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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record→≥ 0.526Open frontier
3 provers on it3 of 8 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.92027942Formalized record→≤ 1.920279408185Open frontier
5 provers on it9 of 11 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
42 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Estimating Variance From High, Low and Closing Prices I: S_t(S_t − X_t) + I_t(I_t − X_t) Has Mean σ²t for Brownian Motion With Any DriftResearch Paper

Motivation

The logarithm of a share price is commonly modelled as a Brownian motion with drift, Xt=σBt+ctX_t=\sigma B_t+ctXt​=σBt​+ct. The Black–Scholes option pricing formula needs the volatility σ\sigmaσ but not the drift ccc, so a practitioner must estimate σ2\sigma^2σ2 from data. Observing the whole path would give σ2\sigma^2σ2 exactly through its quadratic variation, but a real observer sees far less. The most readily available daily information is the opening and closing prices together with the day's high and low.

Parkinson (1980) proposed an estimator from the high–low range, and Garman and Klass (1980) found the minimum-variance estimator among a class of quadratic functions of high, low and close. Both were derived assuming zero drift, c=0c=0c=0, and the Garman–Klass estimator is biased when c≠0c\neq0c=0. Rogers and Satchell (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1 (1991) 504–512) proposed the estimator

σ^2≡S1(S1−X1)+I1(I1−X1),\hat\sigma^2\equiv S_1(S_1-X_1)+I_1(I_1-X_1),σ^2≡S1​(S1​−X1​)+I1​(I1​−X1​),

which is unbiased for every drift. Their estimator is now a standard tool in empirical finance for range-based volatility measurement.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) carrying a standard Brownian motion B=(Bt)t≥0B=(B_t)_{t\ge0}B=(Bt​)t≥0​: B0=0B_0=0B0​=0, its increments over disjoint intervals are independent and Gaussian with variance equal to the length of the interval, and every sample path t↦Bt(ω)t\mapsto B_t(\omega)t↦Bt​(ω) is continuous. Fix a drift c∈Rc\in\mathbb Rc∈R and a volatility σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0. The log-price is

Xt=σBt+ct,t≥0,X_t=\sigma B_t+ct,\qquad t\ge0,Xt​=σBt​+ct,t≥0,

and, for a trading period [0,t][0,t][0,t], the running maximum and running minimum are

St=sup⁡0≤u≤tXu,It=inf⁡0≤u≤tXu.S_t=\sup_{0\le u\le t}X_u,\qquad I_t=\inf_{0\le u\le t}X_u.St​=0≤u≤tsup​Xu​,It​=0≤u≤tinf​Xu​.

Thus StS_tSt​, ItI_tIt​ and XtX_tXt​ are the high, the low and the close of the log-price (with the open normalized to X0=0X_0=0X0​=0). In Lean these are logPrice σ c B t ω, runMax σ c B t ω and runMin σ c B t ω in the namespace RogersSatchell.Unbiased.

The proof in the paper passes through an exponential time: a random variable TTT with P(T>x)=e−λxP(T>x)=e^{-\lambda x}P(T>x)=e−λx (rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, mean λ−1\lambda^{-1}λ−1), independent of the whole path BBB. For σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 the rates

α=c2+2λσ2−cσ2,β=c2+2λσ2+cσ2\alpha=\frac{\sqrt{c^2+2\lambda\sigma^2}-c}{\sigma^2},\qquad \beta=\frac{\sqrt{c^2+2\lambda\sigma^2}+c}{\sigma^2}α=σ2c2+2λσ2​−c​,β=σ2c2+2λσ2​+c​

appear, in Lean alpha σ c lam and beta σ c lam.

Formalization targets

Goal: display (3)

For every c∈Rc\in\mathbb Rc∈R, every σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0 and every t≥0t\ge0t≥0, St(St−Xt)+It(It−Xt)S_t(S_t-X_t)+I_t(I_t-X_t)St​(St​−Xt​)+It​(It​−Xt​) is integrable and

E[St(St−Xt)+It(It−Xt)]=σ2t.E\big[S_t(S_t-X_t)+I_t(I_t-X_t)\big]=\sigma^2t.E[St​(St​−Xt​)+It​(It​−Xt​)]=σ2t.

At t=1t=1t=1 this is the unbiasedness of σ^2\hat\sigma^2σ^2 of display (2). The statement quantifies over all drifts; the absence of ccc on the right-hand side is the content.

Milestones (Section 2, pp. 505–506)

  1. At an independent exponential time TTT of rate λ\lambdaλ: ST∼Exp⁡(α)S_T\sim\operatorname{Exp}(\alpha)ST​∼Exp(α) and −IT∼Exp⁡(β)-I_T\sim\operatorname{Exp}(\beta)−IT​∼Exp(β).
  2. The Wiener–Hopf splitting: STS_TST​ and ST−XTS_T-X_TST​−XT​ are independent, and ST−XTS_T-X_TST​−XT​ has the law of −IT-I_T−IT​.
  3. E[ST(ST−XT)]=1/(αβ)=σ2/2λE[S_T(S_T-X_T)]=1/(\alpha\beta)=\sigma^2/2\lambdaE[ST​(ST​−XT​)]=1/(αβ)=σ2/2λ.
  4. E[ST(ST−XT)]=∫0∞λe−λt E[St(St−Xt)] dtE[S_T(S_T-X_T)]=\int_0^\infty\lambda e^{-\lambda t}\,E[S_t(S_t-X_t)]\,dtE[ST​(ST​−XT​)]=∫0∞​λe−λtE[St​(St​−Xt​)]dt.
  5. E[St(St−Xt)]=σ2t/2E[S_t(S_t-X_t)]=\sigma^2t/2E[St​(St​−Xt​)]=σ2t/2 for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0.
  6. E[It(It−Xt)]=σ2t/2E[I_t(I_t-X_t)]=\sigma^2t/2E[It​(It​−Xt​)]=σ2t/2 for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0.
  7. (off the goal's path) With Y1=S1(S1−X1)Y_1=S_1(S_1-X_1)Y1​=S1​(S1​−X1​), Y2=I1(I1−X1)Y_2=I_1(I_1-X_1)Y2​=I1​(I1​−X1​): EY12=EY22=σ4/2E Y_1^2=EY_2^2=\sigma^4/2EY12​=EY22​=σ4/2, E(Y1+Y2)2≤2σ4E(Y_1+Y_2)^2\le2\sigma^4E(Y1​+Y2​)2≤2σ4 and var⁡(σ^2)≤σ4\operatorname{var}(\hat\sigma^2)\le\sigma^4var(σ^2)≤σ4, for every drift ccc.

Significance

The goal certifies a drift-free unbiased volatility estimator built from four numbers per trading day. Because only σ2\sigma^2σ2 enters the Black–Scholes formula, an estimator whose mean does not depend on the nuisance parameter ccc is exactly what is needed. Milestone 7 complements this with a drift-uniform bound on its variance, var⁡(σ^2)≤σ4\operatorname{var}(\hat\sigma^2)\le\sigma^4var(σ^2)≤σ4, while the exact value 0.331σ40.331\sigma^40.331σ4 quoted in the paper is only available at c=0c=0c=0.

On the formalization side, the results are classical and proved; none is machine-checked as far as the platform's catalog shows. A complete development would give the first formal treatment of the joint law of the running maximum of drifted Brownian motion at an exponential time, of the Wiener–Hopf splitting at the maximum, and of a Laplace-inversion argument for a moment function of the time horizon. All three are reusable well beyond volatility estimation: in ruin theory, queueing (reflected Brownian motion), and the pricing of lookback and barrier options.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, computing E[St(St−Xt)]E[S_t(S_t-X_t)]E[St​(St​−Xt​)] directly from the joint density of (St,Xt)(S_t,X_t)(St​,Xt​) for drifted Brownian motion, requires the reflection principle combined with a Girsanov change of measure, followed by a double integral involving Gaussian tails, done separately for each sign of ccc. The cancellation that makes the drift disappear is not visible in that computation, and a statement specialized to c=0c=0c=0 (where the reflection principle alone suffices) does not carry over. Every step of the milestone list rests on path properties of Brownian motion (the strong Markov property, the law of the running maximum, splitting at the maximum) that Mathlib does not yet provide for IsBrownianReal, and the passage from milestone 4 to milestone 5 needs uniqueness of the Laplace transform.

Formalization scope

  • Brownian motion is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.IsBrownianReal B P with B : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ, plus the hypothesis that every sample path is continuous (the standard choice of a continuous version). Time is ℝ≥0.
  • StS_tSt​ and ItI_tIt​ are the real sSup/sInf of the path over the interval [0,t][0,t][0,t]; with continuous paths they are attained. The supremum is never taken over all times or in extended reals.
  • "EEE" is the Bochner integral, and every expectation identity also asserts integrability, so no identity can hold through Lean's convention that a non-integrable function integrates to 000.
  • "TTT exponential with mean λ−1\lambda^{-1}λ−1" is HasLaw T (expMeasure λ) P; "parameter α\alphaα" is read as rate α\alphaα. "Independent of BBB" is independence from the path-valued random variable with the product σ-algebra. STS_TST​ is evaluated at TTT truncated to [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  • "Has the same law as" is equality of image measures, together with the almost-everywhere measurability of both maps.
  • "Inversion of the Laplace transform gives" becomes the fixed-time identity for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 (milestones 5 and 6), separate from the Laplace identity (milestone 4).
  • Milestones 1 and 3 assume σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 because α,β\alpha,\betaα,β divide by σ2\sigma^2σ2; the Wiener–Hopf splitting, the goal, and milestones 4–7 allow σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0.

A formalization that specializes to c=0c=0c=0, takes the supremum over all of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), or omits the integrability conjuncts is not the statement of this mission.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs: the reflection principle or the strong Markov property for Brownian motion, the exponential-time law of the running maximum of a Lévy process, and uniqueness of Laplace transforms for continuous functions. All of these are reusable; contributions of any of them are welcome. Related platform items cover other objects and are credited here: running maxima and exit problems for spectrally negative Lévy processes (Avram2004.Exit.reflected), a drifted Brownian motion in characteristic-function form in a queueing-network setting (Reiman84.QueueLength.Paths), and a GI/G/1 Wiener–Hopf transform identity (QueueingFundamentals.GG1.wiener_hopf_transform).

Selected references

  • L. C. G. Rogers and S. E. Satchell, Estimating variance from high, low and closing prices, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(4), 1991, 504–512. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005835
  • M. B. Garman and M. J. Klass, On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data, Journal of Business 53(1), 1980, 67–78. https://doi.org/10.1086/296072
  • M. Parkinson, The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return, Journal of Business 53(1), 1980, 61–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/296071
  • P. Greenwood and J. Pitman, Fluctuation identities for Lévy processes and splitting at the maximum, Advances in Applied Probability 12(4), 1980, 893–902. https://doi.org/10.2307/1426747
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationFunctional AnalysisOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Duality and Stability in Extremum Problems Involving Convex Functions 2: The Dual Supremum Equals the Lower Limit of the Perturbed Infimum, sup (P*) = lim inf_{z→0} inf (P(z))Research Paper

Motivation

A convex minimization problem comes with a dual maximization problem, and the dual value never exceeds the primal value. When the two values differ, a duality gap occurs. Dual bounds, Lagrangian relaxations and optimality certificates are then weaker than hoped. Conditions that rule the gap out are constraint qualifications such as Slater's condition and Rockafellar's notion of a stably set problem. Such conditions say when the gap vanishes, but not what the dual value is when it does not.

R. T. Rockafellar's 1967 paper answers that question for the Fenchel-type pair of problems built from a convex function, a concave function and a continuous linear map between infinite-dimensional spaces. Its Theorem 6 (§6, "Weak duality theorems", pp. 179–180) "explains the exact way in which inf (P) and sup (P*) can fail to be equal", by expressing the dual value through the primal problem alone: the dual supremum is the lower limit of the optimal values of slightly perturbed primal problems. This perturbational view of duality was later developed in Rockafellar's Conjugate Duality and Optimization (1974). It underlies the modern treatment of value functions in convex optimization.

Setting

Two real vector spaces EEE and E∗E^*E∗ are topologically paired when each carries a locally convex Hausdorff topology, they are in duality under a bilinear form ⟨x,x∗⟩\langle x,x^*\rangle⟨x,x∗⟩ that is continuous in each variable, and every continuous linear functional on either space is the pairing with exactly one element of the other. Let (E,E∗)(E,E^*)(E,E∗) and (F,F∗)(F,F^*)(F,F∗) be two such pairs. Let A:E→FA:E\to FA:E→F be continuous linear and A∗:F∗→E∗A^*:F^*\to E^*A∗:F∗→E∗ its adjoint, the continuous linear map with ⟨Ax,y∗⟩=⟨x,A∗y∗⟩\langle Ax,y^*\rangle=\langle x,A^*y^*\rangle⟨Ax,y∗⟩=⟨x,A∗y∗⟩.

A function f:E→[−∞,+∞]f:E\to[-\infty,+\infty]f:E→[−∞,+∞] is convex when its epigraph {(x,μ)∣μ∈R, μ≥f(x)}\{(x,\mu)\mid\mu\in\mathbb R,\ \mu\ge f(x)\}{(x,μ)∣μ∈R, μ≥f(x)} is convex in E×RE\times\mathbb RE×R. It is proper when it never takes −∞-\infty−∞ and is finite somewhere. A function ggg is proper concave when −g-g−g is convex, ggg never takes +∞+\infty+∞, and ggg is finite somewhere. The standing hypotheses are that fff is lower semicontinuous proper convex on EEE and ggg is upper semicontinuous proper concave on FFF. Their conjugates are

f∗(x∗)=sup⁡x{⟨x,x∗⟩−f(x)},g∗(y∗)=inf⁡y{⟨y,y∗⟩−g(y)}.f^*(x^*)=\sup_{x}\{\langle x,x^*\rangle-f(x)\},\qquad g^*(y^*)=\inf_{y}\{\langle y,y^*\rangle-g(y)\}.f∗(x∗)=xsup​{⟨x,x∗⟩−f(x)},g∗(y∗)=yinf​{⟨y,y∗⟩−g(y)}.

The primal problem (P) is to minimize f(x)−g(Ax)f(x)-g(Ax)f(x)−g(Ax) over x∈Ex\in Ex∈E. The dual problem (P*) is to maximize g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗)g^*(y^*)-f^*(A^*y^*)g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗) over y∗∈F∗y^*\in F^*y∗∈F∗. For z∈Fz\in Fz∈F the perturbed problem (P(zzz)) is to minimize f(x)−g(Ax−z)f(x)-g(Ax-z)f(x)−g(Ax−z). Its value defines the perturbation function

h(z)=inf⁡(P(z))=inf⁡x∈E{f(x)−g(Ax−z)},h(0)=inf⁡(P).h(z)=\inf(\mathrm P(z))=\inf_{x\in E}\{f(x)-g(Ax-z)\},\qquad h(0)=\inf(\mathrm P).h(z)=inf(P(z))=x∈Einf​{f(x)−g(Ax−z)},h(0)=inf(P).

The lower semicontinuous hull of hhh is hˉ(y)=lim inf⁡z→yh(z)\bar h(y)=\liminf_{z\to y}h(z)hˉ(y)=liminfz→y​h(z), where z=yz=yz=y is allowed, so that hˉ≤h\bar h\le hhˉ≤h. All infima and suprema are taken in [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

sup⁡(P∗)=lim inf⁡z→0 [inf⁡(P(z))],\sup(\mathrm P^*)=\liminf_{z\to 0}\,[\inf(\mathrm P(z))],sup(P∗)=z→0liminf​[inf(P(z))],

valid except in the trivial case where the left side is −∞-\infty−∞ and the right side is +∞+\infty+∞. No consistency, constraint qualification or attainment is assumed, and neither side need be finite. The exception is exactly the stated conjunction. A version assuming (P) consistent would be weaker, since an inconsistent (P), with h(0)=+∞h(0)=+\inftyh(0)=+∞, may still have a finite lower limit.

Milestones: the four claims of the proof (p. 180)

  1. hˉ\bar hhˉ is a lower semicontinuous convex function on FFF.
  2. For every y∗∈F∗y^*\in F^*y∗∈F∗, with hˉ∗(y∗)=sup⁡y{⟨y,y∗⟩−hˉ(y)}\bar h^*(y^*)=\sup_y\{\langle y,y^*\rangle-\bar h(y)\}hˉ∗(y∗)=supy​{⟨y,y∗⟩−hˉ(y)},
−hˉ∗(y∗)=inf⁡y{hˉ(y)−⟨y,y∗⟩}=inf⁡z{h(z)−⟨z,y∗⟩}=g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗).-\bar h^*(y^*)=\inf_y\{\bar h(y)-\langle y,y^*\rangle\}=\inf_z\{h(z)-\langle z,y^*\rangle\}=g^*(y^*)-f^*(A^*y^*).−hˉ∗(y∗)=yinf​{hˉ(y)−⟨y,y∗⟩}=zinf​{h(z)−⟨z,y∗⟩}=g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗).
  1. (6.2): if hˉ\bar hhˉ is proper, then hˉ(0)=sup⁡y∗{⟨0,y∗⟩−hˉ∗(y∗)}\bar h(0)=\sup_{y^*}\{\langle 0,y^*\rangle-\bar h^*(y^*)\}hˉ(0)=supy∗​{⟨0,y∗⟩−hˉ∗(y∗)}.
  2. If hˉ\bar hhˉ is not proper, the maximand g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗)g^*(y^*)-f^*(A^*y^*)g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗) of (P*) is identically −∞-\infty−∞.

The paper's Lemma 2 (convexity of hhh) is used by the first claim. It is a milestone of the companion mission on Theorem 3 of the same paper and is not restated here.

Significance

Theorem 6 reduces every question about the dual value to a question about the primal value function near the origin. Strong duality inf⁡(P)=sup⁡(P∗)\inf(\mathrm P)=\sup(\mathrm P^*)inf(P)=sup(P∗) holds exactly when hhh is lower semicontinuous at 000 (outside the trivial case). A duality gap is exactly a downward jump of hhh at 000. The dual of (P*) obeys the same formula, which the paper uses to derive Theorem 7 on normal problems. An integer-lattice analogue appears in discrete convex analysis (Murota, Theorem 8.53, whose duality relation is already stated on Prove2Me as DiscreteConvex.ConjugacyDualityD.general_duality_relations). That statement has no topology and is not the same theorem.

The result is classical and its proof is published. As far as the platform's index shows, no machine-checked statement of it exists in the paper's generality, nor a statement of extended-real biconjugation on general paired locally convex spaces. The value of the mission is a formal proof in the paper's setting: arbitrary topologically paired spaces, extended-real-valued functions, and both the proper and the improper case of the hull. The biconjugation milestone (6.2) and the hull lemma are reusable for other perturbational duality results.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares h(0)h(0)h(0) with the dual objective directly. It cannot give the theorem, because hhh may jump at 000, and the dual objective does not detect the value of hhh at a single point: the target is a lower limit, not a value. In infinite dimensions, conjugacy recovers a function only when it is lower semicontinuous and convex for a topology compatible with the pairing, so the statement depends on the full compatibility of the pairing on FFF, not on a norm. The usual statements of biconjugation cover proper functions only, whereas here the lower limit may take both values ±∞\pm\infty±∞, and both cases of the theorem must be covered. Finally, extended-real arithmetic must be tracked so that the dual objective, defined from f∗f^*f∗, g∗g^*g∗ and A∗A^*A∗, is matched in every infinite case.

Formalization scope

Values lie in EReal. Infima and suprema are complete-lattice ⨅ and ⨆, so an empty or unbounded family gives ±∞\pm\infty±∞ as in the paper. The lower limit is Filter.liminf h (nhds y) over the full neighbourhood filter: a punctured limit would change the theorem. Convexity is epigraph convexity in E×RE\times\mathbb RE×R, and properness is the paper's two-sided condition. A topological pairing is a structure holding a bilinear map, separate continuity, and existence and uniqueness of representing elements in both directions. No norm, inner product or finite dimension is assumed. The adjoint A∗A^*A∗ is continuous linear data satisfying the adjoint identity. The conjugates f∗f^*f∗, g∗g^*g∗ are defined by the paper's formulas from fff, ggg, so their regularity is a consequence, not a hypothesis. Properness of fff and ggg excludes the form (+∞)−(+∞)(+\infty)-(+\infty)(+∞)−(+∞) from f(x)−g(Ax−z)f(x)-g(Ax-z)f(x)−g(Ax−z) and from g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗)g^*(y^*)-f^*(A^*y^*)g∗(y∗)−f∗(A∗y∗). No statement is repaired relative to the page.

The dual value is the supremum of the maximand built from f∗f^*f∗, g∗g^*g∗ and A∗A^*A∗ as on p. 172. Defining sup⁡(P∗)\sup(\mathrm P^*)sup(P∗) through hˉ\bar hhˉ (for instance as the biconjugate of hˉ\bar hhˉ at 000) would make Theorem 6 true by definition and is ruled out.

A complete development needs extended-real conjugates on paired spaces, the lower semicontinuous hull and the closure of a convex epigraph, and Fenchel–Moreau for proper lower semicontinuous convex functions on a locally convex space. All of these are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, and lemmas toward Fenchel–Moreau in this generality, are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • R. T. Rockafellar, Duality and Stability in Extremum Problems Involving Convex Functions, Pacific J. Math. 21 (1967), 167–187. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1967.21.167
  • W. Fenchel, On conjugate convex functions, Canad. J. Math. 1 (1949), 73–77. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1949-007-x
  • A. Brøndsted, Conjugate convex functions in topological vector spaces, Mat.-Fys. Medd. Dansk. Vid. Selsk. 34 (1964) (reference [2] of the paper; no DOI).
  • J.-J. Moreau, Fonctions convexes en dualité, multigraph, Séminaires de Mathématique, Faculté des Sciences, Université de Montpellier, 1962 (reference [12] of the paper; no DOI).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Conjugate Duality and Optimization, CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics 16, SIAM, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970524
  • K. Murota, Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM, 2003, Theorem 8.53. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718508
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment III: Under Stochastic Monotonicity, the Myopic and Optimal Basestock Levels Are Nondecreasing in the World StateResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand for many products does not arrive at a constant rate. It moves with an underlying environment: the economy, the season, a product's life-cycle stage, the state of a customer's own operations. Song and Zipkin (Oper. Res. 41(2):351–370, 1993) modelled this environment as a continuous-time Markov chain, the world, whose current state sets the Poisson demand rate, and showed that a basestock policy whose level depends on the current world state is optimal under linear order costs. Missions I and II of this series formalize those optimality results.

A practitioner who uses such a policy wants to know how the levels depend on the world. If a higher world state means more demand now and more demand later, a higher level should be kept. That is what intuition says, but the optimal level depends on the whole future of the world chain, not only on the current demand rate. §4 of the paper answers it for a world with an arbitrary partial order, which covers several independent demand drivers at once.

Setting

The world AAA is a continuous-time Markov chain on a countable set I\mathbf II with generator Q=(qij)Q = (q_{ij})Q=(qij​), qi=−qiiq_i = -q_{ii}qi​=−qii​, and bounded rates q∗=sup⁡iqiq^* = \sup_i q_iq∗=supi​qi​, λ∗=sup⁡iλi\lambda^* = \sup_i \lambda_iλ∗=supi​λi​. While A=iA = iA=i, unit demands arrive at rate λi\lambda_iλi​, all demand is backlogged, and orders arrive after a random lead time LLL that is independent of the world and the demand. Costs are discounted at rate α>0\alpha > 0α>0. With the unit order cost cˉ\bar ccˉ, holding rate hhh and penalty rate ppp, set c=cˉ E[e−αL]c = \bar c\,E[e^{-\alpha L}]c=cˉE[e−αL] and

C^(x)=max⁡{−px, hx},C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi)],\hat C(x) = \max\{-px,\ hx\}, \qquad C(i,y) = E\big[e^{-\alpha L}\hat C(y - D^i_L)\big],C^(x)=max{−px, hx},C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi​)],

where DLiD^i_LDLi​ is the demand during a lead time when the world starts in iii. Uniformizing at a rate μ≥q∗+λ∗\mu \ge q^* + \lambda^*μ≥q∗+λ∗ with β=1/(μ+α)\beta = 1/(\mu+\alpha)β=1/(μ+α) and γ=βμ\gamma = \beta\muγ=βμ, the myopic cost is G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y)G^+(i,y) = (1-\gamma)cy + \beta C(i,y)G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y). The linear-cost model (K=0K = 0K=0) is solved by value iteration from W0≡0W_0 \equiv 0W0​≡0:

Gn(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλic+β{λiWn−1(i,y−1)+∑j≠iqijWn−1(j,y)+(μ−λi−qi)Wn−1(i,y)},G_n(i,y) = G^+(i,y) + \beta\lambda_i c + \beta\Big\{\lambda_i W_{n-1}(i,y-1) + \sum_{j\ne i} q_{ij}W_{n-1}(j,y) + (\mu-\lambda_i-q_i)W_{n-1}(i,y)\Big\},Gn​(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλi​c+β{λi​Wn−1​(i,y−1)+j=i∑​qij​Wn−1​(j,y)+(μ−λi​−qi​)Wn−1​(i,y)},

Wn(i,x)=min⁡y≥xGn(i,y)W_n(i,x) = \min_{y\ge x} G_n(i,y)Wn​(i,x)=miny≥x​Gn​(i,y), with limits G∞G_\inftyG∞​ and W∞W_\inftyW∞​. The myopic level y+(i)y^+(i)y+(i), the finite-horizon levels yn∗(i)y^*_n(i)yn∗​(i) and the optimal level y∗(i)y^*(i)y∗(i) are the smallest minimizers of G+(i,⋅)G^+(i,\cdot)G+(i,⋅), Gn(i,⋅)G_n(i,\cdot)Gn​(i,⋅) and G∞(i,⋅)G_\infty(i,\cdot)G∞​(i,⋅), and y∞∗(i)=lim⁡nyn∗(i)y^*_\infty(i) = \lim_n y^*_n(i)y∞∗​(i)=limn​yn∗​(i). Throughout, αcˉ<p\alpha\bar c < pαcˉ<p (Assumption 1).

The world states carry a partial order ⪯\preceq⪯. The chain is stochastically partial-monotone (display (14)) if for every i⪯ji \preceq ji⪯j there is a probability space carrying copies of AAA started at iii and at jjj whose paths satisfy A(t)⪯A′(t)A(t) \preceq A'(t)A(t)⪯A′(t) for all t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 almost surely. Condition 1 requires this together with λi\lambda_iλi​ nondecreasing in iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

Under Condition 1, the three families of levels exist and are nondecreasing along ⪯\preceq⪯:

i⪯j ⟹ y+(i)≤y+(j),y∗(i)≤y∗(j),y∞∗(i)≤y∞∗(j).i \preceq j \ \Longrightarrow\ y^+(i) \le y^+(j),\qquad y^*(i) \le y^*(j),\qquad y^*_\infty(i) \le y^*_\infty(j).i⪯j ⟹ y+(i)≤y+(j),y∗(i)≤y∗(j),y∞∗​(i)≤y∞∗​(j).

Milestones

  • Lemma 8, with its fixed-lead-time form from the proof: D(l)D(l)D(l) given A(0)=iA(0)=iA(0)=i is stochastically smaller than given A(0)=jA(0)=jA(0)=j for each l≥0l \ge 0l≥0, and DLi≤stDLjD^i_L \le_{st} D^j_LDLi​≤st​DLj​.
  • Lemma 9: ΔC(i,y)≥ΔC(j,y)\Delta C(i,y) \ge \Delta C(j,y)ΔC(i,y)≥ΔC(j,y) for i⪯ji \preceq ji⪯j.
  • Theorem 7: for all n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 and fixed xxx, ΔWn−1(i,x)\Delta W_{n-1}(i,x)ΔWn−1​(i,x) and ΔGn(i,x)\Delta G_n(i,x)ΔGn​(i,x) are nonincreasing in iii, and yn∗(i)y^*_n(i)yn∗​(i) is nondecreasing in iii.
  • Theorem 9 (companion): if qij≠0q_{ij} \ne 0qij​=0 only for j⪰ij \succeq ij⪰i, then y∗(i)=y+(i)y^*(i) = y^+(i)y∗(i)=y+(i), so the myopic policy is optimal.
  • Theorem 10 (companion): with a fixed order cost K>0K > 0K>0, the bounds S+(i)S^+(i)S+(i), r+(i)r^+(i)r+(i), r−(i)r^-(i)r−(i), r−−(i)r^{--}(i)r−−(i) on the optimal (r,S)(r,S)(r,S) parameters are nondecreasing in iii.

Significance

Theorem 8 turns an optimal policy into a structured one. A world-dependent basestock policy has one level per world state; monotonicity says the levels follow the order of the states, which reduces search, makes the levels interpretable, and gives sanity checks for computed solutions. Theorem 9 identifies when nothing beyond the one-step cost needs to be computed at all. Theorem 10 is the paper's substitute for an open question: the authors could not show that the optimal (r,S)(r,S)(r,S) parameters are monotone, and instead bound them between monotone functions.

All of these results are proved in the paper. None of them has been machine-checked. The formalization requires a value-iteration argument for a model with unbounded one-period costs, a coupling argument for Markov-modulated Poisson demand, and the passage to the limit in the levels. These are the ingredients of most monotone-policy results in inventory theory with Markov-modulated demand.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the generator. For a single scalar world, stochastic monotonicity is equivalent to the expectation inequality (15) for nondecreasing functions, and the inductive step of Theorem 7 only needs that. For a partial order, the expectation inequality is strictly weaker than the coupling (14) (Massey 1987). The induction must also handle the cross term ∑jqijΔWn−1(j,x)\sum_j q_{ij}\Delta W_{n-1}(j,x)∑j​qij​ΔWn−1​(j,x), which requires an embedded discrete-time chain whose one-step kernel preserves the order. The paper's Lemma 7 asserts that the embedded chain P=I+Q/νP = I + Q/\nuP=I+Q/ν is monotone for every ν≥q∗\nu \ge q^*ν≥q∗. As printed, this is false at ν=q∗\nu = q^*ν=q∗: for two states with q01=q10=1q_{01} = q_{10} = 1q01​=q10​=1, PPP swaps the states. A complete proof cannot rely on that lemma as printed.

A second difficulty is that the one-period cost is unbounded. The classical theorems that ordered differences survive value iteration (Denardo, Lovejoy) assume bounded costs, so the induction has to be carried out by hand, and the limits G∞G_\inftyG∞​, y∞∗y^*_\inftyy∞∗​ must be justified by Lemma 4's uniform bounds.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace SongZipkinFluct.Monotone. World states form a countable nonempty type with a PartialOrder instance; no linear order is assumed. Inventory positions are integers. The demand-count law fi(d∣l)f_i(d\mid l)fi​(d∣l) and the world transition function P(t)P(t)P(t) are defined by uniformization at the model's rate μ\muμ, the paper's own device. The lead-time law is a probability measure on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and C(i,y)C(i,y)C(i,y) is the series ∑dgi(d∣α)C^(y−d)\sum_d g_i(d\mid\alpha)\hat C(y-d)∑d​gi​(d∣α)C^(y−d) of display (16). WnW_nWn​ uses an infimum over integers y≥xy \ge xy≥x, and W∞W_\inftyW∞​, G∞G_\inftyG∞​ are suprema over nnn, which equal the limits because the sequences are nondecreasing and bounded. Monotonicity in iii is Monotone/Antitone with respect to ⪯\preceq⪯. Smallest minimizers, maxima and minima are IsLeast/IsGreatest characterizations, never sInf on Z\mathbb ZZ.

Condition 1(a) is encoded as the coupling (14) itself, with one probability space per pair i⪯ji \preceq ji⪯j and copies identified by their finite-dimensional distributions. Replacing it by the expectation inequality (15), or the partial order by a total order, would change the theorem and is ruled out. Every goal statement asserts the existence of the levels it constrains before constraining them, so no conclusion holds vacuously. The standing hypotheses together with Condition 1 are satisfiable: a one-state instance is checked in Lean.

Lemma 7 is not included because it is false as printed. A guarded version (for instance with ν≥2q∗\nu \ge 2q^*ν≥2q∗) would be a welcome contribution. Reusable parts include the uniformized Markov-modulated Poisson process, the coupling definition of stochastic monotonicity for a countable partially ordered state space, and the usual stochastic order on N\mathbb NN. Proofs of Lemma 9 and Theorem 7 that avoid Lemma 7 are particularly welcome.

Selected references

  • J.-S. Song and P. Zipkin, Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment, Operations Research 41(2):351–370, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.2.351
  • W. A. Massey, Stochastic orderings for Markov processes on partially ordered spaces, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(2):350–367, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.2.350
  • J. Keilson and A. Kester, Monotone matrices and monotone Markov processes, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 5(3):231–241, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(77)90033-3
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., Optimal policy for a multi-product, dynamic, nonstationary inventory problem, Management Science 12(3):206–222, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.3.206
  • W. S. Lovejoy, Ordered solutions for dynamic programs, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(2):269–276, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.2.269
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Scenarios and Policy Aggregation in Optimization Under Uncertainty 1: In the Convex Case Progressive Hedging Converges to Optimal Solutions of (P) and (D) Exactly When They ExistResearch Paper

Motivation

Decisions under uncertainty are often modelled by a finite set of scenarios: possible futures s∈Ss\in Ss∈S with weights psp_sps​, each with its own optimization problem. Solving every scenario separately is easy but useless in practice, because the decision taken today cannot depend on which scenario will be revealed tomorrow. Progressive hedging, introduced by Rockafellar and Wets in Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty (IIASA Working Paper WP-87-119, 1987; Mathematics of Operations Research 16(1), 1991), restores this nonanticipativity by iterating between scenario-wise solves and an averaging step, guided by price systems that act as multipliers. It is the standard decomposition method for multistage stochastic programs and is implemented in widely used software such as PySP/mpi-sppy. This mission formalizes the paper's convergence theorem in the convex case, Theorem 5.1, together with the duality theory of §4 and the proof steps of §5 it rests on.

