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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results 4: A Fixed Boolean Combination of k Classes Has Gaussian Complexity at Most 2 Σ_j G_n(F_j)Research Paper

Motivation

Data-dependent risk bounds in statistical learning replace combinatorial quantities such as the VC dimension with averages of how well a function class can fit random noise on the observed sample. Bartlett and Mendelson's article (JMLR 3, 2002) established these averages, the Rademacher and Gaussian complexities, as a general tool: a risk bound (their Theorem 8) holds with a complexity penalty, and the complexity of a complicated class can be bounded through structural results that relate it to the complexities of simpler classes.

This mission formalizes two of those structural results, both stated for Gaussian complexities. The first (Theorem 14) controls a Lipschitz function of several real-valued classes at once, the vector-valued analogue of the classical contraction principle. The second (Theorem 16) controls an arbitrary fixed boolean combination of classes of classifiers, such as intersections, unions or majority votes of a fixed number of base classifiers, by the sum of the complexities of the components. Such combinations arise whenever a classifier is assembled from simpler ones, for instance in decision lists, small decision trees over a base class, or voting schemes.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a set, μ\muμ a probability measure on it, and n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 a sample size. For a class FFF of functions X→R\mathcal X \to \mathbb RX→R and a sample x=(x1,…,xn)x = (x_1, \dots, x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​), the empirical Gaussian complexity is

G^n(F)(x)=E[sup⁡f∈F∣2n∑i=1ngif(xi)∣],\hat G_n(F)(x) = \mathbb E\left[\sup_{f\in F}\left|\frac2n\sum_{i=1}^n g_i f(x_i)\right|\right],G^n​(F)(x)=E[f∈Fsup​​n2​i=1∑n​gi​f(xi​)​],

with g1,…,gng_1, \dots, g_ng1​,…,gn​ independent standard Gaussian N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) variables, and the Gaussian complexity is Gn(F)=E G^n(F)(X1,…,Xn)G_n(F) = \mathbb E\, \hat G_n(F)(X_1, \dots, X_n)Gn​(F)=EG^n​(F)(X1​,…,Xn​) for X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ i.i.d. with law μ\muμ (Definition 2, p. 464). In Lean these are empiricalGaussian n F x and gaussianComplexity μ n F.

Three constructions of classes appear.

  • Direct sum. With A=Rm\mathcal A = \mathbb R^mA=Rm carrying the Euclidean distance, a class FFF of maps X→A\mathcal X \to \mathcal AX→A is a subset of the direct sum of real classes F1,…,FmF_1, \dots, F_mF1​,…,Fm​ when each f∈Ff \in Ff∈F is x↦(f1(x),…,fm(x))x \mapsto (f_1(x), \dots, f_m(x))x↦(f1​(x),…,fm​(x)) with fi∈Fif_i \in F_ifi​∈Fi​ (SubsetDirectSum F Fi).
  • Composition. For ϕ:Y×A→R\phi : \mathcal Y \times \mathcal A \to \mathbb Rϕ:Y×A→R, ϕ∘f\phi \circ fϕ∘f is (x,y)↦ϕ(y,f(x))(x, y) \mapsto \phi(y, f(x))(x,y)↦ϕ(y,f(x)) and ϕ∘F\phi\circ Fϕ∘F collects these (compClass φ F).
  • Boolean combination. For g:{±1}k→{±1}g : \{\pm1\}^k \to \{\pm1\}g:{±1}k→{±1} and classes F1,…,FkF_1, \dots, F_kF1​,…,Fk​ of {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}-valued functions, g(F1,…,Fk)={x↦g(f1(x),…,fk(x)):fj∈Fj}g(F_1, \dots, F_k) = \{x \mapsto g(f_1(x), \dots, f_k(x)) : f_j \in F_j\}g(F1​,…,Fk​)={x↦g(f1​(x),…,fk​(x)):fj​∈Fj​} (boolComb g F).

A centred Gaussian process indexed by a finite set III is a family (Xi)i∈I(X_i)_{i \in I}(Xi​)i∈I​ of real random variables whose finite-dimensional laws are jointly Gaussian with mean zero; ∥Xi−Xj∥2=(E(Xi−Xj)2)1/2\|X_i - X_j\|_2 = (\mathbb E(X_i - X_j)^2)^{1/2}∥Xi​−Xj​∥2​=(E(Xi​−Xj​)2)1/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 16 (p. 472)

For a fixed boolean function g:{±1}k→{±1}g : \{\pm1\}^k \to \{\pm1\}g:{±1}k→{±1} with k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and classes F1,…,FkF_1, \dots, F_kF1​,…,Fk​ of {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1}-valued functions,

Gn(g(F1,…,Fk))≤2∑j=1kGn(Fj).G_n\bigl(g(F_1, \dots, F_k)\bigr) \le 2 \sum_{j=1}^k G_n(F_j).Gn​(g(F1​,…,Fk​))≤2j=1∑k​Gn​(Fj​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 13 (p. 471), the comparison of Gaussian processes as printed: if ∥Xi−Xj∥2≤∥Yi−Yj∥2\|X_i - X_j\|_2 \le \|Y_i - Y_j\|_2∥Xi​−Xj​∥2​≤∥Yi​−Yj​∥2​ for all i,ji, ji,j, then Esup⁡iXi≤2 Esup⁡iYi\mathbb E\sup_i X_i \le 2\,\mathbb E\sup_i Y_iEsupi​Xi​≤2Esupi​Yi​.
  2. Theorem 14 (p. 471): if each ϕ(y,⋅)\phi(y, \cdot)ϕ(y,⋅) is LLL-Lipschitz for the Euclidean distance, passes through the origin, and ϕ\phiϕ is uniformly bounded, then for every sample (xk,yk)k≤n(x_k, y_k)_{k \le n}(xk​,yk​)k≤n​,
G^n(ϕ∘F)≤2L∑i=1mG^n(Fi).\hat G_n(\phi \circ F) \le 2L \sum_{i=1}^m \hat G_n(F_i).G^n​(ϕ∘F)≤2Li=1∑m​G^n​(Fi​).
  1. The extension of ggg (proof of Theorem 16, p. 472): g(x)=(1−∥x−a∥)g(a)g(x) = (1 - \|x - a\|)g(a)g(x)=(1−∥x−a∥)g(a) when ∥x−a∥<1\|x - a\| < 1∥x−a∥<1 for a cube vertex aaa, and 000 otherwise, is well defined, extends ggg, maps into [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], vanishes at 000 and is 111-Lipschitz.

Significance

Theorem 16 turns any bound on the Gaussian complexity of base classes into a bound for a fixed boolean combination of them, at the cost of a factor 222 on the sum of their complexities, whatever ggg and kkk are. Together with the comparison between Gaussian and Rademacher complexities (Lemma 4 of the paper) and the risk bound of Theorem 8, it yields generalization bounds for classifiers built as combinations of base classifiers. Theorem 14 is the general tool: it handles any Lipschitz loss of a vector-valued predictor, such as multiclass margins, through the complexities of its coordinate classes.

All three results are proved in the paper (Lemma 13 is classical and cited from Pisier). None of them is formalized on Prove2Me; the finite-dimensional Sudakov–Fernique inequality, with constant 111, is (HighDimProb.RandomProcesses.sudakov_fernique_finite_dim). This mission produces machine-checked versions of the vector contraction for Gaussian averages and of the boolean-combination bound, and records the corrections the printed statements need.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to Theorem 14 compares two Gaussian processes indexed by the class, but Definition 2 takes the supremum of an absolute value scaled by 2/n2/n2/n, while Gaussian comparison inequalities bound the expected supremum of the process itself. The printed proof equates the two; done carefully, the comparison with the printed constant 222 of Lemma 13 gives only 4L4L4L. Reaching the printed 2L2L2L requires a comparison with constant 111 and an argument that handles the absolute value. A second difficulty is that the classes may be infinite and unbounded, so expected suprema must be handled as extended-valued quantities, and the reduction to finite classes ("without loss of generality") must be justified. For Theorem 16 the extension of ggg must be checked to be Lipschitz across the boundaries of the tents in the Euclidean, not the sup, norm.

Formalization scope

The source is the published JMLR article (vol. 3, 2002, pp. 463–482), not the COLT 2001 version, whose numbering differs.

  • Complexities in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. G^n\hat G_nG^n​ and GnG_nGn​ are lower Lebesgue integrals of an ENNReal supremum against N(0,1)⊗nN(0,1)^{\otimes n}N(0,1)⊗n and μ⊗n\mu^{\otimes n}μ⊗n. An unbounded class has complexity +∞+\infty+∞; a real-valued supremum or Bochner integral would silently return 000 there and make the upper bounds false, so that encoding is ruled out. No finiteness or boundedness of any class is assumed.
  • A=Rm\mathcal A = \mathbb R^mA=Rm is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), so "Lipschitz" refers to the Euclidean distance as printed. Using Fin m → ℝ (the sup distance) would change the theorem.
  • {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1} is encoded as Z×\mathbb Z^\timesZ× coerced to R\mathbb RR.
  • Lemma 13: centred processes added. As printed the lemma is false: Xi≡5X_i \equiv 5Xi​≡5, Yi≡0Y_i \equiv 0Yi​≡0 satisfy the hypothesis. Both processes are assumed mean zero, as in Slepian's lemma. The two processes may live on different probability spaces; the index set is any finite nonempty type. The constant 222 is kept as printed.
  • Theorem 14: printed proof loose, statement kept. The constant 2L2L2L is kept as printed; the statement is true via the constant-111 comparison. The uniform-boundedness hypothesis on ϕ\phiϕ is kept as printed although the extended-valued formulation does not need it.
  • Theorem 16 and the extension: k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 added. For k=0k = 0k=0 the boolean function is a constant ±1\pm1±1, the right side is 000, and the left side is E2n∣∑igi∣>0\mathbb E\frac2n|\sum_i g_i| > 0En2​∣∑i​gi​∣>0; also the extension would have g(0)=±1g(0) = \pm1g(0)=±1.
  • Theorem 16: measurability guard. Each G^n(Fj)\hat G_n(F_j)G^n​(Fj​) is assumed almost-everywhere measurable as a function of the sample, so that the expectation of ∑jG^n(Fj)\sum_j \hat G_n(F_j)∑j​G^n​(Fj​) is the sum of the expectations. The paper does not discuss measurability.

A complete development needs Gaussian comparison for finite index sets (available on the platform), the reduction from infinite to finite classes for extended-valued suprema, and elementary Euclidean geometry of the cube. The first two are reusable for every Gaussian-average argument in learning theory. Proofs of any milestone, and of the constant-111 variant of Lemma 13 transported between probability spaces, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2002), 463–482. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/bartlett02a.html
  • G. Pisier, The Volume of Convex Bodies and Banach Space Geometry, Cambridge University Press, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511662454
  • M. Ledoux, M. Talagrand, Probability in Banach Spaces: Isoperimetry and Processes, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20212-4
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem 2: When (f₁+ε)n ≤ k ≤ (1−fₘ−ε)n, Every Non-Adaptive Policy Has Regret at Least M√nResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-secretary problem is the basic model of selecting under a budget from a stream of offers. Hiring a fixed number of candidates, accepting a fixed number of requests for a perishable resource, and admitting customers into a capacity-limited service all have this structure. Each item must be accepted or rejected on arrival, and the comparison point is the offline decision maker, who sees the whole sequence and keeps the best kkk items. The gap between the two expected values is the regret.

A common class of heuristics in revenue management and online resource allocation does not react to the realised history. These policies fix in advance, period by period, a probability of accepting each type of item, and then follow it until the budget runs out; static bid-price and randomised-acceptance rules are of this kind (Talluri and van Ryzin 2004). Arlotto and Gurvich (arXiv:1710.07719v2, Theorem 1) show that when abilities take finitely many values, an adaptive policy has regret bounded uniformly in the horizon nnn and the budget kkk. Their Theorem 3 shows that the restriction to non-adaptive policies costs order n\sqrt nn​ over a wide range of budgets. Read together, these two results separate adaptive from non-adaptive control by an unbounded factor. This mission formalizes the non-adaptive half.

Setting

There are nnn candidates with abilities X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​, independent and identically distributed on mmm values 0<am<am−1<⋯<a10<a_m<a_{m-1}<\dots<a_10<am​<am−1​<⋯<a1​, with masses fj=P(X1=aj)>0f_j=\mathbb P(X_1=a_j)>0fj​=P(X1​=aj​)>0 and ∑jfj=1\sum_jf_j=1∑j​fj​=1. Write ϵ=12min⁡jfj\epsilon=\tfrac12\min_jf_jϵ=21​minj​fj​ and Fˉ(aj)=f1+⋯+fj−1\bar F(a_j)=f_1+\dots+f_{j-1}Fˉ(aj​)=f1​+⋯+fj−1​. The budget is kkk, with 0≤k≤n0\le k\le n0≤k≤n.

The offline value is

Voff∗(n,k)=E[max⁡{∑tXtσt:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑tσt≤k}].V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)=\mathbb E\Big[\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_tX_t\sigma_t:\sigma\in\{0,1\}^n,\ \sum_t\sigma_t\le k\Big\}\Big].Voff∗​(n,k)=E[max{∑t​Xt​σt​:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑t​σt​≤k}].

A non-adaptive policy is a matrix π={pj,t∈[0,1]}\pi=\{p_{j,t}\in[0,1]\}π={pj,t​∈[0,1]}. At time ttt, if budget remains and Xt=ajX_t=a_jXt​=aj​, the candidate is selected with probability pj,tp_{j,t}pj,t​, independently of everything else. The selection coins BtB_tBt​ are then independent Bernoulli variables with qt=E[Bt]=∑jpj,tfjq_t=\mathbb E[B_t]=\sum_jp_{j,t}f_jqt​=E[Bt​]=∑j​pj,t​fj​. The policy selects until kkk coins have come up. Its value Vonπ(n,k)V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)Vonπ​(n,k) is the expected total ability selected, and

Vna∗(n,k)=sup⁡πVonπ(n,k).V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k)=\sup_{\pi}V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k).Vna∗​(n,k)=πsup​Vonπ​(n,k).

The deterministic relaxation replaces the random counts Zjn=#{t:Xt=aj}Z^n_j=\#\{t:X_t=a_j\}Zjn​=#{t:Xt​=aj​} by their means. Its value is

DR(n,k)=max⁡{∑jajsj:0≤sj≤nfj, ∑jsj≤k},DR(n,k)=\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_ja_js_j:0\le s_j\le nf_j,\ \sum_js_j\le k\Big\},DR(n,k)=max{∑j​aj​sj​:0≤sj​≤nfj​, ∑j​sj​≤k},

with solution sj∗=min⁡{nfj,(k−nFˉ(aj))+}s^*_j=\min\{nf_j,(k-n\bar F(a_j))_+\}sj∗​=min{nfj​,(k−nFˉ(aj​))+​}. The index policy takes its probabilities from s∗s^*s∗: pj,t=sj∗/(nfj)p_{j,t}=s^*_j/(nf_j)pj,t​=sj∗​/(nfj​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 25)

For every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0, mmm and aaa there is M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0M=M(\epsilon,m,a)>0M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0 such that, for all masses with 12min⁡jfj=ϵ\tfrac12\min_jf_j=\epsilon21​minj​fj​=ϵ and all (n,k)(n,k)(n,k) with (f1+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm−ϵ)n(f_1+\epsilon)n\le k\le(1-f_m-\epsilon)n(f1​+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm​−ϵ)n,

Mn≤Voff∗(n,k)−Vna∗(n,k).M\sqrt n\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k).Mn​≤Voff∗​(n,k)−Vna∗​(n,k).

The constant does not depend on the masses beyond ϵ\epsilonϵ, nor on nnn or kkk.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2 (p. 8): binomial overshoot, E[(B−k)+]≤1/(4ε)\mathbb E[(B-k)_+]\le1/(4\varepsilon)E[(B−k)+​]≤1/(4ε) when kkk exceeds the mean by εn\varepsilon nεn, and the symmetric bound.
  • Remark 2 (pp. 10–11): s∗s^*s∗ solves the relaxation, and Voff∗≤DRV^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le DRVoff∗​≤DR.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 25): the index policy satisfies DR−Vnaid≤ε−1a1nDR-V^{\mathrm{id}}_{\mathrm{na}}\le\varepsilon^{-1}a_1\sqrt nDR−Vnaid​≤ε−1a1​n​ when k/n≥εk/n\ge\varepsilonk/n≥ε, so the order n\sqrt nn​ is attained.
  • Lemma 5 (p. 26): for a centred Bernoulli sum with variance ς2\varsigma^2ς2, E[(±N−Υς)+]≥β1ς−(2+32)\mathbb E[(\pm N-\Upsilon\varsigma)_+]\ge\beta_1\varsigma-(2+3\sqrt2)E[(±N−Υς)+​]≥β1​ς−(2+32​) with β1(Υ)>0\beta_1(\Upsilon)>0β1​(Υ)>0, and E[(N+Υς)+2]≤β2ς2\mathbb E[(N+\Upsilon\varsigma)_+^2]\le\beta_2\varsigma^2E[(N+Υς)+2​]≤β2​ς2.
  • Lemma 7 (p. 27): an optimal non-adaptive policy exists, and any optimal one has f1/2≤qt≤1−fm/2f_1/2\le q_t\le1-f_m/2f1​/2≤qt​≤1−fm​/2 outside 2Mn2M\sqrt n2Mn​ periods, so ∑tqt(1−qt)≥f1fm4(n−2Mn)\sum_tq_t(1-q_t)\ge\tfrac{f_1f_m}4(n-2M\sqrt n)∑t​qt​(1−qt​)≥4f1​fm​​(n−2Mn​).
  • Lemma 4 (p. 25): for k≤n(f1−ϵ)k\le n(f_1-\epsilon)k≤n(f1​−ϵ) the non-adaptive regret is at most a2/(4ϵ)a_2/(4\epsilon)a2​/(4ϵ).
  • Lemma 8 and Proposition 6 (p. 40): E[Sjn]=sj∗±Mn\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]=s^*_j\pm M\sqrt nE[Sjn​]=sj∗​±Mn​, and 0≤DR−Voff∗≤Mn0\le DR-V^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le M\sqrt n0≤DR−Voff∗​≤Mn​ in general and ≤a1m/(4ϵ′)\le a_1m/(4\epsilon')≤a1​m/(4ϵ′) when k/nk/nk/n is ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ away from the jump points of Fˉ\bar FFˉ.

Significance

Theorem 3 is the lower half of the separation in Theorem 1 of the paper. The Budget-Ratio policy and the dynamic-programming policy have regret O(1)O(1)O(1), uniformly in (n,k)(n,k)(n,k), while every non-adaptive policy has regret Ω(n)\Omega(\sqrt n)Ω(n​) when k/nk/nk/n lies strictly between f1f_1f1​ and 1−fm1-f_m1−fm​. The order n\sqrt nn​ of fluid and static randomised policies is therefore a property of the whole class, not of a poor choice inside it. Lemma 4 shows that the budget range cannot be removed: with a small budget a non-adaptive policy is as good as any.

The result is proved in the source but has not been machine-checked. A complete development would formalize, inside one finite probabilistic model: the binomial overshoot bound, a uniform anti-concentration estimate for Bernoulli sums, the structure of optimal non-adaptive policies, and the comparison with the offline sort. The source's proof of Theorem 3 also relies on a lemma that fails as printed (see Formalization scope), so a formal proof would close a real gap in the published argument.

Difficulty

The upper bound of order n\sqrt nn​ (Lemma 3) follows from a variance computation. The lower bound must hold for every non-adaptive policy, including time-varying ones, and the obvious argument does not cover them. That argument compares a policy with the index policy and shows the index policy loses n\sqrt nn​. A policy can, however, differ from the index policy by order n\sqrt nn​ in its expected selection counts and still have regret of the same order. The step "small regret forces sj(π)≈sj∗s_j(\pi)\approx s^*_jsj​(π)≈sj∗​", which the source uses, is exactly the step that fails.

What has to be shown is that the selection count ∑tBt\sum_tB_t∑t​Bt​ of an optimal policy fluctuates by order n\sqrt nn​, uniformly in the policy. A policy that runs out of budget early then misses top-value candidates late in the horizon, and one that keeps budget wastes slots. Both effects must be bounded below by a multiple of n\sqrt nn​ that is uniform over all masses with the same ϵ\epsilonϵ. Lemma 5 needs a normal approximation with an explicit, qqq-independent error. Lemma 7 needs the existence of an optimal policy, which is a maximisation over a continuum of matrices.

Formalization scope

The source is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1710.07719v2 (1 June 2018). Its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

  • Indices. The value and mass vectors are a f : Fin m → ℝ. Lean index jjj is the paper's index j+1j+1j+1, so a 0 =a1=a_1=a1​ is the largest value and f (Fin.rev 0) =fm=f_m=fm​ is the mass of the smallest. The standing assumptions of Sec. 2 are IsValues a (strictly decreasing, positive) and IsMasses f (positive, summing to one).
  • Expectations. All expectations are finite sums over outcome sequences. For the offline problem these are x:Fin n→Fin mx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathrm{Fin}\,mx:Finn→Finm with weight ∏tfxt\prod_tf_{x_t}∏t​fxt​​. For a non-adaptive policy they are pairs (Xt,Bt)(X_t,B_t)(Xt​,Bt​) with weight ∏tfxt pxt,tbt(1−pxt,t)1−bt\prod_tf_{x_t}\,p_{x_t,t}^{b_t}(1-p_{x_t,t})^{1-b_t}∏t​fxt​​pxt​,tbt​​(1−pxt​,t​)1−bt​. No measure theory is used.
  • Selection rule. A candidate is selected iff its coin is 111 and fewer than kkk earlier coins were 111. This equals the paper's "up to the stopping time ν\nuν" for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. At k=0k=0k=0 the printed ν=1\nu=1ν=1 would allow a selection without budget, and the feasible rule is used.
  • Suprema. Vna∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}Vna∗​ is a supremum over all matrices with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1], not over 0/10/10/1 matrices or the index policy alone. DRDRDR is the supremum of its linear program; it is not defined by the formula ∑jajsj∗\sum_ja_js^*_j∑j​aj​sj∗​, which is a milestone.
  • Index policy. jidj_{\mathrm{id}}jid​ is the largest index with Fˉ(ajid)≤k/n\bar F(a_{j_{\mathrm{id}}})\le k/nFˉ(ajid​​)≤k/n. As printed the defining inequality has no solution at k=nk=nk=n.
  • Constants. Each constant is quantified after (ϵ,m,a)(\epsilon,m,a)(ϵ,m,a) and before (f,n,k)(f,n,k)(f,n,k). The goal's MMM and Lemma 5's β1\beta_1β1​ are strictly positive; with M=0M=0M=0 the goal would reduce to Vna∗≤Voff∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Vna∗​≤Voff∗​. Theorem 3 is posed for all nnn in the range, as printed, without a threshold on nnn. Lemma 2 is stated in the multiplied form (p+ε)n≤k(p+\varepsilon)n\le k(p+ε)n≤k of its proof. Lemma 4 adds m≥2m\ge2m≥2, so that a2a_2a2​ exists.
  • Disclosed gaps in the source. The source's proof of Theorem 3 relies on a lemma that fails as printed (Lemma 6, p. 26), so Lemma 6 is not part of this mission. The statement of Theorem 3 is posed as in the source. The printed argument for the second inequality of Lemma 7's (36) does not go through, and a corrected one also uses am−1a_{m-1}am−1​. Lemma 7's constant is therefore quantified after all of aaa.

Contributions of any kind are welcome. Reusable pieces include binomial overshoot bounds, anti-concentration for sums of independent Bernoulli variables (for example via a Wasserstein normal approximation, which Mathlib lacks), and compactness arguments for optimal randomised policies.

Selected references

  • A. Arlotto, I. Gurvich, Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem, arXiv:1710.07719v2, 2018; Stochastic Systems 9(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.07719v2
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • N. Ross, Fundamentals of Stein's method, Probability Surveys 8, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1214/11-PS182
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem 1: The Budget-Ratio Policy Has Regret at Most a₁M(ε), Uniformly in the Number of Candidates n and the Budget kResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-secretary problem is the simplest model of capacity allocation under uncertainty: a decision maker sees nnn candidates one at a time and may hire at most kkk of them, with every decision final. The same structure underlies single-resource revenue management (accepting or rejecting booking requests against a fixed inventory; see Talluri and van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, 2004), online knapsack and packing problems, and dynamic assortment of limited stock.

The performance of an online policy is measured against the offline benchmark, the value of the best kkk candidates chosen with full hindsight. The gap between the two is the regret.

  • In the version where the values arrive as a uniform random permutation, Kleinberg (2005) proved that the minimal regret is of order k\sqrt kk​ and gave an algorithm attaining it (as summarized in Remark 1 of the paper below).
  • Arlotto and Gurvich (arXiv:1710.07719, 2017; Stochastic Systems 2019) showed that when the values have a finite support, the optimal online policy, and an explicit simple policy, have regret bounded by a constant that does not depend on nnn or kkk. The constant depends only on the smallest probability mass.

This mission formalizes that upper bound.

Setting

Abilities take values in a finite set A={am<am−1<⋯<a1}\mathcal A=\{a_m<a_{m-1}<\dots<a_1\}A={am​<am−1​<⋯<a1​} of distinct positive reals, with probabilities fj=P(X=aj)>0f_j=\mathbb P(X=a_j)>0fj​=P(X=aj​)>0, ∑jfj=1\sum_j f_j=1∑j​fj​=1. Write Fˉ(aj)=f1+⋯+fj−1\bar F(a_j)=f_1+\dots+f_{j-1}Fˉ(aj​)=f1​+⋯+fj−1​ for the mass strictly above aja_jaj​, and

ϵ=12min⁡{fm,…,f1}.\epsilon=\tfrac12\min\{f_m,\dots,f_1\}.ϵ=21​min{fm​,…,f1​}.

The abilities X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent with this distribution. Budget pairs range over the triangle T={(n,k):0≤k≤n}\mathcal T=\{(n,k):0\le k\le n\}T={(n,k):0≤k≤n}.

  • Offline value. Voff∗(n,k)=E[max⁡{∑tXtσt:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑tσt≤k}]V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)=\mathbb E\big[\max\{\sum_t X_t\sigma_t:\sigma\in\{0,1\}^n,\ \sum_t\sigma_t\le k\}\big]Voff∗​(n,k)=E[max{∑t​Xt​σt​:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑t​σt​≤k}].
  • Online policies. A policy decides σt∈{0,1}\sigma_t\in\{0,1\}σt​∈{0,1} using only X1,…,XtX_1,\dots,X_tX1​,…,Xt​ and must select at most kkk candidates on every realization. Π(n,k)\Pi(n,k)Π(n,k) is the set of such policies, Vonπ(n,k)=E[∑tXtσtπ]V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=\mathbb E[\sum_t X_t\sigma^\pi_t]Vonπ​(n,k)=E[∑t​Xt​σtπ​], and Von∗(n,k)=max⁡π∈Π(n,k)Vonπ(n,k)V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=\max_{\pi\in\Pi(n,k)}V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)Von∗​(n,k)=maxπ∈Π(n,k)​Vonπ​(n,k).
  • Counts. ZjrZ^r_jZjr​ is the number of aja_jaj​-candidates among the first rrr. The offline sort selects Sjr=min⁡{Zjr,(k−∑i<jZir)+}\mathfrak S^r_j=\min\{Z^r_j,(k-\sum_{i<j}Z^r_i)_+\}Sjr​=min{Zjr​,(k−∑i<j​Zir​)+​} of them. Sjπ,rS^{\pi,r}_jSjπ,r​ counts those selected by π\piπ.
  • Action index. j0(n,k)j_0(n,k)j0​(n,k) is the largest jjj with Fˉ(aj)+12fj≤k/n\bar F(a_j)+\tfrac12f_j\le k/nFˉ(aj​)+21​fj​≤k/n, or 111 if there is none.
  • Thresholds. T1=0T_1=0T1​=0, Tj=Fˉ(aj)+12fjT_j=\bar F(a_j)+\tfrac12 f_jTj​=Fˉ(aj​)+21​fj​ for 2≤j≤m2\le j\le m2≤j≤m, and Tm+1=+∞T_{m+1}=+\inftyTm+1​=+∞.
  • Budget-Ratio (BR) policy. With remaining budget KtK_tKt​ (K0=kK_0=kK0​=k), at time t+1t+1t+1 the policy finds jjj with Tj≤Kt/(n−t)<Tj+1T_j\le K_t/(n-t)<T_{j+1}Tj​≤Kt​/(n−t)<Tj+1​. It selects Xt+1X_{t+1}Xt+1​ if and only if Kt>0K_t>0Kt​>0 and Xt+1≥ajX_{t+1}\ge a_jXt+1​≥aj​.
  • Stopping times. For 0<δ<ϵ0<\delta<\epsilon0<δ<ϵ, τ0\tau_0τ0​ is the first time the budget ratio comes within δ/2\delta/2δ/2 of a threshold, or the cut-off n−2δ−1−1n-2\delta^{-1}-1n−2δ−1−1. The time τ\tauτ of (20) is the first later time the ratio leaves the δ\deltaδ-band around that threshold, or the cut-off.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (first display)

For every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 there is a constant MMM such that for every instance with 12min⁡jfj=ϵ\tfrac12\min_jf_j=\epsilon21​minj​fj​=ϵ and all (n,k)∈T(n,k)\in\mathcal T(n,k)∈T, br∈Π(n,k)\mathrm{br}\in\Pi(n,k)br∈Π(n,k) and

Voff∗(n,k)−Von∗(n,k)≤Voff∗(n,k)−Vonbr(n,k)≤a1M.V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^{\mathrm{br}}_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)\le a_1M.Voff∗​(n,k)−Von∗​(n,k)≤Voff∗​(n,k)−Vonbr​(n,k)≤a1​M.

No constant is fixed. Only the shape is asserted: a bound uniform in nnn, kkk, the support size and the distribution, given ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • The benchmark inequality Vonπ≤Voff∗V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Vonπ​≤Voff∗​ (p. 5).
  • The sort identity Voff∗=∑jajE[Sjn]V^*_{\mathrm{off}}=\sum_ja_j\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]Voff∗​=∑j​aj​E[Sjn​] (4).
  • The binomial overshoot bound E[(B−k)+]≤1/(4ε)\mathbb E[(B-k)_+]\le1/(4\varepsilon)E[(B−k)+​]≤1/(4ε) (Lemma 2).
  • The offline decomposition Voff∗=∑i<jaiE[Zin]+ajE[Sjn]+aj+1E[Sj+1n]±a1/(4ϵ)V^*_{\mathrm{off}}=\sum_{i<j}a_i\mathbb E[Z^n_i]+a_j\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]+a_{j+1}\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_{j+1}]\pm a_1/(4\epsilon)Voff∗​=∑i<j​ai​E[Zin​]+aj​E[Sjn​]+aj+1​E[Sj+1n​]±a1​/(4ϵ) (Proposition 1).
  • The sufficient condition: four properties (i)–(iv) of a policy up to a stopping time imply regret at most 3a1M+a1/(4ϵ)3a_1M+a_1/(4\epsilon)3a1​M+a1​/(4ϵ) (Proposition 2).
  • The identification j0(n,k)=jj_0(n,k)=jj0​(n,k)=j on k/n∈[Tj,Tj+1)k/n\in[T_j,T_{j+1})k/n∈[Tj​,Tj+1​) (p. 17).
  • The BR selection probability and the jump bound ∣Kt/(n−t)−Kt+1/(n−t−1)∣≤δ/2|K_t/(n-t)-K_{t+1}/(n-t-1)|\le\delta/2∣Kt​/(n−t)−Kt+1​/(n−t−1)∣≤δ/2 (p. 13).
  • E[τ]≥n−M\mathbb E[\tau]\ge n-ME[τ]≥n−M (Theorem 2).
  • BR and τ\tauτ satisfy (i)–(iv) (Corollary 1).
  • The state-space reduction vℓ(w,κ)=w+gℓ(κ)v_\ell(w,\kappa)=w+g_\ell(\kappa)vℓ​(w,κ)=w+gℓ​(κ) of the Bellman recursion (Proposition 5).

Significance

The result. Bounded regret means that the loss from not knowing the future is a fixed number of candidates' worth of value, however long the horizon and however large the budget. The bound holds uniformly over all distributions with the same ϵ\epsilonϵ. It is attained by an explicit, adaptive, non-randomized rule that compares one ratio with mmm fixed thresholds. The companion result of the same paper shows that every non-adaptive policy suffers regret of order n\sqrt nn​ in the interior regime. Together they quantify the value of adapting to the remaining budget. Lemma 1 of the paper shows the dependence on ϵ\epsilonϵ cannot be removed.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, but no part of it is machine-checked; there is no multi-secretary or bounded-regret development on the platform. The mission produces several pieces of machinery: a reusable finite model of sequential selection with online policies and the offline benchmark; an explicit online policy with its stopping-time analysis; and a binomial overshoot bound usable elsewhere. The constant MMM is not made explicit in the paper. A formal proof would give one, and sharper constants are welcome.

Difficulty

The offline decomposition and the sufficient condition are bookkeeping with counts and one concentration bound. The hard step is Theorem 2: showing that the budget ratio Kt/(n−t)K_t/(n-t)Kt​/(n−t) stays within δ\deltaδ of its attracting threshold until a bounded expected number of periods before the end. Near the horizon a single selection moves the ratio by about 1/(n−t)1/(n-t)1/(n−t), so the band becomes easy to leave. Equivalently, the target δ(n−τ0−u)\delta(n-\tau_0-u)δ(n−τ0​−u) that the deviation process must exceed shrinks to zero. A standard martingale or drift argument with a fixed band therefore does not give a bound uniform in nnn. The paper combines the mean-reverting drift of the deviation process with an exponential tail bound (its Proposition 4) and a Lyapunov argument. A second subtlety is uniformity: every constant must depend on ϵ\epsilonϵ (and δ\deltaδ) only, never on mmm, the aja_jaj​, nnn or kkk.

Formalization scope

The source is arXiv:1710.07719v2; its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

Representation.

  • Ability levels are Fin m, with index 0 the largest value a1a_1a1​; Lean index iii is the paper's i+1i+1i+1.
  • Each instance carries aaa strictly decreasing and positive, fff positive with ∑f=1\sum f=1∑f=1.
  • Expectations are finite sums over sequences x:Fin n→Fin mx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathrm{Fin}\,mx:Finn→Finm weighted by ∏tf(xt)\prod_tf(x_t)∏t​f(xt​), so no measure theory is needed.
  • Policies are deterministic selection rules σ(x,t)\sigma(x,t)σ(x,t) that are non-anticipating and feasible. Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​ is a maximum over this finite set. The paper allows randomized policies; for this finite problem the optimal values coincide (p. 39). In any case, restricting to deterministic policies can only lower Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​ and so does not weaken the goal.
  • Voff∗V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Voff∗​ is defined as an expected maximum over selection vectors, not by the sort formula. The sort formula is a milestone.

Quantifiers. The constant MMM in the goal is chosen after ϵ\epsilonϵ and before mmm, the instance, nnn and kkk. A statement with MMM chosen after the instance, or after nnn, is trivial (regret ≤a1n\le a_1n≤a1​n) and is excluded.

Corrections to the printed text, disclosed in the items.

