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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. A high-probability approximation guarantee is a separate claim requiring an explicit probability bound. The optimum includes entangled states. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record
1 prover on it3 of 3 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
41 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers III: Parallel Projections — the Dual Average Vanishes and ADMM Reduces to Project-and-AverageTextbook

Motivation

Many feasibility problems ask for a point satisfying several constraints at once. When each constraint set admits a manageable Euclidean projection, a parallel method can project onto all sets independently and combine the results. Chapter 5 of Boyd, Parikh, Chu, Peleato and Eckstein (2011) places this construction inside the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). That connection matters when a single projection onto the intersection is difficult but projections onto its individual factors are available.

The chapter first rewrites constrained convex optimization as a split problem. It then treats feasibility for two sets and finally an arbitrary finite collection of sets. For the latter, the product of the sets captures the separate constraints, while a consensus set forces all copies of the variable to agree. These are ordinary finite dimensional convex sets, so the account applies to geometric feasibility and to constrained optimization subproblems in which projection is the computational primitive. The mission isolates the identities that let the product-space algorithm run through parallel individual projections and one average.

Setting

A Euclidean projection of a vector vvv onto a set CCC is a point p∈Cp\in Cp∈C closest to vvv in Euclidean distance. Each set Ai⊆Rn\mathcal A_i\subseteq\mathbb R^nAi​⊆Rn, for i=1,…,Ni=1,\ldots,Ni=1,…,N, is assumed nonempty, closed and convex, and N≥1N\ge1N≥1. These properties give a unique projection for every input. They do not require the common intersection ⋂iAi\bigcap_i\mathcal A_i⋂i​Ai​ to be nonempty: the iteration and the algebraic identities still make sense when the feasibility problem has no solution.

A block vector x=(x1,…,xN)x=(x_1,\ldots,x_N)x=(x1​,…,xN​) belongs to the product set C=A1×⋯×AN\mathcal C=\mathcal A_1\times\cdots\times\mathcal A_NC=A1​×⋯×AN​ exactly when xi∈Aix_i\in\mathcal A_ixi​∈Ai​ for all iii. The consensus set D\mathcal DD consists of constant block vectors (z,…,z)(z,\ldots,z)(z,…,z). The block average is xˉ=N−1∑ixi\bar x=N^{-1}\sum_i x_ixˉ=N−1∑i​xi​. Distances in the stacked space use the ordinary Euclidean metric, whose square is ∑i∥xi−yi∥22\sum_i\|x_i-y_i\|_2^2∑i​∥xi​−yi​∥22​. A block vector need not carry a function-space norm in the formalization for this metric to be stated precisely.

Starting with arbitrary z0∈Rnz^0\in\mathbb R^nz0∈Rn and u0=(ui0)u^0=(u_i^0)u0=(ui0​), the parallel projection ADMM run has three updates: each xik+1x_i^{k+1}xik+1​ is the projection of zk−uikz^k-u_i^kzk−uik​ onto Ai\mathcal A_iAi​; zk+1z^{k+1}zk+1 is the average of xik+1+uikx_i^{k+1}+u_i^kxik+1​+uik​; and uik+1=uik+xik+1−zk+1u_i^{k+1}=u_i^k+x_i^{k+1}-z^{k+1}uik+1​=uik​+xik+1​−zk+1. The uiku_i^kuik​ are scaled dual variables, formed using a penalty parameter ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0. The source presents these equations as the specialization of scaled ADMM for the indicator functions of C\mathcal CC and D\mathcal DD §5.1.2, pp. 35–36.

Formalization targets

The first targets identify the projections that make the iteration parallel:

ΠC(x)=(ΠA1(x1),…,ΠAN(xN)),ΠD(x)=(xˉ,…,xˉ).\Pi_{\mathcal C}(x)=(\Pi_{\mathcal A_1}(x_1),\ldots,\Pi_{\mathcal A_N}(x_N)),\qquad \Pi_{\mathcal D}(x)=(\bar x,\ldots,\bar x).ΠC​(x)=(ΠA1​​(x1​),…,ΠAN​​(xN​)),ΠD​(x)=(xˉ,…,xˉ).

The goal is the full reduction of a run. Its dual average is zero after every update, and its common vector equals the primal average from the following update onward:

uˉk+1=0(k≥0),zk+1=xˉk+1(k≥1).\bar u^{k+1}=0\quad(k\ge0),\qquad z^{k+1}=\bar x^{k+1}\quad(k\ge1).uˉk+1=0(k≥0),zk+1=xˉk+1(k≥1).

Consequently, for every k≥2k\ge2k≥2 and every iii, the same iterates obey the simpler two-line algorithm

xik+1=ΠAi(xˉk−uik),uik+1=uik+xik+1−xˉk+1.x_i^{k+1}=\Pi_{\mathcal A_i}(\bar x^k-u_i^k),\qquad u_i^{k+1}=u_i^k+x_i^{k+1}-\bar x^{k+1}.xik+1​=ΠAi​​(xˉk−uik​),uik+1​=uik​+xik+1​−xˉk+1.

If uˉ0=0\bar u^0=0uˉ0=0, those last identities hold already for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. The index qualification is necessary because z0z^0z0 is arbitrary, and z1z^1z1 still contains the initial dual average unless that average was zero. This is the precise reading of the source's “after the first step” statement §5.1.2, p. 36. The milestone list also records the indicator-function projection update on p. 33 and the averaged identities on p. 36.

Significance

The result identifies what information must pass between the parallel projection steps: each local step needs the shared average and its own dual displacement. It also fixes the relationship between the displayed three-variable ADMM iteration and the shorter project-and-average rule. Without the dual-average identity, replacing zkz^kzk by xˉk\bar x^kxˉk is not justified at the initial indices. The product and consensus projection identities explain why the update can be decomposed into independent local projections followed by a mean §5.1.2, p. 35.

The chapter's identities are known mathematical results; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of their stated finite dimensional version. A completed development supplies reusable statements about nearest-point projection onto products and diagonal sets, and a precise run predicate for later analysis of parallel ADMM. The goal is a statement about every valid run rather than a claim of convergence or existence of a feasible common point. Neither convergence nor feasibility of the intersection is concluded on these pages. Those distinctions keep the mission aligned with the actual scope of Chapter 5.

Difficulty

The product projection uses a sum of squared component distances. Treating a block vector as an arbitrary function and applying its default norm would change the metric, so a projection theorem stated that way would describe a different algorithm. The consensus projection likewise depends on the Euclidean sum and the finite average, including the condition N≥1N\ge1N≥1. The run reduction has a separate indexing difficulty: the vanishing average follows after one dual update, but the first simplified projection step can occur later because it uses the previous common vector. An argument that silently assumes z0=xˉ0z^0=\bar x^0z0=xˉ0 would erase the arbitrary initialization on the source page.

Formalization scope

Lean represents each Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and the NNN blocks as a function on Fin N; the latter is the source's 111-based indexing shifted to 000-based indices. Squared stacked distance is defined as the sum of squared component norms. The average uses the real factor 1/N1/N1/N only under 0<N0<N0<N. Individual projections reuse the published nearest-point relation RandomGradFree.Nonsmooth.IsMetricProjection. A run records the three updates as conditions on sequences, with arbitrary z0,u0z^0,u^0z0,u0 and unused x0x^0x0. The source's scaled dual variable uuu appears directly; ρ\rhoρ cancels from these projection updates once it is positive.

The source assumes closed convex sets; nonemptiness is stated explicitly here because a projection onto an empty set does not exist. The book prints −zk-z^k−zk in its averaged dual update on p. 36, while its defining update on p. 35 and the next line on p. 36 require −zk+1-z^{k+1}−zk+1. The formal statement uses the corrected index. The book also calls the individual sets Ci\mathcal C_iCi​ in its closing sentence; the sets defined for this subsection are Ai\mathcal A_iAi​. The milestone quote preserves the printed intermediate index. The goal includes the simplified primal and dual updates, since asserting only that the dual average vanishes would omit the chapter's advertised reduction.

The development needs finite sums in Euclidean spaces, convex-set projection, and elementary properties of product and diagonal sets. Product and consensus projection results are useful beyond ADMM. Contributions proving the four milestones, the full run theorem, or equivalent projection lemmas at the same generality are within scope.

Selected references

  • S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato and J. Eckstein, Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 3(1), 2011, pp. 1–122. DOI: 10.1561/2200000016.
8 thms2 active usersReviewed
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Operations ResearchOptimal TransportOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport 3: A Worst-Case Transport Plan Exists in a Locally Compact Normed Space under Growth Conditions on c and fResearch Paper

Motivation

In distributionally robust modelling, a baseline probability model μ\muμ on a space SSS is distrusted, and the analyst reports the largest expected loss over every model within a budget of μ\muμ. Blanchet and Murthy (arXiv:1604.01446; Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019, doi:10.1287/moor.2018.0936) measure the budget with an optimal transport cost and prove strong duality for the resulting worst-case expectation on an arbitrary Polish space, with a lower semicontinuous cost and an upper semicontinuous performance function. Duality computes the worst-case value. A risk manager also wants the worst-case model: a distribution that attains the value, whose structure explains which perturbation of μ\muμ is most harmful.

Such a model need not exist. Unlike the Kantorovich problem, where the set of couplings with two fixed marginals is weakly compact, the feasible set here fixes only one marginal and is not compact in general. Section 5 of the paper gives an example on R\mathbb RR where the supremum is not attained, then gives abstract conditions under which it is (Proposition 9), and growth conditions on a locally compact normed space that imply them (Corollary 1). Related existence results in Rd\mathbb R^dRd were obtained by Gao and Kleywegt (arXiv:1604.02199, 2016) and, for empirical baselines and norm costs, by Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1505.05116, 2018).

Setting

Let SSS be a Polish space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra, μ\muμ a probability measure on SSS, δ>0\delta>0δ>0 a budget, c:S×S→[0,∞)c:S\times S\to[0,\infty)c:S×S→[0,∞) a cost and f:S→Rf:S\to\mathbb Rf:S→R a performance function. The standing assumptions are:

  • (A1) ccc is lower semicontinuous and c(x,y)=0c(x,y)=0c(x,y)=0 iff x=yx=yx=y;
  • (A2) fff is upper semicontinuous and μ\muμ-integrable.

The primal feasible set Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ consists of the probability measures π\piπ on S×SS\times SS×S with first marginal μ\muμ and ∫c dπ≤δ\int c\,d\pi\le\delta∫cdπ≤δ (transport plans out of μ\muμ of cost at most δ\deltaδ). The primal objective is I(π)=∫f(y) dπ(x,y)I(\pi)=\int f(y)\,d\pi(x,y)I(π)=∫f(y)dπ(x,y) and the primal value is I=sup⁡{I(π):π∈Φμ,δ}I=\sup\{I(\pi):\pi\in\Phi_{\mu,\delta}\}I=sup{I(π):π∈Φμ,δ​}. The dual feasible set Λc,f\Lambda_{c,f}Λc,f​ consists of pairs (λ,φ)(\lambda,\varphi)(λ,φ) with λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, φ:S→[−∞,∞]\varphi:S\to[-\infty,\infty]φ:S→[−∞,∞] universally measurable and φ(x)+λc(x,y)≥f(y)\varphi(x)+\lambda c(x,y)\ge f(y)φ(x)+λc(x,y)≥f(y) for all x,yx,yx,y. The dual objective is J(λ,φ)=λδ+∫φ dμJ(\lambda,\varphi)=\lambda\delta+\int\varphi\,d\muJ(λ,φ)=λδ+∫φdμ and the dual value is J=inf⁡J(λ,φ)J=\inf J(\lambda,\varphi)J=infJ(λ,φ). For λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 put φλ(x)=sup⁡y{f(y)−λc(x,y)}\varphi_\lambda(x)=\sup_y\{f(y)-\lambda c(x,y)\}φλ​(x)=supy​{f(y)−λc(x,y)}.

Section 5 assumes throughout that (λ∗,φλ∗)∈Λc,f(\lambda^*,\varphi_{\lambda^*})\in\Lambda_{c,f}(λ∗,φλ∗​)∈Λc,f​ is a dual optimal pair with I=J=J(λ∗,φλ∗)<∞I=J=J(\lambda^*,\varphi_{\lambda^*})<\inftyI=J=J(λ∗,φλ∗​)<∞. Write Φμ,δ′\Phi'_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ′​ for the plans in Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ concentrated on {f(x)≤f(y)}\{f(x)\le f(y)\}{f(x)≤f(y)}.

(P-Compactness): for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there are a compact KεK_\varepsilonKε​ with μ(Kε)>1−ε\mu(K_\varepsilon)>1-\varepsilonμ(Kε​)>1−ε and γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 such that {(x,y)∈Kε×S:f(y)−λ∗c(x,y)≥φλ∗(x)−γ}\{(x,y)\in K_\varepsilon\times S: f(y)-\lambda^*c(x,y)\ge\varphi_{\lambda^*}(x)-\gamma\}{(x,y)∈Kε​×S:f(y)−λ∗c(x,y)≥φλ∗​(x)−γ} has compact closure. (P-USC): lim sup⁡nI(πn)≤I(π∗)\limsup_n I(\pi_n)\le I(\pi^*)limsupn​I(πn​)≤I(π∗) whenever πn∈Φμ,δ′\pi_n\in\Phi'_{\mu,\delta}πn​∈Φμ,δ′​ converge weakly to π∗∈Φμ,δ\pi^*\in\Phi_{\mu,\delta}π∗∈Φμ,δ​.

On a normed space EEE: (A3) c(x,y)≥g(∥x−y∥)c(x,y)\ge g(\|x-y\|)c(x,y)≥g(∥x−y∥) for ∥x−y∥>C\|x-y\|>C∥x−y∥>C, with ggg nondecreasing and g(t)↑∞g(t)\uparrow\inftyg(t)↑∞. (A4) (f(y)−f(x))/(1+h(∥x−y∥))≤K(f(y)-f(x))/(1+h(\|x-y\|))\le K(f(y)−f(x))/(1+h(∥x−y∥))≤K for an increasing hhh with h(t)↑∞h(t)\uparrow\inftyh(t)↑∞; and for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, f(y)−f(x)≤ε(1+c(x,y))f(y)-f(x)\le\varepsilon(1+c(x,y))f(y)−f(x)≤ε(1+c(x,y)) once ∥x−y∥>Cε\|x-y\|>C_\varepsilon∥x−y∥>Cε​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1 (p. 27)

Let EEE be a real normed space that is locally compact, and let c,fc,fc,f satisfy (A1)–(A4). Under the standing assumption, if λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0 there is π∗∈Φμ,δ\pi^*\in\Phi_{\mu,\delta}π∗∈Φμ,δ​ with

I(π∗)=I=J=J(λ∗,φλ∗).I(\pi^*)=I=J=J(\lambda^*,\varphi_{\lambda^*}).I(π∗)=I=J=J(λ∗,φλ∗​).

Milestones

  1. Remark 4, (10)–(11) (p. 8): for π∈Φμ,δ\pi\in\Phi_{\mu,\delta}π∈Φμ,δ​, I−I(π)I-I(\pi)I−I(π) is the sum of two nonnegative gaps, ∫(φλ∗(x)−f(y)+λ∗c(x,y)) dπ\int(\varphi_{\lambda^*}(x)-f(y)+\lambda^*c(x,y))\,d\pi∫(φλ∗​(x)−f(y)+λ∗c(x,y))dπ and λ∗(δ−∫c dπ)\lambda^*(\delta-\int c\,d\pi)λ∗(δ−∫cdπ); so an ε\varepsilonε-optimal plan has both gaps at most ε\varepsilonε.
  2. Lemma 17 (p. 43): every plan in Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ can be replaced by one in Φμ,δ′\Phi'_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ′​ with at least the same value.
  3. §5 display (p. 26): I=sup⁡{I(π):π∈Φμ,δ′}I=\sup\{I(\pi):\pi\in\Phi'_{\mu,\delta}\}I=sup{I(π):π∈Φμ,δ′​}.
  4. Proposition 9 (p. 26): on a Polish space, (P-Compactness) and (P-USC) give a primal optimizer.
  5. Corollary 1, Step 1 (p. 28): (A1)–(A4) and λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0 give (P-Compactness).
  6. Corollary 1, Step 2 (pp. 28–29): (A1), (A2), (A4) and I<∞I<\inftyI<∞ give (P-USC):
lim sup⁡n∫f(y) dπn≤∫f(y) dπ∗.\limsup_n\int f(y)\,d\pi_n\le\int f(y)\,d\pi^*.nlimsup​∫f(y)dπn​≤∫f(y)dπ∗.

Significance

The result. An attained worst case turns duality into a structural statement. By Theorem 1(b) of the paper, an optimizer moves mass from xxx only to maximizers of f(y)−λ∗c(x,y)f(y)-\lambda^*c(x,y)f(y)−λ∗c(x,y) and, when λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0, uses the full budget. When those maximizers are unique (Remark 8: ccc convex in yyy, fff concave) the worst-case model is unique and is the image of μ\muμ under a transport map. That map is what stress tests and robust estimators are built from. Without existence, these statements describe an object that may not be there.

Formalizing it. The paper's proofs are complete; nothing here is open. No machine-checked version of this result is known: the worst-case optimal transport literature, including the strong duality of this paper, is unformalized. The mission produces the transport objects of §2 in a form that keeps the paper's generality (Polish space, lower semicontinuous real cost, universally measurable dual variables, the ∞−∞\infty-\infty∞−∞ convention), a tightness argument for nearly optimal one-marginal plans, and an upper semicontinuity argument for unbounded upper semicontinuous integrands under uniform integrability.

Difficulty

The obvious argument takes a maximizing sequence and extracts a weak limit. Both steps fail without more structure. First, Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ is not tight: only the first marginal is fixed, and a sequence may push mass to infinity at bounded cost. That is exactly what happens in Example 2 (p. 26), where λ∗=0\lambda^*=0λ∗=0 and the value 111 is approached but never reached. Tightness has to come from the dual: nearly optimal plans concentrate near maximizers of f(y)−λ∗c(x,y)f(y)-\lambda^*c(x,y)f(y)−λ∗c(x,y), and (A3)–(A4) with λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0 confine those maximizers. Second, fff is only upper semicontinuous and unbounded, so weak convergence alone does not give lim sup⁡∫f dπn≤∫f dπ∗\limsup\int f\,d\pi_n\le\int f\,d\pi^*limsup∫fdπn​≤∫fdπ∗. A uniform integrability bound is needed, and it uses the restriction to Φμ,δ′\Phi'_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ′​ in an essential way. A third, Lean-specific difficulty is measure-theoretic: φλ∗\varphi_{\lambda^*}φλ∗​ is only universally measurable, and the gaps of Remark 4 are integrals against completions.

Formalization scope

All declarations sit in the namespace ModelRiskOT.PrimalOpt. Values of I(π)I(\pi)I(π), III, J(λ,φ)J(\lambda,\varphi)J(λ,φ), JJJ and φλ\varphi_\lambdaφλ​ are in EReal. I(π)I(\pi)I(π) is ∫f+(y) dπ−∫f−(y) dπ\int f^+(y)\,d\pi-\int f^-(y)\,d\pi∫f+(y)dπ−∫f−(y)dπ with lower integrals, and Mathlib's ⊤−⊤=⊥\top-\top=\bot⊤−⊤=⊥ realises the paper's reading of the supremum (footnote 2, p. 5). Integrals of nonnegative or extended-real functions are lower integrals (lintegral), never Bochner integrals. Universal measurability is the published BertsekasShreve.AnalyticSelection.IsUniversallyMeasurable. Weak convergence is the topology of ProbabilityMeasure (S × S). Measures on S×SS\times SS×S use the product σ\sigmaσ-algebra.

The following readings are fixed:

  • The standing assumption of §5 ((λ∗,φλ∗)∈Λc,f(\lambda^*,\varphi_{\lambda^*})\in\Lambda_{c,f}(λ∗,φλ∗​)∈Λc,f​, I=JI=JI=J, J=J(λ∗,φλ∗)J=J(\lambda^*,\varphi_{\lambda^*})J=J(λ∗,φλ∗​), finiteness) consists of hypotheses of Proposition 9 and Corollary 1. I=JI=JI=J is Theorem 1(a), the goal of the companion mission on strong duality, and is not assumed proved here.
  • In (P-Compactness) the constant γ\gammaγ may depend on ε\varepsilonε.
  • "Increasing" in (A4) is strict.
  • Remark 4's second conclusion in (11) is also stated as λ∗(δ−∫c dπ)≤ε\lambda^*(\delta-\int c\,d\pi)\le\varepsilonλ∗(δ−∫cdπ)≤ε, which covers λ∗=0\lambda^*=0λ∗=0.
  • Lemma 17's last inequality is stated for every plan, which is equivalent under the EReal convention.
  • Corollary 1's space is a real normed space with LocallyCompactSpace. It also carries PolishSpace, which is redundant, since a locally compact real normed space is finite-dimensional.

The goal cannot be satisfied by a junk value: III and JJJ are EReal suprema and infima, not real sSup, and the hypothesis λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0 is kept because Example 2 shows the conclusion fails without it. A sorry-free check that c(x,y)=(x−y)2c(x,y)=(x-y)^2c(x,y)=(x−y)2, f(y)=yf(y)=yf(y)=y on R\mathbb RR satisfy (A1), (A3) and (A4) accompanies the drafts.

A complete development needs Prokhorov's theorem (in Mathlib), a Fatou lemma for weakly converging measures with a lower semicontinuous integrand, an upper semicontinuity theorem for uniformly integrable upper semicontinuous integrands, and the change of variables ∫φ(x) dπ=∫φ dμ\int\varphi(x)\,d\pi=\int\varphi\,d\mu∫φ(x)dπ=∫φdμ for universally measurable φ\varphiφ. The last three are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and these general lemmas as separate contributions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet and K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2):565–600, 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2, doi:10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • R. Gao and A. Kleywegt, Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance, 2016. arXiv:1604.02199
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani and D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Math. Program. 171:115–166, 2018. arXiv:1505.05116
  • A. M. Zapała, Unbounded mappings and weak convergence of measures, Statist. Probab. Lett. 78(6):698–706, 2008. doi:10.1016/j.spl.2007.09.033
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Operations ResearchOptimal TransportOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport 2: The Worst-Case Probability of a Closed Set A Equals the Baseline Probability of Its Inflation {x : c(x, A) ≤ 1/λ*}Research Paper

Motivation

A probability model μ\muμ for a risk quantity, such as the reserve process of an insurer or the path of a queue, is usually chosen for tractability or fitted to limited data, and the true law of the system is unknown. Distributional model risk asks how large a probability of interest could be if the true law were any model "close" to μ\muμ. When closeness is measured by an optimal transport cost rather than a likelihood ratio, the competing models may put mass where μ\muμ puts none, which is the situation for rare events such as ruin or buffer overflow: the event of interest often lies outside the support of the baseline.

Blanchet and Murthy (arXiv:1604.01446, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019) prove strong duality for worst-case expectations over an optimal-transport ball on a general Polish space, with a lower semicontinuous cost. Their §2.4 specializes the duality to worst-case probabilities of a closed set and obtains a closed-form answer: the worst-case probability of AAA is the baseline probability of an inflated version of AAA. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3 of the paper, together with the numbered statements its proof uses.

Setting

Let SSS be a Polish space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra, P(S)P(S)P(S) its probability measures, and μ∈P(S)\mu \in P(S)μ∈P(S) the baseline. A cost c:S×S→R+c : S \times S \to \mathbb R_+c:S×S→R+​ satisfies Assumption (A1): it is nonnegative, lower semicontinuous, and c(x,y)=0c(x,y) = 0c(x,y)=0 if and only if x=yx = yx=y.

For μ1,μ2∈P(S)\mu_1, \mu_2 \in P(S)μ1​,μ2​∈P(S), a coupling of μ1\mu_1μ1​ and μ2\mu_2μ2​ is a probability measure π\piπ on S×SS \times SS×S with marginals μ1\mu_1μ1​ and μ2\mu_2μ2​; Π(μ1,μ2)\Pi(\mu_1,\mu_2)Π(μ1​,μ2​) is the set of couplings, and the optimal transport cost is

dc(μ1,μ2)=inf⁡{∫c dπ:π∈Π(μ1,μ2)}.d_c(\mu_1,\mu_2) = \inf\Big\{\int c\,d\pi : \pi \in \Pi(\mu_1,\mu_2)\Big\}.dc​(μ1​,μ2​)=inf{∫cdπ:π∈Π(μ1​,μ2​)}.

For a budget δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, the primal feasible set Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ consists of the probability measures π\piπ on S×SS \times SS×S with first marginal μ\muμ and ∫c dπ≤δ\int c\,d\pi \le \delta∫cdπ≤δ.

Fix a nonempty closed set A⊆SA \subseteq SA⊆S and let c(x,A)=inf⁡{c(x,y):y∈A}c(x,A) = \inf\{c(x,y) : y \in A\}c(x,A)=inf{c(x,y):y∈A} be the cheapest cost of moving unit mass from xxx into AAA. The worst-case probability is

I=sup⁡{P(A):dc(μ,P)≤δ}.(12)I = \sup\{P(A) : d_c(\mu,P) \le \delta\}. \tag{12}I=sup{P(A):dc​(μ,P)≤δ}.(12)

Its dual is the univariate problem

inf⁡λ≥0{λδ+Eμ[(1−λc(X,A))+]},(13)\inf_{\lambda \ge 0}\Big\{\lambda\delta + E_\mu\big[(1 - \lambda c(X,A))^+\big]\Big\}, \tag{13}λ≥0inf​{λδ+Eμ​[(1−λc(X,A))+]},(13)

and for a minimizer λ∗∈[0,∞)\lambda^* \in [0,\infty)λ∗∈[0,∞) of (13) the paper defines

c‾=∫{c(x,A)<1/λ∗}c(x,A) dμ(x),c‾=∫{c(x,A)≤1/λ∗}c(x,A) dμ(x).(14)\underline c = \int_{\{c(x,A) < 1/\lambda^*\}} c(x,A)\,d\mu(x), \qquad \overline c = \int_{\{c(x,A) \le 1/\lambda^*\}} c(x,A)\,d\mu(x). \tag{14}c​=∫{c(x,A)<1/λ∗}​c(x,A)dμ(x),c=∫{c(x,A)≤1/λ∗}​c(x,A)dμ(x).(14)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 10)

If λ∗∈[0,∞)\lambda^* \in [0,\infty)λ∗∈[0,∞) attains the infimum in (13) and c‾=c‾\underline c = \overline cc​=c, then

sup⁡{P(A):dc(μ,P)≤δ}=μ{x:c(x,A)≤1/λ∗}.(15)\sup\{P(A) : d_c(\mu,P) \le \delta\} = \mu\{x : c(x,A) \le 1/\lambda^*\}. \tag{15}sup{P(A):dc​(μ,P)≤δ}=μ{x:c(x,A)≤1/λ∗}.(15)

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Coupling form (§2.2, p. 5, for f=1Af = 1_Af=1A​): I=sup⁡{π(S×A):π∈Φμ,δ}I = \sup\{\pi(S \times A) : \pi \in \Phi_{\mu,\delta}\}I=sup{π(S×A):π∈Φμ,δ​}.
  2. Indicator supremum (pp. 8–9): sup⁡y{1A(y)−λc(x,y)}=(1−λc(x,A))+\sup_{y}\{1_A(y) - \lambda c(x,y)\} = (1 - \lambda c(x,A))^+supy​{1A​(y)−λc(x,y)}=(1−λc(x,A))+ for λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0.
  3. (13) (p. 9): III equals the infimum in (13).
  4. Remark 4, (11) for f=1Af = 1_Af=1A​ (p. 8): an ε\varepsilonε-optimal plan πε\pi_\varepsilonπε​ satisfies ∫(φλ∗(x)−(1A(y)−λ∗c(x,y))) dπε≤ε\int(\varphi_{\lambda^*}(x) - (1_A(y) - \lambda^* c(x,y)))\,d\pi_\varepsilon \le \varepsilon∫(φλ∗​(x)−(1A​(y)−λ∗c(x,y)))dπε​≤ε and, for λ∗>0\lambda^* > 0λ∗>0, (δ−ε/λ∗)+≤∫c dπε≤δ(\delta - \varepsilon/\lambda^*)^+ \le \int c\,d\pi_\varepsilon \le \delta(δ−ε/λ∗)+≤∫cdπε​≤δ.
  5. Lemma 4 (p. 11): plans πn∈Φμ,δ\pi_n \in \Phi_{\mu,\delta}πn​∈Φμ,δ​, n>1n > 1n>1, with πn(Cn)≥1−1/n\pi_n(C_n) \ge 1 - 1/nπn​(Cn​)≥1−1/n, no cost outside the set CnC_nCn​ of §2.4.1, and πn(S×A)≥I−2/n\pi_n(S \times A) \ge I - 2/nπn​(S×A)≥I−2/n.
  6. Lemma 2 (p. 10): c‾≤δ≤c‾\underline c \le \delta \le \overline cc​≤δ≤c if λ∗>0\lambda^* > 0λ∗>0 attains (13); δ≥c‾=c‾\delta \ge \overline c = \underline cδ≥c=c​ if λ∗=0\lambda^* = 0λ∗=0 does.

Significance

Theorem 3 converts a supremum over an infinite-dimensional ball of probability measures into a single probability under the baseline: μ\muμ of the set of points that can reach AAA at cost at most 1/λ∗1/\lambda^*1/λ∗, where 1/λ∗1/\lambda^*1/λ∗ is determined by δ\deltaδ through the one-dimensional function u↦∫{c(x,A)≤u}c(x,A) dμu \mapsto \int_{\{c(x,A) \le u\}} c(x,A)\,d\muu↦∫{c(x,A)≤u}​c(x,A)dμ. For the cost c=dc = dc=d of a metric this is the baseline probability of the 1/λ∗1/\lambda^*1/λ∗-neighbourhood of AAA. The paper uses it to compute worst-case ruin probabilities for the Cramér–Lundberg model around a Brownian approximation (§3, §6.1), where SSS is a path space; the result applies there because nothing in it uses local compactness of SSS.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as the platform's corpus shows, neither it nor the strong duality behind it has been formalized. A formal development produces, beyond Theorem 3: a reusable definition of optimal transport costs with lower semicontinuous costs on Polish spaces; the coupling reformulation of the transport ball, which rests on the existence of optimal transport plans (Villani, Optimal Transport, Theorem 4.1), not in Mathlib; and an ε\varepsilonε-optimal-plan argument that avoids assuming a primal optimizer exists.

