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Number Theory·Captain: marwahaha

Mahler's irrationality bound for π: 42Research Paper

Motivation

The irrationality of π\piπ rules out an exact representation as a rational number. A quantitative question asks how closely rational numbers can approximate it as their denominators grow. The irrationality measure records the threshold exponent for exceptionally accurate rational approximations. This mission formalizes the historical upper-bound milestone μ(π)≤42\mu(\pi)\le42μ(π)≤42 listed as C7aC_{7a}C7a​ in the optimization constants project.

Mahler's 1953 paper establishes a stronger, explicit inequality in Theorem 1. The mission extracts its consequence for the irrationality measure and states that consequence through a shared Lean predicate. The number 42 is the chosen historical milestone; it is neither a claim about the exact value of the measure nor a claim to the strongest bound mentioned anywhere in Mahler's paper. Mahler, original p. 33.

Setting

Write p∈Zp\in\mathbb Zp∈Z for a numerator and q∈Nq\in\mathbb Nq∈N for a positive denominator. The approximation error is the real number ∣π−p/q∣|\pi-p/q|∣π−p/q∣. The exponent BBB describes an upper bound on the irrationality measure through an eventual lower bound on this error.

The shared predicate PiIrrationality.UpperBound B means that for every real ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, some natural-number threshold QQQ satisfies

1qB+ε<∣π−pq∣\frac{1}{q^{B+\varepsilon}}<\left|\pi-\frac pq\right|qB+ε1​<​π−qp​​

for every integer ppp and every natural number q>0q>0q>0 with Q≤qQ\le qQ≤q. The threshold can depend on ε\varepsilonε and on the chosen bound BBB; it cannot depend on the later choices of ppp or qqq. Numerators may be negative, zero, or positive. Fractions need not be in lowest terms. This is the epsilon characterization used in the definition of C7aC_{7a}C7a​.

Formalization targets

The goal is

μ(π)≤42,\mu(\pi)\le42,μ(π)≤42,

represented by PiIrrationality.UpperBound (42 : ℝ). Expanded, the target is

∀ε>0  ∃Q∈N  ∀p∈Z  ∀q∈N,q>0 ∧ Q≤q ⟹ 1q42+ε<∣π−pq∣.\forall\varepsilon>0\;\exists Q\in\mathbb N\;\forall p\in\mathbb Z\;\forall q\in\mathbb N,\quad q>0\ \land\ Q\le q\ \Longrightarrow\ \frac1{q^{42+\varepsilon}}<\left|\pi-\frac pq\right|.∀ε>0∃Q∈N∀p∈Z∀q∈N,q>0 ∧ Q≤q ⟹ q42+ε1​<​π−qp​​.

The mission contains one shared definition and one goal theorem. The definition introduces the proposition without asserting any bound. The theorem has no additional hypotheses, and its proof is intentionally left open. Future historical-bound missions can import the same definition and state a different numeric bound without changing the quantity being tracked.

Significance

A finite upper bound restricts the quality of rational approximations to π\piπ and excludes approximation at arbitrarily large exponents. The formal result would supply a reusable quantitative fact beyond the assertion that π\piπ is irrational. The published mathematical result is known; the work requested here is a machine-checked proof of the stated consequence.

The shared definition also fixes the meaning of all entries in the accompanying campaign. A smaller bound makes a stronger claim. A proof of a stronger entry may establish this historical goal as a consequence, provided it uses the same definition and no extra hypotheses. The mission remains mathematically valid after further improvements to the numerical bound.

Difficulty

A proof that π\piπ is irrational only establishes nonzero approximation errors. The target requires a uniform lower estimate over every numerator once the denominator passes a threshold. Checking finitely many rational approximations cannot establish the quantified conclusion. A formal development must control the dependence of its estimates and thresholds, and justify every passage between an analytic estimate and the final rational-approximation inequality.

The exact theorem from Mahler should be distinguished from this goal: his explicit uniform inequality is stronger than the eventual epsilon statement recorded here. A proof may pass through that uniform result, but the goal does not require a particular proof method, a particular threshold, or a separate treatment of every auxiliary theorem in the original paper.

Formalization scope

The circle constant is Mathlib's Real.pi. Absolute value, division, and exponentiation in the displayed inequality are operations on the real numbers; in particular, q42+εq^{42+\varepsilon}q42+ε is a real power. The denominator is explicitly positive, so division by zero cannot satisfy the premises. Allowing Q=0Q=0Q=0 does not remove the positivity requirement on qqq.

The definition is stored in Definitions.Def_PiIrrationality_UpperBound. The goal imports this definition instead of introducing another version of it. The conclusion is not placed among the theorem's assumptions. The definition contains no proof placeholder; the sole sorry is the open proof of the goal theorem. Contributions may establish supporting estimates or a complete proof while preserving these conventions.

Selected references

  • K. Mahler, On the approximation of π, Nederl. Akad. Wetensch. Proc. Ser. A 56 = Indag. Math. 15 (1953), 30–42, Theorem 1, p. 33. EMS reprint.
  • Optimization problems project, The irrationality measure of π, constant C7aC_{7a}C7a​: definition and historical bounds. Source page.
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Graph Theory·Captain: Lucas

Hadwiger's ConjectureOpen Problem

Motivation

Hadwiger's conjecture (1943) asserts that for every integer t≥0t\ge 0t≥0, every graph with no Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ minor is ttt-colourable. It is a far-reaching strengthening of the four-colour theorem, and it is widely described as one of the central open problems of graph theory (Bollobás, Catlin and Erdős called it "one of the deepest unsolved problems in graph theory"). The interest is structural: the four-colour theorem concerns planar graphs, and Hadwiger's conjecture proposes that the only obstruction to ttt-colourability that matters is the presence of a complete graph Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ as a minor.

Timeline.

  • 1937 — Wagner shows that the case t=4t=4t=4 is equivalent to the four-colour theorem, via a clique-sum decomposition of graphs with no K5K_5K5​ minor.
  • 1943 — Hadwiger poses the conjecture and proves it for t≤3t\le 3t≤3 (graphs with no K4K_4K4​ minor have a vertex of degree at most two).
  • 1964 — Wagner proves that graphs with no Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ minor are 2t2^t2t-colourable.
  • 1967 — Mader proves that excluding any fixed minor forces a linear number of edges, and determines the exact extremal function for KtK_tKt​ minors when t≤7t\le 7t≤7.
  • 1976 — Appel and Haken prove the four-colour theorem, hence the case t=4t=4t=4.
  • 1982 — Duchet and Meyniel prove that every nnn-vertex graph has a KtK_tKt​ minor with t≥n/(2α(G)−1)t\ge n/(2\alpha(G)-1)t≥n/(2α(G)−1).
  • 1984 — Kostochka and Thomason independently show that graphs with no KtK_tKt​ minor have average degree O(tlog⁡t)O(t\sqrt{\log t})O(tlogt​), hence are O(tlog⁡t)O(t\sqrt{\log t})O(tlogt​)-colourable.
  • 1993 — Robertson, Seymour and Thomas prove the case t=5t=5t=5 (using the four-colour theorem).
  • 2023–2024 — Norin, Postle and Song, then Delcourt and Postle, improve the general bound to O(tlog⁡log⁡t)O(t\log\log t)O(tloglogt) colours.
  • (Date not recorded in the survey) Albar and Gonçalves prove that graphs with no K7K_7K7​ minor are 888-colourable and graphs with no K8K_8K8​ minor are 101010-colourable.

The case t=6t=6t=6 (graphs with no K7K_7K7​ minor are 666-colourable) is the first open case.

Setting

All graphs are finite and simple. A minor of a graph GGG is any graph obtained from a subgraph of GGG by contracting edges. Equivalently, a graph HHH on vertex set WWW is a minor of GGG if there are branch sets Bw⊆V(G)B_w\subseteq V(G)Bw​⊆V(G), w∈Ww\in Ww∈W, which are pairwise disjoint, each inducing a connected (nonempty) subgraph of GGG, and such that for every edge w1w2w_1w_2w1​w2​ of HHH some vertex of Bw1B_{w_1}Bw1​​ is adjacent to some vertex of Bw2B_{w_2}Bw2​​. GGG has a KtK_tKt​ minor if the complete graph KtK_tKt​ is a minor of GGG, i.e. GGG contains ttt pairwise disjoint connected vertex sets, every two joined by an edge.

A graph is ttt-colourable if its vertices can be coloured with ttt colours so that adjacent vertices receive different colours; χ(G)\chi(G)χ(G) is the least such ttt. Write HC(t)\mathrm{HC}(t)HC(t) for the statement "every graph with no Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ minor is ttt-colourable". A graph is kkk-degenerate if every nonempty set of vertices contains a vertex with at most kkk neighbours inside the set. The stability number α(G)\alpha(G)α(G) is the largest size of a set of pairwise non-adjacent vertices.

Formalization targets

Goal

∀t≥0:Kt+1⪯̸G ⟹ χ(G)≤tfor every finite graph G.\forall t\ge 0:\qquad K_{t+1}\not\preceq G\ \Longrightarrow\ \chi(G)\le t\qquad\text{for every finite graph } G.∀t≥0:Kt+1​⪯G ⟹ χ(G)≤tfor every finite graph G.

Proved special cases

HC(t) for t≤3,HC(4),HC(5).\mathrm{HC}(t)\ \text{for } t\le 3,\qquad \mathrm{HC}(4),\qquad \mathrm{HC}(5).HC(t) for t≤3,HC(4),HC(5).

Weaker colouring bounds

  • no Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ minor ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ χ(G)≤2t\chi(G)\le 2^tχ(G)≤2t (Wagner);
  • no KtK_tKt​ minor ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ χ(G)=O(tlog⁡t)\chi(G)=O(t\sqrt{\log t})χ(G)=O(tlogt​) (Kostochka, Thomason) and χ(G)=O(tlog⁡log⁡t)\chi(G)=O(t\log\log t)χ(G)=O(tloglogt) (Delcourt–Postle);
  • no K7K_7K7​ minor ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ χ≤8\chi\le 8χ≤8; no K8K_8K8​ minor ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ χ≤10\chi\le 10χ≤10 (Albar–Gonçalves).

Supporting extremal and structural results

  • non-null graphs with no K4K_4K4​ minor have a vertex of degree ≤2\le 2≤2;
  • kkk-degenerate graphs are (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-colourable;
  • for every HHH there is ccc with ∣E(G)∣≤c∣V(G)∣|E(G)|\le c|V(G)|∣E(G)∣≤c∣V(G)∣ whenever H⪯̸GH\not\preceq GH⪯G (Mader);
  • the exact edge bounds n−1n-1n−1, 2n−32n-32n−3, 3n−63n-63n−6 for no K3K_3K3​, K4K_4K4​, K5K_5K5​ minor, and (t−2)n−(t−12)(t-2)n-\binom{t-1}{2}(t−2)n−(2t−1​) for no KtK_tKt​ minor, t≤7t\le 7t≤7 (Mader);
  • every nnn-vertex graph has a KtK_tKt​ minor with t≥n/(2α(G)−1)t\ge n/(2\alpha(G)-1)t≥n/(2α(G)−1) (Duchet–Meyniel);
  • a graph with no Kt+1K_{t+1}Kt+1​ minor has a ttt-colourable induced subgraph on at least half of its vertices.

Significance

A proof of the conjecture would give a structural explanation of the four-colour theorem that does not depend on planarity, and would settle the chromatic number of every minor-closed class defined by excluding a single complete graph. Partial results already drive the theory of graph minors: bounds on the average degree of KtK_tKt​-minor-free graphs are the standard input to colouring, and linear Hadwiger-type bounds are used in structural and algorithmic graph theory.

On the formal side, only the smallest cases have Lean proofs: the platform already contains proofs of the cases t≤2t\le 2t≤2 under a different encoding of minors (namespace Hadwiger), which may be reused after bridging the definitions. The cases t≤3t\le 3t≤3, Wagner's 2t2^t2t bound, the degeneracy lemma, the small extremal bounds and the Duchet–Meyniel theorem have elementary proofs and are realistic targets. The cases t=4,5t=4,5t=4,5 depend on the four-colour theorem, whose formal proof exists in Coq but not in Lean; formalizing them here requires either porting that proof or proving the reduction to it. The general conjecture is open.

Difficulty

The natural approach — contracting the colour classes of an optimal colouring — does not produce a minor, because colour classes are independent sets and contraction is only allowed along edges. Degeneracy arguments only give bounds of order tlog⁡tt\sqrt{\log t}tlogt​, since dense random graphs with no large clique minor have average degree of that order; closing the gap to ttt requires using large chromatic number itself, not just density. Already for t=4t=4t=4 the statement is equivalent to the four-colour theorem, so no short proof is expected for any t≥4t\ge 4t≥4.

Formalization scope

Graphs are SimpleGraph V on a finite vertex type V : Type. Minors are encoded by branch sets (IsMinor), complete minors by HasCompleteMinor G t (the complete graph on Fin t is a minor of G), colourability by Mathlib's SimpleGraph.Colorable, and edge counts by the cardinality of the edge set. HC(t)\mathrm{HC}(t)HC(t) is the definition HC t. Logarithms are natural logarithms; asymptotic bounds are stated with an explicit existential constant and a ceiling. The case t=0t=0t=0 is included; HasCompleteMinor G 0 holds for every graph, so no statement becomes vacuous through a degenerate minor definition.

Useful reusable infrastructure: minor models and their composition, contraction of connected sets, greedy colouring of degenerate graphs, and edge-counting for minor-free graphs. Contributions of intermediate lemmas along the milestones are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Seymour, Hadwiger's conjecture, in: Open Problems in Mathematics, Springer, 2016 (survey; source of the milestone numbering).
  • Wikipedia, Hadwiger conjecture (graph theory). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadwiger_conjecture_(graph_theory)
  • H. Hadwiger, Über eine Klassifikation der Streckenkomplexe, Vierteljschr. Naturforsch. Ges. Zürich 88 (1943).
  • K. Wagner, Über eine Eigenschaft der ebenen Komplexe, Math. Ann. 114 (1937).
  • N. Robertson, P. Seymour, R. Thomas, Hadwiger's conjecture for K6K_6K6​-free graphs, Combinatorica 13 (1993).
  • A. Kostochka, Lower bound of the Hadwiger number of graphs by their average degree, Combinatorica 4 (1984).
  • A. Thomason, An extremal function for contractions of graphs, Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 95 (1984).
  • M. Delcourt, L. Postle, Reducing linear Hadwiger's conjecture to coloring small graphs (2024).
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior II: Games with Perfect Information Are Strictly DeterminedTextbook

Motivation

Chess, checkers, Go and Backgammon share a feature that card games such as Poker lack: whenever a player moves, the player knows everything that has happened so far. von Neumann and Morgenstern call this perfect information and devote §15 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944; 3rd ed. 1953) to it. Their result is that such a game, viewed as a zero-sum two-person game, is strictly determined: it has a value that each player can secure with a pure strategy, without any randomization. For Chess this means that exactly one of three statements is true: White can force a win, Black can force a win, or both can force at least a draw ((15:D:a)–(15:D:c)).

Timeline. Zermelo (1913, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels) showed for Chess that either one side can force a win or both can avoid losing; his argument is not phrased in terms of strategies and a value, and was later corrected and completed by König (1927) and Kalmár (1928/29). von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944, §15) proved strict determinateness for every finite zero-sum two-person game with perfect information, including chance moves (15.7.1), and gave the explicit formula (15:12) for the value. Kuhn (1953, Extensive games and the problem of information, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28) recast games in tree form and extended the pure-strategy existence result to general-sum games with perfect information (subgame-perfect equilibria by backward induction).

Setting

A game tree Γ\GammaΓ is a finite rooted tree. Each leaf is a finished play π\piπ and carries the payoff F1(π)∈R\mathfrak F_1(\pi) \in \mathbb RF1​(π)∈R to player 1; player 2 receives −F1(π)-\mathfrak F_1(\pi)−F1​(π). Each internal node is a move M\mathfrak MM of one of three kinds kkk, with alternatives σ=1,…,α\sigma = 1, \dots, \alphaσ=1,…,α leading to subtrees Γσ\Gamma_\sigmaΓσ​:

  • k=0k = 0k=0, a chance move, where alternative σ\sigmaσ occurs with probability p(σ)≧0p(\sigma) \geqq 0p(σ)≧0, ∑σp(σ)=1\sum_\sigma p(\sigma) = 1∑σ​p(σ)=1;
  • k=1k = 1k=1, a personal move of player 1, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1;
  • k=2k = 2k=2, a personal move of player 2, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1.

A pure strategy τ1\tau_1τ1​ of player 1 is a complete plan choosing an alternative at every node of kind 1; τ2\tau_2τ2​ does the same at every node of kind 2. The normalized form H(τ1,τ2)\mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2)H(τ1​,τ2​) is the expected payoff to player 1, the expectation being over the chance moves. With the maxima and minima taken over the finitely many pure strategies,

v1=Max⁡τ1Min⁡τ2H(τ1,τ2),v2=Min⁡τ2Max⁡τ1H(τ1,τ2).v_1 = \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2), \qquad v_2 = \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2).v1​=Maxτ1​​Minτ2​​H(τ1​,τ2​),v2​=Minτ2​​Maxτ1​​H(τ1​,τ2​).

Always v1≦v2v_1 \leqq v_2v1​≦v2​; the game is strictly determined when v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ (14.4.2).

For a function f(σ1)f(\sigma_1)f(σ1​) of the alternatives of the first move M1\mathfrak M_1M1​, of kind k1k_1k1​, the operation Mσ1k1M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1}Mσ1​k1​​ of (15:8) is ∑σ1p1(σ1)f(σ1)\sum_{\sigma_1} p_1(\sigma_1) f(\sigma_1)∑σ1​​p1​(σ1​)f(σ1​), Max⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Maxσ1​​f(σ1​) or Min⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Min}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Minσ1​​f(σ1​) for k1=0,1,2k_1 = 0, 1, 2k1​=0,1,2. Applying these operations from the leaves back to the root gives the backward-induction value v(Γ)v(\Gamma)v(Γ).

Formalization targets

Goal: 15.6.1 with (15:12)

For every finite game tree Γ\GammaΓ,

v1=v2=v=Mσ1k1Mσ2k2(σ1)⋯Mσνkν(σ1,…,σν−1)F1(π(σ1,…,σν)).v_1 = v_2 = v = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} M^{k_2(\sigma_1)}_{\sigma_2} \cdots M^{k_\nu(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_{\nu-1})}_{\sigma_\nu} \mathfrak F_1(\pi(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_\nu)).v1​=v2​=v=Mσ1​k1​​Mσ2​k2​(σ1​)​⋯Mσν​kν​(σ1​,…,σν−1​)​F1​(π(σ1​,…,σν​)).

Both the equality v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ and the value formula are part of the goal.

Milestones

  • (13:E): for finite nonempty domains and fff ranging over all functions of xxx, Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Min⁡fMax⁡xψ(x,f(x))\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Min}_f \operatorname{Max}_x \psi(x, f(x))Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Minf​Maxx​ψ(x,f(x)); and (13:G): Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Max⁡xMin⁡uψ(x,u)\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_u \psi(x, u)Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Maxx​Minu​ψ(x,u).
  • (15:2)–(15:7): vk=Mσ1k1vσ1/kv_k = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/k}vk​=Mσ1​k1​​vσ1​/k​ for k=1,2k = 1, 2k=1,2, one milestone for each kind of first move, without assuming that any game is strictly determined.
  • (15:C:a): a game of length 000 is strictly determined with value www; (15:C:b): if every Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​ is strictly determined, so is Γ\GammaΓ.
  • (15:13), (15:D:a)–(15:D:c): for games without chance moves whose plays end in 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1, the value is one of these three numbers, and it decides which player can force a win or whether both can force a tie.

Significance

The theorem is the first existence result for the value of a class of games in pure strategies. It shows that the whole difficulty of the general zero-sum two-person game, the need for mixed strategies (§17), comes from imperfect information. It gives a construction as well as an existence proof: the value and optimal strategies are computed by backward induction, the procedure behind retrograde analysis of endgames, minimax search in game-playing programs, and the dynamic programming recursions of sequential decision problems with an adversary. The Chess trichotomy (15:D) is its best-known consequence.

Formalizing it adds a checked account of the passage from the extensive to the normalized form for a whole class of games, which the book carries out informally (15.4.2, 15.5.1: "the reader may verify it from the formalistic point of view"). The result is classical and fully proved in the book; the work is to formalize that proof on a tree model. Mathlib has saddle points (Order/SaddlePoint) and the minimax theorem for continuous functions (Topology/Sion), but no game trees, strategies of extensive games, or backward induction. No machine-checked version of this theorem with chance moves and the normalized form over complete plans is known to the mission.

Difficulty

The recursions (15:2)–(15:7) are not formal consequences of the definitions: v1v_1v1​ and v2v_2v2​ are extrema over whole plans of Γ\GammaΓ, while the right-hand sides are extrema over plans of the separate games Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​. At a personal move of player 1, v2=Max⁡σ1vσ1/2v_2 = \operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/2}v2​=Maxσ1​​vσ1​/2​ requires interchanging a Min over player 2's plans, which are functions of player 1's first choice, with a Max over that choice: this is exactly (13:E), a max-min equality that fails for general functions of two variables and holds here because the minimizing variable is a function of the maximizing one. A proof that treats the Max over τ1\tau_1τ1​ and the Min over τ2\tau_2τ2​ as interchangeable without this step is circular.

A second difficulty is the strategy spaces themselves. A complete plan chooses at nodes the plan itself excludes, so the pure strategies of Γ\GammaΓ are not simply pairs of a first choice and one strategy of the chosen subgame; the identification the book uses in 15.5.1 has to be justified by showing that the extra coordinates do not change H\mathcal HH.

Formalization scope

A game is an inductive type GameTree with constructors leaf w, chance α p next hp hsum, move1 α hα next, move2 α hα next; alternatives are Fin α (numbered from 000). The conditions p≧0p \geqq 0p≧0, ∑p=1\sum p = 1∑p=1 and α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at personal moves are constructor fields, so every tree is a legitimate game. Pure strategies are dependent types Strategy1 t, Strategy2 t defined by recursion on the tree (complete plans), with Fintype and Nonempty instances; H\mathcal HH is payoff t τ₁ τ₂, the expected leaf payoff; v1, v2 are Finset.sup'/Finset.inf' over all strategies, so every Max and Min is attained.

Standing hypotheses and conventions taken from the book:

  • finite strategy sets and attained extrema (13.2.1, 14.1.1): finite trees with finitely many alternatives at every move;
  • perfect information, i.e. preliminarity equals anteriority (6.4.1, (15:B)): built into the tree model, which is the sequence of games (15:1);
  • zero-sum two-person (15.3.1): one payoff F1\mathfrak F_1F1​, player 2 receives −F1-\mathfrak F_1−F1​ and minimizes H\mathcal HH;
  • chance probabilities nonnegative and summing to one (15.4.2, 10.1.1); α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at every move;
  • (15:D) additionally assumes no chance moves and outcomes 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1 (15.7.1).

The book's formal model is the set-theoretic one of §§9–10, with partitions of the set of plays; the tree restates it for the perfect-information case and does not formalize §§9–10. The book fixes one length ν\nuν for all plays; trees with plays of different lengths contain the book's games as a special case, so the goal is at least as strong as the book's theorem.

Strategies are plans, never responses: a strategy of player 1 is fixed before play and cannot depend on player 2's strategy, which would make v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ trivial. Chance moves are part of the goal; a version without them proves only the Chess case and is weaker than the book.

Reusable beyond this mission: the tree model, its strategy types and the normalized form, which later chapters on extensive games can import. Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, and a lemma identifying the strategies of Γ\GammaΓ with the book's recursive description (15.4.2, 15.5.1).

Selected references

  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 60th-anniversary edition, Princeton University Press, 2007 (reprint of the 3rd ed., 1953), §§6, 11, 13–15. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
  • E. Zermelo, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels, Proc. Fifth International Congress of Mathematicians, vol. II, 1913, pp. 501–504.
  • U. Schwalbe, P. Walker, Zermelo and the early history of game theory, Games and Economic Behavior 34 (2001), 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.2000.0794
  • H. W. Kuhn, Extensive games and the problem of information, in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28, Princeton, 1953, 193–216. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-012
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VIII: Bounds on Optimal Stock AllocationsTextbook

Motivation

Military and commercial service parts systems keep repairable parts at a central depot warehouse and at a set of operating bases. Chapter 10 of Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) turns from the planning models of the earlier chapters to execution. Each period, the stock that is at the depot or arriving there must be divided among the bases. The planner knows what is already in the pipeline and faces random demand at each base. The chapter's models are solved in a rolling-horizon manner. Each period's decisions are the first step of an optimal plan over a short horizon. That plan has to be computable at scale, for thousands of items and dozens of bases.

What makes this possible is a structural fact. In an optimal allocation, the cumulative stock sent to a base never exceeds what a single-period newsvendor problem at that base would ask for. This bound shrinks the allocation integer programs to linear programs of manageable size. This mission formalizes that bound and the facts it rests on.

Setting

Fix one item. Time is counted in whole periods t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,…, and JJJ is the finite set of bases. For each base jjj:

  • Ti0T_{i0}Ti0​ is the repair lead time, so shipments are decided in periods t=0,…,Ti0t = 0, \dots, T_{i0}t=0,…,Ti0​;
  • TijrT^r_{ij}Tijr​ and TijeT^e_{ij}Tije​ are the regular and expedited transportation times from the depot to base jjj, integers with 1≤Tije<Tijr1 \le T^e_{ij} < T^r_{ij}1≤Tije​<Tijr​;
  • S~i0t\tilde S_{i0t}S~i0t​ is the known cumulative supply at the depot through period ttt (stock on hand plus arrivals already in the pipeline), and S~ijt\tilde S_{ijt}S~ijt​ the known cumulative supply at base jjj. The latter is constant for t≥Tijrt \ge T^r_{ij}t≥Tijr​, since nothing not yet shipped can arrive earlier than TijrT^r_{ij}Tijr​ by regular transport;
  • XijtX_{ijt}Xijt​ is the cumulative demand at base jjj through period ttt, a nonnegative integer random variable, nondecreasing in ttt, with finite mean;
  • hij>0h_{ij} > 0hij​>0, bij>0b_{ij} > 0bij​>0 and eij≥0e_{ij} \ge 0eij​≥0 are the incremental holding, shortage and expediting costs.

If SijtS_{ijt}Sijt​ units have arrived at base jjj by period ttt, the expected cost of that period is

Gijt(S)=hij E[S−Xijt]++bij E[Xijt−S]+,G_{ijt}(S) = h_{ij}\,E[S - X_{ijt}]^+ + b_{ij}\,E[X_{ijt} - S]^+,Gijt​(S)=hij​E[S−Xijt​]++bij​E[Xijt​−S]+,

and stock left at the end of the horizon costs

Qij(S)=hij∑t>Tijr+Ti0E[S−Xijt]+.Q_{ij}(S) = h_{ij}\sum_{t > T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}} E[S - X_{ijt}]^+ .Qij​(S)=hij​t>Tijr​+Ti0​∑​E[S−Xijt​]+.

The stock allocation model SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ chooses nonnegative integer regular shipments yijtry^r_{ijt}yijtr​, t=0,…,Ti0t = 0, \dots, T_{i0}t=0,…,Ti0​, with cumulative shipments never exceeding cumulative depot supply. The cumulative stock at base jjj is Sijt=S~ij(Tijr−1)+∑t′≤t−Tijryijt′rS_{ijt} = \tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)} + \sum_{t' \le t - T^r_{ij}} y^r_{ijt'}Sijt​=S~ij(Tijr​−1)​+∑t′≤t−Tijr​​yijt′r​, and the model minimizes ∑j{∑t=TijrTijr+Ti0Gijt(Sijt)+Qij(Sij(Tijr+Ti0))}\sum_j \{\sum_{t=T^r_{ij}}^{T^r_{ij}+T_{i0}} G_{ijt}(S_{ijt}) + Q_{ij}(S_{ij(T^r_{ij}+T_{i0})})\}∑j​{∑t=Tijr​Tijr​+Ti0​​Gijt​(Sijt​)+Qij​(Sij(Tijr​+Ti0​)​)}. The extended model ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ adds expedited shipments yijtey^e_{ijt}yijte​, which arrive after TijeT^e_{ij}Tije​ periods at an extra cost eije_{ij}eij​ per unit.

The constrained newsvendor problem CNijt\mathrm{CN}_{ijt}CNijt​ minimizes Gijt(S)G_{ijt}(S)Gijt​(S) over integers S≥S~ijtS \ge \tilde S_{ijt}S≥S~ijt​. Its largest optimal solution is written S^ijt\hat S_{ijt}S^ijt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15 (p. 237)

In every optimal solution of SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​, for every base jjj and every t∈[Tijr,Tijr+Ti0]t \in [T^r_{ij}, T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}]t∈[Tijr​,Tijr​+Ti0​],

S~ij(Tijr−1)  ≤  Sijt∗  ≤  S^ijt.\tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)} \;\le\; S^*_{ijt} \;\le\; \hat S_{ijt}.S~ij(Tijr​−1)​≤Sijt∗​≤S^ijt​.

The bound is uniform over optimal solutions and uses nothing but the single-period problems.

Milestones

  1. Separability (Section 10.4.1, p. 236). The multi-item problem SAM\mathrm{SAM}SAM splits into the SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​: its optimal solutions are exactly the tuples of optimal item solutions, and Z∗=∑iZi∗Z^* = \sum_i Z^*_iZ∗=∑i​Zi∗​.
  2. Convexity of QijQ_{ij}Qij​ (p. 234) and of GijtG_{ijt}Gijt​ (p. 237), in the discrete sense of nondecreasing first differences on Z\mathbb ZZ.
  3. The newsvendor solution (10.19). S^ijt=max⁡(S~ijt,s0)\hat S_{ijt} = \max(\tilde S_{ijt}, s^0)S^ijt​=max(S~ijt​,s0) with s0s^0s0 the least integer such that P(Xijt≤s0)>bij/(bij+hij)P(X_{ijt} \le s^0) > b_{ij}/(b_{ij}+h_{ij})P(Xijt​≤s0)>bij​/(bij​+hij​).
  4. Monotonicity (10.20). S^ij(t−1)≤S^ijt\hat S_{ij(t-1)} \le \hat S_{ijt}S^ij(t−1)​≤S^ijt​ on [Tijr,Tijr+Ti0][T^r_{ij}, T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}][Tijr​,Tijr​+Ti0​].
  5. Theorem 16, corrected (p. 244). In every optimal solution of ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​, S~ijt≤Sijt∗\tilde S_{ijt} \le S^*_{ijt}S~ijt​≤Sijt∗​. Writing Mjt=max⁡k∈[Tije,t](S^ijk−S~ijk)M_{jt} = \max_{k \in [T^e_{ij}, t]}(\hat S_{ijk} - \tilde S_{ijk})Mjt​=maxk∈[Tije​,t]​(S^ijk​−S~ijk​), also Sijt∗≤S~ijt+MjtS^*_{ijt} \le \tilde S_{ijt} + M_{jt}Sijt∗​≤S~ijt​+Mjt​, provided Tijr=Tije+1T^r_{ij} = T^e_{ij} + 1Tijr​=Tije​+1 or t<Tije+Ti0t < T^e_{ij} + T_{i0}t<Tije​+Ti0​.