  1. In Theorem 2 and Corollary 1, MMM depends on the auxiliary δ∈(0,ϵ)\delta\in(0,\epsilon)δ∈(0,ϵ) as well, because τ\tauτ does. δ\deltaδ is quantified before MMM. The goal itself is δ\deltaδ-free.
  2. Lemma 2's conditions p+ε≤k/np+\varepsilon\le k/np+ε≤k/n, k/n≤p−εk/n\le p-\varepsilonk/n≤p−ε are stated as (p+ε)n≤k(p+\varepsilon)n\le k(p+ε)n≤k, k≤(p−ε)nk\le(p-\varepsilon)nk≤(p−ε)n, the form used in its proof. This avoids a false case at n=0n=0n=0.
  3. The BR rule is applied at every time t+1∈{1,…,n}t+1\in\{1,\dots,n\}t+1∈{1,…,n}; p. 11 writes {1,…,n−1}\{1,\dots,n-1\}{1,…,n−1}.
  4. τ\tauτ is capped at nnn, which matters only when n=0n=0n=0.
  5. In Proposition 5 the recursions are imposed for κ≥1\kappa\ge1κ≥1 (boundary conditions at κ=0\kappa=0κ=0), and only identity (49) is stated.

Infrastructure. The model definitions (instance, offline value, online policies, counts, thresholds, action index) and the binomial overshoot lemma are reusable for other finite-support online selection and revenue-management results. All of the following are welcome:

  • proofs of individual milestones;
  • an explicit constant;
  • a formal derivation of Von∗(n,k)=vn(0,k)V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=v_n(0,k)Von∗​(n,k)=vn​(0,k) connecting Proposition 5 to Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​.

Selected references

  • A. Arlotto, I. Gurvich, Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem, arXiv:1710.07719v2, 2018; Stochastic Systems 9(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.07719
  • R. Kleinberg, A multiple-choice secretary algorithm with applications to online auctions, SODA 2005. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1070432.1070519
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • D. P. Bertsekas, S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 4: With Dissimilarity Parameters at Most One, the Knapsack-Relaxation and Singleton LP Optimum Scaled by 2 Is Feasible for the Full LPResearch Paper

Motivation

Assortment optimization asks which set of products a firm should offer when customers choose among the offered products according to a discrete choice model; it underlies shelf-space planning in retail and fare-class control in airline revenue management (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004). Under the nested logit model products are grouped into nests, and a customer first picks a nest and then a product inside it. Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Operations Research, 2014; DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256) map out how hard this problem is across variants of the model.

When every nest dissimilarity parameter is at most one and a customer who chose a nest always buys there, offering the top-revenue products of each nest is optimal (Theorem 4 of the paper, the subject of an earlier mission of this series). Once a customer may leave a nest without buying — a partially-captured nest — that structure breaks and the problem becomes NP-hard (Theorem 8). This mission targets the paper's response: a small, explicitly constructed family of candidate assortments per nest from which a linear program recovers a solution within a factor of two of optimal.

Setting

There are mmm nests MMM and, in each nest, nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and a preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, with ri1≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii has a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and a within-nest no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0; v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0 is the weight of choosing no nest. For an assortment Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N,

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0,V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j \in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)},\quad R_i(\emptyset)=0,Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0,

and the expected revenue of (S1,…,Sm)(S_1, \dots, S_m)(S1​,…,Sm​) is Π=∑iVi(Si)γiRi(Si)/(v0+∑iVi(Si)γi)\Pi = \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} R_i(S_i) / (v_0 + \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i})Π=∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​Ri​(Si​)/(v0​+∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​). The optimal expected revenue Z∗Z^*Z∗ is the optimal value of the linear program

(3)min⁡ xs.t.v0x≥∑i∈Myi,yi≥Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)  ∀Si⊆N, i∈M,\text{(3)}\quad \min\ x \quad\text{s.t.}\quad v_0 x \ge \sum_{i \in M} y_i,\qquad y_i \ge V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}\big(R_i(S_i) - x\big)\ \ \forall S_i \subseteq N,\ i \in M,(3)min xs.t.v0​x≥i∈M∑​yi​,yi​≥Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)  ∀Si​⊆N, i∈M,

and problem (4) is the same program with the second family of constraints imposed only for a chosen collection of candidate assortments in each nest.

Throughout, γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 for every nest and the vi0v_{i0}vi0​ are arbitrary. For a capacity ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0, the knapsack value Ki(ϵi)K_i(\epsilon_i)Ki​(ϵi​) is the largest ∑j∈Srijvij\sum_{j \in S} r_{ij} v_{ij}∑j∈S​rij​vij​ over assortments SSS with ∑j∈Svij≤ϵi\sum_{j \in S} v_{ij} \le \epsilon_i∑j∈S​vij​≤ϵi​ (display (9)). Its continuous relaxation (11) allows fractional zij∈[0,1(vij≤ϵi)]z_{ij} \in [0, \mathbf 1(v_{ij} \le \epsilon_i)]zij​∈[0,1(vij​≤ϵi​)] under the same capacity. The greedy solution z^i(ϵi)\hat z_i(\epsilon_i)z^i​(ϵi​) of (11) fills the capacity with the products of weight at most ϵi\epsilon_iϵi​ in revenue order, each fully while it fits and the next one fractionally, and

S^i(ϵi)={j∈N:z^ij(ϵi)=1}.\hat S_i(\epsilon_i) = \{ j \in N : \hat z_{ij}(\epsilon_i) = 1 \}.S^i​(ϵi​)={j∈N:z^ij​(ϵi​)=1}.

Problem (10) replaces the per-assortment constraints of (3) by yi≥max⁡ϵi≥0(vi0+ϵi)γi[Ki(ϵi)/(vi0+ϵi)−x]y_i \ge \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0} (v_{i0}+\epsilon_i)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon_i)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i) - x]yi​≥maxϵi​≥0​(vi0​+ϵi​)γi​[Ki​(ϵi​)/(vi0​+ϵi​)−x].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 24)

Let (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) be an optimal solution of (4) with candidate collections {S^i(ϵi):ϵi∈[0,∞]}∪{{j}:j∈N}\{\hat S_i(\epsilon_i) : \epsilon_i \in [0,\infty]\} \cup \{\{j\} : j \in N\}{S^i​(ϵi​):ϵi​∈[0,∞]}∪{{j}:j∈N}. Then

(2x^, 2y^)  is feasible for (3).(2\hat x,\ 2\hat y) \ \text{ is feasible for (3).}(2x^, 2y^​)  is feasible for (3).

Milestones

  1. Per-nest identity (proof of Lemma 9, p. 23). For x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, max⁡SiVi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)=max⁡ϵi≥0(vi0+ϵi)γi[Ki(ϵi)/(vi0+ϵi)−x]\max_{S_i} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}(R_i(S_i) - x) = \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0}(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon_i)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i) - x]maxSi​​Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)=maxϵi​≥0​(vi0​+ϵi​)γi​[Ki​(ϵi​)/(vi0​+ϵi​)−x].
  2. Lemma 9 (p. 23). Problems (3) and (10) have the same optimal solutions.
  3. Relaxation (p. 23). Every feasible point of (9) is feasible for (11), so K^i(ϵi)≥Ki(ϵi)\hat K_i(\epsilon_i) \ge K_i(\epsilon_i)K^i​(ϵi​)≥Ki​(ϵi​).
  4. Greedy solution (pp. 23–24). z^i(ϵi)\hat z_i(\epsilon_i)z^i​(ϵi​) is optimal for (11) and has at most one fractional component.
  5. Sign (A.3, p. 45). x^≥0\hat x \ge 0x^≥0.
  6. Inequalities (28) and (29) (A.3, pp. 45–46). In both cases — z^i(ϵ)\hat z_i(\epsilon)z^i​(ϵ) with and without a fractional component — 2y^i≥(vi0+ϵ)γi[Ki(ϵ)/(vi0+ϵ)−2x^]2\hat y_i \ge (v_{i0}+\epsilon)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon) - 2\hat x]2y^​i​≥(vi0​+ϵ)γi​[Ki​(ϵ)/(vi0​+ϵ)−2x^].

Two further statements accompany the goal: the factor-two revenue guarantee obtained from Theorem 10 and Theorem 1 of the paper, and the fact that every S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) is one of the at most 1+n21 + n^21+n2 assortments NijkN^k_{ij}Nijk​, the first jjj products by revenue among the kkk lightest.

Significance

Theorem 10 turns an NP-hard assortment problem into a linear program with 1+m1 + m1+m variables and 1+m(1+n+n2)1 + m(1 + n + n^2)1+m(1+n+n2) constraints whose solution is within a factor of two of optimal. The construction is explicit: the candidates are defined by a greedy rule, not by an optimization oracle. The same template, a restricted linear program whose doubled optimum is feasible for the full one, is reused in §6 of the paper for the most general instances, and Lemma 9's knapsack reformulation is the link to the classical approximation theory of knapsack problems (Williamson and Shmoys, 2011).

The theorem is proved in the paper. No machine-checked proof of it, of Lemma 9, or of greedy optimality for the continuous knapsack with an eligibility bound exists on the platform. Formalizing it yields a checked factor-two guarantee and a reusable fractional-knapsack development.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would compare the restricted program (4) with (3) constraint by constraint. That fails: (3) has one constraint per subset of products, and most subsets are not candidates. The comparison has to pass through the knapsack reformulation (10), which requires showing that a maximum over all subsets equals a maximum over a one-dimensional capacity parameter, using γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 in an essential way. The second obstacle is that the greedy assortment S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) keeps only the fully taken products, so its value can fall short of the continuous knapsack value, and no single candidate assortment need attain the knapsack bound. With dissimilarity parameters above one the monotonicity behind the reformulation is lost, and §6 of the paper needs a different factor.

Formalization scope

Products are Fin n (indices 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1), nests a finite type, and every quantity is real. Powers are Real.rpow; x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0, which gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. An optimal solution of a linear program is a feasible pair whose xxx is minimal among feasible pairs. The constraint "yi≥max⁡ϵi≥0(… )y_i \ge \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0}(\dots)yi​≥maxϵi​≥0​(…)" of (10) is stated in constraint form, for every ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0, so no real supremum is taken. Ki(ϵ)K_i(\epsilon)Ki​(ϵ) is defined for ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0 only; its placeholder value for ϵ<0\epsilon < 0ϵ<0 is never used. Ties in revenue (and, for NijkN^k_{ij}Nijk​, in weight) are broken by index. The candidate collection is taken over real ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0; ϵi=∞\epsilon_i = \inftyϵi​=∞ adds nothing, since every capacity of at least ∑jvij\sum_j v_{ij}∑j​vij​ already gives S^i=N\hat S_i = NS^i​=N.

Standing assumptions and added hypotheses: γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 for every nest (the section's assumption) on the goal and on every model milestone; the pins vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0, γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and the revenue ordering, shared by the series; n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 on Lemma 9, on x^≥0\hat x \ge 0x^≥0 and on (28)/(29), the paper's nonempty NNN; and v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0 on the factor-two revenue guarantee, where Theorem 1 of the paper fails without it.

The greedy assortments S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) are defined explicitly. Quantifying over arbitrary optimal solutions of (11) instead would change the candidate collection and is not the paper's theorem. The goal states feasibility for the full program (3) and does not mention knapsack values, the greedy solution or the case split. A formalization that weakens the conclusion to feasibility for (10), or that drops the singletons from the candidate collection, is not a solution.

Needed infrastructure: fractional knapsack optimality of the greedy rule with an eligibility bound, monotonicity of t↦tγt \mapsto t^{\gamma}t↦tγ and t↦tγ−1t \mapsto t^{\gamma - 1}t↦tγ−1 for γ≤1\gamma \le 1γ≤1, and finite maximization over subsets. The fractional-knapsack lemmas are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative decompositions of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014 (revised manuscript of June 18, 2013, cited here). DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior, Management Science 50(1), 15–33, 2004. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • D. P. Williamson, D. B. Shmoys, The Design of Approximation Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2011. DOI 10.1017/CBO9780511921735
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 2: With Dissimilarity Parameters at Most One and Fully-Captured Nests, a Nested-by-Revenue Assortment in Every Nest Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer choosing which products to display, or an airline choosing which fare classes to open, solves an assortment optimization problem: pick the set of offered products that maximizes expected revenue when customers choose among what is offered according to a discrete choice model. Under the multinomial logit model the answer has a simple form: an optimal assortment consists of the few highest-revenue products (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004). The multinomial logit model, however, forces every pair of products to compete in the same way. The nested logit model relaxes this by grouping products into nests (brands, store sections, departure times) and letting a customer first choose a nest and then a product inside it.

Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Operations Research, 2014; DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256) study how much of the multinomial logit structure survives under the nested logit model. Their first answer is the theorem this mission targets: when the nest dissimilarity parameters are at most one and no customer who chose a nest leaves it without buying, offering the top products of each nest is still optimal. The other missions of this series treat the cases where this fails: dissimilarity parameters above one (the problem becomes NP-hard) and nests with their own no-purchase option.

Setting

There are mmm nests M={1,…,m}M = \{1, \dots, m\}M={1,…,m} and, in each nest, nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and a preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0; products are ordered so that ri1≥ri2≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge r_{i2} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥ri2​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii carries a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and a within-nest no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0, and v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0 is the weight of choosing no nest at all.

An assortment is a tuple (S1,…,Sm)(S_1, \dots, S_m)(S1​,…,Sm​) of subsets Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N. Write

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0.V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j \in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)}, \quad R_i(\emptyset) = 0.Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0.

A customer picks nest iii with probability Qi=Vi(Si)γi/(v0+∑l∈MVl(Sl)γl)Q_i = V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} / (v_0 + \sum_{l \in M} V_l(S_l)^{\gamma_l})Qi​=Vi​(Si​)γi​/(v0​+∑l∈M​Vl​(Sl​)γl​) and then, inside the nest, product jjj with probability vij/Vi(Si)v_{ij}/V_i(S_i)vij​/Vi​(Si​). The expected revenue is

Π(S1,…,Sm)=∑i∈MQi Ri(Si)=∑i∈MVi(Si)γiRi(Si)v0+∑i∈MVi(Si)γi,\Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m) = \sum_{i \in M} Q_i\, R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} R_i(S_i)}{v_0 + \sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}},Π(S1​,…,Sm​)=i∈M∑​Qi​Ri​(Si​)=v0​+∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​Ri​(Si​)​,

and problem (2) asks for Z∗=max⁡Π(S1,…,Sm)Z^* = \max \Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m)Z∗=maxΠ(S1​,…,Sm​) over all assortments. The nested-by-revenue assortment Nij={1,…,j}N_{ij} = \{1, \dots, j\}Nij​={1,…,j} collects the jjj highest-revenue products of nest iii, with Ni0=∅N_{i0} = \emptysetNi0​=∅ and N+={0,1,…,n}N_+ = \{0, 1, \dots, n\}N+​={0,1,…,n}.

This mission works under the standing assumptions of §3 of the paper: competitive products, γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1, and fully-captured nests, vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0, for every nest iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 15)

If γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0 for all i∈Mi \in Mi∈M, there exists an optimal solution (S1∗,…,Sm∗)(S^*_1, \dots, S^*_m)(S1∗​,…,Sm∗​) of problem (2) such that

Si∗=Nij  for some j∈N+,for all i∈M.S^*_i = N_{ij} \ \text{ for some } j \in N_+, \qquad \text{for all } i \in M.Si∗​=Nij​  for some j∈N+​,for all i∈M.

Milestones

  1. The case v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 (p. 14). Offering only the single product with the largest revenue max⁡iri1\max_{i} r_{i1}maxi​ri1​ is optimal.
  2. Proposition 2 (p. 14). If S∗S^*S∗ is optimal and Si∗≠∅S^*_i \ne \emptysetSi∗​=∅, then Ri(Si∗)≥Z∗R_i(S^*_i) \ge Z^*Ri​(Si∗​)≥Z∗.
  3. Lemma 3 (p. 14). If Z=Π(S)Z = \Pi(S)Z=Π(S), Ri(Si)≥ZR_i(S_i) \ge ZRi​(Si​)≥Z and some j∈Sij \in S_ij∈Si​ has rij<γiZ+(1−γi)Ri(Si)r_{ij} < \gamma_i Z + (1-\gamma_i) R_i(S_i)rij​<γi​Z+(1−γi​)Ri​(Si​), removing jjj strictly increases the expected revenue.
  4. g(α)≤γg(\alpha) \le \gammag(α)≤γ (p. 15). For 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1 and 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1: (1−αγ)/(αγ−1−αγ)≤γ(1 - \alpha^{\gamma})/(\alpha^{\gamma-1} - \alpha^{\gamma}) \le \gamma(1−αγ)/(αγ−1−αγ)≤γ.
  5. Revenue threshold (p. 15). Every j∈Si∗j \in S^*_ij∈Si∗​ of an optimal S∗S^*S∗ has rij≥γiZ∗+(1−γi)Ri(Si∗)r_{ij} \ge \gamma_i Z^* + (1-\gamma_i) R_i(S^*_i)rij​≥γi​Z∗+(1−γi​)Ri​(Si∗​).
  6. h(α)≥γh(\alpha) \ge \gammah(α)≥γ (p. 16). For 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1 and 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1: (1−αγ)/(1−α)≥γ(1 - \alpha^{\gamma})/(1 - \alpha) \ge \gamma(1−αγ)/(1−α)≥γ.
  7. Exchange step (p. 15). If S∗S^*S∗ is optimal, j∈Si∗j \in S^*_ij∈Si∗​, k∉Si∗k \notin S^*_ik∈/Si∗​ and k<jk < jk<j, then adding kkk to Si∗S^*_iSi∗​ keeps the assortment optimal.

A companion item (not a milestone) states the algorithmic consequence at the end of §3: solving the linear program (4) over the candidates {Nij:j∈N+}\{N_{ij} : j \in N_+\}{Nij​:j∈N+​} and choosing in each nest a maximizer of problem (5) gives an optimal solution of (2).

Significance

Theorem 4 reduces problem (2), a search over 2mn2^{mn}2mn assortments, to (n+1)m(n+1)^m(n+1)m nested-by-revenue combinations, and the paper then finds the best one with a linear program with 1+m1 + m1+m variables and 1+m(1+n)1 + m(1+n)1+m(1+n) constraints. It marks the exact boundary of the classical multinomial logit structure inside the nested logit model: the paper's §4 shows that a single nest with γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 already breaks it, and that the general problem is NP-hard. The structural statement is also the base case for the approximation guarantees of §§5–6, which compare against nested-by-revenue assortments.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formal proof would supply a verified reduction from a combinatorial revenue maximization over the nested logit model to a polynomial-size search, with every boundary case (empty nests, v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, ties in revenues) handled explicitly.

Difficulty

The obvious argument copies the multinomial logit proof: take an optimal assortment and swap a low-revenue product for a missing higher-revenue one. Under the nested logit model this exchange changes the nest's attraction Vi(Si)γiV_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}Vi​(Si​)γi​ non-linearly, so the revenue of the modified assortment is not an affine function of the change, and a simple swap can lower the expected revenue. The argument must instead control how adding or removing one product moves the nest weight relative to the nest revenue, and this is exactly where γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 enters, through two scalar inequalities in the ratio α\alphaα of nest weights. With γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 these inequalities fail and so does the theorem.

A second subtlety is ties: several optimal assortments may exist, and only some of them are nested by revenue. The statement asserts existence, not that every optimum has this form.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace NestedLogitVariants.Competitive and share one definition file. Nests form a finite type ι with decidable equality; products are Fin n, indexed 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1, so NijN_{ij}Nij​ is nbr n j ={k:k<j}= \{k : k < j\}={k:k<j} with j≤nj \le nj≤n, and j=0j = 0j=0 gives ∅\emptyset∅. Powers are Real.rpow, and x/0=0x / 0 = 0x/0=0, which gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. Optimality of an assortment means its revenue is at least that of every assortment.

Standing assumptions carried as hypotheses: v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0, revenues ordered within each nest, and §3's γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0. Three pins are disclosed: vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0 (the paper allows zero-weight padding products, under which Proposition 2 fails), rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0, and γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 (the paper's γi≥0\gamma_i \ge 0γi​≥0; its convention Vi(∅)γi=0V_i(\emptyset)^{\gamma_i} = 0Vi​(∅)γi​=0 fails at γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0). The section's "without loss of generality v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0" is a hypothesis of Proposition 2, Lemma 3, the threshold, the exchange step and the LP item; the goal itself only assumes v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, and the case v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 is milestone 1. The two scalar inequalities are stated as inequalities, not as monotonicity claims.

The goal is not trivialized by any hypothesis: it assumes none of the milestones, and stating "some nested-by-revenue assortment exists" (always true) or "every optimal assortment is nested by revenue" (false under ties) would be a different theorem.

Needed infrastructure is light: finite sums, real powers, and concavity of x↦xγx \mapsto x^{\gamma}x↦xγ for γ≤1\gamma \le 1γ≤1. The scalar lemmas are reusable for other nested logit results. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model, Operations Research 62(2), 250–273, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256 (cited from the authors' revised manuscript of June 18, 2013)
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, Revenue management under a general discrete choice model of consumer behavior, Management Science 50(1), 15–33, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • D. McFadden, Modelling the choice of residential location, in A. Karlqvist et al. (eds.), Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North-Holland, 75–96, 1978.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Katyusha: The First Direct Acceleration of Stochastic Gradient Methods 2: Without Strong Convexity, Katyusha^ns Reaches Error O((F(x₀)−F(x*))/S² + L‖x₀−x*‖²/(mS²))Research Paper

Motivation

Many problems in machine learning and statistics are regularized empirical risk minimization: minimize an average f(x)=1n∑i=1nfi(x)f(x)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f_i(x)f(x)=n1​∑i=1n​fi​(x) of nnn loss terms, one per data point, plus a regularizer ψ(x)\psi(x)ψ(x) such as λ∥x∥1\lambda\|x\|_1λ∥x∥1​. When nnn is large, a full gradient ∇f\nabla f∇f costs nnn component gradients, so stochastic gradient methods that touch one fif_ifi​ per step are preferred. Variance-reduced methods (SVRG, SAGA) correct the stochastic gradient with a periodically recomputed full gradient and reach the rates of full-gradient descent at the cost of stochastic steps; accelerated full-gradient methods (Nesterov) improve the rate from O(1/T)O(1/T)O(1/T) to O(1/T2)O(1/T^2)O(1/T2) on convex problems.

Combining the two directly was open until Allen-Zhu's Katyusha (arXiv:1603.05953, STOC 2017, JMLR 2018). Before it, accelerated stochastic rates were obtained either for special structure (accelerated coordinate and dual methods, which need strong convexity or dual access) or through reductions such as Catalyst and APPA, which wrap a non-accelerated method in an outer proximal-point loop and lose logarithmic factors. Katyusha adds a third momentum term, the Katyusha momentum, that pulls each iterate back to the snapshot point, and obtains the accelerated rate directly. This mission concerns the paper's second main result: the variant Katyushans^{\mathrm{ns}}ns (Algorithm 2) for objectives that are convex but not strongly convex.

Setting

Problem (1.1) of the paper is

min⁡x∈RdF(x)=f(x)+ψ(x)=1n∑i=1nfi(x)+ψ(x),\min_{x\in\mathbb R^d} F(x)=f(x)+\psi(x)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f_i(x)+\psi(x),x∈Rdmin​F(x)=f(x)+ψ(x)=n1​i=1∑n​fi​(x)+ψ(x),

where n≥1n\ge1n≥1, each component fi:Rd→Rf_i:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rfi​:Rd→R is convex and LLL-smooth, ∥∇fi(x)−∇fi(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥\|\nabla f_i(x)-\nabla f_i(y)\|\le L\|x-y\|∥∇fi​(x)−∇fi​(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥, and the regularizer ψ\psiψ is convex. A point x∗x^*x∗ minimizes FFF.

Katyushans(x0,S,L)^{\mathrm{ns}}(x_0,S,L)ns(x0​,S,L) runs SSS epochs of mmm iterations each (the paper takes m=2nm=2nm=2n). It keeps three sequences yky_kyk​, zkz_kzk​ and a snapshot x~s\widetilde x^sxs, all starting at x0x_0x0​, and fixes τ2=12\tau_2=\frac12τ2​=21​. Epoch sss uses the weight τ1,s=2s+4\tau_{1,s}=\frac{2}{s+4}τ1,s​=s+42​ and the step αs=13τ1,sL\alpha_s=\frac{1}{3\tau_{1,s}L}αs​=3τ1,s​L1​, computes ∇f(x~s)\nabla f(\widetilde x^s)∇f(xs) once, and performs, for k=sm,…,sm+m−1k=sm,\dots,sm+m-1k=sm,…,sm+m−1:

  1. the coupling xk+1=τ1,szk+τ2x~s+(1−τ1,s−τ2)ykx_{k+1}=\tau_{1,s}z_k+\tau_2\widetilde x^s+(1-\tau_{1,s}-\tau_2)y_kxk+1​=τ1,s​zk​+τ2​xs+(1−τ1,s​−τ2​)yk​;
  2. the SVRG estimator ∇~k+1=∇f(x~s)+∇fi(xk+1)−∇fi(x~s)\widetilde\nabla_{k+1}=\nabla f(\widetilde x^s)+\nabla f_i(x_{k+1})-\nabla f_i(\widetilde x^s)∇k+1​=∇f(xs)+∇fi​(xk+1​)−∇fi​(xs), with iii uniform in {1,…,n}\{1,\dots,n\}{1,…,n}, independent across iterations;
  3. the mirror step zk+1=arg⁡min⁡z{12αs∥z−zk∥2+⟨∇~k+1,z⟩+ψ(z)}z_{k+1}=\arg\min_z\{\frac1{2\alpha_s}\|z-z_k\|^2+\langle\widetilde\nabla_{k+1},z\rangle+\psi(z)\}zk+1​=argminz​{2αs​1​∥z−zk​∥2+⟨∇k+1​,z⟩+ψ(z)};
  4. the gradient step (Option I) yk+1=arg⁡min⁡y{3L2∥y−xk+1∥2+⟨∇~k+1,y⟩+ψ(y)}y_{k+1}=\arg\min_y\{\frac{3L}2\|y-x_{k+1}\|^2+\langle\widetilde\nabla_{k+1},y\rangle+\psi(y)\}yk+1​=argminy​{23L​∥y−xk+1​∥2+⟨∇k+1​,y⟩+ψ(y)}.

At the end of the epoch the new snapshot is the average x~s+1=1m∑j=1mysm+j\widetilde x^{s+1}=\frac1m\sum_{j=1}^m y_{sm+j}xs+1=m1​∑j=1m​ysm+j​. The output is x~S\widetilde x^SxS. Throughout, Dk=F(yk)−F(x∗)D_k=F(y_k)-F(x^*)Dk​=F(yk​)−F(x∗) and D~s=F(x~s)−F(x∗)\widetilde D^s=F(\widetilde x^s)-F(x^*)Ds=F(xs)−F(x∗).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 with the constants of its proof

E[F(x~S)]−F(x∗)≤16 (F(x0)−F(x∗))(S+3)2+12 L ∥x0−x∗∥2m (S+3)2(S≥0, m≥1).\mathbb E\big[F(\widetilde x^S)\big]-F(x^*)\le\frac{16\,\big(F(x_0)-F(x^*)\big)}{(S+3)^2}+\frac{12\,L\,\|x_0-x^*\|^2}{m\,(S+3)^2}\qquad(S\ge0,\ m\ge1).E[F(xS)]−F(x∗)≤(S+3)216(F(x0​)−F(x∗))​+m(S+3)212L∥x0​−x∗∥2​(S≥0, m≥1).

The paper states O(F(x0)−F(x∗)S2+L∥x0−x∗∥2mS2)O\big(\frac{F(x_0)-F(x^*)}{S^2}+\frac{L\|x_0-x^*\|^2}{mS^2}\big)O(S2F(x0​)−F(x∗)​+mS2L∥x0​−x∗∥2​); the explicit form above is what its proof in Appendix C.1 establishes.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Lemma 2.7 for σ=0\sigma=0σ=0: the one-iteration inequality coupling DkD_kDk​, E[Dk+1]\mathbb E[D_{k+1}]E[Dk+1​], D~\widetilde DD and the distances ∥zk−x∗∥2\|z_k-x^*\|^2∥zk​−x∗∥2, E∥zk+1−x∗∥2\mathbb E\|z_{k+1}-x^*\|^2E∥zk+1​−x∗∥2.
  2. (C.1): Lemma 2.7 summed over one epoch.
  3. (C.2): the epoch inequality for s≥1s\ge1s≥1, after inserting the average snapshot and αs=1/(3τ1,sL)\alpha_s=1/(3\tau_{1,s}L)αs​=1/(3τ1,s​L).
  4. (C.3): the same for the base epoch s=0s=0s=0.
  5. The parameter inequalities 1τ1,s2≥1−τ1,s+1τ1,s+12\frac1{\tau_{1,s}^2}\ge\frac{1-\tau_{1,s+1}}{\tau_{1,s+1}^2}τ1,s2​1​≥τ1,s+12​1−τ1,s+1​​ and τ1,s+τ2τ1,s2≥τ2τ1,s+12\frac{\tau_{1,s}+\tau_2}{\tau_{1,s}^2}\ge\frac{\tau_2}{\tau_{1,s+1}^2}τ1,s2​τ1,s​+τ2​​≥τ1,s+12​τ2​​.
  6. (C.4): the bound telescoped over SSS epochs.

Significance

Theorem 4.1 gives the accelerated O(1/S2)O(1/S^2)O(1/S2) rate for non-strongly convex composite finite sums with a direct method: ε\varepsilonε error after O(nF(x0)−F(x∗)ε+nL ∥x0−x∗∥ε)O\big(\frac{n\sqrt{F(x_0)-F(x^*)}}{\sqrt\varepsilon}+\frac{\sqrt{nL}\,\|x_0-x^*\|}{\sqrt\varepsilon}\big)O(ε​nF(x0​)−F(x∗)​​+ε​nL​∥x0​−x∗∥​) stochastic gradient evaluations, a factor SSS better than the O(1/S)O(1/S)O(1/S) of non-accelerated variance-reduced methods such as SAGA (Remark 4.2). The non-strongly convex case covers ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-regularized and unregularized convex losses, where no strong-convexity parameter is available to tune a linear-rate method.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of Katyusha or Katyushans^{\mathrm{ns}}ns is known to exist. The mission produces a formal statement of the algorithm and its rate with explicit constants, and a formal chain of the paper's intermediate inequalities. A SAGA mission on this platform states SAGA's non-accelerated O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) rate for the same problem class, so the two results become directly comparable in Lean.

Difficulty

Each step uses only convexity, smoothness and the optimality of proximal points, but the steps interlock. The variance of ∇~k+1\widetilde\nabla_{k+1}∇k+1​ cannot be bounded by F(x~)−F(x∗)F(\widetilde x)-F(x^*)F(x)−F(x∗) as in SVRG's analysis without losing acceleration; the paper's bound (Lemma 2.4) leaves a linear term ⟨∇f(xk+1),x~−xk+1⟩\langle\nabla f(x_{k+1}),\widetilde x-x_{k+1}\rangle⟨∇f(xk+1​),x−xk+1​⟩ that is cancelled only by the specific weight τ2=12\tau_2=\frac12τ2​=21​ of the Katyusha momentum (Lemmas 2.6–2.7). Without strong convexity the per-epoch inequalities do not contract, so the proof must telescope across epochs with epoch-dependent weights τ1,s\tau_{1,s}τ1,s​: the coefficients of Dsm+jD_{sm+j}Dsm+j​ produced by epoch sss must dominate those consumed by epoch s+1s+1s+1, and the snapshot term mD~sm\widetilde D^smDs must be charged to the previous epoch's iterates. Getting the boundary epoch s=0s=0s=0 (whose snapshot is x0x_0x0​) and the last epoch right is where the constants come from.

Formalization scope

The Lean development works on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with components indexed by Fin n (n≥1n\ge1n≥1). Gradients are given functions ∇fi\nabla f_i∇fi​ tied to fif_ifi​ by HasGradientAt; LLL-smoothness is the Lipschitz bound on them with L>0L>0L>0; convexity is ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ. fff and ∇f\nabla f∇f are the published SAGA.Convex.fAvg and SAGA.Convex.gradAvg. The regularizer ψ\psiψ is real-valued and convex, so extended-valued regularizers such as indicator functions of constraint sets are not covered. The two arg-min steps are evaluated through a map PPP assumed to return a proximal point of ψ\psiψ (the published SAGA.Convex.IsProxPoint) for every positive step; for real-valued convex ψ\psiψ such points exist and are unique, so the hypothesis is satisfiable. x∗x^*x∗ is assumed to minimize FFF (without strong convexity a minimizer need not exist). Randomness is modelled by finite sequences of indices: the expectation is the uniform average over all index sequences (SAGA.Convex.expectIdx), with the SmSmSm indices split into epochs by Mathlib's finProdFinEquiv.

Conventions committed to:

  • Explicit constants for O(·). The goal's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is instantiated as 16 (F(x0)−F(x∗))/(S+3)2+12L∥x0−x∗∥2/(m(S+3)2)16\,(F(x_0)-F(x^*))/(S+3)^2+12L\|x_0-x^*\|^2/(m(S+3)^2)16(F(x0​)−F(x∗))/(S+3)2+12L∥x0​−x∗∥2/(m(S+3)2): the proof bounds D~S\widetilde D^SDS by 2τ1,S−12m\frac{2\tau_{1,S-1}^2}{m}m2τ1,S−12​​ times the right-hand side of (C.4), which equals 2m (F(x0)−F(x∗))+3L2∥x0−x∗∥22m\,(F(x_0)-F(x^*))+\frac{3L}2\|x_0-x^*\|^22m(F(x0​)−F(x∗))+23L​∥x0​−x∗∥2, with τ1,S−1=2S+3\tau_{1,S-1}=\frac2{S+3}τ1,S−1​=S+32​. The bound holds trivially at S=0S=0S=0, so the goal is stated for all SSS.
  • Epoch length. m≥1m\ge1m≥1 is a parameter (the algorithm sets m=2nm=2nm=2n); every statement holds for every m≥1m\ge1m≥1.
  • Option I only; the unused input σ\sigmaσ and Option II are not modelled.
  • Lemma 2.7 is stated for σ=0\sigma=0σ=0 with the paper's implicit side conditions α>0\alpha>0α>0, 0<τ1≤120<\tau_1\le\frac120<τ1​≤21​.
  • (C.2) is stated for an epoch s≥1s\ge1s≥1 whose snapshot is the average of given previous iterates; (C.1) and (C.3) are stated from an arbitrary epoch start state, which is the paper's "the randomness in the first s−1s-1s−1 epochs is fixed".
  • The typo ∥zSm−z∗∥2\|z_{Sm}-z^*\|^2∥zSm​−z∗∥2 in (C.4) is read as ∥zSm−x∗∥2\|z_{Sm}-x^*\|^2∥zSm​−x∗∥2.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the prox map, the gradients and x∗x^*x∗ are all tied to ψ\psiψ, fif_ifi​ and FFF by hypotheses that a quadratic instance satisfies, and the expectation averages over every index sequence rather than a chosen one. The iteration count stated "in other words" after Theorem 4.1 is not a target.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order; general lemmas about proximal points of convex functions (the three-point inequality behind Lemma 2.5) and the co-coercivity of convex LLL-smooth functions (behind Lemma 2.4) are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • Z. Allen-Zhu, Katyusha: The First Direct Acceleration of Stochastic Gradient Methods, STOC 2017; JMLR 18(221), 2018. arXiv:1603.05953v6. https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.05953
  • A. Defazio, F. Bach, S. Lacoste-Julien, SAGA: A Fast Incremental Gradient Method With Support for Non-Strongly Convex Composite Objectives, NeurIPS 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.0202
  • R. Johnson, T. Zhang, Accelerating Stochastic Gradient Descent using Predictive Variance Reduction, NeurIPS 2013. https://papers.nips.cc/paper/4937
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Programming, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization IV: When A ≥ 0 the Best Affine Policy Costs at Most 3√m Times the Fully Adaptable OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two steps: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain right-hand side bbb is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen after it, as a function of bbb. The objective protects against the worst bbb in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. Computing an optimal fully adaptable solution is intractable in general (Feige, Jain, Mahdian and Mirrokni, IPCO 2007), so practitioners restrict the second stage to affine policies y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q, introduced in robust optimization by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (Math. Program. 2004). An optimal affine policy is computed by a single convex program, but its cost may exceed the adaptive optimum.