Difficulty

The heuristic derivation on pp. 9–10 constructs an optimal transport plan that moves each xxx with c(x,A)≤1/λ∗c(x,A) \le 1/\lambda^*c(x,A)≤1/λ∗ to a nearest point of AAA and leaves the others in place. It needs a nearest point to exist and to be selectable measurably, which fails for general closed AAA in a non-locally-compact space, and it needs a primal optimizer, which need not exist. Theorem 3 assumes neither, so the construction is not a proof. A second point is the boundary level c(x,A)=1/λ∗c(x,A) = 1/\lambda^*c(x,A)=1/λ∗: when μ\muμ charges it, as for atomic baselines, the identity (15) can fail (for μ\muμ a point mass at distance 111 from AAA and δ<1\delta < 1δ<1, the worst case is δ\deltaδ, not 111), and the hypothesis c‾=c‾\underline c = \overline cc​=c is exactly what excludes this. Measurability is a second obstacle: x↦c(x,A)x \mapsto c(x,A)x↦c(x,A) is an infimum of a lower semicontinuous function over AAA and in general only universally measurable, so integrals of it are taken against the completion of μ\muμ.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace ModelRiskOT.WorstProb. SSS carries [TopologicalSpace S] [PolishSpace S] [MeasurableSpace S] [BorelSpace S]; μ\muμ is a Measure S with IsProbabilityMeasure; the cost is a real-valued c : S → S → ℝ with (A1) bundled as a structure (nonnegativity, lower semicontinuity on S×SS \times SS×S, and c(x,y)=0  ⟺  x=yc(x,y) = 0 \iff x = yc(x,y)=0⟺x=y). Committed conventions:

  • Values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. dcd_cdc​, III, the objective of (13), c‾\underline cc​ and c‾\overline cc are ℝ≥0∞; integrals are lower Lebesgue integrals and the positive part (⋅)+(\cdot)^+(⋅)+ is ENNReal.ofReal. For the universally measurable functions and sets that occur, lower integrals and outer measures agree with the completion of μ\muμ, which is the paper's reading (p. 4). No Bochner integral is used.
  • The threshold 1/λ∗1/\lambda^*1/λ∗ is written in multiplied form: c(x,A)≤1/λ∗c(x,A) \le 1/\lambda^*c(x,A)≤1/λ∗ is λ∗c(x,A)≤1\lambda^* c(x,A) \le 1λ∗c(x,A)≤1, and likewise for the strict inequality and for the sets CnC_nCn​. For λ∗>0\lambda^* > 0λ∗>0 this is the printed condition; at λ∗=0\lambda^* = 0λ∗=0 it is the whole space, the paper's convention 1/0=∞1/0 = \infty1/0=∞.
  • dcd_cdc​ fixes both marginals; Φμ,δ\Phi_{\mu,\delta}Φμ,δ​ fixes only the first.
  • c(x,A)c(x,A)c(x,A) is a real infimum over the subtype AAA; every statement assumes AAA nonempty.
  • "λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ attains the infimum in (13)" is λ∗≥0\lambda^* \ge 0λ∗≥0 and g(λ∗)≤g(λ)g(\lambda^*) \le g(\lambda)g(λ∗)≤g(λ) for all λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0.
  • Inequalities X≥I−tX \ge I - tX≥I−t are written I≤X+tI \le X + tI≤X+t in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; sequences "n>1n > 1n>1" are indexed by n∈Nn \in \mathbb Nn∈N with 1<n1 < n1<n.

A formalization in which the transport ball fixes only the first marginal would contain every probability measure and give I=1I = 1I=1 for every nonempty AAA; the definitions here fix both marginals of the couplings in dcd_cdc​, and the hypothesis c‾=c‾\underline c = \overline cc​=c is kept as stated rather than replaced by continuity of u↦∫{c(x,A)≤u}c(x,A) dμu \mapsto \int_{\{c(x,A) \le u\}} c(x,A)\,d\muu↦∫{c(x,A)≤u}​c(x,A)dμ.

A complete development needs the existence of optimal couplings for lower semicontinuous costs (tightness and Prokhorov's theorem, available in Mathlib), the strong duality of the paper's Theorem 1 specialized to indicators (milestone 3; a separate mission in this series formalizes Theorem 1 in general), and universal measurability of c(⋅,A)c(\cdot,A)c(⋅,A) through projections of Borel sets. The transport-cost definitions and the coupling reformulation are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs that derive (13) from the general strong duality once that is published.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, arXiv:1604.01446v2, 2017; Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2):565–600, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01446, https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Grundlehren der mathematischen Wissenschaften 338, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
  • R. Gao, A. Kleywegt, Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance, arXiv:1604.02199, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.02199
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Mathematical Programming 171:115–166, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-017-1172-1
  • D. P. Bertsekas, S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978 (universal measurability, Ch. 7).
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling Deteriorating Jobs on a Single Processor I: Under Linear Deterioration, Sequencing by Increasing E(X_i)/α_i Minimizes the Expected MakespanResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical single-machine stochastic scheduling, NNN jobs with independent random processing requirements XiX_iXi​ are processed one after another, and the makespan (the completion time of the last job) is the same for every schedule that never idles: it is X1+⋯+XNX_1+\dots+X_NX1​+⋯+XN​. Research therefore concentrated on weighted flow times and rewards. Browne and Yechiali (Operations Research 38(3), 1990, 495–498) studied jobs that deteriorate while they wait: the longer a job is delayed, the more processing it needs. Such models arose in the control of queueing and communication systems (Browne 1988; Browne and Yechiali 1989) and in inventory issuing, where stored items lose quality at item-specific rates. Under deterioration the actual processing times depend on the order, so the makespan, and its expectation, become functions of the schedule, and the basic question is which order minimizes the expected makespan.

Setting

There are NNN jobs, all available at time 000, and a single processor. Job iii has an initial processing requirement XiX_iXi​, a random variable on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P): the time needed to complete job iii if it is processed first. Under linear deterioration, a job whose processing is delayed until time ttt needs

Yi(t)=Xi+αit,Y_i(t) = X_i + \alpha_i t,Yi​(t)=Xi​+αi​t,

where αi>0\alpha_i>0αi​>0 is its deterministic growth rate. A job stops deteriorating once it is put on the processor.

Only nonpreemptive strategies without idling are allowed, so a policy is a permutation π\piπ of {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}, with π(i)=j\pi(i)=jπ(i)=j meaning that job jjj is the iii-th processed. The completion times follow the model: S0(π)=0S_0(\pi)=0S0​(π)=0, and the job in position kkk starts at Sk−1(π)S_{k-1}(\pi)Sk−1​(π) and takes Yπ(k)(Sk−1(π))Y_{\pi(k)}(S_{k-1}(\pi))Yπ(k)​(Sk−1​(π)), so

Sk(π)=Sk−1(π)+Xπ(k)+απ(k)Sk−1(π),k=1,…,N.S_k(\pi) = S_{k-1}(\pi) + X_{\pi(k)} + \alpha_{\pi(k)} S_{k-1}(\pi), \qquad k = 1,\dots,N.Sk​(π)=Sk−1​(π)+Xπ(k)​+απ(k)​Sk−1​(π),k=1,…,N.

The makespan is SN(π)S_N(\pi)SN​(π) and the expected makespan is E SN(π)\mathrm E\,S_N(\pi)ESN​(π). In Lean these are completionTime X α π k ω, makespan X α π ω and expectedMakespan P X α π in the namespace DeterioratingJobs.Makespan.

The paper's Lemma 1 concerns, for real numbers μi\mu_iμi​ and γi\gamma_iγi​, the sum (1)

Fμ,γ(π)=∑i=1Nμπ(i)∏r=i+1Nγπ(r),F_{\mu,\gamma}(\pi) = \sum_{i=1}^{N} \mu_{\pi(i)} \prod_{r=i+1}^{N} \gamma_{\pi(r)},Fμ,γ​(π)=i=1∑N​μπ(i)​r=i+1∏N​γπ(r)​,

the Lean lemma1Sum μ γ π (empty product =1=1=1).

Formalization targets

Goal: the expected-makespan index rule (§1, p. 496)

If the XiX_iXi​ are integrable, αi>0\alpha_i>0αi​>0, and π\piπ schedules the jobs by increasing values of E(Xi)/αi\mathrm E(X_i)/\alpha_iE(Xi​)/αi​, then

E SN(π)≤E SN(σ)for every permutation σ.\mathrm E\,S_N(\pi) \le \mathrm E\,S_N(\sigma) \qquad\text{for every permutation } \sigma .ESN​(π)≤ESN​(σ)for every permutation σ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 495). If γi>1\gamma_i>1γi​>1 for all iii, the sum (1) is minimized over all permutations by any permutation ordered by increasing μi/[γi−1]\mu_i/[\gamma_i-1]μi​/[γi​−1], and maximized by any permutation ordered by decreasing values.
  2. Eq. (2) (p. 496). For every π\piπ and j≤Nj\le Nj≤N,
Sj(π)=∑i=1jXπ(i)∏r=i+1j(1+απ(r)).S_j(\pi) = \sum_{i=1}^{j} X_{\pi(i)} \prod_{r=i+1}^{j} \bigl(1+\alpha_{\pi(r)}\bigr).Sj​(π)=i=1∑j​Xπ(i)​r=i+1∏j​(1+απ(r)​).
  1. The expected makespan in the form (1) (p. 496, after (2)).
E SN(π)=∑i=1NE(Xπ(i))∏r=i+1N(1+απ(r))=FEX, 1+α(π).\mathrm E\,S_N(\pi) = \sum_{i=1}^{N} \mathrm E(X_{\pi(i)}) \prod_{r=i+1}^{N}\bigl(1+\alpha_{\pi(r)}\bigr) = F_{\mathrm E X,\,1+\alpha}(\pi).ESN​(π)=i=1∑N​E(Xπ(i)​)r=i+1∏N​(1+απ(r)​)=FEX,1+α​(π).

Significance

The result is an index rule: each job receives a number computed from its own data, E(Xi)/αi\mathrm E(X_i)/\alpha_iE(Xi​)/αi​, and sorting by that number is optimal. It needs only the means of the initial requirements, not their distributions, and it holds without independence. The same reduction to Lemma 1 gives the paper's other index rules: the variance of the makespan under independent requirements, the Poisson-shock model (5), Lévy-type growth (6) and setup/detach times (7). In inventory issuing, it says which stored item to issue first when items lose value at item-specific linear rates. Lemma 1 itself, which the paper attributes to Rau (1971) and relates to optimal search, is a general statement about ordering products of factors along a sequence.

The result is proved in the paper by an appeal to Lemma 1, whose proof is given there as one sentence ("direct upon an interchange argument"). None of these statements has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. This mission produces a formal model of linear deterioration on a single machine, a formal proof of the interchange lemma with ties handled, and the formal index rule.

Difficulty

The algebra of one adjacent interchange is short. The work is in passing from that local comparison to optimality over all N!N!N! permutations, with ties allowed: the paper speaks of "the permutation ordered by increasing values", but with equal indices several permutations qualify, and each of them must be shown optimal. The natural route, "an optimal permutation exists and must be sorted", needs care, because a sorted permutation is not unique and the swap that improves an unsorted permutation may only weakly improve it. On the probabilistic side, the expectation of the makespan must be reduced to the expectations of the XiX_iXi​; the makespan is a polynomial in the XiX_iXi​ with deterministic coefficients, so this is linearity of the integral, but integrability has to be carried through the recursion.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin N (0-based: Lean job i is the paper's job i+1i+1i+1); a policy is π : Equiv.Perm (Fin N) with π k the job in position k, as in the paper's π(i)=j\pi(i)=jπ(i)=j. N=0N=0N=0 is allowed.
  • The probability space is (Ω, P) with [IsProbabilityMeasure P]; XiX_iXi​ is Ω → ℝ; expectations are Bochner integrals, and every theorem about them assumes each XiX_iXi​ integrable. The growth rates are deterministic reals.
  • Completion times are defined by the model recursion Sk=Sk−1+Yπ(k)(Sk−1)S_{k}=S_{k-1}+Y_{\pi(k)}(S_{k-1})Sk​=Sk−1​+Yπ(k)​(Sk−1​), never by the closed form (2), so that (2) is a theorem about the model.
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases: "the permutation ordered by increasing values of viv_ivi​" means any permutation with k↦vπ(k)k\mapsto v_{\pi(k)}k↦vπ(k)​ non-strictly increasing (Monotone), and "decreasing" means Antitone; "is minimized" means ≤\le≤ against every permutation; "expected" means the integral of an integrable random variable.
  • Added hypotheses: αi>0\alpha_i>0αi​>0 in the goal (the paper divides by αi\alpha_iαi​ without stating it) and γi>1\gamma_i>1γi​>1 in Lemma 1 (the paper applies it only with γi=1+αi\gamma_i = 1+\alpha_iγi​=1+αi​ or (1+αi)2(1+\alpha_i)^2(1+αi​)2; for γi<1\gamma_i<1γi​<1 the ordering reverses).
  • Omitted assumptions: positivity of the XiX_iXi​ and their independence. The goal holds without them, so the formal statement is slightly more general than the paper's.
  • Trivializing formalizations are excluded: defining SSS by formula (2) would make milestone 2 a definition unfolding; a strictly increasing ordering would make the goal vacuous whenever two indices tie; ordering π−1\pi^{-1}π−1 instead of π\piπ states a different theorem; dropping integrability makes all expectations 000; allowing αi=0\alpha_i=0αi​=0 makes E(Xi)/αi=0\mathrm E(X_i)/\alpha_i=0E(Xi​)/αi​=0 a meaningless index.
  • Not formalized here: the variance result (3), the Poisson model (5), the Lévy model (6), Proposition 1, setup times (7), exponential growth (9), and the NP-hardness conjecture. Proposition 2 (weighted expected completion time) is the companion mission Scheduling Deteriorating Jobs on a Single Processor II.
  • Related platform items, none of which states these results: PalmQueueing.Ordering.interchange_permutations (interchange permutations of a GI/GI/1 queue) and the additive, non-deteriorating completion-time models MooreLateJobs.Shared.completionTime and NumStochOpt.ListScheduling.Makespan.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a reusable "sorted permutation minimizes a sum of products" lemma, and the variance index (3) as an extension.

Selected references

  • S. Browne, U. Yechiali, Scheduling Deteriorating Jobs on a Single Processor, Operations Research 38(3), 1990, 495–498. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.38.3.495
  • J. G. Rau, Minimizing a Function of Permutations of n Integers, Operations Research 19(1), 1971, 237–240. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.19.1.237
  • F. P. Kelly, A Remark on Search and Sequencing Problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 7(1), 1982, 154–157. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.7.1.154
  • R. W. Conway, W. L. Maxwell, L. W. Miller, Theory of Scheduling, Addison-Wesley, 1967.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers I: Under a Lagrangian Saddle Point, ADMM Residuals Vanish and Objective Values ConvergeTextbook

Why ADMM convergence matters

The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is one of the most widely used algorithms for large-scale convex optimization in statistics, machine learning and signal processing. Its appeal is decomposition: a problem whose objective splits into two parts, coupled only by a linear constraint, is solved by alternately minimizing over each part and updating a dual variable. Each subproblem is often a proximity operator, a projection or a small linear system, so ADMM turns problems such as the lasso, sparse inverse covariance selection and consensus fitting across many machines into sequences of simple steps. The survey of Boyd, Parikh, Chu, Peleato and Eckstein (DOI 10.1561/2200000016) made the method standard, and every algorithm in its later chapters is justified by one convergence result, stated in §3.2.1 and proved in Appendix A. This mission formalizes that result and the inequalities behind it.

The method goes back to Gabay and Mercier (1976). Eckstein and Bertsekas (1992) proved convergence through the theory of maximal monotone operators, by identifying ADMM with Douglas–Rachford splitting applied to the dual problem. The proof in Appendix A of the survey is different: it is a direct Lyapunov argument in finite dimensions that uses only convexity and elementary algebra.

Setting

Let f:Rn→R∪{+∞}f:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}f:Rn→R∪{+∞} and g:Rm→R∪{+∞}g:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}g:Rm→R∪{+∞}, let A∈Rp×nA\in\mathbb R^{p\times n}A∈Rp×n, B∈Rp×mB\in\mathbb R^{p\times m}B∈Rp×m and c∈Rpc\in\mathbb R^pc∈Rp. The problem is

minimize f(x)+g(z)subject to Ax+Bz=c,(3.1)\text{minimize } f(x)+g(z)\quad\text{subject to } Ax+Bz=c, \tag{3.1}minimize f(x)+g(z)subject to Ax+Bz=c,(3.1)

with optimal value p⋆=inf⁡{f(x)+g(z)∣Ax+Bz=c}p^\star=\inf\{f(x)+g(z)\mid Ax+Bz=c\}p⋆=inf{f(x)+g(z)∣Ax+Bz=c}. The augmented Lagrangian with parameter ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0 is

Lρ(x,z,y)=f(x)+g(z)+yT(Ax+Bz−c)+ρ2∥Ax+Bz−c∥22,L_\rho(x,z,y)=f(x)+g(z)+y^T(Ax+Bz-c)+\tfrac{\rho}{2}\|Ax+Bz-c\|_2^2,Lρ​(x,z,y)=f(x)+g(z)+yT(Ax+Bz−c)+2ρ​∥Ax+Bz−c∥22​,

and L0L_0L0​ is the ordinary Lagrangian. For ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, ADMM generates iterates by

xk+1∈argmin⁡xLρ(x,zk,yk),zk+1∈argmin⁡zLρ(xk+1,z,yk),yk+1=yk+ρ(Axk+1+Bzk+1−c).x^{k+1}\in\operatorname*{argmin}_x L_\rho(x,z^k,y^k),\quad z^{k+1}\in\operatorname*{argmin}_z L_\rho(x^{k+1},z,y^k),\quad y^{k+1}=y^k+\rho(Ax^{k+1}+Bz^{k+1}-c).xk+1∈xargmin​Lρ​(x,zk,yk),zk+1∈zargmin​Lρ​(xk+1,z,yk),yk+1=yk+ρ(Axk+1+Bzk+1−c).

The state is (zk,yk)(z^k,y^k)(zk,yk); x0x^0x0 plays no role. The primal residual is rk=Axk+Bzk−cr^k=Ax^k+Bz^k-crk=Axk+Bzk−c, the dual residual is sk=ρATB(zk−zk−1)s^k=\rho A^TB(z^k-z^{k-1})sk=ρATB(zk−zk−1), and pk=f(xk)+g(zk)p^k=f(x^k)+g(z^k)pk=f(xk)+g(zk).

Two assumptions are made. Assumption 1: fff and ggg are closed, proper and convex. Assumption 2: L0L_0L0​ has a saddle point (x⋆,z⋆,y⋆)(x^\star,z^\star,y^\star)(x⋆,z⋆,y⋆), i.e. L0(x⋆,z⋆,y)≤L0(x⋆,z⋆,y⋆)≤L0(x,z,y⋆)L_0(x^\star,z^\star,y)\le L_0(x^\star,z^\star,y^\star)\le L_0(x,z,y^\star)L0​(x⋆,z⋆,y)≤L0​(x⋆,z⋆,y⋆)≤L0​(x,z,y⋆) for all x,z,yx,z,yx,z,y. Nothing is assumed about the ranks of AAA and BBB. The convergence proof uses the Lyapunov function

Vk=1ρ∥yk−y⋆∥22+ρ∥B(zk−z⋆)∥22.V^k=\tfrac1\rho\|y^k-y^\star\|_2^2+\rho\|B(z^k-z^\star)\|_2^2 .Vk=ρ1​∥yk−y⋆∥22​+ρ∥B(zk−z⋆)∥22​.

Formalization targets

Goal: residual and objective convergence (§3.2.1, p. 17; Appendix A, p. 106)

Under Assumptions 1 and 2 and for ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, every ADMM run satisfies

rk→0,f(xk)+g(zk)→p⋆,sk→0(k→∞).r^k\to0,\qquad f(x^k)+g(z^k)\to p^\star,\qquad s^k\to0\qquad(k\to\infty).rk→0,f(xk)+g(zk)→p⋆,sk→0(k→∞).

The statement fixes no rate and no constant. It does not claim convergence of xkx^kxk or zkz^kzk, which fails in general (p. 17).

Milestones

In the order of Appendix A:

  1. (3.10) holds along the iteration: 0∈∂g(zk+1)+BTyk+10\in\partial g(z^{k+1})+B^Ty^{k+1}0∈∂g(zk+1)+BTyk+1 (§3.3, p. 18);
  2. the dual residual inclusion ρATB(zk+1−zk)∈∂f(xk+1)+ATyk+1\rho A^TB(z^{k+1}-z^k)\in\partial f(x^{k+1})+A^Ty^{k+1}ρATB(zk+1−zk)∈∂f(xk+1)+ATyk+1 (§3.3, p. 18);
  3. (A.3) p⋆−pk+1≤y⋆Trk+1p^\star-p^{k+1}\le y^{\star T}r^{k+1}p⋆−pk+1≤y⋆Trk+1;
  4. (A.2) pk+1−p⋆≤−(yk+1)Trk+1−ρ(B(zk+1−zk))T(−rk+1+B(zk+1−z⋆))p^{k+1}-p^\star\le-(y^{k+1})^Tr^{k+1}-\rho(B(z^{k+1}-z^k))^T(-r^{k+1}+B(z^{k+1}-z^\star))pk+1−p⋆≤−(yk+1)Trk+1−ρ(B(zk+1−zk))T(−rk+1+B(zk+1−z⋆));
  5. (3.11) pk−p⋆≤−(yk)Trk+(xk−x⋆)Tskp^k-p^\star\le-(y^k)^Tr^k+(x^k-x^\star)^Ts^kpk−p⋆≤−(yk)Trk+(xk−x⋆)Tsk;
  6. the monotonicity step (yk+1−yk)T(B(zk+1−zk))≤0(y^{k+1}-y^k)^T(B(z^{k+1}-z^k))\le0(yk+1−yk)T(B(zk+1−zk))≤0 for k≥1k\ge1k≥1 (p. 110);
  7. (A.6) Vk−Vk+1≥ρ∥rk+1−B(zk+1−zk)∥22V^k-V^{k+1}\ge\rho\|r^{k+1}-B(z^{k+1}-z^k)\|_2^2Vk−Vk+1≥ρ∥rk+1−B(zk+1−zk)∥22​;
  8. (A.1) Vk+1≤Vk−ρ∥rk+1∥22−ρ∥B(zk+1−zk)∥22V^{k+1}\le V^k-\rho\|r^{k+1}\|_2^2-\rho\|B(z^{k+1}-z^k)\|_2^2Vk+1≤Vk−ρ∥rk+1∥22​−ρ∥B(zk+1−zk)∥22​ for k≥1k\ge1k≥1;
  9. the summed bound ρ∑k≥1(∥rk+1∥22+∥B(zk+1−zk)∥22)≤V1\rho\sum_{k\ge1}(\|r^{k+1}\|_2^2+\|B(z^{k+1}-z^k)\|_2^2)\le V^1ρ∑k≥1​(∥rk+1∥22​+∥B(zk+1−zk)∥22​)≤V1, with rk→0r^k\to0rk→0 and B(zk+1−zk)→0B(z^{k+1}-z^k)\to0B(zk+1−zk)→0;
  10. the stopping-rule bound pk−p⋆≤−(yk)Trk+d∥sk∥2≤∥yk∥2∥rk∥2+d∥sk∥2p^k-p^\star\le-(y^k)^Tr^k+d\|s^k\|_2\le\|y^k\|_2\|r^k\|_2+d\|s^k\|_2pk−p⋆≤−(yk)Trk+d∥sk∥2​≤∥yk∥2​∥rk∥2​+d∥sk∥2​ when ∥xk−x⋆∥2≤d\|x^k-x^\star\|_2\le d∥xk−x⋆∥2​≤d (§3.3.1, p. 19).

Significance

The theorem is what licenses every specialized ADMM of the survey (lasso, basis pursuit, covariance selection, consensus and sharing, distributed model fitting): each of these chapters only computes the subproblem solutions, and correctness of the overall method is inherited from §3.2.1. Inequality (3.11) and its corollary in §3.3.1 justify the primal/dual residual stopping criterion (3.12) used in practice: small residuals certify small suboptimality.

The result itself is classical and proved; it is not open. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of convex two-block ADMM convergence exists in Lean's Mathlib. Formalizing it produces a reusable development of the augmented Lagrangian method with explicit domain handling for extended-valued convex functions, and checks a proof whose index bookkeeping the printed text leaves loose (the monotonicity step and (A.1) need k≥1k\ge1k≥1, see below).

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "the subproblem optimality conditions plus the saddle point give a decreasing quantity", works only once the right Lyapunov function is found and the cross term −2ρ r(k+1)TB(zk+1−zk)-2\rho\, r^{(k+1)T}B(z^{k+1}-z^k)−2ρr(k+1)TB(zk+1−zk) is controlled. That term has no sign from the optimality conditions of a single iteration, and at the first iteration, where z0z^0z0 is an arbitrary starting point, the decrease (A.1) can genuinely fail. A second obstacle is that xkx^kxk and zkz^kzk need not converge or even be bounded when AAA or BBB is rank deficient, so objective convergence cannot pass through limits of the primal iterates; it has to come from the two-sided bounds (A.2) and (A.3). Finally, the subdifferential sum rule used to linearize each subproblem must be handled for functions taking the value +∞+\infty+∞.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); matrices act through Matrix.toEuclideanLin; the problem data are bundled in a structure Problem n m p.
  • An extended-valued fff is encoded by its effective domain CfC_fCf​ and its real values on CfC_fCf​. Assumption 1 is: CfC_fCf​ nonempty, fff convex on CfC_fCf​, epigraph over CfC_fCf​ closed. All minimizations, and the saddle-point inequality in (x,z)(x,z)(x,z), range over the domains; this is equivalent to the book's formulation with +∞+\infty+∞.
  • p⋆p^\starp⋆ is the infimum over feasible points of the domains, not f(x⋆)+g(z⋆)f(x^\star)+g(z^\star)f(x⋆)+g(z⋆) by definition.
  • The run is a hypothesis. An ADMM run is any triple of sequences satisfying (3.2)–(3.4) exactly. The book asserts on p. 16 that Assumption 1 makes the subproblems solvable; this is false in general (f(x)=ex1f(x)=e^{x_1}f(x)=ex1​, A=[0 1]A=[0\ 1]A=[0 1]), so no statement constructs iterates. A formalization that defined the iterates by choice, or required Axk+Bzk=cAx^k+Bz^k=cAxk+Bzk=c of a run, would trivialize the residual claim and is ruled out.
  • Indices: k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N starts at the book's k=0k=0k=0. Statements about xkx^kxk, rkr^krk, sks^ksk, pkp^kpk are for k≥1k\ge1k≥1 (written with k+1k+1k+1). The monotonicity step and (A.1) are stated for k≥1k\ge1k≥1; the book states (A.1) without a range, and at k=0k=0k=0 with an arbitrary z0z^0z0 it can fail. The summed bound accordingly starts at k=1k=1k=1 and is bounded by V1V^1V1 instead of V0V^0V0; it is stated as a bound on every partial sum.
  • Subdifferentials (milestones 1–2) use the published ShorNonsmooth.Subdiff.subdifferential relative to the domain.
  • The dual-variable convergence yk→y⋆y^k\to y^\staryk→y⋆ listed in §3.2.1 is not proved in the book and is not a target.

A complete development needs the subdifferential of a convex function plus a differentiable quadratic, the first-order characterization of a constrained minimizer, and elementary limits; all of this is reusable for the later missions of the series, which take ADMM runs as given. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, J. Eckstein, Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 3(1), 2011, pp. 1–122. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000016
  • D. Gabay, B. Mercier, A dual algorithm for the solution of nonlinear variational problems via finite element approximation, Computers & Mathematics with Applications 2(1), 1976, pp. 17–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/0898-1221(76)90003-1
  • J. Eckstein, D. P. Bertsekas, On the Douglas–Rachford splitting method and the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators, Mathematical Programming 55, 1992, pp. 293–318. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581204
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power of Robust Solutions in Two-Stage Stochastic and Adaptive Optimization Problems 4: For Symmetric Cost and Right-Hand-Side Uncertainty, the Adaptability Gap Is at Most FourResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage optimization separates a decision made before uncertainty is observed from one made after a scenario is known. A fully adaptive policy can choose a different second-stage decision in each scenario, while a static robust solution commits to a single second-stage decision that works in every scenario. Static solutions can be simpler to implement, but their worst-case cost may be higher. Bertsimas and Goyal ask how large this cost difference can be when both the right-hand sides of the constraints and the second-stage prices vary. Their Theorem 5.1 gives a factor of four when the paired uncertainty set is symmetric and nonnegative, even when both stages contain integer variables.

The distinction matters in planning problems where one policy is fixed in advance and another could respond to realized demand or prices. A uniform bound lets a planner assess the cost of the static restriction without solving every adaptive policy exactly. The source is the authors' manuscript; all page and result numbers in this mission refer to that manuscript, not to the journal pagination.

Setting

Fix matrices A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​ and B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​. A scenario ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omegaω∈Ω supplies a right-hand side b(ω)∈R+mb(\omega)\in\mathbb R_+^mb(ω)∈R+m​ and a second-stage cost vector d(ω)∈R+n2d(\omega)\in\mathbb R_+^{n_2}d(ω)∈R+n2​​. The first-stage cost vector is c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R_+^{n_1}c∈R+n1​​. For a set III of designated integer coordinates, write DID_IDI​ for the nonnegative real vectors whose coordinates in III are integers. After relabelling, this is the paper's R+n−p×Z+p\mathbb R_+^{n-p}\times\mathbb Z_+^pR+n−p​×Z+p​.

In the robust problem ΠRob(b,d)\Pi_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b,d)ΠRob​(b,d), one first-stage decision x∈DI1x\in D_{I_1}x∈DI1​​ and one second-stage decision y∈DI2y\in D_{I_2}y∈DI2​​ must satisfy Ax+By≥b(ω)Ax+By\ge b(\omega)Ax+By≥b(ω) for every scenario. Their cost is cTx+sup⁡ω∈Ωd(ω)Tyc^Tx+\sup_{\omega\in\Omega}d(\omega)^TycTx+supω∈Ω​d(ω)Ty. In the adaptive problem ΠAdapt(b,d)\Pi_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(b,d)ΠAdapt​(b,d), xxx is still chosen once, but y(ω)∈DI2y(\omega)\in D_{I_2}y(ω)∈DI2​​ may depend on the scenario. Its constraints are Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω) for every ω\omegaω, and its cost is cTx+sup⁡ω∈Ωd(ω)Ty(ω)c^Tx+\sup_{\omega\in\Omega}d(\omega)^Ty(\omega)cTx+supω∈Ω​d(ω)Ty(ω). The optimal values zRob(b,d)z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b,d)zRob​(b,d) and zAdapt(b,d)z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(b,d)zAdapt​(b,d) are infima over feasible decisions in these respective problems; these are models (1.5)–(1.6).

The paired uncertainty set is I(b,d)(Ω)={(b(ω),d(ω)):ω∈Ω}I_{(b,d)}(\Omega)=\{(b(\omega),d(\omega)): \omega\in\Omega\}I(b,d)​(Ω)={(b(ω),d(ω)):ω∈Ω}. It is symmetric when it contains a point u0u^0u0 such that u0+zu^0+zu0+z belongs to the set exactly when u0−zu^0-zu0−z does, for every displacement zzz. The point u0u^0u0 is itself a scenario realization. The smallest coordinatewise bounding hypercube has lower and upper corners (bl,dl)(b^l,d^l)(bl,dl) and (bh,dh)(b^h,d^h)(bh,dh); its center is ((bl+bh)/2,(dl+dh)/2)((b^l+b^h)/2,(d^l+d^h)/2)((bl+bh)/2,(dl+dh)/2). These are Definition 1.2 and displays (2.5)–(2.7).

Formalization targets

The adaptability gap

The goal is Theorem 5.1:

zRob(b,d)≤4zAdapt(b,d).z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b,d)\le 4z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(b,d).zRob​(b,d)≤4zAdapt​(b,d).

The factor applies to every nonnegative symmetric paired uncertainty set and to both continuous and mixed-integer decisions. The theorem does not require an optimal adaptive policy to attain its infimum. The milestones record the source's geometric Lemma 2.3 and the estimates labelled (5.1)–(5.4), which supply the center-scenario cost and feasibility statements with the explicit factor four. They are stated for arbitrary feasible adaptive policies so the conclusion also covers nonattained infima.

