); L≥1L\ge1L≥1; and xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ minimizes RRR. Two of these are added to the page and disclosed. σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 is needed because every τ\tauτ divides by some σ(i)\sigma^{(i)}σ(i). L≥1L\ge1L≥1 is needed because σ(0)=0\sigma^{(0)}=0σ(0)=0, and the paper treats zero order lead time separately (p. 819). Demand is exactly normal, as in §4, which acknowledges that this violates u≥0u\ge0u≥0 and ignores the objection. No nonnegativity, truncation or approximation enters. The goal fixes α=1\alpha=1α=1, the average-cost case the section restricts to. The discounted analogue is not part of this mission.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: every Bochner integral in the statements has an integrable integrand, since integrands grow at most linearly and the normal law has all moments. No division by a zero standard deviation can occur under the hypotheses. A sorry-free check in the workspace shows that all hypotheses hold together, with a minimizer xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ of RRR proved to exist.

Needed infrastructure: properties of gaussianReal (moments, convolution of independent normals), differentiation of parametric integrals, and a bivariate normal distribution function with its partial derivatives. A reusable treatment of the bivariate normal cdf, linking the density form used here to Mathlib's multivariateGaussian, would be a contribution of independent value. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome in any order.

Selected references

  • A. Federgruen and P. Zipkin, Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model, Operations Research 32(4):818–836, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • A. J. Clark and H. Scarf, Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem, Management Science 6(4):475–490, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • A. F. Veinott Jr. and H. M. Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(5):525–552, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.5.525
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Local Rademacher Complexities I: The Error Is Bounded by the Fixed Point of a Sub-Root Bound on Local Rademacher Averages of the Star-Hull (Theorem 3.3, Part 2)Research Paper

Motivation

A learning algorithm that picks a function f^\hat ff^​ from a class F\mathcal FF by minimizing an empirical average is only as good as the gap between the empirical average PnfP_n fPn​f and the true mean PfPfPf, uniformly over the functions it might choose. The classical way to control this gap uses a global complexity of the whole class, such as its Rademacher average, and yields rates of order 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​. These rates are too slow in many problems of statistics and learning theory, where the functions that matter (those close to the best one) have small variance. Bartlett, Bousquet and Mendelson (arXiv:math/0508275, Annals of Statistics 33 (2005) 1497–1537) showed that the gap can instead be controlled by a local complexity, the Rademacher average of the small-variance part of the class. The resulting bounds give fast rates, often of order log⁡n/n\log n / nlogn/n, and the paper is the standard reference for this method in empirical process theory and statistical learning.

The method builds on Koltchinskii and Panchenko (2000), Massart (2000) and Lugosi and Wegkamp (2004), and its concentration step uses Bousquet's form of Talagrand's inequality (2002). It is the basis of the fast-rate analyses in Koltchinskii's 2006 Annals of Statistics paper on local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities, and in later work on variance-regularized risk minimization.

Setting

Let (X,P)(\mathcal X, P)(X,P) be a probability space and X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ independent random variables with law PPP. For a function f:X→Rf : \mathcal X \to \mathbb Rf:X→R write

Pf=Ef(X),Pnf=1n∑i=1nf(Xi).Pf = \mathbb E f(X), \qquad P_n f = \frac1n \sum_{i=1}^n f(X_i).Pf=Ef(X),Pn​f=n1​i=1∑n​f(Xi​).

Let σ1,…,σn\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_nσ1​,…,σn​ be independent signs, Pr⁡(σi=1)=Pr⁡(σi=−1)=1/2\Pr(\sigma_i = 1) = \Pr(\sigma_i = -1) = 1/2Pr(σi​=1)=Pr(σi​=−1)=1/2. For a class G\mathcal GG of functions, the empirical Rademacher average is

EσRnG=1n Eσsup⁡g∈G∑i=1nσig(Xi),\mathbb E_\sigma R_n \mathcal G = \frac1n\, \mathbb E_\sigma \sup_{g \in \mathcal G} \sum_{i=1}^n \sigma_i g(X_i),Eσ​Rn​G=n1​Eσ​g∈Gsup​i=1∑n​σi​g(Xi​),

the expectation over the signs with the sample fixed, and the Rademacher average ERnG\mathbb E R_n \mathcal GERn​G is its expectation over the sample.

The star-hull of F\mathcal FF around 000 is star⁡(F,0)={αf:f∈F, α∈[0,1]}\operatorname{star}(\mathcal F, 0) = \{\alpha f : f \in \mathcal F,\ \alpha \in [0,1]\}star(F,0)={αf:f∈F, α∈[0,1]}. A functional TTT assigns a number T(f)T(f)T(f) to each function; it plays the role of a variance proxy (for instance T(f)=Var⁡[f]T(f) = \operatorname{Var}[f]T(f)=Var[f] or T(f)=Pf2T(f) = Pf^2T(f)=Pf2).

A function ψ:[0,∞)→[0,∞)\psi : [0,\infty) \to [0,\infty)ψ:[0,∞)→[0,∞) is sub-root if it is nondecreasing and r↦ψ(r)/rr \mapsto \psi(r)/\sqrt rr↦ψ(r)/r​ is nonincreasing on r>0r > 0r>0. A nontrivial sub-root function has a unique positive fixed point r∗r^*r∗, the solution of ψ(r∗)=r∗\psi(r^*) = r^*ψ(r∗)=r∗ (Lemma 3.2 of the paper).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3, second part (with corrected constants)

Let F\mathcal FF be a class of functions with values in [a,b][a, b][a,b], B>0B > 0B>0, and TTT a functional with 0≤T(f)0 \le T(f)0≤T(f), Var⁡[f]≤T(f)≤B Pf\operatorname{Var}[f] \le T(f) \le B\, PfVar[f]≤T(f)≤BPf and T(αf)≤α2T(f)T(\alpha f) \le \alpha^2 T(f)T(αf)≤α2T(f) for f∈Ff \in \mathcal Ff∈F, α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0,1]α∈[0,1]. Let ψ\psiψ be sub-root with fixed point r∗r^*r∗ and assume, for every r≥r∗r \ge r^*r≥r∗,

ψ(r)≥B ERn{f∈star⁡(F,0):T(f)≤r}.\psi(r) \ge B\, \mathbb E R_n \{ f \in \operatorname{star}(\mathcal F, 0) : T(f) \le r \}.ψ(r)≥BERn​{f∈star(F,0):T(f)≤r}.

Then for every K>1K > 1K>1 and x>0x > 0x>0, with probability at least 1−e−x1 - e^{-x}1−e−x,

∀f∈FPf≤max⁡{Pnf,KK−1Pnf}+7.04 KBr∗+x (21(b−a)+6.4 BK)n,\forall f \in \mathcal F \qquad Pf \le \max\Big\{P_n f, \frac{K}{K-1} P_n f\Big\} + \frac{7.04\,K}{B} r^* + \frac{x\,(21(b-a) + 6.4\,BK)}{n},∀f∈FPf≤max{Pn​f,K−1K​Pn​f}+B7.04K​r∗+nx(21(b−a)+6.4BK)​,

and, with probability at least 1−e−x1 - e^{-x}1−e−x,

∀f∈FPnf≤K+1KPf+7.04 KBr∗+x (21(b−a)+6.4 BK)n.\forall f \in \mathcal F \qquad P_n f \le \frac{K+1}{K} Pf + \frac{7.04\,K}{B} r^* + \frac{x\,(21(b-a) + 6.4\,BK)}{n}.∀f∈FPn​f≤KK+1​Pf+B7.04K​r∗+nx(21(b−a)+6.4BK)​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.2 (p. 10): a nontrivial sub-root function is continuous on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), has a unique positive fixed point r∗r^*r∗, and r≥ψ(r)r \ge \psi(r)r≥ψ(r) iff r≥r∗r \ge r^*r≥r∗.
  2. Sub-root growth (p. 16): ψ(βr)≤β ψ(r)\psi(\beta r) \le \sqrt{\beta}\,\psi(r)ψ(βr)≤β​ψ(r) for β≥1\beta \ge 1β≥1 and r≥0r \ge 0r≥0; at the fixed point it gives ψ(r)≤rr∗\psi(r) \le \sqrt{r r^*}ψ(r)≤rr∗​ for r≥r∗r \ge r^*r≥r∗.
  3. Containment (p. 17): G~r={rf/(T(f)∨r):f∈F}⊂{f∈star⁡(F,0):T(f)≤r}\tilde{\mathcal G}_r = \{ r f/(T(f) \vee r) : f \in \mathcal F\} \subset \{ f \in \operatorname{star}(\mathcal F, 0) : T(f) \le r\}G~​r​={rf/(T(f)∨r):f∈F}⊂{f∈star(F,0):T(f)≤r}, and hence ERnG~r≤ψ(r)/B\mathbb E R_n \tilde{\mathcal G}_r \le \psi(r)/BERn​G~​r​≤ψ(r)/B.
  4. Theorem 2.1, first part (p. 8): the concentration inequality for sup⁡f(Pf−Pnf)\sup_{f}(Pf - P_n f)supf​(Pf−Pn​f) in terms of ERnF\mathbb E R_n \mathcal FERn​F, a variance bound and (b−a)(b-a)(b−a); an existing platform statement.
  5. The largest-root bound (p. 16) for Ar+C=r/(λBK)A\sqrt r + C = r/(\lambda BK)Ar​+C=r/(λBK); an existing platform statement.
  6. Lemma 3.8, third and fourth claims (pp. 14–15): from sup⁡g∈G~r(Pg−Png)≤r/(BK)\sup_{g \in \tilde{\mathcal G}_r}(Pg - P_n g) \le r/(BK)supg∈G~​r​​(Pg−Pn​g)≤r/(BK) to the first bound of the goal, and symmetrically.
  7. Lemma A.3 (p. 34): u+v≤u+v\sqrt{u+v} \le \sqrt u + \sqrt vu+v​≤u​+v​ and 2uv≤αu+v/α2\sqrt{uv} \le \alpha u + v/\alpha2uv​≤αu+v/α.

Significance

The theorem replaces the global complexity sup⁡rψ(r)\sup_r \psi(r)supr​ψ(r) that a direct application of Talagrand's inequality would give by the fixed point r∗r^*r∗, which is never larger and is often much smaller. For a class with a Bernstein-type variance condition (T(f)=Pf2≤B PfT(f) = Pf^2 \le B\,PfT(f)=Pf2≤BPf, as for excess losses of empirical risk minimizers), r∗r^*r∗ is of order dlog⁡n/nd \log n / ndlogn/n for VC-type classes and of order of the eigenvalue tail for kernel classes, which yields the fast rates of the paper's Sections 4–6. The second part, formalized here, gives better constants than the first by working with the star-hull of the class, and it is the version the paper's later results (Theorem 4.1 and its corollaries) are built on.

On the formal side, nothing of local Rademacher theory is in Mathlib or, beyond the definitions reused here, on the platform. The concentration inequality used in the proof (Theorem 2.1, from Bousquet's form of Talagrand's inequality) is posed but unproved on the platform. A complete formalization would make the fixed-point machinery available to every fast-rate result built on it. The paper's printed constants for this statement are wrong (see below), so a machine-checked version also settles which constants the argument supports.