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012) quantify this loss. Earlier, Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) proved affine policies optimal for a class of one-dimensional multistage problems. The present paper shows that affine policies are optimal when U\mathcal UU is a simplex (Theorem 1), that they can lose a factor Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ) in general (Theorem 3), and — the subject of this mission — that when the first-stage constraint matrix is nonnegative they never lose more than 3m3\sqrt m3m​ (Theorem 4). Nonnegative first-stage matrices occur in network design, facility location, capacity planning and other covering problems.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​, and let U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ be convex, compact and full-dimensional. The problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is

zAdapt(U)=min⁡  cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\min\; c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ \ x\ge0,\ \ y(b)\ge0\quad\forall b\in\mathcal U,zAdapt​(U)=mincTx+b∈Umax​dTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,

where the minimum is over first-stage vectors xxx and arbitrary maps b↦y(b)b\mapsto y(b)b↦y(b). The problem is assumed feasible. The value zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum restricted to affine second stages y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q, which must still satisfy Pb+q≥0Pb+q\ge0Pb+q≥0 on U\mathcal UU.

For each coordinate jjj put μj=max⁡{bj:b∈U}\mu_j=\max\{b_j : b\in\mathcal U\}μj​=max{bj​:b∈U} and fix a maximizer βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U with βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​ (display (38)). The scaled sum of bbb over an index set JJJ is ∑j∈Jbj/μj\sum_{j\in J}b_j/\mu_j∑j∈J​bj​/μj​.

Algorithm A\mathcal AA (Fig. 1 of the paper) starts with J1={1,…,m}J_1=\{1,\dots,m\}J1​={1,…,m} and b0=0b^0=0b0=0. While some b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has scaled sum over J1J_1J1​ larger than m\sqrt mm​, it picks a maximizer uk∈Uu^k\in\mathcal Uuk∈U of that scaled sum, adds uku^kuk to the running vector on the coordinates of J1J_1J1​, and moves to J2J_2J2​ every coordinate jjj whose running value has reached μj\mu_jμj​. It returns the number of iterations KKK, the vectors u1,…,uKu^1,\dots,u^Ku1,…,uK, their sum β=u1+⋯+uK\beta=u^1+\dots+u^Kβ=u1+⋯+uK, and the partition J1,J2J_1,J_2J1​,J2​.

In the kkk-uncertain variant (60)–(63), only kkk right-hand sides b∈U⊆R+kb\in\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^k_+b∈U⊆R+k​ are uncertain and the remaining m−km-km−k are fixed at b0b^0b0; all data are nonnegative. Its values are zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdaptk​(U) and zAffk(U)z^k_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAffk​(U).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

If A≥0A\ge0A≥0 entrywise, then a feasible affine solution exists and

zAff(U)≤3m⋅zAdapt(U).z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le 3\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).zAff​(U)≤3m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

Milestones

  1. μj>0\mu_j>0μj​>0 for every jjj (after (38)).
  2. Lemma 9. For every complete run of Algorithm A\mathcal AA: ∑j∈J1bj/μj≤m\sum_{j\in J_1}b_j/\mu_j\le\sqrt m∑j∈J1​​bj​/μj​≤m​ for all b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U, and bj≤βjb_j\le\beta_jbj​≤βj​ for all j∈J2j\in J_2j∈J2​ and b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U.
  3. Lemma 10. Algorithm A\mathcal AA executes at most K≤2mK\le2\sqrt mK≤2m​ iterations.
  4. Feasibility (48)–(55). For any feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), the solution x~=3m x∗\tilde x=3\sqrt m\,x^*x~=3m​x∗, y~(b)=∑j∈J1bjμjy∗(βj)+y^\tilde y(b)=\sum_{j\in J_1}\frac{b_j}{\mu_j}y^*(\beta^j)+\hat yy~​(b)=∑j∈J1​​μj​bj​​y∗(βj)+y^​ with y^=2mK∑k=1Ky∗(uk)\hat y=\frac{2\sqrt m}{K}\sum_{k=1}^Ky^*(u^k)y^​=K2m​​∑k=1K​y∗(uk) is feasible.
  5. Cost (56)–(59). If ttt bounds the worst-case cost of (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), then 3m⋅t3\sqrt m\cdot t3m​⋅t bounds that of (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​).

Companion results

  • Algorithm A\mathcal AA has a complete run when U\mathcal UU is compact.
  • Lemma 11. z(Π1)≤zAdaptk(U)z(\Pi_1)\le z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)z(Π1​)≤zAdaptk​(U) and z(Π2)≤zAdaptk(U)z(\Pi_2)\le z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)z(Π2​)≤zAdaptk​(U) for the uncertain and deterministic parts of the kkk-uncertain problem.
  • Theorem 5. zAffk(U)≤(3k+1)⋅zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le(3\sqrt k+1)\cdot z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAffk​(U)≤(3k​+1)⋅zAdaptk​(U), the paper's O(k)O(\sqrt k)O(k​) bound with its proof's constant.
  • Special case (39)–(45). If ∑j=1mbj/μj≤m\sum_{j=1}^m b_j/\mu_j\le\sqrt m∑j=1m​bj​/μj​≤m​ on U\mathcal UU, then zAff(U)≤m⋅zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≤m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

Significance

Theorem 4 is an upper bound on the price of restricting to affine policies, and Theorem 3 of the same paper shows it is tight up to a constant factor: for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 there are instances with A≥0A\ge0A≥0 where the gap is Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ). Together they settle the order of the approximation ratio of affine policies for covering-type two-stage problems. Theorem 5 refines the bound to O(k)O(\sqrt k)O(k​) when only kkk of the mmm right-hand sides are uncertain, which is the regime of many applications. The construction is also the template for the paper's Theorem 6, a 4m4\sqrt m4m​-approximation for general AAA obtained from a single dominating simplex.

The results are proved in the paper. To the knowledge of this mission, none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them produces a reusable model of two-stage adaptive linear programs with affine policies, a verified analysis of a greedy covering procedure (Algorithm A\mathcal AA), and an explicit-constant version of an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) statement.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt scales the fully adaptable solution at the extreme points βj\beta^jβj linearly in bbb: y~(b)=∑j(bj/μj) y∗(βj)\tilde y(b)=\sum_j (b_j/\mu_j)\,y^*(\beta^j)y~​(b)=∑j​(bj​/μj​)y∗(βj). This is feasible at cost factor m\sqrt mm​ only when the scaled sums ∑jbj/μj\sum_j b_j/\mu_j∑j​bj​/μj​ stay below m\sqrt mm​ on U\mathcal UU (condition (39)); in general they can reach mmm, and the linear rule then costs a factor mmm. The difficulty is to handle the coordinates where U\mathcal UU has large scaled mass. Algorithm A\mathcal AA isolates them, and the delicate point is the iteration count: each round must add scaled mass above m\sqrt mm​, while the total scaled mass that can be absorbed before every coordinate leaves J1J_1J1​ is at most 2m2m2m. A formal proof must also track the algorithm's state through its recursion, because the argmax choices are not unique and the statements must hold for every run.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ with the componentwise order, indices are 0-based, and matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. Nonnegativity of a matrix is stated entrywise. zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ are infima of the set of worst-case cost bounds achieved by feasible solutions; the goal and Theorem 5 assert the existence of a feasible affine solution, which rules out the trivializing reading in which zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ is the infimum of an empty set (Lean's junk value 000) and the inequality holds for free. The goal does not mention μ\muμ, βj\beta^jβj or Algorithm A\mathcal AA; these appear only in milestones.

μ\muμ and βj\beta^jβj are given with their defining properties (μj\mu_jμj​ is the greatest value of bjb_jbj​ on U\mathcal UU, and βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U with βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​). Algorithm A\mathcal AA is encoded as a recursion on a choice sequence uuu, with step 2(d) read as J1k={j∈J1k−1:bjk<μj}J_1^k=\{j\in J_1^{k-1}: b^k_j<\mu_j\}J1k​={j∈J1k−1​:bjk​<μj​}. A complete run requires the loop test and the argmax property at each iteration and the failure of the loop test at the end. The milestones on the constructed policy are stated for every feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗) and every cost bound ttt, so that no attainment of the optimum is assumed.

Standing assumptions of (1) carried by the goal: c,d≥0c,d\ge0c,d≥0; U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ convex, compact, with nonempty interior; feasibility. Milestones drop the ones they do not use. Theorem 5 carries compactness and full-dimensionality of U\mathcal UU, which §5.1 does not repeat but its proof uses through Theorem 4. Lemma 11 assumes that zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdaptk​(U) is finite, since the paper's inequality is between extended reals.

A complete development needs: finite-dimensional linear programming facts (existence of optimal solutions is not needed), compactness arguments for the argmax in Algorithm A\mathcal AA, and manipulation of finite sums over Finset. The model of (1) and the analysis of Algorithm A\mathcal AA are reusable by the companion mission on Theorem 6. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas about the recursion of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer and A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99(2), 351–376, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu and P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 363–394, 2010.
  • U. Feige, K. Jain, M. Mahdian and V. Mirrokni, Robust combinatorial optimization with exponential scenarios, Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. 4513, 439–453, 2007.
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CombinatoricsNumber Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Explicit Expanders of Every Degree and Size 1: For Distinct Primes q₁, q₂, Every Large n Has an LPS Vertex Count Q(q₁, q₂, s, t) Between n and n + o(n)Research Paper

Motivation

An (n,d,λ)(n,d,\lambda)(n,d,λ)-graph is a ddd-regular graph on nnn vertices in which every eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix other than the top eigenvalue ddd has absolute value at most λ\lambdaλ. Graphs of this kind with λ\lambdaλ small compared with ddd are expanders. They are used in derandomization, error-correcting codes, sorting networks and many other constructions in theoretical computer science. A Ramanujan graph achieves λ≤2d−1\lambda\le 2\sqrt{d-1}λ≤2d−1​, which is asymptotically optimal.

The classical explicit Ramanujan graphs of Lubotzky, Phillips and Sarnak (LPS, 1988) exist only for special vertex counts, such as q(q2−1)/2q(q^2-1)/2q(q2−1)/2 for a prime qqq or the size of a quaternion group modulo mmm. N. Alon, in Explicit expanders of every degree and size (arXiv:2003.11673, 2020; Combinatorica 41, 2021), asks for explicit (n,d,λ)(n,d,\lambda)(n,d,λ)-graphs with λ≤(2+o(1))d\lambda\le(2+o(1))\sqrt dλ≤(2+o(1))d​ for every degree ddd and every number of vertices nnn. His Proposition 1.1 builds such graphs out of LPS graphs, and one ingredient is purely arithmetic. If the available vertex counts of an LPS family are dense enough, so that for every large nnn one is within a factor 1+o(1)1+o(1)1+o(1) of nnn, then a few vertices can be added or removed while keeping the spectral bound.

This mission formalizes that ingredient, Lemma 2.2 of the paper (p. 7). It concerns the vertex counts of the LPS graphs H(p,q1sq2t)H(p,q_1^sq_2^t)H(p,q1s​q2t​) for two fixed primes q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ and all exponents s,t≥1s,t\ge1s,t≥1. With q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ fixed, the construction needs no large primes, which is why Proposition 1.1 is strongly explicit for every fixed degree.

Setting

Fix natural numbers q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​. For natural numbers s,ts,ts,t define the LPS vertex count

Q(q1,q2,s,t)=q13(s−1) q23(t−1)⋅q1(q1−1)(q1+1)2⋅q2(q2−1)(q2+1)2.Q(q_1,q_2,s,t)=q_1^{3(s-1)}\,q_2^{3(t-1)}\cdot\frac{q_1(q_1-1)(q_1+1)}{2}\cdot\frac{q_2(q_2-1)(q_2+1)}{2}.Q(q1​,q2​,s,t)=q13(s−1)​q23(t−1)​⋅2q1​(q1​−1)(q1​+1)​⋅2q2​(q2​−1)(q2​+1)​.

When q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ are distinct primes congruent to 111 modulo 4p4p4p and s,t≥1s,t\ge1s,t≥1, this is the number of vertices of the LPS Cayley graph H(p,q1sq2t)H(p,q_1^sq_2^t)H(p,q1s​q2t​) (§2.3, p. 6). Lemma 2.2 itself only requires q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ to be distinct primes. Both fractions are integers, because q(q−1)(q+1)q(q-1)(q+1)q(q−1)(q+1) is a product of three consecutive integers.

The proof uses the real number α=log⁡q1/log⁡q2\alpha=\log q_1/\log q_2α=logq1​/logq2​, and the fractional part {x}=x−⌊x⌋∈[0,1)\{x\}=x-\lfloor x\rfloor\in[0,1){x}=x−⌊x⌋∈[0,1), written x mod 1x \bmod 1xmod1 in the paper.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 2.2

For distinct primes q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ there is a function g:N→Rg:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rg:N→R with g(n)=o(n)g(n)=o(n)g(n)=o(n) such that for all sufficiently large nnn there are integers s,t≥1s,t\ge1s,t≥1 with

n≤Q(q1,q2,s,t)≤n+g(n).n\le Q(q_1,q_2,s,t)\le n+g(n).n≤Q(q1​,q2​,s,t)≤n+g(n).

Equivalently, the ratio between consecutive elements of {Q(q1,q2,s,t):s,t≥1}\{Q(q_1,q_2,s,t):s,t\ge1\}{Q(q1​,q2​,s,t):s,t≥1} tends to 111. The statement fixes no rate for ggg, matching the paper's o(n)o(n)o(n).

Milestones, in the order the proof of Lemma 2.2 uses them (p. 7)

  1. For distinct primes q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​, α=log⁡q1/log⁡q2\alpha=\log q_1/\log q_2α=logq1​/logq2​ is irrational.
  2. For irrational α\alphaα and every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 there is k1≥1k_1\ge1k1​≥1 with 0<{k1α}<δ0<\{k_1\alpha\}<\delta0<{k1​α}<δ.
  3. For distinct primes q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​ and every μ>0\mu>0μ>0 there are k1≥1k_1\ge1k1​≥1, k2≥0k_2\ge0k2​≥0 with
1≤q1k1q2k2≤1+μ.1\le \frac{q_1^{k_1}}{q_2^{k_2}}\le 1+\mu .1≤q2k2​​q1k1​​​≤1+μ.
  1. For distinct primes, μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and k1≥1k_1\ge1k1​≥1, if 1≤q1k1/q2k2≤1+μ1\le q_1^{k_1}/q_2^{k_2}\le1+\mu1≤q1k1​​/q2k2​​≤1+μ, then for s>k1s>k_1s>k1​ and t≥1t\ge1t≥1
1≤Q(q1,q2,s,t)Q(q1,q2,s−k1,t+k2)≤(1+μ)3.1\le\frac{Q(q_1,q_2,s,t)}{Q(q_1,q_2,s-k_1,t+k_2)}\le(1+\mu)^3 .1≤Q(q1​,q2​,s−k1​,t+k2​)Q(q1​,q2​,s,t)​≤(1+μ)3.

Significance

The result. Lemma 2.2 is the step of Proposition 1.1 that turns a family of Ramanujan graphs with sparse vertex counts into a family whose vertex counts approximate every large nnn up to a factor 1+o(1)1+o(1)1+o(1). The deviation from nnn can then be absorbed by the general packing argument of §2.1 of the paper. Without it, the construction would have to search for large primes depending on nnn, and the result would be explicit but not strongly explicit.

The formalization. The lemma is proved in the paper, in one paragraph. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists, and the platform has no statement of it. The only related platform item is the irrationality of log⁡2/log⁡3\log 2/\log 3log2/log3, the case q1=2q_1=2q1​=2, q2=3q_2=3q2​=3 of milestone 1. Formalizing the lemma requires a quantitative inhomogeneous step that the paper leaves implicit ("implying the desired result"). Its last sentence also contains a misprint that the formalization corrects (see below). The Diophantine milestones 1–3 are reusable for any argument about the multiplicative density of {q1aq2b}\{q_1^a q_2^b\}{q1a​q2b​}, for instance the ratio of consecutive elements of {2a3b}\{2^a3^b\}{2a3b}.

Difficulty

Each milestone is short. The difficulty is in making the paper's last sentence ("implying the desired result") into a proof. Taking sss or ttt large separately does not work: changing sss or ttt by one multiplies QQQ by q13q_1^3q13​ or q23q_2^3q23​, a fixed factor larger than 111, so the values obtained by varying one exponent leave gaps of a constant ratio. The bound must hold for every large nnn, not just along a subsequence, and the exponents must stay positive throughout. Milestone 2 is the classical fact that the multiples of an irrational number are dense modulo 111. It needs a pigeonhole argument, not just the irrationality.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. QQQ is a natural-number-valued Lean definition given by the explicit formula above, not the cardinality of a quaternion group. The graph-count interpretation needs the section's congruence conditions on p,q1,q2p,q_1,q_2p,q1​,q2​; Lemma 2.2 is an arithmetic statement for all distinct primes q1,q2q_1,q_2q1​,q2​. Every use of QQQ in the theorems has positive s,ts,ts,t, so natural-number subtraction s−1s-1s−1 is exact, and the division by 222 is exact since q(q−1)(q+1)q(q-1)(q+1)q(q−1)(q+1) is even. Ratios and the bound n+g(n)n+g(n)n+g(n) are computed in R\mathbb RR after casting. The logarithm is Real.log, and the fractional part is Int.fract.
  • o(n). The paper writes n≤Q≤n+o(n)n\le Q\le n+o(n)n≤Q≤n+o(n) for every large nnn. The goal states it literally: ∃g, g=o(n)\exists g,\ g=o(n)∃g, g=o(n) (Mathlib IsLittleO along atTop) and, eventually in nnn, ∃s,t≥1\exists s,t\ge1∃s,t≥1 with n≤Q≤n+g(n)n\le Q\le n+g(n)n≤Q≤n+g(n). This is equivalent to the form "for every μ>0\mu>0μ>0, every large nnn has s,t≥1s,t\ge1s,t≥1 with n≤Q≤(1+μ)nn\le Q\le(1+\mu)nn≤Q≤(1+μ)n". The paper's proof yields the second form, with the factor (1+μ)3(1+\mu)^3(1+μ)3 for arbitrary μ\muμ.
  • Misprint. The paper's last sentence compares Q(q1,q2,s,t)Q(q_1,q_2,s,t)Q(q1​,q2​,s,t) with Q(q1,q2,s−k1,t−k2)Q(q_1,q_2,s-k_1,t-k_2)Q(q1​,q2​,s−k1​,t−k2​) for s,t≥max⁡{k1,k2}s,t\ge\max\{k_1,k_2\}s,t≥max{k1​,k2​}. As printed the ratio is q13k1q23k2q_1^{3k_1}q_2^{3k_2}q13k1​​q23k2​​, which is not close to 111. Milestone 4 uses the intended pair (s−k1,t+k2)(s-k_1,t+k_2)(s−k1​,t+k2​), with s>k1s>k_1s>k1​ so that s−k1≥1s-k_1\ge1s−k1​≥1.
  • Ruling out a trivial reading. The lower bound n≤Q(q1,q2,s,t)n\le Q(q_1,q_2,s,t)n≤Q(q1​,q2​,s,t) alone holds for every nnn by taking sss large. The content of the goal is the upper bound with a sublinear excess, and s,ts,ts,t must be positive. In milestone 3 the condition k1≥1k_1\ge1k1​≥1 excludes the trivial witness k1=k2=0k_1=k_2=0k1​=k2​=0.
  • Out of scope. The derivation of QQQ as the vertex count of H(p,q1sq2t)H(p,q_1^sq_2^t)H(p,q1s​q2t​) (Hensel's lemma and the Chinese remainder theorem, pp. 6–7), Theorem 2.1 (the LPS graphs are Ramanujan, cited from Lubotzky–Phillips–Sarnak), Proposition 1.1, the §2.1 packing argument, and every running-time ("explicit", "strongly explicit") claim.
  • Infrastructure. Only Mathlib is needed: unique factorization for milestone 1, Int.fract and a pigeonhole or Dirichlet-approximation argument for milestone 2, and real exponentiation and asymptotics for the goal. Contributions of alternative proofs of milestone 2, for instance via Mathlib's Dirichlet approximation theorem, are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Alon, Explicit expanders of every degree and size, arXiv:2003.11673v1, 2020; Combinatorica 41 (2021). https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.11673 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00493-020-4429-x
  • A. Lubotzky, R. Phillips, P. Sarnak, Ramanujan graphs, Combinatorica 8 (1988) 261–277. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02126799
  • S. Hoory, N. Linial, A. Wigderson, Expander graphs and their applications, Bull. AMS 43 (2006) 439–561. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0273-0979-06-01126-8
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior 3: The Conditional Logit Likelihood Has a Maximum Exactly When No Direction Makes Every Observed Choice Weakly BestResearch Paper

Motivation

The conditional logit model is the workhorse of discrete choice analysis in transportation, marketing, labour and industrial organization. McFadden's 1974 chapter derived it from a theory of population choice behaviour and showed how to estimate it by maximum likelihood; this line of work was recognized by his 2000 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, awarded for theory and methods of discrete choice analysis. Every applied logit estimation rests on a basic question: does the maximum likelihood estimate exist for the sample at hand? In small samples it may not. When one alternative is always chosen whenever it is available, the likelihood keeps increasing as a parameter tends to infinity, and numerical optimizers report diverging coefficients. This failure is known in the binary case as complete or quasi-complete separation. McFadden's Lemma 3 gives the exact condition, for the multinomial conditional logit model with general alternative sets, under which a maximizer exists.

Timeline. Berkson (1951, 1955) popularized binomial logit; multinomial versions were developed by Gurland (1960), Bloch (1967), Rassam (1971), McFadden (1968) and Theil (1969, 1970). McFadden (1974) stated the existence criterion for the conditional logit likelihood (Lemma 3) together with a quadratic-programming test for it (Lemma 4). Albert and Anderson (1984) later classified separation patterns for binary and multinomial logistic regression, and Haberman (1974) treated existence for log-linear models.

Setting

A choice experiment has N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 trials. Trial nnn offers an alternative set of JnJ_nJn​ alternatives, indexed i=1,…,Jni = 1,\dots,J_ni=1,…,Jn​, each described by an attribute vector zin∈RKz_{in} \in \mathbb{R}^Kzin​∈RK (the values of KKK specified functions of the individual's and the alternative's characteristics). Trial nnn is repeated Rn≥1R_n \ge 1Rn​≥1 times, and alternative iii is chosen SinS_{in}Sin​ times, so Rn=∑jSjnR_n = \sum_{j} S_{jn}Rn​=∑j​Sjn​.

For a parameter θ∈RK\theta \in \mathbb{R}^Kθ∈RK, with zinθz_{in}\thetazin​θ the inner product, the selection probabilities are

Pin(θ)=ezinθ∑j=1Jnezjnθ(16)P_{in}(\theta) = \frac{e^{z_{in}\theta}}{\sum_{j=1}^{J_n} e^{z_{jn}\theta}} \qquad (16)Pin​(θ)=∑j=1Jn​​ezjn​θezin​θ​(16)

and the log-likelihood of the sample is

L(θ)=C−∑n=1N∑i=1JnSinlog⁡∑j=1Jne(zjn−zin)θ,C=∑n=1N[log⁡Rn!−∑j=1Jnlog⁡Sjn!].(18)L(\theta) = C - \sum_{n=1}^N \sum_{i=1}^{J_n} S_{in} \log \sum_{j=1}^{J_n} e^{(z_{jn} - z_{in})\theta}, \qquad C = \sum_{n=1}^N \Big[\log R_n! - \sum_{j=1}^{J_n}\log S_{jn}!\Big]. \qquad (18)L(θ)=C−n=1∑N​i=1∑Jn​​Sin​logj=1∑Jn​​e(zjn​−zin​)θ,C=n=1∑N​[logRn​!−j=1∑Jn​​logSjn​!].(18)

Write zˉn(θ)=∑izinPin(θ)\bar z_n(\theta) = \sum_i z_{in}P_{in}(\theta)zˉn​(θ)=∑i​zin​Pin​(θ) for the probability-weighted mean attribute vector of trial nnn.

Axiom 5 (Full Rank). The (∑nJn)×K\big(\sum_n J_n\big)\times K(∑n​Jn​)×K matrix with rows zin−zˉnz_{in} - \bar z_nzin​−zˉn​ has rank KKK.

Axiom 6. There is no nonzero γ∈RK\gamma \in \mathbb{R}^Kγ∈RK with Sin(zjn−zin)γ≤0S_{in}(z_{jn} - z_{in})\gamma \le 0Sin​(zjn​−zin​)γ≤0 for all i,j=1,…,Jni, j = 1,\dots,J_ni,j=1,…,Jn​ and n=1,…,Nn = 1,\dots,Nn=1,…,N. Equivalently, no nonzero direction makes every observed choice weakly best in its alternative set.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3

Under Axiom 5,

(∃ θ^∈RK, ∀θ, L(θ)≤L(θ^))  ⟺  Axiom 6.\big(\exists\, \hat\theta \in \mathbb{R}^K,\ \forall \theta,\ L(\theta) \le L(\hat\theta)\big) \iff \text{Axiom 6}.(∃θ^∈RK, ∀θ, L(θ)≤L(θ^))⟺Axiom 6.

Milestones

  1. Equation (19): the gradient ∂L/∂θ=∑n∑j(Sjn−RnPjn)zjn\partial L/\partial\theta = \sum_n \sum_j (S_{jn} - R_nP_{jn}) z_{jn}∂L/∂θ=∑n​∑j​(Sjn​−Rn​Pjn​)zjn​.
  2. Equation (20): the Hessian ∂2L/∂θ ∂θ′=−∑nRn∑j(zjn−zˉn)′Pjn(zjn−zˉn)\partial^2L/\partial\theta\,\partial\theta' = -\sum_n R_n \sum_j (z_{jn} - \bar z_n)'P_{jn}(z_{jn} - \bar z_n)∂2L/∂θ∂θ′=−∑n​Rn​∑j​(zjn​−zˉn​)′Pjn​(zjn​−zˉn​).
  3. LLL is concave, and every critical point is a global maximizer.
  4. A Hessian that is nonsingular everywhere makes LLL strictly concave with at most one maximizer.
  5. Axiom 5 holds at θ\thetaθ if and only if the Hessian at θ\thetaθ is negative definite.
  6. Necessity: under Axiom 5, a maximizer forces Axiom 6.
  7. Equation (21): under Axiom 6, b(γ)=max⁡nmax⁡i,jSin(zjn−zin)γb(\gamma) = \max_n \max_{i,j} S_{in}(z_{jn}-z_{in})\gammab(γ)=maxn​maxi,j​Sin​(zjn​−zin​)γ has a positive lower bound b∗b^*b∗ on the unit sphere.
  8. The bound L(θ)−C≤−b∗∣θ∣L(\theta) - C \le -b^*|\theta|L(θ)−C≤−b∗∣θ∣ for all θ\thetaθ.
  9. Sufficiency: Axiom 6 gives a maximizer.

Significance

Lemma 3 tells the practitioner when the conditional logit maximum likelihood estimate exists, before any numerical optimization is attempted. It is a linear-inequality condition on the data alone, so it can be checked by linear or quadratic programming (Lemma 4 of the same paper). The existence of the estimator is also the first step of McFadden's asymptotic theory: Lemma 5 shows that Axiom 6 holds with probability tending to one, and Lemma 6, consistency and asymptotic normality, concerns the estimator whose existence Lemma 3 characterizes. The concavity and Hessian formulas (19)–(20) are the basis of the Newton–Raphson computation of the estimator and of its asymptotic covariance matrix.

The result has been proved since 1974 and is classical. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof; Mathlib has no statement about the existence of logit or softmax-regression maximum likelihood estimates. Formalizing it produces a verified existence criterion for the multinomial logit likelihood, verified gradient and Hessian formulas for log-sum-exp likelihoods with repeated observations, and a verified link between full column rank and strict concavity.

Difficulty

The likelihood is concave, and concave functions on RK\mathbb{R}^KRK need not attain their supremum. Concavity alone therefore gives nothing, and existence must come from a growth condition. The obvious approach, "the likelihood is bounded above by CCC, hence attains its maximum", fails: LLL is bounded but can approach its supremum only at infinity, which is exactly the separation case. Sufficiency needs a quantitative rate at which LLL decreases, uniform over all directions; a direction-by-direction argument does not suffice. Necessity requires strict concavity, which is where Axiom 5 and the requirement that every trial be observed enter. A trial with Rn=0R_n = 0Rn​=0 can supply the rank of Axiom 5 while contributing nothing to LLL, so with such a trial necessity fails. The calculus part, (19)–(20), involves differentiating sums of log-sum-exp terms over dependent index types and identifying the result with a weighted covariance operator.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. RK\mathbb{R}^KRK is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin K), so ∣θ∣=(θ′θ)1/2|\theta| = (\theta'\theta)^{1/2}∣θ∣=(θ′θ)1/2 is the Euclidean norm and zθz\thetazθ is the inner product ⟪z, θ⟫. Trials are Fin N, alternatives of trial nnn are Fin (J n), and the counts SinS_{in}Sin​ are natural numbers.
  • Data structure. The structure Data K bundles NNN, JJJ, zzz, SSS and the standing assumptions N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 and Rn=∑iSin≥1R_n = \sum_i S_{in} \ge 1Rn​=∑i​Sin​≥1 for every trial; these make the trial and alternative index sets nonempty.
  • Axioms 1–4 are built in. The model is the logit form (16) with vvv linear in θ\thetaθ (Axiom 4), so "Suppose Axioms 1–5 hold" becomes "Data plus Axiom 5".
  • Axiom 5 is read at every θ\thetaθ. The row space of the matrix does not depend on θ\thetaθ.
  • Hessian. The Hessian is the Fréchet derivative of the gradient vector field (19), as a continuous linear map.
  • The maximizer is global over all of RK\mathbb{R}^KRK. Neither a local maximizer nor "L(θ^)≥L(0)L(\hat\theta) \ge L(0)L(θ^)≥L(0)" is acceptable as the goal; that would make it trivial.
  • Infrastructure. Gradients and Hessians of log-sum-exp with dependent finite index types; positive definiteness from full column rank; attainment of the maximum of a coercive continuous function on a finite-dimensional space. The calculus lemmas are reusable for any multinomial logit or softmax likelihood. Missions 4 and 5 of this series reuse the same model. Contributions of general log-sum-exp lemmas, independent of this mission's definitions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. McFadden, Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, New York, 1974, pp. 105–142. https://eml.berkeley.edu/reprints/mcfadden/zarembka.pdf
  • A. Albert and J. A. Anderson, On the existence of maximum likelihood estimates in logistic regression models, Biometrika 71(1), 1984, pp. 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.1.1
  • S. J. Haberman, The Analysis of Frequency Data, University of Chicago Press, 1974.
  • J. Berkson, Maximum likelihood and minimum χ² estimates of the logistic function, Journal of the American Statistical Association 50, 1955, pp. 130–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1955.10501255
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reversibility and Stochastic Networks IX: Partial Balance — Equivalent Characterizations via Truncation, Rate Changes and Time ReversalTextbook

Why partial balance

Equilibrium distributions of Markov models of networks are rarely computed by solving the full equilibrium equations directly. In the classical product-form results (migration processes, Jackson and Kelly networks, loss networks, clustering processes) the equilibrium distribution satisfies a stronger, local family of equations, and that is what makes it computable. The strongest such family is detailed balance, which characterizes reversibility. Many models that are not reversible still satisfy an intermediate family, partial balance: the probability flux balances not pair by pair but across a chosen set of transitions. F. P. Kelly's Reversibility and Stochastic Networks (Wiley, 1979) uses partial balance throughout: quasi-reversibility in Chapter 3 is a form of it, and the models that display it tend to be insensitive, meaning their equilibrium distribution does not change when exponential holding times are replaced by general ones with the same mean.

Section 9.4 of the book collects what partial balance means in a single statement. Theorem 9.5 summarizes Exercises 1.6.2–1.6.4 and 1.7.7–1.7.8 and gives five operational characterizations of partial balance. Corollaries 9.6–9.8 translate them into the language of spatial processes, and Theorem 9.9 turns partial balance of a coarse description into a product-form equilibrium for a finer one. This last step is the mechanism behind insensitivity.

Setting

A Markov process on a state space S\mathcal SS has transition rates q(j,k)≥0q(j,k)\ge0q(j,k)≥0 for j≠kj\ne kj=k, with q(j,j)=0q(j,j)=0q(j,j)=0. It is irreducible: every state can be reached from every other through transitions of positive rate. An equilibrium distribution is a collection of positive numbers π(j)\pi(j)π(j) summing to one that satisfies the equilibrium equations

π(j)∑k∈Sq(j,k)=∑k∈Sπ(k)q(k,j),j∈S.\pi(j)\sum_{k\in\mathcal S}q(j,k)=\sum_{k\in\mathcal S}\pi(k)q(k,j),\qquad j\in\mathcal S.π(j)k∈S∑​q(j,k)=k∈S∑​π(k)q(k,j),j∈S.

For an irreducible process on a finite state space it exists and is unique.

Given a set A⊆S\mathcal A\subseteq\mathcal SA⊆S, π\piπ satisfies partial balance with respect to A\mathcal AA if

π(j)∑k∈Aq(j,k)=∑k∈Aπ(k)q(k,j),j∈A.\pi(j)\sum_{k\in\mathcal A}q(j,k)=\sum_{k\in\mathcal A}\pi(k)q(k,j),\qquad j\in\mathcal A.π(j)k∈A∑​q(j,k)=k∈A∑​π(k)q(k,j),j∈A.

Truncating the process to A\mathcal AA deletes every transition out of A\mathcal AA, and the result is required to be irreducible within A\mathcal AA. The time-reversed process of a process with equilibrium distribution π\piπ has rates π(k)q(k,j)/π(j)\pi(k)q(k,j)/\pi(j)π(k)q(k,j)/π(j).