Significance

The result bounds the price of committing to a single second-stage decision, despite uncertainty in both the constraints and the objective. In this setting the comparison is independent of the number of scenarios and of the dimensions m,n1,n2m,n_1,n_2m,n1​,n2​. The paper also considers right-hand-side-only uncertainty, positive sets, and hypercubes; this mission isolates its symmetric paired-uncertainty result §5.1.

The theorem is proved in the paper. The remaining formalization work is a machine-checked development of the model, the bounding-hypercube geometry, the cost inequalities, and the passage from arbitrary feasible policies to the optimal values. The resulting definitions of mixed-integer domains, robust and adaptive feasibility, and extended-real optimal values can also support the other results in this paper's mission series. The theorem statements here are open proof targets, with no machine-checked proofs claimed.

Difficulty

The worst-case maximizer of d(ω)Ty(ω)d(\omega)^Ty(\omega)d(ω)Ty(ω) can vary with ω\omegaω, and an adaptive policy can choose a different integer vector in every scenario. Selecting one of those vectors as a static decision therefore gives no immediate cost or feasibility guarantee. The point of symmetry is a realizable scenario, but it must control both components of every other paired scenario. Without nonnegative data, doubling the center-scenario decision may fail to cover a positive right-hand side, and the cost comparison can fail as well. Integer coordinates also constrain which scalings preserve the decision domain; the exact factor in the theorem is compatible with doubling, unlike arbitrary fractional rescalings.

Formalization scope

Vectors are real functions on finite index types, matrices use Mathlib's matrix-vector product, and inequalities are componentwise. The scenario set is the range of ω↦(b(ω),d(ω))\omega\mapsto(b(\omega),d(\omega))ω↦(b(ω),d(ω)), with a product-space symmetry predicate. No probability measure or measurability structure is used in these worst-case problems. Both stages may have integer coordinates designated by sets I1,I2I_1,I_2I1​,I2​; no continuous-only second-stage restriction is imposed.

Optimal values and worst-case costs use extended real numbers. An infeasible problem has value +∞+\infty+∞; a real infimum over an empty feasible set would incorrectly return a default zero. Symmetry includes a center belonging to the scenario range, so the scenario set is nonempty. Combined with nonnegative coordinates, symmetry bounds every scenario coordinate and makes the bounding-hypercube endpoints meaningful. The hypotheses retain c≥0c\ge0c≥0, b(ω)≥0b(\omega)\ge0b(ω)≥0, and d(ω)≥0d(\omega)\ge0d(ω)≥0, which the source uses in its factor-four estimate. A statement restricted to continuous recourse, an assumed optimal adaptive policy, or a zero-valued infeasible problem would not express this target.

The source prints Z+n2\mathbb Z_+^{n_2}Z+n2​​ in (1.5)–(1.6), although the model's second-stage integer count is p2p_2p2​; the domain here follows the surrounding p2p_2p2​ convention. Lemma 2.3 is stated here for nonnegative sets, the regime needed for its second inequality. Its coordinatewise suprema and infima agree with the printed maxima and minima in this bounded symmetric setting. Contributions to the shared domain and geometry lemmas, the mixed-integer scaling fact, and the optimal-value comparison are all useful to the goal.

Selected references

  • Dimitris Bertsimas and Vineet Goyal, On the Power of Robust Solutions in Two-Stage Stochastic and Adaptive Optimization Problems, authors' manuscript of Mathematics of Operations Research, 2010. DOI: 10.1287/moor.1090.0440.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power of Robust Solutions in Two-Stage Stochastic and Adaptive Optimization Problems 2: On the Non-Symmetric Uniform Simplex, the Robust Optimum Is at Least n + 1 Times the Stochastic OneResearch Paper

Motivation

Many operations problems are decided in two stages: a first-stage decision is fixed before an uncertain quantity is revealed, and a second-stage (recourse) decision is chosen afterwards. Two classical ways to optimize such a problem differ in how they treat the uncertainty. Two-stage stochastic optimization minimizes the expected cost under a probability distribution over scenarios, with a recourse decision adapted to each scenario. Robust optimization fixes a single solution that must be feasible for every scenario in an uncertainty set, and minimizes the worst-case cost. The robust problem is usually far easier to solve, but it is conservative; the question is how much it can lose.

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 2010) answer this for uncertain right-hand sides. Their main positive result (Theorem 2.1) bounds the stochasticity gap: if the uncertainty set and the probability measure are both symmetric, the robust optimum is at most twice the stochastic optimum. This mission formalizes the companion negative result, Theorem 2.6: once the uncertainty set is not symmetric, the gap is not bounded by any constant. The example is the simplest non-symmetric set in practice, the corner of the unit simplex, with the uniform distribution on it. It shows that the symmetry hypothesis in the positive result is not an artefact of the proof.

Setting

Fix matrices A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​ and costs c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a set of scenarios, b:Ω→R+mb:\Omega\to\mathbb R^m_+b:Ω→R+m​ the right-hand side realized in each scenario, and Ib(Ω)={b(ω)∣ω∈Ω}I_b(\Omega)=\{b(\omega)\mid\omega\in\Omega\}Ib​(Ω)={b(ω)∣ω∈Ω} the uncertainty set. Let μ\muμ be a probability measure on Ω\OmegaΩ.

  • The stochastic problem ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b) (1.1) chooses x≥0x\ge 0x≥0 and a second-stage policy y(ω)≥0y(\omega)\ge 0y(ω)≥0 with Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω) for every ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omegaω∈Ω, minimizing cTx+Eμ[dTy(ω)]c^Tx+\mathbb E_\mu[d^Ty(\omega)]cTx+Eμ​[dTy(ω)]. Its optimal value is zStoch(b)z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)zStoch​(b).
  • The robust problem ΠRob(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)ΠRob​(b) (1.2) chooses a single pair x≥0x\ge 0x≥0, y≥0y\ge 0y≥0 with Ax+By≥b(ω)Ax+By\ge b(\omega)Ax+By≥b(ω) for every ω\omegaω, minimizing cTx+dTyc^Tx+d^TycTx+dTy. Its optimal value is zRob(b)z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)zRob​(b).

In general some coordinates of xxx and yyy are required to be integers; in this mission's instance there are none. A set P⊆RnP\subseteq\mathbb R^nP⊆Rn is symmetric (Definition 1.2) if some u0∈Pu^0\in Pu0∈P satisfies u0+z∈P  ⟺  u0−z∈Pu^0+z\in P\iff u^0-z\in Pu0+z∈P⟺u0−z∈P for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn.

The instance of Theorem 2.6 has no first stage (n1=0n_1=0n1​=0, so A=0A=0A=0, c=0c=0c=0), n2=m=n≥3n_2=m=n\ge 3n2​=m=n≥3, B=InB=I_nB=In​, and d=en=(0,…,0,1)d=e_n=(0,\dots,0,1)d=en​=(0,…,0,1). The uncertainty set is the corner simplex (2.29)

Ib(Ω)={ b∈Rn  :  ∑j=1nbj≤1, b≥0 },I_b(\Omega)=\Big\{\,b\in\mathbb R^n \;:\; \sum_{j=1}^n b_j\le 1,\ b\ge 0\,\Big\},Ib​(Ω)={b∈Rn:j=1∑n​bj​≤1, b≥0},

and μ\muμ is the uniform probability measure on it: μ(S)=volume⁡({b(ω)∣ω∈S})/volume⁡(Ib(Ω))\mu(S)=\operatorname{volume}(\{b(\omega)\mid\omega\in S\})/\operatorname{volume}(I_b(\Omega))μ(S)=volume({b(ω)∣ω∈S})/volume(Ib​(Ω)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.6

On this instance,

zRob(b) ≥ (n+1)⋅zStoch(b).z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\ \ge\ (n+1)\cdot z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b).zRob​(b) ≥ (n+1)⋅zStoch​(b).

The constant n+1n+1n+1 is the paper's, and it is exact: the robust optimum is 111 and the stochastic optimum is at most 1/(n+1)1/(n+1)1/(n+1).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.4. The corner simplex is not symmetric for n≥2n\ge 2n≥2.
  2. Robust side (p. 20). Every robust-feasible yyy has yj≥1y_j\ge 1yj​≥1 for all jjj, so zRob(b)≥1z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\ge 1zRob​(b)≥1.
  3. Eq. (2.30). The policy y^(ω)=b(ω)\hat y(\omega)=b(\omega)y^​(ω)=b(ω) is feasible for ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b), so zStoch(b)≤Eμ[bn(ω)]z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)\le\mathbb E_\mu[b_n(\omega)]zStoch​(b)≤Eμ​[bn​(ω)].
  4. Eq. (2.32), denominator. vol⁡(Ib(Ω))=1/n!\operatorname{vol}(I_b(\Omega))=1/n!vol(Ib​(Ω))=1/n!.
  5. Eq. (2.32), numerator. ∫Ib(Ω)xn dx=1/(n+1)!\int_{I_b(\Omega)}x_n\,dx=1/(n+1)!∫Ib​(Ω)​xn​dx=1/(n+1)!.
  6. Eqs. (2.31)–(2.32). Eμ[bn(ω)]=1/(n+1)\mathbb E_\mu[b_n(\omega)]=1/(n+1)Eμ​[bn​(ω)]=1/(n+1).

Significance

The result. Together with Theorem 2.1, Theorem 2.6 locates the boundary of the paper's positive theory. Theorem 2.1 says a static robust solution loses at most a factor of 222 against the fully adaptive stochastic optimum under symmetry; Theorem 2.6 says that without symmetry the factor can be n+1n+1n+1, hence arbitrarily large as the dimension grows. The paper's later results (the bound for "positive" uncertainty sets, Theorem 2.7) are motivated by this example: some structural condition replacing symmetry is necessary. The same instance also separates the adaptive problem from the stochastic one (p. 21), which shows that the gap comes from comparing a worst case with an expectation, not from the lack of adaptivity.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. The formalization adds two things beyond the paper. First, it pins down the problems as optimization problems over integrable policies with values in the extended reals, so that the inequality cannot hold for a degenerate reason. Second, it requires the volume of the corner simplex and the first moment of a coordinate on it, which the paper calls "standard computation". Neither is in Mathlib at the time of writing: Mathlib has the standard simplex as a convex set but no volume formula for it.

Difficulty

The optimization part is short: one feasible stochastic policy and the vertices of the simplex give both bounds. The work is in the measure theory. The volume 1/n!1/n!1/n! and the moment 1/(n+1)!1/(n+1)!1/(n+1)! are iterated integrals with variable upper limits, and the paper calls them "standard computation"; as statements about Lebesgue measure on Rn\mathbb R^nRn they are dimension-dependent identities that Mathlib does not contain, for the simplex or for the convex hull of n+1n+1n+1 points. The other technical point is the scenario model: the uniform measure lives on Ω\OmegaΩ, while the integrals live on Rn\mathbb R^nRn, so the expectation must be moved through the push-forward of μ\muμ by bbb.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin k → ℝ with the componentwise order; products are A *ᵥ x and c ⬝ᵥ x. The paper's nnn-th coordinate is index n−1n-1n−1 of Fin n, and ene_nen​ is lastUnit n.
  • The optimal values zRobz_{\mathrm{Rob}}zRob​ and zStochz_{\mathrm{Stoch}}zStoch​ are EReal infima over the feasible set, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when the problem is infeasible. No optimal solution is assumed to exist.
  • Policies of ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b) are μ\muμ-integrable functions Ω→Rn\Omega\to\mathbb R^nΩ→Rn (the paper takes their expectation), and the constraints hold for every scenario, as printed, not almost surely.
  • The integer coordinates are given as a set of indices; the instance uses the empty set (p2=0p_2=0p2​=0, as in the displays on p. 20). The generic definitions keep the mixed-integer domain so that they agree with the other missions of this series.
  • The uniform measure is encoded by quantifying over every scenario model (Ω,μ,b)(\Omega,\mu,b)(Ω,μ,b) in which μ\muμ is a probability measure, bbb is measurable, the range of bbb is the corner simplex, and the push-forward of μ\muμ by bbb equals Lebesgue measure restricted to the simplex divided by its volume. The model Ω=\Omega=Ω= simplex, b=b=b= identity satisfies these hypotheses; the paper's formula for μ(S)\mu(S)μ(S) is read as a statement about this push-forward.
  • The hypothesis n≥3n\ge 3n≥3 is the paper's and is kept; the argument appears to need only n≥1n\ge 1n≥1.
  • Ruled out: a real-valued infimum for zStochz_{\mathrm{Stoch}}zStoch​, which would be a junk 000 on an infeasible problem and make the goal trivially true; an arbitrary measure, or a Dirac mass at the mean, in place of the uniform measure; and constraints only μ\muμ-almost surely.

Needed infrastructure: the volume of the corner simplex in Rn\mathbb R^nRn and the integral of a coordinate over it (reusable well beyond this mission, for example for Dirichlet distributions and order statistics), and the change of variables from Ω\OmegaΩ to Rn\mathbb R^nRn through the push-forward. Contributions of either simplex integral, in any form that implies the stated milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power of robust solutions in two-stage stochastic and adaptive optimization problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2), 284–305, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0440 (formalized from the authors' manuscript, MIT DSpace / MIT Open Access Articles)
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1), 1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • D. Bertsimas, M. Sim, The price of robustness, Operations Research 52(1), 35–53, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0065
  • J. R. Birge, F. Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, 2nd ed., Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4
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Functional Analysis·Captain: moona3k

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constants: lower the cutoff to 87Open Problem

This completed entry lowers the sufficient exponent cutoff for the sharp diagonal Hlawka formula from 90 to 87. The goal is already proved in Lean on Prove2Me: for every real p ≥ 87, the foundation's cyclic constant K_p is the least constant that works for every triple of complex coordinate vectors in every finite dimension.

The statement includes arbitrary unequal-norm and zero triples, as well as dimension zero. It uses the foundation's unchanged definitions and combines admissibility with uniform optimality. This concerns complex diagonal matrices; it does not claim the corresponding result for general matrices or settle the conjecture for all p ≥ 2.

Proved goal and supporting result

  • Sharp complex coordinate Hlawka constant for p ≥ 87: the goal, already Proved.
  • The real coordinate Hlawka bound for p ≥ 87: the supporting milestone, already Proved.

The campaign template is instantiated with value 87. Both items reference the existing accepted theorems.

Proof route and attribution

The proof extends the accepted cutoff-90 Lean development by BrunoDCDO, adapting Ezzeri Esa's construction and analytic argument. The contributions at cutoffs 89, 88 and 87 were submitted by moona3k.

For p ≥ 88, the proof uses the accepted cutoff-88 result. On 87 ≤ p ≤ 88, it retains the localization, box-convexity and cyclic-averaging argument, with confinement parameter q₀ = 5351/15000, an improved cyclic witness (3/(4p))^(1/p), sharper Taylor estimates and exact rational polynomial certificates.

Campaign context

The foundation established cutoff 256; the supplied argument was formalized at cutoff 90. The subsequent accepted results extend the same formula to cutoffs 89, 88 and 87. This entry records the proved cutoff 87 on the campaign timeline; the campaign's cutoff-85 mission remains open.

  • Sharp diagonal Hlawka campaign
  • Foundation and proved cutoff 256
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Functional Analysis·Captain: savarin

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constants: lower the cutoff to 85Open Problem

The Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. The question is how large a comparison constant is needed to make this inequality hold.

This mission asks whether the best possible constant for complex diagonal matrices, already proved in Lean for every real p≥87p\ge87p≥87, also holds for every real p≥85p\ge85p≥85. This is an open problem: no proof is known. The constant is the one from the foundation mission: the largest comparison constant required by the cyclic family of three 3×33\times33×3 diagonal matrices. Because the accepted cutoff-87 theorem already covers every p≥87p\ge87p≥87, the new work is the range from 85 to 87.

The cutoff came down from 90 to 87 in a day, through moona3k's proofs at 89, 88 and 87. The 89 proof reran the cutoff-90 argument with sharper, second-order estimates. A numerical model of that argument with retuned constants puts its limit between about 86.6 and 87.5: two of its steps pull the same parameter in opposite directions, and below that point no setting satisfies both. So reaching 85 is expected to need a new idea, not just tighter numbers. The goal theorem below gives the exact statement.

This is an entry in the sharp diagonal Hlawka campaign, which asks for the smallest cutoff at which the same formula holds. Any proof for a cutoff of 85 or lower also settles this mission.

The broader question of optimal constants for Schatten norms appears in Audenaert and Kittaneh’s Problem 7. Extending the sharp diagonal constant to general matrices is a separate challenge.

References

  • K. M. R. Audenaert and F. Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, arXiv preprint, 2012, §8.2, Problem 7. arXiv:1201.5232
  • Ezzeri Esa, Hlawka–Schatten inequalities: sharp diagonal construction, Lean source repository, 2026, revision 79aa498bfcf7b22bd91d771fb32ec278e2d4704b. Source library
  • Ezzeri Esa and project contributors, The cyclic bound for every real p ≥ 90, research note with appendices and exact certificates, 2026. Research note

Established results on Prove2Me

  • The accepted sharp diagonal bound for every real p ≥ 87.
  • The accepted real coordinate bound for every real p ≥ 87.
  • The accepted diagonal Schatten norm identity.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 3: With Fully-Captured Nests, the Nested-by-Revenue LP Optimum Scaled by the Factor (6) Is Feasible for the Full LPResearch Paper

Motivation

Assortment optimization asks a retailer which products to offer when customers substitute among them. The nested logit model groups products into nests and is one of the most used choice models in revenue management, because it relaxes the independence of irrelevant alternatives of the plain multinomial logit model while keeping choice probabilities in closed form. Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Oper. Res. 62(2), 2014) study how the tractability of the assortment problem under this model depends on two features: whether the dissimilarity parameters of the nests are at most one, and whether a customer who selects a nest always buys there (fully-captured nests).

When the dissimilarity parameters are at most one and the nests are fully captured, offering the jjj highest-revenue products in every nest is optimal (Theorem 4 of the paper). This mission concerns what survives when a dissimilarity parameter exceeds one, the regime the paper calls possibly synergistic products. Then the problem is NP-hard (Theorem 5), and the paper shows that the same nested-by-revenue assortments still achieve an explicit, data-dependent fraction of the optimal expected revenue.

Setting

There are nests i∈Mi \in Mi∈M and products j∈N={1,…,n}j \in N = \{1, \dots, n\}j∈N={1,…,n} in every nest. Product jjj of nest iii has a revenue rijr_{ij}rij​ and a preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, ordered so that ri1≥ri2≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge r_{i2} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥ri2​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii has a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0, and v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0 is the weight of leaving without choosing a nest. Throughout this mission the nests are fully captured: the within-nest no-purchase weights vi0v_{i0}vi0​ are zero. For an assortment Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N in nest iii,

Vi(Si)=∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0,V_i(S_i) = \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j \in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)}, \quad R_i(\emptyset) = 0,Vi​(Si​)=j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0,

and the expected revenue of (S1,…,Sm)(S_1, \dots, S_m)(S1​,…,Sm​) is

Π(S1,…,Sm)=∑i∈MVi(Si)γiRi(Si)v0+∑i∈MVi(Si)γi.\Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m) = \frac{\sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} R_i(S_i)}{v_0 + \sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}}.Π(S1​,…,Sm​)=v0​+∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​Ri​(Si​)​.

Problem (2) maximizes Π\PiΠ; its optimal value is Z∗Z^*Z∗. The nested-by-revenue assortment Nij={1,…,j}N_{ij} = \{1, \dots, j\}Nij​={1,…,j} collects the jjj highest-revenue products of nest iii, with Ni0=∅N_{i0} = \emptysetNi0​=∅ and N+={0,1,…,n}N_+ = \{0, 1, \dots, n\}N+​={0,1,…,n}.

Problem (2) is equivalent to the linear program (3): minimize xxx subject to v0x≥∑iyiv_0 x \ge \sum_i y_iv0​x≥∑i​yi​ and yi≥Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)y_i \ge V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}(R_i(S_i) - x)yi​≥Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x) for every nest iii and every Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N. Problem (4) keeps the second family of constraints only for candidate assortments; here the candidates are {Nij:j∈N+}\{N_{ij} : j \in N_+\}{Nij​:j∈N+​}, which gives a linear program with 1+m1 + m1+m variables and 1+m(1+n)1 + m(1 + n)1+m(1+n) constraints. The performance factor of the nested-by-revenue assortments is

α=max⁡i∈M, j=2,…,n{Ri(Ni,j−1)Ri(Nij)∧(Ri(Nij)Ri(Ni,j−1) Vi(Nij)γiVi(Ni,j−1)γi)},a∧b=min⁡{a,b}.(6)\alpha = \max_{i \in M,\ j = 2, \dots, n} \left\{ \frac{R_i(N_{i,j-1})}{R_i(N_{ij})} \wedge \left(\frac{R_i(N_{ij})}{R_i(N_{i,j-1})}\, \frac{V_i(N_{ij})^{\gamma_i}}{V_i(N_{i,j-1})^{\gamma_i}}\right) \right\}, \qquad a \wedge b = \min\{a, b\}. \tag{6}α=i∈M, j=2,…,nmax​{Ri​(Nij​)Ri​(Ni,j−1​)​∧(Ri​(Ni,j−1​)Ri​(Nij​)​Vi​(Ni,j−1​)γi​Vi​(Nij​)γi​​)},a∧b=min{a,b}.(6)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

Assume vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0 for every nest, γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 for some nest, positive revenues and n≥2n \ge 2n≥2. If (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) is an optimal solution of (4) over the nested-by-revenue assortments, then

(αx^,αy^) is feasible for (3).(\alpha \hat x, \alpha \hat y) \ \text{is feasible for (3)}.(αx^,αy^​) is feasible for (3).

Combined with Theorem 1 of the paper this yields Z∗≤α Π(S^)Z^* \le \alpha\, \Pi(\hat S)Z∗≤αΠ(S^) for the assortment S^\hat SS^ read off the small linear program; that consequence is a companion item.

Milestones

  1. Problem (3) is a relaxation of the fractional problem (7), in which yiy_iyi​ dominates (∑jvijzij)γi[∑jrijvijzij/∑jvijzij−x]\big(\sum_j v_{ij} z_{ij}\big)^{\gamma_i}\big[\sum_j r_{ij} v_{ij} z_{ij} / \sum_j v_{ij} z_{ij} - x\big](∑j​vij​zij​)γi​[∑j​rij​vij​zij​/∑j​vij​zij​−x] for all zi∈[0,1]nz_i \in [0,1]^nzi​∈[0,1]n.
  2. Lemma 6: the inner maximization (8) of (7) has a solution of the form zi1=⋯=zi,k−1=1z_{i1} = \dots = z_{i,k-1} = 1zi1​=⋯=zi,k−1​=1, zik∈[0,1]z_{ik} \in [0,1]zik​∈[0,1], zi,k+1=⋯=zin=0z_{i,k+1} = \dots = z_{in} = 0zi,k+1​=⋯=zin​=0.
  3. y^i≥0\hat y_i \ge 0y^​i​≥0 and x^≥0\hat x \ge 0x^≥0.
  4. The inequalities (20) and (22) with the coefficients αik1=Ri(Ni,k−1)/Ri(Nik)\alpha^1_{ik} = R_i(N_{i,k-1})/R_i(N_{ik})αik1​=Ri​(Ni,k−1​)/Ri​(Nik​) and 1∨αik21 \vee \alpha^2_{ik}1∨αik2​.
  5. Ri(Nij)≤Ri(Ni,j−1)R_i(N_{ij}) \le R_i(N_{i,j-1})Ri​(Nij​)≤Ri​(Ni,j−1​), and Lemma 14: α≥1\alpha \ge 1α≥1 when some γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1.
  6. The inequalities (24) and (25): αy^i\alpha \hat y_iαy^​i​ dominates the objective of (8) at αx^\alpha \hat xαx^ for every vector of Lemma 6's shape.

Two companion statements follow the goal: the bounds α≤ρ\alpha \le \rhoα≤ρ and α≤2κ\alpha \le 2\kappaα≤2κ when revenues, respectively preference weights, within each nest differ by at most the factors ρ\rhoρ, κ\kappaκ; and the guarantee Z∗≤α Π(S^)Z^* \le \alpha\, \Pi(\hat S)Z∗≤αΠ(S^).

Significance

Because problem (2) is NP-hard once a dissimilarity parameter exceeds one (Theorem 5 of the paper), an exact polynomial algorithm is not expected, and a guarantee for a polynomial-size candidate family is the natural substitute. Theorem 7 gives one with an explicit factor computed from the data: α≤ρ\alpha \le \rhoα≤ρ when revenues within each nest are balanced, α≤2κ\alpha \le 2\kappaα≤2κ when preference weights within each nest are balanced, and the nests may differ arbitrarily from one another. The same linear-programming argument (Theorem 1) is reused for partially-captured nests in §6 of the paper.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix A.1); no machine-checked version is known. A formalization verifies an appendix argument that is stated with little detail, and fixes the conventions that the page leaves implicit, such as the value of the objective of (8) at zi=0z_i = 0zi​=0 and the role of the standing assumption that some γi\gamma_iγi​ exceeds one.

Difficulty

Theorem 7 is a feasibility statement for the exponentially many constraints of (3), one per subset of every nest, while optimality of (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) only controls the n+1n + 1n+1 nested-by-revenue constraints per nest. The obvious approach, comparing each subset directly with a nested-by-revenue assortment, fails: when γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 the nested-by-revenue assortments are not optimal within a nest, and the example of §4.1 shows that they can lose an unbounded factor. The constant α\alphaα must absorb the gap between a fractional assortment and its two neighbouring nested-by-revenue assortments, which the dual-style solution (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) of the small program does not see.

Formalization scope

Lean 4 with Mathlib. Nests form a finite type ι; products are Fin n, indexed from 000, so NijN_{ij}Nij​ is nbr n j = {k | k < j} and product kkk of the page is ⟨k - 1, _⟩. Powers are real powers (Real.rpow), and division is total (x/0=0x / 0 = 0x/0=0), which gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0 and value 000 for the objective of (8) at zi=0z_i = 0zi​=0.

Standing assumptions in every statement: v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0, vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0, γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0, revenues ordered within each nest (§1); vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0 for every nest and γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 for some nest (§4, p. 16). Added and disclosed: rij>0r_{ij} > 0rij​>0 wherever (6) appears, so that no denominator of (6) vanishes; n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, the nonempty range of (6); v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0 only in the guarantee Z∗≤α Π(S^)Z^* \le \alpha\,\Pi(\hat S)Z∗≤αΠ(S^), inherited from Theorem 1. The factor α\alphaα enters as a real number with the hypothesis that it is the greatest element of the set of terms of (6). An optimal solution of (4) is a feasible pair whose xxx is minimal among feasible pairs.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: α\alphaα is the maximum of (6), not an arbitrary upper bound, and the goal states feasibility for the full program (3) over every subset of every nest, not for (7) or for the candidate collection.

Needed infrastructure: maximization of a continuous function on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n, the greedy solution of a continuous knapsack, monotonicity of weighted averages and elementary real-power calculus. These are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, of the companions, and of the §4.1 example are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256 (formalized from the revised manuscript of June 18, 2013).
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, Revenue management under a general discrete choice model of consumer behavior, Management Science 50(1), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems 2: Worst-Case Distribution with Largest Covariance for Piecewise-Linear PortfoliosResearch Paper

Motivation

A portfolio manager who maximizes expected utility needs the distribution of asset returns, but in practice only estimates of its first two moments are available, and these estimates are themselves noisy. Distributionally robust optimization handles this by optimizing against the worst distribution in a set of plausible ones. Delage and Ye (Operations Research 58(3), 2010) proposed a set of distributions defined by confidence bounds on the mean and on the second-moment matrix, showed that the resulting problems are solvable in polynomial time for a large class of costs, and applied the framework to portfolio selection.

The set contains an upper bound on the covariance but no lower bound. Remark 1 of the paper says a lower bound "leads to important computational difficulties" and argues it should be unnecessary: for a concave utility, a less predictable market can only reduce expected utility, so the worst distribution should already have the largest covariance allowed. Proposition 3 in §5.2 turns this argument into a theorem for piecewise-linear concave utilities and unconstrained support. This mission formalizes Proposition 3 and the steps of its proof.

Setting

Let nnn assets have a random return vector ξ∈Rn\xi\in\mathbb R^nξ∈Rn, and let x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn be a portfolio, so the return is ξTx\xi^{\mathsf T}xξTx. A distribution of ξ\xiξ is a Borel probability measure on Rn\mathbb R^nRn with finite second moments. For symmetric matrices, A⪯BA\preceq BA⪯B (the Loewner order) means B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite.

Given a support set SSS, a centre μ0\mu_0μ0​, a positive definite matrix Σ0≻0\Sigma_0\succ0Σ0​≻0 and γ1≥0\gamma_1\ge0γ1​≥0, γ2>0\gamma_2>0γ2​>0, the distributional set of Assumption 3 is

D1(S,μ0,Σ0,γ1,γ2)={P : P(ξ∈S)=1, (E[ξ]−μ0)TΣ0−1(E[ξ]−μ0)≤γ1, E[(ξ−μ0)(ξ−μ0)T]⪯γ2Σ0}.\mathcal D_1(S,\mu_0,\Sigma_0,\gamma_1,\gamma_2)=\Big\{P\ :\ P(\xi\in S)=1,\ (\mathbb E[\xi]-\mu_0)^{\mathsf T}\Sigma_0^{-1}(\mathbb E[\xi]-\mu_0)\le\gamma_1,\ \mathbb E[(\xi-\mu_0)(\xi-\mu_0)^{\mathsf T}]\preceq\gamma_2\Sigma_0\Big\}.D1​(S,μ0​,Σ0​,γ1​,γ2​)={P : P(ξ∈S)=1, (E[ξ]−μ0​)TΣ0−1​(E[ξ]−μ0​)≤γ1​, E[(ξ−μ0​)(ξ−μ0​)T]⪯γ2​Σ0​}.

The second constraint, (1b), is the covariance constraint.

The utility is piecewise linear concave, u(y)=min⁡k∈{1,…,K}aky+bku(y)=\min_{k\in\{1,\dots,K\}}a_ky+b_ku(y)=mink∈{1,…,K}​ak​y+bk​ with K≥1K\ge1K≥1 pieces, and the cost of a return is −u-u−u:

h(x,ξ)=max⁡k (−ak ξTx−bk).h(x,\xi)=\max_{k}\ \big(-a_k\,\xi^{\mathsf T}x-b_k\big).h(x,ξ)=kmax​ (−ak​ξTx−bk​).