Setting

Let SSS be a finite set of scenarios with weights ps>0p_s>0ps​>0, ∑sps=1\sum_s p_s=1∑s​ps​=1. For each sss the scenario subproblem (Ps)(P_s)(Ps​) is to minimize fs(x)f_s(x)fs​(x) over x∈Cs⊂Rnx\in C_s\subset\mathbb R^nx∈Cs​⊂Rn, where CsC_sCs​ is nonempty and closed and fsf_sfs​ is locally Lipschitz with bounded level sets {x∈Cs∣fs(x)≤α}\{x\in C_s\mid f_s(x)\le\alpha\}{x∈Cs​∣fs​(x)≤α}. The convex case is when every fsf_sfs​ and CsC_sCs​ is convex.

A decision vector is split by time, x=(x1,…,xT)x=(x_1,\dots,x_T)x=(x1​,…,xT​). A policy is a map X:S→RnX:S\to\mathbb R^nX:S→Rn; the policy space E\mathcal EE carries the inner product ⟨X,Y⟩=∑spsX(s)⋅Y(s)\langle X,Y\rangle=\sum_s p_s X(s)\cdot Y(s)⟨X,Y⟩=∑s​ps​X(s)⋅Y(s) and norm ∥X∥=⟨X,X⟩1/2\|X\|=\langle X,X\rangle^{1/2}∥X∥=⟨X,X⟩1/2. At each time ttt the scenarios are partitioned into bundles A∈AtA\in\mathcal A_tA∈At​ of scenarios that cannot yet be told apart. The aggregation X^=JX\hat X=JXX^=JX replaces Xt(s)X_t(s)Xt​(s) by its ppp-weighted average over the bundle of sss at time ttt, and K=I−JK=I-JK=I−J. The implementable policies are N={X∣Xt\mathcal N=\{X\mid X_tN={X∣Xt​ constant on each A∈At}A\in\mathcal A_t\}A∈At​}, the price systems are M={W∣JW=0}=N⊥\mathcal M=\{W\mid JW=0\}=\mathcal N^\perpM={W∣JW=0}=N⊥, and the admissible policies are C={X∣X(s)∈Cs ∀s}\mathcal C=\{X\mid X(s)\in C_s\ \forall s\}C={X∣X(s)∈Cs​ ∀s}. With F(X)=∑spsfs(X(s))F(X)=\sum_s p_s f_s(X(s))F(X)=∑s​ps​fs​(X(s)) the problem is

(P)minimize F(X) subject to X∈C∩N.(P)\qquad \text{minimize } F(X) \text{ subject to } X\in\mathcal C\cap\mathcal N .(P)minimize F(X) subject to X∈C∩N.

Its Lagrangian is L(X,W)=F(X)+⟨X,W⟩L(X,W)=F(X)+\langle X,W\rangleL(X,W)=F(X)+⟨X,W⟩ on C×M\mathcal C\times\mathcal MC×M, the dual is (D)(D)(D): maximize G(W)=inf⁡X∈CL(X,W)G(W)=\inf_{X\in\mathcal C}L(X,W)G(W)=infX∈C​L(X,W) over W∈MW\in\mathcal MW∈M with G(W)>−∞G(W)>-\inftyG(W)>−∞.

The progressive hedging algorithm fixes r>0r>0r>0, starts from any X0X^0X0 and any W0∈MW^0\in\mathcal MW0∈M, and in iteration ν\nuν sets X^ν=JXν\hat X^\nu=JX^\nuX^ν=JXν, lets Xν+1(s)X^{\nu+1}(s)Xν+1(s) minimize

fs(x)+x⋅Wν(s)+12r ∣x−X^ν(s)∣2over x∈Csf_s(x)+x\cdot W^\nu(s)+\tfrac12 r\,|x-\hat X^\nu(s)|^2\quad\text{over } x\in C_sfs​(x)+x⋅Wν(s)+21​r∣x−X^ν(s)∣2over x∈Cs​

for every scenario, and updates Wν+1=Wν+rKXν+1W^{\nu+1}=W^\nu+rKX^{\nu+1}Wν+1=Wν+rKXν+1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

In the convex case with exact minimization, the sequences {X^ν}\{\hat X^\nu\}{X^ν} and {Wν}\{W^\nu\}{Wν} are bounded if and only if (P) and (D) have optimal solutions. In that case there are optimal X∗X^*X∗ for (P) and W∗W^*W∗ for (D) with

X^ν→X∗,Wν→W∗,\hat X^\nu\to X^*,\qquad W^\nu\to W^*,X^ν→X∗,Wν→W∗,

and, with ∥(X,W)∥r=(∥X∥2+r−2∥W∥2)1/2\|(X,W)\|_r=(\|X\|^2+r^{-2}\|W\|^2)^{1/2}∥(X,W)∥r​=(∥X∥2+r−2∥W∥2)1/2,

∥(X^ν+1,Wν+1)−(X∗,W∗)∥r≤∥(X^ν,Wν)−(X∗,W∗)∥r\|(\hat X^{\nu+1},W^{\nu+1})-(X^*,W^*)\|_r\le\|(\hat X^{\nu},W^{\nu})-(X^*,W^*)\|_r∥(X^ν+1,Wν+1)−(X∗,W∗)∥r​≤∥(X^ν,Wν)−(X∗,W∗)∥r​

for all ν≥0\nu\ge0ν≥0, strictly unless (X^ν,Wν)=(X∗,W∗)(\hat X^\nu,W^\nu)=(X^*,W^*)(X^ν,Wν)=(X∗,W∗), and the step lengths ∥(X^ν+1,Wν+1)−(X^ν,Wν)∥r\|(\hat X^{\nu+1},W^{\nu+1})-(\hat X^\nu,W^\nu)\|_r∥(X^ν+1,Wν+1)−(X^ν,Wν)∥r​ are nonincreasing from ν=1\nu=1ν=1 on.

Milestones

  1. Propositions 3.1–3.3: existence for the scenario subproblems, the lower bound α^=min⁡CF=E{min⁡(Ps)}≤min⁡(P)\hat\alpha=\min_{\mathcal C}F=E\{\min(P_s)\}\le\min(P)α^=minC​F=E{min(Ps​)}≤min(P), well-posedness of every modified subproblem (unique solution in the convex case), and compact level sets of FFF on C\mathcal CC.
  2. Theorem 4.2 and Proposition 4.4 (in the convex case): the scenario-wise subgradient conditions −W∗(s)∈∂fs(X∗(s))+NCs(X∗(s))-W^*(s)\in\partial f_s(X^*(s))+N_{C_s}(X^*(s))−W∗(s)∈∂fs​(X∗(s))+NCs​​(X∗(s)) are equivalent to a saddle point of LLL, and the analogous conditions are necessary and sufficient for the iterates.
  3. Proposition 4.5 and Theorem 4.6: the perturbation function Φ(U)=min⁡{F(X)∣X∈C, KX=U}\Phi(U)=\min\{F(X)\mid X\in\mathcal C,\ KX=U\}Φ(U)=min{F(X)∣X∈C, KX=U} and the duality −∞<min⁡(P)=sup⁡(D)-\infty<\min(P)=\sup(D)−∞<min(P)=sup(D), argmax⁡(D)=−∂Φ(0)\operatorname{argmax}(D)=-\partial\Phi(0)argmax(D)=−∂Φ(0).
  4. Proposition 5.3: each iteration is the unique saddle point of a proximal saddle function.
  5. From the proof of Theorem 5.1: firm nonexpansiveness (5.26) of the iteration map in ∥⋅∥r\|\cdot\|_r∥⋅∥r​, and the identification of its fixed points with primal–dual optimal pairs.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 is the guarantee behind progressive hedging in the convex case: solving only small scenario problems and averaging, the method finds a nonanticipative optimal policy and an optimal price system whenever these exist, with a distance to the solution that never increases. The dual sequence WνW^\nuWν converges to a solution of (D), which gives the prices of information that the paper interprets economically. Boundedness of the iterates is an exact test for solvability.

The result is classical and fully proved on paper; its proof reduces the algorithm to Rockafellar's proximal point algorithm for a maximal monotone operator. No machine-checked version is known to exist. The mission produces a formal statement and, eventually, a proof of the full chain from scenario data to convergence, including the duality theorem of §4, which is of independent use for scenario-based stochastic programming. A related platform mission in this series treats the nonconvex case (limits of the algorithm satisfy first-order conditions).

Difficulty

The algorithm is not a proximal point method in the variable XXX: it acts on the pair (X^,W)(\hat X,W)(X^,W), and the averaged policy X^ν\hat X^\nuX^ν is in general not admissible while XνX^\nuXν is in general not implementable. The step that fails in a direct attempt is showing that the map (X^ν,Wν)↦(X^ν+1,Wν+1)(\hat X^\nu,W^\nu)\mapsto(\hat X^{\nu+1},W^{\nu+1})(X^ν,Wν)↦(X^ν+1,Wν+1) is firmly nonexpansive, which requires recognizing it as the resolvent of the monotone operator of a saddle function restricted to N×M\mathcal N\times\mathcal MN×M, in the rescaled norm ∥⋅∥r\|\cdot\|_r∥⋅∥r​ rather than in the original product norm. A second difficulty is duality: identifying the fixed points of the iteration with optimal pairs of (P) and (D) needs the convex duality theory of §4 for an extended-real-valued perturbation function without any constraint qualification.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); policies are functions S → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with S a Fintype. Time periods are a monotone map assigning each coordinate to its period, and each At\mathcal A_tAt​ is a Setoid S; no refinement between periods is assumed. The standing assumptions of §3 are fields of the model structure, and the convex case is a separate hypothesis.

The inner product (2.2), norm (2.3) and ∥⋅∥r\|\cdot\|_r∥⋅∥r​ (5.2) are explicit weighted sums. Mathlib's norm on a function type is the sup norm; it is used only for topology (boundedness, convergence, local Lipschitz continuity, compactness), which coincides with that of (2.3) in finite dimension. Stating (5.3) or (5.26) with Mathlib's sup norm would change the inequalities and is ruled out. Optimal values min⁡(P)\min(P)min(P), sup⁡(D)\sup(D)sup(D), GGG, Φ\PhiΦ, α^\hat\alphaα^ and ℓ\ellℓ are EReal infima and suprema, so that infeasibility gives +∞+\infty+∞ and an unbounded dual objective gives −∞-\infty−∞; real-valued sInf would silently return 000 there. A solution of (D) must have G(W∗)>−∞G(W^*)>-\inftyG(W∗)>−∞. The algorithm is a predicate on sequences, with X0X^0X0 arbitrary and W0∈MW^0\in\mathcal MW0∈M; Proposition 3.2 shows the predicate is satisfiable.

Subgradients and normal cones are those of convex analysis; the normal cone is the published definition FirstOrderOpt.ConvexTheory.normalCone. Not formalized: the nonconvex (Clarke) parts of §4, the linear-quadratic case and its rate result, and inexact minimization.

A complete development needs: separable minimization over product sets, finite-dimensional compactness arguments, convex duality for a perturbation function on a subspace, and the convergence of the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators (Rockafellar 1976, Theorem 1 and Proposition 1). The last two are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either as standalone results are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. T. Rockafellar and R. J.-B. Wets, Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty, IIASA Working Paper WP-87-119, 1987; Mathematics of Operations Research 16(1):119–147, 1991. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2933/ — https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.1.119
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 14(5):877–898, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1137/0314056
  • G. J. Minty, Monotone (nonlinear) operators in Hilbert space, Duke Mathematical Journal 29(3):341–346, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1215/S0012-7094-62-02933-2
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition III: In the θ-Grid, the Separations of Order < θ With Small E(A) Form a Tangle of Order θResearch Paper

Why a grid has a tangle

Robertson and Seymour introduced tangles as a way to describe a region of a graph that cannot be isolated by a separation of low order. A separation divides the edges into two sides, and its order counts the vertices shared by those sides. A tangle makes a consistent choice of the side regarded as small at every order below a threshold. This turns an informal idea of a highly connected region into an object with explicit axioms. In Graph Minors. X, the authors connect tangles with branch-width, tree-width and grid minors; the grid construction is the direct example behind that connection. The paper states the existence of a tangle of order θ\thetaθ in every θ\thetaθ-grid as (7.3) on p. 173. Robertson and Seymour, 1991.

The result is already proved in the paper. The present target is its Lean statement and proof, together with the two numbered results from §7 on which the construction rests. This mission concerns the grid itself. The paper's further assertion that a grid minor induces a tangle in a larger graph uses the separate minor-transfer result (6.1), whose edge identities require additional definitions. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 170–173.

The grid, its edge boundary and its small sets

Fix an integer θ≥2\theta\ge2θ≥2. The θ\thetaθ-grid GGG has vertices (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) for 1≤i,j≤θ1\le i,j\le\theta1≤i,j≤θ. Two vertices are adjacent exactly when their coordinate differences have absolute values summing to one. For each iii, PiP_iPi​ is the horizontal row with vertices (i,1),…,(i,θ)(i,1),\ldots,(i,\theta)(i,1),…,(i,θ); for each jjj, QjQ_jQj​ is the vertical column. Write E(Pi)E(P_i)E(Pi​) and E(Qj)E(Q_j)E(Qj​) for their edge sets. The Lean development uses the already published definition of this same simple graph, with coordinates shifted to start at zero. The shift changes no adjacency or row and column relation. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, p. 171.

For an edge set X⊆E(G)X\subseteq E(G)X⊆E(G), the edge boundary ∂(X)\partial(X)∂(X) consists of vertices incident both with an edge in XXX and with an edge outside XXX. The source prints “vertices v∈Xv\in Xv∈X” when introducing this set. Since XXX is a set of edges, this is a type slip; the two incidence conditions give the intended reading. An edge set is small if ∣∂(X)∣<θ|\partial(X)|<\theta∣∂(X)∣<θ and it contains no complete row edge set E(Pi)E(P_i)E(Pi​). These are two separate requirements. An edge set can have a small boundary while still containing a whole row. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 171–172.

A subhypergraph AAA specifies subsets V(A)V(A)V(A) and E(A)E(A)E(A) of the grid's vertices and edges, retaining the incidences of the ambient grid. A separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) satisfies A∪B=GA\cup B=GA∪B=G and E(A∩B)=∅E(A\cap B)=\varnothingE(A∩B)=∅; its order is ∣V(A∩B)∣|V(A\cap B)|∣V(A∩B)∣. Although the grid is a simple graph, these are the paper's hypergraph definitions. A tangle T\mathcal TT of order θ\thetaθ contains only separations of order below θ\thetaθ and satisfies three axioms: it chooses an orientation of every such separation; the union of the first sides of any three chosen separations is not GGG; and no chosen first side contains every vertex of GGG. The chosen three may coincide. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 153–154.

Formalization targets

The first milestone, (7.1), identifies a symmetry between rows and columns under a low boundary:

∣∂(X)∣<θ⟹(∃i, E(Pi)⊆X)⟺(∃j, E(Qj)⊆X).|\partial(X)|<\theta\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \bigl(\exists i,\ E(P_i)\subseteq X\bigr) \Longleftrightarrow \bigl(\exists j,\ E(Q_j)\subseteq X\bigr).∣∂(X)∣<θ⟹(∃i, E(Pi​)⊆X)⟺(∃j, E(Qj​)⊆X).

The second milestone, (7.2), says that three small edge sets cannot cover all the grid's edges:

X1∪X2∪X3=E(G)⟹¬(X1,X2,X3 are all small).X_1\cup X_2\cup X_3=E(G) \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \neg\bigl(X_1,X_2,X_3\text{ are all small}\bigr).X1​∪X2​∪X3​=E(G)⟹¬(X1​,X2​,X3​ are all small).

The goal, (7.3), defines Tθ\mathcal T_\thetaTθ​ rather than taking it as an arbitrary set. It selects precisely the separations (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of order less than θ\thetaθ for which E(A)E(A)E(A) is small, and asserts

Tθ is a tangle in G of order θ.\mathcal T_\theta\text{ is a tangle in }G\text{ of order }\theta.Tθ​ is a tangle in G of order θ.

These are the numbered §7 results on pp. 171–173, in the order used by the paper. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 171–173.

What the result supplies

The theorem gives an explicit tangle in a familiar graph for every order θ≥2\theta\ge2θ≥2. A tangle is more than a numerical connectivity bound: it records coherent choices across all separations below its order. In the paper, the grid tangle feeds the link between large grids and tangles of high order. The extension from a grid minor in another graph to a tangle of that graph invokes (6.1), beyond this mission's goal. The converse direction, that large tree-width forces a large grid minor, is (7.4), proved in Graph Minors V (Robertson and Seymour, 1986); the published definitions and statements of that paper on this platform are about grid minors and tree-width, not tangles. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 170, 173.

Formalizing (7.3) will make the grid tangle available as a checked object alongside the already published grid graph. It will also produce reusable definitions for an edge boundary, small edge sets and the paper's hypergraph separations. The Lean files here are draft statements with open proofs; the published 1986 grid definition is the existing checked ingredient. No machine-checked proof of (7.1), (7.2) or (7.3) is claimed by this proposal.

Where the difficulty lies

The obvious attempt at (7.2) counts boundary vertices column by column. If every column QjQ_jQj​ has all its edges in X1∪X2X_1\cup X_2X1​∪X2​ and meets both sets, each column contributes at least two vertices to ∣∂(X1)∣+∣∂(X2)∣|\partial(X_1)|+|\partial(X_2)|∣∂(X1​)∣+∣∂(X2​)∣, so the two boundaries together have at least 2θ2\theta2θ vertices. This only works when the third set misses the first and last rows; in general the third set can absorb edges of every column, and no single count over the whole grid bounds all three boundaries at once. The statement is a covering property of three sets, not a bound on any one of them, and the paper's argument for it is credited to D. Kleitman and M. Saks. The goal must then meet all three tangle axioms. The page's proof of (7.3) argues the first axiom and says only that the rest follows from (7.2); the third axiom, V(A)≠V(G)V(A)\ne V(G)V(A)=V(G), is part of the definition and must be established, not dropped. Robertson and Seymour, 1991, pp. 172–173.

Formalization scope

The source assumes finite hypergraphs throughout, and §7 fixes θ≥2\theta\ge2θ≥2. Lean uses a finite simple graph on Fin θ × Fin θ, reusing RobertsonSeymour1986.GM5.grid, and views its edge set as the edge type of a local hypergraph. Subhypergraphs hold vertex and edge subsets with inherited incidence. Set.ncard counts boundary vertices and separation order. Rows and columns use all grid edges whose two endpoints have the specified coordinate. This representation keeps every grid edge's identity, even though it is written as a SimpleGraph edge subtype.

IsSmall retains both ∣∂(X)∣<θ|\partial(X)|<\theta∣∂(X)∣<θ and the exclusion of full row edge sets. boundary requires an incident edge on each side of XXX. Both details are necessary for the claimed tangle: an IsSmall without the row clause would call every set with a small boundary small, including sets that contain whole rows, and the resulting set of separations is not a tangle; a boundary defined with "every edge outside XXX" instead of "some edge outside XXX" would be empty and make the size condition vacuous. The formalization keeps the third tangle axiom and does not replace it with an easier condition. The definitions of hypergraph, separation and tangle duplicate the shared encoding used by the other missions for this paper and can later be consolidated. The definitions also include the paper's tangle number and maximum edge size for that shared layer, though the grid goal does not invoke them; on finite inputs their maxima are bounded, and their empty-set value is zero.

The companion missions are Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition I: Tangle Number Equals max(Branch-Width, Largest Edge Size), max(β(G), γ(G)) = θ(G); Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition II: Branch-Width and Tree-Width Satisfy max(β, γ) ≤ ω + 1 ≤ max(⌊3β/2⌋, γ, 1); Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition IV: Mutually Distinguishable Tangles Have a Tree-Decomposition Separating Them by Their Distinctions; and Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition V: A θ-Pervasive Class of Designs Gives a Tree-Decomposition over 𝒮^{3θ−2} ∪ ℛ_{4θ−3}. Those missions address the paper's other main results; this one isolates the grid construction.

Selected references

  • N. Robertson and P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition, Journal of Combinatorial Theory, Series B 52 (1991), 153–190. DOI: 10.1016/0095-8956(91)90061-n.
  • N. Robertson and P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. V. Excluding a Planar Graph, Journal of Combinatorial Theory, Series B 41 (1986), 92–114. DOI: 10.1016/0095-8956(86)90030-4.
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Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition V: A θ-Pervasive Class of Designs Gives a Tree-Decomposition over 𝒮^{3θ−2} ∪ ℛ_{4θ−3}Research Paper

Motivation

Tangles were introduced by Robertson and Seymour in Graph Minors. X (JCTB 1991) to make precise the idea of a "highly connected region" of a graph. A tangle orients every low-order separation of the graph towards one side, consistently. They are the organising notion of the later papers of the Graph Minors series, which culminate in the graph structure theorem and the proof of Wagner's conjecture.

Section 11 of Graph Minors X, Structure relative to a tangle, asks how local and global structure are related. In the paper's words: suppose that GGG has large tangle number, but relative to each high-order tangle the graph has a structure of a certain kind XXX. What can be inferred about the global structure of GGG? One might guess that GGG has a tree-decomposition into pieces each with structure XXX, but that is false. The theorem of §11 shows that GGG does have a tree-decomposition into pieces which almost have structure XXX. The authors state that they need this for an application in a later paper of the series, cited as [6], Graph minors. XVII. Excluding a non-planar graph (submitted); it appeared as Graph Minors XVI (2003), where the local structure relative to a tangle is a near-embedding in a surface.

Setting

A hypergraph GGG has a finite vertex set V(G)V(G)V(G), a finite edge set E(G)E(G)E(G) and an incidence relation. A subhypergraph G′⊆GG' \subseteq GG′⊆G has V(G′)⊆V(G)V(G') \subseteq V(G)V(G′)⊆V(G) and E(G′)⊆E(G)E(G') \subseteq E(G)E(G′)⊆E(G), with every end of an edge of G′G'G′ in V(G′)V(G')V(G′). A separation of GGG is a pair (A,B)(A, B)(A,B) of subhypergraphs with A∪B=GA \cup B = GA∪B=G and E(A∩B)=∅E(A \cap B) = \emptysetE(A∩B)=∅, and its order is ∣V(A∩B)∣|V(A \cap B)|∣V(A∩B)∣.

For θ≥1\theta \ge 1θ≥1, a tangle of order θ\thetaθ in GGG is a set T\mathcal TT of separations of order <θ< \theta<θ such that (i) for each separation (A,B)(A, B)(A,B) of order <θ< \theta<θ one of (A,B)(A,B)(A,B), (B,A)(B,A)(B,A) is in T\mathcal TT; (ii) no three members (Ai,Bi)(A_i, B_i)(Ai​,Bi​) of T\mathcal TT have A1∪A2∪A3=GA_1 \cup A_2 \cup A_3 = GA1​∪A2​∪A3​=G; (iii) V(A)≠V(G)V(A) \ne V(G)V(A)=V(G) for (A,B)∈T(A, B) \in \mathcal T(A,B)∈T.

A tree-decomposition (T,τ)(T, \tau)(T,τ) of GGG is a tree TTT and subhypergraphs τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t), t∈V(T)t \in V(T)t∈V(T), whose union is GGG, which are pairwise edge-disjoint, and with τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′)\tau(t) \cap \tau(t'') \subseteq \tau(t')τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′) whenever t′t't′ lies on the path of TTT between ttt and t′′t''t′′.

A design is a pair (H,M)(H, M)(H,M) of a hypergraph HHH and a set MMM of subsets of V(H)V(H)V(H).

  • The design of a node t0t_0t0​ of (T,τ)(T, \tau)(T,τ) with neighbours t1,…,tkt_1, \dots, t_kt1​,…,tk​ is (τ(t0),{V(τ(t0)∩τ(ti))})(\tau(t_0), \{V(\tau(t_0) \cap \tau(t_i))\})(τ(t0​),{V(τ(t0​)∩τ(ti​))}). A tree-decomposition is over a class S\mathcal SS of designs if the design of every node belongs to S\mathcal SS.
  • (H′,M′)(H', M')(H′,M′) is an nnn-enlargement of (H,M)(H, M)(H,M) if, for some Z⊆V(H′)Z \subseteq V(H')Z⊆V(H′) with ∣Z∣≤n|Z| \le n∣Z∣≤n, H⊆H′H \subseteq H'H⊆H′, V(H′)−V(H)⊆ZV(H') - V(H) \subseteq ZV(H′)−V(H)⊆Z, E(H′)⊆E(H)E(H') \subseteq E(H)E(H′)⊆E(H), and X∩V(H)∈MX \cap V(H) \in MX∩V(H)∈M for every X∈M′X \in M'X∈M′ other than ZZZ. Sn\mathcal S^nSn is the class of nnn-enlargements of members of S\mathcal SS, and Rn\mathcal R_nRn​ is the class of designs with at most nnn vertices.
  • A location in G′G'G′ is a set of separations (Ai,Bi)(A_i, B_i)(Ai​,Bi​) of G′G'G′ with Ai⊆BjA_i \subseteq B_jAi​⊆Bj​ for i≠ji \ne ji=j. Its design is (G′∩B1∩⋯∩Bk,{V(Ai∩Bi)})(G' \cap B_1 \cap \dots \cap B_k, \{V(A_i \cap B_i)\})(G′∩B1​∩⋯∩Bk​,{V(Ai​∩Bi​)}).
  • A class S\mathcal SS is θ\thetaθ-pervasive in GGG if for every subhypergraph G′⊆GG' \subseteq GG′⊆G and every tangle T\mathcal TT in G′G'G′ of order ≥θ\ge \theta≥θ, some location L⊆T\mathcal L \subseteq \mathcal TL⊆T in G′G'G′ has its design in S\mathcal SS.
  • The ZZZ-extension of (H,M)(H, M)(H,M) is (H,M∪{Z})(H, M \cup \{Z\})(H,M∪{Z}).

Formalization targets

Goal: (11.1), p. 185

For θ≥1\theta \ge 1θ≥1 and a class S\mathcal SS that is θ\thetaθ-pervasive in GGG,

G has a tree-decomposition over S3θ−2∪R4θ−3.G \text{ has a tree-decomposition over } \mathcal S^{3\theta-2} \cup \mathcal R_{4\theta-3}.G has a tree-decomposition over S3θ−2∪R4θ−3​.

Milestone: (11.2), pp. 185–186

If S\mathcal SS is θ\thetaθ-pervasive in GGG and ∣Z∣=3θ−2|Z| = 3\theta - 2∣Z∣=3θ−2, then either some separation (A,B)(A, B)(A,B) of order <θ< \theta<θ has

∣(Z∪V(A))∩V(B)∣, ∣(Z∪V(B))∩V(A)∣≤3θ−3,|(Z \cup V(A)) \cap V(B)|,\ |(Z \cup V(B)) \cap V(A)| \le 3\theta - 3,∣(Z∪V(A))∩V(B)∣, ∣(Z∪V(B))∩V(A)∣≤3θ−3,

or some location {(Ai,Bi)}\{(A_i, B_i)\}{(Ai​,Bi​)} in GGG with design in S\mathcal SS has ∣Z∩V(Ai)∣≤∣V(Ai∩Bi)∣<θ|Z \cap V(A_i)| \le |V(A_i \cap B_i)| < \theta∣Z∩V(Ai​)∣≤∣V(Ai​∩Bi​)∣<θ for all iii.

Milestone: (11.3), p. 186

If ∣Z∣≤3θ−2|Z| \le 3\theta - 2∣Z∣≤3θ−2, there is a tree-decomposition of GGG over S′=S3θ−2∪R4θ−3\mathcal S' = \mathcal S^{3\theta-2} \cup \mathcal R_{4\theta-3}S′=S3θ−2∪R4θ−3​ with a node t0t_0t0​ such that Z⊆V(τ(t0))Z \subseteq V(\tau(t_0))Z⊆V(τ(t0​)) and the ZZZ-extension of the design of t0t_0t0​ is in S′\mathcal S'S′. The goal is the case Z=∅Z = \emptysetZ=∅.

Companion: the remark on p. 188

For every θ≥1\theta \ge 1θ≥1, if GGG has no tangle of order θ\thetaθ, then

ω(G)≤4θ−4.\omega(G) \le 4\theta - 4.ω(G)≤4θ−4.

Consequently ω(G)≤4θ(G)\omega(G) \le 4\theta(G)ω(G)≤4θ(G), where θ(G)\theta(G)θ(G) is the tangle number. This is the p. 188 remark following (11.3).

Significance

(11.1) converts local information, stated tangle by tangle, into a global decomposition. Every piece of the decomposition is either small (at most 4θ−34\theta - 34θ−3 vertices) or differs from a structure in S\mathcal SS by at most 3θ−23\theta - 23θ−2 added vertices. This is the kind of local-to-global step the later Graph Minors papers need: there the local structure near each high-order tangle is a near-embedding in a surface, and a result of this shape glues such local structures along a tree. With S=∅\mathcal S = \emptysetS=∅ it gives a tree-width bound ω(G)≤4θ(G)\omega(G) \le 4\theta(G)ω(G)≤4θ(G), a weaker form of the tangle/tree-width duality.

The result has been proved since 1991. To our knowledge no proof assistant formalizes it, and none formalizes the hypergraph tangles or tree-decompositions of this paper. This mission produces machine-checked statements of the paper's notions of design, enlargement, location and pervasiveness, the structure theorem, and its inductive strengthening.

Difficulty

The first idea is to take the pieces in S\mathcal SS themselves as the pieces of the tree-decomposition. That fails, and the paper says so: the pieces can only almost have the structure. Locations for different tangles interact, and the decomposition must absorb up to 3θ−23\theta - 23θ−2 extra vertices into each piece. The induction also has to control a set ZZZ of attachment vertices of bounded size: a piece built at one node must still accept the vertices through which it is glued to the rest of the tree. Keeping ∣Z∣≤3θ−2|Z| \le 3\theta - 2∣Z∣≤3θ−2 throughout the recursion is the delicate point, and it is why the strengthened statement (11.3), not (11.1), is the one that admits induction.

Formalization scope

  • Hypergraphs. A hypergraph is a structure Hypergraph V E with an incidence relation. Finiteness is [Finite V] [Finite E] on every theorem. Subhypergraphs, separations, tangles and tree-decompositions are the series' shared encodings (namespace RobertsonSeymour1991.GM10.Structure). The tree of a tree-decomposition is a SimpleGraph on Fin n satisfying IsTree.
  • Designs. Every design the statements involve has as hypergraph a subhypergraph of the fixed GGG. So a design is a GGG-design G.Sub × Set (Set V), and a class of designs is a set of GGG-designs. Classes need not be closed under isomorphism; the paper never uses that.
  • Relative tangles. Separations, tangles and locations in a subhypergraph G′G'G′ are pairs of subhypergraphs of GGG whose union is G′G'G′. For G′=GG' = GG′=G they agree definitionally with the absolute notions.
  • Pervasiveness. It quantifies over every subhypergraph G′G'G′ and every order θ′≥θ\theta' \ge \thetaθ′≥θ. Restricting to G′=GG' = GG′=G would be a different, stronger theorem. The paper's opening remark in the proof of (11.3), that pervasiveness passes to subhypergraphs, is immediate in this encoding and is not a separate item.
  • Edge cases. The empty set is a location; its design is (G′,∅)(G', \emptyset)(G′,∅).
  • Integer arithmetic. Since θ≥1\theta \ge 1θ≥1, the bounds 3θ−23\theta-23θ−2, 3θ−33\theta-33θ−3 and 4θ−34\theta-34θ−3 are exact natural numbers. Tree-width is an integer, and it is −1-1−1 for an empty vertex set.
  • No trivial instances. IsPervasive is satisfiable: the class of all designs is θ\thetaθ-pervasive, through the empty location. The conclusion is satisfiable too: the one-node decomposition lies over R∣V(G)∣\mathcal R_{|V(G)|}R∣V(G)∣​. So neither the hypothesis nor the conclusion of (11.1) is vacuous.

The other main results of the paper are separate missions of this series:

  • Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition I (tangle number versus branch-width);
  • II (branch-width versus tree-width);
  • III (the grid tangle);
  • IV (the tree-decomposition separating mutually distinguishable tangles).

Contributions are welcome on any item: proofs of (11.2) and (11.3), and of the p. 188 companion. The companion needs two auxiliary facts: a tangle of order ≥θ\ge \theta≥θ in a subhypergraph yields one of order θ\thetaθ in GGG, and tree-width is bounded by bag size.

Selected references

  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(91)90061-n
  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. XVI. Excluding a non-planar graph, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 89 (2003) 43–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0095-8956(03)00042-X
  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. V. Excluding a planar graph, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 41 (1986) 92–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(86)90030-4
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CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition II: Branch-Width and Tree-Width Satisfy max(β, γ) ≤ ω + 1 ≤ max(⌊3β/2⌋, γ, 1)Research Paper

Motivation

Tree-width measures how closely a graph resembles a tree. It is the central width parameter of the Graph Minors series of N. Robertson and P. D. Seymour, which proves that finite graphs are well-quasi-ordered by the minor relation, and it governs the complexity of many algorithms: problems that are NP-hard in general become solvable in linear time on graphs of bounded tree-width (Courcelle's theorem). Branch-width, introduced in Graph Minors X (Robertson, Seymour 1991), is a second width parameter, defined from ternary trees whose leaves carry the edges of the graph. It is the natural parameter for the paper's main minimax theorem, which equates branch-width with the maximum order of a tangle, the obstruction to small decompositions.

Section 5 of Graph Minors X shows that the two parameters are equivalent, within a factor 3/2. This is what transfers the tangle duality from branch-width to tree-width, and it is why later work (for instance on matroid branch-width and on rank-width) treats branch-width as an interchangeable substitute for tree-width.

Setting

All objects are finite. A hypergraph GGG has a vertex set V(G)V(G)V(G), an edge set E(G)E(G)E(G), and an incidence relation; the ends of an edge are the vertices incident with it, and an edge may have any number of ends. γ(G)\gamma(G)γ(G) is the maximum number of ends of an edge, or 000 if E(G)=∅E(G)=\emptysetE(G)=∅. A subhypergraph consists of subsets of V(G)V(G)V(G) and E(G)E(G)E(G) such that every end of a chosen edge is a chosen vertex; unions, intersections and inclusion of subhypergraphs are taken setwise.