Difficulty

The obvious approach applies a concentration inequality directly to F\mathcal FF and bounds the complexity term by a single Rademacher average; this loses the variance information and gives only 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ rates. The localized argument needs a level rrr that is simultaneously above the fixed point and large enough that the deviation of the rescaled class G~r\tilde{\mathcal G}_rG~​r​ is at most r/(BK)r/(BK)r/(BK). Converting a bound on the rescaled class back into a bound on F\mathcal FF requires the multiplicative structure of T(f)≤B PfT(f) \le B\,PfT(f)≤BPf. The probabilistic core is Talagrand's concentration inequality for suprema of empirical processes with Bousquet's constants, whose proof (entropy method) is the main piece of missing infrastructure. Measurability of the suprema involved is a separate technical obstacle.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Functions are X → ℝ on a measurable space with a probability measure P; the sample is s : Fin n → X under the product measure, with n ≥ 1. PnfP_n fPn​f is empMean s f, EσRn\mathbb E_\sigma R_nEσ​Rn​ is empRademacher (the average over all 2n2^n2n sign vectors of a real supremum, without absolute value), ERn\mathbb E R_nERn​ is expRademacher, and IsSubRoot is Definition 3.1; these are reused published definitions.
  • Standing assumption. The paper assumes throughout that suprema of empirical processes are measurable (p. 7). This is encoded by taking F\mathcal FF countable with measurable members. Every expectation of an empirical Rademacher average comes with an integrability hypothesis, so it cannot hold through the junk value 000 of a non-integrable Bochner integral.
  • Added hypotheses, implicit on the page: B>0B > 0B>0, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, T≥0T \ge 0T≥0 on F\mathcal FF. The functional TTT is defined on all real functions; only its values on F\mathcal FF are constrained. The localization hypothesis is required only for r≥r∗r \ge r^*r≥r∗, as printed.
  • High-probability statements are two separate bounds on the (outer) product measure of the failure event "some f∈Ff \in \mathcal Ff∈F violates the inequality", each at most e−xe^{-x}e−x.
  • Corrections of the print. The page states the second part with c1=6c_1 = 6c1​=6, c2=5c_2 = 5c2​=5 and 11(b−a)11(b-a)11(b−a). Its proof, at the paper's α=1/10\alpha = 1/10α=1/10, gives c1=4(1+α)2+2(1+α)=7.04c_1 = 4(1+\alpha)^2 + 2(1+\alpha) = 7.04c1​=4(1+α)2+2(1+α)=7.04, c2=4(1+α)+2=6.4c_2 = 4(1+\alpha) + 2 = 6.4c2​=4(1+α)+2=6.4 and 623(b−a)≤21(b−a)\tfrac{62}{3}(b-a) \le 21(b-a)362​(b−a)≤21(b−a) (the display on p. 16 drops the factor 2 of the term 2C2C2C). The first claim's KK−1Pnf\frac{K}{K-1}P_n fK−1K​Pn​f holds only when Pnf≥0P_n f \ge 0Pn​f≥0 and is replaced by max⁡{Pnf,KK−1Pnf}\max\{P_n f, \frac{K}{K-1}P_n f\}max{Pn​f,K−1K​Pn​f}; Lemma 3.8's third claim is corrected the same way. Lemma 3.2's "continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)" becomes (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), since 1{r>0}\mathbf 1\{r > 0\}1{r>0} is a nontrivial sub-root function discontinuous at 000. Part 1 of Theorem 3.3 is not stated.
  • No trivialization. The goal does not mention the proof's rescaled class, its suprema, or the auxiliary root r0r_0r0​; it is stated about F\mathcal FF, TTT, BBB, ψ\psiψ, r∗r^*r∗, the star-hull, PfPfPf and PnfP_n fPn​f only, and a sanity check exhibits an instance satisfying all its hypotheses.
  • Infrastructure needed and welcome: a proof of the referenced concentration inequality (Bousquet's version of Talagrand's inequality, with symmetrization); monotonicity and measurability lemmas for empRademacher; elementary sub-root calculus. The sub-root lemmas and the containment step are reusable by any later mission on local Rademacher complexities.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, O. Bousquet, S. Mendelson, Local Rademacher complexities, Annals of Statistics 33(4) (2005) 1497–1537. arXiv:math/0508275, doi:10.1214/009053605000000282
  • O. Bousquet, A Bennett concentration inequality and its application to suprema of empirical processes, C. R. Math. Acad. Sci. Paris 334 (2002) 495–500. MR1890640
  • V. Koltchinskii, D. Panchenko, Rademacher processes and bounding the risk of function learning, High Dimensional Probability II, Birkhäuser (2000) 443–459. MR1857339
  • P. Massart, Some applications of concentration inequalities to statistics, Ann. Fac. Sci. Toulouse Math. (6) 9 (2000) 245–303. MR1813803
  • G. Lugosi, M. Wegkamp, Complexity regularization via localized random penalties, Annals of Statistics 32 (2004) 1679–1697. MR2089138
  • V. Koltchinskii, Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization, Annals of Statistics 34(6) (2006) 2593–2656. arXiv:0708.0083
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information 1: Reduction to Complete State Information on the Conditional State Distributions, with the Same Optimal LawResearch Paper

Motivation

A controller often cannot see the state of the system it steers. It sees only measurements that are noisy functions of that state. In operations research this happens in machine maintenance and inspection, in queues observed only partially, and in inventory systems with inexact stock records. In control engineering it is the usual case. The question is what the controller should base its decisions on. The full record of past measurements is the obvious choice, but that record grows with time, so a law that uses it is a function on a space whose dimension grows with the horizon.

K. J. Åström's 1965 paper Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information answered this question for finite Markov chains. The answer is that the conditional distribution of the hidden state given the measurements is a sufficient statistic. The problem with incomplete information is equivalent to a problem with complete information whose state is that distribution. This is the model now called a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), and the conditional distribution is now called the belief state.

Timeline. For linear systems with quadratic cost and Gaussian noise, the separation theorem of Joseph and Tou (1961) and Gunckel and Franklin (1963) says that the optimal control is a fixed function of the conditional mean of the state. Åström (1965) proved the reduction for finite-state Markov chains with arbitrary costs, with the conditional distribution as the new state. Smallwood and Sondik (1973) showed that for finite horizons the value function is piecewise linear and concave in the belief, which made exact computation possible. Bertsekas and Shreve (1978) and Bäuerle and Rieder (2011) gave the reduction for general Borel models.

Setting

The hidden state xtx_txt​, t=1,…,Nt = 1, \dots, Nt=1,…,N, takes values in a finite set SSS. The controls u=(u1,…,ur)u = (u_1, \dots, u_r)u=(u1​,…,ur​) range over a compact nonempty set U⊂RrU \subset \mathbb R^rU⊂Rr. The state moves by the transition probabilities pij(u,t)=P{xt=j∣xt−1=i}p_{ij}(u, t) = P\{x_t = j \mid x_{t-1} = i\}pij​(u,t)=P{xt​=j∣xt−1​=i}, which are continuous in uuu. The state is observed through outputs yty_tyt​ in a finite set YYY, with qij=P{yt=j∣xt=i}q_{ij} = P\{y_t = j \mid x_t = i\}qij​=P{yt​=j∣xt​=i}, conditionally independent given the states. The law of x1x_1x1​ is p1p^1p1. An instantaneous cost g(u,i,t)g(u, i, t)g(u,i,t), continuous in uuu, is paid at each time.

A control law chooses u(t)=c(η1,…,ηt,t)∈Uu(t) = c(\eta_1, \dots, \eta_t, t) \in Uu(t)=c(η1​,…,ηt​,t)∈U from the outputs observed so far, η(t)=(η1,…,ηt)\eta(t) = (\eta_1, \dots, \eta_t)η(t)=(η1​,…,ηt​). With u(t)u(t)u(t) moving xtx_txt​ to xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​, a law determines the joint law of (x1,…,xN,y1,…,yN)(x_1, \dots, x_N, y_1, \dots, y_N)(x1​,…,xN​,y1​,…,yN​) and the expected cost

EL=E∑t=1Ng(u(t),xt,t).(2.6)EL = E \sum_{t=1}^N g(u(t), x_t, t). \tag{2.6}EL=Et=1∑N​g(u(t),xt​,t).(2.6)

Problem P.1 is to find an admissible law minimizing (2.6).

The conditional state distribution is wi(t)=P{xt=i∣η(t)}w_i(t) = P\{x_t = i \mid \eta(t)\}wi​(t)=P{xt​=i∣η(t)}. It is updated by Bayes' rule: with zj(u,w)i=∑sqij psi(u,t+1) wsz^j(u, w)_i = \sum_s q_{ij}\, p_{si}(u, t+1)\, w_szj(u,w)i​=∑s​qij​psi​(u,t+1)ws​ and ∥z∥=∑i∣zi∣\|z\| = \sum_i |z_i|∥z∥=∑i​∣zi​∣, the output ηt+1=j\eta_{t+1} = jηt+1​=j gives w(t+1)=zj(u(t),w(t))/∥zj(u(t),w(t))∥w(t+1) = z^j(u(t), w(t)) / \|z^j(u(t), w(t))\|w(t+1)=zj(u(t),w(t))/∥zj(u(t),w(t))∥, and ∥zj∥\|z^j\|∥zj∥ is the probability of that output. The cost-to-go Vk(w)V_k(w)Vk​(w) is the minimal expected cost of the steps k,…,Nk, \dots, Nk,…,N when xkx_kxk​ has distribution www, with VN+1=0V_{N+1} = 0VN+1​=0. Problem P.2 controls the process w(t)w(t)w(t) directly: a law chooses u(t)u(t)u(t) from w(1),…,w(t)w(1), \dots, w(t)w(1),…,w(t) to minimize E∑t=1N∑ig(u(t),i,t) wi(t)E\sum_{t=1}^N \sum_i g(u(t), i, t)\, w_i(t)E∑t=1N​∑i​g(u(t),i,t)wi​(t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

P.1 has a solution if and only if P.2 has one. For every solution (V,c0)(V, c^0)(V,c0) of the functional equation

Vk(w)=min⁡u∈U{∑ig(u,i,k) wi+∑jVk+1(zj(u,w)∥zj(u,w)∥)∥zj(u,w)∥},VN+1=0,(3.28)V_k(w) = \min_{u \in U} \Big\{ \sum_i g(u, i, k)\, w_i + \sum_j V_{k+1}\Big(\frac{z^j(u, w)}{\|z^j(u, w)\|}\Big) \|z^j(u, w)\| \Big\}, \qquad V_{N+1} = 0, \tag{3.28}Vk​(w)=u∈Umin​{i∑​g(u,i,k)wi​+j∑​Vk+1​(∥zj(u,w)∥zj(u,w)​)∥zj(u,w)∥},VN+1​=0,(3.28)

with c0(w,k)c^0(w, k)c0(w,k) attaining the minimum, the law

u(t)=c0(w(t),t)u(t) = c^0(w(t), t)u(t)=c0(w(t),t)

is optimal for P.1 and for P.2, among all admissible laws of each, and both minimal values equal Eη1V1(w(1))E_{\eta_1} V_1(w(1))Eη1​​V1​(w(1)).

Milestones

  1. (3.20)–(3.25): the conditional distributions obey the Bayes recursion, and ∥zj∥=P[yt+1=j∣η(t)]\|z^j\| = P[y_{t+1} = j \mid \eta(t)]∥zj∥=P[yt+1​=j∣η(t)].
  2. Theorem 1: the cost-to-go satisfies (3.28) with the minimum attained, and an optimal Markov law attains it.
  3. Theorem 2: a solution of (3.28) gives an optimal law for P.1 with value (3.29).
  4. Lemma 1: under u(t)=c(w(t),t)u(t) = c(w(t), t)u(t)=c(w(t),t), {w(t)}\{w(t)\}{w(t)} is a Markov process with transition probabilities P(y,Γ,u)=∑k∈K∥zk(u,y)∥P(y, \Gamma, u) = \sum_{k \in K} \|z^k(u, y)\|P(y,Γ,u)=∑k∈K​∥zk(u,y)∥.
  5. Proof of Theorem 3: the integral against this kernel is the sum in (3.28).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 replaces a minimization over functions of ever longer measurement records with a recursion over a fixed space, the probability simplex over the states. Every exact and approximate POMDP algorithm starts from it: value iteration on beliefs, the piecewise-linear representation of Smallwood and Sondik, point-based methods. It also splits the controller in two. A filter computes w(t)w(t)w(t) in real time, and the function c0c^0c0 can be computed off-line. This is the decomposition the paper draws on p. 189, and it extends the linear-quadratic separation theorem to arbitrary finite chains.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved. The platform has the reduction in Bäuerle and Rieder's discounted Borel model with an observable state component and rewards in extended reals. It does not have Åström's model: finite chains, time-dependent transition matrices, an unobservable state, costs, and laws of the raw output history. This mission formalizes Åström's statements as he gives them. The cost (2.6) is defined from the joint law of states and outputs, and the comparison classes are all laws of the outputs (P.1) and all laws of the distribution history (P.2). The finite setting makes every expectation a finite sum, so a complete development needs no measure theory.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is backward induction on the conditional distributions. The difficulty is that w(t)w(t)w(t) depends on the controls already used, so it is not given in advance: the state of the reduced problem is produced by the law being optimized. It has to be shown that the expected cost of an arbitrary law of the outputs, computed from the joint law, splits as the reduced recursion says. In particular, laws that use more of the record than w(t)w(t)w(t) must gain nothing. Restricting the comparison class to laws of the form c(w(t),t)c(w(t), t)c(w(t),t) assumes this conclusion.

A second difficulty is attainment. "Min" in (3.28) and "has a solution" presuppose that minima over UUU are attained, which needs continuity of Vk+1V_{k+1}Vk+1​ on the simplex. The weights ∥zj(u,w)∥\|z^j(u, w)\|∥zj(u,w)∥ can vanish, and then the update zj/∥zj∥z^j/\|z^j\|zj/∥zj∥ is undefined.

Formalization scope

States and outputs are finite types, St and Obs, with the chain given by the structure Model. Controls are Fin r → ℝ, and UUU is compact and nonempty. The law p1p^1p1 of x1x_1x1​ is the datum in place of the paper's law of x0x_0x0​, since no control u(0)u(0)u(0) exists. The transition from xtx_txt​ to xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ uses u(t)u(t)u(t) and the matrix p(u(t),t+1)p(u(t), t+1)p(u(t),t+1). Times 1,…,N1, \dots, N1,…,N are indexed by Fin N as 0,…,N−10, \dots, N-10,…,N−1.

The norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm l1, not Mathlib's sup norm. Conditional distributions are ratios of path sums, condState, and are claimed only on output histories of positive probability. When ∥zj∥=0\|z^j\| = 0∥zj∥=0 the update is the zero vector and is always multiplied by 000.

The cost-to-go costToGo is an infimum over admissible tail laws. Its index set is nonempty and the costs are bounded below, so the real infimum is a true infimum. It is never defined through (3.28), since that would make Theorem 1 circular. The P.2 functional sums branch by branch over the outputs, with weights ∥zj∥\|z^j\|∥zj∥. "Given by Theorem 1" is read as "c0(w,k)∈Uc^0(w, k) \in Uc0(w,k)∈U attains the minimum in (3.28)" (IsSolution328).