With estimates μ^\hat\muμ^​, Σ^≻0\hat\Sigma\succ0Σ^≻0 of the mean and covariance, the inner problem of the robust portfolio problem with unconstrained support and an exactly known mean (γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0) is

max⁡P∈D1(Rn,μ^,Σ^,0,γ2) EP[h(x,ξ)].(18)\max_{P\in\mathcal D_1(\mathbb R^n,\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,0,\gamma_2)}\ \mathbb E_P\big[h(x,\xi)\big].\tag{18}P∈D1​(Rn,μ^​,Σ^,0,γ2​)max​ EP​[h(x,ξ)].(18)

The proof relates (18) to a semidefinite program in variables Λk∈Rn×n\Lambda_k\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}Λk​∈Rn×n, λk∈Rn\lambda_k\in\mathbb R^nλk​∈Rn, νk∈R\nu_k\in\mathbb Rνk​∈R:

max⁡ ∑k(−ak xTλk−bkνk)s.t.∑kΛk⪯γ2Σ^+μ^μ^T,  ∑kλk=μ^,  ∑kνk=1,  [ΛkλkλkTνk]⪰0.(19)\max\ \sum_k\big(-a_k\,x^{\mathsf T}\lambda_k-b_k\nu_k\big)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_k\Lambda_k\preceq\gamma_2\hat\Sigma+\hat\mu\hat\mu^{\mathsf T},\ \ \sum_k\lambda_k=\hat\mu,\ \ \sum_k\nu_k=1,\ \ \begin{bmatrix}\Lambda_k&\lambda_k\\\lambda_k^{\mathsf T}&\nu_k\end{bmatrix}\succeq0.\tag{19}max k∑​(−ak​xTλk​−bk​νk​)s.t.k∑​Λk​⪯γ2​Σ^+μ^​μ^​T,  k∑​λk​=μ^​,  k∑​νk​=1,  [Λk​λkT​​λk​νk​​]⪰0.(19)

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

For every γ1≥0\gamma_1\ge0γ1​≥0 (the mean-uncertainty radius of the robust portfolio problem (16); (18) is the case γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0),

∃ P∗∈D1(Rn,μ^,Σ^,γ1,γ2):EP∗[(ξ−μ^)(ξ−μ^)T]=γ2Σ^andEQ[h(x,ξ)]≤EP∗[h(x,ξ)]  ∀ Q∈D1(Rn,μ^,Σ^,γ1,γ2).\exists\,P^*\in\mathcal D_1(\mathbb R^n,\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\gamma_1,\gamma_2):\quad \mathbb E_{P^*}\big[(\xi-\hat\mu)(\xi-\hat\mu)^{\mathsf T}\big]=\gamma_2\hat\Sigma\quad\text{and}\quad \mathbb E_Q[h(x,\xi)]\le\mathbb E_{P^*}[h(x,\xi)]\ \ \forall\,Q\in\mathcal D_1(\mathbb R^n,\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\gamma_1,\gamma_2).∃P∗∈D1​(Rn,μ^​,Σ^,γ1​,γ2​):EP∗​[(ξ−μ^​)(ξ−μ^​)T]=γ2​Σ^andEQ​[h(x,ξ)]≤EP∗​[h(x,ξ)]  ∀Q∈D1​(Rn,μ^​,Σ^,γ1​,γ2​).

The worst-case expectation is attained, and at a distribution for which the covariance constraint holds with equality. The statement holds for every portfolio xxx, every K≥1K\ge1K≥1, every a,ba,ba,b, every μ^\hat\muμ^​, every Σ^≻0\hat\Sigma\succ0Σ^≻0, every γ1≥0\gamma_1\ge0γ1​≥0 and every γ2>0\gamma_2>0γ2​>0.

Milestones

  1. Every value of (18) is dominated by the value of a feasible point of (19).
  2. (19) has an optimal solution at which ∑kΛk=γ2Σ^+μ^μ^T\sum_k\Lambda_k=\gamma_2\hat\Sigma+\hat\mu\hat\mu^{\mathsf T}∑k​Λk​=γ2​Σ^+μ^​μ^​T.
  3. If [ΛλλTν]⪰0\begin{bmatrix}\Lambda&\lambda\\\lambda^{\mathsf T}&\nu\end{bmatrix}\succeq0[ΛλT​λν​]⪰0 and ν>0\nu>0ν>0, a random vector with mean λ/ν\lambda/\nuλ/ν and second moment Λ/ν\Lambda/\nuΛ/ν exists.
  4. The mixture ∑kνkPk\sum_k\nu_kP_k∑k​νk​Pk​ of such vectors, built from a tight feasible point with all νk>0\nu_k>0νk​>0, lies in D1\mathcal D_1D1​ and has second moment γ2Σ^\gamma_2\hat\Sigmaγ2​Σ^ about μ^\hat\muμ^​.
  5. The expected cost under that mixture is at least the objective value of (19) at the point.
  6. (18) and (19) have the same attained optimal value.

Significance

The proposition justifies a modelling decision of the whole paper: for portfolio problems with piecewise-linear concave utility, adding a lower bound γ3Σ0⪯E[(ξ−μ0)(ξ−μ0)T]\gamma_3\Sigma_0\preceq\mathbb E[(\xi-\mu_0)(\xi-\mu_0)^{\mathsf T}]γ3​Σ0​⪯E[(ξ−μ0​)(ξ−μ0​)T] (display (2)) to the distributional set cannot change the robust decision, so the computational difficulty that lower bound would cause is avoided at no loss. It also shows that, under these assumptions and with γ2=1\gamma_2=1γ2​=1, the paper's semidefinite formulation solves the known-moment portfolio problem of Popescu (2007) in polynomial time (Remark 4). The worst case is explicit: a finite mixture of distributions with prescribed first and second moments, read off an optimal solution of (19).

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known. Formalizing it requires a moment-problem argument (from a distribution to a feasible point of an SDP) and its converse (from an SDP solution to a distribution), both of which are reusable for other moment-based distributionally robust results. The proposition concerns the robust portfolio problem with D1(Rn,μ^,Σ^,γ1,γ2)\mathcal D_1(\mathbb R^n,\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\gamma_1,\gamma_2)D1​(Rn,μ^​,Σ^,γ1​,γ2​); the paper's proof writes out only γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0 "for simplicity of our derivations". The goal states the proposition for every γ1≥0\gamma_1\ge0γ1​≥0; the milestones follow the written proof and are stated for γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "a concave utility prefers less spread, so the adversary maximizes spread", does not prove anything by itself: increasing the second-moment matrix of a given distribution in the Loewner order does not determine its law, and the expected cost depends on the whole law, not on the moments. The proof goes through the semidefinite program (19). Two steps carry the weight. First, every distribution in D1\mathcal D_1D1​ must be mapped to a feasible point of (19) with no smaller value, although the cost is only piecewise affine in ξ\xiξ. Second, an optimal point of (19) must be turned back into a distribution in D1\mathcal D_1D1​; this needs the existence of random vectors with prescribed first and second moments, and care with blocks where νk=0\nu_k=0νk​=0, which the paper sets aside "without loss of generality" although such a block can carry a nonzero Λk\Lambda_kΛk​ that the mixture would lose.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin n → ℝ; all Euclidean quantities are dot products, never the sup norm. Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ; A⪯BA\preceq BA⪯B is (B - A).PosSemidef; Σ0−1\Sigma_0^{-1}Σ0−1​ is Mathlib's matrix inverse, used only with Σ0≻0\Sigma_0\succ0Σ0​≻0.
  • A distribution is a Measure (Fin n → ℝ) that is a probability measure and whose coordinates are in L2L^2L2 (MemLp _ 2). This makes every mean, second moment and expected cost a genuine integral; without it a non-integrable expectation would evaluate to 000.
  • P(ξ∈S)=1P(\xi\in S)=1P(ξ∈S)=1 is an almost-everywhere statement; the goal uses S=RnS=\mathbb R^nS=Rn ("infinite support constraint"). The convexity of SSS, μ0∈int⁡S\mu_0\in\operatorname{int}Sμ0​∈intS and the separation oracle of Assumption 3 concern the paper's algorithms and are not part of the set.
  • The maximum of (18) is never a real supremum: the goal asserts a maximizer that dominates every member of the set. The cost uses a finite maximum over K≥1K\ge1K≥1 pieces ([NeZero K]).
  • Standing hypotheses: Σ^≻0\hat\Sigma\succ0Σ^≻0 (Assumption 3's Σ0≻0\Sigma_0\succ0Σ0​≻0, and endnote 1), γ2>0\gamma_2>0γ2​>0 (§3), γ1≥0\gamma_1\ge0γ1​≥0 (Assumption 3) in the goal; the milestones fix γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0 as the proof does. The portfolio xxx ranges over all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn; the simplex constraint (16b) plays no role in the inner problem, so dropping it only strengthens the statements.
  • The objective of (19) has the sign of the proof's final computation (p. 21), ∑k(−akxTλk−bkνk)\sum_k(-a_kx^{\mathsf T}\lambda_k-b_k\nu_k)∑k​(−ak​xTλk​−bk​νk​); display (19a) on p. 19 prints the opposite signs, a misprint.
  • Ruling out trivial readings: the goal requires both membership in D1\mathcal D_1D1​ with tight covariance and domination of every member of D1\mathcal D_1D1​. A distribution with covariance γ2Σ^\gamma_2\hat\Sigmaγ2​Σ^ alone, or a maximizer alone, would not suffice. The goal does not claim that every maximizer is tight; for K=1K=1K=1 the cost is linear and every member of D1\mathcal D_1D1​ is a maximizer.
  • Infrastructure needed: existence of distributions with prescribed mean and covariance (for instance multivariate Gaussians, or degenerate laws on a subspace), finite mixtures of measures and their moments, Schur complements of positive semidefinite block matrices, and compactness of the feasible set of (19). Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome.

The source is the authors' draft of 20 February 2008 of the Operations Research paper; every page, display and label in this mission refers to that draft.

Selected references

  • E. Delage and Y. Ye, Distributionally robust optimization under moment uncertainty with application to data-driven problems, Operations Research 58(3):595–612, 2010 (authors' draft of 20 February 2008 used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0741
  • I. Popescu, Robust mean-covariance solutions for stochastic optimization, Operations Research 55(1):98–112, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1060.0353
  • Y. Nesterov and A. Nemirovski, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970791
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Denumerable State Markovian Decision Processes—Average Cost Criterion: Every Limit Point of Policy Improvement Is a Deterministic Stationary Rule That Is Optimal over All RulesResearch Paper

Motivation

Markovian decision processes with the long-run average cost criterion model systems run indefinitely: inventories, queues, maintenance schedules, communication links. For a finite state space the theory was settled by the early 1960s. Howard's policy improvement (policy iteration) procedure (1960) finds an optimal stationary rule in finitely many steps, and Gillette (1957) and Derman (1962) showed that a stationary deterministic rule is optimal over all rules, history-dependent and randomized included (Derman 1962).

Many models of interest, such as queues with unbounded buffers and inventories with unbounded backlog, have a denumerable state space, and there the finite theory breaks down. Derman's paper (Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 1545–1553) gives two counterexamples in §2, both under bounded costs and finitely many decisions per state. In the first, due to Maitra, no optimal rule exists. In the second, a randomized stationary rule beats every deterministic one. It then gives sufficient conditions under which a stationary deterministic optimal rule exists and policy improvement finds it.

Timeline:

  • 1960: Howard introduces policy iteration for finite average-cost problems.
  • 1962: Derman proves that deterministic stationary rules are optimal for finite state spaces; Blackwell develops the finite discounted and near-discount theory.
  • 1963–1965: Iglehart (inventory) and Taylor (replacement) treat the average cost criterion in special infinite-state models; Derman's §3 proof follows part of Iglehart's argument.
  • 1964–1965: Blackwell, Maitra, Strauch and Derman (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 1965) treat infinite state spaces under the discounted criterion, where with Ki<∞K_i < \inftyKi​<∞ and bounded costs an optimal rule of C′′C''C′′ always exists.
  • 1966: Derman (this paper) gives the bounded-solution verification theorem and the convergence of policy improvement on a denumerable state space.
  • 1967 onward: Derman and Veinott (announced in §5 of this paper), and later Ross, Sennott, and Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (1993), give conditions for the existence of solutions of the optimality equation.

Setting

The system is observed at times t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… in a state YtY_tYt​ of a denumerable set III. At state iii one of Ki<∞K_i < \inftyKi​<∞ decisions kkk is made (condition (A)). It costs wikw_{ik}wik​, and the next state is jjj with probability qij(k)q_{ij}(k)qij​(k). The costs are bounded (condition (B)) and may have either sign. A rule RRR chooses the decision at each time with probabilities that may depend on the whole history. The class of all rules is CCC, and C′′C''C′′ is the class of stationary deterministic rules ("make decision kik_iki​ at state iii"). The average cost of RRR from Y0=iY_0 = iY0​=i is

QR(i)=lim sup⁡T→∞1T+1∑t=0TERWt,Wt=wYtΔt.Q_R(i) = \limsup_{T\to\infty} \frac{1}{T+1}\sum_{t=0}^{T} E_R W_t, \qquad W_t = w_{Y_t \Delta_t}.QR​(i)=T→∞limsup​T+11​t=0∑T​ER​Wt​,Wt​=wYt​Δt​​.

A rule is optimal over CCC if QR(i)≤QR′(i)Q_R(i) \le Q_{R'}(i)QR​(i)≤QR′​(i) for every R′∈CR' \in CR′∈C and every iii.

The optimality equation (1) asks for a number ggg and a bounded {vj}\{v_j\}{vj​} with

g+vi=min⁡k{wik+∑j∈Iqij(k)vj},i∈I,g + v_i = \min_k \Big\{w_{ik} + \sum_{j\in I} q_{ij}(k) v_j\Big\}, \qquad i \in I,g+vi​=kmin​{wik​+j∈I∑​qij​(k)vj​},i∈I,

and equation (2) is its version for one rule R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′, with kik_iki​ in place of the minimum. Condition (C): every R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′ induces an irreducible Markov chain all of whose states are positive recurrent. Condition (E): every R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′ has a solution {gR,vjR}\{g^R, v^R_j\}{gR,vjR​} of (2), bounded uniformly in jjj and RRR. Condition (F): for every jjj the Cesàro limits πij(R)\pi_{ij}(R)πij​(R) of P{Yt=j∣Y0=i}P\{Y_t = j \mid Y_0 = i\}P{Yt​=j∣Y0​=i} satisfy inf⁡R∈C′′,i∈Iπij(R)>0\inf_{R\in C'', i \in I} \pi_{ij}(R) > 0infR∈C′′,i∈I​πij​(R)>0. One policy improvement iteration replaces RRR by a rule R′R'R′ whose decisions minimize wik+∑jqij(k)vjRw_{ik} + \sum_j q_{ij}(k) v_j^Rwik​+∑j​qij​(k)vjR​ at every state.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

Under (A), (B), (C), (E) and (F), let R1,R2,…R_1, R_2, \dotsR1​,R2​,… be any sequence of policy improvement iterations from an arbitrary R1∈C′′R_1 \in C''R1​∈C′′. Then the sequence has a limit point R∗∈C′′R^* \in C''R∗∈C′′, and every limit point satisfies

QR∗(i)≤QR(i)for all R∈C, i∈I,Q_{R^*}(i) \le Q_R(i) \qquad \text{for all } R \in C,\ i \in I,QR∗​(i)≤QR​(i)for all R∈C, i∈I,

with gRn→QR∗(i)g^{R_n} \to Q_{R^*}(i)gRn​→QR∗​(i).

Milestones

  • Display (4): a rule of C′′C''C′′ solving (2) with bounded vvv has QR≡gQ_R \equiv gQR​≡g, the limit existing.
  • Display (6): a bounded solution of (1) gives ∣gn(i)−ng−vi∣≤M|g_n(i) - ng - v_i| \le M∣gn​(i)−ng−vi​∣≤M for the value iteration gng_ngn​ of (5).
  • §3: gn(i)g_n(i)gn​(i) is the least expected cost over the periods 0,…,n0, \dots, n0,…,n among all rules.
  • Theorem 1: a bounded solution of (1) makes every minimizing rule R∗∈C′′R^* \in C''R∗∈C′′ optimal over CCC, with QR∗≡gQ_{R^*} \equiv gQR∗​≡g.
  • Lemma 1 and the remark after it: a strict improvement at a nonempty set of states lowers QQQ at every initial state, by exactly ∑iπiεi\sum_i \pi_i \varepsilon_i∑i​πi​εi​.
  • Theorems 2 and 3: under (C), optimality over C′′C''C′′ implies optimality over CCC; under (C) and (E), an optimal rule of C′′C''C′′ exists.
  • Lemma 2: along policy improvement the gaps εiRn\varepsilon_i^{R_n}εiRn​​ tend to 000 at every state.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the countable-state verification theorem. It is the template for all later average-cost theory on infinite state spaces, which replaces boundedness of vvv by growth or Lyapunov conditions. Theorem 4 extends policy improvement, the standard algorithm for finite average-cost problems, to denumerable state spaces, under conditions that do not reduce the problem to a finite one.

Derman proved these results in 1966. None of them has been machine-checked: the platform has finite-state average-cost policy iteration and finite-state verification theorems, but no countable-state result of this kind. A formal development checks the analytic steps that the paper treats briefly. These are the interchange of limits and infinite sums in (3), (9) and (11), and the identification of the Cesàro limits of a positive recurrent chain with its steady-state probabilities.

Difficulty

On a finite state space, policy improvement terminates because there are finitely many rules and the average cost strictly decreases. On a denumerable state space C′′C''C′′ is uncountable, so neither step works. The sequence need not terminate. With ties in the minimization it need not converge either. A strict decrease of gRng^{R_n}gRn​ does not force the gaps to vanish. That needs (F), a uniform positive lower bound on the long-run occupation of each state. Passing to the limit in (2) along a subsequence requires a limit interchange in an infinite sum, which works only because {vR}\{v^R\}{vR} is uniformly bounded. Finally, comparing with history-dependent randomized rules needs the finite-horizon argument behind (6). A stationary-rule comparison is not enough.

Formalization scope

The model is the published Markov decision chain SennottDP.AvgFinite.MDC: a countable state type, a finite nonempty Finset of decisions at each state (so (A) is built in), and transition probabilities in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] summing to one. History-dependent randomized rules are Policy M, and C′′C''C′′ is StationaryPolicy M. The chain notions (irreducibility, positive recurrence, steady state 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​) come from the published SennottDP.MarkovCost.Chain. The conventions are as follows.

  • Costs are a separate signed function w with (B). The nonnegative cost field of MDC is unused, and w≥0w \ge 0w≥0 is not assumed.
  • ERWtE_R W_tER​Wt​ is the genuine expectation against the history law, and QRQ_RQR​ is the real limsup with the paper's normalization (T+1)−1(T+1)^{-1}(T+1)−1.
  • Every use of (1) or (2) assumes vvv bounded, so the series ∑jqij(k)vj\sum_j q_{ij}(k) v_j∑j​qij​(k)vj​ converge absolutely. The bound is part of the paper's hypotheses: without it Theorem 1 is false on infinite III.
  • (E) is an explicit family gR,vRg^R, v^RgR,vR, and the improvement step is taken against it, with arbitrary tie-breaking. (D) follows from (E) and is not a separate hypothesis.
  • (F) is stated with Cesàro limits. That they equal the steady-state probabilities under (C) is a proof obligation.
  • "Converges" in Theorem 4 is read as: a limit point exists, and every limit point is optimal over CCC. Whole-sequence convergence is not claimed, because the paper's proof does not establish it.
  • Sequences are indexed from 000.

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out: optimality is over all history-dependent randomized rules, never only over C′′C''C′′, and QRQ_RQR​ is computed from the process law, never defined through (2).

A complete development needs Cesàro convergence of ttt-step probabilities to 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​ for positive recurrent chains, dominated convergence for bounded functions against stochastic kernels, the finite-horizon dynamic programming principle for history-dependent rules, and a diagonal (Tychonoff) argument in ∏i{1,…,Ki}\prod_i \{1,\dots,K_i\}∏i​{1,…,Ki​}. The first and third are reusable well beyond this paper. Contributions of these lemmas as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Derman, Denumerable State Markovian Decision Processes—Average Cost Criterion, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(6) (1966) 1545–1553. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699146
  • C. Derman, On Sequential Decisions and Markov Chains, Management Sci. 9(1) (1962) 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.16
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Wiley, New York, 1960.
  • D. L. Iglehart, Dynamic programming and stationary analysis of inventory problems, Ch. 1 of Multistage Inventory Models and Techniques (H. Scarf, D. Gilford, M. Shelly, eds.), Stanford Univ. Press, 1963.
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, Springer, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-49686-8
  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993) 282–344. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
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Approximation Algorithms for Precedence-Constrained Scheduling Problems on Parallel Machines That Run at Different Speeds: A min{K + 2√K + 1, 1.89 log m + O(√log m)}-Approximation for Q|prec|CmaxResearch Paper

Scheduling precedence-constrained jobs on machines of different speeds

Graham (1966) showed that list scheduling finds a schedule within a factor 222 of optimal for precedence-constrained jobs on identical parallel machines, the first performance guarantee for an approximation algorithm. When the machines run at different speeds (uniformly related machines), the same analysis breaks down, and for two decades the problem Q∣prec∣Cmax⁡Q|prec|C_{\max}Q∣prec∣Cmax​ resisted a guarantee independent of the speeds better than O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​).

Timeline:

  • 1974, Liu and Liu: list scheduling on machines of different speeds, with a guarantee that depends on the speeds and can be arbitrarily large even for a fixed number of machines.
  • 1980, Jaffe: list scheduling on the machines whose speed is within a factor m\sqrt mm​ of the fastest gives an O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​)-approximation.
  • 1978, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan: with precedence constraints, no ρ\rhoρ-approximation with ρ<4/3\rho < 4/3ρ<4/3 exists unless P = NP. This bound already holds for identical machines.
  • 1997–1999, Chudak and Shmoys: an LP-guided variant of list scheduling achieves O(log⁡m)O(\log m)O(logm), and K+2K+1K + 2\sqrt K + 1K+2K​+1 when there are only KKK distinct speeds (J. Algorithms 30 (1999) 323–343; conference version SODA 1997).

The mission formalizes the makespan half of that paper, up to its Theorem 3.7.

Setting

An instance has nnn jobs and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 machines. Job jjj requires pj>0p_j > 0pj​>0 units of processing, and machine iii runs at speed si>0s_i > 0si​>0, so job jjj takes pj/sip_j/s_ipj​/si​ time units on machine iii. A strict partial order ≺\prec≺ on the jobs gives precedence constraints: j≺kj \prec kj≺k means that job kkk may not start until job jjj has completed.

A schedule runs each job jjj without interruption on one machine μ(j)\mu(j)μ(j), from a start time Sj≥0S_j \ge 0Sj​≥0 to its completion time Cj=Sj+pj/sμ(j)C_j = S_j + p_j/s_{\mu(j)}Cj​=Sj​+pj​/sμ(j)​. A machine processes at most one job at a time, and j≺kj \prec kj≺k forces Cj≤SkC_j \le S_kCj​≤Sk​. Its length is Cmax⁡=max⁡jCjC_{\max} = \max_j C_jCmax​=maxj​Cj​. Cmax⁡∗C^*_{\max}Cmax∗​ is the length of an optimal schedule.

Let sˉ1>sˉ2>⋯>sˉK\bar s_1 > \bar s_2 > \cdots > \bar s_Ksˉ1​>sˉ2​>⋯>sˉK​ be the distinct speeds and mkm_kmk​ the number of machines of speed sˉk\bar s_ksˉk​. An assignment k(j)k(j)k(j) names the speed class at which job jjj is to run. Its loads are Dk=1mk∑j:k(j)=kpj/sˉkD_k = \frac{1}{m_k}\sum_{j:k(j)=k} p_j/\bar s_kDk​=mk​1​∑j:k(j)=k​pj​/sˉk​, and its chain bound CCC is the largest value of ∑j∈Cpj/sˉk(j)\sum_{j\in\mathcal C} p_j/\bar s_{k(j)}∑j∈C​pj​/sˉk(j)​ over chains C\mathcal CC of ≺\prec≺. Speed-based list scheduling is Graham's rule restricted by the assignment: whenever a machine of speed sˉk\bar s_ksˉk​ is idle, it starts the first available job jjj on the list with k(j)=kk(j) = kk(j)=k.

The linear program LP has variables xkj≥0x_{kj} \ge 0xkj​≥0, CjC_jCj​ and DDD. It minimizes DDD subject to the following constraints:

  • ∑kxkj=1\sum_k x_{kj} = 1∑k​xkj​=1;
  • 1mksˉk∑jpjxkj≤D\frac{1}{m_k\bar s_k}\sum_j p_j x_{kj} \le Dmk​sˉk​1​∑j​pj​xkj​≤D;
  • ∑k(pj/sˉk)xkj≤Cj\sum_k (p_j/\bar s_k)x_{kj} \le C_j∑k​(pj​/sˉk​)xkj​≤Cj​, and ∑k(pj/sˉk)xkj≤Cj−Cj′\sum_k (p_j/\bar s_k)x_{kj} \le C_j - C_{j'}∑k​(pj​/sˉk​)xkj​≤Cj​−Cj′​ whenever j′≺jj' \prec jj′≺j;
  • Cj≤DC_j \le DCj​≤D.

From a solution, with pˉj=∑k(pj/sˉk)xkj\bar p_j = \sum_k (p_j/\bar s_k)x_{kj}pˉ​j​=∑k​(pj​/sˉk​)xkj​, the assignment algorithm gives each job jjj the speed class k∉Bj={k:pj/sˉk>γpˉj}k \notin B_j = \{k : p_j/\bar s_k > \gamma\bar p_j\}k∈/Bj​={k:pj​/sˉk​>γpˉ​j​} of largest capacity sˉkmk\bar s_k m_ksˉk​mk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.7 (p. 10)

There is an absolute constant ccc such that for every instance with m≥2m \ge 2m≥2 machines and KKK distinct speeds, the better of the two schedules below has length at most

min⁡{K+2K+1, 1.89log⁡2m+clog⁡2m}⋅Cmax⁡∗.\min\bigl\{K + 2\sqrt K + 1,\ 1.89\log_2 m + c\sqrt{\log_2 m}\bigr\}\cdot C^*_{\max}.min{K+2K​+1, 1.89log2​m+clog2​m​}⋅Cmax∗​.
  • (A) An optimal LP solution, the assignment algorithm with γ=K+1\gamma = \sqrt K + 1γ=K​+1, and speed-based list scheduling.
  • (B) The same algorithm run on speeds rounded down to powers of eee, with machines slower than sˉ1/(mlog⁡2m)\bar s_1/(m\log_2 m)sˉ1​/(mlog2​m) dropped, and read back on the original machines.

Milestones, in proof order

  • Existence of speed-based list schedules (p. 4).
  • Theorem 2.1: Cmax⁡≤C+∑kDkC_{\max} \le C + \sum_k D_kCmax​≤C+∑k​Dk​.
  • The LP lower bound Dˉ≤Cmax⁡∗\bar D \le C^*_{\max}Dˉ≤Cmax∗​ (p. 6).
  • Lemmas 3.1–3.4: chain bounds 2Dˉ2\bar D2Dˉ and (K+1)Dˉ(\sqrt K + 1)\bar D(K​+1)Dˉ, and load bounds 2KDˉ2K\bar D2KDˉ and (K+K)Dˉ(K + \sqrt K)\bar D(K+K​)Dˉ.
  • Theorem 3.5 and Corollary 3.6: the factor K+2K+1K + 2\sqrt K + 1K+2K​+1 against Cmax⁡∗C^*_{\max}Cmax∗​ and against Dˉ\bar DDˉ.
  • Rounded schedules serve the original instance (p. 9).
  • The speed rounding: at most ⌊log⁡β(αm)⌋+1\lfloor\log_\beta(\alpha m)\rfloor + 1⌊logβ​(αm)⌋+1 speeds, and the LP value grows by a factor of at most β(1+1/α)\beta(1 + 1/\alpha)β(1+1/α) (p. 10).
  • The "In fact" form of the guarantee, relative to any feasible LP solution (p. 10).

Significance

The result gives the first O(log⁡m)O(\log m)O(logm) guarantee for Q∣prec∣Cmax⁡Q|prec|C_{\max}Q∣prec∣Cmax​, independent of the speeds, and a guarantee depending only on the number of distinct speeds. Through the batching technique of Shmoys, Wein and Williamson it extends to release dates (Corollary 3.8). Since LP also relaxes the preemptive problem, it gives an O(log⁡m)O(\log m)O(logm) bound on the ratio between the nonpreemptive and preemptive optima (Corollaries 3.9, 3.10). The "In fact" form, relative to an arbitrary feasible LP solution, drives the paper's ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ algorithm in §4.

The result is proved in the literature but, as far as is known, not formalized. A formal proof requires machine-checking the following:

  • the continuous-time list-scheduling argument for different speeds;
  • the filtering argument of Lin and Vitter;
  • the reduction to logarithmically many speeds, including the off-by-one count of rounded speeds that the page leaves implicit.

Later work gave a combinatorial O(log⁡m)O(\log m)O(logm)-approximation (Chekuri and Bender, 2001) and an O(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)O(\log m/\log\log m)O(logm/loglogm)-approximation (Li, 2017). These are not part of this mission.

Difficulty

Graham's argument has two lower bounds:

  1. the total processing along a chain;
  2. the time during which every machine is busy.

With different speeds, the first bound fails: a chain may have been run on slow machines, and its length then says nothing about Cmax⁡∗C^*_{\max}Cmax∗​. Forcing every job onto a fast machine repairs chains but can leave most machines idle, so the second bound fails. The paper only guarantees that all machines of one speed are busy at each moment of an idle period. Making this pay off requires an assignment that controls chain lengths and per-class loads simultaneously. That assignment is the delicate part: Theorem 2.1 is the bookkeeping, while Lemmas 3.2 and 3.4 rely on the LP. Two of the formal steps are routine on paper but fiddly in Lean: time-interval accounting over a continuous-time schedule, and the counting of rounded speed classes.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Jobs are Fin n and machines Fin m with m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. pj>0p_j > 0pj​>0 and si>0s_i > 0si​>0. ≺\prec≺ is a strict partial order, and a chain is a finite set of pairwise comparable jobs. Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ is the maximum completion time, or 000 with no jobs.
  • Speed classes. The classes are computed from the speeds, so mk≥1m_k \ge 1mk​≥1 and sˉk>0\bar s_k > 0sˉk​>0 by construction. The Lean index 000 is the paper's fastest class sˉ1\bar s_1sˉ1​.
  • The algorithm as predicates. Speed-based list scheduling is the predicate the proof of Theorem 2.1 uses: jobs run at their assigned speed, and no machine of a job's speed idles while that job is available and unstarted. Every list order and every order of idle machines satisfies it. The assignment algorithm is a predicate allowing every maximizer, since the page does not break ties. Theorems 3.5 and 3.7 quantify over all optimal LP solutions, all such assignments and all such schedules. Existence is supplied by the milestones.
  • Comparator. The bound is stated against every feasible schedule of the same instance, never against the LP value or a best schedule of the rounded instance. A statement asserting only that some good schedule exists would be trivially true (the optimum witnesses it); the goal bounds the schedule the algorithm returns.
  • Constants and logarithms. log⁡m\log mlogm is log⁡2m\log_2 mlog2​m, as the paper specifies. m≥2m \ge 2m≥2 is assumed in Theorem 3.7 and in the "In fact" remark, which are asymptotic in mmm. The O(log⁡m)O(\sqrt{\log m})O(logm​) term is one absolute constant ccc, quantified before the instance, and 1.891.891.89 is the page's number.
  • Generalizations and corrections. Lemmas 3.1–3.4 are stated for every feasible LP solution, since their proofs use only feasibility. The speed rounding is relative to sˉ1\bar s_1sˉ1​, with no normalization. The count of rounded speeds is ⌊log⁡β(αm)⌋+1\lfloor\log_\beta(\alpha m)\rfloor + 1⌊logβ​(αm)⌋+1; the page writes log⁡β(αm)\log_\beta(\alpha m)logβ​(αm).
  • Not formalized. Polynomial running time is not formalized.
  • Out of scope. Corollaries 3.8–3.10, Theorem 3.11 and §4 are excluded.