A spatial process has JJJ sites, the vertices of a graph GGG. Site jjj carries an attribute njn_jnj​ from a finite set Nj\mathcal N_jNj​, and the state space is S=N1×⋯×NJ\mathcal S=\mathcal N_1\times\cdots\times\mathcal N_JS=N1​×⋯×NJ​. Write TjmnT_j^m\mathbf nTjm​n for the state n\mathbf nn with the attribute of site jjj changed to mmm. The process must satisfy three conditions: only one site changes at a time; the rate q(n,Tjmn)q(\mathbf n,T_j^m\mathbf n)q(n,Tjm​n) depends on the other sites only through the neighbours of jjj; and any TjmnT_j^m\mathbf nTjm​n can be reached from n\mathbf nn without changing the other sites. The conditional distribution of site jjj given the rest is P(nj∣nG−j)=π(n)/∑mπ(Tjmn)P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{G-j})=\pi(\mathbf n)/\sum_m\pi(T_j^m\mathbf n)P(nj​∣nG−j​)=π(n)/∑m​π(Tjm​n). A Markov field is a positive distribution whose conditional distributions depend only on the neighbours of jjj.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.5

For an irreducible process on a finite S\mathcal SS with equilibrium distribution π\piπ, a nonempty A\mathcal AA within which the truncated process is irreducible, and a constant c>0c>0c>0, c≠1c\ne1c=1, the following are equivalent:

  1. partial balance with respect to A\mathcal AA;
  2. the equilibrium distribution of the truncated process is π(j)/∑k∈Aπ(k)\pi(j)/\sum_{k\in\mathcal A}\pi(k)π(j)/∑k∈A​π(k);
  3. multiplying the rates q(j,k)q(j,k)q(j,k), j,k∈Aj,k\in\mathcal Aj,k∈A, by ccc leaves the equilibrium distribution unchanged;
  4. multiplying the rates q(j,k)q(j,k)q(j,k), j∈Aj\in\mathcal Aj∈A, k∉Ak\notin\mathcal Ak∈/A, by ccc changes the equilibrium distribution to
Bπ(j) (j∈A),Bcπ(j) (j∉A),B−1=∑j∈Aπ(j)+c∑j∉Aπ(j);B\pi(j)\ (j\in\mathcal A),\qquad Bc\pi(j)\ (j\notin\mathcal A),\qquad B^{-1}=\sum_{j\in\mathcal A}\pi(j)+c\sum_{j\notin\mathcal A}\pi(j);Bπ(j) (j∈A),Bcπ(j) (j∈/A),B−1=j∈A∑​π(j)+cj∈/A∑​π(j);
  1. time reversal and truncation to A\mathcal AA commute.

When S−A\mathcal S-\mathcal AS−A is nonempty, these are also equivalent to:

  1. the chain observed just before each exit from A\mathcal AA and the chain observed just after each entry into A\mathcal AA have the same equilibrium distribution.

Milestones

  • Corollary 9.6: the equivalences for the sets on which all sites but jjj are frozen, i.e. partial balance (9.26) at a site.
  • Corollary 9.7: on a state space with at least two states, partial balance at every site makes π\piπ a Markov field, with 0<π(n)<10<\pi(\mathbf n)<10<π(n)<1 as in the book's definition.
  • Corollary 9.8: the equivalences for the set on which site jjj is frozen at one attribute (9.27).
  • Theorem 9.9: if a reduced description n=f(x)\mathbf n=f(\mathbf x)n=f(x) has a distribution π(n)\pi(\mathbf n)π(n) in partial balance for the rates (9.31), then the finer process has equilibrium distribution π(x)=π(n)∏jPj(xj∣nj)\pi(\mathbf x)=\pi(\mathbf n)\prod_jP_j(x_j\mid n_j)π(x)=π(n)∏j​Pj​(xj​∣nj​).

What the results give

Theorem 9.5 makes partial balance testable by operations on the process itself: truncation, speeding up or slowing down transitions, and time reversal. The book points to close relationships between statement (iv) and the product form of Section 2.3, and between statement (ii) and part (iii) of Theorem 3.12. Corollary 9.6 (iv) explains why the reversed migration process has such a simple form. Corollary 9.7 strengthens Theorem 9.3 by replacing reversibility with partial balance at each site. Theorem 9.9 is the step from partial balance to insensitivity: it is what the book uses to show that a spatial process keeps its equilibrium distribution when the lifetimes of attributes are mixtures of gamma distributions.

All of these results were proved in 1979. None has a machine-checked proof. The platform has the reversible special case of statement (ii) (KellyStochasticNetworks.truncated_reversible) and the rate-level objects for time reversal and truncation, which this mission reuses. Formalizing Theorem 9.5 also produces a reusable account of embedded exit and entry chains of a finite Markov process.

Difficulty

Most of the equivalences (i)–(v) are short manipulations of the equilibrium equations, but each direction from a property of an altered process back to partial balance needs uniqueness of equilibrium distributions for irreducible finite processes, and (v) ⇒ (i) also needs their existence. Mathlib has neither in the form needed here. Statement (vi) is a different kind of claim. The equilibrium distribution of the exit chain is proportional to the exit flux π(j)∑k∉Aq(j,k)\pi(j)\sum_{k\notin\mathcal A}q(j,k)π(j)∑k∈/A​q(j,k), and that of the entry chain to the entry flux. Proving this requires the hitting distributions and the Green's function of the jump chain killed on leaving a set, and the convergence of the series that define them. Corollary 9.8 (v) inherits that work. Theorem 9.9 requires uniqueness for the reduced frozen processes and careful bookkeeping of the fibres {xj:fj(xj)=nj}\{x_j:f_j(x_j)=n_j\}{xj​:fj​(xj​)=nj​}.

Formalization scope

State spaces are finite types, and every sum is an unconditional sum over a finite type. Because the state space is finite, the book's extra condition for (vi), a finite flux out of A\mathcal AA, holds automatically. Rates are real functions with q(j,j)=0q(j,j)=0q(j,j)=0 built into the hypotheses; the reduced rates of (9.31) also have zero self-rates. "The equilibrium distribution of a process is XXX" means: XXX is positive, sums to one, satisfies the equilibrium equations, and every distribution with these properties equals XXX. The book's "c≠0c\ne0c=0 or 111" is read as c>0c>0c>0, c≠1c\ne1c=1, so that altered rates remain rates. Truncation to A\mathcal AA is the published truncatedRates, a process on the subtype A\mathcal AA, and the reversed rates are the published reversedRates. The exit and entry chains are defined from the jump chain through series of restricted matrix powers. Spatial processes live on ∏jNj\prod_j\mathcal N_j∏j​Nj​ with TjmT_j^mTjm​ given by Function.update. In Theorem 9.9 the graph is complete, as the book assumes from p. 202 on.

The equilibrium distribution of the truncated process must be the unique positive normalized solution of the truncated equilibrium equations. It must not be defined as the conditional distribution, which would make (ii) a tautology. For the same reason (iii) and (iv) are stated through the equilibrium equations of the altered rates, not by assumption.

Theorem 9.10 (p. 207) is not a target. Its hypothesis, that a nominal lifetime "can have any distribution with unit mean", is not defined on the page, and the point-process and lifetime description it needs lies outside this rate-level development.

Contributions are welcome at every level: uniqueness and existence of equilibrium distributions for irreducible finite rate matrices (reusable across the series), convergence of the killed Green's function, and proofs of the corollaries from the goal.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, Wiley, Chichester, 1979; reissued Cambridge University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139171724 (§9.4, pp. 200–208; §1.6, pp. 25–27)
  • F. P. Kelly and E. Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139565363
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Convex OptimizationFunctional AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Primal–Dual Splitting Method for Convex Optimization Involving Lipschitzian, Proximable and Linear Composite Terms I: Iterates Converge Weakly to a Primal–Dual Solution When 1/τ − σ‖L‖² ≥ β/2Research Paper

Motivation

Many convex optimization models combine a smooth loss, a nonsmooth penalty whose proximity operator is easy to compute, and a second penalty applied after a linear map. Imaging models, for example, often place a data-fitting term on the image and a regularizer on its transformed coefficients. The resulting objective has the form F(x)+G(x)+H(Lx)F(x)+G(x)+H(Lx)F(x)+G(x)+H(Lx). Condat's primal–dual method evaluates the smooth gradient and two proximity operators separately, without requiring a proximity operator for the composite H∘LH\circ LH∘L. Condat, 2013 establishes weak convergence with relaxation and summably weighted computational errors. This mission targets its main positive-smoothness theorem, Theorem 3.1, in the final author's version.

The theorem matters when a computed gradient or proximal point is inexact, as is common when a proximal subproblem is itself solved numerically. Its conditions account for these errors directly rather than treating the displayed algorithm as exact. It also gives one parameter regime for two orders of updating the primal and dual variables. These two algorithms share an objective and a solution inclusion, but have distinct recursions.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX and Y\mathcal YY be real Hilbert spaces and let L:X→YL:\mathcal X\to\mathcal YL:X→Y be bounded linear, with adjoint L∗L^*L∗. The smooth term F:X→RF:\mathcal X\to\mathbb RF:X→R is convex and differentiable. Its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz when ∥∇F(x)−∇F(x′)∥≤β∥x−x′∥\|\nabla F(x)-\nabla F(x')\|\le\beta\|x-x'\|∥∇F(x)−∇F(x′)∥≤β∥x−x′∥ for all x,x′x,x'x,x′. The nonsmooth terms GGG and HHH are proper, lower semicontinuous, convex functions with values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}R∪{+∞}. Such functions form the class Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​. An infinite value may encode a constraint.

For a convex function JJJ, its proximity operator prox⁡γJ(s)\operatorname{prox}_{\gamma J}(s)proxγJ​(s) minimizes J(u)+∥u−s∥2/(2γ)J(u)+\|u-s\|^2/(2\gamma)J(u)+∥u−s∥2/(2γ) over uuu, where γ>0\gamma>0γ>0. The Fenchel conjugate is J∗(v)=sup⁡u{⟨v,u⟩−J(u)}J^*(v)=\sup_u\{\langle v,u\rangle-J(u)\}J∗(v)=supu​{⟨v,u⟩−J(u)}. A subgradient v∈∂J(u)v\in\partial J(u)v∈∂J(u) obeys J(u)+⟨v,u′−u⟩≤J(u′)J(u)+\langle v,u'-u\rangle\le J(u')J(u)+⟨v,u′−u⟩≤J(u′) for every u′u'u′. The sought primal–dual solution (x^,y^)(\hat x,\hat y)(x^,y^​) satisfies

−L∗y^−∇F(x^)∈∂G(x^),Lx^∈∂H∗(y^).-L^*\hat y-\nabla F(\hat x)\in\partial G(\hat x),\qquad L\hat x\in\partial H^*(\hat y).−L∗y^​−∇F(x^)∈∂G(x^),Lx^∈∂H∗(y^​).

Algorithms 3.1 and 3.2 maintain sequences xn∈Xx_n\in\mathcal Xxn​∈X and yn∈Yy_n\in\mathcal Yyn​∈Y. Algorithm 3.1 updates the primal proximity step before the dual one; Algorithm 3.2 reverses that order. Each uses positive step sizes τ,σ\tau,\sigmaτ,σ, positive relaxation weights ρn\rho_nρn​, and errors eF,ne_{F,n}eF,n​, eG,ne_{G,n}eG,n​ and eH,ne_{H,n}eH,n​ in the gradient and the two proximal evaluations. Their full recursions are part of the Lean setting, so a run is determined by its initial pair. The paper specifies the problem in §2 and both algorithms in §3.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 3.1 on p. 5. Suppose β>0\beta>0β>0, the primal–dual solution set is nonempty, and G,H∈Γ0G,H\in\Gamma_0G,H∈Γ0​. Set

δ=2−β2(1τ−σ∥L∥2)−1.\delta=2-\frac{\beta}{2}\left(\frac1\tau-\sigma\|L\|^2\right)^{-1}.δ=2−2β​(τ1​−σ∥L∥2)−1.

For τ,σ>0\tau,\sigma>0τ,σ>0, the theorem assumes

1τ−σ∥L∥2≥β2,0<ρn<δfor every n,\frac1\tau-\sigma\|L\|^2\ge\frac\beta2,\qquad 0<\rho_n<\delta\quad\text{for every }n,τ1​−σ∥L∥2≥2β​,0<ρn​<δfor every n, ∑n≥0ρn(δ−ρn)=+∞,∑n≥0ρn∥eF,n∥<∞,∑n≥0ρn∥eG,n∥<∞,∑n≥0ρn∥eH,n∥<∞.\sum_{n\ge0}\rho_n(\delta-\rho_n)=+\infty,\qquad\sum_{n\ge0}\rho_n\|e_{F,n}\|<\infty,\quad\sum_{n\ge0}\rho_n\|e_{G,n}\|<\infty,\quad\sum_{n\ge0}\rho_n\|e_{H,n}\|<\infty.n≥0∑​ρn​(δ−ρn​)=+∞,n≥0∑​ρn​∥eF,n​∥<∞,n≥0∑​ρn​∥eG,n​∥<∞,n≥0∑​ρn​∥eH,n​∥<∞.

Under these conditions, both sequences of each algorithm converge weakly to the components of a primal–dual solution. The solution may depend on the initial pair and on the run. The milestone list includes Lemmas 4.1 and 4.3–4.5, the strict positivity claim for the block operator PPP, estimate (29), and the error-free optimality inclusions (22) and (44), ordered as preliminary results followed by the two algorithm-specific claims. These targets match the results stated in §4 of the source version.

Significance

The result supplies a convergence guarantee for a composite objective under an explicit coupling condition on τ\tauτ, σ\sigmaσ, and ∥L∥\|L\|∥L∥. It permits relaxation weights that vary with nnn and errors that are summable only after weighting by those same relaxation values. The dual conclusion is substantive: convergence of the primal sequence alone would not give convergence of the dual certificate produced by the algorithm. The weak topology is appropriate in general Hilbert spaces; norm convergence would assert more than the paper proves.

The theorem is proved in the 2013 paper. The present formalization task is to give its statement and the selected operator lemmas machine-checked proofs in Lean. Related platform definitions for proximal maps, monotone operators, nonexpansive maps, subgradients and weak convergence already exist; the paper-specific convergence theorem and its selected milestones are new targets in this proposal. The resulting definitions and abstract Lemmas 4.1, 4.3–4.5 can be reused in later operator-splitting developments.

Difficulty

The displayed recursions involve three errors, two proximal evaluations, a linear map and its adjoint, and two different update orders. A direct estimate on ∥xn+1−x^∥\|x_{n+1}-\hat x\|∥xn+1​−x^∥ does not by itself control the coupled dual variable, while a bound on only the combined objective value would not establish weak convergence of either iterate. The relaxation condition permits weights without a fixed positive lower bound, so a convergence argument cannot replace the stated divergent series by a simpler constant-step assumption. The abstract lemmas must also retain the endpoints α2=1\alpha_2=1α2​=1 and γ=2κ\gamma=2\kappaγ=2κ present in the source.

Formalization scope

Lean uses complete real inner-product spaces for X\mathcal XX and Y\mathcal YY, a continuous linear map for LLL, and EReal for GGG, HHH and their conjugates. The conjugate supremum is taken in EReal. The paper's Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ class and proximity maps use published definitions; the latter are parameters constrained to be the actual proximal minimizers. Positive step sizes and proper closed convex data ensure such maps exist and are unique. The subgradient predicate explicitly requires a finite value at the base point; this follows from the source's properness assumptions when a subgradient exists.

Both algorithms are represented by recursion predicates on every natural-number index, with all error terms present. The goal quantifies over every run and chooses its weak limit afterwards. Divergence to +∞+\infty+∞ means finite partial sums tend to atTop; a finite weighted error sum means the corresponding nonnegative real sequence is summable. These choices prevent a default value of an infinite sum from satisfying the hypotheses. The nonempty solution set is an explicit standing assumption from p. 4 and implies the earlier nonempty-primal-minimizer assumption. A condition that made all runs impossible, or one that discarded either the primal or dual conclusion, would not represent Theorem 3.1.

The block operator PPP is represented through its quadratic form qPq_PqP​; P′P'P′ is recorded for Algorithm 3.2. The complete development will need the abstract iteration lemmas, proximal optimality conditions, block-metric estimates, and the links from each algorithm's inclusion to the solution set. Contributions proving those results, or building reusable Hilbert-space operator infrastructure needed by them, are in scope. The several-composite-functions extension in Theorem 5.1 is reserved for separate work.

Selected references

  • Laurent Condat, A primal–dual splitting method for convex optimization involving Lipschitzian, proximable and linear composite terms, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 158(2):460–479, 2013. DOI; final author's version, hal-00609728v5.
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Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior 2: Random Utility Maximizers Choose by Logit Exactly When Taste Shocks Are Extreme-Value DistributedResearch Paper

Motivation

The conditional logit model assigns to an alternative iii in a finite choice set the probability eVi/∑jeVje^{V_i}/\sum_j e^{V_j}eVi​/∑j​eVj​, where VjV_jVj​ is a "representative utility" built from observed attributes of the alternative and the decision maker. It is the workhorse of discrete choice econometrics, transportation demand forecasting, marketing and revenue management, where it underlies multinomial logit assortment and pricing models. Its appeal for applied work is computational; its appeal for economics is that it can be read as the aggregate behaviour of a population of utility maximizers. This mission formalizes the result that makes that reading exact: Lemmas 1 and 2 of D. McFadden, Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior (1974), which show that, under a mild regularity condition, logit choice probabilities arise from random utility maximization exactly when the idiosyncratic taste shocks follow the extreme value (Gumbel) distribution.

Timeline:

  • 1959. J. Marschak gives a nonconstructive proof that i.i.d. extreme value shocks yield logit probabilities; R. D. Luce's choice axiom appears the same year.
  • 1965. Luce and Suppes publish the constructive argument, attributed to E. Holman and A. Marley, that is reproduced as the proof of Lemma 1.
  • 1974. McFadden proves the converse (Lemma 2): if i.i.d. shocks with a translation complete distribution produce logit probabilities, the distribution is extreme value.
  • Later. The random utility characterization was extended to correlated shocks (generalized extreme value models, McFadden 1978), which are not part of this mission.

Setting

An individual faces J≥1J \ge 1J≥1 alternatives with representative utilities V1,…,VJ∈RV_1, \dots, V_J \in \mathbb{R}V1​,…,VJ​∈R. The utility of alternative jjj is Uj=Vj+εjU_j = V_j + \varepsilon_jUj​=Vj​+εj​, where the taste shocks ε1,…,εJ\varepsilon_1, \dots, \varepsilon_Jε1​,…,εJ​ are independent and identically distributed with a common law μ\muμ on R\mathbb{R}R and distribution function G(t)=μ((−∞,t])G(t) = \mu((-\infty, t])G(t)=μ((−∞,t]). The individual chooses the alternative of highest utility, so the selection probability of iii is (Equation (2) of the paper)

Pi(V)=Pr⁡[εj−εi<Vi−Vj  for all j≠i],P_i(V) = \Pr\big[\varepsilon_j - \varepsilon_i < V_i - V_j \ \text{ for all } j \ne i\big],Pi​(V)=Pr[εj​−εi​<Vi​−Vj​  for all j=i],

computed under the product law of the shocks. The logit formula (Equation (12)) is Li(V)=eVi/∑j=1JeVjL_i(V) = e^{V_i}/\sum_{j=1}^J e^{V_j}Li​(V)=eVi​/∑j=1J​eVj​. The extreme value law (Equation (13)) is G(ε)=e−e−εG(\varepsilon) = e^{-e^{-\varepsilon}}G(ε)=e−e−ε.

A law μ\muμ is translation complete if for every function hhh of bounded total variation on R\mathbb{R}R with h(±∞)=0h(\pm\infty) = 0h(±∞)=0, the condition ∫h(e+a) dμ(e)=0\int h(e + a)\, d\mu(e) = 0∫h(e+a)dμ(e)=0 for every real aaa forces h=0h = 0h=0 outside a Lebesgue-null set. Laws whose characteristic function never vanishes, the extreme value law among them, are translation complete (footnote 5 of the paper).

In Lean the law is μ : Measure ℝ with [IsProbabilityMeasure μ], GGG is ProbabilityTheory.cdf μ, the selection probability is selProb μ V i for V : Fin J → ℝ, and the logit formula is logitProb V i.

Formalization targets

Goal: the characterization

Fix a universe XXX of alternatives with a representative utility map u:X→Ru:X\to\mathbb Ru:X→R onto the real line. For a translation complete law μ\muμ normalized by G(0)=e−1G(0) = e^{-1}G(0)=e−1,

(for every finite B⊆X, i∈B: Pi(B)=eu(i)∑j∈Beu(j))  ⟺  (∀ε∈R: G(ε)=e−e−ε).\Big(\text{for every finite }B\subseteq X,\ i\in B:\ P_i(B) = \frac{e^{u(i)}}{\sum_{j\in B} e^{u(j)}}\Big) \iff \Big(\forall \varepsilon \in \mathbb{R}:\ G(\varepsilon) = e^{-e^{-\varepsilon}}\Big).(for every finite B⊆X, i∈B: Pi​(B)=∑j∈B​eu(j)eu(i)​)⟺(∀ε∈R: G(ε)=e−e−ε).

The normalization only fixes the location of the shocks: without it the conclusion is the one-parameter family of Lemma 2 below.

Milestones

  1. Equation (3) for i.i.d. shocks without atoms: Pi(V)=∫∏j≠iG(ε+Vi−Vj) dG(ε)P_i(V) = \int \prod_{j \ne i} G(\varepsilon + V_i - V_j)\, dG(\varepsilon)Pi​(V)=∫∏j=i​G(ε+Vi​−Vj​)dG(ε).
  2. The integrand of Lemma 1's proof: under (13), the density times the other distribution functions equals e−εexp⁡(−e−ε∑jeVj−Vi)e^{-\varepsilon} \exp\big(-e^{-\varepsilon} \sum_j e^{V_j - V_i}\big)e−εexp(−e−ε∑j​eVj​−Vi​).
  3. Lemma 1: extreme value shocks give Pi(V)=Li(V)P_i(V) = L_i(V)Pi​(V)=Li​(V) for every JJJ and VVV.
  4. The functional equation of Lemma 2's proof: G(v−log⁡K)=G(v)KG(v - \log K) = G(v)^KG(v−logK)=G(v)K for every positive integer KKK and real vvv.
  5. Values at logarithms of rationals: with α=−log⁡G(0)\alpha = -\log G(0)α=−logG(0), α>0\alpha > 0α>0 and G(log⁡(K/L))=e−αL/KG(\log(K/L)) = e^{-\alpha L / K}G(log(K/L))=e−αL/K for positive integers K,LK, LK,L.
  6. Lemma 2: G(ε)=e−αe−εG(\varepsilon) = e^{-\alpha e^{-\varepsilon}}G(ε)=e−αe−ε for some α>0\alpha > 0α>0, and G(0)=e−1G(0) = e^{-1}G(0)=e−1 gives (13).

Significance

The result separates two readings of the logit formula. Lemma 1 shows that it is consistent with utility maximization; Lemma 2 shows that, within the class of i.i.d. additive random utility models with translation complete shocks, the extreme value law is the only one consistent with it. Consequences drawn from the random utility reading, such as the log-sum formula for expected maximum utility used in welfare analysis, therefore apply to logit models without further distributional assumptions inside that class. The same reading supports the interpretation of multinomial logit demand in assortment optimization and revenue management.

Both lemmas are proved in the paper and in later textbooks; neither is open. As far as a search of the Prove2Me catalog shows, neither has a machine-checked proof. The mission provides Lean statements of the random utility model with i.i.d. shocks, of translation completeness and of the extreme value law that later discrete choice formalizations can reuse.

Difficulty

Lemma 1 is a computation with the extreme value density; its formal cost lies in passing from the product-measure probability (2) to the iterated integral (3) and evaluating an improper integral. Lemma 2 is harder. The natural first idea is to differentiate the logit identity in the utilities and solve a differential equation for GGG; this requires a density, which Lemma 2 does not assume. Without a density, the only handle on GGG is the logit identity itself, an equality of integrals against dGdGdG that holds for every utility vector; turning such integral identities into pointwise information about GGG is where the hypothesis of translation completeness enters, and it yields statements only outside a Lebesgue-null set, so one-sided continuity of distribution functions is needed to recover identities at every point. A second subtlety is that the paper's (14) is written with GGG while the event (2) is strict, so with a general law the integrals involve left limits of GGG.

Formalization scope

Alternatives are indexed by Fin J; the model is indexed by the utility vector, so the individual attributes sss and alternative attributes xjx_jxj​ enter only through VVV. The shocks have joint law Measure.pi (fun _ => μ), which is what "independently identically distributed" means; a general joint law is not allowed. The event in (2) uses strict inequalities, and the selection probability is defined for every law, with no density. Translation completeness quantifies over BoundedVariationOn h Set.univ with limits 000 at both ends; such hhh are bounded and measurable, so the integrals are genuine, and "measure zero" is Lebesgue measure.

Lemma 2's hypothesis is stated on every finite subset of the paper's alternative universe, with a surjective utility map. Distinct alternatives may have the same utility. The printed proof uses KKK equal-utility alternatives, which surjectivity alone need not supply; proving the stated theorem requires an additional continuity argument. A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the selection probability is a genuine product-measure probability, and the hypotheses of the goal are met by the extreme value law, which is translation complete with G(0)=e−1G(0) = e^{-1}G(0)=e−1.

A complete development needs: Fubini for Measure.pi over Fin J split at one coordinate; the Gumbel density and the improper integral ∫e−εe−ce−εdε=1/c\int e^{-\varepsilon} e^{-c e^{-\varepsilon}} d\varepsilon = 1/c∫e−εe−ce−εdε=1/c; the facts that bounded-variation functions are bounded and measurable and that distribution functions are right-continuous with left limits. The integral representation (milestone 1) and the Gumbel computations are reusable in any random utility formalization. Proofs of the milestones, of the footnote-5 fact that the extreme value law is translation complete, and alternative proofs of Lemma 2 are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. McFadden, Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, New York, 1974, pp. 105–142.
  • J. Marschak, Binary choice constraints and random utility indicators, in K. Arrow, S. Karlin, P. Suppes (eds.), Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960 (Stanford Symposium, 1959).
  • R. D. Luce and P. Suppes, Preference, utility, and subjective probability, in R. D. Luce, R. Bush, E. Galanter (eds.), Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. III, Wiley, 1965.
  • R. D. Luce, Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis, Wiley, 1959.
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, Wiley, 1966, p. 479.
  • D. McFadden, Modelling the choice of residential location, in A. Karlqvist et al. (eds.), Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North-Holland, 1978, pp. 75–96.
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Twice Regularized MDPs and the Equivalence Between Robustness and Regularization 2: The Greedy Policy of the R2 Optimal Value Is the Unique Optimal R2 PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

A robust Markov decision process (robust MDP) evaluates a policy against the worst transition kernel and reward in an uncertainty set around a nominal model (P0,r0)(P_0, r_0)(P0​,r0​). It is the standard model for planning when the dynamics are estimated from data (Iyengar 2005; Nilim and El Ghaoui 2005; Wiesemann, Kuhn and Rustem 2013). Its Bellman update contains an inner optimization over the uncertainty set at every state, which makes robust planning costly when the sets are not (s,a)(s,a)(s,a)-rectangular.

Derman, Geist and Mannor (arXiv:2110.06267, NeurIPS 2021) show that, for sss-rectangular ball uncertainty sets, this inner optimization can be replaced by an explicit penalty that depends both on the policy and on the value function. The resulting twice regularized (R²) MDPs have Bellman operators with no inner optimization over models. The first mission of this series formalizes the robust–regularized equivalence (Theorem 4.1 of the paper). This mission formalizes Section 5: the R² Bellman operators are monotone and contracting under a bound on the transition radius, and the greedy policy of the R² optimal value is optimal.

Setting

Let S\mathcal SS and A\mathcal AA be finite nonempty sets of states and actions, γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) a discount factor, P0(s′∣s,a)P_0(s'\mid s,a)P0​(s′∣s,a) a transition kernel and r0(s,a)r_0(s,a)r0​(s,a) a reward. A policy π∈ΔAS\pi\in\Delta_{\mathcal A}^{\mathcal S}π∈ΔAS​ assigns to each state a probability distribution πs\pi_sπs​ on A\mathcal AA. For v∈RSv\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}v∈RS write qs(a)=r0(s,a)+γ∑s′P0(s′∣s,a)v(s′)q_s(a)=r_0(s,a)+\gamma\sum_{s'}P_0(s'\mid s,a)v(s')qs​(a)=r0​(s,a)+γ∑s′​P0​(s′∣s,a)v(s′) and

[T(P0,r0)πv](s)=∑aπs(a) qs(a).[T^\pi_{(P_0,r_0)}v](s)=\sum_a\pi_s(a)\,q_s(a).[T(P0​,r0​)π​v](s)=a∑​πs​(a)qs​(a).

All norms ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ below are ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-norms, ∥a∥=(∑za(z)2)1/2\|a\|=\big(\sum_z a(z)^2\big)^{1/2}∥a∥=(∑z​a(z)2)1/2; ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ is the sup norm.

Fix nonnegative radii αsr,αsP\alpha^r_s,\alpha^P_sαsr​,αsP​ for each state. The R² regularizer is Ωv,R2(πs)=∥πs∥ (αsr+αsPγ∥v∥)\Omega_{v,\mathrm R^2}(\pi_s)=\|\pi_s\|\,(\alpha^r_s+\alpha^P_s\gamma\|v\|)Ωv,R2​(πs​)=∥πs​∥(αsr​+αsP​γ∥v∥), and the R² Bellman operators are

[Tπ,R2v](s)=[T(P0,r0)πv](s)−Ωv,R2(πs),[T∗,R2v](s)=max⁡π∈ΔAS[Tπ,R2v](s).[T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v](s)=[T^\pi_{(P_0,r_0)}v](s)-\Omega_{v,\mathrm R^2}(\pi_s),\qquad [T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v](s)=\max_{\pi\in\Delta^{\mathcal S}_{\mathcal A}}[T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v](s).[Tπ,R2v](s)=[T(P0​,r0​)π​v](s)−Ωv,R2​(πs​),[T∗,R2v](s)=π∈ΔAS​max​[Tπ,R2v](s).

A policy π\piπ is greedy for vvv when Tπ,R2v=T∗,R2vT^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v=T^{*,\mathrm R^2}vTπ,R2v=T∗,R2v.

Assumption 5.1 (bounded radius). For each sss there is ϵs>0\epsilon_s>0ϵs​>0 with

αsP≤min⁡(1−γ−ϵsγ∣S∣ ; min⁡u∈R+A,∥u∥=1, w∈R+S,∥w∥=1 ∑a,s′u(a)P0(s′∣s,a)w(s′)),\alpha^P_s\le\min\Big(\frac{1-\gamma-\epsilon_s}{\gamma\sqrt{|\mathcal S|}}\ ;\ \min_{u\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal A}_+,\|u\|=1,\ w\in\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}_+,\|w\|=1}\ \sum_{a,s'}u(a)P_0(s'\mid s,a)w(s')\Big),αsP​≤min(γ∣S∣​1−γ−ϵs​​ ; u∈R+A​,∥u∥=1, w∈R+S​,∥w∥=1min​ a,s′∑​u(a)P0​(s′∣s,a)w(s′)),

and ϵ∗=min⁡sϵs\epsilon_*=\min_s\epsilon_sϵ∗​=mins​ϵs​. The R² value function vπ,R2v^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}vπ,R2 of a policy and the R² optimal value v∗,R2v^{*,\mathrm R^2}v∗,R2 are the fixed points of Tπ,R2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}Tπ,R2 and T∗,R2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}T∗,R2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (p. 8)

Under Assumption 5.1, T∗,R2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}T∗,R2 and every Tπ,R2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}Tπ,R2 have unique fixed points; a greedy policy π∗,R2\pi^{*,\mathrm R^2}π∗,R2 for v∗,R2v^{*,\mathrm R^2}v∗,R2 exists, and every such policy satisfies

vπ∗,R2,R2=v∗,R2 ≥ vπ,R2for all π∈ΔAS;v^{\pi^{*,\mathrm R^2},\mathrm R^2}=v^{*,\mathrm R^2}\ \ge\ v^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}\qquad\text{for all }\pi\in\Delta^{\mathcal S}_{\mathcal A};vπ∗,R2,R2=v∗,R2 ≥ vπ,R2for all π∈ΔAS​;

every optimal policy is greedy; and when αsr>0\alpha^r_s>0αsr​>0 for all sss the greedy policy is unique, hence the unique optimal R² policy.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1 (p. 3): for Ω\OmegaΩ strongly convex on the simplex, Ω∗(y)=max⁡a∈Δ⟨a,y⟩−Ω(a)\Omega^*(y)=\max_{a\in\Delta}\langle a,y\rangle-\Omega(a)Ω∗(y)=maxa∈Δ​⟨a,y⟩−Ω(a) is differentiable with Lipschitz gradient equal to the unique maximizer, satisfies Ω∗(y+c1)=Ω∗(y)+c\Omega^*(y+c\mathbb 1)=\Omega^*(y)+cΩ∗(y+c1)=Ω∗(y)+c, and is non-decreasing.
  2. Proposition 5.1 (i) (p. 8): v1≤v2v_1\le v_2v1​≤v2​ implies Tπ,R2v1≤Tπ,R2v2T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_1\le T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_2Tπ,R2v1​≤Tπ,R2v2​ and T∗,R2v1≤T∗,R2v2T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_1\le T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_2T∗,R2v1​≤T∗,R2v2​.
  3. Proposition 5.1 (iii) (p. 8):
∥Tπ,R2v1−Tπ,R2v2∥∞≤(1−ϵ∗)∥v1−v2∥∞,∥T∗,R2v1−T∗,R2v2∥∞≤(1−ϵ∗)∥v1−v2∥∞.\|T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_1-T^{\pi,\mathrm R^2}v_2\|_\infty\le(1-\epsilon_*)\|v_1-v_2\|_\infty,\qquad \|T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_1-T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v_2\|_\infty\le(1-\epsilon_*)\|v_1-v_2\|_\infty.∥Tπ,R2v1​−Tπ,R2v2​∥∞​≤(1−ϵ∗​)∥v1​−v2​∥∞​,∥T∗,R2v1​−T∗,R2v2​∥∞​≤(1−ϵ∗​)∥v1​−v2​∥∞​.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 is the R² counterpart of the fundamental theorem of discounted dynamic programming: optimal R² values are achieved by stationary policies obtained by a single greedy step. Together with the contraction of Proposition 5.1 (iii) it justifies the R² modified policy iteration algorithm of the paper, whose greedy step is a projection onto the simplex rather than a robust max–min problem. Combined with the first mission of the series, which identifies the robust value of an sss-rectangular ball-constrained MDP with the optimum of an R²-regularized program, it gives a route to robust planning at the cost of regularized planning.

The results are proved in the paper (App. C), partly by reference to Geist, Scherrer and Pietquin (2019) for the optimality operator. No machine-checked proof of any of them exists; this mission produces the first. Prop. 2.1 is a general fact of convex analysis (Danskin-type smoothness of a conjugate on the simplex) that is reusable for any regularized MDP or entropy-regularized game.

Difficulty

The R² evaluation operator is not affine: the value regularizer −αsPγ∥πs∥ ∥v∥-\alpha^P_s\gamma\|\pi_s\|\,\|v\|−αsP​γ∥πs​∥∥v∥ is concave in vvv and decreases as ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ grows. Monotonicity therefore does not follow from the positivity of P0P_0P0​ as in the standard case; it requires the second bound of Assumption 5.1, which compares the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ variation of ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ with the minimal nonnegative bilinear form of P0(⋅∣s,⋅)P_0(\cdot\mid s,\cdot)P0​(⋅∣s,⋅). Likewise the contraction modulus is not γ\gammaγ but 1−ϵ∗1-\epsilon_*1−ϵ∗​, because the regularizer is ∣S∣\sqrt{|\mathcal S|}∣S∣​-Lipschitz between the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and sup norms. The optimality step of the classical proof uses linearity of TπT^\piTπ when comparing values of policies; here only monotonicity and contraction are available. Uniqueness of the greedy policy rests on strict concavity on the simplex, which holds only when the regularization weight is positive.