The goal is not the bare equivalence of solvability. In this compact, continuous, finite setting both problems always have solutions, so that sentence alone is trivially true. The goal also requires the law c0(w(t),t)c^0(w(t), t)c0(w(t),t) to be optimal in both problems, against every admissible law, with equal minimal values.

Reusable beyond this mission are the finite POMDP model, the joint path law, the Bayes filter and the belief-MDP kernel. Welcome contributions include proofs of the milestones, the continuity of VkV_kVk​ on the simplex, and existence of solutions of (3.28).

Selected references

  • K. J. Åström, Optimal control of Markov processes with incomplete state information, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 10(1):174–205, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X
  • R. D. Smallwood and E. J. Sondik, The optimal control of partially observable Markov processes over a finite horizon, Operations Research 21(5):1071–1088, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1071
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978, Chapter 10. https://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance, Springer, 2011, Chapter 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18324-9
  • P. D. Joseph and J. T. Tou, On linear control theory, Transactions of the AIEE, Part II 80(4):193–196, 1961. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAI.1961.6371743
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Contraction Mappings in the Theory Underlying Dynamic Programming 1: Under the Contraction and Monotonicity Assumptions the Solution of the Functional Equation Is the Optimal ReturnResearch Paper

Why this problem arose

Dynamic programming often replaces a search over whole plans with an equation for a value function. That replacement is useful only when solving the equation recovers the value actually available through policies. In his 1967 paper, Eric Denardo isolated conditions on an abstract return function that make this identification possible, without committing to a particular transition law or a finite state space. The framework covers discounted decision models and other examples discussed in the paper, while allowing different decisions at different states. Denardo, 1967.

The mission concerns the paper's first regime: a one-step contraction together with monotonicity. It focuses on the question raised just after equation (4): does the solution of the functional equation equal the supremum of the return functions generated by policies? The paper proves that it does under these assumptions. Its later NNN-stage regime is a separate mission. Denardo, 1967, pp. 167–169.

States, decisions, and returns

Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a set of states. At each x∈Ωx\in\Omegax∈Ω there is a decision set DxD_xDx​. A policy δ\deltaδ selects a decision δx∈Dx\delta_x\in D_xδx​∈Dx​ at every state, so the policy space Δ\DeltaΔ is the full Cartesian product ∏x∈ΩDx\prod_{x\in\Omega}D_x∏x∈Ω​Dx​. Let VVV be the bounded real functions on Ω\OmegaΩ, with the uniform metric ρ(u,v)=sup⁡x∈Ω∣u(x)−v(x)∣\rho(u,v)=\sup_{x\in\Omega}|u(x)-v(x)|ρ(u,v)=supx∈Ω​∣u(x)−v(x)∣. A return function h(x,d,v)h(x,d,v)h(x,d,v) assigns a real return to a state, an available decision, and a continuation value v∈Vv\in Vv∈V. Denardo, 1967, p. 166.

For a policy δ\deltaδ, its policy operator HδH_\deltaHδ​ acts by (Hδv)(x)=h(x,δx,v)(H_\delta v)(x)=h(x,\delta_x,v)(Hδ​v)(x)=h(x,δx​,v). Under the contraction assumption, some ccc satisfies 0≤c<10\le c<10≤c<1 and ∣h(x,d,u)−h(x,d,v)∣≤cρ(u,v)|h(x,d,u)-h(x,d,v)|\le c\rho(u,v)∣h(x,d,u)−h(x,d,v)∣≤cρ(u,v) for all eligible x,d,u,vx,d,u,vx,d,u,v. Each HδH_\deltaHδ​ then has a unique fixed point vδ∈Vv_\delta\in Vvδ​∈V, called that policy's return function. The optimal return function is defined pointwise by f(x)=sup⁡δ∈Δvδ(x)f(x)=\sup_{\delta\in\Delta}v_\delta(x)f(x)=supδ∈Δ​vδ​(x). These are the paper's definitions, rather than a presumed equality between fff and a Bellman fixed point. Denardo, 1967, pp. 166–167.

The maximization operator AAA instead chooses the best decision at each state for a supplied continuation value: (Av)(x)=sup⁡d∈Dxh(x,d,v)(Av)(x)=\sup_{d\in D_x}h(x,d,v)(Av)(x)=supd∈Dx​​h(x,d,v). Denardo assumes that HδvH_\delta vHδ​v and AvAvAv remain bounded, so both operators act on VVV. The monotonicity assumption says that u≥vu\ge vu≥v pointwise implies Hδu≥HδvH_\delta u\ge H_\delta vHδ​u≥Hδ​v for every policy. These are separate conditions: contraction controls distance between value functions, while monotonicity controls their order. Denardo, 1967, pp. 166–168.

Formalization targets

The central target is Theorem 3. Under contraction and monotonicity, the unique bounded solution v∗v^*v∗ of equation (4) is the optimal return:

Av∗=v∗,v∗(x)=f(x)=sup⁡δ∈Δvδ(x)(x∈Ω).Av^*=v^*,\qquad v^*(x)=f(x)=\sup_{\delta\in\Delta}v_\delta(x)\quad(x\in\Omega).Av∗=v∗,v∗(x)=f(x)=δ∈Δsup​vδ​(x)(x∈Ω).

The milestones follow the paper's route to that assertion. Theorem 1 bounds a policy's return by its fixed-point residual, ρ(vδ,w)≤ρ(Hδw,w)/(1−c)\rho(v_\delta,w)\le\rho(H_\delta w,w)/(1-c)ρ(vδ​,w)≤ρ(Hδ​w,w)/(1−c). Theorem 2 says that AAA itself has modulus at most ccc. The text accompanying equation (4) establishes that AAA has exactly one fixed point. Corollary 1 then gives, for each ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, a policy with residual at most ε(1−c)\varepsilon(1-c)ε(1−c) at that fixed point and return within ε\varepsilonε of it, together with an exact equality criterion for zero residual. Denardo, 1967, pp. 167–168.

What the result gives

Theorem 3 justifies reading the functional equation as an optimization equation: its solution is the pointwise supremum of returns realized by the paper's policy model. Corollary 1 supplies policy returns arbitrarily close to that solution in the uniform metric. With the compactness and continuity assumptions of Corollary 2, the paper also obtains a policy that attains it, though that optional result is outside this mission's milestone list. Denardo, 1967, pp. 167–168.

The mathematical result was proved in the cited paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its abstract statements in Lean, including the residual estimate, the maximization operator's contraction, fixed-point existence, and the identification with optimal policy return. The definitions are reusable for decision models whose returns fit Denardo's assumptions; they do not prescribe a probability kernel or a finite action set.

Where the difficulty lies

The fixed-point theorem alone identifies a unique solution of Av=vAv=vAv=v; it does not identify that solution with fff, because fff is defined through the separate fixed points of all HδH_\deltaHδ​. The distinction matters: the paper observes that contraction without monotonicity can leave v∗v^*v∗ different from fff, and gives h(x,d,v)=−v(x)/2h(x,d,v)=-v(x)/2h(x,d,v)=−v(x)/2 as a nonmonotone example. The formal goal therefore retains both definitions and requires monotonicity. Denardo, 1967, pp. 167–168.

There is also a choice issue in Corollary 1. A near-maximizing decision is available separately at every state, while its conclusion asks for one policy choosing all those decisions at once. The full Cartesian policy space is essential to the statement. On an infinite state set, the value functions must remain bounded even after applying AAA or a policy operator; contraction of differences by itself does not provide that range condition. Denardo, 1967, pp. 166–168.

Formalization scope

Lean represents VVV by bounded real functions lp (fun _ : Ω => ℝ) ⊤; its metric is ρ\rhoρ. The state type may be infinite or empty, and decision sets depend on the state. Policies are precisely dependent functions δ:(x:Ω)→Dx\delta:(x:\Omega)\to D_xδ:(x:Ω)→Dx​. The operators HδH_\deltaHδ​ and AAA are maps into VVV supplied with equations fixing their values from hhh. This expresses the bounded-range assumptions on pages 166–167. Pointwise order is explicit because the bounded-function type has no order instance. Denardo, 1967, pp. 166–168.

Every supremum in the mission is a genuine real least upper bound. IsMaxOperator requires it for the decision returns at each state; IsOptimalReturn requires it for the policy returns. These predicates avoid assigning a default value to an empty or unbounded supremum. Where states exist, IsMaxOperator also entails a nonempty decision set. The family vδv_\deltavδ​ is supplied with Hδvδ=vδH_\delta v_\delta=v_\deltaHδ​vδ​=vδ​; contraction ensures each such return exists uniquely. Equation (4) and the main goal explicitly assert existence of the fixed point of AAA, so the goal cannot hold merely because there is no solution to identify. Defining fff from the fixed point of AAA, or defining v∗v^*v∗ from the policy supremum, would erase the paper's substantive claim and is excluded.

The definition layer needs bounded functions, uniform distance, real least upper bounds, and dependent policies. The theorem layer needs fixed-point and order reasoning on these objects. Contributions toward those general operator facts and the paper's four milestone statements are within scope.

Selected references

  • Eric V. Denardo, Contraction Mappings in the Theory Underlying Dynamic Programming, SIAM Review 9(2), 165–177, 1967. DOI: 10.1137/1009030.
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Machine LearningOptimizationReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Theory of Policy Gradient Methods: Optimality, Approximation, and Distribution Shift 1: Projected Gradient Ascent on the Simplex Is ε-Optimal After 64γ|S||A|D∞²/((1−γ)⁶ε²) IterationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Policy gradient methods optimize a parameterized policy of a Markov decision process by gradient ascent on its expected discounted return. They are among the most widely used methods in reinforcement learning, from REINFORCE (Williams 1992) and the policy gradient theorem to natural policy gradient and trust-region methods. The objective is not concave in the policy, even when the policy is a raw table of action probabilities, so standard optimization theory guarantees at best convergence to a stationary point, and it was long unclear whether or how fast these methods find an optimal policy.

Agarwal, Kakade, Lee and Mahajan (JMLR 2021) give a systematic answer for the tabular and function-approximation settings. This mission formalizes their warm-up result, Theorem 4.1: projected gradient ascent over the simplex of stochastic policies reaches an ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal policy after a number of iterations polynomial in the sizes of the MDP, the effective horizon 1/(1−γ)1/(1-\gamma)1/(1−γ), 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ, and a distribution mismatch coefficient. The gradient domination idea it rests on goes back to the analysis of conservative policy iteration by Kakade and Langford (2002) and to Scherrer and Geist (2014).

Setting

A finite discounted MDP consists of finite sets S\mathcal SS of states and A\mathcal AA of actions, a transition kernel P(s′∣s,a)P(s'\mid s,a)P(s′∣s,a), rewards r(s,a)∈[0,1]r(s,a)\in[0,1]r(s,a)∈[0,1] and a discount factor γ∈[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1)γ∈[0,1). A policy π\piπ assigns to each state a probability distribution π(⋅∣s)\pi(\cdot\mid s)π(⋅∣s) over actions. Its value from a start state s0s_0s0​ is

Vπ(s0)=E[∑t=0∞γtr(st,at) ∣ s0],at∼π(⋅∣st), st+1∼P(⋅∣st,at),V^\pi(s_0)=\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=0}^\infty\gamma^t r(s_t,a_t)\,\Big|\,s_0\Big],\qquad a_t\sim\pi(\cdot\mid s_t),\ s_{t+1}\sim P(\cdot\mid s_t,a_t),Vπ(s0​)=E[t=0∑∞​γtr(st​,at​)​s0​],at​∼π(⋅∣st​), st+1​∼P(⋅∣st​,at​),

and for a start distribution ρ\rhoρ, Vπ(ρ)=∑sρ(s)Vπ(s)V^\pi(\rho)=\sum_s\rho(s)V^\pi(s)Vπ(ρ)=∑s​ρ(s)Vπ(s). The action value is Qπ(s,a)=r(s,a)+γ∑s′P(s′∣s,a)Vπ(s′)Q^\pi(s,a)=r(s,a)+\gamma\sum_{s'}P(s'\mid s,a)V^\pi(s')Qπ(s,a)=r(s,a)+γ∑s′​P(s′∣s,a)Vπ(s′) and the advantage is Aπ(s,a)=Qπ(s,a)−Vπ(s)A^\pi(s,a)=Q^\pi(s,a)-V^\pi(s)Aπ(s,a)=Qπ(s,a)−Vπ(s). The discounted state visitation distribution is dρπ(s)=(1−γ)∑t≥0γtPr⁡π(st=s∣s0∼ρ)d^\pi_\rho(s)=(1-\gamma)\sum_{t\ge0}\gamma^t\Pr^\pi(s_t=s\mid s_0\sim\rho)dρπ​(s)=(1−γ)∑t≥0​γtPrπ(st​=s∣s0​∼ρ). An optimal policy π⋆\pi^\starπ⋆ maximizes Vπ(s)V^\pi(s)Vπ(s) at every state simultaneously; V⋆=Vπ⋆V^\star=V^{\pi^\star}V⋆=Vπ⋆.