Proofs of any milestone are welcome. Reusable beyond this mission are the following: the model of nonpreemptive schedules on uniformly related machines with precedence, the speed-based list-scheduling predicate with Theorem 2.1, and the LP.

Selected references

  • F. A. Chudak and D. B. Shmoys, Approximation algorithms for precedence-constrained scheduling problems on parallel machines that run at different speeds, J. Algorithms 30 (1999) 323–343 (authors' manuscript used here). https://doi.org/10.1006/jagm.1998.0987
  • R. L. Graham, Bounds for certain multiprocessing anomalies, Bell System Technical Journal 45 (1966) 1563–1581. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1966.tb01709.x
  • J. M. Jaffe, Efficient scheduling of tasks without full use of processor resources, Theoretical Computer Science 12 (1980) 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3975(80)90002-4
  • J.-H. Lin and J. S. Vitter, ε-approximations with minimum packing constraint violation, STOC 1992, 771–782. https://doi.org/10.1145/129712.129787
  • D. B. Shmoys, J. Wein and D. P. Williamson, Scheduling parallel machines on-line, SIAM J. Computing 24 (1995) 1313–1331. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539793248317
  • C. Chekuri and M. A. Bender, An efficient approximation algorithm for minimizing makespan on uniformly related machines, J. Algorithms 41 (2001) 212–224. https://doi.org/10.1006/jagm.2001.1184
  • S. Li, Scheduling to minimize total weighted completion time via time-indexed linear programming relaxations, SIAM J. Computing 46 (2017) 409–440. https://doi.org/10.1137/15M1053163
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Purchasing, Pricing, and Quick Response in the Presence of Strategic Consumers: Under Condition (6), Quick Response Is More Valuable with Strategic Consumers than with Only Myopic OnesResearch Paper

Motivation

Fashion and consumer-electronics retailers sell a product at full price early in a season and mark down what is left. Consumers learn the pattern, and some of them wait for the markdown. Such strategic consumers lower the revenue of the full-price period, and the retailer's stocking decision affects how deep the markdown is expected to be. Quick response — a second, more expensive replenishment placed after demand is observed — is usually valued as a way to match supply with exogenous demand (Fisher and Raman 1996; Cachon and Terwiesch, Matching Supply with Demand, 2005). Cachon and Swinney ask how strategic waiting changes that value.

The source is the authors' working paper of April 2007, revised November 25, 2007, not the 2009 Management Science version, whose numbering and wording may differ. Its answer: with strategic consumers the retailer stocks less (Theorem 1), and under an explicit cost condition, quick response is worth more to a retailer facing strategic consumers than to one facing only myopic consumers (Theorem 3).

Setting

A retailer sells over two periods. It sells at the exogenous full price ppp in period 1 and at a markdown price s∈[0,p]s\in[0,p]s∈[0,p] chosen at the start of period 2. Leftover units are worth 000. First-period demand D≥0D\ge0D≥0 has density fff and distribution function FFF, and fff satisfies the monotone scaled likelihood ratio (MSLR) property: for every λ∈(0,1]\lambda\in(0,1]λ∈(0,1], x↦f(λx)/f(x)x\mapsto f(\lambda x)/f(x)x↦f(λx)/f(x) is monotonic on the support of fff.

The market has three segments:

  • myopic consumers, (1−α)D(1-\alpha)D(1−α)D of them, with value vMv_MvM​, who only buy in period 1;
  • strategic consumers, αD\alpha DαD of them, with value vMv_MvM​ in period 1 and second-period values uniform on [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ];
  • an unlimited pool of bargain hunters with value vBv_BvB​, who only buy on sale.

The standing assumptions are vˉ≤p\bar v\le pvˉ≤p and v‾≥vM−p+vB\underline v\ge v_M-p+v_Bv​≥vM​−p+vB​. Let Gˉ(s)\bar G(s)Gˉ(s) be the fraction of strategic values above sss.

By a threshold argument (Lemma 1), strategic consumers with value below some v^\hat vv^ buy at ppp and the rest wait. A fraction ξ=1−Gˉ(v^)α\xi=1-\bar G(\hat v)\alphaξ=1−Gˉ(v^)α of demand then buys in period 1, and the inventory left for period 2 is I=(q−ξD)+I=(q-\xi D)^+I=(q−ξD)+. The period-2 revenue R(s,I)R(s,I)R(s,I) counts the waiting strategic consumers with value at least sss and, if s≤vBs\le v_Bs≤vB​, the bargain hunters, up to the inventory III. The retailer's expected profit at unit cost ccc is

π(q,v^)=E[pmin⁡(q,ξD)−cq+sup⁡0≤s≤pR(s,I)].\pi(q,\hat v)=\mathbb E\Big[p\min(q,\xi D)-cq+\sup_{0\le s\le p}R(s,I)\Big].π(q,v^)=E[pmin(q,ξD)−cq+0≤s≤psup​R(s,I)].

With quick response, units ordered before the season cost c1c_1c1​ and units ordered after observing DDD cost c2c_2c2​, with c1≤c2≤pc_1\le c_2\le pc1​≤c2​≤p. The second order covers all first-period demand and may add stock for the sale. The resulting profit is πr(q,v^)\pi_r(q,\hat v)πr​(q,v^).

In the sale period, waiting strategic consumers are rationed: they effectively face the inventory θI\theta IθI, where θ∈[0,1]\theta\in[0,1]θ∈[0,1] measures their place in the queue. A strategic consumer with value v^\hat vv^ who waits gains, in expectation,

ψ(v^)=(v^−vB)Pr⁡(D<Dl and a unit is received),\psi(\hat v)=(\hat v-v_B)\Pr(D<D_l\text{ and a unit is received}),ψ(v^)=(v^−vB​)Pr(D<Dl​ and a unit is received),

where DlD_lDl​ is the demand level below which the retailer clears stock at sl=vBs_l=v_Bsl​=vB​. A rational expectations equilibrium (q∗,v∗)(q^*,v^*)(q∗,v∗) is a pair in which q∗q^*q∗ maximizes π(⋅,v∗)\pi(\cdot,v^*)π(⋅,v∗) and v∗v^*v∗ is a best response of consumers who correctly expect q∗q^*q∗. The superscript mmm denotes the benchmark with only myopic consumers (α=0\alpha=0α=0): πm\pi^mπm and πrm\pi^m_rπrm​ are the optimal myopic profits without and with quick response.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Assume MSLR and no rationing, 0<α≤10<\alpha\le10<α≤1, vB<c1<pv_B<c_1<pvB​<c1​<p, c1≤c2≤pc_1\le c_2\le pc1​≤c2​≤p, and condition (6):

vM−pvˉ−vB ≥ c2−c1c2−vB.\frac{v_M-p}{\bar v-v_B}\ \ge\ \frac{c_2-c_1}{c_2-v_B}.vˉ−vB​vM​−p​ ≥ c2​−vB​c2​−c1​​.

Let (q∗,v∗)(q^*,v^*)(q∗,v∗) be any equilibrium without quick response, (qr∗,vr∗)(q_r^*,v_r^*)(qr∗​,vr∗​) any equilibrium with it, and πm\pi^mπm, πrm\pi_r^mπrm​ the myopic optima. Then

πr(qr∗,vr∗)−π(q∗,v∗) ≥ πrm−πm.\pi_r(q_r^*,v_r^*)-\pi(q^*,v^*)\ \ge\ \pi_r^m-\pi^m .πr​(qr∗​,vr∗​)−π(q∗,v∗) ≥ πrm​−πm.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's path:

  • the threshold structure (Lemma 1);
  • the optimal sale price (Lemma 2) and quasi-concavity of π\piπ with first-order condition (2) (Lemma 3);
  • the fill probability and the limits of the best response (Lemma 4);
  • existence and the comparison q∗≤qmq^*\le q^mq∗≤qm, π∗≤πm\pi^*\le\pi^mπ∗≤πm (Theorem 1), with the myopic newsvendor F(qm)=(p−c)/(p−vB)F(q^m)=(p-c)/(p-v_B)F(qm)=(p−c)/(p−vB​);
  • the quick-response analogues (Lemma 5, Theorem 2 (i)), with the myopic fractile F(qrm)=(c2−c1)/(c2−vB)F(q^m_r)=(c_2-c_1)/(c_2-v_B)F(qrm​)=(c2​−c1​)/(c2​−vB​);
  • the statement that under (6) every equilibrium with quick response has vr∗=vˉv^*_r=\bar vvr∗​=vˉ (Theorem 2, last sentence).

Corollary 1 is the percentage form, Δ/π∗≥Δm/πm\Delta/\pi^*\ge\Delta_m/\pi^mΔ/π∗≥Δm​/πm.

Significance

Theorem 3 identifies a second channel through which quick response creates value. Beyond matching supply to demand, it lets the retailer keep its initial stock low enough that a deep markdown becomes unlikely, so strategic consumers buy at full price. Under (6), all of them do. Quick response thus reduces strategic waiting without withholding availability, unlike the inventory-signalling remedies in the literature, and the theorem quantifies when this effect dominates.

The results are proved in the working paper, partly in a technical appendix. No machine-checked version of them, or of the underlying markdown game, is known. A formalization pins down several statements that the paper states loosely:

  • the uniqueness claims of Lemmas 2 and 5;
  • the case condition of Lemma 4 (i), which is false as printed;
  • the sign in display (5);
  • the boundary cases of the threshold lemma.

It also produces reusable components: the newsvendor with salvage and the reactive-capacity fractile under a general density, and a rational-expectations equilibrium predicate for a retailer–consumer game.

Difficulty

The profit π(⋅,v^)\pi(\cdot,\hat v)π(⋅,v^) is not concave: with strategic consumers it is concave–convex (Figure 4 of the paper). The newsvendor argument therefore does not give a unique optimal order, and Lemma 3's quasi-concavity rests on MSLR in a short appendix step.

Existence (Theorem 1) needs a fixed point of the map q↦q\mapstoq↦ best response, but the consumer best response is a correspondence, not a function, so the printed intermediate-value argument does not apply directly. Theorem 3 needs a statement about every equilibrium with quick response, while Theorem 2's proof only exhibits one. Ruling out an equilibrium with vr∗<vˉv_r^*<\bar vvr∗​<vˉ requires comparing the derivative (4) of πr\pi_rπr​ with the myopic derivative along the whole demand distribution.

Formalization scope

Lean represents prices, quantities and valuations as reals, demand by a density f:R→Rf:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rf:R→R on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and expectations as Lebesgue integrals against fff. The model carries the standing assumptions of §3 as fields, plus the following additions and corrections, each disclosed in the item notes:

  • vB>0v_B>0vB​>0: DlD_lDl​ divides by sl=vBs_l=v_Bsl​=vB​.
  • p<vMp<v_Mp<vM​, strengthening vM≥pv_M\ge pvM​≥p: Lemma 4 (ii) and Theorem 2's last claim need it.
  • A finite mean: πr\pi_rπr​ contains E[pξD]\mathbb E[p\xi D]E[pξD].
  • The paper's "θc≤θ\theta_c\le\thetaθc​≤θ" (p. 15) is replaced by the no-rationing condition slGˉ(v^)≤θsmGˉ(sm)s_l\bar G(\hat v)\le\theta s_m\bar G(s_m)sl​Gˉ(v^)≤θsm​Gˉ(sm​) for every belief, which is exactly Dl≤DθD_l\le D_\thetaDl​≤Dθ​. The printed condition agrees with it only when sm=v^s_m=\hat vsm​=v^.
  • Lemma 4 (i) is stated with the corrected case split.
  • Lemmas 2 and 5 claim uniqueness only off the tie points.
  • c<pc<pc<p is the reading of the "p−c>0p-c>0p−c>0" step in the proof of Theorem 1.
  • In the quick-response profit, ξD\xi DξD replaces the DDD that the proof of Theorem 2 prints.

Optimal revenues are suprema over all prices s∈[0,p]s\in[0,p]s∈[0,p] (and q2≥0q_2\ge0q2​≥0 with quick response). "Optimal order" means a maximizer over all q≥0q\ge0q≥0, never a stationary point, and the myopic benchmarks are the same functions at α=0\alpha=0α=0. Defining the optimal revenue by Lemma 2's closed form would make Lemma 2 and the first-order conditions definitional; it is not done.

The fill rate is min⁡{(1−ξ)x,θI}/((1−ξ)x)\min\{(1-\xi)x,\theta I\}/((1-\xi)x)min{(1−ξ)x,θI}/((1−ξ)x), set to 111 when no strategic consumer waits. With Lean's 0/0=00/0=00/0=0 instead, vˉ\bar vvˉ would be a best response to every order and Theorem 2's last claim would be trivial.

A complete development needs:

  • differentiation under the integral for piecewise-smooth integrands;
  • quasi-concavity from a single-crossing derivative;
  • a fixed-point argument for the equilibrium correspondence;
  • the newsvendor and reactive-capacity fractiles.

The last two are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, alternative existence arguments, and sorry-free proofs of the newsvendor items are welcome. The comparison "qr∗≤q∗q_r^*\le q^*qr∗​≤q∗, πr∗≥π∗\pi_r^*\ge\pi^*πr∗​≥π∗" of Theorem 2 and §8's numerical study are outside the scope.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, R. Swinney, Purchasing, Pricing, and Quick Response in the Presence of Strategic Consumers, working paper, revised November 25, 2007; published in Management Science 55(3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0948
  • M. L. Fisher, A. Raman, Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales, Operations Research 44(1), 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.44.1.87
  • J. F. Muth, Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, Econometrica 29(3), 1961. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909635
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Kullback–Leibler Upper Confidence Bounds for Optimal Sequential Allocation II: Empirical KL-UCB Draws a Suboptimal Arm log(T)/K_inf(ν_a, μ*) + O((log T)^{4/5} log log T) TimesResearch Paper

Motivation

In a stochastic multi-armed bandit a player repeatedly chooses one of KKK arms and receives a random reward drawn from that arm's unknown distribution; the aim is to pull suboptimal arms as rarely as possible. Lai and Robbins (1985) and, for general models, Burnetas and Katehakis (1996) showed that any reasonable strategy must pull a suboptimal arm aaa at least (1+o(1))log⁡T/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)(1+o(1))\log T/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)(1+o(1))logT/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆) times in TTT rounds, where Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ is a minimal Kullback–Leibler divergence defined below. A strategy whose expected number of pulls matches this constant is asymptotically optimal.

For rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], classical index policies such as UCB (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer, 2002) achieve O(log⁡T)O(\log T)O(logT) pulls but with a constant governed by the gap of the means, not by Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​. Cappé, Garivier, Maillard, Munos and Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3), 2013 (arXiv:1210.1136v4), introduce the KL-UCB family of index policies and prove finite-time bounds whose leading term is the Lai–Robbins/Burnetas–Katehakis constant. This mission formalizes their result for empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3, Theorem 2), which is asymptotically optimal in the nonparametric model of finitely supported distributions on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A companion mission covers kl-UCB in one-parameter exponential families (Theorem 1).

Timeline: Lai and Robbins (1985), lower bound for parametric families; Burnetas and Katehakis (1996), lower bound and asymptotically optimal policies for general models; Honda and Takemura (2010, 2011), the DMED algorithm, asymptotically optimal for finitely supported and bounded rewards; Cappé et al. (2013), the first index policy with a non-asymptotic bound whose leading term is optimal in this model.

Setting

A bandit has K≥2K\ge2K≥2 arms with reward distributions ν1,…,νK\nu_1,\dots,\nu_Kν1​,…,νK​ in a known model F\mathcal FF: the set of probability distributions over [0,1][0,1][0,1] with finite support. Write E(ν)=∫x dν(x)\mathrm E(\nu)=\int x\,d\nu(x)E(ν)=∫xdν(x), μa=E(νa)\mu_a=\mathrm E(\nu_a)μa​=E(νa​) and μ⋆=max⁡aμa\mu^\star=\max_a\mu_aμ⋆=maxa​μa​; arm aaa is suboptimal if μa<μ⋆\mu_a<\mu^\starμa​<μ⋆. At each round t≥1t\ge1t≥1 the player picks an arm AtA_tAt​ based on past observations and observes a reward drawn from νAt\nu_{A_t}νAt​​. Na(T)=∑t=1TI{At=a}N_a(T)=\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb I\{A_t=a\}Na​(T)=∑t=1T​I{At​=a} is the number of pulls of arm aaa up to round TTT.

Equivalently, each arm has a reward stack Xa,1,Xa,2,…X_{a,1},X_{a,2},\dotsXa,1​,Xa,2​,… of i.i.d. draws from νa\nu_aνa​, all stacks independent, and the nnn-th pull of arm aaa returns Xa,nX_{a,n}Xa,n​. The empirical distribution of the first nnn rewards is ν^a,n=1n∑k=1nδXa,k\hat\nu_{a,n}=\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\delta_{X_{a,k}}ν^a,n​=n1​∑k=1n​δXa,k​​, and ν^a(t)=ν^a,Na(t)\hat\nu_a(t)=\hat\nu_{a,N_a(t)}ν^a​(t)=ν^a,Na​(t)​.

The minimal divergence is

Kinf⁡(ν,μ)=inf⁡{KL(ν,ν′):ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ}∈[0,+∞],\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)=\inf\bigl\{\mathrm{KL}(\nu,\nu'):\nu'\in\mathcal F,\ \mathrm E(\nu')>\mu\bigr\}\in[0,+\infty],Kinf​(ν,μ)=inf{KL(ν,ν′):ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ}∈[0,+∞],

the smallest Kullback–Leibler divergence from ν\nuν to a distribution of the model whose mean exceeds μ\muμ.

Empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3) pulls each arm once, then for t=K,K+1,…t=K,K+1,\dotst=K,K+1,… pulls an arm maximizing

Ua(t)=sup⁡{E(ν):ν∈M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1}), KL(ν^a(t),ν)≤f(t)Na(t)},U_a(t)=\sup\Bigl\{\mathrm E(\nu):\nu\in\mathfrak M_1\bigl(\mathrm{Supp}(\hat\nu_a(t))\cup\{1\}\bigr),\ \mathrm{KL}(\hat\nu_a(t),\nu)\le\frac{f(t)}{N_a(t)}\Bigr\},Ua​(t)=sup{E(ν):ν∈M1​(Supp(ν^a​(t))∪{1}), KL(ν^a​(t),ν)≤Na​(t)f(t)​},

where M1(A)\mathfrak M_1(A)M1​(A) is the set of probability distributions carried by AAA and f(t)=log⁡t+log⁡log⁡tf(t)=\log t+\log\log tf(t)=logt+loglogt. The added point 111 is essential: without it the index is the empirical-likelihood bound, which equals the empirical mean when every observation is 000.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 15–16)

Assume μa>0\mu_a>0μa​>0 for all arms and μ⋆<1\mu^\star<1μ⋆<1. There is a constant M(νa,μ⋆)>0M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)>0M(νa​,μ⋆)>0 depending only on νa\nu_aνa​ and μ⋆\mu^\starμ⋆ such that, for every suboptimal arm aaa and all T≥3T\ge3T≥3,

E[Na(T)]≤log⁡TKinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+36(μ⋆)4(log⁡T)4/5log⁡log⁡T+(72(μ⋆)4+2μ⋆(1−μ⋆)Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)2)(log⁡T)4/5+(1−μ⋆)2M(νa,μ⋆)2(μ⋆)2(log⁡T)2/5+log⁡log⁡TKinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+2μ⋆(1−μ⋆)Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)2+4.\begin{aligned}\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le{}&\frac{\log T}{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}+\frac{36}{(\mu^\star)^4}(\log T)^{4/5}\log\log T+\Bigl(\frac{72}{(\mu^\star)^4}+\frac{2\mu^\star}{(1-\mu^\star)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)^2}\Bigr)(\log T)^{4/5}\\&+\frac{(1-\mu^\star)^2M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}{2(\mu^\star)^2}(\log T)^{2/5}+\frac{\log\log T}{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}+\frac{2\mu^\star}{(1-\mu^\star)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)^2}+4.\end{aligned}E[Na​(T)]≤​Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)logT​+(μ⋆)436​(logT)4/5loglogT+((μ⋆)472​+(1−μ⋆)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)22μ⋆​)(logT)4/5+2(μ⋆)2(1−μ⋆)2M(νa​,μ⋆)​(logT)2/5+Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)loglogT​+(1−μ⋆)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)22μ⋆​+4.​

The constants are the paper's. MMM is the one quantity the main text does not give; it is existentially quantified, before the bandit, so it may depend on nothing but (νa,μ⋆)(\nu_a,\mu^\star)(νa​,μ⋆).

Milestones

  1. (7), p. 9: the sets Cμ,γ={ν:∃ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ, KL(ν,ν′)≤γ}\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}=\{\nu:\exists\nu'\in\mathcal F,\ \mathrm E(\nu')>\mu,\ \mathrm{KL}(\nu,\nu')\le\gamma\}Cμ,γ​={ν:∃ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ, KL(ν,ν′)≤γ} satisfy Cμ,γ⊆{ν:Kinf⁡(ν,μ)≤γ}\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}\subseteq\{\nu:\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)\le\gamma\}Cμ,γ​⊆{ν:Kinf​(ν,μ)≤γ}.
  2. (5), p. 9: the decomposition {At+1=a}⊆{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}∪{μ†<Ua(t), At+1=a}\{A_{t+1}=a\}\subseteq\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}\cup\{\mu^\dagger<U_a(t),\ A_{t+1}=a\}{At+1​=a}⊆{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}∪{μ†<Ua​(t), At+1​=a}.
  3. The display after (7), p. 9: E[Na(T)]≤1+∑t=KT−1P{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+∑t=KT−1P{ν^a,Na(t)∈Cμ†,f(t)/Na(t), At+1=a}\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le1+\sum_{t=K}^{T-1}\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}+\sum_{t=K}^{T-1}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,N_a(t)}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(t)/N_a(t)},\ A_{t+1}=a\}E[Na​(T)]≤1+∑t=KT−1​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}+∑t=KT−1​P{ν^a,Na​(t)​∈Cμ†,f(t)/Na​(t)​, At+1​=a}.
  4. (8), p. 10: the second sum is at most ∑n=1T−KP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}\sum_{n=1}^{T-K}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}∑n=1T−K​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}.
  5. (9)–(10), p. 10: E[Na(T)]≤f(T)/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+∑n>n0P{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}+∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+2\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le f(T)/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)+\sum_{n>n_0}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}+\sum_t\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}+2E[Na​(T)]≤f(T)/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)+∑n>n0​​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}+∑t​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}+2 with n0=⌈f(T)/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)⌉n_0=\lceil f(T)/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)\rceiln0​=⌈f(T)/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)⌉.
  6. p. 15: the supremum defining Ua(t)U_a(t)Ua​(t) over F\mathcal FF equals the supremum over M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1})\mathfrak M_1(\mathrm{Supp}(\hat\nu_a(t))\cup\{1\})M1​(Supp(ν^a​(t))∪{1}).
  7. Implicit in Theorem 2: 0<Kinf⁡(ν,μ)<∞0<\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)<\infty0<Kinf​(ν,μ)<∞ for ν∈F\nu\in\mathcal Fν∈F and E(ν)<μ<1\mathrm E(\nu)<\mu<1E(ν)<μ<1.
  8. Proposition 1, p. 20: for nnn i.i.d. observations from any ν0\nu_0ν0​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with E(ν0)∈(0,1)\mathrm E(\nu_0)\in(0,1)E(ν0​)∈(0,1) and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0,
P{U(ν^n,ε)≤E(ν0)}≤P{Kinf⁡(ν^n,E(ν0))≥ε}≤e(n+2)exp⁡(−nε).\mathbb P\{U(\hat\nu_n,\varepsilon)\le\mathrm E(\nu_0)\}\le\mathbb P\{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\hat\nu_n,\mathrm E(\nu_0))\ge\varepsilon\}\le e(n+2)\exp(-n\varepsilon).P{U(ν^n​,ε)≤E(ν0​)}≤P{Kinf​(ν^n​,E(ν0​))≥ε}≤e(n+2)exp(−nε).

Significance

Theorem 2 gives a finite-time bound whose leading term, log⁡T/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)\log T/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)logT/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆), equals the Burnetas–Katehakis lower bound for the model F\mathcal FF. Hence empirical KL-UCB is asymptotically optimal among all strategies for finitely supported rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], and the regret ∑a(μ⋆−μa)E[Na(T)]\sum_a(\mu^\star-\mu_a)\mathbb E[N_a(T)]∑a​(μ⋆−μa​)E[Na​(T)] inherits the optimal constant. Since Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆) is at least the Bernoulli divergence of the means, and usually larger, the bound improves on kl-UCB and UCB for the same rewards. Proposition 1 is a non-asymptotic coverage bound for the empirical-likelihood upper confidence bound with the point 111 added, valid for every law on [0,1][0,1][0,1], not only finitely supported ones.

The proofs of Theorem 2 and Proposition 1 are in the paper's supplemental article (Appendix B), not in the main text; no machine-checked proof of either exists. The mission produces formal statements of the theorem and of the proof skeleton (5)–(10) that the paper shares with Theorem 1, and of the two facts about Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ that the bound needs. A formal proof would supply an explicit M(νa,μ⋆)M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)M(νa​,μ⋆), which the paper defines only inside the supplement.

Difficulty

The skeleton (5)–(10) is elementary bookkeeping; the difficulty lies in the two sums it leaves, both of which must be shown to be o(log⁡T)o(\log T)o(logT) with explicit constants. The second, ∑nP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}\sum_n\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}∑n​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}, needs a deviation estimate for the empirical Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ of a suboptimal arm that is precise enough to keep the leading constant 1/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)1/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)1/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆): a bound that only controls the deviation of the empirical mean loses it, since Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ depends on the whole distribution. The first, ∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}\sum_t\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}∑t​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}, concerns the optimal arm after a random number of pulls Na⋆(t)N_{a^\star}(t)Na⋆​(t), which the algorithm itself determines, so fixed-sample bounds such as Proposition 1 do not apply directly. Both need regularity of Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ as a function of a distribution in an infinite-dimensional model, where none of the closed forms of the exponential-family case is available.

Formalization scope

Arms are Fin K, and arm aaa of the paper is index a−1a-1a−1. The bandit is the platform's stack-of-rewards model RegretBandits.Stochastic.IsStochasticBandit: Xa,kX_{a,k}Xa,k​ (indexed from 000) are independent, identically distributed within each arm, with mean μa\mu_aμa​. Pull counts and μ⋆\mu^\starμ⋆ are the platform's pullCount and bestMean. Added to the page, and disclosed in each statement: every reward lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1] pathwise (a representation of "νa\nu_aνa​ is carried by [0,1][0,1][0,1]"), every arm choice is measurable, and in the goal the strategy is non-anticipating (At+1A_{t+1}At+1​ is measurable with respect to the arms and rewards of rounds 1,…,t1,\dots,t1,…,t). A run of Algorithm 3 is a pathwise predicate: rounds 1,…,K1,\dots,K1,…,K pull distinct arms, and every later round pulls a maximizer of U⋅(t)U_\cdot(t)U⋅​(t), with ties broken by any rule. KL is Mathlib's InformationTheory.klDiv in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞], with the empirical distribution as first argument. Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ is kept in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞] and converted to a real number only in the final bounds, where it is finite and positive. Probabilities of events whose measurability is not asserted are outer probabilities. The page's ∑n≥n0+1\sum_{n\ge n_0+1}∑n≥n0​+1​ in (10) is stated as the finite sum over n0<n≤T−Kn_0<n\le T-Kn0​<n≤T−K that (8) produces. The probability space of Theorem 2 lies in Type.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The index is a supremum over a set that is nonempty (it contains E(ν^a(t))\mathrm E(\hat\nu_a(t))E(ν^a​(t))) and bounded above, so it is never Lean's junk value. Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ and Cμ,γ\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}Cμ,γ​ range over F\mathcal FF, not over all measures. The run predicate has both the initialization and the argmax clause. MMM is quantified before the bandit and the horizon.

Reusable beyond this mission: Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ for F\mathcal FF, the empirical-likelihood bound UUU of (15), and Proposition 1, a concentration inequality for empirical Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ that applies to any bounded i.i.d. sample. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the skeleton (5)–(10) that also apply to the companion kl-UCB mission.

Selected references

  • O. Cappé, A. Garivier, O.-A. Maillard, R. Munos, G. Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3):1516–1541, 2013. arXiv:1210.1136v4, doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119; supplement doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119SUPP.
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Adv. Appl. Math. 6(1):4–22, 1985. doi:10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • A. N. Burnetas, M. N. Katehakis, Optimal adaptive policies for sequential allocation problems, Adv. Appl. Math. 17(2):122–142, 1996. doi:10.1006/aama.1996.0007
  • J. Honda, A. Takemura, An asymptotically optimal bandit algorithm for bounded support models, COLT 2010, 67–79.
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Mach. Learn. 47:235–256, 2002. doi:10.1023/A:1013689704352
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing 4: Online Rounding of the Fractional Routing Scheme Respects Capacities and Is O(log P(max)·[exp(1 + 2 ln m/u(min)) − 1])-CompetitiveResearch Paper

Motivation

In online routing of virtual circuits, connection requests between pairs of nodes of a capacitated network arrive one at a time. Each request must be accepted and routed on a single path with bandwidth 111, or rejected, immediately and irrevocably, and no edge may carry more than its capacity. The goal is to maximize the number of accepted requests (the throughput). The model goes back to Awerbuch, Azar and Plotkin (FOCS 1993), whose deterministic algorithm has a logarithmic competitive ratio when edge capacities are at least logarithmic in the size of the network, and it underlies the analysis of admission control in circuit-switched and bandwidth-reserved networks.

Buchbinder and Naor (Math. Oper. Res. 2009) recover an algorithm with the same competitive factor from a general recipe: an online primal–dual scheme first produces a feasible fractional routing online, and an online version of Raghavan's pessimistic estimator (J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 1988) then rounds it, also online. This mission formalizes that construction and its guarantee (Section 5.2 of the paper, with the Section 3 scheme it uses).

Timeline:

  • 1987–1988: Raghavan and Thompson introduce randomized rounding for multicommodity flow; Raghavan derandomizes it with pessimistic estimators.
  • 1993: Awerbuch, Azar and Plotkin give the deterministic throughput-competitive online routing algorithm.
  • 2005–2009: Buchbinder and Naor's primal–dual framework (ESA 2005; MOR 2009) derives an algorithm with the same factor systematically.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite set of mmm edges with capacities u(e)>0u(e) > 0u(e)>0, and u(min⁡)=min⁡eu(e)u(\min) = \min_e u(e)u(min)=mine​u(e). Requests r1,r2,…r_1, r_2, \dotsr1​,r2​,… arrive online; request rir_iri​ comes with a finite list P(ri)\mathcal P(r_i)P(ri​) of admissible paths, each a set of edges, all of size at most P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max).

A fractional routing assigns flows f(ri,P)≥0f(r_i, P) \ge 0f(ri​,P)≥0; it is feasible when ∑P∈P(ri)f(ri,P)≤1\sum_{P \in \mathcal P(r_i)} f(r_i, P) \le 1∑P∈P(ri​)​f(ri​,P)≤1 for every request and the load ∑ri∑P∋ef(ri,P)\sum_{r_i}\sum_{P \ni e} f(r_i, P)∑ri​​∑P∋e​f(ri​,P) of every edge is at most u(e)u(e)u(e). Its value is val(f)=∑ri∑Pf(ri,P)\mathrm{val}(f) = \sum_{r_i}\sum_P f(r_i, P)val(f)=∑ri​​∑P​f(ri​,P); OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is the largest value of a feasible routing of the arrived requests, an upper bound on the integral optimum.