A tree is a connected non-null graph without circuits; its leaves are its vertices of valency at most 111, and it is ternary if every valency is 111 or 333.

A branch-decomposition of GGG is a pair (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) with TTT a ternary tree and τ\tauτ a bijection from the leaves of TTT onto E(G)E(G)E(G). The order of an edge fff of TTT is the number of vertices vvv of GGG such that vvv is an end both of an edge labelling a leaf in one component of T∖fT\setminus fT∖f and of an edge labelling a leaf in the other. The width of (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) is the maximum order of an edge of TTT, and the branch-width β(G)\beta(G)β(G) is the minimum width, or 000 if ∣E(G)∣≤1|E(G)|\le 1∣E(G)∣≤1.

A tree-decomposition of GGG is a pair (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) with TTT a tree and τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) a subhypergraph of GGG for every t∈V(T)t\in V(T)t∈V(T), such that

  1. the union of all τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) is GGG;
  2. for distinct t,t′t,t't,t′, the parts τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) and τ(t′)\tau(t')τ(t′) share no edge;
  3. if t′t't′ lies on the path of TTT between ttt and t′′t''t′′, then τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′)\tau(t)\cap\tau(t'')\subseteq\tau(t')τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′).

Its width is max⁡t (∣V(τ(t))∣−1)\max_t\,(|V(\tau(t))|-1)maxt​(∣V(τ(t))∣−1), and the tree-width ω(G)\omega(G)ω(G) is the minimum width; ω(G)=−1\omega(G)=-1ω(G)=−1 exactly when V(G)=∅V(G)=\emptysetV(G)=∅. Each part is a subhypergraph and each edge lies in exactly one part, which differs from the familiar vertex-bag tree-decompositions of graphs, but gives the same tree-width on graphs.

The tangle number θ(G)\theta(G)θ(G) is the maximum order of a tangle in GGG (p. 154), or 000 if there are none.

Formalization targets

Goal: (5.1)

max⁡(β(G),γ(G))  ≤  ω(G)+1  ≤  max⁡(⌊32β(G)⌋, γ(G), 1)for every finite hypergraph G.\max\bigl(\beta(G),\gamma(G)\bigr)\;\le\;\omega(G)+1\;\le\;\max\bigl(\lfloor\tfrac32\beta(G)\rfloor,\ \gamma(G),\ 1\bigr)\qquad\text{for every finite hypergraph } G.max(β(G),γ(G))≤ω(G)+1≤max(⌊23​β(G)⌋, γ(G), 1)for every finite hypergraph G.

Milestones

  • Second inequality of (5.1): ω(G)+1≤max⁡(⌊32β(G)⌋,γ(G),1)\omega(G)+1\le\max(\lfloor\tfrac32\beta(G)\rfloor,\gamma(G),1)ω(G)+1≤max(⌊23​β(G)⌋,γ(G),1).
  • Claims (1), (2), (3) of the proof of (5.1), under the proof's standing assumptions γ(G)>0\gamma(G)>0γ(G)>0, ∣E(G)∣≥2|E(G)|\ge 2∣E(G)∣≥2 and no isolated vertices: there is a tree-decomposition of width ω(G)\omega(G)ω(G) in which (1) every edge eee is the only edge of a leaf part whose vertices are exactly the ends of eee, and parts at vertices of valency ≥2\ge2≥2 have no edges; (2) moreover every leaf part has exactly one edge; (3) moreover every vertex of TTT has valency at most 333. The claims are cumulative.
  • First inequality of (5.1): max⁡(β(G),γ(G))≤ω(G)+1\max(\beta(G),\gamma(G))\le\omega(G)+1max(β(G),γ(G))≤ω(G)+1.

Companion: (5.2)

θ(G)  ≤  ω(G)+1  ≤  32 θ(G).\theta(G)\;\le\;\omega(G)+1\;\le\;\tfrac32\,\theta(G).θ(G)≤ω(G)+1≤23​θ(G).

Significance

The result. (5.1) shows that branch-width and tree-width bound each other up to the factor 3/23/23/2 and the edge-size correction, and the page records that both bounds are attained (KnK_nKn​ with 3∣n3\mid n3∣n for the right-hand side, Kn,nK_{n,n}Kn,n​ minus a perfect matching for the left-hand side). Together with the minimax theorem (4.3) of the same paper, max⁡(β(G),γ(G))=θ(G)\max(\beta(G),\gamma(G))=\theta(G)max(β(G),γ(G))=θ(G) unless γ(G)=0\gamma(G)=0γ(G)=0 and V(G)≠∅V(G)\ne\emptysetV(G)=∅, it yields (5.2): tangles are, up to the factor 3/23/23/2, the exact obstruction to tree-decompositions of small width. That duality is the form in which tree-width enters the later papers of the Graph Minors series.

Formalizing it. The result is proved (1991); no machine-checked proof of it is known to exist. The platform holds tree-width statements for simple graphs with vertex bags (Graph Minors V, RobertsonSeymour1986.GM5.treewidth_le_theta9 and excluding_planar_graph), which are a different theorem about a different object. This mission formalizes the hypergraph tree-decomposition and branch-decomposition of Graph Minors X and the comparison between them. The companion missions of this series are Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition I (the minimax theorem (4.3)), III (the grid tangle (7.3)), IV (the tree-decomposition separating distinguishable tangles (10.3)) and V (the structure theorem (11.1)).

Difficulty

The second inequality converts a branch-decomposition into a tree-decomposition; the difficulty is to obtain the bound with the floor ⌊32β⌋\lfloor\tfrac32\beta\rfloor⌊23​β⌋ and the separate γ(G)\gamma(G)γ(G) term exactly, not up to an additive error.

The first inequality is where the obvious approach stalls: a tree-decomposition of minimum width is not a branch-decomposition. Its tree may have vertices of any valency, its leaves may carry no edge or several, and an edge may sit at an internal vertex. The three claims of the proof normalize an optimal tree-decomposition step by step without increasing its width. Each step modifies a tree on a finite vertex type while preserving three structural conditions (covering, edge-disjointness, the path condition), and the final step, suppressing vertices of valency 222, must be shown to produce a ternary tree with the edge orders bounded by part sizes. Most of the formal work is this tree surgery.

Formalization scope

  • Every theorem quantifies over types V, E with [Finite V] [Finite E] (the paper's "all hypergraphs in this paper are finite", p. 154) and a hypergraph G : Hypergraph V E given by its incidence relation.
  • Trees are SimpleGraph (Fin n) with IsTree (connected, hence non-null, and acyclic). A leaf is a vertex of valency at most 111; valency is (T.neighborSet t).ncard.
  • A branch-decomposition stores τ\tauτ as its inverse, an injective map from edges onto the leaves. β(G)\beta(G)β(G) is set to 000 when ∣E(G)∣≤1|E(G)|\le1∣E(G)∣≤1 and is otherwise the sInf of the widths, which is a genuine minimum because a branch-decomposition exists when ∣E(G)∣≥2|E(G)|\ge2∣E(G)∣≥2.
  • Widths of tree-decompositions are integers, so that ω(G)=−1\omega(G)=-1ω(G)=−1 when V(G)=∅V(G)=\emptysetV(G)=∅. ω(G)\omega(G)ω(G) is the sInf in Z\mathbb ZZ of all www bounding every ∣V(τ(t))∣−1|V(\tau(t))|-1∣V(τ(t))∣−1; the set is nonempty (one-vertex tree with τ=G\tau=Gτ=G) and bounded below by −1-1−1, so the sInf is the minimum width and not a junk value.
  • ⌊32β(G)⌋\lfloor\tfrac32\beta(G)\rfloor⌊23​β(G)⌋ is the natural-number division 3 * β / 2; the ceiling would be a weaker statement. In (5.2), ω(G)+1≤32θ(G)\omega(G)+1\le\tfrac32\theta(G)ω(G)+1≤23​θ(G) is stated as 2(ω(G)+1)≤3θ(G)2(\omega(G)+1)\le3\theta(G)2(ω(G)+1)≤3θ(G), which is equivalent.
  • The claims read "we may assume X" as "some tree-decomposition of width ω(G)\omega(G)ω(G) satisfies X", under the proof's standing assumptions γ(G)>0\gamma(G)>0γ(G)>0, ∣E(G)∣≥2|E(G)|\ge2∣E(G)∣≥2 and no isolated vertices (p. 168).
  • Condition (ii) of a tree-decomposition, edge-disjointness of the parts, is kept as on the page. Replacing it by "every edge lies in some part", or allowing an empty tree, would change the tree-width and trivialize the comparison; both are ruled out.

Infrastructure needed and reusable beyond this mission: tree surgery on SimpleGraph (Fin n) (attaching a leaf, deleting a leaf, splitting a vertex, suppressing valency-2 vertices), the existence of branch-decompositions for ∣E∣≥2|E|\ge2∣E∣≥2, and the computation of sInf-defined widths. Contributions of such lemmas, of proofs of the individual claims, and of small examples (KnK_nKn​, grids) are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(91)90061-n
  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. V. Excluding a Planar Graph, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 41 (1986) 92–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(86)90030-4
  • B. Courcelle, The monadic second-order logic of graphs. I. Recognizable sets of finite graphs, Information and Computation 85 (1990) 12–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/0890-5401(90)90043-H
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 41 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Klimov, Pil'tai, Sheptitskaya (1972): 115115115; Riesel–Vaughan (1983): 191919 for all integers, using zero-based prime-counting estimates.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's earlier values (100 001100\,001100001 down to 858585) came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out, using Chebyshev-type lower bounds for π(y)\pi(y)π(y) and a Selberg sieve whose singular-series weight C(s)C(s)C(s) was crude. The 858585 entry hit the limit of that crude weight. This entry replaces it by the sharp weight K(s)=∏p∣s, p>2p−1p−2K(s) = \prod_{p \mid s,\, p > 2} \frac{p-1}{p-2}K(s)=∏p∣s,p>2​p−2p−1​, using the platform's proved prime-pair sieve (TaoFivePrimes.siebert_prime_pair_bound, Siebert's bound as used by Riesel–Vaughan) and its PrimePairSieve components. No zeta-zero input is used.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤41, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 41,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤41, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 414141 filled in.

How the bound arises

Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/20\sigma(A) \ge 1/20σ(A)≥1/20, then conclude with Mann's theorem. Write L=log⁡yL = \log yL=logy for the scale and C=2∏p>2(1−(p−1)−2)≤1.3217C = 2\prod_{p>2}(1 - (p-1)^{-2}) \le 1.3217C=2∏p>2​(1−(p−1)−2)≤1.3217 for the twin-prime constant.

  1. Chebyshev's constant a≈0.9212a \approx 0.9212a≈0.9212. For x≥30x \ge 30x≥30, ψ(x)≥ax−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge ax - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥ax−5logx+5 (as in the 858585 entry). Through B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A this covers L<30L < 30L<30.
  2. Small-shift range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, Lemma 8), 30≤L≤200030 \le L \le 200030≤L≤2000. Fix the first 150150150 odd primes p1≤877p_1 \le 877p1​≤877 and let R(s)R(s)R(s) count s=p1+qs = p_1 + qs=p1​+q with qqq prime. The second moment ∑R(s)2\sum R(s)^2∑R(s)2 needs the number of prime pairs (q,q+d)(q, q+d)(q,q+d), which Siebert's bound gives as at most 8C K(d) x/log⁡2x8C\,K(d)\,x/\log^2 x8CK(d)x/log2x with no error term. The kernel sum ∑p2<p1K(p1−p2)≤19496\sum_{p_2 < p_1} K(p_1 - p_2) \le 19496∑p2​<p1​​K(p1​−p2​)≤19496 is a finite kernel computation. Cauchy–Schwarz gives #{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/39\#\{s \le y : R(s) > 0\} \ge y/39#{s≤y:R(s)>0}≥y/39 on this range.
  3. Large range L≥2000L \ge 2000L≥2000. A Goldbach analogue of Siebert's bound, r(s)≤8C K(s) (s+1)/log⁡2(s+1)+s+1/2+2r(s) \le 8C\,K(s)\,(s+1)/\log^2(s+1) + \sqrt{s+1}/2 + 2r(s)≤8CK(s)(s+1)/log2(s+1)+s+1​/2+2 for even sss, comes from the platform's weighted large-sieve bound for sifted sets applied to {p:s−p prime}\{p : s - p \text{ prime}\}{p:s−p prime} with the shift d=2sP−sd = 2sP - sd=2sP−s (PPP the primorial of the sieve level, so p∣d  ⟺  p∣sp \mid d \iff p \mid sp∣d⟺p∣s for sieving primes), the divisor-kernel comparison and the base-denominator threshold. Combined with the weighted first moment ∑r(s)log⁡2s/s≥0.8477 n\sum r(s)\log^2 s/s \ge 0.8477\,n∑r(s)log2s/s≥0.8477n, the twelfth moment ∑s≤x evenK(s)12≤19500 x\sum_{s \le x \text{ even}} K(s)^{12} \le 19500\,x∑s≤x even​K(s)12≤19500x and Hölder, this gives #{s≤n:r(s)>0}≥n/39\#\{s \le n : r(s) > 0\} \ge n/39#{s≤n:r(s)>0}≥n/39.
  4. Mann's theorem turns 20 σ(A)≥120\,\sigma(A) \ge 120σ(A)≥1 into 20A=Z≥020A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}20A=Z≥0​, so every odd n≥123n \ge 123n≥123 is a sum of 404040 odd primes plus one 333; odd 83≤n<12383 \le n < 12383≤n<123 use twos and threes to make exactly 414141, and smaller nnn use one 333 and twos: K=2⋅20+1=41K = 2 \cdot 20 + 1 = 41K=2⋅20+1=41.

Significance

The argument stays elementary: no prime number theorem and no zeros of ζ\zetaζ or LLL-functions. New reusable components:

  1. A Goldbach analogue of Siebert's prime-pair bound with the sharp singular-series weight K(s)K(s)K(s), built from the platform's PrimePairSieve nodes.
  2. The Riesel–Vaughan small-shift argument driven by Siebert's bound.
  3. An explicit twelfth-moment bound for K(s)K(s)K(s).

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 414141 in place of the value. Already proved on the platform and imported: TaoFivePrimes.siebert_prime_pair_bound, PrimePairSieve_reciprocal_weighted_sifted_bound, PrimePairSieve.divisor_kernel_comparison, PrimePairSieve.reciprocal_base_denominator_dominates_threshold, PrimePairSieve.sieve_constants_certificate, Schnir.basis_of_density.

Selected references

  • H. Riesel, R. C. Vaughan, On sums of primes, Ark. Mat. 21 (1983), 45–74.
  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • Chebyshev's lower bound as formalized in PrimeNumberTheoremAnd (PrimeNumberTheoremAnd/IEANTN/Chebyshev.lean).
  • H.-E. Siebert, Montgomery's weighted sieve for dimension two, Monatsh. Math. 82 (1976), 327–336.
  • Explicit improvement of the 858585 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 414141; not peer reviewed.
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CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: wurtle

APSP in O(n^2.9983) via All-Edges Exact TriangleResearch Paper

All-pairs shortest paths (APSP) computes the shortest distance between every pair of vertices in a weighted graph.

We strengthen the previously formalized O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) bound to O(n2.9983)O(n^{2.9983})O(n2.9983) for deterministic APSP on directed graphs with polynomially bounded integer weights and no negative cycles, using the same word-RAM model. It formalizes the improvement outlined by Alman and Vassilevska Williams in their conclusion.

References:

  1. Josh Alman and Virginia Vassilevska Williams, Truly Subquadratic 3SUM and Truly Subcubic APSP via Triangles in Sparse Lopsided Graphs, 2026, Theorems 17 and 19 and conclusion footnote 10.
  2. Virginia Vassilevska Williams and Ryan Williams, Finding, Minimizing, and Counting Weighted Subgraphs, 2013, Theorem 3.3 and Proposition 3.4.
  3. Virginia Vassilevska Williams and Ryan Williams, Subcubic Equivalences Between Path, Matrix, and Triangle Problems, 2018, Theorem 4.2.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Weak Limit Theorems for Stochastic Integrals and Stochastic Differential Equations: Under C2.2(i), (Xₙ, Yₙ) ⇒ (X, Y) in the Skorohod Topology Implies (Xₙ, Yₙ, ∫Xₙ dYₙ) ⇒ (X, Y, ∫X dY)Research Paper

Motivation

Many approximation results in probability and operations research take the form of a sequence of discrete or jump-driven systems converging to a diffusion or another limit process. When the approximating systems are written as stochastic integral equations, Xn(t)=Xn(0)+∫0tσ(Xn(s−)) dYn(s)X_n(t) = X_n(0) + \int_0^t \sigma(X_n(s-))\,dY_n(s)Xn​(t)=Xn​(0)+∫0t​σ(Xn​(s−))dYn​(s), the key step is to show that the stochastic integrals converge whenever the integrands and the integrators converge. That this is not automatic was known from the work of Wong and Zakai (1965): smooth approximations of Brownian motion produce a Stratonovich, not an Itô, limit. Kurtz and Protter (1991) give a condition on the integrators under which convergence in distribution of the pair (integrand, integrator) in the Skorohod topology implies convergence in distribution of the triple (integrand, integrator, integral). The result is essentially the theorem of Jakubowski, Mémin and Pagès (1989), with a formulation and proof that avoid the general theory of semimartingale characteristics. It underlies diffusion approximations for queueing and storage networks, approximation schemes for stochastic differential equations, and limit theorems for statistics and filters that are written as stochastic integrals.

Setting

Time is [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). A path x:[0,∞)→Ex:[0,\infty)\to Ex:[0,∞)→E in a metric space EEE is cadlag if it is right-continuous and has a left limit x(t−)x(t-)x(t−) at every t>0t>0t>0; DE[0,∞)D_E[0,\infty)DE​[0,∞) is the set of cadlag paths, and x(0−)=x(0)x(0-)=x(0)x(0−)=x(0). Let Λ\LambdaΛ be the set of continuous, strictly increasing maps of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) onto itself. Cadlag paths xnx_nxn​ converge to xxx in the Skorohod (J1) topology if there are λn∈Λ\lambda_n\in\Lambdaλn​∈Λ with xn∘λn(t)→x(t)x_n\circ\lambda_n(t)\to x(t)xn​∘λn​(t)→x(t) and λn(t)→t\lambda_n(t)\to tλn​(t)→t uniformly on bounded intervals. For a product space E1×E2E_1\times E_2E1​×E2​ the pair (xn,yn)(x_n,y_n)(xn​,yn​) converges if one sequence λn\lambda_nλn​ serves both components; this is strictly stronger than convergence of each component.

Let Mkm\mathbb M^{km}Mkm be the real k×mk\times mk×m matrices. For a Mkm\mathbb M^{km}Mkm-valued process XXX and an Rm\mathbb R^mRm-valued process YYY, the stochastic integral (1.7) is

∫0tX(s−) dY(s)=lim⁡∑iX(ti)(Y(ti+1)−Y(ti)),\int_0^t X(s-)\,dY(s)=\lim\sum_i X(t_i)\big(Y(t_{i+1})-Y(t_i)\big),∫0t​X(s−)dY(s)=limi∑​X(ti​)(Y(ti+1​)−Y(ti​)),

the limit in probability along partitions {ti}\{t_i\}{ti​} of [0,t][0,t][0,t] whose mesh tends to zero. Throughout, ∫X dY\int X\,dY∫XdY means ∫X(s−) dY(s)\int X(s-)\,dY(s)∫X(s−)dY(s). An {Ft}\{\mathcal F_t\}{Ft​}-adapted cadlag process YYY is a semimartingale if Y=M+AY=M+AY=M+A with MMM an {Ft}\{\mathcal F_t\}{Ft​}-local martingale and AAA of finite variation on bounded intervals, with total variation Tt(A)T_t(A)Tt​(A) on [0,t][0,t][0,t]. [M][M][M] denotes the quadratic variation.

For δ∈(0,∞]\delta\in(0,\infty]δ∈(0,∞] let hδ(r)=(1−δ/r)+h_\delta(r)=(1-\delta/r)^+hδ​(r)=(1−δ/r)+ and

Jδ(x)(t)=∑s≤thδ(∣x(s)−x(s−)∣)(x(s)−x(s−)),J_\delta(x)(t)=\sum_{s\le t}h_\delta\big(|x(s)-x(s-)|\big)\big(x(s)-x(s-)\big),Jδ​(x)(t)=s≤t∑​hδ​(∣x(s)−x(s−)∣)(x(s)−x(s−)),

which collects the part of the jumps larger than δ\deltaδ; Yδ=Y−Jδ(Y)Y^\delta=Y-J_\delta(Y)Yδ=Y−Jδ​(Y) then has jumps of size at most δ\deltaδ. Condition C2.2(i) on a sequence YnY_nYn​ asks for decompositions Ynδ=Mnδ+AnδY_n^\delta=M_n^\delta+A_n^\deltaYnδ​=Mnδ​+Anδ​ such that for each α>0\alpha>0α>0 there are stopping times τnα\tau_n^\alphaτnα​ with P{τnα≤α}≤1/αP\{\tau_n^\alpha\le\alpha\}\le1/\alphaP{τnα​≤α}≤1/α and sup⁡nE[[Mnδ]t∧τnα+Tt∧τnα(Anδ)]<∞\sup_nE\big[[M_n^\delta]_{t\wedge\tau_n^\alpha}+T_{t\wedge\tau_n^\alpha}(A_n^\delta)\big]<\inftysupn​E[[Mnδ​]t∧τnα​​+Tt∧τnα​​(Anδ​)]<∞. ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ denotes convergence in distribution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2 (distributional part)

For each nnn, let (Xn,Yn)(X_n,Y_n)(Xn​,Yn​) be {Ftn}\{\mathcal F^n_t\}{Ftn​}-adapted with paths in DMkm×Rm[0,∞)D_{\mathbb M^{km}\times\mathbb R^m}[0,\infty)DMkm×Rm​[0,∞), YnY_nYn​ an {Ftn}\{\mathcal F^n_t\}{Ftn​}-semimartingale satisfying C2.2(i) for some δ∈(0,∞]\delta\in(0,\infty]δ∈(0,∞]. If (Xn,Yn)⇒(X,Y)(X_n,Y_n)\Rightarrow(X,Y)(Xn​,Yn​)⇒(X,Y) in the Skorohod topology on DMkm×Rm[0,∞)D_{\mathbb M^{km}\times\mathbb R^m}[0,\infty)DMkm×Rm​[0,∞), then YYY is a semimartingale with respect to a filtration to which XXX and YYY are adapted, and

(Xn, Yn, ∫Xn dYn)⇒(X, Y, ∫X dY)in DMkm×Rm×Rk[0,∞).\Big(X_n,\,Y_n,\,\int X_n\,dY_n\Big)\Rightarrow\Big(X,\,Y,\,\int X\,dY\Big)\quad\text{in }D_{\mathbb M^{km}\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^k}[0,\infty).(Xn​,Yn​,∫Xn​dYn​)⇒(X,Y,∫XdY)in DMkm×Rm×Rk​[0,∞).

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • Lemma 2.1: time-change-equivariant maps that are continuous for local uniform convergence are Skorohod-continuous, jointly with their argument.
  • Continuity of JδJ_\deltaJδ​ (after (2.1)): (xn,Jδ(xn))→(x,Jδ(x))(x_n,J_\delta(x_n))\to(x,J_\delta(x))(xn​,Jδ​(xn​))→(x,Jδ​(x)) and (xn,xn−Jδ(xn))→(x,x−Jδ(x))(x_n,x_n-J_\delta(x_n))\to(x,x-J_\delta(x))(xn​,xn​−Jδ​(xn​))→(x,x−Jδ​(x)).
  • Lemma 6.2: a sequential characterization of Skorohod convergence.
  • The step approximation IεI_\varepsilonIε​ of §6, with r(z(t),Iε(z)(t))≤εr(z(t),I_\varepsilon(z)(t))\le\varepsilonr(z(t),Iε​(z)(t))≤ε.
  • Lemma 6.1: zn→zz_n\to zzn​→z implies (zn,Iε(zn))→(z,Iε(z))(z_n,I_\varepsilon(z_n))\to(z,I_\varepsilon(z))(zn​,Iε​(zn​))→(z,Iε​(z)) almost surely in the random thresholds.
  • (1.12)–(1.13): integrals against step functions with uniformly bounded jump counts converge, jointly with integrand and integrator.
  • (2.2): ∫xn(s−) dJδ(yn)(s)→∫x(s−) dJδ(y)(s)\int x_n(s-)\,dJ_\delta(y_n)(s)\to\int x(s-)\,dJ_\delta(y)(s)∫xn​(s−)dJδ​(yn​)(s)→∫x(s−)dJδ​(y)(s).
  • (2.7): E[sup⁡s≤t∧τ∣R(s)∣]≤ε(2E[[M]t∧τ]1/2+E[Tt∧τ(A)])E\big[\sup_{s\le t\wedge\tau}|R(s)|\big]\le\varepsilon\big(2E[[M]_{t\wedge\tau}]^{1/2}+E[T_{t\wedge\tau}(A)]\big)E[sups≤t∧τ​∣R(s)∣]≤ε(2E[[M]t∧τ​]1/2+E[Tt∧τ​(A)]) for R=∫H d(M+A)R=\int H\,d(M+A)R=∫Hd(M+A) with ∣H∣≤ε|H|\le\varepsilon∣H∣≤ε.
  • Remark 2.4: the limit YYY is a semimartingale.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.2 reduces convergence of stochastic integrals to two checks: joint convergence of integrand and integrator, and the uniform control C2.2(i) on the integrators. Remarks 2.3 and 2.5 give simple sufficient conditions (stochastic boundedness of Tt(Anδ)T_t(A_n^\delta)Tt​(Anδ​) plus a second-moment bound; relative compactness for a fixed integrator), and Section 5 of the paper derives from it weak limit theorems for stochastic differential equations driven by semimartingales, including Wong–Zakai-type corrections. Without the theorem, each diffusion approximation that passes through an integral equation needs its own ad hoc argument.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved and classical; nothing here is open. Lean's Mathlib has no Skorohod space, no stochastic integral against a semimartingale and no semimartingale, so the mission produces the first machine-checked definitions of J1 convergence on DE[0,∞)D_E[0,\infty)DE​[0,∞), of the left-point stochastic integral (1.7), and of convergence in distribution of cadlag processes, together with the deterministic facts about them that a proof of Theorem 2.2 needs. The definitions are meant to be reused by later missions on weak convergence of processes and on stochastic differential equations (the paper's Theorem 5.4 is planned as a follow-up that references them).

Difficulty

The obvious argument — the integral is a continuous function of the pair (integrand, integrator), so the continuous mapping theorem applies — fails in two ways. First, the map (x,y)↦∫x(s−) dy(s)(x,y)\mapsto\int x(s-)\,dy(s)(x,y)↦∫x(s−)dy(s) is not continuous in the Skorohod topology, and for a general semimartingale integrator it is not even defined path by path. Example 1.1 makes the failure concrete: with X=Y=Xn=χ[1,∞)X=Y=X_n=\chi_{[1,\infty)}X=Y=Xn​=χ[1,∞)​ and Yn=χ[1+1/n,∞)Y_n=\chi_{[1+1/n,\infty)}Yn​=χ[1+1/n,∞)​, each component converges, yet ∫0tXn dYn=1\int_0^tX_n\,dY_n=1∫0t​Xn​dYn​=1 for t>1+1/nt>1+1/nt>1+1/n while ∫0tX dY=0\int_0^tX\,dY=0∫0t​XdY=0, because the jumps of integrand and integrator coalesce in the wrong order; joint convergence of the pair excludes this. Second, Example 1.2 shows that joint convergence is still not enough: integrators whose variation grows without bound (piecewise linear interpolations of Brownian motion) produce an extra drift 12t\tfrac12t21​t in the limit. C2.2(i) is the condition that excludes this, and the identification of the limit integral also requires knowing that the limit YYY is a semimartingale, which is not given.

Formalization scope

Time is ℝ≥0; a process is a map ℝ≥0 → Ω → E. Rm\mathbb R^mRm is Fin m → ℝ and Mkm\mathbb M^{km}Mkm is Fin k → Fin m → ℝ, with the sup metric; products carry the max metric (J1 convergence does not depend on the product metric). The conventions the formal statements commit to:

  • "xn→xx_n\to xxn​→x in the Skorohod topology" is the sequential definition of pp. 1037–1038 with one time change sequence; "uniformly for ttt in bounded intervals" is uniformly on [0,T][0,T][0,T] for every TTT. For a pair or a triple the time change is shared by all components.
  • "⇒\Rightarrow⇒" is convergence in distribution in coupling form: a probability space carrying copies of the processes and of the limit, with almost sure Skorohod convergence. Laws are taken on the product σ-algebra of path space; for the finite-dimensional state spaces here this is equivalent to weak convergence of the laws on DE[0,∞)D_E[0,\infty)DE​[0,∞).
  • The coupling relation is defined for Polish state spaces with their Borel σ-algebras. Every state space in the probabilistic milestones is a finite-dimensional real product and satisfies this requirement.
  • ∫X dY\int X\,dY∫XdY is the in-probability limit of left-point Riemann sums (1.7) over all partition sequences with mesh tending to zero, with cadlag paths. The prelimit integrals are given processes with this property; the limit integral is produced in the conclusion.
  • The semimartingale conclusion of Theorem 2.2 is stated for a copy of (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) on a space that may carry extra randomness, with a filtration making both adapted.
  • In C2.2(i) the free ttt is universally quantified ("for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0") and the stopping times are chosen before ttt; expectations of nonnegative quantities are taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; t∧τ=tt\wedge\tau=tt∧τ=t when τ=∞\tau=\inftyτ=∞.
  • [M]=∑j[Mj][M]=\sum_j[M_j][M]=∑j​[Mj​] with [M](0)=0[M](0)=0[M](0)=0; since C2.2(i) asks for some decomposition, this agrees with Protter's convention [M](0)=M(0)2[M](0)=M(0)^2[M](0)=M(0)2.
  • In (2.1), ∣x∣=∑i∣xi∣|x|=\sum_i|x_i|∣x∣=∑i​∣xi​∣ (the paper's convention for vectors, p. 1049); in (2.7), Euclidean norms for RRR and T(A)T(A)T(A) and the Frobenius norm for the integrand.
  • "a.s." in Lemma 6.1 refers to the law of the thresholds θk\theta_kθk​, i.i.d. uniform on [12,1][\frac12,1][21​,1], and the null set may depend on the convergent sequence.
  • δ\deltaδ ranges over (0,∞](0,\infty](0,∞], with J∞=0J_\infty=0J∞​=0.

The theorem has trivializing formalizations, all excluded here: componentwise convergence of (Xn,Yn)(X_n,Y_n)(Xn​,Yn​) in place of joint convergence; an integral not pinned to (1.7) (any process would do); and assuming the limit integral, or the semimartingale property of YYY, as a hypothesis.

Local martingales and cross variations reuse the published Ethier–Kurtz definitions EthierKurtz_IsSourceLocalMartingale and EthierKurtz_HasCrossVariation. A complete development needs the Skorohod space and its tightness theory, the stochastic integral against semimartingales (existence and the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy/Doob estimates), and the quasimartingale criterion of Meyer and Zheng. Contributions to any of these layers are welcome; the deterministic milestones (Lemma 2.1, Lemma 6.2, the continuity of JδJ_\deltaJδ​, (1.12)–(1.13), Lemma 6.1) are independent of the probabilistic ones and reusable for any work on the J1 topology.

Selected references

  • T. G. Kurtz and P. Protter, Weak limit theorems for stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, Ann. Probab. 19 (1991), 1035–1070. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990334
  • A. Jakubowski, J. Mémin and G. Pagès, Convergence en loi des suites d'intégrales stochastiques sur l'espace D¹ de Skorokhod, Probab. Theory Related Fields 81 (1989), 111–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00343739
  • S. N. Ethier and T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316658
  • P. Protter, Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, Springer, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02619-9
  • E. Wong and M. Zakai, On the convergence of ordinary integrals to stochastic integrals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 1560–1564. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699916
  • P. A. Meyer and W. A. Zheng, Tightness criteria for laws of semimartingales, Ann. Inst. H. Poincaré Probab. Statist. 20 (1984), 353–372. http://www.numdam.org/item/AIHPB_1984__20_4_353_0/
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Asymptotic Theory for Solutions in Statistical Estimation and Stochastic Programming: Generalized M-Estimates Converge in Distribution to the Inverse Contingent Derivative at a GaussianResearch Paper

Motivation

Maximum likelihood estimates, least-squares fits and sample-average approximations of stochastic programs solve 0=fˉν(x)0 = \bar f^\nu(x)0=fˉ​ν(x), where fˉν\bar f^\nufˉ​ν averages a random integrand over ν\nuν observations. Their classical asymptotic theory rests on the implicit function theorem and needs a smooth, unconstrained problem.

When the estimate is constrained to a set, for example a nonnegativity constraint, a simplex or a polyhedron, the first-order conditions become a generalized equation

0∈f(z,x)+N(x),0 \in f(z, x) + N(x),0∈f(z,x)+N(x),

where NNN is a multifunction such as the normal cone of the constraint set. The same form describes optimality conditions of stochastic programs and variational inequalities. Aitchison and Silvey (1958) treated equality-constrained maximum likelihood. Huber (1967) allowed nonsmooth estimating functions but required an open parameter domain. Dupačová and Wets (1988) and Shapiro (1989) derived limit laws for solutions of stochastic programs under smoothness of the expected gradient. King and Rockafellar (1993) gave a general theory that needs neither smoothness of the expected map nor single-valuedness of NNN: the limit law of the normalized error is the image of a Gaussian under a contingent derivative, a positively homogeneous and generally nonlinear map, so the limit is generally not normal.

Setting

Let ZZZ be a separable Banach space with norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥, and let ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣ be the Euclidean norm on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and Rm\mathbb R^mRm. A multifunction G:Z⇉RnG : Z \rightrightarrows \mathbb R^nG:Z⇉Rn assigns a set G(z)⊆RnG(z) \subseteq \mathbb R^nG(z)⊆Rn to each zzz. Its graph is gph⁡G\operatorname{gph} GgphG and its inverse is G−1(x)={z∣x∈G(z)}G^{-1}(x) = \{z \mid x \in G(z)\}G−1(x)={z∣x∈G(z)}.