In the direct parameterization the parameter is the table itself, πs,a=π(a∣s)\pi_{s,a}=\pi(a\mid s)πs,a​=π(a∣s), a point of the product simplex Δ(A)∣S∣⊆RS×A\Delta(\mathcal A)^{|\mathcal S|}\subseteq\mathbb R^{\mathcal S\times\mathcal A}Δ(A)∣S∣⊆RS×A. The algorithm optimizes Vπ(μ)V^\pi(\mu)Vπ(μ) for a chosen start distribution μ\muμ by projected gradient ascent

π(t+1)=PΔ(A)∣S∣(π(t)+η∇πV(t)(μ)),\pi^{(t+1)}=P_{\Delta(\mathcal A)^{|\mathcal S|}}\big(\pi^{(t)}+\eta\nabla_\pi V^{(t)}(\mu)\big),π(t+1)=PΔ(A)∣S∣​(π(t)+η∇π​V(t)(μ)),

where PΔ(A)∣S∣P_{\Delta(\mathcal A)^{|\mathcal S|}}PΔ(A)∣S∣​ is the Euclidean projection and V(t)=Vπ(t)V^{(t)}=V^{\pi^{(t)}}V(t)=Vπ(t). Performance is measured under a possibly different distribution ρ\rhoρ, and the distribution mismatch coefficient ∥dρπ⋆/μ∥∞\|d^{\pi^\star}_\rho/\mu\|_\infty∥dρπ⋆​/μ∥∞​ (componentwise ratio) measures how well μ\muμ covers the states an optimal policy visits from ρ\rhoρ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

With step size η=(1−γ)3/(2γ∣A∣)\eta=(1-\gamma)^3/(2\gamma|\mathcal A|)η=(1−γ)3/(2γ∣A∣), from any initial policy, for every ρ∈Δ(S)\rho\in\Delta(\mathcal S)ρ∈Δ(S) and ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0,

min⁡t≤T{V⋆(ρ)−V(t)(ρ)}≤ϵwheneverT>64γ∣S∣∣A∣(1−γ)6ϵ2∥dρπ⋆μ∥∞2.\min_{t\le T}\big\{V^\star(\rho)-V^{(t)}(\rho)\big\}\le\epsilon\qquad\text{whenever}\qquad T>\frac{64\gamma|\mathcal S||\mathcal A|}{(1-\gamma)^6\epsilon^2}\Big\|\frac{d^{\pi^\star}_\rho}{\mu}\Big\|_\infty^2 .t≤Tmin​{V⋆(ρ)−V(t)(ρ)}≤ϵwheneverT>(1−γ)6ϵ264γ∣S∣∣A∣​​μdρπ⋆​​​∞2​.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Lemma 3.2 (performance difference): Vπ(s0)−Vπ′(s0)=11−γEs∼ds0πEa∼π(⋅∣s)[Aπ′(s,a)]V^\pi(s_0)-V^{\pi'}(s_0)=\frac1{1-\gamma}\mathbb E_{s\sim d^\pi_{s_0}}\mathbb E_{a\sim\pi(\cdot\mid s)}[A^{\pi'}(s,a)]Vπ(s0​)−Vπ′(s0​)=1−γ1​Es∼ds0​π​​Ea∼π(⋅∣s)​[Aπ′(s,a)].
  2. (7), the gradient of the direct parameterization: ∂Vπ(μ)/∂π(a∣s)=11−γdμπ(s)Qπ(s,a)\partial V^\pi(\mu)/\partial\pi(a\mid s)=\frac1{1-\gamma}d^\pi_\mu(s)Q^\pi(s,a)∂Vπ(μ)/∂π(a∣s)=1−γ1​dμπ​(s)Qπ(s,a).
  3. Lemma 4.1 (gradient domination): V⋆(ρ)−Vπ(ρ)≤11−γ∥dρπ⋆/μ∥∞max⁡πˉ(πˉ−π)⊤∇πVπ(μ)V^\star(\rho)-V^\pi(\rho)\le\frac1{1-\gamma}\|d^{\pi^\star}_\rho/\mu\|_\infty\max_{\bar\pi}(\bar\pi-\pi)^\top\nabla_\pi V^\pi(\mu)V⋆(ρ)−Vπ(ρ)≤1−γ1​∥dρπ⋆​/μ∥∞​maxπˉ​(πˉ−π)⊤∇π​Vπ(μ), together with the sharper form with dμπd^\pi_\mudμπ​ in place of (1−γ)μ(1-\gamma)\mu(1−γ)μ.
  4. Lemma D.3 (smoothness): ∥∇πVπ(s0)−∇πVπ′(s0)∥2≤2γ∣A∣(1−γ)3∥π−π′∥2\|\nabla_\pi V^\pi(s_0)-\nabla_\pi V^{\pi'}(s_0)\|_2\le\frac{2\gamma|\mathcal A|}{(1-\gamma)^3}\|\pi-\pi'\|_2∥∇π​Vπ(s0​)−∇π​Vπ′(s0​)∥2​≤(1−γ)32γ∣A∣​∥π−π′∥2​.
  5. Theorem E.1(3) (Beck 2017, Theorem 10.15): projected gradient descent with step 1/β1/\beta1/β on a β\betaβ-smooth function over a closed convex set has min⁡t<T∥Gη(xt)∥≤2β(f(x0)−f(x∗))/T\min_{t<T}\|G^\eta(x_t)\|\le\sqrt{2\beta(f(x_0)-f(x^*))}/\sqrt Tmint<T​∥Gη(xt​)∥≤2β(f(x0​)−f(x∗))​/T​, with GηG^\etaGη the gradient mapping.
  6. Proposition B.1: a gradient mapping of norm at most ϵ\epsilonϵ at π\piπ makes the next iterate π+\pi^+π+ ϵ(ηβ+1)\epsilon(\eta\beta+1)ϵ(ηβ+1)-stationary over feasible unit directions.

Significance

The theorem shows that, for the simplest constrained parameterization, a first-order method finds a globally optimal policy at a polynomial rate in spite of non-concavity. The guarantee holds for every performance distribution ρ\rhoρ at once, and it isolates the role of exploration in a single quantity, the mismatch coefficient; Section 4.3 of the paper shows that without a well-covering μ\muμ gradient methods can need exponentially many steps. Lemma 4.1 and the smoothness bound are reused across the rest of the paper, and the performance difference lemma underlies essentially all of its analyses.

All results here are proved in the paper, with Theorem E.1 and Theorem E.2 cited from Beck (2017) and Ghadimi–Lan (2016). None of them has a machine-checked proof on the platform. A formal development provides a verified link between the policy gradient expression of the direct parameterization and a standard nonconvex projected-gradient rate, and a reusable formal library of discounted visitation distributions, the performance difference identity, and projected gradient methods on Euclidean spaces.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "projected gradient ascent converges to a stationary point, and stationary points are optimal", fails on both counts as stated. Stationary points of Vπ(μ)V^\pi(\mu)Vπ(μ) need not be optimal when μ\muμ does not cover the relevant states; the quantitative replacement is gradient domination, which only controls suboptimality through the mismatch coefficient. The convergence rate itself requires smoothness of the value as a function of the policy table, which is a bound on second derivatives of a matrix inverse (I−γPπ)−1(I-\gamma P_\pi)^{-1}(I−γPπ​)−1 with the dependence (1−γ)−3(1-\gamma)^{-3}(1−γ)−3 and the factor ∣A∣|\mathcal A|∣A∣ made explicit. Finally, the near-stationarity delivered by the gradient-mapping rate is at the next iterate, not the current one, which is why the conclusion is over t∈{0,…,T}t\in\{0,\dots,T\}t∈{0,…,T}. On the Lean side, the value is an infinite series in the policy entries, so its differentiability and the exact gradient formula have to be established for a function defined on the whole parameter space.

Formalization scope

Policies are parameter vectors in EuclideanSpace ℝ (S × A), so norms are ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and Mathlib's gradient is ∇π\nabla_\pi∇π​; the objective π↦Vπ(μ)\pi\mapsto V^\pi(\mu)π↦Vπ(μ) is defined on the whole space and is only ever evaluated, with its gradient, at policies. The MDP layer (transition kernels, policies, VπV^\piVπ, QπQ^\piQπ, occupation distributions, optimal policies) is the published FoundationsML.ReinforcementLearning library; VπV^\piVπ is the unnormalized discounted sum. The projection is any map satisfying the nearest-point property. The optimal policy is a hypothesis IsOptimalPolicy (optimal from every state), not a supremum over all functions.

Conventions committed to:

  • The mismatch coefficient is any constant DDD with dρπ⋆(s)≤Dμ(s)d^{\pi^\star}_\rho(s)\le D\mu(s)dρπ⋆​(s)≤Dμ(s) for all sss; this avoids Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 and is equivalent to the page's statement when the coefficient is finite.
  • γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 are explicit hypotheses of the goal (the step size divides by γ\gammaγ, the threshold by ϵ\epsilonϵ).
  • The goal concludes ∃ t≤T\exists\,t\le T∃t≤T. The printed min⁡t<T\min_{t<T}mint<T​ fails at T=1T=1T=1 (one state, two actions with rewards 111 and 000, γ=0.001\gamma=0.001γ=0.001, ϵ=1/2\epsilon=1/2ϵ=1/2, initial policy on the bad action); the proof on p. 50 establishes the range 0≤t≤T0\le t\le T0≤t≤T.
  • Proposition B.1 bounds the directions feasible at π+\pi^+π+, as its proof does; Theorem E.1 assumes smoothness on CCC only and uses the radicand 2β(f(x0)−f(x∗))2\beta(f(x_0)-f(x^*))2β(f(x0​)−f(x∗)) of Beck and of p. 49.

A formalization that defines the update through formula (7), that assumes gradient domination or smoothness as hypotheses of the goal, or that takes the gradient off the simplex where the value series may diverge, would trivialize the goal; the goal mentions none of these, and (7) is a milestone theorem.

A complete development needs: summability and differentiability of the value series near the simplex; the performance difference lemma; the Euclidean projection inequality on a closed convex set; the descent lemma for functions smooth on a convex set; and the gradient-mapping argument. The projection and gradient-mapping results are independent of reinforcement learning and reusable. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of Theorem E.2 (Ghadimi–Lan) as a stepping stone to Proposition B.1.

Selected references

  • A. Agarwal, S. M. Kakade, J. D. Lee, G. Mahajan, On the Theory of Policy Gradient Methods: Optimality, Approximation, and Distribution Shift, JMLR 22(98), 2021; arXiv:1908.00261v5. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.00261
  • A. Beck, First-Order Methods in Optimization, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization, SIAM, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611974997
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Accelerated gradient methods for nonconvex nonlinear and stochastic programming, Mathematical Programming 156, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0871-8
  • S. Kakade, J. Langford, Approximately optimal approximate reinforcement learning, ICML 2002. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/645531.656005
  • B. Scherrer, M. Geist, Local Policy Search in a Convex Space and Conservative Policy Iteration as Boosted Policy Search, ECML PKDD 2014, pp. 35–50 (arXiv version: https://arxiv.org/abs/1306.1520)
  • R. J. Williams, Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning, Machine Learning 8, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992696
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing 2: Certainty Equivalent Pricing Fails to Converge to the Optimal Price with Positive ProbabilityResearch Paper

Why myopic pricing is a problem

A seller who does not know how demand responds to price has to learn the demand curve from its own sales while it is selling. The most natural policy is certainty equivalent pricing (also called myopic pricing or passive learning): after every period, estimate the unknown demand parameters from all data collected so far, and charge the price that would be optimal if the estimates were the truth. It is simple, uses all data, and is what a price manager would do without further thought.

den Boer and Zwart (Management Science 60(3):770–783, 2014) show that this policy can fail. In the linear-demand, Gaussian-noise model, the prices it produces fail to converge to the optimal price with positive probability: the policy is not strongly consistent. The result motivates the paper's main contribution, controlled variance pricing, which adds just enough price dispersion to keep learning (treated in the companion mission of this series).

The phenomenon has a history in adaptive control:

  • 1976. Anderson and Taylor study the linear system yt=a0+a1xt+ϵty_t = a_0 + a_1x_t + \epsilon_tyt​=a0​+a1​xt​+ϵt​ controlled by a certainty equivalent rule that steers yty_tyt​ to a target, and examine by simulation the statistical properties of the least squares estimates it produces (Econometrica 44(6), 1976).
  • 1982. Lai and Robbins (Adv. Appl. Math. 3(1), 1982) prove that there are parameter values for which the certainty equivalent controls converge with positive probability to a value different from the optimal control.
  • 2014. den Boer and Zwart adapt the argument to revenue maximization with linear demand, without the conditions Lai and Robbins place on the initial inputs and the input bounds: any two different initial prices in [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] give the failure with positive probability.

Setting

A monopolist sells one product in periods t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,… at prices ptp_tpt​ from an interval [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] with 0<pl<ph0 < p_l < p_h0<pl​<ph​. The demand in period ttt is

dt=a0(0)+a1(0)pt+et,d_t = a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)} p_t + e_t ,dt​=a0(0)​+a1(0)​pt​+et​,

where e1,e2,…e_1, e_2, \dotse1​,e2​,… are independent N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2) random variables. The parameters are unknown to the seller and satisfy σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0, a0(0)>0a_0^{(0)} > 0a0(0)​>0, a1(0)<0a_1^{(0)} < 0a1(0)​<0, a0(0)+a1(0)ph≥0a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p_h \ge 0a0(0)​+a1(0)​ph​≥0. The expected revenue at price ppp is r(p,a0,a1)=p(a0+a1p)r(p, a_0, a_1) = p(a_0 + a_1p)r(p,a0​,a1​)=p(a0​+a1​p), maximized at the optimal price

popt=−a0(0)2a1(0),pl<popt<ph.p_{\mathrm{opt}} = -\frac{a_0^{(0)}}{2a_1^{(0)}}, \qquad p_l < p_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_h .popt​=−2a1(0)​a0(0)​​,pl​<popt​<ph​.