The fractional scheme. The covering LP paired with the routing LP (the paper's primal, Fig. 3) has variables x(e)x(e)x(e) (cost u(e)u(e)u(e)) and Z(ri)Z(r_i)Z(ri​) (cost 111) with constraints ∑e∈Px(e)+Z(ri)≥1\sum_{e \in P} x(e) + Z(r_i) \ge 1∑e∈P​x(e)+Z(ri​)≥1. When rir_iri​ arrives, its paths are visited in order; for each path whose constraint fails, f(ri,P)f(r_i,P)f(ri​,P) is raised from 000 to the least value restoring it, while x(e)=max⁡(x(e),1ℓ(eB′Fe/(2u(e))−1))x(e) = \max\big(x(e), \tfrac1\ell(e^{B' F_e/(2u(e))}-1)\big)x(e)=max(x(e),ℓ1​(eB′Fe​/(2u(e))−1)) for e∈Pe \in Pe∈P and Z(ri)=max⁡(Z(ri),1ℓ(eB′f(ri)/2−1))Z(r_i) = \max\big(Z(r_i), \tfrac1\ell(e^{B' f(r_i)/2}-1)\big)Z(ri​)=max(Z(ri​),ℓ1​(eB′f(ri​)/2−1)) follow the flow (FeF_eFe​ the load of eee, f(ri)f(r_i)f(ri​) the flow of rir_iri​). The parameters are ℓ=P(max⁡)+1\ell = P(\max)+1ℓ=P(max)+1 and B′=2ln⁡(1+ℓ)B' = 2\ln(1+\ell)B′=2ln(1+ℓ).

The rounding. With the rounding scale B=exp⁡(1+ln⁡(2m)/u(min⁡))−1B = \exp(1 + \ln(2m)/u(\min)) - 1B=exp(1+ln(2m)/u(min))−1, the integral edge usage χ(e)\chi(e)χ(e) and the number sss of served requests, the potential is Φ=Φ1+Φ2\Phi = \Phi_1 + \Phi_2Φ=Φ1​+Φ2​,

Φ1=12exp⁡(val(f)2B−sln⁡2),Φ2=12m∑eexp⁡((1+ln⁡2mu(e))χ(e)−Fe).\Phi_1 = \tfrac12\exp\Big(\frac{\mathrm{val}(f)}{2B} - s\ln 2\Big), \qquad \Phi_2 = \frac1{2m}\sum_{e}\exp\Big(\Big(1+\frac{\ln 2m}{u(e)}\Big)\chi(e) - F_e\Big).Φ1​=21​exp(2Bval(f)​−sln2),Φ2​=2m1​e∑​exp((1+u(e)ln2m​)χ(e)−Fe​).

After the fractional round of rir_iri​, the algorithm serves rir_iri​ on a path P∈P(ri)P \in \mathcal P(r_i)P∈P(ri​) (adding 111 to χ(e)\chi(e)χ(e) for e∈Pe \in Pe∈P) if this gives potential at most the potential Φstart\Phi^{\mathrm{start}}Φstart before the round; otherwise it rejects rir_iri​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 5.4

For every request sequence, the algorithm never exceeds a capacity, and for every feasible fractional routing fff,

χ(e)≤u(e)  ∀e,∑riχ(ri) ≥ val(f)4Bln⁡2⋅ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)−1.\chi(e) \le u(e)\ \ \forall e, \qquad \sum_{r_i}\chi(r_i) \ \ge\ \frac{\mathrm{val}(f)}{4B\ln 2\cdot\ln(P(\max)+2)} - 1 .χ(e)≤u(e)  ∀e,ri​∑​χ(ri​) ≥ 4Bln2⋅ln(P(max)+2)val(f)​−1.

Milestone: Theorem 3.2 (packing half, on routing)

The fractional scheme's flows falgf^{\mathrm{alg}}falg are feasible and val(f)≤2ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2) val(falg)\mathrm{val}(f) \le 2\ln(P(\max)+2)\,\mathrm{val}(f^{\mathrm{alg}})val(f)≤2ln(P(max)+2)val(falg) for every feasible fff.

Milestone: Lemma 5.3

Φ≤1\Phi \le 1Φ≤1 initially, Φ>0\Phi > 0Φ>0 always, and whenever the flows of a request are raised by a non-negative amount of total at most 111, serving the request on some path or rejecting it does not increase Φ\PhiΦ.

Significance

The result shows that a deterministic online algorithm for throughput-competitive routing, previously designed by hand, falls out of two generic components: an online fractional packing scheme and an online pessimistic estimator. A side product is that the fractional phase alone produces, online, a near-optimal routing that respects all capacities exactly, independently of their size. When u(min⁡)≥log⁡nu(\min) \ge \log nu(min)≥logn the rounding loses only a constant factor and the algorithm is O(log⁡P(max⁡))O(\log P(\max))O(logP(max))-competitive, as in Awerbuch–Azar–Plotkin.

The results are proved in the paper; none is machine-checked. A formalization supplies a checked instance of the online primal–dual method together with derandomized online rounding, and fixes the constants the paper leaves inside O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). Related platform content: the monograph's OnlinePrimalDual.Routing.per_copy_guarantee and routing_competitive concern the Buchbinder–Naor (1,O(log⁡n))(1, O(\log n))(1,O(logn))-competitive algorithm with copies of the graph, a different scheme.

Difficulty

The fractional guarantee is argued in the paper continuously (rates of change of the primal and dual values), while the scheme as formalized is discrete: each flow is the least value restoring a constraint, and every primal variable is a maximum whose branch may switch during the increase. The continuous argument does not transfer verbatim, and feasibility depends on the least value restoring the constraint with equality.

The rounding is a derandomization. The existence of a good path or a good rejection is established in the paper as an expectation over a random trial; a deterministic statement about finitely many alternatives is what the mission asks for, with all m+1m+1m+1 exponential terms of Φ\PhiΦ under control at once. A frequent first attempt compares with the potential after the fractional round; the rule compares with Φstart\Phi^{\mathrm{start}}Φstart, before the flow increase, and the guarantee is stated for that comparison.

Formalization scope

  • Edges are a non-empty Fintype E; capacities are real and positive. A request is a List (Finset E) of paths; the request sequence is a list. Simple paths of a graph are a special case; nothing in the argument uses graph structure. P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max) is a parameter with every path of size at most P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max).
  • A routing is a List (List ℝ) of the shape of the request sequence. OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is quantified as "every feasible fractional routing".
  • The continuous increase is its discrete equivalent (an attained sInf). Ties among good paths are broken by list order; only paths that received flow in the current round are candidates for serving, so a request whose flow was not increased is rejected.
  • Explicit constants replacing O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅): Theorem 3.2's O(log⁡ℓ)O(\log \ell)O(logℓ) becomes 2ln⁡(1+ℓ)=2ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)2\ln(1+\ell) = 2\ln(P(\max)+2)2ln(1+ℓ)=2ln(P(max)+2); Lemma 5.4's O(log⁡P(max⁡)⋅[exp⁡(1+2ln⁡m/u(min⁡))−1])O(\log P(\max)\cdot[\exp(1+2\ln m/u(\min))-1])O(logP(max)⋅[exp(1+2lnm/u(min))−1]) becomes 4Bln⁡2⋅ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)4B\ln 2\cdot\ln(P(\max)+2)4Bln2⋅ln(P(max)+2) with additive −1-1−1, where B=exp⁡(1+ln⁡(2m)/u(min⁡))−1B = \exp(1+\ln(2m)/u(\min))-1B=exp(1+ln(2m)/u(min))−1 is the scale chosen on p. 15. The printed "2ln⁡m2\ln m2lnm" differs from the proof's "ln⁡2m\ln 2mln2m"; the proof's constant is used (it is at least as strong for m≥2m \ge 2m≥2). All logarithms are natural.
  • The algorithm is a fully specified function: a formalization in which requests are never served, or OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is a free variable pinned by hypotheses, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out.
  • Not included: the covering half of Theorem 3.2, and the remark on u(min⁡)≥log⁡nu(\min) \ge \log nu(min)≥logn.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a reusable lemma "convex combination ≤\le≤ value ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ some outcome ≤\le≤ value" for derandomization, and the discrete-to-continuous bridge for the Section 3 scheme.

Selected references

  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0363
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar, S. Plotkin, Throughput-Competitive On-Line Routing, Proc. 34th FOCS, pp. 32–40, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1109/SFCS.1993.366884
  • P. Raghavan, Probabilistic construction of deterministic algorithms: approximating packing integer programs, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 37(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0000(88)90003-7
  • P. Raghavan, C. D. Thompson, Randomized rounding: a technique for provably good algorithms and algorithmic proofs, Combinatorica 7(4), 1987. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579324
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Revenue Management with Forward-Looking Buyers: Under Weakly Decreasing Demand the Deterministic Optimal Cutoffs Fall over Time and Satisfy One-Period Look-AheadResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of seasonal goods (fashion, electronics, airline seats) sell a fixed stock over a finite season to customers who arrive over time, and those customers know that prices may fall. A customer who expects a markdown waits, and a seller who ignores this loses revenue. The classical revenue-management literature (Gallego and van Ryzin 1994; Talluri and van Ryzin 2004) models myopic customers who buy on arrival or leave; the literature on forward-looking (strategic) buyers, for instance Aviv and Pazgal (2008), studies particular price paths.

Board and Skrzypacz ask the mechanism-design question: among all selling schemes, which maximizes the seller's expected discounted revenue when buyers arrive over time, have private values and time their purchases strategically? Their answer, published in the Journal of Political Economy in 2016, is that the optimal mechanism has a simple structure: in every period the seller sells to the highest remaining buyer if and only if his value exceeds a cutoff that depends only on the period and the number of units left. When demand is weakly decreasing over time, the cutoffs are characterized by one-period indifference conditions, which in the continuous-time limit can be implemented by posted prices. The source used here is the authors' accepted manuscript of February 6, 2015; all page numbers refer to that manuscript.

Setting

A seller has units of a good and sells them over periods t∈{1,…,T}t\in\{1,\dots,T\}t∈{1,…,T}; unsold units are worth zero after period TTT. Payoffs are discounted by δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1). At the start of period ttt a random number NtN_tNt​ of buyers arrives, independently across periods, with a law that may depend on ttt. Each buyer wants one unit; his value is drawn independently from a distribution with continuous density fff, distribution function FFF and support [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ]. The marginal revenue of a buyer with value vvv is

m(v)=v−1−F(v)f(v),m(v)=v-\frac{1-F(v)}{f(v)},m(v)=v−f(v)1−F(v)​,

assumed strictly increasing and continuously differentiable, with m(v‾)<0m(\underline v)<0m(v​)<0.

By the standard mechanism-design reduction (§2.1, eq. (2.5)), the seller's problem is to choose when to serve each buyer so as to maximize the expected discounted sum of the served buyers' marginal revenues. The state in period ttt, after the period-ttt entrants have arrived, is the number kkk of units left and the values y1≥y2≥⋯y^1\ge y^2\ge\cdotsy1≥y2≥⋯ of the buyers present. The value Πtk\Pi^k_tΠtk​ and the pre-entry value Π~tk\tilde\Pi^k_{t}Π~tk​ satisfy the Bellman equation (4.3):

Πtk(y)=max⁡0≤j≤k[∑i=1jm(yi)+δ Π~t+1k−j(y−j)],Π~t+1k(y)=Et+1[Πt+1k(y∪vt+1)],\Pi^k_t(\mathbf y)=\max_{0\le j\le k}\Big[\sum_{i=1}^j m(y^i)+\delta\,\tilde\Pi^{k-j}_{t+1}(\mathbf y^{-j})\Big],\qquad \tilde\Pi^k_{t+1}(\mathbf y)=E_{t+1}\big[\Pi^k_{t+1}(\mathbf y\cup\mathbf v_{t+1})\big],Πtk​(y)=0≤j≤kmax​[i=1∑j​m(yi)+δΠ~t+1k−j​(y−j)],Π~t+1k​(y)=Et+1​[Πt+1k​(y∪vt+1​)],

where y−j\mathbf y^{-j}y−j is the set of buyers left after the jjj highest are served and vt+1\mathbf v_{t+1}vt+1​ the next period's entrants. Selling one unit to y1y^1y1 today rather than none gives the difference function

ΔΠtk(y1,y−1)=m(y1)+δΠ~t+1k−1(y−1)−δΠ~t+1k(y1,y−1),\Delta\Pi^k_t(y^1,\mathbf y^{-1})=m(y^1)+\delta\tilde\Pi^{k-1}_{t+1}(\mathbf y^{-1})-\delta\tilde\Pi^k_{t+1}(y^1,\mathbf y^{-1}),ΔΠtk​(y1,y−1)=m(y1)+δΠ~t+1k−1​(y−1)−δΠ~t+1k​(y1,y−1),

and the cutoff xtkx^k_txtk​ is the smallest y∈[v‾,vˉ]y\in[\underline v,\bar v]y∈[v​,vˉ] with ΔΠtk(y,∅)≥0\Delta\Pi^k_t(y,\varnothing)\ge 0ΔΠtk​(y,∅)≥0. Comparing selling to y1y^1y1 today with waiting and selling at least one unit tomorrow (to the best of y1y^1y1 and the entrants) gives DΠtk(y1)D\Pi^k_t(y^1)DΠtk​(y1) (p. 17). Demand is weakly decreasing in the usual stochastic order if P(Nt+1>x)≤P(Nt>x)P(N_{t+1}>x)\le P(N_t>x)P(Nt+1​>x)≤P(Nt​>x) for all xxx and ttt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 17)

If NtN_tNt​ is weakly decreasing in the usual stochastic order then, for every k≥1k\ge 1k≥1,

xt+1k≤xtk(1≤t≤T−1),DΠtk(xtk)=0,x^k_{t+1}\le x^k_t\quad(1\le t\le T-1),\qquad D\Pi^k_t(x^k_t)=0,xt+1k​≤xtk​(1≤t≤T−1),DΠtk​(xtk​)=0,

and xtkx^k_txtk​ is the unique root of DΠtkD\Pi^k_tDΠtk​ in [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ] for t≤T−1t\le T-1t≤T−1: the seller is indifferent between selling to the cutoff type today and waiting one period to sell that unit tomorrow (the one-period-look-ahead property).

Central milestone: Theorem 1 (p. 15)

For every ttt and k≥1k\ge 1k≥1, the optimal rule sells to the highest buyer iff y1≥xtky^1\ge x^k_ty1≥xtk​, whatever the values of the lower buyers; xtk+1≤xtkx^{k+1}_t\le x^k_txtk+1​≤xtk​; and xtkx^k_txtk​ is the unique root of ΔΠtk\Delta\Pi^k_tΔΠtk​.

Milestones

In attack order:

  1. Lemma 1: allocations are monotone in values.
  2. Lemma 2: with cutoffs decreasing in the unit index, units can be treated one at a time.
  3. Equation (A.1): increasing differences of Π\PiΠ.
  4. Lemma 3: ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ is independent of lower buyers, continuous and strictly increasing in y1y^1y1, and increasing in kkk.
  5. Footnote 12: the boundary values of ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ.
  6. Theorem 1.
  7. Strict monotonicity of DΠD\PiDΠ in y1y^1y1 (p. 18).
  8. Lemma 4: DΠt+1k≥DΠtkD\Pi^k_{t+1}\ge D\Pi^k_tDΠt+1k​≥DΠtk​.

After the goal, (4.7) gives the period-(T−1)(T-1)(T−1) cutoff equation m(xT−1k)=δET[max⁡{m(xT−1k),m(vTk)}]m(x^k_{T-1})=\delta E_T[\max\{m(x^k_{T-1}),m(v^k_T)\}]m(xT−1k​)=δET​[max{m(xT−1k​),m(vTk​)}].

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the optimal allocation does not depend on how many buyers are present or what their values are, only on time and inventory. This is what makes the optimal mechanism implementable without eliciting values from buyers as they arrive. Theorem 2 turns the global dynamic program into local indifference conditions. In the continuous-time limit (§5 of the paper) these become differential equations, and the optimum is implemented by posted prices with an auction at the end of the season. Under weakly decreasing demand, therefore, the classical revenue-management practice of posting prices loses nothing against the best possible mechanism.

The paper's results are proved, in prose, with envelope-theorem and coupling arguments. They have not been machine-checked. A formal development would produce a verified backward-induction model of multi-unit dynamic allocation with random arrivals, with the structural results (monotonicity, deterministic cutoffs, monotone comparative statics in inventory and time) that recur across dynamic pricing and optimal stopping. Two printed gaps are recorded below: the positivity of m(vˉ)m(\bar v)m(vˉ), and the restriction of footnote 12 to t≤T−1t\le T-1t≤T−1.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at "deterministic". A priori the cutoff for the highest buyer depends on the values of the lower buyers, because selling a unit today changes which of them will be served later and when. Lemma 3(a) holds only under the induction hypothesis that all future cutoffs are already deterministic and decreasing in inventory, so Lemma 3, Theorem 1 and (A.1) form a single backward induction over periods and units, and none of them can be proved in isolation. The value function is an expectation, over a random number of i.i.d. entrants, of a maximum over sorted values, so continuity and strict monotonicity in y1y^1y1 (Lemma 3(b), and the same for DΠD\PiDΠ) are not available from general facts. The tempting argument for Theorem 2, that cutoffs fall over time simply because fewer buyers arrive later, is incomplete: Lemma 4 has to compare two periods with different arrival laws and different future cutoffs at once.

Formalization scope

Periods are natural numbers 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T with T≥1T\ge1T≥1, and units are natural numbers. Values, marginal revenues and profits are real numbers. The buyers present form a finite multiset of reals, and an absent buyer is absent, never a value 000. The value law is the measure with density fff; the density is positive and continuous on [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ] and zero outside, and mmm is defined from fff and FFF. Expectations over a cohort are lower Lebesgue integrals against ∑nP(Nt=n) μ⊗n\sum_n P(N_t=n)\,\mu^{\otimes n}∑n​P(Nt​=n)μ⊗n of nonnegative bounded quantities, so no non-measurable or non-integrable integrand can silently become 000. The value function is defined by the Bellman equation (4.3), with ΠT+1≡0\Pi_{T+1}\equiv0ΠT+1​≡0. The sequence problem (4.1) over purchase times is not formalized; the paper says either may be used (footnote 16).

Standing assumptions and handled gaps:

  • δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1);
  • NtN_tNt​ independent across periods (only the marginal laws enter);
  • mmm strictly increasing and C1C^1C1 on [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ] with m(v‾)<0m(\underline v)<0m(v​)<0;
  • added: m(vˉ)>0m(\bar v)>0m(vˉ)>0, which footnote 12 uses without stating; without it no unit is ever sold and no cutoff exists;
  • added: f>0f>0f>0 on the closed support, needed for mmm to be defined there;
  • footnote 12's equality ΔΠtk(vˉ)=(1−δ)m(vˉ)\Delta\Pi^k_t(\bar v)=(1-\delta)m(\bar v)ΔΠtk​(vˉ)=(1−δ)m(vˉ) is stated for t≤T−1t\le T-1t≤T−1 only, since ΔΠTk=m\Delta\Pi^k_T=mΔΠTk​=m;
  • DΠtkD\Pi^k_tDΠtk​ is used only for t≤T−1t\le T-1t≤T−1, and Lemma 4 needs t+1≤T−1t+1\le T-1t+1≤T−1;
  • "decreasing" and "increasing" are weak except in Lemma 3(b) and for DΠD\PiDΠ;
  • at y1=xtky^1=x^k_ty1=xtk​ both selling and waiting are optimal.

The cutoff is defined from ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ, never as the threshold of an optimal policy, and "optimal" always means maximal in (4.3) over every number of units sold. A formalization that postulates a threshold policy, replaces the random cohort by its mean, or sets absent buyers to value 000 would trivialize or change the statements and is ruled out. The mechanism-design reduction (IC/IR to (2.5)) and the continuous-time results of §5 are out of scope.

The usual stochastic order is the published platform definition StochasticOrders.Usual.UsualOrder. A complete development needs finite-horizon dynamic programming over multisets, expectations of functions of sorted i.i.d. samples, envelope arguments, and monotone coupling for the usual stochastic order on N\mathbb NN; these parts are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is a proof that (4.3) agrees with the sequence problem (4.1).

Selected references

  • S. Board and A. Skrzypacz, Revenue Management with Forward-Looking Buyers, Journal of Political Economy 124(4), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1086/686713
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8), 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • Y. Aviv and A. Pazgal, Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(3), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0183
  • K. T. Talluri and G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity XIII: Newton's Method Converges Quadratically, ‖x_{k+1} − x*‖ ≤ (M/μ)‖x_k − x*‖², from ‖x₀ − x*‖ ≤ μ/(2M)Textbook

Motivation

Newton's method is the basic second-order method of continuous optimization: at the current point it replaces the objective by its second-order Taylor model and jumps to the stationary point of that model. Its defining property is speed near a nondegenerate minimum, where the error is squared at every step, so that the number of correct digits roughly doubles per iteration. This local behaviour is what makes Newton's method the inner engine of interior point methods, the polynomial-time algorithms for linear, conic and general convex programming (Nesterov and Nemirovski, 1994). In S. Bubeck's monograph Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2015; arXiv:1405.4980v2), §5.3.2 recalls the traditional local analysis of Newton's method, Theorem 5.3, before turning to the affine-invariant self-concordance analysis used for interior point methods. This mission formalizes that theorem and the four steps of its proof.

Setting

Let Rn\mathbb R^nRn carry the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥, and write ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥ for the operator norm of a linear map A:Rn→RnA:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nA:Rn→Rn, so that ∥Ax∥≤∥A∥ ∥x∥\|Ax\|\le\|A\|\,\|x\|∥Ax∥≤∥A∥∥x∥. Let f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R be a C2C^2C2 function, with gradient ∇f(x)∈Rn\nabla f(x)\in\mathbb R^n∇f(x)∈Rn and Hessian ∇2f(x)\nabla^2 f(x)∇2f(x), a linear map Rn→Rn\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nRn→Rn (the derivative of the gradient map). For a real number ccc, A⪰cInA\succeq cI_nA⪰cIn​ means ⟨Av,v⟩≥c∥v∥2\langle Av,v\rangle\ge c\|v\|^2⟨Av,v⟩≥c∥v∥2 for all v∈Rnv\in\mathbb R^nv∈Rn.

The Hessian is MMM-Lipschitz if ∥∇2f(x)−∇2f(y)∥≤M∥x−y∥\|\nabla^2 f(x)-\nabla^2 f(y)\|\le M\|x-y\|∥∇2f(x)−∇2f(y)∥≤M∥x−y∥ for all x,y∈Rnx,y\in\mathbb R^nx,y∈Rn.

Newton's method starts at x0∈Rnx_0\in\mathbb R^nx0​∈Rn and iterates, for k≥0k\ge0k≥0,

xk+1=xk−[∇2f(xk)]−1∇f(xk).x_{k+1}=x_k-[\nabla^2 f(x_k)]^{-1}\nabla f(x_k).xk+1​=xk​−[∇2f(xk​)]−1∇f(xk​).

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimum of fff if f(x∗)≤f(x)f(x^*)\le f(x)f(x∗)≤f(x) for all xxx in a neighbourhood of x∗x^*x∗; it has strictly positive Hessian if ∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn\nabla^2 f(x^*)\succeq\mu I_n∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn​ for some μ>0\mu>0μ>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3 (p. 320)

Assume the Hessian of fff is MMM-Lipschitz, M>0M>0M>0, and x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimum with ∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn\nabla^2 f(x^*)\succeq\mu I_n∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn​, μ>0\mu>0μ>0. If ∥x0−x∗∥≤μ/(2M)\|x_0-x^*\|\le\mu/(2M)∥x0​−x∗∥≤μ/(2M), then Newton's method from x0x_0x0​ is well defined (every Hessian along the iterates is invertible, so the sequence exists and is unique) and

∥xk+1−x∗∥≤Mμ ∥xk−x∗∥2(k≥0),xk→x∗.\|x_{k+1}-x^*\|\le\frac M\mu\,\|x_k-x^*\|^2\quad(k\ge0),\qquad x_k\to x^*.∥xk+1​−x∗∥≤μM​∥xk​−x∗∥2(k≥0),xk​→x∗.

Milestones (p. 321, the steps of the proof)

  1. The integral formula ∫01∇2f(x+sh) h ds=∇f(x+h)−∇f(x)\int_0^1\nabla^2 f(x+sh)\,h\,ds=\nabla f(x+h)-\nabla f(x)∫01​∇2f(x+sh)hds=∇f(x+h)−∇f(x).
  2. The error representation of one Newton step, xk+1−x∗=[∇2f(xk)]−1∫01[∇2f(xk)−∇2f(x∗+s(xk−x∗))](xk−x∗) dsx_{k+1}-x^*=[\nabla^2 f(x_k)]^{-1}\int_0^1[\nabla^2 f(x_k)-\nabla^2 f(x^*+s(x_k-x^*))](x_k-x^*)\,dsxk+1​−x∗=[∇2f(xk​)]−1∫01​[∇2f(xk​)−∇2f(x∗+s(xk​−x∗))](xk​−x∗)ds.
  3. The Lipschitz bound ∫01∥∇2f(xk)−∇2f(x∗+s(xk−x∗))∥ ds≤M2∥xk−x∗∥\int_0^1\|\nabla^2 f(x_k)-\nabla^2 f(x^*+s(x_k-x^*))\|\,ds\le\frac M2\|x_k-x^*\|∫01​∥∇2f(xk​)−∇2f(x∗+s(xk​−x∗))∥ds≤2M​∥xk​−x∗∥.
  4. The Hessian lower bound ∇2f(xk)⪰(μ−M∥xk−x∗∥)In⪰μ2In\nabla^2 f(x_k)\succeq(\mu-M\|x_k-x^*\|)I_n\succeq\frac\mu2I_n∇2f(xk​)⪰(μ−M∥xk​−x∗∥)In​⪰2μ​In​ when ∥xk−x∗∥≤μ/(2M)\|x_k-x^*\|\le\mu/(2M)∥xk​−x∗∥≤μ/(2M).

Significance

The theorem gives a quantitative basin of quadratic convergence: an explicit radius μ/(2M)\mu/(2M)μ/(2M), depending only on the curvature at the minimum and the Lipschitz constant of the Hessian, inside which Newton's method needs only O(log⁡log⁡(1/ε))O(\log\log(1/\varepsilon))O(loglog(1/ε)) iterations to reach accuracy ε\varepsilonε. It is the classical statement whose shortcomings (dependence on a choice of norm, constants that change under linear changes of variables) motivate the self-concordance theory of the following subsections, and it is the local convergence result invoked whenever a damped or globalized Newton scheme is shown to enter its quadratic phase.

On the formal side, Mathlib has the calculus this needs (Fréchet derivatives, interval integrals of vector-valued maps, operator norms) but no convergence theorem for multivariate Newton's method for minimization. A formal proof produces reusable pieces: the integral form of the mean value theorem for gradients, the stability of a positive-definite lower bound under Lipschitz perturbations, and an inverse-operator norm bound from a quadratic-form lower bound. The result itself is classical and fully proved in the literature; what is open here is its machine-checked proof in this form.

Difficulty

The individual inequalities are short, but the argument is an induction in which well-definedness and the rate are proved together: the Hessian at xkx_kxk​ is invertible only because xkx_kxk​ is still in the ball of radius μ/(2M)\mu/(2M)μ/(2M), and xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ stays in that ball only because of the rate. A proof that first assumes the sequence exists and then bounds it is circular. The proof also passes between two kinds of control on the Hessian, a lower bound on its quadratic form and an operator-norm bound on its inverse, and the second is only meaningful once invertibility is established. Finally, the integral manipulations need integrability of the maps s↦∇2f(x∗+s(xk−x∗))(xk−x∗)s\mapsto\nabla^2 f(x^*+s(x_k-x^*))(x_k-x^*)s↦∇2f(x∗+s(xk​−x∗))(xk​−x∗), which comes from the continuity of the Hessian.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The gradient and Hessian are explicit maps g:Rn→Rng:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^ng:Rn→Rn and H:Rn→(Rn→LRn)H:\mathbb R^n\to(\mathbb R^n\to_L\mathbb R^n)H:Rn→(Rn→L​Rn) with ContDiff ℝ 2 f, HasGradientAt f (g x) x and HasFDerivAt g (H x) x at every point; the norm on H(x)H(x)H(x) is Mathlib's operator norm, as on the page. A⪰cInA\succeq cI_nA⪰cIn​ is the quadratic-form inequality. A Newton run is a sequence x:N→Rnx:\mathbb N\to\mathbb R^nx:N→Rn indexed from 000 satisfying the linear system ∇2f(xk)(xk−xk+1)=∇f(xk)\nabla^2 f(x_k)(x_k-x_{k+1})=\nabla f(x_k)∇2f(xk​)(xk​−xk+1​)=∇f(xk​); no inverse of a possibly singular operator appears in any hypothesis, and "well defined" is a conclusion: a unique run exists from x0x_0x0​ and every Hessian along it is bijective. The rate and xk→x∗x_k\to x^*xk​→x∗ are asserted for every run. The error representation is stated with both sides multiplied by ∇2f(xk)\nabla^2 f(x_k)∇2f(xk​), which is equivalent to the printed form once the Hessian is invertible. Milestones 3 and 4 use only the Lipschitz property and are stated for any Lipschitz map HHH.

Added hypothesis: M>0M>0M>0 (the radius μ/(2M)\mu/(2M)μ/(2M) divides by MMM; with M=0M=0M=0, Lean's convention μ/0=0\mu/0=0μ/0=0 would collapse the hypothesis to x0=x∗x_0=x^*x0​=x∗). Convexity of fff is not assumed, as on the page; x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimum and ∇f(x∗)=0\nabla f(x^*)=0∇f(x∗)=0 is derived, not assumed. Encoding the Newton step with Lean's inverse (which returns 000 on singular maps), or replacing ∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn\nabla^2 f(x^*)\succeq\mu I_n∇2f(x∗)⪰μIn​ by mere invertibility, would change the theorem and is ruled out.

A complete development needs the fundamental theorem of calculus for C1C^1C1 vector-valued maps along segments, Hessian-based quadratic-form estimates, and operator-norm bounds for inverses; all are reusable for the analysis of damped Newton, cubic regularization and interior point methods. Proofs of the milestones independently of the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. arXiv:1405.4980v2, §5.3.2, Theorem 5.3, pp. 320–321.
  • Yu. Nesterov and A. Nemirovski, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM Studies in Applied Mathematics 13, 1994. doi:10.1137/1.9781611970791
  • Yu. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004, Theorem 1.2.5. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity X: Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient Descent on a β-Smooth α-Strongly Convex Function Has Rate ((α + β)/2)‖x₁ − x*‖² exp(−(t − 1)/√κ)Textbook

Why accelerated rates matter

First-order methods, which query only function values and gradients, are the workhorse of large-scale optimization in machine learning, signal processing and operations research, because each step costs little more than one gradient evaluation. For a function that is both strongly convex and smooth, plain gradient descent converges geometrically, but the number of steps needed to reach accuracy ε\varepsilonε scales with the condition number κ\kappaκ of the problem. In 1983 Nesterov showed that a gradient method with a carefully chosen momentum term needs a number of steps proportional to κ\sqrt\kappaκ​ instead, and that this is optimal for black-box first-order methods. On ill-conditioned problems, where κ\kappaκ is in the thousands or millions, the difference between κ\kappaκ and κ\sqrt\kappaκ​ is the difference between practical and impractical.