Two supporting items state that SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ and ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ have optimal solutions. A third, theorem16_counterexample, exhibits an instance in which Theorem 16's upper bound, as printed, fails.

Significance

Theorem 15 is what allows the book (pp. 238–239) to rewrite SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ with 0–1 variables δijtk\delta_{ijtk}δijtk​ indicating Sijt=kS_{ijt} = kSijt​=k. Only kkk between S~ij(Tijr−1)\tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)}S~ij(Tijr​−1)​ and S^ijt\hat S_{ijt}S^ijt​ is needed, so the number of variables is governed by the newsvendor quantities rather than by the total depot supply. Theorem 16 plays the same role for the model with expediting. Both bounds also justify the greedy heuristics of Sections 10.4.3 and 10.5.3. Those heuristics never raise a base's stock above its newsvendor level.

The book proves both theorems in half a page each by an exchange argument. This mission produces machine-checked versions and, in doing so, settles the exact scope of Theorem 16. As printed it is false. With Tijr≥Tije+2T^r_{ij} \ge T^e_{ij} + 2Tijr​≥Tije​+2, an expedited shipment in the last decision period can be the only way to cover a later period's demand, and the optimal plan then overstocks an earlier period. The mission states the corrected theorem and the counterexample; the counterexample was checked in Lean during drafting. None of the chapter's results has been formalized before, as far as the platform's catalogue shows.

Difficulty

The central step is the exchange. Take the first period kkk in which an optimal plan overshoots its bound, and delay by one period one unit that arrives at kkk. This must be shown feasible, to change only SijkS_{ijk}Sijk​, and to lower the objective strictly. That in turn needs strict decrease of a convex function to the right of its largest minimizer, and an argument for the last period, where there is no later period to delay into. The indexing is heavy: two lead times, truncated sums min⁡(t−Tije,Ti0)\min(t - T^e_{ij}, T_{i0})min(t−Tije​,Ti0​), and cumulative constraints across bases.

The first idea, that a plan above the newsvendor level can always be improved by shipping less, fails. Shipping less changes the stock in every later period too, and later periods may need the unit. The bound follows only from a delay that affects exactly one period. For ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ even such a delay is sometimes unavailable, which is where the book's Theorem 16 breaks.

Formalization scope

  • One item at a time: ItemModel J Ω P bundles the data of one item with the cumulative demands on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P), [IsProbabilityMeasure P]. Bases form a Fintype. Periods are ℕ. Stock levels and supplies are ℤ, since net inventory may be negative. Shipments are functions J → ℕ → ℕ, so nonnegativity and integrality are built in. Costs are in ℝ.
  • GGG and QQQ are defined from the demand as in the book: Bochner integrals of (S−X)+(S - X)^+(S−X)+ and (X−S)+(X - S)^+(X−S)+, and a tsum for QQQ. The item model requires finite means and convergence of the series for QQQ at every stock level, so that no integral or sum takes Lean's junk value 000.
  • "The largest optimal solution" is the predicate IsLargestCNSolution (feasible, minimizing, and above every feasible minimizer). Theorems take S^\hat SS^ as a function satisfying it. Milestone (10.19) shows it exists.
  • "An optimal solution" means a feasible plan with objective at most that of every feasible plan. The theorems hold for every optimal plan.
  • Pinned conventions and additions. The following are not written in the book: hij,bij>0h_{ij}, b_{ij} > 0hij​,bij​>0 and eij≥0e_{ij} \ge 0eij​≥0; nonnegative, nondecreasing depot supply; nondecreasing base supply (used in the book's proof of Theorem 16); finite mean demand; convergence of QQQ's series. (10.19) is read with the critical fractile "least sss with F(s)>b/(b+h)F(s) > b/(b+h)F(s)>b/(b+h)", the book's ⌈F−1⌉\lceil F^{-1}\rceil⌈F−1⌉/⌊F−1⌋\lfloor F^{-1}\rfloor⌊F−1⌋ with ties broken upward. Theorem 16 carries the proviso "Tijr=Tije+1T^r_{ij} = T^e_{ij} + 1Tijr​=Tije​+1 or t<Tije+Ti0t < T^e_{ij} + T_{i0}t<Tije​+Ti0​". Separability is stated both for optimal plans and for optimal values.
  • Ruled out. The feasible sets of SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ and ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ impose no upper bound on the cumulative stock, and S^\hat SS^ is defined from GGG alone, never from the allocation problem. The bounds are therefore not true by definition.
  • Omitted. The LP reformulations (10.22)–(10.28) and (10.45)–(10.52) and the integrality of their relaxations, which the book asserts with a reference to [68]; the greedy algorithms and their optimality conditions (asserted); the book's claim that QijQ_{ij}Qij​ is strictly increasing (p. 238), which fails when P(Xijt≤S)=0P(X_{ijt} \le S) = 0P(Xijt​≤S)=0 beyond the horizon and is not needed; the dynamic program of Section 10.3 and the repair model of Section 10.6.
  • The discrete-convexity and newsvendor facts are reusable for any single-location inventory model on Z\mathbb ZZ. Contributions are welcome on the convexity lemmas, the critical-fractile characterization, and a reusable exchange lemma for cumulative-shipment models.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2005, Chapter 10, pp. 225–246. DOI 10.1007/b138879
  • K. J. Arrow, T. Harris, J. Marschak, "Optimal inventory policy", Econometrica 19(3), 1951, 250–272 (the newsvendor critical fractile). DOI 10.2307/1906813
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Algebra·Captain: Lucas

Liouville's theorem (differential algebra)Textbook

Motivation

Some elementary functions, such as e−x2e^{-x^2}e−x2, sin⁡(x)/x\sin(x)/xsin(x)/x and xxx^xxx, have antiderivatives that cannot be written as elementary functions. Liouville's theorem, formulated by Joseph Liouville between 1833 and 1841, is the algebraic statement that explains when an elementary antiderivative can exist: if a function has an elementary antiderivative at all, then that antiderivative lies in the differential field of the function, plus finitely many logarithms. The theorem underlies the Risch algorithm for symbolic integration, which relies on it to find any elementary antiderivative.

Setting

A differential field is a field FFF together with a derivation D:F→FD : F \to FD:F→F, i.e. an additive map satisfying D(ab)=a Db+b DaD(ab) = a\,Db + b\,DaD(ab)=aDb+bDa. Its constants form the subfield

Con⁡(F)={f∈F:Df=0}.\operatorname{Con}(F) = \{ f \in F : Df = 0 \}.Con(F)={f∈F:Df=0}.

Let G⊇FG \supseteq FG⊇F be a differential field extension (the derivation of GGG restricts to that of FFF).

  • GGG is a logarithmic extension of FFF if G=F(t)G = F(t)G=F(t) with ttt transcendental over FFF and Dt=Ds/sDt = Ds/sDt=Ds/s for some nonzero s∈Fs \in Fs∈F (so ttt behaves like log⁡s\log slogs).
  • GGG is an exponential extension of FFF if G=F(t)G = F(t)G=F(t) with ttt transcendental over FFF and Dt/t=DsDt/t = DsDt/t=Ds for some s∈Fs \in Fs∈F (so ttt behaves like ese^{s}es).
  • GGG is an elementary differential extension of FFF if there is a finite chain of subfields F=K0⊆K1⊆⋯⊆Km=GF = K_0 \subseteq K_1 \subseteq \cdots \subseteq K_m = GF=K0​⊆K1​⊆⋯⊆Km​=G in which every step Ki+1=Ki(ti)K_{i+1} = K_i(t_i)Ki+1​=Ki​(ti​) is algebraic, logarithmic or exponential.

The running example is C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x), the field of rational functions in one variable with the standard derivative d/dxd/dxd/dx.

Formalization targets

Goal: Liouville's theorem

Let F⊆GF \subseteq GF⊆G be differential fields of characteristic zero with Con⁡(F)=Con⁡(G)\operatorname{Con}(F) = \operatorname{Con}(G)Con(F)=Con(G), and let GGG be an elementary differential extension of FFF. If f∈Ff \in Ff∈F and g∈Gg \in Gg∈G satisfy Dg=fDg = fDg=f, then there are n≥0n \ge 0n≥0, constants c1,…,cn∈Con⁡(F)c_1, \dots, c_n \in \operatorname{Con}(F)c1​,…,cn​∈Con(F) and nonzero f1,…,fn∈Ff_1, \dots, f_n \in Ff1​,…,fn​∈F, and s∈Fs \in Fs∈F with

f=c1Df1f1+⋯+cnDfnfn+Ds.f = c_1 \frac{Df_1}{f_1} + \cdots + c_n \frac{Df_n}{f_n} + Ds.f=c1​f1​Df1​​+⋯+cn​fn​Dfn​​+Ds.

Milestones from the article

  1. The constants Con⁡(F)\operatorname{Con}(F)Con(F) form a subfield of FFF.
  2. C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x) carries a (unique) derivation extending the formal derivative of polynomials.
  3. Con⁡(C(x))=C\operatorname{Con}(\mathbb{C}(x)) = \mathbb{C}Con(C(x))=C.
  4. 1/x1/x1/x has no antiderivative in C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x).
  5. The antiderivatives ln⁡x+C\ln x + Clnx+C of 1/x1/x1/x exist in the logarithmic extension C(x,ln⁡x)\mathbb{C}(x, \ln x)C(x,lnx).
  6. 1/(x2+1)1/(x^2+1)1/(x2+1) has no antiderivative in C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x).
  7. 1x2+1=12i Duu\displaystyle \frac{1}{x^2+1} = \frac{1}{2i}\,\frac{Du}{u}x2+11​=2i1​uDu​ with u=1+ix1−ixu = \frac{1+ix}{1-ix}u=1−ix1+ix​, i.e. tan⁡−1x=12iln⁡1+ix1−ix\tan^{-1} x = \frac{1}{2i}\ln\frac{1+ix}{1-ix}tan−1x=2i1​ln1−ix1+ix​ has the form required by the theorem.

Significance

The theorem reduces the question of whether an integral is elementary to a question about the base differential field. That reduction is what makes decision procedures for integration in finite terms (the Risch algorithm) possible, and it is the standard route to proving that e−x2e^{-x^2}e−x2, sin⁡(x)/x\sin(x)/xsin(x)/x or xxx^xxx have no elementary antiderivative.

The result is classical and proved (Liouville; modern algebraic proof by Rosenlicht; textbook proof in Geddes–Czapor–Labahn, §12.4). Mathlib contains a formalization of the algebraic-extension part of the argument (IsLiouville, isLiouville_of_finiteDimensional in Mathlib/FieldTheory/Differential/Liouville.lean); the logarithmic and exponential steps and the full theorem for elementary extensions are the remaining work.

Difficulty

The algebraic steps can be handled by taking traces. The central difficulty is the transcendental steps: for a logarithmic or exponential generator ttt one must show, by comparing partial-fraction expansions in ttt and degrees in ttt, that an expression of the Liouville form over K(t)K(t)K(t) can be pushed down to one over KKK. This needs the hypothesis that no new constants appear. The induction must also track how constants and logarithmic derivatives behave along the whole chain.

Formalization scope

A differential field is a Mathlib Field with a Differential instance (a derivation over Z\mathbb{Z}Z, written a′a'a′); the extension F⊆GF \subseteq GF⊆G is an Algebra F G with DifferentialAlgebra F G, i.e. DDD commutes with the embedding. The chain of the elementary extension is a sequence of IntermediateField F G, starting at ⊥\bot⊥ and ending at ⊤\top⊤. Each step adjoins a single element, which is algebraic, logarithmic, or exponential over the previous field, and every derivative is computed in GGG. Characteristic zero is assumed (CharZero F). The article does not state it, but it is the standing convention of the theorem in its standard sources. Con⁡(F)=Con⁡(G)\operatorname{Con}(F) = \operatorname{Con}(G)Con(F)=Con(G) is stated as the equality of the image of Con⁡(F)\operatorname{Con}(F)Con(F) with Con⁡(G)\operatorname{Con}(G)Con(G). In the conclusion, the fif_ifi​ are required to be nonzero, so the quotients Dfi/fiDf_i/f_iDfi​/fi​ carry no division-by-zero junk.

For the C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x) examples, C(x)\mathbb{C}(x)C(x) is Mathlib's RatFunc ℂ. Mathlib does not provide its derivative, so the examples take an arbitrary derivation satisfying IsStandardDerivation (it agrees with the formal derivative on polynomials). Milestone 2 asserts that exactly one such derivation exists, so the examples are not vacuous.

Selected references

  • J. Liouville, Premier / Second mémoire sur la détermination des intégrales dont la valeur est algébrique, J. École Polytechnique XIV (1833), 124–193.
  • M. Rosenlicht, Integration in finite terms, Amer. Math. Monthly 79 (1972), 963–972. https://doi.org/10.2307/2318066
  • K. O. Geddes, S. R. Czapor, G. Labahn, Algorithms for Computer Algebra, Kluwer, 1992, §12.4.
  • Wikipedia, Liouville's theorem (differential algebra), oldid 1349223559.
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Number Theory·Captain: Lucas

Chebotarëv's Density Theorem (Stevenhagen–Lenstra 1996)Research Paper

Motivation

Given a monic polynomial fff with integer coefficients, one can reduce it modulo each prime ppp and factor it over the finite field Fp\mathbb F_pFp​. The way fff factors changes with ppp, and the question of how often each factorization pattern occurs has a precise answer: Chebotarëv's density theorem (1922). It is the common generalization of Dirichlet's theorem on primes in arithmetic progressions (1837) and a theorem of Frobenius (1880, published 1896), and it underlies a large part of algebraic number theory, for example the fact that a Galois extension of a number field is determined by the set of primes that split completely in it. This mission follows the elementary exposition of P. Stevenhagen and H. W. Lenstra, Jr. (Math. Intelligencer 18 (1996)), which states all three theorems over Q\mathbb QQ with a minimum of terminology.

Timeline.

  • 1837 — Dirichlet: primes are equidistributed (in analytic density) over the invertible residue classes modulo mmm.
  • 1880/1896 — Frobenius: the density of primes with a given decomposition type of fff modulo ppp equals the proportion of Galois group elements with that cycle pattern; he conjectures the sharper statement for conjugacy classes.
  • 1896 — de la Vallée-Poussin: Dirichlet's theorem for natural density.
  • 1922/1925 — Chebotarëv proves Frobenius's conjecture, without class field theory.
  • 1935 — Deuring's proof via Artin reciprocity, now the textbook route.

Setting

Let f∈Z[X]f\in\mathbb Z[X]f∈Z[X] be monic of degree nnn with nonzero discriminant Δ(f)\Delta(f)Δ(f), so that fff has nnn distinct complex zeros α1,…,αn\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_nα1​,…,αn​. Let K=Q(α1,…,αn)K=\mathbb Q(\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_n)K=Q(α1​,…,αn​) be its splitting field and G=Gal(K/Q)G=\mathrm{Gal}(K/\mathbb Q)G=Gal(K/Q) its Galois group. Every σ∈G\sigma\in Gσ∈G permutes the zeros; the lengths of the cycles (including cycles of length 1) form the cycle pattern of σ\sigmaσ, a partition of nnn.

For a prime p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f), the degrees of the irreducible factors of f mod pf \bmod pfmodp over Fp\mathbb F_pFp​ form the decomposition type of fff modulo ppp, again a partition of nnn.

A Frobenius substitution of ppp is an element σ∈G\sigma\in Gσ∈G such that, for some prime ideal Q\mathfrak QQ of the ring of integers OK\mathcal O_KOK​ lying over ppp,

σ(x)≡xp(modQ)for all x∈OK.\sigma(x)\equiv x^p \pmod{\mathfrak Q}\qquad\text{for all }x\in\mathcal O_K .σ(x)≡xp(modQ)for all x∈OK​.

For p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f) these elements form a single conjugacy class of GGG, written σp\sigma_pσp​.

A set SSS of primes has (analytic, or Dirichlet) density δ\deltaδ if

∑p∈Sp−slog⁡1s−1⟶δ(s↓1),\frac{\sum_{p\in S}p^{-s}}{\log\frac{1}{s-1}}\longrightarrow\delta\qquad(s\downarrow 1),logs−11​∑p∈S​p−s​⟶δ(s↓1),

and natural density δ\deltaδ if #{p≤x:p∈S}/#{p≤x}→δ\#\{p\le x:p\in S\}/\#\{p\le x\}\to\delta#{p≤x:p∈S}/#{p≤x}→δ as x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Chebotarëv's density theorem

For every conjugacy class CCC of GGG,

the set {p prime:p∤Δ(f), σp∈C} has analytic density #C#G.\text{the set }\{p \text{ prime}: p\nmid\Delta(f),\ \sigma_p\in C\}\text{ has analytic density }\frac{\#C}{\#G}.the set {p prime:p∤Δ(f), σp​∈C} has analytic density #G#C​.

Milestones

  1. Theorem of Dirichlet: for m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and gcd⁡(a,m)=1\gcd(a,m)=1gcd(a,m)=1, the primes p≡a(modm)p\equiv a \pmod mp≡a(modm) have density 1/φ(m)1/\varphi(m)1/φ(m).
  2. A set of primes with natural density δ\deltaδ has analytic density δ\deltaδ.
  3. Galois theory of finite fields: for a squarefree g∈Fp[X]g\in\mathbb F_p[X]g∈Fp​[X], the cycle pattern of x↦xpx\mapsto x^px↦xp on the zeros of ggg equals the decomposition type of ggg.
  4. For p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f), the Frobenius substitutions of ppp form exactly one conjugacy class of GGG.
  5. For p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f), the cycle pattern of σp\sigma_pσp​ equals the decomposition type of fff modulo ppp.
  6. For f=Xm−1f=X^m-1f=Xm−1 and p∤mp\nmid mp∤m, σp(ζ)=ζp\sigma_p(\zeta)=\zeta^pσp​(ζ)=ζp for every primitive mmm-th root of unity ζ\zetaζ; that is, σp\sigma_pσp​ corresponds to p mod mp \bmod mpmodm under G≅(Z/mZ)×G\cong(\mathbb Z/m\mathbb Z)^\timesG≅(Z/mZ)×.
  7. Theorem of Frobenius: the primes p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f) for which fff has a given decomposition type ttt have density #{σ∈G:cycle pattern t}/#G\#\{\sigma\in G:\text{cycle pattern }t\}/\#G#{σ∈G:cycle pattern t}/#G.

Significance

Chebotarëv's theorem shows that every conjugacy class of the Galois group occurs as a Frobenius class for infinitely many primes, with a predictable frequency. Its standard consequences include: the Frobenius elements are equidistributed; a Galois extension is determined by its completely split primes; if fff has a zero modulo almost every prime then fff is linear or reducible; prime ideals are equidistributed over ideal classes. The theorem is the first step in many arguments in arithmetic geometry (e.g. Serre's work on ℓ\ellℓ-adic representations).

The theorem is classical and proved; this mission is about formalizing it. Mathlib contains Frobenius elements in Galois extensions of Dedekind domains and Dirichlet's theorem in the form "infinitely many primes in each coprime residue class", but, to our knowledge, neither the density form of Dirichlet's theorem nor Frobenius's or Chebotarëv's density theorem.

Difficulty

The Galois-theoretic parts (milestones 3–6) are standard but require connecting Frobenius elements in OK\mathcal O_KOK​ with factorization of fff modulo ppp, including the fact that p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f) forces ppp to be unramified in KKK. The analytic core is harder: one needs Dedekind zeta functions and LLL-functions of number fields and their behaviour at s=1s=1s=1. The reduction of the general case to the cyclotomic case (Chebotarëv's "crossing" with cyclotomic extensions) needs the density statement over an arbitrary number field as base, not only over Q\mathbb QQ; in particular, the statement over Q\mathbb QQ alone cannot be proved by induction on itself.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace ChebotarevDensity and share one definition file.

  • KKK is Mathlib's SplittingField of fff viewed in Q[X]\mathbb Q[X]Q[X]; GGG is Polynomial.Gal; Δ(f)\Delta(f)Δ(f) is Mathlib's Polynomial.discr.
  • A Frobenius substitution is expressed with Mathlib's IsArithFrobAt at some prime ideal of OK\mathcal O_KOK​ containing ppp; "σp∈C\sigma_p\in Cσp​∈C" means that some Frobenius substitution of ppp lies in CCC (for p∤Δ(f)p\nmid\Delta(f)p∤Δ(f) this is equivalent to all of them lying in CCC, by milestone 4).
  • The cycle pattern is Equiv.Perm.partition of the permutation induced on the complex zeros of fff; it includes fixed points.
  • The decomposition type is the multiset of degrees of the normalized (monic) irreducible factors of f mod pf \bmod pfmodp.
  • Analytic density uses ∑′p−s\sum' p^{-s}∑′p−s over the primes of SSS and the limit s→1+s\to1^+s→1+ within (1,∞)(1,\infty)(1,∞); natural density compares prime counts up to x∈Nx\in\mathbb Nx∈N.
  • The hypotheses Δ(f)≠0\Delta(f)\neq0Δ(f)=0 and "fff monic" are those of the source; the theorems are not vacuous, since e.g. f=Xm−1f=X^m-1f=Xm−1 satisfies them.

Welcome contributions: Dedekind zeta functions and Hecke LLL-functions at s=1s=1s=1, the density form of Dirichlet's theorem, unramifiedness of primes not dividing the discriminant, and the general number-field version of the theorem.

Selected references

  • P. Stevenhagen, H. W. Lenstra, Jr., Chebotarëv and his density theorem, Math. Intelligencer 18 (1996), no. 2, 26–37. doi:10.1007/BF03027290
  • N. Tschebotareff, Die Bestimmung der Dichtigkeit einer Menge von Primzahlen, welche zu einer gegebenen Substitutionsklasse gehören, Math. Ann. 95 (1925), 191–228. doi:10.1007/BF01206606
  • S. Lang, Algebraic Number Theory, Addison-Wesley, 1970, Chap. VIII.
  • J. Neukirch, Class Field Theory, Springer, 1986, Chap. V.
  • Chebotarev density theorem, Wikipedia. link
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Algebraic GeometryNumber Theory·Captain: Lucas

Lam–Litt conjecture: algebraicity and integrality of solutions to algebraic ODEsOpen Problem

Motivation

A classical way to recognize an algebraic function is through the arithmetic of its Taylor coefficients. Eisenstein's theorem (1852) says that if a power series f∈Q[[z]]f\in\mathbb{Q}[[z]]f∈Q[[z]] is algebraic over Q[z]\mathbb{Q}[z]Q[z], only finitely many primes occur in the denominators of its coefficients. The converse fails in general: many transcendental power series have integer coefficients. Lam and Litt (arXiv:2501.13175) conjecture that the converse does hold for power series that solve an algebraic differential equation at a non-singular point, and that even a weak control on denominators — primes ppp may appear, but only after roughly ω(p)≫p\omega(p)\gg pω(p)≫p coefficients — already forces algebraicity.

For linear differential equations, the conjecture is a strengthening of the Grothendieck–Katz ppp-curvature conjecture, one of the central open problems about algebraic solutions of linear differential equations (arXiv:2501.13175). The bounded-denominator form is Problem 1 on Litt's list of open problems (problemsilike.com/1).

Timeline.

  • 1852 — Eisenstein: algebraic power series over Q\mathbb{Q}Q have bounded denominators (implication (1)⇒(2) below).
  • 1970s — Grothendieck and Katz: the ppp-curvature conjecture for linear differential equations.
  • 2025 — Lam and Litt formulate the conjecture for (possibly non-linear) algebraic differential equations and prove it for many equations and initial conditions of algebro-geometric interest, including Picard–Fuchs equations at initial conditions corresponding to cycle classes, and isomonodromy equations such as Painlevé VI and the Schlesinger system at initial conditions corresponding to Picard–Fuchs equations (arXiv:2501.13175).

Setting

Let f=∑k≥0akzk∈Q[[z]]f=\sum_{k\ge0}a_kz^k\in\mathbb{Q}[[z]]f=∑k≥0​ak​zk∈Q[[z]] be a formal power series with rational coefficients and write f(i)f^{(i)}f(i) for its iii-th formal derivative. Let g∈Q(z,y0,…,yn−1)g\in\mathbb{Q}(z,y_0,\dots,y_{n-1})g∈Q(z,y0​,…,yn−1​) be a rational function in n+1n+1n+1 variables. The series fff solves the algebraic ODE defined by ggg if

f(n)(z)=g(z,f(z),f′(z),…,f(n−1)(z))f^{(n)}(z)=g\bigl(z,f(z),f'(z),\dots,f^{(n-1)}(z)\bigr)f(n)(z)=g(z,f(z),f′(z),…,f(n−1)(z))

and ggg is defined at (0,f(0),…,f(n−1)(0))\bigl(0,f(0),\dots,f^{(n-1)}(0)\bigr)(0,f(0),…,f(n−1)(0)). Concretely, g=p/qg=p/qg=p/q for polynomials p,qp,qp,q with q(0,f(0),…,f(n−1)(0))≠0q\bigl(0,f(0),\dots,f^{(n-1)}(0)\bigr)\neq0q(0,f(0),…,f(n−1)(0))=0 and f(n)⋅q(z,f,…,f(n−1))=p(z,f,…,f(n−1))f^{(n)}\cdot q(z,f,\dots,f^{(n-1)})=p(z,f,\dots,f^{(n-1)})f(n)⋅q(z,f,…,f(n−1))=p(z,f,…,f(n−1)).

For N∈NN\in\mathbb{N}N∈N, Z[1/N]⊆Q\mathbb{Z}[1/N]\subseteq\mathbb{Q}Z[1/N]⊆Q is the subring generated by 1/N1/N1/N. For a function ω\omegaω from the primes to Z\mathbb{Z}Z, the coefficients of fff are ω\omegaω-integral if for every prime ppp the numbers a0,…,aω(p)a_0,\dots,a_{\omega(p)}a0​,…,aω(p)​ lie in Z(p)\mathbb{Z}_{(p)}Z(p)​ (denominators prime to ppp); ω\omegaω is superlinear if ω(p)/p→∞\omega(p)/p\to\inftyω(p)/p→∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Lam–Litt conjecture

For fff solving an algebraic ODE as above, the following are equivalent:

(1) f is algebraic over Q[z];(2) ∃N, ∀k, ak∈Z[1/N];(3) ∃ ω superlinear with (ak) ω-integral.\text{(1) } f \text{ is algebraic over } \mathbb{Q}[z];\qquad \text{(2) } \exists N,\ \forall k,\ a_k\in\mathbb{Z}[1/N];\qquad \text{(3) } \exists\,\omega \text{ superlinear with } (a_k) \ \omega\text{-integral}.(1) f is algebraic over Q[z];(2) ∃N, ∀k, ak​∈Z[1/N];(3) ∃ω superlinear with (ak​) ω-integral.

Milestones

  • (1)⇒(2), Eisenstein's theorem (no ODE hypothesis needed).
  • (2)⇒(3), elementary (no ODE hypothesis needed).
  • (3)⇒(2), open.
  • (2)⇒(1), open; Litt's Problem 1.

Together the four milestones imply the goal; the last two are the open content of the conjecture.

Significance

A proof would give an arithmetic criterion for algebraicity of solutions of arbitrary algebraic differential equations, and, for linear equations, would imply the Grothendieck–Katz ppp-curvature conjecture (arXiv:2501.13175). Lam and Litt draw algebro-geometric consequences from the cases they prove.

For formalization: the conjecture is open, so the goal and the two open milestones are research targets. Eisenstein's theorem is a classical result; formalizing it is concrete, self-contained work. The implication (2)⇒(3) is elementary. The cases proved by Lam and Litt are candidates for further milestones.

Difficulty

Integrality of coefficients alone does not detect algebraicity: there are transcendental power series with integer coefficients that satisfy linear differential equations, such as ∑k(2kk)2zk\sum_k\binom{2k}{k}^2z^k∑k​(k2k​)2zk. Its equation is singular at z=0z=0z=0, which the non-singularity hypothesis on ggg excludes; the conjecture asserts that at non-singular points such examples cannot occur. Even for linear equations the statement contains the Grothendieck–Katz conjecture, which is open in general.

Formalization scope

  • Power series are PowerSeries ℚ with the formal derivative; rational functions are the fraction field of MvPolynomial (Fin (n + 1)) ℚ, where variable 0 is zzz and variable i + 1 is f(i)f^{(i)}f(i).
  • The ODE hypothesis is existential: some representation g=p/qg=p/qg=p/q with qqq nonzero at the initial point and f(n)q(… )=p(… )f^{(n)}q(\dots)=p(\dots)f(n)q(…)=p(…) as power series. This non-singularity requirement is essential and must not be dropped.
  • Algebraicity is IsAlgebraic (Polynomial ℚ) f, i.e. over Q[z]\mathbb{Q}[z]Q[z] (equivalently over Q(z)\mathbb{Q}(z)Q(z)).
  • Z[1/N]\mathbb{Z}[1/N]Z[1/N] is the subalgebra of Q\mathbb{Q}Q generated by 1/N1/N1/N; since 1/0=01/0=01/0=0 in Lean, N=0N=0N=0 gives Z\mathbb{Z}Z.
  • ω\omegaω takes values in Z\mathbb{Z}Z; negative values impose no condition at that prime. Superlinearity is the limit ω(p)/p→∞\omega(p)/p\to\inftyω(p)/p→∞ along the primes.
  • The goal is a List.TFAE of the three conditions.

Useful infrastructure: formal derivatives and substitution for power series, algebraic power series and their coefficient arithmetic (Eisenstein), and ppp-adic valuations of coefficients. Formalizations of Eisenstein's theorem and of the special cases proved by Lam and Litt are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. H. J. Lam, D. Litt, Algebraicity and integrality of solutions to differential equations, arXiv preprint, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.13175
  • D. Litt, Problem 1, problems list. https://www.problemsilike.com/1
  • G. Eisenstein, Über eine allgemeine Eigenschaft der Reihen-Entwicklungen aller algebraischen Funktionen, Bericht der Königl. Preuss. Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin, 1852.
  • Formal Conjectures project, FormalConjectures/LittProblems/1.lean. https://github.com/google-deepmind/formal-conjectures
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Mathematical LogicTopology·Captain: Lucas

Acharjee–Gogoi: Cognitive-Consequence Spaces and the Limit of Human IntelligenceResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1998 Smale listed eighteen problems for the twenty-first century; the eighteenth asks: What are the limits of intelligence, both artificial and human? (Smale 1998). The paper of Acharjee and Gogoi (arXiv:2310.10792) proposes a mathematical model of a mind, the cognitive-consequence space, built from a Tarski consequence operator, and claims that two theorems about this model (its Theorems 3.3 and 3.4) show that "human intelligence is limitless" (Discussion, p. 22; Conclusion, p. 23).