Certainty equivalent pricing charges two different initial prices p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​ in [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​]. After t≥2t \ge 2t≥2 periods it computes the least squares estimates a^t=(a^0t,a^1t)\hat a_t = (\hat a_{0t}, \hat a_{1t})a^t​=(a^0t​,a^1t​), the solution of the normal equations ∑i≤t(1,pi)T(di−a^0t−a^1tpi)=0\sum_{i \le t}(1, p_i)^{\mathsf T}(d_i - \hat a_{0t} - \hat a_{1t}p_i) = 0∑i≤t​(1,pi​)T(di​−a^0t​−a^1t​pi​)=0, and charges

pt+1=arg⁡max⁡p∈[pl,ph]p (a^0t+a^1tp),p_{t+1} = \arg\max_{p \in [p_l, p_h]} p\,(\hat a_{0t} + \hat a_{1t}p),pt+1​=argp∈[pl​,ph​]max​p(a^0t​+a^1t​p),

with pt+1=php_{t+1} = p_hpt+1​=ph​ when the estimated slope a^1t\hat a_{1t}a^1t​ is nonnegative.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

P(pt↛popt)>0.P\big(p_t \not\to p_{\mathrm{opt}}\big) > 0 .P(pt​→popt​)>0.

The goal states only the failure of convergence, for every admissible parameter and every pair of different initial prices; it does not fix where the prices go.

Stronger: the prices stick at the boundary

P(pt=ph for all t≥3)>0.P\big(p_t = p_h \ \text{for all } t \ge 3\big) > 0 .P(pt​=ph​ for all t≥3)>0.

This is what the paper's argument establishes; since popt<php_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_hpopt​<ph​ it implies the goal.

Milestones

The milestones are the displayed steps of the appendix proof, in attack order: the determinant of the coefficient matrix of the linear system (12); the bound P(sup⁡t≥3∣(t−2)−1∑i=3tei∣>ϵ)≤8σ2ϵ−2<1P(\sup_{t \ge 3}|(t-2)^{-1}\sum_{i=3}^t e_i| > \epsilon) \le 8\sigma^2\epsilon^{-2} < 1P(supt≥3​∣(t−2)−1∑i=3t​ei​∣>ϵ)≤8σ2ϵ−2<1 for ϵ>8 σ\epsilon > \sqrt 8\,\sigmaϵ>8​σ; positivity of the probability of an explicit event AδA_\deltaAδ​ on the noise for large δ\deltaδ; the case t=2t = 2t=2 (the first fitted line pushes p3p_3p3​ to php_hph​); the representation a^t−a(0)=(eˉt−pˉtCt/Vt, Ct/Vt)\hat a_t - a^{(0)} = (\bar e_t - \bar p_tC_t/V_t,\ C_t/V_t)a^t​−a(0)=(eˉt​−pˉ​t​Ct​/Vt​, Ct​/Vt​) of the least squares error; recursive and closed forms of VtV_tVt​ and CtC_tCt​; and the deterministic induction that every noise path in AδA_\deltaAδ​ keeps the price at php_hph​ forever.

Significance

The result is the standard counterexample to certainty equivalence in dynamic pricing. It shows that estimation and optimization cannot be separated naively: a policy that always exploits its current estimate can lock itself into a price at which the data no longer move the estimate enough to correct it. Every later policy in this literature that forces exploration (controlled variance pricing, semi-myopic policies, constrained iterated least squares) is designed against this failure, and its necessity is argued by pointing to results of this kind.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it adds:

  • a verified pathwise analysis of the least squares recursion along a price path, reusable for other proofs about adaptive estimation with two parameters;
  • a verified maximal bound for running means of i.i.d. Gaussian noise, of the kind used in many consistency proofs;
  • a clean probabilistic statement of the failure, against which consistency results for exploration policies can later be contrasted.

Difficulty

The obvious heuristic, "with positive probability the first two observations are so noisy that the fitted slope is wrong", is not enough: one bad estimate is corrected by later data unless the policy stops generating informative data. The proof has to control the whole infinite future. It does so by showing that on a single event, defined through the first two noise values and a uniform bound on all later running means, the price stays at php_hph​ forever, which requires the closed form of the least squares estimate along a price path that is constant from period 3 on. That event involves infinitely many noise variables, so its probability is positive only through a maximal inequality, and independence between (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) and the later noise. A second subtlety is the choice of constants: the size of the band δ\deltaδ enters the conditions on (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​), so the order in which δ\deltaδ and the set of admissible (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) are chosen matters (the printed proof picks them in a circular order; a non-circular choice exists).

Formalization scope

  • Model. CVPricing.CertEquiv.Model bundles pl,ph,a0(0),a1(0),σp_l, p_h, a_0^{(0)}, a_1^{(0)}, \sigmapl​,ph​,a0(0)​,a1(0)​,σ with the standing assumptions of §2 as fields, including pl<popt<php_l < p_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_hpl​<popt​<ph​ (the paper's neighbourhood assumption specialized to linear demand). The noise is the referenced published definition RobustBooking.Shared.GaussianNoise (measurable, mutually independent, each N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2)); its Lean index kkk is period k+1k+1k+1, so the paper's eie_iei​ is ε (i - 1).
  • Policy. cePrice is a deterministic recursion on a noise path, so the random price process is obtained by evaluating it at ω\omegaω. Periods are 1-based. The least squares estimate is the referenced KeskinZeevi.SufficientConditions.lsEstimateOf, the solution of the normal equations (4), unique whenever p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​. The certainty equivalent rule is the projection of −a^0t/(2a^1t)-\hat a_{0t}/(2\hat a_{1t})−a^0t​/(2a^1t​) onto [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] when a^1t<0\hat a_{1t} < 0a^1t​<0, and php_hph​ when a^1t≥0\hat a_{1t} \ge 0a^1t​≥0; the latter is the convention the paper's proof adopts for wrong-signed estimates.
  • Corrected slips. The definition of the event AAA is printed with "δ∣eˉt∣≤δ\delta|\bar e_t| \le \deltaδ∣eˉt​∣≤δ" (read ∣eˉt∣≤δ|\bar e_t| \le \delta∣eˉt​∣≤δ) and with its second line missing a factor δ\deltaδ on the term (2ph−p1−p2)(2p_h - p_1 - p_2)(2ph​−p1​−p2​); both are restored as in (12) and the last display of the proof. The intercept of the first fitted line is printed without a0(0)a_0^{(0)}a0(0)​; the correct intercept is stated, and the printed condition remains sufficient for p3=php_3 = p_hp3​=ph​.
  • WLOG. The steps of the proof assume p1<p2p_1 < p_2p1​<p2​ and are stated under that ordering; the goal and the stronger statement cover p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​.
  • No trivialization. The goal is a statement about the Gaussian law of the noise: a theorem that exhibits one bad noise path, or that assumes P(A)>0P(A) > 0P(A)>0, does not prove it. The event in the goal is a set of outcomes whose measurability is not asserted.
  • Welcome contributions. Kolmogorov's maximal inequality for sums of independent square-integrable variables; least squares identities for two-parameter regression; the independence argument separating (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) from the later noise.

Selected references

  • A. V. den Boer, B. Zwart, Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing, Management Science 60(3):770–783, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1788
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Iterated least squares in multiperiod control, Advances in Applied Mathematics 3(1):50–73, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8858(82)80005-5
  • T. W. Anderson, J. B. Taylor, Some experimental results on the statistical properties of least squares estimates in control problems, Econometrica 44(6):1289–1302, 1976. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914261
  • Y. S. Chow, H. Teicher, Probability Theory: Independence, Interchangeability, Martingales, 3rd ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1950-7
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Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 1: Square-Root LASSO Is Wasserstein DRO — the Worst-Case Squared Loss over D_c(P, P_n) ≤ δ Equals (√MSE_n(β) + √δ‖β‖_p)²Research Paper

Motivation

Regularized least squares is the standard tool of high-dimensional linear regression. The square-root LASSO of Belloni, Chernozhukov and Wang (Biometrika, 2011) minimizes MSEn(β)+λ∥β∥1\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \lambda\|\beta\|_1MSEn​(β)​+λ∥β∥1​. Unlike the LASSO, its optimal regularization parameter does not depend on the unknown noise level. Regularization is usually justified through sparsity or bias–variance arguments. Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) give a different justification. The square-root LASSO, and every ℓp\ell_pℓp​-penalized square-root least-squares estimator, is exactly a distributionally robust estimator. It minimizes the worst-case expected square loss over all data distributions within a given optimal-transport distance of the empirical distribution.

The rest of the paper builds on this representation: the radius of the transport ball is the regularization parameter, which the paper's Robust Wasserstein Profile function selects by a statistical criterion (mission 3 of this series). The duality theorem underneath, Proposition 1, is due to Blanchet and Murthy (Math. Oper. Res., 2019). Closely related representations for logistic regression appear in Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (NeurIPS 2015), where they are approximate. The cost function introduced in this paper makes them exact.

Setting

The training data are n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 pairs (X1,Y1),…,(Xn,Yn)(X_1, Y_1), \dots, (X_n, Y_n)(X1​,Y1​),…,(Xn​,Yn​) with predictors Xi∈RdX_i \in \mathbb R^dXi​∈Rd and responses Yi∈RY_i \in \mathbb RYi​∈R. No distributional assumption is made; the data are fixed vectors. The empirical distribution is Pn=1n∑i=1nδ(Xi,Yi)P_n = \frac1n \sum_{i=1}^n \delta_{(X_i, Y_i)}Pn​=n1​∑i=1n​δ(Xi​,Yi​)​. For β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd the square loss is l(x,y;β)=(y−βTx)2l(x, y; \beta) = (y - \beta^T x)^2l(x,y;β)=(y−βTx)2 and the mean square error is MSEn(β)=1n∑i=1n(Yi−βTXi)2\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta) = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n (Y_i - \beta^T X_i)^2MSEn​(β)=n1​∑i=1n​(Yi​−βTXi​)2.

A cost function ccc assigns to two points z,wz, wz,w of Rd×R\mathbb R^d \times \mathbb RRd×R a value c(z,w)∈[0,∞]c(z, w) \in [0, \infty]c(z,w)∈[0,∞], the cost of moving a unit of mass from zzz to www. The optimal transport cost between probability measures PPP and QQQ is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on pairs (U,W), πU=P, πW=Q}.(7)D_c(P, Q) = \inf\Big\{ \mathbb E_\pi[c(U, W)] : \pi \text{ a probability measure on pairs } (U, W),\ \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q \Big\}. \qquad (7)Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on pairs (U,W), πU​=P, πW​=Q}.(7)

The worst-case expected loss at radius δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 is sup⁡P:Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[l(X,Y;β)]\sup_{P : D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P[l(X, Y; \beta)]supP:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δ​EP​[l(X,Y;β)], and the distributionally robust regression problem (8) minimizes it over β\betaβ.

Two costs are used. With q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞]:

  • the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, c((x,y),(u,v))=∥(x,y)−(u,v)∥q2c((x, y), (u, v)) = \|(x, y) - (u, v)\|_q^2c((x,y),(u,v))=∥(x,y)−(u,v)∥q2​ (Proposition 2);
  • the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​, where (14) Nq((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥qN_q((x, y), (u, v)) = \|x - u\|_qNq​((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q​ if y=vy = vy=v and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise. Under this cost the responses cannot be moved, and only the predictors are perturbed (Theorem 1).

The exponent ppp is the dual of qqq, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1, and βˉ=(−β,1)\bar\beta = (-\beta, 1)βˉ​=(−β,1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 11)

For the cost c=Nq2c = N_q^2c=Nq2​, every δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 and every β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd,

sup⁡P: Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[(Y−βTX)2]=(MSEn(β)+δ ∥β∥p)2,\sup_{P :\, D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(Y - \beta^T X)^2\big] = \Big(\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \sqrt\delta\,\|\beta\|_p\Big)^2 ,P:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(Y−βTX)2]=(MSEn​(β)​+δ​∥β∥p​)2,

and consequently

inf⁡β∈Rdsup⁡P: Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[(Y−βTX)2]=inf⁡β∈Rd(MSEn(β)+δ ∥β∥p)2.\inf_{\beta \in \mathbb R^d} \sup_{P :\, D_c(P, P_n) \le \delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(Y - \beta^T X)^2\big] = \inf_{\beta \in \mathbb R^d} \Big(\sqrt{\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)} + \sqrt\delta\,\|\beta\|_p\Big)^2 .β∈Rdinf​P:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(Y−βTX)2]=β∈Rdinf​(MSEn​(β)​+δ​∥β∥p​)2.