This mission is the tenth of a series formalizing S. Bubeck's monograph Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2015; arXiv:1405.4980v2). It covers §3.7.1, the smooth and strongly convex case of Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent, and its main result, Theorem 3.18.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean inner product x⊤yx^\top yx⊤y and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. Let f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R be differentiable with gradient ∇f\nabla f∇f.

  • fff is β\betaβ-smooth if its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz: ∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|\le\beta\|x-y\|∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥ for all x,yx,yx,y.
  • fff is α\alphaα-strongly convex (α>0\alpha>0α>0) if for all x,yx,yx,y
f(y)≥f(x)+∇f(x)⊤(y−x)+α2∥y−x∥2.f(y)\ge f(x)+\nabla f(x)^\top(y-x)+\frac\alpha2\|y-x\|^2 .f(y)≥f(x)+∇f(x)⊤(y−x)+2α​∥y−x∥2.
  • The condition number is κ=β/α\kappa=\beta/\alphaκ=β/α; for n≥1n\ge1n≥1 one always has κ≥1\kappa\ge1κ≥1.
  • x∗x^*x∗ denotes a minimizer of fff on Rn\mathbb R^nRn.

Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent starts at an arbitrary point x1=y1x_1=y_1x1​=y1​ and iterates, for t≥1t\ge1t≥1,

yt+1=xt−1β∇f(xt),xt+1=(1+κ−1κ+1)yt+1−κ−1κ+1 yt.y_{t+1}=x_t-\frac1\beta\nabla f(x_t),\qquad x_{t+1}=\Big(1+\frac{\sqrt\kappa-1}{\sqrt\kappa+1}\Big)y_{t+1}-\frac{\sqrt\kappa-1}{\sqrt\kappa+1}\,y_t .yt+1​=xt​−β1​∇f(xt​),xt+1​=(1+κ​+1κ​−1​)yt+1​−κ​+1κ​−1​yt​.

The point yt+1y_{t+1}yt+1​ is a gradient step from xtx_txt​, and xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ moves beyond yt+1y_{t+1}yt+1​ in the direction yt+1−yty_{t+1}-y_tyt+1​−yt​ by the fixed momentum factor (κ−1)/(κ+1)(\sqrt\kappa-1)/(\sqrt\kappa+1)(κ​−1)/(κ​+1).

The analysis in the book uses auxiliary quadratic functions Φs\Phi_sΦs​ (an estimate sequence), defined from the points xsx_sxs​ by

Φ1(x)=f(x1)+α2∥x−x1∥2,Φs+1(x)=(1−1κ)Φs(x)+1κ(f(xs)+∇f(xs)⊤(x−xs)+α2∥x−xs∥2),\Phi_1(x)=f(x_1)+\frac\alpha2\|x-x_1\|^2,\qquad \Phi_{s+1}(x)=\Big(1-\frac1{\sqrt\kappa}\Big)\Phi_s(x)+\frac1{\sqrt\kappa}\Big(f(x_s)+\nabla f(x_s)^\top(x-x_s)+\frac\alpha2\|x-x_s\|^2\Big),Φ1​(x)=f(x1​)+2α​∥x−x1​∥2,Φs+1​(x)=(1−κ​1​)Φs​(x)+κ​1​(f(xs​)+∇f(xs​)⊤(x−xs​)+2α​∥x−xs​∥2),

together with their centres vsv_svs​ (with v1=x1v_1=x_1v1​=x1​ and the recursion (3.21) of the book) and their minimum values Φs∗\Phi^*_sΦs∗​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.18

For every run of the method and every t≥1t\ge1t≥1,

f(yt)−f(x∗)≤α+β2 ∥x1−x∗∥2exp⁡(−t−1κ).f(y_t)-f(x^*)\le\frac{\alpha+\beta}2\,\|x_1-x^*\|^2\exp\Big(-\frac{t-1}{\sqrt\kappa}\Big).f(yt​)−f(x∗)≤2α+β​∥x1​−x∗∥2exp(−κ​t−1​).

Milestones, from the book's proof

  1. (3.18): Φs+1(x)≤f(x)+(1−1/κ)s(Φ1(x)−f(x))\Phi_{s+1}(x)\le f(x)+(1-1/\sqrt\kappa)^s(\Phi_1(x)-f(x))Φs+1​(x)≤f(x)+(1−1/κ​)s(Φ1​(x)−f(x)) for all xxx.
  2. (3.19): f(ys)≤min⁡x∈RnΦs(x)f(y_s)\le\min_{x\in\mathbb R^n}\Phi_s(x)f(ys​)≤minx∈Rn​Φs​(x).
  3. The geometric rate: f(yt)−f(x∗)≤α+β2∥x1−x∗∥2(1−1/κ)t−1f(y_t)-f(x^*)\le\frac{\alpha+\beta}2\|x_1-x^*\|^2(1-1/\sqrt\kappa)^{t-1}f(yt​)−f(x∗)≤2α+β​∥x1​−x∗∥2(1−1/κ​)t−1.
  4. The form Φs(x)=Φs∗+α2∥x−vs∥2\Phi_s(x)=\Phi^*_s+\frac\alpha2\|x-v_s\|^2Φs​(x)=Φs∗​+2α​∥x−vs​∥2 with vsv_svs​ given by (3.21).
  5. The identity (3.22) for Φs+1∗\Phi^*_{s+1}Φs+1∗​.
  6. The inequality (3.20), the inductive step of (3.19).
  7. The coupling vs−xs=κ (xs−ys)v_s-x_s=\sqrt\kappa\,(x_s-y_s)vs​−xs​=κ​(xs​−ys​).

The geometric form in milestone 3 is slightly stronger than the goal, which follows from 1−u≤e−u1-u\le e^{-u}1−u≤e−u.

Significance

Theorem 3.18 gives ε\varepsilonε-accuracy after O(κlog⁡(1/ε))O(\sqrt\kappa\log(1/\varepsilon))O(κ​log(1/ε)) gradient evaluations. Projected gradient descent with step 1/β1/\beta1/β on the same class contracts only at the rate exp⁡(−t/κ)\exp(-t/\kappa)exp(−t/κ) (Theorem 3.10 of the book). The lower bound of Theorem 3.15 shows that no black-box first-order method can do better than ((κ−1)/(κ+1))2(t−1)((\sqrt\kappa-1)/(\sqrt\kappa+1))^{2(t-1)}((κ​−1)/(κ​+1))2(t−1), so the accelerated rate is optimal up to constants. The estimate-sequence argument is the template for many later accelerated methods: proximal, stochastic and variance-reduced variants such as Katyusha, and accelerated coordinate descent.

The result is classical and fully proved on paper. No machine-checked proof of the accelerated rate for strongly convex smooth functions is known to exist in Lean's Mathlib. This mission produces one, with the estimate sequence Φs\Phi_sΦs​, its centres and its minimum values as reusable objects, and with every algebraic identity of the book's proof stated separately.

Difficulty

The algorithm is two lines, but its analysis is not a one-step contraction: neither ∥xt−x∗∥\|x_t-x^*\|∥xt​−x∗∥ nor f(yt)−f(x∗)f(y_t)-f(x^*)f(yt​)−f(x∗) decreases by the factor 1−1/κ1-1/\sqrt\kappa1−1/κ​ at every step. A Lyapunov argument for gradient descent, applied directly to yty_tyt​, gives only the rate 1−1/κ1-1/\kappa1−1/κ. The book obtains the rate through the auxiliary functions Φs\Phi_sΦs​. The inequality (3.18) is easy, but (3.19), that the minimum of Φs\Phi_sΦs​ never drops below f(ys)f(y_s)f(ys​), depends on the exact choice of the momentum factor. It holds only through the identity vs−xs=κ(xs−ys)v_s-x_s=\sqrt\kappa(x_s-y_s)vs​−xs​=κ​(xs​−ys​), which ties the centre of Φs\Phi_sΦs​ to the iterates. Formally, the obstacles are the bookkeeping of the recursive quadratics on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and the algebra in κ\sqrt\kappaκ​, 1/κ1/\sqrt\kappa1/κ​ and 1/(ακ)=κ/β1/(\alpha\sqrt\kappa)=\sqrt\kappa/\beta1/(ακ​)=κ​/β.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The gradient is an explicit map g with HasGradientAt f (g x) x at every point, which is part of the smoothness predicate IsBetaSmooth f g β. Strong convexity is the published definition OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics.StronglyConvexOn Set.univ f g α, which is the book's (3.13).
  • A run of the method is a predicate IsNesterovSCRun g α β x y on two sequences indexed from 111, with x1=y1x_1=y_1x1​=y1​ arbitrary. Every theorem holds for every run, that is, every starting point.
  • κ\kappaκ is kappa α β = β / α. All theorems assume α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β>0\beta>0β>0. The second is implied by the other hypotheses for n≥1n\ge1n≥1; no hypothesis α≤β\alpha\le\betaα≤β is added.
  • The existence of a minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is the book's standing assumption, written as a hypothesis.
  • Φs\Phi_sΦs​, vsv_svs​ and Φs∗=Φs(vs)\Phi^*_s=\Phi_s(v_s)Φs∗​=Φs​(vs​) are explicit recursive definitions. The book's Φs∗=min⁡Φs\Phi^*_s=\min\Phi_sΦs∗​=minΦs​ is recovered by milestone 4, and no real infimum is used. The minimum in (3.19) is stated as f(ys)≤Φs(x)f(y_s)\le\Phi_s(x)f(ys​)≤Φs​(x) for every xxx.
  • The identities of milestones 4, 5 and 7 are algebraic and are stated without convexity or smoothness, for arbitrary sequences or runs.
  • Ruled out as trivializing: a run predicate that drops x1=y1x_1=y_1x1​=y1​ breaks (3.19) at s=1s=1s=1 and is not used. A minimum value Φs∗\Phi^*_sΦs∗​ defined through (3.22) would make that identity a tautology, so Φs∗\Phi^*_sΦs∗​ is defined as a value of Φs\Phi_sΦs​.
  • The definitions are local to the namespace ConvexOptAlg.NesterovStrong. β-smoothness duplicates the predicate of other missions of the series and will be merged afterwards. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and general lemmas on quadratics z↦c+α2∥z−v∥2z\mapsto c+\frac\alpha2\|z-v\|^2z↦c+2α​∥z−v∥2 that the algebraic milestones need.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. arXiv:1405.4980v2, §3.7.1, Theorem 3.18, pp. 290–293.
  • Y. Nesterov, A method of solving a convex programming problem with convergence rate O(1/k²), Soviet Mathematics Doklady 27:372–376, 1983.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Machine LearningOptimal TransportOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 2: ℓp-Regularized Logistic Regression and the Hinge-Loss SVM Are Wasserstein DRO under a Label-Preserving Transport CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Regularized logistic regression and the support vector machine (SVM) are two of the most widely used linear classifiers. Both are usually introduced as empirical risk minimization plus a norm penalty ∥β∥p\|\beta\|_p∥β∥p​ whose size is tuned by cross-validation, with the penalty justified heuristically as a guard against overfitting. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers a different reading: instead of minimizing the average loss on the training sample, minimize the worst average loss over all distributions close to the empirical one. Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627v4; J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) show that, for a suitable notion of closeness based on optimal transport, the robust problem and the penalized problem coincide exactly. The penalty is then the price of robustness against perturbations of the predictors, and the regularization parameter becomes the radius of an uncertainty set, which the same paper later chooses by a statistical criterion (the robust Wasserstein profile).

Related earlier work: Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (NIPS 2015) studied Wasserstein-robust logistic regression with a metric that charges a finite price κ\kappaκ for flipping a label, and obtained regularized logistic regression only in the limit κ→∞\kappa \to \inftyκ→∞. The result formalized here is the exact statement at κ=∞\kappa = \inftyκ=∞, together with the analogous statement for the hinge loss.

Setting

Training data are pairs (X1,Y1),…,(Xn,Yn)(X_1,Y_1),\dots,(X_n,Y_n)(X1​,Y1​),…,(Xn​,Yn​) with predictors Xi∈RdX_i \in \mathbb R^dXi​∈Rd and labels Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. Their empirical distribution is Pn=1n∑i=1nδ(Xi,Yi)P_n = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \delta_{(X_i,Y_i)}Pn​=n1​∑i=1n​δ(Xi​,Yi​)​, a probability measure on Z=Rd×RZ = \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb RZ=Rd×R.

For a cost c:Z×Z→[0,∞]c : Z \times Z \to [0,\infty]c:Z×Z→[0,∞], the optimal transport cost between probability measures PPP and QQQ on ZZZ is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU=P, πW=Q}.D_c(P,Q) = \inf\big\{\mathbb E_\pi[c(U,W)] : \pi \text{ a probability measure on } Z\times Z,\ \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q\big\}.Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU​=P, πW​=Q}.

The cost used here is the label-preserving cost: for q∈[1,∞]q \in [1,\infty]q∈[1,∞],

Nq((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q if y=v,+∞ otherwise.N_q\big((x,y),(u,v)\big) = \|x - u\|_q \text{ if } y = v, \qquad +\infty \text{ otherwise}.Nq​((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q​ if y=v,+∞ otherwise.

Every distribution PPP with DNq(P,Pn)<∞D_{N_q}(P,P_n) < \inftyDNq​​(P,Pn​)<∞ has the same label distribution as PnP_nPn​; only the predictors are perturbed. The exponent ppp is the conjugate of qqq, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1.

The losses are the log-exponential loss log⁡(1+e−yβTx)\log(1 + e^{-y\beta^T x})log(1+e−yβTx) and the hinge loss (1−yβTx)+(1 - y\beta^T x)^+(1−yβTx)+, for a coefficient vector β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd. The worst-case expected loss at radius δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 is sup⁡{EP[l]:DNq(P,Pn)≤δ}\sup\{\mathbb E_P[l] : D_{N_q}(P,P_n) \le \delta\}sup{EP​[l]:DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δ}, the supremum over probability measures PPP on ZZZ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 11)

For every δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 and every β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd,

sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[log⁡(1+e−YβTX)]=1n∑i=1nlog⁡(1+e−YiβTXi)+δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[\log(1 + e^{-Y\beta^T X})\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \log(1 + e^{-Y_i\beta^T X_i}) + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[log(1+e−YβTX)]=n1​i=1∑n​log(1+e−Yi​βTXi​)+δ∥β∥p​, sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[(1−YβTX)+]=1n∑i=1n(1−YiβTXi)++δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(1 - Y\beta^T X)^+\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n (1 - Y_i\beta^T X_i)^+ + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(1−YβTX)+]=n1​i=1∑n​(1−Yi​βTXi​)++δ∥β∥p​,

and consequently the two identities obtained by taking inf⁡β\inf_{\beta}infβ​ on both sides, which is how the paper prints the theorem.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): strong duality, sup⁡P:Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[l]=min⁡γ≥0{γδ+1n∑iφγ(Xi,Yi)}\sup_{P: D_c(P,P_n)\le\delta}\mathbb E_P[l] = \min_{\gamma\ge0}\{\gamma\delta + \frac1n\sum_i\varphi_\gamma(X_i,Y_i)\}supP:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δ​EP​[l]=minγ≥0​{γδ+n1​∑i​φγ​(Xi​,Yi​)} with φγ(z0)=sup⁡z{l(z)−γc(z,z0)}\varphi_\gamma(z_0) = \sup_z\{l(z) - \gamma c(z,z_0)\}φγ​(z0​)=supz​{l(z)−γc(z,z0​)}, for a lower semicontinuous cost vanishing on the diagonal, an upper semicontinuous loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  2. Logistic inner supremum (proof of Theorem 2, p. 30): sup⁡x{log⁡(1+e−y0βTx)−λ∥x−x0∥q}\sup_x\{\log(1+e^{-y_0\beta^T x}) - \lambda\|x - x_0\|_q\}supx​{log(1+e−y0​βTx)−λ∥x−x0​∥q​} equals the loss at x0x_0x0​ if ∥β∥p≤λ\|\beta\|_p \le \lambda∥β∥p​≤λ and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  3. Logistic outer minimisation (p. 30): the infimum over λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 of δλ\delta\lambdaδλ plus the average of these suprema equals the regularized empirical loss.
  4. Hinge inner supremum (pp. 30–31) and 5. hinge outer minimisation (p. 31): the same two steps for the hinge loss.

Significance

The theorem identifies two standard estimators as exact solutions of a robust decision problem. Consequences: the penalty δ∥β∥p\delta\|\beta\|_pδ∥β∥p​ has a quantitative meaning (the adversary's transport budget), the regularization parameter can be chosen by the paper's robust Wasserstein profile instead of cross-validation, and the norm of the penalty is tied to the geometry of the perturbations (perturbations measured in ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ give an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ penalty). The same identity is the input of the paper's coverage bound (Proposition 6) for ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known. The formalization adds a precise statement of the objects involved (couplings with both marginals fixed, an infinite cost across labels, expectations of nonnegative losses with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]), a checked version of the duality step specialised to this cost, and the treatment of boundary cases (δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, β=0\beta = 0β=0, q∈{1,∞}q \in \{1,\infty\}q∈{1,∞}) that the paper does not discuss.

Difficulty

The identities are short once Proposition 1 is available, so the weight of the mission lies in two places. First, Proposition 1 itself is a strong duality theorem for optimal transport over all probability measures on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, with a cost that takes the value +∞+\infty+∞ and an unbounded loss, and with attainment of the dual minimum; it is quoted from Blanchet and Murthy (Math. Oper. Res. 2019) and not proved in this paper. The weak-duality inequality is routine; the reverse inequality requires constructing near-optimal distributions from the dual, which needs measurable selection of near-maximizers and does not follow from finite-dimensional convex duality. Second, the inner suprema require an exact Hölder-attainment argument for the pair of conjugate norms ℓp\ell_pℓp​ and ℓq\ell_qℓq​, including q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞, and for the hinge loss a minimax exchange over α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0,1]α∈[0,1]. Bypassing duality by a direct construction of the worst distribution is possible for the upper value but not obviously for the lower bound at the boundary λ=∥β∥p\lambda = \|\beta\|_pλ=∥β∥p​.

Formalization scope

  • Predictors are Fin d → ℝ, a data point is (Fin d → ℝ) × ℝ with the product Borel σ-algebra, and samples are indexed by Fin n with 0 < n. Labels are real numbers with the hypothesis Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, which Theorem 2 inherits from Example 2; the cost NqN_qNq​ is defined on all of Rd×R\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb RRd×R.
  • The ℓq\ell_qℓq​ norm is the norm of PiLp q, with q p : ℝ≥0∞ and p.HolderConjugate q; q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ are included, and no further restriction on qqq is imposed.
  • The transport cost is an infimum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures on Z×ZZ\times ZZ×Z with both marginals fixed. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of the nonnegative losses, and the worst case is a supremum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures. The empirical distribution is the published platform definition WassersteinDRO.Regularization.empiricalDistribution.
  • Readings. The paper prints the SVM identity without inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on the right; the goal states the per-β\betaβ identities (what the proof establishes) and the identities of infima with inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on both sides. The proof's displays write the transport norm as ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ and the penalty as ∥β∥q\|\beta\|_q∥β∥q​, the reverse of the theorem; milestones use the theorem's convention. The logistic chain's printed indicators 1{λ>∥β∥}\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda>\|\beta\|\}}1{λ>∥β∥}​, ∞1{λ≤∥β∥}\infty\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda\le\|\beta\|\}}∞1{λ≤∥β∥}​ should read ≥\ge≥ and <<<; the stated end-to-end identity is unaffected. Proposition 1 is stated with a fixed nonnegative loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a cost infimum over sub-probability couplings or with one marginal free, or a Bochner expectation that vanishes on non-integrable laws, would make the worst case +∞+\infty+∞ or 000; the definitions here fix both marginals, use probability measures only and integrate in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. At δ=0\delta = 0δ=0 the ball is {Pn}\{P_n\}{Pn​} and both sides reduce to the empirical loss.
  • Infrastructure needed: optimal-transport duality with extended-valued lower semicontinuous costs (reusable well beyond this mission), Hölder equality cases for PiLp, and calculus for the logistic function. Contributions to any of these are welcome, as are proofs of the inner suprema, which are independent of Proposition 1.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, NIPS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VIII: No Black-Box Method Beats 3β‖x₁ − x*‖²/(32(t + 1)²) on β-Smooth Convex FunctionsTextbook

Why lower bounds for first-order methods

Upper bounds for an optimization method say how fast it converges; oracle complexity lower bounds say how fast any method of a given kind can possibly converge. Chapter 3 of S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4), 2015, arXiv:1405.4980) proves upper bounds for subgradient descent on Lipschitz functions and for gradient methods on smooth functions. Section 3.5 (Lower bounds, pp. 279–283) shows that these rates cannot be improved by more than a numerical constant, as long as the number of queries is smaller than the dimension. For smooth convex functions the matching lower bound is what identifies Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent, with its 1/t21/t^21/t2 rate, as an optimal method.

Timeline. The lower bounds first appeared in A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization (Wiley, 1983). The presentation followed by the book, with an explicit tridiagonal quadratic as the hard instance and the "span of past gradients" restriction on the method, is that of Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization (Kluwer, 2004), §2.1.2. Nesterov's accelerated method (1983) attains the matching upper bound.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean inner product x⊤yx^\top yx⊤y, coordinates x(1),…,x(n)x(1),\dots,x(n)x(1),…,x(n), canonical basis e1,…,ene_1,\dots,e_ne1​,…,en​ and balls B2(R)={x:∥x∥≤R}\mathrm B_2(R)=\{x:\|x\|\le R\}B2​(R)={x:∥x∥≤R}. A first-order oracle for fff answers a query xxx with a subgradient g∈∂f(x)g\in\partial f(x)g∈∂f(x) (the gradient when fff is differentiable). A black-box procedure maps the history (x1,g1,…,xt,gt)(x_1,g_1,\dots,x_t,g_t)(x1​,g1​,…,xt​,gt​) to the next query xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​. Section 3.5 restricts attention to procedures with

x1=0,xt+1∈Span(g1,…,gt)(t≥0),(3.15)x_1=0,\qquad x_{t+1}\in\mathrm{Span}(g_1,\dots,g_t)\quad(t\ge0), \tag{3.15}x1​=0,xt+1​∈Span(g1​,…,gt​)(t≥0),(3.15)

which covers gradient descent, its accelerated variants and conjugate gradient. A function is β\betaβ-smooth if its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz; LLL-Lipschitz on X\mathcal XX if every subgradient at every point of X\mathcal XX has norm at most LLL; α\alphaα-strongly convex if x↦f(x)−α2∥x∥2x\mapsto f(x)-\frac\alpha2\|x\|^2x↦f(x)−2α​∥x∥2 is convex.

The hard smooth instance uses, for k≤nk\le nk≤n, the symmetric tridiagonal matrix AkA_kAk​ with entries 222 on the first kkk diagonal positions and −1-1−1 on the neighbouring off-diagonal positions of the leading k×kk\times kk×k block, zero elsewhere, and the quadratics

fk(x)=β8x⊤Akx−β4x⊤e1,fk∗=inf⁡x∈Rnfk(x).f_k(x)=\frac\beta8x^\top A_kx-\frac\beta4x^\top e_1 ,\qquad f_k^*=\inf_{x\in\mathbb R^n}f_k(x).fk​(x)=8β​x⊤Ak​x−4β​x⊤e1​,fk∗​=x∈Rninf​fk​(x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.14 (p. 282)

For 1≤t≤n−121\le t\le\frac{n-1}21≤t≤2n−1​ and β>0\beta>0β>0 there are a β\betaβ-smooth convex fff and a minimizer x∗x^*x∗ such that every procedure satisfying (3.15) has

min⁡1≤s≤tf(xs)−f(x∗) ≥ 3β32 ∥x1−x∗∥2(t+1)2.\min_{1\le s\le t}f(x_s)-f(x^*)\ \ge\ \frac{3\beta}{32}\,\frac{\|x_1-x^*\|^2}{(t+1)^2}.1≤s≤tmin​f(xs​)−f(x∗) ≥ 323β​(t+1)2∥x1​−x∗∥2​.

The constant 3/323/323/32 is the book's.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 3.14, pp. 282–283)

  1. 0⪯Ak⪯4In0\preceq A_k\preceq4I_n0⪯Ak​⪯4In​, through x⊤Akx=x(1)2+x(k)2+∑i=1k−1(x(i)−x(i+1))2x^\top A_kx=x(1)^2+x(k)^2+\sum_{i=1}^{k-1}(x(i)-x(i+1))^2x⊤Ak​x=x(1)2+x(k)2+∑i=1k−1​(x(i)−x(i+1))2.
  2. For f=f2t+1f=f_{2t+1}f=f2t+1​ and any procedure satisfying (3.15), xs∈Span(e1,…,es−1)x_s\in\mathrm{Span}(e_1,\dots,e_{s-1})xs​∈Span(e1​,…,es−1​); hence f(xs)=fs(xs)f(x_s)=f_s(x_s)f(xs​)=fs​(xs​) for s≤ts\le ts≤t.
  3. xk∗(i)=1−ik+1x_k^*(i)=1-\frac i{k+1}xk∗​(i)=1−k+1i​ solves Akx=e1A_kx=e_1Ak​x=e1​, minimizes fkf_kfk​, and fk∗=−β8(1−1k+1)f_k^*=-\frac\beta8\bigl(1-\frac1{k+1}\bigr)fk∗​=−8β​(1−k+11​).
  4. ∥xk∗∥2≤k+13\|x_k^*\|^2\le\frac{k+1}3∥xk∗​∥2≤3k+1​.
  5. ft∗−f2t+1∗=β8(1t+1−12t+2)≥3β32∥x2t+1∗∥2(t+1)2f_t^*-f_{2t+1}^*=\frac\beta8\bigl(\frac1{t+1}-\frac1{2t+2}\bigr)\ge\frac{3\beta}{32}\frac{\|x^*_{2t+1}\|^2}{(t+1)^2}ft∗​−f2t+1∗​=8β​(t+11​−2t+21​)≥323β​(t+1)2∥x2t+1∗​∥2​.

Companion: Theorem 3.13 (p. 280)

For 1≤t≤n1\le t\le n1≤t≤n and L,R>0L,R>0L,R>0 there are a convex fff, LLL-Lipschitz on B2(R)\mathrm B_2(R)B2​(R), and a first-order oracle for it such that every procedure satisfying (3.15) has min⁡s≤tf(xs)−min⁡B2(R)f≥RL2(1+t)\min_{s\le t}f(x_s)-\min_{\mathrm B_2(R)}f\ge\frac{RL}{2(1+\sqrt t)}mins≤t​f(xs​)−minB2​(R)​f≥2(1+t​)RL​; and for α>0\alpha>0α>0 there are an α\alphaα-strongly convex fff, LLL-Lipschitz on B2(L2α)\mathrm B_2(\frac L{2\alpha})B2​(2αL​), and an oracle with gap at least L28αt\frac{L^2}{8\alpha t}8αtL2​ over that ball.

Significance

The upper bounds of Chapter 3 (projected subgradient descent at rate RL/tRL/\sqrt tRL/t​, accelerated gradient descent at rate β∥x1−x∗∥2/t2\beta\|x_1-x^*\|^2/t^2β∥x1​−x∗∥2/t2) become optimal statements only through these lower bounds: no method in the class (3.15) can be faster by more than a constant factor while ttt is below the dimension. The restriction to t≲nt\lesssim nt≲n is necessary, since Chapter 2's cutting-plane methods converge exponentially once the number of queries exceeds the dimension.

The results are classical and proved. Formalizing them yields machine-checked versions of the quadratic-form computation for the tridiagonal matrix, of the Krylov-type support argument under (3.15), and of the explicit minimizer of fkf_kfk​, each reusable in other lower-bound arguments (Theorem 3.15 in ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​, lower bounds for strongly convex smooth functions, conjugate gradient analyses). The platform held no formal statement of these oracle lower bounds when this mission was drafted.

Difficulty

Each analytic step is elementary; the difficulty is in the bookkeeping. The span argument is an induction that must track, at each step, that the gradient of a tridiagonal quadratic at a vector supported on the first s−1s-1s−1 coordinates is supported on the first sss, and that the span hypothesis transfers this to the next query. The minimizer computation requires solving Akx=e1A_kx=e_1Ak​x=e1​ on the leading block and showing that the coordinates beyond kkk do not affect fkf_kfk​. A natural first attempt, choosing the hard function after seeing the procedure, proves a much weaker statement and is excluded by the quantifier order: the function is fixed first and must defeat every procedure.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Coordinates in Lean are 0-based; the definitions provide the book's 1-based coordinate coord x i and basis vector basisVec n i, and the matrix tridiag n k translates book index iii to Fin n index i−1i-1i−1. The query sequence starts at index 111. The oracle is a fixed map ggg, so (3.15) reads xt+1∈Span(g(x1),…,g(xt))x_{t+1}\in\mathrm{Span}(g(x_1),\dots,g(x_t))xt+1​∈Span(g(x1​),…,g(xt​)) with x1=0x_1=0x1​=0. In Theorem 3.14 the oracle is the gradient, given as a map with HasGradientAt everywhere; β\betaβ-smoothness is the Lipschitz bound on that map. In Theorem 3.13 the oracle is part of what is constructed, because the book's proof uses a specific "resisting" subgradient selection and the claim fails for an arbitrary one.

Committed conventions, each stated in the item's Formalization Note: the minimum over 1≤s≤t1\le s\le t1≤s≤t is the bound for every such sss, and t≥1t\ge1t≥1 is required; t≤(n−1)/2t\le(n-1)/2t≤(n−1)/2 is 2t+1≤n2t+1\le n2t+1≤n; the minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is existentially chosen together with fff (the hard function has many minimizers when 2t+1<n2t+1<n2t+1<n, and the bound is false for some of them); the minimum over a ball is the bound against every point of the ball; fk∗f_k^*fk∗​ is the real infimum, asserted to be attained.

A formalization that let the function depend on the procedure, dropped x1=0x_1=0x1​=0, or took the span over gradients at points other than the queries would state a different and weaker theorem; the statements here keep fff (and the oracle) before the universally quantified procedure.

Infrastructure needed: quadratic forms of explicit matrices on EuclideanSpace, gradients of quadratics, and span/support lemmas for EuclideanSpace.single-type vectors. Contributions of proofs for any milestone, and of the strongly convex ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ lower bound (Theorem 3.15, not included here), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
  • A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization, Wiley, 1983.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power of Robust Solutions in Two-Stage Stochastic and Adaptive Optimization Problems 1: For Symmetric Right-Hand-Side Uncertainty, the Robust Optimum Is at Most Twice the Stochastic OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Many planning problems are made in two stages: a first decision xxx (capacity, inventory, a network design) is fixed before an uncertain demand is revealed, and a second decision yyy (recourse, routing, overtime) is taken afterwards. Two-stage stochastic optimization models the demand as random and minimizes expected cost; its second stage is a whole policy ω↦y(ω)\omega\mapsto y(\omega)ω↦y(ω), and the problem is intractable in general, especially with integer variables (Dyer and Stougie, 2006). Robust optimization instead picks one static pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) that is feasible for every possible demand and minimizes its worst-case cost; it is a single deterministic mixed-integer program and needs no knowledge of the distribution (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski, 2002; Bertsimas and Sim, 2004).