For sets AtA_tAt​ indexed by t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0, the upper limit lim sup⁡At\limsup A_tlimsupAt​ consists of the points xxx with x=lim⁡xkx = \lim x_kx=limxk​, xk∈Atkx_k \in A_{t_k}xk​∈Atk​​ for some tk↓0t_k \downarrow 0tk​↓0, and the lower limit of the points reachable along every such sequence. The contingent derivative of GGG at (z,x)∈gph⁡G(z, x) \in \operatorname{gph} G(z,x)∈gphG is the multifunction DG(z∣x)DG(z|x)DG(z∣x) with

gph⁡DG(z∣x)=lim sup⁡t↓0t−1[gph⁡G−(z,x)].\operatorname{gph} DG(z|x) = \limsup_{t \downarrow 0} t^{-1}\big[\operatorname{gph} G - (z,x)\big].gphDG(z∣x)=t↓0limsup​t−1[gphG−(z,x)].

GGG is proto-differentiable when this upper limit equals the lower limit, and semi-differentiable when t−1[G(z+tw′)−x]→DG(z∣x)(w)t^{-1}[G(z + t w') - x] \to DG(z|x)(w)t−1[G(z+tw′)−x]→DG(z∣x)(w) as t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0 and w′→ww' \to ww′→w. A single-valued ggg is B-differentiable at zzz when t−1[g(z+tw′)−g(z)]→Dg(z)(w)t^{-1}[g(z + tw') - g(z)] \to Dg(z)(w)t−1[g(z+tw′)−g(z)]→Dg(z)(w) in the same sense.

The deterministic problem is 0∈f(z,x)+N(x)0 \in f(z, x) + N(x)0∈f(z,x)+N(x) with f:Z×Rn→Rmf : Z \times \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^mf:Z×Rn→Rm, data zzz and solution map J(z)J(z)J(z). At a reference pair (z∗,x∗)(z^*, x^*)(z∗,x∗) set F=f(z∗,⋅)+NF = f(z^*, \cdot) + NF=f(z∗,⋅)+N. The analytical assumptions M.1–M.4 are as follows. fff is jointly continuous and B-differentiable in each variable, with the zzz-derivative Dzf(z∗,x∗)D_z f(z^*, x^*)Dz​f(z∗,x∗) strong (uniform in xxx near x∗x^*x∗). NNN is closed and proto-differentiable. FFF is subinvertible: 0∈F(x∗)0 \in F(x^*)0∈F(x∗), and a closed-graph, convex-valued selection of F−1F^{-1}F−1 near 000 passes through x∗x^*x∗. The contingent derivative DF−1(0∣x∗)DF^{-1}(0|x^*)DF−1(0∣x∗) is at most single-valued.

The statistical problem has i.i.d. random elements s1,s2,…s_1, s_2, \dotss1​,s2​,… of a measurable space SSS and an integrand f:U×S→Rmf : U \times S \to \mathbb R^mf:U×S→Rm on a compact neighborhood UUU of x∗x^*x∗. It satisfies the probabilistic assumptions P.1–P.4: continuity in xxx, measurability in sss, a finite second moment at one point, and a Lipschitz bound ∣f(x1,s)−f(x2,s)∣≤a(s)∣x1−x2∣|f(x_1,s) - f(x_2,s)| \le a(s)|x_1 - x_2|∣f(x1​,s)−f(x2​,s)∣≤a(s)∣x1​−x2​∣ with Ea(s1)2<∞E a(s_1)^2 < \inftyEa(s1​)2<∞. The M-estimate xνx^\nuxν is a measurable solution of

0∈fˉν(x)+N(x),fˉν(x)=1ν∑i=1νf(x,si),0 \in \bar f^\nu(x) + N(x), \qquad \bar f^\nu(x) = \frac1\nu\sum_{i=1}^\nu f(x, s_i),0∈fˉ​ν(x)+N(x),fˉ​ν(x)=ν1​i=1∑ν​f(x,si​),

and the true equation is 0∈Ef(x)+N(x)0 \in Ef(x) + N(x)0∈Ef(x)+N(x) with F=Ef+NF = Ef + NF=Ef+N.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.7 (asymptotic distribution of M-estimates)

Under P.1–P.4 on a compact neighborhood UUU of x∗x^*x∗, B-differentiability of EfEfEf at x∗x^*x∗, and M.2–M.4 for F=Ef+NF = Ef + NF=Ef+N, every sequence of measurable solutions xνx^\nuxν of (2.5) with xν→x∗x^\nu \to x^*xν→x∗ almost surely satisfies

ν [xν−x∗]→ D DF−1(0∣x∗)(−w∗),w∗∼N(0,cov⁡f(x∗,s1)).\sqrt\nu\,[x^\nu - x^*] \xrightarrow{\ \mathcal D\ } DF^{-1}(0|x^*)(-w^*), \qquad w^* \sim \mathcal N\big(0, \operatorname{cov} f(x^*, s_1)\big).ν​[xν−x∗] D ​DF−1(0∣x∗)(−w∗),w∗∼N(0,covf(x∗,s1​)).

The goal fixes the limit law completely: the map is the contingent derivative of F−1F^{-1}F−1, and the Gaussian has the covariance of the integrand at x∗x^*x∗.

Milestones

  • Theorem 2.4 gives bounds in probability, P{∣xν−x∗∣>δ}≤P{αλ∥zν−z∗∥>δ}P\{|x^\nu - x^*| > \delta\} \le P\{\alpha\lambda\|z^\nu - z^*\| > \delta\}P{∣xν−x∗∣>δ}≤P{αλ∥zν−z∗∥>δ}. Its proof uses the upper-Lipschitz property U∩F−1(y)⊆x∗+λ∣y∣BU \cap F^{-1}(y) \subseteq x^* + \lambda|y|BU∩F−1(y)⊆x∗+λ∣y∣B (a display of the proof).
  • Theorem 2.6 is the abstract limit theorem: if τν−1[zν−z∗]→Dw\tau_\nu^{-1}[z^\nu - z^*] \to_{\mathcal D} wτν−1​[zν−z∗]→D​w, then τν−1[xν−x∗]→DDF−1(0∣x∗)(−Dzf(z∗,x∗)(w))\tau_\nu^{-1}[x^\nu - x^*] \to_{\mathcal D} DF^{-1}(0|x^*)(-D_z f(z^*,x^*)(w))τν−1​[xν−x∗]→D​DF−1(0∣x∗)(−Dz​f(z∗,x∗)(w)). Its proof uses two displays: semi-differentiability of the localized solution map, with DJ(z∗∣x∗)(w)=DF−1(0∣x∗)(−Dzf(z∗,x∗)(w))DJ(z^*|x^*)(w) = DF^{-1}(0|x^*)(-D_z f(z^*,x^*)(w))DJ(z∗∣x∗)(w)=DF−1(0∣x∗)(−Dz​f(z∗,x∗)(w)), and a Lipschitz bound ∣x−x∗∣≤λ∥z−z∗∥|x - x^*| \le \lambda\|z - z^*\|∣x−x∗∣≤λ∥z−z∗∥ on U∩J(z)U \cap J(z)U∩J(z).
  • Proposition A1, Corollary A2 and Theorem A3 concern the space Cm(U)C_m(U)Cm​(U) under P.1–P.4. The integrand and the empirical means are random elements of Cm(U)C_m(U)Cm​(U), and ν(fˉν−Ef)\sqrt\nu(\bar f^\nu - Ef)ν​(fˉ​ν−Ef) converges in distribution to a Gaussian element of Cm(U)C_m(U)Cm​(U).

The three displays (Theorem 2.4's upper-Lipschitz inclusion, and Theorem 2.6's semi-differentiability and Lipschitz bound) are statements the paper cites from King and Rockafellar, Sensitivity analysis for nonsmooth generalized equations ([12]: Proposition 2.1, Theorem 4.1, Remark 4.3). They are cited results, not this paper's own, and are milestones because the proofs of Theorems 2.4 and 2.6 rest on them.

Significance

Theorem 2.7 gives the limit law of constrained and nonsmooth M-estimates in a form that can be computed. When NNN is the normal cone of a polyhedron, DF−1(0∣x∗)DF^{-1}(0|x^*)DF−1(0∣x∗) is piecewise linear, and the limit is the solution of a random linear complementarity or quadratic problem driven by a Gaussian vector. This underlies the asymptotic theory of sample-average approximation in stochastic programming, where the paper applies it to stochastic programs (§3) and to piecewise linear-quadratic tracking problems (§4). Theorem 2.6 separates the deterministic sensitivity analysis from the probability, so any data sequence with a known limit law yields a limit law for the solutions.

The result is proved in the paper modulo the cited theorems of [12] and [11], but none of it is machine-checked. Mathlib has the real-valued i.i.d. central limit theorem, Gaussian measures on Banach spaces and convergence in distribution. It has no multivariate or Banach-space central limit theorem, no contingent derivatives and no set-valued implicit function theorem. Formalizing the mission produces these, along with a checked version of the cited sensitivity results.

Difficulty

The classical argument linearizes FFF at x∗x^*x∗, inverts the Jacobian and applies the delta method. Here FFF is set-valued and its derivative is only positively homogeneous. There is no Jacobian to invert, and the solution map need not be differentiable or even single-valued away from x∗x^*x∗. The replacement for the implicit function theorem is the semi-differentiability of the localized solution map under M.1–M.4. Proving it means controlling both the upper and the lower set limits of difference quotients of solution sets, and subinvertibility is what supplies existence of nearby solutions.

The probabilistic side cannot work coordinate by coordinate either. The estimate solves an equation in the whole function fˉν\bar f^\nufˉ​ν, so convergence of fˉν\bar f^\nufˉ​ν at finitely many points is not enough. The central limit theorem must hold in the sup norm on Cm(U)C_m(U)Cm​(U), which requires tightness of the empirical process, and only then can the deterministic sensitivity result be composed with it.

Formalization scope

Points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and ZZZ is a real normed space with [CompleteSpace Z] [SeparableSpace Z] where the paper says "separable Banach". Set limits are Kuratowski limits along filters (t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0 is 𝓝[>] 0, and (t,w′)→(0+,w)(t,w') \to (0^+,w)(t,w′)→(0+,w) is the product filter). The contingent derivative is defined by (2.2) alone. M.4's printed sum formula equals it under M.1, and this is not assumed. "B-differentiable" is read as the limit (2.4). Products carry Lean's max norm. s1s_1s1​ is s 0, empirical means sum over Finset.range ν, and (2.5) is required for ν≥1\nu \ge 1ν≥1. F=Ef+NF = Ef + NF=Ef+N is empty off UUU. Convergence in distribution is Mathlib's TendstoInDistribution, with the limit on its own probability space. The law of w∗w^*w∗ is fixed through linear functionals: ⟨ℓ,w∗⟩∼N(0,Var⁡⟨ℓ,f(x∗,s1)⟩)\langle\ell, w^*\rangle \sim \mathcal N(0, \operatorname{Var}\langle\ell, f(x^*,s_1)\rangle)⟨ℓ,w∗⟩∼N(0,Var⟨ℓ,f(x∗,s1​)⟩). In Appendix A1–A3 the integrand is S → C(↥U, Rn m) with the Borel σ-algebra, and "Gaussian" is IsGaussian.

Explicit choices relative to the printed text:

  1. The paper states that an almost surely convergent sequence of solutions "converges to the point x∗x^*x∗" (Theorems 2.6 and 2.7). This is false when the true equation has a second solution: f(z,x)=x2−x−zf(z,x) = x^2 - x - zf(z,x)=x2−x−z, N≡{0}N \equiv \{0\}N≡{0}, z∗=x∗=0z^* = x^* = 0z∗=x∗=0 satisfies M.1–M.4 with J(0)={0,1}J(0) = \{0, 1\}J(0)={0,1}. The formalization assumes xν→x∗x^\nu \to x^*xν→x∗ almost surely instead.
  2. 0∈F(x∗)0 \in F(x^*)0∈F(x∗) (presupposed by DF−1(0∣x∗)DF^{-1}(0|x^*)DF−1(0∣x∗)) is explicit in Theorem 2.4 and the upper-Lipschitz display.
  3. The threshold for "all sufficiently small δ\deltaδ" in Theorem 2.4 is chosen with UUU and λ\lambdaλ, before the random elements.
  4. Proposition A1 and Corollary A2 carry P.1–P.4, as stated or inherited on the Appendix page, though their measurability conclusions use only P.1.
  5. In the limit theorems, the single-valued map DF−1(0∣x∗)DF^{-1}(0|x^*)DF−1(0∣x∗) is a function LLL whose values lie in the contingent derivative at every point.

The conclusion of the goal names its limit: the image of the stated Gaussian under a map LLL whose values lie in the contingent derivative of F−1F^{-1}F−1. A statement asserting only that ν(xν−x∗)\sqrt\nu(x^\nu - x^*)ν​(xν−x∗) converges in distribution to some limit, or replacing DF−1(0∣x∗)DF^{-1}(0|x^*)DF−1(0∣x∗) by a linear map, is a different and weaker theorem. A sorry-free check confirms that the goal's hypotheses can all be met (a degenerate instance with f(x,s)=xf(x,s) = xf(x,s)=x, N≡{0}N \equiv \{0\}N≡{0}).

A complete development needs Kuratowski set convergence and contingent derivatives (reusable across set-valued analysis), a central limit theorem in C(K)C(K)C(K) for Lipschitz-indexed processes (reusable for empirical-process theory), and a continuous-mapping argument for random closed sets. Contributions to any of these layers are welcome, as are proofs of the cited [12] statements.

Selected references

  • A. J. King and R. T. Rockafellar, Asymptotic theory for solutions in statistical estimation and stochastic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(1) (1993). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.1.148
  • A. J. King and R. T. Rockafellar, Sensitivity analysis for nonsmooth generalized equations, Mathematical Programming 55 (1992) 193–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581199
  • A. J. King, Generalized delta theorems for multivalued mappings and measurable selections, Mathematics of Operations Research 14(4) (1989) 720–736. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.14.4.720
  • J. Dupačová and R. J.-B. Wets, Asymptotic behavior of statistical estimators and of optimal solutions of stochastic optimization problems, Annals of Statistics 16(4) (1988) 1517–1549. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176351052
  • A. Shapiro, Asymptotic properties of statistical estimators in stochastic programming, Annals of Statistics 17(2) (1989) 841–858. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176347146
  • P. J. Huber, The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions, Proc. Fifth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 1 (1967) 221–233. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200512988
  • A. Araujo and E. Giné, The Central Limit Theorem for Real and Banach Valued Random Variables, Wiley, 1980.
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems 1: Clearing Policies Are Unstable on a Re-Entrant Two-Machine Line, Even Without Set-UpsResearch Paper

Motivation

A flexible manufacturing system is a set of machines through which parts of several types travel along fixed routes; each machine serves several buffers and must pay a set-up time whenever it switches from one buffer to another. Real-time scheduling decides, as the system evolves, which buffer each machine works on. Perkins and Kumar (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34, 1989) introduced simple distributed policies for this problem, of which the most natural is the clearing policy: a machine keeps working on a buffer until it is empty, and only then switches. They proved that every clear-a-fraction policy, a subclass of clearing policies, keeps every buffer bounded on acyclic systems whenever each machine has spare capacity, and left open whether clear-a-fraction policies stabilize all systems in which material flows around cycles.

Kumar and Seidman (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 35(3), 1990, doi:10.1109/9.50339) answered no. Their Example 1 is a single part type that visits two machines in the order 1, 2, 2, 1. Every machine has spare capacity, yet under the clearing policy the buffer levels grow without bound, and they do so even when all set-up times are zero, so the instability comes from machines starving each other rather than from time lost to set-ups. Until then, instability had been suspected to require positive set-up times. Shortly afterwards Lu and Kumar exhibited instability of a static buffer-priority rule in a re-entrant network (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 36, 1991); together these examples started the study of stability of multiclass queueing networks.

Setting

A manufacturing system has part types ppp arriving at rates dp>0d_p > 0dp​>0. Parts of type ppp follow a route of length npn_pnp​: their iii-th operation is at machine μp,i\mu_{p,i}μp,i​, and they wait for it in buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​, where each part needs processing time τp,i>0\tau_{p,i} > 0τp,i​>0. Machine mmm serves the buffers Bm={b:μb=m}B_m = \{b : \mu_b = m\}Bm​={b:μb​=m}, and switching from bbb to b′b'b′ costs set-up time δb,b′≥0\delta_{b,b'} \ge 0δb,b′​≥0.

Flows are continuous (fluid). The level of buffer bbb at time t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 is xb(t)=xb(0)+ub(t)−yb(t)≥0x_b(t) = x_b(0) + u_b(t) - y_b(t) \ge 0xb​(t)=xb​(0)+ub​(t)−yb​(t)≥0, where yb(t)y_b(t)yb​(t) is its cumulative output and ub(t)u_b(t)ub​(t) its cumulative input: dptd_p tdp​t for the first buffer of a route, and the output of the preceding buffer otherwise. Each machine works in runs: run kkk is a set-up phase of length δβk−1,βk\delta_{\beta_{k-1},\beta_k}δβk−1​,βk​​ followed by a processing phase on buffer βk\beta_kβk​, during which the buffer is drained at rate 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while it is nonempty and passed through at its inflow rate when it is empty. The system is stable if sup⁡0≤t<∞xb(t)<∞\sup_{0 \le t < \infty} x_b(t) < \inftysup0≤t<∞​xb​(t)<∞ for every buffer.

A clearing policy (Definition 1) is one in which a machine processing bbb continues until the first time that bbb is empty and some other buffer of the same machine is nonempty, and then commences a set-up for one of the nonempty buffers.

Example 1. One part type arrives at rate d=1d = 1d=1 and visits machine 1, machine 2, machine 2 and machine 1; its buffers are 1,2,3,41, 2, 3, 41,2,3,4, so B1={1,4}B_1 = \{1, 4\}B1​={1,4} and B2={2,3}B_2 = \{2, 3\}B2​={2,3}. Processing times are τ1,…,τ4>0\tau_1, \dots, \tau_4 > 0τ1​,…,τ4​>0, and δk\delta_kδk​ is the time to set up to buffer kkk. The parameters satisfy the critical condition and the capacity condition

τ2+τ4>1,τ1+τ4<1,τ2+τ3<1.(3–5)\tau_2 + \tau_4 > 1, \qquad \tau_1 + \tau_4 < 1, \qquad \tau_2 + \tau_3 < 1. \tag{3–5}τ2​+τ4​>1,τ1​+τ4​<1,τ2​+τ3​<1.(3–5)

The initial state is x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0)x(0) = (\xi, 0, 0, 0)x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0), with machine 1 set up for buffer 4 and machine 2 set up for buffer 3. Write

λ=τ41−τ2>1,α=(τ4+1)(δ1+δ2)1−τ2+δ3(τ4+1)+δ4,β=τ4(δ1+δ2)1−τ2+τ4δ3+δ4.\lambda = \frac{\tau_4}{1-\tau_2} > 1, \quad \alpha = \frac{(\tau_4+1)(\delta_1+\delta_2)}{1-\tau_2} + \delta_3(\tau_4+1) + \delta_4, \quad \beta = \frac{\tau_4(\delta_1+\delta_2)}{1-\tau_2} + \tau_4\delta_3 + \delta_4.λ=1−τ2​τ4​​>1,α=1−τ2​(τ4​+1)(δ1​+δ2​)​+δ3​(τ4​+1)+δ4​,β=1−τ2​τ4​(δ1​+δ2​)​+τ4​δ3​+δ4​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Example 1, both cases

Assume (3)–(5).

  1. If δ1,…,δ4>0\delta_1, \dots, \delta_4 > 0δ1​,…,δ4​>0, there is ξ0\xi_0ξ0​ such that for every ξ≥ξ0\xi \ge \xi_0ξ≥ξ0​ (ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0) a clearing trajectory from (ξ,0,0,0)(\xi, 0, 0, 0)(ξ,0,0,0) exists, and every such trajectory has
sup⁡0≤t<∞x1(t)=+∞.\sup_{0 \le t < \infty} x_1(t) = +\infty.0≤t<∞sup​x1​(t)=+∞.
  1. If δ1=⋯=δ4=0\delta_1 = \dots = \delta_4 = 0δ1​=⋯=δ4​=0, the same holds for every ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0.

Milestone: the Case 1 cycle map

For ξ\xiξ large enough, every clearing trajectory from (ξ,0,0,0)(\xi, 0, 0, 0)(ξ,0,0,0) reaches, at T1=(λ+τ2/(1−τ2))ξ+αT_1 = (\lambda + \tau_2/(1-\tau_2))\xi + \alphaT1​=(λ+τ2​/(1−τ2​))ξ+α,

x(T1)=(λξ+β,0,0,0),x(T_1) = (\lambda\xi + \beta, 0, 0, 0),x(T1​)=(λξ+β,0,0,0),

with machines 1 and 2 again set up for buffers 4 and 3.

Milestone: the Case 2 magnification

With zero set-up times and any ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0, every clearing trajectory reaches, at t5=(τ2+τ4)ξ/(1−τ2)t_5 = (\tau_2+\tau_4)\xi/(1-\tau_2)t5​=(τ2​+τ4​)ξ/(1−τ2​),

x(t5)=(λξ,0,0,0),x(t_5) = (\lambda\xi, 0, 0, 0),x(t5​)=(λξ,0,0,0),

with machines 1 and 2 again set up for buffers 4 and 3.

Significance

The example shows that the condition ρm<1\rho_m < 1ρm​<1 on every machine, which is necessary for stability and sufficient for the existence of some stabilizing policy, does not make natural distributed policies stable once material flows around a cycle. The throughput of the line falls to 1/(τ2+τ4)<11/(\tau_2+\tau_4) < 11/(τ2​+τ4​)<1 part per unit time although each machine could handle the demand. This motivates the paper's two positive results: sufficient conditions under which clear-a-fraction policies are stable (Theorem 1), and a supervisory mechanism that stabilizes any policy (Theorem 2), which are the subjects of the other missions of this series. The example is also an early instance of the phenomenon later studied as instability of multiclass fluid networks under work-conserving policies.

The paper's argument is a stage-by-stage computation of piecewise linear trajectories. No machine-checked version of it exists. A formal proof has to make precise what the paper leaves to the reader: that the clearing rule determines the trajectory, that the stage formulas are what that trajectory does, and that the cycle can be restarted. The formal model of runs, set-ups and the clearing rule built here is the same as in the other missions of the series.

Difficulty

The arithmetic of each cycle is routine once the trajectory is known. The difficulty is in the universal quantifier: the claim covers every clearing trajectory, and the clearing rule is defined implicitly, through "the first time thereafter" at which a buffer is empty and another one is nonempty. At several switching instants the buffer a machine switches to is empty and only starts to fill at that instant, and with zero set-up times a machine may begin a run at an instant where the switching condition already holds. Showing that each switch happens exactly when the paper says, and that the fluid levels then follow the printed formulas (including the reduced rate of a machine working on an empty buffer), is a uniqueness argument for a hybrid system, not a simulation. The existence half asks for the converse: an explicit trajectory, defined for all time, with infinitely many runs whose start times tend to infinity.

Formalization scope

  • Time is real (t≥0t \ge 0t≥0); flows are fluid; there are no transport delays or assembly.
  • The system is a general structure (part types Fin P, machines Fin M, buffers ⟨p, i⟩ with i : Fin (n p), paper index iii = Lean index i+1i+1i+1), instantiated as Example 1 with d=1d = 1d=1, route (1,2,2,1)(1,2,2,1)(1,2,2,1), and δb,b′=δb′\delta_{b,b'} = \delta_{b'}δb,b′​=δb′​ for b≠b′b \ne b'b=b′; staying on a buffer costs nothing.
  • A trajectory is a schedule of runs per machine (possibly finitely many, the last lasting forever), with only finitely many run starts in any bounded interval. Processing obeys a rate cap (yby_byb​ grows at most at rate 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​, and only while machine μb\mu_bμb​ is in a processing phase of bbb) and runs at full rate while the buffer is nonempty.
  • In Definition 1, a target buffer counts as "nonempty" when it is demanding: positive level, or inflow starting at that instant. The no-early-exit condition is imposed on the open processing interval. Under the literal reading (positive level) or a closed interval, the paper's own trajectories are not clearing, and the goal would hold vacuously; the existence clause in the goal rules out that trivialization.
  • "Set up for buffer bbb at time TTT" means the run in force on (sk,sk+1](s_k, s_{k+1}](sk​,sk+1​].
  • Unboundedness is stated for buffer 1: for every CCC there is t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 with x1(t)>Cx_1(t) > Cx1​(t)>C; "ξ\xiξ large enough" is ∃ξ0,∀ξ≥ξ0\exists \xi_0, \forall \xi \ge \xi_0∃ξ0​,∀ξ≥ξ0​.

Useful contributions include lemmas about fluid trajectories that do not depend on the example (continuity of levels, the pass-through rate on an empty buffer, restarting a trajectory at a run boundary), which also serve the other missions of the series.

Selected references

  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 35(3), 289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. R. Perkins and P. R. Kumar, Stable, distributed, real-time scheduling of flexible manufacturing/assembly/disassembly systems, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34, 139–148, 1989 (reference [18] of the paper).
  • S. H. Lu and P. R. Kumar, Distributed scheduling based on due dates and buffer priorities, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 36, 1991.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Inequalities on Partially Ordered Spaces 1: Stochastically Ordered Initial Laws and Kernels Give Coupled Random Sequences with Xₙ ≤ Yₙ for All n Almost SurelyResearch Paper

Motivation

Comparison theorems for stochastic processes answer a practical question: if one system starts "lower" and moves "upward" less aggressively than another, does it stay below the other one for all time? Queueing, reliability and inventory models use such statements to order performance measures of two systems without computing either distribution. Results of this kind for real-valued Markov chains go back to Kalmykov (1962) and Daley (1968); O'Brien (1975) proved a comparison theorem for real sequences with general (non-Markov) dependence on the past.

Kamae, Krengel and O'Brien (1977) placed these results on a common foundation: an arbitrary partially ordered Polish space, where the state can be a vector, a path, a configuration or a measure. Their tool is a characterization of the stochastic order through monotone couplings, which goes back to Strassen (1965).

Timeline.

  • 1962, Kalmykov: comparison of real Markov chains with stochastically monotone kernels.
  • 1965, Strassen: existence of probability measures with given marginals; a coupling on a closed set K⊆E×EK \subseteq E \times EK⊆E×E exists iff the marginals satisfy the matching inequalities.
  • 1968, Daley: stochastically monotone Markov chains on R\mathbb RR.
  • 1975, O'Brien: comparison theorem for real random sequences with history-dependent kernels.
  • 1977, Kamae–Krengel–O'Brien: the order on a partially ordered Polish space, Theorem 1 (six characterizations), and the comparison theorem for sequences in products of such spaces (Theorem 2).

Setting

Let EEE be a complete separable metric space with a closed partial order ≤\le≤ (the set {(x,y):x≤y}\{(x,y) : x \le y\}{(x,y):x≤y} is closed in E×EE \times EE×E) and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra. Write M(E)\mathcal M(E)M(E) for the probability measures on EEE. A set A⊆EA \subseteq EA⊆E is increasing if x∈Ax \in Ax∈A and x≤yx \le yx≤y imply y∈Ay \in Ay∈A; a function fff is increasing if x≤yx \le yx≤y implies f(x)≤f(y)f(x) \le f(y)f(x)≤f(y). For P1,P2∈M(E)P_1, P_2 \in \mathcal M(E)P1​,P2​∈M(E), P1P_1P1​ is stochastically smaller than P2P_2P2​, written P1≺P2P_1 \prec P_2P1​≺P2​, if

∫f dP1≤∫f dP2for every bounded measurable increasing f:E→R.\int f\,dP_1 \le \int f\,dP_2 \quad\text{for every bounded measurable increasing } f : E \to \mathbb R .∫fdP1​≤∫fdP2​for every bounded measurable increasing f:E→R.

A stochastic kernel kkk from E1E_1E1​ to E2E_2E2​ assigns to every x∈E1x \in E_1x∈E1​ a probability measure k(x,⋅)k(x,\cdot)k(x,⋅) on E2E_2E2​, measurably in xxx. For P1∈M(E1)P_1 \in \mathcal M(E_1)P1​∈M(E1​), P1∗kP_1 * kP1​∗k is the measure on E1×E2E_1 \times E_2E1​×E2​ with (P1∗k)(A1×A2)=∫A1k(x,A2) P1(dx)(P_1 * k)(A_1 \times A_2) = \int_{A_1} k(x, A_2)\,P_1(dx)(P1​∗k)(A1​×A2​)=∫A1​​k(x,A2​)P1​(dx), and P1kP_1^{k}P1k​ is its second marginal. A kernel kkk on E×EE \times EE×E is upward if k(x,⋅)k(x,\cdot)k(x,⋅) is concentrated on {y:y≥x}\{y : y \ge x\}{y:y≥x} for every xxx.

For partially ordered Polish spaces E1,E2,…E_1, E_2, \dotsE1​,E2​,…, the products En=E1×⋯×EnE^{n} = E_1 \times \cdots \times E_nEn=E1​×⋯×En​ and E∞=∏iEiE^\infty = \prod_i E_iE∞=∏i​Ei​ carry the product topology and the coordinatewise order, and are again partially ordered Polish spaces. Given P1∈M(E1)P_1 \in \mathcal M(E_1)P1​∈M(E1​) and kernels pnp_npn​ from En−1E^{n-1}En−1 to EnE_nEn​ (n≥2n \ge 2n≥2), the measure P1∗p2∗⋯∗pnP_1 * p_2 * \cdots * p_nP1​∗p2​∗⋯∗pn​ on EnE^{n}En is the law of (X1,…,Xn)(X_1, \dots, X_n)(X1​,…,Xn​) when X1∼P1X_1 \sim P_1X1​∼P1​ and XnX_nXn​ is drawn from pn(X1,…,Xn−1,⋅)p_n(X_1, \dots, X_{n-1}, \cdot)pn​(X1​,…,Xn−1​,⋅); its projective limit is the law of the whole sequence.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (the discrete-time comparison theorem)

Let P1,Q1∈M(E1)P_1, Q_1 \in \mathcal M(E_1)P1​,Q1​∈M(E1​) and let pn,qnp_n, q_npn​,qn​ be stochastic kernels from En−1E^{n-1}En−1 to EnE_nEn​, n≥2n \ge 2n≥2. If P1≺Q1P_1 \prec Q_1P1​≺Q1​ and

pn(xn−1,⋅)≺qn(yn−1,⋅)whenever xn−1≤yn−1,p_n(x^{n-1},\cdot) \prec q_n(y^{n-1},\cdot) \quad\text{whenever } x^{n-1} \le y^{n-1},pn​(xn−1,⋅)≺qn​(yn−1,⋅)whenever xn−1≤yn−1,

then there are random sequences (Xn)(X_n)(Xn​), (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) on one probability space, with initial laws P1P_1P1​, Q1Q_1Q1​ and conditional laws pnp_npn​, qnq_nqn​, such that

P(Xi≤Yi, i=1,2,… )=1.P(X_i \le Y_i,\ i = 1, 2, \dots) = 1 .P(Xi​≤Yi​, i=1,2,…)=1.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1: for P1,P2∈M(E)P_1, P_2 \in \mathcal M(E)P1​,P2​∈M(E), P1≺P2P_1 \prec P_2P1​≺P2​ is equivalent to each of: a coupling supported on {x≤y}\{x \le y\}{x≤y}; a representation f(Z)∼P1f(Z) \sim P_1f(Z)∼P1​, g(Z)∼P2g(Z) \sim P_2g(Z)∼P2​ with f≤gf \le gf≤g and ZZZ real; random variables X1≤X2X_1 \le X_2X1​≤X2​ a.s. with laws P1,P2P_1, P_2P1​,P2​; P2=P1kP_2 = P_1^{k}P2​=P1k​ for an upward kernel kkk; and P1(B)≤P2(B)P_1(B) \le P_2(B)P1​(B)≤P2​(B) for every closed increasing BBB.
  2. Proposition 1: under the hypotheses of Theorem 2, P1∗p2∗⋯∗pn≺Q1∗q2∗⋯∗qnP_1 * p_2 * \cdots * p_n \prec Q_1 * q_2 * \cdots * q_nP1​∗p2​∗⋯∗pn​≺Q1​∗q2​∗⋯∗qn​ for every nnn.
  3. Proposition 2: on E∞E^\inftyE∞, if all finite-dimensional marginals satisfy P(i)≺Q(i)P^{(i)} \prec Q^{(i)}P(i)≺Q(i), then P≺QP \prec QP≺Q.
  4. Proposition 3: ≺\prec≺ is preserved under weak convergence.
  5. Proposition 4: P1≺P2≺⋯P_1 \prec P_2 \prec \cdotsP1​≺P2​≺⋯ iff there are random elements X1≤X2≤⋯X_1 \le X_2 \le \cdotsX1​≤X2​≤⋯ a.s. with Xi∼PiX_i \sim P_iXi​∼Pi​, iff there are ZZZ real and f1≤f2≤⋯f_1 \le f_2 \le \cdotsf1​≤f2​≤⋯ with fi(Z)∼Pif_i(Z) \sim P_ifi​(Z)∼Pi​.
  6. Corollary 1 (i)–(iii), consequences of Theorem 2 when E1=E2=⋯E_1 = E_2 = \cdotsE1​=E2​=⋯: for an increasing set AAA, P(Xn∈A)≤P(Yn∈A)P(X_n \in A) \le P(Y_n \in A)P(Xn​∈A)≤P(Yn​∈A); first entrance times into AAA satisfy P(Nx<n)≤P(Ny<n)P(N_x < n) \le P(N_y < n)P(Nx​<n)≤P(Ny​<n); and Ef(Xn)≤Ef(Yn)E f(X_n) \le E f(Y_n)Ef(Xn​)≤Ef(Yn​) for nondecreasing fff whenever the expectations exist.
  7. Theorem 3: in a partially ordered Polish space with a compatible vector structure, kernels ordered through the increments they produce yield processes (Sn)(S_n)(Sn​), (Tn)(T_n)(Tn​) with S1≤T1S_1 \le T_1S1​≤T1​ and Sn+1−Sn≤Tn+1−TnS_{n+1} - S_n \le T_{n+1} - T_nSn+1​−Sn​≤Tn+1​−Tn​ for all nnn, almost surely.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 turns an inequality between one-step transition laws into a pathwise inequality between whole trajectories. Every functional that is increasing in the path, such as hitting times of increasing sets, maxima, occupation counts or cumulative costs, is then ordered between the two processes, as Corollary 1 illustrates. Because the state space is any partially ordered Polish space, the theorem covers vector-valued queue lengths, networks, and processes whose state is itself a sequence, not just real chains. Theorem 1 is the basic tool for working with the order on such spaces: it converts between integrals, couplings, kernels and closed increasing sets.