The second identity is the printed theorem; the first is what its proof establishes for each β\betaβ. The goal states both.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): strong duality. For a lower semicontinuous cost vanishing on the diagonal, an upper semicontinuous loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, the worst-case expected loss equals min⁡γ≥0{γδ+1n∑iφγ(Xi,Yi)}\min_{\gamma \ge 0} \{\gamma\delta + \frac1n \sum_i \varphi_\gamma(X_i, Y_i)\}minγ≥0​{γδ+n1​∑i​φγ​(Xi​,Yi​)}, with φγ(z)=sup⁡u{l(u)−γc(u,z)}\varphi_\gamma(z) = \sup_u \{l(u) - \gamma c(u, z)\}φγ​(z)=supu​{l(u)−γc(u,z)} (11).
  2. (28) (pp. 28–29): the closed form of φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ for the square loss and the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost.
  3. (29) and the display after it (p. 29): inf⁡γ>b2{γδ+γγ−b2M}=(M+bδ)2\inf_{\gamma > b^2} \{\gamma\delta + \frac{\gamma}{\gamma - b^2} M\} = (\sqrt M + b\sqrt\delta)^2infγ>b2​{γδ+γ−b2γ​M}=(M​+bδ​)2 for M,b,δ≥0M, b, \delta \ge 0M,b,δ≥0.
  4. Proposition 2 (p. 10): the analogue of the goal for the squared ℓq\ell_qℓq​ cost, with ∥βˉ∥p\|\bar\beta\|_p∥βˉ​∥p​ in place of ∥β∥p\|\beta\|_p∥β∥p​ (13).
  5. Outline of the proof of Theorem 1, last display (p. 29): the closed form of φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ for the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 identifies ℓp\ell_pℓp​-penalized square-root least squares with a min–max problem over data distributions. For q=∞q = \inftyq=∞, p=1p = 1p=1 the minimizers are those of the square-root LASSO with λ=δ\lambda = \sqrt\deltaλ=δ​. The regularization parameter therefore acquires a meaning: it is the square root of the transport budget an adversary may spend perturbing the predictors. This is the basis of the paper's choice of δ\deltaδ by the Robust Wasserstein Profile function (§4), and of the interpretation of regularized estimators as robust to covariate perturbations. Proposition 2 shows that letting the adversary also move the responses changes the penalty to ∥(−β,1)∥p\|(-\beta, 1)\|_p∥(−β,1)∥p​, which is why the label-preserving cost NqN_qNq​ is needed for an exact match.

Formalizing it. All results are proved on paper; none is formalized. A complete development gives a machine-checked strong-duality theorem for optimal-transport balls with possibly infinite costs (Proposition 1), two explicit worst-case computations, and corrected boundary cases of the closed forms (28) and the outline display, which print +∞+\infty+∞ for all γ≤∥βˉ∥p2\gamma \le \|\bar\beta\|_p^2γ≤∥βˉ​∥p2​ although the value can be finite at equality. The corrections do not affect the theorems.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails in two places. The first is the duality step: the supremum ranges over all Borel probability measures on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1 within transport cost δ\deltaδ, an infinite-dimensional set that is not compact in any convenient topology, with a loss that is unbounded above. Exchanging the supremum with the Lagrange multiplier of the budget constraint is Proposition 1, a theorem in its own right (Blanchet–Murthy), and its attainment claim needs δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.

The second is the cost NqN_qNq​, which is +∞+\infty+∞ off {y=v}\{y = v\}{y=v}, so the standard Wasserstein duality theorems, which assume a finite metric cost, do not apply. The degenerate cases β=0\beta = 0β=0, MSEn(β)=0\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta) = 0MSEn​(β)=0, δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, where the objective in γ\gammaγ does not blow up at both ends, must be covered separately.

Formalization scope

  • Spaces. A data point is a pair in (Fin d → ℝ) × ℝ with the product σ-algebra and topology. Proposition 2's cost uses the stacked vector in Fin (d+1) → ℝ (response last, built with Fin.snoc), and βˉ\bar\betaβˉ​ is the stacked vector of (−β,1)(-\beta, 1)(−β,1).
  • Norms. ∥⋅∥q\|\cdot\|_q∥⋅∥q​ and ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ are the norms of PiLp, with exponents in ℝ≥0∞, so q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ (the square-root LASSO case) is included. The exponents are linked by p.HolderConjugate q, and q∈(1,∞]q \in (1, \infty]q∈(1,∞] throughout. Theorem 1 does not print a range for qqq; the range is taken from Proposition 2, which the paper calls essentially the same result.
  • Transport cost and worst case. Costs are ℝ≥0∞-valued, and DcD_cDc​ is an infimum over probability couplings with both marginals fixed. Expectations of the nonnegative losses are lower Lebesgue integrals, and the worst case is a supremum in ℝ≥0∞ over all probability measures in the ball. No integrability side condition removes measures from the ball. Identities with a real right-hand side are stated after embedding it with ENNReal.ofReal.
  • The empirical distribution is the published definition WassersteinDRO.Regularization.empiricalDistribution, applied to i↦(Xi,Yi)i \mapsto (X_i, Y_i)i↦(Xi​,Yi​), with n>0n > 0n>0.
  • φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​. A point at infinite cost contributes −∞-\infty−∞ for every γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, including γ=0\gamma = 0γ=0, as in the paper's treatment of NqN_qNq​. With the convention 0⋅∞=00 \cdot \infty = 00⋅∞=0 instead, Proposition 1's minimum would not be attained for the cost Nq2N_q^2Nq2​ at β=0\beta = 0β=0.
  • Proposition 1 is stated for a nonnegative loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; both are restrictions of the page, recorded in the item.
  • Corrections. (28) and the outline display are stated with their corrected boundary cases. The one-dimensional lemma behind (29) is stated as a greatest lower bound over γ>b2\gamma > b^2γ>b2, including b=0b = 0b=0, M=0M = 0M=0, δ=0\delta = 0δ=0.

A formalization in which the transport infimum did not fix both marginals, allowed sub-probability couplings, or used a Bochner integral would make the worst case trivially +∞+\infty+∞ or 000. The conventions above rule this out: at δ=0\delta = 0δ=0 the ball is {Pn}\{P_n\}{Pn​} and both sides of the goal equal MSEn(β)\mathrm{MSE}_n(\beta)MSEn​(β).

The work needs Kantorovich-type duality for lower semicontinuous costs on Rm\mathbb R^mRm (absent from Mathlib), Hölder's inequality with its equality case for PiLp, and elementary one-variable optimization. The duality theorem and the transport-cost definition are reusable beyond this mission: mission 2 of this series (classification) uses Proposition 1 with the cost NqN_qNq​, ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1. Contributions that prove Proposition 1, or its weak-duality half, are particularly welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying distributional model risk via optimal transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • A. Belloni, V. Chernozhukov, L. Wang, Square-root lasso: pivotal recovery of sparse signals via conic programming, Biometrika 98(4), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asr043
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally robust logistic regression, NeurIPS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 1: The Dual-Subgradient Meta-Algorithm Returns a 2ε-Approximate Robust Solution or Certifies Infeasibility within ⌈G²D²/ε²⌉ Oracle CallsResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization protects a decision against every realization of uncertain data in a prescribed uncertainty set. The standard approach replaces the uncertain constraints by a deterministic robust counterpart and solves that counterpart directly (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui, Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The counterpart is often a harder problem than the original: a robust linear program with ellipsoidal uncertainty becomes a second-order cone program, and a robust quadratic program can become a semidefinite program. A practitioner who has an efficient, specialised solver for the nominal problem may therefore have no efficient solver for its robust version.

Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) ask whether the robust problem can be solved by repeatedly calling a solver of the nominal problem, with the number of calls independent of the dimension. Their first answer, the dual-subgradient meta-algorithm of §3.1, does so whenever the constraints are concave in the noise and the uncertainty set is convex. It is a primal–dual scheme: an online-learning algorithm picks the noise, and the nominal solver answers. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3.

Setting

Let D⊆Rn\mathcal D\subseteq\mathbb R^nD⊆Rn be a convex domain, U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd a convex uncertainty set, and f1,…,fm:Rn×Rd→Rf_1,\dots,f_m:\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rf1​,…,fm​:Rn×Rd→R constraint functions. The robust feasibility problem (3) is

∃ x∈D:fi(x,ui)≤0∀ui∈U, i=1,…,m.\exists\,x\in\mathcal D:\qquad f_i(x,u_i)\le 0\quad\forall u_i\in\mathcal U,\ i=1,\dots,m .∃x∈D:fi​(x,ui​)≤0∀ui​∈U, i=1,…,m.

(An objective is handled by binary search on its value, so feasibility is the core question.) A point x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate solution if fi(x,u)≤ϵf_i(x,u)\le\epsilonfi​(x,u)≤ϵ for all u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U and all iii.

An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle Oϵ\mathcal O_\epsilonOϵ​ (Figure 1) takes a noise vector u=(u1,…,um)∈Umu=(u_1,\dots,u_m)\in\mathcal U^mu=(u1​,…,um​)∈Um and either returns some x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D with fi(x,ui)≤ϵf_i(x,u_i)\le\epsilonfi​(x,ui​)≤ϵ for all iii, or answers "infeasible", which it may do only if no x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D has fi(x,ui)≤0f_i(x,u_i)\le 0fi​(x,ui​)≤0 for all iii.

The standing assumptions of §3.1 are: each fi(⋅,u)f_i(\cdot,u)fi​(⋅,u) is convex on D\mathcal DD; each fi(x,⋅)f_i(x,\cdot)fi​(x,⋅) is concave on U\mathcal UU for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D; D≥∥u−v∥2D\ge\|u-v\|_2D≥∥u−v∥2​ for all u,v∈Uu,v\in\mathcal Uu,v∈U; and ∥∇ufi(x,u)∥2≤G\|\nabla_u f_i(x,u)\|_2\le G∥∇u​fi​(x,u)∥2​≤G for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D, u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U. Write PPP for the Euclidean projection onto U\mathcal UU.

Algorithm 1 sets T=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉T=\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceilT=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ and η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​), starts from u10,…,um0∈Uu^0_1,\dots,u^0_m\in\mathcal Uu10​,…,um0​∈U, and for t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T updates

uit=P(uit−1+η ∇ufi(xt−1,uit−1)),xt=Oϵ(u1t,…,umt),u^t_i=P\bigl(u^{t-1}_i+\eta\,\nabla_u f_i(x^{t-1},u^{t-1}_i)\bigr),\qquad x^t=\mathcal O_\epsilon(u^t_1,\dots,u^t_m),uit​=P(uit−1​+η∇u​fi​(xt−1,uit−1​)),xt=Oϵ​(u1t​,…,umt​),

stopping with "infeasible" as soon as the oracle says so, and otherwise returning xˉ=1T∑t=1Txt\bar x=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T x^txˉ=T1​∑t=1T​xt. In Lean these are alg1T, alg1Eta, alg1U, alg1X, alg1Output and alg1Calls in the namespace OracleRO.DualSubgrad.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 7)

For every ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle,

output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬ ∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi(x,u)≤0,\text{output}=\text{"infeasible"}\ \Longrightarrow\ \neg\,\exists x\in\mathcal D\ \forall i\ \forall u\in\mathcal U:\ f_i(x,u)\le 0,output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi​(x,u)≤0, output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,\text{output}=\bar x\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar x\in\mathcal D\ \text{ and }\ f_i(\bar x,u)\le 2\epsilon\ \ \forall i,\ \forall u\in\mathcal U,output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi​(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,

and the number of oracle calls is at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 5, Zinkevich 2003): projected online gradient ascent with step η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​) on concave rewards has regret ∑tft(x∗)−∑tft(xt)≤GDT\sum_t f_t(x^*)-\sum_t f_t(x_t)\le GD\sqrt T∑t​ft​(x∗)−∑t​ft​(xt​)≤GDT​ for every x∗x^*x∗ in the decision set.
  2. (6) (p. 7): if a point is returned, 1T∑t=1Tfi(xt,uit)≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le\epsilonT1​∑t=1T​fi​(xt,uit​)≤ϵ for every iii.
  3. (7) (p. 8): for every iii and u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U, 1T∑tfi(xt,u)−1T∑tfi(xt,uit)≤GD/T≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)-\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le GD/\sqrt T\le\epsilonT1​∑t​fi​(xt,u)−T1​∑t​fi​(xt,uit​)≤GD/T​≤ϵ.
  4. Final inequality of the proof (p. 8): fi(xˉ,u)≤1T∑tfi(xt,u)f_i(\bar x,u)\le\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)fi​(xˉ,u)≤T1​∑t​fi​(xt,u) for u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any approximate solver of the nominal problem into an approximate solver of its robust counterpart, at a cost of ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ solver calls, a number that depends on the geometry of U\mathcal UU and the sensitivity of the constraints to the noise but not on nnn, ddd or mmm. It is the prototype of the paper's oracle-based reductions: the same primal–dual template, with a different online learner, gives the dual-perturbation algorithm of §3.2–3.3 for non-convex uncertainty sets, and the applications of §4 (robust linear programs, quadratic programs, semidefinite programs) instantiate it.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development adds a checked statement of the reduction with an explicit call count in place of the paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), and a reusable regret bound for projected online gradient ascent on concave rewards (Lemma 1), which the paper quotes from Zinkevich without proof and which many other online-learning results rest on.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for the dual side fails at one point: in round ttt the primal point xtx^txt is computed from utu^tut, so the reward fi(xt,⋅)f_i(x^t,\cdot)fi​(xt,⋅) that the dual player faces depends on its own current move. A regret bound that assumed rewards fixed in advance, or drawn independently of the learner's play, would not apply. Lemma 1 must be used in its adversarial form, valid for every sequence of reward functions, including adaptively chosen ones. A second point is that the projection step requires the variational characterization of a nearest point in a convex set, which a mere "map into U\mathcal UU" does not provide.