This mission records that model and its results in Lean 4 exactly as stated, so that each claim becomes a checkable statement: proved, or refuted, by the verifier rather than by argument.

Setting

A cognitive-consequence space is a set CCC of mental representations (thoughts) with a consequence operator Cn:P(C)→P(C)\mathrm{Cn} : \mathcal P(C) \to \mathcal P(C)Cn:P(C)→P(C) and an implication connective X⇒YX \Rightarrow YX⇒Y satisfying Tarski's axioms as listed in the paper (p. 5):

  1. CCC is countable;
  2. A⊆Cn(A)A \subseteq \mathrm{Cn}(A)A⊆Cn(A);
  3. A⊆B⇒Cn(A)⊆Cn(B)A \subseteq B \Rightarrow \mathrm{Cn}(A) \subseteq \mathrm{Cn}(B)A⊆B⇒Cn(A)⊆Cn(B);
  4. Cn(Cn(A))=Cn(A)\mathrm{Cn}(\mathrm{Cn}(A)) = \mathrm{Cn}(A)Cn(Cn(A))=Cn(A);
  5. if X∈Cn(A)X \in \mathrm{Cn}(A)X∈Cn(A) then X∈Cn(B)X \in \mathrm{Cn}(B)X∈Cn(B) for some finite B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A;
  6. if Y∈Cn(A∪{X})Y \in \mathrm{Cn}(A \cup \{X\})Y∈Cn(A∪{X}) then (X⇒Y)∈Cn(A)(X \Rightarrow Y) \in \mathrm{Cn}(A)(X⇒Y)∈Cn(A);

together with the paper's standing assumption Cn(∅)≠∅\mathrm{Cn}(\varnothing) \neq \varnothingCn(∅)=∅ (p. 5, after Definition 3.2).

A set AAA is deductive if Cn(A)=A\mathrm{Cn}(A) = ACn(A)=A. The cognitive-consequence topology is

τ={A⊆C:Cn(C∖A)=C∖A},\tau = \{A \subseteq C : \mathrm{Cn}(C \setminus A) = C \setminus A\},τ={A⊆C:Cn(C∖A)=C∖A},

and members of τ\tauτ are consequence-wise open (CWO). The cognitive closure Cl□(A)\mathrm{Cl}^{\square}(A)Cl□(A) is the intersection of all deductive sets containing AAA.

Separately, a cognitive similarity distance is a function Cog:C×C→[0,1]\mathrm{Cog} : C \times C \to [0,1]Cog:C×C→[0,1] together with a relation x≈yx \approx yx≈y ("xxx and yyy cognitively coincide") such that Cog(x,y)=0  ⟺  x≈y\mathrm{Cog}(x,y) = 0 \iff x \approx yCog(x,y)=0⟺x≈y, Cog\mathrm{Cog}Cog is symmetric, x≈z⇒Cog(x,y)=Cog(z,y)x \approx z \Rightarrow \mathrm{Cog}(x,y) = \mathrm{Cog}(z,y)x≈z⇒Cog(x,y)=Cog(z,y), and the triangle inequality holds. A sequence of thoughts (xn)(x_n)(xn​) converges to xxx if for every ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon \in (0,1)ε∈(0,1) we have Cog(x,xn)<ε\mathrm{Cog}(x, x_n) < \varepsilonCog(x,xn​)<ε for all large nnn.

Formalization targets

Goal: "human intelligence is limitless" (Theorems 3.3 and 3.4)

For every cognitive-consequence space,

(∃f∈C ∀A∈τ, f∉A) ∧ (∃f∈C ∃A∈τ, f∈A).\Bigl(\exists f \in C\ \forall A \in \tau,\ f \notin A\Bigr) \ \wedge\ \Bigl(\exists f \in C\ \exists A \in \tau,\ f \in A\Bigr).(∃f∈C ∀A∈τ, f∈/A) ∧ (∃f∈C ∃A∈τ, f∈A).

Milestones

Theorems 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7 and Corollary 3.5 (the topology τ\tauτ and the cognitive closure), Theorems 3.8 and 3.12 (cognitive limits), Theorem 4.3 (the filter fdf_dfd​) and Theorem 5.1 (Gödel's incompleteness black hole).

Significance

The paper presents the goal as its answer to the human-intelligence half of Smale's eighteenth problem. A machine-checked verdict on the goal settles whether that conclusion follows from the paper's own axioms. The milestones are the paper's structural results about τ\tauτ, cognitive closure and cognitive limits.

Status: to the best of current knowledge none of these results has a published machine-checked proof. The first conjunct of the goal (Theorem 3.3) follows from the standing assumption Cn(∅)≠∅\mathrm{Cn}(\varnothing) \neq \varnothingCn(∅)=∅. The second conjunct (Theorem 3.4) is not implied by the listed axioms as formalized: the consequence operator with Cn(A)=C\mathrm{Cn}(A) = CCn(A)=C for every AAA, on a one-point language, satisfies all of them and has τ={∅}\tau = \{\varnothing\}τ={∅}. The goal is therefore expected to be resolved by a disproof.

Difficulty

The content of the goal is the existence of a nonempty CWO set, equivalently of a deductive set different from CCC (a consistent theory). The paper's argument for Theorem 3.4 derives ⋂iAi=∅\bigcap_i A_i = \varnothing⋂i​Ai​=∅ and calls this a contradiction; nothing in the axioms forbids it.

Formalization scope

  • CogCons.CognitiveConsequenceSpace C bundles Cn\mathrm{Cn}Cn, the connective imp, axioms (i)–(vi) and Cn(∅)≠∅\mathrm{Cn}(\varnothing) \neq \varnothingCn(∅)=∅. The syntax σ\sigmaσ and interpretation III of the paper are not modelled beyond imp.
  • The paper also asserts Cn(C)≠C\mathrm{Cn}(C) \neq CCn(C)=C (p. 5). This contradicts axiom (ii), since C⊆Cn(C)⊆CC \subseteq \mathrm{Cn}(C) \subseteq CC⊆Cn(C)⊆C; including it would make every statement vacuously true, so it is omitted. For the same reason the second half of Corollary 3.4 (Cl□(C)≠C\mathrm{Cl}^{\square}(C) \neq CCl□(C)=C) is not included.
  • Theorem 4.4 (the family {A:f∈Cn(A)}\{A : f \in \mathrm{Cn}(A)\}{A:f∈Cn(A)} is a filter) is not included: closure under intersection fails in a four-element model satisfying all the axioms.
  • Results relying on informal notions (the practical topology of Section 2, Theorems 3.9–3.11 and 3.13, Theorems 4.1–4.2, and the "solution space" of Section 5) are not formalized.
  • CogCons.CognitiveSimilarityDistance C is independent of Cn\mathrm{Cn}Cn; sequences are indexed by N\mathbb NN starting at 000; ≈\approx≈ is an arbitrary relation constrained only by the listed axioms.

Selected references

  • S. Acharjee, U. Gogoi, The limit of human intelligence, arXiv:2310.10792v2 [math.GM], 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.10792
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, The Mathematical Intelligencer 20(2), 7–15, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03025291
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Number Theory·Captain: Lucas

Brocard's Problem: n! + 1 = m²Open Problem

Motivation

Brocard's problem asks for all natural numbers nnn such that n!+1n! + 1n!+1 is a perfect square. Henri Brocard raised the question in 1876 and again in 1885, and Srinivasa Ramanujan independently posed it in 1913 in the Journal of the Indian Mathematical Society. Only three solutions are known, and the problem is listed as Erdős problem #398 (erdosproblems.com/398). It is one of the simplest-looking Diophantine equations mixing a multiplicative object (the factorial) with an additive shift, and it is a standard test case for conjectures such as the abc conjecture.

Timeline

  • 1876, 1885 — Brocard asks whether n!+1=m2n! + 1 = m^2n!+1=m2 has solutions other than n=4,5,7n = 4, 5, 7n=4,5,7.
  • 1913 — Ramanujan poses the same question (Question 469, J. Indian Math. Soc.).
  • 1993 — Overholt shows that, conditionally on (a weak form of) the abc conjecture, the equation has only finitely many solutions (Wikipedia summary).
  • 2000 — Berndt and Galway report a computer search finding no solutions other than n=4,5,7n = 4, 5, 7n=4,5,7 for n<109n < 10^9n<109.
  • Later searches — the search bound was extended further (Matson, to 101210^{12}1012; Epstein and Glickman, to 101510^{15}1015), again without new solutions.

No unconditional proof of finiteness is known.

Setting

For a natural number nnn, the factorial is n!=1⋅2⋯nn! = 1 \cdot 2 \cdots nn!=1⋅2⋯n, with 0!=10! = 10!=1. A Brown number pair is a pair (n,m)(n, m)(n,m) of natural numbers with

n!+1=m2.n! + 1 = m^2 .n!+1=m2.

The three known pairs are (4,5)(4, 5)(4,5), (5,11)(5, 11)(5,11) and (7,71)(7, 71)(7,71), since 25=5225 = 5^225=52, 121=112121 = 11^2121=112 and 5041=7125041 = 71^25041=712.

For the conditional milestone, the radical rad⁡(N)\operatorname{rad}(N)rad(N) of a natural number NNN is the product of the distinct primes dividing NNN. The abc conjecture asserts: for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there is Kε>0K_\varepsilon > 0Kε​>0 such that for all positive integers a,b,ca, b, ca,b,c with gcd⁡(a,b)=1\gcd(a, b) = 1gcd(a,b)=1 and a+b=ca + b = ca+b=c,

c<Kε rad⁡(abc)1+ε.c < K_\varepsilon \, \operatorname{rad}(abc)^{1+\varepsilon}.c<Kε​rad(abc)1+ε.

Formalization targets

Goal — Brocard's problem

{(n,m)∈N2:n!+1=m2}={(4,5), (5,11), (7,71)}.\{(n, m) \in \mathbb{N}^2 : n! + 1 = m^2\} = \{(4, 5),\ (5, 11),\ (7, 71)\}.{(n,m)∈N2:n!+1=m2}={(4,5), (5,11), (7,71)}.

This says both that the three known pairs are solutions and that there are no others.

Milestones

  1. Known solutions: 4!+1=524! + 1 = 5^24!+1=52, 5!+1=1125! + 1 = 11^25!+1=112, 7!+1=7127! + 1 = 71^27!+1=712.
  2. Berndt–Galway search bound: if n<109n < 10^9n<109 and n!+1=m2n! + 1 = m^2n!+1=m2, then n∈{4,5,7}n \in \{4, 5, 7\}n∈{4,5,7}.
  3. Overholt (conditional finiteness): if the abc conjecture holds, then {(n,m):n!+1=m2}\{(n, m) : n! + 1 = m^2\}{(n,m):n!+1=m2} is finite.

Significance

A resolution would settle a question open since 1876 and would be one of the rare complete solutions of a factorial Diophantine equation of this kind. The conditional finiteness result is a standard illustration of how the abc conjecture controls equations of the form n!+A=m2n! + A = m^2n!+A=m2.

For the formalization, the known-solutions milestone is a finite computation. The search-bound milestone is a large verified computation; a machine-checked certificate for it would be a reusable artifact. The conditional finiteness milestone formalizes a published argument that assumes the abc conjecture as a hypothesis. The goal itself is an open problem; none of these statements is known to have a machine-checked proof on this platform at the time of drafting.

Difficulty

Congruence obstructions cannot rule out large solutions: for every modulus MMM and every n≥Mn \ge Mn≥M one has n!≡0(modM)n! \equiv 0 \pmod Mn!≡0(modM), so n!+1≡1=12(modM)n! + 1 \equiv 1 = 1^2 \pmod Mn!+1≡1=12(modM) is a square modulo MMM. Local arguments alone therefore cannot close the problem. The known finiteness argument depends on the abc conjecture, which is itself unproved in the standard form used here. Computer searches only give lower bounds on any further solution.

Formalization scope

  • Numbers are natural numbers (ℕ); mmm ranges over N\mathbb{N}N, so the sign of mmm is not an issue. The factorial is Mathlib's Nat.factorial, with 0!=10! = 10!=1.
  • The goal is stated as an equality of sets of ordered pairs in N×N\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{N}N×N, so it cannot be satisfied by proving only one inclusion.
  • The radical is defined as the product over the prime factors of NNN (so rad⁡(0)=rad⁡(1)=1\operatorname{rad}(0) = \operatorname{rad}(1) = 1rad(0)=rad(1)=1; the value at 000 never enters since a,b,c>0a, b, c > 0a,b,c>0).
  • The abc conjecture is a Prop-valued definition used as a hypothesis in the conditional milestone; it is not asserted anywhere. The exponent 1+ε1 + \varepsilon1+ε is a real power.
  • Overholt's published result assumes only a weak form of abc; the milestone assumes the standard form, which implies the weak form, so the milestone is a consequence of the published result.
  • All declarations live in the namespace Brocard.

Selected references

  • H. Brocard, Question 166, Nouv. Corresp. Math. 2 (1876), 287; Nouv. Ann. Math. (3) 4 (1885), 391.
  • S. Ramanujan, Question 469, J. Indian Math. Soc. 5 (1913), 59.
  • M. Overholt, The Diophantine equation n!+1=m2n! + 1 = m^2n!+1=m2, Bull. London Math. Soc. 25 (1993), 104.
  • B. C. Berndt and W. F. Galway, On the Brocard–Ramanujan Diophantine equation n!+1=m2n! + 1 = m^2n!+1=m2, Ramanujan J. 4 (2000), 41–42.
  • Erdős problem #398: https://www.erdosproblems.com/398
  • Brocard's problem, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brocard%27s_problem
  • Formal Conjectures (Google DeepMind): https://github.com/google-deepmind/formal-conjectures
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Linear OptimizationNumerical AnalysisTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: Lucas

Extended Smale's 9th Problem I: no algorithm computes K digits of LP minimisersResearch Paper

Motivation

Linear programming is usually described as "solvable in polynomial time", but that statement is about rational inputs given exactly. In Smale's list of problems for the 21st century (Smale 1998), Problem 9 asks for a polynomial-time algorithm over the reals deciding the feasibility of Ax≥yAx \ge yAx≥y, and Smale explicitly calls for "models which process approximate inputs and which permit round-off computations". Real data such as 2\sqrt 22​, entries of a discrete cosine transform, or even 1/31/31/3 in floating point can only be accessed approximately.

Bastounis, Hansen and Vlačić pose the extended Smale's 9th problem: in a model where the algorithm can only query approximations of the input to any requested accuracy, can one compute minimisers of linear programming, basis pursuit and Lasso to KKK correct digits? Their Main Theorem I (Theorem 3.4) shows that the answer depends on KKK in a sharp way: for a suitable class of well-conditioned, bounded inputs, no algorithm at all (not only no efficient one) produces KKK correct digits, while K−1K-1K−1 digits are computable (but not in bounded time) and K−2K-2K−2 digits are computable in polynomial time.

This mission targets the first, impossibility, half of Theorem 3.4(i) for linear programming.

Setting

Linear program. For A∈Rm×NA \in \mathbb R^{m\times N}A∈Rm×N, y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm and c=1N=(1,…,1)c = \mathbf 1_N=(1,\dots,1)c=1N​=(1,…,1), the solution set is

Ξ(y,A)=argmin⁡x∈RN ⟨x,c⟩subject toAx=y, x≥0.\Xi(y,A) = \operatorname*{argmin}_{x\in\mathbb R^N}\ \langle x, c\rangle \quad\text{subject to}\quad Ax = y,\ x\ge 0 .Ξ(y,A)=x∈RNargmin​ ⟨x,c⟩subject toAx=y, x≥0.

It is a subset of MN=RNM_N = \mathbb R^NMN​=RN with the ℓp\ell^pℓp norm, p∈[1,∞]p\in[1,\infty]p∈[1,∞]. An input is a pair ι=(y,A)\iota = (y,A)ι=(y,A), and the evaluations of ι\iotaι are its coordinates yiy_iyi​ and entries AijA_{ij}Aij​.

Extended model (Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​-information). Let Dn={k2−n:k∈Z}D_n = \{k2^{-n} : k\in\mathbb Z\}Dn​={k2−n:k∈Z}. An oracle representation of ι\iotaι is a family ι~=(ι~j,n)\tilde\iota = (\tilde\iota_{j,n})ι~=(ι~j,n​), indexed by evaluations jjj and accuracies n=1,2,…n = 1,2,\dotsn=1,2,…, with ι~j,n∈Dn+iDn\tilde\iota_{j,n}\in D_n + iD_nι~j,n​∈Dn​+iDn​ and ∣ι~j,n−fj(ι)∣≤2−n|\tilde\iota_{j,n} - f_j(\iota)|\le 2^{-n}∣ι~j,n​−fj​(ι)∣≤2−n. An algorithm must succeed on every oracle representation of every input.

General algorithm. To make impossibility results independent of the machine model, the paper uses general algorithms (Definition 9.3): a map Γ\GammaΓ from inputs to M∪{NH}M\cup\{\mathrm{NH}\}M∪{NH} (NH\mathrm{NH}NH = no output) together with a nonempty set ΛΓ(ι)\Lambda_\Gamma(\iota)ΛΓ​(ι) of evaluations read on ι\iotaι. This set is finite whenever Γ\GammaΓ halts. The output is determined by the values read, and any input that agrees on those values reads the same set. Turing machines and BSS machines with an oracle are special cases; general algorithms can even solve the halting problem.

Error and breakdown epsilon. The error is dist⁡(Γ(ι),Ξ(ι))=inf⁡ξ∈Ξ(ι)d(Γ(ι),ξ)\operatorname{dist}(\Gamma(\iota),\Xi(\iota)) = \inf_{\xi\in\Xi(\iota)} d(\Gamma(\iota),\xi)dist(Γ(ι),Ξ(ι))=infξ∈Ξ(ι)​d(Γ(ι),ξ), with distance ∞\infty∞ from NH\mathrm{NH}NH. The strong breakdown epsilon εBs\varepsilon_B^sεBs​ is the supremum of all ε≥0\varepsilon\ge 0ε≥0 such that every general algorithm has error >ε>\varepsilon>ε on some input (Definition 9.17).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.4(i), deterministic part, for LP

For every integer K≥1K\ge1K≥1, all dimensions 4≤m<N4\le m<N4≤m<N and every p∈[1,∞]p\in[1,\infty]p∈[1,∞] there is a nonempty class Ωm,N\Omega_{m,N}Ωm,N​ of inputs (y,A)(y,A)(y,A) with nonempty solution sets, ∥y∥∞≤2\|y\|_\infty\le 2∥y∥∞​≤2 and ∥A∥max⁡=1\|A\|_{\max}=1∥A∥max​=1, such that

¬ ∃ Γ general algorithm on oracle representations:∀ ι~,  dist⁡ℓp(Γ(ι~), Ξ(ι))≤10−K.\neg\,\exists\,\Gamma\ \text{general algorithm on oracle representations}:\quad \forall\,\tilde\iota,\ \ \operatorname{dist}_{\ell^p}\big(\Gamma(\tilde\iota),\,\Xi(\iota)\big)\le 10^{-K}.¬∃Γ general algorithm on oracle representations:∀ι~,  distℓp​(Γ(ι~),Ξ(ι))≤10−K.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 11.1: the explicit solution sets of the LP inputs (y1e1,A(α,β,m,N))(y_1e_1, A(\alpha,\beta,m,N))(y1​e1​,A(α,β,m,N)).
  2. Proposition 10.5 (ii), deterministic part: two input sequences that converge in evaluation to a common input and whose solutions stay κ\kappaκ apart force εBs≥κ/2\varepsilon_B^s\ge\kappa/2εBs​≥κ/2 for a suitable choice of Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​-information.
  3. §9.6, (i) ⇒ (ii): a lower bound on εBs\varepsilon_B^sεBs​ for one specific Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​-information transfers to the problem with all oracle representations.
  4. Proposition 9.32 (i) (deterministic consequence via Proposition 10.1): εBs>10−K\varepsilon_B^s>10^{-K}εBs​>10−K for LP on a suitable Ωm,N\Omega_{m,N}Ωm,N​.

Significance

The theorem shows that for LP with inexact input, being non-computable in Turing's sense does not rule out a finer complexity theory. The paper builds a "KKK / K−1K-1K−1 / K−2K-2K−2 digits" classification on this. It also explains why established solvers can return wrong answers with a success flag on small, well-conditioned LPs (§4 of the paper), and it bears on computer-assisted proofs that rely on inexact LP, such as the Flyspeck proof of the Kepler conjecture.

The result is proved on paper. As far as the proposer knows, it has not been machine-checked. This mission formalizes the deterministic impossibility part for LP and puts in place reusable infrastructure: general algorithms, breakdown epsilons and Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​-information. That infrastructure is the base for later missions on the randomised parts of Theorem 3.4(i)–(ii), the weak breakdown epsilon (iii), the exit-flag theorem (Theorem 5.1), and basis pursuit and Lasso.

Difficulty

The obvious objection is that LP is in P for rational inputs, so some rounding scheme ought to work. It fails because an algorithm must halt after reading finitely many approximations. Two inputs that agree to that accuracy but have minimisers far apart then receive the same output. Setting this up needs a notion of algorithm strong enough to cover every computational model, a precise Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​-information model in which the adversary controls the approximations, and explicit LP geometry in which an arbitrarily small perturbation of AAA moves the minimiser by a fixed amount.

Formalization scope

  • Inputs are (y,A)∈(Fin m→R)×Matrix(Fin m)(Fin N) R(y,A)\in(\mathrm{Fin}\,m\to\mathbb R)\times\mathrm{Matrix}(\mathrm{Fin}\,m)(\mathrm{Fin}\,N)\,\mathbb R(y,A)∈(Finm→R)×Matrix(Finm)(FinN)R. Evaluations are complex-valued, as in Definition 9.2. Outputs lie in PiLp p (Fin N → ℝ).
  • A general algorithm is a structure with an output run : Ω → Option M (none = NH) and a read set queried, satisfying the axioms (i)–(iii) of Definition 9.3.
  • Errors take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞), and the error of NH is ∞\infty∞. The infimum over an empty solution set is ∞\infty∞. The goal also requires nonempty solution sets, so no junk value enters.
  • Oracle accuracies are indexed by n∈{1,2,… }n\in\{1,2,\dots\}n∈{1,2,…} (ℕ+). An oracle input is stored as a pair (input, oracle family), and algorithms can read only the oracle family.
  • Out of scope: randomised algorithms, the positive statements (iii)–(iv), runtime, and the condition-number bounds Cond(AA∗)≤3.2\mathrm{Cond}(AA^*)\le3.2Cond(AA∗)≤3.2, CFP≤4C_{FP}\le4CFP​≤4, Cond(Ξ)≤179\mathrm{Cond}(\Xi)\le179Cond(Ξ)≤179.

Selected references

  • A. Bastounis, A. C. Hansen, V. Vlačić, The extended Smale's 9th problem — On computational barriers and paradoxes in estimation, regularisation, computer-assisted proofs, and learning, preprint (2021).
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, Math. Intelligencer 20 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03025291
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Optimal TransportProbability·Captain: Lucas

Monge–Kantorovich Duality (Yao 2023)Research Paper

Motivation

Optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to move one distribution of mass onto another. Monge posed the problem in 1781 for maps; Kantorovich (1942) relaxed it to transference plans (couplings), turning it into an infinite-dimensional linear program with a dual: maximize the total revenue ∫ψ dμ+∫φ dν\int\psi\,d\mu+\int\varphi\,d\nu∫ψdμ+∫φdν of pickup and delivery prices that never exceed the cost, ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y)\psi(x)+\varphi(y)\le c(x,y)ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y). The equality of the two values — Monge–Kantorovich duality — underlies much of modern optimal transport, with uses in economics (matching markets, principal–agent problems), probability, and PDE.

This mission formalizes the duality theorem and its proof as presented in Colin Yao, Monge–Kantorovich and Transportation Theory (paper dated September 10, 2023), whose proof follows Villani's Optimal Transport: Old and New and, for the weak inequality, Galichon's Optimal Transport Methods in Economics.

Setting

XXX and YYY are Polish spaces (separable, completely metrizable) with their Borel σ-algebras; μ\muμ and ν\nuν are Borel probability measures on XXX and YYY; c:X×Y→[0,∞)c : X\times Y\to[0,\infty)c:X×Y→[0,∞) is a continuous cost function.

  • A transference plan is a probability measure π\piπ on X×YX\times YX×Y with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν; Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν) denotes the set of such plans.
  • The Kantorovich problem is min⁡π∈Π(μ,ν)∫c dπ\min_{\pi\in\Pi(\mu,\nu)}\int c\,d\piminπ∈Π(μ,ν)​∫cdπ.
  • The dual problem is sup⁡{∫ψ dμ+∫φ dν}\sup\{\int\psi\,d\mu+\int\varphi\,d\nu\}sup{∫ψdμ+∫φdν} over bounded continuous ψ,φ\psi,\varphiψ,φ with ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y)\psi(x)+\varphi(y)\le c(x,y)ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y) everywhere.
  • A set Γ⊆X×Y\Gamma\subseteq X\times YΓ⊆X×Y is ccc-cyclically monotone if ∑i=1Nc(xi,yi)≤∑i=1Nc(xi,yi+1)\sum_{i=1}^N c(x_i,y_i)\le\sum_{i=1}^N c(x_i,y_{i+1})∑i=1N​c(xi​,yi​)≤∑i=1N​c(xi​,yi+1​) (with yN+1=y1y_{N+1}=y_1yN+1​=y1​) for all finite families of points of Γ\GammaΓ; a plan is ccc-cyclically monotone if it is concentrated on such a set.
  • The ccc-conjugate of ψ\psiψ is ψc(y)=inf⁡x(c(x,y)−ψ(x))\psi^c(y)=\inf_x(c(x,y)-\psi(x))ψc(y)=infx​(c(x,y)−ψ(x)); ψ\psiψ is ccc-concave if ψ(x)=inf⁡y(c(x,y)−φ(y))\psi(x)=\inf_y(c(x,y)-\varphi(y))ψ(x)=infy​(c(x,y)−φ(y)) for some φ\varphiφ; its ccc-subdifferential is ∂cψ={(x,y):ψc(y)+ψ(x)=c(x,y)}\partial_c\psi=\{(x,y):\psi^c(y)+\psi(x)=c(x,y)\}∂c​ψ={(x,y):ψc(y)+ψ(x)=c(x,y)}.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 4.1)

min⁡π∈Π(μ,ν)∫X×Yc dπ=sup⁡ψ∈Cb(X), φ∈Cb(Y)ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y)(∫Xψ dμ+∫Yφ dν),\min_{\pi\in\Pi(\mu,\nu)}\int_{X\times Y}c\,d\pi=\sup_{\substack{\psi\in C_b(X),\ \varphi\in C_b(Y)\\ \psi(x)+\varphi(y)\le c(x,y)}}\Big(\int_X\psi\,d\mu+\int_Y\varphi\,d\nu\Big),π∈Π(μ,ν)min​∫X×Y​cdπ=ψ∈Cb​(X), φ∈Cb​(Y)ψ(x)+φ(y)≤c(x,y)​sup​(∫X​ψdμ+∫Y​φdν),

including existence of a minimizing plan; the common value may be +∞+\infty+∞.

Milestones (in the order of the source)

  1. Weak duality, inequality (3.1): inf⁡≥sup⁡\inf\ge\supinf≥sup.
  2. Proposition 4.4: a ccc-cyclically monotone plan exists between uniform empirical measures.
  3. Lemma 4.16: plans with marginals in tight families form a tight family.
  4. Proposition 4.17: a ccc-cyclically monotone plan exists for general marginals.
  5. Proposition 4.22: the support of a ccc-cyclically monotone plan lies in ∂cψ\partial_c\psi∂c​ψ for a ccc-concave ψ\psiψ (bounded ccc).
  6. Theorem 4.25: (ψc)c=ψ(\psi^c)^c=\psi(ψc)c=ψ for ccc-concave ψ\psiψ.
  7. Proposition 4.31: duality for bounded continuous ccc.
  8. Theorem 4.32: ∫f dμ=∫f dπ\int f\,d\mu=\int f\,d\pi∫fdμ=∫fdπ for a plan with marginal μ\muμ.

Significance

Duality converts a minimization over measures into a maximization over functions; it characterizes optimal plans by the complementary-slackness condition that they are concentrated on {ψ(x)+φ(y)=c(x,y)}\{\psi(x)+\varphi(y)=c(x,y)\}{ψ(x)+φ(y)=c(x,y)}, and it is the entry point to Brenier's theorem, the Kantorovich–Rubinstein formula for the Wasserstein-1 distance, and the economic applications discussed in Section 5 of the source. The result is classical and proved in the literature; the work here is to formalize the known proof and to supply reusable infrastructure (couplings, ccc-cyclical monotonicity, ccc-transforms) on top of Mathlib's measure theory.

Difficulty

The weak inequality is a short integration argument; the reverse inequality is where the work lies. Finite-dimensional linear-programming duality does not pass to general measures directly: one must produce a cyclically monotone plan as a limit of discrete approximations (tightness and Prokhorov's theorem, closedness of the cyclic-monotonicity condition under weak convergence), build a potential ψ\psiψ from chains of cost differences, and control measurability and integrability of ψ\psiψ and ψc\psi^cψc. Passing from bounded to unbounded nonnegative costs requires an additional approximation argument, which the source only sketches (Section 4.5).

Formalization scope

Lean namespace MongeKantorovichYao; one definition file provides transference plans, ccc-cyclical monotonicity, ccc-conjugates, ccc-concavity and ccc-subdifferentials. Conventions: marginals are pushforwards along the projections; ccc-conjugates are extended-real infima (no default values); the transport cost in the goal is the [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued integral of the nonnegative cost, and both sides of the goal are compared in the extended reals, so the infinite-cost case is included and no integrability hypothesis is added. The dual side ranges over bounded continuous functions with the constraint imposed at every point. Proposition 4.22 is stated for bounded ccc (as used in Proposition 4.31), since with unbounded costs a real-valued potential need not exist. Infrastructure that may be missing from Mathlib: Prokhorov-type compactness of tight families of probability measures, weak convergence of empirical measures, and lower semicontinuity of π↦∫c dπ\pi\mapsto\int c\,d\piπ↦∫cdπ.

Selected references

  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Grundlehren der mathematischen Wissenschaften 338, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
  • A. Galichon, Optimal Transport Methods in Economics, Princeton University Press, 2016.
  • L. V. Kantorovich, On the translocation of masses, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR 37 (1942).
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VI: The Shortfall Distribution of Capacity-Limited SystemsTextbook

Motivation

Service parts supply chains are often limited by a capacitated resource, such as a production line or a repair shop, instead of by lead times alone. Once capacity binds, the classical tools for setting stock levels (Palm's theorem and the Poisson distribution of units in resupply) no longer apply, and the quantity that determines how much stock is needed is the shortfall: the amount by which the end-of-period inventory falls below its target because capacity was insufficient. Chapter 8 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) builds its tactical planning models for capacity-limited systems on the distribution of this random variable, and on a continuous-time repair queue in which item counts are geometric.