Formalizing it. All results are proved in the paper (1977); none is machine-checked. The platform has the special case of Theorem 1 (i) ⇔\Leftrightarrow⇔ (iv) for E=RnE = \mathbb R^nE=Rn as an open statement (PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_st); the general partially ordered Polish case, and the sequence comparison, are new. A formal development yields a reusable library for the stochastic order on general ordered spaces and its interaction with Mathlib's Ionescu-Tulcea construction of process laws (Kernel.trajMeasure).

Difficulty

The obvious argument for Theorem 2 couples the processes step by step: couple X1≤Y1X_1 \le Y_1X1​≤Y1​, then, given the two histories, couple X2≤Y2X_2 \le Y_2X2​≤Y2​, and so on. Each step needs a monotone coupling of pn(xn−1,⋅)p_n(x^{n-1},\cdot)pn​(xn−1,⋅) and qn(yn−1,⋅)q_n(y^{n-1},\cdot)qn​(yn−1,⋅) chosen measurably in the pair of histories; the existence of one coupling for each fixed pair (Theorem 1) does not by itself give a kernel.

Theorem 1's central implication, from the integral inequality to a coupling supported on the closed set {x≤y}\{x \le y\}{x≤y}, is Strassen's theorem. On R\mathbb RR it follows from quantile functions; on a general ordered space there is no such formula. Passing from finite horizons to the infinite sequence is a further step, since an ordering of every finite-dimensional marginal must be turned into an ordering of the infinite-dimensional laws.

Formalization scope

  • A partially ordered Polish space is [TopologicalSpace E] [PolishSpace E] [MeasurableSpace E] [BorelSpace E] [PartialOrder E] [OrderClosedTopology E]. This is the paper's standing assumption (Sec. 1, p. 899) and is carried by every theorem, also where a statement says only "Polish space". All sets and functions the paper quantifies over are measurable, also by the standing assumption.
  • StochLE P₁ P₂ is defined through bounded measurable monotone functions, exactly as on p. 899. It is not defined through increasing sets, closed increasing sets or couplings, so none of the milestones holds by definition.
  • Sequences are 0-based: the paper's EiE_iEi​, XiX_iXi​ are Lean's E (i - 1), X (i - 1), and the paper's kernel pnp_npn​ (n≥2n \ge 2n≥2) is p (n - 2) : Kernel (Π i : Iic (n - 2), E i) (E (n - 1)), the signature of Mathlib's Ionescu-Tulcea API.
  • "Random sequences with initial law P1P_1P1​ and conditional laws pnp_npn​" is encoded through their joint law, which these data determine: the law of (Xn)(X_n)(Xn​) is Kernel.trajMeasure P₁ p. Corollary 1 is stated about these laws directly. The goal therefore cannot be met by coupling only one-dimensional marginals or finite prefixes; it asserts the joint laws of the full sequences and one almost-sure event for all indices.
  • Hypothesis (4) is required pointwise for all ordered pairs of histories; no stochastic monotonicity of the kernels is assumed.
  • Corollary 1 (iii) takes expectations in the extended sense, Ef=Ef+−Ef−E f = E f^+ - E f^-Ef=Ef+−Ef− in EReal, and "the expectation exists" means the two parts are not both infinite; expectations equal to ±∞\pm\infty±∞ are covered.
  • Theorem 1 (iii) and Proposition 4 (iii) leave the law of the real variable ZZZ free, as the paper does.
  • Theorem 3 (p. 904) prints the conditional increment law of TTT as qn+1(T1,…,Tn;A+Sn)q_{n+1}(T_1, \dots, T_n; A + S_n)qn+1​(T1​,…,Tn​;A+Sn​); this is a misprint for A+TnA + T_nA+Tn​, and the Lean states the corrected form. Its compatible vector structure is [AddCommGroup E] [Module ℝ E] [ContinuousAdd E] [ContinuousSMul ℝ E] plus the hypothesis that translates of increasing sets are increasing.
  • Not included: Sections 4–5 (continuous time, which needs the Skorohod space).

Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, in particular Strassen's coupling theorem on partially ordered Polish spaces, a measurable-selection lemma for monotone couplings, and general lemmas relating StochLE to increasing sets.

The source is the published version (The Annals of Probability), and printed page = PDF page + 898 throughout.

Selected references

  • T. Kamae, U. Krengel, G. L. O'Brien, Stochastic Inequalities on Partially Ordered Spaces, The Annals of Probability 5(6), 1977, 899–912. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176995659
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36(2), 1965, 423–439. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • G. L. O'Brien, The comparison method for stochastic processes, The Annals of Probability 3, 1975, 80–88. https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-probability/volume-3/issue-1
  • D. J. Daley, Stochastically monotone Markov chains, Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und verwandte Gebiete 10, 1968, 307–317 (as cited in the paper).
  • G. I. Kalmykov, On the partial ordering of one-dimensional Markov processes, Theory of Probability and its Applications 7, 1962, 456–459 (as cited in the paper).
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Control TheoryConvex OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Duality in Constrained Portfolio Optimization I: Financibility, Minimality, Dual Optimality and Parsimony of an Auxiliary Market Are Equivalent and Yield the Optimal Constrained PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

An investor in a continuous-time market chooses, at every instant, how to split wealth between a bond and ddd stocks and how fast to consume, so as to maximize expected utility of consumption and terminal wealth. Without constraints on the portfolio, this problem was solved by the martingale method: Pliska (1986), Karatzas, Lehoczky and Shreve (1987) and Cox and Huang (1989) showed that in a complete market the optimal terminal wealth and consumption are explicit functions of a single state-price density, and the portfolio that finances them comes from the martingale representation theorem.

Real investors face constraints: no short selling, no borrowing, a cap on the fraction of wealth in a sector, an incomplete market in which some stocks cannot be traded at all. Each makes the market effectively incomplete, and the single state-price density no longer exists. Karatzas, Lehoczky, Shreve and Xu (1991) treated incompleteness, Xu (1990, thesis) short-selling prohibition, and He and Pearson (1991) short-sale constraints in a general setting. Cvitanić and Karatzas (1992) unified these cases: the portfolio must take values in an arbitrary nonempty closed convex set K⊂RdK\subset\mathbb R^dK⊂Rd, and the problem is embedded in a family of auxiliary unconstrained markets indexed by a dual process ν\nuν. This mission formalizes the paper's central characterization, Theorem 10.1, and the results its proof rests on.

Setting

A standard Brownian motion WWW in Rd\mathbb R^dRd lives on a complete probability space with its augmented filtration {Ft}\{\mathcal F_t\}{Ft​}, on a finite horizon [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The market M\mathcal MM has progressively measurable interest rate rrr, appreciation rates bbb and volatility matrix σ\sigmaσ, with r≥−ηr\ge-\etar≥−η, ξ∗σσ∗ξ≥ε∥ξ∥2\xi^*\sigma\sigma^*\xi\ge\varepsilon\|\xi\|^2ξ∗σσ∗ξ≥ε∥ξ∥2, E∫0Tr dt<∞E\int_0^Tr\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​rdt<∞, and a relative risk θ=σ−1(b−r1)\theta=\sigma^{-1}(b-r\mathbf 1)θ=σ−1(b−r1) with E∫0T∥θ∥2dt<∞E\int_0^T\|\theta\|^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​∥θ∥2dt<∞. The state-price density is H0=γ0Z0H_0=\gamma_0Z_0H0​=γ0​Z0​, with γ0(t)=e−∫0tr\gamma_0(t)=e^{-\int_0^tr}γ0​(t)=e−∫0t​r and Z0(t)=exp⁡(−∫0tθ∗dW−12∫0t∥θ∥2)Z_0(t)=\exp(-\int_0^t\theta^*dW-\frac12\int_0^t\|\theta\|^2)Z0​(t)=exp(−∫0t​θ∗dW−21​∫0t​∥θ∥2).

A portfolio π\piπ gives the proportions of wealth in the stocks, a consumption rate is c≥0c\ge0c≥0, and the wealth solves

dX=(rX−c) dt+Xπ∗σ (dW+θ dt),X(0)=x>0.dX=(rX-c)\,dt+X\pi^*\sigma\,(dW+\theta\,dt),\qquad X(0)=x>0.dX=(rX−c)dt+Xπ∗σ(dW+θdt),X(0)=x>0.

The pair is admissible, (π,c)∈A0(x)(\pi,c)\in\mathcal A_0(x)(π,c)∈A0​(x), if X≥0X\ge0X≥0. With utility functions U1(t,⋅)U_1(t,\cdot)U1​(t,⋅), U2U_2U2​ (strictly increasing, strictly concave, C1C^1C1, U′(0+)=∞U'(0+)=\inftyU′(0+)=∞, U′(∞)=0U'(\infty)=0U′(∞)=0), inverse marginals I1,I2I_1,I_2I1​,I2​ and conjugates U~1,U~2\tilde U_1,\tilde U_2U~1​,U~2​, the investor maximizes

J(x;π,c)=E∫0TU1(t,c(t)) dt+EU2(X(T))J(x;\pi,c)=E\int_0^TU_1(t,c(t))\,dt+EU_2(X(T))J(x;π,c)=E∫0T​U1​(t,c(t))dt+EU2​(X(T))

over A′(x)\mathcal A'(x)A′(x), the admissible pairs with integrable utility losses and π∈K\pi\in Kπ∈K almost everywhere. The value is V(x)V(x)V(x).

The support function δ(ν)=sup⁡π∈K(−π∗ν)∈R∪{+∞}\delta(\nu)=\sup_{\pi\in K}(-\pi^*\nu)\in\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}δ(ν)=supπ∈K​(−π∗ν)∈R∪{+∞} drives the duality. For ν\nuν in the class D\mathcal DD of square-integrable processes with E∫0Tδ(ν) dt<∞E\int_0^T\delta(\nu)\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​δ(ν)dt<∞, the auxiliary market Mν\mathcal M_\nuMν​ has interest rate r+δ(ν)r+\delta(\nu)r+δ(ν) and appreciation rates b+ν+δ(ν)1b+\nu+\delta(\nu)\mathbf 1b+ν+δ(ν)1, state-price density HνH_\nuHν​ and unconstrained value Vν(x)V_\nu(x)Vν​(x). For λ\lambdaλ in the subclass D′\mathcal D'D′ (where Xλ(y)=E[∫0THλI1(t,yHλ) dt+Hλ(T)I2(yHλ(T))]\mathcal X_\lambda(y)=E[\int_0^TH_\lambda I_1(t,yH_\lambda)\,dt+H_\lambda(T)I_2(yH_\lambda(T))]Xλ​(y)=E[∫0T​Hλ​I1​(t,yHλ​)dt+Hλ​(T)I2​(yHλ​(T))] is finite for all y>0y>0y>0), let y=Yλ(x)y=\mathcal Y_\lambda(x)y=Yλ​(x) solve Xλ(y)=x\mathcal X_\lambda(y)=xXλ​(y)=x. The Mλ\mathcal M_\lambdaMλ​-optimal consumption, terminal wealth and wealth are cλ=I1(t,yHλ)c_\lambda=I_1(t,yH_\lambda)cλ​=I1​(t,yHλ​), ξλ=I2(yHλ(T))\xi_\lambda=I_2(yH_\lambda(T))ξλ​=I2​(yHλ​(T)) and XλX_\lambdaXλ​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.1

Five conditions are considered for a capital x>0x>0x>0: (A) optimality of a pair (π^,c^)∈A′(x)(\hat\pi,\hat c)\in\mathcal A'(x)(π^,c^)∈A′(x), together with E[∫0Tc^U1′(t,c^) dt+X^(T)U2′(X^(T))]<∞E[\int_0^T\hat cU_1'(t,\hat c)\,dt+\hat X(T)U_2'(\hat X(T))]<\inftyE[∫0T​c^U1′​(t,c^)dt+X^(T)U2′​(X^(T))]<∞; and, for λ∈D′\lambda\in\mathcal D'λ∈D′, (B) financibility: some π^λ∈K\hat\pi_\lambda\in Kπ^λ​∈K with δ(λ)+π^λ∗λ=0\delta(\lambda)+\hat\pi_\lambda^*\lambda=0δ(λ)+π^λ∗​λ=0 finances (cλ,ξλ)(c_\lambda,\xi_\lambda)(cλ​,ξλ​) in M\mathcal MM; (C) minimality: Vλ(x)≤Vν(x)V_\lambda(x)\le V_\nu(x)Vλ​(x)≤Vν​(x) for all ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D, with Vλ(x)V_\lambda(x)Vλ​(x) attained by (cλ,ξλ)(c_\lambda,\xi_\lambda)(cλ​,ξλ​); (D) dual optimality: λ\lambdaλ minimizes ν↦E[∫0TU~1(t,yHν) dt+U~2(yHν(T))]\nu\mapsto E[\int_0^T\tilde U_1(t,yH_\nu)\,dt+\tilde U_2(yH_\nu(T))]ν↦E[∫0T​U~1​(t,yHν​)dt+U~2​(yHν​(T))] over D\mathcal DD; (E) parsimony: E[∫0THνcλ dt+Hν(T)ξλ]≤xE[\int_0^TH_\nu c_\lambda\,dt+H_\nu(T)\xi_\lambda]\le xE[∫0T​Hν​cλ​dt+Hν​(T)ξλ​]≤x for all ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D. The theorem asserts

(B)  ⟺  (C)  ⟺  (D)  ⟺  (E)  ⟹  (A) for (π^λ,cλ),(\mathrm B)\iff(\mathrm C)\iff(\mathrm D)\iff(\mathrm E)\implies(\mathrm A)\text{ for }(\hat\pi_\lambda,c_\lambda),(B)⟺(C)⟺(D)⟺(E)⟹(A) for (π^λ​,cλ​),

and, under the conditions (5.8) (c↦cU′(c)c\mapsto cU'(c)c↦cU′(c) nondecreasing), (8.25) (a uniform growth bound αU′(x)≥U′(γx)\alpha U'(x)\ge U'(\gamma x)αU′(x)≥U′(γx)) and (12.2) (finiteness of the dual functional for some ν\nuν), that (A) implies (B)–(E) for some λ∈D′\lambda\in\mathcal D'λ∈D′ with π^λ=π^\hat\pi_\lambda=\hat\piπ^λ​=π^.

Milestones

In proof order: the conjugate inequalities (5.5)–(5.6); the budget constraint (3.6); the unconstrained solution (Lemma 7.2, Proposition 7.3, Theorem 7.4); the embedding (8.14), V(x)≤Vν(x)V(x)\le V_\nu(x)V(x)≤Vν​(x); Proposition 8.3, (B) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ optimality; the constrained budget constraint (9.4) and the hedging Theorem 9.1, (E) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (B); and Appendix A's Lemma A.1, Lemma A.2 and Proposition A.4, the steps of (A) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (B).

Significance

Theorem 10.1 turns a constrained stochastic control problem into a family of unconstrained ones plus a minimization over the dual process λ\lambdaλ. Condition (D) is a convex minimization over ν\nuν that does not involve portfolios. It leads to the dual problem of Section 12, whose solvability gives existence of optimal constrained policies (Theorem 13.1, the companion mission). Section 9's hedging theorem is the superreplication principle under convex constraints, the basis of later work on constrained hedging and pricing. With logarithmic utility the theorem gives explicit optimal policies, and for deterministic coefficients the dual problem reduces to a deterministic one.

These results are proved in the paper, which is the standard reference for the convex-duality approach. To our knowledge they have no machine-checked proof. The mission's statements also produce a reusable Lean model of a continuous-time Itô market with stochastic coefficients, admissible portfolios, consumption, utility functions and their conjugates.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, Lagrange duality for max⁡J\max JmaxJ subject to π∈K\pi\in Kπ∈K, fails at the first step: the constraint is on the control process, not on terminal wealth, so there is no static budget constraint to dualize. The paper's dual variable is a process, and for each candidate it changes both the interest rate and the drift. The direction (B) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (A) is relatively direct. The direction (E) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (B) is a hedging theorem under convex constraints (Theorem 9.1), where financing a claim requires the portfolio to land in KKK and to satisfy the complementary-slackness identity δ(λ)+π∗λ=0\delta(\lambda)+\pi^*\lambda=0δ(λ)+π∗λ=0, which no unconstrained construction delivers. The converse (A) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (B) must produce the dual process λ\lambdaλ from an optimal pair that is only assumed to exist, and the paper needs the extra growth conditions (5.8), (8.25), (12.2) for it. In Lean, stochastic integrals for integrands that are square integrable only almost surely, the martingale representation theorem for the Brownian filtration, and the product rule for Itô processes are not available in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

Processes are functions R≥0×Ω→E\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\Omega\to ER≥0​×Ω→E constrained on [0,T][0,T][0,T]; vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), matrices Matrix (Fin d) (Fin d) ℝ. The Brownian motion is the published EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian. The stochastic integral is a binder I, constrained only by the standing hypothesis that it is an Itô integral for every locally square-integrable integrand. This almost-sure variant of EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral uses the published dyadic step helpers itoStepValue and itoStepSum. The hypothesis is satisfiable, by the classical construction.

The following readings are explicit in the Lean.

  • Triples. Classes are sets of triples (π,c,X)(\pi,c,X)(π,c,X) with XXX a wealth process: an adapted, a.s. continuous solution of the integral form of (3.1) or (8.10) whose integrals exist.
  • Extended reals. Utility expectations are extended reals, computed as positive minus negative parts. A utility at 000 is U(0+)U(0+)U(0+). Suprema are taken in the extended reals.
  • The support function. δ\deltaδ takes values in the extended reals. In drifts and discounts it enters as a real number, which is finite almost everywhere for ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D. The page's "E∫δ(ν)≤∞E\int\delta(\nu)\le\inftyE∫δ(ν)≤∞" in (8.1) is read as "<∞<\infty<∞".
  • Inverse marginals and conjugates. I(y)=inf⁡{x>0:U′(x)≤y}I(y)=\inf\{x>0: U'(x)\le y\}I(y)=inf{x>0:U′(x)≤y} and U~(y)=sup⁡x>0(U(x)−xy)\tilde U(y)=\sup_{x>0}(U(x)-xy)U~(y)=supx>0​(U(x)−xy).
  • The inverse Yλ\mathcal Y_\lambdaYλ​. Yλ(x)\mathcal Y_\lambda(x)Yλ​(x) and Y0(x)\mathcal Y_0(x)Y0​(x) are represented by a number y>0y>0y>0 with X(y)=x\mathcal X(y)=xX(y)=x.
  • The wealth XλX_\lambdaXλ​. It is a conditional expectation for each ttt. "X=XλX=X_\lambdaX=Xλ​" means X(t)=Xλ(t)X(t)=X_\lambda(t)X(t)=Xλ​(t) a.s. for every t≤Tt\le Tt≤T.
  • Almost everywhere. "ℓ⊗P\ell\otimes Pℓ⊗P-a.e." is almost everywhere for the product of Lebesgue measure on [0,T][0,T][0,T] and PPP. "a.s." is almost everywhere for PPP.
  • Theorem 9.1. Its conclusion "(π,c)∈A′(x)(\pi,c)\in\mathcal A'(x)(π,c)∈A′(x)" is formalized as A0(x)\mathcal A_0(x)A0​(x) plus π∈K\pi\in Kπ∈K a.e., since the theorem involves no utility.
  • (4.4). By Remark 4.2 it is not used in Theorem 10.1. It is kept, because the paper assumes it throughout.

A formalization in which the stochastic integral is an unconstrained function, a wealth process need not solve its equation, or δ\deltaδ is real-valued (so that sup⁡\supsup over an unbounded set returns 000) would make the statements vacuous or false; each is ruled out above. The proof will need almost-surely-square-integrable Itô integrals, Itô's product rule, nonnegative local martingales as supermartingales, and martingale representation in the Brownian filtration. All of these are reusable well beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Cvitanić and I. Karatzas, Convex duality in constrained portfolio optimization, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2(4) (1992) 767–818. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005576
  • I. Karatzas, J. P. Lehoczky and S. E. Shreve, Optimal portfolio and consumption decisions for a "small investor" on a finite horizon, SIAM J. Control Optim. 25 (1987) 1557–1586. https://doi.org/10.1137/0325086
  • J. C. Cox and C. F. Huang, Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process, J. Econom. Theory 49 (1989) 33–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90067-7
  • S. R. Pliska, A stochastic calculus model of continuous trading: optimal portfolios, Math. Oper. Res. 11 (1986) 371–382. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.11.2.371
  • I. Karatzas, J. P. Lehoczky, S. E. Shreve and G. L. Xu, Martingale and duality methods for utility maximization in an incomplete market, SIAM J. Control Optim. 29 (1991) 702–730. https://doi.org/10.1137/0329039
  • H. He and N. D. Pearson, Consumption and portfolio policies with incomplete markets and short-sale constraints: the infinite-dimensional case, J. Econom. Theory 54 (1991) 259–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(91)90123-L
  • I. Karatzas and S. E. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, Springer, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-0302-2
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Mean-Variance Hedging in Continuous Time: The Feedback Futures Strategy Φ(G*) Minimizes the Expected Squared Deviation of Terminal Wealth from Any Target LevelResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm that will receive or deliver a quantity of a commodity, currency or security at a future date carries price risk until that date. When the asset itself cannot be traded in the meantime, the standard instrument for reducing that risk is a futures contract on a correlated asset: the firm takes a position in futures and adjusts it over time, and the gains or losses of the futures position offset part of the movement of its commitment. Choosing that position is the hedging problem. The classical answer, the minimum-variance hedge ratio, is a static one-period rule. Duffie and Richardson (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1991) solved the dynamic version in continuous time with a quadratic criterion: minimize the expected squared deviation of terminal wealth from a target. Their explicit feedback solution became a reference point for the later literature on mean-variance hedging in incomplete markets (Schweizer, Gouriéroux–Laurent–Pham, and others), where the same quadratic criterion is studied under general semimartingale prices.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) carrying a two-dimensional standard Brownian motion (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε) with its filtration F\mathbb FF. Let μ,σ,m,v,ρ\mu,\sigma,m,v,\rhoμ,σ,m,v,ρ be bounded measurable functions on [0,T][0,T][0,T], with ∣v∣|v|∣v∣ bounded away from zero and ρt∈[−1,1]\rho_t\in[-1,1]ρt​∈[−1,1]. The Brownian motion ξt=∫0tρs dBs+∫0t1−ρs2 dεs\xi_t=\int_0^t\rho_s\,dB_s+\int_0^t\sqrt{1-\rho_s^2}\,d\varepsilon_sξt​=∫0t​ρs​dBs​+∫0t​1−ρs2​​dεs​ has instantaneous correlation ρ\rhoρ with BBB. The committed asset SSS and the futures price FFF follow

dSt=μtSt dt+σtSt dBt,dFt=mtFt dt+vtFt dξt,S0,F0>0.dS_t=\mu_tS_t\,dt+\sigma_tS_t\,dB_t,\qquad dF_t=m_tF_t\,dt+v_tF_t\,d\xi_t,\qquad S_0,F_0>0.dSt​=μt​St​dt+σt​St​dBt​,dFt​=mt​Ft​dt+vt​Ft​dξt​,S0​,F0​>0.

The hedger is committed to kkk units of SSS at time TTT. A trading strategy is a progressively measurable process θ\thetaθ (the futures position) with E∫0Tθt2Ft2 dt<∞E\int_0^T\theta_t^2F_t^2\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​θt2​Ft2​dt<∞; Θ\ThetaΘ denotes the set of them. Its futures gain is the stochastic integral G(θ)t=∫0tθs dFsG(\theta)_t=\int_0^t\theta_s\,dF_sG(θ)t​=∫0t​θs​dFs​, and the terminal wealth is W(θ)=kST+G(θ)TW(\theta)=kS_T+G(\theta)_TW(θ)=kST​+G(θ)T​. Given a target level L∈RL\in\mathbb RL∈R, problem (3) is

min⁡θ∈ΘE[(W(θ)−L)2].\min_{\theta\in\Theta}E\big[(W(\theta)-L)^2\big].θ∈Θmin​E[(W(θ)−L)2].

With γt=mtσtρt/vt−μt\gamma_t=m_t\sigma_t\rho_t/v_t-\mu_tγt​=mt​σt​ρt​/vt​−μt​, the tracking process is Zt=kexp⁡(−∫tTγs ds)StZ_t=k\exp(-\int_t^T\gamma_s\,ds)S_tZt​=kexp(−∫tT​γs​ds)St​, so that ZT=kSTZ_T=kS_TZT​=kST​, and the feedback map is

Φ(Gt∗)=1Ft[mtvt2(L−Zt−Gt∗)−σtρtvtZt],\Phi(G^*_t)=\frac1{F_t}\Big[\frac{m_t}{v_t^2}(L-Z_t-G^*_t)-\frac{\sigma_t\rho_t}{v_t}Z_t\Big],Φ(Gt∗​)=Ft​1​[vt2​mt​​(L−Zt​−Gt∗​)−vt​σt​ρt​​Zt​],

where G∗G^*G∗ solves dGt∗=Φ(Gt∗) dFtdG^*_t=\Phi(G^*_t)\,dF_tdGt∗​=Φ(Gt∗​)dFt​, G0∗=0G^*_0=0G0∗​=0. The strategy φ=Φ(G∗)\varphi=\Phi(G^*)φ=Φ(G∗) depends only on the gains realized so far and the current price StS_tSt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

φt=Φ(Gt∗)  solves  min⁡θ∈ΘE[(kST+G(θ)T−L)2]\varphi_t=\Phi(G^*_t)\ \text{ solves }\ \min_{\theta\in\Theta}E\big[(kS_T+G(\theta)_T-L)^2\big]φt​=Φ(Gt∗​)  solves  θ∈Θmin​E[(kST​+G(θ)T​−L)2]

for every commitment kkk, every target LLL and every solution G∗G^*G∗ of (10). No constant is hard-coded: the statement is the paper's for arbitrary coefficients satisfying the standing hypotheses.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: φ∈Θ\varphi\in\Thetaφ∈Θ is optimal iff E[(L−kST−G(φ)T) G(θ)T]=0E[(L-kS_T-G(\varphi)_T)\,G(\theta)_T]=0E[(L−kST​−G(φ)T​)G(θ)T​]=0 for every θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ.
  2. Existence (§3.3): equation (10) has a solution with Gt∗∈L2(P)G^*_t\in L^2(P)Gt∗​∈L2(P).
  3. Itô dynamics of ZZZ: dZt=(γt+μt)Zt dt+σtZt dBtdZ_t=(\gamma_t+\mu_t)Z_t\,dt+\sigma_tZ_t\,dB_tdZt​=(γt​+μt​)Zt​dt+σt​Zt​dBt​.
  4. Moment equations for E(ZtGt)E(Z_tG_t)E(Zt​Gt​), E(Gt∗Gt)E(G^*_tG_t)E(Gt∗​Gt​) and E(Gt)E(G_t)E(Gt​), with G=G(θ)G=G(\theta)G=G(θ).
  5. Lemma 2: Ht=E[(L−Zt−Gt∗)G(θ)t]H_t=E[(L-Z_t-G^*_t)G(\theta)_t]Ht​=E[(L−Zt​−Gt∗​)G(θ)t​] satisfies H˙t=−(mt2/vt2)Ht\dot H_t=-(m_t^2/v_t^2)H_tH˙t​=−(mt2​/vt2​)Ht​.
  6. The solution of (13): Ht=H0exp⁡(−∫0tms2/vs2 ds)H_t=H_0\exp(-\int_0^tm_s^2/v_s^2\,ds)Ht​=H0​exp(−∫0t​ms2​/vs2​ds).

Two further items, not milestones, formalize §4: Lemma 3 (a solution of (3) is mean-variance efficient) and §4.1 (maximizing the quadratic utility E[W−cW2]E[W-cW^2]E[W−cW2], c>0c>0c>0, is problem (3) with L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)).

Significance

Proposition 1 gives the optimal dynamic hedge in closed feedback form for every target level at once. Varying LLL traces out the whole mean-variance frontier of terminal wealth (Lemma 3), and the choice L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c) solves the quadratic-utility problem (§4.1); the minimum-variance hedge of §4.3 of the paper is obtained by optimizing over LLL. The result is also an instance of a general pattern: a quadratic hedging problem in an incomplete market reduces to an L2L^2L2 projection onto the space of attainable gains, and the projection is computed by a linear SDE.

The result is proved in the paper, in six pages. No machine-checked version of it, or of any continuous-time hedging result, exists on the platform. A formalization requires Itô's formula for products of Itô processes, the zero-mean property of square-integrable stochastic integrals, Fubini's theorem for moments, and existence for a linear SDE with an Itô-process forcing term; each of these is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The projection step (Lemma 1) is Hilbert-space geometry and the final ODE step is Grönwall. The difficulty lies in between: the orthogonality E[(L−kST−GT∗)G(θ)T]=0E[(L-kS_T-G^*_T)G(\theta)_T]=0E[(L−kST​−GT∗​)G(θ)T​]=0 must be verified against every trading strategy θ\thetaθ, about which only E∫0Tθt2Ft2 dt<∞E\int_0^T\theta_t^2F_t^2\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​θt2​Ft2​dt<∞ is known. A computation that treats θ\thetaθ as bounded, continuous or simple does not suffice. Making the paper's moment computations rigorous requires controlling the integrability of products such as ZtθtFtZ_t\theta_tF_tZt​θt​Ft​ and Gt∗G(θ)tG^*_tG(\theta)_tGt∗​G(θ)t​, proving that the stochastic-integral parts of Itô's product rule are true martingales rather than local martingales, and differentiating expectations in time when the coefficients are only measurable, so that derivatives exist only almost everywhere.

Formalization scope

The stochastic layer is the published definition file Peng1990_SMP_Stochastic (the L2L^2L2 Itô integral and Itô processes on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ time), imported, not redefined. The mission commits to the following conventions.

  • (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε) is one R2\mathbb R^2R2-valued standard Brownian motion; BBB is coordinate 0, ε\varepsilonε coordinate 1, and dξd\xidξ is expanded as ρ dB+1−ρ2 dε\rho\,dB+\sqrt{1-\rho^2}\,d\varepsilonρdB+1−ρ2​dε.
  • The filtration is the natural filtration of (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε), not its augmentation, and trading strategies are progressively measurable instead of predictable. Neither change alters the space of terminal gains.
  • Gains are relations: a gain process is any version of the Itô integral, and every statement quantifies over all versions.
  • The objective E[(W−L)2]E[(W-L)^2]E[(W−L)2] and variances take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so a non-square-integrable wealth cannot be optimal through a junk value 000; inner products carry explicit integrability.
  • ρt∈[−1,1]\rho_t\in[-1,1]ρt​∈[−1,1] (§3.1), not [0,1][0,1][0,1] (§2). The sign of vvv is free; only ∣v∣≥δ>0|v|\ge\delta>0∣v∣≥δ>0 is assumed.
  • "Φ(G∗)\Phi(G^*)Φ(G∗) defined by (9)–(11)" means: for every solution of (10), where a solution includes that Φ(G∗)\Phi(G^*)Φ(G∗) is a trading strategy. The paper takes this membership for granted.
  • Lemma 2 and the moment equations are stated in integral form (Ht=H0−∫0t(m2/v2)H dsH_t=H_0-\int_0^t(m^2/v^2)H\,dsHt​=H0​−∫0t​(m2/v2)Hds), which is the paper's "for almost every ttt" derivative together with absolute continuity; continuity of the coefficients is not assumed.
  • The display for dZdZdZ in the proof of Lemma 2 omits dtdtdt; the drift is (γt+μt)Zt dt(\gamma_t+\mu_t)Z_t\,dt(γt​+μt​)Zt​dt.
  • In §4.1, c>0c>0c>0 is assumed explicitly.

Proposition 1 would hold vacuously if equation (10) had no solution; the existence milestone rules this out and must be proved, not assumed. Contributions are welcome on Itô's product formula and the martingale property of Itô integrals in the Peng framework, on the existence of solutions of linear SDEs, and on the Grönwall-type uniqueness for (13).

Selected references

  • D. Duffie, H. R. Richardson, Mean-Variance Hedging in Continuous Time, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(1) (1991) 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005978
  • S. Peng, A General Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Control Problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4) (1990) 966–979. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
  • P. Protter, Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, Springer, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02619-9
  • D. G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, Wiley, 1969.
  • M. Schweizer, Mean-Variance Hedging for General Claims, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(1) (1992) 171–179. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005776
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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Cooperative Fuzzy Games 1: A Balanced Game without Side Payments Has a Nonempty Core Containing the Core of Its Fuzzy ExtensionResearch Paper

Motivation

A game without side payments (an NTU game) describes cooperation in which utility cannot be transferred between players: each coalition AAA of players is assigned the set V(A)V(A)V(A) of payoff vectors it can secure on its own. The core is the set of payoffs to the grand coalition that no coalition can improve upon. Whether the core is nonempty is the basic stability question of cooperative game theory. For games with side payments the answer is the Bondareva–Shapley theorem. For NTU games it is Scarf's theorem (Scarf 1967): a balanced game has a nonempty core. Billera (1970) gave a convex version, in which the payoff sets are convex and balancedness is stated with weighted Minkowski sums.

