Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering 1: Minimax MMSE Estimation over a Gaussian Wasserstein Ball Is a Finite Convex SDP with an Affine Robust EstimatorResearch Paper
Motivation
The Kalman filter estimates the hidden state of a linear system from noisy observations. At every step it solves a minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation problem: given a joint normal distribution of a signal and an observation , find the estimator minimizing . The answer, the conditional mean, is optimal only if the model distribution is correct, and in practice the system matrices and noise covariances are estimated and misspecified.
Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Nguyen, Kuhn and Mohajerin Esfahani (arXiv:1809.08830, NeurIPS 2018) replace the single model by a set of plausible models: all normal distributions within type-2 Wasserstein distance of a nominal normal distribution. The estimator is then chosen to minimize the worst-case mean square error over this set. Their Theorem 2.5 shows that this robust estimation problem, although posed over an infinite-dimensional space of estimators and a nonconvex set of distributions, has the same value as a finite convex program over covariance matrices, and that the robust estimator is affine. Applied at every time step, this yields the Wasserstein distributionally robust Kalman filter of the paper's §4.
This mission formalizes Theorem 2.5 together with the minimax theorem (Theorem 2.3) and the lemmas of its proof.
Setting
Let and . A point of is with signal and observation . A symmetric matrix is partitioned as . () denotes the positive semidefinite (definite) matrices, means , , and is the positive semidefinite square root of .
Normal distributions. is the normal distribution on with mean and covariance ; singular is allowed. is the set of all of them.
Wasserstein distance. For distributions on ,
the infimum ranging over all distributions on with marginals and .
Ambiguity set. Fix , , the nominal distribution and a radius . The Wasserstein ambiguity set is
Robust estimation. Let be the set of all measurable functions . The distributionally robust MMSE problem is
and a distributionally robust MMSE estimator is a attaining the outer infimum. Nature's problem exchanges the two optimizations; a attaining its outer supremum is a least favorable prior.
The finite program. With , program (5) maximizes over (with , ) subject to
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.5 (p. 3)
- The optimal value of (2) equals the optimal value of (5).
- If is optimal in (5), then
is a distributionally robust MMSE estimator. 3. For the same , lies in and is a least favorable prior.
Existence and uniqueness of an optimal are not part of the statement.
Milestones, in the order of the proof
- Proposition 2.2 (Gelbrich formula): for ,
- Lemma A.1: the closed form of and its unique maximizer.
- (A.1b): under a fixed normal distribution, affine estimators achieve the minimum mean square error over .
- Theorem 2.3 (minimax theorem): .
- Lemma A.2: the maximizer of under the Wasserstein-type trace constraint, and .
- (A.6): for , , uniquely at .
Significance
The result. Theorem 2.5 gives the robust estimator in closed form from one optimal covariance matrix, and identifies the least favorable distribution as a normal distribution with the nominal mean. Together with Theorem 2.3 it shows that the pair is a saddle point: the robust estimator is the Bayesian estimator for the least favorable prior. For the program has the single feasible point and the estimator reduces to the classical conditional mean, so the theorem contains the Kalman update as a special case. The finite program is what makes the robust filter of §4 computable; the paper's §3 (formalized in the companion mission of this series) solves it with a Frank–Wolfe method.
Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. No part of it is machine-checked yet. The Gelbrich formula for normal distributions (Proposition 2.2) is cited from the literature and has no formal proof in Mathlib; neither does Lemma A.1, cited from earlier work of the same authors. A closely related statement for a Wasserstein ball over all distributions around an elliptical nominal (Kuhn et al. 2019, Theorem 25) is posed on the platform as WassersteinDRO.Shrinkage.distributionally_robust_mmse_estimator; it is a different theorem, since the ambiguity set there is convex and contains non-normal distributions.
Difficulty
The ambiguity set is not convex, because a mixture of normal distributions is generally not normal. The standard route to a minimax equality, Sion's theorem, needs convexity on nature's side and therefore does not apply to (2) directly; the obvious attempt to interchange the infimum and the supremum fails at this step. The space of measurable estimators is infinite-dimensional, and the Wasserstein constraint is an infimum over couplings, so a proof must pass to finite-dimensional descriptions on both sides (means and covariances for , affine maps for ) and justify each passage. The matrix-analytic parts involve the nonlinear map , for which Mathlib has square roots but little calculus.
Formalization scope
- is
EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n ⊕ Fin m); theSum.inlcoordinates are , theSum.inrcoordinates are , and the blocks of a matrix aretoBlocks₁₁,toBlocks₁₂,toBlocks₂₁,toBlocks₂₂. - is Mathlib's
multivariateGaussian c SwithS.PosSemidef; only the nominal is required to be positive definite. - is the published coupling-based
WassersteinDRO.Shrinkage.wassersteinDistance 2in . The ambiguity set is defined through it, not through the Gelbrich formula; the formula is Proposition 2.2, a milestone. - Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals in , with no integrability guard. A non-integrable estimator therefore has infinite risk and cannot lower the infimum through a junk value.
- The values of (2) and of nature's problem are in ; the value of (5) is the published
sdpValueinEReal, and the two are compared through the coercion. - is passed as a real number that is the least eigenvalue of .
- "Equivalent" in Theorem 2.5 is read as the three claims above. A version that asserts only equality of values, or optimality of among affine estimators only, is weaker than the theorem and is not the goal.
- Lemma A.2 carries the added hypothesis , without which its algebraic equation has no admissible root.
A complete development needs the Gelbrich formula for (possibly degenerate) normal distributions, conditional means of jointly normal vectors, a minimax theorem for convex–concave functions on compact sets, Lagrangian duality for a convex semidefinite program, and calculus of the positive semidefinite square root. The first three are reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them as separate results are welcome.
Selected references
- S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering, NeurIPS 2018; arXiv:1809.08830v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.08830
- M. Gelbrich, On a formula for the L² Wasserstein metric between measures on Euclidean and Hilbert spaces, Mathematische Nachrichten 147, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1002/mana.19901470121
- V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Distributionally robust inverse covariance estimation, arXiv:1802.01981, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01981
- D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, V. A. Nguyen, S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization: theory and applications in machine learning, INFORMS TutORials, 2019; arXiv:1908.08729. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08729
- D. P. Bertsekas, Convex Optimization Theory, Athena Scientific, 2009.