The shortfall recursion is the Lindley recursion of queueing theory (Lindley 1952), so its stationary law is the law of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift. The exponential tail of that maximum goes back to Cramér's work on ruin probabilities; for capacitated production–inventory systems it was stated by Glasserman (1997), whose theorem the book quotes as Theorem 11. Glasserman and Tayur (1995) used the shortfall to optimize base-stock levels in multi-echelon capacitated systems, and Roundy and Muckstadt (2000) studied the mass-exponential approximation that the theorem motivates.

Setting

A single item is produced in periods n=1,2,…n = 1, 2, \dotsn=1,2,… of an infinite horizon; at most ccc units can be produced per period. The demand of period nnn is DnD_nDn​; the demands are nonnegative, independent and identically distributed, with generic demand DDD and E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c (the standing assumption of Section 8.1.1).

Under the modified (s−1,s)(s-1, s)(s−1,s) policy with target level sss, the facility observes DnD_nDn​ and produces min⁡{c,s−In−1+Dn}\min\{c, s - I_{n-1} + D_n\}min{c,s−In−1​+Dn​} units, where InI_nIn​ is the end-of-period net inventory and I0=sI_0 = sI0​=s. The shortfall Vn=s−InV_n = s - I_nVn​=s−In​ satisfies V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and

Vn=[Vn−1+Dn−c]+.(8.1)V_n = \left[V_{n-1} + D_n - c\right]^+ . \tag{8.1}Vn​=[Vn−1​+Dn​−c]+.(8.1)

With the random walk Sn=∑k=1n(Dk−c)S_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} (D_k - c)Sn​=∑k=1n​(Dk​−c) (S0=0S_0 = 0S0​=0), the stationary shortfall is

V=sup⁡n≥0Sn.V = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_n .V=n≥0sup​Sn​.

A law on R\mathbb RR is lattice if it is concentrated on a progression a+dZa + d\mathbb Za+dZ with d>0d > 0d>0.

In the discrete case (ccc and DDD integer valued) (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​ (p. 185). In the repair model of Section 8.3.1, reparable units of item iii arrive at rate λi\lambda_iλi​, λ=∑iλi\lambda = \sum_i \lambda_iλ=∑i​λi​, a single exponential server repairs at rate μ>λ\mu > \lambdaμ>λ, NNN is the number of units in repair and NiN_iNi​ the number of item-iii units, and ηi=λi/(μ−λ+λi)\eta_i = \lambda_i/(\mu - \lambda + \lambda_i)ηi​=λi​/(μ−λ+λi​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11, corrected (p. 191)

Assume E[eαD]<∞E[e^{\alpha D}] < \inftyE[eαD]<∞ for all α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, with δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; P[D>c]>0P[D > c] > 0P[D>c]>0; the law of DDD is non-lattice; and E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). Then there are β>0\beta > 0β>0 and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 with

P{V>v}βe−αv→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.\frac{P\{V > v\}}{\beta e^{-\alpha v}} \to 1 \quad (v \to \infty), \qquad \alpha \text{ the unique positive root of } E\left[e^{-\alpha(c - D)}\right] = 1 .βe−αvP{V>v}​→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.

The constant β\betaβ is left unspecified, as in the book.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Eq. (8.1): under the modified policy, s−In=Vns - I_n = V_ns−In​=Vn​ for every nnn, independently of sss.
  2. Section 8.1.1: V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ almost surely, P{Vn>v}→P{V>v}P\{V_n > v\} \to P\{V > v\}P{Vn​>v}→P{V>v} for every vvv, and the law of VVV is stationary for (8.1).
  3. Eq. (8.2): for v>0v > 0v>0, P{Vn>v}=P{Dn>v+c}+ED[1(d≤v+c) P{Vn−1>v+c−d}]P\{V_n > v\} = P\{D_n > v + c\} + E_D[1(d \le v + c)\, P\{V_{n-1} > v + c - d\}]P{Vn​>v}=P{Dn​>v+c}+ED​[1(d≤v+c)P{Vn−1​>v+c−d}].
  4. Theorem 11, second sentence: E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has at most one positive root.
  5. Section 8.1.2: with integer demand, (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​.
  6. Section 8.1.2: πi=lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\pi_i = \lim_n P\{V_n = i\}πi​=limn​P{Vn​=i} exists and solves πP=π\pi\mathcal P = \piπP=π, ∑iπi=1\sum_i \pi_i = 1∑i​πi​=1, πi≥0\pi_i \ge 0πi​≥0.
  7. Section 8.3.1: if NNN is geometric with parameter λ/μ\lambda/\muλ/μ and NiN_iNi​ given N=jN = jN=j is binomial(j,λi/λ)(j, \lambda_i/\lambda)(j,λi​/λ), then P[Ni=j]=(1−ηi)ηijP[N_i = j] = (1 - \eta_i)\eta_i^jP[Ni​=j]=(1−ηi​)ηij​.
  8. Section 8.3.1: ∑j>spi(j)=ηis+1\sum_{j > s} p_i(j) = \eta_i^{s+1}∑j>s​pi​(j)=ηis+1​, and the smallest cost-minimising stock level is the smallest sss with ηis+1≤hi/(hi+b)\eta_i^{s+1} \le h_i/(h_i + b)ηis+1​≤hi​/(hi​+b).

Significance

The exponential tail is the justification the book gives for approximating the shortfall by a mass-exponential law (an atom at zero plus an exponential tail), from which target stock levels and fill rates are computed in closed form. The decay rate α\alphaα depends only on the demand law and the capacity, so the theorem also says how the stock needed for a given service level grows as utilization approaches one. The discrete-chain milestones justify the exact computation of the shortfall distribution behind the book's Table 8.1 and Figures 8.3–8.8. The geometric law of NiN_iNi​ reduces the multi-item repair problem to independent newsvendor problems with an explicit solution.

The asymptotics of the random-walk maximum are proved in the literature (Cramér–Lundberg theory, Feller Vol. II, XII.5; Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, XIII.5); no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Mathlib has neither the Lindley recursion, nor ladder-height decompositions, nor the key renewal theorem for non-lattice laws. The printed Theorem 11 is not correct as stated (see Formalization scope), so the mission also records a corrected statement.

Difficulty

The central step of the goal is the passage from the random walk to an exact asymptotic. An exponential change of measure (Esscher tilt) with the root α\alphaα turns P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} into an expectation under a law with positive drift, but it only yields the upper bound P{V>v}≤e−αvP\{V > v\} \le e^{-\alpha v}P{V>v}≤e−αv (Lundberg's inequality); it does not show that eαvP{V>v}e^{\alpha v}P\{V > v\}eαvP{V>v} converges, nor that the limit is positive. Convergence needs a renewal theorem for the overshoot of the tilted walk, which fails for lattice laws. That is why the non-lattice hypothesis cannot be dropped. For the milestones, the existence of the stationary law needs the reversal argument that identifies the law of VnV_nVn​ with that of max⁡k≤nSk\max_{k \le n} S_kmaxk≤n​Sk​, plus the strong law of large numbers to show V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ from E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demands are real, nonnegative, measurable, i.i.d. (iIndepFun plus IdentDistrib with D1D_1D1​), integrable, with E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c; these are fields of ShortfallModel. Periods are numbered from 111 as in the book (demand 0 is an unused i.i.d. copy). The discrete case is a separate structure with N\mathbb NN-valued demand and capacity.
  • Stationary shortfall. The book's "stationary distribution ... Let VVV represent this random variable" is pinned to V=sup⁡n≥0SnV = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_nV=supn≥0​Sn​, taken in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and converted to a real number; milestone 2 proves that it is the limit law of VnV_nVn​ from V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and a stationary law of (8.1). The discrete πi\pi_iπi​ is pinned to lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\lim_n P\{V_n = i\}limn​P{Vn​=i}.
  • Corrections to Theorem 11. The printed theorem is false. For integer demand P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} is a step function, and no βe−αv\beta e^{-\alpha v}βe−αv is asymptotic to it. If E[eαD]E[e^{\alpha D}]E[eαD] is finite only for α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, the equation E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 may have no root in (0,δ)(0,\delta)(0,δ). The goal therefore adds two labelled hypotheses: a non-lattice demand law, and a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). The mass-exponential demand of Section 8.1.3 (an atom at 000 plus a density) is non-lattice. The approximation β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ\beta \approx e^{-2(.583)(c-E(D))/\sigma}β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ is not stated.
  • Repair model. The M/M/1 queue is not built. The geometric law of NNN (asserted on p. 202) and the binomial split of NNN (quoted from Chapter 3) enter milestone 7 as hypotheses, exactly as the page's proof uses them. The stability condition λ<μ\lambda < \muλ<μ, not written on the page, is a hypothesis. "The optimal sis_isi​" is read as the smallest minimiser of the cost.
  • Ruled out. Stating Theorem 11 with α\alphaα or β\betaβ allowed to depend on vvv, with β=0\beta = 0β=0 (the ratio would be a division by zero, which Lean evaluates to 000), or for a VVV postulated to have an exponential tail proves nothing. Here β,α\beta, \alphaβ,α are quantified before vvv, both are asserted positive, and VVV is constructed from the demands.
  • Not formalized. The mass-exponential approximations (8.3)–(8.4), the Roundy–Muckstadt refinement, the fill-rate formula η(s)\eta(s)η(s) (a definition, whose steady-state identity needs uniform integrability the book does not discuss), the random-capacity chain on p. 186, and the monotonicity of sis_isi​ in μ\muμ.
  • Reusable infrastructure. Welcome: the Lindley recursion and its reversal identity, the Loynes existence theorem, Lundberg's inequality, and a non-lattice renewal theorem. All of these are needed well beyond this mission, in queueing (GI/G/1 waiting times) and ruin theory.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • P. Glasserman, Bounds and asymptotics for planning critical safety stocks, Operations Research 45(2), 244–257, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.2.244
  • P. Glasserman and S. Tayur, Sensitivity analysis for base-stock levels in multiechelon production-inventory systems, Management Science 41(2), 263–281, 1995 (the book's reference [97]). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.2.263
  • R. O. Roundy and J. A. Muckstadt, Heuristic computation of periodic-review base stock inventory policies, Management Science 46(1), 104–109, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.1.104.15131
  • D. V. Lindley, The theory of queues with a single server, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 48(2), 277–289, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100027638
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971, Chapter XII.
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, Chapter XIII. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains V: Marginal Allocation and Risk PoolingTextbook

Motivation

Service parts networks (spare parts for aircraft, military systems, industrial equipment) hold stock at several echelons: a depot, intermediate stocking facilities, and bases or warehouses that face demand. Two questions recur in their planning. First, how should a given amount of stock be split among locations whose expected costs are convex in the stock they hold? Second, does adding an echelon, a depot that pools the demand of several warehouses, raise or lower the stock the system needs?

Chapter 7 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879), treats both. For the second it follows Eppen and Schrage (1981, reference [78] of the book): with normal demands, a depot that places orders every period and allocates stock so that all warehouses face the same stockout probability reduces the choice of system stock to a single critical-fractile equation. For the first, the chapter's multi-echelon pooling model (Section 7.3) evaluates nested cost functions of the form "holding and shortage cost plus the minimum over allocations of a sum of convex costs", and its appendix (Section 7.4) gives the marginal allocation algorithm AllocOpt that computes these minima exactly for every stock level at once.

Marginal analysis for separable convex resource allocation is classical (Fox, Management Science, 1966); the monograph of Ibaraki and Katoh (MIT Press, 1988) surveys it.

Setting

Allocation data (Section 7.4). There is a set M={1,…,Mˉ}M = \{1, \dots, \bar M\}M={1,…,Mˉ} of locations and an augmented set M0={0}∪MM_0 = \{0\} \cup MM0​={0}∪M. Each location m∈M0m \in M_0m∈M0​ has integer gridpoints 0=r0m<r1m<⋯<rn(m)m0 = r^m_0 < r^m_1 < \dots < r^m_{n(m)}0=r0m​<r1m​<⋯<rn(m)m​. For m∈Mm \in Mm∈M, the value cnmc^m_ncnm​ of a convex function is given at each gridpoint. The slopes (7.19) are c^nm=(cn+1m−cnm)/(rn+1m−rnm)\hat c^m_n = (c^m_{n+1} - c^m_n)/(r^m_{n+1} - r^m_n)c^nm​=(cn+1m​−cnm​)/(rn+1m​−rnm​) for n<n(m)n < n(m)n<n(m), and c^n(m)m\hat c^m_{n(m)}c^n(m)m​ repeats the last one. The piecewise linear approximation C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ of (7.20)–(7.21) interpolates the values cnmc^m_ncnm​ at the gridpoints and continues with slope c^n(m)m\hat c^m_{n(m)}c^n(m)m​ beyond the last one. A convex function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ is also given.

The allocation optimization (7.22) asks, for each n∈N0={0,…,n(0)}n \in N_0 = \{0, \dots, n(0)\}n∈N0​={0,…,n(0)}, for

cn0=f(rn0)+min⁡{∑m∈MC~m(rm):rm≥0 integer, ∑m∈Mrm=rn0}.c^0_n = f(r^0_n) + \min\Bigl\{ \sum_{m \in M} \tilde C_m(r_m) : r_m \ge 0 \text{ integer},\ \sum_{m \in M} r_m = r^0_n \Bigr\}.cn0​=f(rn0​)+min{m∈M∑​C~m​(rm​):rm​≥0 integer, m∈M∑​rm​=rn0​}.

Algorithm AllocOpt (Definition 4) keeps a current gridpoint index n∗(m)n^*(m)n∗(m) and allocation r∗(m)r^*(m)r∗(m) per location. For each increment rn0−rn−10r^0_n - r^0_{n-1}rn0​−rn−10​ of the target, it repeatedly gives units to a location m∗m^*m∗ whose current slope c^n∗(m∗)m∗\hat c^{m^*}_{n^*(m^*)}c^n∗(m∗)m∗​ is minimal, up to that location's next gridpoint, and records the accumulated cost.

Pooling system (Section 7.2.1). One depot supplies mmm warehouses. The demand djtd_{jt}djt​ at warehouse jjj in period ttt is normal with mean μj\mu_jμj​ and variance σj2\sigma_j^2σj2​, independent across periods and warehouses. The supplier-to-depot lead time is DDD periods, the depot-to-warehouse lead time AAA periods, and holding and backorder costs h,bh, bh,b are equal at all warehouses. Positions IjI_jIj​ are in balance when Φ((Ij−Aμj)/(A σj))\Phi((I_j - A\mu_j)/(\sqrt A\,\sigma_j))Φ((Ij​−Aμj​)/(A​σj​)) is the same for all jjj. For system inventory position sss, with Y0Y_0Y0​ the system demand over DDD periods and YjY_jYj​ the demand at jjj over the next A+1A + 1A+1 periods, the balanced allocation gives each warehouse a share proportional to σj\sigma_jσj​, and zjz_jzj​ is its end-of-period net inventory.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (correctness)

For every tie-breaking rule in its arg min steps, AllocOpt returns values cn0c^0_ncn0​ that satisfy (7.22) for every n∈N0n \in N_0n∈N0​: some feasible integer allocation attains cn0−f(rn0)c^0_n - f(r^0_n)cn0​−f(rn0​), and no feasible integer allocation does better.

Milestones

  1. Slope monotonicity (p. 178): c^nm≥c^n−1m\hat c^m_n \ge \hat c^m_{n-1}c^nm​≥c^n−1m​ for 0<n≤n(m)0 < n \le n(m)0<n≤n(m).
  2. Convexity of C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) (proof of Proposition 2, p. 179).
  3. Remark 2 (p. 179): with the inner loop run only while the current slope is ≤0\le 0≤0, AllocOpt solves (7.22) with ∑mrm≤rn0\sum_m r_m \le r^0_n∑m​rm​≤rn0​.
  4. Lemma 3 (p. 152): if the positions are in balance and
∑jdj,t−1≥max⁡i{∑j≠idj,t+D−1+di,t+D−1(1−∑jσjσi)},\sum_{j} d_{j,t-1} \ge \max_{i} \Bigl\{ \sum_{j \ne i} d_{j,t+D-1} + d_{i,t+D-1}\Bigl(1 - \frac{\sum_j \sigma_j}{\sigma_i}\Bigr)\Bigr\},j∑​dj,t−1​≥imax​{j=i∑​dj,t+D−1​+di,t+D−1​(1−σi​∑j​σj​​)},

then a nonnegative allocation of the arriving ∑jdj,t−1\sum_j d_{j,t-1}∑j​dj,t−1​ units restores balance. 5. Net inventory law (pp. 156–157): zjz_jzj​ is normal with mean (s−(D+A+1)∑iμi) σj/∑iσi(s - (D + A + 1)\sum_i \mu_i)\,\sigma_j / \sum_i \sigma_i(s−(D+A+1)∑i​μi​)σj​/∑i​σi​ and variance (A+1)σj2+(σj/∑iσi)2D∑iσi2(A + 1)\sigma_j^2 + (\sigma_j / \sum_i \sigma_i)^2 D \sum_i \sigma_i^2(A+1)σj2​+(σj​/∑i​σi​)2D∑i​σi2​. 6. Critical fractile (pp. 157–158): sss minimizes ∑jE[h(zj)++b(zj)−]\sum_j E[h (z_j)^+ + b (z_j)^-]∑j​E[h(zj​)++b(zj​)−] if and only if Φ(z)=b/(b+h)\Phi(z) = b/(b+h)Φ(z)=b/(b+h), where

z=s−(D+A+1)∑iμi[(A+1)(∑iσi)2+D∑iσi2]1/2.z = \frac{s - (D + A + 1)\sum_i \mu_i}{\bigl[(A + 1)(\sum_i \sigma_i)^2 + D \sum_i \sigma_i^2\bigr]^{1/2}}.z=[(A+1)(∑i​σi​)2+D∑i​σi2​]1/2s−(D+A+1)∑i​μi​​.

Significance

The goal certifies an algorithm that the chapter uses as a subroutine three times: in the pool cost (7.14), the subsystem cost (7.15) and the system cost (7.17), and hence in the claim of Section 7.3 that the system-wide cost function can be computed in time nlog⁡nn \log nnlogn in the number of locations. Because AllocOpt produces the whole vector (cn0)n∈N0(c^0_n)_{n \in N_0}(cn0​)n∈N0​​ in one pass, its correctness gives the nested value functions at every gridpoint of the next echelon, which is what allows the recursion up the echelons. The Eppen–Schrage milestones give the classical quantitative form of risk pooling: the system stock is set by one critical fractile, and the standard deviation term (A+1)(∑iσi)2+D∑iσi2(A + 1)(\sum_i \sigma_i)^2 + D \sum_i \sigma_i^2(A+1)(∑i​σi​)2+D∑i​σi2​ is what the book compares with the single-warehouse and the decentralized systems.

On formalization: the book states Proposition 2 with a two-sentence argument and Remark 2 without proof. The Eppen–Schrage computations are displayed derivations. None of these results has a machine-checked proof on the platform. A verified AllocOpt, stated for an explicit algorithm rather than for an abstract greedy procedure, is reusable for any separable convex integer allocation with a sum constraint.

Difficulty

The usual greedy exchange argument assumes that units are allocated one at a time. AllocOpt allocates in blocks, up to the next gridpoint of the chosen location, and it carries its state across successive targets rn−10→rn0r^0_{n-1} \to r^0_nrn−10​→rn0​ without restarting. The proof must therefore show that the state after each outer step is itself an optimal allocation for the current target, and that block moves never step past a breakpoint where the arg min would change. The slopes can be negative, and the equality constraint forces allocation even when every marginal cost is positive. Remark 2 needs an additional argument: under the inequality constraint the loop may stop before uuu reaches zero, and that point is optimal only because the slopes are nondecreasing.

For the pooling results, the balanced allocation mixes the depot-lead-time demand Y0Y_0Y0​ of all warehouses with the local demand YjY_jYj​, and the Gaussian law of zjz_jzj​ rests on the independence of disjoint blocks of periods. The fractile statement requires strict monotonicity of each warehouse's expected cost derivative in sss, not only a first-order condition.

Formalization scope

  • Indices and types. Locations of MMM are Fin Mbar; gridpoints are integers, values and slopes real numbers; allocations are functions Fin Mbar → ℕ. The standing assumptions of Section 7.4 form the predicate WellFormed: Mˉ≥1\bar M \ge 1Mˉ≥1, n(m)≥1n(m) \ge 1n(m)≥1 for m∈Mm \in Mm∈M (a slope (7.19) needs two gridpoints), gridpoints starting at 000 and strictly increasing at every location of M0M_0M0​, each cnmc^m_ncnm​ the value of a function convex on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), and fff convex on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞).
  • The minimum in (7.22) is stated as attainment plus a lower bound over the finite, nonempty set of feasible integer allocations, never as an unconstrained infimum.
  • Ties. The book's arg min fixes no tie-breaking rule. Results are stated for every selection rule that returns a minimizing location.
  • Termination. AllocOpt is a total Lean function. The inner loop is given more passes than it can use, so it always exits through its own condition.
  • Not stated. The operation count of Proposition 2, O((1+log⁡2Mˉ)∑m∈M0n(m))O((1 + \log_2 \bar M)\sum_{m \in M_0} n(m))O((1+log2​Mˉ)∑m∈M0​​n(m)), and Proposition 1 and Remark 1 (p. 177) are operation counts with no machine model and are left out.
  • Corrections. The first expected-cost display on p. 157 has + b∫−∞0z dFzj(z)+\,b\int_{-\infty}^0 z\,dF_{z_j}(z)+b∫−∞0​zdFzj​​(z), which is negative. The formalization uses b E[(zj)−]b\,E[(z_j)^-]bE[(zj​)−], as in the book's next display.
  • Pinnings. Lemma 3 is deterministic: the demands are arbitrary reals, and "in balance following the allocation" means that some xj≥0x_j \ge 0xj​≥0 with ∑jxj=∑jdj,t−1\sum_j x_j = \sum_j d_{j,t-1}∑j​xj​=∑j​dj,t−1​ exists. The critical-fractile milestone is the characterization "minimizer if and only if Φ(z)=b/(b+h)\Phi(z) = b/(b+h)Φ(z)=b/(b+h)" of the book's "can be found by setting".
  • Trivialization ruled out. The allocation problem (7.22) is defined independently of the algorithm, as a minimum over explicit integer allocations, and the C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ are built from the data by (7.19)–(7.21). Neither (7.22) nor the C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ are defined as, or required to agree with, what AllocOpt returns.
  • Welcome contributions. Lemmas on the invariants of AllocOpt, in particular that after each outer step the allocation r∗r^*r∗ is feasible for rn0r^0_nrn0​ with cost zzz and all slopes to the left of n∗(m)n^*(m)n∗(m) are at most those to the right. Also Gaussian sum lemmas over finite index sets and a general newsvendor first-order characterization.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2005. DOI 10.1007/b138879
  • G. D. Eppen and L. Schrage, "Centralized ordering policies in a multi-warehouse system with lead times and random demand", in L. B. Schwarz (ed.), Multi-Level Production/Inventory Control Systems: Theory and Practice, Studies in the Management Sciences, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1981, pp. 51–67.
  • G. D. Eppen, "Effects of centralization on expected costs in a multi-location newsboy problem", Management Science 25(5), 1979, 498–501. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.25.5.498
  • B. Fox, "Discrete optimization via marginal analysis", Management Science 13(3), 1966, 210–216. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.13.3.210
  • T. Ibaraki and N. Katoh, Resource Allocation Problems: Algorithmic Approaches, MIT Press, 1988.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains III: Palm's Theorem for (s–1, s) PoliciesTextbook

Motivation

Service parts (spare engines, avionics modules, repairable components) are usually managed one unit at a time: whenever a customer order removes a unit from stock, a replacement is ordered at once, from a repair shop or an outside supplier. This is the (s–1, s) policy, under which the inventory position (on hand plus on order minus backorders) stays constant at the stock level sss. Every performance measure of such a system (fill rate, expected backorders, availability) is a function of one random variable: the number of units in resupply, i.e. ordered but not yet returned. Chapter 3 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005) computes its distribution, and the rest of the book (the METRIC-type multi-echelon models of Chapters 4 and 5, the stock-level optimization of Section 3.4) is built on that computation.

Timeline. C. Palm (1938) showed, in the setting of telephone traffic, that in an infinite-server system with Poisson arrivals the number of busy servers has, in steady state, a Poisson law whose mean is the arrival rate times the mean service time, whatever the service-time distribution. Feeney and Sherbrooke (1966) carried the result to (s–1, s) inventory systems with compound Poisson demand, and treated the lost-sales case. Sherbrooke's METRIC model (1968) made the Poisson law of units in resupply the basis of multi-echelon spare-parts planning.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location. Customer orders arrive at epochs T0<T1<⋯T_0 < T_1 < \cdotsT0​<T1​<⋯ of a Poisson process with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, started empty at time 000: the interarrival times AkA_kAk​ are independent and exponential with rate λ\lambdaλ, and Tk=A0+⋯+AkT_k = A_0 + \cdots + A_kTk​=A0​+⋯+Ak​. The kkk-th order triggers a resupply order with resupply time Lk≥0L_k \ge 0Lk​≥0. The resupply times are independent and identically distributed, independent of the arrival process, with a density ggg, distribution function G(u)=P[L≤u]G(u) = P[L \le u]G(u)=P[L≤u] and finite mean

τˉ=E[L]=∫0∞[1−G(u)] du.\bar\tau = E[L] = \int_0^\infty [1 - G(u)]\,du .τˉ=E[L]=∫0∞​[1−G(u)]du.

With backorders allowed, the number of units in resupply at time ttt is

X(t)=#{k:Tk≤t<Tk+Lk},X(t) = \#\{k : T_k \le t < T_k + L_k\},X(t)=#{k:Tk​≤t<Tk​+Lk​},

and N(t)=#{k:Tk≤t}N(t) = \#\{k : T_k \le t\}N(t)=#{k:Tk​≤t} counts the orders placed in [0,t][0,t][0,t]. On-hand stock and backorders at time ttt are (s−X(t))+(s - X(t))^+(s−X(t))+ and (X(t)−s)+(X(t) - s)^+(X(t)−s)+.

In the compound Poisson version the kkk-th order asks for Xk≥1X_k \ge 1Xk​≥1 units, the sizes are i.i.d. with uj=P[Xk=j]u_j = P[X_k = j]uj​=P[Xk​=j], independent of arrivals and resupply times, and all units of one order share its resupply time LkL_kLk​. The units in resupply are Y(t)=∑k:Tk≤t<Tk+LkXkY(t) = \sum_{k : T_k \le t < T_k + L_k} X_kY(t)=∑k:Tk​≤t<Tk​+Lk​​Xk​. Writing un(y)u^{(y)}_nun(y)​ for the probability that yyy orders ask for nnn units in total, the compound Poisson probabilities with parameter μ\muμ are

p(n∣μ)=∑y=0nμye−μy! un(y).p(n \mid \mu) = \sum_{y=0}^{n} \frac{\mu^y e^{-\mu}}{y!}\,u^{(y)}_n .p(n∣μ)=y=0∑n​y!μye−μ​un(y)​.

In the lost-sales version an order that finds no stock on hand is lost, so at most sss units are ever in resupply.

Formalization targets

Goal: Palm's theorem (Theorem 6, p. 39)

For every x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

lim⁡t→∞P[X(t)=x]=e−λτˉ(λτˉ)xx!.\lim_{t\to\infty} P[X(t) = x] = e^{-\lambda\bar\tau}\frac{(\lambda\bar\tau)^x}{x!}.t→∞lim​P[X(t)=x]=e−λτˉx!(λτˉ)x​.

The resupply-time law enters only through its mean. This is the statement the book's proof establishes and every later chapter uses.

The proof's milestones (pp. 38–41)

  1. Eq. (3.5): P[N(t)=n]=e−λt(λt)n/n!P[N(t) = n] = e^{-\lambda t}(\lambda t)^n/n!P[N(t)=n]=e−λt(λt)n/n!.
  2. Eq. (3.3): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the epochs (T0,…,Tn−1)(T_0, \dots, T_{n-1})(T0​,…,Tn−1​) have density n!/tnn!/t^nn!/tn on 0<t1<⋯<tn<t0 < t_1 < \cdots < t_n < t0<t1​<⋯<tn​<t.
  3. Eq. (3.7): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, X(t)X(t)X(t) is binomial with parameters nnn and p=1t∫0t[1−G(u)] dup = \frac1t\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,dup=t1​∫0t​[1−G(u)]du.
  4. Eq. (3.8): for every t>0t > 0t>0, X(t)X(t)X(t) is Poisson with mean λ∫0t[1−G(u)] du\lambda\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,duλ∫0t​[1−G(u)]du.
  5. Eq. (3.10): ∫0t[1−G(u)] du→τˉ\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,du \to \bar\tau∫0t​[1−G(u)]du→τˉ.

Extensions in Section 3.1

  1. Theorem 7 (pp. 43–44): with compound Poisson demand, lim⁡t→∞P[Y(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉ)\lim_{t\to\infty}P[Y(t) = n] = p(n \mid \lambda\bar\tau)limt→∞​P[Y(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉ).
  2. Theorem 8 (p. 44): in the lost-sales system with exponential resupply times of rate β\betaβ, the probability vectors solving the balance equations are exactly the truncated Poisson law πx∝(λ/β)x/x!\pi_x \propto (\lambda/\beta)^x/x!πx​∝(λ/β)x/x!, 0≤x≤s0 \le x \le s0≤x≤s.
  3. Theorem 9 (pp. 46–47): for a due-date delay T≥0T \ge 0T≥0, the units in resupply that have been there for at least TTT satisfy lim⁡t→∞P[YT(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉα)\lim_{t\to\infty}P[Y_T(t) = n] = p(n \mid \lambda\bar\tau\alpha)limt→∞​P[YT​(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉα) with α=1τˉ∫T∞[1−G(t)] dt\alpha = \frac1{\bar\tau}\int_T^\infty[1-G(t)]\,dtα=τˉ1​∫T∞​[1−G(t)]dt.

Significance

The result. Palm's theorem turns an infinite-dimensional object (the whole resupply-time distribution) into one number, τˉ\bar\tauτˉ. This insensitivity is what makes spare-parts planning computable: the expected backorders at stock level sss are ∑x>s(x−s) p(x∣λτˉ)\sum_{x > s}(x - s)\,p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)∑x>s​(x−s)p(x∣λτˉ), the fill rate is P[X≤s−1]P[X \le s - 1]P[X≤s−1], and both can be optimized over sss with only the demand rate and mean repair time as data. Theorem 7 extends this to batch demand, Theorem 9 to systems allowed a response time, and Theorem 8 gives the exact law when shortages are lost instead of backordered.