Formalization scope

States and actions are finite nonempty types; transitions are arrays P₀ : S → A → S → ℝ with the published predicate IsTransitionKernel; value functions are S → ℝ with the pointwise order. The ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-norm is an explicit l2norm (Mathlib's norm on S → ℝ is the sup norm, used only for ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​). T∗,R2v(s)T^{*,\mathrm R^2}v(s)T∗,R2v(s) is the real supremum over the simplex ΔA\Delta_{\mathcal A}ΔA​ (attained), and the inner minimum of Assumption 5.1 is the real infimum over nonnegative ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-unit vectors; the witnesses ϵs\epsilon_sϵs​ are explicit. Greedy policies are a predicate, never a function, and the R² value functions are not defined by choice: the goal asserts their existence and uniqueness and speaks about the fixed points.

Disclosed deviations from the page. Assumption 5.1 is a hypothesis of Theorem 5.1 (its proof assumes it). The uniqueness clause of Theorem 5.1 additionally assumes αsr>0\alpha^r_s>0αsr​>0 for all sss: with one state, two actions, zero reward and zero radii every policy is greedy and optimal. Proposition 2.1 assumes Ω\OmegaΩ continuous on the simplex, without which the maximum need not be attained, and strong convexity is Mathlib's StrongConvexOn for some modulus (norm-independent in finite dimension). Proposition 5.1 (ii) is false as printed and is not drafted: with one state, one action, P0=1P_0=1P0​=1, r0=0r_0=0r0​=0, γ=1/2\gamma=1/2γ=1/2, αr=0\alpha^r=0αr=0, αP=1/2\alpha^P=1/2αP=1/2, ϵ=1/4\epsilon=1/4ϵ=1/4, one has Tv=v/2−∣v∣/4Tv=v/2-|v|/4Tv=v/2−∣v∣/4, and v1=−1v_1=-1v1​=−1, c=1c=1c=1 give T(v1+c)=0>−1/4=Tv1+γcT(v_1+c)=0>-1/4=Tv_1+\gamma cT(v1​+c)=0>−1/4=Tv1​+γc. Remark 5.1, Algorithm 1 and the ℓp\ell_pℓp​ variant of App. C.1 are out of scope. The inner minimum of Assumption 5.1 is 000 whenever some P0(s′∣s,a)=0P_0(s'\mid s,a)=0P0​(s′∣s,a)=0, forcing αsP=0\alpha^P_s=0αsP​=0; this is the assumption as printed.

A formalization in which ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the sup norm, the inner minimum ranges over all unit vectors (making the assumption unsatisfiable), or the value functions are postulated rather than shown to exist would be trivial or wrong; the drafted statements avoid all three. Contributions welcome: Prop. 2.1 as a general convex-analysis lemma, Banach fixed-point plumbing for S → ℝ with the sup norm, and the strict concavity of p↦⟨p,q⟩−c∥p∥p\mapsto\langle p,q\rangle-c\|p\|p↦⟨p,q⟩−c∥p∥ on the simplex.

Selected references

  • E. Derman, M. Geist, S. Mannor, Twice regularized MDPs and the equivalence between robustness and regularization, NeurIPS 2021. arXiv:2110.06267v1
  • M. Geist, B. Scherrer, O. Pietquin, A theory of regularized Markov decision processes, ICML 2019. arXiv:1901.11275
  • A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices, Operations Research 53(5), 2005. doi:10.1287/opre.1050.0216
  • G. N. Iyengar, Robust dynamic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2), 2005. doi:10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • W. Wiesemann, D. Kuhn, B. Rustem, Robust Markov decision processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 38(1), 2013. doi:10.1287/moor.1120.0566
  • A. Mensch, M. Blondel, Differentiable dynamic programming for structured prediction and attention, ICML 2018. arXiv:1802.03676
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Reversibility and Stochastic Networks VIII: Markov Fields — A Positive Random Field Is Markov iff It Factorizes over the Simplices of the GraphTextbook

Motivation

Many systems consist of a finite number of sites whose states influence one another only locally: fruit trees in an orchard that are diseased or healthy, power sources that are working or broken, individuals holding one of several views. Chapter 9 of F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks (Wiley, 1979) asks which joint distributions such systems have in equilibrium. Earlier chapters of the book produce product-form distributions in which the components are independent; spatial models instead give a limited dependence, and §9.1 makes that notion precise through Markov fields.

The central characterization, that a positive random field is Markov with respect to a graph exactly when it factorizes over the cliques of that graph, is the theorem of Hammersley and Clifford (1971, unpublished manuscript), with published proofs by Besag (1974), Grimmett (1973) and Preston (1973). It underlies Gibbs random fields in statistical mechanics, spatial statistics, image analysis and graphical models. Kelly's §§9.2–9.3 then use it to identify the equilibrium distributions of interacting-particle Markov processes ("spatial processes"), connecting it to reversibility and partial balance.

Setting

There are JJJ sites, the vertices of a finite graph GGG; ∂j\partial j∂j is the set of neighbours of site jjj and G−jG-jG−j the set of sites other than jjj. Site jjj carries an attribute njn_jnj​ from a finite set Nj\mathcal N_jNj​, and a state is n=(n1,…,nJ)\mathbf n=(n_1,\dots,n_J)n=(n1​,…,nJ​) in S=N1×⋯×NJ\mathcal S=\mathcal N_1\times\cdots\times\mathcal N_JS=N1​×⋯×NJ​. For a set of sites HHH, nH\mathbf n_HnH​ is the vector of attributes of the sites in HHH. The operator TjmT_j^mTjm​ changes the attribute of site jjj to mmm.

A random field is a function π\piπ on S\mathcal SS with π(n)>0\pi(\mathbf n)>0π(n)>0 for every state and ∑nπ(n)=1\sum_{\mathbf n}\pi(\mathbf n)=1∑n​π(n)=1. The conditional probability that site jjj has attribute njn_jnj​ given all other sites is

P(nj∣nG−j)=π(n)∑m∈Njπ(Tjmn).(9.1)P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{G-j}) = \frac{\pi(\mathbf n)}{\sum_{m\in\mathcal N_j}\pi(T_j^m\mathbf n)}. \qquad (9.1)P(nj​∣nG−j​)=∑m∈Nj​​π(Tjm​n)π(n)​.(9.1)

π\piπ is a Markov field if P(nj∣nG−j)=P(nj∣n∂j)P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{G-j}) = P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{\partial j})P(nj​∣nG−j​)=P(nj​∣n∂j​) for every jjj and n\mathbf nn (9.2): the attribute of a site depends on the rest of the system only through its neighbours. A simplex is a single site or a set of sites any two of which are neighbours; C\mathcal CC is the set of simplices of GGG.

A spatial process is a Markov process n(t)\mathbf n(t)n(t) on S\mathcal SS with rates qqq such that (i) only one component changes at a time, (ii) q(n,Tjmn)q(\mathbf n,T_j^m\mathbf n)q(n,Tjm​n) depends on n\mathbf nn only through njn_jnj​ and n∂j\mathbf n_{\partial j}n∂j​, and (iii) TjmnT_j^m\mathbf nTjm​n can be reached from n\mathbf nn by transitions that do not alter nG−j\mathbf n_{G-j}nG−j​. The general spatial process of §9.3 has rates

q(n,Tjmn)=λj(nj,m) Φ(n)ΦG−j(nG−j)(9.15)q(\mathbf n,T_j^m\mathbf n)=\lambda_j(n_j,m)\,\frac{\Phi(\mathbf n)}{\Phi_{G-j}(\mathbf n_{G-j})} \qquad (9.15)q(n,Tjm​n)=λj​(nj​,m)ΦG−j​(nG−j​)Φ(n)​(9.15)

for positive functions Φ\PhiΦ, ΦG−j\Phi_{G-j}ΦG−j​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.2 (p. 186)

A random field π\piπ is a Markov field if and only if

π(n)=B∏C∈CϕC(nC),n∈S,(9.5)\pi(\mathbf n) = B\prod_{C\in\mathcal C}\phi_C(\mathbf n_C), \qquad \mathbf n\in\mathcal S, \qquad (9.5)π(n)=BC∈C∏​ϕC​(nC​),n∈S,(9.5)

for some constant BBB and functions ϕC\phi_CϕC​.

Milestones

  • Lemma 9.1 (p. 185): the conditional probabilities P(nj∣nG−j)P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{G-j})P(nj​∣nG−j​), j∈Gj\in Gj∈G, n∈S\mathbf n\in\mathcal Sn∈S, determine the random field uniquely.
  • Theorem 9.3 (p. 189): the equilibrium distribution of a reversible spatial process is a Markov field.
  • Theorem 9.4 (p. 193): for the rates (9.15), with αj>0\alpha_j>0αj​>0 solving αj(n)∑mλj(n,m)=∑mαj(m)λj(m,n)\alpha_j(n)\sum_m\lambda_j(n,m)=\sum_m\alpha_j(m)\lambda_j(m,n)αj​(n)∑m​λj​(n,m)=∑m​αj​(m)λj​(m,n) (9.16), the equilibrium distribution is
π(n)=B ∏j=1Jαj(nj)Φ(n),(9.17)\pi(\mathbf n) = B\,\frac{\prod_{j=1}^J\alpha_j(n_j)}{\Phi(\mathbf n)}, \qquad (9.17)π(n)=BΦ(n)∏j=1J​αj​(nj​)​,(9.17)

and it satisfies the partial balance equations (9.18) site by site.

Significance

Theorem 9.2 turns a statement about conditional laws, which is how local interaction is usually specified, into an explicit parametrization of the joint law by clique potentials. On a lattice with binary attributes it reduces a Markov field to one parameter per site and one per pair of adjacent sites, giving the form π(n)=BαMβR\pi(\mathbf n)=B\alpha^M\beta^Rπ(n)=BαMβR (9.9). Theorem 9.3 shows that local, reversible dynamics produce Markov-field equilibria, and Theorem 9.4 gives a family of non-reversible processes, containing the closed migration process of Chapter 2, whose equilibria are still explicit; its partial balance equations are the bridge to §9.4.

All four results are classical and proved in the book. They are not, to our knowledge, machine-checked in this discrete form. The platform has an open statement of Hammersley–Clifford in a different setting, HighDimStat.GraphicalModels.thm11_8_hammersley_clifford (Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics, Theorem 11.8): a random vector in RV\mathbb R^VRV with a strictly positive Lebesgue density and the global (separation) Markov property. Neither statement implies the other as formalized, so this mission poses Kelly's finite, local version separately. A formal proof here also gives reusable infrastructure: conditional probabilities of a distribution on a finite product space, and factorizations over the cliques of a graph.

Difficulty

The "if" direction is routine. The "only if" direction is where the content lies: the functions ϕC\phi_CϕC​ must be produced from π\piπ alone, and a product over the cliques of GGG must reproduce π\piπ at every state, not only at the states whose nonzero attributes sit on a single clique. The natural first idea, one factor per site read off from the conditional laws, fails as soon as two sites interact. The Markov property must also be brought from its explicit form (9.2), which involves a marginal over the non-neighbours, into a usable statement about π\piπ itself. Strict positivity is essential: without it the "only if" direction is false (Exercise 9.2.2). For Theorem 9.3, condition (iii) cannot be dropped: Exercise 9.2.2 gives a reversible process satisfying (i) and (ii) whose equilibrium is not a Markov field, so any argument that uses only the local form of the rates fails.

Formalization scope

  • Sites form an arbitrary finite type V with decidable equality; attributes at site j form a finite type N j, which may differ between sites. States are dependent functions (j : V) → N j, and TjmnT_j^m\mathbf nTjm​n is Function.update n j m. The graph is a Mathlib SimpleGraph V, so ∂j\partial j∂j is G.neighborSet j.
  • A random field is a real function, positive at every state, with finite sum 111. P(nj∣n∂j)P(n_j\mid\mathbf n_{\partial j})P(nj​∣n∂j​) is the conditional probability computed from π\piπ (a ratio of finite sums), so (9.2) is stated literally.
  • Simplices are the nonempty cliques of the given graph GGG, including single sites. The factorization ranges over exactly these sets; a product over all subsets of sites, or over the cliques of the complete graph, would make the goal trivially true and is ruled out.
  • Theorems 9.3 and 9.4 are read at the level of rates: "equilibrium distribution of a reversible process" is a positive distribution summing to one in detailed balance with qqq (the published KellyStochasticNetworks.DetailedBalance), and "equilibrium distribution" in 9.4 is a positive distribution summing to one satisfying the equilibrium equations (KellyStochasticNetworks.FullBalance), together with its uniqueness under irreducibility. The Markov process itself is not constructed. The state space is always finite, so all sums are finite.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of any item, general lemmas on conditional laws over finite product spaces, and a formal account of the general Hammersley–Clifford theorem that both this mission and the Wainwright statement could use.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, Wiley, 1979, Chapter 9. https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/BOOKS/kelly_book.html
  • J. Besag, Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 36 (1974), 192–236. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1974.tb00999.x
  • G. R. Grimmett, A theorem about random fields, Bull. London Math. Soc. 5 (1973), 81–84. https://doi.org/10.1112/blms/5.1.81
  • C. J. Preston, Generalized Gibbs states and Markov random fields, Adv. Appl. Probab. 5 (1973), 242–261. https://doi.org/10.2307/1426035
  • M. J. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Theorem 11.8. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108627771
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Reversibility and Stochastic Networks V: Optimal Capacity Allocation in a Network of QueuesTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 4 of F. P. Kelly's Reversibility and Stochastic Networks (Wiley, 1979) applies the product-form theory of Chapter 3 to concrete systems. Two of its results have numbered statements, and they answer two practical questions.

The first comes from the design of store-and-forward communication networks (telegraph and packet-switched data networks). Messages queue at channels; the designer chooses each channel's capacity subject to a budget, and wants to minimize the delay messages suffer. Because the equilibrium law at every channel is geometric under several different modelling assumptions (§4.1, pp. 95–96), the mean delay has a closed form, and the budget allocation problem becomes a small convex program with an explicit solution. This square-root capacity assignment goes back to L. Kleinrock's work on communication nets (Communication Nets, McGraw-Hill, 1964) and remains the textbook example of optimal design for a network of queues.

The second comes from compartmental models in biology, birth–illness–death processes and manpower planning (§4.5, pp. 113–115). Individuals enter a system as a Poisson stream and move through it independently. Equilibrium results follow from Chapter 3; Theorem 4.2 describes the transient behaviour exactly, starting from an empty system.

Setting

Capacity allocation (§4.1). A network has J≥1J \ge 1J≥1 channels. Channel jjj receives traffic at average rate aj>0a_j > 0aj​>0 and is given capacity ϕj\phi_jϕj​. In equilibrium the number njn_jnj​ of messages at channel jjj has the geometric law (4.1),

P(nj=n)=(1−ajϕj)(ajϕj)n,n=0,1,2,…,P(n_j = n) = \Big(1 - \frac{a_j}{\phi_j}\Big)\Big(\frac{a_j}{\phi_j}\Big)^n, \qquad n = 0, 1, 2, \dots,P(nj​=n)=(1−ϕj​aj​​)(ϕj​aj​​)n,n=0,1,2,…,

which requires ϕj>aj\phi_j > a_jϕj​>aj​. Its mean is aj/(ϕj−aj)a_j/(\phi_j - a_j)aj​/(ϕj​−aj​). Capacity on channel jjj costs fj>0f_j > 0fj​>0 per unit and the total budget is FFF, giving the cost constraint (4.2)

∑jfjϕj=F.\sum_j f_j\phi_j = F.j∑​fj​ϕj​=F.

The mean number of customers in the network is

N(ϕ)=∑jajϕj−aj,N(\phi) = \sum_j \frac{a_j}{\phi_j - a_j},N(ϕ)=j∑​ϕj​−aj​aj​​,

and the feasible set is the set of ϕ∈RJ\phi \in \mathbb{R}^Jϕ∈RJ with ϕj>aj\phi_j > a_jϕj​>aj​ for every jjj that satisfy (4.2). In Lean these are meanNumberInNetwork a φ and FeasibleCapacities a f F. The proof works with the Lagrangian lagrangian a f F y φ =N(ϕ)+y(∑jfjϕj−F)= N(\phi) + y(\sum_j f_j\phi_j - F)=N(ϕ)+y(∑j​fj​ϕj​−F).

Compartmental model (§4.5). Individuals arrive in a Poisson stream of rate ν>0\nu > 0ν>0 at a system of JJJ compartments that is empty at time 000. Let pj(s)p_j(s)pj​(s) be the probability that an individual is in compartment jjj a time sss after its arrival; pj(s)≥0p_j(s) \ge 0pj​(s)≥0 and ∑jpj(s)≤1\sum_j p_j(s) \le 1∑j​pj​(s)≤1, since individuals may leave. Let nj(t)n_j(t)nj​(t) be the number of individuals in compartment jjj at time t>0t > 0t>0, and

αj(t)=∫0tpj(u) du.\alpha_j(t) = \int_0^t p_j(u)\,du.αj​(t)=∫0t​pj​(u)du.

In Lean the model is the predicate IsCompartmentModel P ν t p M T Loc, the counts are compartmentCount M Loc j, and αj(t)\alpha_j(t)αj​(t) is alpha p j t.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 97)

If J≥1J \ge 1J≥1, aj>0a_j > 0aj​>0, fj>0f_j > 0fj​>0 and F>∑kakfkF > \sum_k a_k f_kF>∑k​ak​fk​, then

ϕj∗=aj+ajfj∑kakfk⋅F−∑kakfkfj\phi^*_j = a_j + \frac{\sqrt{a_j f_j}}{\sum_k \sqrt{a_k f_k}}\cdot\frac{F - \sum_k a_k f_k}{f_j}ϕj∗​=aj​+∑k​ak​fk​​aj​fj​​​⋅fj​F−∑k​ak​fk​​

is feasible and minimizes NNN over the feasible set, and every other feasible ϕ\phiϕ has N(ϕ)>N(ϕ∗)N(\phi) > N(\phi^*)N(ϕ)>N(ϕ∗).

Milestones toward the goal

  1. The mean of the geometric law (4.1) is aj/(ϕj−aj)a_j/(\phi_j - a_j)aj​/(ϕj​−aj​) (p. 97).
  2. For y>0y > 0y>0 the Lagrangian is minimized over {ϕj>aj}\{\phi_j > a_j\}{ϕj​>aj​} by ϕj=aj+aj/(yfj)\phi_j = a_j + \sqrt{a_j/(y f_j)}ϕj​=aj​+aj​/(yfj​)​ (proof of Theorem 4.1).
  3. The choice 1/y=(F−∑kakfk)/∑kakfk1/\sqrt y = (F - \sum_k a_k f_k)/\sum_k\sqrt{a_k f_k}1/y​=(F−∑k​ak​fk​)/∑k​ak​fk​​ makes that minimizer equal to ϕ∗\phi^*ϕ∗ and feasible for (4.2).

Second result: Theorem 4.2 (pp. 114–115)

The proof's generating-function identity, for zj∈[0,1]z_j \in [0,1]zj​∈[0,1],

E(z1n1(t)⋯zJnJ(t))=∏j=1Jexp⁡[−(1−zj)ναj(t)],E\big(z_1^{n_1(t)}\cdots z_J^{n_J(t)}\big) = \prod_{j=1}^J \exp\big[-(1 - z_j)\nu\alpha_j(t)\big],E(z1n1​(t)​⋯zJnJ​(t)​)=j=1∏J​exp[−(1−zj​)ναj​(t)],

and the theorem itself: n1(t),…,nJ(t)n_1(t), \dots, n_J(t)n1​(t),…,nJ​(t) are independent and nj(t)n_j(t)nj​(t) is Poisson with mean ναj(t)\nu\alpha_j(t)ναj​(t).

Significance

Theorem 4.1 is a closed-form design rule. Every channel first receives the capacity aja_jaj​ needed to carry its traffic; the remaining budget is shared in proportion to ajfj\sqrt{a_j f_j}aj​fj​​, not to the traffic aja_jaj​. Sizing capacity in proportion to the load, which is the obvious rule, is therefore not optimal. The same calculation applies to any network whose stations have the geometric law (4.1), for example a manufacturing job shop (p. 97). The mean number in the network and the mean time a customer spends in it are minimized together.

Theorem 4.2 is the exact transient law of a network of infinite-server queues started empty. It holds however complicated the motion of an individual is, provided individuals move independently, and letting t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ it recovers the equilibrium Poisson law of §4.5.

Both results are classical and proved in the book. Neither is formalized on Prove2Me. The platform has the geometric equilibrium law of the M/M/1 queue (KellyStochasticNetworks.mm1_equilibrium) but not its mean, and no result on Poisson thinning or marking by independent random locations. The formal work for Theorem 4.1 is a strict-convexity and Lagrangian-sufficiency argument in RJ\mathbb{R}^JRJ. For Theorem 4.2 it is a Poisson marking theorem in measure-theoretic probability. Both pieces are reusable.

Difficulty

For Theorem 4.1, the book's proof sets the partial derivatives of the Lagrangian to zero. A stationary point is not a global minimizer in general, so the formal proof must show that LLL is (strictly) convex on the open region ϕj>aj\phi_j > a_jϕj​>aj​, and it must use Lagrangian sufficiency, not first-order conditions alone. The region is open and the objective is unbounded near its boundary. Feasibility of ϕ∗\phi^*ϕ∗ needs F>∑kakfkF > \sum_k a_k f_kF>∑k​ak​fk​, which the book leaves implicit.

For Theorem 4.2, the steps of the proof that read "conditional on MMM" have to be carried out with measure-theoretic independence. One step averages a product over MMM independent uniform instants. Another sums the Poisson mixture into an exponential. The last turns a factorized generating function into mutual independence of JJJ counts with Poisson marginals. Mathlib has the Poisson distribution (ProbabilityTheory.poissonMeasure) but no marking or thinning theorem, and no uniqueness theorem for multivariate probability generating functions.

Formalization scope

Channels and compartments are indexed by Fin J; all rates, costs and capacities are real numbers.

Theorem 4.1. The statement carries the book's implicit hypotheses explicitly: J≥1J \ge 1J≥1, aj>0a_j > 0aj​>0, fj>0f_j > 0fj​>0, F>∑kakfkF > \sum_k a_k f_kF>∑k​ak​fk​. Stability ϕj>aj\phi_j > a_jϕj​>aj​ is part of the feasible set. The conclusion is global optimality over the feasible set (IsMinOn) together with feasibility of ϕ∗\phi^*ϕ∗, plus strict optimality against every other feasible point. Uniqueness is a slight strengthening of the book's "the optimal allocation is", and it holds by strict convexity. A statement that ϕ∗\phi^*ϕ∗ satisfies (4.2), or that it is a stationary point of the Lagrangian, is not the theorem: those are one-line computations or the proof method, and the goal is stated as global optimality to rule them out.

Theorem 4.2. The model is pinned down as in the proof on p. 115:

  • the number MMM of arrivals in (0,t)(0,t)(0,t) is Poisson with mean νt\nu tνt;
  • an i.i.d. sequence of (arrival instant, location at time ttt) pairs is independent of MMM, and only its first MMM entries are used;
  • each instant is uniform on (0,t)(0,t)(0,t), and an individual arriving at uuu is in compartment jjj at time ttt with probability pj(t−u)p_j(t-u)pj​(t−u), or has left.

"Individuals move independently" is formalized as this conditional independence. The pjp_jpj​ are measurable sub-probabilities, not assumed to sum to one. The conclusion is mutual independence of the JJJ counts (iIndepFun) together with the Poisson probability mass function of each. Infinite time horizons and the point-process description of the system are out of scope.

Useful contributions: a reusable Lagrangian-sufficiency lemma for separable convex objectives under one linear constraint; a Poisson marking (colouring) theorem for finitely many colours; the multivariate generating-function uniqueness lemma for NJ\mathbb{N}^JNJ-valued random vectors.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, John Wiley & Sons, 1979, Chapter 4 (§4.1, pp. 95–97; §4.5, pp. 113–115).
  • L. Kleinrock, Communication Nets: Stochastic Message Flow and Delay, McGraw-Hill, 1964 (reprinted Dover, 1972).
  • J. F. C. Kingman, Poisson Processes, Oxford University Press, 1993 (colouring and marking theorems).
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Projection-like Retractions on Matrix Manifolds II: The Metric Projection onto a C^k Submanifold Is Locally Unique and C^(k−1), so Projecting a Tangent Step Is a RetractionResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in statistics, signal processing and control are posed over sets of matrices with a constraint that makes them curved: matrices of fixed rank, matrices with orthonormal columns, symmetric matrices with a prescribed spectrum. Algorithms on such sets ("optimization on manifolds") compute a step in the tangent space at the current point, as in a vector space, and then need a rule that brings the point x+ux+ux+u back to the set. A retraction is such a rule; the notion was introduced by Adler, Dedieu, Margulies, Martens and Shub for Newton's method on Riemannian manifolds (IMA J. Numer. Anal. 2002) and is the basic building block of the algorithms in Absil, Mahony and Sepulchre's monograph (Princeton, 2008). Any retraction preserves the local convergence of Newton's method, so the choice among retractions is about cost and convenience.

The most natural candidate is to project x+ux+ux+u back onto the manifold: take the nearest point. Absil and Malick (SIAM J. Optim. 2012; preprint HAL hal-00651608) show in §3.1 that this projective retraction is always a valid retraction of maximal smoothness, and then compute it for fixed-rank, spectral and Stiefel manifolds. The underlying fact, that the nearest-point map onto a CkC^kCk submanifold is locally single-valued and Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1, is classical (the paper cites Lewis and Malick, Math. Oper. Res. 2008); the paper gives a short proof through the inverse function theorem on the normal bundle. This mission formalizes §3.1: that lemma and the resulting retraction.

Setting

Let E\mathcal EE be a Euclidean space, a finite-dimensional real inner product space, of dimension nnn (in the paper's examples, Rn×m\mathbb R^{n\times m}Rn×m with the Frobenius inner product). A set M⊆E\mathcal M\subseteq\mathcal EM⊆E is a submanifold of class CkC^kCk and dimension ddd around xˉ\bar xxˉ if xˉ∈M\bar x\in\mathcal Mxˉ∈M and there are an open neighbourhood UEU_{\mathcal E}UE​ of xˉ\bar xxˉ and a CkC^kCk diffeomorphism φ\varphiφ from UEU_{\mathcal E}UE​ onto an open subset of Rn\mathbb R^nRn with

M∩UE={x∈UE: φd+1(x)=⋯=φn(x)=0}.\mathcal M\cap U_{\mathcal E}=\{x\in U_{\mathcal E}:\ \varphi_{d+1}(x)=\cdots=\varphi_n(x)=0\}.M∩UE​={x∈UE​: φd+1​(x)=⋯=φn​(x)=0}.

The tangent space TM(x)T_{\mathcal M}(x)TM​(x) is the linear subspace of E\mathcal EE spanned by the tangent cone of M\mathcal MM at xxx, and the normal space is NM(x)=TM(x)⊥N_{\mathcal M}(x)=T_{\mathcal M}(x)^\perpNM​(x)=TM​(x)⊥. The tangent bundle and normal bundle are TM={(x,u):x∈M, u∈TM(x)}T\mathcal M=\{(x,u):x\in\mathcal M,\ u\in T_{\mathcal M}(x)\}TM={(x,u):x∈M, u∈TM​(x)} and NM={(x,v):x∈M, v∈NM(x)}N\mathcal M=\{(x,v):x\in\mathcal M,\ v\in N_{\mathcal M}(x)\}NM={(x,v):x∈M, v∈NM​(x)}, subsets of E×E\mathcal E\times\mathcal EE×E. PTM(x)P_{T_{\mathcal M}(x)}PTM​(x)​ denotes the orthogonal projector onto TM(x)T_{\mathcal M}(x)TM​(x).

The projection of x∈Ex\in\mathcal Ex∈E onto M\mathcal MM is the set of nearest points,

PM(x)=argmin⁡{∥x−y∥: y∈M},P_{\mathcal M}(x)=\operatorname{argmin}\{\|x-y\|:\ y\in\mathcal M\},PM​(x)=argmin{∥x−y∥: y∈M},

which may be empty (if M\mathcal MM is not closed) or contain several points (if M\mathcal MM is not convex).

A map RRR from TMT\mathcal MTM to M\mathcal MM is a retraction around xˉ\bar xxˉ (Definition 2.1) if on some neighbourhood U\mathcal UU of (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0) in TMT\mathcal MTM it is of class Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1, satisfies R(x,0)=xR(x,0)=xR(x,0)=x, and DR(x,⋅)(0)=idTM(x)\mathrm DR(x,\cdot)(0)=\mathrm{id}_{T_{\mathcal M}(x)}DR(x,⋅)(0)=idTM​(x)​ for (x,0)∈U(x,0)\in\mathcal U(x,0)∈U.

The formal retraction predicate includes k≥2k\ge2k≥2 and a local submanifold chart at xˉ\bar xxˉ; this ensures that its base point lies on M\mathcal MM.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.2 (projective retraction)

For M\mathcal MM a CkC^kCk submanifold (k≥2k\ge2k≥2) around xˉ\bar xxˉ, the map

R(x,u)=PM(x+u),(x,u)∈TM,R(x,u)=P_{\mathcal M}(x+u),\qquad (x,u)\in T\mathcal M,R(x,u)=PM​(x+u),(x,u)∈TM,

is single-valued near (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0) in TMT\mathcal MTM, and this single value is a retraction around xˉ\bar xxˉ.

Milestones

  1. (3.2) If p∈PM(x)p\in P_{\mathcal M}(x)p∈PM​(x) and M\mathcal MM is a CkC^kCk submanifold around ppp, then p∈Mp\in\mathcal Mp∈M and x−p∈NM(p)x-p\in N_{\mathcal M}(p)x−p∈NM​(p).
  2. (3.3) TNM(xˉ,0)=TM(xˉ)×NM(xˉ)T_{N\mathcal M}(\bar x,0)=T_{\mathcal M}(\bar x)\times N_{\mathcal M}(\bar x)TNM​(xˉ,0)=TM​(xˉ)×NM​(xˉ).
  3. Lemma 3.1 There is δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that on B(xˉ,δ)B(\bar x,\delta)B(xˉ,δ) the projection PMP_{\mathcal M}PM​ is a single point P(x)P(x)P(x), the map PPP is Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1, and
DPM(xˉ)=PTM(xˉ).\mathrm DP_{\mathcal M}(\bar x)=P_{T_{\mathcal M}(\bar x)}.DPM​(xˉ)=PTM​(xˉ)​.

Significance

The projective retraction is the reference retraction on an embedded submanifold: it exists for every CkC^kCk submanifold, it has the maximal smoothness Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1 allowed by the tangent bundle, and it is the one practitioners compute first (truncated SVD for fixed-rank matrices, polar factor for the Stiefel manifold). Section 4 of the paper shows that it is moreover second order and generalizes it to projections along arbitrary smooth fields of transverse subspaces; Lemma 3.1 is the model of that argument. Lemma 3.1 on its own is a basic tool well beyond retractions: local single-valuedness and smoothness of the nearest-point map underlies the local convergence analysis of alternating projections on manifolds and the theory of prox-regular sets.

All statements here are proved results. No machine-checked proof of them is known to exist: Mathlib has the inverse function theorem, tangent cones and orthogonal projections onto subspaces, but no embedded submanifolds of a Euclidean space with their normal bundle and no nearest-point map onto non-convex sets. The mission produces these statements in Lean and invites proofs of them.

Difficulty

The obvious argument writes the nearest point as a critical point of y↦∥x−y∥2y\mapsto\|x-y\|^2y↦∥x−y∥2 on M\mathcal MM and applies the implicit function theorem. Two things break. First, existence: M\mathcal MM is not assumed closed, so a nearest point exists only because M\mathcal MM is locally closed near xˉ\bar xxˉ and points of M\mathcal MM far from xˉ\bar xxˉ are farther from xxx than xˉ\bar xxˉ is. Second, uniqueness: critical points are not unique in general, and the implicit function theorem only describes critical points near a given one. Uniqueness needs a quantitative argument that every nearest point of xxx lies in the region where (p,v)↦p+v(p,v)\mapsto p+v(p,v)↦p+v on the normal bundle is injective. Finally, the normal bundle is itself only a Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1 manifold, whose tangent space at (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0) must be identified before the inverse function theorem applies; this is milestone (3.3).

Formalization scope

The ambient space is any type E with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [InnerProductSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E]; nnn is Module.finrank ℝ E, and k,dk,dk,d are natural numbers with k≥2k\ge2k≥2 stated as a hypothesis (so that k−1k-1k−1 in ℕ is honest). The paper's standing assumption "M\mathcal MM is a submanifold of class CkC^kCk (k≥2k\ge2k≥2) and dimension ddd" enters only as the local hypothesis IsSubmanifoldAt k d M xbar, exactly as Lemma 3.1 and Proposition 3.2 state it ("around xˉ\bar xxˉ"). The chart is an OpenPartialHomeomorph onto EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), CkC^kCk in both directions, with 0-based coordinates. No closedness of M\mathcal MM is assumed, because the paper does not assume it.

The projection is the platform predicate IsMetricProjection M x z (z∈Mz\in\mathcal Mz∈M and ∥x−z∥≤∥x−w∥\|x-z\|\le\|x-w\|∥x−z∥≤∥x−w∥ for all w∈Mw\in\mathcal Mw∈M); single-valuedness is stated as equality of the set of such zzz with a singleton, which asserts existence and uniqueness. A formalization that only states "some selection is Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1", or uses ⊆\subseteq⊆ (satisfied by the empty set), would drop the main claim and is ruled out. The tangent space is the span of Mathlib's tangentConeAt; "class Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1 on a neighbourhood in TMT\mathcal MTM" is ContDiffOn on O∩TMO\cap T\mathcal MO∩TM with OOO open; DR(x,⋅)(0)=id\mathrm DR(x,\cdot)(0)=\mathrm{id}DR(x,⋅)(0)=id is a HasFDerivAt statement on the normed space TM(x)T_{\mathcal M}(x)TM​(x); PTM(xˉ)P_{T_{\mathcal M}(\bar x)}PTM​(xˉ)​ is Submodule.starProjection.