Formalization scope

Points are elements of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin k), so every norm is the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm. The projection is a predicate IsProjOnto U P (each P(y)P(y)P(y) is a nearest point of U\mathcal UU to yyy), not a construction; the oracle is a function (Fin m → E d) → Option (E n) with none for "infeasible", constrained by the predicate IsApproxOracle on inputs in Um\mathcal U^mUm. The goal is quantified over every oracle meeting that specification. The gradient ∇ufi(x,u)\nabla_u f_i(x,u)∇u​fi​(x,u) is a given map gradU with HasGradientAt at points of U\mathcal UU; no differentiability in xxx is assumed. Rounds are indexed by natural numbers with index 000 for the initialization; the starting primal point x0∈Dx^0\in\mathcal Dx0∈D, used by the first update and left undefined by the algorithm, is an input. Hypotheses D>0D>0D>0 and G>0G>0G>0 are added so that η\etaη and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 are meaningful. Maxima over U\mathcal UU are stated as "for every u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U".

Explicit instantiations and corrections:

  • The paper's "O(G2D2/ϵ2)O(G^2D^2/\epsilon^2)O(G2D2/ϵ2) calls" is stated as at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ calls (one call per round, TTT rounds).
  • Lemma 1's "G≥max⁡t∥ft(xt)∥G\ge\max_t\|f_t(x_t)\|G≥maxt​∥ft​(xt​)∥" is read as the gradient bound ∥∇ft(xt)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x_t)\|\le G∥∇ft​(xt​)∥≤G, as the same sentence describes it.
  • The proof's "Combining (10) and (12)" refers to (6) and (7).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: an oracle specification under which "infeasible" is never returned, or an output that is not the average of the oracle's answers, would not be Theorem 3. The "infeasible" conclusion is about the robust problem, not the nominal one.

A complete development needs the variational inequality for nearest points in a convex set, the gradient (supergradient) inequality for a concave function differentiable at a point of a convex set, Zinkevich's telescoping argument, and Jensen's inequality for finite averages. The first two and Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014; Operations Research 63(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361v1
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results 4: A Fixed Boolean Combination of k Classes Has Gaussian Complexity at Most 2 Σ_j G_n(F_j)Research Paper

Motivation

Data-dependent risk bounds in statistical learning replace combinatorial quantities such as the VC dimension with averages of how well a function class can fit random noise on the observed sample. Bartlett and Mendelson's article (JMLR 3, 2002) established these averages, the Rademacher and Gaussian complexities, as a general tool: a risk bound (their Theorem 8) holds with a complexity penalty, and the complexity of a complicated class can be bounded through structural results that relate it to the complexities of simpler classes.

This mission formalizes two of those structural results, both stated for Gaussian complexities. The first (Theorem 14) controls a Lipschitz function of several real-valued classes at once, the vector-valued analogue of the classical contraction principle. The second (Theorem 16) controls an arbitrary fixed boolean combination of classes of classifiers, such as intersections, unions or majority votes of a fixed number of base classifiers, by the sum of the complexities of the components. Such combinations arise whenever a classifier is assembled from simpler ones, for instance in decision lists, small decision trees over a base class, or voting schemes.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a set, μ\muμ a probability measure on it, and n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 a sample size. For a class FFF of functions X→R\mathcal X \to \mathbb RX→R and a sample x=(x1,…,xn)x = (x_1, \dots, x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​), the empirical Gaussian complexity is

G^n(F)(x)=E[sup⁡f∈F∣2n∑i=1ngif(xi)∣],\hat G_n(F)(x) = \mathbb E\left[\sup_{f\in F}\left|\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^n g_i f(x_i)\right|\right],G^n​(F)(x)=E[f∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n​gi​f(xi​)​],

with g1,…,gng_1, \dots, g_ng1​,…,gn​ independent standard Gaussian N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) variables, and the Gaussian complexity is Gn(F)=E G^n(F)(X1,…,Xn)G_n(F) = \mathbb E\, \hat G_n(F)(X_1, \dots, X_n)Gn​(F)=EG^n​(F)(X1​,…,Xn​) for X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ i.i.d. with law μ\muμ (Definition 2, p. 464). In Lean these are empiricalGaussian n F x and gaussianComplexity μ n F.

Three constructions of classes appear.

  • Direct sum. With A=Rm\mathcal A = \mathbb R^mA=Rm carrying the Euclidean distance, a class FFF of maps X→A\mathcal X \to \mathcal AX→A is a subset of the direct sum of real classes F1,…,FmF_1, \dots, F_mF1​,…,Fm​ when each f∈Ff \in Ff∈F is x↦(f1(x),…,fm(x))x \mapsto (f_1(x), \dots, f_m(x))x↦(f1​(x),…,fm​(x)) with fi∈Fif_i \in F_ifi​∈Fi​ (SubsetDirectSum F Fi).
  • Composition. For ϕ:Y×A→R\phi : \mathcal Y \times \mathcal A \to \mathbb Rϕ:Y×A→R, ϕ∘f\phi \circ fϕ∘f is (x,y)↦ϕ(y,f(x))(x, y) \mapsto \phi(y, f(x))(x,y)↦ϕ(y,f(x)) and ϕ∘F\phi\circ Fϕ∘F collects these (compClass φ F).
  • Boolean combination. For g:{±1}k→{±1}g : \{\pm1\}^k \to \{\pm1\}g:{±1}k→{±1} and classes F1,…,FkF_1, \dots, F_kF1​,…,Fk​ of {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}-valued functions, g(F1,…,Fk)={x↦g(f1(x),…,fk(x)):fj∈Fj}g(F_1, \dots, F_k) = \{x \mapsto g(f_1(x), \dots, f_k(x)) : f_j \in F_j\}g(F1​,…,Fk​)={x↦g(f1​(x),…,fk​(x)):fj​∈Fj​} (boolComb g F).

A centred Gaussian process indexed by a finite set III is a family (Xi)i∈I(X_i)_{i \in I}(Xi​)i∈I​ of real random variables whose finite-dimensional laws are jointly Gaussian with mean zero; ∥Xi−Xj∥2=(E(Xi−Xj)2)1/2\|X_i - X_j\|_2 = (\mathbb E(X_i - X_j)^2)^{1/2}∥Xi​−Xj​∥2​=(E(Xi​−Xj​)2)1/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 16 (p. 472)

For a fixed boolean function g:{±1}k→{±1}g : \{\pm1\}^k \to \{\pm1\}g:{±1}k→{±1} with k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and classes F1,…,FkF_1, \dots, F_kF1​,…,Fk​ of {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}-valued functions,

Gn(g(F1,…,Fk))≤2∑j=1kGn(Fj).G_n\bigl(g(F_1, \dots, F_k)\bigr) \le 2 \sum_{j=1}^k G_n(F_j).Gn​(g(F1​,…,Fk​))≤2j=1∑k​Gn​(Fj​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 13 (p. 471), the comparison of Gaussian processes as printed: if ∥Xi−Xj∥2≤∥Yi−Yj∥2\|X_i - X_j\|_2 \le \|Y_i - Y_j\|_2∥Xi​−Xj​∥2​≤∥Yi​−Yj​∥2​ for all i,ji, ji,j, then Esup⁡iXi≤2 Esup⁡iYi\mathbb E\sup_i X_i \le 2\,\mathbb E\sup_i Y_iEsupi​Xi​≤2Esupi​Yi​.
  2. Theorem 14 (p. 471): if each ϕ(y,⋅)\phi(y, \cdot)ϕ(y,⋅) is LLL-Lipschitz for the Euclidean distance, passes through the origin, and ϕ\phiϕ is uniformly bounded, then for every sample (xk,yk)k≤n(x_k, y_k)_{k \le n}(xk​,yk​)k≤n​,
G^n(ϕ∘F)≤2L∑i=1mG^n(Fi).\hat G_n(\phi \circ F) \le 2L \sum_{i=1}^m \hat G_n(F_i).G^n​(ϕ∘F)≤2Li=1∑m​G^n​(Fi​).
  1. The extension of ggg (proof of Theorem 16, p. 472): g(x)=(1−∥x−a∥)g(a)g(x) = (1 - \|x - a\|)g(a)g(x)=(1−∥x−a∥)g(a) when ∥x−a∥<1\|x - a\| < 1∥x−a∥<1 for a cube vertex aaa, and 000 otherwise, is well defined, extends ggg, maps into [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], vanishes at 000 and is 111-Lipschitz.

Significance

Theorem 16 turns any bound on the Gaussian complexity of base classes into a bound for a fixed boolean combination of them, at the cost of a factor 222 on the sum of their complexities, whatever ggg and kkk are. Together with the comparison between Gaussian and Rademacher complexities (Lemma 4 of the paper) and the risk bound of Theorem 8, it yields generalization bounds for classifiers built as combinations of base classifiers. Theorem 14 is the general tool: it handles any Lipschitz loss of a vector-valued predictor, such as multiclass margins, through the complexities of its coordinate classes.

All three results are proved in the paper (Lemma 13 is classical and cited from Pisier). None of them is formalized on Prove2Me; the finite-dimensional Sudakov–Fernique inequality, with constant 111, is (HighDimProb.RandomProcesses.sudakov_fernique_finite_dim). This mission produces machine-checked versions of the vector contraction for Gaussian averages and of the boolean-combination bound, and records the corrections the printed statements need.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to Theorem 14 compares two Gaussian processes indexed by the class, but Definition 2 takes the supremum of an absolute value scaled by 2/n2/n2/n, while Gaussian comparison inequalities bound the expected supremum of the process itself. The printed proof equates the two; done carefully, the comparison with the printed constant 222 of Lemma 13 gives only 4L4L4L. Reaching the printed 2L2L2L requires a comparison with constant 111 and an argument that handles the absolute value. A second difficulty is that the classes may be infinite and unbounded, so expected suprema must be handled as extended-valued quantities, and the reduction to finite classes ("without loss of generality") must be justified. For Theorem 16 the extension of ggg must be checked to be Lipschitz across the boundaries of the tents in the Euclidean, not the sup, norm.

Formalization scope

The source is the published JMLR article (vol. 3, 2002, pp. 463–482), not the COLT 2001 version, whose numbering differs.

  • Complexities in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. G^n\hat G_nG^n​ and GnG_nGn​ are lower Lebesgue integrals of an ENNReal supremum against N(0,1)⊗nN(0,1)^{\otimes n}N(0,1)⊗n and μ⊗n\mu^{\otimes n}μ⊗n. An unbounded class has complexity +∞+\infty+∞; a real-valued supremum or Bochner integral would silently return 000 there and make the upper bounds false, so that encoding is ruled out. No finiteness or boundedness of any class is assumed.
  • A=Rm\mathcal A = \mathbb R^mA=Rm is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), so "Lipschitz" refers to the Euclidean distance as printed. Using Fin m → ℝ (the sup distance) would change the theorem.
  • {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1} is encoded as Z×\mathbb Z^\timesZ× coerced to R\mathbb RR.
  • Lemma 13: centred processes added. As printed the lemma is false: Xi≡5X_i \equiv 5Xi​≡5, Yi≡0Y_i \equiv 0Yi​≡0 satisfy the hypothesis. Both processes are assumed mean zero, as in Slepian's lemma. The two processes may live on different probability spaces; the index set is any finite nonempty type. The constant 222 is kept as printed.
  • Theorem 14: printed proof loose, statement kept. The constant 2L2L2L is kept as printed; the statement is true via the constant-111 comparison. The uniform-boundedness hypothesis on ϕ\phiϕ is kept as printed although the extended-valued formulation does not need it.
  • Theorem 16 and the extension: k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 added. For k=0k = 0k=0 the boolean function is a constant ±1\pm1±1, the right side is 000, and the left side is E2n∣∑igi∣>0\mathbb E\frac2n|\sum_i g_i| > 0En2​∣∑i​gi​∣>0; also the extension would have g(0)=±1g(0) = \pm1g(0)=±1.
  • Theorem 16: measurability guard. Each G^n(Fj)\hat G_n(F_j)G^n​(Fj​) is assumed almost-everywhere measurable as a function of the sample, so that the expectation of ∑jG^n(Fj)\sum_j \hat G_n(F_j)∑j​G^n​(Fj​) is the sum of the expectations. The paper does not discuss measurability.

A complete development needs Gaussian comparison for finite index sets (available on the platform), the reduction from infinite to finite classes for extended-valued suprema, and elementary Euclidean geometry of the cube. The first two are reusable for every Gaussian-average argument in learning theory. Proofs of any milestone, and of the constant-111 variant of Lemma 13 transported between probability spaces, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2002), 463–482. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/bartlett02a.html
  • G. Pisier, The Volume of Convex Bodies and Banach Space Geometry, Cambridge University Press, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511662454
  • M. Ledoux, M. Talagrand, Probability in Banach Spaces: Isoperimetry and Processes, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20212-4
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem 2: When (f₁+ε)n ≤ k ≤ (1−fₘ−ε)n, Every Non-Adaptive Policy Has Regret at Least M√nResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-secretary problem is the basic model of selecting under a budget from a stream of offers. Hiring a fixed number of candidates, accepting a fixed number of requests for a perishable resource, and admitting customers into a capacity-limited service all have this structure. Each item must be accepted or rejected on arrival, and the comparison point is the offline decision maker, who sees the whole sequence and keeps the best kkk items. The gap between the two expected values is the regret.