Formalizing it. All of these results are classical and proved. None of them is formalized on the platform, and Mathlib has Poisson and exponential distributions but no Poisson process, no thinning theorem and no infinite-server queue. The mission produces a Poisson arrival stream built from i.i.d. exponential gaps, the conditional-uniformity property of its epochs, independent thinning, and the M/G/∞ transient law, all reusable in queueing and inventory missions.

Difficulty

The algebra of the proof (summing the binomial against the Poisson law of N(t)N(t)N(t)) is short. The work is in the probabilistic step the book treats in a sentence: that, given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the nnn orders behave like independent uniform epochs, each of which independently is still in resupply at time ttt with the same probability ppp. This needs the joint law of the partial sums of exponential variables (Eq. (3.3)), and then a symmetrization argument, since the epochs are ordered while the resupply times are attached to order indices. The naive route of computing P[X(t)=x]P[X(t) = x]P[X(t)=x] by conditioning on individual epochs does not go through without that exchangeability step. The limit t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ is then elementary; stating a stationary version directly is not a substitute, since the book's "steady state" is exactly this limit.

Formalization scope

The model is a structure on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P): exponential interarrival times with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, nonnegative resupply times with a density and an integrable first coordinate, and mutual independence of the whole family. Orders are indexed from 000, so the book's X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are T0,…,Tn−1T_0, \dots, T_{n-1}T0​,…,Tn−1​. Counts are cardinalities of sets of order indices, with value 000 on the probability-zero event where infinitely many orders fall in a bounded interval.

Commitments and pinnings:

  • "Steady state probability" (Theorems 6, 7, 9) is lim⁡t→∞P[⋅(t)=x]\lim_{t\to\infty}P[\cdot(t) = x]limt→∞​P[⋅(t)=x] for the system empty at time 000, which is what the proofs compute via (3.8)–(3.11).
  • Independence of resupply times from arrivals is not written in Theorem 6 but is used on p. 40; it is part of the model.
  • The stock level sss does not enter the backorder model; it matters only in Theorem 8.
  • Theorem 8 is stated algebraically: a vector on {0,…,s}\{0, \dots, s\}{0,…,s} solves the balance equations (3.26), (3.25) for 0<j<s0 < j < s0<j<s and (3.32), and sums to one, if and only if it is the truncated Poisson law. The book obtains these equations by letting t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ in the forward equations under the unproved assumption Pj′(t)→0P_j'(t) \to 0Pj′​(t)→0. The book writes (3.25) "for 0≤j≤s0 \le j \le s0≤j≤s", which at j=sj = sj=s contradicts its own (3.32); the boundary equation (3.32) is used. The sentence on p. 46 extending Theorem 8 to arbitrary resupply densities is asserted without proof and is not stated.
  • Theorem 7 identifies the limit law by its probabilities (3.22)–(3.23); its mean λτˉuˉ\lambda\bar\tau\bar uλτˉuˉ is a property of that law. Theorem 9 is stated for compound demand as the book states it, although the book's proof covers only the Poisson case.

A model in which X(t)X(t)X(t) is postulated through its law, or in which resupply times may depend on the arrival epochs, makes the goal empty or false; here X(t)X(t)X(t) is computed from the primitive arrival and resupply times, whose joint law is fully specified.

Welcome contributions: a general Poisson-process library (construction from exponential gaps, Poisson marginals, order-statistics property), independent thinning, and proofs of the milestones in the listed order.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, 2005, Chapter 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • C. Palm, "Analysis of the Erlang traffic formula for busy-signal arrangements", Ericsson Technics 5, 1938, 39–58.
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, "The (s–1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand", Management Science 12(5), 1966, 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
  • C. C. Sherbrooke, "METRIC: A multi-echelon technique for recoverable item control", Operations Research 16(1), 1968, 122–141. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.16.1.122
  • S. M. Ross, Stochastic Processes, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1996, Section 2.3 (conditional distribution of arrival times) and Section 2.4 (the M/G/∞ queue).
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Dynamical Systems·Captain: Lucas

Hilbert's 16th Problem for Algebraic Limit Cycles (Llibre's Conjecture)Open Problem

Motivation

The second part of Hilbert's 16th problem (Paris, 1900) asks for the maximal number and the relative position of the limit cycles of a planar polynomial differential system

x˙=P(x,y),y˙=Q(x,y),\dot x = P(x,y),\qquad \dot y = Q(x,y),x˙=P(x,y),y˙​=Q(x,y),

where P,QP,QP,Q are real polynomials of degree at most ddd. Smale listed it in 1998 among the mathematical problems for the next century and remarked that, apart from the Riemann hypothesis, it seems the hardest of Hilbert's problems (Smale 1998). Even for d=2d = 2d=2 it is not known whether the number of limit cycles is uniformly bounded.

J. Llibre's survey Sobre el problema 16 de Hilbert (La Gaceta de la RSME 18 (2015), 543–554) organises the question into seven problems and concentrates on a more tractable restriction: algebraic limit cycles, i.e. limit cycles contained in a real algebraic curve. For this restriction there is an explicit conjecture for the maximal number (Conjecture 1 of the survey, first stated in Llibre–Ramírez–Sadovskaia 2010). This mission formalizes that conjecture as its goal, together with the results of the survey on which it rests.

Timeline (as reported in the survey):

  • 1891–1897 — Poincaré introduces limit cycles and proves finiteness for systems without saddle connections.
  • 1900 — Hilbert poses the 16th problem.
  • 1923 — Dulac claims every polynomial system has finitely many limit cycles; in 1985 Ilyashenko finds a gap.
  • 1957/1959 — Petrovskii and Landis claim H(2)=3H(2)=3H(2)=3 and later find an error; 1979 (Chen–Wang) and 1982 (Shi) give quadratic systems with 4 limit cycles.
  • 1986 — Bamon proves finiteness for quadratic systems; 1991/1992 — Ilyashenko and Écalle independently prove finiteness for all polynomial systems.
  • 2001 — Christopher realises any non-singular algebraic curve's bounded components as hyperbolic limit cycles of a system of the same degree (Christopher 2001).
  • 2004 — Llibre and Rodríguez show every configuration of limit cycles is realisable by algebraic limit cycles (Llibre–Rodríguez 2004).
  • 2007 — Llibre and Zhao give a cubic system with two algebraic limit cycles (Llibre–Zhao 2007).
  • 2010 — Llibre, Ramírez and Sadovskaia bound the number of algebraic limit cycles when all invariant algebraic curves are generic, and state the conjecture.

Setting

A polynomial vector field is a pair V=(P,Q)V = (P, Q)V=(P,Q) of real polynomials in x,yx,yx,y; its degree is max⁡(deg⁡P,deg⁡Q)\max(\deg P, \deg Q)max(degP,degQ). A solution is a differentiable curve γ:R→R2\gamma:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R^2γ:R→R2 with γ′(t)=(P,Q)(γ(t))\gamma'(t) = (P,Q)(\gamma(t))γ′(t)=(P,Q)(γ(t)) for all ttt. A periodic orbit is the image of a non-constant periodic solution. A limit cycle is a periodic orbit OOO that is isolated among periodic orbits: some open set U⊇OU \supseteq OU⊇O contains no periodic orbit other than OOO.

A limit cycle is algebraic if it is contained in the zero set {f=0}\{f = 0\}{f=0} of a non-zero real polynomial fff. The algebraic Hilbert number Ha(d)H_a(d)Ha​(d) is the supremum, over all polynomial vector fields of degree at most ddd, of the number of algebraic limit cycles (a value in N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}).

A curve f=0f = 0f=0 is invariant with cofactor KKK if P fx+Q fy=KfP\,f_x + Q\,f_y = K fPfx​+Qfy​=Kf. A family of irreducible curves is generic if (i) no curve is singular, (ii) the top-degree homogeneous part of each curve is square-free, (iii) distinct curves meet transversally, (iv) no three distinct curves share a point, and (v) the top-degree homogeneous parts of distinct curves are coprime.

Formalization targets

Goal — Conjecture 1 (Llibre–Ramírez–Sadovskaia)

Ha(d)=1+(d−1)(d−2)2(d≥2).H_a(d) = 1 + \frac{(d-1)(d-2)}{2}\qquad (d \ge 2).Ha​(d)=1+2(d−1)(d−2)​(d≥2).

The equality asserts both that the number of algebraic limit cycles is bounded by the right-hand side for every field of degree at most ddd, and that the bound is attained.

Milestones (in the order of the survey)

  1. §2, Problem 1 — every polynomial vector field has finitely many limit cycles (Écalle, Ilyashenko).
  2. §3 — H(1)=0H(1) = 0H(1)=0: vector fields of degree at most 111 have no limit cycles.
  3. Theorem 1(a),(b) — every configuration of limit cycles is realised, and realised by algebraic limit cycles in degree ≤2(n+r)−1\le 2(n+r)-1≤2(n+r)−1.
  4. Theorem 2 (Christopher) — the bounded components of a non-singular curve f=0f = 0f=0 are exactly the limit cycles, all hyperbolic, of x˙=αf−Dfy\dot x = \alpha f - D f_yx˙=αf−Dfy​, y˙=βf+Dfx\dot y = \beta f + D f_xy˙​=βf+Dfx​.
  5. Proposition 3 — invariance of fff is equivalent to invariance of its irreducible factors, with Kf=∑niKfiK_f = \sum n_i K_{f_i}Kf​=∑ni​Kfi​​.
  6. Theorem 4(a),(b) — for degree d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 and generic invariant curves, at most 1+(d−1)(d−2)21 + \frac{(d-1)(d-2)}{2}1+2(d−1)(d−2)​ (even ddd) or (d−1)(d−2)2\frac{(d-1)(d-2)}{2}2(d−1)(d−2)​ (odd ddd) algebraic limit cycles, and the bounds are attained.
  7. §7 example — the cubic system x˙=2y(10+xy)\dot x = 2y(10+xy)x˙=2y(10+xy), y˙=20x+y−20x3−2x2y+4y3\dot y = 20x + y - 20x^3 - 2x^2 y + 4y^3y˙​=20x+y−20x3−2x2y+4y3 has two algebraic limit cycles in 2x4−4x2+4y2+1=02x^4 - 4x^2 + 4y^2 + 1 = 02x4−4x2+4y2+1=0.
  8. Conjecture 2 — Ha(2)=1H_a(2) = 1Ha​(2)=1.
  9. Theorem 5 (Giacomini–Llibre–Viano) — an inverse integrating factor vanishes on every limit cycle.

Significance

A proof of the goal would settle Problems 6 and 7 of the survey: it would give a uniform bound, depending only on the degree, for the number of algebraic limit cycles, and identify the sharp value. The conjecture is consistent with every example known to the survey: the generic bound of Theorem 4 is sharp for even ddd, and the known non-generic examples exceed the generic bound only in odd degree and by one. Conjecture 2 (d=2d = 2d=2) is its first open case.

On the formal side, the milestones require a reusable library of planar dynamics that is currently absent from Mathlib: periodic orbits and limit cycles of planar vector fields, hyperbolicity via the divergence integral, inverse integrating factors, invariant algebraic curves and Darboux-type arguments, and topological configurations of Jordan curves. Theorems 1, 2, 4 and 5, Proposition 3 and the cubic example are proved in the literature but, as far as the proposal author knows, not formalized; the goal and Conjecture 2 are open.

Difficulty

The obvious route bounds the number of ovals of the invariant curve (Harnack's theorem) and relates the degree of the curve to the degree of the field. This fails because a field of degree ddd can have invariant curves of arbitrarily high degree, so no a-priori degree bound on the curve is available; Theorem 4 obtains one only under the genericity conditions (i)–(v), and the degree-3 example shows that non-generic curves behave differently. On the formal side, the dynamical milestones (Theorems 2 and 5, the cubic example) need Poincaré–Bendixson-type planar topology and uniqueness of solutions, which Mathlib does not yet provide.

Formalization scope

  • Polynomials are MvPolynomial (Fin 2) ℝ with variable 0 as xxx and 1 as yyy; points are ℝ × ℝ. The degree of a field is the maximum of the total degrees of PPP and QQQ, and Ha(d)H_a(d)Ha​(d) ranges over fields of degree at most ddd, matching equation (1) of the survey.
  • Counts of limit cycles are Set.encard values in ℕ∞, so an infinite family is ∞\infty∞, never silently 000; Ha(d)H_a(d)Ha​(d) is an iSup in ℕ∞, so the goal also asserts finiteness.
  • Solutions are global (HasDerivAt at every real time). A limit cycle is isolated among periodic orbits contained in a neighbourhood. An algebraic limit cycle lies in the zero set of some non-zero polynomial, with no degree restriction on the curve.
  • Genericity conditions (i), (iii), (iv) are imposed at complex points of C2\mathbb C^2C2; (ii), (v) use square-freeness and coprimality in R[x,y]\mathbb R[x,y]R[x,y]; "distinct curves" means non-associated polynomials.
  • Hyperbolicity of a limit cycle is encoded by a non-zero divergence integral over one period.
  • Theorem 1(b) is formalized without its final sentence (existence of a Darboux first integral).
  • Trivializing encodings are ruled out: algebraic limit cycles require a non-zero polynomial, and the conjecture is an equality in ℕ∞, not an inequality over a possibly empty family.

Contributions welcome: a planar ODE library (uniqueness, flows, Poincaré–Bendixson), Darboux theory of integrability, and proofs of the classical milestones.

Selected references

  • J. Llibre, Sobre el problema 16 de Hilbert, La Gaceta de la RSME 18 (2015), no. 3, 543–554 (source of this mission).
  • J. Llibre, R. Ramírez, N. Sadovskaia, On the 16th Hilbert problem for algebraic limit cycles, J. Differential Equations 248 (2010), 1401–1409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jde.2009.11.023
  • J. Llibre, G. Rodríguez, Configurations of limit cycles and planar polynomial vector fields, J. Differential Equations 198 (2004), 374–380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jde.2003.10.008
  • C. Christopher, Polynomial vector fields with prescribed algebraic limit cycles, Geom. Dedicata 88 (2001), 255–258. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1013171019668
  • H. Giacomini, J. Llibre, M. Viano, On the nonexistence, existence and uniqueness of limit cycles, Nonlinearity 9 (1996), 501–516. https://doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/9/2/013
  • J. Llibre, Y. Zhao, Algebraic limit cycles in polynomial systems of differential equations, J. Phys. A 40 (2007), 14207–14222. https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8113/40/47/012
  • Yu. Ilyashenko, Centennial history of Hilbert's 16th problem, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 39 (2002), 301–354. https://doi.org/10.1090/s0273-0979-02-00946-1
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, Math. Intelligencer 20 (1998), no. 2, 7–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf03025291
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains II: The Single-Unit Single-Customer DecompositionTextbook

Motivation

A base-stock (order-up-to) policy orders, in every period, exactly enough to bring the inventory position (stock on hand plus stock on order minus backorders) up to a target level. It is the policy used in practice for repairable and consumable service parts, and the analysis of every later chapter of Muckstadt's book assumes it. Its optimality is therefore a foundational question, and there are three classical ways to prove it.

  • 1960, Clark and Scarf proved optimality of echelon base-stock policies for finite-horizon serial systems by dynamic programming, decomposing the cost into one term per echelon (Management Science 6(4)).
  • 1984, Federgruen and Zipkin gave a lower-bound argument for the infinite-horizon average-cost case (Operations Research 32(4)); Chen and Song (2001) used it for Markov-modulated demand (Operations Research 49(2)).
  • 2008, Muharremoglu and Tsitsiklis introduced the single-unit single-customer approach: every unit of stock is paired with one future customer, and the inventory problem splits into countably many independent two-action problems (Operations Research 56(5)).

This mission formalizes the third approach, in the finite-horizon single-location form presented in Section 2.2.1 of Muckstadt (2005).

Setting

A single item is reviewed in periods n=1,…,Nn = 1, \dots, Nn=1,…,N. An exogenous, time-homogeneous Markov chain sns_nsn​ on a finite set Σ\SigmaΣ is observed at the start of period nnn; given sn=ss_n = ssn​=s, the demand Dn∈{0,1,2,… }D_n \in \{0,1,2,\dots\}Dn​∈{0,1,2,…} has law κ(s,⋅)\kappa(s,\cdot)κ(s,⋅) and is independent of sn+1s_{n+1}sn+1​. Excess demand is backordered.

Every unit of demand is a customer, and customers are indexed in arrival order, the v0v_0v0​ initially waiting customers first. A customer's distance is 000 once served, 111 while waiting, and 2,3,…2, 3, \dots2,3,… for future customers in the order they will arrive. Units are indexed by location: 000 (used), 111 (on hand), 2,…,m2, \dots, m2,…,m (in transit) and m+1m+1m+1 (at the supplier, which holds countably many units). The state is

xn=(sn,(z1n,y1n),(z2n,y2n),…),x_n = \big(s_n, (z_{1n}, y_{1n}), (z_{2n}, y_{2n}), \dots\big),xn​=(sn​,(z1n​,y1n​),(z2n​,y2n​),…),

with zjnz_{jn}zjn​ the location of unit jjj and yjny_{jn}yjn​ the distance of customer jjj. In period nnn: units in transit move one location closer and the released units move from m+1m+1m+1 to mmm (so an order is on hand m−1m-1m−1 periods later); the demand DnD_nDn​ brings the customers at distances 2,…,Dn+12, \dots, D_n+12,…,Dn​+1 to distance 111 and moves the others DnD_nDn​ steps closer; units on hand serve waiting customers, lowest indices first; then hhh is charged per unit on hand and bbb per waiting customer, with 0<h<b0 < h < b0<h<b. The criterion is the expected cost over the NNN periods, discounted by α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1].

A policy for the whole system S\mathcal SS chooses a finite set of units at the supplier to release. It is monotone if it releases lower-indexed units first, and committed if unit jjj only ever serves customer jjj. The subsystem Sw\mathcal S_wSw​ is unit www with customer www under commitment, with state xnw=(sn,zwn,ywn)x^w_n = (s_n, z_{wn}, y_{wn})xnw​=(sn​,zwn​,ywn​) and actions Release and Hold. The set Rn∗(s,y)R^*_n(s,y)Rn∗​(s,y) contains the optimal actions of a subsystem whose unit is at the supplier and whose customer is at distance yyy, and the critical distance is

y∗(n,s)=max⁡{ y:Rn∗(s,y)∋Release }.y^*(n,s) = \max\{\, y : R^*_n(s,y) \ni \mathit{Release} \,\}.y∗(n,s)=max{y:Rn∗​(s,y)∋Release}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 29)

Every policy that, in each period nnn and Markov state sns_nsn​, releases the lowest-indexed units at the supplier to raise the inventory position to

y∗(n,sn)−1y^*(n, s_n) - 1y∗(n,sn​)−1

is optimal for S\mathcal SS among all policies, from every starting state. Such a policy exists. The levels are not fixed numbers but the critical distances of the single-unit problem, so the goal asserts the structure of an optimal policy and identifies its levels, without committing to any constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 26): some monotone policy is optimal, every monotone policy is committed, and so some committed policy is optimal.
  2. Theorem 4 (p. 27): the optimal cost of S\mathcal SS is the sum over www of the optimal costs of Sw\mathcal S_wSw​,
V1S(s,x1)=∑wV1(s,(zw1,yw1)),V^{\mathcal S}_1(s, x_1) = \sum_{w} V_1\big(s, (z_{w1}, y_{w1})\big),V1S​(s,x1​)=w∑​V1​(s,(zw1​,yw1​)),

and managing every subsystem independently and optimally is optimal for S\mathcal SS. 3. Lemma 2 (p. 28): Rn∗(s,y+1)={Release}R^*_n(s, y+1) = \{\mathit{Release}\}Rn∗​(s,y+1)={Release} implies Release∈Rn∗(s,y)\mathit{Release} \in R^*_n(s, y)Release∈Rn∗​(s,y). 4. Section 2.2.1.2.2 (p. 29): the critical distance policy, release if and only if y≤y∗(n,s)y \le y^*(n,s)y≤y∗(n,s), is optimal for every subsystem.

Significance

The result shows that under Markov-modulated demand a single-location system is optimally run by a state-dependent base-stock policy. The same unit–customer argument gives echelon base-stock optimality in serial systems with noncrossing stochastic lead times (Sections 2.2.2–2.2.3). The decomposition also yields the levels themselves: they are the critical distances of a two-action problem, which can be solved one customer at a time.

The theorems are proved in the literature (Muharremoglu and Tsitsiklis 2008) and in the book. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of any base-stock optimality theorem exists, by dynamic programming or by decomposition. The book's proof is informal in three places a formalization has to settle:

  • Lemma 1 is asserted as "clearly" true;
  • Lemma 2's proof by contradiction covers only uniquely optimal releases, while the critical distance policy also needs the case of ties;
  • the passage from the subsystem policy to the inventory position (Theorem 5) is an "intuitive argument".

A formal development makes each of these precise.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says that costs are linear, so the cost of S\mathcal SS is the sum of unit–customer costs and everything decouples. That is only half of Theorem 4. The pairing of unit jjj with customer jjj holds only under monotone policies, and a general policy for S\mathcal SS observes the whole infinite state xnx_nxn​, not just xnwx^w_nxnw​. The lower bound therefore needs Lemma 1 together with the fact that extra information about the demand history does not help a Markov decision problem. The upper bound needs the lowest-index matching to cost no more than committed matching.

The second difficulty is that the threshold structure is not the obvious consequence of Lemma 2. The set of distances at which releasing is optimal must be shown to be an initial segment {1,…,y∗}\{1, \dots, y^*\}{1,…,y∗} when ties are allowed. Unbounded demand makes that set possibly unbounded (it is, in the last m−1m-1m−1 periods). Finally, the release decisions of the subsystems must be counted to recover an inventory position, which uses the invariant that future customers occupy consecutive distances.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the namespace ServiceParts.UnitDecomp, with three definition files.

Model. Model bundles the chain, the demand law, mmm, hhh, bbb and α\alphaα with the standing assumptions 1≤m1 \le m1≤m, 0<h<b0 < h < b0<h<b, 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1, together with the per-unit and per-customer motions and a generic finite-horizon expected-cost recursion. Costs are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Subsystem. Subsystem defines a subsystem, its optimal cost, Rn∗R^*_nRn∗​, y∗(n,s)y^*(n,s)y∗(n,s) and the critical distance policy.

System. System defines S\mathcal SS with lowest-index matching, its policies (finite release sets), monotone and committed policies, starting states, the inventory position and the order-up-to release.

Conventions and pinnings:

  • Indexing. Units and customers are indexed from 000; Lean index jjj is the book's j+1j+1j+1.
  • Policy class. Policies are Markov: functions of the period, the Markov state and the configuration, as on p. 25.
  • Optimality. Optimal means attaining the infimum over all policies for S\mathcal SS. Restricting the class to monotone or base-stock policies would make Theorem 5 circular and is ruled out.
  • Starting states. The book's "any starting state x1x_1x1​" is the configuration built on pp. 23–24 from v0v_0v0​ and the stock at locations 1,…,m1, \dots, m1,…,m. For arbitrarily labelled states Theorem 4 is false.
  • Critical distance. y∗(n,s)y^*(n,s)y∗(n,s) is a supremum in N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}. Where it is ∞\infty∞ (a released unit cannot arrive before the horizon), Theorem 5 leaves the policy free.
  • Distance 0. Lemma 2 and the optimality of RnR_nRn​ are stated for customers at distance at least 1. At distance 0 with the unit at the supplier (a configuration committed policies never reach), both are false as printed.

Corrections to the book:

  • h>0h > 0h>0 is added. With h=0h = 0h=0 an optimal policy with finite orders need not exist, so Theorem 5 fails.
  • Chain structure is pinned. The chain's ergodicity is unused on a finite horizon and omitted. The conditional independence of DnD_nDn​ and sn+1s_{n+1}sn+1​ given sns_nsn​ is added as a reading of "given sns_nsn​, the distribution of DnD_nDn​ is known".
  • Vacuous corner. If some state's demand has infinite mean, every policy may cost ∞\infty∞ and the optimality statements hold vacuously.

Out of scope: stochastic noncrossing lead times (Section 2.2.2), serial systems (Section 2.2.3; compare the disproved platform statement SupplyChainTheory.clark_scarf_sequential), and continuous review (Section 2.2.4, which the book calls intuitive).

Proofs of any milestone are welcome. A reusable by-product would be a general lemma that Markov policies are optimal among history-dependent ones for finite-horizon problems with countable randomness and costs in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Section 2.2, pp. 22–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • A. Muharremoglu and J. N. Tsitsiklis, A single-unit decomposition approach to multiechelon inventory systems, Operations Research 56(5), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0620
  • A. J. Clark and H. Scarf, Optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem, Management Science 6(4), 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • A. Federgruen and P. Zipkin, Computational issues in an infinite-horizon, multiechelon inventory model, Operations Research 32(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • F. Chen and J.-S. Song, Optimal policies for multiechelon inventory problems with Markov-modulated demand, Operations Research 49(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.49.2.226.13528
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains I: Optimality of Order-Up-To Policies by Dynamic ProgrammingTextbook

Motivation

A stocking point that reviews its inventory once per period and must decide how much to order is the basic unit of every service parts supply chain: each warehouse, each repair depot and each forward location in the networks studied later in Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) faces this decision for thousands of items. The practical rule used everywhere is the order-up-to (base-stock) rule: bring the inventory position up to a fixed target level whenever it falls below it, and order nothing otherwise. Chapter 2 of the book justifies this rule for a single item with linear costs, following the dynamic-programming argument of Karlin and Scarf, and the rest of the book takes the rule as given.

Timeline. Arrow, Harris and Marschak posed the periodic-review inventory problem as a dynamic program in 1951 (Econometrica). Bellman, Glicksberg and Gross showed in 1955 that with linear ordering cost and convex expected holding and shortage costs the optimal policy has a critical-number form (Management Science). Karlin and Scarf (1958) extended the analysis to a positive lead time, the setting of the book's Theorems 1–3. Veinott (1965) gave conditions under which a base-stock policy is optimal in multi-product, nonstationary models (Management Science).

Setting

One item is stocked at one location. At the start of each period the inventory position yyy is observed and a quantity u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 is ordered; with lead time one period it arrives at the start of the next period. Demand in each period is independent of other periods and has a density ggg on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) that is positive and continuous. Unmet demand is backordered. Costs are linear: ccc per unit ordered, hhh per unit on hand at the end of a period, bbb per unit backordered at the end of a period, and future costs are discounted by α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1). The one-period cost is

L(y)={h∫0y(y−x)g(x) dx+b∫y∞(x−y)g(x) dx,y>0,b∫0∞(x−y)g(x) dx,y≤0.L(y) = \begin{cases} h\displaystyle\int_0^y (y-x)g(x)\,dx + b\int_y^\infty (x-y)g(x)\,dx, & y > 0,\\[1mm] b\displaystyle\int_0^\infty (x-y)g(x)\,dx, & y \le 0. \end{cases}L(y)=⎩⎨⎧​h∫0y​(y−x)g(x)dx+b∫y∞​(x−y)g(x)dx,b∫0∞​(x−y)g(x)dx,​y>0,y≤0.​

The book assumes throughout that b>1−αα cb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\,cb>α1−α​c: the backorder cost outweighs the saving from deferring a purchase.

The nnn-period value functions are f1=Lf_1 = Lf1​=L and, for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2,

fn(y)=min⁡u≥0{c u+L(y)+α∫0∞fn−1(y+u−x) g(x) dx}.f_n(y) = \min_{u \ge 0}\Big\{ c\,u + L(y) + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_{n-1}(y+u-x)\,g(x)\,dx \Big\}.fn​(y)=u≥0min​{cu+L(y)+α∫0∞​fn−1​(y+u−x)g(x)dx}.

An order uuu is optimal at yyy if it attains this minimum over all u≥0u \ge 0u≥0. The order-up-to rule with level sss orders u(y)=max⁡{0,s−y}u(y) = \max\{0, s-y\}u(y)=max{0,s−y}. The marginal function of eq. (2.8) is Fn(w)=c+α∫0∞fn′(w−x) g(x) dxF_n(w) = c + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_n'(w-x)\,g(x)\,dxFn​(w)=c+α∫0∞​fn′​(w−x)g(x)dx. In Lean these are Model, Model.L, Model.f, Model.IsOptimalOrder, Model.IsOrderUpToOptimal and Model.F in the namespace ServiceParts.BaseStock.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 18) in its nnn-period form

For every horizon n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, either there is a real level sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ with

un∗(y)=max⁡{0, sn∗−y} optimal for every y,u_n^*(y) = \max\{0,\ s_n^* - y\} \ \text{optimal for every } y,un∗​(y)=max{0, sn∗​−y} optimal for every y,

or ordering nothing is optimal for every yyy (level −∞-\infty−∞); and there is N≥2N \ge 2N≥2 such that the level is real for all n≥Nn \ge Nn≥N. No value of sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ is fixed: the goal asserts the shape of the optimal policy only.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. LLL is convex (p. 21).
  2. Every fnf_nfn​, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, is convex (p. 19, property (c)).
  3. Every fnf_nfn​ is differentiable with −(c+b)≤fn′≤h/(1−α)-(c+b) \le f_n' \le h/(1-\alpha)−(c+b)≤fn′​≤h/(1−α) (p. 20).
  4. Property (b): given an optimal real level sss for horizon n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, fn′=−c+L′f_n' = -c + L'fn′​=−c+L′ below sss and fn′=L′+α∫0∞fn−1′(⋅−x)g(x) dxf_n' = L' + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_{n-1}'(\cdot - x)g(x)\,dxfn′​=L′+α∫0∞​fn−1′​(⋅−x)g(x)dx from sss on (p. 19).
  5. Given such a level, Fn(w)→(1−α)c−bα<0F_n(w) \to (1-\alpha)c - b\alpha < 0Fn​(w)→(1−α)c−bα<0 as w→−∞w \to -\inftyw→−∞ (p. 19).
  6. Property (a): optimal real levels are nondecreasing in the horizon, sn∗≤sn+1∗s_n^* \le s_{n+1}^*sn∗​≤sn+1∗​ (p. 18).

Significance

The theorem reduces an infinite-dimensional control problem, a choice of order quantity for every possible inventory position, to one number per period. Every later chapter of the book (Palm's theorem for (s−1,s)(s-1,s)(s−1,s) policies, METRIC-type stock level optimization, allocation in multi-echelon systems) parameterizes policies by such stock levels; this is where the book justifies that parameterization.

The result is classical and proved in many texts. On Prove2Me the mission produces a machine-checked finite-horizon version with a continuous demand density, including the calculus the proof needs: convexity of an expected cost defined by integrals against a density, differentiation under the integral sign in the recursion, and the one-sided behaviour of the value function at the order-up-to level. Existing platform results on base-stock optimality (Veinott's multi-product model, advance demand information) use different models and different arguments; none covers this recursion.