A complete development needs: the tangent space of a slice submanifold equals the image of the chart's derivative, the normal bundle as a Ck−1C^{k-1}Ck−1 manifold, an inverse function theorem on it, and compactness of M∩Bˉ(xˉ,r)\mathcal M\cap\bar B(\bar x,r)M∩Bˉ(xˉ,r) for small rrr. These are reusable for the other missions of this series (fixed-rank, spectral and Stiefel manifolds, and the retractor construction of Section 4), and contributions of such general lemmas as intermediate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • P.-A. Absil and J. Malick, Projection-like retractions on matrix manifolds, SIAM J. Optim. 22(1):135–158, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1137/100802529 (preprint: https://hal.science/hal-00651608, version 2, the basis of the statement indices here)
  • R. L. Adler, J.-P. Dedieu, J. Y. Margulies, M. Martens and M. Shub, Newton's method on Riemannian manifolds and a geometric model for the human spine, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 22:359–390, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1093/imanum/22.3.359
  • P.-A. Absil, R. Mahony and R. Sepulchre, Optimization Algorithms on Matrix Manifolds, Princeton University Press, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830244
  • A. S. Lewis and J. Malick, Alternating projections on manifolds, Math. Oper. Res. 33(1):216–234, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1070.0291
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Reversibility and Stochastic Networks III: Open Networks of Queues with General Customer Routes Have Product-Form EquilibriumTextbook

Motivation

Networks of queues model systems in which jobs visit a sequence of service stations: items in a manufacturing job-shop, packets in a communication network, patients moving between hospital departments. The open migration process of Chapter 2 of F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks (Wiley, 1979), and the job-shop networks of Jackson (Jackson 1963) route a customer leaving a queue at random, independently of where he has been. That rules out the most common situation in practice: an item that has passed machines 1 and 3 must next go to machine 4, while an item that has passed machines 2 and 3 must go to machine 5.

Section 3.1 of the book removes this restriction. Customers are divided into types, a type fixes a deterministic route through the queues, and a stochastic routing rule is recovered by using one type per possible route. Within each queue, the order of service is described by two position-dependent functions, which cover first-come first-served KKK-server queues, last-come first-served, processor sharing and service in random order. Theorem 3.1 states that, for every such network, the equilibrium distribution is a product of explicit single-queue factors. This is the result behind the "Kelly network" and "Kelly-type queue" terminology of later work (Kelly 1975; Baskett, Chandy, Muntz, Palacios 1975).

Setting

There are III customer types and JJJ queues. Customers of type iii enter the system in a Poisson stream of rate ν(i)>0\nu(i)>0ν(i)>0 and visit the queues r(i,1),r(i,2),…,r(i,S(i))r(i,1),r(i,2),\dots,r(i,S(i))r(i,1),r(i,2),…,r(i,S(i)) in that order before leaving; two successive stages of a route are at different queues.

Queue jjj holds its njn_jnj​ customers in positions 1,…,nj1,\dots,n_j1,…,nj​. Each customer needs an exponentially distributed amount of service with unit mean. The queue supplies total service effort at rate ϕj(nj)\phi_j(n_j)ϕj​(nj​), with ϕj(n)>0\phi_j(n)>0ϕj​(n)>0 for n>0n>0n>0; a proportion γj(l,nj)\gamma_j(l,n_j)γj​(l,nj​) goes to the customer in position lll. An arriving customer takes position lll with probability δj(l,nj+1)\delta_j(l,n_j+1)δj​(l,nj​+1). For each n≥1n\ge1n≥1, γj(⋅,n)\gamma_j(\cdot,n)γj​(⋅,n) and δj(⋅,n)\delta_j(\cdot,n)δj​(⋅,n) are probability vectors on {1,…,n}\{1,\dots,n\}{1,…,n}.

The class of the customer in position lll of queue jjj is cj(l)=(tj(l),sj(l))c_j(l)=(t_j(l),s_j(l))cj​(l)=(tj​(l),sj​(l)), his type and the stage of his route. The state of queue jjj is cj=(cj(1),…,cj(nj))\mathbf c_j=(c_j(1),\dots,c_j(n_j))cj​=(cj​(1),…,cj​(nj​)) and the state of the network is C=(c1,…,cJ)\mathbf C=(\mathbf c_1,\dots,\mathbf c_J)C=(c1​,…,cJ​). Its transition rates q(C,D)q(\mathbf C,\mathbf D)q(C,D), displays (3.1)–(3.6), are the sums of the intensities of all events taking C\mathbf CC to D\mathbf DD: a departure from the system (intensity ϕj(nj)γj(l,nj)\phi_j(n_j)\gamma_j(l,n_j)ϕj​(nj​)γj​(l,nj​)), a move from position lll of queue jjj to position mmm of the next queue kkk (intensity ϕj(nj)γj(l,nj)δk(m,nk+1)\phi_j(n_j)\gamma_j(l,n_j)\delta_k(m,n_k+1)ϕj​(nj​)γj​(l,nj​)δk​(m,nk​+1)), and an arrival into position mmm of the first queue kkk of a route (intensity ν(i)δk(m,nk+1)\nu(i)\delta_k(m,n_k+1)ν(i)δk​(m,nk​+1)).

With αj(i,s)=ν(i)\alpha_j(i,s)=\nu(i)αj​(i,s)=ν(i) if r(i,s)=jr(i,s)=jr(i,s)=j and 000 otherwise, set

aj=∑i,sαj(i,s),bj−1=∑n=0∞ajn∏l=1nϕj(l),πj(cj)=bj∏l=1njαj(tj(l),sj(l))ϕj(l).a_j=\sum_{i,s}\alpha_j(i,s),\qquad b_j^{-1}=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\frac{a_j^n}{\prod_{l=1}^{n}\phi_j(l)},\qquad \pi_j(\mathbf c_j)=b_j\prod_{l=1}^{n_j}\frac{\alpha_j(t_j(l),s_j(l))}{\phi_j(l)}.aj​=i,s∑​αj​(i,s),bj−1​=n=0∑∞​∏l=1n​ϕj​(l)ajn​​,πj​(cj​)=bj​l=1∏nj​​ϕj​(l)αj​(tj​(l),sj​(l))​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (p. 61)

If every series defining bj−1b_j^{-1}bj−1​ converges, then

π(C)=∏j=1Jπj(cj)\pi(\mathbf C)=\prod_{j=1}^{J}\pi_j(\mathbf c_j)π(C)=j=1∏J​πj​(cj​)

is positive, sums to 111 over all network states, and satisfies the equilibrium equations

π(C)∑Dq(C,D)=∑Dπ(D) q(D,C)for every C.\pi(\mathbf C)\sum_{\mathbf D}q(\mathbf C,\mathbf D)=\sum_{\mathbf D}\pi(\mathbf D)\,q(\mathbf D,\mathbf C)\quad\text{for every }\mathbf C.π(C)D∑​q(C,D)=D∑​π(D)q(D,C)for every C.

Milestones

  • Theorem 3.2 (p. 62). The time-reversed rates π(D)q(D,C)/π(C)\pi(\mathbf D)q(\mathbf D,\mathbf C)/\pi(\mathbf C)π(D)q(D,C)/π(C) are the rates of the reversed network: routes traversed backwards, γj\gamma_jγj​ and δj\delta_jδj​ interchanged.
  • Corollary 3.4 (p. 63). Queue jjj is independent of the rest of the network, is in state cj\mathbf c_jcj​ with probability πj(cj)\pi_j(\mathbf c_j)πj​(cj​), holds nnn customers with probability bjajn/∏l=1nϕj(l)b_ja_j^n/\prod_{l=1}^n\phi_j(l)bj​ajn​/∏l=1n​ϕj​(l) (3.7), and a customer in position lll is of class (i,s)(i,s)(i,s) with probability αj(i,s)/aj\alpha_j(i,s)/a_jαj​(i,s)/aj​.
  • Corollary 3.5 (p. 63). A type-iii customer reaching queue jjj at stage sss finds it in state cj\mathbf c_jcj​ with probability πj(cj)\pi_j(\mathbf c_j)πj​(cj​).
  • Lemma 3.13 (p. 89). For a multiclass queue with Poisson arrivals of rate ν(c)\nu(c)ν(c) and departure intensities ν(c)ϕc(n)\nu(c)\phi_c(\mathbf n)ν(c)ϕc​(n): reversible ⇔\Leftrightarrow⇔ quasi-reversible ⇔\Leftrightarrow⇔ Φ(n)=ϕc(n)Φ(n−ec)\Phi(\mathbf n)=\phi_c(\mathbf n)\Phi(\mathbf n-\mathbf e_c)Φ(n)=ϕc​(n)Φ(n−ec​) for some positive Φ\PhiΦ (3.26).

Significance

Theorem 3.1 gives the full joint law of a network in which routes carry memory, and its corollaries turn it into usable performance formulas: each queue behaves, in its marginal law and as seen by arriving customers, like an isolated queue fed by a Poisson stream of rate aja_jaj​, even though the actual arrival stream at queue jjj is not Poisson. Mean sojourn times along a route then follow from Little's result. Theorem 3.2 identifies the reversed process as a network of the same kind; it is the source of the departure-stream results (Corollary 3.3) and of the arrival theorem (Corollary 3.5). Lemma 3.13 isolates the condition (3.26) under which state-dependent arrival rates preserve the product form (Theorem 3.14).

The results are classical and proved in the book. None of them has a machine-checked proof: the Prove2Me catalogue holds the rate-level theorems for migration processes (Chapter 2 of Kelly–Yudovina), and open targets for the BCMP and Jackson models, which have different state descriptions. This mission adds a formal model of the position-structured multiclass network itself, with the summation over coinciding transitions that (3.2), (3.4) and (3.6) require, and product-form, reversal and arrival-theorem statements over it.

Difficulty

The obvious first attempt, detailed balance, fails: π(C)q(C,D)\pi(\mathbf C)q(\mathbf C,\mathbf D)π(C)q(C,D) and π(D)q(D,C)\pi(\mathbf D)q(\mathbf D,\mathbf C)π(D)q(D,C) differ in general, because a customer's route cannot be run backwards inside the same network (q(D,C)q(\mathbf D,\mathbf C)q(D,C) is usually 000 when q(C,D)>0q(\mathbf C,\mathbf D)>0q(C,D)>0). The equilibrium equations therefore involve, for each state, all its predecessors at once. The rates are themselves sums over coinciding transitions, so a statement about individual events does not transfer to the rates without accounting for which positions lead to the same successor state. In Lean this brings in insertion into and deletion from position lists, the relabelling of stages, and the normalization of a product over a countable space of JJJ-tuples of lists, reorganized by queue length together with the identity ∑classes at jαj=aj\sum_{\text{classes at } j}\alpha_j=a_j∑classes at j​αj​=aj​.

Formalization scope

  • Finite types and queues. Types are Fin I, queues Fin J; the book allows countably many types with ∑iν(i)<∞\sum_i\nu(i)<\infty∑i​ν(i)<∞. A network state is a function assigning to each queue a list of classes (i,s)(i,s)(i,s) with r(i,s)=jr(i,s)=jr(i,s)=j; the state space is countable and all sums over it are tsum/HasSum.
  • Indexing. Stages and list positions are 000-based in Lean; γj(l,n)\gamma_j(l,n)γj​(l,n) and δj(l,n)\delta_j(l,n)δj​(l,n) keep the book's 111-based position argument.
  • Rate level. Equilibrium means: positive, summing to 111, and satisfying the equilibrium equations (the published KellyStochasticNetworks.FullBalance). The existence of the Markov process, irreducibility and non-explosion are not formalized. "The reversed process" (Theorem 3.2) is read through the reversed rates π(D)q(D,C)/π(C)\pi(\mathbf D)q(\mathbf D,\mathbf C)/\pi(\mathbf C)π(D)q(D,C)/π(C); "the probability he finds" (Corollary 3.5) is read as a ratio of equilibrium arrival fluxes; quasi-reversibility is its rate characterization (3.8), (3.10).
  • Normalizing constants. bjb_jbj​ is defined through a tsum, which Lean sets to 000 for a divergent series; every theorem assumes the series converges, the book's "none of b1,…,bJb_1,\dots,b_Jb1​,…,bJ​ is zero".
  • No trivial instance. The goal holds for arbitrary III, JJJ, ν\nuν, routes, ϕj\phi_jϕj​, γj\gamma_jγj​, δj\delta_jδj​ subject only to the book's constraints; a proof for a single queue, or for fixed γ=δ\gamma=\deltaγ=δ disciplines, does not prove it. In Lemma 3.13 the function Φ\PhiΦ is required to be positive, since Φ≡0\Phi\equiv0Φ≡0 satisfies (3.26) for every queue.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs: list insertion/deletion lemmas for position bookkeeping, sums of products over ∏jList(⋅)\prod_j \mathrm{List}(\cdot)∏j​List(⋅), and a bijection-of-events argument for summed rates. The quasi-reversibility predicate and the reversed-rate apparatus are reusable for the closed networks of §3.4 and the symmetric queues of §3.3. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, in any order.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, John Wiley & Sons, 1979. https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/BOOKS/kelly_book.html
  • F. P. Kelly, Networks of queues with customers of different types, Journal of Applied Probability 12 (1975), 542–554. https://doi.org/10.2307/3212785
  • F. Baskett, K. M. Chandy, R. R. Muntz, F. G. Palacios, Open, closed, and mixed networks of queues with different classes of customers, Journal of the ACM 22 (1975), 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1145/321879.321887
  • J. R. Jackson, Jobshop-like queueing systems, Management Science 10 (1963), 131–142. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.10.1.131
  • F. P. Kelly, E. Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139565363
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Reversibility and Stochastic Networks IV: Symmetric Queues with Gamma-Mixture Service RequirementsTextbook

Why symmetric queues

The classical product-form results for queueing networks (Jackson, Kelly, Baskett–Chandy–Muntz–Palacios) assume exponentially distributed service requirements, because then the state of a queue need not record how much service each customer has received. Real service times are rarely exponential: telephone call lengths, job sizes in time-shared computers and web transfers are far from it. Symmetric queues, introduced in §3.3 of F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks (Wiley, 1979), form the class of single queues for which the stationary distribution of the number of customers, and of their classes, depends on the service requirement distribution only through its mean. This property, insensitivity, is what makes Erlang's loss formula valid for arbitrarily distributed call lengths (Kelly, p. 79), and it is the reason processor-sharing, last-come-first-served preemptive and infinite-server stations may appear with general service in product-form networks.

Timeline. Sevastyanov (1957) proved that Erlang's loss formula holds for arbitrarily distributed call lengths. Kelly (1975, 1976) introduced queues with customers of different types whose effort and arrival-position functions coincide, and showed product form for networks of them with non-exponential service built from exponential stages; Barbour (1976) extended the method of stages; Baskett, Chandy, Muntz and Palacios (1975) gave product form for networks containing processor-sharing, LCFS-preemptive and infinite-server stations with phase-type service. Kelly's 1979 book presents the symmetric queue in the form formalized here.

Setting

A symmetric queue holds customers in positions 1,2,…,n1, 2, \dots, n1,2,…,n, where nnn is the number present. It operates as follows (Kelly, p. 72):

  1. the service requirement of a customer is a random variable whose distribution may depend on the class of the customer;
  2. a total service effort is supplied at rate ϕ(n)\phi(n)ϕ(n), with ϕ(n)>0\phi(n) > 0ϕ(n)>0 for n>0n > 0n>0;
  3. a proportion γ(l,n)\gamma(l, n)γ(l,n) of this effort, ∑l=1nγ(l,n)=1\sum_{l=1}^n \gamma(l, n) = 1∑l=1n​γ(l,n)=1, goes to the customer in position lll; when he leaves, the customers in positions l+1,…,nl+1, \dots, nl+1,…,n move down by one;
  4. an arriving customer moves into position l∈{1,…,n+1}l \in \{1, \dots, n+1\}l∈{1,…,n+1} with probability γ(l,n+1)\gamma(l, n+1)γ(l,n+1) — the same function — and the customers in positions l,…,nl, \dots, nl,…,n move up by one.

Server-sharing (γ(l,n)=1/n\gamma(l, n) = 1/nγ(l,n)=1/n), the stack (γ(n,n)=1\gamma(n, n) = 1γ(n,n)=1, last come first served preemptive), the queue with no waiting room and the infinite-server queue are examples (pp. 73–74).

Customers of class ccc arrive in a Poisson stream of rate ν(c)\nu(c)ν(c). On arrival a class-ccc customer receives a refined class (c,z)(c, z)(c,z) with probability p(c,z)p(c, z)p(c,z), ∑zp(c,z)=1\sum_z p(c, z) = 1∑z​p(c,z)=1, and then needs w(c,z)≥1w(c, z) \ge 1w(c,z)≥1 independent stages of service, each exponentially distributed with mean d(c,z)>0d(c, z) > 0d(c,z)>0. The class-ccc service requirement is therefore a mixture of gamma distributions with mean

a(c)=∑zp(c,z) w(c,z) d(c,z),a(c) = \sum_z p(c, z)\, w(c, z)\, d(c, z),a(c)=z∑​p(c,z)w(c,z)d(c,z),

and the work arriving per unit time is a=∑cν(c)a(c)a = \sum_c \nu(c) a(c)a=∑c​ν(c)a(c). The record of the customer in position lll is c(l)=(c(l),z(l),u(l))\mathbf c(l) = (c(l), z(l), u(l))c(l)=(c(l),z(l),u(l)), u(l)u(l)u(l) the stage in progress, and c=(c(1),…,c(n))\mathbf c = (\mathbf c(1), \dots, \mathbf c(n))c=(c(1),…,c(n)) is a Markov process. Its transitions are: an arrival of class (c,z)(c,z)(c,z) into position lll at stage 111, at rate ν(c)p(c,z)γ(l,n+1)\nu(c)p(c,z)\gamma(l, n+1)ν(c)p(c,z)γ(l,n+1); and, at rate ϕ(n)γ(l,n)/d(c(l),z(l))\phi(n)\gamma(l,n)/d(c(l),z(l))ϕ(n)γ(l,n)/d(c(l),z(l)), completion of the current stage of the customer in position lll, which moves him to the next stage or, after stage w(c(l),z(l))w(c(l), z(l))w(c(l),z(l)), out of the queue. The normalizing constant is

b−1=∑n=0∞an∏l=1nϕ(l).(3.15)b^{-1} = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{a^n}{\prod_{l=1}^n \phi(l)}. \tag{3.15}b−1=n=0∑∞​∏l=1n​ϕ(l)an​.(3.15)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.8

When (3.15) converges, the distribution

π(c)=b∏l=1nν(c(l)) p(c(l),z(l)) d(c(l),z(l))ϕ(l)(3.18)\pi(\mathbf c) = b \prod_{l=1}^n \frac{\nu(c(l))\, p(c(l), z(l))\, d(c(l), z(l))}{\phi(l)} \tag{3.18}π(c)=bl=1∏n​ϕ(l)ν(c(l))p(c(l),z(l))d(c(l),z(l))​(3.18)

is the equilibrium distribution of c\mathbf cc, and under it

P(n customers)=b an∏l=1nϕ(l),P(classes c1,…,cn∣n)=∏l=1nν(cl) a(cl)a,\mathbb P(n \text{ customers}) = \frac{b\,a^n}{\prod_{l=1}^n \phi(l)}, \qquad \mathbb P(\text{classes } c_1, \dots, c_n \mid n) = \prod_{l=1}^n \frac{\nu(c_l)\, a(c_l)}{a},P(n customers)=∏l=1n​ϕ(l)ban​,P(classes c1​,…,cn​∣n)=l=1∏n​aν(cl​)a(cl​)​,

and the queue is quasi-reversible with respect to the classification ccc and to (c,z)(c, z)(c,z): from every state, the rate of arrivals of each class does not depend on the state, both for the process and its time reversal (relations (3.8) and (3.10) of p. 67).

Milestones

  • Eqs. (3.14)–(3.15): the case of one refinement per class, π(c)=b∏lν(c(l))d(c(l))/ϕ(l)\pi(\mathbf c) = b\prod_l \nu(c(l))d(c(l))/\phi(l)π(c)=b∏l​ν(c(l))d(c(l))/ϕ(l) with a=∑cν(c)d(c)w(c)a = \sum_c \nu(c)d(c)w(c)a=∑c​ν(c)d(c)w(c).
  • Eqs. (3.16)–(3.17): in that case, the law of nnn, and given nnn independent positions of class ccc with probability ν(c)d(c)w(c)/a\nu(c)d(c)w(c)/aν(c)d(c)w(c)/a and uniform stage.
  • Eq. (3.18): the equilibrium distribution under gamma-mixture service.
  • Lemma 3.9: mixtures of gamma distributions approximate, at continuity points, the distribution function of any positive random variable.

Significance

Theorem 3.8 gives the stationary law of a symmetric queue in closed form and shows that it depends on the service requirement distributions only through their means a(c)a(c)a(c). Quasi-reversibility (part (iii)) is the property that lets symmetric queues be placed in networks: Kelly's §3.2 shows that a network of quasi-reversible queues has a product-form equilibrium, so Theorem 3.8 is the single-queue input to product-form networks with processor-sharing, LCFS-preemptive and infinite-server stations and class-dependent, non-exponential service. Lemma 3.9 is the approximation step behind the extension to arbitrary service distributions (Theorem 3.10).

These results are classical and proved in the book. To our knowledge none of them is machine-checked; Mathlib has the gamma distribution and distribution functions but no queueing theory. The mission produces a formal model of the symmetric queue as a countable-state Markov process, its equilibrium distribution, the insensitive marginals and the rate characterization of quasi-reversibility, all reusable by the chapter on networks of quasi-reversible queues.

Difficulty

The obvious first attempt, detailed balance, fails: the stage process is not reversible in general, since an intermediate stage completion has no transition back. The equilibrium equations must be verified in full, over a countable state space in which a single state is reached from infinitely many others. The symmetry condition γ≡δ\gamma \equiv \deltaγ≡δ is essential and must enter the argument: without it (for first-come-first-served, say) the distribution (3.18) is false for non-exponential service. Positions shift on every arrival and departure, so the bookkeeping of which list results from which event, including coincidences when neighbouring customers have identical records, is the main formal burden. The marginal computations sum (3.18) over lists of records, where convergence must be tracked, and Lemma 3.9 needs an explicit construction of approximating gamma mixtures.

Formalization scope

  • The state is a List of customer records (class, refined class, stage); list index iii is position l=i+1l = i + 1l=i+1, and γ(l,n)\gamma(l, n)γ(l,n), ϕ(n)\phi(n)ϕ(n) keep the book's 111-based indexing. The state space consists of the lists whose records have ν(c)p(c,z)>0\nu(c)p(c,z) > 0ν(c)p(c,z)>0 and 1≤u≤w(c,z)1 \le u \le w(c, z)1≤u≤w(c,z): records of a refined class arriving at rate zero are unreachable and excluded.
  • Classes C\mathcal CC and refinements Z\mathcal ZZ are arbitrary countable types. All infinite sums are HasSum or tsum with explicit convergence hypotheses: ∑cν(c)<∞\sum_c \nu(c) < \infty∑c​ν(c)<∞ (finite exit rates, the book's standing assumption of §1.1), convergence of a(c)a(c)a(c), of aaa, and of (3.15). "Equilibrium distribution" means positive, summing to one, and satisfying the equilibrium equations with convergent series.
  • The statement is rate level: (3.18) is shown to satisfy the equilibrium equations of the stage process, and quasi-reversibility is its rate characterization (3.8), (3.10). That these describe the stationary process and its time reversal is the book's Chapter 1 and is not reformalized.
  • Trivializing readings ruled out: the goal keeps ppp, www and ddd general (not w≡1w \equiv 1w≡1, which would make the result Section 3.1's exponential case); the arrival position uses the same γ\gammaγ as the service split; and in Lemma 3.9 the approximants must be genuine gamma mixtures with integer shapes, which a point mass is not.
  • Not planned: Theorem 3.10 (arbitrary service distributions; only an outline of proof and a continuous state space the book does not construct) and Theorem 3.11 (reversibility of the number in queue, a non-Markov process).

Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, lemmas about List.insertIdx/List.eraseIdx bookkeeping for queues with positions, and summation over lists of records.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Reversibility and Stochastic Networks, Wiley, Chichester, 1979, §3.3, pp. 72–82. https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/BOOKS/kelly_book.html
  • F. P. Kelly, Networks of queues with customers of different types, Journal of Applied Probability 12 (1975), 542–554. https://www.jstor.org/journal/japplprob
  • F. P. Kelly, Networks of queues, Advances in Applied Probability 8 (1976), 416–432. https://www.jstor.org/journal/advaapplprob
  • A. D. Barbour, Networks of queues and the method of stages, Advances in Applied Probability 8 (1976), 584–591. https://www.jstor.org/journal/advaapplprob
  • B. A. Sevastyanov, An ergodic theorem for Markov processes and its application to telephone systems with refusals, Theory of Probability and its Applications 2 (1957), 104–112.
  • F. Baskett, K. M. Chandy, R. R. Muntz, F. G. Palacios, Open, closed, and mixed networks of queues with different classes of customers, Journal of the ACM 22 (1975), 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1145/321879.321887
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The Best of Both Worlds: Stochastic and Adversarial Bandits: SAO Has Pseudo-Regret O(K log K log²β/Δ) on Stochastic Rewards and Regret Õ(√(nK)) Against Adaptive AdversariesResearch Paper

Motivation

In a multi-armed bandit problem a learner chooses one of KKK actions in each of nnn rounds and observes only the reward of the chosen action. Two models of the rewards have separate theories. In the stochastic model, each arm pays independent draws from a fixed distribution; algorithms such as UCB1 (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi & Fischer 2002) have regret of order ∑ilog⁡(n)/Δi\sum_i \log(n)/\Delta_i∑i​log(n)/Δi​, logarithmic in nnn. In the adversarial model, an adversary chooses the rewards; Exp3 and its variants (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund & Schapire 2002) have regret of order nK\sqrt{nK}nK​, which is optimal there. An algorithm tuned for one model fails in the other: stochastic algorithms can suffer linear regret against an adversary, and adversarial algorithms pay n\sqrt nn​ even when the rewards are i.i.d.

Bubeck and Slivkins (arXiv:1202.4473, COLT 2012) asked whether one algorithm can be near-optimal in both models without knowing which one it faces. They answered yes with the algorithm SAO. This result started the "best of both worlds" line of work on bandits. Later contributions include EXP3++ (Seldin & Slivkins 2014) and Tsallis-INF (Zimmert & Seldin 2021).

Setting

There are K≥2K\ge2K≥2 arms and n≥Kn\ge Kn≥K rounds. On round ttt the algorithm draws an arm ItI_tIt​ from a probability vector pt=(p1,t,…,pK,t)p_t=(p_{1,t},\dots,p_{K,t})pt​=(p1,t​,…,pK,t​) computed from the history it has observed. At the same time a reward vector gt∈[0,1]Kg_t\in[0,1]^Kgt​∈[0,1]K is fixed, and the algorithm observes only gIt,tg_{I_t,t}gIt​,t​.

  • Adversarial model. The vector gtg_tgt​ is chosen by an adaptive adversary: a function of the arms I1,…,It−1I_1,\dots,I_{t-1}I1​,…,It−1​ played earlier, but not of ItI_tIt​. The regret is Rn=max⁡i∑t=1ngi,t−∑t=1ngIt,tR_n=\max_i\sum_{t=1}^n g_{i,t}-\sum_{t=1}^n g_{I_t,t}Rn​=maxi​∑t=1n​gi,t​−∑t=1n​gIt​,t​.
  • Stochastic model. There are distributions ν1,…,νK\nu_1,\dots,\nu_Kν1​,…,νK​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with means μi\mu_iμi​, and all gi,t∼νig_{i,t}\sim\nu_igi,t​∼νi​ are independent. The pseudo-regret is R‾n=∑t=1n(max⁡iμi−μIt)\overline R_n=\sum_{t=1}^n(\max_i\mu_i-\mu_{I_t})Rn​=∑t=1n​(maxi​μi​−μIt​​). The gap of arm iii is Δi=max⁡jμj−μi\Delta_i=\max_j\mu_j-\mu_iΔi​=maxj​μj​−μi​, and the minimal gap is Δ=min⁡i:Δi>0Δi\Delta=\min_{i:\Delta_i>0}\Delta_iΔ=mini:Δi​>0​Δi​.

The analysis uses importance-weighted estimates H~i,t=1t∑s≤tgi,s1{Is=i}/pi,s\widetilde H_{i,t}=\frac1t\sum_{s\le t}g_{i,s}\mathbb 1_{\{I_s=i\}}/p_{i,s}Hi,t​=t1​∑s≤t​gi,s​1{Is​=i}​/pi,s​, the sample means H^i,t\widehat H_{i,t}Hi,t​, the averages Hi,t=1t∑s≤tgi,sH_{i,t}=\frac1t\sum_{s\le t}g_{i,s}Hi,t​=t1​∑s≤t​gi,s​, and the play counts Ti(t)T_i(t)Ti​(t).

SAO (Algorithm 1 of the paper) takes a parameter β>1\beta>1β>1. It keeps a set of active arms, initially all arms, and samples them uniformly at first. On each round it applies a test, (12), that deactivates an arm whose estimate H~i,t\widetilde H_{i,t}Hi,t​ falls far below the best active one. The probability of a deactivated arm then decays as qiτi/tq_i\tau_i/tqi​τi​/t, where τi\tau_iτi​ is the deactivation time and qiq_iqi​ the arm's probability at that moment. Three further tests, (13)–(15), check that the observations stay consistent with stochastic rewards. If any of them fails on round τ0\tau_0τ0​, SAO switches permanently to the adversarial algorithm Exp3.P (Bubeck & Cesa-Bianchi 2012, Fig. 3.1) for the remaining rounds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1, high-probability form

For every δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1) let β=10Kn3δ−1\beta=10Kn^3\delta^{-1}β=10Kn3δ−1. With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, SAO with parameter β\betaβ satisfies, in the stochastic model (whenever some arm has Δi>0\Delta_i>0Δi​>0),

R‾n≤260K(1+log⁡K)log⁡2(β)Δ,\overline R_n\le\frac{260K(1+\log K)\log^2(\beta)}{\Delta},Rn​≤Δ260K(1+logK)log2(β)​,

and, against every adaptive adversary with rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1],

Rn≤60(1+log⁡K)(1+log⁡n)nKlog⁡(β)+5K2log⁡2(β)+200K2log⁡2(β).R_n\le60(1+\log K)(1+\log n)\sqrt{nK\log(\beta)+5K^2\log^2(\beta)}+200K^2\log^2(\beta).Rn​≤60(1+logK)(1+logn)nKlog(β)+5K2log2(β)​+200K2log2(β).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof in order:

  • Freedman's inequality (Theorem 4.3) in the paper's two-sided form, and its variance-adaptive form, Lemma 4.4.
  • The concentration lemmas for SAO's estimates (Lemmas 4.5, 4.6, 4.7) and the Exp3.P phase (Lemma 4.8).
  • The two good events of §4.1, (21)–(25).
  • The deterministic consequences on those events: Exp3.P is never started in the stochastic model; suboptimal arms are deactivated by time 260Klog⁡(β)/Δi2260K\log(\beta)/\Delta_i^2260Klog(β)/Δi2​; ∑iqi≤1+log⁡K\sum_iq_i\le1+\log K∑i​qi​≤1+logK, (27); and the adversarial regret bound of §4.3.
  • The two halves of Theorem 4.1.

Significance

The theorem shows that the stochastic and adversarial regret rates are not in conflict. A single algorithm, with no information about the model, gets O(Klog⁡Klog⁡2(n/δ)/Δ)O(K\log K\log^2(n/\delta)/\Delta)O(KlogKlog2(n/δ)/Δ) pseudo-regret on stochastic rewards and O~(nK)\tilde O(\sqrt{nK})O~(nK​) regret against adaptive adversaries. Each rate is within polylogarithmic factors of optimal for its model. Later algorithms improved the logarithmic factors and removed the explicit switching, but they are compared against this result.

The theorem is proved in the paper. It is not known to have a machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a precise model of an adaptive adversary interacting with a randomized algorithm, martingale concentration with random variance (Lemma 4.4), and an exact statement of SAO including its boundary cases. The pieces are reusable: the interaction model, the estimators, Exp3.P and its high-probability guarantee all apply to other adversarial bandit results.

Difficulty

Neither standard analysis carries over. In the stochastic model, SAO's sampling probabilities are random and depend on the past, and a deactivated arm's probability keeps changing. Hoeffding-type bounds for a fixed sampling scheme therefore do not apply to H~i,t\widetilde H_{i,t}Hi,t​. The variance of the importance-weighted estimate grows like ∑s1/pi,s\sum_s1/p_{i,s}∑s​1/pi,s​, which is controlled only through the algorithm's own schedule (16). This is why Lemma 4.5 has the two-part radius with max⁡(t−τi,0)/(qiτit)\max(t-\tau_i,0)/(q_i\tau_it)max(t−τi​,0)/(qi​τi​t). In the adversarial model, the deterministic argument has to show that whenever the consistency tests pass, the regret accumulated before the switch is already small, for an adversary that adapts to the arms played. A union bound over all quantities, all arms and all times (§4.1) is needed before any deterministic reasoning, so every constant in the event matters.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace BestBothWorlds.SAO.

  • Arms and paths. Arms are Fin K and rounds are 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. An arm path is Fin n → Fin K.
  • Algorithms and adversaries. An algorithm is a deterministic map from the observed history to a probability vector. A deterministic adaptive adversary is a map from the list of earlier arms to a reward vector; randomized adversaries are mixtures of these.
  • Probabilities. For a fixed adversary, the probability of an event is ∑I∈E∏tpIt,t\sum_{I\in E}\prod_tp_{I_t,t}∑I∈E​∏t​pIt​,t​. In the stochastic model this is integrated against the product law of the reward table.
  • Logarithms and constants. Real.log is the natural logarithm. All constants of Theorem 4.1 are explicit, with β=10Kn3δ−1\beta=10Kn^3\delta^{-1}β=10Kn3δ−1.
  • SAO. It is defined exactly as Algorithm 1. Arms are tested in order within a round, and the active set changes during the loop. Test (13) is false when Ti(t)=0T_i(t)=0Ti​(t)=0, and test (14) is false when τi=1\tau_i=1τi​=1.
  • Exp3.P. After the switch, Exp3.P runs from scratch for n−τ0n-\tau_0n−τ0​ rounds. Its parameters are those of Bubeck–Cesa-Bianchi Theorem 3.2 with confidence K/βK/\betaK/β, and γ\gammaγ and βP\beta_{\mathrm P}βP​ are clipped at 111.
  • §4 notation. τ0\tau_0τ0​, τi←min⁡(τi,τ0)\tau_i\leftarrow\min(\tau_i,\tau_0)τi​←min(τi​,τ0​) and qi=pi,min⁡(τi,τ0)q_i=p_{i,\min(\tau_i,\tau_0)}qi​=pi,min(τi​,τ0​)​ are computed from the run, never assumed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. The goal's hypotheses concern only the instance (KKK, nnn, δ\deltaδ, the distributions or the adversary). The algorithm's quantities (τ0\tau_0τ0​, τi\tau_iτi​, qiq_iqi​, the sampling probabilities) are computed by the definition of SAO and are never free variables or hypotheses. The adversarial half covers adaptive adversaries, not only oblivious reward tables.