Aubin's paper (Aubin 1981) obtains Billera's version of the theorem by a different route. Players may join coalitions at fractional rates of participation, and the paper first proves a core existence theorem for these fuzzy games. The game on ordinary coalitions is then embedded into a fuzzy game whose core lies inside the core of the original game.

Setting

The players are N={1,…,n}N = \{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. A coalition A⊆NA \subseteq NA⊆N is identified with its characteristic vector τA∈{0,1}n\tau^A \in \{0,1\}^nτA∈{0,1}n, and τN=(1,…,1)\tau^N = (1,\dots,1)τN=(1,…,1). A fuzzy coalition is a vector τ∈[0,1]n\tau \in [0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n of participation rates with support Aτ={i:τi>0}A_\tau = \{i : \tau_i > 0\}Aτ​={i:τi​>0}. Write (τ⋅c)i=τici(\tau\cdot c)_i = \tau_i c_i(τ⋅c)i​=τi​ci​, Rτ=τ⋅Rn\mathbb{R}^\tau = \tau\cdot\mathbb{R}^nRτ=τ⋅Rn for the vectors vanishing off AτA_\tauAτ​, R+τ\mathbb{R}^\tau_+R+τ​ for its nonnegative part, and R˚+τ\mathring{\mathbb{R}}^\tau_+R˚+τ​ for the vectors strictly positive on AτA_\tauAτ​.

A fuzzy game without side payments assigns to each τ≥0\tau \ge 0τ≥0 a nonempty, closed, convex set V(τ)⊆RτV(\tau)\subseteq\mathbb{R}^\tauV(τ)⊆Rτ. Each V(τ)V(\tau)V(τ) is comprehensive, meaning V(τ)=V(τ)−R+τV(\tau) = V(\tau)-\mathbb{R}^\tau_+V(τ)=V(τ)−R+τ​, and bounded above, meaning V(τ)⊆C−R+τV(\tau)\subseteq C-\mathbb{R}^\tau_+V(τ)⊆C−R+τ​ for some CCC. The map is positively homogeneous: V(tτ)=tV(τ)V(t\tau) = tV(\tau)V(tτ)=tV(τ) for every t>0t>0t>0. Its core is the set of c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) such that τ⋅c∉V(τ)−R˚+τ\tau\cdot c\notin V(\tau)-\mathring{\mathbb{R}}^\tau_+τ⋅c∈/V(τ)−R˚+τ​ for every fuzzy coalition τ≠0\tau\neq 0τ=0. With the support function v(τ,λ)=sup⁡c∈V(τ)∑iλiciv(\tau,\lambda)=\sup_{c\in V(\tau)}\sum_i\lambda_i c_iv(τ,λ)=supc∈V(τ)​∑i​λi​ci​ and the simplex MnM^nMn, a weak (resp. strong) canonical cooperative equilibrium is a c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) together with a λˉ∈Mn\bar\lambda\in M^nλˉ∈Mn (resp. λˉ\bar\lambdaλˉ with all coordinates positive) satisfying ∑iλˉiτici≥v(τ,λˉ)\sum_i\bar\lambda^i\tau_ic_i\ge v(\tau,\bar\lambda)∑i​λˉiτi​ci​≥v(τ,λˉ) for every τ∈[0,1]n\tau\in[0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n.

A usual NTU game lives on a family C\mathcal{C}C of coalitions that contains NNN and every singleton. For each A∈CA\in\mathcal{C}A∈C, the set V(A)⊆RAV(A)\subseteq\mathbb{R}^AV(A)⊆RA is nonempty, closed, convex, comprehensive and bounded above. A balance of τ\tauτ is a vector of weights m≥0m\ge 0m≥0 on C\mathcal{C}C with ∑A∋im(A)=τi\sum_{A\ni i}m(A)=\tau_i∑A∋i​m(A)=τi​ for every iii, and C(τ)\mathcal{C}(\tau)C(τ) is the set of balances of τ\tauτ. The fuzzy extension of the game is

πV(τ)=⋃m∈C(τ) ∑A∈Cm(A) V(A),\pi V(\tau)=\bigcup_{m\in\mathcal{C}(\tau)}\ \sum_{A\in\mathcal{C}} m(A)\,V(A),πV(τ)=m∈C(τ)⋃​ A∈C∑​m(A)V(A),

and the game is balanced if V(N)=πV(τN)V(N)=\pi V(\tau^N)V(N)=πV(τN).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1

For a balanced game without side payments,

∅≠core⁡(πV)⊆core⁡(V),CCEstrong(V)⊆core⁡(πV)⊆CCEweak(V),\emptyset\neq\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(V),\qquad \mathrm{CCE}_{\rm strong}(V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\mathrm{CCE}_{\rm weak}(V),∅=core(πV)⊆core(V),CCEstrong​(V)⊆core(πV)⊆CCEweak​(V),

and in particular core⁡(V)≠∅\operatorname{core}(V)\neq\emptysetcore(V)=∅.

Milestones

  • Proposition 3.1: c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) is in the core iff the maximum complaint α(c)=sup⁡τ≠0inf⁡λ∈Mτ[v(τ,λ)−∑iλiτici]\alpha(c)=\sup_{\tau\neq0}\inf_{\lambda\in M^\tau}[v(\tau,\lambda)-\sum_i\lambda^i\tau_ic_i]α(c)=supτ=0​infλ∈Mτ​[v(τ,λ)−∑i​λiτi​ci​] is ≤0\le 0≤0.
  • Proof of Theorem 3.1(b): if VVV is superadditive, V(τ)+V(σ)⊆V(τ+σ)V(\tau)+V(\sigma)\subseteq V(\tau+\sigma)V(τ)+V(σ)⊆V(τ+σ), then τ↦v(τ,λ)\tau\mapsto v(\tau,\lambda)τ↦v(τ,λ) is concave on R+n\mathbb{R}^n_+R+n​.
  • Theorem 3.1: strong equilibria lie in the core, and for a superadditive game the core lies in the set of weak equilibria.
  • Theorem 5.1: a superadditive fuzzy game has a nonempty core.
  • §7, (6), (7), (11): πV\pi VπV is a superadditive fuzzy game that extends VVV, and its support function is πv(τ,λ)=sup⁡m∈C(τ)∑Am(A)v(A,λ)\pi v(\tau,\lambda)=\sup_{m\in\mathcal{C}(\tau)}\sum_A m(A)v(A,\lambda)πv(τ,λ)=supm∈C(τ)​∑A​m(A)v(A,λ).
  • §7 and the proof of Theorem 7.1: under balancedness, core⁡(πV)⊆core⁡(V)\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(V)core(πV)⊆core(V), and the equilibria of VVV coincide with those of πV\pi VπV.

Significance

Theorem 7.1 gives the core existence result for convex NTU games under Billera's balancedness condition. Its proof goes through a statement about fuzzy coalitions, Theorem 5.1, which uses no combinatorial pivoting. That theorem also has independent uses. Its fuzzy core is the solution concept that §4 of the paper identifies with Walras equilibria of exchange economies. The canonical cooperative equilibria give a price-like certificate, a common rate of transfer λˉ\bar\lambdaλˉ, that sandwiches the core.

The results are classical and proved. Prove2Me holds no statement of Scarf's or Billera's theorem, of NTU cores, or of balancedness for games without side payments, and Mathlib has none of these notions. The mission produces faithful statements of the paper's chain of results, and their proofs once solvers close them. It also builds reusable infrastructure: support functions of comprehensive sets, Minkowski combinations indexed by balances, and positively homogeneous set-valued maps.

Difficulty

Most of §7 is bookkeeping with Minkowski sums. The hard part is Theorem 5.1, the existence of a point in the fuzzy core. The core is defined by infinitely many exclusion conditions, one for each τ∈[0,1]n\tau\in[0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n, so a finite intersection argument does not apply directly. The paper's route works with prices: it uses the superdifferential of the concave map τ↦v(τ,λ)\tau\mapsto v(\tau,\lambda)τ↦v(τ,λ) at τN\tau^NτN, Ky Fan's inequality on a truncated simplex where all λi≥ε\lambda_i\ge\varepsilonλi​≥ε, and a limit as ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0. That limit requires compactness of the approximating payoffs, and at the boundary of the simplex the superdifferential map is not upper semicontinuous. Theorem 3.1(b) needs a minisup theorem for a function that is concave in τ\tauτ and convex and lower semicontinuous in λ\lambdaλ. Mathlib has neither Ky Fan's inequality nor this minimax theorem in that form.

Formalization scope

All statements import one definitions file, FuzzyGames.NTUCore.Basic. The formalization commits to the following conventions.

  • Players are Fin n, and payoffs, fuzzy coalitions and rates of transfer are Fin n → ℝ, ordered coordinatewise. Rτ\mathbb{R}^\tauRτ is encoded as "vanishes where τi=0\tau_i=0τi​=0", which equals τ⋅Rn\tau\cdot\mathbb{R}^nτ⋅Rn for τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0.
  • Fuzzy games are defined directly on the orthant τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0, the paper's extension of VVV from [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n by homogeneity. Homogeneity holds for every t>0t>0t>0, and superadditivity holds on R+n\mathbb{R}^n_+R+n​.
  • Support functions, α\alphaα and πv\pi vπv take values in EReal, so an unbounded supremum is +∞+\infty+∞ and never a junk 000.
  • The supremum defining α(c)\alpha(c)α(c) ranges over τ≠0\tau\neq0τ=0. Since M0=∅M^0=\emptysetM0=∅, including τ=0\tau=0τ=0 would make α≡+∞\alpha\equiv+\inftyα≡+∞ and Proposition 3.1 false. Blocking coalitions are likewise τ≠0\tau\neq0τ=0, as in §3 (4).
  • C\mathcal{C}C is a finite family of nonempty coalitions that contains NNN and every singleton. "∀A≠∅\forall A\neq\emptyset∀A=∅" in §7 ranges over C\mathcal{C}C.
  • The paper leaves n≥1n\ge1n≥1 implicit. Theorem 3.1(b) and Theorem 5.1 carry 0<n0<n0<n: for n=0n=0n=0 the simplex is empty while the core is not.
  • In §7 (11), πv(τ,λ)\pi v(\tau,\lambda)πv(τ,λ), which the paper uses without defining it, is taken to be the extension §6 (2) applied to A↦v(A,λ)A\mapsto v(A,\lambda)A↦v(A,λ), for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0.
  • The §7 sentence after (5) is stated with two extra conclusions: πV(τ)\pi V(\tau)πV(τ) is nonempty and contained in Rτ\mathbb{R}^\tauRτ. These are the remaining requirements of §3 (3) that are needed to apply Theorem 5.1.
  • Sums and scalings of sets are Mathlib's pointwise operations.

The fuzzy-game axioms are a Prop-valued structure and are hypotheses of every theorem. The core and the equilibria are defined for an arbitrary set-valued map, so the theorems about πV\pi VπV do not presuppose that it is a fuzzy game. That fact is the content of the §7 milestones and is not assumed. Non-vacuity has been checked locally on a concrete instance: V(τ)={c∈Rτ:c≤τ}V(\tau)=\{c\in\mathbb{R}^\tau: c\le\tau\}V(τ)={c∈Rτ:c≤τ} is a superadditive fuzzy game, and V(A)={c∈RA:c≤τA}V(A)=\{c\in\mathbb{R}^A:c\le\tau^A\}V(A)={c∈RA:c≤τA} is a balanced game on every admissible C\mathcal{C}C, with (1,…,1)(1,\dots,1)(1,…,1) in both cores.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the §7 Minkowski-sum lemmas, the support-function identities, and a minisup or Ky Fan theorem in the form the proofs need. Reusable pieces include support functions of comprehensive sets and Sion-type minimax.

Selected references

  • J.-P. Aubin, Cooperative Fuzzy Games, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1) (1981) 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.1
  • H. E. Scarf, The Core of an N Person Game, Econometrica 35(1) (1967) 50–69. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909888
  • L. J. Billera, Some Theorems on the Core of an n-Person Game without Side-Payments, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 18(3) (1970) 567–579. https://doi.org/10.1137/0118053
  • K. Fan, A Minimax Inequality and Applications, in O. Shisha (ed.), Inequalities III, Academic Press (1972) 103–113.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model: The Perfect Equilibrium Partitions Are the Nonempty Closed Intervals A = Δ₁ and B = Δ₂ = A − εResearch Paper

Motivation

Alternating-offer bargaining asks how an agreement is selected when two people can keep making proposals until one accepts. A prediction based only on behavior at the start may rely on threats that would no longer be sensible after a rejection. Ariel Rubinstein's 1982 paper studies strategies after every possible sequence of offers and gives a characterization of the partitions compatible with perfect equilibrium. Its setting has a unit pie, complete information, no fixed last round, and preferences that may describe more than a particular discount formula.

The question matters for sequential bargaining models in which the order of moves and the cost of delay affect the agreement. The paper distinguishes the set obtained when player 1 offers first from the set obtained when player 2 offers first. It also provides applications to fixed bargaining costs and fixed discount factors. This mission targets the paper's general characterization, from which those examples can be studied without building a new equilibrium concept for each preference family.

Setting

A partition is a number s∈S=[0,1]s\in S=[0,1]s∈S=[0,1]: player 1 receives sss of the unit pie and player 2 receives 1−s1-s1−s. An outcome (s,t)(s,t)(s,t) means that the offer sss is accepted in period ttt; (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) denotes perpetual disagreement. Periods of actual play start at 1. The paper also uses (s,0)(s,0)(s,0) when comparing acceptance of a current offer with a future outcome. Each player i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a complete, reflexive, transitive preference relation ≽i\succcurlyeq_i≽i​ on outcomes. Strict preference ≻i\succ_i≻i​ and indifference ∼i\sim_i∼i​ are derived from it.

The game alternates proposals and responses. One player offers a partition, the other accepts or rejects, and rejection makes the responder the next proposer. A strategy specifies what a player does after every possible history, including histories inconsistent with the player's earlier plans. A perfect equilibrium requires the relevant player's continuation to withstand every alternative continuation strategy at each rejected history and to make a planned acceptance or rejection consistent with the current offer. The empty history is included, so the opening proposer must also have no profitable deviation.

Write AAA for the set of player-1 shares reached by perfect equilibria when player 1 opens, and BBB for the corresponding set when player 2 opens. Perpetual disagreement contributes no share to either set. Define Δ⊆S×S\Delta\subseteq S\times SΔ⊆S×S by a pair of one-period thresholds: for (x,y)∈Δ(x,y)\in\Delta(x,y)∈Δ, yyy is the smallest share whose immediate acceptance player 1 weakly prefers to (x,1)(x,1)(x,1), and xxx is the largest share whose immediate acceptance player 2 weakly prefers to (y,1)(y,1)(y,1). Let Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​ and Δ2\Delta_2Δ2​ be its coordinate projections. All four sets contain numbers interpreted as player-1 shares, even when player 2 moves first. These are the objects of Sections 2–5.

Formalization targets

Characterization

Under the paper's five preference assumptions (A-1)–(A-5), the goal is its THEOREM on p. 106:

A=Δ1≠∅,B=Δ2≠∅,A=\Delta_1\ne\varnothing,\qquad B=\Delta_2\ne\varnothing,A=Δ1​=∅,B=Δ2​=∅,

with AAA and BBB nonempty closed intervals and some e≥0e\ge 0e≥0 satisfying

B={a−e:a∈A}.B=\{a-e:a\in A\}.B={a−e:a∈A}.

The translation parameter is allowed to be zero, and either interval may be a single point. The goal fixes the paper's general shape without choosing a particular utility representation or assuming immediate agreement in every equilibrium.

Milestone statements

The attack path follows Lemmas 1–4 and Propositions 1–4 in their printed order. The lemmas constrain how a partition in one opening order relates to a feasible continuation in the other. Proposition 1 places each pair in Δ\DeltaΔ inside A×BA\times BA×B; Proposition 2 asserts existence; Proposition 3 describes Δ\DeltaΔ as a closed segment parallel to the diagonal; Proposition 4 gives the reverse containment of AAA and BBB in the threshold projections. Each numbered result is a separate theorem target.

Significance

The theorem identifies the full set of equilibrium partitions from preference comparisons one period apart. Nonemptiness says the model admits at least one equilibrium partition in either opening order. The interval conclusion describes cases with multiple equilibrium shares, while the translate relation states exactly how reversing the first mover changes the two sets. In the paper's discounting example, a single share is selected under the stated parameter conditions; in a fixed-cost boundary case, multiple shares can occur. These are applications in Section 6, not assumptions of the general target.

Rubinstein proved the result in 1982. Here the definitions and theorem statements are Lean drafts; the numbered targets and the main theorem still require machine-checked proofs. A local verification module establishes that one discounting instance satisfies the first three axioms and that the paper's Section 3 strategy example accepts its first offer in period 1. Completing the mission would give a reusable formal account of an infinite-horizon alternating-offer game and its subgame equilibrium conditions, alongside the paper's characterization.

Difficulty

A first-round equilibrium condition does not control what a strategy promises after an offer is rejected. The paper's equilibrium definition checks the entire continuation at every history, with the player's role changing after each rejection. As a result, showing that a proposed share is an equilibrium partition requires more than checking the opening offer: the answer and the next proposal must remain consistent throughout the game tree. The model also allows arbitrary complete preferences satisfying axioms, so a calculation with one discount function cannot establish the general theorem.

The boundary at a zero share requires care. Assumption (A-2) asserts strict preference for earlier positive shares; it says nothing directly about a player receiving zero. The printed proof of Lemma 1 invokes it for a comparison that can occur at that boundary. The local lemma drafts explicitly carry the paper's (A-4) closedness axiom to support that comparison. This added assumption, and its propagation to Lemmas 2–4, is disclosed in the audit notes rather than silently attributed to the Section 4 statement.

Formalization scope

Lean represents SSS as the subtype of real numbers in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Outcomes are an option type: an agreement contains a partition and a natural-number period, while none is perpetual disagreement. This prevents an endless play from acquiring a default last partition. Strategies are unrestricted functions of lists of past offers. The play uses the first accepted offer, with period number one greater than its zero-based sequence index. A subgame after a rejected history restarts the period count and swaps the opening role when the history has odd length. The perfect-equilibrium predicate includes the empty history; acceptance comparisons use period 0 for the offer already on the table.

The threshold correspondence uses actual least and greatest elements among partitions in SSS. No real infimum or supremum supplies a default for an empty candidate set. “Closed interval” in the goal means an explicit [ℓ,u][\ell,u][ℓ,u] with ℓ≤u\ell\le uℓ≤u. “A−eA-eA−e” is the image of AAA under a↦a−ea\mapsto a-ea↦a−e. Proposition 3's “parallel line segment” is the full image of a nonempty interval under x↦(x,x−e)x\mapsto(x,x-e)x↦(x,x−e). These readings exclude a vacuous equilibrium set, a disagreement-to-zero coercion, and a hard-coded discounting special case.

The common outcome and preference definitions, the history-based strategy and play, and the equilibrium predicate are reusable for other alternating-offer questions. Contributions toward their structural properties, the numbered milestones, and the full theorem are in scope. The two displayed claims inside proofs and the fixed-cost and discounting conclusions are deferred to keep this proposal on the theorem's numbered path. Existing platform entries on Nash's axiomatic bargaining solution and a sealed-offer double auction concern different objects; neither supplies this game's equilibrium definition.

Selected references

  • Ariel Rubinstein, Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model, Econometrica 50(1), 97–109, 1982. DOI 10.2307/1912531.
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Truncated-Newton Algorithms for Large-Scale Unconstrained Optimization 1: Truncated-Newton CG Iterates Have ‖g(x_k)‖ → 0 and Converge to Any Limit Point with Positive Definite HessianResearch Paper

Motivation

Large scale unconstrained optimization often makes an exact Newton step expensive. At each iterate, Newton's method asks for a solution of a linear system involving the Hessian, and the cost of solving that system can dominate the cost of evaluating the objective. Dembo and Steihaug's 1983 truncated Newton method uses conjugate gradients to stop the linear solve early, either when the residual is small enough or when the current direction has insufficient positive curvature. The resulting direction is paired with a line search. The question for this mission is whether those early exits still give a globally reliable optimization method under the paper's assumptions. The answer, in Theorem 2.1, is that every resulting run has gradient norm tending to zero, and a positive definite Hessian at one limit point makes the whole sequence converge to that point.

Setting

The objective is a twice continuously differentiable function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R. Write g(x)=∇f(x)g(x)=\nabla f(x)g(x)=∇f(x) for its gradient and H(x)=Dg(x)H(x)=Dg(x)H(x)=Dg(x) for its Hessian. For every initial point x0x_0x0​, the paper assumes that the sublevel set L(x0)={x:f(x)≤f(x0)}L(x_0)=\{x:f(x)\le f(x_0)\}L(x0​)={x:f(x)≤f(x0​)} is bounded. The formalization uses the Euclidean norm and its inner product, so the operator norm of HHH is also Euclidean.

At a major iterate xkx_kxk​, the minor conjugate-gradient iteration starts at p0=0p_0=0p0​=0 with residual and direction r0=d0=−g(xk)r_0=d_0=-g(x_k)r0​=d0​=−g(xk​). It maintains a scalar δi\delta_iδi​, initialized to ∥r0∥2\|r_0\|^2∥r0​∥2, alongside the usual conjugate-gradient state. Before taking its next conjugate-gradient step, it checks whether ⟨di,H(xk)di⟩≤εδi\langle d_i,H(x_k)d_i\rangle\le\varepsilon\delta_i⟨di​,H(xk​)di​⟩≤εδi​. If so, it returns d0=−g(xk)d_0=-g(x_k)d0​=−g(xk​) when i=0i=0i=0 and the current approximation pip_ipi​ otherwise. If this first test fails, it takes a conjugate-gradient step and checks whether ∥ri+1∥≤ηk∥g(xk)∥\|r_{i+1}\|\le\eta_k\|g(x_k)\|∥ri+1​∥≤ηk​∥g(xk​)∥. If so, it returns pi+1p_{i+1}pi+1​. A TNCG direction is the direction returned by the first exit that occurs. The forcing value ηk\eta_kηk​ sets the residual tolerance.

The major iteration chooses a positive step length λk\lambda_kλk​. With pkp_kpk​ the minor iteration's output and 0<α<1/20<\alpha<1/20<α<1/2, α<β<1\alpha<\beta<1α<β<1, the line search requires both sufficient decrease and a curvature condition:

f(xk+λkpk)≤f(xk)+αλk⟨g(xk),pk⟩,⟨g(xk+λkpk),pk⟩≥β⟨g(xk),pk⟩.f(x_k+\lambda_k p_k)\le f(x_k)+\alpha\lambda_k\langle g(x_k),p_k\rangle, \qquad \langle g(x_k+\lambda_kp_k),p_k\rangle\ge\beta\langle g(x_k),p_k\rangle.f(xk​+λk​pk​)≤f(xk​)+αλk​⟨g(xk​),pk​⟩,⟨g(xk​+λk​pk​),pk​⟩≥β⟨g(xk​),pk​⟩.

The update is xk+1=xk+λkpkx_{k+1}=x_k+\lambda_kp_kxk+1​=xk​+λk​pk​. A run is a sequence satisfying this rule from its specified starting point. The paper also states an alternative function-value curvature condition; this mission defines it because the local unit-step theorem discusses both choices, although the main run uses the displayed gradient condition.

Formalization targets

Global convergence

For every starting point there is a TNCG run, and every run satisfies

∥g(xk)∥⟶0.\|g(x_k)\|\longrightarrow0.∥g(xk​)∥⟶0.

If x∗x^*x∗ is a limit point of that run and H(x∗)H(x^*)H(x∗) is positive definite, then

xk⟶x∗.x_k\longrightarrow x^*.xk​⟶x∗.

The existence clause is the formal meaning of the paper's assertion that the iterates are well defined. The six milestones follow the paper's appendix: the conjugate-gradient relations of Theorem A.1; the uniform descent and direction bounds of Lemma A.2; the line-search existence and directional-derivative limit used in the proof of Theorem A.3; Theorem A.3 itself; and eventual unit-step admissibility in Theorem A.4. The companion Theorem 2.2 addresses the eventual residual exit and unit-step behavior when a run converges to a point with positive definite Hessian. These results are all stated in the original paper.

Significance

The target shows that the computational shortcut in the inner linear solve preserves a global first-order guarantee: no TNCG run can maintain a gradient norm bounded away from zero. It also identifies when the sequence has one limit, rather than merely having stationary accumulation points. The local companion result describes the regime where the truncated method can take full steps and the residual stopping test governs the minor iteration.

The mathematical results are proved in the 1983 paper, while this mission's Lean statements are open proof targets. A complete formalization would connect the finite-dimensional conjugate-gradient recurrence, the line-search argument on bounded sublevel sets, and the convergence statement in one machine-checked development. The conjugate-gradient identities and line-search facts could be reused in other optimization algorithms; the exact first-exit model and the global conclusion are specific to this method.

Difficulty

The minor iteration is not an ordinary positive definite conjugate-gradient solve. The Hessian may be indefinite away from a solution, and the iteration must stop at insufficient curvature before using a later residual state. A convergence argument that assumes positive definiteness at every iterate would therefore miss the case the algorithm was designed to handle. The line search must work for the returned direction, including the first iteration's steepest-descent fallback. The limit-point conclusion adds a separate issue: a vanishing gradient norm alone does not force an entire sequence to converge to a chosen limit point.

Formalization scope

Lean represents Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), uses its Euclidean norm and inner product, and defines H(x)H(x)H(x) as the derivative of the gradient. The objective is C2C^2C2 and every sublevel set is bounded, as specified at the start of the paper. The TNCG recurrence is total, but an admissible direction must come from its first actual exit, with the curvature test preceding the residual test. At i=0i=0i=0, the curvature exit returns −g-g−g, not the zero initial approximation. This prevents a false stationary run. The residual test is written as a product inequality, equivalent to the paper's quotient when the residual test is reached.

Step lengths are positive. A run is extended through stationary points by zero directions, giving an infinite sequence on which a limit can be stated. Theorem 2.1 imposes no extra restriction on the forcing sequence and no upper bound on step lengths. Theorem A.1 corrects the printed Krylov-space index from Hk−1gH^{k-1}gHk−1g to HkgH^kgHkg. Theorem A.4 adds g(x∗)=0g(x^*)=0g(x∗)=0, needed for the conclusion and true in the paper's applications. Theorem 2.2 requires nonnegative forcing values and guards its residual-exit conclusion at stationary iterates. These corrections are recorded item by item in the moderation notes. Contributions to the conjugate-gradient identities, bounded-level-set line search, and isolated-limit-point argument are all within scope.

Selected references

  • R. S. Dembo and T. Steihaug, Truncated-Newton algorithms for large-scale unconstrained optimization, Mathematical Programming 26 (1983), 190–212. DOI: 10.1007/BF02592055.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments V: Stackelberg Matroid Pricing Is an Assortment Problem Under a Regular Choice ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

In Stackelberg network pricing a leader sets prices on some resources, and a follower then buys the cheapest structure available to them, paying the leader for the priced resources they use. The Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree problem, introduced by Cardinal, Demaine, Fiorini, Joret, Langerman, Newman and Weimann (Algorithmica 2011), is the version in which the follower buys a minimum spanning tree. The best known approximation factors for it are those of uniform pricing, which gives every priced edge the same price (Berbeglia–Joret, p. 21).

Independently, revenue management studies assortment optimisation: a seller chooses which products to offer, and customers choose among the offered products according to a discrete choice model. Berbeglia and Joret (arXiv:1606.01371, Algorithmica 2020) analyse the revenue-ordered heuristic (offer every product whose revenue is at least some threshold) under any regular choice model, and prove tight approximation bounds.

§4.6 of that paper shows that the two problems are the same problem: a Stackelberg Matroid pricing instance is an assortment problem under a regular choice model, and uniform pricing is the revenue-ordered heuristic on that model. The bounds of Cardinal et al. on uniform pricing thus become special cases of the general bounds on revenue-ordered assortments. This mission formalizes that correspondence (Theorem 4.16).

Setting

Choice model. Let C\mathcal CC be a finite set of products. A system of choice probabilities assigns to each offered set S⊆CS\subseteq\mathcal CS⊆C and product xxx a probability P(x,S)\mathcal P(x,S)P(x,S), with no-purchase probability P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S). It is regular if (i) all probabilities are nonnegative, (ii) P(x,S)=0\mathcal P(x,S)=0P(x,S)=0 for x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S, (iii) ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤1\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le1∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤1, and (iv) P(x,S)≥P(x,S′)\mathcal P(x,S)\ge\mathcal P(x,S')P(x,S)≥P(x,S′) whenever S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′ and x∈S∪{0}x\in S\cup\{0\}x∈S∪{0}. With revenues r:C→R>0r:\mathcal C\to\mathbb R_{>0}r:C→R>0​, rev(S)=∑x∈SP(x,S)r(x)\mathrm{rev}(S)=\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)r(x)rev(S)=∑x∈S​P(x,S)r(x) and OPT=max⁡Srev(S)\mathrm{OPT}=\max_S\mathrm{rev}(S)OPT=maxS​rev(S). The revenue-ordered assortment generated by yyy is {y′∈C:r(y′)≥r(y)}\{y'\in\mathcal C:r(y')\ge r(y)\}{y′∈C:r(y′)≥r(y)}.

Greedy algorithm. Given a family of independent sets, a linear ordering LLL and a set FFF, greedy(F,L)\mathrm{greedy}(F,L)greedy(F,L) scans FFF in the order induced by LLL, starting from ∅\emptyset∅, and adds each element that keeps the current set independent.

Stackelberg Matroid problem. An instance is a matroid M=(E,X)M=(E,\mathcal X)M=(E,X), a bipartition E=R⊔BE=R\sqcup BE=R⊔B into red and blue elements, and red costs c:R→R>0c:R\to\mathbb R_{>0}c:R→R>0​; some base of MMM lies inside RRR. The leader chooses prices p:B→R>0p:B\to\mathbb R_{>0}p:B→R>0​. The customer buys a minimum-weight base by running greedy on R∪BR\cup BR∪B with an ordering L∗L^*L∗ that is non-decreasing in weight (ccc on RRR, ppp on BBB) and puts blue elements first on ties. The leader earns revStack(p,L∗)=∑e∈B∩greedyM(R∪B,L∗)p(e)\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{Stack}}(p,L^*)=\sum_{e\in B\cap\mathrm{greedy}_M(R\cup B,L^*)}p(e)revStack​(p,L∗)=∑e∈B∩greedyM​(R∪B,L∗)​p(e).

The assortment instance. Let c1<⋯<ckc_1<\dots<c_kc1​<⋯<ck​ be the distinct red costs. Products are C=B×{c1,…,ck}\mathcal C=B\times\{c_1,\dots,c_k\}C=B×{c1​,…,ck​} with r((e,q))=∣B∣ qr((e,q))=|B|\,qr((e,q))=∣B∣q. The auxiliary matroid M′M'M′ on R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C declares XXX independent when it holds at most one pair (e,q)(e,q)(e,q) per blue eee and (R∩X)∪{e:(e,q)∈X}(R\cap X)\cup\{e:(e,q)\in X\}(R∩X)∪{e:(e,q)∈X} is independent in MMM. With an ordering LLL of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C that is non-decreasing in cost and puts products before red elements on ties, P((e,q),S)=1/∣B∣\mathcal P((e,q),S)=1/|B|P((e,q),S)=1/∣B∣ if (e,q)∈greedyM′(R∪S,L)(e,q)\in\mathrm{greedy}_{M'}(R\cup S,L)(e,q)∈greedyM′​(R∪S,L) and 000 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.16 (p. 24)

For the instance above, with B≠∅B\ne\emptysetB=∅ and every admissible LLL:

P is regular,r>0,max⁡S⊆Crev(S)=max⁡p>0, L∗revStack(p,L∗),\mathcal P\ \text{is regular},\quad r>0,\qquad \max_{S\subseteq\mathcal C}\mathrm{rev}(S)=\max_{p>0,\ L^*}\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{Stack}}(p,L^*),P is regular,r>0,S⊆Cmax​rev(S)=p>0, L∗max​revStack​(p,L∗),

and uniform pricing corresponds to revenue-ordered assortments: for each cic_ici​ some revenue-ordered assortment earns the revenue of the uniform price cic_ici​, and every revenue-ordered assortment earns the revenue of some uniform price cic_ici​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.14 (p. 23): for F⊆F′F\subseteq F'F⊆F′, ∣greedyM(F′,L)∣≥∣greedyM(F,L)∣|\mathrm{greedy}_M(F',L)|\ge|\mathrm{greedy}_M(F,L)|∣greedyM​(F′,L)∣≥∣greedyM​(F,L)∣ and F∩greedyM(F′,L)⊆greedyM(F,L)F\cap\mathrm{greedy}_M(F',L)\subseteq\mathrm{greedy}_M(F,L)F∩greedyM​(F′,L)⊆greedyM​(F,L).
  2. Property (14) (p. 31): orderings agreeing on a block partition make greedy pick the same number of elements per block.
  3. Lemma 4.15 (p. 23): the Stackelberg revenue does not depend on the compatible ordering.
  4. M′M'M′ is a matroid (p. 32).
  5. Regularity of P\mathcal PP (pp. 32–33).
  6. rev(S)\mathrm{rev}(S)rev(S) equals the Stackelberg revenue of pS(e)=min⁡{q:(e,q)∈S}p_S(e)=\min\{q:(e,q)\in S\}pS​(e)=min{q:(e,q)∈S} (pp. 33–34).
  7. Rounding prices up to the cost levels does not decrease revenue (p. 34).
  8. For prices in {c1,…,ck}∪{+∞}\{c_1,\dots,c_k\}\cup\{+\infty\}{c1​,…,ck​}∪{+∞}, rev(Sp)\mathrm{rev}(S_p)rev(Sp​) equals the Stackelberg revenue of ppp (pp. 34–35).

Significance

Theorem 4.16 transfers every guarantee for revenue-ordered assortments under regular models to uniform pricing in Stackelberg Matroid pricing. Specialising Theorems 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3 of the paper through it gives exactly the three bounds on uniform pricing proved by Cardinal et al. for Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree (Theorem 3 of their paper), which those authors showed to be tight (p. 24). It also places uniform pricing inside a general picture: it is a threshold policy for a regular choice model whose purchase probabilities come from a matroid greedy algorithm, and the paper notes that the argument extends to polymatroids.