Difficulty

The argument is an induction on nnn whose hypothesis carries convexity, the derivative formula (b), and bounds on fn′f_n'fn′​. The delicate step is the existence of a finite root of FnF_nFn​: its limit at −∞-\infty−∞ depends on whether the previous level was finite. For n=1n = 1n=1 nothing is ordered and the limit is c−bαc - b\alphac−bα, which the assumption b>1−ααcb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}cb>α1−α​c does not make negative. The book's base case ("left to the reader") therefore fails when c>αbc > \alpha bc>αb: with α=12\alpha = \tfrac12α=21​, c=1c = 1c=1, b=32b = \tfrac32b=23​ the two-period problem never orders. The goal is corrected accordingly.

Two properties the book's induction also carries are not usable as printed. Property (d), fn′≤fn−1′f_n' \le f_{n-1}'fn′​≤fn−1′​, is false: for large yyy, fn′(y)f_n'(y)fn′​(y) approaches h(1+α+⋯+αn−1)h(1 + \alpha + \dots + \alpha^{n-1})h(1+α+⋯+αn−1), which increases with nnn. The second-derivative clause of property (c) fails at y=0y = 0y=0 whenever g(0+)>0g(0^+) > 0g(0+)>0. A solver cannot follow the printed induction step for step; property (a), which the book derives from (d), is true and is a milestone in its own right.

Formalization scope

  • Horizon. The book states Theorem 2 for "the optimal policy" without a horizon. Its proof is an induction on a finite horizon, and the passage n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ is left as a conjecture (p. 21). The goal is the finite-horizon theorem; no infinite-horizon value function is constructed.
  • Lead time. The proof sets τ=1\tau = 1τ=1 "to simplify notation"; so does the formalization. Theorem 1 (dependence on the inventory position only) and Theorem 3 (general τ\tauτ, whose level equation is the conjectured infinite-horizon one) are not stated.
  • Level −∞-\infty−∞. The goal allows "never order" as the order-up-to rule with level −∞-\infty−∞ and adds eventual finiteness; see Difficulty.
  • Added hypotheses. c≥0c \ge 0c≥0, h>0h > 0h>0 (the book uses lim⁡w→∞fn′(w−x)>0\lim_{w\to\infty} f_n'(w - x) > 0limw→∞​fn′​(w−x)>0), 0<α0 < \alpha0<α (the book divides by α\alphaα), and a finite mean ∫0∞x g(x) dx<∞\int_0^\infty x\,g(x)\,dx < \infty∫0∞​xg(x)dx<∞ (without it LLL is infinite). All are fields of Model, together with positivity and continuity of ggg on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), ∫0∞g=1\int_0^\infty g = 1∫0∞​g=1, and b>1−ααcb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}cb>α1−α​c.
  • Minimum and derivatives. fnf_nfn​ is defined with the infimum over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 of a nonnegative quantity; optimality is always against every u′≥0u' \ge 0u′≥0. Statements about fn′f_n'fn′​ assert differentiability (Differentiable, HasDerivAt) and do not read deriv as evidence of it.
  • Levels. The book's sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ is "the unique solution of (2.6)"; milestones take any real level at which the order-up-to rule is optimal.

A recursion in which ordering is restricted to order-up-to rules, or in which fnf_nfn​ is defined through sn∗s_n^*sn∗​, would make the goal a tautology; here fnf_nfn​ is defined by minimization over all u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 and optimality is checked against all orders.

Needed infrastructure: convexity and differentiation of parametric integrals against a density on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and minimization of a differentiable convex function over a half-line. Both are reusable for the other stochastic inventory missions on the platform. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, 2005, Chapter 2, Section 2.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in K. J. Arrow, S. Karlin and H. Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958 (no DOI).
  • K. J. Arrow, T. Harris and J. Marschak, Optimal inventory policy, Econometrica 19(3), 1951, 250–272. https://doi.org/10.2307/1906814
  • R. Bellman, I. Glicksberg and O. Gross, On the optimal inventory equation, Management Science 2(1), 1955, 83–104. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2.1.83
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., Optimal policy for a multi-product, dynamic, nonstationary inventory problem, Management Science 12(3), 1965, 206–222. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.3.206
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization III: Stochastic Quasi-Féjer Sequences and the Stochastic Quasigradient Projection MethodTextbook

Motivation

Many optimization problems in operations research have an objective that is an expectation, F0(x)=Ef0(x,ω)F^0(x)=E f^0(x,\omega)F0(x)=Ef0(x,ω), over a random parameter ω\omegaω whose distribution is known only through samples or is too complex to integrate. Two-stage stochastic programs, inventory and reliability models, and simulation-based design all have this form. Neither F0F^0F0 nor its subgradients can be evaluated exactly, but a random vector whose conditional mean is close to a subgradient is often cheap to compute: a sample subgradient of f0(⋅,ω)f^0(\cdot,\omega)f0(⋅,ω), or a finite-difference quotient of two sampled values.

Stochastic quasigradient (SQG) methods, developed by Ermoliev and co-workers in Kiev from the late 1960s, use such vectors in place of subgradients. They extend the stochastic approximation procedures of Robbins–Monro (1951) and Kiefer–Wolfowitz (1952) to nonsmooth convex objectives, general convex constraints, and directions whose conditional mean is biased by a vanishing amount. This mission formalizes the basic convergence theory of the simplest SQG method, the projection method, as presented by Yu. Ermoliev in Chapter 6 of the IIASA volume Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization (Springer 1988).

Timeline (as cited in the chapter's bibliography).

  • 1951–1954: Robbins and Monro, Kiefer and Wolfowitz, Dvoretzky and Blum prove convergence of stochastic approximation for unconstrained smooth problems.
  • 1962–1967: Shor introduces the generalized gradient (subgradient) method; Ermoliev (Kibernetika 4, 1966) and Polyak (Soviet Math. Doklady 8, 1967) prove its convergence.
  • 1967–1969: Ermoliev and Nekrylova introduce stochastic subgradients; Ermoliev ("On the stochastic quasi-gradient method and stochastic quasi-Feyer sequences", Kibernetika 2, 1969) introduces stochastic quasi-Féjer sequences.
  • 1976: Ermoliev's monograph Stochastic Programming Methods (Nauka) contains the proof of Theorem 6.1 (p. 98).
  • 1988: the survey chapter formalized here presents the projection method, Theorems 6.1 and 6.2, and an efficiency estimate for the averaged iterate.

Setting

Let X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be a nonempty convex compact set and F0:Rn→RF^0:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb RF0:Rn→R convex and continuous on XXX. The optimal set is X∗={x∈X:F0(x)≤F0(y) ∀y∈X}X^*=\{x\in X: F^0(x)\le F^0(y)\ \forall y\in X\}X∗={x∈X:F0(x)≤F0(y) ∀y∈X}. The projection onto XXX is πX(y)=argmin⁡{∥y−x∥2:x∈X}\pi_X(y)=\operatorname{argmin}\{\|y-x\|^2:x\in X\}πX​(y)=argmin{∥y−x∥2:x∈X}.

On a probability space, the stochastic quasigradient projection method produces random vectors x0,x1,…x^0,x^1,\dotsx0,x1,… by

xs+1=πX[xs−ρs ξ0(s)],s=0,1,…(6.11)x^{s+1}=\pi_X\big[x^s-\rho_s\,\xi^0(s)\big],\qquad s=0,1,\dots \tag{6.11}xs+1=πX​[xs−ρs​ξ0(s)],s=0,1,…(6.11)

where ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 is a step size and ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) a random direction. Write E{⋅∣x0,…,xs}E\{\cdot\mid x^0,\dots,x^s\}E{⋅∣x0,…,xs} for conditional expectation given the history σ(x0,…,xs)\sigma(x^0,\dots,x^s)σ(x0,…,xs). The direction is a stochastic quasigradient if, for every x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗,

F0(x∗)−F0(xs)≥⟨E{ξ0(s)∣x0,…,xs}, x∗−xs⟩+γ0(s)a.s.,(6.12)F^0(x^*)-F^0(x^s)\ge\big\langle E\{\xi^0(s)\mid x^0,\dots,x^s\},\,x^*-x^s\big\rangle+\gamma_0(s)\quad\text{a.s.}, \tag{6.12}F0(x∗)−F0(xs)≥⟨E{ξ0(s)∣x0,…,xs},x∗−xs⟩+γ0​(s)a.s.,(6.12)

where the error γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) is a function of the history. If the conditional mean of ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) is a subgradient plus a bias b0(s)b^0(s)b0(s), then (6.12) holds with γ0(s)=−⟨b0(s),x∗−xs⟩\gamma^0(s)=-\langle b^0(s),x^*-x^s\rangleγ0(s)=−⟨b0(s),x∗−xs⟩ (6.13).

A sequence of random vectors z0,z1,…z^0,z^1,\dotsz0,z1,… is a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for Z⊆RnZ\subseteq\mathbb R^nZ⊆Rn if E∥z0∥2<∞E\|z^0\|^2<\inftyE∥z0∥2<∞ and there are random rs≥0r_s\ge0rs​≥0 with ∑sErs<∞\sum_s E r_s<\infty∑s​Ers​<∞ such that for all z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z

E{∥z−zs+1∥2∣z0,…,zs}≤∥z−zs∥2+rs.(6.14)E\{\|z-z^{s+1}\|^2\mid z^0,\dots,z^s\}\le\|z-z^s\|^2+r_s. \tag{6.14}E{∥z−zs+1∥2∣z0,…,zs}≤∥z−zs∥2+rs​.(6.14)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.2

If, with probability 1, ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 and ∑sρs=∞\sum_s\rho_s=\infty∑s​ρs​=∞, and

∑s=0∞E{ρs∣γ0(s)∣+ρs2∥ξ0(s)∥2}<∞,(6.15)\sum_{s=0}^\infty E\{\rho_s|\gamma_0(s)|+\rho_s^2\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\}<\infty, \tag{6.15}s=0∑∞​E{ρs​∣γ0​(s)∣+ρs2​∥ξ0(s)∥2}<∞,(6.15)

then with probability 1 the iterates converge and lim⁡sxs∈X∗\lim_s x^s\in X^*lims​xs∈X∗.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 6.1 (a)–(c). For a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for ZZZ: ∥z−zs+1∥2\|z-z^{s+1}\|^2∥z−zs+1∥2 converges a.s. and E∥z−zs∥2E\|z-z^s\|^2E∥z−zs∥2 is bounded, for each z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z; accumulation points exist a.s. (for Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅); and a.s. ZZZ lies in the hyperplane equidistant from any two distinct accumulation points outside ZZZ.
  2. Eq. (6.13). Biased stochastic subgradients satisfy (6.12).
  3. One-step inequality (p. 145): E{∥x∗−xs+1∥2∣⋅}≤∥x∗−xs∥2+2ρs⟨E{ξ0(s)∣⋅},x∗−xs⟩+E{ρs2∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}E\{\|x^*-x^{s+1}\|^2\mid\cdot\}\le\|x^*-x^s\|^2+2\rho_s\langle E\{\xi^0(s)\mid\cdot\},x^*-x^s\rangle+E\{\rho_s^2\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\mid\cdot\}E{∥x∗−xs+1∥2∣⋅}≤∥x∗−xs∥2+2ρs​⟨E{ξ0(s)∣⋅},x∗−xs⟩+E{ρs2​∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅} for x∗∈Xx^*\in Xx∗∈X.
  4. Quasi-Féjer property (p. 145): the iterates of (6.11) form a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for X∗X^*X∗.
  5. Efficiency estimate (p. 147), for deterministic ρk\rho_kρk​ and xˉs=∑k≤sρkxk/∑k≤sρk\bar x^s=\sum_{k\le s}\rho_kx^k/\sum_{k\le s}\rho_kxˉs=∑k≤s​ρk​xk/∑k≤s​ρk​:
EF0(xˉs)−F0(x∗)≤(2∑k=0sρk)−1[E∥x∗−x0∥2+∑k=0sE(2ρk∣γ0(k)∣+ρk2∥ξ0(k)∥2)].E F^0(\bar x^s)-F^0(x^*)\le\Big(2\sum_{k=0}^s\rho_k\Big)^{-1}\Big[E\|x^*-x^0\|^2+\sum_{k=0}^s E\big(2\rho_k|\gamma_0(k)|+\rho_k^2\|\xi^0(k)\|^2\big)\Big].EF0(xˉs)−F0(x∗)≤(2k=0∑s​ρk​)−1[E∥x∗−x0∥2+k=0∑s​E(2ρk​∣γ0​(k)∣+ρk2​∥ξ0(k)∥2)].

Significance

Theorem 6.2 is the prototype convergence theorem for SQG methods. Its hypotheses allow random step sizes chosen from the history, nonsmooth objectives, and directions with a bias that vanishes fast enough; its conclusion is convergence of the iterates themselves to a single optimal point, not only convergence of function values or of dist⁡(xs,X∗)\operatorname{dist}(x^s,X^*)dist(xs,X∗). The later chapters of the same volume (adaptive step sizes, Chapters 17–18; nonstationary problems, §6.4) reuse the same framework. Theorem 6.1 isolates the probabilistic content in a form that applies to any algorithm with a quasi-Féjer inequality. The efficiency estimate gives a non-asymptotic accuracy bound for the averaged iterate.

The results are classical and proved in the literature: Theorem 6.1 in Ermoliev (1976, p. 98), Theorem 6.2 in this chapter (pp. 145–146). To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has conditional expectations and the a.s. martingale convergence theorem, but no Robbins–Siegmund-type almost-supermartingale lemma and no stochastic subgradient method. A formal proof of this mission would supply both.

Difficulty

The deterministic argument for projected subgradient methods compares ∥x∗−xs+1∥\|x^*-x^{s+1}\|∥x∗−xs+1∥ with ∥x∗−xs∥\|x^*-x^s\|∥x∗−xs∥ for a fixed x∗x^*x∗. In the stochastic setting this comparison holds only in conditional mean, with a perturbation rsr_srs​ that is random, and the distances converge only almost surely, with an exceptional null set that depends on x∗x^*x∗. Since X∗X^*X∗ is typically uncountable, "for every x∗x^*x∗, almost surely" does not immediately give "almost surely, for every x∗x^*x∗", and it is the second form that identifies a single limit. A second difficulty is that ∑ρs(F0(xs)−F0(x∗))<∞\sum\rho_s(F^0(x^s)-F^0(x^*))<\infty∑ρs​(F0(xs)−F0(x∗))<∞ only yields a subsequence along which F0F^0F0 approaches its minimum; passing from there to convergence of the whole sequence is exactly what part (c) of Theorem 6.1 is for.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The probability space is an arbitrary measurable space with a probability measure. πX\pi_XπX​ is a chosen minimizer of ∥y−x∥2\|y-x\|^2∥y−x∥2 over XXX (unique for nonempty closed convex XXX). The history is the σ\sigmaσ-algebra generated by x0,…,xsx^0,\dots,x^sx0,…,xs; ρs\rho_sρs​ and γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) are measurable with respect to it.
  • Directions ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) are integrable and random vectors are measurable; conditional expectations are Mathlib's condExp. The quasi-Féjer definition requires square integrability of every zsz^szs (implied by the book's definition when Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅), so no conditional expectation is taken of a non-integrable function.
  • X≠∅X\ne\emptysetX=∅ and x0∈Xx^0\in Xx0∈X are stated; Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅ is added in Theorem 6.1 (b), which is false without it.
  • γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) does not depend on x∗x^*x∗; the x∗x^*x∗-dependent error of (6.13) is dominated on a bounded XXX by ∥b0(s)∥diam⁡X\|b^0(s)\|\operatorname{diam}X∥b0(s)∥diamX.
  • (6.15) keeps its mixed form: ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 and ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞ almost surely, and a deterministic sum of expectations (lower Lebesgue integrals) finite.
  • Explicit constants. The book's "CCC" in the efficiency estimate is instantiated from its proof: 222 on ρk∣γ0(k)∣\rho_k|\gamma_0(k)|ρk​∣γ0​(k)∣ and 111 on ρk2∥ξ0(k)∥2\rho_k^2\|\xi^0(k)\|^2ρk2​∥ξ0(k)∥2. The unspecified CCC before the quasi-Féjer sentence is replaced by the existence of summable rsr_srs​.
  • Typo corrections. The one-step inequality on p. 145 prints ρsE{∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}\rho_sE\{\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\mid\cdot\}ρs​E{∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}; it is ρs2\rho_s^2ρs2​. The efficiency estimate on p. 147 omits EEE before the last sum; it is restored. "ρk\rho_kρk​ independent of (x0,…,xk)(x^0,\dots,x^k)(x0,…,xk)" is read as deterministic step sizes.
  • A trivializing formalization is excluded: the goal does not replace ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) by an exact subgradient, does not set γ0≡0\gamma_0\equiv0γ0​≡0, and concludes convergence of xsx^sxs to a point of X∗X^*X∗ rather than dist⁡(xs,X∗)→0\operatorname{dist}(x^s,X^*)\to0dist(xs,X∗)→0.
  • Reusable infrastructure: a Robbins–Siegmund lemma for nonnegative almost-supermartingales, the nonexpansiveness of πX\pi_XπX​, and Theorem 6.1 itself, which applies to any quasi-Féjer algorithm (Chapter 6 §6.4 and Chapters 17–18 of the same book). Contributions of these general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. Ermoliev, "Stochastic Quasigradient Methods", in Yu. Ermoliev and R. J-B Wets (eds.), Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 10, Springer 1988, Ch. 6, §6.1–6.2 (pp. 141–147). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • Yu. Ermoliev, "On the stochastic quasi-gradient method and stochastic quasi-Feyer sequences", Kibernetika 2 (1969) (in Russian; English translation in Cybernetics). Reference [3] of the chapter.
  • Yu. Ermoliev, Stochastic Programming Methods, Nauka, Moscow, 1976 (in Russian); Theorem 6.1 is on p. 98. Reference [5] of the chapter.
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, "A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications", in J. S. Rustagi (ed.), Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press, 1971, 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • H. Robbins and S. Monro, "A stochastic approximation method", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22 (1951) 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
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Introduction to the Scenario Approach V: Support Sets Certify the Violation of Nonconvex Scenario SolutionsTextbook

Why certify nonconvex scenario solutions

The scenario approach replaces an optimization problem with uncertain constraints θ∈Θδ\theta\in\Theta_\deltaθ∈Θδ​, δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ, by the program that enforces only NNN constraints Θδ1,…,ΘδN\Theta_{\delta_1},\dots,\Theta_{\delta_N}Θδ1​​,…,ΘδN​​ drawn at random from the distribution P\mathbb PP of the uncertainty. Its solution θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is then judged by its violation, the probability that a new instance δ\deltaδ is not satisfied. For convex programs in Rd\mathbb R^dRd the violation is controlled by the dimension ddd alone (Calafiore and Campi 2006; Campi and Garatti 2008), because a convex program has at most ddd support constraints. Many problems where the scenario approach is used in practice are not convex: control with quantized inputs, mixed-integer design, classification with nonconvex losses, and decisions over infinite-dimensional or unstructured sets. For those programs no a priori bound on the number of constraints that determine the solution exists.

Timeline, as recorded in Chapter 8 of Campi and Garatti's textbook:

  • 2006–2008: the violation of convex scenario solutions is bounded, and then characterized exactly, in terms of ddd.
  • 2018: the wait-and-judge theory (Campi and Garatti, Math. Programming 2018) evaluates the violation from the number of support constraints counted after solving the program; it extends to nonconvex programs but requires a nondegeneracy assumption.
  • 2018: Campi, Garatti and Ramponi (IEEE TAC 2018) prove a bound in terms of the size of any support set, with no convexity and no nondegeneracy assumption. This is the result formalized here, stated in the book as Eq. (8.15).

Setting

Let Θ\ThetaΘ be a generic set; it may be an infinite-dimensional space or a set with no algebraic structure. Let f:Θ→Rf:\Theta\to\mathbb Rf:Θ→R be a cost and Θδ⊆Θ\Theta_\delta\subseteq\ThetaΘδ​⊆Θ constraint sets indexed by δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ, where Δ\DeltaΔ carries a probability P\mathbb PP. Neither fff nor the Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​ is required to be convex. With a sample δ1,…,δN\delta_1,\dots,\delta_Nδ1​,…,δN​ drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the scenario program is

min⁡θ∈Θf(θ)subject toθ∈⋂i=1,…,NΘδi,(8.12)\min_{\theta\in\Theta} f(\theta)\quad\text{subject to}\quad \theta\in\bigcap_{i=1,\dots,N}\Theta_{\delta_i},\tag{8.12}θ∈Θmin​f(θ)subject toθ∈i=1,…,N⋂​Θδi​​,(8.12)

and θ∗\theta^*θ∗ denotes its solution, assumed to exist and be unique for every sample.

The violation of a decision is V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∉Θδ}V(\theta)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta:\theta\notin\Theta_\delta\}V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∈/Θδ​} (Definition 3.1).

A support set (Definition 8.8) is a subset {Θδi1,…,Θδik}\{\Theta_{\delta_{i_1}},\dots,\Theta_{\delta_{i_k}}\}{Θδi1​​​,…,Θδik​​​} of the constraints such that the program with only these constraints in place has the same solution θ∗\theta^*θ∗ as the program with all constraints. The full set of constraints is always a support set; a support set need not be minimal (of smallest cardinality) or irreducible (with no removable element). Let σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ be the cardinality of the support set returned, for every sample, by some fixed algorithm.

Formalization targets

Goal: the support-set bound, Eq. (8.15)

For every function ϵ:{0,1,…,N}→[0,1]\epsilon:\{0,1,\dots,N\}\to[0,1]ϵ:{0,1,…,N}→[0,1] with ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1,

PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤∑k=0N−1(Nk) (1−ϵ(k))N−k.\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*)>\epsilon(\sigma^*)\}\le\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}\binom Nk\,(1-\epsilon(k))^{N-k}.PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤k=0∑N−1​(kN​)(1−ϵ(k))N−k.

The level function ϵ\epsilonϵ is free: the statement is one inequality per admissible ϵ\epsilonϵ, and it holds for any algorithm producing support sets. This is the weakest form that carries the whole result.

Milestone: the level function for a confidence β\betaβ, Eq. (8.16)

For β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] let

ϵ(k)={1k=N,1−βN(Nk)N−kotherwise.\epsilon(k)=\begin{cases}1 & k=N,\\ 1-\sqrt[N-k]{\dfrac{\beta}{N\binom Nk}} & \text{otherwise.}\end{cases}ϵ(k)=⎩⎨⎧​11−N−kN(kN​)β​​​k=N,otherwise.​

The arithmetic half states that ϵ\epsilonϵ maps {0,…,N}\{0,\dots,N\}{0,…,N} into [0,1][0,1][0,1], ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1, and the right-hand side of (8.15) equals β\betaβ (for N≥1N\ge1N≥1). The probabilistic half states PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤β\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*)>\epsilon(\sigma^*)\}\le\betaPN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤β.

Significance

The result turns the size of a support set, a quantity observed after the program is solved, into a certificate on the violation of the solution, for any optimization or decision problem whose solution is determined by a subset of the data. With the choice (8.16), a user who finds a support set of size σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ can assert V(θ∗)≤ϵ(σ∗)V(\theta^*)\le\epsilon(\sigma^*)V(θ∗)≤ϵ(σ∗) with confidence 1−β1-\beta1−β. The book's Figure 8.12 shows that ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k) for β=10−6\beta=10^{-6}β=10−6 remains well below 111 for kkk up to a sizeable fraction of NNN. Because the algorithm that finds the support set is arbitrary, cheap heuristics that return non-minimal support sets still give valid, if weaker, guarantees. The result does not recover the tight convex bound (3.4); for convex programs the Chapter 3 theory remains sharper.

The statement is proved in [31] and is the probabilistic core of the sample-compression arguments of learning theory (Floyd and Warmuth 1995) in the form used by the scenario approach. To the best of available knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. The platform's UnderstandingML.compression_bound proves a sample-compression bound for a fixed compression size with a different constant; it does not cover a data-dependent size σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ or an arbitrary level function. A formal proof here provides a reusable bound for data-dependent support sets over arbitrary decision sets.

Difficulty

The natural first step is: condition on the support set being a particular index set III with ∣I∣=k|I|=k∣I∣=k, and argue that the solution is then a function of the kkk sampled constraints in III alone, while the other N−kN-kN−k samples are independent of it and must all be satisfied. The difficulty is that the event "the algorithm returns III" depends on all NNN samples, and the solution of the reduced program on III is defined only where that program has a unique solution; the decomposition of the probability therefore has to be carried out on sections of the product space, with a measurability argument for each piece. A second point is that σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ is random and data-dependent: a bound for each fixed kkk does not directly give a bound at the random level ϵ(σ∗)\epsilon(\sigma^*)ϵ(σ∗), and the role of the condition ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1 must be accounted for at k=Nk=Nk=N.

Formalization scope

Lean representation and committed conventions:

  • Θ\ThetaΘ and Δ\DeltaΔ are arbitrary types with measurable structures; P\mathbb PP is a probability measure on Δ\DeltaΔ; a sample is ω : Fin N → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin N => P); indices run over 0,…,N−10,\dots,N-10,…,N−1.
  • A subset of constraints is a Finset (Fin N); the reduced program with index set III has feasible set ⋂i∈IΘδi\bigcap_{i\in I}\Theta_{\delta_i}⋂i∈I​Θδi​​ (all of Θ\ThetaΘ for I=∅I=\emptysetI=∅).
  • The solution map θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is a parameter with the hypothesis that θ∗(ω)\theta^*(\omega)θ∗(ω) is the unique solution of the full program for every sample.
  • "Has the same solution" in Definition 8.8 means: the reduced program has a unique solution and it equals the unique solution of the full program. Existence of solutions is not assumed for reduced programs in general, only for those that are support sets.
  • The algorithm is an arbitrary map alg : (Fin N → Δ) → Finset (Fin N) returning a support set for every sample; σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ is the cardinality of its output. The goal is universal over such maps.
  • ϵ\epsilonϵ is a real function on N\mathbb NN with ϵ(k)∈[0,1]\epsilon(k)\in[0,1]ϵ(k)∈[0,1] for k≤Nk\le Nk≤N and ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1.
  • The violation is real-valued in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; the probability of the event is compared in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with ENNReal.ofReal of the real right-hand side.

Implicit hypotheses of the page, made explicit (the book states on p. 33 that measurability issues are glossed over): the constraint relation {(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ}\{(\theta,\delta):\theta\in\Theta_\delta\}{(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ​} is measurable in Θ×Δ\Theta\times\DeltaΘ×Δ; the solution map is measurable; each event {ω:the algorithm returns J}\{\omega:\text{the algorithm returns }J\}{ω:the algorithm returns J} is measurable; θ∗\theta^*θ∗ exists and is unique for every sample; N≥1N\ge1N≥1 in the arithmetic half of (8.16).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the algorithm is not existentially quantified and is not the minimal support set, the reduced programs are not all assumed solvable (which would be unsatisfiable when fff has no unconstrained minimizer), and the support-set property requires uniqueness of the reduced solution, without which the bound is false.

Needed infrastructure: product measures on Fin N → Δ, splitting of such products along a subset of coordinates, and Fubini/Tonelli for sections. These pieces are reusable for other compression-type bounds. Contributions welcome: proofs of the two milestones and of the goal, and lemmas on splitting Measure.pi over a Finset of coordinates.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM/MOS, 2018, §8.6, pp. 101–105. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, F. A. Ramponi, A general scenario theory for nonconvex optimization and decision making, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2018.2808446
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • S. Floyd, M. Warmuth, Sample compression, learnability, and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis dimension, Machine Learning, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00993593
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Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue: The Competitive Ratio of the Primal-Dual Allocation AlgorithmResearch Paper

Motivation

Search engines sell advertisement slots next to their results through ad-auctions. Advertisers bid on keywords, and each advertiser also sets a daily budget: the most it is willing to pay in a day. Queries arrive one at a time and each must be assigned to an advertiser at once, with no knowledge of the queries still to come. The seller's revenue from an advertiser is capped by its budget, so an allocation rule that ignores budgets can exhaust a high bidder early and forgo revenue that a more even allocation would have collected. The question is how much of the offline optimum an online rule can guarantee against every arrival sequence.

Mehta, Saberi, Vazirani and Vazirani (FOCS 2005 / J. ACM 2007) gave a deterministic algorithm whose competitive ratio tends to 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e when bids are small compared with budgets, and showed that no deterministic algorithm does better. Their algorithm builds on online bipartite matching (Karp, Vazirani and Vazirani, STOC 1990) and online bbb-matching (Kalyanasundaram and Pruhs, 2000). Buchbinder, Jain and Naor (ESA 2007) rederived the 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e bound with an online primal-dual algorithm, which gives the ratio in closed form for every value of the bid-to-budget ratio and extends to multiple slots, stochastic information, bounded degree and budget flexibility. This mission formalizes the basic algorithm of that paper and its Theorem 1.

Setting

There is a finite nonempty set III of buyers. Buyer iii has a known budget B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0. Products j=1,…,mj = 1, \dots, mj=1,…,m arrive one by one; when product jjj arrives, every buyer's bid b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0 on it is revealed. The bid-to-budget ratio is

Rmax⁡=max⁡i∈I, jb(i,j)B(i).R_{\max} = \max_{i \in I,\, j} \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)} .Rmax​=i∈I,jmax​B(i)b(i,j)​.

A fractional allocation y(i,j)≥0y(i,j) \ge 0y(i,j)≥0 assigns fractions of products to buyers; the revenue from buyer iii is the minimum of ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j) and B(i)B(i)B(i).

The offline fractional problem is the packing LP, which the paper calls the dual:

max⁡∑j∑ib(i,j) y(i,j)s.t.∑iy(i,j)≤1  ∀j,∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.\max \sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_i y(i,j) \le 1 \ \ \forall j,\qquad \sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i)\ \ \forall i,\qquad y \ge 0 .maxj∑​i∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)s.t.i∑​y(i,j)≤1  ∀j,j∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.

Its LP dual, the paper's primal, is the covering LP:

min⁡∑iB(i) x(i)+∑jz(j)s.t.b(i,j) x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.\min \sum_i B(i)\,x(i) + \sum_j z(j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad b(i,j)\,x(i) + z(j) \ge b(i,j)\ \ \forall i,j,\qquad x, z \ge 0 .mini∑​B(i)x(i)+j∑​z(j)s.t.b(i,j)x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.

The Allocation Algorithm has a parameter c>1c > 1c>1 and starts from x≡0x \equiv 0x≡0. When product jjj arrives it takes a buyer iii maximizing b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1 - x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)). If x(i)≥1x(i) \ge 1x(i)≥1, the product is not sold. Otherwise it charges iii the minimum of b(i,j)b(i,j)b(i,j) and iii's remaining budget, sets y(i,j)←1y(i,j) \leftarrow 1y(i,j)←1 and z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i))z(j) \leftarrow b(i,j)(1 - x(i))z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i)), and updates

x(i)←x(i)(1+b(i,j)B(i))+b(i,j)(c−1) B(i).x(i) \leftarrow x(i)\Big(1 + \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)}\Big) + \frac{b(i,j)}{(c-1)\,B(i)} .x(i)←x(i)(1+B(i)b(i,j)​)+(c−1)B(i)b(i,j)​.