The expectation form of Theorem 4.1 (O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) bounds with β=n4\beta=n^4β=n4), Theorem 1.1 and the two-armed warm-up of §3 are out of scope. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of the concentration lemmas from Mathlib's martingale library.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck and A. Slivkins, The best of both worlds: stochastic and adversarial bandits, COLT 2012; arXiv:1202.4473v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1202.4473
  • S. Bubeck and N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5(1), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000024
  • D. A. Freedman, On tail probabilities for martingales, Annals of Probability 3(1), 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996452
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi and P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Machine Learning 47, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013689704352
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire, The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem, SIAM Journal on Computing 32(1), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539701398375
  • Y. Seldin and A. Slivkins, One practical algorithm for both stochastic and adversarial bandits, ICML 2014. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v32/seldinb14.html
  • J. Zimmert and Y. Seldin, Tsallis-INF: an optimal algorithm for stochastic and adversarial bandits, JMLR 22, 2021. https://jmlr.org/papers/v22/19-753.html
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Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models 1: The Dual-Balancing Policy Costs at Most Twice the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory control with backorders is one of the basic models of operations research: in each period a manager decides how much to order, orders arrive after a lead time, unmet demand is backlogged at a penalty, and stock left over is charged a holding cost. When demands in different periods are independent, dynamic programming yields an optimal base-stock policy and computing it is tractable. In practice demands are correlated and forecasts evolve over time, for example under the martingale model of forecast evolution (Heath and Jackson, 1994, doi:10.1080/07408179408966604). The dynamic program then has to range over all possible information states, whose number is typically exponential in the input (Zipkin, 2000), so optimal policies are out of reach and the heuristics in use came without performance guarantees.

Levi, Pál, Roundy and Shmoys (Math. Oper. Res. 32(2):284–302, 2007) gave the first policy for this model with a worst-case guarantee that holds for arbitrary correlated, nonstationary demand distributions: the dual-balancing policy costs at most twice the optimum in expectation. The analysis rests on a marginal cost accounting that charges each order, at the time it is placed, all the holding cost its units will ever incur. This mission formalizes that guarantee.

Setting

There are TTT periods t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T and a known lead time L≥0L \ge 0L≥0: an order placed in period ttt arrives in period t+Lt + Lt+L. Period ttt has a per-unit holding cost ht≥0h_t \ge 0ht​≥0 and a per-unit backlogging penalty pt≥0p_t \ge 0pt​≥0. Ordering costs are zero (ct=0c_t = 0ct​=0), which is the standing assumption of the paper's §4. The initial data are the net inventory ni0ni_0ni0​ and the pipeline orders q1−L,…,q0≥0q_{1-L}, \dots, q_0 \ge 0q1−L​,…,q0​≥0.

Demands D1,…,DTD_1, \dots, D_TD1​,…,DT​ are nonnegative random variables on a probability space with a filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​); Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ is the information at the beginning of period ttt, and DtD_tDt​ is Ft+1\mathcal F_{t+1}Ft+1​-measurable. A feasible policy PPP places orders QtP≥0Q^P_t \ge 0QtP​≥0 that are Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable. Write D[s,t]=∑j=stDjD_{[s,t]} = \sum_{j=s}^t D_jD[s,t]​=∑j=st​Dj​ (with Dj=0D_j = 0Dj​=0 for j≤0j \le 0j≤0), Xt=ni0+∑j=1−Lt−1Qj−D[1,t−1]X_t = ni_0 + \sum_{j=1-L}^{t-1} Q_j - D_{[1,t-1]}Xt​=ni0​+∑j=1−Lt−1​Qj​−D[1,t−1]​ for the inventory position before ordering and Yt=Xt+QtY_t = X_t + Q_tYt​=Xt​+Qt​ after ordering.

The marginal holding cost of period ttt is the holding cost that the units ordered in ttt incur until the end of the horizon, and the marginal backlogging cost is the penalty incurred one lead time later:

HtP=∑j=t+LThj (QtP−(D[t,j]−XtP)+)+,ΠtP=pt+L (D[t,t+L]−YtP)+.H^P_t = \sum_{j=t+L}^{T} h_j\,\bigl(Q^P_t - (D_{[t,j]} - X^P_t)^+\bigr)^+, \qquad \Pi^P_t = p_{t+L}\,\bigl(D_{[t,t+L]} - Y^P_t\bigr)^+ .HtP​=j=t+L∑T​hj​(QtP​−(D[t,j]​−XtP​)+)+,ΠtP​=pt+L​(D[t,t+L]​−YtP​)+.

The cost of PPP is C(P)=∑t=1T−L(HtP+ΠtP)\mathcal C(P) = \sum_{t=1}^{T-L}(H^P_t + \Pi^P_t)C(P)=∑t=1T−L​(HtP​+ΠtP​); by Eq. (3) it differs from the total holding and backlogging cost only by a policy-independent nonnegative term.

A dual-balancing policy BBB orders nothing after period T−LT - LT−L, and in each period t≤T−Lt \le T - Lt≤T−L orders the quantity that balances the two conditional expected marginal costs:

E[HtB∣Ft]=E[ΠtB∣Ft]almost surely.E\bigl[H^B_t \mid \mathcal F_t\bigr] = E\bigl[\Pi^B_t \mid \mathcal F_t\bigr] \quad\text{almost surely.}E[HtB​∣Ft​]=E[ΠtB​∣Ft​]almost surely.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

For every dual-balancing policy BBB and every feasible policy PPP,

E[C(B)]  ≤  2 E[C(P)].E[\mathcal C(B)] \;\le\; 2\,E[\mathcal C(P)] .E[C(B)]≤2E[C(P)].

The paper writes P=OPTP = OPTP=OPT; quantifying over all feasible PPP is the same statement whenever an optimum exists and needs no existence assumption.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1. E[C(B)]=2∑t=1T−LE[Zt]E[\mathcal C(B)] = 2\sum_{t=1}^{T-L}E[Z_t]E[C(B)]=2∑t=1T−L​E[Zt​] with Zt=E[HtB∣Ft]Z_t = E[H^B_t \mid \mathcal F_t]Zt​=E[HtB​∣Ft​].
  2. Lemma 4.2. With TH={t:YtB<YtP}\mathcal T_H = \{t : Y^B_t < Y^P_t\}TH​={t:YtB​<YtP​}, ∑t∈THHtB≤∑t=1T−LHtP\sum_{t\in\mathcal T_H} H^B_t \le \sum_{t=1}^{T-L} H^P_t∑t∈TH​​HtB​≤∑t=1T−L​HtP​ on every realization.
  3. Lemma 4.3. With TΠ={t:YtB≥YtP}\mathcal T_\Pi = \{t : Y^B_t \ge Y^P_t\}TΠ​={t:YtB​≥YtP​}, ∑t∈TΠΠtB≤∑t=1T−LΠtP\sum_{t\in\mathcal T_\Pi} \Pi^B_t \le \sum_{t=1}^{T-L} \Pi^P_t∑t∈TΠ​​ΠtB​≤∑t=1T−L​ΠtP​ on every realization.

Two further items are not milestones. Eq. (3) states that, along every realization, the period-by-period holding and backlogging cost equals ∑t=1−L0Πt+H(−∞,0]+∑t=1T−L(Ht+Πt)\sum_{t=1-L}^{0}\Pi_t + H_{(-\infty,0]} + \sum_{t=1}^{T-L}(H_t + \Pi_t)∑t=1−L0​Πt​+H(−∞,0]​+∑t=1T−L​(Ht​+Πt​), which is why the cost of Eq. (4) is the right objective. The other states that a dual-balancing policy exists when hT>0h_T > 0hT​>0 and the demands are integrable, so the goal is not about an empty class.

Significance

The theorem gives a policy that is computable period by period, by a one-dimensional search, with a factor-two guarantee that holds for every joint demand distribution, including correlated, nonstationary and forecast-driven ones, where the optimal policy cannot be computed. The constant is tight: the paper exhibits instances where the ratio tends to two. The second mission of this series treats the stochastic lot-sizing problem of the same paper, which uses the same marginal cost accounting.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it is known. Formalizing it produces a reusable model of the periodic-review backlogging system with lead times and adapted policies, a verified marginal cost identity, and a formal approximation guarantee for a stochastic inventory policy. The pathwise comparison lemmas are stated for arbitrary pairs of order sequences and so apply to other balancing-type policies.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt compares the two policies period by period. That fails: in a given period the dual-balancing policy may hold far more or far less inventory than the comparison policy, and neither the holding nor the backlogging cost of one period is bounded by the comparator's cost in that period. The comparison only works after re-charging holding costs to the period in which the units were ordered, which requires the identity Eq. (3) to be established exactly, including the pipeline units, the initial stock and the lead-time shift. The probabilistic step then needs the random index sets TH\mathcal T_HTH​ and TΠ\mathcal T_\PiTΠ​ to be determined by the information of period ttt, so that conditioning on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ commutes with the indicators; this is where the nonanticipativity of both policies enters. The existence of a balancing quantity needs a measurable selection from conditional laws, and it fails without a positive late holding cost.

Formalization scope

  • Periods are integers (ℤ). Orders and demands are functions ℤ → Ω → ℝ; only periods 1,…,T1, \dots, T1,…,T are read, and the pipeline qtq_tqt​ is substituted for t≤0t \le 0t≤0.
  • Ordering costs are ct=0c_t = 0ct​=0 and there is no discounting, as in the paper's §4; the reduction of §4.6 from general instances is not formalized. The lead time LLL is general.
  • Information is an arbitrary Filtration ℤ to which demands are adapted with a one-period lag; the paper's information vectors are a special case, and randomized policies are covered when their randomness is part of the information.
  • Expected costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so an infinite expected cost is never read as 000.
  • The balancing condition carries integrability of HtBH^B_tHtB​ and ΠtB\Pi^B_tΠtB​, so a conditional expectation of a non-integrable cost (which Mathlib sets to 000) cannot satisfy it vacuously. The existence item rules out an empty policy class.
  • Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 are pathwise and do not use the balancing rule. The comparator totals are the marginal totals of Eq. (4), which is the stronger reading.
  • Eq. (2) prints Xt+LX_{t+L}Xt+L​ and its restatement on p. 292 prints ptp_tpt​; both are typos, and the formalization uses XtX_tXt​ and pt+Lp_{t+L}pt+L​.

A complete development needs finite-sum manipulations for Eq. (3) and Lemma 4.2, conditional expectation (tower property, pulling out bounded Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable factors) for Lemma 4.1 and the goal, and regular conditional distributions with a measurable selection for the existence item. Theorem 4.2 (the randomized policy for integer demands) is outside this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Levi, M. Pál, R. O. Roundy, D. B. Shmoys, Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models, Mathematics of Operations Research 32(2):284–302, 2007. doi:10.1287/moor.1060.0205
  • D. C. Heath, P. L. Jackson, Modeling the evolution of demand forecasts with application to safety stock analysis in production/distribution systems, IIE Transactions 26(3):17–30, 1994. doi:10.1080/07408179408966604
  • P. H. Zipkin, Foundations of Inventory Management, McGraw-Hill, 2000. ISBN 978-0-256-11379-7.
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems I: Pseudo-Regret of (α, ψ)-UCBTextbook

Motivation

The stochastic multi-armed bandit is the basic model of sequential decisions under uncertainty with partial feedback: a forecaster repeatedly picks one of KKK options and observes only the reward of the option it picked. It models clinical trials, ad placement, routing and dynamic pricing, and is the building block of many reinforcement-learning algorithms. The question is how much reward is lost, compared with always playing the best option, through having to learn which option is best.

Chapter 2 of Bubeck and Cesa-Bianchi's monograph (arXiv:1204.5721v2) answers this for upper confidence bound (UCB) strategies.

  • Lai and Robbins (1985) introduced upper confidence bounds and proved that the number of pulls of a suboptimal arm must grow at least logarithmically, with an explicit constant, for consistent strategies (doi:10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8).
  • Agrawal (1995) gave simpler sample-mean-based index policies with logarithmic regret (doi:10.2307/1427934).
  • Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer (2002) gave the finite-time analysis of UCB1 for bounded rewards (doi:10.1023/A:1013689704352).
  • Bubeck and Cesa-Bianchi (2012) present the (α,ψ)(\alpha,\psi)(α,ψ)-UCB family, whose analysis needs only a bound ψ\psiψ on the cumulant generating function of the rewards, and the Lai–Robbins lower bound for Bernoulli rewards.

Setting

There are K≥2K\ge2K≥2 arms. Arm iii has an unknown reward distribution νi\nu_iνi​ with mean μi\mu_iμi​. At each round t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,… the forecaster selects an arm ItI_tIt​ based on the past and receives a reward drawn from νIt\nu_{I_t}νIt​​, independently of the past. Write μ∗=max⁡iμi\mu^*=\max_i\mu_iμ∗=maxi​μi​, Δi=μ∗−μi\Delta_i=\mu^*-\mu_iΔi​=μ∗−μi​ for the gap of arm iii, and Ti(n)T_i(n)Ti​(n) for the number of times arm iii is selected in rounds 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. The pseudo-regret is

R‾n=nμ∗−E∑t=1nμIt=∑i=1KΔi E Ti(n).\overline R_n=n\mu^*-\mathbb E\sum_{t=1}^n\mu_{I_t}=\sum_{i=1}^K\Delta_i\,\mathbb E\,T_i(n).Rn​=nμ∗−Et=1∑n​μIt​​=i=1∑K​Δi​ETi​(n).

Moment condition (2.2). There is a convex ψ:R→R\psi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rψ:R→R with ln⁡E eλ(X−EX)≤ψ(λ)\ln\mathbb E\,e^{\lambda(X-\mathbb EX)}\le\psi(\lambda)lnEeλ(X−EX)≤ψ(λ) and ln⁡E eλ(EX−X)≤ψ(λ)\ln\mathbb E\,e^{\lambda(\mathbb EX-X)}\le\psi(\lambda)lnEeλ(EX−X)≤ψ(λ) for all λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 and every arm's reward XXX. Its Legendre–Fenchel transform is ψ∗(ε)=sup⁡λ∈R(λε−ψ(λ))\psi^*(\varepsilon)=\sup_{\lambda\in\mathbb R}(\lambda\varepsilon-\psi(\lambda))ψ∗(ε)=supλ∈R​(λε−ψ(λ)). For [0,1][0,1][0,1] rewards one may take ψ(λ)=λ2/8\psi(\lambda)=\lambda^2/8ψ(λ)=λ2/8, for which ψ∗(ε)=2ε2\psi^*(\varepsilon)=2\varepsilon^2ψ∗(ε)=2ε2.

(α,ψ)(\alpha,\psi)(α,ψ)-UCB. With μ^i,s\hat\mu_{i,s}μ^​i,s​ the mean of the first sss rewards of arm iii, at round ttt select

It∈argmax⁡i[μ^i,Ti(t−1)+(ψ∗)−1(αln⁡tTi(t−1))].I_t\in\operatorname*{argmax}_{i}\Big[\hat\mu_{i,T_i(t-1)}+(\psi^*)^{-1}\Big(\frac{\alpha\ln t}{T_i(t-1)}\Big)\Big].It​∈iargmax​[μ^​i,Ti​(t−1)​+(ψ∗)−1(Ti​(t−1)αlnt​)].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (p. 11)

If the rewards satisfy (2.2), then (α,ψ)(\alpha,\psi)(α,ψ)-UCB with α>2\alpha>2α>2 satisfies, for every nnn,

R‾n≤∑i:Δi>0Δi(αln⁡nψ∗(Δi/2)+αα−2).\overline R_n\le\sum_{i:\Delta_i>0}\Delta_i\Big(\frac{\alpha\ln n}{\psi^*(\Delta_i/2)}+\frac{\alpha}{\alpha-2}\Big).Rn​≤i:Δi​>0∑​Δi​(ψ∗(Δi​/2)αlnn​+α−2α​).

This is the bound the book's proof establishes. The printed statement has α/(α−2)\alpha/(\alpha-2)α/(α−2) in place of Δi α/(α−2)\Delta_i\,\alpha/(\alpha-2)Δi​α/(α−2); see Formalization scope.

Milestones

  • The decomposition R‾n=∑iΔi E Ti(n)\overline R_n=\sum_i\Delta_i\,\mathbb E\,T_i(n)Rn​=∑i​Δi​ETi​(n) (p. 9).
  • The Cramér–Chernoff bound (2.3): P(μi−μ^i,s>ε)≤e−sψ∗(ε)\mathbb P(\mu_i-\hat\mu_{i,s}>\varepsilon)\le e^{-s\psi^*(\varepsilon)}P(μi​−μ^​i,s​>ε)≤e−sψ∗(ε).
  • The three-event lemma (2.5)–(2.7) from the proof of Theorem 2.1.
  • The bounded-reward bound (2.4): R‾n≤∑i:Δi>0(2αΔiln⁡n+αα−2)\overline R_n\le\sum_{i:\Delta_i>0}\big(\frac{2\alpha}{\Delta_i}\ln n+\frac{\alpha}{\alpha-2}\big)Rn​≤∑i:Δi​>0​(Δi​2α​lnn+α−2α​).
  • The comparison (2.8): 2(p−q)2≤kl(p,q)≤(p−q)2/(q(1−q))2(p-q)^2\le\mathrm{kl}(p,q)\le(p-q)^2/(q(1-q))2(p−q)2≤kl(p,q)≤(p−q)2/(q(1−q)).
  • Theorem 2.2: for every strategy with E Ti(n)=o(na)\mathbb E\,T_i(n)=o(n^a)ETi​(n)=o(na) on all Bernoulli instances, lim inf⁡nR‾n/ln⁡n≥∑i:Δi>0Δi/kl(μi,μ∗)\liminf_n\overline R_n/\ln n\ge\sum_{i:\Delta_i>0}\Delta_i/\mathrm{kl}(\mu_i,\mu^*)liminfn​Rn​/lnn≥∑i:Δi​>0​Δi​/kl(μi​,μ∗).

Significance

Theorem 2.1 says that the cost of learning grows only logarithmically in the horizon, with a constant set by how well each suboptimal arm can be told apart from the best one. Theorem 2.2 shows that, up to constants, this cannot be improved: for Bernoulli rewards any strategy that is good on every instance must pay ln⁡n\ln nlnn per suboptimal arm, with constant Δi/kl(μi,μ∗)\Delta_i/\mathrm{kl}(\mu_i,\mu^*)Δi​/kl(μi​,μ∗). By (2.8) this constant is at least of order 1/Δi1/\Delta_i1/Δi​, matching (2.4). Together they are the template for the analysis of most optimistic algorithms: KL-UCB, linear and contextual UCB, and UCB-style reinforcement learning.

All results of the chapter are classical and proved on paper. This mission makes them machine-checked in a common model. That model has an explicit pseudo-regret, an explicit (generalized) inverse of ψ∗\psi^*ψ∗, an explicit initialization rule for the algorithm, and a randomized-strategy model for the lower bound. Later chapters of the series and later papers on optimistic algorithms can build on it.

Difficulty

The deterministic part of the upper bound is short, so the main difficulty is probabilistic. The sample mean μ^i,Ti(t−1)\hat\mu_{i,T_i(t-1)}μ^​i,Ti​(t−1)​ is taken over a random number of samples that depends on the algorithm's past. A Chernoff bound for a fixed sample size does not apply to it directly. The proof needs a union bound over all possible sample sizes, together with the representation in which the sss-th reward of each arm is a fixed random variable. Summing the resulting tail t1−αt^{1-\alpha}t1−α over rounds is where α>2\alpha>2α>2 enters.

The lower bound needs a change-of-measure argument between two Bernoulli instances, applied to a forecaster that may be randomized and never knows the horizon. Expressing "the forecaster cannot distinguish the instances" requires the law of the whole interaction under two environments.

Formalization scope

Model. Arms are Fin K with 2≤K2\le K2≤K, rounds are 1,2,…1,2,\dots1,2,…, and the natural logarithm is used. Rewards are a stack: Xi,kX_{i,k}Xi,k​ is the reward of the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-st pull of arm iii, all mutually independent, identically distributed per arm. For every strategy this gives the same law of arms and rewards as the book's protocol. μ∗\mu^*μ∗, Δi\Delta_iΔi​ and Ti(t)T_i(t)Ti​(t) are the published definitions of ImprovedLinBandits.UCBDelta.armModel. The pseudo-regret is (2.1), nμ∗−E∑tμItn\mu^*-\mathbb E\sum_t\mu_{I_t}nμ∗−E∑t​μIt​​, not the expected regret. The arms played are measurable random variables, so that every expectation is genuine.

ψ∗\psi^*ψ∗ and its inverse. ψ∗\psi^*ψ∗ takes values in the extended reals. (ψ∗)−1(y)=inf⁡{ε≥0:ψ∗(ε)≥y}(\psi^*)^{-1}(y)=\inf\{\varepsilon\ge0:\psi^*(\varepsilon)\ge y\}(ψ∗)−1(y)=inf{ε≥0:ψ∗(ε)≥y}.

Algorithm. The index is undefined while Ti(t−1)=0T_i(t-1)=0Ti​(t−1)=0. Unplayed arms are therefore played first, so each arm is played once in rounds 1,…,K1,\dots,K1,…,K. Ties are broken arbitrarily.

Corrected misprint. The book prints Theorem 2.1 with constant term α/(α−2)\alpha/(\alpha-2)α/(α−2). Its proof yields Δi α/(α−2)\Delta_i\,\alpha/(\alpha-2)Δi​α/(α−2) (bound on E Ti(n)\mathbb E\,T_i(n)ETi​(n) times Δi\Delta_iΔi​). The printed form is false for Gaussian rewards with large gaps. The goal states the proof's version. (2.4) is correct as printed because Δi≤1\Delta_i\le1Δi​≤1.

Constants. No O(·) appears in the chapter's statements. The constants are the book's: α/(α−2)\alpha/(\alpha-2)α/(α−2) in Theorem 2.1 and (2.4), and the factor 222 in (2.4) and (2.8).

Conventions made explicit.

  1. ψ(λ)≥ψ(0)\psi(\lambda)\ge\psi(0)ψ(λ)≥ψ(0) for λ≤0\lambda\le0λ≤0. Condition (2.2) constrains ψ\psiψ only on λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, while ψ∗\psi^*ψ∗ takes the supremum over all of R\mathbb RR. Without this convention, (2.3) and Theorem 2.1 are false (for example ψ(λ)=cλ+λ2/8\psi(\lambda)=c\lambda+\lambda^2/8ψ(λ)=cλ+λ2/8 with large ccc).
  2. ψ∗\psi^*ψ∗ is finite on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  3. ψ∗(Δi/2)>0\psi^*(\Delta_i/2)>0ψ∗(Δi​/2)>0 for suboptimal arms.
  4. ε≥0\varepsilon\ge0ε≥0 in (2.3).
  5. q∈(0,1)q\in(0,1)q∈(0,1) in (2.8).

Conventions 1–3 hold for every ψ\psiψ the book uses.

Theorem 2.2. The forecaster is a measurable rule from the history and a fresh uniform seed to an arm. It does not depend on the horizon. Consistency is required on every Bernoulli instance, every suboptimal arm and every a>0a>0a>0. A term with μ∗=1\mu^*=1μ∗=1 (kl=+∞\mathrm{kl}=+\inftykl=+∞) is 000, and the lim inf⁡\liminfliminf is taken in the extended reals. The book proves only K=2K=2K=2.

Ruled out. The algorithm cannot see unplayed rewards (its index uses only the sample means of rewards already received). Non-measurable arm choices, which would make the expectations vanish in Lean, are excluded. Consistency cannot be assumed only on the instance of the conclusion.

Needed infrastructure. Cramér–Chernoff bounds for sums of i.i.d. variables, Hoeffding's lemma, the stack representation of bandit interactions, and the divergence decomposition for randomized strategies. All are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5(1), 2012. arXiv:1204.5721v2, doi:10.1561/2200000024
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics 6, 1985. doi:10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • R. Agrawal, Sample mean based index policies with O(log n) regret for the multi-armed bandit problem, Advances in Applied Probability 27, 1995. doi:10.2307/1427934
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Machine Learning 47, 2002. doi:10.1023/A:1013689704352
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations 4: With Retailer Effort, the Supplier Prefers the Wholesale-Price Contract Exactly When τ > 1/√2Research Paper

Motivation

A revenue-sharing contract {ϕ,w}\{\phi, w\}{ϕ,w} lets a supplier charge a retailer a wholesale price www per unit and, in addition, collect the share 1−ϕ1 - \phi1−ϕ of the retailer's revenue. The video-rental industry adopted such contracts at scale in the late 1990s, and Cachon and Lariviere showed that in a broad class of models they coordinate the supply chain: the retailer's privately optimal decisions coincide with those that maximize total channel profit, and the profit can be split arbitrarily between the firms (missions 1 and 2 of this series).

The same authors also studied where revenue sharing breaks down. The most practically relevant limitation is retailer effort: shelf space, service, store cleanliness and promotion raise demand, cost the retailer money, and cannot be written into a contract. Once the retailer gives away part of its revenue, it earns only a share of the return on its effort while still paying the whole cost. This mission formalizes Section 4.2 of the authors' working paper, which shows that revenue sharing then cannot coordinate the channel while leaving the supplier any profit, and, in an explicit linear-demand example, determines exactly when the supplier is better off with the plain wholesale-price contract.

The source is the June 2000 working paper (Cachon and Lariviere, Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations), whose results are displayed claims inside numbered sections rather than numbered theorems; the milestones cite section, printed page and display. The published version appeared in Management Science 51(1), 2005.

Setting

General model (Sec. 4.2.1). A supplier produces at unit cost c>0c > 0c>0. The retailer chooses an order quantity q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 and an effort level e≥0e \ge 0e≥0 after observing the contract {ϕ,w}\{\phi, w\}{ϕ,w}. Expected revenue R(q,e)R(q, e)R(q,e) is continuous, differentiable, strictly increasing in eee and concave in qqq; effort costs the retailer g(e)g(e)g(e), where ggg is continuous, increasing, differentiable and convex with g(0)=0g(0) = 0g(0)=0. The profits of the integrated channel, the retailer and the supplier are

Π(q,e)=R(q,e)−g(e)−qc,πr(q,e)=ϕR(q,e)−g(e)−qw,(1−ϕ)R(q,e)+q(w−c).\Pi(q, e) = R(q, e) - g(e) - qc,\qquad \pi_r(q, e) = \phi R(q, e) - g(e) - qw,\qquad (1-\phi)R(q, e) + q(w - c).Π(q,e)=R(q,e)−g(e)−qc,πr​(q,e)=ϕR(q,e)−g(e)−qw,(1−ϕ)R(q,e)+q(w−c).

The integrated solution (qI,eI)(q_I, e_I)(qI​,eI​) maximizes Π\PiΠ over q,e≥0q, e \ge 0q,e≥0.

Linear example (Sec. 4.2.2). Inverse demand is P(q,e)=1−q+2τeP(q, e) = 1 - q + 2\tau eP(q,e)=1−q+2τe with an effort-impact parameter τ≥0\tau \ge 0τ≥0, revenue is R(q,e)=qP(q,e)R(q, e) = qP(q, e)R(q,e)=qP(q,e) and effort costs g(e)=e2g(e) = e^2g(e)=e2. For a share ϕ\phiϕ the supplier's profit when the retailer responds optimally to {ϕ,w}\{\phi, w\}{ϕ,w} is πs(w,ϕ)\pi_s(w, \phi)πs​(w,ϕ), and the supplier's optimal profit is

V(ϕ)=sup⁡w≥0πs(w,ϕ).V(\phi) = \sup_{w \ge 0} \pi_s(w, \phi).V(ϕ)=w≥0sup​πs​(w,ϕ).

The share ϕ=1\phi = 1ϕ=1 is the wholesale-price contract.

Formalization targets

Goal: the supplier's choice of contract

For 0≤τ<10 \le \tau < 10≤τ<1, 0<c<10 < c < 10<c<1 and every ϕ∈(0,1]\phi \in (0, 1]ϕ∈(0,1], the supremum defining V(ϕ)V(\phi)V(ϕ) is attained at the price w(ϕ)=ϕ((1−τ2)ϕ+c(1−ϕτ2))/(1+ϕ(1−2τ2))w(\phi) = \phi\big((1-\tau^2)\phi + c(1-\phi\tau^2)\big)/\big(1 + \phi(1-2\tau^2)\big)w(ϕ)=ϕ((1−τ2)ϕ+c(1−ϕτ2))/(1+ϕ(1−2τ2)), and

V(ϕ)=(1−c)24(1+ϕ(1−2τ2)).V(\phi) = \frac{(1 - c)^2}{4\big(1 + \phi(1 - 2\tau^2)\big)} .V(ϕ)=4(1+ϕ(1−2τ2))(1−c)2​.

Consequently VVV is strictly increasing on (0,1](0, 1](0,1] if τ>1/2\tau > 1/\sqrt 2τ>1/2​ (the wholesale-price contract is the supplier's unique best share), constant if τ=1/2\tau = 1/\sqrt 2τ=1/2​, and strictly decreasing if τ<1/2\tau < 1/\sqrt 2τ<1/2​, with V(ϕ)→(1−c)2/4V(\phi) \to (1-c)^2/4V(ϕ)→(1−c)2/4 as ϕ→0+\phi \to 0^+ϕ→0+.

Milestones

  1. Sec. 4.2.1, p. 22: with w=ϕcw = \phi cw=ϕc and ϕ<1\phi < 1ϕ<1 the retailer's optimal effort at qIq_IqI​ is below eIe_IeI​.
  2. Sec. 4.2.1, p. 22: if (qI,eI)(q_I, e_I)(qI​,eI​) is optimal for the retailer, then ϕ=1\phi = 1ϕ=1, w=cw = cw=c, and the supplier earns nothing.
  3. Sec. 4.2.2, p. 23: the retailer's unique optimal effort at quantity qqq is e(q)=ϕτqe(q) = \phi\tau qe(q)=ϕτq.
  4. Sec. 4.2.2, pp. 23–24: the retailer's reduced profit q[ϕ−q(ϕ−ϕ2τ2)−w]q[\phi - q(\phi - \phi^2\tau^2) - w]q[ϕ−q(ϕ−ϕ2τ2)−w], its unique joint optimum (q(w,ϕ),e(q(w,ϕ)))\big(q(w,\phi), e(q(w,\phi))\big)(q(w,ϕ),e(q(w,ϕ))) with q(w,ϕ)=(ϕ−w)/(2(ϕ−ϕ2τ2))q(w, \phi) = (\phi - w)/(2(\phi - \phi^2\tau^2))q(w,ϕ)=(ϕ−w)/(2(ϕ−ϕ2τ2)) for w<ϕw < \phiw<ϕ and 000 otherwise, and the optimal profit (ϕ−w)2/(4(ϕ−ϕ2τ2))(\phi - w)^2/(4(\phi - \phi^2\tau^2))(ϕ−w)2/(4(ϕ−ϕ2τ2)).
  5. Sec. 4.2.2, p. 24: the integrated retail price pI=(1+c(1−2τ2))/(2(1−τ2))p_I = (1 + c(1-2\tau^2))/(2(1-\tau^2))pI​=(1+c(1−2τ2))/(2(1−τ2)), increasing in ccc if τ<1/2\tau < 1/\sqrt 2τ<1/2​ and decreasing if τ>1/2\tau > 1/\sqrt 2τ>1/2​.
  6. Sec. 4.2.2, p. 24: πs(⋅,ϕ)\pi_s(\cdot, \phi)πs​(⋅,ϕ) is strictly concave where the retailer orders, and w(ϕ)w(\phi)w(ϕ) is its unique maximizer over w≥0w \ge 0w≥0.
  7. Sec. 4.2.2, p. 24: πs(w(ϕ),ϕ)=(1−c)2/(4(1+ϕ(1−2τ2)))\pi_s(w(\phi), \phi) = (1-c)^2/\big(4(1 + \phi(1-2\tau^2))\big)πs​(w(ϕ),ϕ)=(1−c)2/(4(1+ϕ(1−2τ2))).

Significance

The general result (milestones 1–2) is a clean impossibility statement: with non-contractible effort, the only contract in the revenue-sharing family that coordinates the channel is the wholesale-price contract at marginal cost, which leaves the supplier zero profit. It marks the boundary of the coordination results of the earlier sections, and contrasts with the price-dependent newsvendor, where revenue sharing does coordinate price and quantity because the cost of expanding demand is captured in the revenue function and shared by both firms.

The example turns the impossibility into a design rule. Because coordination is out of reach, the supplier compares contracts by her own profit, and the threshold τ=1/2\tau = 1/\sqrt 2τ=1/2​ separates two regimes: when effort matters a lot she should leave the retailer all revenue and charge only a wholesale price ("a smaller share of a larger pie"); when it matters little she should take as much revenue as possible. The same threshold governs the counterintuitive comparative static that the integrated channel's retail price falls as production cost rises.

All results are proved on paper in the source. None has a machine-checked proof; this mission produces the first. The example is a fully explicit two-stage optimization problem, so the formal development also yields a verified computation of a Stackelberg equilibrium with moral hazard that other contract-design missions can reuse.

Difficulty

The individual calculations are elementary, and the work lies in getting the optimization statements right. The page solves the retailer's problem sequentially (effort first, then quantity) and writes the supplier's objective by substituting closed forms. A faithful proof must instead show that these closed forms are global optima over the constrained domains: the retailer optimizes jointly over the quadrant q,e≥0q, e \ge 0q,e≥0, the corner q=0q = 0q=0 is optimal whenever w≥ϕw \ge \phiw≥ϕ, and the supplier's objective is a quadratic on w≤ϕw \le \phiw≤ϕ glued to the zero function on w≥ϕw \ge \phiw≥ϕ, which is not concave on all of w≥0w \ge 0w≥0. The first-order-condition argument of the general model similarly needs an interior integrated optimum and a strictly positive marginal effect of effort, which "strictly increasing in eee" alone does not provide.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The general model is a structure RevShareCoord.Effort.Model carrying RRR, its partial derivatives, ggg, g′g'g′ and ccc; derivatives are one-sided within [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), and joint differentiability of RRR is replaced by its partial derivatives and joint continuity. The example lives in RevShareCoord.Effort.Linear. "Optimal" always means a maximizer over the whole admissible set (q,e≥0q, e \ge 0q,e≥0 for the retailer, w≥0w \ge 0w≥0 for the supplier), and the supplier's value V(ϕ)V(\phi)V(ϕ) is defined as the supremum of her attainable profits, not by the printed formula.

Deviations from the page, each disclosed in the item's Formalization Note:

  • τ<1\tau < 1τ<1 instead of τ∈[0,1]\tau \in [0, 1]τ∈[0,1]: at τ=1\tau = 1τ=1 the integrated problem is unbounded and pIp_IpI​ divides by zero. The page's "jointly concave in qqq and τ\tauτ" is read as qqq and eee.
  • 0<c<10 < c < 10<c<1: c>0c > 0c>0 is the standing assumption of Sec. 1, and c<1c < 1c<1 is needed for a positive integrated quantity.
  • ϕ∈(0,1]\phi \in (0, 1]ϕ∈(0,1] in the example: at ϕ=0\phi = 0ϕ=0 the retailer keeps no revenue and q(w,ϕ)q(w, \phi)q(w,ϕ) divides by zero. The page's optimal share "ϕ=0\phi = 0ϕ=0" for τ<1/2\tau < 1/\sqrt 2τ<1/2​ is stated as strict decrease on (0,1](0, 1](0,1] with the limit at 0+0^+0+.
  • The printed second derivative −(1−ϕ(1−2τ2))/(2ϕ2(1−ϕτ2)2)-\big(1 - \phi(1-2\tau^2)\big)/\big(2\phi^2(1-\phi\tau^2)^2\big)−(1−ϕ(1−2τ2))/(2ϕ2(1−ϕτ2)2) has a sign slip in the numerator; the Lean states −(1+ϕ(1−2τ2))/(2ϕ2(1−ϕτ2)2)-\big(1 + \phi(1-2\tau^2)\big)/\big(2\phi^2(1-\phi\tau^2)^2\big)−(1+ϕ(1−2τ2))/(2ϕ2(1−ϕτ2)2).
  • "Otherwise decreasing" fails at τ=1/2\tau = 1/\sqrt 2τ=1/2​, where VVV and pIp_IpI​ are constant; the trichotomy is stated.
  • In the general model, the integrated optimum is interior, ∂R/∂e>0\partial R/\partial e > 0∂R/∂e>0 at it, and, for milestone 1, πr(qI,⋅)\pi_r(q_I, \cdot)πr​(qI​,⋅) is strictly concave in eee (the page asserts this but it does not follow from the assumptions).