The result is proved in the paper, with two steps left to the reader (M′M'M′ is a matroid) or justified briefly (rounding prices). No machine-checked proof exists. A formalization also produces a reusable greedy algorithm on finite matroids with its monotonicity properties (Lemma 4.14, (14)), which Mathlib at the pinned revision does not have.

Difficulty

The obvious argument identifies the customer's run of greedy on (M,R∪B)(M,R\cup B)(M,R∪B) with the run of greedy on (M′,R∪S)(M',R\cup S)(M′,R∪S) step by step. That identification fails as stated: the choice probabilities are defined with one fixed ordering LLL of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C, while the customer's ordering L∗L^*L∗ is any ordering compatible with the prices, and ties among blue elements of equal price, or between a product and a red element of equal cost, may be broken differently. Equality of revenues therefore needs the tie-independence property (14) applied to M′M'M′ as well as to MMM, which in turn needs M′M'M′ to be a matroid. A second gap is axiom (iv) for the no-purchase option: it requires that offering more products never decreases the number of products greedy selects, which is Lemma 4.14 (i)–(ii) for M′M'M′ combined, not a pointwise statement. Finally, the paper's "+∞+\infty+∞" price must be handled with the red base: without a base inside RRR, a blue element priced above all costs can still be bought and the optimum is unbounded.

Formalization scope

  • Elements and orderings. The matroid is a Mathlib Matroid α; RRR, BBB are Finset α with R∪BR\cup BR∪B equal to the ground set; costs and prices are functions α → ℝ, used only on RRR and BBB. A linear ordering is a duplicate-free List covering the set; greedy on FFF scans the whole list and skips elements outside FFF, so FFF is never re-sorted.
  • Greedy is defined for an arbitrary independence predicate on finite sets, so that it applies to M′M'M′ before M′M'M′ is shown to be a matroid.
  • Customer model. Compatibility (15a)–(15b), including blue priority on ties, is part of the definition of an admissible customer ordering. The red base is a field of every instance.
  • Assortment instance. Elements of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C live in α ⊕ (α × ℝ). The paper's conditions (1)–(2) for M′M'M′ contain two typos (a missing "∈X\in X∈X" and X\mathcal XX for XXX); the intended conditions are formalized. The price +∞+\infty+∞ is the real number 1+∑f∈Rc(f)1+\sum_{f\in R}c(f)1+∑f∈R​c(f), strictly above every red cost.
  • Goal shape. The theorem is stated for the explicit instance of the proof, for every admissible LLL. The optimum of the Stackelberg side is a maximum (IsGreatest) over positive real prices and all compatible customer orderings. Cost levels are quantified as elements of the set of red costs rather than by index.
  • Ruled out. An existential statement ("some regular instance has the same optimum") is met by a single product with revenue OPTStack\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{Stack}}OPTStack​ and is not this theorem; so is a customer model without tie-breaking, a formalization without the red base, or Lemma 4.14 only for F=F′F=F'F=F′.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemma 4.14 and (14) for Mathlib matroids (reusable beyond this mission), the matroid property of parallel extensions such as M′M'M′, and the three revenue identities.

Selected references

  • G. Berbeglia and G. Joret, Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments, arXiv:1606.01371v3, 2019 (Algorithmica, 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.01371
  • J. Cardinal, E. D. Demaine, S. Fiorini, G. Joret, S. Langerman, I. Newman and O. Weimann, The Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree Game, Algorithmica 59(2):129–144, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00453-009-9299-y
  • A. Schrijver, Combinatorial Optimization: Polyhedra and Efficiency, Vol. B, Algorithms and Combinatorics 24, Springer, 2003 (matroids and the greedy algorithm). https://link.springer.com/book/9783540443896
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach 2: Empirical Likelihood Intervals for the Optimal Value inf_x E[ℓ(x;ξ)] Have Exact Coverage P(χ²₁ ≤ ρ)Research Paper

Why coverage of an optimal value matters

Many stochastic optimization problems choose a decision by minimizing an expected loss. The optimum depends on an unknown distribution, so a data-based optimum alone gives no measure of uncertainty about the best achievable expected loss. This mission concerns a confidence set for that optimal value, rather than a confidence set for the decision itself. The result of Duchi, Glynn, and Namkoong shows that a broad class of divergence neighborhoods of the empirical distribution yields a calibrated limit for this set. The same construction covers nonsmooth losses and constrained decisions when the regularity assumptions below hold.

The paper develops generalized empirical likelihood for smooth functionals of a distribution and then applies it to optimization. Its Theorem 3 states the exact asymptotic coverage result for the optimal value; Appendix C identifies the functional derivative, while Appendix B gives the uniform linearization and expansion on which calibration rests. The statistical result is proved in the paper. The mission asks for a machine-checked development of its statements and proof under an explicit nondegeneracy condition required by the paper's general coverage theorem.

Decisions, losses, and divergence neighborhoods

Let X⊆Rd\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd be a nonempty compact decision set. An observation ξ\xiξ has population law P0P_0P0​, and ℓ(x;ξ)∈R\ell(x;\xi)\in\mathbb Rℓ(x;ξ)∈R is the loss at decision xxx. The quantity of interest is the optimal-value functional

Topt(P)=inf⁡x∈XEP[ℓ(x;ξ)].T_{\rm opt}(P)=\inf_{x\in\mathcal X}\mathbb E_P[\ell(x;\xi)].Topt​(P)=x∈Xinf​EP​[ℓ(x;ξ)].

The observations ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​ are independent and identically distributed with law P0P_0P0​. Write P^n\widehat P_nPn​ for their empirical distribution. A candidate distribution supported on the indexed observations is represented by nonnegative weights pip_ipi​ with ∑ipi=1\sum_i p_i=1∑i​pi​=1. Indexed weights also cover samples with repeated observations. For a convex divergence generator fff normalized by f(1)=f′(1)=0f(1)=f'(1)=0f(1)=f′(1)=0 and f′′(1)=2f''(1)=2f′′(1)=2, its divergence from the empirical law is Df(p∥P^n)=n−1∑if(npi)D_f(p\|\widehat P_n)=n^{-1}\sum_i f(np_i)Df​(p∥Pn​)=n−1∑i​f(npi​). Assumption A further requires fff to be three times continuously differentiable near 111; it permits f(0)=+∞f(0)=+\inftyf(0)=+∞.

At radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n, the divergence ball consists of the weights with ∑if(npi)≤ρ\sum_i f(np_i)\le\rho∑i​f(npi​)≤ρ. The confidence set is its image under ToptT_{\rm opt}Topt​:

Cn,ρ={Topt(p):Df(p∥P^n)≤ρ/n}.C_{n,\rho}=\{T_{\rm opt}(p):D_f(p\|\widehat P_n)\le\rho/n\}.Cn,ρ​={Topt​(p):Df​(p∥Pn​)≤ρ/n}.

Assumption B makes X\mathcal XX compact and requires ℓ(⋅;ξ)\ell(\cdot;\xi)ℓ(⋅;ξ) to be Lipschitz on it with a measurable random coefficient M(ξ)M(\xi)M(ξ). The theorem adds finite second moments for MMM and for the loss at one feasible decision. These conditions control losses at every feasible decision. They also make the population and weighted empirical infima finite on the cases used in the limit.

Formalization targets

The goal is the exact asymptotic coverage of the population optimal value, with x⋆x^\starx⋆ the unique optimizer and Var⁡P0(ℓ(x⋆;ξ))>0\operatorname{Var}_{P_0}(\ell(x^\star;\xi))>0VarP0​​(ℓ(x⋆;ξ))>0:

P∗ ⁣(Topt(P0)∈Cn,ρ)⟶P(χ12≤ρ),ρ≥0.P^*\!\left(T_{\rm opt}(P_0)\in C_{n,\rho}\right)\longrightarrow P(\chi_1^2\le\rho),\qquad \rho\ge0.P∗(Topt​(P0​)∈Cn,ρ​)⟶P(χ12​≤ρ),ρ≥0.

Here P∗P^*P∗ denotes outer probability, and χ12\chi_1^2χ12​ is the square of a standard normal variable. The milestone statements follow the paper's path to this theorem. Lemma 17 gives the directional derivative of an optimal-value functional. Lemma 13 bounds feasible empirical weights relative to uniform weights. Lemma 16 makes the nonlinear remainder uniformly negligible on the divergence ball. The display after (37) then gives a first-order expansion of the upper endpoint of Cn,ρC_{n,\rho}Cn,ρ​; the next display gives its one-sided Gaussian coverage limit. The goal concerns membership in the image set Cn,ρC_{n,\rho}Cn,ρ​, including both sides of that interval.

What the result provides

The limit specifies a radius through a one degree of freedom chi square quantile. It applies to the value of a constrained stochastic optimization problem without requiring the optimizer or the loss to be differentiable. The positive variance condition ensures that the influence function supplies a genuine Gaussian scale. Without such a condition, a deterministic optimal loss can make coverage identically one, so the stated chi square limit would fail. The general theorem in the paper explicitly requires positive influence variance; this mission makes the condition visible in the specialized optimal-value statement.

A complete formalization would connect finite-sample divergence geometry to an asymptotic confidence claim about an optimization functional. The empirical mean and variance definitions, divergence ball, and normalized generator already exist as reusable declarations. This mission adds the optimal-value functional, its influence function, the nonlinear remainder, and the statistical limits. Those definitions can also support later confidence statements for other stochastic optimization models. The result is proved in the source paper; the Lean statements here are open targets awaiting proofs.

The mathematical obstacle

Pointwise control of each loss ℓ(x;ξ)\ell(x;\xi)ℓ(x;ξ) is insufficient for the optimal value: the decision minimizing an empirical weighted objective can move with the weights. A pointwise mean expansion therefore does not by itself control the infimum over xxx. The required limit combines uniform control over the loss class with sensitivity of the infimum functional near its population minimizer. The uniform remainder in Lemma 16 is stronger than a statement for the ordinary empirical distribution because it covers every distribution in the shrinking divergence ball. The final event is membership in the image of that ball; bounds on its upper endpoint alone do not establish two-sided coverage.

Formalization scope

Lean represents decisions by EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and assumes a nonempty compact feasible set. Assumption B uses its Euclidean norm. The paper allows any norm in finite dimension; norm equivalence permits this choice after rescaling the Lipschitz coefficient. The population law is the pushforward of the first measurable observation from a probability space. Samples are indexed from zero, so the first nnn observations are indices 0,…,n−10,\ldots,n-10,…,n−1. Independence and identical distribution are explicit hypotheses. Loss measurability is explicit so the population integrals have their intended values. Square integrability and compact Lipschitz control keep the real infima meaningful.

The generator takes values in EReal so a divergence infinite at zero is representable. The ball uses the published probability uncertainty set with radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n and includes nonnegativity and unit mass. Its weights represent distributions absolutely continuous with respect to the empirical law. With tied observations, equal splitting across copies preserves the induced distribution and does not increase a convex divergence. The upper endpoint is sup⁡pinf⁡x\sup_p\inf_xsupp​infx​; the different minimax expression inf⁡xsup⁡p\inf_x\sup_pinfx​supp​ is not substituted. The chi square target uses the standard Gaussian measure of {z:z2≤ρ}\{z:z^2\le\rho\}{z:z2≤ρ}.

Mathlib measures are outer measures on arbitrary sets, so the probability of a possibly nonmeasurable membership or supremum event is the paper's outer probability. The Lemma 17 milestone expresses a signed measure through its action H(x)H(x)H(x) on the losses, as Appendix C.2 does, and uses positive directional steps. Real suprema and infima are used only where the hypotheses provide nonempty bounded values. The variance hypothesis rules out the trivial deterministic-loss counterexample. Useful contributions include the compactness and continuity facts needed for those extrema, the action-level derivative, empirical process limits, and the final two-sided event argument.

Selected references

  • John C. Duchi, Peter W. Glynn, and Hongseok Namkoong, Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach, arXiv:1610.03425v3, 2018; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 46(3), 2021. arXiv preprint
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics 1: The k-Nearest-Neighbor Predictive Prescription Is Asymptotically Optimal and ConsistentResearch Paper

Motivation

Operations research has long studied the stochastic problem min⁡z∈ZE[c(z;Y)]\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}\mathbb E[c(z;Y)]minz∈Z​E[c(z;Y)]: choose a decision zzz before an uncertain quantity YYY (demand, prices, returns) is revealed. In practice the decision maker also observes covariates XXX before deciding (web-search volume before stocking a product, weather before routing a shipment) and should solve the conditional problem instead. Bertsimas and Kallus (arXiv:1402.5481v4; Management Science 66(3), 2020) proposed predictive prescriptions: reweight historical observations (xi,yi)(x^i,y^i)(xi,yi) by how relevant they are to the current xxx, using weights borrowed from a nonparametric regression method, and minimize the reweighted sample cost. Their asymptotic theorems guarantee that this procedure converges to the decision that full knowledge of the conditional distribution would give.

The unconditional special case, sample average approximation (SAA) with i.i.d. draws of YYY and no covariate, has a classical consistency theory (Dupačová–Wets 1988; Shapiro 2003). This mission conditions that theory on XXX, with kkk-nearest-neighbour weights.

Setting

Decisions zzz lie in a set Z⊆Rdz\mathcal Z\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_z}Z⊆Rdz​, covariates XXX in X⊆Rdx\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_x}X⊆Rdx​, uncertainty YYY in Y⊆Rdy\mathcal Y\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_y}Y⊆Rdy​; all three spaces carry the Euclidean norm. A cost c(z;y)∈Rc(z;y)\in\mathbb Rc(z;y)∈R is given. Let μ\muμ be the joint law of (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y), μX\mu_XμX​ the law of XXX and μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ the conditional law of YYY given X=xX=xX=x. The conditional cost and the full-information problem (2) are

C(z∣x)=E[c(z;Y)∣X=x],v∗(x)=min⁡z∈ZC(z∣x),Z∗(x)=arg⁡min⁡z∈ZC(z∣x).C(z\mid x)=\mathbb E\big[c(z;Y)\mid X=x\big],\qquad v^*(x)=\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}C(z\mid x),\qquad \mathcal Z^*(x)=\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}C(z\mid x).C(z∣x)=E[c(z;Y)∣X=x],v∗(x)=z∈Zmin​C(z∣x),Z∗(x)=argz∈Zmin​C(z∣x).

The data are SN={(x1,y1),…,(xN,yN)}S_N=\{(x^1,y^1),\dots,(x^N,y^N)\}SN​={(x1,y1),…,(xN,yN)}, the first NNN terms of an i.i.d. sequence with law μ\muμ. The kNN weights (12) are wN,i(x)=1kI[xiw_{N,i}(x)=\frac1k\mathbb I[x^iwN,i​(x)=k1​I[xi is one of the kkk nearest neighbours of xxx among x1,…,xN]x^1,\dots,x^N]x1,…,xN], with ties among equidistant points broken by lower index first. The predictive prescription (3) is any

z^N(x)∈arg⁡min⁡z∈Z C^N(z∣x),C^N(z∣x)=∑i=1NwN,i(x) c(z;yi).\hat z_N(x)\in\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}\ \widehat C_N(z\mid x),\qquad \widehat C_N(z\mid x)=\sum_{i=1}^N w_{N,i}(x)\,c(z;y^i).z^N​(x)∈argz∈Zmin​ CN​(z∣x),CN​(z∣x)=i=1∑N​wN,i​(x)c(z;yi).

The paper's standing assumptions: Assumption 3 (E∣c(z;Y)∣<∞\mathbb E|c(z;Y)|<\inftyE∣c(z;Y)∣<∞ for every z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z, and Z∗(x)≠∅\mathcal Z^*(x)\ne\emptysetZ∗(x)=∅ for a.e. xxx); Assumption 4 (c(z;y)c(z;y)c(z;y) is equicontinuous in zzz, uniformly over y∈Yy\in\mathcal Yy∈Y); Assumption 5 (Z\mathcal ZZ closed and nonempty, and either bounded, or ccc is bounded below for large ∥z∥\|z\|∥z∥ and for each xxx there is a set DxD_xDx​ of positive conditional probability on which c(z;y)→∞c(z;y)\to\inftyc(z;y)→∞ uniformly as ∥z∥→∞\|z\|\to\infty∥z∥→∞).

Definition 1. z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ is asymptotically optimal if, with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, C(z^N(x)∣x)→v∗(x)C(\hat z_N(x)\mid x)\to v^*(x)C(z^N​(x)∣x)→v∗(x); it is consistent if, with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)∥z^N(x)−z∥→0\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}\|\hat z_N(x)-z\|\to0infz∈Z∗(x)​∥z^N​(x)−z∥→0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (kNN), p. 19 (= Theorem 15, p. 43)

Under Assumptions 3, 4, 5 and i.i.d. sampling, with k=min⁡{⌈CNδ⌉,N−1}k=\min\{\lceil CN^\delta\rceil,N-1\}k=min{⌈CNδ⌉,N−1}, C>0C>0C>0, 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1: with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x) is nonempty, the argmin is eventually nonempty, and every selection z^N(x)\hat z_N(x)z^N​(x) from it satisfies

lim⁡N→∞C(z^N(x)∣x)=v∗(x)andlim⁡N→∞inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)∥z^N(x)−z∥=0.\lim_{N\to\infty}C(\hat z_N(x)\mid x)=v^*(x)\qquad\text{and}\qquad\lim_{N\to\infty}\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}\|\hat z_N(x)-z\|=0 .N→∞lim​C(z^N​(x)∣x)=v∗(x)andN→∞lim​z∈Z∗(x)inf​∥z^N​(x)−z∥=0.

The goal covers both cases of Assumption 5, including unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ such as the newsvendor's [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Walk step (proof of Theorem 15, p. 47). For any measurable hhh with E∣h(Y)∣<∞\mathbb E|h(Y)|<\inftyE∣h(Y)∣<∞, ∑iwN,i(x)h(yi)→E[h(Y)∣X=x]\sum_i w_{N,i}(x)h(y^i)\to\mathbb E[h(Y)\mid X=x]∑i​wN,i​(x)h(yi)→E[h(Y)∣X=x] a.s., for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx.
  2. Lemma 7 (p. 47). Fixed-zzz and fixed-DDD almost-sure convergence upgrade to convergence for all z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z simultaneously and weak convergence μ^Y∣x,N→μY∣x\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}\to\mu_{Y|x}μ^​Y∣x,N​→μY∣x​, off one null set.
  3. Lemma 5 (p. 45). Along one sample path, pointwise convergence C^N(⋅∣x)→C(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)\to C(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x)→C(⋅∣x) is uniform on compact subsets of Z\mathcal ZZ.
  4. Lemma 6, case 1 (pp. 45–47). For bounded Z\mathcal ZZ, the minima and minimizers of C^N(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x) converge to v∗(x)v^*(x)v∗(x) and to Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x).

Significance

Theorem 5 says that a decision computed from data alone, with no model of the conditional distribution, performs asymptotically as well as the decision a decision maker with full knowledge of μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ would take, for almost every covariate value and under mild conditions on the cost. It justifies the kNN prescription in the paper's newsvendor and shipment-planning experiments, and its proof skeleton (a pointwise strong law for the weights, then Lemmas 5–7) is reused for kernel, local-linear and recursive-kernel weights (Theorems 6–9), which could follow as missions of the same shape.

The result is proved in the paper; it has not been machine-checked anywhere. Formalizing it requires a strong law for nearest-neighbour regression with integrable responses (Walk 2010, building on Devroye, Györfi, Krzyżak and Lugosi 1994), which Mathlib does not have, and a careful treatment of conditional laws at a point. One of the paper's lemmas (Lemma 6) is false as printed for unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ; the formalization isolates the correct statement.

Difficulty

The deterministic optimization part (Lemmas 5 and 6 for bounded Z\mathcal ZZ) is a compactness argument. The central difficulty is the probabilistic input. A natural first idea, applying the strong law of large numbers to C^N(z∣x)\widehat C_N(z\mid x)CN​(z∣x), fails: the kNN weights depend on all of x1,…,xNx^1,\dots,x^Nx1,…,xN and on xxx, the effective sample size kNk_NkN​ grows sublinearly, and convergence is required for almost every xxx simultaneously, including xxx that are atoms of μX\mu_XμX​ where ties are the rule. A second difficulty is the exchange of quantifiers: the strong law gives a null set depending on zzz and on the set DDD, and the conclusion needs one null set for all z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z. Finally, for unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ the minimizers of C^N(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x) must be kept bounded, and weak convergence of μ^Y∣x,N\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}μ^​Y∣x,N​ alone does not do so.

Formalization scope

All spaces are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), so kNN distances and ∥z−z′∥\|z-z'\|∥z−z′∥ are Euclidean. The data are a measurable, mutually independent sequence S i : Ω → ℝ^{d_x} × ℝ^{d_y} with each term of law μ\muμ; samples are indexed from 000. The following readings are explicit in the Lean:

  • μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ is the fixed version μ.condKernel x of the conditional law, and C(z∣x)C(z\mid x)C(z∣x) is its Bochner integral; Assumption 5's "for every x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X" refers to this version, and DxD_xDx​ is measurable.
  • Quantifier order is "with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx" (Definition 1), and the selection z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ is quantified inside both a.e. quantifiers: Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x) is nonempty, the argmin is nonempty for all large NNN, and every sequence lying in it for all large NNN is covered.
  • v∗(x)v^*(x)v∗(x) is never a real infimum; it is read as C(z⋆∣x)C(z^\star\mid x)C(z⋆∣x) for z⋆∈Z∗(x)z^\star\in\mathcal Z^*(x)z⋆∈Z∗(x), nonempty a.e. by Assumption 3.
  • Ties are broken lower-index-first, so the weights sum to 111 for N≥2N\ge2N≥2; at N≤1N\le1N≤1 the formula gives k=0k=0k=0 and all weights 000.
  • Lemmas 5–7 assume weights that are eventually nonnegative and sum to 111, the reading of the paper's Eμ^Y∣x,N\mathbb E_{\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}}Eμ^​Y∣x,N​​ notation; weak convergence is tested against bounded continuous functions.
  • Lemma 6 is posed for bounded Z\mathcal ZZ only, without its unused weak-convergence hypothesis; the goal is posed for both cases.

A formalization that replaces the conditional law by an arbitrary kernel unrelated to μ\muμ, takes z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ to be a fixed measurable selection chosen outside the almost-sure quantifier, or reads inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}infz∈Z∗(x)​ on an empty set as 000 without Assumption 3 would trivialize or weaken the result and is ruled out by the statements above.

Needed infrastructure: nearest-neighbour ranks and their combinatorics (Stone's lemma: a point is among the kkk nearest neighbours of at most a bounded number of others), a strong law for kNN regression, portmanteau-type characterizations of weak convergence for weighted empirical measures, and stability of minimizers under locally uniform convergence. The kNN strong law and the stability lemmas are reusable well beyond this mission. Related platform items, credited but not reused (they concern unconditional SAA): SolutionQuality.SRP.prop1_i, SolutionQuality.SRP.prop1_ii, SolutionQuality.SRP.fbar_tendstoUniformlyOn (Bayraksan–Morton 2006) and DupacovaWets.Consistency.consistency_of_measurable_estimates (Dupačová–Wets 1988). Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, N. Kallus, From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics, arXiv:1402.5481v4, 2018; Management Science 66(3), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.5481v4 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3253
  • H. Walk, Strong laws of large numbers and nonparametric estimation, in Recent Developments in Applied Probability and Statistics, Physica-Verlag, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2598-5_8
  • L. Devroye, L. Györfi, A. Krzyżak, G. Lugosi, On the strong universal consistency of nearest neighbor regression function estimates, Annals of Statistics 22(3), 1994. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176325633
  • J. Dupačová, R. Wets, Asymptotic behavior of statistical estimators and of optimal solutions of stochastic optimization problems, Annals of Statistics 16(4), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176351052
  • A. Shapiro, Monte Carlo sampling methods, in Handbooks in OR & MS 10, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)10006-0
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Projected Newton Methods for Optimization Problems with Simple Constraints: The Projected Newton Method Converges Superlinearly to the Minimum of a Convex Function over the Nonnegative OrthantResearch Paper

Motivation

Smooth optimization with nonnegative variables appears when the variables are Lagrange multipliers for inequality constraints or when an objective incorporates an augmented Lagrangian or an exact penalty. Bertsekas studies how to retain a Newton-like convergence rate in this setting while using an iteration that projects a scaled gradient step onto the nonnegative orthant. His 1982 paper also discusses large optimal-control examples, where repeatedly solving a quadratic subproblem may be costly. These are the applications motivating the method, rather than assumptions of the theorem. Bertsekas, 1982.

The paper contrasts a partly diagonal scaling matrix with two other approaches: a fully diagonal projected gradient step, which generally has a linear rate, and a constrained Newton step defined by a quadratic program. The main theoretical question is whether the simpler projected iteration can still identify binding coordinates and converge superlinearly near the solution. The mission covers the nonnegative-orthant method in §2 and its stated convergence results. The paper's later extension to general linear constraints and its computational examples concern different objects. Bertsekas, 1982.

Setting

Fix a dimension n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and a continuously differentiable function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R. Problem (1) minimizes f(x)f(x)f(x) over the nonnegative orthant R+n={x:xi≥0 for every i}\mathbb R_+^n=\{x:x^i\ge0\text{ for every }i\}R+n​={x:xi≥0 for every i}. The positive part [z]+[z]^+[z]+ replaces each negative coordinate of zzz by zero. A feasible xxx is critical when every partial derivative ∂if(x)\partial_i f(x)∂i​f(x) is nonnegative and ∂if(x)=0\partial_i f(x)=0∂i​f(x)=0 wherever xi>0x^i>0xi>0. This is the paper's componentwise first-order condition.

For a feasible iterate xkx_kxk​, the binding set is B(xk)={i:xki=0}B(x_k)=\{i:x_k^i=0\}B(xk​)={i:xki​=0}. The paper selects a larger working set Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ using a fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and the projected-gradient residual wk=∥xk−[xk−M∇f(xk)]+∥w_k=\|x_k-[x_k-M\nabla f(x_k)]^+\|wk​=∥xk​−[xk​−M∇f(xk​)]+∥, where MMM is fixed, diagonal and positive definite. More precisely, Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ contains the indices with 0≤xki≤min⁡(ε,wk)0\le x_k^i\le\min(\varepsilon,w_k)0≤xki​≤min(ε,wk​) and ∂if(xk)>0\partial_i f(x_k)>0∂i​f(xk​)>0. The matrix DkD_kDk​ is symmetric positive definite and has zero off-diagonal entries in the rows indexed by Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. The projected arc and update are

pk=Dk∇f(xk),xk(a)=[xk−apk]+,xk+1=xk(βmk).p_k=D_k\nabla f(x_k),\qquad x_k(a)=[x_k-a p_k]^+,\qquad x_{k+1}=x_k(\beta^{m_k}).pk​=Dk​∇f(xk​),xk​(a)=[xk​−apk​]+,xk+1​=xk​(βmk​).

Here 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and mkm_kmk​ is the first nonnegative integer passing the paper's two-sum Armijo test (37), with 0<σ<1/20<\sigma<1/20<σ<1/2. One sum uses the scaled gradient outside Ik+I_k^+Ik+​; the other uses the actual projected displacement on Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. These details define the algorithm whose rate is at issue. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 228–229.

Formalization targets

The first targets establish the fixed-point and descent properties of the projected arc, positivity of the Armijo right-hand side, well-defined step selection, criticality of limit points, and local attraction with finite binding-set identification. Proposition 3 identifies both the working set and the actual binding set:

Ik+=B(xk)=B(x∗)for all sufficiently late k.I_k^+=B(x_k)=B(x^*)\quad\text{for all sufficiently late }k.Ik+​=B(xk​)=B(x∗)for all sufficiently late k.

The goal is Proposition 4. Let fff be convex and C2C^2C2, let x∗x^*x∗ be the unique minimizer on R+n\mathbb R_+^nR+n​ satisfying Assumption (C), and suppose the Hessian quadratic form has uniform positive lower and finite upper bounds on the initial, unrestricted sublevel set. The scaling matrix is Dk=Hk−1D_k=H_k^{-1}Dk​=Hk−1​, where HkH_kHk​ retains Hessian entries except for off-diagonal entries touching Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. Then

xk⟶x∗,∀c>0 ∃K ∀k≥K: ∥xk+1−x∗∥≤c∥xk−x∗∥.x_k\longrightarrow x^*,\qquad \forall c>0\ \exists K\ \forall k\ge K:\ \|x_{k+1}-x^*\|\le c\|x_k-x^*\|.xk​⟶x∗,∀c>0 ∃K ∀k≥K: ∥xk+1​−x∗∥≤c∥xk​−x∗∥.

If the Hessian is Lipschitz in a neighborhood of x∗x^*x∗, the same proposition states an at-least-quadratic error bound: ∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥2\|x_{k+1}-x^*\|\le C\|x_k-x^*\|^2∥xk+1​−x∗∥≤C∥xk​−x∗∥2 eventually for some C>0C>0C>0. The separate final milestone records the paper's claim that the initial unit trial is eventually accepted. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 233–236.

Significance

Proposition 4 says that this specific orthant-projected Newton iteration converges to the unique constrained optimum with a superlinear rate under its stated smoothness and curvature conditions. Proposition 3 supplies a distinct finite-identification statement: the working and binding coordinates eventually match those at the optimum. These facts specify the behavior of an algorithm that does not define its direction by solving a quadratic program at every step. The paper proves the preceding propositions and states Proposition 4 with its proof left to the reader, referring to its earlier discussion and standard unconstrained Newton results. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 234–236.

Formalizing the claims would provide machine-checked statements and, once solved, proofs for the exact projected arc, two-part line search, matrix selection, identification result and rate conclusion. The local mission items are open proof obligations; their compilation checks the definitions and theorem types, not the mathematical claims. The geometry definitions can also support other orthant-constrained algorithms, while the enlarged working set and Armijo rule belong to this paper's method.

Difficulty

A positive definite matrix by itself does not make projection along [x−aD∇f(x)]+[x-aD\nabla f(x)]^+[x−aD∇f(x)]+ a descent move. An off-diagonal coupling can push coordinates against the boundary in a way that defeats the usual unconstrained descent calculation; the paper gives such a situation before Proposition 1. The partly diagonal condition is therefore substantive. A second obstacle is that the exact active set I+(x)I^+(x)I+(x) can jump at a boundary point: iterates approaching that point from the interior need not have the same indexed rows. The enlarged Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ and its dependence on the residual are central to the finite-identification and rate claims. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 225–229.

Formalization scope

Lean represents Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with the Euclidean norm and zero-based coordinates. The dimension is positive. gradient and the derivative of gradient represent first and second derivatives; the paper's MMM is diag μ with every μi>0\mu^i>0μi>0. The run predicate includes a feasible initial point and the first acceptable integer mkm_kmk​, and the matrix choices are indexed by iteration. Propositions 1–3 use the paper's explicit admissibility condition. Proposition 4 constructs DkD_kDk​ from HkH_kHk​ and does not assume its invertibility, admissibility, convergence or eventual active-set equality.

Assumption (C) includes local C2C^2C2 smoothness, curvature bounds on directions zero at the binding coordinates, and strict complementarity. A local minimum is required to be feasible as well as locally minimal on the orthant. Limit points use subsequential convergence. Superlinearity uses a uniform eventual error inequality, which also covers an iterate that reaches the solution exactly; a ratio with a zero denominator would distort this case. The paper's Proposition 4 display mistakenly binds a direction to the level set while leaving the Hessian's point free. The formalization states the intended reading: every point in the unrestricted initial level set and every direction satisfy the Hessian bounds. The displayed level set has no x≥0x\ge0x≥0 restriction, so neither does the Lean hypothesis.

A definition that accepts any Armijo exponent or a goal that assumes the eventual identification or convergence conclusion would erase the paper's claim. Contributions can build the matrix and projected-arc lemmas, the convergence and identification proofs, and the final rate proof. The local inverse-Hessian observation before Proposition 4 is discussed in the notes but has no separate milestone until its full local setting can be captured without weakening it.

Selected references

  • Dimitri P. Bertsekas, Projected Newton Methods for Optimization Problems with Simple Constraints, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 20(2), 221–246, 1982. DOI: 10.1137/0320018.
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Hryniewicz's Criterion: Disk-like Global Sections of Dynamically Convex Reeb Flows on S³Research Paper

Motivation

A global surface of section reduces a flow on a closed 3-manifold to an area-preserving map of a surface. It is a compact embedded surface whose boundary consists of periodic orbits, whose interior is transverse to the flow, and which every other trajectory hits infinitely often in forward and backward time. Poincaré introduced the idea for the restricted three-body problem. Once a section is a disk, results on area-preserving disk maps (Brouwer, Franks) give periodic orbits and other structure for the whole flow.

For Hamiltonian flows on star-shaped energy surfaces in R4\mathbb{R}^4R4, equivalently Reeb flows on the tight 3-sphere, it is natural to ask which periodic orbits bound such a disk. Hryniewicz's criterion answers this for dynamically convex flows, with no genericity assumption. The answer is purely topological: a periodic orbit bounds a disk-like global section exactly when it is unknotted with self-linking number −1-1−1. The criterion is used in celestial mechanics: Joung and van Koert apply it to validated periodic orbits of the restricted three-body problem (arXiv:2407.19159).

Timeline.

  • 1998. Hofer, Wysocki and Zehnder prove that every dynamically convex contact form on S3S^3S3 has some periodic orbit P0P_0P0​, with Conley–Zehnder index 333, that bounds a disk-like global section. That disk is a page of an open book adapted to the flow. Strictly convex energy surfaces in R4\mathbb{R}^4R4 are dynamically convex (Ann. of Math. 148).
  • 2008/2012. Hryniewicz proves the "unknotted, self-linking −1-1−1" characterization in the non-degenerate case (arXiv:0812.4076).
  • 2010/2011. Hryniewicz and Salomão treat non-degenerate tight contact forms on S3S^3S3. Two extra conditions appear there: μCZ≥3\mu_{CZ}\ge 3μCZ​≥3, and linking with every orbit of index 222 (arXiv:1006.0049).
  • 2011/2014. Hryniewicz removes non-degeneracy for dynamically convex forms (arXiv:1105.2077, Theorem 1.7). In the same paper, Theorem 1.8 shows that any orbit coming from a fixed point of the first-return map of a disk-like section is again such a binding.
  • 2012. Albers, Fish, Frauenfelder, Hofer and van Koert use this circle of ideas to get disk-like sections in the planar circular restricted three-body problem (arXiv:1103.3881).