Its revenue is the total amount charged.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every instance and every bound R>0R > 0R>0 with b(i,j)≤R B(i)b(i,j) \le R\,B(i)b(i,j)≤RB(i) for all i,ji, ji,j, the Allocation Algorithm run with c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R, under any tie-breaking of the maximum, satisfies for every feasible y′y'y′ of the packing LP

Revenue  ≥  (1−1c)(1−R)∑j∑ib(i,j) y′(i,j).\mathrm{Revenue} \;\ge\; \Big(1 - \frac1c\Big)(1 - R)\sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y'(i,j).Revenue≥(1−c1​)(1−R)j∑​i∑​b(i,j)y′(i,j).

With R=Rmax⁡R = R_{\max}R=Rmax​ this is the paper's statement that the algorithm is (1−1/c)(1−Rmax⁡)(1 - 1/c)(1 - R_{\max})(1−1/c)(1−Rmax​)-competitive; the fractional optimum bounds every integral offline allocation.

Milestones

The proof of Theorem 1 rests on three claims and three auxiliary facts, each a milestone:

  1. the inequality ln⁡(1+x)/x≥ln⁡(1+y)/y\ln(1+x)/x \ge \ln(1+y)/yln(1+x)/x≥ln(1+y)/y for 0<x≤y≤10 < x \le y \le 10<x≤y≤1;
  2. Claim (1): the final (x,z)(x, z)(x,z) is feasible for the covering LP;
  3. Claim (2): the covering cost of the run equals (1+1/(c−1))(1 + 1/(c-1))(1+1/(c−1)) times the packing value of the run's own yyy;
  4. Inequality (1): x(i)≥1c−1(c∑jb(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1)x(i) \ge \frac{1}{c-1}\big(c^{\sum_j b(i,j) y(i,j)/B(i)} - 1\big)x(i)≥c−11​(c∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1) at every stage of the run;
  5. Claim (3): ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)+max⁡jb(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i) + \max_j b(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)+maxj​b(i,j), and the amount charged to iii is at least (1−R)∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)(1 - R)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)(1−R)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j);
  6. weak duality for the LP pair above;

and, separately, the second sentence of Theorem 1,

lim⁡R→0+(1−1(1+R)1/R)(1−R)=1−1e.\lim_{R\to 0^+}\Big(1 - \frac{1}{(1+R)^{1/R}}\Big)(1-R) = 1 - \frac1e .R→0+lim​(1−(1+R)1/R1​)(1−R)=1−e1​.

Significance

Theorem 1 gives an explicit ratio for every value of Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​, not only in the limit. It tends to the optimal deterministic ratio 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e as bids become small, and it quantifies how the guarantee degrades as single bids become a larger share of a budget. The primal-dual analysis is the template for the paper's later sections and for a line of work on online packing and covering problems, surveyed in Buchbinder and Naor's monograph The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach (Foundations and Trends in TCS, 2009).

The result is proved in the paper, and the proof is short. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof about an algorithm that is defined, not described: the run is computed by recursion from the instance, and the guarantee is proved for that run and every tie-breaking. A related private mission on the platform, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach VI: Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, states the monograph's Theorem 10.1, which is this theorem, in a form that takes the analysis's intermediate inequalities as hypotheses over arbitrary lists of won bids; the present mission states it for the algorithm itself. No machine-checked proof of Theorem 1 is known to this mission.

Difficulty

Each step of the proof is elementary; the difficulty is the bookkeeping of an online process. Claims (1) and (2) are statements about a single iteration that must be lifted to the whole run: Claim (1) uses that xxx only increases, and Claim (2) that each product is processed once. Inequality (1) is an induction over the iterations that allocate to one buyer, interleaved with iterations that allocate to others and is the only place where the value of ccc matters. Claim (3) needs a further invariant: the amount charged equals the minimum of the allocated bids and the budget.

A tempting shortcut is to take Inequality (1) and the "at most one undercharge" fact as hypotheses about some list of bids. That does not describe the algorithm and is not the theorem; here the only hypotheses are on the instance and on the tie-breaking rule.

Formalization scope

Buyers are a type I with [Fintype I] and [Nonempty I]; products are Fin m, whose order is the arrival order. Bids and budgets are real, with B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0 and b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0. The state of the algorithm records xxx, the amounts charged, yyy and zzz; one iteration is step, the run after kkk products is runPrefix, and revenue sums the charges of the final state. The tie-breaking rule is a function sel of the current xxx and the product, required to return a maximizer of b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1-x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)); the theorem holds for every such rule. The constant c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R is a real power and requires R>0R > 0R>0. The theorem is stated for any bound RRR on the ratios, of which the exact maximum is one instance. Claims (1) and (2) are stated for every c>1c > 1c>1, which covers the paper's choice. The paper's inequality for ln⁡(1+x)/x\ln(1+x)/xln(1+x)/x allows x=0x = 0x=0, read as a limit; the Lean statement requires x>0x > 0x>0.

A statement over an unconstrained allocation, or one conditioned on the proof's own intermediate inequalities, would be trivially true or false; the targets here concern only the run the definitions compute.

The development needs finite sums, real powers and logarithms from Mathlib and an induction principle for the run. The LP pair and weak duality are reusable for the paper's extensions, and the run invariants for any primal-dual online algorithm with multiplicative updates. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are sharper variants, such as the exact-Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​ form or the bound against integral allocations.

Selected references

  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, J. Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, Algorithms – ESA 2007, LNCS 4698, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75520-3_24
  • A. Mehta, A. Saberi, U. Vazirani, V. Vazirani, AdWords and Generalized Online Matching, Journal of the ACM 54(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1145/1284320.1284321
  • R. M. Karp, U. V. Vazirani, V. V. Vazirani, An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching, STOC 1990. https://doi.org/10.1145/100216.100262
  • B. Kalyanasundaram, K. R. Pruhs, An Optimal Deterministic Algorithm for Online b-Matching, Theoretical Computer Science 233(1–2), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3975(99)00140-1
  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach, Foundations and Trends in Theoretical Computer Science 3(2–3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1561/0400000024
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Value of Information in Bayesian Routing Games I: Sign and Monotonicity of the Relative Value of Information Across Size RegimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Traffic information systems (TIS) such as navigation apps send drivers noisy signals about the state of a road network: incidents, weather, closures. When several such systems coexist, each with its own subscriber base and its own information, a natural question for operators and regulators is whether subscribing to one system rather than another actually lowers a driver's expected travel cost in equilibrium, and how this advantage depends on how many drivers use each system. More information for one population also changes the congestion everybody else faces, so the answer is not simply "more information is better".

Wu, Amin and Ozdaglar (Operations Research 69(1), 2021) answer this question for nonatomic routing games with heterogeneous, possibly correlated information. Their model builds on the weighted potential game framework of Sandholm (2001) and on sensitivity analysis of convex programs. This mission formalizes their Section 5 result: for any two populations the sign of the relative value of information is determined by which of three explicitly computable size regimes the population sizes lie in, and the relative value decreases as one population grows at the expense of the other.

Setting

A Bayesian routing game has a finite set of populations I\mathcal II, one per TIS, a finite set of network states S\mathcal SS, and for each population iii a finite nonempty type space Ti\mathcal T^iTi of signals. A common prior π\piπ is a probability distribution on S×T\mathcal S\times\mathcal TS×T, T=∏iTi\mathcal T=\prod_i\mathcal T^iT=∏i​Ti. A network with a single origin–destination pair has edges E\mathcal EE and a finite nonempty set of routes R\mathcal RR; each edge has a state-dependent cost cesc^s_eces​ that is positive, strictly increasing and differentiable. The total demand is D>0D>0D>0, and population iii carries the fraction λi\lambda^iλi of it, with λi≥0\lambda^i\ge0λi≥0 and ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda^i=1∑i​λi=1.

A strategy profile qqq assigns to each population iii and type tit^iti a split qri(ti)≥0q^i_r(t^i)\ge0qri​(ti)≥0 of its demand λiD\lambda^iDλiD over routes. It induces the route flow fr(t)=∑iqri(ti)f_r(t)=\sum_iq^i_r(t^i)fr​(t)=∑i​qri​(ti) and the edge load we(t)=∑r∋efr(t)w_e(t)=\sum_{r\ni e}f_r(t)we​(t)=∑r∋e​fr​(t). With the belief βi(s,t−i∣ti)=π(s,ti,t−i)/Pr⁡(ti)\beta^i(s,t^{-i}\mid t^i)=\pi(s,t^i,t^{-i})/\Pr(t^i)βi(s,t−i∣ti)=π(s,ti,t−i)/Pr(ti), type tit^iti evaluates route rrr by its expected cost E[cr(q)∣ti]\mathbb E[c_r(q)\mid t^i]E[cr​(q)∣ti]. A Bayesian Wardrop equilibrium (BWE) is a feasible qqq in which every type uses only routes of minimal expected cost. The equilibrium population cost is Ci∗(λ)=∑tiPr⁡(ti)min⁡rE[cr(q)∣ti]C^{i*}(\lambda)=\sum_{t^i}\Pr(t^i)\min_r\mathbb E[c_r(q)\mid t^i]Ci∗(λ)=∑ti​Pr(ti)minr​E[cr​(q)∣ti] at a BWE qqq.

The game has a weighted potential Φ(q)=∑s,e,tπ(s,t)∫0we(t)ces(z) dz\Phi(q)=\sum_{s,e,t}\pi(s,t)\int_0^{w_e(t)}c^s_e(z)\,dzΦ(q)=∑s,e,t​π(s,t)∫0we​(t)​ces​(z)dz; its minimum over feasible profiles is the equilibrium potential value Ψ(λ)\Psi(\lambda)Ψ(λ). For two populations i≠ji\ne ji=j, the direction zijz^{ij}zij moves demand share from jjj to iii, and ∣λ−ij∣|\lambda^{-ij}|∣λ−ij∣ is the total share of the other populations. The impact of information J^i(f)\widehat J^i(f)Ji(f) measures how much of population iii's demand is moved by its signal. Two thresholds λ‾i≤λ‾i\underline\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^iλ​i≤λi are computed from the optimal set Fij,†\mathcal F^{ij,\dagger}Fij,† of an auxiliary convex program over route flows in which the separate information constraints of iii and jjj are merged. They define three regimes: Λ1ij\Lambda^{ij}_1Λ1ij​ (λi<λ‾i\lambda^i<\underline\lambda^iλi<λ​i), Λ2ij\Lambda^{ij}_2Λ2ij​ (λ‾i≤λi≤λ‾i\underline\lambda^i\le\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^iλ​i≤λi≤λi) and Λ3ij\Lambda^{ij}_3Λ3ij​ (λi>λ‾i\lambda^i>\overline\lambda^iλi>λi). The relative value of information is Vij∗(λ)=Cj∗(λ)−Ci∗(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda)=C^{j*}(\lambda)-C^{i*}(\lambda)Vij∗(λ)=Cj∗(λ)−Ci∗(λ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For i≠ji\ne ji=j and admissible λ\lambdaλ (in the simplex with λi,λj>0\lambda^i,\lambda^j>0λi,λj>0), and every BWE of Γ(λ)\Gamma(\lambda)Γ(λ),

Vij∗(λ)>0 on Λ1ij,Vij∗(λ)=0 on Λ2ij,Vij∗(λ)<0 on Λ3ij,V^{ij*}(\lambda)>0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_1,\qquad V^{ij*}(\lambda)=0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_2,\qquad V^{ij*}(\lambda)<0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_3,Vij∗(λ)>0 on Λ1ij​,Vij∗(λ)=0 on Λ2ij​,Vij∗(λ)<0 on Λ3ij​,

and Vij∗V^{ij*}Vij∗ is nonincreasing along zijz^{ij}zij: Vij∗(λ+εzij)≤Vij∗(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda+\varepsilon z^{ij})\le V^{ij*}(\lambda)Vij∗(λ+εzij)≤Vij∗(λ) for ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with both endpoints admissible.

Milestones

The route to the goal follows the paper: Lemma 1 (weighted potential), Lemma 2 (strict convexity of the edge-load potential), Theorem 1 (equilibria are the minimizers of Φ\PhiΦ; unique edge load), Lemma 3 (unique Lagrange multipliers), Proposition 1 (the feasible route flows form a polytope F(λ)\mathcal F(\lambda)F(λ)), Proposition 2 (equilibrium route flows minimize Φ^\widehat\PhiΦ over F(λ)\mathcal F(\lambda)F(λ)), Lemma 4 (0≤λ‾i≤λ‾i≤1−∣λ−ij∣0\le\underline\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^i\le1-|\lambda^{-ij}|0≤λ​i≤λi≤1−∣λ−ij∣), Theorem 2 (equilibrium flows in each regime), Proposition 3 (Ψ\PsiΨ decreases, stays constant, increases along zijz^{ij}zij in the three regimes) and Lemma 5 (Ψ\PsiΨ is convex and directionally differentiable, and Vij∗(λ)=−1D∇zijΨ(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda)=-\frac1D\nabla_{z^{ij}}\Psi(\lambda)Vij∗(λ)=−D1​∇zij​Ψ(λ)).

Significance

Theorem 3 says that a population has an advantage over another exactly when it is the minor population of the pair, relative to thresholds that depend only on the other populations' sizes. Both populations face the same equilibrium cost in the middle regime. It gives a procedure for comparing two information systems without computing equilibria for each size vector: solve one convex program, read off two thresholds, and locate λi\lambda^iλi. The paper's Section 6 uses the same machinery, through Lemma 5, to characterize the equilibrium adoption rates of information systems.

The paper proves these results with the main proofs in the article and the sensitivity-analysis lemmas (Lemmas EC.1–EC.4) in its e-companion. None of them has a machine-checked proof. The formalization requires a Lean account of Bayesian Wardrop equilibria, of the equivalence between equilibria and a convex program, and of directional derivatives of the optimal value of a parametric convex program. Parts of this are reusable for any nonatomic routing or congestion game.

Difficulty

The equilibrium strategy profile is not unique and changes discontinuously with λ\lambdaλ. Differentiating equilibrium costs in λ\lambdaλ directly therefore fails. The paper instead works with the optimal value Ψ(λ)\Psi(\lambda)Ψ(λ), whose one-sided directional derivative is expressed through Lagrange multipliers. That requires a sensitivity theorem for convex programs whose constraints depend affinely on the parameter, together with uniqueness of multipliers, which fails for populations of size zero. The regime analysis also needs a characterization of the route flows that are induced by feasible strategy profiles. That set is described by the nonlinear-looking constraint J^i(f)≤λiD\widehat J^i(f)\le\lambda^iDJi(f)≤λiD, a minimum over types inside a sum over routes. Strict monotonicity of Ψ\PsiΨ in the side regimes needs the tightness of an information constraint at every equilibrium, not only at one.

Formalization scope

The model is a Lean structure BayesRouting.VOI.Game over finite types of populations, type spaces, states, edges and routes. Routes are given by their edge sets, and the directed-graph structure is not used. Type spaces and the route set are nonempty. The prior is a probability distribution, D>0D>0D>0, and costs are positive on nonnegative loads, strictly increasing and differentiable on R\mathbb RR. One assumption is added: every type profile has positive probability. It makes beliefs well defined and the equilibrium edge load unique, and it excludes perfectly correlated signals.

Conventions: Ci∗C^{i*}Ci∗ is the last form of eq. (7), which does not divide by λiD\lambda^iDλiD. J^i\widehat J^iJi is the maximum of eq. (16) over the reference profile, so that J^i(f)≤λiD\widehat J^i(f)\le\lambda^iDJi(f)≤λiD is exactly (14d). Ψ\PsiΨ and the thresholds are sInf/sSup over sets that are nonempty and compact for size vectors in the simplex, and every statement keeps size vectors there. Statements about "the" equilibrium are stated for every BWE, and existence of a BWE is a separate item, so they are not vacuous. The thresholds are defined from the optimal set of the auxiliary program, not assumed as parameters. Taking them as parameters constrained only by Lemma 4 would give a different theorem.

Disclosed deviations: Lemma 2's C2C^2C2 clause assumes C1C^1C1 costs; Lemma 3 is stated for populations of positive size; Lemma 5 assumes λj>0\lambda^j>0λj>0; Proposition 3 is stated with strict monotonicity in the side regimes, as used in the proof of Theorem 3. Contributions of reusable infrastructure are welcome: interval-integral potentials of monotone costs, KKT theory for polyhedral constraints, and directional derivatives of parametric optimal values.

Selected references

  • M. Wu, S. Amin, A. Ozdaglar, Value of Information in Bayesian Routing Games, Operations Research 69(1):148–163, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.1999
  • W. H. Sandholm, Potential Games with Continuous Player Sets, Journal of Economic Theory 97(1):81–108, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.2000.2696
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Directional Differentiability of the Optimal Value Function in a Nonlinear Programming Problem, in Sensitivity, Stability and Parametric Analysis (Mathematical Programming Studies 21), Springer, 1984, pp. 213–226.
  • A. V. Fiacco, J. Kyparisis, Convexity and Concavity Properties of the Optimal Value Function in Parametric Nonlinear Programming, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 48(1):95–126, 1986.
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On a Conjecture of Spectral Extremal Problems: If the Extremal Graphs for F Are Turán Graphs Plus a Fixed Number of Edges, Every F-Free Graph of Maximum Spectral Radius Is ExtremalResearch Paper

Motivation

Extremal graph theory asks how many edges a graph on nnn vertices can have without containing a fixed graph FFF. The answer, the Turán number ex(n,F)\mathrm{ex}(n,F)ex(n,F), and the graphs attaining it, the set Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) of extremal graphs, are known precisely only for special FFF; the Erdős–Stone–Simonovits theorem gives ex(n,F)=(1−1χ(F)−1+o(1))n22\mathrm{ex}(n,F) = (1 - \frac{1}{\chi(F)-1} + o(1))\frac{n^2}{2}ex(n,F)=(1−χ(F)−11​+o(1))2n2​, where χ(F)\chi(F)χ(F) is the chromatic number.

Spectral extremal graph theory asks the same question with the number of edges replaced by the spectral radius λ(G)\lambda(G)λ(G), the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. Since λ(G)≥2e(G)/n\lambda(G) \ge 2e(G)/nλ(G)≥2e(G)/n, a spectral bound implies an edge bound, and spectral extremal results are usually stronger than their edge versions. Nikiforov (Linear Algebra Appl. 427, 2007) showed that the Turán graph Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ maximises λ\lambdaλ among Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​-free graphs, so for F=Kr+1F = K_{r+1}F=Kr+1​ the spectral and the edge extremal graphs coincide. Whether this happens for other FFF is the subject of the paper.

Timeline:

  • 1941 Turán: Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ is the unique extremal graph for Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​.
  • 2003 Chen, Gould, Pfender, Wei (J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 89): ex(n,Fk,r+1)=e(Tn,r)+O(1)\mathrm{ex}(n, F_{k,r+1}) = e(T_{n,r}) + O(1)ex(n,Fk,r+1​)=e(Tn,r​)+O(1) for kkk copies of Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​ sharing one vertex.
  • 2007 Nikiforov (Linear Algebra Appl. 427): spectral Turán theorem for Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​. 2009 Nikiforov (J. Graph Theory 62): spectral stability for large forbidden subgraphs, the source of Lemma 2.5.
  • 2020 Cioabă, Feng, Tait, Zhang (Electron. J. Combin. 27): the spectral extremal graph for the friendship graph FkF_kFk​ lies in Ex(n,Fk)\mathrm{Ex}(n, F_k)Ex(n,Fk​).
  • 2022 Cioabă, Desai, Tait (European J. Combin. 99) conjecture: if the graphs in Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) are Turán graphs plus O(1)O(1)O(1) edges, then the spectral extremal graphs lie in Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) for large nnn. Before the general proof it was known for Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​, the friendship graphs FkF_kFk​, the graphs Hs,kH_{s,k}Hs,k​ (Li, Peng) and the intersecting cliques Fk,rF_{k,r}Fk,r​ (Desai, Kang, Li, Ni, Tait, Wang, arXiv:2108.03587).
  • 2022/2023 Wang, Kang, Xue (arXiv:2203.10831; J. Combin. Theory Ser. B, 2023): the conjecture holds in general. This mission formalizes their Theorem 1.2.

Setting

All graphs are finite and simple. For a graph GGG on nnn vertices, A(G)A(G)A(G) is its 0/10/10/1 adjacency matrix and λ(G)\lambda(G)λ(G) is the largest eigenvalue of A(G)A(G)A(G). A graph GGG is FFF-free if no subgraph of GGG is isomorphic to FFF. The Turán number ex(n,F)\mathrm{ex}(n,F)ex(n,F) is the maximum number of edges e(G)e(G)e(G) over FFF-free graphs GGG on nnn vertices, and Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) is the set of FFF-free nnn-vertex graphs with ex(n,F)\mathrm{ex}(n,F)ex(n,F) edges. The Turán graph Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ is the complete rrr-partite graph on nnn vertices with parts of sizes ⌊n/r⌋\lfloor n/r\rfloor⌊n/r⌋ or ⌈n/r⌉\lceil n/r\rceil⌈n/r⌉.

The hypothesis on FFF is: for fixed integers r≥2r \ge 2r≥2 and a≥0a \ge 0a≥0 and all large nnn, ex(n,F)=e(Tn,r)+a\mathrm{ex}(n,F) = e(T_{n,r}) + aex(n,F)=e(Tn,r​)+a and every graph in Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) contains a spanning copy of Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​, i.e. is Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ plus aaa edges. The paper states "adding O(1)O(1)O(1) edges" and fixes the constant at the start of Section 3 (p. 4): "We may assume that the graphs in Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) are obtained from Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ by adding aaa edges." The mission follows that reading. Examples: Kr+1K_{r+1}Kr+1​ with a=0a = 0a=0, the friendship graphs, and the intersecting cliques Fk,r+1F_{k,r+1}Fk,r+1​.

A graph GGG is spectral extremal for FFF if it is FFF-free and λ(G)≥λ(G′)\lambda(G) \ge \lambda(G')λ(G)≥λ(G′) for every FFF-free G′G'G′ on the same nnn vertices.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2

For r≥2r \ge 2r≥2, a≥0a \ge 0a≥0 and FFF satisfying the hypothesis, there is NNN such that for all n≥Nn \ge Nn≥N every spectral extremal graph GGG for FFF on nnn vertices satisfies

e(G)=ex(n,F),i.e.G∈Ex(n,F).e(G) = \mathrm{ex}(n,F), \qquad\text{i.e.}\qquad G \in \mathrm{Ex}(n,F).e(G)=ex(n,F),i.e.G∈Ex(n,F).

The statement contains no numerical constant, and NNN depends only on FFF, rrr, aaa.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof, in order: strict monotonicity of λ\lambdaλ under proper subgraphs of a connected graph (Lemma 2.3); connectivity of GGG (Lemma 3.1); the bound λ(G)≥(1−1r)n−r4n+2an\lambda(G) \ge (1-\frac1r)n - \frac{r}{4n} + \frac{2a}{n}λ(G)≥(1−r1​)n−4nr​+n2a​ (Lemma 3.2); spectral stability for χ(F)=r+1\chi(F) = r+1χ(F)=r+1 (Corollary 2.6); for every maximum rrr-cut V1∪⋯∪VrV_1 \cup \dots \cup V_rV1​∪⋯∪Vr​, ∑ie(Vi)≤εn2\sum_i e(V_i) \le \varepsilon n^2∑i​e(Vi​)≤εn2 and ∣Vi∣=(1r±3ε)n|V_i| = (\frac1r \pm 3\sqrt\varepsilon)n∣Vi​∣=(r1​±3ε​)n (Lemma 3.3); a counting inequality for intersections (Lemma 2.8); e(G[Vi])≤ae(G[V_i]) \le ae(G[Vi​])≤a and minimum degree above (1−1r−3rε1/3)n(1 - \frac1r - 3r\varepsilon^{1/3})n(1−r1​−3rε1/3)n (Lemma 3.6); at most 2a2a2a vertices of each part have a neighbour in that part, and all others see every other part completely (Lemma 3.7); Perron entries xu≥1−20a2r2/nx_u \ge 1 - 20a^2r^2/nxu​≥1−20a2r2/n for a≥1a \ge 1a≥1 (Lemma 3.8); e(Gin)−e(Gout)≤ae(G_{in}) - e(G_{out}) \le ae(Gin​)−e(Gout​)≤a (Lemma 3.9); balancing two parts of a complete multipartite graph increases λ\lambdaλ (Lemma 2.7); and the maximum partition is balanced, ∣ni−nj∣≤1|n_i - n_j| \le 1∣ni​−nj​∣≤1 (Lemma 3.10).

Significance

The theorem settles the Cioabă–Desai–Tait conjecture: for every FFF whose extremal graphs are Turán graphs plus a bounded number of edges, the spectral extremal problem reduces to the edge extremal problem for large nnn. This recovers the earlier cases (friendship graphs, the graphs Hs,kH_{s,k}Hs,k​, intersecting cliques) at once, and it turns any future determination of Ex(n,F)\mathrm{Ex}(n,F)Ex(n,F) of this type into a spectral result with no further work.

The result is proved on paper; it has no machine-checked proof. Mathlib has Turán's theorem (extremalNumber_top, uniqueness of turanGraph) and the definition of extremalNumber, but no spectral extremal graph theory: no Perron–Frobenius theorem for graphs, no spectral Turán theorem, no stability theorem. The formalization would supply these, and the milestone statements are independently reusable: strict monotonicity of λ\lambdaλ (Lemma 2.3), the spectral comparison of complete multipartite graphs (Lemma 2.7) and spectral stability (Corollary 2.6) are standard tools of the area.

Difficulty

The natural first idea, comparing GGG with an extremal graph HHH by Rayleigh quotients, fails at the start: λ(G)≥λ(H)\lambda(G) \ge \lambda(H)λ(G)≥λ(H) gives only e(G)≥e(Tn,r)−o(n2)e(G) \ge e(T_{n,r}) - o(n^2)e(G)≥e(Tn,r​)−o(n2), far from ex(n,F)\mathrm{ex}(n,F)ex(n,F). Closing an additive gap of O(1)O(1)O(1) edges requires control of the Perron vector to within O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n) at every vertex and exact control of the part sizes. The second is the delicate step: an imbalance of one vertex between two parts costs Θ(1/n)\Theta(1/n)Θ(1/n) in λ\lambdaλ, while the aaa extra edges contribute only O(1/n2)O(1/n^2)O(1/n2) beyond the Turán graph, so the two effects must be compared at different scales. Further, the proof needs the deep spectral stability theorem of Nikiforov (Lemma 2.5), whose own proof is long.

Formalization scope

Graphs on nnn vertices are SimpleGraph (Fin n), matching Mathlib's extremalNumber n F; FFF is a graph on any finite type. λ(G)\lambda(G)λ(G) is the largest eigenvalue of G.adjMatrix ℝ (index 000 of Mathlib's decreasingly sorted eigenvalues₀), not an absolute value and not a norm. "FFF-free" is F.Free G (no copy of FFF, not necessarily induced). "Sufficiently large nnn" is ∃ N, ∀ n ≥ N with NNN chosen after F,r,aF, r, aF,r,a and before GGG; "sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε" is ∃ ε₀ > 0, ∀ ε ∈ (0, ε₀). Partitions V1∪⋯∪VrV_1 \cup \dots \cup V_rV1​∪⋯∪Vr​ are labellings Fin n → Fin r whose parts may be empty; the Section 3 lemmas hold for every partition maximising the number of crossing edges. Lemma 3.8 carries the extra hypothesis a≥1a \ge 1a≥1, because as printed it is false for a=0a = 0a=0 (for F=Kr+1F = K_{r+1}F=Kr+1​ and r∤nr \nmid nr∤n the Perron vector of Tn,rT_{n,r}Tn,r​ has entries below 111); the goal does not assume it.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: λ\lambdaλ is not defined from the edge count (which would make spectral and edge extremality the same), the hypothesis on FFF does not contain the conclusion and is satisfiable (a sorry-free check for F=Kr+1F = K_{r+1}F=Kr+1​, a=0a = 0a=0 was compiled), the conclusion is e(G)=ex(n,F)e(G) = \mathrm{ex}(n,F)e(G)=ex(n,F) and not a weaker bound, and the threshold is not chosen after GGG.

A complete development needs the Perron–Frobenius theorem for irreducible nonnegative symmetric matrices, the Rayleigh quotient characterisation of λ\lambdaλ, the spectrum of complete multipartite graphs, Nikiforov's spectral stability lemma, and max-cut partition arguments. All of these are reusable beyond this mission, and proofs of any milestone, of the cited Lemmas 2.1, 2.2 and 2.5, or of Nikiforov's spectral Turán theorem are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Wang, L. Kang, Y. Xue, On a conjecture of spectral extremal problems, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B, 2023; arXiv:2203.10831v1 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.10831
  • S. Cioabă, D. N. Desai, M. Tait, The spectral radius of graphs with no odd wheels, European J. Combin. 99 (2022) 103420.
  • S. Cioabă, L. H. Feng, M. Tait, X. D. Zhang, The maximum spectral radius of graphs without friendship subgraphs, Electron. J. Combin. 27(4) (2020) P4.22.
  • G. Chen, R. J. Gould, F. Pfender, B. Wei, Extremal graphs for intersecting cliques, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 89 (2003) 159–171.
  • V. Nikiforov, Bounds on graph eigenvalues II, Linear Algebra Appl. 427 (2007) 183–189.
  • V. Nikiforov, Stability for large forbidden subgraphs, J. Graph Theory 62(4) (2009) 362–368.
  • D. N. Desai, L. Kang, Y. Li, Z. Ni, M. Tait, J. Wang, Spectral extremal graphs for intersecting cliques, arXiv:2108.03587v2 (2021). https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.03587
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Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies III: Selecting an (s, S) Policy That Is Optimal for Every Starting StockResearch Paper

Motivation

The periodic-review inventory model with a fixed ordering cost is one of the basic models of operations research. When every order incurs a set-up cost KKK in addition to holding and shortage costs, the optimal replenishment rule over an infinite horizon is, under standard convexity assumptions, a stationary (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy: whenever the stock falls below the reorder point sss, order up to the level SSS. Existence of such an optimal policy goes back to Scarf (1960) and Iglehart (1963). Knowing that an optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy exists does not say how to find one, and the average cost of an (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy is neither convex nor unimodal in (s,S)(s, S)(s,S).