Plugging the printed w(ϕ)w(\phi)w(ϕ) into πs\pi_sπs​ and comparing across ϕ\phiϕ would turn the dichotomy into a statement about an arbitrary price schedule; the goal instead asserts that w(ϕ)w(\phi)w(ϕ) attains the supremum over all w≥0w \ge 0w≥0, with the retailer best-responding jointly in (q,e)(q, e)(q,e).

No external library beyond Mathlib's real analysis and convexity is needed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, reusable lemmas on maximizing strictly concave quadratics over orthants, and a generalization of milestone 2 to non-interior optima.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, M. A. Lariviere, Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations, working paper, June 2000. Published version: Management Science 51(1):30–44, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0215
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • S. Desiraju, S. Moorthy, Managing a Distribution Channel under Asymmetric Information with Performance Requirements, Management Science 43(12), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.12.1628
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Linear Least-Squares Algorithms for Temporal Difference Learning I: Probability-One Convergence of Trial-Based LS TD on Absorbing Markov ChainsResearch Paper

Motivation

Temporal-difference learning estimates the value of a policy from observed state transitions and rewards. In a finite Markov decision process, fixing a policy produces a Markov chain, so policy evaluation becomes the task of estimating the expected return from each state. Bradtke and Barto's 1996 paper introduced a least-squares temporal-difference method, LS TD, that uses each observed transition in a linear system instead of selecting a learning-rate schedule. Their Theorem 1 states probability-one convergence for trials that end at absorbing states under explicit conditions on state access, rewards, and features. This mission formalizes that result and the statements the authors use to reach it. Bradtke and Barto, 1996.

The result matters for episodic policy evaluation: a learner may collect many short trajectories, each begun from a prescribed start distribution, and update the same estimate as data accumulate. The theorem identifies conditions under which the limit is the true value parameter even when the discount factor is one. That endpoint is useful for undiscounted tasks ending in an absorbing goal state; it also makes the convergence claim more delicate than the standard discounted case. The paper proves the result mathematically. The Lean statements in this mission are targets for machine-checked proofs, not claims of proofs already present in Mathlib. Bradtke and Barto, Theorem 1, pp. 43–44.

Setting

Let XXX be a finite, nonempty set of states. After a policy is fixed, P(x,y)P(x,y)P(x,y) is the probability of a transition from xxx to yyy, so each row of PPP is nonnegative and sums to one. A transition earns a deterministic real reward R(x,y)R(x,y)R(x,y). A state is absorbing when P(x,x)=1P(x,x)=1P(x,x)=1; let T\mathcal TT be the absorbing states and N=X∖T\mathcal N=X\setminus\mathcal TN=X∖T the others. The chain is absorbing when some absorbing state can be reached with positive probability from every state. A start distribution SSS gives the state at the beginning of each trial. No state is inaccessible when every state can be reached from the positive support of SSS.

For a discount γ\gammaγ, the expected immediate reward is rˉ(x)=∑yP(x,y)R(x,y)\bar r(x)=\sum_yP(x,y)R(x,y)rˉ(x)=∑y​P(x,y)R(x,y). The true value function is defined by the expected return

V(x)=∑k=0∞γk(Pkrˉ)(x).V(x)=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\gamma^k(P^k\bar r)(x).V(x)=k=0∑∞​γk(Pkrˉ)(x).

A feature vector ϕx∈Rm\phi_x\in\mathbb R^mϕx​∈Rm represents state xxx. The matrix Φ\PhiΦ has row xxx equal to ϕx⊤\phi_x^\topϕx⊤​. The target parameter θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is a vector for which V(x)=ϕx⊤θ∗V(x)=\phi_x^\top\theta^*V(x)=ϕx⊤​θ∗ at every state; it is something the theorem must establish, not an input chosen by a formula. Equation (11) forms an LS TD estimate θn\theta_nθn​ from the observed feature differences and rewards. Bradtke and Barto, §2, Table 1, Eq. (11).

Figure 2 collects trials. Each starts from SSS, follows PPP while the current state is non-absorbing, and ends upon entry into T\mathcal TT. The next trial starts with a fresh draw from SSS. The estimator includes transitions taken within trials; a draw that starts the next trial is not an observed transition for Eq. (11). Bradtke and Barto, Figure 2, p. 42.

Formalization targets

Theorem 1: convergence of trial-based LS TD

If every state is accessible from SSS, rewards between absorbing states vanish, the feature vectors on N\mathcal NN are linearly independent, features on T\mathcal TT are zero, m=∣N∣m=|\mathcal N|m=∣N∣, and 0≤γ≤10\le\gamma\le10≤γ≤1, then the expected-return series converges and there is a parameter θ∗\theta^*θ∗ satisfying

V(x)=ϕx⊤θ∗(x∈X),θn⟶θ∗with probability one.V(x)=\phi_x^\top\theta^*\quad(x\in X),\qquad \theta_n\longrightarrow\theta^*\quad\text{with probability one}.V(x)=ϕx⊤​θ∗(x∈X),θn​⟶θ∗with probability one.

The theorem keeps the paper's endpoint γ=1\gamma=1γ=1. The return series' convergence is explicit because a real infinite sum in Lean has a default value when it diverges. Bradtke and Barto, Theorem 1, p. 43.

Supporting targets

The milestone list follows the statements used in the paper: almost-sure visits and departure proportions for the trials; invertibility of the non-absorbing block of I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP; invertibility of Φ⊤Π(I−γP)Φ\Phi^\top\Pi(I-\gamma P)\PhiΦ⊤Π(I−γP)Φ for positive non-absorbing weights; Lemma 5's probability-one limit [Φ⊤Π(I−γP)Φ]−1Φ⊤Πrˉ[\Phi^\top\Pi(I-\gamma P)\Phi]^{-1}\Phi^\top\Pi\bar r[Φ⊤Π(I−γP)Φ]−1Φ⊤Πrˉ; and Eq. (12), rˉ=(I−γP)Φθ∗\bar r=(I-\gamma P)\Phi\theta^*rˉ=(I−γP)Φθ∗, together with finiteness of the true parameter. Here Π=diag⁡(π)\Pi=\operatorname{diag}(\pi)Π=diag(π). Bradtke and Barto, Lemma 5, p. 43; Proof of Theorem 1, p. 44.

Significance

Theorem 1 identifies the target of the asymptotic LS TD estimate: the value function defined from rewards, rather than merely a vector satisfying a sampled linear system. It covers an undiscounted absorbing chain, where a general fixed-point equation for values would fail to determine the values of absorbing states. The zero-reward and zero-feature conditions determine that boundary correctly. The result also explains the dimension condition: one independent feature vector for each non-absorbing state permits exact representation of the return. Bradtke and Barto, pp. 43–44.

A complete formal development would connect finite-state stochastic-process laws, visit frequencies, matrix limits, and the return-defined value function in one checked statement. The reusable parts include a finite row-stochastic chain model, a path-law description of restarts, a filtered least-squares estimator, and results about transient blocks of stochastic matrices. The paper's mathematical proof exists; this mission asks for formal proofs of its Lean targets. It also leaves room for alternative proofs and sharper, separately stated variants without weakening Theorem 1.

Difficulty

Ordinary matrix convergence cannot be applied until the observed transition frequencies are known to converge and the limiting matrix is invertible. A trial has random length, and the process resets after absorption, so a sequence indexed by all restart-process steps does not have the same raw state proportions as a count indexed by trials. The proof must account for both clocks while retaining the in-trial data of Eq. (11). At γ=1\gamma=1γ=1, a direct geometric-series argument for the value function is unavailable; its finiteness depends on absorption and the reward convention. The matrix I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP itself is singular at the undiscounted endpoint because of absorbing states, while its non-absorbing block is the relevant invertible matrix. Bradtke and Barto, Proof of Theorem 1, p. 44.

Formalization scope

The Lean state type is finite and nonempty. The paper evaluates one fixed policy, so PPP is a real row-stochastic matrix and RRR is a deterministic real reward on transitions; there is no action type in the formal statement. Absorbing states are exactly those with P(x,x)=1P(x,x)=1P(x,x)=1, and “absorbing chain” means that an absorbing state is reachable from every state. The paper does not define “inaccessible”; the formalization reads it as unreachable from the positive support of SSS. The state space carries the discrete measurable structure. Theorem 1's restart process and Lemma 5's ordinary Markov chain are each constrained by their finite-dimensional cylinder probabilities, not by assumed transition frequencies.

The feature space is Rm\mathbb R^mRm, and mmm equals the cardinality of the subtype N\mathcal NN. LS TD uses only departures from N\mathcal NN. Index nnn counts restart-process steps, so the estimate repeats at a restart draw; the paper counts in-trial transitions. These indices have the same asymptotic estimate when transitions continue. The 1/t1/t1/t factors in Eq. (11) cancel, and early singular inverses take Lean's total-inverse default. The value function is the return series, and the goal explicitly asserts its summability. The true parameter is existential, never defined by the formula whose convergence the theorem is meant to prove.

The paper defines πx\pi_xπx​ for absorbing chains as expected departures from xxx per trial. The Theorem 1 visit-frequency milestone normalizes by restart-process steps, which rescales all weights by one positive common factor; Lemma 5's matrix expression is invariant under that rescaling. Lemma 5 itself counts every ordinary-chain transition and carries the paper's “any Markov chain” scope. The milestone on invertibility allows arbitrary weights at absorbing states because their feature rows are zero. These conventions are recorded with each Lean item. Contributions toward the path-law frequency theorem, transient-matrix invertibility, return-series summability, and the matrix limit are all within scope. A vacuous path law or a value function defined from the desired linear equation would not establish the stated goal.

Selected references

  • S. J. Bradtke and A. G. Barto, Linear Least-Squares Algorithms for Temporal Difference Learning, Machine Learning 22, 33–57 (1996). DOI: 10.1023/A:1018056104778.
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Dimensioning Large Call Centers IV: Asymptotically Optimal Staffing under a Waiting-Cost ConstraintResearch Paper

Motivation

A call center has to decide how many agents to staff. In practice the decision is often posed as a service-level constraint rather than a cost trade-off: use the fewest agents for which the expected waiting cost, or the fraction of customers who wait, stays below a target. Borst, Mandelbaum and Reiman (CWI Report PNA-R0015, 2000; journal version in Operations Research 52(1), 2004, doi:10.1287/opre.1030.0081) treat this constraint problem in Section 8 of their paper, alongside the cost-minimization problem of Sections 5–7, and show that a simple square-root staffing rule solves it asymptotically as the arrival rate grows.

The rule matters because it is what practitioners use. Under the classical Erlang-C model, the exact optimum requires evaluating the Erlang-C formula over many staffing levels. The asymptotic rule replaces this with a single equation in the Halfin–Whitt function PPP: when the target is a delay probability ε\varepsilonε (Example 8.5 of the paper), it reduces to staffing λ/μ+P−1(ε)λ/μ\lambda/\mu + P^{-1}(\varepsilon)\sqrt{\lambda/\mu}λ/μ+P−1(ε)λ/μ​ servers.

Timeline. Erlang's formula for the M/M/N delay probability dates from 1917. Halfin and Whitt (Operations Research 29, 1981) identified the limit P(x)P(x)P(x) of the delay probability under square-root staffing N=λ/μ+xλ/μN = \lambda/\mu + x\sqrt{\lambda/\mu}N=λ/μ+xλ/μ​ with integer NNN. Jagers and Van Doorn (Operations Research Letters 5, 1986; SIAM Review 33, 1991) studied the continued Erlang loss and delay functions at non-integer numbers of servers, including their convexity, which is what lets the staffing problem be relaxed to a continuous one. Borst, Mandelbaum and Reiman (2000/2004) used these to prove asymptotic optimality of square-root rules for both the cost and the constraint formulations.

Setting

Customers arrive at rate λ\lambdaλ to NNN identical servers, each with service rate μ>0\mu > 0μ>0; μ\muμ is fixed while λ→∞\lambda \to \inftyλ→∞. Stability requires N>λ/μN > \lambda/\muN>λ/μ. A customer who waits ttt time units costs Dλ(t)D_\lambda(t)Dλ​(t), where Dλ(0)=0D_\lambda(0) = 0Dλ​(0)=0, DλD_\lambdaDλ​ is strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and ∫0∞Dλ(t)e−θt dt<∞\int_0^\infty D_\lambda(t)e^{-\theta t}\,dt < \infty∫0∞​Dλ​(t)e−θtdt<∞ for all θ>0\theta > 0θ>0.

The Erlang-C probability of waiting is

π(N,ν)=νNN!{(1−ν/N)∑n=0N−1νnn!+νNN!}−1,\pi(N,\nu) = \frac{\nu^N}{N!}\Big\{(1-\nu/N)\sum_{n=0}^{N-1}\frac{\nu^n}{n!} + \frac{\nu^N}{N!}\Big\}^{-1},π(N,ν)=N!νN​{(1−ν/N)n=0∑N−1​n!νn​+N!νN​}−1,

and the conditional waiting cost is G(N,λ)=(Nμ−λ)∫0∞Dλ(t)e−(Nμ−λ)t dtG(N,\lambda) = (N\mu-\lambda)\int_0^\infty D_\lambda(t)e^{-(N\mu-\lambda)t}\,dtG(N,λ)=(Nμ−λ)∫0∞​Dλ​(t)e−(Nμ−λ)tdt. The waiting cost per unit time with NNN servers is

K(N,λ)=λ π(N,λ/μ) G(N,λ).K(N,\lambda) = \lambda\,\pi(N,\lambda/\mu)\,G(N,\lambda).K(N,λ)=λπ(N,λ/μ)G(N,λ).

Given a target Mλ>0M_\lambda > 0Mλ​>0, the optimal staffing level is the least integer N>λ/μN > \lambda/\muN>λ/μ with K(N,λ)≤MλK(N,\lambda) \le M_\lambdaK(N,λ)≤Mλ​; call it Nλ∗N^*_\lambdaNλ∗​.

In the continuous parametrization Nλ(x)=λ/μ+xλ/μN_\lambda(x) = \lambda/\mu + x\sqrt{\lambda/\mu}Nλ​(x)=λ/μ+xλ/μ​, define Gλ(x)=λG(Nλ(x),λ)G_\lambda(x) = \lambda G(N_\lambda(x),\lambda)Gλ​(x)=λG(Nλ​(x),λ), the continuous Erlang-C function πλ(x)=H(Nλ(x),λ/μ)\pi_\lambda(x) = H(N_\lambda(x),\lambda/\mu)πλ​(x)=H(Nλ​(x),λ/μ) with H(M,α)={α∫0∞e−αtt(1+t)M−1dt}−1H(M,\alpha) = \{\alpha\int_0^\infty e^{-\alpha t}t(1+t)^{M-1}dt\}^{-1}H(M,α)={α∫0∞​e−αtt(1+t)M−1dt}−1, and Kλ(x)=πλ(x)Gλ(x)K_\lambda(x) = \pi_\lambda(x)G_\lambda(x)Kλ​(x)=πλ​(x)Gλ​(x). The Halfin–Whitt function is P(x)=1/(1+x/h(−x))P(x) = 1/(1 + x/h(-x))P(x)=1/(1+x/h(−x)) with h=ϕ/(1−Φ)h = \phi/(1-\Phi)h=ϕ/(1−Φ) the standard normal hazard rate. A staffing function xλ>0x_\lambda > 0xλ​>0 is judged by the rounding gap

Tλ(x)=min⁡{∣K(⌊Nλ(x)⌋,λ)−Mλ∣, ∣K(⌈Nλ(x)⌉,λ)−Mλ∣, ∣K(⌈Nλ(x)⌉,λ)−K(Nλ∗,λ)∣}.T_\lambda(x) = \min\big\{|K(\lfloor N_\lambda(x)\rfloor,\lambda) - M_\lambda|,\ |K(\lceil N_\lambda(x)\rceil,\lambda) - M_\lambda|,\ |K(\lceil N_\lambda(x)\rceil,\lambda) - K(N^*_\lambda,\lambda)|\big\}.Tλ​(x)=min{∣K(⌊Nλ​(x)⌋,λ)−Mλ​∣, ∣K(⌈Nλ​(x)⌉,λ)−Mλ​∣, ∣K(⌈Nλ​(x)⌉,λ)−K(Nλ∗​,λ)∣}.

It is asymptotically optimal when Tλ(xλ)/Mλ→0T_\lambda(x_\lambda)/M_\lambda \to 0Tλ​(xλ​)/Mλ​→0 as λ→∞\lambda\to\inftyλ→∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.2 (rationalized regime)

Suppose that for some κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 and γ∈(0,∞)\gamma \in (0,\infty)γ∈(0,∞), Gλ(κ)/Mλ→γG_\lambda(\kappa)/M_\lambda \to \gammaGλ​(κ)/Mλ​→γ, i.e. the waiting cost is comparable to the target. Let yλ∗>0y^*_\lambda > 0yλ∗​>0 solve P(y)Gλ(y)=MλP(y)G_\lambda(y) = M_\lambdaP(y)Gλ​(y)=Mλ​. Then

lim⁡λ→∞Tλ(yλ∗)Mλ=0.\lim_{\lambda\to\infty}\frac{T_\lambda(y^*_\lambda)}{M_\lambda} = 0.λ→∞lim​Mλ​Tλ​(yλ∗​)​=0.

Supporting milestones

  • Lemma C.1: GλG_\lambdaGλ​ is strictly convex and decreasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞).
  • Section 3: πλ(x)=π(Nλ(x),λ/μ)\pi_\lambda(x) = \pi(N_\lambda(x),\lambda/\mu)πλ​(x)=π(Nλ​(x),λ/μ) when Nλ(x)N_\lambda(x)Nλ​(x) is an integer.
  • Lemma 8.1: if zλ∗>0z^*_\lambda > 0zλ∗​>0 solves π^λ(z)G^λ(z)=Mλ\hat\pi_\lambda(z)\hat G_\lambda(z) = M_\lambdaπ^λ​(z)G^λ​(z)=Mλ​ and Kλ(zλ∗)/(π^λG^λ)(zλ∗)→1K_\lambda(z^*_\lambda)/(\hat\pi_\lambda\hat G_\lambda)(z^*_\lambda) \to 1Kλ​(zλ∗​)/(π^λ​G^λ​)(zλ∗​)→1, then Tλ(zλ∗)/Mλ→0T_\lambda(z^*_\lambda)/M_\lambda \to 0Tλ​(zλ∗​)/Mλ​→0.
  • Lemma B.1: PPP is strictly convex and decreasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞).
  • Eq. (17): lim sup⁡aλ/b=∞\limsup a_\lambda/b = \inftylimsupaλ​/b=∞ implies lim inf⁡P(aλ)/P(b)=0\liminf P(a_\lambda)/P(b) = 0liminfP(aλ​)/P(b)=0 and lim inf⁡πλ(aλ)/πλ(b)=0\liminf \pi_\lambda(a_\lambda)/\pi_\lambda(b) = 0liminfπλ​(aλ​)/πλ​(b)=0.
  • Lemma 4.1 (Halfin–Whitt): for bounded xλ>0x_\lambda > 0xλ​>0, πλ(xλ)/P(xλ)→1\pi_\lambda(x_\lambda)/P(x_\lambda) \to 1πλ​(xλ​)/P(xλ​)→1; with xλ→xx_\lambda \to xxλ​→x, πλ(xλ)/P(x)→1\pi_\lambda(x_\lambda)/P(x)\to 1πλ​(xλ​)/P(x)→1.

Further target: Theorem 8.6 (efficiency-driven regime)

If Gλ(κ)/Mλ→0G_\lambda(\kappa)/M_\lambda \to 0Gλ​(κ)/Mλ​→0 for every κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 and yλ∗>0y^*_\lambda > 0yλ∗​>0 solves Gλ(y)=MλG_\lambda(y) = M_\lambdaGλ​(y)=Mλ​, then Tλ(yλ∗)/Mλ→0T_\lambda(y^*_\lambda)/M_\lambda \to 0Tλ​(yλ∗​)/Mλ​→0.

Significance

The theorem certifies the staffing rule used in workforce-management practice: the excess staffing is determined by one scalar equation involving the Gaussian function PPP and the scaled waiting cost, and rounding the resulting staffing level misses the constraint by a vanishing fraction of the target. Lemma 8.1 is a reusable framework: any approximation π^λG^λ\hat\pi_\lambda\hat G_\lambdaπ^λ​G^λ​ that is asymptotically exact at the proposed staffing level yields an asymptotically optimal rule, and the paper instantiates it in three regimes (Theorems 8.2, 8.6, 8.9).

The results are proved on paper. To the best of current knowledge none of them, nor the Halfin–Whitt limit for the continuous Erlang-C extension, has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would produce the first verified heavy-traffic limit of the Erlang-C delay probability, a verified continuous Erlang-C extension with its integer identity, and the convexity facts about PPP and GλG_\lambdaGλ​ that many staffing papers cite without proof.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to quote Halfin and Whitt: the delay probability converges to P(x)P(x)P(x) under square-root staffing, so PPP can replace the Erlang-C formula. That limit, as published in 1981, is about integer server counts along sequences with a convergent excess-staffing parameter. The paper needs it for the continuous function HHH at non-integer server counts and for staffing functions that are merely bounded, and it also needs the identity H(N,ν)=π(N,ν)H(N,\nu) = \pi(N,\nu)H(N,ν)=π(N,ν) at integers and the monotonicity of πλ\pi_\lambdaπλ​ in xxx, both cited from Jagers and Van Doorn rather than proved. None of these is in Mathlib. A second obstacle is that the staffing function yλ∗y^*_\lambdayλ∗​ is defined only implicitly by an equation involving GλG_\lambdaGλ​, which depends on the arbitrary cost functions DλD_\lambdaDλ​; nothing a priori prevents it from escaping to infinity, outside the range where the Halfin–Whitt approximation applies. Finally, TλT_\lambdaTλ​ compares integer-level costs given by the Erlang-C formula with a continuous approximation, so both representations of the delay probability are in play at once.

Formalization scope

The queue itself is not formalized: there is no Markov chain and no waiting-time distribution. Every statement is about the closed-form waiting cost K(N,λ)K(N,\lambda)K(N,λ) with π\piπ given by the Erlang-C formula, exactly as the paper's analysis is. Conventions, all in the namespace DimCallCenters.Constraint:

  • lam : ℝ is the arrival rate (λ is a Lean keyword); limits are Filter.atTop in lam, with μ fixed. Objects indexed by λ (MλM_\lambdaMλ​, Nλ∗N^*_\lambdaNλ∗​, yλ∗y^*_\lambdayλ∗​) are functions of lam constrained only for lam > 0.
  • WaitModel packages μ > 0 and DλD_\lambdaDλ​ with Dλ(0)=0D_\lambda(0) = 0Dλ​(0)=0, strict monotonicity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and integrability of Dλ(t)e−θtD_\lambda(t)e^{-\theta t}Dλ​(t)e−θt on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) for θ > 0 (the paper's finiteness of GGG; integrability is required because Lean's integral of a non-integrable function is 0).
  • Nλ∗N^*_\lambdaNλ∗​ is a function Nstar : ℝ → ℕ given with its two defining properties (feasible; below every feasible integer level above λ/μ). yλ∗y^*_\lambdayλ∗​ and zλ∗z^*_\lambdazλ∗​ are any positive solutions of their equations; existence and uniqueness are not hypotheses.
  • In TλT_\lambdaTλ​ the round-down term is dropped when ⌊Nλ(x)⌋≤λ/μ\lfloor N_\lambda(x)\rfloor \le \lambda/\mu⌊Nλ​(x)⌋≤λ/μ (an unstable level where KKK is undefined). This can only enlarge TλT_\lambdaTλ​.
  • Asymptotic relations are limits of ratios. lim sup⁡=∞\limsup = \inftylimsup=∞ and lim inf⁡=0\liminf = 0liminf=0 are stated with ∃ᶠ ("frequently"), lim sup⁡<∞\limsup < \inftylimsup<∞ as eventual boundedness.
  • PPP is defined through explicit ϕ\phiϕ, Φ\PhiΦ, hhh; the formula also gives P(0)=1P(0) = 1P(0)=1, used in Lemma 4.1(2) at x=0x = 0x=0.
  • No hypothesis lim⁡N↓λ/μG(N,λ)=∞\lim_{N\downarrow\lambda/\mu}G(N,\lambda) = \inftylimN↓λ/μ​G(N,λ)=∞ is added: it is not needed for the statements here.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: TλT_\lambdaTλ​ keeps all of the paper's terms and is never replaced by a smaller quantity, and the hypotheses are jointly satisfiable — Dλ(t)=aλ/μ tD_\lambda(t) = a\sqrt{\lambda/\mu}\,tDλ​(t)=aλ/μ​t with Mλ=MλM_\lambda = M\lambdaMλ​=Mλ satisfies (33) for every κ\kappaκ with γ=a/(μκM)\gamma = a/(\mu\kappa M)γ=a/(μκM).

Infrastructure needed: the continuous Erlang-C function and its integer identity; the Halfin–Whitt limit (a Gaussian approximation of Poisson/gamma tails); calculus facts about the normal hazard rate. These are reusable beyond this mission, notably by the sibling missions on the cost-minimization problem. Example 8.5 (delay-probability target with Dλ=1t>0D_\lambda = 1_{t>0}Dλ​=1t>0​) motivates the rule but violates the strict monotonicity of DλD_\lambdaDλ​, so it is not an instance of the theorem as stated. Contributions on any milestone, and on Theorem 8.9 (quality-driven regime, which needs Lemma 4.2), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Borst, A. Mandelbaum, M. I. Reiman, Dimensioning Large Call Centers, CWI Report PNA-R0015, 2000; Operations Research 52(1):17–34, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0081
  • S. Halfin, W. Whitt, Heavy-Traffic Limits for Queues with Many Exponential Servers, Operations Research 29(3):567–588, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • A. A. Jagers, E. A. Van Doorn, On the Continued Erlang Loss Function, Operations Research Letters 5:43–46, 1986.
  • A. A. Jagers, E. A. Van Doorn, Convexity of Functions which are Generalizations of the Erlang Loss Function and the Erlang Delay Function, SIAM Review 33:281–282, 1991.
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

The Sample Complexity of Pattern Classification with Neural Networks: The Size of the Weights is More Important than the Size of the Network III: Sigmoid Networks with Small Weights GeneralizeResearch Paper

Motivation

A classifier built from a neural network produces a real score and predicts a binary label from its sign. A network can have many hidden units, so a guarantee based only on the number of parameters can be uninformative even when its output weights are small. Bartlett's 1998 paper asks whether a classifier's margin on training examples and the total magnitude of its weights can control its probability of error without fixing the number of units. Its Theorem 28 gives such a statement for two-layer networks whose activation is bounded and nondecreasing. The paper also discusses why this parameter-magnitude view supports weight decay and early stopping as learning heuristics, while leaving their algorithmic behavior outside the theorem's scope (Bartlett 1998, pp. 526, 534–535).

The theorem combines two results in the same paper. Theorem 2 turns the fat-shattering dimension of a real-valued function class into a margin generalization bound. Corollary 24 controls that dimension for finite combinations of affine-input units when the sum of the absolute combination weights is bounded. Lemmas 19, 22, and 23 supply covering estimates along that path. These are the milestones of this mission, with the source statements preserved in the milestone record (Bartlett 1998, pp. 527, 532–534).

Setting

An input is a vector x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn, represented in Lean as Fin n → ℝ. A label is y∈{−1,+1}y\in\{-1,+1\}y∈{−1,+1}; Lean's Bool is converted by pm, where true means +1+1+1. A probability distribution PPP lives on labeled inputs. From an independent sample z=((xi,yi))i=1mz=((x_i,y_i))_{i=1}^mz=((xi​,yi​))i=1m​, the empirical margin error at scale γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 is the fraction of indices with yih(xi)<γy_i h(x_i)<\gammayi​h(xi​)<γ. The population error is the probability that sgn⁡(h(x))≠y\operatorname{sgn}(h(x))\ne ysgn(h(x))=y, where sgn⁡(0)=+1\operatorname{sgn}(0)=+1sgn(0)=+1. The inequality in the empirical error is strict, as in the paper's definition (Bartlett 1998, p. 526).

Fix a bounded nondecreasing activation σ:R→[−1,1]\sigma:\mathbb R\to[-1,1]σ:R→[−1,1]. The first-layer class FFF contains every x↦σ(w⋅x+w0)x\mapsto\sigma(w\cdot x+w_0)x↦σ(w⋅x+w0​), with an arbitrary weight vector and bias. The network class HHH contains all finite sums ∑i=1Nαifi\sum_{i=1}^N\alpha_i f_i∑i=1N​αi​fi​ with fi∈Ff_i\in Ffi​∈F and ∑i∣αi∣≤A\sum_i|\alpha_i|\le A∑i​∣αi​∣≤A. Thus AAA bounds the output layer's total weight magnitude, while NNN can vary without an imposed width limit. The bias w0w_0w0​ is part of every unit. For a class GGG, fat⁡G(η)\operatorname{fat}_G(\eta)fatG​(η) records the largest length of an input sequence whose every sign pattern can be realized with separation at least η\etaη around one vector of thresholds (Bartlett 1998, pp. 526, 533–534).

Formalization targets

Two-layer generalization

For 0<γ≤10<\gamma\le10<γ≤1, 0<δ<1/20<\delta<1/20<δ<1/2, A≥1A\ge1A≥1, and an independent sample of length m≥1m\ge1m≥1, the goal is one universal c>0c>0c>0 such that, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H satisfies

er⁡P(h)<er⁡^zγ(h)+cm(A2nγ2log⁡ ⁣(32Aγ)(log⁡m)2+log⁡ ⁣(1δ)).\operatorname{er}_P(h)<\widehat{\operatorname{er}}_z^\gamma(h)+ \sqrt{\frac{c}{m}\left( \frac{A^2n}{\gamma^2}\log\!\left(\frac{32A}{\gamma}\right)(\log m)^2+ \log\!\left(\frac1\delta\right)\right)}.erP​(h)<erzγ​(h)+mc​(γ2A2n​log(γ32A​)(logm)2+log(δ1​))​.

The paper prints log⁡(A/γ)\log(A/\gamma)log(A/γ) in this display. That term vanishes at A=γ=1A=\gamma=1A=γ=1, although the class can then contain halfspace classifiers with nonzero sample complexity. The proof obtains a positive factor at that corner through Corollary 24 at scale γ/16\gamma/16γ/16, giving log⁡(32A/γ)\log(32A/\gamma)log(32A/γ). The goal states this correction and records the printed statement separately in the moderation notes. The constant precedes all network, distribution, margin, confidence, and sample parameters in Lean; it cannot be selected after observing the instance (Bartlett 1998, pp. 533–534).

Capacity and margin milestones

Corollary 24 bounds fat⁡H(η)\operatorname{fat}_H(\eta)fatH​(η) by a constant multiple of M2A2nη−2log⁡(MA/η)M^2A^2n\eta^{-2}\log(MA/\eta)M2A2nη−2log(MA/η) when the activation has range [−M/2,M/2][-M/2,M/2][−M/2,M/2]. Theorem 2 then converts a finite fat dimension at scale γ/16\gamma/16γ/16 into a simultaneous bound on population error for all members of HHH. The three covering lemmas track how shattering, pseudodimension, and an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ weight budget affect covers in sample ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​, ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​, and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ distances. Each bound retains the scale and explicit constants printed by the paper, subject to the stated corrections to undefined or false boundary cases (Bartlett 1998, pp. 527, 532–533).

Significance

The goal gives a width-independent generalization guarantee for a chosen network when its empirical margin error and total output weight are small. It applies to the entire class HHH at once, so choosing a network after inspecting the sample does not turn the bound into a claim about only one fixed predictor. It does not assert that a learning algorithm finds such a network or that the displayed constants are optimal. Bartlett notes that later work had improved a logarithmic factor, and that empirical agreement with neural-network performance remained an open experimental question at the time (Bartlett 1998, pp. 534–535).

The paper proves the mathematical result. This mission asks for a machine-checked proof of its corrected formal statement and the stated supporting results; the draft theorem files currently contain proof obligations. A completed development would also make the fat dimension and strict external sample-cover definitions available for other margin analyses. Those objects differ from the platform's fixed-architecture neural networks and closed-ball covering numbers, so they are defined here with the conventions of this paper.

Difficulty

Counting hidden units gives no finite width-independent capacity bound, because HHH permits arbitrarily many terms. Bounding each unit separately also does not control the full combination class: different small contributions can produce distinct values on a sample. The challenging step is relating covers of the base class to covers of all finite combinations under the total absolute-weight constraint, and then relating those covers back to fat-shattering. Even once a finite capacity estimate is available, the probability statement must hold simultaneously for every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H, including a network selected after sampling (Bartlett 1998, pp. 532–534).

Formalization scope

Lean uses N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞} for fat dimensions and covering numbers, so an unbounded class cannot acquire a spurious dimension zero. Covers are external finite sets of real functions and use the strict distance <ε<\varepsilon<ε of Definition 3. Sample ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ distances are normalized by mmm. Pseudodimension is the supremum of positive-scale fat dimensions, matching the paper's right limit. Theorems assume m≥1m\ge1m≥1, and sample indices are zero-based. The network class is generated from its weights rather than supplied as an arbitrary set satisfying the desired bound.

The paper says it ignores measurability issues and assumes all sets considered are measurable (Bartlett 1998, p. 526). The goal makes the event of a violating network measurable. Its individual network functions are measurable from monotonicity of σ\sigmaσ and finite sums; the restated Theorem 2 has explicit hypotheses for measurable class members, the violating event, and the double-sample event in its proof. Theorem 2 additionally restricts d=fat⁡H(γ/16)d=\operatorname{fat}_H(\gamma/16)d=fatH​(γ/16) to d≤34md\le34md≤34m, where its printed logarithmic bound remains valid. Corollary 24 uses n≥1n\ge1n≥1 because a zero-dimensional input still permits a biased constant unit. Lemma 23 uses d≥1d\ge1d≥1 and 0<γ<emM/d0<\gamma<emM/d0<γ<emM/d in place of the printed γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0: at γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 or d=0d=0d=0, or for γ≥emM/d\gamma\ge emM/dγ≥emM/d, the printed strict inequality fails, while on the rest of the printed range it is kept. These are recorded as corrections rather than attributed to the printed wording.

The deeper-network part of Theorem 28 is outside this proposal. Its printed chain through Corollary 27 has an unresolved range issue when the input box bound BBB is smaller than the activation range, and the displayed log⁡n\log nlogn factor also vanishes at n=1n=1n=1. This mission's goal is Part 1 and uses none of those claims. Contributions that establish the corrected covering lemmas, the capacity corollary, or the simultaneous margin bound fit the present proof frontier (Bartlett 1998, pp. 533–534).

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, The Sample Complexity of Pattern Classification with Neural Networks: The Size of the Weights is More Important than the Size of the Network, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 44(2), 525–536, 1998. DOI.
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