The question this mission addresses is how much is lost by solving the robust problem in place of the stochastic one. Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) show that when only the right-hand side is uncertain, the uncertainty set is symmetric and the distribution is centred at its point of symmetry, the loss is at most a factor of two, and that this factor is tight.

Setting

Fix A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​ and nonnegative costs c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. A set Ω\OmegaΩ of scenarios carries a probability measure μ\muμ, and each scenario ω\omegaω has a right-hand side b(ω)∈R+mb(\omega)\in\mathbb R^m_+b(ω)∈R+m​. The uncertainty set is Ib(Ω)={b(ω):ω∈Ω}\mathcal I_b(\Omega)=\{b(\omega):\omega\in\Omega\}Ib​(Ω)={b(ω):ω∈Ω}. First-stage variables are nonnegative, with integer values on a designated set of coordinates; second-stage variables are nonnegative reals (p2=0p_2=0p2​=0).

The stochastic problem ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b), (1.1), chooses xxx and a policy y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅):

zStoch(b)=inf⁡ cTx+Eμ[dTy(ω)]s.t.Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)=\inf\ c^Tx+\mathbb E_\mu[d^Ty(\omega)]\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)\ \ \forall\omega\in\Omega .zStoch​(b)=inf cTx+Eμ​[dTy(ω)]s.t.Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.

The robust problem ΠRob(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)ΠRob​(b), (1.2), chooses one yyy for all scenarios:

zRob(b)=inf⁡ cTx+dTys.t.Ax+By≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)=\inf\ c^Tx+d^Ty\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By\ge b(\omega)\ \ \forall\omega\in\Omega .zRob​(b)=inf cTx+dTys.t.Ax+By≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.

A set PPP is symmetric (Definition 1.2) if there is u0∈Pu^0\in Pu0∈P with u0+z∈P  ⟺  u0−z∈Pu^0+z\in P\iff u^0-z\in Pu0+z∈P⟺u0−z∈P for all zzz; u0u^0u0 is its point of symmetry. Hypercubes, ellipsoids and norm balls are symmetric. A probability measure on a symmetric set is symmetric (Definition 1.4) if it gives a set and its reflection {2u0−x}\{2u^0-x\}{2u0−x} the same mass.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (p. 10)

If Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is symmetric with point of symmetry b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0), p2=0p_2=0p2​=0, and μ\muμ satisfies

Eμ[b(ω)] ≥ b(ω0)(2.1)\mathbb E_\mu[b(\omega)]\ \ge\ b(\omega^0)\qquad(2.1)Eμ​[b(ω)] ≥ b(ω0)(2.1)

then

zRob(b) ≤ 2⋅zStoch(b).z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\ \le\ 2\cdot z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b).zRob​(b) ≤ 2⋅zStoch​(b).

Milestones on the way

  • Lemma 2.2 (p. 12): the coordinatewise bounding box HHH of a symmetric set SSS is the smallest hypercube containing SSS.
  • Lemma 2.3 (p. 12): the centre x0x^0x0 of HHH is the point of symmetry of SSS, and x≤2x0x\le 2x^0x≤2x0 on SSS when S⊆R+nS\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+S⊆R+n​.
  • Eqs. (2.9)–(2.10) (p. 13): if (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) covers b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0) then (2x,2y)(2x,2y)(2x,2y) covers every b(ω)b(\omega)b(ω), so it is robust feasible.
  • p. 14 display: under (2.1), the mean second-stage decision Eμ[y(ω)]\mathbb E_\mu[y(\omega)]Eμ​[y(ω)] covers b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0).
  • Lemma 2.1 (p. 11): a symmetric probability measure has mean u0u^0u0, so it satisfies (2.1).
  • Theorem 2.7 (p. 21): the same bound zRob(b)≤2 zStoch(b)z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\le 2\,z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)zRob​(b)≤2zStoch​(b) when Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is convex and positive (contained in a symmetric subset of R+m\mathbb R^m_+R+m​ whose centre lies in Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω)).

Significance

The result. The robust problem is one mixed-integer program, independent of μ\muμ; the stochastic problem optimizes over policies and requires the distribution. Theorem 2.1 says that under symmetry the static robust solution (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) used in every scenario is a 2-approximation of the optimal expected cost, for every centred distribution at once. The companion results of the paper show the hypotheses matter: the bound is tight for symmetric sets, the gap is unbounded (at least n+1n+1n+1) on the non-symmetric simplex (Theorem 2.6), and unbounded when costs are uncertain as well (Theorem 3.1). The theorem also underlies later work on the power of static and affine policies in adaptive optimization (Bertsimas and Goyal, 2012).

Formalizing it. The theorem and its proof are published; nothing in this mission is open mathematics. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a reusable Lean model of two-stage stochastic and robust mixed-integer covering problems with arbitrary scenario spaces, extended-real optimal values and genuine expectations, together with the elementary geometry of point-symmetric sets. The same objects are used by the other missions of this series (the simplex and cost-uncertainty gaps, and the adaptability gap).

Difficulty

Each step of the published argument is short; the difficulty is in stating it at the right generality. The paper begins "consider an optimal solution" of ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b); optimal policies need not exist for an arbitrary scenario space, so the statement is about infima and every step must work for an arbitrary feasible pair. Passing from "Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω) for all ω\omegaω" to "Ax+B Eμ[y]≥Eμ[b]Ax+B\,\mathbb E_\mu[y]\ge\mathbb E_\mu[b]Ax+BEμ​[y]≥Eμ​[b]" needs integrability of the policy and of bbb and linearity of the Bochner integral through a matrix. The bound b(ω)≤2b(ω0)b(\omega)\le 2b(\omega^0)b(ω)≤2b(ω0) uses symmetry together with nonnegativity of the uncertainty set; symmetry alone does not give it. Integrality of the second stage breaks the argument, since Eμ[y(ω)]\mathbb E_\mu[y(\omega)]Eμ​[y(ω)] need not be integral.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin k → ℝ with the componentwise order, products A *ᵥ x and inner products c ⬝ᵥ x. The mixed-integer domain is "nonnegative with integer values on a set III of coordinates", which is the paper's R+n−p×Z+p\mathbb R^{n-p}_+\times\mathbb Z^p_+R+n−p​×Z+p​ up to relabelling.
  • Ω\OmegaΩ is an arbitrary measurable space with a probability measure; Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is Set.range b. Constraints hold for every scenario, not almost surely.
  • Second-stage policies are μ\muμ-integrable, and bbb is μ\muμ-integrable in every statement that uses (2.1). Without these, Lean's integral of a non-integrable function is 000 and (2.1) would degenerate.
  • zStochz_{\mathrm{Stoch}}zStoch​ and zRobz_{\mathrm{Rob}}zRob​ are infima in EReal, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when infeasible; no attainment is assumed. A real-valued infimum would return 000 on an infeasible robust problem and make the goal trivial; that formalization is ruled out.
  • The bounding box of (2.5)–(2.7) uses suprema and infima, with boundedness assumed where needed.
  • Corrections to the page: Lemma 2.3's inequality x≤2x0x\le 2x^0x≤2x0 is stated under S⊆R+nS\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+S⊆R+n​, which its proof uses and which holds in every application; Lemma 2.1 assumes the measure has a mean; Theorem 2.7 carries the standing assumption p2=0p_2=0p2​=0 of §2.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and the goal, and general lemmas on point-symmetric sets and on interchanging Bochner integrals with matrix–vector products, both reusable outside this mission.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power of robust solutions in two-stage stochastic and adaptive optimization problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0440 (cited from the authors' manuscript, MIT DSpace)
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust optimization — methodology and applications, Mathematical Programming 92, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101070100286
  • D. Bertsimas, M. Sim, The price of robustness, Operations Research 52(1), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0065
  • M. Dyer, L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Mathematical Programming 106, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0578-0
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VII: Conditional Gradient Descent (Frank–Wolfe) with γ_s = 2/(s + 1) Has Rate 2βR²/(t + 1) in Any NormTextbook

Motivation

Many constrained optimization problems in machine learning and statistics have a feasible set X\mathcal XX over which a linear function is cheap to minimize but a Euclidean projection is expensive: the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-ball, the simplex, the nuclear-norm ball, the convex hull of a combinatorial family. Projected gradient descent needs a projection at every step. Conditional gradient descent, introduced by Frank and Wolfe in 1956 for quadratic programming, replaces the projection by a call to a linear minimization oracle over X\mathcal XX, and its iterates are convex combinations of oracle outputs, which makes them sparse when X\mathcal XX is a polytope.

This mission is the seventh of a series formalizing S. Bubeck's monograph Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2015, arXiv:1405.4980v2). It covers Section 3.3, whose main result, Theorem 3.8, is the O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) rate of the method in the form given by Jaggi (2013), going back to Dunn and Harshbarger (1978).

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. For a linear form ggg on EEE, written v↦g⊤vv\mapsto g^\top vv↦g⊤v, the dual norm is ∥g∥∗=sup⁡∥v∥≤1g⊤v\|g\|_*=\sup_{\|v\|\le1}g^\top v∥g∥∗​=sup∥v∥≤1​g⊤v. Let X⊆E\mathcal X\subseteq EX⊆E be nonempty, compact and convex, with diameter R=sup⁡x,y∈X∥x−y∥R=\sup_{x,y\in\mathcal X}\|x-y\|R=supx,y∈X​∥x−y∥.

Let f:E→Rf:E\to\mathbb Rf:E→R be differentiable with gradient ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x), a linear form on EEE. For β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, fff is β-smooth with respect to ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ on X\mathcal XX if

∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥∗≤β∥x−y∥(x,y∈X).\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|_*\le\beta\|x-y\|\qquad(x,y\in\mathcal X).∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥∗​≤β∥x−y∥(x,y∈X).

A point x∗∈Xx^*\in\mathcal Xx∗∈X with f(x∗)=min⁡x∈Xf(x)f(x^*)=\min_{x\in\mathcal X}f(x)f(x∗)=minx∈X​f(x) is fixed throughout, and δt=f(xt)−f(x∗)\delta_t=f(x_t)-f(x^*)δt​=f(xt​)−f(x∗).

Given step sizes (γs)s≥1(\gamma_s)_{s\ge1}(γs​)s≥1​, a run of conditional gradient descent is a pair of sequences with x1∈Xx_1\in\mathcal Xx1​∈X and, for every t≥1t\ge1t≥1,

yt∈argmin⁡y∈X∇f(xt)⊤y(3.8),xt+1=(1−γt)xt+γtyt(3.9).y_t\in\operatorname*{argmin}_{y\in\mathcal X}\nabla f(x_t)^\top y\quad(3.8),\qquad x_{t+1}=(1-\gamma_t)x_t+\gamma_ty_t\quad(3.9).yt​∈y∈Xargmin​∇f(xt​)⊤y(3.8),xt+1​=(1−γt​)xt​+γt​yt​(3.9).

The minimizer yty_tyt​ need not be unique; any choice is allowed.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.8 (p. 272)

If fff is convex and β\betaβ-smooth with respect to ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and γs=2s+1\gamma_s=\frac{2}{s+1}γs​=s+12​ for s≥1s\ge1s≥1, then every run satisfies, for every t≥2t\ge2t≥2,

f(xt)−f(x∗)≤2βR2t+1.f(x_t)-f(x^*)\le\frac{2\beta R^2}{t+1}.f(xt​)−f(x∗)≤t+12βR2​.

Milestones

  1. Inequality (3.4) in an arbitrary norm (p. 267, used on p. 272): for x,y∈Xx,y\in\mathcal Xx,y∈X, 0≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤β2∥x−y∥20\le f(x)-f(y)-\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)\le\frac{\beta}{2}\|x-y\|^20≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤2β​∥x−y∥2.
  2. The one-step recursion (pp. 272–273): for any run with γs∈[0,1]\gamma_s\in[0,1]γs​∈[0,1],
δs+1≤(1−γs)δs+β2γs2R2.\delta_{s+1}\le(1-\gamma_s)\delta_s+\frac{\beta}{2}\gamma_s^2R^2 .δs+1​≤(1−γs​)δs​+2β​γs2​R2.
  1. Initialization (p. 273): if γ1=1\gamma_1=1γ1​=1, then δ2≤β2R2\delta_2\le\frac{\beta}{2}R^2δ2​≤2β​R2.
  2. The induction (p. 273): a real sequence with δ2≤β2R2\delta_2\le\frac{\beta}{2}R^2δ2​≤2β​R2 and the recursion of milestone 2 with γs=2s+1\gamma_s=\frac{2}{s+1}γs​=s+12​ for s≥2s\ge2s≥2 satisfies δt≤2βR2t+1\delta_t\le\frac{2\beta R^2}{t+1}δt​≤t+12βR2​ for t≥2t\ge2t≥2.

Significance

Theorem 3.8 is the basic guarantee for projection-free first-order optimization. Its rate does not depend on the dimension, and it depends on the geometry only through the product βR2\beta R^2βR2, both measured in the same norm, which may be chosen to fit X\mathcal XX: for the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-ball, smoothness in ∥⋅∥1\|\cdot\|_1∥⋅∥1​ with dual norm ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ gives much better constants than the Euclidean analysis. The book applies it this way to a LASSO-type problem (Section 3.3, pp. 274–276), and the same bound underlies the sparse-approximation corollary on the simplex (p. 273) and the many later variants of the method (away steps, stochastic and online conditional gradient).

The result is classical and proved in the book. What this mission adds is a machine-checked statement and proof in an arbitrary finite-dimensional normed space, with the dual norm as the operator norm on linear forms, and a reusable encoding of norm-smoothness and of conditional gradient runs. On Prove2Me a related result is already proved: Lan's Theorem 7.1 (First-order and Stochastic Optimization Methods), which bounds f(yk)−f∗f(y_k)-f^*f(yk​)−f∗ by 2Lk(k+1)∑i≤k∥xi−yi−1∥2\frac{2L}{k(k+1)}\sum_{i\le k}\|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2k(k+1)2L​∑i≤k​∥xi​−yi−1​∥2 with a different indexing; after the diameter bound it yields 2βR2/t2\beta R^2/t2βR2/t at Bubeck's iterate xtx_txt​, which is weaker than Theorem 3.8 by one step.

Difficulty

The difficulty is in the bookkeeping of norms and indices, not in a deep idea. Inequality (3.4) is proved in the book only for the Euclidean norm, where ∇f(x)∈Rn\nabla f(x)\in\mathbb R^n∇f(x)∈Rn and the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality is used; in a general norm it needs the pairing between a linear form and a vector and the bound ∣g⊤v∣≤∥g∥∗∥v∥|g^\top v|\le\|g\|_*\|v\|∣g⊤v∣≤∥g∥∗​∥v∥. The rate 2βR2/(t+1)2\beta R^2/(t+1)2βR2/(t+1) is attained only by starting the induction at t=2t=2t=2, where the step γ1=1\gamma_1=1γ1​=1 erases the dependence on the starting point; at t=1t=1t=1 the bound can fail, since δ1\delta_1δ1​ is arbitrary. A first attempt that runs the induction from t=1t=1t=1 with an arbitrary δ1\delta_1δ1​ does not give the stated constant.

Formalization scope

EEE is a type with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E]; nothing is specialised to the Euclidean norm. The gradient is an explicit derivative map f' : E → (E →L[ℝ] ℝ) with HasFDerivAt f (f' x) x for every x; ∇f(x)⊤v\nabla f(x)^\top v∇f(x)⊤v is f' x v, and ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​ is the operator norm, which equals sup⁡∥v∥≤1g⊤v\sup_{\|v\|\le1}g^\top vsup∥v∥≤1​g⊤v. RRR is Metric.diam X, which equals the supremum of ∥x−y∥\|x-y\|∥x−y∥ over X\mathcal XX because X\mathcal XX is compact. Sequences are indexed by ℕ with the first iterate at index 1.

Committed conventions: X\mathcal XX compact, convex and containing x∗x^*x∗ (hence nonempty); convexity of fff and the Lipschitz bound on the gradient are assumed on X\mathcal XX only, which is weaker than the book's global assumptions; β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0; the existence of the minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is the book's standing assumption (p. 242); the conclusion is stated for t≥2t\ge2t≥2, as in the book. Runs are predicates: yty_tyt​ is any minimizer of the linear form over X\mathcal XX and yt∈Xy_t\in\mathcal Xyt​∈X is required, so the goal quantifies over every run with γs=2/(s+1)\gamma_s=2/(s+1)γs​=2/(s+1). A formalization in which yty_tyt​ need not lie in X\mathcal XX, or in which smoothness is assumed only along the iterates, states a different theorem and is excluded.

A complete development needs the descent inequality (3.4) for Fréchet derivatives in a normed space (reusable for every smooth method in the series and beyond), the fact that the iterates stay in X\mathcal XX, and a scalar induction. Proofs of the milestones are welcome independently; milestone 4 is a statement about real sequences only.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
  • M. Frank and P. Wolfe, An algorithm for quadratic programming, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3(1–2):95–110, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030109
  • J. C. Dunn and S. Harshbarger, Conditional gradient algorithms with open loop step size rules, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 62(2):432–444, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(78)90137-3
  • M. Jaggi, Revisiting Frank–Wolfe: projection-free sparse convex optimization, Proceedings of ICML 2013, PMLR 28(1):427–435. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v28/jaggi13.html
  • G. Lan, First-order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer, 2020, Theorem 7.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VI: Gradient Descent with η = 2/(α + β) on a β-Smooth α-Strongly Convex Function Has Rate (β/2)exp(−4t/(κ + 1))‖x₁ − x*‖²Textbook

Motivation

Gradient descent is a basic method for minimizing a differentiable function when evaluating its gradient is practical but solving the optimization problem directly is not. The rate at which its iterates approach an optimizer depends on the assumptions about the function. For a convex function with a Lipschitz gradient, the value error decreases at a sublinear rate. Adding strong convexity changes the behavior: the distance from the optimizer contracts at each step, giving an exponential bound on the value error. This section of Bubeck's monograph identifies a fixed step size that uses both the smoothness and curvature constants and gives the corresponding rate.

The result matters when a high-accuracy answer is needed. A sublinear bound makes each extra digit progressively more expensive; an exponential bound says that a fixed number of additional gradient evaluations reduces the error by a fixed factor. The theorem is a textbook result, already proved mathematically. This mission asks for its precise machine-checked statement and the source's supporting inequalities, rather than for a new optimization method.

Setting

Work in Euclidean space Rn\mathbb R^nRn with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, equipped with its usual inner product and norm. A differentiable function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R has gradient g(x)=∇f(x)g(x)=\nabla f(x)g(x)=∇f(x). It is β\betaβ-smooth when its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz: ∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥\|g(x)-g(y)\|\le\beta\|x-y\|∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥ for every x,yx,yx,y. It is α\alphaα-strongly convex when, for every x,yx,yx,y,

f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+α2∥y−x∥2.f(y)\ge f(x)+\langle g(x),y-x\rangle+\frac\alpha2\|y-x\|^2.f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+2α​∥y−x∥2.

The first condition limits how rapidly the gradient changes. The second gives a quadratic lower bound on the function around any point. Here α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0. In positive dimension, the two conditions together entail β≥α\beta\ge\alphaβ≥α, so the condition number κ=β/α\kappa=\beta/\alphaκ=β/α is at least one. The case α=β\alpha=\betaα=β remains part of the target.

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a global minimizer when f(x∗)≤f(y)f(x^*)\le f(y)f(x∗)≤f(y) for every yyy. The book assumes such a point exists as a standing convention. A gradient descent run is a sequence (xt)t≥1(x_t)_{t\ge1}(xt​)t≥1​ satisfying xt+1=xt−ηg(xt)x_{t+1}=x_t-\eta g(x_t)xt+1​=xt​−ηg(xt​) at each positive index. Its first iterate x1x_1x1​ is arbitrary. The step size in this mission is fixed at η=2/(α+β)\eta=2/(\alpha+\beta)η=2/(α+β), rather than chosen by line search or adapted along the run.

Formalization targets

The central target is Theorem 3.12 of Bubeck, p. 279. For every integer t≥0t\ge0t≥0, the gradient descent run satisfies

f(xt+1)−f(x∗)≤β2exp⁡ ⁣(−4tκ+1)∥x1−x∗∥2.f(x_{t+1})-f(x^*)\le \frac\beta2\exp\!\left(-\frac{4t}{\kappa+1}\right)\|x_1-x^*\|^2.f(xt+1​)−f(x∗)≤2β​exp(−κ+14t​)∥x1​−x∗∥2.

At t=0t=0t=0 this is a smoothness bound on the initial value gap. For subsequent iterations it gives a linear convergence rate with the explicit exponential factor stated in the book. No initial-radius bound or bounded domain is imposed: the actual squared distance ∥x1−x∗∥2\|x_1-x^*\|^2∥x1​−x∗∥2 appears in the conclusion.

The milestones trace the mathematical claims stated in the source. Equation (3.6) is the co-coercivity inequality for gradients of convex smooth functions. The proof of Lemma 3.11 introduces ϕ(z)=f(z)−(α/2)∥z∥2\phi(z)=f(z)-(\alpha/2)\|z\|^2ϕ(z)=f(z)−(α/2)∥z∥2, and identifies it as convex and (β−α)(\beta-\alpha)(β−α)-smooth. Lemma 3.11 combines curvature and smoothness into a sharper inequality for two gradients. The proof of Theorem 3.12 then gives a value-gap bound, a one-step distance contraction, and its iterated exponential form. These statements are separately useful: the co-coercivity and contraction bounds can be reused in analyses of related first-order methods.

Significance

The theorem states a complete guarantee for the algorithm: an explicit rule, the hypotheses on the objective, and a bound valid for every iteration count. It makes the role of κ\kappaκ visible. When κ\kappaκ is close to one, the contraction is strong; when the smoothness constant is much larger than the curvature constant, more iterations are needed for the same error reduction. The stated dependence supports comparisons with projected and accelerated gradient methods elsewhere in the same monograph.

Formalizing the result requires a common interface for actual gradients, smoothness, strong convexity, and algorithm runs. The strong-convexity predicate is an existing published definition, while the local smoothness and run definitions use Bubeck's conventions. Once these interfaces and the inequalities are proved, later missions can use the resulting declarations to compare rates without translating between informal meanings of “smooth” or changing the iterate index. The source provides a mathematical proof; these draft Lean theorems carry sorry and do not yet constitute machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

The main issue is getting the sharp contraction factor from two assumptions that control different parts of the gradient step. A direct Lipschitz estimate on the update map does not by itself express the mixed inner-product term with the constants needed for the stated factor. Lemma 3.11 is the source's precise bridge between the gradient difference, the point displacement, and their inner product. The case α=β\alpha=\betaα=β also needs to remain valid: a proof route that divides by β−α\beta-\alphaβ−α cannot cover that boundary by the same calculation.

The last display in the proof of Theorem 3.12 joins a one-step inequality involving xtx_txt​ to an exponential inequality involving x1x_1x1​. The latter is the cumulative statement after ttt steps. Keeping these as separate milestones makes each quantified claim explicit while preserving the theorem's bound.

Formalization scope

Lean represents Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with n>0n>0n>0. The gradient is an explicit map ggg required to be the actual gradient of fff at every point. Smoothness is the gradient Lipschitz condition, not a quadratic upper bound used as a definition. Strong convexity uses the published OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics.StronglyConvexOn predicate on the whole space; its formula is the book's (3.13). Iterates are indexed from one, and index zero imposes no condition. The norm, inner product, constants, and real exponential follow the printed formulas.

The added explicit conditions are n>0n>0n>0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, and β>0\beta>0β>0 where Equation (3.6) divides by β\betaβ. Positive dimension excludes a degenerate space where curvature imposes no restriction on smoothness. The positivity of α\alphaα makes κ\kappaκ meaningful; the source treats it as a positive strong-convexity parameter. The minimizer hypothesis is the book's standing convention. There is no assumption that g(x∗)=0g(x^*)=0g(x∗)=0: that property follows from global minimality and differentiability. A gradient map unrelated to fff would trivialize the model, so the smoothness definition includes the gradient identity.

The local development needs Euclidean inner-product identities, convexity, differentiability, Lipschitz gradient bounds, and real exponential estimates. The auxiliary function and the two co-coercivity inequalities are reusable outside this chapter. Contributions should prove the exact milestone statements and the final theorem, including t=0t=0t=0 and α=β\alpha=\betaα=β, without weakening constants or substituting another gradient descent step.

Selected references

  • Sébastien Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. arXiv:1405.4980v2; DOI:10.1561/2200000050.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Analysis of Stochastic Shortest Path Problems: If Every Improper Policy Has Infinite Cost, the Optimal Cost Is the Unique Fixed Point of Bellman's Operator and Value Iteration Converges to ItResearch Paper

Motivation

A shortest path problem asks how to reach a destination at minimum cost. In a stochastic shortest path problem, a decision at a state selects a probability distribution over successor states, so both the route and its total cost are random. Costs may have either sign. This makes the problem relevant to finite-state control models where rewards and expenses occur before eventual termination. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis analyze this setting without requiring all one-stage costs to be nonnegative or all to be nonpositive. Their condition instead rules out an improper stationary policy whose costs stay finite from every initial state. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 580–583.

Earlier treatments established Bellman-equation and algorithmic conclusions under positive or nonnegative costs. The 1991 paper traces the finite-control development from Eaton and Zadeh and the compact-control extension from Kushner, then removes the sign restriction while retaining finite state space. It also explains why the Bellman mapping need not contract when an improper policy is available. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 581, 585. A separate, proved Prove2Me theorem from Bertsekas's textbook treats the special case in which every policy is proper and controls are finite; the result here permits improper policies and compact control spaces.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 states. State 111 is the destination. At state iii, a control u∈U(i)u\in U(i)u∈U(i) incurs a real cost ci(u)c_i(u)ci​(u) and moves the process to state jjj with probability pij(u)p_{ij}(u)pij​(u). A selector μ\muμ chooses one control μ(i)\mu(i)μ(i) at every state. A policy π=(μ0,μ1,…)\pi=(\mu_0,\mu_1,\ldots)π=(μ0​,μ1​,…) may change selectors over time; a stationary policy repeats one selector. The matrix P(μ)P(\mu)P(μ) has entries pij(μ(i))p_{ij}(\mu(i))pij​(μ(i)), and c(μ)c(\mu)c(μ) is the vector of one-stage costs. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), p. 582.

The cost vector x(π)x(\pi)x(π) is the coordinatewise limit inferior of expected partial costs, including the possibility of infinite values. The optimal cost xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ is the infimum of xi(π)x_i(\pi)xi​(π) over all policies, including nonstationary ones. Optimality of a policy means it attains that infimum from every initial state. The fixed-selector operator is Tμ(x)=c(μ)+P(μ)xT_\mu(x)=c(\mu)+P(\mu)xTμ​(x)=c(μ)+P(μ)x; the Bellman operator TTT takes the coordinatewise infimum of these vectors over selectors. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 582–583, equations (2)–(6).

A stationary policy is proper when its probability of reaching state 111 tends to one from every starting state. Assumption 1 says state 111 is absorbing and cost-free, at least one proper stationary policy exists, and every improper stationary policy has a partial-cost coordinate tending to +∞+\infty+∞. Assumption 2 makes each control space compact, each cost function lower semicontinuous, and each transition-probability coordinate continuous. Work takes place in X={x∈Rn:x1=0}X=\{x\in\mathbb R^n:x_1=0\}X={x∈Rn:x1​=0}. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 583–584.

Formalization targets

Proposition 2: Bellman's equation and value iteration

Under Assumptions 1 and 2, the optimal cost is finite and is the unique fixed point of TTT in XXX. Every initial x∈Xx\in Xx∈X has

lim⁡t→∞Tt(x)=x∗.\lim_{t\to\infty}T^t(x)=x^*.t→∞lim​Tt(x)=x∗.

A stationary selector μ\muμ is optimal exactly when Tμ(x∗)=T(x∗)T_\mu(x^*)=T(x^*)Tμ​(x∗)=T(x∗); an optimal proper stationary selector exists. These are all clauses of Proposition 2, rather than separate targets selected from it. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), p. 586, Proposition 2.

Supporting results

The milestone list follows the source's Proposition 1, Lemmas 1–3, and the numbered equations used by their proof. Proposition 1 supplies a weighted maximum-norm contraction when every stationary policy is proper. Lemma 1 describes fixed costs of a proper policy and characterizes properness through a Bellman inequality. Lemma 2 gives continuity of TTT. Lemma 3 controls limits of proper policies; its second part detects a limit that becomes improper through diverging costs. Appendix equations (22) and (24), and the policy-improvement equation (15), provide the paper's intermediate targets. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 585–587, 591–592.

Significance

Proposition 2 identifies the cost of the best policy by a finite-dimensional Bellman equation even though the definition of optimal cost ranges over all, possibly nonstationary, policies. Its convergence clause justifies value iteration from any vector whose destination coordinate is zero. Its policy criterion and existence clause connect a fixed point to an implementable stationary decision rule. The paper applies these conclusions to successive approximation and policy iteration in §4. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 586, 590–591.

The paper proves these statements. This mission seeks machine-checked proofs of their exact finite-state formulation and of the listed intermediate results. The resulting finite stochastic-matrix, hitting, and policy-cost infrastructure can also support other undiscounted control problems. The related proved Prove2Me result for the all-proper finite-control case does not settle this mission's compact-control or improper-policy cases.

Difficulty

When every stationary policy is proper, a common weighted maximum norm makes the Bellman mapping contract. An improper policy can destroy this route: Figure 2 has an absorbing destination and satisfies both assumptions, yet T(0,x2)=(0,min⁡{1+x2,2})T(0,x_2)=(0,\min\{1+x_2,2\})T(0,x2​)=(0,min{1+x2​,2}) is not a contraction in any norm on XXX. The main result therefore needs a way to retain fixed-point uniqueness and convergence without a uniform contraction rate. Compactness matters because a sequence of proper selectors may converge to an improper selector; Lemma 3 explains the associated cost behavior. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 585–586, 591–595.

Formalization scope

States are Fin n, with the paper's state 111 represented by 0; the model requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1. A control set U(i)U(i)U(i) is a type with a metric, with compactness asserted for its whole carrier. Transition rows explicitly have nonnegative entries summing to one. These are the probability-vector conditions implicit in the word “probability.” Assumption 1 supplies a selector and therefore nonempty control sets. The paper writes T:Rn→RnT:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nT:Rn→Rn; where a theorem uses only Assumption 1, finite real Bellman infima are made explicit through TRealValued. Under Assumption 2, compactness and lower semicontinuity give real attained minima. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 582–584.

Policy costs and their infimum use extended reals so that an improper policy's +∞+\infty+∞ cost is represented without a default finite value. Proposition 2 concludes, rather than assumes, that x∗x^*x∗ has real coordinates. Its policy infimum ranges over every sequence of selectors. Matrix products use the identity at time zero; T0T^0T0 is the identity. The destination-zero restriction is retained in every fixed-point and iteration claim. Defining optimal cost as a Bellman fixed point, or restricting the infimum to stationary policies, would remove the result the paper proves. Solvers can contribute the finite-chain, matrix-inverse, semicontinuity, and convergence arguments needed by these targets.

Selected references

  • Dimitri P. Bertsekas and John N. Tsitsiklis, An Analysis of Stochastic Shortest Path Problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 16(3), 580–595, 1991. DOI.
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