A common class of heuristics in revenue management and online resource allocation does not react to the realised history. These policies fix in advance, period by period, a probability of accepting each type of item, and then follow it until the budget runs out; static bid-price and randomised-acceptance rules are of this kind (Talluri and van Ryzin 2004). Arlotto and Gurvich (arXiv:1710.07719v2, Theorem 1) show that when abilities take finitely many values, an adaptive policy has regret bounded uniformly in the horizon nnn and the budget kkk. Their Theorem 3 shows that the restriction to non-adaptive policies costs order n\sqrt nn​ over a wide range of budgets. Read together, these two results separate adaptive from non-adaptive control by an unbounded factor. This mission formalizes the non-adaptive half.

Setting

There are nnn candidates with abilities X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​, independent and identically distributed on mmm values 0<am<am−1<⋯<a10<a_m<a_{m-1}<\dots<a_10<am​<am−1​<⋯<a1​, with masses fj=P(X1=aj)>0f_j=\mathbb P(X_1=a_j)>0fj​=P(X1​=aj​)>0 and ∑jfj=1\sum_jf_j=1∑j​fj​=1. Write ϵ=12min⁡jfj\epsilon=\tfrac12\min_jf_jϵ=21​minj​fj​ and Fˉ(aj)=f1+⋯+fj−1\bar F(a_j)=f_1+\dots+f_{j-1}Fˉ(aj​)=f1​+⋯+fj−1​. The budget is kkk, with 0≤k≤n0\le k\le n0≤k≤n.

The offline value is

Voff∗(n,k)=E[max⁡{∑tXtσt:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑tσt≤k}].V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)=\mathbb E\Big[\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_tX_t\sigma_t:\sigma\in\{0,1\}^n,\ \sum_t\sigma_t\le k\Big\}\Big].Voff∗​(n,k)=E[max{∑t​Xt​σt​:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑t​σt​≤k}].

A non-adaptive policy is a matrix π={pj,t∈[0,1]}\pi=\{p_{j,t}\in[0,1]\}π={pj,t​∈[0,1]}. At time ttt, if budget remains and Xt=ajX_t=a_jXt​=aj​, the candidate is selected with probability pj,tp_{j,t}pj,t​, independently of everything else. The selection coins BtB_tBt​ are then independent Bernoulli variables with qt=E[Bt]=∑jpj,tfjq_t=\mathbb E[B_t]=\sum_jp_{j,t}f_jqt​=E[Bt​]=∑j​pj,t​fj​. The policy selects until kkk coins have come up. Its value Vonπ(n,k)V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)Vonπ​(n,k) is the expected total ability selected, and

Vna∗(n,k)=sup⁡πVonπ(n,k).V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k)=\sup_{\pi}V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k).Vna∗​(n,k)=πsup​Vonπ​(n,k).

The deterministic relaxation replaces the random counts Zjn=#{t:Xt=aj}Z^n_j=\#\{t:X_t=a_j\}Zjn​=#{t:Xt​=aj​} by their means. Its value is

DR(n,k)=max⁡{∑jajsj:0≤sj≤nfj, ∑jsj≤k},DR(n,k)=\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_ja_js_j:0\le s_j\le nf_j,\ \sum_js_j\le k\Big\},DR(n,k)=max{∑j​aj​sj​:0≤sj​≤nfj​, ∑j​sj​≤k},

with solution sj∗=min⁡{nfj,(k−nFˉ(aj))+}s^*_j=\min\{nf_j,(k-n\bar F(a_j))_+\}sj∗​=min{nfj​,(k−nFˉ(aj​))+​}. The index policy takes its probabilities from s∗s^*s∗: pj,t=sj∗/(nfj)p_{j,t}=s^*_j/(nf_j)pj,t​=sj∗​/(nfj​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 25)

For every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0, mmm and aaa there is M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0M=M(\epsilon,m,a)>0M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0 such that, for all masses with 12min⁡jfj=ϵ\tfrac12\min_jf_j=\epsilon21​minj​fj​=ϵ and all (n,k)(n,k)(n,k) with (f1+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm−ϵ)n(f_1+\epsilon)n\le k\le(1-f_m-\epsilon)n(f1​+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm​−ϵ)n,

Mn≤Voff∗(n,k)−Vna∗(n,k).M\sqrt n\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k).Mn​≤Voff∗​(n,k)−Vna∗​(n,k).

The constant does not depend on the masses beyond ϵ\epsilonϵ, nor on nnn or kkk.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2 (p. 8): binomial overshoot, E[(B−k)+]≤1/(4ε)\mathbb E[(B-k)_+]\le1/(4\varepsilon)E[(B−k)+​]≤1/(4ε) when kkk exceeds the mean by εn\varepsilon nεn, and the symmetric bound.
  • Remark 2 (pp. 10–11): s∗s^*s∗ solves the relaxation, and Voff∗≤DRV^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le DRVoff∗​≤DR.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 25): the index policy satisfies DR−Vnaid≤ε−1a1nDR-V^{\mathrm{id}}_{\mathrm{na}}\le\varepsilon^{-1}a_1\sqrt nDR−Vnaid​≤ε−1a1​n​ when k/n≥εk/n\ge\varepsilonk/n≥ε, so the order n\sqrt nn​ is attained.
  • Lemma 5 (p. 26): for a centred Bernoulli sum with variance ς2\varsigma^2ς2, E[(±N−Υς)+]≥β1ς−(2+32)\mathbb E[(\pm N-\Upsilon\varsigma)_+]\ge\beta_1\varsigma-(2+3\sqrt2)E[(±N−Υς)+​]≥β1​ς−(2+32​) with β1(Υ)>0\beta_1(\Upsilon)>0β1​(Υ)>0, and E[(N+Υς)+2]≤β2ς2\mathbb E[(N+\Upsilon\varsigma)_+^2]\le\beta_2\varsigma^2E[(N+Υς)+2​]≤β2​ς2.
  • Lemma 7 (p. 27): an optimal non-adaptive policy exists, and any optimal one has f1/2≤qt≤1−fm/2f_1/2\le q_t\le1-f_m/2f1​/2≤qt​≤1−fm​/2 outside 2Mn2M\sqrt n2Mn​ periods, so ∑tqt(1−qt)≥f1fm4(n−2Mn)\sum_tq_t(1-q_t)\ge\tfrac{f_1f_m}4(n-2M\sqrt n)∑t​qt​(1−qt​)≥4f1​fm​​(n−2Mn​).
  • Lemma 4 (p. 25): for k≤n(f1−ϵ)k\le n(f_1-\epsilon)k≤n(f1​−ϵ) the non-adaptive regret is at most a2/(4ϵ)a_2/(4\epsilon)a2​/(4ϵ).
  • Lemma 8 and Proposition 6 (p. 40): E[Sjn]=sj∗±Mn\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]=s^*_j\pm M\sqrt nE[Sjn​]=sj∗​±Mn​, and 0≤DR−Voff∗≤Mn0\le DR-V^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le M\sqrt n0≤DR−Voff∗​≤Mn​ in general and ≤a1m/(4ϵ′)\le a_1m/(4\epsilon')≤a1​m/(4ϵ′) when k/nk/nk/n is ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ away from the jump points of Fˉ\bar FFˉ.

Significance

Theorem 3 is the lower half of the separation in Theorem 1 of the paper. The Budget-Ratio policy and the dynamic-programming policy have regret O(1)O(1)O(1), uniformly in (n,k)(n,k)(n,k), while every non-adaptive policy has regret Ω(n)\Omega(\sqrt n)Ω(n​) when k/nk/nk/n lies strictly between f1f_1f1​ and 1−fm1-f_m1−fm​. The order n\sqrt nn​ of fluid and static randomised policies is therefore a property of the whole class, not of a poor choice inside it. Lemma 4 shows that the budget range cannot be removed: with a small budget a non-adaptive policy is as good as any.

The result is proved in the source but has not been machine-checked. A complete development would formalize, inside one finite probabilistic model: the binomial overshoot bound, a uniform anti-concentration estimate for Bernoulli sums, the structure of optimal non-adaptive policies, and the comparison with the offline sort. The source's proof of Theorem 3 also relies on a lemma that fails as printed (see Formalization scope), so a formal proof would close a real gap in the published argument.

Difficulty

The upper bound of order n\sqrt nn​ (Lemma 3) follows from a variance computation. The lower bound must hold for every non-adaptive policy, including time-varying ones, and the obvious argument does not cover them. That argument compares a policy with the index policy and shows the index policy loses n\sqrt nn​. A policy can, however, differ from the index policy by order n\sqrt nn​ in its expected selection counts and still have regret of the same order. The step "small regret forces sj(π)≈sj∗s_j(\pi)\approx s^*_jsj​(π)≈sj∗​", which the source uses, is exactly the step that fails.

What has to be shown is that the selection count ∑tBt\sum_tB_t∑t​Bt​ of an optimal policy fluctuates by order n\sqrt nn​, uniformly in the policy. A policy that runs out of budget early then misses top-value candidates late in the horizon, and one that keeps budget wastes slots. Both effects must be bounded below by a multiple of n\sqrt nn​ that is uniform over all masses with the same ϵ\epsilonϵ. Lemma 5 needs a normal approximation with an explicit, qqq-independent error. Lemma 7 needs the existence of an optimal policy, which is a maximisation over a continuum of matrices.

Formalization scope

The source is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1710.07719v2 (1 June 2018). Its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

  • Indices. The value and mass vectors are a f : Fin m → ℝ. Lean index jjj is the paper's index j+1j+1j+1, so a 0 =a1=a_1=a1​ is the largest value and f (Fin.rev 0) =fm=f_m=fm​ is the mass of the smallest. The standing assumptions of Sec. 2 are IsValues a (strictly decreasing, positive) and IsMasses f (positive, summing to one).
  • Expectations. All expectations are finite sums over outcome sequences. For the offline problem these are x:Fin n→Fin mx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathrm{Fin}\,mx:Finn→Finm with weight ∏tfxt\prod_tf_{x_t}∏t​fxt​​. For a non-adaptive policy they are pairs (Xt,Bt)(X_t,B_t)(Xt​,Bt​) with weight ∏tfxt pxt,tbt(1−pxt,t)1−bt\prod_tf_{x_t}\,p_{x_t,t}^{b_t}(1-p_{x_t,t})^{1-b_t}∏t​fxt​​pxt​,tbt​​(1−pxt​,t​)1−bt​. No measure theory is used.
  • Selection rule. A candidate is selected iff its coin is 111 and fewer than kkk earlier coins were 111. This equals the paper's "up to the stopping time ν\nuν" for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. At k=0k=0k=0 the printed ν=1\nu=1ν=1 would allow a selection without budget, and the feasible rule is used.
  • Suprema. Vna∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}Vna∗​ is a supremum over all matrices with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1], not over 0/10/10/1 matrices or the index policy alone. DRDRDR is the supremum of its linear program; it is not defined by the formula ∑jajsj∗\sum_ja_js^*_j∑j​aj​sj∗​, which is a milestone.
  • Index policy. jidj_{\mathrm{id}}jid​ is the largest index with Fˉ(ajid)≤k/n\bar F(a_{j_{\mathrm{id}}})\le k/nFˉ(ajid​​)≤k/n. As printed the defining inequality has no solution at k=nk=nk=n.
  • Constants. Each constant is quantified after (ϵ,m,a)(\epsilon,m,a)(ϵ,m,a) and before (f,n,k)(f,n,k)(f,n,k). The goal's MMM and Lemma 5's β1\beta_1β1​ are strictly positive; with M=0M=0M=0 the goal would reduce to Vna∗≤Voff∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Vna∗​≤Voff∗​. Theorem 3 is posed for all nnn in the range, as printed, without a threshold on nnn. Lemma 2 is stated in the multiplied form (p+ε)n≤k(p+\varepsilon)n\le k(p+ε)n≤k of its proof. Lemma 4 adds m≥2m\ge2m≥2, so that a2a_2a2​ exists.
  • Disclosed gaps in the source. The source's proof of Theorem 3 relies on a lemma that fails as printed (Lemma 6, p. 26), so Lemma 6 is not part of this mission. The statement of Theorem 3 is posed as in the source. The printed argument for the second inequality of Lemma 7's (36) does not go through, and a corrected one also uses am−1a_{m-1}am−1​. Lemma 7's constant is therefore quantified after all of aaa.

Contributions of any kind are welcome. Reusable pieces include binomial overshoot bounds, anti-concentration for sums of independent Bernoulli variables (for example via a Wasserstein normal approximation, which Mathlib lacks), and compactness arguments for optimal randomised policies.

Selected references

  • A. Arlotto, I. Gurvich, Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem, arXiv:1710.07719v2, 2018; Stochastic Systems 9(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.07719v2
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • N. Ross, Fundamentals of Stein's method, Probability Surveys 8, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1214/11-PS182
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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