Setting

Use coordinates x=(q1,p1,q2,p2)x=(q_1,p_1,q_2,p_2)x=(q1​,p1​,q2​,p2​) on R4\mathbb{R}^4R4, the Liouville form λ0=12∑j(qj dpj−pj dqj)\lambda_0=\tfrac12\sum_j (q_j\,dp_j-p_j\,dq_j)λ0​=21​∑j​(qj​dpj​−pj​dqj​) and the symplectic form ω0=dλ0=∑jdqj∧dpj\omega_0=d\lambda_0=\sum_j dq_j\wedge dp_jω0​=dλ0​=∑j​dqj​∧dpj​.

Let H:R4→RH:\mathbb{R}^4\to\mathbb{R}H:R4→R be smooth and set S=H−1(1)S=H^{-1}(1)S=H−1(1). Assume that every ray from the origin meets SSS exactly once, and that it crosses SSS transversally:

dH(x) x>0(x∈S).dH(x)\,x>0\qquad(x\in S).dH(x)x>0(x∈S).

Then SSS is a strictly star-shaped hypersurface diffeomorphic to S3S^3S3. Every contact form on S3S^3S3 that matters below arises this way, up to diffeomorphism (see Formalization scope).

The Hamiltonian vector field XHX_HXH​ is defined by ιXHω0=−dH\iota_{X_H}\omega_0=-dHιXH​​ω0​=−dH. With this sign, λ0(XH)=12 dH(x) x>0\lambda_0(X_H)=\tfrac12\,dH(x)\,x>0λ0​(XH​)=21​dH(x)x>0 on SSS. So XH∣SX_H|_SXH​∣S​ is a positive multiple of the Reeb vector field of the contact form λ0∣S\lambda_0|_Sλ0​∣S​, and its orbits are the Reeb orbits reparametrized. A periodic orbit P=(x,T)P=(x,T)P=(x,T) is a solution with x(T)=x(0)x(T)=x(0)x(T)=x(0) and T>0T>0T>0. It is prime when TTT is its least positive period. The contact structure is ξ=ker⁡λ0∣S\xi=\ker\lambda_0|_Sξ=kerλ0​∣S​.

  • Conley–Zehnder index. Fix the global frame of ξ\xiξ given by the quaternionic rotations of ∇H\nabla H∇H. Along PPP, the linearized flow restricted to ξ\xiξ is a path φ:[0,1]→Sp(1)\varphi:[0,1]\to Sp(1)φ:[0,1]→Sp(1) with φ(0)=I\varphi(0)=Iφ(0)=I. The winding interval I(φ)I(\varphi)I(φ) collects the total rotations of all nonzero vectors, measured in turns. Then μCZ(P)\mu_{CZ}(P)μCZ​(P) is the lower semicontinuous index of Hryniewicz's §2.1.1. In particular,
μCZ(P)≥3  ⟺  min⁡I(φ)>1,\mu_{CZ}(P)\ge 3 \iff \min I(\varphi)>1,μCZ​(P)≥3⟺minI(φ)>1,

that is, every nonzero transverse vector turns by more than one full turn.

  • Dynamical convexity. The flow is dynamically convex if μCZ(P)≥3\mu_{CZ}(P)\ge 3μCZ​(P)≥3 for every periodic orbit PPP in SSS, prime or multiply covered.
  • Disk-like global surface of section. A smoothly embedded closed disk D⊂SD\subset SD⊂S such that ∂D=x(R)\partial D=x(\mathbb{R})∂D=x(R) for a periodic orbit PPP, XHX_HXH​ is transverse to D∖∂DD\setminus\partial DD∖∂D, and every trajectory not contained in ∂D\partial D∂D meets DDD at arbitrarily large positive and negative times. Then PPP bounds DDD.
  • Unknotted. PPP is unknotted if x(R)x(\mathbb{R})x(R) is the boundary of some smoothly embedded closed disk in SSS.
  • Self-linking number. Push xxx off itself along the global frame of ξ\xiξ to a disjoint loop x′x'x′. Then
sl⁡(P)=lk⁡(x,x′)∈Z,\operatorname{sl}(P)=\operatorname{lk}(x,x')\in\mathbb{Z},sl(P)=lk(x,x′)∈Z,

the linking number in S≅S3S\cong S^3S≅S3, with SSS oriented as the boundary of the star-shaped domain it bounds. This agrees with Hryniewicz's Definition 1.5, which uses a section of ξ\xiξ over a spanning disk.

Formalization targets

Goal: Hryniewicz's criterion (Theorem 1.7, first sentence)

For every dynamically convex strictly star-shaped SSS and every prime periodic orbit Pˉ\bar PPˉ:

Pˉ bounds a disk-like global surface of section  ⟺  Pˉ is unknotted and sl⁡(Pˉ)=−1.\bar P \text{ bounds a disk-like global surface of section} \iff \bar P \text{ is unknotted and } \operatorname{sl}(\bar P)=-1.Pˉ bounds a disk-like global surface of section⟺Pˉ is unknotted and sl(Pˉ)=−1.

The statement fixes no constants and no non-degeneracy, and it covers every dynamically convex star-shaped surface.

Stronger: adapted open book (Theorem 1.7, second sentence)

If Pˉ\bar PPˉ is unknotted with sl⁡(Pˉ)=−1\operatorname{sl}(\bar P)=-1sl(Pˉ)=−1, then S∖xˉ(R)S\setminus \bar x(\mathbb{R})S∖xˉ(R) fibres smoothly over R/Z\mathbb{R}/\mathbb{Z}R/Z. Every fibre is the interior of a disk-like global surface of section whose oriented boundary is Pˉ\bar PPˉ.

Further: new bindings from fixed points (Theorem 1.8)

Let D0D_0D0​ be any disk-like global section. Every periodic orbit through a fixed point of the first-return map of D0∖∂D0D_0\setminus\partial D_0D0​∖∂D0​ is unknotted, has self-linking number −1-1−1, and so bounds the page of an adapted open book.

Significance

The result. The criterion turns a dynamical question into a topological check. It does not depend on whether the orbit is degenerate, and degenerate orbits are what one meets at bifurcations and on symmetric levels. Every periodic orbit in a strictly convex energy surface that is unknotted with sl⁡=−1\operatorname{sl}=-1sl=−1 is a binding, so the flow is organised by many open books at once. Theorem 1.8 makes this concrete: the Hamiltonian flow twists around two different bindings, ∂D0\partial D_0∂D0​ and ∂D1\partial D_1∂D1​. In applications, numerically validated orbits become analytic global sections without a separate non-degeneracy check (Joung–van Koert, Theorems 1.2 and 1.5).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved, in a 50-page paper that relies on Hofer–Wysocki–Zehnder's theory of pseudo-holomorphic curves in symplectizations. It has no machine-checked proof. Mathlib has no Conley–Zehnder index, no self-linking number, no linking number of curves in S3S^3S3, and no global surfaces of section. A Lean statement fixes every sign and orientation convention involved: the sign of XHX_HXH​, the orientation of SSS, which push-off defines sl⁡\operatorname{sl}sl, and the index of degenerate orbits. Each of these is easy to get wrong in prose. Formal proofs of the parts that use no holomorphic curves are valuable on their own: the necessity direction, the description of the index by winding intervals, and the explicit ellipsoid examples.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to approximate the contact form by non-degenerate forms λk→λ\lambda_k\to\lambdaλk​→λ that keep Pˉ\bar PPˉ as an orbit, and then apply the non-degenerate theorems. This fails. The λk\lambda_kλk​ need not be dynamically convex. They can have orbits of very high action with μCZ=2\mu_{CZ}=2μCZ​=2 that are not linked with Pˉ\bar PPˉ, so the Hryniewicz–Salomão criterion does not apply to λk\lambda_kλk​ (Hryniewicz, p. 4). The families of planes that would give the pages for λk\lambda_kλk​ have to be controlled directly as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞, and this is not a formal limit argument.

A second obstruction is genuinely global. A disk spanning Pˉ\bar PPˉ and transverse to the flow in its interior is easy to produce when sl⁡(Pˉ)=−1\operatorname{sl}(\bar P)=-1sl(Pˉ)=−1. Showing that every trajectory returns to it is the whole content of the theorem, and no local or perturbative argument gives it.

For the formalization, nothing in the proof of sufficiency avoids finite-energy pseudo-holomorphic planes: Fredholm theory, asymptotic analysis, bubbling-off and compactness all enter. None of this exists in Lean.

Formalization scope

  • Ambient space. R4\mathbb{R}^4R4 is Fin 4 → ℝ with coordinates ordered (q1,p1,q2,p2)(q_1,p_1,q_2,p_2)(q1​,p1​,q2​,p2​). λ0\lambda_0λ0​, ω0\omega_0ω0​ and XHX_HXH​ are defined explicitly, with the sign conventions above.
  • Energy surfaces. Star-shaped surfaces are smooth (ContDiff ℝ ⊤) functions HHH with the ray condition and dH(x)x>0dH(x)x>0dH(x)x>0 on H−1(1)H^{-1}(1)H−1(1). The Reeb flow of a general dynamically convex form on S3S^3S3 reduces to this case, up to diffeomorphism and positive time change: such a form is tight (Hofer–Wysocki–Zehnder), and every tight form on S3S^3S3 comes from a star-shaped hypersurface (Eliashberg 1992). That reduction is not part of the targets. Hryniewicz makes the same reduction (§3, first paragraph).
  • Flow. The flow is the flow of XHX_HXH​, not of the Reeb field. All notions in the targets are invariant under positive time change. Periodic orbits are solutions of x˙=XH(x)\dot x=X_H(x)x˙=XH​(x) on all of R\mathbb{R}R. "Prime" means the recorded period is least.
  • Index. μCZ≥3\mu_{CZ}\ge 3μCZ​≥3 is encoded by the winding-interval condition in the global quaternionic frame, with degenerate orbits included. Multiply covered orbits are included in dynamical convexity.
  • Disks. Disks are smooth embeddings of the closed unit disk (injective, with injective differential up to the boundary). The return condition demands hits at arbitrarily large positive and negative times.
  • Ruling out vacuous encodings. A version without the two-sided return condition, with a dynamical-convexity predicate that no surface satisfies, or with sl⁡\operatorname{sl}sl that is not a linking number of the push-off, proves a different theorem. The ellipsoid milestone below is a non-vacuity check on the definitions.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs the following.
    • Reusable beyond this mission: the Conley–Zehnder index of paths in Sp(1)Sp(1)Sp(1), the linking number of disjoint loops in S3S^3S3 (or in R3\mathbb{R}^3R3 after stereographic projection), and global flows of vector fields on compact level sets.
    • Specific to this proof: contact topology of spanning disks (characteristic foliations, elimination of singularities), and finite-energy planes in R×S3\mathbb{R}\times S^3R×S3 with their Fredholm, asymptotic and compactness theory.
  • Contributions welcome. The definition layer, the index and linking-number libraries, the ellipsoid examples, Lemma 2.1, the necessity direction, Lemma 3.12, and any sub-step of the holomorphic-curve argument stated as an independent lemma.

Selected references

  • H. Hofer, K. Wysocki, E. Zehnder, The dynamics on three-dimensional strictly convex energy surfaces, Ann. of Math. 148 (1998), 197–289. https://doi.org/10.2307/120994
  • U. L. Hryniewicz, Fast finite-energy planes in symplectizations and applications, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 364 (2012), 1859–1931. https://arxiv.org/abs/0812.4076
  • U. L. Hryniewicz, P. A. S. Salomão, On the existence of disk-like global sections for Reeb flows on the tight 3-sphere, Duke Math. J. 160 (2011), 415–465. https://arxiv.org/abs/1006.0049
  • U. L. Hryniewicz, Systems of global surfaces of section for dynamically convex Reeb flows on the 3-sphere, J. Symplectic Geom. 12 (2014), 791–862. https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.2077
  • U. L. Hryniewicz, P. A. S. Salomão, Global surfaces of section for Reeb flows in dimension three and beyond, Proc. ICM 2018 (extended version). https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.01925
  • P. Albers, J. W. Fish, U. Frauenfelder, H. Hofer, O. van Koert, Global surfaces of section in the planar restricted 3-body problem, Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 204 (2012), 273–284. https://arxiv.org/abs/1103.3881
  • C. Joung, O. van Koert, Computational symplectic topology and symmetric orbits in the restricted three-body problem, Nonlinearity 38 (2025), 025015. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19159
  • Y. Eliashberg, Contact 3-manifolds twenty years since J. Martinet's work, Ann. Inst. Fourier 42 (1992), 165–192. https://doi.org/10.5802/aif.1288
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Differential GeometryGeometry & TopologySymplectic Geometry·Captain: Mazecto

Gray's Stability Theorem for Contact StructuresResearch Paper

Motivation

A contact structure on a manifold of odd dimension 2k+12k+12k+1 is a field of hyperplanes ξ=ker⁡α\xi=\ker\alphaξ=kerα that is as far from integrable as possible. Contact structures are the odd-dimensional counterpart of symplectic forms. They arise on every star-shaped energy level of a Hamiltonian system, on unit cotangent bundles (geodesic flows), and on links of singularities. They are the setting of Reeb dynamics and of the Weinstein conjecture.

Gray's stability theorem says that on a closed manifold contact structures have no local moduli. If ξt\xi_tξt​, t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], is a smooth family of contact structures, there is an isotopy ψt\psi_tψt​ with Tψt(ξ0)=ξtT\psi_t(\xi_0)=\xi_tTψt​(ξ0​)=ξt​. A contact structure can therefore be deformed only within its isotopy class, and every classification of contact structures (tight versus overtwisted, Eliashberg's classification on S3S^3S3) is a classification up to isotopy because of it.

Timeline.

  • 1959. Gray proves stability with deformation theory in the style of Kodaira–Spencer (Ann. of Math. 69).
  • 1965. Moser proves the analogous stability for volume forms by integrating a time-dependent vector field, now called the Moser trick (Trans. AMS 120).
  • Later. The Moser trick becomes the standard proof of Gray's theorem. Geiges' survey gives a short complete proof (arXiv:math/0307242, Theorem 2.20), which is the source of this mission. Its remarks record the limits of the statement: contact forms are not stable (Remark 2.21(1)), and on the open manifold S1×R2S^1\times\mathbb{R}^2S1×R2 stability fails (Remark 2.21(2), after Eliashberg).

Setting

The closed manifold is a compact submanifold of Euclidean space. Let F:Rn→RcF:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}^cF:Rn→Rc be smooth, let M=F−1(0)M=F^{-1}(0)M=F−1(0) be compact, and assume DF(y)DF(y)DF(y) is surjective for every y∈My\in My∈M. Then MMM is a closed smooth manifold of dimension n−cn-cn−c with tangent spaces

TyM=ker⁡DF(y).T_yM=\ker DF(y).Ty​M=kerDF(y).

A one-form is a smooth map α:Rn→(Rn)∗\alpha:\mathbb{R}^n\to(\mathbb{R}^n)^*α:Rn→(Rn)∗, restricted to TMTMTM. Its exterior derivative is

dαy(u,v)=Dαy(u)(v)−Dαy(v)(u).d\alpha_y(u,v)=D\alpha_y(u)(v)-D\alpha_y(v)(u).dαy​(u,v)=Dαy​(u)(v)−Dαy​(v)(u).
  • Contact form. α\alphaα is a contact form on MMM if at every y∈My\in My∈M the covector αy\alpha_yαy​ is nonzero on TyMT_yMTy​M and dαyd\alpha_ydαy​ is non-degenerate on the hyperplane
ξy=TyM∩ker⁡αy.\xi_y=T_yM\cap\ker\alpha_y.ξy​=Ty​M∩kerαy​.

This is the condition α∧(dα)k≠0\alpha\wedge(d\alpha)^k\neq0α∧(dα)k=0 in the form of Geiges' Remark 2.3. It forces dim⁡M\dim MdimM to be odd. The contact structure is ξ=ker⁡α\xi=\ker\alphaξ=kerα. Contact structures are cooriented throughout, as in Geiges' standing assumption (§2).

  • Smooth family. A family αt\alpha_tαt​ is smooth if (t,y)↦αt(y)(t,y)\mapsto\alpha_t(y)(t,y)↦αt​(y) is smooth. It is a family of contact forms if each αt\alpha_tαt​, t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], is a contact form on MMM.
  • Isotopy. An isotopy of MMM is a smooth map (t,y)↦ψt(y)(t,y)\mapsto\psi_t(y)(t,y)↦ψt​(y) with ψ0=id\psi_0=\mathrm{id}ψ0​=id on MMM, such that each ψt\psi_tψt​, t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], maps MMM bijectively onto MMM with injective differential on TMTMTM, i.e. is a diffeomorphism of MMM.
  • Pull-back. (ψt∗α)y(v)=αψt(y)(Dψt(y) v)(\psi_t^*\alpha)_y(v)=\alpha_{\psi_t(y)}(D\psi_t(y)\,v)(ψt∗​α)y​(v)=αψt​(y)​(Dψt​(y)v).

Formalization targets

Goal: Gray stability (Theorem 2.20)

For every smooth family of contact forms αt\alpha_tαt​, t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], on MMM there is an isotopy ψt\psi_tψt​ of MMM with

Tψt(ξ0)=ξt(t∈[0,1]),ξt=ker⁡αt,T\psi_t(\xi_0)=\xi_t\qquad(t\in[0,1]),\qquad\xi_t=\ker\alpha_t,Tψt​(ξ0​)=ξt​(t∈[0,1]),ξt​=kerαt​,

stated pointwise: for v∈TyMv\in T_yMv∈Ty​M, α0(v)=0\alpha_0(v)=0α0​(v)=0 iff αt(Dψt(y)v)=0\alpha_t(D\psi_t(y)v)=0αt​(Dψt​(y)v)=0.

The goal concerns the contact structures. It fixes no normalization of the forms and no dimension.

Stronger: conformal form

The same isotopy can be chosen with smooth functions λt>0\lambda_t>0λt​>0 such that

ψt∗αt=λt α0on TM.\psi_t^*\alpha_t=\lambda_t\,\alpha_0\quad\text{on }TM.ψt∗​αt​=λt​α0​on TM.

Stronger: stationary points (Remark 2.21(3))

Moreover, every point p∈Mp\in Mp∈M at which α˙t\dot\alpha_tα˙t​ vanishes on TpMT_pMTp​M for all ttt stays fixed: ψt(p)=p\psi_t(p)=pψt​(p)=p.

Significance

The result. Gray stability is the basic rigidity statement of contact topology.

  • It reduces the classification of contact structures to isotopy classes, so invariants of a contact manifold are constant along deformations.
  • It is the first step of many local normal forms: Darboux's theorem and the neighbourhood theorems for Legendrian and transverse submanifolds are proved by applying it, or its proof, near a submanifold (Geiges §2.4–2.5).
  • In Hamiltonian dynamics it identifies the contact structures of a continuous family of star-shaped energy levels. Topological invariants of transverse periodic orbits, such as the self-linking number, are then constant along the family.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and has a short proof on paper. Mathlib, at the revision used here, has no differential forms on manifolds, no Lie derivative, no global flows of time-dependent vector fields on compact submanifolds, and no contact structures. The mission builds these concretely on submanifolds of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn:

  • one-forms, their exterior derivative and pull-back;
  • the derivative of a pulled-back family along a flow (Lemma 2.19);
  • the pointwise linear algebra of a contact form: the Reeb vector, and the unique solution of the Moser equation;
  • global flows of smooth time-dependent vector fields tangent to a compact submanifold.

All of these are reusable for Moser's theorem on volume and symplectic forms and for the Darboux and neighbourhood theorems.

Difficulty

The proof is soft, but two steps are not formal.

  1. Solving for the vector field. Writing ψt\psi_tψt​ as the flow of XtX_tXt​, the equation ψt∗αt=λtα0\psi_t^*\alpha_t=\lambda_t\alpha_0ψt∗​αt​=λt​α0​ becomes
α˙t+iXtdαt=μtαt,Xt∈ξt.\dot\alpha_t+i_{X_t}d\alpha_t=\mu_t\alpha_t,\qquad X_t\in\xi_t.α˙t​+iXt​​dαt​=μt​αt​,Xt​∈ξt​.

It has a unique solution at each point, but only because dαtd\alpha_tdαt​ is non-degenerate on ξt\xi_tξt​ and the Reeb vector spans the kernel of dαt∣TMd\alpha_t|_{TM}dαt​∣TM​. The solution must also depend smoothly on (t,y)(t,y)(t,y) and be tangent to MMM; the ambient form αt\alpha_tαt​ is in general not contact off MMM. 2. Integrating it. The isotopy is the flow of XtX_tXt​, which must exist for all t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1] and stay on MMM. Compactness of MMM enters exactly here. On open manifolds the statement is false (Remark 2.21(2)).

The tempting shortcut of asking for ψt∗αt=α0\psi_t^*\alpha_t=\alpha_0ψt∗​αt​=α0​ does not work. Contact forms themselves are not stable, as the Hopf family on S3S^3S3 shows (Remark 2.21(1)), and the conformal factor λt\lambda_tλt​ cannot be dropped.

Formalization scope

  • Representation.
    • Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is Fin n → ℝ; MMM is a compact regular level set F−1(0)F^{-1}(0)F−1(0) of a smooth F:Rn→RcF:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}^cF:Rn→Rc.
    • One-forms are maps Rn→(Rn→LR)\mathbb{R}^n\to(\mathbb{R}^n\to_L\mathbb{R})Rn→(Rn→L​R), smooth families are jointly smooth in (t,y)(t,y)(t,y) on R×Rn\mathbb{R}\times\mathbb{R}^nR×Rn, and dαd\alphadα is the antisymmetrized derivative.
    • An isotopy is a jointly smooth ψ:R×Rn→Rn\psi:\mathbb{R}\times\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}^nψ:R×Rn→Rn that restricts, for t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], to diffeomorphisms of MMM.
  • Committed conventions.
    • Contact structures are cooriented, i.e. given by global contact forms.
    • The contact condition is the non-degeneracy of dαd\alphadα on ξ\xiξ (Remark 2.3), not a wedge power.
    • Only the restrictions to TMTMTM and the values for t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1] matter.
  • Scope relative to the source. Every closed manifold embeds in some Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, but not every closed manifold is a regular level set, since that requires a trivial normal bundle. The targets cover regular level sets, including all spheres and all star-shaped energy levels. The abstract version on any closed manifold is outside the targets until Mathlib has differential forms on manifolds.
  • Ruling out vacuous encodings. The isotopy must start at the identity on MMM, map MMM onto MMM for every t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1], and be a diffeomorphism there. Dropping any of these makes the goal trivial; for instance, the constant isotopy satisfies the goal whenever all ξt\xi_tξt​ agree. The Hopf family milestone checks that the contact condition is satisfiable and that the conformal factor is necessary.
  • Contributions welcome. The linear-algebra milestones (Reeb vector, Moser equation), Lemma 2.19, global flows on compact level sets, and the Hopf-family example. Moser's theorem for volume forms would be a natural sibling result built on the same infrastructure.

Selected references

  • J. W. Gray, Some global properties of contact structures, Ann. of Math. 69 (1959), 421–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1970192
  • H. Geiges, Contact geometry, in Handbook of Differential Geometry, Vol. II, Elsevier (2006), 315–382; §2.2, Lemma 2.19, Theorem 2.20, Remark 2.21. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0307242
  • H. Geiges, An Introduction to Contact Topology, Cambridge Stud. Adv. Math. 109, Cambridge Univ. Press (2008), §2.2. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511611438
  • J. Moser, On the volume elements on a manifold, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 120 (1965), 286–294. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1965-0182927-5
  • Y. Eliashberg, Contact 3-manifolds twenty years since J. Martinet's work, Ann. Inst. Fourier 42 (1992), 165–192. https://doi.org/10.5802/aif.1288
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CombinatoricsDiscrete GeometryGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Diameter of Polyhedra: Limits of Abstraction 1: The Base Abstraction in Dimension n/4 with n Facets Has Diameter Ω(n²/log n)Research Paper

Motivation

Whether the diameter of a polyhedron is bounded by a polynomial in its number of facets is one of the central open questions of convex geometry, and it bears directly on linear programming: the diameter of the graph of a polyhedron is a lower bound on the number of pivots of any simplex method that moves along edges. Write △u(d,n)\triangle_u(d,n)△u​(d,n) for the largest diameter of a ddd-dimensional polyhedron with nnn facets. The best known bounds are

n−d+⌊d/5⌋  ≤  △u(d,n)  ≤  n1+log⁡d,n - d + \lfloor d/5 \rfloor \;\le\; \triangle_u(d,n) \;\le\; n^{1+\log d},n−d+⌊d/5⌋≤△u​(d,n)≤n1+logd,

due to Klee and Walkup (1967) and Kalai and Kleitman (1992), and the gap between them has stood for decades.

A recurring approach is to isolate a few purely combinatorial properties of polyhedra and to prove bounds for every object having them. Eisenbrand, Hähnle, Razborov and Rothvoß (2010) proposed a base abstraction defined by a single property, shared by all abstractions from which earlier bounds were derived. They showed that the known upper bounds survive in it, and, as their main result, that it admits almost-quadratic diameter. This mission formalizes that lower bound.

Timeline.

  • 1967: Klee and Walkup, lower bound n−d+⌊d/5⌋n-d+\lfloor d/5\rfloorn−d+⌊d/5⌋ for unbounded polyhedra.
  • 1970: Larman, △u(d,n)≤2d−1n\triangle_u(d,n) \le 2^{d-1} n△u​(d,n)≤2d−1n (linear in fixed dimension).
  • 1974: Adler, Dantzig and Murty study abstract polytopes and their diameters.
  • 1992: Kalai and Kleitman, the quasi-polynomial bound n1+log⁡dn^{1+\log d}n1+logd.
  • 2010: Eisenbrand, Hähnle, Razborov and Rothvoß, the base abstraction; both upper bounds hold in it, and its diameter is Ω(n2/log⁡n)\Omega(n^2/\log n)Ω(n2/logn) in dimension n/4n/4n/4.
  • 2012: Santos disproves the Hirsch conjecture for polytopes; the polynomial question remains open.

Setting

Let [n]={1,…,n}[n] = \{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n} and let ([n]d)\binom{[n]}{d}(d[n]​) be the family of its ddd-element subsets. Consider a graph GGG whose vertex set VVV is a nonempty subfamily of ([n]d)\binom{[n]}{d}(d[n]​). The graph satisfies condition i) if

for each u,v∈Vu, v \in Vu,v∈V there exists a path connecting uuu and vvv whose intermediate vertices all contain u∩vu \cap vu∩v.

The base abstraction Bd,n\mathcal B_{d,n}Bd,n​ is the class of all such graphs; ddd is called the dimension and nnn the number of facets. Write distG(u,v)\mathrm{dist}_G(u,v)distG​(u,v) for the length of a shortest uuu–vvv path, and

D(d,n)=max⁡{distG(u,v):G∈Bd,n, u,v∈V(G)}.D(d,n) = \max\{\mathrm{dist}_G(u,v) : G \in \mathcal B_{d,n},\ u, v \in V(G)\}.D(d,n)=max{distG​(u,v):G∈Bd,n​, u,v∈V(G)}.

The geometry behind the definition: in a non-degenerate polyhedron every vertex lies on exactly ddd facets, so labelling vertices by their facets gives distinct ddd-subsets of [n][n][n]; and two vertices can be joined without leaving the smallest face containing both, i.e. through vertices lying on every facet common to uuu and vvv. Hence △u(d,n)≤D(d,n)\triangle_u(d,n) \le D(d,n)△u​(d,n)≤D(d,n) (the subject of a separate mission of this series).

In the Lean development, EHRR10.LowerBound.CondI V G is condition i), and EHRR10.LowerBound.InB d n V G says that VVV is nonempty, all its members have ddd elements, and condition i) holds.

Formalization targets

Goal: almost-quadratic diameter in dimension n/4n/4n/4

D(n/4, n)=Ω ⁣(n2log⁡n).D(n/4,\, n) = \Omega\!\left(\frac{n^2}{\log n}\right).D(n/4,n)=Ω(lognn2​).

Explicitly, there are c>0c > 0c>0 and NNN such that for every n≥Nn \ge Nn≥N with 4∣n4 \mid n4∣n there is a graph G∈Bn/4, nG \in \mathcal B_{n/4,\,n}G∈Bn/4,n​ and two vertices u,vu, vu,v of GGG with distG(u,v)≥c n2/log⁡n\mathrm{dist}_G(u,v) \ge c\, n^2/\log ndistG​(u,v)≥cn2/logn. The constants ccc and NNN are left unfixed, so the goal survives any improvement in the constant.

There are no milestones: the source is an extended abstract that states the result without a proof and names no intermediate lemma.

Significance

The result. Since △u(d,n)≤D(d,n)\triangle_u(d,n) \le D(d,n)△u​(d,n)≤D(d,n), any proof of a bound on DDD bounds the diameter of all non-degenerate polyhedra. The paper shows that the Kalai–Kleitman and Larman bounds are of this kind. The lower bound shows the limits of the approach: an argument that uses only condition i) cannot prove a linear (Hirsch-type) bound, because D(n/4,n)D(n/4,n)D(n/4,n) grows almost quadratically in nnn. Any proof of a linear bound must use further geometric properties of polyhedra. A polynomial, even quadratic, upper bound for DDD is not excluded by the result.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the literature (Math. Oper. Res. 35 (2010) 786–794); it has no machine-checked proof. A formal proof requires an explicit combinatorial construction of graphs in the base abstraction with large diameter and a probabilistic existence argument, neither of which is currently on the platform. The platform's Hirsch campaign has the same abstraction in its layer-family form (Hirsch_clf, whose description mentions the Ω(n2/log⁡n)\Omega(n^2/\log n)Ω(n2/logn) families in prose) and the proved upper bound Hirsch.clf_saturated_quadratic_bound, L≤d(n−d)L \le d(n-d)L≤d(n−d), on a subclass that contains the constructions of this paper; neither states the lower bound.

Difficulty

A long path through all of ([n]d)\binom{[n]}{d}(d[n]​) has exponential length but violates condition i): two vertices of the path generally share elements that some intermediate vertex lacks. Condition i) must hold for every pair of vertices simultaneously, which forces the vertices containing any fixed set to induce a connected subgraph. Building a long graph means arranging many ddd-sets so that each of these exponentially many connectivity constraints holds at once while the graph distance between two vertices stays large. The authors announce that their construction relies on disjoint covering designs, and that the existence of such designs with the required parameters is obtained from the Lovász Local Lemma.

Formalization scope

  • [n][n][n] is Fin n; vertices are the ddd-sets themselves, V : Finset (Finset (Fin n)) and G : SimpleGraph V. Distinct vertices carry distinct labels.
  • Condition i) is stated with walks, and requires every vertex of the walk (endpoints included, which is automatic) to contain u∩vu \cap vu∩v. A walk contains a path on a subset of its vertices, so this is the page's condition.
  • "Connected" is encoded as V≠∅V \ne \emptysetV=∅; connectivity follows from condition i).
  • The page writes D(n/4,n)D(n/4,n)D(n/4,n) without rounding; the goal is read literally: 4∣n4 \mid n4∣n and dimension exactly n/4n/4n/4.
  • Ω(⋅)\Omega(\cdot)Ω(⋅) is made explicit as ∃c>0,∃N,∀n≥N\exists c > 0, \exists N, \forall n \ge N∃c>0,∃N,∀n≥N. The logarithm is natural (Real.log); the base only rescales ccc.
  • "D(n/4,n)≥BD(n/4,n) \ge BD(n/4,n)≥B" is stated as the existence of one graph in the class with two vertices at SimpleGraph.dist at least BBB; DDD is not defined as a supremum, so no junk value enters. SimpleGraph.dist returns 000 for unreachable pairs, which could only make the statement harder.
  • Only the lower half of Ω\OmegaΩ is claimed, as on the page.

The goal cannot be trivialized by a non-injective labelling (vertices are the sets), by checking condition i) only on adjacent pairs (it is required for all pairs, with u∩vu\cap vu∩v kept along the whole walk), or by a zero constant (c>0c > 0c>0 is required).

Infrastructure that a solution needs and that is reusable beyond this mission: covering designs and disjoint covering designs over Finset (Fin n), the Lovász Local Lemma (posed on the platform as AppliedComb.ManyFaces.local_lemma_symmetric), and a toolkit for proving condition i) for graphs assembled from blocks. Contributions of any of these as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • F. Eisenbrand, N. Hähnle, A. Razborov, T. Rothvoß, Diameter of Polyhedra: Limits of Abstraction, Dagstuhl Seminar Proceedings 10211 (Flexible Network Design), 2010 (the extended abstract this mission cites). http://drops.dagstuhl.de/opus/volltexte/2010/2724
  • F. Eisenbrand, N. Hähnle, A. Razborov, T. Rothvoß, Diameter of Polyhedra: Limits of Abstraction, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(4), 786–794, 2010 (full proofs). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0470
  • G. Kalai, D. J. Kleitman, A quasi-polynomial bound for the diameter of graphs of polyhedra, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 26(2), 315–316, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0273-0979-1992-00285-9
  • D. G. Larman, Paths on polytopes, Proc. London Math. Soc. 20(3), 161–178, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1112/plms/s3-20.1.161
  • V. Klee, D. W. Walkup, The d-step conjecture for polyhedra of dimension d < 6, Acta Math. 117, 53–78, 1967. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02395040
  • F. Santos, A counterexample to the Hirsch conjecture, Annals of Mathematics 176(1), 383–412, 2012. https://doi.org/10.4007/annals.2012.176.1.7
  • N. Alon, J. Spencer, The Probabilistic Method, 3rd ed., Wiley, 2008 (Lovász Local Lemma).
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