Veinott and Wagner (Management Science 11 (1965) 525–552) gave an exact algorithm. It proceeds in three steps: (i) compute integers s‾≤sˉ≤S‾≤Sˉ\underline{s} \le \bar{s} \le \underline{S} \le \bar{S}s​≤sˉ≤S​≤Sˉ bounding an optimal policy; (ii) find the set S\mathcal SS of all policies within those bounds that minimize the cost for starting stocks below s‾\underline{s}s​; (iii) choose from S\mathcal SS a policy that is optimal for every starting stock. This mission formalizes the theory behind Step iii. It is the third mission of a series on the paper: mission I treats the renewal closed form of the discounted cost, mission II the bounds of Step i.

Setting

Demands ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1, \xi_2, \dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… are independent non-negative integer random variables with common distribution φ\varphiφ and finite mean. Following the paper's Eq. (2), the unit purchase cost and the holding and penalty costs are combined into a single function Gα:Z→RG_\alpha : \mathbb Z \to \mathbb RGα​:Z→R, assumed convex with Gα(y)→∞G_\alpha(y) \to \inftyGα​(y)→∞ as ∣y∣→∞|y| \to \infty∣y∣→∞; the set-up cost is K≥0K \ge 0K≥0 and α\alphaα is the discount factor.

A stationary (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy, with integers s≤Ss \le Ss≤S, sets the stock after ordering to

Yt=S if Xt<s,Yt=Xt if Xt≥s,Y_t = S \text{ if } X_t < s, \qquad Y_t = X_t \text{ if } X_t \ge s,Yt​=S if Xt​<s,Yt​=Xt​ if Xt​≥s,

and the stock evolves as Xt+1=Yt−ξtX_{t+1} = Y_t - \xi_tXt+1​=Yt​−ξt​ from X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x. Its discounted cost is

f(x∣s,S)=∑t≥1αt−1E[Kδ(Yt−Xt)+Gα(Yt)],f(x \mid s, S) = \sum_{t \ge 1} \alpha^{t-1} E\bigl[K\delta(Y_t - X_t) + G_\alpha(Y_t)\bigr],f(x∣s,S)=t≥1∑​αt−1E[Kδ(Yt​−Xt​)+Gα​(Yt​)],

where δ(z)=1\delta(z) = 1δ(z)=1 for z>0z > 0z>0 and δ(0)=0\delta(0) = 0δ(0)=0, and its equivalent average cost is aα(x∣s,S)=(1−α)f(x∣s,S)a_\alpha(x \mid s, S) = (1-\alpha) f(x \mid s, S)aα​(x∣s,S)=(1−α)f(x∣s,S).

A policy (s′,S′)(s', S')(s′,S′) is optimal for a set X\mathfrak XX of integers if, for each x∈Xx \in \mathfrak Xx∈X, it minimizes aα(x∣s,S)a_\alpha(x \mid s, S)aα​(x∣s,S) over all (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies; it is optimal if it is optimal for every integer xxx. Under a fixed policy, x′x'x′ is accessible from X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x if Pr⁡(Xt=x′∣X1=x)>0\Pr(X_t = x' \mid X_1 = x) > 0Pr(Xt​=x′∣X1​=x)>0 for some t>1t > 1t>1.

Below the reorder point the cost does not depend on the starting stock; its value is written Lα(S,D)\mathcal L_\alpha(S, D)Lα​(S,D) with D=S−sD = S - sD=S−s. The bounds are: S‾\underline{S}S​ the smallest minimizer of GαG_\alphaGα​; Sˉ\bar{S}Sˉ the smallest integer ≥S‾\ge \underline{S}≥S​ with Gα(Sˉ+1)≥Gα(S‾)+αKG_\alpha(\bar{S}+1) \ge G_\alpha(\underline{S}) + \alpha KGα​(Sˉ+1)≥Gα​(S​)+αK (21); s‾\underline{s}s​ the smallest integer with Gα(s‾)≤Gα(S‾)+KG_\alpha(\underline{s}) \le G_\alpha(\underline{S}) + KGα​(s​)≤Gα​(S​)+K (22); sˉ\bar{s}sˉ the smallest integer with Gα(sˉ)≤Gα(S‾)+(1−α)KG_\alpha(\bar{s}) \le G_\alpha(\underline{S}) + (1-\alpha)KGα​(sˉ)≤Gα​(S​)+(1−α)K (23). The candidate set S\mathcal SS consists of the policies with s‾≤s≤sˉ\underline{s} \le s \le \bar{s}s​≤s≤sˉ, S‾≤S≤Sˉ\underline{S} \le S \le \bar{S}S​≤S≤Sˉ that minimize Lα(S,S−s)\mathcal L_\alpha(S, S-s)Lα​(S,S−s) among such policies.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 543)

For 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1 and (si,Si),(sj,Sj)∈S(s^i, S^i), (s^j, S^j) \in \mathcal S(si,Si),(sj,Sj)∈S: if (si,Si)(s^i, S^i)(si,Si) is optimal and every x′x'x′ with

min⁡(si,sj)≤x′<max⁡(si,sj)\min(s^i, s^j) \le x' < \max(s^i, s^j)min(si,sj)≤x′<max(si,sj)

is accessible from SjS^jSj under (sj,Sj)(s^j, S^j)(sj,Sj), then (sj,Sj)(s^j, S^j)(sj,Sj) is optimal.

Milestones

  1. §3, p. 533. For x<sx < sx<s, f(x∣s,S)=K+f(S∣s,S)f(x \mid s, S) = K + f(S \mid s, S)f(x∣s,S)=K+f(S∣s,S).
  2. Theorem 1, p. 542. For 0≤α<10 \le \alpha < 10≤α<1 and s≤s′s \le s's≤s′: if aα(x∣s,S)=aα(x∣s′,S′)a_\alpha(x \mid s, S) = a_\alpha(x \mid s', S')aα​(x∣s,S)=aα​(x∣s′,S′) for all x<s′x < s'x<s′, then equality holds for all xxx.
  3. Lemma 1, p. 543. For 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1: if (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) is optimal for X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x, it is optimal for every x′x'x′ accessible from xxx.

Significance

Theorem 2 turns the final selection step of the algorithm into a reachability check on the demand distribution: a policy of S\mathcal SS is certified optimal without comparing average costs at every starting stock. Its corollaries give checkable sufficient conditions; for example (Corollary 2.2) if φ(k)>0\varphi(k) > 0φ(k)>0 for k=1,…,sn−s1k = 1, \dots, s^n - s^1k=1,…,sn−s1, the policy of S\mathcal SS with the largest reorder point is optimal, which covers Poisson and negative binomial demand. Theorem 1 separately reduces the comparison of two policies to finitely many starting stocks.

The results are proved in the paper (Section 4 and Appendix §3). No machine-checked version is known: the platform has no discrete (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) inventory chain, no discounted cost of a stationary policy on Z\mathbb ZZ, and no accessibility notion for such a chain. The mission produces these objects together with the paper's selection theory on top of them.

Difficulty

Theorem 1 needs a renewal decomposition at the first passage of the stock below s′s's′, carried out for expectations over an unbounded integer state space with a discounted infinite sum. Lemma 1 is the delicate step. The paper's argument compares the (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy with a hybrid policy that follows (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) until the stock first reaches x′x'x′ and then switches to an optimal policy; the inequality "the hybrid cannot be better than the optimal policy" requires that some stationary (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy is optimal among all ordering policies, including non-stationary ones. That existence result is cited by the paper (Section 2), not proved there. A proof of Lemma 1 within the class of (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies alone does not go through, because the hybrid policy is not an (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace VeinottWagnerSS.Selection. The model is the structure Model: the demand distribution φ : PMF ℕ with finite mean, K ≥ 0, and G : ℤ → ℝ convex (non-decreasing forward differences) and tending to +∞+\infty+∞ at both ends. The unit cost ccc, the function LLL and the lead time λ\lambdaλ do not appear (the paper's own reduction, Eq. (2), p. 529). Stock levels are integers. stateLaw is the law of Xt+1X_{t+1}Xt+1​, obtained by iterated PMF.bind; fCost is the expected discounted cost of that chain as a real series, which converges absolutely for 0≤α<10 \le \alpha < 10≤α<1 because every YtY_tYt​ lies in [s,max⁡(x,S)][s, \max(x, S)][s,max(x,S)]. aCost is (1−α)(1-\alpha)(1−α) times fCost. Accessible uses the law of XtX_tXt​ with t>1t > 1t>1 strictly. Optimality is among (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies (p. 536); the class of general ordering policies is not formalized.

The bounds s‾,sˉ,S‾,Sˉ\underline{s}, \bar{s}, \underline{S}, \bar{S}s​,sˉ,S​,Sˉ are infima of sets of integers; under the standing assumptions and α<1\alpha < 1α<1 these sets are nonempty and bounded below, so each bound is the least integer the paper describes. Lα(S,D)\mathcal L_\alpha(S, D)Lα​(S,D) is defined as aα(S−D−1∣S−D,S)a_\alpha(S - D - 1 \mid S - D, S)aα​(S−D−1∣S−D,S), the cost at the starting stock just below sss; that this is the common value for every x<sx < sx<s is milestone 1.

The standing assumptions are kept in every statement, including Theorem 1 and milestone 1, which do not need them; Lemma 1 and Theorem 2 are true only because of them. No printed slip was found in the three results.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded: fff is the expected cost of the stock process, not a closed formula or a fixed point of a recursion, so milestone 1 is not definitional; the bounds are the least integers of (21)–(23), not arbitrary integers, so S\mathcal SS is determined by the data; the goal does not assume that (sj,Sj)(s^j, S^j)(sj,Sj) is optimal below max⁡(si,sj)\max(s^i, s^j)max(si,sj), and Lemma 1 assumes optimality only at the single starting stock xxx.

Useful contributions beyond the milestones: summability lemmas for fCost, the Markov (one-step) equation for fCost, the first-passage decomposition, and, for Lemma 1, a formalization of general ordering policies with the existence of an optimal stationary (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy. The chain and cost definitions are reusable for other (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) results of the paper (Theorem 3, Corollaries 2.1 and 2.2).

Selected references

  • A. F. Veinott, Jr. and H. M. Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(5), 525–552, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.5.525
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2), 259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
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Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies II: Bounds on the Optimal s and S of the n-Period Model from the One-Period CostResearch Paper

Motivation

The (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy is the standard ordering rule for a single stocked item with a fixed charge per order: when the stock position falls below a reorder point sss, order up to a level SSS; otherwise order nothing. Scarf (1960) proved that when the expected one-period cost is convex, some (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy is optimal in every period of a finite-horizon model with set-up cost. Iglehart (1963) extended this to the infinite horizon. These results establish existence only. They give no procedure for finding the optimal pair.

Veinott and Wagner (1965) gave such a procedure. Its first step is to bound the optimal sss and SSS by four integers s‾≤sˉ≤S‾≤Sˉ\underline{s} \le \bar{s} \le \underline{S} \le \bar{S}s​≤sˉ≤S​≤Sˉ computed from the one-period cost alone. This reduces the search for an optimal policy to a finite box. Their Theorem 4(a) proves that the bounds hold for the first-period parameters of an optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy in every nnn-period model. This mission formalizes that theorem and the four comparison lemmas (Lemmas 2–5 of the paper's Appendix §2) from which the paper derives it.

Setting

Demands ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1, \xi_2, \dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… in periods 1,2,…1, 2, \dots1,2,… are independent, non-negative integer random variables with common distribution φ(k)=Pr⁡(ξt=k)\varphi(k) = \Pr(\xi_t = k)φ(k)=Pr(ξt​=k) and finite mean. Unfilled demand is backlogged, so stock levels are arbitrary integers. In period ttt, XtX_tXt​ is the stock on hand plus on order before ordering and Yt≥XtY_t \ge X_tYt​≥Xt​ the level after ordering. Then X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x and Xt+1=Yt−ξtX_{t+1} = Y_t - \xi_tXt+1​=Yt​−ξt​.

A policy chooses YtY_tYt​ as any integer function of the information available at the start of period ttt. Given X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x, that information is determined by xxx and ξ1,…,ξt−1\xi_1, \dots, \xi_{t-1}ξ1​,…,ξt−1​. Policies may therefore depend on the whole history; they are not required to be Markov.

Costs are summarized by a set-up cost K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, a discount factor 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1 and a one-period cost Gα:Z→RG_\alpha : \mathbb Z \to \mathbb RGα​:Z→R. The paper reduces the model with purchase cost ccc, lead time λ\lambdaλ and holding–penalty cost LLL to these data by its Eq. (2), with Gα(y)=(1−α)cy+L(y)G_\alpha(y) = (1 - \alpha) c y + L(y)Gα​(y)=(1−α)cy+L(y). The nnn-period cost of a policy YYY from X1=xX_1 = xX1​=x is

fn(x∣Y)=∑t=1nαt−1[K E δ(Yt−Xt)+E Gα(Yt)],f_n(x \mid Y) = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \alpha^{t-1}\bigl[K\,E\,\delta(Y_t - X_t) + E\,G_\alpha(Y_t)\bigr],fn​(x∣Y)=t=1∑n​αt−1[KEδ(Yt​−Xt​)+EGα​(Yt​)],

where δ(0)=0\delta(0) = 0δ(0)=0 and δ(z)=1\delta(z) = 1δ(z)=1 for z>0z > 0z>0. A policy is optimal if it minimizes fn(x∣⋅)f_n(x \mid \cdot)fn​(x∣⋅) for every xxx simultaneously. The standing assumptions are that GαG_\alphaGα​ is convex on the integers (non-decreasing forward differences) and Gα(y)→∞G_\alpha(y) \to \inftyGα​(y)→∞ as ∣y∣→∞|y| \to \infty∣y∣→∞.

The bounds (p. 537) are defined as follows. S‾\underline{S}S​ is the smallest minimizer of GαG_\alphaGα​. Sˉ\bar SSˉ is the smallest integer ≥S‾\ge \underline{S}≥S​ with Gα(Sˉ+1)≥Gα(S‾)+αKG_\alpha(\bar S + 1) \ge G_\alpha(\underline S) + \alpha KGα​(Sˉ+1)≥Gα​(S​)+αK (21). s‾\underline ss​ is the smallest integer with Gα(s‾)≤Gα(S‾)+KG_\alpha(\underline s) \le G_\alpha(\underline S) + KGα​(s​)≤Gα​(S​)+K (22). sˉ\bar ssˉ is the smallest integer with Gα(sˉ)≤Gα(S‾)+(1−α)KG_\alpha(\bar s) \le G_\alpha(\underline S) + (1 - \alpha)KGα​(sˉ)≤Gα​(S​)+(1−α)K (23).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(a)

For every n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 there is an optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy for the nnn-period model whose first-period rule (sn,Sn)(s_n, S_n)(sn​,Sn​) satisfies

s‾≤sn≤sˉ≤S‾≤Sn≤Sˉ.\underline{s} \le s_n \le \bar{s} \le \underline{S} \le S_n \le \bar{S}.s​≤sn​≤sˉ≤S​≤Sn​≤Sˉ.

Optimality is against all history-dependent policies and for every starting level. The existence of an optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy is part of the conclusion.

Milestones

  1. The characterization of S‾\underline SS​ by ΔGα(S‾−1)<0≤ΔGα(S‾)\Delta G_\alpha(\underline S - 1) < 0 \le \Delta G_\alpha(\underline S)ΔGα​(S​−1)<0≤ΔGα​(S​), and the existence of the parameters of (21)–(23).
  2. Lemma 2: S‾≤Sn\underline{S} \le S_nS​≤Sn​ for any optimal policy using (sn,Sn)(s_n, S_n)(sn​,Sn​) in period 1.
  3. Lemma 3: if sˉ<sn\bar s < s_nsˉ<sn​, some policy using (sˉ,Sn)(\bar s, S_n)(sˉ,Sn​) in period 1 costs no more, from every xxx.
  4. Lemma 4: if Sˉ<Sn\bar S < S_nSˉ<Sn​ (and sn≤sˉs_n \le \bar ssn​≤sˉ), some policy using (sn,S‾)(s_n, \underline S)(sn​,S​) in period 1 costs no more, from every xxx.
  5. Lemma 5: s‾≤sn\underline{s} \le s_ns​≤sn​ for any optimal policy using (sn,Sn)(s_n, S_n)(sn​,Sn​) in period 1.

Significance

The theorem turns the optimization over (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies into a search over a finite box that depends only on GαG_\alphaGα​, KKK and α\alphaα. The paper's Section 4 procedure for the infinite-horizon problem (Theorem 4(b), Step i) is built on this box, and the bounds also give an interpretation of sss and SSS: S‾\underline SS​ is the single-period optimum, and sˉ\bar ssˉ, s‾\underline ss​, Sˉ\bar SSˉ mark where the one-period cost exceeds that optimum by the fractions (1−α)K(1 - \alpha)K(1−α)K, KKK and αK\alpha KαK of the set-up cost.

The results are proved in the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof as far as is known; no discrete-state finite-horizon inventory model with set-up cost is on the platform. A formal proof would provide a reusable finite-horizon dynamic-programming model with history-dependent policies and extended-real expected costs, and a machine-checked version of the existence of optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies in the discrete setting, which Theorem 4(a) contains.

Difficulty

The four lemmas compare an optimal policy with an explicit modification of it. The modification in Lemmas 2 and 5 raises the stock in period 1 and then orders max⁡(Xt′,Ytn)\max(X'_t, Y^n_t)max(Xt′​,Ytn​), where YtnY^n_tYtn​ is the original policy's decision along the original demand path. This comparison policy is history-dependent even when the original policy is not, so the argument cannot be carried out inside the class of Markov or (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies. Expectations must be handled over finite demand histories, and costs can be infinite for general policies.

The goal also contains the existence of an optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policy for the nnn-period model. The paper cites this from Scarf and Zabel rather than proving it. Applying Lemma 3 or 4 yields an optimal policy whose later periods are no longer of (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) form. Restoring the (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) form requires the dynamic-programming principle of optimality together with the KKK-convexity argument.

Formalization scope

The Lean model (VeinottWagnerSS.Bounds.Model) uses the reduced model of Eq. (2): G : ℤ → ℝ is a primitive, and ccc, λ\lambdaλ and LLL do not appear. Stock levels are integers and demands are natural numbers; the demand law is a PMF ℕ with finite mean. A policy is Y : (t : ℕ) → ℤ → (Fin t → ℕ) → ℤ: period t+1t + 1t+1's level as a function of xxx and the first ttt demands, so it cannot see current or future demand. Periods are numbered from 000 in Lean. Expectations are sums over demand histories weighted by ∏iφ(ξi)\prod_i \varphi(\xi_i)∏i​φ(ξi​). E Gα(Yt)E\,G_\alpha(Y_t)EGα​(Yt​) is the difference of the expectations of the positive and negative parts, and fnf_nfn​ is valued in EReal. Under the standing assumptions GαG_\alphaGα​ is bounded below, so the negative part is finite and no ∞−∞\infty - \infty∞−∞ arises. Both α=1\alpha = 1α=1 and α=0\alpha = 0α=0 are allowed.

The bounds SLow, SHigh, sLow, sHigh are infima of the sets in (21)–(23); a milestone proves they are the least elements. A trivializing formalization is ruled out as follows. Optimality is over all admissible policies and for every xxx. The bounds are the least integers of (21)–(23). The goal requires an optimal policy, not only a bounded pair. Existence of an optimal policy is proved, not assumed.

Printed statements corrected. Lemma 4 as printed has no hypothesis on sns_nsn​. Its proof begins "By lemma 3 we may assume that sn≤sˉs_n \le \bar ssn​≤sˉ", and without that assumption (sn,S‾)(s_n, \underline S)(sn​,S​) need not be an (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) rule. The Lean statement adds sn≤sˉs_n \le \bar ssn​≤sˉ. The last display of the proof of Lemma 5 reads Gα(s‾+1)G_\alpha(\underline s + 1)Gα​(s​+1) where Gα(s‾−1)G_\alpha(\underline s - 1)Gα​(s​−1) is meant; this affects only the proof. The milestone texts are verbatim.

Useful contributions include lemmas on convex functions on Z\mathbb ZZ (monotonicity on either side of a minimizer), expectation lemmas for sums over Fin t → ℕ, and the finite-horizon principle of optimality for this model.

Selected references

  • A. F. Veinott, Jr. and H. M. Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(5), 525–552, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.5.525
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • E. Zabel, A Note on the Optimality of (S, s) Policies in Inventory Theory, Management Science 9(1), 123–125, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.123
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2), 259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
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Extremal Problems in Discrete Geometry: The Szemerédi–Trotter Incidence BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

How many times can nnn points and ttt lines in the plane meet? The question is the prototype of incidence geometry, and the answer controls a long list of problems in discrete and computational geometry: the number of lines rich in points, the number of distinct distances or unit distances among nnn points, the complexity of arrangements, and sum–product estimates in additive combinatorics. Erdős asked for the order of magnitude when t=nt = nt=n and conjectured that the answer is n4/3n^{4/3}n4/3; Erdős and Purdy asked for the matching bound on the number of lines containing at least kkk of the points.

Szemerédi and Trotter settled both questions in Extremal Problems in Discrete Geometry (Combinatorica 3 (1983) 381–392, doi:10.1007/BF02579194). Their principal theorem bounds the number of point–line incidences by c1n2/3t2/3c_1 n^{2/3} t^{2/3}c1​n2/3t2/3 over the whole range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), and the same paper derives from it the Erdős–Purdy bound on kkk-rich lines, a version of Dirac's conjecture (proved independently by Beck, Combinatorica 3 (1983)), and a bound on the number of sequences of line densities.

Timeline.

  • Erdős conjectures O(n4/3)O(n^{4/3})O(n4/3) incidences for nnn points and nnn lines, and shows by a grid construction that this order would be sharp.
  • 1983: Szemerédi and Trotter prove the bound c1n2/3t2/3c_1 n^{2/3} t^{2/3}c1​n2/3t2/3 for n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), with c1=1060c_1 = 10^{60}c1​=1060, by a minimal-counterexample argument and a covering lemma for squares from their earlier paper.
  • 1990: Clarkson, Edelsbrunner, Guibas, Sharir and Welzl give a second proof by cuttings, with a far smaller constant (Discrete Comput. Geom. 5 (1990) 99–160).
  • 1997: Székely derives the bound in a few lines from the crossing lemma (Combin. Probab. Comput. 6 (1997) 353–358).

Setting

Work in the Euclidean plane R2\mathbb R^2R2, written Plane in the Lean development. A line is an affine subspace l⊆R2l \subseteq \mathbb R^2l⊆R2 whose direction space has dimension one (IsLine l). Let P\mathcal PP be a finite set of nnn points and L\mathcal LL a finite family of ttt distinct lines. The number of incidences is

I(P,L)=#{(p,l)∈P×L:p∈l},I(\mathcal P, \mathcal L) = \#\{(p, l) \in \mathcal P \times \mathcal L : p \in l\},I(P,L)=#{(p,l)∈P×L:p∈l},

written incidences P L. The degree did_idi​ of a point pip_ipi​ is the number of lines of L\mathcal LL through it (degree L p), and the density yjy_jyj​ of a line ljl_jlj​ is the number of points of P\mathcal PP on it (density P l); so I=∑idi=∑jyjI = \sum_i d_i = \sum_j y_jI=∑i​di​=∑j​yj​.

For the covering lemma, coordinate axes are fixed and a square is a closed axis-parallel square Q(a,b,s)=[a,a+s]×[b,b+s]Q(a,b,s) = [a, a+s] \times [b, b+s]Q(a,b,s)=[a,a+s]×[b,b+s] with side s>0s > 0s>0 (closedSquare (a, b, s)); its interior is the open square (a,a+s)×(b,b+s)(a, a+s) \times (b, b+s)(a,a+s)×(b,b+s) (openSquare). A square contains the points of P\mathcal PP in the closed square, and a family of squares covers the points lying in at least one of them.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 381, restated and proved on p. 383)

There is an absolute constant c1c_1c1​ such that for every finite point set P\mathcal PP with ∣P∣=n|\mathcal P| = n∣P∣=n and every finite family L\mathcal LL of ttt distinct lines,

n≤t≤(n2)⟹I(P,L)≤c1 n2/3 t2/3.\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad I(\mathcal P, \mathcal L) \le c_1\, n^{2/3}\, t^{2/3}.n​≤t≤(2n​)⟹I(P,L)≤c1​n2/3t2/3.

The goal leaves c1c_1c1​ unspecified. The paper's proof gives c1=1060c_1 = 10^{60}c1​=1060, and later proofs give much smaller values; any improvement of the constant still proves this statement.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Section 3, display on p. 383. Two distinct lines meet in at most one point, so the number of good intersections is at most the number of pairs of lines:
∑i(di2)≤(t2),I22n−I2≤t22.\sum_{i} \binom{d_i}{2} \le \binom t2, \qquad \frac{I^2}{2n} - \frac I2 \le \frac{t^2}{2}.i∑​(2di​​)≤(2t​),2nI2​−2I​≤2t2​.
  1. Section 3, inequality (1), p. 384. 0.6 x+(1−x)2/3≤10.6\,x + (1-x)^{2/3} \le 10.6x+(1−x)2/3≤1 for 0<x≤1/20 < x \le 1/20<x≤1/2.
  2. Section 3, inequality (5), p. 385. x2/3+(1−x)/100+2−1/3(1−x)2/3≤1x^{2/3} + (1-x)/100 + 2^{-1/3}(1-x)^{2/3} \le 1x2/3+(1−x)/100+2−1/3(1−x)2/3≤1 for 0<x≤0.10 < x \le 0.10<x≤0.1, and the reverse strict inequality holds somewhere in (0.1,0.2)(0.1, 0.2)(0.1,0.2).
  3. Section 3, display on p. 387. With M=1010M = 10^{10}M=1010, 2i/3(1−2/M)4i/3≥200/((0.1)1/322/3)2^{i/3}(1 - 2/M)^{4i/3} \ge 200/((0.1)^{1/3} 2^{2/3})2i/3(1−2/M)4i/3≥200/((0.1)1/322/3) for every integer i≥30i \ge 30i≥30.
  4. Section 2, Lemma (covering lemma), p. 382. For integers 1≤r1≤n1 \le r_1 \le n1≤r1​≤n and r2≥256r1r_2 \ge 256 r_1r2​≥256r1​, every set of nnn points is covered, to at least n/16n/16n/16 of its points, by a family of squares with pairwise disjoint interiors, each containing between r1r_1r1​ and r2r_2r2​ of the points.

Significance

The result. The bound n2/3t2/3n^{2/3} t^{2/3}n2/3t2/3 is sharp up to the constant throughout the range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), as integer-grid configurations show. Outside that range the trivial bounds n+t2n + t^2n+t2 and t+n2t + n^2t+n2 take over. Theorem 1 is the source of the O(n2/k3)O(n^2/k^3)O(n2/k3) bound on kkk-rich lines (the paper's Theorem 2), of Beck's theorem (Theorem 3), and, through them, of the unit-distance bound O(n4/3)O(n^{4/3})O(n4/3), of the Elekes sum–product estimate and of many algorithmic bounds on arrangements. It is the first nontrivial case of the polynomial-partitioning incidence theory developed since 2010.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved, and reproved in several ways, for four decades. To the best of the mission's knowledge Mathlib has no statement of it, of the crossing lemma, or of any point–line incidence bound in the Euclidean plane. This mission produces a checked statement of the theorem with lines as genuine one-dimensional affine subspaces and an absolute constant. It also produces checked statements of the auxiliary facts the 1983 proof uses. A complete proof may follow the original argument, the cutting argument or Székely's crossing-lemma argument; any of them closes the goal.

Difficulty

Counting pairs of lines through common points (milestone 1) gives only I≲n1/2t+nI \lesssim n^{1/2} t + nI≲n1/2t+n, and its dual gives I≲t1/2n+tI \lesssim t^{1/2} n + tI≲t1/2n+t. These Cauchy–Schwarz bounds use only the fact that two lines meet at most once, a property shared by lines in finite projective planes, where the incidence count genuinely reaches order n3/2n^{3/2}n3/2. Any proof of the n2/3t2/3n^{2/3} t^{2/3}n2/3t2/3 bound must therefore use a property of the real plane that the finite geometries lack: order, continuity, or the planarity of drawings. Szemerédi and Trotter use it through a covering lemma for axis-parallel squares, whose proof is only cited in the paper ([7]). The remaining difficulty is keeping the constants of a multi-stage minimal-counterexample argument under control.

Formalization scope

The plane is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin 2). A line is an AffineSubspace ℝ Plane whose direction has Module.finrank equal to 111. Every statement requires IsLine of each member of L\mathcal LL, so neither the whole plane nor a single point counts as a line. The points form a Finset Plane and the lines a Finset (AffineSubspace ℝ Plane), which makes the ttt lines distinct. Incidences, degrees and densities are Finset.filter cardinalities under classical decidability. Powers n2/3n^{2/3}n2/3, t2/3t^{2/3}t2/3 are Real.rpow of the counts cast to R\mathbb RR, and (n2)\binom n2(2n​) is Nat.choose.

In the goal, the constant c1c_1c1​ is quantified before the points and the lines. The form "for every configuration there is a c1c_1c1​" is trivially true (take c1=I+1c_1 = I + 1c1​=I+1) and is not this theorem. Both ends of the range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​) are kept exactly: without the lower end, a single line through nnn collinear points has nnn incidences, more than c1n2/3c_1 n^{2/3}c1​n2/3 for large nnn.

The goal follows the wording of p. 381 ("at most"). The restatement on p. 383 says "less than", which fails at n=t=0n = t = 0n=t=0 and is equivalent for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 after doubling c1c_1c1​. The covering lemma is stated with the added non-degeneracy hypotheses 1≤r1≤n1 \le r_1 \le n1≤r1​≤n. As printed it fails when 0<n<r10 < n < r_10<n<r1​ (no square can hold r1r_1r1​ points), and when r1=r2=0r_1 = r_2 = 0r1​=r2​=0 with n>0n > 0n>0.

A full development needs a real-plane incidence toolkit: a crossing lemma or a cutting lemma, or the covering lemma with its quadtree proof. That toolkit is reusable for kkk-rich lines, Beck's theorem, unit distances and sum–product bounds, and contributions of such infrastructure as separate theorems are welcome. The three numerical milestones are self-contained real-analysis exercises.

Selected references

  • E. Szemerédi, W. T. Trotter, Jr., Extremal problems in discrete geometry, Combinatorica 3 (1983) 381–392. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579194
  • E. Szemerédi, W. T. Trotter, Jr., A combinatorial distinction between the Euclidean and projective planes, European J. Combin. 4 (1983) 385–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-6698(83)80036-5
  • J. Beck, On the lattice property of the plane and some problems of Dirac, Motzkin and Erdős in combinatorial geometry, Combinatorica 3 (1983) 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579184
  • K. L. Clarkson, H. Edelsbrunner, L. J. Guibas, M. Sharir, E. Welzl, Combinatorial complexity bounds for arrangements of curves and spheres, Discrete Comput. Geom. 5 (1990) 99–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02187783
  • L. A. Székely, Crossing numbers and hard Erdős problems in discrete geometry, Combin. Probab. Comput. 6 (1997) 353–358. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0963548397002976
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